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Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.


Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.


Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...
Irene
Irene
Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting ElConando:
Is it on GMT?


Quoting ElConando:


They leave at 5:30pm, or 17:30.


Umm they are almost in it right now....



Gone now until later.
1503. bappit
Quoting TomTaylor:

In that pic looks like Harvey may reincarnate in the Pacific.
1504. P451
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Curre

Weakening Flag : ON



************************************************* ***




It's.... ALWAYS on lol. It's never been off throughout Irene's life.

Amazing really. Not sure what the purpose of it is anymore other than to maybe trick individuals who have not yet caught on to it's behavior.
1505. RMCF
Quoting robintampabay:


Grandpa, It is better for your wife to be sick at your daughters house than not so alive at your beach front house. You may have a dune protecting your house, but if that dune is not 20 feet or higher you can just consider it a spped bump. Storm surge for a Cat 3-5 hurricane can be from 12-26 feet. I am not trying to be an azz, just giving you my honest opinion! Good Luck

yeah just ask those people that stayed on bolivar after Ike oh wait when they called to be rescued 911 told them to write their SS# on there arm so they could be identified.
Dropsonde pattern


Quoting Grandpato4:


Thank you. I just hate to leave if we don't have to since my wife is sick. I am wondering if we would be fine in our home because we do have a dune and are set back from that a bit more.
I watched Floyd eat through a 40 foot high dune 100 feet back. This was on a 7 mile long island in Abaco which storm surge mostly went around. You will have a storm surge....

If your dune is bigger than that and your house is built 30' above sea level than sure.....What the heck....

If it is over cat 3 you have got to leave IMO.
it looks like it it may stay this too the WNW of r Hispaniola thats good news
Quoting USAFwxguy:
CoC headed for DR at the moment.

I think that low lvl ridge up to the north is causing this short-term motion
GOOD
Quoting petewxwatcher:
How tall is a -89 C cloud top?
Really impossible to tell. There is no guide that says -x degrees corresponds to a certain height in the atmosphere. I mean roughly speaking you can look at a chart which will tell you how cold it is at a given height. However, that is assuming clear skies and is pretty off when it comes to thunderstorms in the column of air.

I'd guess these cloud tops are around 60 kft though.
@rchira:

Same thing happened for Jeanne. Everything showed it was gonna go out to sea, then next thing you know, it's taking a turn to Florida.
Infrared minus Water Vapor (IR-WV) imagery shows some differences in cloud top temps between IR and WV imagery. Generally speaking, negative values support the idea of overshooting cloud tops. Having overshooting cloud tops in the CDO is a good sign Irene is strengthening her core.




Keep in mind this is an hour old image. Right now, cloud tops are even cooler.

And with that I'm audi5k. Later all
Quoting TomTaylor:
Latest Dropsonde from Gonzo (23N 73W) shows dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere




This is inline with the water vapor image (water vapor imagery depicts the upper third of the atmosphere) which is showing dry air aloft. Dropsonde location is circled in green.






As already mentioned, this is all a result of the trough over the east coast pushing winds toward Irene on the west side. This produces convergence aloft. When the air converges aloft, it sinks (subsides). As it sinks, it warms by compression and dries out the air level in the process.

Other than this, the rest of the upper level and oceanic environment are favorable for continued intensification. The only other issue is the organization and continued land interaction from Hispaniola (although the effects of this will not be nearly as significant as expected a few days ago). None of these are huge issues, however. So...Bahamas, SE US, mid Atlantic states, and NE states, start prepping now...


That convergence aloft was mentioned I believe yesterday by the NHC as well. That convergence aloft creates subsidence, e.g. high pressure. Could that be why the dropsonde in that area is indicating steering winds out of the E-ENE? And, what impact, if any, would that have on the track of Irene?
1514. MTWX
Quoting bythegraceofgod:


I am from Hattiesburg, just up from the Mississippi coast, and I still have not driven along Beach Boulevard. Those beautiful homes, cute little motels, shops, restaurants, etc. It literally looked like a bomb went off. According to the news Mississippi only lost a few tree limbs.

I live in Columbus, and go down to the coast a few times a year. Definitely different now! I do like the sculptures they made out of the oak trees that didn't make it along 90 though...
Quoting Grandpato4:


You are probably right. I'm going to stay put until maybe Wednesday and assess the situation then. I just hate to leave when they keep shifting the track east. I could see me heading to Raleigh and the storm out to sea.
Hey Grandpa, models will be shifting all the time. You would want to listen to NHC, which got the path to Charleston. They also got NC in cone, so I would get ready to leave right now and wait one more day for any major change. If not, go to Greensville or Raleigh. Exactly where in Raleigh is your daughter? I'm in Garner/Clayton area.
1516. Drakoen
I wonder if the parabolic shape and topography of Hispaniola is actually helping Irene, for the time being.
Afternoon........I see the models shifted further East......The best thing has actually happened MAYBE. If Irene can really become a Monster, she just might miss the ConUS completely. A CAT 3 into South Carolina seems to be the Current Trend. Not to let ones guard down as we are still 3-4 days out. A lot of shifts left and right can still occur. We often see Models over shift and have to come back the other way. KEEP WATCHING!!!
Quoting Grandpato4:


You are probably right. I'm going to stay put until maybe Wednesday and assess the situation then. I just hate to leave when they keep shifting the track east. I could see me heading to Raleigh and the storm out to sea.


Is this a joke or are you being serious as to your situation?
Quoting P451:



It's.... ALWAYS on lol. It's never been off throughout Irene's life.

Amazing really. Not sure what the purpose of it is anymore other than to maybe trick individuals who have not yet caught on to it's behavior.


True, I haven't looked at it through out Irene's life, which explains why I have not seen it.

Article from www.bloomberg.com on predictions for Irene

Link
Quoting P451:



It's.... ALWAYS on lol. It's never been off throughout Irene's life.

Amazing really. Not sure what the purpose of it is anymore other than to maybe trick individuals who have not yet caught on to it's behavior.


Agree. Dvorak estimates are to be taken with a grain of salt and relatively good knowledge of their behavior. Not only has the weakening flag been on for who knows how long now, for the last few hours it's said the pressure is 978mb or so...despite the HH's finding nothing lower than 983-985mb...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey Grandpa, models will be shifting all the time. You would want to listen to NHC, which got the path to Charleston. They also got NC in cone, so I would get ready to leave right now and wait one more day for any major change. If not, go to Greensville or Raleigh. Exactly where in Raleigh is your daughter? I'm in Garner/Clayton area.


My daughter is in North Raleigh out towards Wake Forest. I think we would be fine there. No large trees and she has a large brick home.
I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey Grandpa, models will be shifting all the time. You would want to listen to NHC, which got the path to Charleston. They also got NC in cone, so I would get ready to leave right now and wait one more day for any major change. If not, go to Greensville or Raleigh. Exactly where in Raleigh is your daughter? I'm in Garner/Clayton area.


This is awkward
what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm or 8pm?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Really impossible to tell. There is no guide that says -x degrees corresponds to a certain height in the atmosphere. I mean roughly speaking you can look at a chart which will tell you how cold it is at a given height. However, that is assuming clear skies.

I'd guess these cloud tops are around 60 kft though.


Thanks! I was thinking in the tropics it would have to be pretty far up there.
1527. P451
Quoting petewxwatcher:
How tall is a -89 C cloud top?


That's a very good question. Obviously temperature isn't an exact measure of height at any given place in the atmosphere but it's got to be pretty far up there to get that cold.

It's an answer I don't have.

Quoting NJcat3cane:
what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm of 8pm?


5PM
Quoting bythegraceofgod:


I am from Hattiesburg, just up from the Mississippi coast, and I still have not driven along Beach Boulevard. Those beautiful homes, cute little motels, shops, restaurants, etc. It literally looked like a bomb went off. According to the news Mississippi only lost a few tree limbs.


My mom was in that rehab/nursing center right across the street from the Hard Rock and we moved her about two weeks before. I remember going to see what happened to the nursing home and was never able to even locate where it had been. Lived in Mobile at the time and had a fair amount of damage ourselves...never understood why there was so little coverage of the truly devestated areas. Used to camp at Waveland and went last year...still devastated!
Quoting Dem86Mets:


Is this a joke or are you being serious as to your situation?


No I am not joking. If I am going to evacuate it would be on Wednesday morning.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Infrared minus Water Vapor (IR-WV) imagery shows some differences in cloud top temps between IR and WV imagery. Generally speaking, negative values support the idea of overshooting cloud tops. Having overshooting cloud tops in the CDO is a good sign Irene is strengthening her core.




Keep in mind this is an hour old image. Right now, cloud tops are even cooler.

And with that I'm audi5k. Later all
nice image
Quoting P451:



It's.... ALWAYS on lol. It's never been off throughout Irene's life.

Amazing really. Not sure what the purpose of it is anymore other than to maybe trick individuals who have not yet caught on to it's behavior.


Pointless.
Quoting gregcowd:
I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?


Too early to make that call. Wait until Wed
Quoting NJcat3cane:
what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm of 8pm?


5PM
Quoting NJcat3cane:
what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm of 8pm?


5pm. The cone only changes at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, 11PM. It all comes in 6 hour intervals as those are the full advisory packages.
19:45:00 PM UTC
19.6N 68.1W
Dvorak: T4.1
986.8 hPa
Weakening Flag: OFF
Rapid Weakening Flag: OFF

--
no weakening flag from this information..
Very nice Terra-MODIS capture of the scene:

Click for a much larger 250 meter resolution image.

1538. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:
it looks like it it may stay this too the WNW of r Hispaniola thats good news


It does, Taz, and once it gets beyond ~72W Dominica's northern coastline starts dropping in latitude - that combined with Irene gaining latitude means a rapid increase in distance from land.

Once she passes there that is where land interaction will cease to be a hindrance.

More rapid intensification, if atmospheric support exists, will begin at that time.



can someone please post this chart? tia!

Quoting USAFwxguy:
Went back through to check and nobody covered the CIMMS update.

Notice at low levels that the trough is seen lifting out and the ATL ridge is nosing toward the west, to the north of Irene:

-3hr


Current:


Also of note is the TX high eastern periphery weakening.

Quoting Grandpato4:


My daughter is in North Raleigh out towards Wake Forest. I think we would be fine there. No large trees and she has a large brick home.
that's pretty far inland... you should be fine. Clayton is 20/30 miles closer to ocean than downtown Raleigh itself. I'm about 100 miles from coast, so I'm in for it if NHC continues with SC landfall. Mrytle Beach will suffers BADLY if it hits there as major... maybe 40-55 billion dollar damage for Category 3/4 strength.
What do you think the cone will do at 5pm? We are on the OBX, Nags Head. Starting to worry...
Greg The NHC will have to act IMO by Tuesday morning with a hurricane watch or warning or TS watch or Warning. If the hurricane watch or warning is issued then you should shutter up before you leave.
1543. FLdewey
Last year it was grandMas now its grandPas.

The gullible factor of this blog is crazy.

I see Irene continues to become more impressive.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Afternoon........I see the models shifted further East......The best thing has actually happened MAYBE. If Irene can really become a Monster, she just might miss the ConUS completely. A CAT 3 into South Carolina seems to be the Current Trend. Not to let ones guard down as we are still 3-4 days out. A lot of shifts left and right can still occur. We often see Models over shift and have to come back the other way. KEEP WATCHING!!!


With that being said, this storm will have a hard time not to interact with the state of NC as she sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean
Quoting gregcowd:
I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?
wait till tomorrow PM and make the choice.
Quoting P451:


That's a very good question. Obviously temperature isn't an exact measure of height at any given place in the atmosphere but it's got to be pretty far up there to get that cold.

It's an answer I don't have.



I'll go with really tall with heavy convection underneath then. Thanks for responding to my question TomTaylor and P451
Sustaining that deep convection and seemingly fending off the dry to the south and west more now:

Quoting Bluestorm5:
that's pretty far inland... you should be fine. Clayton is 20/30 miles closer to ocean than downtown Raleigh itself. I'm about 100 miles from coast, so I'm in for it if NHC continues with SC landfall. Mrytle Beach will suffers BADLY if it hits there as major... maybe 40-55 billion dollar damage for Category 3/4 strength.


My daughter lived in Raleigh for Hurricane Fran and lost her house because of trees falling. She and her husband have moved and picked a lot with no trees on it.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Same with Hugo. My mom said people in SC thought it was going to recurve out to sea or NC coast, but it never turned and got stronger at same time. Gulf Stream are like HGH to hurricanes...


