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Hurricane Iselle Lashing Hawaii's Big Island With Heavy Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:31 AM GMT on August 08, 2014

Hurricane warnings continue for the Big Island as Hurricane Iselle closes in as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters at 22:55 UTC Thursday (6:55 pm EDT or 12:55 HST) found the pressure had risen to 992 mb, up 7 mb since this morning. They also noted that the eyewall had collapsed, so Iselle is weakening. However, this weakening had yet to translate to a reduction in the maximum sustained surface winds, which were still 75 - 80 mph during their last two passes through the center. Thursday afternoon satellite images showed that Iselle's eyewall thunderstorms continued to be very vigorous with cold cloud tops. The outer spiral bands of Iselle were lashing the Big Island, as seen on Hawaii radar.


Figure 1. Radar image from the South Hawaii radar showing the outer spiral bands of Hurricane Iselle affecting the Big Island. The North Hawaii radar will be intermittent today, due to high winds blowing the radome hatch open, according to the NWS.

Forecast for Iselle
There isn't much time for Iselle to change much before the center makes landfall on the Big Island, which should occur near 10 pm HST (4 am EDT.) Iselle's top winds at landfall will likely be between 65 - 75 mph. The main threat from Iselle will be heavy rains leading to flash flooding and mudslides. The Thursday morning 12Z run of the GFDL model predicted that Iselle would dump widespread rains of 4 - 8" over the islands, with some regions seeing 8 - 16". Wind damage is also a concern from Iselle; the 5 pm EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast from Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) gave Hilo on the Big Island a 94% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 12% chance of hurricane-force winds. These odds were 35% and 0%, respectively, for Honolulu. On the higher terrain of the islands, winds will be up to 30% stronger than what is observed at sea level. High surf of 10 - 20' and higher will also pound the islands, causing erosion problems and coastal flooding. Since accurate landfall records began in 1949, only one tropical storm (an unnamed storm in 1958) and no hurricanes have ever hit the Big Island.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Julio from 19:30 UTC (3:30 pm EDT) August 7, 2014. At the time, Julio was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Category 2 Hurricane Julio expected to skirt Hawaii
Hawaii's other hurricane threat is Hurricane Julio, which remained a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds at 5 pm EDT on Thursday, but appears to be intensifying. Satellite loops show that Julio has maintained a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms and well-formed eye. The storm should be able to take advantage of light to moderate wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures near 26°C and maintain at least Category 2 status until Friday, when a slow weakening trend should begin. With the notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecast a direct hit on Kauai, the 12Z (8 am EDT) Thursday runs of our top track models predicted that the center of Julio would pass 50 - 200 miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. On this path, Julio's core of heavy rains and wind would miss the islands, and high surf would be the main impact of the storm. The edge of Julio's cone of uncertainly for Sunday still lies over the islands, so we cannot yet be confident of this track, but at this time it appears that Hawaii will avoid torrential rains from Julio falling upon soils already saturated by Iselle. The 5 pm EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave Honolulu a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph from Julio, and a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds.


Figure 3. Webcam view from the top of Mauna Kea at 1:40 pm HST August 7, 2014, as the rains from Hurricane Iselle were falling. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center.

The winds at 13,000 feet on Mauna Kea
The weather on top of the highest point in Hawaii, the Big Island's Mauna Kea, elevation 13,796' (4,205 m), will be interesting to follow as Iselle makes landfall. Winds have risen steadily today, and were 25 mph, gusting to 40 mph, at 2:10 pm HST (8:10 pm EDT) at the University of Hawaii 88" telescope (UH88.) There are six anemometers reporting winds on top of Mauna Kea today, but beware of the data from the Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). The Mauna Kea webcam page says that those winds are highly exaggerated due to location of the anemometer tower between two large telescope domes. You can see this tower on Google Maps.

If the center of Iselle passes directly over Mauna Kea, the mountain may set a new record for highest location ever to encounter a direct hit by a tropical storm or hurricane. There are no peaks in the Caribbean as high as Mauna Kea--the highest being Pico Duarte in the Dominican Republic, at 10,161' (3,098 meters). Taiwan's highest point is Yu Shan (Jade Mountain) at 12,963' (3,952 meters). In the Indian Ocean, no tropical cyclone has ever come close to reaching the Himalayas.  The closest approach was either Aila (2009) or an unnamed storm in 1925, both of which only reached maximum elevations of about 400 meters before dissipating--near Mal Bazar, India and Sanischare, Nepal, respectively. ‪Pico de Orizaba (18,486', 5,636 meters) in Mexico, about 70 miles west of Veracruz, had Hurricane Karl (2010) pass within 25 miles of the peak (to the south) as a Category 2 storm, according to the ‪NOAA/CSC hurricane database. However,‬ I doubt the peak experienced the calm of the eye. Thanks go to Phil Klotzbach, Will Komaromi, and Brad Barrett for helping with these stats.

Links
Weather on Mauna Kea
Live stream from KHON2 TV in Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2-km resolution WRF model output from the University of Hawaii for Hawaii
Storm surge maps for Oahu
Storm info from Tropical Tidbits
NWS Honolulu

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters....
It blows my mind thinking the origins of this thing can be traced all the way back to TD2 in the Atlantic. Now Genevieve's a Super Typhoon.

EDIT -- that's Iselle, not Genevieve. Sorry for the misinformation.
Darn you Pedley I wanted to say 1st lol.Thanks Doc.I think Hawaii is going to handle this pretty well.I mean who could forget Iniki?.
center might go just south of Hilo based on satellite trends.
Major hurricane #5 for the East Pacific:

EP, 10, 2014080800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1384W, 100, 966, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,

Quoting 2. CybrTeddy:

It blows my mind thinking the origins of this thing can be traced all the way back to TD2 in the Atlantic. Now Genevieve's a Super Typhoon.



Kyle, the wave that spawned TD2 led to the formation of Iselle, not Genevieve.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Looking up @ Hurricane Elena's Eye as it passes over Biloxi, Gulfport area, Sept 1985.

Thank you Dr. M.
I was thinking the same thing today about the confluence of a hurricane eye with the 2 volcanic mountains.
I believe this will be the first time we've seen a cyclone of this strength pass this close, or possibly directly over, an active volcano spewing gases.
Thank you Dr Masters.


Aloha Hawaii, my name is Iselle

Just the fringes coming in.......hope there is not too much runoff/flooding.

Thanks for the update Doc. Hawaii definitely isn't taking this hurricane lightly, as shown by the videos of residents stocking up and boarding up their homes. I gotta say I'm surprised Iselle has managed to hold herself together this well, it wouldn't surprise me if it's still a hurricane at landfall on the Big Island. Hopefully flooding doesn't turn out to be too bad.

by Levi Cowan %u200FTropicalTidbits
11-15 day GEFS depicting low heights in the tropical Atlantic. Would be the first time this hurricane season




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BudMIIgCYAA6RlT.png:l arge
From Doc's entry:

What a sight it would be (and a crazy thing to do) to stand on the peak of a 3,000 meter mountain inside the eye of a hurricane!

Yes sir. It would be a hoot!
Thanks for the update.
Quoting 7. Patrap:

Looking up @ Hurricane Elena's Eye as it passes over Biloxi, Gulfport area, Sept 1985.




Cool pic Pat! I flew over Elena on a flight from Ft Myers to Dallas after a week vacation in Florida...... the pilot came on intercom and pointed it out.
Repost from last blog

I'm following this PWS in Pahoa now, as it looks like that location may take a direct hit. It will be interesting to see the conditions there as Iselle approaches.

Pahoa
The Eye of the Hurricane now coming into the Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity Modes view..as it nears the Big Island closer by the minute.


20. OCF
Quoting CosmicEvents:
>I believe this will be the first time we've seen a cyclone of this strength pass this close, or possibly directly over, an active volcano spewing gases.

Wasn't there a typhoon passing over Luzon just as Mt. Pinatubo was having its giant eruption?
Complete lack of intense convection; must be the stability of the environment.

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

I am in 1 block from the ocean near Pahoa. Winds are 20kts and waves are 6'-10'. The storm is still a ways away and we're at 2.15" of rain so far.
Looks like the plane it beating a hasty retreat. Got our moneys worth on the flight.
My thoughts to those being affected by Iselle in Hawaii. I'm off to bed now, but hope when I wake up that the damage from the storm will be minimal and there will not be any loss of life.
Quoting 23. mountainwx:

I am in 1 block from the ocean near Pahoa. Winds are 20kts and waves are 6'-10'. The storm is still a ways away and we're at 2.15" of rain so far.


You've got wunderground mail!
Quoting 14. beell:

From Doc's entry:

What a sight it would be (and a crazy thing to do) to stand on the peak of a 3,000 meter mountain inside the eye of a hurricane!

Yes sir. It would be a hoot!
Thanks for the update.


If we had extra time, we could pool money and send Kori on up there with a camera. I'm sure he'll do it. Plus, tropical paradise right below when he comes back (but I wouldn't fund that part). :P
Quoting Stoopid1:
Repost from last blog

I'm following this PWS in Pahoa now, as it looks like that location may take a direct hit. It will be interesting to see the conditions there as Iselle approaches.

Pahoa
As long as this station continues to report there's power and an internet connection. In that respect, it's a good thing regardless of what else happens.
Quoting 12. Patrap:




On the loop, it looks like a band of orographic rainfall just SW of the circle with cross in it. There is a 4,000 foot mountain/volcano right at that location.
watching this tropical wave tonight
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Kyle, the wave that spawned TD2 led to the formation of Iselle, not Genevieve.




