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Hurricane Norbert Brushing Baja; 90L Emerges From the Coast of Africa

By: Jeff Masters 12:42 PM GMT on September 04, 2014

Hurricane Norbert took advantage of unusually warm 29.5°C (85°F) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and intensified into the Eastern Pacific's tenth hurricane of the year on Wednesday evening. The Eastern Pacific has seen an unusually active hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes so far. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Category 1 Norbert had no eye but some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops, and Mexican radar showed an outer band of Norbert bringing heavy rains to the tip of the Baja Peninsula and adjacent areas of Mainland Mexico. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear over the next two days to maintain Category 1 hurricane strength, but the models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Norbert is a small storm, and it's hurricane-force winds are only expected to reach out about 25 miles from the center when it makes its closest pass by the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday morning. Hurricane force winds will likely stay offshore, but Baja can expect tropical storm-force winds from Norbert. In their 2 am PDT Thursday WInd Probability Advisory, NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 63% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 0% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. Heavy rains of 3 - 5" causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Norbert at approximately 5 pm EDT September 3, 2014. At the time, Norbert had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

New tropical wave 90L emerges from the African coast
A well-organized tropical wave (designated 90L by NHC on Thursday morning) has emerged from the coast of Africa, and is moving to the west at about 15 mph. Satellite images show the wave has plenty of spin, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and the ocean temperatures are warm, near 28°C (82°F.) The core of the wave will pass a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands on Friday. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation show development by Monday, and in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 10% and 40%, respectively. The Thursday morning long-range runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with a low threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands indicated. The Atlantic is expected to be dominated by dry, sinking air next week, due to the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, so I expect that 90L will struggle to develop. Indeed, the 2 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model showed 90L encountering increasingly dry air over the next five days in the face of moderate wind shear--conditions hostile for development.


Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Invest 90L off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 4, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
This is not what most bloggers (including myself) like to hear but it's hard to imagine any development with 90L possible at least inside 3 days with it moving into this kind of environment. The convection has already gone "poof". No wonder the EURO has been killing it for the past couple of days.

I think the good doctor copied and pasted his previous comment on 90L from his last blog.
well it is the peak of the season and at this time we need to stay alert and ready..sept and oct I really watch close to home for anything to develop..the 360 run of the gfs is downright scary with 2 tropical systems hitting florida and texas....yeah way too far out in time but............
I see nothing coming from 90L 90L will end up this like 97L poof the nhc has been jumping the gun on thing this year
Thanx Doc.
Thanks Doc, with peak season quickly approaching things will start to ramp up. I expect the NHC expectations of 9-12 storms to be spot on. And to think a select few also predicted an El Nino to start in May, it appears we may well into winter before a weak one appears, if at all. Good day everyone!

3.4 region is now in negative territory, a far cry from an El Nino.


The 3 region is almost to 0.0C
Quoting 5. Tazmanian:

I see nothing coming from 90L 90L will end up this like 97L poof the nhc has been jumping the gun on thing this year


i just don't understand how anyone could make statements like this. Yes.. chances of development in the short term are slim to none, but, this time of year especially, everything needs to be monitored. There is at least some potential of long term development. Where and when is up for question but I think its a safe bet that at some point we will see something out of 90L
Thanks for the update..

Norbert does look moist with rain.. Here's a TRMM pass of just an outer band.. Click the pic to watch a quicktime movie of the pass.

90L, an amazing classic TW as it hit the water. 90L now a wave with excellent spin but dying convection. 90L soon to be a dead invest. It is what it is, MDR is going to be closed until at least late September or early October. Will anything make the Gulf other than the SW Gulf? Not holding my breath there either. NHC up to 40% in five day with 90L so they're still fairly bullish with this wave. One never knows though.
Poof !


Eye forming on Norbert...

06 GFS take P27L into Florida in two weeks. But it also puts a system in the GOM in 10 days.

But as we all know, anything beyond 5 days is very unreliable. That's why Dr. Masters rarely mentions anything the models are showing beyond the 5 day time frame.

Quoting 11. MahFL:

Poof !



could go dormant till 15 55 triple nickel
15. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this disturbance through early next week while
it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

nobody has any love for 90l
Thanks Dr. M. Good morning all. As for that 06z GFS run, let's hope that GOM storm stays in the realm of fantasy. And the GFS ensembles do not match the operational run. For 90l, the NHC had the wave at least moving west to 55. As always could and probably will change.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...ENHANCING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CUBA AND OFF THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT
WEST THROUGH LATE TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND NE COLOMBIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
LATE SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SAT...AND THROUGH THE EARLY NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HANDLE STRONGER IMPACTS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN BETWEEN
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 10 FT IN THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THESE PERIODS OF ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRES
AREA CURRENTLY MOVING OFF AFRICA...EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W BY
LATE TUE.

Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

90L, an amazing classic TW as it hit the water. 90L now a wave with excellent spin but dying convection. 90L soon to be a dead invest. It is what it is, MDR is going to be closed until at least late September or early October. Will anything make the Gulf other than the SW Gulf? Not holding my breath there either. NHC up to 40% in five day with 90L so they're still fairly bullish with this wave. One never knows though.


It's starting to look like another dud season. Time to start forecasting for the winter because this Hurricane season is setting to be a boring one.
Thanks Doc, with peak season quickly approaching things will start to ramp up. I expect the NHC expectations of 9-12 storms to be spot on. And to think a select few also predicted an El Nino to start in May, it appears we may well into winter before a weak one appears, if at all. Good day everyone!

heck people were saying we would have it declared last winter....and while it might take until this winter...i think the early affects of an el nino are apparent in the tropics
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


It's starting to look like another dud season. Time to start forecasting for the winter because this Hurricane season is setting to be a boring one.


Well, to be fair unlike last season, 2014 was generally expected to be below average. Everything is going exactly as I have foreseen...
something brewing off the east coast in a couple of days..



WPC has the low attached to a front..
something brewing off the east coast in a couple of days..


cmc and gem were showing cut off low yesterday
Hey guys I see we started again with 90L
Do I buy this first model run
Nope not one bit
Plus it's first run nobody should trust it
From last blog
Quoting 616. EdMahmoud
12:23 PM GMT on September 04, 2014


All these very legitimate complaints about the WU software and how poorly it runs, think they might actually try to repair it?


Don't count on it -- you have no idea of the extent they are going to reduce the population of weather whiners on this site! :-)

Gem model has a Low come off the coast of the carolina's then form into a tropical storm off the coast on monday sept 8th.
Never mine I made a few mistakes in my spelling so I re moveed the post
exactly as I forseen....


