WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It remains too early to tell where the turn to the north may occur and how strong this system could eventually be. The SHIPS Intensity model takes this system to a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane, which is disturbing if this system was to pass close to the US Coast. Remember, Ike was only a Cat. 2, and look what it did.
A category two storm in the northeast is similar a category four storm on the Gulf Coast for two reasons: one, the storm begins to accelerate; as the background flow increases, so does the wind on the eastern semi-circle of the storm (a perfect exapmle was the fast-tracked "Long Island Express"). Also, because of such a large area of dense and wealthy population, the economic/financial damages would be very high. I forget where I read it, so it probably bears very little relevance, but I heard somewhere that a strong category two hurricane making landfall on Long Island would cause similar monetary (financial) damage as Hurricane Katrina. This does NOT mean the storm would be as devastating, completely wiping out whole areas of coastline and destroying towns, but because the damage is occurring in an area with higher population, there's more for it to damage, so the cost of damage goes up. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's why a CAT 2 here might end up seeming like a CAT 4. The storm's acceleration also leads to higher storm surge, and less warning time meaning less preparation and more damage...it's all connected.
Quoting StormW:


It means downward vertical velocity...sinking air. Has a tendency to make it hard for tropical systems to develop. Dries out the atmosphere. As air sinks, it warms 5.5F for every 1,000 ft. The warming of the air doesn't allow for clouds to build.

How did you do that without saying dry adiabat? I am incapable of describing it without.
Quoting StormW:


Thank you!


Something seems fishy about that person. I would like some kind of proof before I believe that is actually Phil Ferro...He seems to kind of brag that he's a chief meteorologist.
Quoting CaneAddict:


Something seems fishy about that person. I would like some kind of proof before I believe that is actually Phil Ferro...He seems to kind of brag that he's a chief meteorologist.
I agree.
Hi Trini !
Quoting gordydunnot:
Phil Ferro busted.


Really? I thought he was the "chief meteorologist for Miami".
Quoting TampaSpin:
StormW which kind of toliet paper do you perfer for us to put in our Hurricane kits...Is one better than the other....


LOL...Have to go with Charmin, extra soft.
who is claiming to be Phil?
Quoting tiggeriffic:
who is claiming to be Phil?


Phil is claiming to be Phil. Don't you just love the internet?
Quoting StormW:


Thank you!
It seems as though "Phil" is interested in becoming a participant in this blog. If he is good at his chosen profession, he should be able to keep us on our toes! If he is trtying to learn from this blog, it is good and he will become better at his chosen profession. Either way - he will probably be better able to serve his public if he continues to querry the best on this blog like you. I have noticed many seem to Pooh!Pooh! the TV personalities on this blog, but never you. Good for you!
So leave by Wednesday or wait till sunday or so then...
515. 900MB
Quoting Weathermandan:
A category two storm in the northeast is similar a category four storm on the Gulf Coast for two reasons: one, the storm begins to accelerate; as the background flow increases, so does the wind on the eastern semi-circle of the storm (a perfect exapmle was the fast-tracked "Long Island Express"). Also, because of such a large area of dense and wealthy population, the economic/financial damages would be very high. I forget where I read it, so it probably bears very little relevance, but I heard somewhere that a strong category two hurricane making landfall on Long Island would cause similar monetary (financial) damage as Hurricane Katrina. This does NOT mean the storm would be as devastating, completely wiping out whole areas of coastline and destroying towns, but because the damage is occurring in an area with higher population, there's more for it to damage, so the cost of damage goes up. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's why a CAT 2 here might end up seeming like a CAT 4. The storm's acceleration also leads to higher storm surge, and less warning time meaning less preparation and more damage...it's all connected.


I hate to even think of the L.I. Express which was a CV storm and one of the most devastating ever.

Out on Long Island we've had 3 gypsy moth infestations in the last 10 years. We have millions of weak oak, maple, etc.. That's one thing that really scares me. So does lack of prep and population density. A moderate Cat 2, would be worse than a cat 4 down in the GOM, economically for sure, physical damage could be close.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
who is claiming to be Phil?


"Phil Ferro's" Blog....
Quoting JupiterFL:


Phil is claiming to be Phil. Don't you just love the internet?


What makes you so sure this is Phil Ferro?
522. 900MB
:)
Many mets do frequent the blog in lurk mode I spoke to my local met in Orlando and he does read Dr.M's blog so it not that unreasonable to believe that a met has a blog on here.
Valve Problem Scrubs Launch Try
A problem with a fill-and-drain valve inside the shuttle's aft compartment has scrubbed the Wednesday launch. The launch team has not yet set a new launch date and time.
Quoting JupiterFL:


because he said so..
I was trying to be sarcastic.
Whiff....


Oh alright...LOL.
529. bwat
Quoting CaneAddict:


What makes you so sure this is Phil Ferro?

since phil is his screen name and the only name we know him by, you have no other choice than to say phil is claiming to be phil. Confusing I know, but I get what he was saying.
Quoting PortABeachBum:
It seems as though "Phil" is interested in becoming a participant in this blog. If he is good at his chosen profession, he should be able to keep us on our toes! If he is trtying to learn from this blog, it is good and he will become better at his chosen profession. Either way - he will probably be better able to serve his public if he continues to querry the best on this blog like you. I have noticed many seem to Pooh!Pooh! the TV personalities on this blog, but never you. Good for you!
If it is the real Phil Ferro his bio sounds pretty good.
Hey StormW, is that flare up in the SW GOM anything to watch?
ok...comparing a cat 2 in the upper NE US and a cat 4 in the GOM...honestly...as far as structure goes...they are neck and neck...as far as economic hardship...let's face it...it depends on exactly where it hits...Katrina...very few had insurance...so major econimic hardship occurred...if a cat 2 hit and the worst damage was in an affluent community...then the economic hardship just went down...it isn't just the size and strength of the storm...another factor is in the NE USA the storms are moving thru at a good clip...meaning they don't last as long which can lessen damage in the long run...an extra 3, 5, 7 hours from a snail mover in the gulf or SE USA compared to a freight train...been thru canes...before the codes changed the first time with HUGO...been thru em since then...still would rather hunker down thru a cat 2 up north than EVER go thru another HUGO!
With this storm being so close, a lot of people aren't aware of it. Other than a minor blurb on the news its not being covered. The fact is, IF 92L turns out to be something bigger than a few gusty t-storms, we won't know much in advance, and people won't have much, if any, time to evacuate if need be. For the OBX there are only two ways off the island- high rise bridge with easily flooded roads (HWY 12) or the ferries- which close down well before the storm arrives. OBX hasn't had a 'cane since Isabel, and Eastern NC's last 'big one' was Floyd (which is as bad as any 'F-word' you can say around here!).
Hey 900mb,you need to hang out with reed dude.
Link

It certainly appears as if a LLC (low-level circulation) is trying to develop. Also, there area some very strong northerly upper-level winds just west of where it appears a center is trying to form. Could this in essence push the developing clusters of storms to the north BACK over the center? Or does that kinda not happenn...lol..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

What a plume over houston.
Quoting HopquickSteve:


Please don't. How to say this tactfully? ... In a powerless posthurricane situation, humidity is way up with no A/C. Wiping one's tush with the soft stuff often frays and gets nasty. It was just bad all around. But of course, that's if you can use your plumbing and it's not backing up the sewer in your house. :) Any other opinions from survivors?
\

One thing you can be sure of: No store will have any toliet paper after a storm!! Just like after a big football game and the kids go wild in front of friends houses! Advice: fill bathtub with water and use bucket or just have a 5 gallon bucket to get water from that black pool outside. It flow is a problem, might have to wait for the sun to dry out yard. So it really doesn't matter what brand you use......as long as you have plenty!!

Brief Evening Blog Update:
Very Brief Blog Update
If you make sure the pool is clean BEFORE the storm, said pool can also be a mighty fine place for a bath while out of power for 12 days... and also water the neighbors cows :)
546. ackee
since 92L has gale force winds any chance if it does not get closed centre we see gale warning go in effect
Quoting zingocat:
\

One thing you can be sure of: No store will have any toliet paper after a storm!! Just like after a big football game and the kids go wild in front of friends houses! Advice: fill bathtub with water and use bucket or just have a 5 gallon bucket to get water from that black pool outside. It flow is a problem, might have to wait for the sun to dry out yard. So it really doesn't matter what brand you use......as long as you have plenty!!



If you recycle your newspapers, it is best to keep a few issues in a dry place....
495. HopquickSteveAhhh. Thanks.

And Thanks also to Weathermandan and Tigger
just took a peek at the cmc model...funny thing is it started out being one of the ones closest to the east coast...moved out a bit and now is right back sweeping the coastline again...
Ok, I have say it.. this conversation is rapidly going down the toilet.. maybe it will be flushed by the next page.
The wind blows dirt in any pool. Never seen a clean one after storm, only black. No matter how clean before. Horses like it especially with no electric fence to keep them in!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Valve Problem Scrubs Launch Try
A problem with a fill-and-drain valve inside the shuttle's aft compartment has scrubbed the Wednesday launch. The launch team has not yet set a new launch date and time.

Launch Team Targets Aug. 28 Launch

NASA is targeting space shuttle Discovery for a launch attempt Friday morning at 12:22 a.m., mission management team Chairman Mike Moses said. Engineers will evaluate a liquid hydrogen valve that developed problems during tanking operations Tuesday evening. Detailed test data about the valve will be examined before Discovery’s fuel tank is loaded with propellant ahead of Friday morning’s launch attempt.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
just took a peek at the cmc model...funny thing is it started out being one of the ones closest to the east coast...moved out a bit and now is right back sweeping the coastline again...


This one isn't pretty at all... 3 of them at the end

cmc 2009082512 Forecast slp Java Animation
Quoting zingocat:
The wind blows dirt in any pool. Never seen a clean one after storm, only black. No matter how clean before. Horses like it especially with no electric fence to keep them in!


