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Hurricane Bertha: 6th strongest early season hurricane on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2008

Hurricane Bertha put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification Monday afternoon, reaching major hurricane status--Category 3--with 120 mph winds and an estimated central pressure of 948 mb. Among early season hurricanes that have formed before August 1, Bertha is the sixth strongest early-season Atlantic hurricane on record. Only 12 early season major hurricanes have formed since record keeping began in 1851, though several were no doubt undocumented before the advent of the aircraft reconnaissance in 1944. Bertha holds the record for the farthest east a major hurricane has formed so early in the season (52°W longitude), easily beating the mark set in 1996 (67°W) by a previous incarnation of Hurricane Bertha. This year's Bertha now holds the record for farthest east formation as a tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane, so early in the season.


Figure 1. Bertha at peak intensity: 21:15 GMT Monday July 7, 2008. At this time, satellite estimates of Bertha's strength were 115 kt (135 mph), making the storm a weak Category 4 hurricane.

Bertha may even have intensified to Category 4 status between 1900 and 2300 GMT yesterday. Satellite estimates of the storm's intensity (Figure 2) from both NHC and the University of Wisconsin during that period were 115 knots (135 mph), which would have made Bertha a low-end Category 4 hurricane. However, it is unclear what Bertha's final official intensity maximum will be, since it reached maximum strength in between the official 6-hourly times used by NHC to document a storm's strength.


Figure 2. Satellite estimates of Bertha's strength using the Automated Dvorak Technique (ADT) showed the storm peaking at 115 knots (135 mph) for a four hour period on July 7, 2008. The "Best Track" line is the official NHC advisory strength, which peaked at 105 knots (120 mph); the AMSU dots are estimates from a polar orbiting instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit; SATCON is a SATellite CONsensus estimate of Bertha's intensity combining several satellite strength estimates. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Bertha's intensification was somewhat surprising, because environmental conditions for intensification were good, but not great. Wind shear was a modest 10-15 knots, Sea Surface Temperatures were 27°C--only 1° above the minimum needed to support a hurricane--and the oceanic heat content was only 20 KJ/cm**2, which is well below the value of 80 typically associated with rapid intensification.

Bertha is probably not a major hurricane any more. Wind shear has increased to 15-20 knots, and the eye has become less distinct and the cloud pattern degraded, as seen on visible satellite loops. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today has been canceled, and no future missions are planned.

The intensity forecast
SSTs will continue to warm to 28°C Wednesday morning underneath Bertha, but wind shear is expected to remain high and possibly increase some later this week. Bertha should gradually decline in strength to Category 1 status by the end of the week.

The track forecast
Bertha is slowing down and turning northward as it "feels" the approach of a trough of low pressure to the north. All of the computer models turn Bertha northwards east of Bermuda, and it currently appears that the island will feel only peripheral effects of Bertha. However, the trough of low pressure turning Bertha to the north may not be strong enough to fully drag the storm into the far North Atlantic, so Bertha may wander close to Bermuda early next week while it waits for another trough of low pressure to finish the job. It is very unlikely Bertha will threaten the U.S., but it could eventually affect Newfoundland, Canada.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The UKMET and GFS models are showing some possible development in the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands about a week from now.

I'll post an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Based upon all the satellite loops I have analyzed, Hurricane Bertha has been moving due west, maybe even slightly south of due west over the past two hours. Looking at the latest steering maps, it appears that this could continue for quite some time. I'm not letting my guard down yet here in Southeast Florida. History has taught me not to do so. As crazy as this may sound, the US East Coast still needs to watch Bertha. Something just doesn't feel right about Bertha.
Thanks Storm

Have a Great Nite aswell and we will see you tomorrow....


Taco :0)
1004. 0741
so this weakness have stay open longer so west track wont seen because of weakness staying open longer
Another loop of bertha going true 270.... starting to scare me a little bertha TURN BABY TURN!!!!
go west, bertha...I'm begging you
mrsea lol all i see are boxs with x's in the middle do you think you could get me a link? or something to copy and paste?
Here's the limk to the CMC and a bunch of others

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
993. cchsweatherman 11:40 PM EDT on July 08, 2008
As crazy as this may sound, the US East Coast still needs to watch Bertha. Something just doesn't feel right about Bertha.


