WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Cristina Hits Cat 4; Little Change to Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone Nanauk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2014

Hurricane Cristina walled off the dry air surrounding it and put on an impressive round of rapid intensification overnight, topping out as powerful Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and a central pressure estimated at 935 mb at 11 am EDT Thursday. Cristina is the second hurricane this year to reach major hurricane strength in the Eastern Pacific, setting a record for the earliest date of formation for the season's second major hurricane. The previous record was a full thirteen days later in the season: June 25, 2010, when Hurricane Darby reached Category 3 strength. The other major hurricane this year in the Eastern Pacific was Hurricane Amanda, which peaked as a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds at 15 UTC (10 am EST) May 25, becoming the strongest May hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. This year is also the first time there have been two Category 4 hurricanes before July 1 in the Eastern Pacific. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second Category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached that threshold on July 1. Reliable records for the basin go back to 1966.


Figure 1. Cristina near peak strength at 12:16 pm EDT June 12, 2014.

The usual formation date for the second hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season is July 14, so we are over a month ahead of usual for hurricanes in 2014. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, so we've already had half the usual number of major hurricanes for an entire season, with the typical August 24 peak of the season nearly two and a half months away. This year is shaping up to be an El Niño year, and El Niño conditions typically increase the sea surface temperatures and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from the Aqua satellite of Hurricane Cristina at 21 UTC Wednesday, June 11, 2014. At the time, Cristina was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Satellite loops show that Cristina has an impressive eye surrounded by an eyewall with very cold cloud tops. The eyewall is thinner on the northwest side of the eye, suggesting that wind shear of about 5 - 10 knots due to upper level winds out of the northwest is affecting the storm. There is still time for Cristina to potentially intensify into a Category 5 storm today, but increasing wind shear combined with decreasing sea surface temperatures will begin to weaken the storm on Friday and into the weekend. Cristina is headed away from Mexico, and no watches or warnings will be required.

Little change to Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Nanauk
Tropical Cyclone Nanauk continues steaming westwards across the Arabian Sea at 11 mph towards Oman. Nanauk is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), but has changed little in strength over the past two days, due to high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots, which is disrupting the circulation. Nanauk is expected to continue moving west-northwest towards Oman Thursday, but both the European and GFS models now predict that Nanauk will dissipate in the next two days. High wind shear associated with the advancing Southwest Monsoon is predicted to increase over Nanauk, allowing very dry air over the Middle East to penetrate deep into the storm's core and disrupt it. This would be very good news for Oman, which has suffered a number of deadly and costly tropical cyclone landfalls since 2002.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image from the Aqua satellite of Tropical Cyclone Nanauk (65 mph sustained winds) over the Arabian Sea taken at approximately 6:30 am EDT June 12, 2014. The coast of Oman can be seen at the left side of the image. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical cyclones rare in Oman
Tropical cyclones are quite rare in Oman, but have hit the nation unusually often in the past few years. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks database, only five have hit Oman at tropical storm strength or higher since accurate satellite data began in 1990, with three of those landfalls occurring since 2007:

Nov. 2, 2011: 40 mph tropical storm, Keila (14 killed)
June 4, 2010: 75 mph Category 1 hurricane, Tropical Cyclone Phet (24 killed)
June 6, 2007: 75 mph Category 1 hurricane, Tropical Cyclone Gonu (50 killed)
May 10, 2002: 40 mph tropical storm, the 2002 Oman cyclone (9 killed)
October 3, 1992: 45 mph tropical storm

Earlier historical landfall records indicated that the deadliest cyclone to affect Oman was a Category 1 storm that hit on June 13, 1977, killing 105 people.

Tropical Cyclones Gonu of 2007: Oman's Costliest Natural Disaster
The most expensive natural disaster in Oman's history was Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which hit the eastern tip of Oman as a Category 1 storm on June 6, 2007. Gonu is the first Category 4 or higher storm recorded in the Arabian Sea since the satellite era began in 1970. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Gonu's peak sustained winds at 165 mph, the strongest winds of any tropical cyclone they have ever rated in the northern Indian Ocean (second place: the 160 mph winds of the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone that killed 138,000 people.) Fortunately, dry air and wind shear knocked Gonu down to Category 1 strength before landfall, but the storm still killed 50 people and did $4.2 billion in damage (2007 USD) in Oman, with flash flooding causing most of the deaths and destruction. Gonu dropped heavy rainfall of up to 610 mm (24 inches) on Oman's east coast, which is six times higher than the annual rainfall in Oman of 100 mm (about 4".) In Iran, the cyclone caused 28 deaths and $216 million in damage (2007 USD).


Video 1. The Story About Cyclone Gonu video shows remarkable footage of why so many people died in Oman: they went out into the flood waters in their cars.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. The GFS model continues to predict that about 6 - 9 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there. However, the European model keeps the wind shear high over the Western Caribbean early next week, so any development in the region remains in doubt.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow, this is one tiny storm; it reminds me a lot of Andrew.

i remember when we saw the hot water in the GOM and how it ramped up storms........now we see it in the EPAC.....glad that both of these h-canes have been a fish event
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
606 am EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

Short term [tonight through saturday]...
weakening upper trough axis will slide east of the forecast area
overnight tonight. Any remaining convection this evening should be
confined to the far eastern zones. Another shortwave is forecast
to dig into the base of the broad eastern Continental U.S. Trough on Friday,
leading to an increase in afternoon and evening convection,
especially west of the Apalachicola River where highest pops are
expected. The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to transition
into a cutoff low by Saturday as heights rise over the Ohio
Valley. With the cutoff low situated over the northeastern Gulf
Coast, expect to see an enhancement of the typical seabreeze
convection for Saturday.
Given the expected coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, high temps will likely be at or a
little below normal for Friday and Saturday.



Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
wet scenario to continue into extended period. The larger scale
pattern shows a mid level trough moving into the lower MS valley
with this feature developing into a low over MS on Sat. A surface
ridge will remain south of the area through the period. This will
increase onshore (mainly sw) flow across Gulf region. The
approaching low will most likely stall out bringing cloud cover
and rain Friday night until Tuesday with the support of an upper
level trough. This pattern is indicative of higher than typical
rain chances for the region.
By Wednesday high pressure will
return bringing a drier weather pattern.
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
on the home front we should see a high of 101 today....this will be our 9th day this month over 100 degrees....today will not add to our list of 4 records broken this month....tomorrow has a 20 percent chance of rain and temps about at 99....average this time of year....mid 90's....tired of the heat already......
Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters!
Christina is one amazing storm...
Thanks Doc.
Three named storms so far in the East Pacific, and two are major hurricanes . Fast start there .
Thanks Dr. Christina is quite a sight this morning and a very impressive burst over the last 24 hours.  Warm sst's and relaxing sheer over a favorable environment will do that.  Thankfully it was not headed inland toward a populated region when this occurred.  With favorable MJO conditions in the E-Pac coming later in the month, we might see a few more high Cat E-Pac storms between now and August; the Pacific ITCZ has been very active this season so far.
Quoting ZacWeatherKidUK:
Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters!
Christina is one amazing storm...

Yeah.
She's pretty.
And she has very nice eyes.
Probably has a bad attitude, though.
I can usually tell…..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
17:30 PM IST June 12 2014
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm Nanauk over east central and adjoining west central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards with a speed about 8 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 18.3N 63.9E, about 940 km west southwest of Mumbai, 740 km west southwest of Veraval and 580 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

The system would weaken gradually after 12 hours as it would enter into relatively colder sea and experience dry air entrapment and high vertical wind shear.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 12.5N to 21.0N and 60.0E to 68.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -88C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots . The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 988 hPa.

The system is entering into colder sea with lower ocean heat content. It is already experiencing high wind shear (25-30 knots), and further there will be dry air entrapment after 12 hours. As a result the cyclone would start weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.7N 63.1E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 19.1N 62.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 19.8N 60.8E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 20.6N 59.6E - 25 knots (Depression)
14. Ed22
Good morning everyone, this hurricane to behold a category 4 in less than 12 hours that's amazing. That's what rapid intensification is all about at the right place, at the right time. Hurricane could get to category five status today or this evening, the ownly thing right now could weaken this powerful hurricane Cristina high wind shear, cooler water and dir air thank God this moving away from land and will continue moving away; the tropical Atlantic remains quiet for a next day.
El Paso, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 8:51 AM MDT on June 12, 2014
Partly Cloudy
88 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 17%
Dew Point: 37 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 21 mph
Pressure: 30.03 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

Nice Humidity though.....
Good morning everyone. A nice round of storms rolled through again last night. A LOT of lightning, then about an hour of nice steady rain. I'd say nearly an inch. Anyway, 80% again today. Have fun out there folks.


Don't you hate it when the weatherman gets it wrong? Apparently, so does Kim Jong Un.

Okay...the "supreme" leader of NK has decided to lecture people on their job. Whatever floats his (sinking) boat.
Cristina has intensified 65 kt (75 mph) in the past 24 hours (15z June 11 to 15z June 12) while the pressure has fallen 54 millibars. Right up there with Amanda's RI episode, when its winds increased 70kt (80 mph) from 75 mph to 155 mph and the pressure fell 57 millibars from 989mb to 932mb.



Amanda's graph:

It appears over the past hour or so that Cristina's convection has warmed somewhat. This could be an indication that Cristina has peaked and has since leveled off, or even weakened slightly. If this is the case, then Cristina is likely done intensifying and won't get any stronger.
Schedule

The Blue Angels just buzzed by my house, and Mom got a video of them flying over downtown Nashville. They are in town for the Great Tennessee Air Show down in Smyrna, TN from June 14-15.

Google Image in case anyone hasn't heard of these pilots:

Thanks Doc
Nice Humidity though.....



that is our saving grace
A really pretty fish IMO

Quoting 21. Astrometeor:
Schedule

The Blue Angels just buzzed by my house, and Mom got a video of them flying over downtown Nashville. They are in town for the Great Tennessee Air Show down in Smyrna, TN from June 14-15.



The Blue Angels buzzed my house in Pensacola this morning when they left to head your directions! I was in the yard picking blueberries. We get a free show every week when they practice!
Going through this morning's images, it appears that Cristina peaked at 135 knots (155 mph) at 1145z. Since that time, the eye has cooled slightly and eyewall convection has warmed slightly. 130kt is good estimate, though weakening may begin soon.

Quoting TylerStanfield:
It appears over the past hour or so that Cristina's convection has warmed somewhat. This could be an indication that Cristina has peaked and has since leveled off, or even weakened slightly. If this is the case, then Cristina is likely done intensifying and won't get any stronger.


I agree. Look at the cloud pattern on her west wide. Dry air may be knocking at her doorstep again. I believe we won't see any more strengthening out of Cristina, but she has been very impressive nonetheless.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Afternoon all. It's pouring again. This time it looks like it will last for a while.

Quoting 21. Astrometeor:

Schedule

The Blue Angels just buzzed by my house, and Mom got a video of them flying over downtown Nashville. They are in town for the Great Tennessee Air Show down in Smyrna, TN from June 14-15.

Google Image in case anyone hasn't heard of these pilots:



I hope they come back to san francisco. nothing compares to seeing them in person flying around a gigantic orange bridge :)
ACE at EPAC is going up rapidly being so early in the season. This suggests it may surpass the 100 units if things develop as is expected with the El Nino factor. The present ACE is 24.385.

Link
Two Cat 4's in the EPAC this early. Must be a lot of energy there.



34. JRRP
mmm interesting..

12Z GFS is still having convective feedback errors on day 6-7. You can clearly see the feedback error at 147hr-150hr thus forming a broad low from the Error. Also since it's day 6-7 (again) this is why nothing is noted thru 5 days.
Cristina is the 4th strongest ever recorded in June. Behind Hurricanes Ava, Celia and Carlotta.
The next storm brewing in the lower right??



Quoting 32. Grothar:

Two Cat 4's in the EPAC this early. Must be a lot of energy there.






Very juicy lucy
Quoting 25. PensacolaBuoy:



The Blue Angels buzzed my house in Pensacola this morning when they left to head your directions! I was in the yard picking blueberries. We get a free show every week when they practice!




I'm looking forward to them returning for the air show over the water July 12th!
Quoting 37. Grothar:

The next storm brewing in the lower right??




As you say master!
Quoting 34. JRRP:

mmm interesting..


???
So far 12Z GFS has produced a much more reasonable approach with the W Carib system
A weak sheared system maybe a TD or weak TS moving slowly N bound
This falls in line with the NAVGEM that shows a weak system in the W Carib

12Z GFS not complete yet
Quoting 34. JRRP:

mmm interesting..



That level of El Nino would make for a wet winter in Florida.
The island that Cristina is heading towards is Socorro Island, with a population of 45 (according to Wikipedia). Apparently, due to its popular destination as a scuba location, there are many vessels offshore that "house" the divers. Crossing fingers that Cristina has peaked and is weakening.

This island was also hit by Hurricane Linda back in 1997.
Quoting 34. JRRP:

mmm interesting..




Why am I not one bit surprised at all
47. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
???

?¿
12Z NAVGEM showing same situation as the last few runs
Quoting scottsvb:
12Z GFS is still having convective feedback errors on day 6-7. You can clearly see the feedback error at 147hr-150hr thus forming a broad low from the Error. Also since it's day 6-7 (again) this is why nothing is noted thru 5 days.


To support this idea, take note how the GFS contentiously is shifting the time of formation so that it's perennially 144-150 hours in advance. Not only that, I can't seem to find what triggers this development. It literally pops out of nowhere from central America and has zilch model support from the ECMWF, CMC, etc.
If we can nudge the water temps off of Soo Cal into the Mid 70's with help from El Nino, it's possible to get a decaying tropical system in here to provide some much needed rain. One can only hope.

Quoting 48. nrtiwlnvragn:

Tomorrow is Friday the 13th and a full moon. That won't happen again until 2049

Sweet I may miss the moon though
Quoting 51. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Celia peaked at 145 mph/935mb though.


Celia in 2010 peaked at 160mph, no?
Quoting 51. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Celia peaked at 145 mph/935mb though.


Ava peaked at 160 mph/915mb. Carlotta peaked at 155 mph/932 mb.

Celia peaked at 160 mph/921mb (estimated) in June 25th, 2010.

Quoting 46. wunderkidcayman:



Why am I not one bit surprised at all


Maybe because El Nino modeling is worse than the GFS past 5 days out?
Quoting 45. LongIslandBeaches:

The island that Cristina is heading towards is Socorro Island, with a population of 45 (according to Wikipedia). Apparently, due to its popular destination as a scuba location, there are many vessels offshore that "house" the divers. Crossing fingers that Cristina has peaked and is weakening.

This island was also hit by Hurricane Linda back in 1997.
Indeed, you are correct. Then some models had Linda coming to Soo Cal in a much weakened state...which never came to fruition.
Quoting 56. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Maybe because El Nino modeling is worse than the GFS past 5 days out?

LOL
(Sarcasm flag)
No
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Celia peaked at 145 mph/935mb though.


Nope. Celia peaked at 160mph with a 921mb pressure.
Sunny to partly sunny. Unusually warm for June in Porto Alegre with a high around 85ºF/ 29ºC in the afternoon. Windy.
Now here in Porto Alegre we already have 85,2ºF/29,6ºC. Windy
Very strong still
ever recorded? it isnt until recent that we really knew there was hurricane season in the epac. ever? i think it refers to the last 50yrs
Quoting 44. fmbill:


That level of El Nino would make for a wet winter in Florida.


I for one would like an El Nino on par with 1997....I can put up with the flooding to get the lakes full. Strong El Ninos plays out to 80% chance of double rain at my location. Weak/Moderate ones are a crapshoot for additional rainfall.
mmm interesting..


very.....the model means looks like we won't see an el nino until august.....and no runs are showing a super el nino...with the means coming in at a moderate event
Quoting 61. Gearsts:

Very strong still

Bring it on!

Very strong still


but it needs a second wave to give it a push
Either way still lots of rain



Quoting islander101010:
ever recorded? it isnt until recent that we really knew there was hurricane season in the epac. ever? i think it refers to the last 50yrs


The term "ever recorded" means as far back as record keeping goes, so yes the last 65 years when record keeping began in 1949.
Quoting 62. islander101010:

ever recorded? it isnt until recent that we really knew there was hurricane season in the epac. ever? i think it refers to the last 50yrs

For starters, look at Dr. Masters' write-up. It was indicated in the text the range of dates the records were based on:
"Reliable records for the basin go back to 1966. "

Also, what exactly do you mean that we didn't know that there was a E. Pacific hurricane season until recently?