:P


First light this morning with Iselle on the horizon. This is south of Hilo.
Quoting Astrometeor:


If we had extra time, we could pool money and send Kori on up there with a camera. I'm sure he'll do it. Plus, tropical paradise right below when he comes back (but I wouldn't fund that part). :P
Are you kidding? If we could have rented a broken down shrimp boat with a drunken captain a week ago that said he knew his way to Hawaii, Kori would have been on it in a heartbeat. :-)


Another shot from early this morning
Quoting mountainwx:


First light this morning with Iselle on the horizon. This is south of Hilo.
Didn't work. You need a better URL than "harrysserver". :-)


Recent view towards Hilo
Quoting 30. hurricanes2018:

watching this tropical wave tonight


No mention of this wave by any professionals. Gonna watch anyway though.
# 31. CybrTeddy

Epic meme usage right there. XD

Also, thanks to Bertha & some moisture from the last TW to pass through the area, water levels in the main dams for the metro area of Puerto Rico (the first two) are looking healthy.



Also latest drought index report indicates that the areas affected by the moderate drought & abnormal dryness has shrunk.
Quoting mountainwx:
I am in 1 block from the ocean near Pahoa. Winds are 20kts and waves are 6'-10'. The storm is still a ways away and we're at 2.15" of rain so far.
How is the rain so far compared to other tropical wave type events? I noticed the record rainfall for the day in Hilo is 5.51", which occurred in 1991, and about 10.00" is the normal monthly rainfall.
Quoting JLPR2:
# 31. CybrTeddy

Epic meme usage right there. XD

Also, thanks to Bertha & some moisture from the last TW to pass through the area, water levels in the main dams for the metro area of Puerto Rico (the first two) are looking healthy.



Also latest drought index report indicates that the areas affected by the moderate drought & abnormal dryness has shrunk.
That's certainly good news. Just enough from Bertha to help the rainfall deficit without wrecking anything. Maybe August will bring you a few more placid storms like that.
Quoting FOREX:


No mention of this wave by any professionals. Gonna watch anyway though.
He has to watch something, and four hurricanes in the Pacific aren't that interesting compared to some swirl in the Atlantic.
Quoting 31. CybrTeddy:




:P


What's that TA13 closing the blinds on Kori. LOL



clear the box before you add your URL awesome pics...
for #34 and #36
Awesome weather in Sooo Cal this week and into next week...........today Hi 83 Lo 57, Yesterday Hi 82 Lo 53....cannot get much better in August!
Quoting 37. FOREX:



No mention of this wave by any professionals. Gonna watch anyway though.
Gotta also watch the wave in Central Africa.
Quoting 40. sar2401:

That's certainly good news. Just enough from Bertha to help the rainfall deficit without wrecking anything. Maybe August will bring you a few more placid storms like that.

Hi Sar! Here in Jamaica, we had two consecutive days of rain. We also had a bit of rain last week. Here is the radar pic from 3: 00 P.M. local time:



Still a few showers in eastern Jamaica as well
Quoting OCF:

Wasn't there a typhoon passing over Luzon just as Mt. Pinatubo was having its giant eruption?
Sure was. Typhoon Yunya (1991) was passing over on first day of the big eruption. It was hardly a typhoon when it hit but the rain picked up all the ash cloud from Mt. Pinatubo and caused a rain of heavy mud for about eight hours downwind on Luzon. This rain of mud wrecked most of the buildings on Clark Force Base. The Philippine Government was already pressuring the US government to remove its military bases from Philippine soil and the destruction of Clark sealed the deal as far as the US was concerned. Another storm with historical consequences.
After todays rain I am now over 40" for the year.


OIA earlier today.

Quoting 44. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Awesome weather in Sooo Cal this week and into next week...........today Hi 83 Lo 57, Yesterday Hi 82 Lo 53....cannot get much better in August!


Yesterday 62.8 and 86.2 and Today 62.5 and 85.3 no water cooler today...


Second try. Sorry, I'm new at this.
This is around 2pm looking north toward Hilo
Wind just picked up. Around 30kts now, from the north. 1/2" of rain in the last 10 minutes.


First light of day with Iselle on the horizon
Quoting 50. mountainwx:



Second try. Sorry, I'm new at this.
This is around 2pm looking north toward Hilo

Now you got it......
Quoting 50. mountainwx:


Second try. Sorry, I'm new at this.
This is around 2pm looking north toward Hilo


You needed to add www. in front of the address
Ah no sorry it still doesnt display... hmmm
That did it, cleared the whole thing out & posted it again, editing didn't help, silly WU. XD


Another morning shot. Facing northeast about 30 south of Hilo.
57. 1344
Can't tell from radar whether it's jogging south meaning it'll miss the state or it is continuing WNW. Maybe I'm overthinking this.
Quoting 12. Patrap:


showers are beginning to make it over the mountains. its quite unusual for "tradewind showers" to make it over like that and keep continuing out to sea.


Just after the sunrise. Here comes Iselle.


Around 2pm looking north towards Hilo
Impacts from Iselle already being felt in the big island. This event is unprecedented in the record books. We could be having the first landfalling hurricane on the big island of Hawaii in recorded history.





yeap,just as we all knew it would weaken and just be a little T.S. as it hit !
Quoting nigel20:

Hi Sar! Here in Jamaica, we had two consecutive days of rains. We also had a bit of rain last week. Here is the radar pic from 3: 00 P.M. local time:



Still a few showers in eastern Jamaica as well
Hooray! It's nice to hear some people are getting rain. I spent the last week in Ohio, where we had rain twice. They've had a wet summer and all the crops look fabulous. Got back here to a high of 99, no rain, and half my plants are dead. There's no sign of rain on the horizon either. This is the time of year we really need a tropical storm, since there's really no other way to get general rains.
Quoting mountainwx:


First light of day with Iselle on the horizon
Very nice pictures.
Latest NCEP Ensembles

18z
Quoting 62. overwash12:

yeap,just as we all knew it would weaken and just be a little T.S. as it hit !


..... Its a Category One Hurricane...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON GENEVIEVE (1413)
9:00 AM JST August 8 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: GENEVIEVE In Midway Islands waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Genevieve (915 hPa) located at 16.2N 176.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 20.0N 175.6E- 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Midway Islands waters
48 HRS: 26.1N 174.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Midway Islands waters
72 HRS: 31.8N 169.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Far East Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #81
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HALONG (1411)
9:00 AM JST August 8 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: HALONG 230 KM East Southeast Of Amami Oshima [Kagoshima Prefecture]

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Halong (945 hPa) located at 27.3N 131.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Storm Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in east quadrant
210 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 30.2N 131.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) east southeast of Tanegashima [Kagoshima Prefecture]
48 HRS: 35.2N 133.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Chugoku [Okayama Prefecture]
72 HRS: 41.7N 135.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea of ​​Japan
69. 1344
Quoting 61. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Impacts from Iselle already being felt in the big island. This event is unprecedented in the record books. We could be having the first landfalling hurricane on the big island of Hawaii in recorded history.








There was possibly one in 1871 pre-HURDAt
Julio is a major hurricane?


This station now showing 1.91 inches of rainfall. Winds haven't gusted over 15 mph yet but that'll change VERY soon I think. Pressure at 29.89 inches and falling steadily.

EDIT: Just to clarify this is NOT my own webcam. The weather is a whole lot tamer here in Tennessee!
Genevieve's pressure right now is 915. Same intensity of Ioke now
Will it be a snowy August blizzardcane in Hawaii? The temperature at Mauna Kea is dropping and may drop lower this evening. The Infrared Telescope Facility is currently reporting 35.1 degrees (1.7 C)
Quoting sar2401:
Hooray! It's nice to hear some people are getting rain. I spent the last week in Ohio, where we had rain twice. They've had a wet summer and all the crops look fabulous. Got back here to a high of 99, no rain, and half my plants are dead. There's no sign of rain on the horizon either. This is the time of year we really need a tropical storm, since there's really no other way to get general rains.


I hope that you'll get some relief soon.

It's amazing how quickly the vegetation reacts to the recent showers. Prior to last, the grass was wilting, but green shoots are showing up.
Quasi-Annular? Interesting terminology.
Quoting 66. ncstorm:

Latest NCEP Ensembles

18z

Lots of support.
Quoting 44. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Awesome weather in Sooo Cal this week and into next week...........today Hi 83 Lo 57, Yesterday Hi 82 Lo 53....cannot get much better in August!



I dont like you anymore ...lol
We are getting back up to our "normal" August temperatures in Houston. Heat advisory in place for now until the Monday.
Now down to 35.0 F / 1.6 C I hope it gets to freezing and we get a surface observation of snow in the eyewall :)

Updated--now down to 33.9 F.
Quoting 70. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Julio is a major hurricane?




Yes.
Quoting 79. DonnieBwkGA:

Now down to 35.0 F / 1.6 C I hope it gets to freezing and we get a surface observation of snow in the eyewall :)


#CFHT/GEMINI Weather Tower Data
2014/08/07 16:06:00 #Date/time of acquisition
WS= 59.66 #Wind speed (knots)
WD= 91.80 #Wind direction (degrees) (0-360)
T = 3.82 #Temperature (degrees celsius)
RH= 97.37 #Relative humidity
BP= 615.07 #Barometric pressure (millibars)
Quoting 70. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Julio is a major hurricane?



Yessir he is, but not for much longer if those models hold true. Most of them seem to be pinning him at around cat 1 when he grazes the islands, so hopefully the track will end up as far north as possible and spare Hawaii from a double whammy.
Hurricane conditions verifying at Gemini observatory with winds sustained 75 mph gusting to 85.
Quoting 79. DonnieBwkGA:

Now down to 35.0 F / 1.6 C I hope it gets to freezing and we get a surface observation of snow in the eyewall :)

Updated--now down to 33.9 F.

First ever recorded snowfall in a fully tropical system? Now that would be cool!
86. 1344
Quoting 70. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Julio is a major hurricane?




Why wouldn't it be?
Is the spin just north of Eastern Cuba anything to watch?
Quoting 83. DonnieBwkGA:

Hurricane conditions verifying at Gemini observatory with winds sustained 75 mph gusting to 85.