Can you give me the Powerball #'s for Saturday Night, and the Over and under for the Saints Sunday?
I like watching real Models in real time.

Reow'
Nam also has the Low coming off the carolina's coast also...................
Quoting 25. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys I see we started again with 90L
Do I buy this first model run
Nope not one bit
Plus it's first run nobody should trust it


Let's guess. The first model run is too far north?
Quoting ncstorm:
something brewing off the east coast in a couple of days..



WPC has the low attached to a front..


NAM at 84 hours and you can see the Low taking shape just off the coast.
Different models have been flip flopping back and forth about a possible system forming off the eastcoast.
Definitely worth watching.
... 90L encountering increasingly DRY AIR over the next five days in the face of moderate wind shear--conditions hostile for development. ... sums up this season
euro has it also..has it moving NNE over time......................................
Quoting 5. Tazmanian:

I see nothing coming from 90L 90L will end up this like 97L poof the nhc has been jumping the gun on thing this year


I don't disagree at all. Many of these waves look good then quickly look convection and the same is happening here. If it were to develop it is going to be much further west or northwest like the other storms. But that seems unlikely at this time.
Quoting LargoFl:
Nam also has the Low coming off the carolina's coast also...................


Too funny
Posted the same thing in post #33.

We'll have to see if more models jump on board. Also, not sure if the low will end up being tropical.
90L has a very good spin. But there is also the other wave which will coming off of Africa soon that should be watched closely as well. This is the part of the season where you have to look closely at them.

Quoting 28. Tazmanian:

Some. Time I find this blog pathetic this because. It's Sep dos not mean that ever cloud. Wave you see out there will forum. If things are hostile out there like the doc says

Here what you need

Moist air do we have it in the mdr nop it's bone dry

2 wave has like 90L we do have low We do have low wind shear. Now but if it wants to make it to FLORIDA. has a hurricane it needs to get passed. The 50Kt of shear that's out by 50W if it stays a wave it be torn apart

3 Sal there bee a lot of SAL DRY air out there

So if you add all if this up what do you get very. Hostile out the

We need moist air warm sea temperature and low shear and no Sal or dry air and you get a Nic hurricane

Has I said I see nothing out of 90L has it is too dry and it will run in to high shear


Say what?
Quoting 2. SLU:

This is not what most bloggers (including myself) like to hear but it's hard to imagine any development with 90L possible at least inside 3 days with it moving into this kind of environment. The convection has already gone "poof". No wonder the EURO has been killing it for the past couple of days.


Greetings Slu..I my self do not think it looks that bad out there. If 90L can organize fairly quick, it may just hold itself together as a t.d or weak t.s...If it does stay an open wave, could end up in the Caribbean and strengthen there..wait and see.
CMC was one of the first models to show a developing system off the eastcoast.
It's back to showing the same thing today.

Thanks Dr. Masters!
First models. Subject to wide variations in the coming days.



Pretty cool "gully washer" seen yesterday near Gulf Shores, Al.
Tropics Heating up, 90L could be a future menace to the CONUS.... Stay tuned

CMC was one of the first models to show a developing system off the eastcoast.
It's back to showing the same thing today.


it also shows 90 l surviving and the next wave behind it
JB said with the magnitude of this cold blast next week that don't be surprised to see snow in Denver. JB mentioned this in his video this morning. Like I said this is a very deep Polar airmass coming in at days 8 thru 10 so don't be surprised to some see some snow out west or up close to the Canadian border.
Quoting 46. safetyman007:



Pretty cool "gully washer" seen yesterday near Gulf Shores, Al.


That same little system made for a beautiful double rainbow on my drive home from work.
Last time I believe Denver had snow in September was in 1994 an (El-Nino year).
Last time I believe Denver had snow in September was in 1994 an (El-Nino year).


try 2000
Quoting 29. Patrap:

exactly as I forseen....


Can you give me the Powerball #'s for Saturday Night, and the Over and under for the Saints Sunday?
I thought it was my turn to win powerball..Anyway, 90L wants a shot at the title. Granted its lack of convection would dictate otherwise. It has some moist air to work with.
We Want to Hear Your Story!







In October 2014, the National Weather Service in Wilmington, NC (along with other surrounding offices), will be commemorating Hurricane Hazel - an historic hurricane which had an extensive and overwhelming impact on life and property, and the strongest Category 4 hurricane to ever hit the North Carolina coast.

At this time, we are asking if anyone would be willing to share testimonies, photos, or video that we could incorporate into this anniversary project, enabling us and our customers to learn more about this historic event.

If you, or anyone you know experienced Hurricane Hazel, and would like to share information, please send an email to Sandy.LaCorte@noaa.gov



We look forward to hearing for you, and we thank you in advance!

Quoting 52. StormTrackerScott:

Last time I believe Denver had snow in September was in 1994 an (El-Nino year).
Hello Scott..I wuz gonna say that they have had snow since 1994..True 1994 wuz a Nino.
Quoting Grothar:
First models. Subject to wide variations in the coming days.


Yes indeed thank you
90L looks sickly in a hurry. Coincidence that 12Z SHIPS not run for it? No 12Z early track guidance, either.


What is the record for the shortest ever invest?
Quoting safetyman007:


Pretty cool "gully washer" seen yesterday near Gulf Shores, Al.
You guys in SW Alabama have had all the luck. Not a drop over Eufaula way, and there hasn't been any rain for the past 5 days from any of the numerous storms floating around. Plenty of heat, although yesterday the high was "only" 92 thanks to all the debris clouds from your storms. Might have a chance yet today although I'm not holding my breath.
Quoting 56. hydrus:

Hello Scott..I wuz gonna say that they have had snow since 1994..True 1994 wuz a Nino.


Funny I was talking about this "possibility yesterday and then JB mentions it in his video this morning. I guess I wasn't that far off base by saying there might be a possibility for snow up north and out west. Euro is much colder and centers the cold across the midwest as the GFS is more progressive. If the Euro pans out then Denver might have a shot.
90L is moving WSW at 238°
I suspect a W-WSW movement to continue through 30W
Quoting 25. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I see we started again with 90L
Do I buy this first model run
Nope not one bit
Plus it's first run nobody should trust it

Did you feel the 2nd quake last night, WKC?
Quoting 53. ricderr:

Last time I believe Denver had snow in September was in 1994 an (El-Nino year).


try 2000


I don't know I was just going by what JB said.
64. SLU
Quoting 41. hydrus:

Greetings Slu..I my self do not think it looks that bad out there. If 90L can organize fairly quick, it may just hold itself together as a t.d or weak t.s...If it does stay an open wave, could end up in the Caribbean and strengthen there..wait and see.