To support this idea, take note how the GFS contentiously is shifting the time of formation so that it's perennially 144-150 hours in advance. Not only that, I can't seem to find what triggers this development. It literally pops out of nowhere from central America and has zilch model support from the ECMWF, CMC, etc.


not only that....but there has been nothing else to support it either in the way of shear etc.......
72. JRRP
Quoting ricderr:
mmm interesting..


very.....the model means looks like we won't see an el nino until august.....and no runs are showing a super el nino...with the means coming in at a moderate event

at least
CMC at 5 days out.......all can rest quietly

Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:

So far 12Z GFS has produced a much more reasonable approach with the W Carib system
A weak sheared system maybe a TD or weak TS moving slowly N bound
This falls in line with the NAVGEM that shows a weak system in the W Carib

12Z GFS not complete yet
I would not bet the house or the kid's college funds on it happening, but if I got high odds....a few bucks could go on a bet.
ECMWF at 5 days says don't worry....be happy

Quoting 61. Gearsts:

Very strong still


Still weaker than what it was last month and month before
Quoting pablosyn:
Sunny to partly sunny. Unusually warm for June in Porto Alegre with a high around 85ºF/ 29ºC in the afternoon. Windy.
Now here in Porto Alegre we already have 85,2ºF/29,6ºC. Windy


And things are heating up in Sao Paulo….
gfs at 5 days says....silent night...holy night...all i calm...aint no storms in sight

navgem at 120 says....move along...nothing to see here

i bet the ancient mexicans could tell by watching the ocean that something was going on. it would be hard for them to tell the difference between swells generated by southern hemis vrs epac hurricanes.
Still weaker than what it was last month and month before


n o it's not...it's an anomaly chart....as the water it is interacting with warms due to seasonal change...the value of the anomaly will diminish is all
LOL, the current SAL image has the dust-cloud looking like a big, bad meanie, sucking all the clouds from the west into it's open mouth.

Bound to be a Portent…...
Quoting 54. Thrawst:



Celia in 2010 peaked at 160mph, no?
Quoting 55. pablosyn:



Ava peaked at 160 mph/915mb. Carlotta peaked at 155 mph/932 mb.

Celia peaked at 160 mph/921mb (estimated) in June 25th, 2010.


Quoting 59. CybrTeddy:



Nope. Celia peaked at 160mph with a 921mb pressure.

Lol, I was looking at the wrong Celia. Don't know why I didn't think twice about my comment since I knew Celia was a Cat 5. :P
30 minutes to the Opening Ceremony of the World Cup.

The US has been playing well, but find themselves in a group that includes Germany, Portugal, and Ghana.
The US will need to be better than they have ever been to qualify from that group.
Good luck to them !
Quoting 63. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I for one would like an El Nino on par with 1997....I can put up with the flooding to get the lakes full. Strong El Ninos plays out to 80% chance of double rain at my location. Weak/Moderate ones are a crapshoot for additional rainfall.

I don't know if I want another year like 1997. We were out for days in an incident command post working the flooding in our area. The plus side is that the mitigation that followed set us up for being able to withstand another event similar to 1997. So, maybe it was worth it. But, I really would rather not test it.
Quoting 30. WaterWitch11:


I hope they come back to san francisco. nothing compares to seeing them in person flying around a gigantic orange bridge :)


Fleet Week in San Fran has always been awesome. I worked right across the street from Moffett Field in Mountain View so it was fun to watch the variety of planes coming in to town the days leading up to FW for practice.
Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:

So far 12Z GFS has produced a much more reasonable approach with the W Carib system
A weak sheared system maybe a TD or weak TS moving slowly N bound
This falls in line with the NAVGEM that shows a weak system in the W Carib

12Z GFS not complete yet


It doesn't show anything... stop looking at the feedback error after day 6
Quoting 21. Astrometeor:

Schedule

The Blue Angels just buzzed by my house, and Mom got a video of them flying over downtown Nashville. They are in town for the Great Tennessee Air Show down in Smyrna, TN from June 14-15.

Google Image in case anyone hasn't heard of these pilots:





They are great but - being a Brit and ex-Royal Air Force, I am a Red Arrows fan - also Red Arrows fly (if memory recalls) with 9 Aircraft albeit smaller and less powerful. BUT all such teams are very professional, disciplined and produce the "wow" factor, whatever Service or Country they come from.

Good indicators of certain ambient weather conditions during high G moves!

Check out this link:

https://www.google.com/search?q=red arrows&rlz=1C1 MSIM_enKY541KY541&espv=2&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=uni v&sa=X&ei=HeaZU8atPJSsyASj8oHYBg&ved=0CEUQsAQ&biw= 1920&bih=955
Quoting 57. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Indeed, you are correct. Then some models had Linda coming to Soo Cal in a much weakened state...which never came to fruition.

Never had a chance of reaching California. The water temps are consistently way too cold. The only chance of any such storm reaching California would be if it phased with an incoming mid latitude storm. That happened in the 1930s, and possibly in the the mid 1800's.
The last two super El Nino events both included a significant hurricane striking the Hawaiian Islands. Water temps near Hawaii have been rising quickly this Spring.
As far as I can tell...maybe others have some more information about it...Cristina is one of the, if not the, smallest East Pacific hurricanes recorded. Hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles.
its going to take a miracle to get out of this bracket but go usa soccer
Whoa, did y'all see this?

Biblical-style deluge at Iguazu Falls
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Biblical-style -deluge-at-Iguazu-Falls-5545382.php#photo-6435804

"Torrential rainfalls in recent days have caused widespread flooding in Argentina and Paraguay, where officials said about 100,000 people had been forced to evacuate."

Note the third pic is what it looks like normally. The whole canyon is filled. The power of water is amazing!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2014 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 16:36:10 N Lon : 107:30:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 928.2mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : 10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.8 degrees

According to ADT, Cristina is beginning to weaken. I do believe she more than likely peaked at 155 Mph, though.
ADT put her at 140 knots at peak which, even when adjusted down, would conservatively put her intensity at 155 mph.
To the rest of my fellow Central Texans, this evening may be a large hail event and I anticipate a mesoscale discussion leading to a WW here over the next few hours. The dew points are horrible here today to the point that when you step out of your car your sun glasses fog up. My poor man's hygrometer :)


...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
IN CONJUNCTION WITH RESIDUAL INFLUENCES OF EARLY DAY
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY
THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX...WITH ATTENDANT
STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES...NOTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NM AT MID-MORNING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE...WITH
STORMS LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE AND ADDITIONALLY POSING A DAMAGING
WIND RISK AS THEY SPREAD GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. PENDING
EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS AND GREATER CONFIDENCE IN A PEAK RISK
CORRIDOR...AREAS SUCH AS WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK /MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ WITH THE 20Z
DAY 1 UPDATE...
Quoting 93. DakeMisc:

Whoa, did y'all see this?

Biblical-style deluge at Iguazu Falls
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Biblical-style -deluge-at-Iguazu-Falls-5545382.php#photo-6435804

"Torrential rainfalls in recent days have caused widespread flooding in Argentina and Paraguay, where officials said about 100,000 people had been forced to evacuate."

Note the third pic is what it looks like normally. The whole canyon is filled. The power of water is amazing!


This is some new record:

"The Iguazu and Parana rivers that Brazil shares with Paraguay and Argentina rose to historic levels, forcing authorities to open two major hydroelectric dams above the world-renowned Iguazu Falls, where the water flow increased nearly 30-fold, from 1,500 cubic meters per second to 43,000 meters per second, topping the previous record of 36,000 set in 1992."
Quoting 88. SSideBrac:



They are great but - being a Brit and ex-Royal Air Force, I am a Red Arrows fan - also Red Arrows fly (if memory recalls) with 9 Aircraft albeit smaller and less powerful. BUT all such teams are very professional, disciplined and produce the "wow" factor, whatever Service or Country they come from.

Good indicators of certain ambient weather conditions during high G moves!

Check out this link:

https://www.google.com/search?q=red arrows&rlz=1C1 MSIM_enKY541KY541&espv=2&tbm=isch&tbo= u&source=uni v&sa=X&ei=HeaZU8atPJSsyASj8oHYBg&ved=0 CEUQsAQ&biw= 1920&bih=955

Cool I'm a red arrows fan
List of all recorded Category 5 Hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific.
Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Critical anomaly ends long-lived NOAA satellite mission
(Excerpts follow. Text in brackets [ ] and emphasis were added by me. Click the above link for the full article.)
....

NOAA 16 carried weather sensors to measure atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, collect visible and infrared imagery of clouds and storms, and gather sea surface temperature data.

....

Weather satellites in polar orbit fly in three groups, each passing over the equator in the early morning, mid-morning and in the afternoon local time. NOAA is responsible for satellites in the afternoon orbit ....

Suomi NPP assumed the role as the primary meteorological satellite flying in the afternoon orbit [replacing NOAA 16] May 1. Its predecessors, NOAA 18 and NOAA 19, provide other services and act as backups to Suomi NPP.

NOAA hopes the trio will live long enough to ensure no data gap before the first weather platform in the next-generation Joint Polar Satellite System launches in March 2017.

Experts are concerned that weather forecasts will degrade if the older satellites do not make it until the launch of JPSS 1.

NOAA has asked for funding from Congress to build spare instruments for a potential gap-filler satellite in case JPSS 1 suffers a launch failure or delays.

Mary Kicza, the official in charge of NOAA's satellite division, told Congress last year she predicted a 50 percent chance of a data gap from polar-orbiting satellites.


....
Quoting LargoFl:


HRRR showing strong storms should start forming over Central Texas and down in the Southcentral Texas Hill Country area of Texas later today and into this evening. Then they will move into S.E. Tx.
Map showing this evening
Quoting 100. LargoFl:


Thanks for the Texas heads up.
Across Florida storms have been shut down across Southern Fl. due to the storms from last night and this earlier this morning.

Last night storms formed and moved across South Florida. We'll have to see if that happens tonight. The sun is out and its really warmed up so we have the energy.

This westerly flow across the state has our normal rainy season pattern all messed up.

And Eastern Pacific isn't even in the most favorable possible condition with this upcoming MJO toward the end of this month. Amazing start to the season so far!

Btw, is anyone on here watching US Open golf or World Cup? I usually play on a golf course about 15 miles up US-1 in Sandhills and my course look similar to what Pinehurst No. 2 is now, but little more rough grass and less small bushes. My course is still as sandy, though :)
Time Chart for converting UTC to EST
Helps when reading charts

UTC/GMT
"Z" Time EST
0000 7 p.m.
0100 8 p.m.
0200 9 p.m.
0300 10 p.m.
0400 11 p.m.
0500 Midnight
0600 1 a.m.
0700 2 a.m.
0800 3 a.m.
0900 4 a.m.
1000 5 a.m.
1100 6 a.m.
UTC/GMT
"Z" Time EST
1200 7 a.m.
1300 8 a.m.
1400 9 a.m.
1500 10 a.m.
1600 11 a.m.
1700 Noon
1800 1 p.m.
1900 2 p.m.
2000 3 p.m.
2100 4 p.m.
2200 5 p.m.
2300 6 p.m.
It's looking like (once again) Nebraska is going to be a storm chaser fest this weekend. The set-up on Saturday looks very promising: Euro and GFS are showing a breakable cap across the NE/KS border, very strong low-level jet, strong instability along the LLJ, and it's actually a great set-up that's not on the warm front this time!
Picture of nothing but a slab left after F5 tornado passed through Jarrell Texas in 1997 (central Tx north of Austin). 27 people were killed


Radar of the cells that produced the killer tornadoes.
Quoting 106. Ameister12:

It's looking like (once again) Nebraska is going to be a storm chaser fest this weekend. The set-up on Saturday looks very promising: Euro and GFS are showing a breakable cap across the NE/KS border, very strong low-level jet, strong instability along the LLJ, and it's actually a great set-up that's not on the warm front this time!


I hate tornadoes, and the incredible destruction and distress they cause. I've seen some unbelievable footage on Youtube, particularly Joplin. But, I still find them utterly fascinating, like everyone else.

I wouldn't like to live in tornado alley. Here, in Scotland, spring is my favourite season. That wouldn't be the case in the midwest.
Crazy development that day across Central Texas.


Photo taken near the Double Creek neighborhood that was completely destroyed down to the slabs.

Quoting 80. islander101010:

i bet the ancient mexicans could tell by watching the ocean that something was going on. it would be hard for them to tell the difference between swells generated by southern hemis vrs epac hurricanes.


actually, they probably could tell the diff. epac storms would create short period swells(time between each wave). it would be big and sloppy and dangerous. waves breaking on top of each other, nothing ride able. also the waves would rise quickly and dissipate as quickly. the southern hemi swells would be long period swells. waves would be much nicer looking, coming in lines, 3-5 waves per set (assuming there isnt a strong on shore flow). you would have forerunners coming in a day before then swell lasting a couple days at least.

im just comparing this to hawaii. trade wind swells (east-east northeast direction, driven from high pressure) have a short period swell of 7-10 seconds. waves may be big (anywhere from 4-12') but it will be sloppy and choppy. while swells from the south pacific or northwest pacific have long period swells of 15-22seconds. waves that would be much better to surf.
111. flsky
Great thunder storm a few minutes ago in ECFL.

Oh Golly gee more rain -_-.
Quoting 107. Sfloridacat5:

Picture of nothing but a slab left after F5 tornado passed through Jarrell Texas in 1997 (central Tx north of Austin). 27 people were killed


Radar of the cells that produced the killer tornadoes.


Potentially the stongest tornado recorded in modern times, and it wasn't very textbook. Had a velocity couplet, but it wasn't particularly intense. Barely had a hook echo. Moved southwest. Lasted for just a short period of time. Didn't form as an isolated supercell ahead of a dryline.

The amount of ground scoring and vegetation removal is among the most severe ever surveyed. I believe it may also the only tornado with a 100% fatallity rate in >=EF4 winds (excluding possible cases of only 1 or 2 fatalities with only the same number of possible fatalities).

We should see a Watch in this area any time. Storms should also start firing across Southcentral and Central Texas any time.

MD at 80%. I expect a tornado watch to be issued within the next hour or so.

Florida Weather Blog.............................................. ............................
Quoting 114. Sfloridacat5:

We should see a Watch in this area any time. Storms should also start firing across Southcentral and Central Texas any time.




You beat me to it :)
MLCAPE values have now gone up from 500-1500 earlier this morning. I'll be putting the thundershirt on my dog when I get home.

...THE COMBINATION OF A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG...

Quoting 103. Sfloridacat5:

Across Florida storms have been shut down across Southern Fl. due to the storms from last night and this earlier this morning.

Last night storms formed and moved across South Florida. We'll have to see if that happens tonight. The sun is out and its really warmed up so we have the energy.

This westerly flow across the state has our normal rainy season pattern all messed up.




Yeah there was a cap from last nights activity leftover due to latent heat release, however, thunderstorms may pop substantially later on, we shall see.
Sorry about being of topic, but the 2014 soccer World Cup just kicked off, with the home team Brazil playing Croatia. The USA are competing, but are way out of their depth. The bookies have them at 7/2 just to progress from their group.

England are also no hopers, having to play their group matches in the sweltering heat and humidity of Amazonia. They're 4/6 to qualify from their group, but they're unlikely to progress further.
Wow, people are overjoyed when temps in India fell below 45C/113F today!

Scattered rains bring joy to Delhi; no heatwave till June 18, says Met Dept
Last Updated: Friday, June 13, 2014, 00:52
New Delhi: After scattered rains and thunderstorms in several parts of the national capital on Thursday brought much needed relief to Delhiites, the MeT department predicted that the capital would be free from heatwave for a few more days.
"There won't be heat wave in Delhi now, people will be relieved from the heat till June", said M Duraisamy, Director, MET Department.
The capital was reeling under blistering heat coupled with long blackouts for over one week.
The MeT department said the city received 0.8 mm of rain till 5:30 in the evening. People came out of their offices and homes to enjoy the rain.
The maximum temperature today was recorded at 41.1 (106F) degrees Celsius, two notches above normal, and down from yesterday's 43.6 degrees. The maximum temperature between June 6 and June 10 was on a record breaking spree as it was 45 degrees and above.
The temperature came down by 4-5 degrees following the rains. The weatherman has predicted partly cloudy sky tomorrow with possibilities of light rain and thunderstorms in some areas.
Apart from the intense heat, people in the city are having a harrowing time with long blackouts ranging up to six hours as authorities are yet to restore many major power transmission lines damaged by the devastating storm on May 30.
Maximum temperature of 41.1 degrees was recorded at Safdarjung observatory, considered to be the official reading for the city. Elsewhere too, temperature dropped significantly and came below the 45 degrees mark.
At Palam, the day temperature was recorded at 43.6 degrees while at Ayanagar and Ridge area, the maximum temperature was recorded at 42.2 and 41.5 degrees respectively.
The minimum temperature in the city today was recorded at 30.5 degrees, three notches above the normal.
Humidity levels remained between 57 and 31 degrees Celsius during the day. The maximum temperature is expected to settle around 41 while minimum may remain as high as 31 degrees tomorrow.



