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Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.

Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.

A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:

The thing is, I think the heat content of the water in the Caribbean is actually magnified by a cooling upper atmosphere. Some of our strongest storms have come late, for this very reason, I suspect. As we saw with Mitch and Wilma, that contrast can be explosive and/or deadly.
The infusion of cool air reached all the way down to the southern Carribean. Thus lower SST will result. I have been watching the western Carribean since Nicole left and convection has been way down. Therefore I do not expect any hurricanes from this area in the remainder of the season. 98L will not become a Mitch or Wilma.
Quoting Grothar:


Nah, just a little weather maker.


Coming from the Western Caribbean? I expect more than a weather maker.
A hurricane is a powerful storm system with a large low pressure center that produces intense winds and heavy rainfall.
95B wrecking havoc


At least ten people were killed in the coastal areas of Bangladesh
in the storm that has been whipped up by deep depression in the
Bay of Bengal, reports reaching Dhaka yesterday said.
Hundreds of fishermen are still reported missing.
Quoting caneswatch:


Coming from the Western Caribbean? I expect more than a weather maker.


Don't argue with your elders.
Quoting Grothar:


Can't you see the images? I can. Refresh your page again, or do you have one of those old PC from 1984? How you doing, pot??

LOL.
Can see all images but those...

Not quite 1984, but pretty close.
And, please, it's an Apple, dont you know...

Doing good.
Went to bed. Couldnt sleep. Prowling around in here and some other places too.

Tropics dont look too threatening at the moment. Even the Glob of rain to my east has gone away..
Quoting Grothar:


Can't you see the images? I can. Refresh your page again, or do you have one of those old PC from 1984? How you doing, pot??



Sorry Grothar, I have to say, I can't see them either. Evening to you, Sir. Pottery, how goes it?
Quoting Grothar:


Don't argue with your elders.


I never argue with you lol. Going to a certain game tomorrow?
Latest Blog Update at 11:15PM CDT on Otto, AZ Hail & Tornadoes, Portlight and North Texas Weather:Link
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Sorry Grothar, I have to say, I can't see them either. Evening to you, Sir. Pottery, how goes it?

Excellent!
And your Goodself?
Quoting caneswatch:


I never argue with you lol. Going to a certain game tomorrow?


Who told you???
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The infusion of cool air reached all the way down to the southern Carribean. Thus lower SST will result. I have been watching the western Carribean since Nicole left and convection has been way down. Therefore I do not expect any hurricanes from this area in the remainder of the season. 98L will not become a Mitch or Wilma.

I have to agree with you on this.
But I will not say so, publicly....
heheheheh
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
5:30 AM IST October 9 2010
======================================

Subject: Low Pressure Area Over Bangladesh

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 over Bangladesh moved northeastwards and weakened to low pressure area. Low Pressure Area, Former Depression BOB02-2010 lays centered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizorum and Tripura and neighborhood.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on this system from the India Meteorological Department
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Sorry Grothar, I have to say, I can't see them either. Evening to you, Sir. Pottery, how goes it?


Their updates from the current CIMSS, you really can't see them or are you pulling my walker??
Quoting pottery:

Excellent!
And your Goodself?



I am doing very well, thank you. I appreciate your input. A Goodself, back at ya! Hope the inclement weather is sparing you it's fury.
Quoting Grothar:


Who told you???


Oh just a guess lol. I will also be in attendance.
Quoting Grothar:


Their updates from the current CIMSS, you really can't see them or are you pulling my walker??



Good lord, I can hardly type, from laughing. Outstanding!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
shear to drop 20 to 25 kts bound by area from the channel east to bahamas and from west cuba isle of youth n to se fla pens. in 24 hrs


Forecast for my area in Jupiter, FL is to be back to the east to southeast flow starting Monday. I was kinda enjoying the cool down however, it is only Oct 9th.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I am doing very well, thank you. I appreciate your input. A Goodself, back at ya! Hope the inclement weather is sparing you it's fury.

Well, we had our share of heavy rains and some winds down here. Some areas lost roofs, some landslides and localized flooding.
But right now it is clear and looks like it will be that way for a while.
Drying out nicely, before the next onslaught...
Quoting caneswatch:


Oh just a guess lol. I will also be in attendance.


What row?
Quoting pottery:

Well, we had our share of heavy rains and some winds down here. Some areas lost roofs, some landslides and localized flooding.
But right now it is clear and looks like it will be that way for a while.
Drying out nicely, before the next onslaught...


Wow, our best wishes for those affected. A sobering reminder.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Good lord, I can hardly type, from laughing. Outstanding!


Blog needed a little comedy relief. Pot is not keeping up his end of the bargain here. He is always good for at least one good zap! He has left a few slip by him tonight.
524. 7544
Quoting RufusBaker:
will 98 see FL?


cmc says a short stay se fl

so maybe Link
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The infusion of cool air reached all the way down to the southern Carribean. Thus lower SST will result. I have been watching the western Carribean since Nicole left and convection has been way down. Therefore I do not expect any hurricanes from this area in the remainder of the season. 98L will not become a Mitch or Wilma.


