WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Earl--First Caribbean Hurricane Since Sandy of 2012--Hits Belize

By: Jeff Masters 2:02 PM GMT on August 04, 2016

Hurricane Earl--the first hurricane in the Caribbean since Hurricane Sandy of 2012--made landfall near Belize City, Belize as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds near 2 am EDT Thursday, August 4, 2016. Earl was the strongest hurricane to hit Belize since Hurricane Richard on October 23, 2010, which made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Earl's strongest winds observed at the Belize Airport were sustained at 34 mph, gusting to 58 mph, between 10 pm and midnight local time on Wednesday evening. However, data stopped transmitting at 3 am when the center of the storm reached the airport. A personal weather station on Ambergris Caye, which received a battering from a portion of Earl's northern eyewall, recorded sustained winds of 46 mph, with a wind gust of 69 mph at 10:45 pm local time Wednesday. The station lost power shortly thereafter. Damage is likely to be significant in Belize City.


Figure 1. Storm chaser Josh Morgerman of icyclone.com rode out Earl from Belize City, and took this photo of the storm surge inundating the city at 2 am local time on August 4, 2016. "Definitely the most-epic Cat 1 I've chased. A hurricane of consequence. Will be remembered by Belizeans," he commented on his Twitter feed.


Figure 2. Belize radar as seen at 11:15 pm EDT August 3, 2016, shortly before Hurricane Earl made landfall near Belize City. Check out this extended radar loop of Earl saved by Brian McNoldy.

Dangerous rains coming from Earl
Satellite loops and Belize radar on Thursday morning showed Earl was steadily weakening as it moved inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, with the heavy thunderstorm activity shrinking in areal coverage and intensity. Earl will continue moving on a mostly westward track at 10 - 15 mph over the next few days, and will likely dissipate by Sunday. Earl is not likely to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico far enough to undergo any significant regeneration.

Earl grew into a large hurricane on Wednesday, and was able to tap into the Eastern Pacific as an additional source of moisture. When hurricanes are able to tap into both the Atlantic and Pacific as moisture sources, very dangerous heavy rains that affect a large portion of Mexico and Central America usually result, and Earl's heavy rains are going to be a major concern for the region. With rainfall amounts in excess of 8" expected over a swath of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, most of Belize, and a big chunk of southern Mexico, expect to see many reports of life-threatening flash floods and landslides.


Figure 3. Lightning lights up the interior of Tropical Storm Earl as seen by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters on August 2, 2016. Image credit: 1st Lt. Leesa Froelich, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Air Force Hurricane Hunters Facebook page.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, August 11, 2016. Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches (orange colors) are expected along a stretch of the Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
There are no other tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. A broad surface low pressure system is forecast to develop near the coast of Alabama early next week, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will bring a moist flow of air over the coast from Alabama to Tampa, resulting in heavy rains. In their 00Z Thursday runs, about 20% of the members of both the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted that this low could develop into a tropical depression sometime Monday through Wednesday. Regardless of development, coastal regions from New Orleans to Tampa can expect heavy rains exceeding three inches next week, as highlighted in the latest precipitation forecast from NOAA (Figure 4.)

Ivette active in the Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific continues to be active, with Tropical Storm Ivette gathering strength in the Pacific waters south of the Mexican coast. Ivette will be moving away from the Mexican coast on a west to west-northwest track, and is expected to peak as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday before cooler waters and less favorable atmospheric conditions result in weakening. Ivette will likely die out well before reaching Hawaii.

There is one more area of concern in the Eastern Pacific: the possible arrival of the remnants of Hurricane Earl early next week. Earl will cease to exist as a named storm during its long traverse of Mexico during the coming weekend, but if Earl's remnants manage to cross over Mexico and arrive over the waters off the coast of Puerto Vallarta with some spin still intact, regeneration into a tropical storm is possible. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the remnants of Earl 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 60%, respectively. The 00Z Thursday run of the European model predicted that Earl's remnants would regenerate into a tropical storm that would bring heavy rains to the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Interesting read Dr. Jeff Masters. I hope all the people affected by Earl's rains are prepared.
does anyone know what the MJO forecast is for the next couple of months. Is it going to continue to suppress Atlantic systems like it has been this year or are we going to have an active fall hurricane season in the Atl Basin/GOM.....

Just curious,....it's been awhile since a CONUS landfall....last year was dead as a duck.....is this year going to be as dead as last year?
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Overall I think Belize was quite lucky. Earl was slow to develop and even in the Western Caribbean Earl never rapidly intensified and "only" made landfall as a CAT1. I can only imagine if Earl had gone through rapid intensification and made landfall as a major hurricane.
hey dr m

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
There are no other tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today


thats not really ture


ex 96L is doing well



and it has really came back too life this Am

ex 96L needs too watch has it could pull a trick on us even no model runs are not showing nothing
Quoting 6. thetwilightzone:

hey dr m

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
There are no other tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today


thats not really ture


ex 96L is doing well



and it has really came back too life this Am

ex 96L needs too watch has it could pull a trick on us even no model runs are not showing nothing


Yes that the one now to watch .... but Shear is not favourable



Quoting 7. VR46L:



Yes that the one now to watch .... but Shear is not favourable






but it will be moving into a more favourable area soon make commit like that and your will easy get shot down
Wow!
">
Quoting 8. thetwilightzone:



but it will be moving into a more favourable area soon make commit like that and your will easy get shot down


Haha .... I dont care about things like that ... have been the downcaster of weather blogs for years now :)

yes there is a tiny area ahead that will be favourable but then its back into destructive shear again ...
Quoting 9. bigwes6844:

Wow!
">


wow is right look like things will be dead after ex 96L
Quoting 10. VR46L:



Haha .... I dont care about things like that ... have been the downcaster of weather blogs for years now :)

yes there is a tiny area ahead that will be favourable but then its back into destructive shear again ...


that could give ex 96L small window of a ch
Quoting 903. LouisPasteur:



Baha, I'd like to introduce you to Earl. Earl... this is Baha. Apparently you two haven't met.
What part of "sooner" do you not understand .... but just for you, I'm thinking "major landfall" when I say "whacked".
i think we could see 10 named storms this season we this need 5 more named storms too get there
Quoting 12. thetwilightzone:



that could give ex 96L small window of a ch


It will be all about timing ....and an extremely small window at that :)
Quoting 15. VR46L:



It will be all about timing ....and an extremely small window at that :)


will all so have too see what the next winds shear map update showes
Quoting 9. bigwes6844:

Wow!
">

While it looks like the Atlantic will be in a somewhat suppressed MJO phase, the East Pacific will also be greatly suppressed, if not more suppressed than the Atlantic. A suppressed MJO does not mean that a storm cannot form.
A lot of the convective activity with ex-96L can be attributed to the high shear it's undergoing right now, which is creating divergence aloft.
Quoting 9. bigwes6844:

Wow!
">


Does not look good for Atlantic activity most of the month.
Quoting 13. BahaHurican:

What part of "sooner" do you not understand .... but just for you, I'm thinking "major landfall" when I say "whacked".
The Second and Third most destructive storms in US History were a Cat 1 and a Cat 2, so maybe you should change your definition of Whacked
Although the MJO looks to be suppressed over the coming weeks, still going to be watching out for the potential of a homegrown storm especially the northern gulf next week with a low expected to form and bring a ton of rain here in Florida and elsewhere along the gulf coast. Some models are sniffing it out a little and like Dr. Masters said some ensemble members are showing signs as well for development. Needs to be watched for sure.
Quoting 19. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Does not look good for Atlantic activity most of the month.
SAL is back again suppressing the waves that are coming off West Africa.
(from last blog)
Quoting 905. Methurricanes:

what season had the longest streak of Landfalling systems, does anyone know? If there is a storm in the gulf next week we are probably up to 6.

Good question. Sounds like a job for "wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt."
Quoting 23. Climate175:

SAL is back again suppressing the waves that are coming off West Africa.


Even with no SAL they don't develop :(
Quoting 20. Methurricanes:

The Second and Third most destructive storms in US History were a Cat 1 and a Cat 2, so maybe you should change your definition of Whacked


And the names of those storms are...
(or is it a secret?)
Next focus should shift to the NE GOM. The NWS here in Tampa has rain chances over 50% every day for the next week.

It has been raining all morning with more rain offshore. Even if the tropics are not active, the weather along the NE Gulf will be with the potential for some tropical development as well.
Quoting 26. mikatnight:



And the names of those storms are...
(or is it a secret?)


He is right, Sandy was a Cat 1, Ike was a Cat 2
Quoting 25. CaribBoy:



Even with no SAL they don't develop :(


I bet you will get a storm this year !

I have no proof why , but there is a long season to go and It might well be a big one !
Quoting 9. bigwes6844:

Wow!
">

MJO in the Atlantic looks to be supressed for next ten days then returning to netural phase for the second half or so of August so Im predicting we end up with one or two more named storms for August which would put us slightly above average (2 storms in August is average)
Quoting 13. BahaHurican:

What part of "sooner" do you not understand .... but just for you, I'm thinking "major landfall" when I say "whacked".


You do realize that the phrase "sooner or later" refers to a non-specific time in the future. Or maybe you don't.
Quoting 23. Climate175:

SAL is back again suppressing the waves that are coming off West Africa.


MDR may be quiet for a while which means keep paying attention out there even with all the limiting factors but probably not much will get going.. I think in close development is more of the worry especially early next week with the low in northern gulf at this point in time.
CMC is showing this in about 11 days,looks like it comes close but never comes onshore..................
Just my morning thoughts before I head out for the day...Yesterday people were assuming others were missing because they love doom and gloom...well yesterday I spent that time with my kids and invested that energy into enjoying our family night.Rather than argue with strangers over a storm that was basically Ernesto 2.0 I used it to put into something positive.2 I see others were comparing this to Ernesto yesterday...something that I've been said several days ago ;-).
Quoting 23. Climate175:

SAL is back again suppressing the waves that are coming off West Africa.
It should start retreating northward as we go farther into the season. After all, it was July a while ago, the month with the strongest SAL outbreaks. I say activity will pick up around mid to late August. We'll see.
Quoting 33. WeatherkidJoe2323:



MDR may be quiet for a while which means keep paying attention out there even with all the limiting factors but probably not much will get going.. I think in close development is more of the worry especially early next week with the low in northern gulf at this point in time.
So far that has been the theme, waves get into a more favorable area closer to home and develop.
Quoting 28. Hurricanes101:



He is right, Sandy was a Cat 1, Ike was a Cat 2


Sandy was the strangest storm , I tracked ! It was a Cat 3 in the Bahamas If my memory is correct and then became this massive Hybrid Beast which was ex-tropical when it hit New Jersey/ New York .
Then that comment of how does this fit into anything. We should make a game out of this. Break different land masses into zones with point values for landfalling systems of different intensities. Such as New Jersey would get more points than Florida. You are allowed to pick three zones out of like 12 and have a certain amount of points to attain in a season in order to win (or who gets the most).......... As you can see I don't get out much XD -someone will appreciate this. -okay bye
Quoting 3. StormtrooperNathan:

does anyone know what the MJO forecast is for the next couple of months. Is it going to continue to suppress Atlantic systems like it has been this year or are we going to have an active fall hurricane season in the Atl Basin/GOM.....

Just curious,....it's been awhile since a CONUS landfall....last year was dead as a duck.....is this year going to be as dead as last year?


Last year TS Ana hit the CONUS.
Quoting 35. washingtonian115:

Just my morning thoughts before I head out for the day...Yesterday people were assuming others were missing because they love doom and gloom...well yesterday I spent that time with my kids and invested that energy into enjoying our family night.Rather than argue with strangers over a storm that was basically Ernesto 2.0 I used it to put into something positive.2 I see others were comparing this to Ernesto yesterday...something that I've been said several days ago ;-).


1st off, it is generally not looked upon greatly when you pat yourself on the back so hard it leaves a handprint. 2nd, last night was actually very pleasant on here because after all the doom and gloomers and non interested parties left, all that was left were those who love tropical weather and love tracking these storms. Those who love looking at radar and recon data. Also, there are people on this blog who live in Honduras and Belize and we care about those as well.
Quoting 28. Hurricanes101:



He is right, Sandy was a Cat 1, Ike was a Cat 2


According to wikipedia it's: Katrina (Cat 3), Sandy (ET), Ike (Cat 2), Wilma (Cat 3), Andrew (Cat 5).
Note that Sandy wasn't technically a hurricane at landfall. Probably irrelevant though.
However, if storms are ranked by Inflation, Population and Wealth Normalization
then the Great Miami Hurricane (Cat 4) of 1926 outstrips them all at 164.8 billion.
It was also the 10th deadliest (372 people killed)
and 8th lowest pressure (tied with 1960 Donna).
Quoting 3. StormtrooperNathan:

does anyone know what the MJO forecast is for the next couple of months. Is it going to continue to suppress Atlantic systems like it has been this year or are we going to have an active fall hurricane season in the Atl Basin/GOM.....

Just curious,....it's been awhile since a CONUS landfall....last year was dead as a duck.....is this year going to be as dead as last year?


We have already had 2 US landfalls this year and every storm so far has made landfall somewhere

We are well above average in terms of named storms. This season is not dead.
Quoting 14. thetwilightzone:

i think we could see 10 named storms this season we this need 5 more named storms too get there

I'm thinking we'll get a few more than 10 maybe around 13-15 because we're already above average for named storms/hurricanes so even if we get the average number of storms for the rest of the season we'll end up with an above average season.
Quoting 34. LargoFl:

CMC is showing this in about 11 days,looks like it comes close but never comes onshore..................


Ready for a lot of rain in the next week? July was pretty active over parts of Largo and Clearwater, looks like it will continue.
Quoting 45. Hurricanes101:



Ready for a lot of rain in the next week? July was pretty active over parts of Largo and Clearwater, looks like it will continue.
yes just saw some models are putting us at 20 inches thru next mon-tues whew
The first hurricane to cause over $1 billion in damage was Hurricane Betsy in 1965.
I wonder, what year will have the 1st trillion dollar storm?
Quoting 40. MahFL:



Last year TS Ana hit the CONUS.


