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Hurricane Isaac's legacy: wetland destruction, and a test of the New Orleans levees

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:05 PM GMT on January 07, 2013

The hurricane season of 2012 will rightfully be remembered for the legacy left behind by Hurricane Sandy. But in Louisiana, the other hurricane to affect the U.S. in 2012--Hurricane Isaac--left a legacy of its own. Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. The surge levels experienced along portions of the New Orleans levee system were similar in magnitude to the surge of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry, and we can now be confident that the city will stay protected from Category 2-level storm surges. The new levee system has yet to be tested against a full Category 3-level storm surge, the maximum it is designed to handle.


Figure 1. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Environmental impacts of Isaac
One major long-term environmental impact of Isaac will be the erosion and destruction of wetlands along the Southern Louisiana coast. A 2011 study by the USGS found that four hurricanes in the past seven years--Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike--have together destroyed about 250 square miles of Louisiana marshland--an area 20% the size of Rhode Island. Researchers have yet to quantify how great Isaac's impact was on Louisiana's wetlands, but given Isaac's large size, large storm surge, and the extended battering it gave the coast, I expect 2012 will be one of the state's highest years on record for wetland loss. Over the past 25 years, Louisiana has lost an average of 17 square miles per year of wetlands, and I expect Louisiana lost 30 - 70 square miles of wetlands in 2012, primarily due to Isaac. As I explain in my detailed article on Storm Surge Reduction by Wetlands, wetlands can help significantly reduce the storm surge from a hurricane, though the degree of protection wetlands provide from storm surges is extremely complicated and is largely unknown. The general rule of thumb is that each 2.7 miles of marsh reduces the storm surge by one foot, though wetlands will provide almost no protection from a slow-moving storm like Isaac, which had enough time to completely inundate the coast, despite the presence of wetlands. Louisiana's wetlands have other huge benefits besides hurricane protection, though--they filter out nutrients that would contribute to the huge Gulf of Mexico dead zone, they support 25% of the nation's total commercial fishing haul, and provide storm protection to five of the nation's largest ports.


Figure 2. Hurricane Isaac inundated large areas of Southeastern Louisiana due to storm surge levels in excess of 10'. Image credit: USGS.

One way in which Isaac may have helped the marshlands of Louisiana and Mississippi, though, is that the storm drowned tens of thousands of Nutria, the large semi-aquatic South American rodents released in Louisiana and Mississippi in the 1930s by fur trappers looking for new stock. Nutria can severely reduce overall wetland biomass, and lead to the conversion of wetland to open water. Populations were kept in check as long as fur prices were high, but a fur price collapse in the 1980s led to a nutria population explosion into the millions. The Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries emphasizes that without effective, sustainable nutria population control, coastal wetland restoration projects will be greatly hindered. The Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan, unanimously approved by the Louisiana State Legislature in May 2012, called for 109 projects costing $50 billion over 50 years to use a combination of restoration, nonstructural, and targeted structural measures to provide increased flood protection. Louisiana needs to build a series of engineered structures called diversions along the lower Mississippi River in order to restore river sediment to Louisiana's marshlands, said a report co-authored by 22 prominent scientists and engineers in April 2012.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.Do you think Issac will be retired.I'd give it a 60% chance.
Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center



How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks Doc
The SPC has Slight Risk areas up for days two and three, but it looks like the event won't have much instability with mostly skinny and/or elevated CAPE.



Isaac was by far the LONGEST time we've spent in a Eyewall and was truly a unprecedented Storm as far as duration,.


I had approximately 20 hours of Eyewall time from Betsy in 1965, Elena 85, Katrina 05, Gustav 08..but Isaac 2012 added a full 12 hours into that tally.


A tree blown over from Hurricane Isaac lies atop a cemetery tomb in Poydras, La.


CNN: With 80 mph winds and drenching rains, Isaac pounds southeastern Louisiana
By the CNN Wire Staff
updated 11:17 PM EDT, Tue August 28, 2012
From the previous blog:

1133. DFWdad 4:10 PM GMT on January 07, 2013

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


May I comment on this? Realistically, what I see, it is that you have twice as much glass as what is necessary to contain the water. ... OK, back to your regularly scheduled program.



Nice, do I detect a mechanical engineer? I know a few...




No, I am not an engineer of any type. I am, however, mechanically inclined. You can show me any piece of machinery and I can tell you how you can break it. :-)
Thanks Dr. Masters for the blog update..
Issac was thought to not be much of an impact because of the conditions for development were perfect yet it was classed as a TS up until landfall..
Then with hours it finally exploded and those who live there in La. (and those in Carribean and Gulf coast states) can attest to it's destruction..
Thanks Dr. Masters for bringing that up in the blog today..
Thanks Dr. Masters.
From the last blog..

Quoting TomballTXPride:







Ahh, it's harmless.

It's just friendly arguing, if you can believe it.

You should see us back and forth in Ricky's Blog.

It can get pretty intense in there.

Afterall, it's the Climate Change Blog.



So a little advice: You might want to stay out of there!!!









I know what your saying Tomball..
But realistically should we turn a blind eye to the subject?
Been in there several times and have learned alot..
don't post in there however as I'm still learning on the subject and it wouldn't be productive..
By the way I see you post in there quite often..
One interesting side story on a personal level from Isaac..

The Pup's of Hurricane Issac
Posted by: Patrap, 9:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2012





Quoting Patrap:
One interesting side story on a personal level from Isaac..

The Pup's of Hurricane Issac
Posted by: Patrap, 9:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2012


Hey Pat..
have all the pups been adopted?
Quoting pcola57:


Hey Pat..
have all the pups been adopted?


All 5 have wunderful,Loving, caring Homes and are fondly missed.
BTW Have updated my blog to include the proper captions now..

2012--Year in Pictures

Trying to get better at blog postings..
If you have any suggestions or comments please leave them..
I'll do my best to answer..
Interesting post, Dr. M.
Thank you.

It's good to see that wetlands protection (for storm damage prevention, habitat maintenance, ocean quality etc etc) is being given the prominence it deserves.

It's a hard sell though, as wetlands are still mostly considered as 'waste-land' and many people still see wetlands (especially those close to developed areas) as prime property, once they have been filled in and drained.

It's a Global problem, and unfortunately it does not make the news until it's often too late.
It really is very difficult to rehabilitate damaged wetlands.

Louisiana will spend $50 billion over 50 years to try to correct the situation there. While the sea levels continue to rise.

Wetlands, generally speaking, left to themselves can by their very nature deal with sea level rise, because they tend to silt up and maintain their relative levels to the sea.

It's only when the we interfere with the natural flows of silted water through wetlands do we reap the problems we sow.

It will be very interesting to see what effect the works will have in LA and adjacent areas.
Nutria/Coypu




According to the U.S. Geological Survey nutria were first introduced the United States in California, 1899. They were first brought to Louisiana, USA in the early 1930s for the fur industry, and the population was kept in check, or at a small population size, because of trapping pressure from the fur traders.

The earliest account of nutria spreading freely into Louisiana wetlands from their enclosures was in the early 1940s; a hurricane hit the Louisiana coast that many people were unprepared for and the storm destroyed the enclosures, enabling the nutria to escape into the wild. According to the Louisiana Dept. of Wildlife and Fisheries, nutria were also transplanted from Port Arthur, TX to the Mississippi River in 1941 and then spread due to a hurricane later that year.
Great post. I'd also imagine that the longer a storm stalls out the more exposure time it has to daily/astronomical tides and the compounding effect that has on storm surge. Im curious to see what the tidal levels have been in the areas hardest hit during some of these major storms.
Pat, post 18.

Interesting on the Nutria.
I had no idea they were such a big part of the problem.
Reading the link you put up, it's a good idea to put a bounty on them ($5.00 per tail seems high, but catching them in that environment must be difficult).
Promoting them as a food source will probably not work, as people would just start breeding them in captivity, with a strong chance of entire populations escaping....

The mongoose was introduced here by the British, to deal with the snakes in agriculture.
The mongoose virtually eliminated all ground-nesting birds, and we still have snakes.
Never a good idea to interfere, as you know.
Quoting pottery:
Pat, post 18.

Interesting on the Nutria.
I had no idea they were such a big part of the problem.
Reading the link you put up, it's a good idea to put a bounty on them ($5.00 per tail seems high, but catching them in that environment must be difficult).
Promoting them as a food source will probably not work, as people would just start breeding them in captivity, with a strong chance of entire populations escaping....

The mongoose was introduced here by the British, to deal with the snakes in agriculture.
The mongoose virtually eliminated all ground-nesting birds, and we still have snakes.
Never a good idea to interfere, as you know.


A lot more on dat,here pottery,

Man vs Nutria

More here as well, Sniper style.

Jefferson Parish S.W.A.T. hunting nutria in canal.












Quoting Patrap:
Nutria/Coypu




According to the U.S. Geological Survey nutria were first introduced the United States in California, 1899. They were first brought to Louisiana, USA in the early 1930s for the fur industry, and the population was kept in check, or at a small population size, because of trapping pressure from the fur traders.

The earliest account of nutria spreading freely into Louisiana wetlands from their enclosures was in the early 1940s; a hurricane hit the Louisiana coast that many people were unprepared for and the storm destroyed the enclosures, enabling the nutria to escape into the wild. According to the Louisiana Dept. of Wildlife and Fisheries, nutria were also transplanted from Port Arthur, TX to the Mississippi River in 1941 and then spread due to a hurricane later that year.


Unfortunately, the suckers make terrible eating or they would have been hunted out. Did they stop the bounty?
Thanks Doc!

Doc, I don't know how to find the dollar cost, but I can tell you environmentally speaking, Isaac was a killer here in eastern Florida. A feeder band trained on top of Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie Counties completely overwhelming the watershed. Some 20 inches inundated Palm Beach County at Jupiter Farms flooding homes and forcing evacuations. It took several weeks before all could move back home. The Lochahatchee and Jupiter River estuaries were severely impacted for several weeks also.

In Martin and St. Lucie Counties, the watershed of the St. Lucie estuary was also overwhelmed. More than a billion gallons a day were discharging from the C-23, C-24, and C-44 canals. The overwhelmed system was unable to treat this stormwater so the estuary was polluted with high levels of phosphorus, nitrogen and fecal coliform. Bacteria levels were so high, the health department had to post no swimming or contact signs.

After a couple of weeks of this, just as the discharge levels from the St. Lucie watershed was finally abating, we got new discharges from Okeechobee Lake. Isaac had loaded the Kissimmee River watershed causing Okeechobee Lake levels to rise, putting the dike and peoples lives in jeopardy. So the solution to that, remembering that sugar cane is more important than the most diverse estuary in North America and must be protected, is to dump water through man made canals totally wrecking the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee estuaries.

Millions of dollars worth of oyster restoration, the most biologically diverse estuary and ecosystem in North America, endangered sea grasses, a Bottle Nosed Dolphin, crabs, clams, every creature dependent upon salt water that could not swim or fly away all died as a result. Our estuary is dead.. a desert. The offshore reefs were also impacted. We lost no humans, but the death toll environmentally speaking was horrific.

The last time this happened, 2004-2005, it took more than six years for the estuary to recover.
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.Do you think Issac will be retired.I'd give it a 60% chance.


I doubt it, really.
Quoting LargoFl:


Thats it baby, just a lil' more to the west.
#23 Excellent post. I couldn't have said it better myself. Having lived through the 2004-2005 mess is was distressed to see it happening again.
Isaac should not be retired.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Isaac should not be retired.


Agree.

I mean, you dont just go retiring every storm that makes landfall.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Isaac should not be retired.


I'd also like to weigh in and concur with this post.

Isaac should not be retired.



Looks like heavy chaff coming at SFL..




The anti-fur movement seemed to coincide with the wide availability of synthetic fabrics made from oil. Faux furs are another product of the oil industry. Fur was making a comeback til the recession hit in '08. A little more again the last few years..quality, durability & effectiveness against the cold being the driving factors.
Looking at visible loops, the Low is DIVING strongly into MX now, and fast moving wispy Cirrus clouds racing over southern Baja. Getting ready to ramp up.
I' be been thinking about doing a blog on the blizzard of 96 and my experience.I've also been thinking about doing a blog on how climate change has effected my local weather.



