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Hurricane Matthew Rapidly Intensifies to Category 3 Strength

By: Jeff Masters 3:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2016

Hurricane Matthew put on an impressive and unexpected display of rapid intensification overnight, becoming the Caribbean's first major hurricane since Sandy of 2012. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in Matthew on Friday morning, and between 7 am and 10 am EDT found that Matthew’s winds continued to rise and the pressure to fall. Surface winds measured by their stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) were as high as 114 mph, and flight-level winds at 10,000 feet hit 118 mph, putting Matthew at minimal Category 3 strength. Between 7 am and 10 am, Matthew’s central pressure fell 3 mb, to 968 mb.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Matthew.

Matthew’s rapid intensification was something of a surprise, as it occurred despite the presence of strong upper-level winds out of the southwest that were creating high wind shear of 20 knots. The intensity models generally failed to predict the rapid intensification, though the SHIPS model did give a 38% chance last night that we would see the observed amount of intensification that has occurred.


Figure 2. Curacao radar at 7:30 am EDT September 30, 2016 showed that Matthew had a well-formed eye and had spiral bands that were bringing heavy rains to the northern coast of South America. Plenty of lightning (black squiggles) was observed in the western eyewall and in region of heavy thunderstorms well to the east of the center. At this time, Matthew was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Meteorological Department of Curacao.

Satellite loops on Friday morning showed an eye that was intermittently visible. At upper levels, high cirrus clouds streaming to the north of Matthew showed the presence of a powerful outflow channel, which was helping ventilate the storm and allowing it to intensify in the face of the high wind shear. There was little evidence of a second outflow channel becoming established to Matthew’s south, which one can see in the latest Upper Level Winds analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. If this second outflow channel becomes well-established, continued intensification of Matthew becomes more likely. Aiding development today were warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F) and 60 - 65% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere, as analyzed by the SHIPS model.


Figure 3. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Matthew as of 1345Z (9:45 am EDT) Friday, September 30, 2016. An eye at Matthew's center is partially enclosed by the satellite signal of the most intense thunderstorms.

Three-day forecast for Matthew
Matthew will continue west-southwest to west through Saturday, slowing down from a forward speed of 14 mph on Friday morning to 7 mph by Saturday morning. The core of the storm will make its closest approach to northern Venezuela and northern Colombia on Friday night. This region will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and will likely escape receiving tropical-storm-force winds, though rains of 2 - 4” can be expected. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will steadily drop during the next two days, reaching the low range, less than 10 knots, by Saturday evening. Intensification by Matthew into a strong Category 3 hurricane by Sunday may occur due to the declining shear, though none of our top three intensity models—the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models—were predicting on Friday morning that Matthew would achieve Category 4 strength over the coming five days. The SHIPS model gave Matthew a 32% chance of becoming a Category 4 storm by Saturday, and a 12% chance of intensifying into a Category 5 storm by Sunday.


Figure 4. This morning’s forecasts had the advantage of assimilating data from a mission flown Thursday night by NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet. This aircraft, nicknamed “Gonzo”, released a series of 29 dropsondes that fell on parachutes and radioed back information on temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds as they fell from the 45,000-foot flying altitude of Gonzo. Data from these sorts of missions can improve hurricane track forecasts by as much as 20%. It’s good to have “Gonzo” back, as it was down for extended maintenance in late August and early September due to a corrosion problem, and was not available at all during Hurricane Hermine. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Longer-range forecast for Matthew: Miami in the cone of uncertainty
Major differences continue in the longer-range model forecasts for Matthew, though the differences between our two best models—the GFS and European model—have shrunk since Thursday’s runs. This may be because of dropsonde data taken by the NOAA jet on Thursday evening, which was ingested into the 00Z Friday runs of the models. A large upper-level low pressure system over east-central U.S. will begin pulling Matthew sharply to the northwest by Sunday, but the exact timing of the turn is in doubt, resulting in major model differences in Matthew’s track. An earlier turn and faster northward motion is being predicted by the GFS model, with a landfall by the storm in Jamaica on Monday morning. The European model has Matthew heading northwards about half a day later than the GFS model, with a landfall in southwest Haiti on Monday night. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 5), the long-range uncertainties in Matthew’s long-range track are high. The tight clustering of the GFS model ensembles is quite striking compared to the spaghetti-like appearance of the European model ensembles. The differences between the Euro and GFS, and the large spread within the Euro ensemble, are perhaps not too surprising, since a slower motion for Matthew means the anticipated steering currents are weak, making them more prone to random variations. However, the persistent tight clustering of the GFS ensembles is a bit suspicious, suggesting that the model may have some sort of systematic error in its forecast.





Figure 5. The 70 forecasts from the 00Z Friday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) continued to show a wide variety of solutions for the track of Matthew. The operational (deterministic) versions of the models, run at higher resolution, are shown in red lines. The two models have grown closer together in their solutions compared to Thursday, but the European model still shows a considerably slower track for Matthew than the GFS model.

Matthew’s anticipated landfall over Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti on Monday will weaken the storm, due to the high mountains it will interact with. This process may completely disrupt the inner core of Matthew, reducing the storm to Category 1 or 2 strength for several days, as it traverses The Bahamas. The storm may be able to re-intensify to major hurricane status in 2 - 3 days, though, over the exceptionally warm waters surrounding The Bahamas. If the GFS model is correct, Matthew will not punish The Bahamas for multiple days, but will instead march northwards just offshore the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the 00Z Friday run of the UKMET model suggests that the trough of low pressure pulling Matthew to the north will be too weak to continue doing this next week; high pressure will build in on Tuesday, forcing Matthew on a more northwesterly track through the heart of The Bahamas to a point perilously close to South Florida by Thursday. The five members of the European model ensemble that most closely match the operational run over the first 72 hours (Figure 6) have two members that go along with this idea. NHC has put the 5-day cone of uncertainty for Matthew very close to Miami, and it appears likely at this point that South Florida will experience at least the fringes of Matthew, with some heavy rains, if not a direct hit. In addition, the GFS and European ensembles suggest that Matthew could move quite close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina late next week.


Figure 6. Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Friday, September 30, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Friday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

We will be back this afternoon with an update on Matthew. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory posted a Friday morning update on Matthew, MATTHEW NEARS CAT 3 - EAST COAST THREAT CONTINUES.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great time for a blog lag, said nobody ever.
Quoting 918. TX2FL:



What does it indicate?
It indicates Mathew looping and stalling in the Bahamas.
Strong ridge, closing in. Models not handling this very well.
Quoting 934. Plaza23:



Look at the big Ridge to the NE of Matthew. It's really building in and pushing that upper low back West even.
1004. 62901IL
Quoting 956. zczczc:



They deserve a freaking medal. Each pass is probably worse than the one before...


Agreed
Quoting 885. thetwilightzone:



so i gust we can throw the models out?

What if a hacker were able to take the models and satellites down tonight? What would happen? Welcome to 1954. Okay that had nothing to do with Matthew but sounds like a horrible movie plot. -Matthew in Darkness-
I wonder why recon decided to use this flight pattern. Perhaps it has to do with the other flight sampling the periphery at the same time? Regardless, I'm absolutely loving the high density wind data from the eyewall.

Gonna just stop making comments and just post picks until the Blog speeds up again...........................

:( this so scary for Jamaica and Cuba. am hope this thing weaken somehow before then.
1009. ncstorm
12 Euro ensembles look like the 12z GFS Operational..

I'm out till later..







Quoting 947. MiamiHurricanes09:

Blog on some record breaking slowness right now lol.


You have no idea
Is this a coincidence?

1. Black Moon rises tonight.

2. 4000 days (40 X 100) since last major hurricane to hit the USA. (The number forty also had great symbolic meaning to the Jews and today among Christians and Muslims as well. The number forty to the Jews is a number that, when used in terms of time, represents a period of probation, trial, and chastisement.)

3. Matthew (1st book of the New Testament) & the name of this hurricane. (as in Matthew 24:1-3)
Quoting 918. TX2FL:



What does it indicate?


On thing it indicates is that the Euro can not be trusted at this time because it has not been consistent.
1013. 19N81W
yup.....you almost have to have no fear just wondering if the next jolt takes the wing off.....
Quoting 961. nash36:



Amen to that!

It takes a special set of stones to fly into that wrath.

Either that, or someone lost a bet.

Jokes aside, they have my utmost respect. Heading home from work. Back with you guys in a bit.
948 mb...
1015. CW7859
Quoting 955. StormBohner:



Look at that trough making zero progress east past a line from TPA to JAX, and getting thinned out at the same time.


The trough is getting the squeeze play, HP over Texas and a ridge building in across the Atlantic behind Matthew.
September 30th 2005



Yesterday



A very dangerous environment for a developing major hurricane
Another dropsonde measuring 151kts at the 925mb level - Link
Quoting 936. HiWay58:



Can someone with better historical knowledge compare the yet undisturbed TCHP that this has the potential of going over at it's already impressive strength? What was the TCHP in the 2005 season in that region?


Hey, guess what? There's a whole archive to this bog! Here is one from just before Wilma formed (which is what I assumed you were referring to in regards to 2005), which has the SST map for the Caribbean but not the TCHP

Eye on Jamaica (October 14, 2005)
Prepare to engage R-F5K (rapid F5 key) protocol.

I hope the IBM servers are up to the task. Doesn't seem like that trough is moving as quickly as expected.
Quoting 936. HiWay58:



Can someone with better historical knowledge compare the yet undisturbed TCHP that this has the potential of going over at it's already impressive strength? What was the TCHP in the 2005 season in that region?


Katrina was over 90-110 kj/cm2 when it bombed out in the FL straights and gulf. This storm is over similar water now and it will eventually go over 120 and higher...depending on exact path.
1021. 19N81W
turn
Quoting 969. StormBohner:



They are just being honest. They didn't expect it to strengthen. They also expect it to make a hard right turn north.
Quoting 960. Plaza23:



Look at the big Ridge to the NE of Matthew. It's really building in and pushing that upper low back West even.
Every season there is hope for that really big storm, then whing and fussing when it it does not happen. I love watching with amazement when a big storm materializes, BUT only enjoy them when they are OTS and harmlessly beautiful in the middle of the Atlantic where I can watch in amazdment at the beauty and power of Mother Nature. Yes, I can marvel at Matthew, but this is just too close to home...for hundreds, maybe thousands, of people. Glad to have a big storm, sick to death for the potential destruction and loss of life/lives. Guess we all should be careful what we wish for. Might just come along and bite us on our rearends! Seriously, thanks to Dr. Masters for this blog and all of keeping us updated and sharing info. Gro, Pat, Baha, Levi, and everyone else you guys rock. This old lady has learned so much over the years. My co-workers at the hospital now call me the "weather lady" because I am constantly sharing your info with them!, you all would be surprised at how many folks do not know anything is brewing in the tropics until I mention it!
Just came to the realization that Matthew is making a statement for all the struggling hurricanes and tropical storms we have seen for the past several seasons in the Caribbean; this basin can still support a major regardless of what you were seeing the past few years and regardless of dry air or shear dammit............................................ ...
1024. Plaza23
Quoting 971. DeepSeaRising:

Top end potential should top off at 900-910mb and winds around 190mph. Would be highly unlikely for that to happen.