Good to see you man.

We will both keep a close eye on 90L no doubt. I just feel it may not strengthen until further west around 40 - 50W just because the MDR isn't what it used to be a few years ago. Another thing to note is that the vertical instability in the Atlantic resembles what we would get in mid-June if you are to extrapolate the current position of the blue line back across to where it would intersect the black line. Therefore we can expect the waves to struggle with dry air just as if today was June 15th and we don't get Cape Verde storms on June 15th.

I don't know I was just going by what JB said.


he's wrong..
1997 had the freakish mid October blizzard.

Quoting 52. StormTrackerScott:

Last time I believe Denver had snow in September was in 1994 an (El-Nino year).
Hello, and Good Morning:

September is here, and it will be interesting to see what happens from now through mid-October. Still not ruling out some tropical action in the Gulf of Mexico, W. Caribbean, and W. Atlantic.

Although not officially declared, it does seem like there have been signs of (a weak) El Nino going on this summer. Look how active the EPAC has been, and so many troughs and cold fronts moving through the Southeast USA, all summer long!

Although the AVERAGE climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is next week, it could possibly peak after that time. We will see if we get that "Major" storm form ... somewhere out there! It's not over till it is over ...



Quoting 65. ricderr:

I don't know I was just going by what JB said.


he's wrong..


geez people are rude on here.
Quoting 34. Melagoo:
... 90L encountering increasingly DRY AIR over the next five days in the face of moderate wind shear--conditions hostile for development. ... sums up this season
Not according to the experts. It is a vey robust wave with a good shot at development. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this disturbance through early next week while
it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I don't know I was just going by what JB said.
The Denver metro area had a snowstorm on September 23, 2000 that dropped from 0.5" in the city to over 12" in the higher elevations of Boulder County. The earliest measurable snow on record occurred on September 3, 1961.

It takes about 2 minutes to find this information via Google. JB apparently just spouts off without doing any basic research so he can get his tweets out faster. Amazingly, some people choose to believe him.
Informational purposes only. This is just some ensemble models which shows possible psychogenesis. It doesn't necessarily mean that anything will form, just areas of interest.

Quoting BaltOCane:


geez people are rude on here.
Quoting BaltOCane:


geez people are rude on here.
Truth is an absolute defense against perceived rudeness.
In reference to Denver snowfalls in Sept.

While September averages 1.1 inches of snow for the month (long term average from 1882-2014), the city has not seen any snow in September in 14 years. In 2000 0.2 inches of snow were recorded at DIA, and in September 1999 3.1 inches fell. Here’s a look at the snowiest Septembers on record in Denver:

17.2 inches 1971

16.5 inches 1936

12.9 inches 1959

11.4 inches 1895

8.7 inches 1985

Source - http://www.weather5280.com/
Quoting 73. sar2401:

Truth is an absolute defense against perceived rudeness.


I'm glad you put up info about that, because all that jack-hole did was say "he's wrong" "you're wrong" without offering any data at all.

Again, flippin' rude people....
I will be watching Norbert to see if southern California can get some rain out of it. Wells are running dry in places.
Quoting 70. sar2401:

The Denver metro area had a snowstorm on September 23, 2000 that dropped from 0.5" in the city to over 12" in the higher elevations of Boulder County. The earliest measurable snow on record occurred on September 3, 1961.

It takes about 2 minutes to find this information via Google. JB apparently just spouts off without doing any basic research so he can get his tweets out faster. Amazingly, some people choose to believe him.


I believe he said I think the last time it was 1994 but does it really matter. All everyone should know is that a strong Polar airmass is coming down into the Midwest late next week and there could be a potential for up slope snow. No one is saying its going to happen just something to watch. Another area of interest is this area off the FL coast which could develop over the weekend or next week and shot up the eastern US.


Quoting 62. superpete:


Did you feel the 2nd quake last night, WKC?


he posted right after it happened...lots of people commenting on seeing "earthquake lights" due to our 6.0 in napa. i find it interesting that they saw them during the earthquake and right after. its not how they work its prior to the earthquake hitting. transformers and electric poles blowing is what they saw. my own opinion...:P
Quoting EdMahmoud:
90L looks sickly in a hurry. Coincidence that 12Z SHIPS not run for it? No 12Z early track guidance, either.


What is the record for the shortest ever invest?
That's a good question, although I have no idea how to find the answer. A quick search reveals nothing. Didn't we have one this year that lasted a day?
Quoting 68. BaltOCane:



geez people are rude on here.


I agree who cares who's right or wrong. Hell I can't remember what happened here last year weather wise. Getting old i guess at age 34.
Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:



I agree who cares who's right or wrong. Hell I can't remember what happened here in last year weather wise. Getting old i guess at age 34.
You are older than I thought..34 is a great age to be.
Quoting 78. WaterWitch11:


he posted right after it happened...lots of people commenting on seeing "earthquake lights" due to our 6.0 in napa. i find it interesting that they saw them during the earthquake and right after. its not how they work its prior to the earthquake hitting. transformers and electric poles blowing is what they saw. my own opinion...:P
I never heard of earthquake lights. Can you please explain, TIA. BTW, I never felt either one of the two we had yesterday.
I think the Atlantic is ready to go.
Thank you Dr.!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I believe he said I think the last time it was 1994 but does it really matter. All everyone should know is that a strong Polar airmass is coming down into the Midwest late next week and there could be a potential for up slope snow. No one is saying its going to happen just something to watch. Another area of interest is this area off the FL coast which could develop over the weekend or next week and shot up the eastern US.
Of course it really matters. He's a meteorologist that reaches an audience of tens of thousands. Most public figures, particularly those claiming to be scientists, do at least a little research before making statements. When was the last time you saw Dr. Masters post something like "I think the last time it was"...anything?
Quoting 76. sonofagunn:

I will be watching Norbert to see if southern California can get some rain out of it. Wells are running dry in places.


GFS takes Norbert in Southern Cal.


Quoting hydrus:
You are older than I thought..34 is a great age to be.


Lol. I don't remember 34. :)
Quoting 64. SLU:This is true. One thing I have noticed is the good vorticity with these tropical waves. Bertha had a wicked tight little vort that would not die. I whacked it my self with an 80 kt shear bat , she laughed , moved west near the mountains, became a hurricane.



Good to see you man.

