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Hurricane Iselle Headed Towards Hawaii; Bertha Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2014

Hurricane Iselle continued to intensify overnight, reaching Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds at 11 am EDT on Monday. Iselle is likely at peak intensity, since ocean temperatures beneath the storm are now 26°C, which is marginal for maintaining a hurricane. Interestingly, plots of Maximum Potential Intensity from the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies show that the Iselle should only be able to maintain Category 2 strength with these ocean temperatures and the current atmospheric background conditions, so the storm is definitely over-achieving. Iselle is headed westwards at 10 mph towards Hawaii, and could affect the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical storm by Thursday night. Satellite images show an impressive storm with a large eye, good symmetry, and plenty of upper-level outflow. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall qualify Iselle to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as "annular". Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger, maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. The latest SHIPS model output indicates that Iselle has passed the initial screening step to be considered an annular hurricane, and the model's "Annular Hurricane Index" shows a high level of annularity for the hurricane. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular hurricanes. The most recent annular hurricane in the Eastern Pacific that I am aware of was Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth of November 2011.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Iselle from approximately 6 pm EDT August 3, 2014. At the time, Iselle was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Iselle was showing an annual structure--a lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth of November 22, 2011--the most recent annular hurricane to appear in the Eastern Pacific.

Forecast for Iselle
Wind shear is expected to stay light to moderate for the next four days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 26°C. However, the atmosphere surrounding Iselle will begin to dry considerably beginning on Tuesday, which should induce a steady weakening trend Tuesday through Thursday. By the time Iselle reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Thursday night, rapid weakening may be occurring, but Iselle could still be a strong tropical storm, capable of generating dangerous heavy rains. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii, though, due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. It is hurricanes approaching from the south that represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters' jet is scheduled to fly a dropsonde mission on Tuesday evening out of Honolulu, and an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly a low-level mission into the hurricane early Wednesday morning.

After Iselle comes Julio
After Iselle finishes its close encounter with the Hawaiian Islands late this week, the islands need be concerned with yet another tropical cyclone: Tropical Storm Julio, which formed in the Eastern Pacific south of Baja Mexico this morning. Satellite loops show that Julio is headed westwards towards Hawaii on a path very similar to Iselle's, and the storm should be able to take advantage of moderate wind shear and warm ocean temperatures to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Long range forecasts from the GFS and European models have been consistently predicting that Julio will pass very close to Hawaii on Sunday night and be stronger than Iselle. It's been a very active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, which has seen 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes so far in 2014. On average, we expect to see 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 4 in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Bertha.

Bertha a hurricane
In the Atlantic, Hurricane Bertha took advantage of decreasing wind shear and a moister atmosphere to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds as of 11 am EDT Monday. Visible satellite loops on Monday morning showed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over Berth's core, which is a typical feature of intensifying tropical storms about to reach hurricane strength. However, Bertha's satellite presentation was probably the lamest I've even seen for a hurricane, with only a small, misshapen area of heavy thunderstorms, and little in the way of spiral bands. Bertha is headed northwards, and will pass midway between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. After a short stint as a hurricane later today and on Tuesday, high wind shear and very cool waters of 20°C will convert Bertha into a powerful extratropical storm on Wednesday, halting the intensification process. Bertha will not be a threat to any more land areas, though its remnants could bring some heavy rain showers and tropical storm-force winds gusts to Southeast Newfoundland on Thursday. Along with Hurricane Arthur, Hurricane Bertha gives us two Atlantic hurricanes so far this year, matching the total number of hurricanes during the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. The second (and final) hurricane of the 2013 season (Ingrid) did not arrive until September 14. On average, the second hurricane of the Atlantic season arrives on August 28. The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)

Weakening Typhoon Halong headed towards Japan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Halong, formerly a mighty Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds, has weakened significantly to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds on Monday morning. Satellite loops show that Halong's eye is no longer distinct the eyewall has collapsed, but the typhoon still has a large area of very intense eyewall thunderstorms. Halong is expected to affect Southern Japan as a Category 1 typhoon late this week.


Figure 4. The NOAA P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft, N42RF and N43RF. Image credit: Alan Goldstein/Terry Schricker.

A dangerous flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 25 years later on The Weather Channel
Twenty five years ago, on September 15, 1989, the fifteen members of the crew of NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N42RF very nearly became Hurricane Hugo's first victims. Expecting to encounter a powerful yet manageable Category 3 hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, the plane instead hit extreme turbulence in an intensifying Category 5 storm, and very nearly did not make it out. I was the Flight Meteorologist on that mission, and photographed the wild events of that unforgettable flight. My remarkable story of that flight into Hurricane Hugo is a must-read for all who follow these great storms. On Monday, August 4, 2014, The Weather Channel will be showing a 3-minute piece on that flight, which will be airing at 3:40 pm, 4:40 pm, and times later in the day. I flew to Tampa in June to help film the piece, which interviews myself and two members of that mission who still work for the NOAA Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Project Manager Jim McFadden, and the Science and Engineering Division chief Alan Goldstein. The piece will also play again on the actual 25th anniversary of the flight, on September 15, 2014.

Jeff Masters

Heavy Rain from TS Bertha
Heavy Rain from TS Bertha
Looking out our front window you can see how the rains were coming down this afternoon from TS Bertha
Bertha
Bertha

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 488. BayFog:

The eye of Iselle appears to be following just south (the warmer side) of the 27 degree contour which ought to allow it to survive. I don't know what the subsurface temps might be...does anyone? The waters near Hawaii have been significantly warmer than they were last year. The 27 degree contour goes all the way to the islands. Didn't an annular hurricane get all the way to Spain some years back over 24 degree waters and ridiculous wind shear?

Hurricane Vince, 2005. Annularity is debatable but it was certainly an anomaly.


Quoting 491. GeoffreyWPB:




Looks like a buzz saw. I wonder if we will see any Fujiwara?
Quoting 501. winter123:


Hurricane Vince, 2005. Annularity is debatable but it was certainly an anomaly.



Vince was pretty cool... and yet another anomaly in a year of anomalies...
I just talked to my good friend on Oahu and the word there is to expect tropical storm condition on Thursday. I lived in Oahu durning Iniki. The blaring sirens woke us up early in the AM. We did more damage prepping the house then the storm did as it brushed by us. Side note; I was kayaking/camping the Na Pali, Kauai a week before Iniki hit. We even ran into the jurrasic Park film crew at the airport. As we know, Iniki did a lot of damage to Kauai.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL032014) 20140805 0000 UTC

LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 73.4W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 26.9N LONM12 = 73.6W DIRM12 = 358DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 73.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM


Link

Don't see how they kept it at hurricane strength.
Hey all! I see Bertha is looking a little worse tonight. Anyways, I won't be on much over the next three weeks, as we are preparing for a big vacation. We were also vacationing close to home last week, so that's why I wasn't on then.
I know these are a while out, but perhaps hinting at an increase in activity soon (Both show/hint at about 3 potential systems in about 7-10 days out)?

GFS/CMC:









that area just east of Jacksonville is actually more interesting than Bertha


nice eye to this hurricane
510. FOREX
Quoting 508. floridaT:

that area just east of Jacksonville is actually more interesting than Bertha



I'm watching the central Gulf, hoping for some development. Not holding my breath though.
Somewhere in this image is a hurricane...


Quoting 510. FOREX:



I'm watching the central Gulf, hoping for some development. Not holding my breath though.
I thought last night that the weather that slipped just sw of Marco Island would do something, but it turned out it all moved Ne
513. FOREX
Quoting 512. floridaT:


I thought last night that the weather that slipped just sw of Marco Island would do something, but it turned out it all moved Ne

I was watching that area also. there is a flare up in the central gulf and there was a 1014 low on the surface map a few hours ago. So, just watching for now.

Quoting 513. FOREX:

I was watching that area also. there is a flare up in the central gulf and there was a 1014 low on the surface map a few hours ago. So, just watching for now.
OK I see what your looking at. So much instability . Looks like a quick homegrown could flare up.
For those of you who want a good CV system, the CFS has quite a nice one. Brings it to hurricane strength from the get go and generally maintaining it...



Until...



It hits the US/Canada as a 972mb hurricane.

In all serious though, the models are starting to hint at a pick up in activity. Will be an interesting few weeks ahead.
Quoting 515. Envoirment:

For those of you who want a good CV system, the CFS has quite a nice one. Brings it to hurricane strength from the get go and generally maintaining it...



Until...



It hits the US/Canada as a 972mb hurricane.

In all serious though, the models are starting to hint at a pick up in activity. Will be an interesting few weeks ahead.
hey at least we will see one good CV hurricane :) beats the last 2 years. maybe we will see another one! if we get 2, i will be very happy.
Correct me if i am wrong, but weren't the 1900s, 1910s, and the first half of the 1920s also a very slow period? Even this period managed to produce some memorable hurricanes like in 1909, 1915, 1919, and 1921.
Quoting 453. ScooterXX7:



I don't mean to single you out, CybrTeddy, but I've seen it in the last two weeks accompanied by ridiculous statements by some people who claim they will give up on following the Atlantic, and even some who have implied that the Atlantic season may simply die out! It's ludicrous. I wonder how many people have researched past hurricane seasons. The 1970's and 1980's weren't exactly the bastion for activity, yet produced memorable cyclones. It's absolutely normal for basins to undergo quiet periods of activity. There will come a summer where the shear will be low enough, the SAL won't be as prevalent and conditions will be favorable. Just have patience.


Quoting 474. Astrometeor:



That loop seems to show she's shrinking. Hopefully she just doesn't (or does if you're Hawaii) go "poof" into nonexistence.

It was a pretty large circulation to begin with. A little shrinkage could just mean its drawing itself tighter. Certainly the eye remains large indicating that the eyewall winds must be howling.
Quoting 504. KeyWestwx:

I just talked to my good friend on Oahu and the word there is to expect tropical storm condition on Thursday. I lived in Oahu durning Iniki. The blaring sirens woke us up early in the AM. We did more damage prepping the house then the storm did as it brushed by us. Side note; I was kayaking/camping the Na Pali, Kauai a week before Iniki hit. We even ran into the jurrasic Park film crew at the airport. As we know, Iniki did a lot of damage to Kauai.


