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Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. TomSal
Weather 456 - The picture of Georges in your Update made me remember my daughter was working on Saba then, experienced that monster and has stated she never, never, never will go through another hurricane again. I remember sitting at my computer throughout the night it blew over Saba, just worried sick. Mother Nature is a huge force to be reconed with. I enjoy your Updates. Thanks. Tom
Quoting java162:
now this has to be the most boring hurricane season in a very long time!!!!!!!! no landfalls, its just a waste of a season

People living in potential landfall areas might consider this a perfect situation ...
Quoting Dakster:
Status on FredEX? Did the energizer bunny run out of juice yet??
In my opinion 07L is dead, but still should be watched because models do develop it. On satellite it looks very poor because upper level winds have increased, colder waters are factoring in, and it is being just plain killed by the trough that it is NOW attached to.
1504. Dakster
Watcher123 - I agree completely. I am still trying to figure out why it is taking us so long to make it back to the moon. Didn't we do this already?

Shouldn't the second time be quicker/easier than the first time?
1495:

There is still a tropical vortex visible at about 28n and 72w. I believe this has reached its farthest point North, for now, and is heading SW or WSW.

The vortex that tried to form to the south has fallen apart, I think.
1506. Dakster
Thanks MiamiHurricane009.
1507. Grothar
Quoting Weather456:



lol, well for me, i live in the safe zone.

Also I have been inside the crater, like many others. But getting out is rather frightening since the walls are nearly 90 degrees (vertical)


Nice blog Weather456, got some good pics. Never been there. How are the resort acommodation? You port reminds me of some seatowns in the fjord region in Norway. Very nice.
Quoting Dakster:
Thanks MiamiHurricane09.
No problem
Daytona locals tried to surf Bill - waves coming a little too parallell to shore except for a couple of spots.
1511. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


Nice blog Weather456, got some good pics. Never been there. How are the resort acommodation? You port reminds me of some seatowns in the fjord region in Norway. Very nice.


When I was younger I had alot of fun in the back of a Fjord.
1512. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:
Watcher123 - I agree completely. I am still trying to figure out why it is taking us so long to make it back to the moon. Didn't we do this already?

Shouldn't the second time be quicker/easier than the first time?


Hey Dakster!! How are you doing? I think the reason we haven't been back to the moon is that we 'have not been asked back' They said we left too much trash on the ground the last time we visited them!!! How do you think the blog will be today?
Quoting Grothar:


Nice blog Weather456, got some good pics. Never been there. How are the resort acommodation? You port reminds me of some seatowns in the fjord region in Norway. Very nice.


The largest hotel is the Marriott with the Royal Beach Casino but there are numerous inns, guest houses, villas and other hotels scattered around the islands.
1514. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


When I was younger I had alot of fun in the back of a Fjord.


Hope is wasn't a fjor fjairlane? Bad boy!
watcher123,

I kinda agree with you that I would like to see NASA do more in my lifetime, like when President Bush proposed manned missions to the moon. But my question is, do they have or is getting the funding for such activities?
Not looking too spiffy:



Definitely not looking well:



1517. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


Hope is wasn't a fjor fjairlane? Bad boy!


I'll never tell...

I think the blog will be a little slow, since there isn't anything out there...
1518. Grothar
Quoting Weather456:


The largest hotel is the Marriott with the Royal Beach Casino but there are numerous inns, guest houses, villas and other hotels scattered around the islands.


Forgot to ask, too! Do they know when the last eruption was. That is a beautifully formed volcano.
As you can see 07L is attached to a trough so that means that development is very very unlikely, unless it becomes sub-tropical. I would say right now we should discount 07L. 98L on the other hand should be monitored because since it is very weak it will not feel any affects of a weakness or a trough, so this little critter can end up anywhere between the Caribbean or on your front door.

Quoting Grothar:


Forgot to ask, too! Do they know when the last eruption was. That is a beautifully formed volcano.


The last verified eruptions from the volcano were about 1,800 years ago, while reports of possible eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain.

Nevis Peak is also another volcano on the sister island and some have theorize that both are connected by one vent thus if one erupts the other will. I'm not sure if this is true.

Nevis peak

1521. tacoman
hurricane season seems to be over for 2009 all i can say is the south is going to have periods of snow and ice storms this winter due to el nino..RIP FRED you gave it a good try ..
Quoting BahaHurican:
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 28N71W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT FROM 31N70W TO 25N71W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N58W TO 21N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N62W.

