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Hurricane Beatriz slams into Mexico; heavy rains, tornadoes hit the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on June 21, 2011

Hurricane Beatriz plowed into the Pacific coast of Mexico near La Fortuna this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, bringing very heavy rains and mudslides to a 200-mile stretch of coast. Acapulco reported 5.20" of rain yesterday, and one injury due to a falling free. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards 25 miles from the center of Beatriz, and these winds are likely to cause moderate damage along a 200-mile stretch of the Mexican coast today as the storm moves northwestwards towards Cabo Corrientes. However, the primary threat from the storm will be heavy rain, and the expected rains of 6 - 12" are likely to cause very dangerous flooding and mudslides today and Wednesday morning. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz weakened significantly over the past few hours, once the eye moved over land. The mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico will continue to tear up the storm today, and Beatriz will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it moves back out to sea on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Beatriz over the Pacific coast of Mexico taken at 9:30am EDT June 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tornadoes, heavy rain slam the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms rumbled through a wide section of the Midwest yesterday, generating numerous tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. The storm also brought heavy snow to the mountains of Colorado above 9,500 feet, an unusual occurrence for so late in June. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 43 preliminary tornado reports yesterday in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and North Dakota. The tornadoes mostly avoided populated areas, and only sporadic damage was reported. Perhaps the most significant impact of the storm was the large area of 1 - 4 inches of rain it dropped on Nebraska and South Dakota. This rain will run off into the Missouri River, further aggravating the flooding that has breached two levees and overtopped two other levees in the past week. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for the rains and severe weather will bring additional heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches over portions of the Missouri River watershed today, and will touch off a new round of severe weather today and Wednesday as the storm progresses slowly eastwards. However, the Storm Prediction Center is issuing only their "Slight Risk" forecast for severe weather for both days.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of a supercell thunderstorm with a classic hook echo. The storm spawned a tornado that hit Elm Creek, Nebraska yesterday. The tornado ripped the roofs off of several houses and tore down power lines.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters
Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris
Rainbow Over Mt. Sopris

Tornado Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Bring IT ON, keeper.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


warfighter nogaps 180 hrs 18z run


If that can scoot a little more to the right, a lot of people will be happy.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Link

Finally, it's raining dogs and cats and DEER!


Wow thats pretty sick, don't you think?
Look at how large this Tornado warning is associated with the line on the radar PcolaDan posted.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/
Link
Velocity's on radar are pretty scary.
505. MTWX
Quoting Torgen:


I have a spot on the side of the house where the roof and the garage's roof make a funnel. I had to had rocks the size of throw pillows at the "impact point" to keep from the stream digging a cavern in the yard during rainy season. The hard part would be dredging the roof shingle "gravel" out of the bottom of the barrel.

A neighbor told me Sam's Club had rain barrels for $40, which is less than half the price I saw last year, but no idea how big they are.

I have 2 45 gal barrels that I bought from Lowes for about 40 a piece. They hook up directly to your downspouts, complete with overflow control. As for the "shingle gravel" the lids are removable and you just hose them out. Also have a spigot to hook a garden hose to.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Falls Creek in Victoria is hit by a blizzard.

Welcome to snowy Orange


snow falling in the main street of Orange


Railway line at Nashdale near Orange covered in snow


Where did my ball go???


Very pretty!
There is some low level vorticity associated with the recent blowup of convection to the west of the BOC, but it is overland right now. Maybe this will be the start of something. Still waiting to see what is up with the large area of LLC left over from Beatriz.
Quoting alfabob:

Not at all, went from being 2x the monthly average since January to about 1/4 of the average this month (even though this is suppose to be the month with the max rainfall amount). Maybe this storm will fix that.


Well, it might not rain that hard for that long, but if I am correct, you could pick up more than an inch in 30 minutes to an hour with moisture as high as it is.

Here in Florida, 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates are common. During the wet season when we get tropical waves combining with sea breeze convergence, the extremely moist air can produce 5 inch per hour rain rates or more. But these periods of extreme rainfall are usually short lived because we usually don't have the dynamics in the air to support storms hanging around very long so we end up with in actuality, a 15 to 30 minute down pour dumping rain in the 1 to 3 inch range.

We had 15 inches in 3 hours a few years back, that was scary, thankfully drainage is good and we are close to the coast here in the Tampa Bay area so it never flooded the house, but still, that was crazy. I have seen other stuff like that before but that is rare even here.
Second day in a row we have seen wording like this. Hopefully the line weakens before reaching Chicago.

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING
WINDS OF LOCALLY 80 TO 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WATERMAN TO HINCKLEY TO NEWARK TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
Quoting caneswatch:


If that can scoot a little more to the right, a lot of people will be happy.


But if it were to scoot more to the left, a lot more people would be happy.
Quoting alfabob:

Could that make it into the BOC and become something for TX?
Quoting IceCoast:
Second day in a row we have seen wording like this. Hopefully the line weakens before reaching Chicago.

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING
WINDS OF LOCALLY 80 TO 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WATERMAN TO HINCKLEY TO NEWARK TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.


Ouch, defintely an area to watch, TY!
Quoting alfabob:
There is some low level vorticity associated with the recent blowup of convection to the west of the BOC, but it is overland right now. Maybe this will be the start of something. Still waiting to see what is up with the large area of LLC left over from Beatriz.


Beatriz is nearing her death, there will be no re-intensification of the system. I'll believe there will be when we start seeing unicorns and pigs start flying.
All the models on board?.Interesting....
Quoting druseljic:


Wow thats pretty sick, don't you think?
If you mean in poor taste, NO. Its in the news.
Quoting washingtonian115:
All the models on board?.Interesting....


Not all the models, just the GFS, CMC, and NGP.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Falls Creek in Victoria is hit by a blizzard.

Welcome to snowy Orange


snow falling in the main street of Orange


Railway line at Nashdale near Orange covered in snow


Where did my ball go???
july is the half way point of winter for you guys down under is it not aussie
518. MTWX
Quoting IceCoast:
Second day in a row we have seen wording like this. Hopefully the line weakens before reaching Chicago.

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING
WINDS OF LOCALLY 80 TO 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WATERMAN TO HINCKLEY TO NEWARK TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

Most of the area to the SW of Chicago is under a tornado warning!Link
Quoting FrankZapper:
If you mean in poor taste, NO. Its in the news.


Wow, dead animals repeatedly shown on power lines...yeah, I guess your right that is news.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, it might not rain that hard for that long, but if I am correct, you could pick up more than an inch in 30 minutes to an hour with moisture as high as it is.

Here in Florida, 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates are common. In cores of strong thunderstorms can produce 5 inch per hour rain rates or more. But these periods of extreme rainfall are usually short lived so we end up with in actuality, a 15 to 30 minute down pour dumping rain in the 1 to 3 inch range.

We had 15 inches in 3 hours a few years back, that was scary, thankfully drainage is good and we are close to the water so it never flooded the house, but still, that was crazy. I have seen other stuff like that before but that is rare even here.

Yea it might not even reach me, but who knows; I've had strong lines of severe weather coming and then a little gap forms making everyone else get hit but my area. Definitely would have major flooding up here if there was rainfall like Florida usually has, I think the most we got from a storm this year is 2-3 inches and even then the streets begin to backup with water. Maximum monthly average around this area (peak of the year) is only around 3.16 inches.
This is a good page to use when trying to look at a list of Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado warnings in effect.

Link
Worst part of the severe line SW of Chicago should go to the North and West of Downtown. Cantore is live in Chicago giving updates on TWC, so we should get a good view of how bad it gets there!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not all the models, just the GFS, CMC, and NGP.
Mmmm well at least we got some model support.But one thing to note is that the GOM is above average and if upper level conditions previel than who knows what could happen...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a good page to use when trying to look at a list of Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado warnings in effect.

Link


Yep, one of my permanent tabs.
525. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a good page to use when trying to look at a list of Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado warnings in effect.

Link

Or this one. Just click on the warning you want to view one the bottom of the screen and it will bring up all active warnings.Link
* AT 815 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HAMPSHIRE TO AURORA TO
SHOREWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THE GREATET CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA.


Well, hope this doesn't actually pan out.
The storm in the midwest is trying to grab at Beatriz a bit. Pulled some midlevel something toward the gulf, moisture maybe on the way to some drought areas.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Could that make it into the BOC and become something for TX?

To early to really say, I've been watching the left-overs of Beatriz spin off weak circulations towards the BOC since yesterday (mostly from the adjacent monsoon inflow being to strong). Still not really sure what is going on with it though; a cold pocket of air did run into it right before it collapsed, so its difficult to predict how it will transform over the next day or two. Maybe Beatriz will acquire unicorns and flying pigs over the next few hours, otherwise the area near the BOC could have a very slight chance of becoming what the models are sensing (but if Beatriz redevelops then I would say a 0% chance).
Quoting Chucktown:


You can't tell what is going to happen with the trough and ridge pattern when a storm approaches the coast. As unscientific as it sounds (and I'm a met), you have a 50/50 chance of getting hit, either you do or you don't. Just be prepared. I don't care where the Bermuda High is now or what the NAO is doing or what the pattern has been up to this point, you don't know what the synoptic setup will be in August and September. Its always timing.


I agree to a point, Chucktown...however historical climatology has shown pretty much neutral years per se, come up with more landfalls in the U.S...and going from a strong La Nina, to neutral, and possibly neutral with a warm bias, has to have some affect on the steering pattern for this season.
Quoting alfabob:

Yea it might not even reach me, but who knows; I've had strong lines of severe weather coming and then a little gap forms making everyone else get hit but my area. Definitely would have major flooding up here if there was rainfall like Florida usually has, I think the most we got from a storm this year is 2-3 inches and even then the streets begin to backup with water. Maximum monthly average around this area (peak of the year) is only around 3.16 inches.


Yeah its amazing how that kind of rain up there makes everything beautiful and green, but the dry season here is 2.5 to 3.5 inches a month. It all depends on how the climate is adjusted to, type of foliage as well as soil. The wet season we average 7 to 10 inches a month. sometimes less during some years years, and sometimes it can be way more during others. I have seen us get 15 to 20 inches in August and September several times before since Ive lived here. But then there's last year, which was very dry, and we only had 4 to 5 inches both months, which was considered bad for us. I have seen us get a foot of rain sometimes in June, and years like this, we have only had 1 inch so far. The good news is, climate forecasts are calling for lots of rain the rest of the rain season.

