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Hurricane Gonzalo Leaves the Lesser Antilles; Hawaii at Risk From Tropical Storm Ana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:23 PM GMT on October 14, 2014

Intensifying Category 2 Hurricane Gonzalo is heading northwest at 13 mph away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands after plowing through the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands overnight, bringing Category 1 hurricane conditions. The storm passed over Antigua Island between 10 am - 11 am AST on Monday, and Antigua recorded sustained winds of 67 mph gusting to 88 mph late Monday morning. Winds at nearby Barbuda were sustained at 60 mph, gusting to 70 mph, at 1:54 pm AST. St. Martin had sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 64 mph, at 7 pm AST, before the station stopped reporting. St. Maartin recorded sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 75 mph Monday evening. A Personal Weather Station (PWS) on St. Barthelemy recorded sustained winds of 82 mph, gusting to 108 mph, between 3 - 5 pm AST Monday. Gonzalo became the sixth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season at 5 pm Monday. Although Gonzalo's formation into a tropical storm on October 12 came nearly a month later than the typical September 16 date for formation of the season's seventh named storm, we are now ahead of schedule for hurricanes--a typical hurricane season has only six hurricanes, with the last one usually occurring in November.


Figure 1. Long range Puerto Rico radar image of Hurricane Gonzalo taken at 8:23 am EDT October 14, 2014. Gonzalo's outermost rain bands were still affecting the Virgin Islands.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gonzalo taken at approximately 10:30 am EDT October 14, 2014, as the storm was pulling away from the Virgin Islands. At the time, Gonzalo had top winds of 110 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Gonzalo
Satellite loops showed on Tuesday morning that Gonzalo was well-organized, with plenty of low-level spiral bands and heavy thunderstorm activity, and an eye that was growing more prominent. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 15 knots and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near 29°C (84°F), Gonzalo should continue to intensify on Tuesday. The 8 am Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for development through Thursday, with light to moderate wind shear and SSTs remaining near 29°C (84°F). By Wednesday, Gonzalo has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane since October 2, 2011, when Hurricane Ophelia reached 140 mph winds. By Thursday night and Friday morning, Gonzalo will encounter high wind shear, cooler SSTs of 28°C (81°F), and dryer air, which should drive steady weakening. During Gonzalo's closest pass by Bermuda on Friday, the hurricane could be anywhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 storm. Our two top models for predicting hurricane track, the GFS and European, differed considerably with their 00Z Tuesday runs on how fast Gonzalo would accelerate towards Bermuda on Friday. The European model predicted that Gonzalo would pass within 80 miles of the island near midnight EDT Friday night, while the GFS model had Gonzalo passing within 30 miles at 11 am EDT Friday.

Brian McNoldy of the Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School, has put together some great radar loops of Gonzalo, Hudhud, and Vongfong here.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Ana.

Hawaii needs to pay attention to Tropical Storm Ana
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Ana has formed, and was located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii on Tuesday morning. Ana is headed northwest at 7 mph towards Hawaii. Satellite loops show that Ana has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, characteristic of an intensifying tropical storm on its way to reaching hurricane status. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and ocean temperature would be warm, 27 - 28.5°C (81 - 83°F) for the next five days along Ana's path, with some modest drying of the atmosphere. These conditions favor development, and I expect Ana will be able to reach Category 2 hurricane strength by Thursday. Our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models, both show Ana passing very close to the Big Island of Hawaii this weekend, and it is possible that the island could experience tropical storm conditions for the second time this year.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in a Tuesday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 485. pottery:


Must be a bit 'bouncy' in that aircraft right now.........


You can tell it is by looking at the data. Aircraft fly on constant pressure surfaces, so on a smooth flight, the pressure (black curve) should be smooth and flat. Going through Gonzalo's eye (when the gray line tanks), it has been anything but that:

Haiti has stayed out of trouble for the past couple years.
Long may it last.
Northeast |
- A line of showers and thunderstorms will track slowly across the region from west to east Tuesday night through Friday, when the wet weather will finally move out of Maine.
- A few of the storms could be severe with gusty winds, and there could even be an isolated tornado from West Virginia to the mid-Atlantic coast.
- Due to the slow movement some areas could see local flash flooding as well.
- High temperatures will be above normal for most of the region Wednesday, and as much as 15 degrees above normal for northern New England.
Quoting 502. Levi32:



You can tell it is by looking at the data. Aircraft fly on constant pressure surfaces, so on a smooth flight, the pressure (black curve) should be smooth and flat. Going through Gonzalo's eye (when the gray line tanks), it has been anything but that:


Absolutely right.
I bet they are not sitting quietly drinking Martinis........
South | cooler weather!!
- Showers and thunderstorms will track across east TN, east GA, FL and the Carolinas Tuesday night and Wednesday.
- Some storms will contain gusty winds and there could be an isolated tornado.
- Localized flash flooding is also a thread with this system.
- Except for a few showers in TN the rest of the region will by dry through Wednesday.
- High temperatures will be as much as 10-15 degrees below average in the Tennessee Valley Wednesday, while much of the rest of the region will be closer to average.
Quoting 506. pottery:

Absolutely right.
I bet they are not sitting quietly drinking Martinis........


It's all part of the job!
this is not looking good for Newfoundland..
@Levi32, must be a bit scary, but I guess they have grown use to it.
Quoting pottery:
Haiti has stayed out of trouble for the past couple years.
Long may it last.


Agreed. Though the entire Caribbean is vulnerable to natural hazards, Haiti is the most vulnerable. So a break is great for disaster recovery, and economic development.
Quoting 502. Levi32:



You can tell it is by looking at the data. Aircraft fly on constant pressure surfaces, so on a smooth flight, the pressure (black curve) should be smooth and flat. Going through Gonzalo's eye (when the gray line tanks), it has been anything but that:




Good sign it's intensifying, I bet the eye diameter at his peak will be smaller too
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 0:49Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2014
Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 0:25:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°45'N 66°18'W (21.75N 66.3W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,725m (8,940ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 106kts (~ 122.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NNW (336°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 65° at 109kts (From the ENE at ~ 125.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,015m (9,892ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) from the flight level center at 22:44:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 8kts (From the SW at 9mph)
Sharp thunderstorm arrived at 4 p.m. with lots of lightning and thunder and some frisky winds. 43 mph gust reported at Brunswick airport. 72/86 The overnight low last night was 79, which would have been a record high minimum, and the warmest so late in the fall, but the thunderstorms cooled the air well below that. 0.80" in my gauge. Once again the rainfall was above all models, and once again the NWS called it!

All models predict another line of storms later tonight with the front itself. Nothing on radar yet. The Charleston wx office says that the air may be too worked over for a new line to form. Jax evening discussion is not out yet, and it's late. I am very close to the border between the Jacksonville and Charleston CWAs.

Forecast lows
the next couple nights have been revised down to the mid 50s.

The NAM depiction for 09Z. We'll see.

Quoting 506. pottery:

Absolutely right.
I bet they are not sitting quietly drinking Martinis........
The IMAX theater where I used to work had Stormchasers, with a hurricane hunters eyewall penetration sequence, camera fixed behind the cockpit crew. It was pretty funny seeing them all bobbing and swaying in unison in the turbulence, while the plane was rock-steady because of the camera mount.
Quoting 498. CybrTeddy:



HWRF bends it back into the islands and ends up getting it tangled there for a while.


That would be not good. I'm no geologist but since Hawaii is volcanic the soil isn't going to be able to withstand a lingering cyclone, let alone an atypically intense one correct? I think places that like pines and palms, as well as certain flowering plants, have harsh and often acidic soil due to the sulfur (similar to Wilmington where pines, sabals, and carnivorous plants thrive), sandy acidic soils generally can't trap as much water.
I still thinks 91L will be Hanna, this thing is already closed with the winds.

Sky and the other people who said 91L will develop is right, this things wants to get going.
anyone watching invest 92E


nice eye with this hurricane tonight
Quoting 518. hurricanes2018:

anyone watching invest 92E


i'm...I want Trudy too haha.
Really hoping Gonzalo doesn't hit Newfoundland as a cat.2 cane or equivalent post-tropical storm. We don't need another repeat of Igor here. That high pressure is eerily similar to the one the sent Igor our way. God speed to Bermuda and everyone in it's path.
Quoting 459. washingtonian115:

Gonzalo is the real MVP.Well MVH of the year.
So far....

Quoting 490. washingtonian115:

This reminds me kinda of 2004 where Janenne and Frances hit in almost the same area.So it can happen.
You mean Jeanne, right? lol ... trying to imagine the WMO choosing Janene as a hurricane name.... lol ...

At least Jeanne and Frances were a few weeks apart, not a few days.... though we did see that happen here in 1999 with the D storm [Danny?] and then Floyd...
Quoting 518. hurricanes2018:

anyone watching invest 92E
Isn't this AOI supposed to cross the isthmus of Tehuantepec and reform as an STS / TS in the Bay of Campeche?
Eyewall dropsonde data:

965mb (28.50 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.2°C (76°F) 320° (from the NW) 112 knots (129 mph)
Quoting 522. BahaHurican:

So far....

You mean Jeanne, right? lol ... trying to imagine the WMO choosing Janene as a hurricane name.... lol ...

At least Jeanne and Frances were a few weeks apart, not a few days.... though we did see that happen here in 1999 with the D storm [Danny?] and then Floyd...



Jeanene? Link
I'd say Gonzalo is at the very least at the threshold for Category 4 status based off that dropsonde.

Quoting 493. win1gamegiantsplease:



That scenario would pile up a good amount of water on the shores, but at least it turns before it reaches the Big Island. The HWRF did a good job with Gonzo but (dare I say it) I think the GFS solution is more reasonable given Hawaii's past hurricane history. Iniki is their equivalent of the 38 Long Island hurricane.


Interesting you should point that out, Iniki is virtually the equivalent to the 1938 Long Island Express in terms of track, intensity, and synoptic pattern. Bowling ball lows orientated w/ a neutral-slightly negative tilt underneath sprawling highs centered around 45-55 North (i.e. a Rex Block) seems to be common ground with both storms. Since we have the luxury of satellite observations in the latter (Iniki) perhaps studying the overall pattern set-up leading up to this storm will inadvertently reveal more information about the LI Express. I'll make note of that...

Comparison of the track & 500mb pattern in the 4 days leading up to landfall & the day of landfall itself, eerily similar to the say the least...
From the Bermuda Weather Service's website:

"HURRICANE GONZALO UPDATE
Tuesday, October 14, 2014 19:59 (local)

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT."

Quoting 523. BahaHurican:

Isn't this AOI supposed to cross the isthmus of Tehuantepec and reform as an STS / TS in the Bay of Campeche?



Not too sure, but ST Scott has been on about Gulf-bred moisture coming into Florida next week.

Hell of a catch by Moose of KC iyw
Bermuda = Hurricane survival champions of the Western Hemisphere.

http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20141014/BUSI NESS/141019867

It's been a LONG time since Recon flew in a storm like this...

Hope they remember what to do!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fabian
Quoting 527. Webberweather53:



Interesting you should point that out, Iniki is virtually the equivalent to the 1938 Long Island Express in terms of track, intensity, and synoptic pattern. Bowling ball lows orientated w/ a neutral-slightly negative tilt underneath sprawling highs centered around 45-55 North (i.e. a Rex Block) seems to be common ground with both storms. Since we have the luxury of satellite observations in the latter (Iniki) perhaps studying the overall pattern set-up leading up to this storm will inadvertently reveal more information about the LI Express. I'll make note of that...

Comparison of the track & 500mb pattern in the 4 days leading up to landfall & the day of landfall itself, eerily similar to the say the least...



Very interesting pointing out their background, similar pressure setups and they both stay true north besides the weaker high near the Maritimes keeping the 38 storm on a NW motion to its dissipation. I love how satellite was over a decade away from development and we can still see how major meteorological events unfolded back then by older instruments. One thing we do know is history repeats itself and these storms can be a lesson for the future (I've heard comparisons in the news of Hazel and the 38 storm to Sandy and in terms of meteorology Sandy was much different than those two).
http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20141014/NEWS/1 41019873

Images and video of Fay damage and clean up, getting ready for Gonzalo
Quoting 513. CybrTeddy:

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) from the flight level center at 22:44:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 8kts (From the SW at 9mph)

Sure is odd to see the strongest winds that far from the center in a strong hurricane. Could be a mini vortex... or possibly the beginnings of an EWRC?
http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20141014/NEWS/1 41019873

clean up from Fay
Quoting 537. Grothar:





Well, the top image has the pitchfork.
The bottom image shows Lucifer himself, horns and all.
The right colour too, eh ?
Latest IR Brightness image for Gonzalo. Impressive cyclone.
I got an eye on the Bay of Coatzacoalcos. Everything is running pretty much south to north until it hits the bay. Just never know this time of year.
Poll. At 11 PM EDT advisory Gonzalo will be?

a. Still a Category 3
b. Upgraded to Category 4
Im starting to grow some what concerned to the fact some of the GFS Ensembles are wanting to turn Gonzalo back west into Maine
Re the poll.... a, remains Cat 3.
Quoting 544. weatherlover94:

Im starting to grow some what concerned to the fact some of the GFS Ensembles are wanting to turn Gonzalo back west into Maine
What's the setup that would lead to that outcome???
What did we see last .... 106kts? Unless HHers find a higher wind, I'd say they hold at cat 3....

