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Hurricane Iselle a Threat to Hawaii; Latvia's 100°F an All-Time Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on August 05, 2014

Hurricane Iselle began a gradual weakening process overnight, falling from a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds to Category 3 with 125 mph winds at 11 am EDT Tuesday. Ocean temperatures beneath the storm are about 26°C, which is marginal for maintaining a hurricane, and plots of Maximum Potential Intensity from the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies show that the Iselle should only be able to maintain Category 2 strength with these ocean temperatures and the current atmospheric background conditions. Iselle is headed westwards at 9 mph towards Hawaii, and will begin affecting the Hawaiian Islands Thursday night. Satellite images show an Iselle is an impressive storm with a large eye and intense eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops, but the storm is no longer symmetric, due to wind shear and dry air eating away at its southwest side. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall qualify Iselle to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as "annular". Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger, maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular hurricanes.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Iselle from 19:40 UTC (3:40 pm EDT) August 4, 2014. At the time, Iselle was a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Iselle was showing an annual structure--a lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Iselle
Wind shear is expected to stay moderate for the next four days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 26°C. However, the atmosphere surrounding Iselle will begin to dry considerably beginning on Tuesday afternoon, which should force steady weakening until the storm reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Thursday night. Due to is annular structure, Iselle will likely weaken more slowly than a typical hurricane, and it could still be a strong tropical storm capable of generating dangerous heavy rains when it reaches the islands. The Tuesday morning 06Z run of the HWRF model predicted that Iselle would dump widespread rains of 4 - 8" over the islands, with some isolated areas of 8 - 16". The 11 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Hilo on the Big Island a 50% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 4% chance of hurricane-force winds. These odds were 31% and 1%, respectively, for Honolulu. The Tuesday morning runs of our four top intensity models were in poor agreement, predicting Iselle would arrive in the islands with maximum sustained winds ranging from 45 mph to 90 mph. Historically, no hurricane approaching from the east has ever affected the islands, and I expect Iselle will weaken below hurricane strength before reaching the islands. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters' jet is scheduled to fly a dropsonde mission on Tuesday evening out of Honolulu, and an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly a low-level mission into the hurricane early Wednesday morning. The data from these flights should help make better forecasts for Iselle beginning early Wednesday morning.

After Iselle comes Julio
After Iselle finishes its close encounter with the Hawaiian Islands late this week, the islands need be concerned with yet another tropical cyclone: Tropical Storm Julio, which had top winds of 60 mph at 11 am EDT on Tuesday. Satellite loops show that Julio is headed westwards towards Hawaii on a path very similar to Iselle's, and the storm should be able to take advantage of light to moderate wind shear and warm ocean temperatures to become a hurricane by Wednesday. The Tuesday morning 06Z run of HWRF model predicted that Julio, like Iselle, would be capable of dumping widespread rains of 4 - 8" in the vicinity of the islands, with some isolated areas of 8 - 16". The model had Julio's heavy rain swath barely missing the islands. However, given the large errors present in 5+ day hurricane forecasts, it is quite possible that Julio's heaviest rains will hit the islands, potentially falling on soils already saturated by Hurricane Iselle, resulting in extremely dangerous and destructive flooding. The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) Tuesday runs of our top hurricane track models (the GFS, European, HWRF, and GFDL) all show Julio missing the Hawaiian Islands to the north in their 5-day forecasts, so I am cautiously optimistic that Hawaii can avoid a devastating one-two punch from Iselle and then Julio.


Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2013. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. Only one named storm approaching from the east has hit the islands since 1949, an unnamed 1958 tropical storm that hit the Big Island. Hurricanes approaching from the south represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Hawaii's hurricane history
On average, between four and five tropical cyclones are observed in the Central Pacific every year. This number has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as eleven in 1992 and 1994. August is the peak month, followed by July, then September. Tropical storms and hurricanes are rare in the Hawaiian Islands. Since 1949, the Hawaiian Islands have received a direct hit from just two hurricanes--Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. Only one tropical storm has hit the islands since 1949--an unnamed 1958 storm that hit the Big Island. A brief summary of the three most significant hurricanes to affect Hawaii in modern times:

September 1992: Hurricane Iniki was the strongest, deadliest, and most damaging hurricane to affect Hawaii since records began. It hit the island of Kauai as a Category 4 on September 11, killing six and causing $2 billion in damage.

November 1982: Hurricane Iwa was one of Hawaii's most damaging hurricanes. Although it was only a Category 1 storm, it passed just miles west of Kauai, moving at a speed of nearly 50 miles per hour (80 km/h). Iwa killed one person and did $250 million in damage, making it the second most damaging hurricane to ever hit Hawaii. All the islands reported some surf damage along their southwest facing shores, and wind damage was widespread on Kauai.

August 1959: Hurricane Dot entered the Central Pacific as a Category 4 hurricane just south of Hawaii, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall on Kauai. Dot brought sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 103 mph to Kilauea Light. Damage was in excess of $6 million. No Dot-related deaths were recorded.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Bertha at 1:50 pm EDT August 4, 2014. At the time, Bertha was a Category 1 storm with top winds of 80 mph. Image credit: NASA EARTHDATA.

Bertha headed out to sea
In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Bertha is on its way to the North Atlantic graveyard for the tropical cyclones--the cold waters south of Canada. Bertha was able to hold onto hurricane status for 18 hours on Monday and Tuesday morning, but higher wind shear has taken its toll on the storm, reducing it to a 60 mph tropical storm as of 11 am EDT Tuesday. Visible satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed the typical signature of a weak tropical storm struggling with wind shear--a low level center that was exposed to view with only a small area of heavy thunderstorms that was limited to one side of the circulation. High wind shear and very cool waters of 20°C will convert Bertha into a powerful extratropical storm on Wednesday, and its remnants could bring some heavy rain showers and tropical storm-force winds gusts to Southeast Newfoundland on Thursday. Along with Hurricane Arthur, Hurricane Bertha gives us two Atlantic hurricanes so far this year, matching the total number of hurricanes during the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. The second (and final) hurricane of the 2013 season (Ingrid) did not arrive until September 14. On average, the second hurricane of the Atlantic season arrives on August 28. The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)


Figure 4. Typhoon Halong as photographed and tweeted by astronaut Reid Wiseman at 09:35 UTC August 5, 2014. At the time, Halong was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds.

Weakening Typhoon Halong headed towards Japan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Halong, formerly a mighty Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds on Sunday, had weakened significantly to a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds at 11 am EDT Tuesday morning. Satellite loops show that Halong no longer has an eye, though a new eyewall is trying to build. Halong is expected to affect Southern Japan as a Category 1 typhoon late this week.

Latvia sets a new national heat record
On Monday, August 4, 2014, for the second consecutive day, the nation of Latvia recorded its hottest temperature in its recorded history. The mercury hit 100.0°F (37.8°C) at Ventspili (also spelled Ventspils), the first 100°F reading ever recorded in the Baltic countries (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.) Latvia's previous all-time heat record of 98°F (36.7°C) was set just the day before, on August 3, 2014. Prior to that, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Latvia was 97.5°F (36.4°C) in August 1943 at Daugavpils. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has more details in his latest blog post.

According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one other nation has seen an all-time national heat record in recent weeks--Iran, where the mercury rose to 127.4°F (53.0°C) at Gotvand on July 17, 2014, tying the record set at Delhoran, Iran in July 2011. I hear you saying, yes, but it was a dry heat. True enough. In fact, the air was so dry over Iran during the July 17, 2014 heat wave that in Delhoran, where the temperature topped out at 125°F (51.5°C), an astonishingly low relative humidity of 0.8% was recorded. There was a difference of 131°F (73°C) between the temperature and dew point.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Jeff..
I got helicopters buzzing overhead as the second Ebola patient begins her ride over to Emory (and subsequently right by my home).
"The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)"

Both Andrew and Bonnie in 1992 became hurricanes.

Thanks for the blog.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
500mb relative humidity was at its lowest point on record in the MDR during July.

sometimes with these hi. systems coming from the east there actually is less wind because it breaks down the brisk trade winds
Thanks Dr. M
Thanks for the blog! I couldn't imagine what 53ºC would feel like.
Quoting 3. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)"

Both Andrew and Bonnie in 1992 became hurricanes.

Thanks for the blog.


There was an unnamed subtropical storm that preceded Andrew in 1992, I was counting that, though my language wasn't clear...

Dr. M.
Quoting 3. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)"

Both Andrew and Bonnie in 1992 became hurricanes.

Thanks for the blog.


There was a subtropical storm beforehand though, so technically it's 1983.

