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Hurricane forecasters call for very active Atlantic season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on April 03, 2007

A very nasty Atlantic hurricane season is on tap in 2007, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU). The Gray/Klotzbach team is calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The forecast calls for a much above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is normal) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an above normal risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters increased their hurricane activity numbers from their December forecast, citing the rapid dissipation of the winter El Nio event, a forecast of neutral or weak-to-moderate La Nia conditions for the coming hurricane season, plus a continuation of above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

How accurate are the April forecasts?
I would have liked to have seen mentioned in today's forecast in big bold letters, "our past April forecasts have shown no skill in predicting Atlantic hurricane activity." Don't get me wrong--the CSU team are very skilled scientists, and I like the fact that they are trying to make useful seasonal hurricane forecasts. However, the skill of these April forecasts when compared to climatology is near zero, and they should be stating that in very clear terms in their April forecasts. In fact, CSU April forecasts from 1995-2006 have shown slightly negative skill. Negative skill means that a forecast of the normal climatology of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes for the period 1995-2005 performed better than the CSU forecast. CSU Forecasts from the past five years have shown some improvement, and have a slight positive skill. The CSU team has posted an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology). You can see from their numbers that the December and April forecasts have near zero skill, but the June 1 forecasts have substantial skill. To rectify their poor April forecast skill, the CSU team is trying a new scheme for this year's April forecast. They found that the February-March SST (30-45N, 10-30W), February-March SST (30-45N, 10-30W), and February-March sea level pressure (20-45S, 100-160W) could be used to explain about 55% of the ups and downs of hurricane activity over the period 1950-2004. Hopefully the new scheme will show positive skill forecasting upcoming hurricanes seasons, and not just "hindcasting" the past ones. For now, you're best off just paying attention to their June 1 forecast, which has been quite skillful over the past ten years.

2007 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued a 2007 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today as well. TSR has almost the same forecast as the CSU team--17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. I like how they put their skill level right next to their forecast numbers: 9% skill at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 14% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much better than flipping a coin, but it is better than the slightly negative forecast skill of the Gray/Klotzbach April forecasts. However, TSR doesn't mention the fact that part of their skill may be due to the fact that they issue forecasts of fractional storms--i.e., the numbers they will verify for this April's foreacst are 16.7 named storms, 9.2 hurricanes, and 4.2 intense hurricanes. If we round these numbers to whole storms, the TSR skill numbers may decrease.

TSR projects that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two or three of these being hurricanes. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects two named storms, one of them being a hurricane (50/50 chance of being a major hurricane). TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season: above normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected in August-September 2007 across the tropical Atlantic, as well as slower than normal trade winds July-September. Trade winds are forecast to be 0.9 meters per second (about 2 mph) slower than average, which would create greater spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up due to reduced evaporational cooling. SSTs are forecast to be about 0.16 degrees C above normal. TSR gives an 85% chance that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will rank in the top third of active seasons observed since 1957.


Figure 1. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is near zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

Landmark greenhouse gas emissions ruling by the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court yesterday ruled that the EPA has the authority to regulate CO2 as a pollutant. An analysis of this ruling is presented by Dr. Ricky Rood today in our Climate Change blog. This could well prove to be the Supreme Court's most important environmental decision ever.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Since 2001,the CSU team has improved,though.Their average error is 4.5 named storms on their April forecast.
So, has anyone seen if someone has a storm-predicting pig and how its picks stack up to the good folks at CSU?
Thanks Dr. Masters

Well everyone start preparing now
Well,I have seen a few,but I don't want to start any fights oreodog.LOL,BBL.
Pigs in a blanket
If theres any one area where newspapers look with longing at electronic media, its the weather. Its hard to stay ahead of it. We can say what happened. We can say what might happen, but its the rare storm in these parts that allows us to write that it is indeed happening as it happens (Thats because most of our winter storms have the annoying habit of starting in the early morning.).

But we talk about the weather and we still write about the weather and figure out ways to explain the weather in ways that make sense.

Which brings us to todays post. At our afternoon budget meeting the other day, one of our page designers, Steve Mann, was talking about how a bad storm was coming in. When we asked him how he knew, he said that his pot-bellied pig was making a deep nest in her barn near Stokesdale. Like many animals, she is much more accutely attuned to the weather than us humans. Miss Piggy is apparently incredibly accurate in predicting the weather, much better than the aches in my joints. Not sure if she will become the Journal weather icon, but well see what we can do.
I repate my hurricane season forcast and it is 100% accurate and infalable.

Light during the day Dark at night with a 50/50 chance of rain or sun each day.

Happy Wishcasting
Light during the day Dark at night with a 50/50 chance of rain or sun each day.


Shouldn't that be...100% chance of sun each day. If not, global warming is definitely over.
Hey everyone. Been a long time. Hope all are well.

Do I need to pull out Jobu already?
Now would be a great time to start preparing for '07 hurricane season. Feels like '05 all over again.
Trade winds are expected to be 2 mph slower than normal. If this holds true, and the jet stream stays to the north...watch out. It could get interesting.
If only the steering winds stay this way forever, atlantic coast wouldn't have much to worry about.Link
Aggieman! How the hell are you? I asked someone about you the other day, and they didn't know where you was at either. Jobu Jobu Jobu. Nailed to a tree -- or on the diving board!
For South Floridian's.

From the SFLWMD on April 2nd

"The new cutbacks will be more restrictive than anything our agency has ever proposed, but our water resources are at risk," said Carol Ann Wehle, executive director of the SFWMD.

"We urge all residents to voluntarily observe the stricter guidelines immediately in an effort to stretch our water supply. We have entered what may be the worst drought in recordable South Florida history, and all water needs to be conserved no matter the source."
But any Caribbean system would slam right into the Gulf....watch out N.O.
WHAT: Briefing for news media on the water shortage by the South Florida Water Management District
WHEN: Tuesday, April 3
TIME: 3:30 p.m.
WHERE: South Florida Water Management District Headquarters
Auditorium, 3301 Gun Club Road, West Palm Beach
WHY: This year's dry season currently ranks as the third driest hydrologic season on record in Florida. Water managers are predicting that unless significant rain events return to South Florida, drought conditions are likely to intensify quickly, especially in areas surrounding Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.
WHO: South Florida Water Management District Executive Director Carol Ann Wehle will be talking about and answering questions on managing the water shortage and current drought conditions as well as discussing the possibility of additional water restrictions in the coming weeks.
CALL IN
NUMBER:
Local: (561) 682-6700, ID 4555
Long distance: (866) 433-6299, ID 4555


We can probably watch the news tonight to hear all the details of this meeting! I am anxious to find out.
18. Inyo
I would have liked to have seen mentioned in today's forecast in big bold letters, "our past April forecasts have shown no skill in predicting Atlantic hurricane activity." April forecasts from the CSU team from the past five years have shown a slight amount of positive skill, but those from 1995-2006 have shown slightly negative skill.

haha, isn't that the truth! It's not just the hurricane forecasts either. The long range forecast called for last winter in southern California to be warm and rainy. It turned out to be what will probably be the driest season in record, accompanied by the most severe cold snap in at least 40 years. Around March they finally changed over to 'drier than average' but it is easy to predict a drought when it is already happening. If i remember right, the forecasts also called for 2004-2005 to be slightly drier than average and we got 300% of our average rainfall - the wettest year since the 1800s. The forecasts seem to almost have negative skill.

My theory is that it is beacuse they are analogy-based, and because the climate is changing now the analogies don't work anymore. Maybe the forecasts are just no good, though. I have nothing but respect for meteorologists, and short and medium term forecasts are very important and often save lives. However, it seems like the long range forecasts are pure speculation and less accurate than silly folk tales or animal behaviour. The oaks in California produced a bumper crop of acorns before the wet winter of 2004-2005 and produced almost none last fall. They even dropped half-developed acorns before the fires of 2003. My co-worker's tortose tried to hibernate early this year, which of course had the cold snap. Coincidences? Maybe, but so are any accurate long range forecasts.

That being said, the prediciton for early summer here is for colder than average and foggy weather. I hope this is correct.. it is common with La Nina.
Since 2001,the CSU team has improved,though.Their average error is 4.5 named storms on their April forecast.
when is the TSR forcast come out is it today?
Yes Taz,it came out today and is exactly the same as last months.
[changed comment]
Oreo,

Doing very well and busy as always. Hope the same applies to you and yours.

Jobu, for the uninformed yet generally more intelligent of our lot, is my personal contribution towards warding off Gulf Coast seeking tropical cyclones, thus serving as a protector of my coastal brethren in "these here" parts. For all of the potential skeptics out there, last year was his first season and the results were, obviously, very good.

Jobu is neither handsome or wealthy, therefore, he could not possibly afford, or bribe, the nail necessary to hang him from a tree. Actually, this would not be an appropriate location for him as there is no honor in having one's body tacked to a tree.

No, in fact, the hairy little guy is ceremoniously, and respectfully, placed on the edge of the pool in a southward facing direction. During this little ritual, we perform the Jobu jig which, due to the proprietary and very scary nature of the dance, will not be described here(okay, it was part of the settlement with my neighbors who were not, shall we say, as appreciative as I had hoped). After placement and performing the Jobu jig(anyone know how to put the trademark symbol on here?), we then sacrifice a Michelob Ultra(you folks thought I would say nutria or armadillo, didn't you?) to the storm gods. At the end of the season, we will repeat this ceremony, just in the reverse direction.

I know we are a cultural bunch down here but we are short.

Life is good, let's keep it that way.
dam i was hoping that it will say some in new
A good tropical storm prediction variable is the Atlantic Wind Shear Forecast. The belt of upper level winds which has protected the US from storms for well over a year is still in place, and will probably remain in place,
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 4:36 PM GMT on April 03, 2007.

how march logger before it is April fools again


I think about 364 days or something like that
take a look how strong that high is that is a 1049 high the colors are off the map

lol
Franck I wouldn't bet the beachfront property on that occuring this year.
Frank,look at wind shear forecast:



The shear will be gone by the heart of the season.
Gulfscotsman...you're the second greatest poet blogging the WU. Of course, the Patrap remains the Kang.
wow weatherboykris what dos is that map telling me ??? is that map showing lower wind shear?
blue is lower Taz,orange is higher.
franck.....the upper level winds are going to change in the following months to a more northern shear.....just like it has done almost every La Nina year. They will update the shear forecast in the next couple of weeks.
white is normal
wind shear will be gone ???
yes Taz;above normal wind shear will be gone.
LOL, I liked Franck's forecast better than WeatherboyKris's. Doesn't mean it's right, it just helps me sleep better. Shear is good. Shear is kind.
As Patrap once said:

"Shear is like gas,it comes and it goes."
lol
Good afternoon guys....

Wow looks like gray thinks this will be nasty season,as ive been saying since january use this time wisely and make sure you have a hurricane plan in place come june1.
Do you remember the ad that played last year, "Carbon Dioxide: They call it pollution. We call it life."

My favorite comment on that was Andrew Sullivan's: "I'm not making this up. Now I'm not going to knock CO2. And when you watch the ad, you'll find it comes out of your lungs in short, sharp bursts of laughter."
Plan number one: Not going to get drunk during the storm.

Plan number two: Forget plan number one.
Hey everyone I see Dr. Grays forcast is out sounds like it's gonna be a bad Hurricane Season. Everyone needs to take this time to get everything in order and have a plan.
LOL MP.
That's true Sheri.
Yes, Patrap does have a way of cutting to the heart of any matter.

Okay, I think I have it now. Shear is good, shear is kind, gas will come and go.

You think we will ever see these words on some wood plank being sold in a Cracker Barrel? WU should have the rights to all revenues.

