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Hurricane Paloma slowly strengthing as it approaches Grand Cayman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:00 PM GMT on November 07, 2008

Hurricane Paloma is slowly strengthening. Satellite estimates of Paloma's strength suggest top winds have increased to 85 mph, making it a strong Category 1 hurricane. Visible satellite images show that Paloma continues to be well organized, and it appears an eye is ready to pop out. We haven't had a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the eye since 3:39 am EST when a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a 982 mb pressure and 80 mph winds, so we don't know the strength of Paloma very well. The Hurricane Hunters noticed that the eyewall had a gap in its west side (Figure 1). This lack of a complete eyewall has slowed down Paloma's intensification, and is probably due to the 10-15 knots of wind shear currently impacting the storm.

Winds at the Grand Cayman airport were 33 mph, gusting to 47 mph at 10 am EST this morning, and heavy rain was falling. Over the past four days, about 4-5 inches of rain has fallen on Grand Cayman, with about 1.5" falling between midnight and 8 am today.

From wunderground member XL this morning:
I live about 100 yards from the sea on the northwest point of Grand Cayman. It is getting quite rough here now. It's been raining non stop for hours and is pretty windy. The sea is also getting quite rough with big swells. Hubby has just driven into work and says flooding of roadways is evident already.


Figure 1. Microwave image of Paloma at 1:57 am EST Friday November 7, 2008.The eyewall has a gap on the northwest side.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear has increased to a moderate 10-15 knots, and is expected to slowly increase to 20 knots Friday night and above 30 knots on Saturday morning. Recent infrared imagery shows that the cloud tops have not cooled in recent hours, so no rapid intensification is likely in the short term. Paloma should be able to intensify until it reaches a point near 20° North Latitude (between the Cayman Islands and Cuba) Saturday morning. I expect Paloma will be at Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds when it passes near or over Grand Cayman Island tonight, and will briefly intensify to Category 3 strength after passing Grand Cayman. This intensification will be slower if Paloma is unable to form a complete eyewall today. By Saturday morning, shear should rapidly weaken Paloma, and the hurricane will probably make landfall on Cuba Saturday afternoon or evening as a strong Category 1 hurricane. Passage over Cuba and continued high wind shear will further weaken Paloma before it arrives in the Bahamas Sunday night, and I expect Paloma will be a tropical storm with 45-55 mph winds as it blows through the Bahamas. The latest (06Z, 2am EST) run of both the HWRF and GFDL models predict that Paloma will hit Grand Cayman Island at about 9 pm EST tonight as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The latest 12Z SHIPS model puts Paloma as a strong Category 1 hurricane with 95 mph winds at landfall in Grand Cayman.

The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday morning. Several major models continue to predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given Paloma's current excellent organization and increasing intensity. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm crossing Cuba and passing through the central Bahamas. It appears likely that Grand Cayman will receive hurricane force winds from Paloma, and there is a 50% chance the island will get a portion of the eyewall hitting it. Little Cayman and Cayman Brac should only see top sustained winds of 50 mph, and the west end of Jamaica should see winds of just 20-30 mph from Paloma.

Damage potential for Paloma
Grand Cayman Island is not that prone to large storm surges, since it lies in deep water, and a hurricane's surge tends to flow around the island rather than get pushed up onto shore. The main concern from Paloma is wind damage. A direct hit from a Category 2 hurricane would likely do about $100 million dollars in damage, a nasty blow for an island that just this year finished recovering from the devastating punch delivered by Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Ivan damaged or destroyed 85% of the islands buildings, and caused $1.85 billion in damage. Much of Grand Cayman still remained without power, water, or sewer services for several months after the hurricane. The latest H*Wind analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division puts the potential wind damage at 1.1 on a scale of 1 to 6, and the potential storm surge damage at 1.4 on a scale of 1 to 6. These numbers will increase later today, but Paloma should be nothing like Hurricane Ivan.

Links to follow
Grand Cayman airport weather
Grand Cayman weather
Wundermap for the Cayman Islands

Historical November tropical cyclones
Historically, only about 5% of all Atlantic tropical storm activity occurs after November 1. Between 1871 and 2007, 60 tropical storms formed in November. Of these, 29 became hurricanes, and four of these, major hurricanes. There have also been two major hurricanes that formed in October and continued on into November. On average, one tropical storm forms in November every other year, and we can expect a November hurricane about one year in five.

The six major November hurricanes were Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph). There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April.

Major hurricanes in the Atlantic by month, 1851-2008
----------------------------------------------------------------------
May 1
June 3
July 9
August 80
September 149
October 60
November 6

In the list above, if a hurricane was at major hurricane strength in two separate months, it is counted as a major hurricane for both months.

November hurricanes of note
The most extraordinary November hurricane was "Wrong-Way Lenny", which hit the northern Leeward Islands as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds on November 17-18, 1999. Lenny was the first storm to have an extended west-to-east track across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea in the 135-year Atlantic tropical cyclone record, and was the strongest November hurricane on record. Hurricane Gordon was the deadliest November hurricane. It claimed 1122 lives in Haiti when it passed just west of the country as a tropical storm on November 13, 1994. Lenny claimed six lives in Costa Rica, five in the Dominican Republic, two in Jamaica, two in Cuba, and eight in Florida. Property damage to the United States was estimated at $400 million (1994 dollars), and was severe in Haiti and Cuba as well.

Three November hurricanes have hit the U.S.--an unnamed 1916 Category 1 hurricane that hit the Florida Keys, an unnamed 1925 Category 1 hurricane that struck Sarasota, Florida, and Hurricane Kate, which struck the Florida Panhandle on November 22, 1985.

A new record for the hurricane season of 2008?
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you DR. Masters..
I don't know how long it will be up but if you go to weatherincayman.com you can get updates about every 10 minutes on conditions from different points on Grand Cayman
Seek Shelter and Make all FINAL Preps complete in the Caymans.
Its not a wide one,but Paloma has lotsa flavor within that tight core of Hurricane force winds and greater.

Hang tough in that fortress Kman if ya in ears shout.

Hurricane Paloma
Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop Link



weatherincayman.com Link
Don't know how long I will be on because the Eastern districts are always the first to lose power but will come on periodically to give updates from East End as long as possible.
Thanks...
From previous blog comments:

HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING GRAND CAYMAN...

...
AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...390
KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.





HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF
NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.
We will be hoping for the best for ya , be safe and take no chances outside .
cayman webcam, don't know where this is located as i don't know where royal palms/reef grill is yet,

http://www.reefgrill.net/netcam/index.html
Royal Palms / Reef Grill is in the middle of 7 Mile Beach......great cocktails....not today though O:(
Here in Grand Cayman, the rains have eased some but this is obviously only temporary as the core will soon be over us. The wind however, has picked up quite a bit. We're in for a rough ride.....will keep you posted
re: Royal Palms / Reef Grill is in the middle of 7 Mile Beach

and that is north, south, east or west and is this on grand cayman??

thanx, jo
Thanks Jeff

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)

Off to work, will update again in an hour or so for the HH when it is on task
Thank You for the Dr. Masters
anyone got a link for a cayman web radio other than the vibe thank you hope everyone is having a good day
Eye's starting to become visible.
Closest buoy data to Paloma:
(couldn't insert images or links for some reason)


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT
42056


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42057&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT
42057

Couple of Cayman webcams.
Jo,

7 Mile is South West....(I live here and on it and I had to go check with my neighbours......!!!!!).
re: re: Royal Palms / Reef Grill is in the middle of 7 Mile Beach

ok i goggled it, is far west end of island.
thanx, http://www.reefgrill.net/netcam/index.html cam

jo
Thanks Doc
re: I live here and on it and I had to go check with my neighbours......!!!!!).

that's funny! thanx, sure is beautiful, and please be safe,

jo
starting to see the effects of the trough on its western side now.

Nearly every major computer model has the trough now missing Paloma....South Florida needs to start thinking about Tropical Storm Paloma coming.
24. 7544
Quoting TampaSpin:
Nearly every major computer model has the trough now missing Paloma....South Florida needs to start thinking about Tropical Storm Paloma coming.


where are u looking tampa not these

Link
25. 786
Quick update as the house gets boarded up. We are making last minute preparations to secure property and belongings. The conditions here are deteriorating rapidly, I am on the North side of the Island so it must be worse for those on the South. The land around Red Bay is already flooded and my yard is under water. We are getting periodic periods where there is just drizzle, but prob. not for long. Gusts are still about 47mph. The ocean is full of white caps. Gonna go cut some coconuts down now so they don't fly off break something.
I doubt it Tampa. shear and terrain will be a big problem for Paloma. Possibly can destroy her altogether before it clears Cuba.
Tampa-I know you don't joke around..but..for real?!? Sorry had to get that out of my system. When will we now more?
28. 7544
Quoting foggymyst:
Tampa-I know you don't joke around..but..for real?!? Sorry had to get that out of my system. When will we now more?


lol felt the same thought that was a impostor for min i always take tampas word here
Yea, a lot of the model's have it missing the troff now. I had a feeling this might happen.
Quoting Bonedog:
I doubt it Tampa. shear and terrain will be a big problem for Paloma. Possibly can destroy her altogether before it clears Cuba.