------------------

NHC isn't even calling it "remnants of Fred" anymore...... I think they are saying "dead in the water". Now, if something does eventuate out of that little area, will they call it Fred again, or move to the next name?

I am sure it will be called 07L then Fred
20/1145 UTC 15.4N 45.6W TOO WEAK 98L

I give up, buh bye 07L buh bye 98L.
1524. Grothar
Does anyone know if tornadodude got banned. Didn't realize it but haven't seen him around. I hope not, he keeps the blog light and funny. Although, if I had him in one of my classes, he would probably be placed in the back. Only kidding!!
I am impressed... Weather 456's blog today is not only one of the most informative, it also has some beautiful pictures :)
Quoting Weather456:


The last verified eruptions from the volcano were about 1,800 years ago, while reports of possible eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain.

Nevis Peak is also another volcano on the sister island and some have theorize that both are connected by one vent thus if one erupts the other will. I'm not sure if this is true.

Nevis peak


Mount Liamuiga volcano, comprising the NW end of St. Kitts Island, contains a steep-walled, 1-km-wide summit crater, which contained a shallow lake until 1959. Two lava domes are located on the upper western flank, and intrusion of a 3rd dome, Brimstone Hill, on the lower SW flank uplifted a Pleistocene limestone block. Liamuiga volcano (sometimes referred to as Mount Misery) is the youngest of 3 NW-migrating volcanic centers on St. Kitts. Its most recent major eruptions less than 2000 years ago produced pyroclastic flows and mudflows whose deposits underlie populated coastal areas. Reports of possible historical eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain. An earthquake swarm occurred from late 1988 to early 1989, causing small landslides in the summit crater; another earthquake swarm took place in 1999-2000. Active fumaroles are found in the summit crater of Liamuiga.
98L has been discounted as an invest. Tropics are now quite and there is not much in the way of waves over Africa.
1528. tacoman
yes taz banned him for using fowl language..
1529. Dakster
Problem with "mining the moon or mars" is that it is EXTREMELY cost prohibitive to bring the material back to Earth. It would have to be more precious than GOLD to make it "worth it" for private enterprise - at least in the short term.

Something like a gallon of water costs $50,000 to send up to the ISS....

In the very far, distant future, I can see us "Earthlings" colonizing Mars and the Moon.
Quoting Weather456:


The last verified eruptions from the volcano were about 1,800 years ago, while reports of possible eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain.

Nevis Peak is also another volcano on the sister island and some have theorize that both are connected by one vent thus if one erupts the other will. I'm not sure if this is true.

Nevis peak


Nevis Peak is a dormant stratovolcano which is located in the centre of the island of Nevis, West Indies. The mountain rises to a height of 3,232 feet, or 985 meters. There have been no eruptions since prehistory, but there are active fumaroles and hot springs on the coastal slopes of the island, and these represent low-level volcanic activity.
Quoting Weather456:
watcher123,

I kinda agree with you that I would like to see NASA do more in my lifetime, like when President Bush proposed manned missions to the moon. But my question is, do they have or is getting the funding for such activities?


Not really. Most of the existing space telescope plans are small individual telescopes. I have seen some mention of an array, but even that looks like a "small" project, the equivalent of 3 or 4 hubbles.


As for colonies and mining bases, they know how to do them, it is clearly possible with existing technologies, it just seems there is no funding. I think the general public has the impression that space mining and colonization is purely "science fiction," so that might explain the lack of funding.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
98L has been discounted as an invest. Tropics are now quite and there is not much in the way of waves over Africa.


I don't know what you're talking about that there are no waves over Africa. Last time I checked, there was a huge one over 3E last night. Grothar showed me it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nevis Peak is a dormant stratovolcano which is located in the centre of the island of Nevis, West Indies. The mountain rises to a height of 3,232 feet, or 985 meters. There have been no eruptions since prehistory, but there are active fumaroles and hot springs on the coastal slopes of the island, and these represent low-level volcanic activity.


Ok that was Nevis Peak but the thread was on the last verified eruption was for Mount Liamuiga on Saint Kitts.
1534. Grothar
Quoting tacoman:
yes taz banned him for using fowl language..


Do you know if it is permanent? Can't imagine tornadodude using foul language. Does not appear to be in his character.
1535. tacoman
well cane i hate to inform you of this but it disintergrated like our boy FRED...RIP
Quoting watcher123:


Not really. Most of the existing space telescope plans are small individual telescopes. I have seen some mention of an array, but even that looks like a "small" project, the equivalent of 3 or 4 hubbles.