It's not unprecedented. Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 bottomed out near Jamaica if I remember right or very close to it. 886 MBs
Recon on their way back in... Shame the blog is slow!


203230 1342N 07120W 7741 02072 9824 +148 //// 131103 108 076 037 01
203300 1341N 07122W 7702 02072 9782 +139 //// 128114 116 086 060 01

More high flight level winds.
Hurricane Matthew on Aruba (posted 6 hours ago)

If anyone want to convert to embed it's not a bad video.
https://youtu.be/XsgmTEUixpE
Quoting 377. anthmiranda:

Any guesses on final lowest millibar pressure?

950-959
940-949
930-939
920-929
910-919
-910


894
1028. FSU2009
Quoting 965. thetwilightzone:



i think mat has a good ch of hiting cat 5 at lest 3 times


?? Nah..chance? Possible at best..good chance? Nah
Quoting 969. StormBohner:



They are just being honest. They didn't expect it to strengthen. They also expect it to make a hard right turn north.


At 12 pm this afternoon the head of the NHC in Miami was on our local news. He said he expected Matthew to weaken due to wind shear and dry air.
That hasn't worked out so well.
Matthew its strengthening at a similar rate like Felix of 2007. They are even near the same location. Matthew is really a beast right, Thank God I am not in its path but I will be praying for those that are. Colombia, Venezuela and the ABC islands should be getting rough waves right now. Jamaica should be in a hurricane watch at the 5pm advisory or at the 11pm. Matthew is exploding in the Central Caribbean cant imagine if it was in the Western Caribbean were the Ocean surface heat is unbelievable. What a beautiful but potentially deadly storm we have right now.
WoW! Matthew really has blown up and fire under it with some real getty up in it's step and appears more may be coming. This storm ain't playin around! Just WOW! I can't imagine what it may do when it hits those boiling waters ahead still.
Wow! This is impressive rapid intensification.

I have a feeling all the 1700 models are going to be out to lunch!
Eye continues to warm:



Wow!
1035. ProPoly
Quoting 983. nothingtoofancy:

Has Matthew reached the bombogenesis threshold yet? I haven't really seen anyone mention it.


People don't feel like making quips. This bombing out means folks will die.
Quoting 964. jeffs713:


Because there is a LOT that can derail an intensity forecast downwards, but a lot that has to go right for storms to bomb out. Which would you rather have... a forecast that is too low 5% of the time, or a forecast that is too high 80% of the time?


My point simply is that more often than not the intensity forecasts are materially below what actually comes to pass. The central and NW Caribbean always seems to have " the right stuff " for storms to bomb out as you say.

The 5% to 80% book ends that you postulate do not, I believe, represent the actual statistics one way or another. In any event, this is yet another example of an intensity forecast that is materially off.
Blog test - 4:41 pm
I had a 15 minute delay on my comment.
Hopefully, that will improve.

Hot and sunny over here in Fort Myers. Beautiful day if you like the sun and hot weather.
A shame that the blog is so slow, but the WU community is rocking it here today. Awesome info. A special event unfolding.
1039. IDTH
This isn't a Hurricane, it's a monster.
Quoting 963. CybrTeddy:

I recall Felix in 2007 going nuts in roughly the same location Matthew currently is.


Wow, you're right, and here's visual evidence, eerily similar actually



1041. Ed22
Quoting 957. weathermanwannabe:

And another hot tower just to the NW of the eye that you can clearly see on the loops:





Maybe Matthew skip Cat 4 and go straight to Cat 5, possibility is their.
Quoting 928. kmanislander:



How many times have we seen intensity forecasts blown open in the central and NW Caribbean. Happens all the time and yet the conservative approach to intensity forecasts prevails year after year.

Well there's also storms like Erika and Karl (not a carib storm but still a good example) that way under perform the NHC is doing the best it can but as we all know intensity forecasts from anyone are not very accurate.
i bet the NHC is going YAWN i give up you win
Looks like the blog is running about 12 minutes behind.....
Quoting 966. StormJunkie:



That would be insanely awesome and extremely bandwidth intensive.


This is not that difficult nor as bandwidth intensive as you may think. The deal is, what good does this do them? You'd need their PR dept to buy into and fund the idea.
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 19:45:30Z
Coordinates: 13.667N 71.400W
Acft. Static Air Press: 753.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,121 m (6,959 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 953.9 mb (28.17 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 104° at 81 kts (From the ESE at 93.2 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 90 kts (103.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 111 kts (127.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (0.24 in/hr)
Quoting 991. kmanislander:



Servers must be redlined and smoking LOL. Give us all she's got Scotty !!


The needles are pegged, there's nothing left! ole' Bessie is all out of juice and now we just lost the rudder lol! Blog is very slow seems like 10 minutes for one post to come in now.
Does appear Matthew is slowly slowing down. It looks to be going about 10 mph now.
1049. IDTH
Just imagine Dmax?
Quoting 982. IDTH:

Is this how Wilma's RI felt watching it happen? I wasn't around back then but this is definitely what I feared could happen in 2016 when conditions became ripe around the Caribbean.


Neither was I, but you can look it up in the archives. I just remember knowing there was a Wilma and then all of the sudden it broke Gilbert's record.
Quoting 982. IDTH:

Is this how Wilma's RI felt watching it happen? I wasn't around back then but this is definitely what I feared could happen in 2016 when conditions became ripe around the Caribbean.


Sort of, yes. I imagine everyone "feels" a little differently when watching something this rare and amazing.
I would love to hear the stories of these wonderful airmen/women aboard the HH flight this afternoon. What it was like. What they saw. I have been intrigued by the stories of others before in other intense canes, but this one is special, I think.
Blog's struggling to keep up with the amount of people commenting right now.
cat 4 @ 5pm ?
Matthew is outperforming what should be his peak intensity for conditions. That's insane, He shouldn't be able to get this strong conditionally right now. Conditions would suggest top end 900-910mb with winds close to 190mph down the road. Matthew is outperforming what should be his peak right now. He could also outperform what should be his peak conditionally towards Jamaica. We could see a sub 900mb storm with winds sustained around 200mph if this RI trend continues. No reason to believe it won't at this point. Trending to 155 mph storm by tonight, and 175-185 mph storm by this time tomorrow IF RI trend continues.
Quoting 1001. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Great time for a blog lag, said nobody ever.


at lest we have not broken the blog yet
1057. mfcmom
I have what you all might consider to be an irrelevant question. If the storm got much stronger, what is the possibility of it pushing through the steering issues and moving further west? Thank you in advance.
116kt surface wind measured by recon in the air:


203400 1338N 07126W 7520 02134 9607 +160 //// 137078 094 116 016 01
I just said "holy $#!%"out loud after looking at how Matthew is bombing out and my Dad got mad at me, thanks Matthew. :)

Damn.
Quoting 1006. 1900hurricane:

I wonder why recon decided to use this flight pattern. Perhaps it has to do with the other flight sampling the periphery at the same time? Regardless, I'm absolutely loving the high density wind data from the eyewall.




From my understanding it's what they do when a system is undergoing rapid intensification.
1061. sigh
Quoting 968. StormSearcher86:

Should we even bother trying to figure out what the storm will do and just let it do it's thing? It's like every forecast so far has been wrong, especially the NHC's intensity and track. I don't recall seeing any forecast that it would drift a little closer to SA (Unless I missed something).

Um... the NHC has been consistently forecasting the movement toward SA for days. The NHC track forecast has been basically dead on since the very beginning. Not sure how you missed all that...
Wow Matthew is crazy. This will be a Cat 4 I'm not ruling out Category 5 at some point.
Quoting 1006. 1900hurricane:

I wonder why recon decided to use this flight pattern. Perhaps it has to do with the other flight sampling the periphery at the same time? Regardless, I'm absolutely loving the high density wind data from the eyewall.



The storm is bombing out, they have the gas, and this gives not only valuable intel, but amazing scientific data regarding RI and hurricane structure.
Quoting 1001. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Great time for a blog lag, said nobody ever.


I'm guessing the TWC wasn't prepared for what happens to this blog when something Mathew comes along. There should be a contingency plan to immediately implement more server bandwidth...
I am going to be in York Town Va. Oct. 6-10. So I am a little more interested in Matthew never been in a Hurricane anywhere but the Pensacola area. I just looked at all 20 GFS ensembles for 168 to 180 hrs out 5 said Out to sea 4 hug the coast and 11 puts it inland anywhere from Jax. Fl. to Maine.
This is a strange coincidence!

1. Black Moon rises tonight
2. 4000 days (40 x 100) since last major hurricane hit the USA
3. Major Hurricane "Matthew"
Not to sound corny here (and admit to it in public) but my eyes are actually watering up and for two reasons; a) never expected to see this in the Caribbean this year (both the beauty and the power) and b) the devastation that will happen to whoever suffers through eye-wall or prolonged hurricane force winds from this storm as it finally approaches landfall some where along the path............................ This is the sad reality for storm-trackers and enthusiasts with the best case scenario hopefully being a perfect storm in the Central Atlantic away from populated regions.

Quoting 994. thetwilightzone:

down too 947mb and still falling

947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)

WOW 13mb lower than 3 hours ago it doesn't get much faster than that!
1069. Greg01
Have to admit I did not think such a hurricane was possible this year, particularly this far south in the Caribbean.
If you believe the euro model then Matthew should have started to turn already
Quoting 1011. NutZilla:

Is this a coincidence?

1. Black Moon rises tonight.

2. 4000 days (40 X 100) since last major hurricane to hit the USA. (The number forty also had great symbolic meaning to the Jews and today among Christians and Muslims as well. The number forty to the Jews is a number that, when used in terms of time, represents a period of probation, trial, and chastisement.)

3. Matthew (1st book of the New Testament) & the name of this hurricane. (as in Matthew 24:1-3)


It's the end times, might as well give me all your earthly possessions ;)



000
WTNT34 KNHC 302049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...

5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 13.5°N 71.6°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

Out until the blog decides to speed up a little. Should be back by the time the next Recon is wheels up lol.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwestern coast
of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 71.6 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this
tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be
near Jamaica on Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is
possible tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible
Saturday and Sunday. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
In September 1964 Hurricane Cleo came thru the Caribbean turned northward hit Jamica, Cuba, was supposed go nothing and northeast thru the Bahamas and out to sea, but instead moved north-northwest and went Dade, Broward , and Palm Bch counties, as a cat 2 storm.
...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 13.5°N 71.6°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
Oh my god its a 140 mph Category 4!! Less then 20 from a 5!
Quoting 1018. HighOnHurricanes:



Hey, guess what? There's a whole archive to this bog! Here is one from just before Wilma formed (which is what I assumed you were referring to in regards to 2005), which has the SST map for the Caribbean but not the TCHP

Eye on Jamaica (October 14, 2005)


Found this on Katrina. http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/hurricanes/8c.html
1080. barbamz
Quoting 1006. 1900hurricane:

I wonder why recon decided to use this flight pattern. Perhaps it has to do with the other flight sampling the periphery at the same time? Regardless, I'm absolutely loving the high density wind data from the eyewall.


