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Hurricane Matthew Floodwaters Slowly Recede; Hurricane Watch for Nicole in Bermuda

By: Jeff Masters 4:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2016

Multiple rivers continue rampage above major flood stage in North Carolina as the state reels from a multi-billion dollar flood disaster wrought by the torrential rains from Hurricane Matthew over the weekend. At least 14 deaths have been reported across the state, according to weather.com. More than 1,500 people were stranded by high flood waters in the town of Lumberton on Monday (some fleeing to rooftops), and had to be rescued by helicopter and boat. More than 650,000 customers remained without electricity on Tuesday morning in the Southeast U.S., with about half of those in North Carolina and Virginia.


Figure 1. A boat passes a church in Nichols, S.C., Monday, Oct. 10, 2016. (AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt) 

Several more days of flooding coming
Most rivers in North Carolina have crested and are gradually falling in the wake of Matthew’s torrential rains, but some will remain above major flood stage for several more days. The flooding is the state’s worst since catastrophic Hurricane Floyd in September 1999, and in some areas is the worst on record. Several of the peak crests on North Carolina rivers this week from Mathew:

The Black River near Tomahawk crested at a record 27.92’ on Monday evening. Old record: 27.1’ on Sept. 18, 1999.

The Neuse River at Smithfield crested at a record 29.09’ on Monday; it is expected to fall below major flood stage by Wednesday morning. Old record: 27.4’ on September 8, 1996.

The Little River at Manchester crested at a record 31.73’ on Monday; it fell below major flood stage on Tuesday. Old record: 29.0’ on Sept. 19, 1945.

The Cape Fear River at W.O. Huske Lock crested at 68.4’ on Monday; it is expected to fall below major flood stage on Wednesday. This was its 2nd highest crest on record, behind 75.5’ on Sept. 22, 1945.

The Lumber River at Lumberton crested at a record (and unknown) height above 24.39’ on Monday, and is not expected to fall below is previous record flood height until Sunday. Old record: 20.48’ on Sept. 11, 2004


Figure 2. The Lumber River is experiencing record flooding that is expected to last all week. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Matthew’s impact elsewhere
Recovery efforts continue in the other regions hard-hit by Matthew, including Haiti (over 1,000 dead), The Bahamas (most costly hurricane in their history), Cuba (severe wind and storm surge damage to the eastern tip) and the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina (twelve dead and billions in damage.) Matthew is the most expensive Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Sandy of 2012, and the deadliest since 2005, when both Katrina and Stan killed over 1,000 people. See our post from Monday for much more detail on Matthew’s impacts and records.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Nicole.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for Bermuda for Nicole
A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are up for Bermuda as a strengthening Tropical Storm Nicole heads towards a Thursday morning encounter with the island. Satellite imagery late Tuesday morning showed that Nicole has become much more organized since Monday, with a symmetric cloud pattern and an eye beginning to appear. The latest SHIPS model forecast diagnosed that wind shear had fallen sharply to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, with mid-level relative humidity levels that were decent for development, in the 50 - 60% range. Nicole is passing over the near-record-warm waters of the subtropical North Atlantic, with sea-surface temperatures of 29°C (84°F)— roughly 2°C above average. Record warm waters in this region helped boost Hurricane Gaston to Category 3 strength at latitude 30°N in late August. The 00Z Tuesday runs of our top four track models--the GFS, European, HWRF and UKMET models--all brought Nicole 40 - 90 miles west of Bermuda on Thursday morning. Our top three intensity models, the HWRF, SHIPS and LGEM, all predicted Category 1 hurricane intensity for Nicole at that time, as did the official NHC forecast as of 11 am EDT Tuesday. The SHIPS model in its 12Z Tuesday run was giving Nicole a 22% chance of rapidly intensifying into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane by Wednesday morning. Given the low shear and record warm waters Nicole has to work with, I expect Nicole will be a Category 2 hurricane on Thursday morning when it make its closest approach to Bermuda.


Figure 4. Typhoon Songda as seen at 00:45 UTC October 11, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Watch for development in the Southwest Caribbean early next week
A broad area low pressure is expected to form in the waters of the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua early next week. A tropical depression form could form there next week, according to a number of the 70 forecasts of the GFS and European model ensembles. It is too early to be confident of a direction of motion for this system, but a movement to the northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras appears to be the most likely track, with a possible motion to the north over the central or western Caribbean later in the week.

Ex-Typhoon Songda to drench Northwest U.S.
In the Northwest Pacific, Category 3 Typhoon Songda is heading northeast at 13 mph towards Alaska, and is expected to transition to a very wet extratropical storm with 45 mph winds on Thursday, when it will be a few hundred miles south of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Ex-Songda will then catch a ride with the jet stream and arrive off the coast of Washington on Saturday, when the storm is expected to intensify into a powerful low pressure system with a central pressure near 960 mb, bringing strong winds and heavy rains to the coasts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. Rainfall of 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts over 12 inches, is possible western Washington south to northwestern California this week, due to a series of heavy rainstorms which include ex-Songa this weekend. East of the Cascades, rainfall could total 1 to 3 inches in the valleys and 3 to 7 inches in the foothills of the northern Rockies.

Jeff Masters

Flooding on the Neuse River in Raleigh
Flooding on the Neuse River in Raleigh
The Neuse River Trail which follows close to the river is flooded over after the rainfall of Hurricane Matthew.
Matthew vs Detour Signs
Matthew vs Detour Signs

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you!
Thank you gentlemen !!! Hopefully we don't have another hurricane or tropical system in the carribean we know where they go this time of year
Thanks Dr Masters - we're all hoping for a less rapid intensification here thanks. Recon almost there.
From last blog:

Quoting 266. Grothar:




cat 3


Could even make a run for cat 4 status as she'll have 2 days of favourable conditions and models show her strengthening despite higher shear after Bermuda - likely due to baroclinic forcing, before becoming extratropical.

Certainly looks like she'll be quite mean once she gets that eye sorted:



We have a recon plane going into Nicole now:

You guys see the latest GFS showing a potential major gulf storm ten days out? Only one model run, but shows that 'cane season isn't done yet.
All models are really becoming more and more aggressive with development in the Western Caribbean come early next week. This potentially poses a significant threat to the Gulf Coast of the US down the road.
Quoting 6. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

You guys see the latest GFS showing a potential major gulf storm ten days out? Only one model run, but shows that 'cane season isn't done yet.


CMC too
Quoting 2. nrtiwlnvragn:

Does Recon find hurricane Nicole?


I believe, the chances are very high for a ~65mph, but minimal HURR not out of the question.
Quoting 8. StormTrackerScott:



CMC too


interesting
Quoting 8. StormTrackerScott:



CMC too

It has been popping for the last couple of days. I don't think anyone has mentioned it too much due to the cleanup with Matthew.
Potentially yet another major hurricane threat for FL in the 10 to 12 day range as you can see the break in the ridge @ day 12 as a pretty stout short wave trough slides east across the Mississippi Valley. Don't by the storm getting trapped here at this point on the GFS with this type of escape route to the north.

FL's Major Hurricane drought is still subject to expire very soon.

Quoting 11. SecretStormNerd:


It has been popping for the last couple of days. I don't think anyone has mentioned it too much do to the cleanup with Matthew.


Come this weekend people across the Gulf will have all eye's on the Caribbean you watch. This could be very big!
Lowes and Home Depot here in Orlando have put Christmas and Halloween back up after Matthew. Looks like way to early for them to have done that as the "End Game" appears to be on the horizon.
climo says it will run through the fl. straits out through the bahamas but. its 2016.

Typhoon Songda being drawn into the westerlies. Strong vertical wind shear is being compensated for by the motion of the storm and its outflow channel, allowing for the entire deep layer tropical air to become entrained in an express lane headed for the West Coast. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur south of the Aleutians along a long frontal zone associated with a strong jet. The frontal zone and jet along with Songda's remnants will generate at least two major storms that will reach as far south as Monterey.
17. IDTH
Otto

Otter

Octopus

Dr. Octavius

October

OOOOoooooooooo
Recon has already found 50kt non-suspect surface winds in Nicole

170800 2810N 06712W 8429 01530 0058 +155 +111 044048 052 050 019 00
Time: 17:08:30Z
Coordinates: 28.150N 67.183W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,529 m (5,016 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.4 mb (29.66 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 50° at 47 kts (From the NE at 54.1 mph)
Air Temp: 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Dew Pt: 11.7°C (53.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 49 kts (56.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 39 kts (44.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (0.16 in/hr)
People are going through the routine motions here today in Bermuda. All prep work will be done by the end of the day. It is safe to say with the hurricane record our little Island has, people are very well prepared and experienced on how to deal with storms like this. We do not play around with prep work, we understand bad weather as there is no where to go when these things do happen, we cannot evacuate. Our building code is very strict and the reef line helps to break down swell, we are almost purpose built to weather hurricanes.

The story of Bermuda as a country actually originates from the the wrecking of Sea Venture in 1609 during a Tempest, which inspired William Shakespeare to pen the play, the fabled Isles were seemingly inhabited with spirits and devils. Bermuda before she was officially named had been referred to by the Europeans as the Devils Isles, believing that the strong storms and screeching of the Cahow Petrols were the work of the devils inhabiting the place.

Apart from that, it is a very beautiful place to live and work. You all should come down for a visit sometime!!

Extensive early season snow cover over Siberia will allow for rapid cooling and the buildup of cold dense air that may already be resulting in a strong jet stream over East Asia and the North Pacific. The snow has been fed by the warmer than usual waters of the Arctic as well as several inputs by decaying tropical systems.
Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

Lowes and Home Depot here in Orlando have put Christmas and Halloween back up after Matthew. Looks like way to early for them to have done that as the "End Game" appears to be on the horizon.


Christmas? In October? Seriously?
Quoting 22. FunnelVortex:



Christmas? In October? Seriously?


Christmas Trees up as soon as go thru the front door. I kid you not.
Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:



Christmas Trees up as soon as go thru the front door. I kid you not.


The Christmas Creep gets earlier every year.

Some stores around here sell Christmas as early as September. I've even seen one instance of Christmas decorations being sold as early as the last week of August.
Eye See You, Nicole!!!
Time: 17:18:30Z
Coordinates: 27.783N 66.767W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,480 m (4,856 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.2 mb (29.51 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 51° at 59 kts (From the NE at 67.9 mph)
Air Temp: 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Dew Pt: 11.8°C (53.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 61 kts (70.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (0.12 in/hr)
12z GFS ensembles have a strong signal

Quoting 248. hydrus:

It will be a while before some help comes...from rain..

Yes, very disappointing and boring weather: going on 2 weeks plus here in the FL Panhandle without a drop. Completely stubborn high pressure won't budge.
Quoting 20. DevilsIsles:

People are going through the routine motions here today in Bermuda. All prep work will be done by the end of the day. It is safe to say with the hurricane record our little Island has, people are very well prepared and experienced on how to deal with storms like this. We do not play around with prep work, we understand bad weather as there is no where to go when these things do happen, we cannot evacuate. Our building code is very strict and the reef line helps to break down swell, we are almost purpose built to weather hurricanes.

The story of Bermuda as a country actually originates from the the wrecking of Sea Venture in 1609 during a Tempest, which inspired William Shakespeare to pen the play, the fabled Isles were seemingly inhabited with spirits and devils. Bermuda before she was officially named had been referred to by the Europeans as the Devils Isles, believing that the strong storms and screeching of the Cahow Petrols were the work of the devils inhabiting the place.

Apart from that, it is a very beautiful place to live and work. You all should come down for a visit sometime!!




That's certainly very relieving to hear, and it signals great Pre-storm readiness status for the island of Bermuda -since Nicole Certainly looks like she means business...


Quoting 254. hydrus:





You guys are in my thoughts and Prayers for the very Best.

Keep safe! & May God Bless Us All!
Quoting 27. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z GFS ensembles have a strong signal




Likely another SE US runner. Could be the nail in the coughin from FL to SE VA rain wise.
Songda's eye looking nasty and very impressive. Wish all of you in the Pacific NW states the best of luck, as this could bring an awful lot of rain. Not quite sure how one prepares for 10" or more of rain (in 24 hrs). We have trouble enough here trying to get ready for 2 or 3 inches, let alone 10.

Concerned that Nicole could end up being a very large storm, if not a particularly strong one. Appears to have a really wide water vapour field to the east to draw from, maybe across 10+ degrees of longitude, and it still has until Thursday before reaching Bermuda:



Maybe not quite.

Time: 17:18:30Z
Coordinates: 27.7833N 66.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,480 meters (~ 4,856 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.2 mb (~ 29.51 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 51° at 59 knots (From the NE at ~ 67.8 mph)
Air Temp: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Dew Pt: 11.8°C (~ 53.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
Time: 17:28:30Z
Coordinates: 27.383N 66.367W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,362 m (4,469 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 985.3 mb (29.10 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 39° at 30 kts (From the NE at 34.5 mph)
Air Temp: 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Dew Pt: 11.9°C (53.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 kts (38.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 kts (39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)
56-58kt surface winds and pressure down to 985.3mb


172430 2732N 06632W 8430 01420 9925 +180 +115 044065 066 056 002 00
172500 2731N 06631W 8428 01414 9915 +180 +113 047065 066 056 001 00
172530 2730N 06630W 8426 01407 9906 +180 +116 045064 066 056 002 00
172600 2728N 06629W 8428 01398 9900 +176 +117 048062 065 058 005 00
172630 2727N 06628W 8422 01393 9892 +170 +121 049053 061 058 006 00
172700 2726N 06626W 8430 01378 9874 +180 +127 041042 052 057 003 00
172730 2725N 06625W 8429 01376 9867 +183 +130 035040 043 052 004 03
172800 2724N 06624W 8428 01365 9857 +191 +127 034034 038 047 003 00
172830 2723N 06622W 8429 01362 9853 +191 +119 039030 033 034 001 00

Strongest winds will be in the northeast section, so Nicole is very likely a hurricane, or very close to being one.
Quoting 25. 62901IL:

Eye See You, Nicole!!!


Ignore me if I'm wrong, but in that picture, Nicole looks mighty annular.
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:

Potentially yet another major hurricane threat for FL in the 10 to 12 day range as you can see the break in the ridge @ day 12 as a pretty stout short wave trough slides east across the Mississippi Valley. Don't by the storm getting trapped here at this point on the GFS with this type of escape route to the north.

FL's Major Hurricane drought is still subject to expire very soon.


Or...maybe not. 

Same GFS chart, but later, @ 384:



That trough that STS says will pull it towards Florida is replaced with a large ridge over the central CONUS, and the storm essentially stalls over the southern GoM. More like a northern Mexico or lower Texas event unless the next trough from the West moves in quicker....then maybe my neck of the woods (upper TX/LA) might be in trouble.
Then again, this is still 10-14 days out. At that point earlier, Matthew was supposed to be blasting South Louisiana with Cat 3 winds, according to one GFS run. 
Easy to make premature calls; much better to simply watch and if a threat does come to pass, prepare.
Afternoon all. I'm just stopping by briefly to see how the Carolinas fared and give an update on our situation here in the Bahamas.

You may be aware that the NW Bahamas was hardest hit by Matthew, particularly New Providence, North Andros, and Grand Bahama. Currently I, like about 55% of Nassuvians, am without power and water. Phones, especially cellular, are up, but internet and data access is spotty at best. Schools on the mentioned islands are closed.
However the attitude is mostly stoic, If not totally upbeat. Most people are going about effecting whatever repairs they can and attempting to secure supplies - water, ice, propane, gas.

Roads are mostly clear and functional. The main areas of flood damage are a different story. While much of the rest of the high impact areas should be up and running by the end of this week, flooded areas are expected to take much longer.
The main concern for most people is electricity restoration. Hopefully our power company will get the needed assistance from Caribbean and US crews.... We took a major hit infrastructure wise, with lots of downed poles and lines.
Best wishes to my NC and SC friends... I feel your pain....
Sorry, double post.

I am now seeing the Nicole track and thinking that it's amazing how storms can find one tiny island.... Smh... Stay safe up there!
Quoting 37. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all. I'm just stopping by briefly to see how the Carolinas fared and give an update on our situation here in the Bahamas.

You may be aware that the NW Bahamas was hardest hit by Matthew, particularly New Providence, North Andros, and Grand Bahama. Currently I, like about 55% of Nassuvians, am without power and water. Phones, especially cellular, are up, but internet and data access is spotty at best. Schools on the mentioned islands are closed.
However the attitude is mostly stoic, If not totally upbeat. Most people are going about effecting whatever repairs they can and attempting to secure supplies - water, ice, propane, gas.

Roads are mostly clear and functional. The main areas of flood damage are a different story. While much of the rest of the high impact areas should be up and running by the end of this week, flooded areas are expected to take much longer.
The main concern for most people is electricity restoration. Hopefully our power company will get the needed assistance from Caribbean and US crews.... We took a major hit infrastructure wise, with lots of downed poles and lines.
Best wishes to my NC and SC friends... I feel your pain....



Great seeing you again, Baha!! Hoping things get back to norm sooner rather than later!
Thanks Doc..Maybe two or three systems to come from the Atlantic Basin..Anything that gets over the N.W Caribbean will have some very warm water to fuel it. If anything does form, I pray to God it stays away from Eastern Haiti and the gulf...Not much room to go anywhere else.
Good afternoon

Well, we've had the most intense rain over here in the last 2four hours. This last storm, which we are in the midst of at the moment will push the rainfall over 7 inches. The thunderstorms have been rolling through over and over again.

I do hope that CaribBoy is getting some of this!

Lindy
Hmm... by the looks of it I think Nicole will be 60 kt/983 mb at the 2PM advisory.
(EDIT: I hadn't taken a look at the dropsonde data which indicates 982 mb.)
Quoting 37. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all. I'm just stopping by briefly to see how the Carolinas fared and give an update on our situation here in the Bahamas.

You may be aware that the NW Bahamas was hardest hit by Matthew, particularly New Providence, North Andros, and Grand Bahama. Currently I, like about 55% of Nassuvians, am without power and water. Phones, especially cellular, are up, but internet and data access is spotty at best. Schools on the mentioned islands are closed.
However the attitude is mostly stoic, If not totally upbeat. Most people are going about effecting whatever repairs they can and attempting to secure supplies - water, ice, propane, gas.

Roads are mostly clear and functional. The main areas of flood damage are a different story. While much of the rest of the high impact areas should be up and running by the end of this week, flooded areas are expected to take much longer.
The main concern for most people is electricity restoration. Hopefully our power company will get the needed assistance from Caribbean and US crews.... We took a major hit infrastructure wise, with lots of downed poles and lines.
Best wishes to my NC and SC friends... I feel your pain....



I feel you man - currently on this little speck 1100 miles NE of you but lived on GB in the sixties. Any word on Freeport?
Looks like Nicole took a good amount of notes from Matthew and Gaston.
In some ways I think this hurricane season was somewhat analogous to 1998 after coming out of a very strong El Niño. You could say Hermine was analogous to Bonnie, Matthew was analogous to Georges (both affecting numerous land areas from the Caribbean to US). Will future Otto be analogous to that nasty M storm of 1998? I guess time will tell
...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Tue Oct 11
Location: 27.3N 66.3W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 66.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

Quoting 44. midatlanticoutpost:



I feel you man - currently on this little speck 1100 miles NE of you but lived on GB in the sixties. Any word on Freeport?
Woman
Quoting 44. midatlanticoutpost:



I feel you man - currently on this little speck 1100 miles NE of you but lived on GB in the sixties. Any word on Freeport?