HEy Bonedog.....no way it will be a Hurricane but, i do now believe that a Min. Tropical Storm could impact Near the Keys and the Miami Dade area........Thats the reason i said tropical storm Paloma and not Hurricane.....Shear and terrian will hurt Paloma and the cooler waters......but, it won't fall completely apart before reaching that area in my opinion..
such a small storm a direct hit to caymen would be bad luck looks like a direct hit to me.
shear is protecting florida right now. its up to 60knts from roughly the keys north then around Orlando north it gets to 80knts. between Paloma and florida its 20, 30, 40, 50knts stacked till the keys.

Thats a pretty safe bet that FL is going to be just fine
34. 7544
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Yea, a lot of the model's have it missing the troff now. I had a feeling this might happen.


got a link all the models i see still have it going ne tia
that protoeye is trying to peak out again LOL.
37. IKE
From this mornings Miami,FL. discussion....

"currently, S fla seems to undergoing a squeeze play with two
strong short waves to the north with strong ridging aloft between
these two systems across our region. At the sfc, a weak high
pressure ridge lies across north fla while Hurricane Paloma is over
the western Caribbean Sea. This pattern will continue through
today with only slow changes occurring over the weekend. As the
shortwave over the northern plains moves into the Great Lakes
region on Saturday, its associated cold front will move into north fla
which in turn will steer Paloma to the NE towards east central Cuba.
(Refer to latest track guidance from nhc). By Sunday, the
shortwave will continue to the east so the surface front will begin to
have less push and will make it through S fla but only as a weak
front with very little temperature change, albeit somewhat lower dew
points. As all of this transpires, any moisture from Paloma will
stay way to the S and east of the peninsula and plan to undercut
significantly both met and mav guidance.
It seems as though the
GFS is up to its old tricks and only looking at an increase in middle
to upper level moisture with just an increase in middle to high layer
cloudiness. Why the met brings probability of precipitation up to near mav numbers is a
mystery since it keeps Paloma nearly stationary in the western
Caribbean through 12z Monday. I might add that this solution seems
highly unlikely due to above synoptic patterns. Another factor to
consider is just how breezy will it get. The GFS does increase the
gradient on Sunday as Paloma moves off the NE CST of Cuba along
with surface high building north behind the front. For now, have opted to
keep the winds weaker than what the GFS indicates and will wait to
see just how strong Paloma gets and where its position may be at
that time."
Paloma STILL has nothing on the US

watch out GC (Grand Cayman) ur in Paloma's sights also the sister islands may need to consider any final actions too as Paloma is scheduled to become a major at or after she hits GC
Anyone needing current Information can look at my blog for current graphic as they all stay current.....i did not update my blog from yesterday......but i did put a comment in the comment section as to my thinking of the impact in South Florida......
41. 786
Leftovers, we are 19.2, 81.3 and it is due to hit 19.2, 81.3..think thats about as direct as it gets. We'll start hetting H-force winds between 5-6pm
Gotta run now.......will be back late this evening ....786 you stay safe as well as everyone in the path of Paloma......again South Florida needs to watch this very close today.....just my opinion...
43. 786
actually 19.2, 81.3
Tampa I just took a look at the parameters for the NAM they initalized the run with Paloma being 35knts. Think we have to wait for the next runs. These seem to have been initalized wrongly.
45. 786
ahhh too much going on I meant its due to hit 19.1, 81.3
Does anyone here have any educated thoughts on the possibilites of S FL getting an impact? Any models suggest this?
47. 786
Thanks Tampa we should be ok with a cat 2, hopefully...as the yard is already flooded and we are on the water once the surge comes in we will prob get a bit of flooding in the house, but what can you do just gotta make sure anything valuable is sitting on counters etc.
south fla will get 40 to 50 mph winds and 60 mph gust and rain that it so south fla be ready and sunday i cant wait to go to the dolphins game when it will be raining
Quoting TampaSpin:
Nearly every major computer model has the trough now missing Paloma....South Florida needs to start thinking about Tropical Storm Paloma coming.


Good morning Tampa and nice to see that someone else supports the thinking that I had last night in just making sure people in South Florida don't let their guards down. Been watching the computer models this morning and have seen that they no longer predict the trough to carry Paloma out to sea, but rather stall it around Cuba. Based upon the current progression, I would hazard a guess that it would stall out after passing over Cuba. Then the models forecast high pressure to build in behind the trough and push the weakened storm towards the west and quite possibly South Florida.

That is why Tampa has made such a statement; similar to the statement I made last night.
Actually, Grand Cayman is 81.2 and 19.2
51. 786
winds are coming from the WSE, gusts 47.5mph and sustained winds around 35mph, pressure is 1007.5mb
East End 47 gusting to 57 and seas are ROUGH
53. 786
50. I thought so too but Kman said 81.3 although online it is 81.2 so perhaps it depends where you are on the island
Quoting 786:
winds are coming from the WSE, gusts 47.5mph and sustained winds around 35mph, pressure is 1007.5mb


Thats a new direction that I've never heard of. WSE???
south fla will get 50 mph winds and 6o to 65 mph gust
Quoting eddye:
south fla will get 40 to 50 mph winds and 60 mph gust and rain that it so south fla be ready and sunday i cant wait to go to the dolphins game when it will be raining


That is not in current model solutions, and, SF will be North of the weak side (not even possibly a Hurricane after it's brush with Cuba) so, respectfully, don't go there....
just how is S Florida gonna be impacted as

1)high wind shear builds in
2)Paloma runs out of water going thru Cuba
3)Cuba's Mountains
4)the front (or trough) is taking her out to sea (in relation to Florida)
5)the track keeps on shifting more east on NHC

if anything it will just be cloudy or may even drizzle but that's about it!
58. 786
50. East end gets some rough seas, the North Sound is full of white caps, friget birds are flying around hunting. Do you know if they are imposing a curfew? and when the airport is closing?
looks like an over achiever recon will tell
60. 786
The direction is ENE coming from the WSW
61. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That is not in current model solutions, and, SF will be North of the weak side (not even possibly a Hurricane after it's brush with Cuba) so, respectfully, don't go there....


Agree. South Florida will be okay from Paloma.

eddye should stop his/her wishcasting.
62. 786
lol WSE would break some records
Airport was scheduled to close at 10 and haven't heard of curfew yet but sure it will happen soon
Supposed to hit 19.1 81.3 which seems to me would be right through the center of GC
He's making bleed! (from my head/desk banging)

stop saying the F word!
ike your not max mayfield you dont know nothing
67. 786
thats sux I know tons of people that were supposed to fly out today and tomo for the long weekend ah well
LOL WSE would be a tornado LOL

I know its impossible just trying to make a funny thats all ;)
say cheese! Looks like the eye is finally about to pop

70. 786
64. I know and if it does with H-force winds extending out 15 miles either direction...the Island being 22 miles long I think its safe to say at this point we'll all get cat 2 winds
I just learned today that November 8th/9th is the anniversary of the tragic 1932 hurricane that devastated Cayman Brac. Thought I would share. Winds are picking up rapidly.
ed u just earned urself a one way ticket to poofsville

bye
786 - where on the Northside are you located?
74. IKE
12Z GFS through 132 hours....Link
75. IKE
Quoting Bonedog:
say cheese! Looks like the eye is finally about to pop



WOW!

That looks ominous for Grand Cayman.
We can't say SF is totally out of the woods.. anything can happen.. yet your right, it will be very weak IF it even turns back to the west. If it was October, West Florida should have been slammed, about the same path as Wilma.
77. 786
OH Shiat we are in Curfew now! until the all clear is given
That sux Kman =( Looks like you all are repeating history =(

stay safe folks and you are in my prayers
that's just scary Kmanw how that happens
yea IKE looking at the sat image I feel for those in GC, LC and CB
81. 786
on the North Sound in Red Bay which is under water already, don't understand why they haven't built the roads etc up a bit. Our house is 4-5ft above sea level so we will prob get a bit wet
That's scary

hate bad coincidences

hope alls well in this story's end
83. 786
I know and it was all last minute too, everything shut down at 10am so I hope that everyone had time to get their supplies
Has Kmanislander reported in today?
anyone know what time recon is due? I know they had 4 flights planned for today
86. 786
not that I know of anyway gonna fill the tubs with water bbl
81.
oh, okay. I have family in the Hutland area, and they have had alot of rain but no mention of flooding yet.
Kmanwoddie not that I had seen I have been on continously since 5am.
they should be on about now at lease thats what I heard

also I think K Island did show up
You need to hurry, they are turning off water soon.
troubled-Hutland is a ways from the sea and fairly high. Located on the N side of the island and I don't know what Paloma is going to do but that was one of the few parts of the island that barely had any damage from Ivan
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM PALOMA
FLIGHT ONE:(ADDED) NOAA 43 WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/0200Z AND
OPERATING AT 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO:(ADDED) NOAA 49 WILL ALSO FLY A RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/0200Z AND
OPERATING BETWEEN 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.

