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Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on October 12, 2010

Hurricane warnings are flying along the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula for Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of this very active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. The first advisory for Paula was issued at 5pm EDT yesterday, and Paula strengthened into a hurricane just twelve hours later, at 5am EDT this morning. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. The final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) stores points every six hours--at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. It is likely that Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression at 12 UTC (8am EDT) or 18Z (2pm EDT) yesterday, 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Even though Paula met the criteria for being named a tropical depression yesterday morning, NHC elected not to do so, since it was unclear whether or not passage over land would disrupt the nascent tropical depression (a new tropical depression must demonstrate some staying power before it will get recognized, typically.) In the final HURDAT data base, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.


Figure 1. Microwave image of Paula taken at 6:35am EDT 10/12/10 shows that Paula is a small hurricane, with heavy rains confined to a small area near the center. Though the images are not radar images, one can think of these images as similar to having a radar in space that can provide images of where heavy rain is occurring. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Fortunately for Mexico, Paula has not been able to maintain its rapid intensification rate. Satellite intensity estimates show that Paula has leveled off in intensity this morning. Microwave satellite images (Figure 1) and traditional satellite imagery reveal that Paula is small hurricane with a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support further development, but moderate wind shear of 15 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are hampering Paula's intensification. Radar from Belize and Cancun shows that Paula's outer spiral bands are still well offshore. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT this afternoon; there has been no airplane in the storm since about 4am this morning.


Figure 2. Total accumulated rainfall for the 5.25 day period beginning at 2am EDT today, October 12, 2010, as predicted by the 2am EDT runs of the HWRF model (top) and GFDL model (bottom.) The HWRF model predicts Paula will stay trapped in the Western Caribbean, causing very high rainfall totals. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Forecast for Paula
Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out from Paula's center about 60 miles to the north, and are forecast to expand to 100 miles by early Wednesday morning. Paula's current northwest motion of 10 mph means that tropical storm force winds should reach the coast of Mexico near Cozumel between 8pm - 2am local time tonight. A good way to visualize this is to use our wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on, and click on the "forecast" and "wind radius" boxes. Hurricane force winds extend out just ten miles from the center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC predicts a 91% chance that Cozumel will receive tropical storm force winds, and a 31% chance of getting hurricane force winds of 74+ mph. The main threat from the storm will be heavy rain, particularly over western Cuba and the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, if Paula stalls as expected and wanders in the region for many days. Rainfall forecasts from the HWRF and GFDL models (Figure 2) suggest that Paula will be capable of dumping more than a foot of rain in isolated regions over the next five days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, tonight through the end of the week. This high shear, combined with the dry atmosphere to the north of Paula, should keep the hurricane from becoming a major hurricane. NHC is giving Paula just a 6% chance of becoming a major hurricane. The shear and dry air may even weaken the storm below hurricane strength later this week, as suggested by most of the intensity forecast models. Paula is a small storm, so is fairly vulnerable to shear and dry air.

There is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse on Wednesday, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate. Finally, if Paula grows large enough and strong enough, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Friday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Saturday morning. NHC is making the reasonable forecast of sticking with what the majority of models are saying, but residents of South Florida, Central Cuba, and the Bahamas should be prepared for Paula to come their way as a strong tropical storm.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I wonder how fast this was moving...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
cat5.The only speeding ticket I ever got was the stretch between Georgetown and North Charleston,, I swear, I was only doiny 45 mph

Once outside of larger metro area, it's can be tricky. Especially out in Williamsburg County or up by Lake Moltrie.
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder how fast this was moving...
looks like about 160 to 165 mph
Florida-Sept-1945...
Quoting oracle28:


The people that laughed at you said they were crazy? I wouldn't worry about it too much, then.


You gotta admit this guy comes up with funny ones every now and then!
Quoting aprinz1979:


You gotta admit this guy comes up with funny ones every now and then!


no oracle doesnt know how to read

the comment clearly states, that those who laughed at the prediction also said those people who thought it would be a CAT 3 were crazy
509. myway
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder how fast this was moving...