Those wind reading will not be accurate. Has already been reported by UH.
I knew a 90mph peak for Hurricane Julio would be too low. In fact, it looks like a solid mid-range Category 3. Guessing 120mph at the 11pm EDT advisory from the NHC.

Hilo, HI International Airport-Hourly Obs
4PM Local (02Z)-Winds N @ 20/G 28 mph
Quoting NoNamePub:


Those wind reading will not be accurate. Has already been reported by UH.


Actually the Gemini observation is not exaggerated. The Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) is the one with the exaggerated wind readings, according to Dr. Masters.
Quoting 67. Doppler22:



..... Its a Category One Hurricane...
Not for long,A weakening system will not bring the winds downward.
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 81 knots (93 mph
Quoting 83. DonnieBwkGA:

Hurricane conditions verifying at Gemini observatory with winds sustained 75 mph gusting to 85.
from the Dr. M's discussion above "here are six anemometers reporting winds on top of Mauna Kea today, but beware of the data from the Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). The Mauna Kea webcam page says that those winds are highly exaggerated due to location of the anemometer tower between two large telescope domes. You can see this tower on Google Maps."

Gemini is the other observatory next to CFHT observatory.
Quoting abcdeer:
from the Dr. M's discussion above "here are six anemometers reporting winds on top of Mauna Kea today, but beware of the data from the Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). The Mauna Kea webcam page says that those winds are highly exaggerated due to location of the anemometer tower between two large telescope domes. You can see this tower on Google Maps."

Gemini is the other observatory next to CFHT observatory.
Quoting abcdeer:
from the Dr. M's discussion above "here are six anemometers reporting winds on top of Mauna Kea today, but beware of the data from the Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). The Mauna Kea webcam page says that those winds are highly exaggerated due to location of the anemometer tower between two large telescope domes. You can see this tower on Google Maps."

Gemini is the other observatory next to CFHT observatory.

You're right! Ah well, I'll check back in a few hours and see what the other observations show.
Quoting FOREX:
Is the spin just north of Eastern Cuba anything to watch?
Looks like an ULL being generated by a tropical wave moving east. It's trapped between two areas of high pressure and will probably dissipate as it moves toward Hispaniola. These kinds of isolated lows ride along with tropical waves in the summer. Unless they have some model support and some other dynamics you can see on the surface or upper air charts, they generally don't do anything. This one doesn't look threatening.

Quoting FOREX:
Is the spin just north of Eastern Cuba anything to watch?


It's a TUTT/upper level low, another is NE of that one.
Quoting 85. Huracan94:


First ever recorded snowfall in a fully tropical system? Now that would be cool!
Quoting 79. DonnieBwkGA:

Now down to 35.0 F / 1.6 C I hope it gets to freezing and we get a surface observation of snow in the eyewall :)

Updated--now down to 33.9 F.


Snow would not be possible. Even if below freezing. It's not the environment for snow...but graupel (small hail) cannot be dismissed...although chances of that are also small. In hurricane Felix (Atlantic Basin), hurricane hunter aircraft experienced this...but it's rare.
100. 1344
Quoting 92. overwash12:

Not for long,A weakening system will not bring the winds downward.


It has like 6 hours till landfall. It may very well hit as a hurricane. Doesn't appear to be weakening much, if at all.
Very interesting.
Probably more accurate

Quoting 64. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Help from D-Max?
Quoting 101. Gearsts:

Very interesting.

atlantic quiet during those dates?
Quoting 100. 1344:



It has like 6 hours till landfall. It may very well hit as a hurricane. Doesn't appear to be weakening much, if at all.
Irene was a hurricane when it went over my house,never seen a gust above 50!
Quoting 103. unknowncomic:

Help from D-Max?


It's d-min there. But it will be interesting to see what happens when the core hits the mountains--which will prevail, orographic enhancement of the clouds or the core being shredded?
Another webcam on the north side of the Big Island.Link
Another live webcam on north side of the big island.

Link
NOUS60 PHFO 072153
FTMHKM
Message Date: Aug 07 2014 21:53:39

PHKM UPOLU POINT RADAR DATA WILL BE INTERMITTENT DUE TO HIGH WINDS FROM HURRICAN
E ISELLE BLOWING THE RADOME HATCH OPEN, WHICH PUTS THE RADAR INTO STANDBY AUTOMA
TICALLY. HFO

Evidently. not even the NWS in Hawaii was ready for this hurricane. So we get no radar. Wonderful.
Temperature at the InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF) has hit freezing 32.0 F / 0.0 C

Also the IRTF is reporting sustained winds of 75 mph. That's got to feel ugly in the rain.
Quoting 105. overwash12:

Irene was a hurricane when it went over my house,never seen a gust above 50!


We measured a 116 mph gust on an OBX island near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina with Irene
Quoting 92. overwash12:

Not for long,A weakening system will not bring the winds downward.


Even if Iselle is a TS at landfall, many of the residents will experience hurricane force winds, purely because Hawaii is, you know, a mountain. Winds increase in height, and then you have the weird effect of orographically-funneled winds with the valleys/slopes of the mountains.
Looks like Iselle has come out over the 27 degree waters, perhaps accounting for the sudden flareup on the western side of the storm. There will probably be a huge flareup as the core hits the high ground, but unfortunately this may also disrupt the exquisite annular structure, if any remains, that has sustained Iselle thru thick and very thin.
Quoting 105. overwash12:

Irene was a hurricane when it went over my house,never seen a gust above 50!
That is usually the case the winds over the water will be strongest, as soon as the storm makes landfall the friction of land would tend to cause the winds to be weaker at the surface. Now up on the mountains will be a different story. Regardless, the main impacts should be heavy rainfall possibly resulting in flash flooding and potentially depending on how the beaches are set up there could be some beach erosion. Tides will be up as well, I was reading a comment earlier about this coming in during astronomical high tide.
Quoting 72. Huracan94:

The weather is a whole lot tamer here in Tennessee!


Yay, Tennessean! Finally got some rain this evening here in Nashville, been so dry that my tulip poplar decided to ditch all of the leaves. All of them. Tree is shutting down for the year.

Finished my Eagle Project today in the heat as well, with my sunburn from last week beginning the peeling process.....
Quoting 112. Astrometeor:



Even if Iselle is a TS at landfall, many of the residents will experience hurricane force winds, purely because Hawaii is, you know, a mountain. Winds increase in height, and then you have the weird effect of orographically-funneled winds with the valleys/slopes of the mountains.
You did a much better job in explaining that in much less words then me. Don't forget friction. :D
Quoting 110. DonnieBwkGA:

Temperature at the InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF) has hit freezing 32.0 F / 0.0 C


Most likely bogus reading, all other stations in uppers 30's lower 40's with increasing temperatures. This hurricane will warm the air.
wow. direct hit.

what are the chances of that?
Quit ruining my illusions with well-founded knowledge VAbeachhurricanes ;)
WTPA33 PHFO 080237
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

...ISELLE CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 153.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.8 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ISELLE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM THE U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT ISELLE
COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND. ISELLE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE BIG ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...
AND FOR OAHU ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
KAUAI COUNTY LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES TONIGHT. VERY LARGE...DAMAGING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
Plume of moisture coming off Africa and Cape Verde becoming "thicker."

122. 1344
CPHC made a big blunder by lower the winds. This is such a risk given how close this is to landfall.

There is nothing to suggest lower than 70 knts. It looks better overall, just a little more elongated.
Quoting 115. Astrometeor:



Yay, Tennessean! Finally got some rain this evening here in Nashville, been so dry that my tulip poplar decided to ditch all of the leaves. All of them. Tree is shutting down for the year.

Finished my Eagle Project today in the heat as well, with my sunburn from last week beginning the peeling process.....

What is it with the trees back there? Are they all acting weird?
Quoting 116. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You did a much better job in explaining that in much less words then me. Don't forget friction. :D


Friction is what, a 10-20% reduction in winds? Didn't want to bolster his argument. :) Nah, who am I kidding, I forgot about friction. Tend to do that a lot though....just ask my HS physics teacher....

Edit: Forgot a word, lol. Must be a sign that I should go take my hot shower.
Quoting 123. PedleyCA:


What is it with the trees back there? Are all acting weird?


Just the poplar and another tree is beginning. The dry spell is nothing like the 2007 drought, so none of the Oaks/Maples/large-rooted trees are paying any mind right now. Grass is a nice shade of death, though.
127. beell

300 meter contour interval


(click for larger images)

Volcano Village: 1,143 meters (3,750 ft)
Mountain View: 437 meters (1,434 ft)
Kea'au: 104 meters (341 ft)
Hilo: 18 meters (59 ft)
closer and closer

Mauna Kea now showing ESE 80 mph, and 4.1 C (39.3 F).
Quoting 126. Astrometeor:



Just the poplar and another tree is beginning. The dry spell is nothing like the 2007 drought, so none of the Oaks/Maples/large-rooted trees are paying any mind right now. Grass is a nice shade of death, though.


Too funny, I dug my lawn up. They got mad because I wasn't wasting water on it, so I dug it up and am putting drought resistant rocks there....
Quoting 129. BayFog:

Mauna Kea now showing ESE 80 mph, and 4.1 C (39.3 F).
Link please.
Quoting 129. BayFog:

Mauna Kea now showing ESE 80 mph, and 4.1 C (39.3 F).

And I must say, that is a very odd direction for the wind given the location of the storm center relative to the mountain.
133. beell
May be interesting to see some wind reports funneling through between Mauna Loa/Mauna Kea.

Quoting 131. unknowncomic:

Link please.

It's the Mauna Kea link given by Dr. Masters in the above blog entry.
136. 1344
"I lowered the advisory intensity to 65 knots because the various RECON intensity estimate techniques in the 23Z pass gave 66 kt, 67 kt, and 68 kt, with 90% of a max flight level wind of 72 knots giving 65 knots. This made going with 70 kt in the 00z intensity a stretch, but we round up slightly for the sake of safety and likely undersampling. Since the pressure continues to rise slowly, and the satellite and radar presentations of the system looking increasingly sheared, I could not justify retaining the 70 knot intensity at 03z.