I totally agree with you here. The NHC keeps changing the forecast for Bertha. Even the models are having trouble with her direction. A poster on another thread gave us a link that shows Bertha moving West. So what's wrong with this picture?
STORM WHAT IF THE STORM INTENSIFYS AND BEATS THE TROF? Does she follow another out to sea?
Mr. Sea, can you re-post those links that show a storm near the East Coast this week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008070812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

look at what the cmc is generating off the VA coast is that a rare summer Noreaster?
Quoting 1008. catwomen:
993. cchsweatherman 11:40 PM EDT on July 08, 2008
As crazy as this may sound, the US East Coast still needs to watch Bertha. Something just doesn't feel right about Bertha.


I totally agree with you here. The NHC keeps changing the forecast for Bertha. Even the models are having trouble with her direction. A poster on another thread gave us a link that shows Bertha moving West. So what's wrong with this picture?


Could you provide us with that link? It would be very interesting to see confirmation.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008070818&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

gfs has it to but i forms it more north...
If the NHC says Bertha is moving NW, then why does the frames show Bertha moving West. Lol; this is too funny indeed.
1018. MrSea
If these models are right, it could be similar to the Perfect Storm in a way, i think

CMC


GFS


NGP

most models have bertha at 30N 60W...yeah good luck with that.

there is no way thats happening now right?
Which model has moved west? Here is the link of models w/ mouseover. Link
Sorry guys, cannot understand why the link I posted came back invalid.
Go to Google and search "CMC weather model". I believe it's the first hit
where is the link catwomen?
http://tinyurl.com/6zmptu



I hope this works. Lol;
1025. denmar
#212 mississippiwx23

In terms of geology, why is Bermuda where it is? It really seems out in the middle of no where. Is it on an old hot spot?

We were formed by a volcano but as I understand it, we are no longer above that same hot spot. No indications of any activity in the area as long as I remember.

213. quakeman55

Oh cool, we DO have a Bermuda person checking in on here...so you can let us know of the conditions if Bertha decides to get close. We'll see what she decides to do!


First time checking in on & inputting on the blog but always come by the site during this season. Oh yeah, I'll do my best to give input from our side.
Latest GFS Ensemble Models
I hope this link works for you. A poster had the link on another site. It does show a west movement.
1028. MrSea
Omg Perfect Storm 2008 right there! (at the top of the chart)

nice cchsweatherman...i was just about to post the same link. although it is an older model run from earlier this afternoon is does pick up on a more western movement in the short term
Just did a Blog update if anyone would like to view.....thanks

Link
Good night all! We will have to wait and see what the next advisory states. For some reason, I still think that anyone from Bermuda to South Florida all the way up the East Coast need to watch Bertha.
hey tampaspin hows it goin
Global Cooling?????
Link
Quoting 1029. DestinJeff:
Link

This shows the west movement fairly well.... wide view with perspective


Based upon that satellite loop, it looks like Bertha has even gone slightly south of due west. It seems like it may have also started to accelerate some to the west.
Here try this!


www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html



It does show a west movement.
1037. MrSea
weatherman504 we've been cooling since 2005, and expected to continue cooling
1033. vabeachurricanes222 12:05 AM EDT on July 09, 2008
hey tampaspin hows it goin


Been a long day....and the RAYS got beat by them dam YANKS.......lol
The COC is still moving NW. What we're seeing on the sat images is flare up of convection on the west side of the storm due to relaxed shear. Because the west side of the storm is building, it appears as though the whole thing is moving south and west. Once it moves into the higher level of shear to the north and west those cloudtops will disappear like they did this morning.
Quoting 1036. MrSea:
weatherman504 we've been cooling since 2005, and expected to continue cooling


imao if the earth feels that we humans are a threat to it it will shake us off like a bunch of fleas.
Quoting 1040. TheWeatherMan504:
Quoting 1036. MrSea:
weatherman504 we've been cooling since 2005, and expected to continue cooling


imao if the earth feels that we humans are a threat to it it will shake us off like a bunch of fleas.


Or a bunch of boulders, its the Earth, no object of its own, no matter the size can withstand the power of her.