Indians Suffer Through Longest Heatwave On Record (PHOTOS)
The Huffington Post | By Amanda Golden, Posted: 06/12/2014 11:31 am EDT Updated: 4 hours ago



Very good photo gallery, indeed.

And wow, Ireland gets its "heatwave" too :-)

Our summer heatwave: sunny weather to continue as temperatures soar next week
Irish Examiner, today
It's time to get the sunscreen out again as Met Eireann predict a heat wave running right into next week.
Today, temperatures hit as high as 21C (69,8F) degrees in some parts and are expected to remain at around 18 or 19 degrees for Friday and Saturday.
The country is set to get even hotter on Sunday and Monday with highs of 21 degrees expected.


I hope, everyone has a nice afternoon.
Sign of things to come. Storms are firing west of Del Rio in Mexico. They should start firing off further to the East across S.W. Texas soon.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah there was a cap from last nights activity leftover due to latent heat release, however, thunderstorms may pop substantially later on, we shall see.


Here at at my location in S. Fort Myers we were having a ton of lightning and thunder around midnight. I was trying to sleep and the lightning kept lighting up my room and the thunder was drivng me crazy.
I put some ear plugs in and that helped a little (picked up .46" of rain overnight in my Vantage Vue).
Same story for past 3 weeks

Re: 120

If that's a heatwave, sign me up for Ireland. I'm half-Irish, ya know.

Nanauk slowly approaching the coast of Oman.

59F predicted for Scotland tomorrow, but might get up to a sweltering 65F on Saturday/Sunday.
127. 1344
Quoting 90. BayFog:

The last two super El Nino events both included a significant hurricane striking the Hawaiian Islands. Water temps near Hawaii have been rising quickly this Spring.


1997 did not see a Hawaii hurricane landfall. They need to watch out for 2014 though.
Quoting 122. Sfloridacat5:



Here at at my location in S. Fort Myers we were having a ton of lightning and thunder around midnight. I was trying to sleep and the lightning kept lighting up my room and the thunder was drivng me crazy.
I put some ear plugs in and that helped a little (picked up .46" of rain overnight in my Vantage Vue).


We had a pretty strong line of thunderstorms yesterday at a rather odd time for rain off the gulf, around dinner time. I think speed convergence was at a maximum combined with now much warmer water temps. The gulf temp off of Pinellas was 77 at the end of May, its now 85 and rising, so it has warmed drastically over the last week.
Map Shows Energy Installations In Extreme Weather's Path
Climate Central, Published: June 12th, 2014
Imagine living near the Jersey Shore and a hurricane is barrelling in your direction, or living along the South Platte River in Colorado and an unexpected torrential downpour is flooding the river.
Are there natural gas, oil pipelines or electricity transmission lines that could break and leak in the flood or storm surge? Are oil and gas wells nearby that could flood and leach hydrocarbons into the river?
Those answers can be found online using the U.S. Energy Information Administration's interactive U.S. Energy Mapping System, which shows all the major energy infrastructure for any given address in the U.S. It allows anyone to look closely at what power plants, refineries, oil wells, power lines and other installations might exist in a place that is vulnerable to extreme weather. ...
130. wxmod
Eye.

Quoting 126. yonzabam:

59F predicted for Scotland tomorrow, but might get up to a sweltering 65F on Saturday/Sunday.


Quoting 126. yonzabam:

59F predicted for Scotland tomorrow, but might get up to a sweltering 65F on Saturday/Sunday.


That's considered a substantial shot of cold air for Florida in the winter, what a joke lol.

Any high below 60 here in the winter is pretty serious cold, which makes since given the January average is 71 for a high and 50 for a low here.
135. wxmod
Sahara Dust.

Quoting 113. ScottLincoln:


Potentially the stongest tornado recorded in modern times, and it wasn't very textbook. Had a velocity couplet, but it wasn't particularly intense. Barely had a hook echo. Moved southwest. Lasted for just a short period of time. Didn't form as an isolated supercell ahead of a dryline.

The amount of ground scoring and vegetation removal is among the most severe ever surveyed. I believe it may also the only tornado with a 100% fatallity rate in >=EF4 winds (excluding possible cases of only 1 or 2 fatalities with only the same number of possible fatalities).




Was it the slow movement that made Jarrell torando so intense and deadly?
Good morning all from the Aloha State.

I have to say that this year's EPAC hurricane season is off to an incredible start. We have seen the strongest May hurricane on record as well as two Category 4 hurricanes early in the season. Looks like Hawaii should be prepared this year given this activity.
Tiny cell starting to fire up northwest of San Antonio. This is the start of the second round of storms that could produce severe weather.
Quoting 135. wxmod:

Sahara Dust.




:/ I hate the dust
A better look at the new cell forming without all the clutter around San Antonio.
...Significant weather advisory for east central coastal Palm Beach County...southern Metro Palm Beach County and southeastern inland Palm Beach County...

* until 530 PM EDT

* at 448 PM EDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a strong thunderstorm 10 miles west of Loxahatchee NWR...or 15 miles southwest of Wellington...moving northeast at 15 mph.

Frequent to excessive lightning...gusty winds from 45 to 55 mph...small hail...torrential downpours...or a combination of these are possible. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

* The storm will affect... Boynton Beach...Delray Beach...Wellington...Greenacres...Royal Palm Beach...Loxahatchee Groves...Village of Golf...the acreage... Loxahatchee NWR...dunes Road...Gulf Stream...Florida Gardens... Aberdeen Golf course and Aberdeen.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Torrential rainfall can be expected...causing temporary ponding on some roads and minor flooding of poor drainage areas. Motorists should slow down in heavy rainfall to reduce the risk of hydroplaning and leave a safe distance between other vehicles.
Quoting 134. Jedkins01:



That's considered a substantial shot of cold air for Florida in the winter, what a joke lol.

Any high below 60 here in the winter is pretty serious cold, which makes since given the January average is 71 for a high and 50 for a low here.


I'm sure I read a news article once showing the different conceptions of 'warm' weather, even within the moderate climes of the UK. Sales of disposal BBQs, burgers, ice cream etc. start to rise in Scotland from just 68F, whereas in London it takes >75F to produce the same sales spike in supermarkets. I'm stocking up my ice-cream for early next week, 73F looks possible on Monday and Tuesday.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Potentially the stongest tornado recorded in modern times, and it wasn't very textbook. Had a velocity couplet, but it wasn't particularly intense. Barely had a hook echo. Moved southwest. Lasted for just a short period of time. Didn't form as an isolated supercell ahead of a dryline.

The amount of ground scoring and vegetation removal is among the most severe ever surveyed. I believe it may also the only tornado with a 100% fatallity rate in >=EF4 winds (excluding possible cases of only 1 or 2 fatalities with only the same number of possible fatalities).


The issue with Jarrell is that it was very slow-moving. Obviously a higher exposure to EF5 winds is going to produce more extreme damage.

I'd argue 2011's Hackleburg-Phil Campbell was one of the strongest. It produced incredible grass and road scouring, wiped out several well-built homes, and even ripped off a concrete door to an underground storm shelter. This tornado had the longest track in the Super Outbreak, FWIW.
Quoting 136. Bluestorm5:



Was it the slow movement that made Jarrell torando so intense and deadly?

Many things I've read by people smarter than me with regards to tornado damage seem to think so.
I seem to recall that the Jarrell tornado moved at 5mph or less when it moved through the subdivision.

Assuming 0.25 mi width and 5 mph movement, that is approximately 3 minutes of tornadic winds.
Quoting 123. Grothar:

Same story for past 3 weeks


If something forms kudos to the GFS and he retains his crown as King if nothing forms GFS is trash and is demoted to Court Jester. Do we agree?
Quoting 145. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The issue with Jarrell is that it was very slow-moving. Obviously a higher exposure to EF5 winds is going to produce more extreme damage.

I'd argue 2011's Hackleburg-Phil Campbell was one of the strongest. It produced incredible grass and road scouring, wiped out several well-built homes, and even ripped off a concrete door to an underground storm shelter. This tornado had the longest track in the Super Outbreak, FWIW.

Certainly is subjective. I've seen different people rank the tornadoes differently. Without consistent, objective wind speed estimates for every EF5 tornado, it is almost impossible to say for sure.
Forward speed of the tornado is also a wild card. Fast forward speed can increase wind speeds in the tornado, causing more damage. But longer duration of exposure to high winds can also increase damage. Perhaps Jarrell had EF5 damage but not EF5 winds. i'm not really sure.
Either way, looking at the aerial photographs of how extensive the scouring was and how consistently the vegetative cover was removed (and over such a large area), it's certainly a contender for the top spot.

Just out of curiosity, do you have any good aerial pictures of Hackleburg for comparison?
We should see the storms to the west of I35 really get going. There was nothing out there just a little while a go and now there are storms popping up all over the area.
Looks like light storms getting to StL metro, hope I get enough time to get lawn mowed before get here, but doubt it. Beat the forecast of 81 by 2, but have cooled as clouds moved in. Currently 78 w/ 65 dew pt, light W to WSW winds w/ a 16 gust, 29.87". Supposed to be mid 50s tonight (finally, open the windows) w/ high 70s, lower humidity tomorrow, low 80 Sat, before warming and wetting back up Sun. Then rain chances through Wed at least. Already 3.1" this week.
Here comes the rain!
Texas Storm Raiders just got pulled over by the police while chasing.
He's talking to the police right now and it's not going well on the live feed.
Quoting 147. GTstormChaserCaleb:

If something forms kudos to the GFS and he retains his crown as King if nothing forms GFS is trash and is demoted to Court Jester. Do we agree?



We agree.
He was arguing with the police and got a ticket for 75 in a 55 mph zone (and it also looks like he's in a construction zone).

Bad chase day for him, but they are back on the road again.
The Caribbean is still very quiet.

Quoting 98. TylerStanfield:

List of all recorded Category 5 Hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific.

All of them in Niño years. Then this one have a chance to have 1 or more cat 5.
That one tiny cell that popped up N.W. of San Antonio has really intensified.
stay alert and safe tonight Texas............................................. ...............
Quoting 156. allancalderini:

All of them in Nio years. Then this one have a chance to have 1 or more cat 5.


With the EPAC so favorable this year I will not be surprised if it has 1 or 2 cat 5's.
Quoting 98. TylerStanfield:

List of all recorded Category 5 Hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific.



Very good graphic. Do you have the link to it?
T Storm Warning on that storm N.W. of S.A. now.
El Paso, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 2:51 PM MDT on June 12, 2014
Scattered Clouds
98 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 24 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 33 mph
Pressure: 29.72 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

Not so far. What's the time of your peak of heating?
Moderate El-nino would be nice with the back to back to back to back blizzards.
Quoting 62. islander101010:

ever recorded? it isnt until recent that we really knew there was hurricane season in the epac. ever? i think it refers to the last 50yrs
The Olmec, Toltec and Aztec peoples inhabited regions that would have been affected by East Pacific tropical cyclones for over a thousand years. These civilizations had writing, calenders, and knowledge of mathematics and astronomy. Do you think they noticed the hurricane season?
166. 1344
I could see as many as 3 EPAC Cat 5's.
Storms west of Waco should go severe in the very near future. Some chasers on that storm so we could see some action.
It already has a nice wall cloud on the live feed.
Quoting 165. guygee:

The Olmec, Toltec and Aztec peoples inhabited regions that would have been affected by East Pacific tropical cyclones for over a thousand years. These civilizations had writing and knowledge of mathematics and astronomy. Do you think they noticed the hurricanes?
interesting indeed.................In the Aztec ritual calendar the Tonalpohualli Tezcatlipoca ruled the trecena 1 .... of rulership and thunder which eventually led to the English word "Hurricane".
Big Picture
Also- Brandon Clement has a real nice wall cloud on his feed - storm west of Waco.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:12 PM PDT on June 12, 2014
Clear
83.4 °F / 28.6 °C
Clear
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: 51 °F / 11 °C
Wind: 12.0 mph / 19.3 km/h / 5.4 m/s from the NE
Wind Gust: 21.0 mph / 33.8 km/h / 9.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.85 in / 1011 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 82 °F / 28 °C

Pretty much the same as yesterday, 86.6F here....
Quoting 165. guygee:

The Olmec, Toltec and Aztec peoples inhabited regions that would have been affected by East Pacific tropical cyclones for over a thousand years. These civilizations had writing, calenders, and knowledge of mathematics and astronomy. Do you think they noticed the hurricane season?


I bet the Chapultepec did.
I don't understand how the GFS can be stuck on the same model run for weeks on end.
Those are two big boys. There's one to the North and one to the South.
All the psychogenesis models are showing another EPAC system very soon.



Quoting 170. LargoFl:

interesting indeed.................In the Aztec ritual calendar the Tonalpohualli Tezcatlipoca ruled the trecena 1 .... of rulership and thunder which eventually led to the English word "Hurricane".
Interesting indeed. I was reading a short primer on Aztec civilization: here. There is a paragraph on their religious views:

"It is not unfair to say that Aztec culture was overwhelmingly eschatological in a way that can only be rivalled by early Christianity. The Aztecs, like the Mayans, believed that the universe had been created five times and destroyed four times; each of these five eras was called a Sun. The first age was called Four Ocelot (for it began on the date called Four Ocelot). Tezcatlipoca (Smoking Mirror) dominated the universe and eventually became the sun disk. The world was destroyed by jaguars. The second age was Four Wind, dominated by Quetzalcoatl (Sovereign Plumed Serpent); men were turned to monkeys and the world was destroyed by hurricanes and tempests. The third age was Four Rain, dominated by Tlaloc (the rain god); the world was destroyed by a rain of fire. The fourth era was Four Water and was dominated by Chalchihuitlicue (Woman with the Turquoise Skirt); the world was destroyed by a flood. The fifth era, the one we live in now, is Four Earthquake, and is dominated by Tonatiuh, the Sun-God. This age will end in earthquakes. "


Hurricanes were embedded into their religion and world view.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC137-171-265-385-122300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0104.140612T2215Z-140612T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL GILLESPIE COUNTY...
WESTERN KERR COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN REAL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 513 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16
MILES NORTHWEST OF KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...OR 17 MILES
SOUTH OF JUNCTION...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MOUNTAIN HOME.

THIS STORM REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WITH VTEC CODE
NUMBER 103.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9931 3025 9922 2991 9962 3028 9995
3030 9989 3030 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 308DEG 13KT 3026 9969

$$

What is that in bold? I don't recall ever seeing that before...
												
Quoting 176. Grothar:

All the psychogenesis models are showing another EPAC system very soon.


"psychogenesis models"

That's taking wishcasting to a whole new level, even for this place. :)
Quoting 155. Grothar:

The Caribbean is still very quiet.


Thank you oh most wisest of the wise!
Quoting 173. Grothar:



I bet the Chapultepec did.
As a personal witness, I will take your word on it.
Quoting 177. guygee:

Interesting indeed. I was reading a short primer on Aztec civilization: here. There is a paragraph on their religious views:

"It is not unfair to say that Aztec culture was overwhelmingly eschatological in a way that can only be rivalled by early Christianity. The Aztecs, like the Mayans, believed that the universe had been created five times and destroyed four times; each of these five eras was called a Sun. The first age was called Four Ocelot (for it began on the date called Four Ocelot). Tezcatlipoca (Smoking Mirror) dominated the universe and eventually became the sun disk. The world was destroyed by jaguars. The second age was Four Wind, dominated by Quetzalcoatl (Sovereign Plumed Serpent); men were turned to monkeys and the world was destroyed by hurricanes and tempests. The third age was Four Rain, dominated by Tlaloc (the rain god); the world was destroyed by a rain of fire. The fourth era was Four Water and was dominated by Chalchihuitlicue (Woman with the Turquoise Skirt); the world was destroyed by a flood. The fifth era, the one we live in now, is Four Earthquake, and is dominated by Tonatiuh, the Sun-God. This age will end in earthquakes. "


Hurricanes were embedded into their religion and world view.
It must have been an amazing time back then,some call them savages but I think they had a very advanced culture for the time..maybe at their height, more advanced than the european cultures back then...too bad the spanish destroyed everything they could find down there for almost 300 years in their occupation...what we could have been learning today..gee so much history destroyed huh.
Quoting 182. LargoFl:

It must have been an amazing time back then,some call them savages but I think they had a very advanced culture for the time..maybe at their height, more advanced than the european cultures back then...too bad the spanish destroyed everything they could find down there for almost 300 years in their occupation...what we could have been learning today..gee so much history destroyed huh.


Well, they were called "savages" because their culture was radically different. People start looking at other humans as inferior or of disgust simply because they are different, which is so sad because they have 100% human hearts, brains, and DNA etc. like us...