I was living with my buddy near Punahou. It was my final semester at UH. My brothers were in town from NJ. I remember the sirens too! Only time I had ever heard them (other than test).
Quoting 455. TimSoCal:



Looks more like a tropical cyclone than Bertha. Look at that banding!
Think the word is bonding,instead of banding.
Quoting 488. BayFog:

The eye of Iselle appears to be following just south (the warmer side) of the 27 degree contour which ought to allow it to survive. I don't know what the subsurface temps might be...does anyone? The waters near Hawaii have been significantly warmer than they were last year. The 27 degree contour goes all the way to the islands. Didn't an annular hurricane get all the way to Spain some years back over 24 degree waters and ridiculous wind shear?
oceanic heat content is low along the remaining path. Around 25 right now dropping to near 0. This storm has already exceeded the theoretical max potentional.

Source is from cmiss tropical site
As I recall, at the start of the last big El Ninos, hurricanes hit the Hawaiian Islands and their remnant copious moisture entrained into the westerlies, kicking off the rainy season in a big way in California. With all those storms out there, and perhaps some typhoon further west, seems it's only a matter of time now that it's already August. We can only hope.
523. JLPR2
Even though Bertha was an ugly hurricane (I say was cause there is no way a storm can have H winds with an exposed LLC), it was one and so far 2014 has produced the same amount of hurricanes that the entire 2013 H season.

Go 2014!
Quoting 515. Envoirment:

For those of you who want a good CV system, the CFS has quite a nice one. Brings it to hurricane strength from the get go and generally maintaining it...



Until...



It hits the US/Canada as a 972mb hurricane.

In all serious though, the models are starting to hint at a pick up in activity. Will be an interesting few weeks ahead.
Good evening. I typed a comment about this very thing yesterday..The Atlantic will in my opinion be more active than some predicted...Myself included..Nino,s lagging, and MDR will have dry air and subsidence issues, but even with all that, it will have activity.
Quoting 515. Envoirment:

For those of you who want a good CV system, the CFS has quite a nice one. Brings it to hurricane strength from the get go and generally maintaining it...



Until...



It hits the US/Canada as a 972mb hurricane.

In all serious though, the models are starting to hint at a pick up in activity. Will be an interesting few weeks ahead.
CFS has been showing uptick in activity since last month.... mostly starting about a week from now.... haven't looked at long-range GFS recently to see what it's saying, though.
Quoting 521. abcdeer:

oceanic heat content is low along the remaining path. Around 25 right now dropping to near 0. This storm has already exceeded the theoretical max potentional.

Source is from cmiss tropical site
It's got nearly 1000 miles of ocean to cross???
Quoting 519. HaoleboySurfEC:



I was living with my buddy near Punahou. It was my final semester at UH. My brothers were in town from NJ. I remember the sirens too! Only time I had ever heard them (other than test).


I got out of Kauai a day before Iniki hit (barely made it out of Princeville).
I still have 2 houses on Maui. None of my neighbors take hurricanes seriously.
528. csmda
Quoting 510. FOREX:



I'm watching the central Gulf, hoping for some development. Not holding my breath though.


No thank you!

I have tried to add a pic to my profile twice now and it still isn't working.
Good nights bloggers, I come back tomorrow evening or later
Quoting 523. JLPR2:

Even though Bertha was an ugly hurricane (I say was cause there is no way a storm can have H winds with an exposed LLC), it was one and so far 2014 has produced the same amount of hurricanes that the entire 2013 H season.

Go 2014!

Eh?


Quoting 521. abcdeer:

oceanic heat content is low along the remaining path. Around 25 right now dropping to near 0. This storm has already exceeded the theoretical max potentional.

Source is from cmiss tropical site

I checked the site...nothing evident. Perhaps you could elaborate.
Convection building near the center.

533. silas

Quoting tornadodude:
Somewhere in this image is a hurricane...

Really??? Where?
534. SLU
Sorry but they're gonna have to recalibrate the SFMR on the hurricane hunter aircraft because this isn't a hurricane. This could barely qualify as an invest on a good day based off satellite pics alone.

Quoting 532. Grothar:

Convection building near the center.




Oo, is this like that time earlier in Bertha's life when you said watch for the little arms of convection? From what I remember, the little armed turned in to a large blow up of convection.

Edit: Just as I post, the new frame comes in on the image and the little arm is indeed starting to blow up! :)
Quoting 535. Envoirment:



Oo, is this like that time earlier in Bertha's life when you said watch for the little arms of convection? From what I remember, the little armed turned in to a large blow up of convection.
New location, same ole Bertha....
Could Iselle be stronger?
Quoting SLU:
Sorry but they're gonna have to recalibrate the SFMR on the hurricane hunter aircraft because this isn't a hurricane. This could barely qualify as an invest on a good day based off satellite pics alone.




And it's about two meger. With a cold front
A true trash hurricane if I ever saw one! lol

Reminds me of Kyle 2008. Never really looked like a real hurricane.
Quoting pablosyn:
Could Iselle be stronger?



Best track. Had it still at 120kt I think. HI. Needs two watch out. For a march stronger hurricane if this dos not start two weak in. Soon
Quoting 537. pablosyn:

Could Iselle be stronger?

Iselle reminds me of Flossie 2007 not only of it's exact intensity but that steady approach towards the Big Island. Looks like it will weaken a lot though.

Flossie actually came very close while still at considerable hurricane strength.
Quoting 539. opal92nwf:

A true trash hurricane if I ever saw one! lol

Reminds me of Kyle 2008. Never really looked like a real hurricane.


I don't know, looks like she's a little under the weather....

I'll see myself out haha
A new weather disaster flick coming up....

I've read every post for the last 7 days and so far every single one of us who's made a forecast on Bertha has been wrong.....except for me.:)
.
Bertha's history now...time to turn our eyes west...west of west.
Quoting 488. BayFog:

The eye of Iselle appears to be following just south (the warmer side) of the 27 degree contour which ought to allow it to survive. I don't know what the subsurface temps might be...does anyone? The waters near Hawaii have been significantly warmer than they were last year. The 27 degree contour goes all the way to the islands. Didn't an annular hurricane get all the way to Spain some years back over 24 degree waters and ridiculous wind shear?


Vince and essentially all of the non-Caribbean Greek Storms.
Delta, Epsilon, Zeta. . . . they all formed against all odds, and non of them ever saw SSTs over 25 Celcius (as low as 22C).

Honestly, the NHC Forecast Discussions from that time period are my favorite to go back and re-read. The NHC was so done with the season by that point.

I was actually going through them just this morning, just for fun. These are some of the better Forecast Discussion quotations:

October 9th:
"IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION." Link

November 23rd:
"THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END" Link

December 4th:
"THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR." Link

"HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?" Link

December 8th:
"I HOPE THIS IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON." Link

December 30th:
"WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY
OVER THE CYCLONE...SO ZETA PROBABLY HAS A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT." Link

January 4th:
" ZETA AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT
THINGS TO SAY." Link

January 6th:
"UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY." Link

. . . . . . And that's just the Greek storms. Them trying to forecast the Category Fives was amusing in itself. The forecasts would call for the storm to max out at 125kts (145mph) in one advisory, and then the storm would be upgraded to 140kts/160mph in the next. . . Katrina, Rita, Wilma-- all of them. (Sorry in advance that this is going to be a long post)
Nothing huge, but I'd say Iselle has weakened to a 135 mph system as opposed to maintaining 140 mph winds. This morning, the system had a closed ring of -70 to -75C convection whereas now, cloudtops are warmer than -70C.


On the last image I saw a rather ugly Bertha in her night cap and fist in the air saying it isn't over...



Anyway, I really should be going to bed, night everyone!
Quoting 515. Envoirment:

For those of you who want a good CV system, the CFS has quite a nice one. Brings it to hurricane strength from the get go and generally maintaining it...



Until...



It hits the US/Canada as a 972mb hurricane.

In all serious though, the models are starting to hint at a pick up in activity. Will be an interesting few weeks ahead. It all has to do with the jet stream. I am patient.
It all has to do with the jet stream. I am patient.
Bertha the mutant hurricane.

canary in the cave of a sick planet
Quoting 535. Envoirment:



Oo, is this like that time earlier in Bertha's life when you said watch for the little arms of convection? From what I remember, the little armed turned in to a large blow up of convection.

Edit: Just as I post, the new frame comes in on the image and the little arm is indeed starting to blow up! :)


You have a good memory. It was the night everyone had left except for a few of us diehards, and I said it would be declared at 11PM, and it was.
Strong convection beginning to rebuild

554. LBAR
Quoting 534. SLU:

Sorry but they're gonna have to recalibrate the SFMR on the hurricane hunter aircraft because this isn't a hurricane. This could barely qualify as an invest on a good day based off satellite pics alone.




AMEN and AMEN!
556. JLPR2
Quoting 530. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Eh?





Those are still semi exposed, show me one with the entire circulation exposed like Bertha.

Quoting Grothar:
Strong convection beginning to rebuild

Yeah, it's a real monster, no doubt about it...

What a sight it would be standing in the center of Iselle.
Quoting 531. BayFog:


I checked the site...nothing evident. Perhaps you could elaborate.
click on Iselle, on the new window that opens; at the top you will see Satellite Imagery, under that there's Ocean: next to that, the 3rd tab you can click on OHC (RSMAS). That's where I got my info from. All the way at the end of the same line you will see MPI (Emanuel) MSP and Wind. Hope that isn't to confusing, I'm on my iPad and can't link it.
Quoting 558. hydrus:




Eye sea what you did there, hydrus.
Quoting 552. Grothar:



You have a good memory. It was the night everyone had left except for a few of us diehards, and I said it would be declared at 11PM, and it was.

I don't recall that.
I do recall when I was the sole voice definitively calling for a TD at 11 that night....4 hours before it happened. Not 4 minutes.
Quoting CosmicEvents:

I don't recall that.
I do recall when I was the sole voice definitively calling for a TD at 11 that night....4 hours before it happened. Not 4 minutes.



Yeah I actually called it back in 2004... So, like, 10 years before it happened..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A new weather disaster flick coming up....

OMG!!! That's almost like...well, I don't know...almost two Berthas put together!!! Oh, the humanity!!!
Aloha Gang -

Looks like 4 years after leaving S. Florida....Iam getting my first Hawaii cane...
Not much panic yet. News is saying watch watch.

Wet windy conditions expected but not much more.