1044. MrSea
1039. TampaSpin 4:08 AM GMT on July 09, 2008 Hide this comment.
1033. vabeachurricanes222 12:05 AM EDT on July 09, 2008
hey tampaspin hows it goin

Been a long day....and the RAYS got beat by them dam YANKS.......lol


Yea my man Pettite shut u out!
1038. DestinJeff 12:07 AM EDT on July 09, 2008
1031. TampaSpin 4:04 AM GMT on July 09, 2008

TS what do you make of the west movement since 55W?


As long as Bertha is weak she goes West because of the stronger Lower level stearing if she gets stronger the Upper level stearing will become much weaker and she may not move much.....i just don't see Bertha increasing alot but, who thought she would have got as strong as she did. If you look at my blog i do have Bertha getting back to at least a CAT.2 before nearing Bermuda.
Latest Bertha QuikSCAT
1026. cchsweatherman
is that a loop some of the modles are forecasting?
1044. MrSea 12:12 AM EDT on July 09, 2008

Little secret the RAYS don't hit lefties as well as Right hand pitchers....lol
Obviously articles like that are funded by Big Oil companies and should be jailed for their crimes. Same for people who actually believe junk like that.

Jailed? Lord help us, environmentalists are becoming trial judges now.
i know shes being beaten down...but shes one sorry looking hurricane...poor sat representation, warming cloud tops, still getting sheared with dry air all over the west and south side of her...whos to say she wont keep weakening to a 50-60kt ts over the next 12 hours?

then where do the steering levels take her?
You know we could be seeing a Decupled storm as the lower level goes SW and the upper level continues NW......don't know tell morning.
It looks like Hurricane Bertha may actually be losing it. In the latest frames, the deeper convection has completely waned and the overall appearance has become quite ragged. It looks like a tropical storm now in my opinion. Expect a downgrade at the next advisory.
tampaspin... isaid that earlier....i brought up chris from 2 years ago...looking a bit simalar at the momment...hmmm...we will have to see what happens overnight and tommorrow...
Quoting 1052. TampaSpin:
You know we could be seeing a Decupled storm as the lower level goes SW and the upper level continues NW......don't know tell morning.


You may be onto something. It appears that could be possibly occuring on satellite. Will have to wait for morning to tell the story.
Most of the people that say that cooling is occurring (and NOT since 2005 (or worse, 1998); January 2007 was the warmest month ever recorded globally while the year as a whole set a new land temperature record, only La Nina prevented a global record, the warmth was still incredible though considering the negative factors against it, also notice here that ONLY the tropics cooled over the last year - again due to ENSO) are using faked data, or satellite based measurements, which also measure the cooling in the upper levels of the atmosphere due to greenhouse gasses trapping heat near the surface.

I suggest that you start here to get the facts straight.
Quoting 1056. cchsweatherman:
Quoting 1052. TampaSpin:
You know we could be seeing a Decupled storm as the lower level goes SW and the upper level continues NW......don't know tell morning.


You may be onto something. It appears that could be possibly occuring on satellite. Will have to wait for morning to tell the story.



i wonder if its possible for us to see a naked swirl moving west or wsw tommorrow morning...that would be something, now wouldnt it.
1054. cchsweatherman 12:18 AM EDT on July 09, 2008 It looks like a tropical storm now in my opinion. Expect a downgrade at the next advisory.




But it can't be downgraded, because the NHC said a NW movement towards Bermuda.Lol, Come now first its NW to N towards Bermuda. Then Bertha decides to move West. Now a downgrade at the next advisory. Oh brother!!!!
Evening all :~)

Just stopping in for a few.

Not buying the W motion just yet. Looks like the center reformed south? Step through the last 10 frames.
cchs....that image says it all....shes one ugly hurricane...no way shes still a cane...like i said a few posts ago...a 50-65 kt ts is about right...
cat....very possible for the downgrade...shes looking extremely ill.
ok question.... what if she is a TS now what would happen ? especially with that ridge on top pf her?? can anyone answer me? thanks in advance
1066. JLPR
The models went a little to the west
right now the NHC track is the one farther to east compared to all the models...umm

ewww!
she looks tiny and feeble!
pooor little bertha ;(
Quoting 877. melwerle:
kman - sailboat racing.

this is just good practice on a boat that isn't mine. Going to the nationals in Aug in RI if there isn't a storm coming to my hometown at that point. I sail lightnings (www.lightningclas.org) and last year missed going and this year have been invited. Just wish I could go to the worlds...last year missed going to Greece.