Edit: Beaten to it. :p
I was afraid of that. Jeff wouldn't talk about the wave approaching the Caribbean sea :(

I know waves don't mean much to you guys but when at sea on a small sailboat they mean a lot to me. Please keep the information coming on that wave so I can make an informed decision to go or not (6 days at sea going around Cuba heading north).

I'd love to wait for a more sure forecast but I have a feeling if I don't get out of here tomorrow I'll be suck here until late fall and Immigration in Caymans may not like that and of course, I'll have to fight the northern fronts then :(
why that tropical wave near the Lesser Islands has no potential to development?
Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters!
Quite the contrast between Iselle and Bertha yesterday.
An annular Cat 4 VS exposed Cat 1...

Quoting 3. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)"

Both Andrew and Bonnie in 1992 became hurricanes.

Thanks for the blog.


This is true, technically 1992 was the last year to have the first two named systems be hurricanes. There was a subtropical storm that formed in April in 1992 that wasn't operationally noticed, and wouldn't have been named as it was. The more proper way to phrase it would be that 1983 was the last time the first two tropical systems in the Atlantic both became hurricanes.

Just saw Dr. Master's comment. I'm kind of a slow typer :p
The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)

sorry Doc but I also have to give kudos to TA13, CyberTeddy and Hurricanes 101 as they stated this yesterday to my question..:)
Quoting FranklinGray:
I was afraid of that. Jeff wouldn't talk about the wave approaching the Caribbean sea :(

I know waves don't mean much to you guys but when at sea on a small sailboat they mean a lot to me. Please keep the information coming on that wave so I can make an informed decision to go or not (6 days at sea going around Cuba heading north).

I'd love to wait for a more sure forecast but I have a feeling if I don't get out of here tomorrow I'll be suck here until late fall and Immigration in Caymans may not like that and of course, I'll have to fight the northern fronts then :(

Oh your here is Cayman
Well if anything just go for it
Better now than never eh
remember cantori visiting the big island a few yrs ago. hopefully this threat is similiar
Quoting ArturoCR:
why that tropical wave near the Lesser Islands has no potential to development?

Hello new guy
I wouldn't say no potential at all
Quoting islander101010:
remember cantori visiting the big island a few yrs ago. hopefully this threat is similiar

I wish he could come to Cayman one time when we are getting a storm or hurricane
"I hear you saying, yes, but it was a dry heat. True enough."

Yeah, 125°F but it only felt like 108°F, heh.

Link
Interesting wave south of Panama. Very doubtful anything will come of it, it is likely just a heat induced, short term cluster of storms but the location is noteworthy. Water temps are good and it is in a moist environment. Hard to find wind shear data for that part of the Pacific. I don't know of any storms that have formed in that vicinity but the EPAC has been spitting out systems. You never know.

Thanks Doc.
Quoting FranklinGray:
I was afraid of that. Jeff wouldn't talk about the wave approaching the Caribbean sea :(

I know waves don't mean much to you guys but when at sea on a small sailboat they mean a lot to me. Please keep the information coming on that wave so I can make an informed decision to go or not (6 days at sea going around Cuba heading north).

I'd love to wait for a more sure forecast but I have a feeling if I don't get out of here tomorrow I'll be suck here until late fall and Immigration in Caymans may not like that and of course, I'll have to fight the northern fronts then :(
I know what you mean. I spent about 25 years sailing the Caribbean in everything from a 24 foot Hunter to a 40 foot Jeanneau cat. Much nicer in the big boat. The area of thunderstorms near Barbados has no model support to develop, which is why the NHC isn't carrying it as an area of interest. If it does develop, it will either go west into the Caribbean or north on a similar path to Bertha. If it goes west, it's in big trouble and the strong trades and dry air will shred it. If it goes north, it should be too far east to affect Cuba. Don't worry about it now. Go on your sail and just keep an eye on the tropics, just like you would with nothing currently shown by the Islands. You can always duck into a hurricane hole somewhere if you have to but the the highest probability is that the weather won't be a major factor.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I got helicopters buzzing overhead as the second Ebola patient begins her ride over to Emory (and subsequently right by my home).
Just scrub down the whole front of the house with bleach. That should kill any Ebola germs that manage to sneak out of the ambulance as it goes by.
I was afraid of that. Jeff wouldn't talk about the wave approaching the Caribbean sea :(

I know waves don't mean much to you guys but when at sea on a small sailboat they mean a lot to me. Please keep the information coming on that wave so I can make an informed decision to go or not (6 days at sea going around Cuba heading north).


from past experience...an email to the miami NWS would probably give you the best answer
Quoting 18. wunderkidcayman:


Hello new guy
I wouldn't say no potential at all



Hello, I think that, but in the 5 day NHC outlook doesn´t appear.

By the way, I´m from Costa Rica and I´m just like a freak for all about the weather.
Thanks Dr.  Good news on a weakening storm on approach to Hawaii and interesting stat on Latvia. Would note on the Latvia issue that it was also warm at times during the Sochi Winter Olympics this past Fall with some events postponed or delayed in terms of ice and/or snow making machines. So the obvious question, apart from the record for this day, is whether they have been experiencing warmer temps overall this year, including the 2013-2014 Winter, in that general region (Russia).  
Quoting 22. Stoopid1:

Interesting wave south of Panama. Very doubtful anything will come of it, it is likely just a heat induced, short term cluster of storms but the location is noteworthy. Water temps are good and it is in a moist environment. Hard to find wind shear data for that part of the Pacific. I don't know of any storms that have formed in that vicinity but the EPAC has been spitting out systems. You never know.


Climatalogically it would need to make it a little farther west. Francesca 1970 is about the easternmost development.
Julio

Luckily the line of storms has shifted north of my area in South Fort Myers.
But it looks like more rain is forming and heading this way.
I picked up over 4" yesterday and 1.01" so far today.
It feels like a tropical rain forest outside.

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 27. ArturoCR:



Hello, I think that, but in the 5 day NHC outlook doesn´t appear.

By the way, I´m from Costa Rica and I´m just like a freak for all about the weather.
Where in Costa Rica? The rain in the eastern part has been plentiful, but the west is pretty dry. I'm on the western edge of the eastern rainy zone.
Possible Bertha will become a hurricane again for a short period of time?????

Thank you very much, Dr. Masters. Huge areas to cover in your post ;-)

LATVIA: Latvians flee to beaches and water fountains as the country sizzles in record temperatures
ITN/Reuters.This is the hottest summer of the century in Latvia and heat records are being broken every day. On Sunday (August 3), the highest ever registered air temperature of 36.7 degrees Celsius was measured only to be immediately topped on Monday (August 4) with 37.8 degrees. The heat record had not been broken for 71 years - the previous highest registered temperature was 36.4 degrees Celsius in 1943. "For the second day in a row the air temperature records have been broken, today in the middle of the day, at around 1 p.m., the temperature reached new highs of 36.9 degrees in Ventspils, and one hour later it was already over 37 degrees. It has never been this hot in Latvia," meteorologist, Laura Krunima told Reuters TV. Such heat is a rarity in Latvia, with usual average air temperatures in summer during the day reaching only slightly above 20 degrees Celsius. As temperatures continue to soar Latvians are flocking to any beach they can reach and those that can't make it are knee deep in any fountain they can find. "Yes, this heat is extreme. Latvia has never experienced such heat. I love warm weather but this is really heat. I have nothing to compare it with. Another Egypt," said one local Guna Bukava about the last week where temperatures at night have even stayed over 20 degrees. In the next few days, the temperature will drop, but not under 30 degrees Celsius. Meteorologists forecast that the heat will continue at least until mid-August.

Current maximum temperatures in Europe and in the Baltic States (unfortunately I didn't save a map from yesterday with those heat records in Latvia)




Source.

Update on the fire situation in Sweden:



Emergency crews ready for fire to spread north
The Local (Sweden)
LIVE UPDATES: Firefighters readied themselves on Tuesday afternoon for the massive forest fire sweeping central Sweden to head further north. The fire has scorched forests for six days and killed one.
Genevieve sure is a well organized depression...



so whats the next system to watch? looks to be quiet for a week after bertha
Quoting Grothar:
Possible Bertha will become a hurricane again for a short period of time?????



Not sure. Bertha's got the coastal Low riding piggy back. Not sure if that Low is helping or hurting.

Quoting 11. FranklinGray:

I was afraid of that. Jeff wouldn't talk about the wave approaching the Caribbean sea :(

I know waves don't mean much to you guys but when at sea on a small sailboat they mean a lot to me. Please keep the information coming on that wave so I can make an informed decision to go or not (6 days at sea going around Cuba heading north).