Watching iselle - She is so compact...reminds me of andrew...tiny little perfect buzz saw.
Quoting 543. GeoffreyWPB:

A new weather disaster flick coming up....


OKay.... if u can't have real wx excitement.... lol ...

And was that a firenado in the middle of all the rainados????

Quoting 556. JLPR2:



Those are still semi exposed, show me one with the entire circulation exposed like Bertha.



Do I win anything?

Long way out but interesting....
Quoting 566. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do I win anything?


No.
If we were to judge by Iselle satellite image of your eye ... Iselle would now have a beautiful category 5. Look at her. It is equal to Celia in 2010. Lovely to see!
Quoting 546. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nothing huge, but I'd say Iselle has weakened to a 135 mph system as opposed to maintaining 140 mph winds. This morning, the system had a closed ring of -70 to -75C convection whereas now, cloudtops are warmer than -70C.




Still quite the beauty.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do I win anything?



Eh, even I don't think it's fair to use Sandy as an example. At that point, Sandy was becoming baroclinically enhanced into a horrendous freak of a storm. Ingrid last year is probably a better example. Fully exposed, still a hurricane.
Quoting 572. CybrTeddy:



Eh, even I don't think it's fair to use Sandy as an example. At that point, Sandy was becoming baroclinically enhanced into a horrendous freak of a storm.
But at this point Sandy was still very much a hurricane.... so very valid example, especially given it was also interacting w/ an approaching trough as Bertha seems to be doing tonight....
Well, apparently I have too much ozone here. Antarctica needs to take some of it.

ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON- WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...CENTERVILLE...FRANKLIN... BRENTWOOD...
MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY
251 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION HAS ISSUED A
CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY FOR THE NASHVILLE AREA...IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR OZONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. GROUND LEVEL
OZONE CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY
STANDARDS. THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ACTIVE
CHILDREN AND ADULTS, AND PEOPLE WITH A RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS
ASTHMA, SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND
CONSERVATION SITE AT HTTP://WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT.
rubbish-trash heap-junk pile-waste bucket piece of cloud:
Haha NHC what a joke...
I notice this a lot with the SPC and some of their severe weather predictions, but do you think the NHC maybe jumped the gun on making Bertha a hurricane, and now are hesitant to downgrade because of that?
579. JLPR2
Quoting 566. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do I win anything?




You got me there, you deserve a cookie. XD

Just something to add:
-Earl was firing heavy convection on the NE side of LLC.
-Nate was being enhanced by the coast of Mexico in the BOC.
-Sandy was starting its transition into an hybrid system.

No hurricane under normal circumstances will let its LLC slip away from its convection completely.
The morning fog is more organized....

Quoting 574. Astrometeor:

Well, apparently I have too much ozone here. Antarctica needs to take some of it
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION HAS ISSUED A
CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY FOR THE NASHVILLE AREA...IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR OZONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. GROUND LEVEL
OZONE CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY
STANDARDS. THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ACTIVE
CHILDREN
AND ADULTS, AND PEOPLE WITH A RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS
ASTHMA, SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND
CONSERVATION SITE AT HTTP://WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT.



I just realized something about this warning text. Check the bold. The general public won't be affected, but active people will be. Calling the general public fat and lazy now, are we? Bold move TN.
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

Bertha certainly does not look like a typical hurricane in satellite
imagery this evening.
The center has become partially exposed to
the northwest of the deep convection. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that recently investigated the cyclone observed
flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde winds that all supported hurricane
intensity late this afternoon.
Since that time, the organization
has degraded a little and it is possible that Bertha has weakened
below hurricane strength.
However, new convection has recently
formed just east of the center near where the strongest winds were
measured earlier. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65
kt. This could be generous, but it is best to maintain hurricane
status until the the next Hurricane Hunter aircraft examines the
storm around 0600 UTC.


Bertha is forecast to gradually weaken during the next day or two
while it moves into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear and over decreasing sea surface temperatures. On
Wednesday, the cyclone is expected to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough and Bertha is forecast to become an
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic shortly thereafter.

Fixes from the aircraft show that Bertha is moving a little faster
and has turned north-northeastward this evening. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. Bertha is expected to accelerate
northeastward during the next day or two between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough moving off the
northeast United States coast. After Bertha becomes a post-tropical
cyclone in 48 to 72 hours, it is forecast to turn east-northeastward
in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the north Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 36.6N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 39.3N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 42.1N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 47.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 48.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 49.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
@post 582

That was the most apologetic-sounding discussion of a storm ever. It's almost as if they're talking to us. "Hello, dark meteorological corner of the internet, we know you'll eternally hate us for this, but....Bertha's still a hurricane because there is no definitive data that says it's not."

I kinda feel bad for them.
Quoting 582. TropicalAnalystwx13:

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

Bertha certainly does not look like a typical hurricane in satellite
imagery this evening.
The center has become partially exposed to
the northwest of the deep convection. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that recently investigated the cyclone observed
flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde winds that all supported hurricane
intensity late this afternoon.
Since that time, the organization
has degraded a little and it is possible that Bertha has weakened
below hurricane strength.
However, new convection has recently
formed just east of the center near where the strongest winds were
measured earlier. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65
kt. This could be generous, but it is best to maintain hurricane
status until the the next Hurricane Hunter aircraft examines the
storm around 0600 UTC.


Bertha is forecast to gradually weaken during the next day or two
while it moves into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear and over decreasing sea surface temperatures. On
Wednesday, the cyclone is expected to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough and Bertha is forecast to become an
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic shortly thereafter.

Fixes from the aircraft show that Bertha is moving a little faster
and has turned north-northeastward this evening. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. Bertha is expected to accelerate
northeastward during the next day or two between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough moving off the
northeast United States coast. After Bertha becomes a post-tropical
cyclone in 48 to 72 hours, it is forecast to turn east-northeastward
in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the north Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 36.6N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 39.3N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 42.1N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 47.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 48.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 49.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown


Thats so stupid, why is it best? So the hurricane can last longer?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Haha NHC what a joke...


Tell me again, who's the blogger on the internet and who's the group of experienced professionals with numerous degrees? Calling them a "joke" only denigrates you and adds absolutely nothing to the discussion.
Quoting 578. tornadodude:

I notice this a lot with the SPC and some of their severe weather predictions, but do you think the NHC maybe jumped the gun on making Bertha a hurricane, and now are hesitant to downgrade because of that?

No, because the NHC didn't jump the gun. Recon found flight-level winds of 100 mph and surface winds of 80-85 mph. Recon this afternoon found surface winds of 75 mph. Is it likely since the storm has weakened then? Yes. But as the NHC said in their discussion, it's best just to wait until 6z when the next recon investigates before downgrading.
Quoting 558. hydrus:


What a sight it would be standing in the center of Iselle.


It certainly is an impressive one to look at!

Seems Bertha had it's moment and now that time has passed. Looks horrible, even considering the recent blowup. Looked best leaving Hispanola/SE Bahamas and as soon as it was declared, it immediately began degrading. Oh well. Still a quick start to '14. 3 td's, 2 canes. We have one heck of a bathtub of water sitting in the wcarib/gom/Bahamas, so I would be hesitant to make any judgement just yet. I'd say there's better than a 50% chance a developing system get's into aforementioned waters. We've seen all season, the lower shear, greater instability, high tchp... It's seems bound to happen. This is the warmest I've seen this region since '05. I'd keep an eye open this season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Tell me again, who's the blogger on the internet and who's the group of experienced professionals with numerous degrees? Calling them a "joke" only denigrates you and adds absolutely nothing to the discussion.



well said Teddy
Because I can't think of what else to post....





100th blog comes out in <5 minutes. :D (it'll be #99 on counter, but counter starts at 0)
nhc think julio will take a more northern track. before models had it going just south of the big island. now models show it going over or just north of the big island
Quoting 589. Astrometeor:

Because I can't think of what else to post....





100th blog comes out in <5 minutes. :D (it'll be #99 on counter, but counter starts at 0)

have your 10k th comment on there too
592. JLPR2
Bertha was definitely a hurricane earlier (heck, I thought they would put the winds at 90mph at 11am), but come on!
That was then, this is now...


Quoting 585. CybrTeddy:



Tell me again, who's the blogger on the internet and who's the group of experienced professionals with numerous degrees? Calling them a "joke" only denigrates you and adds absolutely nothing to the discussion.


Bertha has made a lot of bitter folks this hurricane season..and its not even Aug 10th yet..LOL

I find it funny myself reading these comments..a lot of people have gone after the NHC today behind a keyboard...I'm just adding lemon marinated crow to the menu tomorrow because they can't seem to let it go and just move on..

Quoting 559. abcdeer:

click on Iselle, on the new window that opens; at the top you will see Satellite Imagery, under that there's Ocean: next to that, the 3rd tab you can click on OHC (RSMAS). That's where I got my info from. All the way at the end of the same line you will see MPI (Emanuel) MSP and Wind. Hope that isn't to confusing, I'm on my iPad and can't link it.

No, you described it right. I found it. It will be interesting to see how an annular storm will respond given these conditions. Maybe we'll learn something new.
Quoting 577. VAbeachhurricanes:

Haha NHC what a joke...
Calling the NHC a joke is at the very least inappropriate, and realistically offensive..Surprised to see you post something in such poor taste.
Quoting 587. GatorWX:



It certainly is an impressive one to look at!

Seems Bertha had it's moment and now that time has passed. Looks horrible, even considering the recent blowup. Looked best leaving Hispanola/SE Bahamas and as soon as it was declared, it immediately began degrading. Oh well. Still a quick start to '14. 3 td's, 2 canes. We have one heck of a bathtub of water sitting in the wcarib/gom/Bahamas, so I would be hesitant to make any judgement just yet. I'd say there's better than a 50% chance a developing system get's into aforementioned waters. We've seen all season, the lower shear, greater instability, high tchp... It's seems bound to happen. This is the warmest I've seen this region since '05. I'd keep an eye open this season.
Bertha looked better east of the Antilles..:)
Quoting 581. Astrometeor:



I just realized something about this warning text. Check the bold. The general public won't be affected, but active people will be. Calling the general public fat and lazy now, are we? Bold move TN.


The data supports that statement as well. :)
598. flsky
I'll wait for the reviews from you guys that go see it before I shell out the price of admission. I don't have strong hope....

Quoting 565. BahaHurican:

OKay.... if u can't have real wx excitement.... lol ...