Ivan was going to Biloxi, 130 miles from us. 9 o'clock the night of the 15th, I got a phone call from my brother in Seattle, "What're you going to do?" What do you mean, what am I going to do? It's going to Biloxi.

It wasn't. And neither was Bertha heading for Myrtle Beach like we were told when we went to bed that night. Got up at 6 the next morning to iron hubby uniform and there she was, just creeping up on Cape Fear.

It ain't over 'til they're onshore sometimes.
1550. 7544
cone will shift east at 5pm? or stay the same
has it stalled?
Quoting gregcowd:
I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?
Quoting YouCaneDoIt:


Too early to make that call. Wait until Wed


He's gotta do it now or never. If you are leaving Wednesday morning, it's wise to put them up. I was watching the news at noon, and they said if you are leaving out of town the next couple of days, it's ok to put them up. If not, just wait to do so.
Quoting obxnagshead:
What do you think the cone will do at 5pm? We are on the OBX, Nags Head. Starting to worry...


The NHC has tried not to change the cone dramatically because of the margin of error that the models have portrayed.

I think that when the NOAA plane heads out to sample the atmosphere, we should definitely have a better idea as to where Irene is heading.
1554. air360
Quoting GBguy88:


I'd venture a guess that he'll pop up in Morehead City or Kill Devil Hills...those seem to be his cities of choice for NC hurricanes.
HA he just tweeted that he had no idea where his assignment would be and I tweeted back saying most likely Morehead/Atlantic Beach. Seems I'm not the only one who notices that they send him here often for NC storms.
Out for a few hours. Back later.
Quoting Drakoen:
I wonder if the parabolic shape and topography of Hispaniola is actually helping Irene, for the time being.


sometimes my man Drak needs a translator...I'm here to serve

parabolicLink

topographyLink
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
19:45:00 PM UTC
19.6N 68.1W
Dvorak: T4.1
986.8 hPa
Weakening Flag: OFF
Rapid Weakening Flag: OFF

--
no weakening flag from this information..


Where from?
1558. Thrawst
Guys... we are already preparing here. About 48 hours from the fringes and 60 hours from impact. Nassau gon' get it.
1559. DFWjc
Quoting YouCaneDoIt:


Too early to make that call. Wait until Wed


so he should delay his flight to put up his storm windows on the day he leaves...LOL i'd put them up tuesday anyway...
Quoting Hurricanes12:


The NHC has tried not to change the cone dramatically because of the margin of error that the models have portrayed.

I think that when the NOAA plane heads out to sample the atmosphere, we should definitely have a better idea as to where Irene is heading.


Thanks for the info. I will be checking the 5pm cone for sure!!
Quoting air360:
HA he just tweeted that he had no idea where his assignment would be and I tweeted back saying most likely Morehead/Atlantic Beach. Seems I'm not the only one who notices that they send him here often for NC storms.


If he is headed to Atlantic Beach then we are probably going to get lucky. Isn't Cantori normally the one that misses the storm?
1562. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:


sometimes my man Drak needs a translator...I'm here to serve

parabolicLink

topographyLink


lol
Quoting gregcowd:
I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?



you should be able to make a sound decision with tomorrow's 11am update. I am in Jupiter and when I will be making mine. Today? Not so much.
Quoting mcluvincane:


With that being said, this storm will have a hard time not to interact with the state of NC as she sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean


NO Question that would be the Case unless she becomes a much larger Storm which might make the hook a little sharper......but, i don't think the turn would be that great even with a CAT 5.....This has a Possible HUGO storm all over it.
That would be pretty safe with no large trees around her house.  It's hard to make last minute plans because hurricanes can shift just before landfall.  With your wife's condition, I would make the call by Wednesday to evacuate if the track doesn't change much.  Best of luck!


Quoting Grandpato4:


My daughter is in North Raleigh out towards Wake Forest. I think we would be fine there. No large trees and she has a large brick home.

Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Where from?


IRENE
Yesterday evening the blog comments were so fast I didn't even try. Will be in warp speed after people get home from school and work I bet.
looks like s stall to me
If the current track holds tropical storm watches would be required for se Florida since the wind field is large the only way south florida would not see anything is if Irene goes to the east of the bahamas
Quoting sarahjola:
can someone please post this chart? tia!

Quoting USAFwxguy:
Went back through to check and nobody covered the CIMMS update.

Notice at low levels that the trough is seen lifting out and the ATL ridge is nosing toward the west, to the north of Irene:

-3hr


Current:


Also of note is the TX high eastern periphery weakening.





3 HRS AGO:



CURRENT:




Not sure why that isn't workin...
I am not sure how everyone is so sure on where the storm is going and discounting the gom so quickly when the storm is so far awy? Just asking. I live in the Panahndle and don't want to be caught off guard.
1574. snotly
when you start to see the 'buzz-saw' upper level outflow from the convection.... not a good thing, deepening low pressure over the CDO.
Quoting Drakoen:


lol
Drak does it look like the nhc is going to shift the track east again
When do you think either tropical storm/hurricane watches or warnings will be issued for South Florida, if even at all?
guys i think the storm has stall or moveing vary slow
Quoting obxnagshead:
What do you think the cone will do at 5pm? We are on the OBX, Nags Head. Starting to worry...


A slight shift East.
Quoting presslord:


sometimes my man Drak needs a translator...I'm here to serve

parabolicLink

topographyLink


Is it OK to say the Carolina's might have a Problem coming??
Quoting floodzonenc:
That would be pretty safe with no large trees around her house.  It's hard to make last minute plans because hurricanes can shift just before landfall.  With your wife's condition, I would make the call by Wednesday to evacuate if the track doesn't change much.  Best of luck!





Yes, Wednesday is my decision day I believe.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


How'd it go?
1582. wpb
Quoting Seflhurricane:
If the current track holds tropical storm watches would be required for se Florida since the wind field is large the only way south florida would not see anything is if Irene goes to the east of the bahamas
on tuesday?
Quoting FLdewey:
Last year it was grandMas now its grandPas.

The gullible factor of this blog is crazy.

I see Irene continues to become more impressive.


lol, I doubt an old man would be on this blog period, adding his own picture and everything...give me a break...
1584. 7544
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
looks like s stall to me


yeap agree now what

do we wait for the high to pusg her west

or the trof to turn here nnw take your pick
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
looks like s stall to me


No. You can actually still see it on the long range radar loop out of San Juan, PR... moving WNW, slightly slower than earlier, but still moving, 10-15kt
with this stalling sooner then forcast look for the mode runs too turn back W
Quoting gregcowd:
I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?


Leave them off. What's your address. I'll come by and loot, I mean check on your place.

Seriously If you are leaving on Wednesday I'd put your shutters up just to be safe.
Quoting Grandpato4:


If he is headed to Atlantic Beach then we are probably going to get lucky. Isn't Cantori normally the one that misses the storm?
Other way. When Jim Cantore goes to a place, he is known to scare people away from the area because when he's there... something bad happens. Anyway, he might go to Wilmington this time because this is unlikely it'll curve to the Banks and shave it again as usual. This is HAZEL all over again...
Gregcowd definately tomorrow by 5 if they still think it is a threat
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


IRENE


Ah ok, thanks!
Quoting gregcowd:
When do you think either tropical storm/hurricane watches or warnings will be issued for South Florida, if even at all?


Tomorrow.
If PressLord would re-emerge into a dress......it might scare the hell out Irene and send her Packing.......ROFLMAO
Quoting gregcowd:
When do you think either tropical storm/hurricane watches or warnings will be issued for South Florida, if even at all?
Very likely ts watches tomorrow
Quoting gregcowd:
When do you think either tropical storm/hurricane watches or warnings will be issued for South Florida, if even at all?


Currently the forecast for S. FL is tropical storm conditions possible Wed Night-Thurs.

If they're gonna do it, and if they feel it's necessary, they'll do it in the next day or so.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How'd it go?

Horrible, and still don't have power. Thank god for power generators.
1596. Drakoen
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Drak does it look like the nhc is going to shift the track east again


Slight shift east. Much of Florida should still be in the coast. Perhaps western Florida will be out of the cone.
1597. P451
Quoting atmoaggie:
Very nice Terra-MODIS capture of the scene:

Click for a much larger 250 meter resolution image.



Very nice. 5 hours ago but very nice. Aqua might be hitting it soon. Maybe a 17z shot or so.

Quoting RitaEvac:


lol, I doubt an old man would be on this blog period, adding his own picture and everything...give me a break...


I am not the only old man here and I am quite adept at computers thanks to a class or two.
How likely is it that Irene does end up curving out to sea?
I may have to buy shutters at this rate... people building house near me will leave debris all over the place.
Yes.   Offense still very suspect.  Cannot convert on 3rd down.  Oh well...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Is it OK to say the Carolina's might have a Problem coming??

Quoting Tazmanian:
with this stalling sooner then forcast look for the mode runs too turn back W


I was wundering about just that
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Other way. When Jim Cantore goes to a place, he is known to scare people away from the area because when he's there... something bad happens. Anyway, he might go to Wilmington this time because this is unlikely it'll curve to the Banks and shave it again as usual. This is HAZEL all over again...


If I recall correctly Hazel did quite a bit of damage well inland.
ok i was gone for awhile has irene interacted with hispanola or not really am in the ft lauderdale area and it is still pretty humid and hot the thought of losing power is not a pleasant one...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I may have to buy shutters at this rate... people building house near me will leave debris all over the place.


Tell you what, shutters or that 3/4" plywood we used (have the shutters now) are worth their weight in gold for peace of mind alone.
1606. wpb
guess the nhc has thrown the gfdl
model in the trash
Quoting P451:


Very nice. 5 hours ago but very nice. Aqua might be hitting it soon. Maybe a 17z shot or so.

Aqua usually visits there at about 19 Z...so images available soon.

Unless the swath missed Irene.
Looks like Irene is moving again off to the NW, can't wait to see how strong she's gotten. Those cold cloud tops seem to be here to stay!
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO Question that would be the Case unless she becomes a much larger Storm which might make the hook a little sharper......but, i don't think the turn would be that great even with a CAT 5.....This has a Possible HUGO storm all over it.


Yeah, unfortunatley this will probaly be an historical event that will take place. Loss of life, homes and businesses. What a bad situation
Quoting Drakoen:


Slight shift east. Much of Florida should still be in the coast. Perhaps western Florida will be out of the cone.


Will her current stall effect her track?
looks like it stuck alot blogger already think this one is "out of here"
Shut yo mouth...  Hazel gives me the SHIVERS...  Worst wind damage to inland areas that anyone can remember.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Other way. When Jim Cantore goes to a place, he is known to scare people away from the area because when he's there... something bad happens. Anyway, he might go to Wilmington this time because this is unlikely it'll curve to the Banks and shave it again as usual. This is HAZEL all over again...

Quoting lowerbamagirl:


My mom was in that rehab/nursing center right across the street from the Hard Rock and we moved her about two weeks before. I remember going to see what happened to the nursing home and was never able to even locate where it had been. Lived in Mobile at the time and had a fair amount of damage ourselves...never understood why there was so little coverage of the truly devestated areas. Used to camp at Waveland and went last year...still devastated!


We always figured we weren't newsworthy because our governor pulled it all together and got things taken care of pretty quickly. We love Haley Barbour. Glad you got your mother out when you did. Since Katrina I keep 2 weeks worth of food and lots of water and ice on hand during hurricane season. It was dangerous here afterward, people murdered for ice, etc. I don't want to have to leave my house after the storm hits.
Quoting Grandpato4:


If I recall correctly Hazel did quite a bit of damage well inland.


Yes. Some of the highest wind gusts ever recorded in Mid Atlantic cities like Philadelphia and Baltimore came from Hazel.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Drak does it look like the nhc is going to shift the track east again


Any further east and it'll be a fish storm (apologies to the inhabitants of PR for the insensitivity).
Irene's gonna be a pesky one. I think shes just trying to fool the models. Just when you "experts" think you have a handle one she stalls out, and has you scratching your head.
thanks! but i can't see it. do i have to click on something? tia!
1571. charlottefl 8:13 PM GMT on August 22, 2011 +0
Quoting sarahjola:
can someone please post this chart? tia!

Quoting USAFwxguy:
Went back through to check and nobody covered the CIMMS update.

Notice at low levels that the trough is seen lifting out and the ATL ridge is nosing toward the west, to the north of Irene:

-3hr


Current:


Also of note is the TX high eastern periphery weakening.





3 HRS AGO:



CURRENT:



Quoting gregcowd:
When do you think either tropical storm/hurricane watches or warnings will be issued for South Florida, if even at all?