And Colin
There is this large CATL tropical wave positioned at 45 W with broad cyclonic turning . the wave has good vorticity at all levels , with the strongest at 500 mb the area is devoid of much convection and yesterday was carrying a low with it.
Quoting 31. LouisPasteur:



You do realize that the phrase "sooner or later" refers to a non-specific time in the future. Or maybe you don't.
Actually I do.
I'm hoping that the cat 1 Earl does not constitute the kind of "whack" for Belize that cat 1 Sandy or cat 2 Ike constituted for the US.
Quoting 20. Methurricanes:

The Second and Third most destructive storms in US History were a Cat 1 and a Cat 2, so maybe you should change your definition of Whacked
I might add to my definition "or any TC that causes major destruction and / or loss of life in a locale", which would mean I could legitimately claim that Erika "whacked" Dominica last year.
Quoting 40. MahFL:



Last year TS Ana hit the CONUS.

As did Tropical Storm Bill.

47. Patrap

My rain gauge is so depressed.
Complains it has an empty life.
Quoting 50. stoormfury:

There is this large CATL tropical wave positioned at 45 W with broad cyclonic turning . the wave has good vorticity at all levels , with the strongest at 500 mb the area is devoid of much convection and yesterday was carrying a low with it.

Looks pretty dry though. If it can fire thunderstorms and get going it would be worth watching. I am actually more worried about it siphoning off energy from 96L
Well, with Earl nearly dead, expect the "this season is a dud" comments to return in a few days.
Quoting 20. Methurricanes:

The Second and Third most destructive storms in US History were a Cat 1 and a Cat 2, so maybe you should change your definition of Whacked


I would also put human lives as a more important factor than destruction costs.

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (CAT4) should be at the top of any list. I think 8000 people being killed is more important than the cost of damage to buildings.
Thanks for the update Dr M. Reading some of the comments from bloggers from Belize reminded me of my night with Humberto. It was a sleepless one. Hope everyone made it through ok.

Someone asked about the streak of land falling storms. I'm not sure what the longest streak was but 1886 had a ton of them. 12 storms (that they know of pre satellite era) 10 hurricanes, 4 majors. 11 of them hit land, I believe. 4 hit Cuba. 7 hit the gulf coast. Some even crossed paths with each other. Storms crossing over the same places an earlier storm had hit. That was a bad year. I don't know what was happening but I hope it doesn't happen again.
Quoting 25. CaribBoy:



Even with no SAL they don't develop :(
Nothing much going on the African continents as well pretty dry....
Quoting 34. LargoFl:

CMC is showing this in about 11 days,looks like it comes close but never comes onshore..................

I'd trust a van with "free candy" spray painted on the side before I'd trust the CMC model.
Quoting 25. CaribBoy:



Even with no SAL they don't develop :(


Are you not getting anything from ex-96L? I know sometimes they tend to just miss you, but maybe something will give you a nice bubble-up over you...
61. vis0
most important is to stay updated with the motion of the EARL (exEARL) and the human beings affected.

If Earl does hit the Pac then comes back to GoMx and circulation stay independent of fronts and re-fires anywhere (BO, off East coast or GoMx) as a TS....
1) How rare?
2) naming situation (hope its not out of those small cages that raffles winners are picked out of)



3) will Dr. Masters be vacationing** next week.

**vacationing wink wink.
W
e know that Dr. Masters has the latest weather forecasting tools and when Dr. Masters sees a TS looming a week out the Dr. runs towards the middle room zzzips down a aluminum pole where what his wearing becomes magically steamed and pressed sits in front of the "megaForecastrer 5000" connects with NHC and gives the NHC top quality assistance.    Then once no TS is in the foreseeable future Dr. Masters magically returns quickly from "vacation...except that one time when the up elevator was broken and the good Dr. had to pull himself up the down pole ooouch!

most important is to stay updated with the motion of the EARL (exEARL) and the human beings affected.
thanks for update doc
earl trolled us right till Belize
then took a swipe on the way out

latest Atlantic area image now we await what's next
63. vis0

Quoting 55. HurricaneFan:

Well, with Earl nearly dead, expect the "this season is a dud" comments to return in a few days.
Either trying reverse psychology on Nature or this is how HurricaneFan categorizes tropical weather::

OH YEAH! (every other day)*
OKAY(18-22)*
active (15-17)*
ahhh (11-14)*
dud (7-10)*
nothing happened (1-6)*

*as long as none come within 100miles if  where HurricaneFan lives

was i close?
UKMET has genesis in GOM


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 120 : 28.7N 84.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.08.2016 120 28.7N 84.7W 1009 28
0000UTC 10.08.2016 132 28.8N 85.1W 1005 30
1200UTC 10.08.2016 144 29.5N 85.3W 1001 41



65. bwi
Quick update from the northern hemisphere's icebox. After a warm winter and record or near-record lows for arctic sea ice extent, area, and volume this spring, the weather turned mediocre for melting in June and July -- peak solar input months -- with lots of small-ish low pressure areas and cloudiness.

However, sea ice measures are still flirting with record territory, despite the not-so-great melting weather, possibly due to abnormally warm seas surrounding the ice on pretty much all sides.

This week's weather looks very good for melting (bad for ice) with a warm sunny high pressure over the Alaskan and Canadian side, which could melt lots of vulnerable ice, and low pressure on the Russian side of the pole, which could cause winds to push ice out into the warm Atlantic where it would be susceptible to bottom melt.

Sea ice extent


Mean temps north of 80n


High pressure on the American side and low on the Russian side


By later this week, pretty warm all around the arctic basin


Galveston deaths could be as high as 12,000.
Nothing to worry about in the Caribbean. Yet.
Thank you Dr. Masters ...
Quoting 48. mikatnight:

The first hurricane to cause over $1 billion in damage was Hurricane Betsy in 1965.
I wonder, what year will have the 1st trillion dollar storm?
Year? It will be a Cat 4 or 5 hitting a major city head on at high tide.
Quoting 56. Sfloridacat5:



I would also put human lives as a more important factor than destruction costs.

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (CAT4) should be at the top of any list. I think 8000 people being killed is more important than the cost of damage to buildings.
That was more due to poor forecasting and emergency response than the storm being awful to another level, if it were to happen today I don't think it would be much more deadly than Ike or Sandy. (the 1915 storm was similar to 1900, and it had an Ike-like impact)
There is a huge difference pre and post WWII in weather Forecasting. Hurricane Carol (1954) and the Hurricane of 1938 were nearly identical storms, and the Hurricane of 38 killed many more people.
Quoting 36. Kyon5:

It should start retreating northward as we go farther into the season. After all, it was July a while ago, the month with the strongest SAL outbreaks. I say activity will pick up around mid to late August. We'll see.

It "should", but the wild card remains that cold pool in the N Atl and its enhancement of the high pressure area that continues to dominate.
Quoting 61. vis0:

most important is to stay updated with the motion of the EARL (exEARL) and the human beings affected.

If Earl does hit the Pac then comes back to GoMx and circulation stay independent of fronts and re-fires anywhere (BO, off East coast or GoMx) as a TS....
1) How rare?
2) naming situation (hope its not out of those small cages that raffles winners are picked out of)



3) will Dr. Masters be vacationing** next week.

**vacationing wink wink.
W
e know that Dr. Masters has the latest weather forecasting tools and when Dr. Masters sees a TS looming a week out the Dr. runs towards the middle room zzzips down a aluminum pole where what his wearing becomes magically steamed and pressed sits in front of the "megaForecastrer 5000" connects with NHC and gives the NHC top quality assistance.    Then once no TS is in the foreseeable future Dr. Masters magically returns quickly from "vacation...except that one time when the up elevator was broken and the good Dr. had to pull himself up the down pole ooouch!

most important is to stay updated with the motion of the EARL (exEARL) and the human beings affected.



Hurricanefan is not the one making those comments, but commenting on the fact that over the last few years, people come on when it is quiet and claim the season is a bust. Those same people disappear when it is active only to come back when it is quiet again to claim the season is a bust.
Quoting 11. thetwilightzone:



wow is right look like things will be dead after ex 96L
Why?
Not surprising that there's some possibility of Earl generating activity in the Pacific. 97L/Earl was mostly a vigorous midlevel wave during its existence, and that midlevel circulation is capable of surviving a trek across the mountains of Central America, as many tropical waves do. It would have more difficulty making it across the central plateau of Mexico, with two major mountain ranges to cross, but its present course suggests it may travel south of the plateau. We shall see.
The NWFL panhandle has been getting a lot of thunderstorms the last few days. Is all that instability what is forecasted to be the next tropical system in the GOM?
Quoting 77. Grothar:





Ummmm..would you label ex-96L a splat or a blob or is it too early for such labeling?
Quoting 73. unknowncomic:




Models are unuseful.
Quoting 81. rmbjoe1954:




Ummmm..would you label ex-96L a splat or a blob or is it too early for such labeling?


Still waiting...
He's a glass half empty kind of guy, huh.

Quoting 53. mikatnight:

47. Patrap

My rain gauge is so depressed.
Complains it has an empty life.
Quoting 81. rmbjoe1954:




Ummmm..would you label ex-96L a splat or a blob or is it too early for such labeling?


A splat for now. Conditions not all that favorable, but it looks pretty healthy. I'll be watching the Gulf this week. Long term models indicate an impulse might be moving in that direction and something could form. Common this time of year. Some good depressions have formed from these.
Quoting 70. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



SSTs definitely won't be an issue this year with those toasty temps
Quoting 76. BayFog:

Not surprising that there's some possibility of Earl generating activity in the Pacific. 97L/Earl was mostly a vigorous midlevel wave during its existence, and that midlevel circulation is capable of surviving a trek across the mountains of Central America, as many tropical waves do. It would have more difficulty making it across the central plateau of Mexico, with two major mountain ranges to cross, but its present course suggests it may travel south of the plateau. We shall see.


Well, looking at https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobari c/850hPa/orthographic=-82.90,15.97,3000
it looks like it very well could slink down between one of the flattest parts to the Pacific, and/or get sucked into the spin on that side.

in the url, need to backspace between the i and c in isobaric, it won't let me do it LOL

Orleans Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsHeat Advisory Orleans Parish
Issued: 10:39 AM CDT Aug. 4, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Heat advisory in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a heat
advisory... which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* Temperature... heat index values of 108 to 112 degrees

* duration... from late morning through early evening

* impacts... heat stress will reach dangerous levels and could lead
to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

   Take extra precautions... if you work or spend time outside.
When possible... reschedule strenuous activities to early morning
or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

   To reduce risk during outdoor work... the occupational safety
and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest
breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome
by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat
stroke is an emergency... call 9 1 1.

After being dominated by upper ridging most of late June into most of July across most of FL, the result was above after heat and below average rainfall for many areas. What's interesting is that some areas still did get very heavy rains, despite that the 500 mb pressure anomalies over FL historically would yield major drought by now.

I was one of those areas that got a lot more, we finished with 15 inches for June thanks to 10 inches from TS Colin, and 11 inches for July.

Now we are finally seeing a pattern not related to strong upper ridging. What's interesting to note is that despite that troughing will be very weak, models are forecasting a significant rain event for Central and North FL. It seems in recent years that all it takes is a slight bit of troughing and weak low pressure to create major rainfall in this area. This is due to very large amounts of tropical moisture expected to be locked in for several days.
What's interesting to note, is that this is the same exact pattern that dominated much of July and August here last summer, leading to incredible amounts of rainfall across parts of the area, I had 46 inches of rain in June to August, but some areas north pf me had over 50 inches in just 2 months!

Currently, the WPC has 6 to 10 inches from the Tampa Bay area north, but these numbers may keep increasing, as both the GFS and ecmwf continue to trend heavier, with the GFS now showing as much as 15-20 inches north of Tampa with around 10-12 around Tampa near the coast, with still heavy totals inland, but not quite as much for obvious reasons being warm ocean waters allow for training of tropical convection.

Quoting 77. Grothar:


Oh, yeah....
You're not the only one eying that.....
Quoting 82. CaribBoy:



Models are unuseful.

No models are good when people don't take them as forecasts and realize it's only one possibility from one of many models.
Possibly well over 10,000. Also in terms of scale, an entire port city was basically destroyed and economically would never be the same. Houston grew as a result.

Quoting 56. Sfloridacat5:



I would also put human lives as a more important factor than destruction costs.

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (CAT4) should be at the top of any list. I think 8000 people being killed is more important than the cost of damage to buildings.
Quoting 60. mitthbevnuruodo:



Are you not getting anything from ex-96L? I know sometimes they tend to just miss you, but maybe something will give you a nice bubble-up over you...


I wonder if ex96L will move towards florida and inhance the rain coverage the next few days. I am just glad to see rain moving in here in ecfl. About time!
Quoting 48. mikatnight:

The first hurricane to cause over $1 billion in damage was Hurricane Betsy in 1965.
I wonder, what year will have the 1st trillion dollar storm?

Please keep in mind that one trillion = one thousand billion (and one billion = one thousand million, one million = one thousand thousand)
Quoting 64. nrtiwlnvragn:

UKMET has genesis in GOM


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 120 : 28.7N 84.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.08.2016 120 28.7N 84.7W 1009 28
0000UTC 10.08.2016 132 28.8N 85.1W 1005 30
1200UTC 10.08.2016 144 29.5N 85.3W 1001 41





As a slow moving middling tropical storm. Nice soaker.
Quoting 96. ACSeattle:


Please keep in mind that one trillion = one thousand billion (and one billion = one thousand million, one million = one thousand thousand)

The only way that is possible is if a Large Cat 3 or 4 took a path roughly similar to Sandy, NYC/NNJ is really the only area of the country with enough stuff to have a trillion dollar storm.
For example the Gulf Coast from Morgan City to Mobile could be wiped of the map (eg. Waveland, MS post-Katrina) and it would only be probably around $350B.
Was going to weedwack the back yard and mow it after,but when going out to the fence mailbox,it was so oppressive,I thought, maybe I'll vacuum and dust,then mop here in 76F indoors.

Feels like a sugar cane field in Okinawa...at 3pm.

"Hotsui'....






Quoting 98. Methurricanes:


The only way that is possible is if a Large Cat 3 or 4 took a path roughly similar to Sandy, NYC/NNJ is really the only area of the country with enough stuff to have a trillion dollar storm.
For example the Gulf Coast from Morgan City to Mobile could be wiped of the map (eg. Waveland, MS post-Katrina) and it would only be probably around $350B.

