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Hurricane Lorenzo blows ashore; Karen continues weakening; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on September 28, 2007

Hurricane Lorenzo blew ashore at about midnight local time on the Mexican coast as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows that this very small storm is already starting to dissipate, and Lorenzo's effects will be confined to a small area near the coast where the storm made landfall. A pass from NASA's TRMM satellite (Figure 1) showed rainfall amounts of up to one inch per hour from Lorenzo. Lorenzo could dump 5-10 inches of rain over a narrow region extending 50 miles inland from the landfall location. Widespread major flooding is not expected, but some serious local flooding will probably occur.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite as Lorenzo made landfall at 11:26 pm EDT last night. Rainfall amounts as high as one inch per hour (red colors) were estimated in the eyewall and in the spiral band to the west of Lorenzo.

It's not unusual for tropical storms to intensify suddenly where Lorenzo did, in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. According to a paper presented by NASA's Scott Braun at a hurricane conference in 2006, this may be due to the mountains along shore diverting the low-level winds and helping intensify a tropical storm's vortex. In the case of a model simulation done of 2005's Tropical Storm Gert the authors write:
"The simulation shows an easterly wave and surface trough moving westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico with somewhat disorganized convection occurring in its vicinity. Low-level easterly flow ahead of the trough impinges on the eastern side of the Sierra Madre mountains and leads to flow blocking. Because of the particular shape of the topography, this blocked flow causes northwesterly to westerly flow to occur in the southern Gulf that eventually pinches off the trough to form a closed cyclonic circulation. This topographically forced flow also helps to organize some of the convection in a linear band south of the vortex center. Once the closed cyclonic circulation is formed, convection increases and gradually intensifies the cyclone to tropical storm strength by the time of landfall.

Tropical Storm Karen
Tropical Storm Karen has weakened to a minimal tropical storm, thanks to continued high levels of wind shear. Strong westerly winds aloft are creating about 20-25 knots of wind shear over Karen. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a very elongated center of circulation, with winds of minimal tropical storm force to the east of the center. Satellite loops show Karen's exposed low-level center of circulation, now visible as a swirl of low clouds. Most of the heavy thunderstorm activity that was was on the storm's northeast side has died out this morning, and Karen may get downgraded to a tropical depression today. A small area of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed near the center on the east side, but Karen is looking very unhealthy now.

Karen has taken an unexpected jog to the north this morning, which puts the storm closer to a region of higher wind shear. A motion to the west-northwest is expected to resume later today. With Karen's more northerly position, the odds of the storm being torn apart have increased. The GFS model kills Karen by Sunday, and the SHIPS model (which is based on the GFS) is forecasting that 35-40 knots of wind shear will affect the storm tonight through Saturday night. The other models do not kill Karen, but none of them forecasted the northward jog that will bring Karen into higher wind shear sooner. There is about a 50% chance Karen will be gone by Sunday, destroyed by wind shear.

If Karen survives, an ominous possibility arises--a ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic, forcing Karen westward towards the U.S. An anticyclone with low wind shear might build over the storm, creating an environment favorable for intensification of Karen into a hurricane. The path Karen might take late next week is highly uncertain. The high pressure ridge expected to build to the north of Karen will be quite strong, which might force Karen westward into Florida, or even west-south-westward through the Bahamas and into Cuba. There will be several small "short wave" troughs moving through the ridge that may be able to turn Karen more northwesterly towards New England, though. Still another uncertainty is the possibility of a new tropical, subtropical, or extratropical cyclone forming off the coast of North Carolina on Sunday or Monday, something now predicted by all of the computer models. Some of the models take this new storm north-eastward out to sea, which would create a weakness in the ridge that would pull Karen northward. However, most of the models predict that the new storm will move west or west-southwest over Georgia or Florida. A storm-storm interaction between Karen and the new storm might ensue, an event the models are poor at handling.

In short, this is a very complicated situation, and we'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds.

Tropical Depression 14
Tropical Depression 14 formed about 50 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands this morning. The storm is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear. This shear should keep any development slow today. This morning's high-resolution QuikSCAT pass showed that the storm down not have a well-organized surface circulation, but rather a crescent-shaped line of converging winds arcing along a 400-mile long line. A few 50-knot wind vectors appeared in squalls on the storm's east side. This system will likely never affect land, since it is starting out too far north and will gain additional latitude in the coming days. The storm is headed northwest towards a region of high wind shear, and may not survive long.

I'll have an update Saturday morning by 10am.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

alock, I think it mainly has to do with the strength and position of the Bermuda High. The storms will often move around the western periphery of the high, especially as the high weakens due to an approaching trough. With Fran, I think the high was further north and the western periphery just happened to extend through the state of NC...and Fran just followed it through the state. In fact, it was still a Category 1 hurricane when it blew through downtown Raleigh
Me too Lightning Charmer...Tornadoes are just down rightt dirty and spur of the moment...at least you can see a hurricane form and track it days in advance and try to determine where the hell it will go....grr karen...
rareaire...where are you at?
Alockwr21. i think it was hog or midnight that said tracking Karen was like hurding cats,
Oologah Oklahoma
I remember hearing transformers popping every other minute during fran. Thanks NC...always wanted to know why that happened. Is it extremely unlikely to happen? Or just a timing thing?
2013. jpritch
Is there any way to look at all the posts I've made to this blog? I tried searching my name, but that only got a few of them.
Posted By: rareaire at 4:16 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.
when this season is over in the tropics and you guys and gals want to have some fun come up here in april and may and we can chase them till you get tired.


I've been too close to few over the years. I'll be happy to view someone else's video or photos. Thank you very much. But for you'll that love chasing. Go for it. I admire your work.
storm W will you have a blog update tommorow
Posted By: HouseofGryffindor at 10:49 PM EDT on September 28, 2007.
Question...every once in a while someone's post doesn't show up and I have to click "show" to see what they said. I haven't + or - them either... What causes that?


Sorry if someone already answered this, but last night I had the same trouble. I discovered clicking on show all at the top of the comments fixed the problem for me.
As much as I'd hate to see Karen burden and harm...I would like to see this storm "survive" and beat the myth of hurricanes not being a factor to the east coast in October.
2019. will40
Posted By: jpritch at 12:20 AM EDT on September 29, 2007.

Is there any way to look at all the posts I've made to this blog? I tried searching my name, but that only got a few of them.

Check archives on the right of this page near the top
I think it's mainly a timing thing, where the High's are, where the trough's and ULL's are at the time a storm approaches the US, etc. It still amazes me how hurricanes, even the very large and strong one's get pushed around by the upper level winds as easily as they do
at the museum in the Capital we have a brake drum with a broom straw all the way thru it. A telehone pole with a broom handle in it at a 15 deg angle so similar to the tropics they are unpredictable and in many cases unforgiving.
Caribblob is not even an invest & the area of convection has moved North into increasing shear.
Hazel was an October storm, and a strong one at that. It would be interesting to see if that was a La Nina year. I think the year was 1955 or 56.
I just wish we could see ahead and know where Karen was going and what she'll be when she gets there!!
wasnt wilma an october storm!
If karen was to hit the eastern coast...when are we looking at? next weekend?
2027. will40
1954 NC but dont know it it was LaNina but it was coldddddddddddddd lol and yes in October
MITCH AND WILMA WERE OCTOBER STORM FORMED IN WEST CARIBBEAN
Yep, I think next weekend would be the earliest. I think the next 24 to 36 hours will be critical. That should tell us if we have another Ingrid or a potential problem.
Hazel was in 1954, which was indeed a La Nina year; the end of 2005 was also during a La Nina (although not considered official by the CPC because it didn't last for at least 5 consecutive 3 month periods; the JMA does however consider it to be official, such is the disperancy between different agencies).
will, that must have been one heck of a storm!
2032. jpritch
rare, it looks to me like she'll end up in the eastern Caribbean tomorrow afternoon. It's anyone's guess what shape she'll be in at that point though.
2033. will40
Yes she was a booger bear and she went quite a ways inland also the center passed right over Raleigh as Cat3
once in the carribian she will be out of the sheer I thin Jp said earlier.
wow Cat.3...and i thought fran as a cat. 1 was bad....Raleigh was a mess after fran.
2040. msphar
I am guessing the COC is near 16.4N 52.5W and pushing SSWard due to the shape of the blob to its NNE. From the latest tropical surface analysis chart it looks like the High North of Karen is disipating in favor a stantionary high further East. When that dissipation progresses further the isobars channeling Karen SSW should relax allowing her to move more West and WNW. I hope it clears the corner of the island chain if this forecast works out.
How much shear is Karen under atm?
i see folks are chatting about nc weather ,, we dont have much ,but when it happens ,, it is intense..hugo went to charlotte in 89, amazing , that far inland , the damage it caused.
2044. will40
Yes and Floyd was bad not somuch the wind but the inland flooding
Pinehurst...Raleigh here, talked about how far Fran came in as well.
Right, Floyd was devastating for folks down east.
how much shear is karen under?
2049. msphar
I think the shear is strong. Last numbers kicked about were 50 and 60 Kts
2050. msphar
I am still perplexed by the split in convection. What is keeping the other mass fired up, assuming COC is where I think it is.
thats imposible i can't be that high up to 40 is usally the peak of shear in the central atlantic during hurricane season. Only the north north atlantic gets that type of windshear at this time.
2053. msphar
There were charts posted earlier showing that level. JLPR put them up a few hours back.
2054. will40
Posted By: Vortex95 at 12:55 AM EDT on September 29, 2007. (hide)

thats imposible i can't be that high up to 40 is usally the peak of shear in the central atlantic during hurricane season. Only the north north atlantic gets that type of windshear at this time.


