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Hurricane Irene Weakens on its Approach to North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:58 AM GMT on August 27, 2011

As of 300AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 33.7N, 76.5W, 60 miles south of Cape Lookout. It was moving north-northeast at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, making it a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 952 mb.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the US Atlantic coast from the Little River inlet in North Carolina to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. Tornado watches are also in effect for the North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland coast. Figure 1 shows the hurricane, tropical storm, and tornado watches and warnings for Irene. Remember, a hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected, and tropical storm force winds (greater than 34 mph) will occur within 36 hours. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm force winds are expected in the next 36 hours, but hurricane conditions are not. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm force winds are possible within 48 hours.

To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes. FEMA also has a blog describing their response to Irene.


Figure 1 Map of watches and warnings taken at 225AM EDT, August 27, 2011

Satellite Views
Figure 2 shows that Irene is a large storm, with outflow reaching from South Carolina to Long Island, NY. Irene's eye is not visible.


Figure 2 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 226AM EDT, August 27, 2011

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to make landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday morning as a category 1 storm with sustained winds around 90 mph. I believe that Irene's center of circulation will make landfall somewhere between Cape Lookout and Okracoke on the Outer Banks around 9-10 am. Irene should then move roughly north, along the mid-Atlantic coastline before making landfall in western Long Island. However, it is important to not focus solely on the track forecast. Irene is a large storm with a large windfield and equally large areas of storms and showers. It's impact will be felt over a wide swath of the northeastern US.


Figure 3 Official track forecast of Irene at 11PM EDT, Aug. 26.

Irene and Flooding
Six to ten inches of rain are possible along Irene's track from North Carolina north into New England, with 15 inches possible in isolated areas. Radar estimates indicate at least 5 inches have already fallen near Morehead City, NC. As a result, flooding is very likely. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has issued their Significant River Flood Outlook for the next five days shown in figure 4. HPC thinks that river flooding from the Delmarva peninsula to northwestern Maine is likely, while river flooding in much of the rest of the northeastern US is possible.


Figure 4 Significant River Flood Outlook issued by HPC.

Impacts

Tropical storm forces winds are occuring at Cape Lookout now, with hurricane force winds expected on the North Carolina coast later today. Use this Wundermap to keep track of how the winds are behaving around the North Carolina coastline. Within the hurricane warning area in North Carolina, storm surge is expected to be 6-11 feet above ground. This is our storm surge forecast map. To see how high the tides are running, NOAA has an excellent page collecting all of the relevant tide gauges.

People living on the the east coast of the US from the Carolinas to Cape Cod should continue monitoring Irene and be in the process of finishing their hurricane preparations. If you have not started preparing for this storm, start immediately. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it, unless it is unsafe to do so. Irene will be a large storm, impacting areas far from the storm center track.

Links

If you're curious about power outages, here are some maps: Dominion Power Outage Map (NC/VA), Progress Energy Outage Map (NC/SC), and NOVEC Outage Map (Northern Virginia).

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and there will be another blog this afternoon. I'll be back with another blog entry late tonight.

Stay safe,

Dr. Rob Carver

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. FLdewey
Quoting AussieStorm:

hmmmmmm

Post 931 - Christ almighty man.
1002. Jax82
Its hotter than blue blazes here in NEFL. Says its going to get up to 97 at the beaches but its only 92 right now, not a cloud in the sky. Just saw a reporter on TWC on Nags Head island on the beach, houses are just losing some shingles etc but they said damage is not that bad. Luckily Irene's eyewall never redeveloped, but still going to be a major flood/storm surge concern from here on out to the Northeast.
1003. jpsb
Quoting unc70:
NJ, NY, or New England will have much greater damage from this storm than in NC.