Wipe out the Houston ship channel petro-chemical complex and you will hit a trillion most likely
 
Weather in Clearwater FL has a tropical feel to it today, satalite not impressive but radar has a bit of spin to it....
Quoting 100. bygawdtexan:
Quoting 98. Methurricanes:


The only way that is possible is if a Large Cat 3 or 4 took a path roughly similar to Sandy, NYC/NNJ is really the only area of the country with enough stuff to have a trillion dollar storm.
For example the Gulf Coast from Morgan City to Mobile could be wiped of the map (eg. Waveland, MS post-Katrina) and it would only be probably around $350B.

Wipe out the Houston ship channel petro-chemical complex and you will hit a trillion most likely



And have the levees break protecting the refineries in Texas City and the whole city itself.
East Central Florida is getting some much needed rain today. Hopefully the areas that really need it get a good soaking.
It is the large major hurricanes that landfall with high surge impact,that is the deadly scenerio for vulnerable coastlines.

Ask Jim Cantore and his crew who barely made it to higher ground the morning of August 29th,2005.

Quoting 102. Tampa969mlb:

Weather in Clearwater FL has a tropical feel to it today, satalite not impressive but radar has a bit of spin to it....


Agreed, I live in Largo and it felt very tropical. Before sunrise the weather was particularly nasty
Quoting 98. Methurricanes:


The only way that is possible is if a Large Cat 3 or 4 took a path roughly similar to Sandy, NYC/NNJ is really the only area of the country with enough stuff to have a trillion dollar storm.
For example the Gulf Coast from Morgan City to Mobile could be wiped of the map (eg. Waveland, MS post-Katrina) and it would only be probably around $350B.


When people use damage or damage estimates the mean insurable losses and rebuilding costs. The numbers on that as of 2015 regarding homes at risk for hurricane damage are:

NY: $251 billion
Miami: $ 103.16 billion
Tampa: $79.14 billion
Virginia Beach: $87.17 billion and
New Orleans: $85.67
Link

That is just damage. In terms of insurable value which is a complete catastrophe where everything must be replaced. It is:
New York State Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $2.9 trillion
Florida Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $2.8 trillion
Texas Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $1.175 trillion
Massachusetts Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $849 billion
New Jersey Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $713 brillion
Link

88. PATRAP

Here to the West of you too...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S... AND COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY... RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 108 AND
112 DEGREES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO HEAT OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES.

In the words of my favorite local met...It is oppressive
I'm not sold on development in the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because how close it remains to the coastline and how short of a time it's over water. Chances would definitely increase if the system were farther offshore.
Quoting 106. Hurricanes101:



Agreed, I live in Largo and it felt very tropical. Before sunrise the weather was particularly nasty

It has the "smell" doesnt it. I noticed it today when I went Pokemon hunting at lunch.
Quoting 106. Hurricanes101:



Agreed, I live in Largo and it felt very tropical. Before sunrise the weather was particularly nasty


That's because we have a westerly flow setup today. That's why we're seeing thunderstorms in East Central Florida today. For the past month, we've had a well established easterly flow across most of Florida. That's why the East Coast of Florida was so dry and most of the storms were over the interior area of southwest Florida for most of July.
Quoting 109. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sold on development in the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because how close it remains to the coastline and how short of a time it's over water. Chances would definitely increase if the system were farther offshore.


Just like the last low there?
Hope that the moisture shifts further west this time around.
Ex 96L reminds me of what 1995 pre-Erin looked like when it was northeast of the Antilles as a struggling tropical wave. It eventually found more favorable conditions near the Bahamas and intensified into a cat 1 hurricane hitting parts of the Florida east coast. Any chance this wave could do something similar down the road?
Quoting 90. BahaHurican:

Oh, yeah....
You're not the only one eying that.....
Quoting 108. hurricanehanna:

88. PATRAP

Here to the West of you too...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S... AND COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY... RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 108 AND
112 DEGREES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO HEAT OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES.

In the words of my favotire local met...It is oppressive



Is too hot.

Indeed,...
It is not a matter of if,but when something forms in the gom or arrives via the south or east,it is going to have the tchp of a gumbo simmering.
Quoting 107. gator23:



When people use damage or damage estimates the mean insurable losses and rebuilding costs. The numbers on that as of 2015 regarding homes at risk for hurricane damage are:

NY: $251 billion
Miami: $ 103.16 billion
Tampa: $79.14 billion
Virginia Beach: $87.17 billion and
New Orleans: $85.67
Link

That is just damage. In terms of insurable value which is a complete catastrophe where everything must be replaced. It is:
New York State Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $2.9 trillion
Florida Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $2.8 trillion
Texas Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $1.175 trillion
Massachusetts Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $849 billion
New Jersey Coastal Counties Insurable Value: $713 brillion
Link


So that would mean it would have to be a monster storm hitting the Northeast, even then probably not for a couple decades of population buildup, because you are not going to wipe clean entire counties.
The current run of HWRF develops a major hurricane from Earl remnants in the Gulf of California.

Quoting 48. mikatnight:

The first hurricane to cause over $1 billion in damage was Hurricane Betsy in 1965.
I wonder, what year will have the 1st trillion dollar storm?


Theoretically, would have to be a LARGE Cat 5 hurricane that would cover a big area. Something like Andrew but bigger and slower moving, but further north into down town miami, south beach, Coconut Grove and Coral gables have many million dollar homes. Even then might only reach half a trillion. NY would be the best bet, but highly unlikely to get a Cat 5 that far north. Or the worst case scenario Texas cane, coming in around Galveston, hitting Houston then turning north towards Dallas. If it could hit 3 major cities in TX at once then maybe.
Quoting 109. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sold on development in the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because how close it remains to the coastline and how short of a time it's over water. Chances would definitely increase if the system were farther offshore.


true, but I think in this case, there may not be a ton of difference between just a tropical trof of low pressure and a minimial tropical storm
Quoting 117. Zivipotty:

The current run of HWRF develops a major hurricane from Earl remnants in the Gulf of California.




That hurricane, if it develops, is probably the tiniest one I've ever seen. Could we destroy that little peanut by throwing a grenade in it's center?
You make me nervous when you go to gumbo scale. Stay cool. It is only upper 80's and mostly cloudy here in central SC. A huge reprieve from upper 90's and blazing sun of last 3 weeks.

Quoting 115. Patrap:

It is not a matter of if,but when something forms in the gom or arrives via the south or east,it is going to have the tchp of a gumbo simmering.
Quoting 121. AldreteMichael:



That hurricane, if it develops, is probably the tiniest one I've ever seen. Could we destroy that little peanut by throwing a grenade in it's center?



A small but potent cat 1 Hurricane Cindy.

The first of 3 Hurricanes to strike Louisiana in 2005.

Quoting 116. Methurricanes:

So that would mean it would have to be a monster storm hitting the Northeast, even then probably not for a couple decades of population buildup, because you are not going to wipe clean entire counties.


This is just property which is what the damage estimates on hurricanes go off of. It does not factor in health insurance, civic buildings or government property (like schools or police cars etc), sewage treatment and the like. It also doesn't factor in tourism loss and crop loss. So while it may be a while before we see that number in terms of property damage, if a hurricane where to hit Miami and then hit Tampa you could see losses near that number in total. I also think that if a strong hurricane where to barrel up into NY/NJ and on to Massachusetts you could see similar.

For example, many people blame Hurricane Andrew for the ealry 90's recession in South America because of the areas economic ties to that region.
Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile

Mobile Radar 124 nm range


Quoting 121. AldreteMichael:



That hurricane, if it develops, is probably the tiniest one I've ever seen. Could we destroy that little peanut by throwing a grenade in it's center?
why its going to peds house he needs a flood
Quoting 121. AldreteMichael:



That hurricane, if it develops, is probably the tiniest one I've ever seen. Could we destroy that little peanut by throwing a grenade in it's center?


Manuel in 2013 was in that area and he was also very small, but only a Cat 1.
Link

Quoting 117. Zivipotty:

The current run of HWRF develops a major hurricane from Earl remnants in the Gulf of California.



Something that small might have a chance of running up the Gulf, but only if the steering currents were just right. The SSTs are right.
Quoting 108. hurricanehanna:

88. PATRAP

Here to the West of you too...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S... AND COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY... RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 108 AND
112 DEGREES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO HEAT OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES.

In the words of my favorite local met...It is oppressive

Swamp coolers don't work very well in that kind of humidity.
Quoting 127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

why its going to peds house he needs a flood


I tried to warn everybody that the Trollocane was heading for L.A. ;)
132. 7544
Hmm ex96 is looking good today uf it becomes a invest again will it a still be called 96l tis
12z Euro continues to show a weak tropical storm moving inland near the Florida Panhandle:

Afternoon Euro showing weak Tropical storm hovering around the panhandle of Florida and then moves inland and deepens a little more. Keep an eye on northern gulf next week..
Quoting 65. bwi:

Quick update from the northern hemisphere's icebox. After a warm winter and record or near-record lows for arctic sea ice extent, area, and volume this spring, the weather turned mediocre for melting in June and July -- peak solar input months -- with lots of small-ish low pressure areas and cloudiness.

However, sea ice measures are still flirting with record territory, despite the not-so-great melting weather, possibly due to abnormally warm seas surrounding the ice on pretty much all sides.

This week's weather looks very good for melting (bad for ice) with a warm sunny high pressure over the Alaskan and Canadian side, which could melt lots of vulnerable ice, and low pressure on the Russian side of the pole, which could cause winds to push ice out into the warm Atlantic where it would be susceptible to bottom melt.

That is rather a mighty low not seen as yet this melting season.
Might cause a huge drop in sea ice area by the processes you mention plus a compacting event against the Archipelago/Greenland coast with melt-out further west and centre.
Not your regular polynyas at the very NP by the way. A structure of floes and holes more like.
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z Euro continues to show a weak tropical storm moving inland near the Florida Panhandle:




Interesting. Certainly possible as SSTs are 30-32C in that part of the GOM. Perhaps the closeness to land helps aid the spin up with the slight curvature of the coast?
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z Euro continues to show a weak tropical storm moving inland near the Florida Panhandle:





I already covered that. Pay attention.
The Power of upwelling Lake Ontario at Rochester: 49F, Lake Erie at Buffalo: 76
Link
139. IDTH

Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z Euro continues to show a weak tropical storm moving inland near the Florida Panhandle:




That low forms inland over Alabama, so the setup is very dependent on the low getting out into the Gulf of Mexico and staying there long enough to take on tropical characteristics.
The models have been hinting that a low will form in this area over the past few days. I just don't know if it will get stuck over land or get out into the GOM.
Quoting 136. Envoirment:



Interesting. Certainly possible as SSTs are 30-32C in that part of the GOM. Perhaps the closeness to land helps aid the spin up with the slight curvature of the coast?


It could but it is also going to depend on shear levels and how far south the low will get into water as well
Quoting 141. WeatherkidJoe2323:



It could but it is also going to depend on shear levels and how far south the low will get into water as well

Subject to change but currently shear is fairly light in the GOM:
Quoting 134. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Afternoon Euro showing weak Tropical storm hovering around the panhandle of Florida and then moves inland and deepens a little more. Keep an eye on northern gulf next week..
Hmm, we'll see if there are any future developments on this.
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 11m
The tail end of a decaying front could lead to a brief tropical system in the NE GULF next week. Today's EURO:
Looks like all the Earl excitement is over. Now what? Nothing in the Atlantic,nothing in Caribbean, nothing in GOM.
UKMET is on board with it too.
Also need to take into account the dry air, especially over the Western Gulf of Mexico.

You can see the extended trough from the middle Gulf Coast all the way into the north Atlantic.
I have a question, do you know how they do ACE, which factors in wind speed and size. Why don't they do ICE (instantaneous cyclonic energy) to rate Hurricanes, because Hurricanes are more than their peak winds.
nhc gives the ex no love. 2pm discussion.
I smell a 2007 Humberto or 1997 Danny with those very warm water temps in the gulf.
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z Euro continues to show a weak tropical storm moving inland near the Florida Panhandle:


Quoting 147. Climate175:

UKMET is on board with it too.


Saw that, going to see if other models start trending towards that idea over the next few days also but if Euro is sniffing it out I start to pay close attention for sure.
Quoting 151. islander101010:

nhc gives ex 97 no love. they buried it with their 2pm discussion.

No one here expect anything from ex 97L.
There's definitely rotation with the Gulf moisture. Last night we had a heavy line of storms move into our area of NW Florida from the East!
158. Tcwx2
In this image I would think that heavy rainfall is already falling across the gulf coast. :

Then a weak tropical storm develops while heavy rainfall continues falling along the gulf coast, flooding becomes an issue. Winds probably begin to pick up a bit and tornadoes now become a threat with the rotation in the right-front quadrant.

Typically, a storm would begin to weaken at this point but pressures drop 3mb. This is one of 3 things happening: 1)Brown-Ocean effect due to the extreme rainfall that has already fallen and still is falling. 2)Jet Stream energy and/or combining areas of low pressure. and 3)Land-o-Cane (just kidding). A major Flooding Event is imminent over the entire Gulf Coast region.

Please keep in mind that none of this is written in stone and WILL change in the coming days. This is simply my analysis of the 12z ECMWF model run. I do think that a tropical storm would be worse because it would draw more moisture and last through nighttime hours where convection typically dies off, possible tornadoes, winds and a longer period of rainfall (days). The reason that I am so interested in this event is because more than likely I will be affected by it one way or the other, being in S Alabama.
The NWS likes the idea of a low forming along the Gulf Coast, but they keep it over land. But at least there's some consistency with a low forming in that area.
The question again is whether the low gets out into the GOM and how long will it stay there?
Quoting 137. Grothar:




I already covered that. Pay attention.

You saw nothing first.
Quoting 146. blobblobfan:
Looks like all the Earl excitement is over. Now what? Nothing in the Atlantic,nothing in Caribbean, nothing in GOM.


You should probably look at the GOM again, I think you missed something!
Quoting 160. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You saw nothing first.



:)
Quoting 154. Patrap:







Looking for a big fish?
Quoting 162. Grothar:




:)


👍

Saved. Source.

Good evening. Low level rotation of Earl (boy, how long were we looking for it earlier) is now exposed and can be watched traversing the Yucatan.

Couldn't find any catastrophic news from Belize, so far - thankfully! Josh Morgerman is now walking around the city and posting video clips of the remaining flooding and some damage from last night. Link.
I don't think much will come from this feature in the Gulf. The impulse to which the NHC was referring is to drop down in a few days.

