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Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.


Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.

Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting dracko19:


Possible shear near Cuba. Even if it takes the NW jog soon it might skirt the shear which would inhibit strengthening. Once it goes MAJOR, eyewall replacement cycles could cause it to fluctuate in intensity.


That shear is of no significance. Conditions will be quite favorable for intensification of Irene throughout the Bahamas unfortunately.
3502. emguy
Also important to note when looking at models like the HWRF...if she is higher in pressure than 930mb, she will be west of track. Irene is impressive, but currently not forecast to be 930 mb impressive.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Still on a dangerous path at 78 hours...a good western component.

Interesting to see if it follows the experimental model shown by Drakoen.
Quoting AllStar17:


TWC added a box? On the Local on the 8s that says "Watch Tropics"?

No I just saw the colored boxes for the possible impacts for the islands and states.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Um??? Jumped to NW from 72 hr at 78.



Ridge building to the east.. Makes sense to me.
3506. DFWjc
Quoting drj27:
Tampaspin knows what hes talking about and know he would not joke about stuff like this


I concur...
3507. jonelu
Quoting Drakoen:


Yup. So far the GFS, HWRF, and GGEM are east of Florida, the NOGAPS is dangerously close. Now awaiting the UKMET, GFDL, and ECMWF.
Hasnt the ECMWF performed the best of the models recently? I thought I read that in the Doc's blog a couple days ago.
Checking the ensemble members against historical tracks within two degrees of Irene, most anything is possible!
Quoting WaterWitch11:

No I just saw the colored boxes for the possible impacts for the islands and states.


The Exclusive Threat Level graphic?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Apparently you don't know me.........I would never joke about something like this.......I warned everyone this evening that this was coming.


What did u say?
84 hr. Agree with MississippiWx about it being western edge of cone.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting to see if it follows the experimental model shown by Drakoen.


Will go farther east than that on this run. Florida is probably out of the picture altogether, but you never know.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
BIG no. HWRF is disagreeing with GFS.


im getting sooo confused,everyone saying the new gfs lets florida off the hook,nogaps moves west and cuts the distance in half, now and gfdl,its gonna slam florida..............whats the hell??????????/
HH Aircraft heading for another center fix.
man is pretty good at predicting were a storm goes I just hope mother nature doesn't throw a kink in it.
and with that said good night to all.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


im getting sooo confused,everyone saying the new gfs lets florida off the hook,nogaps moves west and cuts the distance in half, now hwrf and gfdl,its gonna slam florida..............whats the hell??????????/


Honestly, Just follow the NHC...they're usually pretty good; probably why they work there ;)
3518. Drakoen
Quoting jonelu:
Hasnt the ECMWF performed the best of the models recently? I thought I read that in the Doc's blog a couple days ago.


Yes
Quoting AllStar17:


The Exclusive Threat Level graphic?

I think it was
Oh lord... toward Charleston at 90 hr.

Quoting jonelu:
Hasnt the ECMWF performed the best of the models recently? I thought I read that in the Doc's blog a couple days ago.


Just checked all of the models on the FSU page and I see Florida in much more play than I did earlier in the day. Models seem to be running much closer to the east coast.
3523. WxLogic
Interesting 00Z HWRF stalls it for a couple hours.
3524. DFWjc
Quoting AllStar17:
HH Aircraft heading for another center fix.


The G4 is going down around DR/Haiti island and then back to Florida, while the C-130 is going around the Bahamas to see if conditions will change the current cone.
I don't see how Irene misses SC/NC on this run of the HWRF.


You know, with the outflow expanding in all quads, this storm is getting big. Once it moves away from land, it could really wind up. Its always important to focus on the eyewall, but with the expanding wind field, its possible some in Florida might feel the effects of this storm with at least tropical force winds and likely some beach erosion and high waves depending on how close that turn is.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


im getting sooo confused,everyone saying the new gfs lets florida off the hook,nogaps moves west and cuts the distance in half, now hwrf and gfdl,its gonna slam florida..............whats the hell??????????/
just follow NHC track... models are meant to make the track at average location from all of models.
3528. will40


still close to NHC track
Yep... still toward Charleston at 102 hr.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I don't see how Irene misses SC/NC on this run of the HWRF.



Yep, and the model is slightly east of the last run but not by much. Seems the question becomes: does it keep moving north into the coast or does it turn NNE and rides the coastline (onshore or offshore)...
Quoting Alockwr21:


Honestly, Just follow the NHC...they're usually pretty good; probably why they work there ;)
lol....i def do that..but im telling you,what goes on in here......sometimes just escapes me


Above is the CAT 4 steering Flow..........nice gap!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


im getting sooo confused,everyone saying the new gfs lets florida off the hook,nogaps moves west and cuts the distance in half, now and gfdl,its gonna slam florida..............whats the hell??????????/
The bottom line is that 12 hours ago the NHC forecast the storm to be exactly where it is now.
Quoting dracko19:


You know, with the outflow expanding in all quads, this storm is getting big. Once it moves away from land, it could really wind up. Its always important to focus on the eyewall, but with the expanding wind field, its possible some in Florida might feel the effects of this storm with at least tropical force winds and likely some beach erosion and high waves depending on how close that turn is.

You seem to know your stuff. Are you going to be on here tomorrow (errr this morning now)?
3535. jonelu
Quoting TigerFanOrl:


Just checked all of the models on the FSU page and I see Florida in much more play than I did earlier in the day. Models seem to be running much closer to the east coast.
Thats not what Ive been reading..Im feeling better about FL....and I will have a big sigh of relief if the Euro at 2:30 stays off coast.
3536. nigel20


Looks like TCI is already going under the canopy..... that's the west end of Provo sticking out along the blue edge there......
Irene gets pushed more west at 102 on the HWRF.

Unfortunately, that's a reliable model that's pro-landfall.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


im getting sooo confused,everyone saying the new gfs lets florida off the hook,nogaps moves west and cuts the distance in half, now and gfdl,its gonna slam florida..............whats the hell??????????/


I know exactly what you mean. One say's it's one way another says oh no it's this way.. ridiculous at times. I don't think anyone should give any of the models much credit past 48 hours out.
Hurricane Hunter about to make another pass... thought they are done?
Charleston starting to get it at 108.

3542. DFWjc
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hurricane Hunter about to make another pass... thought they are done?


next one is in 35-40 mins
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


im getting sooo confused,everyone saying the new gfs lets florida off the hook,nogaps moves west and cuts the distance in half, now and gfdl,its gonna slam florida..............whats the hell??????????/


Check the ensemble members. Then check the historical tracks. The historical tracks are more diverse because the distribution is Cauchy.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Charleston starting to get it at 108.




well that sucks
which way is she moving
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The bottom line is that 12 hours ago the NHC forecast the storm to be exactly where it is now.


+1
3547. NCSCguy
If this thing heads toward Charleston Fri/Sat I'm very worried that I won't be able to get out in time. Boss won't let anyone off unless "Evacuation orders are given or, conditions are unsafe"
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Charleston starting to get it at 108.



which model is this?
3549. DFWjc
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
which way is she moving


WNW
Landfall in SC

Direct hit on Charleston at 114.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Charleston starting to get it at 108.



Thanks for the images, well appreciated :)
Is it like everyone has their personal favorite model,and if the other models dont agree,then they are wrong? or just use the top 5 most accurate over time like:
1)ecmwf
2)gfs
3)ukmet
4)gfdl
5)hwrf

?????
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Direct hit on Charleston at 114.




I was hoping for a not so chaotic day tomm
Quoting MississippiWx:


Will go farther east than that on this run. Florida is probably out of the picture altogether, but you never know.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Irene gets pushed more west at 102 on the HWRF.

Unfortunately, that's a reliable model that's pro-landfall.



???? which one man. I really like reading your posts, you seem extremely knowledgeable. You are one of the few I actually believe. But which way East or West? It gets confusing, either that or I'm just unable to keep up.
.
120 over Moncks Corner, my hometown.

Well darn! Being from Charleston that just gives me something too think about going to bed....
Quoting jonelu:
Thats not what Ive been reading..Im feeling better about FL....and I will have a big sigh of relief if the Euro at 2:30 stays off coast.


Well I'm with you hoping Florida is out. I just remember this morning many of the models had the storm a good ways off of the coast of Florida. Now the gfdl, hwrf, and gfs have the storm very close if not hammering Florida. Looks a lot different than earlier.
3560. nymore
Taz what is wrong with you it is not cool
Quoting DFWjc:


WNW

when should she move nw?
Quoting Bluestorm5:

You seem to know your stuff. Are you going to be on here tomorrow (errr this morning now)?