EDIT: I now see the 112 and 125 kts..... maybe they'll raise.
Quoting 547. BahaHurican:

What did we see last .... 106kts? Unless HHers find a higher wind, I'd say they hold at cat 3....

EDIT: I now see the 112 and 125 kts..... maybe they'll raise.


How are the Dvorak numbers looking for Gonzalo? Or do satellite techniques under-estimate the intensity of compact cyclones like Gonzalo?
Quoting 539. Grothar:


Reminds me of that Tom T. Hall song, Sneaky Snake. Its poised to steal someones root beer.
Quoting Grothar:
So Grothar, do you think it will develop.
As of right now I don't how it can....still kinda raises an eye to see that scenario though

Quoting 546. BahaHurican:

What's the setup that would lead to that outcome???
Gonzo has an ever improving structure, I think he being 110 kt next advisory is very possible according to his look and recon. Strange that he's at 970 mb as a 3 yet NC's last 100 kt storm was at 954 mb...a similar pressure that Irene was as a 75 kt storm.
553. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Navy, aviationweather,gov, Univ. of Washington.
SUBJECT:: Tropical/weather activities in the Atlantic (Atlantrick, last few yrs.), Mexico.
Last frame(s) 201410-14;2345UTC
Wow embedded, waited 22mins for code, geesh.

Quoting 552. win1gamegiantsplease:

Gonzo has an ever improving structure, I think he being 110 kt next advisory is very possible according to his look and recon. Strange that he's at 970 mb as a 3 yet NC's last 100 kt storm was at 954 mb...a similar pressure that Irene was as a 75 kt storm.
Irene was a sprawler, though, and IIRC had a gentler pressure gradient. That pinhole eye isn't just there for Taz to call it....


I just don't know anymore.
Quoting Huracan94:

Sure is odd to see the strongest winds that far from the center in a strong hurricane. Could be a mini vortex... or possibly the beginnings of an EWRC?


Those were flight level winds. Strongest SFMR winds are fairly close to the center but growing as the storm is growing.
#555 .... look at the mess over MX .... from the Yucatan to the Pacific.....
I see that Gonzalo has been promoted to major. Will he be promoted to Colonel?

Cat 1 = Lieutenant
Cat 2 = Captain
Cat 3 = Major
Cat 4 = Colonel
Cat 5 = General

Additional details:

Cat 3 winds with a pressure below 28.00" is a Lieutenant Colonel

Cat 5 Generals are classed according to the following:

910-919 mb Brigadier General (1 star)
900-909 mb Major General (2 stars)
890-899 mb Lieutenant General (3 stars)
880-889 mb General (4 stars)
879 mb and below General of the Army (5 stars)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 01:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2014
Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 1:20:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°52'N 66°23'W (21.8667N 66.3833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 240 miles (386 km) to the N (355°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,735m (8,973ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 116kts (From the SE at ~ 133.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 957mb (28.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 1:18:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 27kts (From the S at 31mph)

Data support a strong cat 3 at 125mph, but the NHC might upgrade to a cat 4
Looks like Gonzalo is dancing right behind, Bermuda be safe.
Quoting 533. win1gamegiantsplease:



Very interesting pointing out their background, similar pressure setups and they both stay true north besides the weaker high near the Maritimes keeping the 38 storm on a NW motion to its dissipation. I love how satellite was over a decade away from development and we can still see how major meteorological events unfolded back then by older instruments. One thing we do know is history repeats itself and these storms can be a lesson for the future (I've heard comparisons in the news of Hazel and the 38 storm to Sandy and in terms of meteorology Sandy was much different than those two).


Maybe the 1938 Long Island Express, but Hazel was very similar, timing, juxtaposition, & shape of the trough catching the storm made all the difference. The tracks of Sandy & Hazel were carbon-copies of one another until they reached the subtropics. By October's standards, that's about as close as you're going to get...

Stormpetrol I don't think the NHC will promote Gonzalo to Cat 4 based on that data.

I'm guessing 935 mb / 120 kts at the peak.
Gonzalo may go more west than previously expected, trough broken off and retracting more north!
663
WTNT33 KNHC 150254
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH 125 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 66.6W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
SOME WEAKENING AFTER THAT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL REACH THE
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES BY THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting 562. Webberweather53:



Maybe the 1938 Long Island Express, but Hazel was very similar, timing, juxtaposition, & shape of the trough catching the storm made all the difference. The tracks of Sandy & Hazel were carbon-copies of one another until they reached the subtropics. By October's standards, that's about as close as you're going to get...


Gonzalo still a Cat 3.
091
WTNT43 KNHC 150256
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Gonzalo has continued to strengthen. The plane
reported maximum flight-level of 125 kt in the northeastern
quadrant and peak SFMR winds of 108 kt. The minimum surface pressure
also has fallen about 17 mb during the last 9 hours to 954 mb.
Satellite images show that the eye has warmed and shrunk to a
diameter of 10 n mi while the inner core has generally become better
defined. However, Gonzalo has been maintaining an asymmetric
distribution of convection, presumably due to around 15 kt of
south-southwesterly shear of affecting the cyclone according to the
latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS shear analyses. A blend of the flight-
level and SFMR wind data is used to raise the initial intensity of
110 kt.

Water vapor imagery and cloud-tracked wind vectors show an upper-
level trough between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. responsible
for the south-southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, but the shear should
not be enough to prevent additional intensification from taking
place over warm waters of 28-29 deg C during the next day or so.
At some point during this time, fluctuations in strength due to
difficult-to-forecast inner core evolution are probable. By 72
hours, a significant increase in south-southwesterly shear should
induce a considerable weakening trend. Increasing baroclinicity in
the near-storm environment, much cooler waters, and drier and more
stable air wrapping around the hurricane's circulation should result
in extratropical transition by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is
about the same as the previous one, and is near or higher than the
highest intensity guidance (SHIPS/LGEM) through 36 hours but close
to the multi-model consensus after that.

Gonzalo has continued to move on a northwestward course, or 320/11,
though the center has wobbled a bit toward the left during the
last couple of hours. The hurricane should gradually turn north-
northwestward and then northward and slow down as it moves around
the western periphery of an eastward-shifting central Atlantic ridge
during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours, Gonzalo should
encounter a deep-layer south-southwesterly flow associated with a
potent mid-latitude trough swinging out of the east-central United
States. This flow pattern should turn Gonzalo north-northeastward
with increasing forward speed. Although the track guidance is
tightly clustered through 72 hours, there is still some along-track
spread in the model solutions, with the ECMWF depicting a weaker and
much-slower-moving cyclone. The new NHC forecast places less weight
on the ECMWF, owing to Gonzalo's current intensity. The official NHC
forecast lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope and
to the right of the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 22.2N 66.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.9N 68.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 26.3N 68.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 28.5N 67.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.7N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 45.1N 56.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 52.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NHC went with 110 knots, 115 is Cat 4. Will probably see that sometime tomorrow before it starts to get sheared and transition.
Quoting 540. Huracan94:





Ana looks to be sliding a bit west southwesterly of projected path. Though subtle, it could play roll in intensity of the cyclone with the increased energy available. Waters are definitely warmer southwest of it's projected path.
Quoting 544. weatherlover94:

Im starting to grow some what concerned to the fact some of the GFS Ensembles are wanting to turn Gonzalo back west into Maine
The only fishermen that would lose pots are the ones that don't deserve to be out there. Even if they lost an outdrive or sprang a leak, as long as they are local someone in the community will pull the traps for minimal to no return. Other than that the rivers will be full for the salmon. Where is the concern? Broken beach homes make great lobster homes.
Quoting 564. stormpetrol:

Gonzalo may go more west than previously expected, trough broken off and retracting more north!


That would be good for Bermuda!
~110 kt it is (I was close), pressure really dropped from 970 though. Thought it'd be closer to 960 than 950, Bermuda might have to put up with more than what Fabian wrought.
Gonzalo should surpass Edouard for most ACE this year, and should bring 2014 ACE up to a respectable level.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Gonzalo should surpass Edouard for most ACE this year, and should bring 2014 ACE up to a respectable level.


For sure if it stays at or above Cat 3 strength for the next 72 hours as the discussion forecasts.

I see Gonzalo is at the Devil's longitude.
Quoting 570. ILwthrfan:



Ana looks to be sliding a bit west southwesterly of projected path. Though subtle, it could play roll in intensity of the cyclone with the increased energy available. Waters are definitely warmer southwest of it's projected path.


Which is why Oahu needs to stay on high alert.

Quoting 554. BahaHurican:

Irene was a sprawler, though, and IIRC had a gentler pressure gradient. That pinhole eye isn't just there for Taz to call it....


I think you're right, compare Katrina at landfall with Andrew (nearly the same min pressure), just observation
Quoting 556. Gearsts:



I just don't know anymore.


Despite the low frequency pattern favoring an El Nino, it's going to be difficult to see sustained atmospheric support via MJO thru WWBs, its far too transient at the moment (although it's usually faster than normal in an El Nino anyway). I'd personally like to see the return period come up over the next few months, right now we're running well below the "typical" spectral peak of the MJO ~30-60 days. This pattern favors a slow, moist Kelvin Wave mode, which plays right into the hands of the global models which usually project the MJO in as a slow, low frequency Kelvin Wave anyway because they struggle in handling the MJO's top-heavy convective structure and stratiform in the wake of an upward pulse...

(Generally in these diagrams, Blue=rising air, Red=sinking)
Oct 11 2014 Equatorial Wave VP 200


Sep 18 2014 Equatorial Wave VP 200


In the preceding pulse, twin strong CCKWs over the Pacific in late June & July kept the MJO occupied predominantly in phases 6-8 (hence the advertised "retrograde" noted in RMM & VPM alike), which led to a prolonged spike in Atmospheric Angular Momentum that heavily contributed to the stretch of cooler weather that enveloped the central-eastern US during that portion of the summer...





This temperature anomaly map above matches up well with the JJA tri-monthly US temperature composites for MJO phases 6-8...
Quoting 563. BaltimoreBrian:

Stormpetrol I don't think the NHC will promote Gonzalo to Cat 4 based on that data.

I'm guessing 935 mb / 120 kts at the peak.

As I said data supports 125mph and that's what it was!
Quoting 563. BaltimoreBrian:

Stormpetrol I don't think the NHC will promote Gonzalo to Cat 4 based on that data.

I'm guessing 935 mb / 120 kts at the peak.

I'll be a little brave, and say 937 MB with 125 knots at peak. ;)
What's great about Bermuda being under a Hurricane Watch, is that we will now once again have updates on Gonzalo every three hours. Which should allow for the NHC to pinpoint a peak intensity a lot easier.
why is there very little mention of intensifying Tropical Storm Ana? I'd say that is a very interesting situation that a hurricane could potentially pass through the length of the Hawaiian island chain.
Bermuda Public Forecast
Issued At: 11:30 pm Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Lo : 23°C / 73°F
Hi : 27°C / 80°F
Public Synopsis:

A hurricane watch is now in effect as Hurricane Gonzalo remains a threat to Bermuda. Conditions will begin to deteriorate overnight Thursday and preparations should be made in advance of these increasing winds. Seas will be rapidly building up to 30 feet on Friday as winds reach hurricane force. Please continue to monitor our products for future updates.
Good Evening everyone.

Our cold front and Gonzalo. Note the purple shading behind the actual cold front in places like Illinois and south into Mississippi and Alabama, had this been January or February that would likely be snowfall due to the cut-off low pressure behind the front.



A detailed description of the purpose of infrared enhancements.

Meteorologists use color enhanced imagery as an aid in satellite interpretation. The colors enable them to easily and quickly see features which are of special interest. Usually they look for high clouds or areas with a large amount of water vapor.

In an infrared (IR) image cold clouds are high clouds, so the colors typically highlight the colder regions. The bar on the right side of the image indicates the pixel brightness values for the corresponding color. The intensity value represents emitted infrared radiation. The intensity of a pixel is recorded as a digital number (for example, in these images the numbers range from 0 to 255.) You can determine temperatures using one of the formulas below:

If B > 176, T = 418 - B; or
if B <= 176, T = 330 - (B/2)

Note that the resulting temperatures are in Kelvin. To calculate the resulting Kelvin temperature to Fahrenheit:
(K - 273.15) x 1.8 + 32.00. To calculate the resulting Kelvin temperature to Celsius: C = K - 273.

(B = Brightness value; T = Temperature; F = Fahrenheit; C = Celsius)

NOAA Geostationary Satellite Server
Did the NHC get rid of that table that showed percentages of strength probabilities at different times?
Quoting 581. lobdelse81:

why is there very little mention of intensifying Tropical Storm Ana? I'd say that is a very interesting situation that a hurricane could potentially pass through the length of the Hawaiian island chain.
We been talking about it some. It's hard to ignore a storm in the ATL busting cat 4 open and headed for Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.... but we're not ignoring Ana, either. Amazing to see another potential hurricane threat on the Big Island....
Small eye on Gonzalo.

