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Hurricane Danny Weakens; Tropical Depression Kilo Struggles

By: Bob Henson 9:43 PM GMT on August 22, 2015

It’s been a challenging 24 hours for the two named tropical cyclones closest to North America, one in the Atlantic and one in the Central Pacific. After surging to Category 3 strength on Friday, Hurricane Danny has weakened almost as quickly, as wind shear and dry air chip away at its integrity. As of 5:00 pm EDT, Danny was located near 15.8°N, 53.3°W, or about 570 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Danny remains a very small hurricane: hurricane-force winds extend up to 10 miles and tropical-storm-force winds up to 60 miles from Danny’s center, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

WIth top sustained winds now down to 75 mph (minimal Category 1 strength), Danny was continuing its steady west-northwest track at a slightly speedier pace of about 14 mph. Danny’s current bearing will take it into the northernmost Antilles by Monday, and tropical storm watches have been hoisted for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. Although no watches are yet in effect, Puerto Rico could experience tropical storm conditions by Tuesday. (A watch means that tropical storm conditions are possibe within the next 48 hours.)


Figure 1. A visible image of Hurricane Danny from NOAA’s GOES-Floater satellite, collected at 2045 GMT (4:45 pm EDT) on Saturday, August 22. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Vertical wind shear over Danny is now around 20 knots (23 mph), and even larger value above 30 knots lie ahead in Danny’s path over the next day or two. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS


Danny has encountered increasing vertical wind shear and dry, dusty air since Friday, and these factors are taking an obvious toll on the hurricane. The well-defined eye and eyewall that Danny boasted for a time on Friday are long gone. Spiral banding has largely dissipated around Danny, and the central core of convection is much more fragmented and asymmetric, as upper-level westerlies push showers and thunderstorms east from Danny’s center. Data from an Air Force hurricane-hunter aircraft that surveyed Danny on Saturday afternoon provided further evidence that Danny is going downhill, with maximum flight-level winds peaking at only 61 knots (70 mph), just below hurricane strength, at 1821 GMT (2:21 pm EDT). Danny’s decline is echoed in the 5:00 pm EDT outlook from the NHC (see Figure 3), which brings Danny down to tropical-storm strength on Saturday night. Both upward and downward swings in intensity can be especially large and rapid with small hurricanes like Danny.



Figure 3. The NHC’s outlook for Hurricane Danny as of 5:00 pm EDT Saturday.

Could Danny get a new lease on life?
Danny’s weakening is a very confident forecast for the next couple of days: both statistical and dynamical models agree that Danny should be a mid-range tropical storm at best by the time it approaches Puerto Rico on Tuesday. The 1200 GMT run of the HWRF model, one of the best for short-term intensity change, weakens Danny to a tropical depression by Monday. Given Danny’s small size, it’s entirely possible Danny could be little more than a tropical wave by then.

The longer-range outlook for Danny has a bit more uncertainty, as long-range outlooks so often do. Track models continue to bring Danny or its remnants very close to Puerto Rico and Hispanola, though perhaps staying just north of the islands. Rains from Danny would be more than welcome over these drought-stricken islands, but only a small difference in track angle at this point could make a big difference in the outcome. Given Danny’s small size, it might be able to avoid the detrimental effect of the islands’ mountainous terrain if its track is on the north side of the model solutions, consistent with the 1200 GMT run of the GFDL model. There still might not be much left of Danny at that point, but if a reasonable circulation does persist, large-scale conditions could support some restrengthening. Sea-surface temperatures will be very warm (around 29°C or 84°F), and an upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over the western North Atlantic, keeping Danny or its remnants rolling westward with the potential for relatively low wind shear. Further down the line, any revitalizated version of Danny would face an upper-level trough predicted to dig into the southeast United States. If the models are correct, the resulting southwesterly flow across Florida would most likely force a recurvature of Danny around the middle of next week. Given the very warm waters and deep oceanic heat content over the Bahamas, any potential tropical cyclone bears watching, but at present it does not appear that Danny will pose a major threat to the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. The 1200 GMT run of the GFS model on Saturday, August 22, valid at 1200 GMT Thursday, August 27, depicts an upper-level trough across the southeast United States at the 200-mb level (about 40,000 feet high). If this trough intensifies and shifts east as forecast, it would likely steer Danny or its remnants away from the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 5. Large zones of dry, dusty Saharan air (yellow and orange areas) ontinue to prevail across the Atlantic subtropics, although Hurricane Danny and a large tropical wave to its east have made inroads into the dry air. Image credit: University of Wisconsin/CIMMS and NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The Cape Verde wave train--which normally peaks from late August to late September--is now in high gear, with multiple large easterly waves developing over Africa and rolling into the eastern tropical Atlantic. One such wave, called out in the 4:00 pm EDT tropical discussion from NHC, is located near 18°N, 28°W, moving west at about 20 mph. Convection blossomed around this wave on Friday night, then subsided on Friday, a typical sequence for developing tropical cyclones. The wave is embedded in a large swath of moisture, boding well for its development, although SSTs of around 26-27°C (79-81°F) are only modestly supportive. A strengthening upper-level ridge across the subtropical Atlantic should keep this wave scooting westward for several days, at which point models suggest a break in the ridge could allow it to move northward. As of 2:00 pm EDT Saturday, NHC was giving the wave 30% odds of developing into a depression by Monday and 60% odds by Thursday. Another healthy wave is now approaching the African west coast at a somewhat lower latitude, which may give it a better chance of traversing the deep Atlantic tropics. NHC gives this wave 10% odds of development by Monday and 30% odds by Thursday.