We will both keep a close eye on 90L no doubt. I just feel it may not strengthen until further west around 40 - 50W just because the MDR isn't what it used to be a few years ago. Another thing to note is that the vertical instability in the Atlantic resembles what we would get in mid-June if you are to extrapolate the current position of the blue line back across to where it would intersect the black line. Therefore we can expect the waves to struggle with dry air just as if today was June 15th and we don't get Cape Verde storms on June 15th.

hurrcane...
Quoting 85. sar2401:

Of course it really matters. He's a meteorologist that reaches an audience of tens of thousands. Most public figures, particularly those claiming to be scientists, do at least a little research before making statements. When was the last time you saw Dr. Masters post something like "I think the last time it was"...anything?


It's morning weather video not a science research project.
Paving the way for the next one?
91. SLU
Quoting 69. stormwatcherCI:

Not according to the experts. It is a vey robust wave with a good shot at development. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this disturbance through early next week while
it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




Expect that language to turn to:

"Conditions are only marginally favorable for development"
"Proximity to dry air should limit development"
"Due to dry air, any development will be slow to occur"
"Conditions are currently unfavorable for development but may become more favorable by early next week"

Meanwhile the development chances will be decreased with each successive TWO until it tapers off to 0%. We've seen that a couple times already.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree who cares who's right or wrong. Hell I can't remember what happened here last year weather wise. Getting old i guess at age 34.
Who cares who's right or wrong? I'll certainly keep that in mind when reading your posts.
93. SLU
Quoting 88. hydrus:





Yeah, most of the waves have had great spin and structure but the conditions were just not up to it this year ....
Quoting 87. AtHomeInTX:



Lol. I don't remember 34. :)
My 30,s were good..Cept for my 38th year..Charley and Jeanne threw a series of serious problems into my life.
Quoting 92. sar2401:

Who cares who's right or wrong? I'll certainly keep that in mind when reading your posts.


Please do as I don't care. It's weather and i think some take it to serious. I take weather forecasting as a "fun" thing to do on my spare time. I think that is what is missing on here is fun aspect from many. Also I watched the JB video again and he said it snows in Denver in September then referenced the 1994 storm
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's morning weather video not a science research project.
Dr. Masters make morning posts here all the time. Since he provides links for almost all the things in his posts, I guess that's a science research project to you.


LETS HOPE this invest 90L keep moving west and need more rain and t.storms soon in that center or going to die out again.
Cooling of the continent and subtropical Atlantic waters in the next few weeks may prove to focus energy into the mDR and "jump start" some Cape Verde action. Also, look for more stalled frontal boundaries off the Carolina coast and GOM over the next couple weeks. Knowing 2014, none of this will even matter lol. Just my 2 cents, take it or leave it.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Paving the way for the next one?
Yeah, for the next one...in October.
10% / 40% chance of developing
90%/60% of NOT developing.
That's not 'jumping the gun'.

If we want to watch potential development hour by hour, this time of year, with this pattern; we are better off watching areas close to home. Otherwise, check back in every few hours until something CV pops.
Euro ensemble and ensemble control run like wave after 90L. Neither has much signal for Gulf/Caribbean or cold core to warm core East Coast system. Control run still has second wave nearly stalled SE of Bermuda in 360 hours.

UK Met likes 90L (not until tomorrow, however), and predicts a weak system (on text guidance) developing in 5 days off SE US Coast.
Quoting 82. stormwatcherCI:

I never heard of earthquake lights. Can you please explain, TIA. BTW, I never felt either one of the two we had yesterday.


if you google it you can find better info then i can explain. i have only seen it occur once but have heard and read numerous stories. what is TIA?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree who cares who's right or wrong. Hell I can't remember what happened here last year weather wise. Getting old i guess at age 34.


Heck i cant remember the last time you were right about a forecast lol.
Quoting 99. weatherh98:

Cooling of the continent and subtropical Atlantic waters in the next few weeks may prove to focus energy into the mDR and "jump start" some Cape Verde action. Also, look for more stalled frontal boundaries off the Carolina coast and GOM over the next couple weeks. Knowing 2014, none of this will even matter lol. Just my 2 cents, take it or leave it.


Exactly as it starts to cool off across the eastern US the heat will be focused across the tropics.
Quoting hydrus:
My 30,s were good..Cept for my 38th year..Charley and Jeanne threw a series of serious problems into my life.


Yeah, come to think of it, 38 was memorable for me as well. First NOT HURRICANE but granddaughter Emily was born in August, then had Rita in September. Lost all material things to Rita but over all I was blessed that year. :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Please do as I don't care. It's weather and i think some take it to serious. I take weather forecasting as a "fun" thing to do on my spare time. I think that is what is missing on here is fun aspect from many.


I agree weather is fun, but whats not fun is hearing night and day about El Nino that isnt here and trying to predict where a rain drop will fall in 10 days lol. No problem with you posting stuff, but acting as though its going to happen because you say so makes it not 'fun'.
I know of a place where the weather can be fun ...
Quoting MonsterTrough:
10% / 40% chance of developing
90%/60% of NOT developing.
That's not 'jumping the gun'.

If we want to watch potential development hour by hour, this time of year, with this pattern; we are better off watching areas close to home. Otherwise, check back in every few hours until something CV pops.
I believe the NHC made this African wave an invest so the floaters would be up. The percentages are based on current model runs, some of which show some development. As we saw with Dolly, the percentages advance quickly when an invest actually shows development, not the models. With 90L, the percentages will start to advance in the next two days or start to decline. That's about all we can say with any certainty now.
Good morning everyone
Quoting 100. sar2401:

Yeah, for the next one...in October.
I have hear the same over and over again. Wait for the next one. ugh so tired of that sentence.
Hurricane ‪#‎Frances‬ that slammed into Florida 10 years ago today. Landfall was at 1am on Sept. 5.

Quoting 109. sar2401:

I believe the NHC made this African wave an invest so the floaters would be up. The percentages are based on current model runs, some of which show some development. As we saw with Dolly, the percentages advance quickly when an invest actually shows development, not the models. With 90L, the percentages will start to advance in the next two days or start to decline. That's about all we can say with any certainty now.

I'm in agreement with you. I just let commonts of sumwon eye has blokd git two me.
Quoting superpete:

Did you feel the 2nd quake last night, WKC?

