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Hurricane Irene Prepares to Leave the Bahamas and Head for the US

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:51 AM GMT on August 25, 2011

As of 2AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 24.2N, 76.0W, 105 miles east-southeast of Nassau or 760 miles south of Cape Hatteras. It was moving northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 950 mb. Hurricane force winds can be found up to 70 miles from Irene's center, and tropical storm force winds can be found out to 255 miles from the storm's center.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamas. Hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be posted for the Carolina coastlines later this morning. At this time, Dare County Emergency Management has issued a mandatory evacuation order for all visitors in their county. Dare County Schools will also be closed Thursday and Friday.

Satellite Views
Figure 1 is the infrared satellite image of Irene at 135EDT. The convection is a bit unbalanced around the storm center, which is going to cause Irene to wobble like an unbalanced clothes washer (Analogy courtesy of Angela Fritz) over the next few hours. At the time this image was taken, the convection around Irene's center appears to be getting more vigorous, as cold cloudtops are starting to increase around the storm center. This is important to note because microwave satellite imagery from Wednesday evening suggested Irene was starting an eyewall replacement cycle. Figure 2 shows passive microwave imagery from a Air Force DMSP polar-orbiting satellite. The two concentric green/yellow bands in the image suggest that two eyewall features are present in Irene, and Hurricane Hunter observations confirm this. This has important consequences for Irene's intensity, because in an eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall weakens, the storm's intensity drops. However, once the inner eyewall is gone, and the outer eyewall contracts to replace it, the storm intensity will increase again.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 113AM EDT, August 23, 2011


Figure 2 DMSP F18 microwave overpass of Irene at 824PM EDT, August 24, 2011. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to move to the northwest, passing over the northwest Bahamas by Thursday evening, then curving to the northeast. Irene then makes landfall in the US near or at the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon, then traveling along the mid-Atlantic coastline of the US. Sunday, Irene may make secondary landfall anywhere from New Jersey to Long Island and the southern New England coastline. In my opinion, New York City may be significantly impacted by Irene. It is also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large, affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from Irene's center on Friday afternoon.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a Category 4 storm (winds faster than 130 mph) by Thursday morning. As Irene moves northward into cooler water, the intensity is expected to drop slowly to a Category 2 storm before making landfall in the Outer Banks.


Figure 3 Official track forecast of Irene at 2AM EDT.

Forecast models and today's planned flights
The different forecast models are still in fairly good agreement about Irene's track through the Bahamas and along the east coast of the US. The 00Z GFS run is in close agreement with the 12Z ECMWF run, but the 00Z ECMWF run (shown in figure 4) is continuing the ECMWF's trend of shifting the track westward with each run. NHC forecasters have been placing emphasis on the ECMWF's forecast track when making their forecasts for IRene, so it is possible that the NHC track will shift westwards at the 5AM update.

Looking at the plan of the day valid for today, it will be a busy day for airborne reconnaissance. Three flights for the Air Force hurricane hunters, two flights for the Gulfstream IV (Gonzo), and two flights for NOAA 42, a WP-3D (Kermit). They may have to give NOAA a littering permit for all of the dropsondes used to monitor Irene and her environment, but the forecast improvements they generate are worth the effort.


Figure 4 Plot of the maximum sustained winds in mph over the next week from the 00Z ECMWF forecast.

Impacts

Hurricane force winds will arrive in the northwestern Bahamas today. Storm surge near the center of Irene will be 7-11 feet above tide level. The Bahamas can expect 6-12 inches of rain over the next day or so, and it looks like the Turks and Caicos islands will receive a total of 6-12 inches from Irene. Large, swells from Irene will start landing on the southeastern US coastline later today. Please don't go in the water, as these swells can cause dangerous rip currents. Dr. Masters has catalogued the worst-case storm surge surge scenarios as a function of storm intensity here.

In my opinion, people living from the Carolinas to Cape Cod should pay close attention to Irene and prepare for a wide range of impacts. I think that there is a 75% chance of Irene's secondary landfall will be somewhere between JFK airport and Cape Cod. That said, Irene's size will cause significant impacts for people living far from it's center.

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting HCW:
Irene Flood pic from P.R



Is that a shark....
1002. zuglie
Going North Now For Sure !
Quoting MrstormX:


Is that a shark....


Nope its ronald mcdonald
ahem..

A chain saw is a must for sure even if you don't have trees in your yard before the storm. You may trees in your yard after the storm. Also, make sure you have plenty of insect repellant with DEET and in door out door insect spray. The bugs will out in full force.
1006. DFWjc
Quoting MrstormX:


Is that a shark....


