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Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on August 05, 2009

As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.

While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.


Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Here we go

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2009 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:33 N Lon : 130:18:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.6 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

130 knts
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

...FELICIA BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1455 MILES...2340 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 140 MPH...
220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FELICIA A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FELICIA IS LIKELY
NEAR PEAK INTENSITY...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 130.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN
Quoting robie1conobie:
not to mention the Interstate 10 bridge over p'cola bay that got lifted off its supports and crumbled.


There was only one way westbound out of town, and that was Hwy 3 from Hwy 95. I-10 was blocked in both directions.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Here we go

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2009 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:33 N Lon : 130:18:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.6 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

130 knts


130 knots?

/me counts on fingers...

That's 149.5 mph!!!!
Quikscat totally missed the atlantic blob this evening. Cloudsat missed everything but the surface trough N of PR.

Also felt this 3 months after Ivan. Pretty scary too since this is rare for us to feel.



A magnitude 6.7 earthquake IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION has occurred at:
18.98N 81.31W Depth 10km Tue Dec 14 23:20:13 2004 UTC
Quoting CycloneOz:


130 knots?

/me counts on fingers...

That's 149.5 mph!!!!
Looks like might soon reach Cat 5 intensity.
Felicia at 5 AM could be nearing Category 5 intensity.
1009. WxLogic
Quoting Skyepony:
Quikscat totally missed the atlantic blob this evening. Cloudsat missed everything but the surface trough N of PR.


Unfortunately... the AOI @ 37W will be approaching an upper level anticyclone soon... hope we get a QS later... hehe of course I won't be awake for that.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like might soon reach Cat 5 intensity.


So this near Cat V storm is supposed to be a >73 but <110 mph hurricane in roughly 48 hours.

This I gotta see to believe!
1011. gator23
well im back from being banned. What did I miss?
CIMSS Internal Code : Basin - eastpac Storm - FELICIA

08E
HURRICANE FELICIA 0:00UTC 06August2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 14:50:12 N
Longitude : 130:11:36 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 942.6 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 949.6 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : -7.0 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.4 m/s
Direction : 120.5 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
U U U U

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
Very solid ring of thunderstorms around a clearly define eye with outflow measured in 3/4 quadrants. Felicia MODIS IR



Felicia with wind gusts to 165 mph! Wow!
Quoting gator23:
well im back from being banned. What did I miss?


Felicia is a 140mph cat 4, and still strengthening, Morakot is massive now, and uhh... usual stuff that happens around here.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2009 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:33 N Lon : 130:18:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.6 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
1017. gator23
Quoting Stoopid1:


Felicia is a 140mph cat 4, and still strengthening, Morakot is massive now, and uhh... usual stuff that happens around here.


Well ok then. lol
1018. Dakster
Good thing she is supposed to be a T.S. before she hits Hawaii...

Goodnight all. Will check back in the AM to see what Felicia and the CATL blob have been up to overnight but I really think the folks in HI need to start preparing for the worst.
Felicia's poleward outflow jet stretches all the way to California or one can say the upper flow over North Pacific is aiding in the poleward outflow

1021. Dakster
I bow to the experts, if Felicia becomes an Annular Hurricane any chance it could be a major 'cane when it hits Hawaii?
I am confused


This thing exploded over 24C water temps and this thing is heading for 28C water temps how high is shear.

I mean how in the world is this thing going to be a minor hurricane in 24-48 hours
the low is still there
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I am confused


This thing exploded over 24C water temps and this thing is heading for 28C water temps how high is shear.

I mean how in the world is this thing going to be a minor hurricane in 24-48 hours


where are you seeing 24C waters?

The ssd floater is screwed up, it showed that with Carlos too
1025. gator23
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Goodnight all. Will check back in the AM to see what Felicia and the CATL blob have been up to overnight but I really think the folks in HI need to start preparing for the worst.


They have five days.
Quoting Dakster:
I bow to the experts, if Felicia becomes an Annular Hurricane any chance it could be a major 'cane when it hits Hawaii?


I don't know about a major cane, but annulars don't weaken that easy as typical hurricanes.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I am confused


This thing exploded over 24C water temps and this thing is heading for 28C water temps how high is shear.

I mean how in the world is this thing going to be a minor hurricane in 24-48 hours


Its over more than 24C waters lol...its going to be over 24C waters in a couple days.
Quoting gator23:


They have five days.


Five days isn't a whole lot of time when you're out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean... It's not like they can hop in the car and drive to another state...
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

Current SSTs - 28-29CC

Please explain to me why Felicia would be a stronger system when it reaches Hawaii if it became an annular hurricane. I really think Felicia may get to 150/155 mph before peaking.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


It's not like they can hop in the car and drive to another state...


And I have the reverse problem. I can't jump into the XtremeMachine and drive to Hawaii!
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Five days isn't a whole lot of time when you're out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean... It's not like they can hop in the car and drive to another state...


I have always wondered that. How would they do evacuations if a major cane did threaten the area? Fly evacuees to CA? It would make the most sense. I am sure the last thing they would want is to be lost in the Pacific!
1034. gator23
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Five days isn't a whole lot of time when you're out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean... It's not like they can hop in the car and drive to another state...

WHy would they? Travel inland. Anyway my point is alot can happen in five days. Five days out katrina was headed for Tampa, 3 days out Fay was headed for Tampa, and 5 days out a CAT 5 Ike was headed for Miami
Quoting AllStar17:
Please explain to me why Felicia would be a stronger system when it reaches Hawaii if it became an annular hurricane. I really think Felicia may get to 150/155 mph before peaking.
she's already peaking beginning at dawn she will start to wane
1036. gator23
Quoting AllStar17:


I have always wondered that. How would they do evacuations if a major cane did threaten the area? Fly evacuees to CA? It would make the most sense. I am sure the last thing they would want is to be lost in the Pacific!

In South Florida we do not evacuate to other states we evacuate inland. They can do the same. Run from the water hide from the wind.
Quoting gator23:

In South Florida we do not evacuate to other states we evacuate inland. They can do the same.


Huh? Where is inland when they are on an island?
Felicia is peaking now as we speak. It isn't going to be a huge threat to Hawaii.
1039. BDAwx
Annular hurricanes, I've heard, aren't affected/effected as much by cooler water temps and higher wind shear.
i hope ya did'nt buy those tickets yet oz
GFS and CMC are predicting the wave off Africa will develop, we should see the start of the Atlantic activity in a couple days as the shear abates. The forecasters call for a normal season, 10-4-2.
1042. gator23
Quoting AllStar17:


Huh? Where is inland when they are on an island?

Anywhere that does not feel the effects of storm surge. Like i dont know the high mountains perhaps or anywhere 20 miles from the water. I think people over evacuate. You dont need to evacuate from wind only storm surge.
The area just nw of Puerto Rico has vorticity at all levels. What is this? i lnow shear is high at the moment but can some development happen?
.
1045. gator23
Quoting BDAwx:
Annular hurricanes, I've heard, aren't affected/effected as much by cooler water temps and higher wind shear.

wikipedia told me the same thing.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Felicia at 5 AM could be nearing Category 5 intensity.


while I wouldnt rule this out, from what I'm seeing with the ADT raw T#'s, I'm thinking she's peaking. I doubt she can maintain her inner structure too much longer before a replacement cycle begins.
Quoting gator23:

Anywhere that does not feel the effects of storm surge. Like i dont know the high mountains perhaps or anywhere 20 miles from the water. I think people over evacuate. You dont need to evacuate from wind only storm surge.


High mountains feel heavier winds, that is the last place you want to go
1048. stormno
well guys like i said a few days ago august will be quiet....the el nino is a very strong one and will cause high shear in the caribbean the rest of the month so dont look for anything to develop...my latest data shows this month is down the tubes for tropical development...3 factors shear dust and the position of the azores high...guys im going to lower my forecast to 5 storms 3 becoming hurricanes and 2 major ones...i just dont see this pattern changing until mid september if then...guys you are in for a long boring season so dont get your hopes up...i tried to tell STORM W that the other day ....oh well we will see what happens but it looks bleak men....keep working hard learn all you can 456 is doing and excellent job on here im proud of him...i probably wont be back on here until late august so guys play nice dont fight with one another and try to get along....if you have any questions email me and ill be glad to answer..i opened up a blog so if you go to it you can ask your question and ill try my best to help you out...you guys have a great night...Stormno
Quoting extreme236:


while I wouldnt rule this out, from what I'm seeing with the ADT raw T#'s, I'm thinking she's peaking. I doubt she can maintain her inner structure too much longer before a replacement cycle begins.


If she is annular, which as was shown is possible, she wouldnt have any ERWCs nor would she weaken as quickly

1050. BDAwx
Quoting gator23:

wikipedia told me the same thing.


LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i hope ya did'nt buy those tickets yet oz


What a deal!!!!

$890 out of Phoenix.

It's so hard for me to lay off...but I am.

{Worth $890 just to be in Hawaii for a few days!}
Quoting gator23:

In South Florida we do not evacuate to other states we evacuate inland. They can do the same.
Quoting gator23:

Anywhere that does not feel the effects of storm surge. Like i dont know the high mountains perhaps or anywhere 20 miles from the water. I think people over evacuate. You dont need to evacuate from wind only storm surge.


Problem is that Hawaii has mountainous terrain that is susceptible to mudslides and flash flooding, much like Cuba or Haiti. Inland flooding damage has been extensive on Hawaii in the past.
1053. gator23
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


High mountains feel heavier winds, that is the last place you want to go

no. you dont want to drown.
1054. WxLogic
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
The area just nw of Puerto Rico has vorticity at all levels. What is this? i lnow shear is high at the moment but can some development happen?