Well she already been through one spot that shear was estimated to be 70mpr
Posted By: Vortex95 at 11:55 PM CDT on September 28, 2007.

thats imposible i can't be that high up to 40 is usally the peak of shear in the central atlantic during hurricane season.


Check out this from 2005.
2056. will40
STL how would a person get to the Admin blogs for last year?
2057. msphar
You can see the convection has blown off of the NW blob exposing the area where I think the COC is currently. So the shear remains strong. Dawn will tell the story though.
Also, we are long past the minimum in shear across the tropical Atlantic, which is in its ending days for tropical cyclone formation and/or survival; shear normally is actually less favorable right now than it is in late June; the reason why the Cape Verde season doesn't start that early is dry air and low instability:



Time to watch the Caribbean...



Posted By: will40 at 1:00 AM EDT on September 29, 2007.

STL how would a person get to the Admin blogs for last year?


Look on the right side of the blog, there are links to the archives (also in everybody else's blogs).
What will be the most accurate computer model for this storm?
PAGASA

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
=========================
Tropical Storm "HANNA" has weakened into a tropical depression as it made landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Aurora this morning.

--
okay I know this isn't Atlantic/East Pacific related but it's weather related news.
2066. jpritch
msphar, re the detatched convection... It was intense enough that there was probably some mid-upper level rotation with it. The low level circulation departed so rapidly, shearing off at a fairly low level, that the mid-upper level circulation was left there cooking for a while. The circulation could have worked its way down toward the surface somewhat, but I doubt with that kind of shear that there is any chance it could actually develop a lower level circulation.
National Hurricane Center - Miami Florida
Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook
0500z 29September 2007

============
The area of low pressure located about 390 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to improve in organization. If current trends continues a tropical depression could form on Saturday as the system moves towards the west at 10-15 mph.
2069. msphar
MichaelSTL when will you "know" that the CV season is over? What signs do you look for ?
2072. msphar
OK so that larger blob should die off. But it seems like the energizer bunny.
Well, here is WunderYakuza's blog, the last entry says that it is closed "while we rearrange our administration system", suggesting that it will come back someday.


As for the end of the Cape Verde season, I don't know if you can actually tell when it is over, at least not until storms stop developing in that area.
2074. jpritch
ms, we won't know what's happened to it until after the satellite blackout. The blob (and other) images are a couple of hours old now.
Okay, what gives? When I last checked in, Karen was a devastated storm with a messy low level circulation, 25 knot winds, 1015mb pressure, and was just about to move into 50-60 knots shear. Now I check in, and QuikSCAT (which is getting old now) shows a nice, clean circulation, her winds are up to 34 knots, and her pressure is down to 1008mb. She hasn't been this strong in a day and a half, and the weakening flag is still "OFF". Still far from her peak strength of 999mb/53 knots, but geez...

What on Earth happened? Was it monkeys? Some terrifying space monkeys came and spun her back up, maybe? Because I don't have a better explanation. :P
2076. msphar
oh shoot I forgot about blackout tonight.
Posted By: KarenRei at 5:26 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.
What on Earth happened? Was it monkeys? Some terrifying space monkeys came and spun her back up, maybe? Because I don't have a better explanation. :P

If you look real close the yesterday's visible satellite, you can actually see the space monkeys.....LOOK, There they are!


LOL
2078. will40
TY STL that got me to last years admin
aurora? forgive me for my unfamiliar knowledge with that state . country, area? was that a joke?
2080. msphar
the 1015 was an error. The intense shear moved back west.
NOAA: DETERMINING THE ACTUAL CENTER OF KAREN HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
CHALLENGE THIS EVENING.

Comment: Unless you are there! If one was in the area of Karen, it would be easier because of better visual observation of the clouds. On satellite, Karen moved to the west and at 10:15 central was still moving west. This should be interesting tomorrow!
wow
woke me up
2084. msphar
when does blackout end ??
its the crop signs,, when . they all fall down ,it was a hurricane ,,
How do you get 1015 as an error? It's listed here, with a smooth buildup to it and back down from it. 4:00 PM yesterday.

Hey Alock,

I was just skimming through the most recent comments in this blog. In doing so, the conversation regarding NC storms most certainly captured my attention. Consequently, I first wanted to say "hello" to you and everyone else on here tonight. Secondly, I also desired to respond to a question you posed earlier regarding the tracks of "our" storms such as hurricane Fran. Specifically, I wanted to explain why it (Fran) came so far inland, rather than just hugging the coastline that constitutes the path of the vast majority of the hurricanes that have made a direct impact on the NC coastline. In most cases, "our" hurricanes follow the typical recurvature around the western periphery of the Bermuda High (which usually doesn't extend far enough west into NC or either retrogrades as a result of an approaching trough).

The difference with Fran was that she gradually rounded the westernmost periphery of the Subtropical High (Bermuda High) and found an inviting magnet per se as an upper level low had become stationary over Tennessee (tropical cyclones like to migrate towards such areas of lowest pressure). This particular atmospheric setup created a definitive corridor (path of least resistance for low pressure systems) between the ULL to the west and the High to its east. I remember this scenario distinctly (as if were yesterday) for I had been tracking this historic storm from the very moments it first moved off the African coast as a well defined and large tropical wave in late August of 1996. This also happened to be the very same year that I began interning at the NWS (November). In short, the aforementioned atmospheric setup allowed Fran to continue on a general NNW to NW course through the state as opposed to the more typical coast huggers (i.e. those systems that keep hurricane conditions well east of I-95).

I also want to convey a most heartfelt "hello" to those of you I have not had the pleasure of chatting with for quite some time. My relative absence from the blogs has been and continues to be the result of far more important circumstances in my own life that demand my full attention. Consequently, I have not yet had a chance nor taken the time to monitor the current storm system most are discussing here (Karen). That being said, I may have an opportunity to share my own personal (best educated guess) thorough analysis of this particular storm (consisting of my own expectations relative to its future track and intensity), on Sunday evening. If so, I will most certainly post my "best educated Guess" in my blog at that time. In the meantime, I want to wish each and everyone of you a truly blessed night, and a great rest of the weekend.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
2088. msphar
I read it here but didn't research it. The surface analysis chart shows the 1012 iso line surrounding Karen.
hi all blackout will be over in 40min lets see if it jumps karen further west the jumps are fun to see also all the modeles are showing a strom off the se coast by georgia that moves sw over fla in 144 hours
Wow, what's up Tony! Good to see you around :~) Been quite a while.

Anywho, just on a quick fly by >>>>>

There is quite a spread on the 00z models.....

Seems GFDL make her a fish while the Nogaps, HWRF, Ukmet, and CMC want to bring her closer to the E coast. Seems the telling difference will be with what happens with the area/tail of the trough in the Bahamas. If it moves NE out to sea then it looks like Karen follows, if it moves NW back towards the coast then it seems Karen will head more W. Still a lot of wait and see.

Talk to everyone in the morning!
maybe karen will give us some rain the upstate of SC some rain, am i wishcasting or is that just a hope.
2092. TayTay
Karen's a real fighter. I guess that's the advantage of being such a large system. Strong LLC.
Like a hair in a biscuit, Karen's hangin' in there!
Well, after the blackout, on the water vapor loop, it looks like both Karen and the Carribean blob have been killed. I guess we'll have to see what Saturday brings from them, if anything, any longer, at all...

Jo

P.S. - Always wanted to be the last poster on one of these blogs... :P
just in from 1008mb now

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1005.3mb/ 39.0kt

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Wow. 1005mb, 39 knots. It's been almost 2 days since we had those numbers. Weakening flag off. My namesake is keeping up the strengthening...

Doesn't look good.
yes she is KarenRei she was at 1015 yesterday drop 10 mb in 19 hours thats impressive still a ts
When did those figures come out, stormybil, as I can't even find it anymore... looked like an open wave, or something, to me.
You can keep track of them here.