165
Oh my goodness.I was near Lake Moultrie a few months ago......I stayed at the Hampton Inn and drove over to Monck's Corner just to look around. I felt like I was in the movie "Deliverance" Oh My God.... What a flashbach into the 60's'... Then Went to a place called Santee........Made me fell 80 years old... There was this guy with a catfish that had to weight over 3 tons. I got in my car and ran like the wind...,Thank goodness for Bud Light Lime
hummm. Models are trending Nward a tad.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like about 160 to 165 mph
It is a good thing that it hit a tree and not a house or a human...This is in Galveston,TX-1900..
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder how fast this was moving...


Anyone thinking about going out in a hurricane should first look at this picture.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


no oracle doesnt know how to read

the comment clearly states, that those who laughed at the prediction also said those people who thought it would be a CAT 3 were crazy


Seal says we're never gonna survive unless we get a little crazy, so maybe they're just trying to make it through the Cat 3 intact.
While shear and dry air are present, there will be NO big Cat.... after all, better for Cuba & S FL

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh my goodness.I was near Lake Moultrie a few months ago......I stayed at the Hampton Inn in Summerville and drove over to Monck's Corner just to look around. I felt like I was in the movie "Deliverance" Oh My God.... What a flashback into the 60's'... Then went to a place called Santee........Made me feel 80 years old... There was this guy with a catfish that had to weight over 3 tons. I got in my car and ran like the wind...,Thank goodness for Bud Light Lime
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
hummm. Models are trending Nward a tad.



XTRP has shifted East. Is New Orleans going to be on the dirty side of this storm?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh my goodness.I was near Lake Moultrie a few months ago......I stayed at the Hampton Inn and drove over to Monck's Corner just to look around. I felt like I was in the movie "Deliverance" Oh My God.... What a flashbach into the 60's'... Then Went to a place called Santee........Made me fell 80 years old... There was this guy with a catfish that had to weight over 3 tons. I got in my car and ran like the wind...,Thank goodness for Bud Light Lime

I would definitely say then with 100% certainly that you were there. LOL

Great story though, I'm LMAO. But so true.
I think Paula will be the greatest threat to the US since Earl, and this one looks like it may actually make landfall on US soil, not as a crappy tropical [thunder]storm.
This is in Rhode Island..1938 or 1954..Not sure which.. Notice the hurricane flags ripped to shreds..
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder how fast this was moving...


Looking at the picture, I'd say the tree was moving at 0 mph.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Why do all of these have tomorrow's date on them?
Quoting oracle28:


Looking at the picture, I'd say the tree was moving at 0 mph.
lol
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder how fast this was moving...


SW 187th Avenue, Redland, FL after Hurricane Andrew
Quoting oracle28:


XTRP has shifted East. Is New Orleans going to be on the dirty side of this storm?


XTRP isn't a model, it's just a straight line projection, and it gives us an idea what direction the storm is currently moving.
Quoting hydrus:
Hurricane Carol.Aug-1954..Those waves are going through the 2nd story windows.
Hydrus, where is the location?
HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (3degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of (7.3degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~5mph(~8km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~13.3mph(~21.5km/h)
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A
H.Paula
12Oct 09amGMT - - 17.6n85.2w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3
12Oct 12pmGMT - - 18.1n85.4w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3A
12Oct 03pmGMT - - 18.6n85.7w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#4
Category2
12Oct 06pmGMT - - 18.8n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#5

Copy &paste 15.7n83.7w, 16.0n84.0w, 16.4n84.3w, 16.8n84.6w, 17.2n84.9w-17.6n85.2w, 17.6n85.2w-18.1n85.4w, 18.1n85.4w-18.6n85.7w, 18.6n85.7w-18.8n85.8w, pnd, cun, mzo, 18.8n85.8w-20.91n86.87w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~31 hours from now to Caracol,QuintanaRoo,Mexico

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Quoting sunlinepr:
While shear and dry air are present, there will be NO big Cat.... after all, better for Cuba & S FL



Sunline,

I don't know much about this but I am confused. Everybody is saying that Paula is strengthening right now. when do you foresee that to stop and start weakening?

