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Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:57 PM GMT on August 23, 2011

Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.

Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.

Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.

Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.

A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).


Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.

This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.

Angela

Earthquake Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Judging by the vigalence here on the blog constantly...even for those not quiet in the cone (some perhaps calling this over-vigilant)...no one here I imagine takes the their eye off the storm here....


And it's a good thing they don't. Growing up on the coast I had plenty experiences of, Oops they didn't see that one.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez... too lazy to pour it into a microwaveable dish... lol Bet u had a pop top can, too... lol .lol...

BTW, your soup should be in honor of TCI riders-out, so far at least....

Those wonderful little "thingys" Oh Yea, Fondu Pots that sit on a stand with candle under them are super for heating soup, chili, water etc. After days of cold, hot food is fantastic. No hurricanes, Just weeks without power from massive tornados & Ice storms! The big thing they were asking for here after the Joplin Tornado, Manual Can openers! Much better than a rock (or hammer if you're lucky)& a knife. Dont recommend but what you gonna do??? Great way to lose a finger!
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is now geting fun


I beg to differ =)
Quoting LakelandNana:
Can anyone explain the flattening on the west side of Irene, please? Is this the beginning of the turn? TIA


Look at this loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-ir4 .html

During the loop...click on the HDW-high check box...which shows the upper-level wind vectors on top. The big upper trough that has just left the US New England coast has left behind a cut-off upper low off the SE...the overall mass of this upper system perhaps impeding some of the outflow on the west side of Irene...giving some of the flattening appearance. But these winds are at the highest levels of the atmosphere and are not associated with the steering...the steering layers still indicate a WNW motion for Irene in the next several hours...currently still close to the NHC track forecast.
Water stays quite warm quite a way up the east coast. Anyone agree?

Link
Went NNW from 90 hr point to 96 hr point?

New center fix is to the northwest of the previous one. Could this be the turn towards the north that we've been waiting for?
i noted that this storm have move way off the forcast points its been moveing W for some time now looks like the nhc may need too move the track back W
Quoting LakelandNana:
Can anyone explain the flattening on the west side of Irene, please? Is this the beginning of the turn? TIA



Looks to be a weak upper level feature to it's west. Visible in Water Vapor Imagery as well.


That should be enough to take Irene to 95 kts / 110 mph at 2 a.m.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New center fix is to the northwest of the previous one. Could this be the turn towards the north that we've been waiting for?


I think the strengthening of Irene has led to the wobbling of the center...but the overall motion continues to be WNW. The turn needs to come soon, though according to the forecast.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You are seriously underestimating the destructive power of storm surges, and overestimating human ingenuity.


The problem here is that a lot of people confuse being prepared with being negative. So, when someone suggests that really bad things could happen in a hurricane, suggest a structure or system could fail, or some catastrophic event could occur, the person suggesting it is perceived as being “negative.”

The opposite of negative is being positive. It’s easiest to do that by just insisting that the event cannot occur, even in the face of concrete evidence to the contrary (e.g. from FEMA, New York emerg management, etc.). Also, it’s pretty easy to argue every detail of what might and might not occur.

Being positive is a reasonable strategy most of the time as catastrophic events are very rare. But sometimes these events do occur. The “positive” people are then shocked and surprised, and unfortunately without any plan whatsoever. Katrina cured some of that, but the lessons need to be learned over and over in new places.

Remix – nobody is saying the sky is falling. A catastrophic event in New York is indeed unlikely. It’s just that in the unlikely eventuality that it does occur, you might want to rethink how you might approach such a situation. Just saying…
Time: 05:05:30Z
Coordinates: 21.3833N 72.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.0 mb (~ 20.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,914 meters (~ 9,560 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44° at 83 knots (From the NE at ~ 95.4 mph)
Air Temp: 9.2°C* (~ 48.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 89 knots (~ 102.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 75 knots (~ 86.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
2514. Levi32
Irene is really strengthening her eyewall right now, and the eye is starting to become clearer. We may be looking at a major hurricane sooner rather than later.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Hearing quite a bit of thunder at this late hour on the east coast of Central Florida. That upper low on the WV imagery, also shows up as a coastal trof in the steering level, reference my last post, of northeast FL. That is helping to ignite nocturnal thunderstorm over the 85 degree Atlantic waters just to my east. Storms moving WWD. Yay!


Here in Indian Harbour Beach (moved from the Outer Banks of North Carolina this year), and the sky is lighting up and rumbling also... Looks like we're in for a fun night!

Best wishes to our Bahamas friends tonight thru Thursday, and for all my people at home on the Outer Banks of NC... well... I'm gonna stand on the beach Thursday and blow as hard as I can to keep this monster-to-be offshore.
2011AUG24 044500 6.3 941.1/ +0.9 /122.2 6.3 6.4 6.7 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF -3.96 -71.66 EYE 17 IR 21.16 72.34 COMBO
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Looks to be a weak upper level feature to it's west. Visible in Water Vapor Imagery as well.




There is also dry air over the central and western Bahamas and 10-15 kts of WSW shear.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New center fix is to the northwest of the previous one. Could this be the turn towards the north that we've been waiting for?



new center fix not out yet
This storm getting freaking insane! 963 mb? That's a HUGE drop from 969 mb.
2520. owntime
Good Night or Morning to all. I wish the best to all of those that may be in Irenes path.

Take Care.
Quoting Levi32:
Irene is really strengthening her eyewall right now, and the eye is starting to become clearer. We may be looking at a major hurricane sooner rather than later.




yup
2522. mrjr101
Quoting Tazmanian:
i noted that this storm have move way off the forcast points its been moveing W for some time now looks like the nhc may need too move the track back W


lmao, dude, it's just a 10-15 mile jog if that, if you see the last frame it looks like it will be right on track of the forecast point on the next frame.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Went NNW from 90 hr point to 96 hr point?



HWRF has shifted west, lets see if the GFDL stays the same on this run. If it does, thats bad news.
Quoting redux:


I don't know what to tell you. New York City is not New Orlean. not all cities have been built the same. the houses aren't built out of the plywood, and the roads aren't built on a few inches of gravel and a few inches of asphalt.

that foot of reinforced concrete slab under the asphalt is going to matter. when your drainage area is 100 percent impervious, you have places for this water to go.

hence the subway as the emergency spillway.


Ah ha! Here you go: A PDF of NYC's Hurricane evac zones. Look it over and feel free to repost to any all-of-Manhattan doomcasters that come along. That being said, flooding never would have been my main concern in the city, because you can move vertically away from that. But glass? Fallen glass everywhere. Flying glass and debris. All that. Saw it here firsthand - sofas thrown out of 26th floor windows by the wind, the whole nine yards. It can happen there too. So can civil unrest, lack of supplies, etc etc etc.
Glad you have faith in NYC's ability to withstand all that. That's cool. But it can't hurt to be prepared. That's the only point I'm trying to make.

Quoting MidwestGuy:
2011AUG24 044500 6.3 941.1/ +0.9 /122.2 6.3 6.4 6.7 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF -3.96 -71.66 EYE 17 IR 21.16 72.34 COMBO

Sorry, but do you have the link for these estimates? 
Lost them from last year. 
102 hr: going slight NNE.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New center fix is to the northwest of the previous one. Could this be the turn towards the north that we've been waiting for?


No matter where the fix is it's pretty evident from the past few IR frames that Irene is moving Due West.
ALERT!

Irene is starting to get off track. Shifting slightly to the west and looks like she is about to pass directly over Crooked Island if she continues the route

Link
Quoting kylejourdan2006:


You're right. The storm won't have two eyes. The only thing that could happen that is remotely similar to this is during the storm's more mature stages when it forms a second outer eyewall, which will then initiate an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle)...but Irene's eye and core stucture is too young for that right now...it's definitely just a dry air patch.


There have been 2 eye hurricanes before...

Sorry! Here's the link to the PDF:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurrica ne_map_english.pdf
Quoting Levi32:
Irene is really strengthening her eyewall right now, and the eye is starting to become clearer. We may be looking at a major hurricane sooner rather than later.


Pressure has been really low as well...once that eye is well-organized with deep convection...the convection will better mix down the flight level winds...and we will see much higher surface winds soon...it is even remotely possible she jumps from cat. 1 to minimal cat. 3 (115 mph) in one advisory...
Quoting wolftribe2009:
ALERT!

Irene is starting to get off track. Shifting slightly to the west and looks like she is about to pass directly over Crooked Island if she continues the route

Link


Crooked Island??? You mean Great Inagua Island?
Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:


Here in Indian Harbour Beach (moved from the Outer Banks of North Carolina this year), and the sky is lighting up and rumbling also... Looks like we're in for a fun night!

Best wishes to our Bahamas friends tonight thru Thursday, and for all my people at home on the Outer Banks of NC... well... I'm gonna stand on the beach Thursday and blow as hard as I can to keep this monster-to-be offshore.


Indeed. Keep posted to the NWS Melbourne... these guys have done an outstanding job over the past several years with regards to tropical cyclones. Currently stating 200-250 miles offshore, with squalls here on the coast which could gust to TS force. I live in Merritt Island, so not too far away. Of course we all know, things are subject to change, could be farther or closer.
Time: 05:08:30Z
Coordinates: 21.2833N 72.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,848 meters (~ 9,344 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 963.6 mb (~ 28.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 37° at 16 knots (From the NE at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C (~ 59.4°F)
Dew Pt: 10.9°C (~ 51.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 12 knots* (~ 13.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)

pressure keeps dropping but the winds actually went down from 100 to 90
114 hr. That's asking for a major over New Jersey...

Quoting Bluestorm5:
102 hr: going slight NNE.


please write the name of the model
Quoting totalamature:

Those wonderful little "thingys" Oh Yea, Fondu Pots that sit on a stand with candle under them are super for heating soup, chili, water etc. After days of cold, hot food is fantastic. No hurricanes, Just weeks without power from massive tornados & Ice storms! The big thing they were asking for here after the Joplin Tornado, Manual Can openers! Much better than a rock (or hammer if you're lucky)& a knife. Dont recommend but what you gonna do??? Great way to lose a finger!


Always have one of these, the P-38 can opener, available at Army surplus or good outdoors stores.

wouldn't the dvorak intensities make Irene a cat 4?
2539. Grothar
img src="">
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Look at this loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-ir4 .html

During the loop...click on the HDW-high check box...which shows the upper-level wind vectors on top. The big upper trough that has just left the US New England coast has left behind a cut-off upper low off the SE...the overall mass of this upper system perhaps impeding some of the outflow on the west side of Irene...giving some of the flattening appearance. But these winds are at the highest levels of the atmosphere and are not associated with the steering...the steering layers still indicate a WNW motion for Irene in the next several hours...currently still close to the NHC track forecast.

Thank you NCHurricane2009, your explanation and link were very helpful!
Category 3/4 near NYC at 120 hr.

