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Hurricane Blanca Regains Category 4 Status

By: Bob Henson 4:23 PM GMT on June 06, 2015

Hurricane Blanca has accomplished the rare feat of reaching Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale for a second time after weakening to Category 1 level in between. Blanca continued plowing northwestward parallel to the Mexican coastline on Saturday morning after a dramatic burst of intensification overnight pushed its sustained winds to 130 mph, as of the 9:00 am MDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Earlier in the week, Blanca rapidly strengthened from a tropical storm on Tuesday morning to Category 4 strength on Wednesday, then suddenly weakened to a 110-mph storm in only 12 hours and fell to a Category 1 intensity on Friday afternoon (90 mph) before getting its second wind on Friday night. With peak winds of 140 mph on June 3, Blanca was the fourth strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. Blanca’s slow forward motion enabled its rapid midweek intensification, as the hurricane parked over a hot spot of deep, warm water, but the slow pace also enabled Blanca to churn up enough cold water to help cause its rapid weakening.


Figure 1. Hurricane Blanca as seen by the MODIS instrument on Saturday afternoon, June 6, 2015. At the time, Blanca was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Record-early tropical-storm impacts possible in Baja California
Blanca will continue to benefit from sea-surface temperatures that are more than 2°C above average along its path, with waters at the southern tip of Baja California already close to 26°C. As Blanca proceeds north of that point, its fate will be sealed by increasingly cool sea-surface temperatures. However, the storm could yet make history before running aground on the mountains of Baja California on Monday. The latest track forecast from the National Hurricane Center, issued at 9:00 am MDT Saturday, brings Blanca onto the west coast of Baja California near Puerto San Carlos as a tropical storm. Because of its nearly parallel track to the coast, Blanca could make landfall considerably north or south of that point. Regardless, Blanca appears likely to bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southernmost part of the peninsula from late Sunday into early Monday. A hurricane watch is in effect from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe, with a tropical storm warning from La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas. Tropical storm watches have been hoisted northward of La Paz to San Evaristo and from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro.

Should Blanca deliver winds of tropical-storm strength to Baja California, it would be the earliest such occurrence since the beginning of modern tropical cyclone records for the Northeast Pacific in 1949. In fact, during that period, only two tropical cyclones have made it within 100 miles of Baja California during the first half of the year (see Figure 2 below). One of these was a tropical depression in 1993 that slid north along the eastern coast of the peninsula, dissipating just east of La Paz. The other was a hurricane that cut just south of the peninsula at minimal Category 1 strength on June 14, 1958. This year looks set to carve many more marks in the history of Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones, given the unusually warm SSTs that prevail as well as the continued strengthening of El Niño, which favors hurricane development in this basin.


Figure 2. Tropical cyclones observed between January and June since modern records began in the Northeast Pacific (1949). Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.

A splash of rain at a dry time of the year for Arizona
Blanca’s remnants are expected to bring potentially heavy rain to parts of northwest Mexico early next week, with moisture and rains moving into Arizona, Utah, and neighboring states by midweek (see Figure 4 below). However, the active Northeast Pacific is already affecting rainfall over the southwestern United States. Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Andres has combined with an unseasonably strong upper low over southern California to spark showers and thunderstorms well ahead of the usual monsoon rains of summer. Winds estimated at 60 mph struck near Gilbert, AZ, on Thursday, and hail up to tennis ball size was reported in Coconino County, Arizona, on Friday. Phoenix set a daily rainfall record on Friday with 0.16”, the city’s first measurable rain on that date since records began in 1896. That leaves June 11 as the only calendar date of the year in which Phoenix has never reported measurable rain (although a trace fell on that date in 1991).

Links
Live streaming camera on the very southern tip of Baja California.
Another camera is just east of this one, on the Bay (Bahia) of San Lucas at Sunset Da Monalisa.

Jeff Masters will have an update on Blanca by Monday.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Category 2 Hurricane Blanca (right) and the remnants of Tropical Storm Andres (left) as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi spacecraft on June 5, 2015. Image credit: NASA Worldview.


Figure 4. Predicted total precipitation from the 06Z Saturday run of the GFDL model. Areas of 4 - 8" (dark green colors) were forecast along the Baja Peninsula, over Mainland Mexico south of the Arizona border, and in Central Arizona. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nola Roux just delivered her first German Shepherd Puppy of this litter.


A very impressive storm. hopefully it doesn't cause too much damage wherever it makes landfall and brings whatever rain it can to areas in drought.

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson!

Whoops, Didn't even read who wrote the blog post
blanca is quite something
Thanks Doc.

Jeff Masters will have an update on Blanca by Monday.

Bob Henson
Quoting 4. washingtonian115:

Thanks Doc.


dr m did not do the blog

Bob Henson did

so if your going too thank some one thanks Bob Henson all ways read the ending part be for saying thanks too some one
how march longer in tell recon gets too the storm they most be getting vary close too all most there by now


the NHC has been keeping this storm really on the low side over night really think that this was a cat 5 over night

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 17:40:54 N Lon : 109:34:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 913.6mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.0 7.0


that was showing a raw T # of 7.5 not long a go with 152Kt winds

so am looking for word too the recon this AM has the NHC has been keeping the winds really low

Tropical Atlantic Update: It Only Takes One: The Mantra of Inactive Hurricane Seasons

01 June 2015

Another post today to usher in the beginning of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season! This one is provided by my good friend and guest blogger, Michael Laca. Michael is a Miami native, and has experienced many hurricanes, both in Miami and on his numerous storm chases over the years. He is very knowledgeable on hurricanes and particularly hurricane history, and is the owner of the popular TROPMET.COM website that has been around for over 20 years.

His post today address the common phrase It only takes one, referring to the destructive potential of a single landfalling hurricane, regardless of an "active" or "inactive" season.
================================================= =====================

Today marks the beginning of the 2015 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin. With a significant 'El Nino' event currently developing, seasonal forecasts that have recently been released from both CSU and NOAA are suggesting that below-normal tropical cyclone activity can be expected this year. Combined with a nearly decade-long absence of any major hurricane landfalls in the United States, the perceived threat among many coastal residents has been waning.

Of course, as is often heard, 'It only takes one!' to make a season catastrophic, but hearing this has always made me wonder how many times that scenario has actually occurred. Looking back at all "inactive" Atlantic seasons (based on a total of eight, or less, "named" storms within a given season) from 1900-present, how many major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds >= 100kt/115mph) have impacted the U.S.?

As it turns out, it's probably more than you might have imagined. During this period, there were 16 seasons that met my "inactivity" criteria, which also produced a major hurricane impact(s) in the United States. In the map below, the tracks for the 17 major hurricanes (which resulted in a total of 21 separate major U.S. impacts) can be seen, along with their respective peak intensities (in knots), and associated intensity at the time of major impact/landfall. Across these specific 16 seasons, the average number of "named" storms per year was 5.8, well below the statistical average of 9.6. (Note: The statistical average is based on the period 1950-2000, excluding many of the "inactive" seasons on my list, which predate the modern reconnaissance and satellite eras. The statistical average is presented only as a general

Some of the most notorious hurricane impacts, and greatest disasters, that this country has experienced have occurred within these "inactive" seasons, including the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, the Texas and Louisiana Hurricanes of 1915, the Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928, the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricanes Audrey, Donna, Betsy, Beulah, Alicia and, of course, Hurricane Andrew. The combined number of fatalities from these specific storms is a staggering 17,100! Also, looking at the distribution of the U.S. locations impacted by these particular storms, 1 impact occurred in North Carolina, 4 occurred in Louisiana, 6 occurred in Texas, and a whopping 11 major hurricane impacts have occurred in Florida, during "inactive" seasons... 9 of those over the southern portion of the peninsula... and 5 within a 60 mile stretch south of Miami to the middle Florida Keys!

It's important to re-state that this list is strictly limited to impacts from tropical cyclones that were of 'major' hurricane intensity (Category Three, or higher, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). There have been many other impacts in the United States, during "inactive" seasons, from hurricanes (and other storms), below Category Three intensity... some of which have produced devastating results (such as Hurricane Agnes in June, 1972)!

So, regardless of how many tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic this year, please remember to always be prepared because it truly does ONLY TAKE ONE ... and there have actually been many "ONES" to prove it!

-- Michael Laca

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Posted by Brian McNoldy at 8:45 PM
Disturbance SW of Jamaica which is being help by divergence aloft is still stuck in 30 knots of shear. Shear is forecast to drop, steering currents are taking this where? Looks to me like it's just going to go nowhere fast. Next week's possible storm, is it still forecast to possibly form by strong convection and moisture pouring from across Central America?
JMO I think the Northeast Pacific will be very busy this season...Well back to studying social science...
Busy as in shopping a lot on QVC?
Quoting 11. yoboi:

JMO I think the Northeast Pacific will be very busy this season...Well back to studying social science...


Interested in the Northwest Atlantic too. SST's are off the charts in New England. God forbid an Irene to happen again, would not want to see a redo of one like that tapping into those SST's off of New England.
Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

Disturbance SW of Jamaica which is being help by divergence aloft is still stuck in 30 knots of shear. Shear is forecast to drop, steering currents are taking this where? Looks to me like it's just going to go nowhere fast. Next week's possible storm, is it still forecast to possibly form by strong convection and moisture pouring from across Central America?


huh
Quoting 14. wunderkidcayman:



huh


LOL, Versed in some topics, tropical development not being at the top of that list. Just wondering where the possible storm next week in the Gulf is going to come from.
Quoting 13. DeepSeaRising:



Interested in the Northeast Atlantic too. SST's are off the charts in the NE. God forbid an Irene to happen again, would not want to see a redo of one like that tapping into those SST's off of New England.