Yep. I'll be tracking this with everyone else. I've got over 200 links and sources on Hurricanes I have to pour through. I'll have some great data to post tomorrow. Its been awhile since I've been tracking, so have to get up to speed.
Quoting BahaHurican:


Looks like TCI is already going under the canopy..... that's the west end of Provo sticking out along the blue edge there......


Later, Hispanola.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



???? which one man. I really like reading your posts, you seem extremely knowledgeable. You are one of the few I actually believe. But which way East or West? It gets confusing, either that or I'm just unable to keep up.


Lol...Thanks for the compliments. However, when I said it gets pushed farther west, it was already past Florida. Someone asked if the HWRF would be similar to the experimental HWRF run that goes into Florida. I said it would be farther east than that one.

You just read things at different times, making it seem contradictory.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



???? which one man. I really like reading your posts, you seem extremely knowledgeable. You are one of the few I actually believe. But which way East or West? It gets confusing, either that or I'm just unable to keep up.
I'm with you. HWRF is little east from last run. Just follow NHC and you'll know where it's going.
Quoting Bluestorm5:

You seem to know your stuff. Are you going to be on here tomorrow (errr this morning now)?


Here ya go....this is what you go by until the next official update is made available. If you have a problem with this I suggest that you express your concerns to the management of the various agencies who produce these products.



3567. DFWjc
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:


Just going by what Wu, TWC, and any other weather site has posted, waiting for the 2am update (EDT)
3568. jonelu
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



???? which one man. I really like reading your posts, you seem extremely knowledgeable. You are one of the few I actually believe. But which way East or West? It gets confusing, either that or I'm just unable to keep up.
3569. will40



126hrs
Quoting MississippiWx:
90



That is not very good. Irene will be a major event...
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Thanks for the compliments. However, when I said it gets pushed farther west, it was already past Florida. Someone asked if the HWRF would be similar to the experimental HWRF run that goes into Florida. I said it would be farther east than that one.

You just read things at different times, making it seem contradictory.


Gotcha now. just mis read some things. carry on soldier.
Ugh, heading for Raleigh at 126 as strong Category 3/low end Category 4. (final image)

3573. NCSCguy
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



I was hoping for a not so chaotic day tomm
Amen time to start packing... just in case.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm with you. HWRF is little east from last run. Just follow NHC and you'll know where it's going.


what model have you been posting...I live in CHS
3575. scCane
Right now, I'm thinking the HWRF is the outlier at the moment. It was also pretty low in accuracy during the 2010 season according to Jeff's previous blog post.
Quoting jonelu:
I think you just answered your own question. I keep my eye on what Levi, Drakoen, Keeper of the Gate post...along with a couple others. They post legit info and explanations.


Well, you don't have to follow what I post, but he took things from posts that were not even related and pieced them together which made them look contradictory.
Update within 27 minutes.
3578. RyanFSU


Quoting will40:



126hrs


Not looking good for inland SC/NC...looking like central NC could eventually be in the north east quadrant...
Quoting jonelu:
I think you just answered your own question. I keep my eye on what Levi, Drakoen, Keeper of the Gate post...along with a couple others. They post legit info and explanations.


Those 3 are some of the one's I put some faith in as well. Especially Levi. Mswx seems to be pretty sharp as well so don't knock him.
Expanding explosion...

Quoting dracko19:


Yep. I'll be tracking this with everyone else. I've got over 200 links and sources on Hurricanes I have to pour through. I'll have some great data to post tomorrow. Its been awhile since I've been tracking, so have to get up to speed.
well, I'm glad you are joining us for tomorrow. I joined during Emily tracking to learn more about hurricanes. Irene MAY be the first hurricane I'll see in my life. My mom is Hurricane Hugo survivor, so she'll know what to do.
3583. WxLogic
Quoting RyanFSU:




Large wind field.
Actually a few models shifted west so far at 00Z

BAMM
BAMS
BAMD
NOGAPS

Models that shifted east

GFS
HWRF


So far...

We have yet to see
CMC
EURO
GFDL
UKMET

Quoting NCSCguy:
Amen time to start packing... just in case.



Already starting to talk about 12 hour shifts at the station its always doom and gloom
925 mb. Not good.

That's a borderline Category 5 storm.

Hugo was 934 mb pressure at landfall.
Quoting RyanFSU:




Ryan,

This is your view of what to expect at this time?
Quoting jonelu:
I think you just answered your own question. I keep my eye on what Levi, Drakoen, Keeper of the Gate post...along with a couple others. They post legit info and explanations.


I also don't appreciate you suggesting that I don't post accurate information.
3589. NCSCguy
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



Already starting to talk about 12 hour shifts at the station its always doom and gloom
What do you do over there. My dad worked for WIS in Columbia and he was down here during Hugo filming.
So it's the global models vs. everyone else so far at 0z. The GFS/CMC/NOGAPS all are a very close call, while the NAM/SREF/ATCF suite all come much farther west. The ECMWF will be very interesting, hopefully I can stay up for it this time. :P
3591. jonelu
Quoting reedzone:
Actually a few models shifted west so far at 00Z

BAMM
BAMS
BAMD
NOGAPS

So far...

We have yet to see
CMC
EURO
GFDL
UKMET

I think by 2:30 runs we will be more confidant...hopefully
3592. WxLogic
HH having a little trouble finding that center.

Appears the proximity to the extreme northern coast of DR is disrupting is circulation.
Quoting SCwannabe:


what model have you been posting...I live in CHS



Thats the 00z HWRF
Quoting Dennis8:


They just arrived today! BIG $$$$ to be spent but no price on lives. First hotel said ' DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY' we have generators and hurricane proof construction Then about face this evening and GET THE HELL OUT OF HERE!
That's the difference between cat 2 well to the west and cat 4 right over the island. However, I'm surprised Atlantis didn't facilitate your flight arrangements... usually they r pretty good about that....

I did say last night u'd prolly want 2 get everybody out by tuesday night....
You know this year had been "The Fives" with large numbers of EF-5 tornadoes... hope it doesn't trend with hurricanes. Remember this is STILL August with the peak of season yet to come.


Here's the GFS model for 2am EDT Sunday night/monday morning. You can see how the two troughs over the eastern half of the nation are both digging towards the southeast while that high offshore remains anchored there. These troughs, combined with the Bermuda high offshore being so far north will keep this thing on a north-northeast heading.
3597. jonelu
Quoting MississippiWx:


I also don't appreciate you suggesting that I don't post accurate information.
My bad. I will remove the post and apologize.
Quoting NCSCguy:
What do you do over there. My dad worked for WIS in Columbia and he was down here during Hugo filming.



I am a director i punch the 7pm news
Quoting philliesrock:
So it's the global models vs. everyone else so far at 0z. The GFS/CMC/NOGAPS all are a very close call, while the NAM/SREF/ATCF suite all come much farther west. The ECMWF will be very interesting, hopefully I can stay up for it this time. :P


Actually NOGAPS has tooken a nice shift to the left, scraping Florida on the 00Z run (with HH data)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Above is the CAT 4 steering Flow..........nice gap!
Yeah, but that trough is lifting out before it becomes a Cat. 4.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You know this year had been "The Fives" with large numbers of EF-5 tornadoes... hope it doesn't trend with hurricanes. Remember this is STILL August with the peak of season yet to come.


If Irene were to hit as a Category 5, it would be the only recorded east coast Category 5 (unless you count Andrew, which hit south Florida).

That's unlikely to happen, though.
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's the difference between cat 2 well to the west and cat 4 right over the island. However, I'm surprised Atlantis didn't facilitate your flight arrangements... usually they r pretty good about that....

I did say last night u'd prolly want 2 get everybody out by tuesday night....


Baha, hope you have everything prepared for Irene. I also hope you don't have to experience anything too terrible. Will be thinking about you down there.
3603. will40
Quoting MississippiWx:


I also don't appreciate you suggesting that I don't post accurate information.



i agree completely i have never seen you post anything at all unaccurate
Tons of rain here in PR

Quoting reedzone:
Actually a few models shifted west so far at 00Z

BAMM
BAMS
BAMD
NOGAPS

Models that shifted east

GFS
HWRF


So far...

We have yet to see
CMC
EURO
GFDL
UKMET



HWRF shifted west
3606. help4u
when does euro come out?
Quoting sullivanweather:


Here's the GFS model for 2am EDT Sunday night/monday morning. You can see how the two troughs over the eastern half of the nation are both digging towards the southeast while that high offshore remains anchored there. These troughs, combined with the Bermuda high offshore being so far north will keep this thing on a north-northeast heading.