If you are finding that the CPHC webpage is slow, you should try hitting refresh. Many times we find that people are getting old info on the page because their browser is loading from the cache. There have been many times I've been on the phone with people insisting the page is old when I'm looking at the our page from the office and it's current. The goal here is to publish the complete advisory package by :45, but the discussion almost always goes last as we put together our thoughts. The package is not officially "late" until synoptic + 3 hour."-from Storm2k on Iselle's weakening.
Have there been droughts in MN? There are reports are trees turning there too.
The curse of the "I" storm lives... in the Pacific.

Eye beginning to appear.

Super Typhoon Genevieve, Hurricane Iselle, and Major Hurricane Julio:

The CPAC reminds me of what the Atlantic used to look like.
Quoting 137. Climate175:

Have there been droughts in MN? There are reports are trees turning there.


No drought up there, but you would have to go and see when trees typically lose their leaves up there. Trees don't lose leaves for temperature, they lose them in a predictable time in the fall because that's when the amount of sun gets to an unsustainable point for the tree. Droughts affect trees since the tree doesn't want to lose more water via transpiration than what is available in the ground. And there are some others, but you'd have to fact-check the trees in MN.

Some trees leaf at odd times of the year. I have a tree that likes to be bare in summer and go green in winter. Bucks the above, but that's how it behaves.

---

Off for now, might be on later.
144. xcool
GTstormChaserCaleb I agree not nomore
Quoting 137. Climate175:

Have there been droughts in MN? There are reports are trees turning there too.


I believe the trees turning color there is because of excess water in the soil
Quoting 115. Astrometeor:



Yay, Tennessean! Finally got some rain this evening here in Nashville, been so dry that my tulip poplar decided to ditch all of the leaves. All of them. Tree is shutting down for the year.

Finished my Eagle Project today in the heat as well, with my sunburn from last week beginning the peeling process.....

Well congrats on finishing your Eagle Project! I was in Boy Scouts intermittently myself but never got past 1st Class. I think the rain is supposed to fizzle before it gets here in Sparta but I haven't seen the radar yet. It's UBER sticky outside this evening though so maybe we'll see some sprinkles at least.
Quoting 143. Astrometeor:



No drought up there, but you would have to go and see when trees typically lose their leaves up there. Trees don't lose leaves for temperature, they lose them in a predictable time in the fall because that's when the amount of sun gets to an unsustainable point for the tree. Droughts affect trees since the tree doesn't want to lose more water via transpiration than what is available in the ground. And there are some others, but you'd have to fact-check the trees in MN.

Some trees leaf at odd times of the year. I have a tree that likes to be bare in summer and go green in winter. Bucks the above, but that's how it behaves.

---

Off for now, might be on later.
Huh... Might need to do some researching on that tree later, back to Hawaii Hurricanes.
Quoting 145. tornadodude:



I believe the trees turning color there is because of excess water in the soil
I certainly believe so, my trees around my area don't start until mid-late October.
I'm 20 miles south of Hilo. We've had 2 1/2" of rain so far. The waves increased an hour ago to 15'-20'. They sound even bigger as I'm writing this. Highest gust so far around 30kts.
The NHC has declared Julio another annular hurricane.
154. silas
Julio's convection may be waning a bit, but it has absolutely beautiful structure.

157. 1344
Quoting 142. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The CPAC reminds me of what the Atlantic used to look like.


So true.
EPAC/CPAC Numbers: 11/6/5
_________________________________________

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

Despite a marginal environment, Julio has become better organized
over the past several hours with warming temperatures in the eye
and strong convection in the eyewall. Subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates from all agencies suggest that the intensity has
increased to at least 100 kt, so the initial wind speed is raised to
that value.

With few outer bands and a symmetric structure around the eye,
Julio now appears to have become an annular hurricane, much like
Iselle in the same general area a few days ago.
While guidance
is generally showing a steady or quick weakening, these hurricanes
are known to be more resilent to marginal environments than most.
Since little change is expected to the SSTs or shear for the next
day or so, it makes sense to go above the model guidance at that
time with the current annular structure, and the NHC prediction is
raised from the previous one. An increase in westerly shear after
that time could cause Julio to transition into a more conventional
cyclone structure, so the intensity forecast is blended with the
previous interpolated forecast and the model consensus. At long
range, although the SSTs are forecast to rise, there could also be
an increase in shear. With the large uncertainty, little change is
made to the extended-range intensity prediction.

Julio is moving at about 280/14. There has been no change to the
forecast synoptic pattern with the hurricane expected to remain
south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, with a
westward turn at long range due to the ridge strengthening. Track
guidance is in better agreement than the last cycle, with even
the GFDL model, formerly an outlier solution near Hawaii, shifting
northward away from the islands. The new NHC prediction is
adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, close to the model
consensus, although most of the better performing individual models
are still farther north. It should be noted that data from a NOAA
G-IV jet synoptic surveillance mission for Julio should be included
in the 0000 UTC model runs.

Julio is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center's area of responsibility by 0900 UTC and will issue the next
advisory on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 17.4N 139.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.4N 147.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.6N 149.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.9N 154.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 24.2N 159.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 163.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
Maybe some East Atlantic development in the neighborhood of August 12?

00z loading.
I think the flare up of thunderstorms from Iselle tonight will guarantee a Hawaiian landfall as a hurricane. Epic season continues for entire Pacific Ocean.
Quoting 154. silas:

Julio's convection may be waning a bit, but it has absolutely beautiful structure.



You can see him popping up a pair of hot towers in that picture, too.
Time: 2014-08-08 03:41 UTC
Event: 0 HIGH SUST WINDS
Source: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Remark: POLICE REPORT 2 DOWNED TREES ON ROUTE 11 NEAR MILE MARKER 19.
Time: 2014-08-08 03:41 UTC
Event: 0 HIGH SUST WINDS
Source: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Remark: POLICE REPORT 2 DOWNED TREES ALONG ROUTE 132 BETWEEN NANAWALE BLVD AND LAVA TREE PARK.
Trees down in Pahoa and Glenwood on the big island already.
Quoting 129. BayFog:

Mauna Kea now showing ESE 80 mph, and 4.1 C (39.3 F).

Thats at the one weather station Dr. M told us not to watch, since it is positioned badly.

Link

Ignore CFHT/GEM.
On a quick side note:

ULL in the SW Bahamas appears to be trying to work down to the surface. Currently interacting with a Twave in the Central Caribbean.



Quoting 165. Climate175:


That is high in latitude.
 
169. flsky
Watched a rather interesting program the other night re Iniki and how it hit Kauai while Spielberg was there filming the first Jurassic Park. Think it was on TWC
Quoting 168. Tornado6042008X:





That is high in latitude.
 
It starts to lower once it comes off.
Current state of shear in the W-ATL and Caribb is pretty darn low. I wouldn't be surprised to see something pop up here in the next week or so.

Quoting 169. flsky:

Watched a rather interesting program the other night re Iniki and how it hit Kauai while Spielberg was there filming the first Jurassic Park. Think it was on TWC


ya. isn't that neat.

the last hurricane landfall in Hawaii is associated with Jurassic Park and it ended up changing the movie atmosphere.
The ppv sites like weatherbell don't have many paying customers in places like Hawaii, as opposed to the densely populated US East Coast zones. You have to take the population density in account when considering their hypinion.
.
Looks like this blog's slowing down quite a bit. I'll be turning in for the night soon as well.

Julio's lost a huge amount a bit of depth in only a few hours. I bet he'd be nothing but a rainless swirl of clouds this time tomorrow if he wasn't annular.
This is easily the most fun forecasting situation I've been in since... Sandy.

Not even Karen was this exciting (obviously), and I was really excited for that one since it was going into Louisiana. Well, before the 200 mb flow was found out to be underestimated by the models, but yeah.
Now is the time for EPAC systems to go North instead of West.. bringing rains to CONUS SW and Texas.
Inbound to center

Time: 05:03:30Z
Coordinates: 18.1667N 155.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.0 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,181 meters (~ 10,436 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.0 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 3° at 26 knots (From the N at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 8.8°C (~ 47.8°F)
Dew Pt: 4.3°C (~ 39.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
Getting closer.

Only about 75 miles or so SE of Hilo, Hawaii. Getting close.
Aloha Islanders!
Pressure isn't falling much at Hilo, but conditions are picking up. It may have a very tight pressure gradient still, which may make up for the rising pressures in the center due to only a partial eyewall.
Quoting 181. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Getting closer.


what app/program/website are you using?
Should be downgraded shortly

Time: 05:30:00Z
Coordinates: 18.8833N 154.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.8 mb (~ 20.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,127 meters (~ 10,259 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.0 mb (~ 29.35 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 214° at 1 knots (From the SSW/SW at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C (~ 59.4°F)
Dew Pt: 6.1°C (~ 43.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
Quoting 187. VAbeachhurricanes:

Should be downgraded shortly

Time: 05:30:00Z
Coordinates: 18.8833N 154.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.8 mb (~ 20.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,127 meters (~ 10,259 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.0 mb (~ 29.35 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 214° at 1 knots (From the SSW/SW at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C (~ 59.4°F)
Dew Pt: 6.1°C (~ 43.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)


Cloud tops are warming and convection is elongating.
We're witnessing history tonight. I don't think there's ever been a recorded hurricane landfall on The Big Island. Assuming the CPHC keeps Iselle as a hurricane until landfall, that'll also be the second US Hurricane landfall this year, after Arthur and the most since 2008 (Isaac was the only hurricane landfall in 2012, Sandy was declared post-tropical right before it hit, but the effects were still catastrophic).
190. FOREX
Watching the spin over central Mexico.
Quoting 188. KoritheMan:



Cloud tops are warming and convection is elongating.


looks like shes finally outta steam
Quoting 157. 1344:



So true.