Wait and see what the NHC dictates and where the storm goes. Watches are made 48 hrs prior, warnings 36 hours.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Horrible, and still don't have power. Thank god for power generators.


So, packed more of a punch than expected?



the trough is there but its leaving fast and with irenes stalling we'll see
Quoting Grandpato4:


I am not the only old man here and I am quite adept at computers thanks to a class or two.


Ok, then I'll take your word.
Quoting Grandpato4:


If I recall correctly Hazel did quite a bit of damage well inland.
yep... 100 MPH winds as far as Philly. My grandpa (not alive anymore)remembered the storm as being the worst ever.
1623. JNCali

Quoting TampaSpin:
If PressLord would re-emerge into a dress......it might scare the hell out Irene and send her Packing.......ROFLMAO
LOL  he could jump on a jet ski, head into the Atlantic playing a flute and the Irene would follow him!!
1624. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:
If PressLord would re-emerge into a dress......it might scare the hell out Irene and send her Packing.......ROFLMAO


That would depend on what kind of girl Irene is. That might cause a landfall more than anything else.

You know, moments after Taz asked 97L if he could fart for it... it became TS Irene out of nowhere.

Be careful when pushing this ladies' buttons. She doesn't react well.

Quoting oceanblues32:
ok i was gone for awhile has irene interacted with hispanola or not really am in the ft lauderdale area and it is still pretty humid and hot the thought of losing power is not a pleasant one...




its staying this off shor too the WNW wish all so look like it has stall its moveing vary little or not at all
Quoting Grandpato4:


I am not the only old man here..


No, you're not.
1627. 7544
wow if irene did stalled that gives time for the ridge to build back in correct ?
1628. Drakoen
Quoting hurricanealley:


Will her current stall effect her track?


Yes. The models that want to take her farther west have her moving faster.
So, if I am getting this right...

- Irene is building a strong inner core due to the very deep convection.


- Irene doesn't have a good rest of the system because of dry air for the time being.
Quoting Grandpato4:


If he is headed to Atlantic Beach then we are probably going to get lucky. Isn't Cantori normally the one that misses the storm?


I don't know about that. I always considered him the Angel of Death. If he shows up in your town, get out. LOL.
It looks as if Irene has been drifting very slowly towards the NW. If that direction holds or even a WNW to NW track for the next day or so, that's very good news for Florida, with Irene probably missing the state by a wider margin than currently anticipated.

I know it's a little early to rule a Florida miss out completely, but the system seems to be continuing to gain latitude more than projected.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Ok, then I'll take your word.


I have been around here long before Irene and made it quite clear where I live so I am not some fly by night blogger.
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol, I doubt an old man would be on this blog period, adding his own picture and everything...give me a break...



RITA YOU STILL BAKING OVER THERE...whats the latest on the high its still over you guys..
Quoting Abacosurf:
I watched Floyd eat through a 40 foot high dune 100 feet back. This was on a 7 mile long island in Abaco which storm surge mostly went around. You will have a storm surge....

If your dune is bigger than that and your house is built 30' above sea level than sure.....What the heck....

If it is over cat 3 you have got to leave IMO.


My job is to respond to disasters and if I have learned nothing from doing this for years, it's that it is always safer to leave and leave early. If you get into trouble during the storm, and you mentioned your wife being sick, then you should make plans to leave because you will not be able to get anyone to come out to help you in the middle of the storm. You will be on your own and have to ride it out. They will not allow first responders to go out in the middle of a storm, it's for their safety and to be able to keep the around to work the aftermath. So, better safe than sorry and if you make reservations at someplace nice, you can just consider it a mini vacation, or use this opportunity to visit some family and get that obligation out of the way!! Then you can go home after it passes and everyone will be happy. There is nothing to lose by leaving, but lots to lose by staying. Why worry yourself, just go someplace safe and enjoy!!
Quoting Grandpato4:


Thank you. I just hate to leave if we don't have to since my wife is sick. I am wondering if we would be fine in our home because we do have a dune and are set back from that a bit more.


I am not a doom and gloom person, but keep your eye on this storm. If over the next 24 hours or so, it looks to be headed your way, and your wife is ill, you need to be where you are safe and have available care. Do not take chances - especially being ocean front. You have the potential of being cut off from those who can help you. Listen to your local forecast and, if evacuation is recommended, heed the recommendation. Better to leave and say, "that was nothing" than the alternative. I have had to evacuate before, and I have no regrets about it. I lived to tell the tale. You take care. No need to panic, just use common sense:-)
1636. Drakoen
According to this, Irene has a ways to go to rebuild her eyewall:

Quoting watchdog40:
I am not sure how everyone is so sure on where the storm is going and discounting the gom so quickly when the storm is so far awy? Just asking. I live in the Panahndle and don't want to be caught off guard.
I think you are OK in the Florida Panhandle but just keep an eye on Irene, the trough coming down from the north is suppose to turn Irene North then Northeast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So, packed more of a punch than expected?

Well, imagine the sound of a thousand screaming demons banging on your windows for three hours. She strengthened overland into a hurricane. With the eye passing over me.
1639. 7544
so did she stall
Can someone explain where you see Irene stalling? Still looks WNW.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


I don't know about that. I always considered him the Angel of Death. If he shows up in your town, get out. LOL.


I must have him confused with another guy. In all honesty I do not watch TWC so much as I used to.



big weekness
Quoting Grandpato4:


I have been around here long before Irene and made it quite clear where I live so I am not some fly by night blogger.


Not many people would make an account in May for the express purposes of trolling and making up stories in August. I guess its good that we have the join dates now.
Irene should pump the ridge in a few days :D
Keep honking "stall"... she's reloading! And she'll be ready for bear.
Quoting 7544:
wow if irene did stalled that gives time for the ridge to build back in correct ?



i think you would no the ander on your own yes it would give move time for the high too come back and yes it has stalled or moveing vary slow
Hasn't moved much at all:

Guessing that Florida will be outta the cone by tomorrow morning at 5 am. I think as soon as the GFDL model comes in line with all the others we'll see a dramatic eastward shift in the cone as that model seems to be the only thing keeping the projected track west of the model concensus.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes. The models that want to take her farther west have her moving faster.


Thanks Drak

Whats your thoughts on the latest Ukmet run?


Wonderful... a historical storm as MY FIRST HURRICANE to experience. In fact, 85% of NC have never experienced an major hurricane before... Hugo was 22 years ago and it's time for East Coast to get monster storm again, sadly.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well, imagine the sound of a thousand screaming demons banging on your windows for three hours. She strengthened overland into a hurricane. With the eye passing over me.


Nice, err...explanation.
1652. Drakoen
Quoting hurricanealley:


Thanks Drak

Whats your thoughts on the latest Ukmet run?




It has become more inline with the other models and is no longer and outlier as it has been along with the GFDL.
Click to make larger.
Quoting jbplefty:
Can someone explain where you see Irene stalling? Still looks WNW.




its not moveing it is move WNW but it has stalled or moveing vary slow
Quoting DookiePBC:
Guessing that Florida will be outta the cone by tomorrow morning at 5 am. I think as soon as the GFDL model comes in line with all the others we'll see a dramatic eastward shift in the cone as that model seems to be the only thing keeping the projected track west of the model concensus.


It seemed to be hanging the cone a little west of the consensus.

On the other hand... it's been quite a pesky model suggesting the S. FL monster.

Definitely an outlier.
No stall
Quoting Drakoen:
According to this, Irene has a ways to go to rebuild her eyewall:



That doesn't quite match up with radar though, does it?
I wasn't here in baltimore for Isabel, when the Inner Harbor flooded, but I'm not looking for a repeat performance from Irene.

The models have been a bit alarming with their intensities.
Quoting jbplefty:
Can someone explain where you see Irene stalling? Still looks WNW.


That's what I said... but no one reads. All you have to do is look on the radar loop. It is quite clear WNW.
1660. bwat
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wonderful... a historical storm as MY FIRST HURRICANE to experience. In fact, 85% of NC have never experienced an major hurricane before... Hugo was 22 years ago and it's time for East Coast to get monster storm again, sadly.


Careful what you wish for. I was 22 when Isabel hit us directly in NE NC, after going through bertha/fran in 96, and floyd in 99 I thought it would be a cool experiance myself. Isabel devestated NE NC and SE VA. See how exciting it is when you take cold showers for a month.
1661. Drakoen
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That doesn't quite match up with radar though, does it?


It does. I only see a partial eyewall on radar consistent with what we see on the microwave imagery.
The Very Strong High Pressure System should maintain itself over Central, West and North Texas most likely thru the end of August is what I am hearing locally in South Central Texas. East, southeast and Northeast Texas may get a little relief but it looks like we will have to wait until September just to get below 100? My Forecast is Clear and 104 to 107 next 7 to 10 days. Unfortunately drought continues and this should protect most of the gulf from any tropical system?
Quoting spayandneuter:


My job is to respond to disasters and if I have learned nothing from doing this for years, it's that it is always safer to leave and leave early. If you get into trouble during the storm, and you mentioned your wife being sick, then you should make plans to leave because you will not be able to get anyone to come out to help you in the middle of the storm. You will be on your own and have to ride it out. They will not allow first responders to go out in the middle of a storm, it's for their safety and to be able to keep the around to work the aftermath. So, better safe than sorry and if you make reservations at someplace nice, you can just consider it a mini vacation, or use this opportunity to visit some family and get that obligation out of the way!! Then you can go home after it passes and everyone will be happy. There is nothing to lose by leaving, but lots to lose by staying. Why worry yourself, just go someplace safe and enjoy!!


Aw rats! This was meant for Grandpato4..........I am quote-lexic!
1664. kwgirl
Quoting Grandpato4:


I must have him confused with another guy. In all honesty I do not watch TWC so much as I used to.
I agree with you. In the early days of TWC, I used to watch faithfully and it seemed that Cantore was NEVER where the storm hit. At first I thought it was poor forcasting, then I realized that he clucks when he walks. LOL Can't have the star of TWC being killed by a hurricane.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, if I am getting this right...

- Irene is building a strong inner core due to the very deep convection.


- Irene doesn't have a good rest of the system because of dry air for the time being.


Why there might have been a slight interruption due to dry air earlier, the storm is certainly very healthy right now, and intensification should begin steadily shortly, in my opinion...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wonderful... a historical storm as MY FIRST HURRICANE to experience. In fact, 85% of NC have never experienced an major hurricane before... Hugo was 22 years ago and it's time for East Coast to get monster storm again, sadly.


At the rate you're worrying about it, you'll be a cardiac case casualty. Stop the hype.
Quoting ElConando:


Not many people would make an account in May for the express purposes of trolling and making up stories in August. I guess its good that we have the join dates now.
me too... most trolls I've seen so far joined on date few days before they trolls. I joined in August 2011 because I found this blog while searching for chatroom concerning about TS Emily.
Quoting bythegraceofgod:


We always figured we weren't newsworthy because our governor pulled it all together and got things taken care of pretty quickly. We love Haley Barbour. Glad you got your mother out when you did. Since Katrina I keep 2 weeks worth of food and lots of water and ice on hand during hurricane season. It was dangerous here afterward, people murdered for ice, etc. I don't want to have to leave my house after the storm hits.

That's how we felt here the year before you all. Completely forgotten and we were devastated, just blasted. (Our little town/county and billions in damages?) Then we took a direct hit from Dennis the very next summer. One, two punch arooney, but took care of things ourselves as best we could out here.

Insult to injury, when Katrina hit, we had hundreds of folks still in FEMA trailer parks and living with relatives who were thrown off waiting lists for housing because some dweeb in D.C. drew a 200 mile circle around NOLA and gave ALL those people priority for government housing.

Like nothing had ever happened to us.
1669. augfan
Quoting ElConando:


Wait and see what the NHC dictates and where the storm goes. Watches are made 48 hrs prior, warnings 36 hours.

Per local news in St. Aug, hurricane watch already in the works for West Palm Beach et al.
BTW, if anybody is planning to evac, do it now, later willl be horrible.
it´s raining cats and dogs
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes. The models that want to take her farther west have her moving faster.
If the ridge is what was pulling Her north, but now She is stalling. Wouldn't this tend to push Her back West alittle due to the ridge building back in?
I was just looking at the HWRF 12z and the GFS 18z... to me it looked like both moved every so slightly west.

Anyone know when the 18z HWRF starts?

Thanks
Quoting 7544:
eruo might be close to fla this run
WHY?
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Skye,
Thanks for posting that image. Looks like a storm quickly getting it's act together. Scary stuff. I pray for all in her path. Never thought I'd say it but thank God for the Texas Ridge.