Shingles and roofing nails in the pool even after a strong cat 1.
try going to places like krispy kreme and dunkin donuts...get the empty buckets they get their donut filling in...take em home, wash em out and fill em up...put the lids on...they sit low to the ground and filled with water weigh about 40 lbs or so...they don't tip over...line em up against a wall of your house and you have mountains of water...as u use one for washing in....use that water to pour down your toilet to flush it...etc.
your welcome but thank you for what? LOL...i must a missed somethin here...lol
561. 900MB
I'm gonna hit the sack!
The 3 things that scare me most going to sleep are:
1- This thing is starting way West, so East Coast in jeopardy if this does anything.
2- 60mph winds and it's not even organized.
3- lack of prep and lack of notice.
Sleep tight y'all.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I have say it.. this conversation is rapidly going down the toilet.. maybe it will be flushed by the next page.
there's been a lot of flushing for awhile now
Oh GEE, thanks a bunch ORCA!!!!
Quoting tiggeriffic:
your welcome but thank you for what? LOL...i must a missed somethin here...lol
Someone had said a Cat2 along the east coast could be comparable to a Cat4 in the gulf. I had asked why.

So you contributed to the discussion. Thanks!!

If Phil Ferro is on this blog it is exciting. He is good at his job. If he is a fake than he will be exposed soon enough. I say welcome Phil!
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Oh GEE, thanks a bunch ORCA!!!!


What did I do this time?
All I did was show you the models :)
Good night! Check in on the tropics in the early morning....ugh!
AHA...k...it was just my been there done that opinion but will give that as well... :)
Unless people are totally not paying attention to T.V, radio or this blog...no one is going to be caught by surprise by what 92 does.
Once an LLC forms, there will be some surprised people. I imagine if one does form soon enough, the Southern Bahamas would get a TS warning. There is some rotation apparent on satellite, but it is likely mid level.
Sorry about continuing the TP conversation, but there are those practical things that you take for granted. Oh, and, STERNO rocks!
I was looking at a still pic...you showed me a animated model... :P

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/09082512/64.html

is what i was looking at....
Hehe... well in my opinion, once this disturbance starts moving... specially with the help of a trough to transfer some energy into it, it will move fast enough that you won't know what hit you.
DONT FORGET THE BABY WIPES! Good for the pertainant parts and the pits...let's face it...those are what cause the stink...
Quoting tiggeriffic:
I was looking at a still pic...you showed me a animated model... :P

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/09082512/64.html

is what i was looking at....



I like the animated ones.. adds a little life to it :)


Did you like the closing credits... THREE systems.
Evening.

My opinion...T.S watches/warnings for the Bahamas tomorrow.
578. jpsb
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Someone had said a Cat2 along the east coast could be comparable to a Cat4 in the gulf. I had asked why.BR


Who ever said that does not know what they are talking about. I've done hurricanes in Long Island (Sands Point) and hurricanes on the Texas Gulf Coast (Galveston Bay). Hurricanes are MUCH worse here in Texas, no comparison. MUCH WORSE. I'll take a cat 2 on Long Island over a (big) cat 4 in Texas anyday.
I shut my eyes...
the new stuff it up...weird one this 92L... they still have it as 92L but winds at 45mph
580. bwat
L8r yall, gotta hit the hay. I'll check back in to see what 92L looks like in about 6 hours. Should of been a met, then I'd be getting paid for this!
Quoting tiggeriffic:
DONT FORGET THE BABY WIPES! Good for the pertainant parts and the pits...let's face it...those are what cause the stink...


I love it that people are willing to share tips like this on here. :-)
Vorticity


No prob OceanMoan
OceanMoan...check out post 558...another good one... :)
hiya all!
92L lurking, threatening, maybe...and though the 50 knot winds the HH's found today raised a few eyebrows, still...nada.
Loop
To loosely quote Seinfeld, this season thus far is, 'a lot about nothing.'
This is good, of course, although some areas in the tropics are in dire need of rain.
Would like to see Dr. Masters do a blog on rain deficits in and around the Caribbean.
If 92l does develop with those winds already its gonna be much ado about a lot!! and in a hurry!
Now that's the CMC we all remember from last year,glad they worked out the bugs.
Orca that loop is a bit concerning dont you think?
Quoting rareaire:
If 92l does develop with those winds already its gonna be much ado about a lot!! and in a hurry!

hehehe...love it when shakespeare re-enters the present!
it appears in the last few loops an eye is trying to form a bit south of where they thought the center was...this may cause it to push a bit more west before that northward turn
592. JLPR
Quoting Orcasystems:


This one isn't pretty at all... 3 of them at the end

cmc 2009082512 Forecast slp Java Animation


yep not pretty at all
we should watch closely since the cmc seems to be getting good at predicting TC formation with the exception that it goes nuts with the intensity lol
i luv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.
Quoting rareaire:
If 92l does develop with those winds already its gonna be much ado about a lot!! and in a hurry!
with match comes fire
Evening all.

CRS, have ur news guys made any comments about this approaching system on the local weather?

I've missed weather reports all day today :o(
An eye? Not for at least another 2 days :)
off topic...so sad...a 2year old and 3 month old died in fire in mobile home yesterday... mother only able to get one of her 3 children out of the home....neighbors tried in vain to put out the fire with garden hoses to save the babies...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

CRS, have ur news guys made any comments about this approaching system on the local weather?

I've missed weather reports all day today :o(


...um
I don't have TV (intentionally)
CRS
Quoting noleweatherman:
i uv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.i uv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.i uv you guys! that whole tp thing got me going. i was thinking of beevis and butthead haha.
you must be out on a night pass huh
roflmao....leave it to the keeper!
more to the west at 8pm...

BTW, this is the current forecast for the SE Bahamas for tonight and tomorrow. Obviously local mets are not expecting much to happen for us from this system.

----------------------------------

Public Forecast Southeast Bahamas



WEATHER FORECAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TUESDAY 25TH AUGUST 2009..........

GENERAL SITUATION: FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA TRIGGERING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA.............

FOR SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS .............

WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY, HOT AND STEAMY WITH FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TODAY...FEW CLOUDS AND WARM TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS............

FOR THE BOATERS (ADVISORY): SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.............

WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS....

SEAS RUNNING: 3 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.........

OUTLOOK FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR WEDNESDAY: A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, HOWEVER MOST OF THE WEATHER UNLIKELY TO AFFECT OUR ISLANDS AS IT REMAINS PARTLY SUNNY, HOT AND STEAMY WITH FEW SHOWERS..................
I don't like area in sw Caribbean seems to be drifting n to nw. With these troughs coming this far south, it reminding me of October.
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
more to the west at 8pm...



As expected. The models did not initialize the steering flow very well.
it is just weird to have winds that high in an invest...realize still not organized but winds like those deserve a name...and the next name on the list is my hubby...and he has one heck of a temper...lol
92L WINDS 45 MPH..WOW.. now is moving wnw not nw anymore..
Quoting zingocat:
\

One thing you can be sure of: No store will have any toliet paper after a storm!! Just like after a big football game and the kids go wild in front of friends houses! Advice: fill bathtub with water and use bucket or just have a 5 gallon bucket to get water from that black pool outside. It flow is a problem, might have to wait for the sun to dry out yard. So it really doesn't matter what brand you use......as long as you have plenty!!


My taste of that advice: Somehow make sure your tub will not slowly drain out with the stopper in place. Ours was empty within 12 hours after Gustav came through. And, we found that a kiddie pool with a little bit chlorine in it was just fine for the flushing! (with bucket for transport)
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
92L WINDS 45 MPH..WOW.. now is moving wnw not nw anymore..


I don't think it was ever moving NW. Cloud motions indicated WNW.
610. JRRP
It's raining here, right now, I guess part of the "popup" storms we've been getting due to the front to our west.

The local marine forecast says no significant weather expected in the Bahamas between now and the weekend. 'Twould be pleasant if it remains so....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you must be out on a night pass huh
yeah i use this blog all the time. i look up to the wisemen in here and learn everyday. storm you rock dude. well so far this season ana was nothing she is my aunt. bill is my grandpa and he was all talk. dont have a claudette in the fam. but i do have two cousins named danny and ericka. so fun fun. you guys are awesome in here.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
it is just weird to have winds that high in an invest...realize still not organized but winds like those deserve a name...and the next name on the list is my hubby...and he has one heck of a temper...lol
Heard you say that a few days ago. Let's just hope if 92L does become Danny he won't have much of a temper. LOL
last coordinates at 8pm were .1N and 2.0 west...no where near wnw...more like wwwwnwww
ruh rohh!

From the HPC

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2009


DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND A RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR WESTERN CANADA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS
PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST
REGION.
Baha

My Bar is still high, and "rose" when I just tapped it. What little breeze I have is still SE.

That's all for tonight. I'll see what Wed brings.

Goodnight.

CRS
It ain't happenin' for 92L right now.
>Loop
Will have to check back in the morning.
Good night
Quoting tiggeriffic:
it is just weird to have winds that high in an invest...realize still not organized but winds like those deserve a name...and the next name on the list is my hubby...and he has one heck of a temper...lol


o danny boy the pipes the pipes are callin you
Friday's NHC forecast. Looks like they expect it to move further west if it doesn't strengthen....

lol...Danny not a good name in my house...youngest is a Danny JR....and he has a temper worse than daddy... watching, waiting, and praying some of the models are right and keep it a ship storm...but with the cmc track...not liking the scenerio
Quoting gordydunnot:
I don't like area in sw Caribbean seems to be drifting n to nw. With these troughs coming this far south, it reminding me of October.
I asked about this earlier an didnt get a response. looks interesting
92L the NYC cane?
watch out if you live in the northeast..
627. flsky
Quoting atmoaggie:

My taste of that advice: Somehow make sure your tub will not slowly drain out with the stopper in place. Ours was empty within 12 hours after Gustav came through. And, we found that a kiddie pool with a little bit chlorine in it was just fine for the flushing! (with bucket for transport)

I love practical advice.
Quoting iceman55:
SevereHurricane why ?