TRACK ONLY reference. Pretty similar for first four points. Conditions are different, as always.



New England 1938...
Quoting aprinz1979:


Sunline,

I don't know much about this but I am confused. Everybody is saying that Paula is strengthening right now. when do you foresee that to stop and start weakening?



36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 4:20 AM GMT on October 12, 2010
she tracks n till isle of youth then across west cuba ne ward off se fla coast crossing over the bahamas and out to sea cat 3 south of youth then rapid weakening as it traverses cuba and onward
Quoting kwgirl:
Hydrus, where is the location?
Location: Old Lyme, Connecticut
Photo Date: August 31, 1954
Photographer: American Red Cross
Quoting oracle28:


XTRP has shifted East. Is New Orleans going to be on the dirty side of this storm?


Lol......he's been doing this all day and you guys keep falling for it. Really liked the one about the tree moving at 0 mph. LOL
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/
I will not post for the 713 time about what XTRP is....Ok, maybe one more time..Nope, I won't do it
Heart-wrenching photo...Thousands buried in the wreckage...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I will not post for the 713 time about what XTRP is....Ok, maybe one more time..Nope, I won't do it

Fight the urge!
Where oh where are the chilling north winds of fall when you need them to kill the warm waters in the northern GOM to stop any possible threat from a TC? Record high temperatures in the CONUS yesterday outnumbered record lows 251 to 1.

Ouch.
Quoting Seastep:
TRACK ONLY reference. Pretty similar for first four points. Conditions are different, as always.



That map at the top of your post is a little unsettling to me...
Making another center pass

18:53:00Z 18.883N 86.000W

70 knots
(~ 80.5 mph)
Living in Palm Beach county for nearly 27 years now, does anyone else get chills, and feel squeesy in the tummy when hurricane season is upon us? I need to leave, But..I grew up in Xenia Ohio and experienced a terrible tornado April 3, 1974... I tell my freinds, "Don't follow me"
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Living in Palm Beach county for nearly 27 years now, does anyone else get chills, and feel squeesy in the tummy when hurricane season is upon us? I need to leave, But..I grew up in Xenia Ohio and experienced a terrible tornado April 3, 1974... I tell my freinds, "Don't follow me"


From Sept1 to Oct31st
dont know if u guys have noticed most models are now in moslty agreementt SFL watch out
I absolutely hate it CyclonicVogage
Sorry for the spelling
Quoting chrisdscane:
dont know if u guys have noticed most models are now in moslty agreementt SFL watch out


Being in S Florida not pretty these new models. How about we go to earlier versions without S fla in them?
An Early Signal Service weather map from September 1, 1872..
Quoting Its2Humid:


Being in S Florida not pretty these new models. How about we go to earlier versions without S fla in them?


most have it going south of us but its still very close
Quoting hydrus:
An Early Signal Service weather map from September 1, 1872..


Hey, hydrus, I still have the original. Like the images you've been posting, by the way.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I absolutely hate it CyclonicVogage
You went through the Xenia Tornado..That was one of the strongest ever ...
It's the Fruit Loop of doom...

Quoting oracle28:


XTRP has shifted East. Is New Orleans going to be on the dirty side of this storm?
I see you have British humor lol
Only seeing CAT 1 winds out there. I wonder how reliable the 100/105 mph measurment was ?

20 mph is a significant drop off in such a short period of time.

The radar of La Bajada in Pinar del Rio have not seen the eye of Paula, but displays the spiral band approaching Cuba.
Should have a new vortex soon

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 18.93N 85.9W
Splash Time: 18:56Z
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
I see you have British humor lol


yea the kind that isn't funny
Quoting kmanislander:
Only seeing CAT 1 winds out there. I wonder how reliable the 100/105 mph measurment was ?

20 mph is a significant drop off in such a short period of time.