Hey WBK: How's your day going?
LOL Gulfscotsman.
I m not a scientist or a meterologist,but I have lived in S.FL all my life. Our droughts eem to work themselves out.......usually through June gloom or a hurricane. Hopefully, the former not the later will be the case this year.
This is the scary part!

Most of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral or cool ENSO conditions are likely for this upcoming summer/fall. Based on the latest prediction plume figure from the International Research Institute (IRI) (Figure 2), only one of 16 models is calling for El Nio conditions (SST anomaly greater than 0.5C) in the Nino 3.4 region (5S-5N, 120-170W) during the August-October period. Ten models are calling for neutral conditions, while the remaining five models are calling for La Nia conditions (SST anomaly less than -0.5C).
Ummmmm,that's nothing we didn't already know,H23.LOL
GulfScott, if you add the beard and take off several feet, "that guy" in your picture looks nearly identical to Jobu except I think I can tell(see all that shear behind him) Jobu probably smells better.
I'd consider the 74% chance of a U.S. major hurricane landfall to be the scary part.And the part with '64 as an analog year,LOL.
See you later.
I know kris....

Some of us dont follow ENSO forcasts.

1964 Hurricane Tracks.

Looking back at blogs from 10/22/05-10/24/05, (wilma) scary stuff. That's one storm I'll never forget.
Was 2005 a La Nina, El Nino, or neutral year? For some reason, my feeble memory is locked onto the thought that it was more neutral.
Hey Sheri whats up?

Ive created a hurricane preparation page on website take a look and let me know what you think.

SEE HERE
Swlaaggie, it was somewhere between neutral and La nina.
Posted By: swlaaggie at 1:23 PM EDT on April 03, 2007. (hide)
Was 2005 a La Nina, El Nino, or neutral year? For some reason, my feeble memory is locked onto the thought that it was more neutral.

2005 saw Neutral conditions that later developed into a nino which created a very unfavorable enviroment for development.Along with a host of other factors.Neutral years have proven very active for florida in particular.
Nice site H23
Thanks.
73. Inyo
the winter of 2004-2005 was a very mild El Nino
lol, Kong-rey is going to sleep, its closing its eye.
Remember guys in 2006 we saw very strong westerlies screaming across the Atlantic basin which helped in create a very unfavorable enviroment for tropical development.With neutral condtions present in 07 overall atmospheric conditions will be quite favorable for development meaning somewere in between 2004-2005 levels.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
Sign me up, Gulf!
GulfScotsman....guess I'm better prepared for a hurricane than I thought. Pouches up.
79. IKE
Less than 59 days until the arrival of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season + the return of ST...alias for STORMTOP.
HERE...FOR THOSE THAT NEED A LITTLE WAKE UP CALL.....OUR HERO WILL BE HERE BEFORE WE KNOW IT

Posted By: STORMTOP at 2:59 AM GMT on August 06, 2006.
PAY ATTENTION PEOPLE I WOULD NOT WRITE OFF CHRIS YET THIS STORM WILL BE CAUSING LOTS OF PROBLEMS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...YOU HEARD IT FROM THE MAN WHO KNOWS STORMTOP....JUST REMEMBER WHERE YOU HEARD IT FROM....IT LOOKS LIKE IM ON MY OWN JUST ME AND CHRIS JUST THE WAY I WANT IT TO BE........StormTop

i expect chris to redevelop into a tropical storm on sunday night or monday then the forecast gets tricky...there is a trough digging down from the rockies on tuesday thats supposed to pick chris up...if it picks chris up chris will strengthen into a cat 1 hurricane 85mph winds....it will hit between galveston and mobile sometime thursday...if the trough misses it it will be a strong tropical storm as it moves into mexico....this has been a statement from the stormtops weather service 002225

Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:26 AM GMT on August 06, 2006.
yes my forecast for chris IS WRITTEN IN STONE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:28 AM GMT on August 06, 2006.
ITS VERY POSSIBLE STORM THUG IF THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP IT COULD GO ANYWHERE FROM GALVESTON TO MOBILE....THAT IS WRITTEN IN STONE...THE SUBJECT WILL BE BACK ON CHRIS TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN.....
I have lived in the mid-west my whole life. It seems like the size and frequency of hail has greatly increased in the last couple years.

Is there statitistics that back up this observation?

This morning while riding the bus to work it was easily 1 inchs diameter hail banging on the roof of the bus in Columbia, MO.

Our insurance bought us a new roof last summer from a hail storm and we used the money from our car insurance (it was considered totaled) to buy an underground storm shelter that we put in the floor of our garage.

Julie

lol, didn't chris dissipate?
83. IKE
Posted By: lilmax at 1:11 PM CDT on April 03, 2007.
lol, didn't chris dissipate?


I think it did.

ST...LOL
Oh Lord. Six months away from this drama and I had found a way to forget about ST.

And so it begins.......
Dont put too much into a very active hurricane season. It seems there was an active year predicted for 2006 (didnt happen) and NO ONE came close to predicting 2005. This is somewhat the same thing as global warming. To much hype, too little data. For those of you old enough to remember back in the mid 70s, after a few cold years (1976-77 winter was the coldest in US history) all the talk and predictions were for the "Coming ICE AGE". Glaciers are advancing, northern cities will be uninhabitable within a few decades (now), etc.etc...... So now we have a few warm years and suddenly the earth is boiling. People like Al Gore only feed this hype. You CANNOT base such long range predictions on a few years of data!!
Hi Dr Masters,

Don't get in here often during the season but after reading the 22 page report this morning and seeing your new header, decided to get reacquainted with your blog! Sure hope the forcast is off and this year is no worse than last year...but just in case, more prepared now than ever before; hope I don't have to use any of that stuff.

Hi everyone, sounds like the excitement is building; it's April and this time last year we thought the first storm would be in April! LOL! (but then 2005 was a dilly of a year and we still had Zeta up and running in January 2006)

Take care and sure I will be seeing more of all of you as the summer months aproach.

Gams
Speaking of animals knowing what's coming: I remember about two years ago, in the spring, hearing about what the frogs in the everglades were doing: they were building their nests much higher off the ground than usual. Of course that was the year with the terrible hurricanes in florida. Can anybody find out what the frogs are doing this year? I've been asking around, and looking on the internet, but haven't had any luck yet.
true true
FRIEDA.....i'm sorry to say...all the frogs are croaking
Bada boom.
Can anybody find out what the frogs are doing this year? I've been asking around, and looking on the internet, but haven't had any luck yet.

LOL, I thought Al told us the frogs were extinct. Maybe those are evolved crawfish. In any case, I'll see what the nutria are doing with their homes around here.

j/k
lol bbl
ric, that was to funny!
Hey Gams,

Long time, no post to. Hope all is well.
FRIEDA.....i'm sorry to say...all the frogs are croaking

Damn, I never realized how much I missed you folks.
thank you swlaaggie, and all others... I know that the frogs are a 'croakin -- lots of other die-offs going on all around us also.
DON'T WORRY FOLKS.....i perform twice nightly....9 and midnite
No offense intended Frieda. When you're posting on boards, it's hard to determine what someone is passionate about, well, except for StormTop. Please accept my apology.
See what you did Ricderr. I haven't been back on these boards 3 hours and you have already gotten me in trouble. :)
A long time ago, I heard somewhere that a little knowledge in the hands of the ignorant is a dangerous thing. After CO2 was "declared a pollutant" by the Supreme Court, I overheard a conversation between two business types (intelligent, to all appearances) about global warming and the rise in CO2. Says one, "You know, the solution is so simple--all we have to do is eliminate all CO2 from the earth and our global warming problem will be solved." Says the other, "Exactly! We need to write the Governator [Schwartzenegger] and tell him to do something about that. After all, California always leads the way with smog control." What is scary is that, aside from the obvious lack of knowledge of photosynthesis and respiration--they might be the products of the famous California education system--someone in Sacramento might agree and soon will require anti-CO2 devices on dogs, cats, cows, people, etc. We might even be charged for CO2 credits so we can breath without the devices. Sounds crazy? Remember, this is California--the place that just passed a law that requires Environmental Science education to take place in all core academic classes at all grade levels. Environmental science education required in geometry? As my grandmother used to say, "Common sense isn't very common."
No, it wasn't meant as sarcasm. I really do appreciate it if someone could help figure this out.
Africa is bubblin


ha ha Geoman, but the Supreme Court made the right decision so the environment and progressive people everywhere have the last laugh..

And my grandmother also had a saying: "Don't expect people to thank you for doing the right thing.."
All the African convection is south of the equator, turning clockwise.
...or at least so close to the equator that no rotation will begin. To the north is a giant belt of shearing winds reaching all the way to the caribbe.
Hey there everyone i don't post much and haven't really since last season but just thought i guess to add my 2cents, In regards to the 07 predictions i feel its WAY to early to know what is coming examples for me would be 05 and 06. In 05 there prediction was not truly close to the 28 named storms we saw, and on the other hand for 06 the expected active season never came. but still with that said i feel the scariest part of all of this is there is still a high percentage of residents who still are not taking this serious and getting preparations for a coming storm and i feel out of anything thats where the danger is, But i must say though 07 so far has many similar characteristics to the 95 season but only time will tell if that holds true. Take care everyone
110. IKE
April 3rd is just too early to worry about what's out in the Atlantic...as far as the hurricane season..unless the rarity of an April storm forms..which is highly unlikely...but...

Everything I've read, points to an above average hurricane season with the gulf coast possibly active with storms/hurricanes.
sw....please accept my most profound apology.....i'll actually do a little research on your behalf
112. IKE
AccuWeather.coms Bastardi: Last Year Was Just a Breather
Geoman,
Thanks for pointing out the absurdity of all this CO2 hype. Eliminate all CO2 from the earth and you eliminate all life. Maybe we should eliminate all of these "intelligent" businesspeople (starting with Al Gore) and THAT would solve all of our problems!!
When was the earliest named storm for the US? Was is May?
The first hurricane of the year hit on June 9th(or 3rd,can't remember which).Ironically,both the earliest and latest huricanes to hit the U.S. on record hit Florida.
116. IKE
There was at least 1 in April...that I recall. There may have been more April storms. It's rare.

Oops...thought you were asking just storms and not land falling. Sorry.
airman45, you can sleep easy - no one is trying to eliminate all C02 from the earth..

What many people of good conscience are trying to do is develop long-term strategies to stop atmospheric CO2 levels from increasing to the point where they cause severe heating of the atmosphere resulting in grievous harm to the planet's lifeforms (including people).
well, it's nice today here in southeast NC coastal area
Actualy I am looking for both, thanks Ike, and Kris, Landfalling, and developed
Just remember, for millions of years, during the dinosaur era, the Earth was MUCH warmer than it is now, and teeming with plant and animal life. There were no polar ice caps and there is evidence of tropical forests as far north as Alaska. Then the Earth cooled, ice ages came and went, and life went on. Just because our civilization is based on a few thousand stable years and cant tolerate change is no reason to scream that a little warming will destroy the Earth. Be flexible and adapt to change, dont fight it. What irritates me the most is these politicians and businesspeople saying for the "masses" to cut back while they drive their limosines and use enormous amounts of energy in their mansions and private jets!
When was the earliest named storm for the US? Was is May?

February Link
i wonder when we will hear from stormtrot
Mother Earth is in no danger from human activity. If we don't take care of Mother Earth, she will take care of us. (Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned)
Thanks, Snowboy, I know that. Just sometimes I get the need to spout off about these things, especially when people get illogical about a subject just because of media hype.
sw....please accept my most profound apology.....i'll actually do a little research on your behalf

Fair enough ricderr. Apology accepted. :=)
Watch what you say,homegirl.snowboy and STL eat things like that up.LOL
homegirl what about the hole in the ozone?
airman45, our "First World" civilization is based on 150 years of reasonably stable climate. You merrily suggest we should "be flexible" and not fight climate change but adapt.