I'd love to wait for a more sure forecast but I have a feeling if I don't get out of here tomorrow I'll be suck here until late fall and Immigration in Caymans may not like that and of course, I'll have to fight the northern fronts then :(


The NCEP Caribbean Desk (link below) issues daily Caribbean forecasts (Monday through Friday)  that are good out to 3-4 days so you should check on this link regularly as they also discuss "waves" that are headed towards the Caribbean.  For obvious safety reasons, I would not sail if a wave is headed to your parts during the trip.

Link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.h tml

 TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKSNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
745 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. MID-UPPER
RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED IN A CLOSED HIGH JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. RIDGE IS EXTENDING AN AXIS INTO PUERTO
RICO/VU/NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SMALL TUTT LOW EXTENDS AT 27N
63W...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT
LOW-LEVELS...A BROAD AND FAST-MOVING EASTERLY WAVE HAS ITS AXIS
OVER THE ISLANDS...EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UP TO 23N 64W.
TRADE WINDS ARE STRONG WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25KT ABOVE 925 HPA. THIS
IS LEADING TO NUMEROUS FAST MOVING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY...EXTENDING AT 57W.
THIS WAVE IS CHARACTERIZED BY LARGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND IS
SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD/INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES.

MODELS ARE SHOWING TUTT MEANDERING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE TUTT WILL CENTER OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. AT
LOW LEVELS...EASTERLY WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUTT WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION...YET
MODELS CONTINUE CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS ENHANCEMENT REMAINING WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODERATE BETWEEN WAVES...EXPECTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...A MORE ROBUST ONE...IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
CONTINUES APPEARING LARGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE EVIDENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS
CONTINUE SUSTAINING THEIR SOLUTIONS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER 15-20MM/DAY DURING BOTH DAYS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS...SUGGESTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFFECTING
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO APPROACH THE 1-2 INCH RAIN. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING AMOUNTS OFTEN BELOW 15MM IN ANY SHOWERS.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

Quoting 42. Sfloridacat5:



Not sure. Bertha's got the coastal Low riding piggy back. Not sure if that Low is helping or hurting.


It's helping.
Not impressed with the wave train right now.
Quoting Grothar:
Possible Bertha will become a hurricane again for a short period of time?????

It's not impossible, but it is highly unlikely. Looking at it with the visible rather than always dramatic rainbow, it looks like the newest blowup in convection is covering the previously exposed NE quadrant of the storm. I think this is being caused by baroclinic forcing from the low to the north and has nothing to do with the low off the SE US coast. As Bertha gets closer to the low, it should weaken and then be absorbed. I suspect the NHC is going to want to see more than a couple of hours of a little better thunderstorm activity before they would reclassify Bertha.

Quoting 40. MAweatherboy1:

Genevieve sure is a well organized depression...





More like 60kt. :)


out to sea
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Genevieve sure is a well organized depression...





I remember Kiko last year developing an eye while it was still classified as a depression.
Quoting 40. MAweatherboy1:

Genevieve sure is a well organized depression...



Not too much further..~8degW & she will be the first storm to go from the East Pacific, all the way to the West Pacific since Jimena in 2003. The models are favoring her to make it. We've been tracking her as a depression or stronger since July 25th.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters....
Quoting 37. Grothar:

Possible Bertha will become a hurricane again for a short period of time?????




That's some good deep convection right over the center! Perhaps Bertha has a little more fight left in her. Would be nice to get an eye out of her.

Delhoran on July 17th:
Conditions: Sunny
Air temp: 125 Degrees Fahrenheit
Relative Humidity: 0.8%
Dew Point: -7 Degrees Fahrenheit
Heat Index: 104 degrees Fahrenheit
BAMD has Bertha almost making it back to her splashdown! Has that ever happened?
Quoting 55. redwagon:

BAMD has Bertha almost making it back to her splashdown! Has that ever happened?


What if we had the same tropical system just circling the atlantic for a few months...
Probably be like nadine..gets tired of it after like 2 weeks.
wet down there by you huh Gro?.............................................. .....
Quoting 37. Grothar:

Possible Bertha will become a hurricane again for a short period of time?????


She is full of surprises.
Quoting 40. MAweatherboy1:

Genevieve sure is a well organized depression...




I will call this one cattycane.
how cute!!
Latest satellite image of Iselle shows the eye beginning to fill. The storm is also getting eroded along its southwest edge, and the outflow channel to the south has been cutoff. Conversely, the northern outflow channel seems to have taken up the slack. Interesting to note that this channel is directed right at California where currently we are still in an unusually persistent monsoonal pattern with a midlevel low off the coast ready to receive Iselle's outflow...we can only hope.
Latest MIMICs from Bertha and Iselle:



Quoting 57. LargoFl:

wet down there by you huh Gro?.............................................. .....


Not today, but we had a good deal of local flooding the past two days. Violent lightning storms
Just imagine on an Earth-like water world like Gliese how strong hurricanes could get!!! No dust, wind shear, or cold water along their path.
Quoting 60. Skyepony:


Greetings Skye. I wouldnt be surprised if Bertha briefly hit hurricane status before heading out across the Atlantic.
Quoting Grothar:


Not today, but we had a good deal of local flooding the past two days. Violent lightning storms


I've had my car battered by softball sized hail, I've had some close brushes with tornadoes, and even had some cray moments with flooding, but man, nothing scares me more when I'm chasing than lightning. It's so powerful and random.
Wet pattern in the south
Quoting 55. redwagon:

BAMD has Bertha almost making it back to her splashdown! Has that ever happened?


Yes.
Interesting and dire article which is related to the mentioning of the record heat in Iran in the last part of doc's entry, so not off topic (and havn't I read similar anaysis about running out of ground waters concerning western parts of the US?). Very bad news anyway.

Drought to force Iran to shut down agriculture
Zawya, August 1, 2014, By Umid Niayesh
A severe country wide water shortage across the Islamic Republic of Iran could result in the disappearance of the 3,000-year-old agriculture industry, an Iranian climate expert said.
The drought will hit sooner or later, but it's the anticipation that Iranians are learning to cope with. Iran is currently undergoing some tough economic times.
"For the time being Iran's limited water reserves are strategic and agriculture is not an economic priority sector any more," Nasser Karami, Iranian physical climatologist who is an associate professor at the University of Bergen in Norway told Trend on July 31.
Located in an arid zone, Iran is just one of the countries facing severe water problems, such severe droughts have plagued the country over the last 40 years. The drought of 1992-2002 caused a major blow to agriculture. There were quotas imposed for fresh water in several cities, including the capital Tehran.
Karami explains that food security is an important issue for all countries having a stable agriculture sector for a country such as Iran is a serious priority, however under the current circumstances using limited vital water sources for the agriculture sector is not logical.
Iran faces serious threat of loosing its water resources and changing into a desert because of the depletion of groundwater sources, the expert said.
Producing any agricultural product in Iran costs several times more than its import, considering the real price of the water, he underlined.
Iran's total annual water consumption is approximately 93 billion cubic meters, out of which about 92 percent is used in agriculture (86 billion cubic meters), 6.6 percent in municipality (6.18 billion cubic meters), and 1.2 percent in industry (1.12 billion cubic meters), according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO).
Up to 70 percent of water used in the agriculture sector is being wasted, Iranian officials say.
The country ranks first in the world for wasting water resources, Massoumeh Ebtekar, head of Environmental Protection Organization said on Jan 9. The out dated agriculture activities are the main culprit behind the current water crisis in Iran.
Karami says that Iran has changed its previous traditional agricultural models which were tested over the last 3,000 years.
New lands went under cultivation without considering its capacity, suitable crop types changed and the irrigation methods which were not suitable with the water reserves used, he explained.
He went on to note that 650,000 deep wells were drilled in the country in recent decades which swallowed groundwater.
In the last 30 years Iran consumed 70 percent of its groundwater reserves, which were collected in a million years, according to the expert. Up to 62 percent of water used in the country's agriculture comes from groundwater reserves, according to the FAO.
While responding to a question about possible solutions, Karami said that it is too late to take efficient steps on the issue. However, he says that Iran has no choice other than to limit its agriculture sector to very strategic products as well as products with lowest water consumption level.
"The main part of the Iran's agriculture sector should be shut down, because the country has entered a long-term period of drought," Karami said, adding that "in particular if we notice very low efficiency rate of water sources which are used in the sector."
He also noted that the issue is beyond eliminating agriculture. "Drought is also destroying the country's wildlife and nature. Plains are changing to deserts. Habitats have disappeared in recent 30 years and the country has lost over 90 percent of its wildlife," Karami explained. ...