The pattern mentioned by the HPC is favorable for a Hurricane to get into the Gulf of Mexico.
Hey Tampa -Chicklit said ain't!! OMG its armegeddon!
all 92L needs is for the sheer to drop and it is forecast to do so...with the winds like they are now and low sheer...it is sure to wrap around pretty quick...
just because everyone in Texas doesn't live elbow to a--ho-e doesn't mean we lost less than anywhere else that has been hit by a hurricane of any size.. Alot of people hit last year had their insurance policies and got screwed. When a homes value goes from 300,000.00 to 57,000.00 because a storm came in. Yah, house got a little damage but not whipped out like houses on either side. All being fairly new houses. It hurts everyone. Hurricane Ike was a cat 2 with a 600 mile span before it hit. Giving it the storm surge of a cat 4. Lets see how you far in that situation. Im not trying to be mean or rude just tired of hearing that Texas wasn't hit that bad and they are making it out to be worse than it was. Besides a storm could take my house if it meant a life was spared. A life is worth more than any possessions a person has. Believe me if a storm is coming to your area there will always be the ones that refuse to leave or believe it will turn another direction and people will lose their lives. Again not trying to be mean or rude. jmo
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...um
I don't have TV (intentionally)
CRS
Hey, I was thinking more radio stuff anyway lol.

I rarely do the TV weather here, and the radio weather is usually someone from the met office reading a statement similar to the one I posted earlier.

But I'll take ur barometer reading for the time being....

Good night!
understand texas...i posted earlier bout the GOM and NE USA thing...it also depends on the forward speed of the cane...a snail will do more damage with lower wind speeds that a fast mover with higher speeds...longevity means a lot with sustained winds.
StormW is that anything to watch in the SW carrb?
ok...going to bed...work at 7am...back tomorrow to see what the future of Danny holds
Ive worked storms on the coast and the ones in texas I can assure you damage is damage. I can assure you as well no 2 canes are alike. Wilma small but like swinging a steel pipe, Katrina wide and dense lots of water and wind. Ive never rolled up to a site after a Hurricane and said wow that isnt too bad. To me the emotional toll far exceeds the fiscal damage.
Quoting rareaire:
Hey Tampa -Chicklit said ain't!! OMG its armegeddon!


YOU READS ME's MIND........LMAO
nite storm!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Oh Danny boy the, trough's, the trough's are calling!!!
Quoting texascoastres:
just because everyone in Texas doesn't live elbow to a--ho-e doesn't mean we lost less than anywhere else that has been hit by a hurricane of any size.. Alot of people hit last year had their insurance policies and got screwed. When a homes value goes from 300,000.00 to 57,000.00 because a storm came in. Yah, house got a little damage but not whipped out like houses on either side. All being fairly new houses. It hurts everyone. Hurricane Ike was a cat 2 with a 600 mile span before it hit. Giving it the storm surge of a cat 4. Lets see how you far in that situation. Im not trying to be mean or rude just tired of hearing that Texas wasn't hit that bad and they are making it out to be worse than it was. Besides a storm could take my house if it meant a life was spared. A life is worth more than any possessions a person has. Believe me if a storm is coming to your area there will always be the ones that refuse to leave or believe it will turn another direction and people will lose their lives. Again not trying to be mean or rude. jmo
Hey, I feel u, man. I don't think anyone here is trying to downplay what happened w/Ike.

What I got from some of the earlier posts was that a weaker storm would do more damage in the NE simply because there is more per square mile TO damage. I don't think they meant that Texans didn't suffer as much.

Frankly, I think TX has an advantage in that there IS still so much of the coast that is relatively undeveloped. It takes a storm like Ike, with a direct hit on one of TX's three major population centres, to do the kind of financial damage that a cat 1 / cat 2 would do anywhere from, say, Jersey to Mass. It means TX has a better chance of a quick recovery than the NE coast.

In the end, though, it's the individual cost that people remember, the ones that went through it. I don't think a Texan who loses his home to a storm is going to feel it any less than a New Yorker would.
iam out as well see ya in the am around 6 or so

later stormw and all
I kind of wonder if the CMC doesn't end up working the ULL to the surface, joining it with the trough. I wish the 300vort worked there. CMC has really seen this from near 5 days before it formed & has been very insistent & pretty consistent. From the long before get go, far out preformed & now sitting about the top of the class in the model comparison which only goes back 24 hrs. Didn't care for the slight jog left last run. Definite concern for Bahamas & the Carolinas.
thats true too vortex95 they are calling as well
I wonder if there isn't a problem with obs assimilation for the 0 UTC GFS. The 18 Z GDAS would go into it...I think (you here, nrt?), but the GDAS is reporting a >3 hours late status: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_18_UTC_GDAS.html
Something is broke, but how broke and is it going to effect the 0 Z GFS, and thus GFDL and HWRF, I dunno. Hope not. Could be bad to have a funky 0 Z run when we might only have a few of those before some potential landfall.
I need to go back to bed..... lol

I don't know if I'll get a chance to look in in the a.m., but I'm sure hoping I only find a gusty shortwave when I do, and not an approaching TS....

Good night, ya'll.
atmo~ could they be trying to squeeze in recon data?
Quoting Skyepony:
atmo~ could they be trying to squeeze in recon data?

I know they have held up the works for a few minutes to do that before, but I cannot envision holding up GFS for hours.
Plus, GFS has all on time reports: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_00_UTC_GFS.html

Like I said, I don't know what this might mean for the GFS run, hopefully nothing. Not sure how we will know whether or not it did, either (unless it does something really whacky).
Bahahurricane I understand that. but the part of the Gom that was hit is very populated at Galveston Bay and The Houston Ship Channel. The unpopulated areas are down between freeport/Matogorda bay to Corpus Christi. appreciate your opinion and knowledge. As I do others that post on here.
Quoting texascoastres:
Bahahurricane I understand that. but the part of the Gom that was hit is very populated at Galveston Bay and The Houston Ship Channel. The unpopulated areas are down between freeport/Matogorda bay to Corpus Christi. appreciate your opinion and knowledge. As I do others that post on here.

Believe me, most of the regulars in here know very well those names, like: Bolivar, Anahuac, Winnie, Baytown, Deer Park, Port O'Connor, etc. And over towards LA: PA, Bridge City, Orange, and even Groves, Nederland, Port Neches, and Orangefield.
Latest updates... and I am off to bed :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Kman said yesterday that pre 93L might start pulling to the NW. Now post 93L looks like its trying to pull more N. Just an observation. Any thoughts?
As am I. Heres to another day of, "we have no idea whats gonna happen"
Wow ,,what an strong invest,45mph !!!
ok 1st time on here tonight had chores LOL but from what I am reading I think I am missing something tonight.... Can somebody fill me in Please with out going back and reading the blog...

Taco :0)
atmoaggie
agreed
Atmo~ Yes that would be an unusual amount of time to hold that up. Guess we'll have to wait & see.
atmo - you mentioned something earlier regarding wind readings and land/shallow water.

Care to explain? Would appreciate it. TIA.
Quoting antonio28:
92L the NYC cane?

Well its not a "cane" so no.
just the thought of storm coming your way or general area scares the he-- out of ya especially when you see it on here. So many people watch what gets posted on here. i have been reading this blog for about 5 years now and when it gets serious, this is the best place to keep informed. with the knowledge on this blog your chances are better with every discussion. thanks guys/gals; good night, see ya'll tomorrow
G'morning all.
:)
AMY!!!

Sorry, that deserved caps. :)
So every model that relies on GFS to initialize is just dead in the water?
Hello ws
Quoting HopquickSteve:
So every model that relies on GFS to initialize is just dead in the water?


No one knows at this point.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I know they have held up the works for a few minutes to do that before, but I cannot envision holding up GFS for hours.
Plus, GFS has all on time reports: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_00_UTC_GFS.html

Like I said, I don't know what this might mean for the GFS run, hopefully nothing. Not sure how we will know whether or not it did, either (unless it does something really whacky).


Yeah, I saw a picture of it. 92L at 24 hours deepens to 875 mb, and then at 72 hours becomes a small singularity which sucks in the earth. LoL
any word on shuttle launch????
well already an strong tropical storm wind invest,I wonder if it will reach a hurricane one strength invest>?
NRAamy - what the heck did you get banned for?

Can't imagine of any misdeeds by you.
Why hasn't the NHC issued its latest on 92L yet? it only gives the 8pm report.
Quoting clearblueocean:
Why hasn't the NHC issued its latest on 92L yet? it only gives the 8pm report.



they will at 11pm two
Quoting stillwaiting:
any word on shuttle launch????




its a no go tonight they will try on wed night
Its 12:34 am where I'm at and still haven't seen the 11pm update.
684. Prgal
Quoting scottsvb:



your a idiot!

Hmm, why "an idiot"? It says 45mph winds and its still an invest.
Quoting clearblueocean:
Its 12:34 am where I'm at and still haven't seen the 11pm update.




on my time zone it dos not come out in tell 10:30pm
Quoting clearblueocean:
Why hasn't the NHC issued its latest on 92L yet? it only gives the 8pm report.


NHC does the TWO four times per day, and all in eastern time:

2 AM
8 AM
2 PM
8 PM

Ergo, next update will be at 2AM.
guys 92L has no SFC low with no SFC low they cant name it a TS the wind dont care how strong it is NO sfc low NO name storm
Thanks for letting me know that.
Retracted the dumb question.../
Quoting Tazmanian:




its a no go tonight they will try on wed night




thanks dude!!!,was up until 1:30am last night,atleast I can go to bed now,until tomorrow:see ya!!!!
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys 92L has no SFC low with no SFC low they cant name it a TS the wind dont care how strong it is NO sfc low NO name storm


Indeed. It will be at least another 24 hours before the system organizes enough. A closed surface circulation cannot form with such significant shear in the area, because the convection is what sustains the circulation. The convection is consistently being pushed off to the northeast by strong southwesterly upper flow associated with the nearby upper level low.

Until this eases (and it is, albeit gradually), 92L cannot become a tropical depression.
Additionally, 92L is going to be hard-pressed to develop a low-level warm core with that ULL nearby, due to its baroclinic nature.

There are also appear to be at least two distinct areas of vorticity within the system.
Quoting stillwaiting:




thanks dude!!!,was up until 1:30am last night,atleast I can go to bed now,until tomorrow:see ya!!!!



the shuttle was haveing some bugs with so they could not launch it tonight so am hoping that they get the bugs fixs soon
Quoting stillwaiting:




thanks dude!!!,was up until 1:30am last night,atleast I can go to bed now,until tomorrow:see ya!!!!