If we continue to emit CO2 the way we have been, then adapting will involve dealing with:
- contracting economies world-wide;
- increasing food and water shortages;
- increasing number and severity of environmental disasters;
- inreased potential for wars over ever-scarcer resources;
- increasing numbers of "environmental refugees";
- decreasing standard of living.

Maybe you can spell out your program for adapting, and people can consider whether they'd rather adapt - or do the sensible thing and try to use our energy resources more wisely..
UH Oh homegirl, you have awoken the GW brigade!! Watch out!!..LOL
LOL kris..
131. IKE
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:48 PM CDT on April 03, 2007.
When was the earliest named storm for the US? Was is May?

February Link

And, of course, it hit Florida!
Well,it's true snowboy.You guys take it personally.
a fanfare of trumpets as the GW brigade rides into battle!

Actually, it's not homegirl's doing, it was the trite posts from geoman and airman45 that cried out for a response..
hey Scotsman, we'll see old STORMTOP soon enough. As soon as we have the first sign of tropical systems, he'll come crashing in like an Old Testament prophet..
Snowboy, thanks for your excellent points. As you can see I am the one spouting off illogically. Sorry I was misunderstood. When I said "adapt" I meant just what your last sentence said "Do the sensible thing and use our energy resources more wisely." Should have said "adapt lifestyles". Easier said than done, of course, but very necessary.
Ive been checking anomalies the past couple of weeks and one thing ive noticed is waters continue to get warm in the far eastern atlantic and central atlantic if the warming continues there will alot of fuel for systems to intensify in 07.Lets see how things develope in the coming weeks and months.Adrian

(Anomalies for the atlantic basin)


Anyone have any relevant hurricane synopsises? Because I can read all about CO2 and Global Warming in the National Enquirer in the bathroom when I get home...
Based on the updated "EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2007" I have made my own outlook (speculation) for Florida:
I hope you're right about one hurricane invading Florida, Fred. Though I'd rather zero.
fredwx neutral conditions have been known to be very active for florida in particular.
MisterPerfect, if you haven't grasped Dr. Masters' post yet - he's saying that predictions of hurricane activity for the upcoming season that are made in April have less of chance of being correct than just predicting the long-term average activity.. But by all means seek out and obtain hurricance synopses if you choose to pass the time that way.

Others on here choose to pass their time discussing the most important current issue in the field of climatology - namely global warming. If that's not for you, then that's fine but maybe try to exercise some self-control and stifle your snide comments.
Its quite early and alot can change but if the high stays in its current location it may only be a matter of time before a scary situation developes somewere in florida of large magnitude.
Hi Guys, Gals and any lurkers that can't get though security.

Don't say that H23...it might just happen
In my opinion 2006 was just an anomaly to the current active pattern we are in and will stay for atleast the next decade before we enter a more quite period.
Thunderstorm2 iam actually happy the media is hypeing this season cause it can only do good for prepardness.
hurricane23
Based on the analog years reported in the outlook which should reflect the neutral conditions. During those 5 analog years there were 65 named storms, of which 9 (14%) made landfall in Florida.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007ATLANTIC OCEAN...
QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. IN
THE WRN ATLC...A WEAK SFC RIDGE COVERS THE REGION WITH TWO
EMBEDDED HIGHS...A 1023 MB NEAR 29N73W AND A 1022 MB NEAR
28N62W. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN IS KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
TO FRESH ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE IS ALSO BUILDING E INTO THE AREA WITH THE AXIS RUNNING
FAIRLY N-S FROM THE W CARIB TO FLORIDA CONTINUING WELL N TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC LIES ON THE E
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND S OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LARGE LOW PRES
SYSTEM NEAR 40N42W. THIS CONFLUENT PATTERN IS AIDING IN THE
SINKING OF AIR ALOFT KEEPING PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHALLOW. THERE IS A SWATH OF SCATTERED LAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-55W AND
N OF 31N W OF THERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF LOWS N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ZONAL TO WSW. THIS IS PROVIDING LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N26W
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 TO
23N33W THEN CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 14N48W.
THIS FRONT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF IT. WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING LIES JUST E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N18W. IN THE FAR
SE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE UPPER FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE SW IN
RESPONSE TO EXTENSIVE FLAT RIDGING OVER AFRICA.THIS DIFFLUENT
PATTERN IS PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION
IN THE ITCZ
Others on here choose to pass their time discussing the most important current issue in the field of climatology - namely global warming. If that's not for you, then that's fine but maybe try to exercise some self-control and stifle your snide comments.

I find your comments loutish and pubescent. I understand it is your agenda to profess global warming. You don't have to use malicious annotation with me sir.
Prepare now...just don't wait untill the 1st Tropical Storm or hurricane comes knocking on your door.

That's what i say
Its not the number of systems that form that matters its the ones that actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.

It will be interesting to see what the cold wave later this week does to the above normal water temps in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Its not the number of systems that form that matters its the ones that actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.

Correct:

The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 1992, and lasted until November 30, 1992. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. However, the season got off to an early start when Subtropical Storm One formed in April, being the first recorded storm to form in this month until the 2003 season. Although the season had an active start, it had a slow end. Total activity was below average, likely because of the 1991-1994 El Nio.

The most notable storm of the season was Hurricane Andrew, the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history until Hurricane Katrina in the 2005 season, and the third Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States. The season also had several unusual landfalls, with Hurricanes Bonnie and Charley both striking the Azores, while Tropical Storm Danielle made landfall on the Delmarva Peninsula of Virginia.
1960 was also a below normal season, but it had Donna which mauled most of the east coast. Also, 1972 was another below normal season which had a weak hurricane (Agnes) which caused the greatest weather disaster the interior northeast has ever seen.

After last year, when everyone was predicting an above normal season (and I believed it), I am going to let the hype go and see what actually happens.

Our old friend STORMTOP was almost alone in not predicting an above normal season last year, give the devil his due, lol.
Sirrah, watch your tongue or we'll see our first WU duel..
158. Inyo
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 8:26 PM GMT on April 03, 2007.
Anyone have any relevant hurricane synopsises? Because I can read all about CO2 and Global Warming in the National Enquirer in the bathroom when I get home...


Posted By: MisterPerfect at 8:48 PM GMT on April 03, 2007.


I find your comments loutish and pubescent. I understand it is your agenda to profess global warming. You don't have to use malicious annotation with me sir.


did you read your own post?
"Our old friend STORMTOP was almost alone in not predicting an above normal season last year, give the devil his due, lol."

Haha.. correct. ;P
On average, I'd have to say that ST is about as accurate as everyone else. He gets lucky every now and then just like we do.

So, kudos to the belligerant twit that everyone loves to hate!
Posted By: snowboy at 8:38 PM GMT on April 03, 2007.

MisterPerfect, if you haven't grasped Dr. Masters' post yet - he's saying that predictions of hurricane activity for the upcoming season that are made in April have less of chance of being correct than just predicting the long-term average activity.. But by all means seek out and obtain hurricance synopses if you choose to pass the time that way.

Others on here choose to pass their time discussing the most important current issue in the field of climatology - namely global warming. If that's not for you, then that's fine but maybe try to exercise some self-control and stifle your snide comments.



I can't help but disagree...GW is not the most important weather subject.I don't really know if you could call any one area of meteorology the most important,but GW is not it.And besides,officially you shouldn't be talking about GW on this blog anyway:

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored."
Weatherguy03 is having a contest on his blog on when we will have our first named storm in 2007. I believe that I picked June 18th.

I am thinking that maybe Gulfscotsman should have a contest as well:

Name the date Storm Top makes his first post of the season.
Didn't realize until yesterday (when I first got on the blog since last Fall) that the "old timers" start their dialogs, and jokes/sarcasm, well before the start of the Atlantic season..Jolly Good Show......................
Anyone tell me which satellites (NOAA or otherwise) that we would be interested in as far as our watch on the tropics goes this Hurricane season? The reason behind my question is that I'm integrating a replacement for my Tropical Google Earth Layer, and thought it would be nice to incorporate these so that we can see when Blackout periods would occur. Maybe to illustrate you should look at this. My thinking is that I could show which satellites have visibility/blackout in real time. You can also look at this link if you care to see all the satellites. I think this would be a really cool and useful integration, but I'd need to know which satellites to show so as not to clutter the screen. Any input is appreciated.

Paul
Thank you weatherboykris - snowboy somehow thinks he is Moderator - today's blog is titled "Hurricane forecasters call for very active Atlantic season"
. In the far
se tropical N Atlc...the upper flow veers more to the SW in
response to extensive flat ridging over Africa. This diffluent
pattern is providing a more favorable environment for convection
in the ITCZ.
pseabury visit my satelitte page...SEE HERE
Right...but I need to be able to correlate common names to real Satellite ID's. For instance, the orbital data for NOAA satellites is here. GOES WEST/EAST are GOES-11 and GOES-12 respectively. GOES-10 will also supplement GOES EAST.

So basically what I need is to correlate which satellites produce the images that we are interested in, like the ones you linked to above...

Paul
All are GOES EAST except for the floaters and the images designated MET-8.
Posted By: BoyntonBeach at 10:21 PM GMT on April 03, 2007.

Thank you weatherboykris - snowboy somehow thinks he is Moderator - today's blog is titled "Hurricane forecasters call for very active Atlantic season"



I don't know about him being the moderator,but what I meant was that he shouldn't tell people to go somewhere else to talk about TW on a TW blog.
fair enough weatherboykris, you've got a point there - mea culpa..
Lots of storms in northern South America and Africa.
any idea whether the talk of updating the QuickSat, wind satellite ever went anywhere? Also there was talk that the long range, I believe P-3's would not be used this year because of funding. Can anyone elaborate on either of those?
Excellent blog Dr Masters, way to stir up some debate. I about have to assume the analog years that '07 may liken to are some of the ones they didn't mention. The years they say this one will be like this far out is never the year we say this was like when it is over.

As for the GW I see it as fair game, since if you read the blog entry, we can see the EPA has once again been given it's right to regulate things that most likely cause climate change. Auto makers thoughts on the ruling.
Well...who wants to talk about GW anyway?It's about as interesting as geology.
176. Inyo
Posted By: airman45 at 7:48 PM GMT on April 03, 2007.
Just remember, for millions of years, during the dinosaur era, the Earth was MUCH warmer than it is now, and teeming with plant and animal life. There were no polar ice caps and there is evidence of tropical forests as far north as Alaska.


This is true, and for swamp and rain forest plants, global warming might be a great thing. After all, biodiversity is usually higher in warmer or wetter areas. The problem is, humans are a species of savannas, grasslands, and dry mediterranean areas. We do well in those climates, and also have adapted well to cold northern areas such as the Great Plains. However, we are not particularly suited to live in swamps or coastal marshes or shallow inland seas, and if greenhouse warming occurs as predicted, these biomes will enlarge (including some of our cities being replaced by water). This means a lower carrying capacity, and to a species which is already probably over its long term carrying capacity, that means a lot of humans would starve to death. So, global warming isnt really about 'hurting poor mother earth', it is about a lot of human suffering. The plants will do fine, although habitat discontinuity caused by human stuff will kill some of them. Most of the animals will do fine. Animals at the top of the food chain, like humans, could experience population crashes.

What irritates me the most is these politicians and businesspeople saying for the "masses" to cut back while they drive their limosines and use enormous amounts of energy in their mansions and private jets!

You won't get any argument from me there.

However, i do have a problem with the logic chain prevalent on this board:

"Liberals believe in global warming"
"There are a lot of stupid, greedy, or hypocritical liberals"
"therefore global warming must not be happening"
.

