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Hurricane Hunters Find 50 mph Winds in 90L; Cat 3 Noul Aims at Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:31 PM GMT on May 07, 2015

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured winds in excess of tropical storm force on Thursday morning inside Invest 90L, the area of disturbed weather off the Southeast U.S. coast. However, the aircraft found no well-defined center, and 90L lacked enough heavy thunderstorm activity for NHC to name the system Subtropical Storm Ana as of 11 am EDT Thursday. The aircraft found a large area of 40 - 50 mph surface winds about 100 - 200 miles off the central and northeast coast of South Carolina. Winds of this strength were also measured by a 7:23 am EDT Thursday pass of the Rapidscat instrument on the International Space Station. (Note that in their In their 2 pm EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC judged that rain contamination of the wind data meant these winds were more likely 40 - 45 mph.) As of noon EDT Thursday, rainfall amounts of about one inch were estimated by radar to have fallen along the South Carolina coast to the northeast of Charleston from 90L, but long-range radar out of Charleston showed little change in the intensity of organization of the rain bands of 90L. Satellite loops show that 90L has a large, ill-defined circulation, with a thick band of heavy thunderstorms extending to the northwest of the center over South Carolina, and almost no heavy thunderstorms near the center of circulation. This is a typical appearance for a subtropical cyclone, which characteristically have a large, cloud-free center of circulation, with heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. As explained in wunderground's subtropical storm tutorial, a subtropical cyclone has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain, and tropical storms have the potential to rapidly intensify into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not.

Wind shear over 90L had fallen to a moderate 20 knots late Thursday morning, and water vapor satellite loops showed a large area of dry air to the west over the Southeast United States. This dry air is retarding development, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west driving the dry air into the core of 90L. Ocean temperatures were near 25 - 26°C (77 - 79°F), which is just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 90L taken at approximately 11:30 am EDT May 7, 2015. Image credit: NASA Worldview.


Figure 2. Radar image of 90L taken at 12:02 pm EDT Thursday May 7, 2015, from the long-range radar out of Charleston.


Figure 3. The 7:23 am EDT (11:23 UTC) Thursday pass of the Rapidscat instrument on the International Space Station showed winds of up to 55 mph (50 knots, purple colors) off the coast of South Carolina from 90L. These winds may be weaker, perhaps 45 - 50 mph, due to contamination of the signal by heavy rains.

Forecast for 90L
The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over 90L would fall to the light range, 5 -10 knots, on Friday, which should allow 90L to organize into a subtropical storm by Friday at the latest. Steering currents are weak over the waters off the Southeast U.S. coast, so expect a slow and erratic motion for 90L. The 00Z Thursday morning runs of our two top models for predicting tropical cyclones tracks, the European and GFS models, both showed the system making landfall on Sunday, in North Carolina or northeastern South Carolina. In their 2 pm EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 80%, respectively. 90L will be capable of bringing winds of 55 - 65 mph to the coast on Saturday and Sunday, along with heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches. Steve Gregory provides additional perspective on 90L in his latest blog post.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Noul taken near 05 UTC May 7, 2015. At the time, Noul was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Dangerous Typhoon Noul headed for the northern Philippines
Typhoon Noul has undergone a period of rapid intensification, and had reached major typhoon status with 115 mph winds as of 8 am EDT Thursday. WIth plenty of deep, water water before it and wind shear a moderate 10 - 15 knots, continued intensification into a Category 4 storm appears likely as the storm heads towards the northern Philippines. Satellite loops show that Noul is a medium-sized storm with a tiny pinhole eye with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. The outer bands of Noul will begin affection the Philippines on Friday, with landfall of the center expected to occur in northern Luzon Island near 6 pm EDT Saturday (22 UTC). Noul will encounter a trough of low pressure as it approaches the Philippines, which is expected to induce a more northwesterly track. This may cause the storm's eye to miss the Philippines, as predicted by the 00Z Thursday run of the European model. The northeast part of Luzon is mountainous, which could increase the risk for very heavy rains as Noul moves onshore or nearby, although a grazing landfall would put most of Luzon on the weaker western side of the circulation. Noul will be referred to as Dodong in the Philippines’ naming system.

Another tropical system, Tropical Depression Seven, is organizing to the east over Micronesia. TD 7 is expected to pass near Micronesia's Pohnpei Island this weekend as a Category 1 typhoon, and the storm will likely pass within 300 miles of Guam next week. Satellite loops show that TD 7 is not yet well-organized, but it does have a large area of heavy thunderstorms. TD 7 may pose a long-range threat to the Philippines or Japan, but it is too early to know.

An exceptionally busy early portion of typhoon season
Noul's formation date of May 3 marks the second earliest appearance on record for the Northwest Pacific's sixth named storm of the year, according to statistics of the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon. The average is 1.8 storms before May 8. The record is held by 1971, when the sixth named storm of the year (Babe) formed on May 3, six hours earlier than Noul's formation time. If TD 7 develops into a named storm before May 19, which appears highly likely, it will break the record set on May 19, 1971 for the earliest formation of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year. The early start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average, due to a strengthening El Niño event. Water temperatures are also unusually warm for this time of year across parts of the Northeast Pacific. This region has yet to see its first named storm of 2015, but the continued evolution of El Niño and the already-warm SSTs indicate that a busy hurricane season is quite possible in this area as well.

Noul will be the second tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines so far in 2015. The first was Tropical Storm Maysak, which hit the Philippines exceptionally early in the season--during Easter weekend, April 4 - 5. Fortunately, Maysak was weakening rapidly as it made landfall, and no deaths or significant damage were reported (though four people were injured after huge waves generated by Maysak hit them while they were taking selfies along the shoreline of Dipaculao town in Aurora province on April 4.)

All-time May heat record for Europe falls--in the first week of May!
Extreme heat roasted Italy this week, where the city of Catenanuova hit 41.9°C (107.4°F) on Wednesday, May 6. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest May temperature ever recorded in Europe. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F), set on May 17, 2006 in Andujar, Spain. The new European May heat record comes just one day after the earliest 40°C temperature ever recorded in Europe--a 40.4°C (104.7°F) reading at San Priamo in southeastern Sardinia, according to Herrera's stats.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks!
World headed for an El Nino and it could be a big one, scientists say

...Scientists, though, are surprised that the build-up of unusual warmth in the eastern Pacific compared with the west is happening so early in the year. "It's quite rare – this is an interesting one," Dr Santoso said.

Not a bad one for early May. Thx Dr. Masters.
Tropics are pretty busy, even when this is one of the slowest months globally....Thanks Doc.

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Surface chart was updated to reflect the pressure of 90L : which might now be even lower.



Thanks Dr. Masters....
From Xandra's link. This is a really good shot of what is actually happening . Notice how most of the heat is centrally located, and has been for a long time, hence all the Modoki Nino talk.

Quoting 3. Xandra:

World headed for an El Nino and it could be a big one, scientists say

...Scientists, though, are surprised that the build-up of unusual warmth in the eastern Pacific compared with the west is happening so early in the year. "It's quite rare %u2013 this is an interesting one," Dr Santoso said.


Mother Nature needs to slow her role.



SPC just issued an enhanced risk across Texas and Oklahoma for today.
Thanks dok!
Quoting 3. Xandra:

World headed for an El Nino and it could be a big one, scientists say

...Scientists, though, are surprised that the build-up of unusual warmth in the eastern Pacific compared with the west is happening so early in the year. "It's quite rare – this is an interesting one," Dr Santoso said.


big melt big storms big rains big drought is that big enough or should I add a few more things
Quoting 13. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Mother Nature needs to slow her role.




Or get out of her way...This could be bad for a lot of folks, or turn out to be beneficial..its wait and see..
Still cold core atm. Lets see if it can start the transition to warm core later today and tonight.
Quoting 9. MahFL:

Surface chart was updated to reflect the pressure of 90L : which might now be even lower.






umm no
recon found 1003mb
so it refects it poorly
Lots of things to talk about today, 2 tropical cyclones, severe weather across the midwest, and the state of the El Nino. Now no one should be bored, unless you are the fair weather fan. :P
Hello all,

Not much rain, just cloudy and also breezy here in Wilmington today..

Quoting 14. CybrTeddy:

SPC just issued an enhanced risk across Texas and Oklahoma for today.
yeah already firing up

Thanks Jeff. Here we go...
Quoting 20. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Lots of things to talk about today, 2 tropical cyclones, severe weather across the midwest, and the state of the El Nino. Now no one should be bored, unless you are the fair weather fan. :P


lol
Quoting 21. ncstorm:

Hello all,

Not much rain, just cloudy and also breezy here in Wilmington today..


No sock puppet! :P
NASA trumps CFSv2





Link
Quoting 25. GTstormChaserCaleb:

No sock puppet! :P


My profile pic is my way of saying I'm here to talk about the weather only..

as Marshawn Lynch said in his superbowl interviews to the media and own my added touch:

"It's there so I won't get banned"

Looks like It's going to be a wild day for tornados..again..

Link
Link to my latest blog on 90L or future #Ana.
Quoting 12. hydrus:

From Xandra's link. This is a really good shot of what is actually happening . Notice hoe most of the heat is centrally located, and has been for a long time, hence all the Modoki Nino talk.




The caption with the image says it's from the 2009-10 event. Check here for the most recent sea level data, which is more impressive.
I feel bad for the people in Oklahoma, Kansas, texas and the upper plains as well. This severe weather outbreak this upcoming weekend as well as today is going to be a doozy. There is no rest for the weary. But it is tornado alley so everyone has to know and understand the risks associated with residing in this part of the country. It is both exciting, and extremely dangerous at the same time
Quoting 26. nrtiwlnvragn:

NASA trumps CFSv2





Link

yes but I don't buy it one bit if anything I say more like CMC1 likely
I think my prediction of 2.5 - 3 degree super Nino is not looking that outrageous after all. NASA is going bananas with its current El Nino prediction as well as the CFS
Quoting 18. StormJunkie:

Still cold core atm. Lets see if it can start the transition to warm core later today and tonight.
Not sure about that, vorticity seems stronger in the lower levels as you go from bottom to top.





Appears we are at shallow warm core now.

Tons to catch up on here! Thanks for the blog Jeff Masters. Interesting to see 90L being quite potent in wind speed already. Perhaps it'll be able to make it to a 60mph sub-tropical/tropical storm?

Was lurking when the events of last night's tornado outbreak occurred and it was so flabbergasting! Wasn't expecting what happened. Looks like more to come over the next few days too. Hope everyone there stays safe!

After a windy/chilly couple of days, today was really sunny and warm with temperatures up to 17C. It's meant to keep warming up each day this week until Monday where the current forecast is 26C (79F]! Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere managed to hit the 80F mark for the first time this year on Monday.

As a side note: I voted in my first major election today. Was quite exciting although very quick (took me less than 5 minutes to get there, vote and get back! lol].
Dr. Greg Forbes
2 mins ·

Long day yesterday - on air at The Weather Channel from 3 PM to midnight almost constantly at times. Preliminary count of over 50 tornado reports in NE, KS, OK, and TX. I'm scheduled to be on this evening, but I'll probably be on occasionally before then. TWC will be live through at least 10 PM EDT, with cut-ins after that.

Dr. Greg Forbes
4 mins ·

TODAY
Scattered severe thunderstorms in east and south MN, west WI, IA,
northwest MO, southeast NE, KS, OK, extreme southeast CO,
extreme northeast NM, northwest and central TX. TORCON - 4
northwest TX, 3 central TX, 3 central IA and northwest MO; 2 to
3 the rest of the area.
Thanks for the update on 90L Dr. M, looks like a crappy weekend for obx. But hey, I didn't have plans anyways
Good afternoon.

For those interested,

Thursday Video Discussion on Invest 90L
Quoting 30. WeatherConvoy:

I feel bad for the people in Oklahoma, Kansas, texas and the upper plains as well. This severe weather outbreak this upcoming weekend as well as today is going to be a doozy. There is no rest for the weary. But it is tornado alley so everyone has to know and understand the risks associated with residing in this part of the country. It is both exciting, and extremely dangerous at the same time


A lot of these forecasts turn out to be 'busts'. We've had a few busts already, this year.
Thanks Dr. Masters!

"Figure 3. The 7:23 am EDT (11:23 UTC) Thursday pass of the Rapidscat instrument on the International Space Station showed winds of up to 55 mph (50 knots, purple colors) off the coast of South Carolina from 90L. These winds may be weaker, perhaps 45 - 50 mph, due to contamination of the signal by heavy rains."

I wasn't aware ISS-RapidSCAT data was available yet! Great news for this hurricane season. The coverage already looks better than ASCAT.
On the severe weather topic.
Watch Possible Soon for parts of Texas.
Thank You Dr. for the great overview on sub-tropical vs. tropical......................with no closed LLC as of yet, it cannot be a named storm regardless of the warm v. cold cored configuration even though the wind-speed requirement has been met.
Quoting 37. Levi32:

Good afternoon.

For those interested,

Thursday Video Discussion on Invest 90L
Thanks Levi. Good info as always. Coastline will have some beach erosion issues with the slow movement.
Quoting 29. TimSoCal:



The caption with the image says it's from the 2009-10 event. Check here for the most recent seal level data, which is more impressive.

well this year still don't look like what we had back in 2002 and 1997



its a bit warmer than last year but I will not buy this strong El Nino or apocalyptic El Nino event
as I stated maybe Moderate El Nino at most and I will stick to that until I see otherwise
Quoting 32. WeatherConvoy:

I think my prediction of 2.5 - 3 degree super Nino is not looking that outrageous after all. NASA is going bananas with its current El Nino prediction as well as the CFS



Well good luck to you.....looking at the error rate as noted by the irc.....since 2011...Both spring barrier and non barrier....it's been consistently over forecasting by more than fifty percent
Quoting 29. TimSoCal:

The caption with the image says it's from the 2009-10 event. Check here for the most recent sea level data, which is more impressive.

LATEST IMAGE

CFSv2 carrying a lot of wait as the NMME models just updated 15 minutes ago and they are close to 3C as well. All of these dynamical models showing a 3C El-Nino is unheard of and one frankly I never saw back in 1997 when I was in High School.

Afternoon, all. So it begins...
Nice outerbanding regardless but the dry air intrusion is quite evident:


Quoting 12. hydrus:

From Xandra's link. This is a really good shot of what is actually happening . Notice how most of the heat is centrally located, and has been for a long time, hence all the Modoki Nino talk.




Modoki talk is bogus as this is clearly a Traditional East Bases El-Nino and one for the record books it appears.

That image is old!



Just a weird, potentially poorly educated question from a lurker:

It seems 90L is destined for designation, all of the signs are pointing to an increased organization and it seems to be happening at a quicker pace than most had thought... especially wind-wise.
So I'm just wondering if perhaps 90L is having this mutually beneficial relationship with the ridiculous instability over the US Plains? It seems as though that much of the continental dry air that should be affecting 90L is being gobbled up by the low over the south-central US to feed its own instability while 90L's increased cyclonic flow is helping more Gulf moisture get drawn into the unstable weather too.

Dunno, but I've gotta feeling we'll see Ana before day's end. Even if the circulation's still elongated, 90L's proximity to land and overall trend towards organization may prompt an early name. Especially if the winds still increase and creep nearer towards the centre.
Ouch! Posted this so that you guys can see the dramatic increase from last month.