(channeling my inner Bill Engvall)Here's your sign...LOL
Quoting MississippiWx:


Morning!

I think she's about halfway done with it, maybe a little more. If we look at the MIMIC product from CIMSS, you can see that she is still open to the south. Of course, this loop is 3 hours old now and she is probably a little closer than this shows.

As far as dry air goes, you can see that on this product as well. The radar loop I posted a few posts back also shows the dry slot on the west side as well.

Anyway, when the EWRC is complete, I see no reason why she can't become a Cat 4. The only limiting factor is dry air, and she has been able to mix that out before her EWRC took place.


Morning. I do think she'll be able to work out the dry air with no problem. The latest SHIPS run of the mid-level 500-700 RH levels shows near 70 degrees for the next 48 hours or so. When this EWRC is finally complete in approximately 6-12 hours, I see no reason whatsoever why she would not be able to strengthen to category 4 criteria. I would not be surprised to see a 145mph hurricane out of her before she peaks. I think by the time she get near NC (whether she makes landfall there or not), I see her in the low-end category 4 range or more likely a strong cat 3.
Quoting 69Viking:


It's wasn't forecast to go West of 77 early yesterday or two days ago. The NHC changes their forecast tracks every so many hours. My point was yesterday several on this blog said it wouldn't make it to 77W and all I'm saying is they'll be eating crow soon.

not true.

from 5AM discussion on Tues.

72H 26/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 31.5N 78.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

14Z RUC init:

irene is not moving north she is moving north west. i doubt the nhc will put the motion nnw on the 11am. probably tonight she will make that turn. on satalite she is moving nw to nnw
Quoting 69Viking:


It's wasn't forecast to go West of 77 early yesterday or two days ago. The NHC changes their forecast tracks every so many hours. My point was yesterday several on this blog said it wouldn't make it to 77W and all I'm saying is they'll be eating crow soon.


i wasn't one of them Viking...i don't think Chas will take a direct hit, i do think it will finally turn, but you are correct...i remember all the it wont pass 77W...and now it is there and still moving NW...50 miles in a track is the difference between a gusty day and sustained winds...
1012. FLdewey
Quoting wxobsvps:
ahem..



Ouch... that's a stinger.
1013. ncstorm
Tweet from Jim cantore..

JimCantore Jim Cantore
Given western shift in models New England may not be my final spot. #Irene #Hurricane NEW data out after noon.
Quoting TallyMike:


MAybe kind of silly but I move some my larger tools such as a crowbar, ax and chainsaw into the house in case we have to dig out. Lots of big trees in our yard.


I don't think this is silly, its a great idea. I usually have a spot for the things you need to make small repairs, some 2x4's, nails, hammers, etc.

I also bring my grill in and put against the inside door. That way at least I know I should have something to cook on!
1015. P451
Quoting klaatuborada:


I remember Gloria. It didn't do much. But Bob, Bob was scary. So many old oak trees down, I was surprised at how many fell right next to houses, or cars or buildings, and realized how lucky we were.

It took weeks to get the power back up, and anyone with a chain-saw made a ton of money.


Gloria was more of a NJ storm. We got in the eye for a short bit. Had a lot of rain. Numerous 75-100mph wind gusts. Thankfully it hit at low tide but even then the storm surge was into the second story of all the barrier island homes and businesses.


This system is very tricky. If it goes far enough inland over NC and rides inland we'll end up with TS Hanna type effect. She could be a Gloria, she could be a Bob, she could do nor'easter 1992 type damage. We really just don't quite know yet.

However, for you (SE Mass????), this system is just as tricky. As you said Bob was bad for you but Gloria not so much.

It's just too early for us. We won't really know until Saturday honestly.



1016. MahFL
Quoting TheMom:
Actually we have a Tropical Storm Warning have since 8am


That's only for the waters, not the land area.
Quoting ncstorm:
Tweet from Jim cantore..

JimCantore Jim Cantore
Given western shift in models New England may not be my final spot. #Irene #Hurricane NEW data out after noon.


uh oh for us...
Quoting rushisaband:



yes ... erin i think was only a cat 1 .. but i remember tons of trees down .... chainsaw heaven


It was kind of a good thing Erin cleaned out all the older and weaker trees. Made it a lot less of a mess two months later when Opal rolled through!
1019. Zaphod
DO NOT GRILL INDOORS though!

It's one thing to have the grill indoors so it doesn't blow away. Carbon monoxide is a given with charcoal, and possible (even likely?) with propane.
1020. myrtle1
hey i live in little river
Quoting zoomiami:


I don't think this is silly, its a great idea. I usually have a spot for the things you need to make small repairs, some 2x4's, nails, hammers, etc.