This is a fallacy.. regardless of what you think of 'liberals' (I think most of them are obnoxious but in my opinion 'conservatives' are significantly worse) the science still stands. The idea that liberals somehow control academia is stupid. if anything, it's the other way around.



"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.


to those saying that this is not an appropriate place to discuss climate change, please re-read Dr Masters' post. A portion of the post discusses global warming. It isn't off topic.
No,it isn't off topic.But as I said,there is a designated climate change blog,please take your boring and often insulting discussions there.
Kong-rey is weakening.
Is it?It didn't do much to Guam.
Based on the satellite image.
Hey kris got some new 2005 dvd's today from one of my friends at the NWS.
From IWIC...

08:15 PM EDT, April 3, 2007 Notes & Asides: The CSU team has increased their forecast Atlantic hurricane season numbers to 17 / 9 / 5. "We have increased our forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, largely due to the rapid dissipation of El Nio conditions. We are now calling for a very active hurricane season. Landfall probabilities for the 2007 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages" Source. Tropical Storm Risk is also calling for a well above normal hurricane season. The 2007 IWIC Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast will be released May 25th. After adjusting our methodology following 2005, much of the detailed 2006 forecast was a much anticipated success. Additional adjustments to our methodology were made during the 2006 hurricane season and throughout this offseason. As always, it is our goal to exceed your viewing expectations all the while producing the most accurate seasonal forecast product. Thanks for visiting and be sure to return for the release ouf our 2007 outlook!
hey H23
Will it maintain its present location?We'll find out in about 2-3 months.


Only 57 more days.
Yep...
23 what if it dos what will that mean?


watch out new troll


watch out for Bobbyweather he this copy evere thing that was on dr m blog we got a copy cat on the blogs watch out for your blog you may be next
57 days, 22 hours, 34 minutes and 51 seconds to be exact
NOAA'S outlook may22.
23 what if that high you where talking about dos stay where it is that would not be good news
Where'd you get the date,H23
And where did you find out about the GFS upgrade?
: weatherboykris and 23 come to my blog
Taz if the high were to maintain its location threw the season it could spell a bad-season for the eastocast up and down.
bad news
hello?
Hey,

I'm new to the site currently enrolled in a meteorology class, and after reading Jeff's main blog, it just raises questions of overall accuracy of weather.

Why can meteorologists predict the weather more accurately during certain months than others? Perhaps I am naive in understanding the weather, but even if some months make it "better" for a meteorologist to predict the forecast, they still aren't always correct.

To clarify, I do understand that certain months are going to be more accurate, but the question is what exactly about the months make it so they can be predicted more accurately. The temperatures? Pressure?

Another inquiry pertains to accuracy of storms. I realize that storms predictions will go wrong if either the weather system causing the storm is moving at a different speed than forecasted or if it is either stronger/weaker than forecasted. I am confused up to the final day before the storm is to arrive. Since it is so close, shouldn't accuracy be at its highest? When a storm is weeks away, it is obviously going to be less accurate, but up to the last day, can a storm change that drastically within 24 hours and a meteorologist not be able to catch it (this is the key thought)?

A final thought piggy-backing on my first point, do meteorologists have months they "favor" per se in forcasting storms?

Again, I am not trying to sound naive at all about the weather or question the amount of work put in to forecasting the weather, but I just have questions to better my knowledge of the weather. After all, isn't that why we're all here? Thanks!
A final thought piggy-backing on my first point, do meteorologists have months they "favor" per se in forcasting storms?


In my experience,June storms are the easiest to forecast.
They typically have only one climatologically favored track:right up into the Big Bend.
When a storm is weeks away, it is obviously going to be less accurate, but up to the last day, can a storm change that drastically within 24 hours and a meteorologist not be able to catch it (this is the key thought)?


yes,it can
Actually,it happens often.
NHC conference worksh0ps Thursday Schedule.NOTE:..First row, meterology..class #4 3:30 - 5pm. A must see Link
Meteorology

"Hurricane Forecasts Are Imperfect Get Over It!"
Ill let ya know how that one goes.
A NASTY SEASON ????????? Oh NO. !!! But wait, this is good 'cause I just developed a new Device, that allows you to park your own High-Shear-Zone (tm) over your house.Its basicaly a baloon filled with Concentrated H-S-Z and available everywhere. Call 2345687890- FOR YOURS NOW.

Oh, hi everyone........
Serious storms coming off Africa already! Deep storms!
By the way, all storms this season are hereby asked to stay away from the south Caribbean islands(.Everybody gets to say their own prayers, right ?)
I hope this year is a calm year.
May be an interesting year
Hey Kris.

I went and copied and pasted this portion of Dr. Grays discussion that details the physical mechanics involved in the atmosphere that suggest the inceased activity of Atlantic Basin tropical activity is highly likely to be the result of natural climate variabilty (i.e. the AMO cycle) rather than any noticiable effect of Global warming. Moreover, he does a surburb job of explaining why Global warming should not alter tropical cyclone activity for the atmospheric parameters of tropical cyclone mechanics that I have alluded to in the past and in my previous post.

IN DR. GRAYS OWN WORDS:

"In a global warming or global cooling world, the atmospheres upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with the sea surface temperatures. Vertical lapse-rates will not be significantly altered. We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures continue to rise. For instance, in the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days. By contrast, in a similar 25-year period of 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general warming trend, there were only 38 major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as many) in the Atlantic basin. Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and hurricane activity do not necessarily follow global mean temperature trends."

"The most reliable long-period hurricane records we have are the measurements of US landfalling tropical cyclones since 1900 (Table 7). Although global mean ocean and Atlantic surface temperatures have increased by about 0.4oC between these two 50-year periods (1900-1949 compared with 1956-2005), the frequency of US landfall numbers actually shows a slight downward trend for the later period. If we chose to make a similar comparison between US landfall from the earlier 30-year period of 1900-1929 when global mean surface temperatures were estimated to be about 0.5oC colder than they were during the 30-year period from 1976-2005, we find exactly the same US hurricane landfall numbers (54 to 54) and major hurricane landfall numbers (21 to 21)."
thanks.
that's weird.I thought the upper atmosphere warmed or cooled opposite the lower portions.Geuss I was wrong.
There is no reason to believe Dr. Gray's statement that:
"In a global warming or global cooling world, the atmospheres upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with the sea surface temperatures. Vertical lapse-rates will not be significantly altered."
Uh, yeah - I posted something in ncforecaster's blog about the upper half of the troposphere and stratosphere cooling while the lower troposhere is warming - which perfectly fits with greenhouse gasses trapping heat (it was also forecast by models - and the fact that it was before it was actually observed lends the models credance for why the earth is warming).
MichaelSTL, it is indeed what is predicted by theory and observed in practice. Dr. Gray should know better, and I am wondering what is up with him.
What's up with him is that he's been studying this stuff directly for decades.Can you imagine all the overblown hype he's seen about everything from GW to GC,to hurricanes to tornadoes and everything else?I don't blame him for not believing in it.All through his career all he's seen have been cycles.Why believe anything else?
And quite frankly,I agree with him.If the warming doesn't stop in ten years,I'll believe you.But until then,I'm not convinced.
ahh ok weatherboykris, 10 years, I'll hold you to that! And for the record, if we see a decade of cooling at any point in the rest of my lifetime (absent a meteor or massive volcanic eruption) then I'll stop being such an outspoken advocate of global warming theory and the need to act..
eyestoplogo1left.jpg

...something already smelling in the tropics??? Could it be Andrea? Offcially now less than 58 days away. I've been trying to update some software, etc. Anything new that anyone would care to share?

...watch out for the "big fellow" this year! lol
Spooky
maybe there will come a storm once in 100 yrs a cat 5 maybe new york its been about that long maybe three one for carolines and george as well that my friends is possible but only once every 100 yrs.
Hey Kris and snowboy,

In regards to the 10 year time frame that you two were noting in your posts, I wanted to offer this important climatological data.

The previous AMO cycles were: (last century)

1970-1994 (cool) 25 seasons
1926-1969 (warm) 44 seasons
1900-1925 (cool) 26 seasons

Based upon this data, we should anticipate at least another 15-30 years for this most recent AMO cycle. Consequently, it would most certainly be premature to simply use any date prior to this time frame to make any definitive conclusions on whether global warming has had any noticeable influence on Atlantic hurricane activity.

Current "warm" phase of the AMO cycle (1995-?)

Note: In reality, all of our individual opinions are noting more and nothing less than our very own best educated GUESSES. Likewise, I feel that the same is also true of all the "experts" writing their own theoretical papers on this subject matter.

Regardless, I still genuinely appreciate all opinions on the subject whether they are in conformity to my own or not. More importantly, I want to wish each of you, and everyone else a great rest of the night and week ahead.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
Global warming is not the cause of EVERY single weather disaster like people think. Some people need to chill about this stuff... Sure we need to do something about it, but stating everything that isn't a normal day of weather is caused by global warming isn't helping. It's stupid.
hey ncforecaster - good to see you and thanks for that info. I wasn't being clear - I'm talking global atmospheric temps.. If we see 10 years of global cooling in my lifetime, I'll happily eat my shorts and stop tub thumping on the global warming issue. But it ain't gonna happen..
right on, KoritheMan - that sort of stupid alarmism drives me crazy, because it is not based on any science and in fact undermines the serious message of those who understand the science and its implications..
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
======================================
Tropical Cyclone Cliff
16.8S 179.6E - 40 knots 995 hPa

10 min sustained winds of 55 knots in 6 to 12 hours.
Cliff is moving southeast at 12 knots.

RSMC Nadi Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
========================================
The system continues to become organized with cloud bands wrapping tightly around the low level circulation center. Outflow is fair to good in all quadrants. Cliff lies southwest of the upper [250 hPa] outflow along the CVA Region.

Wind shear is currently low to moderate but is expected to encounter increasing shear when it moves south. Global models agree on a southerly track with increasing movement towards the south

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Alert
======================
Southern Lau and Lomaiviti


Special Weather Bulletins are being issued for Fiji
Everything's dissipating, Kong-rey, Cliff and Jaya.
These reports are getting scary - especially for us on the Gulf coast.

I don't mind if we have a season like '95 - tons of storms and few landfalls. But, if we look at another 2004, things could get hairy here...
Those three storms are wimps. Wait until the real action starts in the West Pacific later this year, as well as the Atlantic basin. Then we'll talk about interesting storms.
Kong-rey still forecasted to become extratropical then dissipate
Doing very well and busy as always. Hope the same applies to you and yours.

Jobu, for the uninformed yet generally more intelligent of our lot, is my personal contribution towards warding off Gulf Coast seeking tropical cyclones, thus serving as a protector of my coastal brethren in "these here" parts. For all of the potential skeptics out there, last year was his first season and the results were, obviously, very good.

Jobu is neither handsome or wealthy, therefore, he could not possibly afford, or bribe, the nail necessary to hang him from a tree. Actually, this would not be an appropriate location for him as there is no honor in having one's body tacked to a tree.

No, in fact, the hairy little guy is ceremoniously, and respectfully, placed on the edge of the pool in a southward facing direction. During this little ritual, we perform the Jobu jig which, due to the proprietary and very scary nature of the dance, will not be described here(okay, it was part of the settlement with my neighbors who were not, shall we say, as appreciative as I had hoped). After placement and performing the Jobu jig(anyone know how to put the trademark symbol on here?), we then sacrifice a Michelob Ultra(you folks thought I would say nutria or armadillo, didn't you?) to the storm gods. At the end of the season, we will repeat this ceremony, just in the reverse direction.

I know we are a cultural bunch down here but we are short.

Life is good, let's keep it that way.


That scares me.
Federal climate, weather and marine scientists will be subject to new restrictions as to what they can say to the media or in public, according to agency documents released today by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER). Under rules posted last week, these federal scientists must obtain agency pre-approval to speak or write, whether on or off-duty, concerning any scientific topic deemed of official interest.