Per NasaTV, the shuttle is going to try another launch around 12:22AM on Friday.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Additionally, 92L is going to be hard-pressed to develop a low-level warm core with that ULL nearby, due to its baroclinic nature.

There are also appear to be at least two distinct areas of vorticity within the system.



this storm will take some time i see
am back hows everything going this evening/morning
Quoting btwntx08:
am back hows everything going this evening/morning



same has a few hrs a go and befor that and for that not march new going on
Quoting Tazmanian:



same has a few hrs a go and befor that and for that not march new going on

ok just wanting to know thanks taz
Quoting Prgal:

Hmm, why "an idiot"? It says 45mph winds and its still an invest.



Not you....now 45mph happens all the time in a tropical wave...also normal severe thunderstorms on land... they dont make a system a TD or TS until there is a full 360dg circulation... now that guy who wrote a Cat 1 Hurricane invest is a idiot!
700. 7544
looks like 92l wants to follow what the cmc shows
If CMC is right it's an ObamaCane

Link
Latest CMC continues to show a major hurricane hit for Saturday to entire East coast from North Carolin to Long Island, includng NYC. Are you getting prepared?
Quoting Orcasystems:
Latest updates... and I am off to bed :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI



Nice pic update........LOL
705. 7544
well if this criiter has 45mph winds as a invest and get it together in 24 hours this will skip td status and just be calleed ts danny
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Latest CMC continues to show a major hurricane hit for Saturday to entire East coast from North Carolin to Long Island, includng NYC. Are you getting prepared?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kw_Lf-JhdSU
Quoting scottsvb:



Not you....now 45mph happens all the time in a tropical wave...also normal severe thunderstorms on land... they dont make a system a TD or TS until there is a full 360dg circulation... now that guy who wrote a Cat 1 Hurricane invest is a idiot!
Actually i would call it a Mid Level Sub-tropical Storm,lol just kidding
709. 7544
23/67 could this be the spot that wins to form center
Quoting chucky7777:
Actually i would call it a Mid Level Sub-tropical Storm,lol just kidding


Chuch your analysis there isn't too far off......It probably is more like a Sub-Tropical storm with the ULL dumping cold air on top of 92L! Your not too far off bases at all with that thinking.
Actually i'm beginning to think the ULL is working its way down to stack on top of 92L. It that happens 92L will intensify very very quickly.
Quoting 7544:
well if this criiter has 45mph winds as a invest and get it together in 24 hours this will skip td status and just be calleed ts danny

good job thats what it says on the two but we expect a new one come out in a bit so lets see if it stays the same thing
715. 7544
Quoting TampaSpin:
Actually i'm beginning to think the ULL is working its way down to stack on top of 92L. It that happens 92L will intensify very very quickly.


but isnt the ull moving west now and 92l is wnw tia
Quoting TampaSpin:


Chuch your analysis there isn't too far off......It probably is more like a Sub-Tropical storm with the ULL dumping cold air on top of 92L! Your not too far off bases at all with that thinking.
cool i was just being facetious,but i knew no closed circulation means no name blob or Gale.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Actually i'm beginning to think the ULL is working its way down to stack on top of 92L. It that happens 92L will intensify very very quickly.
I cannot see it now,but earlier it seemed to have 3 spins at different heights,what a difficult system to forecast.:|
Quoting hydrus:
I cannot see it now,but earlier it seemed to have 3 spins at different heights,what a difficult system to forecast.:|


Strange but your correct. It almost appears the ULL has dropped part of it on top of 92L while the main ULL is moving to the NW.....really crazy stuff when a surface low ducks under an ULL. We don't see that often occur.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think so. LOOK at this RGB loop. The RGB is the best loop to look at during the night when you don't have a visible.


Steering analysis from CIMSS suggests that the upper low will eventually move away from 92L.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER...ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS...IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
IN CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH
. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
723. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER...ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS...IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
IN CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH
. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$


maybe at dmax one hour from now
Quoting KoritheMan:


Steering analysis from CIMSS suggests that the upper low will eventually move away from 92L.


Look at the WaterVapor loop and the RGB loop! You can see that 92L is moving nearly Due WEst while the ULL is moving NW. It appears to me the ULL lost part of its midlevel and is now stacked on 92L. If you go to my website and look at the different levels of Vorticity. You will see that 92L is now stacked all all levels.....its getting ready to blast off.
Early Morning Folks.....Serious case of insomnia (first time in a long time) and going to Orlando for a conference tommorow...Thought I would have a beer, check in, and see if I can get to sleep....... 92L looks like crap this am.......You folks, and the models, sure this thing is going to make it?...... :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Actually i'm beginning to think the ULL is working its way down to stack on top of 92L. It that happens 92L will intensify very very quickly.
Earlier I saw the regional weather map of 92L,it showed a gale center,a low and the invest all crammed together. Well alright already it,s a :Upper Level Sub Tropical Gale center: I just can,t Imagine whats going to happen when it intensifies rapidly.Possibly a convective hybrid cold core meso-galecane.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Early Morning Folks.....Serious case of insomnia (first time in a long time) and going to Orlando for a conference tommorow...Thought I would have a beer, check in, and see if I can get to sleep....... 92L looks like crap this am.......You folks, and the models, sure this thing is going to make it?...... :)
-That sounds relaxing anyway,no matter how this turns out I believe we will have plenty to watch next 14 days.Have ya seen some of those models? JEEZ!
OK...I'll try again (with a better question). Last time I looked at 92L, yesterday around 4:00 PM, it was just North of PR and now, 9 hours later, just slightly to the West and not much movement. The NHC two does not mention speed (not a TD yet) but the system seems to be kind of stalled to me, which, would throw off any timetables suggested by the current models......Any Thoughts?
Quoting hydrus:
-That sounds relaxing anyway,no matter how this turns out I believe we will have plenty to watch next 14 days.Have ya seen some of those models? JEEZ!


Morning; seems like lots on the horizon, model wise,for September; once some the persistent sheer dies down, we could see a nice jump in activity...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
OK...I'll try again (with a better question). Last time I looked at 92L, yesterday around 4:00 PM, it was just North of PR and now, 9 hours later, just slightly to the West and not much movement. The NHC two does not mention speed (not a TD yet) but the system seems to be kind of stalled to me, which, would throw off any timetables suggested by the current models......Any Thoughts?


I would say the slower it goes the more likely out to sea it goes as the trough will pick it up before getting to the ConUs.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I would say the slower it goes the more likely out to sea it goes as the trough will pick it up before getting to the ConUs.


Morning to you; makes sense although some folks earlier today were thinking that the Trof might weaken and dissipate at bit...
Well; just checking in and have a great day to those on....I'll check back on Friday or Saturday.....WW
the two did mention the speed here it is
THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH
I'm out too......good nite WW
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
OK...I'll try again (with a better question). Last time I looked at 92L, yesterday around 4:00 PM, it was just North of PR and now, 9 hours later, just slightly to the West and not much movement. The NHC two does not mention speed (not a TD yet) but the system seems to be kind of stalled to me, which, would throw off any timetables suggested by the current models......Any Thoughts?
Here is what I do know..1 -Convection has been persistent,but keeps shifting position and has not been over the top of any of the circulation centers(which it seems to have 2 or 3 depending when you look at it).2. Movement--circulation centers keep reforming in the same general area, but the last advisory has the center 350 miles north of Hispaniola.3--Shear-it has been fighting the shear before it was even an invest.,4--It is a really disturbed weather system.
Look at the hurricane hunter data in the wunderground tropical report. Peak winds of well over tropical storm force already detected. Still not convinced that this is a warm core yet though. That being said, I personally expect this to be a named storm by sometime this afternoon/evening. Also the Nam has recently come inline with the western-most track scenario, which is interesting. GFS is like a rock predicting the storm to remain an open wave and basically stay as far off the coast as Bill did. I don't buy the GFS, however the westerly track originally showed up on the Canadian model and the Canadian model was too far west with Bill. We will see what happens. One way or the other there is a heavy rain event possible for New England. Firstly if this system does impact the area. And secondly, even if it misses there will be an abundant rain storm caused by an approaching front and strong jet dynamics. Enjoy the nice weather while it lasts!
L92 must be watched..very closely ..all the time..storms this time of year are very crazy!predicting is very hard to do.. been watching them for 40 years.


Looks like the invest should be a Tropical Depression by now. A passing remark, as I have to go in ten miniutes
NIght all!
so far so good this yr unless you live in s china or taiwan. good morning everyone
goodmoring leftovers nice morning here in Fla. how about you? nice weather?
litestar hey there. if we did not have a/c not too many people would live here. not much on the near horizon to worry about storm wise there is all kind of storms 92 is no exception
Per NHC:

"Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection."


Sounds like 92L to me.
If the NHC named it, I would think they would call it Tropical Storm Danny. None of the Dvorak readings call it subtropical, plus in their TWO they said it could become a Tropical Storm at any time.
Check back later in the afternoon.
Good Morning - any signs of this thing getting a low level circulation?
Quoting leftovers:
litestar hey there. if we did not have a/c not too many people would live here. not much on the near horizon to worry about storm wise there is all kind of storms 92 is no exception


only the the dedicated would - I say ban AC -- weed out the lightweights and the mall shoppers. Let's go back to the Old Natural Florida - *giggle*

Oops Good Morning... got my young son out on a dive boat - spearfishing in the Gulf -- due for some weather this afternoon (?) so I'll be watching the water.

748. IKE
Looks like potential waves for you again this weekend Leftovers.... I'm twitching here on the gulf-- so flat it's slick..... and 91 degrees.... the ingredient for trouble are there -it's just waiting for a seeding to get going......
Morning Ike -- thanks for the trackmap... looks like another one making a repeat performance
752. eddye
92l goes towards fl dont belive the models
Quoting eddye:
92l goes towards fl dont belive the models


the two-legged kind or the spaghetti ones?? LOL
754. IKE
6Z NOGAPS......keeps 92L mainly offshore.


