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Hurricane Katrina death toll raised to 1823

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:09 PM GMT on May 23, 2006

Louisiana raised its official death toll from Hurricane Katrina by 281 to 1,577, according to an Associated Press article from May 19. The Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals decided decided that deaths caused by the stress and trauma associated with relocating or an accidental injury during travel should be counted as a Katrina-related death. This would bring the death toll from Katrina to 1823, when including the 228 deaths in Mississippi, 14 in Florida, 2 in Georgia, and 2 in Alabama. It is unlikely that the National Hurricane Center will consider these deaths part of the official death toll, but regardless, Katrina is the third deadliest hurricane ever to hit the U.S.

Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico
Extensive cloudiness and thunderstorm activity continue in the Gulf of Mexico, where an upper-level area of low pressure sits. Wind shear is too high in the Gulf to allow tropical development of this system, and wind shear is expected to stay high for at least the next week over the Gulf. Tropical storm formation is not likely in the Atlantic for at least the next week, and probably longer. The GFS model is indicating that a stong subtropical jet stream will blow across the Gulf for the next two weeks, which should create too much shear for a tropical storm to develop.

I'll be back tomorrow with my article on the new global warming ads being aired by the fossil fuel industry.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

As a matter of fact, there is nothing in the Gulf or tropics either for that matter. It is DRY. Only convection occuring are daytime popcorn storms.
I say we will get a storm around mid june...
yeah hellsniper im thinking late June
Thank You Dr. Masters for your insight! I hope ST is listening!..LOL
I doubt it 03
Stormtop will probably be on here later tonight or tomorrow afternoon and disagree with everything Dr. Masters posted, and give no reasons why he thinks otherwise
WOW dr jeff what took so long?
Did any of you see my post about FEMA not being ready for this season?
eff Masters



hey hey DR jell you no what you need to fix up your blog you for got the J on you name now we can call you eff Masters ah ah ah ah LOL this kiding
10. WSI
"Wind shear is too high in the Gulf to allow tropical development of this system, and wind shear is expected to stay high for at least the next week over the Gulf."

Stormtop... do you see this? I think I hinted at the same thing earlier where you ignored me. Read carefully.
WSI he will get on here tonight or tomorrow and disagree with Dr. Masters...he has done it before..except he doesnt explain himself
The Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals decided that deaths caused by the stress and trauma associated with relocating or an accidental injury during travel should be counted as a Katrina-related death.
Point to Note : it's a problem with statistics as to which input numbers are valid, and how do they compare to previously recorded measurements.
You guys spur ST on and enjoy it. It keeps the blog hopping until something really is happening. Then everybody complains about his clutter on the blog, it's almost as much entertainment as CSI.
Almost as much entertainment as CSI? I say more!

That invest over in the East Pacific is looking quite pretty, I must say.
as far as statistics go, I saw a military decoration citation a while back that actually said, "contributed to 1,175.5 saves during Hurricane Katrina relief efforts". I'd hate to be that .5 save.
16. WSI
"and enjoy it"

Actually I don't. I really wish his attitude torward others would change here. I think he could really contribute if he weren't so contrary.
Ok people... Revel in your correctness. You can stop bashing ST now... His mom might get angry.
Who is eff and what did he do with Jeff? :P
Link

I think it might start raining soon. =D
easy now! Nobody is correct until the storm has passed. He is just more entertaining in his presentation than most. He does post some good maps and info at times, I'll give him that. Besides, without him who would provide us with controversy...
True...
lets not forget comedy also navarre
ok peoples logging off. night
"GET OVER IT"

I am beside myself more then any of you can imagine.

It seems there are two sides to every story, yet folks just dont get the golden rule.

Bloggers who supported Tony when many of us couldnt understand WHY he was home when his newborn was deathly ill and in the hospital, and when his wife was in the hospital after an accident and possibly losing a 36 week fetus(doctors will take them by emergency C-section at 26 weeks as I have seen this in my own family, babys are fine.) You all gave some of us hell because we questioned him and his mental health.

Yet these same bloggers are chewing to pieces another blogger (Stormtop) who posted his thoughts on the hurricane season last year, including going through one himself. Wether some came true or not.

This does not seem fair. Accept what others think of things, if you disagree, say so an get over it, including any further reply to them or about them.