FLIGHT THREE: NOAA 43 WILL FLY ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/1400Z AND OPERATING
AT 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0517A PALOMA
C. 07/1430Z
D. 17.8N 82.83W
E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0617A PALOMA
C. 08/0245Z
D. 18.8N 82.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
P-3 AND G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 08/1400Z.
HaHa. Water has been off in EE since 8am but I have a well with a pump so should be good until power goes off
Here in West Bay, Grand Cayman, the wind has picked up and the rain is coming down in intermitent heavy showers. The seas along the western coast are very rough with large swells beginning to come in. Storm surge is going to be an issue it seems along the southern and western coasts. From satellite...we appear to be on the edge of the CDO feature so I expect rain bands to become more frequent and supply us with heavier winds. It looks as if the eye is about to "open". It will either pass over Grand Cayman or very close....but looking at the latest visible sat image...it seems to have wobbled to the right of its forecast track somewhat. We will have to wait until the eye clears to get a better look at what the centers position is in relation to the projected points. Stay tuned....and stay SAFE Cayman!
ok they are at 24.0N 63.6W right now
96. 7544
nice blog tampa good work maybe we might see a model shift to what you seeing but as you know people keep seeing the cone going south of fla and get relaxed . so if the nhc shifts the cone it will be major change for so flo. stil sitting and watching to see if the ne turn takes place when expected
Hope everyone in the Caymans is prepared for this late-season hurricane!
This is an interesting tidbit...
1106 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008 (EAST CENTRAL FLA)

...DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA ...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE PALOMA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. Huh?.
Quoting Kmanwoodie:
Has Kmanislander reported in today?


I think he was here earlier this morning...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Nearly every major computer model has the trough now missing Paloma....South Florida needs to start thinking about Tropical Storm Paloma coming.


I am not at home, so I don't have my hurricane links- could you please post the ones that show this? Thanks!
100. 786
We are on a cistern, more worried about when CUC turn of power
The only Florida that is going to be hit by Paloma is Florida, Cuba.

And yes, there is a place called Florida in Cuba
Hi all!!

I'm on the northwest point of the island and the breeze is really picking up - pretty strong gusts now. Not too much rain right now though.

I know Water Authority is/has shut off water, does anyone know about Cayman Water Company?
103. 7544
Quoting Chicklit:
Hope everyone in the Caymans is prepared for this late-season hurricane!
This is an interesting tidbit...
1106 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008 (EAST CENTRAL FLA)

...DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA ...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE PALOMA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. Huh?.


well cuba is to the south of central fla isnt it lol ?
I'll be back

if anything initial preps should have been made already

final preps like charging batts filling tubs and like wise should be done if not done so already

stay safe kmans we'll be hoping for the best for ya
I have been looking at a LOT of loops this morning...
It seems to me, every time Paloma starts getting close to having a closed "eyewall" it ingests a slug of drier air and has to start over...
...any thoughts from others?
I hope I not engaging in "wishful thinking" for my friends on Cayman.
CRS
Eye's almost clear.
Quoting Orcasystems:
The only Florida that is going to be hit by Paloma is Florida, Cuba.

And yes, there is a place called Florida in Cuba


LOL so tru
Hurricane Paloma Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop Link
109. 786
OK got an update: no curfew will be imposed as they don't even want police officers out there to impose it. CUC will be shutting power down around 7pm as of now
Paloma might be undergoing a period of Rapid Intensification again, Pressure's in Category 2 area, winds are starting to catch up.
I personally doubt South Florida will get anything stronger than a tropical storm. My guess is Paloma will intensify to cat 3/4 status before making landfall in Cuba. It then should weaken over Cuba (depending on how many mountains it travels over and how much shear affects it). When it makes it back into the waters it should be a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm (depending on how much it strengthens before landfall on Cuba).

If the computer models are right, it could swing back to the west and potentially threaten South Florida. I definitely do not expect anything over minimal hurricane status, but a tropical storm is more likely.
thats not a good sign
Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link
I still praying for the eye to cross at least 30miles south of Grand Cayman, its looks like its moving just a tad east of forecast points, keeping my fingers crossed.
yup I think the eye will stay this time. Seems to be the eye wall is uniform and dense. Give it a little bit to clear up the eye I dont think this one will poof anytime soon.
stormwatcherci- thanks. Yep, I know that they lost a few shingles and some trees in Ivan and that was about all the damage they had. They were without power for MONTHS though.
weatherincayman.com Link
stormpetrol where you located
Complete Blog Refresh
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With the HH also
eye getting more symetrical

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
stormpetrol where you located


South Sound, right across from the Black Coral shop.
Quoting troubled:
stormwatcherci- thanks. Yep, I know that they lost a few shingles and some trees in Ivan and that was about all the damage they had. They were without power for MONTHS though.
I know . The powr was off in EE for 2 1/2 months and about 3 in NS. My daughter lived in Frank Sound at the time which is a few miles before the Hut and she got power back about 10 days after us.
bonedog that means one thing!!!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Good morning Tampa and nice to see that someone else supports the thinking that I had last night in just making sure people in South Florida don't let their guards down. Been watching the computer models this morning and have seen that they no longer predict the trough to carry Paloma out to sea, but rather stall it around Cuba. Based upon the current progression, I would hazard a guess that it would stall out after passing over Cuba. Then the models forecast high pressure to build in behind the trough and push the weakened storm towards the west and quite possibly South Florida.

That is why Tampa has made such a statement; similar to the statement I made last night.


I agree as well. Several of the models have
trended further west with Paloma- as a weaker
storm impacting Florida. Several
Wunderground models for Paloma have shifted
west. The trough is not strong enough to shoot
it off to the NE, but it is likely to be steered further N and then later the NE turn
with another shortwave...or turns due west
in the NW Caribbean...likely to degenerate into
a tropical storm if it reaches the gulf/atlantic close to FL.
In looking at shear maps and forecast shear, CCHS and Tampa's scenario is not out of the question.

Yes, the current thinking of NHC is most probable, but it is not out of the question if the timing is just right. If it is, Paloma could face no more than 20-30kts before getting to 25N.

Yes, you have Cuba and that shear, so would certainly take a beating, but could survive as a weak TS.

Just saying, I guess, that I agree with CCHS. While unlikely, would not completely write off some impact to S FL. The thinking/data behind it is there, imo, even if low % chance.

Plus, that's part of the fun of this... looking at the conventional wisdom and then analyzing where it might be a little off if such-and-such happened (backed up by data).

Otherwise, every post would be "Just look at the NHC track. That is what will happen." We all know that is not true.

All that being said, yes, chances of significant FL impact is very low. Just not impossible for some impact, imo.
126. IKE
60+ knots of shear over Florida and the entire gulf-coast...no worries for the USA on Paloma....

your up high?
stormpetrol-hope the road doesn't get torn up like it did with Ivan. My husband works on Walkers Road and had to go the long way around for a few weeks.
with 4 schedualed flights I figured we would have data all day long =/

Oh well just have to wait.
Quoting IKE:
60+ knots of shear over Florida and the entire gulf-coast...no worries for the USA on Paloma....



As of right now it is, yes. Look at shear tendency and the model forecast for shear.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
your up high?
Who ?
Ok, so right now.. Florida is in line for almost a direct hit.... Florida Cuba that is



Click to Enlarge
Quoting Bonedog:
with 4 schedualed flights I figured we would have data all day long =/

Oh well just have to wait.


Later in the day we should get loads of data.
Quoting Seastep:
In looking at shear maps and forecast shear, CCHS and Tampa's scenario is not out of the question.

Yes, the current thinking of NHC is most probable, but it is not out of the question if the timing is just right. If it is, Paloma could face no more than 20-30kts before getting to 25N.

Yes, you have Cuba and that shear, so would certainly take a beating, but could survive as a weak TS.

Just saying, I guess, that I agree with CCHS. While unlikely, would not completely write off some impact to S FL. The thinking/data behind it is there, imo, even if low % chance.

Plus, that's part of the fun of this... looking at the conventional wisdom and then analyzing where it might be a little off if such-and-such happened (backed up by data).

Otherwise, every post would be "Just look at the NHC track. That is what will happen." We all know that is not true.

All that being said, yes, chances of significant FL impact is very low. Just not impossible for some impact, imo.



The TCVN, a highly respeced model with the NHC has Paloma in the Central Bahamas heading south of west. Even the GFDL and HWRF are turning Paloma around, albeit further off to the NE. May linger for a while, who knows.
Orca..lol...thanks!
sorry i was asking stormpetrol that area will see a 4-5 ft surge so please be careful
Likely Paloma will be a Category 2 for the
Cayman Island, and Category 3/4 for Cuba.
After that, emerges from Cuba as a Category
1 with weakening to a strong tropical storm.

Click to enlarge








wow! just when I thought the 2008 season was over.............
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca..lol...thanks!


