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Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting serialteg:


where are you from, taz? if its ok to ask


CA
3002. 7544
hi all earls moving west again ?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I dont see a NW jog anywhere


Quoting weathermancer:


Am I reading that right, 925mb ?



yup 925mb right overe FL
Quoting RMM34667:
Anyone have one of those graphics that shows the cone and how it shifts over time?
Someone posted one of those graphics for Katrina the other day and the shift changes in the cone for her was crazy...Never seen one change as much as that one. Not sure whree they got it or where to find it.
Quoting Grecojdw:


I am soooo amazed at all the waves coming off of Africa with spin already. I don't think I've ever seen a situation where EVERY WAVE HAS SPIN. It's truly amazing to me:0


this is a nugget :)
3007. jeebsa
Quoting naitsabes:


Happy Labor Day, sits for 2 days
(As my jaw hits the floor)is that 97L or the new one near the C.V.
3008. liljade
Quoting BLee2333:
Link

This shows some sthly movement of earl
I saw that too!
3009. trey33
Quoting weathermancer:


Am I reading that right, 925mb ?


Who? 97L? (scrolled down and saw the rest sorry)
if 97L can have a good D Max tonight we could a TD by 11am
Quoting serialteg:




you can look on radar and satellite to confirm that, that is wrong
Power has been turned off over the entire country of Antigua.

SOURCE: Interview with utility company employee on Observer Radio in Antigua.
Watching some of the models does not look good for ecfl as far as 97L goes. Plan on installing a new 1 million btu boiler on the roof of the resort I work at on the 6th and 7th. *crossing fingers*
Blog slowed down... alot
Id say MIMIC is off then

look at the radar out of the Virgin Islands

the center is below 18N at 0000UTC

on MIMIC its above 18N at 0000UTC
Quoting naitsabes:


Happy Labor Day, sits for 2 days


This is the 00z run.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Id say MIMIC is off then

look at the radar out of the Virgin Islands

the center is below 18N at 0000UTC

on MIMIC its above 18N


can i get a link to that radar?
OK..so I took a very close look at the water vapor loop. I'm wondering how strong Earl needs to get to move nw underneath THAT. 2/3? Less?
Yeah...this isn't pretty:

Ya'll I know this is totally off topic but I just got to see the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my 50 years of earth. Double rainbow about 7:00 CST. Totally amazing. Can someone tell me what causes that? I tried to take pics but mine are lame. A friend of mine posted hers on facebook so I asked her if I could perhaps post them on here they are truly unique and wonderful!
3021. 7544
ok fla for labor day u asked for thr link here it is Link
Earl is still tracking WEST and intensifying.

This storm is now in the "dangerous " bracket and has great potential given the current atmospheric conditions prevailing.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


can i get a link to that radar?


Link
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Id say MIMIC is off then

look at the radar out of the Virgin Islands

the center is below 18N at 0000UTC

on MIMIC its above 18N at 0000UTC


In fact MIMIC is the only thing that shows the center above 18N. Recon, satellite and radar shows it is still south of 18N
3025. FLdewey
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yeah...this isn't pretty:


There goes my corn crop. I knew I shouldn't have tried to grow corn in Florida.

Hmmm I wonder if corn floats.
Barbuda will likely see part of the eyewall within a couple hours, as I said earlier the population center is thankfully on the West side of the island, surrounded by a protected bayou.
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Ya'll I know this is totally off topic but I just got to see the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my 50 years of earth. Double rainbow about 7:00 CST. Totally amazing. Can someone tell me what causes that? I tried to take pics but mine are lame. A friend of mine posted hers on facebook so I asked her if I could perhaps post them on here they are truly unique and wonderful!


Yea, amazing. I filmed one 2 years ago.
97L looking a little more ragged this evening but will have to watch it over next few days.
Quoting FLdewey:

There goes my corn crop. I knew I shouldn't have tried to grow corn in Florida.

Hmmm I wonder if corn floats.