April update


May update
Quoting 46. Xandra:


LATEST IMAGE


I was wondering a bit. I thought that there should be more warm water showing up near the coast. Regardless, there is a still a large amount of heat to the west of South America. If all of it moves east, a strong Nino certainly would occur..JMO
I bet the spc will issue a day 2 moderate next outlook. Saturday's going to be insane! Day 3 moderate.
Quoting 20. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Lots of things to talk about today, 2 tropical cyclones, severe weather across the midwest, and the state of the El Nino. Now no one should be bored, unless you are the fair weather fan. :P


GT, this means one hell of a October thru March time frame for FL. We might need our own team of StormChasers.
After this Invest goes away, it looks like very slim pickins for the foreseeable future in the Atlantic and Caribbean Basin................... :)

Quoting 44. wunderkidcayman:


well this year still don't look like what we had back in 2002 and 1997



its a bit warmer than last year but I will not buy this strong El Nino or apocalyptic El Nino event
as I stated maybe Moderate El Nino at most and I will stick to that until I see otherwise


Of course it's not like 1997. A ridiculous number of things had to go right to get an event that strong. But I don't think an event that peaks between 1.5 and 2.0C is out of the question this year.
Quoting 55. hydrus:

I was wondering a bit. I thought that there should be more warm water showing up near the coast. Regardless, there is a still a large amount of heat to the west of South America. If all of it moves east, a strong Nino certainly would occur..JMO


Models are now leaning for a 2.3C event come July. If that were to occur that would be the Strongest El-Nino ever for July eclipsing the 1997 July mark by a wide margin.
est air surface temps 1700 05/14/15

Versus the current W-Pac and pending E-Pac season:




Quoting 59. TimSoCal:



Of course it's not like 1997. A ridiculous number of things had to go right to get an event that strong. But I don't think an event that peaks between 1.5 and 2.0C is out of the question this year.


We will likely have that in several weeks across Nino 3.4 as on the NMME site it is showing dramatic sea level rise come June across the equatorial Pacific.
If you think NASA and the CFSv2 are nuts then you should see the Euro as it is around 3.4C for a peak. Numbers unheard even if it does have a warm bias take 1C off and you still average a 2.4C event. Crazy!
Quoting 50. StormTrackerScott:



Modoki talk is bogus as this is clearly a Traditional East Bases El-Nino and one for the record books it appears.

That image is old!




I going to practice being more concise with my words here. I was referring to the talk in the past 6 to 8 months that the situation out there did have a similar characteristics of a Modoki Nino. I never meant to imply that the current situation was Modoki like. I said a couple days ago that conditions would be favorable for Ana to develop if the system stayed over the gulf stream, even tho at the time they werent. I meant to say that conditions would " become " favorable. So I must learn to be more specific.
Quoting 19. wunderkidcayman:



umm no
recon found 1003mb
so it refects it poorly


Actually they did update it. These charts are updated every three hours normally, so they won't reflect the actual pressure of a deepening low.
ALERT!!!!!!!!

Moderate risk issued for tomorrow.


Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



Models are now leaning for a 2.3C event come July. If that were to occur that would be the Strongest El-Nino ever for July eclipsing the 1997 July mark by a wide margin.
To be honest, i didnt think it possible, but i didnt think Hurricane Camille's 24 and a half foot storm surge could be surpassed either.
Do you think that we have Ana?
A Yes
B No
C Maybe
Quoting 51. LostTomorrows:

Just a weird, potentially poorly educated question from a lurker:

It seems 90L is destined for designation, all of the signs are pointing to an increased organization and it seems to be happening at a quicker pace than most had thought... especially wind-wise.
So I'm just wondering if perhaps 90L is having this mutually beneficial relationship with the ridiculous instability over the US Plains? It seems as though that much of the continental dry air that should be affecting 90L is being gobbled up by the low over the south-central US to feed its own instability while 90L's increased cyclonic flow is helping more Gulf moisture get drawn into the unstable weather too.

Dunno, but I've gotta feeling we'll see Ana before day's end. Even if the circulation's still elongated, 90L's proximity to land and overall trend towards organization may prompt an early name. Especially if the winds still increase and creep nearer towards the centre.

No, it's been trapped by High pressure to the north in the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. This has also created an westerly fetch of warm moist air.
The closer it gets to the coast the more it will weaken as the waters along the shelf are much cooler. It's early in the season so you can figure this disturbance will fizzle out pretty soon as there will not be a very deep layer of warm water in which to draw energy.
Quoting 65. hydrus:

I going to practice being more concise with my words here. I was referring to the talk in the past 6 to 8 months that the situation out there did have a similar characteristics of a Modoki Nino. I never meant to imply that the current situation was Modoki like. I said a couple days ago that conditions would be favorable for Ana to develop if the system stayed over the gulf stream, even tho at the time they werent. I meant to say that conditions would " become " favorable. So I must learn to be more specific.


I wasn't meaning you I was referring to who ever had that posted online. You do a great job on here.
Quoting 69. HurricaneAndre:

Do you think that we have Ana?
A Yes
B No
C Maybe



A. Yes.
90L/STS/XX/CX
I think 90/100 or 100/100 next TWO
Quoting 73. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

90L/STS/XX/CX

Ana is here?
Quoting 67. 62901IL:

ALERT!!!!!!!!

Moderate risk issued for tomorrow.







Booyah! Called it!
Quoting 77. TimTheWxMan:





Booyah! Called it!


YEAH BUDDY!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 76. HurricaneAndre:

Ana is here?


According to NHC, not yet.
Time
<
Coordinates Aircraft Static Air Pressure Aircraft Geo. Height Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR Surface Rain Rate Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor Peak Wind at Flight Lvl. to Est. Sfc. Red. Factor
Time
<
Coordinates Aircraft Static Air Pressure Aircraft Geo. Height Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR Surface Rain Rate Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor Peak Wind at Flight Lvl. to Est. Sfc. Red. Factor
17:17:30Z 31.967N 75.933W 977.8 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 284 meters
(~ 932 feet) 1010.7 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 148° at 34 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 39.1 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 17.3°C
(~ 63.1°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 24.3 knots (~ 27.9 mph)
71.4%
17:18:00Z 32.000N 75.933W 977.8 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) 1010.9 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 151° at 36 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 41.4 mph) 18.6°C
(~ 65.5°F) 17.3°C
(~ 63.1°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 26.0 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
72.2%
17:18:30Z 32.033N 75.933W 978.1 mb
(~ 28.89 inHg) 285 meters
(~ 935 feet) 1011.0 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 147° at 35 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 40.3 mph) 18.7°C
(~ 65.7°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 25.3 knots (~ 29.1 mph)
72.2%
17:19:00Z 32.067N 75.933W 977.9 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 288 meters
(~ 945 feet) 1011.2 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 140° at 34 knots
(From the SE at ~ 39.1 mph) 18.3°C
(~ 64.9°F) 17.4°C
(~ 63.3°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 23.3 knots (~ 26.8 mph)
68.6%
17:19:30Z 32.100N 75.933W 978.3 mb
(~ 28.89 inHg) 283 meters
(~ 928 feet) 1011.1 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 136° at 33 knots
(From the SE at ~ 38.0 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 23.3 knots (~ 26.8 mph)
70.6%
17:20:00Z 32.117N 75.933W 977.9 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 288 meters
(~ 945 feet) 1011.3 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 136° at 33 knots
(From the SE at ~ 38.0 mph) 17.9°C
(~ 64.2°F) 17.4°C
(~ 63.3°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 25.2 knots (~ 29.0 mph)
76.5%
17:20:30Z 32.150N 75.933W 978.3 mb
(~ 28.89 inHg) 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) 1011.6 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 136° at 34 knots
(From the SE at ~ 39.1 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 25.3 knots (~ 29.1 mph)
74.3%
17:21:00Z 32.183N 75.933W 977.8 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 293 meters
(~ 961 feet) 1011.8 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 134° at 35 knots
(From the SE at ~ 40.3 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 17.2°C
(~ 63.0°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 27.0 knots (~ 31.1 mph)
77.1%
17:21:30Z 32.217N 75.933W 978.1 mb
(~ 28.89 inHg) 291 meters
(~ 955 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 130° at 34 knots
(From the SE at ~ 39.1 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 26.2 knots (~ 30.2 mph)
77.1%
17:22:00Z 32.250N 75.933W 978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 294 meters
(~ 965 feet) 1012.0 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 128° at 33 knots
(From the SE at ~ 38.0 mph) 17.7°C
(~ 63.9°F) 16.9°C
(~ 62.4°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 25.2 knots (~ 29.0 mph)
76.5%
17:22:30Z 32.283N 75.933W 978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 294 meters
(~ 965 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 124° at 33 knots
(From the ESE/SE at ~ 38.0 mph) 17.7°C
(~ 63.9°F) 16.8°C
(~ 62.2°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 26.2 knots (~ 30.2 mph)
79.4%
17:23:00Z 32.283N 75.933W 978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 294 meters
(~ 965 feet) 1012.2 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 124° at 32 knots
(From the ESE/SE at ~ 36.8 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 16.6°C
(~ 61.9°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 25.4 knots (~ 29.2 mph)
79.4%
17:23:30Z 32.333N 75.917W 978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 295 meters
(~ 968 feet) 1012.2 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 124° at 33 knots
(From the ESE/SE at ~ 38.0 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 16.5°C
(~ 61.7°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 24.5 knots (~ 28.2 mph)
74.3%
17:24:00Z 32.367N 75.933W 978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 293 meters
(~ 961 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 119° at 34 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 39.1 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 16.4°C
(~ 61.5°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 24 knots*
(~ 27.6 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 23.3 knots* (~ 26.8 mph*)
68.6%*
17:24:30Z 32.383N 75.967W 978.2 mb
(~ 28.89 inHg) 291 meters
(~ 955 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 114° at 29 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 33.4 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 16.5°C
(~ 61.7°F) 33 knots
(~ 38.0 mph) - - - -
17:25:00Z 32.350N 75.983W 978.6 mb
(~ 28.90 inHg) 289 meters
(~ 948 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 117° at 28 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 32.2 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 25.2 knots (~ 29.0 mph)
90.0%
17:25:30Z 32.333N 76.017W 977.6 mb
(~ 28.87 inHg) 296 meters
(~ 971 feet) 1012.0 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 112° at 27 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 31.1 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 26.0 knots (~ 30.0 mph)
96.4%
17:26:00Z 32.317N 76.033W 978.5 mb
(~ 28.90 inHg) 288 meters
(~ 945 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 113° at 27 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 31.1 mph) 17.9°C
(~ 64.2°F) 16.8°C
(~ 62.2°F) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 26.0 knots (~ 30.0 mph)
96.4%
17:26:30Z 32.300N 76.067W 978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 293 meters
(~ 961 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 114° at 27 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 31.1 mph) 17.9°C
(~ 64.2°F) 16.9°C
(~ 62.4°F) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.0 knots (~ 30.0 mph)
96.4%
17:27:00Z 32.267N 76.083W 977.7 mb
(~ 28.87 inHg) 293 meters
(~ 961 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 109° at 28 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 32.2 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 26.1 knots (~ 30.1 mph)
93.3%



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0059
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1101 AM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TX/SOUTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 071501Z - 072101Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE NEAR A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. CELL TRAINING
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WEST-CENTRAL
TX. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS 25-30 KTS OF 850 HPA INFLOW --
APPROACHING THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND -- PER VAD WIND PROFILES
NEAR A BAROCLINIC TROUGH/WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PER GPS INFORMATION ARE CLOSE TO 1.25", NEAR THE
LOWER THRESHOLD FOR A BROADER FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG LIE NEARBY AND UPSTREAM PER THE MOST
RECENT SPC REANALYSIS -- A HINT THAT FORWARD PROPAGATION IS
EXPECTED.

AREA SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z ALONG WITH RAP-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PROGRESSION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
NORTH TODAY. THE BREADTH OF INFLOW INTO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
(CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED) IS BROAD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CELL
TRAINING TO BE A POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ADDING TO THIS
POSSIBILITY IS THE RECENT THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, WHICH
IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5". THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IMPLIES
THAT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH 1.5-1.75" AN HOUR IN
STRONGER CELLS OR WHERE CELLS TRAIN -- CELL MERGERS COULD EXCEED
THIS ESTIMATE.

WHILE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST, ONCE CONVECTION
BETTER ORGANIZES, IT SHOULD TEND TO FOLLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS ALSO IMPLIED BY THE 1000-500 HPA
THICKNESS LINES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CURRENT/EXPECTED SURFACE
CAPE GRADIENT. THE 00Z NSSL WRF, 12Z NAM CONEST, AND 13Z HRRR
HAVE CAPTURED THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE BEST.
CONSIDERING RECENTLY SATURATED SOILS AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
RATES, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...
Quoting 69. HurricaneAndre:

Do you think that we have Ana?
A Yes
B No
C Maybe


Nah, they might name it, but it will be a misnomer if they do.
Quoting 76. HurricaneAndre:

Ana is here?
not yet has to build more areal convection over center
if it even does
first 24hrs has passed its struggling with convective issues
Quoting 64. StormTrackerScott:

If you think NASA and the CFSv2 are nuts then you should see the Euro as it is around 3.4C for a peak. Numbers unheard even if it does have a warm bias take 1C off and you still average a 2.4C event. Crazy!



Could you show me any paper or published report showing a consistent or even a spring barrier time period that would support w degree off
Quoting 68. hydrus:

To be honest, i didnt think it possible, but i didnt think Hurricane Camille's 24 and a half foot storm surge could be surpassed either.


People give me crap but I knew all of these years with no El-Nino was leading up to something big especially when it busted last year I knew then for sure it comes next year and people I thought I was nuts. Reason for my thinking is all of this massive amount of Oceanic Heat build up across ther W-Pac the last 5 to 6 years was eventually going to unlock and come east and here it comes as it is already across Nino 4 (30C SST's) with Dr. Phil klotzbach tweeting that Nino 4 has the highest May value since records have been kept surpassing 1997 by far and surpassing 1915 by 0.1C. That right there was what really sealed the deal for me. Also there is forecast to be significant SOI drops the next 2 weeks as ridging occurs over Australia.
Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

first 24 has passed its struggling with convective issues


24 what? Hours?
Quoting 87. ricderr:




Could you show me any paper or published report showing a consistent or even a spring barrier time period that would support w degree off


That's me saying that as I have noticed at times the Euro and CFSv2 being a full 1C off. Not scientific just my observations.
A good read and analysis of the 1918-1919 El-Nino:

Link
Quoting 54. StormTrackerScott:

Ouch! Posted this so that you guys can see the dramatic increase from last month.

April update


May update



not buying the models especially your fav CFS model
not buying models till we get out of this crap model period
and that isn't till end of this month and into June
Quoting 89. 62901IL:



24 what? Hours?
only thing stopping naming is a missing expanding CDO
80/80

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 210
miles south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border
is now producing 40-45 mph winds mainly to the north and west of the
center. Environmental conditions are favorable for some additional
development, and any increase in the organization of the associated
thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a subtropical
cyclone. The low is expected to drift to the north or north-
northwest over the next couple of days, and interests along the
southeastern coast of the United States should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain
is expected over portions of the coastal southeastern United States
for the next few days. For additional information, see products
from your local National Weather Service forecast office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system is scheduled for 8
PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Quoting 93. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

only thing stopping naming is a missing expanding CDO


Ah. I see.
Quoting 78. 62901IL:



YEAH BUDDY!!!!!!!!!!!



We're getting storms monday! All of IL is! Forecast says potential for severe t-storms saturday through monday.
All I have to say is overall great news coming to California but could be bad in a way as it could come all at once that meaning rain/snow. Also likely could be lots of wildfires before the rains come but that is where the bad comes in burnt ground with heavy rains falling on top of that dry hard burnt soil means massive runoffs and mudslides.
Quoting 96. TimTheWxMan:




We're getting storms monday! All of IL is! Forecast says potential for severe t-storms saturday through monday.


Yeah!!!!

WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
During the strongest El-Nino's San Francisco gets 30" plus inches of rain during the October thru April time frame per Dr. Phil Klotzbach. I wonder what the number is for LA though?
Quoting 69. HurricaneAndre:

Do you think that we have Ana?
A Yes
B No
C Maybe


A yes

Quoting 74. HurricaneAndre:

I think 90/100 or 100/100 next TWO


I think recon will find closed LLCOC
and the STWO will say any increase in convection will result in the formation of a tropical cyclone
Quoting 100. wunderkidcayman:


A yes



I think recon will find closed LLCOC
and the STWO will say any increase in convection will result in the formation of a tropical cyclone


See comment 94.
Quoting 94. 62901IL:

80/80

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 210
miles south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border
is now producing 40-45 mph winds mainly to the north and west of the
center. Environmental conditions are favorable for some additional
development, and any increase in the organization of the associated
thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a subtropical
cyclone. The low is expected to drift to the north or north-
northwest over the next couple of days, and interests along the
southeastern coast of the United States should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain
is expected over portions of the coastal southeastern United States
for the next few days. For additional information, see products
from your local National Weather Service forecast office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system is scheduled for 8
PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent



well close enough
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:



People give me crap but I knew all of these years with no El-Nino was leading up to something big especially when it busted last year I knew then for sure it comes next year and people I thought I was nuts. Reason for my thinking is all of this massive amount of Oceanic Heat build up across ther W-Pac the last 5 to 6 years was eventually going to unlock and come east and here it comes as it is already across Nino 4 (30C SST's) with Dr. Phil klotzbach tweeting that Nino 4 has the highest May value since records have been kept surpassing 1997 by far and surpassing 1915 by 0.1C. That right there was what really sealed the deal for me. Also there is forecast to be significant SOI drops the next 2 weeks as ridging occurs over Australia.
Things were moving fast toward an El Nino then stalled. I figured the cold water from the southern hemisphere had an affect , slowing the process down. One could see on sat pics that cold water was venturing into the waters where Nino originates. Complex stuff. I am a student before anything, and learn what i can here and from books.
Quoting 84. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not yet has to build more areal convection over center


For a tropical storm, perhaps...... but for a SUB-tropical storm, not so much...... my personal opinion is that 90L meets the criteria to be a named STS.......

But what the hades do I know..... I am just a redneck from SC... LOL

Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:

All I have to say is overall great news coming to California but could be bad in a way as it could come all at once that meaning rain/snow. Also likely could be lots of wildfires before the rains come but that is where the bad comes in burnt ground with heavy rains falling on top of that dry hard burnt soil means massive runoffs and mudslides.


Hey Scott, it's very dry in C FL, especially W C FL. Hopefully we get some rain next week.
Quoting 69. HurricaneAndre:

Do you think that we have Ana?
A Yes
B No
C Maybe




C. Maybe.


However, there's not enough convection yet.
Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:

All I have to say is overall great news coming to California but could be bad in a way as it could come all at once that meaning rain/snow. Also likely could be lots of wildfires before the rains come but that is where the bad comes in burnt ground with heavy rains falling on top of that dry hard burnt soil means massive runoffs and mudslides.
Yep, but that is if Nino performs in its normal manner. This strange weather pattern could produce unexpected changes..Mother Nature is known for changing her effects on things.
Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:

All I have to say is overall great news coming to California but could be bad in a way as it could come all at once that meaning rain/snow. Also likely could be lots of wildfires before the rains come but that is where the bad comes in burnt ground with heavy rains falling on top of that dry hard burnt soil means massive runoffs and mudslides.
It might be great news for California, but bad news for countries like India and Australia where the monsoon season becomes disrupted resulting in droughts and crop losses in those parts of the world, most importantly impacting people's lives and the economies of those countries, hopefully I am wrong and this El Nino only ends up being moderate at best.
Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

first 24hrs has passed its struggling with convective issues


Subtropical storms always do during this time in their lives. The huge convergence band (sometimes a front depending on how it develops) is shifting away from the cyclone. This band was feeding the system energy but it disappeared last night.

This system is developing convection in 2 bands to the east of the center as well as clusters to the west. For a subtropical storm at this point in its lifecycle it is doing well. I keep seeing people use the term CDO and needing a CDO but a system with a CDO would be a tropical system. Subtropical systems develop a banded convective scheme not a CDO convective scheme. So for subtropical this system is healthy. Ugly like most of them are, but healthy.
Quoting 104. thelmores:



For a tropical storm, perhaps...... but for a SUB-tropical storm, not so much...... my personal opinion is that 90L meets the criteria to be a named STS.......

But what the hades do I know..... I am just a redneck from SC... LOL


Its my experience that rednecks have substantial knowledge of weather. They are almost all farmers...In these parts anyway..:)



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK THROUGH NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071752Z - 071945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM SRN OK THROUGH NRN TX THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE LARGELY EVOLVED INTO AN MCS FROM NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. STORM EMBEDDED WITHIN LEADING
EDGE OF MCS OVER SWRN OK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
SFC LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS UNDERGOING RAPID RECOVERY
AS AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NWD...ALLOWING RICHER
/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ TO ADVECT THROUGH NRN TX AND SRN OK. MIXED
CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN THE MCS AND GENERALLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...DEEP SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES
WITHIN THE MCS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. MOREOVER A
FEW DISCRETE STORMS MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP SEPARATE FROM THE MCS. AS
THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE RELATIVELY SMALL AMBIENT
HODOGRAPHS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL THE MAIN
THREATS AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THIS AFTERNOON.
Quoting 101. 62901IL:



See comment 94.

no I don't need to see #94
I know
and it did say what I said
Quoting 112. wunderkidcayman:


no I don't need to see #94
I know
and it did say what I said


Oh ok.
Quoting 103. hydrus:

Things were moving fast toward an El Nino then stalled. I figures the cold water from the southern hemisphere had an affect , slowing the process down. One could see on sat pics that cold water was venturing into the waters where Nino originates. Complex stuff. I am a student before anything, and learn what i can here and from books.


Kelvin Wave after Kelvin Wave moving East with each one fizzling but Mother Nature kept trying and kept sending them East. Now FINALLY the recent event seems to have took and it appears Mother Nature is pissed this year. GW I don't know but she maybe trying to tell us something and we better listen I'm affraid.
Quoting 105. tampabaymatt:



Hey Scott, it's very dry in C FL, especially W C FL. Hopefully we get some rain next week.


Models show scattered convection come next week so hopefully some lucky folks we get some rain but it appears the later we go in May the more widspread the rains become so we have to hang in there hard though as 0.00 fell by me yesterday but 1.63" fell 5 miles to my NE in Lake Mary. Depressing I know!
CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) -
Two people have been rescued from a storm-tossed sailboat in the Charleston Harbor, according to Coast Guard officials.

Charleston County Rescue authorities say the rescue was near the North Jetty.

According to Charleston County rescue officials, there are six foot swells out near the Jetties and up to 3-foot swells in the harbor.

They're encouraging everyone to stay out of the water today.
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:



Kelvin Wave after Kelvin Wave moving East with each one fizzling but Mother Nature kept trying and kept sending them East. Now FINALLY recent event seems to have took and it appears Mother Nature is pissed this year. GW I don't know but she maybe trying to tell us something and we better listen I'm affraid.
That would support my cold water intrusion theory..:)
Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:

During the strongest El-Nino's San Francisco gets 30" plus inches of rain during the October thru April time frame per Dr. Phil Klotzbach. I wonder what the number is for LA though?


Pretty similar. Link
recon reporting
reached LLC again
Quoting 109. HurricaneKing:



Subtropical storms always do during this time in their lives. The huge convergence band (sometimes a front depending on how it develops) is shifting away from the cyclone. This band was feeding the system energy but it disappeared last night.

This system is developing convection in 2 bands to the east of the center as well as clusters to the west. For a subtropical storm at this point in its lifecycle it is doing well. I keep seeing people use the term CDO and needing a CDO but a system with a CDO would be a tropical system. Subtropical systems develop a banded convective scheme not a CDO convective scheme. So for subtropical this system is healthy. Ugly like most of them are, but healthy.


The question is, can it transition to tropical. It has some time to do so. It will need a warm core and CDO to do so.
Quoting 120. StormJunkie:



The question is, can it transition to tropical. It has some time to do so. It will need a warm core and CDO to do so.
If it sticks to the gulf steam it has a shot, if not, i say nah.
Be careful of conventional wisdom i.e. "el nino = California rain" ......



Link


Dangerous situation brewing in Oklahoma and nearby areas. Storms are firing all over the place.


Dangerous situation brewing in Oklahoma.
Checking in from Charleston- It has been a very rainy and windy day here thus far. If current trends hold, we are certainly going to get much more precipitation than was originally thought. Almost feels like a wet November day and not a tropical system.
sorry for the dupe post
127. RayT
I've gotta agree.

looking on satellite, it almost looks like a hurricane with all the banding. of course, there is no well defined eye and the cloudcover is stronger on the outer edge of the storm as compared to the center (typical for subtropical storms)

but it definitely looks like a subtropical cyclone on the satellite view.

Honestly I am surprised they didnt name it already.

Quoting 51. LostTomorrows:

Just a weird, potentially poorly educated question from a lurker:

It seems 90L is destined for designation, all of the signs are pointing to an increased organization and it seems to be happening at a quicker pace than most had thought... especially wind-wise.
So I'm just wondering if perhaps 90L is having this mutually beneficial relationship with the ridiculous instability over the US Plains? It seems as though that much of the continental dry air that should be affecting 90L is being gobbled up by the low over the south-central US to feed its own instability while 90L's increased cyclonic flow is helping more Gulf moisture get drawn into the unstable weather too.

Dunno, but I've gotta feeling we'll see Ana before day's end. Even if the circulation's still elongated, 90L's proximity to land and overall trend towards organization may prompt an early name. Especially if the winds still increase and creep nearer towards the centre.
At least NHC is now committing to sub-tropical storm status.............I would note that convection is trying to fire towards the center.  Arguably, if convection continues to fire there, and a CDO actually forms over the center, one could wonder/argue if it could also be "tropical" assuming the SST's are close enough to 80.

A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
Quoting 116. presslord:

CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) -
Two people have been rescued from a storm-tossed sailboat in the Charleston Harbor, according to Coast Guard officials.

Charleston County Rescue authorities say the rescue was near the North Jetty.

According to Charleston County rescue officials, there are six foot swells out near the Jetties and up to 3-foot swells in the harbor.

They're encouraging everyone to stay out of the water today.



I think it goes without saying.....today is NOT a good beach day.
Interestingly enough, the W and NW side of this hybrid has the most moisture. Typically in these systems, the west side is usually bone dry, with the heavier weather concentrated in the NE quadrant.
Quoting 116. presslord:

CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) -
Two people have been rescued from a storm-tossed sailboat in the Charleston Harbor, according to Coast Guard officials.

Charleston County Rescue authorities say the rescue was near the North Jetty.

According to Charleston County rescue officials, there are six foot swells out near the Jetties and up to 3-foot swells in the harbor.

They're encouraging everyone to stay out of the water today.



NWS in Charleston spared no details telling people not to challenge the seas today.

EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. MARINERS SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR INLETS...CUTS AND BAYS. SWELLS
APPROACHING THESE AREAS CAN LEAD TO LARGE...DANGEROUS BREAKING
WAVES. KEEP A CLEAR DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE OCEAN. STRUCTURES SUCH
AS PIERS AND JETTIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY TREACHEROUS.
Watched KFOR's live coverage of the 2013 Moore tornado again this morning. It never ceases to give me chills each time I watch it. Unbelievable, raw power of mother nature.
Also noting (not a scientific observation) that the Invest is in that geographic location of the SE coast in the "curve" between Florida and the Outerbanks; wondering if some of that is helping keeping the circulation going (like we have sometimes noted with the Bay of Capeche effect). We have seen a lot of tropical depressions or weak tropical storms in this region over the years ramp up a little bit before land-fall (along with the bump from Gulf Stream sst's).
Hope it doesn't stop your party Press! Guess we'll know soon if think it's STS yet. Hope our WPac veers N a little early.

Feeling like late spring in S C IL, dew pts only in mid 50s, feels higher though - were spoiled w/ those ones in 30s last week. Lower 80s on way to mid 80s, press hanging around 30", down slightly from yesterday. S - SW winds picking up significantly, 10-20 w/ 30 gust. Rain supposed to move into area later tonight (hopefully after I mow the grass) stay in off on waves thru Sat eve, then our severe risk may p/u Sun.

Heard TX, OK, KS will have 5 or 6 Torcons Sat. 'tis the season! Stay safe! Sad to hear the death was a drowning in shelter. Rem swimming in the root cellar we used as one as a kid after a particularly heavy storm event had passed and dumped on us.
Anyone else getting the 'this webpage is not available' message, when they refresh?
Recon reporting
mission over
recon is heading back to Keesler base
20150506_143107.jpg

My boy saw HH in MB yesterday!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 18:36Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:54:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°21'N 77°30'W (31.35N 77.5W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 31kts (From the ESE at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 298m (978ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 328m (1,076ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 8 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 94 nautical miles (108 statute miles) to the WNW (289°) from the flight level center at 15:36:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) which was observed 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the SW (231°) from the flight level center at 18:18:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WND 55 KT AT 2500FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 07/2330Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 07/2015Z
D. 30.7N 78.0W
E. 07/2315Z TO 08/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Next one at 3:15 CDT.
Quoting 125. nash36:

Checking in from Charleston- It has been a very rainy and windy day here thus far. If current trends hold, we are certainly going to get much more precipitation than was originally thought. Almost feels like a wet November day and not a tropical system.


With the winds coming from the north, no surprise it seems a little chilly. Will be an interesting 24-36 hrs to see exactly what happens with 90L..... I have yet to see a model run or forecast I agree with completely. That is what makes these hybrid storms so unusual..... and difficult to forecast.
Ok I'm out be back later today
from the NWS, Wilmington, NC



Quoting 141. hydrus:





It's been a long time since I've seen that much rain forecast for the Southern Plains and the Great Plains at the same time.
Quoting 140. thelmores:



With the winds coming from the north, no surprise it seems a little chilly. Will be an interesting 24-36 hrs to see exactly what happens with 90L..... I have yet to see a model run or forecast I agree with completely. That is what makes these hybrid storms so unusual..... and difficult to forecast.


Agreed, Thel. Seems like over the last couple of years, we've had more "could go either way" storms, rather than the slam-dunk systems.
Looking worse for the Philippines..Unless it weakens before landfall..

Quoting 144. Sfloridacat5:



It's been a long time since I've seen that much rain forecast for the Southern Plains and the Great Plains at the same time.
Yep..Thats a lot of real estate getting heavy rain. If that were to persist, problems would be many..
What is the earliest tropical storm to make landfall in South Carolina?
Quoting 125. nash36:

Checking in from Charleston- It has been a very rainy and windy day here thus far. If current trends hold, we are certainly going to get much more precipitation than was originally thought. Almost feels like a wet November day and not a tropical system.


If it makes warm core, I expect that "feeling" to change some.

I found this significant. I could not find this temp difference in the early passes.

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 298m (978ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 328m (1,076ft)
Quoting 146. hydrus:

Looking worse for the Philippines..Unless it weakens before landfall..




Almost looks like it's weakening, or going through an eye wall replacement cycle.
Quoting 150. ILwthrfan:



Almost looks like it's weakening, or going through a eye wall replacement cycle.
Eye wall replacement...i think..:)
Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:

During the strongest El-Nino's San Francisco gets 30" plus inches of rain during the October thru April time frame per Dr. Phil Klotzbach. I wonder what the number is for LA though?
90 too 100 if its a super charged nino
It might be great news for California, but bad news for countries like India and Australia where the monsoon season becomes disrupted resulting in droughts and crop losses in those parts of the world, most importantly impacting people's lives and the economies of those countries, hopefully I am wrong and this El Nino only ends up being moderate at best.

while india is reporting a forecast of a slightly below normal rainfall.....australia has seen above average precip and even some major flooding...quite odd for them in times of el nino
Myth 5: When there is an El Niño, there is lots of rain in California. No -- The answer is not always and not everywhere. Historical records for the past six plus decades for Central California, including the SF Bay Area, show that during the twenty-two El Niño events the rainfall has been roughly above normal (i.e., > 120%) half the time and below normal (<80%) the other half. If just the six strong El Niño events are looked at then the rainfall has been above normal four of the five seasons, and all four were at least 140% of normal. However, if only the weak and moderate El Niños are examined then it is seen that six of the 16 years received below normal rainfall, five near normal (80%-120%) and five above normal. [see Climatology of El Niño Events and California Precipitation]

Over the same span, Northern California had three wet years years during the five strong events, with five above-normal seasons during the seventeen weak-to-moderate El Niños.

Southern California showed more of a wet bias during strong El Niños with above-normal rain in four of the five seasons, near normal the fifth year. During weak to moderate events Southern California precipitation was above normal six of the 17 seasons, near normal six seasons and below normal the remaining five yearss.