The way it works in the subtropics of Florida. We either get slammed for a while with rain, or we get real dry for a while. Also, most of the days it rains, we also get lots of sun, some of our heaviest rain days we manage to squeeze out several hours of sun, hence why they call us the sunshine state. Being a weather freak and an athletic/outdoorsman, its the best Climate in the U.S. to me.
531. MTWX
AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MAPLE PARK TO NORTH AURORA TO
OSWEGO TO COAL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WEST CHICAGO...WARRENVILLE...ST. CHARLES AND SHOREWOOD AROUND 820
PM CDT.
WINFIELD AND WAYNE AROUND 825 PM CDT.
GILBERTS...WOODRIDGE...WHEATON AND ROMEOVILLE AROUND 830 PM CDT.
DARIEN...YORK CENTER...WESTMONT AND STREAMWOOD AROUND 835 PM CDT.
VILLA PARK AROUND 840 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS
INCLUDE PINGREE GROVE...SOUTH ELGIN...CRYSTAL LAWNS...GLENBARD
SOUTH...CREST HILL...PRESTON HEIGHTS...GLENDALE HEIGHTS...FAIRMONT...
BLOOMINGDALE AND WILLOWBROOK.
Maybe since everyone stop commenting that's a sign not to do that again.Back to weather anyone?
Wrigley Field webcam with audio. So dark outside there!
Link
rainymood.com

Interesting site. You can listen listen to rain falling while browsing or listening to a song. It's quite enjoyable with a few songs.
Quoting alfabob:

To early to really say, I've been watching the left-overs of Beatriz spin off weak circulations towards the BOC since yesterday (mostly from the adjacent monsoon inflow being to strong). Still not really sure what is going on with it though; a cold pocket of air did run into it right before it collapsed, so its difficult to predict how it will transform over the next day or two. Maybe Beatriz will acquire unicorns and flying pigs over the next few hours, otherwise the area near the BOC could have a very slight chance of becoming what the models are sensing (but if Beatriz redevelops then I would say a 0% chance).

Beatriz is dead, I pulled her life support plug out last night before going to bed.
Quoting caneswatch:
rainymood.com

Interesting site. You can listen listen to rain falling while browsing or listening to a song. It's quite enjoyable with a few songs.

I might bookmark that for later, still getting over 15in of rain last week here.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah its amazing how that kind of rain up there makes everything beautiful and green, but the dry season here is 2.5 to 3.5 inches a month. It all depends on how the climate is adjusted to, type of foliage as well as soil. The wet season we average 8 to 10 inches. sometimes less during some years years, and sometimes it can be way more during others. I have seen us get 15 to 20 inches in August and September several times before since Ive lived here. But then there's last year, which was very dry, and we only had 4 to 5 inches both months, which was considered bad for us.

The way it works in the subtropics of Florida. We either get slammed for a while with rain, or we get real dry for a while.

That amount would be crazy up here, I think drought has just been floating around a little bit of everywhere over the past few years. I remember last year there were two periods (month maybe month and a half long) where there was no rain what so ever. Definitely not as bad as say Texas or Florida due to the heat. I'm kind of wondering how rain patterns will be affected up here in the future though, it seems that the drought over the southern states is due to a weakening polar air mass (jet stream not coming down far enough); it won't be easy to get rainfall from tropical activity all the way up here if the usual patterns stop.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe since everyone stop commenting that's a sign not to do that again.Back to weather anyone?
Lol as soon as I made that comment people got back on.Lls.
Quoting caneswatch:
rainymood.com

Interesting site. You can listen listen to rain falling while browsing or listening to a song. It's quite enjoyable with a few songs.

Thanks listening to it with Sofaspace(ambient) right now!
Quoting MTWX:

Or this one. Just click on the warning you want to view one the bottom of the screen and it will bring up all active warnings.Link
This one isn't to shabby either
GO! TEXAS. Much needed rain.. You guys deserve it!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:

I might bookmark that for later, still getting over 15in of rain last week here.


Must be bad out there.

But when you do get the chance, it's cool, very soothing.
Quoting druseljic:


No problem, glad you're enjoying it!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Beatriz is dead, I pulled her life support plug out last night before going to bed.

Ha yea most likely dead, if you play the tropopause potential heat imagery there is a little ball of cool air flying down the east coast. Traveled from the tip of those Alaskan islands down to Beatriz in around 60 hours, so I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't come back after something like that. The last update was yesterday at 0z, but XTRAPing it along with the timing of things hints that it is probably the cause. Link

546. j2008
EP, 02, 2011062200, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1066W, 25, 1002, DB, Bye Bye Beatriz, its been good knowing you.
Winds at 25 knots and pressure at 1002, Id say its pretty much gone.
Quoting druseljic:
GO! TEXAS. Much needed rain.. You guys deserve it!!!
Go D.C!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


warfighter nogaps 180 hrs 18z run
wow!! look at the big high move to the west!!
Quoting druseljic:
GO! TEXAS. Much needed rain.. You guys deserve it!!!


Thanks for all the rain wishes. Much appreciated. :)
Quoting alfabob:
There is some low level vorticity associated with the recent blowup of convection to the west of the BOC, but it is overland right now. Maybe this will be the start of something. Still waiting to see what is up with the large area of LLC left over from Beatriz.
This should help Mexico's drought.
Quoting washingtonian115:
All the models on board?.Interesting....


Yes, but remember, they could just as easily flip back in the other direction.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks for all the rain wishes. Much appreciated. :)
Once again my area is under a floodwatch.We just finished having a thunderstorm just now.We don't need no more rain.
Quoting Skyepony:
The storm in the midwest is trying to grab at Beatriz a bit. Pulled some midlevel something toward the gulf, moisture maybe on the way to some drought areas.
same storm has been pulling at 02E since last night strong system and yes something is coming what remains to be seen sky
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but remember, they could just as easily flip back in the other direction.
Yeah just like 94L.One minute they were developing the next minute they dropped it faster then you can say stop.
Could you possibly see an Alex/Dolly type of situation within the next week and into the first week of July?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


warfighter nogaps 180 hrs 18z run


What seems to be pulling the storm north? I see a high, upper/lower? north of it. Just wondering because the ECMWF showed a big low pressure system in the western GOM for one run. Since then it shows a ridge building bk over the gulf keeping everything south like last year. Just trying to learn how to read the models. I'm assuming the NOGAPS sees a break in the ridge somewhere on that run?
Tropical Depression Beatriz?

Quoting troy1993:
Could you possibly see an Alex/Dolly type of situation within the next week and into the first week of July?


I could, yes. Well not as intense.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks for all the rain wishes. Much appreciated. :)


Not a problem, you folks are in my meditations. Looks like the models might be favoring some relief for you folks in the long run. Take care!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Once again my area is under a floodwatch.We just finished having a thunderstorm just now.We don't need no more rain.
this is my forecast

WOCN11 CWTO 212009
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada at 4:09 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011.

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

..Significant rainfall amounts possible beginning tonight..

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a warm front
will move through portions of Southern Ontario tonight and Wednesday.
The heaviest precipitation is expected to begin in Southwestern
Ontario this evening and move northeastward to reach southcentral
Ontario overnight. Current indications suggest that local amounts of
20 to 40 millimetres of rain are likely over the 6 to 9 hour time
period that it takes for the area of precipitation to move through.
There is a possibility that some locales may receive in excess of 50
millimetres especially if several thunderstorms pass the same area.
As this area of precipitation continues to move towards Eastern
Ontario, amounts should be less significant.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely beginning Wednesday
afternoon giving further amounts.

Environment Canada will closely monitor the situation and issue the
appropriate warnings should the need arise.

END/OSPC



------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------



ACCN10 CWTO 212007
Forecast of thunderstorm potential for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada at 4:07 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011.
The next statement will be issued at 4.00 AM Wednesday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Forecast of thunderstorm potential.

Tonight..Thunderstorms associated with a warm front over
Southwestern Ontario will develop in the evening and increase
In intensity through the night. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing in the evening and continuing overnight
mainly due to torrential downpours. Chance of non severe
thunderstorms near Lake Superior.

Wednesday..A few thunderstorms over Southern Ontario and chance of
thunderstorms from Lake Superior toward the Quebec border. There is a
slight risk that some of the storms in southwestern and southcentral
Ontario could be severe due to torrential downpours, damaging winds
and large hail.

Thursday..Chance of non severe thunderstorms over Southern Ontario
and the Nickel Belt.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
A thunderstorm is defined as severe if it produces one or more of the
following:

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres in diameter or greater.
- rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres or greater in one hour or less.
- a tornado.

Note: this forecast is issued twice daily from May 1 to September 30.

END/OSPC

now for extreme sw ontario

Warnings
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County
9:56 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County continued

Several clusters of intense thunderstorms with frequent lightning and very heavy downpours are moving from south to north across the regions. Heavy downpours with 50 mm of rain in an hour possible with these storms as well as wind gusts to 90 km/h. Damaging hail is possible with these storms but is a less likely.

Severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring in the area. These storms may produce large hail, damaging winds or heavy rainfall. Remember that some severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes.

Monitor weather conditions and take immediate safety precautions if threatening weather approaches.

.


Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park
9:56 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park continued

Several clusters of intense thunderstorms with frequent lightning and very heavy downpours are moving from south to north across the regions. Heavy downpours with 50 mm of rain in an hour possible with these storms as well as wind gusts to 90 km/h. Damaging hail is possible with these storms but is a less likely.

Severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring in the area. These storms may produce large hail, damaging winds or heavy rainfall. Remember that some severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes.

Monitor weather conditions and take immediate safety precautions if threatening weather approaches.

.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Once again my area is under a floodwatch.We just finished having a thunderstorm just now.We don't need no more rain.


Oh no. Hope you don't get any more rain! It seems that way around here a lot. Feast or famine. Drought or flood.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah just like 94L.One minute they were developing the next minute they dropped it faster then you can say stop.


I find today's solution [within the models] hard to swallow after they were so hellbent on downplaying the system over the last three days. But we shall see.
Some storm reports of the Illinois storms. Impressive stuff.

0128 75 Mph WHEATON DUPAGE IL 4186 8811
ROOSELVELT AND COUNTY FARM RD. TRANSFORMERS EXPLODING

0130 66 Mph ROMEOVILLE WILL IL 4165 8809
LOT AWOS MEASUREMENT.

0130 71 Mph 5 W BOLINGBROOK WILL IL

0130 70 Mph NAPERVILLE DUPAGE IL 4176 8815
SMALL TREE LIMB DAMAGE. (LOT)

0141 62 Mph WHEATON DUPAGE IL 4186 8811
DUPAGE COUNTY EOC

0141 75 Mph ELMHURST DUPAGE IL 4190 8794
TREES FALLING OVER IN WIELDER PARK AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS LIGHTNING FLASHES
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this is my forecast

WOCN11 CWTO 212009
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada at 4:09 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011.

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

..Significant rainfall amounts possible beginning tonight..

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a warm front
will move through portions of Southern Ontario tonight and Wednesday.
The heaviest precipitation is expected to begin in Southwestern
Ontario this evening and move northeastward to reach southcentral
Ontario overnight. Current indications suggest that local amounts of
20 to 40 millimetres of rain are likely over the 6 to 9 hour time
period that it takes for the area of precipitation to move through.
There is a possibility that some locales may receive in excess of 50
millimetres especially if several thunderstorms pass the same area.
As this area of precipitation continues to move towards Eastern
Ontario, amounts should be less significant.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely beginning Wednesday
afternoon giving further amounts.

Environment Canada will closely monitor the situation and issue the
appropriate warnings should the need arise.

END/OSPC



------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------



ACCN10 CWTO 212007
Forecast of thunderstorm potential for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada at 4:07 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011.
The next statement will be issued at 4.00 AM Wednesday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Forecast of thunderstorm potential.