Several 90kt flight level wind observations reported to the southeast of Irene's center.
Quoting mojofearless:


Ah ha! Here you go: A PDF of NYC's Hurricane evac zones. Look it over and feel free to repost to any all-of-Manhattan doomcasters that come along. That being said, flooding never would have been my main concern in the city, because you can move vertically away from that. But glass? Fallen glass everywhere. Flying glass and debris. All that. Saw it here firsthand - sofas thrown out of 26th floor windows by the wind, the whole nine yards. It can happen there too. So can civil unrest, lack of supplies, etc etc etc.
Glad you have faith in NYC's ability to withstand all that. That's cool. But it can't hurt to be prepared. That's the only point I'm trying to make.


They'll figure it out pretty quickly if/when the SHTF.
Quoting victoriahurricane:


There have been 2 eye hurricanes before...



Well...that is not amazing enough for me...I want to see a hurricane with two eyes wearing a pair of sunglasses...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Category 3/4 near NYC at 120 hr.



Intensity likely overdone.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

please write the name of the model
it's HWRF model...
2547. Ryuujin
21.2 N is basically west of the last center fix, isn't it?
Something wrong with GOES? or is it a blackout?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Category 3/4 near NYC at 120 hr.





poor new york
Wow...I'd definitely have to go back to NE NJ if this happened.

Quoting AllStar17:
Several 90kt flight level wind observations reported to the southeast of Irene's center.


that would be very bad!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Category 3/4 near NYC at 120 hr.


God forbid!
Quoting AllStar17:


Intensity likely overdone.
very possible. Maybe Category 1/2?
2554. Grothar
Quoting all4hurricanes:
wouldn't the dvorak intensities make Irene a cat 4?



By looking at it now, it is awfully strong. This could change a lot of things in the short and long term. Dangerous situation for the Bahamas right now
Little Inagua is getting worked. They are going to take a solid hit
If Irene hit Long Island / New England with a pressure of 960 mb or lower it would be the deepest since Hurricane Edna in 1954.

The HWRF tends to deepen hurricanes too much though.
2557. Seawall
Convection and Vorticity... Explained

Convection
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
There are many forms of convection, termed natural, forced, gravitational, granular, thermomagnetic, combustion, capillary action, as well as the Marangoni and Weissenberg effects. Due to its role in heat transfer, convection plays a role in the Earth's atmosphere, its oceans, and its mantle. Discrete convective cells in the atmosphere can be seen as clouds, with stronger convection resulting in thunderstorms. Convection also plays a role in stellar physics.

So, ergo, when someone says there is Convection, it means it's raining cats and dogs... Just my take.... LOL

VORTICITY
In the atmospheric sciences, vorticity is the rotation of air around a vertical axis. Vorticity is a vector quantity and the direction of the vector is given by the right-hand rule with the fingers of the right hand indicating the direction and curvature of the wind. When the vorticity vector points upward into the atmosphere, vorticity is positive; when it points downward into the earth it is negative. Vorticity in the atmosphere is therefore positive for counter-clockwise rotation (looking down onto the Earth's surface), and negative for clockwise rotation.

In the Northern Hemisphere cyclonic rotation of the atmosphere is counter-clockwise so is associated with positive vorticity, and anti-cyclonic rotation is clockwise so is associated with negative vorticity. In the Southern Hemisphere cyclonic rotation is clockwise with negative vorticity; anti-cyclonic rotation is counter-clockwise with positive vorticity.

So, when someone says the storm has Vorticity.. it means it's rotating like it should. Just plain old English speak... LOL
Quoting victoriahurricane:


There have been 2 eye hurricanes before...



Despite the appearance of two eyes, I insist they BOTH aren't eyes. The eye is the area of low pressure where the air is sinking rapidly to the surface. There wouldn't be one specific storm if there were actually two low pressure systems...they wouldn't allow each other to exist so near each other...

To assert the fact that the picture you posted of Wilma is also a dry air pocket, notice the curved dry air infiltration that curves to the east up and around the top of the actual eye of the storm...
2559. Levi32
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
New center fix is to the northwest of the previous one. Could this be the turn towards the north that we've been waiting for?



That would be good for Inagua, I though they were going to get creamed in a little bit.
Quoting ecupirate:
Its jogged west again.

The florida doom casters will be out in full force shortly....


Link
No matter how many times you try to explain the concept of a wobble in a developing hurricane's forward movement, they don't seem to get it.
mojofearless
\
Quoting mojofearless:


Ah ha! Here you go: A PDF of NYC's Hurricane evac zones. Look it over and feel free to repost to any all-of-Manhattan doomcasters that come along. That being said, flooding never would have been my main concern in the city, because you can move vertically away from that. But glass? Fallen glass everywhere. Flying glass and debris. All that. Saw it here firsthand - sofas thrown out of 26th floor windows by the wind, the whole nine yards. It can happen there too. So can civil unrest, lack of supplies, etc etc etc.
Glad you have faith in NYC's ability to withstand all that. That's cool. But it can't hurt to be prepared. That's the only point I'm trying to make.


I tried, you tried, and others too.. Oh well. I'm going to sleep well tonight ok with making an effort to do my little part...

Irene over NYC/Long Island as Category 3 at the end of HWRF run. I think HWRF may be too strong.



Irene's getting organized in a hurry!

Quoting ProgressivePulse:



That would be good for Inagua, I though they were going to get creamed in a little bit.


They still will....as will Little Inagua unfortunately.
That's a bad day. 

Outer west rain bands now affecting SE tip of Cuba. Irene heading due west at least for now. Watch out east coast and S FL.

Quoting Ryuujin:
21.2 N is basically west of the last center fix, isn't it?


And slightly south of the 11pm position from the NHC.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Something wrong with GOES? or is it a blackout?


Satellites eclipse this time of night this time of year.
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



Levi there a reason sats have stopped updating?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
That's a bad day. 



That's yesterday's run.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


And slightly south of the 11pm position from the NHC.


.1 degree
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:




well this is not good more W i think the nhc will change the track back W
Quoting Bluestorm5:
very possible. Maybe Category 1/2?


I'd say Category 1.
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



But Levi...isn't the upper low too shallow of a feature to really influence the steering?...I thought that upper low is not that deep down into the tropopause....

I can understand the deep-layered ridge nosing to the west helping the slight turn to the west we see...but that should be expected with lower-level pressure rises that always occurrs on the back side of upper troughs, right?
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



Levi was that a suprise or was that expected??

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Levi there a reason sats have stopped updating?

There's the normal blackout. 
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



Think Irene will get west of 78W for a while?
2580. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Levi there a reason sats have stopped updating?


NASA imagery is not updating. SSD is still current for me, up to 4:45UTC. I am not aware of what satellite blackouts we have now with GOES-13, if any.
2581. Grothar
Not a nice picture GFS model

img src="">
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That's yesterday's run.
No, it's today.
The further west this storm goes ups the chances of a mainland North Carolina hit. To say FL is in play is dumb. The NHC and models have a fix on this storm well. Expect a turn to the NW soon.
2584. Levi32
Quoting traumaboyy:


Levi was that a suprise or was that expected??


It's not too much of a surprise, as she was supposed to kind of round Hispaniola parallel to the coast, but it is more westerly motion than the NHC had forecast for her today. The key will be watching when the turn begins and if it agrees with the overwhelming model consensus.
2585. 34chip
Is there not a radar for the Bahama islands? I went to there Government web page and could not get the radar working.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Sorry, but do you have the link for these estimates? 
Lost them from last year. 
ADT. Click on Hurricane Irene and scroll down to the History File Listing.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Category 3/4 near NYC at 120 hr.

The likelihood of that happening could be null.

However, if it happened. All hell will break loose...
2588. 2ifbyC
Quoting EastTexJake:


Always have one of these, the P-38 can opener, available at Army surplus or good outdoors stores.



I always carry one that I brought back from 'Nam. One of the greater inventions!

Quoting Grothar:



By looking at it now, it is awfully strong. This could change a lot of things in the short and long term. Dangerous situation for the Bahamas right now


Situation for Bahamas has been lookin' pretty rough since yesterday...when Irene dodged Hispaniola to the north...and with such grand outflow and warm waters...what we are seeing now has been pretty imminent...bound to happen....
2590. emguy
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



I'm glad you finally made it official on here man ;) Been showing this for about an hour but folks are most likely to listen to you.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ADT. Click on Hurricane Irene and scroll down to the History File Listing.

I was actually looking for the FTP satellite estimates. 

Thanks anyways. 
Quoting AllStar17:


Crooked Island??? You mean Great Inagua Island?


yes sorry wrong island but that is correct. It is about to hit Great Inagua Island
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



Levi, I was noticing that upper Low near the SE coast a couple hours earlier, seemed to come out of nowhere. None of the models picked it up, and it just all of a sudden appeared on the WV. It appears to be dropping SW toward FL (actually enhancing nocturnal thunderstorm development over the nearshore Atlantic waters), what do you see as far as future implications for the interaction between this upper Low and Irene?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


But Levi...isn't the upper low too shallow of a feature to really influence the steering?...I thought that upper low is not that deep down into the tropopause....

I can understand the deep-layered ridge nosing to the west helping the slight turn to the west we see...but that should be expected with lower-level pressure rises that always occurrs on the back side of upper troughs, right?


I don't even see the low on the latest 00Z TWD.?
000
URNT12 KNHC 240530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/05:09:50Z
B. 21 deg 14 min N
072 deg 29 min W

C. 700 mb 2796 m
D. 77 kt
E. 305 deg 13 nm
F. 045 deg 91 kt
G. 306 deg 15 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 9 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3047 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1109A IRENE OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 92 KT SE QUAD 05:14:20Z
;
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



Could this move further west? Do you think that trough will pick Irene to the North?
2597. Levi32
If she passes over Inaguas (big island in the image) then we would have an issue, because look at the model tracks.

Irene clearly looks to be heading just north of west that high seems to be quite strong. I think we will start seeing a shift to the west in the track. This is my feeling anyway but it is also based on the direction Irene is heading now. I still think that Irene will hit in the North Carolina region but if it continues this movement South Carolina better watch out as well. The westward side of the forecast track actually does take it to South Carolina.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I was actually looking for the FTP satellite estimates. 

Thanks anyways. 

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 13879


This?
2600. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



How long is that high expected to stay moving west?
0z HWRF out to 87 is farther west than 18z so far.
She looks like she is finally really winding up. If I was in the Bahamas I would find high ground.
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:



Makes your earlier prediction of landfall in SE NC and not the outer banks more likely.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Looks to be a weak upper level feature to it's west. Visible in Water Vapor Imagery as well.




Thanks ProgressivePulse! Thought I needed new glasses after AllStar stated he did not see the flattening! Still have a lot to learn and really appreciate the help!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°14'N 72°29'W (21.2333N 72.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the W (260°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 91kts (From the NE at ~ 104.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
2606. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:
Not a nice picture GFS model

img src="">


Holy snap.
Quoting LakelandNana:


Thanks ProgressivePulse! Thought I needed new glasses after AllStar stated he did not see the flattening! Still have a lot to learn and really appreciate the help!


Anytime.
2608. Ryuujin
Quoting Levi32:


It's not too much of a surprise, as she was supposed to kind of round Hispaniola parallel to the coast, but it is more westerly motion than the NHC had forecast for her today. The key will be watching when the turn begins and if it agrees with the overwhelming model consensus.


I can't see most pictures, because of my iPad, but are you saying that the westward movement is because of a UL? And if do, how much longer do you feel it will persist westward and what longitude do we need to look for if Irene passes the models turn (ie @ what long does the models have her turning)
Talk about warm-core... according to the latest vortex message, the flight level temperature was 61 degrees at nearly 10,000 ft. T-shirt weather for sure, even up there. Wow!
2610. CCkid00
Quoting StarnzMet:
The further west this storm goes ups the chances of a mainland North Carolina hit. To say FL is in play is dumb. The NHC and models have a fix on this storm well. Expect a turn to the NW soon.


until the storm is ABOVE Florida, nothing is dumb! yes, the NHC usually has a good hold on things, but the NHC isn't God!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
She looks like she is finally really winding up. If I was in the Bahamas I would find high ground.


lol....right....a cave on high ground!!
2612. Dunkman
2613. hamla
looks like the bermuda high is moving west and the high over the gom is also moving west the trough over the nw isnt moving like they thought.if irene gets past 75 w long and stays below 23 n lat all bets are off.
yhis is just my thoughts
Quoting Levi32:


Holy snap.
The northeast are in for it the end of this week. I believe that's 90L in the CATL as a pretty decent cyclone as well.
2615. Ryuujin
Quoting Levi32:


Holy snap.


Wow why the holy snap? That's strong verbiage coming from you

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This?

Yes that's it. 
Thank you. 
Quoting Levi32:
If she passes over Inaguas (big island in the image) then we would have an issue, because look at the model tracks.



I dont see the whole picture just the top...
I admit i have a florida bias but the models are solid on their consensus and i believe in them for the 1-5 day forecast, cant remember a 1-2 day nhc forecast going very wrong, just a drunken wobble from irene imho, maybe she felt the earthquake too and got a little dizzy lol
2619. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Holy snap.



LOL. I've got worse ones. You want to see them. :) Wondered when you were going to come back on and explain the long westward movement. We threw enough bait there for you. Knew it had to be something not expected.
Just when you think the east trend is there, BAM, the HWRF shifts west, lol. The ECMWF will be intriguing tonight, although I expect a shift to the east with a landfall on Long Island.
Quoting Levi32:


Holy snap.


Explain!! Plz!!!
Quoting Ryuujin:


Wow why the holy snap? That's strong verbiage coming from you
STRONG New England hurricane.
Dry air is gone from the NW core.

This could really be trying to blow up.

2624. Levi32
The upper low off the SE US coast right now is not so much an influence on Irene as it is an indicator beacon of where the periphery of the ridge north of her is. The CIMSS steering maps show where the weakness is correctly, along 77-78W, but the question is how bulky the ridge is immediately north of the storm. Like I said, it won't be differing significantly from the tracks unless it moves over Inaguas. We will see.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°14'N 72°29'W (21.2333N 72.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the W (260°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 91kts (From the NE at ~ 104.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Quoting traumaboyy:


lol....right....a cave on high ground!!


Yup...Lot of islands in the Bahamas could be completely covered by a Cat 3-4 storm surge.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Explain!! Plz!!!
pretty strong hurricane heading for Long Island.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
2630. NCSCguy
Quoting Levi32:
And here's why Irene is moving almost due west during the last several hours:

Sorry if this has been asked already but im just starting to catch up to the recent posts. Levi, how do you think this ridging will affect our girl down there and her overall track? (Keep up the great work with the tropical tidbits btw. Watch it everytime it comes out.)
A pretty strong Jose on the 00z HWRF.

Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Talk about warm-core... according to the latest vortex message, the flight level temperature was 66 degrees at nearly 10,000 ft. T-shirt weather for sure, even up there. Wow!


This warm core is significant...it is why hurricanes do what they do...intensify...

For those that don't know...the warm core is a vertical shaft of warm air at the center of a tropical cyclone...created by tremendous latent heat released by the formation of the thickest clouds at the center. Because warm air expands...this shaft expands vertically upward...leading to a pressure rise on the top of the storm...

...When the high pressure on the storm top evacuates through outflow channels...then less air suddenly exists above you at the surface...creating the storm's central pressure drop. When the surface pressure drops...leading to higher winds....
2633. Ryuujin
Quoting Levi32:
The upper low off the SE US coast right now is not so much an influence on Irene as it is an indicator beacon of where the periphery of the ridge north of her is. The CIMSS steering maps show where the weakness is correctly, along 77-78W, but the question is how bulky the ridge is immediately north of the storm. Like I said, it won't be differing significantly from the tracks unless it moves over Inaguas. We will see.


She is getting closer and closer. Can't be more than 30 NM out off the coast of Inaguas
...IRENE STRENGTHENING...
2:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 21.3°N 72.6°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
2635. Levi32
Quoting Ryuujin:


Wow why the holy snap? That's strong verbiage coming from you
That's because it's not every day you get to see a Cat 1-2 hurricane on a model nailing New England and moving over eastern Long Island. This is a serious situation developing here if the track remains set up in this fashion. It's been a long time since New England has had one of these types of storms. The last one I believe was Gloria in 1985.
00
WTNT34 KNHC 240540
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Quoting philliesrock:
Just when you think the east trend is there, BAM, the HWRF shifts west, lol. The ECMWF will be intriguing tonight, although I expect a shift to the east with a landfall on Long Island.


What time should we expect this one to start?
Quoting Levi32:
The upper low off the SE US coast right now is not so much an influence on Irene as it is an indicator beacon of where the periphery of the ridge north of her is. The CIMSS steering maps show where the weakness is correctly, along 77-78W, but the question is how bulky the ridge is immediately north of the storm. Like I said, it won't be differing significantly from the tracks unless it moves over Inaguas. We will see.


It is pretty much guaranteed to go over Great Inagua or Little Inagua at this point.
Well, 11 pm NHC path on Weather Channel is showing western edge being Charlotte, NC... yep, Carolinas is not off the hook yet. But New England is soooo in for it.
Quoting CCkid00:


until the storm is ABOVE Florida, nothing is dumb! yes, the NHC usually has a good hold on things, but the NHC isn't God!



Exactly what I was talking about earlier. You either are new at following hurricanes or have never lived through the many I have that have changed their minds. How can anyone say anything about mother nature is out of the question?
Looks like its may be over Little Inagua...



This is from Gran Piedro... wish they would fire up the Holguin site so we could get a better look.
2642. scCane

This infrared really showcases how the eye has been bobbing up and down as it has moved west the past couple of hours.

New edit: Last frame shows a pin hole eye......
Quoting Levi32:
That's because it's not every day you get to see a Cat 1-2 hurricane on a model nailing New England and moving over eastern Long Island. This is a serious situation developing here if the track remains set up in this fashion. It's been a long time since New England has had one of these types of storms. The last one I believe was Gloria in 1985.


Bob 1991.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, 11 pm NHC path on Weather Channel is showing western edge being Charlotte, NC... yep, Carolinas is not off the hook yet. But New England is soooo in for it.


Hopefully not.
2645. Levi32
Vortex Data Message


000
URNT12 KNHC 240530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/05:09:50Z
B. 21 deg 14 min N
072 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2796 m
D. 77 kt
E. 305 deg 13 nm
F. 045 deg 91 kt
G. 306 deg 15 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 9 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3047 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23

N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1109A IRENE OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 92 KT SE QUAD 05:14:20Z
This brings up a model that had a 966 MB storm in the a location very close to where the storm now is. The GFDL.

Link
2647. Levi32
Quoting sullivanweather:


Bob 1991.


Good catch.
am out for the night
TWC just reported CAT 2 / 100mph / 966
Quoting snow2fire:


The problem here is that a lot of people confuse being prepared with being negative. So, when someone suggests that really bad things could happen in a hurricane, suggest a structure or system could fail, or some catastrophic event could occur, the person suggesting it is perceived as being “negative.”

The opposite of negative is being positive. It’s easiest to do that by just insisting that the event cannot occur, even in the face of concrete evidence to the contrary (e.g. from FEMA, New York emerg management, etc.). Also, it’s pretty easy to argue every detail of what might and might not occur.

Being positive is a reasonable strategy most of the time as catastrophic events are very rare. But sometimes these events do occur. The “positive” people are then shocked and surprised, and unfortunately without any plan whatsoever. Katrina cured some of that, but the lessons need to be learned over and over in new places.

Remix – nobody is saying the sky is falling. A catastrophic event in New York is indeed unlikely. It’s just that in the unlikely eventuality that it does occur, you might want to rethink how you might approach such a situation. Just saying…

Not Negative, Just thinking ahead. Like the cute little guys with the "Be prepared" motto. Our max so far is 17 days with no power, water etc in the dead of winter & Nobody laughed about the water supplies & canned food or little generator then:) Or the old wood stove in the shop where so many of us slept on sacks of feed:) 50 lb bags of dog & horse feed make really good beds! Took the back seat from our old van & Made a really nice bed for my 80 yr old mom. People died trying to drive to shelters! Totally unprepared because that "cant happen Here" Planning for a catistophic storm of any kind is very positive.
NHC forecasting 85 mph hurricane over NYC...

It's 5 days away, however.
2652. Ryuujin
Quoting Levi32:
Vortex Data Message


000
URNT12 KNHC 240530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/05:09:50Z
B. 21 deg 14 min N
072 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2796 m
D. 77 kt
E. 305 deg 13 nm
F. 045 deg 91 kt
G. 306 deg 15 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 9 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3047 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23

N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1109A IRENE OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 92 KT SE QUAD 05:14:20Z


What's the last bolded part, Levi? The M. C23
295 degrees?? is this correct?
2654. Levi32
Repost: We're looking for deviations from the expected track, which have not occurred yet, but may soon if the center tracks over Inaguas.

Note: New 966mb vortex is just about on top of the dropsonde icon in the image, so it didn't move due west from the last fix.

will shift west again.

Whats wrong with this picture.....

By looking at the sat images and air pressure, and the wobbles which almost definitely a result of strengthening.... I'd say this system is about to get a lot more impressive.

Still not sure what some are seeing in terms of the models being wrong. The only real deviations I've seen from the general consensus has been wobbles due to the system fairly rapidly becoming more organized, as opposed to a mean long term direction.
GFDL running yet?
Quoting Levi32:
That's because it's not every day you get to see a Cat 1-2 hurricane on a model nailing New England and moving over eastern Long Island. This is a serious situation developing here if the track remains set up in this fashion. It's been a long time since New England has had one of these types of storms. The last one I believe was Gloria in 1985.


Gloria was forecast to hit NC if I remember correctly. We got some wind and rain and she nailed the New England states.
2660. scCane
Reposted pinhole eye



New edit: having trouble getting it to show up here's the link

Link
Quoting Ryuujin:


What's the last bolded part, Levi? The M. C23


That's the shape and size of the eye...in this case "C' for circular and 23 for 23 nautical miles in width...
Hey Levi32
What are your thought on this?

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If I might propose a hypothesis for what is happening with Irene, and her jog to the west.

Bernoulli's Principle
For an inviscid flow, an increase in the speed of the fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in pressure.

I think that Irene may be responding to the gap between Hispaniola and Cuba in much the same way. That air between these two islands is moving much faster, than the air moving over the top of these islands. Thus, there's an area of lower pressure between the two islands, and her low pressure core is drawn towards this, much like a trough. The gap between the two islands, is in effect ... acting as a giant wing of sorts.

Any thoughts?
The Inaguas are getting the snot beat out of them right now, sitting in that eyewall MUST be absolutely brutal.
2664. Ryuujin
I'm out for the night! Take care all
Quoting ecupirate:
Whats wrong with this picture.....



shes already south of the predicted tracks...not good.
Quoting AllStar17:


It is pretty much guaranteed to go over Great Inagua or Little Inagua at this point.


Well...I for one see that even if this goes to Great Inagua...that is a SLIGHT deviation to the west of model consensus...

...my benchmark is if this thing looks like it gets close to Abaco Island...that is more like a significant shift to the left...
2667. Levi32
Quoting Ryuujin:


What's the last bolded part, Levi? The M. C23


C = Circular. 23 = 23 numerical mile-wide eye.
Irene only 30 miles or 5,346,226.4 centimeters due east of Inaguas. lol Let's see what happens...

Levi,

LOL

We keep tabs on the years since the last hurricane here in the Northeast the same way a lifer in prison etches the number of years served into the cell wall...
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Gloria was forecast to hit NC if I remember correctly. We got some wind and rain and she nailed the New England states.


Yepper. Different path from Irene until Cape Hatteras.

Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Gloria was forecast to hit NC if I remember correctly. We got some wind and rain and she nailed the New England states.


Gloria hit both. Cape Hatteras as 942 mb cane and Brookhaven, Long Island as a 961 mb cane.

A weather balloon was launched from Cape Hatteras in the eye, only the 4th time that has been done. And the last time I think. But I'm not sure.
Quoting sullivanweather:
Levi,

LOL

We keep tabs on the years since the last hurricane here in the Northeast the same way a lifer in prison etches the number of years served into the cell wall...


Which storm have you been counting the years from...Bob or Gloria?
GFDL: 6hrs
Quoting Levi32:
Repost: We're looking for deviations from the expected track, which have not occurred yet, but may soon if the center tracks over Inaguas.

Note: New 966mb vortex is just about on top of the dropsonde icon in the image, so it didn't move due west from the last fix.

Looking at satellite images, the eye seems to be moving more west toward that area of water between Little Inaguas and main Inaguas. Any thoughts?
90L up to 40%. Could become a tropical depression pretty soon.
2676. mrjr101
TWC just announced she's CAT 2, 100mph
I've been to quite a few islands in the Bahamas.

Man I'd be s--t'n bricks if I was on one of those flat little rocks tonight.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Looking at satellite images, the eye seems to be moving more west toward that area of water between Little Inaguas and main Inaguas. Any thoughts?


IMO its just a wobble and not a course change. It does seem that Irene may pass closer over Nassau now.
GFDL: 12hrs
2680. Grothar
Looks like western Cuba may get some bad weather if this stays west a little longer.

2681. Levi32
Quoting Hou77083:
Hey Levi32
What are your thought on this?

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If I might propose a hypothesis for what is happening with Irene, and her jog to the west.

Bernoulli's Principle
For an inviscid flow, an increase in the speed of the fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in pressure.

I think that Irene may be responding to the gap between Hispaniola and Cuba in much the same way. That air between these two islands is moving much faster, than the air moving over the top of these islands. Thus, there's an area of lower pressure between the two islands, and her low pressure core is drawn towards this, much like a trough. The gap between the two islands, is in effect ... acting as a giant wing of sorts.

Any thoughts?


An interesting theory, but the amount of land lining the gap is extremely tiny (just the two points of each island), and most of the flow is actually northwesterly, mostly passing over Cuba before reaching the channel between the islands. The geography there doesn't support the channeling of the wind like he's suggesting, even if it were directly out of the north. You would need an elongated barrier on both sides.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...I for one see that even if this goes to Great Inagua...that is a SLIGHT deviation to the west of model consensus...

...my benchmark is if this thing looks like it gets close to Abaco Island...that is more like a significant shift to the left...


Did you mean Abaco or Andros... Abaco is the northeastern most island in the Bahamas, just east of Grand Bahama Island. Andros is the largest one, ESE of Miami.

It has a long way to go to get to either.
decoded vortex message

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°14'N 72°29'W (21.2333N 72.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the W (260°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 91kts (From the NE at ~ 104.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I've been to quite a few islands in the Bahamas.

Man I'd be s--t'n bricks if I was on one of those flat little rocks tonight.


Amen!!
00z ECMWF is ready to go.

2686. emguy
Upper level low off the coast of the Carolinas has one of 2 impacts. 1.) Nothing, if it is sheared out and obsorbed by that digging trough, which would result in Irene maintaining a somewhat similar path. 2.) A southerly track. Perfect example would be a good one pattern wise, but a poor one geographically. In 1988, while departing the Yacatan, a cut off low was over Houston, TX, and Hurricane Gilbert gained lattitude due to it, but went south of that cutoff due to the established ridge over the storm. Similar pattern here, no diving, sweeping, clear the deck troughs, just and erosion of the ridge with a cutoff low wild card...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Which storm have you been counting the years from...Bob or Gloria?



I lived in The Bronx for Gloria. I was only 4 but I remember some of the storm; mostly losing the crab apple tree in front of our apartment. There were also trees down in the yard of my day-care.

I moved to Middletown, NY Dec '87 and was there for Bob in 1991. We got some tropical storm force winds on the backside of the storm and about four inches of rain but that's all.
GFDL 24hrs.

When you're waiting for a northerly turn, "wobbles" are more than just wobbles, they could possibly affect the entire future track of the storm! Long live wobblecasters! :D

I believe this wobble west was significant enough to shift the entire track of irene a 5-10 miles west.
2690. Levi32
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Looking at satellite images, the eye seems to be moving more west toward that area of water between Little Inaguas and main Inaguas. Any thoughts?


It's difficult to see very short-term motions of a developing eye on IR imagery, as the top of the eyewall is undergoing fluctuations, causing the center of the eye to not always be where the exact surface center is. We're kind of picking on insignificant details here, but we will just have to wait and see how long the WNW motion lasts and if the turn occurs where the models say it should. I've seen it happen both ways before.
Amateur here, but from what it looks like, the HWRF is almost a spot on match for the NWS predicted path. Though a shift from last nights run's of around this time when it was nailing Wilmington NC.
Any comments on this?

Also, one thing i've noticed from lurking here and other forums for the past few winters and hurricane seasons is that this far out, the models usually have a good general idea for where the storm will go this far out.
In the last few days we saw a massive shift east, sparing Florida, Georgia, and possibly even South Carolina the worst of it. What i've noticed is that most of the runs today were also east, but not as drastic. I originally had a hunch that the models would correct to the west a bit tomorrow, and seeing the length of Irene's western wobles i have more confidence in that, but for all i know tomorrow i'll find myself mistaken.

What are your thoughts on this, as i said, im just making educated guesses here, and as an amateur i dont know how educated those guesses are haha.
Why am I up? Anyway, live updates for the Euro are coming soon...
2693. dewfree
Irene slowed down watch out for alittle westward jog next 12 hours . still think fartherest to west track
most likely
I havent posted in two three years lol see ya
dew
Quoting Levi32:


It's difficult to see very short-term motions of a developing eye on IR imagery, as the top of the eyewall is undergoing fluctuations, causing the center of the eye to not always be where the exact surface center is. We're kind of picking on insignificant details here, but we will just have to wait and see how long the WNW motion lasts and if the turn occurs where the models say it should. I've seen it happen both ways before.
oh ok. Just hope these islanders are okay.
2695. Titoxd
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


Where did you get that?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Did you mean Abaco or Andros... Abaco is the northeastern most island in the Bahamas, just east of Grand Bahama Island. Andros is the largest one, ESE of Miami.

It has a long way to go to get to either.


**smack to the forehead**

yes...I meant ANDROS island...it that somehwat larger island toward SE Florida...
GFDL 30hrs:
Curiosity here, but that upper Low off the SE US coast, didn't that stem from a MCS over the Gulf Stream on Monday morning? I know it was a huge cluster, stretching from SC to NE FL... from which, an outflow boundary propogated SW into central FL, sparked a Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Brevard County, along with a Flood Advisory in the afternoon. Hmmm...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
GFDL: 12hrs


Very interested to see this run
Quoting Levi32:


An interesting theory, but the amount of land lining the gap is extremely tiny (just the two points of each island), and most of the flow is actually northwesterly, mostly passing over Cuba before reaching the channel between the islands. The geography there doesn't support the channeling of the wind like he's suggesting, even if it were directly out of the north. You would need an elongated barrier on both sides.


I agree with you completely but I also think that the affects of land masses on the movement (and intensity)of these storms is poorly understood.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


**smack to the forehead**

yes...I meant ANDROS island...it that somehwat larger island toward SE Florida...


If it went that far south and west that is a GINORMOUS shift in track. That would guarantee a landfall in GA/SC/or S. NC
Quoting Levi32:


An interesting theory, but the amount of land lining the gap is extremely tiny (just the two points of each island), and most of the flow is actually northwesterly, mostly passing over Cuba before reaching the channel between the islands. The geography there doesn't support the channeling of the wind like he's suggesting, even if it were directly out of the north. You would need an elongated barrier on both sides.

If you have a hurricane there with current and past trajectory the geological setup suggest to influence the track accordingly.

As predictors

The geography of the Hebert Boxes is the key to their use as predictors. The boxes are located such that hurricanes have plenty of space to intensify after passing through them, and the prevailing winds tend to push them towards Florida. Conversely, if they pass outside the box they are either too close to land to intensify much, or are far enough away from land that they are more subject to the influences of steering winds and other atmospheric conditions. These tend to either push the hurricane more westward across the Caribbean Sea towards the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, or into the Gulf of Mexico where they threaten Mexico and the Gulf Coast states, or eastwards causing them to curve outwards over the Atlantic and miss landfall altogether.[1]
While these boxes provide an indication that a hurricane may threaten South Florida, a hurricane does not have to pass through one to strike there, as were the case with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Andrew, though the latter did skirt the edges of the eastern box. Additionally, a hurricane which does pass through a Hebert Box can very easily miss Florida, or indeed any landfall entirely.[3] Hebert himself acknowledged that the boxes are not a guarantee of hurricane landfall either way, but cautions that if a hurricane passes through one, "really, really pay attention. We worry plenty in August and September when one goes through that box, and we have a certain comfort level when one misses the box." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_box
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


**smack to the forehead**

yes...I meant ANDROS island...it that somehwat larger island toward SE Florida...


