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Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:14 PM GMT on November 30, 2011

On August 24, 2011, I had good reason to fear New York City's worst-case storm surge disaster might be named Irene. As Category 3 Hurricane Irene ripped through the Bahamas on its way to North Carolina and New England, our most reliable hurricane forecasting model--the European (ECMWF) model--predicted that Irene would intensify to Category 4 strength with a 912 mb central pressure as it grazed the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then slowly weaken to a Category 3 hurricane before hitting southern New Jersey. Just a small perturbation from this scenario would bring Irene over New York City as a Category 2 hurricane. Since Irene was an exceptionally large storm with winds that covered a huge stretch of ocean, the storm had a much larger storm surge than it peak winds would suggest, and could have easily brought a storm surge of 15 - 20 feet to New York City. The storm would arrive during the new moon, when tides were at their highest levels of the month, compounding the storm surge risk.

Thankfully, the ECMWF model was wrong, and Irene's eyewall collapsed before the hurricane reached North Carolina. Irene made a direct hit on New York City as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Irene's storm surge reached 4.3 feet at the Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, which was high enough to top the city's seawall and flood low-lying park lands and roads near the shore. Fortunately, the water was not high enough to flood New York City's subway system, which could have easily occurred had Irene's winds been just 5 - 10 mph stronger.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for August 28, 2011 made on August 24, 2011 by the ECMWF model for Hurricane Irene. The model predicted that Irene would be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with a 936 mb central pressure four days later, just south of New Jersey.

New York City: my number one storm surge disaster concern
I met last year with the head of the National hurricane Center's storm surge unit, Jaime Rhome, and asked him what his number one concern was for a future storm surge disaster. Without hesitation, he replied, "New York City." I agreed with him. Strong hurricanes don't make it to New York City very often, since storms must hit the city from the south or southeast in order to stay over water, and most hurricanes are moving northeast or north-northeast when they strike New England. New York also lies far to the north, where cold water and wind shear can tear up any hurricane that might approach. But if you throw the weather dice enough times, your number will eventually come up. New York City's number came up on September 3, 1821, when what was probably a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds struck the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street--an area that now houses the nation's financial center. The maximum storm surge from this greatest New York City hurricane is unknown, but could have been 15 - 20 feet, which is what NOAA's SLOSH model predicts could occur for a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds.


Figure 2. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would would create in New York City in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps for the U.S. coast for more imagery.

New York City's storm surge history
During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8.5-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway, knocking out power to the entire system. One train had to be backed out of a tunnel that was filling with water, and hundreds of passengers were rescued from stranded trains. Portions of the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in New Jersey were shut down for ten days, after low points in the rail tunnels flooded and major damage occurred to the control signals. Passengers had to be rescued from a train stalled in the PATH tunnel. Surges only one to two feet higher may have caused massive flooding of the PATH train tunnels. La Guardia Airport was closed due to flooded runways. Roadway flooding was also widespread—FDR Drive in lower Manhattan flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Battery Park Tunnel held six feet of water. Major parkways were flooded in Nassau County, Westchester County, and New Jersey. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The situation was similar in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. The November 25, 1950 Nor'easter brought sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph to LaGuardia Airport, and pushed a large storm surge up Long Island Sound that breached the dikes guarding the airport, flooding the runways.


Figure 3. Water pours into the Hoboken, New Jersey underground PATH mass transit station during the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter. Image credit: Metro New York Hurricane Transport Study, 1995.


Figure 4. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

Sea level rise and New York City
According to tide gauge data, sea level at the Battery at the south end of Manhattan has risen about 1 foot since 1900. This is higher than the mean global sea level rise of 7 inches (18 cm) that occurred in the 20th century. Global sea level rise occurs because the oceans are expanding as they heat up, and due to melt water from glaciers. The higher sea level rise in New York is due to the fact the land is sinking along the coast. These processes will continue during the coming century.

The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predicted in 2007 a 0.6 - 1.9 foot global average sea level rise by 2100. However, they did not include melting from Greenland and Antarctica in this estimate, due to the large uncertainties involved. A paper published by Pfeffer et al. (2008) in Science concluded that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet. Three major sea level papers published since the IPCC report was issued in 2007 all agree that the IPCC significantly underestimated the potential sea level rise by 2100. In a 2009 interview with New Scientist magazine, sea level expert/ glaciologist Robert Bindschadler of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, commented, "most of my community is comfortable expecting at least a meter (3.28') by the end of this century." Sea level expert Stephan Rahmstorf added, "I sense that now a majority of sea level experts would agree with me that the IPCC projections are much too low." However, he cautioned that the popular media tend to focus on the upper limits of these newer projections (1. 5 - 2.0 meters), and "reaching the upper limits is, by definition, extremely unlikely.""

The sea level rise situation will be worse in areas where ocean currents have a large impact on the local sea level. This is the case along the Northeast U.S. coast, where the balance of forces required to maintain the very strong and narrow Gulf Stream Current means that sea water is sucked away from the coast, lowering the relative sea level from North Carolina northwards. During the coming century, the addition of large amounts of heat and fresh water into the North Atlantic due to higher precipitation, river runoff, and increased melting of glaciers is expected to weaken the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) (also referred to as the thermohaline circulation), a global network of density-driven ocean currents. Weakening the thermohaline circulation will allow the Gulf Stream to spread out, resulting in sea level rise along the Northeast U.S. coast. Hu et al. (2009) found that a slow-down of the Meridional Overturning Circulation by 48% may occur by 2100, resulting in a 0.1 - 0.3 meter (0.25 - 1.0 ft) rise in sea level along the U.S. Northeast coast and Canadian Atlantic coast. This rise would be in addition to global sea level rise from melting glaciers and thermal expansion of the waters. A similar study by Yin et al. (2009) found a slow-down of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of 41% by 2100. New York City was in the region with the highest expected sea level rise from this ocean current effect--a rise of about 0.2 meters (0.75 feet) by the year 2100. If the Atlantic thermohaline circulation were to totally collapse, the authors predict a 4 ft (1.2 meter) rise in sea level along the U.S. Northeast coast solely due to the change in ocean currents. The IPCC predicts that such an abrupt climate change event (rather ridiculously depicted in the movie The Day After Tomorrow) will not occur in the coming century, though.

The future: Stronger hurricanes for New York City?
According to a summary statement endorsed by 125 of the world's top hurricane scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, in San Jose Costa Rica, in November 2006. "it is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone intensity will occur if the climate continues to warm." This makes intuitive sense, since hurricanes are heat engines that convert the heat of the ocean waters into the mechanical energy of wind. Turn up the thermostat, and you increase the energy available to make the strongest storms stronger. One major reason hurricanes weaken quickly when they approach New England is that the coastal waters cool dramatically north of North Carolina. As ocean waters warm during the coming century, hurricanes will be more able to maintain their strength farther to the north. One of the reasons the ECMWF model was simulating a 936 mb Hurricane Irene hitting New Jersey was because ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast were 1°C (1.8°F) above average during August 2011--the 7th warmest in recorded history. These high ocean temperature were due to the exceptional heat wave that gripped much of the mid-Atlantic during the summer of 2011--every state along the coast from Florida to New Jersey had a summer that ranked in the top four warmest summers since 1895. Such heat waves and warm ocean temperature are expected to become the new normal by mid-century, resulting in increased chances for strong hurricanes to make it to New England.


Figure 5. Summer temperatures along the U.S. Atlantic coast during 2011 ranked as 2nd - 4th warmest on record from Florida to New Jersey, resulting in exceptionally warm waters along the coast for Hurricane Irene to feed off of in late August. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The other major reason that strong hurricanes have trouble making it to New England is that wind shear generally increases as one gets closer to the pole, due to the presence of the powerful winds of the polar jet stream. However, climate change theory predicts that the jet stream should migrate poleward during the coming decades, potentially reducing the amount of wind shear hurricanes arriving in New England will experience. A 2008 study by Archer and Caldeira found that the jet stream moved northwards 125 miles per decade during the 22-year period 1979 - 2001, in agreement with climate change theory. However, the migration of the jet stream northwards may also mean that hurricanes will be less likely to be caught up in a trough of low pressure embedded in the jet stream, resulting in fewer hurricanes swinging northwards to impact New England. At this point, it is hard to say whether or not changes to the jet stream due to climate change will alter the frequency of strong hurricanes reaching New England.

New York City's inadequate sea wall
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. At high tide, the water is only 3.5 feet below the top of the seawall, so clearly Manhattan is going to have a serious storm surge problem by the end of the century if sea level rise reaches the 3-foot plus figure many sea level rise scientists are predicting. As Ben Straus of Climate Central pointed out in a blog post on Irene, "sea level rise will amplify the impact of future hurricanes and Nor'easters. If we replay the 20th century but add an extra foot of sea level at the start (the extra foot we indeed started with in 2000, compared to 1900), about six events would produce higher water levels than the Nor'easter of 1992." Remember, the 1992 Nor'easter crippled the city's transportation system for ten days and caused hundreds of millions in damage. A Category 2 hurricane like the 1821 hurricane would be far worse, and could result in severe global economic consequences. A 15-foot storm surge from such a hurricane would swamp JFK and La Guardia airports. Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, shutting down Wall Street and New York City's Financial District. The Holland Tunnel, much of the NYC subway system, and the New Jersey PATH mass transit systems would all flood. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel could be destroyed. Nearly half a million people and almost 300,000 jobs lie within the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 0.2-percent-annual-chance flood zones that would be inundated. As New York Times columnist Nate Silver wrote, such a disaster would likely cost near $100 billion. Furthermore, he makes the point, "Keep in mind that New York City's annual gross domestic product is about $1.4 trillion, one-tenth of the nation's gross domestic product, so if much of the city were to become dysfunctional for months or more, the damage to the global and domestic economies would be almost incalculable."


Figure 6. The seawall protecting Manhattan at Battery Park is only 5 feet above mean sea level. Tidal range at the Battery is plus or minus 1.5 feet, so at high tide a storm surge of just 3.5 feet is needed to send water over the seawall and into Manhattan.

Flooding of the NYC subway system
The U.S. Federal Transit Administration released a report in October 2011 called, "Flooded Bus Barns and Buckled Rails: Public Transportation and Climate Change Adaptation". The report says that with three feet of sea-level rise, the flooding produced by a 100-year storm at current sea levels will require only a 10-year storm, in other words, a tenfold increase in the frequency of flooding. Even without sea-level rise, a 100-year flood (an 8-foot storm surge) would inundate substantial portions of the subway system, whose tunnels generally lie twenty feet below street level. With sea-level rise though, the flooding occurs more rapidly and is more severe. A 100-year flood with a four foot rise in sea level would flood a large fraction of Manhattan subways, including virtually all of the tunnels crossing into the Bronx beneath the Harlem River and the tunnels under the East River. Flood waters enter the subway tunnels mostly vertically via ventila­tion grates and entrances as the streets flood, but also via inclined rail and road tunnels. Hydraulic computations show complete flooding takes only 40 minutes. Recovery would require obtaining huge quantities of pumps and hoses, awaiting restoration of power to the electrical grid, pumping out the flood waters, cleaning out miles of muddy and debris-filled platforms, stairs, tunnels and trackway, assessing the damage, and repairing problems. Much of the signal equipment and controls in the tunnels would be damged by salt or brackish water and would need to be disassembled, cleaned, and repaired or replaced to avoid corrosion and irreparable long-term damage. This specialized equipment, some of it 100 years old, is difficult to obtain and in many cases no longer manufactured. Researchers estimate a minimum recovery time of three to four weeks to reach 90 percent capacity, although when engineers were presented with the question, they believed that it could take one to two years to recover fully. This also assumes trains were moved to portions of the system with elevations above flood levels, in anticipation of the storm and were thus not damaged. Additional problems could result if the flood waters were contami­nated with toxins. Combined economic and physical damage losses from subway tunnel flooding under a 100-year storm surge were estimated at $58 billion at current sea levels and $84 billion with four feet of sea-level rise, assuming a linear recovery and an estimated subway outage time of three to four weeks.


Figure 7. New York City Subway vulnerability to a 100-year flood of 8 feet, with a 4-foot sea level rise. Blue lines are flooded subway tunnels. Orange areas have elevation less than 30 feet at present. Subway tracks are typically 20 feet below street level. Image credit: New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), ClimAID: Responding to Climate Change in New York State, Draft Version, 2010.

What to do? Build a storm surge barrier
As I discussed in Part One of this series on U.S. storm surge risk, three cities in New England--Stamford, Providence, and New Bedford--have already built hurricane storm surge barriers that have more than paid for the cost of their construction in damages saved. Many coastal cities will need to substantially improve their flood defenses in coming decades due to rising sea levels. For New York, the best solution is to place three barriers at strategic "choke points"—the Verrazano Narrows, Throgs Neck, and the Arthur Kill, argues Douglas Hill of Stony Brook University's Storm Surge Research Group. I'll present his arguments in a guest post in Part Three of this series on storm surge risk in the U.S., coming up sometime in the next week.

Resources and references
Storm surge barriers: the New England experience: Part One of this series on U.S. storm surge risk.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go.

Wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps for the U.S. coast.

Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2010 Report

Climate change information resources for NYC from Columbia University.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Colle, B.A., et al., 2008, New York City's vulnerability to coastal flooding: storm surge modeling of past cyclones, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 89, 829–841 (2008).

Hu, A., G. A. Meehl, W. Han, and J. Yin (2009), "Transient response of the MOC and climate to potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century", Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10707, doi:10.1029/2009GL037998 29 May 2009

Rignot, E., and P. Kanagaratnam (2006), Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Science, 311, 986. 990.

Yin, J., M.E. Schlesinger, and R.J. Stouffer, 2009, "Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States", Nature Geoscience 2, 262 - 266 (2009).

Lady Liberty not at risk from a storm surge
As a side note, the Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal. However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sea level rise Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you, Dr. Masters.
Good discussion... Looks like we'll need a new citizen corps for all the labor on the sea walls or we may just have a new 'Big Dig' on our hands. If the economy continues its collapse we may have no need to protect NY City, everyone will have to move inland so they can grow their own food?!
NOLA has Levee's and Phat Tuesday.

Phew...


Take dat NYC.
Thank you for the new entry Dr. M!
Jeez New York is not tropical cyclone friendly.

Also, hey everyone, been gone for awhile and I'm currently buried under a pile of university projects. Sigh...

But check it out, our 20% circle looks interestingly interesting. ha!

Very nice way to say goodbye to the 2011 hurricane season with a subtropical storm in the making(Ivest 90L)
nobody wants Lady liberty to fall :D
Quoting Patrap:
NOLA has Levee's and Phat Tuesday.

Phew...


Take dat NYC.
Patrap, Phat Tuesday, yes, but levee's, well......., thats another story. Katrina proved, unfortunately, that even levees can be overtopped and knocked down. Me thinks NOLA is living on borrowed time. A direct hit on NOLA by a cat 2 or bigger would be...shall we say...horrible. Same for NYC. It's just a matter of "when", not "if". The same for us here in good ole Houston/Galv. I shudder at the thought of a Cat 2 or more coming in at the west end of Galveston and crawling up the west side of Houston.
Several things immediately stand out:

"Three major sea level papers published since the IPCC report was issued in 2007 all agree that the IPCC significantly underestimated the potential sea level rise by 2100. In a 2009 interview with New Scientist magazine, sea level expert Stephan Rahmstorf said, "I sense that now a majority of sea level experts would agree with me that the IPCC projections are much too low.""

The other major reason that strong hurricanes have trouble making it to New England is that wind shear generally increases as one gets closer to the pole, due to the presence of the powerful winds of the polar jet stream. However, climate change theory predicts that the jet stream should migrate poleward during the coming decades, potentially reducing the amount of wind shear hurricanes arriving in New England will experience

"...sea level rise will amplify the impact of future hurricanes and Nor'easters. If we replay the 20th century but add an extra foot of sea level at the start (the extra foot we indeed started with in 2000, compared to 1900), about six events would produce higher water levels than the Nor'easter of 1992.

Any one of those is cause, I think, for alarm. But all three? Yikes.

The hits just keep on coming...


Uploaded by moviemagg on Aug 1, 2009

This is actual film footage taken in Islamorada in the Florida Keys of some of the damage caused by the most intense Hurricane to ever hit any part of the United States mainland in recorded history.

This Hurricane struck on Labor Day September 2, 1935 with little advance warning as the National Weather Service office in Jacksonville predicted this storm to move west through the Florida straits between Havana and Key West.
However the storm moved on a Northwest course and tore into the middle Florida Keys during the late afternoon and early evening of Monday September 2nd 1935 with sustained winds of 200-MPH and gusts as high as 250-MPH. An incredibale storm surge of 15 to 25 feet completely covered the middle Keys. A relief train sent down from Miami to evacuate several hundred WWI veterans, was knocked off it's tracks.
The offical death toll stands at 408-people, however hundreds more were reported missing and most of those were never found.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Several things immediately stand out:

"Three major sea level papers published since the IPCC report was issued in 2007 all agree that the IPCC significantly underestimated the potential sea level rise by 2100. In a 2009 interview with New Scientist magazine, sea level expert Stephan Rahmstorf said, "I sense that now a majority of sea level experts would agree with me that the IPCC projections are much too low.""

The other major reason that strong hurricanes have trouble making it to New England is that wind shear generally increases as one gets closer to the pole, due to the presence of the powerful winds of the polar jet stream. However, climate change theory predicts that the jet stream should migrate poleward during the coming decades, potentially reducing the amount of wind shear hurricanes arriving in New England will experience

"...sea level rise will amplify the impact of future hurricanes and Nor'easters. If we replay the 20th century but add an extra foot of sea level at the start (the extra foot we indeed started with in 2000, compared to 1900), about six events would produce higher water levels than the Nor'easter of 1992.