We all really came together last year and became a family of some sort, and well need each other this year too.


If you disagree with others, thats OK, just let it go and move on to something else. It is unfair to criticize one blogger for disagreeing and then posting negative comments against another.

Some may agree with this and some may not and that is fine.

Just my 2 cents.

gptguy, How are things there? my Dad works down your way periodically and say's it's still pretty messed up. I hope you get spared this season. He's 100 miles inland and still is picking up the pieces, not as bad as there, but still.
its not that Rays..its just the fact that he doesnt back up his "predictions" with explanations..and when someone else challenges him or predicts something he is rude and arrogant..basically calling people idiots!
well things are progressing fairly well in the Gulfport/Biloxi area..of course the beachfront up to about a mile inland is wiped out but the debris is mostly gone...its communities to the west that are still reeling..like Waveland, Bay St. Louis, Pass Christian and Long Beach...not much sales tax revenue coming in in those places..and in some areas the debris is still there and it looks like the hurricane hit yesterday
Looked like that after Ivan in spots. My heart goes out to my fellow Mississippians. You all did us proud, nobody else took care of themselves like you all did. Country Boy/Gal can survive, yeah!
yeah well navarre we try not to let it get us down..and we appricate all the help that came from Florida..even with that state having there own hurricane troubles..i donated to Red Cross after Hurricane Ivan
30. Inyo
So, it loomks like Katrina killed about half as many people as the WTC... if only we spent half as much money on hurricane research as we did 'the war on terror'.

I'm not saying we shouldnt take measures to deal with terroism.. of course, we should. However, the resources spent on research for natural disasters are paltry.
interesting point
In comparison the War on Terror is easy. Mother nature brings energies that we "humans" can only just now bring to bare in miniscule quantities. The most powerful computers on the planet "tera flops" can't model the weather accuratley. We can deal with a few zealots, human kind always has. The planet is an entirely different matter. There are ways to influence weather, but what will our interference cause in the long run, !global Warming!, look what we did unintentionally. The balance is there we just don't understand it. Hurricanes transport energy, if we interfere, what will happen?... We just rent here, someday the land lord may kick us out. How 'bout the dinosaurs?.....
Jeff Masters mail for you need to fix your blog up you foo got to put the J in with your name
Inyo - interesting you would say the we spent so little money. I discovered this week that some comm guys for FEMA aren't getting funding for radio interoprerabilty. A simple fix, $20K per unit would set them up but, they may not get it until after this year. Considering that a couple FEMA trailers, sitting unused, costs about that much, where's the problem. One of the biggest problems they had last year was communications. I'll get off my soap box now, maybe, IF somebody will ever listen (not you guys).
Yo, new here, but ... the back biting going on reminds me of how July is for my fantasy football league. We draw for draft position in early August. Before then the testoterone gets a little out there. So here we are in May and any hurricane nut (like me) is hoping for cataclysms.

I had never seen the thermal wind charts of warm core and cold core before. Interesting stuff. Curious how do they determine this info?
Babbit, once you endure a cataclsym, you never want to endure one again. The charts are Kool, this is the first year I've seen them. I think they are a new tool they use. New to me anyway. These guys like to impress us "me at least" neophytes with there gizmos. Good info though. I have learned alot here "this blog" since last year.
Cataclysms are real and fortunately a rare life-experience. I agree no one wants one for real, not really. I was using hyperbole. As a kid Hilda and Betsy were fun, Camille was awe on your front door, but I wasn't in the tornado that killed 30+ people for Hilda or down in Plaquemines for Betsy. Never mind Pass Christian for Camille.
Jax weather update: hot and no rain. I hope that low in the Gulf at least dumps rain on us. I'd even take cloudy. I miss the summers of daily t-storms in the afternoons.