Sure there was some terrible things about their culture, but, so was the case with the Europeans or any other human culture. By that logic all humanity should be discarded, what is bad in a culture should be discouraged and what is good encouraged. The diversity of us all is a beautiful thing.
Watch the Friday the 13th "Honey Moon" Rise on This Live Stream
3:40 PM ET
The celestial phenomenon hasn't appeared in over a century
This Friday the 13th, a champagne-colored full moon will appear in the sky, a celestial event that has not occurred in almost a century.
The "Honey Moon," as the June full moon is known, fell on the unlucky day for the last time in 1919. You'll be able to watch its newest appearance on this live stream provided by Slooh, starting at 9:00 pm EDT. The live stream, which is streamed from the Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands and the Pontificia Universidad Catolica De Chile, will be accompanied by comments from astronomer Bob Berman. It will be two hours long.
Viewers are encouraged to photograph the phenomenon and share their impressions on Twitter with the hashtag #Sloohhoneymoon.


Rare spooky-sweet event: Full "Honey Moon" coincides with Friday the 13th
WP, By Jason Samenow June 12 at 4:55 pm

(The exeptional thing isn't the moon rise as such, but the coincidence with the date, lol).
Unfortunatey for some mysterious reasons viewers from Germany aren't allowed to watch the above mentioned live stream. And the analog, real rise of the "honey moon" (or "rose/strawberry moon") I've just missed because I've watched world cup soccer :-( But yesterday night during a visit I've noticed in the corner of the eye that the rising moon, hidden behind some trees, really looked somehow gloomy.
" This year is also the first time there have been two Category 4 hurricanes before July 1 in the Eastern Pacific. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second Category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached that threshold on July 1. Reliable records for the basin go back to 1966. "

Could someone help me identify if there have only been four years total in which 2 or more actual hurricanes have developed between May and June in the Pacific-East? I can only see:

1984 was the first recorded time that we have had two cat 4 hurricane level storms May-June and it had a total of 4 hurricanes from May-June.


2012 had 2 hurricanes from May-June, a cat 2 and 3.



2013 had three hurricanes from May-June all cat 1s.



2014 has had 2 hurricanes (so far) from May-June both cat 4s.

There is unconfirmed information about 1956 I don't know where to begin to research this or the accuracy. I am taking 1992 out because the first hurricane was in January and not considered part of the seasonal hurricanes.

(And "Hello!" from Southern California.)
Quoting 182. LargoFl:

It must have been an amazing time back then,some call them savages but I think they had a very advanced culture for the time..maybe at their height, more advanced than the european cultures back then...too bad the spanish destroyed everything they could find down there for almost 300 years in their occupation...what we could have beern learning today..gee so much history destroyed huh.
That is true, it is a tragic fact. Not just history either but important knowledge as well. For example many agricultural crops were associated with religious rituals, and the early missionaries suppressed the growing of these crops at pain of death just to stamp out the indigenous religion. A good example is Amaranth, which until recently was considered a weed in modern times but only now is beginning to be widely cultivated again using modern methods. Other crops have gone extinct, or have mosty reverted to the wild state (examples are the Peach Palm, Bactris gasipaes, and the Mayan Nut, Brosimum alicastrum ).
That storm has a tornadic signature and 4" hail possibility. Nasty one.

Radar Detected Storms
Junction, TX Lat: 30.22 Lon: -99.72
Type Tornadic Thunderstorm (Q0)
Max Reflectivity 71 dBZ
Severe Hail 100 % Chance
Hail 100 % Chance
Max Hail Size 4.00 in.
Echo Top 45,000 ft.
Vert. Integrated Liquid 83 kg/m²
Speed 16 mph (14 knots)
Direction (from) NE (38°)
Radar Site DFX


Quoting 178. LavosPhoenix:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC137-171-265-385-122300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0104.140612T2215Z-140612T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL GILLESPIE COUNTY...
WESTERN KERR COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN REAL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 513 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16
MILES NORTHWEST OF KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...OR 17 MILES
SOUTH OF JUNCTION...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MOUNTAIN HOME.

THIS STORM REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WITH VTEC CODE
NUMBER 103.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9931 3025 9922 2991 9962 3028 9995
3030 9989 3030 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 308DEG 13KT 3026 9969

$$

What is that in bold? I don't recall ever seeing that before...
Quoting 172. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:12 PM PDT on June 12, 2014
Clear
83.4 °F / 28.6 °C
Clear
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: 51 °F / 11 °C
Wind: 12.0 mph / 19.3 km/h / 5.4 m/s from the NE
Wind Gust: 21.0 mph / 33.8 km/h / 9.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.85 in / 1011 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 82 °F / 28 °C

Pretty much the same as yesterday, 86.6F here....


A very nice day in Soo Cal
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 12 Jun 3:30 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 12 Jun 3:20 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
12 Jun 3:20 pm PDT 84 30 14 NW 7G13 OK
Quoting Grothar:
All the psychogenesis models are showing another EPAC system very soon.

"psychogenesis"...hehe...describes some of what I read here very well. :-)
Quoting 174. hurricanewatcher61:

I don't understand how the GFS can be stuck on the same model run for weeks on end.


It has deja vu......
I can't believe how far that little green dot NW of SA has come in such a short time.

Tornado warning to the N.W. of SA.

192. FOREX
Quoting 190. HurricaneHunterJoe:



It has deja vu......


I wonder if the GFS will still be showing the same system in the GULF a few weeks from now? The 18Z run had landfall in the panhandle again. Crazy.
Tornado warned storm N.W. of SA. Also the storm to the west of Waco has a severe T storm warning (it has a history of some nice wall clouds).
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Certainly is subjective. I've seen different people rank the tornadoes differently. Without consistent, objective wind speed estimates for every EF5 tornado, it is almost impossible to say for sure.
Forward speed of the tornado is also a wild card. Fast forward speed can increase wind speeds in the tornado, causing more damage. But longer duration of exposure to high winds can also increase damage. Perhaps Jarrell had EF5 damage but not EF5 winds. i'm not really sure.
Either way, looking at the aerial photographs of how extensive the scouring was and how consistently the vegetative cover was removed (and over such a large area), it's certainly a contender for the top spot.

Just out of curiosity, do you have any good aerial pictures of Hackleburg for comparison?

There are some good photos of the Phil Campbell/Hackleburg tornado here and many more here. I haven't seen a good montage or video of the entire path from an aircraft, although I'm sure some must exist, since both the Civil Air Patrol and Alabama DPS were flying the path the next day. Having been in Hackleburg about 16 hours after touchdown, it's certainly my opinion that it's the worst tornado damage I've ever seen, either in person or in pictures. It's hard for me to imagine any tornado doing more damage than what I saw there.
Cortez was the Savage, not the indigenous people he slaughtered

Neil Young, Cortez the Killer
197. FOREX
Quoting 196. Climate175:




This run was a panhandle landfall. The GFS has been so persistent with this that something just might develop late next week.
Grothar, do you still owe this Guy Kuk-Kla-Kan pesos ?




Tezcatlipoca ist the God of the 5th Mayan night, he is “...associated with ... night sky, the night winds, hurricanes
If the GFS pans out sometime in the future with all these model runs and has a storm headed towards Florida, it will be one for the records.
Quoting 197. FOREX:



This run was a panhandle landfall. The GFS has been so persistent with this that something just might develop late next week.
Quoting 197. FOREX:



This run was a panhandle landfall. The GFS has been so persistent with this that something just might develop late next week.
Check your wunder mail Forex.

Thursday June 12, 2014
Arabian Sea Tropical Storm NANAUK
Tropical storm NANUAK formed west of India on June 10, 2014 and since then has been moving toward the northwest over the open waters of the Arabian Sea. The TRMM satellite found that NANAUK contained powerful storms dropping rain at a rate of over 247.3 mm/hr (about 9.7 inches) when viewed on June 11, 2014 at 1549 UTC. An analysis of rainfall from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) is shown above overlaid on a 1530 UTC enhanced infrared image from the METEOSAT-7 satellite. TRMM PR data were used in the 3-D view shown in the second image. Those data showed that NANAUK contained powerful convective thunderstorm towers that were reaching heights of up to 16.8 km (about 10.4 miles). Some of the intense downpours in NANAUK were returning radar reflectivity values greater than 59 dBZ to the satellite.
Tropical Storm NANAUK had sustained wind speeds estimated at 55kts (about 63 mph) with this TRMM pass. The tropical storm is predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to slowly weaken over the next couple days while heading toward the Gulf Of Oman.

Follow the link to get a 3-D-animation.

Good night folks. Watch the full moon if you get a chance ...
"And the moon is a blind eye ..."
I say keep a watch eye.
203. FOREX
Quoting 202. Climate175:

Check your wunder mail Forex.


Thanks for the mail . Very interesting. Wouldn't surprise me at all.
204. FOREX
Quoting 199. hurricanewatcher61:

If the GFS pans out sometime in the future with all these model runs and has a storm headed towards Florida, it will be one for the records.


The Euro will be pissed.
Now nobody say a word of concern.
Time to get er' done as we're well into June.

Are you Ready?



Hurricane Preparation 2014

Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues

Your Evacuation Plan

Disaster Supplies Kit

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's

"Think outside the Cone"

hurricanebuddy.com


History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.
207. FOREX
Quoting 202. Climate175:

I say keep a watch eye.


I live in Panama City beach and have noticed a landfall near me or close to me on several of the runs over the past few weeks. I will be watching, don't worry.
A Panhandle landfall, a stall, then exit stage right! Interesting run on the 18Z
Quoting 167. LargoFl:




High pressure just off of West Central Florida
211. FOREX
Quoting 208. hurricanewatcher61:

A Panhandle landfall, a stall, then exit stage right! Interesting run on the 18Z


These long range landfalls have been all over the place. Mexico to Miami. Will be interesting to see what happens next week.
Quoting 148. ScottLincoln:


Certainly is subjective. I've seen different people rank the tornadoes differently. Without consistent, objective wind speed estimates for every EF5 tornado, it is almost impossible to say for sure.
Forward speed of the tornado is also a wild card. Fast forward speed can increase wind speeds in the tornado, causing more damage. But longer duration of exposure to high winds can also increase damage. Perhaps Jarrell had EF5 damage but not EF5 winds. i'm not really sure.
Either way, looking at the aerial photographs of how extensive the scouring was and how consistently the vegetative cover was removed (and over such a large area), it's certainly a contender for the top spot.

Just out of curiosity, do you have any good aerial pictures of Hackleburg for comparison?

Having a hard time finding high quality images, but these show the damage decently.

Philadelphia and El Reno 2011 both rank up very high as well. Very hard to choose.


I guess the Euro would be a little upset.
214. FOREX
Quoting 213. hurricanewatcher61:

I guess the Euro would be a little upset.



Then the blog will be EURO bashing for a month.
Thanks!

I missed all the fun in the Eastern Pacific...
Quoting 214. FOREX:



Then the blog will be EURO bashing for a month.
My estimation says yellow circle maybe Sat/Sun period.
Quoting 214. FOREX:



Then the blog will be EURO bashing for a month.

Even if the GFS storm happened, which it won't, the Euro would still be blowing away the GFS for performance this year. It's not even a contest. Eventually, we probably will get a storm where the GFS shows it. But that might be three months from now. Just because the GFS shows it every run doesn't mean it got it right when/if it happens. And when it happens, I'm willing to bet the Euro picks up on it.
218. FOREX
Quoting 216. Climate175:

Looking at my estimates it appears it may be possible to get a yellow circle Sat/Sun time period.


I hope we do get a circle, but it sure is quiet out there right now. Would love for the EURO to show some sign of the GFS storm.
Quoting 217. MAweatherboy1:


Even if the GFS storm happened, which it won't, the Euro would still be blowing away the GFS for performance this year. It's not even a contest. Eventually, we probably will get a storm where the GFS shows it. But that might be three months from now. Just because the GFS shows it every run doesn't mean it got it right when/if it happens. And when it happens, I'm willing to bet the Euro picks up on it.
Conditions do not seem favorable for development now and i am recording that down.
220. FOREX
Quoting 217. MAweatherboy1:


Even if the GFS storm happened, which it won't, the Euro would still be blowing away the GFS for performance this year. It's not even a contest. Eventually, we probably will get a storm where the GFS shows it. But that might be three months from now. Just because the GFS shows it every run doesn't mean it got it right when/if it happens. And when it happens, I'm willing to bet the Euro picks up on it.

You're probably right, I'm just impatient for an Atlantic storm to track.
A Yellow Circle by Saturday or Sunday? The blog would really come alive then!
222. FOREX
Quoting 221. hurricanewatcher61:

A Yellow Circle by Saturday or Sunday? The blog would really come alive then!


We would finally get some eyebrows raised.
Quoting LargoFl:
Florida Weather Blog.............................................. ............................

The Florida weather blog is a treasure trove of busted forecasts. Here's what it was supposed to look like at 0800 EDT yesterday, as predicted by the GFS eight days earlier, on June 3...



This is the accumulated rainfall from June 3 to June 11, as predicted by the GFS. Good thing Grothar and the rest of our friends in south Florida had their boats at the ready...



I'm sure this particular blown forecast was a just a fluke, however. The GFS for June 20 will surely be right. :-)
Sat Sun Mon Tues Wed , GFS starts to develop a low by Wed. It would be in the 5-day outlook.
WKC would enjoy the moment for sure if it comes true.
Corrected--WCK
Quoting 220. FOREX:


You're probably right, I'm just impatient for an Atlantic storm to track.

We'll get something eventually. Keep in mind that even in active years it is not at all unusual for nothing to form in June. 2004 didn't see Alex until August 1.
Goodness! I finally hit triple digits.
The GFS has a severe weather event in a week or so...I realize GFS is not doing well with tropical cyclones.
230. FOREX
Quoting 228. hurricanewatcher61:

Goodness! I finally hit triple digits.


Where do you live? I'm in Panama City beach.
Quoting FOREX:

You're probably right, I'm just impatient for an Atlantic storm to track.

Say you had a date for Friday and she stands you up with some plausible excuse. You set the date for the next Friday, and she stands you up again, and with a much less plausible excuse. You try for the next Friday and, when it comes, she does it again. Would you say that dating in general is the problem, or do you think it might be that particular girl?
232. FOREX
Quoting 231. sar2401:


Say you had a date for Friday and she stands you up with some plausible excuse. You set the date for the next Friday, and she stands you up again, and with a much less plausible excuse. You try for the next Friday and, when it comes, she does it again. Would you say that dating in general is the problem, or do you think it might be that particular girl?


LOL. I hear ya' SAR. Just impatient, that's all.
Quoting 223. sar2401:


The Florida weather blog is a treasure trove of busted forecasts. Here's what it was supposed to look like at 0800 EDT yesterday, as predicted by the GFS eight days earlier, on June 3...



This is the accumulated rainfall from June 3 to June 11, as predicted by the GFS. Good thing Grothar and the rest of our friends in south Florida had their boats at the ready...



I'm sure this particular blown forecast was a just a fluke, however. The GFS for June 20 will surely be right. :-)


weather is unpredictable, its possible the GFS is right. I think the model was thrown off with what was 90L
Close-ups of Hackleburg.





Quoting Hurricanes101:


weather is unpredictable, its possible the GFS is right. I think the model was thrown off with what was 90L

How is it possible the GFS was right? The prediction was clearly wrong. Weather is unpredictable, which is why we have forecasts. If a forecast result is wrong, the reason for it being wrong would be a point of discussion. That doesn't mean it was any less wrong, especially when it was really wrong.

Original F-scale:
F5 Tornado Damage ...I cannot fathom the horror these folks went through..

This is classic F5 damage. The Bridge Creek/Moore, Oklahoma, tornado of 3 May 1999 leveled this house, swept the foundation almost completely clean, shredded the house remains into small pieces and scattered the debris downwind to the northeast (rear). The house was relatively well-contructed with slab-to-wall anchor bolts evenly spaced around the bottom plate. Some of those bolts can be seen in this photo, protruding upward from just inside the edges of the concrete slab.
Quoting FOREX:


LOL. I hear ya' SAR. Just impatient, that's all.

Maybe it's just me, but I would become a lot less patient if I was putting my faith in a model that has been stiffing me for weeks. Maybe it's time to ask Ms Euro or Ms UKMET out for a date and leave Ms GFS on the back burner for now, at least until she straightens up and flies right. :-)
Forex, Central Florida-Orlando. Been here for about a year now. Born and raised on the space coast though.
Quoting 153. Grothar:




We agree.


Trash.....Crown.......Trash......Crown.........Tr ash........Crown......eeeeenie meenie minie mo.....pick a model and let it go!
Quoting 223. sar2401:


The Florida weather blog is a treasure trove of busted forecasts. Here's what it was supposed to look like at 0800 EDT yesterday, as predicted by the GFS eight days earlier, on June 3...