Rest of the article see link above.

Water shortages threatens major cities in Iran
Published on Sunday, 03 August 2014 23:39

Quoting 66. tornadodude:



I've had my car battered by softball sized hail, I've had some close brushes with tornadoes, and even had some cray moments with flooding, but man, nothing scares me more when I'm chasing than lightning. It's so powerful and random.


Hey TD! I don't care for it myself. It can be a very hair-raising experience.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey TD! I don't care for it myself. It can be a very hair-raising experience.


Haha hair-raising, albeit an enlightening one...

Enjoying your rain lately?
Blobcon 2. Interpolation..unk..RI...unk..trash condition...almost!

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get Cristobal next week. 7 days from now via the ECMWF, a scenario it's been very consistent with off the US East Coast.

Quoting 36. CaneFreeCR:

Where in Costa Rica? The rain in the eastern part has been plentiful, but the west is pretty dry. I'm on the western edge of the eastern rainy zone.


West, in the Central Pacific but all the tropical cyclone on the caribbean bring more rain on the pacific zones.
We had a May and July very dry, around 40% less rain than average, but June was just a little bit above average.
Quoting 46. sar2401:

It's not impossible, but it is highly unlikely. Looking at it with the visible rather than always dramatic rainbow, it looks like the newest blowup in convection is covering the previously exposed NE quadrant of the storm. I think this is being caused by baroclinic forcing from the low to the north and has nothing to do with the low off the SE US coast. As Bertha gets closer to the low, it should weaken and then be absorbed. I suspect the NHC is going to want to see more than a couple of hours of a little better thunderstorm activity before they would reclassify Bertha.




Spoilsport.
According to this, Genevieve covers over 1000 miles on Wednesday night

Drove from Tampa to Miami yesterday on I-75. Rain was so bad traffic was down to 30mph (in a 70mph zone) in areas near Naples. Rained all they way into Miami and then stopped when I got home. It had not reached there yet. They said its to be like that again today, if it is not already so.
forgive my ignorance. What is a TUTT?
Quoting 40. MAweatherboy1:

Genevieve sure is a well organized depression...






Looks better than Bertha...
Quoting 80. FranklinGray:
forgive my ignorance. What is a TUTT?


Tropical upper tropospheric trough (wiki-article)
Quoting 38. Grothar:




Development maybe? Hmmmmm.
Iselle

For those interested, you can follow Gonzo as he releases dropsondes in the Pacific.


Quoting 83. FOREX:



Development maybe? Hmmmmm.


I think conditions in the eastern Caribbean are too hostile. Very strong trade winds.
Quoting 11. FranklinGray:
I was afraid of that. Jeff wouldn't talk about the wave approaching the Caribbean sea :(

I know waves don't mean much to you guys but when at sea on a small sailboat they mean a lot to me. Please keep the information coming on that wave so I can make an informed decision to go or not (6 days at sea going around Cuba heading north).

I'd love to wait for a more sure forecast but I have a feeling if I don't get out of here tomorrow I'll be suck here until late fall and Immigration in Caymans may not like that and of course, I'll have to fight the northern fronts then :(


You can see weather for our area under NHC offshore waters forecast under zone AMZ013

Link

If you review today,you will note predominately SE flow over the next 4 days.This would be good to run on a reach all the way to the Yucatan/ western tip of Cuba & then to Key West.

While we have no current Caribbean weather threats to discuss that would affect a sail from Cayman to Key West, history dictates it may be a good idea to consider being out of here from mid August through September, pending your travel plans
Quoting 88. Grothar:



I think conditions in the eastern Caribbean are too hostile. Very strong trade winds.


Dammit.
Thank you for the update Dr Masters.

Atlantic stage with a (last?) blush from Bertha.


Current jet stream stright away to the French coast.
UKMET model has revived a MASSIVE upgrade recently.

Now runs at N768 on the new "ENDGame" core with a resolution of 17km.

There has already been a marked improvement im TC forecasting.

Link
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h

wave nearing Caribbean has negative tilt in low level axis.. may be something to watch in a few days http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim8vi s.html …
Quoting Tazmanian:



Been said 100 times all ready what a TUTT is


FranklinGray has been a member for 6 days, it's entirely possible that it wasn't seen, wasn't online at the time, or simply forgot.

Definitely nothing wrong with posting educational terms a few times. We all learned from someone.
Quoting 88. Grothar:



I think conditions in the eastern Caribbean are too hostile. Very strong trade winds.


Spoilsport
Quoting 84. Grothar:

Iselle




Still a beauty! Rare to see such a symmetric composition at TRMM. A waltz named Iselle for this :-)
I'm fairly impressed with how much the shear has died down in the Caribbean. It's below average for the first time this hurricane season. Anything entering the region will have to be watched for cyclongenesis.



Quoting 92. barbamz:


Atlantic stage with a (last?) blush from Bertha.


Current jet stream stright away to the French coast.

What a beautiful windstream map. What site?
Quoting 100. BayFog:


What a beautiful windstream map. What site?


Welcome. Here you go for the northern hemisphere: Link

And here the main page (really usefull site): Weather and Climate Data
CNN) -- Tropical cyclones in the Pacific do not worry some Hawaiian residents because direct hits historically have been so rare on the islands. Hawaii is a small target in a large ocean.

But the state finds itself prepping ahead of what could be a pair of back-to-back smacks from Hurricane Iselle and Tropical Storm Julio.
I was right, we ARE experiencing an El Nino...or is it La Nina? Just check the Weekly Weather Roundup!

How fast would an evaporation pan drop in Iran with a 131 degree dew point difference?

100 degrees F, doesn't count as an historical record just because they record in Celsius!

-ha hah!

Barbamz, I love that post #62 perspective.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm fairly impressed with how much the shear has died down in the Caribbean. It's below average for the first time this hurricane season. Anything entering the region will have to be watched for cyclongenesis.





The wave that just entered the Caribbean has some spin to it, but everything is moving so quickly right now through the Caribbean.
An interesting, if not somewhat surprising, pattern appears to be shaping up for August. VSHD is below average in the Caribbean for the first time this season as I noted a minute ago, and the level of TCHP in the western Caribbean and GOMEX are impressive for even La Nina years, and insane for a budding El Nino year. Meanwhile, the pattern of troughing appears to be lifting out per the 500mb height forecast from the CFS and the GFS ensembles , and the CFS (not a model to be used for tropical cyclone genesis, but can show pattern shifts) is starting to portray hurricanes moving across the Atlantic. The biggest impediment right now is the lack of vertical instability in the MDR. Until that changes, all of this is just fun to look at. It's also pretty stable in the Caribbean right now, with high trade winds to boot, so that wave entering right now has very little chance to develop.





Quoting LargoFl:
CNN) -- Tropical cyclones in the Pacific do not worry some Hawaiian residents because direct hits historically have been so rare on the islands. Hawaii is a small target in a large ocean.

But the state finds itself prepping ahead of what could be a pair of back-to-back smacks from Hurricane Iselle and Tropical Storm Julio.


Earlier on TWC they were saying that Tropical Storm JULIO was more of a threat because Hurricane ISELLE would moisten up the environment for Julio.
Traditionally storms coming from the East weaken significantly because of cooler water and drier air at those latitudes.

It's usually the storms that come up from the south from lower latitudes that are the greatest threat.

Quoting 80. FranklinGray:

forgive my ignorance. What is a TUTT?



A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere.

Not everybody on this blog is a jerk, Franklin.
I could honestly see 4-5 named this month if there's a pattern shift towards a more favorable environment.
Just a little dry in the Caribbean right now.

110. FOREX
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:



The wave that just entered the Caribbean has some spin to it, but everything is moving so quickly right now through the Caribbean.
Grothar is now issuing wave alerts. Please stand by.
Quoting 105. CybrTeddy:









Tropical Atlantic THDV:
We still have this boundary across Southern Florida. Northerly flow north of the boundary and a southerly flow south of the boundary.

115. JLPR2
This looks somewhat promising.


Water rationing for the homes in the metro area of PR fed by the two main dams (La Plata & Carraízo) was pushed back to the end of August/September, so, if we don't get any rains till then we will be back to where we were before Bertha.
Analog picks by the CPC for 8-14 day 500mb height anomalies. Top pick is August 27, 1961.