D.C is losing about a foot a year of snow.
Isaac caused Fatalities- 42 direct, 3 indirect. In damages ~$2.3 billion (2012 USD). Some of this was in the Caribbean, Hispaniola was hit really hard. With the total deaths somewhat up there & insurance claims probibly over 1 billion...I'll guess it gets retired.
Okay, stupid question, but what do these colors and gauge on the bottom of the MSL map mean?

I'd be completely cool with this.

Quoting Skyepony:
Isaac caused Fatalities- 42 direct, 3 indirect. In damages ~$2.3 billion (2012 USD). Some of this was in the Caribbean, Hispaniola was hit really hard. With the total deaths somewhat up there & insurance claims probibly over 1 billion...I'll guess it gets retired.
there will be two storms retired sandy and isaac from the 2012 list fer sure
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'd be completely cool with this.



We need that system to aim a lil more to the west.

Most of these storms have only brushed the plains at most.
Debby and Kirk Tropical Cyclone post season reports are out. Debby peak was 55kts and Kirk was 90kts. Also Carlotta,Fabio and Olivia at EPAC are out with peaks at 95kts for the first two and Olivia at 50kts.

Link

Link

Link

Link

Link
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Okay, stupid question, but what do these colors and gauge on the bottom of the MSL map mean?


That would be inches of liquid equivalent precipitation within a certain time period. I'm not familiar with this graphic, so I'm not sure the timeframe you are looking at, but these type of charts are usually precipitation within 3 or 6 hour timeframes (my guess is that this one would be six hour precip accumulation).
GFS showing huge soaker at 216 hours.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

That would be inches of liquid equivalent precipitation within a certain time period. I'm not familiar with this graphic, so I'm not sure the timeframe you are looking at, but these type of charts are usually precipitation within 3 or 6 hour timeframes (my guess is that this one would be six hour precip accumulation).


In rainfall or snowfall?
Quoting FunnelVortex:


We need that system to aim a lil more to the west.

Most of these storms have only brushed the plains at most.

We need the rain pretty badly ourselves here in Texas. Not as bad as some of those north of us and definitely not as bad as last year, but we'll take it any way we can get it!

Quoting FunnelVortex:


In rainfall or snowfall?

The physical state of the precipitation doesn't really matter with these graphics. If it falls in rain, it would be the measured amount. If it falls in snow, it would be the amount of snow that has fallen and then melted to water.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.Do you think Issac will be retired.I'd give it a 60% chance.


I strongly think Isaac and, obviously, Sandy will be retired.

Isaiah and Sabrina would be my choices for replacement names.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
GFS showing huge soaker at 216 hours.

And this should make things interesting.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I strongly think Isaac and, obviously, Sandy will be retired.

Isaiah and Sabrina would be my choices for replacement names.


Why Isaac?
Why should a $2.3 bil USD storm be retired?

Yes it caused a lot of damage, but that's expected, was it anything overly extroardinary?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I strongly think Isaac and, obviously, Sandy will be retired.

Isaiah and Sabrina would be my choices for replacement names.
I guess some people are still iffy on Issac is because it only caused 2 billion in damages.Even though the storm did cause loss of life it's not enough to get it over the hill.But as Doc and others have said Issac was a enrivonment headache.
Quoting hydrus:
And this should make things interesting.
Why?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why Isaac?
Why should a $2.3 bil USD storm be retired?

Yes it caused a lot of damage, but that's expected, was it anything overly extroardinary?
the duration of the event may be a significant reason for retirement for la that and flooding and damage issues as well as lost of life it also was a multi area affecting storm la just happen to be at the end of its line
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why Isaac?
Why should a $2.3 bil USD storm be retired?

Yes it caused a lot of damage, but that's expected, was it anything overly extroardinary?
They probably wont..They might run out of "I" names....jk....really..jk..
ECMWF not showing any major snow events in anywhere in the world within its time range.

Then again, the model run is still imcomplete.
Quoting hydrus:
They probably wont..They might run out of "I" names....jk....really..jk..


Its kinda true...
Quoting hydrus:

I'm don't think I really like that QPF forecast. I'm not really seeing that aggressive dry-slotting anywhere.
Quoting Gearsts:
Why?
A negative NAO during the winter months usually means stormy weather for the eastern half of the country...Excerpt...Westerly winds blowing across the Atlantic bring moist air into Europe. In years when westerlies are strong, summers are cool, winters are mild and rain is frequent. If westerlies are suppressed, the temperature is more extreme in summer and winter leading to heatwaves, deep freezes and reduced rainfall.

A permanent low-pressure system over Iceland (the Icelandic Low) and a permanent high-pressure system over the Azores (the Azores High) control the direction and strength of westerly winds into Europe. The relative strengths and positions of these systems vary from year to year and this variation is known as the NAO. A large difference in the pressure at the two stations (a high index year, denoted NAO+) leads to increased westerlies and, consequently, cool summers and mild and wet winters in Central Europe and its Atlantic facade. In contrast, if the index is low (NAO-), westerlies are suppressed, these areas suffer cold winters and storms track southerly toward the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

Especially during the months of November to April, the NAO is responsible for much of the variability of weather in the North Atlantic region, affecting wind speed and wind direction changes, changes in temperature and moisture distribution and the intensity, number and track of storms.

Although having a less direct influence than for Western Europe, the NAO is also believed to have an impact on the weather over much of eastern North America. During the winter, when the index is high (NAO+), the Icelandic low draws a stronger south-westerly circulation over the eastern half of the North American continent which prevents Arctic air from plunging southward. In combination with the El Niño, this effect can produce significantly warmer winters over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. Conversely, when the NAO index is low (NAO-), the eastern seaboard and southeastern United States can incur winter cold outbreaks more than the norm with associated snowstorms and sub-freezing conditions into Florida, in summer, a strong NAO- is thought to contribute to a weakened jet stream that normally pulls zonal systems into the Atlantic Basin, thus contributing to heat waves.
GFS showing an interesting 952 MB in the Atlantic with a hurricane-like wind distribution at 36 hours.

Quoting hydrus:
A negative NAO during the winter months usually means stormy weather for the eastern half of the country...Excerpt...Westerly winds blowing across the Atlantic bring moist air into Europe. In years when westerlies are strong, summers are cool, winters are mild and rain is frequent. If westerlies are suppressed, the temperature is more extreme in summer and winter leading to heatwaves, deep freezes and reduced rainfall.

A permanent low-pressure system over Iceland (the Icelandic Low) and a permanent high-pressure system over the Azores (the Azores High) control the direction and strength of westerly winds into Europe. The relative strengths and positions of these systems vary from year to year and this variation is known as the NAO. A large difference in the pressure at the two stations (a high index year, denoted NAO+) leads to increased westerlies and, consequently, cool summers and mild and wet winters in Central Europe and its Atlantic facade. In contrast, if the index is low (NAO-), westerlies are suppressed, these areas suffer cold winters and storms track southerly toward the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

Especially during the months of November to April, the NAO is responsible for much of the variability of weather in the North Atlantic region, affecting wind speed and wind direction changes, changes in temperature and moisture distribution and the intensity, number and track of storms.

Although having a less direct influence than for Western Europe, the NAO is also believed to have an impact on the weather over much of eastern North America. During the winter, when the index is high (NAO+), the Icelandic low draws a stronger south-westerly circulation over the eastern half of the North American continent which prevents Arctic air from plunging southward. In combination with the El Niño, this effect can produce significantly warmer winters over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. Conversely, when the NAO index is low (NAO-), the eastern seaboard and southeastern United States can incur winter cold outbreaks more than the norm with associated snowstorms and sub-freezing conditions into Florida, in summer, a strong NAO- is thought to contribute to a weakened jet stream that normally pulls zonal systems into the Atlantic Basin, thus contributing to heat waves.
People here were saying that the negative NAO won't matter because of the cold PDO or something like that.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I'm don't think I really like that QPF forecast. I'm not really seeing that aggressive dry-slotting anywhere.
It will get sloppy for some folks I believe.....Hopefully no dangerous flooding will occur. This GFS run shows that there will be very heavy rain events happening in the same general area for the next ten days..Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
I guess some people are still iffy on Issac is because it only caused 2 billion in damages.Even though the storm did cause loss of life it's not enough to get it over the hill.But as Doc and others have said Issac was a enrivonment headache.


That 2 billion though was in a very localized area, instead of sprawled out. It caused significant flooding all over coastal Louisiana.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I'm don't think I really like that QPF forecast. I'm not really seeing that aggressive dry-slotting anywhere.

Actually, it just looks like they haven't updated it. The 1-2 day totals show way more rain than the older 1-3 day graphic.

Quoting hydrus:


Hopefully that will make a dent in the drought areas ...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That 2 billion though was in a very localized area, instead of sprawled out. It caused significant flooding all over coastal Louisiana.




Coastal Louisiana is a swamp. Much of it is already underwater and has been that way since the Europeans settled the land hundreds of years ago. A tropical storm would flood that area.

It floods, Teddy. No reason to retire a storm, though.




Quoting 1900hurricane:

I'm don't think I really like that QPF forecast. I'm not really seeing that aggressive dry-slotting anywhere.


Check the GFS or NAM 700mb rel hum at 54-72hrs here.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
GFS showing an interesting 952 MB in the Atlantic with a hurricane-like wind distribution at 36 hours.



This was what I was discussing the other night. The chance of a shallow warm core hitting Greenland this week. CMC has it trending slightly warmer.



GFS
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why Isaac?
Why should a $2.3 bil USD storm be retired?

Yes it caused a lot of damage, but that's expected, was it anything overly extroardinary?


Enspecially since 2.3 billion USD is not that much in this economy...
Quoting pottery:
Pat, post 18.

Interesting on the Nutria.
I had no idea they were such a big part of the problem.
Reading the link you put up, it's a good idea to put a bounty on them ($5.00 per tail seems high, but catching them in that environment must be difficult).
Promoting them as a food source will probably not work, as people would just start breeding them in captivity, with a strong chance of entire populations escaping....

The mongoose was introduced here by the British, to deal with the snakes in agriculture.
The mongoose virtually eliminated all ground-nesting birds, and we still have snakes.
Never a good idea to interfere, as you know.


Here in the UK, nutrias are called 'coypus'. Captive coypus escaped and multiplied here, despite a climate that you'd think wouldn't suit them. By the early 60s, it was estimated that the feral population was around 200,000 and they were causing considerable damage to crops.

An eradication campaign was launched. The first attempt failed, but the second worked, helped by cold winters. By 1989, they were declared exterminated.

I wish they could do the same with the mink, which was introduced from North America and, predictably, escaped to become an invasive species. It has virtually eradicated the native water vole.
Quoting beell:


Check the GFS or NAM 700mb rel hum at 54-72hrs here.

Oh, there will be dry-slotting no doubt. Just not so much as to have dual-max precip accumulations on either side of it like that HPC chart I don't think.

Cool site by the way! Now a part of my bookmarks.
End of the run interesting smaller warm looking core rapped in not so warm exterior coming at the UK. It been an odd trend this year. Both this & the Greenland one should be interesting on the scatterometers.

From Planet3.0:

THE 2012 GOLDEN HORSESHOE AWARD – David Rose of the Daily Mail

Posted on January 6, 2013 by Michael Tobis



(Continuing the Tradition of the Climate BS Awards)

Following on a tradition started by Peter Gleick, this is an attempt to review the most misleading climate stories of 2012. As suggested by Eli, we will rename this from the "Bad Science” (or "BS") award to the "Golden Horseshoe Award".

Here we are following in the footsteps of Gavin Schmidt, who recalls this snippet describing a bar called the Golden Horseshoe, from a novel of that name by Dashiell Hammett:

I was reading a sign high on the wall behind the bar:

'Only genuine pre-war British and American whiskeys served here'

I was trying to count how many lies could be found in those nine words, and had reached four, with promise of more..."