I also bring my grill in and put against the inside door. That way at least I know I should have something to cook on!


Dont cook inside with a gas grill! Carbon Monoxide will kill you quicker than anything, and a gas gill produces a ton of it!
1022. Patrap
Quoting ecupirate:


Dont cook inside with a gas grill! Carbon Monoxide will kill you quicker than anything, and a gas gill produces a ton of it!



lol -- no I don't cook on it -- I mean so that it doesn't get damaged during the storm.
We've got a media briefing with the Charleston NWS at 11 - I'll let my Lowcountry peeps know if anything has changed.
LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Morning. I do think she'll be able to work out the dry air with no problem. The latest SHIPS run of the mid-level 500-700 RH levels shows near 70 degrees for the next 48 hours or so. When this EWRC is finally complete in approximately 6-12 hours, I see no reason whatsoever why she would not be able to strengthen to category 4 criteria. I would not be surprised to see a 145mph hurricane out of her before she peaks. I think by the time she get near NC (whether she makes landfall there or not), I see her in the low-end category 4 range or more likely a strong cat 3.


Also agree. Only problem with that is Irene will have a larger storm surge when she finally makes landfall later on and could still be close to a Major hurricane when it approaches New England. Everyone on the coast from the carolinas north, hope for the best, prepare for the worst!
1027. hahaguy
So looks like she's made her NNW turn according to the NHC.
when is the 11am update??
Quoting tiggeriffic:


ummm...yeah...that is the difference between TS gusty day and sustained winds...if i am not mistaken, didn't we have this discussion yesterday about her passing 77W... ;)


Good Morning, Pal!

Kisses
1030. JeffM
Moving NNW now
1031. Vero1
Quoting MahFL:


That's only for the waters, not the land area.
So when the surge from the storm is higher than the elevation of your house they are covered?
1032. snotly
CA CAW!

Link
1033. HCW
Quoting ecupirate:


Dont cook inside with a gas grill! Carbon Monoxide will kill you quicker than anything, and a gas gill produces a ton of it!


Wasnt directed at you ;-)

Worried some folks from dirty jersey would get the brght idea to cook inside..
1035. Jax82
Well....



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
1036. 996tt
Can someone post a map with plot of cource up til present. Not sure why the maps here do not have a detailed plot of path Irene has taken. Just trying to see when and where the turn was intiated.
1037. zuglie
000
WTNT34 KNHC 251454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...CORE
APPROACHING ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting MrstormX:


Is that a shark....


Actually it is a landshark :)
1039. zawxdsk
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE
THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND
IS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE
NOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A
SECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY
SUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE
THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A
NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN
IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF
THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES
EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...
SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
we have to wait and see not how much irene goes west but hpw much she goes east before hittting north carolina
Quoting chevycanes:

not true.

from 5AM discussion on Tues.

72H 26/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 31.5N 78.3W 105 KT 120 MPH



Ok, I was wrong about the forecast then but my POINT is several bloggers said there was no way Irene would past 77W despite whatever was forecast at the time.
1042. zuglie
Florida is Safe
Oh, crap, that's starting to look like a very close shore hugger for the mid-Atlantic.
1044. MahFL
The eye is just wobbling around to the NE and N as it reforms. On radar the inner band visible is still making headway west and north.
Quoting Zaphod:
DO NOT GRILL INDOORS though!

It's one thing to have the grill indoors so it doesn't blow away. Carbon monoxide is a given with charcoal, and possible (even likely?) with propane.
Good morning. That wouldn't make sense as far as propane is concerned. I don't use my grill inside but if you can cook on a propane stove inside why not the grill ?
1046. Jax82
1047. Vero1
Quoting Zaphod:
DO NOT GRILL INDOORS though!

It's one thing to have the grill indoors so it doesn't blow away. Carbon monoxide is a given with charcoal, and possible (even likely?) with propane.
Quoting ecupirate:


Dont cook inside with a gas grill! Carbon Monoxide will kill you quicker than anything, and a gas gill produces a ton of it!
I normally cook with gas range (not electric) with the windows shut....You are speaking of charcol grills
1049. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. That wouldn't make sense as far as propane is concerned. I don't use my grill inside but if you can cook on a propane stove inside why not the grill ?


That's a good question. I was wondering that myself. Some people here in south florida use the small propane burners inside their homes, and I wondered if that was a problem.
Quoting JeffM:
Moving NNW now


As long as the next update doesn't show another jog to the west, then we could theoretically narrow an impact to the Cape area and JFK.

One more shift west moves that area over by the amount of the shift.