Last entry, more of the same:

2007SEP29 071500
Current intensity: 2.8
Pressure: 1004.3 mb
Windspeed: 41.0 knots (47 mph)
Current coords: 16.54N 52.50W

Plus, a bit of calculation from the data:

Movement in the last 30 minutes: 2.8mi N, 5.3miW
Direction: WNW to NW
Velocity: 12mph
2100. KRL
Karen's a joke. Look at the latest sat images.

Can't even believe people are still giving her respect. LOL
KRL:

The numbers of intensification are coming from the Dvorak technique, which is based on the satellite images. Just because you don't know how to accurately judge a satellite image doesn't change the fact that the storm has been strengthening rather rapidly.

Now, the caveat:

Just because she's strengthening now doesn't mean she won't weaken later this evening or tomorrow. However, she is strengthening now, despite all this shear, which is pretty darn impressive. Heck, if she kept up this rate, she'd be back to her original strength in 10-11 hours. Doubt that will happen, but it puts into perspective how significant this strengthening is.
Waiting on that NHC Discussion in a few minutes.
I furthermore don't like the fact that even as far north as NOGAPS wants to pull the storm (the furthest of any of the models), it still feels the need to curve the storm straight west. I had some hope for Karen slipping past the high earlier, but not very much any more.

I don't think things look good, that's all. Hopefully, tomorrow we should have a clearer picture of both potential strength and direction.
Dropped another mb in the past 30 minutes. :P 1003.3 mb, 43 knots (49.5 mph).
How long until the discussion? Trying to decide whether I should go to bed or stay up for it.
About another 20 minutes or so maybe sooner.
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2007

...THIRTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL TAKE THE DEPRESSION
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

Only for the fish....
WTNT42 KNHC 290845
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

ONCE AGAIN...LOCATING THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF KAREN
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. BOTH CONVENTIONAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
ELONGATED WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED MOSTLY ON
AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KAREN REMAINS IN AN
EXTREMELY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-45 KTS OF
WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 35 KTS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT KAREN WILL SURVIVE SUCH AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...PROVIDING A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN. IN
FACT...THE GFDL TAKES KAREN TO 80 KT IN FOUR DAYS AND THE HWRF
MODEL INTENSIFIES KAREN TO AROUND 100 KT BY DAY 5. SINCE SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN KAREN SURVIVING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...I
WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FORECAST KAREN AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH
FIVE DAYS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO ALIGNED WITH THE LGE
MODEL.

AN 18-24 HOUR MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
300/10. KAREN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE. IT APPEARS FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BYPASS KAREN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN
STEERING KAREN ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.6N 52.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.4N 54.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 18.5N 55.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 57.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 21.0N 58.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 60.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 24.5N 63.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 25.5N 65.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
I'm going to have to get a good shot of those two to send to my mother (Melissa is my older sister). She'll get a kick out of it ;)

G'nite!

2111. mit5000
i think karen is fighting!
100kt Hurricane from the HWRF...
Warm water and relaxed shear can do that...
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...PROVIDING A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN. IN
FACT...THE GFDL TAKES KAREN TO 80 KT IN FOUR DAYS AND THE HWRF
MODEL INTENSIFIES KAREN TO AROUND 100 KT BY
23 no sleep tonight?
Yep. Potential Cat3 right off our shoreline, with a high trying to hold it west.

It's certainly not writ in stone, but it's the reason why I hate to see Karen's pressure falling now. It seems to me that it's pushing that scenario closer to fruition.
Here is a pic of the HWRF at around 100kts...

Iam at work miamiweather.
do you mind giving your opinion on what you think of Karen?
2120. mit5000
we have an e pac cuyclone!
If Karen survives the shear today I think this storm is going to be a problem for someone on the east coast. I do not like how the models have been consistent on turning the storm west later in the forecast period. Perhaps if the storm does re-intensify it may be slow do to its broad circulation here's the Quikscat. If Karen survives the shear today I think this storm is going to be a problem for someone on the east coast. I do not like how the models have been consistent on turning the storm west later in the forecast period. Perhaps if the storm does re-intensify it may be slow do to its broad circulation here's the Quikscat. If Karen survives the shear today I think this storm is going to be a problem for someone on the east coast. I do not like how the models have been consistent on turning the storm west later in the forecast period. Perhaps if the storm does re-intensify it may be slow do to its broad circulation here's the Quikscat.
2122. mit5000
were level with wpac this season!............


i just luv it when wunderground is ded!
Yeah, the West Pacific has been very uneventful this year. La Nia is really hampering activity both there and in the East Pacific.

I'm not liking what Karen might do... But even so, I knew this would probably happen. As was said, it's not written in stone, but can certainly happen. Since Karen is expected to remain weak, recurvature is unlikely as of now.
2124. KRL
KRL:
Just because you don't know how to accurately judge a satellite image ......


eyes laugh
2127. mit5000
Posted By: KoritheMan at 9:53 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

And there you go again, running off like a coward. So typical.


lol!
Hello there :), when will the wind shear forecast be updated? Currently its unavailable :(
No idea, Equator. I don't know about when CIMSS updates the shear map.
2132. mit5000
Tropical Depression 14E




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2007 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 14:58:06 N Lon : 110:46:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


t.s mellisa:
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2007 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 14:06:08 N Lon : 27:24:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.9 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -55.8C Cloud Region Temp : -51.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

------------
Tropical Storm 12L




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2007 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 16:34:32 N Lon : 52:51:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.3mb/ 43.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : 1.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.42^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************



Sorry mit, its a bit confusing. But, I believe those are Dvorak readings for TD in east pacific, ts.Melissa and Karen? Is melissa 12L ?
Thank you for your response Kori :)
2135. IKE
Tallahassee,FL. extended discussion...

"(tuesday through saturday) we based our extended forecast on a
blend of the 00 UTC GFS and 12 UTC European model (ecmwf) runs. Both models
forecast a gradual return of deep layer moisture to our area by
middle week as a deep layer low pressure system (possibly
subtropical) develops near South Florida and moves west northwestward.
The GFS had a wetter solution while the European model (ecmwf) was drier. Since
then the 00 UTC European model (ecmwf) has come in and it is much more aggressive
with its development of this low in the southeast Gulf on Tuesday.
In fact...the European model (ecmwf) solution now looks more tropical than
anything...and this scenario looks a lot like what happened a week
or so ago with dew point 10. If the European model (ecmwf) is correct our wind and seas
forecast is too low and our pop forecast may need to come up.
However...this is still a long way out and we would prefer to hold
any changes to our extended forecast for another 24 hours to see
if there is more run-to-run consistency. Thus we will stick with
our current plan of calling for a slow warming trend through the
week...with probability of precipitation climbing to slightly above climatology later in
the work week."
2136. mit5000
Posted By: JustSouthofEquator at 10:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Sorry mit, its a bit confusing. But, I believe those are Dvorak readings for TD in east pacific, ts.Melissa and Karen? Is melissa 12L ?


mellisas 14l and karens 12l!
2137. mit5000
latest for karen:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2007 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 16:37:27 N Lon : 52:56:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.3mb/ 43.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.7 2.4 2.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : 3.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.52^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


2139. Rick54
It seems like everyone is having trouble calling the weather forecast for the next few days. There seems to be as much confusion among the pros as there is here at WU
2140. Rick54
It seems like everyone is having trouble calling the weather forecast for the next few days. There seems to be as much confusion among the pros as there is here at WU
Good Morning, Kori., and 23,
K is certainly a fighter. Have not seen one as stubborn in the face of such strong shear, for a long time. Has surprised me, I have to admit........
I for one thought Karen could hold on until she got away from the sheer, Her LLC has become enlongated and is very hard to find, Don't know if she can keep it up. I am very supprise she is still listed as a TS.
Does anyone know what the current sheer is and what time do they post the update sheer maps?
2143. IKE
Can you locate the COC? I can't find it anymore????

Link
2144. mit5000
Posted By: IKE at 10:32 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Can you locate the COC? I can't find it anymore????


its located at around 15n 50w
2145. IKE
Posted By: mit5000 at 5:37 AM CDT on September 29, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 10:32 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Can you locate the COC? I can't find it anymore????

its located at around 15n 50w


I don't see a COC there.