Convection has been reduced due to the stalled trough off the east coast creating high shear in the region. Things will be back to normal soon, look at 98L, it's a sign of the change. Even the NHC states conditions will become more favorable in a day or two.
Quoting Grothar:


What row?


IDK what section or row yet, i'll let you know in the morning.
According to my Callendar, Sunday will be 10/10/10.
How come we have not been put on High Anxiety for this???
Surely computers will explode and planes will fall out of the sky like dried leaves, and we are all DOOM.

Has no one noticed????
Quoting pottery:

I have to agree with you on this.
But I will not say so, publicly....
heheheheh
Thanks, pottery. It's alright if you keep it private.
And SST's will remain well above the threshold for Hurricane formation. I seem to recall a couple Major's this year and years past doing the ditty in sub par sst's.

SST's are only one piece of the puzzle.
I never saw an eye described as tilted so much. 35 miles between the mid and low level circulations. That is just so odd!
Quoting Grothar:


Blog needed a little comedy relief. Pot is not keeping up his end of the bargain here. He is always good for at least one good zap! He has left a few slip by him tonight.

Sorry!
Will try to behave properly in future.
heheheheh
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Thanks, pottery. It's alright if you keep it private.

:)
Quoting pottery:
According to my Callendar, Sunday will be 10/10/10.
How come we have not been put on High Anxiety for this???
Surely computers will explode and planes will fall out of the sky like dried leaves, and we are all DOOM.

Has no one noticed????
At 10:10 AM I will be in church saying my prayers. :)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
At 10:10 AM I will be in church saying my prayers. :)

Good Plan.
I had not considered a time frame.
10:10/10/10/10 MUST mean SOMETHING...
Morning night shift....coffee is ready....hope all doing well!!
Quoting Grothar:


Blog needed a little comedy relief. Pot is not keeping up his end of the bargain here. He is always good for at least one good zap! He has left a few slip by him tonight.


He did let the wind out of my sails. But, I did ask for a report. I'm torn, now. I guess some humor keeps us sane, in the face of hardship. We all have our crosses to bear.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.


Why Rich?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.

????
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.


YO! Where do you think you're going?
Quoting traumaboyy:
Morning night shift....coffee is ready....hope all doing well!!
Good morning traumaboyy! Haven't seen you here lately. Been on vacation?
Have a nice life! Later!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.
B&C, if that was intended for Rich..............
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.
WTF? Your in this for the long haul.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Good morning traumaboyy! Haven't seen you here lately. Been on vacation?


Mornin Kerry....only visit here when i am at work and been dam buzy lately!!

Howz Elway??
Well, the Unexpected Drama has quite exhausted me...
Until another day then.

Hi, Trauma.
Hope you have a tranquil night.

Take care, Kerry.

Be safe, all.



I'm out to watch Formula One qualifying, then bed. Have a nice night everyone!
Quoting pottery:
Well, the Unexpected Drama has quite exhausted me...
Until another day then.

Hi, Trauma.
Hope you have a tranquil night.

Take care, Kerry.

Be safe, all.


Hey Pottery!!
Bye Pottery!!
TropicalStormOtto
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv..#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09pmGMT - - 26.8n62.3w - - 80mph - - - 976mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
9Oct 12amGMT - - 27.2n61.7w - - 75knots - - 972mb -- NHC-ATCF
9Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - - - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
9Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 24.4n66.1w, 24.8n65.5w, 25.4n64.6w, 25.9n64.0w, 26.3n63.1w-26.8n62.3w, 26.8n62.3w-27.2n61.7w, 27.2n61.7w-27.8n60.8w, 27.8n60.8w-28.5n59.7w, ngd, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
test
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.



Wtf. Really ? that's awful.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Somebody is playing a joke on you. No way all those people could be together in a conspiracy. B&C was here a little while ago. Maybe he can shed some light.


They can be if many of them are one and the same. (The name "Legion" familiar to any of you Bible readers?)

Some troll with an inferiority complex, knowing he lacks the brains and talent to add anything substantive to the world in general or this blog in particular, lashes out the only way his immature and dark little mind will allow him: by striking out at those who do have those brains and that talent. He figures that since he's unable to elevate himself, he'll do the next best thing: try to bring down others better than him.

It's all very sad, really, that Rich has been targeted by this "many as one" multi. Good-natured ribbing over forecasting skills is one thing; slander, libel, theft, sabotage, and character assasination are quite another.

Petty, pathetic, lonely, sad little cyber-terrorists have always been the scourge of the internet. It'd be nice were they ever to get a life or a clue, but, unfortunately, that's not likely to happen.

Pity...
563. IKE
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The handles IHHEOTBS/Hauntstown/Angrypartsguy/Tacomaman/PSLCaneVet/unruly/toddluck/BreadandCircuses/Legion/Richl andStrangler/StormyGace/NavarreMark and others stole my pictures and put them on gay sex and escort sites like gay.com/MANHUNT/adam4adam/recon with all sorts of kinky additions to the ads, that I'm into scat and whatnot, and also that I'm HIV+ and like bareback. Just too damn much. Goodbye.