Melwerle,

Many years ago, my mom bought my dad a set of plans for a Lightning Class [boat #2348]. He never got around to building the boat. I just checked and found the plans in my files.

Thanks for bringing back a good memory.

Gordon
1064. watchingnva 12:25 AM EDT on July 09, 2008
cat....very possible for the downgrade...shes looking extremely ill.




Never know about Bertha. She could come back to life tomorrow. I guess we'll just have to wait for the 5am forecast. I'm curious to know what the NHC says.
Welcome aboard MYB, good to have another...looks for press...Carolinian on board :~)
Question how do you post links on here. I'm having a bit of trouble.
Is it possible for a trough to benefit a weak storm and not force it out to sea?
Bertha seems to be speeding towards the west or south west, the center is beginning or appears to be expose, that might explain why she is following so well the stirring currents, because her weakness.
she seems to be dieing out. In the coming frames you will see. Now what cause of that?
ill be quite interested to see what the next models look like...because shes no cane...and shes moving more west than even wnw....
Cat,

Type the words you want to appear for the link like Quick Links

Highlight or select the words, like you were about to copy them. Hit the link button above your Comment Box. Copy the address of the website and paste it in the pop up window. Ok. Post Comment

Help any?
if shes a 45 - 60kt ts in the am when i wake up...and shes still going west... things could possibly get interesting...we will have to see what she wants to do tommorrow.
1078. 7544
she does look like she wants to head further west or even sw i think we gonna see a few surpises with bertha so i have to agree with chs but do you guys think the ull east of fla could not stop her from going north and she might get pulled by it and follow in the same direction the ull is moving ty http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
hey MTB - you're welcome. I'm 12480..."Stuck on Stupid"
hey 7544...i was watching that wv loop ealier...my question is...shes going faster than the ull...if shes catches up to it, will she go to the north or south if it now that shes a much weaker storm???or will she slow down and try to follow it west???
wonder if its possible for us to see a naked swirl moving west or wsw tommorrow morning...that would be something, now wouldnt it.

Seen it many times.....we will see tomorrow.
Quoting 1070. catwomen:
Question how do you post links on here. I'm having a bit of trouble.


Click on the Link button above the comment box and paste the URL into the pop-up box, it should insert the code into the comment box (you can also highlight some words before clicking the button to make it say something else than just "Link"; even images can be linked this way).

Dr. Masters has a blog tutorial here (also on the right side under "recommended links").
1083. 7544
she sure could . watchingnva but looking at the new sterring chart i think mr chs could be right we seen how ull can steer a storm we just have to wait i think in 12 hours we will soon find out mayb e tampa spin could explain it better tampa ?
if she does weaken further(tropical storm) But doesnt quite go *poof* then she would take a more westerly path, right?
1077. watchingnva 12:34 AM EDT on July 09, 2008
if shes a 45 - 60kt ts in the am when i wake up...and shes still going west... things could possibly get interesting...we will have to see what she wants to do tommorrow.


Read my blog i explained why she is moving West.
SJ read my blog and give me your thoughts.
I think old girl is purposly trying not to follow any models and obey what the nhc is saying...lol...

maybe what the bamm models were doing werent so crazy after all...

look at the forecasted point that are on the maps from the 11pm advisory...she is already much more west than the first point...

ill be watching the frames on and off tonight and in the am...to see it the west motion continues...and if so..the nhc will have to shift their track, wont they?
1088. 7544
hi tampa spin question do you think the models are not taking the ull into the pic. or do they they even see it tia cause i dont think it has been there that long so the models may digest it and shift again the next run what you think tia

Link
nice blog tampa...very insightful....now if we have a decoupling storm...then chances are shoe could go poof over the next 24-48 hours as chris did in 06 correct???

and on that note...ill be watching the sats...and popping in in the am...night guys...we will see what bertha has in store next tommorrow...
1088. 7544 12:46 AM EDT on July 09, 2008
hi tampa spin question do you think the models are not taking the ull into the pic. or do they they even see it tia cause i dont think it has been there that long so the models may digest it and shift again the next run what you think tia