Which is exactly why Irene cannot go out to sea.. If it hits the Carolinas, then it heads NNE to New England. Very slim chance in my opinion as of right now.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You know this year had been "The Fives" with large numbers of EF-5 tornadoes... hope it doesn't trend with hurricanes. Remember this is STILL August with the peak of season yet to come.




I agree and this handy chart tells us all we need to know.
Quoting KoritheMan:


If Irene were to hit as a Category 5, it would be the only recorded east coast Category 5 (unless you count Andrew, which hit south Florida).

That's unlikely to happen, though.
yea, I know. I agree that's highly unlikely... but it's still possible. We'll never know until this storm dies out.
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



Thats the 00z HWRF


Thanks...guess we will at least have to prepare for this thing...still think it will be NC/SC border hit, probable similiar impacts as Floyd with TS force/cat 1 winds??? ugghhh lots of prepping tomorrow
Quoting jonelu:
My bad. I will remove the post and apologize.


I don't care if you don't believe in my opinion...that's fine. I don't care if anyone does. However, I don't take too kindly of people who claim I post inaccurate information. Anything I post about models is going to be spot on.
Quoting will40:



i agree completely i have never seen you post anything at all unaccurate


+1
3614. jonelu
Quoting help4u:
when does euro come out?
2:30...thats what Im waiting for.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


HWRF shifted west



The HWRF is actually north and east of 18z it went from Savannah to Charleston
Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, I know. I agree that's highly unlikely... but it's still possible. We'll never know until this storm dies out.


Many hurricanes weaken before landfall (except in the Caribbean) due to an increasingly hostile environment. This environment is characterized by lower SSTs near the coast, increasing vertical shear, and dry air entrainment. There is a reason why the US has only ever seen three Category 5 landfalls.

A major hurricane is still very possible, though. To be expected, in fact.
Quoting KoritheMan:


If Irene were to hit as a Category 5, it would be the only recorded east coast Category 5 (unless you count Andrew, which hit south Florida).

That's unlikely to happen, though.


The way you phrase it would also omit the 1935 Florida Keys Labor Day hurricane as well...
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



The HWRF is actually north and east of 18z it went from Savannah to Charleston


Yeah but isnt it west of the 12z runs, arent the 0z, and 12z runs known to be more accurate?
Quoting SCwannabe:


Thanks...guess we will at least have to prepare for this thing...still think it will be NC/SC border hit, probable similiar impacts as Floyd with TS force/cat 1 winds??? ugghhh lots of prepping tomorrow


I agree but any slight deviation west and it wont be good always have to watch them til they get past 33N
Anyway, I'm out for the night. Praying for you guys who are in the Bahamas. Be safe and do everything you can to stay out of harm's way when Irene gets to you.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


HWRF shifted west

Huh? The HWRF actually made a slight shift east.
So far, average tracks of all models are similar to NHC. They knows their stuff or otherwise they won't be having this job.
Quoting bayoubrotha:


The way you phrase it would also omit the 1935 Florida Keys Labor Day hurricane as well...


Indeed. I don't consider Florida to be a portion of the US east coast. And I am not the only one who feels that way, apparently.


Sorry. Image fixed.
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:


I agree but any slight deviation west and it wont be good always have to watch them til they get past 32N


If it tracks that close...do you think evacuations will be ordered? you probably have more insight on that kind of information??
Quoting KoritheMan:


Many hurricanes weaken before landfall (except in the Caribbean) due to an increasingly hostile environment. This environment is characterized by lower SSTs near the coast, increasing vertical shear, and dry air entrainment. There is a reason why the US has only ever seen three Category 5 landfalls.

A major hurricane is still very possible, though. To be expected, in fact.


Yep, Category 5 or not, this still can cause major damages along the East Coast. I believes this could be another version of Hazel.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah but isnt it west of the 12z runs, arent the 0z, and 12z runs known to be more accurate?



Its actually same as 12z Charleston
3628. jonelu
Quoting KoritheMan:


If Irene were to hit as a Category 5, it would be the only recorded east coast Category 5 (unless you count Andrew, which hit south Florida).

That's unlikely to happen, though.
1928 Hurricane also.
Is this Preliminary Landfall Graphic I made reasonable?
Good evening everyone
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
3632. tarps3

Quoting dracko19:


Is it me, or can you guys see an eye forming on this shot??

HAHA!!
Quoting dracko19:


Is it me, or can you guys see an eye forming on this shot??


that's not irene
Quoting dracko19:


Is it me, or can you guys see an eye forming on this shot??
um... that's not Irene. This is Igor again...
Quoting AllStar17:
Is this Preliminary Landfall Graphic I made reasonable?


Reasonable :)

However, I would lower chances for North Carolina for now, that is a slim chance in my opinion.
3637. DFWjc
T-minus 10 minutes until the next blog blowup... (laughs)
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Yep, Category 5 or not, this still can cause major damages along the East Coast. I believes this could be another version of Hazel.


Along the area of landfall, perhaps (though I find that unlikely also). However, Hazel was moving much quicker than Irene will be, which maximized the inland wind damage. Remember, the faster the forward speed, the greater likelihood of a significant sustained wind to gust ratio as a system traverses landmasses, due to increased frictional convergence.
3639. Dunkman
00z UKMET makes landfall around Wilmington then runs up to north eastern NC in the 144h frame (around Greenville).
Quoting dracko19:


Is it me, or can you guys see an eye forming on this shot??


Weird, I don't recall Irene being east of the Leeward Islands.

Nice try.
Quoting AllStar17:
Is this Preliminary Landfall Graphic I made reasonable?
I think Miami to Daytona should be medium. Daytona to Jacksonville low, Jacksonville to Savannah medium, Savannah to NJ Coast high.
Quoting jonelu:
1928 Hurricane also.


Wasn't that a Category 4?

The 2am is up and doesn't show any real change. in the track. Pressure is down to 978.
3644. WxLogic
00Z GFDL Init:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

3646. DFWjc
lat 20.1 N lon 9.7 w
winds 100mph
wnw at 12mph
2 am update
Sorry ..fixed image. Too many pages open
Quoting bayoubrotha:


The way you phrase it would also omit the 1935 Florida Keys Labor Day hurricane as well...


The Keys storm could be classified east coast or not; the landfall was more into the straits:



Kind of Atlantic, kind of GOM, not quite Carib...
Quoting listenerVT:
The 2am is up and doesn't show any real change.

I don't expect major change until the 5AM advisory, once the NHC is able to analyze the new suite of model data and update their track accordingly.
Irene heading just N of due West at present
3651. jonelu
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wasn't that a Category 4?

My bad...hit PR at cat5.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
185 MILES...295 KM.

Getting larger.
GFDL run very similar to the HWRF
3654. WxLogic
@48HR GFDL:

NHC track is getting more solid each runs all models make. However, there is 33% chance of error still.
What do you guys think about the possibility of the Irene slowing down too much and being too far south to totally feel the trough?

Thanks!
3657. Grenada
I hope they are all prepared in the Turks & Caicos and the Bahamas, stay safe, the storm surge will probably be horrendous.
3658. WxLogic
Quoting reedzone:
GFDL run very similar to the HWRF


But a bit further S which would then tend to be a bit further W than HWRF (typically) by 24HR .
Quoting bballerf50:
What do you guys think about the possibility of the Irene slowing down too much and being too far south to totally feel the trough?

Thanks!


It's unlikely.
3661. Drakoen
GFDL is off shore Florida and similar to the HWRF. Looking great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas (press isn't around)
978mb. Continues to deepen.
Quoting KoritheMan:
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
185 MILES...295 KM.

Getting larger.
noticed that the last few hours on radar. This is becoming a large hurricane at this moment.
You know it's wierd; get a decent sotrm and the old timers come out...oracle was in here earlier and now the infamous quakeman55

How have you been?
NHC is right on the money. Goodnight all; will check in in the AM!
Quoting listenerVT:
The 2am is up and doesn't show any real change. in the track. Pressure is down to 978.


That's because the track doesn't update with intermediate advisories.
Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL is off shore Florida and similar to the HWRF. Looking great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas (press isn't around)
NHC is doing great job with this storm so far... not good news for me, as I'm in SE Raleigh.
3669. jonelu
Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL is off shore Florida and similar to the HWRF. Looking great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas (press isn't around)
Huge sigh of relief. I can enjoy my day tomorrow.
3670. tj175
Hey guys I stay in Miami and just wanna know are we out of the picture as far as Irene is concerned? Thanks Guys
3671. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL is off shore Florida and similar to the HWRF. Looking great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas (press isn't around)


You got the full run?
Goodnite everyone..........i'm sure things will change some tomorrow with the MODELS......but, not a great deal.....got friends in Charleston......i am feeling the pain for them upcoming.
All models vs. CMC/NOGAPS right now. The GFS is pretty far east too but it destroys the east coast north of NC. I'm making a valiant effort to stay up for the Euro tonight.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
NHC is doing great job with this storm so far... not good news for me, as I'm in SE Raleigh.