Man up guy, change your avatar pic and stay in. If you leave they win. It would be exactly what they want. They don't have a life so they want to destroy what other people enjoy. Don't allow it. Your comments are very valued here, don't let them win.
Quoting IKE:
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....


I agree with you. The dry season is in full force. Not to say that there won't be a change in the pattern 10 days from now but for now the pattern looks like we might be out of the woods!
Shields up!!
566. IKE
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I agree with you. The dry season is in full force. Not to say that there won't be a change in the pattern 10 days from now but for now the pattern looks like we're finally out of the woods!


If you live along the northern GOM, I don't think we were ever in the woods in 2010. From north of Brownsville, TX. all the way to Fort Myers, FL.

GFS...day 7....168 hours....




ECMWF...day 7....168 hours....



Key West Weather Says

THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL FLOW...PROVIDING LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
SQUASH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT A BIT OF COOLING ALOFT AND ELIMINATION OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROODING AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN
WILL BE ABLE TO DRAFT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE KEYS AREA.
THIS EVOLUTION JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO GENTLE TO MODERATE AS
THE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS CLOSER TO CUBA.
And on a side note

Florida's agriculture commissioner is warning that a lack of tropical storms is contributing to dry condition ripe for wildfires in the months ahead

Typical La Nina results for Florida

From the Miami Herald

Miami NWS Discussion:

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S FLA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT IN THE SHORT
TERM THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE REGION AS MAIN TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
LIFTS NORTHEAST. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BRINGING WITH IT LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE
EXTENDED GOING INTO THE WEEK AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO
INCH ITS WAY NORTHWARD AND THIS DEPICTED BY THE GFS, ECMWF AND THE
NAM. THE SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS
WILL BEGIN LACKING THE ABILITY TO TRAP INTO MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF THE PENINSULA. SO
ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS IT IS LOOKING TO HAVE IN OUR VICINITY IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LOW
TOPPED SHRA IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALSO COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE
IS FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER MAJOR TROUGH WILL SET UP LATE
IN THE WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PUSH THIS MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH BUT ONCE AGAIN.
Quoting IKE:
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....



Mornin IKE!..could you please do a rain dance for us??
573. IKE
Quoting traumaboyy:


Mornin IKE!..could you please do a rain dance for us??


Chances are slim when the next cold front comes through. Could be none for the next 10 days.

Somebody turned the water faucet off.
Quoting IKE:


Chances are slim when the next cold front comes through. Could be none for the next 10 days.

Somebody turned the water faucet off.


Thats why all the Red flag warnings are out for over half the state from the Lake North and Westward
As 98 Moves North ( If it does) and maybe NE wont the Front and troff start to impart more shear on the system as it gets further North
Morning IKE.
hey guys boy 98L looks bad for us here in Grand Cayman if it follows intensity models



It's very good to see that the dry air is finally getting ready to leave our area...and good riddance. Talk about overstaying one's welcome. :-)

Hard to believe, but the lowest relative humidity levels in the entire CONUS this morning are at the southern tip of Florida now that the omega blocking pattern has released its grip and a more seasonal and wet pattern is coming back, even if only for a short while. I, for one, will be happy to be back to normal humidity levels and chances of rain, even if that does re-open us to the possibility of a landfalling TC. As I've said before, I'd rather deal with the slight chance of a direct TC strike than the disturbingly dessicating effects of a week's-long regional drought. Winter with its months of dry and cool air will be here soon enough; I'm not one to want to rush it, so I plan to enjoy the warmth and moisture while I can.

52 days left in the season, huh? Good thing we're on the downhill side of things; in the past 52 days, we've gone 12-7-5...
580. IKE
Quoting Keys99:
As 98 Moves North ( If it does) and maybe NE wont the Front and troff start to impart more shear on the system as it gets further North


Here's the 120 hour shear from the GFS....

581. IKE
Quoting WeatherMum:
Morning IKE.


Good morning.

............................................

Here's the 3 day quantitative precipitation forecast for the lower 48, through Tuesday morning....




Days 4 and 5....

582. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Good Morning...
Thanks IKE The Graphs you Posted answered my question.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Link