The bottom line is that California can get wet during El Niño, but not always. As a matter of fact, the California drought in the 1976-77 winter was during a weak El Niño. It is important to keep in mind that El Niño is not the only thing happening in the atmosphere and that other patterns can either enhance or detract from its overall impact
Quoting 153. ricderr:

It might be great news for California, but bad news for countries like India and Australia where the monsoon season becomes disrupted resulting in droughts and crop losses in those parts of the world, most importantly impacting people's lives and the economies of those countries, hopefully I am wrong and this El Nino only ends up being moderate at best.

while india is reporting a forecast of a slightly below normal rainfall.....australia has seen above average precip and even some major flooding...quite odd for them in times of el nino
I am starting to believe that it actually may be better to have a strong Nino as opposed to a weak or moderate. If strong, a higher chance of what would be expected may occur , therefore more accurate predictions, so people can ready themselves. on the other hand, if it is weak or moderate, the strange pattern around the world could have unforeseen impacts, leading to more risks and difficulty forecasting events. JMO
Quoting 149. StormJunkie:



If it makes warm core, I expect that "feeling" to change some.

I found this significant. I could not find this temp difference in the early passes.

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 298m (978ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 328m (1,076ft)



That is interesting...... that would seem to indicate some transitioning already????
Feeder Band closing in on the North Carolina Coast

160. VR46L
90L RGB

161. MahFL
New convection near the center, perfect :

Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

90 too 100 if its a super charged nino
That would be terrible, but those aquifers would fill substantially.
Meanwhile the Band that initial came on-shore at the NC/SC border is continuing down the coast line and is now approaching Savannah, GA

Quoting 161. MahFL:

New convection near the center, perfect :


cute little thundershower that is awww


About to get the squall line here.



18:37:00Z 30.367N 79.900W 699.5 mb

(~ 20.66 inHg) 3,118 meters
(~ 10,230 feet) 1013.7 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg) - From 331° at 32 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 36.8 mph) 3.4°C
(~ 38.1°F) 0.1°C
(~ 32.2°F) 33 knots
(~ 38.0 mph) 40 knots*
(~ 46.0 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0.00 in/hr*) 38.8 knots* (~ 44.6 mph*)

Tropical Storm* 121.2%*

At 18:27:30Z (first observation), the observation was 136 statue miles (218 km) to the ENE (57°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
At 18:37:00Z (last observation), the observation was 105 statue miles (170 km) to the NE (40°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Charleston WFO Rainbow still image

Quoting 162. hydrus:

That would be terrible, but those aquifers would fill substantially.
the valley will become Lake California
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 165. SavannahStorm:



About to get the squall line here.


Webcam of Savannah River:

Link
Quoting 156. hydrus:

I am starting to believe that it actually may be better to have a strong Nino as opposed to a weak or moderate. If strong, a higher chance of what would be expected may occur , therefore more accurate predictions, so people can ready themselves. on the other hand, if it is weak or moderate, the strange pattern around the world could have unforeseen impacts, leading to more risks and difficulty forecasting events. JMO


Hope it hold off for a bit and peaks as a strong el nino during the upcoming winter! We need some agua in Cali!
WTNT21 KNGU 071600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT SER 2015-001 UPDATE 01//
REF/A/RMG FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/061800Z MAY 15//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT SER 2015-001//
RMKS/1. THIS MESSAGE SUPERCEDES REFERENCE A.
2. FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.8N 77.5W TO 35.7N 78.0W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POSSIBLE
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM AN
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF GEORGIA. AVAILABLE
DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TR
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
3. REMARKS: INVEST 90L IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 30.8N 77.5W MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND OVER THE GULF
STREAM. A STABLE DRY AIR MASS SITUATED OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOULD
HINDER FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE OVER THE
WEEKEND. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THAT A LARGE AREA OF GALE
FORCE WINDS EXTENDS NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY
081600Z.//

Quoting 148. wxgeek723:

What is the earliest tropical storm to make landfall in South Carolina?

An unnamed storm that made landfall on May 16, 1916 maybe? Don't hold me to that.

Quoting 171. Patrap:


Looks like landfall around Myrtle Beach.

90L RGB Loop

floater up on
90L/PRE-Ana
convection starting to pop over LLCOC and N, W, and E parts of the circulation



when is next recon they may find system stronger too
3 days to move from where it is now to onshore? Sounds like a flood threat to me and perhaps beach erosion as well. Rip current will be a threat as well.
Quoting 173. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hope it hold off for a bit and peaks as a strong el nino during the upcoming winter! We need some agua in Cali!
Greetings Joe..I know they need a lot of water...Hope it comes at a paced rate.
as of 16 mins ago

official designation should happen between now and 11pm I would think
Quoting 179. GTstormChaserCaleb:

3 days to move from where it is now to onshore? Sounds like a flood threat to me and perhaps beach erosion as well. Rip current will be a threat as well.


It's interesting to see just how large the circulation is, the initial band that came onshore earlier might make it all the way to Jacksonville, and the next large band that is approaching OBX and the North Carolina Coast.
Dang...

Quoting 182. wunderkidcayman:

official designation should happen between now and 11pm I would think


Good thinking! I think so too.


Definately could look better
90L Rainbow Loop

Quoting 187. JrWeathermanFL:



Definately could look better

and could look a ton worse
With surveys ongoing across the central and southern Plains, the first significant tornado from yesterday, and the first EF3 tornado during 2015, has been confirmed.

NWS Norman has confirmed the afternoon Bridge Creek tornado was at least an EF2, the Norman tornado was at least an EF1, and last night's I-35 tornado was at least an EF2.

Segwick/Harvey Counties EF-3 Tornado

Quoting 161. MahFL:

New convection near the center, perfect :


Thunderstorms nearing the center.
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With surveys ongoing across the central and southern Plains, the first significant tornado from yesterday, and the first EF3 tornado during 2015, has been confirmed.

Segwick/Harvey Counties EF-3 Tornado




Amazing!
Special message from NHC:

NHC will not be initiating advisories for the low off the southeast U.S. coast at 5 PM. Advisories could begin at 11 PM.
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Special message from NHC:

NHC will not be initiating advisories for the low off the southeast U.S. coast at 5 PM. Advisories could begin at 11 PM.



FEGELEIN!!!!!!

*my way of cursing, for those curious of heart*
Probably want to see how that new convection unfolds throughout the evening hours before classifying.
Quoting 195. Drakoen:

Probably want to see how that new convection unfolds throughout the evening hours before classifying.


A good hypothesis.
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With surveys ongoing across the central and southern Plains, the first significant tornado from yesterday, and the first EF3 tornado during 2015, has been confirmed.

NWS Norman has confirmed the afternoon Bridge Creek tornado was at least an EF2, the Norman tornado was at least an EF1, and last night's I-35 tornado was at least an EF2.

Segwick/Harvey Counties EF-3 Tornado




The tornado up in northern Illinois a few weeks back never reached EF3 intensity? Just curious because I don't know. It was a pretty mean looking tornado for a while.
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With surveys ongoing across the central and southern Plains, the first significant tornado from yesterday, and the first EF3 tornado during 2015, has been confirmed.

Segwick/Harvey Counties EF-3 Tornado




"Segwick" county is Sedgwick. Oopsie on the NWS. I can share a story about my time playing in the KS Jayhawk league(baseball) at Eck Stadium in the 90's but that would be off topic. Arrived there right after the Andover tornado in 1991..



Quoting 154. ricderr:

Myth 5: When there is an El Niño, there is lots of rain in California. No -- The answer is not always and not everywhere. Historical records for the past six plus decades for Central California, including the SF Bay Area, show that during the twenty-two El Niño events the rainfall has been roughly above normal (i.e., > 120%) half the time and below normal (<80%) the other half. If just the six strong El Niño events are looked at then the rainfall has been above normal four of the five seasons, and all four were at least 140% of normal. However, if only the weak and moderate El Niños are examined then it is seen that six of the 16 years received below normal rainfall, five near normal (80%-120%) and five above normal. [see Climatology of El Niño Events and California Precipitation]

Over the same span, Northern California had three wet years years during the five strong events, with five above-normal seasons during the seventeen weak-to-moderate El Niños.

Southern California showed more of a wet bias during strong El Niños with above-normal rain in four of the five seasons, near normal the fifth year. During weak to moderate events Southern California precipitation was above normal six of the 17 seasons, near normal six seasons and below normal the remaining five yearss.

The bottom line is that California can get wet during El Niño, but not always. As a matter of fact, the California drought in the 1976-77 winter was during a weak El Niño. It is important to keep in mind that El Niño is not the only thing happening in the atmosphere and that other patterns can either enhance or detract from its overall impact



It does appear now that we will have values 1.5C or greater for Nino 3.4 come later in June then 2.0 to 2.5C in July. After that values hold steady in that range then come October thru December is when we could get some 3.0C readings. If this does indeed happen then California is a lock for a very wet and snowy Fall/Winter.
Quoting 194. 62901IL:



FEGELEIN!!!!!!

*my way of cursing, for those curious of heart*


That was funny. I actually said it out loud to see how silly it sounded. Sounded just as silly as I suspected. Lol.
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Special message from NHC:

NHC will not be initiating advisories for the low off the southeast U.S. coast at 5 PM. Advisories could begin at 11 PM.



yes NHC wants more convection to build over the system more before designation

I guess NHC wants to call it tropical and not sub tropical so they wait

but I have to caution NHC if they don't get it out in time people may get hurt or killed
especially by them rip currents

you know lots of "idiots" love to go beach to drown in rip currents and some people are just unlucky
so those warnings need to be posted early
I checked. The Illinois tornado was an EF4.

April 9, 2015

Eleven tornadoes were confirmed across Illinois: seven in north central Illinois in the NWS Chicago County Warning Area (CWA), two in northwest Illinois in the NWS Quad Cities CWA, and two in central Illinois in the NWS Lincoln CWA.

Six of the tornadoes across north central Illinois formed from one supercell thunderstorm. This includes the strongest tornado that was a long track EF-4 with maximum winds of 200 mph. This tornado began from near Franklin Grove (Lee County), through the northwest side of Rochelle (Ogle County), across I-39, through Fairdale (DeKalb County), and ending south of Belvidere (far southern Boone County). This tornado caused two fatalities, both in Fairdale, and a total of 22 injuries.

A tornado of this magnitude is quite rare. This was the first EF-4 or stronger tornado in the NWS Chicago County Warning Area in 25 years, since an F5 tornado struck Plainfield on August 28, 1990. This was the strongest tornado on record (since 1950) for both Ogle and DeKalb Counties.

This was the first EF-4 tornado or stronger in Illinois since two EF-4 tornadoes occurred on November 17, 2013, including one that struck the community of Washington. This was the 33rd EF-4 or stronger tornado in Illinois on record (since 1950).
Anyone got a boat?

We may not dry out here till next Thursday if everything sets up right..

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
WORKING THROUGH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION. THE HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO INTERROGATE THE SYSTEM THROUGH RECONNAISSANCE AND
MAY DETERMINE IT HAS ENOUGH STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY TO WARRANT A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N AND
THEN W WITH TIME GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE N. SEVERAL OF THE
MODELS ARE BRINGING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR SOUTH OF
WINYAH BAY SAT NIGHT OR SUN.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL OR
NOT...THE FORECAST WILL BE WET WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SPIRALING ONTO THE COAST. FROM TIME TO TIME THESE
BANDS WILL LIKELY STALL AND THIS IS WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
ADD UP QUICKLY AND OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THUS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW AREAS WITH THE FLOOD RISK HIGHEST ACROSS MORE URBANIZED AREAS.
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD DECREASE WITH
AMOUNTS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 PERHAPS NOT EXCEEDING AN INCH.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST...UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO 40 MPH AT THE BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE A SHADE LOWER...15 TO
25 MPH. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION WITH BUILDING BREAKERS...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT AND ROUGH SURF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF POSSIBLY HYBRID LOW IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE
AREA DUE TO VERY WEAK STEERING. THE LOW SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST
PARTIAL OVER LAND EXPOSURE AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND AT LEAST PART OF THE CIRCULATION MAKE RAINFALL
CHANCES AND EVEN MORE SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. WILL KEEP POPS IN LOW CHANCE CATEGORY ON MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SINCE GUIDANCE HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT PROMISE A DRY FORECAST ON TUESDAY EITHER AS A
PRE-FRONTAL COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING WHAT WILL LIKELY TURN
OUT TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON. A COOL FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY A BIT LATER AND SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. IT MAY IN FACT STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO PRECLUDE MUCH DRYING THURSDAY.
Quoting 201. wunderkidcayman:



yes NHC wants more convection to build over the system more before designation

I guess NHC wants to call it tropical and not sub tropical so they wait

but I have to caution NHC if they don't get it out in time people may get hurt or killed
especially by them rip currents

you know lots of "idiots" love to go beach to drown in rip currents and some people are just unlucky
so those warnings need to be posted early


Not the NHC's problem if some bozo with a double digit IQ decides to take to the water in conditions like these. Boils down to common sense. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out, "I probably shouldn't test the waters today."

But sadly, we all know someone is going to get the Darwin award.
time to rock and roll

202, my guess is he specifically meant an EF3 rating.
Quoting 197. Sfloridacat5:



The tornado up in northern Illinois a few weeks back never reached EF3 intensity? Just curious because I don't know. It was a pretty mean looking tornado for a while.

The Rochelle-Fairdale tornado was an upper-end EF4. I meant this was the first tornado to peak as an EF3. It's uncommon to see our first EF4 before our first EF3.
Quoting 194. 62901IL:



FEGELEIN!!!!!!

*my way of cursing, for those curious of heart*

lol
Magarlach!

my way
NHC bhfuil tusa ag scige ormsa!!

now ok putting it nicely
what I said is basically is
nhc are you joking
in native Celtic and yes its pretty much a dead language now

Quoting 204. nash36:



Not the NHC's problem if some bozo with a double digit IQ decides to take to the water in conditions like these. Boils down to common sense. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out, "I probably shouldn't test the waters today."

But sadly, we all know someone is going to get the Darwin award.


Yeah, the surf/seas get really high/rough all the time from strong coastal storms and frontal systems. Local rip current and high surf advisories are most likely already up along the affected areas.
Quoting 184. wunderkidcayman:




Looks like multiple vortices in an elongated CoC. Until that gets cleaned up, Ana it is not.
Quoting 207. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Rochelle-Fairdale tornado was an upper-end EF4. I meant this was the first tornado to peak as an EF3. It's uncommon to see our first EF4 before our first EF3.


Technically an EF4 would have been an EF3 at different points in its life cycle.
But I get what you're saying about it being the first tornado of 2015 to peak as an EF3 (or to be classified as an EF3)
Quoting 204. nash36:



Not the NHC's problem if some bozo with a double digit IQ decides to take to the water in conditions like these. Boils down to common sense. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out, "I probably shouldn't test the waters today."

But sadly, we all know someone is going to get the Darwin award.


Considering the fact that all the local news reports have been advising viewers for a few days about the possibility of strong rip currents, I think the word has been getting out - whether people listen ...
Quoting 204. nash36:



Not the NHC's problem if some bozo with a double digit IQ decides to take to the water in conditions like these. Boils down to common sense. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out, "I probably shouldn't test the waters today."

But sadly, we all know someone is going to get the Darwin award.


lol

when Hurricane Ivan hit Cayman a guy thought it was an extremely smart idea to ride Ivan out in a small Aluminum boat half a mile to a mile out in water
we found the stinky rotten deteriorated body in as bush few weeks later

 Charleston Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather RadioCoastal Flood Advisory, Coastal Hazard Statement, High Surf AdvisoryStatement as of 4:26 PM EDT on May 07, 2015

... High rip current risk now in effect through Friday evening...
... High surf advisory remains in effect until 6 PM EDT Friday...
... Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to
1 am EDT Friday...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a coastal
Flood Advisory... which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to
1 am EDT Friday.

* Rip currents... wind and wave conditions support the
development of very strong rip currents. These rip currents
will be life threatening to anyone who enters the surf.

* High surf... a low pressure system will linger off the lower
South Carolina coast through Friday... and could become tropical
as early as tonight. Breakers of 4-5 ft in the surf zone are
expected to continue into Friday as strong and gusty north winds
persist. Larger waves up to 6-8 ft further offshore and
building tidal departures leading up to high tide this evening
will also enhance the risk for beach erosion and high surf.