It was said earlier (SJ? Nrt?) that this is supposed to be a research flight, so unusual flight patterns might be chosen.
1081. Tcwx2
This is what we've been saying all along. The hot SST's are dangerous and if a storm gets into those waters with favorable conditions, watch out. This is what we have feared all along. I sure hope that everyone in Jamaica, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas and possibly Florida and the entire Eastern Seaboard is prepared for Major Hurricane Matthew.
Watches out for Jamaica, and I guess I'll actually do some hw and let the blog catch up.
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 13.5°N 71.6°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
lol the NHC still have mat a little on the low side


mat could be come a cat 5 at any time
Praying for the place and the people where I was born * Santiago de Cuba*,it seems they will get a direct hit from Matthew.
I still remember the now infamous Hurricane * Flora* hitting Santiago de Cuba,very hard when I was a kid.
Starting to feel very uneasy regarding Matthew, just don't see that hard right turn!
1087. redux
its difficult to remember a system being so absolutely difficult to handicap.
Hurricane Matthew now a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds
Well, this just Very Serious
Quoting 1037. Sfloridacat5:

Blog test - 4:41 pm


15 minute delay
From the horses mouth

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
1092. SPShaw
LOL ...looks like the HH is just cruisin' round the eyewall and taking advantage of the RI time...
Down to 948 mb on last detection. What a great run and experience for them to have.
Category 4 officially confirmed.
1094. csmda
Was hoping we wouldn't see something like this for a long while. Ugh. Too bad we don't have a magic wand to "poof" it away.
1095. HarryMc
Quoting 1041. Ed22:

Maybe Matthew skip Cat 4 and go straight to Cat 5, possibility is their.


Cat 4 with 140 mph winds latest
1096. IDTH
Michael Lowry is saying take intensity forecasts with a grain of salt, just know there could be a significant Hurricane making it's way towards Jamaica and Cuba.

He's kicking butt right now on TWC.
Test @1657
More high winds recorded by recon on what looks to be their last pass:


204500 1338N 07126W 7564 02108 9512 +167 //// 148102 110 117 008 01
204530 1339N 07124W 7527 02108 9512 +155 //// 137115 118 112 027 01
204600 1341N 07123W 7503 02108 9512 +128 //// 128113 115 099 059 01

117kt surface winds highest from recon via the plane (not dropsonde).
I'm guessing we're going to see a bit more of a Northerly component in the direction of the storm as mini-Matthew to his east rotates around the northerly semicircle.
1100. VR46L
There has been a shift west in the cone ......NHC 's Track Forecast History of Matthew

if it moves anymore west big PROBLEMS for the US
000
WTNT34 KNHC 302049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwestern coast
of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 71.6 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this
tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be
near Jamaica on Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is
possible tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible
Saturday and Sunday. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
wow 140mph
Didn't like that last wording from the NHC :(
1104. IDTH

1105. bwi
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 20:36:13Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°32'N 71°32'W (13.5333N 71.5333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 354 statute miles (569 km) to the S (172°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 117kts (From the SE at ~ 134.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 948mb (28.00 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,150m (7,054ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,477m (8,127ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 20:45:32Z
1106. Grothar
Quoting 993. JrWeathermanFL:

I don't appreciate the blog eating my comments


I know how you feel. I just did a whole blog exactly where Matthew is going and it's gone. I'm so mad. I won't do another one
Quoting 1041. Ed22:

Maybe Matthew skip Cat 4 and go straight to Cat 5, possibility is their.

Yep, I'm not surprised after I saw Matthew this morning he's already at Cat 3. This morning just before 7 AM I actually predicted on my blog post it would be aiming for cat 5 and that's what it still looks like.

If this is cat 5...this will be my first cat 5 in the Atlantic since I started blogging on here in 2009. I guess in a way a cat 5 in the Atlantic is overdue.
Dropsonde with 99kt surface winds and 145kts at 925mb - Link
Powerfull storm in the deep tropics. I repeat, in the deep tropics.
1110. IDTH
Anyone remember the EAS test a few days ago?

I'm starting to think that was a sign (not literally).
Looks like a race btwn the low pressure system and matthew on when the turn will happen. Looks like south florida out of the woods right?
Literally every local news station is covering Matthew here in South FL
Quoting 1053. CybrTeddy:

Blog's struggling to keep up with the amount of people commenting right now.


Yeah I wonder if someone unplugged the ole' Tandy 286sx pc down in the basement or what?
Quoting 1051. StormJunkie:



Sort of, yes. I imagine everyone "feels" a little differently when watching something this rare and amazing.

Rare for sure .... a cat. 4 in the caribbean is rare enough ... but in the eastern caribbean! Wilma exploded ... all conditions said it would ... matthew exploded ... conditions said it wouldnt .... blog goes nuts :)
Eye clearing out more and more convection blowing up around the eye wall, it's still intensifying, a Cat 5 is possible by tonight first in 9 years if so to end the streak.
1116. BCastro
Hurricane Matthew is the strongest hurricane in the Caribbean since Hurricane Paloma in November 2008. Overachiever.
1117. Drakoen
Quoting 1064. StormJunkie:



I'm guessing the TWC wasn't prepared for what happens to this blog when something Mathew comes along. There should be a contingency plan to immediately implement more server bandwidth...


This has been a problem for many years with no resolution.
Jamaica news said no intensification was expected for the next 48 hours (oops).

Link

""Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours."
Two to four inches (five to 10 centimetres) of rain are expected over Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire and parts of the Venezuelan and Colombian coasts through Saturday.
Life-threatening swells and riptides could also endanger the coastlines of these areas, along with Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic in the next two days"
Quoting 1036. kmanislander:



My point simply is that more often than not the intensity forecasts are materially below what actually comes to pass. The central and NW Caribbean always seems to have " the right stuff " for storms to bomb out as you say.

The 5% to 80% book ends that you postulate do not, I believe, represent the actual statistics one way or another. In any event, this is yet another example of an intensity forecast that is materially off.


I agree with you. I understand intensity is more difficult to forecast but why did they (nhc) continue to show that it would not strengthen over the next day when the storm continued to undergo RI?

IMO they should forecast intensity and show a range of the expected storm intensity. For example at "24 hrs- 80 to 85kts"
New steering layer

Quoting 1065. gulfbreeze:

I am going to be in York Town Va. Oct. 6-10. So I am a little more interested in Matthew never been in a Hurricane anywhere but the Pensacola area. I just looked at all 20 GFS ensembles for 168 to 180 hrs out 5 said Out to sea 4 hug the coast and 11 puts it inland anywhere from Jax. Fl. to Maine.


It's Yorktown. :)
Quoting 1057. mfcmom:

I have what you all might consider to be an irrelevant question. If the storm got much stronger, what is the possibility of it pushing through the steering issues and moving further west? Thank you in advance.


The storm is strong, but the atmosphere is stronger. In all my years watching hurricanes, I've never seen one plow through entrenched steering currents.
1123. jonelu
Its a CAT 4 now...but they are saying it will be CAT 3 as it approaches near Jamaice...lets see if that verifies
Matthew looks like a monster
1125. ackee
Jamaica I am doing everything prepared me and my family your prayers Jamaica cannot deal with a cat 4 of that nature
My comments are showing up 15-20 minutes after I post them
We now have a CAT 4!
Quoting 1071. pipelines:



It's the end times, might as well give me all your earthly possessions ;)


Is it a coincidence or is it fate? Thats a good question indeed....
Only a strong ridge to the north would cause something to strengthen like this. I always go back to Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina and how they strengthen under the ridge.

I know there are many on here living in the Caribbean who have always wanted to experience a hurricane. Hurricane Matthew is NOT the kind of storm you want to experience. If you are told to evacuate, do it IMMEDIATELY. Please just listen to public officials and follow any evacuation orders. Stay safe - my thoughts and prayers go out to all in the path of the storm.
Quoting 1043. thetwilightzone:

i bet the NHC is going YAWN i give up you win


Word on the street is that Matthews name has been changed to Typhoon Taz to better reflect reality. He's an ornery burger...



It's going to be bad for multiple places as Mathew goes about where to wreck havoc. I do hope everyone who is threaten by this storms prepares for it as if it is the one in a lifetime storm...

Now is the time to prepare. Remember storms expand in coverage as they zoom north and gain latitude. Wind field will only expand outward and cover larger and larger areas.

Quoting 1074. MiamiHurricanes09:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

Out until the blog decides to speed up a little. Should be back by the time the next Recon is wheels up lol.


Not sure if it is wheels up yet, but it is at least on the tarmac.
Quoting 875. barbamz:


If my memory got this right the acronym of Nrt ... is: "Never in the eyewall of Rita again".
But maybe I got it mixed up with "RitaEvac" ;-)


Northern Eyewall Never Again - Andrew
1135. pingon
Hurricane watches for all Jamaica. Thank you!

Quoting 1037. Sfloridacat5:

Blog test - 4:41 pm
5:11pm edt
Now comes the "fly in the ointment". The latest Euro stalls Matthew out in the Bahamas for 4 days. (This is a week from Monday) GFS shows a more reasonable track which takes it up the Eastern seaboard. Stay tuned. Rule #7
Hello all from Fort Lauderdale! I am new here and have been learning a lot - so interesting!! So here is the question - based on the various iterations of the models - who thinks this will make landfall in south florida and why? Percentage?
1139. 900MB
Quoting 1055. DeepSeaRising:

Matthew is outperforming what should be his peak intensity for conditions. That's insane, He shouldn't be able to get this strong conditionally right now. Conditions would suggest top end 900-910mb with winds close to 190mph down the road. Matthew is outperforming what should be his peak right now. He could also outperform what should be his peak conditionally towards Jamaica. We could see a sub 900mb storm with winds sustained around 200mph if this RI trend continues. No reason to believe it won't at this point. Trending to 155 mph storm by tonight, and 175-185 mph storm by this time tomorrow IF RI trend continues.


900mb, that's my name. Add that to black moon, the 40x stuff. It all adds up.