I couldnt agree more! What part of houston are you in? where you here in Ike?
heavy rain and lightning!!!!!
Whats with all the west casting? Irene has been moving and is continuing to move WNW.

***VOICE YOUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THIS.***

Stop shouting

Poof
i still cant rule out a USA hit
Quoting Drakoen:


It does. I only see a partial eyewall on radar consistent with what we see on the microwave imagery.


Okay.

Drak, do you see any other factors going against Irene other than that dry air? Also, where do you believe it will make landfall and at what intensity AT THIS TIME?
1680. ncstorm
Quoting bwat:


Careful what you wish for. I was 22 when Isabel hit us directly in NE NC, after going through bertha/fran in 96, and floyd in 99 I thought it would be a cool experiance myself. Isabel devestated NE NC and SE VA. See how exciting it is when you take cold showers for a month.


Didnt even have running water for bertha or fran for two weeks..its nothing like seeing the hummer of National Guard armory truck parked right outside your door..
Quoting bwat:


Careful what you wish for. I was 22 when Isabel hit us directly in NE NC, after going through bertha/fran in 96, and floyd in 99 I thought it would be a cool experiance myself. Isabel devestated NE NC and SE VA. See how exciting it is when you take cold showers for a month.
That was sarcasm... I do not want a major.
Quoting Drakoen:


It does. I only see a partial eyewall on radar consistent with what we see on the microwave imagery.


Looks a little better on the color image, but not much.
Quoting Grandpato4:


I have been around here long before Irene and made it quite clear where I live so I am not some fly by night blogger.
You don't have to qualify yourself. For God sakes you ought to give him a old fashioned whippin!!
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:



big weekness
how come shes not taking the bait?
Quoting DookiePBC:
Guessing that Florida will be outta the cone by tomorrow morning at 5 am. I think as soon as the GFDL model comes in line with all the others we'll see a dramatic eastward shift in the cone as that model seems to be the only thing keeping the projected track west of the model concensus.

The squirrels can put their weapons away until the next tropical threat appears :)
Quoting ElConando:



The GFDL is a persistent bugger.


Is it sticking to it's guns?
I just found the site the other day and I like it so i joined..hope to pick up a few things here and there I have always liked the weather and this seems to be good site to learn.
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:



big weekness
Can you please explain to me what this means? I see what you are talking about but not sure how it all works. Thanks in advance...
1689. Drakoen
Quoting scooster67:
If the ridge is what was pulling Her north, but now She is stalling. Wouldn't this tend to push Her back West alittle due to the ridge building back in?


The ridge is keeping her from moving north. The faster the system is the farther west it can get because the trough would not be there in time to kick it out.
Morehead City NWS updated their long-term forecast in the past two hours...

ALL EYES WILL BE ON IRENE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
COULD BEGIN TO GET THE FIRST BANDS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LATER FRI
SO CONT CHC POPS THRU THE DAY AND INCREASED TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT
SRN TIER. TRACK FROM NHC AND MDL OUTPUT CONTS TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IRENE TO THE E. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN
NC GIVEN CONSENSUS THAT IRENE WILL BE TRACKING IN THE GENERAL AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS
SAT INTO SUN. APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING TO THE N LATER SUN
INTO MON SO GRAD DECREASED POPS FROM S TO N INTO MON. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 7OS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS SHLD CONT TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS FROM
NHC FOR IRENE.


Thanks to whoever it was whose assistant principal's father works there. I assume you called them earlier to update it... :)

Quoting islander101010:
how come shes not taking the bait?




she has stalled thats why
1692. scCane
What time will the next model runs have the updated upper-air synoptics incorporated in them?
PER NOAA MHC

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...FAIRLY QUIET WX EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
HIGH PRES PASSES OFFSHORE TO THE N. AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO THE
SE WED INTO THU COULD SEE SOME SHRA ESPCLY SRN TIER SO KEPT SMALL
POP THESE AREAS.

ALL EYES WILL BE ON IRENE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
COULD BEGIN TO GET THE FIRST BANDS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LATER FRI
SO CONT CHC POPS THRU THE DAY AND INCREASED TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT
SRN TIER. TRACK FROM NHC AND MDL OUTPUT CONTS TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IRENE TO THE E. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN
NC GIVEN CONSENSUS THAT IRENE WILL BE TRACKING IN THE GENERAL AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
BASED ON THIS INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS
SAT INTO SUN. APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING TO THE N LATER SUN
INTO MON SO GRAD DECREASED POPS FROM S TO N INTO MON. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 7OS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS SHLD CONT TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS FROM
NHC FOR IRENE.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wonderful... a historical storm as MY FIRST HURRICANE to experience. In fact, 85% of NC have never experienced an major hurricane before... Hugo was 22 years ago and it's time for East Coast to get monster storm again, sadly.

I'm not sure "wonderful" would be the word I would use for a major hurricane. I went thru the eye of Hurricane Hugo and I wouldn't wish that type of devistation on anyone. We had 4 walls left standing in my apartment and didn't have electricty for almost a month. It wasn't my idea of "wonderful".
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Okay.

Drak, do you see any other factors going against Irene other than that dry air? Also, where do you believe it will make landfall and at what intensity AT THIS TIME?


Yeah, and who will win the wildcard this year?
lol
Based on the size of Irene, I think that it is likely (almost inevitable) that they will issue TS Warnings eventually along the FL coast. Considering that this should be a major hurricane at the point that it reaches the latitude of S FL, the TS windfield will be large enough to incorporate the eastern coastline of the state. That is if the center comes anywhere within 150 miles of the FL coastline. JMO
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nice, err...explanation.
It's a little dramatic but accurate. It's no fun going through a hurricane. Plus Dad has to pay thousands of dollars.
Starting to fill in the gap to the north, strengthening should resume in 24 hours or so.
Air Force releasing dropsondes off of the east coast
Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 300mb
Coordinates: 31.0N 77.1W
Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the SE (126°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
1700. Drakoen
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Okay.

Drak, do you see any other factors going against Irene other than that dry air? Also, where do you believe it will make landfall and at what intensity AT THIS TIME?


Dry air will be the main factor and the low level inflow getting disrupted as Irene gets closer to Hispaniola is the other factor. It's hard to say where it will make landfall because the models keep shifting around. I'll be able to give you a better idea tomorrow.
If it was Fran, I may have been driving the Hummer... LOL.  We were in Wrightsville Beach.
Quoting ncstorm:


Didnt even have running water for bertha or fran for two weeks..its nothing like seeing the hummer of National Guard armory truck parked right outside your door..

1703. bwat
Quoting Drakoen:


The ridge is keeping her from moving north. The faster the system is the farther west it can get because the trough would not be there in time to kick it out.
Is it at all possible she is slowing down because she is feeling the influence of the weakness and is preparing to make a turn? Honest question, I'm still learning.
1704. FLdewey
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


That's what I said... but no one reads. All you have to do is look on the radar loop. It is quite clear WNW.


Unfortunately the bulk of posters aren't old enough to drive... and school is now out for the day. Not a lot of reading, just a lot of re-posting each other.

Irene continues on her journey... should be an interesting ride.
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Can you please explain to me what this means? I see what you are talking about but not sure how it all works. Thanks in advance...




it means 2 things


1 it could move in the weak spot and go out too sea


or 2 the weak spot could close up and the storm could hit land all so the storm seem like it has stalled out a littl or slowed way day to the slower it moves the weak spot in the high will close up
Quoting Tazmanian:
i still cant rule out a USA hit


Well, a USA hit is the most likely scenario here, not the outlier. Maybe you meant to say you can't rule out a recurve?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


At the rate you're worrying about it, you'll be a cardiac case casualty. Stop the hype.
I'm known to overhype stuff in my family... sorry. I do know it still can go somewhere else or other stuff. I am expecting a major to SC/NC coast, but things can happen in a hurry. Last night, I talked to Levi and ask him if this is another overhyped NC canes that recuvrves (Hurricane Earl for example)? He said it's not recurving for sure, but not sure where it'll hit either.
Increasing deep convection should be able to help rebuild that eyewall.

Quoting Tazmanian:
i still cant rule out a USA hit


I don't think that's a hard thing to realize
There are actually three birds in the air right now... I can only display 2 at a time.



LOL... great minds think alike.  Also a Pirate here!  ARRRRGGGHHHH!
Quoting ecupirate:
PER NOAA MHC

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...FAIRLY QUIET WX EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
HIGH PRES PASSES OFFSHORE TO THE N. AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO THE
SE WED INTO THU COULD SEE SOME SHRA ESPCLY SRN TIER SO KEPT SMALL
POP THESE AREAS.

ALL EYES WILL BE ON IRENE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
COULD BEGIN TO GET THE FIRST BANDS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LATER FRI
SO CONT CHC POPS THRU THE DAY AND INCREASED TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT
SRN TIER. TRACK FROM NHC AND MDL OUTPUT CONTS TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IRENE TO THE E. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN
NC GIVEN CONSENSUS THAT IRENE WILL BE TRACKING IN THE GENERAL AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
BASED ON THIS INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS
SAT INTO SUN. APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING TO THE N LATER SUN
INTO MON SO GRAD DECREASED POPS FROM S TO N INTO MON. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 7OS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS SHLD CONT TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS FROM
NHC FOR IRENE.

Quoting kwgirl:
I agree with you. In the early days of TWC, I used to watch faithfully and it seemed that Cantore was NEVER where the storm hit. At first I thought it was poor forcasting, then I realized that he clucks when he walks. LOL Can't have the star of TWC being killed by a hurricane.


Now that NBC owns TWC, please send in Al Roker as a sacrifice. And the crowd cheers!

1713. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:




it means 2 things


1 it could move in the weak spot and go out too sea


or 2 the weak spot could close up and the storm could hit land all so the storm seem like it has stalled out a littl or slowed way day to the slower it moves the weak spot in the high will close up


would a stall make it more or less of a monster storm?
1714. ncstorm
thats a lotta of rain 5 day total

Quoting spayandneuter:


Aw rats! This was meant for Grandpato4..........I am quote-lexic!


Well, it's still good advice for everyone. LOL
Ok, I don't understand, if everyone is saying it is moving further west, then why would Florida be out of the cone by tomorrow? That would make it more in the cone, correct?
Quoting Bassfishing123:
I just found the site the other day and I like it so i joined..hope to pick up a few things here and there I have always liked the weather and this seems to be good site to learn.


Welcome... picked a heck of a time to get in da tent.

Give it some time, you'll figure out who to pay attention to and who to chuckle at.
1718. lucreto
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Increasing deep convection should be able to help rebuild that eyewall.



Don't think so currently in a severe weakening trend.
i have news for you your models have no idea where irene is going...they are shifting to the east now because they have 3 short wave trofs coming down in the next 5 days...thats why the strong shift to the east..they have no idea how deep those trofs will be so they are playing it safe for now...if that a/b high starts to build further west and the high over texas pulls back to the nw in the 4 corners area ...then your models will start to shift back towards the west...the bottom line here is irene is not going anywhere anytime soon and its still open for anyone from brownsville to to maine could be affected ...so just because you are not in the cone do not let your guard down until a more certain path is established by irene...
1720. P451


Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Increasing deep convection should be able to help rebuild that eyewall.



Definitely, shouldn't take as long as it did last time, especially since it doesn't really have to start from scratch.
Quoting floodzonenc:
LOL... great minds think alike.  Also a Pirate here!  ARRRRGGGHHHH!



Well of course we have great minds! We are pirates!
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Well, a USA hit is the most likely scenario here, not the outlier. Maybe you meant to say you can't rule out a recurve?




dont put words in too my mouth



and no i did not meant too say it will recurve





i said i cant rule out that this storm could still hit the USA
Been a while since anyone posted the Rainbow image of DOOOOOOM!!!

Quoting JohnsIslandJoe:

I'm not sure "wonderful" would be the word I would use for a major hurricane. I went thru the eye of Hurricane Hugo and I wouldn't wish that type of devistation on anyone. We had 4 walls left standing in my apartment and didn't have electricty for almost a month. It wasn't my idea of "wonderful".
again, that was sarcasm. I'm aware of major hurricane's strength and it's bad news for NC/SC.
1726. Grothar
Quoting Drakoen:


The ridge is keeping her from moving north. The faster the system is the farther west it can get because the trough would not be there in time to kick it out.


Drak, you are giving very good analyses today. Wish you did more of them. Very easy to understand.
1727. ncstorm
Quoting floodzonenc:
If it was Fran, I may have been driving the Hummer... LOL.  We were in Wrightsville Beach.



