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Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2009

Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.

Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.


Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.


Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Weather456:
The center is moving towards lower pressure off the coast, with the help of the larger scale features.

Following that blob of heavy convection around 16.5N/83.5W, is that your thinking too?
Quoting Weather456:
Ida jogged east of north

anyone else seeing it?


Seems like it keeps reforming to the east, nearer the water. Nearly off land now. MIMIC
Quoting Weather456:
Ida jogged east of north

anyone else seeing it?

it appears it will emerge not later today but in a matter of hrs.


Yes the Saturday forecast by NHC was really off due partly by the change in direction more north....
Quoting gordydunnot:
Lastly on the strike topic even Andrew didn't hit Miami it was about 15-20 miles south in Homestead. Last Storm to hit Miami directly I believe was Cleo in 1963, 56 years ago so need to get excited down here either. They don't have to get that close to cause total chaos and destruction. Just trust me on that one. No forecast needed.


Actually Andrew's center went over what is now known as Cutler Bay (now a city was just an unincorporated area known as Cutler Ridge back then), halfway between Miami and Homestead, 15 miles in either direction.
Convection really blowing up to the NE of Ida.
Ughh the sea weed is going to cover the gulf beaches again.
Quoting Marlinzfan:


I was going to say, a CAT 2 storm is not considered a major, it has to be a 3 right ?
cat 3 is major hurricane but any hurricane can do major damage just not as widespread
By the way the local mets should blog WU more often. Some of what they are saying is crazy.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Following that blob of heavy convection around 16.5N/83.5W, is that your thinking too?


yea..I mean its only reasonable to think if you are a low pressure you head to areas where its easier (path of least resistance)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Convection really blowing up to the NE of Ida.


Is it raining there in the caymans?
would the panhandle area be affected by IDA?? I read the cedar key area maybe likely target and input anyone??

Hurricane return periods are the frequency at which a certain intensity or category of hurricane can be expected within 75 nm (86 statute miles) of a given location. In simpler terms, a return period of 20 years for a Category 3 or greater hurricane means that on average during the previous 100 years, a Category 3 or greater hurricane passed within 75 nm (86 miles) of that location about five times. We would then expect, on average, an additional five Category 3 or greater hurricanes within that radius over the next 100 years.
Quoting TampaSpin:
By the way the local mets should blog WU more often. Some of what they are saying is crazy.
I don't even listen to our local "mets" anymore. I get better information on here than I do with them. Any other Caymanians on here agree or disagree with this statement ?
Morning all. Funny to be back in here in November looking at a storm. How close is she to emerging back over the water?
Quoting Weather456:


Is it raining there in the caymans?
Off and on but not steady right now.
Weather456 do you think Ida will be weaker than the discussion forecasts over the next 5 days, about the same, or stronger?
1899. OSUWXGUY

You may be correct about an earlier Recon flight, last night AF302 was prepositioned to Homestead.

000
URNT10 KNHC 052347
97779 23474 50259 81100 23800 99005 1058/ /8015
RMK AF302 WXWXA 091105221152302 OB 05
LAST REPORT

Unless it will be taking part in the airshow this weekend at Homestead.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Some might like to put you on ignore....I don't think that is a smart thing to say they should not be watching....JMO
I think he means do not concentrate on 1 spot. If you say 1 s
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Right now Ida is feeling the trough off the east coast accelerating it a bit to the north...


However, this trough departs and is replaced with a sprawling ridge centered over AL/MS.

This should slow down the storm in 24-48 hours time allowing it to sit in a relatively favorable upper level enviroment over very warm waters. All comes down to the inner core redevelopment in my opinion..

Thank you for an very informative blog.
Already coastal flood watches on TX coast due to BOC system
Ida está buscando el agua.
2022. Ossqss
1972 I did not write the quiz, the Palm Beach post did. LoL

1978 Just about all of the passes have been created by weather events. Charlie made a new on in North Captiva when he visited.



Coastal Change Hazards: Hurricanes and Extreme Storms
CaneWarning, Ida could be the Terror of Tampa!