Seriously though. Wow. Just wow.
AF303 enroute to Matthew.
Quoting 1080. barbamz:


It was said earlier (SJ? Nrt?) that this is supposed to be a research flight, so unusual flight patterns might be chosen.


nrti said it. But I'm wondering if it was hurricane research, or air-frame structural integrity research.
Getting unnverved - going to get supplies tonight --- with the Jewish holidays on mon/tues I know target and the stores will be a mess if Matthew comes any closer!!
Quoting 1057. mfcmom:

I have what you all might consider to be an irrelevant question. If the storm got much stronger, what is the possibility of it pushing through the steering issues and moving further west? Thank you in advance.

Stronger storm will actually want to tend northward ... the fact Matthew is "Bombing out" and still moving SW is a first for me
HurricaneTracker App
‏@hurrtrackerapp
Maniac #Matthew out there today. First Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in Sept in 5 years!
I'm w/others, including Ryan Maue, in thinking possible cat 5, since this level of RI, OHC and outflow can overcome negatives of wind shear.

Quoting 1086. stormpetrol:

Starting to feel very uneasy regarding Matthew, just don't see that hard right turn!
I agree.
Next recon plane on the way shortly:

NHC topping Matthew off at 145mph is nuts. RI trend has been on the upswing of RI not downside. Don't get it. Matthew could be a 170 mph category five by tomorrow morning.
See all of you on Monday morning as this massive hurricane is on approach to Jamaica.................................... :(


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

1150. VR46L
Quoting 1097. ArmyTomFL:

Test @1657


LOL appears to be 16 /17 minutes behind now ......
CAT 4, Yikes. I don't understand the weakening later on, Matthew did this in 20-25kts of shear.

1. It will gain latitude which will further enhance spin
2. Shear is "supposed" to drop below 10kts
3. TCHP is only going to Increase, pretty significantly on it's trek north

Quoting 1086. stormpetrol:

Starting to feel very uneasy regarding Matthew, just don't see that hard right turn!

I agree ... especially now at this strength ... its just begging to make a gradual turn around jamaica
Look at all that new intense convection in the eye wall:



A sign that it's still continuing to rapidly strengthen.
Oh my.....

Euro stalls it out for about 4 days in Bahamas
Yall this is what Earl wouldve been if it had another 24 hours over water
Quoting 738. ncstorm:

Euro showing over 57 inches of rain for the bahamas..








Baha should start on that ark.
1158. hahaguy
Quoting 1112. Camerooski:

Literally every local news station is covering Matthew here in South FL


Most of the Mets are blowing it off somewhat.
Last frame just wow...

Quoting 1109. CaribBoy:

Powerfull storm in the deep tropics. I repeat, in the deep tropics.


I know right? I can't even see the eye from my usual High Res Rapid Scan source: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.ht ml

She's deep down there.
Quoting 1113. weatherxtreme:



Yeah I wonder if someone unplugged the ole' Tandy 286sx pc down in the basement or what?

Commodore 64 maybe :)
1162. Tcwx2
Where is the kid? I know we always use this as a funny term, but his situation will get serious in the next few days. I hope for the best for him.
1163. JLPR2
Well fudge... a cat 4, I wasn't expecting that.
I really hope it weakens considerably when it moves closer to land.

Quoting 1100. VR46L:

There has been a shift west in the cone ......NHC 's Track Forecast History of Matthew

if it moves anymore west big PROBLEMS for the US

Give it a day or two ... i got a bad feeling it will
the performance of this site is a huge disappointment
1166. Ed22
Quoting 978. CybrTeddy:

O.o

947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)
A cat 4 or 5 is definitely on, with Matthew rapidly intensifying it isn't out the question could reach Cat 5.
1167. apm2084
Quoting 1112. Camerooski:

Literally every local news station is covering Matthew here in South FL


Florida is definitely not out of the woods this far out, especially considering the consistent shift west. I'm worried here on the space coast and am hoping the GDFL does not pan out.
1168. Shimano
This hurricane is so freakin amazing to watch.
1169. Greg01
Quoting 1120. kmanislander:

New steering layer




Looks like that hard turn to the north will be softer...
1170. beell
Quoting 1006. 1900hurricane:

I wonder why recon decided to use this flight pattern. Perhaps it has to do with the other flight sampling the periphery at the same time? Regardless, I'm absolutely loving the high density wind data from the eyewall.




To drop the perfectly modeled vortex in the models-aside from the research aspect?
Quoting 1100. VR46L:

There has been a shift west in the cone ......NHC 's Track Forecast History of Matthew

if it moves anymore west big PROBLEMS for the US


The NHC end path for Matthew has been due north for the last 4 updates in a row (no change to the east or west for the center of the end track)
Quoting 1120. kmanislander:

New steering layer




What are your thoughts? looks like the high is holding doesnt it not?
Quoting 1118. JNFlori30A:

BLOGCRASH!

Thats what happens when Doc says there will be a new blog post "late this afternoon" lol epic blogcrash for sure
1125. ackee
Praying for you
18z GFS initialized @ 978mb. That's cute...



Blog post test @ 5:26.
Steve Gregory has a great steering graphic in his blog.
Quoting 1133. StormJunkie:



Not sure if it is wheels up yet, but it is at least on the tarmac.

New recon plane just took off you can track it here
Link
Pretty impressive blowup going on right now. Intensification is likely continuing.



AF303 Mission #9 into MATTHEW wheels up!


all I did was leave my computer for a few hours and BAM! Matthew is unbelievable!
New recon underway
1182. Ed22
Quoting 1107. NCHurricane2009:


Yep, I'm not surprised after I saw Matthew this morning he's already at Cat 3. This morning just before 7 AM I actually predicted on my blog post it would be aiming for cat 5 and that's what it still looks like.

If this is cat 5...this will be my first cat 5 in the Atlantic since I started blogging on here in 2009. I guess in a way a cat 5 in the Atlantic is overdue.
Me too i started blogging in 2013.
Intense, symmetric Cat 4...

Quoting 1134. nrtiwlnvragn:



Northern Eyewall Never Again - Andrew


Were you in Homestead? My dad was down there with a crew from the Town of Summerville. Lending aid since we had just been through it a couple years prior. Believe he helped get Tent City up and running.
Going to start preparing, it's going to turn into mayhem here in S Florida if something changes. Everyone waiting for definitive answers. If the answers are not good you are going to have everyone preparing at the same time. Storms are stressful enough without dealing with chaos of trying to obtain supplies and fuel. If nothing happens then I'll use what I purchased and be thankful, plus it always seems to be every time I prepare and have everything I need the storms go elsewhere.


Next hurricane hunter aircraft en route. Also I successfully predicted that Matthew would become a category four hurricane by 5pm today, now I am predicting that he will become a five at 5am the latest.
Quoting 1144. bigwes6844:

HurricaneTracker App
‏@hurrtrackerapp
Maniac #Matthew out there today. First Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in Sept in 5 years!



Hurricane Joaquin last year was a Cat 4 and nearly made it to Cat 5.
Quoting 1146. stormwatcherCI:

I agree.


Matthew wobbled level on the last fix but that may just be a blip. If WSW is continuing then the track may change some but for now there would have to be some significant occurrence, such as a stall that allowed the high to build back in, for it to come here.
Why the gfs show matthew as a ts?
1192. Walshy
Quoting 1151. ProgressivePulse:

CAT 4, Yikes. I don't understand the weakening later on, Matthew did this in 20-25kts of shear.

1. It will gain latitude which will further enhance spin
2. Shear is "supposed" to drop below 10kts
3. TCHP is only going to Increase, pretty significantly on it's trek north



ewrc cycle weakening, running into land, nearby mountains it doesn't hit, dry air from land, many things forecasting shear is like forecasting RI too
I think we all had the idea that Matthew would succeed as being the strongest this season, the conditions were there for it, I can't believe 25 knot wind shear is not impacting this cyclone's inner core, you would think shear like that would win out, but the power of a hurricane cannot be underestimated.
Shot of Matthew from Aruba (on Instagram)
Quoting 1164. hurricaneryan87:


Give it a day or two ... i got a bad feeling it will


Yes a few days ago it was already supposed to be making this turn by now but since it hasn't....
Quoting 1141. StormJunkie:



nrti said it. But I'm wondering if it was hurricane research, or air-frame structural integrity research.


Miss Piggy did get new wings last year
Quoting 1165. Hester122:

the performance of this site is a huge disappointment


It has not seen this kind of activity since Hurricane Ike. TWC may not have completely understood the roll this blog plays when there is a major that has all of Fl and much of the E coast still "at risk".
which model has been performing the best so far with this storm?
How many storms lose latitude while under RI?
1200. apm2084
Why is the 18z GFS initializing at 978 mb at full res??
This is definitely run, not hide mode. Last chance to find safer ground for many. Southern Haiti is already getting bands and is likely to be in flood by the morning.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

Danggit! Just when I thought that I might be out of the woods here in Central Florida. The NHC pulls me back in.
Dangerous Hurricane Matthew is experiencing oscillating wobbles due to the large convective bursts occurring inside the eyewall. These bursts are now expanding the eastern eye wall a bit. this signifies a further drop in pressure and a continuance in rapid strengthening.
1204. HiWay58
Quoting 1144. bigwes6844:

HurricaneTracker App
‏@hurrtrackerapp
Maniac #Matthew out there today. First Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in Sept in 5 years!



Take this picture and look side by side with ealier today and yesterday. Tell me you don't just go WTF HAPPENED HERE!?
Quoting 1142. LawBoy80:

Getting unnverved - going to get supplies tonight --- with the Jewish holidays on mon/tues I know target and the stores will be a mess if Matthew comes any closer!!



Where are you located
Can someone reply to an important question of mine purty please? Do you think that this will bring rain to the Clearwater area? I don't want to have to shop vac water out of my house again. I know that we will not get winds, but I pray that we don't get a lot of rain..actually pretty rain would be awesome.. my heart goes out to those in Jamaica. Very scary!
"Tuesday Night- Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78."

From the Miami Beach 7 day forecast per the NWS. Interesting.
Quoting 1171. Sfloridacat5:



The NHC end path for Matthew has been due north for the last 4 updates in a row (no change to the east or west for the center of the end track)


Yes, I eyeballed it closely and the big change from 2 p.m. (other than RI) is that there is now a point for 2 p.m. Wednesday which is south of the point for 8 a.m. Wednesday given at the 2 p.m. update. This would indicate an overall slowing of about 10% to that point. No movement west or east.
1209. Patrap
Click image for loop




🎑🌊🌎🌛
Quoting 1144. bigwes6844:

HurricaneTracker App
‏@hurrtrackerapp
Maniac #Matthew out there today. First Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in Sept in 5 years!


Matthew making up for those sheared messes we've grown used to the past few seasons. Out of curiosity what do you guys think Matthews peak winds will be?
1211. apm2084
Quoting 1167. apm2084:



Florida is definitely not out of the woods this far out, especially considering the consistent shift west. I'm worried here on the space coast and am hoping the GDFL does not pan out.


Woops wrong quote haha. Mets are getting their 15 minutes with this one.
Where is TTZ?