As for colonies and mining bases, they know how to do them, it is clearly possible with existing technologies, it just seems there is no funding. I think the general public has the impression that space mining and colonization is purely "science fiction," so that might explain the lack of funding.


Ohok, well that explains alot.
1537. tacoman
NO I IMAGINE MAYBE 48 HOURS AND HE WILL BE BACK..
Quoting tacoman:
yes taz banned him for using fowl language..


Taz did what now? Is that true? Taz is an admin?
1539. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


I don't know what you're talking about that there are no waves over Africa. Last time I checked, there was a huge one over 3E last night. Grothar showed me it.




This is what it looks like now.
Still a swirl but not much happening with it. Sorry canes!
1540. tacoman
YES IT WAS LAST NIGHT LATE WHEN HEGOT ALL UPSET ABOUT FRED AND USED SOME FOWL LANGUAGE ON SOMEONE IN HERE..
1541. Grothar
Quoting tacoman:
YES IT WAS LAST NIGHT LATE WHEN HEGOT ALL UPSET ABOUT FRED AND USED SOME FOWL LANGUAGE ON SOMEONE IN HERE..


Thanks Tacoman, I'll scroll back and see what he said.
Quoting Weather456:


Taz did what now? Is that true? Taz is an admin?


No
1543. tacoman
y/w man
1544. Dakster
Quoting watcher123:


Not really. Most of the existing space telescope plans are small individual telescopes. I have seen some mention of an array, but even that looks like a "small" project, the equivalent of 3 or 4 hubbles.


As for colonies and mining bases, they know how to do them, it is clearly possible with existing technologies, it just seems there is no funding. I think the general public has the impression that space mining and colonization is purely "science fiction," so that might explain the lack of funding.


Could Be? Could also be that we have other priorities at the moment. Health Care, Auto Bailouts, Banking Bailouts? Taking all the science money.

The company that won the Ansari X-Prize should be involved in the program too. THe proved something with a plane type, take off and landing vehicle that can make it into space.
Quoting Grothar:




This is what it looks like now.
Still a swirl but not much happening with it. Sorry canes!


It's alright. Not as impressive as last night. Still has some convection.
1546. IKE
20/1145 UTC 15.4N 45.6W TOO WEAK 98L

What a downward MJO will do to an invest....

1547. IKE
Like someone took a wet washrag and squeezed the water out of it.
1548. tacoman
lol ike you are so dramatic..
Please Ignore Tacoman thank you


i cant ban any one be be come am NOT a Admin but i would love to be come one some day
1550. tacoman
taz you flagged his post a few times i was here and you commented on it..
1551. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


It's alright. Not as impressive as last night. Still has some convection.


How goes it canes?
Quoting Dakster:


Could Be? Could also be that we have other priorities at the moment. Health Care, Auto Bailouts, Banking Bailouts? Taking all the science money.

The company that won the Ansari X-Prize should be involved in the program too. THe proved something with a plane type, take off and landing vehicle that can make it into space.



In about 20-30 years, assuming we don't kill ourselves in WWIII started by some lunatic muslim or N. Korea, healthcare will no longer be a problem.

Based on Moore's law, Nanotechnology and quantum computing will allow for the removal of almost all forms of cancer, viral, and bacterial infections, without the use of antibiotics, vaccines, or anti-virals.

Imagine recieving an injection of nano-scale cell-sized robots, controlled by a computer on a wrist watch sized device. This computer can recieve regular updates for fighting new infections. The robots will identify pathogens and exterminate them. This is where healthcare will be in 20-30 years.
1553. Dakster
Quoting watcher123:



In about 20-30 years, assuming we don't kill ourselves in WWIII started by some lunatic muslim or N. Korea, healthcare will no longer be a problem.

Based on Moore's law, Nanotechnology and quantum computing will allow for the removal of almost all forms of cancer, viral, and bacterial infections, without the use of antibiotics, vaccines, or anti-virals.

Imagine recieving an injection of nano-scale cell-sized robots, controlled by a computer on a wrist watch sized device. This computer can recieve regular updates for fighting new infections. The robots will identify pathogens and exterminate them. This is where healthcare will be in 20-30 years.


Would be neat... But you think it is only 20-30 years away? I would have guessed further away.
Quoting Dakster:
Watcher123 - I agree completely. I am still trying to figure out why it is taking us so long to make it back to the moon. Didn't we do this already?