*nudges you* You might want to change that to "lady" ......
Nicole is once again a hurricane.
Quoting 29. NatureIsle:




That's certainly very relieving to hear, and it signals great Pre-storm readiness status for the island of Bermuda -since Nicole Certainly looks like she means business...





You guys are in my thoughts and Prayers for the very Best.

Keep safe! & May God Bless Us All!
Very impressive system. Goes to show the tenacity of the African waves.

Quoting 39. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all.


Wishing you the best and glad you're OK.
There appears to be an area of low pressure with some rotation east of the Tobago area of the Southern Lesser Antilles, which is embedded somewhat within the ITCZ and along the active wave axis at its respective latitude.
Hopefully, it will not mean too much stormy weather for the southern islands or worse yet a 'Low rider' system...

Let's all keep safe and Vigilant this season.

God Bless!
Quoting 35. ThisIsNotSparta:


Ignore me if I'm wrong, but in that picture, Nicole looks mighty annular.


not really
Quoting 36. AnthonyJKenn:

Or...maybe not. 

Same GFS chart, but later, @ 384:



That trough that STS says will pull it towards Florida is replaced with a large ridge over the central CONUS, and the storm essentially stalls over the southern GoM. More like a northern Mexico or lower Texas event unless the next trough from the West moves in quicker....then maybe my neck of the woods (upper TX/LA) might be in trouble.
Then again, this is still 10-14 days out. At that point earlier, Matthew was supposed to be blasting South Louisiana with Cat 3 winds, according to one GFS run. 
Easy to make premature calls; much better to simply watch and if a threat does come to pass, prepare.


That'd be an unusual run for late October, but not unheard of.
Quoting 44. midatlanticoutpost:



I feel you man - currently on this little speck 1100 miles NE of you but lived on GB in the sixties. Any word on Freeport?
West End to Freeport got hit bad .... Lots of flooding. No loss of life there, though, and only one indirect death (a heart attack victim on Andros). Assessment is still ongoing.
BahaHurican: Apologies ma'am - not like dis bye to make that kinda mistake!
Quoting 49. pingon:

Woman
Man is Bahamian slang. Like dude, only better.
Nicole got that Tropical Storm Symbol look


Quoting 58. midatlanticoutpost:

BahaHurican: Apologies ma'am - not like dis bye to make that kinda mistake!
If you didn't say 'man' I woulda doubt your credentials.... 😉 Ma'am is too polit...lol ...
Quoting 37. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all. I'm just stopping by briefly to see how the Carolinas fared and give an update on our situation here in the Bahamas.

You may be aware that the NW Bahamas was hardest hit by Matthew, particularly New Providence, North Andros, and Grand Bahama. Currently I, like about 55% of Nassuvians, am without power and water. Phones, especially cellular, are up, but internet and data access is spotty at best. Schools on the mentioned islands are closed.
However the attitude is mostly stoic, If not totally upbeat. Most people are going about effecting whatever repairs they can and attempting to secure supplies - water, ice, propane, gas.

Roads are mostly clear and functional. The main areas of flood damage are a different story. While much of the rest of the high impact areas should be up and running by the end of this week, flooded areas are expected to take much longer.
The main concern for most people is electricity restoration. Hopefully our power company will get the needed assistance from Caribbean and US crews.... We took a major hit infrastructure wise, with lots of downed poles and lines.
Best wishes to my NC and SC friends... I feel your pain....


Best wishes to you too Baha!
I thought Baha was a man too until several years later.lol I felt like a jerk afterwards.
Nicole looks like she's getting ready for some significant intensification....

12 Euro is running and takes Nicole awfully close to Bermuda. It wouldn't surprise me to see Nicole ramp up to a major hurricane as the waters surrounding Bermuda are still quite warm and the upper level environment will be favorable for strengthening until it becomes absorbed by a mid-latitude system.



Looking downstream it seems as though models are coming into better agreement on a SW Caribbean storm in the 7-10 day timeframe. The GFS is the most rambunctious and ramps this up into a hurricane in 10 days.

Nicole only has a 22% of RI? I think it should be a bit higher than that.....

Why is it that we virtually never accurately predict RI? When we predict that it will occur, it usually doesn't. It almost always happens when we think it won't.
68. IDTH
Quoting 66. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12 Euro is running and takes Nicole awfully close to Bermuda. It wouldn't surprise me to see Nicole ramp up to a major hurricane as the waters surrounding Bermuda are still quite warm and the upper level environment will be favorable for strengthening until it becomes absorbed by a mid-latitude system.



Looking downstream it seems as though models are coming into better agreement on a SW Caribbean storm in the 7-10 day timeframe. The GFS is the most rambunctious and ramps this up into a hurricane in 10 days.



Could it get worse than Matthew?

I wouldn't have even asked this question but future (distant, still a long time frame) Otto with the right environment is scary in the Caribbean.

I mean it can't get worse than Matthew.....right?
Quoting 68. IDTH:


Could it get worse than Matthew?

I wouldn't have even asked this question but future (distant, still a long time frame) Otto with the right environment is scary in the Caribbean.

I mean it can't get worse than Matthew.....right?
Nothing like a large violent storm right after a large violent storm..Long way out tho.
Quoting 35. ThisIsNotSparta:


Ignore me if I'm wrong, but in that picture, Nicole looks mighty annular.


I thought you were going to say "ignore me if I'm wrong, but congratulate me if I'm right." That seems to be the way it works in the blog sometimes (not naming names).

To gain respect from your peers it's important to admit when you're wrong. Then it's a lot easier to congratulate you when your right.
Dr. Masters admitting his 3 day forecast was a little off for Virginia during Hurricane Matthews is a good example of what I'm talking about.
Waves picking up big time in Bermuda. Here's a web cam out there.
Link
Quoting 68. IDTH:


Could it get worse than Matthew?

I wouldn't have even asked this question but future (distant, still a long time frame) Otto with the right environment is scary in the Caribbean.

I mean it can't get worse than Matthew.....right?
IDTH, I feel you. I certainly hope not, but given the record levels of TCHP it could become a scary sight, thankfully nothing is there right now and as you said, a long ways out. It could move into the EPAC and develop there or wind shear could be too strong for anything significant to develop. Beell termed this area "conditional development" and I think he is right. On top of that due to the monsoon trough in this area it may be a large and disorganized area that takes awhile to develop. Maybe, we can hope it brings some rain to Nicaragua and Honduras as a weak tropical storm. I know Allan has been saying that area has been dry.
Bermuda again...
Quoting 70. Sfloridacat5:



I thought you were going to say "ignore me if I'm wrong, but congratulate me if I'm right." That seems to be way it works in the blog some times (not naming names).

To gain respect from your peers it's important to admit when you're wrong. Then it's a lot easier to congratulate you when your right.
Dr. Masters admitting his 3 day forecast was a little off for Virginia during Hurricane Matthews is a good example of what I'm talking about.

True..Someone here said that Doc and Mr Henson " blew the forecast " including Dr Masters himself, as if the entire forecast was a failure, when in reality, the forecasts were accurate from the Eastern Caribbean all the way to South Carolina, that's where the forecast went awry..Regardless those advisories undoubtedly saved lives.
Quoting 68. IDTH:


Could it get worse than Matthew?

I wouldn't have even asked this question but future (distant, still a long time frame) Otto with the right environment is scary in the Caribbean.

I mean it can't get worse than Matthew.....right?


Depends on what is "better" and what is "worse". The future storm shown in models is expected to develop in waters that are warmer and contain more heat than the Central Caribbean waters over which Matthew moved. So at least "Otto" could be more intense than Matthew. However, "Otto" is very unlikely to hit Haiti, and it's unlikely to move parallel to U.S. coastline.
Quoting 74. hydrus:

True..Someone here said that Doc and Mr Henson " blew the forecast " including Dr Masters himself, as if the entire forecast was a failure, when in reality, the forecasts were accurate from the Eastern Caribbean all the way to South Carolina, that's where the forecast went awry..Regardless those advisories undoubtedly saved lives.


Yeah, it's kind of hard to make an accurate forecast when the GFS, Euro, and most the other models were showing a loop back towards the Bahamas after scraping Georgia and South Carolina.
Quoting 68. IDTH:


Could it get worse than Matthew?

I wouldn't have even asked this question but future (distant, still a long time frame) Otto with the right environment is scary in the Caribbean.

I mean it can't get worse than Matthew.....right?


Of course it can get worse. Just look a Hurricane Mitch from 1998. That storm peaked out on around the 26th of October with 155 Knots. That's about the same time that Otto might be a US threat. Hurricane Mitch was a lot stronger then Matthew was.
Quoting 73. CaribBoy:

Bermuda again...


Bermuda actually rarely gets a direct hit (with the exception of the past few years). But that doesn't take into account the numerous storms that miss the island but are still close enough to bring effects of some kind to the island.

If Bermuda was just a little further south and west it would be in the most active location in the Atlantic Basin for tropical cyclones.
Quoting 66. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12 Euro is running and takes Nicole awfully close to Bermuda. It wouldn't surprise me to see Nicole ramp up to a major hurricane as the waters surrounding Bermuda are still quite warm and the upper level environment will be favorable for strengthening until it becomes absorbed by a mid-latitude system.



Looking downstream it seems as though models are coming into better agreement on a SW Caribbean storm in the 7-10 day timeframe. The GFS is the most rambunctious and ramps this up into a hurricane in 10 days.



Ugh! Flashbacks of Wilma...same time of the month, too.
Quoting 76. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it's kind of hard to make an accurate forecast when the GFS, Euro, and most the other models were showing a loop back towards the Bahamas after scraping Georgia and South Carolina.
Some complex dynamics at all levels of the atmosphere. Mets will likely be studying this hurricane for a long time. Shows how important the older way of forecasting has its place in modern Meteorology
81. IDTH
I just hated asking because when you already had a CAT 5 which took up a lot of ocean heat content (and there's still a lot there!) and caused as much devastation as it did, it makes you think, how can it get worse than that this season?

I seriously hope this is just the models being anxious but if models continue to agree (consistency) like they did with Matthew, it makes it a possibility that maybe there is worse to come. We just got to watch and be ready when the time comes.

In terms of what's happening now, Nicole looks like it'll pass close to Bermuda and could be quite a powerful Hurricane on it's way out.

October has been crazy this season.
Time: 18:58:30Z
Coordinates: 27.933N 65.567W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,499 m (4,918 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.6 mb (29.61 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 131° at 52 kts (From the SE at 59.8 mph)
Air Temp: 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Dew Pt: 9.0°C (48.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 kts (41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (0.08 in/hr)
Latest Euro...@240..

Quoting 57. BahaHurican:

West End to Freeport got hit bad .... Lots of flooding. No loss of life there, though, and only one indirect death (a heart attack victim on Andros). Assessment is still ongoing.



Glad you fared well, Baha. And you're a lady???
All major model cmc GFS and Euro develop something in the SW carribbean cmc and GFS being the most aggressive with Euro showing weaker system near HAITI that would be the worst possible track
Time: 19:08:30Z
Coordinates: 27.550N 65.983W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,406 m (4,613 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.4 mb (29.28 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 132° at 73 kts (From the SE at 84.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Dew Pt: 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 75 kts (86.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 60 kts* (69.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 31 mm/hr* (1.22 in/hr*)
Quoting 81. IDTH:

I just hated asking because when you already had a CAT 5 which took up a lot of ocean heat content (and there's still a lot there!) and caused as much devastation as it did, it makes you think, how can it get worse than that this season?

Just bear in mind that we (humanity) are charging full speed ahead into totally new climate, and weather, territory -- we will more frequently experience stronger storms, heavier rain, hotter days and nights, and more deaths from all that, than we have.
Quoting 37. BahaHurican:


Best wishes to my NC and SC friends... I feel your pain....



So glad to see you on here, Baha! Apologies, too -- I went to "+" your entry and accidentally bumped the red flag (wish it had an "Are you sure?" pop-up on it!).

I remember being 3 weeks without power and a month-and-a-half with no phone in my own worst hurricane experience. If your peeps are as chipper as you say they are in the midst of all this, you're surrounded by wonderful folk! Wishing your islands a speedy recovery, and hopefully no more hurricanes this season!
90. IDTH
I think we can all agree no matter what, please spare Haiti any more storms this season. They do not need it nor deserve this.
Just saw a AFR HH C-130 3000 ft up heading SSW off Lake Pontchartrain.

May b a training flight.
Quoting 78. Sfloridacat5:



Bermuda actually rarely gets a direct hit (with the exception of the past few years). But that doesn't take into account the numerous storms that miss the island but are still close enough to bring effects of some kind to the island.

If Bermuda was just a little further south and west it would be in the most active location in the Atlantic Basin for tropical cyclones.
Yep...Bermuda has to peak times they get hit, early September and late October...The two strongest hurricanes ever to hit Bermuda were the September-13th, 1899 Hurricane and the October-29th, 1926 Hurricane, both with 120 mph winds. There may have been more intense hurricanes, but before the age of accurate wind speed devices.
A relief push is being organised for Haiti as a plan is coming in to focus quickly.

It will be a directed effort for a imediatte local need .

Details to come.

My friend came to me
With sadness in his eyes
Told me that he wanted help
Before his country dies
Although I couldn't feel the pain
I knew I had to try
Now I'm asking all of you
Help us save some lives

Quoting 67. pipelines:

Nicole only has a 22% of RI? I think it should be a bit higher than that.....

Why is it that we virtually never accurately predict RI? When we predict that it will occur, it usually doesn't. It almost always happens when we think it won't.



I don't have an answer for that, Pipelines, but in Nicole's case I really don't understand the forecasting. Nicole's first episode of RI was virtually identical to Matthew's, in that she did it flying in the face of shear. If you'd have asked me to forecast this round with Nicole redux, and knowing that shear was falling off rapidly for her, I couldn't have bet on anything BUT another bout of RI.
I wrote on the 8th this would become at least a CAT 3.

Quoting 85. ackee:

All major model cmc GFS and Euro develop something in the SW carribbean cmc and GFS being the most aggressive with Euro showing weaker system near HAITI that would be the worst possible track


Good Lord. Even a weak system is the last thing they need.
Well that didn't take long, could be knocking at major status by the end of the day at this rate....
There's a good chance Nicole will become our 3rd major hurricane if it continues with this satellite presentation.

You can probably already see the beginning of activity in the western Caribbean. With the strong high pressure expected over the US next week, it is not uncommon to see strong pressure drops in the Caribbean and the Gulf. With a little push of a wave moving into the Caribbean this week, I believe the models are correct in a very strong system developing.

Down to 980mb

980mb (28.94 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 225° (from the SW) 1 knots (1 mph)
925mb 513m (1,683 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 205° (from the SSW) 2 knots (2 mph)
850mb 1,252m (4,108 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.8°C (69°F) 185° (from the S) 1 knots (1 mph)




From Nassau, Bahamas. Good amount of people still without power. Freeport and West End Grand Bahama even worse. A lot of locals helping eachother with tree cutting, cleanup etc.
Quoting 83. hydrus:

Latest Euro...@240..




We really need to watch what could be Otto next week. Record SST's stil in place from the NW Caribbean over to the Bahamas. Shear will be high across the NW Caribbean thru this weekend but by Tuesday or Wednesday next week conditions could become ideal for strengthening and we've seen before how fast systems can spin up in this region in October under ideal conditions.
well I am finally in front of a computer to tell my story about impacts just 10 miles NE of Myrtle Beach. We lost power for 48 hours, 13" of rain, and the west side of the storm was a differnet animal than the rain socked east side. I guess the eye came within 20-25 miles of us. For nearly 5 hours, we had sustasined winds of 35-55 with gusts in the 80-90 mph range. lots of trees down in my back yard. House is intact!!! Thankfully, it hit during solid daylight.

My family in NC is now all flooded out and without power, or close to it. They all say whah it was not supposed to be that bad here (unprepared). I told them that they always need to respect a dying major as it has much more energy than Cat-1 would lead them to be ready for. So, even the governor is crying about the forecast, but they were WARNED & WARNED AGAIN about the nature of this storm. Not to mention the track verfiied pretty well all the way from the Caribbean. Holy sh!t they even got it right to within 50 miles for us about 24 hours before landfall....how much more do you want people!!! Thanks Doc and Jim for your tireless efforts. flash flooding is always the killer in the US due to stupid sight-seeing
Quoting 94. OrchidGrower:




I don't have an answer for that, Pipelines, but in Nicole's case I really don't understand the forecasting. Nicole's first episode of RI was virtually identical to Matthew's, in that she did it flying in the face of shear. If you'd have asked me to forecast this round with Nicole redux, and knowing that shear was falling off rapidly for her, I couldn't have bet on anything BUT another bout of RI.

Looking at the rate of organization, it already seems to be under going RI!
Nearly all the GFS Ensembles @ 12Z show a TS or Hurricane hitting FL beginning around day 11.
Quoting 68. IDTH:


Could it get worse than Matthew?

I wouldn't have even asked this question but future (distant, still a long time frame) Otto with the right environment is scary in the Caribbean.

I mean it can't get worse than Matthew.....right?
it can and could we shall see
Quoting 92. hydrus:

Yep...Bermuda has to peak times they get hit, early September and late October...The two strongest hurricanes ever to hit Bermuda were the September-13th, 1899 Hurricane and the October-29th, 1926 Hurricane, both with 120 mph winds. There may have been more intense hurricanes, but before the age of accurate wind speed devices.


Wasn't Fabian also at 120 mph when hitting Bermuda?
Active ITCZ but nothing able to climb up to 18N. Also, thanks to Matthew and Nicole, we have been very dry for almost 3 weeks now.
Quoting 22. FunnelVortex:



Christmas? In October? Seriously?


we got to pass helloween first

then Halloween then end of the season then Christmas that's the list

Quoting 74. hydrus:

True..Someone here said that Doc and Mr Henson " blew the forecast " including Dr Masters himself, as if the entire forecast was a failure, when in reality, the forecasts were accurate from the Eastern Caribbean all the way to South Carolina, that's where the forecast went awry..Regardless those advisories undoubtedly saved lives.
I mentioned this to a co-worker today. Amazed at how accurate the forecast was on not only intensification but also on track. The sharp turn to the north seemed unbelievable to me until it actually happened. They did an awesome job as far as I am concerned. Hopefully the models will be wrong for the expected development in the SW Caribbean. Paloma developed in the same area and moved NE. Topped out as a Cat 4 with significant damage to Cayman Brac and Little Cayman but barely managed to reach eastern Cuba.
PTZtv @PTZtv
#Bermuda feeling effects of soon-to-be #HurricaneNicole approaching island - #notagain - watch live on http://PortBermudaWebcam.com
Quoting 113. Grothar:

WKC be like aww come on they cant all miss me whats going on here
15L/H/N/C2
Quoting 105. StormTrackerScott:

Nearly all the GFS Ensembles @ 12Z show a TS or Hurricane hitting FL beginning around day 11.