Winds looked that of a CAT1 and more inline with the current pressure.
Quoting kmanislander:
Only seeing CAT 1 winds out there. I wonder how reliable the 100/105 mph measurment was ?

20 mph is a significant drop off in such a short period of time.



Yeah, I noticed that too. Thinking they jumped the gun on the CAT 2.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Where oh where are the chilling north winds of fall when you need them to kill the warm waters in the northern GOM to stop any possible threat from a TC? Record high temperatures in the CONUS yesterday outnumbered record lows 251 to 1.

Ouch.


Neo, look at the difference man.
2009:


2010:
This is the highest I seen.


72 knots
(~ 82.8 mph)
Quoting FLdewey:
It's the Fruit Loop of doom...



Well then I am going to keep eating my Lucky Charm's so to keep from getting the Captin Crunch! :)
Quoting kmanislander:
Only seeing CAT 1 winds out there. I wonder how reliable the 100/105 mph measurment was ?

20 mph is a significant drop off in such a short period of time.



No pressure drop from the first vortex, either.
GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:11Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 18:54:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°55'N 85°55'W (18.9167N 85.9167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (255 km) to the E (79°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,265m (4,150ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WSW (245°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 342° at 69kts (From the NNW at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:57:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:57:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE SHAPE CLOSER TO SQUARE THAN CIRCULAR
567. MahFL
100 MPH !!!!
late season storms sometimes spin up better in the morning early afternoon doubt if paula will become a major but it could be close
Quoting hydrus:
An Early Signal Service weather map from September 1, 1872..


There's a NOAA site that has every weather map ever published from 1871 on.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, hydrus, I still have the original. Like the images you've been posting, by the way.
Gracias. I like to post them..They are cool to look at, and educational too... Here is how they posted the hurricane warnings on the Florida west coast...This pic from the 30,s..
A square eye ??

No wonder the winds came down. Ever try to drive a car with square tires ?.
Dynamic Models.

Quoting kmanislander:
Only seeing CAT 1 winds out there. I wonder how reliable the 100/105 mph measurment was ?

20 mph is a significant drop off in such a short period of time.



yes. but flight level winds continue to increase, not mixing well down to the surface yet.

Time: 18:57:00Z
Coordinates: 19.0N 85.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.9 mb (~ 24.92 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,407 meters (~ 4,616 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 993.6 mb (~ 29.34 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 136° at 90 knots (From the SE at ~ 103.5 mph)
Air Temp: 14.6°C* (~ 58.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 94 knots (~ 108.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 72 knots (~ 82.8 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

highest yet
This was Galveston after the 1900
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Living in Palm Beach county for nearly 27 years now, does anyone else get chills, and feel squeesy in the tummy when hurricane season is upon us? I need to leave, But..I grew up in Xenia Ohio and experienced a terrible tornado April 3, 1974... I tell my freinds, "Don't follow me"


Me! North Palm 15 yrs......stomach turned and did a flip today over Paula.....Wilma still haunts me - worst one for me. Made Franny & Jeanne a walk in the park. Grew up in NY - Yonkers. Don't remember the year or the named storm, it was the ealry 60's - and I remember a huge sailboat up a tree on City Island.
hydrus.I did.I was a very young girl in school. I will never forget it. April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 pm. Luckily school was out but many students and teachers were still in the high school. The only school left standing was my grade school. 35 people killed. Many friends. A few were killed at the local A&W Root Beer stand. I was slightly injured but not too bad. I walked around like hundreds of others trying to get home. A train had flipped over on US35 (Main St.) blocking fire trucks and ambulances.. Total panic. I finally got to my parents hom on North West st. near the fairgrounds. They were all ok, but it was many days until I found out if my friends were ok. That was my first experience with the death of friends.I will never forget that day.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yes. but flight level winds continue to increase, not mixing well down to the surface yet.