Link
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101009 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101009 0600 101009 1800 101010 0600 101010 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 78.6W 14.5N 79.4W 14.8N 80.4W 15.4N 81.6W
BAMD 14.0N 78.6W 14.8N 79.1W 15.7N 79.6W 16.8N 79.9W
BAMM 14.0N 78.6W 14.6N 79.1W 15.4N 79.8W 16.3N 80.6W
LBAR 14.0N 78.6W 14.7N 78.8W 16.2N 79.3W 18.1N 79.5W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101011 0600 101012 0600 101013 0600 101014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 82.6W 16.9N 85.5W 18.0N 88.5W 16.9N 91.8W
BAMD 17.8N 80.1W 19.7N 81.3W 22.9N 81.8W 26.1N 74.3W
BAMM 17.2N 81.3W 19.0N 83.5W 21.2N 85.6W 22.5N 85.3W
LBAR 20.6N 79.0W 26.3N 74.7W 30.7N 63.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 46KTS 43KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 46KTS 43KTS
Looks like it only has it up to 47 kts.
trying to post a cool otto photo using a droid phone,photos downloaded to wu, but theirs no image insert or link buttons???,anyone have any ideas if its possible froma droidphone??
Morning everyone. All eyes on 98L, this has a slim chance at impacting South Florida. Again, Hurricane Season is NOT over and we do need to watch for late activity as well. The Caribbean and the open Atlantic is the place for about 2 or 3 more systems. Even in November, we can get a Hurricane, Ida proved that last year, even moved north.
Link


Crown Weather TWD for this morning.
Quoting reedzone:
Morning everyone. All eyes on 98L, this has a slim chance at impacting South Florida. Again, Hurricane Season is NOT over and we do need to watch for late activity as well. The Caribbean and the open Atlantic is the place for about 2 or 3 more systems. Even in November, we can get a Hurricane, Ida proved that last year, even moved north.
Crown Weather says one of the models is showing development on Monday and then for it to ramp up quickly.
I'm sorry I have to say this... Admin, that was plain rude blocking StSimonsIslandGAGuy comments for just saying he was leaving and why. Sorry, that was plain rude. Everything has changed non wunderground for the bad, we lost another good blogger.
Just saw on the news that the rescuers have broken through the ceiling of the area where the Chilean miners have been stuck since August 5. That's a long time; to remind WU folks of just how long, when they became trapped, TS Colin was regenerating 48 hours after being downgraded to a TD.

Here's to a quick and safe extraction of all those workers...
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crown Weather says one of the models is showing development on Monday and then for it to ramp up quickly.


I still think there's a chance for at least Florida to be impacted by a storm. Climatology agrees with me. You can't just let your guard down when you see some fall air, things can happen, unexpected things. You wait and see, watch something scare the USA one more time this year.
594. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link


Crown Weather TWD for this morning.


The NAM model? LOL.
For those who keep posting over and over and over again day after day that the GOM is in the clear (especially the northern half) - We get it. Let's focus on our friends down in the Caribbean who is going to be impacted by one or two storms over the next 2-3 weeks.
Quoting reedzone:


I still think there's a chance for at least Florida to be impacted by a storm. Climatology agrees with me. You can't just let your guard down when you see some fall air, things can happen, unexpected things. You wait and see, watch something scare the USA one more time this year.
Crown Weather mentions a possibility also.
Quoting IKE:


The NAM model? LOL.
The latest HWRF model (06Z) just came out and it is similar to the previous run and forecasts that this system will not really get going until Sunday night or Monday morning, but when it does, it rapidly intensifies.

Is this the NAM model ? IDK
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The latest HWRF model (06Z) just came out and it is similar to the previous run and forecasts that this system will not really get going until Sunday night or Monday morning, but when it does, it rapidly intensifies.

Is this the NAM model ? IDK


Because you put life into a tropical system, you will be mocked and attacked on here.. Just go with the flow. The HWRF model could be right, think about Paloma and how she intensified, IN NOVEMBER!
599. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The latest HWRF model (06Z) just came out and it is similar to the previous run and forecasts that this system will not really get going until Sunday night or Monday morning, but when it does, it rapidly intensifies.

Is this the NAM model ? IDK


No...there different models.

If I was a tropical forecaster I would not mention the NAM model. It is not a tropical model.
600. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


Because you put life into a tropical system, you will be mocked and attacked on here.. Just go with the flow. The HWRF model could be right, think about Paloma and how she intensified, IN NOVEMBER!


Man...you need to calm down...way down. But...it's your style on here.

Have a good day everyone. Going to be productive and wash the bird-dodo off of my car.
Good Morning -
LOL - hummm IKE - you certainly got my attention first thing
Quoting IKE:
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....


comment edited - sorry Neapolitan - they play rough
Quoting IKE:


No...there different models.

If I was a tropical forecaster I would not mention the NAM model. It is not a tropical model.
Is the HWRF a tropical model ?
Quoting reedzone:


Because you put life into a tropical system, you will be mocked and attacked on here.. Just go with the flow. The HWRF model could be right, think about Paloma and how she intensified, IN NOVEMBER!
Don't worry, I remember.
does the upper level wind forecast in 2 weeks for the northern GOM state 60-90 kt winds? I heard that from someone. That sounds a bit extreme to me but I am not sure. Basically he is rationalizing that there is no way Invest 98L can make it above South Florida regardless of the track the invest takes.
as far as I know stormwatcherCI HWRF is a Tropical model
Quoting Keys99:
As 98 Moves North ( If it does) and maybe NE wont the Front and troff start to impart more shear on the system as it gets further North



The trough is being torn apart now. Otto has effectively lifted it away from the eastern seaboard and it is a frail remnant of what it was yesterday. Night low temp's here in north GOM last night were approx. 15 degrees warmer than the previous night, and daytime temp's were in the high 80's yesterday. The trough you are speaking of is gone, for the most part
Good morning, everyone. Hurricane happening in my house as I clean before my son comes home on Monday night.
Hey Stillwaiting - not fishing today? -- looks like a lovely morning -- saw some good hits at TurtleBeach when we were surfing the North Wind swell a few days ago.

