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Hurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche; Bermuda eyes Igor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

Hurricane Karl explosively deepened into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane this morning, becoming the fifth major hurricane of this remarkably active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Karl is the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).


Figure 1. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

With Karl's ascension to major hurricane status, we are now ahead of the pace of the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 for number of major hurricanes so early in the year. In 2005, the fifth major hurricane (Rita) did not occur until September 21, and in 2004, the fifth major hurricane (Karl) arrived on September 19. Wunderblogger Cotillion has put together a nice page showing all the seasons with five or more major hurricanes. The last time we had five major hurricanes earlier in the season was in 1961, when the fifth major hurricane (Esther) arrived on September 13. This morning we continue to have three simultaneous hurricanes, Hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl. This is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight previous years since 1851. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. The year 2005 came within six hours of having three hurricanes at the same time, but the official data base constructed after the season was over indicates that the three hurricanes did not exist simultaneously.

Also remarkable this year is that are seeing major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl is the most southerly major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year.


Figure 2. Triple trouble, day two: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic at 9:45 am EDT, September 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Karl
Hurricane Karl put on a burst of intensification this morning unprecedented in this part of the Atlantic, bottoming out as a Category 3 hurricane with a 957 mb pressure and winds of 120 mph. Karl's pressure dropped 10 mb between 1am EDT and 7 am EDT, but the pressure during the Hurricane Hunters' latest pass through the eye, at 10:12 am, had risen 12 mb, likely indicating that Karl's winds may weaken quickly in the next few hours. Karl is getting very close to land, and interaction with land will probably limit further intensification. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the eye is very close to the coast.


Figure 3. Radar image of Karl approaching landfall in Mexico. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service.

Impact of Karl on Mexico
Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause unprecedented damage to a 50-mile wide coastal area between Veracruz and Poza Rica. The strongest hurricanes in history to affect the region were Item in 1950, with 110 mph winds, Janet in 1955, with 100 mph winds, and Diana of 1990, with 100 mph winds. Flooding from Janet killed over 800 people in Mexico. and flooding from Diana killed at least 139 people. Fortunately, the Mexicans have one of the best disaster preparedness programs in the world, and it is likely that evacuations from the storm surge zone of Karl will greatly limit the loss of life from storm surge. The section of coast expected to receive Karl's maximum 12 - 16 foot storm surge is moderately populated, but is low-lying only in limited regions. Of greatest concern are Karl's torrential rains, since the region has high mountains near the coast that will experience extreme rainfall and flooding. Karl's high winds are also a major concern, and these winds are likely to damage thousands of buildings near the coast.

Igor
Hurricane Igor has slowly weakened over the past day, but remains a large and dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Igor passed just north of buoy 41044 last night, and the buoy recorded a lowest pressure of 942 mb. Top winds during Igor's passage were sustained at 74 mph, but this reading was on the weak left front side of the hurricane. The buoy recorded a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and is expected to remain in this range through Saturday afternoon. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C through Saturday morning, then slowly decline. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next two days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status through Saturday afternoon. It is possible the hurricane will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph if it occurs, but Igor may regain its lost intensity once the cycle is over, as it has done after its previous two eyewall replacement cycles. By Saturday afternoon, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, potentially weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will not rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, until the hurricane reaches the island, which may be soon enough to induce substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph before Igor arrives at Bermuda. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday night, and perhaps a Category 3. NHC is giving Bermuda a 29% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 40 foot waves in the offshore waters, and 6 - 12 foot seas in the inland waters.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor is moving northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor to the northwest and north over the next three days, bringing the core of the storm very close to Bermuda late Sunday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 320 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 10 hours long. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 60 miles from the center when the core of Igor reaches Bermuda, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda. However, buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and damage on the island will be much lower than might otherwise be expected.

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

Igor's impact on the rest of the Atlantic
The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. and Canadian coasts--with the possible exception of southeast Newfoundland, which the ECMWF model predicts could see a close pass by Igor. The chief danger to the U.S. and Canada will come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor are pounding the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards to the U.S. East Coast today. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 6 - 11 foot waves on Saturday night, and 9 - 13 foot waves on Sunday.

Julia
Strong upper level winds from big brother Igor are creating a high 20 - 30 knots of shear over Hurricane Julia this morning, and the hurricane is destined to weaken to a tropical storm soon. The high shear has eroded away the northwestern portion of Julia's heavy thunderstorms, and should be strong enough to destroy Julia by early next week. Julia is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Unusually quiet in the Pacific
The unusually quiet Western Pacific typhoon season has its 11th named storm of the season, Typhoon Fanapi. Fanapi, a Category 1 storm, is located 400 miles east of Taiwan, and is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm before making landfall on the island Sunday. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific should be up to seventeen named storms by now. It has also been unusually quiet in the Eastern Pacific. On average, that ocean basin should have had 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes by now. This season, we've had about half the normal activity--just 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 4 - 5 days from now. The GFS and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of a Caribbean development late next week.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. HCW
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1237 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR RICARDO...OR NEAR KINGSVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL KLEBERG COUNTY...
RURAL WESTERN KLEBERG COUNTY...
Quoting Jax82:
Which one of these remaining names do you think will impact the US? (just for fun people)

Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter


I gotta go with Matthew and Richard.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Oh, I'd believe that the CMC would show Karl's remnant low catching the solar wind and generating a new storm on Mars...but then again, it is the CMC you're talking about. :-)

Continuously Manufacturing Cyclones
Constantly Missing Cyclones
Computer-Made Confusion


Point taken lmao
Quoting Jax82:


I think Shary will be scary.


Tomas could be a spicy and gassy one.
Quoting FLdewey:

That would be FOX news by any chance would it?

it is ALL news... it's a societal slip imo. objective reporting has been done away with, and it's replacement with entertainment has made an enormous impact on so many facets of sociology. i prefer not to point in political directions here, because that's like a GW debate. from your local networks to the fox/cnn thing... facts are malleable and drama rules all. seem familiar???
Quoting Titoxd:


It's practically impossible. Karl would need to survive the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Sierra Madre Occidental in order to reach the Pacific. Also, it seems that it will cross the Eje Volcánico Transversal lengthwise, so there is a greater chance of all of us hitting the lottery in the next drawing than Karl surviving.


That's more or less what I was thinking, I was surprised to see all the model tracks in Levi's post extending out into the Pac. tnx.
Are you guys implying we will have a Florida Strike in 2 weeks?? do I need a roofers License??
Quoting btwntx08:
WOW 6-7 inches here



And, Dr. Masters said yesterday that Karl would not be big enough to bring rain as far north as Brownsville.

Just goes to show you, even the EXPERTS can be fooled by weather.
510. HCW
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'd put the chances of Karl crossing over at extraordinarily low. Those mountains that he has to cross are some of the tallest in North America and by far the tallest that an Atlantic Hurricane would have to encounter.


I agree that Karl will likely be destroyed trying to cross the interior mountains of Mexico. However, if you look at the GFS and follow it's progression over the next 6-7 days, it shows a low-pressure system emerging off the Mexican Pacific coast coinciding with the re-emergence of Karl. The GFS model seems to be pretty indicative of ghost-of-Karl at least merging with other energy and re-forming into a tropical storm or hurricane in the Pacific.

Also, please be aware that the GFS has been insistent over the past 5-days that an East Carribean tropical storm will develop about Friday of next week. It's projections are consistent about the storm becoming a hurricane that moves through the straight below Cuba and into the Northern Gulf between Sept. 28-30th. What strength & where it makes landfall is anyone's guess... but the GFS has clearly indicated a strong storm will form and where it will head. All interests in the Northern Gulf should pay attention to that, because the model's long range has been pretty accurate so far.
Some rotation is getting going south of the CV islands. This is the area the models want to develop.

Quoting Jax82:
Which one of these remaining names do you think will impact the US? (just for fun people)

Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter


Matthew
Just sitting here at the forecast desk (my kitchen table) analyzing the blog steering currents and realize that this is way overdue. It happened a few years ago but he came back as I'm sure he will again when he starts jonesing for an ego fix. Return fire! ---
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I gotta go with Matthew and Richard.


Some strange names. Shary? Virginie? I don't know anyone with the name Shary or Virginie. What happened to Sherry and Virginia? Believe it or not I do know an Igor...LOL.
517. HCW
Tornado warning in Texas

Quoting Drakoen:
Some rotation is getting going south of the CV islands. This is the area the models want to develop.



Drakoen, the early indications are that that area would be another Bermuda or ocean track?
Quoting StormJunkie:


Admin is not cleaning the blog. This is a result of an email that a blogger with his ... in a wad sent requesting that people report posts. And yes, the report post function, if done X number of times WILL lead to t he Community Standards violation.

I get that you are upset by all of the PR, as many of us are. The folks that have been around for the four year reign, know that Sai is not what he seems. He has showed that to a large extent over the past few days.

As for "why" I keep posting in relation to this. It is not going away on it's own for one. Secondly, when you send out an email to members of this community and ask them to report anything you don't like...Well it is just a childish, ego pumping, way of not being able to handle open communication and discussion. I won't WUmail any of you and ask t hat you report anything. What I have to say; for better or worse, I'll do it where everyone can see it.


Quoting FLdewey:

Well said... but we'll have to keep quoting each other to get it to stay around.


Quoting yonzabam:


It doesn't look that way to me. There has been a concerted and sustained troll attack on this board, only some of which was directed at StormW.

Some have decided they're not going to take it any more. Unfortunately, there might be some 'friendly fire' damage, but that's reality.


Trolls will always be a part of this community. Actually, they are part of what makes it what it is...just like the comedians, the weather gurus, the hobbyists. This is completely different. This is a hijacking of the blog by a "clique". It is censorship in it's ugliest form. Yeah, there are always going to be some comical, off the wall, and even personal posts in this forum. Again, it is what makes it what it is. To arbitrarily try to censor anything "you" don't like does an injustice to everyone here, and especially what Dr M and the weatherunderground has given us.

On top of that, if someone can't handle people disagreeing with them, debating them, or even throwing out a verbal punch every now and then...Then they should be posting in a blog which does not allow comments. The problem is that the type of person that can not handle that "realness", many times, has a tendency to thrive on the comments.
Quoting RecordSeason:
490:

oh yeah, because CNN is just SOOOOOOO reliable...
lol. Yeah, exactly. Good post here...thank you
Quoting poknsnok:
Are you guys implying we will have a Florida Strike in 2 weeks?? do I need a roofers License??


Yeah...you can get it online for 19.95 comes with free ordained ministership in the denomination of your choice
Quoting blakels:
Just sitting here at the forecast desk (my kitchen table) analyzing the blog steering currents and realize that this is way overdue. It happened a few years ago but he came back as I'm sure he will again when he starts jonesing for an ego fix. Return fire! ---


Here comes the execution.
Quoting Minnemike:
i find the downhill nature of this blog indicative of the state of social dysfunction plaguing our society. it is directly proportional to our media and entertainment based institutions... we call em' trolls here, but these folks really just mirror the informative (or lack thereof) discourse milling about this country, ever bent toward drama and sensation. just look at the news... all news outlets. there's my soapbox rant, and though I've got soooo much more to say about what has gone on here in the last month at least, i'm backing off now.


