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Hurricane Dolly smashes ashore

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2008

Hurricane Dolly smashed ashore on the South Texas coast on Padre Island early this afternoon, bringing 100 mph winds and a storm surge of 6-8 feet to the coast. The southern edge of the eyewall is now battering Harlingen, where sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 74 mph, have been observed. Reports from the Hurricane Hunters show that Dolly's pressure is now rising, and radar imagery out of Brownsville, Texas confirms that the storm is starting to weaken. Visible satellite loops show the eye is starting to deteriorate, though Dolly still looks plenty impressive.


Figure 1. Hurricane Dolly at landfall.

Links to follow:
Brownsville, TX long range radar
Brownsville, TX weather
Harlingen, Texas weather
Corpus Christi, TX weather

Damage expected from Dolly
The southern portion of Dolly's eyewall passed over the town of South Padre Island, located on the coast on a barrier island. Wind damage from Dolly will be heaviest here. The sister cities of Brownsville, Texas, and Matamoros, in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, missed getting the eyewall, but did get gusts near hurricane force. Damage to roofs and mobile homes has already been reported in these regions. Harlingen, located 25 miles inland and 20 miles north of Brownsville, is getting a portion of the southern eyewall, and will suffer more damage than Brownsville. There are a few tiny towns on Laguna Madre, the sound behind Padre Island, that received the full force of Dolly. These towns, Port Mansfield and Arroyo City, will receive heavy wind damage and some storm surge damage. Dolly has already spawned two tornadoes, but neither of these did damage. More tornadoes are expected.


Figure 2. Radar estimated precipitation of Dolly. Amount in excess of 14 inches have already fallen near the coast.

Floods remains a huge concern from Dolly. Rainfall amounts of five inches per hour were observed along the coast, with total rainfall amounts in excess of 14 inches. The real concern is how much rain will fall inland over the Rio Grande River watershed. In 1967, Hurricane Beulah, a huge and powerful Category 3 hurricane, dumped up to 27 inches of rain inland, triggering major flooding throughout South Texas and Northeast Mexico. Beulah did over $1 billion in damage to Texas, according to Wikipedia.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (97L) off the coast of Africa, just west of the Cape Verde Islands, is now over cool water of 25°C. The wave still has a large circulation, but has lost all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Until this disturbance can find some warmer water (which should happen by Saturday), there is little chance of it developing. None of the reliable computer models show development of this system.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave, due to move off the coast of Africa 4-5 days from now.

I'll have an update Thursday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Just did a quick analysis of Invest 97 and must say that the circulation impresses me, but it will not do anything until it reaches warmer waters in about 2 days. In addition, the atmosphere remains too stable and dry around Invest 97 for any convective development. The computer models have continued to be rather bullish on developing this feature. All in all, I will have to wait until it reaches warmer waters in order to form a solid opinion on Invest 97.

Now, referring to possible Invest 98. Since this wave just came off Africa, I will have to wait another 24 hours before I can begin forecasting it since I want to see how the tropical wave reacts to its new water environment. If it can hold most of its convection, then it will be something that bares watching.

So, in both features' cases, it will be a wait-and-see process in my mind. Give it another 24 to 48 hours, then I can offer an opinion on both new features.
Any reports from Huston? Their highways flood when a mouse takes a wiz.
Have the oil companies started complaining about refinery trouble yet?
Hope all the Boarder folk can recover quickly. I haven't heard the injury reports, but hope it is light.
Good morning

Two areas of interest in the Atlantic. Ex 97L still has a strong rotation with it but being embedded in a very stable and dry environment will prevent any type of development for the near term.

The wave that has just come off the coast of W Africa was partially caught by quickscat this morning and there is enough of the pass to show a clearly defined surface low. This is likely to be become an invest within 24 hrs.

Click on link then click on image to enlarge for Hi Res.

Link
Just took a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals from Hurricane Dolly and they are staggering in some locations. It looks like Harlingen got the most rainfall with above 25 inches around the city. Just amazing and scary if you ask me.
1006. fmbill
Good morning cchsweatherman and kmanislander,

I agree...the two waves are certainly worthing of watching. For several days now, a few of the models have wanted to develop these systems. Interestingly, the the 2nd one is predicted by the GFS to head to the Bahamas and cross Florida from the southeast coast.

We'll have to wait and see.

I still can't get over it's only July!
stormw...you don't need to qualify yourself to me, that's for sure...if you're not a met then no one is...
Good morning from Jupiter...