Tonight..Thunderstorms associated with a warm front over
Southwestern Ontario will develop in the evening and increase
In intensity through the night. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing in the evening and continuing overnight
mainly due to torrential downpours. Chance of non severe
thunderstorms near Lake Superior.

Wednesday..A few thunderstorms over Southern Ontario and chance of
thunderstorms from Lake Superior toward the Quebec border. There is a
slight risk that some of the storms in southwestern and southcentral
Ontario could be severe due to torrential downpours, damaging winds
and large hail.

Thursday..Chance of non severe thunderstorms over Southern Ontario
and the Nickel Belt.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
A thunderstorm is defined as severe if it produces one or more of the
following:

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres in diameter or greater.
- rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres or greater in one hour or less.
- a tornado.

Note: this forecast is issued twice daily from May 1 to September 30.

END/OSPC

now for extreme sw ontario

Warnings
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County
9:56 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County continued

Several clusters of intense thunderstorms with frequent lightning and very heavy downpours are moving from south to north across the regions. Heavy downpours with 50 mm of rain in an hour possible with these storms as well as wind gusts to 90 km/h. Damaging hail is possible with these storms but is a less likely.

Severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring in the area. These storms may produce large hail, damaging winds or heavy rainfall. Remember that some severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes.

Monitor weather conditions and take immediate safety precautions if threatening weather approaches.

.


Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park
9:56 PM EDT Tuesday 21 June 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park continued

Several clusters of intense thunderstorms with frequent lightning and very heavy downpours are moving from south to north across the regions. Heavy downpours with 50 mm of rain in an hour possible with these storms as well as wind gusts to 90 km/h. Damaging hail is possible with these storms but is a less likely.

Severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring in the area. These storms may produce large hail, damaging winds or heavy rainfall. Remember that some severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes.

Monitor weather conditions and take immediate safety precautions if threatening weather approaches.

.

All this rain needs to be down south.Where they need it...I've been waking up to cloudy and rainy mornings since Saturday.I want to wake up to sunshine one of these days...
water getting very warm very fast!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
All this rain needs to be down south.Where they need it...I've been waking up to cloudy and rainy mornings since Saturday.I want to wake up to sunshine one of these days...


We here in Pensacola would welcome that, a little bit of sharing the wealth if you will...
567. DDR
There maybe some flooding/landslips around the island by tomorrow morning.
Thank You Mother Nature 1.88" of rain in the last hour and half and still counting
Quoting caneswatch:


Must be bad out there.

But when you do get the chance, it's cool, very soothing.





bobicus breckicus is on everyone
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What seems to be pulling the storm north? I see a high, upper/lower? north of it. Just wondering because the ECMWF showed a big low pressure system in the western GOM for one run. Since then it shows a ridge building bk over the gulf keeping everything south like last year. Just trying to learn how to read the models. I'm assuming the NOGAPS sees a break in the ridge somewhere on that run?
at the moment it may mean nothing could be a ghost for all we know what we need to see is if it gets depicted on the 00z coming 06z 12z in the morning 18z tomorrow evening then we may have something to set our sights on
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
water getting very warm very fast!!


Agreed, will be intersting to see what it brings...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
at the moment it may mean nothing could be a ghost for all we know what we need to see is if it gets depicted on the 00z coming 06z 12z in the morning 18z tomorrow evening then we may have something to set our sights on


Yeah. That's true. I finally learned a little about reading the upper level model on the GFS from Levi. Lol. I'll catch on some day. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh no. Hope you don't get any more rain! It seems that way around here a lot. Feast or famine. Drought or flood.
Hopefully this pattern will break.And you all will get your rain.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I find today's solution [within the models] hard to swallow after they were so hellbent on downplaying the system over the last three days. But we shall see.
I'm not so hyped on the system developing really until i see an area of interest.Now if conditions at that time preveil then we may have something on our hands..
Quoting druseljic:


We here in Pensacola would welcome that, a little bit of sharing the wealth if you will...
I wish I could.I tried using my fairy dust to break the pattern but it's not working.I visited Florida last week and it seemed that some of those palm trees were on their last leg.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
water getting very warm very fast!!


yes just a tad

576. 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Depression Beatriz?


Probably 35 or 40 knts. Oh well that was fun to track.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
water getting very warm very fast!!


Had to dig around to find a working (somewhat) buoy. But yes it's heating right up out there.

Conditions at RLOT2 as of
(8:00 pm CDT on 06/21/2011)
0100 GMT on 06/22/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.0 kts
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.2 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
NOS Water Level Observation Network Water Level
Not sure if I will get rain tonight but it is nice seeing rain on any radar in Texas, I will be happy whatever i receive and I am looking forward to tropical rains sometime soon hopefully because this state needs it. Have a great evening.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yes just a tad

Blah!.Nasty water tempetures in the gulf.
580. beell
Quoting alfabob:

Ha yea most likely dead, if you play the tropopause potential heat imagery there is a little ball of cool air flying down the east coast. Traveled from the tip of those Alaskan islands down to Beatriz in around 60 hours, so I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't come back after something like that. The last update was yesterday at 0z, but XTRAPing it along with the timing of things hints that it is probably the cause. Link



That's the cooler temperatures aloft associated with the unseasonably strong trough that just moved across the Plains and into the Midwest.

The circle of equal latitude near the 'cool ball' is at or about 40N

I don't think it had much influence on Beatriz's life.
Most of the pre-season forecasts for Hurricane Season 2011 were made before models came on board for an active Cape Verde season. The main reason they say this season will be less active than last season is because of Sea Surface temperatures. But I am wondering, if we have an active Cape Verde season, will that make up for the SST difference this year vs. last?
Quoting 1344:

Probably 35 or 40 knts. Oh well that was fun to track.


in the art of tracking storms 02e could be refer too as a epac quickie i knew it was done as it neared landfall after mmidnight last night not a good handle on that one always expect the unexpected
Quoting weatherh98:
bobicus breckicus is on everyone

What did you say??????

Quoting washingtonian115:
Blah!.Nasty water tempetures in the gulf.


Yes, and they are expected to get quite a bit warmer as we head into July.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Most of the pre-season forecasts for Hurricane Season 2011 were made before models came on board for an active Cape Verde season. The main reason they say this season will be less active than last season is because of Sea Surface temperatures. But I am wondering, if we have an active Cape Verde season, will that make up for the SST difference this year vs. last?

Last year was a very active CV season, only a few W ATL systems. Most came outa the CV's.
Did Beatriz eye ever cross or touch the Mexican mainland? I thought it did,but keep reading articles saying very close approach. On video I saw, it looked like it did and went inland for a bit.
Quoting AussieStorm:







Geez, looks like when Irene hit here in '99.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Did Beatriz eye ever cross or touch the Mexican mainland? I thought it did,but keep reading articles saying very close approach. On video I saw, it looked like it did and went inland for a bit.

Going by this, I would say the eye did touch land.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, and they are expected to get quite a bit warmer as we head into July.

(sticks tounge out).I've seen over the years how fast some sytems can spin up or stregthen over the gulf.And this year reminds me of one of those years..
...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 21
Location: 19.0°N 107.0°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
591. 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Most of the pre-season forecasts for Hurricane Season 2011 were made before models came on board for an active Cape Verde season. The main reason they say this season will be less active than last season is because of Sea Surface temperatures. But I am wondering, if we have an active Cape Verde season, will that make up for the SST difference this year vs. last?

No, since last year had an active CV season. Another difference is no La Nina in 2011.
Quoting caneswatch:


Geez, looks like when Irene hit here in '99.

Silly thing is, the people that get flooded, instead of moving to higher ground, they rebuild then get flooded again. I would say maybe 3 or 4 times in the last 2 years those places have been flooded.
Quoting druseljic:
GO! TEXAS. Much needed rain.. You guys deserve it!!!


Rain has not made it's way to south texas. rain chances in houston have just decreased.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 21
Location: 19.0°N 107.0°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb



RIP 02E/B/XX
595. 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 21
Location: 19.0°N 107.0°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb


Now, that was unexpected.
Good Evening. Nice to see some rain headed into Texas and also cooling off parts of the Northern Gulf States.........The Gulf has been bone dry for the past few weeks.
Quoting 1344:

No, since last year had an active CV season. Another difference is no La Nina in 2011.


Does that signify that the upper level winds will not be as strong as they were then? Which could lead to more development over the Atlantic or am I misreading this?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Silly thing is, the people that get flooded, instead of moving to higher ground, they rebuild then get flooded again. I would say maybe 3 or 4 times in the last 2 years those places have been flooded.


It's sad that they do not listen and move. But, it's their choice.
Quoting beell:


That's the cooler temperatures aloft associated with the unseasonably strong trough that just moved across the Plain and into the midwest.

I don't think it had much influence on Beatriz's life.

There is a much smaller area aloft which drops down the west coast after the larger trough (travels much further south directly towards Beatriz), kind of imbedded in the plume of heat that dropped down with it. Either way the images are not up to date, so all I can do is XTRAP and see if it matches up with the general time of it collapsing; which it does. I'm sure it wasn't the only factor though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Most of the pre-season forecasts for Hurricane Season 2011 were made before models came on board for an active Cape Verde season. The main reason they say this season will be less active than last season is because of Sea Surface temperatures. But I am wondering, if we have an active Cape Verde season, will that make up for the SST difference this year vs. last?


Most 2nd-year La Ninas have active Cape Verde seasons, though some farther west than traditional "Cape Verde" storms due to cooler SSTs. It would take a lot to get 2011 up to the level of 2010. Such active seasons just don't occur back to back.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Going by this, I would say the eye did touch land.
fxcellent video Aussie Storm, then we have our first landfalling hurricane of the EPAC/ATL 2011 Hurricane season? Guess we will have to wait for NHC to make its determination?
602. MTWX
Quoting gulfscout:


Rain has not made it's way to south texas. rain chances in houston have just decreased.

don't worry, by morning you guys should get something that resembles precipitation.
The GOM is very warm now because of the record heat and drought. As summer normalizes, it could very well cool off a few degrees. The action this year appears to be centered in the Pacific. We will get our share, but not anything like 2005.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
But I am wondering, if we have an active Cape Verde season, will that make up for the SST difference this year vs. last?


This has been my thinking as well. Overall, SSTs in the MDR are substantially cooler than they were last year. However, they are still plenty warm to support development. Besides, SSTs don't really matter all that much anyway, TCHP does.

Quoting FrankZapper:
not anything like 2005.
I doubt we'll witness another 2005 for another 60 years, if even that.
Quoting gulfscout:


Rain has not made it's way to south texas. rain chances in houston have just decreased.


I saw the blow up on the water vapor and was hoping for you folks. It will eventually come, it will come just hang on! We're all hoping for you!!!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
fxcellent video Aussie Storm, then we have our first landfalling hurricane of the EPAC/ATL 2011 Hurricane season? Guess we will have to wait for NHC to make its determination?

I don't think they will classify this as a landfall. I think that's when 50% of the eye crosses the coast, but i am happy to be corrected on that?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
That was unexpected.
I'll drink to that!
.
.