Amen. Me thinks there is nothing comparable in history
Quoting breald:


Some strange names. Shary? Virginie? I don't know anyone with the name Shary or Virginie. What happened to Sherry and Virginia? Believe it or not I do know an Igor...LOL.


I just wish Mike and I were on the same year's list.
Nor have I, and my e-mail addy was accessible.

Seems to me that a very few bloggers are having a problem with the flags. Think about that guys. Is there a good reason? I never flag a good post, I give many more plus signs.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Drakoen, the early indications are that that area would be another Bermuda or ocean track?


Yup
529. Prgal
Geez, can we stop the drama? Move on.
516. I believe the names and spelling will become more odd with time as more 'typical' names are retired.
Quoting ConchHondros:


Yeah...you can get it online for 19.95 comes with free ordained ministership in the denomination of your choice


Sounds like the guys that Allstate wanted me to hire after Katrina...You are NOT in good hands with them.
To anyone defending the censorship going on.....if there were posters that you didn't like..that's what the ignore function is for.
At the moment the blog is worthless to me. I find it too aggravating. You have to read it from the last comment up lest something was said that offended the sai. But this too shall pass.
.
.
For all of us, like or dislike the censorship...this is what it's like to be on a blog in Communist China. If the sai there doesn't like you, he directs his forces to block you.
.
Oh, and btw, China has gotten very lucky so far with the quiet EPAC tropical season.
Man I wish this slow hurricane season would pickup....What a show mother nature is putting on for us this week.
Quoting breald:


Some strange names. Shary? Virginie? I don't know anyone with the name Shary or Virginie. What happened to Sherry and Virginia? Believe it or not I do know an Igor...LOL.
lol. Agreed. I thought Igor was kinda strange...but not as much as those.
Once again, the GFS is seeing the buildup of heat in about a week or so in the Caribbean that eventually culminates into a hurricane that moves into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the month.

12z GFS Day 14:

Quoting JupiterFL:
Man I wish this slow hurricane season would pickup....What a show mother nature is putting on for us this week.


Maybe someday...maybe... :-P
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Karl made landfall as a 115 mph system. First major hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast (yes, Mexico counts as the Gulf coast) since Hurricane Wilma.


Gustav, then Ike?
538. amd
Quoting StormJunkie:






Trolls will always be a part of this community. Actually, they are part of what makes it what it is...just like the comedians, the weather gurus, the hobbyists. This is completely different. This is a hijacking of the blog by a "clique". It is censorship in it's ugliest form. Yeah, there are always going to be some comical, off the wall, and even personal posts in this forum. Again, it is what makes it what it is. To arbitrarily try to censor anything "you" don't like does an injustice to everyone here, and especially what Dr M and the weatherunderground has given us.

On top of that, if someone can't handle people disagreeing with them, debating them, or even throwing out a verbal punch every now and then...Then they should be posting in a blog which does not allow comments. The problem is that the type of person that can not handle that "realness", many times, has a tendency to thrive on the comments.


+1. Getting rid of those who thrive on drama, and their sycophants will do some wonders for this blog.

This is part of the reason why for the most part I post at nights (other than grad school commitments). There is much less drama at night on WU then during the day.
539. JRRP
Quoting breald:


JRRP what does this map mean?

wind speed and wind direction
It really looks like the northern half of Karl broke off and is pounding Texas...pretty crazy sight.

As for the drama, until someone gets serious about moderating I doubt it will get better. ~10 IP bans would do wonders I imagine....
but what about this area ? it has a very nice rotation and is around 37 west.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yup



I thought so....just been that kind of year.
Quoting blakels:
Just sitting here at the forecast desk (my kitchen table) analyzing the blog steering currents and realize that this is way overdue. It happened a few years ago but he came back as I'm sure he will again when he starts jonesing for an ego fix. Return fire! ---


Wow, this drama has even brought out a person from 2005 with, 1 count them, 1 post.:) I'm giving you a
Quoting ConchHondros:


Yeah...you can get it online for 19.95 comes with free ordained ministership in the denomination of your choice


I got me a hammer and some shingles!!!
Quoting Levi32:
Once again, the GFS is seeing the buildup of heat in about a week or so in the Caribbean that eventually culminates into a hurricane that moves into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the month.

12z GFS Day 14:



The size of that storm in crazy looking at the ROCI
Quoting swlaaggie:


Gustav, then Ike?

Although they had large impacts, they did not meet the SSHS requirements to be classified as a major hurricane, which is dictated solely by windspeed.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
What about this area ?
@433 S of Igor and Julia


I believe that area is anti-cyclonic and the visible stuff is the end of Igor's incredibly long East side straight spiral (15N-30N) and Igor's outflow.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Although they had large impacts, they did not meet the SSHS requirements to be classified as a major hurricane, which is dictated solely by windspeed.


Gotcha, thanks
Quoting MrMixon:


+1

Creepy antagonism ain't the same as humor.

Does Mexico City have a radar? If someone already posted the link I probably missed it among all the nonsense drama posts...


Mexico City radar
Karl's winds down to 110mph according to NHC 1pm advisory.
My one and only post on this subject: what has happened over the past week on the blog was, in my opinion, mean spirited. Saying something is a "joke" is one of the easiest ways to deny you are responsible for the words you say.

If you don't like what someone else says, ignore them, don't bait them. If you do, both parties are guilty. A blog by definition is a group of people, not an individual, so there has to be some community standards. Many on here were so upset by the behavior that the result was the melt down.

Yesterday and today has been much better, easier read to find out what is going on.

With three (sort of) active storms, its nice to be able to see the information.
Quoting swlaaggie:


Gustav, then Ike?


Both were Cat 2's at landfall.
558. IKE
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS IGOR SLIGHTLY WEAKER...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 17
Location: 23.4°N 60.7°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb

.................................................
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Karl's winds down to 110mph according to NHC 1pm advisory.


I bet he weakens and unwinds in a hurry.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Karl's winds down to 110mph according to NHC 1pm advisory.


At this point the winds shouldn't be too much of a problem but the rain definetly will be.
560. txjac
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Karl's winds down to 110mph according to NHC 1pm advisory.


Thank goodness for that. I received a text message from a co-worker in Veracruz and she mentioned that the winds were horrid ...worried as I havent heard back from her since then

Igor moved 0.6W and only 0.3N in the past 3 hours or so...
Quoting watchinwxnwpb:

Quite frankly, i'm suprised Doc let him still post here after abusing the blogs email system for aforementioned "not weather related" reasons....just saying...keep using your plus signs people, it's bound to dirupt all the flagging!!
Good post WPB...

It's only gonna last a little while. This is not admins first rodeo with selfish, childish bloggers. But he is the only "featured blogger" to do this.In hindsight, Doc should have not let him back after his last stunt.
564. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 24 hours....

Quoting zoomiami:
My one and only post on this subject: what has happened over the past week on the blog was, in my opinion, mean spirited. Saying something is a "joke" is one of the easiest ways to deny you are responsible for the words you say.

If you don't like what someone else says, ignore them, don't bait them. If you do, both parties are guilty. A blog by definition is a group of people, not an individual, so there has to be some community standards. Many on here so behavior they didn't like, and the result was the melt down.

Yesterday and today has been much better, easier read to find out what is going on.

With three (sort of) active storms, its nice to be able to see the information.


I totally agree Miami.
Quoting LeMoyne:

I believe that area is anti-cyclonic and the visible stuff is the end of Igor's incredibly long East side straight spiral (15N-30N) and Igor's outflow.


:-S
mudslides and flash floods will be the death of many, I fear.
Quoting JupiterFL:


At this point the winds shouldn't be too much of a problem but the rain definetly will be.


Are you kidding me! Go stand outside in 110 mph winds in tell me it's not much of a problem.
Quoting tkeith:
Good post WPB...

It's only gonna last a little while. This is not admins first rodeo with selfish, childish bloggers. But he is the only "featured blogger" to do this.In hindsight, Doc should have not let him back after his last stunt.


True, but it was the kind thing to do to give him that second chance and Dr M certainly fits that category.

So many just do not know the history of it all.
Quoting txjac:


Thank goodness for that. I received a text message from a co-worker in Veracruz and she mentioned that the winds were horrid ...worried as I havent heard back from her since then

Yikes. Hopefully she's alright. Kinda hoping I would have saw maximum sustained winds lower, but he did pack quite a punch with a bullseye right on Veracruz.
Quoting MrMixon:


+1

Creepy antagonism ain't the same as humor.

Does Mexico City have a radar? If someone already posted the link I probably missed it among all the nonsense drama posts...


Link

This is a link the the Mexican Wx Svc....They have the radar sites listed .... hit "RADARES"....Now, this being said, I am having trouble getting to the site....guessing it is overloaded at present.
576. JRRP
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
but what about this area ? it has a very nice rotation and is around 37 west.

yes nice rotation
Link
Quoting reedzonemyhero:


Are you kidding me! Go stand outside in 110 mph winds in tell me it's not much of a problem.


I don't know about you but I tend to go inside when the wind gets to 110. Sure some structures will be damaged but what I am saying is that the rain will be what kills not the wind.
578. IKE
Hour obs from the Vera Cruz,MX. airport...

Quoting JupiterFL:


I totally agree Miami.


see the edited version - got the words in the right order--lol
In this image, you can see how the mountainous terrain surrounds the western side of the BoC.

Quoting dmdhdms:


Link

This is a link the the Mexican Wx Svc....They have the radar sites listed .... hit "RADARES"....Now, this being said, I am having trouble getting to the site....guessing it is overloaded at present.


Having trouble getting to just about any news/weather site in Mexico from that region right now.
The wave south of the CV Islands is the one the models want to develop into "Lisa" and keep out to sea

The area seen in the long range GFS is the area in front of the aforementioned wave and is around 35W
583. HCW
GFS@14 days

Quoting fire16:
mudslides and flash floods will be the death of many, I fear.


I think the mountainous region where Karl is coming ashore has a population of 400,000 plus. I fear you may be right.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Mexico City radar


Awesome! Thanks for the link, Dan. (and yeah, dmdhdms, it worked for me once, but when I refreshed it was dead... the servers are probably getting hit a little hard right now. Since I'm safe in Colorado and was only looking to satisfy my curiosity, I'll give their servers a rest and let the folks who live in the area have the bandwidth...)
586. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
In this image, you can see how the mountainous terrain surrounds the western side of the BoC.



Karl is small....he'll get ripped up going over those mountains but he will ring out a lot of moisture.
.......................................

48 hour ECMWF...

Quoting IKE:Looks like Igor is moving WNW...now near 23.2N and 60.2W.
Quoting GeauxGirl:


What is causing that westward jog?

I think Igor is trying to grow north instead of go north...
Quoting IKE:


Karl is small....he'll get ripped up going over those mountains but he will ring out a lot of moisture.
Yep he will
Quoting LeMoyne:

I think Igor is trying to grow nore
th instead of go north...


He is pretty close to where the NHC says he should be at this time.
The Mexican National Water Commission has centered Karl at 19.2 N, 96.4 W with the eye 25 km due west of the City of Veracruz.

Veracruz Radar:



Mexico City Radar:



Link
Quoting breald:


I think the mountainous region where Karl is coming ashore has a population of 400,000 plus. I fear you may be right.