How's everyone doing today?
Biff...I'm in Katy and we got two little showers yesterday, less than .25 inches, but we are getting more rain this morning finally. Haven't heard of any flooding problems, but wrecks everywhere this morning. Apparently people forgot how to drive in the rain. Could see some minor flooding in downtown later this morning if this rain keeps up.
stormw just remember there are many more people who read and seldom post - but rely and enjoy this blog --than there are of the trolls who try and run the people with the knowledge off this site
1011. fmbill
Good morning StormW...I'm glad you clarified that. Now I know what I can call myself - a "weathercaster".

Of course, there are those who have words for me :-)
Kmanislander: The wave that has just come off the coast of W Africa was partially caught by quickscat this morning and there is enough of the pass to show a clearly defined surface low. This is likely to be become an invest within 24 hrs.
Fascinating! That wave looks quite healthy, doesn't it? (I'm going to set a schedule for visiting Wunderground and stick to it...starting with minimum four hour breaks!)
Regards to all.
I'm glad the drought is over in SW Texas, anyway, and hope everyone there can pick up and put things back together with help from family, friends, and of course, accessible government assistance.
Wait a cotton pickin' minute! StormW I'd absolutely love to be certified AMS as I am working on my degree in Met. so can I be certified without having my degree is that what you're saying?
morning StormW...you need to copy, cut and save that comment and the next time stormkat, stormtop, stormttop, and any other alias she has, and insert it then...lets put the kat out into the storm...LOL
1016. MahFL
Its still raining from Dolly.
StormW does 3 yrs experience count as taking a wx watcher class and/or interning at my local NWS office or with the Met. at one of my local tv stations?
Hi Storm, you're such a conscientious person! Everything appears okay to me...not to worry.
adios amigos.
tigger...Is stormdummy really a 'she'?
yep press...when she is on a rampage on stormW...and people are bashing her...read her posts carefully....she refers to "HERSELF" all the time AND calls StormW "DEAR" and a few other pet names...easy if you read between the lines...ROFL
I've read this blog for years, and IMO, StormW is as good a Met as you'll find anywhere, degree or no degree.
Sure is nice to be able to read this morning with out all the HOOPLAH
oh boy....I'll bet she's FINE.....
It's raining very hard in Corpus Christi and has most of the night and into the morning. The wind is still blowing very hard here. In fact, I've wondered if my patio door is going to come crashing in at any moment because it keeps rattling. I'm going in to work as soon as this wave passes over. May get stuck there :(
FYI-- HOUSTON is getting drenched right now with heavy thunder showers.
gotta go back to work...just popped in to see what was up with Dolly...oldest son had puter work last night for college and could not get on...anyway...I said if she made cat2 it would be minimal...and it was (only by 4mph), but I was still surprised since the western edge looked so bad on tuesday...but from what I understand, the eye hitting near brownsville meant the worst edge hit mostly country...at least that is what a poster said...hope everyone is ok...bouncin out till lunch time!
go back and modify it...only you can cuz it is yours
stormw...it's not that bad...and I think ya oughta leave it for future reference...the modify feature is malfunctioning....
1031. IKE
If you try the modify link 2 or 3 times it will eventually work....
Quoting DatagirlWPB:
stormw just remember there are many more people who read and seldom post - but rely and enjoy this blog --than there are of the trolls who try and run the people with the knowledge off this site


I am one of those people. I have been following these blogs for about a year now and have had only 1 or 2 other posts. My question is the term "troll". It is used often but in various context's. Could you or someone else please explain it's definition? I would like to better identify them so that I can "ignore" the comments from them. Thx in advance.
1027. StormW

I don't think its your post. Post #986, at least when I hide it blog shrinks back.
One of two large power transmission towers at the Port of Brownsville has been taken out. If second line fails entire AEP grid for S TX will be knocked offline.

SPI hit pretty hard. Hotels sustained heavy damage to upper floors and roofs with water into most from roof and window failures. All services to SPI have been knocked off line…water, power, sewer. One serious injury transported to mainland.

Two shelters (SPI convention center) and school in Raymondville have experienced damage.



State set to deploy air and surface strike teams into the region at 600am today to begin search and rescue and damage assessment.

can i have a link to this photo thanks


Bettes of TWC moved up to Harlingen from Brownsville. Be interesting to see damage there once it gets good and light outside.