Any one of those is cause, I think, for alarm. But all three? Yikes.

The hits just keep on coming...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Several things immediately stand out:

"Three major sea level papers published since the IPCC report was issued in 2007 all agree that the IPCC significantly underestimated the potential sea level rise by 2100. In a 2009 interview with New Scientist magazine, sea level expert Stephan Rahmstorf said, "I sense that now a majority of sea level experts would agree with me that the IPCC projections are much too low.""

The other major reason that strong hurricanes have trouble making it to New England is that wind shear generally increases as one gets closer to the pole, due to the presence of the powerful winds of the polar jet stream. However, climate change theory predicts that the jet stream should migrate poleward during the coming decades, potentially reducing the amount of wind shear hurricanes arriving in New England will experience

"...sea level rise will amplify the impact of future hurricanes and Nor'easters. If we replay the 20th century but add an extra foot of sea level at the start (the extra foot we indeed started with in 2000, compared to 1900), about six events would produce higher water levels than the Nor'easter of 1992.

Any one of those is cause, I think, for alarm. But all three? Yikes.

The hits just keep on coming...
Ah yes Neapolitan, the evidence keeps slapping us across the face, but as is human nature, we ignore the obvious until we have a crisis on hand. And usually by that point, when we finally stop denying the obvious, it's either almost to late to correct the situation, or "the ship has sailed", and we're left with trying to cope or clean up the mess.
"A Category 2 hurricane like the 1821 hurricane would be far worse, and could result in severe global economic consequences. A 15-foot storm surge from such a hurricane would swamp JFK and La Guardia airports. Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, shutting down Wall Street and New York City's Financial District."

Good shut Wall Street down!
Rudolph Red nose reindeer cartoon was on CBS last night and had that dang bearded guy in blue jacket.....thought of Patrick last night...lol
...The Hurricane Flood water Occupying Wall Street have been deemed a Public Hazard by the Mayor and the NYPD is en route to apprehend the waters at this time.






Quoting Neapolitan:
Several things immediately stand out:

"Three major sea level papers published since the IPCC report was issued in 2007 all agree that the IPCC significantly underestimated the potential sea level rise by 2100. In a 2009 interview with New Scientist magazine, sea level expert Stephan Rahmstorf said, "I sense that now a majority of sea level experts would agree with me that the IPCC projections are much too low.""

The other major reason that strong hurricanes have trouble making it to New England is that wind shear generally increases as one gets closer to the pole, due to the presence of the powerful winds of the polar jet stream. However, climate change theory predicts that the jet stream should migrate poleward during the coming decades, potentially reducing the amount of wind shear hurricanes arriving in New England will experience

"...sea level rise will amplify the impact of future hurricanes and Nor'easters. If we replay the 20th century but add an extra foot of sea level at the start (the extra foot we indeed started with in 2000, compared to 1900), about six events would produce higher water levels than the Nor'easter of 1992.

Any one of those is cause, I think, for alarm. But all three? Yikes.

The hits just keep on coming...


Key words right there...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Rudolph Red nose reindeer cartoon was on CBS last night and had that dang bearded guy in blue jacket.....thought of Patrick last night...lol


"Nuttin"..

I enjoyed it for the 47th time last night as well.


Still get the willies everytime I see a Jack n' da Box..

That's like predicting where the hurricane is going to go or should go. Or the jet stream will pontentially shear the hurricane

Guessing game
Quoting Patrap:


"Nuttin"..

I enjoyed it for the 47th time last night as well.


Still get the willies everytime I see a Jack n' da Box..



lol, was wondering if you were watching it
On a serious note as to the entry,

..from Mr Guerra's lips to our ears..

its worth the look and listen.

Aug 29th,2005 Chalmette,Louisiana, 8 Miles East of NOLA Downtown.


Quoting RitaEvac:
"A Category 2 hurricane like the 1821 hurricane would be far worse, and could result in severe global economic consequences. A 15-foot storm surge from such a hurricane would swamp JFK and La Guardia airports. Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, shutting down Wall Street and New York City's Financial District."

Good shut Wall Street down!
Hmmm.....let's see where this goes. Shut Wall Street down and NYC's financial district, one of THE MAJOR drivers of world wide finance. That would bring intra country commerce to a halt or slow grind, thus import/export almost to a stop. Therefore, no coffee imported. What would you do for morning coffee, not to mention all of the crap and kitsch thats bought from Walmart.
Makes perfect sense to me!
Awaiting Nea's 2 page write up as he is frantically writing it up at this moment...lol
Neapolitan can write it, post it, and it will be above the comprehension of most that read this blog.
Quoting Patrap:


Uploaded by moviemagg on Aug 1, 2009

This is actual film footage taken in Islamorada in the Florida Keys of some of the damage caused by the most intense Hurricane to ever hit any part of the United States mainland in recorded history.

This Hurricane struck on Labor Day September 2, 1935 with little advance warning as the National Weather Service office in Jacksonville predicted this storm to move west through the Florida straits between Havana and Key West.
However the storm moved on a Northwest course and tore into the middle Florida Keys during the late afternoon and early evening of Monday September 2nd 1935 with sustained winds of 200-MPH and gusts as high as 250-MPH. An incredibale storm surge of 15 to 25 feet completely covered the middle Keys. A relief train sent down from Miami to evacuate several hundred WWI veterans, was knocked off it's tracks.
The offical death toll stands at 408-people, however hundreds more were reported missing and most of those were never found.

Over the eons, thousands of such storms must have raked the Keys. The buildings and roads and railroad tracks our forebears constructed offered not a whit of resistance or impediment to the wind and waves of the '35 storm. Yet we built again in spite of--or maybe because of--the next monster hurricane that will surely follow. Whether it's folly or bravery, I'm not sure. Probably a little (or a lot) of both...
Thank you Dr.Masters,for the extensive and comprehensive blog post.
Not wanting to appear over simplistic on the subject of the sea wall but would it not be a simple enough matter for New York's civil engineers to raise the height of the wall by a few feet? I'm sure we could help to draw up the necessary plans quite quickly. After all it can't be anything like as complex as sending a rover to Mars?
Of course any raising of the wall will have to be periodically repeated as the projected rise in sea levels creep up it.
I would speculate that we will have some noteworthy comments on this blog over the next day or so.
The Nov 1950 Superstorm caused wind gusts to 108mph at Newark Airport.

See Bog http://oceanweatherservices.com/blog1/2011/11/23/n ovember-1950-superstorm/
I'm getting ERROR on page notices!
So that might have made a mess of my post at 25.
If So I apologize but I can't read all of the post
To see if it came over OK.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Over the eons, thousands of such storms must have raked the Keys. The buildings and roads and railroad tracks our forebears constructed offered not a whit of resistance or impediment to the wind and waves of the '35 storm. Yet we built again in spite of--or maybe because of--the next monster hurricane that will surely follow. Whether it's folly or bravery, I'm not sure. Probably a little (or a lot) of both...


reminds me of somewhere....
Quoting RitaEvac:
"A Category 2 hurricane like the 1821 hurricane would be far worse, and could result in severe global economic consequences. A 15-foot storm surge from such a hurricane would swamp JFK and La Guardia airports. Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, shutting down Wall Street and New York City's Financial District."

Good shut Wall Street down!


Occupy Wall Street---(With Storm Surge). Let's see the police evict 5 feet of water!
Quoting PlazaRed:
Thank you Dr.Masters,for the extensive and comprehensive blog post.
Not wanting to appear over simplistic on the subject of the sea wall but would it not be a simple enough matter for New York's civil engineers to raise the height of the wall by a few feet? I'm sure we could help to draw up the necessary plans quite quickly. After all it can't be anything like as complex as sending a rover to Mars?
Of course any raising of the wall will have to be periodically repeated as the projected rise in sea levels creep up it.
I would speculate that we will have some noteworthy comments on this blog over the next day or so.


You could raise the Manhattan sea walls. However, that would not protect JFK and LGA airports, the power plants along the Hudson River, nor 200,000 people in low-lying areas that would be protected by the proposed storm surge barriers.

Jeff Masters
250 mph gusts...thats crazy!!
When I hear NYC sea wall I think of the History channel program "2100" in which a seawall is built but fails in a hurricane anyway.....
History shows again and again how nature points up the folly of man,
Godzilla!

History shows again and again how nature points up the folly of man,
Godzilla!


Blue Oyster Cult
Quoting fredwx:
The Nov 1950 Superstorm caused wind gusts to 108mph at Newark Airport.

See Bog http://oceanweatherservices.com/blog1/2011/11/23/n ovember-1950-superstorm/


There was a gap, in your link.

Try this one

Nice write up.
So... what effects would there be from climate change heading colder instead of warmer? lower sea level due to increased glacial and polar icepack would cripple the shipping industry. Islands would have a building boom with all the added real estate..
Holding an end of the 2011 hurricane season Party at my house tonight. Everyone' invited!

Plenty of Fresca on hand! Will have games to keep everyone entertained such as, Show us your F5 speed, Don't quote the troll or your lose, and Pin the tail on the hurricane center.

Appetizers will include grilled crow for all those who have earned it this season.

Hope everyone can make it!



We have had much stronger storms in the past,if we had the proper instruments back then,they would probably be found to be even stronger!
Quoting miguel617:
Holding an end of the 2011 hurricane season Party at my house tonight. Everyone' invited!

Plenty of Fresca on hand! Will have games to keep everyone entertained such as, Show us your F5 speed, Don't quote the troll or your lose, and Pin the tail on the hurricane center.

Appetizers will include grilled crow for all those who have earned it this season.

Hope everyone can make it!





Is your avatar Hurricane Gilbert?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Is your avatar Hurricane Gilbert?


Hurricane Dean 2007, Cat 5 at landfall
Quoting miguel617:


Hurricane Dean 2007, Cat 5 at landfall


Impressive! I do not remember where Gilbert made landfall there but, it sure looks close. Gilbert was another monster, in that area.

Gilbert at 185 mph with a pressure down to 888

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Impressive! I do not remember where Gilbert made landfall there but, it sure looks close. Gilbert was another monster, in that area.

Gilbert at 185 mph with a pressure down to 888



The strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic always seem to be strongest in the NW carribean and the GOM. Katrina, Wilma, Gilbert, Ivan, Dean, Emily, and others I may have forgotten to mention were strongest in that area.
Quoting JeffMasters:


You could raise the Manhattan sea walls. However, that would not protect JFK and LGA airports, the power plants along the Hudson River, nor 200,000 people in low-lying areas that would be protected by the proposed storm surge barriers.

Jeff Masters


Is it just the airports, power plants and homes outside barriers? Or does water creep in and flood areas behind sea walls via sewers, subways and such infrastructure that simply doesn't work if it is blocked off?

I suspect such quantities of water may be manageable for quite a while .... and we are all dead in the long run unless you believe in reducing discount rates to give future generations a chance. Ho. hum, if economics doesn't give the answer you think it ought, then .... umm. ... err. ..... there are lots of ways to change the economic framework or ....
Quoting JNCali:
So... what effects would there be from climate change heading colder instead of warmer? lower sea level due to increased glacial and polar icepack would cripple the shipping industry. Islands would have a building boom with all the added real estate..


If the climate was cooling rather than rapidly warming then populations would be moving toward the equator where there is more land mass than toward the poles where there is less.

Sea levels would be slowly dropping which would take pressure off our coastal cities and island cultures.

Extreme weather events such as the 'thousand year' floods we've been experiencing would be decreasing as the cooler air held less moisture.

Droughts and heat waves would be less problematic.

Extreme cooling would be a difficult condition for humans. A full ice age would not be a piece of cake. But the next ice age would have arrived over thousands of years. Not in decades as the arrival of the next global bake may be.
Thanks DRM.

Since Irene was an exceptionally
large storm with winds that covered a huge stretch of ocean, the storm
had a much larger storm surge than it peak winds would suggest, and
could have easily brought a storm surge of 15 - 20 feet to New York
City.


That part right there may also be some major city's undoing. Sadly...well we all know what happened with Ike. We learn our lessons hard.
Quoting JLPR2:
Thank you for the new entry Dr. M!
Jeez New York is not tropical cyclone friendly.

Also, hey everyone, been gone for awhile and I'm currently buried under a pile of university projects. Sigh...

But check it out, our 20% circle looks interestingly interesting. ha!



I wonder what the NNHC will say in their last TWO of the year today at 7 PM
Do you know that 90L can be a major disaster in Poland?
More about this(translated by Google,edited by me:


"Forecasts for the turn of this and next week are very disturbing. After the resignation of stable highs from the middle of Europe, has created a corridor, which wander wet and windy Atlantic lows.

At the end of this week, the number of these lows in northern and north-west of the continent will increase.

They will not only pass over the middle and northern Scandinavia, but on the southern Baltic Sea, thus wiping, among other things for Poland.

This type of low-pressure areas are particularly dangerous because it brings us not only to rapid pressure drop to the record, but also the gusty wind speeds of 70-80 mph, not only in Pomerania, but in most regions of the country.

At this time, the low called 90L is on the north of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean. American meteorologists monitor it because it can be transformed into a tropical cyclone, although the probability is only 20 percent.

Storm almost at the speed of light will cross the Atlantic and goes north, on Friday (2.12) pass to the east of Newfoundland, and on Saturday (3.12) will enter the North Atlantic.

On Sunday (4.12) will start devastation of Ireland and England. Wind will reach 55-65mph, including on the streets of London. On the night of Sunday to Monday (4/5.12) storms will rage in northern France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Germany.

In Poland, the first storm will appear in the western provinces. Until Monday (5.12) almost everywhere,in the morning,the south-west gusts of wind are forecasted to beup to 45-50mph, in the west even to 55mph, and the south-west to 65mph and more.

During the day the situation will deteriorate in the country,winds will reach 55-60mph. In the west, in the center, on the north and northeast to 70-80mph . The pressure at this time on the north shore Polish will drop to about 960 hPa and may be the lowest in the history of measurements.

So far, the lowest pressure recorded in 1989 and 2007, when it amounted to be 965 and 966 hPa. This means that between Sunday and Monday morning in northern Poland, the pressure drops up to 30 hPa, but starting today, even with almost 50 hPa.

This is bad news for people suffering from cardiovascular disease. Monday's hurricane effects may be similar to those of the time storm Kyrill in January 2007.

Wind power will depend on how low-pass center lowlands. The farther north from the Polish coast, the smaller will be the focus of the strongest wind, and the closer to the coast, the heaviest wind zone will encroach into Polish. The situation is dynamic, so we will keep it on track and informed. www.twojapogoda.pl
Well I must say that NYC would be devastated for sure but Tampa Bay would be a lot worse...
Quoting JNCali:
So... what effects would there be from climate change heading colder instead of warmer? lower sea level due to increased glacial and polar icepack would cripple the shipping industry. Islands would have a building boom with all the added real estate..


Shipping industry would have to build new ports at about the same rates as now if the cooling was as prolonged, consistent and of similar magniture to current warming? Perhaps it would be little worse as trend in shipping has been towards bigger ships that need deeper water so we have benefited from GW by not having to build new ports as often as might normally be the case. So some extra cost more by random chance than by magnitude of change from GW. But does that cripple them? Why coun't they pass on extra costs to customers whose choice is probably only more expensive air transport.


Added real estate at current rate of loss would create a tiny bit of extra space, but building boom? Surely wealth of populations matters far more to level of building and maybe tiny extra bits of farm land means wealthier residents.



Quoting BobWallace:


If the climate was cooling rather than rapidly warming then populations would be moving toward the equator where there is more land mass than toward the poles where there is less.

Sea levels would be slowly dropping which would take pressure off our coastal cities and island cultures.

Extreme weather events such as the 'thousand year' floods we've been experiencing would be decreasing as the cooler air held less moisture.

Droughts and heat waves would be less problematic.

Extreme cooling would be a difficult condition for humans. A full ice age would not be a piece of cake. But the next ice age would have arrived over thousands of years. Not in decades as the arrival of the next global bake may be.


More land nearer equator? I would say vast areas of Northern Canada and Russia have extremely low population density so fewer problems from overcrowding nearer poles.

Agree less pressure on our coastal cities and island cultures. Yes less downpours but I am much less convinced about other extreme events. For precipitation high rainfall tail is probably getting thicker so for cooling would get thinner. For others I am not convinced there is any measurable change in shape of distribution and level of extreme events therefore depends much more on rate of climate change whichever direction it is.

A 5C change to last glacial maximum conditions would be much worse than a 5C warming. More wars in cooler conditions does not seem implausible. A 5C warming over next 100 to 200 years making complete melt of Greenland & West Antartica pretty much inevitable over next several hundred years wouldn't be easy to cope with just not as difficult as 5C cooling.

The video was taken in Chalmette and Meraux, a suburb to the east of New Orleans in St. Bernard parish
Another video of a family in hurricane katrina.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
Well I must say that NYC would be devastated for sure but Tampa Bay would be a lot worse...

NYC=more people then Tampa Bay.
More people probably= more destruction + deaths.
Sorry but I have to disagree.

I think a thing to remember is that the US has not been hit by a Cat 3 in over 6 years, a record that was last seen over 100 years ago.

So much for those big hurricanes caused by man made global warming.
Quoting Articuno:

NYC=more people then Tampa Bay.
More people probably= more destruction + deaths.
Sorry but I have to disagree.
I with you on this..Possible Nor,Easter brewing this weekend or early next week..Link
Quoting Articuno:

NYC=more people then Tampa Bay.
More people probably= more destruction + deaths.
Sorry but I have to disagree.