Starting to get ready for a run this morning - my skin misses the humidity, but not my lungs --always easier to run in the drier air.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Hurricane happening in my house as I clean before my son comes home on Monday night.

bawhahahahaa - that's been the scene here since number two headed off to college & number one moved to Galveston... didn't need any in the gulf this year -- got one going on domestically.
Hurricane OTTO.... OTTO ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't worry, I remember.


Geez, to my untrained eyes this looks like a potential Paloma all over again...
Good morning

The low in the SW Caribbean continues to try and organize and shear has fallen to a low 10 to 15 knots near and over the system. The trend has been falling shear for the past 24 hours and if this continues the upper level winds will become quite conducive for development during the day later today.



The one inhibitor I see that continues to plague the system is extremely dry air in close proximity throughout the NW Caribbean. Winds in this area are from the North which is pushing this very dry air into the circulation and disrupting it from strengthening. So far, it has been holding its own but would need to grow in aerial coverage before the convection would be sufficiently widespread to isolate the core of the low from the dry air.





The low has been building convection over the past few hours so we will have to watch the trend in this direction over the course of the day. If it does develop the people in the Cayman Islands may not get a lot of lead time to prepare so I would recommend that anyone living here take time today to check their hurricane preparedness list for any missing key items as stores will be closed tomorrow.
Quoting surfmom:

bawhahahahaa - that's been the scene here since number two headed off to college & number one moved to Galveston... didn't need any in the gulf this year -- got one going on domestically.


Number two coming home for good, he's a disabled vet and his wife is being deployed, they won't let him stay in Germany alone. House will be going through hurricane conditions for quite a while as he and wife are buying it and planning on a lot of changes, from Cat 1 up to Cat 5s.

Since there's a state wide burn ban, work in house will start first. Hurricane Cat 1 in forecast for end of week.
Quoting Caymanfishnut:


Geez, to my untrained eyes this looks like a potential Paloma all over again...


If the high pressure to the east of 98L holds (which the models say it will) this may not take as hard of an eastern turn around Cuba. The high pressure to the east in the Southern Atlantic region has set up and that may create more of a northern track to this storm, bringing it much closer to S.Florida or even bringing it into the peninsula.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The low in the SW Caribbean continues to try and organize and shear has fallen to a low 10 to 15 knots near and over the system. The trend has been falling shear for the past 24 hours and if this continues the upper level winds will become quite conducive for development during the day later today.



The one inhibitor I see that continues to plague the system is extremely dry air in close proximity throughout the NW Caribbean. Winds in this area are from the North which is pushing this very dry air into the circulation and disrupting it from strengthening. So far, it has been holding its own but would need to grow in aerial coverage before the convection would be sufficiently widespread to isolate the core of the low from the dry air.





The low has been building convection over the past few hours so we will have to watch the trend in this direction over the course of the day. If it does develop the people in the Cayman Islands may not get a lot of lead time to prepare so I would recommend that anyone living here take time today to check their hurricane preparedness list for any missing key items as stores will be closed tomorrow.


Thanks, Kman. Will this follow Otto's path?
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The low in the SW Caribbean continues to try and organize and shear has fallen to a low 10 to 15 knots near and over the system. The trend has been falling shear for the past 24 hours and if this continues the upper level winds will become quite conducive for development during the day later today.



The one inhibitor I see that continues to plague the system is extremely dry air in close proximity throughout the NW Caribbean. Winds in this area are from the North which is pushing this very dry air into the circulation and disrupting it from strengthening. So far, it has been holding its own but would need to grow in aerial coverage before the convection would be sufficiently widespread to isolate the core of the low from the dry air.





The low has been building convection over the past few hours so we will have to watch the trend in this direction over the course of the day. If it does develop the people in the Cayman Islands may not get a lot of lead time to prepare so I would recommend that anyone living here take time today to check their hurricane preparedness list for any missing key items as stores will be closed tomorrow.
Thanks for the heads-up but now you really have me nervous. Some of the models are showing RI once it develops.
ahhhhhh there YOU are Kman!...... *smile* was waiting for you to show -- you had your eye on this wayyy back if I remember correctly..... thanks for your insights
models predicting cat 1 system passing if not over Cayman area mmmmmmmmmmmm...... could be an interesting week
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The low in the SW Caribbean continues to try and organize and shear has fallen to a low 10 to 15 knots near and over the system. The trend has been falling shear for the past 24 hours and if this continues the upper level winds will become quite conducive for development during the day later today.