* High surf impacts... large breaking waves and rip currents will
be dangerous to anyone who enters the surf. Beach erosion along
Charleston County beaches is also expected.

* Coastal flooding... low-lying areas of south coastal South
Carolina that are adjacent to the Atlantic... tidal
rivers... marshes... harbors and the interacoastal waterway could
experience inundation of saltwater around the time of high tide
this evening due to shallow coastal flooding. This includes
downtown Charleston where tide levels will peak between 7.2 and
7.4 feet mean lower low water in The Harbor. High tide occurs in
Charleston Harbor around 1113 PM this evening.

* Coastal flooding impacts... inundation of saltwater in and near
low- lying coastal areas could lead to some Road closures and
flooding of properties.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

No one should enter the surf due to life threatening rip
currents.

Everyone should remain out of the water. Mariners should use
extreme caution... especially near inlets... cuts and bays. Swells
approaching these areas can lead to large... dangerous breaking
waves. Keep a clear distance away from the ocean. Structures such
as piers and jetties will be particularly treacherous.

Be prepared for the possibility of Road closures and minor
flooding of properties. If travel is necessary... do not attempt
to drive through water of unknown depth.





Brian K. Sullivan


Bloomberg - ‎Thursday‎, ‎May‎ ‎7‎, ‎2015

Bloomberg) -- A low-pressure system off the U.S. East Coast is on the cusp of becoming Subtropical Storm Ana, more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.


The system, about 210 miles (337 kilometers) from the border of North Carolina and South Carolina, had sustained winds of 40 to 45 miles per hour (64 to 72 kilometers per hour), according to a 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. While the wind speed met the 39-mph threshold for naming a storm, the system lacked the required organization.

“Environmental conditions are favorable for some additional development, and any increase in organization of the associated thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a subtropical cyclone,” Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist, wrote in the advisory. The NHC said the odds were 80 percent that a system would form within 48 hours.

In addition to some gusting winds, coastal areas of those states could receive 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters) of rain with some locally higher amounts, said Frank Pereira, a meteorologist with the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

If the storm becomes Ana, it will be the earliest such a system formed since Subtropical Storm Andrea developed off the mid-Atlantic coast on May 6, 2007, according to hurricane center records. The official start of the six-month Atlantic season is June 1.

Early Storms


The earliest storm on record fitting the criteria of a named system was on Jan. 3, 1938, said James Franklin, branch chief of the center’s Hurricane Specialist Unit. The earliest subtropical storm to form in any year was in January 1978.


From 1966 to 2009, the first named storm usually occurred by July 9, according to the center.

Forecasters are also watching a system in the Pacific that is nearing the Philippines.

Typhoon Noul is forecast to sweep over Luzon on May 10 with winds of at least 121 miles per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii. It will make a wide, sweeping arc before approaching Okinawa, Japan, on May 12 as a tropical storm.

It was about 766 miles east-southeast of Manila with maximum winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 system on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale used in the U.S., as of 11 a.m. New York time.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net Charlotte Porter, Bill Banker
Quoting 210. TimSoCal:



Looks like multiple vortices in an elongated CoC. Until that gets cleaned up, Ana it is not.

really I only see one and its starting to covered by convection and becoming less elongated
91 is doing its best to transition to purely tropical. Air mass is feeling and looking a lot more "tropical" in Charleston now. Hunters found a 2 degree warmer core earlier. And now the LLC may be consolidating near/under the new convection. Impressive for an early season storm. The fact it is parking itself near the Gulf Stream for the next two days will be a big part of whether it can complete the transition or not.
Quoting 218. StormJunkie:

91 is doing its best to transition to purely tropical. Air mass is feeling and looking a lot more "tropical" in Charleston now. Hunters found a 2 degree warmer core earlier. And now the LLC may be consolidating near/under the new convection. Impressive for an early season storm. The fact it is parking itself near the Gulf Stream for the next two days will be a big part of whether it can complete the transition or not.


you mean 90 not 91
Quoting 218. StormJunkie:

91 is doing its best to transition to purely tropical. Air mass is feeling and looking a lot more "tropical" in Charleston now. Hunters found a 2 degree warmer core earlier. And now the LLC may be consolidating near/under the new convection. Impressive for an early season storm. The fact it is parking itself near the Gulf Stream for the next two days will be a big part of whether it can complete the transition or not.


Spot on, SJ. We can certainly be in for more than we anticipated as late as yesterday. I really don't want Ana to park for 72hrs. We certainly don't need that much rain.
Quoting 218. StormJunkie:

91 is doing its best to transition to purely tropical. Air mass is feeling and looking a lot more "tropical" in Charleston now. Hunters found a 2 degree warmer core earlier. And now the LLC may be consolidating near/under the new convection. Impressive for an early season storm. The fact it is parking itself near the Gulf Stream for the next two days will be a big part of whether it can complete the transition or not.


Good Model Agreement on 90L Heading your general direction... Going to be interesting to see how strong the system can get.

90L is perfectly placed over the gulf stream and with wind shear relaxing and it starting to pop off convection near the center, looks like it won't be long until we have Ana. I think the NHC are waiting to see if the current convection will expand and persist.

90L/STS/XX/CX
Quoting 218. StormJunkie:

91 is doing its best to transition to purely tropical. Air mass is feeling and looking a lot more "tropical" in Charleston now. Hunters found a 2 degree warmer core earlier. And now the LLC may be consolidating near/under the new convection. Impressive for an early season storm. The fact it is parking itself near the Gulf Stream for the next two days will be a big part of whether it can complete the transition or not.


91?

To me it still lacks a well defined center of circulation, Rapid Scan Loop. Also appears a mid-level circulation is breaking off towards Georgia, but I may be seeing things :).

Recon plane on the way may sort things out.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
441 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

FLZ071-072-072130-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
441 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR
CENTRAL BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* AT 440 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A DEVELOPING LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27 TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSECTION
ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...
UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION
OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION.
THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...CORAL SPRINGS...DAVIE...PLANTATION...
SUNRISE...TAMARAC...MARGATE...LAUDERHILL...WESTON. ..NORTH
LAUDERDALE...LAUDERDALE LAKES...COOPER CITY...PARKLAND...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27...GODFREY ROAD...PINE ISLAND RIDGE...
MILE MARKER 30 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...SAWGRASS MILLS MALL AND
SOUTHWEST RANCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2614 8022 2596 8034 2596 8066 2618 8068
2633 8068 2634 8043 2633 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 248DEG 13KT 2629 8044 2602 8060

$$

BAXTER
Quoting 227. Grothar:


Hello Gro- Most of those tracks are bad news, even the least dangerous one will mean problems.
Quoting 211. Sfloridacat5:



Technically an EF4 would have been an EF3 at different points in its life cycle.
But I get what you're saying about it being the first tornado of 2015 to peak as an EF3 (or to be classified as an EF3)
Also, technically, anything N of I-80 is Northern IL, not N Central, that's wabit (Peoria area) up to I-80.

Didn't quite make 85 forecast, but close enough. Pressure has dipped below 30", S-SW winds about same, dew pts up a little. Hope the limbs stay in my big oak & maple trees while I'm mowing, little breezier than I prefer, but w/ rain in forecast next four days, has to be done!
In the middle of another tropical downpour here just north of Wilmington. Winds have been gusting over 35 mph as of late.
Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:




It does appear now that we will have values 1.5C or greater for Nino 3.4 come later in June then 2.0 to 2.5C in July. After that values hold steady in that range then come October thru December is when we could get some 3.0C readings. If this does indeed happen then California is a lock for a very wet and snowy Fall/Winter.


The winter of 1997-1998 was only one of two winters that produced less than 1" of snow in the DC metro area (the other was 1972-73, both produced 1/10") 1997-98 did produce an enormous amount of rain from many very wet systems. The mountains to our west in West Virginia did get record winter snow totals in 1997-98. 1972-73 was a disappointing winter at all elevations in the mid atlantic.

1997-98 is also the only winter I left my citrus trees outside (in Central MD) and unprotected all three calendar months DJF although a single night new years eve freeze to -7C destroyed my lemon fruits. I had to put the trees in the garage just once during a mid March arctic outbreak.

Quoting 226. nrtiwlnvragn:



91?

To me it still lacks a well defined center of circulation, Rapid Scan Loop. Also appears a mid-level circulation is breaking off towards Georgia, but I may be seeing things :).

Recon plane on the way may sort things out.


It looks fairly well defined near the convection. If not it wouldn't be the first time they took the centroid of the vortices.
Quoting 182. wunderkidcayman:

official designation should happen between now and 11pm I would think

I agree.
I was thinking a STD at 11.
237. Ed22
Quoting 210. TimSoCal:



Looks like multiple vortices in an elongated CoC. Until that gets cleaned up, Ana it is not.
No way your wrong, wrong, wrong; this tropical system is gaining organization so I don't know why the conservativeness of the NHC so hard to classified this tropical system now because the disturbance has prove itself... NHC will continue to play games with mother-nature and mother-nature is going slap them their face...
Despite this winter's persistent frigid temperatures in the Great Lakes region, it's interesting to note that surface temps are both warmer than last year on the same date, and there's considerably less ice on the water. And given today's temperatures in the area--upper 70s and low 80s--as well as tomorrow's, which are expected to be even warmer, any lingering ice may not be long for the world.

06 MAY 2015


06 MAY 2014
Quoting 218. StormJunkie:

91 is doing its best to transition to purely tropical. Air mass is feeling and looking a lot more "tropical" in Charleston now. Hunters found a 2 degree warmer core earlier. And now the LLC may be consolidating near/under the new convection. Impressive for an early season storm. The fact it is parking itself near the Gulf Stream for the next two days will be a big part of whether it can complete the transition or not.

And if you believe your "eyes" in terms of the radar loops of the circulation, the pending LLC is actually drifting towards the SW now.

Quoting 210. TimSoCal:



Looks like multiple vortices in an elongated CoC. Until that gets cleaned up, Ana it is not.


Agreed on the dual vortices. Homegrown sub-tropicals being so rare, I forgot one of the characteristics (higher winds speeds on the periphery than the center, which Levi mentioned yesterday), the quasar-type
presentation, they just don't look right in general. STSs may be more prone to competing/switching out llc, too, I guess.
242. Ed22
Quoting 224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

90L/STS/XX/CX

As of now it sitting over the warm Gulf Stream flowing out from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid-Atlantic, so the strengthening tropical system is becoming more, more and more organized. LLC (Low Level Centre) is more distinct on this latest satellite imagery; continuation of this continues, it could become Tropical storm Ana by the latest 11pm tonight as what the conservative NHC said...
Quoting 235. CosmicEvents:


I agree.
I was thinking a STD at 11.


Per SHIPS data at 18z, this would go straight to STS Ana with 40 knot winds.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 46 48 48 46 43 40 37 33 33
V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 46 48 48 46 43 35 30 31 31
V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 48 51 53 52 51 43 34 38 42
aaahhhhh...
Dual lobes show well here..

Quoting 230. dabirds:

Also, technically, anything N of I-80 is Northern IL, not N Central, that's wabit (Peoria area) up to I-80.

Didn't quite make 85 forecast, but close enough. Pressure has dipped below 30", S-SW winds about same, dew pts up a little. Hope the limbs stay in my big oak & maple trees while I'm mowing, little breezier than I prefer, but w/ rain in forecast next four days, has to be done!


Didn't even make 70F here. Should(maybe) get a small rain event tomorrow, maybe a .25 of an inch..
Better get a Mowing Helmet....lol

Warmer temps at night? too Funny. todays high was 68.9F so this forecast was garbage.
Up north, we are finally being compensated for the awful winter we endured. Some issues with wildfires though.
Quoting 245. hydrus:
Dual lobes show well here..

I'd even be OK throwing the F-word around with this one. Wasn't Lee of 2011 sub-tropical? He F-worded, I actually have the graphic of it somewhere in MS IE.
I don't see any buoys south of the low. Want to know if the circulation is closing. Are there ship reports?
New blog about the upcoming tornado outbreak and 90L.... but mostly the tornadoes. :O)


Link
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

First taste of very warm and almost sultry mid summer weather Friday.

The warmest air so far of this year is being ushered into Southern and Eastern Ontario by southerly winds, boosting temperatures today into the mid to upper twenties across the region.

However temperatures will be several degrees higher on Friday. Under the strong may sunshine, temperatures on Friday afternoon will reach the upper twenties to low thirties in most areas, making it feel much more like mid summer. The first occurrence of 30 c or higher of the year is expected at many locales on Friday as a result.

Humidex values will reach the low to mid thirties Friday afternoon. This is below the threshold required for a heat warning.

Temperatures in areas along the shorelines of the still very chilly Great Lakes will be several degrees lower than the warmth to be experienced inland.

Temperatures Friday night will dip to the mid teens across the regions, providing some relief from the very warm daytime conditions.

The very warm conditions with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper twenties to the low thirties with humidex values in the mid thirties will continue through Saturday.

Latest conditions are now suggesting temperatures will remain considerably higher than average on Sunday, or mother's day, then into early next week, before considerably cooler air arrives by the middle of the week.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Quoting 248. wxgeek723:

Up north, we are finally being compensated for the awful winter we endured. Some issues with wildfires though.


I know, I am in Albany and I can not believe how nice it is, I am texting my parents in VA telling them how its warmer here than there

Also I think 90l is improving, with 40mph wind speeds I think it will get an upgrade at 11.
Since TS warnings would be issued could it be updated at 8?
Fresh Charleston Discussion

Excerpt:

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENT APPROACHING STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH SUGGESTS THE LOW IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
Quoting 237. Ed22:

No way your wrong, wrong, wrong; this tropical system is gaining organization so I don't know why the conservativeness of the NHC so hard to classified this tropical system now because the disturbance has prove itself... NHC will continue to play games with mother-nature and mother-nature is going slap them their face...
take a chillax by whats the rush could be august before we do it again
Quoting 253. Stormchaser2007:




Images like this justify my choice in being an atmospheric science major. Studying weather and cyclones is so interesting.


22:20:30Z 32.833N 79.933W 845.0 mb

(~ 24.96 inHg) 1,553 meters
(~ 5,095 feet) 1013.8 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg) - From 53° at 32 knots
(From the NE at ~ 36.8 mph) 11.6°C
(~ 52.9°F) 11.3°C
(~ 52.3°F) 33 knots
(~ 38.0 mph) - - - -

At 22:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 24 statue miles (38 km) to the WSW (243°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 22:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 4 statue miles (7 km) to the NE (46°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
T.C.F.A.
90L/STS/A/CX
we have a CDO small but its there to see as the sun dims
90L/PRE-Ana is ramping up the LLCOC is under a quick growing ball of convection and recon in on there way into it so far everything is good and by the looks of it we may have TS Ana
wonder if they might find 65-70MPH winds this time
I think they will find pressures somewhere between 1003mb and 999mb



22:30:30Z 32.533N 79.433W 845.0 mb

(~ 24.96 inHg) 1,538 meters
(~ 5,046 feet) 1012.0 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 45° at 42 knots
(From the NE at ~ 48.3 mph) 11.7°C*
(~ 53.1°F*) -* 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 34.2 knots (~ 39.3 mph)

Tropical Storm 81.4%

At 22:21:00Z (first observation), the observation was 5 statue miles (9 km) to the ENE (69°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 22:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 37 statue miles (59 km) to the ESE (119°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
2015 vs 1997



Just got home from work and turned on TWC. Norcross just showed the model tracks. Looks like in addition to meandering for 3 days, those models had landfall further SW into Charleston, as opposed to SC/NC border.
Charleston

Base Radial Velocity .50 elevation 124 nm range

Quoting 268. nash36:

Just got home from work and turned on TWC. Norcross just showed the model tracks. Looks like in addition to meandering for 3 days, those models had landfall further SW into Charleston, as opposed to SC/NC border.


Here you go Nash:

Quoting 267. Xandra:

2015 vs 1997




Looks impressive. maybe making up for the vacation it took.
ATL: 90L is slowly getting stronger but bursts in convection is occuring right now. It's window of opportunity is closing.
WPAC: Noul is a Cat 3 and will be struggling with dry sinking air to keep it in check and TD 07W is weak since it is moving in cooler waters.