In the Northwest Atlantic, Invest 97L, a cluster of storms associated with a weakening upper low and frontal zone, is nearly devoid of convection, and models show little inclination to develop 97L into a tropical or subtropical storm over the next several days.

Slow going for Kilo, but Hawaii still a possible target
Residents of Hawaii should keep their guard up despite the laggard development of Tropical Depression Kilo. Briefly a tropical storm, Kilo was downgraded on Friday night as its large area of westward-moving showers and thunderstorms (convection) outran the low-level circulation. This outcome is somewhat surprisingly, since vertical wind shear has been quite low near Kilo (10 knots or less). Infrared satellite loops over the last few hours show Kilo developing a large core of strong convection, although still strongly sheared from the east, suggesting that more than one low-level center of circulation may be present. An Air Force reconnaissance flight found maximum surface winds of only 26 knots (30 mph) at around 1800 GMT Saturday.


Figure 6. Infrared image of Tropical Depression Kilo, collected from the GOES-Floater satellite at 2000 GMT (4:00 pm EDT) on Saturday, August 22. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 7. The outlook for Kilo from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center as of 11:00 am HST (5:00 pm EDT) Saturday, August 22.


Forecast models agree that Kilo will eventually organize and begin a northwestward trek. An upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over Kilo about 2-3 days from now, which will slow its movement and support its intensification (assuming it organizes as expected). Thereafter, the upper-level steering currents become somewhat chaotic, although the most likely outcome is that westerlies north of Hawaii would steer Kilo in the general direction of the western Hawaiian islands for at least a period of time. The high-resolution HWRF and GFDL models have consistently projected a powerful hurricane within striking distance of Kauai around the middle of next week, although the timeline has been shunted back due to the predicted weak steering currents in the 3-to-5-day period. Longer-range global models are generally pulling Kilo back to the northwest before it might reach the islands, with the exception of the ECMWF model, which is closer to the HWRF and GFDL tracks. Statistical model guidance, which is generally the best with intensity in the 3- to 5-day period, is less aggressive on strengthening Kilo than the HWRF and GFDL models. The 11:00 am EDT outlook from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) calls for Kilo to be an intensifying Category 1 hurricane well southwest of Kauai by Thursday. With the upper-level prognosis cloudy and Kilo itself less organized than expected at this point, the outcome is highly uncertain, but the high potential risk to Hawaii still calls for vigilance in monitoring Kilo.

West of Kilo, Tropical Depression Loke became the fifth named storm in the Central Pacific on Friday. Eric Blake (NHC) noted on Twitter that this is the largest number of tropical storms assigned names in the Central Pacific since modern records began, beating the record of four (Akona, Hana, Ema, and Iwa) set in 1982 (which, like 2015, was the year of the onset of a major El Niño event). These numbers do not reflect the total number of tropical cyclones affecting the basin, since other named storms move into the Central Pacific from the Northeast Pacific. This brings another record to the fore: Loke is the seventh named storm to either form or pass through the Central Pacific this year, well above the previous record of five set in 1982, 1994, and 2013, as tweeted by Phil Klotbach (Colorado State University). Loke should have little impact outside the record books: as it moves slowly northward over progressively cooler waters, it is projected to regain only minimal tropical-storm strength over the next five days.


Goni heading toward Japan, leaving 10 dead in Philippines
After giving the northernmost Phillipines a stronger sideswipe than expected, Typhoon Goni is now heading north-northeast toward Japan. Goni embarked on a very sharp but very slow recurvature on Friday, taking a 90-degree turn from west to north just north of the Philippine island of Luzon. The island was on the weaker left-hand side of Goni, but the typhoon’s large shield of heavy rain extended over the northern reaches of the island for several days, triggering mudslides and flooding. At least 10 deaths were reported, and some locations received more than a foot of rain, according to weather.com’s Nick Wiltgen. More than 5,000 people were reportedly evacuated during the storm.

