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Hurricane Matthew Pounds Southeast With Record Storm Surge, Massive Flash Flooding

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2016

Hurricane Matthew made landfall near 11 am EDT Saturday about 25 miles northeast of Charleston, South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. During the past two high tide cycles, Matthew has pushed a historic and destructive storm surge to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, bringing coastal water levels that were the highest to third highest ever observed. The powerful hurricane, diminished to Category 2 strength with 105 mph winds early Saturday morning, nonetheless had a very large area of strong winds that were able to pile up a massive dome of water that was focused by the arc-shaped curve of the coast into a record-height storm surge. As of 8 am EDT Sunday, October 9, here were the approximate peak storm surges observed over the preceding 48 hours at all the tide gauges with a long-term period of record along the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia (storm surge is the added water produced by a storm atop the normal tidal cycles):

7.7’ Fort Pulaski, GA
6.4’ Fernandina Beach, FL
6.1’ Charleston, SC
4.5’ Mayport, FL
4.4’ Springmaid Pier, SC
4.1’ Wilmington, NC
4.1' Money Point (Norfolk), VA
3.5' Sewells Point (Norfolk), VA
3.3' Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA
2.6’ Beaufort, NC


Figure 1. In Savannah, GA, a car is stranded in waist-deep water near Ogeechee Road and Stiles Avenue on Saturday morning, October 8. Image credit: Savannah-Chatham Metropolitan Police Department.

Three tide gauges with long-term historical records along this stretch of coast set all-time records on Friday through Saturday for their highest water level (also called the storm tide, or the water level measured relative to high tide, MHHW):

Fort Pulaski, Georgia: 5.06’
Previous record: 3.40’ during the October 15, 1947 hurricane (records since 1935.)

Wilmington, NC: 3.53’ Previous record 3.47’, during Hurricane Hazel on October 15, 1954 (records since 1935.)

Mayport, FL: 3.28’
Previous record: 2.47’, during Hurricane Jeanne on September 27, 2004 (records since 1928.)

Near-record high water levels were observed at three other stations:

At Charleston SC, the water level during the Saturday morning high tide was the third highest on record: 3.53’. The record: 6.76’ during Hurricane Hugo on September 21, 1989; second highest, 4.47’ during the August 11, 1940 hurricane (records since 1921.)

At Fernandina Beach, FL, the water level during Friday afternoon’s high tide was the second highest on record: 4.17’. The record: 6.91’ during the October 2, 1898 hurricane (records since 1897.)

At Springmaid Pier, SC the water level during Saturday afternoon’s high tide was the second highest on record: 2.66’. The record 3.65’, during the January 1, 1987 nor’easter (records since 1957.)



Figure 2. Hurricane Matthew radar at 11 am EDT Saturday, October 8, 2016, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on. A storm surge of 5.4’ was indicated near Georgetown, South Carolina, with 3.5’ at Wilmington, North Carolina.

More high storm surges coming to SC, NC
Matthew will continue to track right along the coast of South Carolina this afternoon, then turn more to the northeast and track just south of the North Carolina coast Saturday night through Sunday morning. This track will push a dangerous storm surge of near record-high proportions to the coast, with NHC predicting inundations of 5 - 7’ possible from Charleston, SC to Cape Fear, and lower heights of 2 - 4’ for the coast of southern North Carolina farther to the east.

You can track Matthew’s storm surge using our wundermap with the “Storm Surge” layer turned on, the NOAA Tides and Currents storm page for Matthew or storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham’s U-SURGE page for Matthew. Dr. Needham has some excellent information on the storm surge history of the north Florida to southern South Carolina coast in a Friday morning blog post, The "Protected Coast" is Now the Most Dangerous Place of All.


Figure 3. Multi-sensor analysis of rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 8:00 am EDT Saturday, October 8, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Record atmospheric moisture contributing to Matthew’s deluge
Weakening winds and a track just offshore hasn’t impeded the ability of Hurricane Matthew to produce vast amounts of rain along and near the Southeast coast, as the storm took advantage of all-time record levels of atmospheric moisture. A special balloon sounding launched at 2 am EDT Saturday from Charleston, South Carolina, measured the highest amount of moisture in the air ever recorded there: a precipitable water level of 2.93” (previous record: 2.70” on August 15, 2010.) The Jacksonville, Florida upper-air station also set an all-time record for atmospheric moisture in their 8 pm Friday night balloon sounding: 2.85” of precipitable water, beating the previous record of 2.82” set on July 20, 1993. Precipitable water is the total amount of liquid water that would cover the ground over a given location if all the moisture in a column of air above was condensed. Balloon soundings of the atmosphere have records extending back to 1948.

Twenty-four hour rainfall amounts from Matthew of 2” - 5” were common across the eastern half of north Florida, with much greater totals piling up toward the north. The calendar-day total of 6.28” at Jacksonville International Airport on Friday made for the city’s fifth wettest October day on record. In Savannah, Georgia, the 8.94” of rain recorded on Friday was the city’s second-largest calendar-day rainfall on any date, beaten only by 9.02” on September 16, 1924. Records in Savannah go back to 1871. Several more inches of rain fell early Saturday as the eyewall continued rolling over the city, and Savannah’s 24-hour total through 8 am EDT was 11.50”.

Some of the higher 24-hour totals reported on Saturday morning from the CoCoRaHS volunteer observing network:

13.86” - Garden City, GA
12.90” - Reevesville, SC
11.00” - Hilton Head Island, SC*
11.00” - 8 miles S of Manning, SC*
10.00” - Summerville, SC*
9.70” - 7 miles WSW of Santee, SC
9.70” - NWS/Charleston, SC
9.39” - 12 mi N of Jacksonville, FL
[* = minimum value, as the rain gauge overflowed]


Figure 4. Rainfall predicted for the two-day period from 8 am EDT Saturday, October 8, 2016 to 8 am Monday, October 10. Image credit: NHC, via NOAA/NWS/WPC.

Major flash flood threat over southeastern Carolinas this weekend
Residents of parts of North and South Carolina must be having deja vu this morning, as torrential rains from Matthew are arriving almost precisely one year after the catastrophic deluge that caused $2 billion in damage during the first week of October 2015. A swath from around Charleston to Columbia, SC, was especially hard hit during the 2015 deluge. As Matthew continues its track just offshore, heavy rains will continue to deluge areas within about 100-150 miles of the Atlantic, with the heaviest amounts closest to the coast (see Figure 4.) At midday Saturday, flash flood watches and warnings were plastered across coastal counties from Georgia to Delaware, including the Hampton Roads area of southeast Virginia. A flash flood emergency was issued for several counties near Fayetteville, NC, where Matthew has already produced more than 8” of rain. The stage for severe flooding was set by rains that topped 10” just west of Fayetteville over the prior 10 days. A separate flash flood emergency was in effect for areas near the Grand Strand series of beaches in South Carolina.

Larger-scale river flooding may become a serious concern by early next week in some areas, especially the coastal plain of North Carolina. The N.E. Cape Fear River near Chinquapin was projected to crest at 22.6 feet on Tuesday. That would tie the crest from January 1, 1928, and fall behind only the record 23.51 feet observed during Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

Forecast: Matthew will die Sunday night
Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed a quickly degrading hurricane, with a disheveled-looking area of heavy thunderstorms that were being distorted by high wind shear of 30 knots. Matthew will encounter steadily more unfavorable conditions for existence over the next three days. Wind shear will rise above 40 knots, the atmosphere will dry, and the ocean temperatures will cool. Matthew is now expected to get entangled with a front a few hundred miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Sunday night, putting a final end to this long-lived tropical menace. The remnant non-tropical low pressure area that was Matthew may then loop to the south and southwest early next week, but will not be a high wind or heavy rain threat to The Bahamas.

Matthew was the 13th billion-dollar disaster in the U.S. this year
Insurance broker Aon Benfield, in an update sent out Friday evening, estimated that the total price tag for Matthew's damages across the U.S., The Bahamas, Cuba and Haiti would run well into the billions of dollars, and would be the 13th billion-dollar weather-related disaster for U.S. so far this year. This is now the second-most number of such disasters (adjusted for inflation) in the U.S. in one year, behind 2011, which had seventeen. Property data firm CoreLogic is estimating $4 - $6 billion in insured U.S. losses from Matthew; total losses are typically double insured losses.


Figure 5. Women walking down the street in Jeremie, southwest Haiti, after the city was devastated by Hurricane Matthew. Foto: Logan Abassi UN/MINUSTAH.

Portlight and Lambi Fund of Haiti disaster relief charities need your help
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is responding to Hurricane Matthew. Portlight is working with their partners and stakeholder organizations throughout the affected region to ensure the needs of people with disabilities are well met. It's important to note this includes people in directly impacted areas as well as the tens of thousands of evacuees. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

A note from Jeff Masters: For over ten years, I’ve been a big booster of and donor to the Lambi Fund of Haiti, which is very active in disaster relief and disaster prevention, including promotion of reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level to help avert future flood disasters.

What Lambi Fund is doing for their Hurricane Matthew response:
    •    Utilizing Regional Monitors and the active Partner Organizations (22 projects in portfolio) to survey the immediate needs in the South and Northwest in order to provide a primary response to these urgent needs
    •    Providing $150,000 for urgent relief during the first phase of their response while completing a needs assessment of the resources needed for the second phase, which will be to “Repair and Restore” the 22 active organizations’ projects that have been devastated
  •    Support the process of repairing the infrastructure damages (already established: 4 mills down in the Northwest, need to repair gardens, supply soil and nutrients essentially starting gardens over from scratch)

You can make your donation online at http://www.lambifund.org or send your funding support to: 

Lambi Fund of Haiti
1050 Connecticut Avenue, Suite 500
Washington DC 20036

We’ll be back with our next update by Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

doubt if the governor of New Jersey has the guts to call out Sen Marco Rubios comments "we are going to ask more the the allotted amount of federal aid for coastal Florida". we will never forget Sandy and the politicians that voted against federal aid for those affected by Sandy. us hurricane vulnerables have to stick together.
15 people dead in USA.