Thats hard to say...it is a tiny ULL. It's interesting tho to see the direction it is moving...gotta wonder if Bertha does the same motion...
1089. watchingnva 12:49 AM EDT on July 09, 2008

Thank You....good nite.
Quoting 1083. HurrikanEB:
if she does weaken further(tropical storm) But doesnt quite go *poof* then she would take a more westerly path, right?


cool Tampa's Blog answered that...good job Tampa =)
1093. 7544
thanks tampa i think shes going to hangout below 25 north for a while imo but the dry air is going to get her too
lol i was lurking and then people stopped postin...
1. Huh, that's weird. I was just watching the Weather Channel, and the guy they had on there just put up a graphic over the water vapor loop showing a trough of low pressure draped across the upper-level low and Bermuda on a SW-NE axis. How can there be a trough of low pressure there if there is a surface high pressure there?

2. Also, I'm seeing WNW, not W or NW.

3. Also, the edges of Bertha on the W side are looking frayed. Does that indicate weakening or strengthening or what?
As of 5:44GMT or 1:44EDT 7/9/08, I believe that I started to see a slight darkening towards the center area and that the storm was moving slightly south by southwest. Just my personal observation.
That frayed look like on rainbow can be strengthing or weakning. easiest to tell by looking at visiable but it's dark so checked the shear tendicies. Every direction it is doing it the shear is dropping. I think she's getting stronger & once again square shaped.
1098. 7544
even with that dry air to the west she starts to shape up again shes not given in lol also looks alittle west of the nhc plots for now
1099. 0741
i going bed very soon .i was looking at sat pic with line. it look like Bertha not reaching 25n line yet. she didnot gain north movement so far. we need see if Bertha get near 25n by wed afternoon how far west she get pass 60w
1100. Levi32
The frayed look is definitely strengthening. The outflow is rapidly expanding on the west side, giving the cirrus clouds that classic look. She's holding her own so far, and has been remarkable her entire life in the face of semi-hostile conditions.
From the last hour, it looks like it is also trying to reform an eye.
02LBERTHA.65kts-987mb
d max time
Bertha seems to be breaking up ,yet, at the same time, her center seems to be redeveloping.
based upon rgb image
02L/H/B/C1
EST LOC 56.4W/23.0N
MOVEMENT WNW
EST PRESS 985 MB 70KTS 85KTS
track mark

57.1W/23.1N
57.6W/23.2N
58.1W/23.3N
***STOP***
It looks like the center is getting more intense
im waiting for da 5 o'clock advisory
1108 - indeed! looks like it's getting more organised again
the new forecast track looks the same as the 11 PM and 5 PM Advisory!
1112. Fshhead
000
WTNT42 KNHC 090833
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE CIRCULAR AND ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
DECREASING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS WHICH
SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 27N 68W MOVING WESTWARD AND
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ONLY 55 TO 65 KT AND THEREFORE THE CURRENT
WIND SPEED IS ADJUSTED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHEAR OR ANY STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE SOME LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY
PREDICTION...FORECAST A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST ONLY HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SINCE OTHER
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO NOT APPEAR INHIBITING...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE IT BECOME STRONGER AGAIN.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES
OVERNIGHT...MY ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD OR
305/9. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF BERTHA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 2-3 DAYS.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE TO SLOW
FURTHER AND TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AROUND THAT TIME. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL MISS BERTHA AND LEAVE IT IN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A
NEW AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. A VERY SLOW
MOTION IS INDICATED AROUND DAYS 3-4 DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING AND
BERTHA COULD ALSO MOVE ERRATICALLY AROUND THAT TIME. BY DAY 5 THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE VARIABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 23.5N 56.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 24.2N 57.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 25.4N 59.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 26.8N 60.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 61.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 31.0N 61.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 33.0N 61.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



MY WIND SPEED FORECAST ONLY HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SINCE OTHER
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO NOT APPEAR INHIBITING...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE IT BECOME STRONGER AGAIN
.

1076. StormJunkie 12:33 AM EDT on July 09, 2008 Cat,Type the words you want to appear for the link like Quick Links
Highlight or select the words, like you were about to copy them. Hit the link button above your Comment Box. Copy the address of the website and paste it in the pop up window. Ok.