Exactly. Its easy to see how the mountains basically surround the area of Veracruz. Water will be coming down from all areas around the city.
its veracruz not vera cruz sorry
586. You know, I wonder how many megatons of water is contained in a storm the size of Karl. It's got to be a lot even though the storm is relatively small.
Quoting dmdhdms:


Link

This is a link the the Mexican Wx Svc....They have the radar sites listed .... hit "RADARES"....Now, this being said, I am having trouble getting to the site....guessing it is overloaded at present.


Me too, I've just posted the links and images to both Mexico City's and Veracruz's Radars. Many people are visiting the site as of now to observe Karl's path.
Quoting FLdewey:

But our shenanigans are cheeky and fun

And their shenanigans are cruel and tragic


I moved to FL from the NW because I love storms and tropical weather. I found this blog and have stayed because I found a good source of information with the nice incorporation of the funny. I wouldn't be here if it was only comments about models showing things weeks out everyday. I appreciate Dewey and DJ for adding the occasional shake-up... +++ to you guys!

I am looking for a live feed from Bermuda, I saw it posted earlier, but I think it got removed...please repost? TIA
Quoting drj10526:


So you are aditting to going to his personal site, using a fake name and mocking him, just so you could come back to this blog and show us how cool you are?

I think that says alot about what the problems on here is. A bunch of bloggers who think they are just that much better than everyone else.

WOW...i would be embarrassed to admit i had done that. Kinda stalker like...



I too go to Storm's new blog, StormJunkie. I have NEVER been asked by ANYONE to atack anyone else. I too appreciate humor and have laughed at many comments left on this blog. That is not the point. I live on the upper gulf coast. I have been here through Alicia, Allyson, Rita ( I lost EVERYTHING, material wise ) and Ike. I visit Dr. Jeff Master's blog because I want to KNOW what is is happening and what is coming down the road. I do not visit this blog for humor. I visit this blog for KNOWLEDGE. Should you or any of the other "class clowns" open an act at Comedy Central, I will pay to come see your antics. That is NOT why I come here. I love your humor, but that is NOT why I come here. I want knowledge that can possibly save my family and my possessions.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
The wave south of the CV Islands is the one the models want to develop into "Lisa" and keep out to sea

The area seen in the long range GFS is the area in front of the aforementioned wave and is around 35W


As usual.
604. IKE
ECMWF @ 72 hours....Link
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Karl's winds down to 110mph according to NHC 1pm advisory.


I have witnessed sustained 110 MPH winds, and it ain't no picnic. Scary stuff for those folks in Mexico.
Quoting Dunkman:
It really looks like the northern half of Karl broke off and is pounding Texas...pretty crazy sight.

As for the drama, until someone gets serious about moderating I doubt it will get better. ~10 IP bans would do wonders I imagine....
That's how our weather was in the Keys yesterday. Just rain bands.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Having trouble getting to just about any news/weather site in Mexico from that region right now.


You can observe live-TV reports of the storm at this link. From Milenio News, although its in Spanish you can get an idea with the images.

Link
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
but what about this area ? it has a very nice rotation and is around 37 west.


@ 541
Sorry about earlier wrong answer...
I thought u meant the area the arrow was pointing to which is Igor's tail.
Area in the circle ~40W10N is getting spun up a bit by I & J ... yup yup
Quoting JupiterFL:


I don't know about you but I tend to go inside when the wind gets to 110. Sure some structures will be damaged but what I am saying is that the rain will be what kills not the wind.


ha
616. IKE
96 hours ECMWF...Link
617. Prgal
Quoting JRRP:
Link


Hola JRRP! El tren sigue!
Quoting KeysieLife:


I am looking for a live feed from Bermuda, I saw it posted earlier, but I think it got removed...please repost? TIA

I believe you are asking for this?
619. JRRP
see you at night
Link
620. Jax82
Hmmm, does anyone ever go back and look at the archive from the computer models to see if they were indeed correct. I remember the ECWMF model bombed Igor out at like 905mb, though he didnt get there he did get down to 925mb. Just curious.
621. JRRP
Quoting Prgal:


Hola JRRP! El tren sigue!

asi es jejeje
Quoting JRRP:
see you at night
Link


We need to follow this one.
Quoting JupiterFL:


I don't know about you but I tend to go inside when the wind gets to 110. Sure some structures will be damaged but what I am saying is that the rain will be what kills not the wind.


To quote one of my favorite comedians, Ron White: "It's not how the wind blows, it's what the wind blows..."
626. IKE
Five day ECMWF....

LMAO @ 625!
ECMWF 12z is just finishing. Through 96 hours, after a pretty good initialization of Igor, it then drops the central pressure rapidly to 914-915 mb, clearly category 5 intensity, and quite far north. This seems unrealistic for sure. For the first time, I think can say that a global model is biased high for TC intensity.
hopefully the spin out around 45w follows igor to the fishes
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:


You can observe live-TV reports of the storm at this link. From Milenio News, although its in Spanish you can get an idea with the images.

Link


Thanks. But, uhhh, somehow I never managed to see the map behind the weather girl. :)
631. Prgal
I am off for today but wanted to say something. Have you thought about the possibility that the hundreds of people that lurk and dont post are the ones flagging? Or the adminis? Why are you talking about "followers"? There are no sides here. There is no competition. We are just hundreds of people interested in what's happening in the tropics...ALL OF US. That's all. I come here for information and to learn about what I consider a hobby.

Hope you get the point. Have a blessed day.
Quoting IKE:
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS IGOR SLIGHTLY WEAKER...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 17
Location: 23.4°N 60.7°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb

.................................................

I bet he weakens and unwinds in a hurry.
I'm with ya
Quoting srada:


Guys..do you really think he asked all 210 of his "followers" (I remember because he kept repeating it in updates) to flag posts..there were a select few that were call up to duty..it only takes 10 flaggs and you are removed..



So where did you hear that 10 "flags" get you removed? Not necessarily true...
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:


You can observe live-TV reports of the storm at this link. From Milenio News, although its in Spanish you can get an idea with the images.

Link


TWC should hire that weatherwoman....
Quoting JupiterFL:


At this point the winds shouldn't be too much of a problem but the rain definetly will be.
Yep. The rain will be torrential!
Quoting RyanFSU:
ECMWF 12z is just finishing. Through 96 hours, after a pretty good initialization of Igor, it then drops the central pressure rapidly to 914-915 mb, clearly category 5 intensity, and quite far north. This seems unrealistic for sure. For the first time, I think can say that a global model is biased high for TC intensity.

I was thinking something similar the other day.
639. IKE
Veracruz Airport, MX (Airport)
Updated: 13 sec ago
Heavy Rain Showers
72 °F
Heavy Showers Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 23 mph
Pressure: 29.60 in (Rising)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 105 ft
Quoting PcolaDan:


Thanks. But, uhhh, somehow I never managed to see the map behind the weather girl. :)


There was a map behind her? Wow...
Quoting GeauxGirl:


I have witnessed sustained 110 MPH winds, and it ain't no picnic. Scary stuff for those folks in Mexico.
That's good. It's always seems to be the higher gusts that are the killer & cause of much of the property/tree damage.
642. IKE
Quoting BenInHouTX:

I believe you are asking for this?

Perfect, thank you!
Quoting Floodman:


There was a map behind her? Wow...


How are logistics going Flood? Getting stuff out for both areas?
Quoting IKE:
96 hours ECMWF...Link


That ECMWF better not pan out intensity-wise...that would be a disaster.

The schism in this blog is more volatile than the Protestant reformation.
Quoting GeauxGirl:


To quote one of my favorite comedians, Ron White: "It's not how the wind blows, it's what the wind blows..."
Good one. And true
650. IKE
144 hour ECMWF...Link
I don't know if any of you storm geeks have mentioned this but Racer's Storm in 1837 was around this powerful and followed a very similar tract across the Bay of Campeche.
653. srada
Quoting Floodman:


So where did you hear that 10 "flags" get you removed? Not necessarily true...


Yesterday on the blog..
Link

Igor at his finest a few days ago.
Is Trinidad feeling the effect of feeder band inflow in Igor ~2000 km to it's north? Wow
ECMWF hasn't done too well this season. Since the upgrade GFS has been better sniffing out storms imo.
Quoting IKE:
144 hour ECMWF...Link



Lokks like a bowling alley. Who gets to be the skittle?
662. IKE
One week from today on the ECMWF...Link
Love live DEWEY!

His humor is light and based on the weather. Some on this thing talk about coming here for "serious concerns." Well, you know, this blog is also a social website discussing the weather. There are many approaches to discussing the weather. Dewey adds to the blog.

Quoting IKE:
144 hour ECMWF...Link
The GEM has an intense looking vortex moving from the Western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week. It looks convincing enough.Link
666. Jax82
Quoting IKE:
One week from today on the ECMWF...Link


And what does the NAO forecast and MJO forecast look like?
Quoting NASABrat:
I don't know if any of you storm geeks have mentioned this but Racer's Storm in 1837 was around this powerful and followed a very similar tract across the Bay of Campeche.
I read that one..Wild path..
another Mexican TV station /www.ustream.tv/channel/telever
12z Euro shows the strongest vorticity of any Euro run yet

On the Wundermap, Veracruz airport is reading 44.6 inches and counting. Wonder if something is off. Welcome to Veracruz pontoon landing strip!
Quoting srada:


Yesterday on the blog..


Was it DrM or from the admin ID?
Quoting SuperYooper:
On the Wundermap, Veracruz airport is reading 44.6 inches and counting. Wonder if something is off. Welcome to Veracruz pontoon landing strip!


44.6inches way wuttttt? Holy mother of......are you sure of that....those are not milimeters?
test
674. IKE
Quoting Jax82:


And what does the NAO forecast and MJO forecast look like?


Here's an MJO chart...posted today....



Quoting NASABrat:
I don't know if any of you storm geeks have mentioned this but Racer's Storm in 1837 was around this powerful and followed a very similar tract across the Bay of Campeche.

Interesting little tid-bit there.
I can not read that sorry Ike. is this good or bad for US landfalls?
677. srada
Quoting Prgal:
I am off for today but wanted to say something. Have you thought about the possibility that the hundreds of people that lurk and dont post are the ones flagging? Or the adminis? Why are you talking about "followers"? There are no sides here. There is no competition. We are just hundreds of people interested in what's happening in the tropics...ALL OF US. That's all. I come here for information and to learn about what I consider a hobby.

Hope you get the point. Have a blessed day.


I agree we are interested in the tropics and come here for information but as I stated yesterday I have a problem with a coalition of people deciding what posts should be removed and what should stay..I agree, it has gotten trollish and I even took up the cause the other day but there are people called ADMIN that work for WU and they should be moderating not bloggers..ADMIN gave us the ignore feature which to this day I dont have a single person because I know how to scroll through comments..I even emphasized the word IF in regards to this being led by StormW..If this isnt so and as many times as he continues to post on here and comment during the day and night, he should say so and that will end it for me..We all are Adults, arent we?
Quoting kshipre1:
I can not read that sorry Ike. is this good or bad for US landfalls?


Dark green in the GOM/Caribbean basin. That would be bad.
Jeff,

which storm or potential storm is this for?
I discovered this little bit of awesomeness---a very good hurricane history site.


The year 1837 section has a lot about the Racer's storm.