Current (updating while subsiding).
Quoting 491. miamivu:

Why is the NHC Cumulative Wind History showing Tropical Storm force winds across Broward County?
My yard has many large trees and not a twig was disturbed during Matthew; a neighbor reported an avocado fell to the ground during the storm...
Why is NHC persisting in forecasting that the remains of Matthew are moving east and seast when all the weather is clearly headed north...kinda directly towards NYC atm?
Today's forecast on the Jersey Shore is for rain and winds that could gust over 50 mph. This is possibly a result of Matthew's influence, the front and extratropical transition. In my opinion. I can hear the wind increasing now. We're supposed to have a parade today.
Hurricane Matthew reminds me so much of Floyd. Gonna turn, gonna turn never turned!
I finally got back to St. Augustine yesterday afternoon. Every square inch of my acre has debris and tons of branches down. One huge tree laid over (oak). Have a cedar tree down on the power line to my house, no power on our street. But NO damage to the house, and the surge water did not get into my house. Felling blessed. Good luck to all. Reedzone probably does not have power yet.
I have to wonder if once a storm gets over the Gulf stream northbound, that maybe there is some steering influence from below also determines the direction the storm moves. These barely offshore hurricanes have happened so very many times off northeast Florida. In fact, the best I can recall the only storms that come directly into the northeast coast are storms that either built in that area, or more often that have looped and been brought back directly into this area. I think the Gulf Stream feeds the storms, but also influence the steering.
The remains convection is beginning to reach nj. We are receiving winds, strong enough to blow leaves off trees and some much needed rain. I remember the model runs us getting 10 inches.☺
Good Morning. Being a US/Florida resident, I feel for all of the folks in Florida and up the Coast impacted by Matthew; all of the footage of the coastal damage and flooding is amazing and illustrates the damage that can result from a hurricane but with less loss of life because of the blessing of a national weather service and resources available in this Country to warn folks of an impeding storm, the reasonably safe structures/homes that most people (with the exception of mobile homes) live in, and the help available to people to deal with the aftermath.

On the other hand, I am devastated and deeply saddened by the number of lost lives in Haiti as well as the overall damage and lives lost in Cuba (if any) and in the Bahamas. It is what it is; the most poor County in the Hemisphere, just a few hundred miles from Florida, again being devastated by a natural disaster with massive loss of life and months/year of recovery efforts in the affected areas. Please consider donating something to the relief agencies for Haiti if you can....................Even $ 20.00 if that is all you can afford would be appreciated.



Quoting 502. AlphaBetaGamma01:

15 people dead in USA.
Good morning...Even though there was not direct landfall in Florida, and a cat-1 landfall in the Carolina's, Matthew was a very damaging storm..As for Haiti, Eastern Cuba , and the Bahamas., it will take years to recover...Safe to say Matthew will be retired .
Hope everyone was safe during the hurricane, now it's time to start f
I hope Matthew is the last storm anyone has to deal with this year. It just was devestating and heartbreaking, something we havent seen a storm do in a while. I hope anyone who wishes to get a Hurricane realizes and thinks twice now, remind yourself what if that was your property or your loved one that is gone. These storms are nothing to play with and you should always leave when told to no matter how strong a system. Prayers to everyone affected.
Hope everyone that was in the storm was safe, glad to see it moving away. Now I'm ready to start focusing on my time of the year where Fall/Winter approaches. Currently 53 degrees for MBY, so ready for my winter storms this year. BRING ON WINTER!!!!!!!
514. elioe
Good afternoon all!
I'm happy to see, that damages in USA have been estimated at less than ten billion USD.
I'm also happy to see, that less than thousand dead have been counted in Haiti. While the figure will rise somewhat, I doubt it will rise dramatically. Given past hurricanes, the damage from the 2010 earthquake, rise in population and deforestation since 1960's, path of Matthew and rain from the blob, I feared to see the number of deaths climbing into the vicinity of 100 000.

Apart from Nicole and its possible impacts in Bermuda, it is becoming quiet in Atlantic and time to monitor other basins. We are likely to see Seymour and Tina in EPac in next five days, neither impacting land. GFS shows TS Walaka forming in CPac about 5-7 days from now. Both GFS and ECMWF show the first storm of Australian region cyclone season forming soon; if so, it would be named either Yvette (by BoM) or Cempaka (by TCWC Jakarta). It's also the time for second peak of the year in North Indian Ocean activity, but there is unlikely to be anything in the next 8 days or so.
515. MZT
Collage of flood pics in Fayetteville. I'll admit it's not "Katrina Surge" bad, but lots of knee-to-waist deep water in new subdivisions. I suppose there will be flood map revisions after this....
Fay Today photos submissions

516. ariot
Quoting 453. Lurkindanger:



Wow, who is responsible to build it back? City/state or owner? Thats a lot of sand.


Taxpayers, generally speaking.

Private interests do some beach maintaining, but municipal, state and federal money is used for beach restoration more often than not. Some beaches provide for the common good, so we pay to keep them from going away.
Update to AMBER ALERT :

POLK COUNTY, Fla. (WIAT) — UPDATE OCT. 9, 1:30 AM CT: The Polk County Sheriff recently posted an update on Facebook. They said missing 4-year-old Rebecca Ann Lewis and her alleged abductor West Hogs were seen in Forsyth, Georgia but remain at large.

The post says Rebecca is wearing a pink dress, and they were traveling in the stolen silver Nissan Versa with Alabama handicap license plate 4JL26. They were spotted on camera at a gas station of I-75 around 6:30 p.m.

Officials said in the update posted approximately two hours earlier that they are still at large.

Hogs was wearing a light colored t-shirt and blue jeans. Officials say Rebecca appeared to be in good health. Their direction of travel is unknown, other than north out of Florida. He does have ties to the Seale, Alabama area, located in Russell County southeast of Auburn/Opelika.

A dedicated hotline has been set up for any tips or information about Rebecca’s abduction. Please call 1-877-419-0934 with any information.

http://wiat.com/2016/10/08/4-year-old-florida-gir l-abducted-by-alabama-male-reportedly-in-extreme-d anger/

Yes I know this is 8 hrs old..I was checking for updates.... there are pictures on the link...
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 3 minHá 3 minutos
At least 4 river gauges have seen record flooding in NC so far. Tar River in Greenville could see 2nd highest crest
Good morning everyone. Spent all day yesterday cleaning up around the house and getting things back in order. Lost power about 2:00am Friday morning and still no power. Should be back on from what FPL says around 11:00pm today. Alot homes here in the Melbourne area without power.Me and the wife checked into the Hilton to stay till Monday just incase. Not much damage around the area. Everyone in my neighborhood is fine.
Diamond Shoals,NC...

Location: 35.006N 75.402W
Date: Sun, 9 Oct 2016 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (350) at 48.6 kt gusting to 60.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 17.4 ft

Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 7.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction: N (354)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.35 in and rising rapidly
Air Temperature: 74.8 F
tropics back to being quiet.....
Quoting 491. miamivu:

Why is the NHC Cumulative Wind History showing Tropical Storm force winds across Broward County?
My yard has many large trees and not a twig was disturbed during Matthew; a neighbor reported an avocado fell to the ground during the storm...
Why is NHC persisting in forecasting that the remains of Matthew are moving east and seast when all the weather is clearly headed north...kinda directly towards NYC atm?


Isnt it because they follow the circulation center and not the precipitation?
Post-Tropical MATTHEW (AL142016)
Advisory #45A
12 hr Forecast
Valid at: 2:00 PM EDT Sun October 09, 2016
Location: 35.2 N, 73 W
Maximum Wind: 60 knots (70 mph)
Wind Gusts: 75 knots (85 mph)
Quoting 368. gulfcoastmom1969:

I know this is not weather related but we just had a AMBER ALERT

POLK COUNTY, Fla. (WIAT) — ALEA has issued an Amber Alert in the abduction of a four-year-old girl in Florida by a man with Alabama plates, according to a release from the department.

Rebecca Ann Lewis, 4, is described as three-feet-tall, 30 pounds, with blonde hair and blue eyes. Lewis was last seen on Saturday between 8 and 10 a.m. in South Central Florida. She was wearing blue shorts and a shirt of an unknown color.

Lewis was reportedly taken by a man named West Wild Hogs, also known as Matthew Clark Pybus, who is a white male that stands at 5’6″ and weighs 256 pounds. Hogs has blonde hair and blue eyes.

Hogs was reportedly driving a 2012 Nissan Versa with Alabama license plate “4JL26.” Lewis is believed to be in “extreme danger” according to the release.

If you have any information on their whereabouts, state troopers are asking you to contact the Polk County Sheriff’s Office at 1-863-307-2450; Alabama Law Enforcement Agency at 1-800-228-7688; or call 911.





They have been spotted in Georgia but she is still missing.
Updates here:
Link
As Matthew finally fades away, the full extent of his punishment is far from over. Not only does Nicole still wander the waters, but she poses a potentially significant hurricane threat to Bermuda by late-week.

Not to mention that the remnants of his moisture are still affecting the east: we will learn in the coming weeks the harrowing and tragic news from the currently unreachable parts of Haiti; we will get a grasp on the economic losses in affected states, Bahamas and Cuba - as well as potentially even more dead.

Monstrous Matthew has left quite the terrible legacy. His name has got to go.

But as long as we have Nicole, the tropics are not quiet in the Atlantic.
Quoting 521. bupsin101:

tropics back to being quiet.....


Tell that to the Outer Banks.
Quoting 524. Dsntslp:



They have been spotted in Georgia but she is still missing.
Updates here:
Link


I have an update in post 517 at least she was still alive when spotted last
Apologies, double post.



And now back to your regular programming. The stunning weather continues this year in SoCAL, highs in the 70s this week, lows in the 50s with that crisp blue sky. Much nicer than that 90s stuff we've had the last few years in October. Off to Disneyland with the kids!
Quoting 526. Bucsboltsfan:



Tell that to the Outer Banks.
DBC
Location: 35.006N 75.402W
Date: Sun, 9 Oct 2016 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 46.6 kt gusting to 58.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Average Wave Period: 6.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: N (352°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.43 in and rising rapidly

Buoy off Virginia Beach...

Location: 36.611N 74.842W
Date: Sun, 9 Oct 2016 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (360°) at 50.5 kt gusting to 64.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 22.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Average Wave Period: 8.2 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NNE (22°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.47 in and rising
Air Temperature: 65.1 F
both matthew and 1960s donna were equivalent in their barometric pressures. can you imagine modern day donna. S Fl. would be in ruins.
Quoting 491. miamivu:

Why is the NHC Cumulative Wind History showing Tropical Storm force winds across Broward County?
My yard has many large trees and not a twig was disturbed during Matthew; a neighbor reported an avocado fell to the ground during the storm...
Why is NHC persisting in forecasting that the remains of Matthew are moving east and seast when all the weather is clearly headed north...kinda directly towards NYC atm?


Because the area did experience some tropical storm force winds. And there were some stronger winds that did roll through the area, between 10:30 and 3:00 at night.
Quoting 531. islander101010:

both matthew and 1960s donna were equivalent in their barometric pressures. can you imagine modern day donna. S Fl. would be in ruins.
May have another storm in the Western Caribbean next week..Its wait and see.
Quoting 521. bupsin101:

tropics back to being quiet.....