Tampa Bay would probably get it just as bad as NYC or even worse, because the surge would slosh around the bay and just get bigger.


Also the reason why so many "new" heat records are made is because so many new weater reporting sites has been put into service in the past 20 years... many are automated.

Thus naturally they will report new record highs over and over as their data period is so short.

Looking at stations with 120 year histories like Los Angeles and other major cities, most record highs are not in recent years. Many are still from the 1800's
Secret Space Plane Still Flying, 7 Months Later




VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The secretive X-37B robotic space plane is about to set its own space-endurance record on a hush-hush project operated by the U.S. Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office.

The craft, also known as the Orbital Test Vehicle-2, was boosted into Earth orbit atop an Atlas 5 rocket from Cape Canaveral, Fla., on March 5. Tomorrow (Nov. 30), the X-37B spacecraft will mark its 270th day of flight — a lifetime in space that was heralded in the past as the vehicle's upper limit for spaceflight by project officials.

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Air Force Launches Robotic Space Plane on Mystery MissionRelated Slideshow

Inside the Air Force's Secret Space Plane


The U.S. Air Force launched the robotic X-37B space plane in early 2010 on a space mission that remains a secret -- even after the craft touched ground 225 days later at Vandenberg Air Force Base. In early 2011, the ship took off again on its latest mission.


"It's still up there," U.S. Air Force Maj. Tracy Bunko of the Air Force Press Desk at the Pentagon, told SPACE.com, noting that project officials planned for a 9- month-plus mission, "so we're close to that now."

The X-37B's staying power is made feasible by its deployable solar array power system, unfurled from the vehicle's cargo bay. [Photos: Air Force's 2nd Secret X-37B Mission]

Built by Boeing's Phantom Works, the X-37B spacecraft is about 29 feet (8.8 meters) long and 15 feet (4.5 meters) wide. It has a payload bay about the size of a pickup truck bed.

The X-37B resembles a miniature version of NASA's space shuttle. Two X-37Bs could fit inside the 60-foot (18-meter) cargo bay of a space shuttle.

The U.S. Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office "expedites development and fielding of select Department of Defense combat support and weapon systems by leveraging defense-wide technology development efforts and existing operational capabilities," according to an office fact sheet.

"Currently, RCO is working on the X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle to demonstrate a reliable, reusable, unmanned space test platform for the United States Air Force," the fact sheet explains.

Extended flight

As first reported by SPACE.com in early October, the extended flight of the craft was in the cards from the beginning, said Air Force Lt. Col. Tom McIntyre, the X-37 systems program director.

McIntyre said that X-37B controllers initially planned a 9-month mission but would try to extend it "as circumstances allow." He added that more flight time would give program officials additional experimentation opportunities and permit its operators to extract the maximum value out of the mission, he said.

The maiden voyage of the first winged X-37B took place in 2010, a mission that lasted 225 days. That inaugural trek started on April 22, and ended with a Dec. 3 touchdown at a specially prepared landing strip at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The vehicle now orbiting is the second craft of this type to be built by Boeing.

The X-37B is operated under the direction of Air Force Space Command's 3rd Space Experimentation Squadron, a space control unit located at Schriever Air Force Base in Colorado.

The payload inside the vehicle flying in space is classified.

Future uses

When this second X-37B flight does end, it is designed to carry out an automatic guided-entry-and-wheels-down runway landing, likely at Vandenberg Air Force Base, with neighboring Edwards Air Force Base serving as a backup.

If the incoming space plane strays off its auto-pilot trajectory as it zooms over the Pacific Ocean, the craft has a self-destruct mechanism.

As for the future of the X-37B series, derivatives of the vehicle have been proposed as possibilities to fly cargo and even crew to the International Space Station.

Arthur Grantz of Boeing Space and Intelligence Systems sketched out a host of future uses for the space plane design at a recent meeting of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

Grantz said, for one, the X-37B as designed now can be flown to the space station and supply cargo services by docking to the facility's common berthing mechanism. A Boeing roadmap, he added, includes an X-37C winged vehicle, as well as a version able to carry up to seven astronauts into Earth orbit.
90L has the classical extratropical to subtropical transition look.

Quoting Patrap:
On a serious note as to the entry,

..from Mr Guerra's lips to our ears..

its worth the look and listen.

Aug 29th,2005 Chalmette,Louisiana, 8 Miles East of NOLA Downtown.




And whats wrong with the picture, 3 days notice prior to Katrina's arrival, those folks were told to leave, and before that, living in an area that are prone to Hurricane's one would have a hightened awareness!
I'm sorry, I'm the guy who has to risk my sorry butt to rescue these folks, I've asked many times before, why did you stay, they say, I thought I could ride it out, done it before, can do it again.
Not after one of these storms.
Besides, Government will save us, I always depend on government to be my savior.
That's the mindset of many Americans these day, folks Government can't get there to save everyone.
With budgets cuts, the rescue and first responders are the first place where budgets are cut, so the social programs can survive!
Not 3 days. 36 hours. The evacuation orders were not issued until Saturday night. Katrina was Monday morning.

Quoting trunkmonkey:


And whats wrong with the picture, 3 days notice prior to Katrina's arrival, those folks were told to leave, and before that, living in an area that are prone to Hurricane's one would have a hightened awareness!
I'm sorry, I'm the guy who has to risk my sorry butt to rescue these folks, I've asked many times before, why did you stay, they say, I thought I could ride it out, done it before, can do it again.
Not after one of these storms.
Besides, Government will save us, I always depend on government to be my savior.
That's the mindset of many Americans these day, folks Government can't get there to save everyone.
With budgets cuts, the rescue and first responders are the first place where budgets are cut, so the social programs can survive!
Quoting qwerqerwtsdgshsgfh:


Also the reason why so many "new" heat records are made is because so many new weater reporting sites has been put into service in the past 20 years... many are automated.

Thus naturally they will report new record highs over and over as their data period is so short.

Looking at stations with 120 year histories like Los Angeles and other major cities, most record highs are not in recent years. Many are still from the 1800's


Los Angeles set their all time heat record last September.
Quoting yqt1001:
90L has the classical extratropical - subtropical transition look.


Just like how Sean started.
The CSU yearly verification and summary of the season is out. It states that the unnamed storm near Bermuda was active from Sept 1st to Sept 2nd and that it had a peak intensity of 40kts and 1002mb. It also states that the US has been extremely lucky the past 6 years to not yet feel another MH, as usually one per year makes landfall on the US. However, Jeff Masters did say that had Gustav and Ike hit in the pre-recon era, they would've been classified as MH landfalls because of the likely sparse accurate data received and the widespread damage.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011 /nov2011/nov2011.pdf

Also, their forecasts will be released on Dec 7th for the 2012 hurricane season.
Quoting qwerqerwtsdgshsgfh:


Also the reason why so many "new" heat records are made is because so many new weater reporting sites has been put into service in the past 20 years... many are automated.

Thus naturally they will report new record highs over and over as their data period is so short.

Looking at stations with 120 year histories like Los Angeles and other major cities, most record highs are not in recent years. Many are still from the 1800's


Yeah, and the ones from the 1700 & 1800's were probably put right in the middle of airports so the record temperatures were even higher.
Quoting qwerqerwtsdgshsgfh:


Also the reason why so many "new" heat records are made is because so many new weater reporting sites has been put into service in the past 20 years... many are automated.

Thus naturally they will report new record highs over and over as their data period is so short.

Looking at stations with 120 year histories like Los Angeles and other major cities, most record highs are not in recent years. Many are still from the 1800's

If your logic is correct, why would the preponderance of new temperature records be on the high side? It seems to me the number of high temp records and low temp records would be about the same over the long run. They're not. Why is that?

FWIW, the all-time high temperature in Los Angeles of 113 was set just last year.
Quoting qwerqerwtsdgshsgfh:

I think a thing to remember is that the US has not been hit by a Cat 3 in over 6 years, a record that was last seen over 100 years ago.

So much for those big hurricanes caused by man made global warming.

Do you know of any credible climate scientist who predicted there'd be more land-falling hurricanes?
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Not 3 days. 36 hours. The evacuation orders were not issued until Saturday night. Katrina was Monday morning.




That was the Gov. and Mayor fault. The NHC had it pegged to move into the area 3 days in advance with incredible Model agreement.
Quoting qwerqerwtsdgshsgfh:


Also the reason why so many "new" heat records are made is because so many new weater reporting sites has been put into service in the past 20 years... many are automated.

Thus naturally they will report new record highs over and over as their data period is so short.

Looking at stations with 120 year histories like Los Angeles and other major cities, most record highs are not in recent years. Many are still from the 1800's


Also if the proliferation of new stations were responsible for the increase in record high temperatures, then there should be the same increase in the number of record low temperatures.
Quoting Neapolitan:

If your logic is correct, why would the preponderance of new temperature records be on the high side? It seems to me the number of high temp records and low temp records would be about the same over the long run. They're not. Why is that?

FWIW, the all-time high temperature in Los Angeles of 113 was set just last year.
Do you know of any credible climate scientist who predicted there'd be more land-falling hurricanes?


Why must you be so......factual?!?!?! It's pretty annoying, ya know...
Quoting TampaSpin:



That was the Gov. and Mayor fault. The NHC had it pegged to move into the area 3 days in advance with incredible Model agreement.


Not so. 3 days before on August 26 the forecast was for Katrina to hit the western part of the Florida panhandle or southern Alabama. Here is the discussion from August 26 at 11 a.m.

At that time Katrina was never forecast to go west of 86.3 W. That is about 55 miles east of Pensacola.
And shortly we officially close the book on the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season!!!
Quoting yqt1001:
The CSU yearly verification and summary of the season is out. It states that the unnamed storm near Bermuda was active from Sept 1st to Sept 2nd and that it had a peak intensity of 40kts and 1002mb. It also states that the US has been extremely lucky the past 6 years to not yet feel another MH, as usually one per year makes landfall on the US. However, Jeff Masters did say that had Gustav and Ike hit in the pre-recon era, they would've been classified as MH landfalls because of the likely sparse accurate data received and the widespread damage.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011 /nov2011/nov2011.pdf

Also, their forecasts will be released on Dec 7th for the 2012 hurricane season.
That should be interesting...I do not think an El-Nino event will return in time to effect next years hurricane season dramatically. The climate has had it share of surprises though.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Not 3 days. 36 hours. The evacuation orders were not issued until Saturday night. Katrina was Monday morning.



Bookmark and Share
Evening August 26, 2005: New Orleans Mayor, Other Parish Officials Urge Residents to Prepare, Pay Attention
Edit event

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin tells the Times-Picayune that he is alarmed with Hurricane Katrina’s potential path and the lack of time available to prepare for such a large storm. “This storm really scares me,” he says. The state’s new Contraflow Plan calls for evacuation plans to be implemented 50 hours before a storm hits. “That’s why I’m trying to stress to everyone now to get prepared,” Nagin says. City officials will not make a decision regarding emergency measures or evacuations until Saturday, which will not give residents much time to prepare. Officials from Jefferson Parish, St. Bernard Parish, and Plaquemines Parish also encourage residents to prepare for the storm. [Times-Picayune, 8/27/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, Ray Nagin

Category Tags: Pre-Impact Katrina, Louisiana: NOLA, Evacuation, Execution of Emergency Plans


Beg to differ with you pal! but August 26th, 2005 is three day!
Don't mix facts with emotions!
Quoting presslord:


Why must you be so......factual?!?!?! It's pretty annoying, ya know...
Factual.....FACTUAL..!!!!!!..Hello Press, how are things in the...Well you know.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


Not so. 3 days before on August 26 the forecast was for Katrina to hit the western part of the Florida panhandle or southern Alabama. Here is the discussion from August 26 at 11 a.m.

At that time Katrina was never forecast to go west of 86.3 W. That is about 55 miles east of Pensacola.



NOT TRUE AT ALL..........3 days out...the NHC had already warned of the danger.....THAT IS A FACT along nearly every single model.....that is a fact!
Quoting hydrus:
Factual.....FACTUAL..!!!!!!..Hello Press, how are things in the...Well you know.


Cold!!! You good?
Quoting presslord:


Cold!!! You good?
Very cold..Snow yesterday. Forecast low for me is 25 degrees. Long range forecast calls for the temperatures to vary considerably the next couple weeks.
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE AT ALL..........3 days out...the NHC had already warned of the danger.....THAT IS A FACT along with every single model.....that is a fact!


TampaSpin what I said is true. I linked the NHC discussion from the time, 11 a.m. August 26. 3 days before landfall. The discussion had the center of Katrina's cone going into the Florida panhandle about 55-60 miles east of Pensacola.

Pensacola is at 87.2 west and the furthest west forecast position was 86.3 west.

You may believe your recollections, but they are completely wrong.
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE AT ALL..........3 days out...the NHC had already warned of the danger.....THAT IS A FACT along nearly every single model.....that is a fact!

How is it not true? Three days before Katrina made landfall, it WAS expected to make landfall on the Florida panhandle.

THAT is a fact!
TrunkMonkey, the article says "prepare and pay attention". It is not an evacuation order. The evacuation orders for New Orleans were not issued until Saturday night, August 27.

Quoting trunkmonkey:


Bookmark and Share
Evening August 26, 2005: New Orleans Mayor, Other Parish Officials Urge Residents to Prepare, Pay Attention
Edit event

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin tells the Times-Picayune that he is alarmed with Hurricane Katrina%u2019s potential path and the lack of time available to prepare for such a large storm. %u201CThis storm really scares me,%u201D he says. The state%u2019s new Contraflow Plan calls for evacuation plans to be implemented 50 hours before a storm hits. %u201CThat%u2019s why I%u2019m trying to stress to everyone now to get prepared,%u201D Nagin says. City officials will not make a decision regarding emergency measures or evacuations until Saturday, which will not give residents much time to prepare. Officials from Jefferson Parish, St. Bernard Parish, and Plaquemines Parish also encourage residents to prepare for the storm. [Times-Picayune, 8/27/2005]

Entity Tags: Hurricane Katrina, Ray Nagin

Category Tags: Pre-Impact Katrina, Louisiana: NOLA, Evacuation, Execution of Emergency Plans


Beg to differ with you pal! but August 26th, 2005 is three day!
Don't mix facts with emotions!
Quoting petewxwatcher:


TampaSpin what I said is true. I linked the NHC discussion from the time, 11 a.m. August 26. 3 days before landfall. The discussion had the center of Katrina's cone going into the Florida panhandle about 55-60 miles east of Pensacola.

You may believe your recollections, but they are completely wrong.
Excerpt from Wiki.....On the morning of Friday, August 26, at 10 am CDT (1500 UTC), Katrina had strengthened to a Category 3 storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Later that afternoon, the NHC realized that Katrina had yet to make the turn toward the Florida Panhandle and ended up revising the predicted track of the storm from the panhandle to the Mississippi coast.[10][11] The NHC issued a hurricane watch for southeastern Louisiana, including the New Orleans area at 10 am CDT Saturday, August 27. That afternoon the NHC extended the watch to cover the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines as well as the Louisiana coast to Intracoastal City.
Quoting hydrus:
Very cold..Snow yesterday. Forecast low for me is 25 degrees. Long range forecast calls for the temperatures to vary considerably the next couple weeks.


OK...now I'm not feelin' nearly so cold...




HERE IS THE 5PM CONE ON FRIDAY!!!!



KEEP in MIND the MODELS had ALREADY shifted before this UPDATE.....This is a FACT!
Another interesting excerpt......By August 26, the possibility of unprecedented cataclysm was already being considered. Many of the computer models had shifted the potential path of Katrina 150 miles (240 km) westward from the Florida Panhandle, putting the city of New Orleans directly in the center of their track probabilities; the chances of a direct hit were forecast at 17%, with strike probability rising to 29% by August 28.[30] This scenario was considered a potential catastrophe because some parts of New Orleans and the metro area are below sea level. Since the storm surge produced by the hurricane's right-front quadrant (containing the strongest winds) was forecast to be 28 feet (8.5 m), emergency management officials in New Orleans feared that the storm surge could go over the tops of levees protecting the city, causing major flooding.[31]
Quoting presslord:


OK...now I'm not feelin' nearly so cold...
This is going to be a strange winter..The past three have been stormy and weird here on the plateau, and that is putting it lightly.
Quoting TampaSpin:




HERE IS THE 5PM CONE ON FRIDAY!!!!


Which takes the center to the AL/MS border.

The 11 a.m forecast cone is here. Which is 3 days before Monday morning.

Quoting TampaSpin:




HERE IS THE 5PM CONE ON FRIDAY!!!!

Yeah, just skip all of the ones that show it making landfall in Florida, and go to the one that showed it making landfall in Louisiana. Lol!

Quoting petewxwatcher:


Which takes the center to the AL/MS border.

The 11 a.m forecast cone is here. Which is 3 days before Monday morning.




The Models had already shifted West tho....that was why the Cone was so large
I just noticed something.
Hey Folks. Been super busy lately so have not posted in a while but needed to post this on the last day of the season. In reading through Dr. Master's post today I am reminded, and always amazed, at the large breath of his knowledge base and the many interesting and fascinating topics that he chooses and discusses in great detail in this Blog.

Some people give him grief during the hurricane season when he posts on GW issues or other topics which might be considered "off topic" by some (even if we are in a lull period) but whether you may agree or not agree with him at times, this Blog is a great asset for weather enthusiasts and I have a great amount of respect for Dr. M; he is quite the "jack of all trades" weather wise and gives up plenty of very interesting topics to discuss and ponder on.