Surprisingly good looking storm for a relatively high pressure.

It sure is GatorWX. I can't remember seeing a storm categorized as Cat 3 with a pressure of 970 mb before.

I'm sure Webberweather53 or TropicalAnalystwx13 can tell us what Atlantic hurricane had the highest pressure at Cat 3.
Quoting 585. VAbeachhurricanes:

Did the NHC get rid of that table that showed percentages of strength probabilities at different times?

Yep.
Not quite so good on microwave.

Ana


ADT is decent.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 984.8mb/ 72.2kt
Quoting 590. BaltimoreBrian:

It sure is GatorWX. I can't remember seeing a storm categorized as Cat 3 with a pressure of 970 mb before.

I'm sure Webberweather53 or TropicalAnalystwx13 can tell us what Atlantic hurricane had the highest pressure at Cat 3.


That was Ana. Gonzalo is 954 mb. Ana is still at 996.
91L

Quoting 590. BaltimoreBrian:

It sure is GatorWX. I can't remember seeing a storm categorized as Cat 3 with a pressure of 970 mb before.

I'm sure Webberweather53 or TropicalAnalystwx13 can tell us what Atlantic hurricane had the highest pressure at Cat 3.

Looks like it's *officially* Hurricane Dolly from 1953 with a pressure of 995mb. Obviously suspect though.

In more recent history, Hurricane Floyd in 1981 had 100kt winds with a 981mb pressure.
Quoting 585. VAbeachhurricanes:

Did the NHC get rid of that table that showed percentages of strength probabilities at different times?


ive been looking for that this season. I guess they got rid of it, since i can't find it on the
NHC's site
Quoting 590. BaltimoreBrian:

It sure is GatorWX. I can't remember seeing a storm categorized as Cat 3 with a pressure of 970 mb before.

I'm sure Webberweather53 or TropicalAnalystwx13 can tell us what Atlantic hurricane had the highest pressure at Cat 3.
I think Ethel bottomed out at 970 mb. pressure as a Cat. 5.
Cody speaks the truth! And you produced amazingly fast!

Quoting GatorWX:
91L

Little engine that could. I give it 30/40.
601. BDAwx
Quoting 402. BahaHurican:

I noted NHC upped the 5-day potential.... okay, it wasn't by much, but it's still holding a little hope out there. The big question is whether it's going to get hitched up in the same front that's due to sweep Gonzalo away, I suppose. I think it's too vigorous a system so far to just disappear....

Did people prepare very much for Fay? I think a lot of times we look just at the category of the system and don't take into account whether it is strengthening or weakening....


You raise a good point, many Bermudians were indeed guilty of believing the "its just a tropical storm" fallacy. So some of the damages like that to the boats could have been avoided or minimized somewhat.
But again, tree damage, power poles downed and roof damage is generally NOT a matter of how one prepares and it was those damages that really stood out to me. Its one thing to put your lawn furniture away to prevent that becoming a missile, and boarding up your windows (or closing the storm shutters) but how do you stop your roof from blowing off? Or stop the utility pole from snapping/blowing over? I should also point out that neither Florence, nor Bertha, nor Igor really did that much damage aside from coastal erosion and some isolated stuff due to squalls and possible tornadoes/waterspouts in the rain bands.

But yeah Gonzalo is very likely gonna add to Fay's damage.
thank goodness for the cold front..





Good night all..


Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 12m 12 minutes ago

Not the best init for Hurricane Gonzalo in 00Z GFS -- 993 mb
Perhaps a little sumpin sumpin down in BOC in a few days. Has model support, but seems vague as to what they're portraying.



Regarding Gonzalo, looks like it's going to be a very close call if not a direct hit for Bermuda. Given the fact it has a very small eye, it's very possible it'll undergo an ewrc as noted by NHC. I hope so. Right now it looks like a dangerous situation for them. The CMC is the only model I've seen that takes it east of Bermuda. The GFS brings it very close and being west of the island, they'd be on the dirty side of things. Still a fairly long way out, but it certainly appears it'll be a best a close call.

Hawaii, Ana....crazy if that happens. I would suspect it wouldn't be as strong as indicated in the vicinity of the islands. If so, I'll be pretty amazed. This has been an interesting year for both the Atlantic and Pacific. Hasn't been too destructive though and that's what we all wish for.

*had to edit.. lol, not sure why I called it Humberto. Getting late!
606. SuzK
Not a prediction but I didn't see it posted tonight and I think its new news. Of course no one knows what will happen for certain, but it sure makes exciting reading lol

Link
Quoting 585. VAbeachhurricanes:

Did the NHC get rid of that table that showed percentages of strength probabilities at different times?

They didn't get rid of it completely.
They replaced the old probability charts which were quite good with a new and improved probability product that conveys 1/2 the info in double the space...and it's presented in a format that's harder to understand.
That's progress!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


For sure if it stays at or above Cat 3 strength for the next 72 hours as the discussion forecasts.

I see Gonzalo is at the Devil's longitude.

Have not heard that phrase before?
Devil's longitude is where and why?
Quoting 594. GatorWX:

91L


This one for sure have been a fighter, not sure if its going to develop or not but it has survive more than I expect.
Quoting 608. lat25five:


Have not heard that phrase before?
Devil's longitude is where and why?



The Devil's Longitude is 66.6 W. I just made it up :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


The Devil's Longitude is 66.6 W. I just made it up :)


LMAO excellent.
Quoting 610. BaltimoreBrian:



The Devil's Longitude is 66.6 W. I just made it up :)
So what do you call 77.7 W.? The Winner's Longitude? :D
How about the Lucky Longitude :)
Quoting 613. BaltimoreBrian:

How about the Lucky Longitude :)
I like that one better...and on that note have a good night everyone, stay safe and heed your warnings wherever you are posting from and if being threatened by severe weather. I know we have some good bloggers from Bermuda and up in the Canadian Maritimes I hope you all are prepared.


000
WTNT33 KNHC 150849
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH ON
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. SWELLS WILL REACH
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
The Big Picture [only small]



I notice Gonzalo still hasn't rounded out that CDO.... and also that the activity associated with the front is not as vigorous as it was yesterday.



The trough still looks pretty vigorous on WV imagery, though.


Our front seems to extend all the way to the Pacific... where 92E is poised to become the next WPac NS....

000
WTNT43 KNHC 150850
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

The small eye of Gonzalo has become a little less distinct in
infrared satellite imagery overnight. It is possible that an eye
wall replacement has begun, but there has been no recent microwave
images to assess the current structure of the inner core. There
has been little change in the subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates overnight and the initial wind speed
remains 110 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is en route to the hurricane, which should
provide a better assessment of the intensity of Gonzalo this
morning.

A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicate that there is
still some light to moderate southerly shear over the hurricane, but
the shear is expected to decrease today. This favors
intensification, however difficult-to-predict eye wall replacement
cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity during the next
day or two. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification
today followed by little change in strength in 24 to 48 hours.
After that time, increasing southwesterly shear, drier air, and
cooler sea surface temperatures should cause weakening. Gonzalo is
expected to become extratropical by day 4, and the global models
indicate that it will remain a powerful extratropical low through
the end of the forecast period.

Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. The forecast track
reasoning remains unchanged. The hurricane should turn north-
northwestward and northward during the next day or so as it moves
around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn
north-northeastward and accelerate ahead of a mid-latitude trough
that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. The
track guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, however
the updated NHC forecast has been shifted a little west of
the previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 22.9N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 24.0N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 25.5N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH

36H 16/1800Z 27.3N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 29.9N 67.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 37.5N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 48.5N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 54.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
Ana:



WTPA45 PHFO 150914
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014


ANA REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE 0507Z SSMIS AND A 0643Z AMSU PLATFORMS AVAILABLE
ON THE FNMOC/NRL WEB SITES INDICATE THE LLCC MAY BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 10 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR ANA ARE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...WHILE
THE SAB ESTIMATE IS 4.0/65 KT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND INTENSE LIGHTNING OBSERVED NEAR THE INNER CORE OF
ANA...THE INTENSITY IS BEING NUDGED UP TO 60 KT TOWARD THE SAB
ESTIMATE AS A COMPROMISE.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR
275 DEGREES...AT 8 KT. ANA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED ALONG THIS COURSE
BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A MINOR SHIFT TO
THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT 24 AND 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER ANA TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE FACT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KT BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW THAT ANA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
INSTEAD...ANA WILL BE IN MINIMAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF ANA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE ON ANA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH ANA
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...THE CIRA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES ALONG
THE PROJECTED TRACK SHOW THE VALUE WILL RAMP UP DURING THE 48 TO 72
HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF OCEAN WARMTH AVAILABLE
TO THE SYSTEM AS ITS WINDS ARE INCREASING. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. ALSO...THERE MAY BE SOME INTERRUPTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IF IT INTERACTS WITH ANY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 14.1N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.3N 147.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 15.6N 152.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 155.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.9N 157.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 21.6N 158.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
Well posted, Bahahurican, lest you think no one is looking at, or seeing, your inputs here. :)

Jo
Quoting 624. flibinite:

Well posted, Bahahurican, lest you think no one is looking at, or seeing, your inputs here. :)

Jo
Mornin' ... I often come here in the morning and read informative posts and view useful imagery posted by fellow bloggers.... I just thought I'd return the favor ... lol ...

well far out in time but both Euro and GFS put a Low in the southern gulf around 10 days out..
Quoting 628. LargoFl:

well far out in time but both Euro and GFS put a Low in the southern gulf around 10 days out..
I'm starting to think the isthmus crossing entity may become a reality...
well I guess THIS will be the Low in the gulf we will need to watch...
Quoting 629. BahaHurican:

I'm starting to think the isthmus crossing entity may become a reality...
yes I was hoping it would be gone this morning..its still there.
It's raining!
Picked up a quick .4 this morning with a heavy shower.
We need as much as we can get here. Still only .89" for the month in my weather station.

I haven't checked the City of Fort Myers, but they were at .57" for the month yesterday.

Off Topic - I can't believe there's another case of Ebola in the U.S.
We're supposed to trust our medical system to keep this disease from spreading?
well lets see over time if it manages to survive the mexico crossing into the gulf..sometimes they don't.
Quoting 632. Sfloridacat5:

It's raining!
Picked up a quick .4 this morning with a heavy shower.
We need as much as we can get here. Still only .89" for the month in my weather station.

I haven't checked the City of Fort Myers, but they were at .57" for the month yesterday.

Off Topic - I can't believe there's another case of Ebola in the U.S.
We're supposed to trust our medical system to keep this disease from spreading?
good for you folks..i know you've been missing out on the rains lately....and yes..im wondering just how many people the worker had contact with all this time whew.
Quoting LargoFl:
well I guess THIS will be the Low in the gulf we will need to watch...


Last night on TWC the "Expert" showed the low moving from the Pacific into the BOC. But he said that "there's nothing to worry about" as if the low wasn't going to do anything.
That's what I took from it.
Time will tell.
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014

ANA REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE 0507Z SSMIS AND A 0643Z AMSU PLATFORMS AVAILABLE
ON THE FNMOC/NRL WEB SITES INDICATE THE LLCC MAY BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 10 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR ANA ARE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...WHILE
THE SAB ESTIMATE IS 4.0/65 KT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND INTENSE LIGHTNING OBSERVED NEAR THE INNER CORE OF
ANA...THE INTENSITY IS BEING NUDGED UP TO 60 KT TOWARD THE SAB
ESTIMATE AS A COMPROMISE.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR
275 DEGREES...AT 8 KT. ANA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED ALONG THIS COURSE
BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A MINOR SHIFT TO
THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT 24 AND 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER ANA TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE FACT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KT BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW THAT ANA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
INSTEAD...ANA WILL BE IN MINIMAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF ANA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE ON ANA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH ANA
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...THE CIRA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES ALONG
THE PROJECTED TRACK SHOW THE VALUE WILL RAMP UP DURING THE 48 TO 72
HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF OCEAN WARMTH AVAILABLE
TO THE SYSTEM AS ITS WINDS ARE INCREASING. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. ALSO...THERE MAY BE SOME INTERRUPTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IF IT INTERACTS WITH ANY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 14.1N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.3N 147.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 15.6N 152.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 155.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.9N 157.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 21.6N 158.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
Quoting 635. Sfloridacat5:



Last night on TWC the "Expert" showed the low moving from the Pacific into the BOC. But he said that "there's nothing to worry about" as if the low wasn't going to do anything.
That's what I took from it.
Time will tell.
well whatever it becomes..GFS over time puts it into the big bend of florida..but way too early..lets see if it survives the crossing first.
im sure glad this Ebola virus isn't airborne wow..
Quoting 635. Sfloridacat5:



Last night on TWC the "Expert" showed the low moving from the Pacific into the BOC. But he said that "there's nothing to worry about" as if the low wasn't going to do anything.
That's what I took from it.
Time will tell.