That's just a TUTT which is starting to have some surface reflection. Nothing much... it will be moving W.
An island is much worst. If a hurricane was coming at mines, they do not encourage you to move too far inland. If you do, becuz of the higher elevation, you will encounter much higher winds and heavier rains than at the coast. That is why you gotta take what comes. We dont normally get high surge like those on the mainland becuz of the surrounding bathymetry.
Quoting gator23:

no. you dont want to drown.


lol um I dont think the storm surge is going to be that great
1057. gator23
Quoting stormno:
well guys like i said a few days ago august will be quiet....the el nino is a very strong one and will cause high shear in the caribbean the rest of the month so dont look for anything to develop...my latest data shows this month is down the tubes for tropical development...3 factors shear dust and the position of the azores high...guys im going to lower my forecast to 5 storms 3 becoming hurricanes and 2 major ones...i just dont see this pattern changing until mid september if then...guys you are in for a long boring season so dont get your hopes up...i tried to tell STORM W that the other day ....oh well we will see what happens but it looks bleak men....keep working hard learn all you can 456 is doing and excellent job on here im proud of him...i probably wont be back on here until late august so guys play nice dont fight with one another and try to get along....if you have any questions email me and ill be glad to answer..i opened up a blog so if you go to it you can ask your question and ill try my best to help you out...you guys have a great night...Stormno

2 of your 3 factors are diminishing and the third doesnt effect anythign but track. but hey thanks for your input
If I went to Hilo, I'd stay there for Felicia. There's a good chance she'd hook right into the bay there.
1059. gator23
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


lol um I dont think the storm surge is going to be that great

yes but, the question was where do the evacuate. They evacuate inland. Just like people in South Florida do. 5-10 miles inland away from the coast. "They even have a saying Run from the water hide from the wind" read about it hereLink but hey if you want to sit on an expressway for hours for no reason at all. go ahead. [Texas Fail] If you dont live an area prone to storm surge just stay put.
If there is one positive thing about Morakot, it's that its enormous circulation should prevent rapid intensification.
36% of the way through hurricane season and all's well!
1062. BDAwx
Quoting Weather456:
An island is much worst. If a hurricane was coming at mines, they do not encourage you to move too far inland. If you do, becuz of the higher elevation, you will encounter much higher winds and heavier rains than at the coast. That is why you gotta take what comes. We dont normally get high surge like those on the mainland becuz of the surrounding bathymetry.


Same except Bermuda has no mountains... but the effect of being on a mountain is there to an extent because of total exposure to the wind off of the ocean.
Quoting gator23:

yes but, the question was where do the evacuate. They evacuate inland. Just like people in South Florida do. 5-10 miles inland away from the coast. "They even have a saying Run from the water hide from the wind" read about it hereLink but hey if you want to sit on an expressway for hours for no reason at all. go ahead. [Texas Fail]


Florida doesn't have mountains and doesn't have to worry about mudslides and gravity-induced flashfloods.

I'm not necessarily saying you evacuate everyone off the islands, but the preperation process in Hawaii is much more complicated and has to start days sooner than it does in Florida.
The Worst Possible Case Snerio is a Katrina Size Major Hurricane LandFalling Between Miami and Ft.Laturdale .. And a NWN track .....
1065. gator23
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Florida doesn't have mountains and doesn't have to worry about mudslides and gravity-induced flashfloods.

I'm not necessarily saying you evacuate everyone off the islands, but the preperation process in Hawaii is much more complicated and has to start days sooner than it does in Florida.

yes i know. all i am saying is people evacuate sometime when they shouldnt. If your area does not feels storm surge why leave
Some of the conditions associated with annular hurricanes are:

An intensity 85% or greater from their theoretical maximum potential intensity,
Weak wind shear from the east or southeast,
A cold east wind at a high altitude (the 200 mbar pressure level),
Near-constant sea surface temperatures between 25.4 °C and 28.5 °C, and
Lack of relative eddy flux convergence at the 200 mbar pressure level, relative to the storm
Agreed with some above posters. The greatest threat from Felicia is not damaging winds, but heavy rain. Topographical enhancement of any thunderstorm activity around the center of Felicia could be a significant issue if the center gets close enough. Even depressions can be destructive. 35-45mph sustained winds would just make for a windy day. The rain is the biggest issue. Although frankly I've heard Hawaii could use it. But hopefully not too much all at once.
1068. gator23
Quoting sammywammybamy:
The Worst Possible Case Snerio is a Katrina Size Major Hurricane LandFalling Between Miami and Ft.Laturdale .. And a NWN track .....

That is not worst case scenario Katrina was a cat 3 at landfall... Worst case Sceraio would be a cat 5 monster landing directly at Miami beach/
1069. stormno
well gator to answer your question i can think of a four letter word to evacuate even if you dont get storm surge its called WIND....Stormno
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE. JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION. FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS
NORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN
140W-156W. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY
FORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48
HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. AFTER 72 HR...THE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR
FELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER. IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA
MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING
AFTER 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W 120 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W 120 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W 110 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN
1071. gator23
Quoting stormno:
well gator to answer your question i can think of a four letter word to evacuate even if you dont get storm surge its called WIND....Stormno

you dont evacuate from wind read this article!
Link
1068. I didn't say katrina intensitity ... I said Size
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Some of the conditions associated with annular hurricanes are:

An intensity 85% or greater from their theoretical maximum potential intensity,
Weak wind shear from the east or southeast,
A cold east wind at a high altitude (the 200 mbar pressure level),
Near-constant sea surface temperatures between 25.4 °C and 28.5 °C, and
Lack of relative eddy flux convergence at the 200 mbar pressure level, relative to the storm


So if the theoretical maximum potential intensity of Felicia at landfall at downtown Hilo, HI was set at say TS strength of 60 mph...then 60 * .85 = 51 --> 60+51=111 mph?
Quoting Weather456:
An island is much worst. If a hurricane was coming at mines, they do not encourage you to move too far inland. If you do, becuz of the higher elevation, you will encounter much higher winds and heavier rains than at the coast. That is why you gotta take what comes. We dont normally get high surge like those on the mainland becuz of the surrounding bathymetry.
I wonder how many of the TX Gulf Coast would agree? Do you think those homeowners of Gilchrist,TX on the Bolivar Penisula would want to be asked to remain on the coast?
1075. gator23
Storm experts suggest: Run from water, hide from wind
If you don't live in a surge zone, you probably should stay put
By DAN FELDSTEIN Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle
June 1, 2006, 1:27AM
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Most people who looked at pictures of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina saw water filling the streets and houses.

Earl "Jay" Baker, a geography professor and evacuation expert at Florida State University in Tallahassee, noticed something different.

Yes, the homes flooded because of the failed levees. "But," he said, "the reason people had roofs to climb on in New Orleans is because they didn't blow away."
If Andrew, even at his size, landfalled just 15 miles north than where it did, that would be a worst case scenario.

What are other examples of annular hurricanes?
1077. gator23
Quoting sammywammybamy:
1068. I didn't say katrina intensitity ... I said Size

ok. Ike size, Cat 5, Miami Beach worst case scenario
Quoting PortABeachBum:
I wonder how many of the TX Gulf Coast would agree? Do you think those homeowners of Gilchrist,TX on the Bolivar Penisula would want to be asked to remain on the coast?


He is talking about inland on an island, in the US evacuating inland is much different
1079. amd
Quoting PortABeachBum:
I wonder how many of the TX Gulf Coast would agree? Do you think those homeowners of Gilchrist,TX on the Bolivar Penisula would want to be asked to remain on the coast?


the surge profile on the texas coast, especially the ne texas coast, and the caribbean islands are much different.

A large continental shelf allows for surge waters to build along the NE Texas coast, while in the Caribbean, there is very little shallow water, so water levels from surges is a lot less where weather456 resides than from the bolivar peninsula.

A storm like Ike would bring surges at best in the Caribbean to about 6 feet, and of course on the bolivar peninsula, it was about 15 feet.
Felicia at 120HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W 35 KT?

So, at the very least, we're talkin' North Shore Swellumongous, right?
so guys what is going on with our AOI
1082. stormno
gator if a cat 5 is coming at you i think most sensible people even if they dont get the storm surge will run from the WIND....what are you thinking of man gezzz..i would recant that or word it differently man....just looking out for you...i dont want people to think if a cat 5 is coming and they wont get the storm surge they can stay that is ludicrous man....Stormno
Katrina made landfall @ Buras LA and the sea level pressure was 917 mbs(Cat 5). When Rita(who can forget that bad girl) winds were 185 mph in the GOM. The pressure was much lower than Katrina was. It'll take a long time for this monster cane to spin down as it approaches Hawaii. The string of pearls in peril?? I'd be on edge if I were in Hawaii, despite what the computer models predict*****
Quoting PortABeachBum:
I wonder how many of the TX Gulf Coast would agree? Do you think those homeowners of Gilchrist,TX on the Bolivar Penisula would want to be asked to remain on the coast?


Read posts 1078 & 1079
Quoting FloridaTigers:
If Andrew, even at his size, landfalled just 15 miles north than where it did, that would be a worst case scenario.

What are other examples of annular hurricanes?


Daniel (2006)
Isabel (2003)
Ioke (2006)
Alberto (2000)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


He is talking about inland on an island, in the US evacuating inland is much different
Inland on my island is 3 blocks West. Elevations of any significance are 100 mi. North.
Quoting Gumbogator:
It'll take a long time for this monster cane {Felicia} to spin down as it approaches Hawaii.


