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Hurricane Irene Approaches the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:42 AM GMT on August 24, 2011

As of 2AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 21.3N, 72.6W, 400 miles southeast of Nassau. It was moving west-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 966 mb. Hurricane warnings have been issued for all of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the Dominican Republic border.

Satellite Views
Figure 1 shows that Irene has a large eye visible in infrared imagery, (26 miles across accoring to a report from the Hurricane Hunters at 130AM) with well-defined outflow cirrus bands. Tuesday evening, TRMM, NASA's tropical research satellite, flew directly overhead Irene, getting a radar scan of the storm using it's downward pointing radar, shown in Figure 2. It is immediately apparent that Irene has well-developed bands of rain showers, with strong storms present in the eyewall.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 113AM EDT, August 23, 2011


Figure 2 TRMM radar overpass of Irene at 713PM EDT, August 22, 2011. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to move to the northwest, passing over all of the Bahamas by Thursday evening, then curving to the north. Irene then makes landfall in the US near or at the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon, then traveling along the mid-Atlantic coastline of the US. After Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to Long Island and the New England coastline. However, NHC is quick to remind us that the average forecast error for day 4 is 200 miles, so don't stop your hurricane preparations if you aren't in the immediate area of landfall. It is also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large, affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from Irene's center on Friday afternoon.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a major hurricane (winds faster than 110 mph), within 24 hours.


Figure 3 Official track forecast of Irene at 2AM EDT.

Forecast models and adaptive observations
The different forecast models are in fairly good agreement about Irene's track through the Bahamas and along the east coast of the US. The GFDL, a dynamical hurricane forecasting model, which had been a western outlier from the other models is now agreeing with them. When a set of weather models using slighly different initial views of the atmosphere and slightly different ways of simulating how the atmosphere works all agree on a forecast, then meteorlogists tend to believe that the forecast is more likely to occur. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF (wind swath shown in Figure 4) forecasts are nearly identical, which furthur boosts forecaster confidence.

In the 11PM forecast discussion, the NHC forecaster praises the NOAA Gulfstream IV (aka Gonzo) for providing infomation about the atmosphere around Irene that will influence it's track. Looking at the plan of the day valid for today, it will be a busy day for airborne reconnaissance. Three flights for the Air Force hurricane hunters, two flights for the Gulfstream IV, and two flights for NOAA 42, a WP-3D (aka Kermit).


Figure 4 Plot of the maximum sustained winds in mph over the next week from the 00Z ECMWF forecast.

Impacts

In the immediate future, Irene will have a significant impact on the Bahamas and surrounding islands. Hurricane force winds are ongoing over the Turks and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas. These locations can expect storm surges that are 5-8 feet above tide levels. The northwestern Bahamas can expect hurricane force winds Thursday, and storm surges that are 7-11 feet above tide levels. The Turks and Caicos islands and all of the Bahamas can expect 6-12 inches of rain over the next two days.

I still think people living along the east coast of the US should closely monitor Irene and review their hurricane preparations. Irene will be a large storm, impacting areas far from the storm center track.

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.4°N 73.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Quoting yonzabam:
That's THREE times I've tried to put Jason on ignore, because his embedded youtube vid is mucking up the blog on IE and he's still there! Can't get rid of him.


Dont hate on the guy too much. He is clearly one of those individuals with "Special Needs"
Quoting alvarig1263:


The atlantic ridge is buidling back west stronger and quicker than had been expected over the past few days. With Irene's slow speed of 9 MPH and a ridge building west, and the texas ridge also pulling out to the west it could allow Irene to move closer to FL, though a direct landfall is not likely.

Exactly. And latest indications are that she could in fact moves even slower, which would make her more vulnerable to the aforementioned.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


aprox 450 miles


THAT'S what I'm lookin' for!!! Thanks!
Quoting presslord:
you should all ignore Floodman...that guy's nothin' but trouble...


Oh yeah? Well...well...you're ugly and your mom dresses you funny...

On the other hand, I'd imagine you're happy you don't live on Ocracoke...
Irene jumps west in latest frame right towards Crooked and Acklins islands

Irene Rainbow Loop
Quoting HiWay:
How true is it that a storm keeps it's surge based of of its maximum intensity and for how long? I'm sure it must diminish some. Historically, Katrina being the most notable example weakened significantly before landfall but had the surge or very close to the surge generated from it's peak intensity.
Katrina's surge was the result of radius of winds (Ike's, too) far more than past intensity.

As a professional in the field of storm surge modeling, I can tell you that the "cat 5 surge due to previous intensity" is a myth.
In the last 8 hours Irene has move 1.1 degrees North by 1.3 degrees west.

02 am position 21.3 North 72.6 West
10 am position 22.4 North 73.9 West

Quoting Floodman:


Exactly; all that "I'm a man and a man don't leave his stuff" can end actually meaning "A man has to die with his stuff when he don't understand limitations"


'I have NEVER seen a Macho dead man,' was what I would say to guys who wanted to come off all manly like they could take sitting out a 'cane. Someone quoted Ron White late last night, but it bears repeating - "It's not that the wind is blowing, it'swhat the wind is blowing."
000
WTNT24 KNHC 241438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


No problem press :)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Well if you don't like the current 5 day cone for actual tropical cyclones, you are going to hate the possible introduction next year of a 5 day Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).

CAUTION: 11 megabyte pdf file
Possible Genesis Enhancements


sometimes 'something' is worse than 'nothing'...some things really don't need to be improved upon
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly. And latest indications are that she could in fact moves even slower, which would make her more vulnerable to the aforementioned.


I've been saying this could happen for the past 24 hours but many berated me for even mentioning FL. Let's see if anything comes of it...
In fact we have another west jog in progress..That weakness is not going to last for too much longer


Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly. And latest indications are that she could in fact moves even slower, which would make her more vulnerable to the aforementioned.
1020. HCW
IF anybody needs Wind info for there location + duration of the winds please let me know


1110 miles....does anyone know about the storm surge models?
1024. HiWay
Quoting atmoaggie:
Katrina's surge was the result of radius of winds (Ike's, too) far more than past intensity.

As a professional in the field of storm surge modeling, I can tell you that the "cat 5 surge due to previous intensity" is a myth.


Thank you. So the larger the wind field, especially a wide swath of strong winds instead of a small area of intense winds is far more telling for a large surge?
Quoting mojofearless:


After all the bashing New Orleanians got for not getting out, not being prepared, blah blah blah, it just really yanks my chain to see people like you on here talking about wasting money on supplies, etc etc etc.
YOU LIVE IN A HURRICANE-PRONE AREA. Just like I do. And it is YOUR responsibility to be prepared and self sufficient year after year after year. You should not be whining about wasting money, or glad that you didn't (it's peak season!!!), you should have this budgeted out EVERY year, and you should already have the majority of your supplies stocked by June 1.
I don't mean to come across like a shrew here, but seriously. This is the personal responsibility everyone along the Gulf Coast and Eastern seaboard should be taking seriously every single year. To do otherwise would be like living in Detroit without a snow shovel and sweating every single cold front. Oh! Thank God I didn't waste money on a snow shovel! That blizzard totally missed us and hit Flynt instead! Stupid meteorologists!


If Irene hits major cities in the east, causing billions of dollars in damage, will the rest of the country bash them for living in hurricane prone areas? Will they cry, don't fix it? Will we hear, "We don't need NYC, Boston, etc?"

Those very words were said to those of us living in Louisiana. It didn't matter that NOLA survived Katrina, the levees failing is what brought the city down.

I pray those on the East Coast don't have to deal with Irene and her aftermath.
You bashed us, our way of life. We want only for you to survive and not have to deal with what we did. God be with you.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Katrina's surge was the result of radius of winds (Ike's, too) far more than past intensity.

As a professional in the field of storm surge modeling, I can tell you that the "cat 5 surge due to previous intensity" is a myth.



The larger the area of intense winds over a shallow body of water, the more water you're able to pile up...
Why is it only the US that ends up getting two intermediate advisories?
1028. 996tt
Quoting RickWPB:
I think the NHC do a great job. We need to remember that Wx prediction is not an exact science. It's fluid with lots of variables. We have computer models that help speed up the analysis, but we need the PhD's to make the final word. I thank them for their service.

Interesting to note that so far in this satellite/radar loop that Irene is tracking slightly to the right of the cone center line.

14 hr loop


They really are. NHC has gotten much better in just the last couple of years. I think they err on leaving the cone touching shore though on storms like this due to duty to public and politics if they don't warn. That being said, I would imagine the NHC individuals would have this storm even further East and off shore if off record.

The Weather Channel, on the other hand, are a bunch drama queens whose job is to over-hype anything and everything to get people to tune in. Even their tone and inflection (especially the big boned shrilly voice Abrahms) is specifically directed at evoking emotion, fear or excitment. This is exactly why she has the slot she has is her ability to stir emotion and captivate the viewer. Has nothing to do with actual weather.
Quoting Misogynist:
I think everyone should embrace the bickering and debate. A public that is engaged is a lot more likely to finance the research that may one day get a handle on Weather Forecasting.


Hardly. Winston Churchill said that the biggest argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.

Engaging the public in a scientific debate is like trying to discuss the weather with an angry swarm of bees. The bees don't understand, and you're most likely to get stung.

The general public does not have the knowledge and/or experience to make informed decisions about where scientific funding should go or how much. The growing anti-science and anti-intellectual movement has done a good job of creating an environment where "scientists are not to be trusted". That undermines ALL scientific endeavors, not just the ones you may or may not agree with. Just take a sampling of this blog, or look at the recent idiocy in cutting NOAA funding. Uninformed people (and sometimes even informed people) do not make good decisions.

Perhaps I'm just overly cynical, but when it comes to matters of science the general public is not a good judge. All it takes is a good FUD campaign and it seems like you can even convince people that gravity doesn't exist.

I think the general public should be more educated when it comes to science. Public outreach, programs, etc. are good at engaging the public. But until our population is more well informed when it comes to science, they should leave the decisions to people with more knowledge and experience on the subject.
1030. Gorty
Not liking this, Irene sped up and is going NW. I wonder how she will be affected the trough now.
Quoting flsky:
Go to Google Maps and get directions between the two - it will give you the mileage.



Mileage isn't the same as longitudinal distance; roads turn and twist and add distance
Quoting alvarig1263:


I've been saying this could happen for the past 24 hours but many berated me for even mentioning FL. Let's see if anything comes of it...

Yep. Stick to your forecast. It's still a possibility.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

Forget the cone. If you're within this range from the eye, prepare accordingly.
Quoting Cotillion:
Why is it only the US that ends up getting two intermediate advisories?


Internal favoritism....
1035. air360
Cat 4 Forecast! Slight East shift passing NC though

Can someone let me know what the current DOOM:CON level is? I haven't seen an update and with the Gulf Coast and Florida out of the picture, I would expect a substantial easing of the DOOM:CON. Heck maybe the lowest (safest) level of DOOM, what with this being a "fish storm" now. (Despite it hitting multiple islands already, currently hitting an island nation, and forecast to possibly hit the northeast or outer banks).

1038. dmh1026
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Admin please do something about Jason, This is becoming a problem.

I un-poofed him...What a mistake!!!
Presslord, according to my calculations on Google Earth it's NY is approx. 390 miles East of Miami.
Atlantic wind analysis maps due out within the next 30 mins. Will post them here when available. Atlantic ridge continues to build west, as Texas ridge also retreats west towards Arizona. Could become a factor. Irene going NW now, but expecting a WNW track again before the full northward turn.
Quoting alvarig1263:


I've been saying this could happen for the past 24 hours but many berated me for even mentioning FL. Let's see if anything comes of it...