The NHC had it at 16.6N, 52.9W on their latest update..but, it's elongated and becoming harder to find. I'm surprised they haven't downgraded her.
Early morning visibles show a very exposed LLC which all in all could indicate that we might have a TD at 11am.

moving westward....
2147. mit5000
Posted By: hurricane23 at 10:40 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Early morning visibles show a very exposed LLC which all in all could indicate that we might have a TD at 11am.

moving westward....


thts karen though!
non weather question...in the last few days there has been a new person on here...he is posting comments like there is'nt going to be a tomorrow...then to call more attention to himself...he posts things under another ID then proceeds to argue with himself...all the while getting the room involved...it's all good with me...I've seen enough soap operas to smell a rat...my question is...where the henfart is the ignore button that ya'll keep talking about...now...back to weather...thanks..and I apolagize for the interruption...
Posted By: mit5000 at 10:37 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Posted By: IKE at 10:32 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Can you locate the COC? I can't find it anymore????

its located at around 15n 50w

Heck, If thats right I am way off, I was thinking it was around 17n 53w buy looking at the loop.. I could be wrong....
Agreed, I'll even go one step further and say that not only will Karen be a TD by 11am, the last advisory might even be written on her @11am or 5pm.
2151. Rick54
It seems like everyone is having trouble calling the weather forecast for the next few days. There seems to be as much confusion among the pros as there is here at WU
2152. IKE
Posted By: underthunder at 5:43 AM CDT on September 29, 2007.
non weather question...in the last few days there has been a new person on here...he is posting comments like there is'nt going to be a tomorrow...then to call more attention to himself...he posts things under another ID then proceeds to argue with himself...all the while getting the room involved...it's all good with me...I've seen enough soap operas to smell a rat...my question is...where the henfart is the ignore button that ya'll keep talking about...now...back to weather...thanks..and I apolagize for the interruption...



Go to the top of this page...look on the left side to "my blog"...click it, look to the right of the new page, on the top of the page to..."modify ignore list"...click it...add the SN and carry on.
2153. Rick54
It seems like everyone is having trouble calling the weather forecast for the next few days. There seems to be as much confusion among the pros as there is here at WU
2154. IKE
Posted By: sullivanweather at 5:44 AM CDT on September 29, 2007.
Agreed, I'll even go one step further and say that not only will Karen be a TD by 11am, the last advisory might even be written on her @11am or 5pm.


You might be right.

I doubt she's a TS any longer. The NHC even said "...and the
initial intensity is kept generously at 35 kts. "
2155. IKE
Rick54...why do you keep posting that? That's 4 times.
2156. Rick54
Sorry for the multiple posts .... don't quite know what happened but I think it is fixed now.
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:44 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Agreed, I'll even go one step further and say that not only will Karen be a TD by 11am, the last advisory might even be written on her @11am or 5pm.

I agree, as stated earlier I am very suprised that the NHC has hung on to her as a TS, I wounder that for the last 2 days she has shed her convection only to refire it durning the day keeping her alive. They may be waiting to see if this trend continues today. If she does not fire of this morning before the next advisory, K will be downgraded...... Apearrs she likes to sleep in and is not a early riser
underthunder, now there is a mystery, to start the morning with.
Who could it be ???
There's 2 mini swirls that are visible on satellite imagery right now wich seem to be rotating around a larger circulation elongated SE-NW.
Good morning all...I see TD14 got on the comeback and become Melissa, and I see that Karen is almost a TD
One swirl is around 17N 54.5W

The other is around 15.9N 53.8W
2162. IKE
OK...I see it now...near 16.1N, 53.8W....

BREAKING NEWS!!!! SHE'S NAKED!!! EXPOSED!
Good morning everybody.

Looks like most of the models (except GFS) forecast a pretty quick reintensification of Karen once the shear begins to relax...although looking at satellite imagery I'm beginning to seriously doubt that Karen will last until then unless convection really begins to refire near the center(s).
Its a good bet this will be a TD at 11am....

Look at how exposed the LLC is!Thats what 50-60kt windshear will do for you.

gg
not only that but the convective blow ups off towards the east are really preventing any inflow into the circulation center, cutting the moisture flow off.

Most of the convergence seems to be displaced 150mi SE of the center
2166. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:55 AM CDT on September 29, 2007.
Its a good bet this will be a TD at 11am....

Look at how exposed the LLC is!Thats what 50-60kt windshear will do for you.


I agree...she got ripped apart........
Yea, you can see the swirls better now in the last frame of the loop
does someone have the latest sheer map / forcast
2169. IKE
CIMSS shear map...

Link
tx Ike. The computer I am on this morning does not have all my bookmarks
After looking at the shear map IKE posted, I can see why TD14 was able to organize more, as shear dropped to like 5-10kts, while it was 10-20kts yesterday and combined with dmin, the depression fell apart
2172. IKE
She's exposed/naked...in 30+ knots of shear.
Thats not the center....

look around 15.7N and about 53.7W.
So I guess we have had 3 CV storms this year, Dean, Karen, and now Melissa....seems the CV season has been more active this year at a time when it should be winding down/over
I have a synopsis on Melissa in my blog if anyone cares to check it out....


At the time I'm forecasting a stronger storm then the NHC has up currently.

Sully's blog
Morning extreme; do you think Karen will dissipate?
Posted By: TerraNova at 11:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Morning extreme; do you think Karen will dissipate?


Well I believe it is definatly possible, and im not sure how long she can last any longer with all the shear...the GFDL and HWRF seem to want her to stay alive, but I have to give it a 70/30 in favor of her dissapating
2179. IKE
And that would be realy bad. Or would it .........

I doubt it would be bad...I know a few like that...their still sleeping in...it's OK to say she looks pitiful this morning.

If this were a weekday, then yeah, you're right...we would be hammered for making comments about how exposed Karen looks and downplaying her chances.
Well it seems the NHC will use the dvorak numbers for Melissa by just seeing if they rise, as it they rise, they would likely increase the intensity, as the dvorak numbers arent on the same page as the NHC, so the numbers can only be used as guidence to set a estimate of melissa's intensity
Lorenzo's track...a classic BoC storm

image
ULL moving south might kill what is ever is left of poor karen this morning.
Well...this mornings' QuikSCAT missed Karen.

Looks like we'll only have visible imagery to go on until the possible decending pass tnight
2184. Rick54
While K is not looking good right now the fact that it is still quite a large storm may keep it from dropping below a TD. All it has to do is maintain its circulation and it will come right back. That is what the models are saying. I still think the track is what should be the most concern and, at least according to this morning's discussion, it is still likely to go West. IMHO nothing has really changed.
Karen at max intensity....can see why the NHC believes she was a hurricane

image
QuikSCAT missed melissa as well...

And QuikSCAT is supossed to be meteorological sliced bread...lol
Extreme,

I'm sure the NHC will update Karen to a hurricane in the post-season re-analysis
yep, karen should be a cane in post-season analysis or whenever that TCR is put out
Hey, anyone have any thoughts on the possible development some models are hinting at off the SE coast in a few days at the tail end of the trough currently moving offshore?
2190. IKE
The 1045Z visible on Karen...

Reduced to a swirl of clouds.
Rick, good point. But has the circulation been maintained ?
Looks to be split in 2 parts, and I would give it a fair chance of it failing to re-organise today.
I suppose, with such a large system, if the shear drops right off, before tomorow morning, there would be a chance.
NAM has a ~1002mb low west of Tampa at +84hrs.
Well its Sept. 29, and that means that in 3 days the NHC will issue their monthly analysis and show where this month stood above the others in the past seasons
crazy models, now the GFDL has K at 105kts in 114 hours. I believe yesterday they dropped her altogether
Karen has a rather large circulation which in the long run might help here intensify once again after she moves away from the shear.
Well, if Karen were to survive the shear, then we wouldnt have to worry about waiting for post-season analysis to make her a cane, as she would probably end up becoming one with a favorable enviroment after 72hrs
You may find yourselves on " ignore ". And that would be really bad. Or would it .........

The ignore button is like tracer rounds.

They work both ways!

Is it still early enough to say Karen's looking bad?? I'm not counting her out yet, though.
Posted By: sullivanweather at 11:18 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Hey, anyone have any thoughts on the possible development some models are hinting at off the SE coast in a few days at the tail end of the trough currently moving offshore?


Its something to definatly watch for...
2199. CJ5
morning. Yea, Ike she is a swirl or clouds. I am having a hard time locating what should be the coc. It appears to be 16/54...agree?
2200. UYA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) WE BASED OUR EXTENDED FORECAST ON A
BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF RUNS. BOTH MODELS
FORECAST A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO OUR AREA BY
MID WEEK AS A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (POSSIBLY
SUBTROPICAL) DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTH FL AND MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD.
THE GFS HAD A WETTER SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRIER. SINCE
THEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS COME IN AND IT IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF ON TUESDAY.
IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION NOW LOOKS MORE TROPICAL THAN
ANYTHING...AND THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A LOT LIKE WHAT HAPPENED A WEEK
OR SO AGO WITH TD 10.
Posted By: sullivanweather at 11:18 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Hey, anyone have any thoughts on the possible development some models are hinting at off the SE coast in a few days at the tail end of the trough currently moving offshore?