I agree, I figured N.C. could handle Irene, my worry has always been NYC, Long Island and coastal New England. Been reading that the Storm Surge in N.C. was only 6 or 7 feet, Great news, but I fear water will pile up better in the LL and NYC area then in N.C. Also somewhat concerned about the Delaware Bay. Bays are where the surge could be really bad.
Justed checked the rain gauge and we're just under 5" so far.
1005. Patrap
Norfolk
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation


Quoting nola70119:


In New Orleans most of the damage from Katrina was from flooding, and from the looks of Irene, she might surprise some people. 10-12inches of rain is an extremely dangerous flood situation locally, regionally it could be a Biblical flood...
Let's keep religion out of it.
Quoting zoomiami:
Does anyone have pics or links to cams for Chesapeake Bay Bridge?
Google 511 with the state name of interest and it should link you up with that's state road conditions site which usually contains a set of links to their road cameras.
1007. 996tt
Quoting Jax82:
Its hotter than blue blazes here in NEFL. Says its going to get up to 97 at the beaches but its only 92 right now, not a cloud in the sky. Just saw a reporter on TWC on Nags Head island on the beach, houses are just losing some shingles etc but they said damage is not that bad. Luckily Irene's eyewall never redeveloped, but still going to be a major flood/storm surge concern from here on out to the Northeast.


No doubt. Just South of you and ready for fall to get her. Supposed to be like 98 back home in Destin today.
Quoting Levi32:


Unless widespread reports of over 85mph sustained occur, I doubt they will upgrade it, especially since it is gradually weakening over time.


I can't find any surface winds > 85 mph.
Quoting Levi32:


How about this?


Thank you -- forgot about looking for the traffic cams, usually use those during winter storms,, duh
1010. FLdewey
Last trains are out of Penn Station...



Would be an interesting scene.
2 deaths in the US so far.
Quoting Dakster:


Every time I had done hurricane clean-up or worked in the aftermath of one - I have gotten sick... Not fun. and I routinely get all of the vaccinations. All kind of bateria, mold, fungus, and must nastier stuff is floating around.



Could be the vaccinations that are making you sick.
Quoting Tazmanian:
what kind of damg could we see in DC and new york?


Tree damage and flooding is likely in DC with power outages - but we shouldn't see major wind damage.

Not sure about New York but if Irene stays like she is now, the high rise buildings in New York could sustain window damage.
1014. P451
While we wait and watch to see the end result of the interaction between Irene and NC it is important to note that anytime these systems get to exactly where it is now they can wobble around and have course changes.

Sometimes they wobble inland and end up decaying as they head north. Sometimes they stay the course and head up the coast. The majority of the time they trickle out to sea leaving the areas just inland from the coast mostly spared.

While not entirely sure which of the first two scenarios will play out I would put more weight into the coastal riding solution.

I can say it is not going out to sea.

Until a weaker solution is officially announced you should refer to the present forecast which has a high confidence and does not follow every new wobble every 15 minutes and change.

The current forecast is holding firm.

Coastal regions 55-75 gusting 90. Somewhat inland is 50-70 gusting 80. Further inland of course is less as you go.

Mt. Holly - NWS office still concerned about the 250 MB Jet to form later tonight.

MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL JET
EVEN HAS SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT AND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION
OF THIS JET IT IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO MAY TEND TO HELP WITH
A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THEREFORE, DESPITE SOME INCREASING SHEAR
AS THE HURRICANE GAINES LATITUDE ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS AND LAND
INTERACTIONS, PERHAPS THIS IS WHY MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEARLY
INSISTS THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A RATHER LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE ALL THE
WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT BECOMES EVEN MORE OF AN INTENSITY
FORECAST CHALLENGE AS TROPICAL CYCLONES GET THIS FAR NORTH AND
INTERACT WITH BAROCLINIC ZONES AND LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL JET IS CONCERNING
AS THIS MAY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN ENHANCING THE RAINFALL RATES.
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP
BEING THE MAIN TOPIC OF DISCUSSION FOR MANY YEARS. AN EXAMINATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AT 925 MB IS STILL CONCERNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF
60 TO NEARLY 85 KNOTS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL TEND TO SLOW THE
WIND DOWN SOME AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND ABOVE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
MIXING WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN/CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING GUSTS.
1017. Smikey
Irene is looking better and better with each passing frame: This is the best she has looked in almost 24 hours. Amazing....

