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Hurricane Felicia weakening; Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on August 07, 2009

Hurricane Felicia is steadily weakening as it heads west-northwest over cooler waters. Recent satellite imagery shows that the eye is less distinct, and the tops of thunderstorms surrounding the eye are warming, indicating that the updrafts sustaining the eyewall are weakening. The storm appears rather ragged and lopsided, and probably is not as strong as the advertised Category 3 status.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have now fallen below the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane, and will continue to decline as the storm tracks west-northwest over cooler waters. By Saturday morning, SSTs should fall to 24.5°C. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next three days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. On Sunday, Felicia will be encountering strong westerly winds aloft, which should create 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. This should be enough shear to tear the storm apart, thanks to its weakened condition due to the cool SSTs underneath it. By Monday night, when Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, most of the computer models predict Felicia will have dissipated. One exception is the GFDL model, which predicts Felicia could be a tropical depression with 35 mph winds when it passes just south of the Big Island on Monday night. In general, the models have been trending more south with their recent runs, so it currently appears that the Big Island is most likely to feel the most impact from Felicia's rain and winds. While the current forecast calls for Felicia to have a minor impact on Hawaii, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to be out in full force over the next two days to monitor the storm. The NOAA jet flies into Felicia today, and will drop a series of dropsondes that will gather data to be fed into tonight's 00Z computer model runs. Regular low-level flights by the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to begin Saturday afternoon.

Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Typhoon Morakot has moved ashore over northern Taiwan this morning, and is battering the island as a strong Category 1 storm with 95 mph winds. At 9:30 pm local time today, the Taipei airport recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, and a pressure of 972 mb. Morakot is expected to weaken today as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of the island. Storm chaser James Reynolds is intercepting the storm and will be posting live updates on his typhoonfury.com web site and twitter for those who want to follow the storm. Morakot is also visible on Taiwan radar.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Morakot as it made landfall over northern Taiwan at 21:30 local time on 8/7/09. At the time, Taipei was experiencing sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.

I'll have an update on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks disorganized...


It is, there isn't a close at the surface.
Good Morning,

Here We Go Again
Quoting futuremet:


My take on this is that this system has a 30%< chance of developing. There is no major detrimental factor ahead to inhibit tropical cyclogenesis. Upper level ventilation is really helping it sustain itself.


Thanks, agreed....
Good Morning to you 456........
1005. IKE
From the 8:05 am EDST discussion....

"...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N31W 13N50W 10N63W. A
NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 15N46W TO 8N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N49W TO 11N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N20W TO THE COAST NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 43W-47W."

IKE,

read the last section of my blog. I agree with you about the ECMWF. Been doing extremely well this season. For one, the UK forecasts were based on the seasonal ECMWF, that is one that predicted 6 named storms, so we'll see how that goes. They predicted 15 in 2008.
1007. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
IKE,

read the last section of my blog. I agree with you about the ECMWF. Been doing extremely well this season.


I read it a few minutes ago. Yeah...I was surprised it showed as little as it did.

Nice blog you had yesterday about the islands. Informative.
The only place across the Caribbean that has had above average rainfall is the Colombian Low region (Panama, Costa Rico, and Colombia). Every other place has been drier than normal. Very typical of El Nino years.

Also frontal rainfall is well above average over the NWestern Atlantic. very typical of El Nino years.

Add to the heat in the W USA, the torpical cyclones in the central pacific and above average shear in the Caribbean, El Nino is making its presence felt.
1009. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
The only place across the Caribbean that has had above average rainfall is the Colombian Low region (Panama, Costa Rico, and Colombia). Very typical of El Nino years.

Also frontal rainfall is well above average over the NWestern Atlantic. very typical of El Nino years.

Add to the heat in the W USA, the torpical cyclone in the central pacific and above average shear in the Caribbean, El Nino is making its presences felt.


I was just thinking about El Nino. It has to be influencing the Atlantic. This has gone on too long and conditions have become more favorable(lower shear, decreasing SAL), for it not to be El Nino.

I've had above average rainfall since late June here in the Florida panhandle.
1010. SLU
Quoting Weather456:
The only place across the Caribbean that has had above average rainfall is the Colombian Low region (Panama, Costa Rico, and Colombia). Very typical of El Nino years.

Also frontal rainfall is well above average over the NWestern Atlantic. very typical of El Nino years.

Add to the heat in the W USA, the torpical cyclone in the central pacific and above average shear in the Caribbean, El Nino is making its presences felt.


I hate el nino. The weather tends to be very boring in the Eastern Caribbean. lol
Quoting IKE:


I was just thinking about El Nino. It has to be influencing the Atlantic. This has gone on too long and conditions have become more favorable(lower shear, decreasing SAL), for it not to be El Nino.

I've had above average rainfall since late June here in the Florida panhandle.


That is a sign of El Nino. Aboave average rainfall for parts of the Southern United States, especially for the SW USA. Though california has had average rainfall but no surprise there since El Nino conditions are better developed in winter there. El Nino conditions are better developed in summer across the Tropical Atlantic.