Can we not freak people out right now in Florida. It's a 11-14 day forecast, and if every 11-14 day hurricane forecasted on models that hit Florida actually hit Florida, the state would be a pile of rubble with a far lower population.
Just one GFS ensemble member, although a number of them are similar. (Do not trust any model out more than 3 hours)

Quoting 114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

WKC be like aww come on they cant all miss me whats going on here
He seemed to be very scarce when Matthew was in the Caribbean. As far as I am concerned I wouldn't mind if I never experience another hurricane.
Shame we don't have a P3 researching mission in Nicole (or a plane for that matter). Looks to be undergoing significant intensification right now.

Quoting 118. stormwatcherCI:

He seemed to be very scarce when Matthew was in the Caribbean. As far as I am concerned I wouldn't mind if I never experience another hurricane.
only after the north turn was the sure thing he was scarce but he is always here watching waiting just like the rest of us
Quoting 117. Grothar:

Just one GFS ensemble member, although a number of them are similar. (Do not trust any model out more than 3 hours)




99L really hurt everyone's confidence I guess.
122. LBAR
Checking in from inland South Carolina (about 100 miles from Myrtle Beach in Sumter, SC). Generators are a good thing! We finally have power trucks on our road cutting whole trees (roots and all) from atop broken power lines and poles. We've had no power since very early Saturday morning, so probably late tomorrow or Thursday (14th). We are safe, and aside from needing a new roof thanks to so many lost shingles and a full replacement of food lost in our freezer we're okay.

I am just now seeing the devastation on South Carolina's coast from Matthew. Horrible. And to hear of more deaths and suffering in Haiti is almost too much. The weather here has been nothing short of amazing after Matthew slapped us a year almost to the day of record flooding in 2015. For those that "root" for hurricanes, I hope you never have to go through this.
Quoting 115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

15L/H/N/C2



with all do respect, please only post official NHC strength figures, it's misleading.

You did the same thing with Hermine and you were wrong that time as well.
Quoting 116. typhoonty:



Can we not freak people out right now in Florida. It's a 11-14 day forecast, and if every 11-14 day hurricane forecasted on models that hit Florida actually hit Florida, the state would be a pile of rubble with a far lower population.
don't worry, we on the gulf coast will be watching This storm Very Closely but they are right too..its wayyy out in time and for now we just wait this out and and see if it actually develops in a week or so....what I find curious..GFS-CMC-Euro etc all have a LOW in the Caribbean around the 20-21st of October and this time of year, storms down there mostly head into the gulf and yes..probably Florida..but..we just need to wait and see ok...
Quoting 116. typhoonty:



Can we not freak people out right now in Florida. It's a 11-14 day forecast, and if every 11-14 day hurricane forecasted on models that hit Florida actually hit Florida, the state would be a pile of rubble with a far lower population.


Thank you.
Quoting 95. Grothar:

I wrote on the 8th this would become at least a CAT 3.




I see you are patting yourself on the back much like our favorite forecaster from Central Florida.
Quoting 123. pipelines:



with all do respect, please only post official NHC strength figures, it's misleading.

You did the same thing with Hermine and you were wrong that time as well.
I was not wrong and u will see later when they do season review after nov 30
Quoting 127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I was not wrong and u will see later when they do season review after nov 30


maybe, maybe not, but there is no question that this storm is not a category 2 right now, recon was in there literally a few minutes ago and found nothing even close to cat 2 strength.

It could be a cat 2 soon, but it isn't yet. Please don't mislead people by saying it is.
I don't do the blowin my own horn game
but I am pretty good with nailing down tracks and strengths of a storm
and sometimes I can even pick em out before anyone else



but its all just a hobby for me nothing more
Quoting 123. pipelines:



with all do respect, please only post official NHC strength figures, it's misleading.

You did the same thing with Hermine and you were wrong that time as well.

I do bet Hermine and Earl get upped in intensity slightly in the post-season analysis.

And the NHC will likely add that suspiciously TS-looking low pressure system that formed off the northeastern US in July.
Quoting 130. NCHurricaneTracker69:


I do bet Hermine and Earl get upped in intensity slightly in the post-season analysis.

And the NHC will likely add that suspiciously TS-looking low pressure system that formed off the northeastern US in July.


what about that suspicious looking tropical low that flooded Louisiana?
Quoting 108. CaribBoy:

Active ITCZ but nothing able to climb up to 18N. Also, thanks to Matthew and Nicole, we have been very dry for almost 3 weeks now.
Think you should move here to St.thomas had over 5 inches of rain yesterday plus more today
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp
There will be an MJO pulse across the W Atlantic the next couple of weeks (promotes rising air/thunderstorms) which should aid in poss dev.
Quoting 126. Bucsboltsfan:



I see you are patting yourself on the back much like our favorite forecaster from Central Florida.


I'd answer with a long response, but my arm hurts to much. If you've been on here long enough, you would know why I do that.

Don't ever confuse someone who acts the fool, with someone who actually is. You might end up embarrassing yourself.
Quoting 131. pipelines:



what about that suspicious looking tropical low that flooded Louisiana?
that was a completely overland system I don't even think the actual center ever entered over water at any time not that I remember anyway I think to be honest that was likely the only reason it never got named in the first place
Quoting 124. LargoFl:

don't worry, we on the gulf coast will be watching This storm Very Closely but they are right too..its wayyy out in time and for now we just wait this out and and see if it actually develops in a week or so....what I find curious..GFS-CMC-Euro etc all have a LOW in the Caribbean around the 20-21st of October and this time of year, storms down there mostly head into the gulf and yes..probably Florida..but..we just need to wait and see ok...

I do understand this as I live in Tallahassee and my family lives in Fort Myers. The pattern is conducive for something to form for sure but I would rather wait till there is something other than pixels than alarm people prematurely. I learned before the 99L/Hermine saga that people only have a 3-5 day attention span when it comes to preparing for a tropical cyclone. Doing so any earlier than that dillutes the message when people need to actually be prepared.

Trust me, being in Tallahassee for pre-Hermine, I got sick of tracking it by day 10 of 99L. I can't imagine what everyone else would have thought had I actually posted stuff on social media for two weeks.
Quoting 128. pipelines:



maybe, maybe not, but there is no question that this storm is not a category 2 right now, recon was in there literally a few minutes ago and found nothing even close to cat 2 strength.

It could be a cat 2 soon, but it isn't yet. Please don't mislead people by saying it is.


It would be better to warn of what will be approaching bermuda by downplaying it. Nicole is ramping up fast and could be undergoing RI. Her appearance right now looks on par with a 85-90kt Cat 2. Bermuda should prepare for a major hurricane, prepare for the worst hope for the best
Quoting 134. Grothar:



I'd answer with a long response, but my arm hurts to much. If you've been on here long enough, you would know why I do that.

Don't ever confuse someone who acts the fool, with someone who actually is. You might end up embarrassing yourself.


I do know you and hopefully you know where the sarcasm was directed to and it certainly wasn't you.
Quoting 133. bigwes6844:

HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp
There will be an MJO pulse across the W Atlantic the next couple of weeks (promotes rising air/thunderstorms) which should aid in poss dev.



Models are picking up on this in the Caribbean
Quoting 105. StormTrackerScott:

Nearly all the GFS Ensembles @ 12Z show a TS or Hurricane hitting FL beginning around day 11.


264 hours out.. Not time to panic yet.

If you don't have nonperishable hurricane supplies get them now. And not because of this forecast which will probably not verify uuhhh.. exactly. You should have gotten them in March.
It is hardly time to get the milk and bread yet.



gfs 275 hrs is that about 950 mb?
Quoting 141. islander101010:

gfs 275 hrs is that about 950 mb?


TG, 0074, 2016101112_F138_121N_0819W_FOF, 2016101112, 03, GFSO, 276, 186N, 839W, 72, 953
Nicole does some funky stuff yet as well

Good Afternoon Class! From Americas Left Coast, I wish you all a fine day. Beautiful day in Soo Cal. Just popped in to check up on all things tropical.
Quoting 118. stormwatcherCI:

He seemed to be very scarce when Matthew was in the Caribbean. As far as I am concerned I wouldn't mind if I never experience another hurricane.


I noticed that and wondered about it. Perhaps he will resurface if the low in the SW Caribbean spins up next week. After all, that feature would be quite likely to pass near us one way or another :-). Hopefully not right over.
Quoting 65. Envoirment:

Nicole looks like she's getting ready for some significant intensification....




A major hurricane seems seems reasonable to me, deep core convection, no apparent disruption of structure.

Quoting 135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that was a completely overland system I don't even think the actual center ever entered over water at any time not that I remember anyway I think to be honest that was likely the only reason it never got named in the first place
they named Julia while it was over land. Wasn't the LA system warm core with a closed circulation? I can't remember anymore.
Quoting 138. Bucsboltsfan:



I do know you and hopefully you know where the sarcasm was directed to and it certainly wasn't you.


Ok. My arm just got better :)
from 5 pm NHC discussion

The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous
advisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength
when it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC forecast
calls for a faster increase in strength during the next 24 hours,
but is close to the peak shown by the LGEM and FSSE models. Later
in the forecast period increasing shear and cooler SSTs should
result in some weakening, but the global models predict that Nicole
will become a large and powerful extratropical low over the North
Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.
Quoting 147. pipelines:

they named Julia while it was over land. Wasn't the LA system warm core with a closed circulation? I can't remember anymore.
coastal part overland part over water heading too open water
Quoting 134. Grothar:



I'd answer with a long response, but my arm hurts to much. If you've been on here long enough, you would know why I do that.

Don't ever confuse someone who acts the fool, with someone who actually is. You might end up embarrassing yourself.


just happy he did not say Central OK ;)
RAW T# has shot up to 6.0 for Nicole.

Best guess is a 105-115 knot peak.
Quoting 148. Grothar:



Ok. My arm just got better :)


make one of these

getting that fan out appeance in the cloud deck in the west of the hurricane it will be nearing cat 3 in 12 hrs


Quoting 145. kmanislander:



I noticed that and wondered about it. Perhaps he will resurface if the low in the SW Caribbean spins up next week. After all, that feature would be quite likely to pass near us one way or another :-). Hopefully not right over.
Although Paloma was Nov. 8th she came from the same area in the same direction :/
Quoting 152. CybrTeddy:

RAW T# has shot up to 6.0 for Nicole.

Best guess is a 105-115 knot peak.


Looka like it wants to go thru the Windward Passage.

Quoting 140. georgevandenberghe:



264 hours out.. Not time to panic yet.

If you don't have nonperishable hurricane supplies get them now. And not because of this forecast which will probably not verify uuhhh.. exactly. You should have gotten them in March.
It is hardly time to get the milk and bread yet.






On September 25, I saved a frame from a GFS run at 270 hours out showing future 'Matthew' positioned smack in the center of the FL peninsula. Ultimately, it verified within 100 miles. Let's see how good it is with this next prophecy.
Quoting 121. Guinness2013:



99L really hurt everyone's confidence I guess.


Go back to Sept 25 and look at the GFS run 270 hours out for "Matthew". Never say never. :-O
Songda unexpected rapidly intensifies into the 4th Super Typhoon of Season:


160. beell
Quoting 156. Grothar:



Looka like it wants to go thru the Windward Passage.




Stop it, Gro.
:)
Quoting 148. Grothar:



Ok. My arm just got better :)


Lol👏👏
Quoting 145. kmanislander:



I noticed that and wondered about it. Perhaps he will resurface if the low in the SW Caribbean spins up next week. After all, that feature would be quite likely to pass near us one way or another :-). Hopefully not right over.
Quoting 155. stormwatcherCI:

Although Paloma was Nov. 8th she came from the same area in the same direction :/


Lol even though you guys that I'm not here I am here

Yes I'm keeping an eye on that future W Caribbean storm
The wind shear is very low right now, almost non-existent in the SW Caribbean. It is screaming across the GOM. The TW east of the Lesser Antilles seems to be the catalyst for development. You can follow it on the 850 mb. vorticity as it travels across the north coast of SA. Takes about 5 days to get to the SW Caribbean. Link



Quoting 162. wunderkidcayman:



Lol even though you guys that I'm not here I am here

Yes I'm keeping an eye on that future W Caribbean storm


The good news is that we know whatever develops will stay clear of the Caymans.
Quoting 164. Bucsboltsfan:



The good news is that we know whatever develops will stay clear of the Caymans.


should go west of there
Quoting 159. pablosyn:

Songda unexpected rapidly intensifies into the 4th Super Typhoon of Season:




Looks like Gastonic Gaston with that large eye. How far North is this? This seems unusually far north for a super typhoon.
Quoting 166. chinookwx:


Looks like Gastonic Gaston with that large eye. How far North is this? This seems unusually far north for a super typhoon.


just above 30N
Quoting 147. pipelines:

they named Julia while it was over land. Wasn't the LA system warm core with a closed circulation? I can't remember anymore.
I believe in ATCF Julia´s formation was fix, so it occur 12 hours before the NHC named it.
Anyways the NW Caribbean is getting active as finally we are getting decent rains in Honduras. I love hearing thunders and plus it has been windy and cool this week. I hope it continues. :)
Quoting 164. Bucsboltsfan:



The good news is that we know whatever develops will stay clear of the Caymans.


What happen when you get that wrong hmm


Quoting 165. Hurricanes101:



should go west of there


What happen when it goes E of there hmm

Fact is you have no idea where it's going but what we can guess is that it would probably go generally N now whether it's NW or NE it's not yet known
Nicole is just a really classic-looking, "pretty", building hurricane, isn't she/it? It's rounding up nicely, too, with some hot towers on the last, pre-dark visual. Bermuda is going to be dealing with this for the next few days, in one way or another, and though I know they'll be prepared, as someone from there mentioned previously, I do wish them luck, as there is some small chance (especially in this rather strange year) that this might be the strongest hurricane, in mph, at least, that they've ever faced.

Jo
Hey everyone. I needed a little time away the past couple of days haven't been on the blog much after tracking Matthew for a couple weeks needed a little rest, got busy as well. Just catching up on things, Nicole looks really good. Possible 3rd major of the season.
Nicole gots it goin' on no doubt.
173. ackee
Very early but another interesting battle could be in the making between the Euro and The GFs .The GFS has been showing a low going in the western carrbb while the Euro take it NE track .The last battle between these two with Matthew it was close with the Euro coming out on top in my opinion in the end
Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:



What happen when you get that wrong hmm




What happen when it goes E of there hmm

Fact is you have no idea where it's going but what we can guess is that it would probably go generally N now whether it's NW or NE it's not yet known
Hey Wunderkind what's up.
Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:



What happen when you get that wrong hmm




What happen when it goes E of there hmm

Fact is you have no idea where it's going but what we can guess is that it would probably go generally N now whether it's NW or NE it's not yet known


Um, you know I was joking. Nothing is there and if something were to develop somewhere in the Caribbean no one knows where it is going.
Hello all..

Mandatory evacuations were issued in Pender County for those living along the Black River
I know it's not politically correct to apologize these days, but I committed a faux pas and I want to apologize to Bucs. I misunderstood his remark. But I guess I would do the same fo' my pa.
Quoting 174. HurricaneAndre:

Hey Wunderkind what's up.


Yes it's a Wunderkind a day lol

I'm ok mate good to see you

Quoting 175. Bucsboltsfan:



Um, you know I was joking. Nothing is there and if something were to develop somewhere in the Caribbean no one knows where it is going.


Oh yes I know
Yes nothing there now but that might not be the case in about 5 days or so either way yep we ain't gonna really know where it's going at this time but maybe in about 5 days or so then maybe
Quoting 178. wunderkidcayman:



Yes it's a Wunderkind a day lol

I'm ok mate good to see you



Oh yes I know
Yes nothing there now but that might not be the case in about 5 days or so either way yep we ain't gonna really know where it's going at this time but maybe in about 5 days or so then maybe
Good to see you too.
Quoting 76. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it's kind of hard to make an accurate forecast when the GFS, Euro, and most the other models were showing a loop back towards the Bahamas after scraping Georgia and South Carolina.
Lotta people here still not completely convinced Matthew is gone due to that forecast....
Quoting 84. Grothar:




Glad you fared well, Baha. And you're a lady???
Even when I err... lol...
Quoting 101. bahamamon:





From Nassau, Bahamas. Good amount of people still without power. Freeport and West End Grand Bahama even worse. A lot of locals helping eachother with tree cutting, cleanup etc.
Hope you are okay... I know people with power who are sharing with neighbors... offering washing and bath facilities to friends who are without... really wonderful spirit among many.... I can only add ... thank God for cold fronts.... :-)
I've always thought media should only show models when comparing to NHC forecast. Seems like they show the models too much and gives a false since of what we think will happen.
Quoting 156. Grothar:



Looka like it wants to go thru the Windward Passage.


No it doesnt, it looks like it wants to dissipate over the mountains of Central America before it reaches T.S. status..:)....Hello Gro....
That's a strong system.

Quoting 183. Grothar:

That's a strong system.



You and your FIM. Where do you find this?
Quoting 159. pablosyn:

Songda unexpected rapidly intensifies into the 4th Super Typhoon of Season:



Yep..Gets that extra boost from the Earths rotation when it gets up further from the equator...Edit....Looks like its breathing better too...
Quoting 176. ncstorm:

Hello all..

Mandatory evacuations were issued in Pender County for those living along the Black River
How are you faring? Thought about you when I saw the flood warning ...
Quoting 184. SecretStormNerd:


You and your FIM. Where do you find this?


In the FIM file
I know I asked this a while back, but how do I post a picture?
Quoting 107. LostTomorrows:



Wasn't Fabian also at 120 mph when hitting Bermuda?
I think it was 115 mph, but i am going by memory...I,ll google it...:)
Quoting 188. SecretStormNerd:

I know I asked this a while back, but how do I post a picture?


COPY THE PIC URL.....and then clik the picture icon right below the reply window....paste pic url.....done
192. IDTH
Quoting 190. Grothar:



Gro can the FIM 9 not show Wilma 2.0?
Quoting 185. hydrus:

Yep..Gets that extra boost from the Earths rotation when it gets up further from the equator...Edit....Looks like its breathing better too...

With regards to ventilation, it looks like the right entrance region of a big time jet streak is helping Songda maintain such a high intensity. Songda is only the fourth super typhoon to exist north of 30*N in the past 50 years.



Is it possible for nicole to become a storm like the most recent bering sea superstorm and affect world wide weather? Or was that event just really really odd?
Quoting 193. 1900hurricane:

Songda is only the fourth super typhoon to exist north of 30*N in the past 50 years.

Wow. Here's the whole picture (like a comet from outer space):


Click to enlarge.

Quoting 193. 1900hurricane:


With regards to ventilation, it looks like the right entrance region of a big time jet streak is helping Songda maintain such a high intensity. Songda is only the fourth super typhoon to exist north of 30*N in the past 50 years.





Could it end up like super typhoon nuri/ bering sea superstorm
Quoting 16. BayFog:


Typhoon Songda being drawn into the westerlies. Strong vertical wind shear is being compensated for by the motion of the storm and its outflow channel, allowing for the entire deep layer tropical air to become entrained in an express lane headed for the West Coast. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur south of the Aleutians along a long frontal zone associated with a strong jet. The frontal zone and jet along with Songda's remnants will generate at least two major storms that will reach as far south as Monterey.


All sorts of great news. Us left-coasters look forward to the sweet tropical goodness known as Songda.
Quoting 192. IDTH:


Gro can the FIM 9 not show Wilma 2.0?