Oh I was farther inland..but it was the best sight to them roll up with water for our neighborhood..
Quoting Drakoen:


The ridge is keeping her from moving north. The faster the system is the farther west it can get because the trough would not be there in time to kick it out.
Sorry. I am at work and said that all wrong.

The trough is pulling it north, so a stall means to me that the trough is not picking Her up.
Quoting DFWjc:


would a stall make it more or less of a monster storm?



heck no a stall means it will have more time overe water be for land fall

Topsail Island, NC, Pre-Bertha 1996

Lovely LARGE dunes

Irene appears to be trying to fill in that dry spot north of the core, too.
1733. intampa
i read the blog lots and really like all the personalities there are. one thing that will be fun is when the next storm comes through and it has florida in the cone ( which they all do at some point) even when florida is in the cone consistently like with irene .....people will discredit it because all along irene was going to florida.. its florida.. all models are gelling on florida. now look where its going. all those who say dont watch the models more than a couple of days out are right again.
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).
1735. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:



heck no a stall means it will have more time overe water be for land fall


i only ask, maybe something like the front north of it would cause some disturbance to the developing storm..
1736. Drakoen
Quoting bwat:
Is it at all possible she is slowing down because she is feeling the influence of the weakness and is preparing to make a turn? Honest question, I'm still learning.


She is nearing the weakness but the flow under the base of the trough is very weak.
Quoting lucreto:
Wow Irene is currently experiencing huge outflow issues due to Hispanola, and looks very disorganized would not be surprised to see the NHC make this a Tropical Storm later.


You're joking right? If anything from this point out NHC will be upgrading Irene. Storm is at one the healthiest peaks in its lifetime thus far, and continues to build out convection around the center which itself is surrounded in very cold, deep cloud tops...all signs of better organization and impending steady strengthening...
Quoting Orcasystems:
There are actually three birds in the air right now... I can only display 2 at a time.





I think that plane shown near Cuba is a glitch with Tropical Atlantic. The dropsonde data shown is from a mission for Emily on August 4th.
Quoting Tazmanian:




dont put words in too my mouth



and no i did not meant too say it will recurve





i said i cant rule out that this storm could still hit the USA


Well, Taz, you get the "Mr. Obvious Award" for August 22, 2011.

Yeah, I can't rule it out either...since a US strike is the likely end result here.
Same location.


Immediately post-Bertha



56 days later, post-Fran.

If you live in a beachhouse, LEAVE when they tell you to.
Quoting jbplefty:


I remember that...the high built back in and we were all scrambling and in a complete panic. Lesson learned...be prepared and stay vigilant until it passes.


I also remember that well. Here in S Fla we were told that the threat, if any, wouldn't come until the following Monday or Tuesday, so keep your weekend plans. We did, and awoke Saturday morning in Key West to a town freaking.
Quoting Tazmanian:




it means 2 things


1 it could move in the weak spot and go out too sea


or 2 the weak spot could close up and the storm could hit land all so the storm seem like it has stalled out a littl or slowed way day to the slower it moves the weak spot in the high will close up
So could this mean a more westward track? Thank you!
1743. 7544
new convection building to the west right over land interesting
1744. Drakoen
Quoting Grothar:


Drak, you are giving very good analyses today. Wish you did more of them. Very easy to understand.


What? Make videos and write a big ol blog. I don't think I can commit to something like that.
any way the nhc is about too day the 5pm update
Quoting P451:


That's a very good question. Obviously temperature isn't an exact measure of height at any given place in the atmosphere but it's got to be pretty far up there to get that cold.

It's an answer I don't have.



Quoting DookiePBC:
Been a while since anyone posted the Rainbow image of DOOOOOOM!!!



Well you definitely didn't post the latest image, she looks better in the latest image here...

Quoting treehuggingsister:
Same location.


Immediately post-Bertha



56 days later, post-Fran.

If you live in a beachhouse, LEAVE when they tell you to.

Fran sure did do her share of roof eating.
Quoting cloudburst2011:
i have news for you your models have no idea where irene is going...they are shifting to the east now because they have 3 short wave trofs coming down in the next 5 days...thats why the strong shift to the east..they have no idea how deep those trofs will be so they are playing it safe for now...if that a/b high starts to build further west and the high over texas pulls back to the nw in the 4 corners area ...then your models will start to shift back towards the west...the bottom line here is irene is not going anywhere anytime soon and its still open for anyone from brownsville to to maine could be affected ...so just because you are not in the cone do not let your guard down until a more certain path is established by irene...


psychobabble
Quoting kylejourdan2006:


You're joking right? If anything from this point out NHC will be upgrading Irene. Storm is at one the healthiest peaks in its lifetime thus far, and continues to build out convection around the center which itself is surrounded in very cold, deep cloud tops...all signs of better organization and impending steady strengthening...
Correct.

On NOAA's ADT, best T-numbers, yet, for Irene. And coldest cloud top data, by far.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/tex t/09L-list.txt
1751. CCkid00
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).


what does this mean? what are they looking for? thanks
1752. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).


Do you believe the 18Z will be able to fully have this data ingested into them or 00Z? Given that they were sent out at 18Z I would assume they wouldn't be available until 00Z.
1755. Drakoen
Quoting scooster67:
Sorry. I am at work and said that all wrong.

The trough is pulling it north, so a stall means to me that the trough is not picking Her up.


That trough isn't going to pull her out as it will be moving on out to the northeast. It's the series of shortwaves in the jet stream that will be opening up the weakness.
NHC probably will shift the track eastward somewhat but probably not as far as the model consensus just yet.
1757. 900MB
Any recon out there?

Convection looks pretty strong, especially considering that this time yesterday we were supposed to be over the DR, not skirting it.
Quoting treehuggingsister:

Tosail Island, NC, Pre-Bertha 1996

Lovely LARGE dunes



The beach is nice down here...That is where I go when I go to the beach. Lots of unwanted creatures in the water though (i.e. Sharks, Jellyfish, Stingrays).
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
So could this mean a more westward track? Thank you!



well it could mean a more WNW track am not saying for sure the storm has stalled but it has been moveing vary slow the past few hrs and the more the storm moves slow the less of a ch that it will find that weak spot in the high for it too turn out too sea and the front could move out and the high too move back in
The join dates don't mean much. I've been on the Univ of Illinois and Michigan weather sites since early 1990's, and on weather underground since it was set up in 1990s.

At one time, we thought it was great getting real time weather from both Champaign and Ann Arbor...

just saying...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).
hmm that's cool

Quoting DookiePBC:
Been a while since anyone posted the Rainbow image of DOOOOOOM!!!

CDO looking better as cloud tops continent to cool
Quoting cloudburst2011:
i have news for you your models have no idea where irene is going...they are shifting to the east now because they have 3 short wave trofs coming down in the next 5 days...thats why the strong shift to the east..they have no idea how deep those trofs will be so they are playing it safe for now...if that a/b high starts to build further west and the high over texas pulls back to the nw in the 4 corners area ...then your models will start to shift back towards the west...the bottom line here is irene is not going anywhere anytime soon and its still open for anyone from brownsville to to maine could be affected ...so just because you are not in the cone do not let your guard down until a more certain path is established by irene...


Brownsville? come on now..
I gained 10 pounds that week.  Shop owners were giving away candy bars that they couldn't resale...  When residents returned, there were widespread barbeques...  Didn't like taking the cold showers in pitch darkness in the yacht club. 

We were there b/c people were driving up on jetskis and looting...  Mean people suck.
Quoting ncstorm:


Oh I was farther inland..but it was the best sight to them roll up with water for our neighborhood..

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I think that plane shown near Cuba is a glitch with Tropical Atlantic. The dropsonde data shown is from a mission for Emily on August 4th.


Agreed.. thats explains the mission 13 number

Ok, going to display 5 & 6 then
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
So could this mean a more westward track? Thank you!


Don't bet on it. While Irene may have slowed now, it is most likely very temporary and she should resume movement shortly. When storms undergo some structure organization, as Irene is currently doing, they tend to slow down and get themselves together (if you will) before they get moving again.
1766. yoboi
why do they have a plane in the GOM???
Quoting WxLogic:


Do you believe the 18Z will be able to fully have this data ingested into them or 00Z? Given that they were sent out at 18Z I would assume they wouldn't be available until 00Z.


It won't be on the 18Z run. The 18Z run is already being completed, it will be in the 00Z run.
am not buying any mode runs at this time
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).
Thanks Atmo.
That's good info.
I'd think they're sampling the upper air to see how strong the trough is.
1772. WxLogic
Quoting CCkid00:


what does this mean? what are they looking for? thanks


They are sampling of the atmosphere at specific (strategic) points in order to get inputted into a computer model in order to increase their accuracy.
So what the news with Irene, just got back from school and NHC is showing Hugo.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Fran sure did do her share of roof eating.

The way Fran came in chomping, we were really glad Bertha'd come through first and cleared out a lot of the flotsum and jetsam.

Holy Christmas, there was 34 years of built up trees, weak roofs, all sorts of things that Bertha's landfall uncovered that were cleared up and secure when Fran came calling.
This is interesting:

i do see a chance this will recurve and just brush the outerbanks of NC
1777. lucreto
Quoting cloudburst2011:



the models are coplete garbage...you have a better shot at wining the lottery ..


Only models worth anything are the GFS, ECMWF, and LSM
1778. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:



well it could mean a more WNW track am not saying for sure the storm has stalled but it has been moveing vary slow the past few hrs and the more the storm moves slow the less of a ch that it will find that weak spot in the high for it too turn out too sea and the front could move out and the high too move back in


you getting good at this taz thru the years
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......160NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 68.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

1780. WxLogic
Quoting afwxguy86:


It won't be on the 18Z run. The 18Z run is already being completed, it will be in the 00Z run.


That's what I though... but got to check just in case they have a buffer window where they can still add additional data before the final product is generated.
10,970m (35,991 ft) -39.5°C (-39.1°F)
Now look at that. It is a certain sign of a steadailiy strengthening system
1782. Titoxd
000
WTNT34 KNHC 222051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
No change in strength.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Fran sure did do her share of roof eating.


indeed
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).
what do you think this means?
Quoting 7544:


you getting good at this taz thru the years




thanks
Quoting charlottefl:
This is interesting:

~ Trof is lifting out??
5pm out, no change.
78hrs.

1791. Titoxd
Disco out:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 222052
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0
AND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES
AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED
BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING
IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO
LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST
TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


18z Surface Wind Analysis
1793. Grothar
The 5:00 is out start posting people
1794. drj27
im glad people stop asking if irene was going into the gulf jus saying
1795. ncstorm


track shifted to east..
Quoting WxLogic:


Do you believe the 18Z will be able to fully have this data ingested into them or 00Z? Given that they were sent out at 18Z I would assume they wouldn't be available until 00Z.
No, they surely are in 18 Z GFS (given it's 3 hour assimilation cycle).
Quoting CCkid00:


what does this mean? what are they looking for? thanks
A better handle on mid and upper level conditions. Better tracking of the trough, etc.
Will also give better, more thorough initial condition data to the 06 Z and 18 Z GFS model. (We usually only have this data at 0 and 12 UTC.)

And, as GFDL and HWRF use GFS for synoptic initial and boundary conditions, hopefully a better handle on conditions in those, as well.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).


Methinks the NHC folks have a real bad feeling about this one . . .
Drak and MississippiWx do you think the chances are increasing for a US recurve? Personally, I believe the current setup is favoring just that. I'm just waiting on the 00z runs before I give a final judgment.
Is it just me or does it appear on IR/WV imagery that an eye is beginning to form?
Quoting sarahjola:
what do you think this means?


It means theres gonna be alot of ufo sitings tonight and better model data
1801. ncstorm
Quoting RitaEvac:


Brownsville? come on now..



2 things have to happen the a/b high has to shift over the eastern gom and the high over texas pulls back nw towards the 4 corner area...then texas has irene in there back yard..
000
WTNT34 KNHC 222051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1804. WxLogic
SE FL is in the cone... that uncertainty will surely increase or decrease by 00Z.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
yep... 100 MPH winds as far as Philly. My grandpa (not alive anymore)remembered the storm as being the worst ever.


hazel had hurricane conditions in Toronto, ON
1807. ncstorm
1808. Drakoen
Quoting StarnzMet:
Drak and MississippiWx do you think the chances are increasing for a US recurve? Personally, I believe the current setup is favoring just that. I'm just waiting on the 00z runs before I give a final judgment.