====================================================

SLU,

I do not like El Ninos either becuz of the drier than normal conditions here. But at the same time you can learn alot about this oscillation.
1012. IKE
Is anyone surprised?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
1013. SLU
Quoting Weather456:


That is a sign of El Nino. Aboave average rainfall for parts of the Southern United States, especially for the SW USA. Though california has had average rainfall but no surprise there since El Nino conditions are better developed in winter there. El Nino conditions are better developed in summer across the Tropical Atlantic.

====================================================

SLU,

I do not like El Ninos either becuz of the drier than normal conditions here. But at the same time you can learn alot about this oscillation.


Yes I think I read your blog on El Nino Recently. Good job!!
1014. IKE
I think what's left of this season is.... a flurry of activity or maybe a smaller amount(fewer), starting the last 10 days of August...lasting through early October and then it's probably over.

I think it's possible to see anywhere from 5 to 10 named systems as a total, with the lower number being more likely then the higher number.
Well it may be early and slow on the blog but I have found this is the best time to get good information
1017. IKE
456...I saw your post the other day saying you would check back in a day or 2 because this was like watching paint dry. Good analogy.

For tropical weather lovers, El Nino is El Dead-o for the Atlantic. I'm convinced.

Still...the season will ramp up. One is all it takes.
1018. IKE
Quoting polarcane:
Well it may be early and slow on the blog but I have found this is the best time to get good information


It is because you don't see the...where will it go...when it's still on the African coast...posts. And the...I think that's going to be Ana posts, that I've read on here 1,000 times this season...including me saying it.

Gets so repetitive.
Quick question for anyone wanting to field it. I read on Crown Weather yesterday that there may be some flair up in the gulf later today and into Sunday. My local weather guy here in Houston said we may get rain from this feature. Where is it coming from and what kind of low is it? The gulf seems pretty tranquil now. Thanks a bunch!
Quoting IKE:


It is because you don't see the...where will it go...when it's still on the African coast...posts. And the...I think that's going to be Ana posts, that I've read on here 1,000 times this season...including me saying it.

Gets so repetitive.

The sanity is always better!
1021. IKE
Quoting IKE:
I think what's left of this season is.... a flurry of activity or maybe a smaller amount(fewer), starting the last 10 days of August...lasting through early October and then it's probably over.

I think it's possible to see anywhere from 5 to 10 named systems as a total, with the lower number being more likely then the higher number.


Good morning

That was my take on the season from about 3 weeks ago. Late start and early end around mid October, particularly if El Nino is in full bloom in time for winter.

There is no question in my mind that we are feeling more from El Nino than many may think. The NW Caribbean has been bone dry all year and unbearably hot with heat indices near 115F on many days. Pressure here now is 1017 mb which means another stiflingly hot day on tap with little chance of rain.

My big concern is a repeat of 2004 when we went through a period of about 8 weeks of very active weather that started with Ivan. The heat and TCHP build up will have to vent itself somehow and the first 3 storms that come along could all be strong.

Not a good outlook IMO regardless of how low the numbers may be.
1023. IKE
Quoting polarcane:

The sanity is always better!


Exactly.
Quoting IKE:


It is because you don't see the...where will it go...when it's still on the African coast...posts. And the...I think that's going to be Ana posts, that I've read on here 1,000 times this season...including me saying it.

Gets so repetitive.

That is one reason I do not post much because Trolls argue with you so much.
1025. P451


wow look at this tropical low.
1027. P451
Quoting polarcane:

That is one reason I do not post much because Trolls argue with you so much.


Actually, I find some of the self proclaimed "experts" on this blog more annoying than the trolls.
1029. P451
Well protected. Yellow > 40kt, Orange > 50kt. Shear.

Quoting kmanislander:


Actually, I find some of the self proclaimed "experts" on this blog more annoying than the trolls.

You may have hit the nail right on the head!
1031. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually, I find some of the self proclaimed "experts" on this blog more annoying than the trolls.


They aid in it.
Quoting IKE:
456...I saw your post the other day saying you would check back in a day or 2 because this was like watching paint dry. Good analogy.

For tropical weather lovers, El Nino is El Dead-o for the Atlantic. I'm convinced.

Still...the season will ramp up. One is all it takes.


Yea, just doesnt seem right posting the same thing on nothing at the time. lol

But if you really into tropics, the quiet Atlantic should not hold you back. Felicia and the WPAC should suffice.

But sometimes I'm glad where we are located. What if the USA, was where China is today, and the Caribbean/CAMERICA is where Indonesia and the Phillipines is.
But the Western Atlantic could eventually develop a warm pool like the Western Pacific as it continues to widen. The Atlantic could become the largest ocean 1 day.
Quoting IKE:


They aid in it.


The trolls tend to come and go quickly while the "experts" lurk and wait for a post so they can jump on it to contradict you with some short trite statement like " it will not develop ".

Frankly, I don't spend as much time here anymore because of it. Too many egos in need of nourishment.
here is a new map
Quoting kmanislander:


The trolls tend to come and go quickly while the "experts" lurk and wait for a post so they can jump on it to contradict you with some short trite statement like " it will not develop ".

Frankly, I don't spend as much time here anymore because of it. Too many egos in need of nourishment.

Well I have to agree with you. A few years ago I would come here to get low down on storms but I go to other web sites now more than this one. It seems like you have to pull too many weeds to get the pertinent information you need.
1037. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


The trolls tend to come and go quickly while the "experts" lurk and wait for a post so they can jump on it to contradict you with some short trite statement like " it will not develop ".

