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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Hunters find a tropical depression forming; Henriette lashes Pacific coast of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:08 PM GMT on August 31, 2007

The Hurricane Hunters have reported back from the tropical wave about 200 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, 94L, and found a closed circulation with top winds of 30 mph. This qualifies 94L as a tropical depression, and NHC will likely upgrade it to Tropical Depression Six in their 5pm update. This storm has the potential to become a hurricane in the Caribbean by Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show a considerable improvement in organization occurred today, with low level spiral bands wrapping around the center of circulation, and upper level outflow now visible on both the north and south sides.

Water vapor satellite loops show the presence of a large amount of dry air to the north of 94L, but the storm has generated enough thunderstorm activity to moisten the surrounding environment, which should speed development. Wind shear is a favorable 10 knots over 94L, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days over the storm's expected path through the Caribbean, according to the 18Z SHIPS model. As seen in the latest microwave satellite image from 12:49pm EDT (Figure 1), the heaviest thunderstorm activity is on the south side of the system. Trinidad and Tobago will get the heaviest rains from 94L, although the northern coast of South America plus the island of Grenada could also see some heavy rains.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of 94L taken at 12:49pm EDT 8/31/07. The heaviest rain (red colors) is just east of the island of Tobago. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Both the 12Z GFDL and the 18Z SHIPS intensity models forecast that 94L will intensify into a hurricane by 72 hours from now, as it tracks through the Central Caribbean. The model consensus has a track just north of the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao), then west-northwestward through the Caribbean. By Monday night, most of the models have 94L approaching the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The GFDL is further north, taking 94L into Belize on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane. The future strength of 94L depends critically upon how close it passes to the South American coast over the next two days. The Southeastern Caribbean just north of the South American coast is a climatologically unfavorable region for tropical cyclones, as they tend to pull dry continental air off of South America into their circulations. Many tropical cyclones passing through this region of the Caribbean die or become severely weakened. If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question. However, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the region, and I don't see any troughs of low pressure capable of swinging 94L to the north coming.

The next Hurricane Hunter mission will be 8am EDT Saturday. The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.

Links to follow today:
Martinique radar
Barbados weather
Trinidad Crown Point weather
Piarco, Trinidad weather
Grenada weather

96L
An area of low pressure ("96L") a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts got close to tropical depression status today. However, wind shear from strong upper level westerly winds has almost completely removed all heavy thunderstorm activity from the storm, and 96L has missed its chance to become a tropical depression.

Pacific coast of Mexico at risk from Henriette
Tropical Storm Henriette formed off the Pacific coast of Mexico this morning, and poses a threat to Mexican coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta, as well as the Baja Peninsula. Acapulco radar shows that spiral banding around the center has increased today, and visible satellite loops show a rather disorganized system, with the beginnings of some upper-level outflow to the south. Henriette has brought heavy rains and sustained winds of 25 mph to Acapulco today, but the weather there will improve tonight as the storm tracks west-northwest, parallel to the coast. Wind shear is a rather stiff 20 knots over Henriette today, which should keep any development slow. By tomorrow, wind shear should decrease to 10-15 knots, allowing more rapid strengthening. Residents of Manzanillo should be prepared for tropical storm force winds Saturday evening, and the airport there will probably close for a time late Saturday. Puerto Vallarta is further from Henrietta's projected path and more sheltered, and will probably not get tropical storm force winds. Those planning on being in Baja Monday and Tuesday should keep a close eye on Henriette, as hurricane conditions may arrive late Monday.

Links to watch for Henriette
Acapulco radar
Manzanillo, Mexico observations

I'll edit this blog when the 5pm advisory comes out. Next full update will be Saturday by noon EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr.Master's.
Thanks for the update.
thanks for the update Dr. Masters
So, we need to watch TD6, that low pressure east of cape race (wont effect anyone but fun to watch), and that low pressure at 35W
Jeff master... However, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the region, and I don't see any troughs of low pressure capable of swinging 94L to the north coming.