LOL!
Mimmic is horrible for determining direction,great for analizing structure,organization and intensity though
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
man pressure drop just today for Earl is becoming a frightening reality.30 degree water temp wind shear that eased off on the north east side of the storm and another patch of 30 degree water to cross probably around tomorrow night.Might be a chance that if it recurves along the eastern seaboard us here in Nova Scotia might not be able to miss it. Regardless our trees are still in full bloom and it would only take 70 mph winds to start pushing them over, which could result in lengthy power outages, i never wan't to go through 22 days with no power and 11 days without city water


Heya. Also in NS, in Yarmouth. I never felt Juan at all, but Earl bears watching for sure.
3032. trey33
Quoting 7544:
ok fla for labor day u asked for thr link here it is Link


Thank you. If this holds true, my labor day weekend trip from Central Florida to Atlantis and back should be a lot of fun....
3033. 7544
hes still going west ?
Quoting stillwaiting:
Mimmic is horrible for determining direction,great for analizing structure,organization and intensity though


shhhhh don't tell them that, they thought they had shut up the people that said Earl was still moving just north of due west lol
Yawl notice, that drop from the W 23 mph I think, to almost seems like its back to W15mph is not only good for Earl in terms of strengthening, but bad for NE Leewards & Virgin Islands
Link

Looks west in this one
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The latitude is pretty close for Sunday 8PM, but the lon is off it show about 59 and it's 61+. A little west but not too far south of the forecast.
3038. texcane
Does anyone have a link to the ECMWF plot to GOMEX. I cannot seem to break the code to find it. I am assuming that the references to "euro" are ECMWF. Thanks in advance. I posted this once already but couldn't find it, so apologies if this appears twice.
Quoting weathermancer:


Yea, amazing. I filmed one 2 years ago.
Thanks for acknowledging me - longtime member - I don't say much.
Quoting Sunglasses:
Earl is still tracking WEST and intensifying.

This storm is now in the "dangerous " bracket and has great potential given the current atmospheric conditions prevailing.


Yes, Earl appears to be intensifying once again. The last 2 AVN images from the GOES floater shows deep convection firing up near the COC (center of circulation). The radar loops are looking very healthy, the eye wall is wrapping the deep convection slowly into and around the inner core. It also appears wind shear from extra-tropical Danielle is decreasing.

I believe in 24-48 hrs, we will have a CAT 3-CAT 4 hurricane on our hands.

Earl appear to be moving more WWNW, than WNW at the moment. I hope and pray the folks in the Northern Lesser Antilles are safe and that PR, the USVI and the British VI are prepared for a possible CAT 2 storm close by!!
The blog is broken. Nothing I say is posting.
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Ya'll I know this is totally off topic but I just got to see the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my 50 years of earth. Double rainbow about 7:00 CST. Totally amazing. Can someone tell me what causes that? I tried to take pics but mine are lame. A friend of mine posted hers on facebook so I asked her if I could perhaps post them on here they are truly unique and wonderful!


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rainbow
Quoting 7544:
hes still going west ?


Earl is going out to sea in a few days, that's about it..
Quoting bluenosedave:


Heya. Also in NS, in Yarmouth. I never felt Juan at all, but Earl bears watching for sure.


The thickness of the crayon drawing the line of storm movement is the difference between "staying out to sea" and making "landfall".
3046. FLdewey
Quoting bluenosedave:


Heya. Also in NS, in Yarmouth. I never felt Juan at all, but Earl bears watching for sure.

Make sure Bubbles, Ricky and Julian board up the trailers. ;-)
Excellent post flyairbird thanks.
3048. Legion
Quoting stillwaiting:
Mimmic is horrible for determining direction,great for analizing structure,organization and intensity though


In my opinion, it's one of the best tools to determine direction.
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Earl is going out to sea in a few days, that's about it..


Gotta love the 'Ignore User' link.

POOF
Quoting CaneWarning:
The blog is broken. Nothing I say is posting.

Yes it is.
3051. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:

There goes my corn crop. I knew I shouldn't have tried to grow corn in Florida.

Hmmm I wonder if corn floats.