Yes it is definately a possibility. The tail end of the trof. Low pressures, warm water. The local mets here in CFL have been hinting someting could form up.
Karen: Looking more impressive than I was expecting for overnight. A slight elongated COC at about 16N 54W. Still in strong shear, 30-40 kts, and the COC has once again been exposed. According to CIMSS she has slightly intensified overnight, a litle hard to believe, but not as hard as the 1015 mb assessment yesterday at 1615 UTC. Karen appears to be a real fighter and we need to keep a watch on her. If she can keep this circulation going without any attached convection then she could become a real problem to the SE US coast. I will check back later today or tonight.
I have a hunch this season's overall total for named storms will be higher than Dr. Gray's forecast...he said it was predicatable so far, but I guess september screwed his forecast up lol
does anyone have the cone loop for karen?
2206. icmoore
GM all, Been up all night with a bad back and a very sick dog. Always hear bad things come in 3s so I thought I'd better check out Florida's chances of avoiding tropical weather with Karen,etc. Nice to know you guys , gals are here. Thanks, Cat
Posted By: extreme236 at 11:40 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

I have a hunch this season's overall total for named storms will be higher than Dr. Gray's forecast...he said it was predicatable so far, but I guess september screwed his forecast up lol
Agree
TS Melissa (14L)

image
No mention of Melissa?
My forecast was 16-9-5

Thus far we're at 13-4-2

Now Karen could have been a hurricane and still could become one if it survives the shear.

Melissa could also become a hurricane if it advoids the shear to her north for the next 3 days (which I believe it should)

Although my forecast could still be attained, it is looking like a long shot now...

# of storms looks close....hurricanes and majors might come up short, however.
well SEP this pull off one more name
according to the ADT dvorak image, it looks like melissa's center is under some of the colder cloud tops, so that definatly shows she is much better organized
2213. CJ5
The shear models do not show that much shear ahead of Karen, if it stays below 20N. I believe she can make it at least to the current location of Karen before it will really be an issue and if the H builds up like expected I do not see it becoming a fish storm, at least not for the next 4-5 days.
2214. GoofOff
With any luck, the storms currently originating off the coast of Africa will end up as fish storms unless they could affect Bermuda. They are still a long way out and there are many things that could change that. I think for the balance of the season, I would be more concerned about something of the home grown variety firing up in the gulf. Nothing there now, but that is the usual pattern. Let's hope the worst is over.
Well Melissa really isnt moving much, so thats keeping her in a favorable enviroment, and her track has changed significantly, instead of a track taking her NW and eventually north, it shifted to a WNW track
i think the gulf is now shut down for any thing to get in there right now looks like hurricane season is done for the gulf i this saw the wind shear map and there any where from 40 to 80kt of wind shear
2217. IKE
I predicted 18...Melissa puts it up to 13.

Some of the models are hinting at some type development off of the east coast of Florida...retrograding across the peninsula.

Could it be Noel????? Christmas in September/October?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2007.

i think the gulf is now shut down for any thing to get in there right now looks like hurricane season is done for the gulf i this saw the wind shear map and there any where from 40 to 80kt of wind shear


Taz, the gulf isnt done...there is only high shear because of a Trof of low pressure in the upper levels, causing massive shear...but they cant stay there forever
Well IKE, i dont know about you, but I definatly foresee a very active october
Shear is already starting to decrease in the bay of campeche
2221. IKE
That cold front/trough...has brought in lower temps and dew points here in the Florida panhandle this morning. It's refreshing outside.
Shear is also favorable in the west caribbean, while unfavorable in the eastern caribbean
And shear tendency map shows shear has decreased over karen, although remains highly unfavorable
2224. IKE
Looking at the 1115Z visible on Karen...she looks awful. Expect a downgrade at the next update.
but if Im correct, the highly unfavorable shear is expected to end in 24hrs time, then be only moderate shear for 48hrs after that
Good Morning
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 23.1N 82.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.10.2007 23.1N 82.3W WEAK

00UTC 02.10.2007 24.6N 82.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2007 24.9N 85.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2007 23.5N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.10.2007 22.7N 89.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 04.10.2007 22.7N 90.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.10.2007 23.0N 92.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.10.2007 26.0N 94.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
we are up to 13 name storm dont for get that TD 10 was a bust and kind of mass thing up a little
Extreme,

there might not anything left of Karen in 24 hours...lol
Two active women in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Melissa

the UKMET forecasts a TS to form in the gulf near cuba
2232. IKE
Sorry to speak so badly of you Karen...I've said you're naked/exposed...now I mentioned how bad you look....obviously she and I won't be heading to KFC for a Saturday evening date.

Forgive me K!
Hey 456, that navy image is old, for some reason they havent updated the image since 945UTC
People keep talking about Karens circulation. I am having a hard time finding circulation there now. Would someone show the circulation please.
The UKM gulf storm

image
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

KAREN IS HOLDING STEADY UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC
. AT 29/0900 UTC KAREN IS NEAR 16.6N 52.9W OR
ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN HAS LITTLE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A LOT E OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 46W-53W...AND FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

2237. IKE
pottery2...

Look near 16N, 54W....

Link
2238. TayTay
Karen has no convection left at all.
2239. IKE
KAREN IS HOLDING STEADY UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


There's not much left to hold.

Sorry again Karen.
Posted By: TayTay at 12:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Karen has no convection left at all.


She does...just not anywhere close to the center now lol
2241. IKE
I agree with the NHC...the circulation w/K is elongated.

Gabby was too at one point and came back. Karen's on life-support...the plug hasn't been pulled yet.
2242. TayTay
If it's not attached to the centre then the storm should be done. Karen is a naked swirly.
Yes we all know what happened with gabby once she appeared to "poof" lol....she didnt become anything significant, but she came back....we will have to see if karen survives for 24 hours
Morning all :~)

I find it interesting that the NHC has taken the tropical forecast points off of the SSD imagery site. I guess they figure that if they could not get the track right they wanted it to be harder for us to figure out they could not get it right...lol
Posted By: TayTay at 12:09 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

If it's not attached to the centre then the storm should be done. Karen is a naked swirly.


Well the convection wasnt attached to the center for part of yesterday either lol....this is typically of sheared cyclones and we will have to see if she lasts 24 hours, then shear dies out a bit
2247. IKE
Elongated..."Having notably more length than width; being long and slender"...

Least I didn't call her obese.
Inappropriate CJ, but funny :~)
2250. IKE
Posted By: StormJunkie at 7:11 AM CDT on September 29, 2007.
Morning all :~)

I find it interesting that the NHC has taken the tropical forecast points off of the SSD imagery site. I guess they figure that if they could not get the track right they wanted it to be harder for us to figure out they could not get it right...lol


I noticed that too.
Posted By: extreme236 at 8:03 AM AST on September 29, 2007.
Hey 456, that navy image is old, for some reason they havent updated the image since 945UTC


didnt realize...
Well considering every morning she wakes up with her skirt above her head, I am not sure she is someone you really want a relationship with. One night stand perhaps but that would be it.

lol
Posted By: Weather456 at 12:14 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 8:03 AM AST on September 29, 2007.
Hey 456, that navy image is old, for some reason they havent updated the image since 945UTC


didnt realize...


I didnt realize it at first either, but when I continued to see the same image saying 14L NONAME for the next few hours, I figured it wasnt working right
Data Buoy #41040 (14.48 N 53.03 W)
Descending Pass shows that KAREN has open up and now it is a open wave

lol
Updated Image

Posted By: Tazmanian at 12:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Descending Pass shows that KAREN has open up and now it is a open wave


Taz, the QS pass missed her this morning...that is an old pass, and you can actually see a circulation on the image you posted
Does this part of the atlantic always has this high shear? its seems lately this area has ripped storms apart.
Morning everybody,

LOL @ SJ; I noticed the forecast points were missing just now. I had a hard time finding a COC, even though I looked using all the different views. I didn't feel so bad after I read the discussion; even NHC can't find the centre . . .

This was the other statement in the discussion that caught my eye.
IT APPEARS FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BYPASS KAREN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

If Karen does make it through the next 24 hours, we appear likely to have that October landfall that is so unusual. I don't foresee Karen making and then fizzling out later, do you?
QS shows yet another LLC has emerged off africa in association with another wave....if convection reflares with it I wouldnt be surprised if something happened with it
geek5,

I've been calling Hebert's box #1 the box of doom this season.

The shear isn't always so high here.
Posted By: weathergeek5 at 12:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Does this part of the atlantic always has this high shear? its seems lately this area has ripped storms apart.


Yea, its not abnormal for this time of year, but its been favorable off and on
236,

I think the shear in that area has been relatively high all season, though, and that's not the usual scenario.
Posted By: BahaHurican at 12:23 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

236,

I think the shear in that area has been relatively high all season, though, and that's not the usual scenario.


Well recently the shear has been persistantly high there, so that is the abnormal part
Baha, if she makes it through this 24hrs, I tend to agree she will not die, but it also looks as if there is another trough and associated front working across the US now so I am not willing to take any bets on her making the US prior to that front. And as I said yesterday, I am in watch and see mode until tomorrow. As usual with most broads, this one is difficult and confusing :~)

Sorry lady's, just a little Sat morning humor :~)

It seems to be going around something fierce this morning...
2267. aquak9
G'morning ya'll. Re-reading about 3 hours of posts here, my best idea is that Karen is still a swirly question mark?