Yeah
I posted on here just after it happened
Quoting WaterWitch11:


if you google it you can find better info then i can explain. i have only seen it occur once but have heard and read numerous stories. what is TIA?
TIA = Thanks in Advance

Most earthquake lights reports are only after dark and probably are arcing power lines and transformers, just like you wrote. However, there's some evidence that the piezoelectric properties of some rocks can create lights before an earthquake that are visible even in daylight. There's some research into this in a National Geographic article that has a picture of this phenomena captured in 1972.
Scott you have taken a pounding this morning, More and more people are just going to put you on Ignore if you don't wise up.
Quoting MonsterTrough:

I'm in agreement with you. I just let commonts of sumwon eye has blokd git two me.
Ah, I see. I have that person blocked as well. I have enough trouble with normal blog English and tweet speak. :-)
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902014 09/04/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 66 63 59 53 48 43 43 40 39

Sigh..
Quoting 71. Grothar: psychogenesis.

lol.. That basin-jumper into the BOC almost looks like a sure thing... would be within days of formation of Hermine 9/6/11 from 11-e in the EPAC.
Quoting 105. StormTrackerScott:



Exactly as it starts to cool off across the eastern US the heat will be focused across the tropics.


There's no sign of a cool off across the Southeast anytime soon. Forecast shows our current hot and muggy weather continuing for the next 10 days, waters in the GOM will stay warm because of this. I'd gladly take a strong cold front that pushed as far South as Northern Florida but no sign of one anytime soon unfortunately!
Quoting 59. sar2401:

You guys in SW Alabama have had all the luck. Not a drop over Eufaula way, and there hasn't been any rain for the past 5 days from any of the numerous storms floating around. Plenty of heat, although yesterday the high was "only" 92 thanks to all the debris clouds from your storms. Might have a chance yet today although I'm not holding my breath.


Sar, don't be too upset. While it was raining in Gulf Shores, at my house about 6 miles away, no rain. Not a drop! In fact the sun was shining!
Quoting allancalderini:
Good morning everyone
I have hear the same over and over again. Wait for the next one. ugh so tired of that sentence.
Hi Allen. Yes, we have heard that phrase a fair bit this year. The atmosphere in front of 90L is very dry, with RH values in the 30's and 40's. As we've seen this season, even good looking waves over Africa don't do well in that kind of environment. One of the things I suspect people forget is that these waves develop in one of the most moisture rich regions of the world, with many Gulf of Guinea countries experience in 50-70 inches of rain in just a single month. It would be surprising if these waves din't look good in such an environment. Once they get over the ocean, they lose that moisture quickly, so the waves tend to deteriorate after 24 hours or so. I've just given up looking at these waves until they are over water for at least 48 hours. If they are at least holding their own, then we might get something down the road.
Man, Scott, they're really loving on you today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1056 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE W/ PWS AROUND 1.8 INCHES. MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WHICH IS
REFLECTION OF ELONGATING TUTT NOW CENTERED SOUTH OF CUBA EXTENDS
ACROSS S FL. THIS FEATURE IS EVEN NOTED IN LOWEST LEVELS ACROSS
DEEP S FL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH AND
BISECT THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH LOWER LEVELS FEATURE LAGGING A
BIT MORE THE SE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE THAN WHAT HAS
OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THAT SAID...THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS (H5 AT OR BELOW -8 DEG C)
THAT ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS IS NOW NOT FORECAST TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TOMORROW. THIS MEANS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
(CAPE...LIS...ETC) ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANTICIPATED
LEADING UP TO TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE REFLECTING THIS
IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH FIELDS WHICH ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IN
ADDITION...THE GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS
LEADING TO WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS.

WHILE IT SEEMS SUBTLE...WE HAVE FOUND THESE MINOR DETAILS
DESCRIBED ABOVE CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TSTM STRENGTH.
SO...WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WHILE NOT 0 IS LESS THAN EXPECTED LEADING UP TO TODAY AND
THERE IS ALSO MORE UNCERTAINTY WRT IN LOCATION OF BEST BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THEREFORE HIGHEST POP
LOCATION. ALSO THERE IS LESS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK
ALTHOUGH AGAIN WITH RIGHT OUTFLOWS STILL COULD HAPPEN AND THE
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AT LEAST NEAR THE COASTLINE REMAINS
ELEVATED.

GIVEN EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD STORMS...HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE AREAS COVERED BY LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED MAX POPS TO 70
PERCENT NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR SOUTH RUSKIN.

&&
90l is pretty impressive it covers are large area dvorak loop
Quoting 61. wunderkidcayman:

90L is moving WSW at 238°
I suspect a W-WSW movement to continue through 30W


Then it turns wnw and eventually NW way north of the islands (if it ever develops).
Recon is in route to investigate Norbert. Any guesses to what they find? The NHC has 85mph right now. That's probably pretty close to accurate I think, maybe a little on the low side.

Quoting bamabeachgirl:


Sar, don't be too upset. While it was raining in Gulf Shores, at my house about 6 miles away, no rain. Not a drop! In fact the sun was shining!
That seems to be the pattern this year for us. If you're under on of those, you get a nice rain. A couple miles down the road and we see nothing. Without some kind of tropical wave or storm, we have no chance for general rains. There were some nice looking (on radar) storms over Montgomery yesterday. The airport got 0.01" while Maxwell AFB, only about 8 miles away, got 0.58" and Millbrook, 11 miles away, got 1.07". Not an unusual pattern but, for those of us who haven't been favored by these storm, it's like they never existed. Combined with the heatwaves we've been having, it's pretty tough on our lawns and crops. A well behaved 45 mph tropical storm making landfall near Mobile would be a very nice event for most of the state.
Might have some stormy weather along the south atlantic coastline..........................
If that doesn't look an el nino influenced Atlantic, then I must not know what does. Yes, I'm aware there hasn't been one declared.




Best of luck 90!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902014 09/04/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 66 63 59 53 48 43 43 40 39

Sigh..
At least the RH values don't go in the tank until 3 days out. Might get the blog excited about this being a TD/TS already and why doesn't the NHC name this thing. On Day 4, reality begins to set in...

If that doesn't look an el nino influenced Atlantic, then I must not know what does. Yes, I'm aware there hasn't been one declared.




exactly
Quoting 119. 69Viking:



There's no sign of a cool off across the Southeast anytime soon. Forecast shows our current hot and muggy weather continuing for the next 10 days, waters in the GOM will stay warm because of this. I'd gladly take a strong cold front that pushed as far South as Northern Florida but no sign of one anytime soon unfortunately!


Never said there was. Across the Midwest and NE US yes.
we say goodbye to inverst 90L SOON

Recon is in route to investigate Norbert. Any guesses to what they find? The NHC has 85mph right now. That's probably pretty close to accurate I think, maybe a little on the low side.



we're expecting here in the high desert to have moisture from norbert and dolly come together this weekend....good chance of flash flooding
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Recon is in route to investigate Norbert. Any guesses to what they find? The NHC has 85mph right now. That's probably pretty close to accurate I think, maybe a little on the low side.