We are emotional beings, so easily we discount the Atlantic with but a few average seasons. Way way too early to say a decline in the Atlantic seasons is on. We've seen historic numbers in the last fifteen years. Like severe weather seasons we'll see waxing and waning of the seasons. To be negative on the Atlantic outlook of the future is purely emotional and not based on anything but.
Quoting 191. VAbeachhurricanes:



looks like shes finally outta steam


I still wouldn't rule out a resurgence in convection prior to landfall, partially enhanced by topographic effects.
Storms aren't downgraded based off pressure, as we learned during Bertha, what will matter if the recon fails to find the winds.
195. 1344
I'd agree a downgrade to TS is likely.
196. vis0
Apology* if repeated news::
►Mercury in upper ocean has tripled since the Industrial ...
►Gulf of Mexico ‘dead zone’ now the size of Connecticut, scientists say (as related to oil spill area-less rich oxygen)

*apology is towards short sighted thinkers that get upset in seeing news of human's irresponsible behavior in cleaning up - be it from accidents or negligence,  not to mother nature. Nature needs as many people possible to THINK before they pollute/damage the gift that is a healthy eco-system. Just imagine how hard it would be to live or have a chance to have a healthy life if you had these impurities already in your body at birth. SADLY your organs would be failing before you even knew it, so is the eco system in that its over-burdened ever new year/cycle by irresponsible acts and place the burden on cleaning the millennium of mess on mother nature.
197. 1344
053930 1916N 15351W 6967 03158 0099 +067 +067 153058 060 055 019 00

So 55 knts.
Quoting 194. CybrTeddy:

Storms aren't downgraded based off pressure, as we learned during Bertha, what will matter if the recon fails to find the winds.


strongest flight level winds around 55-60 knts.
Yea, nowhere near close to hurricane status on that pass, and that's where the strongest winds are. I expect Iselle will be downgraded tonight.
So while epic to Hawaii standards, this will be a 65-70mph TS landing. Will cause big issues but will pale in comparison to the Cat4 landing of yesteryear. Imagine impacts will be minimal, but this is a great example of how they on the Hawaiian islands prepare as compared to how Floridians would prepare for a Cat1/2. High level of preparedness as compared to a large collective yawn.
Quoting 200. DeepSeaRising:

So while epic to Hawaii standards, this will be a 65-70mph TS landing. Will cause big issues but will pale in comparison to the Cat4 landing of yesteryear. Imagine impacts will be minimal, but this is a great example of how they on the Hawaiian islands prepare as compared to how Floridians would prepare for a Cat1/2. High level of preparedness as compared to a large collective yawn.


Biggest threat with this will be flash flooding/landslides and widespread power outages on the Big Island. The mountainous areas in particular will be hard hit, with sustained hurricane-force winds possible in higher elevations (even if it weakens to a tropical storm).
Still a hurricane at the 6z update. Pressure still 992 mb also.

Of note, it appears to have taken a south-of-west jog. Apparent on microwave comparisons as well.
CPHC is maintaining Iselle as a hurricane for the intermediate advisory.

Can she make it?!
Quoting 203. wxgeek723:

CPHC is maintaining Iselle as a hurricane for the intermediate advisory.

Can she make it?!


They're probably just waiting for recon to finish sampling.
Quoting 186. CybrTeddy:

.


Oh, great. First Kevin, now you Kyle. Sheesh. Must be some sort of Morse Code.

-.-. --- -.. -.-- / .. ... / .- / .-- . .. .-. -.. / .--. . .-. ... --- -. --..-- / .- .-.. .-- .- -.-- ... / -- .- -.- .. -. --. / .... .- .-. ... .... / -.-. --- -- -- . -. - ... / .- -... --- ..- - / --- - .... . .-. ... --..-- / -... ..- - / -.. . . .--. / -.. --- .-- -. --..-- / .. / -.- -. --- .-- / .... . / .. ... / .- / ... --- ..-. - .. . / .- - / .... . .- .-. - .-.-.-

If anyone can translate that, brownie points to you.
Oh it's a done deal. This won't go down as a hurricane landfall, and I suspect not even close. Whether they downgrade it at the last second will likely come down to PR, nothing else.

Quoting 203. wxgeek723:

CPHC is maintaining Iselle as a hurricane for the intermediate advisory.

Can she make it?!


I doubt it according to the recon data.It will still most likely make landfall as a strong tropical storm.
Quoting 206. Levi32:

Oh it's a done deal. This won't go down as a hurricane landfall, and I suspect not even close. Whether they downgrade it at the last second will likely come down to PR, nothing else.




Levi, dude, you should've done a video forecast for this storm. I would've personally loved to see it.
In my opinion, 50 kt seems like a good bet. I imagine they'll keep it at least 55, though.
If Levi says it's a tropical storm, it is a tropical storm!
Recon found 993 MB based on GR Earth...
Quoting 211. HurricaneHunterJoe:


ocean spray is showing up now. Coming off the coast to what would be the western part of the eye
Quoting 215. Astrometeor:



Ha! You intentionally messed that one up.

"Cody is a weird person, always making harsh comments about others, but deep down, I know he is a softie at heart."


So... me?
Quoting KoritheMan:
In my opinion, 50 kt seems like a good bet. I imagine they'll keep it at least 55, though.
Just stopped in before hitting the hay. Iselle is doing what I thought it would. Hawaii has a long history of weakening storms from the east, and this one is no exception. I suspect the winds are dying off even more rapidly from 5,000 to 15,000 feet than nearer the surface. Combined with the very small wind field, this should limit the amount of wind damage the Big Island gets. There will still be quite a bit of rain but they get quite a bit of rain from normal tropical thunderstorms, so the topography has evolved to handle it pretty well. This should end up being a relatively low impact event, for which we can all be thankful.
Quoting 216. KoritheMan:



So... me?


No. Cody does it more than you.

Edit: I'm out, good night blog.
219. 1344
Quoting 206. Levi32:

Oh it's a done deal. This won't go down as a hurricane landfall, and I suspect not even close. Whether they downgrade it at the last second will likely come down to PR, nothing else.


This.
Part of tonight's 8pm forecast discussion

SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISELLE MOVING OVER THE
BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20
AND 35 MPH...AND HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
ARE ALREADY REACHING THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE EASTERN MOST
POINT OF THE BIG ISLAND CURRENTLY IS EXPERIENCING THE BRUNT OF THE
OF THE WINDS. AS OF 800 PM...THE CENTER OF ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.9N 154.4W...ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...MOVING TO THE WEST
AT 15 MPH.
Quoting 218. Astrometeor:



No. Cody does it more than you.

Edit: I'm out, good night blog.


Drak does it more than Cody and me.

Too bad he's not around to see that. :P
222. ECMWF
Hurricane Iselle about to make landfall on the Big Island. I am expecting Hilo and the lowlands on the east side of the island to get crushed.
Quoting 222. ECMWF:

Hurricane Iselle about to make landfall on the Big Island. I am expecting Hilo and the lowlands on the east side of the island to get crushed.


Go away, troll.
224. FOREX
@Kori, the ULL south of the Bahamas anything that might be trying to develop?
Infrared telescope hit 109 mph 8 minutes ago, now at 80mph. Kinda breezy up there.
Do you think she will wobble south due to the interaction of the big island?
Infrared telescope hit 109 mph 8 minutes ago, now at 80mph. Kinda breezy up there....and now 111mph.
Quoting 224. FOREX:

@Kori, the ULL south of the Bahamas anything that might be trying to develop?


I can see at least some persistent cloudiness coming from this. Setups with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-tropospheric cold low do sometimes generate surface lows if the convection persists enough.
Infrared Telescope now reporting 131mph winds......yowza.
15,000+ customer on the big island without power. Mostly in puna district and some in downtown Hilo. Source Kitv4 news live report

Good morning with mission 07 into Iselle.



Breaking News Storm - @breakingstorm 7 Min.
Iselle downgraded from hurricane to tropical storm 50 miles from Hawaii; winds now at 70 mph - @AP http://www.breakingnews.com/t/TZf

Twitternewsfeed Iselle

Impact of Big Island's high mountains on Iselle, seen by Earthwind at 1000hPa; to the right: Julio. Source.
Caribbean finally starting to moistening up. All we need is the bone dry Atlantic to moisten up and its game on.
Although mountains seem very big and high, given how large and strong hurricanes are I wonder if Mauna Kea will have much rain-shadowing effect on the Kona coast.

It does seem probable that the island will keep the west side scuba sites from being scoured by surge.


Quoting 235. panzerfaust:

Although mountains seem very big and high, given how large and strong hurricanes are I wonder if Mauna Kea will have much rain-shadowing effect on the Kona coast.

It does seem probable that the island will keep the west side scuba sites from being scoured by surge.



According to this, you are right about the rain shadow.It's pretty much a really wet trade wind weather pattern right now except for tropical storm Iselle. The highest 24hr rainfall total I could find is 8 " at the Kohala Rain forest. Many places are in the 3-5" right now, with many mountain side gauges currently receiving 1" per hour.