BTW, GFS has something off of Cuba on June 7th--lol 15 days out on a model :D

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&modelrun=0&map=SURPRE&time=360&model=GFS&domain=CA

B
I wasn't "here" for Camille, but I saw first hand Ivan. Yes, they are a fact of life, they come and they go. You just hope you aren't the one in the path. I ran from the coast after the last couple of years. I just hope that this isn't the harbinger of things to come. Seems like it's getting worse, and the forcasters don't have a clue, god help us if it hits another major metropolitan area, say Long Island. The expansion of population is going to extrapolate the casualty figures. Not to mention the commercial explotation of information that will cause the "cryed wolf" reaction.
*crickets*
LOL "BIG CRICKETS"
hehe... 15 days and we will see if my Mid-early june prediction for a storm is true. ^_^. I happen to like that model, rsxe7en. Thanks for the link =D
hi taco2me61
Hey Taz how are you tonight



Taco:0)
15 days out!
What made you dig that deep into the models? Storm starved, huh? C'mon down here and look around. I promise a good view of storm surge this year from 1/2 mile inland! Nothing in the way anymore.
: taco2me61 i am doing good tonight


david
ok now 1823 how can a cat 3 do that
Hellsniper223,

Yes I also say sometime around the 15th-18th will be our first storm of the year... But we will have to wait and see...


Taco:0)
heh, almost got a direct hit from Dennis last year... That storm was... Fun. And it didn't seem like there was mutch dammage at all. Well, actually i couldn't tell because the dammage from Ivan was all mixed in with the dammage from Dennis.
I got a direct hit from Dennis, the tower recording 120 mph wind was less than 1 mile from where I lived at the time. If you were in Gulf Breeze you know what damage can be (Ivan) or on the water between Navarre and there. Don't get the crickets thing?
Check this out..lol..UKMET Future Low 50. Future warm core low forming in the plains.
Posted By: Raysfan70 at 11:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2006.
"GET OVER IT"

I am beside myself more then any of you can imagine.

It seems there are two sides to every story, yet folks just dont get the golden rule.

Bloggers who supported Tony when many of us couldnt understand WHY he was home when his newborn was deathly ill and in the hospital, and when his wife was in the hospital after an accident and possibly losing a 36 week fetus(doctors will take them by emergency C-section at 26 weeks as I have seen this in my own family, babys are fine.) You all gave some of us hell because we questioned him and his mental health.

Yet these same bloggers are chewing to pieces another blogger (Stormtop) who posted his thoughts on the hurricane season last year, including going through one himself. Wether some came true or not.

This does not seem fair. Accept what others think of things, if you disagree, say so an get over it, including any further reply to them or about them.

We all really came together last year and became a family of some sort, and well need each other this year too.


If you disagree with others, thats OK, just let it go and move on to something else. It is unfair to criticize one blogger for disagreeing and then posting negative comments against another.

Some may agree with this and some may not and that is fine.

Just my 2 cents.


I disagree Ray....I think we spent over 50% of the time last year being preocupied by the personalities on this blog.....and we never did come together as a family of any sort....except some dysfunctional family. It's a terrible shame too, because if it wasn't for the diversions provided by Lefty/leftyy, Stormtop, the troubled youth, others, and the many made up characters provided by these people or others....it's very possible that we could have come together as a family.....and more importantly, we most likely could have saved an extra life or 2.
.
.
.
As this season starts, let's hope that we can do more good, and be rid of the multiple personalities and soap operas. And let's all be safe.
Navarre,

The reason for the Crickets was because no one was chating and like being out side after dark and if it is real quite you here crickets...LOL


Taco:0)
Cosmic,

All I can say is Thank You>>>>Well Said<<<<<



Taco:0)