Remove the picture please, some people might find that offensive and degrading.
Quoting FrankZapper:
The GOM is very warm now because of the record heat and drought. As summer normalizes, it could very well cool off a few degrees. The action this year appears to be centered in the Pacific. We will get our share, but not anything like 2005.
Noone said we were having a 2005.I'm just saying in years like these I have seen storms either quickly spin up or quickly intensify.
What? Beatriz is no longer a tropical cyclone?
The GOM is not likely to cool at all until we either get a storm in it or until next Fall. The thing just does not cool at all this time of year.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Remove the picture please, some people might find that offensive and degrading.


Agreed, my first reaction was not positive in this either. Can anybody say EWWWW!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Remove the picture please, some people might find that offensive and degrading.


Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left
615. 1344
Quoting Levi32:


Most 2nd-year La Ninas have active Cape Verde seasons, though some farther west than traditional "Cape Verde" storms due to cooler SSTs. It would take a lot to get 2011 up to the level of 2010. Such active seasons just don't occur back to back.


This is not a second year La Nina, BTW
Quoting AussieStorm:

Remove the picture please, some people might find that offensive and degrading.
ALREADY REMOVED SORRY COSMIC
Gotta say, this has got to be the fastest I've seen a tropical cyclone go from hurricane to dissipation in my entire time studying weather.

Beatriz is no longer a tropical cyclone as of the latest 11 PM EST advisory from the NHC. Based upon this, it went from hurricane to dissipation in less than 15 hours.
Quoting TampaSpin:
The GOM is not likely to cool at all until we either get a storm in it or until next Fall. The thing just does not cool at all this time of year.
The GOM will also not cool off if these non-cloudy hot days continue.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Gotta say, this has got to be the fastest I've seen a tropical cyclone go from hurricane to dissipation in my entire time studying weather.

Beatriz is no longer a tropical cyclone as of the latest 11 PM EST advisory from the NHC. Based upon this, it went from hurricane to dissipation in less than 18 hours.


WOW, I have never seen something like it
Quoting 1344:


This is not a second year La Nina, BTW
this season is neutral till mid sept till the heart of the season
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left
ok......lol..........im lost, what exactly did Beatriz achieve? Strike or Direct Hit?
Speaking of statistics related to direct hits/landfalls, does anyone know if there has ever been one season with back-to-back landfalls of a hurricane or tropical storm say within 50-100 miles of the same location?....... (not counting the Charley/Wilma one-two punch in South Florida a few years back as they "criss-crossed" some of the same parts of the State but initial landfalls were in very different locations).
Quoting 1344:


This is not a second year La Nina, BTW
Welll it went from La nina to neutreal this year.That's probally what he meant...
624. MTWX
This low is controling the weather over at least 75% of the country right now!! This thing is massive!Link
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Speaking of statistics related to direct hits/landfalls, does anyone know if there has ever been one season with back-to-back landfalls of a hurricane or tropical storm say within 50-100 miles of the same location?....... (not counting the Charley/Wilma one-two punch in South Florida a few years back as they "criss-crossed" some of the same parts of the State but initial landfalls were in very different locations).
Yes!!! Frances and Jeanne.
Quoting 1344:


This is not a second year La Nina, BTW


It is because of how the winter and spring went down in La Nina conditions. Regardless of whether we are in neutral during the summer or not, the global energy budget for the year is largely defined by the ENSO state during the spring, which is usually weakening towards neutral in most years.






looks like something going on around Nicaragua to me?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!!! Frances and Jeanne.
Jeanne made landfall only 3 miles from where Frances made landfall 3 weeks before.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Gotta say, this has got to be the fastest I've seen a tropical cyclone go from hurricane to dissipation in my entire time studying weather.

Beatriz is no longer a tropical cyclone as of the latest 11 PM EST advisory from the NHC. Based upon this, it went from hurricane to dissipation in less than 15 hours.


It's quite common in the eastern Pacific. The blog just doesn't pay very much attention to the Pacific fish storms in the middle of the Atlantic season when there are true land threats, and thus we miss most of the spectacular dissipations. Adrian did it too.
I'am awesome.
633. MTWX
Quoting TampaSpin:

I'm sure the people on the Texas coast would enjoy that senerio!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALREADY REMOVED SORRY COSMIC


Thanks, seriously this board is about weather not nasty cheap....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Jeanne made landfall only 3 miles from where Frances made landfall 3 weeks before.


Thanks (maybe I got my names mixed up)...I need to check the archive charts on that one....What year was that again?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Speaking of statistics related to direct hits/landfalls, does anyone know if there has ever been one season with back-to-back landfalls of a hurricane or tropical storm say within 50-100 miles of the same location?....... (not counting the Charley/Wilma one-two punch in South Florida a few years back as they "criss-crossed" some of the same parts of the State but initial landfalls were in very different locations).
I think Francis and Jeane [2004] had similar landfalls.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GOM will also not cool off if these non-cloudy hot days continue.
Well that's the point I was trying to make. If the GOM has more cloudy and less intensely hot days it has got to cool off a little.Water can cool off in the summer. It will still be very favorable for development however.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks (maybe I got my names mixed up)...I need to check the archive charts on that one....What year was that again?
2004.
Quoting alfabob:

There is a much smaller area aloft which drops down the west coast after the larger trough (travels much further south directly towards Beatriz), kind of imbedded in the plume of heat that dropped down with it. Either way the images are not up to date, so all I can do is XTRAP and see if it matches up with the general time of it collapsing; which it does. I'm sure it wasn't the only factor though.
what?

Could you post the image of where you are getting this and then explain what toured trying to say please?

I'm curious
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks (maybe I got my names mixed up)...I need to check the archive charts on that one....What year was that again?


2004. Same town, just a couple miles apart.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Speaking of statistics related to direct hits/landfalls, does anyone know if there has ever been one season with back-to-back landfalls of a hurricane or tropical storm say within 50-100 miles of the same location?....... (not counting the Charley/Wilma one-two punch in South Florida a few years back as they "criss-crossed" some of the same parts of the State but initial landfalls were in very different locations).
Frances and Jeanne in 2004?
Quoting caneswatch:


2004. Same town, just a couple miles apart.
It was like ading salt to injury for those people that lived down there.Just when your cleaning up and putting your life back together you see another one on the horizen..and then it stikes you..
Quoting gulfscout:


Rain has not made it's way to south texas. rain chances in houston have just decreased.


The rain here has been minimal but we're supposed to get another chance tomorrow. I just ran across this when trying to find out about Texas droughts. So I guess everything's normal here.

Hurricanes

One major weather condition threats Texas every year. The Texas Gulf Coast is in the line of fire of deadly hurricanes from mid-summer through fall. These monster storms come ashore with torrential rains, powerful winds and a deadly storm surge. Hurricanes come ashore in Texas about every three years, on average. As of 2011, the deadliest hurricane to hit the state was in 1900. More 8,000 people were killed on Galveston Island when the hurricane's storm surge covered the entire land surface of the island.

Drought

All of Texas is susceptible to drought. Each decade of its history has brought a period of severe drought to the state. Streams dry up, crops die and brush fires rage in this challenging weather condition. Some droughts have plagued Texas in excess of five years. Texas droughts tend to end because of the torrential rain associated with tropical storms.



Thanks Folks.....Why look it up when someone on here usually knows the answer...... :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The rain here has been minimal but we're supposed to get another chance tomorrow. I just ran across this when trying to find out about Texas droughts. So I guess everything's normal here.

Hurricanes

One major weather condition threats Texas every year. The Texas Gulf Coast is in the line of fire of deadly hurricanes from mid-summer through fall. These monster storms come ashore with torrential rains, powerful winds and a deadly storm surge. Hurricanes come ashore in Texas about every three years, on average. As of 2011, the deadliest hurricane to hit the state was in 1900. More 8,000 people were killed on Galveston Island when the hurricane's storm surge covered the entire land surface of the island.

Drought

All of Texas is susceptible to drought. Each decade of its history has brought a period of severe drought to the state. Streams dry up, crops die and brush fires rage in this challenging weather condition. Some droughts have plagued Texas in excess of five years. Texas droughts tend to end because of the torrential rain associated with tropical storms.



Well it's been three years since you all have had a hurricane...Let's see what happens...
Quoting Levi32:


It's quite common in the eastern Pacific. The blog just doesn't pay very much attention to the Pacific fish storms in the middle of the Atlantic season when there are true land threats, and thus we miss most of the spectacular dissipations. Adrian did it too.


I'm guessing this happens due to the expansive marine layer that encompasses most of the Eastern Pacific.

2004 and 2005 were insane. i lived in cape coral,fl and it seemed like we had a Hurricane Watch or Warning every weekend for 3 months.
TX is getting rain.. Highest total so far by radar is 7.5 inches.
Well gotta go before the kids bother me to death.I mean it is their summer break.And my local news is on.Good night everyone.

Quoting Skyepony:
TX is getting rain.. Highest total so far by radar is 7.5 inches.

:D
Quoting Skyepony:
TX is getting rain.. Highest total so far by radar is 7.5 inches.


That's some very welcomed news.

That soaking rain is falling in some of the worst drought stricken areas in Texas:

Some droughts have plagued Texas in excess of five years

this one has only been 5 months, imagine 5 years
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Speaking of statistics related to direct hits/landfalls, does anyone know if there has ever been one season with back-to-back landfalls of a hurricane or tropical storm say within 50-100 miles of the same location?....... (not counting the Charley/Wilma one-two punch in South Florida a few years back as they "criss-crossed" some of the same parts of the State but initial landfalls were in very different locations).






Gustav was pretty close to that too.
Odd for this time of year.

Pensacola NAS, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 51 sec ago

82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the NNW

Wind Gust: 32 mph
Pressure: 30.04 in (Rising)
The worst in '04 was after Frances, I think Ivan was suppose to hit hard. Still didn't have power. Luckily it turned. Then Jeanne showed up. We were over the shock of the thought of getting smacked back to back. Jeanne was hands down the easiest storm to get ready for since we were already ready..Just needed more dried, canned food.

Remnants Of Beatriz winds only 30 mph!! wow
Quoting AtHomeInTX:






Gustav was pretty close to that too.


Gustav made landfall in Eastern Louisiana

Now Humberto in 2008 and Rita in 2005 hit very close to that area
saying goodbye to beatriz


...Beatriz has dissipated...this is the last advisory...


summary of 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...19.0n 107.0w
about 130 mi...205 km SW of Cabo Corrientes Mexico
maximum sustained winds...30 mph...45 km/h
present movement...W or 270 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
satellite and surface data indicate that Beatriz no longer has a
well-defined surface circulation and has dissipated.
At 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the remnants of Beatriz were estimated to
be near latitude 19.0 north...longitude 107.0 west.
The remnants were moving generally westward near 10 mph...17
km/h...and this motion should continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/h...with higher
gusts. Winds associated with the remnants of Beatriz are expected
to decrease over the next day or so.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico
associated with the remnants of Beatriz will gradually diminish
over the next day or so.


Next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Beatriz. For additional information on this system please
see high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...
under AWIPS header nfdhsfepi and WMO header fzpn02 kwbc.
Quoting TomTaylor:
what?
Could you post the image of where you are getting this and then explain what toured trying to say please?
I'm curious

Basically I'm thinking that this continued either straight into Beatriz or very close to its location. The previous cold front/trough is already somewhat weak in the latest image (it is adjacent to the cold pocket).
Thanks Folks........Gonna hit the sack....Good Night.
661. MTWX
Quoting PcolaDan:
Odd for this time of year.