Good question to ask after tonight's 00z runs.
Quoting treehuggingsister:

That's how we felt here the year before you all. Completely forgotten and we were devastated, just blasted. (Our little town/county and billions in damages?) Then we took a direct hit from Dennis the very next summer. One, two punch arooney, but took care of things ourselves as best we could out here.

Insult to injury, when Katrina hit, we had hundreds of folks still in FEMA trailer parks and living with relatives who were thrown off waiting lists for housing because some dweeb in D.C. drew a 200 mile circle around NOLA and gave ALL those people priority for government housing.

Like nothing had ever happened to us.
I think some of the FEMA reaction to NOLA was because there had been some governmental decisions that helped to create the disaster. Where other locations in other storms may have suffered just because of geography, there were, from my understanding of what I read prior to Katrina, some political "stuff" that should have been dealt with but wasn't. Your relatives and other hurricane victims in other parts of the GoM also became lower priority in part because Katrina was a horror situation that nobody expected to deal with and everybody wanted cleared away as quickly as possible. And even the "priority" cases from Katrina had difficulty with housing after 2005.

That's why, as far as you can, you should be trying to help yourself. When you can't do anything for yourself, you are basically left to the whim of fate and the vagaries of charity. And while people are well-meaning for the most part, that doesn't always get your problem solved.

Sure hope I don't have too bad of a time with this latest storm, to the point where I find myself completely dependent on outside agencies for assistance. However, you never know what life will bring.
Quoting Patrap:
Colder and Higher



Left turn Clyde....LOL
1811. nigel20
Quoting charlottefl:
This is interesting:


Is this suggesting that the troughs will not dig that deep down?
The lower moving image in post 1720 , posted at 4:21 by P451

shows the "outflow boundary" which crossed Providenciales
as a squall line giving me a 55 mph recorded wind gust
00
WTNT24 KNHC 222050
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......160NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 68.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

09L/H/I/C1
RI FLAG (FLAG)
MARK
19.35N68.17W






ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The beach is nice down here...That is where I go when I go to the beach. Lots of unwanted creatures in the water though (i.e. Sharks, Jellyfish, Stingrays).


Oh, NC beaches are famous for their wildlife, aren't they? But TONS of sharks' teeth! We always went to Onslow Beach, being Marines, or rode the ferry out to Hammock. Topsail was quite a drive, but I was the 'local artist' at a little store in Holly Ridge, so I knew a lot of folks down there. Loved it.
1816. ncstorm
Quoting kylejourdan2006:
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS.


ECWMF brings it right to wilmington..
000
WTNT44 KNHC 222052
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0
AND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES
AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED
BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING
IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO
LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST
TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Irene's working out that dry air, that gap of convection is closing in at the CDO has cloudtops of -80C over the eyewall. Based on that, I wouldn't be shocked if the recon finds at least lower pressures.
have a hard believing Irene will weaken north of the bahamas over the gulf stream
000
FONT14 KNHC 222051
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 1 6 13
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 2 7 5
TROPICAL STORM 14 11 12 13 18 23 38
HURRICANE 86 87 87 86 79 64 44
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 66 52 41 36 34 30 28
HUR CAT 2 17 26 29 28 25 19 10
HUR CAT 3 3 8 14 17 16 13 6
HUR CAT 4 X 1 3 4 4 2 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 80KT 85KT 90KT 95KT 100KT 100KT 80KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 32(41)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 32(45)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 28(47)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 21(39)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 12(41)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 11(36)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) 8(48)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 4(44)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 34(53) 4(57)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) 4(56)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 28(59) 1(60)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 21(60) 1(61)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 1(26)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 13(49) 1(50)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) X(24)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) 1(26)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) 1(27)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 59(63) 16(79) X(79)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 18(46) 1(47)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 1(22)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 59(81) 4(85) X(85)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 4(54) X(54)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) X(25)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 40(74) 2(76) X(76)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 2(45) X(45)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 56(81) 10(91) X(91) 1(92)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 20(62) X(62) X(62)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 46(73) 8(81) X(81) X(81)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13)

MAYAGUANA 34 2 56(58) 27(85) 4(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
MAYAGUANA 50 X 5( 5) 25(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
MAYAGUANA 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

GRAND TURK 34 42 53(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
GRAND TURK 50 1 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
GRAND TURK 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

LES CAYES 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

CAPE BEATA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

PUERTO PLATA 34 83 10(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
PUERTO PLATA 50 16 26(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
PUERTO PLATA 64 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HH out dropping dropsondes in the atmosphere northwest of Irene, on the way to check her out
Arrived home from vacation in Puerto Rico on Saturday night. Got out of there just in time.....and that's some good timing folks. Made that reservation one week out.
1823. 7544
wow cat 3 on andros island se fla better get ready imo and could see watches in the am if this new cone holds
Quoting cloudburst2011:



2 things have to happen the a/b high has to shift over the eastern gom and the high over texas pulls back nw towards the 4 corner area...then texas has irene in there back yard..


RAIN for TX folks, you've heard it hear first...

lol
Taz has learned alot on this blog, I am impressed.
Quoting kylejourdan2006:
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS.





INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS thats not good
1827. NCSaint
Quoting Grandpato4:


Yes, Wednesday is my decision day I believe.


Please just bear in mind, sir that a landfall anywhere between Charleston to Wilmington at the projected track angles is going to put the full storm surge into SouthEast facing Atlantic Beach. If any of those landfalls seems likely, you really need to not be there
LinkCaribWVLoop





Irene ~5 p.m. Monday

...A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT...
NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY ...
AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY... ---- Avila NHC

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
HH out dropping dropsondes in the atmosphere northwest of Irene, on the way to check her out


? That aircraft can not and will not be going into the storm. That one is just sampling the atmosphere ahead of Irene.
Quoting Jax82:
Visible



that cant be 290 motion??
Irene is getting close to T4.5 which is at or between 75-85 knot range on the Dvorak scale.

2011AUG22
20:15:00
T4.2
985

Dvorak analysis
===============
Final T number 4.2
Adjusted T number 4.3
Raw T number 4.3
1832. Walshy
Quoting ncstorm:


ECWMF brings it right to wilmington..


If the trend does not stop I think Irene could recurve out altogether.
1833. MIKEYZ
These models change their minds faster then my wife. Still concerned here in Wrightsville Beach NC
As expected the cone shifted eastward. I just wonder how much further east the cone can shift. Will be really interesting once all the HH data and weather balloon information is taken into account. Starting to feel safer with each shift in SE FL though. Lotta friends in Freeport though!! :-( for them!!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
HH out dropping dropsondes in the atmosphere northwest of Irene, on the way to check her out




nop thats NOAA plan the recon plan is done for now but sould be going back up soon
Quoting afwxguy86:


It won't be on the 18Z run. The 18Z run is already being completed, it will be in the 00Z run.
Most certainly was.

Weather balloons are launched ~18 UTC, take about 50 minutes to get up to 11 mb, and data is constantly received back at the ground station.

GFS runs in assimilation mode for 3 hours, so any observations that come in until 21 UTC get included.

And GFS had considerably more Fixed land station raobs than usual for 18 UTC:


(Though, I have no idea why so many on August 4...Emily?)
Wait so u mean it will get in the GOM
1839. JNCali
Anyone seen Levi yet? I know he was busy earlier today...
1840. Drakoen
Atmo, can you post the link to the 18z upper air data from the launches when they come in?
Quoting cloudburst2011:



2 things have to happen the a/b high has to shift over the eastern gom and the high over texas pulls back nw towards the 4 corner area...then texas has irene in there back yard..


Irene in Texas? Is this a joke?
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Is this what the GFDL has taken into consideration?


I don't know,ask the pro's
1844. ncstorm
We currently have a tornado warning here..
I refuse to put any trust in the NAM models as long as they're initializing the storm as a 1008 mb low.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 222051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting atmoaggie:
No, they surely are in 18 Z GFS (given it's 3 hour assimilation cycle).A better handle on mid and upper level conditions. Better tracking of the trough, etc.
Will also give better, more thorough initial condition data to the 06 Z and 18 Z GFS model. (We usually only have this data at 0 and 12 UTC.)

And, as GFDL and HWRF use GFS for synoptic initial and boundary conditions, hopefully a better handle on conditions in those, as well.


The 18Z data went into the NAM, I'm sure it will be in the GFS


22% chance of tropical storm winds for Raleigh this far out? Yikes.
I call Irene moving east of the Outer Banks and missing the East Coast.
1850. lucreto
Quoting bigwes6844:
Wait so u mean it will get in the GOM


Precisely... no of course not what a dumb question this thing will never enter the Gulf it is a fish storm.
1851. lilbitt
what ever happen to i think the name was storm something can't remember the last part of the name but he was always on here i think he worked for some weather station. miss his forecast.
1852. ncstorm
STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
How NAM foresees the 500mb heights moving in the 24 hours following 12 UTC:



(Dark to light.)

Need to remember to keep up with this after following runs.
Quoting MyrtleCanes:
have a hard believing Irene will weaken north of the bahamas over the gulf stream


I think you're misreading the forecast intensities. The only reason they forecast Irene to be weaker on the last marker is because she will have made landfall, and will be weakening due to land interaction. Based on the current forecast, she is expected to make landfall as a 115mph Category 3 storm...
1855. SeaMule
notice in the RGB loop, how much LARGER the storm in total square miles is getting. it will take longer to wind up....however, and unfortunately....it will be a larger storm

Look for another katrina or andrew...imho

and it will head into the GOM
Quoting Walshy:


If the trend does not stop I think Irene could recurve out altogether.


i agree...i see a good chance it WILL recurve especially if the models continue to trend East
# 1820 interstatelover7165 I really like the probability figures.
1859. Levi32
Good afternoon.

The new 5pm NHC track is still into South Carolina as a Cat 3, generally agreeing with the Euro from 12z, though slightly left of it. The discussion from Avila was great, highlighting that Florida still shouldn't rest easy, and that the ingredients are there for Irene to strengthen into a dangerous hurricane.

Quoting bigwes6844:
Wait so u mean it will get in the GOM
very little chance now. Florida/Carolinas still target.
The Eye is about to open as a nice EYE is building.
I have a feeling the models will shift towards the west again ,in my opinion it's going to come closer to se florida
Quoting lucreto:


Precisely... no of course not what a dumb question this thing will never enter the Gulf it is a fish storm.


Ignore this user, they are a troll. Everyone needs to report him, as I have, so we can clear his clutter out of the blog.
Quoting Jax82:
Visible



by the looks of this loop 275-280? when irene came across PR she came back over water just a bit west of san juan i believe. her current position appears froma more westerly or jusst a tad north of westerly...no?
1866. Walshy
east trends
Quoting atmoaggie:
Most certainly was.

Weather balloons are launched ~18 UTC, take about 50 minutes to get up to 11 mb, and data is constantly received back at the ground station.

GFS runs in assimilation mode for 3 hours, so any observations that come in until 21 UTC get included.

And GFS had considerably more Fixed land station raobs than usual for 18 UTC:


(Though, I have no idea why so many on August 4...Emily?)


My apologies. I stand corrected.
great news for Tampa Bay Area, not so good for the Carolinas !!!
Quoting Seflhurricane:
I have a feeling the models will shift towards the west again ,in my opinion it's going to come closer to se florida


That may be true once the 00z data gets in.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED
BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING
IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO
LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST
TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
1837. atmoaggie

Date challanged today? That was the count for yesterday's 18Z GFS.
Thanks to Taz and the others that responded to my questions. As always, I appreciate the information given on this site. Helps to understand things a little better when you ask questions. Back to reading now. Thanks...
Quoting Drakoen:
Atmo, can you post the link to the 18z upper air data from the launches when they come in?
The most info can probably be gleaned from the SPC presentation of them: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_ OBS/
Quoting MyrtleCanes:
have a hard believing Irene will weaken north of the bahamas over the gulf stream


Where does it show it weakening? Other than after projected landfall.
1875. bwat
Im working out of town, staying in sanford, nc. Just watch wral forecaster really downplay the system. Big difference from the mets around home. the wral met pretty much said yeah, its projected to come over us, but 1 out of three times the storm is outside the cone.....what kinda screwed up mets yall get in this neck of the woods?
1876. drj27
Quoting SeaMule:
notice in the RGB loop, how much LARGER the storm in total square miles is getting. it will take longer to wind up....however, and unfortunately....it will be a larger storm

Look for another katrina or andrew...imho

and it will head into the GOM
its not going into the GOM where do you see this?
Quoting lucreto:


Precisely... no of course not what a dumb question this thing will never enter the Gulf it is a fish storm.
Dumb question u trippin first of all. second of all they got people saying that the trough is lifting out and the A/B high is tryna build back thats y i asked. So before you say a dumb question get your facts straight.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1837. atmoaggie

Date challanged today? That was the count for yesterday's 18Z GFS.
*sigh*

I'm too male for multitasking, I suppose.
I see no track change with this model , se fla is in the 3 day cone and the ts wind probability is still high here in miami
Wow just noticed that they had 3 planes cheacking out what is ahead of Irene. They must be expecting somthing huge.
1882. 7544
Quoting Seflhurricane:
I have a feeling the models will shift towards the west again ,in my opinion it's going to come closer to se florida


its ok let them stay there so fla will still get some effects espeacailly if when she blows up it could be expanding enough to the west with her big size
From out to sea to TX, this blog has it all
Quoting atmoaggie:
*sigh*

I'm too male for multitasking, I suppose.