Thanks Storm! I see it now.
Bertha reminds me of the children's story book. The little engine that could." Looks as though the 5am says Bertha is still holding on. I knew she wasn't going to be downgraded. The forecasters are calling for gradual strengthening. Still trucking NW but still the N turn has not begun yet. Still watching to see what the 11am forecasts.
456 morning
i know you are in the process of doing your wx forecast, but what has happenned to the african disturbance it seemed to have fizzled out.? are the models still hinting of cyclogenesis in the EATL?
latest QuickScat of the african coast
456 is there anything looking suspicious?

Link
1116,

Lately i havnt been finding the time to do any forecast. Life has a way of throwing you curve balls.

Convection with the wave has fizzled out, yes but the wave axis remians and the mid-level turning which is near 11N, much further south than i thought. Not unsual, waves do this all the time. The GFS is showing potential genesis in the EATL on the 12th which corresponds to the wave nearest the coast.

1117. stoormfury 6:36 AM AST on July 09, 2008
latest QuickScat of the african coast
456 is there anything looking suspicious?


I wudnt kno until tonight's quickscat becuz there is natural/normal/climatlogical summer heat low over Africa. If this enters the ocean, then its an indicator of a disturbance, most likely a tropical wave.
thank you 456 have a good day
1121. cg2916
Bertha's a tropical storm now, according to the 094500 UTC dvorak analysis. 53 knots = 61 mph.
Morning all. I'm only stopping in for a minute or two - got to be gone before long.

Bertha sure has tracked west of NW the last few hours. If she insists on paying Bermuda a visit, a possibility that seems a bit more likely this morning, I hope it's as a weak TS and not a revitalized 'cane.
1123. cg2916

BAMS model says Bertha could do a "Jeanne".
cg2916, don't always depend on the CIMSS, like I do (LOL). It's never the same as NHC official forecasts.

By the way, the 5 am Discussion says that the storm is becoming more organized, so there is a possibility that Bertha could strengthen (with an outside chance of a Cat 2/3) within the next 48~72 hours.
1125. guygee
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
311 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 13 2008 - 12Z WED JUL 16 2008

AN INTERESTING SCENARIO IS HINTED AT ON SEVERAL OF THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS JUST OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND HURRICANE BERTHA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BERTHA'S INVOLVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO INDIRECT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT... BUT EVEN SO... THE INTERACTION COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED FORCING AND SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HUGGING THE COASTLINE. A MUCH LESS LIKELY POSSIBILITY WOULD BE A DIRECT INCORPORATION OF BERTHA'S CIRCULATION... WHICH WOULD RESHUFFLE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS ENTIRELY VIA DUMBELLING. FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES...WILL HINT AT SOME CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE... BUT WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL CYCLES TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS OF ANY SUCH COMPLEX INTERACTION. [...]
1120. stoormfury 6:46 AM AST on July 09, 2008
thank you 456 have a good day


Ur welcome and you too.
Post # 1125 one word huh?
good morning everyone
Good morning. Heard you were right CQ about Bertha being a Cat 4 for awhile. Pretty impressive storm then. Mexico is getting hit hard. I have been watching spanish tv, working on my spanish they showed heavy flooding and the affects of strong winds.(snapped trees). If this was US and not western Mex it would be headlines. I plan on going to Costa and Nicaraqua again there are spots where no one speaks English. We only get one vacation a yr and my wife and I work hard trying to make it really special.
If anyone care Dr Steve Lyons said last night the wave currently coming off africa has a low pressure attached to it. Maybe next wk.
Good morning everyone! Bertha doesn't look like a hurricane anymore right now however her outflow is much better and she has a more circular cloud pattern. Environmental conditions appear favorable for the next 48 hours for strengthening.
notice how other natural disasters and tragedies around the world are never brought up to the full extent. like on September 11 2008 there will be some news reports some minor headlines and mourning which is appropriate but on May 2 2009 we won't be thinking of the thousands more that died due to cyclone Nargis. it shows how isolated each country is from one another.
1133. cg2916
1130.
That's right. Steve Lyons is alwayss right when the government isn't forcing him to say something.
barry bonds on the arizona diamondback? now that interesting weather
stuppid stupid stupid question comming.ok here goes.these waves that come off of Africa are they cold fronts comming off? or just summer thunderstorms?..It's hard for me to grasp because I always think of Africa as being so dry and dusty..I'm sure my ignorance is showing...lol
1136: Aubiesgirl, I was wondering the same thing, but have never asked. Back to lurking...
1138. cg2916
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 23:39:34 N Lon : 56:44:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.4mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.2mb