Time is relative. 48 to 72 to 120 hours. A long time to some....
Quoting KoritheMan:


Daniel (2006)
Isabel (2003)
Ioke (2006)
Alberto (2000)


I knew Isabel and Ioke were.
Quoting Weather456:


Read post 1079


that person obviously didnt read what you said

Texas is not an island last I checked, if you live on a barrier island in the US you have the option to go inland on the mainland

On an island like Hawaii or Haiti, you dont have that option. They are two completely different situations.
1090. gator23
Quoting stormno:
gator if a cat 5 is coming at you i think most sensible people even if they dont get the storm surge will run from the WIND....what are you thinking of man gezzz..i would recant that or word it differently man....just looking out for you...i dont want people to think if a cat 5 is coming and they wont get the storm surge they can stay that is ludicrous man....Stormno

1. In Miami our homes can withstand VERY high winds
2. I was in a Cat 5 and my house survived
3. I already cited articles from experts to make my point that you should stay put
4.Miami Dade County Alvarez said "We advise everyone to remember, run from the water hide from the wind" this was in regards to Ike a cat 5 at the time. He followed that with "We dont want to see problems like in Texas with people evacuating unnecessarily
1091. amd
actually gator is right in this case. If you live in a well constructed builiding and you are out of a surge or flood zone, you should stay in your place until the storm passes.

Quoting PortABeachBum:
Inland on my island is 3 blocks West. Elevations of any significance are 100 mi. North.


yea but you can go into mainland Texas, its nowhere near the same
Quoting Weather456:


Read posts 1078 & 1079
Storm surge from IKE came within 100 feet of my home and I live 200 miles from IKE's landfall!
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
The area just nw of Puerto Rico has vorticity at all levels. What is this? i lnow shear is high at the moment but can some development happen?


That's a surface trough playing with an upper level low. This is what the NAM had worked up into something weak the other day. It takes an ULL days to develop. An interesting feature, likely not to develop.
Quoting FloridaTigers:


I knew Isabel and Ioke were.


I believe Frances and Floyd were as well. If not the latter, definitely the former.
Quoting amd:
actually gator is right in this case. If you live in a well constructed builiding and you are out of a surge or flood zone, you should stay in your place until the storm passes.



*Unless you are in an area designated as being "mandatory evacuation!" Always remember to follow the directions of authorities when it comes to guidance in hostile situations. A mandatory evacuation zone means that authorities have deemed that area to be at severe risk for extreme loss of property and life.
It's sad though, becuz, I dont know how much buildings would stand up to a once in lifetime cat 5. I would leave the island. The threshold here is cat 3-4.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I believe Frances and Floyd were as well. If not the latter, definitely the former.


Frances was not annular
Quoting KoritheMan:


I believe Frances and Floyd were as well. If not the latter, definitely the former.



IM me
Quoting gator23:

you dont evacuate from wind read this article!
Link
Here is a quote from that article, "Baker had more points to ponder: In 1992's Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, 60,000 homes in Florida were rendered uninhabitable by the wind, and only 20 percent of them had been evacuated. Still, the death total for people inside their homes was only six." Even if only six died, why take the chance. There is also no mention of injury count.

Be safe, be smart...do you trust the builder/subs who built your house ? That was part of the problem of the wind destroyed homes in Andrew.
1101. gator23
Quoting PortABeachBum:
Storm surge from IKE came within 100 feet of my home and I live 200 miles from IKE's landfall!

pretty sure this is a lie
Quoting Weather456:
It's sad though, becuz, I dont know how much buildings would stand up to a once in lifetime cat 5. I would leave the island.


In a Cat V, the only structure I would come close to trusting would be a reinforced concrete parking garage...and even then....
Speaking about wind, I am still trying to convince my dad that not shuttering all windows in a major hurricane because you know the direction of the wind, is not a good idea. He did this in Wilma.
Quoting PortABeachBum:
Storm surge from IKE came within 100 feet of my home and I live 200 miles from IKE's landfall!


I understand what you are saying, but you had the option of moving as far inland as you wished, when you live on an island, your options are limited.
Quoting Weather456:
It's sad though, becuz, I dont know how much buildings would stand up to a once in lifetime cat 5. I would leave the island.








Not many.
Oh yeah, I'm pretty sure Donna (1960) and Fabian (2003) were also annular hurricanes.


I bet the low coming off the African coast in 2 weeks will be the first real threat of the season.
Quoting Weather456:


I understand what you are saying, but you had the option of moving as far inland as you wished, when you live on an island, your options are limited.


Exactly, they dont seem to be understanding that that was your point.
1109. amd
Quoting CycloneOz:


*Unless you are in an area designated as being "mandatory evacuation!" Always remember to follow the directions of authorities when it comes to guidance in hostile situations. A mandatory evacuation zone means that authorities have deemed that area to be at severe risk for extreme loss of property and life.


forgot to mention that, good call
1110. gator23
Quoting hunkerdown:
Here is a quote from that article, "Baker had more points to ponder: In 1992's Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, 60,000 homes in Florida were rendered uninhabitable by the wind, and only 20 percent of them had been evacuated. Still, the death total for people inside their homes was only six." Even if only six died, why take the chance. There is also no mention of injury count.

Be safe, be smart...do you trust the builder/subs who built your house ? That was part of the problem of the wind destroyed homes in Andrew.

Yes I do those home were made of wood. My home is concrete block.

Im done here sit on an expressway for all I care. Me and Max Mayfield will be in our homes.
1111. gator23
Quoting SavannahStorm:








Not many.

Wood homes. the only thing left standing are the concrete blocks.
During Hurricane Dolly, every room on my floor was occupied.

I took the time to knock on every door the morning of the storm to ask people to crack their balcony doors.

Every single person complied.

Result: Ours was the only floor that was habitable after the hurricane passed. All the other floors were heavily damaged.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Frances was not annular


I was unsure, but I thought I heard someone say that it was. It certainly had the characteristics of one, though: a large eye and the sustaining of hurricane force winds for an extended period of time.
Quoting gator23:

pretty sure this is a lie
Why would I lie? 6 to 8 inches of sand were removed from the Texas beaches all the way from the Mexican border to the LA border. They were deposited in offshore bars. Mother nature spent a long time replenishing them. There are photos in the Corpus Christi newspaper to attest to my veracity.
Quoting gator23:

4.Miami Dade County Alvarez said "We advise everyone to remember, run from the water hide from the wind" this was in regards to Ike a cat 5 at the time. He followed that with "We dont want to see problems like in Texas with people evacuating unnecessarily


And the reasoning behind this is because even if evacuations started 3 days in advance people would still be stuck on the highway during hurricane force winds. Takes a long time to evacuate that many people. Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties have over 5 million people combined.
1116. gator23
Quoting CycloneOz:
During Hurricane Dolly, every room on my floor was occupied.

I took the time to knock on every door the morning of the storm to ask people to crack their balcony doors.

Every single person complied.

Result: Ours was the only floor that was habitable after the hurricane passed. All the other floors were heavily damaged.

Why would you crack your balcony door?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was unsure, but I thought I heard someone say that it was. It certainly had the characteristics of one, though: a large eye and the sustaining of hurricane force winds for an extended period of time.


It did that becuase it had great conditions for days and was a large storm, but Annular hurricanes dont have outflow, Frances had very pronounced outflow
Since 1992 Miami Dade building department has made sure that that new buildings, houses are compliant to survive from a hurricane, usually guarrante up to cat 3 status.
s
Quoting gator23:

1. In Miami our homes can withstand VERY high winds
2. I was in a Cat 5 and my house survived
3. I already cited articles from experts to make my point that you should stay put
4.Miami Dade County Alvarez said "We advise everyone to remember, run from the water hide from the wind" this was in regards to Ike a cat 5 at the time. He followed that with "We dont want to see problems like in Texas with people evacuating unnecessarily
As to #1, please define "our"...there are still many homes not built to current code.

As to #2, congrats. If "we" stay and are injured or dead, do we say, "but gator23 told us to stay" ?

#3, experts are ?

#4, a form of population control ? I am glad I dont live in Miami-Dade.


I don't think he is lying, the aerial pics of Ike resembled 2005.
Quoting gator23:

Why would you crack your balcony door?


Pressure equalization / force dissipation.

Practically every piece of glass on every floor but ours was popped and exploded.

No loss of glass on our floor. Not one pane.
Quoting Weather456:
I don't think he is lying, the aerial pics of Ike resembled 2005.


I dont think he is lying either, but he still didnt get your point
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

** WTKO20 RKSL 060000 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME TY 0908 MORAKOT
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060000UTC 23.4N 128.3E
MOVEMENT WNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 070000UTC 24.5N 123.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT

48HR
POSITION 080000UTC 25.4N 121.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
72HR
POSITION 090000UTC 26.5N 118.9E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
I'm pretty sure Floyd wasn't annular, either. It was a massive storm and had heavy outflow. It also went through a number of eyewall replacement cycles.
1125. BDAwx
Quoting gator23:

pretty sure this is a lie


If he means inland ya but along the coast is not doubtable...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh yeah, I'm pretty sure Donna (1960) and Fabian (2003) were also annular hurricanes.



do you here the buzzing on the IM???
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


It did that becuase it had great conditions for days and was a large storm, but Annular hurricanes dont have outflow, Frances had very pronounced outflow


No, annular hurricanes indeed have upper-level outflow, albeit not as pronounced as a typical hurricane.

After all, anticyclonic outflow is one of the key factors that aid in intensification of a tropical cyclone.
Quoting Vortex95:
Since 1992 Miami Dade building department has made sure that that new buildings, houses are compliant to survive from a hurricane, usually guarrante up to cat 3 status.
Not all buildings in the tri-county area are built post 1992...and there are no guarantees.
And since the glass exploded all over the rooms of the other floors, the hurricane was free to enter the room, too.

It was a mess...you should have seen it.

I gave you a glimpse of the damage to our hotel in my Experience Hurricane Dolly video. That particular shot was from the 7th floor. I was on the 8th.