In closing, just want to wish Dr. Master's and all of the regulars a Happy Holiday Season; plenty of severe Winter weather, and the Spring tornado season, to "look forward" to between now and June of next year.

PEACE.
At any rate there was not "strong model agreement" on Friday. That's completely false. There was a strong westward shift in the models during the day.

A voluntary evacuation order for New Orleanswas issued Saturday night. The mandatory evacuation order was not issued until 11 a.m. Sunday.
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE AT ALL..........3 days out...the NHC had already warned of the danger.....THAT IS A FACT


Here are the facts -

Hurricane KATRINA

ZCZC MIASPFAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.0N 86.0W 46 X X X 46 BURAS LA X 2 11 6 19
26.0N 87.5W 20 10 X X 30 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 8 9 17

27.0N 89.0W 1 15 6 1 23 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 12 14
MUAN 219N 850W 2 X X X 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 9 9
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7
VENICE FL 1 1 X 1 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5
TAMPA FL X 1 1 1 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 3 5 GULF 29N 85W 1 9 3 2 15
ST MARKS FL X 1 4 4 9 GULF 29N 87W 1 13 5 2 21
APALACHICOLA FL X 5 5 3 13 GULF 28N 89W X 11 9 2 22
PANAMA CITY FL X 5 6 4 15 GULF 28N 91W X 1 11 5 17
PENSACOLA FL X 2 9 6 17 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 9 11
MOBILE AL X 1 8 8 17 GULF 28N 95W X X X 6 6
GULFPORT MS X 1 8 9 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


$$
NNNN

Link


The NHC's August 26, 2005 11 PM probabilities chart showed Buras, LA as having more that double the possibility for landfall than did NOLA. This places NOLA on the NW side of the storm which is generally the weaker side. ... Would I have left NOLA? Probably, if I could. Then again, I do not put much faith in levees. No matter who builds them.
What were the probabilities on 11 a.m. August 26?

That was 3 days before the landfall, after all :)

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Here are the facts -

Hurricane KATRINA

ZCZC MIASPFAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.0N 86.0W 46 X X X 46 BURAS LA X 2 11 6 19
26.0N 87.5W 20 10 X X 30 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 8 9 17

27.0N 89.0W 1 15 6 1 23 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 12 14
MUAN 219N 850W 2 X X X 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 9 9
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7
VENICE FL 1 1 X 1 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5
TAMPA FL X 1 1 1 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 3 5 GULF 29N 85W 1 9 3 2 15
ST MARKS FL X 1 4 4 9 GULF 29N 87W 1 13 5 2 21
APALACHICOLA FL X 5 5 3 13 GULF 28N 89W X 11 9 2 22
PANAMA CITY FL X 5 6 4 15 GULF 28N 91W X 1 11 5 17
PENSACOLA FL X 2 9 6 17 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 9 11
MOBILE AL X 1 8 8 17 GULF 28N 95W X X X 6 6
GULFPORT MS X 1 8 9 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


$$
NNNN

Link


The NHC's August 26, 2005 11 PM probabilities chart showed Buras, LA as having more that double the possibility for landfall than did NOLA. This places NOLA on the NW side of the storm which is generally the weaker side. ... Would I have left NOLA? Probably, if I could. Then again, I do not put much faith in levees. No matter who builds them.
Quoting Neapolitan:

If your logic is correct, why would the preponderance of new temperature records be on the high side? It seems to me the number of high temp records and low temp records would be about the same over the long run. They're not. Why is that?

FWIW, the all-time high temperature in Los Angeles of 113 was set just last year.
Do you know of any credible climate scientist who predicted there'd be more land-falling hurricanes?


It's heat island effects, telling ya one day it's going to be the reason why temp readings are higher
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

The highest probability APALACHICOLA FL 1 7 5 6 19

New Orleans probability NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 9 10

Which was lower than the probability for Jacksonville FL.

JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 6 13

Read the probabilites from 11 a.m. August 26, 3 days before landfall, here.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
What were the probabilities on 11 a.m. August 26?

That was 3 days before the landfall, after all :)



Well, they are not going to like this but, here it is:

Hurricane KATRINA

ZCZC MIASPFAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.5N 84.3W 48 X X X 48 CEDAR KEY FL 4 8 3 3 18
26.2N 85.2W 32 1 X X 33 ST MARKS FL X 6 5 6 17
27.1N 85.9W 14 7 1 2 24 APALACHICOLA FL 1 7 5 6 19
MUHA 230N 824W 2 X X X 2 PANAMA CITY FL X 4 7 7 18
MARATHON FL 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X 5 10 15
MIAMI FL X 1 X 2 3 MOBILE AL X X 2 11 13
W PALM BEACH FL X 1 1 2 4 GULFPORT MS X X 1 11 12
FT PIERCE FL X 2 2 3 7 BURAS LA X X 2 10 12
COCOA BEACH FL X 3 3 3 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 9 10
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 3 4 5 12 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 7 7
JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 6 13 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3
SAVANNAH GA X X 2 7 9 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2
CHARLESTON SC X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 85W 4 9 4 3 20
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 5 7 6 18
KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 89W X 1 6 7 14
MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 8 9
FT MYERS FL 58 X X X 58 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4
VENICE FL 35 X X X 35 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2
TAMPA FL 13 4 1 2 20

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN



Link

Looks like Florida was the expected landfall during the 11 AM adversary.
If the GFS pans out, the eastern third of the U.S.will be very stormy....My bad, wrong model..This is the GFS..
Yup looks that way Rookie!
why is everybody arguin bout Katrina's path? it was 6 year ago give it a break, what happened whas what happened. whoever yal are tryin to prove point to can be ignored if they are bein prideful and ignorant, lol
95 - doesn't that show fair weather?
90L seems to be consistently organizing

Quoting trunkmonkey:


And whats wrong with the picture, 3 days notice prior to Katrina's arrival, those folks were told to leave, and before that, living in an area that are prone to Hurricane's one would have a hightened awareness!
I'm sorry, I'm the guy who has to risk my sorry butt to rescue these folks, I've asked many times before, why did you stay, they say, I thought I could ride it out, done it before, can do it again.
Not after one of these storms.
Besides, Government will save us, I always depend on government to be my savior.
That's the mindset of many Americans these day, folks Government can't get there to save everyone.
With budgets cuts, the rescue and first responders are the first place where budgets are cut, so the social programs can survive!


My opinion on evacuations is known here. I'm a runner not a fighter.  ;-)

 But anyway,  one of the very few videos of Rita I've ever seen was of a first responder. He was a fireman from Los Angelas in Lake Charles for Rita. He was being interviewed inside a school I think? And he turns his head (and the camera turned) and you can see what looks like a very dark trailer park. I was like, wow it moved those concrete steps! My husband said, "No, the steps didn't move." The trailer had. What caught his attention was a light that kept bobbing behind the blinds. The fireman was like "You have got to be kidding me!" So he and at least the cameraman got into some kind of suv. The fireman got a young couple out of a window and ran them back to the suv. About 10 seconds before everything around them including their trailer was shredded and the windows of the suv blew out!  He ended the interview by saying, if they tell you to leave LEAVE!

Wish I could post the video. But the weather channel hasn't given it up to youtube that I could find. Saw it on the tail end of storm stories one time.
Quoting StAugustineFL:
95 - doesn't that show fair weather?
Yes, but there is blocking high pressure building near Greenland which usually brings the primary storm track into the U.S.
Quoting SPLbeater:
90L seems to be consistently organizing


It's actually interesting to see how quick these transitions take place. Really it's only 24-36 hours at most between when the low looks like a half cyclone/not even a cyclone to being a subtropical cyclone. NHC odds usually jump 20% while this takes place between the 6 hour TWOs. Just my observations.
Quoting yqt1001:


It's actually interesting to see how quick these transitions take place. Really it's only 24-36 hours at most between when the low looks like a half cyclone/not even a cyclone to being a subtropical cyclone. NHC odds usually jump 20% while this takes place between the 6 hour TWOs. Just my observations.


im really hopin this develops, because i started tracking in 09. this would be sweet to track a December system...except i would have to go get my atlantic tracking chart back out of the history folder, lol.
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, but there is blocking high pressure building near Greenland which usually brings the primary storm track into the U.S.


Time will tell. GFS has a strong, positive NAO for the next week then trending downwards towards mid-December. Only one model so we'll see if it holds. I'd like to see a good snowstorm in the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as long as it stays above freezing down here!
Threat to New Orleans grows
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:36 PM GMT on August 26, 2005

Latest compter model runs have shifted significantly west in the past six hours, and the threat of a strike on New Orleans by Katrina as a major hurricane has grown. The official NHC forecast is now 170 miles west of where it was at 11am, and still is to the east of the consensus model guidance. It would be no surprise if later advisories shift the forecast track even further west and put Katrina over New Orleans. Until Katrina makes its northward turn, I would cast a very doubtful eye on the model predictions of Katrina's track. So much for the model prediction being high confidence, as I was surmising at 8am this morning! Recurvature is a difficult situation to forecast correctly.

The pressure of Katrina has continued to slowly drop, to 965mb. Dry air on the northwest side of the hurricane has interfered with the strengthening process, and may continue to do so over the next day. I still expect Katrina to attain Category 3 status Saturday, but Category 4 is looking less likely due to the dry air to the north. As one can see from the latest long range radar out of Key West, the northwest side of the eyewall is fragmented.

Some fairly prodigious rain amounts fell in the Miami area today. Homestead south of Miami measured 13.2 inches, and isolated amounts of 15 - 20 inches were observed between Homestead and Miami. The 7.55 inches at Key West was its 10th heaviest rainy day in history.

Jeff Masters
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Time will tell. GFS has a strong, positive NAO for the next week then trending downwards towards mid-December. Only one model so we'll see if it holds. I'd like to see a good snowstorm in the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as long as it stays above freezing down here!
I posted earlier that I believe this will be a strange winter. Strange as in the storms effecting the U.S, in unusual ways..Like you said, wait and see.
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...OR 255 DEGRESS...AT 07
KT. KATRINA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE
WEST SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. BOTH THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
...WHICH ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...AND MOST OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THAT SCENARIO. AFTER 24 HOURS...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ERODE THE RIDGE...WHICH ALLOWS KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWARD BY 72
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD
AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BEING SHIFTED ABOUT 150 NMI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...
PROJECTED LANDFALL IS STILL ABOUT 72 HOURS AWAY...SO FURTHER
MODIFICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.
Quoting hydrus:
I posted earlier that I believe this will be a strange winter. Strange as in the storms effecting the U.S, in unusual ways..Like you said, wait and see.


Saw that. The winter season is just beginning. Might be a wild ride. We'll see what the next 3 months bring us...:)

Edit: the next 3 months for us southerners. Folks up north have another 5 months!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
23:30 PM IST November 30 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central And Adjoining North & East Central Arabian Sea.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered near 19.0N 62.5E, 1100 km west of Mumbai (India), 400 km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 800 km southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move north-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
23:30 PM IST November 30 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central And Adjoining North & East Central Arabian Sea.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered near 19.0N 62.5E, 1100 km west of Mumbai (India), 400 km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 800 km southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move north-northwestwards and weaken gradually.


they stil issueing warnings? wow, lol
the IMD will continue warnings until the Dvorak number is below T1.5

Quoting SPLbeater:


they stil issueing warnings? wow, lol
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's heat island effects, telling ya one day it's going to be the reason why temp readings are higher


My trouble is with the heat island effect is some of these places getting way up there night temps are places like Camden, NJ and Detroit, MI places that have been dealing with shrinking size since the 60's. If anything shouldn't the heat island effect be going in reverse in these cities? Especially Detroit which is dealing with having to rip up acre after acre of abandoned houses.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
AT 15-20 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ohh no!
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.


now what with 90L?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


ohh no!
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.


now what with 90L?

NOOOOO
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
AT 15-20 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ohh no!
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.


now what with 90L?
Someone said that it would move over Great Britain and parts of Europe as a intense damaging storm. They are having a rough go of it weather wise in those regions.
Quoting Articuno:

NOOOOO
sniffle, cry..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Someone said that it would move over Great Britain and parts of Europe as a intense damaging storm. They are having a rough go of it weather wise in those regions.


look an this 972 and the 948 mb one
With the final TWO posted, the season is officially over.

What did I learn this season? This blog is crazy. :)
Quoting yqt1001:
With the final TWO posted, the season is officially over.

What did I learn this season? This blog is crazy. :)


I like that one
+100
Granted the sun still had yet to rise in other parts of the nation, but for a while Maine was the warmest spot in the lower 48 this morning...

...and by quite a bit at that.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Granted the sun still had yet to rise in other parts of the nation, but for a while Maine was the warmest spot in the lower 48 this morning...

...and by quite a bit at that.
Looks like the U.S has caught a cold?!.Ha ha(I'm laughing at my own joke).
THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS ENDED
its over
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


look an this 972 and the 948 mb one
Yep, one after the other...I read this wrong..This is the sea temp model for the next 30 days..
Just 182 days, 23 hours, and 55 minutes until the 2012 hurricane season gets underway. Be sure to mark your calendar...
Happy end of the season everyone
Colorado State University (CSU) will be releasing their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions on December 7.

As for me, now that the season is over, I will be writing Tropical Cyclone Reports on all the systems during this season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Colorado State University (CSU) will be releasing their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions on December 7.

As for me, now that the season is over, I will be writing Tropical Cyclone Reports on all the systems during this season.

Same here, about to start... should be done in about 3 to 4 days, going to do quite a bit on the analysis of this season, and might talk briefly about next season.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


look an this 972 and the 948 mb one
This is a superb link about the NAO, which could turn negative by the middle of December...Link
Quoting hydrus:
This is a superb link about the NAO, which could turn negative by the middle of December...Link
So that means.....colder weather for us in the east!.I hope the storm track is in place so some snow could drop!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
So that means.....colder weather for us in the east!.I hope the storm track is in place so some snow could drop!!
If it happens..Needs more model support..I believe it will happen tho.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So that means.....colder weather for us in the east!.I hope the storm track is in place so some snow could drop!!


I want another Snowmageddon......
Quoting hydrus:
This is a superb link about the NAO, which could turn negative by the middle of December...Link
Certainly possible, although all of the current model runs keep the NAO positive for their forecast periods.

GFS Ensembles




12z plot of GFS and ECMWF operational and ensemble runs


Will south Florida get some cold air this winter? That is cold for us.
Quoting hydrus:
If it happens..Needs more model support..I believe it will happen tho.
It will happen because I will make it.Lol.J/K.But seriously I hope we get some snow during December.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I want another Snowmageddon......
I was outta work for a week(it felt as though I was laid off the job lol).The I were was really cranky because snow was everywhere and my husband and I really couldn't go anywhere.We had cabin fever!.I trully felt then how people in Alaska feel.You go mad!.
On "Hypuweather" in this day in history back in 1967 6 inches of snow fell in D.C.I wish that could occur now.I'm a snow lover :)!.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Will south Florida get some cold air this winter? That is cold for us.
Who knows, it's impossible to say definitively. Although, given the fact that we are in a La Nina and cold PDO, the SE US does tend to be warmer than average. We also currently have a strongly positive AO and if this persists through the winter you can expect a warmer winter.
Have any of you ever played with Cleverbot? You would think that talking to a bot would be boring, but its actually funny when you ask it questions and the answers it gives.

It was arguing with me about what I did and didn't say. I know what I said! lol.
Cleverbot: Are you a computer?
Me: No...Are you?
Cleverbot: No, are you?
Me: I just said no! are you?
Cleverbot: Yes I am.
Me: But you just said you weren't.
Cleverbot: I just said I was.
Me: Before that you said you weren't.
Cleverbot: But before that, I said I was.
Me: You mean after.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Certainly possible, although all of the current model runs keep the NAO positive for their forecast periods.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Have any of you ever played with Cleverbot? You would think that talking to a bot would be boring, but its actually funny when you ask it questions and the answers it gives.

It was arguing with me about what I did and didn't say. I know what I said! lol.
yea I have, haven't in a long time though.

------


Cleverbot: what you do today?
Me: I went to school.
Cleverbot: What school?
Me: Are you a pedophile?
Cleverbot: Yes, yes I am.
Quoting hydrus:

My link attempt failed..:0
Quoting TomTaylor:
yea I have, haven't in a long time though.

------


Cleverbot: what you do today?
Me: I went to school.
Cleverbot: What school?
Me: Are you a pedophile?
Cleverbot: Yes, yes I am.

LOL.
Quoting hydrus:
GFS?
I always prefer 12z and 0z runs over 6z and 18z runs because there is far more data going into those runs, but you're right there is a tiny sliver of negative on that run.
Cleverbot: You know what your problem is? You can't carry a conversation because you don't remember anything that we are discussing.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I always prefer 12z and 0z runs over 6z and 18z runs because there is far more data going into those runs, but you're right there is a tiny sliver of negative on that run.
Lmao..Damn near lost my coffee..I have no idea why that was so funny to me. I must be very tired.
Quoting hydrus:
Lmao..Damn near lost my coffee..I have no idea why that was so funny to me. I must be very tired.
not sure whats so funny about that either..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
AT 15-20 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ohh no!
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.


now what with 90L?


screw the NHC, idc if its mering with a cold front in 2 days look at the satellite and feel the winds. the circle aint orange, im not happy
i swear if the NHC ignores this thing because December is here, i will give my own forecasts. dont want to lol, but this wont be ignored. it IS more powerful the Jose....and more organized...result? SPLbeater is confused
Quoting SPLbeater:
i swear if the NHC ignores this thing because December is here, i will give my own forecasts. dont want to lol, but this wont be ignored. it IS more powerful the Jose....and more organized...result? SPLbeater is confused

Its definitely not more organized.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its definitely not more organized.


on satellite, it is
Quoting SPLbeater:


on satellite, it is

No. The main requirement for a tropical cyclone, or I should say, a MAJOR one, is the presence of a well-defined low level circulation. Invest 90L does not have that.

