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Hurricane Hunters don't find a depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2006

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system centered about 150 miles southeast of the North Carolina/South Carolina border this afternoon, but did not find winds strong enough to support calling it a tropical depression. Peak winds were only 25 mph at the surface, and winds of 30 mph are required before NHC will classify a system as a tropical depression. The storm does have a well-defined closed circulation, but satellite imagery and long range radar out of Wilmington, NC haven't shown much change in the system's organization today. With warm 84F (29C) waters underneath and wind shear of only 10 knots, I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm become a tropical depression or even a weak tropical storm by Thursday afternoon. However, the system has to act fast, since it will have a very hostile environment by Thursday night. A trough swinging off the East Coast today is expected to drag a filament of very strong jet stream winds southwards to Florida by Thursday night. These jet stream winds are forecast by both the GFS and NAM models to bring 100-150 knots of wind shear over the disturbance, which will easily tear it apart. Considering that wind shear over 20 knots is unfavorable for tropical storms, the 5pm NHC tropical weather outlook, "upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable for development on Thursday", is a little understated!

High pressure building in behind the trough of low pressure should force the system towards the west or southwest through Thursday night. South Carolina could see some heavy rains and gusty winds Thursday night into Friday from the storm, but a storm strong enough to cause significant damage would be a major surprise.

Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Wilmington, NC.

Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss. If you missed it, my discussion of the outlook for the remainder of August was posted in my previous blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Posted By: fldude99 at 12:36 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
ck the NHC people..whatever the so called experts here think..the "thing" off the coast of carolinas is nothing

Don't be rude. We know it isn't going to amount to much.
Ok GulfS..LOL Mornin' to you too! Hey, you definately can see what the Gulf Stream will do. If it wasnt for that shear, who knows. We get lucky again! Have a good day, time for work:(

sure "looks" like a TD..... doesnt it???
What is that GFS brings across NOLA?
Looks like a spider.
Yeah it does Thel, but it won't be classified.
tell you what.... that "cane" on that gfs loop come a little too close for my comfort....

if that track holds up..... i'll be doing lots of praying for a cane "to turn!!!"
..ty ricc..went to see spike Lees new film ,.."When the Levees Broke" ..that premiered last night here in New Orleans. Was 4 hours long @ the Arena next to the dome.It premiers Mon night on HBO..first 2 hours..then then other 2 Tues night.Is vivid reminder of what happened here last year..I left after the 3rd hour.Was around 7-8000 people there..and man sometimes you could of heard a pin drop..some times everyone just kinda let the tears roll out..Im not a emotinal type..but id had enough and bugged out early..Was riding home and was reminded of Camille..
thanx for the review pat...i'm biased against spike..but...i'll give it a view come monday

if you throw the pool furniture in the shallow end..... it makes it easier to sit in the chair in the water and weather the approaching apocalypse
convection is flared up overnight!
..yeah..Im same way about Spike..but ill give it 3 outta 5 stars..but the credit goes to those who shot the footage of the first hours after the storm,.and to the people who would tell it like it was...not what the mad media presented..
StoryOfTheHurricane, try to be considerate of dialuppers....

that loop is almost 1/3 of a megabyte, which exceeds the 200kb limit Dr. Masters set....

plus.... try downloading 1/3 of a megabyte on dialup! LOL I would need a six pack! :D

next time just make it 199.99kb! :p
..remembers pool furniture sitting on top of house in lakeview after the water went down some..and the racoons sitting up there eating satsumas..darndest sight!
Station 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts

wind speed has been the same at this buoy since 5:50am.........
miami, a little fun is ok.... please don't take advantage! ;)
..remebers the High water mark in the Broadwater Beac Hotel in Gulfport..now the mark is 4 feet higher...wowsa..
Rain in the past 12 hours