Since there are several ways in which Climate BS can interfere with a sane and competent conversation, I decided to categorize the various communicationdisasters into a few categories, with the overall winner getting the Golden Horseshoe Award.

So without further ado, the envelopes please...

THE CHUTZPAH AWARD

- for the most extravagant BS

WINNER – Alec Rawls at wattsupwiththat

[...]

THE ALFRED E NEUMANN WHAT ME WORRY AWARD

- for obliviousness to defeat

WINNER – Roger Pielke Jr., for confidently and stridently estimating a relatively low impact for Hurricane Sandy just before impact, and then quietly dropping the issue.

[...]

THE RUPERT MURDOCH AWARD

for the person or institution who does the most damage overall during the year with Bad Science.

WINNER – The first winner of the Rupert Murdoch award is Rupert Murdoch

[...]

THE RED HERRING AWARD

for pointless distraction

WINNER – Shared by the whole false-skeptic crowd but let’s single out the particularly horrifying James Taylor (not the singer) of the Heartland Institute.

[...]

THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE

The most brazenly damaging and malign Bad Science of 2013

WINNER – David Rose and the Daily Mail

[...]
This morning looks like more rain to the east and a lot less over SE TX than they were showing. Guess we'll see how it turns out. Locals have come off the flooding talk compared to yesterday.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This morning looks like more rain to the east and a lot less over SE TX than they were showing. Guess we'll see how it turns out. Locals have come off the flooding talk compared to yesterday.

So how are those cow girls AtHomeTx?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So how are those cow girls AtHomeTx?.


Hey! They did better AtHome this year! Lol.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Oh, there will be dry-slotting no doubt. Just not so much as to have dual-max precip accumulations on either side of it like that HPC chart I don't think.

Cool site by the way! Now a part of my bookmarks.


Not as colorful a graphic as your ECMWF cloud heights-but good enough. And the dry slot really does not get going til Thursday, perhaps.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey! They did better AtHome this year! Lol.
Lolol.they probably couldn't handel the chill of the fans and the cold weather.
CPC has Nino 3.4 more colder on todays update than on last week's one when it was at -0.1C. Now is down to -0.3C. See the update at my ENSO blog.

Link
gfs precip loop model 12 z run

Link
Look at that gathering up in the rockies.

To those in the Great plains, I think your prayers have been answered.



...DO'H!

Hi Everyone!

Finnaly back on Weather Underground. Thanks Dr. Masters for your blog!

TTYL!

WunderGirl12
Quoting washingtonian115:
So how are those cow girls AtHomeTx?.


cruel.... :)
Wow, that's really a lot. And it's just our own galaxy! How many more WU-Blogs may exist in the whole universe, lol?

17 Billion Earth-Size Alien Planets Inhabit Milky Way
by SPACE.com Staff
Date: 07 January 2013 Time: 01:31 PM ET

The Milky Way hosts at least 17 billion Earth-size alien planets, and probably many more, a new study reveals.

Astronomers have determined that about 17 percent of stars in our galaxy harbor a roughly Earth-size exoplanet in a close orbit. Since there are 100 billion or so stars in the Milky Way, that works out to a minimum of 17 billion small, rocky alien worlds, or an Earth-size planet around one of every six stars.

And there are probably many more such planets orbiting at greater distances from their stars, some of which may even be "alien Earths" capable of supporting life as we know it.

"These kind of rocky objects are everywhere," team member Francois Fressin, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA), told reporters today (Jan. 7) during a meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Long Beach, Calif.

Source and more to read at space.com
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I strongly think Isaac and, obviously, Sandy will be retired.

Isaiah and Sabrina would be my choices for replacement names.


Isaiah is way too similar to Isaias on next year's list.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Actually, it just looks like they haven't updated it. The 1-2 day totals show way more rain than the older 1-3 day graphic.



Im wondering if there is still some residual ground moisture from the rain a few days ago and evap helping minimize some of the dry slotting. Looks to be a more warm system. If those precip totals pan out over such a short period of time there will be quite a bit of localized flooding.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 05U
3:00 AM CST January 8 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 AM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) was located near 11.8S 120.0E or 730 km north northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.3S 118.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.4S 117.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.8S 116.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 16.3S 115.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 1204 PM UTC microwave and infrared satellite image animation. Improved curvature in convective bands in western semicircle. Dvorak analysis yields 0.5 curved band, DT=2.5, MET and PAT agree. Northeast vertical wind shear may be reducing as the system becomes more organized.

The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected at the standard rate as the system moves closer to the upper ridge axis. Tropical cyclone formation is expected during Tuesday, then ongoing intensification later in the week as the tropical cyclone moves further southwest.

The tropical cyclone is forecast to move closer to the Western Australia coast later in the week under the influence of an approaching upper trough, but its longer term movement is uncertain.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (T1301)
3:00 AM JST January 8 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonamu (998 hPa) located at 6.2N 108.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 4.8N 107.6E - Tropical Depression In South China Sea
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
CPC has Nino 3.4 more colder on todays update than on last week's one when it was at -0.1C. Now is down to -0.3C. See the update at my ENSO blog.

Link


We're certainly getting a cool tongue out there now in the equatorial Pacific.

Quoting calkevin77:


Im wondering if there is still some residual ground moisture from the rain a few days ago and evap helping minimize some of the dry slotting. Looks to be a more warm system. If those precip totals pan out over such a short period of time there will be quite a bit of localized flooding.


A few of us just had a discussion at work about the upcoming rain ...and we have collectively decided we are working from home the next two days!

Good choice
Quoting txjac:


A few of us just had a discussion at work about the upcoming rain ...and we have collectively decided we are working from home the next two days!

Good choice


Good choice indeed. I may be spending a lot more time at my volunteer job than the paid office job if this takes form. It still never ceases to amaze me how many folks still don't "turn around don't drown"
Quoting Levi32:


We're certainly getting a cool tongue out there now in the equatorial Pacific.



I'm REALLY hating La Nina now. SICK of the $%#^*(% drought. -26 " for the last 18 months.
Good Afternoon..just wanted to post some pics from our National Weather Service website of the Old Wilmington Climate Books dating back to 1870..







Isaac is probably going to be retire many think it will not as Sandy produce more damage but I think it will be gone. I say replacements are going to be.Ira for Isaac and Sabrina for Sandy.
Quoting txjac:


A few of us just had a discussion at work about the upcoming rain ...and we have collectively decided we are working from home the next two days!

Good choice


I need to come work where you are. They are conveniently redoing our roof at the moment. It will be interesting to say the least lol
If Isaac is retired, retirement has become a gimmick
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Enspecially since 2.3 billion USD is not that much in this economy...
They retire lilli in 2002 and only caused 925 million dollars in damage.what do you say to that case?If lilli can Isaac can be retire too.
46 today in C IL, say near 60 by weekend. Hope the 1-2" forecast comes about, though it will be a muddy mess for a while. Would gladly take less if the 1-2 would go west & nw where they need it more and would help MS barge traffic.
Quoting Levi32:


We're certainly getting a cool tongue out there now in the equatorial Pacific.


What do you think is causing the ENSO models to perform so poorly, Levi? None of them predicted sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to get as cool as they are now, and nearly all of them predicted a weak to moderate El Nino that never really materialized.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If Isaac is retired, retirement has become a gimmick



I'd say so, too.

Hate to say this, but Pete Carroll's Seahawks are gonna go into that Georgia Dome and manhandle your Falcons just like the Packers did 2 years ago back in 2010.

But not much room to talk over here cuz Brady will pick apart our secondary next week and blow the Texans out.





... Heavy rainfall expected across west central Texas Tuesday
night...

A powerful upper level storm will move across northern Mexico
towards The Big Bend Tuesday... then across west central Texas
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the storm system approaches...
copious amounts of moisture will be pulled northwestward into the
region. The strong lift associated with the system... combined with
the moisture... will result in widespread rainfall across west
central from Tuesday through Wednesday evening with the heaviest
rainfall expected Tuesday night.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected... with
isolated higher totals of greater than 3 inches possible. This may
result in localized flooding... especially in urban and other poor
drainage areas. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also
expected... only isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are
expected in west central Texas.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What do you think is causing the ENSO models to perform so poorly, Levi? None of them predicted sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to get as cool as they are now, and nearly all of them predicted a weak to moderate El Nino that never really materialized.


More than anything the ENSO models appear to be biased towards continuity. If it's warm, they tend to stay warm or get warmer, and very often end up way too slow in transitioning to the opposite ENSO phase. The CFS is the worst at this in recent years. The ECMWF usually does the best, but can still be slow.

The bottom line is that ENSO prediction is still mediocre, and is heavily reactive, meaning that the model predictions react to the trends that are happening now, and rarely foresee those trends before they are already in motion.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If Isaac is retired, retirement has become a gimmick

Not at all. A total of 33 tropical cyclones have been retired causing less damage than Isaac did (<$2.3 billion). A low damage total does not specifically correlate to low impact.
111. txjac
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I need to come work where you are. They are conveniently redoing our roof at the moment. It will be interesting to say the least lol



LOL ...seems like my jobs owns me ...we are available 24/7/365 ...that's what happens when you have a job in support! At least I can do that from anywhere
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not at all. A total of 33 tropical cyclones have been retired causing less damage than Isaac did (<$2.3 billion). A low damage total does not specifically correlate to low impact.


When does the World Meteorological Organization generally meet to discuss retiring storm names from a previous year or is it more of an ad hoc type thing?
southern tropical atlantic running above compared to this time last year sst wise

Quoting calkevin77:


When does the World Meteorological Organization generally meet to discuss retiring storm names from a previous year or is it more of an ad hoc type thing?
i thing its in feb mid month or later but i may be incorrect
Quoting calkevin77:


When does the World Meteorological Organization generally meet to discuss retiring storm names from a previous year or is it more of an ad hoc type thing?

The WMO meets in the Spring. Typically the first or second week of April.
weatherhistorian has created a new entry.
that late i figured by earlier march but i don't follow them
ya can see the nice bombing system taking shape near greenland gonna be a big system

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Debby and Kirk Tropical Cyclone post season reports are out. Debby peak was 55kts and Kirk was 90kts. Also Carlotta,Fabio and Olivia at EPAC are out with peaks at 95kts for the first two and Olivia at 50kts.

Link

Link

Link

Link

Link


In case someone missed this post,here are a few post season reports from North Atlantic and EPAC that were released today.
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA..
CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR GLENMORA

LAC079-080549-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLML1.1.ER.130103T1530Z.130109T0600Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
949 AM CST MON JAN 7 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR GLENMORA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.0 FEET BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...WHEN THE RIVER IS RISING AND THE GAUGE
READING IS FORECAST TO REACH 12 FEET OR HIGHER. ROADS UPSTREAM FROM
GLENMORA...INCLUDING STROTHERS CROSSING ROAD NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF
CALCASIEU AND PRICE CROSSING ROAD NEAR HINESTON HAVE WATER ON THEM
AND ARE SUBJECT TO BEING CLOSED. ALSO...FLOODING OF FORESTED AREAS
NEAR THE RIVER WILL OCCUR.

&&
Good lord Largo! How do you do it? You have been on here since 4:00 a.m. I would of been out of my mind tired by now.
101 allancalderini: I say replacements are going to be Ira for Isaac and Sabrina for Sandy.

Isaac will be replaced by Issac just to PO the folks who got PO'd by all the misspellings of Isaac.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good lord Largo! How do you do it? You have been on here since 4:00 a.m. I would of been out of my mind tired by now.
LOL..this being retired is getting old real quick haha..well the dogs want out realy early in the morning so im up early..and who can sleep during the day? lol not me..so..here i am..real glad i found this blog, its alot of fun and..sometimes we even help people with the warnings.
SE TX

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The WMO meets in the Spring. Typically the first or second week of April.