Time: 18:57:00Z
Coordinates: 19.0N 85.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.9 mb (~ 24.92 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,407 meters (~ 4,616 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 993.6 mb (~ 29.34 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 136° at 90 knots (From the SE at ~ 103.5 mph)
Air Temp: 14.6°C* (~ 58.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 94 knots (~ 108.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 72 knots (~ 82.8 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

highest yet


Could be but this is the most ragged CAT 2 I have seen in a long time. Certainly the satellite presentation does not support a CAT 2 classification nor do current winds.
579. MahFL
A square eye, lol, now I have heard it all.
Models Aiming at South Florida.

Quoting Grothar:
Dynamic Models.




They're creeping Grother, WHAT DID YOU DO TO THEM?
Quoting MahFL:
A square eye, lol, now I have heard it all.


You certainly wouldn't want to get caught in the sharp corners of the eyewall LOL
Signal Tower for Storm Warning Flags used by day, lanterns by night. Used to warn mariners : "The Boy and the U.S. Weather Men", 1917
763

URNT12 KNHC 121911

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010

A. 12/18:54:40Z

B. 18 deg 55 min N

085 deg 55 min W

C. 850 mb 1265 m

D. 70 kt

E. 245 deg 5 nm

F. 342 deg 69 kt

G. 242 deg 7 nm

H. 981 mb

I. 18 C / 1517 m

J. 23 C / 1533 m

K. 12 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C12

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0318A PAULA OB 16

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:57:00Z

EYE SHAPE CLOSER TO SQUARE THAN CIRCULAR

;
Quoting kmanislander:
A square eye ??

No wonder the winds came down. Ever try to drive a car with square tires ?.


Somewhere, down in Bedrock.


lol
Models Aiming at S.FLA

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


There's a NOAA site that has every weather map ever published from 1871 on.


Do you happen to have the link?
Quoting npalmwatcher:


Me! North Palm 15 yrs......stomach turned and did a flip today over Paula.....Wilma still haunts me - worst one for me. Made Franny & Jeanne a walk in the park. Grew up in NY - Yonkers. Don't remember the year or the named storm, it was the ealry 60's - and I remember a huge sailboat up a tree on City Island.

25 years in Palm Beach County and Wilma was worsed one I experienced. But this is no Wilma...Its probably going to track south of us and it will be shredded instead of strengthening if is come close to us. IMO
Dropsonde winds at sea surface were 989mb (29.21 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 95° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph) so not that far off cat 2. It's probably a 95mph hurricane at the moment, so cat1/2. The small size will cause quick intensity fluctuations.
NHC is making the reasonable forecast of sticking with what the majority of models are saying, but residents of South Florida, Central Cuba, and the Bahamas should be prepared for Paula to come their way as a strong tropical storm.

Jeff Masters

Link mabe 180 mph
Quoting cat5hurricane:

True....but I think with a system this tiny, it could be right. Afterall, wasn't massive Igor only a two with like a 960mb something pressure for a while.


Alex was a cat 2 with 947mb...
Microwave structure looks less impressive than earlier:

jonelu......The back half of Wilma scared the crap out of me.I heard noises that I had never heard before
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Somewhere, down in Bedrock.


lol


Fred or Wilma would have been great names for this hurricane LOL

Well, maybe not Wilma !
Talking about Galveston: Effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


There's a NOAA site that has every weather map ever published from 1871 on.
I will check it out..:) This looks rather vicious...Hurricane eye wall.. Which storm, UNK..
Quoting FFtrombi:
Dropsonde winds at sea surface were 989mb (29.21 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 95° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph) so not that far off cat 2. It's probably a 95mph hurricane at the moment, so cat1/2. The small size will cause quick intensity fluctuations.
maybe its a cat 1 3/4
Quoting Inactivity:


Alex was a cat 2 with 947mb...

Perfect example. Thank you.
The models are responding to the intensity in the move to a more Northerly track off to the ENE. If the hurricane ramps down as fast as it ramped up the models will swing South again.
Screaming winds over the Pacific in 1979..
Quoting Inactivity:


Alex was a cat 2 with 947mb...