Pensacola NAS, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 51 sec ago

82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the NNW

Wind Gust: 32 mph
Pressure: 30.04 in (Rising)

the line of storms coming your way is bowing.
Seems like nearly every year there is some spot in the world that gets hit more than once. Almost always the TCHP is exceptionally hot in the area.
Quoting TampaSpin:


#627
That looks like a relatively dry pattern for Florida.
Or am I not understanding the view?
Quoting MTWX:

the line of storms coming your way is bowing.


Looks like it's dissipating as it gets nearer to me, (no rain).
40 frames x 2
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
ok......lol..........im lost, what exactly did Beatriz achieve? Strike or Direct Hit?
strike
669. MTWX
Quoting PcolaDan:


Looks like it's dissipating as it gets nearer to me, (no rain).

looks like the dry air got under it, cutting off the moisture.
Quoting spathy:


#627
That looks like a relatively dry pattern for Florida.
Or am I not understanding the view?


Starting to actually look like more Afternoon Thunderstorms are now coming. Seabreeze and heating of the day over land boomers are starting up.
Hurricane Beatriz has killed three people in Acapulco and wreaked havoc at the start of Mexico's busy summer tourist season before weakening to a tropical storm. The second Pacific hurricane of 2011 brought high winds and heavy rains to beach resorts from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, forcing thousands of tourists to hole up in their hotels as it uprooted trees and flooded roads. In Acapulco, the main port on Mexico's Pacific coast and a popular tourist spot, three members of the same family drowned after falling into a septic tank while trying to rescue two women, public safety officials said. Another person was reported missing and dozens of homes were seriously damaged. 'Undoubtedly, Acapulco was the hardest hit,' said Guerrero state public safety spokesman Ramon Almonte. Top winds of 130km per hour died down by Tuesday afternoon to 95km/h and Beatriz was forecast to track into the Pacific and fizzle out on Wednesday. 'There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect,' the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami reported. The western state of Jalisco was also hit hard by the storm, with heavy rain recorded in Tomatlan, Cabo Corrientes, La Huerta and Puerto Vallarta, another of Mexico's biggest tourist destinations. Red flags dotted the beaches to keep swimmers out of the high seas and local authorities urged caution when driving through mountainous interior roads due to the risk of landslides. Hundreds of shelters set up along Jalisco's 300km of coastline were not ultimately used, emergency officials said. Neighbourhoods near the coast in Huatulco, in Oaxaca state, as well as in Acapulco reported flooding. High waves swept a car in Acapulco out to sea, but both occupants of the vehicle managed to escape unharmed, according to local television reports.
Quoting alfabob:

img src="">
that's not even remotely close to Beatriz and the direction it was headed in is not close to Beatriz either. If you xtrap that, you'd end up in Texas
Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
40 frames x 2


That's such a beautiful sight; almost makes you want to shed some tears of joy.
Quoting TomTaylor:
that's not even remotely close to Beatriz and the direction it was headed in is not close to Beatriz either. If you xtrap that, you'd end up in Texas

If it continued that curve for another ~30 hours it would be right on top of Beatriz (image was from about 30 hours prior to the dissipation). Probably was forced south due to the high pressure building in, will update when they post the new images.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Some droughts have plagued Texas in excess of five years

this one has only been 5 months, imagine 5 years


I don't even want to imagine that. Scary thought.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Starting to actually look like more Afternoon Thunderstorms are now coming. Seabreeze and heating of the day over land boomers are starting up.


Looking back over the past week, I believe we have seen the real beginning to the rainy season here in Florida. Been getting daily sea breeze induced thunderstorms across the state.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Some droughts have plagued Texas in excess of five years

this one has only been 5 months, imagine 5 years
The drought here is close to a year long according to my rainfall totals.
Quoting MTWX:

looks like the dry air got under it, cutting off the moisture.


But from where? I mean, that line has been holding together all day. And not an hour ago it was putting on quite a lightning show north and west of us. And it's sucking moisture up from the Gulf. This is moving just like a winter front, blowing in from the W/NW with the cells moving towards the NE. Weird for this time of year.
Not exactly a lot of rain with it anyway. :(

Quoting alfabob:

If it continued that curve for another ~30 hours it would be right on top of Beatriz (image was from about 30 hours prior to the dissipation). Probably was forced south due to the high pressure building in, will update when they post the new images.


Hard to force a system that had no defined circulation anymore to the south.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Looking back over the past week, I believe we have seen the real beginning to the rainy season here in Florida. Been getting daily sea breeze induced thunderstorms across the state.



Yep!!!!
My next door neighbor Elway says that a very hot landmass, such as we have had in the Southeast and Texas will form a heat low eventually like they get often in the Southwest. This will act like a giant vacuum cleaner and suck a Ts right in. Is there any truth to this or is this something he picked up at the watering hole?
683. MTWX
Quoting PcolaDan:


But from where? I mean, that line has been holding together all day. And not an hour ago it was putting on quite a lightning show north and west of us. And it's sucking moisture up from the Gulf. This is moving just like a winter front, blowing in from the W/NW with the cells moving towards the NE. Weird for this time of year.

Thinking about it we have had weird set ups over the last couple of weeks too. Normally our storms come out of the NW or W, but in the last week we have had ones come from the N, S and one line that even came from the east (which I have not seen before in the 7 years I have been here, with the exception of tropical systems)
Quoting PcolaDan:
Not exactly a lot of rain with it anyway. :(



No, just a few drops here on my side of town, but the temps have dropped considerably. It actually feels quite nice outside right now...
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Hard to force a system that had no defined circulation anymore to the south.

Possibly, idk it did kind of look like there was a trough adjacent to the high pressure that began to build in; it was showing up in RGB to the NW of Beatriz as a bulge, but I could be wrong.
Found something that was rather interesting from last year.

While Danielle was forming, the southern portion of the wave broke off and headed into the EPAC where it became TD-11E. TD-11E made landfall and crossed over to the GOMEX where it became TD-10 and then Tropical Storm Hermine. So Danielle, TD-11E and Hermine can all be linked to a single wave.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Gustav made landfall in Eastern Louisiana

Now Humberto in 2008 and Rita in 2005 hit very close to that area


My county was under a hurricane warning for Gustav. You're right though he missed us by quite a lot to the east. That was the same thing that happened with Andrew and Lili. (also warnings evacs here). Humberto and Rita went right over my houses. I say houses because Rita came first. lol. Yeah it was crazy busy around here for a few years.

Quoting FrankZapper:
Is there any truth to this or is this something he picked up at the watering hole?
I think it's untrue. Because if that is the case, then wouldn't every drought-stricken area, in theory, develop one of these?
Quoting alfabob:

If it continued that curve for another ~30 hours it would be right on top of Beatriz (image was from about 30 hours prior to the dissipation).
here is the satellite water vapor image for the same time



That cool pocket in the troposhere looks like it is from the low that came out of Colorado.


I don't know why you would xtrap it either. and furthermore, even if you did xtrap it, xtrap uses straight lines...it doesn't follow curves

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Found something that was rather interesting from last year.

While Danielle was forming, the southern portion of the wave broke off and headed into the EPAC where it became TD-11E. TD-11E made landfall and crossed over to the GOMEX where it became TD-10 and then Tropical Storm Hermine. So Danielle, TD-11E and Hermine can all be linked to a single wave.
Noticed that last year when I was doing my seasonal summary. Very interesting, indeed. It's also similar to where a single tropical wave in 1992 can be traced from Africa all the way to the Central Pacific (Georgette).
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm guessing this happens due to the expansive marine layer that encompasses most of the Eastern Pacific.



Correct.
Wow, NOGAPS ensembles? Sweet!

Quoting KoritheMan:

Noticed that last year when I was doing my seasonal summary. Very interesting, indeed. It's also similar to where a single tropical wave in 1992 can be traced from Africa all the way to the Central Pacific (Georgette).


Even more so is the possibility that in 1961 Hurricane Hattie contributed to the development of the EPAC Tropical Storm Simone, which hit Mexico and went into the Gulf and formed Tropical Storm Inga.

Hattie


Simone


Inga
Quoting Levi32:
Wow, NOGAPS ensembles? Sweet!



If those ensembles are correct, then we've gotta watch for some possible tropical mischief in the Caribbean.
some weather moving in
Levi, did you check out what the GFS, CMC, & NOGAPS are showing in the GOMEX next week?
PSU E-wall has new CMC ensembles and NOGAPS ensembles for 0z and 12z (look on the left-hand side of the page). 500mb maps only.
Quoting Levi32:
Wow, NOGAPS ensembles? Sweet!

Levi, can you post the link please?

EDIT: nevermind LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Levi, did you check out what the GFS, CMC, & NOGAPS are showing in the GOMEX next week?


Yup. GFS doesn't show a whole lot though. It will be interesting to see if the models become consistent with that solution.
Quoting FrankZapper:
My next door neighbor Elway says that a very hot landmass, such as we have had in the Southeast and Texas will form a heat low eventually like they get often in the Southwest. This will act like a giant vacuum cleaner and suck a Ts right in. Is there any truth to this or is this something he picked up at the watering hole?


Maybe drinking a little more than Water at the Watering Hole...........LOL! I never heard of such a theory as Storms flow around High Pressure and do flow into weaknesses between Highs!
Quoting Levi32:


Yup. GFS doesn't show a whole lot though. It will be interesting to see if the models become consistent with that solution.


Are you leaning toward any development in this area? Always appreciate your input, Levi :-)
Quoting TomTaylor:
here is the satellite water vapor image for the same time



That cool pocket in the troposhere looks like it is from the low that came out of Colorado.


I don't know why you would xtrap it either. and furthermore, even if you did xtrap it, xtrap uses straight lines...it doesn't follow curves

I managed to find it on IR3, can't tell where it is though except for the location relative to Beatriz (no coordinates or country lines on the imagery I have); but the high pressure does force it straight into it before dissipation. XTRAP means "In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of constructing new data points outside a discrete set of known data points", linear extrapolation is what your thinking of; but that is very difficult to do with curvilinear coordinates. The XTRAP I used is relative to the actual trend and is not linear. Seems that this cool air is most likely the main reason for rapid dissipation.
Wow, that blow up over Texas seems to be a much needed event.
Here's to hoping it will green your grass and stoke your gardens a bit!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALREADY REMOVED SORRY COSMIC
That's fine keep, you did the right thing.
My apologies to the blog.
I hit the wrong link accidently.


Keep on coming southeast...
Quoting druseljic:


Are you leaning toward any development in this area? Always appreciate your input, Levi :-)


I've been voicing concern over that area heating up near the end of the month for quite some time. I can't say whether we will actually get development until we are closer in on the situation, but of course I still believe the threat is there.
Quoting Levi32:
PSU E-wall has new CMC ensembles and NOGAPS ensembles for 0z and 12z (look on the left-hand side of the page). 500mb maps only.


That is too much info...my head is going to explode...lol
Quoting Levi32:


I've been voicing concern over that area heating up near the end of the month for quite some time. I can't say whether we will actually get development until we are closer in on the situation, but of course I still believe the threat is there.