682. IKE
Quoting kshipre1:
I can not read that sorry Ike. is this good or bad for US landfalls?


Shows an upward MJO in the ATL, good for development.

Not sure on NAO.

8 day ECMWF....




Day 9....

uh oh
Quoting tomcat007:
Link

Igor at his finest a few days ago.


Thank you! I never need to learn how to make gifs cause someone else always does it for me :)
685. Jax82
Quoting IKE:


Here's an MJO chart...posted today....





Yikes, no wonder the models are pointing at development there! (PS: I hate being post#666)
686. DVG
As usual...thankyou Levi.

Curious, what part of Alaska?

BTW, I was in Rochester NY for the blizzard of 1966. I know a lot of people think 1993 was bad, but 1966 lasted a week what with lake enhanced snow and a noreaster pumping all the way from the atlantic.

The snow drifts were higher than the snow plows right in town. School ws out for over a week. ( A certain junior high student had no problem with that at all. )

Anyway, the reason I ask is I love to watch weather cams.
Good afternoon to all, I'm back.
Quoting IKE:


Shows an upward MJO in the ATL, good for development.

Not sure on NAO.


NAO expected to be in the negative range around that time frame...

689. 7544
igor getting stonger his eye is back now and still wants to head west ?
Another trashy ECM run, it would seem.
Quoting SuperYooper:
On the Wundermap, Veracruz airport is reading 44.6 inches and counting. Wonder if something is off. Welcome to Veracruz pontoon landing strip!
Gosh, I would sure hope not! Have a feeling they misplaced the decimal point a character to the right. It's probably 4.46. Let's hope so anyway!
Quoting IKE:


Here's an MJO chart...posted today....





Aye yi yi! Thats not good :(
12z Euro on board for NW Caribbean development..not surprising given all the ensemble support.
Quoting bird72:


44.6inches way wuttttt? Holy mother of......are you sure of that....those are not milimeters?


From the map itself:
Veracruz Airport
Temperature: 72 °F
Dew Point: 72 °F
Humidity: 100%
Wind: SSE at 12mph
Pressure: 29.60in
Precipitation: -in
Daily Precip.: 44.60in
MMVR
lat: 19.15
lon: -96.18
Elevation: 105 ft


Obviously a mistake/broken machine. Machines can't be trolls, can they?
696. Bonz
From someone who likes both sides, minus the behaviors.

Problem is, many of us are not here for middle-school hijinks. And all too often "humor" is an Internet code word for "attack."

What's going on here are two cliques fighting. One uses "humor," the other gets angry. Both are inappropriate.

It's OK to disagree and it's healthy and sometimes one side would get angry at disagreement. That side needs to work on not being thin-skinned. The other side needs to drop the passive-aggressive "humor" and be honest, it's not humor, but attack.

I'm a woman and straightfoward. If I attack, I don't cloak it. But I'm not here for that. I'm here, like most of us, for important information and I resent wading through pages of garbage and that's why I've started hanging over at Storm2K, which is moderated.

If I want junior high antics or sulking, I'll head back into the classroom.

[quote]
Just so everyone knows... Dewey and I agreed long ago to stick with 5th-grade humor, and we have done just that.[/quote]
Quoting IKE:


Here's an MJO chart...posted today....





Whoa, whoa whoa wait a second here. This past 1/2 month of hyperactivity was in a DOWNWARD phase and now until the end of September is going to be upward? I shutter to think of what could happen.
Quoting dmdhdms:


TWC should hire that weatherwoman....


LOL!!!!!

That's the brightside of the weather reports on Mexico, most of them are given by the women.
clearly the reason for Atlantic activity is due to man-made global warming.

and the reason for Pacific lack of activity is also due to man-made global warming.
700. IKE
10 day ECMWF....

#655 -thanks TAZ - just the map I was hoping to find while I have a few seconds for a fast scan through here...... didn't know why there was rain in Galveston...didn't realize Karl's fingers had that much reach.

Prayer UP for all affected by KARL in MX
Quoting IKE:


Here's an MJO chart...posted today....





me no likey the 3rd and 4th panels... Lending more credence to the potential GOM nastiness down the road.
Quoting IKE:
10 day ECMWF....



It's a start, thank God. Well, with the ECM jumping onto the band wagon now, we'll def. have something to track down here, come late next week. Finally, and hopefully it'll make US landfall.
HurricaneKarl's heading had turned westward to (0.3degrees west of) West SouthWest
from its previous heading of (9.9degrees west of) SouthWest
H.Karl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~11.7mph(~18.8km/h)

16Sep 06pmGMT - - 19.7n93.3w - - - 75mph - - 983mb - - NHC.Adv.#9A
16Sep 09pmGMT - - 19.6n93.7w - - - 80mph - - 977mb - - #10
17Sep 12amGMT - - 19.7n94.1w - - - 80mph - - 971mb - - #10A
17Sep 03amGMT - - 19.7n94.5w - - 100mph - - 968mb - - #11
17Sep 06amGMT - - 19.7n94.8w - - 105mph - - 967mb - - #11A
17Sep 09amGMT - - 19.7n95.3w - - 110mph - - 961mb - - #12
17Sep 12pmGMT - - 19.6n95.6w - - 120mph - - 956mb - - #12A
17Sep 03pmGMT - - 19.4n95.9w - - 120mph - - 967mb - - #13
H.Carl makes a 115mph(~185km/h)landfall near 19.268n96.23w
17Sep 06pmGMT - - 19.2n96.4w - - 110mph - - 979mb - - #13A

Copy &paste 19.7n93.3w, 19.6n93.7w, 19.7n94.1w, 19.7n94.5w, 19.7n94.8w-19.7n95.3w, 19.7n95.3w-19.6n95.6w, 19.6n95.6w-19.4n95.9w, 19.4n95.9w-19.2n96.4w, ver, cza, 19.268n96.23w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.

* The dot closest to VER(acruzInternationalAirport) is where the H.Karl's center made landfall. Copy&paste 19.268n96.23w into GoogleMaps to see how close it came to a landfall within the city proper.
Quoting IKE:


Here's an MJO chart...posted today....





That is when BOOM goes the Caribbean. It will start to get real interesting later next week as a storm potentially blows up and steers into the Gulf.
Quoting surfmom:
#655 -thanks TAZ - just the map I was hoping to find while I have a few seconds for a fast scan through here...... didn't know why there was rain in Galveston...didn't realize Karl's fingers had that much reach.

Prayer UP for all affected by KARL in MX


+1
That area around 15N 37W looks to be spinning.
709. IKE
Here's the complete ECMWF run...Link

No lower 48 hits through Sept. 27th.
Quoting cybergrump:
That area around 15N 37W looks to be spinning.


Sure does. We were looking at that this morning. This may be the area that the models are seeing develop in a week or so.
You can see the first 15 minutes of every hour, reports of Karl in Veracruz.

Link
Quoting JupiterFL:


Sure does. We were looking at that this morning. This may be the area that the models are seeing develop in a week or so.

Also has some vorticity.
Hi everyone,

I have done a little lurking the past couple of days with very little time to actually post a comment. That being said, I've noticed that quite a bit of misinformation gets posted in here and is automatically accepted as factual information.

First, H Igor is not the 3rd largest H ever observed in the atlantic as I saw posted recently. I haven't done much research into this myself, but I know of two relatively recent H's that were just as large and even larger than Igor at this point. They are H Floyd of 1999 (GF winds out to 290 nm) and H Isabel of 2003 (GF out to 315 nm), respectively. I am confident there are others and these two weren't listed as tied or ahead of Igor on the list I saw posted.

Secondly, H Igor has been steadily following the NHC track (keep in mind hurricanes don't move in a straight line) pretty consistently for the past 4-5 days and a path passing very close to Bermuda has been expected all along. This idea of H Igor "pumping the ridge" and going much farther W is not accurate. There is too much desire for the historical and the unexpected that it seems to cloud the judgement of some as to what is actually taking place.
steve lockholer a noted hurricane chaser departed this am for bermuda.hope he will share timely updates with our blog however his video of the storm should be fascinating.
Quoting Bonz:
From someone who likes both sides, minus the behaviors.

Problem is, many of us are not here for middle-school hijinks. And all too often "humor" is an Internet code word for "attack."

What's going on here are two cliques fighting. One uses "humor," the other gets angry. Both are inappropriate.

It's OK to disagree and it's healthy and sometimes one side would get angry at disagreement. That side needs to work on not being thin-skinned. The other side needs to drop the passive-aggressive "humor" and be honest, it's not humor, but attack.

I'm a woman and straightfoward. If I attack, I don't cloak it. But I'm not here for that. I'm here, like most of us, for important information and I resent wading through pages of garbage and that's why I've started hanging over at Storm2K, which is moderated.

If I want junior high antics or sulking, I'll head back into the classroom.
<>BR



Excellent post
Quoting SuperYooper:


From the map itself:
Veracruz Airport
Temperature: 72 °F
Dew Point: 72 °F
Humidity: 100%
Wind: SSE at 12mph
Pressure: 29.60in
Precipitation: -in
Daily Precip.: 44.60in
MMVR
lat: 19.15
lon: -96.18
Elevation: 105 ft


Obviously a mistake/broken machine. Machines can't be trolls, can they?


Needs to be an error, if is not an error then the airport is part of the gulf sea now.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON FANAPI (T1011)
3:00 AM JST September 18 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Fanapi (955 hPa) located at 23.3N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.8N 123.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 23.8N 118.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 24.2N 114.1E - Tropical Depression
699:

Hadn't you heard? The top 18 cold winter and the record level snowfalls of the past few years was ALSO caused by man-made global warming.


track map from the Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau
ncforecaster--I agree with you about the nhc models being on track, but there were big shifts in the original global models. I guess that was to be expected, 5-7 days is a more reasonable expectation than something 2 weeks out.
Has anyone noticed that Julia is beginning to be "sucked" in by Igor? They are just over 900 miles apart (eye to eye)! You can see the elongation take place on satellite. It is really interesting to see! Also I noticed that Igor seems to want to slip west a bit now.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


track map from the Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau


The only thing I understand its that the positions are fixed for the 18th and 19th at 2:00 am maybe local time.
Dr Master Storm W is gone could you tell us why models are all over the place wit Karl
Quoting Jeff9641:
Guys look at 12N 37W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


That's interesting... haven't seen anyone mention that one... wonder what that's all about... sure looks like at the very least it's got some rotation.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Guys look at 12N 37W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


Definitely a spin going on there.
Quoting cybergrump:
That area around 15N 37W looks to be spinning.
It is spinning a bit on Cent Atl visual and dvorak - maybe out flow to north is other storms either side but setting up a pattern there
Quoting RecordSeason:
699:

Hadn't you heard? The top 18 cold winter and the record level snowfalls of the past few years was ALSO caused by man-made global warming.


Well, as more water evaporates from the ocean in a warmer world, some areas will get more snow.

737. Bonz
A perfect example of what shouldn't be done on the blog. And no, that doesn't make me a "Storm Trooper." My usual designation, given to me by my husband, starts with a "B".

Can we stop this crap NOW?

Quoting DestinJeff:
ATTENTION DENIZENS OF THE BLOG:

"Sai" is an abridged version of StormSai, a moniker I created for a blogger that has since taken his ball and gone home.