But probably not ;)
Quoting stormhank:
would the panhandle area be affected by IDA?? I read the cedar key area maybe likely target and input anyone??


The panhandle is the convergence point of the NHC forecast, the gale system, and the models. I'm thinking as of now that this is the area in line for the greatest effects of either Ida, the hybrid system or both.

Even if Ida does not move directly into the area, the moisture fetch on the back side could stream into the Panhandle.
couldnt agree more!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't even listen to our local "mets" anymore. I get better information on here than I do with them. Any other Caymanians on here agree or disagree with this statement ?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Ida está buscando el agua.
Concuerdo completamente con esto
2027. P451
Quoting mikatnight:
Can you find this for the Caribbean too ?
Quoting stormhank:
would the panhandle area be affected by IDA?? I read the cedar key area maybe likely target and input anyone??
Right now it is too early to tell. They will know better in a day or 2. There is too many variables.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
couldnt agree more!
Where are you ?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Some might like to put you on ignore....I don't think that is a smart thing to say they should not be watching....JMO


That was my point, the person I responded to said that Tampa needed to not worry or watch

I did not say that, I do think people need to watch this
Quoting P451:
There is still a lot of shear going on in the GOM.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Weather456 do you think Ida will be weaker than the discussion forecasts over the next 5 days, about the same, or stronger?
not 456 but i say at the moment SSIGA it appears if timed right it may spin itself up rather fast as soon as the feet get back in the water iam hoping for big and slow but it looks like it will be small and fast maybe less than 6 hrs to spin back up
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Weather456 do you think Ida will be weaker than the discussion forecasts over the next 5 days, about the same, or stronger?


I do not read the area forecast discussion for the USA. Only the NHC forecast discussion and I think the intensity forecast in the NHC discussion is slightly underestimated. But I do not blame them for underestimating Ida, they are being conservative since intensity forecast are not that easy.
Link
Check out this webcam of downtown, Grand Cayman
2038. P451
Quoting mossyhead:
There is still a lot of shear going on in the GOM.


Yes there is but it is predicted to slacken (move north) as this event unfolds. It will return when the front moves down in a few days. By then these things will be coming together.

The forecast from here on out has a LOT of room for error given how dynamic of a setup we have.

Quoting Weather456:


The panhandle is the convergence point of the NHC forecast, the gale system, and the models. I'm thinking as of now that this is the area in line for the greatest effects of either Ida, the hybrid system or both.

Even if Ida does not move directly into the area, the moisture fetch on the back side could stream into the Panhandle.
Thanks for that information, i live in the same area as Ike. So rain no matter what Ida does.
Looks to spin up pretty good back over water, but its not gonna be like that if it gets to Gulf, will weaken and be much weaker, due to shear, front, hyrbrid system causing pandomoneum
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That was my point, the person I responded to said that Tampa needed to not worry or watch


Oh my bad.....don't put BAP on ignore then....LOL....sorry.....LMAO
Ida is east of the 1800Z point. She is 3 hrs ahead of schedule and further east.
Thanks Stormchaser bad typist and mathematician oh will at least I got the miles south of Miami right but for what ever reason I believe there was a lot more damage in Homestead than Miami proper.Well I was just making the point if a storm hits 50 miles away and you catch a Tornado or a river,stream,floods your neighborhood you got the storm. Hey even try losing your power for two weeks not fun.
Quoting Weather456:


I do not read the area forecast discussion for the USA. Only the NHC forecast discussion and I think the intensity forecast in the NHC discussion is slightly underestimated. But I do not blame them for underestimating Ida, they are being conservative since intensity forecast are not that easy.
weather is there a strong possibility of a hurricane charley style track and Sw Florida dealing with a strong tropical storm, i know its too early but thats what i am seeing at the moment ???
Quoting TampaSpin:


Oh my bad.....don't put BAP on ignore then....LOL....sorry.....LMAO


lol thanks I was like huh?