Yes I have noticed that..I think one hotspot will be from Se La and the west coast of Fla..Of course this is just my opinion.. I hope the season is not active with any land falling hurricanes..
17. Ed22
Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

Disturbance SW of Jamaica which is being help by divergence aloft is still stuck in 30 knots of shear. Shear is forecast to drop, steering currents are taking this where? Looks to me like it's just going to go nowhere fast. Next week's possible storm, is it still forecast to possibly form by strong convection and moisture pouring from across Central America?
This Tropical Disturbance I mentioned yesterday still have the potential to form early this week, furthermore I'm glad that someone mentioned it; let see what happen with it...
Recon is about to make its first pass into Blanca.
Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

Disturbance SW of Jamaica which is being help by divergence aloft is still stuck in 30 knots of shear. Shear is forecast to drop, steering currents are taking this where? Looks to me like it's just going to go nowhere fast. Next week's possible storm, is it still forecast to possibly form by strong convection and moisture pouring from across Central America?


As Kman mentioned last blog, we had a big storm here last night with tropical storm force winds for about an hour, then some substantial flooding through the evening. Possibly more on the way this afternoon or early evening, as the blob moves into our area again.

Quoting 15. DeepSeaRising:



LOL, Versed in some topics, tropical development not being at the top of that list. Just wondering where the possible storm next week in the Gulf is going to come from.


This is from Lake Charles NWS

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN FROM A CONTINUING FETCH
IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WEAKENS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO CLIMO LEVELS.

AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PRODUCING HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SWEENEY
Quoting 6. Tazmanian:



dr m did not do the blog

Bob Henson did

so if your going too thank some one thanks Bob Henson all ways read the ending part be for saying thanks too some one
And a big "thank you" to you!
Quoting 20. yoboi:



This is from Lake Charles NWS

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN FROM A CONTINUING FETCH
IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WEAKENS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO CLIMO LEVELS.

AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PRODUCING HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SWEENEY


Thanks, sounds like a very interesting situation in the Central to Western Gulf next week. Weakening high pressure should allow for shear to drop off by mid to late week.
Hmm....my cousins up in Indiana might have some fun. I go up there in July for a wedding celebration. Woot. Road trip + family reunion.

Quoting 22. DeepSeaRising:


Thanks, sounds like a very interesting situation in the Central to Western Gulf next week. Weakening high pressure should allow for shear to drop off by mid to late week.
Being an old geezer, I like to look at surface charts as well as satellite pictures. The most recent surface chart shows a high pressure ridge in the Gulf while there's a large and fairly stable high further out in the Atlantic. The trough that's causing all the rain in the Caymans, Cuba, and the Bahamas is moving ever so slowly east, pushed along by the high in the Gulf and being weakened slightly by the dry air being driven into the area from the Gulf. The trough is trapped between the two high pressure systems so it's not going to move very fast over the next few days.

Small, weak lows keep forming along the trough axis. The low from yesterday has dissipated but it looks like another low is forming or has formed at about 24N 85W. This will be another weak low that will also dissipate. Even with all the clouds and convection there's just no mechanism I can see that's going to cause any low to deepen. Wind shear over the Caribbean has dropped from 40 knots to 30 knots but that's still too high for a weak low to develop. The westerlies are still blowing strongly in the upper atmosphere from the Carribean to well out into the Atlantic. The trough will weaken as it moves east and should be out of the area by Tuesday. The one area I see that does have some turning is in the Gulf of Honduras but, even there, a low that develops is not likely to be able to gain any latitude, so it will head off toward Columbia rather than north in the Caribbean. At least out to 96 hours, conditions aren't good for any kind of tropical cyclone to form in the Carribean. I have no clue about this supposed storm that might form somewhere in the western Gulf since the models are all over the place with that one.

Quoting 25. sar2401:

Being an old geezer, I like to look at surface charts as well as satellite pictures.



This High doin' a donut in the GOM.. supposed to move SW into Mexico within a few days, good riddance.
Looks like that area SE/ E of Florida Bahamas is trying to get its act together because you can clearly see a spin trying to happen with the mid and high clouds...

Eric
nice update thanks
02e pulled it off surprised really
ok back to the first coffee
of the day
02E/MH/B/C4

Quoting 16. yoboi:



Yes I have noticed that..I think one hotspot will be from Se La and the west coast of Fla..Of course this is just my opinion.. I hope the season is not active with any land falling hurricanes..


I think you will get your wish, yoboi.

We did get close to an inch of beneficial rains here in Winter Park yesterday. I am hoping this trough/low setup moves out so our normal summer pattern can proceed.
Thanks Dr. Great stat on the re-intensification for Blanca given those very warm ssts and favorable shear. Here is what the E-Pac looks like in the wake of Blanca; plenty of room, moisture, and activity for another E-Pac storm in the very near future-:






Quoting 27. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Looks like that area SE/ E of Florida Bahamas is trying to get its act together because you can clearly see a spin trying to happen with the mid and high clouds...

Eric
Nah, the Doc would have mentioned it and the NHC probably if it was any concern.
Quoting 30. HurrMichaelOrl:



I think you will get your wish, yoboi.

We did get close to an inch of beneficial rains here in Winter Park yesterday. I am hoping this trough/low setup moves out so our normal summer pattern can proceed.


At my place downtown, I recorded 1.68 inches when it was all done. It was a pretty intense first 20 minutes.
NHC found support for just 105 knots now.

Blanca "weakened" to winds of 120 mph with pressure of 955 mbar.

-.-

The convection looks increasing again.







UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 17:59:26 N Lon : 109:40:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 914.1mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.6 degrees
Amazing Blanca! Thanks for the update. - And good afternoon all ...

Below the current official map with weather alerts in Germany. Purple = extremely dangerous weather. Guess where the region of the G7 summit is (which starts tomorrow)? Sure, in one of those purple areas deep south at the slopes of the Alps, near the border to Austria:


Saved pic.
Source for updates.

For some hours already protesters consider to evacuate their nearby camp due to flooding ...
And I hope POTUS (who is already in his plane over the Atlantic) got rubber boots in his luggage for his scheduled walk to an adjacent neighbourhood, lol.

If the storms and rains won't lessen, it will be difficult for the leaders to reach their posh Elmau Castle Hotel at all because it would be too dangerous to use helicopters. And on land there is in the last part only one road to get to the hotel - an idea which isn't very reassuring in respect of safety ... BTW:

Merkel Urges G-7 Leaders to Commit to Climate Goals at Summit
Bloomberg, by Patrick Donahue, June 6, 2015 %u2014 4:14 PM CEST


Current IR loop (source). Not only in the Alps but in other parts of southern Germany as well, there've been some severe and stationary (retrograding) thunderstorms this afternoon which dumped lots of rain and large hail onto some places. Weather radar.
BBL
I doubt Blanca ever regained 115kts. It appears to be weakening now with warming convection, likely due to decreasing SSTs and maybe shear, but even earlier today it was probably still only 105kts, maybe 110kts max. Recon data so far only justifies 95kts max, although they aren't done. Big eye storms like this often have lower winds than satellite estimates indicate.

And here is the big picture for Caribbean and Gulf. Not looking like anything brewing on that end and shear is very high across the entire Caribbean, Gulf, and Atlantic Basin..................The E-Pac remains the story for now:


Quoting 36. MAweatherboy1:

I doubt Blanca ever regained 115kts. It appears to be weakening now with warming convection, likely due to decreasing SSTs and maybe shear, but even earlier today it was probably still only 105kts, maybe 110kts max. Recon data so far only justifies 95kts max, although they aren't done. Big eye storms like this often have lower winds than satellite estimates indicate.




Isla Socorro, a bit west of Blanca's path getting tropical storm force winds right now, winds 47 mph gusting to 52.
Quoting 27. EricfromGreenvilleSC:
Looks like that area SE/ E of Florida Bahamas is trying to get its act together because you can clearly see a spin trying to happen with the mid and high clouds...

Eric
I think the spin you're seeing is from the large circulation being promoted by southerly flow from the large anticyclone to the east. As it flows around the base of the ridge it picks up moisture from a tropical wave to the east and then starts south toward the trough that covers the area from the western tip of Cuba down toward Honduras. The flow is showing mostly high clouds with some convection out in the Atlantic and near the Bahamas. Because that mass of clouds is so large, it looks like it should do something but there is just no mechanism to promote a surface low that has a chance to deepen. This is the type of pattern I used to see in the late 80's when I was sailing down there. I spent a lot of time dodging thunderstorms and trying to find a good place to tie up for the night. It seems to me that this is another nail in the coffin of our active era, but that's just a guess on my part.
What happens or does not happen in Western Gulf late next week will depend on what happens to future system behind Blanca in the Pacific. GFS xfers the energy to the Gulf by day 7. The Euro holds it back developing a tropical storm on the Pacific side...
GFS day 5


GFS day 7


EURO day 5


EURO day 8
Don't big eyed hurricanes have larger wind fields, might make it a bit more windy at Cabo San Lucas ?

Quoting 33. Naga5000:



At my place downtown, I recorded 1.68 inches when it was all done. It was a pretty intense first 20 minutes.


Wow any records that were broke??
Quoting 38. HurrMichaelOrl:


Isla Socorro, a bit west of Blanca's path getting tropical storm force winds right now, winds 47 mph gusting to 52.
Isla Soccoro is at 18.47N 110.58W while Blanca is about about 18.0N 109.8W so Blanca is pretty close to the islands. I went scuba diving there once. There are no facilities on the islands other than a small navy base, which civilians aren't allowed to use. I had to take a dive boat for 18 hours to get there. The main reason for going is it's one of the few places you have a chance to see all the big pelagic animals at fairly shallow depths. I went in January when it's supposedly calm. The wind blew at 30 mph every afternoon and into the night for my three days there. I'm not usually subject to sea sickness but I was that trip. The diving was great, but trying to keep down the barf while you're diving just wasn't that much fun. A tropical cyclone will hit Isla Soccoro full force, so the winds there should give a pretty good idea of how things will be for the rest of Baja as Blanca moves north.
Quoting 41. MahFL:
Don't big eyed hurricanes have larger wind fields, might make it a bit more windy at Cabo San Lucas ?