Awesome. Thanks much TA.
Maybe lakes and ponds will be coming up nicely in SE TX, latest statement says widespread 2-3 inches with 5-7 inches isolated areas
Given the long duration of the rainfall street flooding will
become more common Tuesday night and worsen Wednesday morning.
Travel may be severely impacted. Mainstem river and bayou flooding
may become involved late Tuesday night and Wednesday with the
large areal extent of the rainfall and the high potential for
the ground to quickly saturate and rain to runoff.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya can see the nice bombing system taking shape near greenland gonna be a big system



It already is ..
Quoting RitaEvac:
Given the long duration of the rainfall street flooding will
become more common Tuesday night and worsen Wednesday morning.
Travel may be severely impacted. Mainstem river and bayou flooding
may become involved late Tuesday night and Wednesday with the
large areal extent of the rainfall and the high potential for
the ground to quickly saturate and rain to runoff.



I am excited!
When the Doc writes a random article about a storm last season and all the bloggers argue over its retirement...that's when you know all is quiet.

Quite honestly it's good to see. Everyone needs the respite.
Quoting whitewabit:


It already is ..
gonna make for a nice warmup over our region of NA pulling all warm air ne ward temps may break 50f by friday over eastern grt lakes maybe even warmer over yer way nice jan thaw shaping up seems
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gonna make for a nice warmup over our region of NA pulling all warm air ne ward temps may break 50f by friday over eastern grt lakes maybe even warmer over yer way nice jan thaw shaping up seems


Keep .. forecast for Saturday is calling for a high of 60 degrees here in central Illinois ..


full disk image northern hemisphere
Back now after a visit to the vet..
Won't go into it here..Lol..


Hey..Did anyone else notice the new Homepage Format..??
Now with a Local Area Temp/Conditions.Image and really cool is the new Area For Current/Important News..
Works very well..
WU always confirms that I made a good choice to join..
It just keeps getting better and better.. :)
Me likey!!


NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day

AE Aurigae and the Flaming Star Nebula
Image Credit & Copyright: Martin Pugh

Explanation: AE Aurigae is called the flaming star. The surrounding nebula IC 405 is named the Flaming Star Nebula and the region seems to harbor smoke, but there is no fire. Fire, typically defined as the rapid molecular acquisition of oxygen, happens only when sufficient oxygen is present and is not important in such high-energy, low-oxygen environments. The material that appears as smoke is mostly interstellar hydrogen, but does contain smoke-like dark filaments of carbon-rich dust grains. The bright star AE Aurigae, visible near the nebula center, is so hot it is blue, emitting light so energetic it knocks electrons away from atoms in the surrounding gas. When an atom recaptures an electron, light is emitted creating the surrounding emission nebula. In this cosmic portrait, the Flaming Star nebula lies about 1,500 light years distant, spans about 5 light years, and is visible with a small telescope toward the constellation of the Charioteer (Auriga)
139. txjac
Quoting pcola57:
Back now after a visit to the vet..
Won't go into it here..Lol..


Hey..Did anyone else notice the new Homepage Format..??
Now with a Local Area Temp/Conditions.Image and really cool is the new Area For Current/Important News..
Works very well..
WU always confirms that I made a good choice to join..
It just keeps getting better and better.. :)
Me likey!!


I gotta admit I like it too! However I hardly ever go to the home page ...I have my link set up to take me straight to here
Quoting txjac:


I gotta admit I like it too! However I hardly ever go to the home page ...I have my link set up to take me straight to here


I used to have my book mark set for here when I first joined,and then on a slow blog day,I checked out the homepage and noticed all that I was missing..
So now I hit the homepage first..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


cruel.... :)
There is Nothing Wrong with Cowboys Cheerleaders, LOL, Long time Cowboy fan here so we are use to all the Jokes.
I'm inside today as the area is expecting catastrophic fire conditions. Pets are inside just in case. The computers have their sides off so I can take the multiple hard drives out if required ( my partner is a software developer so there is a stack of them to take ) and I've got my box of valuables ready.

Just going to hang online and do a bit of washing - I think it will dry really quickly today hahaha oh dear. I live across the road from a small nature reserve in the national park so even though there are houses around, it's still 'bush'.

Wish me luck!

Quoting Levi32:


More than anything the ENSO models appear to be biased towards continuity. If it's warm, they tend to stay warm or get warmer, and very often end up way too slow in transitioning to the opposite ENSO phase. The CFS is the worst at this in recent years. The ECMWF usually does the best, but can still be slow.

The bottom line is that ENSO prediction is still mediocre, and is heavily reactive, meaning that the model predictions react to the trends that are happening now, and rarely foresee those trends before they are already in motion.


From Mid May(2012)

Mid December (2012)


Poor performed by the Dynamical Models!!!! Statistical models are doing good job by the way.
Good afternoon/evening everyone. Invest 98S is now 08S:



It could threaten west Australia in a few days, it is likely to strengthen according to the models.
Quoting ktymisty:
I'm inside today as the area is expecting catastrophic fire conditions. Pets are inside just in case. The computers have their sides off so I can take the multiple hard drives out if required ( my partner is a software developer so there is a stack of them to take ) and I've got my box of valuables ready.

Just going to hang online and do a bit of washing - I think it will dry really quickly today hahaha oh dear. I live across the road from a small nature reserve in the national park so even though there are houses around, it's still 'bush'.

Wish me luck!



Good luck ktymisty..
Lots of folks are very concerned about everyone there..

Keep us informed if you can..TIA
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST January 8 2013
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.0N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest slowly.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (T1301)
6:00 AM JST January 8 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonamu (998 hPa) located at 6.1N 108.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 4.4N 107.8E - Tropical Depression In South China Sea
1105 AussieStorm: ...realisticly, is this glass half empty or half full?
9 Some1Has2BtheRookie: May I comment on this? Realistically, what I see is that you have twice as much glass as what is necessary to contain the water.

Forgot to figure in the storm surge.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon/evening everyone. Invest 98S is now 08S:



It could threaten west Australia in a few days, it is likely to strengthen according to the models.


Bureau of Meteorology has it becoming 95 knots (110 knots) in 72 hours.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Bureau of Meteorology has it becoming 95 knots (110 knots) in 72 hours.

JTWC has 115 kts in 72 hours with a peak of 125 kts in 96 hours.



CMC model for 05U (08S)

125 knots from JTWC. Looks like a possible Australian Category 5 cyclone then. (on their scale of course)
South Fla. temps running about 10-15° above normal...

The radar is quiet, but that won't last for too much longer...

Flood watches to my west...


Statement as of 3:23 PM CST on January 07, 2013

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Texas... including
the following counties... Austin... Brazoria... Brazos...
Burleson... Chambers... Colorado... Fort Bend... Galveston...
Grimes... Harris... Houston... Jackson... Liberty... Madison...
Matagorda... Montgomery... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity...
Walker... Waller... Washington and Wharton.

* From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening

* rain is expected to start early Tuesday near the coast and then
expand northward. A warm front will move into the coastal region
late Tuesday and will help to focus showers and thunderstorms
over the western areas. Rainfall will continue to increase in
coverage and intensity throughout the night. Widespread rainfall
over southeast Texas will average 2 to 3 inches with some areas
receiving 5 to 7 inch amounts.

* Given the long duration of the rainfall street flooding will
become more common Tuesday night and worsen Wednesday morning.
Travel may be severely impacted. Mainstem river and bayou flooding
may become involved late Tuesday night and Wednesday with the
large areal extent of the rainfall and the high potential for
the ground to quickly saturate and rain to runoff.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

If possible avoid travel Tuesday night and Wednesday and expect
delays if travel cannot be put off to a later time.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
as flash flood warnings are issued.


Through one week, we have yet to record a single severe weather report in the US this year. That will likely change tomorrow, or if not tomorrow then Wednesday. Doesn't look like a major event but some damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are likely in southern TX and the western Gulf Coast in the next couple days.



Looks like ours will be coming tomorrow...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL SFC HIGH RETREATING EASTWARD
...WITH ENE TO E FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VIS SAT IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION AVERAGING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER BAJA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS N MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TUE AND MOVE NE
ACROSS TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND MOVE NNE ACROSS E TX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS...COUPLED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT...WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA OVER SE
TX/LA BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU. AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION
WILL BE CLOSE TO 4 INCHES OVER SE TX/W LA...AND 3-4 INCHES OVER C
AND SC LA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. AS MOST
OF HEAVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY WED THROUGH EARLY THU...A FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT LIKELY ISSUED BY THE
MORNING FORECAST RUN IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.

ALSO...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS ACROSS E TX WED...OUR REGION WILL BE
WITHIN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR WX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISO TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY. THUS SPC HAS OUTLINED AREA IN SLIGHT
RISK.
Quoting Patrap:
Isaac was by far the LONGEST time we've spent in a Eyewall and was truly a unprecedented Storm as far as duration,.


I had approximately 20 hours of Eyewall time from Betsy in 1965, Elena 85, Katrina 05, Gustav 08..but Isaac 2012 added a full 12 hours into that tally.


A tree blown over from Hurricane Isaac lies atop a cemetery tomb in Poydras, La.


CNN: With 80 mph winds and drenching rains, Isaac pounds southeastern Louisiana
By the CNN Wire Staff
updated 11:17 PM EDT, Tue August 28, 2012
Getting through Sandy was like that for me... 48 hours of TS force winds is a pretty long time. And of course we were outside the hurricane force wind zone here in western New Providence. Imagine sitting through 48 hours with 24 hours of hurricane force winds embedded...

We sure had some whoppers of storm systems this year, even the ones that weren't so powerful wind-wise.
Thanks Dr.Masters,
What are the chances of the southeast getting some snow?
Like GA, SC area.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
____________________________

Tropical cyclone 08s forms south of Indonesia
Could be a threat for Western Australia

Info gathered from... JTWC and from AU Bureau of Meteorology



click pic for larger view...

________________
This is part of my 2013 Hurricane season (even of it's outside NHC areas). The first one to track...
Quoting Newswatcher:
Thanks Dr.Masters,
What are the chances of the southeast getting some snow?
Like GA, SC area.

0.01%.
My Admiral Fitzroy Storm Glass predicted rain today...and it was right!

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
South Fla. temps running about 10-15%uFFFD above normal...



Didn't think it was possible, but so far this winter has been warmer than last year. These first few weeks of January are usually the coldest, now I'd be shocked if we get below 40 anytime soon. I have jackets in my closet I have never worn since I received them in '10, because it's been too hot to wear them in the winter.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Flood watches to my west...


Statement as of 3:23 PM CST on January 07, 2013

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Texas... including
the following counties... Austin... Brazoria... Brazos...
Burleson... Chambers... Colorado... Fort Bend... Galveston...
Grimes... Harris... Houston... Jackson... Liberty... Madison...
Matagorda... Montgomery... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity...
Walker... Waller... Washington and Wharton.

* From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening

* rain is expected to start early Tuesday near the coast and then
expand northward. A warm front will move into the coastal region
late Tuesday and will help to focus showers and thunderstorms
over the western areas. Rainfall will continue to increase in
coverage and intensity throughout the night. Widespread rainfall
over southeast Texas will average 2 to 3 inches with some areas
receiving 5 to 7 inch amounts.

* Given the long duration of the rainfall street flooding will
become more common Tuesday night and worsen Wednesday morning.
Travel may be severely impacted. Mainstem river and bayou flooding
may become involved late Tuesday night and Wednesday with the
large areal extent of the rainfall and the high potential for
the ground to quickly saturate and rain to runoff.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

If possible avoid travel Tuesday night and Wednesday and expect
delays if travel cannot be put off to a later time.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
as flash flood warnings are issued.




Lots and lots of water: Link
166. wxmod
These are readings today from the US embassy in Beijing. These are about five times worse particulate readings than being in the middle of a major forest fire. On top of that, there are poisonous gasses and heavy metals. HEPA filters do not remove PM 2.5 particles. Those are so small, they go straight into the bloodstream through the lungs and skin.
There is a large cloud of polluted Chinese air off the coast of California today.


BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-08-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 257.0; 307; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-08-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 365.0; 411; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-08-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 402.0; 435; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


01-08-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 326.0; 376; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


5h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-08-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 390.0; 427; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


6h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-08-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 357.0; 405; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Didn't think it was possible, but so far this winter has been warmer than last year. These first few weeks of January are usually the warmest, now I'd be shocked if we get below 40 anytime soon. I have jackets in my closet I have never worn since I received them in '10, because it's been too hot to wear them in the winter.