Lots of rain moving through Galv. Bay this morning.
1003. kmanislander 5:06 AM PDT on July 24, 2008
Good morning

Two areas of interest in the Atlantic. Ex 97L still has a strong rotation with it but being embedded in a very stable and dry environment will prevent any type of development for the near term.

The wave that has just come off the coast of W Africa was partially caught by quickscat this morning and there is enough of the pass to show a clearly defined surface low. This is likely to be become an invest within 24 hrs.

Click on link then click on image to enlarge for Hi Res.


thanks
Storm...no blog stretch here from your posts.
I think you're fine.
1042. fmbill
Quoting RitaEvac:
State set to deploy air and surface strike teams into the region at 600am today to begin search and rescue and damage assessment.



I hope everyone allows them to do their job. One of the biggest hinderances to the damage assessment teams is all the people doing their own drive-around's.

It's okay to go check on your neighbors, but please leave the roadways as clear as possible.

Oh...and don't take your frustration out on these people. It's not their fault...whatever you're mad about. Besides, they will likely have a police officer with them just because of past experience with upset people.

1037. Tazmanian

Link

Click on that area.
1044. ticka1
Getting rain here in Houston on the East Side and into Downtown. Radar continues to show rain training in off the Gulf. Definitely more rain then yesterday. But we need it.
Good morning everyone! The wave that has emerged off Africa is retaining an impressive amount of convection and this needs to be watched.
1043. nrtiwlnvragn 5:45 AM PDT on July 24, 2008
1037. Tazmanian

Link

Click on that area


thanks
Quoting biff4ugo:
Any reports from Huston? Their highways flood when a mouse takes a wiz.
Have the oil companies started complaining about refinery trouble yet?
Hope all the Boarder folk can recover quickly. I haven't heard the injury reports, but hope it is light.


Well.. not a mouse, but maybe a cat ;)

I have not heard of any flooding around here. Overnight was our biggest amount of rain from Dolly, so far. But I'd still say we get more rain from the Gulf on a typical summer afternoon than Dolly has given us.
hi 236 what do you think about the wave that this emerged off of Africa this AM???
1049. nash28
Well, as quickly as 97L got named, I would expect 98L today. They designated 97L within hours of it popping off the coast....
Wind shear with the strong wave is about 10-20 knots so any development would probably be slow to occur. The system is at the perfect latitude for development considering the above average SSTs and overall warm waters in its path.
Good Morning StormW. I have a question this morning. Do you remember any summers in recent memory when frontal boundaries regularly made it into NE Fl in the July ?
The wave that came off of Africa, this morning is very immpressive its still holding strong check it it out
Good morning! Wow the same people that have been
getting hammered and battered by Dolly for 30
something hours are still getting it right now. Sheesh. I feel bad for them.

Look at that wave that came off of Africa... Heck
a lot more impressive than 97L.. But it might be
too low.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi 236 what do you think about the wave that this emerged off of Africa this AM???


I am very interested in it. It isn't very organized right now but that isn't expected with a new tropical wave off the coast this early in the season. Convection has been persistent so far however.
Quoting dipatel1:
The wave that came off of Africa, this morning is very immpressive its still holding strong check it it out


Your picture is not showing up.
Sorry here is the link:

Link
1054. extreme236 5:52 AM PDT on July 24, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi 236 what do you think about the wave that this emerged off of Africa this AM???


I am very interested in it. It isn't very organized right now but that isn't expected with a new tropical wave off the coast this early in the season. Convection has been persistent so far however



you think we will hae 98L today from it???
that's ok dipatel1...I just wanted to let you know. Thanks for the link. Looks like a strong wave.
Quoting Tazmanian:
1054. extreme236 5:52 AM PDT on July 24, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi 236 what do you think about the wave that this emerged off of Africa this AM???


I am very interested in it. It isn't very organized right now but that isn't expected with a new tropical wave off the coast this early in the season. Convection has been persistent so far however



you think we will hae 98L today from it???


I know I'm not 236 but I know it will be 98L
as long as it keeps up the way it is, and
gets better organized. My prediction is in
12-18 hours we will have 98L.
Quoting Tazmanian:
1054. extreme236 5:52 AM PDT on July 24, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi 236 what do you think about the wave that this emerged off of Africa this AM???


I am very interested in it. It isn't very organized right now but that isn't expected with a new tropical wave off the coast this early in the season. Convection has been persistent so far however



you think we will hae 98L today from it???