There you have it.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:07 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

AH AH AH AH AH and you all siad 94L was RIP a few nights a go heh heh heh


I almost had given up on the thing.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. M
The center fix is very important here.

06L on the SSD site.
Nice organization.
H23 and Dr. Masters-

There is a trough expected over Texas, but the strength of that trough may not be strong enough to erode the ridge.
it shows 30mph winds, although as more HH data comes in, they may make it stronger tonight
I would not be surprised to see that feature at 35W become an Invest within the next 24 to 48 hours as it has a surface low and has just been gaining convection. It is much farther north than 94L, so it will be interesting to see what that dry air will do to it. Looking very interesting out there.
dr i just has an idea to get comments really
high

modify the blog sp it says wht u want it to!

then u could get 999999999999999999 comments in a few active months of the tropical cyclone season
Thank you Dr. Masters. Now we can put an end to the Northcasters!..LOL Where are you JP??..LOL
Looks like a Dean track according to Doctor M. This blocking high might save the U.S from a devastating hit this year. Even with the heat wave over and the real strong high not present this general high pressure still seems strong enough. This must be a completely different pattern that has set up unlike any in a long time.
did td 06 l have to form?

i go to update my blog again!
TD6 was stronger this AM than now IMO. It is more disorganized now but hanging in there (I agree with nash)...
i dont see how Td6 is weaker than this morning when it wasnt a depression...



Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:12 PM GMT on August 31, 2007. (hide)
Jeff master... However, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the region, and I don't see any troughs of low pressure capable of swinging 94L to the north coming.

There you have it.

I'll see you and raise you! also from Dr Masters

If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question.
no longer 94L lol
Tropical Depression 6
1945 UTC
11.6N/57.9W
25 Knots
1008 Millibars
Movement: A little north of Due West

Does anyone know where I can find a steering map for Dean? I was looking at the latest one for TD06 and wanting to compare it to the steering currents and the high a couple of weeks ago but can not find it.

This site is crazy in that you can only see the posts for the past couple of days or July backwards - nothing for the first few weeks of August. And Google image search has no results either :(

Any help would be appreciated if you can point me in the right direction!
LOL. Noles. Thats called covering ourselves in the forecasting world!!
26. JLPR
so its not going due west it has little north component now?
94L is now 06L on the SSD page.
any guesses on how much a threat this may be to the U S
Seriously, who thinks TD6 is better organized now than this morning about 9:30 AM east coast time when it had beautiful outflow and banding? I think now he's struggling but hanging on. Needs that north movement or else graveyard is lurking.
go to archive then click July then change the URL last 2 numbers to the month number you want
Posted By: emagirl at 8:24 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

any guesses on how much a threat this may be to the U S


All of the models take it into central america.
Posted By: littlefish at 8:24 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Seriously, who thinks TD6 is better organized now than this morning about 9:30 AM east coast time when it had beautiful outflow and banding? I think now he's struggling but hanging on. Needs that north movement or else graveyard is lurking.


It hasnt changed in organization since this morning, although in strength it is stronger. Also, a west movement would still take it north of SA, and it isnt going due west
and it still does have good outflow and banding
Now come the real tests for TD6.
The E Caribbean and the N coast of SA

Cloud tops have warmed since this morning and the overall appearance is somewhat ragged.Tonight will be critical as to whether it can consolidate the circulation before entering the far Southern Caribbean which is well known as a graveyard for weak or developing systems
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 8:22 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

LOL. Noles. Thats called covering ourselves in the forecasting world!!