And was that a firenado in the middle of all the rainados????


Setting sun reflecting off the deep stadium eye of Iselle.
Quoting 582. TropicalAnalystwx13:

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

Bertha certainly does not look like a typical hurricane in satellite
imagery this evening.
The center has become partially exposed to
the northwest of the deep convection. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that recently investigated the cyclone observed
flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde winds that all supported hurricane
intensity late this afternoon.
Since that time, the organization
has degraded a little and it is possible that Bertha has weakened
below hurricane strength.
However, new convection has recently
formed just east of the center near where the strongest winds were
measured earlier. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65
kt. This could be generous, but it is best to maintain hurricane
status until the the next Hurricane Hunter aircraft examines the
storm around 0600 UTC.


Bertha is forecast to gradually weaken during the next day or two
while it moves into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear and over decreasing sea surface temperatures. On
Wednesday, the cyclone is expected to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough and Bertha is forecast to become an
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic shortly thereafter.

Fixes from the aircraft show that Bertha is moving a little faster
and has turned north-northeastward this evening. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. Bertha is expected to accelerate
northeastward during the next day or two between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough moving off the
northeast United States coast. After Bertha becomes a post-tropical
cyclone in 48 to 72 hours, it is forecast to turn east-northeastward
in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the north Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 36.6N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 39.3N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 42.1N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 47.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 48.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 49.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown



This definitely deserves a bump...
Quoting 557. sar2401:

Yeah, it's a real monster, no doubt about it...
I see....Good thing I live in the mountains...:)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats so stupid, why is it best? So the hurricane can last longer?
The NHC does't like to change classification at night, absent either public safety issues or clear changes in the intensity of a storm. In this case, it's likely that Bertha's not a hurricane but that can be be better confirmed by recon in the morning. Changing Bertha's status then doesn't hurt anyone. They don't get a bonus if the storm lasts longer. They are looking at a lot more and a lot better data than I have. I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Quoting 595. hydrus:

Calling the NHC a joke is at the very least inappropriate, and realistically offensive..Surprised to see you post something in such poor taste.


How is it offensive? In my opinion it is a joke that they still maintained this a hurricane. It reeks on satellite presentation, and the last 3 passes they found 0 winds at flight level of hurricane strength. With the 20% reduction that makes surface winds even lower. Great they have degrees and are professionals. Does not mean they cannot be wrong. They are still calling this a hurricane just because 8 hours ago it was one based on recon? At least then the center wasn't exposed with only a small core of not even -60 degree cloud tops to its east.

Quoting hydrus:
I see....Good thing I live in the mountains...:)
Yes. One never knows if Bertha will make a hard left and come ashore somewhere with 900 miles of you, which could cause big problems with shortages of plywood and bottled water. :-)

How it's gone with Bertha really does show how hurricane seasons has deteriorated. We now spend time seriously discussing what would happen if a weak low somehow combined with a weak tropical cyclone and how that would affect everywhere from Florida to Cape Cod. Let's face it, with Bertha's sadly declining condition and the fact that most f the actual storm conditions are offset to the east, far away from where it would affect any land mass, would many people even notice if Bertha did make landfall, compared to a normal summer cold front?
Flooding in Naples, FL today..

Here comes Iselle!

I hope the NHC downgrades Bertha at 2am or some might just riot..I can imagine the emails they must have gotten today..

image stolen :)


Night all..and for those mad about Bertha, I hate to inform you but the Navgem was showing Bertha part 2 ..happy tracking :)



Holy cow!
Amazing



Absolutely incredible.
That was the most stunning view of a tropical cyclone I've ever seen. It's one thing to see in on satellite from geo-stationary orbit, it's another thing to look down straight into the eye of a Category 4 hurricane from 400 kilometers straight above.
Could Bertha actually be downgraded in post season analysis? I can't recall any instances like that.
damn you guys are fast lol
Quoting hydrus:
Long way out but interesting....
I guess as long as we see these typhoons in the Pacific we can expect to see more of the anomalous cold fronts penetrating to the Gulf and Atlantic this year. This will keep the Gulf and most of the Caribbean shut down for most of August. The only real chance for a hurricane is another Arthur forming off one of these fronts as it makes its way out into the Atlantic but even that is not looking all too good. Unfortunately, CV hurricanes are likely to be repeats of Bertha. It's not that CV hurricanes won't happen this year, it's just that, by October, we may wish they would just stop. :-)
Bertha looking horrible now you can see the swirl on the sat pics
Quoting 614. wxgeek723:

Could Bertha actually be downgraded in post season analysis? I can't recall any instances like that.


I don't know why they would downgrade it -- there was evidence straight from recon. 100mph flight level winds, uncontaminated SFMR of 80-85 mph. It was better organized this morning, so it definitely deserved hurricane status this morning.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
That was the most stunning view of a tropical cyclone I've ever seen. It's one thing to see in on satellite from geo-stationary orbit, it's another thing to look down straight into the eye of a Category 4 hurricane from 400 kilometers straight above.
Looks like a high dive right into the center of the eye. I'm glad we have one storm that makes such images worthwhile.
Quoting 597. Naga5000:



The data supports that statement as well. :)


Omg Naga, lmao. Good thing I don't match the data then. Slim and healthy.
Quoting ncstorm:
I hope the NHC downgrades Bertha at 2am or some might just riot..I can imagine the emails they must have gotten today..

image stolen :)


Night all..and for those mad about Bertha, I hate to inform you but the Navgem was showing Bertha part 2 ..happy tracking :)





Your incessant badgering of us who are questioning the NHC's classification of Bertha is a little odd. There is absolutely nothing wrong with questioning their decisions. They aren't gods. Yes, they are phenomenal at what they do, but like any of us, they can make mistakes or decisions that people don't agree with. I respect the NHC 100%. I also question their estimated intensity/classification of Bertha, and that's okay.
Quoting 610. CybrTeddy:

Holy cow!


Quoting 611. VAbeachhurricanes:

Amazing


Quoting 612. Articuno:

Absolutely incredible.


All of that and more. That is one good-looking 'cane.

Yo Teddy, I think it's time to move to Hawaii to do some storm chasing. We'll even send some video back so Kori can watch from home. Make him jealous. :p
.
we are going to see lots of tropical storms and hurricanes going out to sea this year.
Quoting 604. VAbeachhurricanes:



How is it offensive? In my opinion it is a joke that they still maintained this a hurricane. It reeks on satellite presentation, and the last 3 passes they found 0 winds at flight level of hurricane strength. With the 20% reduction that makes surface winds even lower. Great they have degrees and are professionals. Does not mean they cannot be wrong. They are still calling this a hurricane just because 8 hours ago it was one based on recon? At least then the center wasn't exposed with only a small core of not even -60 degree cloud tops to its east.


What you said was " Ha Ha NHC what a joke " And even if they were wrong, your comment still wreaks with disrespect. When things change quick out there, they do there best to make the latest info available the public. When all it takes is a fast blow up of thunderstorms to wrap into these systems, they can power up suddenly. An opinion on Bertha,s situation is to be expected with it looking so disorganized, disagreement is common, but calling them a joke will not aid with getting your opinion or thoughts across to whoever is reading...if anything, it will do quite the opposite.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't know why they would downgrade it -- there was evidence straight from recon. 100mph flight level winds, uncontaminated SFMR of 80-85 mph. It was better organized this morning, so it definitely deserved hurricane status this morning.
I agree. If it hadn't have been upgraded, it's much more likely it would have happened in the post-season. I'm not sure why people are questioning this. I've certainly not been a cheerleader for Bertha over its long and frustrating life, but the major models did call for it to spend a day as a hurricane, and that's what's happened, albeit a little sooner than originally forecast. When the airplanes find enough winds of hurricane force, the NHC will upgrade it to a hurricane. Can you imagine the reaction of many people here, reading the ATCF reports, if they didn't upgrade Bertha?
Astro's 100th blog post.

Not tropical weather related, but special to me.

Also has something that Cody (TropicalAnalystwx13) has been asking/demanding from me for a long time.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't know why they would downgrade it -- there was evidence straight from recon. 100mph flight level winds, uncontaminated SFMR of 80-85 mph. It was better organized this morning, so it definitely deserved hurricane status this morning.


Then perhaps detract some of Bertha's ACE in the final report and surmise that Bertha lost hurricane intensity at 3Z August 5.
Quoting 614. wxgeek723:

Could Bertha actually be downgraded in post season analysis? I can't recall any instances like that.


Possibly but recon found hurricane winds maybe they will
Quoting 629. Astrometeor:

Astro's 100th blog post.

Not tropical weather related, but special to me.

Also has something that Cody (TropicalAnalystwx13) has been asking/demanding from me for a long time.
10,008 posts...your fingers must be sore..:)
Quoting wxgeek723:


Then perhaps detract some of Bertha's ACE in the final report and surmise that Bertha lost hurricane intensity at 3Z August 5.
Why would they make decision in the postseason with no more data then we have right now? I could understand if there was some error in the data from the previous recon or a problem of data interpretation but the decision to leave Bertha as a hurricane until recon gets out there again isn't uncommon when the change in status would come at night, based on IR satellite. The postseason analysis group normally doesn't look at things with that fine a level of detail.
Quoting hydrus:
10,008 posts...your fingers must be sore..:)
Ah, don't let mean guys like Hydrus get to you, Astro. :-) When others of your age are out stealing cars and robbing liquor stores, you've done an admirable job with your life so far. Keep it up.
Quoting sar2401:
Why would they make decision in the postseason with no more data then we have right now? I could understand if there was some error in the data from the previous recon or a problem of data interpretation but the decision to leave Bertha as a hurricane until recon gets out there again isn't uncommon when the change in status would come at night, based on IR satellite. The postseason analysis group normally doesn't look at things with that fine a level of detail.


Honestly I know superficiality is not a good trait to have in the world of science, but it appears pretty valid here.

Quoting 610. CybrTeddy:

Holy cow!


wow...I suppose these are photo captures some of you picked up from a NASA site. I'd love to post or link these.

This is the first hurricane eye I've seen that actually LOOKS like an eye. My wife said it looks like a whale's eye.
Quoting 632. hydrus:

10,008 posts...your fingers must be sore..:)


Not as sore as Taz's and Patrap's. Both are over 100K.
638. JLPR2
Hmm...



Right now I'm finding the area next to Bertha rather interesting.