Now heading north-northeast, Goni is down to Category 1 strength, with top sustained 1-minute winds of 90 mph as of 1800 GMT Saturday. Wind shear will be light for at least the next couple of days over Goni as the typhoon passes over the warm Kuroshio Current (the Pacific’s analogue to the Gulf Stream). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects that Goni will reintensify to Category 3 strength by early Monday local time as it passes near Japan’s small southernmost islands. Though weakening as it moves further north, Goni could still strike the western part of Kyushu as a minimal typhoon. Further to the northeast, Category 1 Typhoon Atsani--also down to 90-mph sustained winds--will continue to weaken as it moves northeast over open water.

Jeff Masters will be back with our next update on Sunday.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. sar2401
Quoting 995. Hurricanes101:



That is 98L
I know. That's what I wrote. You kind of missed my point though.


Danny
Yup, it's late August.




1004. Gearsts
Quoting 1002. JrWeathermanFL:



Danny
Center is not moving as much atmosphere very shallow now.
Quoting 981. sunlinepr:

Shear / exposing its COC. Hope it holds some moisture for us...



Doubt it. From the looks of this loop there won't be any convection left by the time tonight's dinner bell rings.
1006. sar2401
Quoting 989. wunderkidcayman:

btw when is next recon

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 22 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DANNY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/2000Z A. 23/2330Z
B. NOAA3 0504A DANNY B. AFXXX 0604A DANNY
C. 23/1800Z C. 23/2130Z
D. 16.4N 57.7 D. 16.6N 58.7W
E. 23/1930Z TO 23/2300Z E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 73
A. 24/0800Z A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA3 0704A DANNY B. AFXXX 0804A DANNY
C. 24/0600Z C. 24/1020Z
D. 16.9N 60.0W D. 17.2N 61.3
E. 24/0730Z TO 24/1000Z E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

Link
Realistically, say Danny moves south of PR and Hispanola, to the lower shear, higher PW airmass. What, if any, implications could that make on the future track of him in terms of the U.S.? Would forecasted trough over the southeast/northern Gulf/FL be strong enough to pull a shallower Danny northward to recurve east of the U.S. seaboard, or cause it to recurve over the eastern Gulf over FL, or just keep it pushing westward? I know it's quite a ways out in time, but worth pondering, I guess.
Quoting 966. sar2401:

All that blowoff to the northeast is not a good sign though. Danny will have to hold on extra tight now.


Now you're Anthropomorphizing !! ;-)
Quoting 1005. HurriHistory:


Doubt it. From the looks of this loop there won't be any convection left by the time tonight's dinner bell rings.


First time I've seen the LLCOC look in a weakened state. Conditions appear to be dealing the death blow. This is instant replay from yesterday, just hours earlier. Has fought the good fight and cleared the way for an unexpected season.


3. Another tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for
development while this disturbance moves generally westward over
the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

down to %0 and 20%
2. Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low
pressure system located about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands has become better defined since yesterday. Shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with this low has also become
better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
before mid-week while the wave moves quickly westward at around 20
mph. By late this week, atmospheric conditions are expected to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

invest 98L
1012. sar2401
Quoting 980. win1gamegiantsplease:



Currently enrolled in an advanced vector calculus course, not a met major but I'll be having loads of fun. Pullbacks, gradients, orbitals, oh my!
When it got to the point I couldn't even understand the course outline, I figured it was time for a change. Strangely enough, stat made perfect sense to me. They were the only math courses I ever get A's in. Everything else beyond algebra is a complete mystery to me. :-)
Quoting 991. Camerooski:

The NHC upgrade Invest 98-l to 70%/80% and it seems that they brought the 5-day track a bit more to the south with less of a curve. I'm sure watching this from FLA

I don't believe there is a track out on 98L yet it is not designated as a cyclone.
1014. JRRP
98L more south in this run
1015. sar2401
Quoting 1008. DogtownMex:



Now you're Anthropomorphizing !! ;-)
LOL. Sometimes, you just have to go with the flow. :-)
1016. sar2401
Quoting 1007. ecflweatherfan:

Realistically, say Danny moves south of PR and Hispanola, to the lower shear, higher PW airmass. What, if any, implications could that make on the future track of him in terms of the U.S.? Would forecasted trough over the southeast/northern Gulf/FL be strong enough to pull a shallower Danny northward to recurve east of the U.S. seaboard, or cause it to recurve over the eastern Gulf over FL, or just keep it pushing westward? I know it's quite a ways out in time, but worth pondering, I guess.
Start pondering if Danny is not dead by noon Wednesday. If it's not, then it will be a real crapshoot.
Quoting 1012. sar2401:

When it got to the point I couldn't even understand the course outline, I figured it was time for a change. Strangely enough, stat made perfect sense to me. They were the only math courses I ever get A's in. Everything else beyond algebra is a complete mystery to me. :-)


I struggled a little with concepts at first but stuck to my guns, I could probably tutor Calc I-III now. Just took plenty of practice. It's the last math class I'll have to take (as an undergrad anyway), nearing the end. Been in college this entire decade if community college counts...I had harder high school classes than some of that.
Quoting 1005. HurriHistory:


Doubt it. From the looks of this loop there won't be any convection left by the time tonight's dinner bell rings.

That is too bad for the islands desperately needed the rain.
Looks like Danny just spit out his LLC to the SW!
1020. MahFL
Towers going up closer to the center :

1021. MahFL
Quoting 1019. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks like Danny just spit out his LLC to the SW!


No, the thunderstorms went NE.
1022. sar2401
Quoting 1009. DeepSeaRising:



First time I've seen the LLCOC look in a weakened state. Conditions appear to be dealing the death blow. This is instant replay from yesterday, just hours earlier. Has fought the good fight and cleared the way for an unexpected season.
The COC is outrunning the convection. It will probably rebuild some again by the time it gets to the Islands, but each time, it will look worse and worse. Danny has been able to withstand some punches, but not a continuous beating.
1023. Chevito
Quoting 1020. MahFL:

Towers going up closer to the center :


Danny's almost dead...
Quoting 1020. MahFL:

Towers going up closer to the center :



And getting sheared away to the NE.
1025. Grothar
Even this model has shifted a little to the left on the ones taking the northward curve.

1026. MahFL
Danny's center only in 20 kts of shear now :



However improbable, baha won't like this GFDL ensemble cycle



Quoting 1016. sar2401:

Start pondering if Danny is not dead by noon Wednesday. If it's not, then it will be a real crapshoot.


And it very well could be. It will still be a vigorous tropical wave at that. I have learned to never count a storm out until it is either too far inland or so far north and stuck in strong westerlies that there is virtually zero chance of redevelopment. I know one of the many members of the GFS (12z) has the remnant of Danny moving west as a Twave, then lifting sharply NNE, then NE over the western Atlantic closing off again as a formidable cyclone well east of the eastern seaboard.
1030. JRRP
1031. Drakoen
Quoting 1027. nrtiwlnvragn:

However improbable, baha won't like this GFDL ensemble cycle






GFDL: Where there's a will there's a way.
1032. sar2401
Quoting 1017. win1gamegiantsplease:



I struggled a little with concepts at first but stuck to my guns, I could probably tutor Calc I-III now. Just took plenty of practice. It's the last math class I'll have to take (as an undergrad anyway), nearing the end. Been in college this entire decade if community college counts...I had harder high school classes than some of that.
It only took me eight years to get my degree, four of which were part time in a community college. With a wife and two kids, full-time classes were pretty much out of the question. My last two semesters I went full time but only because I needed the grades if I ever hoped to get into grad school. I was very lucky to be doing this in California in the 70's. Community college was almost free and the state university wasn't much more. My whole undergrad degree probably cost me $2,000 including books. I feel sorry for kids (and their parents) trying to pay for college now.
Quoting 1026. MahFL:

Danny's center only in 20 kts of shear now :





"Only"?

Looks like some type of storm system over South Florida on the 30th of August.
1035. Sandcat
So what is on the horizon this next week? More of watching the previews without getting a show?
Convection now pushing towards Danny's LLCOC
just like it did yesterday

98L soon to become TD5

2. Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low
pressure system located about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands has become better defined since yesterday. Shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with this low has also become
better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
before mid-week while the wave moves quickly westward at around 20
mph. By late this week, atmospheric conditions are expected to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

1037. MahFL
Quoting 1033. TropicalAnalystwx13:


"Only"?