FYI - WU has a good twitter feed going
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
2 deaths in the US and one missing.


Puerto Rico is also part of the U.S., so anything significant that occurred there does also count towards the unfortunate fatalities, etc.
1020. 996tt
Quoting txarchitect:


He must have been cold.


That is some funny sh . . .
1021. jpsb
Quoting AransasBayRat:


I don't mean to criticize, but could we not show a little more gratitude for an accomodation that is freely given to us in times of disaster? Fema trailors are not meant to be luxury suites. They are meant to be temporary housing in times of distress. In this entitlement generation it would be really pleasant to see more people show thanks instead of expecting better handouts.

After Ike those FEMA trailers looked pretty good to me. Unfortunately I did not get one. There are still a few of them around. And I still wish I had one. :)
Quoting AransasBayRat:


I don't mean to criticize, but could we not show a little more gratitude for an accomodation that is freely given to us in times of disaster? Fema trailors are not meant to be luxury suites. They are meant to be temporary housing in times of distress. In this entitlement generation it would be really pleasant to see more people show thanks instead of expecting better handouts.

X10
1023. FLdewey
Quoting PcolaDan:
FYI - WU has a good twitter feed going


I noticed hurricane Irene is on twitter now too... maybe she'll give us some insight.
Although any storms (or thunderstorm) can be dangerous the present storm is nothing as extraordinary that common sense people can not surpass. I mean people should take it seriously, but please, do not think that is the End... It is a common natural storm (although many people had not yet experienced one before). Stay safe and enjoy it if possible.
the Empire State Building could be looking at 100mph winds on the higher floors
Pros: looks like earlier start and that due north for 5 hours means worse effects for DC and then points east. I wasn't expecting the rain bands nearly this early or that far west.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the Empire State Building could be looking at 100mph winds on the higher floors


Yeah, that's what is bad about those high buildings and hurricanes.
1028. FLdewey
After Andrew I lived in my car for a month... so a FEMA trailer in all of it's glory would have been sweet.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Can't find any. But here are some traffic cams in Norfolk/Virginia Beach.


Thanks! Those are actually quite interesting as one goes from state to state.
1031. Jax82
Who wants to take a guess of how many windows break in NYC? 100? 1,000? 10,000? Whats a good window company i could buy stock in?
Quoting zoomiami:


Thank you -- forgot about looking for the traffic cams, usually use those during winter storms,, duh

trafficland.com
Quoting FLdewey:
FEMA trailers staging in NC

Them ain't FEMA trailers. Them is FEMA trailer-trucks (lorries). If you don't believe me ask Pat. He has done extensive research on the topic and should be well qualified to speak on the subject.
Anybody heard of damage reports in Atlantic Beach?
1035. Levi32
Water vapor continues to show dry air getting wrapped in to the east of Irene's center, and that's why we don't see many strong bands directly east of the eye. However, all of that air piling ashore to the north of the eye hits the land and encounters friction, causing it to pile up more, forcing it to rise upward. That is why the bands are intensifying so much west of the eye over North Carolina and Virginia. Also, the water vapor loop reveals a frontal boundary which came southeastward through Ohio over the last several hours associated with the upper shortwave trough over southeast Canada, and this is providing baroclinic support to the western side of the hurricane, also intensifying the rainfall.

Quoting mcluvincane:
Anybody heard of damage reports in Atlantic Beach?


The pier is pretty much gone. Heavily damaged.
Quoting FLdewey:
After Andrew I lived in my car for a month... so a FEMA trailer in all of it's glory would have been sweet.