Read the full post here
near shore coastal shot
T.C.F.A. 90L
sorry this is off-topic, but a cool website just updated after a month long hiatus and the graphic showing snow cover seems to be way off. Anyone else in the region showing white have absolutely no snow cover for many miles?
To add: Little surprising rain chances tomorrow are being kept around 20%. I guess they still really believe dry air is going to suck moisture out of the W side of the system.

Sure didn't do that today. Gonna settle in and look at WV. I have to believe pops will need to be raised, especially if this transitions to warm-core and wraps convection fully around the COC.
Quoting 272. meteorologistkidFL:

ATL: 90L is slowly getting stronger but bursts in convection is occuring right now. It's window of opportunity is closing.
WPAC: Noul is a Cat 3 and will be struggling with dry sinking air to keep it in check and TD 07W is weak since it is moving in cooler waters.

Read the full post here


It's stationary over the Gulf Stream with lessening shear?
Quoting 274. wartsttocs:

sorry this is off-topic, but a cool website just updated after a month long hiatus and the graphic showing snow cover seems to be way off. Anyone else in the region showing white have absolutely no snow cover for many miles?



here is ice I get ya snow in a minute

Quoting 272. meteorologistkidFL:

ATL: 90L is slowly getting stronger but bursts in convection is occuring right now. It's window of opportunity is closing.
WPAC: Noul is a Cat 3 and will be struggling with dry sinking air to keep it in check and TD 07W is weak since it is moving in cooler waters.

Read the full post here


what are you going on about
the window has just opened and will remain so for a few days
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 272. meteorologistkidFL:

ATL: 90L is slowly getting stronger but bursts in convection is occuring right now. It's window of opportunity is closing.
WPAC: Noul is a Cat 3 and will be struggling with dry sinking air to keep it in check and TD 07W is weak since it is moving in cooler waters.

Read the full post here


How is 90Ls window closing?

It is on the verge of being named and most forecasts do not have landfall for 3 days.
snow depth

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

90L is not particularly healthy, at least structurally; I thought it was in the clear earlier, but convection is becoming a real problem. Too pulse-like. Lots of dry air and some moderate shear as well. Frankly, it's probably a fitting prelude to what we'll see a lot this year. Nothing will come easy for disturbances in the Atlantic. Having said all that, I still think 90L will become Ana, possibly as soon as tonight, and in and of itself having something like this so early is impressive.

Quoting 276. FIUStormChaser:



It's stationary over the Gulf Stream with lessening shear?


And as Nash said, dry air. It will be interesting to see which way it plays out. Most models show it being about as strong as it is going to get. They seem to imply that dry air will win the battle. CHS NWS also made note of this.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT UPWARD SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MORE DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
WESTERN FLANKS...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION.


22:40:30Z 32.133N 79.033W 844.1 mb

(~ 24.93 inHg) 1,530 meters
(~ 5,020 feet) - - From 34° at 42 knots
(From the NNE/NE at ~ 48.3 mph) 11.3°C*
(~ 52.3°F*) -* 45 knots
(~ 51.8 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 40.1 knots (~ 46.2 mph)


Tropical Storm 95.6%


At 22:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 38 statue miles (61 km) to the ESE (120°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 22:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 72 statue miles (116 km) to the SE (129°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
recon reporting
nearing systems LLC


Quoting 279. GeoffreyWPB:




I think its gonna be stronger that what models show


272. meteorologistkidFL
10:40 PM GMT on May 07, 2015



But other than one discrepancy, I enjoyed your post and blog entry. If i may offer you any advice at all, you should perhaps create a section with links of radars and models, as that is what i used to do at your age before i entered my atmospheric science program.
Quoting 261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.A.
90L/STS/A/CX

Looks like it is pulling some energy from the frontal boundary. Ana will be stronger than anticipated..JMO
Quoting 284. MAweatherboy1:

90L is not particularly healthy, at least structurally; I thought it was in the clear earlier, but convection is becoming a real problem. Too pulse-like. Lots of dry air and some moderate shear as well. Frankly, it's probably a fitting prelude to what we'll see a lot this year. Nothing will come easy for disturbances in the Atlantic. Having said all that, I still think 90L will become Ana, possibly as soon as tonight, and in and of itself having something like this so early is impressive.




It's important to remember that this is a subtropical system. It is very common for subtropical cyclones to battle dry air as they transition from a baroclinic system to a more barotropic system. The fact the center has become better defined and deeper convection is becoming more persistent near the center is key. This system will not resemble the typical TC early on. Furthermore, dry air may be around throughout this system's lifetime. The intensification process will be slow, but if one compares how the system looks now to this time yesterday, it looks much better organized.
Recon already finding pressures sub-1007mb

Quoting 261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.A.
90L/STS/A/CX

A means Ana? So this means we got Ana?
Quoting 286. Patrap:



22:40:30Z 32.133N 79.033W 844.1 mb

(~ 24.93 inHg) 1,530 meters
(~ 5,020 feet) - - From 34° at 42 knots
(From the NNE/NE at ~ 48.3 mph) 11.3°C*
(~ 52.3°F*) -* 45 knots
(~ 51.8 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 40.1 knots (~ 46.2 mph)


Tropical Storm 95.6%


At 22:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 38 statue miles (61 km) to the ESE (120°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 22:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 72 statue miles (116 km) to the SE (129°) from Charleston, SC, USA.



TS ANA soon come
Quoting 291. Stormchaser2007:

Recon already finding pressures sub-1007mb




22:50:00Z 31.850N 78.583W
(~ 4,941 feet) 1007.2 mb
Quoting 292. HurricaneAndre:

A means Ana? So this means we got Ana?


well so far RECON agrees at 90+% Tropical Storm so just need official designation from NHC
Quoting 289. hydrus:

Looks like it is pulling some energy from the frontal boundary. Ana will be stronger than anticipated..JMO
we gonna see hydrus lets hope nothing to freaky
It will probably be Ana by 8 or 11 PM EST.
90l almost got its first fatalities luckily two sailboaters rescued. TWC
Quoting 297. Jwd41190:

It will probably be Ana by 8 or 11 PM EST.


agreed
Pressure down to 1004mb with lightning occurring near the center

No doubt that this is a subtropical storm. The NHC should begin advisories later tonight, although one could make a case that this should have been designated several hours ago.

RECON REPORTING
so far
Pressure 1004mb
Quoting 302. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No doubt that this is a subtropical storm. The NHC should begin advisories later tonight, although one could make a case that this should have been designated several hours ago.


I think NHC just wants to be sure before they throw up the flags
Ana is almost born lol
Quoting 301. Stormchaser2007:

Pressure down to 1004mb with lightning occurring near the center






1004.3mb
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 298. islander101010:

90l almost got its first fatalities luckily two sailboaters rescued. TWC


Yup....washed up against the north jetty just offshore outside Charleston Harbor....it was beyond any know definition of the word 'stupid' for them to have been out there...




23:10:30Z 31.433N 77.450W 845.3 mb

(~ 24.96 inHg) 1,473 meters
(~ 4,833 feet) 1003.3 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 220° at 5 knots
(From the SW at ~ 5.8 mph) 14.0°C
(~ 57.2°F) 13.5°C
(~ 56.3°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 0 knots*
(~ 0.0 mph*) 3 mm/hr*
(~ 0.12 in/hr*) - -

At 23:01:00Z (first observation), the observation was 145 statue miles (233 km) to the SE (127°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 23:10:30Z (last observation), the observation was 176 statue miles (283 km) to the ESE (122°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Quoting 310. presslord:

it was many years ago, but more than once we told folks not to go. They went anyway ( some laughing )..sadly they did not live..It was heart breaking.
RECON REPORTING
appears to have found LLCOC
pressures 1003.0mb
Quoting 313. wunderkidcayman:

RECON REPORTING
appears to have found LLCOC
pressures 1003.0mb
I suspect the pressure will drop faster now.
Quoting 312. hydrus:

it was many years ago, but more than once we told folks not to go. They went anyway ( some laughing )..sadly they did not live..It was heart breaking.


I helped another couple tie up here at the marina about an hour ago...had been southbound offshore all day...called it 'terrifying'....it's inexcusable...if you don't have access to weather info..you shouldn't be out there
Quoting 316. presslord:



I helped another couple tie up here at the marina about an hour ago...had been southbound offshore all day...called it 'terrifying'....it's inexcusable...if you don't have access to weather info..you shouldn't be out there
It is terrifying for people who know the water. Imagine how it is for those who are not aware what can happen. I have seen people literally ghost white after being rescued....I have been in 25 foot seas in 2 mile deep water..Needless to say, i was concerned.
318. ackee
Poll time what will the NHC upgrade 9OL to ?

A subtropical storm
B tropical Storm
C tropical depression
D subrotropical depression
I think 90L will be classified as 45-50mph TS Ana , rather than subtropical, looks more tropical to me , just saying
Quoting 313. wunderkidcayman:

RECON REPORTING
appears to have found LLCOC
pressures 1003.0mb

Says 1002.9 is lowest. IDK if that makes a difference though. :)

Time: 23:09:00Z
Coordinates: 31.417N 77.550W
Acft. Static Air Press: 844.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,478 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.1 mb (29.62 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 237° at 4 kts (From the WSW at 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 14.2°C (57.6°F)
Dew Pt: 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 kts (5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 1 kts* (1.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/h
Quoting 318. ackee:

Poll time what will the NHC upgrade 9OL to ?

A subtropical storm
B tropical Storm
C tropical depression
D subrotropical depression



A
Quoting 318. ackee:

Poll time what will the NHC upgrade 9OL to ?

A subtropical storm
B tropical Storm
C tropical depression
D subrotropical depression


The winds seem to strong for a depression, just saying though
URNT12 KNHC 072331
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL902015
A. 07/23:07:40Z
B. 31 deg 24 min N
077 deg 38 min W
C. 850 mb 1428 m
D. 45 kt
E. 297 deg 72 nm
F. 031 deg 45 kt
G. 297 deg 80 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 14 C / 1504 m
J. 15 C / 1505 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 02AAA INVEST OB 06
MAX FL WIND 45 KT 297 / 80 NM 22:41:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 272 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 05 KT
;
To think this might be the most exciting storm of the 2015 season... really hope the MDR warms up
Quoting 318. ackee:

Poll time what will the NHC upgrade 9OL to ?

A subtropical storm
B tropical Storm
C tropical depression
D subrotropical depression



well depression is out of the question

more likely tropical storm
now whether or not its Sub tropical or tropical is up to NHC

but from my personal and professional opinion I'd say tropical storm
its looking less and less sub tropical and more and more tropical every satellite frame

Quoting 319. stormpetrol:

I think 90L will be classified as 45-50mph TS Ana , rather than subtropical, looks more tropical to me , just saying


I think so to

it all just depends on how the system look at the same time the advisory comes out
Classification really doesn't mean much to me. What does is will it be able to mix out the dry air? If not, this will be nothing but Afflac flatulence.
RECON REPORTING
Have our first VORTEX MESSAGE for flight # 2 in 90L
Do you think they will issue an advisory at 8PM or 11PM?
Quoting 330. nash36:

Classification really doesn't mean much to me. What does is will it be able to mix out the dry air? If not, this will be nothing but Afflac flatulence.


Fortunately, most storms that form in early May are exactly that.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery



I believe an argument can be made for upgrading 90L to Subtropical Storm Ana. There appears to be a more dominant and closed LLC than on the last recon that's underneath some convection. Pressures appear to be dropping to.


Quoting 334. CybrTeddy:



Fortunately, most storms that form in early May are exactly that.


Very true. It's trying, though. If it can, forecasts for this area will have to change dramatically. Problem is, there is no way at this point to be certain. Just have to watch in real time and adjust accordingly.
Quoting 333. nygiants:

Do you think they will issue an advisory at 8PM or 11PM?
yes they will issue advisory at either 8pm or 11pm
if NHC is smart and know whats good for them they would do it at 8pm
Quoting 338. wunderkidcayman:

yes they will issue advisory at either 8pm or 11pm
if NHC is smart and know whats good for them they would do it at 8pm

Personally, I think they should at 8PM because obviously its a Sub or fully tropical storm already. I Think Fully Tropical Though
the STWO should be out in a few mins this should indicate to us whether or not we get official designation at 8 or 11pm
Not yet


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the area of low pressure located about 180 miles
south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border
continues to produce 40-45 mph winds mainly to the north and west
of the center. Satellite images show some increase in the
associated thunderstorm activity and if this trend continues, the
system would become a subtropical cyclone later tonight. The
low is expected to drift toward the north or north-northwest over
the next couple of days, and interests along the southeastern coast
of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States for the next few
days. For additional information, see products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system is scheduled for 2 AM EDT on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Pasch


yikes....
90%

we will see Ana at 11pm IMO
STWO upped to 90%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the area of low pressure located about 180 miles
south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border
continues to produce 40-45 mph winds mainly to the north and west
of the center. Satellite images show some increase in the
associated thunderstorm activity and if this trend continues, the
system would become a subtropical cyclone later tonight. The
low is expected to drift toward the north or north-northwest over
the next couple of days, and interests along the southeastern coast
of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States for the next few
days. For additional information, see products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system is scheduled for 2 AM EDT on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

by the looks of it no designation at 8pm likely will be at 11pm
designated as sub tropical I guess they will start it at subtropical the transition to tropical during the morning tomorrow or during the day tomorrow depending on how it looks
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With surveys ongoing across the central and southern Plains, the first significant tornado from yesterday, and the first EF3 tornado during 2015, has been confirmed.

NWS Norman has confirmed the afternoon Bridge Creek tornado was at least an EF2, the Norman tornado was at least an EF1, and last night's I-35 tornado was at least an EF2.

Segwick/Harvey Counties EF-3 Tornado




Seems as though there was an awful lot of hyping of the tornado near Norman as if it was a violent wedge tornado. As much as I get excited over severe weather, and would naturally want to hype an event, storm chasers and meteorologists need to remember they represent the voice of authority on these events, and hyping is destructive to people's trust.

Quoting 339. nygiants:


Personally, I think they should at 8PM because obviously its a Sub or fully tropical storm already. I Think Fully Tropical Though

agreed
I guess NHC wants to surprise people tomorrow morning

Quoting 345. Jedkins01:



Seems as though there was an awful lot of hyping of the tornado near Norman as if it was a violent wedge tornado. As much as I get excited over severe weather, and would naturally want to hype an event, storm chasers and meteorologists need to remember they represent the voice of authority on these events, and hyping is destructive to people's trust.




one of the news stations meteorologists kept saying it was a mile-wide F4 during the broadcast, which was very unprofessional.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 547 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 645 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 644 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 639 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 633 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 628 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 625 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 623 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 620 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 518 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 615 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 611 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 606 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 606 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 604 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
TORNADO WARNING     PUEBLO CO - KPUB 459 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
TORNADO WARNING     DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 559 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Quoting 346. wunderkidcayman:


agreed
I guess NHC wants to surprise people tomorrow morning




They will name it at 11pm. It is not going anywhere in the short term, so no harm in them waiting in this case
anyway I'll be back in about an hr or two to check on recon data etc
see y'all later
351. txjac
Removed
Quoting 349. Hurricanes101:



They will name it at 11pm. It is not going anywhere in the short terms, so no harm in them waiting in this case


actually yes there is
harm to those idiots who want to drown them self in the rip currents
better early than late
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)

If the National Hurricane Center decided to designate 90L later tonight as Sub-Tropical or Tropical Storm Ana, it would be a 45Kt Intensity. However the Hurricane Hunters haven't made a pass through the NE Quadrant which had some of the strongest winds earlier.
Quoting 185. SouthCentralTx:

Dang...




Well at least the Texas drought is becoming a thing of the past.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the area of low pressure located about 180 miles
south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border
continues to produce 40-45 mph winds mainly to the north and west
of the center. Satellite images show some increase in the
associated thunderstorm activity and if this trend continues, the
system would become a subtropical cyclone later tonight. The
low is expected to drift toward the north or north-northwest over
the next couple of days, and interests along the southeastern coast
of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States for the next few
days. For additional information, see products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system is scheduled for 2 AM EDT on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 352. wunderkidcayman:



actually yes there is
harm to those idiots who want to drown them self in the rip currents
better early than late


Maybe those idiots should get some common sense and not do it. There are already small craft and gale advisories out anyway. So if those idiots do not pay attention to those, what makes you think it is going to matter if this gets named?