20 is better than 30.
If that naked swirl is the guts of Danny it is headed almost due West. If that continues, his forecast track is way off. If he continues on a West path there is still a wall of shear but a little more available moisture. Not that it makes a difference at this point except a lesser amount of land interaction down the road.
It's over.
1040. sar2401
Quoting 1026. MahFL:

Danny's center only in 20 kts of shear now :




Only? 20 knots of shear is significant. Combine that with dry air and strong trade winds, and Danny has a rough row to hoe.
Cirrus is only what we will get. So sad!!
Invest 98L looks great,and seems to be gradually organizing.
Euro 98L near Bahamas.
1044. sar2401
Quoting 1035. Sandcat:

So what is on the horizon this next week? More of watching the previews without getting a show?
Yes. Some people will be fixated on the last remaining pieces of Danny while others will be excited about the next big storm, the future Erica. Late August is like that. :-)
I think Danny will manage to hold on tonight to give some much needed rains to the islands. His LLC became exposed yesterday but then managed to fire off intense convection overnight. He should start going over some 29C water at around 59W:



Then tonight the approach to Dmax/the atmosphere cooling should help him fire more convection despite dry air and wind shear. He should produce some welcome rains for the islands and looks like some rain is already starting to the west of him. He'll likely weaken to a tropical depression by the time he gets to the islands and produce tropical storm force gusts. Unless of course he puts on a good show tonight.
1046. sar2401
Quoting 1043. unknowncomic:

Euro 98L near Bahamas.

A 1011 mb low doesn't look too threatening though.
Quoting 1044. sar2401:

Yes. Some people will be fixated on the last remaining pieces of Danny while others will be excited about the next big storm, the future Erica. Late August is like that. :-)


I usually fixate on anything that even remotely looks like it is spinning.
1048. Grothar
Why is the wave near Africa being lower it chances? I thought it was the one with the best chance to develop, after Danny and 98L took SAL of the way.
1050. Grothar
We should be OK. It looks like Kilroy is keep his "eyes" on Hispaniola

1051. Patrap
The Air Card failed so I had to drag out a 30 ft long ethernet net cord.

Redundancy Werkin it'

: }

1052. Gearsts
Yep chance for rain here are meh. Danny COC moving sw thanks to our friend the shear and the fast trade winds.
Link
Decoupling has happened as I speculated it could 5 days ago. Again, it was speculation cause the forecast at that time was for Danny to be a Cat 2 by Friday with shear developing to drop it to Cat 1 by Today. Danny did get stronger than anticipated but still had it a hurricane by last Thursday night.
Right now, Danny should be still a TS but 40mph by 5pm unless they find some 45Mph winds still. I still see Danny downgraded to a TD or open wave before 5pm Monday if not sooner.
98L again should be a TD by 11pm tonight or they might wait till visables come up Monday morning. Pressures are around 1008-1009mbs as of now. It's 90%circular...hard to tell if there is any WNW winds at the surface though. Expect 98L to be move W towards 15-17N and 60W by Weds evening.
Quoting 1048. Grothar:




Which ones are Danny and which ones are 98L :)
its always a problem with these storms lately if they dont die out because shear and being weak then they decide to recurve out to sea its like vodoo im done i cant even talk about it anymore might have a breakdown lol
1057. Gearsts
Quoting 1046. sar2401:

A 1011 mb low doesn't look too threatening though.
Probably because of this.

1059. Patrap
Danny thru 1416 UTC earlier.







I see Danny is a fighter but his toupee is flying off...
hey geys look whay happens too HI


1063. sar2401
Quoting 1029. ecflweatherfan:



And it very well could be. It will still be a vigorous tropical wave at that. I have learned to never count a storm out until it is either too far inland or so far north and stuck in strong westerlies that there is virtually zero chance of redevelopment. I know one of the many members of the GFS (12z) has the remnant of Danny moving west as a Twave, then lifting sharply NNE, then NE over the western Atlantic closing off again as a formidable cyclone well east of the eastern seaboard.
The current prediction is that Danny will be a 30 mph wave over Hispaniola by Wednesday. By Thursday, it's supposed to be a remnant low over Cuba. If it turns out Danny remains stronger than that, it's certainly possible there could be trouble in the Gulf or Atlantic. If it follows the forecast, there's virtually no chance of redevelopment. Did you watch Levi's video?
1064. sar2401
Quoting 1058. unknowncomic:

Probably because of this.


Little disagreement there between the ECMWF and the GFS. I'm disappointed in the ECMWF's performance with Danny. We'll see how it does with Erica.
Quoting 1040. sar2401:

Only? 20 knots of shear is significant. Combine that with dry air and strong trade winds, and Danny has a rough row to hoe.