I've been watching the wave coming off of Africa since February.

The most interesting thing about Bertha was the fact that even when you could not see it on Sat maps she kept a circulation that was constant regardless of her conditions, once in a while she would peek out from under the mess she was dragging around. Even right now she just spins and spins and spins. Never slowed down enough to let the Junk catch up! Moving at 5 or 10 knots she may have been a major!
641. JLPR2
Genevieve in the CPac, forecast to become a hurricane.
This one has more lives than a cat. XD



Quoting 636. BayFog:


wow...I suppose these are photo captures some of you picked up from a NASA site. I'd love to post or link these.

This is the first hurricane eye I've seen that actually LOOKS like an eye. My wife said it looks like a whale's eye.


I captured that in real-time as the ISS flew over, check out post 602.
Quoting 638. JLPR2:

Hmm...



Right now I'm finding the area next to Bertha rather interesting.





After a lull in the Rainfall for the later part of the day for South Florida. It appears that a new blob is now growing near the keys.

645. JLPR2
Quoting 643. Grothar:







I see the models are finding it interesting.
Also, fresh ASCAT shows improvement, anyone think this one will be 94L?
Quoting 639. Grothar:

I've been watching the wave coming off of Africa since February.




LOL
Oracle <--- Lived on Kauai for 6 months following hurricane Iniki.

I got island fever ... learned to take off my shoes in people's houses, and ... found the Buddhists were nicer to me than any Christian I ever met.
Looks like Bertha's circulation is merging with the front and is separated from her blob.
Quoting 641. JLPR2:

Genevieve in the CPac, forecast to become a hurricane.
This one has more lives than a cat. XD





I've been watching that one to see if it might recurve back toward Hawaii after pumping up over the tepid waters west of the islands. If it waves back and forth across 180 degrees, will it be continually re-titled a typhoon, hurricane, typhoon, ad infinitum? And if it does the same over the Dateline, won't that wreak havoc on its timestamp? A time traveling tropical cyclone?
650. JLPR2
Jeez the C. Atl is so dead & the ITCZ is missing...
Nothing, the fact than an ULL is the most prominent feature is ridiculous.

Fisherman in California continue to have unusual catches of yellow fin tuna and other exotic species. Anyone know what that signals?
Quoting 648. forecaster1:

Looks like Bertha's circulation is merging with the front and is separated from her blob.

Yep...I agree...which is why in my 54th update of the Atlantic season I predict Bertha to weaken faster than what the NHC showed at the 11 PM forecast.

I also did an update on the disturbed weather over Florida...thinking their is a small chance that we could get an eastern Gulf disturbance from it over the next 48 hours (I emphasize slim chance...especially since computer models don't suggest it will happen).
Quoting 650. JLPR2:

Jeez the C. Atl is so dead & the ITCZ is missing...
Nothing, the fact than an ULL is the most prominent feature is ridiculous.



Water vapor shows Saharan dry air has made a big resurgence over the last day and half....(sigh the slow 2014 Atlantic season continues)
just to be sure if 94l possibly fuses with Bertha will we see Cristobal or still be Bertha.
I should have said this earlier, but my prediction is that the low over florida will become a tropical depression or more by noon tomorrow.
Lets call it now, Bertha had the worst satellite presentation of any hurricane in history.
Quoting aidaman:
I should have said this earlier, but my prediction is that the low over florida will become a tropical depression or more by noon tomorrow.
I think so too. Im giving it 30/60.
Will we still be downcasting the season when we're at 12-5-1 in late September? Normal seasons seem odd and boring after the past decade and a half that we've had.
Quoting 657. HurricaneAndre:

I think so too. Im giving it 30/60.


Has some model support, but NHC sees something most don't. Maybe 10/10 little yellow X in the morning. Going OTS whatever becomes of it and little chance this forms.
Quoting 654. HurricaneAndre:

just to be sure if 94l possibly fuses with Bertha will we see Cristobal or still be Bertha.

94L? I checked the Navy Invest site...I don't see anything that indacates that the disturbance over Florida/coastal SE US is 94L.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

94L? I checked the Navy Invest site...I don't see anything that indacates that the disturbance over Florida/coastal SE US is 94L.
I was saying the possible 94L. Lol.
It looks like the low off Florida are all pointing their fingers at poo Bertha

]

I see the 00z is still bringing an area off the NC coast around 150hrs. Develops it as it moves up towards the NE. Looks suspiciously like a "nor easter". Very odd for mid Aug. Have a feeling this should tell us something about the current pattern.
I use funktop for majors because it makes them look awful unless they're really well formed. Here we can see Iselle degrading on the left side.
What a hurricane

Quoting JLPR2:


I see the models are finding it interesting.
Also, fresh ASCAT shows improvement, anyone think this one will be 94L?
No. It's a low already shown on the surface map. It will follow the stalled front northeast and then out to sea. Depending on how fast the low moves compared to Bertha, it's possible that Bertha could absorb the low or the low will simply dissipate, depending on what model you believe. None of the major models develop this low.

Quoting Astrometeor:


Not as sore as Taz's and Patrap's. Both are over 100K.


What are we talking doing with our fingers to make them sore?

Anyways - almost moved in to my new home. I check in and there is a Annular Hurricane and an Atlantic Hurricane. Geez... good thing this was supposed to be a slow season.
Anyone else notice it's already been 8 days since the last Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued. Sure doesn't seem like a week ago. If there weren't any hurricanes this blog would certainly be dead.
Quoting 668. Dakster:



What are we talking doing with our fingers to make them sore?

Anyways - almost moved in to my new home. I check in and there is a Annular Hurricane and an Atlantic Hurricane. Geez... good thing this was supposed to be a slow season.


Typing comments Dak, lol.

Julio could be a beast. Watch both him and Iselle attack Hawaii. :)

Good night blog.
Invest 98E has recently been designated south of Mexico. The environment appears favorable for development over the coming days.

The next name on the list is Karina.

Quoting 669. SouthCentralTx:

Anyone else notice it's already been 8 days since the last Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued. Sure doesn't seem like a week ago. If there weren't any hurricanes this blog would certainly be dead.



I have noticed that. Really quiet on the SPC. Today they had a SLIGHT out, but I feel that one was almost forced. Extremely quiet.
Quoting 651. forecaster1:

Fisherman in California continue to have unusual catches of yellow fin tuna and other exotic species. Anyone know what that signals?


Warmer water temps..........Possible El Nino
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 98E has recently been designated south of Mexico. The environment appears favorable for development over the coming days.

The next name on the list is Karina.

almost the K word.
Quoting 671. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 98E has recently been designated south of Mexico. The environment appears favorable for development over the coming days.

The next name on the list is Karina.




um... in the previous TWO they said there was high shear for this area and not much organization was expected... low confidence 10% for 48 hr and 5 days


500 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain strong over this system
during the next several
days, and development, if any, should be slow to occur while the low
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Thanks Astro...Will do when I can. Moving has been taking a lot of my time at the moment. And I still have one more trip to make.
Quoting forecaster1:
Fisherman in California continue to have unusual catches of yellow fin tuna and other exotic species. Anyone know what that signals?


Dinner?
Haven't been on the blog all day was a decent day today. I see many were angry at Bertha being a hurricane but hey what makes different a ts from a hurricane is the winds. I am going to say it she is the worst hurricane I have seen but hey is a hurricane.I would actually be angry if it has the winds and was not upgrade just because it does not have the appearance of a normal hurricane. I am quite happy what the NHC have done with this storm and how they have manage with her. I believe it will be downgrade at 5am and probably a little earlier in post analysis.
Quoting 671. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 98E has recently been designated south of Mexico. The environment appears favorable for development over the coming days.

The next name on the list is Karina.


That is the name of my cousin wife :P.
Hurricane Bertha is no more, 60mph TS at best and that would be generous. Wave train has come to a grinding halt. May be August 20th before we get our next storm. Season is shaping up in the 9-11 named storms area. If we're lucky.
I love this quote in the blog post by Dr. Masters:

"However, Bertha's satellite presentation was probably the lamest I've even seen for a hurricane, with only a small, misshapen area of heavy thunderstorms, and little in the way of spiral bands."

This is exactly what I thought, I couldn't agree more, I've honestly seen better looking minimal TS's on satellite. It looked almost like a depression.
Quoting 639. Grothar:

I've been watching the wave coming off of Africa since February.





Only a trained eye... I wasn't able to pick it out till the end of March
Quoting 665. winter123:

I use funktop for majors because it makes them look awful unless they're really well formed. Here we can see Iselle degrading on the left side.



Good point and theres always this for reference :

Quoting 483. floridaT:

Wow here just east of Naples Florida . I checked my rain gauge this afternoon after hours of downpours , It only goes to 5 inches . It was overflowing , emptied and 2 hours later I had an 1.6 inches. Thats at least 6.6 inches today.



You live in Florida and you have a rain gauge that only holds a 5 inch max? I don't think you have the right climatological equipment. ;)
684. JLPR2
According to Recon Bertha is still a respectable TS with 50mph winds, a pressure of 1005mb and a closed LLC.


Recon is finding higher pressures and lower winds in Bertha. They're only finding maximum winds up to about 50MPH so far. Not a surprise with a storm that has very limited convection with it. Bertha was a hurricane last morning, recon confirmed it, but it sure isn't one now.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iselle, located more than a thousand miles east of the Hawaiian
Islands, and on Tropical Storm Julio, located more than a thousand
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. A small low pressure system is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased and become more concentrated near the center
of circulation during the past several hours, and upper-level winds
are expected to gradually improve over the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Quoting Jedkins01:
I love this quote in the blog post by Dr. Masters:

"However, Bertha's satellite presentation was probably the lamest I've even seen for a hurricane, with only a small, misshapen area of heavy thunderstorms, and little in the way of spiral bands."

This is exactly what I thought, I couldn't agree more, I've honestly seen better looking minimal TS's on satellite. It looked almost like a depression.


Noticed that. A new synonym for trash, junk, rubbish, and drivel. ;-)
LOL
689. vis0
CREDIT::EUMETSAT (though final product is via my funktopGal filters...no available anywhere including your grocers freezer)
IMAGERY PERIOD::Afrika 201408-04;0400UTC_-05;0400UTC(CEST+2 on UTC)
IMAGERY SUBJECT:: blogbit/blog entry. IF lull occurs. The importance of observing nothing + 2014 Galacsic Calendar observations.
IMAGERY AREA:: Afrika's/Africa's W/nw area (centered)


why post this imagery? i'ts all mystified & obscured here.
IMAGERY NOT:: Ancient Greek Coin is not VIDs thumbtac.


HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014

Although Iselle's eye remain large and distinct, cloud tops have
been warming significantly since the previous advisory. Also, some
westerly shear is beginning to impinge on the cyclone, and the
CDO has become elongated a little in a northeast-southwest
orientation. The aforementioned observations all suggest weakening,
and this is noted by a decrease in the Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB. The initial intensity is, therefore, lowered to 110 kt for
this advisory, which is a blend of subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. After a slight jog to
the west-southwest, Iselle appears to have returned to a due west
course. The NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered and in
excellent agreement on Iselle moving slowly westward for another
12-24 hours, and then turning more west-northwestward at a
faster forward speed as the ridge to its north gradually
strengthens. The new NHC forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory track, and is close to the very reliable consensus
model, TVCA. On the forecast track, the center of Iselle should move
near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands in 72-84 hours.

Since Iselle is an annular hurricane, only slow weakening is
forecast, especially since the vertical shear is forecast to remain
5 kt or less for the next 72 hours or so. The GFS-based SHIPS model
is showing more significant weakening and makes Iselle a tropical
storm in 36 hours, which seems premature. This is due in part to the
SSTs being about 0.5 degree cooler in the model than what is
currently observed along the cyclone's path. The official intensity
forecast follows the consensus model, ICON, but is slightly higher
to account for the low bias of the SHIPS model. Remnant low
status is expected by Day 5.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of Iselle. However, it is important not to focus too
closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the
average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average
intensity error is about 15 kt, and because the hazards of a
tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area often well away from
the center.

Iselle is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center's area of responsibility around 1800 UTC today. Once
this occurs, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
Hawaii, will begin issuing advisories on Iselle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.9N 138.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.2N 140.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 16.7N 142.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 145.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.1N 149.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 19.7N 155.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 21.8N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 685. wxchaser97:

Recon is finding higher pressures and lower winds in Bertha. They're only finding maximum winds up to about 50MPH so far. Not a surprise with a storm that has very limited convection with it. Bertha was a hurricane last morning, recon confirmed it, but it sure isn't one now.


Good morning. Bertha still is entertaining: Watch the exposed LLC freely roaming to the north and looking for a new safehouse of convection, lol.


Click to enlarge. MIMIC-TPW shows how Bertha's circulation starts to wrap the "Precipitable Water" in order to donate it probably to the British Isles.



----------------------------------

The latest on the crazy weather conditions in Scandinavia:



Swedish town evacuates as forest fire rages on
The Local (Sweden), Published: 05 Aug 2014 07:36 GMT 02:00
LIVE UPDATES: The Swedish town of Norberg is being evacuated as a massive forest fire approaches. The flames have been spreading for six days and claimed the life of a man on Tuesday morning. ...

Storms cause chaos across Norway
The Local (Norway), Published: 05 Aug 2014 09:41 GMT 02:00
A powerful "supercell" storm caused floods, power losses and traffic problems across several places in Norway on Monday and Tuesday. ...
Quoting 685. wxchaser97:

Recon is finding higher pressures and lower winds in Bertha. They're only finding maximum winds up to about 50MPH so far. Not a surprise with a storm that has very limited convection with it. Bertha was a hurricane last morning, recon confirmed it, but it sure isn't one now.


Transitioning to extra-trop ATM..
Cool to be able to observe this..
I expect drones wills be able to embed in these storms in the near future..
We live in a exciting time..
Media is reporting that July 2014 was the record hottest July in Hong Kong, but I haven't seen any statement that it was the record hottest month there. I saw a report that led me to believe that the record hottest August in Hong Kong had an average temperature of 29.5 C. This July reportedly had an average temperature of 29.8 C.
drizzle alittle moderate rain that was it for yesterday e cen fl.
Next AOI
E of Barbados

AOI E of Barbados has some vort
It's got some low level convergence and upper level divergence
It's got some lower shear but has a wall of shear in the W/SW Carib between 70 and 80W
Movement will be W through the Caribbean
No SAL to deal with
Well, Bertha didn't put up as much of a fight as I thought it would. Still, it was a hurricane for a little while for sure. Now, here's hoping Bertha doesn't hit the UK too hard.

Quoting 697. wunderkidcayman:

AOI E of Barbados has some vort
It's got some low level convergence and upper level divergence
It's got some lower shear but has a wall of shear in the W/SW Carib between 70 and 80W
Movement will be W through the Caribbean
No SAL to deal with



Carib is a dead zone for anything entering it ATM. Too much dry air, trade winds to deal with...just not favorable.


new tropical wave with rain

Quoting momof4girls:
Arthur and bertha have set the and cut the path for future storm if any more should form..... the year of the fish storms and huge hooks

Umm nope don't work like that
The high pressure ridge has rebuild anything was to form Caribbean and US it shall go
Scratch that, pretty much the entire tropical Atl is a dead zone ATM.
Although Bertha "went fishing," we will now have to look into the "Cristobal" of the future, and see what the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season brings!

Still thinking there will be some action, being that we are entering the busiest time .... mid August through September .... Remember!
For the latest updates on road closures in the Naples, Florida area come visit my blog as all the information is on my blog.

Link
Quoting 701. StormJunkie:




Carib is a dead zone for anything entering it ATM. Too much dry air, trade winds to deal with...just not favorable.


Pretty much, doesn't stand a chance:



Hopefully it'll hold on and give some more rain to the islands though.
A small low pressure system is located several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. While shower and thunderstorm activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development over the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Here's a impressive shot of a thunderstorm moving toward Melbourne Beach on Sunday.

Quoting Stormwatch247:
Although Bertha "went fishing," we will now have to look into the "Cristobal" of the future, and see what the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season brings!

Still thinking there will be some action, being that we are entering the busiest time .... mid August through September .... Remember!



Bertha is not a fish storm it hit a lot of land when it was back in the caribeen That dos not make it a fish it all so hit other areas wish all so dos not make it a fish storm


Quoting 706. Stormwatch247:

Although Bertha "went fishing," we will now have to look into the "Cristobal" of the future, and see what the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season brings!

Still thinking there will be some action, being that we are entering the busiest time .... mid August through September .... Remember!
We should all be thankful that powerful Bertha is moving safely out to sea. A hurricane without wind, rain, clouds, convection, or tidal surge can be the most dangerous storm of all. You could be outside, standing in the sun in a light breeze, sipping a cocktail...and not realize you are being hit.
Quoting 711. Tazmanian:




Bertha is not a fish storm it hit a lot of land when it was back in the caribeen That dos not make it a fish it all so hit other areas wish all so dos not make it a fish storm





OK U are right about that .... Bertha was a "fish" when she became a hurricane on Monday.

Hope Bertha gave PR and the islands some much needed rain, when she was a struggling tropical storm. She was not a total fish :) She was more like a galloping horse .... speeding by at more than 20MPH!
Some cloud to cloud lightning last Saturday



Followed by a cloud to ground strike.

Quoting 712. eyewallblues:

We should all be thankful that powerful Bertha is moving safely out to sea. A hurricane without wind, rain, clouds, convection, or tidal surge can be the most dangerous storm of all. You could be outside, standing in the sun in a light breeze, sipping a cocktail...and not realize you are being hit.


I don't know if I have ever seen a hurricane with virtually no rain like I did yesterday when all the convection went poof as the storms in FL robbed it's energy. NHC made a bad call IMO on Bertha. The time Bertha was "listed" as a hurricane all the convection waned and Bertha was left with a hurricane naked swirl. Looked more like a depression than hurricane.
Quoting Stormwatch247:


OK U are right about that .... Bertha was a "fish" when she became a hurricane on Monday.

Hope Bertha gave PR and the islands some much needed rain, when she was a struggling tropical storm. She was not a total fish :) She was more like a galloping horse .... speeding by at more than 20MPH!



No she is not a fish storm not be for or after it be came a hurricane. It all ready hit land the time be for that dos not make it a fish storm A fish storm is a storm that gos right. Out two sea with out hitting no land area at all
The term "Trash" or "Junk" Bertha was properly used with this system by many on here.
Bertha will be gone soon so bring on cristobal pllzzzzzz
Good Morning Folks.  Nothing substantial in the form of waves coming off of Africa as yet and SAL suppression still in effect in the Central Atlantic with the exception of the low riding wave about to enter the lower Caribbean.  That wave will not develop but notice how it was able to finally "pool" some moisture together after getting to the West of the current SAL layer.


Quoting 717. StormTrackerScott:

The term "Trash" or "Junk" Bertha was properly used with this system by many on here.
The dry air and the brush by Hispaniola did not help Bertha to rise above so called trash status. It should not be long before we get something.
Will also note that there is plenty of rain in the Sahel region of Africa lately and there is a nice thick band of "green" across the region so we should see some healthier waves start to form over the next three weeks headed the West to the Atlantic.  The problem, for now, is that the are encountering very dry stable air, SAL, and quicker trade wind speeds once they splash down and move beyond the Cape Verde islands.  My point is that Bertha was reflective of these issues, which is typical for early August, but we have to see how these factors change or stay close to the same for the peak period; shear is going to drop for the peak period, as it does every year, in the Central Atlantic but cooler sst's (as a result of the SAL all the way down to the 10N mark) and the stable dry air and SAL (two different entities) need to also subside in order facilitate hurricane formation, as opposed to weak/struggling tropical storms, before a potential storm gets to the Lesser Antilles.  

Just have to wait and see how these issues unfold but the Central Atlantic ITCZ is practically non-existent at the moment and we will need several waves between now and the end of August to moisten up the crossing as a potential cushion against the SAL and stable dry air to help the chances of potential development in the future:
 
Quoting 712. eyewallblues:

We should all be thankful that powerful Bertha is moving safely out to sea. A hurricane without wind, rain, clouds, convection, or tidal surge can be the most dangerous storm of all. You could be outside, standing in the sun in a light breeze, sipping a cocktail...and not realize you are being hit.