Anyone?
But this is the time of year where we look to the east coast/caribbean/gulf for development, although we do get the occasional catl storm or even some CV storms
2269. TayTay
RIP, Karen.
2270. aquak9
"difficult and confusing"

hahahaha...yeah, a real big g'mornin to ya, SJ....
yay Ive seen my first RIP karen of the morning....reminds me of the RIP 99L' and the RIP 94L's LOL
Morning aqua :~)
99L looked RIP for days near Bermuda, but as the shear finally decreased, it organized and become Subtropical storm Gabrielle, which then became Tropical Storm Gabrielle

94L looked RIP due to dmin and some shear, but as it entered a more favorable enviroment, it developed and became Felix
Actually extreme, about as many storms make it off the African coast in October as are formed in the Caribbean. The difference is they rarely make it all the way west past 65 or so. Large numbers recurve; others, I guess get wiped out by shear.
Posted By: BahaHurican at 12:28 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Actually extreme, about as many storms make it off the African coast in October as are formed in the Caribbean. The difference is they rarely make it all the way west past 65 or so. Large numbers recurve; others, I guess get wiped out by shear.


Hmmm didnt know about that, but yea most EATL storms go out to sea this time of the year,
IKE. I still see no circulation. Looks open, no rotation. What am I missing here ?
Karens circulation is getting very small and extremely disorganized. I would not be surprised if she could not survive the next 24hrs.. until the swirl is gone though she always has some potential to redevelop.
Good morning everyone!

What could be better than a cup of coffee and weather surfing when you wake up in the morning...

I see we have Karen and Melissa out there. Anyone think either one of them are going to make it through the shear or are we still in "wait and see" mode?

Melissa
pottery, it is a very broad disorganized circulation.
Thank you for the updates IKE and Adrian!
2281. A4Guy
I don't think Karen will make it through the day. We have rarely - if ever - seen a storm that has started out as a strong trop storm/weak 'cane survive this much shear for so long. If she had started out as a cat 2+ storm before encountering the shear, maybe she would have had a greater chance of making through 3 days of storm hell.

Not a doomcaster/wishcaster/fishcaster...just trying to be objective....and just like everyone else, I may be wrong in my opinion.
Curious to see if we see a final advisory for Karen this morning. Not out of the question if you ask me.
2283. Drakoen
Good morning everyone.
I am wrong in my opinion I will eat a crow sandwich :)
Morning SJ.

I expect a downgrade to TD at 11 AM today. If Karen doesn't regain convection near her center, she'll perish within 24 hours.

Lower Level Convergence (Link) is very high east of the center, where convective bursts have been pretty common lately. However, the reason I think it's unlikely the center will regain convection is because of the negative values of convergence directly over it. Over the COC values are as low as -10.

Could a new center try to form under the heavy convection to the current center's east?
None of the female Storms this year have accomplished anything special. They always just die, while the male Storms turn into cat 5s, turn into Hurricanes while sitting on the coast, or just go against all the forecasts. Maybe the girls will have a better chance next year
Morning yall. Guess we are still in a wait and see mode?
As long as even a remnant low of karen remains, she needs to be watched
2290. Drakoen
TerraNova when the imagery shows minus that means surface divergence.
They aren't posting tropical forecast points for Karen...Is she 'undone?'
Link
2292. msphar
Before she does anything else she must reach 55W, I think she is near 16N 54W. Offset convection and strong shear seem to be her trademark.
OK SJ. Looks dubious though.
Good morning to you. Its a lovely one here, with showers planned for later today !
2295. Drakoen
I'm sure if Karen can hold on like this. Yesterday
it wasn't as bad as this. Going to be a tough call. Also i am seeing multiple swirls.
29/1145 UTC 16.8N 54.8W T1.5/2.0 KAREN
Good morning I can't blog long today. But anyway. I doubt that we will see Karen's last advisoriy issued TODAY, not even 11pm. She is still a Tropical Storm, and even if she weakens to a Depression at 11am, wich I doubt will happen as well. I think she can handel 2 advisories after that. Just my thoughts does anyone agree?
And, wasn't she supposed to be a TD all ready? Thanks
They aren't posting tropical forecast points for Karen...Is she 'undone?'

Sometimes they don't post forecast points on the satellite images regulary.
I want to eat a crow sandwich at 11am advisory.
Looks like Mellissa will have some issues with the shear as well
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 12:46 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Looks like TD 14 will have some issues with the shear as well


All depends on its path, but Melissa is bound to run into shear in about 48-72 hours or so
Morning TN
I have been batting that idea (center reform) around in my head a little this morning. Maybe if there was a mid level circulation and what we are seeing is the low level running away...Not sure though. I kind of doubt it, but will keep a lazy eye on that possibility.
The COC (at least the dominant one) is displaced from the convection just south of 17N, 55W. Another swirl is located just east of 16N, 54W.

ssd
2306. GKP
Are we getting the remenents of Lorenzo along the Texas Coast now? What is that blob approaching from Brownsville to Indianola Beach, or Matagorda Bay and ship channel?
wow...really hope Karen can hold on here. Its getting late in the season, and no landfalls here yet. Will we have to wait another year? AND its supposed to be La Nina...what a big dissapointment...
Posted By: whirlwind at 12:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

wow...really hope Karen can hold on here. Its getting late in the season, and no landfalls here yet. Will we have to wait another year? AND its supposed to be La Nina...what a big dissapointment...


No one wants a cane to make landfall
2311. Drakoen
Karen looks like a double barrel low.
WOW dosen't Mellissa =8 in September??
2313. Drakoen
I think though the she will be able to sustain herself for one more day. Could be wrong though...
MichaelSTL mentioned that La Nina increase activity in the Caribbean but I think he said it also decrease activity in the mid atlantic. BTW, Erin is quite special, she redeveloped near Oklahoma
Can somone please point the center of Karen out. I am like the NHC finding it hard to find
When hurricanes form its a lot easier to find the center..the eye..
2318. Drakoen
Posted By: HouseofGryffindor at 12:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.
Drak, can that be a good thing for Karen though? If she can establish a COC under that convection it could help her hold on another day. It will be interesting to watch today and see if she can form more convection closer to her center like she has done the past two days.


No thats not a good thing. That means there are two lows competing. I'm not going to start with the reformation of a center untill i see more evidence that there is one possibly forming.
TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 53.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 51.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


now it is a TD
theres still hope... how many times have the NHC been wrong..lol.. many..

didnt Andrew AND Katrina re-develop outta crap looking waves? yes...
2322. Drakoen
I would watch mellissa as we well. She won't go out to sea so easily with that area of high pressure building to her north.
looking at the archives andrew looked a-lot worse than Kareen did
Can somone please point the center of Karen out. I am like the NHC finding it hard to find

Two centers:

centers
Yes drakeon i found that as well. But she will run into shear. but watch still yaa know
2326. hahaguy
does anyone know how much shear karen is in now
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:58 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

I would watch mellissa as we well. She won't go out to sea so easily with that area of high pressure building to her north.


Would that provide a more favorable enviroment, or just provide the steering?
Karen is the little engine that could, she thinks she can, she thinks she can....can she?
Thanks, looks like she is dying a slow death. She did put up one hell of a fight though. RIP Karen
Thats a TS that is pretty far out
I would watch mellissa as we well. She won't go out to sea so easily with that area of high pressure building to her north.

Ya but in a few days she'll encounter heavy shear. However, by then the shear could have weakened.
2334. Drakoen
Posted By: extreme236 at 1:00 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:58 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

I would watch mellissa as we well. She won't go out to sea so easily with that area of high pressure building to her north.

Would that provide a more favorable enviroment, or just provide the steering?