She actually is speeding up. and is now moving NW
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Admin please do something about Jason, This is becoming a problem.


Use the ignore button...
At 9:32am yesterday a high ranking FEMA official reached out to us about 'partnering' in response to Irene...I said "if FEMA can help, great!! If not, please just get out of our way"...as of this moment, we have not heard back from them..........I suppose that answers that....
1044. Gorty
Cone looks like shifted a tad west... not looking good at the updated track and intensity.
Quoting 69Viking:
Presslord, according to my calculations on Google Earth it's NY is approx. 390 miles East of Miami.


which fact makes their forecast look pretty good
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore button...


Mine doesn't work for Jason. Tried it four times in the past twenty minutes. He's getting smarter.
Not a pretty cone. A little west wobble brings a Cat 4 on Nassau.
1050. Buhdog
can someone tell me what happened to Destin Jeff? Funny dude but has not been on...I miss his humor. Low level clouds streaming west in South Florida in front of Irene make for a nice view at the office today.

Good luck BAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Use the ignore button...


I can't he's displaying videos that are screwing up the format of the blog. I can't ignore the buttons are disabled, which is why he is doing what he's doing. I can't read crap on here right now.


Quoting presslord:
At 9:32am yesterday a high ranking FEMA official reached out to us about 'partnering' in response to Irene...I said "if FEMA can help, great!! If not, please just get out of our way"...as of this moment, we have not heard back from them..........I suppose that answers that....


you'd be hard pressed to imagine how much I love that story...
Quoting ecupirate:


Dont hate on the guy too much. He is clearly one of those individuals with "Special Needs"


Who's hating? I'm annoyed that the ignore function isn't working.
Quoting E46Pilot:


She actually is speeding up. and is now moving NW


For now, but I think Irene may slow back down just a little and possibly resume a WNW track. With these jumps to the west they can't keep the direction at NW when it's not even moving NW. We'll continue to watch it over the next hours.
1056. Gorty
Quoting Cotillion:
Not a pretty cone. A little west wobble brings a Cat 4 on Nassau.


NHC went slightly west for the north... not looking good especially since I could see a cat hurricane in western Mass now! Cat 1 in Maine!
I need to post a video of me ignoring/blocking JasonCoolMan2004 videos.
POOF!
1059. MahFL
EAST :(...........bah humbug !
Quoting presslord:


What I wanna know is...How far west of NY is Miami?

If you drew a line straight north from downtown Miami and another straight west from the tip of Manhattan, they'd intersect a few miles south of Pittsburgh International. That's 327 miles due west of Manhattan.
1061. Gorty
NHC:


"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS."
*A note for all NHC bashers*

Up until 30-40 years ago, people who lived along costal areas in the CONUS, every island in the Caribbean, Mexico and CA purchased/stocked up on items they would need in case a major storm impacted them. They had no warning that something was coming down the barrel at them, relying instead on years of experience in handling cases like this. More often than not, their warning that something was coming did not give them enough time to flee to better areas. If they chose not to stock up, nobody else would probably help.

Now we have the NHC, a collection of experts that tracks every cloud between Africa and Hawaii. Up to the minute updates can be had from every person who has a computer. These experts can tell that there could be a problem with a particular cloud as it is leaving Africa.

When major storms to arise, they send off reports to everyone letting them know to PAY ATTENTION. They put out maps of where a storm could POSSIBLY go. They allow the public to have knowledge of what a storm is doing.

In fact, the NHC now allows people to NOT buy supplies for storms because of their forecasts. Just think......when you are complaining and saying "I'm glad I didn't buy supplies" that it was the NHC that saved you a bunch of money!

So, as a recap, the NHC lets you know about storms coming your way and allows you to do what you think is right. They save you money possibly, but also save your life if you need to go.

Keep on bashing them if you want.....just know there are quite a few people that think a bit differently.

BTW, I live in a snow belt. It would be quite irresponsible of me to get rid of all my snow throwing gear just because a model 5 days out says a storm won't hit us with a foot of snow.
1063. scCane
Already looks like it will go west of the next forecast point.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES

Expect this to expand to 300 miles when closer to CONUS
Quoting twooks:


One could argue that models have probably come along way in a decade too, so that has to be a factor in older 3-day models.


A 5-day model with no center line should be fine in my view as well.


It's not a matter of "probably come a long way", they have come a long way.

1 Day avg. error 1990 aprox. 100 miles, 2010 aprox. 50.
2 Day avg. error 1990 aprox. 200 miles, 2010 aprox. 75.
3 Day avg. error 1990 aprox. 300 miles, 2010 aprox. 125.
4 Day avg. error 2000 aprox. 275 miles, 2010 aprox. 150.
5 Day avg. error 2000 aprox. 350 miles, 2010 aprox. 200.

(Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL _trk_error_trend_sm.gif)

Since hurricane storm-force winds can extend out for 150 miles for a large one and tropical storm-force winds can stretch out as far as 300 miles from the center of a large hurricane, the 200 mile avg. error for day five is well within a spatial scope of concern.

I'm in western MA, and today I'll begin some basic prep. If this storm misses me, any prep. I do is set aside for next time. No time or money wasted there.

I applaud the work forecasters at the NHC and academia are doing to improve their predictions.
Quoting scCane:
Already looks like it will go west of the next forecast point.


That's what I'm seeing...
Quoting Neapolitan:

If you drew a line straight north from downtown Miami and another straight west from the tip of Manhattan, they'd intersect a few miles south of Pittsburgh International. That's 327 miles due west of Manhattan.


Thank you ( I think) for understanding the necessity of a simplistic answer when dealing with me
1069. Gorty
Link

Now you all know why it is dangerous to say she will go ots.
Quoting yonzabam:


Mine doesn't work for Jason. Tried it four times in the past twenty minutes. He's getting smarter.


Worked for me...he now holds the distinction of being the one person most represented on my ignore list...and that's the last I'll say on that particular indiviual...LOL
Quoting alvarig1263:


For now, but I think Irene may slow back down just a little and possibly resume a WNW track. With these jumps to the west they can't keep the direction at NW when it's not even moving NW. We'll continue to watch it over the next hours.


Well any jog west would mean increase effects on south Fl. I remeber going to bed thinking Irene was going to skirt south of PR, and waking up and it was N of PR.
It seems to me the Eastern High is building back to the West a little.

Any thoughts? Temporary shift?



i usually just read but i must add this. this monster is bearing down on great exuma. i do believe a fairly large number of people live there. lets wish them safety as this approaches
Quoting HiWay:


Thank you. So the larger the wind field, especially a wide swath of strong winds instead of a small area of intense winds is far more telling for a large surge?
Exactly.

That, and the other usual factors, such as angle of approach, water depths just off the coast, the shape of the coastline.

Katrina made landfall quite perpendicular to the coast in an area where the water she set in motion could not escape the west or to the depths.

If Irene approaches any east-west coastline while moving north, the highest surge she will produce will be east of the eye at the coast, near the distance of her radius of maximum winds to the east. In that scenario, the surge to the west of her eye will be a negative surge (below normal water, some sea bed exposed in shallow areas).

And the wider her area of strong winds, above hurricane force, especially, the larger area experiencing the above.
Quoting Cotillion:
Why is it only the US that ends up getting two intermediate advisories?


Radar


Intermediate Public Advisories. Intermediate Public Advisories will be issued at 2- to 3-hourly intervals between scheduled advisories (see times of issuance below). Issue 3-hourly intermediate advisories whenever 1) a coastal tropical storm or coastal hurricane/typhoon watch/warning is in effect, or 2) a tropical cyclone is over land at tropical storm strength or greater. Issue 2-hourly intermediates whenever tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon warnings are in effect and coastal radars are able to provide responsible tropical cyclone centers with a reliable hourly center position.
Quoting Floodman:


Exactly; all that "I'm a man and a man don't leave his stuff" can end actually meaning "A man has to die with his stuff when he don't understand limitations"
Put that on my tombstone then! LOL
Quoting yonzabam:


Mine doesn't work for Jason. Tried it four times in the past twenty minutes. He's getting smarter.


Mine worked first time so it must be a computer error.

Back on topic, it doesn't seem to me like there is anything stopping Irene from becoming a Cat 4. SSTs are warm, shear is low. Only limiting factor is when the EWRCs happen IMO.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 241450
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS
MORNING. THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...AND THIS SUPPORTED THE
UPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE
THAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB. THE
PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE
TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE
THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL
MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS
AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA
CONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND
120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 22.4N 73.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
If Irene speeds up this will have implications on any evacuations. Could you imagine if this thing were to start cranking up movement to 20-25 mph going due north for Long Island.
1081. Gorty
I can't believe I am saying this but my house has a 50/50 shot at destruction... 50 chance it will get wrecked and 50 chance she will go east of me sparing me.
1082. angiest
Quoting Cotillion:
Why is it only the US that ends up getting two intermediate advisories?


What do you mean? Anytime there is a coastal watch or warning anywhere in the NHC's area they issue the three hour intermediate advisory.

If they only do the 'b' advisory on final approach to US territory, well, their primary mission is to US taxpayers. Alex last year go 'b' advisories, as well as position fixes and update, while Karl did not, except for an update.. I'm not sure the exact criteria for the 'b' advisories.
I wonder how many people in South FL on on there toes this morning knowing how close a major hurricane is to them and moving straight for them!? Yeah the forecast calls for it to turn but how much faith do you have in that forecast!? Sure glad I'm not anywhere along the East Coast for this one, it's going to be touch and go once Irene gets closer to the U.S. Coastline. She's still heading WNW from what I can tell.....How close is she going to get to Florida before she actually turns!?
Acklins Island taking a direct hit from Irene's eye right now as it jumped west and is now pummeling them.
1086. Smikey
Quoting Floodman:


Worked for me...he now holds the distinction of being the one person most represented on my ignore list...and that's the last I'll say on that particular indiviual...LOL


'Ignore' is not working on Internet Explore 9 with Jason, its the embedded videos that are causing a major mess for me on the forum.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Radar


Intermediate Public Advisories. Intermediate Public Advisories will be issued at 2- to 3-hourly intervals between scheduled advisories (see times of issuance below). Issue 3-hourly intermediate advisories whenever 1) a coastal tropical storm or coastal hurricane/typhoon watch/warning is in effect, or 2) a tropical cyclone is over land at tropical storm strength or greater. Issue 2-hourly intermediates whenever tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon warnings are in effect and coastal radars are able to provide responsible tropical cyclone centers with a reliable hourly center position.


Ahh, I see.

So, if non-US countries installed sufficient radars, they'd also get the two hour advisories?

Thanks for the answer, nrti.
In the last hour or so irene has made a sharp left turn..I know it's the wobble but wobbles can add up
Quoting RitaEvac:
If Irene speeds up this will have implications on any evacuations. Could you imagine if this thing were to start cranking up movement to 20-25 mph going due north for Long Island.
Long Island express, the sequel!
Jason will be banned for life for posting a naked women he will be gone gone gone
1092. wpb
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys _storm_surge_zones.pdf

long island storm surge map link above
ignoring him might be overrated
Quoting angiest:


What do you mean? Anytime there is a coastal watch or warning anywhere in the NHC's area they issue the three hour intermediate advisory.

If they only do the 'b' advisory on final approach to US territory, well, their primary mission is to US taxpayers. Alex last year go 'b' advisories, as well as position fixes and update, while Karl did not, except for an update.. I'm not sure the exact criteria for the 'b' advisories.