They can, especially if the southern tip of Baja ends up on the strong (east) side of the storm. A lot depends on the exact path and how much Blanca has weakened. After seeing what it did last night I'm not too confident in the weakening part. :-)
Quoting 42. yoboi:



Wow any records that were broke??


I don't believe so, Orlando Intl Airport is the official reporting station, about 9-10 miles southeast from me they only reported .41, I'm about 1 mile from the dead center of downtown. The executive airport is nearby me, they recorded 1.41, but still unofficial.
Quoting 40. TXCWC:
What happens or does not happen in Western Gulf late next week will depend on what happens to future system behind Blanca in the Pacific. GFS xfers the energy to the Gulf by day 7. The Euro holds it back developing a tropical storm on the Pacific side
The CMC is even more crazed than usual with this thing, having a low that just jumps back and forth across Mexico from hour 140 onward. The GFS and ECMWF were in decent agreement 10 days out two days ago and have now completely diverged from each other. It's kind of difficult to take the idea of a Gulf storm seriously at this point given the model runs so far.
Quoting 11. yoboi:

JMO I think the Northeast Pacific will be very busy this season...Well back to studying social science...


Hi Yoboi,
Have your anti-AGW comments been part of a college social science project? Just curious...
Quoting 35. barbamz:
Amazing Blanca! Thanks for the update. - And good afternoon all ...

Below the current official map with weather alerts in Germany. Purple = extremely dangerous weather. Guess where the region of the G7 summit is (which starts tomorrow)? Sure, in one of those purple areas deep south at the slopes of the Alps, near the border to Austria:


Saved pic. Source for updates.

For some hours already protesters consider to evacuate their nearby camp due to flooding ...
And I hope POTUS (who is already in his plane over the Atlantic) got rubber boots in his luggage for his scheduled walk to an adjacent neighbourhood, lol.

If the storms and rains won't lessen, it will be difficult for the leaders to reach their posh Elmau Castle Hotel at all because it would be too dangerous to use helicopters. And on land there is in the last part only one road to get to the hotel - an idea which isn't very reassuring in respect of safety ... BTW:

Merkel Urges G-7 Leaders to Commit to Climate Goals at Summit
Bloomberg, by Patrick Donahue, June 6, 2015 %u2014 4:14 PM CEST


Current IR loop. Not only in the Alps but in other parts of southern Germany as well, there've been some severe and stationary (retrograding) thunderstorms this afternoon which dumped lots of rain and large hail onto some places. Weather radar.
BBL
Holy cow! I just checked the prices for the Schloss Elmau. The "low season" rate (September 15 through October) in the older wing start at 1150 Euros per night. That room is probably a converted broom closet. If you want the more modern Wetterstein wing, it's 1396 Euros per night. They will throw in a visit to the spa for a mere 150 Euros if you book a junior suite at 1596 Euros. The executive suites start 1996 Euros. They probably have lunch specials though. I couldn't find any rates for summer since they are all booked up. I'm sure there are similar bargains available then. I imagine the whole place is run by solar and wind power since our world leaders will be discussing ways to decrease carbon emissions while there. I know one thing - if I'm ever offered the chance to be a world leader, I'm taking it. :-)

Edit: I forgot, here is their webcam in case you want to catch a glimpse of any of the world leaders headed for the spa...
Quoting 44. sar2401:

They can, especially if the southern tip of Baja ends up on the strong (east) side of the storm. A lot depends on the exact path and how much Blanca has weakened. After seeing what it did last night I'm not too confident in the weakening part. :-)


What island is that on the NW quadrant of Blanca? Is there any population on that island?
Blanca seems like it's just about to pass by Isla Socorro.

Quoting 49. EricfromGreenvilleSC:



What island is that on the NW quadrant of Blanca? Is there any population on that island?


45, apparently.
Quoting 49. EricfromGreenvilleSC:


What island is that on the NW quadrant of Blanca? Is there any population on that island?
There are four islands that are part of the same archipelago, of which I don't remember the name. The only island even close to Socorro is San Benidicto to the north. The only reason I remember that one is we almost went up on the rocks while the skipper was trying to show us seals. I don't know the names of the other two. There's no population on any of the other islands. There were maybe 100 people at the navy base on Soccoro. Soccoro is volcanic, covered in scrub, and not very attractive. The skipper told me the Mexican Navy established a base there to keep an eye out for illegal fishing after Mexico established a 200 nm economic zone. Soccoro was picked because it was the only island with a source of fresh water. I was there in 1987 so things might have changed but I kind of doubt it. This is the end of the world as far as Mexico is concerned. The only vessel I saw was one broken down ex-USN subchaser. Maybe they have a new one now. :-)


Looks like a decent arctic low pressure system underway. All that wind could break up sea ice and result in a very small arctic sea ice area this summer much like the 2012 season. Sad face.......
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
Low AAM (-GWO); neutral SOI; very interesting El Nino at play. Yet upper-levels are in a strong Nino state (AEI).
Based on satellite estimates, Blanca likely peaked in intensity between 12-13z as a low-end Category 4 hurricane before beginning to track into cooler waters. Further deceleration is likely over the coming days, although Blanca is still likely to be a tropical storm as it makes landfall on Baja California Sur.



One thing is for sure--Blanca is one nice-looking hurricane!

Quoting 47. annabatic:



Hi Yoboi,
Have your anti-AGW comments been part of a college social science project? Just curious...


No but after next semester I will be an expert with social science...

edit: Dr. Yoboi in 6 months..
Quoting 45. Naga5000:



I don't believe so, Orlando Intl Airport is the official reporting station, about 9-10 miles southeast from me they only reported .41, I'm about 1 mile from the dead center of downtown. The executive airport is nearby me, they recorded 1.41, but still unofficial.


Well hope you only get what is needed....Trust me seen excess this year so far...
Quoting 56. yoboi:



No but after next semester I will be an expert with social science...

edit: Dr. Yoboi in 6 months..


Congrats early. An accomplishment to be proud of.

Shear decreasing across w, sw and nw Caribbean.
More proof plants don't watch Fox News.

Drought hastens decline of the Joshua tree, California's desert symbol

As Barrows explained, it's a tough time to be a Joshua tree. Climate change is taking an enormous toll, and the current drought has hastened the decline of a species that is regarded as the symbol of California deserts.

"For Joshua trees, hotter, drier conditions are a problem — but a bigger problem is that what little rainfall occurs evaporates faster," Barrows said. "So, seedlings shrivel up and die before they can put down strong roots."


Link
Quoting 58. SunnyDaysFla:



Congrats early. An accomplishment to be proud of.


Probably will just stick with farming....But I am thinking about submitting some papers that I have been working on..Or maybe writing a book...
Quoting 56. yoboi:



No but after next semester I will be an expert with social science...

edit: Dr. Yoboi in 6 months..


This should be good.
Quoting 56. yoboi:



No but after next semester I will be an expert with social science...

edit: Dr. Yoboi in 6 months..
I'm sure we're all looking forward to reading your dissertation. Topic?
Quoting 63. FLwolverine:

I'm sure we're all looking forward to reading your dissertation. Topic?


I'll tell him mine if he tells me his. ;)
Quoting 59. stormpetrol:


Shear decreasing across w, sw and nw Caribbean.


yep
Quoting 63. FLwolverine:

I'm sure we're all looking forward to reading your dissertation. Topic?


The topic... cognitive distortion of catastrophizing..
Quoting 64. Naga5000:



I'll tell him mine if he tells me his. ;)


Ooo! Secrets!

Ask me in 8 years? Hopefully? Assuming 3 years left of undergrad + acceptance into grad + a random guess at the end.
Quoting 66. yoboi:



The topic... cognitive distortion of catastrophizing..


I'm going to mull that over for a while.
Quoting 59. stormpetrol:


Shear decreasing across w, sw and nw Caribbean.
Quoting 65. wunderkidcayman:



yep


and
I would expect more shear to decrease as the upper trof pulls out

I think this would happen within the next 24-48hrs or so
Quoting 55. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Based on satellite estimates, Blanca likely peaked in intensity between 12-13z as a low-end Category 4 hurricane before beginning to track into cooler waters. Further deceleration is likely over the coming days, although Blanca is still likely to be a tropical storm as it makes landfall on Baja California Sur.



One thing is for sure--Blanca is one nice-looking hurricane!




I don't think that the secondary peak has reached only 135 mph. Can you see those yellow ring? If it be wrap the entire eye (with a clear eye), is at least 160 mph. This is a classic pattern of category 5 tropical cyclones; In "avn" this ring needs to be in grey color. I'd put this secondary peak around 145 mph and the first peak of the intensity at 145 also, maybe 150 mph, because she was healthy in June 3rd (more than now). If she hadn't stayed for many hours in the same place i have absolutely certain that Blanca could reached more than 160 mph, maybe even 175 mph. She was perfect conditions to be a monster and stronger than other category 5 in June, Celia in 2010 and the actual record, Ava 1973. In the second chance that Blanca had, if she had had that aspect in the morning but in the region that she did eyewall replacement cycle and weaker wind shear, she could reach category 5 for the second time.

We can conclude that Blanca could reach category 5 if she hadn't stationary for many hours in June 3rd.

(My opinion)

Hey wunderkid

Today's weather is exactly why you need to make your own forecast here.....

I suspect tomorrow will be more like today also even though they us at 60% today and 70% tomorrow
Quoting 62. Naga5000:



This should be good.