The one inhibitor I see that continues to plague the system is extremely dry air in close proximity throughout the NW Caribbean. Winds in this area are from the North which is pushing this very dry air into the circulation and disrupting it from strengthening. So far, it has been holding its own but would need to grow in aerial coverage before the convection would be sufficiently widespread to isolate the core of the low from the dry air.





The low has been building convection over the past few hours so we will have to watch the trend in this direction over the course of the day. If it does develop the people in the Cayman Islands may not get a lot of lead time to prepare so I would recommend that anyone living here take time today to check their hurricane preparedness list for any missing key items as stores will be closed tomorrow.



The way that Otto is venting south back into the Caribbean may help to end the onslaught of dry air from the north. It is also starting to warm up along the GOM northern coast, so the dry air should become more moist (hotter air=greater capacity for the air to hold moisture + weak high pressures warming up= moistening of the air). The trough has broken and the wind shear over the top of 98L is dropping rapidly.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thanks, Kman. Will this follow Otto's path?


I don't think so. If it develops the typical track this time of year would be N across Cuba and depending on the timing with the next front a swing to the NE through the Bahamas and off to the NE parallel to Otto's track. I stress though that with it still sitting down there any future track is too far out to be reliably forecasted at this time.

If a front were to dig far enough South it might even head out across Hispaniola to the NE which would then be more like the track of Otto from that point.
613 Kman. Thanks for your read on 98L. Another Paloma 'pop up' potential for us.When they intensify this close by, the prep' time is very short for us.On that note....off to get some diesel....
thats the GFDL and HWRF between the both say 80-105 Mph winds
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks for the heads-up but now you really have me nervous. Some of the models are showing RI once it develops.


RI is alwaya possible in the NW Caribbean as far as SST and TCHP is concerned but you also need good upper level support from winds and moisture content. Dry air has been a real killer for systems trying to develop this year and lots of that is present over the Cayman Islands.

I wouldn't get too worked up over it just yet.
Quoting surfmom:
Good Morning -
LOL - hummm IKE - you certainly got my attention first thing

Neapolitan - at the risk of coming under attack by the entity ....I applaud your post 561 -
...dont get to comphy....october is the month fl,especially the west coast is MOST vounerable to a TC.....and the theirs that mid oct bump around the 20th...here in swfl we're not quite out of the woods yet imo....any waves lately,lol(i already know the anwser
Quoting surfmom:
ahhhhhh there YOU are Kman!...... *smile* was waiting for you to show -- you had your eye on this wayyy back if I remember correctly..... thanks for your insights


Hi :-)

Yes, I have been watching this area from Monday. I hope it doesn't spoil my golf game tomorrow LOL !
Quoting cat5hurricane:



watching that loop it looks like some very minor moistening of the gulf has already begun, especially in the last 3 frames. It isn't rain or real damp, but it shows the warming trend has already started over the GOM now that the trough has been broken.
ATCF says Otto is back to 65 knots, and his pressure is up to 984mb:

AL, 17, 2010100912, , BEST, 0, 301N, 571W, 65, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 30, 15, 0, 1008, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OTTO, D,

However, he's had a nice little blowup of convection at the center that's grown larger over the past several IR frames, so we'll have to see whether that holds.

ATCF also says 98L is hanging steady at 25 knots/1009 mb. One to watch, for sure:

AL, 98, 2010100912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 795W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Deep convection has developed right over the center but not enough at the moment to keep out all of the dry air. Looking pretty good all things considered. Might go up percentage wise by the NHC later today by one increment if it can build and hold a little more.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The low in the SW Caribbean continues to try and organize and shear has fallen to a low 10 to 15 knots near and over the system. The trend has been falling shear for the past 24 hours and if this continues the upper level winds will become quite conducive for development during the day later today.



The one inhibitor I see that continues to plague the system is extremely dry air in close proximity throughout the NW Caribbean. Winds in this area are from the North which is pushing this very dry air into the circulation and disrupting it from strengthening. So far, it has been holding its own but would need to grow in aerial coverage before the convection would be sufficiently widespread to isolate the core of the low from the dry air.





The low has been building convection over the past few hours so we will have to watch the trend in this direction over the course of the day. If it does develop the people in the Cayman Islands may not get a lot of lead time to prepare so I would recommend that anyone living here take time today to check their hurricane preparedness list for any missing key items as stores will be closed tomorrow.

Thnx for the great analysis Kman. Good morning. I do also agree that the dry air to it's west & also immediate north is playing a role in it's ability to get really organized initially. I also have been monitoring the shear & upper-level winds & those two like you said have eased up quite a bit thus generally allowing more of a favorable environment for 98L.