Looks like an afternnoon storm could bring more rain than 93L...
..Katrina had lighting in the periphery around the eyewall ..it was wicked..around 0515 when the eywall hit..then it stared getting light around 0545-0600..then you could just make out the banding in between gust..and man,Id never seen a ceiling so angry or low..then it was hunker down mode..
NHC AT 15/1130Z.
..funny the things you see in a massive flood..the fruit shaken loose from trees ..pears,..grapefruit..satsumas..they float good..and you never saw so many freaking gas cans floating..Boat gas...mix gas for weed eaters..it was a standing order in our life..dont get in da water..if ya could help it..We became siphoning pros too..We went from the Jetsons to the Flintstones..in 5 hours..
I think you may be right Gulf. The majority of the shear is to the north of 93L and it is moving SSW away from the shear. There is still some shear to its south, but nothing near as hostile as it is north of the disturbance.
img src="http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c20/thelmores/93lradar4.jpg"/>
sry bout the image screwup.... hit submit instead of preview! LOL

any guess on the max winds???
do you think the HH's will fly this today????

seems if they are, they would have to make the "go" decision soon......

i believe if they do fly this, and this convective burst persists, i think we have a good shot at TD.... maybe even weak TS.........

gulfscotsman -

This land "was made for" you and me.
Mornin all....Patrap, Gulf, Nash etc. Anything happening today?
if i was in ne florida, i would be concerned about "training" rain storms unless this thin picks up its forward motion..... but it looks like ne florida could be getting some outer bands(?) soon......
A tropical low in association with a dying surface trough, has increase in convection this morning. The low is located 32.5N, 78W, just of the coast of South Carolina, moving WSW. Morning quicksat pass and visible satellite imagery revealed a well-define closed low level circulation with light winds, but that might change with the increase in convection this morning. However much of the convection is not well organized around the low, being sheared from the north (Discuss below).

Pressures in the area ranged from 1014-1018mbar, and a buoy (41004) located near the center measured a 1014mbar pressure.

The low is still under the influence of an upper level high, which appears to be weakening, allowing some shear from an upper level trough, over the south east Unites States, to affect it.

If the current trend continues today, then the low might reach land before it can organize, and even so, the trough is already affecting it.

Gulf of Mexico
A surface low pressure (1012) is along a surface trough, that extends from south of the Florida/Alabama coastal border into the south central Gulf of Mexico. This low is being steered a little south of due west by an upper level High located near Louisiana/Texas.

No development is expected as an upper level low is located to its NE, under the same influence of the high.
..were all tropically depressed..LOL..Gmorning to you..
HEy the Afircan wave is almost off Africa. It looks OK!
Hmm... 93L starting to look pretty mean, but we've got some dry air heading in from the north that might have something to say about that...
Should I cancel plans to fish the Santa Fe river the next couple of days?

That's over between Gainesville and Lake City.
There are some nasty storms in that new blowup but it seems very disorganized with all the storms south of the the coc. Now if a new coc could develop in the middle of the new convection I think it still could develop because its in an area of less shear.
Observations for CHARLESTOWN, SC (CHS)
Observation time: 17 Aug 2006 12:56 UTC (Thu 08:56 AM EDT)

Sea Level Pressure 1016.7 hPa
Altimeter Setting 30.03 inHg
Station Pressure 1015.1 hPa
Temperature 80 F ( 26.7 C)
Dew Point 71 F ( 21.7 C)
Relative Humidity 74 %
Wind Direction 350 deg (N)
Wind Speed 11 kt
Visibility 10 mile
Clouds Few at 1300 feet
Air Density 1.168 kg/m3
Good morning Reel. Well, 93L is dead, alive, dead, alive.....