I have learnt that if the Blog gets slow.. and you want to liven it up.. say the "F" word... Florida, and all heck breaks loose.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
sorry i was asking stormpetrol that area will see a 4-5 ft surge so please be careful


I live next to Southern Skies townhouses, right across the street from the sea, but in this particular area in South Sound the sea never crossed the street, not even from Ivan, so in that regard I feel pretty safe.
Obviously the NOGAPS is an outlier at the moment, but can anyone comment on the possibility of this scenario. I am seeing a trend on the other major models to possibly stall or make a turn back west at some point
looking at sat images now the eye is becoming evident on all images.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have learnt that if the Blog gets slow.. and you want to liven it up.. say the "F" word... Florida, and all heck breaks loose.


Yes, because a lot of people here live in Florida (which makes sense since it get hits by the most hurricanes).
145. myway
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have learnt that if the Blog gets slow.. and you want to liven it up.. say the "F" word... Florida, and all heck breaks loose.


Not the "f" word. Kendall will have a heart attack.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

NOGAPS does Target Florida- westerlies would
bring it into the West Coast Just South of Tampa Bay. NGFDL pulls it into the NW Caribbean, in a position to potentially threaten south florida as westerlies arrive.
Other models slow it down over the Bahamas, some start to turn it back west toward Florida.
Florida is NOT out of the WOODS! So don't let your gaurd down. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY SHEAR, SO NOTHING STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED AS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, IN MY OPINION, based on the synoptics I have been pouring over since this morning.


Caymens going to see alot of rain from this one
148. IKE
If the latest GFS verifies, old-man winter returns to the eastern USA next weekend...

Quoting Orcasystems:


I have learnt that if the Blog gets slow.. and you want to liven it up.. say the "F" word... Florida, and all heck breaks loose.


This is because Florida needs to have it's gaurd up especially since late season storms
have the potential to impact the state. I am just going by the model trends and synoptics.
150. IKE
...
151. 7544
Quoting TampaBayHurricane:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

NOGAPS does Target Florida- westerlies would
bring it into the West Coast Just South of Tampa Bay. NGFDL pulls it into the NW Caribbean, in a position to potentially threaten south florida as westerlies arrive.
Other models slow it down over the Bahamas, some start to turn it back west toward Florida.
Florida is NOT out of the WOODS! So don't let your gaurd down. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY SHEAR, SO NOTHING STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED AS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, IN MY OPINION, based on the synoptics I have been pouring over since this morning.


what models are you looking at showing this got a link theses dont

Link
Quoting Chicklit:
Hope everyone in the Caymans is prepared for this late-season hurricane!
This is an interesting tidbit...
1106 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008 (EAST CENTRAL FLA)

...DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA ...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE PALOMA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. Huh?.


It will pass South of Central FL, makes sense to me.:)
Here's a link to the models:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

again, this would be a tropical storm at the Florida latitude, but Cuba/Cayman, my prayers with you.
Quoting TampaBayHurricane:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

NOGAPS does Target Florida- westerlies would
bring it into the West Coast Just South of Tampa Bay. NGFDL pulls it into the NW Caribbean, in a position to potentially threaten south florida as westerlies arrive.
Other models slow it down over the Bahamas, some start to turn it back west toward Florida.
Florida is NOT out of the WOODS! So don't let your gaurd down. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY SHEAR, SO NOTHING STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED AS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, IN MY OPINION, based on the synoptics I have been pouring over since this morning.


You are right. I'm just worried that Paloma may be stronger than expected before going into Cuba which would make it stronger than a moderate TS once it's in the Bahamas. Another worry is it may travel over Cuba in area with little mountains (causing it to weaken less) or the shear being lighter than forecasted. Also, the SST's near the Bahamas are plenty warm. These scenarios are all SPECULATION and are based off just my opinion.
Quoting IKE:
None of the latest model runs aim it at the "F" word....




If the latest GFS verifies, old-man winter returns to the eastern USA next weekend...



Even out of all of the Spaghetti models.. only one goes anywhere near "F"




Click to Enlarge
Quoting 7544:


what models are you looking at showing this got a link theses dont

Link

I posted the link at the very top of the post you quoted
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
12Z CMC LOL.


Ahhh crap.. its been right more often then its been wrong
160. 7544
ohhh umm new runs tampa may be right hmmmmm
Good afternoon everyone

As you might imagine I have been busy getting ready for Paloma. All preparations are complete and we are ready at my home.

Since midnight last night my weather station has recorded 4 inches of rain and many low lying areas are already flooded. Winds are not that strong yet but we have seen over 30 mph in squalls. Pressure is in the mid 2007 mb range.

Based on the last several frames of the vis loop it looks as if Paloma may slip by just South and East of Grand Cayman. It is already due South of my position by some 70 miles. With a motion just east of due N this should take it just off the Eastern end of the island by about 30 miles.

Paloma is presently SE of the current forecast point but I need to see another 4 frames or so in order to determine whether it is indeed tracking NE of the forecast track or whether that is a wobble.

In any event it would have to run due N with no deviation to give us a direct strike and IMO it is not looking like that at the moment.
The only way i see a direct Florida impact from Paloma is if a few butterflies flap their wings in the Barzilian jungle

lol

I really do not see any impact- either it rolls out of Cuba as a weak TS or it will be sheared to death, mercilessly and only provide for a rainy day.
Defiantly stronger now.
Quoting Rmbjoe:


lol

I really do not see any impact- either it rolls out of Cuba as a weak TS or it will be sheared to death, mercilessly and only provide for a rainy day.


Now there is the first logical statement about that.
Kman... yep
Good to hear from you, watching closely here
david, thank you for checking in, we are all happy to hear from you guys down there and have all our fingers & toes crossed!

jo
In any case, shear would keep it as a tropical storm north of Cuba, unless it is stronger than expected.

per the lasted visible, it does appear to be
intensifying, something we do not want to see...my prayers for those in Cuba/Cayman.
Quoting 7544:


what models are you looking at showing this got a link theses dont

Link


Speaking to your link and statement only:

All models from you link except the UKMET now show a stall and then westerly component. Most were not before.

CMC - Yucatan

GFDL - trending towards the "stall" scenario while it was straight out to sea before.

GFS - Just S of FL

HWRF - trending w/ GFDL as would be expected, but stalls it much earlier.

fsu-merge - Loop-dee-loop

NOGAPS - keeps doing what it's doing.

Again, UNLIKELY, but not impossible, especially if the model trend continues.
Blog really picked up since yesterday.
Seems like Paloma might come back to nip us..But for now..prayers to those in the Caymans and Cuba.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon everyone

As you might imagine I have been busy getting ready for Paloma. All preparations are complete and we are ready at my home.

Since midnight last night my weather station has recorded 4 inches of rain and many low lying areas are already flooded. Winds are not that strong yet but we have seen over 30 mph in squalls. Pressure is in the mid 2007 mb range.

Based on the last several frames of the vis loop it looks as if Paloma may slip by just South and East of Grand Cayman. It is already due South of my position by some 70 miles. With a motion just east of due N this should take it just off the Eastern end of the island by about 30 miles.

Paloma is presently SE of the current forecast point but I need to see another 4 frames or so in order to determine whether it is indeed tracking NE of the forecast track or whether that is a wobble.

In any event it would have to run due N with no deviation to give us a direct strike and IMO it is not looking like that at the moment.


Just want to wish you and everyone in the Cayman Islands good luck and hope that the storm spares you all. Great to see that you have finished your preparations.
Yes I am praying for all those in the path-
please if you are in Cayman/Cuba seek a strong building shelter.
Good afternoon...
Hi Jo

I sure hope this is the last one for the season. It takes two days to prepare properly but you can't take chances with half measures. Once conditions go down hill there is nothing you can do then but wait it out
175. 786
From our local news:

On its projected path... Category 1 hurricane-force winds are expected on Grand Cayman by late this afternoon. The centre of the system is expected to pass over Grand Cayman around midnight Friday. As the storm centre crosses Grand Cayman, winds will become calm for 30-60 minutes, but stronger winds will return from the west to northwest.

The closest point of approach for Grand Cayman will be at 9.00 pm Friday, when Paloma will be 14 miles away, with maximum sustained winds of up to 106 miles per hour, gusting to 132 mph.

Storm surge in Grand Cayman is expected to be 4 to 6, feet with wave heights of around 20 to 30 feet expected on the south, west and north coasts. Waves of up to 15-20 feet with lower storm surge are likely elsewhere on the island.

Tropical-storm winds are expected to subside for Grand Cayman around noon on Saturday

Residents should monitor all local media outlets that carry local news in order to stay informed about Paloma and visitors staying in hotels and other properties should follow the advice of the staff. People in single-story buildings along Northwest Point, Seven Mile Beach, and the south coast of Grand Cayman to about Breakers, should evacuate. These areas will be subject to strong seas and storm surge.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS
Note the TVCN model that the NHC usually uses to create their projected track since it averages out all the computer models. Starting to pick up on stalling after passing through Cuba and moving westward. Will have to see if thats reflected in the 4PM EST advisory on Paloma.