Quoting 163. blobblobfan:


Looking for a big fish?


Its all in the bait....




169. IKE
Watching the models again for potential GOM development.
Quoting 151. islander101010:

nhc gives the ex no love. 2pm discussion.
Quoting 155. blobblobfan:


No one here expect anything from ex 97L.


don't both of you mean ex 96L because 97L is earl

anyway ex96L is looking a bit better today

I'm also keeping an eye on the wave SE of ex96L
Quoting 165. barbamz:


Saved.

Good evening. Low level rotation of Earl (boy, how long were we looking for it earlier) is now exposed and can be watched traversing the Yucatan.

Couldn't find any catastrophic news from Belize, so far - thankfully! Josh Morgerman is now walking around the city and posting video clips of the remaining flooding and some damage from last night. Link.


hmm seems to be pulling more N now

maybe get out into BOC early and stays over water a little longer
Just a reminder what 2 inches of sea level rise can do to change a storm, Gustav would have been a whole different story if sea levels were only 2 inches higher.
Link
@JimCantore

As we discussed on @AMHQ this morning... So if tehuanapecer becomes Javier it will have #Earl DNA


175. IDTH
Quoting 158. Tcwx2:

In this image I would think that heavy rainfall is already falling across the gulf coast. :

Then a weak tropical storm develops while heavy rainfall continues falling along the gulf coast, flooding becomes an issue. Winds probably begin to pick up a bit and tornadoes now become a threat with the rotation in the right-front quadrant.

Typically, a storm would begin to weaken at this point but pressures drop 3mb. This is one of 3 things happening: 1)Brown-Ocean effect due to the extreme rainfall that has already fallen and still is falling. 2)Jet Stream energy and/or combining areas of low pressure. and 3)Land-o-Cane (just kidding). A major Flooding Event is imminent over the entire Gulf Coast region.

Please keep in mind that none of this is written in stone and WILL change in the coming days. This is simply my analysis of the 12z ECMWF model run. I do think that a tropical storm would be worse because it would draw more moisture and last through nighttime hours where convection typically dies off, possible tornadoes, winds and a longer period of rainfall (days). The reason that I am so interested in this event is because more than likely I will be affected by it one way or the other, being in S Alabama.


This sounds like a very similar situation to tropical storm Alison and Tropical storm Erin from 2007.
176. Ed22
Quoting 165. barbamz:


Saved. Source.

Good evening. Low level rotation of Earl (boy, how long were we looking for it earlier) is now exposed and can be watched traversing the Yucatan.

Couldn't find any catastrophic news from Belize, so far - thankfully! Josh Morgerman is now walking around the city and posting video clips of the remaining flooding and some damage from last night. Link.
To me its moving west-northwest now.
Quoting 172. wunderkidcayman:

hmm seems to be pulling more N now
maybe get out into BOC early and stays over water a little longer


Maybe slightly but yet not much:

Although weakening rapidly over land Earl still has a pretty well defined and strong low level circulation.
Quoting 177. barbamz:

Maybe slightly but yet not much: ..

But sure the eye isn't far away from the coast of the BOC:


Latest saved radar pic. Source for updates and loops.

Edit: And yes, this is north of what models thought Earl would go:

Quoting 172. wunderkidcayman:



hmm seems to be pulling more N now

maybe get out into BOC early and stays over water a little longer



Is there a bit of a Fujiwhara effect going on between Earl, and the weak low off the coast of Mexico and Guatemala? The winds look like they're feeding each other back and forth to me. It's right where they think Earls remnants might cross over, but there's something there now that looks like they're feeding each other to me.
183. csmda
Quoting 157. 69Viking:

There's definitely rotation with the Gulf moisture. Last night we had a heavy line of storms move into our area of NW Florida from the East!


At about 4 am the thunder was so loud it woke my husband and I up at the same time, right before the dog bolted off the bed and ran like a pansy. Then we laughed for a a minute and fell back asleep.
Hi Guys! Remember I am a newbie here but how much effect does Earl have on the new system predicted off the coast of Alabama/ Florida? What if it gets into the BOC earlier than expected. Will it be more likely to feed into the new system or will it possibly prevent it from having a chance to develop? I am deployed to Louisiana right now and it is HOT...Humid....HOT...humid...breathing maple syrup has to be easier!
Echo tops

Quoting 180. mitthbevnuruodo:




Is there a bit of a Fujiwhara effect going on between Earl, and the weak low off the coast of Mexico and Guatemala? The winds look like they're feeding each other back and forth to me. It's right where they think Earls remnants might cross over, but there's something there now that looks like they're feeding each other to me.

Both disturbances are drawing on both the Atlantic and Pacific for some moisture, and the Pacific system will likely be energized as the midlevel energy of Earl comes across, if it does. But not a Fujiwhara Effect which pretty much depends on the minimum friction offered by the ocean, and Earl is clearly getting lots of land-caused friction right now.

It is strange though that we haven't seen an unambiguous Fujiwhara Effect for ages now. One might expect an increased appearance of the phenomenon given the higher SSTs, especially in the favored areas of the western Pacific.
Quoting 183. csmda:


At about 4 am the thunder was so loud it woke my husband and I up at the same time, right before the dog bolted off the bed and ran like a pansy. Then we laughed for a a minute and fell back asleep.


I woke up about 5 due to the thunder and never really got back to sleep. Been getting some pretty good rains and now with the low trying to push into the GOM we may get a lot more in the next few days!
Quoting 154. Patrap:






getting dark uptown I can see some nasty clouds heading this way Pat
Quoting 187. 69Viking:



I woke up about 5 due to the thunder and never really got back to sleep. Been getting some pretty good rains and now with the low trying to push into the GOM we may get a lot more in the next few days!


If this low continues to push offshore, we may just have to give it a really good look. Looks like the convection is still firing in the Gulf.
011  
WUUS54 KLIX 042015  
SVRLIX  
LAC103-042045-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0135.160804T2015Z-160804T2045Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
315 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT  
 
* AT 312 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SLIDELL...  
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.  
 
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SLIDELL...PEARL RIVER...ABITA SPRINGS...LACOMBE...PEARLINGTON AND  
SLIDELL AIRPORT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3043 8968 3041 8968 3036 8966 3034 8963  
3031 8963 3029 8965 3025 8962 3015 8965  
3017 8968 3016 8971 3016 8973 3017 8974  
3015 8975 3022 8988 3023 9000 3029 9002  
3033 9008 3059 9001  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 010DEG 12KT 3030 8980  
 
HAIL...<.75IN  
WIND...<50MPH  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page

Its overcast,93.7F & 103 f heat index.

Boomers seen over the lake,east,and south.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
333 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
 
* AT 333 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE  
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
NEW ORLEANS...CHALMETTE...HARVEY...MARRERO...TIMBERLAN E...  
BELLE CHASSE...METAIRIE...JEFFERSON...GRETNA...ARABI...T ERRYTOWN...  
MERAUX...WOODMERE AND ESTELLE.  
 
LAT...LON 2985 9012 3002 9014 3003 8993 2988 8992  
2988 8993 2989 8994 2990 8996 2990 8999  
2989 8999 2990 9000 2989 9001 2986 9002  
 
 
 
!  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page

Speaking of the Fujiwhara Effect, take a look at this image of Omais in the western Pacific, currently on a heading toward Japan:

Yes appearances can be deceiving, but...
Here in downtown NOLA (One Shell Square) just watched a tornado touch down and get sucked back up around the French quarter area....I'm hoping my boss videoed it.
938  
WGUS54 KLIX 042035  
FFWLIX  
LAC103-042330-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0034.160804T2035Z-160804T2330Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
335 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
 
* AT 335 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF  
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN  
SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
SLIDELL...COVINGTON...PEARL RIVER...ABITA SPRINGS...MADISONVILLE...  
LACOMBE...PEARLINGTON AND SLIDELL AIRPORT.  
 
LAT...LON 3047 8972 3031 8963 3029 8965 3028 8963  
3025 8963 3024 8961 3023 8962 3018 8957  
3019 8955 3015 8953 3018 8980 3022 8988  
3023 9000 3029 9002 3034 9011 3036 9018  
3035 9023 3056 9024  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page

Quoting 179. barbamz:


But sure the eye isn't far away from the coast of the BOC:


Latest saved radar pic. Source for updates and loops.

Edit: And yes, this is north of what models thought Earl would go:







It looks to me like none of those model runs actually go through where the center of Earl appears to be now. Looks like he went further N than expected
Quoting 195. BayFog:

Speaking of the Fujiwhara Effect, take a look at this image of Omais in the western Pacific, currently on a heading toward Japan:

Yes appearances can be deceiving, but...
Convection Monster.
Very dynamic atmosphere here with a feeder band feel to it.
I'm in the blind as the slidell radar at the NWS there failed after this frame.

Quoting 202. Patrap:

I'm in the blind as the slidell radar at the NWS there failed after this frame.




Looks like a bunch of hail on wwl radar (Slidell)...
Quoting 200. Tornado6042008X:

Convection Monster.

No kidding, Omais isn't particularly well organized right now (has two competing centers), but the -90*C tops (white) are cold even for western Pacific standards. This is perhaps a preview of what is to come next week across the basin with lots of upwards motion set to overspread the area.

16th 90+ degree day in Rochester, NY, The average is 9 for the whole summer. Tomorrow looks to be 90+ and maybe 1 or two more next week. The Lake got down to 44F this morning from a south wind causing upwelling.
Quoting 205. 1900hurricane:


No kidding, Omais isn't particularly well organized right now (has two competing centers), but the -90*C tops (white) are cold even for western Pacific standards. This is perhaps a preview of what is to come next week across the basin with lots of upwards motion set to overspread the area.


Could be very interesting for sure. I wonder what height those cloud tops are reaching? 70,000 feet?
Quoting 193. hydrus:



If you look a topo map of the region the center of Earl is traversing, it appears that the storm is following the contour of the relatively low mountains to its southwest. This range arcs westward to the north as it gives way to the lowlands of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, which itself is an excellent channel for northeast winds moving from the Gulf to the Pacific. I don't know what the rest of the dynamics will dictate as far as storm motion, but I guess we'll find out soon.
From the Mobile radar


Lots of rain in Gulfport and Biloxi. Don't see it drying off any time soon with that rain maker possibly brewing in the Gom
clipped from this afternoons NWS Tallahassee Florida forecast discussion........................................ ..........................HYDROLOGY...

High rain rates could cause isolated nuisance flooding over the next
couple of days. However, we are starting to get more concerned that
next week`s pattern could set us up for a more widespread flood
threat. Rivers are quite low, but could fill up as we work our way
through next week. A bigger concern is the potential for flash
flooding. Some of the CAMs are showing very high QPF. We could
easily see widespread multi-day rainfall totals in the 4 to 6 inch
range east of where the surface low sets up with locally higher
amounts several inches higher than those numbers. It seems quite
reasonable that with prolonged PW above already climatologically
high norms in a pattern as unsettled as the one that will be
developing that flooding with be a primary threat. We will remain
focused on this and begin trying to narrow down potential event
totals and the most likely areas for flooding as we work through the
weekend.

&&



I think Earl makes an emergence into the BOC after all.
flooding in new Orleans



waiting for someone speed by and splash em might see some action
Quoting 215. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

flooding in new Orleans






Tornado touched down briefly not too far from there. I'm trying to get the video of it right now.
Quoting 216. cat6band:



Tornado touched down briefly not too far from there. I'm trying to get the video of it right now.
29000 out of power downtown..
Quoting 209. Tornado6042008X:

Could be very interesting for sure. I wonder what height those cloud tops are reaching? 70,000 feet?

The 12Z sounding out of Guam has the tropopause at about 95 mb. Considering a 100 mb height of ~55000 feet from the same sounding, the probably slightly higher tropopause over the system itself (given the 95 mb temp of -87.7*C), and overshoots, I'd say tops could be extending in excess of 60,000 feet.
Terrible weather here in NOLA! 2 buildings have collapsed! Lightning is unreal! Pouring rains!
Quoting 216. cat6band:



Tornado touched down briefly not too far from there. I'm trying to get the video of it right now.
I was looking but nothing I can find maybe u will have better luck
https://scontent-dft4-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13932 806_1745461475711809_1402284555627962718_n.jpg?oh= 17f190335a3f467093c36bddb1c0f3f9&oe=581DD7B0
http://www.wwltv.com/weather/funnel-cloud-forms-ove r-new-orleans-as-heavy-storms-hit/287678460
Link to page with funnel cloud in New Orleans and the two buildings that collapsed.
Link

Live coverage
Link
One of the collapsed buildings had previously collapsed at an earlier date and people didn't live in it. From the interview with a person in the neighborhood, the building was a nuisance building.
Quoting 224. Sfloridacat5:

One of the collapsed buildings had previously collapsed at an earlier date and people didn't live in it. From the interview with a person in the neighborhood, the building was a nuisance building.
Good news, that image with downtown is going to be a classic.
26,000 power outages in Orleans Parish currently, via Entergy.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
447 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT  
 
* AT 447 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF POINTE A LA HACHE...OR 14  
MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN  
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND  
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2973 8984 2972 8977 2964 8970 2965 8989  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 009DEG 16KT 2969 8981  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
24/RR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page

Entergy updated as 10,000 customers restored, with 15,000 still without.
Quoting 227. washingtonian115:


Spreading more across the Bahamas.

NWS Slidell radar restored.

Lightning is terrible uptown in NOLA. Its really coming down outside. Lots of lights out.
Quoting 212. lurkersince2008:

Lots of rain in Gulfport and Biloxi. Don't see it drying off any time soon with that rain maker possibly brewing in the Gom
That was an amazing thunderstorm. First day of school, I appreciated the cooler temp waiting in car line to pick up my daughter.
Quoting 232. Climate175:

Spreading more across the Bahamas.


Not sure if I have ever seen a TCHP map showing that deep of heat content in the Bahamas and off the east coast of Florida. That is boiling.
Quoting 227. washingtonian115:




Wash...just curious. What would cause that cool water patch that we see in the Gulf? Would that be the Gulf Stream?
Funnel cloud over the French Quarter.


Quoting 236. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Not sure if I have ever seen a TCHP map showing that deep of heat content in the Bahamas and off the east coast of Florida. That is boiling.
Was a real storm here as it was loud,wild,and wet.