Quoting 64. weatherbro:

Just imagine on an Earth-like water world like Gliese how strong hurricanes could get!!! No dust, wind shear, or cold water along their path.
we will have big hurricanes with winds over 240 mph all the time..
Quoting 83. FOREX:



Development maybe? Hmmmmm.
Looks impressive, but until 850 vorticity its Sorry Charley.
120. JRRP


Dry mid to upper levels out in the Pacific


123. Siker
Quoting CybrTeddy:
An interesting, if not somewhat surprising, pattern appears to be shaping up for August. VSHD is below average in the Caribbean for the first time this season as I noted a minute ago, and the level of TCHP in the western Caribbean and GOMEX are impressive for even La Nina years, and insane for a budding El Nino year. Meanwhile, the pattern of troughing appears to be lifting out per the 500mb height forecast from the CFS and the GFS ensembles , and the CFS (not a model to be used for tropical cyclone genesis, but can show pattern shifts) is starting to portray hurricanes moving across the Atlantic. The biggest impediment right now is the lack of vertical instability in the MDR. Until that changes, all of this is just fun to look at. It's also pretty stable in the Caribbean right now, with high trade winds to boot, so that wave entering right now has very little chance to develop.







If the shift in steering patterns occurs, it would occur at a very opportune time as the MJO works its way through Phase 2.



124. JLPR2
I wish the humidity at my area were lower.
Uncomfortable. :\

Partly Cloudy and Breezy
87°F
Humidity 75%
Wind Speed NE 21 mph
Barometer 30.01 in (1016.2 mb)
Dewpoint 78°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 100°F (38°C)
Last Update on 5 Aug 2:56 pm AST
Quoting 88. Grothar:



I think conditions in the eastern Caribbean are too hostile. Very strong trade winds.


Where can I get real time information of the trade winds?
Quoting 32. Grothar:


very interesting that it brings it back to cat 1
127. silas
Iselle is really starting to succumb to that ever present dry air to her west. She has been slowly but steadily weakening since yesterday but it looks like she is now beginning to weaken in a more rapid fashion. The current intensity forecast is probably going to be pretty close, if not slightly too strong if she continues to weaken at this rate. Bye bye pretty storm =(

Quoting 74. CybrTeddy:

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get Cristobal next week. 7 days from now via the ECMWF, a scenario it's been very consistent with off the US East Coast.




I personally find no interest in recurve Atlantic systems unless they are majors.

Another recurve? Wouldn't be surprised.

Yawn, next...
Quoting 120. JRRP:






Two runs in a row that ECMWF shows good wave in 10 days.
Euro solution of a system over land becoming a well developed TC (at least a tropical storm below 1006 mb) in about 24 hours just doesn't seem right to me.

But who knows
Link

More proof of an El Nino.



These fish are rare catches on the pacific coast, except in El Ninos..


Look at all that dry air
Quoting 130. EdMahmoud:

Euro solution of a system over land becoming a well developed TC (at least a tropical storm below 1006 mb) in about 24 hours just doesn't seem right to me.

But who knows


Where is it forming
Quoting 125. ArturoCR:



Where can I get real time information of the trade winds?


I like 850 mb (low level) winds at initialization. Unless the model initialized very badly, the hour 0 and hour 6 forecasts should be pretty reasonable.





Shear isn't *that* terrible right now in the Caribbean. One thing to note, as 850 mb winds increase in speed going to the West, that implies low level divergence, which is not favorable for development.

Barbamz's asleep but didn't Iran get a rather large cyclone 5 or so years ago? It seemed about 1/4 the size of the country.
Quoting 136. nwobilderburg:



Where is it forming


Off the Carolinas, and the new 12Z Euro has backed off quite a bit and looks more reasonable.
El Nino's typically strengthen Atlantic trade winds.
Quoting 138. redwagon:

Barbamz's asleep but didn't Iran get a rather large cyclone 5 or so years ago? It seemed about 1/4 the size of the country.


You may be thinking of Cyclone Gonu from 2007. Gonu reached category 5 status but weakened before hitting Oman, and eventually Iran before dissipating.

Gonu
Quoting 133. unknowncomic:

Link

More proof of an El Nino.



These fish are rare catches on the pacific coast, except in El Ninos..


I got Bluefin Tuna off Dana Point last week.
Very rare- last time was 1997-1998 Ei Nino in anything approaching the numbers currently.
144. 1344
Quoting 126. abcdeer:

very interesting that it brings it back to cat 1


Conditions get more favorable after today.
does anyone know what the level of lake Okeechobee is after all the rain that fell in s florida yesterday? I heard the army corp of engineers and the south florida water management district is going to be opening the locks leading to the Caloosahatchee and st lucie rivers and inundating our coastlines with fertilizer laced freshwater that will probably produce algee blooms. as far as I knew of last week, the lake was well within the normal levels for this time of year. why the drawdown? are they expecting a wetter than normal august and September?

I remember when they prematurely drewdown the lake in 2006 after fay came through and then we went through a VERY dry fall and winter season, putting the lake at historic low levels by the beginning of the 2007 rainy season.
Lake O is at 14.07
Q: 142, Stoopid1

Yes, just reading up on Gonu, first Iranian cane since 1898. Didn't drop much rain, either.

It looks like the non-blob over the islands is yielding more rain than Bertha did.
Quoting 135. nwobilderburg:



Look at all that dry air
Yep. Annular or not, that dry air is going to do serious damage.
Quoting 133. unknowncomic:

Link

More proof of an El Nino.



These fish are rare catches on the pacific coast, except in El Ninos..
Those are very cool looking fish.
Quoting 145. floridafisherman:

does anyone know what the level of lake Okeechobee is after all the rain that fell in s florida yesterday? I heard the army corp of engineers and the south florida water management district is going to be opening the locks leading to the Caloosahatchee and st lucie rivers and inundating our coastlines with fertilizer laced freshwater that will probably produce algee blooms. as far as I knew of last week, the lake was well within the normal levels for this time of year. why the drawdown? are they expecting a wetter than normal august and September?

I remember when they prematurely drewdown the lake in 2006 after fay came through and then we went through a VERY dry fall and winter season, putting the lake at historic low levels by the beginning of the 2007 rainy season.


I think they are open now. Level is getting high in advance of peak storm season.

Link
Supercell thunderstorm I was lucky enough to witness near Roswell, New Mexico on June 7th.

I thought you guys might like this. I've added an instability product for ocean areas, specifically the tropical regions. The calculation I use is almost identical to that used by NOAA SSD to create the time series below, and the image below that is my 2D GFS analysis, with the anomaly in black contours (you can see the below-normal instability in the eastern MDR). This is available for the GFS and CMC for all tropical regions around the world. Enjoy.



30 day rainfall estimates. Wide spread 15"-20" rain fall across S.W. Florida. What interesting is you can find some dry areas that have only had a 2"-4" in the past 30 days.
Quoting 145. floridafisherman:
does anyone know what the level of lake Okeechobee is after all the rain that fell in s florida yesterday? I heard the army corp of engineers and the south florida water management district is going to be opening the locks leading to the Caloosahatchee and st lucie rivers and inundating our coastlines with fertilizer laced freshwater that will probably produce algee blooms. as far as I knew of last week, the lake was well within the normal levels for this time of year. why the drawdown? are they expecting a wetter than normal august and September?

I remember when they prematurely drewdown the lake in 2006 after fay came through and then we went through a VERY dry fall and winter season, putting the lake at historic low levels by the beginning of the 2007 rainy season.

The last I heard is that they are going to release southward instead of towards us. We shall see what they really do.
Genevieve is a tropical storm...........................again.
Quoting 135. nwobilderburg:



Look at all that dry air


Yep Iselle is Ingesting that dry air into the circulation weakining it.
Quoting 153. Levi32:

I thought you guys might like this. I've added an instability product for ocean areas, specifically the tropical regions. The calculation I use is almost identical to that used by NOAA SSD to create the time series below, and the image below that is my 2D GFS analysis, with the anomaly in black contours (you can see the below-normal instability in the eastern MDR). This is available for the GFS and CMC for all tropical regions around the world. Enjoy.






Tropical cyclones are reciting: "Water, water everywhere and all the boards did shrink. Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink."

Waves enter the MDR like...



Link
Quoting 148. hydrus:

Yep. Annular or not, that dry air is going to do serious damage.


Seems to me that cooler water temps are the main problem. Dry air out ahead of tropical cyclones, including strong ones is often present. Any strong tropical cyclone that has a strong anti-cyclone overhead will lead to strong sinking and dry air out ahead of a cyclone in many cases.

Remember that just because dry air out ahead of a cyclone is present, doesn't mean it will impact it. Often its other things that allow dry air to be pulled into a system and cause problems. A lack of instability, wind shear, and a lack of warm water temps can cause this.

In fact, Iselle is stronger as it is than a tropical cyclone should be able to be over those SST's.