Look at the size of that thing! If it plays out, certainly gonna wreak havoc somewhere!
And there is a wave behind!
Quoting 192. IDTH:


Gro can the FIM 9 not show Wilma 2.0?


Anything you want :)

Japan sees 60 pct chance of La Nina continuing through winter
Japan's met bureau estimates a La Nina weather pattern has emerged, in contrast to a U.S. government forecast
by Reuters, Tuesday, 11 October 2016 07:30 GMT
The team on The Weather Underground on TWC just spoke about long range models and watching the Western Caribbean. I think they picked up on it from here.

Looking more and more circular with a ragged eye that pops in and out
Quoting 190. Grothar:



I hope that doesn't turn out to be true. Looks like were going to see another storm though in the Western Carribean
Songda (NW Pac), until about 2350 UTC, Oct. 11. From Hi.8 rapid scan floater, RAMMB-CIRA.

Video link.
* See also Digital Typhoon : Target Area - Images and Movies Himawari-8
Quoting 177. Grothar:

I know it's not politically correct to apologize these days, but I committed a faux pas and I want to apologize to Bucs. I misunderstood his remark. But I guess I would do the same fo' my pa.


No worries big guy. My humor sometimes is very dry (35 years of marriage and my wife still doesn't get me).
Nicole should add a few good ACE points to the season and if Otto comes to pass in the caribbean next week that should also add some nice ACE points.
Nicole. Impressive strengthening.
Quoting 196. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Could it end up like super typhoon nuri/ bering sea superstorm
Yep...I remember when the models first picked up on that...My First post of the morning.
Quoting 193. 1900hurricane:


With regards to ventilation, it looks like the right entrance region of a big time jet streak is helping Songda maintain such a high intensity. Songda is only the fourth super typhoon to exist north of 30*N in the past 50 years.






Was looking for the other 3. Super Typhoon Oscar in 1995, not sure of the other 2 yet
Quoting 204. 999Ai2016:

Songda (NW Pac), until about 2350 UTC, Oct. 11. From Hi.8 rapid scan floater, RAMMB-CIRA.

Video link.
* See also Digital Typhoon : Target Area - Images and Movies Himawari-8
Oddly, the front page of the blog has nothing on songda....It says no storms in the Western Pacific...
Quoting 196. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Could it end up like super typhoon nuri/ bering sea superstorm

The mid-latitudes aren't set up quite the same way as it was in the Nuri '14 case, but it does look like Songda could become a significant player in the mid-latitudes. It's remnants could contribute to a potent storm to affect the NW CONUS/SW Canada coast.

Quoting 209. Hurricanes101:



Was looking for the other 3. Super Typhoon Oscar in 1995, not sure of the other 2 yet

Parma '03 and Ma-on '04 are the other two. Of these three, only Parma '03 is like Songda and hit peak intensity at or above 30*N. The other two were weakening (but still strong) from peak intensities achieved further south.
For Nicole, a dark grey eye embedded within a light grey CDO would yield a Data T of 5.0, which is probably a good starting point for the 00Z intensity estimate. The eye was warmer earlier (off-white), but it wouldn't make a difference in the DT. Verbatim T5.0 is matched with a 90 kt intensity, but that might be a little high for right now considering the recon data from earlier. MET is probably 4.5 right now, which is correlated with a 75 kt intensity. Maybe a blend of the two would be appropriate for an 80-85 kt intensity? As for pressure, using KZC for the 70 kt from earlier yields a 979 mb pressure, which is very close to what recon found (980 mb). An 80 kt intensity would have a pressure of 972 mb and an 85 kt intensity would have a 968 mb pressure using the same methodology.

Considering all of the above, I'd probably go with 80 kt/972 mb at 00Z.

Quoting 107. LostTomorrows:



Wasn't Fabian also at 120 mph when hitting Bermuda?
You were right L.T...2003 hurricane Fabian.... Passing just 14 miles west of Bermuda on September 5 as a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane.

Wiki...

Hurricane Fabian produced a 10-minute average wind speed of 120 mph , while a peak wind gust of 164 mph occurred at Bermuda Harbour Radio.[1] The strongest of the winds lasted approximately three to four hours, and while the eastern portion of the eyewall moved over the island, winds decreased to 60 mph. Large waves battered the southern portion of the island for several days.
Nicole moving slowly, but steadily, west past its forecast points. Pretty meaningless in the short term, but interesting...
Quoting 206. washingtonian115:

Nicole should add a few good ACE points to the season and if Otto comes to pass in the caribbean next week that should also add some nice ACE points.

Yep our ACE is climbing nicely. Now up to 109.4 - which is 17 above the long-term full season average. If Nicole becomes a major hurricane or we get another hurricane before the season ends, which is possible if not likely, we will officially qualify for an above-normal season by definition - no season in the 1970-94 inactive era was officially above normal by definition.
"Above-normal season: An ACE value above 111 (120% of the 1981–2010 median), provided at least two of the following three parameters are also exceeded: number of tropical storms: 12, hurricanes: 6, and major hurricanes: 2."
Had to repost this...If this happens, you couldnt ask for a more perfect set up to grow a monster hurricane..Very warm sea temps, almost no convection or disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, high pressure ridge just to the north.

Quoting 211. 1900hurricane:


The mid-latitudes aren't set up quite the same way as it was in the Nuri '14 case, but it does look like Songda could become a significant player in the mid-latitudes. It's remnants could contribute to a potent storm to affect the NW CONUS/SW Canada coast.


Parma '03 and Ma-on '04 are the other two. Of these three, only Parma '03 is like Songda and hit peak intensity at or above 30*N. The other two were weakening (but still strong) from peak intensities achieved further south.


duh, got super typhoon and CAT 5 mixed up lol
218. SLU
Quoting 189. hydrus:

I think it was 115 mph, but i am going by memory...I,ll google it...:)


31.80 -65.30 09/05/18Z 105kts 950 HURRICANE-3

They also said it was their costliest hurricane ever......

Quoting 216. hydrus:

Had to repost this...If this happens, you couldnt ask for a more perfect set up to grow a monster hurricane..Very warm sea temps, almost no convection or disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, high pressure ridge just to the north.




Agree, this has the early earmarks of something troubling. We have plenty of time to watch it unfold and hopefully it will just end up being a good rainmaker for those that need it.
Wait until someone crosses this with Zika. Or a common cold virus: Virus carrying DNA of black widow spider toxin discovered

Cat 4 Super Typhoon Songda phasing with the midlatitude westerlies in the North Pacific. Extratropical transition forecast to occur over the next 12-24 hours.
Quoting 192. IDTH:


Gro can the FIM 9 not show Wilma 2.0?
That actually looks large than Wilma was...Reminds me of Hurricane Carla...

The fact that October has been so active ACE-wise in the past few years is very interesting. Klotzbach noted that 2016 October ACE is the most since 1963 - and it's only going to go up from here. While September has had mostly weak storms, October has had the strongest storm of the season 4 of the last 5 seasons. With Matthew and Nicole alone, October has caused the season to turn around from slightly below normal to above normal in ACE.
225. SLU
11/2345 UTC 27.1N 66.7W T4.5/4.5 NICOLE
11/1745 UTC 27.3N 66.3W T4.5/4.5 NICOLE
Quoting 196. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Could it end up like super typhoon nuri/ bering sea superstorm

Not forecast to head north into the Bering Sea. The jet over the Pacific is going zonal as the usual blocking ridge is strongly undercut. The remnant cutoff jet branch loops back around, reinforcing the main jet, and also blocking any northward storm motions.
BayFog where's the moisture from Songda headed--Alaska or western Canada?
Quoting 183. Grothar:

That's a strong system.


..I do not even want to think what would happen if something like that moved into the Gulf of Mexico.. In fact , I,m not going to
229. Ed22
Quoting 202. chinookwx:


Looking more and more circular with a ragged eye that pops in and out
Could be a major category 3 tomorrow thats Nicole second stint at Hurricane status.
Historically, October seems to be a favored month for decaying typhoons to visit the West Coast in extratropical form. The most famous/infamous of course was the Columbus Day Storm of 1962, formed out of the remnant of Typhoon Freda. I was a small child then and remember the wild weather we had here in the SF Bay Area---high winds, torrential rain, and terrific thunderstorms. Of course, the storm was much worse up by the Oregon-California border where winds reached high Cat 5 levels. You can find info on this at Wikipedia and elsewhere on the net.
231. IDTH
Quoting 228. hydrus:

..I do not even want to think what would happen if something like that moved into the Gulf of Mexico.. In fact , I,m not going to

Basically how I feel right now.
Quoting 228. hydrus:

..I do not even want to think what would happen if something like that moved into the Gulf of Mexico.. In fact , I,m not going to
Good thing is that's ten days out, if the trend continues over the next couple days I'd monitor it but quiet a ways to go and subject to large changes,
Quoting 229. Ed22:

Could be a major category 3 tomorrow thats Nicole second stint at Hurricane status.


Could be an illusion based on her growing in size, but I'm seeing her northerly component now.
Quoting 228. hydrus:

..I do not even want to think what would happen if something like that moved into the Gulf of Mexico.. In fact , I,m not going to



Especially if it went to Florida......
Quoting 223. hydrus:

That actually looks large than Wilma was...Reminds me of Hurricane Carla...




Oh, no! Hurricane Carla went to Houston.....could this one be the long-awaited sequel for my city?
1 Million in Haiti Urgently Need Humanitarian Assistance After Hurricane's "Apocalyptic Destruction"

Link

Ex-Typhoon Songda to drench Northwest U.S.

" East of the Cascades, rainfall could total 1 to 3 inches in the valleys and 3 to 7 inches in the foothills of the northern Rockies."


This should be a snow storm for this time of the year, that far North.
Quoting 235. pureet1948:



Oh, no! Hurricane Carla went to Houston.....could this one be the long-awaited sequel for my city?


Late in October Texas is NOT a favored area for tropical systems.
North Carolina’s record floods could have unexpected environmental consequences
Local Riverkeepers worry that high water could lead to flooded coal ash ponds and hog manure lagoons.

Link
Quoting 236. MontanaZephyr:

1 Million in Haiti Urgently Need Humanitarian Assistance After Hurricane's "Apocalyptic Destruction"

Link


ShelterBox
Quoting 235. pureet1948:



Oh, no! Hurricane Carla went to Houston.....could this one be the long-awaited sequel for my city?

Hurricane Carla had some effects on the Houston area but did not "go to" Houston. However in this case yes, an analog to Carla is heading directly to your house and evacuation orders have been issued for you. National Guard troops are in your driveway to help get you to a shelter. Get out now while you still have a chance.


What's inside the Box

Shelter
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243. beell
Quoting 216. hydrus:

Had to repost this...If this happens, you couldnt ask for a more perfect set up to grow a monster hurricane..Very warm sea temps, almost no convection or disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, high pressure ridge just to the north.




Or it could turn into another Colin-esque storm.



From Wiki:

...Colin remained disorganized as it accelerated towards the coast of Florida on June 6; in their forecast discussion, the NHC noted that their uncertainty in locating the circulation center, instead taking the midpoint between two small-scale circulations. However, a strong burst of convection increased the winds to 50 mph (85 km/h)...


Perhaps a similar genesis.
curious... how did the forecast of Hurricane Matthew become so disjointed and be missed by the NHC.. hard to believe in this computer age that it could happen.. Matthew NEVER turned East away from the coast from the point it was first was forecast to--near Savannah, Ga.. then Charleston, SC.. then Myrtle Beach, SC and on and on up the East Coast.. the Loop that was supposed to happen never even came close to happening..
Quoting 227. BaltimoreBrian:

BayFog where's the moisture from Songda headed--Alaska or western Canada?


::Raises hand, emerges from lurking::

Given the fact I'm under a Special Weather Statement, and the forecast includes the term "inches" of rain I believe the answer is likely to be Western Washington. Other possible candidates are anywhere in Western BC...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
441 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR- WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA- ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA- OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA- WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST- EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY- BREMERTON AND VICINITY-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES- CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES- CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-
441 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...A SERIES OF STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ADJACENT WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

A STRONG JET STREAM TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY OUT FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL STEER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS...INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN...WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. ON THE COAST...STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH DANGEROUS SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE SECOND EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY AND HAVE VERY LOW ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE AS IT PASSES JUST OFF THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST. HIGH WINDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...SEAS COULD BUILD TO 30 TO 35 FEET OR MORE. SEAS THIS LARGE IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH TIDES COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND POSSIBLY ALONG INLAND WATER COASTLINES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN AT LEAST THE MORE PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. LARGE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO IMPACT THE COAST CAUSING DEBRIS TO BE TOSSED ABOUT...SEVERE BEACH EROSION...AND POSSIBLE SALT WATER FLOODING. CONFIDENCE ON THE INCIDENCE OF HIGH WIND AND FLOODING IN THE INTERIOR IS LOWER AT THIS TIME. OF COURSE...THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AS THIS ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
MERCER

I wanted to say Thank you to Dr. Masters for including our potential wind storm in the blog! It's nice to not be forgotten.

Also, murphy's law requires that this will be a horrible wind storm because I've got plane tickets purchased to fly to Ohio Saturday morning... :/
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Seattleite, thanks for your detailed response! Looks scary for you--hope everyone takes the storm seriously. It looks like Songda may prolong the event.
Quoting 203. chinookwx:


I hope that doesn't turn out to be true. Looks like were going to see another storm though in the Western Carribean


Models are about 60% something will develop
Quoting 244. BaltimoreBrian:

Hillary Clinton attributes Hurricane Matthew to climate change. Is she right?


MIAMI — During a campaign rally in Miami Tuesday, Hillary Clinton said Hurricane Matthew was "likely more destructive because of climate change."

Clinton was campaigning alongside former Vice President Al Gore, who has become a leading climate change activist since leaving politics. She said near record high ocean temperatures "contributed to the torrential rainfall and the flash flooding" from the storm, particularly in the Carolinas.

Clinton also said that rising sea levels mean Matthew's "storm surge was higher and the flooding was more severe."
Quoting 238. Bucsboltsfan:



Late in October Texas is NOT a favored area for tropical systems.

Agreed the month most common for storms to hit texas is september.But who knows?Still to early
It's a bit more concerning that the Seattle NWS office actually mentions the typhoon in the Hydrology Section... Here are a few key excerpts from our afternoon discussion. Two storms, possibly sub 980 in three days? Great...

Significant model differences persist with regards to the strength, track, and timing of the surface low feature embedded in westerly flow as it approaches Thursday night. The ECWMF continues to be the weakest of the solutions, with a weaker 980 mb low moving into north Vancouver Island and a triple point low becomes closed as it lifts north just off the north Washington coast. This would produce a burst of fairly windy conditions, but mainly along the coast and from Admiralty northward. A high wind watch may be needed but winds could be just advisory strength. Seas of 20 to 25 feet will also reach the Washington coast with high surface and possible coastal flooding by Friday. The GFS and NAM are stronger and more consolidated with the surface low but also faster. Stronger winds could be more widespread if these solutions are correct but uncertainty is quite high. Decided to go with a special weather statement and give the models a little more time to fall into line.

.LONG TERM...With the GFS and ECWMF so out of phase by Friday, confidence in the extended forecast is particularly low. The 12Z ECMWF did not shed any light on the weekend forecast as it still shows a 955mb surface low bombing out, then tracking northeast off the north Washington coast. This would probably result in high winds across much of the area, large swell over 30 feet, beach erosion, and coastal flooding (possibly significant). The GFS/NAM/CANADIAN are much less interesting as these models weaken the low faster as it wobbles into far north Vancouver Island. Large swell is still going to be a problem and coastal flooding with typical high surface dangers are a major concern. Will probably need to hoist a coastal flood watch soon for late Friday/Saturday but this was addressed in the special weather forecast issued this afternoon. Mercer

And the Hydrological Forecast:

HYDROLOGY...The first of several frontal systems will bring fairly significant precipitation to Western Washington late Wednesday night through Thursday night. 2 to 3 inch rain amounts should be common in the mountains, with locally more than 5 inches in the Olympics. The snow level will be around 8000 ft. There is a good chance the Skokomish River will flood as a result, and the flood watch remain in effect for Mason county. The lowlands will see an inch or two.

More frontal systems will move through the area Friday through early next week, including the remains of Typhoon Songda on Saturday. The pattern will be progressive, but the break in rainfall between storms may not be enough to prevent flooding on other area rivers. Will neeed to watch this pattern closely as any prolonged rain could cause flooding on other rivers.
Mercer
Quoting 218. SLU:



31.80 -65.30 09/05/18Z 105kts 950 HURRICANE-3

They also said it was their costliest hurricane ever......




I was here in Bermuda for that storm, it was an absolute monster in size and intensity. I have been through quite a few hurricanes, quite a few direct hits but nothing compares to Fabian.
Quoting 227. BaltimoreBrian:

BayFog where's the moisture from Songda headed--Alaska or western Canada?


I'm curious on this as well - for personal reasons... We've been pretty warm so far for this time of the year and we haven't had our first measurable snow fall yet either. (also late).

Quoting 227. BaltimoreBrian:

BayFog where's the moisture from Songda headed--Alaska or western Canada?

It's likely it will head wherever the jet stream takes it, which right now looks like the entire West Coast from British Columbia down to central California. Our forecast here in the SF Bay Area is for soaking rains, which will be very heavy in the mountains with high snow levels given the tropical origins of the moisture plume. It's difficult to know for sure with these events since cyclogenesis, often multiple, can form anywhere along the frontal zone from the slightest perturbation. In the 1962 storm, the low bombed out just west of SF, spinning up to the CA-OR border. As someone else from the Seattle area has mentioned, one model has something similar happening west of WA-OR this time around. We shall see.
252. Seattleite -

In 1997 I was transferred to Salem Ore. It was September. One of these cold Lows came in that Oct. I was scared to death , the sun popped out in November for a few hours, I couldn't see for next 12 hours.
Boy was I glad when they sent me to Torrance, Cal. I love the country up there, and the sea. But winter is the reason Seattle is the coffee capital of the country.
Current status of Songda:

WTPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
Quoting 245. stakeouttoo:

curious... how did the forecast of Hurricane Matthew become so disjointed and be missed by the NHC.. hard to believe in this computer age that it could happen.. Matthew NEVER turned East away from the coast from the point it was first was forecast to--near Savannah, Ga.. then Charleston, SC.. then Myrtle Beach, SC and on and on up the East Coast.. the Loop that was supposed to happen never even came close to happening..
Guess Hurricane Matthew was just too much than all the forecasters combined...I,m sure they will study this phenomenon until they get it right...nice too see you back on the blog.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1227 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK...

A TWO PART STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WEST
COAST STARTING THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST PART OF THIS STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...
WESTERN NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE SECOND PART MOVING IN SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS STORM
HAS A DEEP MOISTURE TAP AND COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAIN TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE COULD BE SEEN
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UP TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY
TO BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS STORM...MAINLY 8500 FEET AND ABOVE.

VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE THE FIRST HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF
THE SIERRA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR EAST TO NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR. DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS COULD MAKE TRAVEL
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. EXPECT DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND TURBULENCE IN ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR AVIATION. HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND
ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE
SECURED. A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
260. SLU
Quoting 244. BaltimoreBrian:

Hillary Clinton attributes Hurricane Matthew to climate change. Is she right?