I can only imagine the havoc this is causing for Northern Guam.

greatest tropical waves over africa and look what we got. a spin with no convection and a tropical wave moving through the windwards. nothing out of the ordinary
SSTs been really heating up over the last week. Blobations even more likely heading toward evening D-Max.

247. Tcwx2
NWS Mobile long term discussion. Really? Not much to say?

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Not much to say about this
portion of the forecast. The upper low becomes centered over/near the
fa by Tueday, bringing well above seasonal chances of rain and a
tighter than seasonal temps range over the fa (highs at or below
seasonal, lows at or above seasonal)
Quoting 242. hydrus:




Those warm temps go down deep, tons of fuel and not good it's close to the coast.


Earl well organized even over land....T wave chain is active..

Quoting 248. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Those warm temps go down deep, tons of fuel not good it's close to the coasts.
Warmer than normal at great depths.. This pattern increases the threat to the Bahamas and Florida..



Quoting 170. wunderkidcayman:



don't both of you mean ex 96L because 97L is earl

anyway ex96L is looking a bit better today

I'm also keeping an eye on the wave SE of ex96L


Huh? There is an ULL over DR/Haiti/SE Bahamas shearing the bejesus outta ex96L. All of the deep convection has gone away. And the wave at 10N 30W is meh at best. At least the wave getting ready to roll off is further north, maybe it won' get absorbed by the ITCZ.

Hope light hearted perspective ok with some dealing with serious issues. Do we have chance of fuji effect?

255. Tcwx2
GFS in a week.

V.S. EURO in a week. Who will win?
Quoting 254. centex:

Hope light hearted perspective ok with some dealing with serious issues. Do we have chance of fuji effect?




Too far away, circulations at 2 different levels. Highly unlikely
Quoting 252. hydrus:

Warmer than normal at great depths.. This pattern increases the threat to the Bahamas and Florida..






Yes that is right.. Ex 96L does still look good although no mention from nhc at this time, it is heading in that general direction of the area of warmer then average temps, still needs to be watched despite no model support and a suppressed phase of the MJO for the Atlantic coming through.
Quoting 257. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Yes that is right.. Ex 96L does still look good although no mention from nhc at this time, it is heading in that general direction of the area of warmer then average temps, still needs to be watched despite no model support and a suppressed phase of the MJO for the Atlantic coming through.


Old loop. Ex 96L was shredded by the shear lol

260. MahFL
Western eyewall of Earl beginning to reform ?

Quoting 255. Tcwx2:

GFS in a week.

V.S. EURO in a week. Who will win?



nothing too see here
Quoting 179. barbamz:


But sure the eye isn't far away from the coast of the BOC:


Latest saved radar pic. Source for updates and loops.

Edit: And yes, this is north of what models thought Earl would go:




Definitely sneaking a bit farther north than the forecast track. We're getting a pretty good squall right now with decent rain and winds in the 35 to 40 kt range. Wouldn't surprise me if the center of what's left of Earl passes over me in the next few hours. Might miss a little to my west.
Quoting 261. thetwilightzone:



nothing too see here


NE GOM needs to be watched very closely
Quoting 259. Hurricanes101:



Old loop. Ex 96L was shredded by the shear lol




Wow lol not the best looking now but still should be watched down the road things happen quickly.
for the next one too 2 weeks or longer things look really dead out there most of the fun will be in the W PAC
Quoting 263. Hurricanes101:



NE GOM needs to be watched very closely


ok
Quoting 257. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Yes that is right.. Ex 96L does still look good although no mention from nhc at this time, it is heading in that general direction of the area of warmer then average temps, still needs to be watched despite no model support and a suppressed phase of the MJO for the Atlantic coming through.
September and October will likely have major hurricanes. The east coast trough could be a life saver if it materializes...Gulf may have some development if convection maintains itself.



Hello All..

WPC latest update



12z Euro is calling for for 12 inches of rain for parts of coastal LA/FL Panhandle as well as inland areas for AL..the WPC map might be underdone if the Euro is correct..

Have a great evening..
Quoting 271. Patrap:


Convection still firing around the center..Rough weather underneath that to be sure...

275. Tcwx2
Look at the EURO near the AL/FL border.
Quoting 261. thetwilightzone:



nothing too see here
276. Ed22
Quoting 210. BayFog:


If you look a topo map of the region the center of Earl is traversing, it appears that the storm is following the contour of the relatively low mountains to its southwest. This range arcs westward to the north as it gives way to the lowlands of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, which itself is an excellent channel for northeast winds moving from the Gulf to the Pacific. I don't know what the rest of the dynamics will dictate as far as storm motion, but I guess we'll find out soon.
Earl is edging closer toward the Bay of Campeche could be their by early morning.
Earl's not dead yet...
Quoting 270. Patrap:



Quoting 273. hydrus:

Convection still firing around the center..Rough weather underneath that to be sure...




After his initial impact with Belize, Earl's eye has been over relatively flat land. The way he's been maintaining, perhaps there is also some Brown Ocean effect going on here.

Earl is moving NW for the last few hours
Quoting 279. VibrantPlanet:



After his initial impact with Belize, Earl's eye has been over relatively flat land. The way he's been maintaining, perhaps there is also some Brown Ocean effect going on here.




I admit it is impressive how the structure has held together so well and may actually be improving over the last couple hours even while on land.
Quoting 274. 62901IL:

Well this is interesting




why?
Southeasterly flow around the western periphery of the lower to mid level high pressure center over the Lower Mississippi River Valley possibly influencing Earl's movement to the northwest.

Quoting 255. Tcwx2:

GFS in a week.

V.S. EURO in a week. Who will win?


Both, because neither of them show nothing
Quoting 268. hydrus:

September and October will likely have major hurricanes. The east coast trough could be a life saver if it materializes...Gulf may have some development if convection maintains itself.






The trough is a big question this year, we know it has been steering storms out the past few years with water temps the way they are it would probably be good if that continues. The Gulf is the main spot to watch over the next 7-10 days.
New Orleans International Airport picks up 1.80 inches in one hour this late afternoon. Peak wnd measured 40 mph.
Quoting 283. WeatherkidJoe2323:



I admit it is impressive how the structure has held together so well and may actually be improving over the last couple hours even while on land.

yup, also the low deepened while over land. It'll be interesting to see how the models adjust for the newfound intensity and track.
Quoting 255. Tcwx2:

GFS in a week.

V.S. EURO in a week. Who will win?

Big difference for FL, as the GFS shows a trough over the SE US, while ECMWF shows the strong high building back in. I am rooting for the GFS.
Lake Huron is as Warm as it has been in the last 5 years.
Link
All the other lakes are darn close.
Here in Rochester, after the warmest July since 2006 (6th warmest ever) every single high and low is suppose to be above the 81/61 average for the next week, so all the lakes may become warm
Quoting 286. juracanpr1:


Both, because neither of them show nothing


Euro shows an area of low pressure on the coast of Alabama. Forecasts for areas from New Orleans to Tampa are calling for a lot of rainfall over the next 7-10 days. It is certainly not nothing even if a named storm does not form. The rain where I live today was very tropical in nature
It stands to Reason that If Earl had some more time over water then I definitely believe it would have had the propensity and potential to become a vicious category 5 monster, God forbid…Belize lucked out in some ways thankfully. Count your blessings always, every disappointment can indeed be a Blessing in disguise.

God Bless!
Quoting 293. NatureIsle:

It stands to Reason that If Earl had some more time over water then I definitely believe it would have had the propensity and potential to become a vicious category 5 monster, God forbid…Belize lucked out in some ways thankfully. Count your blessings always, every disappointment can indeed be a Blessing in disguise.

God Bless!



Earl barely made it to a Category 1 storm, and personally based on observations from Belize, I'm not convinced it ever exceeded strong Tropical Storm status, but that's beside the point.

I've never quite understood the people that post all the "ifs" in their comments. Earl definitely needed more than "some" more time. Earl did what Earl did because that's how the conditions played out. We could play "ifs" all day. If there was an ice age tomorrow it might snow here in Mexico. If I had been born in a different time, place, and a lot more handsome, I could possibly be the alternate universe's version of Brad Pitt. But none of that happened, so what's the point?
The line that blasted thru here was like a TS feeder band..and as I posted before it hit, we got to 92F and a 104F heat index before the storm arrived.




Sorry, wonky WU Android software led to a double post. Deleted
A trampoline that got blown into the power lines today.



Quoting 285. Drakoen:

Southeasterly flow around the western periphery of the lower to mid level high pressure center over the Lower Mississippi River Valley possibly influencing Earl's movement to the northwest.



Where do these charts originate? The wind barbs on the satellite image contradict what's depicted. Upper and midlevel flow barbs are all easterly and northeasterly which corresponds to the direction of the blowoff from t-storms in the region.
Quoting 295. Patrap:

The line that blasted thru here was like a TS feeder band..and as I posted before it hit, we got to 92F and a 104F heat index before the storm arrived.




Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49
@EricBlake12 @philklotzbach Practically the entire Gulf of Mexico and SE coast has highest Skin temp on record.


Edit: Note this is for July, but the way SSTs are increasing we likely are spiking skin temps even higher on top of a record-breaking july.
Quoting 227. washingtonian115:



It seems Earl didnt do much to weaken the TCHP values along its path
Quoting 300. VibrantPlanet:


Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49
@EricBlake12 @philklotzbach Practically the entire Gulf of Mexico and SE coast has highest Skin temp on record.



Indeed it is as all that latent energy is a ticking bomb out there.

Quoting 301. MrTornadochase:


It seems Earl didnt do much to weaken the TCHP values along its path


His track took him on the edge of it. When he was over near Jamaica he was still moving at a pretty good clip. By the time he slowed down he was on the edge of the TCHP.
Quoting 300. VibrantPlanet:


Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49
@EricBlake12 @philklotzbach Practically the entire Gulf of Mexico and SE coast has highest Skin temp on record.


You can also see the cold pool south of Greenland that is helping sustain the large dominant high pressure over the Atlantic as well as what is likely unusually strong upwelling off the African coast, likely resulting from the more robust high pressure.
Quoting 302. Patrap:



Indeed it is as all that latent energy is a ticking bomb out there.


I wonder how hot the LA swamps are right now, must be mid-90s.
GOM Tchp

Looks like Earl isn't getting into The Bay of Campeche
Evening everyone ..... finally got done with things and can see what is going on with Earl and the rest of the ATL.
Sea Height Anomaly

Quoting 306. Patrap:

Southeast La. Buoys
Surprised that they are largely cooler than the open gulf, maybe less sunshine, or cooler water filtering in through the Mississippi.

So Earl loses to the mountains of Guatemala.... and no rejuvenation for 96L....
From 8 p.m. NHC
Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize,
Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning.
Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas.
These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Quoting 312. Methurricanes:

Surprised that they are largely cooler than the open gulf, maybe less sunshine, or cooler water filtering in through the Mississippi.


Cypress shade and other factor in play.

The deep gom canyon and loop Eddy's are where the fuel is for any Cape Verde roller coming in thru S Florida or thru the Yucatán channel.

Philip Klotzbach,bear in mind that a warm western atlantic does not necessarily correlate with and active atlantic hurricane season. Just keeping it real.

Are we waiting for the MJO to show up?
Quoting 317. help4u:

Philip Klotzbach,bear in mind that a warm western atlantic does not necessarily correlate with and active atlantic hurricane season. Just keeping it real.
However, we have very warm waters and generally weak shear across the basin, that is a recipe for storms eventually.
Temps probably don't correlate very well because water temps are always suitable for some sort of development, but I would think there would be some correlation between major Hurricanes and Water Temps.

night all
Quoting 313. BahaHurican:


So Earl loses to the mountains of Guatemala.... and no rejuvenation for 96L....


Take a peek at the Conagua Sabancuy radar, which not only shows precipitation but is overlain on a topographic map, and then come back and explain how the "mountains of Guatemala" vanquished Earl.
Trusting that Belize is still counting its Blessings- this could have definitely been a situation that would have turned out much worse. Also, thank God that the direct death toll from the storm appears to be very low at present...Still many lessons to be learnt at the national level I am sure.
This evening into tonight- Seeing the active satellite Loops of Earl gradually evolving with each passing frame is simply astounding and Stunning. If there was a prize for the most impressive system of the year- thus far- hands down it goes to Earl- which even after Landfall continues to regenerate and re-fire convection around a solid tropical cyclonic core and massive cyclonic moisture gyre coupled with possible ‘Brown Ocean Effect’ over Central America/Mexico…Absolutely Inimitable -Simply EPIC EARL…IN EVERY WHICH WAY -PRETTY MUCH SUMS IT UP!
Blessings!
Quoting 321. LouisPasteur:



Take a peek at the Conagua Sabancuy radar, which not only shows precipitation but is overlain on a topographic map, and then come back and explain how the "mountains of Guatemala" vanquished Earl.
He is from the Bahama's, he may have a slightly different definition of a mountain that us.
Also keeping a close eye on the disturbance to the East of Ex 96L which looks like its on the verge of re-firing some more deep convection. It will be a matter of mere hours to see whether the 'Lesser Antilles Rule or Effect' comes into play in a significant way for this persistent tropical disturbance albeit not very organised at present.

God Bless!
Quoting 313. BahaHurican:


So Earl loses to the mountains of Guatemala.... and no rejuvenation for 96L....

The wave entering the central Caribbean could have been our next system if it were moving about two days slower. This is the one the GFS/GEFS showed developing for a while.

But it's moving too fast compared to those forecasts, so it'll run right into this...

Quoting 321. LouisPasteur:



Take a peek at the Conagua Sabancuy radar, which not only shows precipitation but is overlain on a topographic map, and then come back and explain how the "mountains of Guatemala" vanquished Earl.
Why? Not interested in explaining anything... take it or leave it....
Quoting 322. NatureIsle:

Trusting that Belize is still counting its Blessings- this could have definitely been a situation that would have turned out much worse. Also, thank God that the direct death toll from the storm appears to be very low at present...Still many lessons to be learnt at the national level I am sure.
This evening into tonight- Seeing the active satellite Loops of Earl gradually evolving with each passing frame is simply astounding and Stunning. If there was a prize for the most impressive system of the year- thus far- hands down it goes to Earl- which even after Landfall continues to regenerate and re-fire convection around a solid tropical cyclonic core and massive cyclonic moisture gyre coupled with possible ‘Brown Ocean Effect’ over Central America/Mexico…Absolutely Inimitable -Simply EPIC EARL…IN EVERY WHICH WAY -PRETTY MUCH SUMS IT UP!
Blessings!