Steering for a more westward track.
Shear is really abnormally high...

take a look Link


Click on shear tendancy... everything is either red or white.. BAD really bad for development
Posted By: whirlwind at 1:02 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Shear is really abnormally high...

take a look Link


Click on shear tendancy... everything is either red or white.. BAD really bad for development


Everything isnt that way...and if you notice, the high shear in the GOM and the east coast is from a FRONT/TROF, so it wont stay there forever
and if you looked at a shear map during katrina, most of the atlantic was unfavorable, and just favorable in the gulf
2339. hahaguy
is that shear map recent beacuse if so she is in decreasing shear
WATCH THE WINDSHEAR ANALYSIS,IF KAREN GETS TO LAT:25N LON:57W,SHE WILL HAVE 5-10 KTS OF SHEAR
Excuse me Drakoen, but does a weak large circulation usually break up into several smaller ones like in Karen?
Yes hahaguy brings up a good point...not so much for Karen as for Mellissa. But Karen too.
I feel that others are writing Karen off too soon. Looks like this storm has a lot of potential to strengthen and could go almost anywhere. Melissa also looks interesting.
The map shear is of 5 am,but mabybe later we may have a decrease
2347. Drakoen
Posted By: JustSouthofEquator at 1:05 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.
Excuse me Drakoen, but does a weak large circulation usually break up into several smaller ones like in Karen?

yes sometimes. Multiple swirls form.
My take on the sheer map is if K moves more NW than WNW she will be in much better enviroment. It does appear the sheer is relaxing. If she moves W she is in more troble than she is in now
NHC is still hell bent on the NNW turn for days everytime she/Karen jogs N she turns back nearly due west, man can't they see how wrong the models have been , from the first advisory she should way north of the latitude of the Leewards by now.
2352. Nashda
Good Morning everyone!!! WOW MELISSA!!! and Karen still hanging on!!!!!!! Impressive...
The GFS shear forecast has wind shear dropping back to favorable levels in about 30 hours...but barely maintains a system to take advantage of it.
Can someone post the link for the animation of the forecast tracks please? I can't seem to find it
Recently a good portion of our storms are just "popping" out of nowhere....at this rate by october I could be like "Holy crap TD number 25?!!" lol....j/k
Can someone post the link for the animation of the forecast tracks please? I can't seem to find it

Link
2357. Drakoen
The upper level low to the north of Karen in association with an upper level trough is beginning to weaken.
According to this, the shear in front of Karen is likely to decrease radically by tomorrow. If she holds on today, tomorrow we may begin to see a reversing trend. We'll have to see if she builds convection near a centre this afternoon. If so, we COULD be in trouble next week . . .
A downgrade at 11am is expected with Karen...
Sorry terranova, but I meant the animation of the actual track created by the NHC that shows all of its projected paths since the beginning of the Storm.
2361. Drakoen
yes Bahahurican thats why i said she is not done yet. If she was a naked swirl without any convection near her it would be different but in the case she might be able to pull through.
Here you go....TD.

29/1145 UTC 16.8N 54.8W T1.5/2.0 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean
Sorry terranova, but I meant the animation of the actual track created by the NHC that shows all of its projected paths since the beginning of the Storm.

LOL. Here:

Link
This shows how much the track has shifted for Karen during it's life..

Link
Terra,

If there's a system left at all, we could eventually see a 'cane [again] out of Karen. The link I posted just now suggests that there is likely to be little shear over what's left of Karen between Mon and Wed. Additionally SSTs in that area are warm, and that part of the ATL hasn't been disturbed all season.

Tonight's the night . . .

Anyway I need to be heading out. I'll check in around 4 or so - see what's spinning.
we already know that H23, I knew she was a TD when the 12Z model runs started...but as drak is saying, she may not be done yet
23 i this post that T # a few post down so we no that
I doubt the NHC would stop advisories if they figured shear was going to drop off soon
Off to meet presslord for a cup of coffee on this beautiful morning here along the Carolina coast. Nice and cool as the trough has brought cooler temps in behind it.

See y'all in a few hours.

For those that may not have seen, I have added tutorials for the FSU experimental site to the
Video Tutorial Index. Hope to add some more later this afternoon.

You can also find that page as well as many imagery, forecast model, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and many other sites from the
Quick Links page
2371. Drakoen
There is convection within that upper level low. Since the surface is warm and upper level lows are cold the upper level low is slowed down by friction. The convection brings warm air and the effect of the friction upwards. This leads to the upper level low weakening.
Funny, The NHC doesn't seem as inclined to give Karen last rights as it does Melissa. She is a tough cookie and she may rear her little head before it's all over with... Who can say???
Have a great time SJ!
Regardless if Karen hangs on and miraculously reintensifies back to a storm or hurricane, the longwave pattern is very unfavorable for an east coast strike late next week or weekend. Very strong westerlies forecast at 264 GFS hours and this has been the trend for the past 3 or 4 runs now. Unless Karen goes way south, this WILL be a "fish storm."
23,

I'm sure a downgrade is possible, and even likely. But even if NHC maintains Karen only as a depression, to me it implies there's still something to watch out there.

Holy smokes! Wasn't Ingrid gone by this point? It looks right now like Karen needs another 72 hrs of shear to fully "do her in" . . .
2376. Drakoen
chucktown would you like that written in stone. You are talking about a model at 264 hours. There is not consistency at that time frame. Model skill drops quite dramatically past 5 days.
where did everyone go?
its all most GW season
Drak - so do tropical models. Why is everyone so gung ho on the GFDL and the WRF? It will be October on Monday and the trough frequency will continue to increase as well as in strength. All the planets will have to allign for Karen to hit the East Coast.
if Karen survived 2 days,why can't she survive 1 more day?
If there's a system left at all, we could eventually see a 'cane [again] out of Karen. The link I posted just now suggests that there is likely to be little shear over what's left of Karen between Mon and Wed. Additionally SSTs in that area are warm, and that part of the ATL hasn't been disturbed all season.

Ya if Karen survives the next 24-36 hours intact, reintensification will probably begin to occur.
looks like remnants of lorenzo are being pushed back out into the western gulf, any chance of re-development.....again!
2383. hahaguy
wow the blog really slowed down in the last few minutes
Wow! Karen is one of the toughest cookies I have seen in a long time! If she keeps doing what she's done the last few days it's not rip for Karen. Still need to watch this one.
Where did everyone go? Just bc Karen's a little weak looking this morning doesn't mean we should get off the blog...this is the time for our big arguments about where it's going....I'll start the debate...it's going to North Carolina
well said Hurricane23.
Amen 23
CIMSS has downgraded Karen to a depression.

Tropical Depression KAREN
Morning All!

I see Karen will be stripped down to a TD this morning, still there though, can't believe it. Melissa not looking so fishey this morning, wonder if she'll be a player in the long term future.
wthrfrk, it looks like karen may survive, and is approaching more favorable conditions for development, even if she is just a wave by that time. why nc, hunch or do you have some steering insight?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:42 AM EDT on September 29, 2007.

oh is 23 calling little kinds?

Taz man give me break there are no names in my post and i just basically wanted to express some thoughts thats about it.Adrian
12Z shear map continues to show decreasing shear over both Karen and Melissa
ok 23
Yep expect a TD at 11am....Looking forward to that discussion once again.
Mildly surprised that Karen was not downgraded @ 5, but it is hard for me to think she won't be downgraded @ 11 am, cause she is so decoupled.
I agree Adrian, it's defintely not like it was back in 04 and 05
Posted By: blueranch at 1:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.
wthrfrk, it looks like karen may survive, and is approaching more favorable conditions for development, even if she is just a wave by that time. why nc, hunch or do you have some steering insight?

It's more of a narrowing down...I think if it heads in the general direction of FL now then it will be completely destroyed by the shear. If it heads too far North it will be a fish, and the high is blocking any landfall North of the carolinas as i see it....Looks to me like if it survives to be anything that the Carolina coast could be in trouble.
Last nights was rather entertaining from Blake, lol.
Not really a suprise as this was indeed forcasted by the NHC with a weakening trend.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.2mb/ 43.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.2 2.0 1.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Center Temp : +17.9C Cloud Region Temp : 13.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG



Good morning friends!

Happy Saturday; I'm busy at work so will only be able to lurk form time to time.

several keep saying that October storms are "unusual" ? actually mid Oct has another "peak" time.. I think October may be as active as August in number of storms.
and we do have Nov storms because I remember a few; even in those "inactive" years. Granted they were not strong in November...but October has given us some bad ones in the past 10 years, usually very "wet" ones... 1995 Gordon, 1998 Irene, 1999 unnamed Oct storm, flooding,
WILMA destroyed South Florida. not much rain, this was a wind event.

so it may be "over" but I wouldn't start using up your supplies yet; wait until Thanksgiving. LOL
2406. Drakoen
yes Adrian for sometime it has been. Looks like its finally happened. She been fighting through those advisories to keep her status.
well IMO the NHC may keep Karen as a TD throughout today just because of the fact that she will enter a more favorable enviroment soon
wthrfrk good analysis, thanks.
Posted By: eye at 1:50 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

poor Karen, looks like another Ingridish type deal.....held on so long, but right when the favorable upper level winds occured her heart beat just was too weak to take advantage of it and flatlined.


karen hasnt entered the favorable enviroment yet...both the GFDL and HWRF forecast that to happen tomorrow, as do most other models...the GFDL and HWRF bring her back up to cane status, although could very well be a fish
Oh yes, weather related just not storm related.
I know some of you are getting "fall like' temps and humidity.
Here is our 9:30am conditions in Broward County Florida this morning.