This is the accumulated rainfall from June 3 to June 11, as predicted by the GFS. Good thing Grothar and the rest of our friends in south Florida had their boats at the ready...



I'm sure this particular blown forecast was a just a fluke, however. The GFS for June 20 will surely be right. :-)


I was prepared here in Orlando.

Quoting Naga5000:


I was prepared here in Orlando.


Now that's a good way to recycle beer cans. :-)
Quoting 237. sar2401:


Maybe it's just me, but I would become a lot less patient if I was putting my faith in a model that has been stiffing me for weeks. Maybe it's time to ask Ms Euro or Ms UKMET out for a date and leave Ms GFS on the back burner for now, at least until she straightens up and flies right. :-)
I tend to get more patient after I take my prescription drugs!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I tend to get more patient after I take my prescription drugs!

You have a point there. I can put up with almost anything once those pain pills kick in. :-)
ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET, FIM what are they? They are all computer models. The ECMWF runs twice a day 00z and 12z and goes out to 240 hrs. has a very high resolution grid, not sure of the specifics. The GFS runs four times a day 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z and it goes out to 384 hrs. it too has a very high resolution, not as high as the ECMWF if I'm not mistaken. The CMC runs twice a day 00z and 12z and goes out to 240 hrs. The NAVGEM runs four times a day and it goes out to 180 hrs. The UKMET runs twice a day it goes out to 120 hrs. and the FIM is an experimental model which has many different resolutions and it goes out to 336 hrs. For me when the ECMWF, GFS, and FIM shows a storm in the 7 day range I start to watch and take it seriously. The GFS is probably out to lunch, suffering convective feedback as some have pointed out, but I'll never forget how well the GFS did with TS Debby's track. At the same time it did horrible with Hurricane Isaac's track, while the ECMWF did well.
Quoting 245. PedleyCA:


Excellent album!! Hello, Is there anybody in there?
Quoting 244. GTstormChaserCaleb:

ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET, FIM what are they? They are all computer models. The ECMWF runs twice a day 00z and 12z and goes out to 240 hrs. has a very high resolution grid, not sure of the specifics. The GFS runs four times a day 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z and it goes out to 384 hrs. it too has a very high resolution, not as high as the ECMWF if I'm not mistaken. The CMC runs twice a day 00z and 12z and goes out to 240 hrs. The NAVGEM runs four times a day and it goes out to 180 hrs. The UKMET runs twice a day it goes out to 120 hrs. and the FIM is an experimental model which has many different resolutions and it goes out to 336 hrs. For me when the ECMWF, GFS, and FIM shows a storm in the 7 day range I start to watch and take it seriously. The GFS is probably out to lunch, suffering convective feedback as some have pointed out, but I'll never forget how well the GFS did with TS Debby's track. At the same time it did horrible with Hurricane Isaac's track, while the ECMWF did well.

I think GFS nailed Debby like 2 weeks out? Or some such crazy number of hours.
Now time for some daily dose of DOOM!!!

Quoting 248. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Now time for some daily dose of DOOM!!!




Only 11 days out, there's still room on my boat from post 240. Tickets are going fast. :)
Quoting 247. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I think GFS nailed Debby like 2 weeks out? Or some such crazy number of hours.


For every Debby there are hundreds of nothings.
Quoting 223. sar2401:


The Florida weather blog is a treasure trove of busted forecasts. Here's what it was supposed to look like at 0800 EDT yesterday, as predicted by the GFS eight days earlier, on June 3...



This is the accumulated rainfall from June 3 to June 11, as predicted by the GFS. Good thing Grothar and the rest of our friends in south Florida had their boats at the ready...



I'm sure this particular blown forecast was a just a fluke, however. The GFS for June 20 will surely be right. :-)


If the GFS keeps forecasting some type of a storm for Florida, it may get it right eventually..........and then on the other hand, probably not....LOL
Quoting 249. Naga5000:



Only 11 days out, there's still room on my boat from post 240. Tickets are going fast. :)
LOL, we may need a bigger boat, there is about 2.8 million in the Metro Area. ;)




hurricane Cristina is weakening fast at 8pm tonight on june 12 2014
Quoting 208. hurricanewatcher61:

A Panhandle landfall, a stall, then exit stage right! Interesting run on the 18Z


lets hope not!!!
So yesterday and today me and my family/friends went to Schlitterbahn, I was probably there for about 16 hours total the 2 days. So they give us a 20% chance of rain saying "a storm or two may break the cap and move in our direction". So at about 5:30 I see we were under a tornado watch... 40% chance of storms and now they are coming full force... One of the few days I will ever wish these storms weaken. My windows are really thin, need new windows anyways but would rather it not be from baseball size hail that's been reported near Abilene.

This is certainly a change of events for me and was certainly unexpected...

California is jealous of our rain surplus.From yesterday..
Cristina is quickly weakening. About 10 knots of southwesterly wind shear is helping to ingest dry air into the circulation of the storm, which is eroding the eyewall and causing convection in the northwest quadrant to warm. The eye is only faintly visible on infrared satellite.

SAB came down to T4.5/77kt, but UW-CIMSS ADT is still at T5.7/107.2kt. I'd set the intensity at 105kt since winds usually deteriorate slower than what satellite estimates suggest.

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET, FIM what are they? They are all computer models. The ECMWF runs twice a day 00z and 12z and goes out to 240 hrs. has a very high resolution grid, not sure of the specifics. The GFS runs four times a day 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z and it goes out to 384 hrs. it too has a very high resolution, not as high as the ECMWF if I'm not mistaken. The CMC runs twice a day 00z and 12z and goes out to 240 hrs. The NAVGEM runs four times a day and it goes out to 180 hrs. The UKMET runs twice a day it goes out to 120 hrs. and the FIM is an experimental model which has many different resolutions and it goes out to 336 hrs. For me when the ECMWF, GFS, and FIM shows a storm in the 7 day range I start to watch and take it seriously. The GFS is probably out to lunch, suffering convective feedback as some have pointed out, but I'll never forget how well the GFS did with TS Debby's track. At the same time it did horrible with Hurricane Isaac's track, while the ECMWF did well.

I posted a chart in the last blog that compares the four major models and how accurate they've been, on average, since 1996. The Euro is the clear winner, with the UKMET trailing, and the GFS and CMC about tied for third. The Euro, while it does sometimes miss cyclogenesis, rarely shows a low that doesn't form. The GFS and CMC, especially since their last "upgrades", have become notorious for showing ghost storms that never occur. The GFS performance since June 1 has been particularly bad, with accuracy actually going negative for a couple of days in since May 15. I know there was a planned upgrade scheduled for 2014 that was supposed to increase the resolution out to 10 days. It appears that this upgrade not only didn't work, but it has decreased the resolution, and hence accuracy.

For all my doubts about the GFS forecast when there is no low yet developed, the GFS does a very creditable job of predicting track once it has a low to work with. When a low finally develops, the GFS is, or, at least, has been, a very good model to put some faith in terms of track. We'll see if the model upgrade affected the accuracy there as well. The performance with 90L was certainly not encouraging.
No need to turn the sprinklers on here in Palm Beach Gardens tonight...
Quoting 249. Naga5000:



Only 11 days out, there's still room on my boat from post 240. Tickets are going fast. :)


With all the junk in the oceans these days, all you need is a fishing net and you can build your own trash raft. :P
Timeline appears consistent with the tropical wave over South America that's supposed to spawn the nonexistent storm on the GFS.

Much more likely we see Douglas on the Pacific side than Arthur on the Atlantic.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

I think GFS nailed Debby like 2 weeks out? Or some such crazy number of hours.

It did indeed. The CMC nailed 2013's Andrea very well also. Had it almost from formation to the track across Florida and up the East Coast. The CMC had just undergone a major upgrade, and many of us were quite excited, hoping that the Canadians had really made a model breakthrough.

Then came the rest of the 2013 season. The CMC not only missed almost every subsequent storm but developed a strong TS or hurricane every weekend headed straight at me in Alabama. Every weekend. After 5 weeks of that, I pretty much ignored the CMC for the rest of the season. In terms of tropical storm formation, the GFS is in pretty much the same league.

Admiral David Beatty, at the Battle of Jutland in 1914, spent the day watching some of his finest ships being blown up and sunk. He turned to one of his captains and said, in a discouraged voice, "There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships to-day." That's how I feel about the GFS.
Very likely that there's a tornado with this storm.

Quoting 262. KoritheMan:

Timeline appears consistent with the tropical wave over South America that's supposed to spawn the nonexistent storm on the GFS.

Much more likely we see Douglas on the Pacific side than Arthur on the Atlantic.


I see a nice low off the mid-atlantic coast.
Quoting 265. washingtonian115:

I see a nice low off the mid-atlantic coast.


A decidedly baroclinic low. ;)
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Where have all the craters gone?


Canada Tries Turning Up Heat on Obama as Keystone Stalled

Obama's Record on Climate Change Ain't Over Till It's Over

Indian Point's Tritium Problem and the N.R.C.'s Regulatory Problem

* Dinosaurs 'neither warm nor cold blooded'

Crayfish may experience form of anxiety


Great tits' 'black ties' smaller in the city




*** Help needed now for climate refugees


!!! Synchronized brain waves enable rapid learning



!!! When good people do bad things: Being in a group makes some people lose touch with their personal moral beliefs

Why Diplodocus did not put all her eggs in one basket

*** Manipulating and detecting ultrahigh frequency sound waves: 1,000 times higher resolution ultrasound images possible




!!! Scientists discover link between climate change and ocean currents over 6 million years

*** Quantum computation: Fragile yet error-free



!!! Long-range tunneling of quantum particles



* Rise and fall of prehistoric penguin populations charted

*** New evidence for oceans of water deep in the Earth: Water bound in mantle rock alters view of Earth's composition

*** Findings may advance iron-rich, cadmium-free crops

China pollution arrests rise as Beijing pushes green agenda

*** Anger rises as India swelters under record heatwave

* Ford lowering fuel economy ratings on 6 vehicles

Galveston officials contend with seaweed invasion


* Australia says pollution falling at Great Barrier Reef

Brazil's World Cup also a test bed for climate change

*** Appeals court says Oregon teens in climate change case deserve hearing

Pacific nations look to increase tuna fishing fees

Is the nation's 'greenest' utility green enough? Boulder says no.

How Obama's Climate Goals Will Play in Silicon Valley

What the US Navy can learn from jellyfish

Astronaut Tweets Sunny View of World Cup Host Sao Paulo



* Genetically, There's No Such Thing as a Mexican

'Beast' Asteroid Looks Like a Beauty in Radar Images

Quoting 262. KoritheMan:

Timeline appears consistent with the tropical wave over South America that's supposed to spawn the nonexistent storm on the GFS.

Much more likely we see Douglas on the Pacific side than Arthur on the Atlantic.



Douglas better be a strong hurricane. It's too good of a name not to be.

Plus, all the Douglas's I know are [explicit] anyways. :P
Quoting 266. KoritheMan:



A decidedly baroclinic low. ;)
It won't be tropical but with the warm sst's off the east coast you never know (Shrug).
Quoting 268. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Douglas better be a strong hurricane. It's too good of a name not to be.

Plus, all the Douglas's I know are [explicit] anyways. :P


You can say assholes. I've seen you say it before.
Quoting 264. MAweatherboy1:

Very likely that there's a tornado with this storm.



Now a new warning stating that it has a confirmed tornado. Very unusual storm. The storms have all been moving south to southeast this evening, but all of a sudden this storm has been moving southwest, which is weird because it had been moving southeast like the others. It almost looks like a cell merger may have dragged it in that direction. Storms hardly ever move with any sort of westerly component, although I think Scott Lincoln said earlier today that the Jarrell, TX tornado moved southwest. Rotation is looking much weaker now but there were several frames in a row where a fairly intense velocity couplet could be tracked as it moved southwest.
Wow
Cristina had rapid intensification
Now it's rapid deintensification
273. FOREX
Quoting 272. wunderkidcayman:

Wow
Cristina had rapid intensification
Now it's rapid deintensification


Did you see 18Z GFS? If only the EURO would latch on
Quoting 256. SouthCentralTx:

So yesterday and today me and my family/friends went to Schlitterbahn, I was probably there for about 16 hours total the 2 days. So they give us a 20% chance of rain saying "a storm or two may break the cap and move in our direction". So at about 5:30 I see we were under a tornado watch... 40% chance of storms and now they are coming full force... One of the few days I will ever wish these storms weaken. My windows are really thin, need new windows anyways but would rather it not be from baseball size hail that's been reported near Abilene.

This is certainly a change of events for me and was certainly unexpected...




Very unexpected. Considering the movement of the various cells, they seem to be converging over Lake Buchannon with a general drift south. Based on the radar hook, there is a tornado near Lake Buchannon as well
Beautiful CME blasting off from the Sun this evening after a moderate solar flare earlier-





It should mostly or completely miss us on Earth as the sunspot that produced it isn't centered well on us.
I'm shadowing my first shift at the NWS in Ruskin tomorrow morning, I won't be getting paid as its a volunteer opportunity, but who cares. I'm excited to get any valuable experience learning NWS employee skills as student, and just really excited in general to work a full shift in meteorology for the first time. I'm humbled to get a chance to do this as any chance of meteorology experience as a student is hard to come by, yet extremely crucial for getting a job in meteorology after graduation.

Good luck to anyone else who may be a student and is looking to do the same as me.
Wow! I had a lot of big T-storms last night at like 2AM and Like no rain from 8AM to 4:20pm and now from 4:30pm to now it has just been rain and a lot more coming tonight!
Quoting 271. MAweatherboy1:


Now a new warning stating that it has a confirmed tornado. Very unusual storm. The storms have all been moving south to southeast this evening, but all of a sudden this storm has been moving southwest, which is weird because it had been moving southeast like the others. It almost looks like a cell merger may have dragged it in that direction. Storms hardly ever move with any sort of westerly component, although I think Scott Lincoln said earlier today that the Jarrell, TX tornado moved southwest. Rotation is looking much weaker now but there were several frames in a row where a fairly intense velocity couplet could be tracked as it moved southwest.

Scott would be correct. The tornado tracked SSW over Jarrell and then NW of Austin in Cedar Park and finally fizzled out just SW of Oak Hill
Quoting 261. Xyrus2000:



With all the junk in the oceans these days, all you need is a fishing net and you can build your own trash raft. :P
Well, you might want to get of the internet and hurry before the trash is gone because I heard on channel 13 news here in Melbourne that people are rushing to the ocean to grab enough junk to build their own TRASH RAFT!!
Here's a picture of that tornado in Texas just a few minutes ago (likely no longer on the ground).

Quoting 261. Xyrus2000:



With all the junk in the oceans these days, all you need is a fishing net and you can build your own trash raft. :P
Well, you might want to get of the internet and hurry before the trash is gone because I heard on channel 13 news here in Melbourne that people are rushing to the ocean to grab enough junk to build their own TRASH RAFT!!
Rain-wrapped cone tornado north of Bertram, TX. As MAweatherboy pointed out, the tornado moved southwest, which is an unusual movement for tornadoes.

Quoting 248. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Now time for some daily dose of DOOM!!!




Apparently this model is evil enough to spinup what looks almost oddly analogous to hurricane Charley, thankfully there is nothing to worry about.

One could be mean and scare people who don't know any better, thank God the general public doesn't look at forecast models, TV mets would be loaded with calls of people panicking during hurricane season over 300 hr doom forecasts.
Hook just West of Burnet? If so this is getting crazy...

Edit: Just got warned



Quoting 284. SouthCentralTx:

Hook just West of Burnet? If so this is getting crazy...

Edit: Just got warned





what is north of san antonio that is producing the ploom going north the last hour???
Quoting KoritheMan:


You can say assholes. I've seen you say it before.

I get jumped by others lol.
Poster from Austin here. Are these cells near Llano and Burnet merging?
Quoting 2. ricderr:

i remember when we saw the hot water in the GOM and how it ramped up storms........now we see it in the EPAC.....glad that both of these h-canes have been a fish event
Agreed... max beauty, min deadly ...

Quoting 273. FOREX:



Did you see 18Z GFS? If only the EURO would latch on

Yes I did
Euro May or may not latch on
Evening all. Currently we are experiencing a bit of a lull in the stormy wx, but looking at the satloops I can tell we'll be up for another "round" pretty soon as it seems this ULL will continue drifting our way. We had some wonderful storms over New Providence today, with squally rains, wind and lightning impacting every part of the island at some point or other during the day. It made for some flooded areas, but much of the water drained fairly quickly..

I also noted the rapid deterioration of Cristine, almost as quick a de-escalation as the escalation we saw overnight.
Quoting 285. watchingnva:


what is north of san antonio that is producing the ploom going north the last hour???