Bermuda and Nicole beg to differ

Lost power around 7:30 last night, heard I-40 is closed in several spots as is I-95. Wrightsville Avenue closed too.
Highest amount of moisture in the air ever recorded - the storm took advantage of all-time record levels of atmospheric moisture.

So this moisture, what contributed to the record amounts, what was so special?
Quoting 535. win1gamegiantsplease:

Lost power around 7:30 last night, heard I-40 is closed in several spots as is I-95. Wrightsville Avenue closed too.

Unbelievable but we never lost power.
Quoting 491. miamivu:

Why is the NHC Cumulative Wind History showing Tropical Storm force winds across Broward County?
My yard has many large trees and not a twig was disturbed during Matthew; a neighbor reported an avocado fell to the ground during the storm...
Why is NHC persisting in forecasting that the remains of Matthew are moving east and seast when all the weather is clearly headed north...kinda directly towards NYC atm?


Many in Broward lost electricity, per FPL's storm totals.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 4 minHá 4 minutos
Death toll rises to 7 in North Carolina. At least 887 water rescues reported
Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads hit harder than expected. Currently 225k without power, another 12+ inches of rain on top of 15 inches a couple of weeks ago.
Anaridis Rodriguez ‏@Anaridis 43 minHá 43 minutos
At least 15 dead from #Matthew in U.S.
7 in #NC, 3 in #GA, 5 in #FL.
887 water rescues in NC alone.
Tx you 1st responders! @weatherchannel
Quoting 514. elioe:

Good afternoon all!
I'm happy to see, that damages in USA have been estimated at less than ten billion USD.
I'm also happy to see, that less than thousand dead have been counted in Haiti. While the figure will rise somewhat, I doubt it will rise dramatically.
I suppose there's some solace to be had in the knowledge that more could have been killed, and more destruction could have been caused. But, still, many hundreds dead in Haiti (with more to come from Matthew's knock-on effects such as cholera and food shortages), along with damage to property and infrastructure in the Bahamas, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and the U.S. running into the tens of billions of dollars, makes it hard for me to be "happy" about this at all.
Hello all.. Still without power.. i live further inland in new Hanover county and huge oak trees are down on power lines as my husband and I went out to survey damage..Unfortunately Matthew isn't finished with NC as the rivers will crest..

Later
I wonder what it is like to be perfect.
Quoting 534. JrWeathermanFL:



Bermuda and Nicole beg to differ



Nicole is one of the weirder storms I've seen. Whenever it seemingly dies, it balloons back up in the face of shear. Kinda like matthew, who became a cat 5 in the shear😊
Quoting 540. Monrach:

Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads hit harder than expected. Currently 225k without power, another 12+ inches of rain on top of 15 inches a couple of weeks ago.


Yes, Virginia Beach is much worse than expected. This thing rode a lot farther north than expected. Found one grocery store open though in Great Neck area. A guy in there was a little panicked that he couldn't find an open gas station. Amazingly, my house still has power, but most of the surrounding area doesn't. My parents can't get out of their neighborhood and there's three ways in and out of there. Downed trees, power lines, and flooding blocking the roads.
Quoting 544. luvtogolf:

I wonder what it is like to be perfect.


Its totally awesome! But comes with a depressing increasingly burdensome sense of responsibility. j/k
Wind gusts: previous 24 hours
Rainfall: previous 48 hours. Feel for you guys. Please stay safe all. Light blue is > 14 inches.

Sorry wishcasters. Enough of the humidity and storm chaos in FL. Bring on a cool front.
Quoting 525. LostTomorrows:

As Matthew finally fades away, the full extent of his punishment is far from over. Not only does Nicole still wander the waters, but she poses a potentially significant hurricane threat to Bermuda by late-week.

Not to mention that the remnants of his moisture are still affecting the east: we will learn in the coming weeks the harrowing and tragic news from the currently unreachable parts of Haiti; we will get a grasp on the economic losses in affected states, Bahamas and Cuba - as well as potentially even more dead.

Monstrous Matthew has left quite the terrible legacy. His name has got to go.

But as long as we have Nicole, the tropics are not quiet in the Atlantic.

On top of that, models are starting to hint that Otto is going to form next week. Plus, the past two systems have laughed at shear and dry air until recently, when Matt started weakening because of the shear.
Quoting 536. drg0dOwnCountry:

Highest amount of moisture in the air ever recorded - the storm took advantage of all-time record levels of atmospheric moisture.

So this moisture, what contributed to the record amounts, what was so special?

A tropical system moving over near record warm Sea surface temperatures as warmer SSTs add miosture through evaporation Probably contributed somewhat.
Quoting 532. ProphetessofDoom:



Because the area did experience some tropical storm force winds. And there were some stronger winds that did roll through the area, between 10:30 and 3:00 at night.

Yeah, we had TS winds Thursday Night/Friday Morning..I think the highest were 60-70..idk how frequent. I heard 1 tree fell lol and saw a transformor blow up. Also, the traffic lights were out for 6 hrs on Thursday. 9000 poweroutages...not too bad
Matthew really bumped up the ACE in the Atlantic pushing us above our average seasonal ACE with a month and a half of Hurricane season still to go
Link
Nobody has speculated on the anomaly of both the Atlantic storms, Matthew and Nicole. Both of them have a peculiar signature about them, that being a piggyback disturbance which oscillates from 0 to 90 degrees about the storm. Again, it does not rotate around the storm, but travels back and forth, remaining in the northeast quadrant. That is super strange. Any comments??
Does anyone have links to the models predicting 'Otto'?



Quoting 533. hydrus:

May have another storm in the Western Caribbean next week..Its wait and see.
Quoting 544. luvtogolf:

I wonder what it is like to be perfect.


If we were perfect, then we would be monsters!
Quoting 547. daddyjames:



Its totally awesome! But comes with a depressing increasingly burdensome sense of responsibility. j/k
Touche!!!
So do you think it's safe to say that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is over? Or might we see one or two more named storms before the end of this month.
Quoting 536. drg0dOwnCountry:

Highest amount of moisture in the air ever recorded - the storm took advantage of all-time record levels of atmospheric moisture.

So this moisture, what contributed to the record amounts, what was so special?


Very good question for scientists and bloggers.
Hurricane Matthew is the first hurricane with the letter "M" to make landfall in the USA.

After devastating Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas, Hurricane Matthew brought hurricane force wind gusts to four states: FL, GA, SC, NC.

Since 1990, the U.S. coast has been hit by 3 tropical storms beginning with the letter "M"

In 2004, Tropical Storm "Matthew" hit Louisiana. Tropical Storm "Mitch" (1998) hit Florida, after devastating Central America. Tropical Storm "Marco" hit the west coast of Florida in 1990.
Quoting 555. Bartje:

Does anyone have links to the models predicting 'Otto'?




Link


562. elioe
Quoting 555. Bartje:

Does anyone have links to the models predicting 'Otto'?






Many GFS ensemble members show weak lows moving from E of Nicaragua towards the NE.



GEM shows a weak storm moving onshore in Belize even earlier, but well... it's the GEM.
Quoting 558. HurriHistory:

So do you think it's safe to say that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is over? Or might we see one or two more named storms before the end of this month.
maybe 3 more two for remainder of oct one in nov
Frost advisory in effect for:
City of Toronto
Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to provide clear skies and temperatures close to or below the freezing mark tonight. Areas located adjacent to the Great Lakes might be a little milder but locations inland can expect frost.
Cover up plants, especially those in frost-prone areas.

Frost advisories are issued when temperatures are expected to the reach freezing mark during the growing season, leading to potential damage and destruction to plants and crops.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 558. HurriHistory:

So do you think it's safe to say that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is over? Or might we see one or two more named storms before the end of this month.


Time to turn your attention to the NW Caribbean and GOM. I think we'll see a couple more.
Quoting 558. HurriHistory:

So do you think it's safe to say that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is over? Or might we see one or two more named storms before the end of this month.

Strong favorable MJO is forecast to move into the Atlantic in about a week along with above average SSTs so I wouldn't be suprised to see a one or two named storms or even another hurricane this month.
See Yall tomorrow and condolences to the families of all lost in Matthew in the Caribbean and the United States.

On the tropical storm front, the global tropics in the Northern Hemisphere still remains quite active in October; this has been happening in the Earth for eons but one also has to wonder how the impact of GW, in terms of global SST's will have an impact on frequency and/or strength of tropical storms and whether we will see "longer" seasons in the future, or isolated very strong storms, from time to time both before and/or after the current season dates.  Seems to me that the well established global Enso pattern is not changing anytime soon and given warm ssts, the more limiting factors for many storms still seems to be a favorable shear window and moist air vs. dry air issues at any given time in the life of any particular storm. 


Combined image of all basins
Quoting 513. Accu35blog:

Hope everyone that was in the storm was safe, glad to see it moving away. Now I'm ready to start focusing on my time of the year where Fall/Winter approaches. Currently 53 degrees for MBY, so ready for my winter storms this year. BRING ON WINTER!!!!!!!
Yes, I can't wait too, some trees have started to slowly begin their color change, and the weather today is nice, cool, and breezy.
11:28 AM
Temperature:
52.2°F
Dewpoint:
37.9°F
Humidity:
58%
Wind:
NNW 18 mph

Quoting 560. Stormwatch247:

Hurricane Matthew is the first hurricane with the letter "M" to make landfall in the USA.

After devastating Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas, Hurricane Matthew brought hurricane force wind gusts to four states: FL, GA, SC, NC.

Since 1990, the U.S. coast has been hit by 3 tropical storms beginning with the letter "M"

In 2004, Tropical Storm "Matthew" hit Louisiana. Tropical Storm "Mitch" (1998) hit Florida, after devastating Central America. Tropical Storm "Marco" hit the west coast of Florida in 1990.


So this is the second Matthew to make landfall in the US? And I suspect it is the last one ever as well.
I wouldn't mind to see Nicole diving more to the south. No big rain for 2 weeks. Nicole sheared and killed all the waves trying to enter the Caribbean.
Quoting 558. HurriHistory:

So do you think it's safe to say that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is over? Or might we see one or two more named storms before the end of this month.


It ain't over until December 1st.
573. IDTH
Quoting 567. weathermanwannabe:

See Yall tomorrow and condolences to the families of all lost in Matthew in the Caribbean and the United States.