Frankly, I don't spend as much time here anymore because of it. Too many egos in need of nourishment.


There really hasn't been a need to spend time on here much, if it's the Atlantic you follow.

I post more in the early morning and have other things to do during the day...work...
1039. IKE
Quoting polarcane:

Well I have to agree with you. A few years ago I would come here to get low down on storms but I go to other web sites now more than this one. It seems like you have to pull too many weeds to get the pertinent information you need.


WU has a great website for tropical info. I think this blog tends to be a turn-off to the website itself, at times.

You have to put a lot of what is said on here, in one-ear and out the other and move on. Like...if I think something may develop and say so, and someone says it won't...best rebuttal is...maybe not and move on.
Quoting IKE:


There really hasn't been a need to spend time on here much, if it's the Atlantic you follow.

I post more in the early morning and have other things to do during the day...work...


I agree. Same here, during the day I am too busy other than for the odd post here or there but when it is active out there the evenings and weekends see a lot of action on the blog.

It would be nice to able to agree or disagree without the sarcasm or abbreviated obscenities that is often visited on those who dare to take an opposing view on something.

I don't see it getting any better unfortunately but there you have it.
Well we sure need rain here in Texas. We have a exceptional drought in central Texas right now. The Edwards aquifer in central Texas is strained so bad right now with water use. I don't see much relief in Texas until the fall if we don't get some tropical flow off the Gulf this summer. We need a slow moving tropical storm to come in and rain on us for the better part of a week. Our local weather guy said the Texas drought is worse than anywhere in the US right now even California.
1042. IKE
Two AOI's I see in the Atlantic. Surface trough heading for the islands, looks interesting, especially near 50 west. And the wave exiting Africa looks like it has a nice spin to it.

I want to see where both wind up at.
I am going to mow the dust here in a bit oh the yard I mean. I have patches that need mowing and others are just cracked, dry and nothing grows!
I don't want another Ike but a nice tropical storm would sure break the drought.
Quoting IKE:
Is anyone surprised?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
I'm not, but I bet a lot of bloggers from last night are/will be...or better yet, they will probably say they don't know what they are doing, etc., as usual.
Quoting IKE:
Two AOI's I see in the Atlantic. Surface trough heading for the islands, looks interesting, especially near 50 west. And the wave exiting Africa looks like it has a nice spin to it.

I want to see where both wind up at.
Nuff said. Short and sweet.
regarding the trolls and 'experts' conversation...

I consider Jeff Masters to be an expert...everyone else on here I view as hobbyists...frequently I read his posts without reading any of the comments...it's a uuseful way to learn without having to engage the lunatic fringe...
1048. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree. Same here, during the day I am too busy other than for the odd post here or there but when it is active out there the evenings and weekends see a lot of action on the blog.

It would be nice to able to agree or disagree without the sarcasm or abbreviated obscenities that is often visited on those who dare to take an opposing view on something.

I don't see it getting any better unfortunately but there you have it.


People getting carried away too often. Not worth it.

I notice quite a few "regulars" with the occasional post. I don't blame them on this blog.

Quoting polarcane:
Well we sure need rain here in Texas. We have a exceptional drought in central Texas right now. The Edwards aquifer in central Texas is strained so bad right now with water use. I don't see much relief in Texas until the fall if we don't get some tropical flow off the Gulf this summer. We need a slow moving tropical storm to come in and rain on us for the better part of a week. Our local weather guy said the Texas drought is worse than anywhere in the US right now even California.


I don't see much relief for southern/SE Texas looking at 1-2 week precipitation maps.
1049. IKE
Quoting polarcane:
I am going to mow the dust here in a bit oh the yard I mean. I have patches that need mowing and others are just cracked, dry and nothing grows!


I'm fixing to crank mine up too.
The surface trough is interesting now for two reasons. The first is that it has slowed to the point of being near stationary which gives it more time to try and organize before reaching the Islands.

The second is that the area between 50 and 63 W, but more so 55 and 63 W, can often produce quick resurgence of very weak or dying systems.

The trough keeps flaring up and dying down and it is currently in a weakening phase. It will be interesting to see if it can come back later.

The far Eastern Atl. feature needs to pull away from the coast and spend about 2 days over open water before we are likely to have any real sense of its potential for development.
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually, I find some of the self proclaimed "experts" on this blog more annoying than the trolls.


You can say that 2, no 3 times more. That's why I'm practicing to only blog when necessary and leave the blog to the self proclaimed "experts" as you pointed out.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Nuff said. Short and sweet.

I think with the pattern developing with less shear, less dust, and the MJO uptick we will see several storms in the next 3-4 weeks and maybe longer.
1053. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
I'm not, but I bet a lot of bloggers from last night are/will be...or better yet, they will probably say they don't know what they are doing, etc., as usual.


Exactly...and that's when I go do something else. Tired of reading that.

LOL...you know this blog!
Quoting Weather456:


You can say that 2, no 3 times more. That's why I'm practicing to only blog when necessary and leave the blog to self proclaimed "experts" as you pointed out.
Well I do think of your input as being expert. You seem to know what you are talking about.
1055. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


You can say that 2, no 3 times more. That's why I'm practicing to only blog when necessary and leave the blog to the self proclaimed "experts" as you pointed out.