If Iselle was over warmer water in the mid 80's plus, I would be willing to bet it would have no problem with the dry air.

Cooler water will lead to decreasing convective intensity and persistence, which also weakens the eye structure, and the warm core and structure also weakens, which allows the drier air to be problem.

If water was warm enough all the way to Hawaii, we would likely be taking about a major hurricane being a threat to Hawaii. Dry air probably would not find a way inside, as it the case with many other strong hurricanes with a low shear environment and high SST's.

Tropical cyclones naturally pull excessive moisture off the warm ocean surface and lift it over a large and organized scale if its structure is strong due to the right conditions.
160. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Two runs in a row that ECMWF shows good wave in 10 days.

yeah... the MJO will be favorable
Quoting barbamz:


Tropical Atlantic THDV:
LOL. I can see some people sitting, waiting for that kid to turn into a champion high jumper...and then he failed again. :-)
Quoting JLPR2:
This looks somewhat promising.


Water rationing for the homes in the metro area of PR fed by the two main dams (La Plata & Carraízo) was pushed back to the end of August/September, so, if we don't get any rains till then we will be back to where we were before Bertha.
I wish I could agree, but I don't think an inch or so over seven days is even as a good as climatology. :-(


This is definitely weird..
TS Watch for the Big Island... Wonder if she's gonna make it... sooo dry
Quoting 159. Jedkins01:



Seems to me that cooler water temps are the main problem. Dry air out ahead of tropical cyclones, including strong ones is often present. Any strong tropical cyclone that has a strong anti-cyclone overhead will lead to strong sinking and dry air out ahead of a cyclone in many cases.

Remember that just because dry air out ahead of a cyclone is present, doesn't mean it will impact it. Often its other things that allow dry air to be pulled into a system and cause problems. A lack of instability, wind shear, and a lack of warm water temps can cause this.

In fact, Iselle is stronger as it is than a tropical cyclone should be able to be over those SST's.

If Iselle was over warmer water in the mid 80's plus, I would be willing to bet it would have no problem with the dry air.

Cooler water will lead to decreasing convective intensity and persistence, which also weakens the eye structure, and the warm core and structure also weakens, which allows the drier air to be problem.

If water was warm enough all the way to Hawaii, we would likely be taking about a major hurricane being a threat to Hawaii. Dry air probably would not find a way inside, as it the case with many other strong hurricanes with a low shear environment and high SST's.

Tropical cyclones naturally pull excessive moisture off the warm ocean surface and lift it over a large and organized scale if its structure is strong due to the right conditions.
Great post..I know the water temps there now are only marginal for maintaining a cyclone. I shoulda said dry air and cool ocean temps.. I have seen these things stay rather strong over waters supposedly too cool for tropical cyclones to feed on. Probably due to drastic atmospheric temperature differences at different heights. With that being said, a hurricane like Iselle is a perfect engine for taking heat from the ocean and blasting it into the sky.
Quoting 133. unknowncomic:

Link

More proof of an El Nino.



These fish are rare catches on the pacific coast, except in El Ninos..


Catch those daily in hawaii..Moon fish/opah ....soooo ONO!!!!
Is Bertha and that other low like attached??
169. 1344
Quoting 164. Doppler22:

TS Watch for the Big Island... Wonder if she's gonna make it... sooo dry

She should. Dry air can only do so much.
Quoting 167. NoNamePub:



Catch those daily in hawaii..Moon fish/opah ....soooo ONO!!!!


Rare catch off Cali, let alone 3 on the same trip.

With some PRIMO beer!
Q: 167, NoNamePub:

CHECK THIS OUT! We headed south on our Sogioka / Stires trip to fish for yellowtail at the island and ended up catching three opah in shallow water. Armando Castillo 151#'s, Joe Ludlow 180#'s, and Travis Savala 124#'s!!! We hooked five of them all at the same time. Oh by the way, yellowtail fishing was good too.

Is the caption over at Accurate (fishing gear) FB page. 180lb! Looks like a monster Pompano, or butterfish, to me. GatorWX could filet up and serve these beauties!
Julio appears to be approaching hurricane intensity.

upper level low dropping sw 30n 50w as it moves north of the greater antillias look for the atlantic mdr to become more favorable
London calling



Quoting 172. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Julio appears to be approaching hurricane intensity.




RI going on here?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Is Bertha and that other low like attached??
No, and they won't be. Still several hundred miles apart. Look at the centers, not the cloud shields, which make them look much closer. Bertha is moving more NE and much more rapidly than the East Coast low, and they will only get further apart over the next 36 hours.
Quoting 171. redwagon:

Q: 167, NoNamePub:

CHECK THIS OUT! We headed south on our Sogioka / Stires trip to fish for yellowtail at the island and ended up catching three opah in shallow water. Armando Castillo 151#'s, Joe Ludlow 180#'s, and Travis Savala 124#'s!!! We hooked five of them all at the same time. Oh by the way, yellowtail fishing was good too.

Is the caption over at Accurate (fishing gear) FB page. 180lb! Looks like a monster Pompano, or butterfish, to me. GatorWX could filet up and serve these beauties!


Rare indeed.....they must have been lost! Storm blew them off course.

So a little insight into locals mentality here. Mild awareness creeping in. Safeway in Kailua is sold out of water....
I think (rightfully so) everyone is more concerned with Julio....

I am in insurance. We have Ceased binding all new property business.
Quoting 163. JrWeathermanFL:



This is definitely weird..
It's so beautiful minus the heat.I couldn't even tell their was a storm off the coast.
Quoting 174. DonnieBwkGA:

London calling




They have been taking a beating on a regular basis for 100,000 years or so....The Brits will think that the weather has returned to normal.
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

It's so beautiful minus the heat.I couldn't even tell their was a storm off the coast.
She is beautiful...is she single.?...sniffle...
181. silas

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Julio appears to be approaching hurricane intensity.

Eye think eye see an eye!!!!

Quoting NoNamePub:


Rare indeed.....they must have been lost! Storm blew them off course.

So a little insight into locals mentality here. Mild awareness creeping in. Safeway in Kailua is sold out of water....
I think (rightfully so) everyone is more concerned with Julio....

I am in insurance. We have Ceased binding all new property business.
You can still get new property insurance in coastal Alabama...as long as you're willing to put up your first born child as collateral. :-) It seems that underwriters are even more squirrely now than right after the 2004/05 seasons. Maybe it's the idea that we haven't been hit in so long it just has to be this year. It has really put a crimp in new construction within 10 miles of the coast, and our bad tornado season of 2011 is affecting everyone else. I never thought I'd live to see the day that my homeowner's insurance would have a higher monthly cost than my mortgage payment.
Quoting silas:

Eye think eye see an eye!!!!

More than we can say for Bertha at any time in her long life so far...
Quoting 180. hydrus:

She is beautiful...is she single.?...sniffle...
Uhhh..Ummmmm..

Who is making the maps over there, this is obvious %^*&*. Been like
this for days and no one has fixed it.
186. silas
Halong appears to be intensifying quickly. Look at how deep convection has just recently fired around the eye. I could see this regaining major status if it can keep the dry air out of its core.

Quoting 166. CaribBoy:


Great view of St John's Bay in St Barth, I'll never forget that.

Saved loop, click for updates. Bertha's center is once again exposed. Sigh, can't you guys in the US get a decent storm going any more?? :-)
Nevertheless, German weather geeks are already alert because Ex-Bertha could mean the first autumnal storm for us with skills to change current (sultry-murky) weather patterns:


GFS forecast for Sunday. Good night everyone!

And if you like, visit:
First 100F Temperature on Record in the Baltics
By: Christopher C. Burt , 07:24 PM GMT am 05. August 2014

189. silas

Quoting sar2401:
More than we can say for Bertha at any time in her long life so far...
Well...Bertha was and is pathetic. She's the one that will cause some people to want to change the rules for classifying tropical systems...










Tropical Storm BERTHA
5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2014
Location: 36.2°N 70.3°W
Moving: NNE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Quoting 176. sar2401:

No, and they won't be. Still several hundred miles apart. Look at the centers, not the cloud shields, which make them look much closer. Bertha is moving more NE and much more rapidly than the East Coast low, and they will only get further apart over the next 36 hours.


I meant are they part of the front or are all 3 seperate. No dip the 2 lows arent merged. I was wondering if they are now moving along with the trough, which you did answer, and thank you for that.
Quoting 133. unknowncomic:

Link

More proof of an El Nino.



These fish are rare catches on the pacific coast, except in El Ninos..