I figured you might have read the post wrong, maybe it was the way I worded it
Thanks Keeper & 456!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1899. OSUWXGUY

You may be correct about an earlier Recon flight, last night AF302 was prepositioned to Homestead.

000
URNT10 KNHC 052347
97779 23474 50259 81100 23800 99005 1058/ /8015
RMK AF302 WXWXA 091105221152302 OB 05
LAST REPORT

Unless it will be taking part in the airshow this weekend at Homestead.


That's interesting...thanks for the update...you always seem to find obscure, but pertinent info on stuff!

Quite possibly the last storm to fly in for the season, so why not in my book...especially considering that there is essentially no chance of it not hitting land somewhere.
2048. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:
Ida is east of the 1800Z point. She is 3 hrs ahead of schedule and further east.


Couldn't agree more... Awaiting NHC update at 10AM or in 15 min or so... to see what they have to say.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks to spin up pretty good back over water, but its not gonna be like that if it gets to Gulf, will weaken and be much weaker, due to shear, front, hyrbrid system causing pandomoneum


What if Ida becomes absorbed into the system. Shear intensifies the perfect storm through baroclinic forcing. Either way, rain, and lots of rain heading for the Gulf coast.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Thanks Stormchaser bad typist and mathematician oh will at least I got the miles south of Miami right but for what ever reason I believe there was a lot more damage in Homestead than Miami proper.Well I was just making the point if a storm hits 50 miles away and you catch a Tornado or a river,stream,floods your neighborhood you got the storm. Hey even try losing your power for two weeks not fun.
The further south you went the worse the damage was. My parents lived in Kendall then and they lost part of their garage roof and some other neighbors had damage but just a couple miles south damage was terrible.
Morning all,
We are in Key West watchin this storm...I'm new here and tryin to learn still so forgive me if it's already been asked but - chances of Ida hittin the Keys? My parents are in Ft. Myers, we are tryin to figure out if they come here or us go there if this ultimately hits Fl. I love readin all yalls posts! Great site..
NHC is taking a while to post the 10Am Advisory normally its out quick i wonder what is going on ??????
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


lol thanks I was like huh?

I figured you might have read the post wrong, maybe it was the way I worded it
I understood what you meant but afraid to comment and get banned again at this time. Need to be able to ask questions now.
2054. P451
48 Hours of IDA

She really seems to want to explode doesn't she? It will be a very interesting afternoon to say the least.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
weather is there a strong possibility of a hurricane charley style track and Sw Florida dealing with a strong tropical storm, i know its too early but thats what i am seeing at the moment ???


not a strong chance...such a curve would require a strong trough in good timing.

The curve/turn seems to be a little more gentle with Ida
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I understood what you meant but afraid to comment and get banned again at this time. Need to be able to ask questions now.


That wasn't directed at you, it was directed at TampaSpin lol

To reiterate I was not the one who said Tampa didn't need to watch this system, I was responding to someone who said they did not need to watch
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
454 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 06/1200 UTC THRU NOV 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...GULF COAST...

SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE DAY 2 WHICH WILL GIVE A SLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
IN THE GULF. MODELS WASTE NO TIME BRINGING SIGNIFICANT MSTR INTO
THE TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN...THEN UP THE LWR MS VLY. THIS MSTR FLUX
WILL BE AIDED BY SOME BAROCLINIC TRANSPORT FROM A DEVELOPING SFC
WAVE/LOW IN THE GULF. 00Z ECMWF SLOWED THIS PROCESS A BIT...WHICH
BROUGHT IT INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE NCEP CONSENSUS FOR TIMING AND
GENERAL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...FEEDBACK HAS BECOME A PROBLEM WITH
EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE...SO AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WAS EMPLOYED
HERE. THIS GAVE AN INCH TO THE TX/LA COAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

Hmmmm?