LMAO!
North movement might be an optical illusion. If it is there it is just barely N of W...WWWNWWW lol
That high still must be really strong. How long is deflecting pattern going to last? Can it last the whole season? It seems to be doing a good job deflecting all the storms from the U.S.
I think were all taking this "dead zone" in to too much consideration. yes, it is a problem for systems, but conditions are favorable there so no problem for TD6
maybe one will enter the gulf before everything is said and done this year!
40. LLJ
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 20:26Z
Date: August 31, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 30

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
20:14:30 10.92N 59.38W 965.3 mb 405 m 1011.2 mb From 276 (W) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:15:00 10.90N 59.38W 965.5 mb 403 m 1011.2 mb From 270 (W) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
20:15:30 10.87N 59.37W 965.5 mb 403 m 1011.1 mb From 267 (W) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:16:00 10.85N 59.37W 965.4 mb 404 m 1011.1 mb From 272 (W) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:16:30 10.82N 59.37W 965.5 mb 403 m 1011.1 mb From 277 (W) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
20:17:00 10.80N 59.35W 965.7 mb 401 m 1011.1 mb From 272 (W) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:17:30 10.77N 59.35W 965.3 mb 406 m 1011.3 mb From 283 (WNW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:18:00 10.73N 59.35W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.4 mb From 284 (WNW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:18:30 10.72N 59.35W 965.4 mb 406 m 1011.4 mb From 284 (WNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
20:19:00 10.68N 59.35W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.4 mb From 282 (WNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:19:30 10.67N 59.35W 965.4 mb 406 m 1011.4 mb From 286 (WNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
20:20:00 10.63N 59.35W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.4 mb From 293 (WNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) - -
20:20:30 10.62N 59.35W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.4 mb From 297 (WNW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:21:00 10.58N 59.37W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.3 mb From 298 (WNW) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) - -
20:21:30 10.55N 59.37W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.3 mb From 298 (WNW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:22:00 10.53N 59.37W 965.4 mb 406 m 1011.3 mb From 297 (WNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) - -
20:22:30 10.50N 59.37W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.3 mb From 286 (WNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:23:00 10.48N 59.37W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.3 mb From 280 (W) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
20:23:30 10.45N 59.37W 965.4 mb 406 m 1011.3 mb From 282 (WNW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
20:24:00 10.42N 59.37W 965.5 mb 405 m 1011.3 mb From 280 (W) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
At 20:14:30Z (first observation), the observation was 144 miles (231 km) to the E (83) from Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.
At 20:24:00Z (last observation), the observation was 144 miles (232 km) to the E (97) from Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.

Many TD's early in their development weaken during the day and strengthen over night.
42. KRL
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I agree that afternoon is the "weak" phase for convection. No argument there
Posted By: quipment at 8:30 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Many TD's early in their development weaken during the day and strengthen over night.


Good point, it is in the diurnal min time frame
It hasnt changed in organization since this morning, although in strength it is stronger.

Stronger, and aren't we around dmin now?

Will be interesting to see what this looks like in the morning...
extreme, I disagree. the banding is less directed centrally and weaker IMO. Outflow is still good with cirrus clouds radiating in all 4 quads. But the banding on the north side especially is weaker now. If it can take a slight jog north tonight it should become Felix by tomorrow though IMO.
Our friends in Costa Rica needs to watch this one closely.
TD6 Now




94L at Noon




94L This Morning




It looked better this morning
I agree the banding may not be as good, but systems undergo many changes due to the fact it is a weak and gradually organizing sytem. Lets see what the nhc says for a track
kman, I agree completely (from your post):

Now come the real tests for TD6.
The E Caribbean and the N coast of SA

Cloud tops have warmed since this morning and the overall appearance is somewhat ragged.Tonight will be critical as to whether it can consolidate the circulation before entering the far Southern Caribbean which is well known as a graveyard for weak or developing systems
Thank you Dr. Masters. Now we can put an end to the Northcasters!..LOL Where are you JP??..LOL

No offense, but why do you enjoy insulting people? It seems I was right when I called you arrogant that time. You are a meteorologist, you should show more respect for people.
456, nice graphic. I guess my point was why wasn't this a TD this AM if it is now when it looks a little less organized (your pics show that nicely) but it doesn't really matter as long as they get warnings up in time to those in any paths of these systems.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 8:34 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Thank you Dr. Masters. Now we can put an end to the Northcasters!..LOL Where are you JP??..LOL

No offense, but why do you enjoy insulting people? It seems I was right when I called you arrogant that time. You are a meteorologist, you should show more respect for people.