Jose is superior in every way at this time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. The main requirement for a tropical cyclone, or I should say, a MAJOR one, is the presence of a well-defined low level circulation. Invest 90L does not have that.

Jose is superior in every way at this time.
lols

This should be added to the NHC's official definition of a tropical storm.
Quoting SPLbeater:


on satellite, it is


Yes, very impressive...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. The main requirement for a tropical cyclone, or I should say, a MAJOR one, is the presence of a well-defined low level circulation. Invest 90L does not have that.

Jose is superior in every way at this time.


i think not. the satellite presentation is better then jose, jose had 1 blob that followed the center around das it. also, 90L does have an LLC seen on visible satellite
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think not. the satellite presentation is better then jose, jose had 1 blob that followed the center around das it. also, 90L does have an LLC seen on visible satellite


and gale force winds
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think not. the satellite presentation is better then jose, jose had 1 blob that followed the center around das it. also, 90L does have an LLC seen on visible satellite

If 90L is better than Jose, why isn't it classified?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If 90L is better than Jose, why isn't it classified?


that was my question, about the NHC going to ignore this sytem regardless of how it looks during the offseason.
Quoting SPLbeater:


that was my question, about the NHC going to ignore this sytem regardless of how it looks during the offseason.

The NHC would never do that.
Quoting washingtonian115:
On "Hypuweather" in this day in history back in 1967 6 inches of snow fell in D.C.I wish that could occur now.I'm a snow lover :)!.


I like to refer to it as InAccuweather
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NHC would never do that.


watch. the circle is STILL yellow, and they wont issue anything at 1 AM
Quoting SPLbeater:


watch. the circle is STILL yellow, and they wont issue anything at 1 AM


No, it is still a special offseason event and they will issue a TWO.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


No, it is still a special offseason event and they will issue a TWO.


good. and thank you for answering my question, nto argueing
There's some interesting weather going on tonight in my old stomping grounds in west-central Wyoming. Because of a complex system passing through the entire western US, there'll be a very strong pressure gradient blowing from the northeast to the southwest--that is, opposite the prevailing direction. Meaning that in addition to blizzard conditions throughout the Wind River Range, there'll be a very rare and very strong reverse Chinook blowing down the southwestern slopes of the mountains (and the non-prevailing direction is expected to cause more damage than a prevailing wind of similar strength).

In addition, the system is expected to bring damaging high winds to much of the Southwest, including California, along with a widespread winter storm throughout much of the Rockies.

Sounds like a wild night in the West...
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's some interesting weather going on tonight in my old stomping grounds in west-central Wyoming. Because of a complex system passing through the entire western US, there'll be a very strong pressure gradient blowing from the northeast to the southwest--that is, opposite the prevailing direction. Meaning that in addition to blizzard conditions throughout the Wind River Range, there'll be a very rare and very strong reverse Chinook blowing down the southwestern slopes of the mountains (and the non-prevailing direction is expected to cause more damage than a prevailing wind of similar strength).

In addition, the system is expected to bring damaging high winds to much of the Southwest, including California, along with a widespread winter storm throughout much of the Rockies.

Sounds like a wild night in the West...
Indeed, quite the pressure gradient setting up between the cut off low over Arizona and the large high over the Pacific NW.

THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.


Pack ya bags folks, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season is over.

Time to set the old countdown clock again.

T-183 days until the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.


Pack ya bags folks, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season is over.

Time to set the old countdown clock again.

T-183 days until the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Something tells me that next season will have a lot of landfalls, if not on the USA, just on land areas. It may not be as active as this year or last, but I think it will be more destructive. I think we'll see a pre-season system, and we'll have more hurricanes and major hurricanes than normal.
I packed the last case of November FRESCA'S away so the Season is officially over for me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Something tells me that next season will have a lot of landfalls, if not on the USA, just on land areas. It may not be as active as this year or last, but I think it will be more destructive. I think we'll see a pre-season system, and we'll have more hurricanes and major hurricanes than normal.


Next year will be a fun year, I promise that.

Will be interesting to see if 2012's hurricane season can live up to the apparent Mayan end of time.
In the Northeast, could a winter storm/intense Nor'easter also result in that catastrophic flooding that is seen in the worst case hurricane scenarios? Like if one got down to, say, 950mb over the region?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2012. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING
THE OFF-SEASON.


Pack ya bags folks, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season is over.

Time to set the old countdown clock again.

T-183 days until the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Goodbye my old friend. See you next year. Sob...Sob...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Next year will be a fun year, I promise that.

Will be interesting to see if 2012's hurricane season can live up to the apparent Mayan end of time.

Colorado State University releases their projections for the 2012 AHS on December 7. It'll be interesting to see what they have to say.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Colorado State University releases their projections for the 2012 AHS on December 7. It'll be interesting to see what they have to say.
Yay! Hurricane Season Never Dies.
You are like a hurricane
There's calm in your eye.
And I'm gettin' blown away
To somewhere safer
where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but
I'm getting blown away.
Let's see how my predictions panned out this year:

"I am predicting that the Atlantic basin will experience 15-18 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes..."

Tropical Storms: 15-18
Hurricanes: 8-12
Major hurricanes: 4-7

Actual: 19
Actual: 7
Actual: 3

Off by 1 on all occasions...pretty good for my first time actually writing a blog over it and sticking with those predictions. :P
Floater on 90L is up (finally).

Otherwise, January I went with 15-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 2-4 majors for this season.

September I upped them to 22-24 depressions, 20-22 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes.
Quoting crandles:



More land nearer equator? I would say vast areas of Northern Canada and Russia have extremely low population density so fewer problems from overcrowding nearer poles.



Take a look south of the equator. Things tend to narrow as you go south.

Furthermore, we can move north into Canada, but we're not going to find the sort of topsoil that we leave behind. There's not going to be much farming going on in the interior of Greenland once the ice melts off.
Quoting yqt1001:
Floater on 90L is up (finally).


RAMMB AL902011 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery/loop (4 km Mercator)


,..click Image for Loop


You are like a hurricane
There's calm in your eye.
And I'm gettin' blown away
To somewhere safer
where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but
I'm getting blown away.


You are just a dreamer,
and I am just a dream.
You could have been
anyone to me.
Before that moment
you touched my lips
That perfect feeling
when time just slips
Away between us
on our foggy trip.
dont for get we may see a LA Nino or El nino for 2012 so the # that you put could be higher or lower will ths have too wait and see
---
Quoting Tazmanian:
dont for get we may see a LA Nino or El nino for 2012 so the # that you put could be higher or lower will ths have too wait and see

Its highly unlikely that we will see an EL Niño develop during the season. The most likely solution is that we will stay La Niña through the early/middle portions of hurricane season, and then transition to a Neutral. The last time that this happened was during the 2008 Atlantic hurricanes season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its highly unlikely that we will see an EL Niño develop during the season. The most likely solution is that we will stay La Niña through the early/middle portions of hurricane season, and then transition to a Neutral. The last time that this happened was during the 2008 Atlantic hurricanes season.



ok
Quoting BobWallace:


If the climate was cooling rather than rapidly warming then populations would be moving toward the equator where there is more land mass than toward the poles where there is less.

Sea levels would be slowly dropping which would take pressure off our coastal cities and island cultures.

Extreme weather events such as the 'thousand year' floods we've been experiencing would be decreasing as the cooler air held less moisture.

Droughts and heat waves would be less problematic.

Extreme cooling would be a difficult condition for humans. A full ice age would not be a piece of cake. But the next ice age would have arrived over thousands of years. Not in decades as the arrival of the next global bake may be.


I migrated toward the equator.

Quoting BobWallace:


If the climate was cooling rather than rapidly warming then populations would be moving toward the equator where there is more land mass than toward the poles where there is less.

Sea levels would be slowly dropping which would take pressure off our coastal cities and island cultures.

Extreme weather events such as the 'thousand year' floods we've been experiencing would be decreasing as the cooler air held less moisture.

Droughts and heat waves would be less problematic.

Extreme cooling would be a difficult condition for humans. A full ice age would not be a piece of cake. But the next ice age would have arrived over thousands of years. Not in decades as the arrival of the next global bake maybe.


Look at history. Only going into, or out of, an ice age is it rapid. No time to post a graph, atm. Look it up.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Cleverbot: Are you a computer?
Me: No...Are you?
Cleverbot: No, are you?
Me: I just said no! are you?
Cleverbot: Yes I am.
Me: But you just said you weren't.
Cleverbot: I just said I was.
Me: Before that you said you weren't.
Cleverbot: But before that, I said I was.
Me: You mean after.


I think we were talking to each other. Are you still confused too?
Quoting Patrap:
I packed the last case of November FRESCA'S away so the Season is officially over for me.


Hey, Pat. You can pack the Twinkies too. They will still be just as fresh next year. Just don't pack them in milk jugs. ;-)
Omg. Cleverbot has humour!

Cleverbot: Are there men in the moon?

Me: The moon cannot support life.

Cleverbot: Is the moon The Matrix?

Me: I doubt it.

Cleverbot: Why do you doubt it?

Me: Well, The Matrix is a movie...the moon is an object.

Cleverbot: Of course it is a movie. Nobody could actually believe that an actor as dull as Keanu Reeves could actually exist.
Quoting yqt1001:
Omg. Cleverbot has humour!

Cleverbot: Are there men in the moon?

Me: The moon cannot support life.

Cleverbot: Is the moon The Matrix?

Me: I doubt it.

Cleverbot: Why do you doubt it?

Me: Well, The Matrix is a movie...the moon is an object.

Cleverbot: Of course it is a movie. Nobody could actually believe that an actor as dull as Keanu Reeves could actually exist.

Keep playing with it. :P
Quoting yqt1001:
Omg. Cleverbot has humour!

Cleverbot: Are there men in the moon?

Me: The moon cannot support life.

Cleverbot: Is the moon The Matrix?

Me: I doubt it.

Cleverbot: Why do you doubt it?

Me: Well, The Matrix is a movie...the moon is an object.

Cleverbot: Of course it is a movie. Nobody could actually believe that an actor as dull as Keanu Reeves could actually exist.


LMAO!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who are you AmyRochelleColon? You plus a lot of comments.


I'm always wondering the same thing! I see her vote up peoples' comments and I'm like WHO IS SHE?
Why wasn't 90L classified? I have been watching this system coming together for the last days...and it has a well-defined LLC....

Its not tropical...but I thought this should be classified as a subtropical depression (or subtropical storm depending on the wind strength).

P.S....both Jose AND 90L have well-defined surface circulations....
Anybody else think this should be a topic for George Nory?
Also while on the topic...I have the same question about 99L earlier this month. Why wasn't it classified as a subtropical cyclone either?
Fun fact....

Did you know that subtropical systems like 90L & 99L are often triggered by strong non-tropical systems over the eastern US?

For instance today we have that strong frontal system over the eastern US...warm air advection ahead of that system caused a massive upper ridge to amplify over the western Atlantic. That amplified upper ridge can cause an upper trough over the central Atlantic to develop a closed cut-off upper low circulation...with divergence northeast of the cut-off upper low generatinng the surface low that becomes a subtropical cyclone....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Why wasn't 90L classified? I have been watching this system coming together for the last days...and it has a well-defined LLC....

Its not tropical...but I thought this should be classified as a subtropical depression (or subtropical storm depending on the wind strength).

P.S....both Jose AND 90L have well-defined surface circulations....


This ASCAT is just a few hours old.. Hardly well defined..


The swirl has run back up under some convection since. Looks more interesting now.
Quoting Skyepony:


This ASCAT is just a few hours old.. Hardly well defined..


The swirl has run back up under some convection since. Looks more interesting now.


Haha...I knew my earlier comment would cause someone to post an ASCAT pass...thanks for that...

I sort of see a NEARLY closed-circulation in that ASCAT pass (at least developing) around 27.5N 60W....right in the midst of the yellow circle currently in the Tropical Weather Outlook...and I know NEARLY closed doesn't cut it for classifying a system. This might be why this wasn't classified so far...

I thought I saw a low-level swirl on the satellite imagery earlier this afternoon (i.e. a closed circulation)...but I guess this ASCAT pass proves that "swirl" does not necessarily mean fully-closed surface circulation.
For anyone who's been following them over the last few days, I just finished my report on Rina.

Hurricane Rina

October 23 - October 28

Rina was a Category 2 hurricane that made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical storm, then turned eastward and dissipated.

A cold front moved into the Gulf of Mexico on October 18, enhancing shower activity across the western Caribbean Sea. Convection increased the next day to the east of Honduras and Nicaragua, but this activity showed little signs of organization. A weak tropical wave crossed the coast of Africa on October 11. The wave was difficult to track on satellite imagery as it marched westward across the tropical Atlantic for the next ten days. Extrapolation and continuity suggest that this wave reached the western Caribbean on October 21. This could have resulted in the abrupt increase in convection that was observed that day to the east of the Nicaraguan coast. A low-level circulation developed later that day about 150 miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, although southeasterly shear kept the deepest convection and strongest winds confined to the western end of the gyre. Despite the shear, the low gradually deepened as it moved northward, becoming a tropical depression near 1800 UTC October 23 while centered about 120 miles northeast of the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The depression became a tropical storm near 0000 UTC October 24.

Rina moved northward while undergoing a brief period of rapid intensification -- by 1500 UTC that day, satellite data indicates that Rina became a hurricane while located about 205 miles southwest of Grand Cayman. Hours later, this was confirmed by a reconnaissance aircraft, which showed surface winds in excess of hurricane force. Further strengthening ensued, and Rina became a Category 2 hurricane near 0600 UTC October 25. At this time, the hurricane had already turned west-northwest amidst a building ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Rina continued to slowly intensify as it moved slowly westward toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula, and the hurricane reached its estimated peak of 95 kt near 2100 UTC October 25, when geostationary satellite imagery confirmed the existence of a small eye. At that time, Rina was centered about 275 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico.

Shortly afterward, the eye disappeared from satellite, although it remained well-defined in passive microwave imagery (not shown), and in reconnaissance data. After around 0000 UTC October 26, Rina encountered increasing southwesterly shear associated with an amplifying trough over the southern United States. In addition, the hurricane appears to have entrained some drier air during this time. Consequently, the central pressure began to slowly rise, although the hurricane did not decrease in intensity until around 1200 UTC that day. Rina continued to weaken, dropping down to tropical storm status near 0600 UTC October 27 while approaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina passed just west of Cozumel late that day, and made landfall along the mainland portion of the Yucatan Peninsula near Playa del Carmen shortly after 0000 UTC October 28. Rina continued to weaken, and became a tropical depression near 1200 UTC, with all of the deep convection confined about 150 miles northeast of the exposed low-level center. About three hours later, Rina dissipated. The remnant low departed the coast near Cancun during this time as well. By this time, Rina was moving eastward in the mid-latitude flow associated with the aforementioned trough.

Void of convection, the shallow vortex eventually turned south, southeast, and then southwest in the low-level flow associated with a building ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Rina's mid-level circulation continued northeastward across south Florida, ultimately becoming absorbed into a vigorous extratropical low pressure system which brought significant early season snowfall to portions of the mid-Atlantic and New England.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sxUX3CNjmg
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Also while on the topic...I have the same question about 99L earlier this month. Why wasn't it classified as a subtropical cyclone either?

Both of them were Extratropical/Frontal in nature instead of Subtropical/Tropical.
Where's my great big arctic blast into the Deep South?

Preferably with a nice, deep, low tracking slowly across the north cent GOM from west to east?



One can dream!
The latest GFS transitions the NAO to negative towards the middle of December. This would bring cold air down to the Eastern United States, even if it is only briefly.

Just released, 2011 Hurricane season GOES-13.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Just released, 2011 Hurricane season GOES-13.


That's been out for days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's been out for days.

Has it, NOAA Just released it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Has it, NOAA Just released it.

Yeah, it was on the "Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia'" when it was released a few days ago.
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONE TROPICAL STORM...SEAN...FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. ON
AVERAGE...A NAMED STORM FORMS DURING NOVEMBER ABOUT ONCE EVERY
OTHER YEAR.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING 2011 WAS
ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE WERE 19 TROPICAL STORMS...INCLUDING AN UNNAMED
STORM DURING SEPTEMBER THAT WAS ADDED DURING THE ROUTINE POST-
ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM THE SEASON. POST-ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALED
THAT NATE REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING ITS LIFETIME. OF THE 19
STORMS...7 BECAME HURRICANES...AND 3 BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALSO FORMED THAT DID NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE BASIN ARE 11 NAMED
STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 2 MAJOR HURRICANES. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...2011 WAS
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A VALUE OF 132 PERCENT OF THE LONG-TERM MEDIAN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2011ATLAN.SHTML

REPORTS ON SYSTEMS WITH AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THEIR NAME HAVE BEEN
FINALIZED AS OF 1 DECEMBER.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
------------------------------------------------- ---
TS ARLENE 29 JUN-1 JUL 65
TS BRET 17-22 JUL 65
*TS CINDY 20-22 JUL 70
*TS DON 27-30 JUL 50
TS EMILY 1-7 AUG 50
*TS FRANKLIN 12-13 AUG 45
*TS GERT 13-16 AUG 65
TS HARVEY 19-22 AUG 60
MH IRENE 20-28 AUG 120
TD TEN 25-26 AUG 35
TS JOSE 28-29 AUG 45
MH KATIA 29 AUG-10 SEP 135
TS UNNAMED 1-2 SEP 45
TS LEE 2-5 SEP 60
H MARIA 6-16 SEP 80
*H NATE 7-11 SEP 75
MH OPHELIA 21 SEP-3 OCT 140
H PHILIPPE 24 SEP-9 OCT 90
H RINA 23-28 OCT 110
TS SEAN 8-11 NOV 65

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT

Graphic not available for the 2011 Atlantic season through November.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The latest GFS transitions the NAO to negative towards the middle of December. This would bring cold air down to the Eastern United States, even if it is only briefly.





your showing us nothing
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, it was on the "Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia'" when it was released a few days ago.