Thanks for my first laugh of the day
Quoting 718. weatherman994:

Bertha will be gone soon so bring on cristobal pllzzzzzz


Well based on what the CMC/GFS/ECMWF are predicting, we will have an area of interest off the east coast in about 5-7 days time:







Quite strong model agreement with this, so there's a good chance it'll happen. Potential to be Cristobal.
All:

I'm getting ready for my 5-6 day trip from Grand Cayman around west end of Cuba and up to West End, Bahamas for tomorrow morning. I noticed there is a big group of dark clouds just east of the Lesser Antilles. Is that a wave? Any change of it developing strong winds this week? I've noticed that the forecast has been slightly increasing the winds for this weekend each day for the past 3 days. Due to this possible wave?

Quoting 703. wunderkidcayman:


Umm nope don't work like that
The high pressure ridge has rebuild anything was to form Caribbean and US it shall go


The Caribbean is a dead zone right now. Just look at the water vapor (and it has been that way all summer). Most of the moisture is in the GOM and SW Atlantic.
Impressive cluster of thunderstorms going into the islands.
727. SLU
We did not see any of that type of activity for the whole of 2013. Just having these random blobs popping up east of the Islands is a sign that the MDR might not be as hopeless as last year.

Quoting SLU:
We did not see any of that type of activity for the whole of 2013. Just having these random blobs popping up east of the Islands is a sign that the MDR might not be as hopeless as last year.




Dos not matter trad winds and wind shear will not allowed. It two forum pulse there two march dry air
Quoting 726. StormHunter53:

Impressive cluster of thunderstorms going into the islands.



Closest bouy is operated by Meto France..
And of course it hasn't transmitted last 8 hrs..
Only 1 obsv. @1317GMT by passing vessel waay south..
Sigh..
Quoting 728. Tazmanian:




Dos not matter trad winds and wind shear will not allowed. It two forum pulse there two march dry air


Actually seems to be moistening it's own "little" environment..

NHC Discussion..
"A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
TO VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N
TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE BETWEEN 60W
AND 73W"
Quoting 723. Envoirment:



Well based on what the CMC/GFS/ECMWF are predicting, we will have an area of interest off the east coast in about 5-7 days time:







Quite strong model agreement with this, so there's a good chance it'll happen. Potential to be Cristobal.
If it develops it will be in the same place as his predecessor.
Quoting 727. SLU:

We did not see any of that type of activity for the whole of 2013. Just having these random blobs popping up east of the Islands is a sign that the MDR might not be as hopeless as last year.


Good morning Slu..I think so too..Those T waves will keep coming, and probably some vigorous ones.

Pretty nice heat buildup in the WPac. Could be primed for a new Kelvin Wave. Or, it could just fuel some monster WPac storms.
734. SLU
Looking forward to some rain today

Quoting pcola57:

It could blow up a bit more due to Dmax effects. NHC said it may survive to reach the islands. At any rate, the islands will be happy at the prospect of more rain.
Sorta shows where they will go..

Quoting 735. StormHunter53:

Quoting pcola57:

It could blow up a bit more due to Dmax effects. NHC said it may survive to reach the islands. At any rate, the islands will be happy at the prospect of more rain.


I don't know for sure if they are in times of "woe" right now..
But I bet they would take this instead of a Cat.? hurricaine.. :)
Quoting 721. weathermanwannabe:

Will also note that there is plenty of rain in the Sahel region of Africa lately and there is a nice thick band of "green" across the region so we should see some healthier waves start to form over the next three weeks headed the West to the Atlantic.  The problem, for now, is that the are encountering very dry stable air, SAL, and quicker trade wind speeds once they splash down and move beyond the Cape Verde islands.  My point is that Bertha was reflective of these issues, which is typical for early August, but we have to see how these factors change or stay close to the same for the peak period; shear is going to drop for the peak period, as it does every year, in the Central Atlantic but cooler sst's (as a result of the SAL all the way down to the 10N mark) and the stable dry air and SAL (two different entities) need to also subside in order facilitate hurricane formation, as opposed to weak/struggling tropical storms, before a potential storm gets to the Lesser Antilles.  

Just have to wait and see how these issues unfold but the Central Atlantic ITCZ is practically non-existent at the moment and we will need several waves between now and the end of August to moisten up the crossing as a potential cushion against the SAL and stable dry air to help the chances of potential development in the future:
 
I will say one thing. If that dry air and SAL were to disappear, the pattern is shaping up to be one that would bring storms further west, which increases the chance of a landfall.
741. SLU
Quoting 732. hydrus:

Good morning Slu..I think so too..Those T waves will keep coming, and probably some vigorous ones.




Yes I don't see the MDR being as dead as last year.
Quoting 741. SLU:



Yes I don't see the MDR being as dead as last year.
if we get 2 CV MH I will be very happy
really dont think both of these c.pac systems are going to amount to much for hawaii they need to come from the south or southwest. we dont have to worry about the florida system it poofed
744. SLU
Quoting 742. wunderweatherman123:

if we get 2 CV MH I will be very happy


3 - 5 MDR storms might not be unrealistic.
Good Morning all..quick post..hectic day at work already..

Navgem is a good indicator of tropical cyclogenesis..

00z Navgem ensembles..72 hours vorticity map with wave approaching the lesser antilles


00z Navgem Ensembles show agreement on MSL pressures near the islands..240 hours




we also got a new pouch..

SYNOPSIS 2014080500

P13L
12N, 14E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Not a well-defined pouch until 108 hours as P13L leaves Africa. While there is a contribution from both the northern and southern track over west Africa, the northern one appears to contribute more, hence the track has relatively high latitude in the beginning.

GFS: Unlike ECMWF, GFS appears to have a stronger, more consistent circulation on the southern track. Although the circulation is tiny while over Africa, P13L grows and strengthens upon reaching the Atlantic.

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF with more contribution from the northern track.

NAVGEM: Also in the “northern camp”. Eventual distinct pouch depicted as early as 72 hours.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -9.6 v700 120h
GFS -9.6 v700 120h
UKMET -8.2 v700 120h
NAVGEM -8.5 v700 120h
HWGEN ———— ———— ———h



Quoting 744. SLU:



3 - 5 MDR storms might not be unrealistic.
storms yes but hurricanes? gonna be hard to produce that many.. 3 is possible. CFS shows a CV MH at the end of august. if we get 1 more, that would be 2 which is right on cue for average. Ill say that 2014>2013 and 2012.
well...bertha is back at TS status....what a wonderful storm.....i'm guessing a lot of experts will be spending plenty of hours studying not only how she survived the conditions she was in...but that her intensity grew despite those conditions.....now some might call her a junk storm....that's their choice...doesn't make them right....this was mother nature at her finest.....
Julio is going to be a big threat to hawaii
750. SLU
Quoting 746. wunderweatherman123:

storms yes but hurricanes? gonna be hard to produce that many.. 3 is possible. CFS shows a CV MH at the end of august. if we get 1 more, that would be 2 which is right on cue for average. Ill say that 2014>2013 and 2012.


Last year produced 1 MDR hurricane. I see no reason why we can't have one or two this year.
Current ACE of Arthur & Bertha is ~12.5 (more than 1/3 of 2013's ACE with only two storms). Bertha will likely add a little bit more before she completely dies.

Last recon missioned showed Bertha with max winds of 45-50kts, so should stay as 60mph. Sun is up over naked Bertha:

Quoting 731. allancalderini:

If it develops it will be in the same place as his predecessor.


I am not at all convinced that the system that is "supposed" to move off the NC coast in a week is entirely tropical, or tropical at all for that matter. Not that I know what I am talking about by any means...but it has more the appearance of nor' easter or extra tropical. Guess it could make warm core as it moves NE, but not seeing support for that ATM per phase analysis.


Julio is going to be a big threat to hawaii

it could be...but not likely by wind or storm surge......water temps are cooler than what is needed for dr j to remain a cane.....now with the I lady producing heavy rains...if j was to follow.....flooding could be a real possibility
Quoting 747. ricderr:

well...bertha is back at TS status....what a wonderful storm.....i'm guessing a lot of experts will be spending plenty of hours studying not only how she survived the conditions she was in...but that her intensity grew despite those conditions.....now some might call her a junk storm....that's their choice...doesn't make them right....this was mother nature at her finest.....



Finest, not sure. That's a beautiful sunny day at the pool. But one of the more interesting for sure. Good to see ya ric.
now looking at my notes........june/july produced the average for named storms during an el nino forming year....the average is 0.8 named storms...and we saw one.......

during august...the average named storms is 2.4 of which we have already seen one.....now in el nino years we've seen as few as none...and as many as 7 during 2004...personally......i'm of the mind we will see no more than two more......
Quoting 752. StormJunkie:



I am not at all convinced that the system that is "supposed" to move off the NC coast in a week is entirely tropical, or tropical at all for that matter.


I was thinking it could become a subtropical storm. It's still a little while off, but it's something to look out for.
Finest, not sure. That's a beautiful sunny day at the pool. But one of the more interesting for sure. Good to see ya ric.

hey sj....happy tuesday to ya......yep...finest....if it wasn't for satellite data and hunters....would we have even known bertha was out there?......call the story of bertha...rocky 1....you have a champ...who is the classic boxer....great jab.....nice footwork...excellent movement.....same as your traditional tropical system...then you have rocky...odds against him....totally different style than most....but somehow can defy the odds....bertha is our rocky....
Quoting 756. Envoirment:



I was thinking it could become a subtropical storm. It's still a little while off, but it's something to look out for.


Now that I compare the definition of extra tropical and sub tropical...I concur.
Quoting 748. joshweather1222:

Julio is going to be a big threat to hawaii
Maybe not. The upwelling from Iselle will have an effect on Julio. Thats not saying Hawaii will not have a storm to contend with. Iselle will likely bring T.S. forced winds to the area..jmo
Quoting 758. StormJunkie:



Now that I compare the definition of extra tropical and sub tropical...I concur.
They can get rather potent. It might be interesting. In fact, I believe were in for a few surprises this year, and not just hurricanes.
The Doc should be on any minute now, so I thought I would post this now


Quoting 755. ricderr:

now looking at my notes........june/july produced the average for named storms during an el nino forming year....the average is 0.8 named storms...and we saw one.......

during august...the average named storms is 2.4 of which we have already seen one.....now in el nino years we've seen as few as none...and as many as 7 during 2004...personally......i'm of the mind we will see no more than two more......