It was a term reflective of the many posts about the teaching he had done for many other bloggers, which have since been termed as "Storm Troopers"
738. 7544
igor moving west again .
739. IKE
Seven day HPC forecast shows a wave south of eastern Cuba...

742. Bonz
Igor sure likes that westward movement. I watched it forever until it got too far north to be a thread to my area, but still...west, west, west.
Quoting belizeit:
Dr Master Storm W is gone could you tell us why models are all over the place wit Karl
For Karl, his rate of decay is somewhat debatable, I think, thus, the models aren't agreeing on what steering he will experience.
Quoting 7544:
igor moving west again .

I dont think it really stopped ...
Igor's eye is much bigger than what you see as hole in clouds, I think that is remnant old eye
Look at GOES Central Atlantic - Dvorak Infrared Loop - the bright comma with max scale splotches is circling the huge eye Igor is trying to build (gray circle forming around bright comma) - Igor did similar last EWRC on 9/15 ...
Can see the process and the huge eye with CIMSS - MIMIC - select MIMIC w/button on left pane and look at gif/java animation - that is hours old but very clear about the immense eye formation this AM
Yu can see the same structures on IR/Dvorak - look at spirals meeting at Igor's leading edge that is outer edge new EW ...
Quoting whepton3:


That's interesting... haven't seen anyone mention that one... wonder what that's all about... sure looks like at the very least it's got some rotation.
That's the one it looked like GFS wanted to spin up as it approaches the lessers.
728:

Conservation of momentum. Julia was once moving near 25mph almost due west, so as it collides with Igor, the momentum must go somewhere. Momentum is conserved by accelerating Igor to the west.

In the past hour or so, Igor has moved west of WNW, and is once again approaching a 3W to 1N ratio across the past 4 or 5 hours.
Quoting belizeit:
Dr Master Storm W is gone could you tell us why models are all over the place wit Karl


The models were off and so was Storm. Yesterday he forecasted Karl to come ashore around 22-23N and it landed at 19N. For a small hurricane of that strength that is a big miss to those in harms way.
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, as more water evaporates from the ocean in a warmer world, some areas will get more snow.

and get colder and warmer at the same time!
Quoting oracle28:
clearly the reason for Atlantic activity is due to man-made global warming.

and the reason for Pacific lack of activity is also due to man-made global warming.
These storms called hurricanes have been spinning for many of years, are spinning today, and will be spinning tmrw. Like all weather patterns that fluctuate between high & low watermarks, oceanic trends are no different.
correct. I think the GFS shows the same thing; however, after the 28th or 29th and into the first couple of days in October, it seems like something might form.
Quoting nocaneindy:


Link


Thanks !
Quoting atmoaggie:
That's the one it looked like GFS wanted to spin up as it approaches the lessers.


That was the one a couple days ago and it was on the TAFB site as well.
Hey, it's midol time!


Karl is degenerating faster than expected. Models are all over the place.
Quoting Jeff9641:


That was the one a couple days ago and it was on the TAFB site as well.


Hey Jeff, could you give me the link to the TAFB site? thx
Quoting 7544:
igor moving west again .
Igor is a freakin' relentless BEAST! He has been packing winds between 140 and 155 for days now! WOW!
So-called 'global warming' is more energy trapped in the in the system by CO2 and CH4. Can see in Atlantic today that the atmosphere is NOT in equilibrium. More energy means bigger swings in temp - and bigger storms with more enrgy too - summer and winter...
Prelim Hermine Rainfall Total.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Hey Jeff, could you give me the link to the TAFB site? thx


It was on there I believe Wed and is not there anymore. I believe these models were onto something a few days ago and this could infact be the caribbean system that the GFS orginally had.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Hey Jeff, could you give me the link to the TAFB site? thx


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/index.php?loop&large&basin=nh2&parm=pmsl#contents
Good Afternoon all.
Another cloudburst with strong gusty winds around lunchtime, out of the West.
Localised flooding, branches down, snarled traffic everywhere.

51.5" of rainfall (my location) since the start of this Rainy Season. (May, in this case)
Quoting pottery:
Good Afternoon all.
Another cloudburst with strong gusty winds around lunchtime, out of the West.
Localised flooding, branches down, snarled traffic everywhere.

51.5" of rainfall (my location) since the start of this Rainy Season. (May, in this case)


how does that compare to normal rainfall Pottery?
Quoting pottery:
Good Afternoon all.
Another cloudburst with strong gusty winds around lunchtime, out of the West.
Localised flooding, branches down, snarled traffic everywhere.

51.5" of rainfall (my location) since the start of this Rainy Season. (May, in this case)
Sounds very nice. (Heat index over 100 F, yet again.)
See plenty of spinning between 32-37W; 11-13N...although convection is relatively low.

This is the area in front of the system which NHC is giving the 10% chance.
Quoting atmoaggie:
,
(commas save lives)

Yeah??
I, was nearly run-over, by one, this morning, at about 10:30.
Karl isn't maintaining the deep convection he had. (He did maintain a lot over the Yucatan).

Could be good news for those denizens (scream! Word of the day!) in and around Veracruz.

GOM IR Loop

791. Bonz
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Since you are speaking to me, I'll tell you that the ignore button is perfectly suited to your situation. You are free to use it on any poster you wish. You are not free to try to stop others from expressing an opinion you do not agree with or dislike. In my opinion.


And why must I be obliged to push a button and ignore people who are acting badly?

I haven't spoken up in ages. Unlike those who do the minus bit or use the ignore button, before today, I just hopped past their posts after rolling my eyes. I only minus-ed people who used all caps.

There is no reason to allow those who refuse to behave to have free rein. I have run a large website for six years and I don't tolerate that crap. We have ignore buttons too, but if people show a pattern of misbehaving, heave-ho, off they go.

* *

"Doesn't make the majority right though."

Bad behavior is never right. It's annoying, boring and detracts from a place.
Reports coming in of 3000 Homes damaged in Veracruz.
usually with a spin like that out in the mdr I look for development before the windwards
Quoting BobinTampa:


how does that compare to normal rainfall Pottery?

I will need to check my records to give that answer. But...

Average rainfall for 12 years is 228.6" (about 7.25 Feet)
In that figure is 2 @ 7.9' ('98 and '99) and a 4.2' ('01).
Heaviest rains are traditionally Aug. and Nov.

This year hes been more very heavy rains than the norm. None of those long, drippy periods that seem to go and on. Rather, daily cloudbursts that drop up to 4.5" in an hour.
Today was 1.5" in about 40 mins, with loads of energy.
Hurricane Karl plows into Mexico mainland, weakens
By the CNN Wire Staff
September 17, 2010 2:43 p.m. EDT



Mexico City, Mexico (CNN) -- Hurricane Karl weakened Friday afternoon after making landfall, but the heavy rain and storm surge it spawned still could pose significant problems in the Mexican interior, forecasters said.

Karl was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore about 10 miles (15 kilometers) north of Veracruz, Mexico, CNN's satellite and radar estimates showed, but is now classified Category 2.

The storm delivered torrents of rain and fierce winds several hours before it arrived around 11:30 a.m. (12:30 p.m. ET).

Maximum sustained winds at landfall were near 110 mph (175 kph) with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane was moving west at about 8 mph (13 kph), it said.

The homes of at least 3,000 families in central Mexico were damaged, the state-run Notimex news agency reported.

At 1 p.m. Karl was 15 miles (25 kilometers) west of Veracruz.

High winds and seas could be a threat to oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

"A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 15 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall," the Hurricane Center said. "Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."

Potentially dangerous rain also is forecast.

"Karl is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across the central and southern Mexican Gulf coast region with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible in the interior mountains," the center said. "These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides."

Some local flooding had already been reported, the Mexican Interior Ministry said.

Officials closed some roads and urged evacuations for large areas.

Mexico's National System for Civil Protection issued a red alert, the highest level, for central and southern Veracruz. An orange alert was in place for northern Veracruz and the states of Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and Puebla. A yellow alert was issued for the states of Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi and Oaxaca.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon also issued a warning Friday morning on his Twitter account.

"An alert for Hurricane Karl in the nation's central states," Calderon said. "(It) could convert to a Category 4. It will enter through Veracruz around midday."

Texas could be spared any major problems because a storm surge occurs only near the landfall location, said CNN meteorologist Sean Morris.

Coastal flood advisories have been issued for south Texas, which means forecasters expect a small amount of coastal flooding but nothing serious, Morris said.

A larger threat to south Texas will come from several inches of rain that could cause flooding and mudslides. The area could see as much as 4 inches by Sunday, with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches in far southern Texas.
802. 7544
igor at 62 west now hmmmm
A little long, but I thought it was neat.

I live on ny city and i believe a tornado went through, well staten island is where i live and i believe i got hit with RFD winds can anyone validate that a tornado went through. TY in advance...
Quoting DestinJeff:
How many among us here go to to our prefered news website for the news? Be it CNN, MSNBC, FOX, etc....

We go to that site for news, which is delivered in the site entry and authored by an employee of AP, UPI or whatever.

Now how many among us go to the COMMENTS SECTION of a particular story "to get the news" about that story? Hopefully, none.

Same here, this is the comments section of a blog entry ... not necessarily the first place emergency officials would you have you turn, in the event of an actual emergency, for official news, information, or instructions.

To take the good with the bad in the comments section.


You still do not get the point, DestinJeff. We, in the houston area, do not have Dr. Neal Frank any more. Dr. Neal Frank would field questions on air and give his fairly detailed insight on what he thinks will happen. Our local weather forecasters are good, but they do not go into the detail that Dr. Neal Frank would. CNN/Fox as a source is only gathering generic information and with no real topics open for discussion. I, as others here, come to see "the big picture" and what possibilities may lay ahead. There are only a few on here that will take the time to give knowledgeable information to those that seek it. Levi32 is one that will and I fell that Reed is an up and coming future star. There are some others as well. StormW and Levi32 are the stars worth paying serious attention to now and they will answers questions and concerns. You have done an excellent job, at times, with your maps and charts that I also find informative, if I knew how to read them. I am getting a grasp on doing so now, but it is becuase of people like Levi32 and StormW that I am finally learning how to interpret some of this information. Your style of humor is very enjoyable. Your attacks on the ones that seem to know considerably more than you is nothing more than a distraction. I am quite serious when I say that if you and the other "class clowns" open an act at Comedy Central I will pay to come see your antics. Please, continue with the humor, but delay the practice of attacking those that really are more knowledgeable than you on the tropics. When you have lost your home and all of its belongings to a hurricne, as I have, the "cuteness" becomes a little grating. Still, I like your humor and that of the other "class clowns". Just keep it funny and belay the attacks on those that provide SERIOUS information. .... I wonder how long you would last in a board meeting with your attempts at humor on a serious topic. Afterall, they are not bored meetings, even when they are boring.
Igor starts to exact its price from the Bahamas:
A cruise ship set to depart Boston today for Bermuda will instead set its course for Florida and the Bahamas ahead of Hurricane Igor, company officials announced today.

As weather forecasters predicted Igor will slam into Bermuda this weekend, The Norwegian Cruise Line ship “Norwegian Spirit,” set to leave at 4 p.m. from Black Falcon Avenue port for the small island country, will instead hug the eastern seaboard, stopping in Port Canaveral, Fla. and Nassau, Bahamas.