171. cchsweatherman 5:20 PM GMT on November 07, 2008

Thanks. I will keep you all updated as long at the power and internet are up.


eye becoming better defined now =(
east of grand caymens? sure hope so
This would blow Surfmom away
re: I sure hope this is the last one for the season.


heavens above, we are ALL with you there!

jo
182. 7544
gfs and now the tvcn that chhs psoted agree is not out of the question i can see palolma doing that for fla with the high sliding to the east

cmc hmm iffy



Orca,
I love how the cone does a little bend just to make sure it catches the TCI in its loop...
Good afternoon.
Surge of 4-6 feet
Waves of 15-20 feet
Get away from the south coast, is my foolish advice.......
175. 786 5:24 PM GMT on November 07, 2008

I think the risk of the eye crossing over the island is diminishing but that is just my opinion. The next 4 hrs will tell us whether we may get a break with the eye passing just off East End
re: Note the TVCN model

hey cchs....i am old (and matronly!!) and bad eyeballs! which one of those squashed spider legs is the tvcn line?

thanx, jo
LOL Orca 41 footers nice =) Not the largest ever surfed though
Quoting Orcasystems:
This would blow Surfmom away


All I have to say is WOW!
Recon descending now.

Hunker down time for the Caymanians.

Stay safe and thanks for keeping us updated.
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: Note the TVCN model

hey cchs....i am old (and matronly!!) and bad eyeballs! which one of those squashed spider legs is the tvcn line?

thanx, jo


Squashed spider legs, brings back memories of a storm in 04.
giant thick wave = tazmania
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: Note the TVCN model

hey cchs....i am old (and matronly!!) and bad eyeballs! which one of those squashed spider legs is the tvcn line?

thanx, jo


Here is the link so that you can see it better. The TVCN is the light blue line. Sorry about that, its just that I don't want to make the image too large that it stretches the blog.

Link
193. 7544
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: Note the TVCN model

hey cchs....i am old (and matronly!!) and bad eyeballs! which one of those squashed spider legs is the tvcn line?

thanx, jo


the light blue one that turns it west back to se fla
Well... Palomita has slowed down quite a bit... what will she'll do now. Will she follow the GFS based suit or will she follow CMC/NOGAPs...!!!

Ken Bradshaw at Outer Log Cabins, Oahu, on 1-28-98. His wave was about 80 feet tall. Consensus among surfers and photogs at Log Cabins that day was that Ken's rogue wave at about 11:30am was clearly the biggest wave on an awesome day when the deep water bouy reached 27 feet at 20 seconds, and Waimea closed out. There is no photo of Ken's wave. Some video footage was shot from a mile away on shore documenting his 30-second ride which appears in the DVDs Making the Call and The Moment. In that brief video footage the view of the beginning of Ken's ride was partly blocked by a smaller wave in front. Ken conquored the wave and kicked out in glory. Ken and Dan Moore discussed the wave in the DVD Biggest Wednesday.

That day at Jaws, Maui, some surfers, including Laird Hamilton rode waves 65 feet or taller and Buzzy Kerbox may have ridden the biggest wave at Jaws that day, since his wave broke furthest towards the channel.



Quoting kmanislander:
175. 786 5:24 PM GMT on November 07, 2008

....we may get a break with the eye passing just off East End


the center passing to the east would make a BIG difference in impact, as then, the worst winds would be blowing "offshore"
good luck

[edit] I should clarify the "offshore"... I mean offshore on the south and west ends... which would catch the worst if storm center passed to the West of the island.
191. leftovers 12:32 PM EST on November 07, 2008
giant thick wave = tazmania


Could be teahupo
out for the weekend folks. Please stay safe and my prayers are with you.

See ya all later
Recon AF303 is decending into Paloma.
200. 786
Kman I hope so, fingers crossed
Looks like recon is going to fly around 10,000'.
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
kmanislander its a wobble direction still the same
Wow. What a change in the model trends.

Even with what I have said, did not expect it to change so much.

Will be interesting to see what NHC has to say.

GFDL 06Z

GFDL 12Z
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon everyone

As you might imagine I have been busy getting ready for Paloma. All preparations are complete and we are ready at my home.

Since midnight last night my weather station has recorded 4 inches of rain and many low lying areas are already flooded. Winds are not that strong yet but we have seen over 30 mph in squalls. Pressure is in the mid 2007 mb range.

Based on the last several frames of the vis loop it looks as if Paloma may slip by just South and East of Grand Cayman. It is already due South of my position by some 70 miles. With a motion just east of due N this should take it just off the Eastern end of the island by about 30 miles.

Paloma is presently SE of the current forecast point but I need to see another 4 frames or so in order to determine whether it is indeed tracking NE of the forecast track or whether that is a wobble.

In any event it would have to run due N with no deviation to give us a direct strike and IMO it is not looking like that at the moment.


Recon getting battered in 35 mph winds. Pressure down to 1005mb.
bark bark heres your bone choopes is a left plus notice the thick wetsuit seems to me the hurricane wont intensify more because of dry air. if paloma makes a left hook could be a tropical storm gordon track 94
FYI... this is the time frame I was referring in my last posts in which we'll need to watch the DLM High to its east for strengthening or weakening... Currently it has maintain quite well and is preventing Paloma from departing or making that turn as is starting to get sandwich between the trough to its NW and a DLM High to its NE and E sides.

Will be interesting to see how things play out... I do hope it stays where it is and that the DLM High builds stronger so it will not affect land and be destroyed by shear.
Correction SFMR winds up to: 46.0 knots and pressure down to 1002.6mb.... that was: 55 miles (88 km) to the SW (229°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
So, am I right or is S FL getting more in the picture than days past models? Or is it all just hype around here? Just curious...
210. 7544
polaoma is getting more compact . watch the track if p goes right on the nhc track ne its ggoing to hit the high to the east of fla and could head back west . she might make some krazy moves at point stay tuned
211. 786
At Owens Airport pressure down to 1005.5mb, sustained winds ranging from 32-40mph, gusts there 47.5mph, the rate they are reported is 1.2mb/hr. Rain today has been 3.28 inches so far
212. 786
sorry make that 3.82 inches
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So, am I right or is S FL getting more in the picture than days past models? Or is it all just hype around here? Just curious...


Yes, but the points made about Cuba and shear exacting a heavy toll prior to it getting there (if it even goes that way) are still valid ones.

Models have trended that way. Waiting for the 12Z HWRF but expect it to follow the trend.
214. 786
Check out the site below, real time data of pressure, winds etc at the airport

http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CIFS/index.html
If by some fluke South Florida gets in Palomas' way, it would be in the form of rain-if that;
If there is a westterly solution to the models I beleive Paloma would be in its death throes from the shear- i do not see any wind impact at all.
216. 7544
Quoting Seastep:


Yes, but the points made about Cuba and shear exacting a heavy toll prior to it getting there (if it even goes that way) are still valid ones.

Models have trended that way. Waiting for the 12Z HWRF but expect it to follow the trend.


yeap more are shoeing it going back to the w or wsw at lat 22 to 25 but not very strong in strenth this will be fun to see a dizzy paloma . and a new cone from the n hc soon
Up to 90 MPH now, with a pressure of 974 MB, Solid Category 2 Pressure. I expect it will become a Category 3 early tomorrow.
Paloma eye starting to that stadium look.
Poised for Category 2 status...

REPEATING THE 100 PM EST POSITION...18.4 N...81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.


HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...PALOMA INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...HEADING TOWARD GRAND CAYMAN...



AT 100 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...WEST
OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE
COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT OR
ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.
..AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 974 MB...28.91 INCHES.
for who cares about that surf spot it is shipstern bluff http://magicseaweed.com/photoLab/viewPhoto.php?photoId=59118
The latest coordinate sames to agree with my thoughts all along it is moving just east of due north, hope this trend continue that way we'll be missed by the NE right front quadrant.
Radio Cayman 1 Streaming Radio

mms://209.27.53.52/radiocayman

Residence are calling in live with the questions on the storm Lots of talk about the 1932 storm and a tidal wave that occurred then.

Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So, am I right or is S FL getting more in the picture than days past models? Or is it all just hype around here? Just curious...