6Z GFS.....is offshore w/92L...
755. Mikla
92L w/ models, mid & upper shear...
756. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
Morning Ike -- thanks for the trackmap... looks like another one making a repeat performance


Good morning......
looks like I poped back in at the right time. If the CMC is to be belived I am getting wacked this weekend :)
758. eddye
i think 92 l will head towards south fla because the models cant handle this system
Quoting IKE:
6Z NOGAPS......keeps 92L mainly offshore.


6Z GFS.....is offshore w/92L...

Too close for comfort
anybody want some homemade pancakes and link country sausage?
Quoting Bonedog:
looks like I poped back in at the right time. If the CMC is to be belived I am getting wacked this weekend :)


get your board out my man, and seek revenge!! I bet Leftover's is still smiling from riding Hurricane Bill. I know my kid is.
Quoting surfmom:


only the the dedicated would - I say ban AC -- weed out the lightweights and the mall shoppers. Let's go back to the Old Natural Florida - *giggle*

Oops Good Morning... got my young son out on a dive boat - spearfishing in the Gulf -- due for some weather this afternoon (?) so I'll be watching the water.



I'm not a native Floridian, but my co-workers who are tell me that back in the 50's and 60's it wasn't as hot in Florida as it is now. I've even been told about snow flurries in Broward County!

Patiently awaiting the visible shots - doesn't it appear that there are several circulations centers at different latitudes and the system is not vertically stacked?
I believe I see a LLC starting/trying to form at 24.9 N 68 W does anyone else see this?
Mikla - hummmm ..there's that one pink line....plowing right through my neighborhood.....

Decisions, decisions - 92L - a repeat performance or a creative left- What shall Mother Nature decide?

guess I'll stay tuned
remember 93 nature can repeat itself. look for a similiar system (low amplitude) in the next wk or two maybe it will be alittle more north
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Invest 92L heads west-northwes updated

Nice blog 456
surfmom Bill was awsome up here. 10-15 double overhead light breeze :) bad rips though, seen several day tripers be taken out be guards. People just don't obey the flags.

If 92L wraps up and becomes Danny and follows the CMC we get slammed, any other model and it looks like another great wave day.
770. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
anybody want some homemade pancakes and link country sausage?


Heck yes. My wife made me that the other morning. I love pancakes and sausage.

Looks like 92L has a ways to go.
Quoting kachina:


I'm not a native Floridian, but my co-workers who are tell me that back in the 50's and 60's it wasn't as hot in Florida as it is now. I've even been told about snow flurries in Broward County!



True..... all the asphalt and concrete has made a lot of difference,and rain patterns have changed with the drainage of swamps, ponds, wet lands -- personally I'd like to see the malls all returned (they're all EMPTY NOW anyway and look like air conditioned morgues ) to parks and greenbelts.....
Quoting surfmom:


True..... all the asphalt and concrete has made a lot of difference,and rain patterns have changed with the drainage of swamps, ponds, wet lands -- personally I'd like to see the malls all returned (they're all EMPTY NOW anyway and look like air conditioned morgues ) to parks and greenbelts.....


:) I'm with you on returning the malls...more open areas - parks and greenbelts would be beautiful!
Good morning...

Well, first evidence seen on Shortwave SAT Imagery of a LLC @24.5N69.5W.

Convection can be seen on the E periphery of the low being sheared still by the TUTT to is SSW.

Still moving slowly to the WNW and should remain doing so for the time being unless it builds deeper convection:

Quoting kachina:


I'm not a native Floridian, but my co-workers who are tell me that back in the 50's and 60's it wasn't as hot in Florida as it is now. I've even been told about snow flurries in Broward County!




Good morning! It actually snowed here in homestead about an inch in the 70's. Wouldn't that be great!
surfmom I agree with you as well. I remeber 10 years ago Venice was mostly farmland especially along jacaranda and center now its all cookie cutter developments with 40 to 60 percent unsold =( If they left it all farm it would be a much cooler area.

I remeber not too long ago nights where we needed sweatshirts or light jackets due to the temp drop. Now its mostly short sleeves due to the lack of temp change.

Quoting Bonedog:
surfmom Bill was awsome up here. 10-15 double overhead light breeze :) bad rips though, seen several day tripers be taken out be guards. People just don't obey the flags.

If 92L wraps up and becomes Danny and follows the CMC we get slammed, any other model and it looks like another great wave day.


People don't obey, believe or understand the power of water -- most just think of how pretty and have no clue of the weight and power of HEAVY WATER.

Had a huge Head-butt w/my son... he wanted to go out on Saturday (drive from the gulf side over to the east side)but I put my foot down....NO! Sunday was perfect... just enough spice to test him in the AM and then glassy in the afternoon. His first trip w/out me..... fretted the whole time
SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N67W 24N69W 21N69W...MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
24N69W IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA
DURING THE TIMES FROM 25/1900 UTC UNTIL 25/2100 UTC DID NOT
SHOW A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE
27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALSO JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM HAITI TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting lurkn4yrs:



Good morning! It actually snowed here in homestead about an inch in the 70's. Wouldn't that be great!


NOOOOOO!! My mango, avocados, lime, bananas, bandit chickens --who not appreciate that one bit....

I mean what BeachBunny wants to wear a snow suit???
Quoting Bonedog:
surfmom I agree with you as well. I remeber 10 years ago Venice was mostly farmland especially along jacaranda and center now its all cookie cutter developments with 40 to 60 percent unsold =( If they left it all farm it would be a much cooler area.

I remeber not too long ago nights where we needed sweatshirts or light jackets due to the temp drop. Now its mostly short sleeves due to the lack of temp change.



When you coming back to visit? --the Lady of the gulf is calling you...LOL
LOL surfmom. good keeping the youngin beached during the worst. Takes alot to stop them when the surf is up.

as far as not obeying or beliving in the power of water. Its amazing how many folks got into trouble and the sad deaths that occured. Even novice surfers got into trouble with Bill, friends and I pulled a few groms out ourselves. Besides the wicked rips the surf was just so heavy, dont remeber the last "heavy" day this far north. 16 sec period swells make for a very hard day up here LOL.
Next year unfortunatly =( Probaly April sometime =(

Have the wedding this October so all funds heading that way and to the honeymoon.

Second job is now keeping me quite busy so when I finally do catch a break we will be heading south without fail.
when i was young a long time ago all us surfers were great swimmers i remember i was never afraid because i knew i could swim all day. now the kids are all tied to their boards gives them a feeling of safety. unfornately ropes break. panic sets in. better be a good swimmer. everyone have a great day i need money
Quoting surfmom:


NOOOOOO!! My mango, avocados, lime, bananas, bandit chickens --who not appreciate that one bit....

I mean what BeachBunny wants to wear a snow suit???




The change is nice.. I love the beach but a nice fall or a winter that is not to harsh would be great.. I hate having Christmas when its in the high 80's or sweating your but off on halloween eve while trick or treating. LOL..
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL surfmom. good keeping the youngin beached during the worst. Takes alot to stop them when the surf is up.

as far as not obeying or beliving in the power of water. Its amazing how many folks got into trouble and the sad deaths that occured. Even novice surfers got into trouble with Bill, friends and I pulled a few groms out ourselves. Besides the wicked rips the surf was just so heavy, dont remeber the last "heavy" day this far north. 16 sec period swells make for a very hard day up here LOL.


16 sec!!!! LIKE A HAMMER!!! -- it was fun to see the "men" ripping it up and the groms -too young and inexperienced having to watch, if they were smart. I scouted around for pics on my blog... and the guys out in the waves are Seasoned Veterans..... just love those Salty Dogs!!

Do you think that there are any woman who can handle that kind of power??? Just seems that at a certain point, Surfing -becomes a MEN'S DAY ONLY- sport.....
leftovers very true. Now-a-days everyone belives the leash is a life line. I have had days where they have snapped and had to swim in through heavy sets. Biggest thing is not panicking, most folks do unfortunatly.
Quoting Bonedog:
Next year unfortunatly =( Probaly April sometime =(

Have the wedding this October so all funds heading that way and to the honeymoon.

Second job is now keeping me quite busy so when I finally do catch a break we will be heading south without fail.


Good!!! Keep me posted....there is always a board for you here!
It looks like there maybe a upper level or mid level circulation around 24N 66W
yes I belive there are women that handle those waves. Basically I belive its more mental then physical in heavy days. There have been times I have seen even the saltiest guy get rattled and go back in for a break. Its amazing that heavy surf and big surf are not synonomus(sp).
re 787 will do and thanks of course =)
Slow blog this morning
793. IKE
Drinking coffee.....at my house, this morning...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS IS
DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Good Morning Guys.

I beleive when i get to the computer this afternoon...We'll have TS Danny.
25n 70w looks to be where an llc is booking it due west.
Quoting Engine2:
Slow blog this morning


good morning, yes its usually slow in the morning and all the kids are in school..till afternoon when it picks up.LOL
blog picking up now td forming
Quoting leftovers:
blog picking up now td forming


From the way it sounds probably ts forming.
any changes in the models since last night?
Recon found a w e a k center circulation at flight level, well away from convection, ~22.6 70.6. They are now flying towards the heaver convection, where they might find a stronger center.
Our local Yocal weathermen keep saying " a little breezy this weekend" keep your eyes on the tropics. I give up on them. Nothing like a little advanced warning of an approaching storm, a whole 2 days and they still have no idea. IKE need a job?
Since the blog is slow today...
A little listening with your coffee

803. IKE
Quoting justalurker:
any changes in the models since last night?


Most of them are offshore w/92L...that's the lowdown..

6Z HWRF...

6Z GFDL...


Quoting SeVaSurfer:
Our local Yocal weathermen keep saying " a little breezy this weekend" keep your eyes on the tropics. I give up on them. Nothing like a little advanced warning of an approaching storm, a whole 2 days and they still have no idea. IKE need a job?


LOL.
would a shallower/developing system not be influenced by the trough like 92L would 92L continue to move WNW towards the bahamas ??????
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon found a w e a k center circulation at flight level, well away from convection, ~22.6 70.6. They are now flying towards the heaver convection, where they might find a stronger center.