I've noticed you post less. That's smart...you've learned.
good morning everyone.. What ever happens to the gfs showing three storms next week LOL Must of been a glitch or something
Quoting polarcane:
Well I do think of your input as being expert. You seem to know what you are talking about.
quality not quantity is what you want anyway!!!
Quoting hunkerdown:
I'm not, but I bet a lot of bloggers from last night are/will be...or better yet, they will probably say they don't know what they are doing, etc., as usual.


No one expected this to be mentioned for at least another two days.
1059. IKE
Quoting Funkadelic:
good morning everyone.. What ever happens to the gfs showing three storms next week LOL Must of been a glitch or something


I had faith in that model until 2008.... hurricane23 told me then that it spins up ghost-storms. I didn't believe him until last year.

It's performance in 2009 with the tropical Atlantic has gotten worse...so far.
Well, I will wish you all a happy Saturday for now considering nothing is going on weatherwise for the moment.

I will check in later to see how the trough is doing
Quoting polarcane:
Well I do think of your input as being expert. You seem to know what you are talking about.


Well thanks. But what me and kman is getting at is that some "experts" here do act like trolls.
Quoting presslord:
regarding the trolls and 'experts' conversation...

I consider Jeff Masters to be an expert...everyone else on here I view as hobbyists...frequently I read his posts without reading any of the comments...it's a uuseful way to learn without having to engage the lunatic fringe...


Please allow me to edit my own comment...there actually are a handful of people here whom I view nas fairly expert...not gonna name threm...you know who you are...
Quoting IKE:


I had faith in that model until 2008.... hurricane23 told me then that it spins up ghost-storms. I didn't believe him until last year.

It's performance in 2009 with the tropical Atlantic has gotten worse...so far.
Yea I have noticed that it develops everything. I don't look too much at the models until we have an invest.
1064. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


Well thanks. But what me and kman is getting at is that some "experts" here do act like trolls.


Let em and move on. Not worth it.

I'm gonna go push a mower.

I'll check back L8R.
Wave coming off Africa has an impressive structure. There seems to be at least a mid level center with it and a band on the southern part of the center trying to wrap around. Looks impressive! Time will tell.
Quoting Weather456:


Well thanks. But what me and kman is getting at is that some "experts" here do act like trolls.
I understand but folks like you and storm have valid information you just have to get past all the misinformation!
Maybe what led me into the GFS this year was it's performace in 2008 and 2007, which was pretty well. But I've notice since May, the model is developing alot of tropical systems. It seemed to take them further than what they really turned out to be (convective feedback)

The ECMWF has done pretty good, while the CMC has improved.
Quoting IKE:


Let em and move on. Not worth it.

I'm gonna go push a mower.

I'll check back L8R.
I need to do the same. Hopefully not too early to anger the neighbors.
Quoting polarcane:
I understand but folks like you and storm have valid information you just have to get past all the misinformation!


Yea true.
Good morning. I see 2 AOI'S now. Surface trough did flare up, now it is dying back down. Also, our African wave remains looking impressive. I really think the trend of 0,0,0 will come to a quick halt once we finally get going.
This morning's cold spot.

Mazama, Oregon - 25°F

For those who like to get the latest surface data, that is a good link.
Also, looks like Hawaii will be enduring a weak tropical storm.
wow..
1076. 19N81W
Guys anyone know an official weather forcaster in Honduras. We cant depart for La Ceiba without official weather and they are on strike.

Thanks
I, too, have been reluctant to post much about any real tropical discussions.
I have a thought: What if I gave up the comments section in my blog to general discussion and rule the comment section with extreme prejudice against the goofy, trollish, argumentative, and sarchastic? (Of course, I would have to shut off my own sarchasm, too)
I would even be willing to share my username/password with a select few for the sake of "moderation"
1078. WxLogic
Morning...
1079. WxLogic
Quoting 19N81W:
Guys anyone know an official weather forcaster in Honduras. We cant depart for La Ceiba without official weather and they are on strike.

Thanks


Ouch... sorry 19N... don't know an official forecaster in Honduras.
Quoting 19N81W:
Guys anyone know an official weather forcaster in Honduras. We cant depart for La Ceiba without official weather and they are on strike.

Thanks


Thunder. High 85F, humidity 70%. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. chance of rain 80%

Link
456,do you have a loop of the emerging wave?
1082. Dakster
456 - Please don't go to the wayside like MoonlightCowboy did...

1083. Seastep
Morning all. Just an obs around the CATL wave.

Wind has really died down and now out of the SW here

Looks like the large anti-cyclone over the Cape Vereds is still there.

Quoting Dakster:
456 - Please don't go to the wayside like MoonlightCowboy did...



Amen...
Good morning. A quick question an Felicia. Looking at her westerly track, it appears that she will stay in a constant water temperture (under 26C)as she approaches the Hawaiian Islands. However the water temperture appears to start rising again west of the Islands. Is it possible that Felicia could redevelope?
1087. 19N81W
Ben

Sorry I was looking for an official aviation TAF.

I wonder where msn is getting their weather it looks up to date....I see that FORECA is providing it but where are they getting it? We are stuck until we get a TAF so any help appreciated!!
1088. Dakster
Anything is possible, more probably if there is a favorable SHEAR environment, as that is what some here believe is causing the weakening, even more than the lower SST's.