Could have definitely been a situation that would have turned out much worse. What the heck does that mean? Is it definitive or potential? Could, would, should. And jamming every meteorological term you have ever heard into a single sentence and then smothering it in a thick layer of "blessings' doesn't mean that it makes sense. Belize got what it got because that's what happened. Not because it might have possibly potentially definitely could, would, should have happened. Are they supposed to count their blessings or disappointments? Apparently they are one and the same.
Quoting 323. Methurricanes:

He is from the Bahamas, he may have a slightly different definition of a mountain that us.
Like 206 ft is a Mount..... LOL....
Not quite....

Like I'm sure you've seen how the 'mountains' of the Bahamas just rip those hurricanes to shreds before they can hit Florida...

:-)
Earlier Photo of Earl from Space.
Hey guys i am back thank you to all who sat up whith me last night . On my property 2 trees got uprooted and lots of broken branches . Some houses in the village lost roofs . Hurricane Richard passed very close to the same area this storm passed but this one did more damage . I think the reason is that whith this one we were on the north side but whith richard the south side
Quoting 330. belizeit:

Hey guys i am back thank you to all who sat up whith me last night . On my property 2 trees got uprooted and lots of broken branches . Some houses in the village lost roofs . Hurricane Richard passed very close to the same area this storm passed but this one did more damage . I think the reason is that whith this one we were on the north side but whith richard the south side
Glad your safe. :)
Quoting 322. NatureIsle:

Trusting that Belize is still counting its Blessings- this could have definitely been a situation that would have turned out much worse. Also, thank God that the direct death toll from the storm appears to be very low at present...Still many lessons to be learnt at the national level I am sure.
This evening into tonight- Seeing the active satellite Loops of Earl gradually evolving with each passing frame is simply astounding and Stunning. If there was a prize for the most impressive system of the year- thus far- hands down it goes to Earl- which even after Landfall continues to regenerate and re-fire convection around a solid tropical cyclonic core and massive cyclonic moisture gyre coupled with possible ‘Brown Ocean Effect’ over Central America/Mexico…Absolutely Inimitable -Simply EPIC EARL…IN EVERY WHICH WAY -PRETTY MUCH SUMS IT UP!
Blessings!

Agreed. Belieze should count themselves that Earl wasn't over water for another 24 or so hours or it probably would've been a major at landfall.
Quoting 325. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The wave entering the central Caribbean could have been our next system if it were moving about two days slower. This is the one the GFS/GEFS showed developing for a while.

But it's moving too fast compared to those forecasts, so it'll run right into this...


That is the one that kept a reasonable pace across the ATL, though. Has it sped up in the last day or two?
Quoting 327. LouisPasteur:



Could have definitely been a situation that would have turned out much worse. What the heck does that mean? Is it definitive or potential? Could, would, should. And jamming every meteorological term you have ever heard into a single sentence and then smothering it in a thick layer of "blessings' doesn't mean that it makes sense. Belize got what it got because that's what happened. Not because it might have possibly potentially definitely could, would, should have happened. Are they supposed to count their blessings or disappointments? Apparently they are one and the same.
I am counting my blessing even though i lost a lot to this storm i am happy it took that dip to the south and flattened my corn field instead of taking that more northerly track and flattning the corn fields further north .The nrthern part of the country had had crop lost to drought for 2 years already and had earl hit them i think that would have been the last nail in many a farmers coffin
Quoting 330. belizeit:

Hey guys i am back thank you to all who sat up whith me last night . On my property 2 trees got uprooted and lots of broken branches . Some houses in the village lost roofs . Hurricane Richard passed very close to the same area this storm passed but this one did more damage . I think the reason is that whith this one we were on the north side but whith richard the south side
Glad you are okay and that your property wasn't too badly damaged.....
Thanks for posting all night. We appreciated it.
Quoting 285. Drakoen:





Anyone else see a Dr. Seuss character in this? lol

Breeze is picking up nicely here in St. Croix. I hope this wave brings some rain to top off the cisterns. The San Juan radar is down, but that seems to be a yearly event during hurricane season. Always works just fine during the dry spells.
Quoting 333. BahaHurican:

That is the one that kept a reasonable pace across the ATL, though. Has it sped up in the last day or two?

Whoops you're right, that's ex-96L.

Either way, the wave the models were developing is right on its tail. Back when they showed a cyclone, they predicted the wave would enter the central Caribbean around Wednesday. Certainly not over the weekend.
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoops you're right, that's ex-96L.

Either way, the wave the models were developing is right on its tail. Back when they showed a cyclone, they predicted the wave would enter the central Caribbean around Wednesday. Certainly not over the weekend.
So it has been speeding along.... seems like as long as the high remains strong, the waves are just going to dash through the basin..... consider later when we start to see some fronts coming through.... starting to look like that will be the window of opportunity for several Twaves to develop.....
Raining here now... nice for bed time....
NWS Slidell mets confirm a EF-0 Tornado touchdown that traveled a half mile thru the city.


NWS confirms tornado touched down in New Orleans
WWLTV.com , WWL 8:46 PM. CDT August 04, 2016


Dry air is going away. Almost ripe.
345. beell
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

Somewhat surprisingly, Earl has maintained tropical storm intensity this evening. Observations from Ciudad del Carmen indicated a wind gust to 46 kt at 2348 UTC during heavy squalls, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Since the forecast track takes the center along the Bay of Campeche coast or just offshore during the next 24 hours, this could allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength on Friday. Based on the new official intensity forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. In 36 hours or so, the center of Earl should move inland for good over south-central Mexico, and the system is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours.

Earl jogged to the west-northwest over the past several hours and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/9 kt. A large mid-level ridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should induce a continued west-northwestward to westward motion through the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the most recent multi-model consensus.

The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 344. unknowncomic:

Dry air is going away. Almost ripe.


No. This season is a bust. 5-2-0 final.

...even though we were supposed to be 4-1-0 final just a few days ago.
Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:

-
No. This season is a bust. 5-2-0 final. Good one!
Quoting 323. Methurricanes:

He is from the Bahama's, he may have a slightly different definition of a mountain that us.

"Us"? Lol speak for yourself im fro. Florida. Our highest elevation is 120 ft.
Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No. This season is a bust. 5-2-0 final.

...even though we were supposed to be 4-1-0 final just a few days ago.

lol, so true! This season is far from over and even excluding Alex, we are well above average in terms of Atlantic activity right now. Not sure if the season will finish well above average, but I think a slightly above average season is still possible.
Quoting 350. unknowncomic:



Shear is clearly not a problem this year. Shear is near normal to slightly below normal in the MDR, Caribbean and Gulf. Earl proves that the Caribbean will not be a dead zone this year, and I really wouldn't be surprised if a storm taps into that NW Caribbean hot tub sometime in September or October.
Quoting 348. gator23:


"Us"? Lol speak for yourself im fro. Florida. Our highest elevation is 120 ft.
And that's probably Universal Studios..
Quoting 352. win1gamegiantsplease:


Quoting 336. STX00841:



Anyone else see a Dr. Seuss character in this? lol

Breeze is picking up nicely here in St. Croix. I hope this wave brings some rain to top off the cisterns. The San Juan radar is down, but that seems to be a yearly event during hurricane season. Always works just fine during the dry spells.
Agree, we always missed the main events, I think is so unstable that cannot stand a little breeze...
Quoting 320. Chicklit:


night all
Nothing ominous...
not ever day a storm stays a TS the hole time why its on land i gust .EARL went over the right part of MX the hole time it was in land too stay a TS

will have too see how march more N earl can go it looks like its this about ready too move out in too the water

Quoting 336. STX00841:



Anyone else see a Dr. Seuss character in this? lol

Breeze is picking up nicely here in St. Croix. I hope this wave brings some rain to top off the cisterns. The San Juan radar is down, but that seems to be a yearly event during hurricane season. Always works just fine during the dry spells.


That is the best pic I've seen in a long time. Southerly flow over the peninsula.. Rain for the E-Coast Maybe
Sorry Taz for Questioning your name change. You and I have been on here a long time, just in defense mode I wanted you to know that
Quoting 358. ProgressivePulse:

Sorry Taz for Questioning your name change. You and I have been on here a long time, just in defense mode I wanted you to know that



thats ok i love my new named change i think its the best named i ever picked
Quoting 359. thetwilightzone:




thats ok i love my new named change i think its the best named i ever picked


I like it too TWZ, great name.
Looks like a disturbance is forming off of Earl East side over NW Caribbean just NE of Honduras on satellite it's really blowing up here
Quoting 338. Climate175:




Take a look:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-052115-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS THAT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD MATERIALIZE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. STAY TUNED
FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
931 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Not much to say about this
portion of the forecast. The upper low becomes centered over/near the
fa by Tueday, bringing well above seasonal chances of rain and a
tighter than seasonal temps range over the fa (highs at or below
seasonal, lows at or above seasonal).

I assume they're referring to what you're showing in the diagram you posted, right?

That is one big "A" upper low in the W-Atl

Quoting 297. Patrap:

A trampoline that got blown into the power lines today.







Wow! Where is that?
Still Curious though.

Did Earl produce a single "Land based recorded" hurricane wind?
Earl remained a TS over land and it should remain a TS before making another hit in Mexico soon. Remarkable!
In other news, TS Omais forms in the Western Pacific. It's a monsoon depression but it has enough tropical characteristics to be classified as a tropical storm.

Read more about this in our blog here
Quoting 362. pureet1948:



Take a look:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075 -076-078- 079-052115-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS THAT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD MATERIALIZE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. STAY TUNED
FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
931 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Not much to say about this
portion of the forecast. The upper low becomes centered over/near the
fa by Tueday, bringing well above seasonal chances of rain and a
tighter than seasonal temps range over the fa (highs at or below
seasonal, lows at or above seasonal).

Note: That's just the UKMET. Is it all right to wait until the GFS starts assigning a probability to start worrying?


My son got some good pictures of the funnel cloud over the 7th ward NOLA around 3:30 pm CDT. How do I post them on this blog? they're on my iPhone. Please excuse my lack of tech knowledge. Even after all these years, I still don't know how to post on this blog but I want to share these photos of the funnel cloud that touched down in New Orleans today.
369. Siker
Earlier somebody posted text output from the UKMet that actually showed central pressure rather than "WEAK" or "STRONG". Can someone link me to where to find that?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over eastern Mexico.

A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible as it remains
nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 368. Thunderground:

My son got some good pictures of the funnel cloud over the 7th ward NOLA around 3:30 pm CDT. How do I post them on this blog? they're on my iPhone. Please excuse my lack of tech knowledge. Even after all these years, I still don't know how to post on this blog but I want to share these photos of the funnel cloud that touched down in New Orleans today.

Do you know how to upload to WunderPhotos? Or upload them to a photo site and link them back here to the blog.
The 0z UKMET makes the 0/20 area a 969mb hurricane as it's approaching a FL/AL landfall.

And now that I've thrown the blog into full-fledged panic mode, good night. ;)
Quoting 369. Siker:

Earlier somebody posted text output from the UKMet that actually showed central pressure rather than "WEAK" or "STRONG". Can someone link me to where to find that?

Link

Scroll down to near the bottom of the page.
376. Siker
Thanks!
Really? See his post (343) below!

Quoting 364. pureet1948:




Wow! Where is that?
Good Morning. It's very quiet on the outside. We had some showers yesterday and more showers are in the forecast for late Friday into Saturday. Making preparations for a Street Fair on August 27th. I hope we have lots of sunshine on that day. Anyway all of you are invited and come with your best behavior (joking).
Have a great day everyone.
We are our way!
Wait, where are we going?
Thanks.

Quoting 378. wadadlian:

Good Morning. It's very quiet on the outside. We had some showers yesterday and more showers are in the forecast for late Friday into Saturday. Making preparations for a Street Fair on August 27th. I hope we have lots of sunshine on that day. Anyway all of you are invited and come with your best behavior (joking).
Have a great day everyone.
Nice catch with that one. Checked it not to long ago, and that was not there!
Surprised that there is no mention of ex96L.

Quoting 370. Sleepingwithsirens:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over eastern Mexico.

A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible as it remains
nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

Quoting 374. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z UKMET makes the 0/20 area a 969mb hurricane as it's approaching a FL/AL landfall.

And now that I've thrown the blog into full-fledged panic mode, good night. ;)
could someone link that.
See post 375?

Quoting 381. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

could someone link that.
Deni may be on our way... yes, in August. (this is according to the ECMWF):

And CMC on the same storm:

GFS also says it is there but frontal (maybe not, maybe frontal):

And models are showing more support and the ECMWF changed it's idea from it being 1006 at peak to being 1002 at peak. SST's are 22ºC. Wind shear is low-medium (it's pretty far south), and it's probably not gonna be frontal. Cari 2.0 may be coming our way. And yes, NAVGEM does show it too, as a pretty beautiful to look tropical cyclone. JMA does not show it beacuse it isn't really global and can't show the South Atlantic part, as they do not run that part.
Quoting 372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 72 : 28.3N 84.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2016 72 28.3N 84.4W 1008 25
1200UTC 08.08.2016 84 28.3N 84.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 09.08.2016 96 28.3N 84.4W 1000 36
1200UTC 09.08.2016 108 28.3N 84.9W 993 50
0000UTC 10.08.2016 120 28.4N 85.7W 985 59
1200UTC 10.08.2016 132 28.7N 86.3W 978 68
0000UTC 11.08.2016 144 29.5N 86.5W 969 72


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 72 : 28.3N 84.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2016 28.3N 84.4W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2016 28.3N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2016 28.3N 84.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2016 28.3N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2016 28.4N 85.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2016 28.7N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2016 29.5N 86.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
Quoting 384. KuCommando:
Well, so much for making a nice neat table.....
Quoting 384. KuCommando:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
[...]

This one, I guess:

Source.