It's the Mexican Free Tailed Bats that come out every evening in the spring summer. Each night several of these come out. :)
Unless they produce lightning that isn't the bats. I've got a clear view of the Killeen cell and that blob. It's a storm.

Quoting 291. SouthCentralTx:




It's the Mexican Free Tailed Bats that come out every evening in the spring summer. Each night several of these come out. :)
Heavy rain and lightning

Quoting 292. entrelac:

Unless they produce lightning that isn't the bats. I've got a clear view of the Killeen cell and that blob. It's a storm.




He's speaking of the green/yellow stuff going north away from San Antonio right on the northern borderline of Bexar County. It looks like something you would see from a massive wild fire on radar.
Hmm
Purple in the SW Carib
Although not much it's still more than earlier today



Quoting 291. SouthCentralTx:




It's the Mexican Free Tailed Bats that come out every evening in the spring summer. Each night several of these come out. :)


makes sense, as it is originating from the natural bridge caverns area...
Quoting 294. SouthCentralTx:



He's speaking of the green/yellow stuff going north away from San Antonio right on the northern borderline of Bexar County. It looks like something you would see from a massive wild fire on radar.


exactly...i was thinking, did a fire start. but bats make more sense...

edit: I bet that is a sight to see. to cause that much reflectivity, they amount of bats must be massive.
Quoting 294. SouthCentralTx:



He's speaking of the green/yellow stuff going north away from San Antonio right on the northern borderline of Bexar County. It looks like something you would see from a massive wild fire on radar.

Ah, I was looking at the wrong blob. He is correct. Those are the bats from Bracken Cave. It's said to be the worlds largest bat colony.
299. FOREX
Quoting 295. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm
Purple in the SW Carib
Although not much it's still more than earlier today






Right now purple is my favorite color.
Quoting 298. entrelac:


Ah, I was looking at the wrong blob. He is correct. Those are the bats from Bracken Cave. It's said to be the worlds largest bat colony.


would love to see that, imagine its amazing. from a distance of course.
Quoting 297. watchingnva:



exactly...i was thinking, did a fire start. but bats make more sense...

edit: I bet that is a sight to see. to cause that much reflectivity, they amount of bats must be massive.
Estimates are around 20 million bats.
Cristina is going far from Mexico but will be just over the Mexican Island Socorro in the next days.
Quoting 298. entrelac:


Ah, I was looking at the wrong blob. He is correct. Those are the bats from Bracken Cave. It's said to be the worlds largest bat colony.


Perfect example why blob watching should be done by the experts. :)
Oh Gee! GORGEOUS evening here in Clearwater Beach Florida. Wow. Look at that full moon coming up over the horizon and the sounds of the waves gently crashing along the shores of the white sandy beaches. UNREAL!!

Alyssa
Great tornado picture of the twister in Texas earlier!!

Tornado signature indicated west of Austin, Texas.
Quoting 308. TylerStanfield:

Tornado signature indicated west of Austin, Texas.


Next frame shows a new vortex has formed further southwest, and is stronger.

Heading appears to be in a Southeast or East-Southeast direction.
EDIT: New Image
Quoting 309. TylerStanfield:


Next frame shows a new vortex has formed further southwest, and is stronger.

Heading appears to be in a Southeast or East-Southeast direction.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
941 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TANGLEWOOD FOREST...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 939 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAGO VISTA...OR 11
MILES WEST OF ANDERSON MILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BEE CAVE BY 950 PM CDT...
MANSFIELD DAM BY 955 PM CDT...
WEST LAKE HILLS BY 1005 PM CDT...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF TANGLEWOOD FOREST BY 1010 PM CDT...
Have the military personel and their families been evacuated from Socorro Island?...
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm shadowing my first shift at the NWS in Ruskin tomorrow morning, I won't be getting paid as its a volunteer opportunity, but who cares. I'm excited to get any valuable experience learning NWS employee skills as student, and just really excited in general to work a full shift in meteorology for the first time. I'm humbled to get a chance to do this as any chance of meteorology experience as a student is hard to come by, yet extremely crucial for getting a job in meteorology after graduation.

Good luck to anyone else who may be a student and is looking to do the same as me.

Congratulations, Jed. Many a bigwig has gotten their start in the janitor's closet, so to speak. If I may make a suggestion, use your printer to make some quick and dirty business cards and hand them out to everyone you meet. You can buy business card blanks from Walmart or any place that sells office supplies. If you can, stick a small head shot of yourself on the card. There's a much better chance people will remember you as being different from other summer volunteers.
Quoting 311. MeteorologistTV:

Have the military personel and their families been evacuated from Socorro Island?...
Probably not, since nobody seems to think it's inhabited -- all the talk about "headed away from land" and "fish storm". :-)
314. 1344
Evacuations don't happen in Soccoro Island. It rarely gets damage from hurricanes. It is too high to get surge damage, and mudslides are rare there. They even escaped Linda 97 okay.
Don't do anything stupid Jed.
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Have the military personel and their families been evacuated from Socorro Island?...

I don't know any official information but I doubt it. The naval base has hurricane shelters, and it exists, in part, to render aid to mariners. The island is not subject to storm surge from hurricanes, or at least the populated areas, since the island has very few beaches and is generally high in elevation. The Islands are hit fairly frequently by weakening hurricanes, as Cristina is forecast to be by the time it gets to the Islands. The Mexican Navy is used to dealing with this kind of event.
Quoting 311. MeteorologistTV:

Have the military personel and their families been evacuated from Socorro Island?...
Quoting 313. CaneFreeCR:

Probably not, since nobody seems to think it's inhabited -- all the talk about "headed away from land" and "fish storm". :-)


Yeah it seems that people don't know

Anyway
In 1957 the Mexican Navy established a naval base on Socorro and has had a permanent presence on the island since then
The naval station in the south of Socorro Island has a population of 45 (staff).
Quoting 1344:
Evacuations don't happen in Soccoro Island. It rarely gets damage from hurricanes. It is too high to get surge damage, and mudslides are rare there. They even escaped Linda 97 okay.

Sorry, 1344, I didn't realize we were cross posting. I agree, however. I've been there diving and was impressed by both the facilities and caliber of the sailors in the Mexican Navy that I saw. I imagine ti would take a much bigger storm than Cristina to cause an evacuation.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
2:30 AM IST June 13 2014
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm Nanauk over east central and adjoining west central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards with a speed about 5 knots during past 3 hours and lay centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 18.4N 63.3E, about 1020 km west southwest of Mumbai, 810 km west southwest of Veraval and 510 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

The system would weaken gradually after 12 hours as it would enter into relatively colder sea and experience dry air entrapment and high vertical wind shear

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 15.0N to 21.0N and 57.0E to 65.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -87C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 988 hpa..
What goes up must come down. They just don't hold onto that super strength for long.
Images from the Navy site aren't posting. What's up with that? 
321. FOREX
00Z GFS will be in action in 14 minutes.
Where is WKC. This should put a smile on his face

Nanauk. Strange looking storm

324. FOREX
GFS has started.
325. 1344
Regarding Socorro Island, I imagine they have good facilitates. It would take a Linda-like storm to maybe cause an evacuation. The odds of severe damage are low solely based on the fact that ~200 people live there.
Tornado threat has diminished for Austin.
Areas west reported funnel clouds and a tornado on the ground around 9:30 CT, with reports of fences and trees down south of Bee Caves.
The remnants of the vortex are kicking up some high winds though! Gusting to tropical storm force, easily.
Quoting 322. Grothar:

Where is WKC. This should put a smile on his face



And you didn't smile? :)
Quoting 324. FOREX:

GFS has started.


I'll bet it shows a storm in the Caribbean.
329. FOREX
Quoting 328. Grothar:



I'll bet it shows a storm in the Caribbean.


Wouldn't it be great if it showed two storms?
Quoting 327. Abacosurf:


And you didn't smile? :)


Maybe a little.
Quoting 328. Grothar:



I'll bet it shows a storm in the Caribbean.

In about 8 to 10 days
Quoting 331. SunnyDaysFla:


In about 8 to 10 days


:)
Recent Aqua of Cristina.



I remember this storm..

Goodnight everyone.
Quoting 268. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Douglas better be a strong hurricane. It's too good of a name not to be.

Plus, all the Douglas's I know are [explicit] anyways. :P
NO!! that name does not sound strong imo, prefer Genevieve to be a strong hurricane.
We'll get our first invest around the 21st, it blow up and head for the Yucatan Cuba gap. This 60mph TS will look great and then it'll hit the Gulf. NHC will have it landing as a moderate TS, it'll get sheared, eventually lose all status and like a dud, it'll drop some decent rains as an open low. Conjecture will go crazy followed by disappointment. Welcome to 2013 instant replay. Who knows though, only takes one. Looking for that CV that makes it to the Bahamas and majors up the EC. CV's due to SAL and low SST's that develop late may be where the action is this year.
As Kori mentioned earlier, the tropical wave over South America is what the ECMWF is picking up on for development in the East Pacific in the extended range. Wind shear is only marginally conducive (10-20kt) right now thanks to outflow from Cristina, but it's expected to weaken over the following days as the hurricane weakens and the wave develops an anticyclone of its own.

All the models keep it broad over the next 5-7 days, but we'll see what happens.

Quoting 304. Grothar:



Perfect example why blob watching should be done by the experts. :)
Pishaw. You and I both know that is utter nonsense. Blobs should be watched, stalked even, by everyone. Equal opportunity blob watching and all that.
Quoting 322. Grothar:

Where is WKC. This should put a smile on his face



Lol more like me laughing my self off my desk out my office out my building out the car into home etc...


Anyway won't be sticking around to look at the full GFS 00Z run lots of work to do in the early hours of tomorrow
But for now 00Z sees disturbance forming as early as 48hrs


Anyway really people good night and I'll be out May pop back in around 6am-ish

Quoting 337. DeepSeaRising:

We'll get our first invest around the 21st, it blow up and head for the Yucatan Cuba gap. This 60mph TS will look great and then it'll hit the Gulf. NHC will have it landing as a moderate TS, it'll get sheared, eventually lose all status and like a dud, it'll drop some decent rains as an open low. Conjecture will go crazy followed by disappointment. Welcome to 2013 instant replay. Who knows though, only takes one. Looking for that CV that makes it to the Bahamas and majors up the EC. CV's due to SAL and low SST's that develop late may be where the action is this year.

I think we'll get our first invest around the 2nd of June.
Quoting 340. wunderkidcayman:


Lol more like me laughing my self off my desk out my office out my building out the car into home etc...


Anyway won't be sticking around to look at the full GFS 00Z run lots of work to do in the early hours of tomorrow
But for now 00Z sees disturbance forming as early as 48hrs


Anyway really people good night and I'll be out May pop back in around 6am-ish



Oh and if anyone wants to question this I said Disturbance not low
That is what the models show
I felt like I said 6 days 2 days ago :D
GFS crazy
I would really like to see what Dr. Masters take is on the whole GFS scenario, if he buys it or if he thinks it's out to lunch.
Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I would really like to see what Dr. Masters take is on the whole GFS scenario, if he buys it or if he thinks it's out to lunch.



GFS is still having feedback errors on the 0Z run... noted again at the same usual 138 blowup causing a low to form. I will note though that the shower activity has increased on days 4-5 but nothing of a low pressure before 5 days. We still need to see the "Low" develop by 4-5 days at most AND have the Euro on board. Outside of that... GFS shows nothing by Day 5.
HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina has weakened during the last several hours. The eye has
lost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images. In
addition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the
convection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to
mid-level dry air and some westerly shear. Dvorak intensity numbers
from all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is
lowered to 105 kt based on those estimates. Cristina is expected to
continue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment,
including progressively colder waters during the next several days.
The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account
for the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the
intensity model consensus IVCN.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico. After that time, the weakening and shallower
system should turn westward steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in
the latest guidance.
Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I would really like to see what Dr. Masters take is on the whole GFS scenario, if he buys it or if he thinks it's out to lunch.


I think the GFS is marooned on some tropical island with a year supply of liquor and beer.
Quoting 349. BaltimoreBrian:




Odds on that @ 252hrs is about 3.5% :)
Quoting scottsvb:
Odds on that @ 252hrs is about 3.5% :)
That high? ;)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
5:30 AM IST June 13 2014
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Nanauk over west central and adjoining east central Arabian sea moved west northwestwards with a speed about 5 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian sea near 18.4N 62.9E, about 1080 km west southwest of Mumbai, 850 km west southwest of Veraval and 510 km east southeast of Masirah island (Oman).

The system would weaken gradually as it would enter into relatively colder sea and experience dry air entrapment and high vertical wind shear.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 15.0N to 21.0N 57.0E to 65.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -91C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm in 988 hPa.

The system is entering into colder sea with lower ocean heat content. It is already experiencing high wind shear (25-30 knots), and further there will be dry air entrapment. As a result the cyclone would start weakening. The system would continue in west northwest movement under the influence of the subtropical ridge to the north of the system up to next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 18.7N 62.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 19.1N 61.7E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 19.9N 60.6E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS 20.7N 59.4E - 25 knots (Depression)
Guess who's in the circle of no rain frame 1-5 basically surrounded by rain right over the ton in Antonio. lol typical...


However I really wish someone put a study on how much the I-35 Corridor influences storms to strengthen because over the past few years I have just seen storms blow up when they reach the I-35 area, at times they intensify right over me quite often. The flat land that ends up leading into the hill country and just higher terrain has to provide extra lift for when the gulf moisture comes off the coast.


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST June 13 2014
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 20.0N 117.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary


South China Sea tropical depression reported by the JMA.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Schedule

The Blue Angels just buzzed by my house, and Mom got a video of them flying over downtown Nashville. They are in town for the Great Tennessee Air Show down in Smyrna, TN from June 14-15.

Google Image in case anyone hasn't heard of these pilots:



Not that I haven't loved watching the Blue Angels growing up in Gulf Breeze and Pensacola, Fl. but they are a needless expense and a needless risk to pilots too fly and risk their lives for the sake of entertainment.
Would rather see those dollars going to help Veterans.
They had a recruitment purpose during the Cold War. That function is no longer required.
If you think them a boost to local economies, let private enterprise and Chamber of Commerce's pursue handling Air Shows and let these dollars be used for Veterans.

I imagine my post will get flagged because it is off topic, just make sure to flag the other off topic post about the Blue Angels as well. Just sayin'.

And remember, if another Blue Angel Pilot flies and dies for the sake of providing you entertainment, remember you supported your tax dollars being spent toward this instead of going to help the 20 something Veterans a day who turn to suicide because they can't get the help they need.
Quoting SouthCentralTx:

That's the Balcones Escarpment. Wikipedia:

"The Balcones Fault Zone is a tensional structural system[1] in the U.S. state of Texas that runs approximately from the southwest part of the state near Del Rio to the north central region near Waco along Interstate 35. [...]

"The surface expression of the fault is the Balcones Escarpment,[7] which forms the eastern boundary of the Texas Hill Country and the western boundary of the Texas Coastal Plain and consists of cliffs and cliff-like structures. Subterranean features such as Wonder Cave and numerous other smaller caves are found along the fault zone."

You've got to visit Wonder Cave.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
8:30 AM IST June 13 2014
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nanauk over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards with a speed about 6 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered over west central Arabian Sea near 18.7N 62.7E, about 1080 km west southwest of Mumbai, 850 km west southwest of Veraval and 460 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

The system would continue to move northwestwards and weaken gradually as it would enter into relatively colder sea and experience dry air entrainment and high vertical wind shear.
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Guess who's in the circle of no rain frame 1-5 basically surrounded by rain right over the ton in Antonio. lol typical...I really wish someone put a study on how much the I-35 Corridor influences storms



I hear you!! Don't you just love it when you read the forecasts for rain along the I-35 corridor. I've had the misfortune of watching storms literally be a trickle in San Antonio and they travel in a tiny thin line about the width of I-35 (as if they are cars traveling on I-35) and explode when they get to Austin. I blame in on the popularity of Austin. There is no other explanation.

Last night was just plain old weird. Storms were heading east in Bandera county, then they suddenly went back west. And to boot we had decent thunder and lightening here and the storms were 50 miles away. Radar showed nothing. It was really weird.

Around 11 pm, I had given up on any rain when I saw storms fizzling in N Kendall county. (About 40 miles away) A few minutes later, I look out my window and a storm is brewing. It's like it came out of nowhere. I'm pretty far from I-35 btw.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Oh and if anyone wants to question this I said Disturbance not low
That is what the models show

It seems like you were saying a disturbance would form on Sunday two weeks ago also.