Just curious, will Lady Liberty pull her toga up when wading through the storm?
1052. JeffM
Looks like a slight nudge to the left
1053. Zaphod
Cat 4 fell off the projections. Maybe the NE will luck out afterall? Intensity projections are so variable....
Quoting Chucktown:
We've got a media briefing with the Charleston NWS at 11 - I'll let my Lowcountry peeps know if anything has changed.


Please do!! Very anxious here in Murrells Inlet!!
Quoting HCW:


This shows Wilmington in the hurricane force winds area, with the center (and major hurricane winds) offshore by no more than 40-50 miles, and no hurricane watch? Crazy, maybe they know something we dont
Chain saw, lots of bug spray, cold beverages on ice (lots of coolers of ice & dry ice in the freezers), plenty of gas for the chainsaw & vehicles & a mindful eye b/c the snakes are disoriented after a good blow & lots of rain & show up in places not usually seen - trying not to drown I reckon.

Wilmington is under Hurricane Watch according to TWC. Got jugs ready to fill, a 3 pack of Clorox (Bleach is the smell of victory IMAO TY Costco!), propane tank filled Monday, generator tested & ready to kick in if/when power goes out, shutters up on ground floor, roller shutters tested & ready to close at any time on upper floors, yard nearly picked up. Just have to slam in some late pepper plants, tip over big tomato plants in pots, take cuttings of tomato plants I can't tip, harvest basil, tomatoes & peppers & then go out to the country plot to harvest tomatoes, peppers, pears & plant/sling field peas & squash for late harvest. Will be making fig preserves & peach/pepper salsa while Irene rolls over.

Hopefully we will just see TS winds & rain, lottsa rain...
1057. MahFL
"IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE
THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT"

Well the NHC are at least honest, which is a rare quality these days....
1058. Vero1
.
Quoting zoomiami:


That's a good question. I was wondering that myself. Some people here in south florida use the small propane burners inside their homes, and I wondered if that was a problem.


The regulator and burners are different on an outdoor grill and produce a much larger amount of CO then an indoor product.

Indoor products are tested, regulated, and produce much lower amounts of CO.
1060. myrtle1
nash i live at 33.9n 78.7 w will i have much wind
Just an FYI: During Hurricane Charlie down here in S FL, a lot of house fires were started once the power came back on sometimes a week or two after the storm passed. One reason was due to stuff being stacked on top of the stove and burner being left on. Power came back on and ignited contents on the stove. Just be careful people and evacuate if you live in and evac zone.
Wow, that latest track by the NHC puts a lot of the NC coast at risk.
1063. TheMom
Daytona just had 1.6 mins of sideways rain and gone... Sun shining light breeze...This is gonna be interesting these little "touches" from Irene
1064. 996tt
Any one have a link to map showing actual course taken plots. I would like to see the plots over the past 6 hours to see where turn intiated.
1065. Zaphod
Propane grills are "mostly" safe, if they are working well. Indoor stoves tend not to have maintenance issues due to overfiring and such that outdoor grills do. Why take chances?

"At high enough levels, carbon monoxide is deadly, report researchers at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The deadly gas is created whenever a gas grill is fired up. Carbon monoxide, or CO, is safe when the grill is operating properly, but when used improperly or in defective grills, it can be dangerous. The CDC reports that hundreds die from accidental CO poisoning every year. Fumes should always be vented outdoors with a gas grill to prevent a buildup of CO. Symptoms of carbon monoxide poisoning include nausea, headaches, confusion, shortness of breath and dizziness."
I am surprised how well it's held it's pressure seeing how ragged she looks.

Nice structure is apparent and this seems like it bodes well for strengthening as it exits Abaco later today.
1067. HCW
TD#10 is getting no love and I hear talk about it being a fish LOL

1068. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


NEW BLOG ENTRY (with much eye-opening content)
I've always wondered, How does it feel to have such a beast of a storm just a few 100 miles away. This is mother nature at her meanest and her most beautifulness.
1071. FLdewey
Ska-blam...

1072. myway
Quoting Zaphod:
Propane grills are "mostly" safe, if they are working well. Indoor stoves tend not to have maintenance issues due to overfiring and such that outdoor grills do. Why take chances?

"At high enough levels, carbon monoxide is deadly, report researchers at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The deadly gas is created whenever a gas grill is fired up. Carbon monoxide, or CO, is safe when the grill is operating properly, but when used improperly or in defective grills, it can be dangerous. The CDC reports that hundreds die from accidental CO poisoning every year. Fumes should always be vented outdoors with a gas grill to prevent a buildup of CO. Symptoms of carbon monoxide poisoning include nausea, headaches, confusion, shortness of breath and dizziness."