The shear tendency in the area where Danny is traversing has fallen by 5 to 10 knots in the past 24 hours. Another 5 to 10 knots would mean game on again. Too soon to write it off as we have seen several times already.
1066. IDTH
Quoting 987. win1gamegiantsplease:

Maybe our second long tracking CV, thanks to Levi


Similar position albeit stronger (and a couple weeks further)


Isabel, that storm is probably the most beautiful storm i've seen in the Atlantic.
Quoting 1063. sar2401:

The current prediction is that Danny will be a 30 mph wave over Hispaniola by Wednesday. By Thursday, it's supposed to be a remnant low over Cuba. If it turns out Danny remains stronger than that, it's certainly possible there could be trouble in the Gulf or Atlantic. If it follows the forecast, there's virtually no chance of redevelopment. Did you watch Levi's video?

is there still hope for me getting a storm in miami?
Some people don't seem to understand that Danny has already passed the worst of the wind shear. Shear is now down from 30 knots to 20 knots. It's still going to struggle, but probably won't die. If it goes north of the islands like the newer runs are showing, we have a new game play. Just my two cents.
Quoting 1067. MiamiHeat305:


is there still hope for me getting a storm in miami?



There is a lot of time between now and Nov 30th :O)
1070. sar2401
Quoting 1049. allancalderini:

Why is the wave near Africa being lower it chances? I thought it was the one with the best chance to develop, after Danny and 98L took SAL of the way.
No, 98L was the one with best development chances. The other one is as far north as 98L but just came off Africa and already looks like a disorganized mess.


its this danny
Quoting 1068. reedzone:

Some people don't seem to understand that Danny has already passed the worst of the wind shear. Shear is now down from 30 knots to 20 knots. It's still going to struggle, but probably won't die. If it goes north of the islands like the newer runs are showing, we have a new game play. Just my two cents.

i like the way this guy thinks
Quoting 1067. MiamiHeat305:


is there still hope for me getting a storm in miami?


Hope? Sounds like the wrong choice of words to me
Quoting 1066. IDTH:


Isabel, that storm is probably the most beautiful storm i've seen in the Atlantic.


Izzie was a buzzsaw, and cancelled school for not much of anything where I lived at the time. But as a couple weeks shy of 12 year old no complaints.

Quoting 1032. sar2401:

It only took me eight years to get my degree, four of which were part time in a community college. With a wife and two kids, full-time classes were pretty much out of the question. My last two semesters I went full time but only because I needed the grades if I ever hoped to get into grad school. I was very lucky to be doing this in California in the 70's. Community college was almost free and the state university wasn't much more. My whole undergrad degree probably cost me $2,000 including books. I feel sorry for kids (and their parents) trying to pay for college now.


Yeah my loans aren't as large thanks to some family help but I'll be paying them for a year or ten.
Quoting 1071. hurricanes2018:



its this danny
No Likely Erika.
1076. FOREX
Quoting 1072. MiamiHeat305:


i like the way this guy thinks


this is the same guy that still thinks Le bron is coming back. Just kidding friend.
Quoting 1042. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Invest 98L looks great,and seems to be gradually organizing.


Decent spin...
Quoting 1071. hurricanes2018:



its this danny


No 98L
1079. FOREX
Danny looking pretty bad on rainbow the past few hours.
1080. sar2401
Quoting 1047. QueensWreath:



I usually fixate on anything that even remotely looks like it is spinning.

We went through eight days of that with 94L recently. I'm hoping we don't see a repeat.
1081. FOREX
Quoting 1078. kmanislander:



No 98L
Supposed to go OTS from that point right?
AL, 98, 2015082318, , BEST, 0, 137N, 367W, 30, 1008, LO,
Quoting 1065. kmanislander:



The shear tendency in the area where Danny is traversing has fallen by 5 to 10 knots in the past 24 hours. Another 5 to 10 knots would mean game on again. Too soon to write it off as we have seen several times already.


I can't shake the feeling that Danny is pulling a fast one on us. He not dead until that LLC disappears.



He could even slip south of the Islands into the NW Carribbean.
New 18Z data for Danny big model shift S and W most of the models show Danny passing S side of Hispaniola or hitting S Haiti and towards Jamaica and Cuba

I suspect a big shift S and W in forecast cone in next advisory
It looks as if Danny is going to either pass between Martinique and Guadeloupe or right over Martinique. It is still carrying a lot of rain and convection is closing in on the centre again from the North and East.

What's concerning is that 98L is highly favored by most models unlike Danny was, and is looking to take a very classic Cape Verde Hurricane track all the way past 60W. Models are differentiating between ridge and trough.
Quoting 1065. kmanislander:



The shear tendency in the area where Danny is traversing has fallen by 5 to 10 knots in the past 24 hours. Another 5 to 10 knots would mean game on again. Too soon to write it off as we have seen several times already.
Quoting 1084. Ricki13th:



I can't shake the feeling that Danny is pulling a fast one on us. He not dead until that LLC disappears.