This immediately comes to mind.
The main focus today has been on Blanca, but a potentially significant severe weather threat is evolving across extreme southeastern South Dakota down into northeastern Nebraska, where conditions will be favorable for several supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and one or two significant tornadoes.
Quoting 66. yoboi:



The topic... cognitive distortion of catastrophizing..
Outstanding. And when can we expect to see it?
Quoting 70. pablosyn:



I don't think that the secondary peak has reached only 135 mph. Can you see those yellow ring? If it be wrap the entire eye (with a clear eye), is at least 160 mph. This is a classic pattern of category 5 tropical cyclones; In "avn" this ring needs to be in grey color. I'd put this secondary peak around 145 mph and the first peak of the intensity at 145 also, maybe 150 mph, because she was healthy in June 3rd (more than now). If she hadn't stayed for many hours in the same place i have absolutely certain that Blanca could reached more than 160 mph, maybe even 175 mph. She was perfect conditions to be a monster and stronger than other category 5 in June, Celia in 2010 and the actual record, Ava 1973. In the second chance that Blanca had, if she had had that aspect in the morning but in the region that she did eyewall replacement cycle and weaker wind shear, she could reach category 5 for the second time.

We can conclude that Blanca could reach category 5 if she hadn't stationary for many hours in June 3rd.

(My opinion)



The -80C ring statement is a general rule for the West Pacific only. Cyclones outside the West Pacific hardly ever have a ring of -80C convection because of differences in tropopause height. The only storm I can think of off the top of my head that had such deep convection was Wilma. And the presence of a -80C ring doesn't automatically guarantee Cat 5 either. Blanca's large eye/size likely means that, despite its presentation, winds were not as strong as satellite would lead one to believe. I can buy that Blanca weakened from 115kt at 12z to 105kt at 21z; I cannot buy that it weakened from 140kt to 105kt in the same time period.
Quoting 53. wartsttocs:



Looks like a decent arctic low pressure system underway. All that wind could break up sea ice and result in a very small arctic sea ice area this summer much like the 2012 season. Sad face.......


Hey buddy, can I please have the link to that map, I've seen a couple with sea level pressure and SST's. But I lost the website. Thanks :)
Quoting 71. 19N81W:

Hey wunderkid

Today's weather is exactly why you need to make your own forecast here.....

I suspect tomorrow will be more like today also even though they us at 60% today and 70% tomorrow

what why?

I think tonight will become rainy
and I think tomorrow will be more so with more wind and seas

Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The main focus today has been on Blanca, but a potentially significant severe weather threat is evolving across extreme southeastern South Dakota down into northeastern Nebraska, where conditions will be favorable for several supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and one or two significant tornadoes.


Significant =/= one. I know it's been a slow year Codfish, but come on. I get a severe weather threat, yes, but not the significant part.
Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The main focus today has been on Blanca, but a potentially significant severe weather threat is evolving across extreme southeastern South Dakota down into northeastern Nebraska, where conditions will be favorable for several supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and one or two significant tornadoes.


Not overly impressed with the shear, tbh. Looking a little low for a substantial tornado threat, but the hail and damaging wind threat is definitely still there.
I may do a book on Hip waders.


Deep derp.
81. vis0
Quoting 6. Tazmanian:



dr m did not do the blog

Bob Henson did

so if your going too thank some one thanks Bob Henson all ways read the ending part be for saying thanks too some one
thanks, some one
Quoting 56. yoboi:


No but after next semester I will be an expert with social science...

edit: Dr. Yoboi in 6 months..
You're not getting a degree from the Close Cover Before Striking University are you? I'm almost got sucked into that deal once. :-)
Quoting 81. vis0:
thanks, some one
Make sure you use your spell checker also...
Quoting 79. CybrTeddy:



Not overly impressed with the shear, tbh. Looking a little low for a substantial tornado threat, but the hail and damaging wind threat is definitely still there.

There are concerns for sure, but SPC has a 10% hatched region out with a 70/40% tornado watch. We'll see what happens.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 523 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 312 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 511 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     DENVER CO - KBOU 404 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
TORNADO WARNING     DENVER CO - KBOU 359 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015
87. vis0
cookie for LongIslandBeaches?
image host
Quoting 66. yoboi:



The topic... cognitive distortion of catastrophizing..


Quoting 62. Naga5000:



This should be good.


You're going to have a hard sell with the psychologists, I present the American Psychological Associations Statement on Climate Change

I'll provide some highlights:

Whereas there is near consensus among climate scientists that global climate change is occurring faster than anticipated, starting in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and there will be greater global climate change if greenhouse gases are not reduced (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Gilman, Randall, & Schwartz, 2007; Sokolov, et al., in press);

Whereas climate scientists now agree that recent dramatic climate change is associated with human behavior that has resulted in increasing emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2; CH4; N2O)(IPCC, 2007; National Research Council, 2010; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2009;), and psychologists can provide a behavioral analyses of such contributions (APA Task report on Global Climate Change);

Whereas there is a need for inter- and cross-disciplinary research on Global Climate Change that includes the social and behavioral sciences, and psychologists have been and are collaborators and participants in such research (APA Task report on Global Climate Change, Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, 2009; Fischhoff, B., & Furby, L., 1983; National Research Council, 2010);

Whereas the impacts of climate change are increasing globally and include the destruction of habitats and subsequent threats to endangered species, acidity of water, disasters (e.g. forest fires), extreme weather (e.g., hurricanes, heat waves), decreasing availability of water, and spreading of diseases, harming plants, wildlife, human physical heath, settlements, and psychological well-being, and are a threat to social, economic, and environmental sustainability (IPCC, 2007; APA task force report on Psychology and Climate Change, 2009);

Therefore it is resolved that APA reaffirms its recognition of the importance of psychological aspects of human environment relations;

Therefore it is resolved that APA supports psychologists’ involvement in scientific research on global climate change and on the role of human behavior as a significant contributor to these changes;

Therefore it is resolved that APA recognizes the current and anticipated psycho-social impacts of climate change, especially for already underprivileged and marginalized groups, in addition to the bio- and geo-physical impact and the ethical imperative of addressing climate change via adaptation and mitigation;

Therefore it is resolved that APA recognizes the role of psycho-social processes in perceptions and beliefs about global climate change that can potentially hinder public understanding of global climate change.

Therefore it is resolved that APA supports psychologists’ involvement in research, education, and community interventions in improving public understanding of global climate change impacts and psychological contributions to mitigation and adaptation efforts that address both environmental and human, including psychological, impacts of Global Climate Change.
Beautiful day here on Gantt lake not too much sun or too much clouds. Nice breeze and no rain. Relaxing ahhh...
Quoting 76. 882MB:



Hey buddy, can I please have the link to that map, I've seen a couple with sea level pressure and SST's. But I lost the website. Thanks :)


Link

Here is the website. Under "today's maps" is where I like to hang out.
I don't mean to be disrespectful or to fail to underscore the importance of having a proper understanding of climate change, but can we please take a break just for one blog? It makes sense to have this discussion when climate change is the subject of the blog topic, but last blog was way too heated and the topic is about Blanca, a Category 3 major hurricane currently threatening Baja California and Sorroco Island.
I know it only takes one Einstein to overturn the established paradigm but do we have the next


or just another
?

93. vis0

Quoting 84. sar2401:

Make sure you use your spell checker also...
Oh that's for checking ones spelling, i thought it was a type of connect4 game. No wonder i kept winning.
Off topic, apologies

How many pups so far Pat?
How's Nola doing?
Quoting 75. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Cyclones outside the West Pacific hardly ever have a ring of -80C convection because of differences in tropopause height. The only storm I can think of off the top of my head that had such deep convection was Wilma. In addition, Blanca's large eye/size likely means that, despite its presentation, winds were not as strong as satellite would lead one to believe. I can buy that Blanca weakened from 115kt at 12z to 105kt at 21z; I cannot buy that it weakened from 140kt to 105kt in the same time period.


Super Typhoon Nida 2009 (185 mph - 180 mph post analysis).


Hurricane Rick 2009 (180 mph):


Rick:

Super Typhoon Usagi 2013 (160 mph - 155 mph post analysis):


Cyclone Phailin 2013 (160 mph):


Super Typhoon Lekima 2013 (160 mph at least):


Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda 2013 (with 175 mph)

Haiyan with 195 mph



Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice 2015 (160 mph at least):


Cyclone Gillian 2014 (160 mph)


Super Typhoon Halong 2014 (160 mph)


Super Typhoon Genevieve 2014 (160 mph)


Hurricane Marie 2014 (160 mph)


Super Typhoon Vongfong 2014 (180 mph)


Super Typhoon Nuri 2014 (180 mph)


Hurricane Wilma 2005 (185 mph)


Super Typhoon Bopha/Pablo 2012 (175 mph)


Maysak 2015 (160 mph)


Pam 2015 (165 mph)


I have more images if you wanna see...other storms with at least 160 mph.
I'm not saying that Blanca had 160 mph, i'm just saying that COULD reach 160 mph at least, even 175 mph.
Look what's headed my way. :)



In case the image doesn't work Link

I can hear it growling at me...
and we have a Triple Crown Winner .... took 37 years ....
That shot of IR Haiyan never fails to impress me.
Quoting 96. nonblanche:

Look what's headed my way. :)



In case the image doesn't work Link

I can hear it growling at me...


your link got a 404...
Quoting 99. PedleyCA:



your link got a 404...


Still hates Google photos. I'll edit it shortly. It was a radar shot; the yellow and orange part of the cell is shaped like a spinning triskelion. It may be breaking up, but still gonna be a windy one.
Quoting 98. CybrTeddy:

That shot of IR Haiyan never fails to impress me.


Watching years of satellite images I have never seen anything so impressive, beautiful, and scary.
Anybody have any good images of past hurricanes?
Quoting 98. CybrTeddy:

That shot of IR Haiyan never fails to impress me.

It'll be a while before we see something like that again. I wish the JTWC would invest in recon again if at all possible--what a mission flying into Haiyan would have been.
Quoting 92. JohnLonergan:

I know it only takes one Einstein to overturn the established paradigm but do we have the next


or just another
?




Thankfully it's pretty easy to tell the difference, it seems some think an Einstein means being an arm chair scientist and "boldly" resisting all established science without the incredible amount hard work and discovery that Einstein actually did.