Raleigh here too...off Blue Ridge Rd. near Crabtree. Just don't want another Fran!
3675. jonelu
Quoting tj175:
Hey guys I stay in Miami and just wanna know are we out of the picture as far as Irene is concerned? Thanks Guys
Its looking much better for FL...
Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL is off shore Florida and similar to the HWRF. Looking great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas (press isn't around)


Drak, that will wake him out of a dead sleep...LOL
Did CMC run yet?
3679. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:


You got the full run?


On sfwmd.

Quoting Floodman:


Drak, that will wake him out of a dead sleep...LOL


LOL
Florida will still need to watch for any changes.. Remember models aren't gods.
Quoting tj175:
Hey guys I stay in Miami and just wanna know are we out of the picture as far as Irene is concerned? Thanks Guys


Depending on how far west she comes, she might be able to generate tropical storm force winds there, but the core should pass well to the east.
Quoting reedzone:
Florida will still need to watch for any changes.. Remember models aren't gods.


No, but the synoptic pattern is (hyperbole, obviously, before anyone gets offended).
Irene did go from 980 to 978mb as noted by members here.
Through 48 hours on the ECMWF, Irene is in the exact same spot as 12z. However, the trough in the Great Lakes is digging more.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Indeed. I don't consider Florida to be a portion of the US east coast. And I am not the only one who feels that way, apparently.
What is it, if not that?
Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL is off shore Florida and similar to the HWRF. Looking great for Florida but bad for the Carolinas (press isn't around)


Yes, I see that. That is quite a confidence builder isn't it?
3687. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:


On sfwmd.



LOL


Got it... just updated it.
Quoting Floodman:


Drak, that will wake him out of a dead sleep...LOL


You beat me to it, Floodman. I was going to say the same thing. LOL.
3689. RyanFSU
GFDL = HWRF

What time is the next model run people are waiting for? 230 ?


It starts...
flooding at Crabtree might smoke out the rest of the rabid foxes (trying to look on the sunny side) - looks like right now we have 2 properties at risk of leaning from Irene... shakes head & goes to bed...
would be almost too much to process... will not forget mouth guard tonight...
Quoting RyanFSU:
GFDL = HWRF



That Charleston also?
Quoting TampaMishy:
What is it, if not that?


Georgia to Maine.
3695. cwf1069
New bands of rain coming into Puerto Rico. Irene is expanding. To much rain for them in a little time.
Quoting RyanFSU:
GFDL = HWRF



Isn't there an animated image that shows how the model has evolved over time?
Quoting Alockwr21:


Raleigh here too...off Blue Ridge Rd. near Crabtree. Just don't want another Fran!
I'm actually in farmland area south of Clayton, so I'm 20 miles closer to ocean than the city of Raleigh. I usually says Raleigh to prevent stalkers.
gfdl and hwrf both show tropical storm conditions for east coast of florida. I fully expect tropical storm watches tomorrow for portions of east coast of florida
It's nice to see when the HWRF/GFDL match up. Their almost identical track can be attributed to the G-IV data they received at 00z.

However, it's not nice to see them key on a landfall location. A lot can change still.
Wow GFDL was the strongest western outlier... I know its only one run, but looking like florida will not take a direct hit from Irene
Quoting stormygace:
flooding at Crabtree might smoke out the rest of the rabid foxes (trying to look on the sunny side) - looks like right now we have 2 properties at risk of leaning from Irene... shakes head & goes to bed...
would be almost too much to process... will not forget mouth guard tonight...


Are you in Raleigh? Where is your other property at? The coast I'm assuming.

So many Oak and Pine trees in Raleigh, I remember hearing chainsaws for weeks/months after Fran
3702. Dunkman
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
What time is the next model run people are waiting for? 230 ?


The Euro which is coming out right now.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Georgia to Maine.
Okay so FL is what? The South?
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:


That Charleston also?
Eye between Charleston and Mrytle Beach. If Irene hit this area, it'll be direct hit on me in Clayton.
Unfortunately, Harvey has caused 3 fatalities from its impacts in Mexico, Belize, and surrounding nations.

2:00 am Advisory Update
*Click image to enlarge
Quoting TampaMishy:
Okay so FL is what? The South?


By my estimation, yes.
3707. WxLogic
Finally ECMWF now... UKM should update soon (hopefully) and then time to sleep. :)
48 hours..

3709. WxLogic
Quoting reedzone:
48 hours..



Wow that's closer than before.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Eye between Charleston and Mrytle Beach. If Irene hit this area, it'll be direct hit on me in Clayton.


Yep...
3711. nymore
5.5 earthquake in colorado kinda odd
Quoting WxLogic:


Wow that's closer than before.


It does have data in it from recon.. It seems to be a tad west then the last run.. from what it looks to me.
ECMWF is a little farther east at 78.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Wow GFDL was the strongest western outlier... I know its only one run, but looking like florida will not take a direct hit from Irene


Yep, no Florida DOOM for you ... and the strongest part of storm is always to the right anyways...
And Euro is going on same path as HWRF/NHC track so far... Charleston to Wilmington is mostly likely landfall of Irene. However, NHC stated that their track CAN shifts 200 miles to west or east so it's still early.
Quoting KoritheMan:


By my estimation, yes.
Just messing with you. Let me go back and lurk and eat my publix chicken.
Quoting nymore:
5.5 earthquake in colorado kinda odd

It was shallow too
Quoting nymore:
5.5 earthquake in colorado kinda odd


oh boy... Yellowstone going to erupt? lol - scan the web - sure that will be all over it soon ...

IRENE up the east coast... peace
Quoting nymore:
5.5 earthquake in colorado kinda odd
When I was living in STL back then, I woke up to 5.2 earthquake in 2008. That quake centered on the border of Illinois/Indiana.
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.5
Date-Time

Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 05:46:19 UTC
Monday, August 22, 2011 at 11:46:19 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 37.137°N, 104.671°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles)
Region COLORADO
Distances 15 km (9 miles) WSW of Trinidad, Colorado
33 km (20 miles) NW of Raton, New Mexico
54 km (33 miles) S of Walsenburg, Colorado
290 km (180 miles) S of DENVER, Colorado
Quoting TampaMishy:
Just messing with you. Let me go back and lurk and eat my publix chicken.


Haha, don't worry. I can take anything anyone dishes out. I am one of the most thick skinned people ever.
Quoting 1million:


Yep, no Florida DOOM for you ... and the strongest part of storm is always to the right anyways...


I do not wish doom on Florida. I am actually in Wilmington and am more concerned with each run. Seems we could very well take a direct hit or be in the NE quadrant of a major hurricane
Quoting philliesrock:
ECMWF is a little farther east at 78.


Naa, looks the same to me.
Quoting MississippiWx:


You beat me to it, Floodman. I was going to say the same thing. LOL.


He's spooky, my friend press...LOL
Quoting 1million:


oh boy... Yellowstone going to erupt? lol - scan the web - sure that will be all over it soon ...

IRENE up the east coast... peace
I went to Yellowstone few years ago... what a beautiful national park. Grand Teton is also one of the most beautiful mountain range in lower 48. Yellowstone is a beautiful girl with ugly periods of temper...
3726. WxLogic
Looks like ECMWF might resemble GFS
3727. NCSCguy
Anyone know about how many hours out they start issuing evacuation notices?
Irene should strengthen more quickly tomorrow later today as it moves away from Hispaniola.
72 hours.. No change in track form the last run.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Haha, don't worry. I can take anything anyone dishes out. I am one of the most thick skinned people ever.
I know you have been on here for awhile.
Quoting nymore:
5.5 earthquake in colorado kinda odd


Not as much as you would think; there are a couple of fair fault zones in Colorado, some of which are more or less dormant
Quoting NCSCguy:
Anyone know about how many hours out they start issuing evacuation notices?
sadly, I have no idea. I have never been in a hurricane before and I don't live on coast.
ECMWF is pretty similar to the 12z run so far, but it's about 25-50 miles east. No big differences, though.
3734. LargoFl
Quoting RyanFSU:
GFDL = HWRF

OMG, NHC center has
Quoting NOVArules:
OMG NHC has this as a major hurricane when it hits
Quoting Floodman:


The Keys storm could be classified east coast or not; the landfall was more into the straits:



Kind of Atlantic, kind of GOM, not quite Carib...

Kind of a silly debate going on here on the previous page... but I'd say the "east coast" ends where the coast ends. The southernmost tip of mainland florida. So yes, Andrew hit on the east coast but 1935 hurricane did not if it hit on the keys.