Wow, they would look great in our aquarium. But I guess you would need a very big plastic bag to get them home from the store.
Q: 177, NoNamePub:
So a little insight into locals mentality here. Mild awareness creeping in. Safeway in Kailua is sold out of water....

It amazes me this year how many islands and nations are out of fresh water. Iraq does de-sal. Why doesn't everybody? Including CentralTX, where I am, and our lakes and aquifers are dry since 2011.

Is de-sal THAT expensive, or what?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


I meant are they part of the front or are all 3 seperate. No dip the 2 lows arent merged. I was wondering if they are now moving along with the trough, which you did answer, and thank you for that.
Sorry I misunderstood your post but, if you read it again, it seemed like a reasonable assumption that your question was if Bertha and the East Coast low were attached. The East Coast low is moving along the stalled frontal boundary while Bertha is moving a separate path toward the frontal boundary to the north.
Q: Gro, 192:

They are apparently solitary, but are known to school with tuna and other scombrids. The fish propel themselves by a lift-based labriform mode of swimming, that is, by flapping their pectoral fins. This, together with their forked caudal fins and depressible median fins, indicates they swim at constantly high speeds like tuna.

Squid and euphausiids (krill) make up the bulk of the opah diet; small fish are also taken. Pop-up archival transmitting tagging operations have indicated, aside from humans, large pelagic sharks, such as great white sharks and mako sharks, are primary predators of opah.

Running ahead of El Nino or something 'else'? Wiki entry notes they are more for taxidermy than eating, due to their rarity outside Hawaii.
850mb (near surface) vorticity..
Quoting 194. sar2401:

Sorry I misunderstood your post but, if you read it again, it seemed like a reasonable assumption that your question was if Bertha and the East Coast low were attached. The East Coast low is moving along the stalled frontal boundary while Bertha is moving a separate path toward the frontal boundary to the north.


Yeah my bad for not being clear.
Quoting 195. redwagon:

Q: Gro, 192:

They are apparently solitary, but are known to school with tuna and other scombrids. The fish propel themselves by a lift-based labriform mode of swimming, that is, by flapping their pectoral fins. This, together with their forked caudal fins and depressible median fins, indicates they swim at constantly high speeds like tuna.

Squid and euphausiids (krill) make up the bulk of the opah diet; small fish are also taken. Pop-up archival transmitting tagging operations have indicated, aside from humans, large pelagic sharks, such as great white sharks and mako sharks, are primary predators of opah.

Running ahead of El Nino or something 'else'? Wiki entry notes they are more for taxidermy than eating, due to their rarity outside Hawaii.


Someone had written about yellowfins and other exotic fish being caught near California, but I don't remember who it was. I think they were asking what that would imply.
Quoting redwagon:
Q: 177, NoNamePub:
So a little insight into locals mentality here. Mild awareness creeping in. Safeway in Kailua is sold out of water....

It amazes me this year how many islands and nations are out of fresh water. Iraq does de-sal. Why doesn't everybody? Including CentralTX, where I am, and our lakes and aquifers are dry since 2011.

Is de-sal THAT expensive, or what?
Yes. Not only does desalinated water cost about 3 times more than an acre foot of fresh water but it takes a huge amount of energy to run a desal plant. That in turn means lots of greenhouse gasses, so environmentalists aren't happy with that prospect. The cost goes up exponentially if you are located far inland and have to transport the desalinated water by long distance pipeline. Environmentalists generally aren't in favor of long distance pipelines either. The cheapest and most environmentally friendly alternative to primary source fresh water is using tertiary-treated waste water, but then we get into the problem of "I'm not going to drink other people's pee.". Using tertiary treated waste water for purposes other than drinking would work but our plumbing systems aren't set up to handle that. Until we are really running out of freshwater and the public is willing to bear these costs, desalination as a replacement for large amounts of fresh water is a non-starter with our current technology.
Quoting 186. silas:

Halong appears to be intensifying quickly. Look at how deep convection has just recently fired around the eye. I could see this regaining major status if it can keep the dry air out of its core.




It's finished its eye wall replacement cycle now:



It's mixed out most of the dry air which is present on the earlier microwave pass and shouldn't have trouble mixing out the rest it now it's firing up deep convection once again. I think it'll be similar to Neoguri and restrengthen to category 3 for a brief period before weakening as it gets closer to mainland Japan.
Quoting 193. redwagon:

Q: 177, NoNamePub:
So a little insight into locals mentality here. Mild awareness creeping in. Safeway in Kailua is sold out of water....

It amazes me this year how many islands and nations are out of fresh water. Iraq does de-sal. Why doesn't everybody? Including CentralTX, where I am, and our lakes and aquifers are dry since 2011.

Is de-sal THAT expensive, or what?
It requires quite a lot more electrical energy, I believe, than pumping the aquifer dry, and of course you have to be relatively close to salt water as pumping water long distances is also energy intensive. Island nations and coastal areas have an advantage, but not enough energy. Burn oil to get water, much?
202. xcool
no El Nino
Quoting 182. sar2401:

You can still get new property insurance in coastal Alabama...as long as you're willing to put up your first born child as collateral. :-) It seems that underwriters are even more squirrely now than right after the 2004/05 seasons. Maybe it's the idea that we haven't been hit in so long it just has to be this year. It has really put a crimp in new construction within 10 miles of the coast, and our bad tornado season of 2011 is affecting everyone else. I never thought I'd live to see the day that my homeowner's insurance would have a higher monthly cost than my mortgage payment.


Being driven by reinsurance costs and CAT models.
Oklahoma is another tough place these days!
Iselle has really let itself go today. I imagine recon will find a Category 1 or minimal Category 2 hurricane.

205. silas

Quoting Envoirment:


It's finished its eye wall replacement cycle now:



It's mixed out most of the dry air which is present on the earlier microwave pass and shouldn't have trouble mixing out the rest it now it's firing up deep convection once again. I think it'll be similar to Neoguri and restrengthen to category 3 for a brief period before weakening as it gets closer to mainland Japan.
It's very possible that that could happen. With warm waters and not too much dry air, strengthening should be able to continue for at least the near future. Though I don't like to predict storms in the western Pacific. Just when it looks like they're going to do something they often do the complete opposite =P
Q: CaneFreeCR and SAR2401, respectively:

Burn oil to get water, much?

And, 'non-starter with our current technology'..

Use solar arrays in the ocean east of islands to burn up steam to drift westwards? I'm at a loss, this is the first year I've seen 'island' and 'drought' used in the same sentence.

Quoting silas:

Well...Bertha was and is pathetic. She's the one that will cause some people to want to change the rules for classifying tropical systems...
Usually, one storm is not going to cause a rewrite of how storms are classified. The rule has always been that, if recon finds hurricane force winds is enough parts of a storm, it's a hurricane. It may be that we have a concept of how a hurricane is "supposed" to look based on decades of how they looked being the main determinant of classification. Now that we have more objective data available, it probably means that we have to get used to more misshapen ugly looking storms rather than changing how storms are classified.
Quoting 204. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Iselle has really let itself go today. I imagine recon will find a Category 1 or minimal Category 2 hurricane.


Good news for Hawaii.Next in the pipe line is Julio.Hopefully he won't pose to much of a threat and weaken before he gets there.
I see the GFS is holding on to the long term cold core low off NC. This is from the 12z, but 18z shows it too.



Canadian shows it too.

Not a single red dot anywhere in the basin...

Quoting 182. sar2401:

You can still get new property insurance in coastal Alabama...as long as you're willing to put up your first born child as collateral. :-) It seems that underwriters are even more squirrely now than right after the 2004/05 seasons. Maybe it's the idea that we haven't been hit in so long it just has to be this year. It has really put a crimp in new construction within 10 miles of the coast, and our bad tornado season of 2011 is affecting everyone else. I never thought I'd live to see the day that my homeowner's insurance would have a higher monthly cost than my mortgage payment.

Same here.
The pumping of some connection between climate change and extreme weather hasn't helped. The claim of more frequent and stronger hurricanes hasn't helped. It just gave the big insurers cover to justify higher risk premiums. Dr. Masters has from the start of this marketing campaign pointed out that there's no strong science backing this claim. Conflicting conclusions from studies done by scientists that he trusts. Hopefully the marketing will change, but the damage(higher premiums) is done.
Quoting 207. sar2401:

Usually, one storm is not going to cause a rewrite of how storms are classified. The rule has always been that, if recon finds hurricane force winds is enough parts of a storm, it's a hurricane. It may be that we have a concept of how a hurricane is "supposed" to look based on decades of how they looked being the main determinant of classification. Now that we have more objective data available, it probably means that we have to get used to more misshapen ugly looking storms rather than changing how storms are classified.