Quoting 354. wunderkidcayman:


no no that is a seriously stupid question lolx1000
two completely different type of systems simple

ok I am really out be back later


351. txjac
11:54 PM GMT on May 07, 2015


Basically what he was alluding to, was the fact that the 998mb low over California is a Baroclinic Low, a Baroclinic Low is basically driven by changes and boundaries in temperature, while a Barotropic Low is a low pressure circulation aka a Tropical Cyclone which is driven by convection and Warm Water Temps. Barotropic Lows occur over the Tropical Oceans, while Barotropical Lows are your mid latitude tropical systems and extra tropical systems. In some cases, A Barotropic system can transition into a Baroclinic System and vice versa.

Baroclinic Low:


Barotropic Low:

351. txjac
11:54 PM GMT on May 07, 2015

It was not a stupid question. Do not let others make you think differently

This place is filled with people that have many different interests, but overall I think mostly people like the tropics over everything. Last night, most of the discussion involved the tornadoes in the plains because that warranted a lot of attention. Some just are not interested in certain things and several do not live out West. Generally people are most interested in weather that can impact them.

I can not speak for anyone else here, but that is my take on it
Quoting 347. nwobilderburg:



one of the news stations meteorologists kept saying it was a mile-wide F4 during the broadcast, which was very unprofessional.


If I was the superior, I would give him suspension. It's just irresponsible.
Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared


START: 0000Z Fri May 08 2015
END: 1200Z Sun May 10 2015

TYPE: Regional

WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, Southern Region, Central Region

REASON: Severe thunderstorms over the southern and central Plains on Friday and Saturday.



Quoting 327. wunderweatherman123:

To think this might be the most exciting storm of the 2015 season... really hope the MDR warms up
I doubt it with an El Niño rapidly forming. We might see 2 storms in the MDR and no more,So far 2013, 2014 have been horrible years for people that like TC.
351. txjac
11:54 PM GMT on May 07, 2015

Futhermore Baroclinic Lows can also have different pressures due to changes in elevation, thus one must correct pressure readings at high altitudes to match mean sea level surface pressure:

UK Marines come to mind...eh, wkc?

There is never a stupid question, ....

ever.


The answer to any question asked, is information gleaned to empower anothers thought.
Quoting 357. Hurricanes101:



Maybe those idiots should get some common sense and not do it. There are already small craft and gale advisories out anyway. So if those idiots do not pay attention to those, what makes you think it is going to matter if this gets named?




We have people who aren't the brightest stars in the Milky Way who attempt to swim in the aptly named Cape Fear river too, which is never safe.
Chasers are tracking a tornado southeast of Slidell, TX. Looks like maybe a faint debris signature.

Was confirmed the 4th death by Xanxere Tornado, Brazil (April 20th). It becomes the tornado in Xanxere, the deadliest tornado in the World on 2015.


Pre Ana...Charleston Harbor
Quoting 367. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Chasers are tracking a tornado southeast of Slidell, TX. Looks like maybe a faint debris signature.




nick Driesch has a large wegde tornado
The horses have reached the starting gate. AAAANNNNDDDD there off. the start of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.
Large, multi-vortex tornado live on The Weather Channel.
Quoting 369. presslord:



Pre Ana...Charleston Harbor


And.......we wait.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 072356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NEAR STATIONARY 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N77W AT 07/1800
UTC BASED ON THE INFORMATION FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE SW
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11
FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 30N TO 32N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA N OF 30N W OF 75W. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ANY
INCREASE WOULD RESULT IN FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS AN HIGH CHANCE OF SUBTROPICAL
FORMATION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Ok, so with this expected to hit SC, I'm just south of fayetteville nc that means I should expect a hit from the north and northeast areas of the storm over the weekend right?
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000ABNT20 KNHC 072345TWOAT 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL745 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraftindicate that the area of low pressure located about 180 milessouth-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina bordercontinues to produce 40-45 mph winds mainly to the north and westof the center.  Satellite images show some increase in theassociated thunderstorm activity and if this trend continues, thesystem would become a subtropical cyclone later tonight.  Thelow is expected to drift toward the north or north-northwest overthe next couple of days, and interests along the southeastern coastof the United States should continue to monitor the progress of thissystem.  Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected overportions of the coastal southeastern United States for the next fewdays.  For additional information, see products from your localNational Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecastsissued by the National Weather Service.  The next Special TropicalWeather Outlook on this system is scheduled for 2 AM EDT on Friday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service areavailable under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, andon the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml
$$Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 372. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Large, multi-vortex tornado live on The Weather Channel.


Pretty close to where I used to live. Lived just south of Denton in Lake Dallas. Spent most of my life in Dallas. Still have family in The Colony, Frisco and Lewisville. Scary sight.
Quoting 375. tropicalnewbee:

Ok, so with this expected to hit SC, I'm just south of fayetteville nc that means I should expect a hit from the north and northeast areas of the storm over the weekend right?


Honestly, even this late in the game, we really don't know what to expect. It could come ashore in Charleston, Myrte, or anywhere in between, and rain itself out. Or, it could stay offshore and move NNE. Still uncertain.
565  
WFUS54 KFWD 080039  
TORFWD  
TXC097-080115-  
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0029.150508T0039Z-150508T0115Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
739 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT  
 
* AT 739 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY.  
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 498 AND 503.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3394 9697 3395 9695 3362 9705 3365 9725  
3392 9722 3389 9718 3386 9717 3380 9721  
3376 9719 3374 9717 3372 9716 3373 9709  
3380 9710 3382 9705 3385 9709 3386 9706  
3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9700 3396 9698  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 197DEG 23KT 3365 9717  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
75  
 
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Main Text Page

I am probably in the minority, but I have no sympathy for people who put themselves in harms way by choice. I am a firm believer in evolution, the stupid people need to be weeded out. I know there are many here who embrace the nanny state......

Seems little doubt 90L will be designated by 11pm if not sooner......





Quoting 371. floridaT:

The horses have reached the starting gate. AAAANNNNDDDD there off. the start of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.



Not officially yet, but soon enough Bubs.
Recon is starting to reach the NE Quadrant of the Storm, will be interesting to see the winds off of the South and North Carolina Coast.

Very intense TVS. Yikes.
345  
WFUS54 KOUN 080041  
TOROUN  
OKC085-080115-  
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0045.150508T0041Z-150508T0115Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
741 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN LOVE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT  
 
* AT 741 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
MARIETTA AND THACKERVILLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR  
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A  
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3372 9715 3376 9719 3382 9720 3384 9717  
3389 9718 3392 9722 3394 9700 3394 9699  
3395 9695 3393 9699 3389 9698 3384 9703  
3384 9704 3386 9707 3385 9709 3382 9705  
3380 9709 3373 9709 3372 9712  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 195DEG 20KT 3366 9716  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
..SPEG.  
 
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Quoting 380. thelmores:

I am probably in the minority, but I have no sympathy for people who put themselves in harms way by choice. I am a firm believer in evolution, the stupid people need to be weeded out. I know there are many here who embrace the nanny state......

Seems little doubt 90L will be designated by 11pm if not sooner......







I've been a blue water sailor all my life....and there are a million ways to die out there...even on a good day....why you'd be out there today just baffles me....it ain't like this is a big surprise...we've known she's coming for a week...I suppose it's good to clean out the gene pool occasionally...
Quoting 383. FIUStormChaser:

Recon is starting to reach the NE Quadrant of the Storm, will be interesting to see the winds off of the South and North Carolina Coast.




It's not real breezy on Charleston Harbor at the moment...
Dominator 3 footage from a little while ago:

Link
Quoting 388. presslord:



It's not real breezy on Charleston Harbor at the moment...


Further Offshore:

Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Date: Thu, 07 May 2015 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20) at 29.1 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 11.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (49)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and rising
Air Temperature: 71.8 F
Dew Point: 66.9 F
Water Temperature: 72.7 F
If models continue to pull the turn track of Noul more to the NE, it could miss the Philippines for the most part. Currently moving at 10 knots. 350 miles from land.

Some people are just not smart when it comes to the water and the weather. There are those who think it just isn't going to affect them. It seems like every weekend when we have rip tide warnings people drown. You have small craft warnings and severe storm warning and some dummy goes out in a boat with six people and they capsize. The smart ones have a healthy fear of the weather and the water.
"I suppose it's good to clean out the gene pool occasionally..."

"the stupid people need to be weeded out"


It's one thing to think unkind thoughts, but to actually voice them...that's just bad karma.
Quoting 390. FIUStormChaser:




Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Date: Thu, 07 May 2015 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 11.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (49°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and rising
Air Temperature: 71.8 F
Dew Point: 66.9 F
Water Temperature: 72.7 F


Not sure where that buoy is....but I'd be surprised if we're getting 15 knots here
New tornadic circulation headed toward Bridgeport and Decatur:


Quoting 381. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not officially yet, but soon enough Bubs.
If we get a name Its started
Quoting 387. presslord:


I've been a blue water sailor all my life....and there are a million ways to die out there...even on a good day....why you'd be out there today just baffles me....it ain't like this is a big surprise...we've known she's coming for a week...I suppose it's good to clean out the gene pool occasionally...


I spent years in the Navy, on a guided missile cruiser (USS South Carolina), and have seen the fury of the sea first hand....... the power of the water and waves cannot be overstated. At every opportunity we avoided dangerous waters, only a fool would go in search of them.... especially in a small craft without the proper training and experience. These folks should be rescued, then arrested.... or flogged!

Quoting 392. zoomiami:

Some people are just not smart when it comes to the water and the weather. There are those who think it just isn't going to affect them. It seems like every weekend when we have rip tide warnings people drown. You have small craft warnings and severe storm warning and some dummy goes out in a boat with six people and the capsize. The smart ones have a healthy fear of the weather and the water.

Whether it's fear or respect for the power of nature and water, it's a good thing to have. I think a lot of people are ignorant of potential danger, and some just think bad things won't happen to them. It's something that happens to other people.



00:50:30Z 32.633N 76.600W 845.7 mb

(~ 24.98 inHg) 1,515 meters
(~ 4,970 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 136° at 31 knots
(From the SE at ~ 35.7 mph) 13.2°C
(~ 55.8°F) 13.2°C
(~ 55.8°F) 33 knots
(~ 38.0 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.6 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 34.8 knots (~ 40.0 mph)

Tropical Storm 112.1%

At 00:41:00Z (first observation), the observation was 120 statue miles (192 km) to the SSE (166°) from Morehead City, NC, USA.
At 00:50:30Z (last observation), the observation was 134 statue miles (215 km) to the SE (145°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
All Horry County (Myrtle Beach SC) Beaches are closed. People caught will be fined $250.
Quoting 393. LAbonbon:

"I suppose it's good to clean out the gene pool occasionally..."

"the stupid people need to be weeded out"


It's one thing to think unkind thoughts, but to actually voice them...that's just bad karma.


I respect your opinion...... too bad you can't respect mine. You do realize that somebody has to risk their life and
limb to perform these rescues, and many have lost their lives attempting rescue of idiots. Like I said, I don't just opine, I lived it! I stand by my opinion......
406  
WFUS54 KFWD 080059  
TORFWD  
TXC097-080130-  
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0031.150508T0059Z-150508T0130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
759 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT  
 
* AT 759 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANGER...MOVING NORTH AT  
10 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTH CENTRAL COOKE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...  
VALLEY VIEW.  
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 482 AND 492.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3342 9716 3342 9720 3343 9720 3342 9723  
3343 9736 3358 9734 3358 9709  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 201DEG 7KT 3348 9727  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
75  
 
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Quoting 388. presslord:



It's not real breezy on Charleston Harbor at the moment...


We'll see if that changes starting tomorrow.
Oklahoma City Just Smashed Its One Day Rainfall Record By Nearly 5 Inches

Before yesterday, the largest one calendar day rainfall total was 2.61 at the Will Rogers World Airport in Oklahoma City. The new record stands at more than 7 inches of rain.

Link
Quoting 397. thelmores:



I spent years in the Navy, on a guided missile cruiser (USS South Carolina), and have seen the fury of the sea first hand....... the power of the water and waves cannot be overstated. At every opportunity we avoided dangerous waters, only a fool would go in search of them.... especially in a small craft without the proper training and experience. These folks should be rescued, then arrested.... or flogged!




I've been through a couple pretty hairy storms on an LCU, it gets downright scary sometimes.
When it comes to saving lives, those who do it professionally will give you the same answer.

First rule of thumb.

You take your victim as is.

Always.
NW of Krum, Texas a little while ago:

By the looks of radar, I suspect convection is on the increase again near the center.

As many comments over the years about TWC and their problems our cable system "Verizon FIOS" switched to Accuweather for our weather source and I feel like I've been insulted. Besides no local feeds (coastal Delaware) we get inane forecasts that jump from Pittsburg to San Diego to just about anywhere. The severe weather of last night in the midwest was not mentioned. God forbid we ever get a real storm in our area. Either Verizon accept the TWC fees or the TWC lower their rates and compromise. We need this to stop.
Quoting 410. StormJunkie:

By the looks of radar, I suspect convection is on the increase again near the center.




It is. The issue is the waxing/waning. Can it sustain and wrap around the core? That's the key.


South Ashley River Bridge...Charleston. .water is lake flat..
DirecTV and TWC had their lil family split/spat over "fee's" and it was ugly, Ugly to the point many blogged for a solution.

Them Exec types really dont have a clue.

Been my Sperience .
Manhattan sees record rainfall for one day after storm brings flooding
More than 3 inches of rain at the Manhattan Airport

The National Weather Service in Topeka is reporting Manhattan has seen the most rainfall in more than 100 years after an evening storm passed through the city.

A post on social media from the center said an official observation recorded 2.97 inches at the Manhattan Airport around 7 p.m.

The previously daily rainfall record, according to the center, was set in 1908 after 2.91 inches was recorded in one day. ................................... Less than an hour later Shawn Byrne, a meteorologist with the service, said the Manhattan Airport reported 3.37 inches of rain.


Link
Quoting 413. nash36:



It is. The issue is the waxing/waning. Can it sustain and wrap around the core? That's the key.


Looks like 90L is finally splitting from the warm front to the NE....... I think the biggest factor is. .... does the mean center stay over the gulf stream, or does it approach the much cooler shelf waters........
Can you guys see if that tornado warning is for a tornado that is on the ground in Chico Tx or is the rotation still up in the air?? Thanks

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Tornado Warning for: West Central wise county in north central Texas.

Until 8:45 pm CDT.
At 8:14 pm CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bridgeport, moving east at 15 mph. Hazard, tornado and golf ball size hail. Source, radar indicated rotation. Impact: flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile Homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.
This dangerous storm will be near. Chico around 8:25 pm CDT. Bridgeport around 8:30 pm CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake Bridgeport and runaway Bay.
Quoting 406. ColoradoBob1:

Oklahoma City Just Smashed Its One Day Rainfall Record By Nearly 5 Inches

Before yesterday, the largest one calendar day rainfall total was 2.61 at the Will Rogers World Airport in Oklahoma City. The new record stands at more than 7 inches of rain.

Link



Dang, the 24 rainfall record here is 24 inches, can't imagine beating it by more than 4 inches.

Not surprised they had a flash flood emergency, 7 inches in 1 day is no joke.
Quoting 417. thelmores:



Looks like 90L is finally splitting from the warm front to the NE....... I think the biggest factor is. .... does the mean center stay over the gulf stream, or does it approach the much cooler shelf waters........


Good to see ya thel, as always. It should slowly pull closer and cross the GS waters. Whether that is enough for it to build a core and keep the dry air out, I do not know.

Quoting 409. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NW of Krum, Texas a little while ago:




Looks wedge-ish which typically means at least a strong tornado.
Wise Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Tornado Warning
Statement as of 8:14 PM CDT on May 07, 2015

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
west central Wise County in north central Texas...

* until 845 PM CDT

* at 814 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Bridgeport... moving east at 15 mph.