Obviously not!!!

Category 4 hurricane landfalls are the norm in the Atlantic basin and the damage in Haiti is consistent with a category 4 landfall.

Also, Matthew was our second major hurricane of the year when the average is 2.3 per year.

Furthermore, it's the first time we witnessed a category 5 hurricane in 9 years whereas the previous 9 year period had 9 category 5 hurricanes.

So Clinton is playing pure politics with the weather.
261. SLU
Quoting 253. DevilsIsles:



I was here in Bermuda for that storm, it was an absolute monster in size and intensity. I have been through quite a few hurricanes, quite a few direct hits but nothing compares to Fabian.


Yes. I remember tracking Fabian from start to end and the images out of Bermuda were horrific at best.
Quoting 244. BaltimoreBrian:
Hillary Clinton attributes Hurricane Matthew to climate change. Is she right?

just wondering when this will no longer be a question :)
Quoting 243. beell:



Or it could turn into another Colin-esque storm.



From Wiki:

...Colin remained disorganized as it accelerated towards the coast of Florida on June 6; in their forecast discussion, the NHC noted that their uncertainty in locating the circulation center, instead taking the midpoint between two small-scale circulations. However, a strong burst of convection increased the winds to 50 mph (85 km/h)...


Perhaps a similar genesis.

Howdy Beell..I will say this. Judging by the water temps, current pattern, model consensus, and the time of year ( Colin was in early June ), the chances of having a system like Colin are slim to none....Although i would really dig seeing a weak tropical storm over a devastating killer hurricane affecting the Atlantic Basin...:)
Quoting 256. RobertWC:

252. Seattleite -

In 1997 I was transferred to Salem Ore. It was September. One of these cold Lows came in that Oct. I was scared to death , the sun popped out in November for a few hours, I couldn't see for next 12 hours.
Boy was I glad when they sent me to Torrance, Cal. I love the country up there, and the sea. But winter is the reason Seattle is the coffee capital of the country.


I am quite ready for the big burning ball of fire to disappear! Sun glare is a real problem. The sun and the heat are overbearing. Lol... Believe it or not I don't drink coffee. Can't stand the taste or smell. I prefer hot apple caramel ciders spiced with cinnamon. There's nothing quite like a hot drink on a rainy windy day.
Quoting 258. hydrus:

Guess Hurricane Matthew was just too much than all the forecasters combined...I,m sure they will study this phenomenon until they get it right...nice too see you back on the blog.


Honestly they didn't blow the forecast in reading the text of the forecast discussion and public advisoes they were of the uncertainties and specifically noted the uncertainties and challenges of predicting exact impacts of a hurricane passing almost parallel to the coast. it seemed like the east coast was lit up with warnings for a long time. Show me a hurricane that follows a 5 day track as forecast and I'll show you dear that cross right at a deer crossing sign sure it can happen but it is better to be prepared for the unexpected.
Al Gore, With Hillary Clinton, Stresses Voting and Climate
The former vice president and Democratic nominee tries to drum up turnout in Florida

It was unclear how much impact Mr. Gore will have with young voters who are considering smaller-party candidates. Asked before the rally if he knew who Mr. Gore was, Gabriel Montero, age 18, said, “He’s a former vice president? I don’t know much about him, honestly.”

But older voters here remember him well. “They stole the election against Bush,” said Henry Ruiz, age 42, of Miami Beach. “It was here in Florida.”


Link
Here are the prog maps for Thursday and Saturday. The Thursday storm represents the leading edge of the frontal zone associated with the advancing Pacific jet. You can see the extratropical transition of Songda further west near the Dateline. By Saturday, this low bombs out due west of the OR-WA border. Another wave appears to form back by the Dateline along the frontal zone.


268. beell
Quoting 250. RobertWC:



MIAMI %u2014 During a campaign rally in Miami Tuesday, Hillary Clinton said Hurricane Matthew was "likely more destructive because of climate change."

Clinton was campaigning alongside former Vice President Al Gore, who has become a leading climate change activist since leaving politics. She said near record high ocean temperatures "contributed to the torrential rainfall and the flash flooding" from the storm, particularly in the Carolinas.

Clinton also said that rising sea levels mean Matthew's "storm surge was higher and the flooding was more severe."



Record-setting PW values would seem to carry the lion's share of the attribution for this single storm. With that, a contribution to the torrential rainfall and flash flooding-but it was probably gonna rain anyway.

Near record-level SST's and currently insignificant sea-level rise are not as clear cut.

But, if the question is distilled down to a simple Yes/No answer;

Was Hurricane Matthew "likely more destructive because of climate change?", the answer is "Yes".
Quoting 266. RobertWC:

Al Gore, With Hillary Clinton, Stresses Voting and Climate
The former vice president and Democratic nominee tries to drum up turnout in Florida

It was unclear how much impact Mr. Gore will have with young voters who are considering smaller-party candidates. Asked before the rally if he knew who Mr. Gore was, Gabriel Montero, age 18, said, “He’s a former vice president? I don’t know much about him, honestly.”

But older voters here remember him well. “They stole the election against Bush,” said Henry Ruiz, age 42, of Miami Beach. “It was here in Florida.”


Link


Two irrelevant dinosaurs trying to drum up votes with an issue that is is nowhere near #1 on voters' lists.

That's just a fact. It is not a priority with the majority of Americans.
Quoting 269. nash36:



Two irrelevant dinosaurs trying to drum up votes with an issue that is is nowhere near #1 on voters' lists.

That's just a fact. It is not a priority with the majority of Americans.

It should be.
Quoting 265. adkonkle:



Honestly they didn't blow the forecast in reading the text of the forecast discussion and public advisoes they were of the uncertainties and specifically noted the uncertainties and challenges of predicting exact impacts of a hurricane passing almost parallel to the coast. it seemed like the east coast was lit up with warnings for a long time. Show me a hurricane that follows a 5 day track as forecast and I'll show you dear that cross right at a deer crossing sign sure it can happen but it is better to be prepared for the unexpected.
Yep. I mentioned here along with a couple other people that the forecast was good right up until it reached the South Carolina border, then it threw the models and forecasters for a loop... and not the loop forecast by the computer models...:)
Quoting 244. BaltimoreBrian:

Hillary Clinton attributes Hurricane Matthew to climate change. Is she right?
Typical deceptive headline writing -- save words by re-phrasing the truth to make it more sensational. Clinton's quotes in the article do not attribute the storm to warming, though she did say it is likely that the greater effects were a result of warming. Not quite the same thing.
Quoting 270. SecretStormNerd:


It should be.


It's not.

People care about their OWN lives; their pocketbooks; their ability to pay the mortgage; how much the Federal Government is skinning them with useless pork and programs that have zero benefit to THEM, that they have to fork more over for.

THAT is what people vote for. The vote for NOW, not later.
Quoting 260. SLU:



Obviously not!!!

Category 4 hurricane landfalls are the norm in the Atlantic basin and the damage in Haiti is consistent with a category 4 landfall.

Also, Matthew was our second major hurricane of the year when the average is 2.3 per year.

Furthermore, it's the first time we witnessed a category 5 hurricane in 9 years whereas the previous 9 year period had 9 category 5 hurricanes.

So Clinton is playing pure politics with the weather.

At least she acknowledges climate change.
Is it rare for a typhoon to get picked up and transported across the Pacific ocean to the pacific northwest U.S.?
Quoting 275. nash36:

And I will add: it is a sad day in America when we have these two evil, lying, useless turd buckets to vote for. I blame YOU, America, for being dumber than a frozen bag of dog sh*t for Thanksgiving dinner, thereby guaranteeing one of these horrific piles of pond scum (they don't qualify as humans to me) a trip to the White House.

Thanks.


You're saying it a bit nastier than I would, I'm waiting to see who will come out from behind door #3.
Quoting 275. nash36:

And I will add: it is a sad day in America when we have these two evil, lying, useless turd buckets to vote for. I blame YOU, America, for being dumber than a frozen bag of dog sh*t for Thanksgiving dinner, thereby guaranteeing one of these horrific piles of pond scum (they don't qualify as humans to me) a trip to the White House.

Thanks.


Couldn't have said it any better Nash

Super Typhoon Songda, trucking along across the North Pacific showing no sign of weakening yet.
Quoting 241. LouisPasteur:


Hurricane Carla had some effects on the Houston area but did not "go to" Houston. However in this case yes, an analog to Carla is heading directly to your house and evacuation orders have been issued for you. National Guard troops are in your driveway to help get you to a shelter. Get out now while you still have a chance.



All I can say is----I hope you're wrong.
Quoting 282. washingtonian115:

I have met Mr.s Clinton in person before (on several occasions actually) and she is the type that will say anything because she is power hungry and I will leave it at that..........No discussions.......


Human nature ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quoting 238. Bucsboltsfan:



Late in October Texas is NOT a favored area for tropical systems.



U sure?
Quoting 245. stakeouttoo:

curious... how did the forecast of Hurricane Matthew become so disjointed and be missed by the NHC.. hard to believe in this computer age that it could happen.. Matthew NEVER turned East away from the coast from the point it was first was forecast to--near Savannah, Ga.. then Charleston, SC.. then Myrtle Beach, SC and on and on up the East Coast.. the Loop that was supposed to happen never even came close to happening..


I don't think you're going to get an answer to that question. Just like today's politicians when they screw up really bad they like to just make believe it never happened. The NHC, TWC, NWS, Wunderground and this blog blew the northern half of Marrhew forecast really bad !! Even though the models all agreed on such a odd path.... they went with a model forecast that was really really odd. No hurricane of the past has ever followed such an odd path......and as we saw still no hurricane has followed the path they forecasted. I'm sure their gut and their experience was telling them something different. They still stuck with the faulty computer models.
This is not a game and put many people's lives and property at stake. I live on a island off the NC coast...... all the old timers just laughed at the so called 90 degree turn out to see. I had a bad gut feeling so i prepared for a direct hit and if I was wrong. ..so what. The problem is that government follows the so called professionals. Emergency management was told not to worry it was going out to sea and not come anywhere near us. At the most we could possibly see very minor tropical storm conditions. So no evacuation was called and most people barely prepared.
Well the result was the complete opposite. ......a cat one past just off of us....sustained 75 to 80 and gusts much higher......still not that big of a deal for this island....but the odd nature of this storm ( also not predicted early enough ) of it's western half being pulled out of it's circulation and up the front caused north west winds above hurricane strength for hours on end. The result storm tide of higher levels then have ever been recorded in history on a completely unexpected population on the south end of our island. The place is devastated !! And they were told to not worry it wasn't coming anywhere near them. All up the coast of here they had a unprecedented rain event that is mind boggling and again they were told it was coming no where near them.
Through all of this we watched the NHC, TWC and Wunderground congratulating their meteorologists on how they really nailed the path of Matthew......see what I mean....just like todays politicians. I can tell you this for sure.... they lost any and all credibility on this island. Maybe that's a good thing though. Prepare for the worst is better then getting caught off gaurd and never again trust a meteorologist! !!!!!
Quoting 285. HarambeLivesOn:



Just one comment, I hope there are enough rooms in the White House for Bill's girlfriends to stay in cuz he never stopped cheating...common knowledge


Here's the thing; politicians don't care about you, me or anyone else but themselves. They speak of the "issues", most made up and over-glorified, to play on people's emotions, thereby winning votes.

Neither one of these "things" gives a damn about the general population, and every one of you knows it. Yet, one of these, will get at least 80 million votes. That should give everyone pause.
Quoting 286. pureet1948:




U sure?

Hurricane chances in Texas do drop off considerably after September.

Texas Hurricane History by David Roth
Quoting 249. Grothar:



Models are about 60% something will develop


All I know is if you name the next one blottosaurus, I'm leaving town tonight!
Semper Fidelis.


Quoting 260. SLU:



Obviously not!!!

Category 4 hurricane landfalls are the norm in the Atlantic basin and the damage in Haiti is consistent with a category 4 landfall.

Also, Matthew was our second major hurricane of the year when the average is 2.3 per year.

Furthermore, it's the first time we witnessed a category 5 hurricane in 9 years whereas the previous 9 year period had 9 category 5 hurricanes.

So Clinton is playing pure politics with the weather.


Well, you are wrong , because North Carolina is up to it's armpits in pig manure , floating propane tanks, and tears. Just like South Carolina last year, and Louisiana this year. To focus on the wind speed number a storm has is to miss the story. It's not the wind speed, it's 14.9 inches of rain in Fayetteville. Before that on September 29, as much as 10.5 inches of rain fell in the region. That's more than twice the average amount for the entire month of September in Fayetteville.

To focus on wind speeds is to miss the story, it's the 7% law now. Each and every storm is carrying more water vapor, period. North Carolina is just the latest example.

SLU -
Get your head around that, here's the physics of the 7% Law -

For every 1C degree rise in SST's , there is 7% more water vapor in the atmosphere. Period.

This not a left wing hoax, it's more like if you stare at the sun , you will go blind.
Quoting 287. HatterasInTheEye:







WOW, I've never seen it this way. From now on I'll entrust the safety of my family on you and I will rely on you for the hurricane forecasts!!!
Quoting 286. pureet1948:




U sure?


Earlier in this thread, a Texas landfall was discussed more than once. All depends on the timing of the highs moving from the west coast.
Nicole

296. beell
Quoting 263. hydrus:

Howdy Beell..I will say this. Judging by the water temps, current pattern, model consensus, and the time of year ( Colin was in early June ), the chances of having a system like Colin are slim to none....Although i would really dig seeing a weak tropical storm over a devastating killer hurricane affecting the Atlantic Basin...:)


Evening, Hydrus,
The early season/late season climatology of Central American gyres fits. A large low-level circulation with the potential for multiple competing vorts fits some of the model output-if you squint a bit. SST's would be a wild card for sure. Called this as having a high aggravation potential the other night. Hence the "Colin-esque" descriptor.

Given the timeline, a curiosity at this point (for me)

Some light reading from an AMS conference presentation
Presentation Poster
Abstract


18Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vort @ 150 hrs
Quoting 276. nash36:

You sound awfully bitter Nash...roll a jay now and then...It will add years to your life and put a smile on you...To be profoundly honest, i do not like what we have to vote on either. For the first time, i may not vote.
Quoting 296. beell:



Evening, Hydrus,
The early season/late season climatology of Central American gyres fits. A large low-level circulation with the potential for multiple competing vorts fits some of the model output-if you squint a bit. SST's would be a wild card for sure. Called this as having a high aggravation potential the other night. Hence the "Colin-esque" descriptor.

Given the timeline, a curiosity at this point (for me)

Some light reading from an AMS conference presentation
Presentation Poster
Abstract


18Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vort @ 150 hrs
Somehow i knew you would mention the multi vort thing....i just knew...pfft..
By the way Beell...There is a decent chance this will move west, bringing it into Central America, especially if the East to West frontal system pans out...No complaints here if that occurs...
Quoting 298. hydrus:

You sound awfully bitter Nash...roll a jay now and then...It will add years to your life and put a smile on you...To be profoundly honest, i do not like what we have to vote on either. For the first time, i may not vote.

A sad state, indeed.
But vote Independent.
The dissatisfaction needs to be seen in the numbers, and if you don't vote, there are no numbers.
Stay Strong, you guys. The World is watching, and we are Amazed.....
Quoting 295. Patrap:

Nicole


eye is clearing well should be near major status by first light maybe make 3 but it will be brief
Quoting 278. Bucsboltsfan:



You're saying it a bit nastier than I would, I'm waiting to see who will come out from behind door #3.


Carol Merrill?
Quoting 277. sharqi:

Is it rare for a typhoon to get picked up and transported across the Pacific ocean to the pacific northwest U.S.?

Well, yes in that no typhoon has ever made it AS a typhoon (it would be re-categorized as a "hurricane" once it crossed the Dateline) to the West Coast. But typhoons transitioned to extratropical storms have done so on, yes, rare occasions.
Not sure what helped the victims of other severe flooding events like Katrina or what we saw in LA this year were told, but I'd guess staying put as long as possible is the best bet (obviously at dark). Those flood waters are deep, often moving quicker than the eye can judge, and are loaded with mean critters and toxic compounds. Downed lines also increase the hazards.

I posted about people noticing how dangerous US 74 was Sunday, and several people coming to Wilmington had to turn around. I don't even think NCDOT could keep up with the rivers.

Quoting 201. Bucsboltsfan:

The team on The Weather Underground on TWC just spoke about long range models and watching the Western Caribbean. I think they picked up on it from here.


No wonder why the blog slows down!
Quoting 190. Grothar:




I dont like that front gearing up to kick it toward FL around hour 340.
Quoting 268. beell:



Record-setting PW values would seem to carry the lion's share of the attribution for this single storm. With that, a contribution to the torrential rainfall and flash flooding-but it was probably gonna rain anyway.

Near record-level SST's and currently insignificant sea-level rise are not as clear cut.

But, if the question is distilled down to a simple Yes/No answer;

Was Hurricane Matthew "likely more destructive because of climate change?", the answer is "Yes".
The "but" in your comment sees only one point of view. Mankind is in the way sometimes, and sometimes not. Weather cannot destroy what is not built. Relativity... a theory.
Does anyone know the best way to get from Wilmington to Charlotte this week?
Quoting 309. kristywoods:

Does anyone know the best way to get from Wilmington to Charlotte this week?


Not sure how the roads in northern SC are, but you could take 74 to 52 and go south following signs to Florence. Then take 76 east and you should be mostly fine. Again, I'd check both DOT's of NC and SC for details.
Quoting 249. Grothar:

Models are about 60% something will develop
Back in Grothar's day things were different. Grothar's mom sending him off to school ;)

Quoting 303. LoveReignoerMe:



Carol Merrill?


I'd vote for her!
Quoting 286. pureet1948:




U sure?


Sure am. See post #289.
Quoting 301. pottery:


A sad state, indeed.
But vote Independent.
The dissatisfaction needs to be seen in the numbers, and if you don't vote, there are no numbers.
Stay Strong, you guys. The World is watching, and we are Amazed.....
I am Independent...If I do vote, that would be natural to do so..I should mention that when I believe a candidate truly has the best interests of the state or our country at heart, i vote for them, regardless of what letter is next to there name. Finding leaders that are competent , or non-corrupt is becoming more difficult every year. The elections are absolutely hideous to watch, and beyond anything i ever dreamed would happen...There are wonderful people here, and no doubt can do what is positive for our nation, but money rules the game, more now then it ever did.


Peak seems a month late. Eyes on the wcarib. We shall see. Decent model support, so far.
316. beell
Quoting 300. hydrus:

By the way Beell...There is a decent chance this will move west, bringing it into Central America, especially if the East to West frontal system pans out...No complaints here if that occurs...


Sure! The luck of the gyrish...(sorry). From nothing at all to everything is possible. I'll give it a solid maybe...




Image Credit: Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin, L. F. Bosart, and R. D. Torn
Happy Halloween!

Quoting 293. isothunder67:



WOW, I've never seen it this way. From now on I'll entrust the safety of my family on you and I will rely on you for the hurricane forecasts!!!



How on earth did you get that out of what I wrote. ?????? OH WELL moving on.
Quoting 317. BaltimoreBrian:

Happy Halloween!