Thanks for the response! Always appreciate the knowledgeable input when trying to learn...
I'm going to bed, if that dang squall line doesnt barrel to the upper TX coastand dump large amounts of rain for me by surise, I'm going AWOL
I had to ask Jesus! please send the rain by morning, we can't afford not to get it this time this is the only chance we have while conditions are prime
Quoting AtHomeInTX:






Gustav was pretty close to that too.


hurricane Frances and hurricane Jeanne in 2004 made landfall within what I believe ten miles of each other.
713. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:
I had to ask Jesus! please send the rain by morning, we can't afford not to get it this time this is the only chance we have while conditions are prime

Did you see the little bit of stuff coming in from offshore?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:






Gustav was pretty close to that too.


In 2004 hurricane Frances and Hurricane Jeanne made landfall in what i believe to be was ten miles of each other.
">
Here is a nice Summary of the US Climate Extremes for Spring 2011.

The link is to the intro, but if you hit the tabs at the top, there is a more detailed discussion about the Tornadoes, Floods, Droughts, and more

Sorry if it's already been posted.
Quoting MTWX:

Did you see the little bit of stuff coming in from offshore?


Yea, seeing lightning too
717. beell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST CONTINUES
TO RACE THIS WAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH AND LOWER POPS
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CARRIED CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TOMORROW.
ALSO MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON QPF.

WORD HAS IT THAT A LOT OF SOUTHEAST TEXANS WOULD NOT MIND BEING WOKEN
UP TO RAIN AND THUNDER TONIGHT. HEY MOTHER NATURE - PLEASE DON`T
DISAPPOINT US. 42
Quoting Levi32:


Correct.
Levi, why does the marine layer cover so much of the sub tropical east pacific?

I do know some of the basic reasons, but I was just hoping for a more detailed explanation as to why it's almost always present.

thanks in advance
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levi, why does the marine layer cover so much of the sub tropical east pacific?

I do know some of the basic reasons, but I was just hoping for a more detailed explanation as to why it's almost always present


It's because of the cold California Current (the Pacific east boundary current) that brings cold water southward along the west coast of North America. This current brings sub-26C water down to south of 20N even during the height of summer, and thus there is almost always a stable marine layer present due to warm air over cold water. This layer is the destroyer of almost all east Pacific storms that don't make landfall in Mexico, as any storm moving WNW is likely to run into that marine layer eventually, and the resulting collapse of thunderstorm activity is usually quite rapid, as we have seen.

June-October Climatological SSTs:

I see a little dimple moving on rainbow in almost a straight line (not Beatriz); mass of convection moving north with another mass moving south to the west of it. Could get interesting, lots of water vapor available.

CIMSS indicates a 850mb trough extending down the western GOM/BOC coast, with a region of 700mb vorticity. Buoy to the east near the middle of the GOM has east winds, and there are winds moving SSE on the SW coast of the BOC.
18z GFS was pretty much the same as the 12z GFS, if not slightly stronger.
Quoting Cliffordfl:
I think Francis and Jeane [2004] had similar landfalls.

Erin and Opal 1995
Texas appears to finally getting it's turn! In addition to the super massive low rolling across the mid US, what is causing all this flare up? Is the increased flow of moisture from the GOM playing in conjucture to cause these impressive blow ups?
Quoting alfabob:
I see a little dimple moving on rainbow in almost a straight line (not Beatriz); mass of convection moving north with another mass moving south to the west of it. Could get interesting, lots of water vapor available.



And what do you think is going to happen after those storms plus the nightfall have depleted the ground's heat capacity? They'll die, just like they already are starting to based on IR showing warming of the cloud tops.
726. beell
Quoting druseljic:
Texas appears to finally getting it's turn! In addition to the super massive low rolling across the mid US, what is causing all this flare up? Is the increased flow of moisture from the GOM playing in conjucture to cause these impressive blow ups?


That is the number one reason.

That massive low you mentioned broke down the summer time mid/upper ridge that has been stuck over TX well before summer began and allowed deep-layer moisture to move in.

Tonights activity parlayed that moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary and congealed into an MCS.

Not a drought breaker but it may put out a few fires. We'll take it!
Quoting Levi32:


And what do you think is going to happen after those storms plus the nightfall have depleted the ground's heat capacity? They'll die, just like they already are starting to based on IR showing warming of the cloud tops.

Possibly, but even if they collapse they may help in future development of the area. Just a large region of low pressure that has the potential to start consolidating and producing what the models are predicting. Of course it would need to establish a surface circulation/pressure in the GOM to actually have a chance at becoming a TC; but highly moist regions like that can sometimes start spinning up if given the opportunity.
Quoting beell:


That is the number one reason.

That massive low you mentioned broke down the summer time mid/upper ridge that has been stuck over TX well before summer and allowed deep-layer moisture to move in.

Tonights activity parlayed that moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary and congealed into an MCS.

Not a drought breaker but it may put out a few fires. We'll take it!


Wonderful.. That area needs it so much and it would be nice if it continues eastward along the coast for the next few days...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Even more so is the possibility that in 1961 Hurricane Hattie contributed to the development of the EPAC Tropical Storm Simone, which hit Mexico and went into the Gulf and formed Tropical Storm Inga.

Hattie


Simone


Inga

Also if i remember Hurricane Ivan took a trip up to Nova then circled down to form a tropical storm.
Quoting beell:


That is the number one reason.

That massive low you mentioned broke down the summer time mid/upper ridge that has been stuck over TX well before summer and allowed deep-layer moisture to move in.

Tonights activity parlayed that moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary and congealed into an MCS.

Not a drought breaker but it may put out a few fires. We'll take it!


There is also some little isolated storms starting to roll in off the gulf. Do you think the main line will hold together long enough to bring widespread rain to the hou-galv area?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Also if i remember Hurricane Ivan took a trip up to Jersy then circled down to form a tropical storm.
Quoting Levi32:


It's because of the cold California Current (the Pacific east boundary current) that brings cold water southward along the west coast of North America. This current brings sub-26C water down to south of 20N even during the height of summer, and thus there is almost always a stable marine layer present due to warm air over cold water. This layer is the destroyer of almost all east Pacific storms that don't make landfall in Mexico, as any storm moving WNW is likely to run into that marine layer eventually, and the resulting collapse of thunderstorm activity is usually quite rapid, as we have seen.

June-October Climatological SSTs:

thanks levi, but to take it further, the cool SSTs produced by the cold California Current cool the lower atmosphere creating denser air which favors sinking air rather than rising air. Additionally, the cooler air below creates a temperature inversion which inhibits convection. Cooler SSTs also mean less evaporation which means less moisture is available for convection. As a result, the combination of cooler, denser lower atmospheric air, a temperature inversion, minimal atmospheric moisture, and a semi permanent sub tropical ridge which promotes sinking air, convection is strongly inhibited.

As for the marine layer, that is formed as a result of the cooler lower atmosphere which lowers the dew point, meaning a lower amount of water vapor is necessary to form clouds. Additionally, the temp inversion created by the semi permanent high and cooler lower atmosphere pushes down on the air mass below the inversion, trapping and further condensing the marine layer.

is there anything I am missing or have wrong in that? I'm just trying to get a clear picture of what's going on, especially since this weather pattern is very common where I live (Southern California).
733. beell
Quoting gulfscout:


There is also some little isolated storms starting to roll in off the gulf. Do you think the main line will hold together long enough to bring widespread rain to the hou-galv area?


Those are probably what are called streamer-showers under the capping inversion. They want to grow up to be big storms and they have enough moisture to do so but can't grow much before hitting the "lid"-so we get short-lived sprinkly, sometimes showery rain just underneath the inversion. The air simply cannot hold the water anymore-saturated at this level.

Gosh, you remember the last one of these a month or so ago? Ran right up to Harris county and died.

This one may get pretty close. It may also leave an outflow boundary very close to us to act as a focus for t-storms tomorrow.

One way or another, we should see some rain here.
Good late evening, WU! I live in the Downers Grove, IL, area - so the storms you watched TWC cover tonight in Chicagoland rolled pretty much right over me. I took some video. It's not the best quality because my camera kept going out of focus, but feel free to check it out.

Leading edge of the clouds rolling in, including some of the darkest clouds I've ever seen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wF-87quYSc

Possible funnel cloud? If it is, it's the first one I've seen/taped in my life: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ebX7pLK4pQ

Heavy wind/rain begins: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OT1e2yIWso

I retreat inside as it keeps pouring: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_x_HgTfxuo

Second round of tornado warnings as the worst passes just east of me: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-N42-dv7Xs
735. JRRP
Quoting TomTaylor:
thanks levi, but to take it further, the cool SSTs produced by the cold California Current cool the lower atmosphere creating denser air which favors sinking air rather than rising air. Additionally, the cooler air below creates a temperature inversion which inhibits convection. Cooler SSTs also mean less evaporation which means less moisture is available for convection. As a result, the combination of cooler, denser lower atmospheric air, a temperature inversion, minimal atmospheric moisture, and a semi permanent sub tropical ridge which promotes sinking air, convection is strongly inhibited.

As for the marine layer, that is formed as a result of the cooler lower atmosphere which lowers the dew point, meaning a lower amount of water vapor is necessary to form clouds. Additionally, the temp inversion created by the semi permanent high and cooler lower atmosphere pushes down on the air mass below the inversion, trapping and further condensing the marine layer.

is there anything I am missing or have wrong in that? I'm just trying to get a clear picture of what's going on, especially since this weather pattern is very common where I live (Southern California).


I think you know you got it :) I gave the simplified in-a-sentence version of it lol.
Quoting Levi32:


You got it. I gave the simplified in-a-sentence version of it lol.
alright cool, thanks for your help

EDIT: looking at your edit, yea you're kinda right, I do know I know it, but that wasn't until I ran a few Google searches lol. When I first made that post asking you about the marine layer I only knew about half of that stuff lol
Dang, I killed the blog :(
Quoting TomTaylor:
Dang, I killed the blog :(
Nah, its just late. That flare up over Texas is a beautiful sight is it not? Rain where it is so needed!
I don't live in Texas but I am so glad to see you folks are finally getting some much needed relief from this crazy drought. Let it rain!!!
Quoting druseljic:
Nah, its just late. That flare up over Texas is a beautiful sight is it not? Rain where it is so needed!
Yeah it is. Beell was on it, he called that rain several days ago
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah it is. Beell was on it, he called that rain several days ago


Thats what I love about this blog, its interesting to watch the various posts and how they pan out. Looks like he did a good job!
Quoting druseljic:


Thats what I love about this blog, its interesting to watch the various posts and how they pan out. Looks like he did a good job!
yep, agreed. I've learned a ton of stuff on here.