I cannot remember who said it but someone said Ida would never pass 84W yesterday....props to them

06/1145 UTC 14.2N 83.9W OVERLAND IDA
06/0545 UTC 13.8N 84.0W OVERLAND IDA
05/2345 UTC 13.6N 84.0W OVERLAND IDA
05/1745 UTC 13.1N 83.7W OVERLAND IDA
05/1145 UTC 12.9N 83.5W T4.0/4.0 IDA
05/0545 UTC 12.5N 83.0W T3.5/3.5 IDA
Good day everyone

Ida looks to be about 10 hours away from the coast as the center is sitting right on the Honduras/Nicaragua border at this time. That assumes a forward speed of 6 to 8 mph.

Shear has been retreating to the N ahead of the system for the past 24 hours and if this continues we could see Ida reintensify much faster than the forecast currently calls for. In fact, intensity forecasts for storms in the NW Caribbean have historically been less than what has actually transpired. I suspect that is due in large part to consistently underestimating the ability of very deep water and very high TCHP to produce rapid intensification time and time again in the same region.

If you look back at Paloma, Gilbert,Wilma and Mitch they all exhibited explosive development in the NW Caribbean.

Ida continues to produce very deep convection offshore the Honduras coastline and it is certainly conceivable this could be a hurricane again within 12 to 18 hours of exiting the coast IMO. The overall structure of the cirulation remains intact and proximity to the coast coupled with low flat swamp for the transit over land have all combined to preserve the system.

I expect to see very deep convection develop over the core within 6 hours of clearing the coast and a greater than 50% chance of Ida regaining hurricane status by 19N.

Finally, there is a large anticyclone now sitting on the N coast of Colombia to the SE of Ida. If this expands to the NW in the near future it could be a wild card in the equation that enhances conditions aloft as it already covers parts of Nic. and Honduras.




Heck she is almost off into water now.....this is way to soon....the jog to the right was a killer. Ida will be a Hurricane again IMO!
Quoting Weather456:


not a strong chance...such a curve would require a strong trough in good timing.

The curve/turn seems to be a little more gentle with Ida
thanks for some reason the Computer models with every run have trended more and more to the right looks like IDA may move over the yucatan channel and begin the NE BEND??????
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That wasn't directed at you, it was directed at TampaSpin lol

To reiterate I was not the one who said Tampa didn't need to watch this system, I was responding to someone who said they did not need to watch
I know, I just meant that I wanted to back you up but wouldn't chance it since what they were saying might make some not as vigilant as they need to be. Ida needs to be watched and monitored by us in the western Caribbean and those along the gulf coast.
Live in Spotts Newlands
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where are you ?
100 mph storm out of the question coming up? anyone?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know, I just meant that I wanted to back you up but wouldn't chance it since what they were saying might make some not as vigilant as they need to be. Ida needs to be watched and monitored by us in the western Caribbean and those along the gulf coast.


Ah ok lol, misunderstandings solved lol
Good day everyone

Ida looks to be about 10 hours away from the coast as the center is sitting right on the Honduras/Nicaragua border at this time. That assumes a forward speed of 6 to 8 mph.


I think 10 hrs is a little too long

LINK
Stormwatcher I new several people that where in their bath tubs for hours with mattresses over there heads.A lady I knew went down to check her parents old house and couldn't even find it and she grew up there.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Heck she is almost off into water now.....this is way to soon....the jog to the right was a killer. Ida will be a Hurricane again IMO!


tellin u... (slang for yea ur right)
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Live in Spotts Newlands
Ok. You getting any rain or breeze down there ? Looks like we will have a great(sarcastic) holiday weekend.
Looks like IDA will exit the coast by around 1-3PM EST And will Quickly reorganize Forecast track will likely be shifted to the right
WOW, look at the convection firing off in the waters, once the LLC moves in, watch out.. This is what I was referring to last night..
lol

7 minutes to 11am here. I cud imagine the state of the NHC.
Quoting Weather456:
Good day everyone

Ida looks to be about 10 hours away from the coast as the center is sitting right on the Honduras/Nicaragua border at this time. That assumes a forward speed of 6 to 8 mph.