That low will cross over too much terrain. I can't see how it will survive intact once it reaches the BOC.
Good morning and afternoon, everyone. I'm told yesterday was an absolutely beautiful day, it did look very pretty out the window. Today is supposed to be another beautiful day. It's 48 degrees right now with a high of 78 expected.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), broccoli & cheddar omelet, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting LargoFl:
im sure glad this Ebola virus isn't airborne wow..


If you saw these kids at school. They sneeze all over everything. All the students come in contact with everything.
Students also go straight from class to lunch without washing their hands. It doesn't matter because most students don't wash their hands anyway.

If the disease did enter a community, schools should be shut down right away. That's the place where something could spread like a wild fire.

snot.finds.a.way
Quoting 631. LargoFl:

yes I was hoping it would be gone this morning..its still there.
A storm in the GoM this late in the season is practically unheard of....
646. MahFL
A lot of convection down there too....

Quoting 632. Sfloridacat5:

It's raining!
Picked up a quick .4 this morning with a heavy shower.
We need as much as we can get here. Still only .89" for the month in my weather station.

I haven't checked the City of Fort Myers, but they were at .57" for the month yesterday.

Off Topic - I can't believe there's another case of Ebola in the U.S.
We're supposed to trust our medical system to keep this disease from spreading?
This is the same medical system so many have been fighting to keep in disarray.... whether inadvertently or on purpose.... [sigh]
Northern half of the state is clearing out.
Rain is movinig into S. Florida.
Quoting 641. rmbjoe1954:



That low will cross over too much terrain. I can't see how it will survive intact once it reaches the BOC.
If it comes over Tehuantepec, it may survive. I'm not so sure about further west.

Quoting 642. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, everyone. I'm told yesterday was an absolutely beautiful day, it did look very pretty out the window. Today is supposed to be another beautiful day. It's 48 degrees right now with a high of 78 expected.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), broccoli & cheddar omelet, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Morning, Aislinn ...
Quoting 643. Sfloridacat5:



If you saw these kids at school. They sneeze all over everything. All the students come in contact with everything.
Students also go straight from class to lunch without washing their hands. It doesn't matter because most students don't wash their hands anyway.

If the disease did enter a community, schools should be shut down right away. That's the place where something could spread like a wild fire.


AND they go to school when they're sick. No matter what. Parents are there to make sure whiners and snifflers [literally] are there to share their germs. It's how most viruses spread through our communities - the kids give it to each other, and then to their relatives at home... rainy weather doesn't help, because it means more indoor time for germs to love you.....
It's been great, but I gotta run.... ya'll have a good day.... and wash your hands! LOL


Ebola has a very low rate of infection. Health care workers are at the most risk due to sustained contact over longer periods of time than the general public. We should be questioning the hospital's policies and how well the workers were trained. The only way for this to spread in this type of environment is breach of protocol or lack or protocol as Ebola must be transmitted to a new person through broken skin or through mucus membrane exposure.



It really seems most of the country (except pacific NW and NE) is going to dry out the next 7 days. Once the front moves through south FL there will be an extended period of dry weather. Despite some doom and gloom from 10 day models, the weather looks great the next week.





Smallest eye ive seen since Wilma...
Quoting 630. LargoFl:

well I guess THIS will be the Low in the gulf we will need to watch...


Looks like I'll be the "storm chaser" for this one here in Puerto Escondido. Hopefully it won't get organised quickly or we'll have another Carlotta on our hands. None of the models are very bullish on strength....yet.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Smallest eye ive seen since Wilma...


One thing contributing to the small eye is that Gonzalo is a very small hurricane.

Washi will be excited to see this on the GFS (372 hours)



Winter is coming :)

Recon is checking out Gonzalo now, we'll see what they find. Probably not much change.
Clouds look gross to the west, drizzling a bit for now
Wilma was a beast at her peak. I would guess she was at least 3 times the size of Gonzalo.
Quoting 618. BahaHurican:





Very Charley-esque eye. Thank goodness that little bit of shear is keeping him lopsided or he would probably be 145-155mph right now.
Quoting 656. MAweatherboy1:

Washi will be excited to see this on the GFS (372 hours)



Winter is coming :)

Recon is checking out Gonzalo now, we'll see what they find. Probably not much change.
Lol.All I'll take from that is a cold end to october and nothing more.
Quoting 652. WxGuy2014:

It really seems most of the country (except pacific NW and NE) is going to dry out the next 7 days. Once the front moves through south FL there will be an extended period of dry weather. Despite some doom and gloom from 10 day models, the weather looks great the next week.






That's bull as the weather in C & S FL looks rainy infact I am getting worried about the amount of time this low gets trapped in the Gulf starting Tuesday as some areas of FL are going to get excessive rainfall if this scenario pans out and no these are not 10 day runs anymore more like 6 to 7 day runs that last thru day 10 to 15. So it appears that an extended period of heavy rains appear to be in the cards for C & S FL.

06Z GFS has what appears to be a warm front with deep tropical moisture pushing north up the FL Penisula on Tuesday. This front or trough appears to be attached to this tropical low in the Gulf.



Here is the Euro below same scenario for Tuesday except the Euro has a stronger surface low in the Gulf compared to the GFS.



Then you have this being issued from the CPC. So it does appear we have a decent shot at TS Hanna in the Gulf early next week.



Quoting 658. Sfloridacat5:

Wilma was a beast at her peak. I would guess she was at least 3 times the size of Gonzalo.



How much by you in Fort Myers last night as you guys got some catching up to do?

Good Morning..

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1h 1 hour ago

Southern gulf place to watch for tropical trouble next week
Quoting 651. Naga5000:


Ebola has a very low rate of infection. Health care workers are at the most risk due to sustained contact over longer periods of time than the general public. We should be questioning the hospital's policies and how well the workers were trained. The only way for this to spread in this type of environment is breach of protocol or lack or protocol as Ebola must be transmitted to a new person through broken skin or through mucus membrane exposure.






You are not a medical professional, the knowledge on Ebola is rather incomplete. I'm not a medical professional either, but I don't make blanket pronouncements on Ebola's modes of transmission.

The assumption that college educated medical workers, who took a real science based major in college, are incompetent and can't follow a protocol, protects the CDC. Second Duncan worker has Ebola now. Two people, who knew they were dealing with a high mortality rate virus broke protocol? Or maybe the protocol is so difficult it can't be followed even by trained professionals, or it is inadequate.


See below, no proof it is air transmissible, but really no proof it isn't.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/0 9/commentary-health-workers-need-optimal-respirato ry-protection-ebola
Quoting 664. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h 1 hour ago

Southern gulf place to watch for tropical trouble next week


No idea where it would go, but I'm old enough, I watched Opal on TWC.
Quoting 651. Naga5000:

Ebola has a very low rate of infection. Health care workers are at the most risk due to sustained contact over longer periods of time than the general public. We should be questioning the hospital's policies and how well the workers were trained. The only way for this to spread in this type of environment is breach of protocol or lack or protocol as Ebola must be transmitted to a new person through broken skin or through mucus membrane exposure.





Hospital policies are more or less the same nationwide. National standards regarding universal protocols are all part of the annual required education for all patient care personnel. It's unfortunate when a professional fails to adequately follow protocol is when they get in trouble.
Quoting 667. rmbjoe1954:



Hospital policies are more or less the same nationwide. National standards regarding universal protocols are all part of the annual required education for all patient care personnel. It's unfortunate when a professional fails to adequately follow protocol is when they get in trouble.


Failure to follow protocol is also what they are blaming the Ebola on in the two nurses.

The African medical workers, the American and European missionaries, two nurses in Spain, and two medical workers in the US, all dumbasses who wouldn't follow protocol dealing with a deadly virus?

You really think so?

Or maybe the protocols themselves are inadequate...
Quoting 666. EdMahmoud:



No idea where it would go, but I'm old enough, I watched Opal on TWC.
Opal was a impressive October storm.I remember seeing some of the videos and photos on my T.V screen.Can't believe that was 19 years ago.
Quoting 664. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1h 1 hour ago

Southern gulf place to watch for tropical trouble next week


And the models stall it in the Gulf too for many days. Those counting on the Dry Season here in FL will have to wait a couple more weeks it appears as all of next week looks wet here.
Quoting 668. EdMahmoud:


Failure to follow protocol is also what they are blaming the Ebola on in the two nurses.

The African medical workers, the American and European missionaries, two nurses in Spain, and two medical workers in the US, all dumbasses who wouldn't follow protocol dealing with a deadly virus?

You really think so?

Or maybe the protocols themselves are inadequate...


It's human failure or at least protective equipment was breached.
52ºF (11º) bitterly cold degrees here, the first really cold morning of Winter 2014-2015 in Houston.
BAMD model pretty much says it all for 92E. We will have to keep an eye out for this one.
Quoting 672. rmbjoe1954:



It's human failure or at least protective equipment was breached.


And you know the protocols were adequate, how? What if (maybe yes, maybe no) Ebola can be carried in micro-droplets in the vicinity of a coughing or sneezing patient, and just a mask is inadequate? With ballpark 3/4 fatality rate, I'd insist on respirators.

And if Ebola is caught disrobing, and removing the protective gear is that difficult, perhaps a Clorox-water solution misting of workers after shift might be a good idea.

I'm not a doctor, and don't play one of TV. Remember, the UN's WMO said last Summer that transport of Ebola by air transport was 'extremely unlikely'. The 'experts' are learning as they go.

The good news, as far as I know, none of Duncan's family or the ambulance drivers are not showing symptoms, or they are almost out of the woods as far as having contracted Ebola.
Quoting 675. EdMahmoud:


And you know the protocols were adequate, how? What if (maybe yes, maybe no) Ebola can be carried in micro-droplets in the vicinity of a coughing or sneezing patient, and just a mask is inadequate? With ballpark 3/4 fatality rate, I'd insist on respirators.

And if Ebola is caught disrobing, and removing the protective gear is that difficult, perhaps a Clorox-water solution misting of workers after shift might be a good idea.

I'm not a doctor, and don't play one of TV. Remember, the UN's WMO said last Summer that transport of Ebola by air transport was 'extremely unlikely'. The 'experts' are learning as they go.

The good news, as far as I know, none of Duncan's family or the ambulance drivers are not showing symptoms, or they are almost out of the woods as far as having contracted Ebola.


I work in healthcare and am well aware of universal precautions.

As far as Ebola a person has 21 days before they show symptoms.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


And the models stall it in the Gulf too for many days. Those counting on the Dry Season here in FL will have to wait a couple more weeks it appears as all of next week looks wet here.


We'll the dry season will have to take a break down here.

We are currently in a very dry period. In 14 days we only had .57" of rain.
With today's rain, I think we will be up to .81" for the month.
Then we'll be dry until at least next Tuesday.

That will be 21 days with less than 1" of rain.

Hopefully we will get some tropical weather to break this dry pattern we are in down here.
Quoting 665. EdMahmoud:



You are not a medical professional, the knowledge on Ebola is rather incomplete. I'm not a medical professional either, but I don't make blanket pronouncements on Ebola's modes of transmission.

The assumption that college educated medical workers, who took a real science based major in college, are incompetent and can't follow a protocol, protects the CDC. Second Duncan worker has Ebola now. Two people, who knew they were dealing with a high mortality rate virus broke protocol? Or maybe the protocol is so difficult it can't be followed even by trained professionals, or it is inadequate.


See below, no proof it is air transmissible, but really no proof it isn't.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/0 9/commentary-health-workers-need-optimal-respirato ry-protection-ebola


I teach kids medical sociology on their way to becoming healthcare professionals, which includes knowledge of illness and disease. Ebola is not air transmissible. The most likely explanation is that people broke protocol because of poor training or simple mistake. The nurse in Spain admitted to touching her face with her gloved hand after dealing with feces.

Doctor's and nurses aren't super human, they make mistakes just like you and I, and I am in no way saying they are at fault either. Hospitals are largely not prepared for this and are reluctant to take extreme precaution.

"Nurses at a Texas hospital where a Liberian man died of Ebola described a confused and chaotic response to his arrival in the emergency room, alleging in a statement Tuesday that he languished for hours in a room with other patients and that hospital authorities resisted isolating him.

In addition, they said, the nurses tending him had flimsy protective gear and no proper training from hospital administrators in handling such a patient.

The allegations, made under unusual circumstances, provided the first detailed portrait of Thomas Eric Duncan's second trip to the emergency room, where he arrived by ambulance days after doctors had sent him home with a fever, a headache, abdominal pain and a prescription for antibiotics." Link

No idea if Euro/GFS BoC develops, or where it goes, but water still warm off Florida...

The history of Ebola control has been in rural areas where it is more easily tracked. The current rampant outbreak in SW Africa is out of control because it has entered dense city areas where it spreads very quickly. And the complete lack of heath facilities there just make it almost impossible to stop right now. CDC estimates 1.4 million could be affected there by early next year. If this were to ever make it into a US city or God forbid a school or schools in a big city the CDC would be overwhelmed. The follow everyone possibly affected protocol and isolation rooms available would be overwhelming. An outbreak is a real possibility in America. It's certainly not a given, but these are troubling times with many unknowns.
Escape that brutal cold, northerners and people in Texas.