Everyone on my floor came by to thank me that evening after the storm. The rest of the hotel occupants had to exist in the hotel lobby, which was expansive...and good thing! 200 people had to live down there.
1130. gator23
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I dont think he is lying either, but he still didnt get your point

If he meant inland than ya he probably is lying. If he mean along the coast than I believe him.
Quoting Tazmanian:



do you here the buzzing on the IM???


I'm not on IM...
As of 11 PM EDT - Felicia has officially gone annular?

Quoting CycloneOz:
And since the glass exploded all over the rooms of the other floors, the hurricane was free to enter the room, too.

It was a mess...you should have seen it.

I gave you a glimpse of the damage to our hotel in my Experience Hurricane Dolly video. That particular shot was from the 7th floor. I was on the 8th.

Everyone on my floor came by to thank me that evening after the storm. The rest of the hotel occupants had to exist in the hotel lobby, which was expansive...and good thing! 200 people had to live down there.
Hey gator, would do/would the experts say about this ? I know in a single family home or townhouse it would be a good way to lose your roof.
1134. gator23
Quoting hunkerdown:
There are no Guarantees.

so done with you. If you dont agree with me fine. You can read below and click the links of the articles i left so that you can read for yourself. Max Mayfield discussed this on his blog.
Im glad you dont live in Miami-Dade either.
Not all buildings in the tri-county area are built post 1992...and there are no guarantees.

totally agree, plus add the empty foreclosed homes as a hazard...

1136. BDAwx
cracking windows before a hurricane does equalize the pressure but I would think that it dangerous if you only open them on one or two sides of the building, as this could make the pressures inside the house lower than outside and the roof could collapse instead of the windows bowing out/ roof blowing off.
1137. gator23
Quoting hunkerdown:
Hey gator, would do/would the experts say about this ? I know in a single family home or townhouse it would be a good way to lose your roof.

lol well i agree with you here. Opening a window is not a good idea.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #24
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
12:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.4N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 24.5N 123.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 25.3N 121.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 26.5N 119.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not on IM...



buzz buzz buzz whats talk on IM
Quoting gator23:

so done with you. If you dont agree with me fine. You can read below and click the links of the articles i left so that you can read for yourself. Max Mayfield discussed this on his blog.
Im glad you dont live in Miami-Dade either.
Isn't this the fellow who in an earlier post said he's back from being banned?
Quoting gator23:

so done with you. If you dont agree with me fine. You can read below and click the links of the articles i left so that you can read for yourself. Max Mayfield discussed this on his blog.
Im glad you dont live in Miami-Dade either.
And I am done with you...but you should stop spreading crap to people who may feel you would be saving their life when in reality you could very well be putting them in harms way, or even worse, facing death.
Quoting Tazmanian:



buzz buzz buzz whats talk on IM


Honestly Taz, I don't feel like it tonight. Maybe some other time. Sorry.
1143. BDAwx
if there were category five force winds over your home there will be damage no matter what imo...
if you say you've been in these winds and have no damage to you're house think twice, because that could be incorrect and lead to no evacuation in the future =death...

if your house survived cat5 winds with no damage what-so-ever please tell others the secret to your home's survival!!!
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #24
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
12:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.4N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 24.5N 123.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 25.3N 121.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 26.5N 119.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)


I've always wondered why they measure wind as 10 mins sustained
Quoting KoritheMan:


Honestly Taz, I don't feel like it tonight. Maybe some other time. Sorry.



grrrrr
Quoting KoritheMan:


Honestly Taz, I don't feel like it tonight. Maybe some other time. Sorry.



well ok then see you sat then
Saffir-Simpson Scale (1 minute sustained wind):
TD <39 mph
TS 39-73 mph
Cat 1 74-95 mph
Cat 2 96-110 mph
Cat 3 111-130 mph
Cat 4 131-155 mph
Cat 5 156+ mph

Enhanced Fujita Scale (3 second gust)
EF0 65-85 mph
EF1 86-110 mph
EF2 111-135 mph
EF3 136-165 mph
EF4 166-200 mph
EF5 200+ mph


I realize that you cannot compare hurricanes to tornadoes. The duration of the winds in hurricanes is going to be significantly longer than in tornadoes, and a hurricane is much larger than a tornado (though Wilma did have a 2 nmi eye and the largest tornado was 2.5 miles in diameter). One would also need to run one of the two scales through a conversion because of the difference in the time factor for measured winds, and since the hurricane scale requires a longer period for a valid wind measurement, converting the SSHWS to 3 second gusts would result in the SSHWS wind speeds significantly faster. This is demonstrated with the Australian cyclone scale, which requires a sustained 10 minute wind; Aussie hurricanes have a much higher "sustained wind" when they are converted to the American scale.

But the SSHWS and Enhanced Fujita scale can give a rough comparison.

Anyone who would choose not to evacuate when they are expected to get Category 4 or 5 winds... would you also choose to stay in a house in the direct path of an EF4 or EF5 tornado if you had enough lead time to safely leave? (Again, not trying to start a debate about the merits of driving away from tornadoes.) If not, why not?
1148. stormno
hunkerdown i agree with you 100% gator you are going to get a lot of people killed if they listen to you and max....the last time i checked max mayfield wasnt GOD man...get a grip you are saying things totally unethical...i know you have better sense then that...Stormno
Quoting gator23:

lol well i agree with you here. Opening a window is not a good idea.


Hotel window locations at S. Padre Island: North / South with a view window on W hallway.

Dolly's wind direction during height of storm: from WNW.

Cracking all balcony doors equalized the pressure on the entire floor and dissipated the force of the storm against the glass structures. Instead of bowing in until they popped, they were able to give enough to stay intact. Every person on my floor slept in a dry bed that night.

Disagree if you want with what I did, but I made the right move that morning. That, as a fact, cannot be disputed.
1150. BDAwx
I really hope that the public realizes that being in a cat 5 hurricane doesn't mean you've had cat 5 winds, not all wind throughout the hurricane is equal, and assuming so could prove deadly... especially:

"ive been through cat 3 hurricanes and got no damage and i think we'll be fine for this cat 1"

"I couldn't believe how strong the winds were! I've been in some pretty bad hurricanes in the past but i must say this one is the worst, in future i will definitely heed evacuations!"

But some people aren't lucky enough to get to the second quote....
1152. gator23
Quoting hunkerdown:
And I am done with you...but you should stop spreading crap to people who may feel you would be saving their life when in reality you could very well be putting them in harms way, or even worse, facing death.


I am just saying what i was told by people smarter than both you and I is the smart move. If people choose to listen then they can do that just as I can choose to repost my opinion on a blog. But if you insist here Link and here Link and hereLink

A ton of news articles and EOC recommendations all using the term "run from the water hide from the wind" That is my backup where is yours?
1153. stormno
gator my backup is common sense ...enough said...Stormno
MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

Beijing uses 2 minute winds sustained average and India uses 3 minute sustained winds average

else uses the 10 minute sustained winds average in the world
1155. gator23
Quoting stormno:
gator my backup is common sense ...enough said...Stormno

Evacuate if you want. i am not saying not to evacuate. I am saying that you may not need to. I have done everything the blog rules ask which is to provide backup for statements made.


Stay if you want to. I don't know how many different ways I can say it. That AWEFUL evacuation worked! Just be smart about things. This guy thought he was. He wasnt in an evacuation zone either. I sincerely hope that there are enough strong buildings in Florida to shelter everyone.
wrong advisory Keeper

states 1800 UTC..
Quoting gator23:
"run from the water hide from the wind" That is my backup where is yours?
Quoting a politician, an appointed "official" and a lawyer!
I'll put my degrees up against theirs any day!
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
wrong advisory Keeper

states 1800 UTC..
that was a mistake hades been removed
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #22
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T0907)
9:00 AM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (990 hPa) located at 22.0N 111.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as almost stationary

RMSC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.5N 110.7E - Tropical Depression

---
sure is staying at 35kts overland/coastal region for awhile now..
Quoting BDAwx:
I really hope that the public realizes that being in a cat 5 hurricane doesn't mean you've had cat 5 winds, not all wind throughout the hurricane is equal, and assuming so could prove deadly... especially:

"ive been through cat 3 hurricanes and got no damage and i think we'll be fine for this cat 1"

"I couldn't believe how strong the winds were! I've been in some pretty bad hurricanes in the past but i must say this one is the worst, in future i will definitely heed evacuations!"

But some people aren't lucky enough to get to the second quote....


Just like Ike those winds were sustained for so long it felt stronger than a 2 glad we are 70 miles inland and didn't have to feel the full force of it
oh okay. but it sure is taking JTWC to release the 4:00am UTC warning for Felicia.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2009 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 14:53:17 N Lon : 130:30:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +10.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
oh okay. but it sure is taking JTWC to release the 4:00am UTC warning for Felicia.
i know she is a cat four now
Felicia is really starting to look annular...just a ring of convection with a clear eye right dead center. It reminds me a lot of Hurricane Daniel of 2006 which also became annular. It's gotta be in the 140-150mph range right now.
Hello

Felicia is very impresive is near to get CAT5 Hurricane.
Quoting Claudette1234:
Hello

Felicia is very impresive is near to get CAT5 Hurricane.

Will Felicia get to a Cat 5?????
1170. BDAwx
Does anyone agree that there is a chance that as enrique's circulation gets absorbed into Felicia that it will keep Felicia a little farther to the south and just out of the cooler waters, which would, discounting the area of wind shear and dryer air, keep Felicia from weakening so dramatically?
WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 010
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
0300 UTC THU AUG 06 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.1W
JTWC stopped making track maps for the EPAC =P

they're using NWS/NHC track map now
Quoting Claudette1234:

wow winds 140 mph.
1175. BDAwx
If you looked at Felicia two-three days ago you wouldn't recognize her...
Does anyone agree that there is a chance that as enrique's circulation gets absorbed into Felicia that it will keep Felicia a little farther to the south and just out of the cooler waters, which would, discounting the area of wind shear and dryer air, keep Felicia from weakening so dramatically?