As of 5pm. Beast mode.

iss just flew over matthew, looking good!



1215. towlady
If the models used Cat 2 intensity for their calculations, and Matthew is a Cat 4 or Cat 5, does anyone know if there is a history of
how much the difference can alter the projected track?
GFS initialized at 978mb ummmm no, models cant be trusted with intensity and that can make a difference in track a storm this strong can create its own environment like more ridging to the north, track is still uncertain after 48 hours I believe.
1217. CW7859
Quoting 1106. Grothar:



I know how you feel. I just did a whole blog exactly where Matthew is going and it's gone. I'm so mad. I won't do another one


Noooooo!! Gro can you give a quick recap? I.e if you live here I'd be looking at this seriously?

Should I make a run to WallyWorld and stock up on Cafe Bustelo?? :)
1218. cabice
More NHC doubting truth era out there I see. They know what they are doing !
1219. IDTH
Quoting 1190. kmanislander:



Matthew wobbled level on the last fix but that may just be a blip. If WSW is continuing then the track may change some but for now there would have to be some significant occurrence, such as a stall that allowed the high to build back in, for it to come here.

Strong intensifying storms tend to do that.
Quoting 1188. MrTornadochase:


Maybe he's "pumping/will pump the ridge"if im using the term right


There is NO right way to use the term. It's not a thing. ;-)

18z GFS is a hair slower than 12z, but mostly unchanged.
I am just going to pull a Climate175 and plus everything tonight! It is all so amazing to unfold. Scary, but amazing nonetheless.
Quoting 1171. Sfloridacat5:



The NHC end path for Matthew has been due north for the last 4 updates in a row (no change to the east or west for the center of the end track)
Quoting 1171. Sfloridacat5:



The NHC end path for Matthew has been due north for the last 4 updates in a row (no change to the east or west for the center of the end track)

It has shifted slightly west the past update but not much.
1223. nash36
Quoting 1172. chrisdscane:



What are your thoughts? looks like the high is holding doesnt it not?


It's slowing down. That indicates it's nearing the periphery of the ridge. That TROF will erode the ridge.
Quoting 1184. StormJunkie:



Were you in Homestead? My dad was down there with a crew from the Town of Summerville. Lending aid since we had just been through it a couple years prior. Believe he helped get Tent City up and running.


Further north, towards Cutler Ridge. Close to the SW 184 on this image


LIkes 255...
1226. CW7859
Quoting 1191. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Why the gfs show matthew as a ts?
">


Full res initialized at 978, but even that is way off...

1227. apm2084
I haven't seen this site linked here in a while...Link

Great site that interprets the raw recon data for you.
Quoting 1190. kmanislander:



Matthew wobbled level on the last fix but that may just be a blip. If WSW is continuing then the track may change some but for now there would have to be some significant occurrence, such as a stall that allowed the high to build back in, for it to come here.

I just noticed that ... had to look a few times cause the frame switched to ir ... but def an almost due west trend for the last hour or two ... with ri present its probably a wobble
Quoting 1172. chrisdscane:



What are your thoughts? looks like the high is holding doesnt it not?


Trough retrograding some and Atlantic high nosing to the west and undercutting a ULL near 32N and 67 west. A very complicated pattern with another high over Mexico pushing east. All a matter of timing it seems. Steering should soon weaken.

Quoting 1196. nrtiwlnvragn:



Miss Piggy did get new wings last year


And this storm is most likely providing some air-frame structural integrety research...
Quoting 1188. MrTornadochase:


Maybe he's "pumping/will pump the ridge"if im using the term right


You're using it perfectly.
Quoting 1193. TheDawnAwakening:

I think we all had the idea that Matthew would succeed as being the strongest this season, the conditions were there for it, I can't believe 25 knot wind shear is not impacting this cyclone's inner core, you would think shear like that would win out, but the power of a hurricane cannot be underestimated.

Upper level anticyclone and outflow from intense convection has been offsetting shear for most of Matthew's life.
Isn't it clear, Matthew should become a category five hurricane by early tomorrow morning.
1234. VR46L
Quoting 1171. Sfloridacat5:



The NHC end path for Matthew has been due north for the last 4 updates in a row (no change to the east or west for the center of the end track)


I just think Counting Florida out of danger is foolhardy .... and do you not thing a jog west to Jamaica as a landfall will effect its position in relation to South Florida ?

just a neutral observer ... usually a downcaster but not with this one !
1235. 7544
Quoting 1083. chrisdscane:

5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 13.5°N 71.6°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph


wow wow still moving wsw could be a cat 5 soon
1236. nash36
Quoting 1200. apm2084:

Why is the 18z GFS initializing at 978 mb at full res??


Kind of makes this run a tad useless. 30MB off in strength. Oops.
1237. IDTH
Quoting 1198. pocoehonda:

which model has been performing the best so far with this storm?

I'd say track wise, the Euro has illustrated the SW movement the best. Intensity wise, the GFDL has been pretty darn accurate.
I'm going to guess sub 940 in the next few hours. I'm sure we will be shocked how pressures just continue to drop when the new recon gets in, this is incredible organization and intensification. I'm praying this weakens before land..
Quoting 1199. floridaT:

How many storms lose latitude while under RI?

Joaquin last year was moving SW when he was undergoing RI
Quoting 1199. floridaT:

How many storms lose latitude while under RI?
That High Pressure has GOT to be strong as hell
The Seven Seas Cruising Association’s high frequency radio station, call sign “KPK” will be on the air daily at 0815 hours Eastern time on frequency 8.104 to assist any vessel with our land based resources. All vessels are welcome to utilize this free service that broadcasts a strong signal from Nova Scotia to South America. During this hurricane, I will pay particular attention to the affected area, especially Jamaica, Cuba, the Turks & Caicos, and of course the Bahamas.

Also, the Waterway Radio & Cruising Club net is on daily at 0745 hrs Eastern time on ham frequency 7.268 broadcasting weather information and taking position reports from vessels.

Remember, in an emergency, anyone with a radio may transmit on any frequency, regardless of licenses, or lack thereof.

High Frequency radio has saved countless lives during maritime emergencies. Let’s all hope and pray for the best, but prepare for the worst as this powerfull storm heads our way.
1242. Patrap

Click image for loop

1243. centex


A Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.

Source WIKi

Quoting 1206. connie1976:

Can someone reply to an important question of mine purty please? Do you think that this will bring rain to the Clearwater area? I don't want to have to shop vac water out of my house again. I know that we will not get winds, but I pray that we don't get a lot of rain..actually pretty rain would be awesome.. my heart goes out to those in Jamaica. Very scary!
Unless there is a considerable shift west and it makes landfall in S FL, I don't see it. This is mainly a SE FL issue
1245. Patrap


🎑🌊🌎
1246. VR46L
Quoting 1191. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Why the gfs show matthew as a ts?



LOL !!!

That says it all !!!!
CAT 5 by 11pm?
Quoting 1191. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Why the gfs show matthew as a ts?


Full resolution has Mat at 978 but still way off
Quoting 1189. Articuno:



Hurricane Joaquin last year was a Cat 4 and nearly made it to Cat 5.
Joaquin was October dude.
Quoting 1197. StormJunkie:



It has not seen this kind of activity since Hurricane Ike. TWC may not have completely understood the roll this blog plays when there is a major that has all of Fl and much of the E coast still "at risk".


It isn't owned by TWC...it's owned by IBM..
Some minor difference in things upstream from the 12z GFS to the 18zGFS. Not liking them in regards to the E coast. Granted, it will be 30 minutes later by time anyone sees this and you'll know by then what this run of the GFS looks like.
Quoting 1180. hurricanehanna:



all I did was leave my computer for a few hours and BAM! Matthew is unbelievable!


Wow - look at the persistence of the convection to the east and southeast. Matt is maintaining a large structure and more convection might fill in other quadrants as his direction, shear, etc change.
Quoting 1206. connie1976:

Can someone reply to an important question of mine purty please? Do you think that this will bring rain to the Clearwater area? I don't want to have to shop vac water out of my house again. I know that we will not get winds, but I pray that we don't get a lot of rain..actually pretty rain would be awesome.. my heart goes out to those in Jamaica. Very scary!
If the current nhc track verifies, is expect the west of coast will get get a few rusty seabreeze like thunderstorms coming in the from the east as it passes. Then expect cool fall weather conditions late next week
Quoting 1206. connie1976:

Can someone reply to an important question of mine purty please? Do you think that this will bring rain to the Clearwater area? I don't want to have to shop vac water out of my house again. I know that we will not get winds, but I pray that we don't get a lot of rain..actually pretty rain would be awesome.. my heart goes out to those in Jamaica. Very scary!


Too early to tell, if any part of Florida gets hit it's likely the E coast.

The forecast for each advisory is ever so slowly moving west though.

Most likely you'll get some rain but nothing too severe. Pay very close attention though.
1255. ProPoly
Quoting 1201. LesBonsTemps:

This is definitely run, not hide mode. Last chance to find safer ground for many. Southern Haiti is already getting bands and is likely to be in flood by the morning.


No one who has a choice should even CONSIDER riding a storm like this out. If you're on the coast, that surge will kill you. Even if you're not this windfield is large and strong enough to throw things that will demolish your house, if not just demolish and throw your house with just the wind.

If warned, get the hell out.
Matthew has continued to intensify since last update. We may already be looking at Matthew approach Category five strength. RI continues for another day and we may be looking at satellite presentation we've never seen before except with Haiyan.
Quoting 1184. StormJunkie:



Were you in Homestead? My dad was down there with a crew from the Town of Summerville. Lending aid since we had just been through it a couple years prior. Believe he helped get Tent City up and running.


Was in the northern eye wall of Charley. Won't repeat that mistake again.. Somehow I ended up over here on the East Coast of FL..
1258. Walshy
12z GFS develops a tropical storm in the Caribbean out in the long range

Quoting 1220. StormJunkie:



There is NO right way to use the term. It's not a thing. ;-)

18z GFS is a hair slower than 12z, but mostly unchanged.


Yes....you mean....HUMP the ridge....
Hurricanes this intense have been known to pump the heights up to the north of their circulations due to their massive poleward outflow channels diverting the air to the north, this allows high pressure to build in to the north of it.
I wonder if Matthew is getting strong enough or will get strong enough to make its own path to a certain extent? Floyd did that around 1999, was going west and was supposed to turn north near the Bahamas at about the 75 degree longitude mark but was so strong that it kept going to about 77.5 degrees or so west before turning north. It essentially pumped up the ridge as it went along. There was a very strong trough over and just west of Florida at that time.
Beautiful satellite presentation. Let's see what Recon finds. Wouldn't be surprised to see this thing as a high-end cat 4 before long.

I also see that the blog is just as slow as the last time I was here lol.
Quoting 1219. IDTH:


Strong intensifying storms tend to do that.