He could even slip south of the Islands into the NW Carribbean.


Quite right
1089. SLU
Quoting 1066. IDTH:


Isabel, that storm is probably the most beautiful storm i've seen in the Atlantic.


The first category 5 hurricane I ever tracked. Very beautiful girl she was.
18z model intensity for Danny now completely look like crap, G models are nothing now, 12z were cat 3/4, now depression, safe to say he's done folks. time to focus on 98L
1091. Patrap
1092. FOREX
Quoting 1085. wunderkidcayman:

New 18Z data for Danny big model shift S and W most of the models show Danny passing S side of Hispaniola or hitting S Haiti and towards Jamaica and Cuba

I suspect a big shift S and W in forecast cone in next advisory


You think there will be anything left of him? He is really taking a beating right now on his west and SW side. Really evident on Rainbow.
Quoting 1078. kmanislander:



No 98L


Says right on the top of the image and everything.
Danny might make it past the door if he can get past those blow hards at the back of the bar and hold onto his toup at the same time.
1095. MahFL
Ha ha ha, Danny giving all his doubters the finger !

Quoting 1081. FOREX:

Supposed to go OTS from that point right?


Too soon to say. Many of the GFS ensemble runs have it out to sea but way too soon to bet on it.
Quoting 1095. MahFL:

Ha ha ha, Danny giving all his doubters the finger !




I was thinking that myself

LOL !!
1098. Patrap
1099. FOREX
Quoting 1090. TeleConnectSnow:

18z model intensity for Danny now completely look like crap, G models are nothing now, 12z were cat 3/4, now depression, safe to say he's done folks. time to focus on 98L
Doesn't surprise me looking at rainbow right now.
1100. IDTH
Is there a map for trade winds if so someone post a link to it please.
Quoting 1093. win1gamegiantsplease:



Says right on the top of the image and everything.



I know. Whatever.
Gotta be a typo


Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:07Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 04 in 2015
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 18:17:46Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°13'N 58°26'W (15.2167N 58.4333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,159m (10,364ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 6kts (~ 6.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the S (173°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 307° at 4kts (From the NW at ~ 4.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the SSE (160°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,163m (10,377ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,161m (10,371ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 14kts (~ 16.1mph) which was observed 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the N (355°) from the flight level center at 18:32:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 295° at 10kts (From the WNW at 12mph)
is Danny LLC still closed or has it open up?
1104. MahFL
Quoting 1067. MiamiHeat305:


is there still hope for me getting a storm in miami?


No, screaming shear from the SW will likely protect you.
Quoting 1103. Tazmanian:

is Danny LLC still closed or has it open up?


Closed
Quoting 1095. MahFL:

Ha ha ha, Danny giving all his doubters the finger !



Lmfao Danny is a rebel SMH...
LOL! mahFLA The Fightin Irish!
Quoting 1092. FOREX:



You think there will be anything left of him? He is really taking a beating right now on his west and SW side. Really evident on Rainbow.


Danny the new Rocky. Takes a licking and keeps on ticking :-)
Quoting 1086. kmanislander:

It looks as if Danny is going to either pass between Martinique and Guadeloupe or right over Martinique. It is still carrying a lot of rain and convection is closing in on the centre again from the North and East.




Quite right

You know if Danny can pull some more convection over it and survive long enough (which I think it will do) this could potentially take off again in the Caribbean

Shear is falling in the Caribbean N of 15N
SST are high + TC heat potentials are high
If as suggested by some of the models stay off land of PR and Hispaniola having no land interactions

The only inhibiting factor is the dry air but they could get resolved

Watch carefully people

Danny my be trying to fool you in thinking it's dead or soon to be

Just a few more hrs or maybe 24-36hrs of the harsh shear and he's in the clear IMO
Quoting 1106. MahFL:



Why do you ask stupid questions, Danny is a Tropical Storm, all tropical storms have a closed LLC.


you are aware that systems that are classified as Tropical storms officially can have their LLC open up when facing hostile conditions right?

The question from Taz was not stupid
Back later. Time to see if Tiger can win again !.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Hot and Dry!!!


slow down invest 98L before you hit tropical storm danny!!
1116. txjac
Quoting 1106. MahFL:



Why do you ask stupid questions, Danny is a Tropical Storm, all tropical storms have a closed LLC.