Biketoberfest is this week in the Daytona Beach / Volusia County area. Weather forecast is ideal through the weekend. Northeast Florida is the Hurricane-Free Zone ®.

See if you can get your Harley started and head on down. Remove the muffler before you get here. Don't worry, no one will notice the noise.
Every morning when I'm on the blog nothing but stuntin.

Link
Recon is reporting concentric eyewalls with Gonzalo, a sign of an EWRC, which we've been expecting. Pressure looks to have fallen to around 950mb but winds may have come down. First pass only reported winds up to about 105mph, but they still have a good deal of the storm to go. 125mph is likely generous though.
BTW, even if Ebola is not air transmissible, any protocol where so many trained professionals who know they have over a 50% mortality rate of death if infected are still breaking it somehow suggests the protocol is not a realistic one.


Duncan apparently did not infect anyone but two hospital employees, BTW. His family members, ambulance staff, etc., followed no protocols, and are nearing the end of their isolation period, apparently without symptoms.

And the sicker the patient, the higher the virus load in bodily fluids. Maybe in aerosols from coughing and sneezing, maybe not. Hence the likely reason people who worked on Duncan as he neared death are the ones infected.
Quoting 677. Sfloridacat5:



We'll the dry season will have to take a break down here.

We are currently in a very dry period. In 14 days we only had .57" of rain.
With today's rain, I think we will be up to .81" for the month.
Then we'll be dry until at least next Tuesday.

That will be 21 days with less than 1" of rain.

Hopefully we will get some tropical weather to break this dry pattern we are in down here.


A potential of a Tropical Storm stalling in the Central Gulf will do the trick for sure. I am getting worried for SE FL from Cape Canaveral down to West Palm Beach as with this pattern a heavy convergent band may set up and dump what could be many inches of rain. I won't throw a number out there as some may think its nuts.

Quoting 682. EdwardinAlaska:

Escape that brutal cold, northerners and people in Texas.

Biketoberfest is this week in the Daytona Beach / Volusia County area. Weather forecast is ideal through the weekend. Northeast Florida is the Hurricane-Free Zone ®.

See if you can get your Harley started and head on down. Remove the muffler before you get here. Don't worry, no one will notice the noise.




Having all four seasons isn't all bad, and we don't have six month Alaska/Minnesota winters. And yes, the rebuilt Popo Playa Party Pad will probably stand on Galveston Island for 20 plus more years.



2009 December Houston snow- 25 mm of snow!




October 2014 still active in the tropics:

Gonzalo the 6th hurricane, and second CAT3 in the ATL ... is spinning toward Bermuda.

Bermuda is still cleaning up from Hurricane FAY.

91L might develop (over time), in the central ATL.

And finally, the SW Gulf might need to be watched next week, for possible tropical activity!

The Atlantic Basin has not shut down yet in 2014!!!!

Also have to mention .. Ana, located in the Epac, is threatening to become a hurricane, and is headed for Hawaii!
I watched a CNN documentary of the 25th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

I used to ride the 880 to Golden Gate fields to bet on the horses. Left the Bay Area less than a year before the Earthquake.


Another natural disaster that never happens in Southeast Texas.
Quoting 689. Stormwatch247:

October 2014 still active in the tropics!

Gonzalo the 6th hurricane, and second CAT3 in the ATL ... is spinning toward Bermuda.

Bermuda is still cleaning up from Hurricane FAY.

91L might develop (over time), in the central ATL.

And finally, the SW Gulf might need to be watched next week, for possible tropical activity!

The Atlantic Basin has not shut down yet in 2014!!!!

Also have to mention .. Ana, located in the Epac, is threatening to become a hurricane, and is headed for Hawaii!






And 3 weeks ago I really though we had a chance at the dullest hurricane season since 1983. Sometimes it is good to be wrong.
Is anyone having issues in viewing the blog..in both firefox and chrome my view looks messed up..
Wow. People there probably still remember what they were doing the day they saw snow.

Here in Ormond Beach we're in the midst of our autumn. Take a look at this massive spider in my back yard. What do you see in her web? Leaves. Leaves that have turned a rich brownish color and fallen. Ah, autumn in Florida....and west of me there are rolling hills.....like Currier & Ives only better....



Quoting 688. EdMahmoud:




Having all four seasons isn't all bad, and we don't have six month Alaska/Minnesota winters. And yes, the rebuilt Popo Playa Party Pad will probably stand on Galveston Island for 20 plus more years.



2009 December Houston snow- 25 mm of snow!






Quoting 681. EdMahmoud:




Sociology is not a real science, and you are not a doctor, and if you read the link, actual doctors and scientists think common sense and caution dictates respiratory protection.

Just like studying the sociology of why some people don't believe AGW doesn't make you a climate scientist or meteorologist.



EDIT TO ADD- the Spanish nurses (2 of them) knew they were dealing with Ebola from the get go (patients evacuated from Africa), and Pham worked with Duncan, she likely was not infected when he was in the emergency room getting sent home with antibiotics


Not a real science? Hilarious. You should be a stand up comedian. Thanks for the daily dose of ignorance!
I got a message saying one of those images in the below comments had malware..
696. flsky
Driving down from Alaska?
Quoting 682. EdwardinAlaska:

Escape that brutal cold, northerners and people in Texas.

Biketoberfest is this week in the Daytona Beach / Volusia County area. Weather forecast is ideal through the weekend. Northeast Florida is the Hurricane-Free Zone ®.

See if you can get your Harley started and head on down. Remove the muffler before you get here. Don't worry, no one will notice the noise.





something to watch here
It's this area that could be Hanna in the Gulf

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad and ill-defined area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are somewhat conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form within this system over the
next few days. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
forms, shower activity is likely to spread northward or
northwestward toward and across the southwestern coast of Mexico
over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
If it's one of mine, let me know and I'll remove it. I posted those from my WunderPhotos, so I assume they're safe, but you never know.

Quoting 695. ncstorm:

I got a message saying one of those images in the below comments had malware..

No, I did that last spring. I live in Ormond Beach now.
Quoting 696. flsky:

Driving down from Alaska?


Well that was a fun morning. I need to go for a bit though. I need to finish editing my not real paper, so it can be sent to a not real journal, and go into my not real job at the not real University in the not real College of Sciences and collect a not real paycheck.

Have a good day!
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

The small eye of Gonzalo has become a little less distinct in
infrared satellite imagery overnight. It is possible that an eye
wall replacement has begun, but there has been no recent microwave
images to assess the current structure of the inner core. There
has been little change in the subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates overnight and the initial wind speed
remains 110 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is en route to the hurricane, which should
provide a better assessment of the intensity of Gonzalo this
morning.

A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicate that there is
still some light to moderate southerly shear over the hurricane, but
the shear is expected to decrease today. This favors
intensification, however difficult-to-predict eye wall replacement
cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity during the next
day or two. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification
today followed by little change in strength in 24 to 48 hours.
After that time, increasing southwesterly shear, drier air, and
cooler sea surface temperatures should cause weakening. Gonzalo is
expected to become extratropical by day 4, and the global models
indicate that it will remain a powerful extratropical low through
the end of the forecast period.

Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. The forecast track
reasoning remains unchanged. The hurricane should turn north-
northwestward and northward during the next day or so as it moves
around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn
north-northeastward and accelerate ahead of a mid-latitude trough
that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. The
track guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, however
the updated NHC forecast has been shifted a little west of
the previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 22.9N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 24.0N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 25.5N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 27.3N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 29.9N 67.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 37.5N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
Hawaii better be watching this. looks like this system is strengthening.

Hurricane GONZALO
8:00 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2014
Location: 23.1°N 67.7°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
So Bermuda gets b-slapped again .?

Quoting 701. Naga5000:

Well that was a fun morning. I need to go for a bit though. I need to finish editing my not real paper, so it can be sent to a not real journal, and go into my not real job at the not real University in the not real College of Sciences and collect a not real paycheck.

Have a good day!


I'm sure it is a real paper, but if you don't take 20 hours of integral and differential calculus and diff. e.q, 8 hours each of physics and chemistry, p-chem, thermo, and programming classes in college are you really a scientist?

My brother has a PhD is English lit, he is published in peer reviewed journals, is he a scientist?
Good morning blog. The area in the Gulf that we need to watch next week what time frame are we talking here? 5 to 7 days out, with a possible monsoon set up over s to s ctrl fla. Storms that come up out of that area in Oct. never seem too friendly, but then again it may just be a rain event we shall see. I think we would be OK with 8-10 in of rain over anything even moderately over TS force.
30 hours of geology classes, and I'm not even a geologist...
tropical storm ana is strengthening right now
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:
Hawaii better be watching this. looks like this system is strengthening.



Hi Scott-
What is amazing is that new arrivals to my area have not experienced a tropical system and are really wishing for one or are indifferent to a storm that they would not evacuate if common sense dictated such an action. I must admit I wanted to experience a hurricane also when I arrived to Florida in 1987.

Hurricanes Erin, Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma took care of that for me.

If ever one threatens I will be gone in a heartbeat with Plan B.
i am getting ready for the hurricane to come by way!!
Quoting 705. hydrus:

So Bermuda gets b-slapped again .?


This isn't going to be pretty for them.
EdwardinAlaska..

WU won't let me quote you..

The blog was messed up so I couldn't tell whose image it was..I guess between you and the other Ed there was an image posted with a virus but I guess removed as the blog is now back to its original view but still hiccuping with technical issues still..
Quoting 691. EdMahmoud:




And 3 weeks ago I really though we had a chance at the dullest hurricane season since 1983. Sometimes it is good to be wrong.
October looking to be the most active month for Atlantic 2014 Hurricane season~! We will see what happens. Wishing the best for Bermuda and Hawaii, hope they are ready.

1983 was slow, but Hurricane Alicia was the exception, coming ashore as a CAT3 near Galveston, TX. it followed I-45 northward to Houston, TX, slamming downtown with hurricane force winds, and blasting out windows of downtown skyscrapers.
Quoting 707. weaverwxman:

Good morning blog. The area in the Gulf that we need to watch next week what time frame are we talking here? 5 to 7 days out, with a possible monsoon set up over s to s ctrl fla. Storms that come up out of that area in Oct. never seem too friendly, but then again it may just be a rain event we shall see. I think we would be OK with 8-10 in of rain over anything even moderately over TS force.


JB from weatherbell said that anyone from New Orleans over to FL needs to watch the Gulf next week. Seems likely we will have either a hybrid type system or even a pure tropical system in the C Gulf this time next week.
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:

Hawaii better be watching this. looks like this system is strengthening.



CPHC has Ana doing an end-around by the big island and hooking up toward Oahu. If that holds, Hawaii and preparations will be really big news for this weekend.
Quoting 707. weaverwxman:

Good morning blog. The area in the Gulf that we need to watch next week what time frame are we talking here? 5 to 7 days out, with a possible monsoon set up over s to s ctrl fla. Storms that come up out of that area in Oct. never seem too friendly, but then again it may just be a rain event we shall see. I think we would be OK with 8-10 in of rain over anything even moderately over TS force.
Could it be another JUAN of 1985 ???
With TS Ana expected to skirt the southern edge of the Big Island before making a northerly curve toward Oahu, here's the Honolulu weekend forecast:

Saturday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Strong and damaging winds, with a northeast wind 18 to 28 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Frequent showers. High near 86. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 50 to 60 mph becoming southeast 23 to 33 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Ouch.

Quoting 698. StormTrackerScott:

It's this area that could be Hanna in the Gulf

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad and ill-defined area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are somewhat conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form within this system over the
next few days. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
forms, shower activity is likely to spread northward or
northwestward toward and across the southwestern coast of Mexico
over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.





not if it gets name the Trudy in the E pac 1st and has there are NEW rules about cross over it will not be geting the name H storm it will still be Trudy when it cross over in the gulf
Quoting 718. Stormwatch247:

Could it be another JUAN of 1985 ???


Some of the Euro ensembles take this Gulf system to the Louisiana Coast then shifts it south then stalls it out. Ensembles are very confused from both the Euro and GFS this morning. They all seem to agree we will get Hanna but where will she go or does she stall for a week before moving over FL. Lot of unknowns but what is known is that a system in the Gulf will shove Deep Tropical moisture over C & S FL next week.
Quoting 693. EdwardinAlaska:

Wow. People there probably still remember what they were doing the day they saw snow.

Here in Ormond Beach we're in the midst of our autumn. Take a look at this massive spider in my back yard. What do you see in her web? Leaves. Leaves that have turned a rich brownish color and fallen. Ah, autumn in Florida....and west of me there are rolling hills.....like Currier & Ives only better....