This will be my luck.... I'm heading to Galveston TX for a wedding
only to get hit with a hurricane.... on the 29th..... wow

Taco :o)
The idea of development in the western Caribbean Sea seems plausible to me. I won't be able to chase it this time, though. :P

Link
I don't know if this html loop will appear, but it shows nicely the jet over the Northeast Pacific.
Quoting 321. KoritheMan:

The idea of development in the western Caribbean Sea seems plausible to me. I won't be able to chase it this time, though. :P

I was thinking about chasing this one since I was
already going to be in Texas. But the way my luck is
running when I'm over there it will hit over here in Mobile....
Just Saying
LOL

Taco :o)
A bully is funny when they have someone on the ground; not so funny when you are the one on the ground.
Quoting 301. pottery:


A sad state, indeed.
But vote Independent.
The dissatisfaction needs to be seen in the numbers, and if you don't vote, there are no numbers.
Stay Strong, you guys. The World is watching, and we are Amazed.....
I've been pretty underwhelmed by this year's presidential race.

On the climate thing, people here who voted for today are in trouble; people who considered tomorrow are the ones with intact roofs and generators in houses away from the coastal flood zone.... unfortunately, though, Nash is right about how most people are thinking.
Quoting 324. Grothar:

A bully is funny when they have someone on the ground; not so funny when you are the one on the ground.


What analogy are you making?
Quoting 296. beell:



Evening, Hydrus,
The early season/late season climatology of Central American gyres fits. A large low-level circulation with the potential for multiple competing vorts fits some of the model output-if you squint a bit. SST's would be a wild card for sure. Called this as having a high aggravation potential the other night. Hence the "Colin-esque" descriptor.

Given the timeline, a curiosity at this point (for me)

Some light reading from an AMS conference presentation
Presentation Poster
Abstract


18Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vort @ 150 hrs

Philippe Papin does great work. He's also on Twitter, and one I'd highly recommend following if you're really into meteorology.

There was a terribly sloppy late September Central American Gyre system six years back, coincidentally named Nicole. It was so disorganized, I'm not sure I'd personally want to classify it as a tropical cyclone, a lot like Colin this year in that respect. These later season Western Caribbean storms can get very intense if they're allowed to properly consolidate, as storms like Mitch '98, Michelle '01, Wilma '05, and Paloma '08 show. However, if they fail to do so, they're instantly a candidate for worst looking tropical cyclone ever.



Image of Nicole '10 from the Wiki page (linked with the image).
Quoting 327. 1900hurricane:


Philippe Papin does great work. He's also on Twitter, and one I'd highly recommend following if you're really into meteorology.

There was a terribly sloppy late September Central American Gyre system six years back, coincidentally named Nicole. It was so disorganized, I'm not sure I'd personally want to classify it as a tropical cyclone, a lot like Colin this year in that respect. These later season Western Caribbean storms can get very intense if they're allowed to properly consolidate, as storms like Mitch '98, Michelle '01, Wilma '05, and Paloma '08 show. However, if they fail to do so, they're instantly a candidate for worst looking tropical cyclone ever.



Image of Nicole '10 from the Wiki page (linked with the image).


Nicole looked worse than Colin.
Wow


Another image of Nicole '10. This was at peak intensity of 40 kt. Glorious.

Quoting 330. 1900hurricane:

Another image of Nicole '10. This was at peak intensity of 40 kt. Glorious.




Wasn't the center near central Cuba at the time? kek
Quoting 331. KoritheMan:



Wasn't the center near central Cuba at the time? kek

Ish. The 18Z position on September 28th was at 21.0*N, 82.7*W. Certainly not near the convection.
Sure enough, I think Nicole will become a major hurricane; if you had asked me 5 days ago, I would've spat on you. Doing wonders for my seasonal forecast.
Quoting 330. 1900hurricane:

Another image of Nicole '10. This was at peak intensity of 40 kt. Glorious.


I remember this.... had been at my desk for a couple of hours in the howling rain when they called it .... free day off with no serious damage....
Why is she there guys?
Quoting 308. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


336. beell
Quoting 327. 1900hurricane:


Philippe Papin does great work. He's also on Twitter, and one I'd highly recommend following if you're really into meteorology.

There was a terribly sloppy late September Central American Gyre system six years back, coincidentally named Nicole. It was so disorganized, I'm not sure I'd personally want to classify it as a tropical cyclone, a lot like Colin this year in that respect. These later season Western Caribbean storms can get very intense if they're allowed to properly consolidate, as storms like Mitch '98, Michelle '01, Wilma '05, and Paloma '08 show. However, if they fail to do so, they're instantly a candidate for worst looking tropical cyclone ever.



Image of Nicole '10 from the Wiki page (linked with the image).


Just about to shut it down for the night-but yup, yup, yup!

Quoting 121. Guinness2013:



99L really hurt everyone's confidence I guess.
Quoting 158. StormHype:



Go back to Sept 25 and look at the GFS run 270 hours out for "Matthew". Never say never. :-O


The joke was that Grothar wrote "never trust a model more than 3 hours out".

Rationally, I assume he meant to say 36 hours, so I was trying to be comical and no one laughed :(...
Quoting 337. Guinness2013:


Quoting 121. Guinness2013:



99L really hurt everyone's confidence I guess.


The joke was that Grothar wrote "never trust a model more than 3 hours out".

Rationally, I assume he meant to say 36 hours, so I was trying to be comical and no one laughed :(...


Spend a few more hours at comic stand up.

Really, I think the Nhc did an excellent job. Considering how many people were in harm's way, it took a lot to see what would happen. Considering the terrible loss of life and damage, the news services did well by warning what we could be facing.
Quoting 333. KoritheMan:

Sure enough, I think Nicole will become a major hurricane; if you had asked me 5 days ago, I would've spat on you. Doing wonders for my seasonal forecast.


I wrote it 3 days ago and was viciously attacked.
Quoting 339. Grothar:



I wrote it 3 days ago and was viciously attacked.


That's the very reason why I try "Not" to say anything on here....

Taco :o)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2016 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 27:21:37 N Lon : 66:39:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 957.6mb/ 99.6kt
Quoting 335. 19N81W:

Why is she there guys?


This will put us at 3 majors for this year, which
I think I might have missed it by 1.
I'm thinking there might be 1 more major before the end of the season....

Taco :o)
Quoting 341. HurricaneAndre:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2016 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 27:21:37 N Lon : 66:39:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 957.6mb/ 99.6kt



So, a borderline major?
Quoting 343. octoberallover:



So, a borderline major?
I guess that's ok.
GFS a lot weaker this run. This is most likely because the western Atlantic trough is a bit farther east, enabling the ridge to be stronger over the Gulf, therefore sending it into Central America before it can consolidate. Few scenarios still on the table here, including Seymour in the east Pacific, Otto in the Atlantic, or quiet burial into Central America as a rainy cyclonic disturbance. If you ask me, I think we still have a decent shot at getting a surface low, but what comes of it after that could literally be any of those three things.
Quoting 338. Grothar:



Spend a few more hours at comic stand up.

Really, I think the Nhc did an excellent job. Considering how many people were in harm's way, it took a lot to see what would happen. Considering the terrible loss of life and damage, the news services did well by warning what we could be facing.


Hey, i'm from the midwest and 3 days of mostly accurate forecast is something I never got close to with the two tornados that hit my general vicinity. Really I can be funny.
Quoting 345. KoritheMan:

GFS a lot weaker this run. This is most likely because the western Atlantic trough is a bit farther east, enabling the ridge to be stronger over the Gulf, therefore sending it into Central America before it can consolidate. Few scenarios still on the table here, including Seymour in the east Pacific, Otto in the Atlantic, or quiet burial into Central America as a rainy cyclonic disturbance. If you ask me, I think we still have a decent shot at getting a surface low, but what comes of it after that could literally be any of those three things.


You think the 00z GFS is trash?
Quoting 347. nygiants:



You think the 00z GFS is trash?


No, it's viable, as are all the scenarios I mentioned. Remember, plausible/viable =/= likely to happen.
Quoting 269. nash36:



Two irrelevant dinosaurs trying to drum up votes with an issue that is is nowhere near #1 on voters' lists.

That's just a fact. It is not a priority with the majority of Americans.
I respectfully disagree about this not being a priority, it should be as it would threaten national security and change our standard of living, especially for people who live along the coastline, which is the majority of people in America. But things are being done to protect against the impacts of climate change in terms of sea level rise, the Army Corps of Engineers are strengthening the Levee's and Locks along the riverbanks in New Orleans by installing new flood walls and pump stations and constructing a new sea wall in Lake Borgne that will be higher to try to stop the breach of storm surge inundation. Start the video at 14:47 and you'll see some of the work being done. Earth Under Water - Worldwide Flooding | Sea Level Rise (SLR)
Quoting 348. KoritheMan:



No, it's viable, as are all the scenarios I mentioned. Remember, plausible/viable =/= likely to happen.

So yiur saying that there probably wont be a storm in carribean?
Quoting 350. nygiants:


So yiur saying that there probably wont be a storm in carribean?


Huh? No. I'm not sure how you got that from my post at all. I said that it could become Seymour in the Pacific, Otto in the Caribbean, or literally nothing at all. At this point all of those scenarios probably have a roughly equal chance of occurring.
GFS a bit to the right with Nicole at 0z.

RIP Bermuda
(Hoping a few of you might read this, as I just spent about an hour typing it up...) :-)

People keep mentioning/wondering, how everyone could "blow" the forecast for Matthew so "badly" in regard to Virginia, given today's technical and meteorological expertise... i.e., why didn't Matthew turn east sooner, and more abruptly, as had been forecast a few days before. But as a layperson, it seems much more remarkable that they can make as accurate predictions as they do. I mean, just look at the forces and processes involved....

1) If the A-B ridge, as Matthew approaches, is just a millibar or two less than forecast, and its western edge is even just two-tenths of a degree east of predictions, the hurricane would be able to move 25-30 miles (or more) north of predictions before any serious slowdown or turn.

2) If the rather large cold arrived just an hour later than predicted, that would allow Matthew to move another 10-15 miles further north (Matt was moving about 10 mph) before feeling any serious push to the east. (Total "offage" - 30-45 miles more north).

3) If the cold front's positive tilt was off by a single degree angle, Matt would be able to push further north along it, and would be driven less ENE than NNE. Someone else can do the trigonometry, but I think that would allow the hurricane to push 15-20 miles further north, and even more as time goes on, especially if the cold front is moving a trifle slower than predicted... see #2, above (total offage - about 45-65 miles).

4) If Matthew is moving just a single mile an hour faster (average) than predicted for the previous day... that's 24 miles further north for it (total offage - 70-90 miles).

5) If Matthew was strong enough, or strengthening a bit, to be able to "fight" the cold front a bit. Another member and I here the night it was off So. Carolina both commented at the time that we saw exactly that. No big, but add another 5-10 miles north. (total offage - 75-100 miles).

The combined effects of all these could be even greater, and keep in mind that New Bern, NC is only 125 miles south of Virginia Beach.

Those are some of the possible distance and direction "difference" determinants between forecasts/predictions (of 24 hours or more) and actual. But keep in mind that we're talking about huge, complex "systems" (ridge/front/hurricane) and only very small prediction errors in each, one to three days out. But all these very small, understandable errors, can add together to a greater whole.

All that, and as to rainfall intensity, you can also add in these small, possible errors.

6) If they were slightly incorrect (on the low side) of how much of the PW would actually precipitate out, as that's a slight crapshoot at the best of times, based on actual, exact values at the time, and slightly fluctuating atmospheric synoptics and configurations.

7) If they were slightly low in their estimates/understanding of the effect of Chesapeake Bay on the amount of PW, as that's a rather huge volume of water that Matthew wasn't supposed to get as close to as it did (see #1-5, above), but which could certainly add to the rainfall totals, and their location.

Again, given all the variables above, and their speed, strength, and timing, most of the time I'm totally stunned that we can rather accurately predict anything even just two days out, much less longer.

Jo
Quoting 352. KoritheMan:

GFS a bit to the right with Nicole at 0z.

RIP Bermuda


People do live there, you know...all of family, for instance.
Quoting 355. octoberallover:



People do live there, you know...all of family, for instance.


I... never said they didn't? Hope your family weathers it well! Although unless I've been misinformed, I hear Bermuda has some of the strictest building codes in the Atlantic, so if that's true I think they'll be fine.
Quoting 356. KoritheMan:



I... never said they didn't? Hope your family weathers it well! Although unless I've been misinformed, I hear Bermuda has some of the strictest building codes in the Atlantic, so if that's true I think they'll be fine.


Sorry that came off too sensitive -- just a little fed up with the coverage stateside that seems to assume Bermuda is a desolate, unpopulated rock. I think they will weather it OK, as we've done many times before. But all of this brings back memories of Fabian in '03. It was a truly terrifying experience.
Quoting 357. octoberallover:



Sorry that came off too sensitive -- just a little fed up with the coverage stateside that seems to assume Bermuda is a desolate, unpopulated rock. I think they will weather it OK, as we've done many times before. But all of this brings back memories of Fabian in '03. It was a truly terrifying experience.


I was literally joking with the "RIP" thing. I don't know about you, but I would MUCH rather be lighthearted about situations that are out of our control. What good does fretting do?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2016 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 27:24:53 N Lon : 66:42:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.6mb/102.0kt
Eye is becoming cloud free, so if it can become more organized, you will easily have a Category 3 overnight.
361. ackee
Oz GFs drops the system that would be great . The GFS has been talking system in western carribb intresting on the other hand, Oz CMC still aggressive develop the system but send the system north east agreeing with the 12z Euro run let's see what the Oz Euro say
The 0Z GFS ensembles have also backed off from development. I'm interested to see where the TUTT will set up and the highest wind shear. If the high pressure ridge that builds in behind any cold fronts is too strong it may keep the activity suppressed to the south or push it inland over Central America. In this scenario I would still expect a tropical wave/inverted trof axis stretched out from Panama towards Haiti, with a broad area of low pressure embedded that would take awhile to consolidate and also be fighting wind shear. By the time conditions became favorable it would probably move inland over Central America or into the EPAC or lift off towards the northeast into the north-central Atlantic.
Quoting 362. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The 0Z GFS ensembles have also backed off from development. I'm interested to see where the TUTT will set up and the highest wind shear. If the high pressure ridge that builds in behind any cold fronts is too strong it may keep the activity suppressed to the south or push it inland over Central America. In this scenario I would still expect a tropical wave/inverted trof axis stretched out from Panama towards Haiti, with a broad area of low pressure embedded that would take awhile to consolidate and also be fighting wind shear. By the time conditions became favorable it would probably move inland over Central America or into the EPAC or lift off towards the northeast into the north-central Atlantic.


The ensembles are weighted toward the operational, so that would make sense. I think the 0z ECMWF/EPS will be telling. Still not willing to write this off yet.
Quoting 363. KoritheMan:



The ensembles are weighted toward the operational, so that would make sense. I think the 0z ECMWF/EPS will be telling. Still not willing to write this off yet.
That's true, I was wondering if you thought in the runs previous to this one if GFS could be suffering from convective feedback, especially after the 240 hour mark? I noticed how it enlarged the system and had it moving erratically from west to east, like it didn't know what to do with it, even with a deep trough being there it ended up moving it west into the Yucatan. Or maybe, I'm just looking into the long range too much. I know better than this, but to me this doesn't make sense. Big escape route with this trough, in between two highs, a tropical storm to feel the weakness.

Quoting 364. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That's true, I was wondering if you thought in the runs previous to this one if GFS could be suffering from convective feedback, especially after the 240 hour mark? I noticed how it enlarged the system and had it moving erratically from west to east, like it didn't know what to do with it, even with a deep trough being there it ended up moving it west into the Yucatan. Or maybe, I'm just looking into the long range too much. I know better than this, but to me this doesn't make sense. Big escape route with this trough, in between two highs, a tropical storm to feel the weakness.




Beyond 240 hours might be convective feedback, but there's nothing particularly unbelievable about a 6 - 8 day surface low, which is what we were seeing for awhile on these runs. Especially not when you have (had?) the ECMWF on board as well.
ECMWF still showing development.
Glad you made it through everything, Kori, and that you probably gained some new perspective(s) on the "nature" of things in a strong and dangerous hurricane.

And nice to see you back. :-)

Jo
Quoting 368. flibinite:

Glad you made it through everything, Kori, and that you probably gained some new perspective(s) on the "nature" of things in a strong and dangerous hurricane.

And nice to see you back. :-)

Jo


I was second guessing myself going down there, lol. EWRC spared us from the worst. I'd go again if I could. Maybe next year. :)
Though lately I really do think it's a serious overstatement, yes, "there's always next year", Kori. Good luck to you, and all, then.

Jo
Quoting 370. flibinite:

Though lately I really do think it's a serious overstatement, yes, "there's always next year", Kori. Good luck to you, and all, then.

Jo


It WAS a serious overstatement until this year. This is the most normal season I've seen in years. Matthew singlehandedly made up for all the trash storms of the last few years all on its own. It was definitely more reminiscent of many of the 1995-2008 storms, that's for sure.
I agree, Kori, but I wasn't talking about the "weather" in my comment. That said, I'll let it drop, as I hate when people post sociopolitical things on this blog, be it the election, or the ramifications of GW, or how people allow themselves to be spoon-fed this or that opinion or belief by a media that's forgotten it's real, historical purpose in this country.

That you and yours are okay, and have learned/felt things of import, is enough for me. :-)

Jo
From the OP: "The SHIPS model in its 12Z Tuesday run was giving Nicole a 22% chance of rapidly intensifying into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane by Wednesday morning."
#check :)
Wednesday morning 5 am update on Nicole:
Location: 27.9N 67.0W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
"An Air Force plane will be in the eye of Nicole around 1200 UTC this morning, and will provide an intensity update.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some additional strengthening in the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be at its peak in intensity while it moves near Bermuda."
Quoting 250. RobertWC:



MIAMI — During a campaign rally in Miami Tuesday, Hillary Clinton said Hurricane Matthew was "likely more destructive because of climate change."

Clinton was campaigning alongside former Vice President Al Gore, who has become a leading climate change activist since leaving politics. She said near record high ocean temperatures "contributed to the torrential rainfall and the flash flooding" from the storm, particularly in the Carolinas.

Clinton also said that rising sea levels mean Matthew's "storm surge was higher and the flooding was more severe."


Correct to the letter. Misleading title.
Quoting 309. kristywoods:

Does anyone know the best way to get from Wilmington to Charlotte this week?

BELL JetRanger
Hundreds of jellyfish invade New Zealand coastline
Warmer sea temperatures possible reason for mass jellyfish landings on beaches from Nelson in the south island to Whangarei in the far north
The Guardian, Eleanor Ainge Roy in Dunedin, Wednesday 12 October 2016 06.25 BST
Thousands of kilometres of New Zealand coastline have been invaded by giant jellyfish, a phenomenon that has been linked to warmer sea temperatures.
In the last month mass jellyfish landings have been reported on beaches from Nelson in the south island to Whangarei in the top of the north island.
The Department of Conservation suspects more mass landings may have gone unreported or unsighted.
The jellyfish have been identified by marine biology expert Dr Lisa-ann Gershwin as Lion’s Mane – the world’s largest jellyfish – in Whangarei, and its close relative Desmonema in Nelson.
Gershwin, who is director of the Australian Marine Stinger Advisory Services, said the invasion suggested a significant bloom in the local jellyfish population, but the presence of them so early in the season was strange. ...
Puget Sound Weather Geek: Super Typhoon Songda threatens the Northwest
... This has the potential to be an historically catastrophic windstorm for the Northwest – the effects could be similar to the major Hanukkah Eve windstorm of December 2006.
Meteorologists have not yet issued warnings due to the lack of certainty in the forecast. ...