I think 10 hrs is a little too long

LINK


One degree approximately to clear the coast.
2074. IKE
...IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...
10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 15.0°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

...IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IDEA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Quoting gordydunnot:
Stormwatcher I new several people that where in their bath tubs for hours with mattresses over there heads.A lady I knew went down to check her parents old house and couldn't even find it and she grew up there.
I was in Cayman and watching the coverage and was scared to death for my parents. My father was a Captain with the Dade County FD and had to be out while my mother was home alone. So much sadness. Were many people killed in Andrew ? I am sure I read it but don't remember.
light rain this morning, wind right now has calmed down a bit I would guess 10 -15 mph right now
Wow they are saying it will be extratropical in 5 days.
2080. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
lol

7 minutes to 11am here. I cud imagine the state of the NHC.
10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 15.0°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.0N 84.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 15.7N 84.1W 30 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.1N 85.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
2083. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow they are saying it will be extratropical in 5 days.


Sure do...

120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
Quoting Weather456:


tellin u... (slang for yea ur right)


456
I'm getting a very ill feeling in my gut with this one....
Extra-tropical doesn't mean weaker though lol

looks like that could be the point where all the energy comes together
2086. P451
Quoting RitaEvac:
100 mph storm out of the question coming up? anyone?


Not in the least. I'm thinking CAT 2 based on how she's already exploding over the waters.

If that NE jog continues as a trend? Man, I just don't know, could pull a Paloma and rapidly intensify as well.

It could also be temporary and could resume a northward course and potentially be a part of a GOM 'perfect storm' in a couple of days.

Just SUCH a dynamic setup that errors are going to be LARGE even at 12 hours ahead.

IDA has been a wait and see storm from the start and will likely continue to be so.

She's sneaky and she's tricky. I don't see why that would change.

Forecasting this scenario has extremely low confidence IMO.
Quoting IKE:


It should go in around the Cedar Key area.
Quoting IKE:
...IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...
10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 15.0°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
.4 N and .2 E
Is this right ?
Quoting IKE:


Sure do...

120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


So it looks like they expect all these systems to merge and be one big mess. That's how I read that.
The center will move offshore around 5 pm est this afternoon.
2091. crankin
TampaSpin, what are the local mets saying? How do you find their blogs? I am in Odessa, FL
They continue to keep the intensity at 45 knots, which is a slight underestimation, IMO.
Quoting CaneWarning:


So it looks like they expect all these systems to merge and be one big mess. That's how I read that.


Which could be worse for Florida than if she were just a tropical storm
2094. P451
Quoting Weather456:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.0N 84.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 15.7N 84.1W 30 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.1N 85.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


That's IDA? I don't know about that.

Besides, the NHC goofed on her from the start - and even over land she was going to spend 72 hours and potentially dissipate.

Well, make that 36 hours and holding a solid structure and already exploding in the northern quadrant over water.

So, well, again, this entire setup is a near ZERO confidence forecast.

Just way too dynamic, the models are going to be clueless, and our forecasters have forgotten how to read a scenario and forecast it without the aide of the models.

2095. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Sure do...

120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


And hopefully that will be the end of the hurricane season.

I hope. I didn't say it would be. Don't flame me.
Quoting Weather456:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.0N 84.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 15.7N 84.1W 30 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.1N 85.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


I don't think i agree with NHC forecast in strength at this time now...before i did, but not now!
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Which could be worse for Florida than if she were just a tropical storm


My thinking exactly. This has the potential to be a very large severe weather event.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Extra-tropical doesn't mean weaker though lol

looks like that could be the point where all the energy comes together


Exactly, an extratropical storm could eventually be more powerful than Ida due to wind shear
2099. P451
Quoting CaneWarning:


So it looks like they expect all these systems to merge and be one big mess. That's how I read that.


It would seem so but the intensity seems to be WAY lower than what it will likely be. Not sure why or what they seem to see with that.

But, whatever, we all know this is a highly dynamic setup and the errors on this one could be huge.