Your comment on enough hurricane force winds in enough parts of the storm is a good one. Does anyone know if there is an objective criteria NHC uses in practice for that determination? Some minimum percentage of the area within say 50 miles of the center of circulation? Suppose the same could be said for tropical storm criteria.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
An interesting, if not somewhat surprising, pattern appears to be shaping up for August. VSHD is below average in the Caribbean for the first time this season as I noted a minute ago, and the level of TCHP in the western Caribbean and GOMEX are impressive for even La Nina years, and insane for a budding El Nino year. Meanwhile, the pattern of troughing appears to be lifting out per the 500mb height forecast from the CFS and the GFS ensembles , and the CFS (not a model to be used for tropical cyclone genesis, but can show pattern shifts) is starting to portray hurricanes moving across the Atlantic. The biggest impediment right now is the lack of vertical instability in the MDR. Until that changes, all of this is just fun to look at. It's also pretty stable in the Caribbean right now, with high trade winds to boot, so that wave entering right now has very little chance to develop.







But,but,but what do we do about this?

Quoting 214. hurricane23:



But,but,but what do we do about this?




You watch that trash cold core that is supposed to develop in a week off the OBX...
As Bertha winds down to a close, I've updated my satellite montage of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season -
217. silas

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Iselle has really let itself go today. I imagine recon will find a Category 1 or minimal Category 2 hurricane.

I'd be surprised if this was more than a minimal Cat 1 atm. Look at how the eye has literally started to disintegrate over the last few frames.

Quoting 214. hurricane23:



But,but,but what do we do about this?


We'll have to let nature figure that out.
Quoting hurricane23:


But,but,but what do we do about this?



I think the phrase is, "give it a little bit of mojo."
220. 1344
Quoting 204. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Iselle has really let itself go today. I imagine recon will find a Category 1 or minimal Category 2 hurricane.




Looks better on visible and microwave.
Funny that I was joking about how much I hate lightning earlier today. It about got me this afternoon. Crazy haha

Quoting StormJunkie:


You watch that trash cold core that is supposed to develop in a week off the OBX...


100kt tc's heading "WEST" appears a thing of the past in the atlantic. Can always result to this collection i put together :0( VIEW
Quoting 204. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Iselle has really let itself go today. I imagine recon will find a Category 1 or minimal Category 2 hurricane.




Yep all that dry air is destroying iselle
Quoting 214. hurricane23:



But,but,but what do we do about this?


Call Africa, and tell them to throw a tarp over the Sahara Desert.
Quoting 216. Hurricane1216:

As Bertha winds down to a close, I've updated my satellite montage of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season -


This is awesome. Can't wait to see the end result.
Looks like things may be vary quit for the next two weeks or longer
Long flight just to get to the storm. Left from San Francisco area


Quoting 226. Tazmanian:

Looks like things may be vary quit for the next two weeks or longer

Yep, time to move onto other things in life in the meantime!
Bertha serve more Like a practice drill than a real storm during its path through the Caribbean. Bertha was just a "toy" storm. I emphasize it was just an active tropical wave when it passed near PR (IMO).
LOL! This is one large subsurface warm gathering beneath the equatorial Pacific.

232. xcool



Atlantic Shear /




ecmf 12z nice wave come off Africa at 192hrs
Quoting 224. hydrus:

Call Africa, and tell them to throw a tarp over the Sahara Desert.
actually this african dust is a blessing if it prevents hurricanes..guess anyone in one's path says the same thing..no hurricane is a good thing any time.
Good nights Bloggers: Hello
Bertha was more a practice drill than a real storm when it crossed trough the Caribbean. It was just a "toy" storm. I emphasize that Bertha was just an active tropical wave when it passed close to PR (IMO). Thereafter may be it could be a real storm (NOT a hurricane). This is only my personal opinion.
Quoting 227. nrtiwlnvragn:

Long flight just to get to the storm. Left from San Francisco area




Are the just relocating the plane> It doesn't show any current missions.
Quoting 229. opal92nwf:


Yep, time to move onto other things in life in the meantime!
The trees are telling me to look forward to winter this year :).Last year we saw our first flakes the day before November.The cold shots were impressive for so early as well.(It reached a high of only 33 last Thanksgiving.)
The big picture...

The latest GFS has a low east of the Lesser Antilles at 120 hours. It also has it tracking similar to Bertha, but crashing into the mountains of Hispaniola then dissipates.

I wonder since the atlantic hurricane seasons have slowed the past few years that the transfer of heat in the pacific is picking up its slack, because its correlates well with the pacific seasons producing off the charts while at the same time atlantic producing some numbers but hardly no majors since 2005
Quoting 175. Tropicsweatherpr:



RI going on here?


Certainly
Quoting 236. washingtonian115:

The trees are telling me to look forward to winter this year :).Last year we saw our first flakes the day before November.The cold shots were impressive for so early as well.(It reached a high of only 33 last Thanksgiving.)
Good evening Wash. Please forgive my post earlier. I misread it, and thought you said Bertha was beautiful, hence my unusual comment.
242. JLPR2
Quoting 234. juracanpr1:

Good nights Bloggers: Hello
Bertha was more a practice drill than a real storm when it crossed trough the Caribbean. It was just a "toy" storm. I emphasize that Bertha was just an active tropical wave when it passed close to PR (IMO). Thereafter may be it could be a real storm (NOT a hurricane). This is only my personal opinion.


I agree with everything except this, the HHs found winds in excess of 75mph, a dropsonde even registered 96mph at the surface, there is no doubt Bertha was a hurricane, an ugly one but a hurricane nonetheless.
Quoting 231. StormTrackerScott:

LOL! This is one large subsurface warm gathering beneath the equatorial Pacific.


That is quite large....Nino is running behind, but will still make its presence known....in about ten years....jk....really....jk..:)
Quoting 243. hydrus:

That is quite large....Nino is running behind, but will still make its presence known....in about ten years....jk....really....jk..:)
Second chance
245. Relix
Quoting 238. hydrus:

The latest GFS has a low east of the Lesser Antilles at 120 hours. It also has it tracking similar to Bertha but crashing into the mountains of Hispaniola and then dissipates.




From that wave off Africa?
Raining heavy now and currently under a yellow weather warning for rain. No thunder or lightning though. There's more wet weather to come during the week, including when Bertha hits us on Sunday. After a rather hot July (8th warmest on record I believe), August seems to have started on a more unsettled and cooler note(Which I welcome!). Bertha will also be the first autumnal storm we see. We don't normally get storms like what Bertha will be until around late August.
Looking at WV I've noticed a decrease in dry air in central Caribbean. I think we are seeing the beginning of seasonal changes in this area. The shear should also be dropping in the coming weeks.
Quoting 245. Relix:



From that wave off Africa?
No. At 120 hours the is a area about 150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 237. GeoffreyWPB:

The big picture...



That cluster near Cuba :O DOOOOM ;) :p
Quoting 242. JLPR2:



I agree with everything except this, the HHs found winds in excess of 75mph, a dropsonde even registered 96mph at the surface, there is no doubt Bertha was a hurricane, an ugly one but a hurricane nonetheless.

OK, but the dropsondes data and additional intensity data provided by the HH plane concluded that it was a modest storm even when close to PR. The sland was affected by the NE quadrant (the worst weather quadrant in terms of drain as well as wind). However, we did not observed that wind, except some at the more severe thunderstorms). I mean something was wrong with that data in terms of intensity. If I extrapolate the data to the latitude the storm had yesterday my conclusion is that yesterday Bertha was no more than a modest storm (60-70 MPH) system. Just my opinion.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 241. hydrus:

Good evening Wash. Please forgive my post earlier. I misread it, and thought you said Bertha was beautiful, hence my unusual comment.
Good evening Hydrus.I didn't take the comment personal.Bertha is gone with the wind (literally).,
Very interesting beach day in Ocean City, MD due to Bertha. Ocean came up quite far.


-Curtis Burnett


"This was from 138th Street today, the waves kept coming pushing everyone back to the dunes" -John 'Jamie' Myers
Quoting Doppler22:
Very interesting beach day in Ocean City, MD due to Bertha. Ocean came up quite far.


-Curtis Burnett


"This was from 138th Street today, the waves kept coming pushing everyone back to the dunes" -John 'Jamie' Myers



I love how the little ones are not whereing life jackets in the photo. Even at the point where they where standing a big wave can come right up. And pull them out. I would not have went them in the water with out a life jacket on for there own safety
Quoting 222. hurricane23:


100kt tc's heading "WEST" appears a thing of the past in the atlantic. Can always result to this collection i put together :0( VIEW


Great collection Adrian