Good morning

Based on the quikscat pass this morning they will likely find enough of a closed low to classify the system
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon found a w e a k center circulation at flight level, well away from convection, ~22.6 70.6. They are now flying towards the heaver convection, where they might find a stronger center.


Last night Steve Weagle in West Palm indicated that he thought the surface low was there instead of by the convection. We'll see if he is right, looking at maps tell me the center may have relocated up to 24ish 68ish
If they find something, will that info be fed into the 12Z?
Quoting IKE:


Most of them are offshore w/92L...that's the lowdown..

6Z HWRF...

6Z GFDL...




LOL.


Thanks Ike
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Last night Steve Weagle in West Palm indicated that he thought the surface low was there instead of by the convection. We'll see if he is right, looking at maps tell me the center may have relocated up to 24ish 68ish


Wouldn't that throw a wrench in things.
811. P451
Good Morning. The invest is a mess still I see. If there is a LLC I would say I see it on the south west corner of the western-most blob of convection. Not exactly conducive for intensification.





This thing looks more like a gale center trying to become an STS than anything else.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

Based on the quikscat pass this morning they will likely find enough of a closed low to classify the system


Just looked at it, and agree. Recon is now heading back to where they found that weak center. Maybe they will descend to a lower level, last time was at 12,500 ft.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Just looked at it, and agree. Recon is now heading back to where they found that weak center. Maybe they will descend to a lower level, last time was at 12,500 ft.


24N 70W
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon found a w e a k center circulation at flight level, well away from convection, ~22.6 70.6. They are now flying towards the heaver convection, where they might find a stronger center.


Hmmm... a bit further south than what I expected as noted on my previous post(s)... but I guess we'll see.
815. IKE
Looks like near 20 knots of westerly shear is partially exposing the center of 92L....

816. MahFL
I see a clear coc, and convectiom moving SW over it.
Quoting kmanislander:


24N 70W


Maybe broad / elongated SW to NE a bit.
818. IKE
Quoting P451:
Good Morning. The invest is a mess still I see. If there is a LLC I would say I see it on the south west corner of the western-most blob of convection. Not exactly conducive for intensification.





This thing looks more like a gale center trying to become an STS than anything else.


I agree. Rather messing looking.
819. P451
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Res Quikscat


That's a lot of wind displaced well from what may be the center - along with all the convection.



Again, looks more like a gale center looking to transition into an STS than anything else at the moment.

Wind shear is low in and around this feature so why it's so displaced is a mystery although I hadn't followed it yesterday.



center exposed developing td
my best guess from this is 24.84 69.89



based on cloud imagery
Quoting MahFL:
I see a clear coc, and convectiom moving SW over it.



I think your looking at the MLC sheared off unstacked system.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Wouldn't that throw a wrench in things.

Ahun! Eyes Open -might have a trickster here
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Maybe broad / elongated SW to NE a bit.


It is somewhat elongated to the SSW but looks tight enough near 24N 70W to be considered closed IMO.

Given the winds out there I would expect this to be classified given the current state of organization.
we should know by later today where the closed circulation will be..if and when it develops, based on the models, majority of the strong winds will be towards the east side of the storm, brushing the east coast.
Quoting kmanislander:


24N 70W


Hehe... I would give it a .5N deviation.

I don't really buy the solution of a LLC closer to the convection as it's being enhanced still by the TUTT to its SSW.

Also, this kind of proves the system is not self sufficient enough to produce deep enough convection as long as that TUTT still there.
Quoting kmanislander:


It is somewhat elongated to the SSW but looks tight enough near 24N 70W to be considered closed IMO.

Given the winds out there I would expect this to be classified given the current state of organization.

I would too, but more because of its location and its proximity to land and the u.s. I really think it is a very broad llc, on the sw side of the convection and I agree with whoever said, sts looking.
829. P451
Quoting Bonedog:
my best guess from this is 24.84 69.89



based on cloud imagery


Yeah I'd say that's about right.

830. IKE
Looks like it's moving almost due west.
It should begin to wrap in that convection later today as the environment becomes more favorable
832. P451
Quoting leftovers:
center exposed developing td


If it gets it's act together it will be immediately named based on it's wind values. It would be a 45mph TS.

Quoting WxLogic:


Hehe... I would give it a .5N deviation.

I don't really buy the solution of a LLC closer to the convection as it's being enhanced still by the TUTT to its SSW.

Also, this kind of proves the system is not self sufficient enough to produce deep enough convection as long as that TUTT still there.


I was " rounding up " LOL
813. kmanislander : 24N 70W

Station 41046 (Requested) - E Bahamas 23.867 N 70.870 W

835. eddye
due west towards florida
Quoting IKE:
Looks like it's moving almost due west.


"West Caster"

LOL, agree.
Quoting IKE:
Floater loop on 92L...


hey IKE
saved ya some pancakes and sausage LOL
Ok bout how close mile wise are the models bringin this thingy to you know where?
Well the NHC said we will most likely be issuing advisories today, I think either TS, or possibly even STS Danny will form at 11 a.m. Too bad I won't be back till 3, should definitely be Danny by then if organization continues. I see the quickscat has found a well defined circulation and you can see it on the visible. What could make this Subtropical is that Dannys center is displaced from the convection, making it a hybrid storm at best. Some models turn it into a Hurricane. I still see a WNW movement which leads me to believe all models may be off because most models already have it turning by later on today which will probably not happen. at least till tomorrow.
Quoting eddye:
due west towards florida



No the Bahama's
Quoting IKE:
Looks like it's moving almost due west.


Well... based on the 09Z currrents... during the last 6HR the Bermuda High has strengthen a bit and adding the fact that the system remains shallow... it should explain the more westward movement.

Quoting eddye:
due west towards florida


then heading to the GOM..right? no chance on hitting florida! j/k..
Quoting kmanislander:


I was " rounding up " LOL


LOL
843. eddye
due west towards the bahamas then florida
Quoting KEHCharleston:
813. kmanislander : 24N 70W

Station 41046 (Requested) - E Bahamas Image 23.867 N 70.870 W (23°52'1" N 70°52'12" W)



Pressure not very low though. Only 1010.5 mb
but I would expect that as small as the apparent center is the area of lowest pressure was away somewhat from the location of the buoy.
Anyway time to get ready for the day. Will check in later
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



No the Bahama's


LOL... I though he went to school already. I guess he might skip it today.
848. P451
QSCAT also appears to give this invest frontal features in addition to the elongated center.

Just not all that tropical looking to me.

Looks like something you'd find off the North Carolina coast in October.

Quoting eddye:
due west towards the bahamas then florida



I doubt it will make it that far west but, ya never know.
850. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:


hey IKE
saved ya some pancakes and sausage LOL
Ok bout how close mile wise are the models bringin this thingy to you know where?


ECMWF and CMC and NAM have it making landfall on the Carolina coast.

Other models like the GFS, GFDL, HWRF and NOGAPS keep it offshore.
851. eddye
im at school
Quoting kmanislander:
Anyway time to get ready for the day. Will check in later


Have to do the same... l8r Kman... and everyone... checking back in 1 to 2 hours.
Quoting IKE:


ECMWF and CMC and NAM have it making landfall on the Carolina coast.

Other models like the GFS, GFDL, HWRF and NOGAPS keep it offshore.


You're gonna get in trouble for that, lol
Our local mets are sure that 92L/Danny will stay offshore of N. Carolina and will give us some breezy conditions if that.
Quoting IKE:


ECMWF and CMC and NAM have it making landfall on the Carolina coast.

Other models like the GFS, GFDL, HWRF and NOGAPS keep it offshore.


Which of these have been the best so far this season Ike?
Quoting P451:
QSCAT also appears to give this invest frontal features in addition to the elongated center.

Just not all that tropical looking to me.

Looks like something you'd find off the North Carolina coast in October.



Nice illustration. The combination of the track, winds and proximity to land will probably spur the NHC into classifying it. If the low tightens up later it should look more tropical in nature.
Quoting IKE:
Looks like it's moving almost due west.


I know and if you look at the spaghetti models all have it going NW at this point. Watch out Carolina coast.
858. IKE
Quoting claimsadjuster:


Which of these have been the best so far this season Ike?


To me, the ECMWF.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WX NEARING THE BAHAMAS COULD RESULT IN VERY DIFFERENT MARINE OUTCOMES
FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. THE SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU...GRADUALLY PUSHING SEAS
BACK UP TO NEAR SCA. THE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS UP INTO THU NT...WITH
WINDS UNDER 15KT. USING HPC FRONT/PRESSURE PATTERN AS A GUIDE SHOW
A WEAK LOW MOVING OUT OF THE S AND PASSING THROUGH THE PAM SOUND
BY SAT.
HAVE BUMPED UP THE WINDS MARGINALLY TO 15 TO 20 KT FRI
NT/SAT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH. GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNFAVORED MODEL GIVEN FAR E OUTLIER...SO DON`T TRUST WAVEWATCH SEA
HEIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL SCA BUT BUMPED
SEAS UP ABOUT A FOOT TO BETTER MATCH OUR OPC OFFSHORE FCST. AT
THIS TIME FCST HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON SYSTEM POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
WHICH IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING LOW.

This was in the marine section. Well they believe a landfall should occur and the gfs is to far east since there has to be a landfall for it to get in the sound.
Quoting willdunc79:
Our local mets are sure that 92L/Danny will stay offshore of N. Carolina and will give us some breezy conditions if that.



Your not serious are you. ARE SURE is a bold statement.
Quoting IKE:


To me, the ECMWF.


I agree.
Same Buoy
Station 41046 (Requested) - E Bahamas 23.867 N 70.870 W

Wind Direction
08 26 5:50 am NNE
08 26 4:50 am NNE
08 26 3:50 am NE
08 26 2:50 am NE
08 26 1:50 am ENE
08 26 12:50 am NE
08 25 11:50 pm ENE
08 25 10:50 pm NE
08 25 9:50 pm ENE
08 25 8:50 pm NE
08 25 7:50 pm ENE
08 25 6:50 pm E
08 25 5:50 pm ENE
08 25 4:50 pm ENE
08 25 3:50 pm E
08 25 2:50 pm E
08 25 1:50 pm E
08 25 12:50 pm E
08 25 11:50 am E
08 25 10:50 am E
08 25 9:50 am E
08 25 8:50 am NE
Hurricane Bill's remnants currently bringing warm, horizontal drizzle to sw Scotland as I look out of the window.
Quoting eddye:
im at school
turn off computer and learn something
865. IKE
Tell 92L to put some clothes on...