Shouldn't the second time be quicker/easier than the first time?
Other superpowers in the world as China,Russia and the European Union are focus on a more significant conquest, planet Mars, as a future target in the next 30 years; and this time one of them hope to beat the U.S.
Quoting Grothar:


How goes it canes?


Pretty well. But I have nobody to watch on TV today since the Dolphins don't play until tomorrow. How about yourself?
Quoting watcher123:



In about 20-30 years, assuming we don't kill ourselves in WWIII started by some lunatic muslim or N. Korea, healthcare will no longer be a problem.

Based on Moore's law, Nanotechnology and quantum computing will allow for the removal of almost all forms of cancer, viral, and bacterial infections, without the use of antibiotics, vaccines, or anti-virals.

Imagine recieving an injection of nano-scale cell-sized robots, controlled by a computer on a wrist watch sized device. This computer can recieve regular updates for fighting new infections. The robots will identify pathogens and exterminate them. This is where healthcare will be in 20-30 years.


30 years ago we were told that by now we would have colonized the Moon and Mars...the promise of technology is ofteen hollow...at the end of the day, PC's and the internet are just an efficient delivery system for gossip and porn...Where's my jetpack?
Quoting watcher123:



In about 20-30 years, assuming we don't kill ourselves in WWIII started by some lunatic muslim or N. Korea, healthcare will no longer be a problem.

Based on Moore's law, Nanotechnology and quantum computing will allow for the removal of almost all forms of cancer, viral, and bacterial infections, without the use of antibiotics, vaccines, or anti-virals.

Imagine recieving an injection of nano-scale cell-sized robots, controlled by a computer on a wrist watch sized device. This computer can recieve regular updates for fighting new infections. The robots will identify pathogens and exterminate them. This is where healthcare will be in 20-30 years.


Tempted to pull up some quotes from 50 years ago saying that cancer would be easily cured.. or any other ailment.....
1558. Grothar
Tropics chat?
1559. tacoman
lol nothingto chat about in the tropics..
Quoting Grothar:
Tropics chat?


I don't see why not.
1561. tacoman
what are we going to chat about open air lol
Quoting Dakster:


Would be neat... But you think it is only 20-30 years away? I would have guessed further away.
I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.
1563. Dakster
I'd say we do it together for the benefit of all.. But that is rational thinking again. Just like the ISS...
FRED DIED! this is great news, I am sure we all love it!
1565. tacoman
the die hards dont love it they have a huge hangover right now lol.
1566. Dakster
Sorry Presslord. No jetpacks yet. But you can surf for porn 20 times faster than 10 years ago.

I still keep waiting for the car that will fly too.
Orca,

goat water is a stew made from goat meat but you can use mutton. It is spicy and have the consistency of clam chowder.
Quoting Dakster:
I'd say we do it together for the benefit of all.. But that is rational thinking again. Just like the ISS...


the sad fact is that virtually no useful science has come from the ISS...
who will be the next person to give us a situation that if ex fred does this and that he can make it and hit Florida?
1571. tacoman
reedzone is probably sleeping he needs to get some sleep he took it hard when fred did not regenerate...i was worried about him...
Quoting caneswatch:


I don't see why not.
Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.
1557:

The difference here is Moore's law has been tried and tested. In fact, we have been on the "high" end of Moore's law for along time now.

Fifty years ago, all mechanical computing devices in the world combined would not even remotely equal what you can do with the space of a wrist watch today.

If computer circuitry doubles in transistors per unit area every 18-24 months, which it has, then 30 years is between 15 and 20 doublings. This means computers will be somewhere between 32,768 and 1,048,576 times smaller for the same processing power, or that much stronger for the same size.

Now there is a real limit to Moore's law, however, quantum computers open up an entire new dimension.

Several months back, the first real 2-bit quantum processor was completed, tested and shown to work. Basicly, it is just a matter of miniaturization and generalization now.


This will eventually allow circuitry the size of the organelles of a cell: radio transmitters and recievers, processors, nano scale tools, etc.
Dak...LOL...I stand corrected...
Quoting sebastianflorida:
who will be the next person to give us a situation that if ex fred does this and that he can make it and hit Florida?


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys
1576. Murko
Quoting jurakantaino:
I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.