It autoupdated for you.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1837. atmoaggie

Date challanged today? That was the count for yesterday's 18Z GFS.
Wait, no it isn't.

Nice try, figured I did it again...

But, that plot says through 18 UTC, 8/22.

What date is it where you live?
Irene is gonna probably become a Cat 4 storm.....JUST SAYN
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow just noticed that they had 3 planes cheacking out what is ahead of Irene. They must be expecting somthing huge.


I forget which, but saw a model with triplets earlier? yikes...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It autoupdated for you.
Oh. ROTFLMAO.

Maybe YOU had an old one in cache! (so there)
1890. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:
The most info can probably be gleaned from the SPC presentation of them: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_ OBS/


Thanks!
if you live in North or South Carolina you need to start thinking about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routes going to be?...if you plan on riding the storm out what will you need?

1) Batteries for flashlights if power goes out

2) plenty of caned goods and non perishable foods

3) extra cash

4) and extra medications on hand

5) also know how you will evacuate your pets..

(PREPARE NOW!!)
Quoting RitaEvac:
From out to sea to TX, this blog has it all


Wasn't it just before it became a named storm that some of the models had it going into Texas...now we're talking about possible recurving!? I'd say this STORM has had it all!!

For the record, I was the first one to say that this one may hit Reykjavik. Although that was based on zero scientific knowledge and was really because it is fun to say Reykjavik. (Not as much fun to spell it).
so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean?
1895. lucreto
Quoting rchira1:

***NEWS FLASH***


Until it makes that turn to the northwest and north, This system is still coming towards South Florida.

Remember Hurricane Andrew, It was coming straight towards south florida and all of the computer models and weather people said it was going to turn northwest and north . Then the next day all of south florida woke up with less than 24 hours to prepare because the storm missed it turn to go northwest/north. Cause the ridge built in at the last minute and made andrew continue to go west. So again.


***VOICE YOUR OPINIONS WHAT U THINK***


That is actually completely incorrect Andrew was forecasted to impact South Florida several days in advance.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Irene is gonna probably become a Cat 4 storm.....JUST SAYN


I've been thinking the same thing...especially if it doesn't hit into some serious land.

At what point along its probable path will it run out of warm enough waters, or encounter enough sheer to stave off further intensification?
Quoting lucreto:


Seems a bit absurd to me, I doubt it will ever increase to anything more than it is now.



Don't bet your house on your words!!!!!
Quoting lilbitt:
what ever happen to i think the name was storm something can't remember the last part of the name but he was always on here i think he worked for some weather station. miss his forecast.


His name was "StormW" he is an amateur met just like most on this blog. Simply a hobby. He doesn't work for a weather station, but he does have a home weather station if that's what you mean. He is no longer on WU but he still posts to his on blog which he calls the "Palm Harbor Forecast Center" so I'm sure you can google that if you are interested in his forecasts.
i'm afraid irene is going to get big fast. i hope everybody is prepared.
Doesnt this forecast track by the NHC go against what the psychic twins said in "The View" lol
Quoting ncstorm:


This is starting to look so Floyd-like.
Quoting SeaMule:
notice in the RGB loop, how much LARGER the storm in total square miles is getting. it will take longer to wind up....however, and unfortunately....it will be a larger storm

Look for another katrina or andrew...imho

and it will head into the GOM


No.....It will not
Quoting rchira1:

***NEWS FLASH***


Until it makes that turn to the northwest and north, This system is still coming towards South Florida.

Remember Hurricane Andrew, It was coming straight towards south florida and all of the computer models and weather people said it was going to turn northwest and north . Then the next day all of south florida woke up with less than 24 hours to prepare because the storm missed it turn to go northwest/north. Cause the ridge built in at the last minute and made andrew continue to go west. So again.


***VOICE YOUR OPINIONS WHAT U THINK***


I think wisdom would tell you to keep an eye on it until it has passed your latitude to the North..
The news folks did not seem alarmed at all and pointed out that it is highly uncertain.
Quoting presslord:
so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean?


It means that they are trying to pin down the track ( steering flow ) and upper air dynamics that control the rate of intensification considering the forecast is calling for this to be a major cane.
NAM 84hrs.

Irene is a poppin' now...

1908. wpb
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 20:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 02

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 300mb
Coordinates: 31.0N 79.0W (View map)
Location: 131 miles (211 km) to the SE (128°) from Hilton Head Island, SC, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1012mb (29.88 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 29.6°C (85.3°F) Approximately 24°C (75°F) 250° (from the WSW) 17 knots (20 mph)
1000mb 107m (351 ft) 28.6°C (83.5°F) Approximately 24°C (75°F) 250° (from the WSW) 16 knots (18 mph)
925mb 797m (2,615 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F) 255° (from the WSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
850mb 1,532m (5,026 ft) 19.8°C (67.6°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 290° (from the WNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
700mb 3,176m (10,420 ft) 9.4°C (48.9°F) Approximately -4°C (25°F) 320° (from the NW) 17 knots (20 mph)
500mb 5,880m (19,291 ft) -5.1°C (22.8°F) Approximately -38°C (-36°F) 305° (from the NW) 17 knots (20 mph)
400mb 7,600m (24,934 ft) -16.9°C (1.6°F) Approximately -33°C (-27°F) 325° (from the NW) 21 knots (24 mph)
300mb 9,690m (31,791 ft) -32.9°C (-27.2°F) -32.9°C (-27.2°F) 260° (from the W) 17 knots (20 mph)

The outliers take it to the Outer Banks and north at this point.

1910. rv1pop
Grandpaof4 from a grandpa of 12 ;;; Board up and have someone watch your place. Head out of the path and find a place to rent a Motor Home. Almost anyone can drive a 24 foot one. Go for a vacation until this is over. The MH rental will be less than a hotel room, you can go where you want and leave if you need to, and you carry your own food so can fix what you want when you want. --- We have even taken the MH to the grocery store and did not come back home for a week. --- But, we are full timers, so live in the MH even when we are on the property. A decent newer used MH can cost less than a second car (and makes a good one when traveling with the grand kids.) BTW - the MH is our emergency preparation! Our storm kit!
Quoting presslord:
so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean?
HEADS UP!
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think some of the FEMA reaction to NOLA was because there had been some governmental decisions that helped to create the disaster. Where other locations in other storms may have suffered just because of geography, there were, from my understanding of what I read prior to Katrina, some political "stuff" that should have been dealt with but wasn't. Your relatives and other hurricane victims in other parts of the GoM also became lower priority in part because Katrina was a horror situation that nobody expected to deal with and everybody wanted cleared away as quickly as possible. And even the "priority" cases from Katrina had difficulty with housing after 2005

Oh, please! I don't want to give the impression I was talking about relatives or family in any way. I wasn't. The "we" was a collective one. I meant all of us in Escambia County and, most importantly, the least fortunate among us, who were victimized twice ~ once by circumstances beyond their control and then by the government in its rush to address the Katrina human disaster.



Remember how many on here was making fun of the GFS Model and how intense it took IRENE.......LOL....guess its about to throw some crow in many peoples face.
1915. ncstorm
Quoting flasooner:


This is starting to look so Floyd-like.


floyd was almost a Cat 5 until it went to a category 2..looks like the same thing again according to the latest NHC map
Quoting weatherlover94:
if you live in North or South Carolina you need to start thinking about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routes going to be?...if you plan on riding the storm out what will you need?

1) Batteries for flashlights if power goes out

2) plenty of caned goods and non perishable foods

3) extra cash

4) and extra medications on hand

5) also know how you will evacuate your pets..

(PREPARE NOW!!)


6) Water in old nasty milk jugs.

7) Crow bar.

8) Large caliber semi automatic pistol.
1917. yoboi
what is a plane doing in the GOM?????
Quoting presslord:
so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean?


More real data for the models to use... better forecast. Without this data, the models must "guess" about what the conditions actually are, then they "guess" where the storm is going/how strong it will be (so you have a guess based off of a guess).
1919. hahaguy
Is it just me or on 2pm thursday is the track a little closer to FL or am I seeing things?
Quoting Grandpato4:
The news folks did not seem alarmed at all and pointed out that it is highly uncertain.
And they are correct.
Painful as it is for me to say (I am not a TV-met-fan), that is a perfect outlook for news outlets in NC to have, at the moment.
10-feet of water in NYC would cause a multitude of rats to die.
1922. rchira1
Some at the national hurricane center thinks that the high might build back in and that is why they are sending up the balloons and extra aircraft to get a better knowledge if this can happen.
Quoting atmoaggie:
HEADS UP!


OK...I deeply appreciate you understanding the necessity of a simplistic approach with me...but I can handle a little more detail than this...
NEW BLOG POST
I personally like Skip Waters (WCTI- New Bern).  David Sawyer (WNCT- Greenville) has returned recently, but he is pretty sharp too.   Can't speak for WRAL as I don't get their channel here.
Quoting bwat:
Im working out of town, staying in sanford, nc. Just watch wral forecaster really downplay the system. Big difference from the mets around home. the wral met pretty much said yeah, its projected to come over us, but 1 out of three times the storm is outside the cone.....what kinda screwed up mets yall get in this neck of the woods?

NEW BLOG
Quoting DookiePBC:
As expected the cone shifted eastward. I just wonder how much further east the cone can shift. Will be really interesting once all the HH data and weather balloon information is taken into account. Starting to feel safer with each shift in SE FL though. Lotta friends in Freeport though!! :-( for them!!


The cone shifted east above the closest approach to SEFL. Still splitting Grand Bahama, same as 11am. 56 miles from West Palm to west end, looks to be about 80 miles at the closest approach on the current track.
Quoting bwat:
Im working out of town, staying in sanford, nc. Just watch wral forecaster really downplay the system. Big difference from the mets around home. the wral met pretty much said yeah, its projected to come over us, but 1 out of three times the storm is outside the cone.....what kinda screwed up mets yall get in this neck of the woods?


They're right. If the center tracks east of Raleigh, the effects will be minimal in the Triangle area.
Quoting rv1pop:
Grandpaof4 from a grandpa of 12 ;;; Board up and have someone watch your place. Head out of the path and find a place to rent a Motor Home. Almost anyone can drive a 24 foot one. Go for a vacation until this is over. The MH rental will be less than a hotel room, you can go where you want and leave if you need to, and you carry your own food so can fix what you want when you want. --- We have even taken the MH to the grocery store and did not come back home for a week. --- But, we are full timers, so live in the MH even when we are on the property. A decent newer used MH can cost less than a second car (and makes a good one when traveling with the grand kids.) BTW - the MH is our emergency preparation! Our storm kit!


This is supposed to be my vacation home. I winter in Florida. I will head to my daughter's house in Raleigh. She has a big house and no trees. She also has my grandkids so it will be nice to see them all on their own turf.
Quoting presslord:
so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean?


Mardi Gras?
1931. 900MB
Expect recon to find low 980's pressure and 90mph winds in time for the 8pm advisory.
Quoting kmanislander:


It means that they are trying to pin down the track ( steering flow ) and upper air dynamics that control the rate of intensification considering the forecast is calling for this to be a major cane.


They have a strong feeling that she will become a very strong and DANGEROUS Hurricane. They are just trying to get it correct to get warnings out as early as possible if that would be the case.
Nice consensus here.


Quoting PrivateIdaho:


6) Water in old nasty milk jugs.

7) Crow bar.

8) Large caliber semi automatic pistol.


12 guage Browning automatic shotgun...and about 1000 shells....I may not take 'em out...but I'll damned sho' slow 'em down...
1935. rv1pop
Quoting weatherlover94:
if you live in North or South Carolina you need to start thinking about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routes going to be?...if you plan on riding the storm out what will you need?

1) Batteries for flashlights if power goes out

2) plenty of caned goods and non perishable foods

3) extra cash

4) and extra medications on hand

5) also know how you will evacuate your pets..