Other cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean and MSC Cruises, have also rearranged some of their itineraries amid concerns about the Category 3 storm.


When it comes time to add up the economic damage from the storm, the loss of at least a week or two of cruise-line revenue and passengers - and if the port is damaged, or needed for relief operations, perhaps the whole season - will be a not insubstantial part of the whole. But the real damage here is reputational. The Bahamas thrives as an island of tranquility. Every time a storm like this ruins vacation plans, that image takes a hit.
814. flsky
Quoting shadoclown45:
I live on ny city and i believe a tornado went through, well staten island is where i live and i believe i got hit with RFD winds can anyone validate that a tornado went through. TY in advance...

If you go up on this page to menu item, you will find Tornado Report under the Severe Storm menu.
Quoting atmoaggie:
A little long, but I thought it was neat.



Not only "neat", it's kinda mesmerizing. Thanks for posting that Aggie.
Quoting 7544:
igor at 62 west now hmmmm
Id\'d put Igor at about 23N and 62W now and spinning blob on Dvorak covers the new eye (still in cleanup)

Not sure Igor will complete monster eye or if that eye changes recurve in next few days,
but Igor will have a huge eye even after contraction or some kind of spiral eye and maybe struggling ...
Circulating cleanup is gonna win I think - it is vigorous.
823. xcool


12zEuro on board
stalled in cab
Response UpdateLink
NASA's CloudSat satellite captured a slice of Hurricane Karl's clouds at 07:59 UTC (3:59 a.m. EDT) Sept. 17. CloudSat shows clouds are over 8 miles high. The blue areas along the top of the clouds indicate cloud ice. The highest clouds in Karl at the time of the image were as cold as -40 Celsius (-40 Fahrenheit) to -60C (-76 Fahrenheit). That line disappears where there is strong rainfall exceeding 30mm/hr (1.18 inches/hour).

Cloudgatherer #813----you might want to edit---it is Bermuda paying the price---Bahamas getting the business.
Quoting shadoclown45:
I live on ny city and i believe a tornado went through, well staten island is where i live and i believe i got hit with RFD winds can anyone validate that a tornado went through. TY in advance...


A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM...IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
THE NYC OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL CONDUCT A DAMAGE SURVEY
IN STATEN ISLAND...BROOKLYN AND QUEENS ON FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE ALL
DATA HAS BEEN COLLECTED...A DETERMINATION WILL BE MADE AS TO WHETHER
A TORNADO OR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OCCURRED THURSDAY EVENING.


Link

They have not released the results of the survey yet, but check back with that link, it should be posted there when it is completed.
829. flsky
Quoting StormChaser81:
NASA's CloudSat satellite captured a slice of Hurricane Karl's clouds at 07:59 UTC (3:59 a.m. EDT) Sept. 17. CloudSat shows clouds are over 8 miles high. The blue areas along the top of the clouds indicate cloud ice. The highest clouds in Karl at the time of the image were as cold as -40 Celsius (-40 Fahrenheit) to -60C (-76 Fahrenheit). That line disappears where there is strong rainfall exceeding 30mm/hr (1.18 inches/hour).


Hey! Incredible image!
Quoting pottery:

Posters on here are flagging them, I think.
A bit of an over-reaction to the last few days of foolishness.


I'm glad that I have learned to stay away from drama.
Quoting StormChaser81:
NASA's CloudSat satellite captured a slice of Hurricane Karl's clouds at 07:59 UTC (3:59 a.m. EDT) Sept. 17. CloudSat shows clouds are over 8 miles high. The blue areas along the top of the clouds indicate cloud ice. The highest clouds in Karl at the time of the image were as cold as -40 Celsius (-40 Fahrenheit) to -60C (-76 Fahrenheit). That line disappears where there is strong rainfall exceeding 30mm/hr (1.18 inches/hour).


Great Image.
Thanks..
Igor creeping closer to Nfld.
Could be interesting as Julia swings into Igor and deepens baroclinically into an Extratropical Beast, east of Sable Island.
Quoting StormChaser81:
NASA's CloudSat satellite captured a slice of Hurricane Karl's clouds at 07:59 UTC (3:59 a.m. EDT) Sept. 17. CloudSat shows clouds are over 8 miles high. The blue areas along the top of the clouds indicate cloud ice. The highest clouds in Karl at the time of the image were as cold as -40 Celsius (-40 Fahrenheit) to -60C (-76 Fahrenheit). That line disappears where there is strong rainfall exceeding 30mm/hr (1.18 inches/hour).



That is pretty wicked! Gives and idead of what you would look at 4 miles up. Scary!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You still do not get the point, DestinJeff. We, in the houston area, do not have Dr. Neal Frank any more. Dr. Neal Frank would field questions on air and give his fairly detailed insight on what he thinks will happen. Our local weather forecasters are good, but they do not go into the detail that Dr. Neal Frank would. CNN/Fox as a source is only gathering generic information and with no real topics open for discussion. I, as others here, come to see "the big picture" and what possibilities may lay ahead. There are only a few on here that will take the time to give knowledgeable information to those that seek it. Levi32 is one that will and I fell that Reed is an up and coming future star. There are some others as well. StormW and Levi32 are the stars worth paying serious attention to now and they will answers questions and concerns. You have done an excellent job, at times, with your maps and charts that I also find informative, if I knew how to read them. I am getting a grasp on doing so now, but it is becuase of people like Levi32 and StormW that I am finally learning how to interpret some of this information. Your style of humor is very enjoyable. Your attacks on the ones that seem to know considerably more than you is nothing more than a distraction. I am quite serious when I say that if you and the other "class clowns" open an act at Comedy Central I will pay to come see your antics. Please, continue with the humor, but delay the practice of attacking those that really are more knowledgeable than you on the tropics. When you have lost your home and all of its belongings to a hurricne, as I have, the "cuteness" becomes a little grating. Still, I like your humor and that of the other "class clowns". Just keep it funny and belay the attacks on those that provide SERIOUS information. .... I wonder how long you would last in a board meeting with your attempts at humor on a serious topic. Afterall, they are not bored meetings, even when they are boring.



try FLhurricane.com NO BS ALL INFORMATIVE, however they do not put up w/ BS. The site is moderated by meteoroligist.
Quoting atmoaggie:
A little long, but I thought it was neat.



I agree atmo! And still going on.
:)

Saw also the rainfall totals from Hermine you just posted. That's neat, too. Thing is, you look at something like that and realize the major rainfall isn't necessarily near the low center. That's something Hermine taught me when she crossed OK. So I'm wondering where Karl will dump the most rain.
Just a reminder - right above where you type in your comment is the following text - under Admin Notice, immediately under the link to Rules of the Road:

"During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban."

Everyone here should know those Rules of the Road and comply with them. We are at the peak of hurricane season, and the one post that was skipped over because there were 4900 comments on that blog may have been the one to save a few lives. Think about that when advancing the notion that "humor" and socializing are essential components of this blog.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You still do not get the point, DestinJeff. We, in the houston area, do not have Dr. Neal Frank any more. Dr. Neal Frank would field questions on air and give his fairly detailed insight on what he thinks will happen. Our local weather forecasters are good, but they do not go into the detail that Dr. Neal Frank would. CNN/Fox as a source is only gathering generic information and with no real topics open for discussion. I, as others here, come to see "the big picture" and what possibilities may lay ahead. There are only a few on here that will take the time to give knowledgeable information to those that seek it. Levi32 is one that will and I fell that Reed is an up and coming future star. There are some others as well. StormW and Levi32 are the stars worth paying serious attention to now and they will answers questions and concerns. You have done an excellent job, at times, with your maps and charts that I also find informative, if I knew how to read them. I am getting a grasp on doing so now, but it is becuase of people like Levi32 and StormW that I am finally learning how to interpret some of this information. Your style of humor is very enjoyable. Your attacks on the ones that seem to know considerably more than you is nothing more than a distraction. I am quite serious when I say that if you and the other "class clowns" open an act at Comedy Central I will pay to come see your antics. Please, continue with the humor, but delay the practice of attacking those that really are more knowledgeable than you on the tropics. When you have lost your home and all of its belongings to a hurricne, as I have, the "cuteness" becomes a little grating. Still, I like your humor and that of the other "class clowns". Just keep it funny and belay the attacks on those that provide SERIOUS information. .... I wonder how long you would last in a board meeting with your attempts at humor on a serious topic. Afterall, they are not bored meetings, even when they are boring.


Notice during this whole thing that NO ONE has attacked Levi...It is SW's on going ego trip that has dug his own grave for him. That and not being able to handle constructive criticism or someone that disagrees with his "analysis". There are plenty of people, including some of the comedians, on this blog that will share relevant information and help people learn. All SW did was regurgitate what the NHC, models, and professional mets had to say...With a little bit of Westcasting thrown in. Well, and he was always extra nice to the ladies.

I see posts are back in to falling in to never never land. That is a real shame. That is one of the two problems that are keeping this going. For one, I am not a fan of the censorship. You can come in and say how much better you think SW is than the Dr, or the NHC. I'm intelligent enough to overlook that or respond to it depending on what I want to do at the time. The major factor in this continuing ordeal is the disappearing posts. Admin should be the only ones that can make a post vanish. If they are deleting this many comments then some 24hr bans should be handed out. To myself included, if that is there choice.

Seems like she's hard to defeat... still fighting...


Wow, this community is just turning on and devouring itself.

Shame on the trollers for making it get to this point, and shame on the cliquish community for allowing it to happen.
Afternoon all.

What's been going on today??? I've been having masses of hidden posts, plus many community standards violations. Is this new activity by trolls, or just Admin stepping up the surveillance? And what's this about StormW?

Quoting atmoaggie:
A little long, but I thought it was neat.

I agree; really cool loop of a landfalling hurricane. Thanks for sharing.

Any word on damage from the Veracruz area as yet? Also, I saw a link to a webcam earlier today. Anybody still have that link?
843. unf97
Quoting clwstmchasr:
What's with all of the comments being removed?


Well, it has become apparent that the blog administrators and Dr. Masters are very tightly policing this blog. I have been a member of Weather Underground for three years and I have never seen the blog get so out of hand with a bunch of silliness lately. This has always been in my view the very best place on the internet to see the latest developments about tropical weather. Now, it has degenerated into a bunch on nonsense and bickering among some of the bloggers on here. It is really taking away from the great forum and service that Dr. Jeff Masters has provided to us. It is really ashame and it is about high time that administrators enforce the rules of this blog for the ones on here who are not using proper etiquette!
Hurricane Karl plows into Mexico mainland, weakens
By the CNN Wire Staff
September 17, 2010 2:43 p.m. EDT



Mexico City, Mexico (CNN) -- Hurricane Karl weakened Friday afternoon after making landfall, but the heavy rain and storm surge it spawned still could pose significant problems in the Mexican interior, forecasters said.

Karl was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore about 10 miles (15 kilometers) north of Veracruz, Mexico, CNN's satellite and radar estimates showed, but is now classified Category 2.

The storm delivered torrents of rain and fierce winds several hours before it arrived around 11:30 a.m. (12:30 p.m. ET).

Maximum sustained winds at landfall were near 110 mph (175 kph) with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane was moving west at about 8 mph (13 kph), it said.

The homes of at least 3,000 families in central Mexico were damaged, the state-run Notimex news agency reported.


At 1 p.m. Karl was 15 miles (25 kilometers) west of Veracruz.

High winds and seas could be a threat to oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

"A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 15 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall," the Hurricane Center said. "Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."

Potentially dangerous rain also is forecast.

"Karl is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across the central and southern Mexican Gulf coast region with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible in the interior mountains," the center said. "These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides."

Some local flooding had already been reported, the Mexican Interior Ministry said.

Officials closed some roads and urged evacuations for large areas.

Mexico's National System for Civil Protection issued a red alert, the highest level, for central and southern Veracruz. An orange alert was in place for northern Veracruz and the states of Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and Puebla. A yellow alert was issued for the states of Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi and Oaxaca.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon also issued a warning Friday morning on his Twitter account.

"An alert for Hurricane Karl in the nation's central states," Calderon said. "(It) could convert to a Category 4. It will enter through Veracruz around midday."

Texas could be spared any major problems because a storm surge occurs only near the landfall location, said CNN meteorologist Sean Morris.

Coastal flood advisories have been issued for south Texas, which means forecasters expect a small amount of coastal flooding but nothing serious, Morris said.

A larger threat to south Texas will come from several inches of rain that could cause flooding and mudslides. The area could see as much as 4 inches by Sunday, with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches in far southern Texas.
I accidentally hit the "rich text" button and it's got me all messed up, can't quote for example. Anyone know the fix. I can't find a button to switch it off.
849. Bonz
I knew when I mentioned my own place that someone would say just that, but my point in mentioning it was to show that I *did* have experience with trolls or inappropriate behavior (not necessarily the same thing.)

When the behavior starts overwhelming a place, one should act. I don't know why that is not the case here and it's unfortunate, but I don't like the inappropriate behaviors, on either side, and I see no reason why I must be obliged to either tolerate it or have to "blank it out" so that kiddies can have their fun.

I respect that others may disagree with my stance, but I am standing up for once and saying I'm tired of it.

Quoting SuperYooper:


Wait, you are talking about your own site. By all means, do what you must with yours. However, you are talking about the Docs site and he would have done something by now if he had a problem with it, don't you think? I'm sure nobody had emailed him complaining about "juvinile behaviour" yet.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
I accidentally hit the "rich text" button and it's got me all messed up, can't quote for example. Anyone know the fix. I can't find a button to switch it off.


Just click the Plain text one and you will default back to normal.
851. P451
Quoting StormChaser81:
NASA's CloudSat satellite captured a slice of Hurricane Karl's clouds at 07:59 UTC (3:59 a.m. EDT) Sept. 17. CloudSat shows clouds are over 8 miles high. The blue areas along the top of the clouds indicate cloud ice. The highest clouds in Karl at the time of the image were as cold as -40 Celsius (-40 Fahrenheit) to -60C (-76 Fahrenheit). That line disappears where there is strong rainfall exceeding 30mm/hr (1.18 inches/hour).



Absolutely impressive post. Thanks!
Good Post, StormJunkie.
854. flsky
Quoting RayRayfromLa:



try FLhurricane.com NO BS ALL INFORMATIVE, however they do not put up w/ BS. The site is moderated by meteoroligist.

Thanks for this link! I added it to my bookmarks. Still couldn't stay away from Dr M's blog entirely tho.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
I accidentally hit the "rich text" button and it's got me all messed up, can't quote for example. Anyone know the fix. I can't find a button to switch it off.


I think if you use "settings" at the top of the page and set them to default that may work. You would then need to set them back to your preferences.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM...IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
THE NYC OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL CONDUCT A DAMAGE SURVEY
IN STATEN ISLAND...BROOKLYN AND QUEENS ON FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE ALL
DATA HAS BEEN COLLECTED...A DETERMINATION WILL BE MADE AS TO WHETHER
A TORNADO OR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OCCURRED THURSDAY EVENING.


Link

They have not released the results of the survey yet, but check back with that link, it should be posted there when it is completed.


LOL, nrt. You beat me to it!
IGOR Rainbow



Quoting CloudGatherer:
Igor starts to exact its price from the Bahamas:
A cruise ship set to depart Boston today for Bermuda will instead set its course for Florida and the Bahamas ahead of Hurricane Igor, company officials announced today.

As weather forecasters predicted Igor will slam into Bermuda this weekend, The Norwegian Cruise Line ship “Norwegian Spirit,” set to leave at 4 p.m. from Black Falcon Avenue port for the small island country, will instead hug the eastern seaboard, stopping in Port Canaveral, Fla. and Nassau, Bahamas.

Other cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean and MSC Cruises, have also rearranged some of their itineraries amid concerns about the Category 3 storm.


When it comes time to add up the economic damage from the storm, the loss of at least a week or two of cruise-line revenue and passengers - and if the port is damaged, or needed for relief operations, perhaps the whole season - will be a not insubstantial part of the whole. But the real damage here is reputational. The Bahamas thrives as an island of tranquility. Every time a storm like this ruins vacation plans, that image takes a hit.
Huh?

I'm not clear what u mean by this. I understand the economic impact bit, but not really clear which island you are saying will be hit by this.

Sounds like my country is going to benefit from Bermuda's misfortune. FYI, Bermuda is a British protectorate while The Bahamas (where Nassau is located) is an independent nation (since 1973). Additionally, The Bahamas is an archipelago of over 700 islands and keys filling the "L" of Florida and Cuba. Bermuda might be more likely to be considered one island. If u meant Bermuda, this makes sense. Otherwise, I'm really confused.
Quoting pottery:
Good Post, StormJunkie.


Thanks pottery and good to see you. Maybe this will be my 1 in 20 posts that doesn't get whacked today :)

Less the Gridded Map

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Igor
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)











Patrap, the plain text button has disappeared. It's supposed to be above the comment box, correct?
Bermuda weather forecast at
http://www.weather.bm/index.asp


870. TX2FL
How did Igor/Julia get pulled north and Karl is going due west? One would think with that, Karl would have been heading north in the Gulf also.
WunderBlogs_-_Standards


WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by our employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.

For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.
Quoting seflagamma:
I see post disappearing again.
I was not under the impression that the "-" sign made post disappear..

I thought the " " and "-"
helped determine if your post were shown on the "average or above average" viewing...

I thought only "!" were the ones that got admin's attention...

please tell me "!" are not being used to get all the comments removed????


and I think some people here let their egos get in the way...
We should agree to disagree...
and not have the "I'll take my ball and go home" attitude..

I've seen some here threaten to leave over and over and they come back..
their egos need the praise ...

but when you suck up and live off the praise you also must be thick skinned enough to take the punches you are bound to get.


Now will this comment disappear also???
I've never been "banned" from Dr Master's blog before..I've been banned from a few of the personal blogs but not this one.


anyway, I see poor Mexico is getting whalloped.. I hope they had time to prepared.
I am now worried more about those folks than Bermuda.. Bermuda has had over a week to see this coming.

Good afternoon everyone!


Agree. Bermuda should be as prepared as they can be by now. The models have been pointing in their general direction for many days now.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Patrap, the plain text button has disappeared. It's supposed to be above the comment box, correct?


sAME AS WHERE YOU SAW IT ON YOUR BROWSER,,oN firefox IT IS JUST RIGHT OF THE COMMENT BOX.

mAYBE SHUT DOWN AND RE-START,FOR A QUICK FIX.
884. XLR8
Can anyone tell me when the high over the south is going to move off. Trying to figure out when we might expect some rain. thanks
Quoting TX2FL:
How did Igor/Julia get pulled north and Karl is going due west? One would think with that, Karl would have been heading north in the Gulf also.


not necessarily. Karl is being steered by a high centered over the southern united states while igor is moving its way poleward due to a weakness between the high steering karl and the high centered over the atlantic

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I think if you use "settings" at the top of the page and set them to default that may work. You would then need to set them back to your preferences.


Thanks nrt, that fixed it.

Also, don't hit the rich text button....doh!
Quoting angiest:


This *is* the comments section of Dr. M's blog, and not hurricane central itself. That distinction.


You say it, the comment section of Dr. M's blog,in other words, weather related comments, not a teenagers and clown chat forum.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Agree. Bermuda should be as prepared as they can be by now. The models have been pointing in their general direction for many days now.


Regardless of which side the eye is on... time to batten down the Bermuda hatches. Hooray for cement homes; water and bungee cords.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Pat,
Whats up with the reverse Caps lock? I don't think its me because I haven't started drinking yet.



Sometimes,well..Im just Lazy,..

LOL
Quoting Patrap:


sAME AS WHERE YOU SAW IT ON YOUR BROWSER,,oN firefox IT IS JUST RIGHT OF THE COMMENT BOX.

mAYBE SHUT DOWN AND RE-START,FOR A QUICK FIX.


Just had to reset settings to default. Thanks for assisting.
Quoting angiest:


Agree with you on missing Dr. Frank. But, DJ does have a point. The individuals you mentioned, Levi, Reed, Storm, have their own blogs, either here or elsewhere, where that information is available. This *is* the comments section of Dr. M's blog, and not hurricane central itself. That distinction belongs to the section above the break, and not here. Yes, you can get up-to-the-minute information here, in the comments section, but the comments are not the "authoritative" source. Oh well, just me $0.02.

I have visited MANY 'comment sections' on many blogs of all different kinds. This one is mild compared to many, in terms of Foolishness.
These are "COMMENT SECTIONS" people.
It is good that one can come here and get real-time weather info, but to abuse people here for being 'sarcastic', 'humorous, 'wrong', etc etc, tends to show that many on here take themselves much too seriously for their own good.

I love it, for instance when posters say things like "Cant the NHC see what is happening with....?"
Cracks me up, everytime!
The Plus and Minus buttons are a logic based algorithm, If one constantly flags a single blogger or posts that others arent,,it recognizes it and dismisses that individuals flagging.


As you see now by the lack of removals.
Quoting StormJunkie:


BT, to some extent it is jut going to have to run it's course, but it can't do that with comments being deleted by a posse using the

Gamma, my understanding, and it is on pretty reliable info, the button WILL send a post to the "violates community standards" rapidly growing bone yard.


I've never heard of a system where the report button automatically deletes something. It is meant as a flag for the moderators. The - button would work as well if people are using filters.

I am a moderator elsewhere.


The trough over the US is all the way down to 27-30N while over Igor it is 40N.

Quoting TX2FL:
How did Igor/Julia get pulled north and Karl is going due west? One would think with that, Karl would have been heading north in the Gulf also.
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!

Quoting JupiterFL:


Agree. Bermuda should be as prepared as they can be by now. The models have been pointing in their general direction for many days now.


Oh my goodness, my post disappeared...
That has never happened to me yet! LOL

I guess that answered my question..

Yes, Bermuda should have had plenty of time.

GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery



These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.


GOES-12 Atlantic,LARGE low Cloud Image
Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!



Great image, very interesting.
Quoting StormJunkie:


You are not a moderator here though. I would stake my next paycheck on the fact that the hit X number of times, sends a post to the violating community standards grave yard.


If that's true, which I doubt, then it is a bad system.
916. flsky
Quoting SQUAWK:

Wouldn't that be something if Igor scooted back around!
Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!

Very cool.
Quoting Patrap:
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery



These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.


GOES-12 Atlantic,LARGE low Cloud Image
Thanks Patrap. You always make a good contribution to this blog.
...KARL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FASTER...
927. unf97
Quoting XLR8:
Can anyone tell me when the high over the south is going to move off. Trying to figure out when we might expect some rain. thanks


Well, we will find out in the next 10-12 days. This very persistent High Pressure has been parked over the SE U.S. for most of this summer and remains in place currently. This has contributed to a record hot and dry summer here in NE FL and SE GA.

However, we may see a change in the pattern by the end of this month and into the beginning of October. Global models are trying to develop a upper level trough which is forecast in the next 10-12 days to develop across the midsection of the CONUS and head eastward. If this trough develops and digs sharply as it traverses eastward, it may be enough to shift this persistent High pressure eastward, opening up the flow from the Caribbean and GOM to enter into the Southeast U.S.

Hence, this will be what we will all be watching for over the next 10-12 days to see if the aforementioned scenario develops as models have been consistently developing a tropical cyclone to be in the Caribbean in the next 7 -10 days. If this happens, then what occurs with that trough will be critical with the evolution of a possible track with any cyclone in the Caribbean or GOM.

Lots to watch in the coming days certainly!
What's deviating Igor : A trough or a Ridge??

TROUGH - An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE - An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.
Quoting angiest:


If that's true, which I doubt, then it is a bad system.

Why? It's continuously self moderating based on the users..
The board can be taken over by a group but an occasional check by a moderator can control that.

92 made a strong showing a major
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
I agree with you 100%, Bob in Tampa. There is a lot of serious talent on this blog. I even stated that there are others on here that will take the time to answer questions being asked even though I did not name them all. ( The list would be too long ) I also enjoy the humor on this blog. Why should we attack anyone that contributes to the knowledge base? Do you seriously believe that StormW is the only one with an ego on here? I do not care about the ego. I care what information they can give me that proves to be beneficial to many.

Right now my primary interest is to gain insight as to what may be coming my way in the next couple weeks. Yes, projections this far out can be all garbage, but it does give me some information that I may need to take note of. Like it or not, StormW has given me some valuable information. He will look at the complete picture and not just the rose or the thorns. ... I'll go back to lurking. I am not helping the situation any.


FWIW I am following how GFS develops the forecast Caribbean/Gulf system:
Link

Quoting islander101010:
92 made a strong showing a major
???
NEW BLOG
Quoting bird72:


No my friend, Dr.Master himself, take control of the situation, those erase post are adm. erase post. Don't ask me why I know, I'm not going to tell you. Again, the more you move it, the more it sucks.


I think that is most likely. Wunderground does have people on salary who can delete flagged posts. And given what has been going on here lately, their orders may simply be delete anything that is flagged.
Tornado Strike NYC
.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL
WILLACY...HIDALGO...INLAND CAMERON...INLAND WILLACY AND KENEDY.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO SATURATED THE SOIL. REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
COULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH AREAS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA


* AREAS MOST VULNERABLE TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW LYING
AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE OF STREETS AND UNDERPASSES OF HIGHWAYS AND
SERVICE ROADS ALONG HIGHWAY 77 AND 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.


Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!



Wow! Thanks for posting.

Quoting btwntx08:

???


Did you forget 92L became Karl?
946. flsky
Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!


When someone posts an image such as this, I think we can all see why this blog is valuable. With so many "weather heads" searching out this sort info for the rest of us, I think we can see why so many people keep coming back.
NEW BLOG!!!
949. xcool
newewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww blog new blog
ok
er,,new entry Padawans..
Quoting JupiterFL:
Ok everyone please flag my post. Lets see if it disappears.
I notice that an individual only has one chance to + or - plus one chance for the ! Darn I don't know how to change this to red. Can't find the pallette.
Quoting sunlinepr:
What's deviating Igor : A trough or a Ridge??

TROUGH - An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE - An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.

whats deviating? he is doing the same thing for days..heading to Bermuda with a few wobbles?
Are you asking what is steering him currently?
That would be the trough..but it has not picked him up as much as allowed him to flow into it since it is an area of lower pressure than the other areas around him. I also believe that the natural tendency for northward motion is at play. If there were any strong steering currents pushing him he would be moving faster. If there were strong winds in a direction other than he was moving he would be getting sheared..
the African situation

Quoting angiest:


They may be actively deleting flagged posts, more-so than normal.

Looks like it worked though...
Thanks....
Quoting sailingallover:

whats deviating? he is doing the same thing for days..heading to Bermuda with a few wobbles?
Are you asking what is steering him currently?
That would be the trough..but it has not picked him up as much as allowed him to flow into it since it is an area of lower pressure than the other areas around him. I also believe that the natural tendency for northward motion is at play. If there were any strong steering currents pushing him he would be moving faster. If there were strong winds in a direction other than he was moving he would be getting sheared..
959. xcool
new blog blog
Quoting flsky:

Wouldn't that be something if Igor scooted back around!


No! And I do not like the way it is headed either. I want that Xrap line to start swinging north soon!
I reckon so!
Quoting sailingallover:
quoting sunlinepr:


whats deviating? he is doing the same thing for days..heading to Bermuda with a few wobbles?
Are you asking what is steering him currently?
That would be the trough..but it has not picked him up as much as allowed him to flow into it since it is an area of lower pressure than the other areas around him. I also believe that the natural tendency for northward motion is at play. If there were any strong steering currents pushing him he would be moving faster. If there were strong winds in a direction other than he was moving he would be getting sheared..


This makes it look like the ridge/trough hasnt done alot ... (morphed PW through 1200z)
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Could I be the last one to comment on this blog before everyone switches to the NEW BLOG?


No...
Quoting seflagamma:
I see post disappearing again.
I was not under the impression that the "-" sign made post disappear..

I thought the " " and "-"
helped determine if your post were shown on the "average or above average" viewing...

I thought only "!" were the ones that got admin's attention...

please tell me "!" are not being used to get all the comments removed????


and I think some people here let their egos get in the way...
We should agree to disagree...
and not have the "I'll take my ball and go home" attitude..

I've seen some here threaten to leave over and over and they come back..
their egos need the praise ...

but when you suck up and live off the praise you also must be thick skinned enough to take the punches you are bound to get.


Now will this comment disappear also???
I've never been "banned" from Dr Master's blog before..I've been banned from a few of the personal blogs but not this one.


anyway, I see poor Mexico is getting whalloped.. I hope they had time to prepared.
I am now worried more about those folks than Bermuda.. Bermuda has had over a week to see this coming.

Good afternoon everyone!
Gams, our understanding is similar... I must need to go read back the last 1000 posts, because I'm not sure where all the "ego-related" comments are coming from...
Quoting seflagamma:


Oh my goodness, my post disappeared...
That has never happened to me yet! LOL

I guess that answered my question..

Yes, Bermuda should have had plenty of time.

I still see ur post fine, though maybe that's because I haven't updated the page yet... lol

I think I'm going to read back and find out what in the world is going on....

Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!

Great TRMM stuff here... pity we didn't get this when Igor was flirting with cat 5.... that would have been fantastic!
Kinda of staying put at the movies until all of the credits are finished showing. I guess the movie is finally over!
Quoting DestinJeff:
Updated steering for Igor:

Not looking good for Bermuda, would rather have that high to the east not expand such to force Igor west of the island...



GFS, Navy and CMC steering forecasts for 250 to 700 mb out to 60 hours are not showing any indications of this happening.

That's the good news. The bad news is that they are not showing any weakening that would favor a course more to the east. Near as I can tell, they call for just west of or on top of Bermuda. A pass to the east is, of course, possible but it's not showing up in the steering forecast yet. We can only hope that it passes to the east. But 65W, 32N is looking like a hot zone at this point.
Quoting BLee2333:


No...
Darn! Well, off to the NEW BLOG!
Thank you, angiest. You ARE one of the many that gives hope to this blog.
Thanks for your answers but Excuse me, cause maybe I did'nt explained well my question. Given that the definitions of trough and ridge are:
TROUGH - An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE - An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.

What is steering Igor right now a Ridge or a Trough?
Quoting angiest:


If that's true, which I doubt, then it is a bad system.


If you're quick and you get to read some of the posts before they get deleted, you will see what people are saying. "Auto-moderating" has been around for a very long time. I remember having it back in the late 80's. But, longevity doesn't necessarily mean good. The abuse we are seeing here recently shows how a group can easily misuse such a system.

(Though to their dubious credit, they seem to have taken a two-pronged approach to the battle, using every means available to them.)
Quoting seflagamma:
I see post disappearing again.
I was not under the impression that the "-" sign made post disappear..

I thought the " " and "-"
helped determine if your post were shown on the "average or above average" viewing...

I thought only "!" were the ones that got admin's attention...

please tell me "!" are not being used to get all the comments removed????


and I think some people here let their egos get in the way...
We should agree to disagree...
and not have the "I'll take my ball and go home" attitude..

I've seen some here threaten to leave over and over and they come back..
their egos need the praise ...

but when you suck up and live off the praise you also must be thick skinned enough to take the punches you are bound to get.


Now will this comment disappear also???
I've never been "banned" from Dr Master's blog before..I've been banned from a few of the personal blogs but not this one.


anyway, I see poor Mexico is getting whalloped.. I hope they had time to prepared.
I am now worried more about those folks than Bermuda.. Bermuda has had over a week to see this coming.

Good afternoon everyone!


I couldn't agree with you more! I have been reading this blog since 2004 and finally became a member in 2006 and as you can see, I hardly every posted; in fact, this may even be my first post. I have never seen so many post removed; especially, when some of post removed are from people, such as keeperofgate, Pottery, Stormjunkie, and others that I highly doubt deserved to be removed! In my opinion the "Report to Admin" button should be removed because, with out a doubt, it's being abused. If you don't like a post or poster put them on your ignore list, and believe or not it works. I, personally, have several people on mine. I'm sure some won't like my post and report it as well, or they will say there are children on the blog, so we shouldn't get rid of "The Report to Admin" button. I got news for you, children today here far worse or vulgar stuff at school and their friends. Furthermore, the children that to come on this blog can also use the ignore button if they are offended by a comment or certain blogger. Okay, I'm done ranting, back to Lurking.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Notice during this whole thing that NO ONE has attacked Levi...It is SW's on going ego trip that has dug his own grave for him. That and not being able to handle constructive criticism or someone that disagrees with his "analysis". There are plenty of people, including some of the comedians, on this blog that will share relevant information and help people learn. All SW did was regurgitate what the NHC, models, and professional mets had to say...With a little bit of Westcasting thrown in. Well, and he was always extra nice to the ladies.

I see posts are back in to falling in to never never land. That is a real shame. That is one of the two problems that are keeping this going. For one, I am not a fan of the censorship. You can come in and say how much better you think SW is than the Dr, or the NHC. I'm intelligent enough to overlook that or respond to it depending on what I want to do at the time. The major factor in this continuing ordeal is the disappearing posts. Admin should be the only ones that can make a post vanish. If they are deleting this many comments then some 24hr bans should be handed out. To myself included, if that is there choice.




Excellent Post! +10000
I have seen a lot of things change sence I have been on this weather Blog.. And the weather too.