04.08.2016: The towns of San Ignacio and Santa Elena in Belize witnessed heavy rains and severe flooding on Thursday, after the passage of Hurricane Earl overnight.
Allianz Quarterly Profit Falls 46% on Disasters, Unit Sale
Bloomberg, OliverSuess, August 5, 2016 — 7:05 AM CEST, Updated on August 5, 2016 — 8:03 AM CEST
Allianz SE said second-quarter profit almost halved, missing estimates, as Europe's biggest insurer faced higher claims from natural disasters and charges for the expected sale of its South Korea unit. ...
"Operating profit was burdened by European floods and storms, wildfires in Canada, hailstorms in the United States, as well as lower investment income," Chief Financial Officer Dieter Wemmer said in the statement. ...
389. MahFL
Quoting 330. belizeit:

Hey guys i am back thank you to all who sat up whith me last night . On my property 2 trees got uprooted and lots of broken branches . Some houses in the village lost roofs . Hurricane Richard passed very close to the same area this storm passed but this one did more damage . I think the reason is that whith this one we were on the north side but whith richard the south side


Can you post some pics ?
390. beell
Not uncommon to see a surface trough develop between a break in the sub-tropical ridge over or near Florida. Its modeled persistence is unusual.

Not a big fan of development with this. It appears to remain fairly weak and partially over land-butt who nose?
Watching Earl, could he 'fracture' and spawn a Earl, jr?
392. beell
Quoting 391. PuppyToes:

Watching Earl, could he 'fracture' and spawn a Earl, jr?


Since you and I seem to be the only two awake, I'll say "no". Earl should stay embedded in the larger scale circulation extending into the eastern Pacific.

Quoting 348. gator23:


"Us"? Lol speak for yourself im fro. Florida. Our highest elevation is 120 ft.
Well, 345. But, still...
looks like a big lull in the tropics for a few weeks at least.... we need a break after having 5 storms already this early
GENESIS011, AL, L, , , , , 73, 2016, DB, O, 2016080500, 9999999999, , 011, , , , GENESIS, , AL732016



396. beell
Quoting 395. nrtiwlnvragn:

GENESIS011, AL, L, , , , , 73, 2016, DB, O, 2016080500, 9999999999, , 011, , , , GENESIS, , AL732016






I think either end of the Big Bend, FL track would work as an origin!
Quoting 383. NunoLava1998:

Deni may be on our way... yes, in August. (this is according to the ECMWF):

And CMC on the same storm:

GFS also says it is there but frontal (maybe not, maybe frontal):

And models are showing more support and the ECMWF changed it's idea from it being 1006 at peak to being 1002 at peak. SST's are 22ºC. Wind shear is low-medium (it's pretty far south), and it's probably not gonna be frontal. Cari 2.0 may be coming our way. And yes, NAVGEM does show it too, as a pretty beautiful to look tropical cyclone. JMA does not show it beacuse it isn't really global and can't show the South Atlantic part, as they do not run that part.


Yoy got a link or something for this??? Cant seem to find info on it anywhere ... the GFS (onlu model i can get to load on my phone at the moment) seems to show frontal if im looking at the right thing. Anomalies are fascinating ... medicanes especially
Quoting 294. LouisPasteur:



Earl barely made it to a Category 1 storm, and personally based on observations from Belize, I'm not convinced it ever exceeded strong Tropical Storm status, but that's beside the point.

I've never quite understood the people that post all the "ifs" in their comments. Earl definitely needed more than "some" more time. Earl did what Earl did because that's how the conditions played out. We could play "ifs" all day. If there was an ice age tomorrow it might snow here in Mexico. If I had been born in a different time, place, and a lot more handsome, I could possibly be the alternate universe's version of Brad Pitt. But none of that happened, so what's the point?
I see nothing wrong with considering different possible outcomes, so long as the scenarios have reasonable probability not too close to zero. This is essentially what the GFS ensemble does in forecasting. While the comment you refer to is after the fact, It common for systems to slow down in the Western Caribbean, so I see nothing wrong with considering the alternative outcomes in hindsight. Your counter-example of "an ice age tomorrow" is so improbable (barring a major meteor hit or mega-volcanic eruption) it has probability of zero, making the outcome unworthy of consideration, reductio ad absurdum.
Quoting 396. beell:



I think either end of the Big Bend, FL track would work as an origin!


The end closer to Florida......


Quoting 392. beell:



Since you and I seem to be the only two awake, I'll say "no". Earl should stay embedded in the larger scale circulation extending into the eastern Pacific.



I would agree ... highly doubtful that would happen. Seems like Earl storms are always querky tho .... look up Earl from 98 ... wasent even fully tropical but classified a cat 2
Good Morning..

Quick post this morning as I head out of town to see the Carolina Panthers :)

00z UKMET
Precip maps only go out to 72 hours









Also of Interest, the Navgem..yeah I know but still its interest and something to talk about or complain about..whichever is your preference..





You all have a great day..check in tomorrow..



Quoting 342. Gearsts:



W-Pac is going to be wild with that MJO pulse! I hope we get plenty of fish storms to track out of that.
I'll get nervous when Grothar issues a blob alert off Honduras.

Quoting 392. beell:



Since you and I seem to be the only two awake, I'll say "no". Earl should stay embedded in the larger scale circulation extending into the eastern Pacific.


Good Morning
this are may need too be watch has it looks like it has some good spin too it and its heading N in too the gulf this are could be come 98L be for that area in the gulf under line in yellow this Am

yep low down there really has a tight spin it seems i would if any thing is falling down there



and too add even no wind shear is 30kt has this moves N it will be is 5 too 10kt

of shear




if you live a long the gulf cost i would really keep a eye on this has this one looks like a sneeker wave
Looks like Earl is gaining convection again although mildly. If it continues to take the more northern route, it may hit a more densely populated area of Mexico with a whole lot of rain.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tmpRCByc0JE/Ttaz3k9g-sI /AAAAAAAAAjw/i6FhUPQhBdY/s1600/Mexico_Population_D ensity.jpg
Quoting 403. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'll get nervous when Grothar issues a blob alert off Honduras.




I'll give you a blob-watch and that's it :) Sometimes those little pieces of energy that are left behind can spin up into something.
Quoting 406. Sfloridacat5:




Weak possible TS but a definite rain maker, flooding will be an issue the next 5 days.
This is the area to watch over the next couple days




Quoting 409. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Weak possible TS but a definite rain maker, flooding will be an issue the next 5 days.


We're going to see a low form in this area. It all depends on how long the low can stay over water. Shear is low and water temps are in the upper 80s.
Euro has a max of 44" across Western FL. That some rain folks!!


Folks Sunday thru next Wednesday has the potential to be down right intense rainfall wise across West Central FL as the Euro is now extremely bullish on atleast a Tropical Depression maybe even a Tropical Storm. System is expected to form near Cedar Key and basically sit for days per the Euro and just unleash heavy rains south of this low from the Nature Coast down to Tampa. This looks much more intense than the 2015 August event.

Some folks will likely see 20" to 30" of rain over a 3 to 4 day period from Pinellas up to Levy County.

Quoting 405. thetwilightzone:

this are may need too be watch has it looks like it has some good spin too it and its heading N in too the gulf this are could be come 98L be for that area in the gulf under line in yellow this Am

yep low down there really has a tight spin it seems i would if any thing is falling down there ... if you live a long the gulf cost i would really keep a eye on this has this one looks like a sneeker wave


I'll eat my shoes if this ever develops. ;D
Look at all the DEEP CONVECTION!
even though wind wise earl was barely a hurricane rain wise he was very impressive. heavy deluges from costa rica all the way up the tampico . i'd qualify that as a impressive system.
If you look closely, you can already see a circulation trying to get going in the N.E. GOM.
Link
Quoting 408. Grothar:



I'll give you a blob-watch and that's it :) Sometimes those little pieces of energy that are left behind can spin up into something.


Good morning, weathergeeks.

I was just thinking the same thing. May spawn its own low. Leeward twave with a bit of circ may catch up with it, or maybe not.

drought monitor is late to lunch. yesterday there was plenty rain here in e cen florida. quite a quick turn around.
Looks like it could push a south swell into the Carolinas points south of OBX. Flattest summer ever....I know I say that every year. The boy has been getting some good water time on the Costco foamikazee, however. Now dad needs some.

Quoting 409. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Weak possible TS but a definite rain maker, flooding will be an issue the next 5 days.
i would keep a eye on this has with that area going too be setting in vary hot water in the gulf this could really spin up quick and with it moving slow if not all at all we could see a mod too weak cat 1 hurricane out of this i wounder what model runs show out of this

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over the southern Bay of Campeche.

1. A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible while it remains
nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 419. islander101010:

drought monitor is late to lunch. yesterday there was plenty rain here in e cen florida. quite a quick turn around.


Yeah nearly 3" in Downtown Orlando.
Quoting 419. islander101010:

drought monitor is late to lunch. yesterday there was plenty rain here in e cen florida. quite a quick turn around.


Not much rain at my house though
Could get dicey. The Low moving off the AL coast could pull some of that Honduras energy and moisture northward. I think we will see some very interesting model runs develop today. STS Euro rainfall potential map (Post 413) is crazy (and concerning).

Quoting 405. thetwilightzone:

this are may need too be watch has it looks like it has some good spin too it and its heading N in too the gulf this are could be come 98L be for that area in the gulf under line in yellow this Am

yep low down there really has a tight spin it seems i would if any thing is falling down there



and too add even no wind shear is 30kt has this moves N it will be is 5 too 10kt

of shear




if you live a long the gulf cost i would really keep a eye on this has this one looks like a sneeker wave
this event could be a TS fay like event
Quoting 413. StormTrackerScott:

Euro has a max of 44" across Western FL. That some rain folks!!


That is crazy! Do you have a EURO map for that time period for north GA and the Carolina's? Maybe see some lift of rain up the Apps?
Quoting 419. islander101010:

drought monitor is late to lunch. yesterday there was plenty rain here in e cen florida. quite a quick turn around.

It never reached the coast in the Daytona area.
Quoting 405. thetwilightzone:

this are may need too be watch has it looks like it has some good spin too it and its heading N in too the gulf this are could be come 98L be for that area in the gulf under line in yellow this Am

yep low down there really has a tight spin it seems i would if any thing is falling down there



and too add even no wind shear is 30kt has this moves N it will be is 5 too 10kt

of shear




if you live a long the gulf cost i would really keep a eye on this has this one looks like a sneeker wave
wonder if it will have a FUGIWACHO affect
Saw some forecasts showing 15-20" of rain expected in the Big Bend area over the next week.
Quoting 426. Walshy:



That is crazy! Do you have a EURO map for that time period for north GA and the Carolina's? Maybe see some lift of rain up the Apps?


It does head north from the Big Bend of FL up toward the Appalachians.
431. beell
Quoting 403. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'll get nervous when Grothar issues a blob alert off Honduras.





Won't argue that point!

Some good upper divergence in place-but at the expense of strong northwesterly shear this morning.


(click for larger image)
Quoting 426. Walshy:



That is crazy! Do you have a EURO map for that time period for north GA and the Carolina's? Maybe see some lift of rain up the Apps?


See post 413
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Mon-Fri...models show an upper low developing over the northeast
Gulf and the Florida Panhandle during the first half of next week
with an associated surface boundary stalling near the Florida Big
bend area. Cooler temperatures aloft and increasing low level
moisture (PWATS back to around 2 inches) should bring higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms over South Florida Mon and
Tue, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected.

Link
That could cool surface water temps in that area of the Gulf. Let's hope some of these extreme totals do not come to fruition, especially if this moves northward into the mountains. Seems like extreme rain events are becoming the new norm.

Quoting 429. Sfloridacat5:

Saw some forecasts showing 15-20" of rain expected in the Big Bend area over the next week.

I'm hoping all that rain stays up in the Big Bend. I picked up over 16" in my PWS for July about 15 miles from Fort Myers. We don't need the rain here.
July precipitation estimate
Quoting 429. Sfloridacat5:

Saw some forecasts showing 15-20" of rain expected in the Big Bend area over the next week.



Yeah you don't see the Euro throw totals out like that loosely. To see that type of signal on the Euro just 2 days out is just insane. I don't think I've ever seen a max that high on the Euro across FL before. This is likely a result of near record SST's around FL. Gulf temps are around 90 degrees off the west coast of FL.
437. beell
Quoting 399. nrtiwlnvragn:



The end closer to Florida......





Both ends are Florida and equally likely!
heavy rains yesterday. took a quick walk down to sykes creek and its bad. real bad. our river has turned orange. the water around merritt island use to be a great resource almost a wonder of the world. thats all gone now. terrible algae bloom.
I mentioned the other day how a lot of weaker tropical systems landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida. We see them spin up quite often.
It's just interesting how that area rarely sees the stronger systems (hurricanes). They usually landfall down in South Florida or further to the west in the Panhandle.
Theme song for Earl, Ivette, Omais, and what could become a messy event in Florida.

This song was also used for the following storms.
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Joaquin

Quoting 437. beell:



Both ends are Florida and equally likely!


:)
nice mess of rain coming into the Suwannee River basin! we need it; it's been too dry. was out in yesterday's mess sampling the fish populations of Suwannee Sound and the surrounding Cedar Keys. it was hit and miss all day, dodging storms and timing lightning and thunder to see just how close it was getting. didn't get many fish.. stayed wet all day, but someone has to do it. the weather folks don't pay too much attention to our area because the population density is so low, but we get some nasty weather, too.
Good Morning

A friendly squirrel greets us (a couple of hours ago) at BiCentennial Park in Lantana, Florida.
Regardless of TC development or not (leaning towards it being possible) Florida definitely looks like it's in for a huge rain event this upcoming week from Tampa northwards. Land interaction is going to be the big barrier for development here, IMO.
Quoting 421. thetwilightzone:

i would keep a eye on this has with that area going too be setting in vary hot water in the gulf this could really spin up quick and with it moving slow if not all at all we could see a mod too weak cat 1 hurricane out of this i wounder what model runs show out of this

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over the southern Bay of Campeche.

1. A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible while it remains
nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Systems like this have spun up and intensified quickly in the past, like Danny 1998 and Humberto 2007. With the record-warm SSTs and low shear we could see the same thing happen. We'll have to monitor this to see if it becomes Fiona sometime next week.
Quoting 415. 62901IL:

Look at all the DEEP CONVECTION!

Yes look.???????
Washington Post article (14 hours ago)

The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought



Hurricanes, large and small, have eluded U.S. shores for record lengths of time. As population and wealth along parts of the U.S. coast have exploded since the last stormy period, experts dread the potential damage and harm once the drought ends.

Three historically unprecedented droughts in landfalling U.S. hurricanes are presently active.