At any rate, Irene will not make landfall as a cat 5. Waters there are simply not warm enough to support a cat 5. Even if a cat 5 did somehow make it up near the carolina coast, (as someone else said) cooler water and land interaction would weaken it near the coast BEFORE landfall.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Haha, don't worry. I can take anything anyone dishes out. I am one of the most thick skinned people ever.


You have to be to keep yourself sane on this blog.
3737. jonelu
Quoting philliesrock:
ECMWF is pretty similar to the 12z run so far, but it's about 25-50 miles east. No big differences, though.
Thats all I needed to see for a good nights sleep! Goodnight everybody!
Quoting philliesrock:
ECMWF is pretty similar to the 12z run so far, but it's about 25-50 miles east. No big differences, though.


Irene is a very large system, so very slight shifts like that by models don't mean very much early in the ballgame (right now).
3739. WxLogic
UKM Updated and pretty much in line with NHC Track.

Looks like NHC Track is good for quite sometime.
Quoting reedzone:
72 hours.. No change in track form the last run.

and Euro is one of the best model to track in recent years. GFS is 25-50 miles too far east IMO. 50 miles is enough for Wilmington landfall.
3741. DFWjc
Quoting Floodman:


Not as much as you would think; there are a couple of fair fault zones in Colorado, some of which are more or less dormant


We had a earthquake about a block north of Lone Star Park (horse racing) in Grand Praire, TX... basically in a swamp. 3 miles down.. didn't even feel it, but it was reported..
108 hours, major hurricane approaching Wilmington.
Quoting WxLogic:
UKM Updated and pretty much in line with NHC Track.

Looks like NHC Track is good for quite sometime.


Aren't we getting extra data into tomorrows runs? Maybe I missed something lol.. I like where the NHC has the track, still in my forecast cone.
Mission 7 into Irene has concluded.
Quoting philliesrock:
108 hours, major hurricane approaching Wilmington.


Damn I was hoping staying up for this run would make me feel better. Not sure if I can sleep too well hearing this before bed
Quoting Alockwr21:


Are you in Raleigh? Where is your other property at? The coast I'm assuming.

So many Oak and Pine trees in Raleigh, I remember hearing chainsaws for weeks/months after Fran


Durham county & Pleasure Island - so I am watching closely. Will be closing up Durham place tomorrow (err later today) & then heading down to the coast for big pickup/shuttering/propane delivery/generator check & hopefully time on Friday to go out to Pender county & plant a 1/2# of field peas & some late summer squash (oh & pick pears & grapes for brandy before the winds get them). That's the plan for now. Really do not like the looks of what's coming at all. May actually have to evacuate Pleasure Island. Usually we stay. Our rule is to stay through a 3 - unless it's coming in at night on a rising tide... this Sat pm looks like arrival time with a new moon on the 28th - high tide at 18:48 with a +4.86 - no, not liking this one little bit...
REPOST
Take the 12z ECMWF and 0z GFS and blend them together. That's what the 0z ECMWF is showing.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Many hurricanes weaken before landfall (except in the Caribbean) due to an increasingly hostile environment. This environment is characterized by lower SSTs near the coast, increasing vertical shear, and dry air entrainment. There is a reason why the US has only ever seen three Category 5 landfalls.

A major hurricane is still very possible, though. To be expected, in fact.


You're just full of good news this morning!!

Mornin Kori!!
3750. WxLogic
Quoting reedzone:


Aren't we getting extra data into tomorrows runs? Maybe I missed something lol.. I like where the NHC has the track, still in my forecast cone.


We should be... every 6HRs.

There was another HH sampling the E ATL and E GOM which I know couldn't have gotten into the 00Z runs so I'm pretty sure the 06Z and 12Z might reflect any changes if indeed they were that noteworthy or if Irene somehow changes unexpectedly (which could happen).
Quoting philliesrock:
108 hours, major hurricane approaching Wilmington.
Image? Angle points toward landfall can make big differences.
Quoting DFWjc:


We had a earthquake about a block north of Lone Star Park (horse racing) in Grand Praire, TX... basically in a swamp. 3 miles down.. didn't even feel it, but it was reported..


Yep...I grew up in Missouri; I was in Illinois in 68 when the Cottage Grove fault went off. What most people don't get is that the earth's crust is riddled with faults...
Hour 120, landfall in Wilmington. Headed due north.
3754. DFWjc
Quoting Floodman:


Yep...I grew up in Missouri; I was in Illinois in 68 when the Cottage Grove fault went off. What most people don't get is that the earth's crust is riddled with faults...


I think my mom told me about that one, she was in St Louis and she had to get in the door frame because of the quake...
Quoting Floodman:


Yep...I grew up in Missouri; I was in Illinois in 68 when the Cottage Grove fault went off. What most people don't get is that the earth's crust is riddled with faults...
When I was living in St. Louis, I always goes to sleep in fear of another Great New Madrid Earthquake. That fault is deadly... but you are right. We got couple of faults through Raleigh in fact.
Quoting philliesrock:
Take the 12z ECMWF and 0z GFS and blend them together. That's what the 0z ECMWF is showing.


Otherwise known as a worst-case scenario.
Quoting philliesrock:
Hour 120, landfall in Wilmington. Headed due north.
thanks for direction. Not good for me since I lives in Clayton...
How strong does it show at landfall in Wilmington?
3759. DFWjc
Hey flood, do you believe the people saying the quakes in Waco are cause by the constant draining of natural gas in that area of Texas?

Quoting Bluestorm5:
When I was living in STL back then, I woke up to 5.2 earthquake in 2008. That quake centered on the border of Illinois/Indiana.



lol, In Cali, 5.5 don't even wake us from sleep
IMO part of the problem w/ understanding what others are talking about has to do with word choice. Note carefully that NHC refers to changes in model / forecast tracks as left and right. This avoids confusion with references to direction of travel. I also think part of the trouble is with reference points. For example, I'm looking at the forecast point closest to where I live, so I may say the track shifted left. You, on the other hand, are looking at the end-of-track, and may see a right-ward shift. So specifying where in the track one sees a shift may be useful in keeping confusion to a minimum.

Of course, ymmv....
Quoting winter123:

Kind of a silly debate going on here on the previous page... but I'd say the "east coast" ends where the coast ends. The southernmost tip of mainland florida. So yes, Andrew hit on the east coast but 1935 hurricane did not if it hit on the keys.


At any rate, Irene will not make landfall as a cat 5. Waters there are simply not warm enough to support a cat 5. Even if a cat 5 did somehow make it up near the carolina coast, (as someone else said) cooler water and land interaction would weaken it near the coast BEFORE landfall.


Just making idle chit chat while waiting for the world to end, which is really what most of life is, if you think about it...LOL

As for the weakening of the storm prior to landfall, yes, most likely, depending on forward speed and the organization of the storm. Never say never...
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
How strong does it show at landfall in Wilmington?


Major hurricane
After landfall, the ECMWF mauls inland areas with flooding rain and wind.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
How strong does it show at landfall in Wilmington?

960mb...high-end cat. 2 probably.
Does anyone know how bad it is in northern hispaniola tonight? I know they are not as "wired" of a nation as Puerto rico... I guess at the very least we'll see images of the damage later tomorrow? They're on the weaker side of the storm, but are definitely getting (at least) TS winds sustained, much stronger on higher terrain and heavy rain.

Edit: Can't even find any recent news about hispaniola, all the stories just say it's headed that way (future tense).
While normally not particularly active, there are approximately 100 potentially active faults in Colorado and more than 400 temblors of magnitude 2.5 have occurred in the state since 1870. The state’s largest quake occurred on November 7, 1882 along the northern Front Range and measured 6.5 on the Richter Scale.

According to the Colorado Division of Emergency Management, the costliest quake was a 5.3 magnitude temblor that occurred on August 9, 1967 and was centered near Commerce City. The quake caused more than $1 million worth of damage and is thought to have been caused by the injection of liquid waste into the earth at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal.

So much for sleeping tonight
The only 0z models showing a recurve away from land are the CMC and the NOGAPS. With that being said, I'm pretty confident the landfall point will be somewhere in the Carolinas as a pretty bad hurricane, and the latest ECMWF run has strengthened that opinion. Well, I'm off to bed...goodnight, folks.
3769. RyanFSU
yikes, 925 mb => Cat 4 ~5

Have a great night, philliesrock!
3771. Levi32
Quoting philliesrock:

960mb...high-end cat. 2 probably.