The recent bouts of convection worries me a bit; hence this system bears watching.
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09pmGMT - - 26.8n62.3w - - 80mph - - - 976mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
9Oct 12amGMT - - 27.2n61.7w - - 75knots - - 972mb -- NHC-ATCF
9Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - - - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
9Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
9Oct 09amGMT - - 29.2n58.5w - - 85mph - - - 977mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
9Oct 12pmGMT - - 30.1n57.1w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=~136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 25.4n64.6w, 25.9n64.0w, 26.3n63.1w, 26.8n62.3w, 27.2n61.7w-27.8n60.8w, 27.8n60.8w-28.5n59.7w, 28.5n59.7w-29.2n58.5w, 29.2n58.5w-30.1n57.1w, ngd, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Quoting aspectre:
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09pmGMT - - 26.8n62.3w - - 80mph - - - 976mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
9Oct 12amGMT - - 27.2n61.7w - - 75knots - - 972mb -- NHC-ATCF
9Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - - - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
9Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
9Oct 09amGMT - - 29.2n58.5w - - 85mph - - - 977mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
9Oct 12pmGMT - - 30.1n57.1w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 25.4n64.6w, 25.9n64.0w, 26.3n63.1w, 26.8n62.3w, 27.2n61.7w-27.8n60.8w, 27.8n60.8w-28.5n59.7w, 28.5n59.7w-29.2n58.5w, 29.2n58.5w-30.1n57.1w, ngd, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours


Otto is starting to eat some very cold Norse air but he sure is slinging a lot of moisture right back into the Caribbean on his way out
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



watching that loop it looks like some very minor moistening of the gulf has already begun, especially in the last 3 frames. It isn't rain or real damp, but it shows the warming trend has already started over the GOM now that the trough has been broken.

Yes, I do see that. It's only a matter of time before that trend would have to be broken since it's been so unseasonable, bone dry. Yeah, it's nothing significant, be might be paving the way for more unstable conditions down the road in the GOM & adjacent areas in the near future.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
thats the GFDL and HWRF between the both say 80-105 Mph winds


Did any other reliable model develops the disturbance that here is called already 98L?
Quoting superpete:
613 Kman. Thanks for your read on 98L. Another Paloma 'pop up' potential for us.When they intensify this close by, the prep' time is very short for us.On that note....off to get some diesel....

It seems so long ago since Paloma but then I dialed up a loop & track of her later last night & it's almost eerily similar to what this thing can take. Sure hope not.
Cold tops showing up now

Quoting kmanislander:
Deep convection has developed right over the center but not enough at the moment to keep out all of the dry air. Looking pretty good all things considered. Might go up percentage wise by the NHC later today by one increment if it can build and hold a little more.




look is that banding starting??.... It sure appears to be intensifying quicker and quicker as the shear is falling faster and faster.
Quoting kmanislander:
Deep convection has developed right over the center but not enough at the moment to keep out all of the dry air. Looking pretty good all things considered. Might go up percentage wise by the NHC later today by one increment if it can build and hold a little more.

I'm thinking we'll see TD 18 out 98L later today or early tomorrow; the RGB loop seems to back that up, at least for now.
yes by the rgb loop it does appear to be tightening up
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



look is that banding starting??.... It sure appears to be intensifying quicker and quicker as the shear is falling faster and faster.


Not quite at the banding stage IMO but the rotation is well established as you can see from the RAMSDIS loop
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yes, I do see that. It's only a matter of time before that trend would have to be broken since it's been so unseasonable, bone dry. Yeah, it's nothing significant, be might be paving the way for more unstable conditions down the road in the GOM & adjacent areas in the near future.


Do you think the moisture coming back into the Caribbean from Otto may help 98L to form? It looks like Otto may have sent a Goldilocks amount of moisture and energy back at 98L. If she can pull herself together enough she can fight off that dry air. I dont think the weak high pressures over Texas (low level) and Mexico (mid-level) are strong enough to interfere with her, just the dry air (and the shear, but it's falling fast).
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm thinking we'll see TD 18 out 98L later today or early tomorrow; the RGB loop seems to back that up, at least for now.
I'm guessing earlier tomorrow; but percentage is going to be bumped up a bit at the 2pm with these recent flare-ups.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm thinking we'll see TD 18 out 98L later today or early tomorrow; the RGB loop seems to back that up, at least for now.


While the circulation looks very good there is virtually no convection in the Eastern semi circle. It's currently limited to the center and the Western half.

TD today is a touch aggressive IMO but if development trends continue I could see classification in 24 to 36 hours.
Quoting kmanislander:


Not quite at the banding stage IMO but the rotation is well established as you can see from the RAMSDIS loop



I'm not sure but I think Goes 13 last frozen visible shot shows classic banding is starting but i can't find the link to post. Yeah and your right that link shows she has began to make tight cyclonic circulation. Plus that 1st visible after sunrise shows some huge stacks on her.
That's it from me for now. Will check back a few hours later to see how things are going.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


Do you think the moisture coming back into the Caribbean from Otto may help 98L to form? It looks like Otto may have sent a Goldilocks amount of moisture and energy back at 98L. If she can pull herself together enough she can fight off that dry air. I dont think the weak high pressures over Texas (low level) and Mexico (mid-level) are strong enough to interfere with her, just the dry air (and the shear, but it's falling fast).