A major hurricane hasn’t hit the U.S. Gulf or East Coast in more than a decade. A major hurricane is one containing maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph and classified as Category 3 or higher on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson wind scale. The streak has reached 3,937 days, longer than any previous drought by nearly two years.



Twenty-seven major hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic Ocean basin since the last one, Wilma, struck Florida in 2005. The odds of this are 1 in 2,300, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher from Colorado State University.

Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since 2005’s Wilma, which is shocking considering it averages about seven hurricane landfalls per decade. The current drought in the Sunshine State, nearing 11 years, is almost twice as long as the previous longest drought of six years (from 1979-1985).



Sixty-seven hurricanes have tracked through the Atlantic since Florida’s last hurricane impact. The odds of this are about 1 in 550, Klotzbach said.

Even the entire Gulf of Mexico, and its sprawling coast from Florida to Texas, have been hurricane-free for almost three full years, the longest period since record-keeping began 165 years ago (in 1851). The last hurricane to traverse the Gulf waters was Ingrid, which made landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm, in September 2013.

Rest of the article
Quoting 448. blobblobfan:

Yes look.???????


This thing has to be producing a helluva lot of heavy rainfall. Glad it's not hitting land...yet.
Quoting 417. Sfloridacat5:

If you look closely, you can already see a circulation trying to get going in the N.E. GOM.
Link
Quoting 357. ProgressivePulse:



That is the best pic I've seen in a long time. Southerly flow over the peninsula.. Rain for the E-Coast Maybe
And for NE Fl too:)...keepin my fingers crossed

I mentioned the other day how a lot of weaker tropical systems landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida. We see them spin up quite often.
It's just interesting how that area rarely sees the stronger systems (hurricanes). (Sfloridacat5)

just not correct. Cedar Key has had more than its share of hurricanes. the big ones seem to come in every 50 years but we get the little ones, too. a big one briefly ended the US occupation of the Cedar Keys at the end of the Seminole Wars (184?). the 1896 hurricane wiped most of Cedar Key out. the town was moved to another island after that one.. then there was the hurricane left over from the big one down south that drowned so many folks down there. it cut back in from the Gulf and came inland again over the Cedar Keys. hurricane Easy in the 50s laid down timber all over north Florida. and Elena sat off the Cedar Keys in the 80s, I believe, and did a lot of damage with all the flooding. only the Gainesville Sun seems to remember that we get those storms fairly frequently..
Good morning

It's 75, heavy rain mist at the moment, with bands of heavy rain and thunder off in the distance, rolling through the island at the moment.

This wave today is the precursor to the one coming in tomorrow with the following warning:

"* Flash Flood Watch for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

* From late tonight through early Sunday morning.

* A tropical wave now moving across the region will continue to
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the islands today. This will lead to minor Urban and Small
Stream flooding in some areas. However a stronger tropical wave
will quickly follow and move across the islands late tonight
into Sunday. This wave will increase moisture convergence and
also the potential for additional showers and thunderstorm
development across the region starting tonight and continuing
through Saturday. The persistent east to southeast wind flow
along with localized terrain effects will aid in enhancing
convective development thus leading to areas of locally heavy
rainfall. The most active period so far appears to be early
Saturday morning and continuing through Saturday night.

* The potential of flooding rains and storm thunderstorm is high
for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday.
Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches with locally higher
amounts are possible with this strong tropical wave. Localized
flash flooding... landslides and Rockfall in areas of steep
terrain will remain possible due to saturated soil and the
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall."

You can see in the webcams how dreary it is today: Link

Hoping all is well with everyone!

-L

Quoting 446. HurricaneFan:


Systems like this have spun up and intensified quickly in the past, like Danny 1998 and Humberto 2007. With the record-warm SSTs and low shear we could see the same thing happen. We'll have to monitor this to see if it becomes Fiona sometime next week.
Master Grothar everyone here are watching that blob.
Good Morning Folks boy what a day we had in NOLA on yesterday. Lets see whats in store for us today as we have showers off the coast of Louisiana this morning.
Quoting 442. marsHen:
nice mess of rain coming into the Suwannee River basin! we need it; it's been too dry. was out in yesterday's mess sampling the fish populations of Suwannee Sound and the surrounding Cedar Keys. it was hit and miss all day, dodging storms and timing lightning and thunder to see just how close it was getting. didn't get many fish.. stayed wet all day, but someone has to do it. the weather folks don't pay too much attention to our area because the population density is so low, but we get some nasty weather, too.


That's a beautiful area, been going there 3 years straight for the Suwannee Springfest Music Festival.
From the HP2016 History page (see my blog), showing the 23 hurricanes that have made landfall w/in 67 miles of Lake Worth, Florida in the last 100 years - listed by month. Included are the (3) US mainland Cat 5's (outside 67 m range).



Pretty obvious what month is the most likely for a major.
And October seems to beg for predictions of a Cat 1 before the 6th, or after the 24th.
Of course, that's pure nonsense.
Naturally.

EDIT - Date for "Lake O" landfall should be the 16th, not the 17th. Stupid Wikipedia.
Time for me to beat feet.
No worries though.
Dex is keeping an eye on things.


Dexter atop his perch on the playground set in BiCentennial Park this morning.
Have a great day all...
Quoting 443. Sfloridacat5:




The old ecmwf runs had it forming near the west panhandle, which I wasn't buying. The best region of upper divergence and persistent deep convection supportive of pressure falls will be across the Big Bend and the Nature Coast area. There is already more cyclonic flow in that region to be begin with.

It's worth noting that a weak low developed in this region with a practically identical pattern last August, which also led to extremely heavy rainfall from the Tampa Bay area northward.

This new low position seems more on track with what I would expect.
Quoting 405. thetwilightzone:

this are may need too be watch has it looks like it has some good spin too it and its heading N in too the gulf this are could be come 98L be for that area in the gulf under line in yellow this Am

yep low down there really has a tight spin it seems i would if any thing is falling down there



and too add even no wind shear is 30kt has this moves N it will be is 5 too 10kt

of shear




if you live a long the gulf cost i would really keep a eye on this has this one looks like a sneeker wave

Grammar please! UGH!
Quoting 435. Sfloridacat5:

I'm hoping all that rain stays up in the Big Bend. I picked up over 16" in my PWS for July about 15 miles from Fort Myers. We don't need the rain here.
July precipitation estimate

I hope so too...And you can see that the east coast really needs it more than the west coast.
HMMM really???
I'm in Levy County and it's as if we always need rain. So we'll take some. But maybe not 30 inches
Quoting 453. LindyVirginIslander:

Good morning

It's 75, heavy rain mist at the moment, with bands of heavy rain and thunder off in the distance, rolling through the island at the moment.

This wave today is the precursor to the one coming in tomorrow with the following warning:

"* Flash Flood Watch for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

* From late tonight through early Sunday morning.

* A tropical wave now moving across the region will continue to
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the islands today. This will lead to minor Urban and Small
Stream flooding in some areas. However a stronger tropical wave
will quickly follow and move across the islands late tonight
into Sunday. This wave will increase moisture convergence and
also the potential for additional showers and thunderstorm
development across the region starting tonight and continuing
through Saturday. The persistent east to southeast wind flow
along with localized terrain effects will aid in enhancing
convective development thus leading to areas of locally heavy
rainfall. The most active period so far appears to be early
Saturday morning and continuing through Saturday night.

* The potential of flooding rains and storm thunderstorm is high
for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday.
Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches with locally higher
amounts are possible with this strong tropical wave. Localized
flash flooding... landslides and Rockfall in areas of steep
terrain will remain possible due to saturated soil and the
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall."

You can see in the webcams how dreary it is today: Link

Hoping all is well with everyone!

-L




Haven't got much here from the first wave :/ it's annoying. Hopefully the second one is really wetter. But I see the VI are located in a more favorable location than St Barths. Barbuda kills or weakens the convections to our east..And they rebuild only after they passed us..... Really irritating.
Morning all.... first chance to look in for the day .... beautiful wx here, 84 degrees and sunny, with a few clouds and a fresh ESE breeze ...
Supposed to be a chance of rain this afternoon, increasing in the overnight hours, but right now you wouldn't know it ...

Quoting 462. bigwes6844:

HMMM really???



Optical illusion...
Quoting 436. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah you don't see the Euro throw totals out like that loosely. To see that type of signal on the Euro just 2 days out is just insane. I don't think I've ever seen a max that high on the Euro across FL before. This is likely a result of near record SST's around FL. Gulf temps are around 90 degrees off the west coast of FL.


Yeah, it only takes a bit of weak low pressure when you've got 2.2-2.5 PW's and SST's in the upper 80's to lower 90's available to create a major rain event on the gulf coast.

If you remember, a near identical pattern like this occurred in August last year. We also had this pattern dominate throughout much of July and August last year.
Quoting 403. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'll get nervous when Grothar issues a blob alert off Honduras.


Hmph. I see Earl went N of the forecast, so no real interaction w/ Nicaragua's mountains ...
Isn't the blobbish item off Honduras connected to the "wider gyre" that includes Earl and the wx off the western MX coast?
469. Tcwx2
So you are telling me that it's not coming toward me in S Alabama? ;( haha.
Quoting 459. Jedkins01:



The old ecmwf runs had it forming near the west panhandle, which I wasn't buying. The best region of upper divergence and persistent deep convection supportive of pressure falls will be across the Big Bend and the Nature Coast area. There is already more cyclonic flow in that region to be begin with.

It's worth noting that a weak low developed in this region with a practically identical pattern last August, which also led to extremely heavy rainfall from the Tampa Bay area northward.

This new low position seems more on track with what I would expect.
Quoting 463. JrWeathermanFL:

I'm in Levy County and it's as if we always need rain. So we'll take some. But maybe not 30 inches


Well areas that average a lot of rain and have sandy soil and a lot of water hungry plants need a lot of rain, it's just how it is. Though yes, rainfall over 10 inches is a bit too much. In my opinion though, too much rain is still better than too little, though I suppose that isn't true for those in low lying areas that get ruined homes from flooding.
Quoting 469. Tcwx2:

So you are telling me that it's not coming toward me in S Alabama? ;( haha.


Models do show it gradually drifting west, as high pressure in the Atlantic tries to build back west, but it will take a while to do so.
#460 hey man that's Taz you're quoting! Didn't you know?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 435. Sfloridacat5:

I'm hoping all that rain stays up in the Big Bend. I picked up over 16" in my PWS for July about 15 miles from Fort Myers. We don't need the rain here.
July precipitation estimate

Maybe there'll be a crossover effect and the east coast will get some for a change ....

Smelt Sands is a poster park for sneaker wave safety on the Oregon coast.
Quoting 457. mikatnight:

From the HP2016 History page (see my blog), showing the 23 hurricanes that have made landfall w/in 67 miles of Lake Worth, Florida in the last 100 years - listed by month. Included are the (3) US mainland Cat 5's (outside 67 m range).



Pretty obvious what month is the most likely for a major.
And October seems to beg for predictions of a Cat 1 before the 6th, or after the 24th.
Of course, that's pure nonsense.
Naturally.

EDIT - Date for "Lake O" landfall should be the 16th, not the 17th. Stupid Wikipedia.
Mik, the pics are not showing up .... :o(
Quoting 479. BahaHurican:

Mik, the pics are not showing up .... :o(


Darn. You're not the 1st to bring that to my attention either.
Some folks must be seeing them - I'm getting pluses.
I'm assuming it's just the ones I upload through Google Photos.
I mean, like all the sneaker wave stuff is showing up, right?
Man, if anybody's got any suggestions, I'm all ears.
482. MahFL
Quoting 405. thetwilightzone:

this are may need too be watch has it looks like it has some good spin too it and its heading N in too the gulf this are could be come 98L be for that area in the gulf under line in yellow this Am




No, there is 30kts of shear there :



Not every blob is going to become a cyclone.
483. MahFL
Quoting 415. 62901IL:

Look at all the DEEP CONVECTION!



Might help folks if you indicate which storm that is.
ICYMI, I recently updated my NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to include July 2016 data. The 2015-16 Super NINO is officially over and cold ENSO neutral conditions currently prevail over the tropical Pacific, with the latest June-July ranking coming within 6 ranks of the La Nina threshold (lowest 30th percentile). Aside from the various adjustments and advantages I mentioned in the text file with my index over Klaus Wolter's original MEI, monthly NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis usually updates more regularly and faster than IOCADS. A revised index to Klaus Wolter & Michael Timlin's Extended MEI (MEI.ext) is currently in construction and will include all of the adjustments applied to NCEI/NCAR R1 & a few others that account for spurious pre-1950 PC projection and time-varying relative uncertainties/variance in the SLP & SST reconstructions.
Link



Utilization of a higher resolution dataset, principal components infused with more data (it's worth noting that 3 of the 4 strongest ENSO events in the modern era (1997-98, 2010-11, & 2015-16) have occurred within the last 25 years, Wolter's PCs only use CODAS data from 1950-1993 to construct the PCs for the original MEI), inflation of variables that explain more variance in the MEI, & the exclusion of spatial clustering (since NCEI/NCAR R1 is globally complete) & inclusion of precipitation are the most likely sources of the discrepancies that exist between these indices. The 1950-MJ 2016 correlation between the original (adjusted (i.e. w/ 30-yr sliding base periods)) MEI & NCEI/NCAR MEI is .9606, wrt Wolter's MEI this r value is higher than almost all ENSO indices (ENS ONI, BEST, CTI, JMA SST Index, SOI20CR, Jones SOI, HADISST NINO 4, 3.4, 3, 1-2) except for Wolter's Extended MEI (MEI.ext)...

Color-coded NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis MEI rankings (1948-Present)
Amazingly, the 2010-11 NINA holds the record the lowest MEI value for 10 of the 12 bi-monthly periods. The SLP PC of this event was insane, wrt it actually edged out the positive anomaly observed in 1982-83 with ~ -3.03 sigma in June 2010, which is nearly 1 sigma lower than any other NINA event on record... Wow!
Maroon (ranks 1-3) = Super El Nino
Red (ranks 4-7) = Strong El Nino
Orange (ranks 8-14) = Moderate El Nino
Yellow-orange (ranks 15-21) = Weak El Nino
Normal text (ranks 22-47)= Neutral ENSO
Very light blue (ranks 48-54) = Weak La Nina
Light blue (ranks 55-61) = Moderate La Nina
Blue (ranks 62-66) = Strong La Nina
Dark blue (ranks 67-69) = Super La Nina