...catch you all later for now.
Winds forecasted are way below my expectations
With each new forecast, the track gets faster and further right...
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think i agree with NHC forecast in strength at this time now...before i did, but not now!


Read post 2029.
2103. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think i agree with NHC forecast in strength at this time now...before i did, but not now!


Not in the LEAST.

conditions across most of the gulf will be very hostile to say the least for any significant development. Looks like a big rain/severe weather maker for parts of florida next week.

adrian
The EXTRATROPICAL NHC is because it emereges with the cold front....this not going to play out well for someone...SEVERE Weather with Tornado's are for sure a very strong possibility likely to occur.
2106. SQUAWK
Why does there appear to be such a disparity between the consensus on this blog and the NHC? Seems most here are calling for rapid strengthening to a hurricane and NHC is TS at best. WTFO??????
I do not agree with the NHC forecast in the near term but I'm not sweating. Did not agree with their track in the first place and for good reason.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think i agree with NHC forecast in strength at this time now...before i did, but not now!


I agree. I've seen too many systems exhibit rapid intensification in the NW Caribbean and this year nothing has traversed that area to cause any upwelling.High octane awaits Ida once it clears land.
2109. P451
Quoting IKE:


And hopefully that will be the end of the hurricane season.

I hope. I didn't say it would be. Don't flame me.


Except that that potential super storm could ravage Florida badly anyway.

So regardless, Florida really needs to keep a watch on this.

Now, will this be the last TROPICAL system we see? Probably but you never know with those oddball hybrids that pop up in the east Atlantic some times.

I'm guessing Ida WILL be the last but who is to say....
2110. WxLogic
10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 15.0°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree. I've seen too many systems exhibit rapid intensification in the NW Caribbean and this year nothing has traversed that area to cause any upwelling.High octane awaits Ida once it clears land.
This is my biggest fear. You think any chance of a Paloma scenario ?
hate when twc names a storm what was that one? super storm. about a decade ago sprouted tornadoes this one could be another bad one for florida
The Gulf for the first time this season will be churned into a frenzy with all the mess setting up. If you came on here in May/June for the 09 season and I'd tell you that you would have to wait till November for the action you'd think I was nuts.
IKE mail
Quoting P451:


Not in the LEAST.



Why don't you believe NHC, because they aren't forecasting a hurricane to hit Florida. This isn't August in the Gulf. As Adrian just posted, the Gulf will be very hostile next week for any kind of strengthening, especially with another front coming down. This will be nothing more than a beneficial rainmaker for central and south Florida.
New blog
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Can you find this for the Caribbean too ?


Can't seem to find a map like the ones for the US. Check out this: Climatology of Caribbean Hurricanes
2118. MahFL
Extra tropical normally means stronger winds away from the center, thus affecting a larger area.
Stormwatcher there where very few deaths with Andrew a lot of people followed Brain Norcross tip to get in bathtub and take shelter.Thats what made him famous. It was basically a small storm geographically speaking. So not a lot of flooding damage. One of the interesting pictures was black point marina. You have not and probably never will see such a pile of boats. I had a friend who had a large boat down there his insurance agent told not to even try to look for his boat.
Ida is commencing a NNE motion now imo and is very close within about 3-4 hours of emerging offshore.
Quoting IKE:


And hopefully that will be the end of the hurricane season.

I hope. I didn't say it would be. Don't flame me.

you should be flogged... how dare you wish/down...
Ok Im with you
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree. I've seen too many systems exhibit rapid intensification in the NW Caribbean and this year nothing has traversed that area to cause any upwelling.High octane awaits Ida once it clears land.




Kman wait till it hits the Gulf Stream Loop...watch how fast she explodes......that is like a bomb just in front of her.
You guys are like hobos who just found a "C-Note". MEAT'S BACK ON THE MENU BOYS!!!!
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree. I've seen too many systems exhibit rapid intensification in the NW Caribbean and this year nothing has traversed that area to cause any upwelling.High octane awaits Ida once it clears land.