Edit* if the link dosent work! search mesonet observations hawaii.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1200 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY

* UNTIL 245 AM HST

* AT 1144 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. STREAM GAGES WERE SHOWING STEADY RISES
WHICH SUGGEST RUNOFF LEVELS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF HILO...
HAMAKUA AND WINDWARD KOHALA WERE REACHING A POINT WHERE ROAD
CLOSURES MAY BE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAIPIO VALLEY...LAUPAHOEHOE...OOKALA...HONOKAA...WAIMEA.. .
HILO...KEAAU...PAHOA...MOUNTAIN VIEW...VOLCANO AND GLENWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 245 AM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 1983 15542 2011 15596 2031 15589 2019 15544
1990 15505 1944 15471 1910 15537 1943 15544

$$

KODAMA
Quoting 238. abcdeer:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1200 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY

* UNTIL 245 AM HST

* AT 1144 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. STREAM GAGES WERE SHOWING STEADY RISES
WHICH SUGGEST RUNOFF LEVELS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF HILO...
HAMAKUA AND WINDWARD KOHALA WERE REACHING A POINT WHERE ROAD
CLOSURES MAY BE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAIPIO VALLEY...LAUPAHOEHOE...OOKALA...HONOKAA...WAIMEA.. .
HILO...KEAAU...PAHOA...MOUNTAIN VIEW...VOLCANO AND GLENWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 245 AM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 1983 15542 2011 15596 2031 15589 2019 15544
1990 15505 1944 15471 1910 15537 1943 15544

$$

KODAMA


origraphical forcing working overtime




Quoting 237. Gearsts:




From Fridays morning discussion of San Juan NWS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...UP TO NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES 40 WEST. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED LATE THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
Ever so slowly. I guess I'm going to end up missing landfall. Stay safe big island.

Quoting 241. abcdeer:

Ever so slowly. I guess I'm going to end up missing landfall. Stay safe big island.




You're nuts, dude. Stay up and watch this.
Quoting 242. momof4girls:

the season is done for the atlantic, i dont see anything happeneing this year. to dry and to sheary forcatsed the next 2 months.... its pacific time this year


I would be loath to trust someone that can't spell for ****, by the way.
dont forget for those who dont know there are two high volcanos on the big island mauna kea and mauna loa. loa is on the south side kilaeua caldera is to the east of these two big ones.
Quoting 246. momof4girls:

i gues you never make typos huh? bozo


Actually, let me rephrase that: I don't trust about 80% of the people here. My friend left this site a few years ago, and at this point I honestly don't blame him.

The remaining 20% keep me here.

P.S. Since I'm feeling unusually generous, I'll let you know why I assailed you: I don't see any evidence to back up what you are saying other than what's happening now. Disagreements are fine, but on a community like this one, they should be met evidence to evidence.

Ya dig?
Quoting 243. KoritheMan:



You're nuts, dude. Stay up and watch this.
I think it's making landfall right now over volcanos national park. I can sleep for a few hours now. Got work in the morning.
Quoting 243. KoritheMan:



You're nuts, dude. Stay up and watch this.
Is she still packing an eye feature? I thought the plane couldn't find one.
06Z NAM at 84 hours
Quoting 249. allancalderini:

Is she still packing an eye feature? I thought the plane couldn't find one.
so she made landfall as a tropical storm big island. stronger and wetter than i thought she'd be.
254. MahFL
Looks like the coc is tightening up, likely something to do with mountain interaction no doubt.
255. MahFL
Indeed a small spot of convection increased just off shore.

they are volcanos mah.
258. JRRP
no shortage of lava in that part of the hawaiian islands.
260. MahFL
Quoting 256. islander101010:

they are volcanos mah.

Oh and here is me thinking they were post glacial foothills.....
262. MahFL
The tightening up of the coc was unexpected, I thought Iselle would be smashed apart, it was looking that way for a while.
Halong..

Quoting hydrus:




That sure dos not look like a Ts any more in fac it looks like a open wave now
Quoting 261. hydrus:




Well she's sure leaving some good moisture for Julio.
Good Morning..

00z NCEP Ensembles
We're finding out the Big Island will do serious damage to Tropical Storm.
269. SLU
Quoting 141. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Super Typhoon Genevieve, Hurricane Iselle, and Major Hurricane Julio:




It sure does.
We had two beautiful days of sunshine but now the rain is supposed to return..supposed to have high rain chances until thursday of next week..

271. MahFL
Convection still increasing on IR.
Good Morning. My 8th year anniversary today on the Blog and a big thanks to Dr. Masters for his excellent analysis/teaching over the years and giving us the opportunity, as amateur weather enthusiasts, to share and discuss the issue of weather on this Forum.  We have seen him go "nationwide" with the deal with TWC and he deserves it; it was our little secret so to speak and to now see Dr. Masters make his occasional appearances on television or being interviewed on weather issues (or related to his Portlight activities) is a great joy.  May He Live Long and Prosper.

As for the Bloggers, past and present, I won't give a long list of specific names but just say that I have learned about 1/2 of my current knowledge base from Dr. Masters and the other 1/2 from some of better Bloggers on here over the years.  I do want to give two shout outs to two specific Bloggers. One to GulfScottsman from several years ago around 2006-2007.  He was extremely knowledgeable and instead of berating me or putting me down if I made stupid statements or rookie mistakes, he referred to me as "Grasshopper" and would actually teach me something about reading a weather map or chart; that is what the Blog should be and when it is at it's best.  Secondly I wish to thank Patrap for his contributions to the Blog from day one and to Portlight.  He is very good with posting charts and radar imaging on a regular basis, and rather than comment specifically often, he will just post the image and let us draw our own conclusions. And his funny pictures with the captions are most appreciated.      

It's supposed to be a teaching and learning Blog and always nice to see some of the newer members try to stick to that great tradition rather than get caught up in bashing people; just ignore those folks who take the low road for whatever reason.  It's only a weather Blog after all.

Now back to the weather; still pretty bone dry in the Atlantic at the moment but a little more moisture propagating from Africa to the East and the E-Pac; that has been the story so far the past several weeks:


Quoting 270. ncstorm:

We had two beautiful days of sunshine but now the rain is supposed to return..supposed to have high rain chances until thursday of next week..




I picked up .49" yesterday by 3 miles west of me in Apopka 3.66" of rain fell from a large stationary storm which produced some mammoth lightning across my area.
The NC low that has been predicted by the models for development into an extratropical system was looking cold core but I noticed the CMC has changed its tune

Quoting 274. ncstorm:

The NC low that has been predicted by the models for development into an extratropical system was looking cold core but I noticed the CMC has changed its tune




That's what I was telling you the other day. IMO I think the MDR region is going to be lame this year with most system forming closer to the US. If a system does form across the MDR then chances are it stays weak until it gets closer to the US or above 20N.
ESPI index is up to .88 as of today. 30 day SOI index is down to -6.1. Path is set now for El-Nino to come by December FINALLY!
278. MahFL
Quoting 272. weathermanwannabe:

.... My 8th year anniversary today on the Blog.....It's supposed to be a teaching and learning Blog....>


Congratulations on 8 years, I don't personally regard this blog as a teaching/learning blog...
Quoting 251. abcdeer:



As we all know (with Arthur) it's all about convection. Considering how bad it looks on satellite, I'm surprised how good it looks on radar. If I didn't see the satellite I would say it still is a hurricane. But with all the convection, they must be getting some impressive squalls and TS conditions.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like all the hype that people preached about Hawaii getting hit by 2 hurricanes was bogus. JB on weatherbell is not happy about some of the headlines today with one saying "Hurricane Strikes Hawaii" when the system has 1001,b pressure.


You mean the reporters in Hilo acting like the city is being hit by a CAT2 are hyping it up a bit?
281. MahFL
Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like all the hype that people preached about Hawaii getting hit by 2 hurricanes was bogus. J..


To be fair most media were reporting 2 hurricanes heading to Hawaii not that they would make landfall as hurricanes, Jim Cantore did say it was likely Iselle would be @70 mph at landfall, but it of course would not make much difference to the amount of damage that will occur.
Quoting 279. opal92nwf:


As we all know (with Arthur) it's all about convection. Considering how bad it looks on satellite, I'm surprised how good it looks on radar. If I didn't see the satellite I would say it still is a hurricane. But with all the convection, they must be getting some impressive squalls and TS conditions.


JB is saying it appears there could be some gusts to 65mph on the coast with 40mph gust inland.
I think many people don't understand the significance of Iselle, it was SOOO close to being a hurricane strike, and no hurricane in recorded history has hit the Big Island and approached like that from due east.

Even though it's weakened to tropical storm, it's still very significant. Most tropical systems we've seen recently that have attempted to approach from this angle have basically been a naked swirl by the time it skirts the islands.
Quoting 280. Sfloridacat5:



You mean the reporters in Hilo acting like the city is being hit by a CAT2 are hyping it up a bit?


The Drudge report? CNN? MSNBC? Doc Masters? The only channel I haven't seen hype was actually on FOX News of all places.
http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNI DS_map?station=HWA&brand=wui&num=40&delay=5&type=N CR&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&showstorms=5&ma px=400&mapy=240�erx=400�ery=240&transx=0&trans y=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hid e&smooth=0&rand=23457645&lat=19.40880013&lon=-155. 27423096&label=Hawaii National Park%2C HI
I know NBC is a touchy subject on here so with that I will head for the exits.
I see the northwesterly shear has taken its anticipated toll on Iselle.
Still interesting to watch her interact with Hawaii.
It's not every day you get to watch a storm crash into a 13,000ft mountain.
Even the highest point on Hispaniola is only 10k feet, and it's surrounded by much more coastal plains.
The persistence of the rain shadow in the radar loops is amazing.
I wonder how it would have been different had the shear not gotten to her first.

Happy 8th, and I would like to 2nd all this, about the help and support from those that give it here. Props to those that go out of their way to explain and teach to those of us who do not know or understand.

And as always, Thanks to Dr. Masters for all his excellent work and providing us with a place to talk about all this.

Quoting 272. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. My 8th year anniversary today on the Blog and a big thanks to Dr. Masters for his excellent analysis/teaching over the years and giving us the opportunity, as amateur weather enthusiasts, to share and discuss the issue of weather on this Forum.  We have seen him go "nationwide" with the deal with TWC and he deserves it; it was our little secret so to speak and to now see Dr. Masters make his occasional appearances on television or being interviewed on weather issues (or related to his Portlight activities) is a great joy.  May He Live Long and Prosper.