I don't think Felicia will absorb Enrique's circulation as it's actually far enough away. It is stealing some of it's moisture though. I think Enrique will end up dying out on its own as the NHC depicts.
I've learned that yahoo weather and weather underground factor in tropical cyclones and hurricanes in their forecast for the day. Not msn or other websites i've been to for weather, but none of them are too accurate for example the weather forcast for taipei which is in the direct path of typhoon Morakot but it says that it will only rain about a third of an inch and a tenth when we know it's so huge that it will dump rain for days. In fact it already started now and won't end for about 4 days. Anyway, do you know any websites that can correctly forecast the tropical weather into the daily forecast, THANK YOU!!!

P.S... The rain amounts changed right when i previewed the comment to check but that still isn't that right amount of rain that will fall. ( It just shows you it's always good to check)


well geez, is that still Lana out there.. O_O

Quoting AussieStorm:

Will Felicia get to a Cat 5?????


Hello Aussie as say unlweatherman has a very deep and clear eye anular, conditions are good but at this point is hard to increase power, i think all depend direction if keeps direction west have a considerable chance to get CAT5.
1181. BDAwx
Could it be just as bad in terms of rainfall for Felicia/remnants of Enrique to move to the south of Hawaii because of orographic lifting forces interacting with the moisture rotating onshore from their circulation, than if it passes right over Hawaii?

sorry for poor wording...
Hello Aussie as say unlweatherman has a very deep and clear eye anular, conditions are good but at this point is hard to increase power, i think all depend direction if keeps direction west have a considerable chance to get CAT5.

Hey Claudette1234. I don't think it'll hit Cat 5...but 150mph Cat 4 might not be out of the ballbark. In fact it might be already there as it looks better organized than it did when the advisory came out a couple hours ago. If it holds its intensity to 1am I expected a further 5-10mph increase in strength. Getting to such a high intensity and its change to an annular structure will certainly help it survive longer as it moves over 24-25C waters and turns west toward Hawaii. How strong it'll be when it gets there is anyone's guess. Intensity forecasting is a crazy science hours out, let alone 5 days out. The only educated guess I can make is that it won't be a hurricane.
OMG Felicia is quite the cane...look at that eye.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "KIKO" has maintained its course and continues to move towards Northern Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Kiko (Morakot) located at 23.5°N 127.9°E or 620 kms northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 130 km/h (70 knots) with gustiness of 160 km/h (85 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1. Batanes

Additional Information
=====================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concern are advised to take approriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Blog update, please look and tell me what you think!


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
Amazing storm goodnight all. May Felicia die before it gets to Hawaii.
OKAY...so I'm back, and what have we got here? Felicia is a strong cat. 4, and is absorbing Enrique's moisture. Headed for Hawaii, kind of reminds me of Flossie. The Atlantic is unsually quiet, but there's a wave off Senegal that looks like it's worth watching over the next two weeks, if it can maintain itself. Typhoon Morakot is now a strong cat. 1, and will become a cat. 2 by the next advisory. Expected to strengthen to a cat. 4 before making landfall on Taipei as a cat. 3, but currently it appears to be tracking more southwest than west-southwest. Models are disagreeing on its track, especially NOGAPS which stalls it just short of hitting Taiwan and sends it toward Korea. There's also a second West Pacific system worth watching, and that's 90W.INVEST. It's currently east of Saipan, but the models seem to develop it, especially the CMC, which points it threateningly (given rapid intensification) toward southern China. Now that's all for today, see y'all (southern roots NOT present) next time!
Fujiwhara Effect Alert!
Fujiwhara Effect Alert!


Enrique now beginning to race around to Felicia's northern flank!

Awesome!

Could be the buffer she needs to survive for 5 days!
1190. snotly
Is the nam showing something forming in the gulf later this week? I do see a ridge building north and east over the conus. Will that put a damper on the wind shear?
Quoting snotly:
Is the nam showing something forming in the gulf later this week? I do see a ridge building north and east over the conus. Will that put a damper on the wind shear?


I was just noticing that. So far as I can tell they're the only ones.
1192. snotly
Felicia had a little pulse there could be going through some EWRC's. I wonder if the winds will die down a little with the next reading.
Quoting snotly:
Felicia had a little pulse there could be going through some EWRC's. I wonder if the winds will die down a little with the next reading.


That eyewall is super-solid.
Felicia had a little pulse there could be going through some EWRC's. I wonder if the winds will die down a little with the next reading.

I don't think Felicia has had any EWRCs. The NHC already indicated that there wasn't any sign of an outer eyewall developing the current eye has been pretty stable...actually it's really cleared out in the past couple hours.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2009 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:39 N Lon : 130:36:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

1198. Fshhead
"

Evening Everyone,
Thats a Roger on the solid eyewall ;)
Some model putts Felicia at 920mb in 6-12hrs, if get this pressure with this structure CAT5 is possible
God, I wish the hurricane hunters were flying through Felicia right now. The action they would find!
1201. Fshhead
Wooof!! I am just REAL happy she is a swimmin' in the Pacific & not the Atlantic..

East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.9N 130.5W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 937 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 06 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. A
WELL DEFINED EYE IS OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
OBSERVED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 19.7N 124.6W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 06 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THURSDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW
FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND IS NORTH
OF 06N ALONG 81W/82W AND IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE. THE CONVECTION DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE
COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REMAIN
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N TO 16N ALONG 112W MOVING W 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
09N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 06.5N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT
08.5N115.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH
32N123W TO 16N140W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WEST OF 125W. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 130W. NO CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN THIS PLUME.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 105W TO
115W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
HOWEVER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W
IS WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA. ALSO CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE
ITCZ SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 107W IN THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW INCLUDING OVER THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE AREA WEST OF
135W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
AREA EAST OF 105W IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT RESULTING TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY THE
DIFFLUENCE.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W
AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL
CYCLONES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH.

GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 90W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT.




000
AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IN ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE AREA OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THE WAVE AND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST
IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 13N32W 7N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W...MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
19N93W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 25N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 75W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 29N89W AT THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIP OF LOUISIANA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 94W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N82W 25N85W 22N86W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA..
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N66W
TO 24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN
62W AND 69W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO RICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N64W 23N66W 19N67W. THIS TROUGH USED
TO BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 16N65W TO THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 17N63W 12N70W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS SPREADING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N74W 16N82W 17N88W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...THE 82W TROPICAL WAVE...AND ABOUT
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N78W
IN THE PROVIDENCE CHANNEL...IN BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND
BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 22N77W 26N78W 31N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N36W TO 19N46W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH.

The deep convection of Felicia is shrinking...it's turning into a small, intense ball of convection with a hole in it lol.
Quoting unlweatherman:
The deep convection of Felicia is shrinking...it's turning into a small, intense ball of convection with a hole in it lol.


What about Atlantic The wave still there most people died it but looking maps still a chance to survive.
yeah, i've been watching that little guy poof and flare up all day.
08EFELICIA.125kts-935mb-151N-1308W

125kts = 144mhp

12mph more and will be a CAT5 hurricane
Felicia and Enrique seem to be doing a dance with each other right now.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #25
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
15:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.3N 126.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm-force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 25.1N 122.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 26.0N 120.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 27.8N 118.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Quoting unlweatherman:
Felicia and Enrique seem to be doing a dance with each other right now.


Hello

Yeah Enrique is racing Felicia.

The eyewall of Felicia is bigger an bigger, spectacular eye


10N 117W would be mark as yellow circle next NHC report
Felicia is incredible! I saw that 145mph tag on the US Navy tropical cyclone site. Amazing.
Quoting unlweatherman:
Felicia is incredible! I saw that 145mph tag on the US Navy tropical cyclone site. Amazing.


Yeah probably 145mph will be the next oficcial report at NHC amazing
Hi all,

I'd like to hear what you guys think about what might happen to Felicia if/when she encounters the Big Island. If she makes landfall there, she encounters two very large mountains, Mauna Kea (13,796 feet elev) and Mauna Loa (roughly same elev).

I remember when Hurricane Iniki(1992) parked herself over the entire island of Kaua'i for hours. It was devastating. How might a relatively small land mass that is surrounded by ocean affect the course of a hurricane or tropical storm?

I'll look for your answers in a while. I'm off to pick up some lanterns, bottled water, and gas up the car before the crowds.

Felicia if gets hawaii have a chance of 65% TD 33% TS 2% CAT1
Hi Uwekalani-

The biggest threat to the Big Island of Hawaii is flooding rains if the system makes landfall or makes a close approach as a depression or minimal tropical storm. If that happens, Monday looks to be the day for it. Remember that big Kona Low that struck the Islands (particularly the Western Islands) for days last Fall and caused major flooding in Kauai and Oahu? Yeah, that'd be the Big Island's worst case scenario with any tropical cyclone hitting it. The waters and atmospheric environment isn't too conductive to producing a extreme wind event from a tropical cyclone. But flooding rains are a possibly depending on how organized it is if and when it arrives.
Thanks for the responses unlweatherman & claudette.

Yes, I suppose Felicia will slow down once she hits land, especially MK and ML. I am curious though what her path and speed might be after that encounter. Where I am next to some 2,000 cliffy mountains, it makes a big difference whether strong winds come at us from the south or not. (South/Kona winds race down those cliffs and wash over us like a phantom tsunami).

And here's an interesting thought... I wonder what effect prolonged flooding rain might have on the eruption at Kilauea? Talk about a battle between the forces of nature!