90% hype mostly, too much shear for it to make it, hope that makes your day brighter:)
Just looking at ship locations. Guessing more than one passenger wishing they had not gone on their cruise.
My thoughts ane prayers are with everyone in the Cayman Islands. Recon is approaching the COC from the NW. Should get a vortex reading shortly.
Visiable loop. Really pulling together now.
URNT12 KWBC 071730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 7/1709Z
B. 18 DEG 20 MIN N
81 DEG 25 MIN W
C. NA
D. 70 KT
E. 326 DEG 23 NM
F. 073 DEG 72 KT
G. 325 DEG 22 NM
H. 976 MB
I. 11 C/3676 M
J. 14 C/3676 M
K. 7 C/NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WXWXA PALOMA3 OB 11 AL162008
MAX FL WIND 72KTS NW QUAD 1701Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 80KTS S QUAD 1714Z
MAX FL TEMP 14C 314/7 NM FROM FL CNTR

Paloma about to take in a good bit of dry air.
NOTE:
from adv 8 & 8a

AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST

AT 100 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST

That's 1/10 degree North and 3/10 degree East
movement in that period


231. IKE
Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)


77 F
Light Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 F
Wind: 36 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 52 mph
Pressure: 29.68 in (Falling)
Visibility: 3.7 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1200 ft
Overcast 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Even the often aggressive cmc, which now brings it to FL has it nothing more than a TD cause shear. If this came to pass it would be worst case for Grand Cayman as she woould stall in the next 6 hrs.
Big Changes

Category 1 Hurricane
Maximum winds of 90 mph
and a pressure of 974 mb
Latitude: 18.4
Longitude: -81.3
From 226 at 104 knots
(From the SW at ~ 119.6 mph)


974.5 mb
(~ 28.78 inHg)

Translates to about 100 mph...975mb
Quoting Orcasystems:
Big Changes



What exactly is that showing orca? the HH replaced the center?
Paloma might pass just east of Grand Cayman, but of course, any ''wobble'' to the NWW might change that, though...



Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall.
Splash Location: 18.36N 81.19W
Splash Time: 18:05Z



Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
985mb (Surface) 165° (from the SSE) 84 knots (97 mph)
981mb 160° (from the SSE) 92 knots (106 mph)
970mb 165° (from the SSE) 98 knots (113 mph)
959mb 170° (from the S) 101 knots (116 mph)
949mb 170° (from the S) 95 knots (109 mph)
944mb 175° (from the S) 102 knots (117 mph)
932mb 180° (from the S) 103 knots (119 mph)
924mb 185° (from the S) 97 knots (112 mph)
906mb 190° (from the S) 99 knots (114 mph)
883mb 195° (from the SSW) 90 knots (104 mph)
850mb 205° (from the SSW) 90 knots (104 mph)
697mb 225° (from the SW) 103 knots (119 mph)
Wow. Recon came in to the COC from the nw and came out the se of the COC. Winds on the NW less than 50 mph and on the SE over 110 mph.
Orca..??
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca..??


I'm looking I'm looking.. not enough data.
If its a wobble.. then not much.. if its a track change.. then Kman may get missed.

If its the start of the stall.. who knows
LOL..sorry Orca..foggy mist raising to hide...
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 18:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2008
Storm Name: Paloma (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:57:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°23'N 81°24'W (18.3833N 81.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 64 miles (102 km) to the S (181°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,882m (9,455ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 44° at 63kts (From the NE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south-southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the W (275°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND 106KTS SE QUAD 18:00:00Z
RADAR INDICATED POSSIBLE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL FORMING.
Hopefully Grand Cayman will be on the left side of Paloma and not be subject to her full strength.
245. 786
pressure is down to 1004.5mb here dropping at a rat of 1.4mb/hr. sustained winds are now from 38-41mph and max gust has been 48.2mph. Not raining much right now but I'm sure it will start again soon.
Good sign...

RADAR INDICATED POSSIBLE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL FORMING.
Recon seems to be finding a Category 2 undergoing an EWRC.
Remember yesterday~mm5, cmc having her go more east as the front didn't get her, south of Grand Cayman. Then back tracking left, south of there again before heading north on the west side? Next six hours seems critical in which scenerio is gonna play..
"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger
With pressure down to category 3 status, it might get the winds near that point as well at 4 p.m.
I'm thinking Paloma will strengthen well today into tonight. The eye earlier looked like a dangerous pinhole eye, usually indicates strengthening to the system.
251. 786
Well going East may be better for those on the W but worse for those on the East if the island. NHC's latest graph has Central and East Cayman with a higher prob. of H-force winds,we'll have to see what the 4pm forecast advisory is
252. 786
great.. power surge, will be back
Kman - just checking on you because it's been a while.

Please post if you can.
Quoting reedzone:
With pressure down to category 3 status, it might get the winds near that point as well at 4 p.m.
I'm thinking Paloma will strengthen well today into tonight. The eye earlier looked like a dangerous pinhole eye, usually indicates strengthening to the system.


Category 3 pressure is in the low 960's to mid 950's....Were not even close to that yet. Relax..
two story school collaspe in port de prince 2 adults dead not known but usually 700 children inside just released on the news sad
Once/IF that eye pokes through on DVORAK satellite the Tnumbers will spike to near 6.0.

It was interesting looking at the Ship Locator and finding the Bounty located about 150 miles to the east of Paloma. She is a replica of the tall sail ship from the movie munity on the Bounty.
Quoting Seastep:
Kman - just checking on you because it's been a while.

Please post if you can.


Hi, I was taking a break. The data from the aircraft confirms my thinking from a couple of hrs ago that Paloma will likely slide by Grand Cayman just off East End. The center fix places the center 180 degrees to the South of George Town which is my location at 18.4N 81.4W. On a NNE track and being 64 miles South of us I expect the eye will just miss the island to the East. Grand Cayman is only 22 miles long so once it gets to 81 it will be past us.

Keep your fingers crossed for us.

Torrential rain here now and winds picking up.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi, I was taking a break. The data from the aircraft confirms my thinking from a couple of hrs ago that Paloma will likely slide by Grand Cayman just of East End. The center fix places the center 180 degrees to the South of George Town which is my location at 18.4N 81.4W. On a NNE track and being 64 miles South of us I expect the eye will just miss the island to the East. Grand Cayman is only 22 miles long so once it gets to 81 it will be past us.

Keep your fingers crossed for us.

Torrential rain here now and winds picking up.


Concentric eyewall may be forming which may increase the diameter of Hurricane winds. I'm sure you'll stay informed though.
kmanislander- in my prayers..good luck!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Concentric eyewall may be forming which may increase the diameter of Hurricane winds. I'm sure you'll stay informed though.


Yes, I noticed that but it doesn't have long before it reaches our Latitude at 19.3.

My real concern now is that if it passes between us and our sister islands they may be facing a strengthening Cat 3 on the dirty side of the system
Thanks kman. Will do.

Hoping it is, in fact, going through an EWRC and it's past you before it is done.

Actually fits quite well with the NHC intensity forecast. But, not all good news on that... brings it close to your sister islands as a major. :(

More N track or sharp turn E would be much better.
Quoting foggymyst:
kmanislander- in my prayers..good luck!


Thanks. We have had a lot of practice this season so I am sure everyone here is prepared and hunkered down.
Quoting lawntonlookers:
It was interesting looking at the Ship Locator and finding the Bounty located about 150 miles to the east of Paloma. She is a replica of the tall sail ship from the movie munity on the Bounty.


Bet she didn't bargain on this ride.

HMS Bounty web site with current location.
N 1721', W 07950'


Paloma center fix - 1823'N 8124'W (18.3833N 81.4W)
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, I noticed that but it doesn't have long before it reaches our Latitude at 19.3.

My real concern now is that if it passes between us and our sister islands they may be facing a strengthening Cat 3 on the dirty side of the system


It's all in the hands of the great Mother Nature. I have my fingers crossed for ya, stay safe.
Quoting Seastep:
Thanks kman. Will do.

Hoping it is, in fact, going through an EWRC and it's past you before it is done.

Actually fits quite well with the NHC intensity forecast. But, not all good news on that... brings it close to your sister islands as a major. :(

More N track or sharp turn E would be much better.


Not North please LOL
Click to enlarge








Quoting leftovers:
two story school collaspe in port de prince 2 adults dead not known but usually 700 children inside just released on the news sad
Count is now up to Ten bodies. So very sad.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Bet she didn't bargain on this ride.

HMS Bounty web site with current location.


I was thinking the same thing when I saw it and checked the web site. RECON just flew to the west of Bounty and had 40 mph surface winds. I am sure they are having a rough ride, and a ride for the money.
LATEST COMPUTER MODELS
There has been a major change in the computer models. No longer forecasted by models to escape to sea. It seems like the models predict high pressure to build over Paloma after crossing Cuba and move westward.

Will be back a bit later, subject to availabilty of internet.
NHC might have to show or at least mention the turn around. The only 2 models continuing the storm on are the LGEM and BAMMD.

Quoting lawntonlookers:


I was thinking the same thing when I saw it and checked the web site. RECON just flew to the west of Bounty and had 40 mph surface winds. I am sure they are having a rough ride, and a ride for the money.


Just checked her schedule.

October 2008
October 15 - Underway from Costa Rica to Galapagos
October 25 - arrival Galapagos
October 29 - Underway for Panama Canal

November 2008
November 7 - Arrival Panama Canal
November 9 - through Panama Canal
November 25 - December 7 - Baton Rouge- USS Kidd Museum


Hundreds of ships from that era lost at sea to storms. Godspeed to the Bounty.
Now that the eye has popped out on IR, Paloma should start to steadily strengthen to category 3 status. Some models have it stalling and turning west, few have it heading straight out to sea. We'll have to see what happens. If it hits Florida, it will probably be a Tropical Storm or Depression.. probably weaker due to wind shear.
just bounced in thinking I was having a bad day and found a hurricane....

ummm but on the lighter side...anyone heard from stormkat? Didn't she say the season was over back in August? ROFLMAO
Getting kinda interesting...