As for the Bloggers, past and present, I won't give a long list of specific names but just say that I have learned about 1/2 of my current knowledge base from Dr. Masters and the other 1/2 from some of better Bloggers on here over the years.  I do want to give two shout outs to two specific Bloggers. One to GulfScottsman from several years ago around 2006-2007.  He was extremely knowledgeable and instead of berating me or putting me down if I made stupid statements or rookie mistakes, he referred to me as "Grasshopper" and would actually teach me something about reading a weather map or chart; that is what the Blog should be and when it is at it's best.  Secondly I wish to thank Patrap for his contributions to the Blog from day one and to Portlight.  He is very good with posting charts and radar imaging on a regular basis, and rather than comment specifically often, he will just post the image and let us draw our own conclusions. And his funny pictures with the captions are most appreciated.      

It's supposed to be a teaching and learning Blog and always nice to see some of the newer members try to stick to that great tradition rather than get caught up in bashing people; just ignore those folks who take the low road for whatever reason.  It's only a weather Blog after all.
iselle is talking to pele nice sat of the interaction
Wow

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The Drudge report? CNN? MSNBC? Doc Masters? The only channel I haven't seen hype was actually on FOX News of all places.


I've really like the young guy that's been reporting on NBC while standing in ankle deep water with some light drizzle coming down.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I know NBC is a touchy subject on here so with that I will head for the exits.


See post 291
293. 1344
WTPA63 PHFO 081245
TCUCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
245 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

...CENTER OF ISELLE MAKES LANDFALL...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 230 AM
HST...1230 UTC...ALONG THE KAU COAST ON THE BIG ISLAND...ABOUT 5
MILES EAST OF PAHALA.

SUMMARY OF 245 AM HST...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 155.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...64 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
Quoting 278. MahFL:



Congratulations on 8 years, I don't personally regard this blog as a teaching/learning blog...
Everyone has their reasons for participating on the Blog and their personal agendas; that is part of being Human and everyone is different.  I enjoy weather issues and  try to learn from this experience as much as I can.  To have a Pro Met like Dr. Master break down the weather for us like he does is a great teaching tool IMHO.
Looks like the deepest, red convection is hitting in the Volcanoes National Park. I would be interested to see a report from there.
Hilo will most definitely miss out completely on any significant affects from the core of this storm.
Quoting 296. opal92nwf:

Hilo will most definitely miss out completely on any significant affects from the core of this storm.


It's the surge/surf that's going to catch people all across the state. . . .
Not only is she bringing all the rough seas that she's built up over the past week, but she ISN'T bringing significant rain to the outer islands. . . should equal out to more than a couple of beach seekers
Hilo is luckily missing all that heavy convection. There's probably massive flooding around Kilauea though.
300. 1344
Quoting 296. opal92nwf:

Hilo will most definitely miss out completely on any significant affects from the core of this storm.


Looks liek tot he worst is a bit south of Hilo.
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -

Schools Superintendent Kathryn Matayoshi announced today that all public schools on Oahu and Kauai will be closed Friday in anticipation of Hurricane Iselle, which is expected to impact the islands as a tropical storm.

Link

Wow. . . didn't realize that Hawaii schools start on August first. Here in New York they go back September 3rd.
302. MahFL
A few 10in spots on the radar indicated total storm rainfall so far.





watching 65 west and 35 west to!
304. MahFL
In the meantime Julio approaches :

Turning on TWC to watch Iselle and there's some NFL predictions for this season...
I checked in earlier and Sam Champion asked some question that made no sense, and Jim didn't even have time to answer it..

What happened to the old weather channel with Marshal Seese and Heather Tesch every morning....Back also when there weren't shows like Turbine Cowboys, AMHQ and stuff..

It's like TWC is slowly turning into "Today"..
306. FOREX
U. S. conducts airstrikes in Iraq. Now back to the tropics.
Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like all the hype that people preached about Hawaii getting hit by 2 hurricanes was bogus. JB on weatherbell is not happy about some of the headlines today with one saying "Hurricane Strikes Hawaii" when the system has 1001 mb pressure.


good morning back to you.
the eastern part of the carib can be a breeding ground sometimes. wonder if this one will develop further downstream?
Wow. . . didn't realize that Hawaii schools start on August first. Here in New York they go back September 3rd.


my kids went back july 28
Levi posted yesterday that we should keep an eye on the wave entering the Caribbean for possible development later on downstream in the Bay of Campeche area; if, he turns out to be correct this far out, that will be quite the well-educated guess.
311. MahFL
Hm, the way Iselle is going she could be quite strong after she clears The Big Island.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Looks like the deepest, red convection is hitting in the Volcanoes National Park. I would be interested to see a report from there.
Looks like the storms tops are under 15,000 and the VIL numbers are all under 5 for the storms. The heaviest rain is offshore and in a very small semicircle from the center. I suspect that Maui and Molokai will end up getting the heaviest rains from Iselle. That's a pretty typical pattern for trade wind storms and should play out nearly the same for Iselle. I don't think the Hana Road will be open for a couple more days after the storm passes.
The Drudge report? CNN? MSNBC? Doc Masters? The only channel I haven't seen hype was actually on FOX News of all places.



.....one cannot possibly complaining of hype!!!!!!....LOLOL.......

Most the radar images cut off at the mountains. The full wide view picks up the precipitation on the other islands.

Quoting 305. JrWeathermanFL:

Turning on TWC to watch Iselle and there's some NFL predictions for this season...
I checked in earlier and Sam Champion asked some question that made no sense, and Jim didn't even have time to answer it..

What happened to the old weather channel with Marshal Seese and Heather Tesch every morning....Back also when there weren't shows like Turbine Cowboys, AMHQ and stuff..

It's like TWC is slowly turning into "Today"..
Sam Champion still thinks that the Miami Heat Play in South Beach when they play all of their home games in the City of Miami. Both him and Al Roka have got to go!
Looks like the storms tops are under 15,000 and the VIL numbers are all under 5 for the storms. The heaviest rain is offshore and in a very small semicircle from the center. I suspect that Maui and Molokai will end up getting the heaviest rains from Iselle. That's a pretty typical pattern for trade wind storms and should play out nearly the same for Iselle. I don't think the Hana Road will be open for a couple more days after the storm passes.

i've a cousin on maui....been following her prep plans and pics of empty shelves in stores and such.....nothing posted yet this morning
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Turning on TWC to watch Iselle and there's some NFL predictions for this season...
I checked in earlier and Sam Champion asked some question that made no sense, and Jim didn't even have time to answer it..

What happened to the old weather channel with Marshal Seese and Heather Tesch every morning....Back also when there weren't shows like Turbine Cowboys, AMHQ and stuff..

It's like TWC is slowly turning into "Today"..
There's really nothing to report from their perspective. It's just some heavy showers and a few wind gusts in Hilo, which doesn't make for much good disaster TV. The only places where there might be things like road washouts and trees down are up on the mountain, and all the roads are closed. Given the history of easterly approaching hurricanes, I imagine that TWC had a fallback plan if it turned out Iselle was a non-event, in TWC terms. There are only so many people in the world that want to watch pictures of palm trees swaying in the wind and rain drops on puddles. :-)
Wave in 30 hrs.
Carolina Low in 84 hrs. GEM with the low.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

HIC001-081530-
/O.CON.PHFO.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-140808T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HAWAII HI-
328 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII
IN HAWAII COUNTY UNTIL 530 AM HST...

A BAND OF INTENSE RAINFALL HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN THE KAU DISTRICT
WITH RAIN RATES GREATER THAN 4 INCHES PER HOUR OCCURRING BETWEEN
VOLCANO AND WOOD VALLEY. RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WAS
OCCURRING FROM HILO TO VOLCANO AND FROM PAHALA TO NAALEHU.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HILO...KEAAU... PAHOA...MOUNTAIN VIEW...GLENWOOD...
VOLCANO...PAHALA...WOOD VALLEY AND NAALEHU. SEVERAL LOW WATER
CROSSINGS ON THE ROAD FROM WOOD VALLEY TO PAHALA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS THE HAWAII BELT
HIGHWAY AT KAWA FLATS NEAR MILE POST 58 AND 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 530 AM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2003 15526 1949 15474 1932 15497 1919 15533
1888 15569 1903 15589

$$

KODAMA





Quoting ricderr:
Looks like the storms tops are under 15,000 and the VIL numbers are all under 5 for the storms. The heaviest rain is offshore and in a very small semicircle from the center. I suspect that Maui and Molokai will end up getting the heaviest rains from Iselle. That's a pretty typical pattern for trade wind storms and should play out nearly the same for Iselle. I don't think the Hana Road will be open for a couple more days after the storm passes.

i've a cousin on maui....been following her prep plans and pics of empty shelves in stores and such.....nothing posted yet this morning
I was vacationing on Maui in 2005 when they had the remnants of Hurricane Kenneth pass through. There were general rains of 10 inches with 15 inches on the Hana side. I, of course, was glued to the blog, listening to the weather radio and the scanner. There were some power outages and considerable road flooding. The people of Maui pretty much went about business as usual. The people at the hotel thought I was pretty funny. I eventually shut everything down, donned my rain suit, and went out hiking. The Hana Road was closed for two days, until the road department could throw some gravel on top of the culverts. I just can't imagine Iselle being much worse.
Quoting 320. Climate175:

Carolina Low in 84 hrs.


I remember earlier this year going down I 95 when the center of what became Arthur was over us and at the time we had no clue.
The Carolina coast sure can produce em :P
12Z NAM at 48 hours
tried looking at the computer models for julio and nothing is there?
Quoting 302. MahFL:

A few 10in spots on the radar indicated total storm rainfall so far.


You can't really trust radar to determine accumulations in this case, Hilo has had more than 2.0 inches of rain, but the radar thinks they've had only 0.10.

Now, consider that Hilo is at a low elevation with such underestimation. There are very high elevations that are seeing enhancement of rainfall intensity due to orographic lift that won't even show up on radar.

Given this, I wouldn't really rely on radar estimations here at all. Its difficult as it is to trust standard rainfall estimations from radar in a tropical system, throw in elevation and huge mountains, and its a whole different story.
There has been very deep convection lifting over the mountains, the rainfall will be very intense.