I think you'll learn he has no regard for anyones opinion, other than other meteorologist.
FINALLY a possible hurricane... only quirk is that its not coming north.

13 more hurricanes to go this season to make goal....
will BBL
.I think you'll learn he has no regard for anyones opinion, other than other meteorologist.

Probably true. Still, I'm holding true to what I said. Meteorologist opinions or not, he needs to show respect...

FINALLY a possible hurricane... only quirk is that its not coming north.

13 more hurricanes to go this season to make goal....


Numbers don't matter. Why are you wishing for death up north?
57. DDR
i am expecting TD6 to expand and engulf Trinidad with rain during the night time as Ivan did a couple of years ago
The NHC did everything right. They knew the HH's were flying it this afternoon, and quite frankly, why jump the gun before your best eyes and data come forth?

It's not like a major hurricane is bearing down on the islands here. It's a TD. A rainstorm, with a gust of wind.

Hell, we get that here in FL in the afternoon! NHC has not screwed anyone.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 8:37 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

.I think you'll learn he has no regard for anyones opinion, other than other meteorologist.

Probably true. Still, I'm holding true to what I said. Meteorologist opinions or not, he needs to show respect...


You don't have to have respect for people to get a degree in meteorology.
Death..who said that.. you did...

just cause hurricanes come up north doesnt necessarily mean death.
Look at cat5 Dean and how many he killed...barely in the double digits...and a cat5.

Whatever man, you stick to your hope and excitement and so will I..
I see we have TD6 and more than likely that'd turn into Felix. And does 96L at least have a decent chance for TD7...then after Gabelille? or is 96L running outa time??
I just notice u guys in the US have a holiday on Monday...Happy Labour (Labor) Day in Advance from SK.
Posted By: whirlwind at 8:39 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Death..who said that.. you did...

just cause hurricanes come up north doesnt necessarily mean death.
Look at cat5 Dean and how many he killed...barely in the double digits...and a cat5.

Whatever man, you stick to your hope and excitement and so will I..


Barely double digits? He killed 40+ people
nash, I agree and it is barely a TD ATM. Will have to see if SA allows it become better organized.
and it appears 96L wont develop, so now we watch 06L and that low pressure east of newfoundland as well as that low pressure at 35W
You don't have to have respect for people to get a degree in meteorology.

That's not what I was saying. I was saying that even if he doesn't agree with meteorological opinions from actual meteorologists, that doesn't mean he should insult people like jp. I hate when people get all smartified like that. I know it's not ever going to quit, but it's still quite annoying.

Death..who said that.. you did...

just cause hurricanes come up north doesnt necessarily mean death.
Look at cat5 Dean and how many he killed...barely in the double digits...and a cat5.

Whatever man, you stick to your hope and excitement and so will I..


Barely in the double digits, huh? 37 deaths is a lot for anything. I take it you could care less what happens to people. Let yourself be put in that situation and see how you react. Seriously, have respect for people. I'm not sticking to any "excitement". I just watch the tropics, and say what I think will happen.
96L....on life support

70. KRL
For the person that requested the steering layers link.

Western North Atlantic Layers - Mean Wind Analysis

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

steering
71. IKE
Posted By: whirlwind at 3:39 PM CDT on August 31, 2007.
Death..who said that.. you did...

just cause hurricanes come up north doesnt necessarily mean death.
Look at cat5 Dean and how many he killed...barely in the double digits...and a cat5.

Whatever man, you stick to your hope and excitement and so will I..