Quoting 19N81W:
Ben

Sorry I was looking for an official aviation TAF.

I wonder where msn is getting their weather it looks up to date....I see that FORECA is providing it but where are they getting it? We are stuck until we get a TAF so any help appreciated!!
The most recent I can find is Aug 6
1090. Seastep
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Good morning. A quick question an Felicia. Looking at her westerly track, it appears that she will stay in a constant water temperture (under 26C)as she approaches the Hawaiian Islands. However the water temperture appears to start rising again west of the Islands. Is it possible that Felicia could redevelope?


Good morning. I was thinking along the same lines yesterday in that ssts should be going up starting later today.

Shear is very high right now (40-50) around the islands and W and not expected to let up, so appears she's gonna get ripped apart.
1091. Dakster
19N81W - How's the weather in the Cayman Islands?
I only post on this once inawhile and for the past many weeks I havent cause there is nothing to sit in this lobby to talk about (tropical wise in the atlantic)....sorry but most on here really need to pick up a game to play online or get a significant other todo things with. The atlantic season is slow and boring due to African Dust/Dry air in the midlevels...though slowly moistening up... still another week away for any significant chance of development...until then..each wave around the bahamas-carribean will have only a 20% chance or less of developing within the next 5 days or so.

BTW there are no experts that use this forum unless they are Meteorologists... I may be 1 but Im not expert @ the tropics also!
Quoting Dakster:
456 - Please don't go to the wayside like MoonlightCowboy did...



Good morning, folks - still fairly quiet in the tropics I see. Wayside, Daks? I just don't post much in here, especially when there's not much happening in the Atlantic basin. Plus, work has occupied a good deal of my attention lately.

How is everyone? Try and take a puter break, all, and enjoy the weekend. ;)
Good Evening/Morning all
Quoting AllStar17:
Good morning. I see 2 AOI'S now. Surface trough did flare up, now it is dying back down. Also, our African wave remains looking impressive. I really think the trend of 0,0,0 will come to a quick halt once we finally get going.
*sighs and shakes his head*

No signs of that, sorry.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No one expected this to be mentioned for at least another two days.
"lets roll the tape..."
wow look at that tropical low..i will be watching this tropical low..
J.B at Accuweather this morning.


TPC claims their atlantic discussion is 8:05 am edt. How is it 8:05 when its in by 6:45. The forecaster or whoever is on duty should know its crucial to look at vis pics to get a look at tropical systems. Who ever it is keeps locating a wave 5 degrees west OF WHERE THE PRIME CONVECTIVE BULGING AND THE ANALYZED 850 VORT MAX IS. Amazing, look for yourself, you can see the turning back near 50, not 56.

They have taken Felecia further north and I suspect the trend will continue they now have going to the north side of the Big island but maintaining it as a storm till then. This I have to see, as I cant recall at tropical cyclone in August hitting the islands from the east with storm intensity.


Two systems that seem that actual observation of the present and past would can help out with the forecast. The interesting thing about the wave in the atlantic.. not even the models show anything at 56 west The analyzed system is where one can see the northward bulge in convection
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
wow look at that tropical low..i will be watching this tropical low..
please do that for us...oh, and PLEASE resize your images !!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting hunkerdown:
"lets roll the tape..."


Look back through all my posts...I never said this was going to develop. Just said it has a nice upper level environment and it will be interesting if it can take advantage of it or dissipate like every other wave.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Look back through all my posts...I never said this was going to develop. Just said it has a nice upper level environment and it will be interesting if it can take advantage of it or dissipate like every other wave.
I never directed anything at you, personally. But I was getting blasted by a few people, and I am sure you know who, for posting, well how do I say it, the truth. Despite the ITCZ moisture, and as I said last night, the ATL is still pretty stable and I really don't see the "new" wave doing much. Has already seemed to loose some of its umph while rolling off the coast.
Quoting hunkerdown:
I never directed anything at you, personally. But I was getting blasted by a few people, and I am sure you know who, for posting, well how do I say it, the truth. Despite the ITCZ moisture, and as I said last night, the ATL is still pretty stable and I really don't see the "new" wave doing much. Has already seemed to loose some of its umph while rolling off the coast.


Not really... cyclonic turning seems to be more pronounced than earlier. I'd give this 48 hours until we can really judge it.

But whatever...im off to go do some work
Sweet wave of the african coast,could develope given the conditions ahead this time around.Upper conditions look decent and yes if i dare say SAL might not be an issue.

Adrian
i made ths map of the tropical low.
Quoting hurricane23:
Sweet wave of the african coast,could develope given the conditions ahead this time around.Upper conditions look decent and yes if i dare say SAL might not be an issue.

Adrian


This wave probably has the best conditions in front of it that any has had all year..
good morning all...so what are the models saying this morning?
looking at the 50 trough it is still possible seems like alittle more showers associated with it more interesting than yesterday that it still may develop downstream. everyone says just upstream ul winds are sure to destroy it. when it happen i'll believe it. not sure about those cv waves though i know there have been aug. i remember that there has not been anything out there at all. if i had five bucks of the whole mess probally put it on the one at 50w
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
456,do you have a loop of the emerging wave?