Rains begins in Taiwan
From the latest WFO Honolulu Forecast Discussion:

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MAJOR
HURRICANE FELICIA...CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...WHICH IS AROUND
1950 MILES EAST OF HILO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF FELICIA...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING...THE
STATE AS A TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IF SO...FELECIA
MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

...FELICIA MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATER TODAY...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1480 MILES...2380 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS
AS FELICIA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 131.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
----------------
They note in the forecast discussion that Felicia may have peaked at 145mph earlier in the evening. I'm personally pretty certain it did.
Meteo France
High Sea Forecast for the eastern Atlantic

Low 1005 in far south of Algeria.
Low 1013 by 12N 32W, moving Westward.
New low 1013 by 12N 17W at
07/00 UTC, expected by 12N 24W at 08/00 UTC.


Tropical wave along 28/29W south of 16N, moving Westward at 10 kt.

ITCZ along 10N 14W 13N 32W 07N 50W.
well darn.. laggy blog is laggy with posting comments =/
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "KIKO" has intensified further as it moves closer to Northern Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Kiko (Morakot) located at 23.3°N 125.9°E or 450 kms northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 140 km/h (75 knots) with gustiness of 170 km/h (90 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes group of Islands
2.Babuyan group of Islands
3.Calayan group of Islands

Additional Information
=====================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concern are advised to take approriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

---
Kiko can still raise signal for not hardly being in the AOR =P
Typhoon Morakot's northern eyewall is eroded, and it appears to be aiming for the southern tip of Taiwan. If it's going to intensify to a cat. 3 or cat. 4 it doesn't have a lot of time.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #26
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
18:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.2N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 9 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-force Winds
==================
110 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 25.1N 122.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 26.0N 120.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 27.8N 118.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
FKPQ30 RJTD 060600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090806/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MORAKOT
NR: 13
PSN: N2320 E12625
MOV: W 15KT
C: 960HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 06/1200Z N2335 E12500
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/1800Z N2405 E12340
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 07/0000Z N2435 E12250
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 07/0600Z N2505 E12200
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
JMA still has the center of Morakot (Kiko) tracking towards the mountainous northern Taiwan region
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Typhoon Morakot's northern eyewall is eroded, and it appears to be aiming for the southern tip of Taiwan. If it's going to intensify to a cat. 3 or cat. 4 it doesn't have a lot of time.


The enormity of the circulation should prevent rapid intensification, despite a rather favorable upper-level outflow pattern.
Taiwan has a typhoon Warning now in effect

07fW40063
WTCI RCTP 060900 =
WARNING VALID 070900Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 200908 (MORAKOT 200908) WARNING =
POSITION 060900Z AT TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ( 23.4N ) ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST ( 126.1E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS WEST BECOMING WNW 20KM/HR BECOMING 16KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 955 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 40 METER PER SECOND GUST 50 METER PER SECOND =

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #24
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T0907)
18:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (990 hPa) located at 22.0N 110.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RMSC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.1N 110.1E - Tropical Depression

--
...and here is the storm that won't go away O_o
Good Morning,

Nothing in the tropics worth mentioning except that upper low north of the islands but if development was to occur it would take days and that does not seem likely at this moment. None of the models forecasting anything through the weekend. Nothing has change much with Felicia as I expect it to reach Haiwii as a tropical depression or tropical storm and that seems to be the official guidance. If nothing significantly changes my next blog will be weekend (no use watching paint dry), where I hope to discuss Hawaii's hurricane history, which is only part 1 of a series of El Nino blogs I have plan, with the others being Australia, the Galapagos, and California.

Normal Season Still Expected; Hurricane Felicia
The swan, Goni needs to fly away and dissipate already
61616 ASTRA WXWXC MORAKOT OB 17
62626 SPL 2623N12318E 0200 MBL WND 01538 AEV 20704 WL150 01034 08
0 =

could never read these dropsond readings =/
Enrique wont to die soon still TS and may be reach CAT1
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
61616 ASTRA WXWXC MORAKOT OB 17
62626 SPL 2623N12318E 0200 MBL WND 01538 AEV 20704 WL150 01034 08
0 =

could never read these dropsond readings =/


At what speed do you think Morakot land in Taiwan?
1239. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU AUG 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N67W TO MEANDER N OF PR FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING OVR THE WEEKEND. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W TO INTERACT WITH TUTT LOW TO
THE WEST AND ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NEXT 12 HRS. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD SW INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY FRI
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOME HAZE/DUST.


FCST GETS A LOT EASIER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
SW IN TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND SAHARAN LAYER AIR MOVES IN
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER/STABLE AIR MASS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


Hello Ike

Do you really think this wave can developed?
1241. IKE
Here's why the CMC model is untrustworthy. Here's what it showed in the Atlantic at 144 hours, on yesterday's 12Z run. Look east of the islands....




Here's what it now shows. Note east of the islands vs. the 12Z frame I posted.....WTH?

Quoting IKE:
Here's why the CMC model is untrustworthy. Here's what it showed in the Atlantic at 144 hours, on yesterday's 12Z run. Look east of the islands....




Here's what it now shows. Note east of the islands vs. the 12Z frame I posted.....WTH?



LOL compare 18z and 0z GFS

they both suck at cyclogenesis. Stick with the ECMWF!
1243. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


LOL compare 18z and 0z GFS

they both suck at cyclogenesis. Stick with the ECMWF!


Amen. They both do suck at cyclogenesis. They have to be suffering from convective feedback.

ECMWF shows limited action in the Atlantic through August 16th!

I have a question...I've been following the MJO charts and seeing it heading into the Atlantic. It's not that strong though. Question...what is more important...MJO or El Nino? It looks like El Nino is champ in the Atlantic in 2009. I wouldn't be shocked if it's after August 20th before the A storm happens.

TSR...13 storms in this? LMAO.


Seems like MOROKOT want to make an eye
1245. IKE
Quoting Claudette1234:
Hello Ike

Do you really think this wave can developed?


It doesn't look promising. Looks like some dry-air is getting to it.
1246. IKE
0-0-0

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
It looks as if Felicia's Southern Eyewall is strengthening look at Dr. Masters image of Felicia up above
1248. msphar
NHC track for Felicia has her going towards the Northern end of the Big Island. North of Mauna Kea towards the oldest of the five major mountains that make up the Big Island, between Honoka'a and Hawi. This is a rugged and sparcely populated coastal land that rings and protects the Kohala basin to the West. Most of the energy will be expended on the Eastern to Northern coastline bringing copious amounts of rain to places like Wiapio Valley. Then whats left of it may slip by on towards Maui.
Morning all.
It's looking like April out in the Atlantic.
I dont recall such an August. If there was one, it was a long time ago.
Dr. Masters did a blog recently, on the Forecast for SAL. Weather 456 had a blog on this as well. Both suggested that a reduced SAL this season may encourage more waves to become potential storm systems.
So far, that has not happened. There is a good chance that August 15 th will still be quiet.
That's just fine with me.
Another quiet day in the Atlantic.



Quoting IKE:


Amen. They both do suck at cyclogenesis. They have to be suffering from convective feedback.

ECMWF shows limited action in the Atlantic through August 16th!

I have a question...I've been following the MJO charts and seeing it heading into the Atlantic. It's not that strong though. Question...what is more important...MJO or El Nino? It looks like El Nino is champ in the Atlantic in 2009. I wouldn't be shocked if it's after August 20th before the A storm happens.

TSR...13 storms in this? LMAO.


Or for that matter 10 from CSU? We better get cracking or we're all going to need to get in a bomb shelter to make it through September.
I personally think that once the SAL clears out more and the ULL clears N of PR we'll see something happen. More than likely next week. We seem to be on the cusp of favorable conditions and the slight MJO enhancement may be just enough to kick it into gear.
1253. msphar
Quiet in the Atlantic is just peachy keen to me as I am on my way to Puerto Rico at present, sitting in Charlotte waiting for connection to San Juan after taking the red eye from SFO. Felicia is enough to worry about at present. Cold water and the weight of Enrique should do her in soon.
1254. IKE
Quoting potteryX:
Morning all.
It's looking like April out in the Atlantic.
I dont recall such an August. If there was one, it was a long time ago.
Dr. Masters did a blog recently, on the Forecast for SAL. Weather 456 had a blog on this as well. Both suggested that a reduced SAL this season may encourage more waves to become potential storm systems.
So far, that has not happened. There is a good chance that August 15 th will still be quiet.
That's just fine with me.


You're in Barbados. I remember last summer you were on here almost every day talking about rain you had.

This summer I'm getting tons of rain.

Looks like a big plume of dust headed for you and islands to your north.....

Quoting IKE:


Amen. They both do suck at cyclogenesis. They have to be suffering from convective feedback.

ECMWF shows limited action in the Atlantic through August 16th!

I have a question...I've been following the MJO charts and seeing it heading into the Atlantic. It's not that strong though. Question...what is more important...MJO or El Nino? It looks like El Nino is champ in the Atlantic in 2009. I wouldn't be shocked if it's after August 20th before the A storm happens.

TSR...13 storms in this? LMAO.


They both had a tropical storm develop, today both show nada.
1256. IKE
Quoting DoubleAction:


They both had a tropical storm develop, today both show nada.


Like futuremet said...ECMWF.

I'm surprised someone hasn't started a SN on here of...0-0-0. CycloneOZ might be perfect for it...lol.....
Hi Ike.
Not B'dos, Trinidad&Tobago.
Our rainfall for June was 1/3 the norm. July was low by 1/2. Had a couple of waves pass though as you know, but the ITCZ -which is our
weather maker- has not really done it's thing as yet.
Of course, all that could change, fast and furious!
1258. msphar
Ike - Pottery is in Tobago, as in T&T (Trinidad and Tobago) South of Barbados.
1259. IKE
Oops....okay. Close though.
1260. DDR
Quoting potteryX:
Hi Ike.
Not B'dos, Trinidad&Tobago.
Our rainfall for June was 1/3 the norm. July was low by 1/2. Had a couple of waves pass though as you know, but the ITCZ -which is our
weather maker- has not really done it's thing as yet.
Of course, all that could change, fast and furious!