Be that as it may, how do you define disturbance? How does a disturbance show up on the GFS? If it's an area of disturbed weather, wouldn't that at least rate a mention in the NHC discussion, or do you have some other definition of disturbance? Assuming it's an area of disturbed weather, you're saying the NHC will call this out on Sunday in one of their discussions, correct? Just trying to get this straight, since some of your definitions and timelines get a little fluid at times.
Nanauk starting to weaken as it slowly approaches Oman



Still has some rather nasty storms with it though.
Quoting 350. Astrometeor:



I think the GFS is marooned on some tropical island with a year supply of liquor and beer.


And crow for protein.
364. FOREX
6Z GFS shows the low at 132 hours. That is 5 1/2 days from now. I know it has tended to push back the timing, but the timing has stuck the last three days. Maybe we now just look for the EURO for backup on this and start taking it a little more seriously.
what contractor g,e. lockheed responsible for the development of the gfs?
Good morning everyone, Just checked the 06Z GFS run, I will say that for some reason if the Euro does start to back this up in time and from the run to run outputs with a track towards Florida,we might want to start watching this a little more closely. I know it could be all wrong but better safe then sorry.Maybe the GFS is giving us a wake up call.
Lol. The GFS is not just giving us fits.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
251 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS
THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLEND MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR WIND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. THE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE NW GULF AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN BY MON. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
IS THE GFS INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HONDURAS
BY MON WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA ON
TUE. THE GFS SHOWS 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TUE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRONGER TROUGHING TO THE S AND THE RIDING TO THE N COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND UKMET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE GFS BY MON. ANY LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT HERE WOULD EITHER BE DUE TO OR INFLUENCE THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. GOING WITH THE ECMWF SIDES WITH FASTER TIMING FOR THE
WAVE TUE INTO WED AS ITS N PORTION CROSSES PORTIONS OF BAY OF
CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS
THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLEND MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR WIND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

ASCAT FROM 0244 UTC SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS THE RIDGING TO
THE NORTH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE WEST MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE GALE THAT IS OCCURRING. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 1930 UTC
SHOWED SEAS TO 13 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE CURRENT GALE REGION. THE
GFS AND ITS MWW3 ARE THE CLOSEST TO THE OBSERVATIONS.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRES
SYSTEM NEAR HONDURAS TUE INTO WED AND GENERATES WIDESPREAD 30 KT
WINDS AND 12-14 FT SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND WESTERN HONDURAS.
THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER. ONLY THE GEFS SHOWS ANY SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. LEANING ON THE ECMWF AND NWPS FOR THE UPDATED GRIDS
FROM MON ONWARD.
Already a moderate risk upgrade for tomorrow by the SPC. Looks like mainly a very large hail and damaging wind event, but isolated tornadoes are possible as well.



...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...CNTRL AND NRN KS...WRN IA...
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
MAINTAINING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INSTABILITY EVEN BEHIND THE DRYLINE DUE TO VERY STRONG HEATING
BENEATH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT. THIS ALL BUT ENSURES STORMS WILL
FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEB INTO TX. THE VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED AT FIRST.
GIANT HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEB INTO KS...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS
MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ESPECIALLY OVER NEB INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT
WHERE LCLS WILL REMAIN LOWER. MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AFTER
00Z...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT A SEVERE MCS...CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT
WIND ALONG WITH HAIL WILL TRAVEL EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO
WRN IA DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR SERN SD AS WELL.

LACK OF MORNING PRECIPITATION...FAVORABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TIMING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM MODE AND VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
HAVE ALL CONTRIBUTED TO THE FOCUSED UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR
THIS AREA.
Lol The GFS
144HR NAVGEM
00Z NAVGEM at 180HR
We still have a westerly flow across Florida. That's going to give the west coast the best chance of rain in the morning.
Eastcoast should see some strong storms later this afternoon.
GFS needs to stop embarrassing it's self....
gfs is a pretty good model especially with cv systems
Quoting islander101010:
gfs is a pretty good model especially with cv systems


wrong post
Quoting 373. washingtonian115:

GFS needs to stop embarrassing it's self....


Yes.The credibility of the model is going downhill very fast and if they don't do something soon to fix it, then create a new American model.
Quoting 374. islander101010:

gfs is a pretty good model especially with cv systems
It's been showing a system in the caribbean now for the past month.It has been stuck in the same time frame for a week now.It's sad.


MattRogers
5:55 AM EDT
Yes, the GFS "Season" is off strongly, haha
Quoting washingtonian115:
GFS needs to stop embarrassing it's self....


A blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. Or a guess they just die.

img src="
"/>
Here going back to 5/26

Here's one going back to 5/18, I had older ones but they got deleted

Good Morning.  Another rainy morning for a large part of the Gulf Coast.  Have been having to mow the long grass every ten days the last several months.  One of the rainiest Springs and now early Summers that I remember in recent years.  Those conditions for the Gulf and SE (rainy) will probably continue in the Winter and Spring of 2015 with El Nino.

My local Golf County Club is nervous; lots of weekend washouts this year so far in terms of the afternoons and no relief in sight at the moment..............They got real nervous when I broke down the El Nino scenario at the Pro Shop last month when they were complaining about the rain and slow business.......................... :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg


382. FOREX
Quoting 380. Sfloridacat5:

Here's one going back to 5/18, I had older ones but they got deleted




We all know the GFS failed thus far. Let's give the graphics a break and be a little more professional today.
gfs short range has been spot on. nw carib. development is a hard one
384. SLU
The GFS needs another upgrade to eradicate this issue it has with developing ghost storms in the WCAR this time every year...especially when the MJO is threatening to return.

I'm waiting for a nice Easterly flow to setup over Fl.
We are stuck in a pre-frontal type setup with a westerly flow.
That's been giving the Gulfcoast all the rain from these frontal boundaries.

We need to get the big tropical High setup and our summer pattern going.

FIM 9

Terrific interview with Michael Mann, Dir. of Penn State Earth System Science Center Link
Wind sheer is still very high in the Caribbean and Gulf at the moment, as it should be this time of the year, and June produces the Atlantic storms, if any, in the Western Gulf or BOC.  However, with the pending MJO pulse in the E-Pac, I would not put too much faith in the long-term models showing a Caribbean storm in the 240 hour time frame.......................More likely outcome is an E-Pac storm originating from the Pacific ITCZ near Central America.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg


Please tell me why we are surprised that a weather model is highly inaccurate in the 6 day and longer time frame again.
Quoting 354. SouthCentralTx:



However I really wish someone put a study on how much the I-35 Corridor influences storms to strengthen because over the past few years I have just seen storms blow up when they reach the I-35 area, at times they intensify right over me quite often. The flat land that ends up leading into the hill country and just higher terrain has to provide extra lift for when the gulf moisture comes off the coast.




You can find an excellent short weather paper on how geography and climate around San Antonio affects the weather in this area here:

Link

As a met student myself, I'm fascinated by the south central Texas weather patterns. I'm about 45 minutes SE of San Antonio in New Berlin.
Quoting Naga5000:
Please tell me why we are surprised that a weather model is highly inaccurate in the 6 day and longer time frame again.


Most of us realize the models have issues beyond the 3-5 day frame (even though the GFS goes to 16 days).

It's the members that take the models seriously and keep getting all hyped up every time they see a system in the Western Caribbean. You would think they would start to understand what is going on after seeing the same thing for at least a month.

Quoting 376. Tropicsweatherpr:



Yes.The credibility of the model is going downhill very fast and if they don't do something soon to fix it, then create a new American model.


Creating a new model isn't going to happen anytime soon. That takes resources, time, validation. It's not something you just idly whip up on a weekend.

Unfortunately with all the cuts to NWS and science in general, there isn't a whole lot left over for model development.
Quoting 382. FOREX:



We all know the GFS failed thus far. Let's give the graphics a break and be a little more professional today.


GFS hasn't failed us at all.....it's been pretty accurate up to 4-5 days and that's all we expect. Any model after 5 days will have errors
Quoting NewBerlinTX:


You can find an excellent short weather paper on how geography and climate around San Antonio affects the weather in this area here:

Link

As a met student myself, I'm fascinated by the south central Texas weather patterns. I'm about 45 minutes SE of San Antonio in New Berlin.


I graduated from U.T. (San Antonio) with a degree in Geography. I still have family in Boerne Tx right up the road from S.A.
San Antonio does have a pretty facinating weather setup, along with a unique geology.
I've hiked all over the hills just north of San Antonio looking for sink holes and caves.



Morning all... just a quick lookin before I depart... for all the pple whining about how horrible the GFS is, once again I remind you that the 5-day forecast the GFS has produced has been fine. Those expecting 6-10 day forecast to be accurate are not living in the real world. That shouldn't preclude our looking at the mid-range, just so long as we all understand its purpose.

A healthy reminder: it is model consensus that NHC respects. It's our misfortune that we don't have easy access to the other models for comparative purposes

Morning all... just a quick lookin before I depart... for all the pple whining about how horrible the GFS is, once again I remind you that the 5-day forecast the GFS has produced has been fine. Those expecting 6-10 day forecast to be accurate are not living in the real world. That shouldn't preclude our looking at the mid-range, just so long as we all understand its purpose.

A healthy reminder: it is model consensus that NHC respects. It's our misfortune that we don't have easy access to the other models for comparative purposes


respectively said...let's look at those 5 day models shall we?
cmc says to the EPAC>...hit me baby one more time.....is that another one brewing?

Good morning, everyone! It's gotten quite dark and gloomy outside; you know there's weather coming when the street lights are still on at 8:30 in the morning.

ecmwf says....will it be EPAC 4......atlantic basin 0

GFS says nada zilch...the other guys are smokin something

navgem says....me and gfs are tight...he don't see squat...so i aint seeing it either





Most of us realize the models have issues beyond the 3-5 day frame (even though the GFS goes to 16 days).

It's the members that take the models seriously and keep getting all hyped up every time they see a system in the Western Caribbean. You would think they would start to understand what is going on after seeing the same thing for at least a month.



after years of enjoying the WU experience....i've learned that logic....is not common to the average weather blogger
once again this morning you can go to earth.nullschool.net and see how the shear is in the gulf.....plus a beautiful view of cristina in the EPAC....and then wonder a bit more westward and see that there's not even a hint of an eastward push of winds to drive the kelvin wave over
404. VR46L
Quoting 401. ricderr:

navgem says....me and gfs are tight...he don't see squat...so i aint seeing it either








Err you might want to look again hint near Honduras



Quoting 376. Tropicsweatherpr:



Yes.The credibility of the model is going downhill very fast and if they don't do something soon to fix it, then create a new American model.
That's an overreaction Tropics. I see nothing wrong with the GFS, it's convective feedback that has been a flaw with this model for a very long time, just like ECMWF will miss the more shallow systems. Ever computer model has it's flaw, it's not perfect, just like humans are not perfect, and the NHC is not perfect. We are asking too much from models this far out, sure they'll get it right once in a blue moon, but if the models got it right every time, meteorologists might be out of a job. I still prefer the GFS model over all the models because of its handling of the synoptic and upper air patterns globally.
Err you might want to look again hint near Honduras



yes vr...i might have to agree with you......same system...just further east......now...with the other two in the epac......whom would you believe?
on the el nino front........the 30 day SOI is finally dropping again..for a time it's value has been where we would expect it if we were in a full fledged la nina event......now to coincide and show how screwy this all has become....once again the daily ENSO 3.4 value is below 5....now i think that the weekly average will have it at 5.....if you thought el nino would be declared in the spring...you can kiss that thought good bye.....and for those who expected it in june,....well...that's not happening either....and unless things change and drastically.....july is not too likely either
Quoting 395. BahaHurican:

Morning all... just a quick lookin before I depart... for all the pple whining about how horrible the GFS is, once again I remind you that the 5-day forecast the GFS has produced has been fine. Those expecting 6-10 day forecast to be accurate are not living in the real world. That shouldn't preclude our looking at the mid-range, just so long as we all understand its purpose.

A healthy reminder: it is model consensus that NHC respects. It's our misfortune that we don't have easy access to the other models for comparative purposes


For the sanity of this blog, it would be great if the GFS didn't run past 5 days.
Quoting 408. ricderr:

on the el nino front........the 30 day SOI is finally dropping again..for a time it's value has been where we would expect it if we were in a full fledged la nina event......now to coincide and show how screwy this all has become....once again the daily ENSO 3.4 value is below 5....now i think that the weekly average will have it at 5.....if you thought el nino would be declared in the spring...you can kiss that thought good bye.....and for those who expected it in june,....well...that's not happening either....and unless things change and drastically.....july is not too likely either


Another example why the experts don't hype or overreact and instead wait to see how it unfolds.
Quoting 409. jrweatherman:



For the sanity of this blog, it would be great if the GFS didn't run past 5 days.


But what would WKC do?
Quoting 408. ricderr:

on the el nino front........the 30 day SOI is finally dropping again..for a time it's value has been where we would expect it if we were in a full fledged la nina event......now to coincide and show how screwy this all has become....once again the daily ENSO 3.4 value is below 5....now i think that the weekly average will have it at 5.....if you thought el nino would be declared in the spring...you can kiss that thought good bye.....and for those who expected it in june,....well...that's not happening either....and unless things change and drastically.....july is not too likely either
The more likely scenario has always been the heart of summer towards fall, which increases the chance of an active winter pattern across the US, something similiar to what we saw in 1997 or 2009.
Quoting 411. scottsvb:



But what would WKC do?



lol, still find a way to develop a system in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 409. jrweatherman:



For the sanity of this blog, it would be great if the GFS didn't run past 5 days.
Quoting 411. scottsvb:



But what would WKC do?

I may agree on this one
MAY agree
I say if anything 7 days Max
Quoting 413. jrweatherman:




lol, still find a way to develop a system in the NW Caribbean.

Flagged
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes.The credibility of the model is going downhill very fast and if they don't do something soon to fix it, then create a new American model.


Overdevelopment in the early season in the GOM and Caribbean is a well known GFS bias. No model handles genesis five days and further out at all well. Some models do SOMETIMES (and ensembles help tell us when) handle the low wavenumber features (where the big troughs and ridges are) with skill out to ten days and this enables them to forecast the steering and (less effectively) intensity changes of systems that come off the African Coast, out to beyond ten days.

But if you have a reasonably busy life and a system is not already developed and in a well defined steering flow and is more than five days out, you are wasting your time to try to discern what might happen with a model generated system or a model generated region of good potential.

I'm old enough to remember when model forecasts were no good past day 3 and people slightly older than I remember the days of no models at all.
417. JRRP
Quoting jrweatherman:


Another example why the experts don't hype or overreact and instead wait to see how it unfolds.

+1
418. VR46L
Quoting 407. ricderr:

Err you might want to look again hint near Honduras



yes vr...i might have to agree with you......same system...just further east......now...with the other two in the epac......whom would you believe?


I tend to side with the one with the firepower and accuracy ..... but when the others are all showing signs that something is afoot at around 144-180 hours I tend to remember even the Euro can mess up ....

However Looking at this ... the euro would appear to be on the money ... lots of blobs heading into the EPAC Caribbean looks very hostile



Looks almost winter in the WV

Quoting jrweatherman:


For the sanity of this blog, it would be great if the GFS didn't run past 5 days.


Nah we should go the other way and someone should run it out to 2400 hours (about three months) every day just for entertainment value.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Overdevelopment in the early season in the GOM and Caribbean is a well known GFS bias. No model handles genesis five days and further out at all well. Some models do SOMETIMES (and ensembles help tell us when) handle the low wavenumber features (where the big troughs and ridges are) with skill out to ten days and this enables them to forecast the steering and (less effectively) intensity changes of systems that come off the African Coast, out to beyond ten days.

But if you have a reasonably busy life and a system is not already developed and in a well defined steering flow and is more than five days out, you are wasting your time to try to discern what might happen with a model generated system or a model generated region of good potential.

I'm old enough to remember when model forecasts were no good past day 3 and people slightly older than I remember the days of no models at all.


It really wasn't that long ago and no one even owned a computer.
People had to go to the library to find information about a subject.




Quoting 415. wunderkidcayman:


Flagged


You have been flagging a whole bunch of folks on this blog this year.
Quoting 415. wunderkidcayman:


Flagged


Thanks for the update!
Another example why the experts don't hype or overreact and instead wait to see how it unfolds.


what we're seeing though....is exactly what these experts said....wait until after the spring barrier....and now that it's ending...we're seeing conditions as predicted last winter and fall
Quoting 420. Sfloridacat5:



It really wasn't that long ago and no one even owned a computer.
People had to go to the library to find information about a subject.