Possibly. I imagine the NHC would mention it in their outlook first before they gave it an invest designation but they don't have to.
Here is a bit from the HPC discussion...if anything wants to form in the Caribbean in the near term (no signs of anything right now) then this would be the time for it:

AS THE TUTT DRIFTS TO THE WEST... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 24 HRS WILL FOLLOW. IT WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR HAITI BY 48-60 HRS AND NEAR JAMAICA BY 72 HRS...
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

1061. extreme236 5:58 AM PDT on July 24, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
1054. extreme236 5:52 AM PDT on July 24, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi 236 what do you think about the wave that this emerged off of Africa this AM???


I am very interested in it. It isn't very organized right now but that isn't expected with a new tropical wave off the coast this early in the season. Convection has been persistent so far however



you think we will hae 98L today from it???


Possibly. I imagine the NHC would mention it in their outlook first before they gave it an invest designation but they don't have to.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


ok where is it going 236???
1063.

Its probably going westward for a while Taz considering its lower latitude (south of 12N). After the next couple of days I can't be sure what will happen since I don't know how strong the ridge will be and what ULL's or trofs could effect steering.
Quoting extreme236:
Here is a bit from the HPC discussion...if anything wants to form in the Caribbean in the near term (no signs of anything right now) then this would be the time for it:

AS THE TUTT DRIFTS TO THE WEST... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 24 HRS WILL FOLLOW. IT WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR HAITI BY 48-60 HRS AND NEAR JAMAICA BY 72 HRS...
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.



It's a good thing that wasn't the case when
Dolly came through.. We could have had a really
major storm. Good thing the ULL was too strong.
ok 236
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Quoting biff4ugo:
Any reports from Huston? Their highways flood when a mouse takes a wiz.
Have the oil companies started complaining about refinery trouble yet?
Hope all the Boarder folk can recover quickly. I haven't heard the injury reports, but hope it is light.


Well.. not a mouse, but maybe a cat ;)

I have not heard of any flooding around here. Overnight was our biggest amount of rain from Dolly, so far. But I'd still say we get more rain from the Gulf on a typical summer afternoon than Dolly has given us.


Any word from your relatives yet? I was a little concerned, they seemed to take the brunt of Dolly.
Good morning all.

I took a look at the GFS model run this morning. One interesting thing is that toward the end of the forecast, it shows the Bermuda high dipping south quiet a bit. I suppose that would tend to steer anything that does form toward the west and prevent recurvature unless trough were to come through at the right time.

Any thoughts?
Another thought occurred to me this morning (which is an odd thing to happen to me). How is it that such a huge area in the middle of the Atlantic can have such dry air? I realize that dust / dry air comes off of Africa from time to time, but it just seems odd that that large an area of dry air could persist over the middle of an ocean with all of the evaporation that takes place. I would love to hear an explanation from someone who knows a bit about it.
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
Good morning all.

I took a look at the GFS model run this morning. One interesting thing is that toward the end of the forecast, it shows the Bermuda high dipping south quiet a bit. I suppose that would tend to steer anything that does form toward the west and prevent recurvature unless trough were to come through at the right time.

Any thoughts?


Yea that would be bad if anything were to form for the US and other countries. Although I've found the GFS not to be very accurate for late-period forecasts. It is a concern nonetheless.
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
Another thought occurred to me this morning (which is an odd thing to happen to me). How is it that such a huge area in the middle of the Atlantic can have such dry air? I realize that dust / dry air comes off of Africa from time to time, but it just seems odd that that large an area of dry air could persist over the middle of an ocean with all of the evaporation that takes place. I would love to hear an explanation from someone who knows a bit about it.


What's happening is the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is currently in a downward pulse. The downward pulse increases subsidence, or dry air, in the area, which is resulting in a large area of dry air. Some of that dry air would be there without the downward MJO pulse but it has increased because of that pulse. A large reason why were saw some pretty active tropics recently has been because of the upward pulse of the MJO, which increases moisture across the area.
Thanks 236.
If you scroll down to Week 1 on the CPC outlook they refer to Ex-97L however as we know now 97L didn't roll off the coast as far south as was expected, however this new wave should apply to this map as well considering the same favorable dynamics should be there.
there is a little probability blob off the SC coast...Can someone explain to me the dynamics of why it's there? Thanks!
extreme...between you and stormw, I almost have this MJO business figured out...Thanks....
Quoting presslord:
there is a little probability blob off the SC coast...Can someone explain to me the dynamics of why it's there? Thanks!


A probability of formation blob on the NHC map off the coast? I don't see one on the map.
Quoting presslord:
extreme...between you and stormw, I almost have this MJO business figured out...Thanks....


No problem...I only know about the MJO because of what StormW said about it, but I figure when he's not here its worth passing it on to others :)
rambb prob...climatological I assume
Quoting presslord:
rambb prob...climatological I assume


Oh I will take a look at that and see whats up with that.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just took a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals from Hurricane Dolly and they are staggering in some locations. ...


Radar numbers don't always agree with rain gauge numbers. They are usually high. The Brownsville rain gauge doesn't show near what the radar suggests. Of course Harlingen is off line so they did get some wind, but no rain gauge numbers are available either.
I think this is the map your referring too. I looked at the satellite imagery and there appears to be a front of some sort of the East Coast and there is some convection down off the SC coast.

Is the MJO forecasted to have an upward pulse in the following weeks?


Thanks extreme...send stormjunkie the bill for your services....
Friends in Rio Hondo (just out side of Harlingen) didn't get the eye, but they got part of the eyewall. Moderate roof damage to two rooms of their house, thus water damage inside, no power, lost part of their barn, and a lot of downed trees and fences - but everyone is alright. Will be heading down there tomorrow after work to help them clean up over the weekend.
Quoting CoastalTX:
Friends in Rio Hondo (just out side of Harlingen) didn't get the eye, but they got part of the eyewall. Moderate roof damage to two rooms of their house, thus water damage inside, no power, lost part of their barn, and a lot of downed trees and fences - but everyone is alright. Will be heading down there tomorrow after work to help them clean up over the weekend.
Quoting dipatel1:
Is the MJO forecasted to have an upward pulse in the following weeks?




MJO is expected to be in a downward pulse for at least the next couple of weeks I believe. Its supposed to be in an upward pulse right around the peak of the season.
1070. Canesinlowplaces 1:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2008

The MJO is an oscillating event and is certainly adding to the dry air/subsidence in the tropics extending somewhat into the subtropics.

The main reason for dry, sinking air in the central Atlantic despite as you point a large source of evaporational moisture is the Hadley Cell.

The image below show that there is a meridional (north-south) circulation in the atmsophere that causing a general sinking motion in subtropics. This plays a role in the main subtropical deserts, but also in the sprawling Bermuda high that climatologically dominates the Atlantic.

1068.
Any word from your relatives yet? I was a little concerned, they seemed to take the brunt of Dolly.


It's a friend of mine and her relatives. They made it out ok. Water from the Bay of Port Isabel went into the house. Fence is completely gone. Some wind damage to the house. No power. Her car has been beat up by all the flying debris. But they are all ok. Last I talked to them, they were trying to get to a hotel in Brownsville.

Thanks for checking :)
THANK YOU, DOLLY!!

Finally! Some good rain this morning. We need it so badly!
Quoting kellnerp:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just took a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals from Hurricane Dolly and they are staggering in some locations. ...


Radar numbers don't always agree with rain gauge numbers. They are usually high. The Brownsville rain gauge doesn't show near what the radar suggests. Of course Harlingen is off line so they did get some wind, but no rain gauge numbers are available either.


Radar estimates in thunderstorms are terrible due to hail contamination. The ice in hail sends back a bunch more EM radiation back to the radar that a drop of water of the same size...therefore the hail shows up too high in dBz...and makes it looks like it rained a bunch more than it did.

However, with tropical cyclones there is VERY rarely any hail, so these radar estimates are much more accurate - and even sometimes underestimate due to drop size distribution.

Overall, these radar estimates appear pretty realistic to me based on intensity and duration of deep tropical convection with the southern eyewall.
incredible rainfall amounts for Dolly.....

purple 20-25inches, light blue 25+!



Could not imagine getting that much rainfall!
Morning! wow...lots of great information today!
I got to take some notes here!

How does that Hadley Cell form and why?

I'm trying to grasp these MJO/NAO/PNA type dealies and I'm very happy to see its part of the discussion today. Do tell me more!!!

Thanks!

(OSUwxguy, you're on fire today! Keep it up!)


Dolly still has her eye!!!
The wave that came off of Africa, this morning is very immpressive its still holding strong check it it out< Your link is not showing.
thank you for the graphic. even though i don't completely understand it, it helped me understand more than i did before. question, why do thay call them the Horse latitudes? the Doldrums?
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
1070. Canesinlowplaces 1:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2008

The MJO is an oscillating event and is certainly adding to the dry air/subsidence in the tropics extending somewhat into the subtropics.

The main reason for dry, sinking air in the central Atlantic despite as you point a large source of evaporational moisture is the Hadley Cell.

The image below show that there is a meridional (north-south) circulation in the atmsophere that causing a general sinking motion in subtropics. This plays a role in the main subtropical deserts, but also in the sprawling Bermuda high that climatologically dominates the Atlantic.

1097. Corax23
Quoting tiggeriffic:
gotta go back to work...just popped in to see what was up with Dolly...oldest son had puter work last night for college and could not get on...anyway...I said if she made cat2 it would be minimal...and it was (only by 4mph), but I was still surprised since the western edge looked so bad on tuesday...but from what I understand, the eye hitting near brownsville meant the worst edge hit mostly country...at least that is what a poster said...hope everyone is ok...bouncin out till lunch time!


Completely incorrect. You guys don't seem to know the geography of the area or much about Texas outside of Houston. Which BTW is about as close to the area of impact as Richmond, VA is to Manhattan - just to give some perspective.

This storm, unlike many "textbook" hurricanes had the worst winds and rains along the western and southern eyewall. The southern eyewall passed over Harlingen and the towns along route 77, a LOT of people live there. Damage reports are just coming in because yesterday was just too windy and rainy to get out and look. People in San Benito are having to be ferried out of their homes by boat, entire areas of Harlingen are under 2 feet of water and so on. So don't go imply that the storm hit "mostly country" as if to say it only blew over a few chicken coops or something.

People come here trying to get information which is not available from the official sources, which typically lag by an hour or two and have to sort through hundreds of self-congratulatory posts apropos of nothing, and all this idiot "wishcasting", "downcasting", nonsense and Bee Ess.

Fortunately some of the other materials on Weather Underground are useful or I would have to reconsider subscribing again next year or perhaps demand my money back, I am still undecided about the former.

This blog is a real disappointment Dr. Master's really needs to clean this mess up.

.
Wow, thanks again extreme and OSU. I like this so much better than the soap operas I've seen lately.

So, if I am understanding your diagram correctly regarding the Hadley Cell, it looks like moisture tends to move towards the equator at the lower levels which produces a lot of rain as the heat at the equator causes the moist air to rise. Afterwards, there is dryer air left in the upper levels which moves poleward leaving dryer air around the 30 north region. Maybe this is over-simplified, but is that close?
1097...I agree that too often bloggers here are overly seduced by the science...and fail to take into account the uncertainties of nature...

however...it's a blog...a conversation...and in that sense it works quite well...no mess to clean up...caveat emptor...
As long as the African wave stays south of 15N SSTs will be favorable for development.
Good morning all. I see it's Education Thursday since it's kind of quiet so far, cool! Dolly seems to be running out of moisture now that she's pulling further away from the GOM. Hopefully that trend will continue and what's left of her won't cause anymore flooding than she already has.
1103. IKE
1097...sorry for folks suffering from Dolly.

This blog has a ton of useful information. You just have to sift through the bad stuff. It's well worth the money.......
1099 Cane, Thank you for that explanation, that is helping me understand this graph better.
Quoting LakeShadow:
<
How does that Hadley Cell form and why?


The Hadley Cell is driven largely by convection along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). As the rising air within storms hits the tropopause (boundary between the tropopshere and the very stable stratosphere) it cannot rise anymore and therefore spreads out in all directions. The northward and southward moving components of the this eventually sink in the subtropics.

Note from the diagram, also the low and high pressure. The ITCZ is an area of low pressure (convergence and rising motion) whereas the sinking air in the subtropics is high pressre (like the Bermuda High).
The new African wave is likely to stay just south of 10N in the next few days as it is currently around 7N (in my guesstimation!!). SSTs are above average around 10N all the way to the South-America so lot of things going for this wave...however as of yet NHC has nothing to say about this!?
Morning everyone!

I see we have a new Twave off the African coast to watch. Conditions are marginal for develop now, so I would't look for development until it gets in the CATL (30W and westward)...JMO

One thing 97L is doing is creating a more moist environment for the system behind to ''work with''...
I'm gonna beat this dead horse a little more...there are plenty of tools on this site which convey timely, accurate information which one can use as one sees fit...but this blog is a place for amateurs and hobbyists to discuss tropical weather...with the exception of Dr. masters posts (and stormw's, as Masters features him)...everything else here is just someone's opinion...very interesting, I'll concede...but if anyone makes personal safety decisions based on something they pick up here, I'd seriously question their judgement...
Quoting setfree7:
thank you for the graphic. even though i don't completely understand it, it helped me understand more than i did before. question, why do thay call them the Horse latitudes? the Doldrums?



Can't remember the story behind the Horse Latitudes...but the Doldrums are found along the ITCZ where there is a general lack of wind. This absence of "trade winds" caused merchant sailing ships back in the old days to stall out for long periods of time in the Doldrums causing serious problems to those on board (i.e. scurvy and starvation)
1112. Patrap

Mental Health

The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a �Major Disaster� for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster second hand through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.
The environment around this African wave is mixed. Wind shear is about 20 knots (marginal) however I can't tell whether or not wind shear is on a downward trend of not...SSTs however are sufficiently warm (27C)...the environment is fairly moist as well.
1105. OSUWXGUY

thanks!!

I am currently brushing up on some reading here about the atmosphere in one of the links from StormJunkie's weather learning page. In case anyone is also learning with me, check this out!

Link
corax i disagree with you. I just think you are in a bad mood. The blog is educational imformative and generally fun. Hey get rid of that pop up
remove whatever sat image you just posted now I get a login screen everytime I refresh
1118. Patrap
GOES-12 WV Loop of the Basin with DRY air shaded..Link
1120. newt3d
1097. It seems like this blog has 3 different types of people that browse it.
1. People in storm affected areas who want the most up-to-date information they can get
2. People who are learning about tropical weather and attempt to apply their newly found knowledge to the current situation. (x-casters)
3. People who just like to chat.

I guess you could say this blog might have an identity crisis. Some people expect things out of it, some people expect others. Maybe this blog needs a mission statement!
Dr. Patrap is in the house!
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Quoting LakeShadow:
<
How does that Hadley Cell form and why?


The Hadley Cell is driven largely by stuff along the Intertrapashere Conditional Wave (ITCW). As the rising stuff within storms hits the trapzone (boundary between the trapapshere and the very unstable stratasfere) it cannot rise anymore and therefore spreads out in only one direction. The north and south moving stuff of the this eventually sink in the water.

Note from the diagram, also the low and high pressure. The ITCW is an area of low air stuff (conversely and rising stuff) whereas the sinking stuff in the subtropics is high pressre (like the Bermuda Low).


Do you think this "stuff" you speak of drives the areas of high and low pressure in the atmosphere in only one direction?
1123. Patrap
Flag the post and ADMIN will remove it..

i keep getting the pop up too...
1125. IKE
Quoting melwerle:
i keep getting the pop up too...


I reported to Admin and removed his quote. He needs to edit it.
1127. surfmom
I remember when I confused MJO w/ MOJO (from the Austin powers movies) What a ditz I can be -

gomex surfers: the last of Dolly - 2-3ft WSW filling in today at the right spots - presently knee high and clean - condtions shld be better late afternoon..get out if you can cause with Dolly gone...we're back to flat (PUN intended!!)
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
Wow, thanks again extreme and OSU. I like this so much better than the soap operas I've seen lately.

So, if I am understanding your diagram correctly regarding the Hadley Cell, it looks like moisture tends to move towards the equator at the lower levels which produces a lot of rain as the heat at the equator causes the moist air to rise. Afterwards, there is dryer air left in the upper levels which moves poleward leaving dryer air around the 30 north region. Maybe this is over-simplified, but is that close?


Definitely close! The moisture in the air is fairly high at the surface due to evaporation form the ocean in the winds that come together at the ITCZ. The convergence of the northeasterly trade winds from north of the equator and the southeasterly trade wind from south of the equator leaves nowhere for the air to go but up...and with the moist, unstable air you get storms.

The return flow or sinking air you speak of is the only area I think your description is a little off. The air flowing north (in the northern hemispher) at upper levels is relatively moist for that high in the atmoshper...however...when air descends it is heated diabatically - essentially the pressure is higher as you go down in the atmoshpere and so this added pressure causes the air to warm. There is no moisture added to this sinking air...and as it warms the relative humidity drops.
1120. newt3d

I think the blog is just fine the way it is. Those that keep complaining about seem to be the ones out of touch. Blogs are such that if you don't like them you don't need to join them. Find another one that you like and stop complaining about this one, why you here if you don't like it?
1130. hulakai
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml

This is NHC's info on retired names.