I think we'll have 3-5 storms in August. We already have Bertha and activity should start picking up as we enter mid-late August. Then there's the potential for Cristobal next week and also the models showing strong waves coming off of Africa by the end of next week with potential for development. Not to mention potential pop up storms. Quite exciting stuff now we're getting starting to get into the heart of the hurricane season!
Quoting 759. hydrus:

Maybe not. The upwelling from Iselle will have an effect on Julio. Thats not saying Hawaii will not have a storm to contend with. Iselle will likely bring T.S. forced winds to the area..jmo


I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain
Hmm
New information provides more details into our Barbados AOI
Vort has increased in this disturbance
Shear has dropped as a large upper level anticyclone builds in the Caribbean
Divergence and convergence has also increased
SAL is out of the question
Dry air is not as bad in front as there are a few scattered storms in front from a tropical wave moistening the area
New 12Z sfc charts added a surface trof to the disturbance
Quoting 761. Grothar:

The Doc should be on any minute now, so I thought I would post this now





Low shear and warm waters. There's dry air, but there doesn't seem to be much, if any dust around it. Plus it looks like it's created its own little moisture blanket. The lower vorticy has increased quite a bit the last 3 hours:





The trade winds of the Caribbean might disrupt it. But if it can hold it togther and get into the Western Caribbean, we could be in for a surprise.
Quoting Grothar:

So can we officially call it Groblob
Re: #761: I'm not only impressed with the outflow of the Windward Isles wave, but very impressed with the blobbage that has managed to form and spout a couple taller cloud tops in the Central Caribbean! We need to watch that and see if the little punk hangs on to that moisture; the Western Caribbean's got some significant TCHP.


You know, the Wind Shear in the Carribean is not awful
Quoting 763. Grothar:



I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain
Possible. There is a large mass of dry air advecting into the paths of both systems..The war between dry and moist continues.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


You know, the Wind Shear in the Carribean is not awful

Yeah not at all with that large upper level anticyclone building up

Quoting 769. OrchidGrower:

Re: #761: I'm not only impressed with the outflow of the Windward Isles wave, but very impressed with the blobbage that has managed to form and spout a couple taller cloud tops in the Central Caribbean! We need to watch that and see if the little punk hangs on to that moisture; the Western Caribbean's got some significant TCHP.
It has gusto....is that a real word.? :)
Quoting 763. Grothar:



I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain


Hopefully the rain won't cause too much flooding. About 30% of Hawaii is abnormally dry and about 0.6% is in moderate drought, so fingers crossed the rain can be more beneficial than destructive. Link
Quoting 768. wunderkidcayman:


So can we officially call it Groblob


LOL. Not yet WKC. Blobogenesis takes many hours of observation and careful analysis. I have to locate the MJO and MDR and then when I find my glasses I can give a report.
776. Relix
Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm
New information provides more details into our Barbados AOI
Vort has increased in this disturbance
Shear has dropped as a large upper level anticyclone builds in the Caribbean
Divergence and convergence has also increased
SAL is out of the question
Dry air is not as bad in front as there are a few scattered storms in front from a tropical wave moistening the area
New 12Z sfc charts added a surface trof to the disturbance
I see a tropical wave on the 12z surface chart.

I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain

exactly.......once those mountains are saturated....runoff will be fast and furious with the second system
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. Not yet WKC. Blobogenesis takes many hours of observation and careful analysis. I have to locate the MJO and MDR and then when I find my glasses I can give a report.
Plus the Mylanta and those big horse size fiber pills... :-)
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. Not yet WKC. Blobogenesis takes many hours of observation and careful analysis. I have to locate the MJO and MDR and then when I find my glasses I can give a report.

LOL
It can be that hard
I'll await for your report
Quoting 776. Relix:

Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?


I don't think the Barbados entity is acossiated with the tropical wave:



Quoting Relix:
Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?

S of all
Quoting sar2401:
I see a tropical wave on the 12z surface chart.


Here I'll give you a better view
Quoting Envoirment:


I don't think the Barbados entity is acossiated with the tropical wave:




It had split from the wave
Looks like Bertha is gonna be a London storm



I'm getting worried about the Doc. He usually checks in by this time.


If both were tropical systems, that would have to be the closest interaction I've ever seen..
Quoting ricderr:
Finest, not sure. That's a beautiful sunny day at the pool. But one of the more interesting for sure. Good to see ya ric.

hey sj....happy tuesday to ya......yep...finest....if it wasn't for satellite data and hunters....would we have even known bertha was out there?......call the story of bertha...rocky 1....you have a champ...who is the classic boxer....great jab.....nice footwork...excellent movement.....same as your traditional tropical system...then you have rocky...odds against him....totally different style than most....but somehow can defy the odds....bertha is our rocky....
This is a waste of time since the Doc will post a new blog within five minutes, but we would have known there was a storm out there. Ship reports would have told us that. Until it got east of the Bahamas, we probably would have pegged it as a TS at least. I don't think it ever would have reached hurricane status just because the amount of ship traffic east of the Bahamas is very light. I'm impressed with how well the NHC and the model ensembles did with the part and intensity of the storm. It was never expected to just go poof. However, it was only fighter because we could track it with satellite and HH reports. In 1950, this would have been a TW/TS and that's it. Bertha actually behaved pretty much as forecast for its whole life up until now, regardless of the wishcasting going on here.
Was doing some research on Hawaii hurricane history.

With the current track of Iselle trekking across the islands as a tropical storm, she would be the strongest storm to affect the islands since Iniki in 1992. Also, her projected path over/through the eastern islands as a tropical storm is virtually unprecedented in the NOAA interactive database. Combine that with a potential Julio this weekend, and Hawaii's got a pretty active season. Link



Quoting 781. Envoirment:



I don't think the Barbados entity is acossiated with the tropical wave:






You are correct, the wave is ahead of the cluster.
Quoting 768. wunderkidcayman:


So can we officially call it Groblob


What chances do you give this system in producing winds above 30 knots in the next 5 days and do you think it will go anywhere near Cuba?
Quoting 776. Relix:
Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?


Let's wait for Grothar to use his blobometer to determine potential impact.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Here I'll give you a better view
And the surface trof is located exactly where on your map?
795. 1344
Iselle is really starting to worry me. It really has 24-36 hours left to weaken, and at this rate, this could easily be a hurricane at landfall. Buildings in Hawaii aren't the best, and Hilo is very prone to storm surge.
Quoting Grothar:


You are correct, the wave is ahead of the cluster.

If you look on the satellite the convection that's in front of our blob is part of the tropical wave and is helping moisten the environment in front of our blob
Good Morning Class!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 05 Aug 8:32 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 05 Aug 8:20 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
05 Aug 8:20 am PDT 66 40 38 ESE 3G05 OK
05 Aug 8:10 am PDT 64 39 39 E 2G04 OK
05 Aug 8:00 am PDT 64 39 39 E 2G04 OK
05 Aug 7:50 am PDT 64 38 38 ESE 2G04 OK
05 Aug 7:40 am PDT 62 39 42 ENE 2G03 OK
05 Aug 7:30 am PDT 61 42 49 ENE 2G04 OK
05 Aug 7:20 am PDT 61 42 50 ENE 1G03 OK
05 Aug 7:10 am PDT 60 40 47 SSE 1G02 OK
05 Aug 7:00 am PDT 61 40 46 S 1G02 OK
05 Aug 6:50 am PDT 58 41 54 G02 OK
05 Aug 6:40 am PDT 56 40 55 NNE 1G02 OK
05 Aug 6:30 am PDT 55 38 53 SW 1G03 OK
Quoting 794. sar2401:

And the surface trof is located exactly where on your map?


It's the line with a break in it near Barbados, just before the islands.
Quoting 793. rmbjoe1954:



Let's wait for Grothar to use his blobometer to determine potential impact.


Conditions are hostile in the Caribbean. Strong trade winds and weak steering currents. Entering the "Dead Zone". The John Hope Rule.
Quoting FranklinGray:


What chances do you give this system in producing winds above 30 knots in the next 5 days and do you think it will go anywhere near Cuba?

Oh I'd say under the present conditions 2 day percentage 20% low 5 day percentage 40% medium
That may change as the day progress and the days to come

Quoting 795. 1344:
Iselle is really starting to worry me. It really has 24-36 hours left to weaken, and at this rate, this could easily be a hurricane at landfall. Buildings in Hawaii aren't the best, and Hilo is very prone to storm surge.


All those high slopes on the big island would probably kill her, but not before she dumps an absolutely ridiculous amount of rain on them.

There's still time for the convection to go "poof" though.
CSU reported the other day that July 2014 was likely to be among the driest Julys on record for the MDR, but they were having issues accessing the dataset. Well, that issue is fixed and it's official--it was the driest July on record in the MDR.

This is a waste of time since the Doc will post a new blog within five minutes, but we would have known there was a storm out there. Ship reports would have told us that. Until it got east of the Bahamas, we probably would have pegged it as a TS at least. I don't think it ever would have reached hurricane status just because the amount of ship traffic east of the Bahamas is very light. I'm impressed with how well the NHC and the model ensembles did with the part and intensity of the storm. It was never expected to just go poof. However, it was only fighter because we could track it with satellite and HH reports. In 1950, this would have been a TW/TS and that's it. Bertha actually behaved pretty much as forecast for its whole life up until now, regardless of the wishcasting going on here.

exactly sar...and since bertha was traveling at about the pace of a ship....and that her wind signature was as small as it was....there could have been a chance she was missed...or at the very least...misrepresented.....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 800. wunderkidcayman:


Oh I'd say under the present conditions 2 day percentage 20% low 5 day percentage 40% medium
That may change as the day progress and the days to come




Thank you. It seems I may been delayed too late to get north this season. I have a very narrow weather window to leave Wednesday morning or can't go at all for at least a week according to the GFS model but this wave could change things drastically in 3 days, but if I go, in three days I will not know about it until it's too late.

For all you bloggers out there, I'd appreciate any additional information about this wave as you get it. It is causing me great concern about my decision on go or no go that I have to make this afternoon.
you can worry as much as you want about weather. it wont make any difference. so why worry? nevertheless "really little worried" about the approaching cv season
Quoting sar2401:
And the surface trof is located exactly where on your map?


What you don't see it
What you don't see it

thinking more than one don't see it.....LOL
Quoting 764. Grothar:



Great Sat Pics Grothar - the Barbados blob is pretty impressive - gonna be wet in the Windwards for a day or so.
There have been three hurricanes in the past century. Iwa in 1983 as well as the other two.