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Hurricane Jimena, California smoke, and Invest 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2009

The most powerful hurricane on the planet so far this year, Hurricane Jimena, continues to maintain an intensity just below Category 5 strength. Jimena's 155 mph winds beat out the South Pacific's Tropical Cyclone Hamish (150 mph winds) as the most powerful tropical cyclone so far this year. Satellite estimates of Jimena's strength continue to show no weakening of the hurricane, and the Hurricane Hunters are currently enroute to Jimena to see exactly how strong the hurricane is.

Jimena is expected to make landfall Wednesday along the Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 29°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a decrease in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should allow Jimena to be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. The computer models remain in good agreement that Jimena will miss the southern Baja resort town of Cabo San Lucas, and make landfall midway up the Baja Peninsula. However, just a small deviation in track would bring Jimena ashore in southern Baja. Cabo San Lucas has a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, according to NHC's wind probability product. Serious flooding due to heavy rains will occur across all of the southern Baja today and Wednesday. Jimena is of similar intensity and is following a similar track to Hurricane Juliette of 2001, which brought 17.7" of rain to Cabo San Lucas. Juliette weakened to a 45 mph tropical storm before hitting Baja, but the storm killed 7 people and caused $20 million in damage to Mexico, mostly due to flash flooding and mudslides from the heavy rains. Jimena will probably be one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit Baja.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Rainfall totals from Hurricane Juliette of 2001, which had a similar track and intensity as Hurricane Jimena. Image credit: NOAA.

California fires creating major air pollution event
The wildfires burning east of Los Angeles, California have created a major air pollution event, and will continue to impact air quality for millions of people in Southern California today. The fires have burned over 90,000 acres and have led to Unhealthy to Hazardous Air Quality Index (AQI) levels (Code Red to Code Brown) for the past five days in nearby regions. Not only are fine smoke particles directly elevating the most deadly form of air pollution--particle pollution, the gases in the smoke are reacting with sunlight to form ground-level ozone, another dangerous pollutant. High pressure over the southwestern states today will keep temperatures hot and relative humidity low in the vicinity of the fires. Smoke has settled into the valleys of Los Angeles County overnight and in the eastern San Bernardino Valley. While onshore ocean breezes Tuesday afternoon are expected to move smoke into the mountains, winds will also increase fire growth potential. Air pollution levels will continue to reach the Unhealthy level (code red, see Figure 2) today over much of the Los Angeles area. By Wednesday, weather conditions will improve as the high pressure region over Southern California weakens and moves east, bringing cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and stronger airflow from the cool ocean, aiding firefighting efforts.

Health tip: People in areas directly impacted by smoke should avoid any vigorous exertion, indoors or outdoors. In addition, people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly, and children should remain indoors. Individuals without air conditioning who stay inside with the windows closed may be in danger during extremely hot weather. In these cases, individuals should seek alternative shelter. For the latest information on this air pollution event, see the latest South Coast Air Quality Management District Air Quality Advisory.

Check out our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event.


Figure 2. NASA MODIS satellite image of the California fires of August 31, 2009 (top) with air pollution levels at major cities superimposed. Bottom: air quality forecast for today, September 1, 2009. Image credit: EPA AIRNOW.

Invest 94L strong but disorganized
Tropical wave 94L, about 250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to toy with the idea of becoming a tropical depression. Infrared satellite imagery shows the low has developed a region of heavy thunderstorms that extend high into the atmosphere. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed surface winds of 45 mph beneath these thunderstorms. However, QuikSCAT showed no surface circulation, with a large and rather confused region of wind shifts and lines of convergence at the surface. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear has oscillated between 10 - 20 knots over 94L this morning, and this shear is keeping the storm disorganized. Also, last night's upper-air balloon sounding from Guadeloupe is showing the presence of a narrow jet of 30 knot winds from the east at 700 mb (3000 meters). The relatively crude measures of shear we use, taking the difference between the wind at 200 mb and 850 mb, will miss seeing these sort of this layers of shearing winds that can have a strong negative impact on the organization of a developing tropical disturbance. It is apparent from visible satellite imagery that shear is causing some disruption to the southwest side of 94L, and that there is no surface circulation. The storm also has fewer low-level spiral bands than yesterday.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 00Z and 06Z model runs continue to be split on whether 94L will develop or not, with the GFDL and HWRF models bringing 94L to hurricane strength in 4 days, and the NOGAPS and ECMWF predicting 94L will just be a disturbance 4 days from now. SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, but high shear may continue to delay 94L from developing into a tropical depression for several days. The storm is moving more slowly today, about 10 mph, and will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. The degree of northward motion of 94L will depend upon how soon the storm becomes a tropical depression and begins intensification. If 94L follows the GFDL and HWRF model's predictions, and intensifies into a hurricane four days from now, a more northwestward track taking the storm between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda is likely. If 94L lingers a few more days as a tropical disturbance, a more southerly track over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas is more likely.

The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 94L at 2 pm this afternoon, and I'll update the blog by 3:30 pm.

Jeff Masters

Station Fire with Plane
Station Fire with Plane
Station Fire burning to the North of Los Angeles, as seen from a hilltop in Reseda. The DC-10 firefighting plane can bee seen turning in towards the fire.
Red Sky In The Morning . . .
Red Sky In The Morning . . .
Morning view of the East Flank of the Station Fire from my Back yard. Weather Conditions as of 6am, Temperature 74°, 13% Humidity and slight wind from the Northeast. Forecast is for triple digit Temperatures again today. Check my WeatherCam for current images throughout the day. http://www.westphalfamily.com/wxdata2.html Here's hoping for a quiet day.
Smoke over LA continues
Smoke over LA continues
On August 30th, 2009, smoke plumes continue to rise to 10,000 feet over LA from the fires in the surrounding mountains. The city is now almost concealed in the smoke at bottom center. Picture taken from Palos Verdes.

Fire Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting atmoaggie:

But the only actual surface obs embedded in that are:


Much of the derived surface winds in that plot are from mid-levels. The algorithms work great for a developed system...not so well for a TD, or less.


I wasn't posting for speeds. It display's the overall structure of the storm and brings light to the odd winds found in the SW quad. It's still attached to the wave.
wow. my "Ignore User" button is getting a serious workout today. I think I might pull a muscle or something ignoring people.
Quoting caneluver:


nope, all models are of no use at this time until a true COC is found. ECMWF has had it going NW the last two days and not the case. I live in Baton Rouge by the way......