85 mph might actually be a little generous. Norbert is struggling with some shear and dry air this morning. It should be able to shrug that off over the next 36 hours but I don't think we'll see much, if any, intensification within that time.
136. jpsb
Quoting 105. StormTrackerScott:



Exactly as it starts to cool off across the eastern US the heat will be focused across the tropics.


An interesting read Research Shows Unexpected Link Between Solar Activity And Regional Climate Change
Quoting 122. GatorWX:

Man, Scott, they're really loving on you today.


LOL. I'm fine with that as I don't do anything wrong but post weather well atleast most of the time until I watch the news and see what state we are in across the US.

Anyways here's the latest NAM. We might see the NHC highlight this area off the east coast of FL today as more and more models show development now.




Quoting 87. AtHomeInTX:



Lol. I don't remember 34. :)


Me either......... :(
Quoting 126. MAweatherboy1:

Recon is in route to investigate Norbert. Any guesses to what they find? The NHC has 85mph right now. That's probably pretty close to accurate I think, maybe a little on the low side.




Never know....

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 973.0mb/ 77.0kt

Looks like an 80-90mph storm to me. Not sure of pressure of 973, maybe low to mid 980's. Looks better than the atl's last two storms before they got n of 30-35.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Never said there was. Across the Midwest and NE US yes.


Well, the NHC mentions a weak front but on this end of things my local NWS says it won't do much either.

GMZ001-050315-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1106 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SW GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF SUN AND MON. AN E TO W RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N LATE
SAT WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH MON NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUN.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

THIS WILL
USHER A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROF ALOFT
AND THE SFC FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DECENT CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ACRS THE AREA SATURDAY.

THE FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FM THE WARM HUMID
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN E TX/CNTL LA.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Then it turns wnw and eventually NW way north of the islands (if it ever develops).

FISHCASTER!!!!!

Lol

I say weaker system so
More W-WNW not so NW

Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:



LOL. I'm fine with that as I don't do anything wrong but post weather well atleast most of the time until I watch the news and see what state we are in across the US.

Anyways here's the latest NAM. We might see the NHC highlight this area off the east coast of FL today as more and more models show development now.







I know a few of the models have been hinting at the Carolinas being a possible spot for development. Not much activity near the surface though, seems.



Might get a mention, but as of now I'd go with 0/10 tops lol.
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902014 09/04/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 66 63 59 53 48 43 43 40 39

Sigh..


Lack of a 12Z SHIPS or early guidance track guidance, I think 90L may be dead already, as far as being an invest. I used to be able to find activate, deactivate and upgrade messages for invests on the NHC ftp, but they seem to h
ave hidden it.
Quoting GatorWX:


I know a few of the models have been hinting at the Carolinas being a possible spot for development. Not much activity near the surface though, seems.



Might get a mention, but as of now I'd go with 0/10 tops lol.


Looks like the GFS is still keeping the east coast system over land.
Quoting 126. MAweatherboy1:

Recon is in route to investigate Norbert. Any guesses to what they find? The NHC has 85mph right now. That's probably pretty close to accurate I think, maybe a little on the low side.




I think they'll find a sub 970 mb 100mph storm. It's certainly looking really good with constant intense convection over the center.

Quoting 144. AtHomeInTX:



Looks like the GFS is still keeping the east coast system over land.


GFS was never enthusiastic about the potential development..It was the Euro/CMC and UKMET..
Quoting 141. wunderkidcayman:


FISHCASTER!!!!!

Lol

I say weaker system so
More W-WNW not so NW




I'll be the biggest wishcaster on here when I think it is a possibility. Right now I just don't see it.
I believe the weak circulation moving to the N.W. just east of Daytona Beach could end up being our eastcoast Low.
It's worth watching.
Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:



Never said there was. Across the Midwest and NE US yes.


I'll give you the Midwest but the NE is cooking right now and not looking for a big cool down for a while it seems. Summer seems to be holding on longer for areas East of the Mississippi this year.
Quoting 142. GatorWX:



I know a few of the models have been hinting at the Carolinas being a possible spot for development. Not much activity near the surface though, seems.



Might get a mention, but as of now I'd go with 0/10 tops lol.


considering the development isn't supposed to start until about 70 hours from now I would say you are correct in not seeing any thing on your map..
Quoting 111. SFLWeatherman:

Hurricane ‪#‎Frances‬ that slammed into Florida 10 years ago today. Landfall was at 1am on Sept. 5.




That was the first storm I chased. Charley came to me. That little monster changed everything about my fascination of weather. I was in south Dade not too long after Andrew, but cleanup was already well underway and I was only 7. Charley wiped out everything south of me to Ft. Myers. It was both scary and absolutely incredible.

I rendezvoused with Frances near Wauchula. Wasn't too big a deal at that point. I saw only 50-60 mhp gusts. Wish I had some gear then. Have a little anemometer/barometer now, but there hasn't been anything to chase. I did have a nice app on my razr phone with a very slow radar and an almost zoom ability. It came in handy though.
12z SREF ensembles..

Quoting 150. ncstorm:



considering the development isn't supposed to start until about 70 hours from now I would say you are correct in not seeing any thing on your map..


Thanks. I for one am not going to pay too much attention until there is something on my map.
Quoting 108. FBMinFL:

I know of a place where the weather can be fun ...
I know ya do jeff but be careful very very careful
Quoting ncstorm:


GFS was never enthusiastic about the potential development..It was the Euro/CMC and UKMET..


Yeah something to watch for sure. Was just looking at the GFS running at that moment. :)
Quoting 126. MAweatherboy1:

Recon is in route to investigate Norbert. Any guesses to what they find? The NHC has 85mph right now. That's probably pretty close to accurate I think, maybe a little on the low side.



Somewhere in the 80-85 mph range.

We've also got a little rotation with the activity further down the coast that's moving to the north.
Let's hope the high rain chances forecast over the next several days here pan out. We have been significantly drier than normal for the past month. Typically, systems off the East Coast do not give us enhanced, but rather suppressed rain chances during our rainy season. Since our rainy season is already winding down here, the last thing I want to see is one of these pesky lows hanging out off our East Coast, then of course heading north.
Quoting 154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I know ya do jeff but be careful very very careful


How are you doing Keep? ready for snow yet?
no snow for a while yet curr temp is 80 humidex 93

in on lunch humid air building back in little sticky out be a warm day 86 by this afternoon around 2 or so

one more day after that then cool down move's in

then be happy better for working in
might be some stream and creek flooding thru this weekend...................
let's have some 5 day models...but first a word from my personal adviser....



Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.