Naturally, I would think then there will be many more easily distinguished clowns before there is another Einstein ;)

I'm not really sure why people bother wasting their time trolling as arm chair scientists, it seems pretty lame, and I would think there are far better ways to have some fun.
Quoting 97. PedleyCA:

and we have a Triple Crown Winner .... took 37 years ....

Pretty awesome, though. I watched all three of Affirmed's TC race wins in '78. I was beginning to think I'd never see another horse take it. So many came so close.

Aaand, back to weather...91 and sunny here in Baton Rouge.
Quoting 91. CybrTeddy:

I don't mean to be disrespectful or to fail to underscore the importance of having a proper understanding of climate change, but can we please take a break just for one blog? It makes sense to have this discussion when climate change is the subject of the blog topic, but last blog was way too heated and the topic is about Blanca, a Category 3 major hurricane currently threatening Baja California and Sorroco Island.


I don't think it gets breaks anymore, as Pat would say "welcome to the anthropocene". :) Anyways, I found it much more enjoyable than fantasizing about day 10 model runs, heck at one point some bloggers had already named future "Claudette". But to each their own, and I don't think you're wrong. Enjoy Blanca, hope everyone escapes major catastrophe.
Quoting 106. Naga5000:



I don't think it gets breaks anymore, as Pat would say "welcome to the anthropocene". :) Anyways, I found it much more enjoyable than fantasizing about day 10 model runs, heck at one point some bloggers had already named future "Claudette". But to each their own, and I don't think you're wrong. Enjoy Blanca, hope everyone escapes major catastrophe.


I hope I didn't sound like I'm trying to shut you or anyone up or something like that, because I do enjoy reading the discussions here when it's the topic or on Dr. Ricky Rood's climate change blog. Maybe you, Yoboi, and the rest could find a way to move it over there for now?
Trying this again.



In case it doesn't load an image.

And in case the above link is the wrong picture, edit: Link
...BLANCA'S EYE PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...
6:00 PM MDT Sat Jun 6
Location: 18.7°N 110.1°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Quoting 108. CybrTeddy:



I hope I didn't sound like I'm trying to shut you or anyone up or something like that, because I do enjoy reading the discussions here when it's the topic or on Dr. Ricky Rood's climate change blog. Maybe you, Yoboi, and the rest could find a way to move it over there for now?


No offense taken at all.
For the Archive,

History'






Quoting 442. Patrap:

Nola Roux just delivered her first german Shepherd Puppy of this litter.




Congratulations to you and Rue..May they all be healthy and happy.
Blanca's really starting to feel the impacts of moving into cooler SSTs. This is probably closer to 95 knots right now. Had TCHP been more plentiful earlier, I have no doubt Blanca would have become a powerful Category 5 hurricane. I'm grateful this happened earlier in the year than in September, as we would likely have been dealing a major problem for Baja.

Still though, we're likely going to see several more major problems this year for the Mexican coastline. It's only June 6th and the EPAC has already produced two powerful Category 4 hurricanes.

Quoting 53. wartsttocs:



Looks like a decent arctic low pressure system underway. All that wind could break up sea ice and result in a very small arctic sea ice area this summer much like the 2012 season. Sad face.......


This arctic low pressure system should decrease snow cover in a very dramatic way, here the forecast for June 12th:



Snow cover is very importing in the melting season, because of the thermal insulation it provides and such a dramatic decrease would be unprecedented. I will be watching this closely. If the forecast comes true, than all bets are off.
117. yoboi
Quoting 80. Patrap:

I may do a book on Hip waders.


Deep derp.


Many for sale in Miami....
For you Gro...

One of me favorites...1977,s Hurricane Anita..Notice that mean look to the image and the solid ring on radar...



Hurricane Anita on September 2, 1977, approaching the Gulf coast of Mexico.
Formed August 29, 1977
Dissipated September 4, 1977
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 175 mph
Lowest pressure 926 mbar 27.34 inHg
Fatalities 11 direct
Areas affected Northeastern Mexico
1975,s Hurricane Eloise..Also a very vicious storm..



Hurricane Eloise in the Gulf of Mexico before striking Florida



Formed September 13, 1975
Dissipated September 24, 1975
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 125 mph
Lowest pressure 955 mbar ; 28.2 inHg
Fatalities 80 direct
Damage $560 million (1975 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, Yucatán Peninsula, Florida, Eastern United States
Quoting 109. nonblanche:
Trying this again.



In case it doesn't load an image.

And in case the above link is the wrong picture, edit: Link
Pretty spooky looking. Google doesn't produce a useable image in terms of posting it on the net. All you can do is link to it as you did, which I suspect is part of Google's plan to drive us to their service. There are more storms headed your way. You can really see the broad circulation from the low in southern Idaho on the National Mosaic Radar. The storms are moving from the NE to the SW, which is the opposite direction of most summertime storms out there. You'll be getting winds from the ENE so make sure you have things tied down that would be affected by winds from that direction. I don't know if the storms will make it to the coast but they are in the Sacramento Valley already. Weird stuff for this time of year.
Quoting 62. Naga5000:



This should be good.


Given his posting history and general antics, the only degree I can see him getting is one that he prints off his computer. There is nothing in his posting history that would indicate even an undergrad level of education, let alone graduate studies.

And 6 months to a Ph.D? Yeah okay. He can't even mount a coherent defense of his positions against random internet bloggers. How is any work he presents going to stand up in a Ph.D thesis defense? He'd be booted from the program before he hit the five minute mark.
Quoting 110. CybrTeddy:
...BLANCA'S EYE PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...
6:00 PM MDT Sat Jun 6
Location: 18.7°N 110.1°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
The Isla Soccoro weather station is offline but the last reported winds were 53 mph with gusts from the NW at 64 mph. I don't know if they lost their generator power or their internet link but both are probably equally possible.
Quoting 92. JohnLonergan:

I know it only takes one Einstein to overturn the established paradigm but do we have the next


or just another
?




I vote for Rick Santorum, in a very crowded clown car, he wants the Pope to leave climate change to the scientists, well the Pope has a Masters degree in chemistry.
So the physical properties of a molecule should be right up his alley.

I can't believe I'm living in a world where I'm pulling for the Pope, and the wing nuts are trying to figure out to attack him.

Life truly is a funny ole' dog.
Quoting 105. LAbonbon:

Pretty awesome, though. I watched all three of Affirmed's TC race wins in '78. I was beginning to think I'd never see another horse take it. So many came so close.

Aaand, back to weather...91 and sunny here in Baton Rouge.
The high here was 95. It's humid as all get out even with the supposedly drier air. I'd hate to see what it would be like with moist air. Down to 85 now, so that is a sign of some drier air moving in. It's only four days since my last rain but things are starting to dry out in all this heat. Things don't get above a 30% chance of thunderstorms until Wednesday so I guess I'll have to start dragging hoses around the yard again.
Quoting 121. Xyrus2000:



Given his posting history and general antics, the only degree I can see him getting is one that he prints off his computer. There is nothing in his posting history that would indicate even an undergrad level of education, let alone graduate studies.

And 6 months to a Ph.D? Yeah okay. He can't even mount a coherent defense of his positions against random internet bloggers. How is any work he presents going to stand up in a Ph.D thesis defense? He'd be booted from the program before he hit the five minute mark.



I never got as far as defending a PhD dissertation, but just defending our senior seminars and senior thesis at the polytechnische Institut were bad enough. Those chemistry profs could be really vicious.
121. Xyrus2000

I'd love see that thesis being defended as well. The wordy title , impressive. My guess is the review panel at Hub Cap University in Tobago, won't be pressing very hard.
Quoting 120. sar2401:

Pretty spooky looking. Google doesn't produce a useable image in terms of posting it on the net. All you can do is link to it as you did, which I suspect is part of Google's plan to drive us to their service. There are more storms headed your way. You can really see the broad circulation from the low in southern Idaho on the National Mosaic Radar. The storms are moving from the NE to the SW, which is the opposite direction of most summertime storms out there. You'll be getting winds from the ENE so make sure you have things tied down that would be affected by winds from that direction. I don't know if the storms will make it to the coast but they are in the Sacramento Valley already. Weird stuff for this time of year.


Dunno if you read, but Hawthorne had a EF0/EF1/EF0 tornado rip the roofs off a few buildings. No injuries, but I can almost see the properties that were damaged; I drive through there whenever I have to go south.

Our storm seemed to break up pretty quick; and I'm feeling the barometric pressure make me headachy and queasy. It's also got the kids twitchy.

It's like we're inheriting Arizona's weather or something.
Good night hello with the latest from the current weather war in southern Germany including the G7 summit (hope I don't bore you while watching Blanca).

1) Summit (update on post #35): Severe storms which were drenching the area around Elmau Castle Hotel have lifted to the north in the last hours. For some time weather should be fair at the northern slopes of the Alps, allowing the world leaders (including POTUS who should arrive in Munich at 7 am local time) to reach their nice accomodation. Protesters in their wet camping site decided to keep their ground although some of them are said to have moved to a more cosy place for the night (like a gym). This is what the camp looked like in the evening (to get the whole picture: look at what our Sar said in post #48 about the prices of the hotel for the leaders, lol):


Foto: Getty images; Source: Spiegel live report.

However: tomorrow afternoon severe weather should resume in the northern Alps and remain bad for the rest of the summit, including Monday :-(

2) Severe storms, leaving the Alps to the north, are currently causing annoyance in Bavaria. I've told you this morning, that last night a big rock festival ("Rock am Ring", 90 000 participants, mid-west Germany) was hit by several thunderstorms with crazy lightning, sending 33 persons to hospital (but without severe injuries, thankfully). Well, there is another rock festival in Germany right now: "Rock im Park" in Bavaria at Nuremberg (with approx. 80.000 visitors). This festival was just evacuated because of those storms traveling north from the Alps. Chaos once again - and the same musicians who played yesterday at "Rock am Ring" performed today at "Rock im Park", lol. So far one injury: a famous DJ suffered from a broken leg as he fell off the stage - but this was without interference of severe weather ;-)


Thunderstorms surrounding Nuremberg some minutes ago. Looks like the town with the concert "Rock im Park" was spared the worst; it's pouring though (according to Twitter). But after the bad experiences in Mendig's "Rock am Ring" yesterday, when they resumed the concert after two storms just to get hit by the third and most severe, advised the authorities to stay on the side of caution I guess.