If one of those "barely in the double digits" was a member of your family, would you be expressing their death in such a manner?
Louisianaboy- I have news for you.... If you are talking about Weatherguy03, he is degreed in Meteorology, so I would watch your step.
LOL I agree nash it aint a big deal as long as warnings go up. And it is mostly rain warnings with this one for now. I must admit though it seemed a bit annoying hearing TWC repeatedly call this an open wave yesterday. As for TD, Recon has shown their importance once again vs just a Quckscat image...
does anyone think that nhc track will be further north than the models .

and could 96l effect the high and put a hole in it for awhile . thanks
Posted By: KoritheMan at 8:43 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

You don't have to have respect for people to get a degree in meteorology.

That's not what I was saying. I was saying that even if he doesn't agree with meteorological opinions from actual meteorologists, that doesn't mean he should insult people like jp. I hate when people get all smartified like that. I know it's not ever going to quit, but it's still quite annoying.


LOL. thats bob for you.
I am the only one who saw this in Dr. Master's blog? "a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."????
Weatherwonderer: What's with the comment about 94L barely being a TD? It may be eating some slight dry air from SA to its south, but it's not going to just dissipate, at least I don't think so, from that dry air. Not everything is going to rapidly intensify.
is there a low at approx 70W and 32N
No, everyone saw what Dr. Masters said because it is in play. A track further north is not out of the question.

You have to cover and look at both sides.
I am the only one who saw this in Dr. Master's blog? "a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."????

I saw that as well, but he also said he sees no troughs breaking down the ridge. Time will tell.
max winds are 35mph with 06L as the nhc has jsut stated
Louisianaboy- I have news for you.... If you are talking about Weatherguy03, he is degreed in Meteorology, so I would watch your step.

It doesn't matter there are many of us on this sight including myself who are degreed maybe not in the same field but maybe in related fields. It does not give me the right to be arrogant and elitist. I would not do that to anybody.
NHC has TD6 up
and now on As The Cyclone Turns! let the arguments ensue!!! I hear whining.... Can somebody call a WAAAAMBULANCE?

LOL!
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT
NHC has now declared TD6.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...COASTAL VENEZUELA INCLUDING OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.8 N...58.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

i dont know who they talking about they just said something about a met banking on where something is going to go this far out and im just saying if he is a met he should know better than that and that it is too far out to know excatly what this thing will do
Ladies and Gentlemen Start Your F5 engines...

Link
92. LLJ
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30
KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE
WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE
FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 11.8N 58.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W 75 KT
000
WTNT41 KNHC 312049
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30
KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE
WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE
FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 11.8N 58.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Korth, that statement about out TD being barely one was to back up Nash's previous post. Yes, I believe that the depression is going to stay and possibly build. I have believed that it would be depression for the last couple of days. The remark was on the NHC timing not the storm.
Louisianaboy- Weatherguy03 is not going to be as pompous as that to come here and say TD6 is going to do X. No one knows where it is going.

We can make our best guesses, but as we all know, the models can and do change from run to run. Also, the atmosphere is in constand fluid flux, so what might look like a sure bet today could be turned on its ass tomorrow.
...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


??????????
For those of you who said this looks ragged, less organized than it was this morning, this is what the NHC says:

The satellite presentation is becoming impressive
with plenty of curved bands and an expanding outflow pattern.
Those ridges of high pressure and the position of them are really protecting us this year.....
Korth, that statement about out TD being barely one was to back up Nash's previous post. Yes, I believe that the depression is going to stay and possibly build. I have believed that it would be depression for the last couple of days. The remark was on the NHC timing not the storm.

Well, it didn't really matter that they didn't time it, did it? I mean, like nash said, it's just a rainstorm with a few wind gusts... The residents in that area are used to depressions and storms sneaking up on them like this. That's probably why NHC waited until recon got in there.
Nash28NHC has now declared TD6.