Not here in Santa Fe. Expecting temps near -10 F next week. Northern NM has had temps 10-15 degrees below normal and more expected.
anybody got an inauguration weekend forecast for the east coast?
Noting :-
166. wxmod
This visible pollution is just so out of hand now.
We were talking about it last night and I took some photos today of the valley outside my village, I uploaded 7 of them. The smoke in the house was so bad I had to keep the windows closed.
All though some body pointed out that the CO2 came from the air and goes back into it. The fact is it came out of the air very slowly and is going back into the air very quickly!
The main concern is that the CO2 is a colourless odourless gas, the other stuff that's making everybody cough is neither and there's plenty of that in the air all winter with these fires going on.
The cloud up here in the mountains near Sydney is keeping the temperature down. It's 11.30am and 35C/95F. Not too bad yet. I've been washing blankets - perfect day to do it.

I don't have an air conditioner either - it broke last year and I've been too sick to save much money to get it replaced.

The cat was desperate to get outside, he's lying on the back porch instead of being on the cool tiles inside....grrrr
Kulluk refloated

Just found out this happened!!!
I thought you floridians loved the warmth.I'm confused.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Kulluk refloated

Just found out this happened!!!


The Kulluck is already in a harbor just Just ousside of Kodiak ..
Quoting whitewabit:


The Kulluck is already in a harbor just Just ousside of Kodiak ..


Right, I just saw that. Was surprised no one said anything here.
The ABC News website has an updating tracker for the NSW temperatures today. The link is here if you wanted to follow it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I thought you floridians loved the warmth.I'm confused.


This Floridian DEFINITELY DOES, Wash.... No freezes for the entire year would be dandy with me, my palms and my orchids!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

0.01%.



Is there even a chance of SC/GA getting ANY snow this winter?
Quoting OrchidGrower:


This Floridian DEFINITELY DOES, Wash.... No freezes for the entire year would be dandy with me, my palms and my orchids!
It would certainly be nice for people who are gardening and growing crops.I know people around here that take off to Florida during the winter months to enjoy the sunshine and nice temps.
Quoting Newswatcher:



Is there even a chance of SC/GA getting ANY snow this winter?

Probably not, lol.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Lots and lots of water: Link


Oh wow. Hadn't seen that. You're right shows lots of water that doesn't completely move out of Texas until Friday.
181. wxmod
Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting :-
166. wxmod
This visible pollution is just so out of hand now.
We were talking about it last night and I took some photos today of the valley outside my village, I uploaded 7 of them. The smoke in the house was so bad I had to keep the windows closed.
All though some body pointed out that the CO2 came from the air and goes back into it. The fact is it came out of the air very slowly and is going back into the air very quickly!
The main concern is that the CO2 is a colourless odourless gas, the other stuff that's making everybody cough is neither and there's plenty of that in the air all winter with these fires going on.


Plaza. I sympathize with your situation. Here's a MODIS satellite photo of Spain today. If this were a photo of China, you would not be able to see the ground, anywhere!
http://spaceweather.com/images2013/07jan13/hmi4096_ blank.jpg


The sun is looking rather active right now!!! Don`t you think so?

Quoting ktymisty:
The cloud up here in the mountains near Sydney is keeping the temperature down. It's 11.30am and 35C/95F. Not too bad yet. I've been washing blankets - perfect day to do it.

I don't have an air conditioner either - it broke last year and I've been too sick to save much money to get it replaced.

The cat was desperate to get outside, he's lying on the back porch instead of being on the cool tiles inside....grrrr


Oh my. You have my sympathy. I couldn't live without my air conditioner. I hope you get a break from the heat soon and that you get to feeling better.
Quoting ktymisty:
The cloud up here in the mountains near Sydney is keeping the temperature down. It's 11.30am and 35C/95F. Not too bad yet. I've been washing blankets - perfect day to do it.

I don't have an air conditioner either - it broke last year and I've been too sick to save much money to get it replaced.

The cat was desperate to get outside, he's lying on the back porch instead of being on the cool tiles inside....grrrr


This is my local WX station.


It's 36.9C(36.9F) here in the heart of Sydney suburbs. Just watched Channel 9 morning news, there is a fire near my parents place at Yarrabin. The reporter said the wind was blowing at 50km/h(31mph) and is expected to reach 70km/h(43.5mph).

Fortunately in Tasmania no one has been killed so far, police are sifting through the remains of houses looking for remains and fortunately they have not found any.

I fortunately have a portable air conditioner which is helping the kids stay cool.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh my. You have my sympathy. I couldn't live without my air conditioner. I hope you get a break from the heat soon and that you get to feeling better.
Reminds me after Hurricane Charley with no electric. Near record highs with 65% humidity for 17 days...miserable.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh my. You have my sympathy. I couldn't live without my air conditioner. I hope you get a break from the heat soon and that you get to feeling better.


Thanks :)

I got the cat back inside.

It's now 100F and 12pm. Still a few hours before peak temp ( around 3pm usually )
Major Fire Updates

Emergency Warning Warrigal Range Rd - Brogo (Bega Valley) 08/01/13 11:26
Posted: 08/01/2013
An out of control bush fire is currently burning on the Warrigal Range Road at Brogo.


Current information

The fire is expected to impact on homes east of Warrigal Range Road or west of Eagles Nest Road by approximately 12.45pm.

People in the area are able to leave now if the path is clear and relocate to Bega township.

...............................................

Emergency Warning - Yarrabin Fire (Cooma-Monaro LGA) 08/01/13 11:24
Posted: 08/01/2013
An Emergency Warning has been issued for an out of control bush fire burning in the Numeralla area.


Current Information

The bush fire is burning near the Mount Forest Road, Carlaminda area and is currently impacting on properties.

The fire is burning in a south easterly direction and has crossed over the Numeralla River. It is travelling towards the Kybean Valley.

People in the Kybean Valley area should seek shelter if the fire impacts. Leave only if it is safe to do so.

Police are doorknocking homes in the area to advise them of the risk.

People in the Dangelong, Numeralla and Countegany areas sould expect to be affected by smoke and embers. People in this area should stay aware of the fire activity.

Two Emergency Alert Telephone Warning messages have been sent to residents in the Mount Forest Road and Kybean Valley areas.
Quoting ktymisty:


Thanks :)

I got the cat back inside.

It's now 100F and 12pm. Still a few hours before peak temp ( around 3pm usually )
Where are you?.Are you located in Australia where the heat wave is going on?.
189. wxmod
This is a MODIS satellite photo of China today. China's air is five times more polluted than a major-rager forest fire burning a half million acres of brush. And it's constant, relentless.

Quoting hydrus:
Reminds me after Hurricane Charley with no electric. Near record highs with 65% humidity for 17 days...miserable.


Yuck! I bet was awful! The heat wasn't so bad after Ike thankfully. But it was terrible after Rita. It apparently was the main reason there were buses leaving every hour for days shuttling those who didn't evacuate to San Antonio. I had already left before the storm.
Quoting OrchidGrower:


This Floridian DEFINITELY DOES, Wash.... No freezes for the entire year would be dandy with me, my palms and my orchids!


When I live in Florida, I refuse to leave the house if the temperature goes below 70.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where are you?.Are you located in Australia where the heat wave is going on?.

ktymisty lives in the Blue Mountains which are west of Sydney. I don't envy you living there ktymisty. I bet your surrounded by bush, that is probably primed to explode if a fire comes through. I wish you well.
Quoting AussieStorm:


This is my local WX station.


It's 36.9C(36.9F) here in the heart of Sydney suburbs. Just watched Channel 9 morning news, there is a fire near my parents place at Yarrabin. The reporter said the wind was blowing at 50km/h(31mph) and is expected to reach 70km/h(43.5mph).

Fortunately in Tasmania no one has been killed so far, police are sifting through the remains of houses looking for remains and fortunately they have not found any.

I fortunately have a portable air conditioner which is helping the kids stay cool.


Hope your parents remain safe Aussie.
My Nokia weather app on my mobile phone is telling me on Friday it's going to be 35C(95F) and on Saturday it's going to be 45C(113F). I don't know where they get there data from, but I hope it's wrong.
I'm rooting for the Texans next week!! I HATE the patriots and hate is a strong word.

GO ALABAMA GO SEC!
they beat my bulldogs but they need to win to keep the SEC streak going.

On the otherhand, Isaac caused neither considerable loss of life, extroardinariny and unusual damage, nor extreme strength or other characteristics. It did have much effect and inundated many areas of coastal louisiana, but as a whole ,the system is not one worthy of retirement. Severe damage can be expected from any strong hurricane and that should be remembered as we consider it's retirement.
Quoting Newswatcher:
http://spaceweather.com/images2013/07jan13/hmi409 6_ blank.jpg


The sun is looking rather active right now!!! Don`t you think so?




Were you trying to get this:

Link
197. wxmod
Quoting AussieStorm:
Major Fire Updates

Emergency Warning Warrigal Range Rd - Brogo (Bega Valley) 08/01/13 11:26
Posted: 08/01/2013
An out of control bush fire is currently burning on the Warrigal Range Road at Brogo.


Current information

The fire is expected to impact on homes east of Warrigal Range Road or west of Eagles Nest Road by approximately 12.45pm.

People in the area are able to leave now if the path is clear and relocate to Bega township.

...............................................

Emergency Warning - Yarrabin Fire (Cooma-Monaro LGA) 08/01/13 11:24
Posted: 08/01/2013
An Emergency Warning has been issued for an out of control bush fire burning in the Numeralla area.


Current Information

The bush fire is burning near the Mount Forest Road, Carlaminda area and is currently impacting on properties.

The fire is burning in a south easterly direction and has crossed over the Numeralla River. It is travelling towards the Kybean Valley.

People in the Kybean Valley area should seek shelter if the fire impacts. Leave only if it is safe to do so.

Police are doorknocking homes in the area to advise them of the risk.

People in the Dangelong, Numeralla and Countegany areas sould expect to be affected by smoke and embers. People in this area should stay aware of the fire activity.

Two Emergency Alert Telephone Warning messages have been sent to residents in the Mount Forest Road and Kybean Valley areas.


So, Aussie,
Here's a satellite photo taken today of the major, major fires in Australia. Compare them with my earlier MODIS satellite image of China.
Quoting AussieStorm:

ktymisty lives in the Blue Mountains which are west of Sydney. I don't envy you living there ktymisty. I bet your surrounded by bush, that is probably primed to explode if a fire comes through. I wish you well.
All that dry brush and dry shrubs is just waiting to be ignited by the fire.I saw a video about 2 months ago showing how fast they can move.Especially in high wind.A scary video indeed.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hope your parents remain safe Aussie.

The news said the fire is burning in a SE'erly direction. Which mean's it's going away from them.


The blue dot is where my parents live.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I'm rooting for the Texans next week!! I HATE the patriots and hate is a strong word.

GO ALABAMA GO SEC!
they beat my bulldogs but they need to win to keep the SEC streak going.

On the otherhand, Isaac caused neither considerable loss of life, extroardinariny and unusual damage, nor extreme strength or other characteristics. It did have much effect and inundated many areas of coastal louisiana, but as a whole ,the system is not one worthy of retirement. Severe damage can be expected from any strong hurricane and that should be remembered as we consider it's retirement.





Hate to say this, but Pete Carroll's Seahawks are gonna march into that Georgia Dome and manhandle your Falcons just like the Packers did 2 years ago back in 2010.

But not much room to talk over here cuz Brady will pick apart our secondary next week and blow the Texans out.

But I'm with ya. Sick of Belachick and the Pats.

And yes, Go Alabama.




BTW what is January equivalent to down there?.July?
Quoting AussieStorm:

ktymisty lives in the Blue Mountains which are west of Sydney. I don't envy you living there ktymisty. I bet your surrounded by bush, that is probably primed to explode if a fire comes through. I wish you well.


Thanks Aussie. Yes, I live on one of the ridge lines with bush on one side and houses on the other. All good so far :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
All that dry brush and dry shrubs is just waiting to be ignited by the fire.I saw a video about 2 months ago showing how fast they can move.Especially in high wind.A scary video indeed.