Yeah, I meant the 'b' advisories for when they crop up. I just wondered why that appeared to be the case.
1095. snotly
go to the top of the screen, click my blog, go to the bottom right, click ignored, add the user to the list... gotta love that!
Quoting Smikey:


'Ignore' is not working on Internet Explore 9 with Jason, its the embedded videos that are causing a major mess for me on the forum.

Use Firefox. Much better. Or Google Chrome would work too.
Whats to stop the trough from lifting and the high building in?
AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM.
1100. Smikey
O
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore button...


ok now he is posting porn, I've got to call it quits on looking at the forum now until that is corrected, since my ignore is not working, and I'm at work.

I hope you all you can correct this so I can come back.

1101. Bayside
Quoting Gorty:
I can't believe I am saying this but my house has a 50/50 shot at destruction... 50 chance it will get wrecked and 50 chance she will go east of me sparing me.


Yup, I know the feeling...
Tip: On filter set to "Show Bad" none of these posts are visible without a click on "Show".

Thus, on a refresh, I see nothing posted by the worst of the blog.
Category 4 - good Lawdie....I sure hope all along the East Coast are prepared for what they could experience....I know it's been a while. And if they say get out - heed the warning.
1104. Jax82
Quoting alvarig1263:
Acklins Island taking a direct hit from Irene's eye right now as it jumped west and is now pummeling them.


Its probably partly sunny, calm winds on Acklins Island at the moment, only because the Eye is right over top of it. :-\
1105. Nimitz
Quoting Smikey:


'Ignore' is not working on Internet Explore 9 with Jason, its the embedded videos that are causing a major mess for me on the forum.


Sounds like the admins need to do an IP block...
1106. IMA
For the vets on the block
Nothing..it can happen and has happened before regardless of the models


Quoting E46Pilot:
Whats to stop the trough from lifting and the high building in?
While is is not a TRUE NW (315 degrees) it is close. Since 8am it has moved 0.5N and 0.6W, so slightly west of northwest, however since 2am, she has moved 1.1N 1.3W, also slighty west of northwest... e.g. the 305 degrees.
Quoting Smikey:


'Ignore' is not working on Internet Explore 9 with Jason, its the embedded videos that are causing a major mess for me on the forum.


Ahhhh...IE9; I have resisted the upgrade lo, these many months and it has paid off handsomely, vis, my ability to banish the aforementioned indiviudal...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Tip: On filter set to "Show Bad" none of these posts are visible without a click on "Show".

Thus, on a refresh, I see nothing posted by the worst of the blog.


in that case...How are you able to respond to me?!?!
1114. hamla
Quoting notabubba:
AB1JV, first licensed 1976

thats great,when max mayfeild was in nhc they had 4 to 5 hams in the center.dont know if any are licensed now qrz n1rg
Quoting Cotillion:


Ahh, I see.

So, if non-US countries installed sufficient radars, they'd also get the two hour advisories?

Thanks for the answer, nrti.


Yes Link that goes into detail on the text products.
Quoting Grandpato4:
Pornography on the blog? I cannot believe this.


WHERE? WHERE?
Quoting IMA:
For the vets on the block


LOL...now THAT'S funny
Quoting IMA:
For the vets on the block


Oh have mercy..brings back memories *sniff, sniff*
The good news is the cone has shifted east again and by next advisory maybe I won't even be in the cone!
Quoting Jax82:


Its probably partly sunny, calm winds on Acklins Island at the moment, only because the Eye is right over top of it. :-\
except for andros island as you go nw from there the islands get more and more populated. I think the bahemians will need alot of help in the comming weeks
1123. IMA
Quoting Grandpato4:
Pornography on the blog? I cannot believe this.


Wow, I thought Press had retired from that particular profession
Presslord

from http://www.geobytes.com/CityDistanceTool.htm?d&pt_ 1=usnynyor&pt_2=usflmiam

1097 miles as a crow flies at 201 degrees south.

from
http://www.carbidedepot.com/formulas-trigright.as p

hypotenuse is 1097, angle A is 21 (201-180).

result is 393 miles West and 1024 miles South.

Hope this helps.
1125. Gorty
Quoting Bayside:


Yup, I know the feeling...


And I am in western Mass! How about you?
1126. dipchip
Seems NHC knows of what they say.

Forecast positions and Max winds
11 AM CDT 23 A 2011
init 23/1500z 20.5n 71.0w 85 kt 100 mph
12h 24/0000z 21.3n 72.3w 90 kt 105 mph
24h 24/1200z 22.3n 73.8w 100 kt 115 mph

Forecast positions and Max winds
11 AM CDT 24 A 2011
init 24/1500z 22.4n 73.9w 100 kt 115 mph
12h 25/0000z 23.4n 74.8w 110 kt 125 mph
24h 25/1200z 25.1n 76.1w 115 kt 135 mph

24 hour forcast hit intesity on the button.
Missed position by 6 min of Lat and Log or about 8 mile error in position.



hmmmm....
Quoting IMA:


Wow, I thought Press had retired from that particular profession


these chicks are even hotter than me
Quoting Floodman:


WHERE? WHERE?

down son, lol
Quoting Floodman:


Ahhhh...IE9; I have resisted the upgrade lo, these many months and it has paid off handsomely, vis, my ability to banish the aforementioned indiviudal...



People still use IE, thats the problem. Use Mozilla Firefox, it is much better, and no problems.
It's funny as soon as a proclamation is made that irene is turning NW she heads west....no so fast NHC
Quoting presslord:


which fact makes their forecast look pretty good


Yes I think their initial forecast was pretty good all things considering. I'm going to calculate how close Irene actually gets to Miami when she passes by, I'm betting it's going to be 250 miles or less. It's nice that you can now add the weather to Google Earth. When Irene's eye is parallel with Miami all I have to do is use the ruler to measure the distance between the two, neat stuff! As it stands now Irene is approx. 495 miles SE of Miami.
1137. TX2FL
Does anyone have any idea when they may issue evacuation suggestions/plans for the Jersey Shore? I have some friends that are planning to go for the weekend, but I think if it's going to hit that area on Sunday, they'd be evacuating Friday or Saturday..
Quoting presslord:


in that case...How are you able to respond to me?!?!
Well, I have the option to expand and reply to any of the minimized posts.

But, yours aren't among those not visible (a very few are).
Quoting Gorty:
I can't believe I am saying this but my house has a 50/50 shot at destruction... 50 chance it will get wrecked and 50 chance she will go east of me sparing me.
Looking at the current maps, W. Mass fall into the 5% chance of >58 mph wind and 20% chance of 37mph wind. Considering it's days away and a couple thousand miles away; I think you should relax a little IMO.
Quoting Floodman:


Ahhhh...IE9; I have resisted the upgrade lo, these many months and it has paid off handsomely, vis, my ability to banish the aforementioned indiviudal...



Google chrome wiped him out when I hit ignore.
1142. truthy
For those of you trying to "ignore" a certain user, there is an alternate way. You can go to "Mail" at the top of your screen, click on the "lists" tab and then enter his name in the "block user" field. It worked for me when my "ignore" button wouldn't.
NEW BLOG POSTED, and category 4 back in the forecast for Irene. This really makes me think of Hurricane Earl does it not? looks like Earl too,just slighty smaller..
Bermuda still with a 592dm ht at the 500mb lvl, down from 594 for 00Z. At least that indicates weakening of the high, although still fairly strong.
Quoting portcharlotte:
In the last hour or so irene has made a sharp left turn..I know it's the wobble but wobbles can add up


The wobbling continues....
I can't stop laughing this AM....did the teacher not only leave the class, did he leave the school??? Cat 4 out there and this mess going on?
sheesh
1147. scott39
Did I miss nakedness after I ignored Jason?!?!?
1148. snotly
Miami is now activating their new HARRP Hurricane defense shield.
1149. Buhdog
Quoting presslord:
ignoring him might be overrated


that would figure since his videos made him my FIRST ignore on this site (6 years in the making) I always turn my head at the wrong time!!!! Thanks for the funnies PRESS
1154. Gorty
Quoting Chapelhill:
Looking at the current maps, W. Mass fall into the 5% chance of >58 mph wind and 20% chance of 37mph wind. Considering it's days away and a couple thousand miles away; I think you should relax a little IMO.


I dont really like those maps because so much can change especially some unexpected turns from west or east back to west etc...
1155. scott39
Quoting Grandpato4:


Yes.
figures.
Is Jason serious??
jason get a jug fill it with water grab a couple tea bags throw it in there let is sit for about five minutes drink with ice. got a bad cough? or that that a chronic problem. so your watching this storm too? a good one for surfing
Quoting 69Viking:
I wonder how many people in South FL on on there toes this morning knowing how close a major hurricane is to them and moving straight for them!? Yeah the forecast calls for it to turn but how much faith do you have in that forecast!? Sure glad I'm not anywhere along the East Coast for this one, it's going to be touch and go once Irene gets closer to the U.S. Coastline. She's still heading WNW from what I can tell.....How close is she going to get to Florida before she actually turns!?


"Yeah the forecast calls for it to turn but how much faith do you have in that forecast!?"

For a two day forecast, very high level of confidence. (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_AT L_trk_error_trend_sm.gif)
Just by the latest observations from the NHC and sat tracking, it looks like the highest probability for a CONUS landfall would be a window between Wilmington NC and Pamlico Sound, NC. Again, this is just a very reasonable guess. The track could still shift some east/west
1160. IMA
Quoting hurricanejunky:


And the classic weather center photo:


Dang it, I couldn't find that or the pic of Press-in-a-Dress! Searching has helped keep me from having as many weather tabs open, though
Quoting snotly:
Miami is now activating their new HARRP Hurricane defense shield.


And it's working like a champ lol. Florida saved because of conspiracy theories yayy!!
Now hj is posting the equivalent of porn...

I'll come back later. Hopefully this place will get better at being on topic rather than taking the bait.
OK...gotta go pretend to be respectable for a few hours...Floodman...you're in charge...
Quoting streamtracker:


"Yeah the forecast calls for it to turn but how much faith do you have in that forecast!?"

For a two day forecast, very high level of confidence. (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_AT L_trk_error_trend_sm.gif)


Yeah, they thought it was going to go over Hispanola too...not
I have friends and family on Long Island who are not taking this storm seriously, brushing it off like it's another Earl. If you live on LI, this is historic, we have never seen a storm like this since Hurricane Gloria in 1991. Please, don't shove this one by and start making ur evacuation plans, Long Island is at sea level and when you have a storm that was a Category 4, the surge can be catastrophic. PLEASE, head my advice and prepare for Irene. This isn't an Earl where it recurves at the last minute, the highs are set in place and the weakness will lead it right up the coastline. A category 2 Hurricane is set for landfall as of the 11 a.m. track.
1166. JNCali
Hey Levi..what are the ants doing in AK??
1167. ph34683
Quoting notabubba:


AB1JV, first licensed 1976


My dad is and will be on OBX tomorrow through the storm (even though I told him not to!)

WB3CWK is his call sign/handle/ whatever you call it...
Quoting streamtracker:


"Yeah the forecast calls for it to turn but how much faith do you have in that forecast!?"

For a two day forecast, very high level of confidence. (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_AT L_trk_error_trend_sm.gif)


Yeah but we are only talking 150 miles here. What about the fact that it was supposed to skirt south of PR, and the next morning it was north?
Irene's west jump/jog continues, Acklins Island getting pounded.
Quoting E46Pilot:


Well any jog west would mean increase effects on south Fl. I remeber going to bed thinking Irene was going to skirt south of PR, and waking up and it was N of PR.