On the tropical storm front, the global tropics in the Northern Hemisphere still remains quite active in October; this has been happening in the Earth for eons but one also has to wonder how the impact of GW, in terms of global SST's will have an impact on frequency and/or strength of tropical storms and whether we will see "longer" seasons in the future, or isolated very strong storms, from time to time both before and/or after the current season dates.  Seems to me that the well established global Enso pattern is not changing anytime soon and given warm ssts, the more limiting factors for many storms still seems to be a favorable shear window and moist air vs. dry air issues at any given time in the life of any particular storm. 


Combined image of all basins

Lately September hasn't been the peak month it seems. August is always decently busy and then September ends up being less active than expected. October the past 3 seasons has produced the most significant storm, Gonzalo, Joaquin and Matthew. You could get technical and say Joaquin and Matthew were late September but the point is their life cycle went through most of October.
Quoting 550. ThisIsNotSparta:


On top of that, models are starting to hint that Otto is going to form next week. Plus, the past two systems have laughed at shear and dry air until recently, when Matt started weakening because of the shear.

We will have to keep watching the Atlantic into November this year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if something popped up somewhere during December - it sometimes happens.
Quoting 574. HurricaneFan:


We will have to keep watching the Atlantic into November this year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if something popped up somewhere during December - it sometimes happens.


Alex in January showed that hurricanes can even form off season in what is normally the dead of winter.
Quoting 572. FunnelVortex:



It ain't over until December 1st.


I always say it's over when the final advisory is written on the last storm of the season, regardless of date.
Quoting 573. IDTH:


Lately September hasn't been the peak month it seems. August is always decently busy and then September ends up being less active than expected. October the past 3 seasons has produced the most significant storm, Gonzalo, Joaquin and Matthew. You could get technical and say Joaquin and Matthew were late September but the point is their life cycle went through most of October.


Gonna head home (at the office) but you hit the nail on the head in terms of recent Atlantic seasons. We have seen very robust ITCZ (waves) in the Central Atlantic recently in June/July/August, it then dries up suddenly in late August and going into the peak in September, then we see isolated waves develop in late-Sept and October into strong Atlantic storms.

Waaaay above my pay-grade but something has been going on in the Central Atlantic drying up as noted for these periods over the past several seasons then seeing the moisture content go back up after the peak period..........Anyone's guess as to this issue is welcome....................................
14L POST TROPICAL DEACTIVATE

579. IDTH
I basically abandoned the blog after Joaquin last year because it felt like that was going to be that last one. I don't feel Matthew and Nicole are the last one's though. I'll be here to at least the end of October. I'm just interested in Hurricane season, leave me out of the winter and tornado seasons.

After the season is over, I'll be heading out and I'll be back for next season as always.
Nicole impacting Bermuda in 4 days.
Quoting 549. unknowncomic:

Sorry wishcasters. Enough of the humidity and storm chaos in FL. Bring on a cool front.


But...isn't that a form of wishcasting in and of itself? Of course, I have the same wish! I'd give anything for another winter like 2009-2010!
Quoting 580. Climate175:

I agree with Keep, I think 2-3 more, then the season wraps up end of next month as expected.


Models are hinting at something in the Caribbean. Climatology says so also.
Quoting 536. drg0dOwnCountry:

Highest amount of moisture in the air ever recorded - the storm took advantage of all-time record levels of atmospheric moisture.

So this moisture, what contributed to the record amounts, what was so special?
Mathew was over the Atlantic and Caribbean for a very long time, allowing the storm to gather enormous amounts of moisture. Very warm sea temps were definitely a factor.

Quoting 578. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

14L POST TROPICAL DEACTIVATE




?

😯
Quoting 579. IDTH:

I basically abandoned the blog after Joaquin last year because it felt like that was going to be that last one. I don't feel Matthew and Nicole are the last one's though. I'll be here to at least the end of October. I'm just interested in Hurricane season, leave me out of the winter and tornado seasons.

After the season is over, I'll be heading out and I'll be back for next season as always.


Don't leave, ID. During the off-season you'll miss all the best insults and fights.
A long time wu member and friend of many, needs some uplifting thoughts and healing
juju prayers.

His wife was injured just last evening.


Thank you.


Quoting 584. Patrap:



?

😯

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold
front has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's
circulation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an
extratropical low. Despite the change in the cyclone's structure
over the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very
strong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained
winds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported
at several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global
Hawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt. The global models
indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during
the next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in
about 48 hours.

Matthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt. The low should continue
moving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the
next day or so. The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the
ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled
by non-tropical wind warnings.


Quoting 585. Grothar:



Don't leave, ID. During the off-season you'll miss all the best insults and fights.

How's Winter Storm tracking on WU?
Flood waters continue to rise in Eastern and Central NC. Dams are breached or have failed in many areas. The Tarr and Neuce Rivers are expected to break all time records by many feet!

I just learned I-40 WB near Bensen has collapsed due to flooding, and is closed indefinitely!
Quoting 587. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold
front has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's
circulation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an
extratropical low. Despite the change in the cyclone's structure
over the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very
strong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained
winds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported
at several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global
Hawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt. The global models
indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during
the next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in
about 48 hours.

Matthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt. The low should continue
moving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the
next day or so. The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the
ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled
by non-tropical wind warnings.





U should have jus posted DAT to begin with,eh ?

😁👍🌞
Quoting 588. Icybubba:


How's Winter Storm tracking on WU?


Top-notch. There are some excellent bloggers on winter storms and tornado season. The big argument is still whether or not winter storms should be named. But honestly, there are some very good blogs on winter storms.
593. IDTH
Quoting 585. Grothar:



Don't leave, ID. During the off-season you'll miss all the best insults and fights.

lol, Gro as much as I'd love to see even more ridiculous bickering than what happened during Hurricane Season, this is just a hobby of mine. During the winter I'll be much busier and overloaded than I am during the Hurricane season.

I love this blog though and the regulars on it. I still got another month or so and I have feeling it isn't gonna go out lightly.
Quoting 591. Grothar:



Top-notch. There are some excellent bloggers on winter storms and tornado season. The big argument is still whether or not winter storms should be named. But honestly, there are some very good blogs on winter storms.

Does Jeff Masters do Winter Storms? (Also Winter Storms should be named ;))
Looking at the models, it's possible Nicole could end up being problematic for Bermuda. The 00z ECMWF shows Nicole impacting the island as a major hurricane. The 12z GFS shows Nicole going east enough to spare Bermuda of any significant impacts, but does show the system intensifying into a major hurricane.
Quoting 586. Patrap:

A long time wu member and friend of many, needs some uplifting thoughts and healing
juju prayers.

His wife was injured just last evening.


Thank you.




Sorry to hear that, Patrap! Healing thoughts her way!
Two new earthen dams just failed in Wilson and Lumberton, NC. If you live downstream from any detained water in NC; be prepared to move quickly!
Quoting 579. IDTH:

I basically abandoned the blog after Joaquin last year because it felt like that was going to be that last one. I don't feel Matthew and Nicole are the last one's though. I'll be here to at least the end of October. I'm just interested in Hurricane season, leave me out of the winter and tornado seasons.

After the season is over, I'll be heading out and I'll be back for next season as always.


I think we'll see a few more named storms in October and November, perhaps even another hurricane.
Good to be back on WU, I needed to take a break from tropical cyclones after the devastation of Matthew
LOUISIANA
La. Guard sends helicopters, crew to aid Matthew ops


PINEVILLE — The Louisiana National Guard deployed helicopters and crew Friday to aid in operations in Florida and South Carolina following Hurricane Matthew.

A total of eight aircraft — two UH-60 Blackhawks and two UH-72 Lakotas — departed from Army Aviation Support Facility No. 1 in Hammond and AASF No. 2 at Esler Field in Pineville.

The medics, crew chiefs, maintenance support, pilots and aircraft will support Florida and South Carolina’s hurricane response as part of the Emergency Management Assistance Compact.

Nicole is a very tenacious tropical cyclone. Still facing a huge amount of shear yet blowing up -80C cloudtops. This could very easily become a hurricane again soon.

604. MZT
Some road washouts around Fayetteville:

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/m/ MZT/2.jpg
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/m/ MZT/3.jpg

THIS is why you don't go driving around on untested pavement during a hurricane!
matts remains pulling down the cooler air over eastern lower lakes

temps forecasted for a high of 55 today with 20 gusting too 30 kmh nnw winds wind chill will feel 45

tonight winds drop off temps plunge into low to mid 30's

Quoting 592. PensacolaDoug:

Must be lonely living in that ivory tower of yours.

What? I know that recent events having nothing to do with the weather have left you in a foul mood, but how is an enumeration of the suffering caused by Matthew a sign that someone is living in an ivory tower?
607. IDTH
Quoting 586. Patrap:

A long time wu member and friend of many, needs some uplifting thoughts and healing
juju prayers.

His wife was injured just last evening.


Thank you.




My thoughts are with him and his wife. I hope she is alright.
I think the final tally for the 2016 Atlantic season might be 17-7-3 if I were to guess
We can build a wall around the Caribbean, and make dem pay fo it.

S'casm

Quoting 606. ACSeattle:


What? I know that recent events having nothing to do with the weather have left you in a foul mood, but how is an enumeration of the suffering caused by Matthew a sign that someone is living in an ivory tower?



Werd'
fire up the boilers at 4 pm today 2 of 6 will be lit up

forecasted overnight low 0 to +1 Celsius

coolest air of fall so far trees been changing fast and will now become faster and start the drop after the cool shot today tonight and again Monday/night slight rebound Tuesday Wednesday then cools down again end of the week into weekend
Atlantic basin ACE so far this year 112.97. Normal is 87. Percent of Normal this year 129%. Last Year 60.
Storm total numbers must be higher than most has predicted.
Me think he may b mad about the orange clown actually living in a Ivory tower.

😁
Quoting 610. Patrap:

We can build a wall around the Caribbean, and make dem pay fo it.

S'casm





Quoting 544. luvtogolf:

I wonder what it is like to be perfect.


Me too, I have tried to ask my exwife but she has never answered me.
Matthew's U.S. death toll rises to 14 amid North Carolina flooding





1 / 18
Ivan Juric photographs his damaged beach house at Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., on Saturday after Hurricane Matthew passed. (AP photo by Charlie Riedel)
Drew Broach, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
The Associated Press By The Associated Press
on October 09, 2016 at 8:52 AM, updated October 09, 2016 at 9:32 AM
8
shares
WILMINGTON, N.C. — The remnants of Hurricane Matthew triggered severe flooding across North Carolina as the storm made its exit to the sea Sunday (Oct. 9), and hundreds of people were rescued from their homes and cars. The death toll in the United States rose to at least 14, half of them in North Carolina.