About a half an hour ago the main page (NHC) said there was nothing, but when I went to the satellite images page, it had Floater 1 listed as 06L.

I guess it just takes a while to get everything done, checked and approved for release. Must have caught them in the middle of a "work in progress."
Posted By: gatagus07 at 8:52 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Those ridges of high pressure and the position of them are really protecting us this year.....


They won't be once late September and october roll around.
104. LLJ
Yeah, sounds like Avila was a little excited!
Those ridges of high pressure and the position of them are really protecting us this year.....

Don't go thinking the U.S. is out of the woods yet. Not trying to "wishcast" as some people on here would lead you to believe, but it just formed. We don't really know where it'll go yet. I do agree that a U.S. hit is less likely at this point unless some troughs erode the ridge, but I don't think you should count the U.S. out yet.
Korth, exactly. lol
is it really that active of a season that the entry line states

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.



Well they are the experts so i guess it is actually improving as oppose too what i thought. Cant argue with the experts, they know alot more than me.
Florida Is spared this Year we are Safe Woot!!!!!
waiting for the 5:30 TWO to see what they have to say about the other 2 systems or more if they add the other one in
112. IKE
This from the NHC in their discussion...

HOWEVER MOST OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...


Actually...most of them never picked up on TD6.
i dont think this will be a mx storm
Posted By: sammywammybamy at 8:56 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Florida Is spared this Year we are Safe Woot!!!!!

Cant say that yet. Now, if it was november, you could say that lol
Sammywammy- Year aint over yet. Watch what you say.
Florida needs to watch this Cv wave closely.
NEW blog.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:57 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

i dont think this will be a mx storm


maybe not, looks like a belize storm
and what exactly do you think it will be taz???
Posted By: extreme236 at 8:57 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Posted By: sammywammybamy at 8:56 PM GMT on August 31, 2007.

Florida Is spared this Year we are Safe Woot!!!!!

Cant say that yet. Now, if it was november, you could say that lol


not even in November you can say that especially if a storm has formed as it could move farther Norhtward and then move NE if that trough can get south.
121. IKE
The NHC has TD6 making landfall within 100 miles of where Dean did.

I guess accuweathers prediction of where the storms had the highest probability of making landfall this season is wrong.
OMG...after Dean ppl are still doubting the NHC forecast this early. lol will it eva end.
Posted By: whirlwind at 4:39 PM EDT on August 31, 2007.
Death..who said that.. you did...

just cause hurricanes come up north doesnt necessarily mean death.
Look at cat5 Dean and how many he killed...barely in the double digits...and a cat5.

Whatever man, you stick to your hope and excitement and so will I..



hope and excitement?

you might want to check your figures on deaths.
Looks like the center is further north again so it aint going due west. They had it at 11.3, 57.1 then 11.6 57.9, now current location. So it very well could survive the SA graveyard. Wait and see.
UL outflow getting going on SW side TD6.
Still easing up under the SA anticyclone.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.

I disagree, I think it looks a buit more ragged. It is OK to disagree with NHC isn't it LOL? Not that I know anything...
this is only the first track from the nhc with the center drifting more north so will the track stay tuned
It might be heading a little North of West but the differences in the 11.3 and 11.6 could be either the COC has shifted to the new location or they actually have a HH fix on it which they had to estimate before. Still the official forecast it is for a W to WNW direction.
maybe the hwrf is right and it takes it to cuba hmmmmm
At this point, nobody is completely out of the woods. It is more of a matter of probabilities.
the hwrf and the mm5 has it close to cuba now i see 3 centers which will be the real one ?
stormy, if you were playing poker, which would you choose?
i think it was lunch time for the Model Mets and they said: "what the hell, draw in the XTRP, then use the others to make it look pretty. Let's go."
Sorry to be so dense and late to the discussion - why are we talking about Cuba? What's headed that way - I didn't see anything on the HWRF or MM5FSU models indicating anything...