20kts of shear is not ideal for rapid intensification.
Post 2059-Kman.
Good morning Kman.Do you anticipate a more easterly componant to Ida as it moves north? Currently around 83.7W,it wouldn't take much movement to see it at 81 W (by the time it reaches 19N),if it started shifting eastward upon leaving the Honduran coast.
Quoting mikatnight:


Can't seem to find a map like the ones for the US. Check out this: Climatology of Caribbean Hurricanes
Thanks. I noticed Grand Cayman was one of the ones in red.
Good Morning All,

Ida looks as if she will exit land and emerge back over open water a little sooner than expected. Visible imagery Link suggests that Ida's center is a little east of the forecast points.

Heavy convection persists in Ida's northern and north-western semi-circle. While most of the deep convection had diminished over the center, strong bands of thunderstorms off to Ida's north and east have continued to draw moisture into the system. The center has been partially insulted which seems to have helped the depression to maintain its closed center of circulation. The topography of that particular area of Honduras and Nicaragua has also allowed for less disruption of the center. The center should re-emerge sometime this afternoon and providing the TD can continue to maintain good structure over the next few hours, I believe it could become a TS quite quickly upon it’s exit. Cyclones in relatively favorable environments tend to respond quickly to water once they exit land.
2128. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is my biggest fear. You think any chance of a Paloma scenario ?


No, I do not. Paloma was picked up by a front that was digging to the SE across the Yucatan when it was near 17 N. If you think back to then, Paloma started accelerating from about that position and came up from the SW.

I can remember seeing the SW windflow aloft digging South very quickly as Paloma came up and based on that I made the call of a pass 25 miles off East End at a time when it was forecasted to pass W of us.

While there is always a chance of a track change I place the odds at less than 20% of it happening. I see N to NNW through 20 degrees
Dr. Masters has a new blog
Quoting hurricane23:
conditions across most of the gulf will be very hostile to say the least for any significant development. Looks like a big rain/severe weather maker for parts of florida next week.

adrian


Just a rainmaker is your forecast....LOL....OK I believe it will cause a little more damage somewhere besides just being a rainmaker....
Quoting gordydunnot:
Stormwatcher there where very few deaths with Andrew a lot of people followed Brain Norcross tip to get in bathtub and take shelter.Thats what made him famous. It was basically a small storm geographically speaking. So not a lot of flooding damage. One of the interesting pictures was black point marina. You have not and probably never will see such a pile of boats. I had a friend who had a large boat down there his insurance agent told not to even try to look for his boat.
Well, I believe you about the boats because after Ivan in Cayman boats were found miles away from where they were and even buildings were found a few miles away.
Quoting hurricane23:


20kts of shear is not ideal for rapid intensification.


Shear has been retreating to the N
Quoting kmanislander:


No, I do not. Paloma was picked up by a front that was digging to the SE across the Yucatan when it was near 17 N. If you think back to then, Paloma started accelerating from about that position and came up from the SW.

I can remember seeing the SW windflow aloft digging South very quickly as Paloma came up and based on that I made the call of a pass 25 miles off East End at a time when it was forecasted to pass W of us.

While there is always a chance of a track change I place the odds at less than 20% of it happening. I see N to NNW through 20 degrees
Thanks.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just a rainmaker is your forecast....LOL....OK I believe it will cause a little more damage somewhere besides just being a rainmaker....
In Adrian's comment he said "rain/SEVERE WEATHER."
i dis agree with you kmanislander
everyone needs to stay calm and have patience... its not like this is going to be a Cat 3 or higher. Forecast is it being a moderate tropical storm... which means little wind..little surge (if any) and alot of rain. Right now the NHC has this as no big deal.

Now I think it may become a hurricane.. but I still want to see how fast this develops over the next 12-48hrs... shear will be a slight problem..but not as much early on as it will be moving in tandam with the shear axis. Dont ask me or really anyone about landfall..its still 5 days away (if at all).. we will know more by Sunday morning.
I think a new center may be trying to form under the deep convection. If that happens, this could bomb right back up to a cat 1.