Sure,

I did not notice it was so vigorous.




does the emerging wave have a surface low associated with it?
I did not notice it was so vigorous.



Me neither! Wow! Very impressive comming off Africa.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
does the emerging wave have a surface low associated with it?



surface obs indicated that it may possibly have one, but the official surface chart will come out soon.
Quoting Weather456:



surface obs indicated that it may possibly have one, but the official surface chart come out soon.


thanks bro! I am at work and can't go opening to many tabs. They will let us go to this site though... just looking at it I thought it did as well
Morning everyone

Someone on here noticed that MLC a few days ago and said that is the one that needed to be watched, I believe it was leftovers, but I am not sure.

nice catch, you get props


I find it funny that some are in denial of the season starting. I feel that by this time next week we will be tracking Ana. All the indications are there for something to form in the next 7 days.

Someone earlier said the environment wasnt ready yet. How much more ready do you want it to be? SSTs are warm enough, shear is low over most of the Atlantic, the MJO is neutral and the dry air and dust is going away quickly.

Makes no sense, just seems to me that some are either in denial, or because of how this season has gone they wont buy it until it happens. To each his own I guess.
Morning SW
Looks nice except north of it you can see what appears to be a wave motion. Normally signifies a stable environment being jostled by thunderstorm activity. It needs to stay in the ITCZ a bit longer if it's to stand a chance in the longterm imo. Vigorous turning to be sure, but i cant make out the timeframe, 456 could you specify the duration of the frames or give a direct link?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Morning everyone

Someone on here noticed that MLC a few days ago and said that is the one that needed to be watched, I believe it was leftovers, but I am not sure.

nice catch, you get props


I find it funny that some are in denial of the season starting. I feel that by this time next week we will be tracking Ana. All the indications are there for something to form in the next 7 days.

Someone earlier said the environment wasnt ready yet. How much more ready do you want it to be? SSTs are warm enough, shear is low over most of the Atlantic, the MJO is neutral and the dry air and dust is going away quickly.

Makes no sense, just seems to me that some are either in denial, or because of how this season has gone they wont buy it until it happens. To each his own I guess.


Atlantic is still pretty stable. Ive been meaning to ask, I've seen comparisons to active AND inactive years as analogs..One major issue overlooked I think is the upperlevel temperatures ... Not only do you need warm SSTs but you need a high contrast in temp with height ... can anyone post a comparison concerning this aspect?
burnt not me i dont know what a mlc is! thanks anyway i am just a hobbiest and dont have any knowledge of physics. it the age of weeather extremes.
Three balls no stirkes.
5 th ining
0-0-0
The perfecta rolls on.
Quoting SouthALWX:
...could you specify the duration of the frames or give a direct link?


A TIP

Whenever someone posts an image

you can "right click" on that image and
select "copy image location"
from the drop down menu

Then paste that url in your browser
(or in a wordpad document)
to find the source of the image

CRS
Here you can see SAL and upper conditions wont be an issue (for the time being).

Were now at the time of the year.
Here you can see SAL and upper conditions wont be an issue (for the time being).

Were now at the time of the year


So El Nino will not be an impact?
Quoting hurricane23:
Here you can see SAL and upper conditions wont be an issue (for the time being).

Were now at the time of the year.


Interesting. We'll see how this does over the next 2 days.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
Impressive TUTT rolling thru NOLA this moring...it really does look like S Tex will get a bit of relief during the next few days. Nice surge of PW Moving N thru thur SE GoMX will help.
Looks Gonzo went out there this morning & flew around the outside edges of Felicia dropping sondes & then headed back to HI. 26 dropsondes total. Yes the models will be more accurate but they could of thrown a few toward the middle for fun....
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


A TIP

Whenever someone posts an image

you can "right click" on that image and
select "copy image location"
from the drop down menu

Then paste that url in your browser
(or in a wordpad document)
to find the source of the image

CRS

I tried that but its not wanting to work. I suppose it's because he uploaded to tinypic I've had issues with that particular service in the past.
good morning weather456....what is your take on this new wave coming off africa.
Quoting SouthALWX:
Looks nice except north of it you can see what appears to be a wave motion. Normally signifies a stable environment being jostled by thunderstorm activity. It needs to stay in the ITCZ a bit longer if it's to stand a chance in the longterm imo. Vigorous turning to be sure, but i cant make out the timeframe, 456 could you specify the duration of the frames or give a direct link?



The duration of the time is a bit fast for the eyes but the latest image is 1345 UTC or 9:45 EDT. The images are restricted here, but some of us could access them using URL modifications.

Ran generator check
Can goods check
Plywood cut and fastners in shed,. Check
Med in cabinbets check
Cash in hiding place in house Check
Importiant papers all in one box check
Tropical activity nada (Yet)
Quoting polarcane:

I think with the pattern developing with less shear, less dust, and the MJO uptick we will see several storms in the next 3-4 weeks and maybe longer.
I agree and I'm just a weather hobbyist and professional fishing guide but my theory goes like this and it's just a theory, but it's my pancacke theory. Basically when you make pancake batter and heat up the pan drop and some butter in you expect the first pancake to be garbage, deformed and you need to sort of prime the pan for the rest of the pancakes and give the first one to the dog and the rest come out beautifully until you run out of pancake batter. The tropics with the El Nino and the persistent east coast trough are the frying pan and our first system is the first pancacke, possibly weak and disorganized allowing the pattern to switch and help development of the next systems until the trough and El Nino take over again (out of pancake batter). Sounds funny but it's this line of thinking that has allowed me to guide fisherman for a living and find fish on a consistent basis. Do I sound crazy? LOL
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
good morning weather456....what is your take on this new wave coming off africa.