It's lower than that....Plymouth state doesn't give you central pressure at the resolution that it should. Dr. Maue's image is more accurate down at 925mb, a scary depiction shown by the ECMWF. The track stays west similar to the 12z.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I do not wish doom on Florida. I am actually in Wilmington and am more concerned with each run. Seems we could very well take a direct hit or be in the NE quadrant of a major hurricane


You live in a beautiful place and I wish you all the best! Batten down the hatches and take good care of yourself. ♥
Quoting philliesrock:
The only 0z models showing a recurve away from land are the CMC and the NOGAPS. With that being said, I'm pretty confident the landfall point will be somewhere in the Carolinas as a pretty bad hurricane, and the latest ECMWF run has strengthened that opinion. Well, I'm off to bed...goodnight, folks.


NOGAPS is no longer recurving away from land on the 00Z.. Look it up. Has it scraping Florida and landfall in SC
00Z NOGAPS
Morning all. Interesting that the HWRF is now the western outlier, and the GFS parks a hurricane over the OBX for over a day.
Quoting RyanFSU:
yikes, 925 mb => Cat 4 ~5

well since it's late in night....

oh s***, all models are showing Category 3/4 into Carolinas tonight.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
NHC is doing great job with this storm so far... not good news for me, as I'm in SE Raleigh.


I'm a little north of Raleigh and I got slammed by Fran. I do not want this storm to follow Fran's track. Then again, I don't want it to follow Floyd's or Hazel's or Donna's or...

I would like it to go out to sea? Pretty please?

BTW: Some advice to the new people--I'm a long time lurker on this board and I think it's pretty clear that there are some really talented and serious people here. People who take the idea of predicting a storm's path way beyond calling it a mere hobby.

And then there are the trolls who like to simply throw predictions out with no supporting data to upset people, and get the people to panic.

For the new people, if someone is just flinging guesses around that go against the NHC forecast, check their data. Most of the serious people in the board have no issues "showing there work."

As for people who live inland in North Carolina, check your hurricane kits, make sure the batteries are less than two years old, make sure you have your bug spray, candles, camp stove, and radio are in working condition, but wait for the 5:00 AM forecast on Wednesday before you buy the extra water.

Also remember that power is restored to hospitals, police, and prisons, then cities, towns, villages, and then the rural areas. So if you live out in the boonies it could be 2 to 6 weeks before the power is restored. One last thing, when you fill up your bathtubs use plumber's tape on the stoppers so you have a water tight steal. The tape comes off when you finish using the water.

I know there is a good list of stuff to have and remember to do somewhere online, I just don't know where.

Good luck everyone! I'm back to lurking.
3777. Levi32
Quoting philliesrock:
108 hours, major hurricane approaching Wilmington.
108 could be still stuck. instead of hispanola it could be cuba
3779. Levi32
Nightmare for New England.

Quoting Levi32:
Nightmare for New England.



If this is the scenario which occurs it will be a total catastrophe.

Hurricane force southeast winds up both the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. Right into New York Harbor. Inland wind damage. Coastal wind destruction. Near-record/record storm surges. Crippling rainfall across the interior (over saturated soil in the NE).

Could be one of the worst ever in terms of insured losses.
Quoting dukeuncluver:


I'm a little north of Raleigh and I got slammed by Fran. I do not want this storm to follow Fran's track. Then again, I don't want it to follow Floyd's or Hazel's or Donna's or...

I would like it to go out to sea? Pretty please?

BTW: Some advice to the new people--I'm a long time lurker on this board and I think it's pretty clear that there are some really talented and serious people here. People who take the idea of predicting a storm's path way beyond calling it a mere hobby.

And then there are the trolls who like to simply throw predictions out with no supporting data to upset people, and get the people to panic.

For the new people, if someone is just flinging guesses around that go against the NHC forecast, check their data. Most of the serious people in the board have no issues "showing there work."

As for people who live inland in North Carolina, check your hurricane kits, make sure the batteries are less than two years old, make sure you have your bug spray, candles, camp stove, and radio are in working condition, but wait for the 5:00 AM forecast on Wednesday before you buy the extra water.

Also remember that power is restored to hospitals, police, and prisons, then cities, towns, villages, and then the rural areas. So if you live out in the boonies it could be 2 to 6 weeks before the power is restored. One last thing, when you fill up your bathtubs use plumber's tape on the stoppers so you have a water tight steal. The tape comes off when you finish using the water.

I know there is a good list of stuff to have and remember to do somewhere online, I just don't know where.

Good luck everyone! I'm back to lurking.
yea, I noticed that there is 3 classes on here: lurker, trolls, and experts. I'm actually try my best posting real forecasts, but since I'm new to hurricane forecasting I can make mistakes.
3782. Levi32
We shall see what insights tomorrow brings. Goodnight.
Ok folks here's my opinion.
The 00z models that contain a lot of upper atmosphere data are narrowing in on two solutions.
The HWRF and GFDL are finally in agreement and along with the Euro bring Irene ashore between Charleston and Wilmington.

The GFS, CMC, and other global models favor an outer banks brush or full recurve. The GFS brings Irene over Long Island.

Given this I believe Florida is a less likely impact and the Carolinas most likely.

The Bahamas, regardless, should feel Irene's full force compared to anywhere else.

My call for the center to pass over.
Carolina impact 55%
Full recurve 35%
New England 7%
Florida 3%
Quoting Levi32:
We shall see what insights tomorrow brings. Goodnight.



Did I ever tell you that you could use my graphics in your videos if you wanted to?
Quoting dukeuncluver:


I'm a little north of Raleigh and I got slammed by Fran. I do not want this storm to follow Fran's track. Then again, I don't want it to follow Floyd's or Hazel's or Donna's or...

I would like it to go out to sea? Pretty please?

BTW: Some advice to the new people--I'm a long time lurker on this board and I think it's pretty clear that there are some really talented and serious people here. People who take the idea of predicting a storm's path way beyond calling it a mere hobby.

And then there are the trolls who like to simply throw predictions out with no supporting data to upset people, and get the people to panic.

For the new people, if someone is just flinging guesses around that go against the NHC forecast, check their data. Most of the serious people in the board have no issues "showing there work."

As for people who live inland in North Carolina, check your hurricane kits, make sure the batteries are less than two years old, make sure you have your bug spray, candles, camp stove, and radio are in working condition, but wait for the 5:00 AM forecast on Wednesday before you buy the extra water.

Also remember that power is restored to hospitals, police, and prisons, then cities, towns, villages, and then the rural areas. So if you live out in the boonies it could be 2 to 6 weeks before the power is restored. One last thing, when you fill up your bathtubs use plumber's tape on the stoppers so you have a water tight steal. The tape comes off when you finish using the water.

I know there is a good list of stuff to have and remember to do somewhere online, I just don't know where.

Good luck everyone! I'm back to lurking.
btw, it can get that bad??? Wow... I'm glad that grocery/tools mixed store is across the street, but I doubt it'll be well stocked. At least we got our boat inland... I've been to Carolina Beach so many time and it's not well protected from hurricanes :\
I'm going as well... be safe, Bahamas bloggers!!!
3787. RyanFSU
Here are the last 17-wind swaths for HWRF for 97L - Irene (the animation will continue to update, until Irene is gone)


Quoting RyanFSU:
yikes, 925 mb => Cat 4 ~5

yikes indeed

evening everyone
where'd everyone go?
Quoting DFWjc:


I think my mom told me about that one, she was in St Louis and she had to get in the door frame because of the quake...


Yeah, it was weird...no one knew what was going on; my cousin had been though a couple in Cali and told what had happened
testing testing??
eye is forming in my very not professional opinion. lol.
I'm in here, anybody want to chat about our cane?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
15:00 PM JST August 23 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located near 15.6N 127.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 16.0N 127.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
is the data from the dropsondes already being reflected in the most recent track forecast?
Quoting TomTaylor:
where'd everyone go?


That's what I'm wondering.....I have seen this blog crazy this time of morning when there was just an invest out there.....now potentially major on the way and DEAD...lol
Quoting StarnzMet:
I'm in here, anybody want to chat about our cane?


hello....
Quoting Yamil1989:
testing testing??


Oh no I can hear the annoying buzz and the dude saying "This is a test of the emergency broadcast system. Had this been an actual emergency you'd have been given instructions to place your head between your knees and kiss your ass goodbye".
3800. Dunkman
Quoting surfsidesindy:
is the data from the dropsondes already being reflected in the most recent track forecast?


I couldn't speculate to that, but the current NHC track was released before any of the models that assimilated the data ran. Did they take, for instance, the data from the dropsondes that indicated that the ridge to the west was stronger than it has been modeled and factor that into their forecast track? I have no idea.
Quoting StarnzMet:
I'm in here, anybody want to chat about our cane?


Not really. There really isn't much talk of tropical weather here. Just kidding I'm all ears, lay it on me.
19.3n68.1w, 19.7n68.7w have been re-evaluated&altered for H.Irene's_6amGMT_ATCF
19.3n68.0w, 19.7n68.7w, 20.1n69.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 22August_6amGMT and ending 23August_6amGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 11.8mph(19k/h) on a heading of 293.1degrees(WNW)
H.Irene was headed toward passage between Inagua&LittleInagua,Bahamas ~18hours from now

Copy&paste 18.2n65.9w-18.9n67.0w, 18.9n67.0w-19.3n68.0w, 19.3n68.0w-19.7n68.7w, 19.7n68.7w-20.1n69.7w, iga, 19.7n68.7w-21.37n73.01w, ggt into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 23August_12amGMT)
Irene is looking much better (...or worse for the US) tonight


Water Vapor



Infrared



Infrared-Watervapor





Analysis

Cloud tops are very cold (-80c to -90c zone) over the core which indicates deep convection and overshooting tops (signaled by the negative IR-WV values) favor further strengthening of the core. Outflow to the west has dramatically improved as well as seen by the streaking upper level clouds shooting out westward on the west side of the storm. Upper convergence on the west side (and resulting dry air in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere) does remain a slight issue as the trough pushes air toward Irene in the upper levels of the atmosphere. However, since convection has been exploding under a very warm ocean, and otherwise favorable upper level environment, Irene has literally pushed the convergent zone further from herself meaning dry air and upper level convergence on the west side are becoming less of an issue (although it never was a significant issue). There is also an area of warmer cloud tops to the east and south of the center of the storm. I'm thinking this is a result of air coming off the high mountains over central Hispaniola, sinking in the process. The sinking warms and dries the lower atmosphere, creating a less unstable environment, favoring less convection. This would explain the 1/4 ring of warmer cloud tops to the SE. Other than that band of warm cloud tops to the SE and the convergence aloft far to the west, the upper outflow is exceptional around the rest of the system, dry air and shear are non-issues, the system is vertically stacked, the core consists of very deep convection, and an eye should begin to show itself soon.


Environment and Intensity Forecast

Irene will continue to intensify under very warm sea surface temperatures as well as the significant depth of the 26c isotherm (SST SST depth = TCHP, so in other words, TCHP is ample). Land interaction from Hispaniola will remain a little bit of an issue, however, this won't cause the storm to weaken. If anything it will just prevent the storm from bombing out over the next 24 hrs. Shear will remain moderate over the forecast period, however, given the strong low pressure, this shear will not prevent this system from becoming vertically stacked so it really isn't an issue. Upper divergence will remain a slight issue over the next couple of days, but it is forecasted to improve as the trough lifts out by tomorrow, and therefore upper divergence should be better by the end of the week.

In summary, Irene will continue to strengthen. Slowly for the next day due to Hispaniola and upper convergence to the west. However, as upper divergence improves and Irene moves away from Hispaniola, warm SSTs and TCHP will allow Irene to become a major hurricane. Slight weakening could occur as TCHP and SSTs drop a little off of north Florida (Irene will be here around Friday). However, strengthening could occur just before landfall due to the warmer SSTs and TCHP in the Gulf Stream current.

Looking at the hi-resolution models, (GFDL and HWRF) they support the idea of a storm gradually strengthening at first due to reasons already mentioned. Then bombing out as those conditions improve. Then weakening very slightly under cooler SSTs and less TCHP on Friday (keep in mind they both have Irene as a cat 5 at the time). Then strengthening very slightly again just before landfall due to the Gulf Stream. The ECMWF and GFS also support the idea of a storm strengthening before landfall.

TCHP




Also, as far as peak intensity, a category 5 hurricane looks likely at the moment. Yes, I said it. Hi-res models (GFDL & HWRF), the most reliable global models (GFS & ECMWF), as well as the oceanic (SST & TCHP) and upper atmospheric (divergence & shear) environment support this idea. This forecast may not verify, and Irene may have some other problems we are not aware of, but at the very least, I expect a category 4.


Track Forecast

As far as track...it's headed for the East Coast. There's a slight chance it will miss, but a greater chance it will come close to Florida and Georgia, make landfall in the Carolinas and then get pulled up across the rest of the eastern seaboard (mid-Atlantic states and New England states).


East coasters, and folks living in the Bahamas please begin your preparations now. Thoughts and prayers go out to those in the poorer nations of Haiti and the Dominican Republic which are getting slammed by rain right now.
TomTaylor "where'd everyone go?
3797 traumaboyy "That's what I'm wondering.....I have seen this blog crazy this time of morning when there was just an invest out there.....now potentially major on the way and DEAD...lol "

That's the thing, people go crazy over Invests. Cuz they're DOOM that can hit ANYWHERE...
...then the TropicalDisturbances spoil it all by becoming mere hurricanes heading toward some mere somewheres.
So what would have to happen for the caine to hit FL? I mean Im not trying to be negative, just trying to know what to look for, indicators or such.

Would a ridge or trough have to remain or break down?

Sory im not a weather expert.
Quoting Dunkman:


I couldn't speculate to that, but the current NHC track was released before any of the models that assimilated the data ran. Did they take, for instance, the data from the dropsondes that indicated that the ridge to the west was stronger than it has been modeled and factor that into their forecast track? I have no idea.


Thanks, that's what I was thinking. Can't sleep here in East Central FL and guess it's going to be that way until that thing gets past 28 degrees N.
3807. Acorna
I'll come out of lurking to talk with y'all. I just never feel like I have anything substantial to add to the conversation. :P Watching Irene closely...in Jacksonville, NC here. Watching the all-too-familiar model shift from SC...to SC/NC Border...to Wilmington..to Onslow/Carteret county or the OBX. Hoping that she just grazes us though if she decides to come say hello.
3808. scott39
Do the most recent GFS or ECMWF runs take Irene any futher E or W than the 8/22 6Z?
Quoting Orlando11:
eye is forming in my very not professional opinion. lol.
Agreed.

Quoting aspectre:
That's the thing, people go crazy over Invests. Cuz they're DOOM...
...then then the TropicalDisturbances spoil it all by becoming mere hurricanes.


Sad but True!
can someone please help me? why can I only see about half the posts? I don't have anyone on ignore.

I had to "show" tom's analysis just to get it. plus Tampaspin who was always a good contributer back in the day.

help with this? I want all the posts to show up. Thank you
Quoting Orlando11:
can someone please help me? why can I only see about half the posts? I don't have anyone on ignore.

I had to "show" tom's analysis just to get it. plus Tampaspin who was always a good contributer back in the day.

help with this? I want all the posts to show up. Thank you


Orlando I had the same problem, I had to click the filter drop down button at the top and change it to show all posts or show posts.
interesting there is another large amplitude wave it seems at 50w just alittle convection so far
Quoting Orlando11:
can someone please help me? why can I only see about half the posts? I don't have anyone on ignore.

I had to "show" tom's analysis just to get it. plus Tampaspin who was always a good contributer back in the day.

help with this? I want all the posts to show up. Thank you


Edit Your Profile, Orlando11

Viewing Comment "Show All"
Check out the NOAA HFIP experimental HWRF.

Re-post from Skypony last night. Thank you Sky.

Back to bed. Have a nice night, night crew.

Link
3817. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Do the most recent GFS or ECMWF runs take Irene any futher E or W than the 8/22 6Z?
Anyone know this?TIA
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Edit Your Profile, Orlando11

Viewing Comment "Show All"


thank you X10,000
Quoting scooster67:
Check out the NOAA HFIP experimental HWRF.

Re-post from Skypony last night. Thank you Sky.

Back to bed. Have a nice night, night crew.

Link


it's not nice to tell people in FL to watch that and then go back to bed, which is where I need to head!
could be a evac. in our area if she keeps coming west like the gfdl is hanging on to
you're welcome
Quoting scott39:
Do the most recent GFS or ECMWF runs take Irene any futher E or W than the 8/22 6Z?
not sure what you're asking, but you can see for yourself at Dr. Maue's website or at Allan Huffman's website
Quoting scooster67:
Check out the NOAA HFIP experimental HWRF.

Re-post from Skypony last night. Thank you Sky.

Back to bed. Have a nice night, night crew.

Link


*falls over*..... That would take out the Harley Shop in Daytona... where will I cruise my bike to now? (Note: This is a sarcastic post dont freak out on me, no I dont want anything to hit FL.)
Anyone care to talk about possible impacts to the mid-Atlantic/ Northeast?

After seeing the latest GFS:

And the latest Euro:

I think we have something to talk about
Quoting TomTaylor:
Agreed.


That last wobble looked a little south of due west?