With all your respect,I believe the eye of the Hurricane is following the Hurricane Center points exactly as they lay it out.I'm very confident here in Miami about the Hurricane Center confidence in their track otherwise they could easily issued Warnings this morning or yesterday,this is my own opinion after being a member of this blog for many years,the Hurricane center track in the 2-3 days range is 90% accurate.
1171. kwgirl
Quoting air360:


Actually not really. They say never truly look past three days out. AND in EVERY discussion that we read at the very end of it they say something along the lines of:

"Users are reminded that significant errors are possible with
forecasts at longer lead times...so one should not focus on the
exact forecast positions at 96 and 120 hours."

So how can anyone justify reading the "its possibly heading towards so and so city in five days" and then totally skip the last paragraph like it's not there and then be pissed when it doesnt verify.  That's true selective reading!

Being a Keys dweller since 1960, I have been through a lot of hurricanes and a lot of near misses. I don't even know the number of hurricanes I have seen pass over the keys. Yes, we get complacent. HOWEVER, we all look at the path and listen to what the weather forcasters tell us. When I had a house to shutter, I did it as soon as I thought we would get any winds or rain. In other words, when we were in warning area. So what if it missed. Simple exercise...proved the shutters work and I didn't have to clean up the yard afterwards. I would rather be warned and find out the NWS was wrong and it went elsewhere than be taken off guard so I don't have time for shutters or any preparations. Yes, evacuating is inconvenient, and here in the Keys we have a long way to go to evaucate. But if I had a possible Cat 3 bearing down on us, I would be making plans to scoot out of here. Just because the NWS was wrong on the exact target once does not mean they will be wrong every time! Follow what your EM people tell you to do. It is for your and everyone else's safety. Just Do It!
Um, here is a way to get the blog administrator's attention... EVERYBODY and I mean EVERYBODY, hit the ! button next to Jason's posts. I have already done that myself. If you love the quality information that you get from this blog, please do us all a favor. I look to this blog for insight into models and steering and all other sorts of information (and even humor from time to time), but to have bandwidth tied up with useless information that people, like Jason post, is a severe injustice to all of us that want to learn and share thoughts.
Lets get back the tropics subject ppl,, thats what this blog is for. BTW, there was a 1 mb pressure drop as of the 11 AM advisory, so strengthening continues...
NOTE TO OUTER BANKS: An official notice/ruling will be made at 5:00 PM DST regarding the evacuation of Dare (the Outer Banks minus Ocracoke) County. To our tourists, if they say to go, please go...otherwise you clog the roads for the locals, when it is their turn to evacuate. For what it is worth, I am sorry for your lost vacation day or two days.
1176. Gorty
Quoting reedzone:
I have friends and family on Long Island who are not taking this storm seriously, brushing it off like it's another Earl. If you live on LI, this is historic, we have never seen a storm like this since Hurricane Gloria in 1991. Please, don't shove this one by and start making ur evacuation plans, Long Island is at sea level and when you have a storm that was a Category 4, the surge can be catastrophic. PLEASE, head my advice and prepare for Irene. This isn't an Earl where it recurves at the last minute, the highs are set in place and the weakness will lead it right up the coastline. A category 2 Hurricane is set for landfall as of the 11 a.m. track.


Best post so far. I agree with you.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


And the classic weather center photo:


Atleast he only asked annoying questions repeatedly..
Quoting ph34683:


My dad is and will be on OBX tomorrow through the storm (even though I told him not to!)

WB3CWK is his call sign/handle/ whatever you call it...
They might only let locals on,does he own property on the OBX?


Cat 2 storm in the NE, will bring a cat 4 surge just like Ike, because the wind field is BIG

Quoting reedzone:
I have friends and family on Long Island who are not taking this storm seriously, brushing it off like it's another Earl. If you live on LI, this is historic, we have never seen a storm like this since Hurricane Gloria in 1991. Please, don't shove this one by and start making ur evacuation plans, Long Island is at sea level and when you have a storm that was a Category 4, the surge can be catastrophic. PLEASE, head my advice and prepare for Irene. This isn't an Earl where it recurves at the last minute, the highs are set in place and the weakness will lead it right up the coastline. A category 2 Hurricane is set for landfall as of the 11 a.m. track.



reed hurricane gloris was in 1985 not 1991..
1182. 996tt
Quoting Smikey:
O

ok now he is posting porn, I've got to call it quits on looking at the forum now until that is corrected, since my ignore is not working, and I'm at work.

I hope you all you can correct this so I can come back.



Haha, the work thing is funny. Worried about some random picture, but okay for employer to pay you to participate in a blog.
Quoting overwash12:
Long Island express, the sequel!


I don't think Irene will be reaching forward speeds of 60 mph as the 1938 storm did though...
Quoting Hurricane1956:

With all your respect,I believe the eye of the Hurricane is following the Hurricane Center points exactly as they lay it out.I'm very confident here in Miami about the Hurricane Center confidence in their track otherwise they could easily issued Warnings this morning or yesterday,this is my own opinion after being a member of this blog for many years,the Hurricane center track in the 2-3 days range is 90% accurate.


I do agree with you, but a slight unseen bounce can mean a world of difference. Remember Wilma, and Charley? The both bounced at the last minute.
With all your respect,I believe the eye of the Hurricane is following the Hurricane Center points exactly as they lay it out.I'm very confident here in Miami about the Hurricane Center confidence in their track otherwise they could easily issued Warnings this morning or yesterday,this is my own opinion after being a member of this blog for many years,the Hurricane center track in the 2-3 days range is 90% accurate.
1186. ph34683
Quoting overwash12:
They might only let locals on,does he own property on the OBX?


Yes, he lives there year-round.
Where is Levi's update?
Just paid for full membership $10...Having 40 frames of NEXRAD Radar...priceless $$ :)..

Anyone else noticed the trough plowing through the Northeast is forcasted to be slightly weaker? I'm just taking that from the Severe weather outlook, which has shifted the protential severe zone much further to the northeast of prevouis position. Did't know if this would play any part?





Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Um, here is a way to get the blog administrator's attention... EVERYBODY and I mean EVERYBODY, hit the ! button next to Jason's posts. I have already done that myself. If you love the quality information that you get from this blog, please do us all a favor. I look to this blog for insight into models and steering and all other sorts of information (and even humor from time to time), but to have bandwidth tied up with useless information that people, like Jason post, is a severe injustice to all of us that want to learn and share thoughts.


That is not Jason, say what you will about him but his posts were at least all weather related, he never posted vulgar pictures like this impostor who is evidently succeeding in making Jason look bad.
1190. wpb
anyone have the link for noaa satellite quick scan
Quoting Smikey:
O

ok now he is posting porn, I've got to call it quits on looking at the forum now until that is corrected, since my ignore is not working, and I'm at work.

I hope you all you can correct this so I can come back.



If the ignore button doesn't work, go to your blog, Blog Control Panel on the right, then click on 'edit ignored list', there you can enter the user handle you wish to ignore.

Concerning Irene, I have watched the gradual eastward shift of the cone over the last couple of days - may it continue like this. I hope the trough is strong enough to have some effect on Irene.
Quoting Hurricane1956:

With all your respect,I believe the eye of the Hurricane is following the Hurricane Center points exactly as they lay it out.I'm very confident here in Miami about the Hurricane Center confidence in their track otherwise they could easily issued Warnings this morning or yesterday,this is my own opinion after being a member of this blog for many years,the Hurricane center track in the 2-3 days range is 90% accurate.


Show proof of that? Irene was supposed to go South of Puerto Rico and cross Hispanolia and in less then 24 hours it had gone North of Puerto Rico. Nothing in Forecasting is 90% guaranteed anyone with any clue about weather would know that.
The west wobble as seen on the NASA site is now about 1.5 hours worth..it should get some attention
Quoting ph34683:


Yes, he lives there year-round.
They have well built houses down there,N.C. is pretty strict on their building codes.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Cat 2 storm in the NE, will bring a cat 4 surge just like Ike, because the wind field is BIG


You said the TS wind field will be up to 300 miles in diameter as she moves closer to the coast, Rita? One little problem. She'll be larger than that, up to 400 or 450 miles by the time she nears the southeastern Jersey Shore. Storms always expand as they move poleward. Our only saving grace...well two of them are:

1). She catches the though and the trough moves quickly out, and Irene misses the CONUS by 50 miles or more.

2). Or, she is on the downswing of a previous EWRC, and beginning weakening as soon as she begins moving near the OBX and gets up there as a strong TS. Not that that is any good either. But the timing would have to be right if that were to happen. And anything can happen right now when forecasting that far in advance.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


The wobbling continues....


Wobble west, wobble north equaly nw movement
Guys is the reason its moving WNW is because its wobbling. I still think this will move to NW.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I don't think Irene will be reaching forward speeds of 60 mph as the 1938 storm did though...
maybe 70 mph instead fast mover less damage low surge
Quoting portcharlotte:
The west wobble as seen on the NASA site is now about 1.5 hours worth..it should get some attention

It got mine. I'm still very on edge for as far south of Surfside Beach, SC.
If she is going NW at 77W, it's check mate for CONUS
Quoting reedzone:
I have friends and family on Long Island who are not taking this storm seriously, brushing it off like it's another Earl. If you live on LI, this is historic, we have never seen a storm like this since Hurricane Gloria in 1991. Please, don't shove this one by and start making ur evacuation plans, Long Island is at sea level and when you have a storm that was a Category 4, the surge can be catastrophic. PLEASE, head my advice and prepare for Irene. This isn't an Earl where it recurves at the last minute, the highs are set in place and the weakness will lead it right up the coastline. A category 2 Hurricane is set for landfall as of the 11 a.m. track.


CORRECTION: Gloria was in 1985, not 1991.. Getting mixed up with Bob and Gloria. Meant to say Gloria in 1985.
1202. Lykkan
Seems like the wobble to the west continues. Cuban radar showing the eye nicely.
Quoting reedzone:
I have friends and family on Long Island who are not taking this storm seriously, brushing it off like it's another Earl. If you live on LI, this is historic, we have never seen a storm like this since Hurricane Gloria in 1991. Please, don't shove this one by and start making ur evacuation plans, Long Island is at sea level and when you have a storm that was a Category 4, the surge can be catastrophic. PLEASE, head my advice and prepare for Irene. This isn't an Earl where it recurves at the last minute, the highs are set in place and the weakness will lead it right up the coastline. A category 2 Hurricane is set for landfall as of the 11 a.m. track.


Are you right in line with the NHC forcast? Or do you this still possible swaying furthur east or west with time? I have noticed that the trough over the midwest is a bit weaker than forcasted. I don't know what implications if any this would have?
Quoting portcharlotte:
The west wobble as seen on the NASA site is now about 1.5 hours worth..it should get some attention


Yes it should, could mean a big difference on landfall location
Quoting Lykkan:
Seems like the wobble to the west continues. Cuban radar showing the eye nicely.

Can you post the link?
.
1207. Buhdog
Quoting E46Pilot:


I do agree with you, but a slight unseen bounce can mean a world of difference. Remember Wilma, and Charley? The both bounced at the last minute.


wilma did not bounce last minute. Charley was only slightly bounced...but the angle of the costline made it more severe. The NHC is nailing this 3 days in right now, follow that map.
1208. air360
**anxiously awaiting 12GFS**

:)
Click "ignore user" to get rid of Jason(not so)coolman2004......it'll also put him on your BLOCK list. Admin will deal with THAT IDIOT!!!
1210. ph34683
Quoting overwash12:
They have well built houses down there,N.C. is pretty strict on their building codes.