Here
thanks weather456...
Quoting Weather456:



The duration of the time is a bit fast for the eyes but the latest image is 1345 UTC or 9:45 EDT. The images are restricted here, but some of us could access them using URL modifications.


Thank you for your help. What was the first image? Im trying to slow the loop to try and get a rough idea of what kind of vorticity we are looking at here versus what they eyes want me to think. A TD can look like a hurricance if you speed the loop up lightning fast lol
Good Morning Wunderblogfolk,
Will this be 'the one' that develops this season?

ShortWaveLoop
We are not responsible for its development; we should be sensitive to those in its path if it does.
Quoting SouthALWX:

Thank you for your help. What was the first image? Im trying to slow the loop to try and get a rough idea of what kind of vorticity we are looking at here versus what they eyes want me to think. A TD can look like a hurricance if you speed the loop up lightning fast lol


This is the last image in the animation



But this is the first visible image

it would suck if we get another andrew
What time is Recon supposed to intercept Felicia
1143. DDR
Mornig all
Heavy rain showers here in Trinidad since this time yesterday,seems likely that some rivers will burst there banks if this doesnt stop.
This one will get its act together quick.
1145. hahaguy
First look at the wave and it looks pretty decent.
I give it a high chance of forming the wave of africa.
As I thought the incredible loop speed did give it more spin to the eyes than it should have, however the wave is still very vigorous and if it keeps up for 24 hours Id expect atleast modest development. As I said before the atlantic is still fairly stable north of the AOI and it needs to ride fairly low in lat for it to have any longterm chances. May give us something to watch for a while =]
Quoting OnTheFlats:
...Basically when you make pancake batter and heat up the pan drop and some butter in you...give the first one to the dog and the rest come out beautifully until you run out of pancake batter. The tropics with the El Nino and the persistent east coast trough are the frying pan and our first system is the first pancake, possibly weak and disorganized, allowing the pattern to switch and help development of the next systems until the trough and El Nino take over again (out of pancake batter). Sounds funny but it's this line of thinking that has allowed me to guide fisherman for a living and find fish on a consistent basis. Do I sound crazy? LOL

I get the pancake part. No, you don't sound crazy at all.
Im thinking somewhere between 50 and 55 lon and 12 and 15 lat we will see something develop there.. Looks like it has some good outflow developing not sure if there is a low associated with it.. But lots of moisture and thunderstorm activity keeps persisting off and on...

Any other thoughts on this group of storms?
Each one gets bigger and bigger.
Mornin storm! Your takes on the African wave?
Im thinking somewhere between 50 and 55 lon and 12 and 15 lat we will see something develop there.. Looks like it has some good outflow developing not sure if there is a low associated with it.. But lots of moisture and thunderstorm activity keeps persisting off and on...

Any other thoughts on this group of storms?
The atlantic is fairly unstable but with dry ar its not serving as lift.
I like this pattern change (however temporary) over the E Conus as it opened my FL E Coast beach up for a good long late afternoon low tide run yesterday without thunderstorms (sorry about your luck, Tampa - your storm's anvil provided perfect shade for me:). Working, lurking, today & busy. Pressure change maybe exacerbating certain ailments - 3 patients already all the same?

Used to think electricity attracted hurricanes - power gets knocked out & they leave, but it looks like preparedness repels them. Let's get complacent - maybe they will return.

There are no "experts" , just more accomplished artists, and some blind squirrels that manage to find a few nuts. (Dr.s excluded)
Quoting mobilegirl81:
This one will get its act together quick.
Agreed, a classic CV storm? Probably wouldn't make it all the way which is good but could be fun to actually look at something in the atlantic. By the way, nice cooler of Seatrout!! How many of those did you catch?
1157. Dakster
So the question that begs the mind is, what is the chance that Ana will become Andrew's evil sister?
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
What time is Recon supposed to intercept Felicia


BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 08/1800Z

Gonzo flew all around the outside of Felicia this morning, none over..
We caught 38. It was a good day.
Quoting hurricane23:
Here you can see SAL and upper conditions wont be an issue (for the time being).

Were now at the time of the year.

Second that.
It looks like the door is inching open out there.
Good vorticity showing up with both waves

Quoting mobilegirl81:
Each one gets bigger and bigger.
I know, see my pancake theory on post 1135. LOL
Quoting mobilegirl81:
We caught 38. It was a good day.
Nice, we catch tons of them here and I mostly fish for Snook, Redfish, Bonefish, Permit and tarpon but those specks make more money for me than any other fish. Ours in South Florida are wormy in the summer though and are better eating in the winter.
1167. Drakoen
All the computer models with the exception of the ECMWF show development off the African coast early next week. The wave has a nice mid level rotation and as Adrian mentioned, SAL and shear should not be a problem.
Quoting Drakoen:
All the computer models with the exception of the ECMWF show development off the African coast early next week. The wave has a nice mid level rotation and as Adrian mentioned, SAL and shear should not be a problem.