92L still looks like crap. I'm not sure why the NHC says this can become a Tropical Storm at any time. No TS until late Thursday at the earliest.
when can we see NHC put up a T.S. warning for bahamas? do you think tomorrow or later tonight?
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


You're gonna get in trouble for that, lol


IKE...
I'm just a novice but if 92L gets its act together that thing could be scary. It appears to be a pretty decent size storm.
Good Morning Press...
exposed coc now 24.78 70.18



finally a good spot

Convection displaced to the W and NW
Shear has subsided we should soon see some convection wrapping in
Quoting IKE:
Looks like it's moving almost due west.


Be interesting to see the 12z xtrap and BAM models when they come out shortly.

Morning all,

Good to see ya press and Dart.
LOL oops I mean East and Northeast

sorry direction diareha this morning
Quoting Bonedog:
exposed coc now 24.78 70.18



finally a good spot

Convection displaced to the W and NW


Uhh you mean east and northeast right? LOL
Morning SJ... Love the pic of you and little man.
re 875 yup check 874 LOL

my bad, still on the first cup
Quoting willdunc79:
Our local mets are sure that 92L/Danny will stay offshore of N. Carolina and will give us some breezy conditions if that.


Thought it was Dean, not Danny, for the next named storm...
Thats the same image, Jeff.
EDIT...
OK, you edited it.
Funny Bonedog & HK :~)


Is the SFWM site usually the first to update with the Xtrap, and the BAM models?
06 gfdl starting to track west now =(

Link

wonder what the other models will start doing? east coast better keep a weather eye out for 92L/Danny might be our turn to finally get hit =(
As Press says, it is not the Carolinas, it is either North Carolina or South Carolina. Our neighbors to the North, stick out like a sore thumb. I have always thought of Wilmington as the magnetic north for east coast storms. Folks from OBX, Wilmington know the drill. IF 92L/Danny runs a bit more west up the coast, I would be surprised if they get caught unprepared.

NWS for Charleston:
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM
TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
THE
NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL APPEAR TO BE SIMILARLY CLUSTERED WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO BE
A BIT OF AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND HOW QUICKLY IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE TROUGH COULD BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD HAVE AN EFFECT BY LIMITING THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND TRACKS INCREASES... WILL LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO A CHANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
885. 7544
whats the speacial feature thats moving due west is it 92l im confused lol

also 10 day gfsx more a coming

Link
Quoting mikatnight:


Thought it was Dean, not Danny, for the next named storm...


Nope, it's Danny. Hmmm. Sorry about that chief...
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
Quoting StormJunkie:
Funny Bonedog & HK :~)


Is the SWFWM site usually the first to update with the Xtrap, and the BAM models?


Morning SJ, they have been slow lately not sure why. You can also try Raleigh Weather
thanks SJ =)
hmmm looking at the names why am I worried about Grace all of a sudden =/
AL 92 2009082612 BEST 0 246N 700W 40 1009 DB
Quoting KEHCharleston:
As Press says, it is not the Carolinas, it is either North Carolina or South Carolina. Our neighbors to the North, stick out like a sore thumb. I have always thought of Wilmington as the magnetic north for east coast storms. Folks from OBX, Wilmington know the drill. IF 92L/Danny runs a bit more west up the coast, I would be surprised if they get caught unprepared.

NWS for Charleston:
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM
TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.
THE
NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL APPEAR TO BE SIMILARLY CLUSTERED WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO BE
A BIT OF AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND HOW QUICKLY IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE TROUGH COULD BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD HAVE AN EFFECT BY LIMITING THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND TRACKS INCREASES... WILL LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO A CHANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.


Well..Im from Wilmington and the local mets have been reporting on it..its a wait and see event..expect the worst but hope for the best
GM,I see 92L is still status quo,needs to get rid of that upper low before it can do anything
can i please get a link to the gfdl model run or to the latest model runs
Quoting Bonedog:
hmmm looking at the names why am I worried about Grace all of a sudden =/



Because Grace helped make the perfect storm?
Hey presslord.

I thought of you this morning when I was reading a story about two people that were swept out to sea in their boat during Bill. They made it back alive.

898. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 92 2009082612 BEST 0 246N 700W 40 1009 DB


I see the COC now on the 1215UTC visible...completely exposed at those coordinates.
It's funny hearing people get upset about others lumping North & South Carolina together when way back in the day they were actually talking about making N.C. & S.C. one and calling it the New South. It goes without saying a lot of people didn't like it so the idea was scrubbed.
I'm feeling very safe here in Florida this morning after looking at the WV loops and seeing that massive trough stalled out right over the state. Very strategic of Crist.
901. IKE
Quoting Seflhurricane:
can i please get a link to the gfdl model run or to the latest model runs


Link
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting Seflhurricane:
can i please get a link to the gfdl model run or to the latest model runs


The FSU Site is good for graphical output, and the S Florida Water Management site is good for spaghetti plots. Find both of those sites and the other most used tracking sites here.

Morning Pearland, good to see you
Quoting kmanislander:


24N 70W


Isn't that the old ULL? That same area has been moving SW for a couple of days now. Could it have gone to the surface?
CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1241 UTC WED AUG 26 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090826 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.2W 26.3N 73.9W 27.1N 75.2W

BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 71.7W 25.9N 73.2W 26.5N 74.5W

BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.5N 71.8W 26.1N 73.3W 26.8N 74.5W

LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W

SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090828 1200 090829 1200 090830 1200 090831 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.9N 76.0W 30.3N 75.7W 33.5N 72.5W 38.7N 69.3W

BAMD 27.8N 75.4W 32.5N 74.2W 38.4N 67.5W 44.1N 50.2W

BAMM 28.0N 75.2W 31.8N 73.9W 36.1N 68.8W 42.0N 60.2W

LBAR 30.1N 75.4W 34.0N 73.6W 40.3N 66.2W 45.9N 46.8W

SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS

DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.6N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 66.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 63.3W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM,I see 92L is still status quo,needs to get rid of that upper low before it can do anything


Should get that monkey (upper low) off its back today! Once it does IMO it should gather strength pretty quickly.
Quoting ncstorm:


Well..Im from Wilmington and the local mets have been reporting on it..its a wait and see event..expect the worst but hope for the best
Yep.. As I say, the magnetic north for East Coast Tropical Storms. We will be watching with you. This may be a close one for y'all, and it behooves us in the SC Lowcountry to keep a eye on this disturbance as well.
899. You're looking to get on presslord's good side aren't ya?

Will be interesting to see if 92L makes landfall in the New South ....lmao
WCTI12 - The area of disturbed weather located northeast of Puerto Rico is forecast to become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours. There is quite a range in the projected track of this system. Some of the computer models keep it well offshore and others want to take it from south to north right over eastern NC late Friday night into Saturday. I want to give it another day to see if the models to come in to better allignment. At any rate, our seas will begin increasing starting Thursday and we have the potential for some 8 foot waves by Thursday night into Friday. If the disturbance approaches us from the south on Friday, we will see rain, heavy at times for Friday night and much of Saturday.

WITN:
A strong tropical wave located about 350 miles or so north of Hispaniola is expected to slowly strengthen today and tomorrow possibly becoming a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. The tropical low is expected to pass somewhere between the North Carolina coastline, to a couple hundred miles offshore late Friday into early Saturday. The track of the low could bring eastern Carolina anything from breezy conditions with a few showers to a wet and windy forecast depending on the strength and track of the storm. How the tropical wave evolves through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night should give us a good idea of what we may expect by late week.



Hardly sounds like they are sure it will be off coast.
Quoting StormJunkie:
899. You're looking to get on presslord's good side aren't ya?

Will be interesting to see if 92L makes landfall in the New South ....lmao


he was already on my good side...but, in this case, he's also absolutely correct...
Morn all looks like he's just about primed and ready to be TD'd also on a side note they scrubbed the shuttle launch again due to bad valves :(
CMC has 92 hitting the Carols outer banks.. and two more systems in the Atlantic.
915. IKE
BAM models keep it offshore.
917. MahFL
If the center forms where it appears to be, ie more south and west than before, would that increase the chances of a FL landfall ?
00Z and 06Z WRF has an EC Runner with 92L
Quoting Orcasystems:
CMC has 92 hitting the Carols outer banks.. and two more systems in the Atlantic.


AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
Quoting willdunc79:
It's funny hearing people get upset about others lumping North & South Carolina together when way back in the day they were actually talking about making N.C. & S.C. one and calling it the New South. It goes without saying a lot of people didn't like it so the idea was scrubbed.


Considering N. Carolina is way more advanced with RTP, Duke University, UNC and Charlotte. You would think S. Carolina would be jumping all over that. IMO.
WTNT01 KNGU 261201
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261201Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 68.5W TO 30.0N 75.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.5N 69.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: AT 26/12Z LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELON-
GATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
PRESENT, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470NM EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN
THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS DECREASING NORTHWESTWARD OF THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT IS VALID UNTIL BY 271200Z AUG 09.
//

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Models are no good at this point.....
261206Z AUG 09
FM NMFC
TO FNM
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NMFC/OVLY2/0238/AUG
OVLY/TCFA/261201Z2/AUG/1OF1/TCFA AL9209/METOC
LINE/2//G/234800N7/0683600W3/300600N9/0744200W7
LINE/2//G/244800N8/0671200W6/224200N0/0700000W7
LINE/2//G/224200N0/0700000W7/290000N1/0761200W6
LINE/2//G/290000N1/0761200W6/310600N0/0731200W3
LINE/2//G/310600N0/0731200W3/244800N8/0671200W6
TEXT/20//G/214200N9/0714200W4/TCFA AL9209
TEXT/20//G/204200N8/0714200W4/VALID UNTIL 271201Z
TEXT/20//G/194200N6/0714200W4/WINDS: 30-35 KTS
TEXT/20//G/184200N5/0714200W4/MVG: WNW AT 15 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

Quoting presslord:


AAARRRGGGHHH!!!