Well, it is 2am... so it wouldnt surprise me.
Quoting sullivanweather:



I lived in The Bronx for Gloria. I was only 4 but I remember some of the storm; mostly losing the crab apple tree in front of our apartment. There were also trees down in the yard of my day-care.

I moved to Middletown, NY Dec '87 and was there for Bob in 1991. We got some tropical storm force winds on the backside of the storm and about four inches of rain but that's all.

I went through Gloria in Toms River NJ. Took out lots.of pines.
Quoting philliesrock:
Why am I up? Anyway, live updates for the Euro are coming soon...


Keep 'em comin'!
Quoting AllStar17:


If it went that far south that is a GINORMOUS shift in track. That would guarantee a landfall in GA/SC/or S. NC


That is what I mean...if it does start getting toward the east coast of Andros...yes it would harken back to the models yesterday that said going into GA/SC/NC...
2707. 7544
hmmm a sw wobble now
According to Wikipedia,
Irene's ACE is currently about 5.38, nearly twice as high as Bert, the second-place holder (2.93).
The effects of an upper level trough over the warm Atlantic waters. More than typical coverage for a summer early A.M. that's for sure.



Link
Quoting 7544:
hmmm a sw wobble now


Hurricanes Wobble...
Which are the two models running right now?
The animated gif of the 24-hour MIMIC loop at CIMSS is fun to watch (the 90 degree change in apparent path of the eye).

Link
Quoting bballerf50:
Which are the two models running right now?


GFDL and ECWMF
2714. emguy
Quoting 7544:
hmmm a sw wobble now


If there is one thing that has not occurred...it is this.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


GFDL and ECWMF


Thanks! Can you provide the latest one each please? I am in Bimini and worrying about the westward-ness...
In my opinion...if Irene passes to the west of Long Island (in the Bahamas) and Young Island...that would be a significant deviation.
Quoting emguy:


If there is one thing that has not occurred...it is this.


not recnently... lolzzzz
SSD states... Irene is a major hurricane; but these are only estimates, and are signs of Irene strengthening more, eventually reaching major hurricane status (IMO)
24/0545 UTC 21.3N 72.4W T5.5/5.5 IRENE

Here is ADT
1. SSD
2011AUG24 054500 6.3 941.1/ +0.9 /122.2 6.3 6.4 6.9 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF -5.36 -73.30 EYE -99 IR 21.33 72.57 SPRL

2. CIMSS
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2011 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 21:12:01 N Lon : 72:20:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 954.1mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : -3.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.0 degrees

Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I went through Gloria in Toms River NJ. Took out lots.of pines.



There's really nice pine forest there in New Jersey too.

0z Euro is 6 hours faster than 12z but in the same position at 78 hours.
Quoting bballerf50:


Thanks! Can you provide the latest one each please? I am in Bimini and worrying about the westward-ness...


I dont have the ECWMF link, philliesrock is covering that I think, and the latest GFDL is on the previous page, and ill post the next one as it loads :)
Quoting philliesrock:
0z Euro is 6 hours faster than 12z but in the same position at 78 hours.


post pics? plz and thanks :)
Quoting sullivanweather:



There's really nice pine forest there in New Jersey too.



Spend many of my days out here. Im heading out to LBI if Irene pays a visit.
2724. Dunkman
GFDL has Irene going directly into NYC at 110 kts...that would be something.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:
The animated gif of the 24-hour MIMIC loop at CIMSS is fun to watch (the 90 degree change in apparent path of the eye).

Link


Wow...so GLAD you posted this...I think all should check it out if you are still on here...

First...she wobbles SW toward Hispaniola a little...then she wobbled back NW toward the Turks and Caicos...then she wobbled back SW all of the sudden for no reason...then she wobbled back west at the end of the loop....

Smoothing out all the wobbles yields a general WNW track...more westerly than northerly...so we may see a slight shift in the models...although checking the 2 AM update on the wunderground page on Irene models looks to be the same so far model-wise...
Evening everyone

Quoting AussieStorm:

Anti Cyclone map.


Quoting AussieStorm:

Anticyclone is creating SW'erly shear over Irene, AC is displaced SW of Irene as you can see here.



no. That is the shear direction, not the upper level wind direction. There's a big difference and the shear map does not accurately show where the anticyclone is centered.
ADT from SSD estimates Irene to be at 941mbs with 122 knot winds.
Nothing seems to be steering Irene to the North. Am I right on this.
GFDL 42hrs:

CDO is about to cover her eye again...
Did gfdl move east west or stay the same as opposed to it's previous run?
60 hours:

GFDL

00z

2735. Levi32
Quoting Dunkman:
GFDL has Irene going directly into NYC at 110 kts...that would be something.



Would be 88kts after a 20% reduction from the 900mb winds shown there. That's still bad.
GFDL 72hrs:

2737. Grothar
Some steering currents.

2738. scCane
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wow...so GLAD you posted this...I think all should check it out if you are still on here...

First...she wobbles SW toward Hispaniola a little...then she wobbled back NW toward the Turks and Caicos...then she wobbled back SW all of the sudden for no reason...then she wobbled back west at the end of the loop....

Smoothing out all the wobbles yields a general WNW track...more westerly than northerly...so we may see a slight shift in the models...although checking the 2 AM update on the wunderground page on Irene models looks to be the same so far model-wise...

It's really hard to track on the infrared what with the eye constantly shrinking and bouncing up and down as she moves w/wnw
I'm going to sleep now... hope Bahamas and other islands are going through this storm ok.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
CDO is about to cover her eye again...


Indeed... also appears to becoming much more symmetrical.
Quoting Levi32:


Would be 88kts after a 20% reduction from the 900mb winds shown there. That's still bad.


That's a pretty serious hurricane for the NE folks.

Would be something if a hurricane actually hit the NE.
2744. Levi32
Cape Hatteras scraper and ridiculously strong east of Virginia.

2745. Grothar
In case no one noticed...Irene is back to cat. 2 as of the 2 AM advisory...good night all....
2748. NCSCguy
I'm still not totally sold on these model runs, anyone else agree?
00z ECMWF is east of its 12z run, but is still dumping a huge amount of rain over the NE.

964mb hurricane just south of central LI by 114 hours.

Source: Paid sites
Quoting Bobbyweather:
According to Wikipedia,
Irene's ACE is currently about 5.38, nearly twice as high as Bert, the second-place holder (2.93).


I search the Irene wiki but no word of ACE? What does ACE stand for?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(201 1)
2751. Grothar
could be interesting in the morning.


Quoting mcmurray02:


Indeed... also appears to becoming much more symmetrical.


I was noticing that too. And the longer she hangs out down there, the more things can change as far as direction/intensity, the whole nine yards.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


I search the Irene wiki but no word of ACE? What does ACE stand for?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(201 1)


Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Quoting Levi32:
Cape Hatteras scraper and ridiculously strong east of Virginia.

Sweet baby Jesus. LOL.
Atlantic Ridge even more to the West! Texas ridge retreating west! East coast and S FL, get ready... Pretty intense.

At 21Z:


At 00Z:


At 03Z:


Current at 06Z:
Quoting Grothar:
could be interesting in the morning.




That ridge appears quite strong Grothar.


Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


I search the Irene wiki but no word of ACE? What does ACE stand for?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(201 1)

See the 2011AHS site.
Quoting Levi32:


Would be 88kts after a 20% reduction from the 900mb winds shown there. That's still bad.


I'm still trying to figure out why the Euro/HWRF/GFDL threesome continue to call for a Category 4 brushing the Outer Banks and Category 2 at landfall in the NE. Even when you look at the upper air charts they don't paint a picture of perfect conditions. And there will almost certainly be moderate SW-erly shear imparted on Irene by the approaching shortwaves.
102hrs:


has there been a non scary model run in the past 24 hours?
00z ECMWF for Atlantic City

SUN 12Z 28-AUG 22.1 17.0 973 92 97 1.67 555 578

Bold is MSLP and 3 hour QPF
Quoting alvarig1263:
Atlantic Ridge even more to the West! Texas ridge retreating west! East coast and S FL, get ready... Pretty intense.

At 21Z:


At 00Z:


At 03Z:


Current at 06Z:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8dlm4.GIF


now I think this is sign that is going to move north
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php ?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=
the ridge out to the SE
is shifting to the west to pick up Irene
Could you imagine a 925mb cane sitting here?

Quoting Grothar:
could be interesting in the morning.




Yes, indeed. Not the right placing for a trof if you want to turn it out to sea. I am surprised to see that it flattened that TX ridge as much as it did. I wonder if the NHC is perhaps re-evaluating their track for the 5am package?!?
atmosweather

Is that a new avatar?
Quoting mcmurray02:


Accumulated Cyclone Energy
ty
2767. SykKid
im hoping that irene comes here to nova scotia :))
Somewhere, Bastardi is dancing in his room alone, wishcasting to himself...
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yes, indeed. Not the right placing for a trof if you want to turn it out to sea. I am surprised to see that it flattened that TX ridge as much as it did. I wonder if the NHC is perhaps re-evaluating their track for the 5am package?!?


This isn't much of a big deal, the original longwave was always going to flatten out and lift out while the subtropical ridge builds W-ward slightly. Its the series of shortwave impulses moving along the mean trough that will turn Irene N-ward. There is literally a 5% chance of Irene going any further W than 77.5W.
Quoting Grothar:
could be interesting in the morning.




Appears that not only has the weakness closed some, but shifted further west as the ridge builds in from the Atlantic some.
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


now I think this is sign that is going to move north
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php ?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4& ;zoom=&time=
the ridge out to the SE
is shifting to the west to pick up Irene


The ridge will steer Irene right into the Eastern Seaboard with the Atlantic ridge building so quickly and the Texas ridge moving west. Only a trough can pick up a system, not steer it like a ridge can. If the trough is strong enough it will push the atlantic ridge back and pull Irene with it, but if Irene moves to slowly, gets too big, or the trough doesn't come deep enough or strong enough to pick it up, then we're going to have a whole different scenario developing over the next 48 hours.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yes, indeed. Not the right placing for a trof if you want to turn it out to sea. I am surprised to see that it flattened that TX ridge as much as it did. I wonder if the NHC is perhaps re-evaluating their track for the 5am package?!?


I would think so. Alot has changed the last 6 hours
With the strength of the ridge , as well as the
Strength of Irene
2773. 7544
nw now
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Could you imagine a 925mb cane sitting here?



There was an analysis of a severe hurricane that hit Massachusetts in 1635. They investigated accounts, and dug up layers of plant material and sand and dated them and figured out that a 938 mb hurricane hitting near the RI/MA border and exiting just south of Plymouth was the best fit for the hurricane. Whatever it was it was fearsomely strong, with higher tides in the area than where the 1938 and 1815 hurricanes hit. Could have had a 925 pressure there off the mid-Atlantic.
Quoting AllStar17:
atmosweather

Is that a new avatar?