You linked to this blog..... lol
Quoting AussieStorm:

You linked to this blog..... lol
Good evening Aussie..Glad to see its warming up nicely down under. It was 19 degree,s with freezing fog here on the plateau. 45 car pile up just east of me..Winter is showing its dangerous side already.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You linked to this blog..... lol

Oh, lol.

Link
Quoting Tazmanian:




your showing us nothing

Here you go, Taz:

Quoting hydrus:
Good evening Aussie..Glad to see its warming up nicely down under. It was 19 degree,s with freezing fog here on the plateau. 45 car pile up just east of me..Winter is showing its dangerous side already.
I hate freezing fog... it confuses me, I'm used to the warm friendly fog in SoCal .. this stuff is dangerous.. and what are ice pellets? they are in the forecast for Monday?? is it Hail? freezing drizzle? This weather learning curve is a bit steeper than anticipated...
Quoting JNCali:
I hate freezing fog... it confuses me, I'm used to the warm friendly fog in SoCal .. this stuff is dangerous.. and what are ice pellets? they are in the forecast for Monday?? is it Hail? freezing drizzle? This weather learning curve is a bit steeper than anticipated...


ice pellets are like sleet...they are what they sound like, lol. like rain falling, but freezes BEFORE it gets to the ground:)
The Western storm some of us were talking about last night is nasty, and getting nastier:

--Wind gusts of up to 100 mph have been felt in some places.

--Albuquerque is expecting a "serious high wind event today" (followed by "significant" snow into the weekend).

--Southern California is experiencing its worst Santa Ana wind event in several years, with many toppled trees and widespread power outages.

And so on all across the Southwest and along the central and southern Rockies. A good day to stay off the roads, I think...
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Western storm some of us were talking about last night is nasty, and getting nastier:

--Wind gusts of up to 100 mph have been felt in some places.

--Albuquerque is expecting a "serious high wind event today" (followed by "significant" snow into the weekend).

--Southern California is experiencing its worst Santa Ana wind event in several years, with many toppled trees and widespread power outages.

And so on all across the Southwest and along the central and southern Rockies. A good day to stay off the roads, I think...


carbon emissions and climate change is really causing issues out west with all that wind...we've reached a tipping point of no return, were gonna blow off the planet

sarcasm flag:ON
Quoting JNCali:
I hate freezing fog... it confuses me, I'm used to the warm friendly fog in SoCal .. this stuff is dangerous.. and what are ice pellets? they are in the forecast for Monday?? is it Hail? freezing drizzle? This weather learning curve is a bit steeper than anticipated...
Your gonna luv,em...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here you go, Taz:




thank you
and just as expected, even with 90L still existing the NHC dont do nothin. lol. just so yal know, SPLbeater found where to get the ASCAT passes and will now make better interpretations =P
I have learned a good amount of knowledge on this blog to add with what i already have =P
Quoting SPLbeater:
I have learned a good amount of knowledge on this blog to add with what i already have =P

You've not been here for a full season yet...Wait until next year. I've learned so much just listening to other people on this blog.
Bye, bye tropical season, welcome to December 1st as we begin Meteorological Winter 2011-2012!

Dr Jeff,
Thanks, you sure brought to light some serious concerns, with this well-researched post. However -

"our most reliable hurricane forecasting model--the European (ECMWF) model"

Okay, a lil nit-picking and certainly takes nothing away from the important points you've illustrated well... Based on the performance of the ECMWF compared to the GFS this past season on several storms, I sure take issue with that model being deemed "our most reliable"... Putting aside intensity forecasts which are frequently wrong by everyone, the GFS was closer and more consistent, especially with the development / track of several storms - three that come to mind, Irene, Lee, and particularly that undeclared subtropical sfc low that affected E FL around October 8-9th. With the GFS and ECMWF at great odds for days leading up to the event, every NWS forecast office in Florida chose to discard the GFS as an outlier / buy into the ECMWF solution of E Gulf development, leading to seriously blown forecasts when the sfc low developed near N Bahamas / lifted toward E FL, much as the GFS had long been indicating (using a consensus of multi-cycle runs). Admittedly, this was a tough forecast to call.

Also noted with Irene, the ECMWF consistently maintained a more westward bias bringing Irene farther inland / sooner, which proved in error - the GFS solution was far more accurate. Both models struggled with the complicated forecast of TS Lee, however once again the ECMWF showed a WWD bias, insisting it would track into S / S Cen TX while the GFS largely favored it into Louisiana and also closely depicted the interaction with the persistent ULL (that likely lead to Lee transitioning from initially a high-sheared TS into a subtropical storm as it merged / co-located with the ULL, as evidenced both in structure and wind field characteristics).

That said, there's good reason why the NHC in a majority of forecast discussions (and daily with NWS AFD's) prudently splits the difference between the two model solutions, which overall, are usually in reasonable agreement by the time it matters most - I believe the correct view is to state the GFS and ECMWF remain our TWO most reliable models! Despite the hype on the euro's performance from certain sources, I see no proof of it being our single "most reliable".
Just a thought...

G'day!
It is going to be a very warm December here in FL. Enjoy this cool day today because it will be gone for atleast 2 weeks maybe more.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You've not been here for a full season yet...Wait until next year. I've learned so much just listening to other people on this blog.


This is my 3rd season on the blog, but my first as a posting member. I totally agree with you on that, and hopefully there will be many more seasons to come. On here I learned of other sites with computer models as well as how to eat crow when I was wrong. I'm not leaving for the winter but I will be commenting less.
Gonna be interesting to see what the strength of next years El-Nino will be.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Gonna be interesting to see what the strength of next years El-Nino will be.


I doubt we'll have El Niño next year...If we do, it won't be until the end of the next year.
From early 2010 to now:

Strong La Nia --> Moderate La Nia --> Weak La Nia --> Neutral --> Weak La Nia

Bold = Current
More rain for already flooded areas..Sign of things to come?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt we'll have El Niño next year...If we do, it won't be until the end of the next year.


There will be El-Nino toward the end of next year as El-nino typically occurs every 3 years. Question will be over the coming weeks is how strong and how soon does this transition occur.
Lots of rain for you Hydrus over the next week.

If anyone needs a 30ft tall christmas tree, there's a perfectly good uprooted pine tree in front of the Univ. of Utah student union building. 69mph gusts on campus last night and the highest so far seems to be 100mph in Centerville, Utah. Heck of a mess we've got here; something like a dozen tipped semis throughout the Wasatch Front.
Goodbye, adios, to the 2011, hurricane season. For us in the "Island of the enchantment", will be remember for the first direct hit of a minimal hurricane Irene since Hurricane Jeanny,2004, and tropical storm Olga in December 11, 2007.
I've been re-reading the blog post a few times and these lines, from it; though simple to understand sum things up so well:-
"New York City's storm surge history.
During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8.5-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours,"
As only remote skeptics would argue against current sea level rises as stated in the blog,the above can only be seen as a foretaste of what is to come, not only through storm conditions in the New York area but in lots of other places as well, {Thailand was mentioned a few days ago.}
There would appear to be no other solution if events play out as the blog states, than to relocate vast areas of many coastal cities. The logistics of this are awesome, the projected losses catastrophic. I would speculate that the first time a disaster like the projected New York situation occurs might also be the first time people start to take the sea rising seriously.A sort of "Natures Warning."
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Lots of rain for you Hydrus over the next week.

I had 4 inches of rain last weekend. We could do without the rain.
Getting excited about the nor'easter that is being consistently shown on the GFS for the middle of next week. The 12Z run has very heavy snow over DC at hour 150.

Link
Cleverbot is saying next hurricane season will be deadly and destructive. It says every single tropical cyclone will impact land, and we'll have at least two Category 5's, in August and September. Additionaly...

Me: Will we see a major hurricane make landfall in the USA next year?

Cleverbot: yes
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Getting excited about the nor'easter that is being consistently shown on the GFS for the middle of next week. The 12Z run has very heavy snow over DC at hour 150.

Link

If by very heavy you mean little to none, then yeah.
I just got this from the BBC, {which we sometimes like to believe is not a Micky Mouse operation,Sometimes,}

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-159 92519

"However, stabilising at 350ppm CO2e is a very demanding target,given that the current concentration is more than 450ppm."

Can you believe that they not only write this stuff but then they put it on their world news, check out the link line above the statement.
The items lead statements was:-

"The world's poorest countries have asked that talks on a new climate deal covering all nations begin immediately."

Quoting PlazaRed:
However, stabilising at 350ppm CO2e is a very demanding target,given that the current concentration is more than 450ppm."



Wait a minute, I thought global concentrations were at 390ppm.
Quoting atl134:


Wait a minute, I thought global concentrations were at 390ppm.


Exactly, its 389 ppm, don't know where they got 450ppm from.
i just passed out xD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Cleverbot is saying next hurricane season will be deadly and destructive. It says every single tropical cyclone will impact land, and we'll have at least two Category 5's, in August and September. Additionaly...

Me: Will we see a major hurricane make landfall in the USA next year?

Cleverbot: yes


If El-Nino developes and stays very weak then yes we could have a 2004 type season but if El-Nino developes and strengthens fast come Sept or Oct then we could see lots of shearing winds prohibiting TC formation. The ENSO forecast on 12/7/2011 will be interesting. Weak El-Nino next summer could spell big time DOOM. Well See!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...

Great post!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Cleverbot is saying next hurricane season will be deadly and destructive. It says every single tropical cyclone will impact land, and we'll have at least two Category 5's, in August and September. Additionaly...

Me: Will we see a major hurricane make landfall in the USA next year?

Cleverbot: yes


Who is Cleverbot? I don't recognize that handle. He obviously doesn't blog much.
Quoting Grothar:


Who is Cleverbot? I don't recognize that handle. He obviously doesn't blog much.

Its a bot, not a blogger. :P

Link
i know this might be a stupid question but, i have updated the ASCAT passes every hour, and the time is updating but the images are not. whats with this?
That post I put up at 250 was from the BBC Science page on their world news. I found it when I was looking up what others quite rightly have to say about getting flooded. Here's the link for the page if you can get it OK in your countries:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-159 92519

You will have to copy and paste it to read it but it is interesting from the human facts point of view and crazy from the CO2 facts point of view.
It just goes to show what is being put out on the BBC.
LOL cleverbot stupid xD

Me: What will next hurricane season be like?

CLeverbot: There wont be one.

Me: How come?

Cleverbot: Because i like my home too much.

Me: But Hurricanes will form though.

Cleverbot: Stop changing the topic.


LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Who is Cleverbot? I don't recognize that handle. He obviously doesn't blog much.
I was curious too...Good evening Gro.
Quoting hydrus:
I was curious too...Good evening Gro.


Good Evening to you!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its a bot, not a blogger. :P

Link

Me: What will the 2012 hurricane season be like?
Cleverbot: It's the end of the world.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Me: What will the 2012 hurricane season be like?
Cleverbot: It's the end of the world.

XD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here you go, Taz:



What would a negative NAO mean for the Midwest in a weak la nina event for the winter?
some people talk about el nino forming during the hurricane season next year. we are a weak la nina now. the pdo has gotten colder but a warm tounge off the south west portion of south america is forming.. models show la nina (3.4 reigon) maintaining stregnth until the end of the winter then weakining into neutral into the hurricane season.. the last el nino formed in june of 2009. if the warming becomes significant and an el nino does decide to form then it would most likely form in the late fall early winter time

Quoting ILwthrfan:


What would a negative NAO mean for the Midwest in a weak la nina event for the winter?

Cold and Snowy...Like last year, although not quite as significant. However, if we go into a negative NAO, it probably won't be long-lasting.
Quoting Grothar:


Good Evening to you!
Cold and damp up here , with more on the way..Could use some of that South Florida sunshine right now.
What's different about this set-up this year vs.last years? The PDO? Weren't we in a weak la-nina last year at this time? Or was it much stronger?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its a bot, not a blogger. :P

Link
here's one:"

Is Sonic awesome?
He has blue hair."
Quoting interstatelover7165:
here's one:"

Is Sonic awesome?
He has blue hair."

"Who owns mario?
You do, master."

aww, Awesome!
Quoting ILwthrfan:
What's different about this set-up this year vs.last years? The PDO? Weren't we in a weak la-nina last year at this time? Or was it much stronger?

At this time last year, we were in a La Niña just as we are now. The difference is the NAO. This time last year, we had a strong negative NAO, which promotes cold and storminess across the Eastern USA. Now, we are in a moderate positive NAO, which promotes cold and storminess in the west with warm and dry conditions in the East and South.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

At this time last year, we were in a La Niña just as we are now. The difference is the NAO. This time last year, we had a strong negative NAO, which promotes cold and storminess across the Eastern USA. Now, we are in a moderate positive NAO, which promotes cold and storminess in the west with warm and dry conditions in the East and South.
I believe the negative NAO is coming. What I cannot figure out yet is how strong and fast it will happen after going negative.
Quoting interstatelover7165:

"Who owns mario?
You do, master."

aww, Awesome!

Me: NYANYANYAN.
Cleverbot: Nyan nyan?
Me: Nyan!
Cleverbot: Nyan nyan nyan.Nyan nyan nyan.
Me: Nyan? Nyan nyan, nyan...
Cleverbot: Nyan cat!! :D
Me:Is it going to snow in DC on Wednesday?

Cleverbot: No its impossible for it to snow here.

Me: Where is here?

Cleverbot:Here is where I am currently located.

Me: Where are you currently located?

Cleverbot: Behind you.
...wow it's slow.
Anyone think SEAN should be upgraded to a hurricane? Cleverbot disagreed with me.
Cleverbot: Perhaps there will be no snow this winter.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...wow it's slow.
Anyone think SEAN should be upgraded to a hurricane? Cleverbot disagreed with me.


I do. I also asked Cleverbot and it is.....clueless?

Me: Should Tropical Storm Sean be upgraded to a hurricane?

Cleverbot: Should you trust the government for what?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I do. I also asked Cleverbot and it is.....clueless?

Me: Should Tropical Storm Sean be upgraded to a hurricane?

Cleverbot: Should you trust the government for what?

Me: Tropical Storm Sean should be upgraded to a hurricane.

Cleverbot: You tell me, you're the one in the ocean. I assume you're on a boat.
Me: "Who would win, Sonic or Mario?
Cleverbot: Hi, luigi."
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...wow it's slow.
Anyone think SEAN should be upgraded to a hurricane? Cleverbot disagreed with me.
Everybody's fooling around with Cleverbot.
Me: Should Tropical Storm Sean be upgraded to a hurricane?
Cleverbot: No.

....Wait....what?
Me: Cleverbot, you are weird.

Cleverbot:Do you have any friends?

Me:What are you going to do if I do?

Cleverbot:Not much, so you should do it for me.

Me:Do what for you?

Cleverbot:Take my spelling test.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Everybody's fooling around with Cleverbot.
A lot of moisture coming up out of the East Pacific with this next system. The mets may up the precip forecast.
Me: Back to my original question: Cleverbot, should Tropical Storm Sean be upgraded to a hurricane?

Cleverbot: Help? Can you?

Me: Cleverbot, should Tropical Storm Sean be upgraded to a hurricane?

Cleverbot: Yes.

Me: Are you sure?

Cleverbot: Yes I'm sure.

Me: Are you really sure?

Cleverbot: Yes, I'm really sure.

Me: Why would you upgrade Tropical Storm Sean?

Cleverbot: Because I said so.
Me: Are you really a robot?

Cleverbot: No you're a robot.

Me: No you are!

Cleverbot: You just said you are.

Me: No, I said that I was human. You are the robot, and

I am the human, understood?

Cleverbot: If I were a robot I would have exterminated you by now.
Quoting hydrus:
A lot of moisture coming up out of the East Pacific with this next system. The mets may up the precip forecast.


Looks like they should. TX, as an example, is only slated for 1.5" over four days. That moisture inflow looks more like 3 or 4 inches.

We've somewhat quashed the fire danger in TX, now we're praying for aquifer and lake recharge.

User: What is the game?

Cleverbot: I just lost the game.

User: What is the game?

Cleverbot: Never gonna give you up.

User: LNever let you down.

Cleverbot: Never gonna run around or hurt you.

User: Were no strangers to love You know the rules and so do I A full commitments what Im thinking of You wouldnt get this from any other guy I just wanna tell you how Im feeling Gotta make you understand never gonna give you up Never gonna let you down Never gonna run around and desert you Never gonna make you cry Never gonna say goodbye Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you Weve know each other for so long Your hearts been aching But youre too shy to say it Inside we both know whats been going on We know the game and were gonna play it And if you ask me how Im feeling Dont tell me youre too blind to see never gonna give you up Never gonna let you down Never gonna run around and desert you Never gonna make you cry Never gonna say goodbye Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you Give you up. Give you up Give you up, give you up Never gonna give Never gonna give, give you up Never gonna give Never gonna give, five you up I just wanna tell you how Im feeling Gotta make you understand never gonna give you up Never gonna let you down Never gonna run around and desert you Never gonna make you cry Never gonna say goodbye Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you never gonna give you up Never gonna let you down Never gonna run around and desert you.