Wow, never say stupid question ...and Taz is usually on top of things , that was really unfair
I was accused of asking a stupid question a while back, tends to intimidate to ask another
Think about lurkers that are thinking of asking a question ..they wont when the see others say something like that
Quoting 1092. FOREX:



You think there will be anything left of him? He is really taking a beating right now on his west and SW side. Really evident on Rainbow.


Meh Danny got a beating yesterday and got back up today same beating up and he is already starting to get back up

Quoting 1095. MahFL:

Ha ha ha, Danny giving all his doubters the finger !



LMAO
What a chap
A bad arse rebel that's what he is lol

Quoting 1102. nrtiwlnvragn:

Gotta be a typo


Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:07Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 04 in 2015
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 18:17:46Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°13'N 58°26'W (15.2167N 58.4333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,159m (10,364ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 6kts (~ 6.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the S (173°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 307° at 4kts (From the NW at ~ 4.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the SSE (160°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,163m (10,377ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,161m (10,371ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 14kts (~ 16.1mph) which was observed 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the N (355°) from the flight level center at 18:32:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 295° at 10kts (From the WNW at 12mph)



Wait there is a recon flight out now?

Why didn't anyone say

Quoting 1103. Tazmanian:

is Danny LLC still closed or has it open up?


Closed and starting to get convection around its LLCOC

Quoting 1109. kmanislander:



Danny the new Rocky. Takes a licking and keeps on ticking :-)


You got that right
Danny aka Rocky

Quoting 1055. nrtiwlnvragn:



Which ones are Danny and which ones are 98L :)

1/2 are Danny, 1/2 are 98L..which ones are your choice LOL. To be honest, i dont really know


invest 98L AND MAYBE INVEST 99L soon and next tropical wave on land
Strangest lighting i have seen around 3 am here in Halfiax that knocked out power for 5-6 hours in dartmouth.It was heavy fog not even a breeze.None of it was the fork lighting i guess sheet lighting but the sky lit up in blueish and green colored.Usually you get rain or heavy downpours not 1 drop of rain.The thunder didn't occur for 2 hours after the light show began. Once the thunder did begin it didn't last for a a few seconds and stop it rumbled for 1 minute intervals on several different occasions.When the first days light began normally the birds are making noise like clockwork, not 1 peep came out.It was very strange watching this occur here.
Quoting 1119. hurricanes2018:

invest 98L AND MAYBE INVEST 99L soon and next tropical wave on land

Invest 98L I think is going to be the next big thing in the Atlantic. "99L" I think is going to stay out at sea and get sheared by the ULL currently seen spinning at 30N-45W (that ULL is forecast to dive southeast eventually toward "99L."
Quoting 1120. Mikeylikesthesite:

Strangest lighting i have seen around 3 am here in Halfiax that knocked out power for 5-6 hours in dartmouth.It was heavy fog not even a breeze.None of it was the fork lighting i guess sheet lighting but the sky lit up in blueish and green colored.Usually you get rain or heavy downpours not 1 drop of rain.The thunder didn't occur for 2 hours after the light show began. Once the thunder did begin it didn't last for a a few seconds and stop it rumbled for 1 minute intervals on several different occasions.When the first days light began normally the birds are making noise like clockwork, not 1 peep came out.It was very strange watching this occur here.


If you didn't get rain, all that means is that the cells moving through the area that produced the lightning didn't moved their heavy shafts over your region. That's quite common actually.
1123. syn627
.
http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/71 5/140/3b2.jpg
Quoting 1086. kmanislander:

It looks as if Danny is going to either pass between Martinique and Guadeloupe or right over Martinique. It is still carrying a lot of rain and convection is closing in on the centre again from the North and East.




Its the island of Dominica (Commonwealth of Dominica) that's really under threat...
It is also a bit disturbing since there is no official watch/ warning issued for Dominica.
Despite the following which seems to be putting Dominica in more or less the direct line of fire there have been no watches or warnings issued to date for the island:-
23rd August 2015- T.S. Danny- SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...15.6N 59.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

-At the current Latitude and based on Radar/ Current Satellite imagery the centre of Danny should be passing over or just north of Dominica- perhaps directly over the French dependency island of Marie Galante. Which is between Guadeloupe and Dominica. I do hope they have battened down the hatches on Marie Galante as well.
Here on the North East coast of Dominica shower activity has intensified as the bands from Danny continue to spiral in at our coast. Winds are picking up and the Ocean is definitely beginning to churn as I can hear it surging onshore from my residence which is not at all a usual occurrence.

May God continue to Bless us All!

1127. Xandtar
We're getting some really serious rain from this extended rain band from Danny here on Dominica, a taste of the rain to come tomorrow. I see that we're going to take a direct hit so if you don't see me posting the power is out again.