Use a table top butane burner. That is what restaurants use for table side cooking.
1073. hahaguy
Quoting HCW:
TD#10 is getting no love and I hear talk about it being a fish LOL



Looks like ti wants to bend back after next tuesday.
Quoting zuglie:
Florida is Safe


Really depends on the neighborhood.
yeah, saw the same thing. the computer models were indicating the same thing but it seems as per the 11AM advisory that at day 5 it starts going west

maybe they mean the trough will pick it up after day 5?

who knows...

anything that goes west after a few days will have a good chance of continuing west due to the Bermuda High strengthening soon (at least it is supposed to)
1076. wxdrone
It worries me that some think this system is weakening while it's really just a temporary effect of the EWRC.
1077. zawxdsk
Maximum Envelope of Wind for New England - Cat 2 forward speed of 25kts.



More Here Link
1078. Zaphod
New blog.
Quoting zoomiami:


That's a good question. I was wondering that myself. Some people here in south florida use the small propane burners inside their homes, and I wondered if that was a problem.


Ahh, lots of homes have gas stoves in them, both propane and natural gas based I believe. Typically you don't cook inside with a grill because of the smoke but I don't see why you couldn't use the grill as your stove and cook with pots and pans if you have an electric stove.
Wow it's moving NNW now and missing FL.... how VERY "surprising" ;) ;)
1081. Grothar
NEW BLOG!
Quoting 900MB:
For Long Island: I went to sleep with the Hurricane of 38' and woke up with Gloria lite?



Well that's a good thing!
last good luck everyone
Visible on Miami radar.....Link
Quoting HCW:
Irene Flood pic from P.R



Is this seriously a SHARK swimming down a street?

857. mistified [inre the mapping in page17comment823] "Sorry, but what does this mean? The part about headed over Mt. Pleasant SC 1 day 5hrs.! Is this a past forecast or a current one?"

A straightline projection is NOT a forecast. It is information about where the storm was heading over the most recent six hours (given the constraint of having only two data points to work with), and how long it would take if the travel-speed were to remain constant.
Neither a storm's direction nor itstravel-speed is likely to remain steady.
But to help with visualization, instead of giving only a compass direction, I mention a landmark toward which the storm was moving during those 6hours.
So WIlmington is forecast to have gale force winds in 45 hours...great....I have really been praying this system doesnt messup my September beach vacation
Patrap, where are you able to pull that Long Range Miami radar from on here? I'd like to have that constant in one of my browsers. Thanks.
Quoting aspectre:

857. mistified [inre the mapping in page17comment823] "Sorry, but what does this mean? The part about headed over Mt. Pleasant SC 1 day 5hrs.! Is this a past forecast or a current one?"

A straightline projection is NOT a forecast. It is information about where the storm was heading over the most recent six hours (given the constraint of having only two data points to work with), and how long it would take if the travel-speed were to remain constant.
Neither a storm's direction nor itstravel-speed is likely to remain steady.
But to help with visualization, instead of giving only a compass direction, I mention a landmark toward which the storm was moving during those 6hours.


Thank you so much for that answer! I am trying to learn these things!
1091. tpabarb
What's up with Wilmington? Public advisory says hurricane watch starts at surf city but cone map clearly has wilmington in the pink.
Quoting weathers4me:
Just an FYI: During Hurricane Charlie down here in S FL, a lot of house fires were started once the power came back on sometimes a week or two after the storm passed. One reason was due to stuff being stacked on top of the stove and burner being left on. Power came back on and ignited contents on the stove. Just be careful people and evacuate if you live in and evac zone.


Fires can also start if generators are going when the power turns back on. After storms hit S MN 4th of July weekend, a taxidermist had a generator going to keep his freezers on when the power company "lit up the town". The power surge caused a transformer to blow which set the pole on fire which ultimately ended up burning the taxidermy to the ground.
Quoting FTmyersZ:
Visible on Miami radar.....Link


Iona Road here....howdy neighbor!
Did you say Iona Road? My dad had a small house on Iona on the water a few years ago..great spot go out into the water-way...He sold it and then passed away a few months ago..loved to fish from his houseboat..sad to lose my dad


Quoting TideWaterWeather:


Iona Road here....howdy neighbor!
Quoting zoomiami:



lol -- no I don't cook on it -- I mean so that it doesn't get damaged during the storm.


LOL. I knew what you meant. I bring mine into the garage to protect it. And then cross my fingers I don't get a tree on my house.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I've always wondered, How does it feel to have such a beast of a storm just a few 100 miles away. This is mother nature at her meanest and her most beautifulness.


It feels like you are waiting on a monster to come and get you.