About 20yrs ago I was helping do a burn-out of a big area of bush on a friends property, the area was about 2kmsq. all 4 sides was just dusty dirt. We lit the fire and watched and even though there was a slight breeze the fire just took off since the humidity was very low. We watched a 100ft eucalyptus tree just explode into flames when the fire was about 2ft high around it's base. The eucalyptus oil is very flammable. It was a sight to see and showed how quickly and why these bushfires go out of control so very quickly.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The news said the fire is burning in a SE'erly direction. Which mean's it's going away from them.


The blue dot is where my parents live.


Ah ok. That is good. Hopefully they'll get the fire contained.
Sure seems like it's been busy down under so far this season... things usually don't start to pick up until next week, and there have already been, what 5 systems in that area?
Quoting washingtonian115:
BTW what is January equivalent to down there?.July?

Yeah, I would say July.
December, January and February is our summer down here.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sure seems like it's been busy down under so far this season... things usually don't start to pick up until next week, and there have already been, what 5 systems in that area?


Well, last 2 years it's been La Nina season. This is a neutral season. But the ITCZ is still relative high. Darwin is still waiting for the monsoon season to start, Normally it's around Christmas it starts, but not this year.



TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Tuesday 8 January 2013
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Low was located at 8 am WST near 12.0S 119.3E, that is 730 km north
northwest of Broome and moving west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is located south of the Lesser Sunda Islands and is expected
to develop further as it moves in a generally southwest direction, reaching
cyclone intensity later today or early tomorrow, well north of the Australian
mainland. On Thursday the system may take a more south southwest track and
approach the west Pilbara coast.

The developing tropical cyclone is not expected to affect the WA coast in the
next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm WST.
Quoting AussieStorm:

About 20yrs ago I was helping do a burn-out of a big area of bush on a friends property, the area was about 2kmsq. all 4 sides was just dusty dirt. We lit the fire and watched and even though there was a slight breeze the fire just took off since the humidity was very low. We watched a 100ft eucalyptus tree just explode into flames when the fire was about 2ft high around it's base. The eucalyptus oil is very flammable. It was a sight to see and showed how quickly and why these bushfires go out of control so very quickly.
Aussie I'm not to sure but in California they have strict rules for people that have brush around their house.If they don't cut it in a certain amount of time the city will and you will get billed for it.

Quoting TomballTXPride:




Hate to say this, but Pete Carroll's Seahawks are gonna go into that Georgia Dome and manhandle your Falcons just like the Packers did 2 years ago back in 2010.

But not much room to talk over here cuz Brady will pick apart our secondary next week and blow the Texans out.

But I'm with ya. Sick of Belachick and the Pats.

Go Alabama.






Root for my team! I'm rooting for yours!

TD Alabama already lol. ND cant weather this storm
James spann was right
Ensembles from the global models are in pretty good agreement on a return to cooler weather in the East in about 10 days from now (around the 17th or 18th). Ensembles from the CMC and ECMWF, however, are suggesting a return to ridging around the SE and off the East coast around 16 days from now (the 23rd). It's a long ways out so confidence is not high with this, but it will be interesting to watch if GFS Ensembles catch on to this idea, or if CMC and ECMWF ensembles bail on the idea and keep the trough in the East. Right now I'm kind of leaning toward the CMC and ECMWF idea of a possible return to warmth by the middle of the fourth week of January, but it's still way too far out to say for sure what the outcome will be.

12z CMC Ensembles Day 16

Quoting washingtonian115:
Aussie I'm not to sure but in California they have strict rules for people that have brush around their house.If they don't cut it in a certain amount of time the city will and you will get billed for it.


Here it's up to the owners. If they don't cut it back or clear around there property, they risk there house going up in flames if a bushfire threatens there area.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Ensembles from the global models are in pretty good agreement on a return to cooler weather in the East in about 10 days from now (around the 17th or 18th). Ensembles from the CMC and ECMWF, however, are suggesting a return to ridging around the SE and off the East coast around 16 days from now (the 23rd). It's a long ways out so confidence is not high with this, but it will be interesting to watch if GFS Ensembles catch on to this idea, or if CMC and ECMWF ensembles bail on the idea and keep the trough in the East. Right now I'd lean toward the CMC and ECMWF idea toward a possible return to warmth by the middle of the fourth week of January, but it's still too far out to say.

12z CMC Ensembles Day 16

Sounds disgusting.I'm taking it this January will be spring like -_-.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here it's up to the owners. If they don't cut it back or clear around there property, they risk there house going up in flames if a bushfire threatens there area.


Very true.
We have a good local council up here. The valley across the road was too full of fuel to burn off this winter ( yeah, scary ). They spent about three weeks down there clearing up and getting rid of litter. The local fire brigade also put a couple more portable units in the area, one a few houses up. Makes me feel quite safe, especially since I'm home alone most days.

Anyone following the Twitter info that's coming out of the American Meteorological Society annual meeting?
Quoting ktymisty:


Very true.
We have a good local council up here. The valley across the road was too full of fuel to burn off this winter ( yeah, scary ). They spent about three weeks down there clearing up and getting rid of litter. The local fire brigade also put a couple more portable units in the area, one a few houses up. Makes me feel quite safe, especially since I'm home alone most days.


If you need any help, let me know and I'll come right up. I'm about an hour away.
Thanks Dr. Masters.

A big change is coming as highs should get near 50F in SE MI. TWC has me hitting 60F on Saturday, but that is probably a little too high and the NWS has 49F. Rainfall combined with snow melt will raise river/stream levels in my area. It is a good thing that areas that really need the rain will be getting some decent amounts this week.

Am I the only one who didn't know this storm existed?

1893 NY Hurricane:
I just stuck my head out my back door. OH MY GOSH it's so HOT!!!!!!!!!!

81°F inside 102.9°F outside.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I just stuck my head out my back door. OH MY GOSH it's so HOT!!!!!!!!!!

81°F inside 102.9°F outside.


I feel for you buddy. That is awful.
Photo just in from the Rural Fire Service of the fire near Yarrabin, which is 12km East of Cooma, where my parents live.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I feel for you buddy. That is awful.

Thanks
We haven't hit our top temp yet. I just put my hand held wx station under the outdoor table. I'll check it in about 10min, i put it out about 20mins ago.
cold night here.
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you need any help, let me know and I'll come right up. I'm about an hour away.


Thanks Aussie, will do!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
cold night here.

I feel for you buddy. LOL
Give me hot weather over cold weather anytime.
Two separate, fast-moving fires are threatening properties in the state's south.
Predictions the state would experience the worst bushfire conditions ever are proving correct.
Wind gusts are hitting 70kph and the temperatures are in the high 30s.
In the Bega Valley, an out-of-control grassfire is threatening homes near Warrigal Range Rd at Brogo.
Near Cooma, a fast-moving fire is expected to hit the Kybean Valley within the next three hours.
Residents in the Numeralla and Carlaminda areas have been told it is too late to leave.
'Watch and act' alerts are in place for fires at Deniliquin, Bland, Harden and Wagga Wagga.
More than 100 fires are burning across the state.





SYDNEY'S temperature has hit 40C, as the state battles heatwave conditions.

Official records at the Bureau of Meteorology headquarters had the mercury at 40.4C at 1.05pm today.

Sydney Airport is also above 40C now, up at 40.8C.

Winds are expected to pick up from the west to 40km/h, increasing the temperature by a few more degrees by 4pm.

Penrith became the first Sydney suburb to hit 40C at 12.30pm this afternoon.

Sydney CBD is close to hitting 40C as well, with temperatures at 12.30pm recorded at 38C at Observatory Hill.

Richmond, Bankstown and Sydney Olympic Park were at 38.7C at the same time this afternoon.

Experts are predicting the temperatures to rise even higher over the next three hours.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:
I just stuck my head out my back door. OH MY GOSH it's so HOT!!!!!!!!!!

81°F inside 102.9°F outside.


Wow! I think 82 is awful!
Quoting Xandra:
DUNALLEY FAMILY SHARES AMAZING STORY OF SURVIVING TASMANIA'S BUSHFIRE.



Fascinating story! Thanks for the post.
Quoting Bielle:


Wow! I think 82 is awful!

not as bad as 105.4F


Larger image.
The American Meteorological Society 2013 meeting is trending on Twitter.

Norcross: In all my career, I've never seen a situation like when Mayor Bloomberg spoke that Saturday. #Sandy #ams2013

Norcross: I've never felt the sinking feeling than I did when I heard Major Bloomberg speak. He's the trusted voice in NYC. #AMS2013

Norcross: We manually overrode the computer, called #Sandy a "Superstorm" rather than "Post-Tropical Cyclone" #ams2013

Knabb: We were afraid our warning systems would "break" if we issued Hurr warnings for #Sandy" #ams2013

Shapiro: Subtropical wave says "Gotcha you can't escape." Sandy says "I can push back" Polar jet says, "I can sneak around you!" #AMS2013

and on and on..
000
FXUS64 KHGX 080250
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRAPHICASTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S MM BRIEFING OUT ON OUR
WEB PAGE COMMUNICATING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT(S). THIS EVENING`S LOWERING PRESSURES OVER CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO IS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE COUPLE OF
MID-WEEK DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS VERY ADVERTISED EVENT
IS STILL FORECAST TO COME TO FRUITION BEGINNING TOMORROW AS A WARM
FRONT SLIDES UP FROM THE COASTAL BEND. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIR
MASS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THAT...IN TANDEM WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE THE
(THERMO)DYNAMICS FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE WIND/TORNADO SITUATION.
THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GOOD TURNING (BACKING) OF THE
LOWER 3KM WINDS LEADING TO HIGHER HELICITIES ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOMORROW. THIS INDICATES A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
STRONG CELLS DISPLAYING ROTATING UPDRAFT STRUCTURE...COULD LEAD
TO SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH A ISOLATED TORNADO MENTION. THE MAIN
THREAT STILL REMAINS HIGH RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING. THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS WE
FALL WITHIN THE 24 HOUR WINDOW OF THIS THREAT. TRAINING
CELLS...EITHER IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME TOMORROW OR AHEAD
OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...WILL CREATE
AVERAGE AREAWIDE 3 TO 5 INCHES (WITH LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). DARK HOUR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ONLY HEIGHTENS THE NEED FOR STRESSING THIS
FLOODING THREAT. 31
Quoting RitaEvac:

I hope this pans out. I am seriously ready to drown some gophers or at least flush them out to where the dogs can catch them.
About that other kind of flood risk...

Preliminary Flood Maps in Orange County, Texas Ready for Public View


Main Content
Release date:
January 7, 2013
Release Number:
R6-13-005

Public Open Houses Scheduled to Share Map Changes and Flood Risk Information

DENTON, Texas –Homeowners, renters and business owners in Orange County, Texas are encouraged to look over newly released preliminary flood maps in order to determine their flood risks and make informed decisions.

Orange County officials and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are presenting the preliminary maps to communities and unincorporated areas in order to help leaders and residents identify known flood risks and use that information to make decisions about buying flood insurance and how the community should move forward with any development.

The Texas-based coastal flood mapping effort follows the release of a new, comprehensive storm surge study from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) that gives updated information on coastal flood risks. To share that data, two public workshops have been scheduled in the county where interested citizens can obtain more information about the proposed changes.

Tuesday and Wednesday, Jan. 15 & 16, 2013

Bridge City Community Center

105 Parkside

Bridge City, TX 77611

2 p.m. – 8 p.m.

Jefferson County

Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013

Ford Park Exhibit Hall

5115 I-10 South

Beaumont, TX 77705

2 p.m. – 8 p.m.

“As we work together with our state and local partners to bring this critical information to the county, we ask that everyone review the maps to understand what flood risks are involved,” said FEMA R6 acting Regional Administrator Tony Robinson. “The role of the community as an active partner in the flood mapping process is very important.”