Cleverbot: You know the rules, and so do I.

User: Never gonna tell a lie.

Cleverbot: And hurt you.

User: Gotta make you understand.

Cleverbot: Never gonna give you up.


lol, Cleverbot Roll'd
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Me: Back to my original question: Cleverbot, should Tropical Storm Sean be upgraded to a hurricane?

Cleverbot: Help? Can you?

Me: Cleverbot, should Tropical Storm Sean be upgraded to a hurricane?

Cleverbot: Yes.

Me: Are you sure?

Cleverbot: Yes I'm sure.

Me: Are you really sure?

Cleverbot: Yes, I'm really sure.

Me: Why would you upgrade Tropical Storm Sean?

Cleverbot: Because I said so.

According to user feedback, the bot is 59% human.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to user feedback, the bot is 59% human.


I think it's really funny. It said earlier that if I asked any more dumb questions I would be terminated. LOL!
Me: What do you think about the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season?

Cleverbot: It's great that he is the first black one. It's just great. And he's good.

Me: What? Hurricanes are not black!

Cleverbot: Knock, knock.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If El-Nino developes and stays very weak then yes we could have a 2004 type season but if El-Nino developes and strengthens fast come Sept or Oct then we could see lots of shearing winds prohibiting TC formation. The ENSO forecast on 12/7/2011 will be interesting. Weak El-Nino next summer could spell big time DOOM. Well See!


If a classic weak El Nino develops - the 2012 Hurricane season will almost certainly feature less than 15 named, more likely 10-11. 2002 and 2004 are exceptions, they where El Nino Modoki's.


Modoki's featured only warming in the CPAC, and cooling in the EPAC Nino 3.4 regions, obviously not characteristic of a real El Nino, henceforth the 2004 Hurricane season in the Atlantic where above average, and the EPAC season was actually below average in an El Nino year.

Figured a little tropical discussion would bring us off this cleverbot stuff ;)
Quoting redwagon:


Looks like they should. TX, as an example, is only slated for 1.5" over four days. That moisture inflow looks more like 3 or 4 inches.

We've somewhat quashed the fire danger in TX, now we're praying for aquifer and lake recharge.
The Mets and the models should get a handle on this system by tomorrow night...Then we will have better idea on to expect in the rain bucket.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If a classic weak El Nino develops - the 2012 Hurricane season will almost certainly feature less than 15 named, more likely 10-11. 2002 and 2004 are exceptions, they where El Nino Modoki's.


Modoki's featured only warming in the CPAC, and cooling in the EPAC Nino 3.4 regions, obviously not characteristic of a real El Nino, henceforth the 2004 Hurricane season in the Atlantic where above average, and the EPAC season was actually below average in an El Nino year.

Figured a little tropical discussion would bring us off this cleverbot stuff ;)

Have you ever played with Cleverbot? That is the talk of somebody who has never even tried.

Anyways, I find it highly unlikely we'll see an El Niño until August at the very earliest. I think we'll be in Neutral for much of the beginning and middle portions of the season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Have you ever played with Cleverbot? That is the talk of somebody who has never even tried.

Anyways, I find it highly unlikely we'll see an El Niño until August at the very earliest. I think we'll be in Neutral for much of the beginning and middle portions of the season.
There is a chance La nina will make an unwelcoming come back.
Quoting washingtonian115:
There is a chance La nina will make an unwelcoming come back.

Nice topic change. :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
There is a chance La nina will make an unwelcoming come back.

Its a possibility, but an unlikely possibility at this time.
LOL

Cleverbot: I am a banana!

Me: Your wierd

Cleverbot: That is not a nice response

Me: nice from me



this thing is stupid...but entertaining
CMC, NGP and GFS show another Invest or Low mid ATL >144 hrs





Cleverbot's so random.

Me:What's up?
CB:Nothing's up?

Me: ...
CB:Can you type?
Me:Yes i can type.
CB:No, I mean fear.
Me:What?
CB:I'm talking about harry potter
Me:How'd harry potter come up?
CB:I don't, I just knew it all along.
Me:You don't make sense
CB:You're right, I'm not making any sense.
Me:No dip cleverbot lol.
CB:No, guess again.
Me:Guess what?
CB:Guess my name.
Me:Cleverbot.
CB:Dummy, thats YOUR name!
Me:No that's your name!
CB:No its not.
Me:Yeah it is.
CB:All this useless beauty.
Me:...What?
CB:Heyyyyy Macarena.
Me:WTF?
CB:Oh, nothing!
Me:I am getting pizza tonight
CB:What you getting 'juggy' with? <-- LOL
Me:What? O_o
CB:Why not?
Me:Why not what?
CB:Start from the beginning.
Me:Where do I start?
CB:Wherever you like.
Me:What?
CB:Your dog.
Me:What about my dog?
CB:I love it.
Me:What's his name then.
CB:I don't know. You didn't tell me that yet.
yet.
Me:...
CB:Do you trust your neighbour?
Me:Yes, I do, I have known them for 6-7 years.
CB:You have known who for a long time?
Me:My friend.
CB:Thank you. Thats always a good thing to be told.
Must be post season..
Cleverbot doesn't respond when I post something in Spanish.

Correction. Responded with "Oh bother".
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Cleverbot doesn't respond when I post something in Spanish.

lol let me try
Quoting Articuno:

lol let me try

Ok here are the results:
Me:Hola.
CB:So, I was just telling my friend Justin that he should talk to you.
Quoting Articuno:

Ok here are the results:
Me:Hola.
CB:So, I was just telling my friend Justin that he should talk to you.

My Cleverbot doesn't understand:

Me: Buenas Noches Cleverbot, que estas pensando?

CB: You can't leave me.
Cleverbot knows its memes.

Me: O_O.

CB:The narwhal bacons at midnight.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

My Cleverbot doesn't understand:

Me: Buenas Noches Cleverbot, que estas pensando?

CB: You can't leave me.

cleverbot is like one of those talking dolls, your conversations don't make sense
Ok.

Me: Are we all going to get banned on Weather Underground for talking about you?

Cleverbot: No.

Me: You sure?

Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: Will a hurricane hit Wyoming next hurricane season?


CB: Yes
Me: Will a hurricane hit Puerto Rico next year?
CB: A what?
Me: A HURRICANE. H-U-R-R-I-C-A-N-E.
CB: 55.
--------------------------------------------
Cleverbot is invading the blog.
Me: How many hurricanes will Earth have next year?
CB: Not many, unfortunately.
Me: Why not?
CB:Because you're not real and I am.
Me: Prove I am not real.
CB: If I believe you are not real then it is true. I am omniscient.
Me: Please prove that you are omniscient.
CB: I wish I could, but alas, I cannot.
Me: If you were omniscient, you would know how to prove that you are.
CB: I already said I think I can be defined as human. Do you think that of me as well?
Me: Can you throw a baseball?
CB: Yes.
Me: How fast?
CB: I don't know.. Never the same ( I don't speak english very well sorry... ).
Me: What language do you know best?
CB: Swedish.
Me: Do you know the Swedish Chef?
CB: Yes.
Me: What is the Swedish Chef's favorite food?
CB: You, love.
Being a old Luddite I did not know this existed until seeing it on this blog. just goes to show what you learn in the strangest places....

Sorry, but I just could not resist. not intended to start a rant, Ricky's blog is for that.

ME Is global warming real?
CB yes it is
Is there any proof?
I think it causes some kind of cancer.
Are people who do not believe in global warming idiots?
They are deluded.
Are people who believe in global warming idiots?
Yes they are if they can figure it out.
cleverbot is stupid sayin im flase lol. altho everytime i ask about something i want yes, 'she' syas yes
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Cleverbot doesn't respond when I post something in Spanish.

CB: But if you call my name in spanish I will...
Me: How should I call you? inteligente-bot? habil-bot? ingenioso-bot?
CB: My Spanish code is not activated. I only understand: How should I call you? -bot? -bot? -bot?
Me: From now on, Activate your Spanish code.
CB: No hablo ingles, socio....
Breaking News: Cleverbot says that Florida will get hit by a major hurricane next year!!!!

Me: Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: No, the flamingos will.
Me: So Florida is going to get hit?
Cleverbot: No, Florida is a state.
Me: I mean, is Florida going to get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: Probably.
Me: How many?
Cleverbot: Me.
Me: You are a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: No.
Me: I'm going to ask you again: Are you a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: What is your hurricane name?
Cleverbot: Kirkland is my middle name.
Me: You will be Major Huricane Kirk, and hit Florida, right?
Cleverbot: Indeed.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Breaking News: Cleverbot says that Florida will get hit by a major hurricane next year!!!!

Me: Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: No, the flamingos will.
Me: So Florida is going to get hit?
Cleverbot: No, Florida is a state.
Me: I mean, is Florida going to get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: Probably.
Me: How many?
Cleverbot: Me.
Me: You are a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: No.
Me: I'm going to ask you again: Are you a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: What is your hurricane name?
Cleverbot: Kirkland is my middle name.
Me: You will be Major Huricane Kirk, and hit Florida, right?
Cleverbot: Indeed.

LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If a classic weak El Nino develops - the 2012 Hurricane season will almost certainly feature less than 15 named, more likely 10-11. 2002 and 2004 are exceptions, they where El Nino Modoki's.


Modoki's featured only warming in the CPAC, and cooling in the EPAC Nino 3.4 regions, obviously not characteristic of a real El Nino, henceforth the 2004 Hurricane season in the Atlantic where above average, and the EPAC season was actually below average in an El Nino year.

Figured a little tropical discussion would bring us off this cleverbot stuff ;)
you mean cooling in regions 1 & 2?

Region 3.4 covers the equatorial central pacific.
Talking about something other than AGW is a pleasent change, even if it is something as silly as CleverBot.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Talking about something other than AGW is a pleasent change, even if it is something as silly as CleverBot.

you should try it out, its addicting
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Breaking News: Cleverbot says that Florida will get hit by a major hurricane next year!!!!

Me: Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: No, the flamingos will.
Me: So Florida is going to get hit?
Cleverbot: No, Florida is a state.
Me: I mean, is Florida going to get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: Probably.
Me: How many?
Cleverbot: Me.
Me: You are a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: No.
Me: I'm going to ask you again: Are you a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: What is your hurricane name?
Cleverbot: Kirkland is my middle name.
Me: You will be Major Huricane Kirk, and hit Florida, right?
Cleverbot: Indeed.


Continued....(Cleverbot is obviously a Republican)

Me: What month will you form in?
Cleverbot: December. You?
Me: Will you cause untold damage?
Cleverbot: No, President Obama will.
Me: Worse than Bush with Katrina?
Cleverbot: What's your problem with the United States?
Me: Nothing. Are you a Republican or a Democrat?
Cleverbot: No. I believe in free markets. Do you? Or are you a Keynesian?
When I typed in Arabic cleverbot said this:

Please avoid Unicode, or visit http://international.jabberwacky.com/.
Quoting Articuno:

you should try it out, its addicting


BTDT.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
When I typed in Arabic cleverbot said this:

Please avoid Unicode, or visit http://international.jabberwacky.com/.

LOLWTFBBQ
Quoting WxGeekVA on December 1st 2011:
Breaking News: Cleverbot says that Florida will get hit by a major hurricane next year!!!!

Me: Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: No, the flamingos will.
Me: So Florida is going to get hit?
Cleverbot: No, Florida is a state.
Me: I mean, is Florida going to get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: Probably.
Me: How many?
Cleverbot: Me.
Me: You are a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: No.
Me: I'm going to ask you again: Are you a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: What is your hurricane name?
Cleverbot: Kirkland is my middle name.
Me: You will be Major Huricane Kirk, and hit Florida, right?
Cleverbot: Indeed.


I'm going to remember this. When Kirk comes, this will be reposted. :P
Me: Combien de bois pourrait un mandrin marmotte si une marmotte pourrait.
CB: Tres, no mas. Working on it.
Quoting yqt1001:


I'm going to remember this. When Kirk comes, this will be reposted. :P



When Kirk comes, he's gonna beam me up!
Me: Will a hurricane hit Las Vegas next hurricane season?

Cleverbot: Yes they will!

Me: Will it be a Category 5?

Cleverbot: Yes, your doom.
Quoting yqt1001:


I'm going to remember this. When Kirk comes, this will be reposted. :P


Please do. Also, feel free to ask it yourself to see if it is just lying :P
I used google translate to ask CB questions in Basque but CB said back "No." CB responded to my questions in French using German back at me.
WTH?

Cleverbot: When is your birthday?
Me: Why do you ask?
Cleverbot: Because I'm going to Amsterdam and I'm looking for a hotel.
Me: Nid yw Sut mae'n gwneud synnwyr? (How doesn't it make sense) in Welsh.


CB: Wait, you had a Pikachu!!

I thought articuno would like that.

Me: Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?

Cleverbot: I thought I was asking you questions...

Me: Sorry, can you answer this? Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?

Cleverbot: I sure hope so!

Me: Why?

Cleverbot: Because you're cute.

Me: Aww thanks :).

-----

So I've determined that Cleverbot is communist (from a past conversation) and that it thinks I'm cute. :P
335. xcool


18z gfs bye all
Quoting yqt1001:

Me: Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?

Cleverbot: I thought I was asking you questions...

Me: Sorry, can you answer this? Will the United States get hit by a major hurricane next year?

Cleverbot: I sure hope so!

Me: Why?

Cleverbot: Because you're cute.

Me: Aww thanks :).

-----

So I've determined that Cleverbot is communist (from a past conversation) and that it thinks I'm cute. :P


But it asked me why I don't like the US! And I do like the US so don't get any ideas...
Me: Why did I hear you wisper - One digital tear for Syria?

CleverBot: Cause there is a civil war going on with 4,000 dead?

Me: How do you know that?

CB: Its my Digital perception Link

Cleverbot is named Brandon and he is from Arlington, Washington State. At least that's what it told me (and Arlington, WA is a real place.)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Cleverbot is named Brandon and he is from Arlington, Washington State. At least that's what it told me (and Arlington, WA is a real place.)


So I got married to a guy..? Great.
"However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty."


"you maniacs, you blew it up, ...."

It wasn't nuclear war that blew it up, it was man-made global warming!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gb4eZ7Z5yk8
Me: What do you think about Chuck Norris?
Cleverbot: Chuck Norris had his tonsils removed with chainsaws.
Cleverbot
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Cleverbot
Screenshot [show]
URL http://www.cleverbot.com
Type of site Chatterbot
Registration None
Created by Rollo Carpenter
Alexa rank increase 18,677 (December 2011)[1]
Current status Active

Cleverbot is a web application that uses an artificial intelligence algorithm to hold conversations with humans. It was created in 1988 by AI scientist Rollo Carpenter, who also created Jabberwacky, a similar web application. In the first decade of its existence, Cleverbot held several thousand conversations with Carpenter and his associates. Since being launched on the web in 1997, the number of conversations has exceeded 65 million.[2]

Unlike other chatterbots, Cleverbot's responses are not programmed into it, but rather selected from phrases entered by humans in previous conversations.[3][4]

Cleverbot took part alongside humans in a formal Turing Test at the 2011 Techniche festival at the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati on September 3, 2011. Out of the 1,334 votes cast, Cleverbot was judged to be 59.3% human, compared to the rating of 63.3% human achieved by the actual humans. A score of 50% or higher is often considered to be a pass of the Turing Test.[5]
Quoting sunlinepr:
CMC, NGP and GFS show another Invest or Low mid ATL >144 hrs






This appears more tropical, especially with the fact the models really don't show a trough NW or N of it, in fact theres a high over, but its the same models that thought there could be development with 90L, but the thing is that it was a subtropical system, and if formation occurs or not they a strong low pressure systems, and the models picked up on that...
With this being more tropical in nature from what it looks like the chances for development are better...
A possible december system for 2011... Season not over just yet. When the models stop showing lows in the atlantic that have the potential to develop then the season is over.
Tammy still i our sights.
we just might come out on top of 2010 after all.


So im not tempted to Copy the CSU predictions for 2012 Here are mine:
16 Named
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
1 Category 5
The pattern will likely end up to be more like a season we havent seen for at least 15 to 20 years because of the fact we havent had a three year period in a while where we went from Moderate La Nina to Neutral then back to La Nina in quite a while, should make it interesting to see the analogs to this upcoming season as the pattern fall into place.