Cosmic, I remember this blog passing information to family and friends trying to get in touch with one another. This blog is as educational as it is a public service, thank God. Thanks to the Doc and all that opine. I'm out.
taco2me61 do you want to talk with me in you no where?
Monster wave about to emerge off of Africa. Looks like the ITCZ is starting to make its shift north.
58. K8e1
yes...i remember Bertha and Fran struck my city in mid 90s within 3 months of each other Bertha was awesome...Fran was horrible
Bertha was a cat 1...Fran was a high 3
By the way, Wikipedia says that the death toll is 1,836; where did the extra 13 deaths come from (it lists the deaths from each state, and some of the numbers are different)?
60. K8e1
As a friend of Bill W., I was rather amazed at the power of the program during those two storms, especially Fran
sometimes in storms like Katrina and Camille with high storm surges bodys are not found for months ,years and some never ..Some are washed inland into wooded areas and some washed to sea...So your answer is there Michael.It mat take 10 years for that number to stop growing...
62. K8e1
Yes Outrocket
My mother was 12 years old during Hurricane Hazel
She said that afterward, they were playing in the woods and found a dead man laying under some leaves
had washed in during Hazel
63. K8e1
my point being that he had apparently not even been reported missing
64. K8e1
which brings to mind something else i have wondered about...what with the statement that this blog is better than CSI and all...i wonder how many people take advantage in that type of situation and commit homicide and stage it to look like an accident???
However, Wikipedia has been showing that number for at least several days now (someone else pointed it out).
there is still a missing list along the La,Ms coast line..and yes some people who were alone in the world may never be missed,sad but true...
Here is where I first saw the 1,836 number; it was posted more than 4 days ago.
Michael..I love books but one thing I have learned is all books of fact constantly update and cant be taken as fact forever......
Along the MS Gulf Coast, there is a large Vietnamese community. These guys (and sometimes the entire family) will ride out a storm on their shrimp boats. There were many dead on the Industrial Canal in Gulfport yet none are listed in the Sun Herald's death toll list. The most obvious reason for this is that many old timers in the Vietnamese community (because of Communism) do not trust the government, they "fly under the radar". Most do not speak English, even after being here since '75. The kids translate for them. Anyway, there was not one name listed as dead and yet there were many reports of people finding entire families dead on submerged shrimp boats. The authorities will never truly know the true death numbers.
GPT- I am glad to hear that things are improving still in the area. I spent a couple months with the Hands On group working down there, and it was simply overwhelming to see the scale of damage. I want to ask you about a story that I heard while working with the animal shelter there, the one that used to be north of the airport but is now relocated. One of the people that lived there was telling us stories about the days after the storm, and she said that she saw hundreds of bodies laid out in parking lots and other areas by recovery workers. She said that the "official" totals for MS are bullshit, and that many, many more died there. She did seem to be a little overenthusiastic and also traumatized, but I do have to agree after seeing the scale of damage that the official numbers seem awfully low. With the sheer number of homes and apartment complexes that just disappeared on the 70+ miles of coast, I would have expected much more.

To everyone, does anyone know what the time line is for the missing people to be declared dead? There are still a lot of those, and like was mentioned above many may never be found. They were still finding bodies when I was down there in late March, and large areas of New Orleans and St. Bernard Parish have not been thoroughly searched.

I was watching Discover channel last night and they had a special on what would happen if a Cat 3 hit NYC dead on. Got me thinking of a few things:

* If Katrina had hit at its peak the death toll could easily be 10 times as much

* The real death toll as some said will never be fully know ditto with 9/11 simply because some bodies will never been found or ID'ed not to mention all the illegals and homeless in both areas that are not part of the "system"

* If (insert deity here) forbid another major hurricane was to strike NOLA would the city still remain or would it dispear under nature's fury
"This would bring the death toll from Katrina to 1823, when including the 228 deaths in Mississippi, 14 in Florida, 2 in Georgia, and 2 in Alabama. It is unlikely that the National Hurricane Center will consider these deaths part of the official death toll"

Why not?
73. Boca
Any info on the sands coming off of Africa?
BTW, you can follow the African dust here. Also, it is not just dust or dry air; the air from Africa also produces wind shear that shreads storms (look at the Saharan Air Layer Background link).
Gosh, this is such a sad discussion. But we need to talk about this. I agree that there are probably many, many people unaccounted for in these various death tolls.

Orion, if another hurricane even comes near New Orleans, it will throw the city into an economic tailspin. But the city will survive. SF survived the 1906 quake, Manhattan survived 9/11, New Orleans will return (and in some respects it already has.)

As a nation and a world, we need to examine the consequences of redirecting Mother Nature (for example, the Mississippi River) dredging wetlands, and creating massive urban sprawl. We need to be honest about our impact on the environment, even if we don't like the implications (less consumption, smaller homes, fewer, smaller cars) We need to care more about our neighbors and less about our own (extreme) comfort (now I'm starting to sound preachy!!)

OK, time to drink more coffee and get to work.

-NOLA
Ok, I love all the story's about how you made it through this hurricane or that 5 or 10 years ago. But let me tell/remind every one here that the storm it self albeit the worse (destructive/scary) part of it passes in my opinion pretty quickly.