Yes, that is true. I'm glad for that! He's about 200 yards from the water though so that scares me.
If she is going NW by the time she gets to 77W, it's check mate for the CONUS
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yes it should, could mean a big difference on land fall location

Big time. Not only that but that may coincide with a slower motion as well, which both of those factors then could be at the mercy of a stronger than anticipated BH and weaker trough. This would shift the track even further west, down the road.
Quoting RitaEvac:
If she is going NW by the time she gets to 77W, it's check mate for the CONUS

Exactly.
1214. Gorty
Who think we will have Jose before September?
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (FLAG)
MARK
24.00n/74.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Quoting E46Pilot:



People still use IE, thats the problem. Use Mozilla Firefox, it is much better, and no problems.

And the FlashBlock addon makes this and other sites much easier to read.
NEW STEERING MAP:

For every wobble west, there is a wobble NNW.
They say timing is everything:

Over the last 3 advisories Irene has moved .8N and 1.5W, where I went to school that tells me Irene's motion has been and still is WNW.
1221. air360
Although i totally agree with people who say wobbles are not to be given much credit...but viewing this starting at 1315 to the end of the loop does show over an hour of more W motion....which puts it on track to actually miss the next forecast point to the west. just sayin...

Link
Quoting 69Viking:


Show proof of that? Irene was supposed to go South of Puerto Rico and cross Hispanolia and in less then 24 hours it had gone North of Puerto Rico. Nothing in Forecasting is 90% guaranteed anyone with any clue about weather would know that.

I'm no a weather expert at all and don't want to upset anybody with my opinion about the Hurricane track,this is just one of my hobby's following tropical systems,and this blog is very good!!,but let's wait 24-36 hours and see if my comments are correct or wrong,if wrong I will be the first to recognized.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yes it should, could mean a big difference on land fall location

Furthermore, the eastern fringe of the eyewall appears to be undergoing weakening. Now if this is the start to a slight downward fluxuation in intensity, this may also affect her ability to move more NNW.
Quoting Buhdog:


wilma did not bounce last minute. Charley was only slightly bounced...but the angle of the costline made it more severe. The NHC is nailing this 3 days in right now, follow that map.


I remember the track for Wilma was supposed to track west of Lake Okeechobee, but the eye came right over my house in Boca.
Basically watch to see what happens at 77W
Looking at the recent track are they calling for the storm to stall for a couple hours in the Bahamas ?

It does not look like it is stalling on the sat, or is it just me
imo if this west wobble continues for another 12 hours they are going to have to issue TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA..this wasnt supposed to happen thats for sure...
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Are you right in line with the NHC forcast? Or do you this still possible swaying furthur east or west with time? I have noticed that the trough over the midwest is a bit weaker than forcasted. I don't know what implications if any this would have?


I think the pattern shows it clearly, Irene may head a bit more west then forecast, maybe a brief landfall in NC then the eastern High should start building more to the east and push Irene potentially NNW into NJ or NYC, or Long Island. The USA is NOT escaping this one. It's a Historical storm. Haven't seen a Hurricane hit Long Island since Bob of 1991
Quoting wxobsvps:
They say timing is everything:


You got it. And by the looks of that, Irene is a bit tardy.
Quoting 69Viking:
Over the last 3 advisories Irene has moved .8N and 1.5W, where I went to school that tells me Irene's motion has been and still is WNW.


Well I got her going 1.1 North and 1.3 West over the last 8 hours, that was from 2 AM position to 10 AM position. So she has made that NW turn, it's just a question is when she decides to make those "other" turns.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Furthermore, the eastern fringe of the eyewall appears to be undergoing weakening. Now if this is the start to a slight downward fluxuation in intensity, this may also affect her ability to move more NNW.



Here is the next layer down:

1233. Gorty
The new steering map means nothing to me lol. What is it saying?
It better shoot the gap quickly because it's getting tighter


Quoting charlottefl:
NEW STEERING MAP:

1235. LargoFl
Quoting reedzone:


CORRECTION: Gloria was in 1985, not 1991.. Getting mixed up with Bob and Gloria. Meant to say Gloria in 1985.
I have family and friends in wash d.c who also are not taking this seriously, local weather is telling them it will only be a cat 1 by the time it gets there..geez i hope they are right
Quoting reedzone:


I think the pattern shows it clearly, Irene may head a bit more west then forecast, maybe a brief landfall in NC then the eastern High should start building more to the east and push Irene potentially NNW into NJ or NYC, or Long Island. The USA is NOT escaping this one. It's a Historical storm. Haven't seen a Hurricane hit Long Island since Bob of 1991


Watch it at 77W, key location
Quoting air360:
Although i totally agree with people who say wobbles are not to be given much credit...but viewing this starting at 1315 to the end of the loop does show over an hour of more W motion....which puts it on track to actually miss the next forecast point to the west. just sayin...

Link



That's a big wobble
Quoting charlottefl:



Here is the next layer down:


Thnx for the map. Yep, she's digging all the layers, even the deep ones now. She may get caught up. Not saying she will, but this is appearing a bit more likely.
Quoting RitaEvac:
If she is going NW by the time she gets to 77W, it's check mate for the CONUS


Rita I list the points from each advisory and then look at Irene's movement from 3 advirsories combined and she has continued on a very WNW path. It appears NW but she always moves more West than North over a 3 advisory average. Either way you're right, going to be a very close call, just depends on when and where she makes that turn to the North! This is kind of fun when the storms aren't in the Gulf and bearing down on us!
Quoting LargoFl:
I have family and friends in wash d.c who also are not taking this seriously, local weather is telling them it will only be a cat 1 by the time it gets there..geez i hope they are right
Hope the quake there yesterday didn't rattle them too badly. Quakes and storms together...
The eye has been nailing the NHC tropical points dead on for the last 12 hours.

Quoting wpb:
anyone have the link for noaa satellite quick scan


Link
Ridge is buliding back to the west. I'm not seeing any changes in the models, but I'm sure they will follow soon. Anyone has any comment about this? I'm not going to make wild guesses at this point.
sorry, this is a dumb question on my part, but how do you read this map?

Take for example the down arrow lines to the left of florida and the kind of looping lines to the SE of SE Florida.

I am trying to learn more as I am not as experienced as most everyone on here, thanks
1245. dipchip
What some folks don't grasp is that each 6 hour update the NHC collects ooodles of new data that improves their projections for the next forcast.

The initial TS forcast had very little data collected relative to current data. Therefore initial projections have larger errors.

Also the last 24 hour projection error was in a good position east and north of the 24 hour projection. NHC Conservative projections err in favor of less calamity than projected.
Quoting Gorty:
The new steering map means nothing to me lol. What is it saying?


It really depends. For now it shows the AB high is holding steady with it's position and the trough has flattened out before the approach of the 2nd shortwave..Irene may get a little more west before turning north. I don't think much but enough to make a difference for the bahamas..
1247. 7544
Quoting Lykkan:
Seems like the wobble to the west continues. Cuban radar showing the eye nicely.


morning everyone looks like irenes moving nw at this hour but could we see more wobbles to the west today watching the high
Quoting IMA:
For the vets on the block
MLP is everywhere!
Quoting reedzone:


I think the pattern shows it clearly, Irene may head a bit more west then forecast, maybe a brief landfall in NC then the eastern High should start building more to the east and push Irene potentially NNW into NJ or NYC, or Long Island. The USA is NOT escaping this one. It's a Historical storm. Haven't seen a Hurricane hit Long Island since Bob of 1991



I got a buddy that lives in CT. Soon as I told him about this, he has already made plans to go stay with his parents in Flint Michigan for a week. He left today. I told the some of the worst NE Hurricanes in the past were merely a CAT 1/2's. Their expanded windfields when they get at that latitude always seems to be what surprises people the most, that and the speed at which they accelerate up to there at. Hopefully she will be lop-sided to her eastern quadrents.
1250. BrandiQ
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Thnx for the map. Yep, she's digging all the layers, even the deep ones now. She may get caught up. Not saying she will, but this is appearing a bit more likely.


Im not sure what that means... Getting "caught up"...
Quoting 69Viking:


Rita I list the points from each advisory and then look at Irene's movement from 3 advirsories combined and she has continued on a very WNW path. It appears NW but she always moves more West than North over a 3 advisory average. Either way you're right, going to be a very close call, just depends on when and where she makes that turn to the North! This is kind of fun when the storms aren't in the Gulf and bearing down on us!


If she is at 77W, even if she starts going North it's already to late in my book
1252. Gorty
Quoting charlottefl:


It really depends. For now it shows the AB high is holding steady with it's position and the trough has flattened out before the approach of the 2nd shortwave..


What does that mean for Irene?
12z GFS:
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM.


It all comes down to where the TROF of low pressure sets up... won't know that until Friday.
Quoting IMA:


Dang it, I couldn't find that or the pic of Press-in-a-Dress! Searching has helped keep me from having as many weather tabs open, though


Right click on the photo to get the URL so you can have it on hand for future use...LOL!
as I predicted yesterday the storm hasn't made a hard hook to the right and I dont believe it will. The eyewall is now at 74w/22.4n . The NHS had this plotted at 74/24 with this already making its hard hook. They were wrong....

The weak shortwave trough lost the war against the bermuda high. Get ready florida, thats all I can say.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Ridge is buliding back to the west. I'm not seeing any changes in the models, but I'm sure they will follow soon. Anyone has any comment about this? I'm not going to make wild guesses at this point.


Wrong steering layer. That is for a storm with a pressure above 1000 mbs. You need to select a map based upon the pressure of the system and that can be found on the bottom edge of each map available on the page. See the menu at the top of the page from which the correct map is to be selected.
HH are out 130miles from the center and still encountering hurricane winds
1259. nash28
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Ridge is buliding back to the west. I'm not seeing any changes in the models, but I'm sure they will follow soon. Anyone has any comment about this? I'm not going to make wild guesses at this point.


You're using the wrong steering layer. You want to use the 300-850mb layer for Irene right now.
1260. Buhdog
Quoting E46Pilot:


I remember the track for Wilma was supposed to track west of Lake Okeechobee, but the eye came right over my house in Boca.


That is hardly a bounce...I don't mean to be argumentative. The path was VERY close to the lake
Link
Quoting Joshfsu123:
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM.


It all comes down to where the TROF of low pressure sets up... won't know that until Friday.



by friday??? it's wednesday morning. It's almost to 75W. Miami is 80w......r u sure about what your saying?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
12z GFS:


Is the new model run coming
Does anyone else have a slight vibe that the model consensus it a little bit too east? I kind of do, and it seems like everyone on the blog does.


This is the layered 300-850mb steering, this is used for TC of 950-969mb and 90-112kt. Heading into that weakness. The steering has not changed a lot in 12 hrs, as the A-B high remains pretty much in place.
GFS 6hrs:
Quoting Gorty:


What does that mean for Irene?


I added a line to that comment, basically said it may mean Irene could make it a little further West. I don't think to much enough to make a difference for some of the Bahama islands tho...
beautiful day here in SF :-)
Quoting BrandiQ:


Im not sure what that means... Getting "caught up"...