Actually, it stands a chance to make TD status as long as it continues moving SSW away from that hellacious shear to its North.
Gulf....I don't have any lawn furniture, how about a pirouge? Really was hoping to do some fishing this weekend....bad idea? How's the weather 'round Mobile?
"tropically depressed"

does prozac work for that? or better yet..... could you seed the depression with "prozac" and kill it.....

well, it beats the "ignite a nuclear bomb in the eye" to kill the hurricane, and blow contamination around the world! LOL

Plus, i think you can get generic prozac now! ;) LOL
Hey Nash....Gee whiz 93L just keeps on tickin.....not tickin....tickin....
Beer = generic prozac
Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8 GA
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25 kts

based upon observations, near the center for the last couple hours, i guestimate the highest sustained winds to be "at least" 30mph....

therefore, i say we "unofficially" have a tropical depression.....

if you agree or disagree....make your case! :)
Yeah it does. It'll drive you mad.
"Beer = generic prozac"

well hades.... if thats the case I WILL NEVER BE DEPRESSED! LOL
Based upon imagery and readings from the buoys, we probably have just enough to classify this as TD4. Unfortunately, they are not tasking this anymore, so it's anybody's guess.
"Beer = generic prozac"

well hades.... if thats the case I WILL NEVER BE DEPRESSED! LOL

TRUE THAT, Thel!!!
Posted By: thelmores at 1:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
if i was in ne florida, i would be concerned about "training" rain storms unless this thin picks up its forward motion..... but it looks like ne florida could be getting some outer bands(?) soon......

SO...Don't go fish the Santa Fe tomorrow???

the local radio talk show weather report kept saying that 93l had basically fizzled out.....

i sent him a visible shotin an email......

he agreed with me that the weather report he was reading "may not be totally accurate"! LOL

Oh, NO......say it isn'[t so!! :)
drlaura.... i would wait until this afternoon to get more information, before making a rashdecision now.....

i would say by 2pm today, you should have a pretty clear picture of what the weather would be like in santa fe.....
Currently at the FL-GA border (on the coast):

Winds out of the North at 5kts.
Some "sheepswool" coulds coming in from the NE, but getting shearedso to speak, fairly quickly.
Thel - I was think about heading out late this afternoon anyway. Relax, then up early am for some fishing on the river, so will keep an eye out and definitely will check with y'all before I head out towards Gainesville!
Good Morning All........Same thing here on Tallahassee weather-cast this morning Thelmores...Weatherman said that the disturbance is a "fizzle-out" and that we should expect sunny hot weather for the weekend....I'm not so sure.........
Mornin weatherman..you're IN Talahassee?
Yes, in the Northest end of town
Probability of fishing being good down around Ft. White this weekend??

starting to look clear to me.... the COC may come ashore near charleston, sc later today.....
Looks like wannabeDebby is definitely a day tripper, as the action is heating up again this morning similar to yesterday morning. Cloud tops in the convection have briefly been as cold as -75 degrees, and the LLC circulation is a little closer to the northern edge of the deep convection than earlier this morning. The diurnal blog cycle continues...fizzling...maybe not...fizzling...maybe not...fizzling (I'm serious this time!) LOL
Probably decent.....I heard this week that they baged some good Redfish down in the coastal Gulf area last weekend
could we be seeing a new center re-forming further south???

and what i have circled above is the old vortex????
well, i am sticking with charleston as landfall for 93L.... i see no other circ.....

i guess the biggest concern with this would be f1 tornado's and waterspouts......

anybody else see charleston as the final destination???
the center is about 60 miles east of charleston, heading west.......
Posted By: thelmores at 2:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.
starting to look clear to me.... the COC may come ashore near charleston, sc later today.....

thel - Lookin at the radar loop I think what you have circled is more on the NW edge of the actual LLC. Just my opinion. You may be correct that the actual LLC is moving more WSW than SW.
anybody else see charleston as the final destination???
new blog! LOL
Based upon the most current loops, and JAX NWS radar, if the current motion continues, I would guess landfall between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach...............There are some strong thunderstorms currently offshore right at the FL/GA border
From Jeff Master's blog above:
A trough swinging off the East Coast today is expected to drag a filament of very strong jet stream winds southwards to Florida by Thursday night. These jet stream winds are forecast by both the GFS and NAM models to bring 100-150 knots of wind shear over the disturbance, which will easily tear it apart.

Such a strong upper-level jetstream is unusual for Florida even in the winter, and almost unheard of in the summer. Any opinions on whether that forecast will verify?