I used to travel 8 miles to the nearest large library, when I wanted to research my pet subject. Occasionally, i'd travel 25 miles to the main Glasgow library. What a change when I got online in 2002. I now had the world's biggest library in my bedroom. Like the difference between a horse drawn coach, and air travel.
Quoting 403. ricderr:

once again this morning you can go to earth.nullschool.net and see how the shear is in the gulf.....plus a beautiful view of cristina in the EPAC....and then wonder a bit more westward and see that there's not even a hint of an eastward push of winds to drive the kelvin wave over


You do realize that is derived from model data that you.... em..... question quite a bit?


earth
a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers
updated every three hours
Thanks for the update!


am i the only one that when i see a comment like, flagged, i immediately am reminded of grade school playgrounds?
Quoting 426. ricderr:

Thanks for the update!


am i the only one that when i see a comment like, flagged, i immediately am reminded of grade school playgrounds?


Flagged, you're it! :)
Quoting 427. Evoluzione:




Hmm. Your 'first comment' and it's a computer prediction of rainfall in Florida in 11 days time. Come to think of it, I haven't seen LargoFl on here recently.
430. NCstu
Quoting 426. ricderr:

Thanks for the update!


am i the only one that when i see a comment like, flagged, i immediately am reminded of grade school playgrounds?
flagged
You do realize that is derived from model data that you.... em..... question quite a bit?


earth
a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers
updated every three hours


i sure do....and i have no problems with models.....i post many models 5 days out every day...i don't have a problem with long range models either....it;s just that...i find them laughable.....horrendously inaccurate.....in fact...i believe so far this season...they are 0 for 9
Major Hurricane may impact parts of Florida next week. People should begin looking at preparations.
Quoting 429. yonzabam:



Hmm. Your 'first comment' and it's a computer prediction of rainfall in Florida in 11 days time. Come to think of it, I haven't seen LargoFl on here recently.

Geez the first person that comes to mind is LargoFl
Seriously
Quoting 431. ricderr:

You do realize that is derived from model data that you.... em..... question quite a bit?


earth
a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers
updated every three hours


i sure do....and i have no problems with models.....i post many models 5 days out every day...i don't have a problem with long range models either....it;s just that...i find them laughable.....horrendously inaccurate.....in fact...i believe so far this season...they are 0 for 9


So that website, and "predictions" from it are just as laughable.
Quoting 432. Camille33:

Major Hurricane may impact parts of Florida next week. People should begin looking at preparations.


I know that's an attempt at humour, but you might find yourself banned for that kind of post.
Flagged, you're it! :)

flagged



that's it..i need to find a playground monitor...i'm feeling picked on....LOL
So that website, and "predictions" from it are just as laughable

do you really think so.......it's updated every three hours......i might suggest...you contact them....and ask them....at which hour point out....are they taking their data from....it might change your mind on this one
Quoting 432. Camille33:

Major Hurricane may impact parts of Florida next week. People should begin looking at preparations.

Say what now
Where you get that from is beyond me
Quoting 434. nrtiwlnvragn:



So that website, and "predictions" from it are just as laughable.

More like model observation (00hrs) from GFS
Plus uses data from NCEP and US NWS
Quoting 415. wunderkidcayman:


Flagged
Seriously ???
Getting some seriously good rains here in Northern Pinellas. Got hit last night around 10 and even heavier this morning.
here nrt...maybe this will help you

Real-time global wind map
Programmers! See this web page with the source etc.
Update January 2014: New overlays with temperature, pressure, cloud, and rain were added!


I just saw an amazing tweet by Pakistani string theorist Amer Iqbal (whom I know from Harvard) and you have to see it:
Real-time global wind map (earth.nullschool.net)
It's beautiful, fast, and hopefully accurate.




Using the usual gestures (dragging with the left mouse button, mouse wheel etc.), you may rotate the globe, zoom it in/out, and/or focus on the region you are interested in. The wind flows are visualized by animated flying green jets, sort of.

It may take a few seconds for the wind data to load and for the green animation to begin.




When I was posting this blog post for the first time, I still hadn't verified the credibility of the data and who is behind the impressive project.

Update: I have compared the graphical wind data with Weather Underground and the degree of agreement leads me to believe that the data are legit.

The information about the application and the source of its data may be accessed by clicking at the "earth" label in the lower left corner. The author (Cameron Beccario, software engineer focusing on .NET in Japan) seems to be a citizen scientist if we use this term and the data are from NCEP / US National Weather Service / NOAA.

The "earth" button also offers some options – changing the height (parameterized by pressure: e.g. the high-altitude 10 hPa pressure winds are more uniform, stronger, and red, purple, or even white if too strong), projection of the terrestrial sphere, changing the reference time (yesterday, forecast for tomorrow), UTC vs local time, visualizing your current location (permission may be needed; a "cross" closes the local info), and more. Left-clicking a place (with no dragging) gives you some local information about the place. If you click at "earth" again, the menus disappear.

The author kindly told me that he applies a simple bilinear interpolation to fill the gaps in the NCEP data – it surely looks good to me. He is unusually modest which is the reason why you probably haven't heard about the widget earlier.

Just by looking at the animations, one can learn some things. For example, the winds over oceans are generally much stronger than those over the land, indeed. The vortices simply love to appear at various spots. It would be interesting to see how much the wind field follows from the pressure field (a potential: the vortices imply non-potentiality), and other things
443. FOREX
Looking forward to the 12Z GFS to see if it will have the Yucatan low within 5 days. Also anxious to see latest EURO run.
Reading the comments just affirms that WU is not what is used to be or drew me here in the first place..every day its the same arguments with the same people..

hopefully something will change..for the better..

Member since 2006..
He's probably playing based off the GFS prediction.

Quoting 421. jrweatherman:


You have been flagging a whole bunch of folks on this blog this year.


More flags than a 4th of July parade ;-)
Looks like Largo is about to get a pounding (also Scott in the Orlando area - haven't seen him lately).
Quoting 443. FOREX:

Looking forward to the 12Z GFS to see if it will have the Yucatan low within 5 days. Also anxious to see latest EURO run.

I hear ya
I have to head out hopefully I'll be back in about an hour or 2
Quoting 445. Sfloridacat5:

He's probably playing based off the GFS prediction.



Most forecast is based on the GFS but they normally don't go farther than day 5- day 7
449. FOREX
TWC just said no tropical development in the Atlantic or Caribbean THROUGH next week.
Quoting 444. ncstorm:

Reading the comments just affirms that WU is not what is used to be or drew me here in the first place..every day its the same arguments with the same people..

hopefully something will change..for the better..

Member since 2006..
We just need a nice storm to track, to get people away from arguing with one another. Of course that will bring out the trolls, but I'd rather put up with the nonsense from trolls then bloggers who blog here on a normal basis arguing with each other. And by now people should know how other people behave and either 1) accept it or 2) ignore them. It's really that simple.
Early storm chaser


Quoting 416. georgevandenberghe:



Overdevelopment in the early season in the GOM and Caribbean is a well known GFS bias. No model handles genesis five days and further out at all well. Some models do SOMETIMES (and ensembles help tell us when) handle the low wavenumber features (where the big troughs and ridges are) with skill out to ten days and this enables them to forecast the steering and (less effectively) intensity changes of systems that come off the African Coast, out to beyond ten days.

But if you have a reasonably busy life and a system is not already developed and in a well defined steering flow and is more than five days out, you are wasting your time to try to discern what might happen with a model generated system or a model generated region of good potential.

I'm old enough to remember when model forecasts were no good past day 3 and people slightly older than I remember the days of no models at all.
I still remember what looked like cut and paste weather maps compared to nowadays being shown on the local news in the 70's.lol.These kids have it good.
Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 8:22 AM CDT on June 13, 2014
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor drainage areas in... Orleans Parish in southeast Louisiana... this includes the cities of...New Orleans...east New Orleans... St. Bernard Parish in southeast Louisiana... this includes the city of Chalmette... St. Tammany Parish in southeast Louisiana... this includes the cities of...Slidell...Eden Isle... Hancock County in southern Mississippi... this includes the city of Waveland...

* until 1015 am CDT

* at 818 am CDT...a line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will continue to produce rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour...and areas in the advisory area could receive up to 3 inches of rain in less than 2 hours. This will likely result in flooding of portions of U.S. Highway 90 from New Orleans to Pearlington...and other city streets and roads around Slidell...stennis space center...New Orleans...and Chalmette.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Quoting ncstorm:
Reading the comments just affirms that WU is not what is used to be or drew me here in the first place..every day its the same arguments with the same people..

hopefully something will change..for the better..

Member since 2006..


I don't know about that, the posts in 2006 weren't exactly a beacon of brilliance either most of the time during the active parts of hurricane season. I can honestly say since 2010 I've learned way more about TC genesis than I did from when I joined. You've just got to sort out the nonsense.

just one more st about wind.earthschool.net......they use it as a training topic at skywarn classes

Date: Wednesday, January, 8th.
Net Control Station: Tom, N1KTA
Training Topic: The Polar Vortex & Earth.nullschool.net Wind Map.
Topic Resources: From NBC News Polar Vortex, What is It... and from Climate Progress Everything you wanted to know about the Polar Vortex. Also discussed was the Wind Map from earth.nullschool.net. Some instructions: Left click & drag to rotate the globe; right click to find information at the mouse pointer; wheel, if you have one, to zoom in & out; click on "earth", lower left for more parameters; while in the parameters section click on "about" for a little more information about the site. Warning, can be mesmerizing!
Yesterday's Day 3 Outlook


Current Day 2 Outlook


When one lets a weather blog influence ones Karma, maybe seek out a new outlet foe ones frustration.
Seems like our coastal SC weather has been really strange for the past week or so.... Storms coming from west to east, instead of our usual rounds of coastal afternoon and evening storms. We had a line move west-east at 4:30 am the other morning and we never even heard it! I guess my brain isn't in tune with the pattern.
Quoting 444. ncstorm:

Reading the comments just affirms that WU is not what is used to be or drew me here in the first place..every day its the same arguments with the same people..

hopefully something will change..for the better..

Member since 2006..


This blog has always been crazy. Just different topics to fight about. GW aka CC has been the hottest topic over the past 2 years. Right now is people taking long range models as gospel.
Going to be active across Central FL. today.

When one lets a weather blog influence ones Karma, maybe seek out a new outlet foe ones frustration.



ahh grasshopper....may words of wisdom flow as a flooding river

Quoting 455. CybrTeddy:



I don't know about that, the posts in 2006 weren't exactly a beacon of brilliance either most of the time during the active parts of hurricane season. I can honestly say since 2010 I've learned way more about TC genesis than I did from when I joined. You've just got to sort out the nonsense.




I beg to differ..I rather deal with the blog of yester year than this pettiness I've seen of lately..I have been hanging in the cut rather than commenting..its like a reincarnation of Romper Room..

back in those years, the adults would complain about the kids who posted during hurricane season..it now has changed where the kids act more mature than the adults on here..

Later..
Meditation calms the nerves and strengthens the mind. I've heard acupuncture is really good too.
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 10:18 AM EDT on June 13, 2014
...A significant weather advisory has been issued for northern Pinellas and northwestern Hillsborough counties for a strong thunderstorm with strong wind gusts valid until 1115 am EDT...

At 1018 am EDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a strong thunderstorm located near Clearwater Beach...or 7 miles southwest of Dunedin...moving east at 25 mph will affect Honeymoon Island...Belleair Beach...Indian Rocks Beach and Clearwater Beach.

Gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph can be expected which can cause unsecured objects to blow around...snap tree limbs and cause power outages. Frequent to continuous lightning is expected. To be safe go indoors immediately. If caught outside...find a low spot...and stay away from tall objects. Torrential rains will reduce visibility to near zero and will cause ponding of water on roadways.
466. 7544
Quoting 448. wunderkidcayman:


I hear ya
I have to head out hopefully I'll be back in about an hour or 2

Most forecast is based on the GFS but they normally don't go farther than day 5- day 7


as we all know the gfs did show for many runs that a system was suppose to effecft fl this weekend thats not happening now the one for next week should start to form on the 18 maybe it will be the lucky run one this time we"ll see .but its fun to watch anyway .
O6Z GFS shows a TC making landfall in the upper SE U.S and perhaps flooding the DC area only 12-14 days out. So I guess I should start panicing??


For some bizzare and no doubt inexcusable reason the 384 hour forecast initialized Sunday morning May 26, failed to capture the
15x10 km area of heavy convection that flooded me out Tuesday June 10. A gross miss no??


Please note I am being sarcastic.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...CRISTINA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 109.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. CRISTINA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

For some bizzare and no doubt inexcusable reason the 384 hour forecast initialized Sunday morning May 26, failed to capture the
15x10 km area of heavy convection that flooded me out Tuesday June 10. A gross miss no??




NOOOOOOOOO...for the love of all things holy......not another mistake to ruin the past reputation of perfection long range models have achieved.....the long range model program must have been tampered with.....this is a ploy of left wing global warming alarmists...those horrific people will do anything to further their unfounded claims of global warming.....including damaging government property in the programming of these models
Just noting the current very large SAL plume in the Central Atlantic.  Some of that will be drawn into the Caribbean over next few days as well with the SE flow into the Caribbean pursuant to one of the current SAL modelling runs (University of Athens) that brings some of that Plume into the Western Caribbean in the coming week.  Very dry air in the Caribbean and high shear is not very conductive for TS formation at the moment:



Quoting 469. hurricanes2018:



good video
Quoting 442. ricderr:

here nrt...maybe this will help you

Real-time global wind map
Programmers! See this web page with the source etc.
Update January 2014: New overlays with temperature, pressure, cloud, and rain were added!


I just saw an amazing tweet by Pakistani string theorist Amer Iqbal (whom I know from Harvard) and you have to see it:
Real-time global wind map (earth.nullschool.net)
It's beautiful, fast, and hopefully accurate.




Using the usual gestures (dragging with the left mouse button, mouse wheel etc.), you may rotate the globe, zoom it in/out, and/or focus on the region you are interested in. The wind flows are visualized by animated flying green jets, sort of.

It may take a few seconds for the wind data to load and for the green animation to begin.




When I was posting this blog post for the first time, I still hadn't verified the credibility of the data and who is behind the impressive project.

Update: I have compared the graphical wind data with Weather Underground and the degree of agreement leads me to believe that the data are legit.

The information about the application and the source of its data may be accessed by clicking at the "earth" label in the lower left corner. The author (Cameron Beccario, software engineer focusing on .NET in Japan) seems to be a citizen scientist if we use this term and the data are from NCEP / US National Weather Service / NOAA.

The "earth" button also offers some options – changing the height (parameterized by pressure: e.g. the high-altitude 10 hPa pressure winds are more uniform, stronger, and red, purple, or even white if too strong), projection of the terrestrial sphere, changing the reference time (yesterday, forecast for tomorrow), UTC vs local time, visualizing your current location (permission may be needed; a "cross" closes the local info), and more. Left-clicking a place (with no dragging) gives you some local information about the place. If you click at "earth" again, the menus disappear.

The author kindly told me that he applies a simple bilinear interpolation to fill the gaps in the NCEP data – it surely looks good to me. He is unusually modest which is the reason why you probably haven't heard about the widget earlier.

Just by looking at the animations, one can learn some things. For example, the winds over oceans are generally much stronger than those over the land, indeed. The vortices simply love to appear at various spots. It would be interesting to see how much the wind field follows from the pressure field (a potential: the vortices imply non-potentiality), and other things



Weather data is produced by the Global Forecast System (GFS), operated by the US National Weather Service. Forecasts are produced four times daily and made available for download from NOMADS

Link

All earth is doing is displaying the GFS data in a different format.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 471. ricderr:

For some bizzare and no doubt inexcusable reason the 384 hour forecast initialized Sunday morning May 26, failed to capture the
15x10 km area of heavy convection that flooded me out Tuesday June 10. A gross miss no??




NOOOOOOOOO...for the love of all things holy......not another mistake to ruin the past reputation of perfection long range models have achieved.....the long range model program must have been tampered with.....this is a ploy of left wing global warming alarmists...those horrific people will do anything to further their unfounded claims of global warming.....including damaging government property in the programming of these models


It's even worse than you say. The conspiracy is global since the GEM and Euro missed it too. And so the multiple choice question of why

AGW alarmists.
AGW deniers
All O's fault
All Bush's fault.
Tea party
It's the BIlderberg conference participants.

Or maybe None of the above??


Again, this is sarcasm people!!
,,,Nuttin'



All earth is doing is displaying the GFS data in a different format.


exactly...but the data is not from long run prediction points not even 5 day prediction points...it's taking for what i can only say as a "nowcast" approach.......so i don't understand what is "laughable' about that
had a pretty strong storm here awhile ago..headed east folks.......watch the Lightning.............
Quoting ricderr:
All earth is doing is displaying the GFS data in a different format.


exactly...but the data is not from long run prediction points not even 5 day prediction points...it's taking for what i can only say as a "nowcast" approach.......so i don't understand what is "laughable' about that

You and nrt are in violent agreement.
It's raining so hard outside!.It looks kinda like snow.Gusty rain too.