I used to explore islands all along the S.W. Florida coast decades ago..Was on an island called Buck Key. It was so dense one had to crawl most the time, and it took an hour to reach the middle. It opened up into a marvelous bright white floor made of shells. growing out of it were giant Spanish Bayonets, planted there centuries earlier by Indians ( probably Caloosa ). On our way out, a friend told me to look up, and to my awe and surprise, hundreds of huge Banana Spiders over our heads, all lookin down at us as if they were going to attack. they were massive because of the huge food supply. It was an amazing sight.
Quoting 720. Tazmanian:





not if it gets name the Trudy in the E pac 1st and has there are NEW rules about cross over it will not be geting the name H storm it will still be Trudy when it cross over in the gulf


Really I didn't know that. Thanks buddy learned something new today. I always though that if a system moved into our basin it would get a name from our list for the Atlantic Basin
The International Space Station will track over the Atlantic around noon (Eastern time) and again around 1:30 and 3:00  p.m., if I'm understanding correctly. One of those passes might have nice views of Gonzalo.

Follow it here.for streaming video.
Quoting 716. StormTrackerScott:



JB from weatherbell said that anyone from New Orleans over to FL needs to watch the Gulf next week. Seems likely we will have either a hybrid type system or even a pure tropical system in the C Gulf this time next week.
well some area's in florida still need more rain,if it comes this way,it surely might help them..our dry season is just about here now...any rain is welcome
Wow, forget what I said about Gonzalo's wind going down; recon just got some 125-130 mph winds and extrapolated pressure of 946mb, and they aren't quite to the center, so it could be slightly lower.
Quoting 723. StormTrackerScott:



Really I didn't know that. Thanks buddy learned something new today. I always though that if a system moved into our basin it would get a name from our list for the Atlantic Basin



nop they dont do that any more the olny way it would get a new name is if the storm fully falls a part and fourms a new low in the gulf but has long has the storm stays intace it will keep the name it got in the E PAC
Good Morning
Just maybe they can get some snow from Tropical Storm Ana
Link
Recon just found a double eyewall:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds
should limit significant development of this system while it
moves generally northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
Absolutely stunning weather for the Tallahasssee area through mid next week. I'll take the dry weather and sunny skies.

Link

From the NWS office here, dry through next Wednesday. No rain in the forecast.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally
through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will
remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold
steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of
year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle
50s.

Link


Look closely at the eye. Gonzalo turned almost due north.
Quoting 730. Thing342:

Recon just found a double eyewall:




ERC.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, forget what I said about Gonzalo's wind going down; recon just got some 125-130 mph winds and extrapolated pressure of 946mb, and they aren't quite to the center, so it could be slightly lower.


Peak SFMR:

116 knots
(~ 133.5 mph)

Flight level winds:

123 knots
(~ 141.5 mph)
Quoting Neapolitan:
With TS Ana expected to skirt the southern edge of the Big Island before making a northerly curve toward Oahu, here's the Honolulu weekend forecast:

Saturday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Strong and damaging winds, with a northeast wind 18 to 28 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Frequent showers. High near 86. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 50 to 60 mph becoming southeast 23 to 33 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Ouch.



That would be incredible if Hawaii is hit with two storms in one year, and this one looks to be even more dangerous if it hits the populated island of Oahu. I was there a year ago and i would hate to see any of it damaged. Such a beautiful place, and its likely that no one would know how to prepare since they have not been in a situation like this before, if it plays out.
Honolulu/Waikiki ill equipped for a hurricane; even Cat 1. Very bad news if a major ever hit. I shutter to think of the damage to the south side of the island if a major hit. The inland flooding on the entire island could be catastrophic as the storm lifted over the mountains. So many communities on steep hillsides. Parts of UH Manoa campus would be flooded and destroyed.

Close to 1 Million people on Oahu; an island you can circumnavigate (by car) in 3-4 hours. The entire center of the island is mountain, so basically everyone lives on or at the bottom of a hillside.

Quoting 717. HarryMc:


CPHC has Ana doing an end-around by the big island and hooking up toward Oahu. If that holds, Hawaii and preparations will be really big news for this weekend.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 13:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2014
Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 13:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2316'N 6748'W (23.2667N 67.8W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,640m (8,661ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the NE (53) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 151 at 123kts (From the SSE at ~ 141.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NE (55) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10C (50F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16C (61F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12C (54F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 123kts (~ 141.5mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NE (55) from the flight level center at 13:04:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 240 at 18kts (From the WSW at 21mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PEA SIZED HAIL IN OUTER EYEWALL W SIG LIGHTNING
Saturday morning paddle out Publics, Number Threes, Kaisers, Ala Mo Bowl or Big Lefts. See you there. Bring your 7'6"

Quoting 719. Neapolitan:

With TS Ana expected to skirt the southern edge of the Big Island before making a northerly curve toward Oahu, here's the Honolulu weekend forecast:

Saturday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Strong and damaging winds, with a northeast wind 18 to 28 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Frequent showers. High near 86. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 50 to 60 mph becoming southeast 23 to 33 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Ouch.


Gonzalo's undergoing an EWRC, but this new outer eyewall is developing to be extremely intense with the recon reporting pea sized hail and significant lightning there. What is more, EWRC tends to cause storms to expand their wind fields. My guess is whenever the inner eyewall collapses Gonzalo will strengthen into a Category 4 (if it's not already one right now based on those SFMR readings) and have a 20-25 NM eye.
http://bernews.com/2014/10/live-blog-updates-subtro pical-storm-fay/

to follow activity in Bermuda as Gonzalo as it makes its approach!
blog is messed up again..there has to be a virus on this page..I'll be back later..
Hopefully the center follows the Kauai Channel and splits the uprights between Oahu and Kauai. Iniki wobbled into the channel on its approach toward Oahu. Unfortunately, it whacked Kauai. Storms seem to be influenced by the very strong current that runs that channel. I believe it is approx. 85 miles wide.


Quoting 736. WxGuy2014:



That would be incredible if Hawaii is hit with two storms in one year, and this one looks to be even more dangerous if it hits the populated island of Oahu. I was there a year ago and i would hate to see any of it damaged. Such a beautiful place, and its likely that no one would know how to prepare since they have not been in a situation like this before, if it plays out.
Quoting 739. CybrTeddy:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 13:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2014
Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 13:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23�16'N 67�48'W (23.2667N 67.8W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,640m (8,661ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the NE (53�) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 151� at 123kts (From the SSE at ~ 141.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NE (55�) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10�C (50�F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16�C (61�F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12�C (54�F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 123kts (~ 141.5mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NE (55�) from the flight level center at 13:04:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 240� at 18kts (From the WSW at 21mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PEA SIZED HAIL IN OUTER EYEWALL W SIG LIGHTNING


The inner eye is 4 nautical miles in diameter, impressive.

Good chance we have a Cat 4 at 11am. With an eyewall replacement cycle underway, it's unlkely to maintain that intensity long. Good news for Bermuda.
Here is what is going on in St Marteen in the aftermath of Gonzalo moving thru. One dead reported as a fisherman died in his boat.

Link
Quoting 734. TimTheWxMan:



ERC.


Likely why he stayed at 110 kt at the last advisory, probably won't see it as a 4 until the ewrc is complete (is it eye wall or eyewall?)

I'm doing a blog on Hurricane Hazels' anniversary, anyone know how to put a thumbnail instead of linking out of wunderground to youtube?
Quoting 745. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The inner eye is 4 nautical miles in diameter, impressive.

Good chance we have a Cat 4 at 11am. With an eyewall replacement cycle underway, it's unlkely to maintain that intensity long. Good news for Bermuda.

As CybrTeddy mentioned, the new eyewall is already pretty intense (lightning and hail inside) and is only 25 nm wide. I'd imagine that Gonzalo will restrengthen pretty quickly one the inner eyewall is gone.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is leaning too heavily on satellite intensity estimates with Ana. Although there haven't been any recent passes, a 5z microwave pass showed the low-level circulation displaced on the northeastern edge of the convective mass. In addition, a 07:35z ASCAT pass showed a small area of 40kt winds; even accounting for the low instrument bias, anything above 45kt is probably pushing it.


08L/MH/G/C3
Quoting 705. hydrus:

So Bermuda gets b-slapped again .?




It'll be bad for them, but I think Newfoundland could see a lot of damage if the forecast track pans out. Seems to be better agreement on that now whereas Nova Scotia was also more of an area of concern.
Quoting 747. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is no virus


then whats going on? I have rebooted..its not on my end..none of my other web pages are messing up..WU is doing this funky encryption in both in firefox and chrome every 5-10 minutes..and I got a pop up message that one of the images posted on here was malware..

I'm not a technical guru with computers Keep but I do know how to read very well when I get messages and there is something on this page that is causing issues only on this site..

Instead of declaring there is no virus how about fix whatever the problem is please?

thanks and appreciated :)
I was just wondering, last week a lot of folks where talking about the MJO, is it still on the way? Is it going to be like the other MJO pulses we had this summer, like it was a weak one?

Sheri
Resolution not the biggest but Bermuda is just east of the worst of Gonzo 06z


Potential strike area for Gonzalo. I think it could be higher

Quoting 741. CybrTeddy:

Gonzalo's undergoing an EWRC, but this new outer eyewall is developing to be extremely intense with the recon reporting pea sized hail and significant lightning there. What is more, EWRC tends to cause storms to expand their wind fields. My guess is whenever the inner eyewall collapses Gonzalo will strengthen into a Category 4 (if it's not already one right now based on those SFMR readings) and have a 20-25 NM eye.


Hopefully the EWRC will take a while and by the time it finishes Gonzalo is in less favourable conditions. But if it completes it quickly, it could continue to strengthen to perhaps a 140-150mph category 4. Especially as lightning in the eye wall indicates strengthening. This is looking rather bad for Bermuda.
more needed rain for northern california

Quoting 749. Thing342:


As CybrTeddy mentioned, the new eyewall is already pretty intense (lightning and hail inside) and is only 25 nm wide. I'd imagine that Gonzalo will restrengthen pretty quickly one the inner eyewall is gone.

That's a possibility, though we'll have to see just how much weakening occurs throughout today as drier air attempts to get into the core. Shear will definitely be low for further intensification if the process doesn't take too long.
another soaking on tap for el paso.......less than a tenth....WHOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Quoting 680. DeepSeaRising:

The history of Ebola control has been in rural areas where it is more easily tracked. The current rampant outbreak in SW Africa is out of control because it has entered dense city areas where it spreads very quickly.


*facepalm*

No it doesn't. Influenza spreads quickly. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 25 million people in the first 25 weeks. When all was said and done, 50 million people died and over 500 million had been infected. That was in one year.

That is what a pandemic looks like.

Ebola does not spread quickly. The current outbreak began in December and has infected less than 10,000 people, even in the cramped and squalid condition in some areas of western Africa. The only reason it infected so many to begin with is because of the practices and beliefs in the affected areas (direct handling of the dead, drinking the water they use to wash the bodies, mistrust of health professionals, lack of sanitation, etc.).

Quoting 680. DeepSeaRising:
And the complete lack of heath facilities there just make it almost impossible to stop right now.


Actually, it will stop itself. Ebola has a fast incubation, high death rates, and is difficult to spread. It will burn itself out.

Quoting 680. DeepSeaRising:
CDC estimates 1.4 million could be affected there by early next year.


From the CDC:

Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.

We know how to control and eventually stop the epidemic. Halting the epidemic requires placing up to 70% of patients into either an Ebola Treatment Unit or in a community setting in which the risk of disease transmission is reduced and safe burials are provided.

So yes, if things continue as usual with no intervention or preventative measures then it is projected that 1.4 million could become infected in the region by next year. But that number can be greatly reduced just by taking some basic (and to us common sense) steps.

Quoting 680. DeepSeaRising:
If this were to ever make it into a US city or God forbid a school or schools in a big city the CDC would be overwhelmed. The follow everyone possibly affected protocol and isolation rooms available would be overwhelming. An outbreak is a real possibility in America. It's certainly not a given, but these are troubling times with many unknowns.


No it isn't, and mindless panic isn't going to make that any more realistic nor is it going to solve anything. Ebola is a hemorrhagic fever spread by direct contact through infected material (blood, feces, etc.). It's not black magic. The guy who brought it over here was on a plane full of people, and after that was walking around and hanging out in a highly populated area (Dallas, Texas). He went to a hospital full of people. Twice. And yet only one person was infected (a nurse who was directly handling infectious material).

Meanwhile we have a soon-to-be-hurricane threatening Hawaii and and a Hurricane that may end up hitting Bermuda. How about we focus on those?
Quoting 767. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's a possibility, though we'll have to see just how much weakening occurs throughout today as drier air attempts to get into the core. Shear will definitely be low for further intensification if the process doesn't take too long.

Gonzalo has been pretty good about blocking drier air out from its core. How much it weakens due to the EWRC is a function of how long it takes.
Even smaller this pass.

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
72 hour shear is intense in the gulf.....

If you think there is a virus I would contact IT support that handles WU servers, they would be able to diagnose any issues. Right now all is fine and clear on my end. I would run a virus scan if I were you ncstorm. Probably, need to clear your cookies or cache. I would suggest using malwarebytes to scan for any malware on your computer.
*facepalm*

No it doesn't. Influenza spreads quickly. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 25 million people in the first 25 weeks. When all was said and done, 50 million people died and over 500 million had been infected. That was in one year.



just remember....you have a higher chance of catching and dying from a cold than catching ebola.......someone sneezes around me...and i'm gonna freak :-)
Quoting 753. ncstorm:



then whats going on? I have rebooted..its not on my end..none of my other web pages are messing up..WU is doing this funky encryption in both in firefox and chrome every 5-10 minutes..and I got a pop up message that one of the images posted on here was malware..