So far the latest from weatherwise quite interesting Germany right now. Have a good night everybody and all the best to those in the path of Blanca!
Quoting 121. Xyrus2000:



Given his posting history and general antics, the only degree I can see him getting is one that he prints off his computer. There is nothing in his posting history that would indicate even an undergrad level of education, let alone graduate studies.

And 6 months to a Ph.D? Yeah okay. He can't even mount a coherent defense of his positions against random internet bloggers. How is any work he presents going to stand up in a Ph.D thesis defense? He'd be booted from the program before he hit the five minute mark.

ouch...lordy...that had to sting a little...
From WECT

Surf City, NC
129. barbamz

(hope I don't bore you while watching Blanca).

You post some of the most interesting items on these threads. I for one read every word. You're our man in Europe , and you do cracker jack work, cracker jack.
Quoting 105. LAbonbon:


Pretty awesome, though. I watched all three of Affirmed's TC race wins in '78. I was beginning to think I'd never see another horse take it. So many came so close.

Aaand, back to weather...91 and sunny here in Baton Rouge.
I watched the Belmont in 78 with family. My Mom is seriously into the races. I do remember ( vaguely ) watching the 73 race when Secretariat won. Mostly because of the yells and screams...and the partying . :)
Quoting 133. ColoradoBob1:

129. barbamz

(hope I don't bore you while watching Blanca).

You post some of the most interesting items on these threads. I for one read every word. You're our man in Europe , and you do cracker jack work, cracker jack.

Hope I am "your woman" though, but wait ... lol.
And thanks, Bob. I cherish this blog so much and have learned so much from most of the posts in here ...
If I took a job in a grocery store. Fella says I'll make a crackerjack clerk. Crackerjack.

Steve McQeen in the The Magnificent Seven

Quoting 87. vis0:

cookie for LongIslandBeaches?
image host
yes yes...if there are any extra....WU mail them here...will not go to waste...
Thunderstorms popped up, moving southwest towards WIlmington, Carolina/Kure Beach, and eastern Brunswick County.
Quoting 136. barbamz:


Hope I am "your woman" though, but wait ... lol.
And thanks, Bob. I cherish this blog so much and have learned so much from most of the posts in here ...


Don't worry , you are crackerjack.
Quoting 92. JohnLonergan:

I know it only takes one Einstein to overturn the established paradigm but do we have the next


or just another
?


Just a BTW, John .D. Norton (Distinguished Professor in Department of History and Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh) has written some fascinating short essays in layman's terms on the thought processes that led Einstein to his Theory of Special Relativity. Well worth reading, on John D. Norton's Goodies Page.
Blanca not looking too good atm
looks like things will go down hill for her rapidly from now on

currently she is passing the 27 degree SST mark and declining
starting to run into 20kt NWterly shear
dry air not much however but I do think that would change as more shear gets to it
the strongest convection in the core is starting to fade only a bit on the NW quad is remaining strong but I think that soon would be in the past
Quoting 141. guygee:

Just a BTW, John .D. Norton (Distinguished Professor in Department of History and Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh) has written some fascinating short essays in layman's terms on the thought processes that led Einstein to his Theory of Special Relativity. Well worth reading, on John D. Norton's Goodies Page.


Thanks, it looks very interesting.
Quoting 125. JohnLonergan:



I never got as far as defending a PhD dissertation, but just defending our senior seminars and senior thesis at the polytechnische Institut were bad enough. Those chemistry profs could be really vicious.


John, you went to a German school?
Ha but it was that upper trough that gave us that fantastic rain

Quoting 69. wunderkidcayman:



and
I would expect more shear to decrease as the upper trof pulls out

I think this would happen within the next 24-48hrs or so
148. OCF
Southern California: this afternoon, I saw a large, mature-looking, slow-moving thunderstorm off to the north, either over the San Gabriel Mountains or over the desert to the north. That's a common sight in July or August, but early June seems a little early to be seeing that. That, and as cool as the temperatures have been running, it doesn't really feel like summer yet.

But I don't think it had anything to do with either Andres or Blanca; it seems to be more something extratropical retrograding over the western U.S.
Quoting 144. Grothar:



John, you went to a German school?


No, it was a standing joke with some students to call WPI "das polytechnische Institut" because of a large number of German born and educated professors.
"If God had not made them sheep , he would not want them sheared."

Calvera.

That is pretty much our system today.
Quoting 148. OCF:

Southern California: this afternoon, I saw a large, mature-looking, slow-moving thunderstorm off to the north, either over the San Gabriel Mountains or over the desert to the north. That's a common sight in July or August, but early June seems a little early to be seeing that. That, and as cool as the temperatures have been running, it doesn't really feel like summer yet.

But I don't think it had anything to do with either Andres or Blanca; it seems to be more something extratropical retrograding over the western U.S.

AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING A WARMING AND CLEARING TREND
TO THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FOR MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING OVER THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LINGERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

....(snip)
“Reminds me of that fella back home who fell off a ten-story building. As he was falling, people on each floor kept hearing him say, “So far, so good.” Heh, so far, so good”
Quoting 151. JohnLonergan:



No, it was a standing joke with some students to call WPI "das polytechnische Institut" because of a large number of German born and educated professors.


Yes, we do have that reputation. :):)


Calvera: Somehow I don't think you've solved my problem.

Chris: Solving your problems isn't our line.
They are farmers. They talk of nothing but fertilizer and women. I have never shared their enthusiasm for fertilizer. As for women, I became indifferent when I was eighty-three.
Quoting 129. barbamz:
Good night hello with the latest from the current weather war in southern Germany including the G7 summit (hope I don't bore you while watching Blanca).

1) Summit (update on post #35): Severe storms which were drenching the area around Elmau Castle Hotel have lifted to the north in the last hours. For some time weather should be fair at the northern slopes of the Alps, allowing the world leaders (including POTUS who should arrive in Munich at 7 am local time) to reach their nice accomodation. Protesters in their wet camping site decided to keep their ground although some of them are said to have moved to a more cosy place for the night (like a gym). This is what the camp looked like in the evening (to get the whole picture: look at what our Sar said in post #48 about the prices of the hotel for the leaders, lol
Yes, it would seem the spa over in the third tent was probably not doing much business tonight, being flooded and all. :-) I still can't get over those prices. I wonder if they got a group rate?


Chris: You heard of anything?

Vin: Just shooing some flies away from a Mexican village, but I can't find out what it pays.

Chris: Twenty dollars.

Vin: A week?

Vin: Six weeks.

Vin: Oh, that's ridiculous. Have you heard of anything?

Chris: Yeah. Shooing away some flies from a Mexican village. Theirs.

Vin: That wouldn't even pay for my bullets.

Villager: We understand. You could make much more in a grocery store. And it would be good, steady work.

Chris: [Sarcastically] Yeah.

Vin: How many you got?

Chris: [Puts up one finger. Vin reluctantly puts up two]
Quoting 148. OCF:

Southern California: this afternoon, I saw a large, mature-looking, slow-moving thunderstorm off to the north, either over the San Gabriel Mountains or over the desert to the north. That's a common sight in July or August, but early June seems a little early to be seeing that. That, and as cool as the temperatures have been running, it doesn't really feel like summer yet.

But I don't think it had anything to do with either Andres or Blanca; it seems to be more something extratropical retrograding over the western U.S.


I watched the thunderstorms also. It is from an Upper Level Low that has entrained moisture from Andreas into AZ and wrapped it around the low from the north. Impressive convection today.
Quoting 114. hydrus:

Quoting 442. Patrap:

Nola Roux just delivered her first german Shepherd Puppy of this litter.




Congratulations to you and Rue..May they all be healthy and happy.


Thanks hydrus.

Nola Roux delivered 8 puppies total.

3 Males and 5 females.

Image from Her Hurricane Isaac born litter of August 2012

Quoting 127. nonblanche:


Dunno if you read, but Hawthorne had a EF0/EF1/EF0 tornado rip the roofs off a few buildings. No injuries, but I can almost see the properties that were damaged; I drive through there whenever I have to go south.

Our storm seemed to break up pretty quick; and I'm feeling the barometric pressure make me headachy and queasy. It's also got the kids twitchy.

It's like we're inheriting Arizona's weather or something.
I hadn't heard about the tornado in Hawthorne. Depending on what area of town it hit it might be hard to tell. :-) Hawthorne has been hit by a fair number of tornadoes for Nevada. It must have something to do with that valley being so open and then backing up to the mountains to the west. There's a new low that has formed near Vegas and another one in northern California so you're getting squeezed between them. I imagine the barometer is doing some funny things. This is the kind of weather system that can bring big snows to the deserts in winter. In June...well, I guess we can blame El Nino.
Blanca is in the running for the "Most-Difficult-To-Forecast East Pacific hurricane" award:

Quoting 103. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be a while before we see something like that again. I wish the JTWC would invest in recon again if at all possible--what a mission flying into Haiyan would have been.
The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force (otherwise known as the Air Force) has 15 C-130H Hercules aircraft, similar in specs to the C-130's flown out of Keesler by the Air Force Reserve squadron. The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (otherwise known as the Navy) has 93 P-3C Orion aircraft similar in specs to the Orion's flown by NOAA. The Japanese have more than enough equipment to equip a typhoon hunter flight. Japan simply refuses to do so. Why, I have no idea. Maybe the citizens of Japan can ask their government that question.
Quoting 78. Astrometeor:


Significant =/= one. I know it's been a slow year Codfish, but come on. I get a severe weather threat, yes, but not the significant part.
I will join the Codfish in being surprised with the tornado outcome so far. :-) Two of the four reported tornadoes were in far southeastern Utah. They never get tornadoes there. One of the hail reports was penny to quarter size hail 50 miles SW of Blanding, UT that was four to five feet deep(!). That is literally out in the middle of the howling desert. I'm sure they got some hail but, four to five feet deep? It does not say how the report was originated, but it seems someone in the NWS office over in Grand Junction needs to do a quality control check on that one. Not one single tornado report from the "enhanced" risk area so far. This has been a season of enhanced risk with a lot of days of unenhanced storms.
Quoting 160. brandyn:



I watched the thunderstorms also. It is from an Upper Level Low that has entrained moisture from Andreas into AZ and wrapped it around the low from the north. Impressive convection today.