Observed at: Hill Observatory, Lauderhill, Florida
Elevation: 10 ft / 3 m

84.1 F / 28.9 C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 71% Dew Point: 74 F / 23 C
Wind: 1.0 mph / 1.6 km/h / 0.4 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph / 1.6 km/h
Pressure: 29.98 in / 1015.1 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 91 F / 33 C

I'm not so sure she will make it anymore but, I've seen crazier things happen. Maybe if it held on to TS status but, I don't think a depression will be able to handle another 24 to 36 hrs of this amount of shear. As always, could be wrong, just my opinion.
hurricane23

Agree. I rarely post anything more that links. It's not worth having to wordsmith every sentence so as not to offend someone or initiate a debate based on your own opinion. Yes, back in the day when katrina was "that blob north of puerto rico"
already, as drak pointed out, the ULL north of karen is weakening, therefore shear is dropping
Guys can you see the latest windshear analysis i tell me what you thinkWindshear analysis
2417. eye
extreme, that it what I am saying, she has another day to day and a half of this shear as a TD....Ingrid had a very strong circulation and right when those conditions occured, she was way too weak to take advantage of them....some of the models predicted she would regenerate also if I am not mistaken.

Maybe the leftovers of Karen and the system that might form off the E Coast will join up. She looks very very sick, dont know how she will survive another day and a half as a tropical depression.
2418. hahaguy
my comment isnt showing up
Season is definately far from over for S.Florida. Temps are still approaching 90 degrees with water temps in the mid 80s.
its all most time for GW season
She might not survive eye, that is why I gave her a 70/30 chance in favor of dying...lol
the next hot spot could be the nw carib..
2423. Drakoen
yes shear is starting to drop. Still has a long way to go.
but if she survives thru today into tomorrow, those chances for her survival spike upward
2425. eye
extreme. she still has a day and a half at least to deal with 30-40 kts(according to the wind shear chart), at least it is not 60kts, but i dont see how she will survive facing those winds much longer...and she looks terrible, worst she has looked since the shear started.
By: extreme236 at 6:53 AM PDT on September 29, 2007.

already, as drak pointed out, the ULL north of karen is weakening, therefore shear is dropping



but it is too late the wind shear has done there job on here
can someone show me the COC on a satilite image?
2429. eye
I agree with Taz, just like with Ingrid, the wind shear has so severely weakened Karen that she probably will not be able to take advantage of the favorable conditions(reminant low)
karen will be a open wave by afternoon..
2431. eye
Taz, are you ready to say.....

Poofed?
If Karen dissipates, the remnant low may try to restrengthen.
vabeachhurricanes2 go back to page 47. Terranova added circles on the satellite picture showing where the circulations are :)
what you all think of 91W?

they this put this up not too long a go




2436. mit5000
next 1 to watch: renmants of mellisa when it gets to the u.s.a
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

By: extreme236 at 6:53 AM PDT on September 29, 2007.

already, as drak pointed out, the ULL north of karen is weakening, therefore shear is dropping



but it is too late the wind shear has done there job on here


Taz, there are several things that could happen with karen...she isnt dead yet, there is still some potential
Taz I don't see anything there
Posted By: extreme236 at 1:57 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

but if she survives thru today into tomorrow, those chances for her survival spike upward


That is a big "if". If the trend continues I wouldn't be surprised to see an open wave by later today or tomorrow morning.
ok
karen could die, or she could survive...we dont know which of the two will happen...i will be back in a bit
i no and thats funny they put up 91W and there not sny thing there LOL
Local meteorologist (T.V.) mentioned something possibly spinning up in the Florida Straights in the next few days. I'm assuming that's the left overs from 97L.
I do see a very weak circulation moving towards that area.
do yall think the nw carib..could be the next hot spot..soon
2445. mit5000
this is like world war 6 for tropical cyclones

shear v ssts and a fighting convection patten

who will win?

(shear won last time!)
ed By: clwstmchasr at 2:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 1:57 PM GMT on September 29, 2007.

but if she survives thru today into tomorrow, those chances for her survival spike upward

That is a big "if". If the trend continues I wouldn't be surprised to see an open wave by later today or tomorrow morning.

After just checking the satellite loop I firmly believe that at the 11:00 advisory they will take it down to a 25kt td with a forecast of a remnant low by 5:00. She is almost gone.
In October action usually shifts South (Caribbean). S.W GOM.
With over 50 mph of shear im a trully amazed with this system.
Good morning! Lurk on this blog much more often than I post reserving comments for times they may add value. There are so many variables involved in making a forecast. One can take a valid or invalid point and find supporting data for a logical argument sometimes intentionally I'm afraid. There are several posts that I watch for valued insight and analysis. Just wanted to say thanks. Without using names, I'm sure you will know who I'm referring to.
2450. eye
I doubt Karen will regenerate, I think she will be an open wave by Sunday, real hard for them to regenerate when they degenerate to an open wave....

yeah yeah yeah Katrina Katrina Katrina....but how many didnt do that...ALOT more.(exception rather than the rule)
Within the next 24 hours shear should start to lay off of our Karen.
DR. Masters has over slept.
2453. Drakoen
The only way Karen will survive is if she repeats what she did yesterday afternoon. We will know soon what her fate is.
Looking at the big picture....an old frontal trough near the Bahamas...showers from yesterday moved into Central America....Karen fighting shear....Melissa in the far east.....except for Karen and Melissa u could say things have quiet down.

anybody have a comment or analysis of western GOM?
eye,
Thank you for the analysis of Karen

Taz,
91W a cloud swirl?
Navy has her as 30 knots....BBL

1345.goes12.x.vis1km_high.12LKAREN.30kts-1009mb-165N-535W.100pc.jpg

Tropical MetEd: Upper Level Low Transition to Tropical Cyclone
Mornin' folks
2459. IKE
I haven't read the update on Karen, yet...but, looking at the visible, my guess is they downgraded her?
2460. Drakoen
00
WTNT42 KNHC 291440
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

STRONGER THAN AVERAGE SHEAR NEAR KAREN IS WINNING THE BATTLE.
KAREN IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS THE CENTER IS LOSING
DEFINITION AND THE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
AREA OF MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. IT LOOKS LIKE KAREN IS
BECOMING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. I WAS TEMPTED TO MAKE THIS THE
LAST ADVISORY BUT INSTEAD...AND A BETTER OPTION...IS TO DOWNGRADE
KAREN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FORECAST IT TO BE A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS WILL GIVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR IF A
NEW CENTER REFORMS NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT
THAT GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MAKE KAREN A HURRICANE BY 3 TO 4 DAYS. THESE MODELS
ASSUME THAT KAREN WILL SURVIVE THE BAND OF STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY...I HIGHLY
VALUE THE NUMERICAL MODELS...SO KAREN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION...OR THE BROAD REMNANT CIRCULATION..IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION. THERE IS NO REASON TO DISCUSS TRACK
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WHICH IN FACT HAS NOT CHANGED.
2461. amd
Karen needs a burst of convection over the center of circulation in the next few hours or else it may finally be over for Karen.

Karen, as a storm, looks horrible right now.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 291439
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2007

...KAREN NOT LIKELY TO SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES...850 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN HAS WEAKENED AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. KAREN COULD DEGENERATE INTO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...53.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2463. Drakoen
yes Ike they have...
2464. hahaguy
they did shes at 30knts
2465. IKE
Yup...they did...

"stronger than average shear near Karen is winning the battle.
Karen is becoming disorganized as the center is losing
definition and the convection remains well removed from the
area of minimum surface pressure. It looks like Karen is
becoming a trough of low pressure."....

Link

Playing catchup this morning...this is the clearest pic I've been able to find of what looks like Karen's COC. Little sputter just south of the COC...so I'm not sure that Im ready to count this one out......YET *shrugs*
2468. IKE
I guess the GFS was right after all.

And all the talk on here about her hitting the east coast. Not.
IKE,
I don't know if it would be wise to jump the gun on Karen being dead. IMO
Ok. More on shear and hurricanes. Let's say we look at the vertical column of air outside the eye of a strong hurricane. Let's take a point 50 mi outside the eye and due east of the center. Let's say the hurricane is moving due north at 10 mi per hour. The wind at the surface is 120 miles an hour. Now what happens as we go up the column. My sense is that when we get to the top of the column, the wind is streaming in approximately the opposite direction. The air has lost a tremendous amount of mass, so presumably it doesn't have to be moving as fast, but let's say it's moving at 30 miles an hour. So what ever the shear is in the hurricanes environment, the hurricane itself has developed a SHEAR OF 150 MILES PER HOUR. Right?

Not all shear is bad for hurricanes.

OK. Now lets say that at 30 thousand feet there is a north wind blowing. at ten miles per hour. Now there is a 20 mile per hour [environmental] shear on the whole storm. The outflow at high altitudes will be distorted to the south.

This is BAD shear. Right?

If this sort of sheer is great enough to diminish the storm's ability to maintain its "internal" shear, then teh storm will decrease in strength, because it will become much less efficient at converting potential energy to wind and moving water around.

But at that point the total sheer on the storm, internal and external will actually have diminished? NO?

Seems that way to me.

Calvin