Basically means that there is nothing to stop it :). There was always some complication inhibiting tropical cyclogenesis this year.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
What time is Recon supposed to intercept Felicia


They just took off, looks like Tropical Atlantic is not automatically picking it up. You will need to copy from URPN15 on the right side of the page under East / Central Pacific Basin and paste the data into the decoder.
Quoting Chicklit:
Good Morning Wunderblogfolk,
Will this be 'the one' that develops this season?

ShortWaveLoop
We are not responsible for its development; we should be sensitive to those in its path if it does.


Mornin' Ms C -

That should be this blog's mantra:

We are not responsible for a storm's development; we should be sensitive to those in its path if it does.
A little off topic, but this is the new addition to our family. You can give your rating here.

Yeah,but i was told that if you cook'em good they are harmless, but still the idea.
Looks like Felicia's shear crept back up to 8kts. The Ocean Heat content is slowly beginning to weaken her too. Over the next 12 hrs very low shear like lastnight is expected to reappear so may see a another bit of improvement before OHC + returned shear moves in together..
fish .. have .. worms .. too ..0.o WHY did you have to tell me that WHY!
1175. Patrap
Well, b-4 ya go deeming a African wave a CV imminent threat,..or a CV Godzilla,..how bout we get it off the Continent and see if it sustains for 36-48 hours.

Thats usually how we get a feel for its sustainability.

G'morning to the www wu-room.
very cute W456!
456~ Very cute:) Keep it away from the crows..
1178. Dakster
Quoting SouthALWX:
fish .. have .. worms .. too ..0.o WHY did you have to tell me that WHY!


You are what you eat... Apparently for a fish this is true.
off topic but just had to post this my dad with the dolphins cheerleaders
My sister and her family came down from Ohio this weekend and are staying in Ft Walton Beach. By the looks of the GOM radar, they are about to get a "little" wet.
morning pat and well said
1182. sngalla
Cute 456! The name?
1184. Patrap
G'morning SRT.
1185. Dakster
456 - Cute kitten...
Quoting Weather456:
A little off topic, but this is the new addition to our family. You can give your rating here.



Quoting mobilegirl81:
Yeah,but i was told that if you cook'em good they are harmless, but still the idea.


A rather unfortunate entry sequence...
A username and password are being requested by http://server.duffysmvp.com. The site says: "server.duffysmvp.com"
Quoting Skyepony:
456~ Very cute:) Keep it away from the crows..


lol,

===========

Havnt decided a name as yet.
new blog!!!
oh crap give me 20 min and i will have it up
Quoting Acemmett90:
off topic but just had to post this my dad with the dolphins cheerleaders

This post is putting a password query on the blog when you first go to the page. I'm sure the photo is good though!
1192. Patrap
Was fine time last night here with Green Day.

yeah,,Im a 49 yr old rocker.

They kicked butt,and made the house cry as well.. Wake me up,when sept Ends was a big reminder of 06 in the Superdome.



Green Day delivered a tour de force at the New Orleans Arena

by Keith Spera, Music writer, The Times-Picayune
Saturday August 08, 2009, 2:49 AM


All other ambitions and expectations aside, Billie Joe Armstrong, Mike Dirnt and Tre Cool are very, very good at being Green Day.






AHHHHhH the POp UP Login is Poping Up... Help Me1!!!!!
AHHHHhH the POp UP Login is Poping Up... Help Me1!!!!!
AHHHHhH the POp UP Login is Poping Up... Help Me1!!!!!
Quoting IKE:
Good morning....

00Z ECMWF........shows zilch through August 18th...



Good morning all

But the rest of them show anything but that. The odds are severely stacked up against the ECMWF Model this morning, that's for damn sure, :).
Stupid login popup box .....
NEW BLOG!!!!!
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Yeah,but i was told that if you cook'em good they are harmless, but still the idea.
I know, they taste the same but the idea kills me. The old timers don't care so much and I give them all my fish and the Russians I work with but I like the Red's and Snook. I'm out to go practice for the first annual south florida paddle board fishing tournament. Check out ARKPADDLEBOARDS.COM great new hobby and lots of fun.
1200. linkays
Quoting futuremet:
A username and password are being requested by http://server.duffysmvp.com. The site says: "server.duffysmvp.com"


I just had that happen to me too a few minutes ago!
Quoting StormW:
If you go here, click on play, go to 24 frames, this runs loops about every 15 min. To zoom in, hold the shift key, left click and drag your mouse diagonally to the right corner.

EUMETSAT


Class is in session. Once again, thanks for sharing your efforts Storm. :)
A lot of big fish have worms near the tail section. I will never eat swordfish, ever! I pulled a 3ft worm out of a 200lber once. BTW 95% of all swordfish you eat have never had a chance to breed. All big Grouper have worms. Nasty stuff but nevertheless smaller fish are great eating. Sorry for the info.
NEW BLOG
Quoting linkays:


I just had that happen to me too a few minutes ago!


ME TOO
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Good morning all

But the rest of them show anything but that. The odds are severely stacked up against the ECMWF Model this morning, that's for damn sure, :).


Can you back that up please?