Looks more like the influence of strong forcing and cold air aloft from the upper low than moisture, most of the west has very dry air at levels about what occur with only the strongest frontal passages here in the southeast. It's almost hard to believe convection can actually be "squeezed" out of air this dry:



Blanca looks like its weakening and will disspate over the next few days after it impacts the Baja California peninsula. This is an interesting and very hard to predict system and is challenging. We will see.

Read more..
Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa is almost borning:


There's also a lot of altitude convection has to work with that we don't. All of Nevada and most of the Mojave is Basin and Range territory so the air is being uplifted over some pretty big mountains, many over 10,000 feet. That makes up for a lot of PW at lower altitudes. Even .40 to .50 PW readings are relatively high for June in the desert. Even so, most storms only flare up for a couple of hours during the heat of the day and die out quickly after sunset since they are really fairly weak compared to what we see.
Invest 95A/ almost 01A/Ashobaa.


Under extremely hot waters:
Link
My latest tropical update.
Quoting 169. sar2401:

There's also a lot of altitude convection has to work with that we don't. All of Nevada aand most of the Mojave is Basin and range territory so the air is being uplifted over some pretty big mountains, many over 10,000 feet. That makes up for a lot of PW at lower altitudes. Even .40 to .50 PW readings are relatively high for June in the desert. Even so, most storms only flare up for a couple of hours during the heat of the day and die out quickly after sunset since they are really fairly weak compared to what we see.


In AZ though, it's common to have severe thunderstorms that don't produce much precip due to low PW situations, it's actually easier to get large hail and damaging winds in drier air given similar dynamic conditions in place, drier air enhances downburst potential, and drier air also enhances evaporative cooling which can steepen lapse rates and help the hail growth process. That's why high plains thunderstorms, especially front range ones, are known best for large hail potential, especially the kind that is very bright and white, indicating air bubbles that form in the hail formation process. It's an indication of a lot of space between water droplets.

Hail down here in the southeast is sometimes known as "soft hail" it's more clear in most cases due to more often a more dense concentration of super cooled droplets that the developing hail passes through in higher water content air.


But yes, higher elevation doesn't need nearly as much moisture to produce thunderstorms due to forced lifting from the slopes, and due to already higher elevation giving convection steep lapse rates to work with and very low air pressure, helping to aid in maximum condensation in dry environments.

That's why devastating floods are so common in Central America, add deep tropical moisture to a lot of high terrain, and incredible rainfall amounts are "squeezed" out due to the efficiency of forced lifting by mountainous terrain.
CDO is becoming asymmetric, cloud tops are really warming.

Quoting 130. hydrus:

ouch...lordy...that had to sting a little...


It's an objective analysis. Ph.D advisors have a very low tolerance for crap, and they will tell you in no uncertain terms if your work is crap. And if it stays crap for too long they'll kick you right out of the program. They aren't paid to be nice, nor are they paid to put up with BS.
The 0z GFS indicates development of the area of low pressure the NHC is forecasting to form into a healthy Tropical Storm Carlos. Similar to the Bay of Campeche, cyclones forming near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have to be watched closely for rapid intensification due to the way wind deflects around the mountain ranges. The question thereafter becomes what happens as its remnants cross into the Bay of Campeche? Models aren't particularly bullish about development chances there, but then again, they usually never are. The forecast upper-level setup looks conducive, with broad anticyclonic flow aloft. It's just something to keep monitoring for now.
??

Quoting 159. ColoradoBob1:



Chris: You heard of anything?

Vin: Just shooing some flies away from a Mexican village, but I can't find out what it pays.

Chris: Twenty dollars.

Vin: A week?

Vin: Six weeks.

Vin: Oh, that's ridiculous. Have you heard of anything?

Chris: Yeah. Shooing away some flies from a Mexican village. Theirs.

Vin: That wouldn't even pay for my bullets.

Villager: We understand. You could make much more in a grocery store. And it would be good, steady work.

Chris: [Sarcastically] Yeah.

Vin: How many you got?

Chris: [Puts up one finger. Vin reluctantly puts up two]
Hurricane BLANCA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

notting to watch in the Atlantic right now and the next five days
Quoting 166. Jedkins01:



Looks more like the influence of strong forcing and cold air aloft from the upper low than moisture, most of the west has very dry air at levels about what occur with only the strongest frontal passages here in the southeast. It's almost hard to believe convection can actually be "squeezed" out of air this dry:






The precipitation water values are actually quite high for this time of year in this area. Had the upper level low not tapped into the moisture, it would likely not have produced much of anything. Hanford WX was talking about this a few days ago. The combination of positive vorticity advection, leftover outflow boundaries from Sierra Storms, and essentially unrestricted sunlight created some pretty awesome thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts today.

In Northern CA they are dealing with several lightning sparked fires..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
DEPRESSION ARB01-2015
8:30 AM IST June 7 2015
==============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over east central Arabian sea and lays centered near 14.5BN 68.5E, about 690 km southwest of Mumbai, 740 km south southwest of Veraval and 1230 km southeast of Masirah island, Oman. It would move north northwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 6.0N & 19.5N and 63.0E & 74.0E and Lakshadweep. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is estimated at 20-25 knots gusting to 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough around the system. The central pressure of the depression is 1004 hPa.

The sea surface temperature is 30-32C, ocean thermal energy is about 100-120 kj/cm2, low level convergence is (15-20) x 105 second-1, upper level divergence is about (20-30) x 10- 5 second -1, the low level relative vorticity is about (10-20) x 10-5 second -1, vertical wind shear is moderate (20-30 knots). Upper tropospheric ridge lies along 20.0N There is trough in westerlies in middle troposphere to the west of the system. Under these conditions, the depression would move slowly northwards/north northwestwards during next 24 hours.
185. vis0
Quoting 138. hydrus:

yes yes...if there are any extra....WU mail them here...will not go to waste...
sorry no extra cookies but ya can check a low quality preview of "treebreezes" VID on my blog cmmnt #103 there, tell sar2401 too...that there is no extra cookies.
Quoting 125. JohnLonergan:



I never got as far as defending a PhD dissertation, but just defending our senior seminars and senior thesis at the polytechnische Institut were bad enough. Those chemistry profs could be really vicious.
Indeed.. Mine was vicious....and a genius...And did not tolerate any B.S...I love science, but managed only a C...
Up to 5.41" for June after close to an inch yesterday.

bianca...california.or.bust
stormtop!!!!
Good morning Scott, could you please explain to me why some of us here in ECFL (Melbourne) have not seen the rainy season kick in yet. Would it be the persistent ridge and the faster moving inland sea breeze along the coast? instead of the west coast sea breeze pushing in faster from the west and the ridge breaking down?
Quoting 187. StormTrackerScott:

Up to 5.41" for June after close to an inch yesterday.


Carlos coming soon.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a trough of low
prssure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive
for some development of this system by midweek while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent



Quoting 123. ColoradoBob1:



I vote for Rick Santorum, in a very crowded clown car, he wants the Pope to leave climate change to the scientists, well the Pope has a Masters degree in chemistry.
So the physical properties of a molecule should be right up his alley.

I can't believe I'm living in a world where I'm pulling for the Pope, and the wing nuts are trying to figure out to attack him.

Life truly is a funny ole' dog.


When I post things with politics I get banned, well guess depends what political party your bashing in here!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. A FEW EARLY STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM VERO BEACH TO STUART AND PUSH
INLAND WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL MERGE THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM WEST OF METRO ORLANDO TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

Good Sunday morning with the latest Bavarian summit weather news:
After the deluge yesterday evening picturebook weather this morning, and some minutes ago our Angie got her ecofriendly postcard weather family photo in front of Elmau Castle Hotel, lol:




Hope none of the leaders is suffering from hay fever. Photos: dpa/Spiegel online. With more photos and a livestream, currently showing the protests.

POTUS obviously had a good time this morning. He just regretted forgetting his lederhose (no mention yet of the rubber boots he might need later on, lol):




Beer was alcohol-free, btw.

Official program (source):
Chancellor Angela Merkel will be welcoming her guests in Schloss Elmau on Sunday at 13:00. This will be followed by the first working session of the seven heads of state and government along with the Presidents of the European Commission and the European Council. The topics on the agenda will be the global economy, growth and values. The second working session, which is due to start at 15:00, will look at trade and standards. During the working dinner, as of 20:30, the summit participants will be discussing foreign and security policy matters.
On Monday morning participants will discuss climate and energy issues as of 09:00. At 10:45 this will be followed by talks with the heads of state and government of African nations and representatives of international organisations. Topics will include development policy, the post-2015 agenda, women, health and Africa. To wind up the summit, Chancellor Angela Merkel will invite media representatives to a press conference which has been provisionally scheduled for 14:30.
The summit will also offer the Chancellor the opportunity to conduct bilateral meetings with the individual heads of state and government. Shortly before the summit starts she will meet with US President Barack Obama. The two leaders will meet local citizens in the nearby village of Kruen. At the subsequent meeting in Schloss Elmau they will be focusing primarily on the issues on the G7 summit agenda.