Hanging around longer. Not necessarily stalling, but a slower motion than forecasted. This could mean a change in her track down the road. And further west is the most logical. We'll monitor her speed, and see if she holds it together and gets out there to ride the western flank of that ridge NNW before it moves further west and/or refuses to subside.
this wobble is huge for nassau could mean a difference from clean side hit to a direct hit
Posters are really begging for a U.S. landfall, and those who are, are no better than the vultures at the weather channel begging for something news worthy. After a week of reading posts, the media, and this forum continues to pretend that Irene has already made landfall with posts like "Irene a historic storm to slam into North Carolina", etc, etc. Well guess what folks, you can talk and talk about Irene not taking the turn toward the north and east, just like previous storms, but one way or another, this storm will continue to head out to sea. Get over it and salivate over the next tropical wave.
here is the correct map

EDIT

Map will not post
Quoting reedzone:
I have friends and family on Long Island who are not taking this storm seriously, brushing it off like it's another Earl. If you live on LI, this is historic, we have never seen a storm like this since Hurricane Gloria in 1991. Please, don't shove this one by and start making ur evacuation plans, Long Island is at sea level and when you have a storm that was a Category 4, the surge can be catastrophic. PLEASE, head my advice and prepare for Irene. This isn't an Earl where it recurves at the last minute, the highs are set in place and the weakness will lead it right up the coastline. A category 2 Hurricane is set for landfall as of the 11 a.m. track.


Wishcaster...
You talk about steering layers. Look at this one, if she were to continue to strengthen it would put her in the 940 mb and below this would be her steering layer.

Quoting nash28:


You're using the wrong steering layer. You want to use the 300-850mb layer for Irene right now.


Can you please post that steering layer map if possible-thanks. Where do you find the steering layer maps?
The outer band is starting to sweep over Cuba...wide stretch from the East into Central. Wow!
1278. HCW
Quoting RitaEvac:


If she is at 77W, even if she starts going North it's already to late in my book

My book too.
Quoting E46Pilot:



People still use IE, thats the problem. Use Mozilla Firefox, it is much better, and no problems.


I have always used IE and had relatively few problems
Quoting CothranRoss:
Does anyone else have a slight vibe that the model consensus it a little bit too east? I kind of do, and it seems like everyone on the blog does.



ummm lol yah.


bermuda high = best SEC offensive line.


running back to the left out of the backfield around the flank..... NHS may give up a touchdown down the sidelines on this one....
Quoting odinslightning:
Get florida, thats all I can say.


I guess it time for you to create your own Hurricane Center. You know more than the professionals.
1283. 7544
could she come closer to so fla if the high is that strong and the high is moving west if so by how many miles closer sorry dont know how to red the lines on that sterring map tia
1284. rv1pop
Quoting yonzabam:


Mine doesn't work for Jason. Tried it four times in the past twenty minutes. He's getting smarter.
reminds me of Littleton
Quoting Floodman:


I have always used IE and had relatively few problems
I use Chrome. :D

Try it...much much better than IE.
Here is 00Z analyzed 500mb heights. Notice the Four Corners high stretches out across the GoM to the west coast of FL



Here is the 12Z analyzed 500mb heights. Notice the Four Corners high has its easten most periphery now extending to the FL panhandle.



What we don't want is the CONUS high to give way in the east, allowing for the weakness to be more pronounced over the eastern CONUS, rather than offshore.

You'll need to click the image below to enlarge in another window to see, but look at the 12Z analyzed 500mb heights along the Eastern Seaboard... 588 and higher up to about the DC area at 587



It is critical that the heights lower off shore for the weakness to develop for Irene to track towards. But Bermuda still at 592, and the western flank of the Atl high nosing toward CONUS is still a concern.

I understand modeling suggest the passage of Irene off shore, but the exact timing and location of the weakness is crucial. I just post this to shed light on what I see as a possible wrinkle.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



rita the gap is closing in on IRENE...SHE BETTER START MAKING THE TURN SOON OR SHE WONT MAKE IT AT ALL...SOUTH FLA MAY HAVE TO BE UNDER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IF THIS WEST JOG CONTINUES FOR 12 HOURS...VERY INTERESTING THIS TROF MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY ARE PREDICTING..ITS POSSIBLE IRENE WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE TROF THEN WE HAVE A REALLY STICKY SITUATION HERE..


so what does this do to your prediction 70% fish?
1288. jonelu
Quoting odinslightning:
as I predicted yesterday the storm hasn't made a hard hook to the right and I dont believe it will. The eyewall is now at 74w/22.4n . The NHS had this plotted at 74/24 with this already making its hard hook. They were wrong....

The weak shortwave trough lost the war against the bermuda high. Get ready florida, thats all I can say.
NHC has been dead on with Irene especially through day 3. So Fl is fine and unlikely to get anything more than gusty winds and rain.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
You talk about steering layers. Look at this one, if she were to continue to strengthen it would put her in the 949 mb and below this would be her steering layer.

img src="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlanti c/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF" style="m
ax-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">


It's really tight. I can't say the High will stay like that, strengthen, or weaken over time. We'll just having to wait and see, it's holding steady for now tho..
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Well I got her going 1.1 North and 1.3 West over the last 8 hours, that was from 2 AM position to 10 AM position. So she has made that NW turn, it's just a question is when she decides to make those "other" turns.


That's still more West than North dah which indicates a WNW movement just as I said earlier!
She's top heavy, gonna be harder to turn, big storms like this tend to control environment around themselves therefore more westward if you will
Quoting cornchucker:
Posters are really begging for a U.S. landfall, and those who are, are no better than the vultures at the weather channel begging for something news worthy. After a week of reading posts, the media, and this forum continues to pretend that Irene has already made landfall with posts like "Irene a historic storm to slam into North Carolina", etc, etc. Well guess what folks, you can talk and talk about Irene not taking the turn toward the north and east, just like previous storms, but one way or another, this storm will continue to head out to sea. Get over it and salivate over the next tropical wave.


Well now that we have your permission....
1294. Mucinex
Quoting IMA:
For the vets on the block

LoL! Of course! The Bronies will defend NY!
1295. wpb
noaa plane heading back will croos ovr broward county in 30 min
Quoting jonelu:
NHC has been dead on with Irene especially through day 3. So Fl is fine and unlikely to get anything more than gusty winds and rain.



ok , if you say so. enjoy the anomaly reading as the eye approaches 80w down low.....lol
The desperation of the Florida wishcaster is ramping up. The further North it goes the louder they scream, "It's heading west, see that wobble"?
Steering layer for 950 mb to 969 mb system



Edit

Already posted
the shortwave trough lost. in my eyes this is academic at this point, but here is my daily prediction...


by 10:00 est in miami crap will be hitting the fan in the lil brick stormhouse.....panic sets in as they realize......
Quoting Hurricane1956:
With all your respect,I believe the eye of the Hurricane is following the Hurricane Center points exactly as they lay it out.I'm very confident here in Miami about the Hurricane Center confidence in their track otherwise they could easily issued Warnings this morning or yesterday,this is my own opinion after being a member of this blog for many years,the Hurricane center track in the 2-3 days range is 90% accurate.

Precisely. To show this, I've combined the NHC's 3- and 5-day cone from Sunday afternoon with the storm's track as of last evening. It's true that Irene has stayed against the hard right side of that cone--but she's stayed within that cone nonetheless. Bottom line: the NHC's 3-day cone is pretty much rock solid. Folks who ignore it do so at their own peril...

Irene
Anyone have any idea where this thing is going, just based on the main feeder band on the west side--- I have heard there is a way to tell, but I am not sure if that is true or not. Anyone?
Quoting cornchucker:
Posters are really begging for a U.S. landfall, and those who are, are no better than the vultures at the weather channel begging for something news worthy. After a week of reading posts, the media, and this forum continues to pretend that Irene has already made landfall with posts like "Irene a historic storm to slam into North Carolina", etc, etc. Well guess what folks, you can talk and talk about Irene not taking the turn toward the north and east, just like previous storms, but one way or another, this storm will continue to head out to sea. Get over it and salivate over the next tropical wave.


Yea....better make a hellava turn now if that's the case
and to add to that, the upper level pattern change is supposed to begin by Friday with the Bermuda High shifting westward into the western atlantic parking itself.

September will be interesting. That High looks to be in place. Not to sound crazy but if a storm is in the wrong place at the wrong time, Florida will be a sitting duck as well as the other gulf coast states

some of the GFS models indicate the High getting stronger as well
Quoting JasonCoolMan2004:
sorry for porn pic!!!
Jason you commited a offence not only to this blog but to the whole world posting porn on a open blogg like this i hope Weather Under Ground Reports you and you get charged for the offence . They could be sued for what you did on there blog
Quoting 69Viking:


That's still more West than North dah which indicates a WNW movement just as I said earlier!


Very true, good point. I'd say we are going to see a more gradual than sharp turn with her.
Quoting jonelu:
NHC has been dead on with Irene especially through day 3. So Fl is fine and unlikely to get anything more than gusty winds and rain.


How can you say they were dead on...they completely missed the forecast when she went north of hispanola. They had it going over Hispanola and some earlier forecasts we're for it to go south...JMO
1308. Vero1
Quoting ecupirate:
The eye has been nailing the NHC tropical points dead on for the last 12 hours.

And every 6 hrs NHC moves the points to the eye.
Like I said if there is a Westward shift it would not likely be much, but my concern is growing for Nassau in the Bahamas, I hope they're prepared...
Quoting 69Viking:


That's still more West than North dah which indicates a WNW movement just as I said earlier!
She needs a bigger north movement than a west movement to be going nw.
1311. GoWVU
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Steering layer for 950 mb to 969 mb system





still looks like a SE coast threat???? she needs to start turning now!!!
Quoting aprinz1979:


so what does this do to your prediction 70% fish?



WELL IT STILL COULD HAPPEN THATS WHY I LEFT THE 30% IN FOR REASONS LIKE THIS...
12Z NOGAPS and GFS both have Irene getting pretty close to FL coast...

Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Ridge is buliding back to the west. I'm not seeing any changes in the models, but I'm sure they will follow soon. Anyone has any comment about this? I'm not going to make wild guesses at this point.


If this holds all bets are off, I would expect a shift west in the projected path jmo.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea....better make a hellava turn now if that's the case




yah, NHS i bet is hoping for a hard turn. but what's there 2 do it? nothing....and now she enters the shallow waters around Bermuda (hottest water in the Gulf Stream) with a bullseye on Miami.....
I live on the FL east coast just above Melbourne. Even if it is on NHC track, I'm not taking my eye off this one until it makes that more northerly turn. She's at 74WW Now and still moving slightly more west than north. I don't fully trust the model at this time.

Best wishes to and praying for all you folks in the Bahamas.
Eve
Quoting Neapolitan:

Precisely. To show this, I've combined the NHC's 3- and 5-day cone from Sunday afternoon with the storm's track as of last evening. It's true that Irene has stayed against the hard right side of that cone--but she's stayed within that cone nonetheless. Bottom line: the NHC's 3-day cone is pretty much rock solid. Folks who ignore it do so at their own peril...

Irene


Good point, people from Wilmington NC, to Boston MA needs to understand its ALL ABOUT PREPARING FOR THE WORST and hoping for the best.
1318. hcubed
Quoting clodburst2011:



yes joe b scares me sometimes with the crazy predictions he comes up with...i guess we can say joe b hit a homerun on this one..just hope its not to devastating...


Heck, some of the posters on HERE scare me with their crazy predictions.

One guy a few years ago kept bringing every storm into NOLA as a cat 5...
It has changed from 290 to 305 degrees on the 11:00AM update from the NHC. I will be alot happier when it gets past Jupiter Fl. but due have faith in the NHC track.
After 24 hours the 12 GFS is south and west of the 6z...