It does in my pot of water when I boil it.
3052. JRRP
3053. Dakster
Quoting Tazmanian:


CA


Canada or California?
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned westward to 7.5degrees north of dueWest
from its previous heading of 3.3degrees west of WestNorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h)

29Aug . 12amGMT - - 16.5n54.6w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - NHC.Adv.#14A
29Aug . 03amGMT - - 16.6n55.4w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - #15
29Aug . 06amGMT - - 16.7n56.2w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - #15A
29Aug . 09amGMT - - 16.9n56.9w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - #16
29Aug . 12pmGMT - - 17.1n57.6w - - 70mph - - - 972mb - - #16A
29Aug . 03pmGMT - - 17.2n58.4w - - 75mph - - - 985mb - - #17
29Aug . 06pmGMT - - 17.4n58.9w - - 75mph - - - 978mb - - #17A
29Aug . 09pmGMT - - 17.6n59.5w - - 85mph - - - 978mb - - #18
30Aug . 12amGMT - - 17.7n60.3w - - 85mph - - - 972mb - - #18A

Copy&paste 16.5n54.6w, 16.6n55.4w, 16.7n56.2w, 16.9n56.9w, 17.1n57.6w-17.2n58.4w, 17.2n58.4w-17.4n58.9w, 17.4n58.9w-17.6n59.5w, 17.6n59.5w-17.7n60.3w, tcb, 17.7n60.3w-18.0n62.8w, 17.7n60.3w-18.3n65.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

After giving scares previously to Barbuda and PuertoRico, then Mayaguana, then LittleInagua...
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~8hours from now to the channel between St.Martaan and St.Barthelemy
~19hours from now to DiegoJimenezTorresAirport,PuertoRico... less to Culebra
Quoting gordydunnot:
Excellent post flyairbird thanks.
You;re welcome...I sped up the frames and zoomed out a notch or so
Quoting FLdewey:

Make sure Bubbles, Ricky and Julian board up the trailers. ;-)


They don't care about their trailers... its harvest season.
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Earl is going out to sea in a few days, that's about it..

It will be close. Once it passes 100 miles east of LI, let down your guard, NOT till then..
Howdy all...
Earls missing the weakness,if he becomes under the influence that high over the mid atlantic theirs going to be some major track changes,by this time tomorrow night we should have a much better idea and confidence w/earls track imo
Quoting futuremet:


This is the 00z run.


I don't understand the significance of that. Please elaborate? TIA
3063. FLdewey
Quoting weathermancer:


They don't care about their trailers... its harvest season.

LMAO!!!

Worst Case Ontario they'll lose the shed.
Good night storm thanks as usual.
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Ya'll I know this is totally off topic but I just got to see the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my 50 years of earth. Double rainbow about 7:00 CST. Totally amazing. Can someone tell me what causes that? I tried to take pics but mine are lame. A friend of mine posted hers on facebook so I asked her if I could perhaps post them on here they are truly unique and wonderful!


I'm not sure why, but I see them about once a year here in Louisiana. I've lived in several other states and in Germany, but don't remember seeing them there.
3066. Dakster
PR got its radar up!! alrightly then.
3067. will40
Quoting Hurricanes101:


In fact MIMIC is the only thing that shows the center above 18N. Recon, satellite and radar shows it is still south of 18N


theres definately some issues using MIMIC we saw it last year as well. Some people think it is the gospel tho.
3069. xcool
MiamiHurricane west on rader ????
Pressure down to 994.8mb as they approach the circulation of Earl. A Google Earth image will be posted momentarily.

010900 1817N 06112W 6967 03063 9948 +094 +081 058072 073 051 006 00
Quoting stillwaiting:
Mimmic is horrible for determining direction,great for analizing structure,organization and intensity though


Actually, quite alot of us used to use this a few years back. It was common to see MIMIC linked on this blog. Many of those that used to are either no longer here or rarely post anymore. MIMIC got ALOT of use for that purpose during NOEL (which was sure alot of fun to track - interesting storm) and many other storms. Longitude/Latitude across the bottom and left side were quite helpful. This isn't an argument. Simply, an observation.
Good night, Storm. I look forward to your blog tomorrow.
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!