Quoting tiggeriffic:
just bounced in thinking I was having a bad day and found a hurricane....

ummm but on the lighter side...anyone heard from stormkat? Didn't she say the season was over back in August? ROFLMAO


He said also said there would only be seven storms the whole season with just one major hurricane. I think he was a "little" off!
Paloma encompassed in dry air....


weatherblog...stormkat is a chic...at least I hope so anyway...refers to StormW as "dear" all the time....
Quoting PcolaDan:

<


From Bounty site discussion.

margaretramsey
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Paloma?!?!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:41 am
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:29 pm
Posts: 46
The ship is very aware of the storm and has been for the last week. The storm has been churning for about a week now and has just formed into a hurricane. The captain is holding back and very much aware of her track. We are waiting for her to pass. Other then some flu like sickness aboard the ship which they caught while leaving the Galapagos all is well on board. I am in contact with the Captain eveyday. You should know the Captain is well versed in Hurricanes. Prior to driving Bounty he used to evacuate the final crew from oil riggs when hurricanes were coming in. I will keep you informed as I know more.

Margaret
Paloma = Pidgeon in Spanish; they do tend to fly rather erratically at times, but, I don't buy a significant shift to the West; throw all the longer term models out of the window until we see how much the storm is affected by passage over Cuba and in what shape she is in afterwards......
saying a prayer for Kman....and everyone else in it's path
ok...bouncing out for a bit...bbl I hope
k man you are the one who said earlier in the yr nov storms are hard to forecast good luck
Unfortunately I was right.....

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2008 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 18:33:15 N Lon : 81:29:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 985.5mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.0 4.5 5.5


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -22.1C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
017L/H/P/C2
EYE WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER GRAND CAYMAN
Quoting tiggeriffic:
weatherblog...stormkat is a chic...at least I hope so anyway...refers to StormW as "dear" all the time....


Oh, I didn't know that. lol
Hope alls well in the Caymans by afternoon to night time tomorrow it should be completely over for those of u in the GC isle

watch out for any debris tho

stay safe and good luck!
Intense convection going off near the eye...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
017L/H/P/C2
EYE WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER GRAND CAYMAN
Looks that way to me too and looks like getting stronger. Flt level winds 106 kts. EE very windy now and pouring.
pinhole eye alert! lol
Quoting PcolaDan:


From Bounty site discussion.

margaretramsey
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Paloma?!?!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:41 am
Offline

Joined: Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:29 pm
Posts: 46
The ship is very aware of the storm and has been for the last week. The storm has been churning for about a week now and has just formed into a hurricane. The captain is holding back and very much aware of her track. We are waiting for her to pass. Other then some flu like sickness aboard the ship which they caught while leaving the Galapagos all is well on board. I am in contact with the Captain eveyday. You should know the Captain is well versed in Hurricanes. Prior to driving Bounty he used to evacuate the final crew from oil riggs when hurricanes were coming in. I will keep you informed as I know more.

Margaret


Thanks. I just emailed Margarer and asked her this question.
HH inbound again

Nothing interesting on those models....Even if paloma were to attempt coming back it will get ripped to shreds based on the forcasted upper-level conditions.

Adrian
Hate to say this but...These are starting to look like hot towers.

Hey all, looking at the forecast points it looks like we will miss the eyes direct passage over Grand Cayman (if the storm continues to move north with this eastern element). This would however, probably not be enough to keep us out of the western eyewall.
hate to ask but what are hot towers
Another look....
Holy moley the RAW just went up to Category 3 status.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
hate to ask but what are hot towers


They're intense thunderstorms that fuel rapid intensification. Im not sure if Paloma has them but they're starting to resemble them.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Holy moley the RAW just went up to Category 3 status.


LOL...I said that it would a half hour ago.
305. IKE
Checking back in...to me, Paloma still looks headed right for Grand Cayman based on the visible floater loop. Hope I'm wrong.
Thanks stormchaser.
60mph surface winds over 60 miles from center.
usually when you see dry air getting funnelled into a system limits intensification this time unfornately that does not seem likely
Starting to look better...
017L/H/P/C3
EST POS
18.4n/81.3w
on the way to cat 3 MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
after which on ward to s cen cuba were it will rapidly lose its hurricane status either just after landfall on cuba or just after passage from cuba steady as she goes maintaining coarse
hold on cayman islanders its looks to be a bit rough to say the least its a screaming banshee
Quoting StormW:
300. stormwatcherCI 2:26 PM EST on November 07, 2008
hate to ask but what are hot towers


A hot tower is a cumulonimbus cloud that rises or shoots up out of the troposphere, and into the stratosphere becuase of the lrage amount of latent heat released. These generally show up when a hurricane is about to intensify.


So Storm...Do you think these thunderstorms around Paloma's eye are Hot Towers?
Deep convection going off in Paloma.
000
URNT12 KNHC 071814 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172008
A. 07/17:57:20Z
B. 18 deg 23 min N
081 deg 24 min W
C. NA mb 2882 m
D. 68 kt
E. 285 deg 015 nm
F. 044 deg 063 kt
G. 297 deg 027 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 010 C/ 3047 m
J. 14 C/ 3050 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN SSW
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0517A PALOMA OB 06 CCA
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND 106KTS SE QUAD 18:00:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 275 / 8NM
RADAR INDICATED POSSIBLE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL FORMING.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL...I said that it would a half hour ago.


I know you did, but still its a shock to see it happen still.
Damn looks like Paloma want to stay on a more N course, the wind is howling horribly!
Quoting leftovers:
usually when you see dry air getting funnelled into a system limits intensification this time unfornately that does not seem likely


That's because dry air is not getting into the core.
How's the movement?

last time I checked it was N but now it has a tiny E movement to her

someone correct me if I'm wrong
Even if Paloma jogs just east of Grand Cayman, it'll still be subject to the western eyewall. Stay safe.
:
017L/H/P/C3
EST POS
18.4n/81.3w
on the way to cat 3 MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
after which on ward to s cen cuba were it will rapidly lose its hurricane status either just after landfall on cuba or just after passage from cuba steady as she goes maintaining coarse
hold on cayman islanders its looks to be a bit rough to say the least its a screaming banshee
321. IKE
Quoting stormpetrol:
Damn looks like Paloma want to stay on a more N course, the wind is howling horribly!


Looking at satellite, ya'll are soon to get into the worst of Paloma. Unless it veers right ASAP, Grand Cayman is fixing to take a bad hit.
Wow...Looking better. Recon might find some surprising things.
Looks to me like Paloma will follow kman's predicted path of clipping the E end of the island.
R.I.S.
rapidly intensifying system
Wow indeed
Also going to be interesting to see if NHC path holds up. She's gonna have to make a sharp turn not too long from now to hit the "M" mark.
my god, this thing is a monster. Was the option ever there for the residents of the Caymans to fly out?
anyone in GC (Grand Cayman) still online and are you getting some surges (power wise)?
332. IKE
This is tough to watch. Good folks down there. I'll say a prayer.
Quoting StormW:
kman...and all in her path...prayers are with you!


Hi Storm

Still a wait and see situation here. Conditions not too bad on the SW coast at the moment. I still think the eye will pass just off the Eastern end of the island. Now that a motion off to the NNE has started I am hoping that it will become more pronounced soon.

The Western eye wall will do some damage but not as much as the right front quadrant would have.
Recon closing in...Gonna be watching it closely.
I hope those residents on Grand Cayman are well prepared for perhaps a category four storm which appears to be the top end of this storm, although a period of rapid intensification could get her to a cat 5, which is not likely but possible, I'll pray for you all, and may God be with you.

Paloma looks like a menace and taking on that appearance of a storm that means business.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
anyone in GC (Grand Cayman) still online and are you getting some surges (power wise)?


As of half an hr ago power was still on all over the island
GOES-E CONUS Visible Satellite Data is in rapid scan mode for Paloma. Updates every 8 minutes.
It's going rapid now
Starting to drop.

969.1 mb
(~ 28.62 inHg)

Hey guys,

Very very windy here in GC and solid rainfall. My house is located by a canal behind 7 mile and the canal is definitely rising. Can anyone tell me when to expect the worst of the storm? Thanks.
Winds in the Eastern quadrant are around 90 mph...Winds in the Western quadrant must be around 110-115 mph.
343. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Starting to drop.

969.1 mb
(~ 28.62 inHg)



Jeez....that last updated satellite(1940UTC), offers some hope, like KMAN has been saying, for the western side of the island if it will veer NNE.
best of luck Kmanislander

hope alls well for everyone there

PS I heard from some that water had been shut off tho Y?
Holy smokes were down in the 960's according to recon.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
best of luck Kmanislander

hope alls well for everyone there

PS I heard from some that water had been shut off tho Y?