12z:


6z:
Out to 24, the GFS is slightly farther SW than 6z.
Quoting RitaEvac:


If she is at 77W, even if she starts going North it's already to late in my book


Yep alot riding on when that next short wave gets to the NE, if it's delayed or weaker than forecast this thing is not going to turn like they are forecasting it to turn! She's already crossing 74W and still heading in that WNW direction.....
Quoting VieraChris:
I live on the FL east coast just above Melbourne. Even if it is on NHC track, I'm not taking my eye off this one until it makes that more northerly turn. She's at 74WW Now and still moving slightly more west than north. I don't fully trust the model at this time.

Best wishes to and praying for all you folks in the Bahamas.

That's a smart idea. Keep watching till it is north of you.
Quoting Floodman:


I have always used IE and had relatively few problems


I use Chrome and Firefox but Firefox is a memory leaking piece of crap. I find Chrome to be the most stable with no memory leaks and it's HTML 5 compliant...

Irene does look like she's wobbling west of forecast points but I'm sure the course correction wobble is coming anytime...
Here is the 700mb analysis that shows the weakness between AL and well off shore the East Coast



Here is the same map for 12Z. Notice that the weakness is concentrated over the Eastern US now. That impulse (big U shape) over Canada north of Lake Superior should come through and reinforce the weakness, but it is important that it be established as off-shore as possible.

Irene has been heading due west for the past 3 satellite frames (90 minutes). I think she's finally feeling the ridge and knows she has to go around it before going north, and that is why I have been saying expect Irene to be quite a ways west by the time it gets near FL, than what the models have been predicting.
1328. Mucinex
Quoting E46Pilot:



People still use IE, thats the problem. Use Mozilla Firefox, it is much better, and no problems.

The problem is that some of us are at work or accessing the site from locations were there is no choice but to use IE. The Admins have known this for years but have done nothing to fix it.

However, for those on IE, if you wait for the page to turn over, the blog will return to it's normal appearance.
1329. snotly
cloud tops warming slightly...

Link
Anticyclone is moving back over Irene. Which will mean shear will lessen and intensification will continue and will even ramp up more. Cat 4 Irene in the making.

Quoting VieraChris:
I live on the FL east coast just above Melbourne. Even if it is on NHC track, I'm not taking my eye off this one until it makes that more northerly turn. She's at 74WW Now and still moving slightly more west than north. I don't fully trust the model at this time.

Best wishes to and praying for all you folks in the Bahamas.


Same here, Chris. I live just a few miles north of you, in Merritt Island. I will not be fully comfortable until this thing is past our latitude. Gusty winds on the way for us though, regardless, and the threat for isolated tornadoes... so just because we may not get the full fury, we are also not necessarily going unscathed, either.
1332. wxdrone
...which is why I won't discuss the OBX or NE today lol


"AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM."
Bastardi said yesterday that this year was going to be a East Coast year and now by looking at how the ridge is positioning itself I can see what he meant.
1334. rv1pop
Quoting Smikey:


'Ignore' is not working on Internet Explore 9 with Jason, its the embedded videos that are causing a major mess for me on the forum.
There is to 'strong' a cache in IE. Delete the current cache not just 24+ hours cache and it should be gone.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Bastardi said yesterday that this year was going to be a East Coast year and now by looking at how the ridge is positioning itself I can see what he meant.
A bit like 2003 I assume?
Also, Irene's east side is flattening somewhat in latest satellite images. Shows it is being pushed west by the ridge just as suspected.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Same here, Chris. I live just a few miles north of you, in Merritt Island. I will not be fully comfortable until this thing is past our latitude. Gusty winds on the way for us though, regardless, and the threat for isolated tornadoes... so just because we may not get the full fury, we are also not necessarily going unscathed, either.


Very true neighbor, very true!
ULHP is the first model to shift west.

Closer to Florida
In the last 3 hours, Irene has wobbled almost due WNW rather than NW.

Also, the GFS is out to 33 and no major changes so far, except that it's a little SW of 6z so far.
Quoting philliesrock:
In the last 3 hours, Irene has wobbled almost due WNW rather than NW.

Also, the GFS is out to 33 and no major changes so far, except that it's a little SW of 6z so far.

Not significant. Right.
We will have killer surf in NS if this pans out 120-144hrs

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=nat la_height
Regardless of what happens, this storm is going to have a GIGANTIC wind field by the time it's in the NE, and that alone is gonna shock people up there. Put it this way, after the quake, and what is awaiting the NE, these folks will think the world is coming to an end literally.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
After 24 hours the 12 GFS is south and west of the 6z...

12z:


6z:




the 1st z run u have shown there doesn't even look accurate. how can that be. it shows it at 25N 75W its already almost to 75 w and no trough in sight.....models can't deal with the anomaly that started yesterday.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Same here, Chris. I live just a few miles north of you, in Merritt Island. I will not be fully comfortable until this thing is past our latitude. Gusty winds on the way for us though, regardless, and the threat for isolated tornadoes... so just because we may not get the full fury, we are also not necessarily going unscathed, either.


yup same here!
I can't figure this Blog stuff. Someone quoted Winston Churchill on 5 min. talk with average voter. He also said never never never give up. Read the Pulitzer Prize lists. America by far has more than any other two nations in the sciences. Must of them in one way or another where funded by the government. You should check out NOAA's draft of their plan of scientific integrity. This is obviously being done to prevent what you where talking about. The meddling of the uneducated in the science of the educated.
NEW BLOG
Quoting kshipre1:
sorry, this is a dumb question on my part, but how do you read this map?

Take for example the down arrow lines to the left of florida and the kind of looping lines to the SE of SE Florida.

I am trying to learn more as I am not as experienced as most everyone on here, thanks

Don't assume that everyone else knows what they are talking about either. There are some with a good understanding, and you will soon work out who they are, but many really don't know that much and are here to learn and pick up information. I include myself in the latter category.
Quoting MoltenIce:
A bit like 2003 I assume?


To be honest I don't remember the 2003 season. I remember 2004 when I was sationed in Jacksonville FLorida and we felt Frances as a Tropical Storm (Strong one). I will research on what he said and will post shortly. But US East Coast should be aware of this.
More like due west


Quoting cat5hurricane:

Not significant. Right.
Quoting Indialanticgirl:


yup same here!


Brevard county represents! :)
1353. rv1pop
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Are you right in line with the NHC forcast? Or do you this still possible swaying furthur east or west with time? I have noticed that the trough over the midwest is a bit weaker than forcasted. I don't know what implications if any this would have?
NURTZ--- read the message--- do not brush off this storm "Just because it might miss you." your question might have a place, but not on this post.
Quoting odinslightning:



by friday??? it's wednesday morning. It's almost to 75W. Miami is 80w......r u sure about what your saying?


Yep, positive. Irene is not going to Miami.

The 2nd TROF (1st one just left) is coming down and will reinforce the weakness that pulls her NW/NNW and then N over the next two days... on Friday/Saturday, the 3rd TROF comes down into the Great Lakes, as stated by the NHC Discussion I posted.

Whether or not Irene continues to move NORTH instead of NNE/NE will be determined by how the TROF sets up at the Great Lakes... and the models won't have a good idea on that until Friday although they seem to favor a NNE motion as of now.
Quoting odinslightning:




yah, NHS i bet is hoping for a hard turn. but what's there 2 do it? nothing....and now she enters the shallow waters around Bermuda (hottest water in the Gulf Stream) with a bullseye on Miami.....


Bermuda? I think you musta skipped out on geography...
1356. Ninj4
Titusville here and watching this thing like a hawk.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
12Z NOGAPS and GFS both have Irene getting pretty close to FL coast...



Has the GFS gone a bit west...wasn't that one of the more easterly models??
Quoting waynehelpardNS:
We will have killer surf in NS if this pans out 120-144hrs

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=nat la_height

Maybe literally as well as figuratively.
1359. snotly
GFS tends to be an east-caster sometimes, no one should let their guard down in the Continental US, NHC is still predicting landfall in NE, hopes and prayers for the SE Bahamas, they don't have the luxury of wish-casting at this point.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
After 24 hours the 12 GFS is south and west of the 6z...

12z:


6z:
1360. Ninj4

Quoting SCwannabe:


Has the GFS gone a bit west...wasn't that one of the more easterly models??
Yes, the GFS has had a consistent easterly bias for a few days now.
I really can't see this getting to Florida, but I am relying on the NHC's expertise. I have a feeling it may stay a bit West of the guidance, but you never know. Like last year with Earl, it is all about timing.
Quoting Vero1:
And every 6 hrs NHC moves the points to the eye.



yah isn't it nifty how NHS can just make their best line, call it gospel, then when it doesnt happen they back up and say...naaa we had it called all along, look at our huge cone of predict....we know better....now washington fund us.......lol


and if nothing else, shift the cone....how can we ever be wrong?


bureaucratic job security = why even think, try, or care?
It probably is not a good idea to get all caught up in the wobbles. It is very common for a strengthening hurricane to wobble along its path, particularly when it is also in the process of making a significant turn. Philliesrock correctly pointed out a while back that for every wobble to the W or WNW there is a more or less equal wobble to the NNW.

So if you are going to fixate on the wobbles, thinking that this may mean that the storm is failing to follow the forecast track, don't forget to notice the wobbles that take place in any and all directions, not just one.
Quoting RitaEvac:


that is a pretty good sized windfield there...ummm, includes even SC...BLAH!!!
Quoting ackee:
90L looking good this morning


Good! At least a little interest in 90L, Yes it is looking healthy and moving west.
I just wanted to jump in here and say that while some like to mock others as 'Florida Wishcasters', I for one appreciate their posts. Being in Florida, I find it reassuring when people take time to explain WHY they don't believe that person is correct or what specifically would have to happen for that to occur. Until this girl is safely past, I don't mind Florida being kept in the discussion at all.
Quoting Ninj4:
Titusville here and watching this thing like a hawk.

T-ville here as well... my 85 yo Mom is in Satellite Beach... If things change, I'll be makin speed to her place... for now its a 25% chance for low end TS force winds... but that was with a storm running up 77W... the wind feild (TS) is projected to be about 160NM to the NW/120 nm to the SW... each degree west of 77 moves the storm ~66 nm closer...
here is another predict for the day....as the storm moves closer and closer to florida, we will see an exponential increase in south floridians coming in here trying to wishcast when what they need to be doing is battening down the hatches....



amazes me,....absolutely amazes me...
Again....Just checking in. I will stick to what I have been saying...Irene will not make that sharp turn and clear 25N by 78W like the track has been saying for two days...East coast of Florida needs to watch this storm closely...
Quoting FLWaterFront:
It probably is not a good idea to get all caught up in the wobbles. It is very common for a strengthening hurricane to wobble along its path, particularly when it is also in the process of making a significant turn. Philliesrock correctly pointed out a while back that for every wobble to the W or WNW there is a more or less equal wobble to the NNW.

So if you are going to fixate on the wobbles, thinking that this may mean that the storm is failing to follow the forecast track, don't forget to notice the wobbles that take place in any and all directions, not just one.


ALL wobbles do not have an equal and opposite wobble. Wobbles can be caused by many things and they may not be simple wobbles, but something more significant impacting the storm. Agreed, one cannot fixate simply on 1 wobble, but has to be looked at over time. In this case the last 2 or 3 satellite pics have shown a westward jog. Just have to see what happens next.
Quoting trinigal:
I just wanted to jump in here and say that while some like to mock others as 'Florida Wishcasters', I for one appreciate their posts. Being in Florida, I find it reassuring when people take time to explain WHY they don't believe that person is correct or what specifically would have to happen for that to occur. Until this girl is safely past, I don't mind Florida being kept in the discussion at all.