Series of October storms to slam B.C.’s South Coast
Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island as a series of menacing storms promise to bring heavy rains and high winds to B.C.’s South Coast between Wednesday and Sunday. ...

The season is changing rapidly here in Northern Maine.
From the Caribou Weather Service:
"Heavy riming atop Mt. Katahdin yesterday. Photo courtesy Baxter State Park."

Via Twitter: Link
European media are paying attention to the devasting aftermath of Matthew in NC.

Record flooding in North Carolina after Hurricane Matthew
BBC, 6 hours ago
Heavy flooding has occurred in North Carolina after Hurricane Matthew dumped more than a foot (30cm) of rain into parts of the state.
The hurricane and its aftermath have been blamed for at least 35 deaths in the the US so far, at least 17 in the state. ...


Death toll climbs as floods swamp North Carolina after Hurricane Matthew
by Reuters, Wednesday, 12 October 2016 00:53 GMT
Quoting 379. barbamz:

Puget Sound Weather Geek: Super Typhoon Songda threatens the Northwest
... This has the potential to be an historically catastrophic windstorm for the Northwest – the effects could be similar to the major Hanukkah Eve windstorm of December 2006.
Meteorologists have not yet issued warnings due to the lack of certainty in the forecast. ...


Series of October storms to slam B.C.’s South Coast
Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island as a series of menacing storms promise to bring heavy rains and high winds to B.C.’s South Coast between Wednesday and Sunday. ...



I was just looking at outlook maps from NOAA for the coming 5 days from: Link
Upper west coast looks to be receiving a repeated hammering starting on Friday.
In regards to Songda sweeping straight across the Pacific like that: Isn't that a rare occurrence? Seems like most typhoons curve up towards the Gulf of Alaska verses the above track?
All models agree, Nicole taking a pit-stop south of Newfoundland...

387. SLU
Quoting 387. SLU:


Hope this is not true
06Z GFS takes the potential system in the western carribean to near the western tip of the Yucatan. Also looks like a front dropping down in the central US at the same time.
Sunrise over Hurricane Nicole this morning...
Quoting 353. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is cool, check this out!

Capital Weather Gang
100 years of hurricanes hitting and missing Florida, visualized
By Lazaro Gamio
Oct. 7, 2016





I like how they use line thickness to illustrate storm strength. Nice addition to color change
Hey guys! Did you know you can watch Bermuda go through Nicole at this website:

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

You can also visit other ports.."watch another webcam" at upper left pull down menu. These sites saved my sanity the two years I lived in AZ...in the desert...no ocean....no tropics...


Good morning Nicole!
A welcomed change in our temps here in S Miami Dade. First time we are not in the mid 90s in a long time, let's hope it continues!
Quoting 392. dealsbeachdia:

Hey guys! Did you know you can watch Bermuda go through Nicole at this website:

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

.


Great link, thank you! The sound caught me off guard though, lol. Took me a minute to find the volume control at the top of the screen. ...Should make for great viewing when Nicole swings by. :)
Interesting read (not sure whether this article has already been posted in here):
Flights probe jet stream role in floods
BBC, David Shukman, Science Editor, 29 September 2016
A major international effort is under way to research one of the greatest unknowns in weather forecasting - the influence of the jet stream.
For the first time, a fleet of drones and planes is being deployed from the United States, Iceland and Britain to investigate the flow of air crossing the Atlantic.
Jet streams are powerful currents of high-altitude wind that govern the patterns of weather down on the surface.
The one over the Atlantic has frequently driven storms over Britain, most recently last winter, causing devastating floods.
Early results indicate that the jet stream is narrower, stronger and more sharply defined than predicted by computer models - which could have implications for weather forecasts.
Although forecasting has improved massively in recent years, a particular kind of disturbance in the jet stream over America is blamed for about 100 late or inaccurate forecasts of extreme rainfall over Europe in the past decade.
The research project, known as Nawdex, involves scientists from more than 30 institutes and organisations from more than half a dozen countries. ...

Whole article (with references to hurricanes) see link above.

More about NAWDEX.

Cute Nicole visiting Bermuda tomorrow.
NBC just reported up to 4 inches of rain and 4-6 foots surge for Bermuda. Hopefully they have a good drainage system there.
.
400. vis0
For those wundering could the USofA have 2 groups (opposing coasts) of "Hydras"?

Due to Atmos v2.0 i would bet yes, when ? that's the big money question... Lets OBSERVE nature with the utmost respect...

CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA thru ERAU
AOi::    ePAC/western USofA
T&D:: As provided by the gov. on  animation
NOTES:: 1st frame for reference, pay attention to frame intervals in green txt.







Quoting 398. unknowncomic:

NBC just reported up to 40 inches of rain and 4-6 foots surge for Bermuda. Hopefully they have a good drainage system there.


Are you sure you didn't hear that wrong? NHC has 4-8 inches and most models are in agreement with around those amounts. Link

Nicole still has about another day to strengthen.



Perhaps becoming our 3rd major by tonight/tomorrow morning.
Quoting 388. bupsin101:

Hope this is not true


GEM model with no other model support at the moment. So that's a very low probability of it happening.
Quoting 352. KoritheMan:

GFS a bit to the right with Nicole at 0z.

RIP Bermuda

Are you saying that Bermuda could be WIPED OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH?!
Quoting 380. SPShaw:

The season is changing rapidly here in Northern Maine.
From the Caribou Weather Service:
"Heavy riming atop Mt. Katahdin yesterday. Photo courtesy Baxter State Park."

Via Twitter: Link

Sign of things to come..Winter will be pretty rough this year for the eastern half...And early for some areas..jmo..
Lighten up Francis..

😁✌


Gonzalo of 2014


VS

Nicole of 2016


Expected effects of Nicole on Bermuda
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.

VS

Expected effects of Gonzalo on Bermuda

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Does anyone expect the effects on Bermuda from Nicole to be similar to Gonzalo of 2014? I'd say it's quite possible.
Good Morning all. While the blog is relatively quiet I wanted to add something to the ideas for helping children through hurricanes/evacuations that was posted last week. I have a sea turtle night light that's actually a children's toy. It lays flat on the bed and shines stars up on the ceiling. Some of them have different colored stars and they all have little night lights too. There are a few different animals but the sea turtle covers the most space on the ceiling. We're adults and we found it invaluable during Matthew. It gives off a lot of very soft light and is very soothing. It also automatically turns off after a time so it doesn't drain the battery too fast.
Our Record Warmth: Pointing out the Obvious
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 12:18 AM CDT on October 04, 2016
l

If you take the warming trend associated with carbon dioxide warming and add the El Niño warmth, it is reasonable to expect record high global temperatures. If there were going to be a significant break in the record, the cooling related to La Niña would be a likely cause of such a break. Back in the late spring, the El Niño ended, and we went into an El Niño-neutral time. The streak of record warm months continued. We have been flirting with the ocean and atmosphere moving towards La Niña, and for a while a La Niña was predicted. If you read the current (September-October) summaries from the seasonal prediction centers listed below, they are, now, predicting El Niño-neutral conditions as the most likely pattern at year’s end. The take away message, the impact on global temperatures associated with El Niño and La Niña variability should be close to zero. Not too warm, not too cold.
Quoting 382. SPShaw:


I was just looking at outlook maps from NOAA for the coming 5 days from: Link
Upper west coast looks to be receiving a repeated hammering starting on Friday.
In regards to Songda sweeping straight across the Pacific like that: Isn't that a rare occurrence? Seems like most typhoons curve up towards the Gulf of Alaska verses the above track?
Quoting 382. SPShaw:


I was just looking at outlook maps from NOAA for the coming 5 days from: Link
Upper west coast looks to be receiving a repeated hammering starting on Friday.
In regards to Songda sweeping straight across the Pacific like that: Isn't that a rare occurrence? Seems like most typhoons curve up towards the Gulf of Alaska verses the above track?
Quoting 382. SPShaw:


I was just looking at outlook maps from NOAA for the coming 5 days from: Link
Upper west coast looks to be receiving a repeated hammering starting on Friday.
In regards to Songda sweeping straight across the Pacific like that: Isn't that a rare occurrence? Seems like most typhoons curve up towards the Gulf of Alaska verses the above track?


Uncommon, but it happens. For instance...this could be a good analog for the weekend: Link
Quoting 406. 62901IL:
Does anyone expect the effects on Bermuda from Nicole to be similar to Gonzalo of 2014? I'd say it's quite possible.


I would say the effects could be worse than Gonzalo. Gonzalo was a weakening category 2 when it impacted Bermuda. Nicole will likely be an intensifying cat 2/cat 3 on approach. Could be a similar situation to hurricane Fabian from 2003.
Quoting 410. Envoirment:



I would say the effects could be worse than Gonzalo. Gonzalo was a weakening category 2 when it impacted Bermuda. Nicole will likely be an intensifying cat 2/cat 3 on approach. Could be a similar situation to hurricane Fabian from 2003.


I certainly hope you are wrong, but nearly everything says you're right.

Bermuda should be at Red Alert.
Mission finished

Quoting 354. flibinite:

(Hoping a few of you might read this, as I just spent about an hour typing it up...) :-)

People keep mentioning/wondering, how everyone could "blow" the forecast for Matthew so "badly" in regard to Virginia, given today's technical and meteorological expertise... i.e., why didn't Matthew turn east sooner, and more abruptly, as had been forecast a few days before. But as a layperson, it seems much more remarkable that they can make as accurate predictions as they do. I mean, just look at the forces and processes involved....

1) If the A-B ridge, as Matthew approaches, is just a millibar or two less than forecast, and its western edge is even just two-tenths of a degree east of predictions, the hurricane would be able to move 25-30 miles (or more) north of predictions before any serious slowdown or turn.

2) If the rather large cold arrived just an hour later than predicted, that would allow Matthew to move another 10-15 miles further north (Matt was moving about 10 mph) before feeling any serious push to the east. (Total "offage" - 30-45 miles more north).

3) If the cold front's positive tilt was off by a single degree angle, Matt would be able to push further north along it, and would be driven less ENE than NNE. Someone else can do the trigonometry, but I think that would allow the hurricane to push 15-20 miles further north, and even more as time goes on, especially if the cold front is moving a trifle slower than predicted... see #2, above (total offage - about 45-65 miles).

4) If Matthew is moving just a single mile an hour faster (average) than predicted for the previous day... that's 24 miles further north for it (total offage - 70-90 miles).

5) If Matthew was strong enough, or strengthening a bit, to be able to "fight" the cold front a bit. Another member and I here the night it was off So. Carolina both commented at the time that we saw exactly that. No big, but add another 5-10 miles north. (total offage - 75-100 miles).

The combined effects of all these could be even greater, and keep in mind that New Bern, NC is only 125 miles south of Virginia Beach.

Those are some of the possible distance and direction "difference" determinants between forecasts/predictions (of 24 hours or more) and actual. But keep in mind that we're talking about huge, complex "systems" (ridge/front/hurricane) and only very small prediction errors in each, one to three days out. But all these very small, understandable errors, can add together to a greater whole.

All that, and as to rainfall intensity, you can also add in these small, possible errors.

6) If they were slightly incorrect (on the low side) of how much of the PW would actually precipitate out, as that's a slight crapshoot at the best of times, based on actual, exact values at the time, and slightly fluctuating atmospheric synoptics and configurations.

7) If they were slightly low in their estimates/understanding of the effect of Chesapeake Bay on the amount of PW, as that's a rather huge volume of water that Matthew wasn't supposed to get as close to as it did (see #1-5, above), but which could certainly add to the rainfall totals, and their location.

Again, given all the variables above, and their speed, strength, and timing, most of the time I'm totally stunned that we can rather accurately predict anything even just two days out, much less longer.

Jo


Sure you might see it this way and I might because we are more interested in these things then most average people. The problem arises when it portrayed to the public and emergency management that it is almost absolutely going to do what the models say. As we saw with Matthew it wasn't even close and put many very unprepared people in harms way.
Quoting 390. SPShaw:

Sunrise over Hurricane Nicole this morning...

Look at that killer shadow from the cirrus deck...Neat


just dont see where the ghost storm comes from.......we cant get any reasonable condition to support rain
Nicole with Bermuda to NNE

Quoting 414. Patrap:

Mission finished




What's your take Patrap? On and off struggle with some dry air?
Quoting 415. HatterasInTheEye:



Sure you might see it this way and I might because we are more interested in these things then most average people. The problem arises when it portrayed to the public and emergency management that it is almost absolutely going to do what the models say. As we saw with Matthew it wasn't even close and put many very unprepared people in harms way.
Good morning Hatteras..So your saying that NWS, NHC, WPC, WU, Your local news and weather and NOAA, which everybody has access to got it wrong.? If thats the case, may as well chalk it up to an " Act of God " because at those odds, It likely was..I said here recently, that People in extreme North Carolina and Eastern Virginia are not oblivious to the reach of a dying hurricane, and are storm savvy all the way around...Maybe you could be a little forgiving, considering it really is a tough job to predict what the interaction between the Gulf Stream, rather potent frontal system, and a what was a very powerful but dying hurricane into mix...
Songda

422. elioe
Now the local weather forecast is stereotypically autumn-like. Generally overcast for seven days straight, but no rain within that timeframe. Temperatures between 0 and +5 Celsius. So, a good weather to sit in front of computer and to follow hurricanes. :)
Freaking nuts,


😱🌞🌎

Olahoma Gov. Mary Fallin Declares ‘Oilfield Prayer Day’ To Ask God To Protect The State’s Oil Industry

Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin wants God to help the state’s ailing oil and natural gas industry.

The Republican governor originally issued a proclamation inviting Christians to “thank God for the blessing created by the oil and natural gas industry and to seek His wisdom and ask for protection,” the Progressive Secular Humanist blog reported.

A new version of the “Oilfield Prayer Day” proclamation calls on everyone to thank a deity, declaring that “people of faith acknowledge such natural resources are created by God.”

“There was some question about whether it was one particular faith or another, so we just amended it to say all faiths,” Fallin told The Associated Press. “There are many people suffering right now who have lost their jobs in the energy sector ... there are a lot of families who have been hurt, and I think prayer is always a good thing, for anyone.”

The proclamation was requested by the Oilfield Christian Fellowship.

“The oilfield is experiencing an economic disaster with catastrophic impact on the industry,” Baptist General Convention of Oklahoma oilpatch chaplain Tom Beddow told the Baptist Messenger. “The most recognizable need is for the recovery of economic loss, but the greatest need in these depressive times is hope... the hope that comes from God.”

Not everyone was impressed by the governmental plea for help from a higher power.

“Perhaps it would be more prudent for Gov. Mary Fallin and the Republican-dominated legislature to stop praying to the oil industry and start passing laws to make their state’s oil billionaires pay their fair share of taxes,” Ruth Milka of Nation of Change wrote.

The industry has suffered from cheaper energy prices. Earlier this year, NPR reported that lower prices were a cause for the state’s $900 million budget gap, as well. It’s unclear if the observant should ask God to raise those prices.

In recent years, the state has also experienced a series of earthquakes that was blamed on wastewater from oil and natural gas production. A 5.6 temblor last month tied the record for the strongest quake in the state’s history.

Oilfield Prayer Day is Thursday.
Quoting 417. 19N81W:



just dont see where the ghost storm comes from.......we cant get any reasonable condition to support rain


GEFS dropped it completely and GFS only shows a broad low in the medium range.

Our weather is also disappointing. The rain stayed over the Windwards or S Leewards... or north of us for 3 weeks.
Quoting 424. Patrap:

Freaking nuts,


😱🌞🌎

Olahoma Gov. Mary Fallin Declares ‘Oilfield Prayer Day’ To Ask God To Protect The State’s Oil Industry

Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin wants God to help the state’s ailing oil and natural gas industry.

The Republican governor originally issued a proclamation inviting Christians to “thank God for the blessing created by the oil and natural gas industry and to seek His wisdom and ask for protection,” the Progressive Secular Humanist blog reported.

A new version of the “Oilfield Prayer Day” proclamation calls on everyone to thank a deity, declaring that “people of faith acknowledge such natural resources are created by God.”

“There was some question about whether it was one particular faith or another, so we just amended it to say all faiths,” Fallin told The Associated Press. “There are many people suffering right now who have lost their jobs in the energy sector ... there are a lot of families who have been hurt, and I think prayer is always a good thing, for anyone.”

The proclamation was requested by the Oilfield Christian Fellowship.

“The oilfield is experiencing an economic disaster with catastrophic impact on the industry,” Baptist General Convention of Oklahoma oilpatch chaplain Tom Beddow told the Baptist Messenger. “The most recognizable need is for the recovery of economic loss, but the greatest need in these depressive times is hope... the hope that comes from God.”

Not everyone was impressed by the governmental plea for help from a higher power.

“Perhaps it would be more prudent for Gov. Mary Fallin and the Republican-dominated legislature to stop praying to the oil industry and start passing laws to make their state’s oil billionaires pay their fair share of taxes,” Ruth Milka of Nation of Change wrote.

The industry has suffered from cheaper energy prices. Earlier this year, NPR reported that lower prices were a cause for the state’s $900 million budget gap, as well. It’s unclear if the observant should ask God to raise those prices.

In recent years, the state has also experienced a series of earthquakes that was blamed on wastewater from oil and natural gas production. A 5.6 temblor last month tied the record for the strongest quake in the state’s history.

Oilfield Prayer Day is Thursday.
I guess the good Guvna did not read the " Being Good Stewards Towards the Earth " part in the Bible....Reality may just take the wind from her Proverbial Christian Sails...
Quoting 417. 19N81W:



just dont see where the ghost storm comes from.......we cant get any reasonable condition to support rain
Good morning...Models still too far out, and things happen fast by you... I should mention the water vapor image you have up is misleading, the air may have more moisture than it appears.
Quoting 424. Patrap:

JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;)

Good Morning WU,

This morning the Special Weather Statement has been changed to a High Wind Watch for the immediate storm possible tomorrow.

Also, Dr. Cliff Mass, an atmospheric science professor at the University of Washington, has updated his blog, which is full of fun filled information about Thursday and Saturday's potential storms! IF the Saturday storm hits 955mb it will tie the epic Columbus Day Storm. The Columbus Day Storm also got a lot of it's energy from Pacific Typhoon Frieda... I wasn't born yet for the 1962 Columbus Day Storm, but the damage is still quite visible in old growth forests as a great many very large trees were felled that still remain on the ground to this day.