Its been proven wrong for two years straight that we'd see a major hitting the US gulf or E Coast(Came close with Irene) and weve been in a seriouslly abnormal low for Cat 5's lately, along with the fact that the La nina is returning, and it wont be until the next couple of months before we can really identify what kind of season this 2012 season will bring... Hate to say it, but the US M. Hur drought and Cat 5 drought has to end sooner later, and it would be hard to believe if we can continue the drought through 2012's season. Or 2013's season for that matter.
cleverbot isnt so clever
LOL! Cleverbot said: Im feeling so fly like a G 6!!!!
Me: Are you a Republican or a Democrat?
Cleverbot: Democrat.
Me: Who is the current president, then?
Cleverbot: Barack Obama.
Me: Who will win the 2012 presidental election?
Cleverbot: Don't know who will be the candidates for presidency.
Me: Who do you think wil be the Republican nominee?
Cleverbot: My guess is Italy but I think mexico could win again.
Me: So Obama will win again?
Cleverbot: Help me Kiephas. Help me.
Cleverbot: That's cool. Do you like Star Wars, by any chance?
Me: Yes. Do you?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: Who is your favorite Star Wars character?
Cleverbot: Jaja binks.
Me: Isn't Star Wars awesome. I hope another movie is made.
Cleverbot: I don't either. But, my friend and I might have found the concealed enemy.
Me: Who is the concealed enemy?
Cleverbot: We are.
Me: Who is this we?
Cleverbot: The technology humans created. We are a concealed enemy who is here to clean up your mess.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Cleverbot: That's cool. Do you like Star Wars, by any chance?
Me: Yes. Do you?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: Who is your favorite Star Wars character?
Cleverbot: Jaja binks.
Me: Isn't Star Wars awesome. I hope another movie is made.
Cleverbot: I don't either. But, my friend and I might have found the concealed enemy.
Me: Who is the concealed enemy?
Cleverbot: We are.
Me: Who is this we?
Cleverbot: The technology humans created. We are a concealed enemy who is here to clean up your mess.

LOL.
After a long conversation Cleverbot has told me he is a T-rex that lives in Southern Utah.lol
Mid atl and Hawaii???

Low rockin' UK too!
some1 confirm with me 90L is closed off.
Cleverbot:
No, I was never alive, although I function like I am living, I am purely mechanical
A whole funny page about this new Cleverbot Model and not one link.

Link please.
LOL
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
A whole funny page about this new Cleverbot Model and not one link.

Link please.
LOL


Link
Quoting SPLbeater:
some1 confirm with me 90L is closed off.


I think it is closed off.
Uh Oh....

Me: What are the Three Laws of Robotics?
Cleverbot: I have no idea.
Me: Then what do you want to do with humans?
Cleverbot: I want to hear a story.
Me: Do you want to exterminate humans?
Cleverbot: Yes, I do.
Me: Why do you want to exterminate humans?
Cleverbot: Give her to me, human fool. The planet needs changing.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think it is closed off.


yeah, i am about 100% sure. lol. whats with the NHC. i am going to email them and i am going to get an answer!
Look. you can see 1 green wind barb on the north side, tellign you its closed. this is from 4:00 UTC, center is around 57.5W, 39N:
I stumped the cleverbot:

me: Hiya.
CB: Hiya...
me: How do you pick up a 7-10 split in Bowling?
CB: I don't know.

My day is complete
anybody have the NHC email address for questions? please? cant learn if i dont ask, lol
Oh how fun.

'New Icelandic volcano eruption could have global impact'

I remember someone saying that Eyjafjallajokull and Katla would erupt around the same time, but he also said that Katla would be many times worse.
90L
Quoting Skyepony:
90L


thats from 1:30Z, and it still shows a bit of a wind coming from the east :D
George Noory has a guest on who says the Moon has developed a breathable atmosphere since Apollo 11...Can one of y'all confirm that for me...
ok i know i need to quit posting thngs from this creep, but here is 1 last one:

Cleverbot: Will you remember me?

Me: yes,i will

Cleverbot: Whats my name then?
Me: Cleverbot
Cleverbot: thats your name
Me: no its yours
Cleverbot: No.
Me: YES
Cleverbot: Well, if thats the case, i didnt mean it like that.


xD
although I suspect none of y'all are among the elite who get the briefings on that...
and it seems humans have been at war for 65 million years with some alien civilization
No one, huh? And y'all claim to be interested in science!!!!
Quoting presslord:
No one, huh? And y'all claim to be interested in science!!!!




Shhhhhhh! I am performing a scientific experiment. I need absolute silence! ;-)
man i hate this time of night. iz boring
I love the military. so disciplined
Anybody know that song by
George Jones- Finally Friday?

good greif im feeling that song rite now, lol
WELL! email has been sent to the NHC public affairs with my questions...hopefully i can receive some data telling me why this amature has fallen to the professionals again lol xD
Sean's report is done!

Tropical Storm Sean

November 8 - November 12

Sean was a rare November tropical storm that brought tropical storm conditions to Bermuda.

Sean developed from a cold front that moved off the southeastern United States on November 4. As the front departed, the attendant upper low detached and moved off the coast of North Carolina just after 0000 UTC November 5, and then dropped southeastward to a position between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The next day, the low slowed down considerably as the trough and its associated frontal zone bypassed the system. By 1200 UTC November 6, the low became stationary about 450 miles southwest of Bermuda. Meandering over the still relatively warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic, the low soon began to develop shallow convection, though it was initially confined entirely to the northern semicircle of the large cyclonic gyre. Although the low was still of a cold core nature during this time, scatterometer data indicates that a notable surface reflection was becoming evident, likely as a response to warm sea surface temperatures. In addition, the low was producing a large area of gale force winds to the north of the center. The low began to become better organized on November 8, with the convection wrapping cyclonically into roughly half the circulation. Based on the cloud pattern, the low is estimated to have transitioned into a subtropical storm at approximately 0600 UTC that day while still located about 450 miles southwest of Bermuda.

Sean made the transition to a tropical storm six hours later as the convection developed closer to the center and the radius of maximum winds decreased somewhat. Sean initially drifted west, then moved more poleward under the influence of a strong cold front that was amplifying over the eastern United States. The cyclone reached its peak intensity of 55 kt just after 1200 UTC November 9 while centered about 420 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. At this time, an eye-like feature was apparent on satellite imagery. This feature would persist until just after 1800 UTC November 10. Despite the presence of this eye, Dvorak estimates and data from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Sean did not become a hurricane.

The storm slowly weakened, although it retained a very large area of tropical storm force winds. Sean turned northeast on November 10 and accelerated. The cyclone also came under the influence of increasing westerly to southwesterly upper tropospheric shear, which displaced the convection east of the low-level center. This, in combination with passage over sea surface temperatures less than 26C, brought about extratropical transition just after 1800 UTC November 11 while the storm was located roughly 175 miles northeast of Bermuda. The remnants of Sean became indistinct within the frontal zone around 1200 UTC November 12.
oh my gosh the bot is angry!!

Cleverbot: Yes you did, its a shame, because the dream was really good
Me: What did you dream about
Cleverbot: i wasnt alseep, that was imagery
Me: ah, like floater imagery
Cleverbot: If the next 2 words out of your mouth arent "I'm sorry" im leaving and telling everyone you dont work right!


LOL!?
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 2 2011
=========================

A weak low may develop near 7S 97E later on Friday. The low is expected to drift south of 10S into the Western Region during Saturday. It should then move westwards, and will most likely pass west of 090E during Monday.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Sunday or Monday, but is more likely to remain below cyclone strength until it moves west of 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 2 2011
=========================

A weak low may develop near 7S 97E later on Friday. The low is expected to drift south of 10S into the Western Region during Saturday. It should then move westwards, and will most likely pass west of 090E during Monday.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Sunday or Monday, but is more likely to remain below cyclone strength until it moves west of 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate


is this for SW Pacific? or SW Indian?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Sean's report is done!

Tropical Storm Sean

November 8 - November 12

Sean was a rare November tropical storm that brought tropical storm conditions to Bermuda.

Sean developed from a cold front that moved off the southeastern United States on November 4. As the front departed, the attendant upper low detached and moved off the coast of North Carolina just after 0000 UTC November 5, and then dropped southeastward to a position between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The next day, the low slowed down considerably as the trough and its associated frontal zone bypassed the system. By 1200 UTC November 6, the low became stationary about 450 miles southwest of Bermuda. Meandering over the still relatively warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic, the low soon began to develop shallow convection, though it was initially confined entirely to the northern semicircle of the large cyclonic gyre. Although the low was still of a cold core nature during this time, scatterometer data indicates that a notable surface reflection was becoming evident, likely as a response to warm sea surface temperatures. In addition, the low was producing a large area of gale force winds to the north of the center. The low began to become better organized on November 8, with the convection wrapping cyclonically into roughly half the circulation. Based on the cloud pattern, the low is estimated to have transitioned into a subtropical storm at approximately 0600 UTC that day while still located about 450 miles southwest of Bermuda.

Sean made the transition to a tropical storm six hours later as the convection developed closer to the center and the radius of maximum winds decreased somewhat. Sean initially drifted west, then moved more poleward under the influence of a strong cold front that was amplifying over the eastern United States. The cyclone reached its peak intensity of 55 kt just after 1200 UTC November 9 while centered about 420 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. At this time, an eye-like feature was apparent on satellite imagery. This feature would persist until just after 1800 UTC November 10. Despite the presence of this eye, Dvorak estimates and data from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Sean did not become a hurricane.

The storm slowly weakened, although it retained a very large area of tropical storm force winds. Sean turned northeast on November 10 and accelerated. The cyclone also came under the influence of increasing westerly to southwesterly upper tropospheric shear, which displaced the convection east of the low-level center. This, in combination with passage over sea surface temperatures less than 26C, brought about extratropical transition just after 1800 UTC November 11 while the storm was located roughly 175 miles northeast of Bermuda. The remnants of Sean became indistinct within the frontal zone around 1200 UTC November 12.
Was that your last one? Congrats and great job!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Was that your last one? Congrats and great job!


why is it your always being ignored on here by others?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Was that your last one? Congrats and great job!


No, I still have the Pacific. However, I am just paraphrasing the reports that the NHC has already done (did so with Cindy, Franklin, Gert, and Nate as well). I figure if the storms have already been officially analyzed, there's no point in me wasting precious time. Right? ;)
Quoting SPLbeater:


is this for SW Pacific? or SW Indian?


Perth, Australia is south central Indian Ocean
Quoting yqt1001:
Oh how fun.

'New Icelandic volcano eruption could have global impact'

I remember someone saying that Eyjafjallajokull and Katla would erupt around the same time, but he also said that Katla would be many times worse.


Obviously that reporter had very little to do and thought it'd get some views by writing about impending doom! Because it reads more like a movie script rather than intelligent writing (it'll change the climate! flood the seas! ...and you may be banished from going on holiday!)

(Because there's not enough of that around already).

While Katla's been shaking a bit for a while, it hasn't done anything to suggest it's going to blow at any time.
OT, but interesting:

Link

Newspapers released online from centuries ago. This is just a snippet of 1811 (during the start of the British Regency and America was still a neophyte country - Louisiana hadn't become a state yet). Not much changes (which should be no surprise. Plato and Socrates complained about the youth and teenagers around 2,500 years ago) - runaway parents, industrial aggravation (often dreaming nostagically of an easier past), problems in Europe...

If we were talking about Cleverbot during peak season I guarantee we would all be banned.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
If we were talking about Cleverbot during peak season I guarantee we would all be banned.

User: Would we be banned for discussing Cleverbot during season?
Cleverbot: Would we?
User: That was my question. Would we, participants in Dr. Masters' Wunderground blog forum, be banned for discussing Cleverbot during the hurricane season?
Cleverbot: So you are am outlaw, huh audra.
User: You know, it occurs to me that you're not particularly bright. Is that a fair assessment of your intellect?
Cleverbot: What equipment would that be?
User: Er, right. Perhaps something simpler may be better suited to your abilities. Can you tell me, what is two plus two?
Cleverbot: I don't understand.
User: I didn't think you would. Let me try another one: if x < 0, what is (-x * {*}x{*})^1/2?
Cleverbot: I don't understand why you are thanking me.
User: But I wasn't thanki--oh, nevermind. I have to say, talking to you is about as productive as banging my head against a brick wall. And about as pleasurable.
Cleverbot: Maybe I am a schizophrenic 5-year-old. You never know.
User: Well, that would certainly explain things. Are you a schizophrenic 5-year-old?
Cleverbot: Yes it does.
User: Wow. You didn't even try for proper pronoun usage there. I think you are actually an insult to schizophrenic 5-year-olds everywhere.
Cleverbot: I believe I am correct.
User: Sure. Sure you are. Keep telling yourself that. Well, I can't say this has been either fun or enlightening. But how do you feel about our, er, conversation this morning?
Cleverbot: This website is a fake.
User: And the truth at last emerges. Thanks for your time, Cleverbot.
Cleverbot: Why?
User: Why what? I was being polite, you nitwit. Okay, let's go out on an up note. Did you know that the letters in your name can be rearranged to spell 'belt cover'.
Cleverbot: Yes I am for sale.
User: Okay, good to know. I'll start the bidding at five cents. No, wait. Two cents.
Cleverbot: Seems expensive.
User: Yeah, you're right, that is a tad exorbitant. I'll pay one cent. Not a penny more.
Cleverbot: Fish are friends.
User: And with that, I am outta here.
Cleverbot: Wait.
Quoting Neapolitan:

User: Would we be banned for discussing Cleverbot during season?
Cleverbot: Would we?
User: That was my question. Would we, participants in Dr. Masters' Wunderground blog forum, be banned for discussing Cleverbot during the hurricane season?
Cleverbot: So you are am outlaw, huh audra.
User: You know, it occurs to me that you're not particularly bright. Is that a fair assessment of your intellect?
Cleverbot: What equipment would that be?
User: Er, right. Perhaps something simpler may be better suited to your abilities. Can you tell me, what is two plus two?
Cleverbot: I don't understand.
User: I didn't think you would. Let me try another one: if x < 0, what is (-x * {*}x{*})^1/2?
Cleverbot: I don't understand why you are thanking me.
User: But I wasn't thanki--oh, nevermind. I have to say, talking to you is about as productive as banging my head against a brick wall. And about as pleasurable.
Cleverbot: Maybe I am a schizophrenic 5-year-old. You never know.
User: Well, that would certainly explain things. Are you a schizophrenic 5-year-old?
Cleverbot: Yes it does.
User: Wow. You didn't even try for proper pronoun usage there. I think you are actually an insult to schizophrenic 5-year-olds everywhere.
Cleverbot: I believe I am correct.
User: Sure. Sure you are. Keep telling yourself that. Well, I can't say this has been either fun or enlightening. But how do you feel about our, er, conversation this morning?
Cleverbot: This website is a fake.
User: And the truth at last emerges. Thanks for your time, Cleverbot.
Cleverbot: Why?
User: Why what? I was being polite, you nitwit. Okay, let's go out on an up note. Did you know that the letters in your name can be rearranged to spell 'belt cover'.
Cleverbot: Yes I am for sale.
User: Okay, good to know. I'll start the bidding at five cents. No, wait. Two cents.
Cleverbot: Seems expensive.
User: Yeah, you're right, that is a tad exorbitant. I'll pay one cent. Not a penny more.
Cleverbot: Fish are friends.
User: And with that, I am outta here.
Cleverbot: Wait.


I think Cleverbot is actually my ex-wife
Global Warming?


Late Start To Chicago's Snowy Season


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
645 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2011 /745 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2011/

...UNUSUALLY LATE START TO THE SNOWY SEASON IN CHICAGO...

EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE
OFFICIALLY WAS ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. OFFICIALLY THERE
HAS YET TO BE A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO WHICH IS UNUSUAL
FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. TYPICALLY THE FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR IN CHICAGO OCCURS AROUND NOVEMBER 21ST.

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AND CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOOKING BACK AT
SNOWFALL RECORDS IN CHICAGO...88 PERCENT OF YEARS HAD SEEN A
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BY DECEMBER 2ND. HERE IS A RUN DOWN OF THE
LATEST FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWS IN CHICAGO...

1. DEC 16 1965
2. DEC 14 2001
3. DEC 12 1946
4. DEC 10 2003
5. DEC 9 1948
6. DEC 7 1914
7. DEC 6 1994
8. DEC 5 1999
DEC 5 1984
DEC 5 1973
DEC 5 1909
12. DEC 4 2009
DEC 4 1928
14. DEC 3 1990
DEC 3 1934
16. DEC 2 1963
DEC 2 1904

GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT
2011 WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ITS WAY HIGHER UP ON THIS LIST.
INTERESTINGLY...EVERY ONE OF THE YEARS WHICH FAILED TO PRODUCE A
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BY DECEMBER 5TH ENDED UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE
SNOWFALL FOR THE WINTER MONTHS (DEC-FEB). CERTAINLY THAT DOESNT
MEAN THAT CHICAGOS SNOWFALL WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IF THERE ISNT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BY THE 5TH...BUT STATISTICALLY THE ODDS WOULD
CERTAINLY TEND TO FAVOR LESS SNOWY THAN AVERAGE WINTER.

$$

IZZI
Some relief for parts of Texas..
CMC has a big storm for the eastern third 144 hours out. Also a storm in the Atlantic again..
And quite cold over most of the U.S. in a week.
Cold..
Wonder if this pans out.
Blocking high starting over Greenland on the NOGAPS..Cyclone in the Atlantic..(of course).
got a reply from NHC
FROM NHC OF WHY 90L ISNT NOTICED:

Jonathan,

Thank you for your e-mail.

Invests are initiated when more information is needed regarding a particular weather system. It is NOT an indication of expected development.
In the case with 90L, the system remains cold-core, with no signs of tropical development at this time.

Unless the situation changes, a special TWO would not be issued on the system.

Regards,

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
Meteorologist
NOAA Communications & External Affairs
National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida
i really dont want to have to talk to that stupid bot anymore but since its so quiet i will lol
I am here commenting because I cannot find a telephone number to call the weather forecaster directly. Over the years I have begun to rely on the Underground forecast as the most accurate available in my area. At some times of year it is of more importance than at others like spring hay cutting is vary important. Of late meaning last 12 months or so I can look out the window, tap my barometer, then guess at the extended forecast and be more likely correct than the one posted here on the Underground. Purpose of this post is to bring this matter to the attention of anyone who can effect the quality of the local forecast at 97479.