That actually holds true for each and every state that was and still is in the cone..not closing both eyes until she is due east of me and i am feeling no effects...
1372. Ninj4

Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

T-ville here as well... my 85 yo Mom is in Satellite Beach... If things change, I'll be makin speed to her place... for now its a 25% chance for low end TS force winds... but that was with a storm running up 77W... the wind feild (TS) is projected to be about 160NM to the NW/120 nm to the SW... each degree west of 77 moves the storm ~66 nm closer...
Bingo. I'm not going to delude myself or anyone else by saying we're going to get a direct hit, because that would just be stupid. But you're point is spot on, and it exactly why I'll be watching our girl until she's well out of our way. 50+mph winds are nothing to be willy nilly about, especially when I have a giant oak tree in my back yard waiting for a reason to come down.
Irenes' satellite silouette reminds me of Andrews'...awesome. definately strengthening i believe
weather channel showing Irene is now moving NW at 12mph
2 hours of west wobble
1377. hamla
strong>Quoting ph34683:My dad is and will be on OBX tomorrow through the storm (even though I told him not to!)WB3CWK is his call sign/handle/ whatever you call it.

hi my call sign is N1RG been a ham since 1957
dont orry about ur dad us hams can handle these type of situations,is he from pa. with the wb3 call sign??
tks rick
n1rg bay st. louis ms.he can look me up on the qrz database
I will say this much for everyone living in FL, GA, SC, NC. Even if the storm does not make a direct landfall on your location, it is important to remember that outer rain bands in tropical systems already contain some level of rotation due to the spin of the storm. Small short lived tornadoes are not out of the question as the storm makes it's closest approach to your respective areas. Just something to keep in mind..
1379. keisa90
As if things couldn't get any hotter. From the NWS Houston...

THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT... EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A CONVERGENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL LEAD TO INTENSE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THE NAM 12 2 METER TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH 111 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AT CLL AND 109 AT HOUSTON.
My biggest concern would be a dramatic shift of the cone that encompasses the E. coast of fla. again. If that did happen we would see mass chaos at the gas pumps and stores with such a large population at the last minute. I have seen it happen too many times. She needs to start turning
WOW

Morphin into a monsta! I can see 125 in 2 PM, Irene pullin this out after all
Quoting kshipre1:
weather channel showing Irene is now moving NW at 12mph


That was the 11am update....
On a different note, plenty of moisture ahead of this wave.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Regardless of what happens, this storm is going to have a GIGANTIC wind field by the time it's in the NE, and that alone is gonna shock people up there. Put it this way, after the quake, and what is awaiting the NE, these folks will think the world is coming to an end literally.


If I'm not mistaken wind-field is most important factor contributing to storm surge. Irene's going to be pushing quite a bit of water.
I think you are safe. the chances of her making a direct westward or wnw movement with the weakness in the high as well as another trough coming down are pretty low

she has alredy begun her NW turn

if the upper level pattern had it where now the ridge was stronger above Irene with weak troughs not dipping down too far south, I could see your concern.

anyhow, with that said, still stay on guard but low chances of hitting e coast of florida directly

effects will be felt but not ones like the bahamas are feeling now, the carolinas will feel as well as the northeast
To all of those "Andrea Gale" wanna be captains up in the North Atlantic. Keep and eye on this, and do not set sail. This one is going that way and it wont be pretty.
1387. MahFL
Seems to be still going west, and weakening, due to land interaction, a weaker storm will go.... dare I say it................................................ ...............WEST !
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anticyclone is moving back over Irene. Which will mean shear will lessen and intensification will continue and will even ramp up more. Cat 4 Irene in the making.

Excellent job ... I had almost forgotten to check this. All shear will diminish.
1389. Relix
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
On a different note, plenty of moisture ahead of this wave.



Its gonna head NW per models.
1390. HCW
Wooo hooo Levi is online
1391. Relix
Quoting MahFL:
Seems to be still going west, and weakening, due to land interaction, a weaker storm will go.... dare I say it................................................ ...............WEST !


Lol. This is a joke right? Weak storms don't necessarily have to always go west. Also the little islands are nothing to a Hurricane. She will just plow through them especially with no mountains.
Quoting wxobsvps:
They say timing is everything:

As I recall also, if Irene becomes large enough, she can begin making her own weather. This might be seen in plumping up the ridge to her east, for example. It doesn't make much to make the East Coast her sandwich to eat.
1393. MahFL
Seems the weakness is now more south of South Carolina, not North Carolina.....


Quoting Relix:


Lol. This is a joke right? Weak storms don't necessarily have to always go west. Also the little islands are nothing to a Hurricane. She will just plow through them especially with no mountains.
Quoting Relix:


Lol. This is a joke right? Weak storms don't necessarily have to always go west. Also the little islands are nothing to a Hurricane. She will just plow through them especially with no mountains.


Weak storms are influenced moreso by lower level winds as opposed to stronger storms being influenced by higher level winds, so weaker storms due tend to go more westerly. Not saying they ALL do or will, but overall speaking........
Quoting Neapolitan:

Precisely. To show this, I've combined the NHC's 3- and 5-day cone from Sunday afternoon with the storm's track as of last evening. It's true that Irene has stayed against the hard right side of that cone--but she's stayed within that cone nonetheless. Bottom line: the NHC's 3-day cone is pretty much rock solid. Folks who ignore it do so at their own peril...

Irene
I was just going to post this as well. I've been tracking it the last few days and the actual points fall right on the NHC projected track (good to at least 27 hours)...VERY accurate! Since it is taking that turn now, FL is in the clear.
Quoting wxobsvps:
Here is 00Z analyzed 500mb heights. Notice the Four Corners high stretches out across the GoM to the west coast of FL



Here is the 12Z analyzed 500mb heights. Notice the Four Corners high has its easten most periphery now extending to the FL panhandle.



What we don't want is the CONUS high to give way in the east, allowing for the weakness to be more pronounced over the eastern CONUS, rather than offshore.

You'll need to click the image below to enlarge in another window to see, but look at the 12Z analyzed 500mb heights along the Eastern Seaboard... 588 and higher up to about the DC area at 587



It is critical that the heights lower off shore for the weakness to develop for Irene to track towards. But Bermuda still at 592, and the western flank of the Atl high nosing toward CONUS is still a concern.

I understand modeling suggest the passage of Irene off shore, but the exact timing and location of the weakness is crucial. I just post this to shed light on what I see as a possible wrinkle.
I think this is to be expected some, as the trough in the northwest breaks down the "four corner" high. Correct? They should have factored this in, but I imagine it's very difficult to get all the wheels locked in. If even one wheel changes, for example, they all will change.

Quoting MahFL:
Seems the weakness is now more south of South Carolina, not North Carolina.....


Excact same point here.
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:


Bermuda? I think you musta skipped out on geography...


lol thinking the same thing
1398. snotly
wasn't there a hurricane that went in the gulf back in the 70-80's and just went all over the place? They said it made its own weather.
Quoting SCwannabe:


How can you say they were dead on...they completely missed the forecast when she went north of hispanola. They had it going over Hispanola and some earlier forecasts we're for it to go south...JMO
True, they did miss the forecast. I believe it is harder to find the COC earlier in its existence and therefore errors in forecast are larger, earlier on.
Chances are about 85% that the storm stays inside this cone. What will make a difference for the east coast of florida is whether its on the left or the right. That difference could be between breezy & tropical storm force winds as it moves up the coast. Look at the size of the storm -- its almost bigger than the state north to south.



1401. MahFL
The eye just got that inner blue ring of warm clouds, which is bad news......


1402. MahFL
New convection on the NE quadrant too.
1403. MahFL
Relax everyone....it jogged back to the NW.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
12Z NOGAPS and GFS both have Irene getting pretty close to FL coast...

do you have a link to these runs?
So now Irene could devastate coastal New England.

There is just one thing I see in the NHC tracking map that just the Bahamas are under a warning but why not for east FL since the storm is so large or S/NC or a TS watch at least?
Quoting cloudburst2011:



reed hurricane gloris was in 1985 not 1991..

Thought that looked wrong... Bob was '91
Quoting Ninj4:

Bingo. I'm not going to delude myself or anyone else by saying we're going to get a direct hit, because that would just be stupid. But you're point is spot on, and it exactly why I'll be watching our girl until she's well out of our way. 50+mph winds are nothing to be willy nilly about, especially when I have a giant oak tree in my back yard waiting for a reason to come down.


That I understand... mine all came down with Charlie and I never replaced them.I hear lots of tree cutting going on in my neighborhood today and we're in the middle of the state!!!! Guess they're still a little worried.
Hello Everyone! I am trying to get a read on the weather here in Myrtle Beach for Friday afternoon. Any opinions would be appreciated. Hoping to breath easy here as the storm stays out far enough from our coast :)
Quoting Joe Bastardi

"Keep in mind the worst ne US storms stay offshore till New england"

Based on the current forecast track and TS winds @ 150 miles NW, Irene would need to hit 78W for Palm Beach County to experience sustained TS winds. That would be a 70 mile jog west. I say only PBC because they are the closest point of approach ATM.
1411. CJ5
According to the latest steering, the gap seems to be closing up. It has certainly been reduced in the last 3 hour presentation. Interesting.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Based on the current forecast track and TS winds @ 150 miles NW, Irene would need to hit 78W for Palm Beach County to experience sustained TS winds. That would be a 70 mile jog west. I say only PBC because they are the closest point of approach ATM.
img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/r efre

wind speeds away from eye

sh/AL0911_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/143914.gif">
In no way shape or form am I wishing this to FL. Just scoping out the potential wind impacts. I realize she will remain well offshore.

With that said.

Delays to the graduated turn NNW @ 2512Z would bring her closer to the coast and running towards 78W.
I'm in Jupiter so I agree with that
the blog has slowed down
Quoting snotly:
wasn't there a hurricane that went in the gulf back in the 70-80's and just went all over the place? They said it made its own weather.
Hurricane Elena was moving north toward Destin then turned ene and got close to to the peninsula of Florida then each turned to a wnw direction and hit the Mississippi Gulf coast. It was infuenced by a high filling in a weakness, it did not make its own weather.
Irene has taken a wobble from NW back to WNW in the last few loops, these wobbles can make a significant difference in who gets the brunt of this hurricane, just saying....
TWC is reporting it may now be going to a cat 4 and that it has a 1 in 3 chance of becoming a cat 5.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:03:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°33'N 74°09'W (22.55N 74.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (330 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,697m (8,848ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 80kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 954mb (28.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the

looking at 120-125mph at the 2 pm advisory imo.
1421. cwf1069
Can I have the link for the steering? Thank you in advance.
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM EDT August 24 2011
=================================

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near an area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the development of a tropical depression during the next day or two

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
There is a HIGH chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Quoting msgambler:
2005 is not "OLD SCHOOL urban legend".



Actually they said this many times in 2008. They also emphasized that NO ONE would be coming to save you so don't bother calling 911.
1424. angiest
Did y'all know there was a new blog?
Invest 90L up to 60% on NHC website
Virginia Beach here....any suggestions as to what to do?
1427. msphar
I hope those folks up North of the NC Cape can grasp what is coming for them. A hurricane in the center of Maine! Boston the next NOLA ? Maybe it will move further East.

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