Hazard... tornado and Golf Ball size hail.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Chico around 825 PM CDT.
Bridgeport around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake
Bridgeport and Runaway Bay.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors... in a
Mobile home... or in a vehicle... move to the closest substantial
shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3311 9774 3313 9792 3328 9792 3331 9772
time... Mot... loc 0114z 261deg 14kt 3323 9784

Tornado... radar indicated
hail... 1.75in
Quoting 420. StormJunkie:



Good to see ya thel, as always. It should slowly pull closer and cross the GS waters. Whether that is enough for it to build a core and keep the dry air out, I do not know.




Yes sir. The main player is the dry air intrusion. Which one wins? That's what makes these systems frustrating, yet fun. We know what should happen, but they don't always follow script.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
909 PM EDT Thursday may 7 2015

..low pressure becoming better organized off the South Carolina
coast...

Synopsis...
low pressure will linger off the South Carolina coast tonight
through Saturday before slowly drifting toward the coast on
Sunday. The low will lift northeast through eastern North Carolina
on Monday. A weak cold front may push through the region by the
middle of next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
preliminary observations from reconnaissance aircraft
investigating low pressure off the South Coast coast indicates the
system is slowly becoming better organized. Deep convection has
developed and maintained itself against the normal diurnal cycle
which indicates that dry air entraining into the southern and
southeast semicircles has mixed out...at least temporarily. This
may be due to increasing influences from the considerably warmer
waters of the Gulf Stream. Coordination with the National
Hurricane Center is ongoing this evening and if the system
continues to organize the system will most likely be identified as
subtropical or tropical later this evening. A tropical storm watch
and/or warning may be needed for portions of the South Carolina
coast later this evening or overnight.

For the late evening update...the large feeder band that has
progressed across the entire forecast area today is poised to
move south of the Altamaha river shortly. High resolution models
suggest little in the way of shower activity will occur for much
of the night before another feeder band currently taking shape
over the Gulf Stream /per kclx radar data/ approaches the
Charleston County coast. Probability of precipitation increasing to 50-60 percent for
Charleston and eastern Berkeley counties late look on track with
10-30 percent probability of precipitation elsewhere. Temperatures east of I-95 will not
waiver too much overnight with as much as 30-35 knots of wind noted
at 0.5 km on the esrl wind profiler at the kjzi Airport. This
trend is captured well by the latest h3r and rap output. Farther
inland...temperatures will slowly drop with lows area wide ranging
from the upper 50s/near 60s far interior southeast Georgia to the
middle 60s at the coast.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
the latest guidance is in relatively good agreement that the low
pressure system off the SC coast will move very little Friday and
Friday night before drifting slowly west-northwest Saturday and
Saturday night. The 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS are quite similar though the
European model (ecmwf) is a tad slower with the system approaching the coastline late
Saturday night. For the Friday through Sunday period...the weather
will vary significantly between southeast Georgia and southern South
Carolina. The primary cloud shield will remain over South Carolina
while waves of rain push into our far eastern zones from off the
Atlantic. Meanwhile...partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail over
much of southeast Georgia.

Temperatures over eastern areas including the tri-County will be
limited to the middle 70s on Friday while southeast Georgia warms
into the low to middle 80s. Temperatures will gradually shift upward Saturday
into Sunday as the low weakens and more dry air wraps around the
western flanks...allowing for more insolation. Temperatures will solidly be
in the 80s Saturday and Sunday.
163  
WFUS55 KLKN 080131  
TORLKN  
NVC011-015-080215-  
/O.NEW.KLKN.TO.W.0001.150508T0131Z-150508T0215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
631 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ELKO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN EUREKA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...  
EAST CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM PDT  
 
* AT 630 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9  
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRASS VALLEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GRASS VALLEY AROUND 655 PM PDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED  
FOR THE SAME AREA. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM.  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE  
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3972 11655 3969 11678 3997 11691 4002 11656  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 169DEG 15KT 3978 11669  
 
 
 
BB  
 
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Got done with finals today so i am now a senior in college! :D
And there it is.... At least temporarily. Dry air is beginning to mix out. It's an entirely whole new ballgame if it can fight off the dry air.
Quoting 427. TimTheWxMan:

Got done with finals today so i am now a senior in college! :D

Congrats, Tim :)
AL, 90, 2015050800, , BEST, 0, 314N, 776W, 40, 1004, SS, 34, NEQ, 140, 0, 80, 120, 1014, 160, 80, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
The atcf file shows 90L as a subtropical storm. Now we see if the NHC means it.
Quoting 420. StormJunkie:



Good to see ya thel, as always. It should slowly pull closer and cross the GS waters. Whether that is enough for it to build a core and keep the dry air out, I do not know.




Good to see you as well John...... looks like you better get your John boat ready! Lol
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Quoting 429. LAbonbon:


Congrats, Tim :)




Thanks bonnie. :)
Quoting 427. TimTheWxMan:

Got done with finals today so i am now a senior in college! :D


Congrats !!!!!!!!
We have a ATCF designator change from INVEST to SS or Subtropical Storm
Say hello to Ana

AL, 90, 2015050800, , BEST, 0, 314N, 776W, 40, 1004, SS
Currently it is sitting just off the right side of the Gulf Stream around 71.25. If it manages to slide left 25 miles or so, the center will be over the main heat content of the GS.

That's a very nasty line of storms.

439. txjac
Quoting 438. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a very nasty line of storms.




Going right over my son ...he's in Ranger at the moment

Edit ..should have said "went"
440. 7544
looks like pre anna wants to dip south tonight ?
Probably>>>>>> BAMD or even more south.
Quoting 427. TimTheWxMan:

Got done with finals today so i am now a senior in college! :D


Good for you I remember my last day of university I was finally over with "school" and though I would be well on my way taking shortcuts to white collar jobs but some things just end up not working out

Well if things don't work out for Ya join the military and do your country proud ;) may I suggest joining USAF Reserves 53rd WxRecon ;)
If anyone wants to follow local news coverage, here's a link, not sure if one was posted earlier or not...

LIVE TV STREAM - KDFW FOX NEWS 4 DALLAS FORT WORTH
Quoting 437. StormJunkie:

Currently it is sitting just off the right side of the Gulf Stream around 71.25. If it manages to slide left 25 miles or so, the center will be over the main heat content of the GS.




And with the replenishment of the warm gulf waters, if it spins there for a day or two, things could really get interesting!
Is the circulation consolidating a bit further south?

The strongest vorticity according to what Chicklit is showing looks further south
Dallas Fort Worth in the line of fire
Quoting 406. ColoradoBob1:

Oklahoma City Just Smashed Its One Day Rainfall Record By Nearly 5 Inches

Before yesterday, the largest one calendar day rainfall total was 2.61 at the Will Rogers World Airport in Oklahoma City. The new record stands at more than 7 inches of rain.

Link


This article states that it isn't even an all-time record, let alone beating the old all-time record by 5" (it's probably just a daily record):

Link
Special message from NHC:

NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT.
Quoting 437. StormJunkie:

Currently it is sitting just off the right side of the Gulf Stream around 71.25. If it manages to slide left 25 miles or so, the center will be over the main heat content of the GS.




Sooner or later, it will (according to most of the models) slide W or WSW. We'll see if it can take advantage.
Forms the Subtropical Storm Ana.
Quoting 449. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Special message from NHC:

NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT.


If it quacks, has Web feet, it must be........ should have already been designated IMHO.
Quoting 450. nash36:



Sooner or later, it will (according to most of the models) slide W or WSW. We'll see if it can take advantage.


I am curious about this high pressure though. I wonder if this slides further south than currently forecast
Quoting 449. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Special message from NHC:

NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT.


Will be a little strange if SJ and I are under TS warnings right off the rip. I've personally been through the near-miss with Charley, then got hammered with Frances and Jeanne. I've never gone from nothing to a warning. But, I know this happens from time to time.
Quoting 454. nash36:



Will be a little strange if SJ and I are under TS warnings right off the rip. I've personally been through the near-miss with Charley, then got hammered with Frances and Jeanne. I've never gone from nothing to a warning. But, I know this happens from time to time.


What about Gaston?
I think this Hurricane Season might just be more active than predicted, jmo
Man, if this keeps up I'll never again see the blog agonize until August for the A storm.

Oh well. Until next year ;)
Quoting 454. nash36:



Will be a little strange if SJ and I are under TS warnings right off the rip. I've personally been through the near-miss with Charley, then got hammered with Frances and Jeanne. I've never gone from nothing to a warning. But, I know this happens from time to time.


TS warnings will certainly go up. How would you feel about a Hurricane watch? Lol
With the gulf stream involved, and shear relaxing, its not out of the question.
Quoting 456. wxgeek723:



What about Gaston?


Hey Wx. I meant me personally. I've only been in the Charleston area since summer of 2009.
Quoting 459. thelmores:



TS warnings will certainly go up. How would you feel about a Hurricane watch? Lol
With the gulf stream involved, and shear relaxing, its not out of the question.


Eh.... Idk Thel. Not that excited about this ramping up to hurricane strength. The GS is warm, yes, but not exactly jet fuel. Also, it has a lot to overcome, SST's notwithstanding, to even have a chance at that.

My guess?? If conditions are just right and it can continue to mix out the dry air intrusion, 60mph TS.
You people better have used today to get ready for this no name storm...with global warming the way it is...we are going to see killer storms like we did back in 2004-2005
Hunker down at the end of the day and try not to mis speak!
Quoting 438. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a very nasty line of storms.




similar looking line of storms traveled a path about 100 miles south about a week ago
awesome

Surf must be up at Folly Beach, east of Charleston, where my nephew is a local surfing celebrity.


Well this guy happened in May, then nothin till August..
Quoting 461. nash36:



Eh.... Idk Thel. Not that excited about this ramping up to hurricane strength. The GS is warm, yes, but not exactly jet fuel. Also, it has a lot to overcome, SST's notwithstanding, to even have a chance at that.

My guess?? If conditions are just right and it can continue to mix out the dry air intrusion, 60mph TS.


Agreed..... there will be no significant intensification unless Ana becomes fully tropical, closes off a LLC, and mixes out the remaining dry air....... could be a race of sorts. Almost certainly fizzles as it approaches the coast and cool shelf waters. But there may be a window for some significant intensification.


huge amounts of rainfall in the past month in Oklahoma
Quoting 461. nash36:



Eh.... Idk Thel. Not that excited about this ramping up to hurricane strength. The GS is warm, yes, but not exactly jet fuel. Also, it has a lot to overcome, SST's notwithstanding, to even have a chance at that.

My guess?? If conditions are just right and it can continue to mix out the dry air intrusion, 60mph TS.


A very reasonable guess. It's got a day or two left over the Gulf Stream before the ridge moves it towards South Carolina, at that point cooler SSTs will help weaken the system. I'd put Ana's odds at becoming a hurricane being very, very small.
Quoting 462. wilburo33:

You people better have used today to get ready for this no name storm...with global warming the way it is...we are going to see killer storms like we did back in 2004-2005
Hunker down at the end of the day and try no to mis speak!


With all due respect..... hogwash! Lol
470. beell



SST anomaly
what a coincidence
Quoting 457. stormpetrol:

I think this Hurricane Season might just be more active than predicted, jmo


Agreed

Anyway
NHC UPDATE:
ALERT ALERT ALERT
NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT.
473. 7544
Quoting 453. Hurricanes101:



I am curious about this high pressure though. I wonder if this slides further south than currently forecast


seems to be doing it now and thats no wobble

Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory
Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   

U.S. Watch/Warning  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 77.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM) FROM THE
CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ANA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


From the discussion, thought this was pretty cool:
"We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season."
NHC thinks it's likely Ana will transition into a purely tropical cyclone sometime soon.
Quoting 475. cg2916:

From the discussion, thought this was pretty cool:
"We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season."


Nice kudos to those men and women who do an outstanding job!
Yes - we have Ana
batten down and we shall see
We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Aw this is nice.
All I can say is it's a good thing this isn't August or September, with this synoptic setup. If it were, we'd most likely be evacuating. Charleston does not need another Hugo......Ever.
What it is, is a gig against those who would willfully defund and deny Science funding ,from NOAA to NASA.

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said in a statement that the budget "guts our Earth science program and threatens to set back generations worth of progress in better understanding our changing climate, and our ability to prepare for and respond to earthquakes, droughts, and storm events."

"NASA leads the world in the exploration of and study of planets, and none is more important than the one on which we live," Bolden said.


"...south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern..."

Dont they mean..

*insert captain trough save the US clip art thing..*
Bi-lobes around a mean CoC, denotes a sub tropical storm in Balance, possibly transitioning to Warm core as the SSTs are there.

485. beell
Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion

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U.S. Watch/Warning

000
WTNT41 KNHC 080233
TCDAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

Satellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection this
evening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast
is now being designated as a subtropical storm. Based on adjusted
SFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has been
investigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40
kt. Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximum
winds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi it
is still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cyclone
at this time. Since there has been more deep convection occurring
near the center over the past several hours, it is becoming more
likely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical storm
within the next day or so. The storm should remain situated near or
over the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow for
some slight strengthening. Later in the period, as the cyclone
approaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence of
cooler shelf waters.

The system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and the
initial motion estimate is 350/2. Ana is likely to remain located
to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the
next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down
over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the
southeastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the system
should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus.

We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Note that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 31.5N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Very recent GPM pass...10:21pm Still a long way to go if Ana wants to be truly tropical at any point.

Quoting 487. StormJunkie:

Very recent GPM pass...10:21pm Still a long way to go if Ana wants to be truly tropical at any point.




Exactly. Effects will still be the same, though.
Quoting 464. Chicklit:

awesome

Surf must be up at Folly Beach, east of Charleston, where my nephew is a local surfing celebrity.


Nice Chick. He will enjoy this for sure, but I'm not sure it's the best fetch. Typically they like to see them a little stronger and a hair further offshore to the S. Although with the mild winds; it being closer to shore may be a good thing.

I lived on Folly until I was 4. Family ties go back a long way there.
I need to preface this with the fact that the NWS does an outstanding job combing through data, and keeping people as informed as possible.

Having said that, lesson learned: Just yesterday, our local NWS had this sliding well offshore from us, and had Ana dry as a bone on the WRN periphery.

Just goes to show you how fast synoptics can change.
Quoting 488. nash36:



Exactly. Effects will still be the same, though.


Not sure Nash, I think I'm with thel on this one. If it doesn't transition, then there may be a few squally points, but the dry air will snuff it out for the most part. If it can manage the transition though, then I would expect a relatively windy rainy event.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
WV is showing the battle between the dry air and Ana. For now, she is winning. Really digging into that slot and driving it SWD.
Lived in Charleston since 2006 been close calls over last few years....good link to surf cam at the Tides hotel on Folly Beach..good shot during daytime

http://www.surfchex.com/follybeach-web-cam.php
Amazing some of the models predicted Ana almost 10 days ago.....
Quoting 484. Patrap:
Bi-lobes around a mean CoC, denotes a sub tropical storm in Balance, possibly transitioning to Warm core as the SSTs are there.

Maybe we'll see the ice-skater effect as the outer bands dissipate, spinning the core up quick and tight...
Ana's track does go all the way up the coast. Fascinating way to start this early season with an STS,
instead of some limp-dreck wobbling at 39.5 mph to the TX/MX border.
A ways away from us. Did get pretty windy around here, with some interesting low clouds. No rotation or pressure changes popping my eardrums though. And nice rain, icing on the cake we had a couple weeks ago. My housemate says the weather's looking more and more like Arizona where he grew up, these days.


Quoting 426. Patrap:

163  
WFUS55 KLKN 080131  
TORLKN  
NVC011-015-080215-  
/O.NEW.KLKN.TO.W.0001.150508T0131Z-150508T0215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
631 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ELKO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN EUREKA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...  
EAST CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM PDT  
 
* AT 630 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9  
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRASS VALLEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GRASS VALLEY AROUND 655 PM PDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED  
FOR THE SAME AREA. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM.  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE  
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3972 11655 3969 11678 3997 11691 4002 11656  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 169DEG 15KT 3978 11669  
 
 
 
BB  
 
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