163. JRRP

Quoting 154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I know ya do jeff but be careful very very careful


Not sure what that means, but okay. Anyway, speaking of being careful ... we should all be careful not to become complacent as we approach the peak of hurricane season, as The Chart below shows:

Quoting luvtogolf:


I'll be the biggest wishcaster on here when I think it is a possibility. Right now I just don't see it.

What ever

Anyway you know that sometimes you can be great fun


to much wind shear
cmc is busy...to 90l still there...the blob behind it...and what is this....a player off of the east coast?????

ecmwf isn't nearly as much fun....as it only sees the second wave off of africa.....

Quoting 160. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no snow for a while yet curr temp is 80 humidex 93

in on lunch humid air building back in little sticky out be a warm day 86 by this afternoon around 2 or so

one more day after that then cool down move's in

then be happy better for working in


Getting frost on the cars in the morning here. Some of the higher mountains around here are getting some snow cover on them... WInter... it's a coming...
Quoting 158. HurrMichaelOrl:

Let's hope the high rain chances forecast over the next several days here pan out. We have been significantly drier than normal for the past month. Typically, systems off the Easy Coast do not give us enhanced, but rather suppressed rain chances during our rainy season. Since our rainy season is already winding down here, the last thing I want to see is one of these pesky lows hanging out off our East Coast, then of course heading north.


What's interesting is it appears there might be a weak low just west of Orlando as there are ESE winds here on the northside of orlando while there are SSE or even SSW winds south of orlando. With that said I would expect a very heavy concentration of thunderstorms across interior of C FL this afternoon which drop several inches of rain in a short period of time.

Hard to tell but there appears to be a slight veering across C FL.


Quoting 120. bamabeachgirl:



Sar, don't be too upset. While it was raining in Gulf Shores, at my house about 6 miles away, no rain. Not a drop! In fact the sun was shining!
Got some rain in the Pensacola area this morning, probably not enough to make a difference for plants, but just enough to evaporate off and increase the humidity.
Quoting 164. FBMinFL:



Not sure what that means, but okay. Anyway, speaking of being careful ... we should all be careful not to become complacent as we approach the peak of hurricane season, as The Chart below shows:


yep and with the peak comes the downward slide after that with a secondary peak mid oct and those late season storms can spin up fast on there travels from sw towards the ne and the seasons begin to change up
Quoting ricderr:
cmc is busy...to 90l still there...the blob behind it...and what is this....a player off of the east coast?????



Yeah, CMC has been prediction a coastal low for a couple days.
It's very possible given the setup. That's why I'm watching for a low trying to form just off the coast of Fl.
gfs sees the low off of nc just starting..but makes a bigger deal of 90l and the following wave

New tropical wave 90L emerges from the African coast
A well-organized tropical wave (designated 90L by NHC on Thursday morning) has emerged from the coast of Africa, and is moving to the west at about 15 mph. Satellite images show the wave has plenty of spin, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and the ocean temperatures are warm, near 28°C (82°F.) The core of the wave will pass a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands on Friday. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation show development by Monday, and in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 10% and 40%, respectively. The Thursday morning long-range runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with a low threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands indicated. The Atlantic is expected to be dominated by dry, sinking air next week, due to the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, so I expect that 90L will struggle to develop. Indeed, the 2 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model showed 90L encountering increasingly dry air over the next five days in the face of moderate wind shear--conditions hostile for development.

i do not see anything happern to invest 90L AT ALL!!
Quoting 169. Dakster:



Getting frost on the cars in the morning here. WInter is coming... Some of the higher mountains around here are getting some snow cover on them... WInter... it's a coming...
normal for where you are the days light is losing as well wait till its dark 18 hrs of the day
12z GFS, 168 hours, storm developing in the western Caribbean, two tropical storms in the MDR.

edit due to map already posted
Quoting 176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

normal for where you are the days light is losing as well wait till its dark 18 hrs of the day


It starts to get light around 630am and gets dark around 930pm right now... I know that we are losing daylight by double digit minutes per day right now. Really darkness doesn't bother me... and light all the time doesn't either. I worked so many different "shifts" at work that you learn to sleep when it is light out and be awak when it is dark out.
Quoting 157. Sfloridacat5:

We've also got a little rotation with the activity further down the coast that's moving to the north.



Rotation of the radar echos off the FL coast is due to an upper level low that's been hanging around the Bahamas for days, perhaps a TUTT. TC's usually do not develop under upper lows; they need anticyclonic flow aloft to provide outflow.
Quoting ncstorm:
edit due to map already posted



lol you two great minds think alike
navgem sees only 90l.......however..it gives it an interesting field of play.....hmmmmmmm...notice that they all do.......i think we need a five day shear map.................

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


What's interesting is it appears there might be a weak low just west of Orlando as there are ESE winds here on the northside of orlando while there are SSE or even SSW winds south of orlando. With that said I would expect a very heavy concentration of thunderstorms across interior of C FL this afternoon which drop several inches of rain in a short period of time.

Hard to tell but there appears to be a slight veering across C FL.



See post #157.
Definitely a weak circulation just off the east coast. It's also noticeable on visible satellite.
One of these circulations may get going over the next day or two.
Quoting 178. ncstorm:

edit due to map already posted


I think our low that the NAM, Euro, and UKMET are showing developing is sitting over C FL right now and the latest GFS seems to agree with that.

Here's the GFS at 12HRS. Notice there appears to be low sitting right over us albeit very very weak.

Quoting 183. Sfloridacat5:



See post #157.
Definitely a weak circulation just off the east coast. It's also noticeable on visible satellite.
One of these circulations may get going over the next day or two.


Seems like there is a nice trough with maybe a weak surface reflection over Lake County west of Orlando.
Quoting captaincaneguru:


Rotation of the radar echos off the FL coast is due to an upper level low that's been hanging around the Bahamas for days, perhaps a TUTT. TC's usually do not develop under upper lows; they need anticyclonic flow aloft to provide outflow.


I'm not sure if the small circulation moving north off the east coast is the ULL.
I think the ULL can be seen with a larger more generalize circulation partially moving into the GOM and across parts of Fl.

I'll have to watch it more to be certain. But I've been watching for the ULL that you mentioned.
Quoting 172. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep and with the peak comes the downward slide after that with a secondary peak mid oct and those late season storms can spin up fast on there travels from sw towards the ne and the seasons begin to change up


Whenever Tampa gets it's next significant hurricane I think it will be one of those quickly forming back door systems in October that form near the Caymans/Yucatan like Wilma.
Highs near 40 across northern MN next Thursday and this isn't even the heart of the cold airmass coming down.