When Ivan hit us the sea broke a lot of the mains as most of the roads are near the water. A lot of water was lost and because we make our water through desalination it took several days to restore service. So, they shut of the water now as a precaution to conserve it
Without a doubt now that she's in rapid mode
I'm starting to see a Stadium effect in Paloma's eye.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Storm

Still a wait and see situation here. Conditions not too bad on the SW coast at the moment. I still think the eye will pass just off the Eastern end of the island. Now that a motion off to the NNE has started I am hoping that it will become more pronounced soon.

The Western eye wall will do some damage but not as much as the right front quadrant would have.


You should be getting into the inner core winds here shortly. Eye will be completely surrounded by intense T-Storms shortly as well. Definitely ramping up quick.
Quoting TaminFLA:
my god, this thing is a monster. Was the option ever there for the residents of the Caymans to fly out?

Tourists/Visitors tend to get priority and the seats available are taken up very quickly - warnings were out out early yesterday "If u do not have a ticket - do not bother there are no seats"
There is only so much that the airlines can do in rapidly deteriorating conditions until they have to do a last flight to somewhere safe for the aircraft.
So if u live here it is essentially a case of get out really early, have a friend with a corporate jet, work for a company who charter an aircraft for their workers or - stay.
Nearby thunderstorms tampering with the eye.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Winds in the Eastern quadrant are around 90 mph...Winds in the Western quadrant must be around 110-115 mph.
the worst will be when darkness falls till just after midnight
Dropsone found 90 MPH winds in the Eastern part of the eyewall, I think Paloma's atleast 105 MPH.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


You should be getting into the inner core winds here shortly. Eye will be completely surrounded by intense T-Storms shortly as well. Definitely ramping up quick.


Well at least Paloma will soon be passing by us. With the pressure dropping like that it could reach high end cat 3 / borderline 4 before reaching Cuba
Back later
Hi everyone,

I cannot believe I am going to ask a question about a hurricane on Nov 7th! That is crazy.

now the question... the track shows storm going NE.. been consistent..but the individual models h ave been sort of funny.. a few yesterday showing a curve back or down or down and around toward west?

today most of them appear to be showing something like that.. is this storm going to make it straight out to the NE or is something funny going to happen in a few days???

I would appreciate any information you may have or just your thoughts.. will be back to read then later (still at work)
Thanks,
Gams
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the worst will be when darkness falls till just after midnight


Nothing worse than an intensifying storm at night. Im not a real religious man but tonight ill say a prayer for everyone down there.
Wow. How many times do ya see a major cane in
November. (well not yet but by 5pm its a definite
possibility)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dropsone found 90 MPH winds in the Eastern part of the eyewall, I think Paloma's atleast 105 MPH.


4pm complete advisory will be interesting.
kman, you still have power? I caw creg posted in while ago they were in watch and wait mode.

good luck to you..
hey kman hope all will be well for ya
Quoting kmanislander:
Back later

In case CUC let u down and u csnnot get back on internet - stay safe
364. IKE
Owen Roberts, GC (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 8 sec ago
Rain
75 °F
Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 36 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 50 mph
Pressure: 29.62 in (Falling)
Visibility: -
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1200 ft
Overcast 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Wow. How many times do ya see a major cane in
November. (well not yet but by 5pm its a definite
possibility)


Advisory will be out at 4pm.
Quoting kmanislander:


Well at least Paloma will soon be passing by us. With the pressure dropping like that it could reach high end cat 3 / borderline 4 before reaching Cuba


remains to be seen but ya it does look like this could a min cat 4 potiential

Paloma without a doubt should be a major moderate cat 3 no questions asked

PS Oh okay (in response to ur answer to my ?)
Quoting seflagamma:
kman, you still have power? I caw creg posted in while ago they were in watch and wait mode.

good luck to you..


Still got power, Kman lives about a mile from me, The Utility Company here doesn't cut the power until winds are sustained over 60mph for quite sometime, I could be wrong and stand to be corrected.
Impressive.

I hope it doesn't intensify that much. Whole new ballgame.

Not trying to scare (Cuba's affects aren't considered here), just info, but for all those speaking about the high shear to the N:

From WU wind shear tutorial:

Rules of thumb

A general rule of thumb is that the shear must be 20 knots or less for intensification to occur. Most instances of rapid intensification of hurricanes occur when the wind shear is 10 knots or less. However, large and powerful hurricanes can be resistant to shear values as high as 40 knots, as demonstrated by Hurricane Wilma (Figure 1). We often see tropical disturbances under 10 knots of wind shear that do not develop. Why? Oftentimes, this is because cold, dry air aloft associated with an upper level trough of low pressure is interfering with development. Tropical cyclones develop most readily when an upper level anticyclone (high pressure system aloft) is present overhead.
Hurricane Wilma Wind Shear



Figure 1. Wind shear plot of Hurricane Wilma at 00GMT October 25, 2005. At time time, Wilma had just intensified to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and a 955 mb pressure, despite the presence of 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. Just to the west of Wilma one can see wind shear values of 120 knots, associated with the jet stream.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 20:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2008
Storm Name: Paloma (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 19:43:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°34'N 81°21'W (18.5667N 81.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 51 miles (82 km) to the S (177°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,850m (9,350ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 150° at 90kts (From the SSE at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,024m (9,921ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 106kts (~ 122.0mph)
in the southeast quadrant at 18:01:00Z
Radar Presentation: Excellent
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL TEMP 18DEG C 220/07NM
CLEAR ABOVE AND BELOW IN CENTER
I think I heard that the power is going out at 7pm unless CUC cannot sustain any longer. Also, I still have water.......am with Cayman Water not Water Authority....
372. 7544
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Advisory will be out at 4pm.


now with the nhc baby gfdl showing paloma going back to the west at 22 to 25 lat. and now the tcvn will we see a differnt cone also
Pressure dropping in the Turks and Caicos:
Temperature: 80.0 °F / 26.7 °C
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 72 °F / 22 °C
Wind: 7.0 mph / 11.3 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the ENE
Wind Gust: 15.0 mph / 24.1 km/h /
Pressure: 29.79 in / 1008.7 hPa
Quoting 7544:


now with the nhc baby gfdl showing paloma going back to the west at 22 to 25 lat. and now the tcvn will we see a differnt cone also


Yeah...If it does decide to move west over cuba it will be decoupled by 50knots of shear.
If there was an EWRC going on it has certainly ended, now it apparently has an excellent radar presentation. I think we're looking at a Category 2 at least now. 970 MB? Impressive.
Oh my goodness, I just read back and cannot believe what I am seeing. this storm is getting so much stronger than we expected so quickly.

all you in the Caymen Islands... hang in there we are praying for you.. I know you are all very prepared and use to this but it still stinks.

I hope everyone prepared for a stronger storm as it looks like that is what is coming.


and what about those models turning back???
Like I said earlier She's in Rapid mode now
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If there was an EWRC going on it has certainly ended, now it apparently has an excellent radar presentation. I think we're looking at a Category 2 at least now. 970 MB? Impressive.


As you know im usually the conservative one lol....But at around 4pm we should see a 105mph Cat2 with 970mb pressure.
380. IKE
Looks due south of the western part of Grand Cayman...

very nice cdo with paloma
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


As you know im usually the conservative one lol....But at around 4pm we should see a 105mph Cat2 with 970mb pressure.


Looks like a good call to me
Extreme thunderstorms wrapping around the eye.


Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah...If it does decide to move west over cuba it will be decoupled by 50knots of shear.


I agree that is the most probable scenario were it to move that way.
What do u guys think?

at 4pm EST the NHC will still keep the same

trac but in the Forecast Discussion area they

will mention about the models turning it here

or there as a real possiblity
Quoting Seastep:


That is the most probable scenario were it to move that way.


Thankfully...its does look that way.
388. IKE
NEW BLOG!
389. 786
Back, storm surge is coming in slowly. Still have power have had the lights go off a couple times but still have electricity right now. The cable is still working too! better than it did during the cold front lol. Having on and off periods of heavy rain, pressure now 1001.7 and dropping at appx. 1.5mb/hr. Austained winds are now between 40-47 and gusts in the high 50's
Z99.9 Grand Cayman Just turned it on, mostly so far music.

Weather at the station:
rain
Humidity: 94%
Wind Speed: ENE 36 MPH G 49
Barometer: 1003 mb
Dewpoint: 23°C
Heat Index: 24°C
Wind Chill: 24°C

wow impressive
btw I know sometimes the NHC tends to give out advisories earlier than the intended time

what's the earliest they have done it?
stormchaser-just looked at 4pm update.105 mph expected to increase to 115. 40 miles south of GC. Expected to move near or through Cayman Islands
its getting nasty now guys....I would say sustained TS winds gusting into Cat 1...water everywhere...rain rate is unreal...and really starting to pick up...lights starting to flicker...surprised still on...took a drive around and minimal to no damage so far...just leaves and some smaller trees and limbs...but seas really picking up...anyway looks like most of the island will miss the peak winds...ok with that...but east end will get some more intense winds I am sure....but that can change in 40 miles...you just never know with these storms...anyway thanks to all for your kind words...its going to be a long night...