Hey pottery,long time no see,how is tobago?
July was pretty wet on my side,325mm at piarco and i got 300mm,but your right about june.
Is there anything to whats going on at 65w 25n? Looks like a swirl to it.
1262. crownwx
Hmmm...the Roundy TC experimental probability loop is interesting. Shows late Aug/early Sep increased probability in the Gulf of Mexico.

Link
Good to see you, DDR.
Correct, I should have been more specific.
July overall was average. But we had a deficit in Central Trinidad. In fact, my garden is yet to become mud this year. Normally, that central clay soil is a sticky mess by now.
1265. msphar
Sal, El Nino, weak MJO seems like the stars are aligned against this Atlantic season. We could use the break.
Quoting msphar:
Quiet in the Atlantic is just peachy keen to me as I am on my way to Puerto Rico at present, sitting in Charlotte waiting for connection to San Juan...


Be sure to lean out the window and wave to me when you go over the Turks & Caicos.

CRS
Any thoughts to the area above PR, at about 25n 65w?
1268. DDR
Quoting potteryX:
Good to see you, DDR.
Correct, I should have been more specific.
July overall was average. But we had a deficit in Central Trinidad. In fact, my garden is yet to become mud this year. Normally, that central clay soil is a sticky mess by now.

Point taken,Hopefully we'll catch up this month,you know how nasty August weather can get,I got one such example yesterday.
msphar, thats true. But my wife is planning to celebrate my birthday with a party on the 23 rd Aug. It is bound to come down in buckets that weekend. Look out! LOL



1267. stormsurge39 8:15 AM EDT on August 06, 2009
Any thoughts to the area above PR, at about 25n 65w?


SEE:



Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU AUG 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N67W TO MEANDER N OF PR FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING OVR THE WEEKEND. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W TO INTERACT WITH TUTT LOW TO
THE WEST AND ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NEXT 12 HRS. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD SW INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY FRI
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOME HAZE/DUST.


FCST GETS A LOT EASIER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
SW IN TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND SAHARAN LAYER AIR MOVES IN
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER/STABLE AIR MASS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


1271. Patrap
Felicia 11:30 UTC
Rainbow Image
I hear you DDR.
Scattered showers in Tobago. Heavy rain yesterday in Central.
The thing is, we have not seen the ITCZ sitting over us and raining for days at a time yet. "Mildew weather" is yet to come.
Thanks Ike
1274. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks Ike


Welcome.
1275. DDR
Quoting potteryX:
I hear you DDR.
Scattered showers in Tobago. Heavy rain yesterday in Central.
The thing is, we have not seen the ITCZ sitting over us and raining for days at a time yet. "Mildew weather" is yet to come.

That true,the itcz has been weak overall this year.
Is there anything associated with the blob of convection between 35w and 40w?
man it is quiet in here. With a Cat 4 out there you would think it would be busy in here
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is there anything associated with the blob of convection between 35w and 40w?


a weak low.
1279. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is there anything associated with the blob of convection between 35w and 40w?


...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 11N35W 8N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM 14N34W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N38W
TO 8N41W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.
The International Space Station might pass over Felicia later today.

Morning all,

1279, I was about to ask about this too, looks quite interesting to me, looks also as if it is dipping, strangely.

The loop makes it look quite interesting really.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

If it were not for the SAL map that IKE posted, I would think to be concerned about this.

Baje
I have updated my blog
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Ivan shook mobile(thought it was suppoesd to hit us), but rocked pensacola. The worst part is that pensacola thought it was supposed to hit Mobile, AL that night.


my job stupidly sent me from tallahassee to milton to get a contract signed (before the storm hit)for a grant, and I got caught in the evacuation mess. I-10 was still shut down with traffic backed up for hours from Ike? another storm a year before I think, anyway, my car kept overheating waiting in the long lines of traffic so to get back to tallahassee I went north and had to go almost to montgomery before I could get back to the panhandle. It was a nightmare. i always make sure I dont have to wait in traffic in a car prone to overheating or be on the road without gas when a storm is coming now.
1284. IKE
Good morning Ike
Morning all
Aw, what the heck, I'm not usually a baddie, but I'm going to liven things up...

Could this be ...Ana?

LOL
Can somebody explain to me why there is an area in the GOM? Is it because of the old frontal boundary? If so, I thought HP was preventing any development.
1289. IKE
Quoting bajelayman2:
Aw, what the heck, I'm not usually a baddie, but I'm going to liven things up...

Could this be ...Ana?

LOL


I think they should just skip that name. I would say the odds of your question becoming yes...are 1 in 20.

And good morning to all.
Ike thanks for the reply.

Maybe someone will be inspired to make a movie ' Wiating for Ana'.

Of course, it will be a girl in the movie....
Quoting cyclonekid:
Can somebody explain to me why there is an area in the GOM? Is it because of the old frontal boundary? If so, I thought HP was preventing any development.


Can someone explain the scale on that map? If it really is showing %, then that blip in GOM has a 1 in 300 chance the other spots are 1-1.5%.
Quoting bajelayman2:
Ike thanks for the reply.

Maybe someone will be inspired to make a movie ' Wiating for Ana'.

Of course, it will be a girl in the movie....

Presslord wants the part, he has the wardrobe and a lovely smile.
Does anyone happen to have the image of Wilma under like 60 knots of shear?
1295. Patrap
Prepare for the next hurricane with these gadgets
Posted 8/3/2009 1:56 PM


BILOXI, Miss. — Technology, developed in the four years since Hurricane Katrina, didn't necessarily come out of the hurricane but will help with evacuation, power outages and recovery if there is another big storm.
Stores on the coast are getting prepared, stocking everything from bottled water to the latest gadgets that will help residents get their home and office computers backed up and their families safely evacuated.






1296. IKE
Quoting largeeyes:


Can someone explain the scale on that map? If it really is showing %, then that blip in GOM has a 1 in 300 chance the other spots are 1-1.5%.


You're correct.
1297. Patrap
EP082009 - Hurricane FELICIA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

12:30 UTC
Felcia needs the clear eye again.
1300. 1088391
Good morning everyone.
I just had a thought, Its starting to look like TS Enrique is almost orbiting Hurricane Felicia. Is it possible that if this really is happening that Enrique can move in front of Felicia and work as a much need shield to the hostile environment?
This is just a thought.
1301. Patrap
Felicia can only sustain as the SSt's allow,and that window is about to close this afternoon as she encounters cooler waters to the west.
She sure is a Impressive Storm this morning though.
Quoting fireflymom:

Presslord wants the part, he has the wardrobe and a lovely smile.


I am hoping that you mean for the 'Leading Man' role, the guy 'Waiting for Ana'.

LOL
Quoting fireflymom:

Presslord wants the part, he has the wardrobe and a lovely smile.


; )
Our long lived AOI in the Atlantic has had its low/mid level cyclonic flow sheared out over the past 12 hours or so by strong northeasterlies. Despite more convection than yesterday, it's definitely worse for wear.

Oh and I'm sure you all talked about this, but Colorado State issued a 2 week forecast and the details can be found here:

CSU August 6 - August 20 Forecast

They call for below normal activity during the period. They list reasons like no current or forecasted storms, MJO in a suppressed phase over the Atlantic, and an overall forecast for the season to be below normal.

1305. Patrap

GOM IR Loop
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
1307. Patrap
C. Atlantic IR loop

What a season so far.SAL and cool temps in the EATL has really put a cap on 2009 season. in the carib and g/mex it has been strong vertical shear. everyone is now awaiting the magic MJO for a ramp up in activity 9 days to august 15th for the emergence of ANA
I take Ike's (1 in 20) as legit, but just humouring me...

I seem to remember a system that dipped when coming West, thus dropping from ENE of the islands, into the islands, passing as a storm?

This was quite a while back.

Is this right or is my memory playing tricks?
1311. IKE
Quoting stoormfury:
What a season so far.SAL and cool temps in the EATL has really put a cap on 2009 season. in the carib and g/mex it has been strong vertical shear. everyone is now awaiting the magic MJO for a ramp up in activity 9 days to august 15th for the emergence of ANA


Reading that link from OSUWXGUY, from CSU.....Most ensemble members keep the MJO in an unfavorable phase for Atlantic storms throughout the fifteen-day period.


What happened to the favorable MJO?

***And that outlook goes through August 20th***
Seem to be all jammed up. Not much going to happen until this upper level pattern releases. Maybe over the weekend into next week.

just because csu says so does not mean its going to happen i think once the tw hits warmer water watch out who paying 1-20 odds seems like a good bet bet 5$ get $100 if it develops for one its persistance is good and its moving into warmer water
1315. Patrap
Seems the MJO lost it's Mojo Ike..
1316. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
just because csu says so does not mean its going to happen i think once the tw hits warmer water watch out


I believe it because the ECMWF shows nothing through August 16th.

I've bookmarked and been looking at the MJO information daily. I never did see a strong MJO in the Atlantic with what I looked at.
1317. hydrus
Quoting robbieNDBC:
Does anyone happen to have the image of Wilma under like 60 knots of shear?
Try a Google search on Wilma and then check around,you might find it on Yahoo too.
1318. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Seems the MJO lost it's Mojo Ike..


Apparently so. I've got my own mojo....get back joe-joe....
1320. Patrap
Get back Loretta,..LOL
AS long as the TUTT is around, good bye to any tropical activity. it has to get out.
1322. Patrap
No tutt in the GOM,..and there is where we most likely will see something spin up in Mid August.

Quoting hydrus:
Try a Google search on Wilma and then check around,you might find it on Yahoo too.