Rainfall substantially over 10 inches is likely occurring given obstruction of mountains, and the rainfall estimations being much lower than reporting stations are showing.
There are a handful of CoCoRaHS observers on the Big Island that will likely report 24-hour rainfall around 07:00 local time.

www.cococrahs.org

Looks like another system trying to spin up South of the Baja.
Odd satellite presentation of Iselle: dry air from the north, shear and counter-current upper level winds (divergence/outflow from Genevieve?) hold her at bay (apart from Hawaii's high mountains), no?





Quoting 333. barbamz:

Odd satellite presentation of Iselle: dry air from the north, shear and counter-current upper level winds (divergence/outflow from Genevieve?) hold her at bay (apart from Hawaii's high mountains), no?








Remember though, this is dry air aloft, convection can push through from below, there are actually heavy showers moving through the Central islands in deep low level moisture below the drier air. Its likely that shear and the giant mountains are creating this strange effect.

Its possible that the original low level circulation is decoupling over the extremely high terrain, while a low level center may reform on the backside of the island due to a principle of fluid dynamics.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


good morning back to you.


Good morning guys

There are some indications that a low may be trying to form with that tropical wave
And with low shear a moister Caribbean little to no SAL warm waters
Something to keep eye on besides the E Atlantic
MIMMIC TPW show the wave starting to spin up
Vort at 925/850/700mbs show good vort
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Looks like another system trying to spin up South of the Baja.

Umm could it be the thing called 98E near 16.0 109.0W moving NW with estimated winds near 30 MPH
Quoting barbamz:
Odd satellite presentation of Iselle: dry air from the north, shear and counter-current upper level winds (divergence/outflow from Genevieve?) hold her at bay (apart from Hawaii's high mountains), no?





I think Iselle has weakened considerably but still has enough instability and lift to cause orographic thunderstorms. The storms rain themselves out over the mountains so we don't see Iselle advancing on the Island. Iselle looks like a 45-50 mph tropical storm now and may be reduced to a remnant low before it can make it past the Big Island.
Here is the am NCEP Caribbean Desk discussion on the wave entering the Caribbean; looks like a beautiful swath of rain for the parched Lesser Antilles at the moment that is probably welcome in those parts to relieve some of the drought:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
711 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

MODELS CONTINUE MAINTAINING YESTERDAYS FORECAST...SHOWING WAVE
APPROACHING THE ISLAND DURING THE DAY TODAY. ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH THIS SCENARIO...SUGGESTING AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE REGIONS AS WELL. THEY ALSO AGREE...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...IN ACCUMULATIONS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...EXPECTING
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 2-4 INCHES IN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SHORT LIVED ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MAXIMA
OF 1-3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS INCLUDE ST CROIX.

Quoting 334. Jedkins01:



Remember though, this is dry air aloft, convection can push through from below, there are actually heavy showers moving through the Central islands in deep low level moisture below the drier air. Its likely that shear and the giant mountains are creating this strange effect.

Its possible that the original low level circulation is decoupling over the extremely high terrain, while a low level center may reform on the backside of the island due to a principle of fluid dynamics.


Thank you, Jedkins. And yes, ir-loop and visible show low level swirling to the west of the island. Guess we'll see more when sun is up:



Quoting 305. JrWeathermanFL:

Turning on TWC to watch Iselle and there's some NFL predictions for this season...
I checked in earlier and Sam Champion asked some question that made no sense, and Jim didn't even have time to answer it..

What happened to the old weather channel with Marshal Seese and Heather Tesch every morning....Back also when there weren't shows like Turbine Cowboys, AMHQ and stuff..

It's like TWC is slowly turning into "Today"..
Why are you surprised?.They are suppose to be like the today show but with a little bit more weather added.It's sad I know...
Quoting 310. weathermanwannabe:

Levi posted yesterday that we should keep an eye on the wave entering the Caribbean for possible development later on downstream in the Bay of Campeche area; if, he turns out to be correct this far out, that will be quite the well-educated guess.


We saw this happen last year with Barry/Fernand/Ingrid. I don't think any of the models showed their development if I remember correctly, so definitely something to watch out for. The conditions for the wave are good as it crosses the Caribbean, plus it's showing signs of development. Will be interesting to see how it does once it enters the Western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche.
Quoting 315. HurriHistory:

Sam Champion still thinks that the Miami Heat Play in South Beach when they play all of their home games in the City of Miami. Both him and Al Roka have got to go!


Agree. It was almost comical earlier this week when one of the white males said "...and back to my maaaan Al Roker". Roker then said "thanks my maaaan". It was like watching Ward Cleaver and Urkel tying to be cool black guys. The only thing missing was June Cleaver showing up and saying "don't worry, I speak jive."
Quoting Jedkins01:


Just because it isn't bringing violent winds to Hilo, doesn't mean the impacts are not significant, there are reports of removed roofs, and the rainfall intensity moving over those mountains is extreme. There will be very bad mudslides.

Common, you're better than that, don't be ignorant.
Try reading what I wrote. I'm not saying what TWC is doing is right, I'm merely saying how they look at storms. Where did you see me saying I thought that's the way they should handle things? Where are these removed roofs? If they are there, you can bet bet TWC and the other networks would have a remote truck out there. I'm sure there are mudslides and flash floods...just not anywhere they can get them on a live cam, hence they aren't important to TWC.

I don't know how you could write a post like yours and call me ignorant.
ULL and Iselle and/or Julio
Interesting info from CPHC about Kenneth 2005, in that maybe there is potential for heavier rain from Iselle and/or Julio as there was with interaction between a ULL and just the storm remnants from Kenneth, 2005.

IMPACTS: The remnants of Kenneth, primarily a swirl of low clouds, did move onshore of the Big Island during the day on 30 September. As the remnants interacted with the upper level trough over the state, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms did develop across the eastern portion of the Big Island on 30 September. Locally intense rains fell over portions on Oahu during the night of 1 October causing some flash flooding on Kaukonahua Stream and the overflow of Lake Wilson at Wahiawa Dam. Gauges also recorded 6 to 12 inches of rain fell in Nuuanu and Kalihi Valleys. Thunderstorms over eastern and central Kauai also produced very heavy rains during the night of 1 October with a peak 6-hour total of 6.17 inches recorded at Mount Waialeale. Flash flooding occurred on Hanalei River which forced the closure of Kuhio Highway at the Hanalei Bridge.

Also interesting, no mention of 10-15" rainfall from Kenneth in Maui.
That environment in the Bay of Campeche/Lower Gulf, and the bay "effect" with the topography, has seen a few "non-modelled" surprise storms spin up from time to time over the years; I remember one TS Humberto that spun up right along the South Texas coast in around 12 hours several years ago.
hiked up mauna loa as i posted earlier. the trail started in a rain forrest. then up to a moon scape scene then up into a winter wunderland. there was a cabin half way and another on the right near the caldera. the trail was rugged. it took two day hiking all day to get to the summitt.
Genevieve still is black eye candy on her way north:



Maybe good to bear in mind also -
The channels between the islands, especially the Alenuihaha between Maui and Hawaii, create a wind funnel effect.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
tried looking at the computer models for julio and nothing is there?
I don't know why WU seems to have so many problems getting mid-Pacific storms right on their tracking pages. You can view models for Julio at this page.
Quoting 340. washingtonian115:

Why are you surprised?.They are suppose to be like the today show but with a little bit more weather added.It's sad I know...
$$$$$$
Radar estimates already over 11 inches. and the blob is not moving much.

Quoting 340. washingtonian115:

Why are you surprised?.They are suppose to be like the today show but with a little bit more weather added.It's sad I know...
Any word on rainfall totals with Iselle?
Quoting 350. unknowncomic:

$$$$$$
That's true also.Anything to bring in more ratings which equals more money.

Unkonwncomic according to CWG up to 5 inches in some areas.
Link
Quoting 351. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Any homes downstream must be in peril.
More relief for the rain starved?

A GOES-EAST RSO WILL BE IN OPERATION BEGINNING 08 AUGUST 1614Z
THROUGH 09 AUGUST 0314Z...IN SUPPORT OF WFO SAN JUAN...EXPECTING
HEAVY RAINS...PSBL FLASH FLOODING.
Wave at 78hrs, a bit of a boom.
Quoting 339. barbamz:



Thank you, Jedkins. And yes, ir-loop and visible show low level swirling to the west of the island. Guess we'll see more when sun is up:






Did Mauna Loa split the LLC and MLC?
Not finding much in the news yet, but it is just about becoming daylight in Hawaii at this hour. WSJ reported early this morning 18,000 power outages and hydrogen sulfide released from a damaged geothermal plant in SE Big Island district of Puna. A few photos on twitter. Fallen tree and sky during daylight yesterday.
anyone have the long range CFS model? just curious if it shows any CV development
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Since this mornings U.S. airstrikes in Iraq, the Tropical Storm Iselle making landall in Hawaii has been dropped from the World News.

The tropical storm was their big story, but how quickly they move on to something else when something more news worthy comes along.
365. JRRP


There is a little bit of lower level vorticiity with that wave SW of PR and a nice little "spot" of convection that just fired over the past few hours in the wave right at the cross hairs at 15N-65W; interesting:



Do you think Iselle's convection is literally being held back by the massive mountain while the centre haplessly swirls into hostile sheer and dry air?

I'd hazard a guess that she'll be done as a tropical entity by day's end if this keeps up.
368. FOREX
Quoting 341. Envoirment:



We saw this happen last year with Barry/Fernand/Ingrid. I don't think any of the models showed their development if I remember correctly, so definitely something to watch out for. The conditions for the wave are good as it crosses the Caribbean, plus it's showing signs of development. Will be interesting to see how it does once it enters the Western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche.


Right now it looks like it is moving NW, and won't make it to the Western carib.