Today in the afternoon thunderstorms should develop. Pre-alert map from a German weather site:


Source: wetteronline.de

Let's see what happens. Some storms are already popping up:



Surface analysis for today, showing the occluded frontal boundary of "Lothar" over the Alps (hope I got this right, lol. In any case: instable airmass).
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ552-071315-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0032.150607T1226Z-150607T1315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
826 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM...

* UNTIL 915 AM EDT

* AT 822 AM EDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER ON THE INDIAN RIVER
NORTH OF THE PINEDA CAUSEWAY REPORTED A WATER SPOUT OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN
PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE DEVELOPING NORTH TOWARD CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK...CAPE CANAVERAL...COCOA BEACH AND
PLAYALINDA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&
Just landed in dallas.......nice to see the overflowing lakes and ponds due to the may rains....A huge difference from a year ago
Quoting 194. barbamz:

Good Sunday morning with the latest Bavarian summit weather news:
snip

Beer was alcohol-free, btw.



In Bayern, das ist nicht möglich
Grand Junction might be a bit twitchy after seeing figure 4 of Bob Henderson's blog post, considering the Blanca's trail ends there, I'm personally wondering if I'll have to evacuate if the remnants make it that far, considering the river I live right next to (on the 5 year floodplain no less) is within 2 ft of bankfull.

Post #165,
It is entirely possible, awhile I live in the heart of the mountains, and have very little worry of tornadoes, I have heard stories of a few coming through the area. EF0's and the like.

I really cant expect one in my town, the immediate local terrain makes a ground touching tornado nearly impossible, unless it ran on a perfect south to north track. one thing I remember from growing up in southeastern UT though, was that there are alot of mesas and plateaus where a landing tornado might gain purchase, but the population out that way is so low that much real damage is unlikely, even the agriculture there is concentrated in the bottoms of steep canyons
Quoting 198. JohnLonergan:



In Bayern, das ist nicht möglich


unless they're drinking Tuscher, Alkohol frie
Quoting 198. JohnLonergan:

In Bayern, das ist nicht moeglich

Lol, John. I guess for a happening like this everything is possible. F.e. there are more than 21.000 (!) German and Austrian cops on duty in and around the summit location. A lot of them roaming the mountains to prevent any villain from sneaking near the VIPs. Those cops sure won't like more severe storms with downpours, hail and strong gusts, as predicted.


One of the webcams in the region shows the build up of clouds. (Saved pic; source for updates and more beautiful cams).

Video: Flying to the G7: Helicopter takes journalists to the summit, BBC 17 minutes ago

Edit: I've jut read that the shot of the "family photo" (post #194) was taken some hours earlier than scheduled to take advantage of the sunshine. And they were right to do so as now dark clouds already set in. (photo see Spiegel live report)
BBL
This





Plus observation:
Study: Dry May Raises Odds For South Florida Hurricane

A dry May ``approximately doubles the chances for a hurricane or a major hurricane to strike. It`s not a sure thing, not a 1-to-1, but the odds increase,``


Rutt-Roo?
Quoting 174. Xyrus2000:



It's an objective analysis. Ph.D advisors have a very low tolerance for crap, and they will tell you in no uncertain terms if your work is crap. And if it stays crap for too long they'll kick you right out of the program. They aren't paid to be nice, nor are they paid to put up with BS.


I thought you couldn't get in unless you had a BS or MS?
LOL Grothar, you surprised me since you are usually so "proper".
Quoting 205. Grothar:






Well that's interesting. We've seen those ensemble tracks for a few days now.
things are about to change. sheer is dropping rather quickly in the MDR.
Quoting 108. CybrTeddy:



I hope I didn't sound like I'm trying to shut you or anyone up or something like that, because I do enjoy reading the discussions here when it's the topic or on Dr. Ricky Rood's climate change blog. Maybe you, Yoboi, and the rest could find a way to move it over there for now?
I would very much like to see your desire for less climate trolling and responses by science-aware defenders of truth that often clutter up the Masters/Henson blog happen, Teddy.

However, unlike regular trolling for attention, AGW/CC denialist trolling has a bigger purpose - spreading the anti-science propaganda of the denialist community.

Many people feel that lies, misinformation, pseudoscience and bad science falsely stated as true or valid should not go unchallenged. When someone posts the same untruths for the 20th time, it is no long simply expressing an "opinion" - it is trolling and disrupting a blog.

Dr. Rood's Climate blog is much more science-oriented than this blog with respect to the commenters (who are now called "bloggers" in common usage just like the person who wrote the blog - the original meaning of "blogger). This blog seems to be like a sandbox in a playground where knowledgeable as well as poorly-informed weather and tropical and severe weather fans hang out and have fun pursuing their interests and interacting with each other. There are a lot of excellent amateur and professional meteorologists here, and I enjoy reading their enthusiastic debates when the likelihood of severe weather increases. As a matter of fact, I am in awe of the knowledge and analytical of some of the commenters here.

Regarding your request, over at Dr. Rood's blog, we discuss climate science and related weather topics - and like here, banter a bit as "cyber-friends." The Rood Regulars do not condemn intelligent questions and the expression of skepticism based on logic and limited knowledge, and have put a lot of effort into educating the less knowledgeable. But when a troll not only fails to try to learn about climate, but refuses to engage in a discussion, their posts are often usually flagged into oblivion.

So, unfortunately for you, some of them came over here, and found a place where they can freely post their repeatedly debunked misinformation and falsehoods. A few trolls have discovered that their is a high level of tolerance for their antics by the regulars here, and they are having a field day as they thumb their noses at those of you who would like a more civil and focused discussion.

The only way those of you will get rid of the climate trolls is to not tolerate trolling. Simply asking people who know and discuss climate science to shut up and stop their defense of truth and science will not work. The regulars at this blog got rid of the hurricane trolls, but seem to be unable to deal with climate trolls.

At Dr.Rood's blog, se greatly reduced - almost eliminated - the trolling problem. Personally, I also flag actual trolling here, but I most certainly do not flag honest and well-grounded questions and opinions, and most certainly I do not flag anyone just for posting. Some of the trolls also contribute to honest weather discussions, and I will plus their comments if I "like" them (which is the criteria for plussing - not that you necessarily "agree" with the comment).

So you'll have to deal with the denialist trolls, Teddy - don't blame the defenders of science and truth for cluttering up these comments.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 202. nrtiwlnvragn:
This





Plus observation:
Study: Dry May Raises Odds For South Florida Hurricane

A dry May ``approximately doubles the chances for a hurricane or a major hurricane to strike. It`s not a sure thing, not a 1-to-1, but the odds increase,``


Rutt-Roo?
That article is from 1993? How has the dry May/hurricane thing worked out since then?
Quoting 208. Xulonn:

I would very much like to see your desire for less climate trolling and responses by science-aware defenders of truth that often clutter up the Masters/Henson blog happen, Teddy.

However, unlike regular trolling for attention, AGW/CC denialist trolling has a bigger purpose - spreading the anti-science propaganda of the denialist community.

Many people feel that lies, misinformation, pseudoscience and bad science falsely stated as true or valid should not go unchallenged. When someone posts the same untruths for the 20th time, it is no long simply expressing an "opinion" - it is trolling and disrupting a blog.

Dr. Rood's Climate blog is much more science-oriented than this blog with respect to the commenters (who are now called "bloggers" in common usage just like the person who wrote the blog - the original meaning of "blogger). This blog seems to be like a sandbox in a playground where knowledgeable as well as poorly-informed weather and tropical and severe weather fans hang out and have fun pursuing their interests and interacting with each other. There are a lot of excellent amateur and professional meteorologists here, and I enjoy reading their enthusiastic debates when the likelihood of severe weather increases. As a matter of fact, I am in awe of the knowledge and analytical of some of the commenters here.

Regarding your request, over at Dr. Rood's blog, we discuss climate science and related weather topics - and like here, banter a bit as "cyber-friends." The Rood Regulars do not condemn intelligent questions and the expression of skepticism based on logic and limited knowledge, and have put a lot of effort into educating the less knowledgeable. But when a troll not only fails to try to learn about climate, but refuses to engage in a discussion, their posts are often usually flagged into oblivion.

So, unfortunately for you, some of them came over here, and found a place where they can freely post their repeatedly debunked misinformation and falsehoods. A few trolls have discovered that their is a high level of tolerance for their antics by the regulars here, and they are having a field day as they thumb their noses at those of you who would like a more civil and focused discussion.

The only way those of you will get rid of the climate trolls is to not tolerate trolling. Simply asking people who know and discuss climate science to shut up and stop their defense of truth and science will not work. The regulars at this blog got rid of the hurricane trolls, but seem to be unable to deal with climate trolls.

At Dr.Rood's blog, se greatly reduced - almost eliminated - the trolling problem. Personally, I also flag actual trolling here, but I most certainly do not flag honest and well-grounded questions and opinions, and most certainly I do not flag anyone just for posting. Some of the trolls also contribute to honest weather discussions, and I will plus their comments if I "like" them (which is the criteria for plussing - not that you necessarily "agree" with the comment).

So you'll have to deal with the denialist trolls, Teddy - don't blame the defenders of science and truth for cluttering up these comments.


Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.
Quoting 211. K8eCane:



Well said and makes complete sense. But I will have to disagree with you when you say trolls ( you know who) are allowed to go unchallenged.You guys OVER challenge him and then when he stops, yall keep on about it and continue demeaning him. I have seen it. Just flag him and go on if you know that he is willfully trying to aggravate you for no reason. I personally have thought that he believes what he says, and therefore is not trying to just aggravate somebody, but I could be wrong. I am a retired nurse and i cant help it when I try to save him. I will try to stop that. Its just that when i see the overkill and not just flag and go on, the entire message gets lost and i go into save mode.
Great post Kate...You brought maturity and understanding to the blog...again..:)
Moved to new blog...
Evening all. Cool news on Blanca.... but not cool news that the Baja CA track seems to be persisting ....

Meanwhile on this side of central America, this is about as interesting as it's looked in the SW Car for some time ....