Quoting 183. Sfloridacat5:



See post #157.
Definitely a weak circulation just off the east coast. It's also noticeable on visible satellite.
One of these circulations may get going over the next day or two.

thought the same thing a few days ago, watching it. Only thing close to home to keep a eye on.

The
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I believe the weak circulation moving to the N.W. just east of Daytona Beach could end up being our eastcoast Low.
It's worth watching.
I think it's part of an UL trough that goes from the Bahamas all the way down to the Gulf of Honduras. The NHC talked about this in the 8:05 discussion. The forecast is for the trough to continue to move east. There's a cold front coming down from the Plains that should turn stationary off the East Coast on Monday. The low should form off the coast of SC on the front and then travel NE along the front, being well off the coast of New England by Thursday.

Surface Forecast for Monday -





Surface Forecast for Thursday -


Once we get this big blow up of thunderstorms over C FL over the next several hours we will begin to get a feel for where this circulation is trying to form.
Quoting 184. StormTrackerScott:



I think our low that the NAM, Euro, and UKMET are showing developing is sitting over C FL right now and the latest GFS seems to agree with that.

Here's the GFS at 12HRS. Notice there appears to be low sitting right over us albeit very very weak.



Looks like the 12z Navgem is trying to show some potential now..at 72 hours




192 hours


Here comes the cold air rushing south at day 8.



About 10 to 15 degrees below average. Not too bad but much cooler than it has been across the Midwest.

On the water vapar loop, it looks like there is an elongated ULL over the western Caribbean extending across western Cuba into the Southern Bahamas.
240HRS
Quoting 189. win1gamegiantsplease:



Whenever Tampa gets it's next significant hurricane I think it will be one of those quickly forming back door systems in October that form near the Caymans/Yucatan like Wilma.
then cold air blasts in behind them to make it worst if an area is hit late in season people forget that sometimes unless of course its fla that gets hit then its just cooler but cold to there standards
To far out! But WOW That is cold!
WOW!! 40's all the way down to Alabama & Georgia on the 12Z GFS. What a blast of cold air that is being forecast by the models. Keeper better get his snow blower ready early this year.



Temps pushing 20 degrees below average. Insane!

12z CMC 84 hours
204. JRRP
Quoting ncstorm:
192 hours



big storm NE of the islands
Quoting 200. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

then cold air blasts in behind them to make it worst if an area is hit late in season people forget that sometimes unless of coarse its fla that gets hit then its just cooler but cold to there standards


How do you like highs in the 40's Keeper. GFS lowers the boom next week across the US with a deep plunge of cold air.
Quoting 165. wunderkidcayman:


What ever

Anyway you know that sometimes you can be great fun


It's just a party. Any damage from those quakes?
Quoting 201. SFLWeatherman:

To far out! But WOW That is cold!



GFS is unleashing the mother load this run. Must be the same system that went thru Alaska where Dak is located.
108 hours 12z CMC
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 200. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

then cold air blasts in behind them to make it worst if an area is hit late in season people forget that sometimes unless of coarse its fla that gets hit then its just cooler but cold to there standards


No power when it's cool is better in my book than it being hot like after Andrew or Katrina. Grilling outside might be the ideal fireplace
Killing freezes across a good chunk of the US on this run of the GFS. 20 degrees below average atleast in some areas.
Quoting 201. SFLWeatherman:

To far out! But WOW That is cold!

well growing up in NYC we fully expected it to get cooler and colder comes september,no one up there would be surprised i bet..
213. JRRP
Quoting 202. StormTrackerScott:

WOW!! 40's all the way down to Alabama & Georgia on the 12Z GFS. What a blast of cold air that is being forecast by the models. Keeper better get his snow blower ready early this year.



Temps pushing 20 degrees below average. Insane!


don't you be worrying about me and my snowblower scott I will be ready when the time comes first of winter preps start next week with inspection and checkup and cleaning of the boilers to ready up for the cold weather after that then the rest of the things that need to be done will start
Keep in mind, Euro got the ridge holding up for another week or two for Southeast. Therefore, the cold is slightly farther west and for a smaller area. Models are starting to agree about cold air flowing into Midwest, but there are still some disagreement about how far south and east such as Alabama, Georgia, Carolinas, etc.
216. MahFL
Whats that swirl ?

A better look at the circulation pin wheeling towards the coast off N.E. Florida.
Quoting MahFL:
Whats that swirl ?



Too funny. See post below. That's just one of the ciculations I've been watching.
It shows up on Visible Sat and Radar quite well.
I'm trying to figure out where the Low that the NAM and CMC are predicting will originate.
Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



GFS is unleashing the mother load this run. Must be the same system that went thru Alaska where Dak is located.


Scott, the record low for International Falls for today's date is 31 F. This model run is 360 hours out. It's an early front. They have been higher amplitude than most, but it's certainly nothing to get too excited about. It's almost fall. In '08, I stayed in upstate NY for the summer. It was in the mid-40's a couple nights in July. Granted we were 2250 feet up, but not too high really. Just sayin'.
Look an inner and outer eye wall. Just playing, but it's pretending to be a storm.

Here in Ormond Beach (10 miles north of Daytona) we're keeping an eye on this one, because it might affect our plans to go fishing at the beach after work. Pretty sure I see some outer bands already, although those might just be the usual random clouds we get on a normal summer day.... still.... we're watching this.....According to WU, winds are now gusting up to 1 mph (not kidding!) and surf-forecast.com is calling for 1 - 1.5 foot surf..... it can only get bigger, faster, stronger..... of course, it can't get much smaller, slower, or weaker, but there you go......

Quoting 220. Sfloridacat5:

Look an inner and outer eye wall. Just playing, but it's pretending to be a storm.



NOAA surface charts forms the low inland over South Carolina and then moves it offshore. I'm not sure I'm buying that forecast.
I'm thinking an offshore feature will interact with the boundary to form the low.
Time will tell.
Here's NOAA placement of the low in 4 days after moving offshore.

Quoting EdwardinAlaska:
Here in Ormond Beach (10 miles north of Daytona) we're keeping an eye on this one, because it might affect our plans to go fishing at the beach after work. Pretty sure I see some outer bands already, although those might just be the usual random clouds we get on a normal summer day.... still.... we're watching this.....According to WU, winds are now gusting up to 1 mph (not kidding!) and surf-forecast.com is calling for 1 - 1.5 foot surf..... it can only get bigger, faster, stronger..... of course, it can't get much smaller, slower, or weaker, but there you go......




Definitely an interesting little feature. It will likely bring some squally weather to the coastal areas. I'm curious to see if it keep going N.W. and plows into the coast or stalls out.
But there's also the chance it just dissipates.
adios Joan Rivers,may god keep you safe in his house........................