On March 29, 2007, the Commerce Department posted a new administrative order governing Public Communications. This new order covers the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which includes the National Weather Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service. Commerces new order will become effective in 45 days and would repeal a more liberal open science policy adopted by NOAA on February 14, 2006.


& oh there is more here...

This ridiculous gag order ignores the First Amendment and disrespects the world-renowned professionals who work within Commerce agencies, stated PEER Executive Director Jeff Ruch. Under this policy, National Weather Service scientists can only give out name, rank, serial number and the temperature.
Kong-rey has been downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm with winds of 60 knots (10 min) and 995 hPa
Who knows, Gulf, but I'm certain it has something to do with tunnels.
Good day you all. The grey report sure woke me out of my winter slumber. I have a big surprise coming soon. Our house insurance bill.
Leftovers, your not using another handle by chance? I remember a guy that was on here a few years ago that was very informative but quit posting.
This doesn't look good
Link
I still think its a wimpy debut for northern hemisphere storms
New Hurricane Center director says season likely to be above normal.


By CAIN BURDEAU
Associated Press
Posted April 4 2007, 10:10 AM EDT


NEW ORLEANS -- The National Hurricane Center director said Wednesday that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will likely be above normal, but he added ``there are a lot of things that could happen in the atmosphere that could have a bearing on the season.''

Bill Proenza said atmospheric conditions are shaping up to indicate that this year's season will be more active than last year.


Last year, an El Nino pattern undermined the development of tropical systems and the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard had a much-needed respite from devastating hurricanes.

El Nino is a periodic warming of tropical Pacific waters that can affect weather around the world.

But it looks like this year will be busier because the El Nino pattern has diminished and steering currents appear to be shifting in a way that would lead tropical systems toward land rather than back out to the ocean, Proenza said.

It appears that ``we tend to go back to an above normal season'' this year, in line with a theory that the Atlantic is in a decades-long active period that started in 1995, he said.

Proenza's comments at the National Hurricane Conference came a day after William Gray, a top hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, predicted a ``very active'' season Tuesday with at least nine hurricanes and a good chance one will hit the U.S. coast.

Gray predicts 17 named storms this year, five of them major hurricanes. The probability of a major storm making landfall on the U.S. coast this year is 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.

The National Hurricane Center will release its forecast in late May. Hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts for six months.
I see for MichaelSTL the CAA has kicked in :P
hey guys
interesting stuff,H23.
Hey all gotta question I know it's gonna sound stupid but gotta ask. When does the winds in the Atlantic Ocean & Carribean Sea start blowing from the West instead of blowing from the East? Sometimes I think it's kinda neat how it does this .
They don't.
H23 have I done anything to make u upset with me? haven't heard from ya in a while and I just didn't know. I know this isn't the topic I just didn't know if I needed to just hush up and just go back lurking.
Cajun.."This doesn't look good"...........Seems to be the bottom end of the cold front pushing through the lower 48.......It's way to early for any type of true tropical system to form in the Gulf; but, it wouldn't surprise me if we had a few early tropical systems starting to develop in mid-May if the SST's and current forecast predictors stay in place....
No one on here needs to shut up and go back to lurking,and no one has a right to tell others to do that.
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 1:28 PM EDT on April 04, 2007.

H23 have I done anything to make u upset with me? haven't heard from ya in a while and I just didn't know. I know this isn't the topic I just didn't know if I needed to just hush up and just go back lurking.

No offcourse not...I just got home from the gym cause iam off today from work.Just basically looking at some vids my friend at the NWS sent me yesterday.Probably going to go play some b-ball with some friends at the gym later this afternoon.Adrian
Joe b updates parts 2 earlier this morning...

The European climo model forecast that is out confirms suspicions that
this year may have the United States, centered on Florida and the
Gulf, and the Southeast, in its cross hairs for hurricanes. The
forecast of above-normal water temperatures, lower-than-normal
pressures, higher-than-normal rainfall in the 500-mile-wide swath from
east of the Leewards to Florida and into the southeast Gulf is giving
me more than the normal amount of confidence on the forecast from so
far out.


This DOES not exclude the Northeast coast as we did in the years '04
and '05; it simply identifies a possible spray of storms with Florida
as the center point of the spray


More Here
254. Inyo
Why do people even bother with accu-weather?

well i guess the NWS climate forecasts were wrong too.
Posted By: Inyo at 2:21 PM EDT on April 04, 2007.

Why do people even bother with accu-weather?

well i guess the NWS climate forecasts were wrong too.

All were off last year with the development of nino conditions.Really dont understand the bashing with joe as he's someone with great knowledge and was clearly one of the first ones in calling out the development of el nino back in 06.No body really took him serious and look what took place.

Iam happy the media is hypeing this season cause in my personal opinion 2006 was indeed an anomaly and this season has all the ingredients of turning out very active.What kind of steering pattern will be in place i cant say but one thing is for sure we all need to be ready for the possibility of a barrage of storms coming at the U.S. once again.

Use this time wisely.

Adrian's Weather
Good evening. Yes, it is 7:45 p.m. here in Portugal. How is everyone?

No one on here needs to shut up and go back to lurking,and no one has a right to tell others to do that

Just a little fun. Seems I got told off about my comments last night. I am new to this blogging (only second day) and I thought it was all in fun, but it seems some people get get seriously offended if someone else gives an opinion. Can we please keep this to an informational exchange and not try to dominate and kick people off for their opinion? If I am wrong in this please let me know. Perhaps I have the wrong idea about this. Thanks.
Catadjuster.....why aren't you out working those hail claims??
Why can meteorologists predict the weather more accurately during certain months than others? Perhaps I am naive in understanding the weather, but even if some months make it "better" for a meteorologist to predict the forecast, they still aren't always correct.

MetStudent1,

The point of this particular topic isn't that some months are easier to predict than others. It's more a question of how far out in the future you are predicting, and how much information you have to work with.

In otherwords ... if you're going to estimate how many hurricanes are going to occur between June and November, it's much more difficult to estimate that number in January than it is to estimate it in June.
Will this cold front that is hitting Lafayette, LA work to cool off the watertemps in the Gulf of Mexico?
Also, when should we expect updated numbers on this site? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.atl.indices
263. Inyo
don't particulates actually cool the atmosphere? or at least moderate temperatures?
If there are enough of them. And I think it depends on the type of particulate.
Still looking forward to what would happen should an EF5 tornado hit Chicago... :-)
Dallas would do ;-)
Thats where I HAD them..it was a Cat 1! ..not a Tropical Storm!..A-ha!..it was a conspiracy. Plus the shear relaxed. It wasnt MY fault. They ALL lied about their forecasts. Mine was most certainly correct! 6
hey guys, where is a hurricane most likely to strike the US?
271. eye
I would say along the coast?
Based upon one of the NOAA/NHC maps showing the major hurricane strikes on the US in the last 100 years, the highest probabilities are Eastern South Florida/Keys, Gulf from FL Panhandle to Texas, and the Carolinas region.......These are the three major "zones" of danger for the US............
All I can really say is, who ever and whenever they get hit, they should do everything in their power to protect their family and themselves. Don't wait for the state to save you. It's really that simple.
Iam happy the media is hypeing this season cause in my personal opinion 2006 was indeed an anomaly and this season has all the ingredients of turning out very active.What kind of steering pattern will be in place i cant say but one thing is for sure we all need to be ready for the possibility of a barrage of storms coming at the U.S. once again.

They said that in 2006, too, and look what happened. I don't have much confidence in an April forecast. But you are right about preparing.
Wishcasterboy, you are right!
I have an interesting question for all here. When do you remember South Florida having such a severe drought and then having this type of hurricane predictions? It seems that when we do not see alot of rain during what would be the rainy season for us, we get hit by something tropical.

Now here is the second interesting question, we saw last year a late season El Nino. Now we are seeing an early development of La Nina, in past times shouldn't El Nino if it develops stay with us for a while instead of just dropping out and then the early effects of La Nina start appearing? Has there been a climate shift of sorts, allowing these weather patters in a sense to come in late or early season?
This year with a nina/neutral being around a more favorable environment will indeed be present.There are a number of reasons why 06 was a slow season.The first and most important was the development of el nino which was clearly missed early on.Frequent SAL outbreaks also added to unfavorable conditions being present and if thats not enough ULL'S were all over the atlantic keeping tropical development and a minimum.With a Nina/neutral this season a more favorable enviroment will be in place which should amount to a pretty active season.
Everybody in the eastern U.S. better be preparing for a massive freeze - when was the last time Florida had a freeze in April?!



I fully expect massive destruction to occur where I live, no fruit harvest this year for many farmers... this is what happens now because temperatures go crazily above normal for weeks on end with summer-like temperatures, which is really abnormal... instead of going above and below normal every few days or so. Such long periods of above normal temperatures (without going below normal for weeks) have also occurred three times since the winter of 2005-2006... and I don not recall it ever happening before then...
23, got an interesting item for you. I took a look into the El Nino/La Nina Stats page on the NOAA website. The cold/warm stats specifically: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Okay, if you have a look at that page. Go to the current year and look at the first figure of 0.8 with a warm reading attached to it. The only other time that we had a reading like that during a La Nina year was 1964. Now taking that in mind I researched that year, this is what I found:

The season was slightly above average, with twelve total storms and six hurricanes; unusually, all six of the hurricanes strengthened into major (Category 3) storms.

Any chance of a repeat, seeing that we have somewhat of the same characteristics going for us this year?
NHC conference worksh0ps Thursday Schedule.NOTE:..First row, meterology..class #4 3:30 - 5pm. A must see Link
Meteorology

"Hurricane Forecasts Are Imperfect Get Over It!"
1964. Now taking that in mind I researched that year, this is what I found:

1964 was during the inactive "cycle"... we need to compare to years since 1995 - the current "cycle" (if there even is a cycle because it is occurring worldwide). Also, the current La Nina has been developing with incredible speed; in fact (from CSU's April outlook):

The rapid dissipation of the weak to moderate El Nio event during the latter part of this winter has been quite impressive. Table 3 displays the five most significant cooling episodes of SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region from October-November to the following years February-March time period. Based on this metric, using data since 1950, the observed cooling during this time period in 2006-2007 is the strongest cooling on record.

This comes after El Nino had the fastest warming on record (mentioned in one of last year's outlooks).
(plywoodstatenative) here's a article from good old friend Jim Lushine on Hurricane Behavior and May Rainfall.It may hold true this season.


A link between the behavior of hurricanes and the amount of rain that falls in South Florida in May has been suggested by Jim Lushine, a meteorologist and weather forecaster at the National Weather Service in Miami.

Lushine, who has predicted South Florida weather for 33 years, told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel he suspects there is a link between May rainfall and the chances of hurricanes striking South Florida.

When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. "It's kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us," Lushine explained.

His outlook for this May: Perhaps normal, which Lushine said could mean some close calls for South Florida. He is quick to note that there are no guarantees. But bolstering his theory, last May turned out to be a very dry month, with just 2 inches of rain.

In contrast, May 2003 dumped a whooping 14 inches of rain on the area and, if Lushine's theory holds water, shielded the region from what was an even more active hurricane season than last year's, which produced 15 named storms.

Of the 16 named storms in 2003, only Tropical Storm Henri bothered Florida, and just barely. By the time it crossed Central Florida, Henri was just a pesky tropical depression.

"These are two extremes, with 2003 being great for us and 2004 being terrible for us," Lushine said. "What usually happens is something in between those kinds of patterns, and that's the kind of pattern we're in right now. It looks like this May could be a 'tweener' year."