Thanks to you and the others who posted... restores my faith in humanity's ability to be grateful. Sometimes it seems to be a lost art.
Quoting ncCANEiac:


Let me correct myself. 100,000 escaped in Floyd. Estimates are that there are now 200,000 in eastern NC.


That is quite a lot of generations for hogs, which likely have become Feral long ago.
1039. P451
Post 1015. I urge everyone who is trying to analyze Irene's future intensity - using the knowledge you have from the deep tropics - to read that discussion and understand that you are attempting to apply an understanding you have of a storm to one who is not subject to that understanding.

Quoting Hurricanes12:


Puerto Rico is also part of the U.S., so anything significant that occurred there does also count towards the unfortunate fatalities, etc.

2 deaths in Haiti and 3 in the Dominican Republic, with 7 missing. 1 indirect death in PR as well.
Quoting Maryland1:
Pros: looks like earlier start and that due north for 5 hours means worse effects for DC and then points east. I wasn't expecting the rain bands nearly this early or that far west.


Same here - had a party to go to around 2pm but now we are chilling out instead. Weather isn't bad yet but should go downhill as the night goes on.

NHC local office has been increasing the winds for the DC area and calling for 3/4 inches of rain but I think it will be MUCH more than that:

Last night it was 20/30 with gusts to 40mph.

This morning it was 30/40 with gusts to 50mph.

Now it is 33/43mph with gusts to 55mph.
NNNNNEEEEEEWWWWWWW

BLOGGGGGGG
1043. bappit
Quoting P451:


There's no reason to doubt it.

These folks trying to equate Irene to a storm that makes landfall down in the tropics are out of their league. Period.

They don't understand baroclinic forcing. They don't understand how a jet stream can ventilate the system.

From the NHC 11 AM discussion:

AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TURN ORTHEASTWARD [sic] THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

If it reaches the westerlies after 48 hours, that will be after it visits NYC--on Monday. On the outside chance that Irene still has any hurricane force winds by the time it reaches NYC, I expect they will be over water only.
1044. hamla
Quoting AussieStorm:
Long Beach, NY Cam.

Southern Chesapeake Bay.


Atlantic City


on ur quote
van morrison song blue money lol
Quoting Jax82:
Who wants to take a guess of how many windows break in NYC? 100? 1,000? 10,000? Whats a good window company i could buy stock in?

i would say, 500,000 windows.
1046. h0db
Quoting Abacosurf:
X10


Ok, but they shouldn't make you sick or give you cancer, and you may be living in it for years, not months. Otherwise, it's like expecting gratitude because you let a poor person eat out of your garbage can.
Quoting Levi32:
Water vapor continues to show dry air getting wrapped in to the east of Irene's center, and that's why we don't see many strong bands directly east of the eye. However, all of that air piling ashore to the north of the eye hits the land and encounters friction, causing it to pile up more, forcing it to rise upward. That is why the bands are intensifying so much west of the eye over North Carolina. Also, the water vapor loop reveals a frontal boundary which came southeastward through Ohio over the last several hours associated with the upper shortwave trough over southeast Canada, and this is providing baroclinic support to the western side of the hurricane, also intensifying the rainfall.



A plus Levi. That is exactly what I wanted to know to explain what I see.
Unfortunately, the death toll is rising with this storm BECAUSE people do not obey the evacuation plans and also they underestimate the danger of the storm. Here in PR a woman perished when she attempted to cross a flooded river in her car. We just curious. BUT curiosity may be lethal sometimes. Curiosity is part of ourselves, BUT please, take CARE, protect yourself and your pets and kids (family), but specially your family. Don't forget: your family (human beings)is more important than your pets. Protect your pets after your family is safe.
1050. 996tt
Quoting nola70119:


In New Orleans most of the damage from Katrina was from flooding, and from the looks of Irene, she might surprise some people. 10-12inches of rain is an extremely dangerous flood situation locally, regionally it could be a Biblical flood...


Haha, no way. One of those. I guess Jesus told you I had never been in hurricane last night while discussing the biblical flood.

Katrina damage was in Mississippi. See photo in my album. New Orleans damage was due to levee break which equated to much more water than 12 inches of rain . . . Katrinia had a 30 foot storm surge that wiped the face of the earth clean for as far as the eyes could see in many areas. The debris was left perhaps a mile in stacked 30 feet high against tree lines with cars up in the middle of trees. Even the rail road tracks were messed up. That's Katrina damage. New Orleans was death's caused by human negligence in my opinion.
1051. MahFL
Convection firing on the SE side of the center.
1052. P451
Quoting FLdewey:


I noticed hurricane Irene is on twitter now too... maybe she'll give us some insight.


Taz should know. He's constantly asked her out. I'm not sure if his pickup line of "can I fart with you" is a winner though.
I'm not the originator, but thought should pass this along...

****WARNING****As Hurricane Irene prepares to batter the East Coast, federal disaster officials warn that Internet outages could force people to interact with other people for the first time in years. Residents are bracing themselves for the horror of awkward silences and unwanted eye contact. FEMA advises: “Be prepared. Write down possible topics to talk about in advance. Sports...the weather. Remember, a conversation is basically a series of Facebook (or WU blog)updates strung together.”
Quoting Joshfsu123:


Same here - had a party to go to around 2pm but now we are chilling out instead. Weather isn't bad yet but should go downhill as the night goes on.

NHC local office has been increasing the winds for the DC area and calling for 3/4 inches of rain but I think it will be MUCH more than that:

Last night it was 20/30 with gusts to 40mph.

This morning it was 30/40 with gusts to 50mph.

Now it is 33/43mph with gusts to 55mph.


Josh: I just rolled up the generator from the pole barn. Not happy about this move, at all. Beaches and the Northern neck are getting hammered right now. Spoke with friends on the South River who will be looking at a whole lot of water.
1055. unc70
Reports in NC of sustained 90 with gusts to 115 this morning east of Morehead City at several locations including Cedar Island ferry terminal.

Water temps on NC south coast and in Pamlico Sound 80 to 85 degrees.

Outermost bands have picked up a lot even in the Triangle.
Quoting FLdewey:
After Andrew I lived in my car for a month... so a FEMA trailer in all of it's glory would have been sweet.
For a month yes. That some folks got stuck in them as long as they did and had their health ruined is a shame and disgrace to this nation.
1057. Titoxd
Quoting AransasBayRat:
Titoxd did you see my reply/question in regards to your earlier post?


Just came back. Now I did; you have it right.
ONE LAST TIME

NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Quoting naviguesser:
I'm not the originator, but thought should pass this along...

****WARNING****As Hurricane Irene prepares to batter the East Coast, federal disaster officials warn that Internet outages could force people to interact with other people for the first time in years. Residents are bracing themselves for the horror of awkward silences and unwanted eye contact. FEMA advises: “Be prepared. Write down possible topics to talk about in advance. Sports...the weather. Remember, a conversation is basically a series of Facebook (or WU blog)updates strung together.”


rofl!
1060. P451


While not a kicker to send Irene out to sea as that solution is clearly not in the cards would this front not aim to guide her back NNE and up along the coast?

I realize there is a chance she works just far enough inland before doing so to bring her winds down from the potential 55-75/90G to 35-55/70G for northern NJ, NYC, CT and surrounding regions.

I'm just not so sure this northward motion would continue much longer.

Regardless, due to other forces at work, even if she were to head inland it would not be enough to wind her down. There will be damaging wind gusts all along her path. Yet 70 is quite a bit less dangerous than 90 when it comes to felling trees.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

2 deaths in Haiti and 3 in the Dominican Republic, with 7 missing. 1 indirect death in PR as well.


NBC-17 out of NC has also reported 1 unfortunate hurricane related casualty.
Quoting NavarreMark:


Hotter than hades in Navarre too.

I think the land interaction is gonna weaken the storm considerably.


Hasn't happened since landfall!
Quoting P451:


While not a kicker to send Irene out to sea as that solution is clearly not in the cards would this front not aim to guide her back NNE and up along the coast?

I realize there is a chance she works just far enough inland before doing so to bring her winds down from the potential 55-75/90G to 35-55/70G for northern NJ, NYC, CT and surrounding regions.

I'm just not so sure this northward motion would continue much longer.

Regardless, due to other forces at work, even if she were to head inland it would not be enough to wind her down. There will be damaging wind gusts all along her path. Yet 70 is quite a bit less dangerous than 90 when it comes to felling trees.



Radar has a wobble east recently (could just be the center becoming more organized cause the radar is) but I would expect it to turn NNE soon - still, she's moved far enough North to keep the center VERY close to the Maryland/Delaware area now... either over the coast or just off the coast.
Where'd everybody go?

I have a very novice, aka dumb, question. Why on the WU radar can you not see the entire storm? There are big blank spots.
1065. Titoxd
Quoting AransasBayRat:
Where'd everybody go?

I have a very novice, aka dumb, question. Why on the WU radar can you not see the entire storm? There are big blank spots.


The heavy convection closest to the radar just simply blocks the radar beam from reaching farther back into the storm. Let me see if I can find a link about it...
New Blog :)
Norfolk, Va.Link Radar

If it continues going north, it'll go right up Chesapeake Bay. I've only read a fraction of the posts, but can't remember seeing any comments about what a storm going in there would do.

1069. Buzzit
I give it 7 hours before the dry air over East North Central mixes out. Once that happens Irene will get a helping hand to keep its existing strength for a time.
Total rainfall is going to be horrendous / higher than expected.
wow down to 948mb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting AransasBayRat:


Thanks to you and the others who posted... restores my faith in humanity's ability to be grateful. Sometimes it seems to be a lost art.


Gratitude requires humility.
Humility requires respect.
Respect requires listening.
Listening requires self-control and so on...
============
Einstein must have a formula for it somewhere!


hitchhiking Irene...
Strange, the lastest radar imagery shows the eye more well formed and moving swiftly to the ENE for about the last 30 minutes...putting completely back over water again in the sound.
Quoting P451:


While not a kicker to send Irene out to sea as that solution is clearly not in the cards would this front not aim to guide her back NNE and up along the coast?

I realize there is a chance she works just far enough inland before doing so to bring her winds down from the potential 55-75/90G to 35-55/70G for northern NJ, NYC, CT and surrounding regions.

I'm just not so sure this northward motion would continue much longer.

Regardless, due to other forces at work, even if she were to head inland it would not be enough to wind her down. There will be damaging wind gusts all along her path. Yet 70 is quite a bit less dangerous than 90 when it comes to felling trees.



The frontal boundary is significant, but it is a weak front and Irene is big storm so Irene will be pushing the front around more than the other way around. The front is significant for another reason, it is connected to a jet streak which is forecast to strengthen very quickly over the next 36 hours. The 12z nam initializes a 70-80 kt jet in place over new england this morning, and shows a 160 kt jet streak exiting the northeast at hour 36, which is more typical of a strong winter storm. This jet will enhance precipitation and will help Irene maintain a very low central pressure, while vastly expanding the wind field (though the winds will be somewhat slower). All of this will help her maintain an impressive storm surge, in addition to the prolific amounts of rain. I wouldn't be surprised if the models were underplaying the amount of rain that will fall with this beast, and they are unanimously showing fairly widespread 10+ inches.
1076. Levi32
TWC guy in Atlantic Beach reported a wind gust of 103mph with sustained winds over 70mph in the southern eyewall as it came around and took him by surprise.
1077. rv1pop
Quoting AransasBayRat:


I don't mean to criticize, but could we not show a little more gratitude for an accomodation that is freely given to us in times of disaster? Fema trailors are not meant to be luxury suites. They are meant to be temporary housing in times of distress. In this entitlement generation it would be really pleasant to see more people show thanks instead of expecting better handouts.