It is indeed lol I was getting tired of looking at a blank grey portrait next to my handle :p
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Could you imagine a 925mb cane sitting here?



That is now 2 separate models showing that strength in that time frame. Not something to be discounted IMO.
Quoting atmosweather:


It is indeed lol I was getting tired of looking at a blank grey portrait next to my handle :p


LOL
2778. SykKid
i am hope that it come visit me in nova scotia :) it will be very weak by time it make it all the way here.

:D
2779. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:


I'm still trying to figure out why the Euro/HWRF/GFDL threesome continue to call for a Category 4 brushing the Outer Banks and Category 2 at landfall in the NE. Even when you look at the upper air charts they don't paint a picture of perfect conditions. And there will almost certainly be moderate SW-erly shear imparted on Irene by the approaching shortwaves.


They do seem a bit overdone. However, the global models all have consistently deepened the cyclone right through its pass through or close to the outer banks. It could be that in the lack of a strong longwave moving in from the west, that the benign weakness west of the storm allows for more phasing, and thus perhaps an influx of baroclinic energy that helps instead of hinders the storm. We'll see, but I still expect weakening before it passes the outer banks.
I don't believe those pressures near NC. The water temps are only 82 south of Cape Hatteras and in the 70s to the north.
Levi - What do you make about the feature off the South Carolina coast tonight? Seems to me to be some cutoff low forming.
Quoting Levi32:


We'll see, but I still expect weakening before it passes the outer banks.


Good to hear
Quoting atmosweather:


It is indeed lol I was getting tired of looking at a blank grey portrait next to my handle :p


LOL...Good to finally see what you look like dude!!
Quoting alvarig1263:
Atlantic Ridge even more to the West! Texas ridge retreating west! East coast and S FL, get ready... Pretty intense.

At 21Z:


At 00Z:


At 03Z:


Current at 06Z:


Dude give it up, it's NOT coming to S FL. Nothing is changing at the 5am package. If anything it will shift to the east.
AL, 09, 2011082406, , BEST, 0, 213N, 725W, 95, 965, HU

High end CAT 2
Quoting atmosweather:


I'm still trying to figure out why the Euro/HWRF/GFDL threesome continue to call for a Category 4 brushing the Outer Banks and Category 2 at landfall in the NE. Even when you look at the upper air charts they don't paint a picture of perfect conditions. And there will almost certainly be moderate SW-erly shear imparted on Irene by the approaching shortwaves.
yep, agreed
Quoting traumaboyy:


LOL...Good to finally see what you look like dude!!


Agreed. Atmos - You look really good. lol
Quoting StarnzMet:


Dude give it up, it's NOT coming to S FL. Nothing is changing at the 5am package. If anything it will shift to the east.


Just making observations... sheesh ;-)
Quoting Bobbyweather:
AL, 09, 2011082406, , BEST, 0, 213N, 725W, 95, 965, HU

High end CAT 2


Where did you get that?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Agreed. Atmos - You look really good. lol



I Didn't Say that!!
Quoting Levi32:


They do seem a bit overdone. However, the global models all have consistently deepened the cyclone right through its pass through or close to the outer banks. It could be that in the lack of a strong longwave moving in from the west, that the benign weakness west of the storm allows for more phasing, and thus perhaps an influx of baroclinic energy that helps instead of hinders the storm. We'll see, but I still expect weakening before it passes the outer banks.


I mean, if Irene really were to blow up further in size (possible if the upper level high tracks along on top of it the next couple of days as forecast) then your theory could come into play. It does happen on occasion. But I would say that's more likely with a storm that approaches with a 945-955 mb pressure, not with a pressure already below 935 mb. I don't remember the last hurricane ever to be that intense that close to the Outer Banks. Even the 1938 LIE only bottomed out at 938 mb, and that was well before it reached the area.
2792. SykKid
Irene appears to be struggling again now
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


Where did you get that?

There are several sites to get these, but I'll tell you what I use.
Link
2794. Levi32
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Levi - What do you make about the feature off the South Carolina coast tonight? Seems to me to be some cutoff low forming.


Yeah. It doesn't seem to be a significant influence on Irene for the moment, but is serving as more of an indicator of where the western periphery of the ridge north of Irene is.
2795. emguy
Quoting atmosweather:


This isn't much of a big deal, the original longwave was always going to flatten out and lift out while the subtropical ridge builds W-ward slightly. Its the series of shortwave impulses moving along the mean trough that will turn Irene N-ward. There is literally a 5% chance of Irene going any further W than 77.5W.


But there was no account for the cut off low south of the Carolinas. Which is the wild card right now. It's not only enhancing the breakdown of the cutoff ride, it is currently blocking the Carolina escape route and could invoke something further west. It does not match the model scheme in any fashion right now, but it may shear out with the next trough (unlikely though based on current structure and movement)/ Otherwise, the picture changes, even if it only means it swerves over FL and imparts a NNW motion to Irene into the Carolinas later on. Mean time, with this ULL to the north, it will slide south of it if it does not do either of these. Right now, the pattern has become more concerning further south...despite the models.
2796. Levi32
Alright I'm off to bed. We shall see what tomorrow brings. Goodnight all.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

There are several sites to get these, but I'll tell you what I use.
Link


Link didnt work.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Levi - What do you make about the feature off the South Carolina coast tonight? Seems to me to be some cutoff low forming.


I will say one thing about this weak ULL...it gives a pretty good idea of the furthest west Irene can make it before its turn to the north. That is exactly where the weakness in between the two ridges is.
2799. SykKid
what are peoples thoughts on irene possibly impacting SFL
Quoting traumaboyy:


LOL...Good to finally see what you look like dude!!


Quoting cchsweatherman:


Agreed. Atmos - You look really good. lol


Hahaha well thanks! Can't hide myself forever now can I? Lol.
Quoting Levi32:
Alright I'm off to bed. We shall see what tomorrow brings. Goodnight all.


Sleep well Levi thanks for the good work again.
2802. Hugo7
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Levi - What do you make about the feature off the South Carolina coast tonight? Seems to me to be some cutoff low forming.


Looks like a low from the front that just passed that did get cut off. Could be the straw that pushes iren to fl.
Quoting emguy:


But there was no account for the cut off low south of the Carolinas. Which is the wild card right now. It's not only enhancing the breakdown of the cutoff ride, it is currently blocking the Carolina escape route and could invoke something further west. It does not match the model scheme in any fashion right now, but it may shear out with the next trough (unlikely though based on current structure and movement)/ Otherwise, the picture changes, even if it only means it swerves over FL and imparts a NNW motion to Irene into the Carolinas later on. Mean time, with this ULL to the north, it will slide south of it if it does not do either of these. Right now, the pattern has become more concerning further south...despite the models.


Thank you! All I've been sayings simply is FL is not out of the woods yet, and for floridians to keep watching Irene until it's gone, but NO everyone is always complaining at me and reemphasizing that it's not coming to FL. At least someone else agrees it can all change in the final hour. Just sayin...
Quoting Levi32:
Alright I'm off to bed. We shall see what tomorrow brings. Goodnight all.


Have a great night!
LEVI,
I don't understand what would cause it to weaken before getting to the OBX. (Sat. 8pm track has it over my house). The water along the coast is mid 70's. The Gulf Stream is 35-40 miles off the coast and temp is mid 80's. This track is in the cooler coastal waters but the storm will be blowing the warmer surface water ahead of itself (Something I call the Dynamo Effect) so instead of mid 70's the water temp is in the mid 80's. I saw this during Ophelia 0n 2005. Although a minimal hurricane it intensified briefly as it approached off Georgia for no apparent reason. I discussed with Dr. Masters at the time.
Quoting SykKid:
what are peoples thoughts on irene possibly impacting SFL


If things come together, with the ridges and impending trough within the next 48 hours it could happen. But at this point it's an outlier idea.
Quoting alvarig1263:
Atlantic Ridge even more to the West! Texas ridge retreating west! East coast and S FL, get ready... Pretty intense.

At 21Z:


At 00Z:


At 03Z:


Current at 06Z:


what do these mean for south florida
Quoting SykKid:
what are peoples thoughts on irene possibly impacting SFL

Impacting? Or going over it into the GOM? Impact i think is a likely, to what extend will be seen.
Quoting SykKid:
what are peoples thoughts on irene possibly impacting SFL
possibly tropical storm force winds, most likely just TS force gusts. Some rain too. Shouldn't be too bad, unless Irene decides to continue to defy the track forecast.
Quoting oceanblues32:


what do these mean for south florida


It simply means that the ridges are moving west a little more then expected a few hours ago when the models we're run and Irene could track somewhat more to the West closer to FL and the east coast in general. But we have to see how the ridges hold for the next few hours, and if any wild cards come into play.
2812. Hugo7
Quoting alvarig1263:


Thank you! All I've been sayings simply is FL is not out of the woods yet, and for floridians to keep watching Irene until it's gone, but NO everyone is always complaining at me and reemphasizing that it's not coming to FL. At least someone else agrees it can all change in the final hour. Just sayin...


I said a few times yesterday that it was already out of the models range. The storm is already further south than was predicted in the models.
2813. SykKid
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Impacting? Or going over it into the GOM? Impact i think is a likely, to what extend will be seen.


Is it possible it could track into the GOM and affect Texas
Looks like Irene's making a stride northwestwards...
Link
Quoting Hugo7:


I said a few times yesterday that it was already out of the models range. The storm is already further south than was predicted in the models.


Exactly. If it's till south of 23N when it reaches 75W, then we're gonna have a problem. IMO
2816. SykKid
:O
Quoting SykKid:


Is it possible it could track into the GOM and affect Texas


With a large ridge just over western Texas and the GOM, it is not likely that Irene could penetrate into the GOM. If it was to defy the forecast I think it could only go as far west as 80W.
2818. 34chip
Looks to me as if its back to moving WNW.
We have hurricane Irene on our weatherwunderground.com forecast for Greensboro, NC http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/ge tForecast?query=zmw:27401.1.99999
Quoting emguy:


But there was no account for the cut off low south of the Carolinas. Which is the wild card right now. It's not only enhancing the breakdown of the cutoff ride, it is currently blocking the Carolina escape route and could invoke something further west. It does not match the model scheme in any fashion right now, but it may shear out with the next trough (unlikely though based on current structure and movement)/ Otherwise, the picture changes, even if it only means it swerves over FL and imparts a NNW motion to Irene into the Carolinas later on. Mean time, with this ULL to the north, it will slide south of it if it does not do either of these. Right now, the pattern has become more concerning further south...despite the models.


It's not like it's a strong and stationary ULL though. It's actually more like an inverted upper trough created in the wake of the mean trough lifting out in advance of the series of shortwaves to the NW of it. Either the upper ridge to the E builds back in slightly and obliterates it, or it is sheared away by the shortwaves before Irene makes it that far.
2821. SykKid
its eye is clouding over again
Quoting alvarig1263:


Exactly. If it's till south of 23N when it reaches 75W, then we're gonna have a problem. IMO

what kind of problem could it be for south florida dt lauderdale here!
Quoting Jackp0t789:
Looks like Irene's making a stride northwestwards...
Link


Appears she may have ingested some dry air - note the eye elongation at the end of the loop.
Quoting SykKid:
its eye is clouding over again


Yes it is. It'll be a little harder for us to track visually.
2825. emguy
Quoting alvarig1263:


Thank you! All I've been sayings simply is FL is not out of the woods yet, and for floridians to keep watching Irene until it's gone, but NO everyone is always complaining at me and reemphasizing that it's not coming to FL. At least someone else agrees it can all change in the final hour. Just sayin...


I am realizing all the spelling errors I am having with new smart phone, but I am glad you understood what I was saying. Mean time, me plus smart phone touch screen equals grammar and spelling nightmare due to auto text. Swear to god, type too fast and the thing has a serious and sarcastic sense of humor. Either way, the cutoff low south of the Carolinas is something serious to watch folks. A.) It's either gonna aid the storm more westerly than expected, B.) shear out into the next trough and allow the storm follow the model path, or C.) remain in place and shear Irene herself. With her established ridge in place, I'd go with A or B. Florida should take note of A and consider a possible surprise considering the pattern.
Quoting SykKid:


Is it possible it could track into the GOM and affect Texas


It's very not likely. But this storm is controlled by Mother Nature and she will do what she wants,when she wants, and how she wants. She does not listen to computer models. But this is "most likely" a S.Fla./ East Coast event.
The longer Irene takes to intensify the further south it will stay. Once it intensifies further it will make its turn to the north. That's pretty much why it is a bit further south than some might have expected, because to this point it has also been weaker than some models depicted. However now that it is becoming much better organized, it should be much more effected by upper level steering patterns. Overall I think a slight, but not major western adjustment will be made to the forecasts.... Florida is definitely not out of the woods, there's still something like a 25% chance the hurricane ends up much further west... but then again that's only a 25% chance. The models probably have generally the right idea, albeit not exact but the general idea of bringing the system up north near or into the Carolina coastline then into the northern mid-Atlantic/New England states.

2828. emguy
Quoting SykKid:


Is it possible it could track into the GOM and affect Texas


No.
Quoting oceanblues32:

what kind of problem could it be for south florida dt lauderdale here!


Well depending on how far west Irene would deviate would influence what effects if any would be felt. If it deviated all the way to 80W then you'd have the eye passing right over you. But if it passed some miles offshore then we could still be talking about hurricane force winds but probably nothing too major. But if everything goes as currently planned S FL should have little to no effects from Irene. I'm over in Naples so I'm certainly not expecting a direct landfall over here, but just seeing how close she'll really get.
She's following the NHC track nicely. Knock off the wishcasting west. People get confused. Irene's going the NHC track if you live near Wilmington on north pay attention, anywhere south watch the show.
2831. 34chip
Looks like she is back on track.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NANMADOL (T1111)
15:00 PM JST August 24 2011
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (985 hPa) located near 16.1N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in south quadrant
100 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.2N 127.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 18.3N 127.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 19.7N 126.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting Grothar:
could be interesting in the morning.




grothar,what is your interpretation of that map u just posted?
Quoting alvarig1263:


Yes it is. It'll be a little harder for us to track visually.

Could it be that its undergoing an eyewall replacement?
2835. 34chip
US National Weather Service Key West Florida

At 2:00 am Wednesday, the eye of Hurricane Irene was located about 400 miles to the southeast of Nassau, Bahamas. This position is also about 575 miles east-southeast of Key Largo. Irene is moving towards the west-northwest near 9 mph. A gradual turn towards the northwest is expected today, along with an increase in forward speed. On this forecast path, the core of Hurricane Irene will move across the southeastern and central Bahamas today and the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. At its closest point of approach on Thursday morning, the eye of Irene should remain about 250 miles east of Key Largo. There is high confidence in the track forecast during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 mph, making Irene a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irene is expected to continue to intensify while moving through the Bahamas, and the official forecast brings Irene to major hurricane (category 3) strength by later today or early Thursday. The Florida Keys remain outside of the average forecast error cone. According to Monroe County Emergency Management, no protective actions are planned at this time. Residents and visitors in the Florida Keys should continue to monitor Hurricane Irene. Our staff meteorologists will monitor this situation around the clock from our forecast office in Key West.
Looking at the infrared imagery I don't think the eye is clouding over due to dry air but actually because she might be starting an EWRC. Too bad RECON isn't in there to confirm, but the eye has been shrinking for the last few hours, from 35 miles in diameter earlier in the evening to 15-20 miles. You can also see where the presence of two wind maximums could be with the strong convection banding around the southern semicircle about 60-80 miles away from the center.
Quoting StarnzMet:
She's following the NHC track nicely. Knock off the wishcasting west. People get confused. Irene's going the NHC track if you live near Wilmington on north pay attention, anywhere south watch the show.


exactly. I see this every hurricane people start following the wobbles instead of the mean track. In reality the system has only deviated from projected path by a very small amount.
Quoting medicroc:

Could it be that its undergoing an eyewall replacement?


Possibly that, or dry air could affecting it. Hard to tell at this point. Usually an eye is well developed and holds for at least quite a few hours before replacing. Irene's wasn't there that long, but you never know.
2839. emguy
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
The longer Irene takes to intensify the further south it will stay. Once it intensifies further it will make its turn to the north. That's pretty much why it is a bit further south than some might have expected, because to this point it has also been weaker than some models depicted. However now that it is becoming much better organized, it should be much more effected by upper level steering patterns. Overall I think a slight, but not major western adjustment will be made to the forecasts.... Florida is definitely not out of the woods, there's still something like a 25% chance the hurricane ends up much further west... but then again that's only a 25% chance. The models probably have generally the right idea, albeit not exact but the general idea of bringing the system up north near or into the Carolina coastline then into the northern mid-Atlantic/New England states.



...and...the models have been scewed poleward all year long with each of the storms, and with Irene, continue to show crazy low pressures all the way along their potential paths. In other words, higher pressures that are more realistic equal a more westward path for the storm.
Quoting TomTaylor:
possibly tropical storm force winds, most likely just TS force gusts. Some rain too. Shouldn't be too bad, unless Irene decides to continue to defy the track forecast.
tom,you think irene is defying the forecast track?
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


exactly. I see this every hurricane people start following the wobbles instead of the mean track. In reality the system has only deviated from projected path by a very small amount.


We're not only considering the small wobbles, or jumps west if you will. But the whole atmospheric setup that is developing in the atlantic and GOM right in front of Irene and how that could affect it differently then what the computer models have been predicting.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Possibly that, or dry air could affecting it. Hard to tell at this point. Usually an eye is well developed and holds for at least quite a few hours before replacing. Irene's wasn't there that long, but you never know.
...or maybe it's intensifying?
Quoting MoltenIce:
...or maybe it's intensifying?


It's possible. Wish we had recon in there right now.
Seems like she is picking up her tempo a little bit. Moving WNW, nice CDO.
Quoting alvarig1263:


We're not only considering the small wobbles, or jumps west if you will. But the whole atmospheric setup that is developing in the atlantic and GOM right in front of Irene and how that could affect it differently then what the computer models have been predicting.


Dude not trying to be mean but the G4 mission has ingested that data. They have a good grasp on the current atmospheric conditions. Irene will not deviate off this track. If you are in the cone pay attention.
Quoting alvarig1263:


It's possible. Wish we had recon in there right now.
Unfortunately...next recon is scheduled for 1200Z...
2847. emguy
Quoting atmosweather:
Looking at the infrared imagery I don't think the eye is clouding over due to dry air but actually because she might be starting an EWRC. Too bad RECON isn't in there to confirm, but the eye has been shrinking for the last few hours, from 35 miles in diameter earlier in the evening to 15-20 miles. You can also see where the presence of two wind maximums could be with the strong convection banding around the southern semicircle about 60-80 miles away from the center.


Actually, it is neither. The eye wall is producing thunderstorm so intense that they are producing overshooting cloud tops (anvils), which are obsuring the eye. With time, Irene will become strong enough to reach that vertical height that it will no longer become an issue. The air will just sink into the eye. For now, the vortex is not at an altitude to control this overshooting. Soon though, yes, very soon....
There is a G4 flying north of the area now, I believe.
Easy with the nightowl wishcasting.
Eye still visible though...and she looks kind of meaner now.

FROM NWS RALEIGH Discussion:

Main concern for the long term period will be Hurricane Irene.


Model guidance...as well as the latest NHC forecast...continues to
indicate an eastward shift in the track of Irene...with the center
now expected to pass over the Outer Banks. However...everyone in
central North Carolina needs to continue to monitor the situation
closely due to the potential of large forecast errors this far out
in time.


The timing and strength of several shortwaves moving across the
US/Canadian border continue to be the main features that will
influence the track of Irene. Model guidance has come into better
agreement during the past day and indicates some amplification of a
trough over the Great Lakes/New England...which would steer Irene
more to the north northeast (hence the continued eastward shift).
However...models are just now beginning to Sample the responsible
shortwave and therefore will have to be monitored for any changes in
later model runs.


Due to the continued uncertainty with respect to Irene...do not
plan to make too many changes to the ongoing forecast. For the
Saturday through early Sunday time frame...will trend probability of precipitation across
the forecast area from likely over the eastern half to chance across
the west. With the increased clouds and precipitation...high temperatures will be
below normal and overnight lows will likely be above normal.


Conditions are expected to improve late Sunday into Monday as Irene
pulls away from the region...with temperatures returning to near normal on
Monday. A lingering trough over the region will support isolated
showers and storms Monday afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.


&&
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
The longer Irene takes to intensify the further south it will stay. Once it intensifies further it will make its turn to the north. That's pretty much why it is a bit further south than some might have expected, because to this point it has also been weaker than some models depicted. However now that it is becoming much better organized, it should be much more effected by upper level steering patterns. Overall I think a slight, but not major western adjustment will be made to the forecasts.... Florida is definitely not out of the woods, there's still something like a 25% chance the hurricane ends up much further west... but then again that's only a 25% chance. The models probably have generally the right idea, albeit not exact but the general idea of bringing the system up north near or into the Carolina coastline then into the northern mid-Atlantic/New England states.

she's still ingesting dry air and farting out outbursts
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
15:00 PM JST August 24 2011
============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Mariana Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located near 16.2N 142.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.1N 141.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting StarnzMet:


Dude not trying to be mean but the G4 mission has ingested that data. They have a good grasp on the current atmospheric conditions. Irene will not deviate off this track. If you are in the cone pay attention.


I understand they had the latest atmospheric condition as of when they ran their models, but as of the 6Z atmospheric condition the ridge has shoved itself more west and the texas ridge has gone even further west. It's just something to think about and we'll see if the models pick up on it in their next runs. By the way, G4 mission currently in progress. Data won't be processed till later. Guess we'll see what they find...
i'd say she's back to her good ol' 285...

2856. emguy
Quoting StarnzMet:


Dude not trying to be mean but the G4 mission has ingested that data. They have a good grasp on the current atmospheric conditions. Irene will not deviate off this track. If you are in the cone pay attention.


Those missions measured moisture, tempreature, wind direction and pressure, which defines the boudries of troughs and ridges in a typical environment. Throw the Cut-Off low that developed south of the Carolina in the mix and you get a surprise. The data will not see that, and the models are not good at forecasting it. However, it is there, hence the legit wild card factor for a potential track change surprise that may/may not occur.
According to what I am seeing so far, 586-588DM 500mb heights around 29N, and from 79-75W (lowest to highest). That 586DM 500mb height is closest to our trough near the SE US coast... makes sense.
AL, 09, 2011082406, , BEST, 0, 213N, 725W, 95, 965

almost at Category 3
Quoting MoltenIce:
Unfortunately...next recon is scheduled for 1200Z...


Why not just say 8am?
Hold down the fort guys, If Irene heads for Andros Island,call and wake me up!
Hang in there "CaicosRetierdSalior", Looks like you are in the thick of it.
Quoting Kowaliga:
i'd say she's back to her good ol' 285...



Yep, and going right over the Inaguas
2864. Dunkman
At the risk of giving the florida wishcasters something to make them think it may actually come true, which it's not, the new UKMET gets pretty close.

Quoting ecflweatherfan:
According to what I am seeing so far, 586-588DM 500mb heights around 29N, and from 79-75W (lowest to highest). That 586DM 500mb height is closest to our trough near the SE US coast... makes sense.
and that means exactly what?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hold down the fort guys, If Irene heads for Andros Island,call and wake me up!


What Yo numba? LOL.
Nice little downpour went over the Melbourne, FL reporting site... 1.22" in the last hour.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


What Yo numba? LOL.
lol.....need sum dem bigs shrimps
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yep, and going right over the Inaguas


Yup, my car's there and I left the windows down! :-O
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
lol.....need sum dem bigs shrimps


We got um dawg. got dem prawns if you need um..LOL I think I could eat some leftover gumbo for breakfast rat about now. But seriously thinking I may go wit da left ova conebread anna glass uh milk. mmmm hmmm
24/0545 UTC 21.3N 72.4W

T5.5 = (at or between 100-115 knot range on the Dvorak scale)
there is no shortwave trough. i dont agree with anyone that is supporting a hard turn north. It was supposed to do that 18 hrs ago. i believe the models are going to shift back today as it now appears the shortwave has not appeared. Wishcasters you can all sit there like conn.wx and wish, but all the wishing in the world isn't gonna make your weak shortwave trough your counting on appear out of thin air.


i think the best thing that has come from the bad model runs in the past 24 hours is it has definitely separated the boys from the men. The trolls and lurkers will still keep wishcasting based on anomaly readings while us that understand can watch in real time what is really happening.

all wishcasters.....Your trough is nowhere in sight, as if you even know what im talking about....lol
2873. NCCANE
Quoting Dunkman:
At the risk of giving the florida wishcasters something to make them think it may actually come true, which it's not, the new UKMET gets pretty close.



can you post that link? Thanks
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yep, and going right over the Inaguas


There's 80,000 flamingos in Grand Inagua. Poor birds. Some of them might end up in NYC.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
and that means exactly what?


Based on the limited amount of information at this point, it seems like the weakest area is closer to FL. Which "could" have implications in later model runs and forecasts. Problem is, they will not be available until later in the day... most likely the 18Z model runs, for the 5pm advisory tonight.
Quoting odinslightning:
there is no shortwave trough. i dont agree with anyone that is supporting a hard turn north. It was supposed to do that 18 hrs ago. i believe the models are going to shift back today as it now appears the shortwave has not appeared. Wishcasters you can all sit there like conn.wx and wish, but all the wishing in the world a) isn't gonna make your weak shortwave trough your counting on appear out of thin air.


i think the best thing that has come from the bad model runs in the past 24 hours is it has definitely separated the boys from the men. The trolls and lurkers will still keep wishcasting based on anomaly readings while us that understand can watch in real time what is really happening.

all wishcasters.....Your trough is nowhere in sight, as if you even know what im talking about....lol



I sort of agree with you but I think its too soon to jump to a conclusion with this. I am going to agree with the NHC until something drastic or radical happens. The high looks like it is stronger and more pronounced further west. The trough looks like it will be weaker and further north. I think this all points to this storm hitting further west and to the south and we might see this reflect in the next model runs.
Wow


2011AUG24 071500 6.5 935.8/ +0.9 /127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT
** WTNT80 EGRR 240600 ***

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2011

HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 71.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2011 20.8N 71.9W INTENSE
12UTC 24.08.2011 22.0N 73.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2011 23.0N 75.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2011 24.5N 77.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2011 26.3N 77.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2011 28.5N 78.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.08.2011 30.5N 78.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2011 32.2N 77.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2011 33.8N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2011 35.5N 75.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2011 37.6N 73.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2011 39.9N 71.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2011 43.0N 68.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
Quoting DerOrkanWachter:



I sort of agree with you but I think its too soon to jump to a conclusion with this. I am going to agree with the NHC until something drastic or radical happens. The high looks like it is stronger and more pronounced further west. The trough looks like it will be weaker and further north. I think this all points to this storm hitting further west and to the south and we might see this reflect in the next model runs.


UKMET is running now and feeling the effects of the high with a more westerly track. It's all coming together. I've been talking about this shift westward for the past 18 hours and I think it's finally happening. Will have to wait and see how the other models react.
Quoting DerOrkanWachter:



I sort of agree with you but I think its too soon to jump to a conclusion with this. I am going to agree with the NHC until something drastic or radical happens. The high looks like it is stronger and more pronounced further west. The trough looks like it will be weaker and further north. I think this all points to this storm hitting further west and to the south and we might see this reflect in the next model runs.



exactly. when i fell asleep at 9:00 pm c.s.t. i saw the Bermuda High ridge running an offensive line blocking scheme that would make anyone in the SEC jealous....I remember saying to myself.....well, maybe they see a trough appearing overnight because it's not there now.....and now 6 hrs later no trough.


Anomaly ##z runs yesterday. Expect model runs today to eliminate the error.
Quoting odinslightning:



exactly. when i fell asleep at 9:00 pm c.s.t. i saw the Bermuda High ridge running an offensive line blocking scheme that would make anyone in the SEC jealous....I remember saying to myself.....well, maybe they see a trough appearing overnight because it's not there now.....and now 6 hrs later no trough.


Anomaly ##z runs yesterday. Expect model runs today to eliminate the error.


I love the SEC reference lol.. Geaux Tigahs!!!!!!!
Where is the night crew at? You would never know that there is a borderline Major Hurricane out there. The blog has gotten eerily slow.
2883. emguy
Wator Vapor loop of the US. I leave this up to the interpretation of you, the readers... I think it speaks for itself...Mean time, whatever it does, the South Carolina Cutoff Low has become a legit Cutoff Low. Looks like a tight strong one too...It's a big deal one way or the other...
2884. Titoxd
NEW BLOG
Quoting yonzabam:


There's 80,000 flamingos in Grand Inagua. Poor birds. Some of them might end up in NYC.


I had never seen one in nature until shortly after I think it was either Frances or Jeanne, it ended up displaced here in central Florida. Not that it minded, I would think... as there is PLENTY of shrimp to eat around here in the Indian River Lagoon system. lol
2886. NCCANE
Wilmington, NC real time

B/P 1017 mb
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Where is the night crew at? You would never know that there is a borderline Major Hurricane out there. The blog has gotten eerily slow.


It's not going to Florida, so the schoolkids there have lost interest.
My father just got up and said recently that he has a feeling that this is going to go west and that the models are over emphasizing the trough and underemphasizing the trough. I think we will see a westward track as well and I think Georgia and South Carolina better get ready because its going to be much closer than they have been predicting earlier. I can feel it in the air maybe its just because I am delirious but it certainly feels like this hurricane may be heading to the Georgia or South Carolina coast.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow


2011AUG24 071500 6.5 935.8/ +0.9 /127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT


Yeah that's kind of ridiculous lol. But there's no doubt she is more intense now than she was when the last RECON plane left. Eye has shrank considerably, CDO is absolutely symmetrical and her circulation is ventilating as well as it possibly could.
2890. 7544
hmmmmmmmmmLink
ty for the people in here right now that i can count on 1 hand that know what is going on in here. for all other lurkers i wish you would a) be quiet and b) open your ears and eyes and learn. all you lurkers are doing is causing confusion and one of these days someone is gonna come in here, count on what a wishcaster says, and that person is gonna get hurt....


know this much wishcasters, god in my opinion will hold u accountable for people getting hurt based on your bogus wishes and bullcrap predictions. i would cut your losses while u can, that is, if people haven't already been hurt by your bullcrap dart throwing with a blindfold on.


i love this blog, there are some real geniuses. i just hope the wishcasters go away and troll some other blog.
OK kids, the Ambien just kicked in so this is the last one I'll be able to put together till later.

Don't forget the meeting tonight on Cat Isl. - you may
want to bring an umbrella......and a SQUEEGEE! ;-)

The East Coast will take quite a beating from Hatteras Northward. And The Carolin's are not out of the woods yet . Irene will get it's name retired when all is said and done.
Quoting odinslightning:
there is no shortwave trough. i dont agree with anyone that is supporting a hard turn north. It was supposed to do that 18 hrs ago. i believe the models are going to shift back today as it now appears the shortwave has not appeared. Wishcasters you can all sit there like conn.wx and wish, but all the wishing in the world isn't gonna make your weak shortwave trough your counting on appear out of thin air.


i think the best thing that has come from the bad model runs in the past 24 hours is it has definitely separated the boys from the men. The trolls and lurkers will still keep wishcasting based on anomaly readings while us that understand can watch in real time what is really happening.

all wishcasters.....Your trough is nowhere in sight, as if you even know what im talking about....lol


you can always count on the fictioncasters to be the first to call out people by name and insult them. There is very little to support what you say... and you say no trough has developed? Then tell me what exactly is moving towards the east coast with a frontal boundary, progged to cause isolated to scattered severe weather across New England and the Mid Atlantic on Thursday? A phantom is causing this? The water vapor imagery clearly shows a trough moving in. The northeast and north turn is quite likely. However, it pains me to admit, there is still an outside chance that something major could change and you could go from wishcaster to luckcaster. Anyway I will not be responding to any more of your fairly uneducated criticism, I am not into the whole bickering back and fourth game. Troll again, if you must.

for some reason I am not able to figure out why if this hurricane is moving WNW they expected to turn North
Good morning. The folks are here putting up my hurricane shutters. I think I will delay my evacuation until tomorrow though because Irene just keeps shifting to the east.
...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 21.9°N 73.3°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THE
CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH....105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (ON)
MARK
22.90n/73.13w





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
NEW BLOG!