Center Temp : -60.8C Cloud Region Temp : -54.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
1137

So happy to know Im not the only one..lol
Aubie,

Africa is a very large continent, and because of its location every type of climate found on earth can be seen there. The northern part of Africa is occupied by the Sahara Desert. The central part, the part we pay the most attention to, is a combination of equatatorial forest (jungle) and savannah (sort of like the Midwest, only tropical). Further south, and along the eastern coast, one can find a wide variety of weather, climate and vegetation. In South AFrica, weather is often temperate, somewhat like what is found in New England.

So there is a whole world of climate (and weather!) over / on Africa.
1136. On the AEWs (African Easterly Waves) I think weather456 has a pretty thorough explanation on his blog. If you do a search, you should find it easily.
1140
thank you...so the waves that come off are just large groups of T-storms?..
1141 oh ok thank you!
1144. cg2916
Is anyone paying any attention to the area in the Pacific near Mexico. And the tropical wave off of Africa is relatively weak.
1146. cg2916
Does anyone know the current direction of Bertha, I'm as confused as AubieGirl (no offense).
1147. msphar
Bertha is sort of this years new and improved Karen. She still struggles to make progress longitudewise. Doubtful she will cross 60W
1144. This is the area that leftovers has been talking about as causing the flooding and heavy rains over Mexico.

Some of it is remnants of TD5, but I think it is also MJO enhanced activity related to a Twave passing through the area.

NHC has a Tropical Weather Discussion for the EPac linked on their main page if you want a professional analysis.
Thanks Baha, the link was very informative.
I'm gone. Have a good day, everyone!
1151. cg2916
I need the current direction of Bertha.
1152. cg2916
Now.
Quoting 1150. cg2916:
I need the current direction of Bertha.


officially it's still NW
1154. msphar
she is hooking nw east of Bermuda
1155. cg2916
Thanks.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION



EAST/CENTRAL
PRIOR TO THE MAIN HT FALLS COMING INTO WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
HI RES ECMWF/CMC AND UKMET INDICANT A SIG MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF LOWER MID ATLC COAST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF NC. THIS SMALL SCALE COASTAL LOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME HVY COASTAL RAINS BEFORE BEING PICKED UP AND MOVING NWD UP
THE OFFSHORE ERN SEABOARD. COASTAL AREAS FROM FL NWD THRU SRN NEW
ENG WILL EXPERIENCE SWELL FROM OFF HURCN BERTHA THIS PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENG TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MON AND TUES WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY.
Post 1130

GFS I looked at yesterday was hinting at development off the coast of Africa next week. Definitely something to keep an eye on. As we seen with Bertha the CV season is early but fully open and ready to go. Hopefully we'll see a lot of re curving storms with them forming so far out there. Troughs are still relatively strong.
The ADT says the center is in a warmer spot in the middle of the CDO...makes me wonder if that eye might come back later today.

Click on image to view original size in a new window



one thing you have to take note is that she has slow way down
1161. cg2916
Quoting 1157. extreme236:
The ADT says the center is in a warmer spot in the middle of the CDO...makes me wonder if that eye might come back later today.


Could be. Look at this, the clouds are sinking in:
Your right TAZ. Our local MET said last night she's going to be moving painfully slow over the next couple of days.
1163. cg2916
1160.
Right.
Morning SW.
First off storm w Thank you for breaking down all of the acronyms!!!!
Good morning everyone...

Nice write-up, as always Storm!
1159.

Is that an eye open on the south side? Because that matches up with about where the center is on ADT
Quoting 1167. extreme236:
1159.

Is that an eye open on the south side? Because that matches up with about where the center is on ADT


Yes, but that image is from 5:39 AM this morning.
Morning everyone i did a red eye last nite......lol
1174. bethie
Thanks for the update StormW. I appreciate your informative forecasts & posts.