Alex would have become a much stronger hurricane had he more time over water to allow his winds to catch up with the pressure.
Quoting kmanislander:
The models are responding to the intensity in the move to a more Northerly track off to the ENE. If the hurricane ramps down as fast as it ramped up the models will swing South again.
I agree
Sea surface as seen from NOAA P-3 at 5000 feet during Hurricane Hugo. Seas were driven by over 100-knot winds and were 60-80 feet high.
Quoting kmanislander:
The models are responding to the intensity in the move to a more Northerly track off to the ENE. If the hurricane ramps down as fast as it ramped up the models will swing South again.


thx good piont i just dont see it ramping down rofl
Quoting MahFL:
A square eye, lol, now I have heard it all.


Maybe it's has one more side and is pentagonal? j/k... I think. :/

Isabel:



Link
602. kmanislander 7:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2010
The models are responding to the intensity in the move to a more Northerly track off to the ENE. If the hurricane ramps down as fast as it ramped up the models will swing South again.



That is excactly what is happening with the models at this time.....
Now that Paula is a distinguished strong Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane) there is inevitably a more poleward response in the computer models. The speed of Paula is very critical also, moreso, than her intensity, IMO, at this time. The quicker and further she can get Northward before the trough influence, or lack of, is so crucial. The faster she moves, the more of a threat to South Florida, So, the next 12 hours are going to be very important to watch in regards to her speed....
Quoting sunlinepr:
Talking about Galveston: Effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas
Amazing how that one huge building survived almost intact, while every other is demolished...Obviously superior construction was a player.. Jeanne in 04, smack dab over Florida.. That was a really bad day..
Quoting RadarRich:
602. kmanislander 7:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2010
The models are responding to the intensity in the move to a more Northerly track off to the ENE. If the hurricane ramps down as fast as it ramped up the models will swing South again.



That is excactly what is happening with the models at this time.....
Now that Paula is a distinguished strong Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane) there is inevitably a more poleward response in the computer models. The speed of Paula is very critical also, moreso, than her intensity, IMO, at this time. The quicker and further she can get Northward before the trough influence, or lack of, is so crucial. The faster she moves, the more of a threat to South Florida, So, the next 12 hours are going to be very important to watch in regards to her speed....


What speed would it have to maintain to get there in time. 10mph or faster.
NEW BLOG.....if anybody cares
Quoting MahFL:
A square eye, lol, now I have heard it all.


Or, how about a rectangle.

Ivan from the ISS:

Yahoo post:


Paula becomes Cat. 2 hurricane, threatens Cancun

NOAA CLOUDS AP – This NOAA satellite image taken Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 1:00 a.m. EDT shows Tropical Storm Paula …


CANCUN, Mexico – A strengthening Hurricane Paula roared toward Mexico's resort-dotted Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.

The hurricane smashed homes and forced schools to cancel classes in Honduras early Tuesday, then grew into a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 100 miles per hour (160 kph) on it way to the Yucatan, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
Regular lurker, but have a quick question with Paula that I'm not figuring out just yet. Looking at the computer models there's a split between a NE track and a circular stall track once she makes her turn. However, looking at the Ensemble models, which as I understand are more sophisticated, they are mostly in concensus on the NE track either through the Florida straights or toward South Florida. Is this just a result of the Ensemble tracks being more sophisticated and reflecting the NE trend based on her strengthening or should more credence be given to the Ensembles at this point compared to the computers?

I know there's still a ton of uncertainty and we'll know more in the next 24-48 hours but I'm trying to understand why the computer models are significantly more variable compared to the ensemble members which seem to be more in concensus.
Quoting Seastep:


Or, how about a rectangle.

Ivan from the ISS:



Now that looks like a buzz saw.
Isabel - Annular hurricane

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft flying into the hurricane launched a dropsonde which measured an instantaneous wind speed of 233 mph (375 km/h), the strongest instantaneous wind speed recorded in an Atlantic hurricane.[

Quoting Seastep:


Maybe it's has one more side and is pentagonal? j/k... I think. :/

Isabel:



Link
Some annular Hurricanes


Luis


Isabel


Edouard


Alberto


Daniel (Pacific)
test