Dolly 2008????
1131. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
I remember when I confused MJO w/ MOJO (from the Austin powers movies) What a ditz I can be -

gomex surfers: the last of Dolly - 2-3ft WSW filling in today at the right spots - presently knee high and clean - condtions shld be better late afternoon..get out if you can cause with Dolly gone...we're back to flat (PUN intended!!)


Had to throw in one last jab....lol.......
1132. Indaba
Tickertape

We are 17m. Just joined the site and pic now uploaded. Am Hurricane corespondent for Guadeloupe on Storm Carib - traveel up and down all year from BVI to Venezuela. Bounced around on FELIX an DEAN last year and will comment on anything we "experinece" on this site in future.
Where is this login thing that keeps popping up coming from?
1134. newt3d
Quoting 69Viking:
1120. newt3d

I think the blog is just fine the way it is. Those that keep complaining about seem to be the ones out of touch. Blogs are such that if you don't like them you don't need to join them. Find another one that you like and stop complaining about this one, why you here if you don't like it?


Don't get me wrong, I like the blog just the way it is as well. At the same time, I could see how people who are in storm-affected areas might get frustrated and annoyed with the rest of us. Aside from here, where would somebody go to get the most up-to-date data, with several quasi-expert opinions?
1135. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
Where is this login thing that keeps popping up coming from?


From Indaba's previous post...#1114.


Indaba...can you please delete post #1114...it's causing a pop-up window to come up when I hit refresh.

Thanks......
Good morning, bloggers. How is 97L fairing. Haven't really taken a look at the tropics, yet. Any new info on what's going on? I see Dolly is giving Texas a taste of what happens in a hurricane. I turned on the news this morning and the first thing I saw was a woman complainig about no power for 24 hours. Wow. I remember being without power for about three weeks after Katrina. Where are the generaters? LOL. Well, sorry to bash but it just seems funny and kinda makes me boil. I'm not mean, but I guess I've been through worse.
Has anyone seen any recent video or pics of the damage in Texas? Helicopter video? Everything I can find is from yesterday. Thanks.
1138. surfmom
extreme, I keep getting that too???

Also getting some thunder -- hope it clears out - got some office work to do for "el Captaino" and then I wanted to get some waves ( I am so exhausted 3 days in a row -- got to go for it though)
1139. Indaba
Sorry about the post - it is fact for a very high quality sat pic and unfortunately it requires a user name ID. How do I delete the earlier?


1132. Indaba 2:30 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Tickertape

We are 17m. Just joined the site and pic now uploaded. Am Hurricane corespondent for Guadeloupe on Storm Carib - traveel up and down all year from BVI to Venezuela. Bounced around on FELIX an DEAN last year and will comment on anything we "experinece" on this site in future.

Very nice! Thank you for being here! Sounds very exciting but I would probably get seasick in those rough seas. lol
1141. IKE
Indaba....

Hit modify comment.....it may take 2 or 3 times to get to the correct screen....then delete it and click submit.
STOP QUOTING INANDBA!!! HIS PIC FORCES A LOGON SCREEN TO COME UP!!! VERY ANNOYING!!!
1115 Lakeshadow. thank you for the link. great info.
Morning folks (Been sitting here sipping my morning coffee....great conversation!)
1145. IKE
NEW BLOG!
morning surfmom....been 2 great days of surf that's for sure....now just gotta wait for the next swell!!
1147. Indaba
Thakns Ike - deleted now I hope. Trying to share a really good sat image with everyone! Some of the sites I use are user ID.
I remember when Storm was talking about the MJO last year, someone (can't remember if it was Storm or not) posted this link. It was interesting and helpful.

Link
if we get past this page maybe the pop up will stop, especially since it has now be quoted.
those who quoted Idaba also need to delete their posts to get the pop up to stop.
1151. SamTeam
1097. Corax23 9:01 AM CDT on July 24, 2008

Since you think so little of the blog & think we are such a mess; go play in another sand box, we happen to like this one.

Regarding your statement about knowledge of the Lone Star State, you are correct, most people aren't familiar with areas other than the Met areas, but that's not reason to be critical. Not eveyone is lucky enough to be born and raised in God's Country.
mornin baja
come on sam we all know you guys are just the water break for the great state of Oklahoma. lol