Additional information is available, including links to the interactive mapping website on www.txchart.com. Residents can also contact the Jefferson County Floodplain Administrator for more details. Or the Orange County Floodplain Administrator for more details.
According to Eric Holthaus, fewer people evacuated in Hurricane Sandy than Hurricane Irene.
NSWRural Fire Services statewide update: 124 fires, 340 trucks, 1126 Firefighters, 63 Aircraft.
53989.59 ha(208.455sq Miles) burnt.
0 lives lost
0 Properties lost
The NHC released their Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCRs) on Debby, Kirk, Carlotta, and Olivia today. Changes include a peak intensity of 55 kt for Debby (it was 50 kt operationally), and a 95 kt peak intensity for Carlotta (up from the operational 90 kt). There have been no changes to Kirk or Olivia as far as I can tell.

Debby

Kirk

Carlotta

Olivia
Quoting AussieStorm:

I feel for you buddy. LOL
Give me hot weather over cold weather anytime.


Knowing how things are there I'll rather stick my cold...
Quoting AussieStorm:

not as bad as 105.4F


Larger image.


whew...105.1F at 3.40pm.
Still slightly cloudy so that's good :)
Quoting ktymisty:


whew...105.1F at 3.40pm.
Still slightly cloudy so that's good :)

Some little F***s deliberately lit a fire in the bush behind Shelvey/Bidwill a suburb in western Sydney. Were seen riding away by the residents. That fire injured 2 fire fighters that were attending to try and put that fire out. Thankfully that fire has now been contained.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Knowing how things are there I'll rather stick my cold...


+1, you can always dress more warmly.

I am beginning to think that the rest of January will stay relatively mild for the Southeast US overall with only one significant cold spell that will NOT bring freezing temps to my area. The long range models are not showing anything that impressive in terms of an arctic air mass moving really far south.
Sydney, NSW: 41.8°C feels like: 40.0°C, RH: 15% Wind: NW 25.9km/h Updated: 03:29 PM Forecast: 21–43°C
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
After week 1 of intense heat, GFS expands & goes for more in week 2 for southern Australia. 120-125°F.

NSW is ablaze.




Google Crisis map
It's now raining and snowing in parts of Tasmania. Thanks you Mother Nature.
Australia is HOT damn HOT!!!!



At 2:00 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (995 hPa) was located near 11.9S 118.4E or 790 km north northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.1S 117.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.7S 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.0S 115.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.5S 114.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 0432 UTC infrared and visible satellite image animation. Curvature of convective bands has improved, giving a 0.75 wrap. Exposed low level cloud lines evident on eastern flank of CDO indicate system is still affected by weak shear. Dvorak analysis DT=3.0 based on curved band, MET=PAT=3.0. FT based on DT. Northeast vertical wind shear is reducing as the system becomes more organized.

The environment is favourable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected at the standard rate for 72 hours, reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia, before weakening in the longer term as the system moves over cooler waters.
What is the GFS hinting at here????


Temps in C
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
At 2:00 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (995 hPa) was located near 11.9S 118.4E or 790 km north northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Morning folks!
Evening Aussie.. wow, y'all are being fried alive down there. I thought it was wonderful you offered your help yesterday to your mate Aussie, you are a good egg sir.
Wow.... I hope Australia gets some rain soon... they really need it
Good Morning Folks..7-day for tampa bay..warm this week..
heed your local warnings texas tonight-tomorrow...
wow..a rain maker for sure..............
Quoting Doppler22:
Wow.... I hope Australia gets some rain soon... they really need it

Unfortunately, there is nothing really coming, just a few passing light showers.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning folks!
Evening Aussie.. wow, y'all are being fried alive down there. I thought it was wonderful you offered your help yesterday to your mate Aussie, you are a good egg sir.

That's what humans should always do, help out there friends neighbours and countrymen/woman no matter when. If we all did that the world would be a better place. We need to bring back mate-ship.
good evening aussie..have no idea what Time it is there..but..its just awful the temps and the fires around you, stay safe my friend,with all those fires the air you breathe will probably be bad as well when the wind is right...thanks for all the pics etc..
Quoting LargoFl:
good evening aussie..have no idea what Time it is there..but..its just awful the temps and the fires around you, stay safe my friend,with all those fires the air you breathe will probably be bad as well when the wind is right...thanks for all the pics etc..

No worries mate, Just glad no ****head hasn't set fire to the bush right beside my place.

Currently
08/09:50pm 35.2*C (95.4*F)
Relative Humidity: 22%
south florida might be breaking some records this week..
Quoting AussieStorm:

No worries mate, Just glad no ****head hasn't set fire to the bush right beside my place.

Currently
08/09:50pm 35.2*C (95.4*F)
Relative Humidity: 22%
ok thanks aussie..stay safe, have a great night
warmimg up some in the panhandle of florida too....
9 News just showed 100's of people still at Bondi beach, some still in the water. It's 10pm now.
wow over 12 hours of pouring rain ......
gfs at 48 hours..still raining there......
stay safe texas.....................
Bureau of Meteorology had to add new colours to explain how hot it is in Australia



That purple area is 54C
Texas will be getting all your rain aussie..geez.........FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON.. .CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOME RY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.. .AND
WHARTON.

* FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY MAINLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL EVENT...STREET FLOODING
MAY BECOME COMMON TONIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL MAY BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED. MAINSTEM RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING MAY BECOME
INVOLVED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE RAINFALL AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE GROUND TO QUICKLY
SATURATE AND RAIN TO RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IF POSSIBLE AVOID TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT
DELAYS IF TRAVEL CANNOT BE PUT OFF TO A LATER TIME.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...ALLEN...
BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...RAPIDES...VERNON AND WEST CAMERON. IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...
NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON
AND TYLER.

* FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* AREAS OF RAINFALL ARE STARTING TO AFFECT EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. WHILE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING RAINS...WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER EAST TEXAS. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE RESULTED IN SOILS WITH A REDUCED
ABSORPTION CAPACITY...AND RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL ONLY SERVE TO WORSEN THIS SITUATION IN THE LEAD UP TO THE
PERIOD OF GREATEST RISK...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE A RISK FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. FLOODING OF RIVERS AND BAYOUS
MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Wish we could send you some of the rain we're to get here in western Louisiana, Aussie. We're already under flood watches and the rain event hasn't really started yet.
Nam at 36 hours,gulf moisture being pulled in..whew...
It's going to be a very wet next three days. The problem is the ground is saturated from the rain last week, hence the flooding.
Bega today
08/08:00am 22.9C
08/11:30am 41.0C

...........................

Weather forecasters believe today may have been Australia's hottest day on record but they won't know until tomorrow morning then they calculate the average. Monday remains the hottest day since records began with an average maximum temperature across Australia of 40.33 degrees, beating the previous record of 40.17 degrees set in 1972.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Wish we could send you some of the rain we're to get here in western Louisiana, Aussie. We're already under flood watches and the rain event hasn't really started yet.

Oh please send it here, send it in bucket load, no wait, send it in truck loads or even plane loads.
This fire just jumped the major highway down the south coast, now headed towards towns on the coast.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Bureau of Meteorology had to add new colours to explain how hot it is in Australia



That purple area is 54C
How can humans survive there.sorry to hear about the news in there hope that they get the rain they need.so sad.
How Australians have tried to keep cool during this heat.

















290. etxwx
Showers starting to move in...
Hope it's a slow, long duration and steady rainfall - not the inch an hour kind. But honestly, we need this, so no complaints here. Just hope everyone stays safe out there.
34.9°C
Updated at 23:00 EDT

94.8°F
Updated at 23:00 EDT
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh please send it here, send it in bucket load, no wait, send it in truck loads or even plane loads.


Aussie, if there was a way to do it, I would! Stay cool and praying no fires your way. Everyone have a great Tuesday, and Aussie, a great Wednesday.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Aussie, if there was a way to do it, I would! Stay cool and praying no fires your way. Everyone have a great Tuesday, and Aussie, a great Wednesday.
Thanks and Thanks.



A cool change bringing relief to eastern NSW has just passed through Moruya with the temperature dropping 20C.



I'm going to have a big bowl of ice-cream while I wait for this southerly change.
Well, everyone have a nice day, I am off to spend the morning with my County Commission. Clean water, and a healthy estuary takes work, everyone should be involved. Right after children and air, water is our most precious resource, protect it, or be poisoned by it.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER

Indian Riverkeeper, your Waterkeeper Alliance at work.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081302Z - 081430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEAR-SHORE SEVERE/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH ANY SUCH POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED /AND OF SHORT DURATION/ THIS MORNING. NO WATCH
IS ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY /SINCE 1230Z/ IS INDICATIVE OF A
STORM WITH UPDRAFT ROTATION JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST...SOUTHWEST
OF THE FREEPORT TX VICINITY AS OF 1250Z. THIS TSTM IS LIKELY
OCCURRING VERY NEAR/PERHAPS JUST A BIT NORTH OF A SHARPENING WARM
FRONT THAT DEMARCATES RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
INLAND AND A MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS /60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS PER A LONG-CURVING HODOGRAPH PER
THE HOUSTON WSR-88D VWP...THIS STORM SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
FAVORING THE NEARLY-STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND/OR BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED TOWARD THE COAST. WHILE A NEAR-SHORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS...IT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 01/08/2013
if this does happen,should help your drought there....
this would cause urban flooding by me,stay safe folks..
many years ago, i bought my daughter a new car for graduating high school, well the 2nd day it poured like whats happening in Texas, she was driving home, there is a dip in the roadway covered with water..of course she drove into it..the water turned out to be UP to the windows..folks if the water is covering the roadway..turn around and go another way..stay safe folks
Quoting indianrivguy:
Well, everyone have a nice day, I am off to spend the morning with my County Commission. Clean water, and a healthy estuary takes work, everyone should be involved. Right after children and air, water is our most precious resource, protect it, or be poisoned by it.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER

Indian Riverkeeper, your Waterkeeper Alliance at work.

Great stuff mate!

My place right now.
33.8°C
Updated at 00:10 EDT

92.8°F
Updated at 00:10 EDT
nws is getting worried and trying to warn people.....
ZAATARI, Jordan - Syrian refugees in a Jordanian camp attacked aid workers with sticks and stones on Tuesday, frustrated after cold, howling winds swept away their tents and torrential rains flooded muddy streets overnight.

Police said seven aid workers were injured.

The refugees may be about to face even deeper misery with warnings of a major snowstorm threatening Jordan and Turkey — the two countries with the largest Syrian refugee populations.

"It is hell — boiling hot in the summer and freezing cold now," lamented Ahmed Zibi, 45, who said he spent the night watching over his five children when his tent collapsed. "Rain flooded the tent and its shafts submerged and collapsed on us."

The riot broke out after the region's first major winter storm this year hit the Zaatari refugee camp, home to nearly 50,000 refugees in Jordan's northern desert. Inside the camp, pools and lakes surrounded tents, stranding refugees including pregnant women and infants.
Oklahoma needs this rain for their drought huh....
STARTING TO GET BAD ALREADY................SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MATAGORDA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CST...

AT 654 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREEPORT...CLUTE...OYSTER CREEK...SURFSIDE BEACH...AND QUINTANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&
rain coming texas lots and lots of rain
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON.. .CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOME RY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.. .AND
WHARTON.

* FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY MAINLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL EVENT...STREET FLOODING
MAY BECOME COMMON TONIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL MAY BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED. MAINSTEM RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING MAY BECOME
INVOLVED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE RAINFALL AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE GROUND TO QUICKLY
SATURATE AND RAIN TO RUNOFF.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST January 8 2013
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Sonamu (1006 hPa) located at 6.0N 108.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Another tropical depression (1004 hPa) located at 4.0N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. This depression is reported as almost stationary.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F
18:00 PM FST January 8 2013
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07F (1003 hPa) located near 16.1S 157.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on mulit-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor and convection has not increased much near the center of the system. The system lies downstream of an upper cut-off low with moderate to strong divergence aloft in a moderate sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southward with slight intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone remains LOW.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
rain coming texas lots and lots of rain

they need it, Good luck to them, I hope this is the change they need to turn around the drought conditions there.
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 8 2013
=================================

Area of disturbed weather east of the basin:
Multi-spectral satellite imagery shows no more obvious center in the area. Low level circulation is now organized clockwise around an elongated shear line existing along 11S axis from 84E to 86E (ASCAT 0314Z). Environmental conditions are unfavorable for a significant deepening in relationship with the both constraint of an easterly vertical wind shear and a bad low level convergence (equatorward westerly flow remains very zonal).