Yes. It started wobbling some time back which is why I do not think it necessarily means a leveling off of latitude.
They do know what they are doing, but this is a very difficult forecast past 48 hours. I do not envy the pros. Thank goodness we have them.

Quoting 1218. cabice:

More NHC doubting truth era out there I see. They know what they are doing !

Leave to a better one.

Quoting 1165. Hester122:

the performance of this site is a huge disappointment
1197. StormJunkie
Looks like this site is twc's unwanted stepchild
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
449 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast will be very active through the period, with multiple
weather concerns for South Florida. The pattern over the eastern
US has a 500mb cutoff low sitting over the midwest, and a trough
over the Gulf. There is also a 500mb ridge over the western
Atlantic. The ridge will be the influence for the flow over South
Florida this weekend, generally keeping a light wind out of the
east. Temps at 500mb are forecast to continue to be around -8.5C
to -9C over the region. This, and the trough to the west, will
help to cause showers thunderstorm to develop each day, with
little movement. The conditions are favorable for some strong, to
possibly even a few severe storms, through the weekend.

By Sunday, the cutoff will slide over the Great Lakes region. and
the high will slightly weaken. This weakening is what should allow
Hurricane Matthew to take its sharp northerly turn. The current
track keeps Matthew to our east. However, the track is still
highly uncertain that far out and it could be much closer, or even
further away from the mainland. Either way, it is forecast to
bring hazardous marine conditions to the Atlantic waters next
week. The models also differ quite a bit on timing, with the GFS
being quicker, and the ECMWF being much slower with the system.
The current official track puts the system north of 25N by
Wednesday morning. But again, There is a lot of uncertainty and
the position could end up being very different next week.
1268. MZT
Quoting 1223. nash36:



It's slowing down. That indicates it's nearing the periphery of the ridge. That TROF will erode the ridge.

Even big storms get steered by TROFs. Wilma quickly responded to one, that took her NE away from Cozumel.
Cat 4!!!
Quoting 1220. StormJunkie:



There is NO right way to use the term. It's not a thing. ;-)

18z GFS is a hair slower than 12z, but mostly unchanged.

I know its not an official NHC term or anythting but I've heard a few on this blog use it.
I would say max intensity could be anywhere between 175-180mph winds, and a pressure of 900-910mb.
Quoting 1232. MrTornadochase:


Upper level anticyclone and outflow from intense convection has been offsetting shear for most of Matthew's life.


That is why I said that
Watch the progression of the 2nd trough to see if it will be strong enough to steer it OTS or if weaker a push back into the coast.
Wow...

Quoting 1221. SecretStormNerd:

I am just going to pull a Climate175 and plus everything tonight! It is all so amazing to unfold. Scary, but amazing nonetheless.

You are the best! Keep up the good work!
1276. HarryMc
Quoting 1210. MrTornadochase:


Matthew making up for those sheared messes we've grown used to the past few seasons. Out of curiosity what do you guys think Matthews peak winds will be?

Upper 140's to low 150's. Probably not quite Cat 5 before mingling with land friction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8flDlixo4KA
1278. VR46L
Quoting 1233. TheDawnAwakening:

Isn't it clear, Matthew should become a category five hurricane by early tomorrow morning.


I doubt it

1279. IDTH
102 hours

1280. Patrap


🌊🌎🎑
Quoting 1220. StormJunkie:



There is NO right way to use the term. It's not a thing. ;-)

18z GFS is a hair slower than 12z, but mostly unchanged.

I know its not an official NHC term or anythting but I've heard a few on this blog use it.
Quoting 1143. hurricaneryan87:


Stronger storm will actually want to tend northward ... the fact Matthew is "Bombing out" and still moving SW is a first for me
Kmanislander just posted a steering map that may clarify things somewhat.
I like this page because they don't jump around with the wind. I am not liking that bend back west in the ensembles now.

Soon the Buzz Saw look?
Quoting 1214. earthisanocean:

iss just flew over matthew, looking good!





That second shot shows what is happening. The bulge of storms leading to the eye is impressive, shows incredibly fast building convection. Building faster than the storm can expand its environmental influence so the thunderstorms near and around the center are forced to build skyward. I believe that is what is causing the incredible strengthening.

1286. IDTH

I do not understand the difference in terminology/forecasts - i.e., "Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line]" , "operational (deterministic) versions", as shown by the red lines among the spaghetti model runs tracks. Could someone explain? Thanks muchly!
Accuweather seems to be very confused at the moment. They say Matthew will be downgraded to a Cat 3, yet an image a paragraph lower it says it's supposed to strengthen.


My prediction recurve west into New England.

NHC are the best the world has to offer. Matthew has done what was almost impossible to predict. Everything moving forward intensity wise is impossible to predict with accuracy. My projections of last night were from trend following of RI happening. RI has increased since yesterday, even with RI leveling off soon; Matthew almost guaranteed makes at least 160mph by tonight. If we're lucky. How insane would it be if the one model that called for a 898mb hurricane by Jamaica a week ago happens?
Quoting 1244. Camerooski:

Unless there is a considerable shift west and it makes landfall in S FL, I don't see it. This is mainly a SE FL issue

Too soon to tell if it hits SE FL the whole state will probably have effects and the 18z GFS NW towards FL at 108 hours uh oh
Some day people will understand the resolution of the GFS and the resolution of images from various websites.
Quoting 1229. kmanislander:



Trough retrograding some and Atlantic high nosing to the west and undercutting a ULL near 32N and 67 west. A very complicated pattern with another high over Mexico pushing east. All a matter of timing it seems. Steering should soon weaken.



I not focusing too much on the models. They have struggled a lot with this storm in the long range. If the Storm does erode the western periphery it would not do so until it directly south of Jamaica. Just my two cents
Quoting 1251. StormJunkie:

Some minor difference in things upstream from the 12z GFS to the 18zGFS. Not liking them in regards to the E coast. Granted, it will be 30 minutes later by time anyone sees this and you'll know by then what this run of the GFS looks like.


Im reading you. Thanks!
Quoting 1249. HurricaneAndre:

Joaquin was October dude.

October is tomorrow ... dude ;)
1296. Walshy
Quoting 1249. HurricaneAndre:

Joaquin was October dude.

leap year dude
I don't expect the NHC and their forecast of weakening to come true unfortunately, maybe slight but the environment is only going to get more favorable. I can already see how devastating this will be :(
andrew..florida.t....wsw
18z GFS continues to trend west after crossing over Cuba. The East Coast of Florida is certainly in play here.
How do you get out if you live on an island like Jamaica?


Quoting 1255. ProPoly:



No one who has a choice should even CONSIDER riding a storm like this out. If you're on the coast, that surge will kill you. Even if you're not this windfield is large and strong enough to throw things that will demolish your house, if not just demolish and throw your house with just the wind.

If warned, get the hell out.
Ryan Maue‏ @RyanMaue
As eye continues to clear, Hurricane Matthew has satellite apparence of almost Category 5. Waiting on recon & surf pressure. Current Cat 4
Latest satellite image of Matthew shows a hot tower developing, perhaps cloud tops to -80C or -90C.
18z GFS is a degree and a half to the west compared to the 12z GFS for what its worth.
1304. IDTH
114

1305. IKE
Quoting 1260. TheDawnAwakening:

Hurricanes this intense have been known to pump the heights up to the north of their circulations due to their massive poleward outflow channels diverting the air to the north, this allows high pressure to build in to the north of it.

Pump the ridge?
1306. hmroe
Quoting 1249. HurricaneAndre:

Joaquin was October dude.


Ya, and tomorrow is Oct. Still, what does that have to do with LAT and RI?
1307. IDTH
The GFS at 126 hours traps Matthew



18Z GFS very close to Florida
The 12Z Euro's long term path looks like a drunk sailor trying to walk. It will be interesting to see how the 00Z Euro turns out.
1310. Drakoen
GFS continues to slow down and trend west.
I expect this storm to hit category 5 Status in the next couple hours. Cayman should see breezy to windy conditions on Monday but the worst hopefully stays east of us. Jamaica and Cuba may be dealing with a category 5 landfall, and the Bahamas will likely have a category 4 at least. A large chunk of SE FL especially near the coast should have tropical storm conditions by Tuesday, but any large further west shifts could bring hurricane conditions to SE FL and the FL peninsula.
BIG SHIFT WEST 18zGFS
GFS close to Florida in 5 days
1314. nash36
18z is even further W through 126hrs.

Quoting 1262. MiamiHurricanes09:

Beautiful satellite presentation. Let's see what Recon finds. Wouldn't be surprised to see this thing as a high-end cat 4 before long.

I also see that the blog is just as slow as the last time I was here lol.


Slow as in site capability? Yes. Slow as in comments? No. 7 hours of this blog and already 1300 comments. Pretty good clip and Florida just on the edge of the doom cone.
What is the baby blob to the east of Matthew?

Quoting 1253. FLWeatherFreak91:

If the current nhc track verifies, is expect the west of coast will get get a few rusty seabreeze like thunderstorms coming in the from the east as it passes. Then expect cool fall weather conditions late next week

Thank you!!! I'm excited about the fall weather too!!
GFS 18z borked the initial intensity, but this steering pattern is bad, bad, bad. Matthew gets trapped.

I think if we refrain from posting loops and animated items for the time being it may help things. Just post images. People in near harms way are probably checking in regularly for updates.
1320. nash36
Pretty good ridging in this run to the N of Matthew.
Quoting 1249. HurricaneAndre:

Joaquin was October dude.


I read it wrong.

Quoting 1223. nash36:



It's slowing down. That indicates it's nearing the periphery of the ridge. That TROF will erode the ridge.
The trough is already weakening and backing to the North, this storm is too far South to feel that weak trough.
1323. 7544
126 hours gfs moves further west again ridge builds inn hmmmm
1324. LemieT
Quoting 1232. MrTornadochase:


Upper level anticyclone and outflow from intense convection has been offsetting shear for most of Matthew's life.


That was something I noticed since Matthew was a wave about midway in the Atlantic. The poleward outflow has been absolutely epic all its life.
1325. MrEvans
Geez. I live in the heart of South Beach in a 50s home WITHOUT hurricane windows. Umm...
Quoting 1270. MrTornadochase:


I know its not an official NHC term or anythting but I've heard a few on this blog use it.


It's just not a real thing though. Most of us joke around about it. Something from many years ago. The idea is that the hurricane actually "pushes" the ridge out in front of it due to the spin. But it's not real. It doesn't happen.

As I said earlier, I do not like the run to run shifts of the GFS right now in regards to the CONUS.

18z



12z

I am thinking, I guess wishfully, that this crazy RI in the face of shear is a good thing as in it will peak out down in the southern carib and then kind of "struggle" inexplicably after it turns north maybe only hitting Jamaica as a Cat 3??? Just a hunch. Thanks for all the posts you guys/gals are great!
Is it likely we will see a Category 5 now? Because wow...
Quoting 1281. MrTornadochase:


I know its not an official NHC term or anythting but I've heard a few on this blog use it.


Humping the ridge is the phrase you're after...
1330. WxLogic
Quoting 1273. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Watch the progression of the 2nd trough to see if it will be strong enough to steer it OTS or if weaker a push back into the coast.


The second TROF is negatively tilted by the time it starts having some influence on Matthew but it still has a strong ridge to the N/NE/E so can't got nowhere at this stage but we'll see what GFS will pull off this time.

Overall same track as 12GFS but a slight shift to the W for the time being.
Quoting 1278. VR46L:



I doubt it




Shear's moving in tandem with him.
1332. IDTH
The low doesn't even exist on this GFS run, that or it's completely too far west to affect Matthew. It's literally trapped.

Oh oh
1334. nash36
Wow....

138hrs...

1335. Patrap



Oh lord I don't see how the GFS goes OTS. 100 miles to the west vs last run, riding along Florida Coast hour 138
Getting too close, but still offshore - for this run anyway.
Georgia Hurricane Shield™, ENGAGE!

Why do you say it is something of a surprise that the storm intensified more than expected? Its a hurricane. These are known to be unpredictable. So now you must be feeling more surprised because its already a Cat 4 ? Please avoid the temptation to word your forecasts with too much certainty.
If the storm doesn't start to move north, as everyone is so assuredly telling us it will, will you be surprised then? Well I for one won't be, because until it actually moves a little bit north, the only things telling us that it is going to move north are computer programmes and meteorologists. Both of these are fallible. Let's wait and see if it listens to what we're telling it it should do.
Quoting 1278. VR46L:



I doubt it



It's been under that amount or even slightly more shear the entire time its been undergoing RI
Raw T# of 7.1, eye temp of +0.0C, and eye wall storm temp of -75C
GFS run is sickening. Wow.........
1343. Gearsts
1344. LemieT
That outflow channel to the north goes all the way back to 45W and is shearing the tropical wave in that area. Simply incredible. This is almost like a WPAC typhoon in terms of ourflow.
WOW!!! GFS
GFS Model Latest one 18z


Quoting 1280. Patrap:



🌊🌎🎑


How is the Mrs. doing?
1348. nash36
Ummmm....


Sorry but we have a major hurricane in the Caribbean moving towards a close call with the U.S. and the blog isn't working.
I've been forced to turn on TWC.
1350. IDTH
This is by far the worst run for the U.S by the GFS. It stalls it just right off the coast and it looks to have a path opening up to go more north.

1351. MZT
Quoting 1285. RyanSperrey: The bulge of storms leading to the eye is impressive, shows incredibly fast building convection. Building faster than the storm can expand its environmental influence so the thunderstorms near and around the center are forced to build skyward.

This storm has the insanely cold overshooting tops I associate with typhoons. Very ominous to see this in the Atlantic.
Quoting 1283. ProgressivePulse:

I like this page because they don't jump around with the wind. I am not liking that bend back west in the ensembles now.




12Z UKMET bend is not good either



Dear Lord, GFS. 907mb???

This will be changing. Don't think anything can be that accurate yet because of all the variables involved here.
1355. IDTH
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:26:48 N Lon : 71:34:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.0mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +0.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.2 degrees
1356. barbamz
"Hub cloud"? I see at the picture what it may mean but havn't ever heard that term. Anyone knowing more?




1357. Patrap

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery



🎑🌎🌊
IKE, hot tower with a convective cloud top temp of -85C
Quoting 1288. nothingtoofancy:

Accuweather seems to be very confused at the moment. They say Matthew will be downgraded to a Cat 3, yet an image a paragraph lower it says it's supposed to strengthen.





Look at the time stamps on the bottom, those explain why. The bottom one is from this morning, when he wasn't yet a major hurricane. The top one is current.
Andrew. Wilma. Charley. Jeanne. Ivan. Frances. Katrina. Matthew?
OMFG!!! If current trends in the models continue it looks like the major hurricane drought in Florida and the U.S. will be over.

Quoting 1258. Walshy:

12z GFS develops a tropical storm in the Caribbean out in the long range



Matthew the second! Also unlikely.
Quoting 1271. TheDawnAwakening:

I would say max intensity could be anywhere between 175-180mph winds, and a pressure of 900-910mb.

I think Matthew will be a 155mph or 160mph storm by 11pm. Just look at the hot towers right now around the eyewall. And you can see the stadium effect developing in the eye. Depending on his exact track (the further west, the stronger due to higher TCHP values), Matthew could potentially go sub 900mb, possibly as low or lower than Wilma. I dont say that lightly. Wilma was my first storm that I watched as a member of Wunderground 11 years ago, and I see some very similar setups. Oct storms, high TCHP, ridging, rapid intensification in an area of reducing shear.
1365. Patrap
Click image for loop

Quoting 1305. IKE:


Pump the ridge?
I thought it was hump the ridge.
Quoting 1282. BahaHurican:

Kmanislander just posted a steering map that may clarify things somewhat.


Baha, you got preps done for this? Been looking at WV imagery over the Central US and the Atlantic. Very complicated setup. And nothing is moving phenomenally fast right now. It's all a timing issue now, add in forecast error @ 5 days, and small changes in track due to interaction with land, the next 4 or 5 days will be really interesting. Glad I have a few days off to keep an eye on this.
1368. aquak9
Quoting 1310. Drakoen:
GFS continues to slow down and trend west.
oughtta be a bannable offense in my opinion

:)
18Z GFS does a perfect ride along the southeast coast
1370. IDTH
CLOSE CALL

Quoting 1307. IDTH:

The GFS at 126 hours traps Matthew





I see a possible escape route just north of Bermuda.
Quoting 1195. Mark3453:



Yes a few days ago it was already supposed to be making this turn by now but since it hasn't....
I don't think it was supposed to be making it's turn a few days ago. In fact, it is right on target so far.
1373. Grothar






Quoting 1300. thomaskerr1027:

How do you get out if you live on an island like Jamaica?





You don't get out. You engineer to withstand storms like this, you plan ahead to be able to conquer scenarios such as this. Contrary to public opinion in the US, you can build to withstand a major hurricane. Populace just must be willing to do so.
1375. Patrap
Its a software que issue,not a bandwidth one.



It's just one run....and maybe the intensity difference is enough to make him head N faster and not miss his exit opportunity. Not to mention we should have some more data going in to the 00z runs.
22 minute delay on comments...youch
Quoting 1319. ProgressivePulse:

I think if we refrain from posting loops and animated items for the time being it may help things. Just post images. People in near harms way are probably checking in regularly for updates.


Something has to change, because all the information that shows up everyone knew 30 minutes ago. It's like reading yesterday's newspaper.
But that's not good when you've got a major hurricane headed towards places where people live.
Quoting 1328. Icybubba:

Is it likely we will see a Category 5 now? Because wow...


I believe so
Quoting 1315. Astrometeor:



Slow as in site capability? Yes. Slow as in comments? No. 7 hours of this blog and already 1300 comments. Pretty good clip and Florida just on the edge of the doom cone.

When FL doom cone is in play, the blog will implode.

Latest GFS shows CAT5 very close to FL/GA
Quoting 1326. StormJunkie:



It's just not a real thing though. Most of us joke around about it. Something from many years ago. The idea is that the hurricane actually "pushes" the ridge out in front of it due to the spin. But it's not real. It doesn't happen.

As I said earlier, I do not like the run to run shifts of the GFS right now in regards to the CONUS.

18z



12z




Well we will see where Matthew goes on Sunday. The track is very uncertain. Our thoughts go to our island neighbors.
Matthew doesn't get trapped it's just further west. We will have to wait to see if this trend continues or if we see a shift back to the east on the next run?
Quoting 1332. IDTH:

The low doesn't even exist on this GFS run, that or it's completely too far west to affect Matthew. It's literally trapped.


Won't that trough to the west of that ridge pick up Matthew?
The Atlantic high has now nosed farther to the WSW to a position just north of the Cayman Islands and to the south of western Cuba. If the ridge is going to erode it, it better start doing so now. WSW looks to be continuing for a while.

Quoting 1289. wilsongti45:

My prediction recurve west into New England.




C'mon....round of applause anyone?

Quoting 1341. TheDawnAwakening:

Raw T# of 7.1, eye temp of +0.0C, and eye wall storm temp of -75C

WHOA!
1388. ariot
Quoting 1319. ProgressivePulse:

I think if we refrain from posting loops and animated items for the time being it may help things. Just post images. People in near harms way are probably checking in regularly for updates.


the loops, GIFs or images are all offsite, it won't slow anything down
mobile and low bandwidth users will get the text first anyway
1389. IDTH
1390. Patrap
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🌊🌎🎑✌
Quoting 1348. nash36:

Ummmm....




Trapped
Recon probably going to find a near Cat 5 150-155 I would guess
1393. hahaguy
I've been thinking for a few days a David like track riding the coast.
1394. ProPoly
Quoting 1300. thomaskerr1027:

How do you get out if you live on an island like Jamaica?





Get out of the surge zone and into the toughest building you can find.

nonononononono
Quoting 1351. MZT:


This storm has the insanely cold overshooting tops I associate with typhoons. Very ominous to see this in the Atlantic.


Due to the very warm Caribbean Sea waters.
The blog is so slow that when I looked at the blog after seeing the 18z GFS go out to sea, I was like "Why is everyone so concerned?"
Recon now desending:

1399. Patrap


Quoting 1353. SavannahStorm:

Dear Lord, GFS. 907mb???




how do you get the full res version?
Matthew is very close in becoming a cat 5 imo. Will be the first since Felix of 2007. 9 long years for many.
White on rainbow indicating very intense thunderstorms in the eye wall:

1403. aquak9
(waves from Jacksonville) HEY!!
Ya'll!! Do ya'll know where Jacksonville is? Have some respect!!

Stop it right this minute!!

STAHP!!!
Quoting 1327. DogtownMex:

I am thinking, I guess wishfully, that this crazy RI in the face of shear is a good thing as in it will peak out down in the southern carib and then kind of "struggle" inexplicably after it turns north maybe only hitting Jamaica as a Cat 3??? Just a hunch. Thanks for all the posts you guys/gals are great!

Only thing that could weaken Matthew right now is an eyewall replacement cycle (No sigh of one at this time) which would only be create temporary and would cause the wind field to expand.
I don't know what a hub cloud is, but I don't see concentric eye walls developing. His peak should be around 150-175mph winds.
1406. IDTH
GFS is like, everyone on the east coast get's a taste of Matthew.

What a disastrous run by the GFS, easily a multi-billion dollar storm if that verified.
Quoting 1338. SavannahStorm:

Georgia Hurricane Shield™, ENGAGE!