(PREPARE NOW!!)
Load it all in your RV and drive! Leave early so you can find a good place to park. (WalMart)
In case there is anyone who THINKS south Florida is out of the woods, think again. Last time I checked, the NHC said "lessens the threat for south Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas." It did not say that this will not impact south Florida, and it did not say it was definitely coming to the Carolinas. Also there is still a high likelihood of TS force winds in South Florida, ~50-60% chances. No one is in the clear just yet... except for TX, LA, MS, AL and the FL panhandle, IMO.
Quoting hahaguy:
Is it just me or on 2pm thursday is the track a little closer to FL or am I seeing things?


You. Use the NHC Google Earth that shows cone and track. You can zoom into an area and then change advisory # at the top to see the difference.
1938. wpb
the model will have a ton of extra data

gulfstream jet
af 307 dropsones off the carolinas
extra ballon data at selected stations
2 noaa 2 p3 orion flights tuesday
plus the af c 130

wow
1939. RickWPB
The 'cone of error' along the east coast of FL is about the same as it was at 11AM, but shows Irene obtaining the 'M' label (cat 3) sooner. The center of the cone is now between SC and NC border... or a little to the right of the 11AM track. Sure would like to see the cone shift more right so ALL of CONUS is safe.

For history of track prediction click link below:
Link
1940. usa777
It figures...I get chased out of Miss. by Katrina..Now I have a potential monster heading up into the mid-atlantic area. I know it won't be anything like Katrina when it gets into Maryland but I don't want any bad memories coming back. lol Anytime I get bad winds, it freaks me out.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


6) Water in old nasty milk jugs.

7) Crow bar.

8) Large caliber semi automatic pistol.
You wouldn't need a gun if you're in Japan post-disaster. There were hardly any (or none) lootings after the earthquake a couple months back.
1942. 996tt
Quoting drj27:
its not going into the GOM where do you see this?


Haha, say this tomorrow at same time. The last several strong hurricanes to hit CONUS all had east coast tracks at this juncture and all moved west day by day. Bermuda high, system not entirely organized with poor Southern outflow will keep drifting more WNW. Models are using steering for strong cat 2, cat 3 which be Northernly. If she hits strong cat 2 within say 24 hours, Carolinas. If she lumbers around as cat 1 with poor outflow on one or more sides, keys and up west coast of Florida penisula.
1943. hahaguy
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You. Use the NHC Google Earth that shows cone and track. You can zoom into an area and then change advisory # at the top to see the difference.

I did just come inside form the extreme heat so my brains a little fried lol
1944. Levi32
Visible imagery indicates that Irene is trying to reorganize and generate a deeper CDO, but dry air has been an issue for the past couple of days, evidenced by outflow boundaries racing off to the west of the storm into the Bahamas. Irene will likely struggle to intensify significantly until she is well clear of Hispaniola.
12,480m (40,945 ft) -51.5°C (-60.7°F) Approximately -66°C (-87°F)

Just Amazing. Everybody watch out for Irene!
1946. bwat
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


They're right. If the center tracks east of Raleigh, the effects will be minimal in the Triangle area.
True, but he said that emergency managment offcials had to make plans now, but that was all for the time due to the uncertainty. Seemed like bad advice to me, but thats just IMO. I've always heard to make plans whenever you are in the cone. Saturdays a long way out I suppose, I guess kudos for them not creating a panic just yet.
Quoting Chicklit:
The outliers take it to the Outer Banks and north at this point.



We should be ok, eh?
NEW BLOG!
Quoting WaterWitch11:
i'm afraid irene is going to get big fast. i hope everybody is prepared.


i dont think so she hasnt eaten that many fish yet...i think irene is just a little depressed now...waiting for jose to come join her...
1950. rv1pop
Quoting Grandpato4:


This is supposed to be my vacation home. I winter in Florida. I will head to my daughter's house in Raleigh. She has a big house and no trees. She also has my grandkids so it will be nice to see them all on their own turf.
I almost got property in Port Arthur TX, to have for a parking spot / Vacation site, but taxes were way too high - WalMart in CC allow RV parking, with security and a shuttle to shopping! Four grandkids just 7 blocks away.
Should I evacuate in Wilmington? I'm about 6 miles inland of the coast and about 30 feet above sea level. I just don't see the need unless it was a category 4+.


Intensifying storm no doubt. Convective burst over the center.
Thanks... what a great resource :) 
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You. Use the NHC Google Earth that shows cone and track. You can zoom into an area and then change advisory # at the top to see the difference.

Just saying this thing is about Due south of the eastern tip of Cape Cod, i think this may be an Outer Banks/ New England Storm, sort of like Bob in 1992, Maybe like 20 miles west of Bobs landfall.
1956. 996tt
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
In case there is anyone who THINKS south Florida is out of the woods, think again. Last time I checked, the NHC said "lessens the threat for south Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas." It did not say that this will not impact south Florida, and it did not say it was definitely coming to the Carolinas. Also there is still a high likelihood of TS force winds in South Florida, ~50-60% chances. No one is in the clear just yet... except for TX, LA, MS, AL and the FL panhandle, IMO.


Haha, Gustav was a Carolina storm also at same location as Irene is at now and models shifted daily as turn never came with the same exact map set up. Panhandle is kind of in play. Depends entirely on storms strength at this point. 40 % GOM and 60 % chance of Keys to Ft. Lauderdale hit based on what I am seeing. If goes to cat 2 really quickly, especially strong cat 2, then Carolinas are in play.
1957. Levi32
Quoting CothranRoss:
Should I evacuate in Wilmington? I'm about 6 miles inland of the coast and about 30 feet above sea level. I just don't see the need unless it was a category 4 .


It will depend entirely on whether Irene directly impacts NC and what intensity she is. Local officials will also tell you if an evacuation is seriously needed.
Anybody know when Irene will be in range of Guantanamo Bay's radar?
Quoting presslord:
so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean?
It means we like to polute...
STOP POSTING HERE, THERE'S A NEW BLOG.
Quoting Chicklit:
LinkWVLoop

Another interesting evening ahead for Irene-watchers.
Quoting Dem86Mets:
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154
KT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT
SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT
120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE
WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. [b]THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130
HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF
FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.


thats why they dropping dropsondes all over the place nw of irene
levi, could the track shift west again toward the Fla. area or is the track pretty much in good agreement now?
1963. RickWPB
Quoting Grandpato4:


This is supposed to be my vacation home. I winter in Florida. I will head to my daughter's house in Raleigh. She has a big house and no trees. She also has my grandkids so it will be nice to see them all on their own turf.

Interesting. I'm a retired GP too. I live in West Palm B. FL. Would like to move to Raleigh, NC area as both my sons and 7 grandkids are there. Just waiting for real-estate to recover, ha – yeah right!

But... Raleigh area can feel some serious storm effects too, but nothing like near the coastline. "Hide from the wind, Run from the water".

Good luck to you and your wife. A move inland should be a good thing for sure.
The 5pm update was the absolute worst track forecast for me. oh well, time to batten the hatches.
1965. 996tt
Quoting Levi32:
Visible imagery indicates that Irene is trying to reorganize and generate a deeper CDO, but dry air has been an issue for the past couple of days, evidenced by outflow boundaries racing off to the west of the storm into the Bahamas. Irene will likely struggle to intensify significantly until she is well clear of Hispaniola.


Yep, and this could help her stay South and East or current models.
Click to enlarge.

Quoting DookiePBC:
As expected the cone shifted eastward. I just wonder how much further east the cone can shift. Will be really interesting once all the HH data and weather balloon information is taken into account. Starting to feel safer with each shift in SE FL though. Lotta friends in Freeport though!! :-( for them!!
Yah, Freeport doesn't need another bad blow. Every hurricane since 2002, except Ike, hit Grand Bahama hard.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The lower moving image in post 1720 , posted at 4:21 by P451

shows the "outflow boundary" which crossed Providenciales
as a squall line giving me a 55 mph recorded wind gust


Are there any local radars or weather stations that we can follow?
1969. Patrap
oops
Quoting ncstorm:
STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
Hm....

From 6 to 12 feet of storm tide is possible in the worst case scenario for a Cat 3 along much of the largely residential south coast of New Providence.

As evidenced by Hurricane Andrew, North Eleuthera can see as much as 18 feet of surge, while Exuma can have as much as 20 feet. Some parts of Long Island could be completely overrun by surge.

Sure hope this isn't going to be one of these scenarios...

If you haven't done so as yet, check out the storm surge database the doc has linked in his blog entry.
Did ya'll realize there's a new blog???
18z GFS shows Irene just slightly westward....

Quoting TomTaylor:
Latest Dropsonde from Gonzo (23N 73W) shows dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere




This is inline with the water vapor image (water vapor imagery depicts the upper third of the atmosphere) which is showing dry air aloft. Dropsonde location is circled in green.






As already mentioned, this is all a result of the trough over the east coast pushing winds toward Irene on the west side. This produces convergence aloft. When the air converges aloft, it sinks (subsides). As it sinks, it warms by compression and dries out the air level in the process.

Other than this, the rest of the upper level and oceanic environment are favorable for continued intensification. The only other issue is the organization and continued land interaction from Hispaniola (although the effects of this will not be nearly as significant as expected a few days ago). None of these are huge issues, however. So...Bahamas, SE US, mid Atlantic states, and NE states, start prepping now...


Now we need to figure the starting longtitude for the turn north of Irene. At what longtitude does Irene need to start making up some latitude to avoid a brush/hitting of Florida east coast?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


6) Water in old nasty milk jugs.

7) Crow bar.

8) Large caliber semi automatic pistol.


Just wondering, who still uses milk jugs in 2011? Most of the milk/water I get are in gallon-sized bottles.
Quoting air360:
HA he just tweeted that he had no idea where his assignment would be and I tweeted back saying most likely Morehead/Atlantic Beach. Seems I'm not the only one who notices that they send him here often for NC storms.
Isn't Cantore the KINGof TWC? thought him ans stef go where they please. God,he sure been there a while. Iremember him having hair when I was in Naples Florida for 6 years 86-92.....lolololol
1977. jonelu
Quoting Patrap:
Looks to be staying off shore for sure so far.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).
Quoting atmoaggie:
Weather balloons launched from these locations at 18 Z:


(This is unusual and was specifically requested by NHC).


NHC is taking this very serious,they don't wanna be wrong on a possible Cat4 landfall. Are all these dropsondes and ballons normal for a storm,or are they reserved for strong storms,or they arent able from the models to feel comfortable enough to call it?
Quoting washingaway:
78hrs.



why do the models expect the 2nd trof/shortwave to do anything to Irene,as it now looks like the strong 1st one hasnt done a thing and with models saying the bermuda high will build west..........????????????
Quoting bwat:
Is it at all possible she is slowing down because she is feeling the influence of the weakness and is preparing to make a turn? Honest question, I'm still learning.
I mean 3 days ago the models were saying the trof was gonna lift her north to florida. now the trof is gonna lift her north to sc/sc... it looks like this trof has missed Irene and the bermuda high is building back west,and now the models say a 2nd shortwave/trof will lift Irene north??? IT SEEMS TO ME THEY BEEN WRONG WRONG WRONG! the only reason the models have shifted right(East) is that the models screwd up at the beginning by organizing Irene at about 4 degrees latitude further south then where she actually formed?????????? no?????????? please explain
Quoting Chicklit:
The outliers take it to the Outer Banks and north at this point.



whys is the UKMET way over in the GOM?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hm....

From 6 to 12 feet of storm tide is possible in the worst case scenario for a Cat 3 along much of the largely residential south coast of New Providence.

As evidenced by Hurricane Andrew, North Eleuthera can see as much as 18 feet of surge, while Exuma can have as much as 20 feet. Some parts of Long Island could be completely overrun by surge.

Sure hope this isn't going to be one of these scenarios...

If you haven't done so as yet, check out the storm surge database the doc has linked in his blog entry.
r u in the bahamas baha?
Quoting Grandpato4:


My daughter is in North Raleigh out towards Wake Forest. I think we would be fine there. No large trees and she has a large brick home.

Why don't you just have her come out and get you so you won't have to worry about last minute stuff?
Honest question: Why does rapid intensification indicate a quicker turn to North?
Where did everybody go? Nothing on boards for 15 min? At least not on my computer...

I live on the South shore of Long Island, New York on the western half of Nassau County. We had no tropical storm except since Gloria 1985....26 years ago. Do we need to prepare for another Hurricane? Thanks....

Mark Surval
marktheteacher@yahoo.com
Today's TRMM pass.