That could mean the six-month 2005 hurricane season, which begins June 1, may be reminiscent of the 1999 season, when a parade of storms marched toward Florida but veered north before striking. The most memorable example was Floyd, a behemoth that taunted Florida's east coast before slamming the Carolinas.

Like all hurricanes, Floyd's path was controlled by the transient low and high pressure systems in the atmosphere, the same lows and highs that influence South Florida's rainfall.

When they're near, low-pressure systems generally protect Florida during hurricane season. Spinning counterclockwise, the same direction as a hurricane, they push storms away. Lighter in weight, they also allow air to rise, producing more rain--hence, the correlation Lushine found between rainy Mays and fewer hurricanes.

Conversely, high-pressure systems blow clockwise, blocking hurricanes from changing course. Heavier in weight, they also cause air to sink, producing less rain.

So, what makes May so special in determining hurricane activity?

May, Lushine said, usually marks the transition between South Florida's two seasons, wet and dry and the pressure patterns present during the month often persist.

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 7:10 PM EDT on April 04, 2007.

Everybody in the eastern U.S. better be preparing for a massive freeze - when was the last time Florida had a freeze in April?!

Not down here in south florida temps will be dipping into the upper fiftys to low sixtys but thats it quick warm up after that.
Is there anyway that we can relate the climate changes that we are seeing to the severe outbreak of tornados and such of that sort. That includes the unusual winter that some areas had this year into late last year. There is a climate shift going on, is this the result of mother nature in a sense not being able to keep up with the shifting of the climates.
The bermuda high vanished without a trace! The nearest high is all the way in the Texas area (pertaining to steering winds)
something is up, where could the High have gone?
288. Inyo

Now here is the second interesting question, we saw last year a late season El Nino. Now we are seeing an early development of La Nina, in past times shouldn't El Nino if it develops stay with us for a while instead of just dropping out and then the early effects of La Nina start appearing? Has there been a climate shift of sorts, allowing these weather patters in a sense to come in late or early season?


I've heard talk by some that global warming may cause an increase in the 'wavelength speed' of ENSO. From the same source (and yes it is speculation), I have heard theories that prior to the last 40 or 50 years, the cycle was actually much slower than it was now. Unfortunately, we don't have real data to back that up. we'll see!
289. Inyo
**double post, ignore this**
SOME CLIMATE ZONES ARE TO DISAPPEAR ALL TOGETHER OVER NEXT 10 TO 20 YRS AND NEW CLIMATE ZONES WILL DEVELOPE SUB TROPICAL ZONES WILL EXPAND ALL THE WHILE TEMPERATE ZONES WILL CONTRACT WWHILE SUB ARTIC AND ARTIC ZONES WILL ALL BUT DISSAPEAR ALONG WITH MUCH OF GLOBAL ICE COVERAGE IT IS A DOOM A GLOOM FORECAST BUT THINGS ARE HAPPENING AT A MUCH FASTER RATE THEN FORECASTED AS USUAL NOT TO MENTION THE EXPECT SEA LEVEL RISE THATS TO GREATLY IMPACT THE US SE MORE THAN ANY WHERE ELSE ALSO WEATHER PATTERNS AND STORM INTENSITYS ARE TO CHANGE DONT BE SURPISE TO HAVE LARGER AND MORE POWERFUL CLIMATIC EVENTS LIKE NEVER EXPERIENCE BEFORE THERE ARE FORCES AT WORK ON A LARGE SCALE AND IT ONLY THE BEGINNING AND WE WILL ADAPT AND RELOCATED AND ALTER OUR WAY OF LIFE TO FIT THE NEW PROGRAM WEATHER WE WANT TO OR NOT
Posted By: airman45 at 7:48 PM GMT on April 03, 2007.

Just remember, for millions of years, during the dinosaur era, the Earth was MUCH warmer than it is now, and teeming with plant and animal life. There were no polar ice caps and there is evidence of tropical forests as far north as Alaska. Then the Earth cooled, ice ages came and went, and life went on. Just because our civilization is based on a few thousand stable years and cant tolerate change is no reason to scream that a little warming will destroy the Earth. Be flexible and adapt to change, dont fight it. What irritates me the most is these politicians and businesspeople saying for the "masses" to cut back while they drive their limosines and use enormous amounts of energy in their mansions and private jets!


AMEN!

Actually, for about 90% of the earth's history it has been alot warmer!

I never liked the snow anyways.
hell there was a freeze on April 23, 1993 in Tallahassee.
Tallahassee will have to get to 28 to break the monthly record
is no reason to scream that a little warming will destroy the Earth

It isn't about the earth being destroyed (LOL); rather, it is about the effects that the changes would have on human civilization.
hello
Gainesville, FL has also had a freeze as late as April 17, 1962
*waves* @ Kris
Wikipedia:

ENSO and global warming
A few years ago, attribution of recent changes (if any) in ENSO or predictions of future changes were very weak.[6] More recent results[7] tend to suggest that the projected tropical warming may follow a somewhat El Nio-like spatial pattern, without necessarily altering the variability about this pattern while the ENSO cycle may be minimally shortened[8].
On the other hand, we had our second earliest ever 90 degree day today, and set a record high today of 90 vs 88 in 1963
plywoodstatenative I sent you some articles on your email and also left you one a litte up in the blog.
And how about the NHC director talking about the steering currents?That's kind of early for an actual NHC person to do that,isn't it?
My hurricane prediction is that no major hurricane will make landfall on the Georgia coast this year.
They rarely do.
Once every 80 years.
That's why I live here :P
The last major to make landfall in my state was a Cat 4 on Oct 2, 1898
Kind of weird how rare it is,given the low latitude.It's cause of the shape of the coastline.
That and luck :)
There's no such thing as luck in weather.Averages are averages,LOL.
Your coast is paralell to the typical track of hurricanes at that latitude.Florida and NC,on the other hand,are perpendicular to tracks at their latitudes.
Posted By: plywoodstatenative at 6:29 PM CDT on April 04, 2007.

Is there anyway that we can relate the climate changes that we are seeing to the severe outbreak of tornados and such of that sort. That includes the unusual winter that some areas had this year into late last year. There is a climate shift going on, is this the result of mother nature in a sense not being able to keep up with the shifting of the climates.


Well, as for the tornadoes, ENSO can affect the location and intensity of tornadoes, such as El Nino having more in the southeast and La Nina having more in the central U.S.; however, there is no correlation (that I have seen) between the total number of tornadoes and ENSO. The changes are due to changes in upper air patterns, such as the jet stream. The freqency of tornadoes appears to be related to some other climate pattern; for example, 2004 set the record with 1,819 tornadoes but years before and after were not as active; on the other hand, 2006 and 2007 have had very early starting tornado seasons, and 2007 has had far more deadly tornadoes than an average year (in fact, 2007 has been the deadliest year since 1998).
its the shear that binds us

Perfectly normal for this time of year...Should continue for another 4-6 weeks.
And then...watch out.
73.8 now after 90 today, just some weak cold air advection kicking in. Still, after 90 degrees, weak CAA is better than none at all :D
how long has it beenf from the last time there was no dry air her? i nevere seen this go has go this long with out seeing dry air her

lol
shear is normal this time of year? no way...lol i thought hurricane season started in December
its the dry air that binds us as well, although it is significantly weaker than this time last year

im going with 18-21 named systems, 10-13 of those being hurricanes, 5-7 of those being major, and 4-5 hitting the continental United States for the 2007 season. Hell if Dr. Gray at CSU can throw predictions out of the air so can I
all weathermen are just glorified educated guessers anyway, kinda like doctors
StoryOfTheCane that is not dry air that show you how strong the dust is it is not dry air that the map you post
its the Saharan Air Layer, and yes it is dry air. The map you posted is water vapor.
no its dust not dry air
no the map you post was shows the dust the map i post shows the dry air
there can still be water vapor with the dry Saharan Air Layer, just not that much. Look how that front is dissipating as it approaches the SAL. The SAL is just a layer, when strong it prevents significant accumulations of precipitation and cloud cover.
this map show you the dust not dry air

lol

this map show you where the air is and where ths moist air is i and right now it is vary moist air and it been like that for some time now

lol
the water vapor is not that impressive in the Saharan area. just because theres a small amount doesnt mean anything. look at the purple regions, dont you think if the SAL was weak there would be strong vapor throughout the continent? The SAL is pretty strong and producing fairly dry air in the region.
Actually, the SAL maps shows dry air as well as dust; take a look at the East Pacific; as far as I know, the SAL doesn't go almost to the West Pacific:



I have never seen dust falling here either...
no one is right, we are arguing cats and dogs here, all im saying is the SAL is a layer of dry air AKA dust and it is definitely strong at the moment.
the water vapor is not that impressive in the Saharan area

?

I thought that browns indicated dry air and black-white moist air; the purple/blue blobs over Africa are thunderstorms (which show up as very high moisture), as this indicates:

its good to see ya JP, how come you weren't on here for the ladder part of last year's season?
hello JP and thanks
yeah but normally areas of strong convection tend to have large areas of vapor surrounding them, which the SAL is preventing in this case. The SAL is strong enough to ward of the weaker amounts of water vapor, but not the stronger convections.
Dust is good and bad. Good in the sense that it can disrupt tropical waves and keep storms from forming across Atlantic. Bad in the sense that these waves may develop further west, once they've escaped the dust, and more readily impact the united states.Dust outbeaks are quite normal for this time of the year.Adrian
what season....LOL!
lol good point, last year was boring, we're in for a treat this year though
The prevailing easterlies that bring the dust clouds are the same trade winds that blow hurricanes toward the United States and Caribbean every year.
23 when was the last time you saw this vary moist and lasting for this long ?

lol
wow there is no dust in the Caribbean and gulf to talk about
The air looks moist to me... the only dry air that I see is over the Sahara:

which means the SAL makes it impossible for the storm to intensify until it gets out of it
STL how long has the moist air been like that ?
its not that moist
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:04 PM EDT on April 04, 2007.

That goes with the theory that the weaker the system the further south it stays in relation, correct Adrian?

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:04 PM EDT on April 04, 2007.

A tropical systems path is influenced by a couple of conditions.To name a few Cold fronts, trade winds, the Gulf Stream, even the storm's own intensity.
Indeed it is moist:



Values below -23 are favorable for development, according to the genesis product description.
i would consider the faint white areas to be fairly dry as well, only the darker whites and blues/purples seem "moist" in my opinion
wheres your blog at JP? and more importantly where is that one annoying guy, someone help me I forgot his name
I don't think the overall circulation pattern is conductive for SAL or w/e the dust storms from Africa's called. It is still a very much baroclinic zone over those parallels (you can see the front blowing west to east). It is when the ITCZ comes up over the equator (which lags behind the sun) that the winds blow from east to west... and the dust from Africa to Atlantic... I think.
im not arguing that its more moist than usual, im just saying its not significant, fairly average
seriously remember the crazy guy that always tells people they're going to be eating crow, what was his name?
MichaelSTL, that graph you just showed says its below average for moisture right now.
lol as annoying as that guy was he did crack me up
no it wasnt Gulfscotsman, i wanna say he had Hurricane in his name
The bermuda high vanished without a trace! The nearest high is all the way in the Texas area (pertaining to steering winds)
Posted By: hurricane23 at 10:10 PM EDT on April 04, 2007.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:04 PM EDT on April 04, 2007.

That goes with the theory that the weaker the system the further south it stays in relation, correct Adrian


To answer that question a little better basically the clockwise rotation of air associated with high pressure zones is the driving force that causes many hurricanes to deviate from their east-to-west movement and start a northward turn.Adrian
HurricaneChris?
no, i remember he would always brag that he documented all of the right predictions to the Katrina hurricane and he said he would hold classes on the blog at certain times, man i cant believe i cant remember his name
STORMTOP?
Ah... StormTop!

He always said stuff like that, not to mention that he wanted a Cat 6 to hit New Orleans (because he lives(ed) there).
Taz there is a 1018 High near the Bahamas..
YES!!!!!! STORMTOP lol that guy is crazy
STL you heard about the tune up the GFS might be getting?
: HadesGodWyvern is that high going to get stronger?
hey MichaelSTL are you still doing that e-mail thing with the storms?
i know how to make this blog exciting, add a point system where all of us vote on things like landfall, frequency, intensity, etc and keep a leaderboard, thatd be pretty fun and it would eliminate a lot of the bickering
hey MichaelSTL are you still doing that e-mail thing with the storms?

Huh? I think you are talking about somebody else; I never did anything like that - Email? If I do follow anything, I usually post it in my blog, or in other blogs.
yes what drop that by aron blog i think he may go for it

yes whats have a point system
oh sorry, mightve been turtle, i cant remember that far back
that sounds like a plan JP, we should just make a seperate account on here for keeping track of that stuff, have everyone e-mail their predictions by a certain specified time
i think cat 5 land gulf on the gulf coast this year if i got that right that would be 500 points or some in like that LOL
hell we can have one leaderboard for Preseason Predictions and one leaderboard for Storm Predictions
The first storm could develop earlier than anybody might expect:



That was from last year - when hostile conditions were present most of the season. If this happens this year, it could possibly become more than just an invest.
we should have one prediction prior to the season for how many storms, hurricanes, majors and landfalls, and another prediction for individual storms throughout the season, handling the ones during the season though could prove tricky
hey JP if we did get a cat 5 land fall could i have my 500 points? that is if we do get one
or do you think we should just try to predict everything before it starts, from landfall to intensity?
My numbers for this year are 16/9/5 with the first storm developing on june 20th.
actually yeah thats a good idea down there below JP
or JP why wont we do this

if a hurricane makes land fall in the USA olny you get points for it like


so if a cat 1 make land fall you would get 100 points


if a cat 2 makes land fall you get 250 ponts

if a cat 3 make land fall you get 365 point for it


if a cat 4 make land fall you get 400 ponts


and if a ca 5 with winds of 160 mph you get 700 point if winds at cat 5 make land fall any where from 170 to 190 you get any where from 1000 to 1500 point for it


or some in like that
yea thatll be cool JP, lets do it
well i was olny helping out i try to help oh well
do what StoryOfTheCane?
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:54 AM GMT on April 05, 2007.

I thought we would have it like this EXAMPLE

one sheet: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors, 6 landfalls; you get 10 points for each one correctly, plus you get 5 points for breakdown of hurricanes into CATs

Other sheet: Have individul storm predictions like this:

Andrea June 26, 70mph, yes(landfall), FL PAN
100 pts. if a cane passes over your house.
MINUS 200 pts if your'e at home !
lol pottery
yeah JP damn good thinkin
alright sounds good
hey guys
JP mail for you i am the 1st
Taz,look at this product description for the dust maps:


GOES-West Split Window:

Background: This imagery is created by differencing the 12.0 and 10.7m infrared channels on the GOES-West imager. The algorithm is sensitive to the presence of dry and/or dusty air in the lower atmosphere (~600-850 hPa or ~4,500-1,500 m) and is denoted by the yellow to red shading.

Uses: This imagery is useful for monitoring the position and movement of dry air masses such as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Animations of the imagery are useful for tracking these features and can also help identify the source of the dry and/or dusty air that is indicated in the imagery.

Notes:

Dry air and suspended aerosols (e.g. mineral dust) both contribute to a positive "SAL" signal in this imagery, but the relative contribution of each cannot be determined from this imagery alone.
Polar air originating from the mid-latitudes produces a positive signal in this imagery that is similar to that of the SAL. This is because both air masses contain substantial dry air in the lower to middle troposphere. The JAVA movie is a useful tool for determining which type of air mass is being indicated in the imagery.
Areas of very cold water (e.g. west of South America) can affect the split window algorithm and produce a false positive "SAL" signal. These regions can be easily identified using the JAVA movie because they tend not to move or change form for several consecutive days.



See?It detects both dry air and dust,and those are the yellow areas on the maps.
nice idea. I'm in too ! Be posting my entry just as soon as I consult the frogs around here.They know these things....
weatherboykris ok come to my blog
anybody in here affected by the Menu Foods recalls? How tragic to lose a pet over something like this. im off for the night, ill send ya my predictions soon JP, night all
I just made my hurricane bracket...with Florida and Texas in the championship round. I have Florida winning, but it was close.

The final score will be Florida 3, Texas 2.
More From The Times-Picayune | Subscribe To The Times-Picayune
Storm forecasters lack tools, official says
Key satellite is living on borrowed time

Thursday, April 05, 2007
By Mark Schleifstein

Federal money for hurricane research is at least $700,000 below what it should be, and that could delay improvements in the tools used by hurricane forecasters to warn the public about the size and location of major storms, National Hurricane Center Director Bill Proenza warned Wednesday.

Speaking at the annual National Hurricane Conference, Proenza also warned that if a research satellite that's already two years past its expected life span fails, which he said could happen at any time, 48-hour forecasts of hurricane landfalls could be off by 10 percent and 72-hour forecasts could be off by 16 percent.

That could make it more difficult to evacuate coastal areas because the Hurricane Center would widen the geographic area along coastlines that receive advance warning of hurricanes, he said.






A replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite would take at least four years to shoot into space, if the $375 million to $400 million cost of the orb and its launch vehicle were available. But the money's not there, Proenza said.

The satellite provides surface wind speeds and directions used in computer models that predict hurricane storm paths for the National Hurricane Center. But the information also is used year-round by local National Weather Service meteorologists in writing marine forecasts, he said.

Active season expected

Proenza said a National Weather Service seasonal forecast of hurricane activity, which will be released in May, is likely to indicate a greater-than-normal number of hurricanes, similar to the prediction made Tuesday by Colorado State University climatologists Philip Klotzbach and Bill Gray.

"We know that El Nio (a warm water condition in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the Americas) suppressed activity last year," Proenza said.

The warm water in the Pacific is believed to cause upper level westerly winds that create wind shear that blows the tops off of hurricane-forming clouds.

But this year, El Nio has disappeared and looks like it will be replaced by its opposite, cool-water condition, known as La Nia. The cooler water is believed to cause more easterly winds in upper levels of the atmosphere over areas of the Atlantic, which creates more favorable conditions for the formation of hurricanes. There still are some wild cards that could reduce hurricane activity this year, though, Klotzbach said in an interview Wednesday. The biggest one, he said is the potential that dusty, dry air blowing off the Sahara Desert in Africa will reduce the chance of storm formation in the far Atlantic. Just such a condition helped limit storm formation in 2006.

But information about the potential for the dust to be a factor won't be known for a few more weeks, Klotzbach said. That information will be included in his late May update of hurricane activity.

The estimate released by Klotzbach and Gray on Tuesday called for 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Klotzbach said there's a 49 percent chance of a major hurricane -- a Category 3 or stronger storm -- hitting the Gulf Coast this year, well above the historical average of 30 percent.






Gray retirement

Gray also announced this year that Klotzbach, a graduate student, has replaced him as the lead author on their predictions. Klotzbach said he hopes to continue the forecasts after this year, depending on where he ends up working after completing work on his doctorate degree in meteorology.

Gray said Wednesday that his retirement is allowing him to take the lesser role in the forecasting process, and that he's financing his own work from his retirement benefits. The research is also underwritten by grants from the National Science Foundation and Lexington Insurance Co.

Attending this week's conference is a mixture of government, business and media meteorologists and a wide variety of emergency management officials.

The conference also addressed rebuilding and flood protection efforts after Katrina. Federal Gulf Coast rebuilding czar Donald Powell told the attendees that recovery efforts in Louisiana and Mississippi are a lot more successful than much of the nation understands.

He pointed to the progress the Army Corps of Engineers has made to rebuild breached sections of the levee system to greater strength than before Katrina as an example of how the area's safety has been improved.

"Is there more work to do?" he said. "Absolutely. This is a most complex engineering task, difficult, time consuming, complex. But this president is committed to making sure the levee system is stronger than it has ever been." Powell also hinted at a new program aimed at jump-starting the slow process of rebuilding homes and businesses in the area.


"One of the interesting pieces of data we discovered about New Orleans is that 57 percent of the people in the parish were renters before Katrina," he said. "Now, homeownership is one of the cornerstones of being an American. It's critically important we rebuild the city's rental stock to help the community come back, but in the long term, it's better for people to become homeowners."







So his office is negotiating with capital investment businesses about underwriting the construction of new homes that residents could first rent and then have their rental payments applied to the purchase price.

The initial proposal would represent a $100 million investment, he said.

Powell warned conference- goers, who are from all across the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, that a major lesson to be learned from Katrina is that communities with the best chance of surviving a catastrophic event are those that are healthy before the event.

"I remember coming down here and looking into the eyes of people along the Gulf Coast and thinking about two words: one was hope and the other was trust," he said. "And the hope for a brighter tomorrow was not there.

"I remember taking that message back to Washington that we need to build hope down here," he said.

"You need to put yourself beyond defeat," Powell said. "Be sure that the condition of your community and all the vital quality-of-life issues are strong now.

"For as strong as a community is, if it is hit by a catastrophic event, the quicker it recovers," he said.
N.O. takes a beating in census
Population decrease tops all metro areas
Thursday, April 05, 2007
By Coleman Warner

In a finding not likely to surprise Hurricane Katrina victims, a U.S. Census Bureau report made public today shows the New Orleans area suffered the greatest population loss among 361 metropolitan regions between 2000 and 2006 -- while Atlanta, Dallas and Houston, destinations for many displaced New Orleanians, ranked first, second and third in gains.

The seven-parish New Orleans area lost 292,000 people, falling from about 1.3 million to 1 million, according to the new analysis. As a result, the New Orleans area's ranking among the 361 metro areas slid from 38th to 50th. The figures cover the parishes of Orleans, Jefferson, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist and St. Tammany.

The Gulfport-Biloxi area of Mississippi, population 227,904 in 2006, had the next greatest decline, also attributable to Katrina, at 7 percent, a loss of 18,286 people.






The New Orleans area's population losses contrasted with large gains in many metro areas across the region. Among the 50 fastest-growing metro areas, 25 were in the South, followed by 23 in the West.

The Atlanta region gained 890,211 people from 2000 to 2006, an increase of 21 percent, bumping up its national ranking from 11th to ninth. Its total population stood at 5.1 million at the time of the July estimate.

Dallas had the second-largest increase in metro-area population, with 842,449, a gain of 16 percent, raising its national ranking from fifth to fourth and bringing its total count to 6 million. Houston had the third-largest with an increase of 824,547, or nearly 18 percent. The Houston area's population count totaled 5.5 million in July, raising its ranking from eighth to sixth.

Population estimates for periods before and after Hurricane Katrina's August 2005 landfall show big increases in the numbers of people moving into the Houston and Atlanta metro areas, but the agency offered no fresh analysis of Katrina's specific impact.

But the report lends credence to conclusions drawn by demographers and state officials in December, following another Census Bureau report, that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made history in altering where people live. The December report showed that Louisiana's population shrank by 220,000 people, or 5 percent, in the year after Katrina and Rita, reflecting an outmigration not seen since wholesale community disruptions of the World War II era. NOTE..Thats all I'll post today..as Im reaching my post LIMIT.. Dont want to blog over these contests and other important post...

The hurricane center's new director said budget pressures and the loss of a satellite could damage the accuracy of forecasts.

BY MARTIN MERZER
MiamiHerald.com

NEW ORLEANS -- Mounting a challenge to Congress and his superiors in Washington, the new director of the National Hurricane Center warned Wednesday that forecasters and researchers are being bled of funding and other resources at a dangerous time.

Bill Proenza, who took over the post early this year, said inflation has eroded the center's $5.8 million budget, sharp cuts have damaged an important research program and a crucial satellite is running on borrowed time, with no replacement in sight.


Loss of that satellite could reduce the accuracy of some hurricane forecasts by 16 percent, he said.

All of this comes as millions of new residents flock to the coast, including many drawn by South Florida's waterfront construction boom. At the same time, scientists say the nation is stuck in a decades-long period of increased hurricane activity and that the six-month season that begins June 1 could be busier than usual.

''The amount of money being invested in the hurricane warning program isn't up to the level of the threat that hurricanes present to this nation,'' Proenza said. ``This must be considered the largest natural disaster threat to this country.''

His comments came during the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, attended by about 2,000 forecasters, emergency managers, vendors and others.

AUSPICIOUS DEBUT

In some ways, the conference served as Proenza's public debut, and it indicated that his tenure at the hurricane center in West Miami-Dade County could be provocative and somewhat confrontational, at least when it comes to fighting for resources.

''I'm not backing down on this,'' he said. ``All of us are charged with the highest calling -- the protection of life.''

Proenza, 62, was raised in South Florida. A government forecaster and manager for more than 40 years, he most recently served as director of the National Weather Service's Southern region, based in Fort Worth, Texas.

According to colleagues, Proenza has earned a reputation as a skilled bureaucratic battler within the weather service and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, especially in competing for resources.

He rose to his new challenge in a manner far more public and bold than that of his predecessor, Max Mayfield, who retired in January:

Proenza said the hurricane center's budget for labor, logistical support and similar costs has remained flat during the past few years.

''Actually, a little less, when you factor in inflation,'' he said.

Proenza declined several opportunities to share his preferred budget figure, but he said he was surprised to learn that the hurricane center ``with all its visibility and importance, has to scrape for crumbs.''

NOAA spokesmen said they had no comment on Proenza's remarks, but they have noted in the past that budgets are tight throughout government and many components of the agency must compete for funding.

Separately, Proenza said that an unusually productive research program, the Joint Hurricane Test Bed, suffered cuts of more than $500,000 in recent years.

Now funded at about $1 million, the program specializes in projects that have a good chance of quickly contributing to the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.

In the past few years, test bed projects have improved computerized forecast models and allowed scientists to create new, user-friendly graphics, according to Rick Knabb, a lead hurricane forecaster who once coordinated the program.

''Our forecasts don't have zero errors yet,'' Knabb said, ``so there always is a need to get better.''

In 2005, The Miami Herald's Blind Eye series reported that defective buoys, weather balloons and other equipment also were inhibiting progress in improving forecasts, and stagnant budgets placed constraints on hurricane scientists.

Late that year, Congress approved more than $25 million in emergency spending for new and improved equipment -- money that is separate from the hurricane center's budget.

Proenza drew particular attention to the pending demise of an important satellite launched in 1999 and designed to operate for five years.

Called QuikSCAT, the device allows scientists to measure wind speed and direction in storms that are well out to sea.

It contributes year-round to marine forecasts but is especially important during hurricane season, when it helps experts determine when a tropical system has formed and how fierce it might be.

''Obviously, QuikSCAT is well beyond its life span, and we're very concerned,'' Proenza said. ``And there's nothing in the works to replace it.''

Loss of that satellite could damage the accuracy of two-day hurricane forecasts by 10 percent and three-day forecasts by 16 percent, he said.

A new, modernized version would cost about $375 million, he said, and would take at least four years to build and launch.

''But we don't have the money, so we're probably looking at longer than that,'' Proenza said.

TARGET OF CRITICISM

In January, a panel of the National Academy of Sciences criticized NOAA and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for allowing QuikSCAT and other weather satellites to deteriorate, and a report in The Miami Herald closely examined the issue.

Proenza and others noted that the risks have never been greater, largely because more people settle in hurricane-vulnerable regions every year. Fifty-three percent of all Americans now live within 50 miles of the coast, Proenza said.

''It's a problem,'' said David Paulison, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. ``We continue to build in harm's way.''

A South Florida native who still has a house in Davie, Paulison said he recently visited downtown Miami and was shocked.

''I couldn't believe the condos going up there,'' he said during a round-table discussion. 'You go, `Dang, how are you going to evacuate all of these people if something happens?' ''
Good morning every1.
NWS in miami puts in place a New Upper Air Oberservation System...

They now have GPS on ballons order get better position on there readings.

More here
BAH! Miami should have their own darn satellite!
LA NINA IN THE NEXT 3 MONTHS

New Climate Perdiction Center update for april...

SEE HERE
each year my friend and i pick 2 storms each. from the picked storms, the storm that comes the closest to key west, that person wins a dinner from the loser. we have played this game for about 6 years and neither one of us has won. you would have thought that one of us would have won in 2005, but of the 4 hurricanes that brushed the keys, none where picked :( this might be the year that both of us win! it might the year that both of us lose too ! LOSE OUR HOUSES! LOSE OUR FAMILIES! LOSE OUR LIVES!!!!!
Posted By: keywestdingding at 9:39 AM EDT on April 05, 2007.

each year my friend and i pick 2 storms each. from the picked storms, the storm that comes the closest to key west, that person wins a dinner from the loser. we have played this game for about 6 years and neither one of us has won. you would have thought that one of us would have won in 2005, but of the 4 hurricanes that brushed the keys, none where picked :( this might be the year that both of us win! it might the year that both of us lose too ! LOSE OUR HOUSES! LOSE OUR FAMILIES! LOSE OUR LIVES!!!!!

Take the proper action and use this time wisely and create a hurricane plan for you and family members also always listen to your emergency management officials and if your asked to evacuate you should strongerly consider doing so cause if you dont your on your own and you may put you and familys live in danger.My point is every hurricane needs to be taken seriously wheather its a CA1 or CAT4 and if you live in a hurricane prone area you be prepared from june1-nov30.Adrian
H23 Hey I've already got a plan I'm leaving there's no way I will stay thru another Hurricane.They scare me to bad. But I really hate leaving my house but I'd rather be alive cause u can always rebuild/ but you can get your life back.
I see things have picked up in here since this time last week! 400+ posts already! LOL

I'm watching with interest the forecasts as they come out. What I'm more interested in right now, though, is what is being forecast about steering patterns and the location of that AB high.

I guess that's one reason why landfall forecasts in particular are so hard to get right.

Sheri the best we can do is be prepared and the rest is up to mother nature.Honestly i consider myself a very lucky person having gone threw the full extent of andrews power which i might point out completely destroyed my house there was nothing left standing but the room i was in with my family.Material things can always be replaced but your life can't and its very important to keep that in mind.Overall just make sure your prepared and follow the advise of your emergency management officials.If you have any questions on how to prepare feel to read up on my hurricane preparedness page on my website.

My Hurricanes preparedness page
Will this generate our first invest?

Much of the medium to extended guidance is now indicating
some energy embedded within a northwest flow regime aloft developing a
surface low/wave in the western Gulf and subsequently moving this
feature eastward through sun. If the guidance is correct...this would
result in cloudy...cooler...rainy and even breezy weather for most
of the central Gulf Coast region this weekend before conditions
begin to improve Monday and beyond as high pressure returns to the
lower Mississippi Valley.
I doupt it as shear is quite high in the gulf at the present time.

Here is a better view of good rains chances for florida?

If indeed we get a weak to moderate Nina it will open the doors for a eastcoast hits as it supports a displaced bermuda high and a path towards the eastcoast.

Here is a quick sample of surface pressures from a few la nina's.Note the higher than normal pressures in the north central atlantic and the lower pressures into the central atlantic to the southeast coastline.

(Dangerous setup for the eastcoast)


H23: I'll never forget when Hurricane Fredric came through I was living in Saraland,Al outside of Mobile, Al was just a kid and it took the roof off of our house. That why I'm scared to death of them and I have always vowed that I would have a plan and make sure my children and all is safe. Sheri
William Gray's prediction of 17 hurricanes this coming season is a no brainer. His prediction that at least one could hit the U.S. mainland is also an easy call and is nothing more than a wild guess which the Farmer's Almanac could make just as well.

If you go back to 2005 you would have to take into consideration the pockets of extremely warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, near the Gulf Coast states, around 90 degrees, to predict if any hurricane could be as stong and devastating as Katrina. But that phenomenon is not predictable because it's an isolated condition which shifts locations througout the Gulf.

Like the book "Isacc's Storm," based on a U.S. forecaster Issac Cline, too many forecasters presume they have computer models that can take in all the variations in the atmosphere and predict either dire or benign weather events. In Isaac's Storm it was accepted orthodoxy based on the "Law of Storms" that any tropical storm or hurricane that moved into the Gulf of Mexico would certainly veer off to the northeast, away from the U.S. mainland. Of course, he was wrong about the Galveston storm in 1900 which killed about 6,000 people.

Today, computer models, for all their ability to crunch numbers at lightning speed, still are not programmed to account for the myriad and infinite variations in the Earth's atmosphere. Some biases, however, can be computed accurately and factored into equations.

For example, older temperature sensors used in the U.S. before technological advances eliminated most of the need for manual readings, had an accuracy range of plus or minus 2 degrees (F). Today's automated stations all have been commissioned with a temperature fluctuation of plus or minus 5 degrees (F). In other words, it's entirely possible to be off as much as 10 degrees before temperature equipment might become suspect. As a result of thousands of readings, in the above cases the known bias can be factored into forecasts.

Another known bias involves tipping bucket rain gauges. Most climatologists have accepted the fact that the mechanical tipping bucket will lose up to 20% of the total measured rainfall amount, mostly during heavy downpours that occur during hurricanes and severe thunderstorms. Again, that 20% can still be factored in an equation to achieve better climatological accuracy.

William Gray can no more predict the infinite biases and variables than the computers he's working with, especially given the fact that normal cyclical changes are difficult to factor into the raw mathematical equations from the outset.

But, climatalogically, he can make all the predictions he wants and make the claim that he has at least a 50% chance of being right. Even most amateur weather hobbyists can achieve 50% accuracy.

What was missing last year to throw off the predictions?

In hindcasting, we know that massive sandstorms were blown off the western coast of Africa by strong easterly winds in 2006, essentially blocking the sun and preventing the warming of the sea surface temperatures. Heat, as we all know, is the main engine that feeds and drives the potential for hurricanes. That was absent in 2006. But nobody predicted it. How could they?
I'm pretty disgusted that people here are contemplating playing a game on where hurricanes will hit.


Would you play a game that forcasts how many solders get blown up in Iraq that day with extra points on the location in the city of Baghdad?

If you can't tell the parallels between the two then I feel sorry for you.

You haven't been through a serious storm if you think it's a fun game to play with you and your buddies.
Hurricane Survivor, don't be so disgusted at people for having a little fun with something as interesting and ecumenical as weather forecasting. I was in the weather business for over 41 years. Four years as a weather observer in the U.S. Air Force and over 37 years with the National Weather Service. I never met a forecaster who didn't bust his predictions even with the best equipment and data available. Often, decisions are based on an individual forecaster's preference for a specific computer model. After it busts there's that Doh! moment, but c'est la vie. That's the weather biz and I can't tell you how many conversations I've had over the years with everyday citizens who are totally bubbling over with enthusiasm about the weather. Today, for a few dollars you can get a pretty darn good mini weather setup including max/min inside and outside temperatures, wind velocity and speed and even running totals of every single day 24/7.

Weather forecasters and the mission of the National Weather Service have but a single goal and that is to warn the public of dire weather occurrences that are a threat to life and property. Any analogy of soldiers killed or wounded in battle with weather forecasting is preposterous.