3826. Dunkman
Quoting scott39:
Do the most recent GFS or ECMWF runs take Irene any futher E or W than the 8/22 6Z?


8/23 0z GFS hits the OBX, 8/23 0z Euro hits just east of Wilmington, 8/23 0z UKMET hits Wilmington.
3827. scott39
The trough that is going to cause a weakness in the high, seems to look like it is flowing W to E instead of SW to NE. I think this would cause the trough to flatten out and not have that much of a negative impact on the high. This could cause more of a WNW trend with Irenes path. I think this is right? IMO
3828. Dunkman
Quoting scooster67:

That last wobble looked a little south of due west?



I mean it's possible, but more likely just the infrared satellite playing tricks with us.
Anyone in here from FL?
Quoting TampaBayWX:
Anyone in here from FL?


East Central beachside. I'm afraid since the shuttle program has ended that NASA has turned off the very expensive hurricane deflector shields.
My Blog on Irene

For those interested. It's pretty much the same as comment 3803, but I figured I'd post it anyway.
3833. scott39
Quoting Dunkman:


8/23 0z GFS hits the OBX, 8/23 0z Euro hits just east of Wilmington, 8/23 0z UKMET hits Wilmington.
Thanks, I was wanting to know if these runs were any futher E or W from the runs before the most recent
Quoting TampaBayWX:
Anyone in here from FL?


Northwest!!
last storm the gfdl nailed was ernesto the other models had him way over in the western carib. while he stuck and moved very slowly near hispanola. its still mid aug. it will be take a strong pull to get irene away from those big islands.
Quoting scott39:
The trough that is going to cause a weakness in the high, seems to look like it is flowing W to E instead of SW to NE. I think this would cause the trough to flatten out and not have that much of a negative impact on the high. This could cause more of a WNW trend with Irenes path. I think this is right? IMO


Scott interesting idea... I think this needs to be investigated more to see really how much of an impact it will have on the high....

Makes sense....
3837. scott39
Quoting TampaBayWX:


Scott interesting idea... I think this needs to be investigated more to see really how much of an impact it will have on the high....

Makes sense....
can you see on the water vapor loop?
Quoting Dunkman:


I mean it's possible, but more likely just the infrared satellite playing tricks with us.


I'm sure your'e right. It's probably just its interaction with Hispaniola. Sure seems to be going more west than expected the last 4 hours or so.!?
Quoting surfsidesindy:


East Central beachside. I'm afraid since the shuttle program has ended that NASA has turned off the very expensive hurricane deflector shields.


LOL Hope not!! Major skirting up the east coast of Florida would be an Insurance nightmare!!
Quoting TampaBayWX:
So what would have to happen for the caine to hit FL? I mean Im not trying to be negative, just trying to know what to look for, indicators or such.

Would a ridge or trough have to remain or break down?

Sory im not a weather expert.


Not an expert, either, but it would obviously have to start tracking west of the forecst points.

This would happen if the Bermuda high pressure region were to become unexpectedly stronger.

Miami is still on the edge of the NHC cone.
Quoting scott39:
can you see on the water vapor loop?


Yeah look at it here....
Quoting scooster67:

That last wobble looked a little south of due west?

Honestly, it's hard to say what the center is doing since we don't have a true eye yet, nor do we have radar.

However, if we were to use just satellite imagery, then yes, it does appear that your observation may be true.

Still, it's really hard to say if that is true since we do not know if that is actually the eye or just an area of warmer cloud tops.
3843. scott39
Quoting scott39:
can you see on the water vapor loop?
Look at the trough coming down,then look at the dry air with it. It looks to be flatning out, W to E.
Quoting yonzabam:


Not an expert, either, but it would obviously have to start tracking west of the forecst points.

This would happen if the Bermuda high pressure region were to become unexpectedly stronger.

Miami is still on the edge of the NHC cone.


Whats the likleyhood of the High becoming stronger??? I mean does that happen often?

Thanks for the info bro
Quoting traumaboyy:


LOL Hope not!! Major skirting up the east coast of Florida would be an Insurance nightmare!!


And we already HAVE an insurance nightmare over here and has been that way since 2004. I went through David as a teen. Can't even imagine that scenario with Irene.
3846. scott39
Quoting TampaBayWX:


Yeah look at it here....
If I am right. This may be a game changer in the track.
Quoting scott39:
Look at the trough coming down,then look at the dry air with it. It looks to be flatning out, W to E.


Yeah will be interesting to see what it looks like in the next 6 - 12 hours ya know?
3848. scott39
Quoting TampaBayWX:


Yeah will be interesting to see what it looks like in the next 6 - 12 hours ya know?
very!
i have been living in e cen fl. now for about 30 yrs only reason we live here is my wife and family are from here. otherwise i'd be living back in the west where im from. this community here has been hit hard with the shuttle shutdown its hard to be told you are not needed no more.
Quoting surfsidesindy:


And we already HAVE an insurance nightmare over here and has been that way since 2004. I went through David as a teen. Can't even imagine that scenario with Irene.


I am afraid that uncle sam may be broke.....so this could kill many large insurance companies!! You mentioned David, My grandfather slept through David in a Sailboat.....or so he told us!!
3851. LargoFl
Quoting traumaboyy:


Northwest!!
Pinellas
Look how big Irene is getting.... huge storm... :-(

Click here for the water vapor view of the Atlantic
Quoting TampaBayWX:


Yeah look at it here....


This is a good one to look at it too

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Post 3824:

No matter how you look at it, that EURO solution is the doom scenario for the Northeast. It basically suggest that the NE quadrant of the storm would rake the Northeastern coastline, bringing the strongest winds and surge to highly populated region.

Quoting LargoFl:
Pinellas


Largo I live near 4th street and Gandy :-)
Quoting islander101010:
i have been living in e cen fl. now for about 30 yrs only reason we live here is my wife and family are from here. otherwise i'd be living back in the west where im from. this community here has been hit hard with the shuttle shutdown its hard to be told you are not needed no more.


yep. And I don't think a hurricane is going to help. I will say though, my husband works for a small commercial door and window company and 2004 was a very good year for them...HOWEVER, not wishing this storm on anyone, anywhere.
3857. LargoFl
Quoting TampaBayWX:


Largo I leave near 4th street and Gandy :-)
wow we are close, im off east bay drive
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


This is a good one to look at it too

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


WX Grl thank you!
Quoting LargoFl:
wow we are close, im off east bay drive


Yeah your about 4 miles from me...
Quoting traumaboyy:


I am afraid that uncle sam may be broke.....so this could kill many large insurance companies!! You mentioned David, My grandfather slept through David in a Sailboat.....or so he told us!!


My husband slept through a tornado as a teen, with the window blown in on him and everything, so I guess your grandpa could "sleep" through a cane!
3862. LargoFl
Quoting TampaBayWX:
Look how big Irene is getting.... huge storm... :-(

Click here for the water vapor view of the Atlantic
man its growing in size
3863. ABlass
New Blog
Quoting TampaBayWX:


WX Grl thank you!


No problem :)
Quoting surfsidesindy:


yep. And I don't think a hurricane is going to help. I will say though, my husband works for a small commercial door and window company and 2004 was a very good year for them...HOWEVER, not wishing this storm on anyone, anywhere.
i am sure glad the nhc know what they are doing. hope they are well paid. can you imagine the pressure of getting this right? .
Dr Master's just posted a new blog, we are all posting under that one now so if this one seems dead.. thats why :-p

Link to the new blog.
Hey Everyone! Just a young mind with plenty of knowledge looking to learn more! No trolling from me!!! Lol.
Irene will miss the U.S
3869. 996tt
She is going to wind up pretty quickly and become soarge she can almost create her steering through influencing what ever weak and trough and ridge may be present. I have to say the models with the Eastern outliers are looking more reasonable. No one let their guard down, but a direct hit with CONUS seems unlikely with forecasted strengthening. Maybe it will stay far enough off shore for us to follow it up the coast and find some epic swells. Waxing my board and rearranging calendar at work.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
Irene will miss the U.S


Didn't you have it hitting Florida last night?
Holy Cow! I'm sitting her worrying about Irene, and suddenly an earthquake shook my house VIOLENTLY for 15 seconds. I'm in Seaside Heights, New Jersey. It was the scariest thing ever. It was centered in Virginia. No damage here, except for a couple of things fell off the walls and stuff. In all my wildest imagination, I didn't think that we'd have an earthquake here, let alone an earthquake and a potential hurricane in the same week. The ground stopped, but I'm STILL SHAKING.
3872. Pj3
Surface water temperatures along the Atlantic coast would
seem to be higher than usual which can/will only add energy
to what looks to be a dangerous storm.