Nite Storm...... Get some rest... you're gonna need it..... If this is the pre-game show.....
Oh Man! ASCAT missed almost the whole ATL basin!!!
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!


Nite Storm...... Get some rest... you're gonna need it..... If this is the pre-game show.....
3076. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 300051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100830 0000 100830 1200 100831 0000 100831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 41.4W 14.6N 44.6W 15.4N 48.3W 16.6N 52.3W
BAMD 14.0N 41.4W 14.5N 44.4W 15.4N 47.6W 16.4N 50.9W
BAMM 14.0N 41.4W 14.4N 44.6W 15.2N 48.0W 16.2N 51.5W
LBAR 14.0N 41.4W 14.6N 44.7W 15.1N 48.4W 15.7N 52.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100901 0000 100902 0000 100903 0000 100904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 56.4W 24.3N 63.2W 32.7N 66.0W 41.2N 61.3W
BAMD 17.5N 54.2W 20.0N 60.7W 22.5N 65.6W 22.4N 68.9W
BAMM 17.6N 55.1W 21.3N 61.4W 25.6N 65.5W 29.3N 65.4W
LBAR 16.5N 55.9W 19.2N 62.2W 23.2N 66.8W 27.2N 66.3W
SHIP 48KTS 59KTS 62KTS 64KTS
DSHP 48KTS 59KTS 62KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 33.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting will40:


theres definately some issues using MIMIC we saw it last year as well. Some people think it is the gospel tho.


yup, its why I found it funny that when MIMIC was posted, someone thought it would shut up the westcaster lol

who knew their info was incorrect lol
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3079. xcool
3080. JLPR2
Quoting Dakster:
PR got its radar up!! alrightly then.


huzzah! LOL!
It would have been a real bummer if it weren't working for the storm :\
Timing is CRUCIAL, the race is on! Who will reach the East Coast first, Earl or the trough?

Photobucket
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Nite Storm...... Get some rest... you're gonna need it..... If this is the pre-game show.....


LOL
Does Storm have a buzzer ?
Mimmics positioning with tc's is often inaccurate,ever notice how it skips????its made to look at structure of tc's,radar then sat are the best.,of course the hh have the most accurate movement positions
Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurricane west on rader ????
Something I don't understand is, Recon is finding the circulation much further south than where it is being presented on Radar. Recon is obviously the more reliable tool, but since the Radar seems off, I can't really tell the direction of movement. Let's see where the vortex message is next time...probably to the WNW of the previous one based on satellite.
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Fair enough. If we're lucky, Earl will swamp Long Island and it will float away into the Atlantic!

Doubtful..IF Earl does not turn NW and then N and NNE as forecasted, everyone from NC to NS watch out!
3086. Greyelf
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Thanks for acknowledging me - longtime member - I don't say much.

I hope you'll get permission to post the photo. The photo gallery here is great. I've posted quite a few myself.
Two other points about using mimic for heading...You have to catch it when it's just released since it only updates every six hours or something. Also, using the java loop so you can pause it and get center fixes makes it much easier.
3088. JRRP
Quoting bluenosedave:


Heya. Also in NS, in Yarmouth. I never felt Juan at all, but Earl bears watching for sure.


Take care, you two in NS!

I love Nova Scotia; had an aunt from the Fundy side, and have visited the whole of NS several times. I love Mahone Bay.
3090. dader
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Thanks for acknowledging me - longtime member - I don't say much.


I thought it was a joke- have you not seen the youtube video with the guy and the double rainbow
3091. will40
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yup, its why I found it funny that when MIMIC was posted, someone thought it would shut up the westcaster lol

who knew their info was incorrect lol


yea i remember that lol. theres just something about real time frames if i remember correctly as movement goes.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Two other points about using mimic for heading...You have to catch it when it's just released since it only updates every six hours or something. Also, using the java loop so you can pause it and get center fixes makes it much easier.


good point, didnt think of that
3093. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Something I don't understand is, Recon is finding the circulation much further south than where it is being presented on Radar. Recon is obviously the more reliable tool, but since the Radar seems off, I can't really tell the direction of movement. Let's see where the vortex message is next time...probably to the WNW of the previous one based on satellite.


Whose radar? Maybe PR is still having problems?
3094. Dakster
xcool. That put Bermuda at risk...
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Earl is going out to sea in a few days, that's about it..


Really?? what about the Islands he visits before then?
3096. geepy86
NEW BLOG
Quoting angiest:


Whose radar? Maybe PR is still having problems?
This one:

Please excuse my weather ignorance, however, I have a question for the weather experts. If part of the model guidance is based on historical data, and we are entering uncharted waters(excuse the pun), as the planet heats up to record temps, how much weight should be given to historical data? Just wondering. Thanks in advance if someone wants to answer.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yeah...this isn't pretty:

that the 00z run, the 12z run has that same some over nola
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yeah...this isn't pretty:

I think you've posted the 00z euro, the lastest, the 12z euro has the same storm over nola. Lets wait until the next 00z run.
June was above-average in terms of Tropical Cyclone activity, and so was July. August so far has had Colin, Danielle, Earl, and may possibly end with Fiona.
Good evening everyone! Did Earl finally start the "recurve"?
New Blog
3104. xcool
newwwwwwwwwww blog
Reedzone, Nice Graphic. You are correct in the Timing thing. My fear is that Earl lost his watch, because so far he cant tell time.
3106. xcool
new blog
Quoting robert88:
I noticed some people are about to write off 97L. Not so fast. 97L has the biggest envelope of any TW this season coming off Africa. It is the size of a pacific typhoon and it is easier to pull in dry air from the mid levels. It is not going to really pop until it gets next to islands which is a bad thing for the US. Remember how long Alex took to consolidate??? I hate to see how big of a monster it will become once it takes off.
if 97 slows done someone is definately in BIG TROUBLE, I mean BIG!
Quoting Fla55Native:
Please excuse my weather ignorance, however, I have a question for the weather experts. If part of the model guidance is based on historical data, and we are entering uncharted waters(excuse the pun), as the planet heats up to record temps, how much weight should be given to historical data? Just wondering. Thanks in advance if someone wants to answer.

Models I believe use a combination of current conditions and previous information, ran through a super-computer.

Accuracy is good for the first 4 days/73hrs. After that their reliability cannot be trusted..
The projected northerly direction of Earl in a day or two is flawed, in my view because the intensity and size of the Hurricane will allow it to continue Westward and the HP building over the US coast will draw EARL in towards the coast.

The long term forecast therefore is depressing.

Heres hoping that I am wrong and Earl remains a idle threat albeit a potentially devastating one.
Really Strong Thunderstorm in South East Florida

Its Been Raining all day...

Whats going on?
3111. Droab
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yeah...this isn't pretty:



Where is this or do you have link
3077. Hurricanes101 1:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2010

LOL! That wasn't the purpose at all.

Most of the blog, with a few exceptions, validates why alot of folks don't bother posting anymore. *poof*
Quoting jeebsa:
(As my jaw hits the floor)is that 97L or the new one near the C.V.
97
3114. Greyelf
Quoting dader:


I thought it was a joke- have you not seen the youtube video with the guy and the double rainbow

Next week he gets a "web redemption" on Tosh.0.
radar actually shows a wobble SW

and recon is close to the center, winds are still out of the NE at 17.8N
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Really Strong Thunderstorm in South East Florida

Its Been Raining all day...

Whats going on?


It's Summer in Florida.
NEW BLOG.
Thanks Bordonaro!
Quoting ftpiercecane:
Watching some of the models does not look good for ecfl as far as 97L goes. Plan on installing a new 1 million btu boiler on the roof of the resort I work at on the 6th and 7th. *crossing fingers*
yeah, between Fort Pierce and Melbourne the eye goes over Indian River County, which would be in the eye as a Cat 4 or 5



This 72-hr sfc map has Earl completely missing Danielle's departing weakness and pushing up against the 1020mb isobar of the high pressure to its north, effectively blocking Earl's northerly path. That is unless the CONUS trough behind the high comes along and pulls it northwards - lots of time and ifs between now and then, imo.
Quoting FLdewey:

There goes my corn crop. I knew I shouldn't have tried to grow corn in Florida.

Hmmm I wonder if corn floats.
might end up with popcorn if that comes here
3122. dader
Quoting Greyelf:

Next week he gets a "web redemption" on Tosh.0.


Awesome love that show
Quoting naitsabes:
yeah, between Fort Pierce and Melbourne the eye goes over Indian River County, which would be in the eye as a Cat 4 or 5


And cows might jump over the moon. I just haven't see one yet.
Quoting naitsabes:
yeah, between Fort Pierce and Melbourne the eye goes over Indian River County, which would be in the eye as a Cat 4 or 5
Are you looking at the latest euro model. The one I see, the 12z has 97 over nola, by-passing fl. Of course that will change too, but just wonder what run you've seen. Thanks
3125. jonelu
Quoting stillwaiting:
Mimmic is horrible for determining direction,great for analizing structure,organization and intensity though


but would you agree it shows where the strongest portion of the cyclone has been?
Looking for a high level answer to a complicated question. Why are they so many models and do they or don't they use the same criteria for determining tracking guidance.
Quoting TcuFrogs:
Looking for a high level answer to a complicated question. Why are they so many models and do they or don't they use the same criteria for determining tracking guidance.


Each has its own programmers and its own opinion about the butterfly model and therefore their own idea about what affects what in the tropical weather.
Quoting Clearwater1:
Are you looking at the latest euro model. The one I see, the 12z has 97 over nola, by-passing fl. Of course that will change too, but just wonder what run you've seen. Thanks
you are looking at the operational Euro, we review more sophisticated versions
Quoting naitsabes:
you are looking at the operational Euro, we review more sophisticated versions
Nope, checked it again, you posted the aug 29, 00z run, showing 9/7/10. The latest and only other euro model run is the 12z. 9/7/10 has the storm at the sw tip of fl. headed toward nola. Subject to change on the next 00z run, of course.
3130. leddyed
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Ya'll I know this is totally off topic but I just got to see the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my 50 years of earth. Double rainbow about 7:00 CST. Totally amazing. Can someone tell me what causes that? I tried to take pics but mine are lame. A friend of mine posted hers on facebook so I asked her if I could perhaps post them on here they are truly unique and wonderful!
Link Took this one on the first day of summer this year (I think). Details in description.
3131. stormy3
Quoting FLdewey:

There goes my corn crop. I knew I shouldn't have tried to grow corn in Florida.

Hmmm I wonder if corn floats.
Guess you could feed it to your cows but then the next question would be can your cows float. Barbecue beef sandwiches anyone?
Quoting Grecojdw:


I think from what I've learned from this forum its because the models typically are not good tools before the genesis of a storm. Once the storm finally forms into Fiona, the model runs should be a little better at track probabilities.


It's always easier to predict the future on the basis of "what is" as opposed to "what might be". If for no other reason there is more hard data to extrapolate from. Common sense.
3133. liljade
Quoting Bordonaro:

Doubtful..IF Earl does not turn NW and then N and NNE as forecasted, everyone from NC to NS watch out!
If Earl is still moving west,what would keep it from entering the GOMEX?
Earl again moving west, towards St.Thomas in the VI.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Yeah, because the NHC track is gospel and storms never veer away once the "NHC has pretty much nailed the track" to quote Ike. Yep, I have never seen a storm take an unexpected turn once the experts told me exactly where it was going to go. They are the experts, you know, they are without fault.


My initial statement on the NHC forcast points, in general, as pretty darn good were wrong. NolaLawyer, I do stand corrected on this one. Looking back now, at the cone and forcast points 3 days ago. Way off.