Methinks I may have trouble flying to Ohio on Saturday...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
323 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR- WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA- ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA- EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA- NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
323 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS COULD RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS LIKELY PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WINDS IN THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR COULD REACH 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WINDS...IF THEY OCCUR...COULD BREAK TREE LIMBS AND TOPPLE SMALL TREES...AND THIS IS OCCASIONALLY A CAUSE OF FATALITIES DURING WESTERN WASHINGTON WIND STORMS. IN ADDITION...POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 TO 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


Well while God hears every prayer, I doubt he seriously is interested in anything to do with profit or monetary gain. It say's in the gospels see the fowl of the air, they neither reap or sow;; they have no money but God provides for them. are we better than the fowl of the air? I think that sums up what he would think about a prayer for money. God Bless have a great day.
Quoting 387. SLU:




Deja Vu man? No man not Haiti again that would be a serious disaster. Hope that's not true. They suffered enough.
Wonder what the 12z models are going to see about this potential future SW Carribean Storm
Quoting 431. bigwes6844:



Deja Vu man? No man not Haiti again that would be a serious disaster. Hope that's not true. They suffered enough.


The situ in Haiti currently is a disaster, as I was on a conference call yesterday.



Quoting 420. hydrus:

Good morning Hatteras..So your saying that NWS, NHC, WPC, WU, Your local news and weather and NOAA, which everybody has access to got it wrong.? If thats the case, may as well chalk it up to an " Act of God " because at those odds, It likely was..I said here recently, that People in extreme North Carolina and Eastern Virginia are not oblivious to the reach of a dying hurricane, and are storm savvy all the way around...Maybe you could be a little forgiving, considering it really is a tough job to predict what the interaction between the Gulf Stream, rather potent frontal system, and a what was a very powerful but dying hurricane into mix...


Morning hydrus....yes I am being hard on them. It's the hype sent by the TWC, NHC, ect.... that the models will be right that causes local mets, emergency management and people to let down their guard. The hype should not be there and more emphasis should be on the fact the models could be very wrong. But then that takes away the hero factor and how could we live without that today.
Not to be controversial but is it possible to say that Haiti may not be recoverable?
Have countries every been "shut down"?

Quoting 433. Patrap:



The situ in Haiti currently is a disaster, as I was on a conference call yesterday.


PGB
Quoting 436. 19N81W:

Not to be controversial but is it possible to say that Haiti may not be recoverable?
Have countries every been "shut down"?




Sorry,but that does not compute in my brain housing group.

Quoting 433. Patrap:



The situ in Haiti currently is a disaster, as I was on a conference call yesterday.



I cant even explain how much help there gonna need. It's really sad Pat.
440. OKsky
Quoting 424. Patrap:

Freaking nuts,


%uD83D%uDE31%uD83C%uDF1E%uD83C%uDF0E




.....at least it won't do anything at all.
Quoting 437. aquak9:

PGB


propeller gear box? professional game board? Pseudo-Goldstone Boson?
ya I know its out there.....
I have seen the images
we have given tons from Cayman and continue to
lets just hope it all gets to where it is supposed to go..
Quoting 438. Patrap:



Sorry,but that does not compute in my brain housing group.


Quoting 439. bigwes6844:


I cant even explain how much help there gonna need. It's really sad Pat.


We are,portlight,gearing up to assist in a humanitarian push.

We have a asset en route and will have the plan published in the portlight featured blog entry here,as soon as it is finalized.

We have many contacts there from our post earthquake relief mission in 2010.

Quoting 432. nygiants:

Wonder what the 12z models are going to see about this potential future SW Carribean Storm
yes indeed,watching the models closely
west coast USA stay alert and safe over there..........................................HAZ ARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
512 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-131215-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY
INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
512 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAY REGION.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG AND WET PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. RAIN MAY REACH AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE NORTH BAY AND LOCALLY SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...LARGE
OCEAN SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN...AGAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY...AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HAZARDS FROM THESE STORM SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND INCLUDE...

* DRIVING HAZARDS: THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
OF THE SEASON. ACCUMULATED OIL ON ROAD SURFACES WILL RESULT IN
SLICK ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION...AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OF DRY
WEATHER DRIVERS WILL BE UNACCUSTOMED TO DRIVING IN WET WEATHER
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS.

* FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS IN ROADWAYS MAY LEAD TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN PONDING ON ROADWAYS...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

* WINDS: LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST.

* WAVES: LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE AND ON AREA BEACHES. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
FRIDAY.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
WEATHER INFORMATION.


$$

Quoting 443. Patrap:



We are,portlight,gearing up to assist in a humanitarian push.

We have a asset en route and will have the plan published in the portlight featured blog entry here,as soon as it is finalized.

We have many contacts there from our post earthquake relief mission in 2010.



Thank you Pat! That is a really awesome thing you guys are doing. I really feel so bad for those people when I go to sleep at night but all I do is pray and hope for better days for them. They been through too much with so little they have.
Quoting 409. zczczc:



Uncommon, but it happens. For instance...this could be a good analog for the weekend: Link


That link points to the Great Coastal Gale of 2007, and was a unique event. I think the closer analog is Columbus Day Storm at this point, but the lessons learned from Great Coastal Gale of 2007 should be heeded - e.g. don't be caught by highs winds. Me in Norcal, I'm just hoping for a nice, steady rain with some reasonable gusts (Sacramento area) - but will be prepared in case it's more than that.
Port Bermuda Webcam [Link]

Still looking for a cam on the south-facing beaches
Quoting 447. CraigsIsland:



That link points to the Great Coastal Gale of 2007, and was a unique event. I think the closer analog is Columbus Day Storm at this point, but the lessons learned from Great Coastal Gale of 2007 should be heeded - e.g. don't be caught by highs winds. Me in Norcal, I'm just hoping for a nice, steady rain with some reasonable gusts (Sacramento area) - but will be prepared in case it's more than that.
Yes. I was thinking along those line re: Columbus Day Storm. All depends where it comes in along the coast. You are wise to keep an eye on it. I'm also thinking, it'd be a great time to be out at Bodega Bay... or Bandon... or on top of Mt. Dallas away from trees.... we'll see.
36 hrs out on 12z GFS looks a little more south than Columbus Day 1962


Ps. For those who might be upset by the west coast discussion and don't realize forward-moving typhoon remnants are moving in, yes, the imminent west coast storm is tropics-related.
Quoting 435. HatterasInTheEye:



Morning hydrus....yes I am being hard on them. It's the hype sent by the TWC, NHC, ect.... that the models will be right that causes local mets, emergency management and people to let down their guard. The hype should not be there and more emphasis should be on the fact the models could be very wrong. But then that takes away the hero factor and how could we live without that today.
Point taken H, but in lies the truth that these systems, regardless of the hype, hero factor, models, EM, and the occasional glass of orange lemonade, at the end of the day, these air complex air/ocean interactions, and you could probably take every Met that ever lived, wire them together with the best computers have to offer, and still miss a forecast. We do in my eyes, have the best weather forecasters in the world right here at WU and the other weather offices, and it is experience, not so much computer models, that make up the most accurate forecasts and predictions. Suffice it to say, I have almost lost my life several times due to botched forecasts ( especially decades ago ), and some of the people I knew did die, understand your frustration...Try to forgive, besides , many of these people are actually underpaid...Ask a Met at the NWS what he makes...:)
Nicole's ADT estimate is 5.8/110kts... probably close to a 3 now. Link
Quoting 415. HatterasInTheEye:



Sure you might see it this way and I might because we are more interested in these things then most average people. The problem arises when it portrayed to the public and emergency management that it is almost absolutely going to do what the models say. As we saw with Matthew it wasn't even close and put many very unprepared people in harms way.
I'm wondering how much of that portrayal is NHC. Since I am not sure whether the affected areas in NC were in the cone, I'm reluctant to assume how much preparation should have occurred.

I'm also thinking about Erika last year and how little effort was made to communicate the SHAPE of the system and the location of the heaviest rain to the involved parties.
Quoting 403. 62901IL:


Are you saying that Bermuda could be WIPED OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH?!


What clown is this!

I live in Bermuda, people will be back at work on Friday! I will be playing golf on Sat afternoon. The storm is strong, it will be a direct hit, seen it and heard it all before! We don't play around here!

Quoting 452. BahaHurican:

I'm wondering how much of that portrayal is NHC. Since I am not sure whether the affected areas in NC were in the cone, I'm reluctant to assume how much preparation should have occurred.

I'm also thinking about Erika last year and how little effort was made to communicate the SHAPE of the system and the location of the heaviest rain to the involved parties.


The OBX and Hampton Roads were taken out of the cone when the NHC went with the model guidance of the loop de loop. Don't think they were in it since but someone with those images saved can clarify.
Quoting 450. hydrus:

Point taken H, but in lies the truth that these systems, regardless of the hype, hero factor, models, EM, and the occasional glass of orange lemonade, at the end of the day, these air complex air/ocean interactions, and you could probably take every Met that ever lived, wire them together with the best computers have to offer, and still miss a forecast. We do in my eyes, have the best weather forecasters in the world right here at WU and the other weather offices, and it is experience, not so much computer models, that make up the most accurate forecasts and predictions. Suffice it to say, I have almost lost my life several times due to botched forecasts ( especially decades ago ), and some of the people I knew did die, understand your frustration...Try to forgive, besides , many of these people are actually underpaid...Ask a Met at the NWS what he makes...:)


Dr. Masters admitted to blowing the forecast for the hurricane's effects on the OBX and Hampton Roads in either the previous entry or the one before that. Actually it may have been a reply to your comment so why am I telling you this lol
Quoting 449. Barefootontherocks:

Yes. I was thinking along those line re: Columbus Day Storm. All depends where it comes in along the coast. You are wise to keep an eye on it. I'm also thinking, it'd be a great time to be out at Bodega Bay... or Bandon... or on top of Mt. Dallas away from trees.... we'll see.
36 hrs out on 12z GFS looks a little more south than Columbus Day 1962


Ps. For those who might be upset by the west coast discussion and don't realize forward-moving typhoon remnants are moving in, yes, the imminent west coast storm is tropics-related.


Absolutely, where it tracks/deepens etc. will all be important for higher gusts/higher rainwater rates.

The big concern around CA will be wind and not so much as rain due to unsaturated grounds. We need the rain like Fish need water.

If this storm is anything like the 2007 storm in terms of impacts, this story is completely relevant. It pales in comparison to some other current weather events, but for people impacted, this event has our attention.

On another note, I really hope the UN sends in relief to Haiti. Horrific scenario.
This is looking very serious for Bermuda..I hope they are gearing up for a powerful hurricane...It looks like it will be a cat-4, and i wont say the other number...but who knows...

Quoting 455. win1gamegiantsplease:



Dr. Masters admitted to blowing the forecast for the hurricane's effects on the OBX and Hampton Roads in either the previous entry or the one before that. Actually it may have been a reply to your comment so why am I telling you this lol
Howdy...Yep...Read it, and addressed it...The forecast was good up until Matt reached the Carolina's, then the forecast was off...This has actually been covered several times now, but keeps resurfacing...no surprise really
Quoting 453. DevilsIsles:



What clown is this!

I live in Bermuda, people will be back at work on Friday! I will be playing golf on Sat afternoon. The storm is strong, it will be a direct hit, seen it and heard it all before! We don't play around here!


I certainly hope so...Looks ominous.
Quoting 457. hydrus:

This is looking very serious for Bermuda..I hope they are gearing up for a powerful hurricane...It looks like it will be a cat-4, and i wont say the other number...but who knows...




Looks quite similar to Gaston



Just needs to wrap around convection in the eastern part some more. Recon is out in a couple hours so will be interesting what they find. Eye is looking very good.
Quoting 449. Barefootontherocks:

Yes. I was thinking along those line re: Columbus Day Storm. All depends where it comes in along the coast. You are wise to keep an eye on it. I'm also thinking, it'd be a great time to be out at Bodega Bay... or Bandon... or on top of Mt. Dallas away from trees.... we'll see.
36 hrs out on 12z GFS looks a little more south than Columbus Day 1962


Ps. For those who might be upset by the west coast discussion and don't realize forward-moving typhoon remnants are moving in, yes, the imminent west coast storm is tropics-related.
It's in the Doc's discussion, which makes it the topic.
462. MahFL
Quoting 452. BahaHurican:

I'm wondering how much of that portrayal is NHC. Since I am not sure whether the affected areas in NC were in the cone..


The NHC stresses many times bad weather will not be confined to the cone. The people ( generally ), know if a hurricane heads to the Carolina's it's going to be a bad thing.
Quoting 353. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is cool, check this out!

Capital Weather Gang
100 years of hurricanes hitting and missing Florida, visualized
By Lazaro Gamio
Oct. 7, 2016




Look at the stretch from 1945-1950. 5 seasons out of a 6 season stretch with a major hurricane going through the Miami/ Fort Lauderdale area. Could you imagine that today?
Quoting 461. BahaHurican:

It's in the Doc's discussion, which makes it the topic.
Thank you. Focused on Matthew, I missed that!
(Marine forecast from Cape Mendocino CA north to Florence OR)

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
857 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY...

.STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY. GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
STORM FORCE WINDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BECOME VERY
HIGH THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
AND EVEN HIGHER SEAS SATURDAY. A THIRD STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN
SHELTERED PORTS UNTIL THIS SERIES OF STORMS PASSES.
Nice Big Eye on Nicole. Stay safe Bermuda!
Quoting 436. 19N81W:

Not to be controversial but is it possible to say that Haiti may not be recoverable?
Have countries every been "shut down"?



Well, they could implode, like Syria did following the new climate's hyperdrought. And that country was far richer, with far better standards of living, better infrastructure etc than Haiti.
Quoting 434. pingon:





I believe Tip was also the most extensive tropical system on record, covering an area equal to about half the US.
Quoting 462. MahFL:



The NHC stresses many times bad weather will not be confined to the cone. The people ( generally ), know if a hurricane heads to the Carolina's it's going to be a bad thing.


Just my 2 cents -- I live on the OBX and I honestly don't know if we were in the cone or not when Matthew hit and I didn't care because I knew there was still a very good chance we were going to have problems. As I posted a few days ago, one of our Hampton Roads mets said Thursday night (just as I was reading the same thing on this blog) that it was going to be closer than expected. Right then I knew it wasn't going to be fun and continued my preparations. As you all say don't let your guard down.
Quoting 457. hydrus:

This is looking very serious for Bermuda..I hope they are gearing up for a powerful hurricane...It looks like it will be a cat-4, and i wont say the other number...but who knows...



Hopefully Bermuda gets the less severe west side with minimal damage.

Typhoon Songda ripping along across the North Pacific, starting to show signs of transition as it hits sub par SSTs.
Quoting 464. LiveToFish0430:


Look at the stretch from 1945-1950. 5 seasons out of a 6 season stretch with a major hurricane going through the Miami/ Fort Lauderdale area. Could you imagine that today?
It will happen again, and probably many times over.
Quoting 456. CraigsIsland:



Absolutely, where it tracks/deepens etc. will all be important for higher gusts/higher rainwater rates.

The big concern around CA will be wind and not so much as rain due to unsaturated grounds. We need the rain like Fish need water.

If this storm is anything like the 2007 storm in terms of impacts, this story is completely relevant. It pales in comparison to some other current weather events, but for people impacted, this event has our attention.

On another note, I really hope the UN sends in relief to Haiti. Horrific scenario.
NorCal and NW WA are home places for me, and I was busy getting in touch with loved ones. Yes. Rain and no doubt some snow for Sierras. Good. Thanks for commenting on the forecast this morning. I was thinking it was still a couple days out but looks like it could begin affecting NW WA by tomorrow eve. Looks like, from the outlook LargoFL posted, clear down to Monterey Bay could be affected by heavy rain. Also, as I remember, Columbus Day 1962 winds reached well into Northern California.
Nicole's Eye is huge. Really clearing.
Couldn't be a worse track.

Shows how close Matthew was to Florida...From CIMSS...



Quoting 476. Grothar:

Couldn't be a worse track.


Right over it, well almost, a bit over the eastern side of the island.
Quoting 470. OBXLurker:


Just my 2 cents -- I live on the OBX and I honestly don't know if we were in the cone or not when Matthew hit and I didn't care because I knew there was still a very good chance we were going to have problems. As I posted a few days ago, one of our Hampton Roads mets said Thursday night (just as I was reading the same thing on this blog) that it was going to be closer than expected. Right then I knew it wasn't going to be fun and continued my preparations. As you all say don't let your guard down.
Indeed..I have never lived there, but know the waters and area well ( merchant Marines ) and many of our crew were from Elisabeth City. I said here many times, the folks in that region know weather very well, and for a damn good reason...
Here we go
481. TX2FL
As far as Haiti is concerned, I think that major corporations should offer each employee 2 weeks off paid to go help Haiti relief. Instead of donating money as a corporation to the red cross, use it to pay for those weeks. Employees themselves could donate to funds that will be directly used in Haiti when their employees are down there. The only hard thing would be where will those people stay. I guess they could be airlifted in/out daily to the dominican republic and housed in hotels there. Leave hotel 8am, board plane 9am, be in Haiti 930am, work until 7pm then back.
Matthew from the ISS



Larger image
Just getting power back very early this morning hope everyone made it to the other side okay!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
12z GFS picked up the ball again.
Quoting 481. TX2FL:

As far as Haiti is concerned, I think that major corporations should offer each employee 2 weeks off paid to go help Haiti relief. Instead of donating money as a corporation to the red cross, use it to pay for those weeks. Employees themselves could donate to funds that will be directly used in Haiti when their employees are down there. The only hard thing would be where will those people stay. I guess they could be airlifted in/out daily to the dominican republic and housed in hotels there. Leave hotel 8am, board plane 9am, be in Haiti 930am, work until 7pm then back.
Hello TX2...Awesome idea, but remember that conditions down there are dangerous, shots and prophylactic antibiotics would certainly have to be given even to the healthiest individuals, and anybody from the north would likely suffer terribly from the intense heat and humidity.
Not looking good for Bermuda. Prayers
Quoting 450. hydrus:

Point taken H, but in lies the truth that these systems, regardless of the hype, hero factor, models, EM, and the occasional glass of orange lemonade, at the end of the day, these air complex air/ocean interactions, and you could probably take every Met that ever lived, wire them together with the best computers have to offer, and still miss a forecast. We do in my eyes, have the best weather forecasters in the world right here at WU and the other weather offices, and it is experience, not so much computer models, that make up the most accurate forecasts and predictions. Suffice it to say, I have almost lost my life several times due to botched forecasts ( especially decades ago ), and some of the people I knew did die, understand your frustration...Try to forgive, besides , many of these people are actually underpaid...Ask a Met
at the NWS what he makes...:)



I agree 100% hydrus . In time I'm sure we will forgive. But if we don't call them out on the hype and the over reliance of odd model runs it is bound to repeat it's self and nothing learned. I also agree we have some excellent meteorologists here and other places today. That's why I come here. But mistakes are made and if we ignore them nothing is learned. Nothing is learned when we brag about nailing the forecast when actually they didn't even come close. Hopefully next time they will be a little more careful about going with such odd model runs.
Quoting 452. BahaHurican:

I'm wondering how much of that portrayal is NHC. Since I am not sure whether the affected areas in NC were in the cone, I'm reluctant to assume how much preparation should have occurred.

I'm also thinking about Erika last year and how little effort was made to communicate the SHAPE of the system and the location of the heaviest rain to the involved parties.


Where I am.......no we were not in the cone till the storm was on us. Then yes.....but a little to late. Then it was only for a small dying tropical storm, not a big deal here. Not the odd shaped cat 1 which caused the highest sound side surge ever recorded on this island and it is not uncommon here.




Well Then...