I'm not a technical guru with computers Keep but I do know how to read very well when I get messages and there is something on this page that is causing issues only on this site..

Instead of declaring there is no virus how about fix whatever the problem is please?

thanks and appreciated :)
well for me everything is fine..i got rid of chrome,for some reason I had trouble with it..everything is ok now.
cmc gives a little life to 91l

ecmwf says 914l is a dud.....

From the Daily Herald
"Gonzalo exacts a heavy toll on boats, boat owners"

Link

Article excerpt:
Over on the Boulevard de France break-water, a cruising catamaran Rostock was sitting on top of the rocks; completely crushed. The owner, a German retired vacationer who had been anchored in the bay since May, was seen trying to salvage what little he had left in the way of possessions. He said he had not been injured.

"My wife was ashore so I was alone on the boat," he related. "The boat started drifting at 5:30pm and at one point my instruments showed 75 knots of wind. I could see nothing, it was a white out. My neighbour in another boat drifted onto the rocks before I did. I have no insurance, it's an old boat; I have lost everything. I was in shock and the Gendarmes sent me to the hospital for the night."
Quoting 767. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's a possibility, though we'll have to see just how much weakening occurs throughout today as drier air attempts to get into the core. Shear will definitely be low for further intensification if the process doesn't take too long.


I'm not sure if dry air will be much of an issue though. It has amazing outflow and as we saw early in its life, dry air certainly didn't keep it from strengthening as it passed over the Caribbean islands. It'll certainly be interesting to see how the EWRC will affect Gonzalo.
gfs has no love for 91l either


navgem is a nope also....

If this makes it into the Gulf this week, it could be something to really watch. This time of year, these systems often move west or WNW.



Recon appears to be headed home. However, there is a NOAA plane in Gonzalo right now.

Quoting Xyrus2000:


*facepalm*

No it doesn't. Influenza spreads quickly. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 25 million people in the first 25 weeks. When all was said and done, 50 million people died and over 500 million had been infected. That was in one year.

That is what a pandemic looks like.

Ebola does not spread quickly. The current outbreak began in December and has infected less than 10,000 people, even in the cramped and squalid condition in some areas of western Africa. The only reason it infected so many to begin with is because of the practices and beliefs in the affected areas (direct handling of the dead, drinking the water they use to wash the bodies, mistrust of health professionals, lack of sanitation, etc.).



Actually, it will stop itself. Ebola has a fast incubation, high death rates, and is difficult to spread. It will burn itself out.



From the CDC:

Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.

We know how to control and eventually stop the epidemic. Halting the epidemic requires placing up to 70% of patients into either an Ebola Treatment Unit or in a community setting in which the risk of disease transmission is reduced and safe burials are provided.

So yes, if things continue as usual with no intervention or preventative measures then it is projected that 1.4 million could become infected in the region by next year. But that number can be greatly reduced just by taking some basic (and to us common sense) steps.



No it isn't, and mindless panic isn't going to make that any more realistic nor is it going to solve anything. Ebola is a hemorrhagic fever spread by direct contact through infected material (blood, feces, etc.). It's not black magic. The guy who brought it over here was on a plane full of people, and after that was walking around and hanging out in a highly populated area (Dallas, Texas). He went to a hospital full of people. Twice. And yet only one person was infected (a nurse who was directly handling infectious material).Meanwhile we have a soon-to-be-hurricane threatening Hawaii and and a Hurricane that may end up hitting Bermuda. How about we focus on those?



I thought this morning they said a second health care worker at the hospital has become infected?
As someone mentioned before, this is not good. Even a Cat 1 can be serious for the islands.

HWRF has a cat 2 100mph

GFDL has it at 94mph

Quoting 787. Grothar:

As someone mentioned before, this is not good. Even a Cat 1 can be serious for the islands.


Quoting 790. SFLWeatherman:

HWRF has a cat 2 100mph




Considering the HWRF nailed the intensity of Gonzalo, I would be alert if I were in Hawaii.
Quoting 787. Grothar:

As someone mentioned before, this is not good. Even a Cat 1 can be serious for the islands.


Greetings Gro..From what I hear, they have not finished picking up from the last storm.
Quoting 787. Grothar:

As someone mentioned before, this is not good. Even a Cat 1 can be serious for the islands.


Hopefully the the storm's forward momentum will increase.
thanks GT and Largo..It comes and goes with the view I get..

I dont have a virus on my laptop as the message told me not to click on image and I didnt..I also just ran a virus check and nothing..right now I'm good..if it happens again I'll take a screen shot and post it..
This is an image of Fabian which struck Bermuda in 2003

We have ourselves the first Category 4 hurricane since 2011.
Quoting 790. SFLWeatherman:

HWRF has a cat 2 100mph

GFDL has it at 94mph





Not good. I have been to Bermuda, but I have never been to Hawaii. I do know that smaller islands such as Bermuda can deal with tidal surge better because the water can move around the island more easily and surges may not be as bad, as say a strong system piling up water on the Texas coast.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 151454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

Link
Gonzalo is the first category 4 in the Atlantic since Ophelia, October 2011.
Quoting 798. Grothar:




Not good. I have been to Bermuda, but I have never been to Hawaii. I do know that smaller islands such as Bermuda can deal with tidal surge better because the water can move around the island more easily and surges may not be as bad, as say a strong system piling up water on the Texas coast.
The big island is also very mountainous, which can exacerbate wind and flood damage. I hope they prepare and heed warnings if given.
Storm sparks shopping frenzy


Crowds of people queue and shop for hurricane supplies at Gorhams Ltd as the Island prepares for Hurricane Gonzalo. (Photo by Mark Tatem)


Hardware stores were inundated with shoppers yesterday as the Island prepares for the arrival of Hurricane Gonzalo.

Thousands descended on Masters and Gorham%u2019s to pick up emergency supplies.

SAL in Devonshire was also packed with residents determined to make sure they were as prepared as possible for what could be a Category 3 hurricane. Such was the demand for generators that Masters and Gorhams ran out yesterday morning.

Masters general manager Mark Stearns said it had been very hectic.

We sold out of generators this morning [Tuesday] and items like batteries, tarp and ropes have been flying off the shelf, he added.

Everything that is on the hurricane list has been going fast and furious.

People are definitely nervous about this storm, especially after the last one. Without a doubt people will be ready and properly prepared for this one.

We are trying to restock as quickly as we can to make sure people can buy what they need. It really has been crazy in the store today.

Gorhams was also jam-packed with shoppers as residents stocked up on essential hurricane products.

On Monday the store sold more than 30 generators and thousands of residents headed to the Pembroke store yesterday.

Director Henry Durham said: It has been chaotic from the moment we opened. We completely sold out of generators on Monday and we have seen a lot of gas containers go in the last 24 hours.

After the scare at the weekend people are really paying attention this time.

We have seen a lot big lamps and fuel containers go, too.

Its been all hands on deck in the store. All the office staff have been helping out on the floor and we have brought extra cashiers in.

SAL manager Morris Moniz said the Hermitage Road store, where customers receive a 20 per cent discount on Tuesdays, had been chaotic as people bought emergency supplies for the weekend.

He was amazed some customers had made the journey and braved the queues yesterday to buy non-hurricane related items, including paint and outdoor furniture.

Its been very busy, we sold out of generators on Monday, Mr Moniz said. People have been stocking up on ropes, batteries, buckets, flashlights, table lanterns general storm supplies.

We sold a lot of plywood we're not sold out, there's a little bit left.

We've had everybody working, we called everyone in.

I think that with the fright Sunday gave us and that fresh in people's minds, people are preparing.

It's going to be a hectic Wednesday but we're running out of most supplies.

I dont think people are panicking, this has the potential to be a Category 3 hurricane.

The only benefit to Sunday's storm is that it took down a lot of the big trees that were weak so there will be less debris.

Quoting 770. Xyrus2000:



*facepalm*

No it doesn't. Influenza spreads quickly. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 25 million people in the first 25 weeks. When all was said and done, 50 million people died and over 500 million had been infected. That was in one year.

That is what a pandemic looks like.

Ebola does not spread quickly. The current outbreak began in December and has infected less than 10,000 people, even in the cramped and squalid condition in some areas of western Africa. The only reason it infected so many to begin with is because of the practices and beliefs in the affected areas (direct handling of the dead, drinking the water they use to wash the bodies, mistrust of health professionals, lack of sanitation, etc.).



Actually, it will stop itself. Ebola has a fast incubation, high death rates, and is difficult to spread. It will burn itself out.



From the CDC:

Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.

We know how to control and eventually stop the epidemic. Halting the epidemic requires placing up to 70% of patients into either an Ebola Treatment Unit or in a community setting in which the risk of disease transmission is reduced and safe burials are provided.

So yes, if things continue as usual with no intervention or preventative measures then it is projected that 1.4 million could become infected in the region by next year. But that number can be greatly reduced just by taking some basic (and to us common sense) steps.



No it isn't, and mindless panic isn't going to make that any more realistic nor is it going to solve anything. Ebola is a hemorrhagic fever spread by direct contact through infected material (blood, feces, etc.). It's not black magic. The guy who brought it over here was on a plane full of people, and after that was walking around and hanging out in a highly populated area (Dallas, Texas). He went to a hospital full of people. Twice. And yet only one person was infected (a nurse who was directly handling infectious material).

Meanwhile we have a soon-to-be-hurricane threatening Hawaii and and a Hurricane that may end up hitting Bermuda. How about we focus on those?


CDC says this could double ever two weeks in SW Africa in the coming months, with 1.4 affected by early next year. So your wrong, CDC disagrees with you. This won't just magically contain itself. This has only historically been contained in rural areas where the area can be completely closed off. This has never made it to major cities with large populations with little to no health care. So 1.4 million, according the CDC could be affected by early next year. This would make this a problem that would then spread to other parts of Africa and the world. Including other US cities. If we don't make much larger efforts immediately in SW Africa this could be an increasing issue for years and we may have a real outbreak in a major Western city. This is a full blown crisis in SW Africa and it's no where close to being resolved due to a litany of reasons. Minimize this if you want, but your just flat out wrong. Even if this reaches half of 1.4 million by next year, this will be a spreading increasing issue; not one that is about to extinguish itself. Either the world gets serious now about making big moves in SW Africa immediately or we'll be dealing with this for years.
Quoting 753. ncstorm:



then whats going on? I have rebooted..its not on my end..none of my other web pages are messing up..WU is doing this funky encryption in both in firefox and chrome every 5-10 minutes..and I got a pop up message that one of the images posted on here was malware..

I'm not a technical guru with computers Keep but I do know how to read very well when I get messages and there is something on this page that is causing issues only on this site..

Instead of declaring there is no virus how about fix whatever the problem is please?

thanks and appreciated :)


Try using a little plugin for chrome called privacy badger, it managed to prevent some of these security warnings for me.
Xyrus, this is projected, at current containment rate, to double in number every two weeks in the coming months. That's spreading quickly and quickly exasperates into faster spreading rates down the road. This is what the CDC says. So to say this isn't spreading quickly is not accurate. We're in uncharted waters, not even the CDC or the best infectious control experts in the world really know where this is going or what the real spread rate will or will not be.
I wonder if 92E is going to end up in the gulf
Extra crews from Caribbean utility companies could be called in to help local power provider Belco deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Gonzalo.

The company, which is a member of the Caribbean Electric Utility Service Corporation, said it was in talks with CARILEC to boost the local workforce already hard taxed by recovery efforts in the wake of Tropical Storm Fay — which knocked out power for nearly 28,000 of the total 35,500 metered customers.

Caribbean crews came to assist after the Island was lashed in 2003 by Hurricane Fabian — and Belco has sent staff to help out in the Caribbean, most recently five years ago in Cayman. Asked how many extra workers could come to boost local efforts, a Belco spokeswoman said: “In terms of numbers and skills, we are asking for 12 linemen. They would come with tools and their personal protection equipment, and would be working alongside our crews.”

About 3,700 homes still had no electricity by late yesterday afternoon — but work on restoring power is likely to continue into the weekend.

And, with a hurricane threatening to strike in the meantime, the remaining customers without electricity could be in for a long wait. Although more customers should have electricity back as of this morning, Belco said the remaining outages involve individual customers or small branches of the electrical supply network, and the work required would be “arduous and time-consuming”.

read the full article here:
I think the point that Xyrus is trying to make in regards to the current outbreak is that as it currently stands, it pales in comparison to outbreaks in the past. The influenza outbreak was just as deadly, way easier to spread and went on a worldwide rampage killing millions in a very short period of time. What is needed is to not go completely off the deep end in terms of panic. Form a plan, and let it evolve to meet the current needs. I think that why the outbreak has not been contained, and I hate to be blunt, is that the right people have not been affected yet. When it gets to that point, suddenly there will be more than enough money and resources.