The storm was stripped of hurricane status just before daybreak, but the crisis — set off by more than a foot of rain — was far from over. "As the sun rises in North Carolina and the blue sky returns, our state is facing major destruction and, sadly, loss of life," Gov. Pat McCrory said as the effects of the deluge became clearer at daylight.

Rivers and creeks overflowed, driving people from their homes and trapping others as much as 100 miles inland. The unofficial rainfall totals were staggering: 18 inches in Wilmington, 14 inches in Fayetteville and 8 inches in Raleigh.

McCrory said that there had been more than 800 water rescues and that four people were missing in hard-hit Fayetteville. "The storm is not over for North Carolina," he warned.

Shortly before daybreak, the hurricane was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone. As of 9 a.m. central time, the storm was centered about 60 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., moving out to sea. It still had hurricane-force winds of 75 mph.

Forecasters said North Carolina and Virginia could get even more rain. They warned of the danger of life-threatening flooding through Monday night.

"Stay home. Most of your church services have been cancelled. There's no reason to go out. Take the day off," Fayetteville Mayor Nat Robertson said.

Haitian families mourn loved ones killed by hurricane
Haitian families mourn loved ones killed by hurricane
Hundreds dead as Haiti braces for a rise in cholera cases and grapples with what could become the worst crisis since a 2010 earthquake.

While the crisis was far from over in North Carolina, other places to the south began getting back to normal, with millions relieved that the storm wasn't the catastrophe for which many had been bracing. In many places along the Southeast coast, the damage consisted mostly of flooded streets, blown-down signs and awnings, flattened trees and power outages.

As the skies cleared on Saturday, people started cleaning up, reopening their businesses or hitting the beach. The power started coming back on. And all three major theme parks the Orlando, Fla., area, including Walt Disney World, were up and running.

Along Daytona Beach's main drag, the Silver Diner had all of its shiny metal siding ripped off the front and sides, leaving only a wood frame exposed. Next door, the window of a souvenir shop had been blown out and the roof and ceiling torn through, leaving pink insulation dangling.

David Beasley, president of Insurance Recovery Inc., surveyed the damage and said that although it looked bad, the main strip was hit harder by hurricanes Charley and Frances in 2004. "This is not much compared to those two," he said.

On Saturday, Matthew sideswiped two of the South's oldest and most historic cities — Savannah, Ga.,, and Charleston, S.C. — and also brought torrential rain and stiff wind to places like Myrtle Beach, S.C. After pounding North Carolina and drenching parts of Virginia, it was expected to veer out to sea, lose steam and loop back around toward the Bahamas and Florida, too feeble to cause any trouble.

People got incredibly lucky. It was a super close call.' - meteorology professor Phil Klotzbach
For almost its entire run up the coast from Florida, Matthew hung just far enough offshore that communities did not feel the full force of its winds. Its eye finally blew ashore just north of Charleston on Saturday, but only briefly. And by that time, Matthew was just barely a hurricane, with winds of only 75 mph.

Matthew's winds were howling at a terrifying 145 mph when the hurricane struck Haiti. Five days later, the full extent of the tragedy there was not yet known because some devastated areas were still unreachable.

About 100 guests and workers were evacuated from a Comfort Inn motel in the North Carolina coastal town of Southport after the hurricane cracked a wall and left the roof in danger of collapse, authorities said. And dramatic video showed Fayetteville police rescuing a woman and her small child from their car as rising waters swallowed it.

An estimated 2 million people in the Southeast were ordered to evacuate their homes as Matthew closed in. By hugging the coast, the storm behaved pretty much as forecasters predicted. A shift of just 20 or 30 miles could have meant widespread devastation.

"People got incredibly lucky," said meteorology professor Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. "It was a super close call."

While Matthew's wind speed had dropped considerably by the time it hit the Southeast coast, the storm will rank as one of the most powerful hurricanes on record, based on such factors as wind energy and longevity, and as one of the most long-lived major hurricanes, too. It was a major hurricane — that is, with winds of at least 110 mph — for more than seven days.

Hundreds of thousands of people lost power in North Carolina, three quarters of a million in South Carolina, 250,000 in Georgia and about 1 million in Florida.

Four deaths were blamed on the storm in Florida, three in Georgia and three in North Carolina. The deaths included an elderly Florida couple who died from carbon monoxide fumes while running a generator in their garage and two women who were killed when trees fell on a home and a camper.

Property data firm CoreLogic projected that insured losses on home and commercial properties would amount to $4 billion to $6 billion, well below Hurricane Katrina's $40 billion and Hurricane Sandy's $20 billion.
No disrespect to the wonderful forcasters at the NHC but I think they need to throw away their weather computers and get some new ones. Think their expertise would have probably been more on spot if they had not relied on computer guidence-
619. vis0

Quoting 586. Patrap:

A long time wu member and friend of many, needs some uplifting thoughts and healing
juju prayers.

His wife was injured just last evening.


Thank you.



Sending some healing vibes through prayers.


620. elioe
Quoting 612. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



During this week, there were a few nights with freezing temperatures. On mornings, frost deposition was visible on nearby roofs. Coldest was -5 degrees Celsius. For the next 10 days, forecast lows hover between +2 C and +4 C. After that, GFS shows the first snowfall of the winter.

Quoting 610. Patrap:

We can build a wall around the Caribbean, and make dem pay fo it.

S'casm



I seem to remember a few years ago they were talking about putting huge pumps on the sea bed at the entrance to the Caribbean to pump to the surface cool water in order to prevent hurricanes from entering the area.
Thanx viz,


Much appreciated.

💓
Quoting 615. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






That done took my breath away
Reminded me of Tolkien:
“From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.”
Quoting 620. elioe:



During this week, there were a few nights with freezing temperatures. On mornings, frost deposition was visible on nearby roofs. Coldest was -5 degrees Celsius. For the next 10 days, forecast lows hover between 2 C and 4 C. After that, GFS shows the first snowfall of the winter.




yeah its on the way I am hoping for not a real snowy winter I know there will be some just hope its not a winter where I am out shoveling snow every two days till april starting first week of November but if it is o well I will be ready

tear out all the flowers this week get the winter stuff out of storage wash out salt boxes get em out and tune up the sno blower should all be done by early next week this week is a short 4 day work week tomorrow is our thanksgiving day in Canada

Quoting 612. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

fire up the boilers at 4 pm today 2 of 6 will be lit up
(snip)

I exposed one of two solar "furnaces" (heaters) on my house last week.

626. MahFL
Cable came back on here in Orange Park.
Quoting 594. Icybubba:


Does Jeff Masters do Winter Storms? (Also Winter Storms should be named ;))



the weather CH dos the winter storm nameing
628. MahFL
Quoting 618. weathertrouble:

No disrespect to the wonderful forcasters at the NHC but I think they need to throw away their weather computers and get some new ones. Think their expertise would have probably been more on spot if they had not relied on computer guidence-


Well for Florida the forecast was pretty accurate, the track forecast was for the eye to remain just offshore, which it did. If the eye had come onshore the damage would have been ten times in Florida.
Excellent during-the-storm video montage of each area Matthew hit.
https://youtu.be/n3vidANS1-c
Quoting 602. CybrTeddy:

Nicole is a very tenacious tropical cyclone. Still facing a huge amount of shear yet blowing up -80C cloudtops. This could very easily become a hurricane again soon.


Is it possible that we could see another hurricane hit Florida before the season ends? I remember the train effect in 2005, could that happen again this year?
It got pretty serious here last night. More siding was ripped off the house, several more trees fell (including one that fell about 3 ft away from my bedroom...phew), we heard a few transformers blow from a little distance away, and our street light was tilted. It's a nice day outside right now and the immediate yard/neighborhood road flooding has gone down. Biggest story now is the rising rivers, with most well above flood stage and near record levels.

Matthew is definitely the most memorable hurricane here in NC since Isabel.
633. WBNC
2 miles inland of wrightsville beach pulled through with about 4 inches of rain. Never lost power no trees down close to us. Around town seeing quite a few trees down. Winds last night were scary when they switched. Gusts of 69 mph. Feeling very lucky this morning.
Quoting 631. birdsrock2016:

Is it possible that we could see another hurricane hit Florida before the season ends? I remember the train effect in 2005, could that happen again this year?


We get to watch NW Carribean and GOM.
Quoting 631. birdsrock2016:

Is it possible that we could see another hurricane hit Florida before the season ends? I remember the train effect in 2005, could that happen again this year?


Quoting 631. birdsrock2016:

Is it possible that we could see another hurricane hit Florida before the season ends? I remember the train effect in 2005, could that happen again this year?


i think it safe too say that hurricane season is now closed for the USA after mat




wind shear is taking over if we do see any more storms it will be in the Caribbean but even that is getting slim at this point
Hate the weather here in the FL Panhandle. Might as well be living out in the deserts of Southern California. For the last 2 weeks it's been cloudless basically every day, coolish at times, and dry as a bone. No exciting weather, no convection, no rain, nothing to bring life: just feels dead.

And I know many people who love love love that weather. When we have weeks of high humidity and regular rainfall, I can tell people don't like it. They mention how it is "yucky" outside or something, and then when the first day in fall comes where a dreaded front sweeps through, there are immediately exclamations of how beautiful it is outside. I don't get it. I LOVE the heat and humidity. I love going outside and it feels like a sauna and when I breathe, it feels like the moisture in the air is soothing my airways. I love how it feels like a warm blanket around me. And yes, it is "yucky" if you are wearing anything more than shorts and a t-shirt (Unfortunately, where I currently work and go to school, you can't wear shorts and t-shirt all the time, so it frustratingly is hard to enjoy that weather).

What these people basically are wanting is weather that is as close to a mundane, air conditioned, 73 degree, 30% humidity building. Unrealistic. To constantly long for weather like that is like expecting a bird to be disciplined enough to use a litter box.
Quoting 586. Patrap:

A long time wu member and friend of many, needs some uplifting thoughts and healing
juju prayers.

His wife was injured just last evening.


Thank you.





Prayers their way Pat....

We survived Matthew... still no power, no cable...water plant ok so that is good. Gas has been checked in our neighborhood and is clear... I have gas water heater and gas stove so at least we can shower comfortably and I can cook like normal. Have a small generator to keep fridge going and to recharge electronics when need be (but we cut it off at night and don't run again till morning... trees in our yard standing.... cleaned up 6 or more bags of loose stuff and a huge pile of large limbs.... tree came down over road at neighbors and took out power line. it will be a while I am thinking before they come to repair it.... the trees I thought would come down stayed up....the ones I didn't even pay attention to came down.... it was hairiest from 7am to 10am here in Charleston.... we did venture out yesterday to ck on ability to my MIL back to her place Downtown.... didn't get far before we simply turned around and left.... too much water even for the hubby's high profile pick up truck with large tires.... hit john's island.... flooding in same places as last October but the trees down were more like mini warzones..... son's school fared well....no damage to building.... just lots of debris and fallen trees..... Kiawah Island will not be open even to contractors until Tuesday... (we received word via email)...Folly Island still closed except to residents and contractors....
Quoting 636. thetwilightzone:



i think it safe too say that hurricane season is now closed for the USA after mat




wind shear is taking over if we do see any more storms it will be in the Caribbean but even that is getting slim at this point

I expect at least 1 more storm maybe 2 by the end of the season.
Yes maybe Caribbean and GOM then out in the Atlantic...
Now to say if Florida will get hit again there's no clue at this time.
Yes lots of shear out there right now but look for it to relax after
what ever is left of Matthew get's out and or dissipates....

Taco :o)
Quoting 636. thetwilightzone:



i think it safe too say that hurricane season is now closed for the USA after mat




wind shear is taking over if we do see any more storms it will be in the Caribbean but even that is getting slim at this point


Look at those steering patterns. We could see something that forms in the western Carribean impact the US before the season is out.

But Cape Verde season is pretty much closed for the year now.
With extreme rainfall, significant surge, and still strong winds to hurricane force in a number of areas, as well as estimated damage in the billions and a number of people dead, I think that Matthew was a bit of an overachiever for a hurricane that didn't make landfall.

It could have been much worse, but it was still bad.

I saw some video from winds in Daytona Beach, it get pretty dang strong there for the SW quadrant of a hurricane not making landfall. Radar velocity data showed estimated 90 knots or so over the Daytona Beach area during the worst winds, but it showed 120-130 knots over a good sized region not too far offshore in the north, northeast, and east eyewall. Imagine how much worse the surge and wind damage could have been.
Quoting 632. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It got pretty serious here last night. More siding was ripped off the house, several more trees fell (including one that fell about 3 ft away from my bedroom...phew), we heard a few transformers blow from a little distance away, and our street light was tilted. It's a nice day outside right now and the immediate yard/neighborhood road flooding has gone down. Biggest story now is the rising rivers, with most well above flood stage and near record levels.

Matthew is definitely the most memorable hurricane here in NC since Isabel.


That must have come to a bit of a surprise to many in NC since models were shifting it further and further offshore as it was approaching FL just less than 24 hours before reaching the Carolinas. This should remind people, that even lower end hurricanes are no laughing matter, because since Matthew's core remained offshore, wind speeds and surge were category 1 in most areas and few areas saw surge and winds like a category 2.
643. tj175
Quoting 621. PlazaRed:


I seem to remember a few years ago they were talking about putting huge pumps on the sea bed at the entrance to the Caribbean to pump to the surface cool water in order to prevent hurricanes from entering the area.



SMH thats crazy but they did try the cloud seeding project in the 1940 and 50's and they said that it caused a hurricane to change direction and head towards land. I think people need to leave mother nature alone, PERIOD.
Quoting 641. Jedkins01:

With extreme rainfall, significant surge, and still strong winds to hurricane force in a number of areas, as well as estimated damage in the billions and a number of people dead, I think that Matthew was a bit of an overachiever for a hurricane that didn't make landfall.

It could have been much worse, but it was still bad.

I saw some video from winds in Daytona Beach, it get pretty dang strong there for the SW quadrant of a hurricane not making landfall. Radar velocity data showed estimated 90 knots or so over the Daytona Beach area during the worst winds, but it showed 120-130 knots over a good sized region not too far offshore in the north, northeast, and east eyewall. Imagine how much worse the surge and wind damage could have been.


I agree....had the US taken a hit like western Haiti or Eastern Cuba....or even the Bahamas..... it would have been a different story.... what saved SC from Hugo was the fast forward speed of the storm (and it was bad enough with that)....I couldn't imagine what Matthew would have done with a direct hit at Charleston only moving 11 or 12 mph.... I would not have chosen to stay had it not been sweeping the coast
Quoting 636. thetwilightzone:



i think it safe too say that hurricane season is now closed for the USA after mat




wind shear is taking over if we do see any more storms it will be in the Caribbean but even that is getting slim at this point

Current shear means nothing in terms of what it may look like 2 weeks from now. We could go back in time with this map and I could reference it to say Invest 97L would die in the central Atlantic because of the unfavorable upper-level winds. And I would be wrong, because 97L became Category 5 Hurricane Matthew.
646. beell
Georgia Power
Affected Customers: 276,364
Last Updated: Oct 8, 8:50 AM

Affected Customers: 244,153
Last Updated: Oct 8, 2:58 PM

Affected Customers: 228,699
Last Updated: Oct 8, 5:06 PM

Affected Customers: 191,549
Last Updated: Oct 9, 1:15 PM

Link

Florida Power & Light
459,180
Last update:10/08/2016 08:00 AM

406,240
Last update:10/08/2016 02:00 PM

361,390
Last update:10/08/2016 05:00 PM

198,010
Last update:10/09/2016 12:00 PM

Link

South Carolina Electric & Gas
192,332
Last updated: 10/8/2016 9:10 AM EDT

281,774
Last updated: 10/8/2016 3:10 PM EDT

260,575
Last updated: 10/8/2016 5:20 PM EDT

171,361
Last updated: 10/9/2016 1:30 PM EDT

Link

Duke Energy
TOTAL 373,030
NC 222,488
SC 150,542
Data displayed as of: Oct 8, 2:53 PM

TOTAL 507,545
NC 350,883
SC 156,662
Data displayed as of: Oct 8, 5:12 PM

TOTAL 616,701
NC 470,612
SC 146,089
Data displayed as of: Oct 9, 1:14 PM

Link

Dominion Power
*North Carolina 51,925
*Richmond Metro / Tri-Cities 24,734
*Southeastern Virginia 192,595
*selected areas
Last Updated: Today at 1:30 PM
Link

=========
1,446,875 (est)
Quoting 641. Jedkins01:

Matthew will likely be retired from the hurricane naming system it most certainly will be the only one this season unless there is still one last monster out there somewhere yet to come
Quoting 642. Jedkins01:



That must have come to a bit of a surprise to many in NC since models were shifting it further and further offshore as it was approaching FL just less than 24 hours before reaching the Carolinas. This should remind people, that even lower end hurricanes are no laughing matter, because since Matthew's core remained offshore, wind speeds and surge were category 1 in most areas and few areas saw surge and winds like a category 2.

People here are very proactive. My family went and bought food when Matthew was still in the Caribbean and the forecast cone showed it approaching NC as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Stores were already running low on generators then. It did look like impacts would be minimal when the cone shifted offshore at first, but the track shifted back north as the cyclone was passing Florida. Everybody was prepared, but I think it definitely still surprised us lol.
Quoting 646. beell:

Georgia Power
Affected Customers: 276,364
Last Updated: Oct 8, 8:50 AM

Affected Customers: 244,153
Last Updated: Oct 8, 2:58 PM

Affected Customers: 228,699
Last Updated: Oct 8, 5:06 PM

Affected Customers: 191,549
Last Updated: Oct 9, 1:15 PM

Link

Florida Power & Light
459,180
Last update:10/08/2016 08:00 AM

406,240
Last update:10/08/2016 02:00 PM

361,390
Last update:10/08/2016 05:00 PM

198,010
Last update:10/09/2016 12:00 PM

Link

South Carolina Electric & Gas
192,332
Last updated: 10/8/2016 9:10 AM EDT

281,774
Last updated: 10/8/2016 3:10 PM EDT

260,575
Last updated: 10/8/2016 5:20 PM EDT

171,361
Last updated: 10/9/2016 1:30 PM EDT

Link

Duke Energy
TOTAL 373,030
NC 222,488
SC 150,542
Data displayed as of: Oct 8, 2:53 PM

TOTAL 507,545
NC 350,883
SC 156,662
Data displayed as of: Oct 8, 5:12 PM

TOTAL 616,701
NC 470,612
SC 146,089
Data displayed as of: Oct 9, 1:14 PM

Link

Dominion Power
*North Carolina 51,925
*Richmond Metro / Tri-Cities 24,734
*Southeastern Virginia 192,595
*selected areas
Last Updated: Today at 1:30 PM
Link

=========
1,446,875 (est)


We are still out.... will be for a bit.... every time I see any of the repair guys, we offer them water and food.... they are killing themselves out there.... least we can do
Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Matthew will likely be retired from the hurricane naming system it most certainly will be the only one this season unless there is still one last monster out there somewhere yet to come


Most likely. Joaquin got retired for less than what Mathew has done.
Quoting 628. MahFL:



Well for Florida the forecast was pretty accurate, the track forecast was for the eye to remain just offshore, which it did. If the eye had come onshore the damage would have been ten times in Florida.


Absolutely, people don't realize just much the impacts increase from outside the eyewall/inner core to inside of it. Here's a good new article from the NWS that does the math on how much more destructive hurricanes become as they get stronger:

"When asked to rate potential damage from a category one hurricane to a category two or three storm most people's results are often linear in increasing damage.

However, since the potential damage increase from category to category is logarithmic then small increases in wind strength can dramatically increase damage.

When the cost from hurricane related damages are normalized (normalization takes into account inflation, changes in population, and changes in wealth to arrive at a common level for comparison) the result shows an eighth-power increase1 in damages from category to category.

What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 2^8 power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph (121 km/h) to 150 mph (241 km/h) is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256)
."

Link to the full artice:

Link


I would DEFINITELY suggest bookmarking this article next time you consider staying for a hurricane, or if you know people who don't like to leave.
Quoting 650. FunnelVortex:



Most likely. Joaquin got retired for less than what Mathew has done.


I am still having a hard time wrapping my head around the number of deaths just on the islands.... we have a radio...but no tv.... our antenna isn't even picking anything up.... guess all the main ones are down or damaged... our updates are a bit intermittent with no cable and no tv....
the two events that stick out the most for me this season is
the system not named over LA with the massive flooding and Matthew
other than that we have had a fair season overall
and the numbers have crept up too where they were expected
in the preseason forecasts

52 days remains of the season we could still see 2 or 3 more systems before the end maybe
The news media here in SE FL Palm Beaches whipped up extreme hysteria about this Hurricane and I mean extreme.
One "weather" reporter on WPBF 25 blatantly stated that the storm would become a Cat 5. Right after that the director of the NHC stated essentially that predictions like that were not necessary. SLAM. Also this same station showed a map of where the power was likely to go out. Again they got put in their place by the VP of FPL saying there was no software for news stations to predict this. SLAM. I am not surprised that people in FL do not pay attention to Hurricane weather reports because of this. I track weather here and on the NHC site.
What hurricane affected the most states? The most people?
Quoting 650. FunnelVortex:



Most likely. Joaquin got retired for less than what Mathew has done.
jo got removed because of that ship it took under and rightly so
Quoting 652. tiggeriffic:



I am still having a hard time wrapping my head around the number of deaths just on the islands.... we have a radio...but no tv.... our antenna isn't even picking anything up.... guess all the main ones are down or damaged... our updates are a bit intermittent with no cable and no tv....


Sadly, I don't find the numbers too hard to believe. Haiti is a third world country completely unprepared for a storm like Matthew.
The forecast for this storm was mediocre.
659. Tcwx2
Earl may be retired. I see two being retired unless we get another monster. What will they be replaced with I wonder? I hope it's not like Rina with Rita. Any ideas? Einstein & Mario?
Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Matthew will likely be retired from the hurricane naming system it most certainly will be the only one this season unless there is still one last monster out there somewhere yet to come
Btw I've just recently been seeing some of the damage images from Matthew in Haiti and it is mind blowing :(

It seems like Haiti never gets a break from extreme disasters :(

Quoting 658. nickharger:

The forecast for this storm was mediocre.
I'd like to respectfully disagree. The models throughout had a pretty good handle on the storm from the beginning and so did the NHC. They were spot on with the track throughout, the only thing that was a little off was the strength guidance, but other than that it was about as good of a forecast as you can get for a tropical storm.
662. beell
Quoting 649. tiggeriffic:



We are still out.... will be for a bit.... every time I see any of the repair guys, we offer them water and food.... they are killing themselves out there.... least we can do


If those guys got a dollar every time a citizen asked; "When is my power coming back on?", lol

I admire those guys. Many from out of state. Pressure to help put a community back together as quickly as possible, pressure to get the meters spinning (if it ain't turnin', we ain't earnin'), and the requirement to do it safely in less than ideal conditions.

Cheers!



Matthew was also very bad in the Bahamas:

"NINETY five per cent of the buildings in the Eight Mile Rock and Holmes Rock areas in Grand Bahama received significant damage from Hurricane Matthew on Thursday night and Friday morning, Brenda Colebrooke, the island administrator for West Grand Bahama, said.

#
"Portions of the homes were blown out and roofs were completely blown off," she told The Tribune shortly before 9am on Friday as authorities began making initial assessments of the damage the category 4 storm caused in Grand Bahama."
Quoting 657. FunnelVortex:



Sadly, I don't find the numbers too hard to believe. Haiti is a third world country completely unprepared for a storm like Matthew.


I understand it...in that respect....but am only able to get minimal information intermittently.... first number I hear is 40something....then in the 100s...then 400s then over 800....last information I was able to hear was 843.... not sure after that...and that was only Haiti.... also still getting all of our stuff wrapped up from after the fact....
Quoting 620. elioe:



During this week, there were a few nights with freezing temperatures. On mornings, frost deposition was visible on nearby roofs. Coldest was -5 degrees Celsius. For the next 10 days, forecast lows hover between +2 C and +4 C. After that, GFS shows the first snowfall of the winter.



There has actually been a lot of snow in various places sense August
Quoting 658. nickharger:

The forecast for this storm was mediocre.


will disagree..... Charleston SC got exactly what they were calling for within 10-20 miles....and within 10-20mph winds....and as per the time.... it was right on time too.... they said 8am....our worst was from 7amto10am... in my book, that might have well been a gps guiding that sucker in....
Quoting 644. tiggeriffic:



I agree....had the US taken a hit like western Haiti or Eastern Cuba....or even the Bahamas..... it would have been a different story.... what saved SC from Hugo was the fast forward speed of the storm (and it was bad enough with that)....I couldn't imagine what Matthew would have done with a direct hit at Charleston only moving 11 or 12 mph.... I would not have chosen to stay had it not been sweeping the coast


The total devastation north of Charleston all the way to Charlotte NC makes me wonder what you mean by saved?
anyone see baha check in from Bahamas
Quoting 658. nickharger:

The forecast for this storm was mediocre.


No it wasn't. It was well stressed that only a slight tweaking of actual atmospheric features in terms of steering could have made a huge difference in impacts to FL.

Forecasters stressed this many times, and if you didn't pay attention to it, that's your fault.

If you don't like forecasting, then get started on better research to make better computer models.
Quoting 668. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

anyone see baha check in from Bahamas


Not yet and was wondering about him....

Taco :o)
Quoting 639. taco2me61:


I expect at least 1 more storm maybe 2 by the end of the season.
Yes maybe Caribbean and GOM then out in the Atlantic...
Now to say if Florida will get hit again there's no clue at this time.
Yes lots of shear out there right now but look for it to relax after
what ever is left of Matthew get's out and or dissipates....

Taco :o)
673. elioe
Quoting 650. FunnelVortex:



Most likely. Joaquin got retired for less than what Mathew has done.


Was it USA or the Bahamas, which requested the retirement of Joaquin? Nevertheless, I think that both will want Matthew retired.
Quoting 667. reef58:



The total devastation north of Charleston all the way to Charlotte NC makes me wonder what you mean by saved?


had the storm moved at 11 or 12 mph instead of in the 20mph....the deaths would have been what they were in Haiti from Matthew.... the actual number of deaths from Hugo was minimal comparatively speaking....and I had friends who rode out hugo from awendaw.... not downplaying hugo....saying that if Matthew had hit dead on like hugo and only moved at the 11 or 12 mph that matthew was...the devestation would have surpassed hugo by a landslide
Quoting 659. Tcwx2:

Earl may be retired. I see two being retired unless we get another monster. What will they be replaced with I wonder? I hope it's not like Rina with Rita. Any ideas? Einstein & Mario?

I don't think Earl will be retired because Mexico doesnt ask much to retire for example Emily,Ernesto,Alex and Matthew(2010) and so on.
Quoting 648. TropicalAnalystwx13:


People here are very proactive. My family went and bought food when Matthew was still in the Caribbean and the forecast cone showed it approaching NC as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Stores were already running low on generators then. It did look like impacts would be minimal when the cone shifted offshore at first, but the track shifted back north as the cyclone was passing Florida. Everybody was prepared, but I think it definitely still surprised us lol.


That's good to hear, I don't think people in FL were as proactive, and hearing about people that stayed on the beach front tells me there could have been a few hundred injured and maybe 50-100 dead if the hurricane made landfall in FL while still a major. I've seen video footage of people in low lying beach from homes on the NE Florida coast freaking out as surge began to hit and and damage their structures. If it made a direct hit, surge would have been twice as high, faster moving, more destructive, and then people trying to seek higher ground would be at risk of injury or death from category 3 winds.

A lot of people on the FL coast did evacuate, and most people didn't stay that were at risk of deadly surge, but some did stay, and could have died if it made a direct hit.
Quoting 655. lightningjolt:

What hurricane affected the most states? The most people?


Probably Donna. Georges in 1998 made landfall in seven different countries.
Quoting 676. Jedkins01:



That's good to hear, I don't think people in FL were as proactive, and hearing about people that stayed on the beach front tells me there could have been several hundred injured and maybe 50-100 dead if the hurricane made landfall in FL while still a major. I've seen video footage of people in low lying beach from homes on the NE Florida coast freaking out as surge began to hit and and damage their structures. If it made a direct hit, surge would have been twice as high, faster moving, more destructive, and then people trying to seek higher ground would be at risk of injury or death from category 3 winds.

A lot of people on the FL coast did evacuate, and most people didn't stay that were at risk of deadly surge, but some did stay, and could have died if it made a direct hit.


This is precisely what I was trying to say earlier.... the fact that Matthew skirted instead of coming straight in.... no way I would have stayed in Charleston (I am inland a bit from the river and coast) for matthew had it moved straight in like hugo.... and do believe that if it hit head on in Charleston like hugo did...the damage would have been worse than hugo because of forward speed.... had hugo moved in at 11 or 12 mph it would have had an entirely different outcome in Charleston ....
We survived here in St. Augustine! Storm surge got us good, especially at the beaches. A new inlet was created near Marineland just South of Matanzas Inlet. Downtown is recovering and places were opening back up today. The beaches will take alittle longer.
Quoting 655. lightningjolt:

What hurricane affected the most states? The most people?

Donna While Ike affected quite alot of countries.
Before the storm hit the forecasters here called for 6ft to 8ft. surge, worse case 10ft. That is exactly what happen. If center moved 50 miles East we would of had that maximum surge. People had 2 ft. to 4ft of water in their homes and businesses. The evacuation requests were perfect. Those are the areas that got hit the hardest.
Quoting 681. weatherguy03:

Before the storm hit the forecaters here called for 6ft to 8ft. surge, worse case 10ft. That is exactly what happen. If center moved 50 miles East we would of had that maximum surge. People had 2 ft. to 4ft of water in their homes and businesses. The evacuation requests were perfect. Those are the areas that got hit the hardest.


they called for Charleston to get average of 3-5....worst areas 8....... we got just over 6..... pretty dead on if you ask me.... lots of DT flooded.... they always do with extreme rain... I thank God it hit at precisely low tide instead of high.... it would have been a different story here surge wise
Quoting 679. weatherguy03:

We survived here in St. Augustine! Storm surge got us good, especially at the beaches. A new inlet was created near Marineland just South of Matanzas Inlet. Downtown is recovering and places were opening back up today. The beaches will take alittle longer.


Will the state fill it? They could call it Matthew Inlet.
Quoting 683. wxgeek723:



Will the state fill it? They could call it Matthew Inlet.


LOL. I think they will. There are homes near there.
TS Nicole's starting to get that "look" back.


Quoting 664. tiggeriffic:



I understand it...in that respect....but am only able to get minimal information intermittently.... first number I hear is 40something....then in the 100s...then 400s then over 800....last information I was able to hear was 843.... not sure after that...and that was only Haiti.... also still getting all of our stuff wrapped up from after the fact....


Considering the quality of housing, the fact that the people were actually too poor to move and the ferocity of the wind and water, anything under a 1000 indicates a miraculous supernatural protection. The death toll could have been as high a 95 percent.

Mathew will be retired no doubt about it..
ok... I am out for a bit...gotta turn off the generator to cool and refuel.... will bbl ... wifi doesn't work without electricity lol...