You said last year... Carols is ok?
Quoting bonovoix:


Considering N. Carolina is way more advanced with RTP, Duke University, UNC and Charlotte. You would think S. Carolina would be jumping all over that. IMO.


All that is great...but we have Charleston...
Quoting presslord:


AAARRRGGGHHH!!!


Have they initialized the COC yet? It's hard to be confident of a track; but I am sure Florida is out of the woods on this one.
Quoting Orcasystems:


You said last year... Carols is ok?


yea...but I fear you're encouraging bad behavior in the children...
Quoting MahFL:
If the center forms where it appears to be, ie more south and west than before, would that increase the chances of a FL landfall ?
my point exactly and the system is still shallow wouldnt the trough not affect it as much ????
Quoting presslord:


yea...but I fear you're encouraging bad behavior in the children...


Me?? S&I :)
nrti, notice the difference in past track between the model plot you posted and the Navy image that keeper posted? What gives? No defined llc?

yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.
Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...
And the Luv Gov

I will return to Charleston where Beauty and Charm abound - Rhett Butler
I may not have the quote exactly right

Trust me, the idea of South Carolina and North Carolina joining, did NOT originate here.
Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti, notice the difference in past track between the model plot you posted and the Navy image that keeper posted? What gives? No defined llc?

yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.


I know I wouldn't trust any of these models yet.. they have no idea where the centre is... when the HH was there yesterday.. it was well to the west of where they thought it was.

I was just on accuweather on one of the blogs videos..and well they are calling for cat 2 storm according to one of the models..I think the canadian model..how reliable is the canadian model..from what Ive seen this year, the ECWMF has been great in the tracks in these storms but is the canadian model known for intensity?
Bam models seem to be adjusting to the more WNW movement as opposed to NW...right now, this seems to not lead to landfall being more likely. They actually show it making it further W, but then having a much sharper and faster curve to the NE.
Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...


We have Ft. Bragg, Charlotte, The Outer banks, and most importantly Mayberry (from The Andy Griffith Show) was based on a real & actual place in N.Carolina.
Orca, I was talking about the PAST track difference between nrti's image in post 911., which has now been changed (lol); and keeper's image in post 916.
938. 7544
anyone know if the new data is in these model runs or next batch coming in
Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti, notice the difference in past track between the model plot you posted and the Navy image that keeper posted? What gives? No defined llc?

yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.


Assume you are talking about my origional image from Raleigh Weather. I replaced it with the one from SFWMD since Raleigh did not have labels. Anyways, I think it just map scale. KOGs was from 06Z the other one 12Z. They both get their track from ATCF, so unless there was a change there, they should be the same.
There is an untasked HH in the system right now, so we should have better tracking soon

high clouds forming over the coc and convection wrapping around the northside



starting to get his act together the farther and farther from the ULL he gets
Quoting StormJunkie:
Bam models seem to be adjusting to the more WNW movement as opposed to NW...right now, this seems to not lead to landfall being more likely. They actually show it making it further W, but then having a much sharper and faster curve to the NE.


Heading due W, MAYBE a pinch N of Due W.
off to work i go check back in at lunch
Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...
And South is superior because the have a team in the SEC even though they aren't very significant. Mayebe if soon to be danny comes ashore in SC it could wash up some decent players for spurrier.
945. IKE
Quoting Bonedog:
high clouds forming over the coc and convection wrapping around the northside



starting to get his act together the farther and farther from the ULL he gets


The center is exposed.
Quoting willdunc79:


We have Ft. Bragg, Charlotte, The Outer banks, and most importantly Mayberry (from The Andy Griffith Show) was based on a real & actual place in N.Carolina.


Whatever, we have Round O, which is much better then Mayberry...lmao ;)
Quoting Seflhurricane:
my point exactly and the system is still shallow wouldnt the trough not affect it as much ????
Navy has it at 23.8N 68.5W
post 941. I see a PAIR of pin-hole eyes LOL
this is terrible....
Quoting potteryX:
post 941. I see a PAIR of pin-hole eyes LOL
this is terrible....


Where's TAZ when you need him?
Quoting Orcasystems:
There is an untasked HH in the system right now, so we should have better tracking soon



What does untasked mean? TIA
Hey Storm Junkie! Hope all is well up there! Good to see ya this year. Had A very solid rain yesterday on the west coast of FL...hardest of the year maybe. Thinking 92l's outer reach may have helped fuel it...I think this one is going to play a few tricks.....we are due for one imo.
Only 19 pages since yesterday…blog seems relatively slow considering there’s a TS about to be declared off the E conus. Maybe folks got their fix from Bill, but there’s still 15 days to peak…

944. Damn that chicken curse!

Un-tasked means that it was not a scheduled flight if I am not mistaken
954. 7544
Quoting IKE:


The center is exposed.


yeap thats the part thats moving due west at this hour and convection tagging along

did the trof kinda fizzle out over central fla also
yup IKE coc is exposed but looking back at the 12:15 image to the 12:45 image you cans ee the clouds starting to form over the coc ( high cirrus but still clouds) and the covection shield has moved more west to start beging to fill in the northern sector of the system.

not saying its much of anything right now but 92 is getting his act together as far as previous vis images and the current one

thanks btw =)
Hey SJ

Hey every one. Just letting yall know I have been lurking and will be lurking.

Will HH data be in the 12Z models?
Quoting leftyy420:
Hey SJ

Hey every one. Just letting yall know I have been lurking and will be lurking.



Howdy Lefty, long time no see. Good to have you around.


Soon to be TS Danny

COC exposed, shear still affecting it but is relaxing.
Quoting presslord:


All that is great...but we have Charleston...


Charleston is a great historic city. One of my favorite places on the East Coast. But not to many jobs in Charleston. And if you need any kind of advanced medical treatment you need to travel to N. Carolina.
NAO going negative.
Quoting StormJunkie:
944. Damn that chicken curse!

Un-tasked means that it was not a scheduled flight if I am not mistaken


Here is what the Tasking message header says

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 12:46Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Al92 (Probably storm name and mission number)
Observation Number: 11
wow...left 420. The first guy to answer a question for me like over 4 years ago. cool
Quoting casadunlap:


What does untasked mean? TIA


It was not scheduled by the NHC. It was however in yesterday's Plan of the Day:

3. REMARKS: NOAA MAY BEGIN FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS WITH THE FIRST TAKEOFF TENATIVELY SET
FOR 25/2000Z THIS AFTERNOON.


It is the NOAA plane that is out there now.
965. LBAR
Quoting bonovoix:


Considering N. Carolina is way more advanced with RTP, Duke University, UNC and Charlotte. You would think S. Carolina would be jumping all over that. IMO.


And by "advanced" you mean higher taxes and lots of transplanted Yankees with funny accents, I'm sure...haha. South Carolina is my homestate, and she will never merge with the likes of NC. I hate it when people in Charlotte refer to themselves as living in "metrolina"....blech!

Back to Danny...there is definitely a LLC on satelite...not sure what the NHC is waiting for.
966. ackee
do u guys think we have danny by 11pm
Quoting LBAR:




Back to Danny...there is definitely a LLC on satelite...not sure what the NHC is waiting for.


My guess would be data and facts?
Quoting BenBIogger:
NAO going negative.
neg nao what that that mean for next few weeks?
Quoting LBAR:


And by "advanced" you mean higher taxes and lots of transplanted Yankees with funny accents, I'm sure...haha. South Carolina is my homestate, and she will never merge with the likes of NC. I hate it when people in Charlotte refer to themselves as living in "metrolina"....blech!

Back to Danny...there is definitely a LLC on satelite...not sure what the NHC is waiting for.


I'm thinkin', their 2pm advisory...
definatley starting to wrap around the coc

still exposed but beging to pull his pampers up



Holy cow, my long lost pal lefty has crawled out of the wood work! Good to see ya man. Hope all is well up N. :)
Quoting casadunlap:


What does untasked mean? TIA


It is a research mission that was not tasked by NHC. It was tasked by NOAA as a special mission to gather data for future forecast improvement in the models etc. Its data is still useful for the current system.
NHC probably waiting to see what the winds are and to make sure it's a closed LLC among other things.
Quoting Buhdog:
wow...left 420. The first guy to answer a question for me like over 4 years ago. cool


Oh Yeah. Where does the time go.
take a quick look up at post 959 which was at 12:55 utz and post 971 at 13:10 in 15min the cloud pattern changed to show a wraping =)

Danny by 11am is my guess 24.94 70.46
Quoting StormJunkie:
Holy cow, my long lost pal lefty has crawled out of the wood work! Good to see ya man. Hope all is well up N. :)


Oh yeah. I can not complain lol.

Figured it was time to let yall know I am still here
Quoting NARCHER:
neg nao what that that mean for next few weeks?


Basic answer: Less wind and higher SSTs in the Atlantic
Quoting ackee:
do u guys think we have danny by 11pm


Based on its current representation... in my opinion may be tomorrow AM after DMAX.
Bone,good to see you,someone asked about you last week, and I said if the northeast is threatened he'll be here.
Quoting mikatnight:


I'm thinkin', their 2pm advisory...


I agree...2pm
LOL and guess what =/

How you been?

Ive been lurking not much to talk about so i kept quiet. This one has my interest peaked though.
'mornin' all! :)

Back home now! It's great to be back on a full size keyboard again! One of the finer things in life I suppose...

I've begun logging my video tapes into my editing station. I'm so stoked about the footage I got, I've changed my mind and plan on releasing an "Experience Hurricane Bill" video as soon as possible.

Hopefully...you'll see it by Sunday! :)

Oz---out! :)
Rain dance, rain dance, rain dance. The chances don't look good, but I'm dancin' anyway.
2pm might be right but I think it will likely be as soon as they get a vortex message.

New blog up!
Looks like the models have shifted back east again? Last night a third of the spaghetti models were coming over the outer banks.
Any theories on how things will play out to steer this thing?
Ted Kennedy has died of Brain Cancer at 77.
989. WXHam
000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN