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Hurricane Florence lashes Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:32 PM GMT on September 11, 2006

Hurricane Florence is lashing Bermuda with winds just below hurricane force. The Bermuda airport at 10:55am local time had sustained winds of 66 mph, gusting to 83 mph. The airport is at the extreme eastern end of the island, and the large eye of Florence is passing just to the west. Thus, the western end of the island may be experiencing much higher winds. Bermuda is now feeling the worst Florence has to dish out, and residents can rest assured that a repeat of the pounding delivered by Category 3 Hurricane Fabian in 2003 will not occur. The primary threat from Florence is an expected 6-8 foot storm surge, topped by large battering waves up to 20 feet high. Florence's winds should cause relatively minor damage. Bermuda's infrastructure is well able to withstand winds of Category 1 force, since much of the utility lines are buried underground, and the building codes demand that structures be able to withstand 110 mph Category 2 hurricane winds.

Florence's appearance on satellite imagery has degraded considerably this morning, probably due to an increase in wind shear to 20 knots. The eye is no longer visible, and the upper level outflow is not as impressive. The Hurricane Hunters reported a large gap on the south side of the eyewall on their recent passes, and this can be seen on the Bermuda radar (Figure 1) and the Bermuda radar animation. The Bermuda radar failed at 4:07am EDT this morning.


Figure 1. Last radar image of Florence at 4:07am EDT (10:07 GMT) before the radar failed.

Although Florence is weakening, she will continue to be a prodigious wave maker. Florence's large swath of tropical storm force have been blowing for many days over a huge stretch of ocean. High ocean swells will continue to impact the U.S. East Coast and Canadaian Maritime provinces the next two days. Five to ten foot seas will be common in many nearshore areas on Tuesday. The wave height forecast animation from the global wave model run by the National Weather Service is most impressive, and predicts wave heights up to 30 feet offshore the Newfoundland coast on Tuesday. Florence is expected to gradually weaken as wind shear increases and ocean temperatures decrease, and will pass close or over Newfoundland later this week as a powerful extratropical storm with 60 mph winds.

Bermuda's next worry: Tropical Depression Seven
Florence's acceleration to the north has allowed the area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a chance to develop. Visible satellite imagery shows improved organization, and satellite classification of the storm's intensity already put this system at tropical storm strength. A QuikSCAT pass from 5:26am EDT showed numerous wind vectors in the 40-55 mph range, but confined to the southeast side of the circulation center. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate this system at 2pm EDT today. NHC may wait until then to decide whether or not to upgrade this system to Tropical Storm Gordon. Wind shear has fallen to just 10 knots, the waters are a warm 29C, and some continued development is likely today. Tropical Depression Seven is likely to follow a track similar to Florence, and may be a threat to Bermuda.

Bermuda's worry after that: a new African wave
A strong tropical wave with impressive rotation and plenty of intense thunderstorm activity is emerging from the coast of Africa today. Several of the reliable computer models are forecasting that this will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that heads westward across the Atlantic. Wind shear is a low 10 knots, and water temperatures are warm. If this system does develop, it would likely recurve out to sea and not affect any land areas--expect perhaps Bermuda. However, it is far too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters
Flo at Bermuda 1
Flo at Bermuda 1

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks Dr. M :)
Hey there Roll Tide
LOL
Bermuda may be the 2004 Florida this year, ouch!
Roll Tide FL302..we eeked that one out!
rats did not work
sorry that sould be a photo of Bermuda Weather Service Web Cam but rats has you can see it did not work hmmmmm all well
lol Taz - i thought it was just me!
ah i see ok
Good morning all...apparently the trolls are still asleep after a long night? SH! Don't wake them!

:)

32*
Posted By: The32ndDegree at 7:03 AM PDT on September 11, 2006.

Good morning all...apparently the trolls are still asleep after a long night? SH! Don't wake them!

:)



LOL on that one i give you a + for that post
...sees the calm .and says..this is nice.Bermuda seems to hanging tough..as Flo passes to her West....
Gulfscotsman, was there any doubt they would be??! lol : )
has made 1 Blog entry for today...with 1 off-topic appropriate post.
..Gm Rayfromboston..Semper fi ..bro
Morning all....

Don't worry, they will be back with the Go West for the TD and the new wave....
Morning Patrap, I say td 7 becomes a cat 4 and makes the gulf!!! LOL
.,.the westbound Stadium Wave..LOL
25. rlk
People might want to check out the Bermuda weather service at www.weather.bm for more information. They have a large site devoted to Fabian (check Tropical Archive under Climate).

My wife and I visited Bermuda a few years ago -- less than a year after Fabian -- and I've posted a number of shots from that visit. I suspect that they're very well prepared for this kind of storm. This is not the same kind of island as Wake; much of the island is well above sea level, and the island as a whole will not be inundated. The construction looked to be quite solid everywhere we went. This storm is much less intense than Fabian, and I wouldn't expect severe damage to the island (as Jeff noted, the building codes are strict and the infrastructure well protected).

My recollection is that the south shore of the island, which will take the worst of the storm, is almost entirely built well above sea level. I'd expect some amount of wind damage there. While a lot of Hamilton (the capital) is near sea level, it's actually a well-sheltered port that opens to the northwest.

Bermuda actually has rather stormy weather in the winter -- it's frequently in the warm sector of major winter storms, so in addition to synoptic-scale storms it does receive severe weather (tornadoes and hail in addition to damaging thunderstorm winds).

The erosion of the southeast side of the storm looks a bit like what happens to hurricanes that hit the northeast US -- all the precipitation is on the west side of the storm, although it isn't (yet, at any rate) a classical really fast moving storm. When Gloria hit New England in 1985, we only had about 1/4" of rain in Boston, and it was all in a couple of squalls well before the peak of the storm. I've read (don't remember where) that Boston had a trace from the 1938 hurricane and Blue Hill (site of the 183 MPH 1-minute wind speed) had no rain at all in that storm.
..OH no Ray!..LOL..I believe youll enjoy the Only Pic on me Blog for today...Was 1 yr ago.
.tnax Scotts ..we all one today..fo sure.
eye, the center of TD 7 is now appearing on sat real well, wonder if it is decoupling?
So Dr. Masters seems to think that TD7 may be Gordon soon and it seems to be the general concensus that nothing from Africa is going to get to US for awhile.
What are we supposed to be looking for in the gulf, some said if something popped up there it would affect FL?? I know to the SW of us (S of NO) there have been nasty looking blobs quite frequently lately and we didn't go out this weekend because of them.
Have there been any hurricanes that developed in the gulf recently and what are the prerequisites for development there??
Thanks,
Terry
nervous, first hurricane season.
..Fabian..gave Bermuda a wicked lick...and 4 deaths.But to their credit..the National Guard there did a great job of cleaning the Island up..real quickly.
Patrap, wonderful blog entry, I received the news while in the middle of a land navigation course at Camp Geiger, School of Infantry. That was one angry base!!!!!!!
..........cancelling all travel plans for Bermuda, real estate developers shuffling to compete for shrinking lands there after being hit by three major hurricanes.

REPORTS...Occasional Waterspout Warnings have been placed for the entire GOM. Residents on high alert.

Have a good day, everyone. The weather is looking too good.
..CONUS trough to dig deep into GOM..this week ..bringing cool temps all the way to the Gulf Coast.Maybe a BOC spin -up along the tail end...buts thats an opinion..not a forecast...
Groundman, just keep ur eyes peeled for a blob with no high clouds streaming off of it, but I dont think this is a Gulf season my friend.
This season is history...great fish storm season..got to love it....back to college football...
..Geiger..jeez ..I bet the place was fuming ..at the bit,..went thru same in 83 @ Cherry Point when 22nd MEU went up in smoke in Beruit..thats one archaic scene..a whole Branch ready to deploy...
I'll be back tonite, have a good one guys! DONT FORGET 9/11.
Patrap, GS...

WE WILL NEVER FORGET!

And thank you to all the first responders and other heroes.

I watched the HBO special last night and they were talking about some of the older folks who did not get on elevators so that younger folks could get down....
Does anyone track hurricanes after they become extratropical to see how far they go before they truley fizzle out? I've been keeping on eye on what once was hurricane Ioke which started south of Hawaii and is now a storm in the Gulf of Alaska.
..I think the Atlantic is ..played down ..with the El Nino..and the ULLs..its just that way some years..Seems like when one Ocean..kicks up big..they peter out the next season...big.The shock of last years unreal season..I think kinda overloaded many of the Big seasonal predictions....
SeaSpray still here. On the North Shore so well protected by the ridgeline that runs along the centre of the main Island. Can see a lot of fast moving spray patches offshore. So far minor road damage, small trees and debris. Many areas out of power, but this can be fixed quickly when winds die down later. Wind finally moved to the SSW about an hour ago, so she is starting to go by. Houses facing South are taking some breeze (70 kts.) but nothing like Fabian or Emily (1987). A couple of hours and we'll be looking good.

Appreciate the prayers from all.
Can anybody explain what the swirl over the Yucatan on the WV loop might be? What is its character - upper level only?
Thanks,
Zap
thats great news spray..we with ya thru the event..thanx for the update...
..StormJunkie does a great job here..and I thank you...
..Florence is way opened up from last night and is looking more xtra every hour...its also very west & N loaded with the rain...another plus for Bermuda
What I find most interesting about the current season is the "large scale" interplay between the Atlantic and Pacific basin in terms of something I saw last week (Dr. Masters?) explaining that a very active Pacific season usually means a less active Atlantic season and vice versa...............
Gulf,
At least we know where the center is.
Posted By: RAYFROMBOSTON at 2:28 PM GMT on September 11, 2006.
Groundman, just keep ur eyes peeled for a blob with no high clouds streaming off of it, but I dont think this is a Gulf season my friend.

Thanks, now I will TRULY show my ignorance, how do you tell if they are high clouds? The white clouds coming off of the rain storms on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.htmlLink here???

Terry
Hey everyone,

Just wanted to point out that stronger winds have been observed closer to the storm since the Bermuda NWS is on the far eastern part of the Island.

From the 8 AM EDT NHC advisory:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
GUST TO 96 MPH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. (this was a 2 mb drop from last night and lowest of the storm).

If you happened to read my blog, you will note that I was off by one full category in my intensity forecast (from 3 PM EDT yesterday when Florence had dropped 17 mb at the time and never got a chance to revise it like the NHC did later during the night) of a strong category two for closest approach just WEST of Bermuda, that I stuck to from my first forecast more than 53 hours ago. In short, I am personally thankful I and the NHC as well as the computer models overforecasted the intensity of this storm (category two intensity) roughly 18 hours ahead of time. That being said, track forecasts of just WEST of Bermuda couldn't have been more accurate. Most important of all, I hope each of you as well as those residents in Bermuda currently experiencing hurricane force conditions have a very safe and great rest of the day.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
..going out on a limb..maybe..the ULL over the eastern Yucatan..could be the pot-stirrer..in the BOCampeche..if it does a wind down..kinda..maybe..iffy..LOL
Patrap,
I was wondering the same about the BOC. Shear looks low, temps are high, and there is some instability (thanks to SJ for the links to all!). Seems the like the whole area is on "simmer" and just something to kick a storm loose. Just off the Yucatan or just NW of S.A. seem like good places to watch........

I imagine it'll be late in the week before anything could grow out of nothing, though.
Zap
..thats a valid concern Zap..the interacting ULLs sometimes..in this area..do the deed..we'll have to see.
..this may be the feature the FSu kicked up a few days ago..With the CONUS trof sinking into the Gulf midweek..it could be interesting..
Hey Gulf,

I couldn't agree more with those very wise words.:) I better get back to work (taking too many breaks to blog this morning), but I want to wish you and everyone else a great rest of the day.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
..the local forcaster here is calling for upper 60s on the S.Shore of Lake Ponchatrain come Thursday morning..and some 50s..fer lows..on the N Shore...early for this..as the late Sept. and early October pattern..stays firm...
Morn'n Gulf. What have you got against JB?
just curious.
..JB..Accuweather...
So, TD7 is further west than originally thought? Is that what is being said??
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE RIGHT AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE THIN AT THE MOMENT AND A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THE HIGHEST
UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WERE 25-30 KT. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS TO
GET A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
Oh no, TD 7 is going to slam florida just like florence did!
Wow. GS is in a real mood today.
West? Did I hear west?
TD7 heading west? Oh man I got to board up the windows test the genny check the MRE's
OMG WE GOT A HURRICANE COMING?
ITS HEADING WEST?
LOL JK!
Well, my question was did the NHC think it was further north or east earlier, causing them to make the comment of west??

Can't say the damn west word anymore without people making a mockery out of it.
Guys just checking from work real quick from work...There is alot of questions pending to be answered with TD7 so its a wait and see situation right now in my opinion.recon will tells us more.back be in couple of hours. adrian
West? Which way is West?
Can't be much further W -- it didn't move that far yet!

Seems to me that we're watching to see if td7 does anything untoward, otherwise we'll be in a wait-and-see mode for activity elsewhere.

Presuming a late-season pattern, that means Carribean and Gulf developments, right? Everything off Africa will recurve early, unless they are exceptionally far S, correct?
Zap
Gotta go.
From Florence's 11:00 advisory
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 111 MPH...179 KM/HR.
anything that formed now in the gulf would be more likely to go east than north...more like a wilma path. assuming anything even forms in the gulf, which may well not happen this year.
Patrap....We gotta watch the BOC and the GOM close now. Don't want a sneaky baroclinic (neutercane) development there!
Shaking coconuts? Is IH27W back on?
Zap
Ouch! I guess I deserved that!

It's a Monday. What can I say?
Zap
right now in my opinion.recon will tells us more.


Sorry...I just can't help myself....this is just too funny!!!!
Guys just checking from work real quick from work...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rather redundant, wouldn't you say?
It's not like the Sun went anywhere it still heats up things -
Could be worse. I've got the Bazooka Bubblegum song my kids chant at me running through my head.

Zap
Brought to you by the Redunancy Department of Redundancy!
Zap
We did have a record number of smog days in Toronto last year - 48 I think.... It did seem like the air stayed very stagnant alot last year I image that was over much of the USA too most likely the biggest factor in the storm numbers
Zap....Trade ya!! I have the "Hustle" in my head. Hold music on the telephone. Jeez...FLASHBACK!! AAAAHHHHHHH!!!!
I admire Joe Bastardi because he's not afraid to go out on a limb. Too many mets just parrot the NHC or just follow models. TWC in particular. If they think for themselves, they tend to keep it to themselves. For fear of being wrong? I guess. Anyway JB's wrong alot. However he freely admits it and moves on to the next challenge. He's kind of entertaining at times as well.

Everybody say a prayer today for the victims of 911.

FYI..The last few satellite loops on TD7 indicate that it is really trying to get it's act together in terms of a closed circulation...
27 - Hear your coconuts are blowing all over Bermuda!? How are you this morning. Now I have that stupid song that never ends playing in my head - thanks Rand!

Everyone is in a somber mood aren't they. I think September 11 just sets you back on your heels reflecting all the horror of that event. Yes, we have had disasters since then and people have been left just as helpless, but that one day was a vision of pure evil - I still have trouble imagining that that level of hate actually exists - but it does.
I taped and just finished watching Anatomy of a Hurricane, brought back a lot of memories from 2004.
Looks like NHC is a pretty safe place to stay for a hurricane. They should put a live web cam in there so we can watch them argue,lol.
I still have trouble imagining that that level of hate actually exists - but it does.



I'll second that.
Don't want to blow this, but, it that the dreaded pinhole eye on TD7 or is it my imagination.....
So when's the ITCZ gonna give us something? Ernesto was fairly boring but at least headed the direction of the US. Looks like the year of the swing-and-a-miss for meteorologist prognosticators (DR Gray and company). LOL, weren't they calling for 6 MAJORS this year in the Atlantic back in May??? Woops, missed the ball on that one! Cost me some money. Oh well:) At least it didn't cost anybody their house! Wonder if we''l even get the 2 Majors they just forecasted a week ago! Starting to even question that now. Can they have a revised forecast after the season's done to make sure they get it right?

"We now feel fairly confident that there were ... storms in the Atlantic and ... Hurricanes, with ... Major hurricanes. These numbers are estimates."
Take a look at the NOAA Vis Hurricane Loop for Atlantic sector............
there is an eye-like feature you can see on the vis...not sure if it is a true eye and it definitely ain't a pinhole eye.
Just when I thought this blog had successfully stirred the sediment collecting in every dreg of the human psyche you people find something new. Not that I want it said that I don't contribute my share....

No longer just invaluable weather news! Not just ribald commentary! More than fractured poetry and classic rock songs -- now WU brings you ALL the irritating songs you used to sing as a child and then hate as a parent, conveniently brought together in a single compilation, with an auto-replay feature for your endless listening enjoyment. Plus, if you act now, we'll throw in all of the PBS edu-tainment jingles you love to hate, including the classic "Conjunction Junction - what's your function?"! And if, you as tell them you saw it on the WU blog, we'll add a copy of every Ronco commercial ever run on late-night TV absolutely free! Call now, and have your credit card ready -- quantities are limited!
Zap
Dr Lyons on TWC, just said it has a strong visible circulation on satellite and that would be where the "eye" develops if it develops further.
thats the exposed center of circulation. shear from the northwest is pushing all the convection off the COC thats the "pinhole eye" you are looking at
littlefish:

Dr. Gray is a big fish in a little pond but thinks he is a big fish in the ocean. He has completely forgotten or failed to identify crucial variables that are causing his prognostications to be full of errors. He must come clean about problems with his "astrological" type mindset.
Thanks 27...

"It's not particularly silly, is it? I mean, the right leg isn't silly at all and the left leg merely does a forward aerial half turn every alternate step."

Now that'll be in my head all day...

32*
Well, Puerto Rico saying goodbye to "Gordon" unfortunately looks like Bermuda is the target again.
LOL 27... yeah, although the blog tends to turn to the "nudge nudge wink wink" sometimes.

I love it! :)

32*
I have a strong feeling that NYC is going to get hit by a Cat 2+ this year... It seems as the storms have an attraction to the east coast this year.

NYC isn't prepared for a Cat 2+ but, they need to be.
If Dr. Gray could at least use a little logic to at least analyze his arguments, maybe he would be able to see that his logical premises are being checked by sense experience. This is supposed to be science not philosophy or logic class and there are too many erroneous conclusions based on lack of analysis of which factors caused the predictions to be so far off.
hadishon- I don't know about your feeling but I don't think anyone is prepared until they have been through something. Ivan was just a 1 by the time he made it to my house - I wasn't prepared even though I thought I was - I had no concept of what he had to offer - until he got there. If something else stronger comes, my preparation will be to get the livestock on the trailer and get out. I can't make the buildings that are there stronger, or the trees, or the barns, but I can get out of harm's way.
So are we calling them the Go West crowd because the band of that name's biggest hit was "King of Wishful Thinking", or is that just a big ol' coincidence?
146. eye
OMG

look at TD 7, i think i see an eye!
LOL, the beloved Dr Gray. I meant no harm in 'bashing' him:) Besides, it was less of a bash and more of a gentle ribbing if you'd seen the way my fingers typed the message. Clearly not a full-fledged 'bash'! Poor guy has to try and deal with this Global Warming theroetical implication stuff too. Just goes to show how complex weather is and how hard it is to predict 3 months out, let alone 3 days... Especially hurricane season. I'm a bit surprised though that they didn't see the El Nino possibility coming earlier in the year. That doesn't typically just pop up I would think. Those deep upwellings off SA west coast should be fairly stable to follow and predict ahead of time. But what do I know!? My only weather/oceanography experience is drinkin' the Macallan when it is too cold and drinkin' the Macallan when seasick! Err, maybe that's what made me seasick.
148. IKE
Real cute 27windows.

Tropics are really exciting to you today I see!
LOL, 27!

That wasn't our prize-winning GS by chance, was it?
Zap
152. IKE
That's OK...just teasin with ya.

Bermuda...SSW winds @66, gust to 90.

Pressure 29.14.
Eye..Its just your imagination......
155. eye
one more 6 and that is the devil!
156. eye
of course, for some people here it isnt a fish until it is in the N Atlantic, and if it hits any land there it isnt a fish, so no storm is every a fish(by some peoples definition)
Say, speaking of "Go West", I was just listenting to the Pet Shop Boys version of that song. Now I have on Deep Forest's first Album (by far their best). "Night Bird" is playing. Man I love that CD/Album. Reminds me of some great flyfishing expeditions back in the early '90s (always had it palying in the car on the trek to Idaho/Montana/Wyoming)...
Littlefish:

They could tell El Nino was coming but didn't issue anything until after it looked like a sure thing. At least they need to try and do that with hurricanes now. There is a good book called Laboratory Earth entailing the many variables involved in forecasting events. Now, what we need is a little more flexibility by Dr. Gray in his rainfall analysis of Africa.
160. eye
Too bad the wave coming off Africa will develop fast, you know what they say about the fast developers...
163. eye
did they officially make landfall?
I'm not bashin' Dr. Gray. Just trying to remember that meteorology seems esoteric with all the changing and unchanging variables involved.
167. eye
you know what, no storm is a fish, they developed over Africa! That is land too!
Thanx cirro, I'll have to look into that when I get a chance...
Came in for lunch and read 2's tribute to gulf and lmao-you're funny27
JER
I'll be back in a little while. Got chores to do.....
173. eye
my definition is a fishstorm is one that does not make landfall, that means a portion of the eye must go over the land mass. 51% of the USA would agree, and 51% would call fishstorms one that doesnt affect the USA mainland. But, you have your opinion, i have mine, and they will not change...so on to the fishes we have out there now...
Say, I heard the guy that played HR Puff 'N Stuff (the main costumed monster character) was the lead singer for Ministry. Always wondered if that's true. Talk about some intense music!
178. eye
it looks like a good year for the USA and really all land masses in the tropics, what affected them was a breeze compared to years past. Bermuda's building codes are good for a reason. So far so good. Debby was barily a breeze for the Verdes. Ernesto caused some flooding in NC but could of been much worse...so far 2006 is going down as a year to quickly forget which is a good thing and 2007 will be an El Nino year. Looks pretty rosey for the USA. Yeah, all it takes is one storm(Andrew).

Seriously, looking at the tropics and the upper levels, the troughness will continue off the east coast, protecting the USA, the only way i can see a system affected the USA for the remaining of the season is going a path similiar to Wilma.
If the current forecast track on TD7 (soon to be storm) holds true, then Bermuda will be spared (by a pass to the East); this will hopefully be the case...............
..I believe Bermuda to stay west of the track as well.They swinging east..the trend seems
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
..the models that is
I wonder why the GFS has the storm moving west..... Anyone?????????
Looks like the Houston area is gonna get a good soaking this afternoon.
I think that NHC has done a great job on the short-term tracks this year and have not seen anything this season to doubt them......
For those of us outside of the US (and there are more than a few) a fish storm is by definition a storm which stirs up the fishies and does not make landfall anywhere.. these are the storms we like, the bigger the better!
I believe you meant "don't think" but hey...This is my first year on the blob and I have learned a whole lot from many of the regulars; all opinions should be backed up by some facts and respectfully discussed...I'm off for lunch as well and will check in later
Mmm, Florence looks mediocre on IR, but healthy (from a scientific standpoint, of course) on visible. I love how infrared completely obscures any hint of circulation on 07L, until you VIS it and can see that all convection is to the south.
I learn from everyone - the older I get the less I know!
if I make into triple digits I hope I will remember my name LOL!
..is having a stuffed crab to celebrate the fishes..
The Eye of Flo is pretty ragged

ragged eye
Update from Bermuda: We just got our electricity back, but I have no idea for how long. Winds have shifted south-westerly about an hour ago, and it's been pretty squally since then.

There's some visible damage to some roofs in the area, but nothing like Fabian in 2003
,,Good to hear from ya again dtroberts..the sw punch of winds sounds impressive..You at about 5oclock position..just se of the cdo
Scotsman, continuity is one of the foundations of weather forecasting - namely in trying to predict what will happen next in an intensely variable medium stick to what you said in your last prediction unless you have some compelling facts to cause you to change. Nothing wrong with it, and we use the same principles in my profession (groundwater science).. May I ask what triggered your post?
Yesterday was Sunday, so none of the stores could sell alcohol. (*&#@$(*

..LOL..not in my Parish..
Excellent to hear from you dtrobert, and glad to find out that the hardy Bermudians are not being rattled too badly by this storm. Annoying that one if not two more are lined up to test your mettle..

btw, can anyone tell me what system storm floater 2 IR is focussed on? Is this some relic image?
Winds were actually somewhat stronger than I expected based on the last available info before we lost power around 9 am ADT. It seems like Flo decided to spread out as she weakened, which put us within the 64kt radius.
207. SLU
dtrobert it would be nice of you to give us some damage updates as the situation improves. I'm glad you're safe and sound. You guys are in for about 4 - 6 more hours of high winds before things start to ease up so hang in there.
..floater 2 now trained on TD #7..from GEO Synch..orbit..at no cost..LOL
..your right on the assesment dt..the pressure held steady during your closet ..but the windfield has expanded....
Right now, I can't really afford to think too hard about TD7, cause if I do, I think I'm going to scream....
..dt..latest runs turning #7 east of you..as a trend
ok Patrap, how did you do that? 10 minutes ago Floater 2 had some weird image of a mean-looking system over the Bahamas - maybe I've had too much of the Scotsman's beverages today..
The NHC actually had to expand the windfield based on observations in Bermuda, and a weather balloon which was launched by the Bermuda Weather Service at Flo's peak. It seems that the NHC had underestimated the windfield.
..Floater2 crazy sometimes..they probably behind in the switching..its Monday
I saw that the models were tracking east of us. And, that the GFDL was correct (to date) in predicting a pretty fast rightward turn. Here's hoping it holds...
..Randy has pics from the HH plane of Florence ..this AM..now posted on the Main Gallery
..nice pics of the Eyewall..opened on th Ne..from 10k
38mph winds was found by the gov.plane in TD7/TS Gordon
Seriously, looking at the tropics and the upper levels, the troughness will continue off the east coast, protecting the USA, the only way i can see a system affected the USA for the remaining of the season is going a path similiar to Wilma.


SHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
whats the latest on td 7
OMG!! 53mph was found recently and TD7 is clear a tropical storm.
LMAO Gulf

32*
Wee ownle haf to waite intell the 5:00 updayt comes owt...whenever that happins.
013
URNT12 KNHC 111721
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/17:03:30Z
B. 21 deg 19 min N
056 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 234 deg 014 nm
F. 313 deg 034 kt
G. 234 deg 014 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 305 m
J. 24 C/ 305 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0107A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 34 KT SW QUAD 16:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
229. SLU
Boy .. the NHC is very aggressive with this new wave. It hasn't even emerged off Africa yet but they have a Possible Tropical Cyclone notice in place. TD 07 will definitely become TS Gordon today.

LOL Scotsman and Ldyjrnlist.. Note that TD7 is coming together, and may be TS Gordon by the 5 pm update..
Back from lunch....TD7 is still looking good on satellite, so if it holds for the rest of the afternoon, NHC should upgrade it to TS status at the 5:00 pm advisory..
During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum wind speed of 54 mph, at 1001 feet, was found by the government plane.

hi everyone tropics are heating up . what about the one off africa will that one go fising too >? seech
237. eye
pretty sure the wave will go fishing, but could affect..............Bermuda down the road.


Scott, are you drunk?
238. MTJax
paptrap, snoboy

The image issue was one frame from Tropical Storm Shanshan is in the loops for floater #2. How they got the images that far across the sats is beyond me.
The models take every wave, storm, hurricane and whatever forms to the north.
So now we have a possible TD8 off the African coast, plus Flo, and soon-to-be Gordon. Things are indeed heating up.

Btw - my test on how to tell if a Scotsman is drunk - when they're drunk I can usually understand them better..
During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum sustained wind speed of 43 mph at 997 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 44 mph at 997 feet, were found by the government plane.
They wasted no time getting down to TD 7...Well soon to be TS...


244. IKE
So we'll have TS Gordon Lightfoot...w/"Sundown" soon.
Here's the latest from the eye decoded for the lurkers
Storm CYCLONE: Observed by AF #301
Storm #07 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #07: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 11, 2006 17:03:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 21 19 ' N 056 58 ' W (21.32 N 56.97 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 30 Knots (34.5 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 014 Nautical Miles (16.1 miles) From Center At Bearing 234
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 034 Knots (39.1 MPH) From 313
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 014 Nautical Miles (16.1 Miles) From Center At Bearing 234
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1006 Millibars (29.706 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 22C (71.6F) / 305 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 24C (75.2F) / 305 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 23C (73.4F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 34 KT SW Quadrant at 16:58:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Saw some flight level winds of 52mph around 5000.



LOL snowboy...Unforchanatly, I got put back on pain killers. They work oppisite...So, like yesterday expect worse than usual spelling & some bad math from me..lol
250. IKE
There ya go.... Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald!
251. IKE
Sundown is a good song.
so we have a TS or not
254. IKE
Should be Taz with winds measured that strong.

256. SLU
look out for invest 94L at 18z today .. this new african wave looks very vigorous already.
recon is way up on the NE side...
17:40:30 22.63 -55.7 997 142 32 32 71 71

dtrobert~ glad to hear from ya...seaspray was in here earlier, was wondering about ya. Sorry about the alcohol... Hey if ya want...If ya can take some pics & upload them to WU. Dr Masters would probibly feature them in his blog.
258. V26R
Did the NHC Screw up the 2pm advisory for Flo?
Next advisory at 5pm!
ok we have a TS now buy when i was looking at the navy site 07L.GORDON
262. V26R
2pm advisory showing as yesterdays 2pm
Look at the headers
Sorry...I was thinking TD 7.
yay
Yeah, yeah, named another one. Just name em all...every cloud in the basin. They're passing out names now like halloween candy!
TS Gordon

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 SEP 2006 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 21:09:27 N Lon : 56:56:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1006.7mb/ 34.0kt
is it going wnw like it been going?
yeah right; ridiculous!!!


Who banged on your cage?
hey jp is it going wnw like it been going
any idea on track of td7 could you email me please any info im at work ty much
Has anyone heard any more about the FSU model regarding a couple of storms forming in the GOM?
Doesn't look like dry air will be an issue.


285. Xion
NRL has it up as Gordon, I expect an NHC update soon.
Posted By: KissMyGrits at 2:23 PM AST on September 11, 2006.

stay calm girls! Randrewl leading the pack of disgusting wishcaster sissies of doom.


Hi Bob...how you today!
WOW! if this is right they this update this storm from 35mph to 45mph storm it is now a TS

the navy site this update 40kt or 45mph and a 1006mb
That's the Bamm model, right Gulf?

BAMM BAMM!
I haven't even mentioned the NHC. I never bash the NHC. Just stating the obvious.
ih27W...BAMM, BAMM model...that's funny!
Lay em on me slick.
Here you go Bob..AKA KissMyGrits.....I think Gordon is heading WNW...now there was West in that statement. So now I am a Westcaster!
did you no that are new TS now have winds of 45mph


the navy site has it at 40kt and 1006mb so that tell me the winds went from 35mph to 45mph are TS is geting stong fast
likes the Japanese Monster movie List..Gales extend out 100nm to the east of Tropical Storm Rodan...
....Mothra..now @ Hurricane status...as it eyes Mobile Bay...
..now that would b creepy..
Somebody mentioned yesterday the NHC should sell storm sponsorships...like NASCAR. You know....."Here's the latest update on Tropical Storm "Tide"!
There now is a TS Gordon, but has there ever been a TS Eliot?

"I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each.

I do not think that they will sing to me.

I have seen them riding seaward on the waves
Combing the white hair of the waves blown back
When the wind blows the water white and black.
We have lingered in the chambers of the sea
By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown
Till human voices wake us, and we drown. "

Zap

..theres a timeout in the Tropics with the score Hurricanes..2....KIng Shear...6
The 2:05 is out they didn't call Gorden, They acted like they hadn't got info from recon yet....

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 11/1500 UTC IS NEAR
21.1N 56.7W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 380 NM/700 KM NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY.
SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO
27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
They're still flying the rest of the system right Skye?
jphurricane2006...I had forgotten the politician names. That was a fun time!
Gulf....LMAO!!
TS Clinton would be known for hitting only 3 tourist beaches where Girls Gone Wild was filming, but would soon after be followed in the history books by Hurricane Hillary, the worst catastrophe to ever hit New York.

TS Gore, after landfall, would be retroactively downgraded to only a TD, but would forever claim to be the Cat 5 Hurricane that erased 200 or Corps work and reestablished the Florida wetlands.

Zap
jphurricane2006 you have mail
..with Florence still affecting Bermuda..the NHC is holding off on the posting of TD7 to Gordon..this is not unuaual as the system is favoring a similar path.This would b prudent as to not Naming a system till thepresent one clears the Island.Let the folks recoup overnight ..then see the new Tsorm posting..tommorow.
No e.e. cummings for me recently, though I did read him once upon a time. TS is too depressing to really like much, IMHO, but I couldn't resist the puns.
Zap
Randrewl~ Yeah, they're still flying...in the NW quadrent heading toward a 2nd fix.
: jphurricane2006 more mail for you
yeah TD 7 looks very weak and it also looks like the computer models are right again on moving out to sea.
this will not be a fish storm if it keeps moveing WNW
..all storms are relavant..not to every observer..without the naming of systems..we wouldnt have threshold criteria...
I see I come back on and find more of the wishcasting attackers on here.

..HCW must have some Kinda Grudge ,,with the Soggy Bottom Boys......
The Yucatan swirl is sprouting some convection....hmmmm....
Zap
..."Ill meet u onnnnn..Gods golden shores."...Hot damn Boy..I believe you did sell yur Soul to the Devil!...
for get the models
Agreed Gulf..5pm, though I think the reasons go back to the noncompete policy with the media...
..Zap..u quick learner..follow the nose....and the flows..itll all work out.
..iz out to make school run for son..Later
LOL Zap, ya you can tell when elections are nearing! But I gotta admit I counterbalance your self-professed conservatism with my Mother Earth treehugger attitude (although I consider myself conservative in a few areas politically). But I have to admit, weather is a helluva lot more exciting than politics in my world... And I live in the docile climate of Seattle. Nearest thing we get to a tropical storm is a lightning storm that last 10 minutes in the summer... So when is the ITCZ gonna get some hocus-pocus going? That darned ULL and the new wave coming off Africa will probably keep the ITCZ from doing much for awhile. Man, what a boring year in the Atlantic. Pacific has been interesting though (especially Ioke!!!!!!!!).
JP- Mail
Good Afternoon All
..on this day..we can put Politics aside here..for the Focus is on the Loss...and the Heroics..of a single days morning,..5 yrs ago...
Ah Taz, always looking for the westerly journey of a hurricane. I tell you what, this aint the year for due west tracks... TD7/Gordon will also spend a vast majority of its energy flingin' fish...
recon is flying down the tropical forecast points on the floater..
Models for TS Gordon.



TS Gordon
07LGORDON.40kts-1006mb-214N-571W

Hey 456..you see that cloudsat I left ya yesterday?
Gordon seems to be doing a sit-and-spin....not much motion, but I can't see a lot of evidence to contradict the nhc track yet.

littlefish -- I'm actually more environmentally-minded than many conservatives, and I often find common ground with fiscally-conscious liberals as well.

And for IH27W....
"Do you believe in always,the wind
said to the rain
I am too busy with
my flowers to believe,the rain answered"

Zap
Hurricane Florence:
06LFLORENCE.80kts-972mb-336N-652W


356. SLU
Posted By: littlefish at 6:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2006.

LOL Zap, ya you can tell when elections are nearing! But I gotta admit I counterbalance your self-professed conservatism with my Mother Earth treehugger attitude (although I consider myself conservative in a few areas politically). But I have to admit, weather is a helluva lot more exciting than politics in my world... And I live in the docile climate of Seattle. Nearest thing we get to a tropical storm is a lightning storm that last 10 minutes in the summer... So when is the ITCZ gonna get some hocus-pocus going? That darned ULL and the new wave coming off Africa will probably keep the ITCZ from doing much for awhile. Man, what a boring year in the Atlantic. Pacific has been interesting though (especially Ioke!!!!!!!!).


Yeah ... uh huh ... it's easy for you to say because you don't live in Bermuda or in a hurricane prone region.
Posted By: Skyepony at 3:01 PM AST on September 11, 2006.
Hey 456..you see that cloudsat I left ya yesterday?


No
HCW probably won't answer you all because the only reason these people come on here is promote their site. Pathetic.
great song Gulf.
Storm CYCLONE: Observed by AF #301
Storm #07 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #07: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 11, 2006 18:59:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 21 29 ' N 057 11 ' W (21.48 N 57.18 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 Knots (46 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 008 Nautical Miles (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 300
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 037 Knots (42.55 MPH) From 034
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 007 Nautical Miles (8.05 Miles) From Center At Bearing 300
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1005 Millibars (29.676 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 22C (71.6F) / 305 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 24C (75.2F) / 307 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 23C (73.4F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 47 KT NE Quadrant at 17:12:00 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N14W IN SOUTHERN SENEGAL
IN THE PART OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE SCENARIO
WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED...BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY REMAINS STILL...FROM 9N TO
16N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W.
14WSHANSHAN.70kts-972mb-190N-1331E

SLU, you're exactly right. I should not make light of any year of hurricane season. By boring I'm simply meaning from my very narrow perspective of sitting watching satellite imagery. Certainly it aint boring for those having to prepare for the worst but hoping for the best...
Stormtopblows,
How would you know that about stormtop? Are you trying to tell us something?
Pathetic indeed...I gave him a -

I was afaid you'd left once I found it...Now everything is a day older then what's here. Had put it in my blog comments. (homebase of the cloudsat fan club...lol)
Yesterday's cloudsat of 93L~ Go to Cloudsat, click on Granule 01956 9/9/2006 15:53. Then click on green box #18, scroll all the way right.

Just got the edge of Florence today...not even worth looking at.

Here's a good pass of Florence on the 8th...Granule 01942 9/8/2006 16:49 ...green box#18..as a strong tropical storm./ end of cut & paste

Just checked todays other than the not yet afternoon pass we got nothing other than the spin NE of the blob off Africa.
hey all what you think about the new wave that this came off?

lol
374. SLU
Posted By: littlefish at 7:14 PM GMT on September 11, 2006.

SLU, you're exactly right. I should not make light of any year of hurricane season. By boring I'm simply meaning from my very narrow perspective of sitting watching satellite imagery. Certainly it aint boring for those having to prepare for the worst but hoping for the best...


OK then.

Maybe you should switch to the Western Pacific. That's where all the activity is all year round. The Atlantic is the quietest of the three oceans (WPAC, EPAC, ATL) climatologically speaking.
I have posted a new blog. Please come show your support by providing some feedback.

I am still learning, but please come check it out!

Thanks everyone!
wow it is me how dos this thing look like it starting to get stong fast?
Taz - it does look like it is strengthening. Question - is it easier for a hurricane to form while on the heels of another hurricane - what does that do to the atmosphere that allows that to happen - if it does?
jp - it's o.k. - you are trying to lighten up and that's a good thing. We are all friends here - or we should be - so just ignore and don't worry.
yes you may be right about it recurveing but we will this have to wait and see
saddlegait good ?
Hey everyone just got home for lunch whats the latest on td7 and anything else
It's always good not to take yourself so seriously and to lighten up - life is too short to be hostile, angry or too wrapped up in yourself.

Gordon should have a good night of it tonight. Looks to me that he's crept a bit W and maybe a little N, but in any case the case for him heading N still seems strong.


IH27W, that one I hadn't seen -- I like it! Aren't some of his more baudy? Seems like I recall him one of the more modern, sensual crowd.

Zap
poor bermuda

first Florence, and now possibly TD 7 now Gordon
390. SLU
The new tropical wave coming off Africa has a great chance to become the 1st classical Cape Verde-type major hurricane since Hurricane Karl in 2004.

I'm actually not surprised Gordon has strengthened so quickly in the last 24 hours because it is a compact system and these small systems can develop very quickly.


Iam not sure if you guys have seen the lastest NHC graphic but its showing development possible of the african coast.Models indeed have been showing development for a few days now.There might be enough ridgeing in place for this system to move west for a while.be back after lunch.



Still think that TD& will steer west of Bermuda, as presently forecast, and as to the new wave, we need to start looking as the sheer maps again in the area as the moisture is clearly there...............
Any chance of the ridge building back in and driving Gordon west
SLU, I did spend a lot of time staring at IOKE!!!!!!!! while it was a monster. Shanshan looks to be kicking in too. One problem with the West Pacific storms is the vis sat feeds. You get big dark patches as the Earth rotates out of sight... Admittedly though, I'm most interested in the Atlantic (except maybe with the exception of IOKE, which was the best-looking storm of the year IMO- great eyewalls, great banding, etc...).
At least 23,000 homes and businesses were without power in the British island chain of 65,000 permanent residents, according to Bermuda's electric company.
A wind gust of 78 mph was recorded at Bermuda's airport.
Some people were unfazed by the latest storm to hit the island chain, which enforces strict building codes to withstand rough weather.


Posted By: Utah2Miami at 12:48 PM PDT on September 11, 2006.

Taz the Spaz! Chill out buddy- with all the eyes watching this thing its not likely to strengthen into a Cat 5 and hit the US overnight.

But yes, Gordo is looking a bit more impressive. I still think he needs to put on a few pounds before he can do his signature move.



what are you talking about? i no it will not go to a cat 5 that fast lol
Oh lordy! That's precisely the point.
Wow! LOL 27..."Say no moah!" (a la Monty Python)

32*
403. SLU
Posted By: littlefish at 7:44 PM GMT on September 11, 2006.

SLU, I did spend a lot of time staring at IOKE!!!!!!!! while it was a monster. Shanshan looks to be kicking in too. One problem with the West Pacific storms is the vis sat feeds. You get big dark patches as the Earth rotates out of sight... Admittedly though, I'm most interested in the Atlantic (except maybe with the exception of IOKE, which was the best-looking storm of the year IMO- great eyewalls, great banding, etc...).


Yeah .. we had several storms like IOKE in the Atlantic last year and the year before. So far this year they have found it hard to develop but I suspect we will see at least 1 major storm this year. It has to happen soon though because the high wind shear will put the hurricane season to sleep early.
There might be enough ridgeing in place for this system to move west for a while.be back after lunch.


Thats true up until about 55W.....
Gordon is definentely not a lock to recurve out to sea. Once Florence leaves, a high will build back in possibly leaving Gordon stuck or blocking it.
thanks jp
I hope some of you don't mind the introduction of the poet ee cummings......it is well worth the read.
Why is everyone on this blog a poet suddenly?
ok now when are they evere going to put up 94L this is looking like a TD 8 right now dont you all think??????????
lol
Yeah, I'm thinking forecasters are relying a bit too much on Florence's path to designate Gordon's path. Every year Gordon appears, though, it does something nasty.
JP- I wasn't picking on him at all. I was just telling him not to worry his pretty little head.

No I don't want it to strengthen. I have NEVER made any sort of comment leaning toward wishcasting, so don't get your panties in a bind as well. I was making a joke. Guess there is no one from my generation to appreciate the Goonies reference.
JP- I already know I am not "a cool" so no worries.

+nerdcore+
1009mb African Low
Since there is no quiksat pass, to see if the low has a closed circulation, 850mb streamline winds and visible imagery suggest a well define circulation. Infrared imagery revealed some warming cloudtops, and this is normal for some waves coming off Africa. The low will be steered west along a ridge station near 30W, in the North Atlantic. beyond that is highly uncertain at this time.
hi yall
See if I got this right.
I can't speculate about future storm tracks if it isn't in agreement with the "official" guys office in Miami. I can't even mention the "official" guys by name or question them in any way or I am slamming. I especially can't mention any direction for a storm unless it is North, South or East or else it is wishcasting. Any type of humor is not allowed while a storm might hint at affecting any land mass...Inhabited or otherwise.
It is however approved to discuss song lyrics, prose and poetry...not that there's anything wrong with that.
Silly me....I thought this was a weather discussion Blog.

whoo, we had a nice meating at work today about 9-11 attacks, they played Gulf Scotsmans song while showing some clips
Anyone else concerned Gordon gets trapped by the high in a coupled days
Guys - new bloG!
425. SLU
For all of those who have labelled the new wave as a "fish storm" the GFS model has been shifting more and more to the south and west with this system after each run.
SLU are you talking about Gordon or Helene regarding the GFS model shifting?
new blog