Moore's Law doesn't take into account the wavelength of the electrons used to pass information along. There's only so small you can go. They will be running into this problem in less than 10 years.
1577. Patrap
NASA Publishes Report About International Space Station Science
Thu Sep 10, 2009 10:43am EDT



HOUSTON, Sept. 10 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Advances in the fight against
food poisoning, new methods for delivering medicine to cancer cells, and
better materials for future spacecraft are among the results published in a
NASA report detailing scientific research accomplishments made aboard the
International Space Station during its first eight years.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20081007/38461LOGO)

The report includes more than 100 science experiments ranging from bone
studies to materials' research.

"This report represents a record of science accomplishments during assembly
and summarizes peer-reviewed publications to date," said Julie Robinson,
program scientist for the station at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston.
"As we enter the final year of station assembly, this report highlights the
capabilities and opportunities for space station research after assembly is
complete."

One of the most compelling results reported is the confirmation that the
ability of common germs to cause disease increases during spaceflight, but
that changing the growth environment of the bacteria can control this
virulence. The Effect of Spaceflight on Microbial Gene Expression and
Virulence experiment identified increased virulence of space-flown Salmonella
typhimurium, a leading cause of food poisoning. New research on subsequent
station missions will target development of a vaccine for this widespread
malady.

Another experiment produced a potential medical advance, demonstrating a new
and powerful method for delivering drugs to targets in the human body.
Microgravity research on the station was vital to development of miniature,
liquid-filled balloons the size of blood cells that can deliver medicine
directly to cancer cells. The research was conducted for the
Microencapsulation Electrostatic Processing System experiment.

One of the most prolific series of investigations aboard the station tests how
spacecraft materials withstand the harsh space environment. The results of the
Materials International Space Station Experiment already have been used to
develop solar cells for future commercial station cargo ships. This experiment
has significantly reduced the time needed to develop new satellite systems,
such as solar cells and insulation materials, and paved the way for materials
to be used in new NASA spacecraft such as the Orion crew capsule.

The report compiles experiment results collected from the first 15 station
missions, or expeditions, from 2000 to 2008. Results of some of the summarized
investigations are complete. Preliminary results are available from other
continuing investigations.

NASA's research activities on the station span several scientific areas,
including exploration technology development; microgravity research in the
physical and biological sciences; human physiology research; Earth science and
education.

The report details 22 different technology demonstrations; 33 physical science
experiments; 27 biological experiments; 32 experiments focused on the human
body; Earth observations and educational activities. In addition to science
important to long-duration human spaceflights, most findings also offer new
understanding of methods or applications relevant to life on Earth.

In 2008, station laboratory space and research facilities tripled with the
addition of the European Space Agency's Columbus Laboratory and the Japan
Aerospace Exploration Agency's three Kibo scientific modules, adding to the
capabilities already provided in NASA's Destiny Laboratory. In 2009, the
number of crew members increased from three to six, greatly increasing crew
time available for research.

The stage is set for increased station scientific return when assembly and
outfitting of the research facility is completed in 2010 and its full
potential as a national and international laboratory is realized. Engineers
and scientists from around the world are working together to refine
operational relationships and build on experiences to ensure maximum use of
the expanded capabilities.

The International Space Station Program Scientist Office at NASA's Johnson
Space Center published the report. A link to the full NASA Technical
Publication, which provides an archival record of U.S.-sponsored research
through Expedition 15, is available at:

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20090029998_2009030907.pdf

For more information about the space station, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/station

Quoting jurakantaino:
Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.


Look at post 1475, the CFS' shear forecast lowers the shear while there's an upward MJO.
Pat...check out some independent evaluations of that...NASA is hardly an unbiased source...
1566:

Don't need flying cars, and don't really need a majority of the airline industry. It is a left-over relic of a past age. There is no good reason to have physical business trips when you have internet.


Honest to God, I've come up with several ways to almost totally do away with the Accounting and tax prep industries through use of 100% digitization of all currency and transactions, however, I have been informed that this probably violates the 4th ammendment. In my system, it would be completely impossible to profit through criminal activity, and tax evasion would be impossible also, because all transactions and potential deductions and credits are recorded and calculated by an automated system.

In the future when Robotics reaches its true potential, existing economic models will totally collapse, as there will be no need for 99.9% of existing job markets. This will give rise to a self organizing, self emergent collective utopia, without the failures or fallacies of communism or socialism.
1581. Patrap
98L 00 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

1582. Murko
Quoting watcher123:
1566:

This will give rise to a self organizing, self emergent collective utopia, without the failures or fallacies of communism or socialism.


And the faliures and fallacies of religion?
looks like fred is done. a new entity might be forming further north of it
1584. Patrap
Quoting presslord:
Pat...check out some independent evaluations of that...NASA is hardly an unbiased source...