Thank you. Sort of busy this morning and needed it for something. It was the first thing on Google Images lol. Thanks!
Yeah that blob in the GOM down by Key West looks rather interesting. Hopefully we can get some much needed rain up here.
Ishigakijima, Japan

8:00 PM 28.0 °C 26.0 °C 89% 975 HPA 4.5 Km Wind North 72.2 km/h / 20.1 m/s gust 100.0 km/h / 27.8 m/s
Another factor is MSLP is not dropping as is expected this time of the year. numbers forecast is about normal. it is my gut feeling the pressure will be released with a monster system. don't let your gaurd down with a false sense of security
Quoting AllStar17:
African Wave Train



Wave train that will go bye bye when it heads to the west. Allllll aboard
I think it would be a good idea if the WU main blog officially cancelled the hurricane season, that way we dont have to have the arguments, debates that always occur daily and everyone could go out and enjoy life.

Quoting IKE:


Reading that link from OSUWXGUY, from CSU.....Most ensemble members keep the MJO in an unfavorable phase for Atlantic storms throughout the fifteen-day period.


What happened to the favorable MJO?

***And that outlook goes through August 20th***


I think part of why the MJO is weak and not really migrating east is that the El Nino locks the convective pattern in the Pacific.

You get higher than normal convection in the central and eastern Pacific and lower in the Western Pacific/Eastern Indian where the MJO pulses originate from...
Why the heck is everyone downcasting the tropical Atlantic? Lets face it people: the tropics will start to get active really soon and when it does i have a feeling it might not be so pretty and you guys wont be downcasting then.
no hope this yr. just when you think maybe there is going to be something csu says no and then ike slams the door shut. still a $5 bet does not sound that bad does grey pay up if hes wrong. i do see the blocker also no doubt the poop shoot needs to be flowing once again im not waisting my time with the epac
1307, then 1305 - follow the leader
Rain for me, rain for you Patrap, better down than sideways but watch out for the sparks.
Anyone know where to see satellite obs (mid ocean) lightning data (real or near real time)?
And thus begins the timeframe when Felicia's feeding is cut-off and she begins a slow, agonizing death to TS or TD status.

There's a great roundtrip ticket price from Phoenix to Hilo. VerizonWireless is strong in the Hilo area. And I have my gear configured for air-travel.

This storm better freakin' die if the "no-go" option is played tomorrow!

1336. Patrap
That cluster of Boomers is diving South in a Hurry,thru Miss our way. Should be here this afternoon.

GOM IR Loop
Good morning, all!
NOAA released their outlook, calling for an average to below average season

7-11 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
1-2 Major hurricanes

Here is the important part for this blog.

NOAA urges that just because the season has been quiet, that shows absolutely no indications for the rest of the season and to NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN.
Everybody, here are NOAA's hugely anticipated updated number.

Named Storms: 8-11

Hurricanes 3-6

Major Hurricanes 1-2

Enjoy, folks, :)
As soon as the pattern breaks next week the MJO will swing around, then, shortly after you'll have storms to track.

No breakie pattern, No trackie storms.
Speaking of El Nino...




Newest ENSO Update by the CPC
See discrepencey between Burned & WS NOAA numbers..

OZ~ It's not going to be worth it..
even if you take the lower end of that, 7 named storms from the middle of August on is still plenty to track
1344. hahaguy
Quoting Skyepony:
See discrepencey between Burned & WS NOAA numbers..

OZ~ It's not going to be worth it..


Ya one has 8 and one has 7 storms.
Felicia flexing some muscle.
1346. Patrap
At least Felicia Has a Shirt on..LOL
AS expected...


Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I think it would be a good idea if the WU main blog officially cancelled the hurricane season, that way we dont have to have the arguments, debates that always occur daily and everyone could go out and enjoy life.



Sounds like a plan, maybe we can have a summer weather blog :)
i see the t/storm of this wave is moving little down to the south.
Burned was right..

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).
1351. Buhdog
That plume of tropical moisture off the swfl coast is blowin up....

very interesting

Link
Our CATL AOI still has persisting thunderstorms.
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
i see the t/storm of this wave is moving little down to the south.


The wave is starting to travel under and feel the effects of the ridge of high pressure. See post 1312.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Speaking of El Nino...




Newest ENSO Update by the CPC


Thanks for the post. But if I read this right El Nino won't really start to strengthen until AFTER this season is almost over, Oct/Nov time frame. But I guess it's strong enough now to help inhibit storms.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
NOAA released their outlook, calling for an average to below average season

7-11 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
1-2 Major hurricanes

Here is the important part for this blog.

NOAA urges that just because the season has been quiet, that shows absolutely no indications for the rest of the season and to NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN.


So maybe they know something we don't or they might see something. But there are alot of really smart people on here and they have looked at everything that's going on and it looks like hurricane season looks like a dud. I'm not saying there's not gonna be a cane but it sounds like it's gonna be really hard for one to form. But i am no pro i just read what everyone writes on here.

Sheri
1352, 1353
Are the thunderstorms?
How do we know? (1334?)
Quoting Skyepony:


OZ~ It's not going to be worth it..


Any reason at all to go the Hawaii makes it worth it, don't ya think?

Hawaii, the Big Island...land of volcanos and Kona Coffee. Lush, tropical vegetation...

...and a storm to boot!

It is so very very very hard for me not to pull the trigger right now and give you folks a live webcam look at Felicia (no matter her condition) early next week.
1358. fmbill
Quoting AllStar17:
Our CATL AOI still has persisting thunderstorms.


I noticed that. Shees...if persistance alone determined a storm, this one would get a name! It sure seems to hang on. Terrible structure...but yet it survives.

Good morning everyone!!!
Is Felicia trying to become annular?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
NOAA released their outlook, calling for an average to below average season

7-11 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
1-2 Major hurricanes

Here is the important part for this blog.

NOAA urges that just because the season has been quiet, that shows absolutely no indications for the rest of the season and to NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN.


I'm still hoping for a zero impact storm season this year.
1361. cg2916
Didn't expect much, forecast down. New blog should be out any second.
Quoting fmbill:


I noticed that. Shees...if persistance alone determined a storm, this one would get a name! It sure seems to hang on. Terrible structure...but yet it survives.

Good morning everyone!!!


If it gets under favorable conditions, since it has persisted all this time, it may stand a chance after all.
Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
95 percent of the predictions are wrong on this site so i will add to that ALERT!!! TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING OFF FLORIDA KEYS all interests in western florida shold pay close attention to this developing situation and be prepared to take imediate action due to the close proxcimity to the swest florida coast forcaster blueberry 30mg


??????
1365. fmbill
The 12z NAM seems to showing some activity associarted with those gulf showers, too.

Link
1363 POOF
Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
95 percent of the predictions are wrong on this site so i will add to that ALERT!!! TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING OFF FLORIDA KEYS all interests in western florida shold pay close attention to this developing situation and be prepared to take imediate action due to the close proxcimity to the swest florida coast forcaster blueberry 30mg

3.0mg VALIUM! stat

RE:1356 http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/09jan_electrichurricanes.htm
SOME WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOON AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...FELICIA
IS DEMONSTRATING SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..
.
WHICH COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN
IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER MARGINAL SSTS. FOR THESE REASONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA
WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR DISSIPATED...BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
1352, 1353
Are the thunderstorms?
How do we know? (1334?)


Link
Where's his new blog?
1371. P451
Felicia has peaked and will probably begin weakening in about 12 hours as it enters progressively cooler waters and higher shear.

Hawaii is well protected by water far too cool to maintain any more than a moderate TS and by a good heavy dose of 50kt shear.

It's par for the course for systems trying to move in from the east so anyone worried that Hawaii is going to get clobbered by a hurricane let alone a major hurricane - well don't.

It will be a TS at best. Probably a depression.

Main concern: Flooding rains and landslides. Even that cannot be forecast yet as it is unknown how well the convection will hold together in the face of that shear and cooler SSTs.

This isn't the Atlantic, folks, this is an entirely different situation and they all end the same: Major hurricane gets torn apart into a remnant low as it nears the islands.
1372. P451
Quoting Claudette1234:


What about Atlantic The wave still there most people died it but looking maps still a chance to survive.


I don't think anyone killed it - what most people were saying is that significant development was unlikely. In that, if it did reach depression status or even minimal TS status the chances of survival were next to nothing given the dust, dry air, and wind shear.
1363.

Stormtop, is that you?

And last time I checked, blueberries were not by prescription nor are they administered in 30mg doses.
thanks port charlotte for your forecast. there is alittle hope
NEW BLOG!!!!
1377. IKE
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


I think part of why the MJO is weak and not really migrating east is that the El Nino locks the convective pattern in the Pacific.

You get higher than normal convection in the central and eastern Pacific and lower in the Western Pacific/Eastern Indian where the MJO pulses originate from...


That makes sense.

Thanks.
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
1379. Ossqss
Quoting CycloneOz:


Any reason at all to go the Hawaii makes it worth it, don't ya think?

Hawaii, the Big Island...land of volcanos and Kona Coffee. Lush, tropical vegetation...

...and a storm to boot!

It is so very very very hard for me not to pull the trigger right now and give you folks a live webcam look at Felicia (no matter her condition) early next week.


OZ, You can borrow my boat to keep expenses down :) ooops everyone left --- new blog

Man this thing is starting to produce some nice convection. Looks better and better as the day progresses.

NWS RADAR

Even starting to have rotation in it.
I finally figured out where to get the current Annular index for Felicia.. I posted the INDEX determining page last night but found where they hide the current per storm. On a scale of 0-100 with 100 being totally annular Felicia is still a 1..

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
Quoting Skyepony:


Link


Thanks Skye
Backlinking, I see the data is from ground-based RF (VLF band) sensors. It does give an idea of lightning (or lack thereof) in those waves & tropical systems.
Oh, Duh! NEW BLOG
1383. cg2916
New blog!