+100
That is a high class statement. Thank you.
Quoting Titoxd:


The heavy convection closest to the radar just simply blocks the radar beam from reaching farther back into the storm. Let me see if I can find a link about it...


this is not totally accurate, it is more because the radar beam is directed out at an angle. Most of the clouds associated with Irene are 30-40 thousand feet tall, with the exception of her core where there are some approaching 50 kft. Even though it is a very small angle, over hundreds of miles this means the beam is just overshooting the tops of the clouds and precipitation.

Radars these days can penetrate supercells and still see storms on the other side, and the rain/ice density in a hurricane is far less than a supercell.
Quoting yonzabam:


Could be the vaccinations that are making you sick.
...and the exhaustion and exposure to other workers and volunteers from everywhere.
1080. rv1pop
Quoting Patrap:
We spent 27 months post K in Our FEMA trailer

And without it,,our Lives would have been very different.

So we were grateful for it as many others as well.


Those who speak ill of calamity and its affects on Lives,,usually have never experienced it in theirs.
Well spoken. Our 24 ft MH is small for the 2 of us and our pets. But others were grateful to crowd in with us until we could help them find a safe place.
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:


The frontal boundary is significant, but it is a weak front and Irene is big storm so Irene will be pushing the front around more than the other way around. The front is significant for another reason, it is connected to a jet streak which is forecast to strengthen very quickly over the next 36 hours. The 12z nam initializes a 70-80 kt jet in place over new england this morning, and shows a 160 kt jet streak exiting the northeast at hour 36, which is more typical of a strong winter storm. This jet will enhance precipitation and will help Irene maintain a very low central pressure, while vastly expanding the wind field (though the winds will be somewhat slower). All of this will help her maintain an impressive storm surge, in addition to the prolific amounts of rain. I wouldn't be surprised if the models were underplaying the amount of rain that will fall with this beast, and they are unanimously showing fairly widespread 10+ inches.


Tellin' ya.....its a nor'easter. :)
Quoting bappit:

From the NHC 11 AM discussion:

AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TURN ORTHEASTWARD [sic] THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

If it reaches the westerlies after 48 hours, that will be after it visits NYC--on Monday. On the outside chance that Irene still has any hurricane force winds by the time it reaches NYC, I expect they will be over water only.


Its a water, not a wind event......look at what crapped out NOLA. Water.
Quoting txag91met:
Kudos to Bill Reed (Texas A&M) and NHC for doing a great job on Irene. Gig'em!
And awesome job as always Dr. Masters!
Yup, they even named the basketball arena after him...
Quoting yonzabam:
If it continues going north, it'll go right up Chesapeake Bay. I've only read a fraction of the posts, but can't remember seeing any comments about what a storm going in there would do.



...cause a flood.
LinkWVLoopWAtl

just got hit with a vicious squall of showers in ecfl
Looks like between Rocky Mount, Edenton and Norfolk it is raining from 10-15 inches.
By Saturday morning, few people were even walking or driving. Transit fares and tolls were waived in evacuated areas. Officials hoped most residents would stay with family and friends, and for the rest the city opened nearly 100 shelters with a capacity of 71,000 people.

Link NYC closes transit system as Hurricane Irene nears
Has the blog slowed or did everybody get banned?
All Starbucks closed in NYC. Now this is getting serious. -- FLDewey

Has anyone seen BahaHurricane?
Quoting Chicklit:



you have your own blog now lol
1092. breald
It looks like the hurricane is further inland. Is that better for Southern New England, or does it not matter because of its size? Thanks