But that is not the worst part. The worst part is living in Florida (or any other gulf state) where the daily average temps at this time of year are 85-90 degrees with 100% humidity. When power is out to a million plus customers this means Gas Stations Grocery stores McDonalds all of it CLOSED. I was so humbled by the events following the Florida storms. I would have given you a cell phone or a 32"TV for a cup of ICE. I would have given up my car, which ran out of gas while I was searching for more after the SIXTH day, For an hour of sleep in AIR CONDITIONING. I would have paid (good money) for a HOT SHOWER.

Then it gets worse. Then the weather station says that another "System" is building strenght and may head "this way". The panic stricken public proceeds to buy up WHAT IS LEFT of the availible gas/water/canned foods/Plywood/flashligts/batteries/propane
Standing/waiting in gas lines a mile long for gas that was $3.50 a gallon and we were only alowed 15 gallons.

My opinion was that the storms themselves were actually pretty amazing (remember the worst we saw was CAT4 Charley/Ivan) (I would never have stayed if they had even a voluntary evac of my area).

The weeks after were way worse.

I saved my vacation time this year so that if anything heads anywhere near here You will be able to find me in Tennessee at a Hotel.
The dust does not look to be as bad as last year and I am not sure about the shear thing Micheal. It seems that the shear is lowest in that part of the Atlantic right now, so I am not sure what you are referencing?

SJ
Look at the link on the page (the Saharan air layer background link at the top) to see what they and I are talking about.

On another note, the GFS still shows the East Pacific invest developing. Link

NRL has it at 20 kts and 1008 mb, slightly lower than before (1010 mb).
BTW, why do many spell my name as Micheal?
I just don't see where it is causing a lot of shear right now, nor do I see where there is a ton of dust out there. Michael.

SJ
Maybe not right now, but is says that it can cause shear. Link (also has examples).
53rdweather I hear you, we had about 6-8weeks of no power or water and no breeze after Ivan, I think they could smell us in Cancun
Cregnebaa I hear you.

By the way obviously my tribulations are nil compared to some/most. Loosing a home, a loved one, a friend would naturally be the worst thing to deal with durring the post storm events. But I hope that anyone that reads this that has not been through one of these personnally or had been through one many years ago realizes the "whole" picture. Be prepared.
You are correct, I did see where it says it can cause shear. Does anyone else have any input on the severity of the dust this year?

SJ
It doesn't seam to be as severe this year, SJ. I watch the water vapor loops like a hawk and every once in awhile a little trough will push a puff of dry air off the coast, but its nothing like the jet of dusty air coming off the coast of Africa last year.

A point, though, about the dust. It doesn't make the air dry. In the case of the Saharan dust it's just going along for the ride with a push of dry air. In fact, if the dust were to wind up in humid air it would actually increase convection because the dust gives wator vapor particles to latch onto and make water droplets.
Usually, when dust is mentioned, it is because dust is often associated with dry air (think of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s).
In the obits in the MS Press and Sun Herald, in the weeks after the storm, there were many older people who passed away in that timeframe, and even though it was not on the day the hurricane hit, but after, I assumed that a number of these deaths were indirectly related to the hurricane. It seems appropriate that these be noted, but counted as a separate statistic.
BTW, where did the numbers here come from; it also includes several deaths in Ohio and Kentucky (nowhere near the Gulf Coast) and the Mississippi total is 238 (maybe a typo)?
The death in Kentucky was a result of flooding. The 2 deaths in Ohio are listed as indirect deaths, and my best guess is they were killed while trying to evacuate a low lying area.

Link
Jeff Masters' blog on the global warming ads is up.
53rdRecon, Excellent Post! Very Well Said.
The Aftermath of a Storm is Utterly Humbling.

Been There, Done That...
Next Time: Evac & Be Prepared!

Campaign for FL Hurricane Preparedness
"Wind shear is too high in the Gulf to allow tropical development of this system, and wind shear is expected to stay high for at least the next week over the Gulf."

Wasn't there several times last season when tropical storms developed in areas of "too high" wind shear?
I already posted the second link; in any case, Jeff Masters' GW ads blog is up.
Historical Risk that a tropical storm or hurricane will pass within 100 miles of your location during June.

Chart
louatsu, the two deaths in Ohio were the result of a traffic accident at night in a blinding rain squall.
About a 2% annual risk of a major hurricane passing within 100 miles of Tampa Bay. Well, Charley was a strong Cat 4 and made landfall about 80-90 miles south of us.
80-90 miles South of us was close enough, BTW...