I'm still lurking and learning...
I did a blog update last nite late if anyone would like to review.....TampaSpin's Blog
1176. NEwxguy
Thanks,Storm,real nice write up.I'm always fascinated how these storms can linger in the vicinity,as if waiting for the proper train to jump on and ride on out.
1176. NEwxguy 8:44 AM EDT on July 09, 2008

You picked up a game last night.....
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.6N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.8N LONM12 = 55.2W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 53.5W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN



It looks like its headed more wnw now...anyone else agree? And no one really thinks she could do a loop de loop right?
1180. NEwxguy
Tampa,I'm having a personality conflict,I find myself rooting for the yankees,but its very painful doing that.We're not going to let you get too comfortable.
1183. NEwxguy
Going to get some wobbling,especially if that front coming of New England and mid atlantic doesn't pick her up.
So... Is Bertha going to be a wanderer now? I wonder if she'll make more active Hurricane hours than we had total for last season?
1185. Kibkaos
There is definitely a lot of activity coming off the coast of Africa. Anybody care to comment on the possibilites of Tropical Development. Are there any models that mention it?
Quoting 1184. Kibkaos:
There is definitely a lot of activity coming off the coast of Africa. Anybody care to comment on the possibilites of Tropical Development. Are there any models that mention it?


Were? Theres nothing on this view.
1185

1157. TheCaneWhisperer 12:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Post 1130

GFS I looked at yesterday was hinting at development off the coast of Africa next week. Definitely something to keep an eye on. As we seen with Bertha the CV season is early but fully open and ready to go. Hopefully we'll see a lot of re curving storms with them forming so far out there. Troughs are still relatively strong.
Quoting 1179. NEwxguy:
Tampa,I'm having a personality conflict,I find myself rooting for the yankees,but its very painful doing that.We're not going to let you get too comfortable.


Tell me you did not say that.......You can't be a true Sox if you ever root for those dam Yanks.......ROFLMAO
1181.

Looks like the eye is trying to poke out again.
Post 1184

Possibly, LOL. Good observation
Yep, Looks clear to me. Thank god! I dont want to have to deal with the blog when theres another CV storm that has potential to hit the US.

1184. Uhm well thats gonna be hard when we had these monsters to deal with last year. lol

Dean:


Felix:
Bertha Might Re-Strengthen Today to a High Cat 1 ....
Whoa!
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



so much for having a clear idea of what she's gonna do...

good morning everyone
1194.

Here Goes Bertha and Her Second Rapid Intesification Process Lol ...


Maybe a high Cat 1 today ....
looks like they initialized models at hurricane meaning it will remain a hurricane at the 11 AM advisory

does anyone think that there could be another burst of RI today or is it too cool of water temps
Another eye forming...

1199. guygee
Re: 1156. nrtiwlnvragn 12:02 PM GMT on July 09, 2008

Very unusual for HPC to issue a mid-morning update to their Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion. Notice the mention of the closed Mid-Atlantic coastal low. Recent GFS runs and GFS ensembles have been hinting at this idea for several runs. Whether or not this feature develops could have an effect on the eventual track of Bertha and the strength of the storm as it transitions to extratropical.
Quoting 1196. Thundercloud01221991:
looks like they initialized models at hurricane meaning it will remain a hurricane at the 11 AM advisory

does anyone think that there could be another burst of RI today or is it too cool of water temps


Hmm not expected...but Bertha's last RI wasnt expected either so maybe.
1201. NEwxguy
1188. TampaSpin 1:02 PM GMT on July 09, 2008
Quoting 1179. NEwxguy:
Tampa,I'm having a personality conflict,I find myself rooting for the yankees,but its very painful doing that.We're not going to let you get too comfortable.


Tell me you did not say that.......You can't be a true Sox if you ever root for those dam Yanks.......ROFLMAO

Found myself doing that last night,but can't do that two nights in a row,would put me in a deep depression.
New Blog Up...
Water temps are probably even warmer than they were when her last RI was. But wind shear would have to remain low and it should, but the NHC's thinking on wind shear is all over the place lol
Bertha is about to show her colors again.Her eye will be back shortly.
new blog up.