Convective Activity remains fluctuating for several days and mainly extends along 10s axis between 8S and 17S, east of 79E.

In this area, numerical weather prediction models don't deepen any more any significant low.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression east of the basin remains poor.
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) - Alabama's second annual Severe Weather Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday will be the weekend of Feb. 22-24.

The state Revenue Department says the state will waive its 4% sales tax on items used to prepare homes and businesses for hurricanes and tornadoes. Some cities and counties will do the same.

Items covered by the sales tax holiday include batteries, battery-powered radios, flashlights, tarpaulins, duct tape, plywood, self-contained first aid kits and fuel containers costing up to $60 per item. Also included are portable generators costing up to $1,000 each.

Online: http://www.revenue.alabama.gov
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
9:08 PM CST January 8 2012
=========================================

At 8:00 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (987 hPa) was located near 12.3S 117.4E or 820 km northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24H RS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 116.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.5S 116.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.9S 115.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.5S 113.7E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 1032UTC infrared satellite image. Curvature of convective bands has improved, giving a 0.8 wrap. Dvorak analysis DT=3.5. MET=3.0. FT based on PAT=3.5. The system is becoming more organized as it moves southwest into an area of reduced vertical wind shear.

The environment is favourable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected at the standard rate for 72 hours, reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia, before weakening in the longer term as the system moves over cooler waters.
316. VR46L
GOES - Texas - visible from allmetsat

FLASH FLOODING.............During:Be aware that flash flooding can occur. If there is any possibility of a flash flood, move immediately to higher ground. Do not wait for instructions to move.
If you must prepare to evacuate, you should do the following:
•Turn off utilities at the main switches or valves if instructed to do so. Disconnect electrical appliances. Do not touch electrical equipment if you are wet or standing in water.
•Secure your home. If you have time, bring in outdoor furniture. Move essential items to an upper floor.
Be aware of stream, drainage channels, canyons and other areas known to flood suddenly. Flash floods can occur in these areas with or without typical warnings such as rain clouds or heavy rain.
If you have to leave your home, remember these evacuation tips:
•Do not walk through moving water. Six inches of moving water can make you fall. If you have to walk in water, walk where the water is not moving. Use a stick to check the firmness of the ground in front of you.
•Do not drive into flooded areas. If floodwaters rise around your car, abandon the car and move to higher ground if you can do so safely. You and the vehicle can be swept away quickly.
•Do not camp or park your vehicle along streams, rivers or creeks, particularly during threatening conditions.
A while back I reported on the situation in northern Iceland with prolongued high winds and snowfall, power and heat outages, all roads closed to many towns, serious avalanche risks on towns, and dwindling supplies of oil in some places for the backup generators. While the situation is now fully resolved, I thought you might get a kick of this picture from the "cleared" road that let people in and out of Ólafsfjörður (saw it on the front page of vedur.is, the main weather site here in Iceland):







Guys ~ If you look very closely, you can see Rita dancing in the rain holding up a sign saying "OMG it's raining and please please gimme more!!"






Quoting KarenRei:
A while back I reported on the situation in northern Iceland with prolongued high winds and snowfall, power and heat outages, all roads closed to many towns, serious avalanche risks on towns, and dwindling supplies of oil in some places for the backup generators. While the situation is now fully resolved, I thought you might get a kick of this picture from the "cleared" road that let people in and out of Ólafsfjörður (saw it on the front page of vedur.is, the main weather site here in Iceland):






Morning, Karen.




SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT
MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEGINNING. PREPARATIONS WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
INTO THE MID WEEK TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING STRONGER AND MORE TOWARD SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

$$
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Morning, Karen.






Mornin, Tomball. How's that rain going in Texas? A good chunk of my family lives in the Houston area.
Jonathan Erdman ‏@wxjerdman
More interesting weather in Hawaii...this landspout caught on video ripped roofs off homes: http://wxch.nl/WIg84j #hiwx
Quoting KarenRei:


Mornin, Tomball. How's that rain going in Texas? A good chunk of my family lives in the Houston area.




Oh, very cool!! It's a great area.

The rain is fantastic.

Enjoying it very much so.

And it's so needed, too!

I hope it keeps up but without the flash flooding of course.



Bohonk will be happy today huh..good luck over there.......LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES FROM EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TO HIGHWAY 281. FROM HIGHWAY 281 AND EXTENDING EAST
TO A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN TO GONZALES TO YORKTOWN...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALONG AND
EAST OF A GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN TO GONZALES TO YORKTOWN LINE...
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY...JANUARY 8...2013
THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 9...2013.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS EARLY JANUARY OF 2013
RAIN EVENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$
Short hello - and good luck with the rain in Texas and the end of the heatwave in Australia! Barb

Coral Records Suggest El Nino Activity Rises Above Background


Jan. 3, 2013 — By examining a set of fossil corals that are as much as 7,000 years old, scientists have dramatically expanded the amount of information available on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a Pacific Ocean climate cycle that affects climate worldwide. The new information will help assess the accuracy of climate model projections for 21st century climate change in the tropical Pacific.

The new coral data show that 20th century El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycles are significantly stronger than ENSO variations captured in the fossil corals. But the data also reveal large natural variations in past ENSO strength, making it difficult to attribute the 20th century intensification of ENSO to rising carbon dioxide levels. Such large natural fluctuations in ENSO activity are also apparent in multi-century climate model simulations.

Source and more on Science Daily
Woohooo!!!!!!!! It's almost here


Loop
Hey Aussie, the GFS is showing a couple of possible hurricanes you should keep your eye on.

Storm 1


Storm 2


Storm 3
Lots of activity now...
It's already been a busy season so far..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
GALVESTON BAY...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST

* AT 737 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...LOCATED OVER
SEABROOK...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.


WARM UP RAIN FOLLOWED BY BIG COOL DOWN AND SNOW
Indian River Guy, are you or the keeper comming up to the St. Johns River WMD Board some time?
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Hey Aussie, the GFS is showing a couple of possible hurricanes you should keep your eye on.

Storm 1


Storm 2


Storm 3

That's what happens when the MJO comes around, We get Cyclones.
Quoting LargoFl:
if this does happen,should help your drought there....
The Heaviest Rains in Texas are Falling over the Wettest part of Texas unfortunately, southeast texas is not lacking in rain like the rest of the state, FYI.
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Guys ~ If you look very closely, you can see Rita dancing in the rain holding up a sign saying "OMG it's raining and please please gimme more!!"








342. etxwx
The rain is starting to come down now here in Jasper County, and we are getting some pretty flashy lightening. The small dogs are in early stage storm alert mode (looks of concern, staying in close proximity, minimal vibrations.)
I expect I'll soon lose our satellite internet connection to the heavy rain.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The Heaviest Rains in Texas are Falling over the Wettest part of Texas unfortunately, southeast texas is not lacking in rain like the rest of the state, FYI.


Your area is going to be filling in on radar
Quoting RitaEvac:





You're back in, Rita.

Change into any dry clothes...?



It's slowly cooling down.

31.9°C (89.4°F)
Updated at 00:50 EDT
Thanks for the great Issac graphic Dr. M! It will be fantastic to get the Mississippi river sediment back onto the shelf where it can do some good, and away from the dead zone where it is killing the ocean.

Hopefully there will be enough water in the river to move the sediment and restore the protective delta wetlands.
Quoting TomballTXPride:



You're back in, Rita.

Change into any dry clothes...?





just decided not to wear any
Quoting RitaEvac:


just decided not to wear any




Love it!!



Nice caption anyway

‘Frankenstorm’ Lashes Israel
Israel’s answer to “Superstorm Sandy” closed Tel Aviv’s major highway, and that’s only a preview. Heavy snow predicted.
By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
First Publish: 1/8/2013, 10:04 AM
Israel’s answer to “Superstorm Sandy” closed the Ayalon, Tel Aviv’s major highway Tuesday morning, and the worst is yet to come, with several inches of snow possible in Jerusalem and lesser amounts at levels as far west as the Carmel ridge near Haifa.
Source and more

Quoting RitaEvac:


Your area is going to be filling in on radar
Our projected totals here have dropped to 1 to 2 inches and around 1 inch over Lake Travis, the heavy rains according to NWS and latest models will be East of Austin where they have been getting decent rains lately. So for our area this will be decent rains but not drought busters like it will be in extreme east and southeast Texas where flooding will be a problem. La. doesnt need 5 to 8 inches of rain either at least not where they are going to get it in Southwest La.
The southerly change just hit Sydney airport. it's gone dead still outside my place. Won't be long now till it hit my place. WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!

I'm waiting for the change to hit my place, then I'll open all the windows and the front and back door to let it pass through.
The small dogs are in early stage storm alert mode (looks of concern, staying in close proximity, minimal vibrations.)

HaHa! That's funny!

I am in Pasadena, but my St. Bernard couldn't care less about the weather =)
A nice explanation and interesting read from Buffalo's NWS disco this morning about the stratospheric warming event and MJO. Go down to the climate portion of the discussion.

Link
Quoting Chucktown:
A nice explanation and interesting read from Buffalo's NWS disco this morning about the stratospheric warming event and MJO. Go down to the climate portion of the discussion.

Link


Indeed. Thanks!
Quoting RitaEvac:


just decided not to wear any


My favorite paraphrase is "people who live in glass houses should not walk around naked." So maybe pull down the shades? :))))
Quoting LargoFl:
Bohonk will be happy today huh..good luck over there.......LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES FROM EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TO HIGHWAY 281. FROM HIGHWAY 281 AND EXTENDING EAST
TO A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN TO GONZALES TO YORKTOWN...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALONG AND
EAST OF A GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN TO GONZALES TO YORKTOWN LINE...
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY...JANUARY 8...2013
THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 9...2013.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS EARLY JANUARY OF 2013
RAIN EVENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$
I just hope Texas gets rain besides Southeast Texas where they always get it anyway, their Lakes are not Down 50 to 60 feet like other parts of state. LOL I just hope the cracks in our ground close here, I am not worried about flooding when there is No water in creeks and rivers.
Quoting barbamz:
Nice caption anyway

‘Frankenstorm’ Lashes Israel
Israel’s answer to “Superstorm Sandy” closed Tel Aviv’s major highway, and that’s only a preview. Heavy snow predicted.
By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
First Publish: 1/8/2013, 10:04 AM
Israel’s answer to “Superstorm Sandy” closed the Ayalon, Tel Aviv’s major highway Tuesday morning, and the worst is yet to come, with several inches of snow possible in Jerusalem and lesser amounts at levels as far west as the Carmel ridge near Haifa.
Source and more



Snow in the Middle East?

Weird.
Woohooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's here, It's here, It's here, It's here, It's here, It's here, the southerly change is here
Quoting Chucktown:
A nice explanation and interesting read from Buffalo's NWS disco this morning about the stratospheric warming event and MJO. Go down to the climate portion of the discussion.

Link


Thanks Chucktown..
I think thats the best explanation I've seen in a NWS product on that..
Great Analysis..
Very informative..
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Snow in the Middle East?

Weird.

Not the 1st time thought.
Looks like JB was right about the stratospheric warming..who would'va thunk?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Woohooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's here, It's here, It's here, It's here, It's here, It's here, the southerly change is here


Why are you so pumped up over a wind shift?
the wind has changed directions but it's not cool yet. not very strong either.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Record Heat and alot of Fires in Australia sounds so much like our Summers in South Central Texas the last few years. I hope they get some relief soon.
Watch out World I went out and did a Rain dance the Skies will open up over Texas now. :)
Quoting ncstorm:
Looks like JB was right about the stratospheric warming..who would'va thunk?
He knows weather...Even tho people say he does not.