Strong early season Pacific jet forecast to undercut and plow into the West Coast next week. Forecast here in the SF Bay Area calling for first soaking rains of the year from Thursday through the weekend with surface winds ramping up. Euro model even wetter than the GFS above which shows our area in the right entrance region of a 170 mph jet max. There may also be two EPac tropical systems out there which may enhance the available moisture and energy.
Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Matthew will likely be retired from the hurricane naming system it most certainly will be the only one this season unless there is still one last monster out there somewhere yet to come


You jinxed the remainder of the season now...
Quoting 637. opal92nwf:

Hate the weather here in the FL Panhandle. Might as well be living out in the deserts of Southern California. For the last 2 weeks it's been cloudless basically every day, coolish at times, and dry as a bone. No exciting weather, no convection, no rain, nothing to bring life: just feels dead.

And I know many people who love love love that weather. When we have weeks of high humidity and regular rainfall, I can tell people don't like it. They mention how it is "yucky" outside or something, and then when the first day in fall comes where a dreaded front sweeps through, there are immediately exclamations of how beautiful it is outside. I don't get it. I LOVE the heat and humidity. I love going outside and it feels like a sauna and when I breathe, it feels like the moisture in the air is soothing my airways. I love how it feels like a warm blanket around me. And yes, it is "yucky" if you are wearing anything more than shorts and a t-shirt (Unfortunately, where I currently work and go to school, you can't wear shorts and t-shirt all the time, so it frustratingly is hard to enjoy that weather).

What these people basically are wanting is weather that is as close to a mundane, air conditioned, 73 degree, 30% humidity building. Unrealistic. To constantly long for weather like that is like expecting a bird to be disciplined enough to use a litter box.

Same, but I'm stuck here in Toronto
Quoting 688. tiggeriffic:

ok... I am out for a bit...gotta turn off the generator to cool and refuel.... will bbl ... wifi doesn't work without electricity lol...


Please stay safe and check back soon sweetie

Taco :o)
Quoting 628. MahFL:



Well for Florida the forecast was pretty accurate, the track forecast was for the eye to remain just offshore, which it did. If the eye had come onshore the damage would have been ten times in Florida.
The last two NHC forecast tracks before passing the Space Coast each made slight adjustments east, the final forecast issued before closest passing of the center was about 38 miles east of Patrick AFB. The outer eyewall remained offshore as it passed here. I lost power after the center passed, when the winds shifted to the NNW. The power to my house runs a few houses down to some wastewater pumping infrastructure that needs to be visited by a mobile generator in emergency conditions, so we are relatively high priority. The power was out at my home for about 12 hours, neighbors across the street waited another 12 hours, some nearby neighborhoods until late yesterday. Internet flickered on last night, went down again, and was restored this morning.

Damage in this area was less than 1995 Erin, Frances, Jeanne, less than 1999 Irene, Floyd and 2008 Fay. Beach access structures that were completely swept away by Floyd seemed to have survived, some with minor damage, others intact. Erosion to dunes was moderate but no breaches that I observed. A few homes experienced some roof damage, especially a couple of businesses along A1A, most damage was due to downed trees and limbs. I had quite a mess in my own yard, packed with trees, but no damage to my home. We've cleared all the big downed limbs and debris, all that is left is some tree-trimming and yard work.

Considering the dire forecasts and real possibility of landfall here we feel very fortunate.
Quoting 668. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

anyone see baha check in from Bahamas


Yes she checked in the other day. Yesterday morning I believe.. said she was in a Starbucks...
Quoting 670. taco2me61:



Not yet and was wondering about him....

Taco :o)


Her!!!
Quoting 658. nickharger:

The forecast for this storm was mediocre.


Ridiculous. The NHC nailed the track well inside their own margin of error and warned all hazards (potential major landfall, widespread surge, freshwater flooding). Anyone wanting to literally bet their life on calling the path of the eyewall down to 5-10 miles is an idiot who hopefully won't be in the position again, especially if they have dependents. If the eyewall was a distinct color in visible light people on the beach in Florida would have been able to see it inside the horizon in many places. That's how close a shave this was.
Just was wondering why everyone said the forecast was eye for eye, yet it never turned like they kept projecting. This was supposed to turn at every major city all the way up the coast. Just a comment because I saved the models each day since the 24th. It is all great to slap everyone's back after the fact, but at least try do it when it is at least 50% right! Just an opinion don't want to start a war or anything.
Good afternoon from Deland FL. We got power back last night and internet service just came up. I was surprised I had battery power for computer but AT&T server service went down, so no phones either. My parents evacuated from New Smyrna Beach to here and we are so lucky the storm jogged east when it came by. My personal weather station had winds up to 80 mph before it was damaged. It still recorded rain and we only received 3.8 inches here. We have big trees down but none hit the house. My parents live on wooded 4 acres, they have lots of trees down, had to chain saw our way down the driveway to get access to the house, no trees on the house or windows broken! They are flooded up to the house, they live in a coastal hammock in the storm surge zone, but built above the 500 year flood mark. I cannot believe how lucky we are, god was looking after us. Is Matthew done? last time I could get access to computer it was looping.
Quoting 685. CybrTeddy:

TS Nicole's starting to get that "look" back.



models show major status I believe it will be
15L/TS/N/C0

Quoting 672. Abacosurf:



Don't worry, guys. We will have a HAARP hurricane to close out October. Thus, postponing the election. The real October surprise!
Forgot one other thing, was this storm not suppose to do a loop and come back to the south? Just another part of what I find very interesting. Seems that if one popular model says something the other's jump on the bandwagon!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 683. wxgeek723:



Will the state fill it? They could call it Matthew Inlet.
Think there are going to be a lot of Matthew inlets here in nc
Quoting 702. NEWilmNCTP:

Forgot one other thing, was this storm not suppose to do a loop and come back to the south? Just another part of what I find very interesting. Seems that if one popular model says something the other's jump on the bandwagon!


it showed a loop it also show what it is doing now
models sometimes show many different paths and outcomes
it is not meant to show final destination or impacts
just a guidance to likely outcomes
Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Matthew will likely be retired from the hurricane naming system it most certainly will be the only one this season unless there is still one last monster out there somewhere yet to come


Good afternoon Keep,

I don't know what the criteria is death wise in countries that participate but this was a comment from the Doc last week...

44. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
1:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2016
22 +
Quoting 24. islander101010:

why was gordon 1994 not retired in haiti it killed over 500 people verified maybe up to 2000? political red tape most likely.



Haiti never sends reps to the annual WMO meeting where names are retired. A rep of an affected nation has to request retirement in order for the name to be retired. I guess there is no travel budget for meteorologists in Haiti.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 689. BayFog:



Strong early season Pacific jet forecast to undercut and plow into the West Coast next week. Forecast here in the SF Bay Area calling for first soaking rains of the year from Thursday through the weekend with surface winds ramping up. Euro model even wetter than the GFS above which shows our area in the right entrance region of a 170 mph jet max. There may also be two EPac tropical systems out there which may enhance the available moisture and energy.


Been in the hospital for 10 days, just got home yesterday....hope Soo Cal can get some of that rainfall also! Last rain was a couple weeks back from decaying/unwinding moisture from a Pacific Hurricane whose name escapes me at the moment........but it was a nice 1.5"
Watching all this from northern England, I can only thank God that for all your sakes Matthew did not make a landfall as a Cat 2 or 3; the results would have been appalling. It's a relief to see it moving out into the Atlantic at last and starting to dissipate, although - from some of the reports of the weather they're still getting in NC and Virginia - it seems to be taking its time about it. The event is also far from over, as you have rivers in NC and VA which are in flood already from all of the rain from Matthew and are not expected to peak until Monday or Tuesday; some will remain in flood until Thursday. I'm just so relieved for you all that this has not turned out as bad as it might have been. That's not to minimise in any way the extent of the clear up you now face and the grief suffered to the families of those who've died or been seriously injured.

From the point of view of us in the UK, these major systems are always a concern because of the risk that even after they have ceased to be hurricanes, their moisture will be entrained into the depressions that hit these islands, particularly over the Autumn and Winter. This means we end up with very strong winds and prolonged and heavy rain, such as we had over much of northern England last November-December. Thus, now that Matthew seems no longer likely to "loop de loop", his remnants could be on track to come our way in about 8 days. Similarly the remnants of Nicole, which appears to be reforming and may intensify overnight, also appear that they might be heading our way, likewise in about 8-10 days. Full Moon is on the 16th October, and the highest Spring tides of the season will be on the 17th-19th, so I am keeping a close eye on how things develop with both of these storms and their remnants. I also agree with those WU regulars who think that your main hurricane season is far from over and you could still get several more named storms before the end of November. There is a lot of additional warmth in the Nth Atlantic this year, and all that energy and moisture has to go somewhere.

Anyways, very best wishes to all of you from your friends and distant cousins on this side of the Pond, wishing you also a speedy clear up and continued safety from the flooding during these end days of Matthew.
712. vis0
It seems to me that the warmer atmosphere  is creating more shear where nature has to balance cooler versus. warmer (vice versa) areas.

This causes Ts to have to "fight" through this added shear to become cat 3 hurricanes.

So we either have blobs with cat 1 (maybe cat 2) energy or skip cat 2 all together and jump to cat3+ hurricanes that THEN use that differential temperature (created by the excess warmer atmos v2.0 as in  the balancing the old cooler against the new warmer) thus creating the new  shear as a protector to the spinning systems. 

   Hurricanes at cat3+ can last longer when interacting with their "nemeses" as land or detrimental shear  'cause the new shear around the cat3 acts like those back support velcro strap belts.

As the land tries to disturb the cat 3's circulation/ spin the shear now being tightened/reinforced around the cat3 hurricane allows the cane to maintain its circular flow by redirecting the disturbed flow caused by interacting with land  BACK into the dominant strong clean circular flow therefore that land caused disturb flow disappears/is "force blended" into the cat 3's tighten by new shear circulation and hurricane reacts by doing lop de loop or bounce de bounce as MATTHEW did from North Florida's shore SE . N. Carolina

BROUGHT TO YOU BY All-Temperature Cheer
(yes repeating that joke as re-posting this skinny "thesis" from 3 months ago) that backpack blob ??? read a mini hint on my zilly blog cmmnt#500 from my nutty brain.

TWI replies:: yer disturd

on another note, we can give monetary or supplies help to poor areas but new ideas are needed to break bad old cycles.  One new idea (actually an idea from the 1970s) that finally can become reality due to a Finnish gentleman that invent a very strong resin 5-6 yrs ago)

The idea is on my zilly blog since it had to be removed from Dr. Masters blogbyte**  'cause things still are (were) too serious yet if you need an idea as to help build homes for poor countries as Haiti to get the luvly Haitian people going towards a prosperous life (slowly but surly) try building homes as i post that cmmnt also on my zilly blog there cmmnt#497

**(was on pg 7 or 8 of this blog, i gave the okay to remove if MODs
thought it might take away from the seriousness of helping those in need
NOW)