Otto's southern clockwise upper-level outflow is sure impressive, leaving it's moist remnants as a gift for us in the Caribbean upon his departure.

I have not gave either of the two weak low pressures a fair shake yet, but do not see them being the make-or-break factor in aiding & abetting 98L's formation & development at this time. The dry air & shear as you mentioned are the primary impeding factors; however, the shear will continue to slowly ease up & the dry air won't affect it TOO much as long as she continues to protect herself with all-around, symmetrical & healthy convective bouts. Her eastern side is void right now of that.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

It seems so long ago since Paloma but then I dialed up a loop & track of her later last night & it's almost eerily similar to what this thing can take. Sure hope not.
You are correct Cat5.I recall Paloma was barely a hurricane just south of us here in Grand Cayman,then it intensified very quickly to a Cat 1 by the time it travelled barely 50 more miles/was a Cat 3 by the time it reached our other two islands.It will be moving over very deep water as it goes north,albiet this has cooled somewhat lately.
As Kman & others points out it bears close watching today & Sunday
Quoting reedzone:
I'm sorry I have to say this... Admin, that was plain rude blocking StSimonsIslandGAGuy comments for just saying he was leaving and why. Sorry, that was plain rude. Everything has changed non wunderground for the bad, we lost another good blogger.


Reed, you have no idea if what SSIG said is true. He may be just slandering others for his own benefit or reason. I am not saying that he is, I am just saying that we do not know and admin is correct is removing the entry. If it was true, there are other ways to deal with it.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Reed, you have no idea if what SSIG said is true. He may be just slandering others for his own benefit or reason. I am not saying that he is, I am just saying that we do not know and admin is correct is removing the entry. If it was true, there are other ways to deal with it.
I wonder what is really going on with the blog lately ? It has become unreal. I used to spend hours on here during hurricane season and now there is so much BS and tension I just check for relevant posts.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Otto's southern clockwise upper-level outflow is sure impressive, leaving it's moist remnants as a gift for us in the Caribbean upon his departure.

I have not gave either of the two weak low pressures a fair shake yet, but do not see them being the make-or-break factor in aiding & abetting 98L's formation & development at this time. The dry air & shear as you mentioned are the primary impeding factors; however, the shear will continue to slowly ease up & the dry air won't affect it TOO much as long as she continues to protect herself with all-around, symmetrical & healthy convective bouts. Her eastern side is void right now of that.



yeah i guess i should have defined Goldilocks. It looks like all of the moisture he kicked to the south back behind him never really formed big storms, but fed a lot of moisture back towards her. And by doing that has he provided her enough (+ the sst's in the Caribbean) to form her own environment? That would allow her to fight off the dry air when she began to vent and breathe hard.
Quoting superpete:
You are correct Cat5.I recall Paloma was barely a hurricane just south of us here in Grand Cayman,then it intensified very quickly to a Cat 1 by the time it travelled barely 50 more miles/was a Cat 3 by the time it reached our other two islands.It will be moving over very deep water as it goes north,albiet this has cooled somewhat lately.
As Kman & others points out it bears close watching today & Sunday

Yeah Paloma was a quintessential example of a cyclone completely taking advantage of the warm, deep Caribbean waters & rapidly intensifying.

Granted the waters at the surface might have cooled down a bit; however, there still remains plenty of untapped, latent energy deep down. The depth of the 26 degree isotherm really illustrates that, as is still well over a hundred meters down once you get up near about 100 miles south of Grand Cayman.

Otto may be a much prettier looking entity (right now), but this one takes center stage in my book.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I wonder what is really going on with the blog lately ? It has become unreal. I used to spend hours on here during hurricane season and now there is so much BS and tension I just check for relevant posts.


Two Thumbs Up!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I wonder what is really going on with the blog lately ? It has become unreal. I used to spend hours on here during hurricane season and now there is so much BS and tension I just check for relevant posts.
so true thats why i am not on that often i really dont have the patience for all the bs, i come on see whats out there dicuss a bit and off, i used to spend hours on the blogg ,just not the same.......sad
[moved to new]
funny i was just thinking of the tropical tidbit quite a few days ago and i think i remember he circled the very area she is in when he said there may be some "fun and games" starting with 98L. He almost exactly circled where she would get her act together if i remember right.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


yeah i guess i should have defined Goldilocks. It looks like all of the moisture he kicked to the south back behind him never really formed big storms, but fed a lot of moisture back towards her. And by doing that has he provided her enough (+ the sst's in the Caribbean) to form her own environment? That would allow her to fight off the dry air when she began to vent and breathe hard.

The proximity is very large between Otto's wake & the conditions currently dominating the Caribbean, but there still is a relatively moderate correlation between them.

The dry air right now is significant enough to starve 98L at the moment. However if she can continue to allow her healthy circulation & vorticity to work in her favor to establish some good cold tops near her inner-core, then the dry air is useless in working as a counter-measure. Now the dry air pool in the GOM & off the coast of FL...well that's a different story!! But obviously that's not a player with 98L.....at the moment.