And yes, beell did a great job
Wind shift might indicate that the vorticity is trying to consolidate to the west of the BOC, needs to be consistent though.

san antonio finally gets their turn at rain :)
Again the blog has come to a standstill, I guess everyone is sleeping.. Come on you night lurkers...
Quoting alfabob:


Amazing the flow coming into Texas and the eastern gulf, Mother Nature is helping us out here...
Night lurkers are still here. At least I am
Quoting druseljic:


Amazing the flow coming into Texas and the eastern gulf, Mother Nature is helping us out here...
you should watch the Total Precipitable Water loop, you can clearly see the water vapor channeling straight into the region
Quoting FrankZapper:
My next door neighbor Elway says that a very hot landmass, such as we have had in the Southeast and Texas will form a heat low eventually like they get often in the Southwest. This will act like a giant vacuum cleaner and suck a Ts right in. Is there any truth to this or is this something he picked up at the watering hole?
I think there already is a weak heat low there, but I'm not entirely sure

Either way, heat lows rarely have much affect on the steering patterns of storms because they are weak and shallow lows. Shallow means they do not reach the deep, or in other words, mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Since these heat lows don't really affect the mid to upper layers of the atmosphere (where the winds are that primarily steer hurricanes and other non tropical storms) and since they are usually not very strong (except over large extremely hot deserts like the Sahara) storms aren't significantly steered by heat lows.
But the storms seem to be quite strong, what is your outlook for the near future in this area>
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (T1104)
15:00 PM JST June 22 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Northern South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haima (994 hPa) located at 20.7N 113.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.6N 110.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 21.5N 106.7E - Tropical Depression

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Storm will move at the same speed for the next 48 hours

Tropical Storm will move west northwest for the next 24 hours then move west

Tropical Storm will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours

Final Initial Dvorak number will be 2.0 after 24 hours
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL STORM MEARI (T1105)
15:00 PM JST June 22 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Meari (998 hPa) located at 13.8N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==============
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 126.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 20.8N 123.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 25.2N 122.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
755. jpsb
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The drought here is close to a year long according to my rainfall totals.
Agreed, this is the second year here of hardy any rain at all. Two winters ago we had good rains here in Galveston County but since then very little rain. So I'd say the drought has been going on for 16/18 months, not 5.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I think there already is a weak heat low there, but I'm not entirely sure

Either way, heat lows rarely have much affect on the steering patterns of storms because they are weak and shallow lows. Shallow means they do not reach the deep, or in other words, mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Since these heat lows don't really affect the mid to upper layers of the atmosphere (where the winds are that primarily steer hurricanes and other non tropical storms) and since they are usually not very strong (except over large extremely hot deserts like the Sahara) storms aren't significantly steered by heat lows.
Thank you Dr Taylor. You explained it so all can understand
Sort of a blowup East of Barbados tonight. Wonder if it will hold through max ?
Should bring some unsettled weather to the Winwards after dawn today.
I'm very happy for those areas in my state that are getting rain! Yes! Now hoping they sweep through us all.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I'm very happy for those areas in my state that are getting rain! Yes! Now hoping they sweep through us all.



Hope you get plenty!!!

And ABOUT TIME!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


Hope you get plenty!!!

And ABOUT TIME!!


Thank you Trauma! Yes it has been a long time coming. The areas that are getting rain to my north have been having fires for months now. I can only hope that will help out with those. I haven't given up hope here yet. Supposed to have at least one more day before the high moves back over us from the west. Hopefully that means this front or whatever it is will drag its rain all along the gulf coast then over Fl. :)
new low soon!!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thank you Trauma! Yes it has been a long time coming. The areas that are getting rain to my north have been having fires for months now. I can only hope that will help out with those. I haven't given up hope here yet. Supposed to have at least one more day before the high moves back over us from the west. Hopefully that means this front or whatever it is will drag its rain all along the gulf coast then over Fl. :)


We have actually had a decent amount here in NW Florida over the last couple of weeks. Horses are happy with some fresh grass at least. The combination of HEAT and moisture are giving us more than our usual share of severe thunderstorms but I guess you take what you can get.
as the sun heads south it also gets directly over the mdr it will warm the oceans depths thank god texas got some rain.
Quoting traumaboyy:


We have actually had a decent amount here in NW Florida over the last couple of weeks. Horses are happy with some fresh grass at least. The combination of HEAT and moisture are giving us more than our usual share of severe thunderstorms but I guess you take what you can get.


Good to hear y'all are getting some rain. Yep, we don't get too picky where our rain comes from. Just hope it comes in the tamest form possible.
768. IKE
I live in NW Florida. Since May 15th I've had .34 inches of rain.
Quoting IKE:
I live in NW Florida. Since May 15th I've had .34 inches of rain.


Good point IKE!! And good morning!

It has been HIT and MISS around this area.....fortunately we have been hit a few times!!
Quoting IKE:
I live in NW Florida. Since May 15th I've had .34 inches of rain.

Then we're doing a little better here in Naples; since May 1st, we've had 2.64"--though more than half of that came in one quick storm back in the second week of May. But even with that relative deluge, since May 1st, we are down 7.15", and well over one foot for the year.
771. IKE
I've got a 50% chance of rain the next several days.

Good morning to everyone.

168 hour 6Z GFS offers hope....


big tropical wave!!
Great Weather News from Texas, I have received almost 2 inches of rain overnight and it is 69 degrees at 6 am. I have lived in my new home for about 3 1/2 years and it has been mostly dry to very dry during that time except when we have received good tropical rains. Almost every front came thru earlier in the year dry which is unusual. People say this drought has only lasted 5 to 6 months? Not true in the past 5 years we have had 1 wet year surrounded by years way below average or half the yearly average. Good morning and have a great day! I am located south of Austin.
774. IKE
00Z NOGAPS @ 144 hours....


775. IKE
5 day QPF....


Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
big tropical wave!!
Shear off nothing to be concern about.
777. MahFL
bohonkweatherman, glad you got some rain. Here in NE Fl they say we sould get rain Thur though Sun, then the normal summertime rain pattern should kick in.
flashed on the news yesterday 2 florida firefighters died while fighting a fire where was it? dry palmeto and pine needles are like ammo
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I'm very happy for those areas in my state that are getting rain! Yes! Now hoping they sweep through us all.

Quoting MahFL:
bohonkweatherman, glad you got some rain. Here in NE Fl they say we sould get rain Thur though Sun, then the normal summertime rain pattern should kick in.
Thank you, I think by the end of Summer there will be alot of tropical rains for quite a few people. I almost forgot what lightning looks like, I can count the number of times i have seen lightning at night on 1 hand the past 1 to 2 years.
Quoting islander101010:
flashed on the news yesterday 2 florida firefighters died while fighting a fire where was it? dry palmeto and pine needles are like ammo
Wildland Firefighters at the Blue Ribbon fire.Josh Burch and Brett Fulton
If my experience thus far is typical, updating to Firefox 5 is well worth your time.
Seems to be noticeably faster downloading pages both here and at other sites.
Plus you can use your privacy settings to opt out of being tracked by commercial info-gatherers.
783. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Good Morning.
It has been coming down Hard since about midnight here at 11n 61w.
A little over an inch and a quarter.
More coming.....
Morning.





Good morning to all.

Good weather with warm temperatures will be the rule here. It looks like our friends pottery and DDR are getting the bulk of the wave moving thru the SE Caribbean.
Fujiwhara effect in effect for Seven and Haima.
From Houston forecast discussion:

Houston has recorded five consecutive mornings with low
temperatures at or above 81 degrees. This is a new record for the city. The previous record was three consecutive mornings and occurred on July 28...29 and 30th 2009. The low temperature has been 81 degrees or warmer 50 times in city history with 23 of these occurrences since June of 2009.
When I left the house in far northwest Harris county at 5:30 AM, there were some very dark clouds, lightning and a stiff cold wind. I think I may get the first significant rain I have had in well over six months. The radar looks good for it.

The truck windows are closed this time, but the lawn mower is out in the yard where I busted a drive pulley last night. It needed a wash anyway.
Good Morning..........I see more rain for Texas this morning which is a good thing and more rain a coming for the Gulf States.......Little odd to see so much moisture down there also headed towards the Gulf after a few weeks of blistering heat....Looks like a general pattern change heading into the Summer and lots of potential for a few "home grown" storms before the CV season in August as sheer levels start to drop around the Gulf in earnest going into July.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
It has been coming down Hard since about midnight here at 11n 61w.
A little over an inch and a quarter.
More coming.....
Finally got some rain at the house. One solid inch. T-waves show up nice here. big wave off of Africa. The NAM has a strong disturbance in Western Caribbean in 84 hours.
60% chance of rain here Thurs - Sat according to Bay News 9. Hope they're right.

In the last two weeks there's been 4 or 5 times where I've had a few drops of rain on the car on the way home. Lasted about 20 seconds each time.
Quoting bappit:
From Houston forecast discussion:

Houston has recorded five consecutive mornings with low
temperatures at or above 81 degrees. This is a new record for the city. The previous record was three consecutive mornings and occurred on July 28...29 and 30th 2009. The low temperature has been 81 degrees or warmer 50 times in city history with 23 of these occurrences since June of 2009.

Those are some remarkable stats. For what it's worth, after about a two- or three-day respite, the whole state will be back to where it has been for the past several weeks: hot and dry.

Sorry, Texans...
Well, color me happy! Live just northwest of Houston. Water falling from the sky! Imagine that! My 6 month old lab puppy doesn't know what's going on! Strange noises coming from outside. Ha. She keeps looking out the window.
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


0.0.0. continues
The low has a fall like appearance to it...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


0.0.0. continues
Morning Keep..That is a big storm off the Philippines...
ENSO state remains neutral over the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 22 June

Climate indicators of ENSO remain at near normal levels, with neutral conditions now firmly established in the tropical Pacific. The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO suggest neutral conditions are likely to continue into late 2011.
Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO including the trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the date-line and ocean temperatures have been at near normal levels for the last month after rapidly transitioning away from the La Niña conditions that had been present for the previous 9−12 months.

The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is currently neutral. A weakly positive IOD event has been forecast to develop during winter. In the past, positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during winter and spring.

Link
Surprised there is no interest in the tropical wave yet.
Some rain for Texas. And some rain for areas that definitely dont need it on da CMC..
This is interesting...Look at the path of heavy precip extending from the Caribbean to the northern gulf coast.
Quoting hydrus:
Morning Keep..That is a big storm off the Philippines...
morning here is forecast reasoning fro JTWC

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION (800NM) WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
RELATIVELY CONVECTION SPARSE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED, BUT HAS YET TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC. OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG, AS EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH A CROSS EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST. A 212127Z
SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED
AND DOES NOT HAVE THE SMOOTH APPEARANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
INFLOW PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
PGTW DVORAK FIX.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW. ORGANIZATION OF A LARGE SYSTEM TAKES LONGER THAN THAT OF A
SMALLER SYSTEM, THE TUTT TO THE EAST IS STARTING TO FILL, AND AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE MIDLATITUDE REGIME WILL SUPPRESS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM ROUDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN NEAR TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 07W WILL STEER ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN CHINA BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE YELLOW SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS PULLING THE SYSTEM OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. ECMWF IS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER PULLING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF TAIWAN INTO SOUTHERN
CHINA. THE DISCREPANCY STEMS FROM AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP
OVER MONGOLIA AND MANCHURIA, CHINA. THE MODELS THAT HOLD THE PATTERN
LONGER AND MAINTAIN THE STR INTEGRITY (ECMWF) HAVE 07W TRACKING
FURTHER WEST, AND MODELS THAT ARE BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN SOONER
(NOGAPS) HAVE THE SYSTEM RECURVING FASTER. MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HAS THE TENDENCY TO MOVE BLOCKING PATTERNS OUT TOO FAST, SO THIS
FORECAST FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK NEAR UKMET, JGSM AND ECMWF.//
NNNN

And as always, the NOGAPS model has some kind of system forming...
Meh.
A blob appearing north of Hispanola from the convection that moved over Haiti last night.
Quoting islander101010:
flashed on the news yesterday 2 florida firefighters died while fighting a fire where was it? dry palmeto and pine needles are like ammo





Quoting emcf30:
Sad news out of Florida today.