Xyrus, this is projected, at current containment rate, to double in number every two weeks in the coming months. That's spreading quickly and quickly exasperates into faster spreading rates down the road. This is what the CDC says


every two weeks is just not true.........folks might just want to read the cdc report for themselves
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Gonzalo has strengthened a little. The maximum 700 mb flight-level
wind reported was 123 kt and the highest SFMR wind observation was
116 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased to
115 kt, making Gonzalo a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. This is the first category 4 hurricane in the
Atlantic basin since Ophelia in 2011. The aircraft data and
microwave images clearly show concentric eyewalls, with the
inner radius of maximum wind now only about 4-5 n mi from the
center.

Smoothing through the trochoidal oscillation of the eye yields an
initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A high amplitude trough over
the eastern United States is expected to slowly move eastward during
the next couple of days, and will erode the subtropical ridge that
is currently steering Gonzalo. This change in the large-scale
pattern should cause the hurricane to turn northward by early
Thursday and north-northeastward Thursday night and Friday, likely
bringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days. Beyond 48 hours, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate generally northeastward. The
track model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official
forecast is near the GFS and ECMWF solutions and only slightly to
the left of the previous one.

Given the evidence of concentric eyewalls, and with the inner
eyewall already about as small as it can get, the current period of
intensification could be about over. The hurricane will likely
fluctuate in strength while the environmental conditions remain
favorable during the next day or two. After that time, weakening
is forecast when the hurricane moves into an atmosphere of
increasing southwesterly shear and drier air, and over much colder
water. Post-tropical transition will likely occur in 3 to 4 days
when the cyclone is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream current. Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 23.5N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 24.6N 68.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 26.3N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 28.6N 68.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 31.6N 66.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 40.6N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
Quoting 780. JNFlori30A:

From the Daily Herald
"Gonzalo exacts a heavy toll on boats, boat owners"

Link

Article excerpt:
Over on the Boulevard de France break-water, a cruising catamaran Rostock was sitting on top of the rocks; completely crushed. The owner, a German retired vacationer who had been anchored in the bay since May, was seen trying to salvage what little he had left in the way of possessions. He said he had not been injured.

"My wife was ashore so I was alone on the boat," he related. "The boat started drifting at 5:30pm and at one point my instruments showed 75 knots of wind. I could see nothing, it was a white out. My neighbour in another boat drifted onto the rocks before I did. I have no insurance, it's an old boat; I have lost everything. I was in shock and the Gendarmes sent me to the hospital for the night."



Well, CaribBoy got what he wished for.
Quoting 796. Grothar:

This is an image of Fabian which struck Bermuda in 2003


They took a hit from Hurricane Emily in 1987..



Since the storm was not expected to be strong when it passed Bermuda, islanders were caught off guard by the 90 mph winds. Cars and boats were affected the most, though some houses experienced severe damage during the storm's passage as well. Hurricane Emily caused $50 million in damage to the island, though no one was killed. About 230 buildings lost their roofs and 16 people were injured due to winds gusting in excess of 112 mph . The local airport was shut down as a large portion of its roof was blown off during the storm. Several cars and boats were flipped by the storm and a cruise ship carrying 700 people slipped from its moorings. Before the storm's landfall, officials in Bermuda cut power to roughly 90% of the island to protect the power grid. There were also unconfirmed reports of tornadoes associated with the storm. Emily was the strongest hurricane to hit Bermuda since the 1948 season
Haven't been on the blog in a loooooong time, 135mph cane in the Atlantic, first time in a long time
Went to Playa Del Carmen last week on the Yucatan for first time, awesome down there, blue turquoise green water, white sand.... got to fly over the GOM
08L/MH/G/C4
Gonzalo is a CAT4, yet the 12Z GFS shows the system as a 1001mb storm at 18 hours?
Quoting 809. ricderr:


Xyrus, this is projected, at current containment rate, to double in number every two weeks in the coming months. That's spreading quickly and quickly exasperates into faster spreading rates down the road. This is what the CDC says


every two weeks is just not true.........folks might just want to read the cdc report for themselves





817. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


lol...now that's funny
12Z GFS shows basically a direct hit on Bermuda in 54 hours.
Quoting 808. tlawson48:

I think the point that Xyrus is trying to make in regards to the current outbreak is that as it currently stands, it pales in comparison to outbreaks in the past. The influenza outbreak was just as deadly, way easier to spread and went on a worldwide rampage killing millions in a very short period of time. What is needed is to not go completely off the deep end in terms of panic. Form a plan, and let it evolve to meet the current needs. I think that why the outbreak has not been contained, and I hate to be blunt, is that the right people have not been affected yet. When it gets to that point, suddenly there will be more than enough money and resources.
the truth hurts...
Quoting 813. RitaEvac:

Haven't been on the blog in a loooooong time, 135mph cane in the Atlantic, first time in a long time
I was still in Tennessee back then!
waters over 80 degrees around hawaii this time of year
And 30's at night on Hawaii
Quoting 823. ricderr:

waters over 80 degrees around hawaii this time of year
Quoting 803. DeepSeaRising:



CDC says this could double ever two weeks in SW Africa in the coming months, with 1.4 affected by early next year. So your wrong, CDC disagrees with you. This won't just magically contain itself. This has only historically been contained in rural areas where the area can be completely closed off. This has never made it to major cities with large populations with little to no health care. So 1.4 million, according the CDC could be affected by early next year. This would make this a problem that would then spread to other parts of Africa and the world. Including other US cities. If we don't make much larger efforts immediately in SW Africa this could be an increasing issue for years and we may have a real outbreak in a major Western city. This is a full blown crisis in SW Africa and it's no where close to being resolved due to a litany of reasons. Minimize this if you want, but your just flat out wrong. Even if this reaches half of 1.4 million by next year, this will be a spreading increasing issue; not one that is about to extinguish itself. Either the world gets serious now about making big moves in SW Africa immediately or we'll be dealing with this for years.


'Big moves' like what? Bombing out said countries, to prevent it from possibly spreading elsewhere quicker?

Has Aussie been back on yet? I've not seen him post since the big storms the other day, but maybe I've missed them...


Ugliest cat 4 storm ever.
I for one do not want a hurricane in my backyard next week coming up from the gulf. Wilma comes to mind and I'm good with not having another. Having said that do you think if we all rush over to Fla west coast next week and stand by the shore with some big fans we can push this thing whatever it may be to Texas, afterall they need the rain Florida does not.......
Lol maybe! :P
Quoting 828. weaverwxman:

I for one do not want a hurricane in my backyard next week coming up from the gulf. Wilma comes to mind and I'm good with not having another. Having said that do you think if we all rush over to Fla west coast next week and stand by the shore with some big fans we can push this thing whatever it may be to Texas, afterall they need the rain Florida does not.......
Tonight dewpoints should drop into the 40's and 50's across all of central Florida behind the cold front.
Tonight dewpoints should drop into the 40's and 50's across all of central Florida behind the cold front.
Quoting 814. RitaEvac:

Went to Playa Del Carmen last week on the Yucatan for first time, awesome down there, blue turquoise green water, white sand.... got to fly over the GOM
That's where we honeymooned about 20 years ago.. loved it! Stayed at the all inclusive resorts on the edge of town. First taste of tropical humidity.. my new bride did not mind that I sailed every afternoon.
Quoting 803. DeepSeaRising:



CDC says this could double ever two weeks in SW Africa in the coming months, with 1.4 affected by early next year. So your wrong, CDC disagrees with you. This won't just magically contain itself. This has only historically been contained in rural areas where the area can be completely closed off. This has never made it to major cities with large populations with little to no health care. So 1.4 million, according the CDC could be affected by early next year. This would make this a problem that would then spread to other parts of Africa and the world. Including other US cities. If we don't make much larger efforts immediately in SW Africa this could be an increasing issue for years and we may have a real outbreak in a major Western city. This is a full blown crisis in SW Africa and it's no where close to being resolved due to a litany of reasons. Minimize this if you want, but your just flat out wrong. Even if this reaches half of 1.4 million by next year, this will be a spreading increasing issue; not one that is about to extinguish itself. Either the world gets serious now about making big moves in SW Africa immediately or we'll be dealing with this for years.



The Nigerian experience with THIS outbreak suggests it can indeed be stopped and they appear to have
succeeded with no new cases for 30 days

http://qz.com/278819/talking-to-the-doctor-who-he lped-stop-ebola-in-nigeria/




We at Puerto Rico are very lucky. The extra-terrestrials have a base here at El Yunque Rain Forest and they always turn their blower on in high to keep us safe from storms.
Quoting 784. Grothar:

If this makes it into the Gulf this week, it could be something to really watch. This time of year, these systems often move west or WNW.






Not buying the cross over scenario. There are 10,000 ft mountains and thousands of miles of land to cross with all of those tracks. I could see if it went through the isthmus but none of the models are showing that track.
Tonight dewpoints should drop into the 40's and 50's across all of central Florida behind the cold front.



love the perspective......those would be high here
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo expected to track north-northeastward tomorrow - potential impacts over Newfoundland/Eastern Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Gonzalo intensified quickly during the past two days and is moving away from the caribbean. Gonzalo now a major hurricane is forecast to intensify to category-4 intensity today. A cold front extending well into the subtropics will guide the hurricane northward near Bermuda, potentially drawing moisture over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday. The centre of the storm may track anywhere from just east of Cape Breton to well offshore over the Grand Banks - which is approximately a 600-kilometres span of uncertainty. Timing of the storm's possible impact over land or closest offshore approach will be in the late Friday to late Saturday timeframe.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing regular bulletins this afternoon since the storm is expected to at least affect our offshore marine district.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty

Quoting 838. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo expected to track north-northeastward tomorrow - potential impacts over Newfoundland/Eastern Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Gonzalo intensified quickly during the past two days and is moving away from the caribbean. Gonzalo now a major hurricane is forecast to intensify to category-4 intensity today. A cold front extending well into the subtropics will guide the hurricane northward near Bermuda, potentially drawing moisture over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday. The centre of the storm may track anywhere from just east of Cape Breton to well offshore over the Grand Banks - which is approximately a 600-kilometres span of uncertainty. Timing of the storm's possible impact over land or closest offshore approach will be in the late Friday to late Saturday timeframe.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing regular bulletins this afternoon since the storm is expected to at least affect our offshore marine district.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty


good luck to the folks up there keeper..its still a major hurricane,they should be preparing now huh
Quoting 828. weaverwxman:

I for one do not want a hurricane in my backyard next week coming up from the gulf. Wilma comes to mind and I'm good with not having another. Having said that do you think if we all rush over to Fla west coast next week and stand by the shore with some big fans we can push this thing whatever it may be to Texas, afterall they need the rain Florida does not.......
its yet to be seen if it even survives crossing Mexico,lets wait a week and see what happens..i did see one run yesterday which brought it into the big bend of florida as a rain maker...today no, the models keep it in the BOC..which means they have no idea what its going to do lol...lets just wait and see what happens in a week or so.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 814. RitaEvac:

Went to Playa Del Carmen last week on the Yucatan for first time, awesome down there, blue turquoise green water, white sand.... got to fly over the GOM
I was in Cancun in the 80's,your right the water and sand are beautiful down there..we took a trip to see the Mayan ruins..it was great..good to see you back here Rita
Quoting weatherbro:
Tonight dewpoints should drop into the 40's and 50's across all of central Florida behind the cold front.


Front is about finished with us here in Fort Myers.
The front dropped most its rain up in the Panhandle. Not much left of the front for South Florida.
We officially picked up .21" from this system. We've only picked up .81" for the month with sunny weather expected for at least the next 5 days.








Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Xyrus, this is projected, at current containment rate, to double in number every two weeks in the coming months. That's spreading quickly and quickly exasperates into faster spreading rates down the road. This is what the CDC says. So to say this isn't spreading quickly is not accurate. We're in uncharted waters, not even the CDC or the best infectious control experts in the world really know where this is going or what the real spread rate will or will not be.
The Doc will soon post an update so no one will see this anyway but here's the bottom line. As long as only healthcare workers get ebola, we have a level 4 isolation procedure problem. If someone who only had casual contact with a patients gets it, we have a big, big problem. My bet is that it doesn't spread beyond healthcare workers, but that's like betting on a 14 day model being right.

EDIT: I knew it...
Quoting 834. ETFRIEND:

We at Puerto Rico are very lucky. The extra-terrestrials have a base here at El Yunque Rain Forest and they always turn their blower on in high to keep us safe from storms.


They have an underwater base offshore Tampico, Mexico that keeps the storms away too. At least that's what the locals say.
Almost finished with my Hazel blog, I'll post again when it's up and running ;)
Quoting 841. LargoFl:

its yet to be seen if it even survives crossing Mexico,lets wait a week and see what happens..i did see one run yesterday which brought it into the big bend of florida as a rain maker...today no, the models keep it in the BOC..which means they have no idea what its going to do lol...lets just wait and see what happens in a week or so.

FL is due for a powerful storm. Not wishing for one, but it seems unnatural for this whole area to go this long without a storm more intense than Fay or Beryl. I hope everyone in Bermuda is safe and unharmed. I would expect damage to be relatively heavy, but not devastating.