I thought you lived in NC?
We are in the process (today actually) of getting new home insurance just in case....Although I don't think we are going to need it...or at least this year.
Quoting iceman55:
IKE they use old dat iknow


Then other models should use old dat, since it seems to be working for the Euro this year.
OK - Please correct me if I am wrong - The Less developed/organized the storm - the Less the Steering Currents affect it?

So in the case of 94 - The longer it takes to develop the better the chance to have an East Coast Landfall?

Afternoon, folks.

Did anyone ELSE see this on the AP???? I wonder if Oz is a little conspicuous in all his gear *giggles*

Hurricane chaser Brian Osburn of Pensacola, Florida, stood on a beach in high tech gear and protective padding while holding a plastic-encased, submersible Hi-definition video camera to take shots of the pounding surge and gusts.

"I think Cabo San Lucas is still in for a good blow," said Osburn, holding his waterproof microphone into the shrieking winds."
Quoting iceman55:
IKE nope .im from slidell la .thank u very much

Huh. Well, Howdy.

We had RobbieNDBC in here a lot, is from Slidell (back at LSU right now, I suspect).
And I work in Slidell @ Gause and Robert.
Quoting hurricane23:
Trof ,trof,trof...Recurve.

what u looking at a high is expected to build in so no,no,no,no
Quoting IKE:


You always say that when it shows a curve.

That's 3 runs in a row it shows the main threat to Bermuda.

I'm going with the ECMWF.
Quoting IKE:


You always say that when it shows a curve.

That's 3 runs in a row it shows the main threat to Bermuda.

I'm going with the ECMWF.


It was the ONLY model that nailed Bills early recurve I have to say the EURO has been the best models so far this year. GFS has been the worst. Even the CMC has done fairly well. It is way too early to say what is going to happen with 94L. It probably has a better chance than any other storms so far this year to impact the US at some point. The shear, speed of 94L, timing of the troughs, and where exactly HP builds in will make all the difference. I am surprised it has held up this well with the shear so far.
1013. xoverau
Quoting JupiterFL:


Why don't you just play it safe and bring her to Wisconsin now?


I offered a week ago. Even took time off work pre-emptively, but she said no. Her parents are both seriously ill and dependent on medical machinery--way too sick to travel. She wants to stay close to them, understandably. I think I'm going to need to point at a big storm on the way before she'll be persuaded. And yeah, even then she may not be willing to leave unless I show up at the door.
Quoting tornadofan:


Then other models should use old dat, since it seems to be working for the Euro this year.


I do live in NC (Jacksonville) to be exact, but have been here working in Baton Rouge for the last year.
Quoting Patrap:
What I always find kinda amusing here is the ones who are just Licking their collective chops for a Declaration of a TS,TD or Cane...?

Whats the frigging rush?

Are you that desperate for calamity to befall someone?

Most of the regular crowd come for info and to Banter the situ's..not to have peeing contest as to who sees what first or whatever.

If most folks gave 1 percent of their time here to Hurricane Prep instead of Hurricane BS,you'd be better off when a real threat develops and comes your way.

94L aint going nowhere fast today,tomorrow or the Next.

Once the G-4 Flys and sniffs and we get a good solution,..all this will fade like a Bad dream,..


So are you saying tha the storm is overhyped and will amount to not much of anything? I am just referring to your comments about all of this fading like a bad dream.
Do we have data from the HH??
Quoting btwntx08:

what u looking at a high is expected to build in so no,no,no,no


seriously....this is getting so confusing. The high is going to build ,it is going to weaken. The trough will be coming or maybe it isn't . I think if I was a met I would have one BIG headache all day long....
1021. NYX
Quoting IKE:


You and iceman55 have nothing to worry about with 94L. I don't either, living here in the Florida panhandle.


I can't help but to say go all the way back and take a look at the track of Ivan. Never say never.
Tropical Discussion International Desk


AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG/DEEP TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE USA...AND THIS PATTERN IS TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYS 05-07 AS SUCCESSIVE PERTURBATIONS AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
MID WEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR FORMATION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT INSTEAD...WHAT WE HAVE ARE
NARROW/FLAT RIDGES THAT MIGRATE/COLLAPSE A SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS EJECT ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS FAVORS
FORMATION OF TUTT(S) AND TUTT LOWS...THAT ARE TO CONTINUE
DOMINATING DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IF NOT FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE FAVORING A DISORGANIZED/MEANDERING
FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...WHICH ADDS TO THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE. AT 850 HPA...A STRONGER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N...WHICH FAVORS TRADES OF 10-15KT
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
Quoting btwntx08:

what u looking at a high is expected to build in so no,no,no,no


The only chance this stays of the eastcoast is if it stays as a tropical wave. Which by looking at just updated shear maps this thing is about to run into a wall of 30-40kt shear which should continue to keep it in check.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Some are going over the edge in terms of landfall predictions at this very early stage.....I am going to wait for NHC to issue their first 3-day track before I comment on where I think this one is going..... :)
well we could all do that but then what's the point?
Quoting TexasHurricane:


seriously....this is getting so confusing. The high is going to build ,it is going to weaken. The trough will be coming or maybe it isn't . I think if I was a met I would have one BIG headache all day long....


I don't think the *real* mets are as confused as this boards "mets" ;)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I wasn't posting for speeds. It display's the overall structure of the storm and brings light to the odd winds found in the SW quad. It's still attached to the wave.


The plot you posted, without any explanation, makes one think that the SW quad is populated by NW winds and looks like a true TS windfield. Doesn't jive with the surface obs and the HH obs.
I found it misleading, so I did what I did to make it clear to myself and others.
make SURE you read your exclusions and endorsements!!!!!!!!!!




Quoting TexasHurricane:
We are in the process (today actually) of getting new home insurance just in case....Although I don't think we are going to need it...or at least this year.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
We are in the process (today actually) of getting new home insurance just in case....Although I don't think we are going to need it...or at least this year.
Quoting iceman55:
all iknow is ECMWF. not go out sea.that how i feel .


yes exactly

Weatherunderground so easy a caveman can do it.
Quoting hurricane23:
Trof ,trof,trof...Recurve.


Has this already curved? If not, then its a "curve", not a "recurve".
Quoting NoNamePub:
OK - Please correct me if I am wrong - The Less developed/organized the storm - the Less the Steering Currents affect it?

So in the case of 94 - The longer it takes to develop the better the chance to have an East Coast Landfall?


Generally... the less developed a storm is, the more it is steered by low-level flows. As a storm becomes more developed, it becomes steered by higher (and more) layers.

As for projecting any kind of landfall, its entirely too early to project that. This could dissolve into an open wave and not impact anyone beyond a few thunderstorms.
1032. Guiness
I love how PR and the USVI get a potential storm watch and the BVI gets nothing!! Just not American enough here then..

Quoting kitkat954:


Has this already curved? If not, then its a "curve", not a "recurve".


lol not that again..
Ok I can't take it any longer. I feel left out. I think it's going to stay pretty weak until it hits the Gulf Stream. Then BAM, or GFS, it EXPLODES into a massive cat 12 storm. 390mph winds 45 storm surge from the Keys to New York. Massive destruction. Dogs and cats living together ......

Whew....

I'm feeling much better now ....
Quoting kitkat954:


Has this already curved? If not, then its a "curve", not a "recurve".


Rather large discussion about this on last night's blog, but the met. correct term is recurve, for reasons that will surely be discussed in a few moments.
Quoting hurricane23:


The only chance this stays of the eastcoast is if it stays as a tropical wave. Which by looking at just updated shear maps this thing is about to run into a wall of 30-40kt shear which should continue to keep it in check.

anticyclone over it
All of the intensity models on Wunderground's invest 94L links (GFDL, HWRF, SHIPS, ICON, IVCN) take 94L to hurricane strength during the next 120 hrs.
The only chance this stays of the eastcoast is if it stays as a tropical wave. Which by looking at just updated shear maps this thing is about to run into a wall of 30-40kt shear which should continue to keep it in check.
RIP
19:16:00Z 17.883N 56.283W 964.3 mb
(~ 28.48 inHg) 401 meters
(~ 1,316 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 110° at 49 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 56.3 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
42 knots*
(~ 48.3 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 41.2 knots* (~ 47.3 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 84.0%*


I called it!!
Quoting SavannahStorm:
19:16:00Z 17.883N 56.283W 964.3 mb
(~ 28.48 inHg) 401 meters
(~ 1,316 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 110° at 49 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 56.3 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
42 knots*
(~ 48.3 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 41.2 knots* (~ 47.3 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 84.0%*


I called it!!


Pretty decent winds lol
Quoting xoverau:


I offered a week ago. Even took time off work pre-emptively, but she said no. Her parents are both seriously ill and dependent on medical machinery--way too sick to travel. She wants to stay close to them, understandably. I think I'm going to need to point at a big storm on the way before she'll be persuaded. And yeah, even then she may not be willing to leave unless I show up at the door.


Maybe you could hook her up with homelesswanderer. He seems nice on the blog.
1044. fmbill
HPC has 94L getting sheered apart in the Bahamas, and as an open wave off the US southeast coast by day 7.

HPC Day 7
Great advice from adjuster 13 on endorsements and exclusions....know your policy and don,t expect your agent to dicipher it for you!
1047. K8eCane
someone just made this statement
"i dont think the real mets are as confused as this boards mets"

LOVE THAT STATEMENT its a keeper
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Rather large discussion about this on last night's blog, but the met. correct term is recurve, for reasons that will surely be discussed in a few moments.

lol .. OR everyone concerned can just google about it and see for themselves. "recurve" is appropriate. That's all I'm saying!
1049. P451
Finding heavier winds to the NE as expected.



Miami Herald reports on Tropical Wave.

Link

Forecasters take closer look at tropical wave
BY CURTIS MORGAN
cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com
A Hurricane hunter plane on Tuesday was investigating a large tropical wave that appeared to be strengthening as it neared the Leeward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center said the system had a good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Erika within a day or two.

At 2 p.m., the system was some 1,650 miles from Miami -- too far to predict whether or where it might make landfall -- and computer models varied widely on its future track. Some showed it turning north-northwest into the Atlantic, following Bill and Danny's path. Others took it more westward toward Puerto Rico, Haiti and -- potentially -- Florida.

At 2 p.m., the hurricane center said the system was about 225 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 10 mph. The system was producing gale force winds and heavy thunderstorms in some areas and forecasters said satellite pictures showed a developing center of circulation that defines tropical storms.

The center urged residents of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to closely monitor the storm.


Quoting TexasHurricane:


seriously....this is getting so confusing. The high is going to build ,it is going to weaken. The trough will be coming or maybe it isn't . I think if I was a met I would have one BIG headache all day long....

Keep in mind that a good half of the posts on here are just people spouting off whatever ill-informed creative thought comes to mind for track and influences. Unless someone posts actual scientific information with track and/or model data... I take what they say with a grain of salt.

Also, as a met, you would have the training and access to all the data you need to make a good forecast.
1052. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:


The only chance this stays of the eastcoast is if it stays as a tropical wave. Which by looking at just updated shear maps this thing is about to run into a wall of 30-40kt shear which should continue to keep it in check.


That I will agree with.
1053. P451
SSD Floater Imagery is almost two hours old! What is going on? Why are they lagging so badly?

1054. Patrap
Quoting xoverau:


I offered a week ago. Even took time off work pre-emptively, but she said no. Her parents are both seriously ill and dependent on medical machinery--way too sick to travel. She wants to stay close to them, understandably. I think I'm going to need to point at a big storm on the way before she'll be persuaded. And yeah, even then she may not be willing to leave unless I show up at the door.


If you do a lil search,you can find that the County has a registration for Those with Severe Medical Needs during a Evacuation.. Register now and be ready for any event..

Thats called being Pro-active and prepared. There isnt any threat to Fla ,now ..and use the grace of time to Make the Plans now.Just in case a Threat does develop this season.
Quoting K8eCane:
someone just made this statement
"i dont think the real mets are as confused as this boards mets"

LOVE THAT STATEMENT its a keeper


I made that statement ! I feel so worthy now.. lol
Quoting CaneWarning:
RIP

come on its no where near that
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
well we could all do that but then what's the point?

I don't think the *real* mets are as confused as this boards "mets" ;)


I think they are. They got the shear situation completely wrong today and the sophisticated dynamic models vary from a Cuban landfall to a recurve past Bermuda.
"Has this already curved? If not, then its a "curve", not a "recurve"."

I wish you had not pointed that out. I really enjoy laughing at all of the people in here that use the term "recurve". Hopefully they will continue to bring their humor to the blog.
Why won't the NHC just go ahead and name this Erika...its been red for the past couple of days now?

Then....

95L in the making.
Quoting atmoaggie:


The plot you posted, without any explanation, makes one think that the SW quad is populated by NW winds and looks like a true TS windfield. Doesn't jive with the surface obs and the HH obs.
I found it misleading, so I did what I did to make it clear to myself and others.


My apologies. Easy to assume sometimes.
Thanks Jeffs -
Appreciate the response.
This thing has 40+knot winds at the surface, and they may find even higher. Why not name it in the interest of public awareness and safety?
Quoting BrockBerlin:


yes exactly

Weatherunderground so easy a caveman can do it.


or better yet
Weatherunderground, so easy BrockBerlin can do it.
If its indeed 50kts you can wish Erika a nice trip with the dolphins.
Quoting iceman55:
wow 50mph


Actually 60 mph (50 knots)
Quoting iluvjess:
"Has this already curved? If not, then its a "curve", not a "recurve"."

I wish you had not pointed that out. I really enjoy laughing at all of the people in here that use the term "recurve". Hopefully they will continue to bring their humor to the blog.


Why in the world did you just make that post?
Quoting yonzabam:


I think they are. They got the shear situation completely wrong today and the sophisticated dynamic models vary from a Cuban landfall to a recurve past Bermuda.

Who's "they"?
Oz is going up the coast. Hopefully cams be back up soon.
1070. IKE
Quoting P451:
SSD Floater Imagery is almost two hours old! What is going on? Why are they lagging so badly?



They occasionally have problems...almost daily at SSD.
i dont agree on 23
Quoting captaincaneguru:
If the persistant long wave trough that has been over the E. conus much of the summer remains more or less in place, Erika will likely follow Bill and Danny and avoid Florida. But if the trough lifts out and the Atlantic ridge builds strongly SW'rd over the E. coast you have a scenario identical to Andrew in 1992. After meandering north of PR, Erika turns sharply west, undergoes explosive deepening under a gentle diffluent upper flow and is driven right into Florida. Remember, Andrew went from a 994mb storm down to 922mb in just 36 hours. Currently, the HPC shows the trough still holding 7 days from now. Will that change?
so in simple mind..this could by like an "andrew". hitting the east coast in 7 days
Quoting hurricane23:
If its indeed 50kts you can which Erika a nice trip with the dolphins.


Is there any storm this year you said will not recurve? Except for Claudette?
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Why in the world did you just make that post?
answer: ignorance
Does Dr. M make it in the next 4 minutes?
Quoting fmbill:
HPC has 94L getting sheered apart in the Bahamas, and as an open wave off the US southeast coast by day 7.

HPC Day 7


I posted that a while ago, actual information from mets who get paid to forecast.... it was basically ignored.
Quoting dolphingalrules:
so in simple mind..this could by like an "andrew". hitting the east coast in 7 days


He probably should not have used that storm name, because chances are an Andrew like intensity will not happen or not even come close, and the name Andrew will just make people scared.
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08

iceman55:what lol
Quoting jeffs713:

Keep in mind that a good half of the posts on here are just people spouting off whatever ill-informed creative thought comes to mind for track and influences. Unless someone posts actual scientific information with track and/or model data... I take what they say with a grain of salt.

Also, as a met, you would have the training and access to all the data you need to make a good forecast.


True....
Quoting Guiness:
I love how PR and the USVI get a potential storm watch and the BVI gets nothing!! Just not American enough here then..



BVI's have an alert statement as well. Go to
Antigua Met Link EDIT - Direct link included
Update from Xtremehurricanes.com:

CycloneOz has exceeded bandwidth limitations at the hotel wifi so the webcam is down. He will be travelling further up the coast to the point of actual landfall. Should be some stellar footage and a heckuva blow!
1083. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I posted that a while ago, actual information from mets who get paid to forecast.... it was basically ignored.


I didn't ignore it. I looked at it. Showed a beat up 94L approaching the SE as a wave. That is possible. I'm going with the ECMWF until it proves me wrong.
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Why in the world did you just make that post?
haha...lol u guys are funny
1085. xoverau
Quoting Patrap:


If you do a lil search,you can find that the County has a registration for Those with Severe Medical Needs during a Evacuation.. Register now and be ready for any event..

Thats called being Pro-active and prepared. There isnt any threat to Fla ,now ..and use the grace of time to Make the Plans now.Just in case a Threat does develop this season.


Excellent suggestion! Born up north, I'm not as familiar with hurricane prep as I should be. I'm searching her county in the other window as we speak. I think if we could guarantee safety for her family in the case of disaster, she'd be more willing to contemplate staying with me (heck, maybe even til the economy improves, though don't tell her that). And thank you for reminding me that right now there's no reason to stress out. When I saw the official track on some graphics I got a little scared, even though I know we've got days.
Quoting cyclonekid:
Why won't the NHC just go ahead and name this Erika...its been red for the past couple of days now?

Then....

95L in the making.
How about 96 97 98 geez one at a time please
"Why in the world did you just make that post?"

Because I find it ammusing to watch people demonstrate their ignorance. Storms don't recurve out to sea! They curve out to sea. If they then curved back towards the West (after curving out to sea, looped) that would more fit the definition of "recurve".
1091. NYX
Quoting fmbill:
HPC has 94L getting sheered apart in the Bahamas, and as an open wave off the US southeast coast by day 7.

HPC Day 7


Similar to what happened to Ana? We got lots of rain in South Fl and that's all which is fine with me.
Good afternoon!

I see models are curving 94L out to sea, is this because there is a trough coming?
Ive never had to bite my tongue more on this blog than today.
I am annoyed. Watching the radar out of tampa bay all day. Absolutely sure my softball game would be rained out. But it seems the rain is drying up before it hits the the ground. Guess we will be playing.
1096. P451
Best I could overlay - given the SSDs are almost 2 hours lagging.

This sat image matches up to within 15 minutes of the recon hitting the center.

19:26:30Z 18.067N 56.300W 964.5 mb
(~ 28.48 inHg) 404 meters
(~ 1,325 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 103° at 50 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 57.5 mph) 21.2°C
(~ 70.2°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 52 knots
(~ 59.8 mph)
43 knots*
(~ 49.4 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 41.3 knots* (~ 47.5 mph*)
Tropical Storm*


52 knots and rising!

I don't think there's even a classification for what this system is.
Quoting iluvjess:
"Why in the world did you just make that post?"

Because I find it ammusing to watch people demonstrate their ignorance. Storms don't recurve out to sea! They curve out to sea. If they then curved back towards the West (after curving out to sea, looped) that would more fit the definition of "recurve".

Rather than continue to show your ignorance (and I mean that in a nice way) why don't you instead google it for hurricanes and such and find out for yourself.
1099. sfranz
Photos from the Big Meadow fire near Yosemite. These were taken by a friend of mine who lives and works in the park:

http://littleredtent.net/LRTblog/

Also, a close-up of a satellite shot of the Big Meadow fire:

http://www.panix.com/~remus/phototemp/quickyosemite_20090829.jpg


Quoting iceman55:
sup btwntx08

what u doin lol
Quoting canesrule1:
Good afternoon!

I see models are curving 94L out to sea, is this because there is a trough coming?


lmao

ok I'm out for a while.. happy huntng people!
seriously....this is getting so confusing. The high is going to build ,it is going to weaken. The trough will be coming or maybe it isn't . I think if I was a met I would have one BIG headache all day long....

NOW You've caught up with me and I ben here all day. LOL. :)
1103. Guiness
Quoting JadeInAntigua:


BVI's have an alert statement as well. Go to
Antigua Met Link Click on "Bulletins" in the navbar on the right. Site's in frames so couldn't direct link sorry.


Ah thanks very much...I didn't know that existed
1104. fmbill
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I posted that a while ago, actual information from mets who get paid to forecast.... it was basically ignored.


My briefing to management this morning basically was...

if it is a strong storm = goes out to sea, no problem for us;

if a weak tore-up storm = comes right to us, but who cares - it's a weak tore-up storm.

Quoting IKE:


I didn't ignore it. I looked at it. Showed a beat up 94L approaching the SE as a wave. That is possible. I'm going with the ECMWF until it proves me wrong.


I should have been clearer, by saying "most". I know you look at quite a lot.
Quoting NoNamePub:
OK - Please correct me if I am wrong - The Less developed/organized the storm - the Less the Steering Currents affect it?

So in the case of 94 - The longer it takes to develop the better the chance to have an East Coast Landfall?



Just depends on what steering you're talking about; there are steering currents at all levels, but in general, yes; an underdeveloped storm will be effected less than a fully developed monster. A hurricane has no steering of it's own, really. Coriolis wants it tend poleward (N), but other than that it's the high ridging or low troffing that effects it's track
Quoting iluvjess:


Because I find it amusing to demonstrate my ignorance.


Fixed it for you.
1108. fmbill
Quoting homelesswanderer:
seriously....this is getting so confusing. The high is going to build ,it is going to weaken. The trough will be coming or maybe it isn't . I think if I was a met I would have one BIG headache all day long....

NOW You've caught up with me and I ben here all day. LOL. :)


Now you're getting it!!!

Welcome to the blog. LOL!
Quoting canesrule1:
Good afternoon!

I see models are curving 94L out to sea, is this because there is a trough coming?

only a couple show it
Hurricane hunters finding 50 MPH winds on the northeast quadrant as expected.

Currently moving WNW, getting sheared too:

BajaALemt, how are you dear?
Quoting homelesswanderer:
seriously....this is getting so confusing. The high is going to build ,it is going to weaken. The trough will be coming or maybe it isn't . I think if I was a met I would have one BIG headache all day long....

NOW You've caught up with me and I ben here all day. LOL. :)


:)
Shears about 25 knots and rising.

Quoting rwdobson:


Fixed it for you.
bravo!
Jerry Springer needs to book this blog on his show.
Quoting iluvjess:
"Why in the world did you just make that post?"

Because I find it ammusing to watch people demonstrate their ignorance. Storms don't recurve out to sea! They curve out to sea. If they then curved back towards the West (after curving out to sea, looped) that would more fit the definition of "recurve".

Ummm, think met terminology. Not always in line with your understanding of english.
Systems that were heading west that transition to north and then east have recurved.
Quoting btwntx08:

only a couple show it
true
Quoting Guiness:


Ah thanks very much...I didn't know that existed


No problem and I updated the link I provided since you quoted me so it's now direct to the bulletin.
1120. quante
This is what Miami NWS says:

CONCERNING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOME 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS (INVEST AL94 AS DESIGNATED BY NHC)...THE GFS STILL
DOESN`T LIKE THIS FEATURE AND TRACKS IT AS AN OPEN WAVE REACHING THE SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT NHC THINKING
IS THAT A STORM MAY FORM FROM THIS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL...
IT`S A LONG WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS WEATHER
PATTERN EVOLVES.
NHC have invest 94L at 50mph,winds still ,no name? Ada Monzon our local met. said that a TS Watch will be issue at 5:OO for Puerto Rico and the VI, BVI follow their government decisions.
Quoting fmbill:


My briefing to management this morning basically was...

if it is a strong storm = goes out to sea, no problem for us;

if a weak tore-up storm = comes right to us, but who cares - it's a weak tore-up storm.



Hopefully you threw in a "conditions could change" and will continue to monitor.
1123. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I should have been clearer, by saying "most". I know you look at quite a lot.


I look at 90% of what you post. You post some of the most important info on here.
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


lol not that again..
Quoting iluvjess:
"Has this already curved? If not, then its a "curve", not a "recurve"."

I wish you had not pointed that out. I really enjoy laughing at all of the people in here that use the term "recurve". Hopefully they will continue to bring their humor to the blog.
i like the word bend .it is a better descriptive word for this event(s).....but that's just me
Quoting IKE:


I look at 90% of what you post. You post some of the most important info on here.


You got that right...
Quoting P451:
SSD Floater Imagery is almost two hours old! What is going on? Why are they lagging so badly?



Firsst advisory of TS Erika comming up. they ussually block SSD in situation like this.
1129. fmbill
Has anyone noticed that school let out for the day?
1130. Prgal
at200512
Invest 94
Wind: 50 MPH — Location: 16.8 57.2W — Movement: WNW
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
If 94L gets upgraded with a spontaneous advisory or at 5 PM, it is highly likely to have winds in the 50 to 55 MPH range.
1132. IKE
Quoting marknmelb:
Jerry Springer needs to book this blog on his show.


It is amusing. Sometimes I just shutup and lurk. It's better than watching most of TV nowadays.
Anyone see a spin in the ITZ around 7N-37W..

let me know?
Man, could you imagine if the we had to forecast these hurricanes for real?.... It would change everyday or maybe even every hour...LOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

DISCUSSION...

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY
AND THEN BACK NORTH LATER FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST...MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE BY THE WEEKEND AND RIDGING
WILL STRENGTHEN AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS BY SUNDAY. POPS WILL
DECREASE EACH DAY AND WILL BE MORE LIKE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

CONCERNING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOME 260 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS (INVEST AL94 AS DESIGNATED BY NHC)...THE GFS STILL
DOESN`T LIKE THIS FEATURE AND TRACKS IT AS AN OPEN WAVE REACHING
THE SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT NHC THINKING
IS THAT A STORM MAY FORM FROM THIS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL...
IT`S A LONG WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS WEATHER
PATTERN EVOLVES.

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Shears about 25 knots and rising.



Indeed which could be a blessing for those wanting a westerly track.
Quoting canesrule1:
If 94L gets upgraded with a spontaneous advisory or at 5 PM, it is highly likely to have winds in the 50 to 55 MPH range.


There is no 55mph winds anymore.


It goes from 50mph to 60 mph.
1139. jipmg
I think our LOW well stengthen come night time, and finally be classified, the shear is light, and the low is moving towards the WNW at around 10mph based on satellite so its slowed down.. meaning better for development
Quoting IKE:


I look at 90% of what you post. You post some of the most important info on here.


Agree.
1141. IKE
Quoting iluvjess:
"Good afternoon!

I see models are curving 94L out to sea, is this because there is a trough coming?"

Correct grammar... "curve" out to sea. Not recurve out to sea. Has to curve once before it can "recurve".


I looked up the word recurve on wordweb.

Here's the definition>>>"Curve or bend (something) back or down".....

That's what the ECMWF shows happening to 94L.
Quoting hurricane23:


Indeed which could be a blessing for those wanting a westerly track.



Bad thing for them is that there wont be much of a storm left.
1144. WXHEAD
Quoting jeffs713:

Keep in mind that a good half of the posts on here are just people spouting off whatever ill-informed creative thought comes to mind for track and influences. Unless someone posts actual scientific information with track and/or model data... I take what they say with a grain of salt.

Also, as a met, you would have the training and access to all the data you need to make a good forecast.


Yeah, after all, it's not a real TD or TS until NHC says it is, right? Just like I'm not ugly (no matter what anyone says) until a government "ugly" agency says I am. Right? Then I would have all the benefits of being declared ugly, even though I was already ugly. You get the idea.
As far as a big storm hitting economically depressed Florida (where I live), I think it would help the economy a little. A pinata (insurance companies) a little kid with a big stick (the next hurricane). Hopefully we have all learned from Katrina (even though most areas of Florida are above sea level)and most residents know how to get out of the way of the more hazardous storms, so maybe (since we have no say in where the storms will go) we can look at the bright side. (FEMA benefits notwithstanding) A camping trip without the trip and no A/C for a few days.
Bring it on!
1145. fmbill
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Hopefully you threw in a "conditions could change" and will continue to monitor.


Always.

But we really don't implement our plans until we are in the NHC's cone.

That way if we prepare and nothing happens, we were just being prudent.

But, if we react on a hunch, or fail to act on NHC's cone...bad things can happen and you-know-who get in lots of trouble.

Latest Observation:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 19:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 19:24Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.1N 56.2W
Location: 648 miles (1043 km) to the E (92°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 420 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 46 knots (From the E at ~ 52.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 17°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1011 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 120° at 40 knots (From the ESE at ~ 46.0 mph)
1147. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Man, could you imagine if the we had to forecast these hurricanes for real?.... It would change everyday or maybe even every hour...LOL


I couldn't do the job. It would drive me crazy.
Quoting hurricane23:
If its indeed 50kts you can wish Erika a nice trip with the dolphins.


...to the Super Bowl?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There is no 55mph winds anymore.


It goes from 50mph to 60 mph.


Yes but when he was getting his met degree they did have 55mph. Way back in the day...
Quoting iceman55:
atmoaggie u work in slidell la huh

Yep. Live in Covington.

Back L8R, y'all.
I think that area above PR/Bahamas is trying to develop into something.

GOM looks active.
Quoting fmbill:
Has anyone noticed that school let out for the day?


like clock work 2;30!!
Quoting hurricane23:


Indeed which could be a blessing for those wanting a westerly track.



Blessing? What happens if we get a Humburto right off the coast. Waters are hot in the Bahama's, no thanks.
Quoting MiamiHurricane80:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

DISCUSSION...

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY
AND THEN BACK NORTH LATER FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST...MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE BY THE WEEKEND AND RIDGING
WILL STRENGTHEN AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS BY SUNDAY. POPS WILL
DECREASE EACH DAY AND WILL BE MORE LIKE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

CONCERNING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOME 260 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS (INVEST AL94 AS DESIGNATED BY NHC)...THE GFS STILL
DOESN`T LIKE THIS FEATURE AND TRACKS IT AS AN OPEN WAVE REACHING
THE SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT NHC THINKING
IS THAT A STORM MAY FORM FROM THIS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL...
IT`S A LONG WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS WEATHER
PATTERN EVOLVES.

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
According to this Florida and the rest of the Eastern U.S coast is in danger.
The proper meteorlogical term for a tropical cyclone that curves away from the eastcoast of the US is "recurve or recurvature". Is it redundant? I say yes. But so what? You are clearly showing your ignorance though. But then again...So what?
Quoting JupiterFL:


Yes but when he was getting his met degree they did have 55mph. Way back in the day...


Lol

Didnt know you could get a Met degree in elementary school.
1157. PSL2007
I have always learned a great deal from this log with its wealth of information. I only wish I could retire this avatar; my son asked me to dpownload it for goofs over 1 year ago; boy do I regret it, lol.
Is the sheer in the GOM suppose to stick around for the remaining of the season or is it suppose to be more favorable during September? Just curious,seems like there has been a lot of sheer in the GOM this season..
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Blessing? What happens if we get a Humburto right off the coast. Waters are hot in the Bahama's, no thanks.


Ah! Sorry cane not this season. Just to many damn trofs.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Yes but when he was getting his met degree they did have 55mph. Way back in the day...
WOW! that is very sad, you r sooooo sarcastic... you r #27.
1162. P451
Quoting antonio28:


Firsst advisory of TS Erika comming up. they ussually block SSD in situation like this.


Truth? Thanks!

...annoying to say the least...

Time for a timeout in watching this train wreck.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Yes but when he was getting his met degree they did have 55mph. Way back in the day...

rofl.

like i said yesterday, if he's a met, i'm max mayfield.
Quoting fmbill:


Always.

But we really don't implement our plans until we are in the NHC's cone.

That way if we prepare and nothing happens, we were just being prudent.

But, if we react on a hunch, or fail to act on NHC's cone...bad things can happen and you-know-who bet in lots of trouble.



My personal plan is similar. Five day cone..start double checking. Three day cone..action.
Quoting iluvjess:
"Good afternoon!

I see models are curving 94L out to sea, is this because there is a trough coming?"

Correct grammar... "curve" out to sea. Not recurve out to sea. Has to curve once before it can "recurve".


You people kill me... How bout the models that dont curve out to sea?
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Is the sheer in the GOM suppose to stick around for the remaining of the season or is it suppose to be more favorable during September? Just curious,seems like there has been a lot of sheer in the GOM this season..


Shear...

A sheer is what you cut sheep with.
the future of 94L is as uncertain as the future of climate change
Time: 19:22:00Z
Coordinates: 18.1N 56.05W
Acft. Static Air Press: 964.8 mb (~ 28.49 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 408 meters (~ 1,339 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.3 mb (~ 29.86 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 114° at 50 knots (From the ESE at ~ 57.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.2°C (~ 68.4°F)
Dew Pt: 17.1°C (~ 62.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 knots* (~ 48.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
1161:he's kidding
"I looked up the word recurve on wordweb.

Here's the definition>>>"Curve or bend (something) back or down".....

That's what the ECMWF shows happening to 94L."

The ECMF shows a curve. Think about it like a a standard archery bow. An standard archery bow is curved, correct? Thats the shape the ECMF is showing. Now, if you were to bend the top end of the archery bow "down" (as defined above), towards the opposite end, now that my friend is defined as a recurve.
Quoting fmbill:


Now you're getting it!!!

Welcome to the blog. LOL!


LOL.
Quoting Weather456:
the future of 94L is as uncertain as the future of climate change


Thank you Confucius
From what I can gather any notion of 94L getting ripped apart by shear is doubtful in the near furure. The anti cyclone is still in place and shear while affecting is not dismanteling the system. As long as the anti cyclone is still in place and the shear remains intact expect 94L to remain at status quo in the near future.
1175. fmbill
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


My personal plan is similar. Five day cone..start double checking. Three day cone..action.


I wish all our citizens were as consciencious as you. It would make my job a lot easier.
Quoting caneluver:


You people kill me... How bout the models that dont curve out to sea?
whatever, Im sorry, sheeesh... I ask a darn question and "Your killing me", oh please!
South florida is in danger all summer long from daytime thunderstorms.NHC should be thinking of issueing open wave watches for the southeast. Lets see what lefts of it after it crosses that shear zone its about move through.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


My personal plan is similar. Five day cone..start double checking. Three day cone..action.
my plan five day cone in my car already to jacksonville.. 3 day cone in alaska..not taking any chances..
I think I mentioned this morning that when the HHs went out they would find a 50mph TS.
1182. Acorna
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Shear...

A sheer is what you cut sheep with.
XD Arguably, the clouds do look like sheep wool :P
would a meteorologist ask this?

39. canesrule1 11:42 AM EDT on August 18, 2009
the lower the pressure of the high is the stronger it is or vice-versa?
Quoting canesrule1:
According to this Florida and the rest of the Eastern U.S coast is in danger.

arent you from miami? or was it north carolina? or another gulf state?
TS Erika will be named at 5:00 est with winds of 50 mph heading WNW
Quoting btwntx08:
1161:he's kidding
I don't care. I don't want to see his posts.
Good afternoon folks:

This the trough that the ECMWF expects to lift invest 94L out, not the current trough. It is a slightly amplified longwave trough that is expected to emerge of the canadian eastern maritime seaboard by Tuesday.

12Z ECMWF Tuesday



12Z gfs




The GFS expects the trough to be a slightly weaker. If we analyze further, it becomes evident that it is all about that timing and the strength of this weak longwave trough. The GFS and the CMC expects this system to move faster west than the ECMWF, thus, dodging most of the weakness. On the other hand if the trough is inadequate, it would still miss it. Even if the GFS were to slow it down in the 12Z run, it would still not go out to sea, because the trough is too weak.


Let's just wait and see
"Recurve" it's a met thing....you wouldn't understand it...
Invest 94 winds 50 mph...wow.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Hooked on Weather, worked for me!


LOL!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Lol

Didnt know you could get a Met degree in elementary school.
ignore #28
Marine Weather Discussion


LOW PRES CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
ZONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 65W LATE FRI AND TRACK ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE
GFS IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER THE LOW
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

SURFACE 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 16N57W MOVING NW. THE
LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE LOW ARE OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE
WITH A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGHER PRES TO
THE N. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE JUST TO THE N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. OTHERWISE 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 5-10 KT WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN.
Quoting palmbaywhoo:

arent you from miami? or was it north carolina? or another gulf state?
Miami
57 mph winds and no closed circulation.


What a weird year this has been.
23 has changed alot don't trust him no more
I don't get all this hampering on "west" and "hitting florida". Who has exactly said any of this in the last hour?
They didn't find a 50mph TS. They found a 60mph invest.
1199. scla08
Quoting canesrule1:
ignore #28


Announcing your ignore list will get you banned.

1201. IKE
Quoting iluvjess:
"I looked up the word recurve on wordweb.

Here's the definition>>>"Curve or bend (something) back or down".....

That's what the ECMWF shows happening to 94L."

The ECMF shows a curve. Think about it like a a standard archery bow. An standard archery bow is curved, correct? Thats the shape the ECMF is showing. Now, if you were to bend the top end of the archery bow "down" (as defined above), towards the opposite end, now that my friend is defined as a recurve.



"Kerry Emanuel in the Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology expands on the details of hurricane behavior:

"Hurricanes almost always form over ocean water warmer than about 80 degrees F. in a belt of generally east-to-west flow called the trade winds. They move westward with the trade winds and also drift slowly poleward. Eventually, if they last long enough, they will drift poleward far enough to enter the belt of westerly winds that prevails in middle latitudes. When this happens, the hurricanes 'recurve' toward the east and thereafter follow paths that are generally both eastward and poleward."....


From...Link

Google searched hurricanes that recurve and it found Results 1 - 10 of about 12,900 for hurricanes that recurve. (0.21 seconds)
Quoting hurricane23:


Ah! Sorry cane not this season. Just to many damn trofs.


I swear half of things I say go right over your head, lol.
Quoting FloridaTigers:
I don't get all this hampering on "west" and "hitting florida". Who has exactly said any of this in the last hour?


the usual Flordiacasters.
Quoting futuremet:
Good afternoon folks:

This the trough that the ECMWF expects to lift invest 94L out, not the current trough. It is a slightly amplified longwave trough that is expected to emerge of the canadian eastern maritime seaboard by Tuesday.

12Z ECMWF Tuesday



12Z gfs




The GFS expects the trough to be a slightly weaker. If we analyze further, it becomes evident that it is all about that timing and the strength of this weak longwave trough. The GFS and the CMC expects this system to move faster west than the ECMWF, thus, dodging most of the weakness. On the other hand if the trough is inadequate, it would still miss it. Even if the GFS were to slow it down in the 12Z run, it would still not go out to sea, because the trough is too weak.


Let's just wait and see


At least when school lets out we get Futuremet and Drak. Thanks to the both of you for being great bloggers and amateur weathermen.
94L looks like it is struggling bad. I wonder for how long before it intensifies if it does.
Quoting futuremet:
Good afternoon folks:

This the trough that the ECMWF expects to lift invest 94L out, not the current trough. It is a slightly amplified longwave trough that is expected to emerge of the canadian eastern maritime seaboard by Tuesday.

12Z ECMWF Tuesday



12Z gfs




The GFS expects the trough to be a slightly weaker. If we analyze further, it becomes evident that it is all about that timing and the strength of this weak longwave trough. The GFS and the CMC expects this system to move faster west than the ECMWF, thus, dodging most of the weakness. On the other hand if the trough is inadequate, it would still miss it. Even if the GFS were to slow it down in the 12Z run, it would still not go out to sea, because the trough is too weak.


Let's just wait and see


I hear you Futuremet.. That what a-lot of these bloggers don't understand. Thanks for clearing that issue up.
Quoting scla08:


Looks somewhat similar to Danny.

Large elongated center to the west of the convection.
Quoting btwntx08:
23 has changed alot don't trust him no more
who happens to be "23"?
Quoting btwntx08:
23 has changed alot don't trust him no more


Changed? You dont even know me. Alright be back later gonna get some water at publix.
Thanks Ike you posted what eventually had to be posted...
Futuremet

Good afternoon to you...I always appreciate your informative post!
nevermind
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Shear...

A sheer is what you cut sheep with.


Ha Ha funny....so I mispelled....Can I please get an answer?
Quoting btwntx08:
23 has changed alot don't trust him no more

because he doesn't say what you want to hear?

i don't know why people get all upset when people actually use facts to back up their statements instead of "gut feelings" and the like. it's quite funny.

Quoting caneluver:


I here you Futuremet.. That what a-lot of these bloggers don't understand. Thanks for clearing that issue up.
NEW BLOG GANG!
The 12z GFS has a thunderstorm moving through the bahamas.
self-deleted to place on the next blot
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Looks somewhat similar to Danny.

Large elongated center to the west of the convection.
u r not on my ignore list, i took u off, but if u continue to be an a** you will be on my ignore list.
1220. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:
The 12z GFS has a thunderstorm moving through the bahamas.


LOL!
Quoting hurricane23:



Ah! Sorry cane not this season. Just to many damn trofs.
you must be a crow eater 23. you havent been in here all day like the rest us and you come in here and be like well she isnt doing this or that. know the facts first bro or get ya plate ready. i dont see anymore troughs.
Quoting JupiterFL:


At least when school lets out we get Futuremet and Drak. Thanks to the both of you for being great bloggers and amateur weathermen.
Yes keep up the good work....
new blog!!!
Quoting futurenavymet:
you must be a crow eater 23. you havent been in here all day like the rest us and you come in here and be like well she isnt doing this or that. know the facts first bro or get ya plate ready. i dont see anymore troughs.


Get em. He does this all the time and is never right
why do people still compare latest storms to past storms? what is the chance of having the same atmosphere conditions as it did 50 years ago..I never understood that..I never see max mayfield ever mention.."we are basing the track on hurricane of 1886"
1226. slavp
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Marine Weather Discussion


LOW PRES CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
ZONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 65W LATE FRI AND TRACK ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE
GFS IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER THE LOW
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

SURFACE 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 16N57W MOVING NW. THE
LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE LOW ARE OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE
WITH A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGHER PRES TO
THE N. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE JUST TO THE N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND MOVE W OF THE AREA BY FRI. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. OTHERWISE 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 5-10 KT WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN.
Do they expect it to travel that far west that they mention the shear in the NW Carribean?
Look at that fantastic wave with massive spin over Africa around 5W...looks better thna it was 6 hours ago..
Should be exiting Africa next day or so...

anybody like to comment on that one if you care to take a break from 94L :)
Quoting hurricane23:


Changed? You dont even know me. Alright be back later gonna get some water at publix.

You haven't changed one bit; you've always been very informative.
1229. Greyelf
.
Quoting justalurker:
why do people still compare latest storms to past storms? what is the chance of having the same atmosphere conditions as it did 50 years ago..I never understood that..I never see max mayfield ever mention.."we are basing the track on hurricane of 1886"

It's called climatology, such as the Herbert Box.
Quoting Chiggy007:
Look at that fantastic wave with massive spin over Africa around 5W...looks better thna it was 6 hours ago..
Should be exiting Africa next day or so...

anybody like to comment on that one if you care to take a break from 94L :)

Me, I am bored already of 94L.I always say this "If your going to form, form already but if your going to die just dissipate already."
1232. guygee
Quoting kitkat954:


Has this already curved? If not, then its a "curve", not a "recurve".


How about this:

Not Curving: Embedded in the Easterlies
Curving: Turning north around the subtropical high.
Recurving: Embedded in the Westerlies.
UnRecurving: Left behind by the trough and being driven W/SW by the building high.
ReReCurving: Being picked up by the next trough.
ReverseCurving: Running into South America.

I love this place!
1233. juniort
hello everyone, is it my imagination or has Erika drifted southward, or is it expanding it area of convection?