Where's a decent place to eat near Isle of Hope?
Would not be surprised at all if winds have gotten up to the 150 mph point. HH should arrive in less than an hour.

The northern eyewall is continuously producing hot towers.
1410. IDTH
Blog lag, new video from Levi
Link
Quoting 1303. Ricki13th:

18z GFS is a degree and a half to the west compared to the 12z GFS for what its worth.

Just FYI, New Providence is at the center of the eye here.... the island is 21 miles long and 7 miles wide ...

This is not a track I want to see verify....
1412. ackee
Quoting 1364. VegasRain:


I think Matthew will be a 155mph or 160mph storm by 11pm. Just look at the hot towers right now around the eyewall. And you can see the stadium effect developing in the eye. Depending on his exact track (the further west, the stronger due to higher TCHP values), Matthew could potentially go sub 900mb, possibly as low or lower than Wilma. I dont say that lightly. Wilma was my first storm that I watched as a member of Wunderground 11 years ago, and I see some very similar setups. Oct storms, high TCHP, ridging, rapid intensification in an area of reducing shear. I hope it get eye wall replacement and weaknes before it reach us here in Jamaica
Matthew has done things only what IVAN has done....   The CONUS  continues to move west and it continues to intensify.   I am afraid it may actually move over Florida and into the SE Gulf....   I was in BayMinette, Al when Ivan came through.  I will never forget that night..........
1414. nash36
Quoting 1370. IDTH:

CLOSE CALL




Even though it goes out to sea LITERALLY at the last second, this trend is very concerning.

The GFS has been coming back to west for several runs in a row now. It can't come any further west, without a US landfall.
18z GFS kills Cape Cod, MA with wind and heavy rain.
Quoting 1349. Sfloridacat5:

I would throw over this blog in my car if that was possible.
Sorry but we have a major hurricane in the Caribbean moving towards a close call with the U.S. and the blog isn't working.


Slow down is most likely due to the large number of comments coming in.

Quoting 1363. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Matthew the second! Also unlikely.
Joe was talking about this on his Facebook page


Now I am in it!!!! Oh no!
Quoting 1363. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Matthew the second! Also unlikely.
Actually is likely to have a storm in the SW Caribbean in Oct. Is where most of them form. Paloma and Michelle to name a few. Not saying it will happen but the SW Caribbean is where you watch in Oct. They usually move to the NE so Cuba and Jamaica will be the ones affected sadly again if it verifies.
Levi has a new update: Click Here
1421. NCSCguy
Quoting 1362. GTstormChaserCaleb:

OMFG!!! If current trends in the models continue it looks like the major hurricane drought in Florida and the U.S. will be over.



This just about made my blood run cool, here in Charleston. This is not an ideal place for a storm like this to be. Thoughs?
Has the GFDL risen out of the ashes and nailed this storm? It's been insistent on a close to FL strike for many runs now.
way does the GFDL keep putting FL into play?
1424. FOREX
Quoting 1362. GTstormChaserCaleb:

OMFG!!! If current trends in the models continue it looks like the major hurricane drought in Florida and the U.S. will be over.


What does OMFG stand for?
Upper level trough actually now captures Matthew and slings him into Cape Cod.
Nonetheless I bet a track change is coming at 11 with the GFS.
Quoting 1363. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Matthew the second! Also unlikely.
MJO and climatology says otherwise.
1428. Grothar
1429. FOREX
Quoting 1397. ElConando:

The blog is so slow that when I looked at the blog after seeing the 18z GFS go out to sea, I was like "Why is everyone so concerned?"
LOL, man we needed a light-hearted moment right about now.
I think Matthew peaks around 175mph by 5 am tomorrow morning. I think he reaches 150-160mph once the hurricane hunters are inside.
Quoting 1373. Grothar:










nonoononoonnononooonononoonoonnnnononoononononnon ononononoonnnnnono
StormJunkie,
The trend has been further and further West each run, it needs to trend East stat, if this gets to 80 W the US is in big trouble.
1433. IDTH
For the old timers here - "Is it pumping the ridge yet?"

Mike
For anyone who went through Andrew, Wilma, Katrina, and Sandy this is a very scary scene and all we have to do at our end is to track it and be prepared for any changes.
Quoting 1381. MrTornadochase:


Latest GFS shows CAT5 very close to FL/GA



Long time lurker, appreciate the insight of the many dedicated members here, have given me a novice appreciation for TS dynamics.

One thing I've never understood is what's displayed here.... is the wind gradient between open water and land really this steep? Ignoring gusts, 10 miles inland winds top out at 40 mph, while 10 miles offshore there are hurricane force winds? Is this is an accurate representation or are the models not equipped to handle the frictiction and variables associated with land?

Thanks in advance for input.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1398. Envoirment:

Recon now desending:




Pull up - Pull Up!
Quoting 1424. FOREX:

What does OMFG stand for?


One Must Forget Gfs
AF303 about to enter into Matthew.
Quoting 1319. ProgressivePulse:

I think if we refrain from posting loops and animated items for the time being it may help things. Just post images. People in near harms way are probably checking in regularly for updates.


I don't really think images or loops are the problem since those are all hosted on external servers. It is the shear volume of posts that is the problem, and the shear number of people viewing the blog...If everything was real time, the blog would be moving pretty dang rapidly as well. As presslord noted, this is now owned by IBM...They really shouldn't have problems freeing up some extra bandwidth.
Quoting 1400. Twinkster:



how do you get the full res version?

I get it from Tropicaltidbits
Link
1444. beell
Quoting 1408. presslord:



Where's a decent place to eat near Isle of Hope?



All things considered, and dependent upon your schedule-Atlanta?
1446. pingon
By the time you get to read this Matthew will be OTS.......................The Greenland Sea.
(and there will be a new blog) ;-)
eastern.gulf.next?
Quoting 1425. TheDawnAwakening:

Upper level trough actually now captures Matthew and slings him into Cape Cod.

At Cat4/5 too
Recon getting close to the center now. This will be interesting...
Quoting 1361. Camerooski:

Andrew. Wilma. Charley. Jeanne. Ivan. Frances. Katrina. Matthew?



Matthew just ate Florida.
Quoting 1418. wartsttocs:



Now I am in it!!!! Oh no!


Wow. If that plays out it might be the worst we have ever seen here in New Hampshire
1452. nash36
Quoting 1429. FOREX:

LOL, man we needed a light-hearted moment right about now.


I'd really like to curse, for a number of reasons; trouble is, I'd get banned.

On second thought, getting a 24hr ban may not even matter, since it takes about that long for the posts to show up.
not often you see a major model showing a Cat. 3 landfalling in...Portland, MAINE?! That would devastate Portland.

Wth GFS. you scary.
WU could pick up a huge new audience for Matthew or annoy a huge new audience for Matthew and send them elsewhere. More going on on the tech side then we can imagine, it's been discussed; no easy solution. They are doing the best they can.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=3453#commenttop new blog?
I'm pretty confident now South Florida won't get a direct hit (landfall) from Matthew, although I wouldn't rule out Hurricane force gusts occurring. I don't see it getting west of Andros Island's latitude before it's North West Palm beach, which is still about 150 miles away from the Florida coast. Central Florida Northward to Maine are still possible targets for landfall looking at the pattern.. Regardless consult the NHC far more than what I say, I'm not spit balling.
230200 1329N 07150W 6978 02652 9411 +190 +137 076010 015 024 000 03

941.1mb - lowest pressure reading so far and that's with 24kt winds.
225830 1331N 07157W 6994 02756 9626 +098 //// 025114 124 132 069 01
225900 1328N 07157W 6965 02763 9605 +102 //// 006118 126 133 066 05

132-133kt surface winds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
225630 1339N 07150W 6964 02891 9782 +082 +082 078123 127 088 082 00
225700 1338N 07152W 6955 02872 9733 +086 //// 072126 128 103 083 05
225730 1336N 07154W 6982 02808 9691 +090 +089 059128 133 /// /// 03
225800 1334N 07156W 6986 02788 //// +092 //// 044123 126 /// /// 05
225830 1331N 07157W 6994 02756 9626 +098 //// 025114 124 132 069 01
225900 1328N 07157W 6965 02763 9605 +102 //// 006118 126 133 066 05
225930 1326N 07157W 6971 02733 9523 +117 +111 349100 123 /// /// 05

123-133kt flight level winds.
Quoting 1444. beell:




All things considered, and dependent upon your schedule-Atlanta?


Most likely a bit problematic to get the boat to Atlanta.

Quoting 1354. unknowncomic:

This will be changing. Don't think anything can be that accurate yet because of all the variables involved here.

It's way west now and it's the GFS the end all die all east model
NEW BLOG
1463. FOREX
Quoting 1448. MrTornadochase:


At Cat4/5 too
I Think until Matthew actually starts to turn a different direction besides WSW, we should not even talk about the trough anymore.
Quoting 1460. StormJunkie:



Most likely a bit problematic to get the boat to Atlanta.


With this storm?...maybe not.
1465. MZT
Quoting 1406. IDTH:

GFS is like, everyone on the east coast get's a taste of Matthew.

Could be a colossal extratropical/Nor'easter if it gets up there. The windfield could expand like Sandy to cover several states.
I wonder if CaribBoy is moving to Jamaica?
1467. Michfan


That's ominous. Look at them hot towers.
1468. hmroe
Quoting 1458. Envoirment:

225830 1331N 07157W 6994 02756 9626 098 //// 025114 124 132 069 01
225900 1328N 07157W 6965 02763 9605 102 //// 006118 126 133 066 05

132-133kt surface winds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


We're looking at a CAT5 very soon
this was my concern....and people get vilified for wishcasting it further west into the Florida/Keys/Eastern Gulf, despite the westward trends of the models. Trust me, much of Florida (regardless of coast) is not prepared to handle such a cane nor wish to have one on our door step. My conjecture has been a) the ridging is stronger than expected (that's been shown the last day or so) b) the trough may have come down too fast and move out too quick with the stronger ridging in place for matthew to steer further west which would make the sharp turn north much less pronounced c) or even with a strong trough if its a slow moving storm (slows then meanders) the storm may move into the weakness due north but get caught after Cuba and move further west anyhow with ridging building back in place and over the top if there are no other lows to kick it out to sea. The timing of this storm is proving to be a potential nightmare, and unfortunately, the islands are having to deal with this monster on it's own.
Just got back to see Matthew intensifying into a monster now. One has to LOL at the intensity guidance earlier around 11 AM that had weakening back into the 95-100 mph rang by this evening. I know intensity forecasting is still poor, but as I said earlier, that just simply didn't make any sense to me, and still doesn't I don't even see where models where getting that from.

This intensified even faster than I expected though.

I would be really worried if I was living in Jamaica. The only thing that will stop this thing from it's feedback loop of intensification is an EWRC. But EWRC's aren't good either because they lead to major expansion of the wind field, and hurricanes can restrengthen back to original intensity after one given enough time.