Well.the option is moot,lag behind in Heavy Launch,or manned flight..and the Chinese will be on the Moon and off to Mars .

Id pick up a good Chinese Linguistics tutor if we go that route.
98L has not been deactivated as an invest, whoever said that is spewing out incorrect information
1586. Patrap
98L 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Good morning all!

IKE- thanks VERY much for posting that Neil Young link. Brought back loads of memories. (yes I'm AARP eligible too) LOL
Pat...that is a sad reality...
Good morning!
1590. IKE
Quoting swampliliy:
Good morning all!

IKE- thanks VERY much for posting that Neil Young link. Brought back loads of memories. (yes I'm AARP eligible too) LOL


You're welcome.
Fred is finally dead! I was getting tired of him.

GOOD MORNING ALL!!!
Dead Freakin' tropics. Good Sunday morning, all!!!!! :)
Quoting Hurricane009:
GOOD MORNING ALL!!!

Good morning, Hurricane009.
1582:

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.
For those that are talking about NASA and space flight try this link. A recent hearing on NASA funding and future.

NASASPACEFLIGHT

Link
1598. IKE
NEW BLOG!
1599. Patrap
Care of children during disasters is focus of federal report

By Jonathan Tilove
September 20, 2009, 4:30AM


'Disasters don't strike on government's timetable,' said Mark Shriver, chairman of the National Commission on Children and Disasters.

The National Commission on Children and Disasters last week approved its 90-page interim report to President Barack Obama and Congress. The report identifies several shortcomings in disaster preparedness, response and recovery and provides recommendations designed to place children uppermost in future disaster planning efforts.

The recommendations include creating a national evacuee tracking and family reunification system, providing a safe and secure mass shelter environment for children, improving the capacity for child-care services in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and ensuring that health-care professionals have adequate training in "pediatric disaster medicine."

"The most vulnerable Americans in the most vulnerable settings are made even more vulnerable by government inaction," said Mark Shriver, chairman of the commission. "Disasters don't strike on government's timetable, which means the time for government to act is now."
Oh boy.. religion and politics... this will turn into a fun Blog to watch today :)
1601. tkeith
Quoting Orcasystems:
Oh boy.. religion and politics... this will turn into a fun Blog to watch today :)
lol
1602. Grothar
Quoting watcher123:


1566:

Don't need flying cars, and don't really need a majority of the airline industry. It is a left-over relic of a past age. There is no good reason to have physical business trips when you have internet.

Not unless you have to punch somebody out!!!!
Can't do that electronically.
1603. Murko
Quoting watcher123:
1582:

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.


Don't be rediculous. Morals were around long before religion, and are based on empathy, not some outdated rule book which no one really follows. There are Amazon tribes who have never heard of any god who have similar morals to everyone else. As to your first point, um, the USA?

Sorry, I don't want to clutter the blog with idiot religious rantings. If you want to discuss this, feel free to PM me.
1604. Grothar
Quoting tornadodude:


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys


Dude! You're back. You were the topic of conversation this morning! Shows you how bad the tropics are!! We thought you messed-up again.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Tropics are quiet.Local weathermen here in central Fla. are not even mentioning Ex-Fred and it's impact on us.Exactly the reason I come here every morning and eve . I would like to thank all of you on here who help me to learn and understand weather ! You folks rock!
1606. Grothar
Quoting tornadodude:


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys


Remember, no "FOWL" language!!!
Quoting watcher123:
1582:

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.



Fairly bizarre point of view. IMO.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.
1608. Murko
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Fairly bizarre point of view. IMO.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.


The second commandment would not allow for any hurricane tracking: "You shall not make for yourself any carved image, or any likeness of anything that is in heaven above, or that is in the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth" LOL.
Quoting tacoman:
reedzone is probably sleeping he needs to get some sleep he took it hard when fred did not regenerate...i was worried about him...

theres no need to say that ur being rude
to reed which ur wren't suppose too so ur gonna be # 46 bye
1611. Grothar
We should not discuss religion on this blog. It is not the correct forum for such discussion. Passions run too deeply in religious matters. If any of you have read my bio, you know I teach Cultural Anthropology, which of course encompasses religious practices. If any of you would like to ask questions, off-blog, I shall be glad to share my papers with you. Most have been written in German, Norwegian or Swedish, but I shall glady translate them. We should NOT discuss anything here on this blog, please. I am sure most of you would agree.