JASPER, Fla. -- Two firefighters were killed Monday while battling a brush fire in Hamilton County.

Officials from the Florida Division of Forestry said two other firefighters suffered from smoke- and heat-related injuries. They were treated and released from hospitals in Lake City and Gainesville.

The north Florida fire started June 16 and had been declared contained, but dry conditions caused it to flare up again Monday.

"My thoughts and prayers go out to the families and loved ones of the two courageous men who sacrificed their lives for the safety of others," said Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. "We can rebuild the structures and restore the land, but the lives of these two heroes can never be replaced."

Firefighters have battled more than 1,500 wildfires in the state since May 1.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


0.0.0. continues
China has its share of flooding problems without being whacked with that behemoth..NOGAPS accum. precip..
787 Vincent4989 "Fujiwhara effect in effect for Seven and Haima."

Extremely unlikely. Both have relatively weak windfields and are separated by ~1690kilometres (~1050miles).
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
A blob appearing north of Hispanola from the convection that moved over Haiti last night.
Probably from divergent flow from the low to the north..
GFS 6z 180 hours.


NOGAPS 00z 144 hours.


ECMWF 00z 168 hours.. finally starting to show something in the BOC.
Great news for Texas:





812. MahFL
Hey I see spin north of Hispaniola.....
813. MahFL
cchs, well some small part of TX......
Getting Ready for the Next Big Solar Storm.

Link

The solar cycle of 1859 (Solar Cycle 10) was typical of 19th century solar cycles--that is to say, weak. Solar cycles of the 19th century were far below average compared to the intense solar cycles of the Space Age. Solar Cycle 24, in progress now, is a throw-back, expected to be similar in sunspot count to Solar Cycle 10.
Quoting aspectre:
787 Vincent4989 "Fujiwhara effect in effect for Seven and Haima."

Extremely unlikely. Both have relatively weak windfields and are separated by ~1690kilometres (~1050miles).

Seven is very big and is touching Haima. likely.
Cchs, we got an inch out of that in San Antonio. We will take it as that is the only rain we have had since February. Or was it January? It has been so long it is hard to remember. Very refreshing to say the least!
817. jpsb
Quoting JamesSA:
Cchs, we got an inch out of that in San Antonio. We will take it as that is the only rain we have had since February. Or was it January? It has been so long it is hard to remember. Very refreshing to say the least!
Fingered crossed here in the Galveston bay area, this looks like our best chance for rain in a very long time.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Great news for Texas:





funny, i was just looking at those very stations just before popping on here for the day... made me smile :)
happy for at the least that portion of Texas, hope the same for the rest of the SW!!
819. Jax82
Lots of moisture riding up into Texas, its good to see color on the radar!



Getting nervous for the area SW of Galveston Bay, outflow boundary coming in weak echoes
Quoting RitaEvac:
Getting nervous for the area SW of Galveston Bay, outflow boundary coming in weak echoes
me to!!
Good Morning all.

Finally getting out reliable models to jump on board with potential development in the Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.

00Z ECMWF @ 144HR:



Shows an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.

00Z NOGAPS @ 144HR:



Tropical Depression/Arlene affecting the Yucatan.

06Z GFS @ 144HR:



Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm Arlene in the Gulf of Mexico.

If we can get the CMC to jump on board with development, and we can get them to show development consistency, we may indeed have a storm form at the end of this month, ending the 0-0-0. All of the models above show development by 144HR, which is next Tuesday.
Good morning everyone. Well, I had to pull up the Houston-Galvesston radar and watch those lovely colors spread into Texas. I haven't seen rain in so long, I have to live vicariously through someone else's radar.LOL Sure is nice to see someone getting much needed rain. I noticed that blob off DR this morning. So are we all so in need of entertainment that we watch blobs to see if they start spinning? I guess this is the blob watch until an official Twave happens.
not good at all!! i do not like where the big high is!! that will keep hurricane from going out to sea..
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
me to!!


What does that mean??? I am just SW of Galveston Bay
823. The CMC has been showing development, yesterday it showed the low down to 998 mb, but dropped it this run. ECMWF isn't really onboard yet, just has a weak area of low pressure.
As usual, the rain fizzles as it approaches Houston/Galveston area. That's a sure sign were gonna get rocked by a hurricane later on
829. jpsb
Quoting RitaEvac:
Getting nervous for the area SW of Galveston Bay, outflow boundary coming in weak echoes
San Leon here, lots of clouds and a nice cool wind but no rain yet. Looking accross the bay I can see rain to the north and west so I am not giving up yet.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Getting nervous for the area SW of Galveston Bay, outflow boundary coming in weak echoes


Sorry, meant to quote this
It's cloudy here, and you can see that on satellite, but it is also very smoky...which you can see on satellite.

Quoting RitaEvac:
As usual, the rain fizzles as it approaches Houston/Galveston area. That's a sure sign were gonna get rocked by a hurricane later on

Its coming, don't worry.

Been raining in Tomball since about 6am, and its STILL raining. Official gauge near Tomball has 1.24". Gauge nearest my house has 0.67", and its still coming down according to a neighbor.
Quoting SETexas74:


Sorry, meant to quote this


It's the leading edge of thunderstorms downdrafts, accompanied by strong winds, a temperature drop, and a spike in pressure. It can also sometimes mean that the storm is being ripped apart.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
823. The CMC has been showing development, yesterday it showed the low down to 998 mb, but dropped it this run. ECMWF isn't really onboard yet, just has a weak area of low pressure.


Agreed with the Euro - I couldn't really detect much of a low pressure system in the Bay.
usual cmc
Quoting RitaEvac:
As usual, the rain fizzles as it approaches Houston/Galveston area. That's a sure sign were gonna get rocked by a hurricane later on


sure sign?
It will be interesting to see if we can get a warm eddy to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. There seems to be a hint of one near 87 27N.

Quoting jeffs713:

Its coming, don't worry.

Been raining in Tomball since about 6am, and its STILL raining. Official gauge near Tomball has 1.24". Gauge nearest my house has 0.67", and its still coming down according to a neighbor.


Oh, thanks Jeff for helping me feel better, lol, it's spotty on radar, not the solid shield like yall got west and NW of Houston. Wish a cell would blow up the over galveston county area and sit.
839. SLU
I know this in the next 2 light years but this shows that the overall pattern may get more conducive in early July.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
First Footage Emerges Of Eritrean Volcanic Eruption

from Irish Weather Online… of course ;)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Oh, thanks Jeff for helping me feel better, lol, it's spotty on radar, not the solid shield like yall got west and NW of Houston. Wish a cell would blow up the over galveston county area and sit.
seems some clouds forming just offshore tampico leftover from beatris crashing into the w. mex. coast might help you get wet
Quoting jeffs713:

Its coming, don't worry.

Been raining in Tomball since about 6am, and its STILL raining. Official gauge near Tomball has 1.24". Gauge nearest my house has 0.67", and its still coming down according to a neighbor.


Yeh? Like when? We're still waiting down here. I was hoping for a little more than a few sprinkles on top of the picnic table. ;-(
I'm in League City, West of 45. Pouring here. FINALLY!!!!
West Pacific
07W MEARI


06W HAIMA

One year ago - Soon to be Alex



One year ago - Hurricane Celia and soon to be Darby



Celia at 105 mph, Soon to be Darby at 70%.
YOIKS....
It's coming down REAL hard here. 11n 61w.
This looks like floods.........
847. afj3
Both GFS and NOGAPS are showing something brewing in the Gulf in a few days. Since the GFS is not exactly an early adopter, I find this interesting. Anybody? Anybody?
848. jpsb
Quoting shoreacres:


Yeh? Like when? We're still waiting down here. I was hoping for a little more than a few sprinkles on top of the picnic table. ;-(
Just walked out into the front yard to have a look at shore acres, yall got some nice dark clouds above you. Got a sprinkle here, guess that is better then nothing. Local radio said rain will let up noonish, well that's just a couple of hours from now and NO RAIN YET! This sucks I can see the rain right accross the bay, but nothing here. :(
Quoting afj3:
Both GFS and NOGAPS are showing something brewing in the Gulf in a few days. Since the GFS is not exactly an early adopter, I find this interesting. Anybody? Anybody?

Most likely picking up on this wave around 55-60W
Looking at the WV loops, there is a lot to it.
Quoting ihatejunebugs:
I'm in League City, West of 45. Pouring here. FINALLY!!!!


See it on radar, I'm near Bay Colony, but work somewhere else
Quoting RitaEvac:
Getting nervous for the area SW of Galveston Bay, outflow boundary coming in weak echoes


Why do you say that Rita
wen golb
NEW BLOG!!!
851, look at radar
Has anyone looked at the info on Dutchsinse's YouTube channel. He looks into a lot of wx anomalies and has forecasted with over an 80% accuracy rating on tornado landfalls and extreme wx within 20 miles 24-48 hrs out. Kind of scary stuff he is talking about, IE. HAARP and weather modification.
Intresting setup for GOMEX

Link
Quoting Aquaimage13:
Has anyone looked at the info on Dutchsinse's YouTube channel. He looks into a lot of wx anomalies and has forecasted with over an 80% accuracy rating on tornado landfalls and extreme wx within 20 miles 24-48 hrs out. Kind of scary stuff he is talking about, IE. HAARP and weather modification.

Me and him got in a rather large fight about japans nuclear disaster. He was trying to scare people into believing that the radition from the plant was gona get to the US and to start causing damage. He also was giving false information about the palnt was a full core melt down when it was only a partial meltdown. Stuff that really pissed me off though was i was getting gerneral support from the other viewers via comment and ups, he then procceded to delete all my comments of his false and panic indusing info. So i think its best if you do not promote him.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Me and him got in a rather large fight about japans nuclear disaster. He was trying to scare people into believing that the radition from the plant was gona get to the US and to start causing damage. He also was giving false information about the palnt was a full core melt down when it was only a partial meltdown. Stuff that really pissed me off though was i was getting gerneral support from the other viewers via comment and ups, he then procceded to delete all my comments of his false and panic indusing info. So i think its best if you do not promote him.



Well I am sorry but it turns out that he was right about the Japan Nuclear Incedent. It is in full meltdown and has been for a while now. The Japan Gov. and our Gov were lying to us the whole time. InfoWars. com has a lot of good info about it. I think it is best to promote him, he is the one driving around the U.S. trying to help. Most of his research makes perfect sense to me once I let my "conspiracy" guard down and read into it. I wonder why they are forcing all the Japanese children to wear radiation detectors everywhere they go now. That is strange in a partial meltdown is it not?
"2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?”

Since when did “Extreme” become a valid scientific measurement??