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Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Flood Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting stormchaser19:


Triple integrals,is hard bro.(xyz)3 Variables,almost takes 2 page resolve one!!!Lol
These problems would take me 4 pages to solve a single one. Annoying. At least I can say I passed half of AP Calculus BC. College should be easier as I'm already familiar with it.


Tornado rips through suburb of Broken Arrow, Oklahoma. Damage to homes and school.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
These problems would take me 4 pages to solve a single one. Annoying. At least I can say I passed half of AP Calculus BC. College should be easier as I'm already familiar with it.


I'm little confused here in DR in University we have Calculus I,II,III and IV, how are the names in US?
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah, but GFS is already showing the storm in the time lapse that we call ''acceptable''


!I think GFS is not kidding this time!!


We know something could happen...just need a few days since this isn't suppose to get to TS strength(model wise) till Tues or Weds. Sunday we will have a better idea. Right now there will be moisture, all we know so far. :) would love to see a early season TS in the GOM
Quoting stormchaser19:


I'm little confused here in DR in University we have Calculus I,II,III and IV, how are the names in US?


They are the same at the college level.

Blue took something called AP or Advanced Placement. They are college readiness courses that give high schoolers an in-depth look at college courses, material, and work-loads. He took Calc BC, which is the harder version of the two versions. So, he has had experiences with Calcs I, II, and III.

College Board here in the U.S. runs the AP program.

Wiki

College Board
Space Weather ‏@spaceweather
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Begin:May 24 1555 UTC Yesterday Max 2MeV Flux: 30600 pfu
Quoting Astrometeor:


They are the same at the college level.

Blue took something called AP or Advanced Placement. They are college readiness courses that give high schoolers an in-depth look at college courses, material, and work-loads. He took Calc BC, which is the harder version of the two versions. So, he has had experiences with Calcs I, II, and III.

College Board here in the U.S. runs the AP program.


OK, I'm BC because I took all 4,only the engineers here take 4 calculus!!! The others like
business administration takes only 1
Quoting stormchaser19:


I'm little confused here in DR in University we have Calculus I,II,III and IV, how are the names in US?
Let me make it easy for you.

In high school, some students (including me) would prepare ourselves by taking AP classes (Advanced Placement) so we can be more familiar with college lessons, work load, etc while in high school. At the end of either half year or year long course, we take an AP exam. If we scores a 3 out of 5, we get college credits while still in high school. By getting college credits, we can skip the basic classes to high level classes as soon as you get in college. I took 5 AP classes in high school (Statistics, Earth and Environmental, Physics B, Calculus BC, and US History). These courses are really hard and I only passed AP US History for college credits. In AP Calculus BC class, we covered Calculus I, II, and III so I should be familiar with them when I go to college next year.

Since I didn't take AP Calculus BC exam because I dropped out halfway in year long course, I got to take Calculus I, II, and III in college. Questions?
Quoting stormchaser19:


OK, I'm BC because I took all 4,only the engineers here take 4 calculus!!! The others like
business administration takes only 1


Calculus BC is high school class that cover the topics discussed in Cal. I, II, and III. You never took that class because that wasn't available in DR.

Cal. I, II, and III are college classes you took, which is the same thing as Calculus BC in the lower level.

EDIT: DARN TYPOS
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let me make it easy for you.

In high school, some students (including me) would prepare ourselves by taking AP classes (Advanced Placement) so we can be more familiar with college lessons, work load, etc while in high school. At the end of either half year or year long course, we take an AP exam. If we scores a 3 out of 5, we get college credits while still in high school. By getting college credits, we can skip the basic classes to high level classes as soon as you get in college. I took 5 AP classes in high school (Statistics, Earth and Environmental, Physics B, Calculus BC, and US History). These courses are really hard and I only passed AP US History for college credits. In AP Calculus BC class, we covered Calculus I, II, and III so I should be familiar with them when I go to college next year.

Since I didn't take AP Calculus BC because I dropped out halfway in year long course, I got to take Calculus I, II, and III in college. Questions?

Ohh,Ok Lol, you are at the University?
Quoting stormchaser19:

Ohh,Ok Lol, you are at the University?
Next year, I'm going to university.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Looking over Bennington tornado information on NWS page, it appears that only damage up to EF3 is found in the path but DOW suggested EF4+ winds so they only went up one rating. No support for EF5. Maybe either DOW are overestimating the winds OR damage scale need to be adjusted again.


The DOW measured 247 mph winds at the base of the tornado and there is mention of a **POSSIBLE** upgrade to EF5 status over the next week or so while they go over the data
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Next year, I'm going to university.


Oh,now I understand!!! if you choose some engineering career, you are going to take the rest of the calculus right?
My older brother took at least 10 APs when in high school. This got him out of a whole semester in college, which he used as a paid internship a business in Rhode Island. So, there are really good awards for getting good grades in school.
Why hello there.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HOWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1215 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNTAIN VIEW...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...PEACE VALLEY...POMONA AND WHITE CHURCH.
CMC has a monster storm in 00z run.....
Quoting stormchaser19:


Oh,now I understand!!! if you choose some engineering career, you are going to take the rest of the calculus right?
I'm choosing meteorology career. I still got to take 4 Calculus classes at UNCA (along with few more math classes).
Quoting stormchaser19:


Oh,now I understand!!! if you choose some engineering career, you are going to take the rest of the calculus right?


If a student here in the U.S. wanted to become an engineer, they would have to take all of the calc classes along with some physics. That would get them a degree, but wouldn't make them an engineer. That takes 4-6 years of "apprenticeship" and several large, whole-day tests to get the title of engineer, depending on your field of study.
1022. Dakster
Western Hemisphere getting its MoJO soon.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm choosing meteorology career. I still got to take 4 Calculus classes at UNCA (along with few more math classes).


Good for you in US can choose meteorology, that career doesn't exist here....Thats why i'm going to graduate of Civil engineer in september...But i really love the meteorology!!!!:)
1024. Dakster
StormChaser19 - Where is 'here'?
Quoting stormchaser19:


Good for you in US can choose meteorology, that career doesn't exist here....Thats why i'm going to graduate of Civil engineer in september...But i really love the meteorology!!!!:)
Well, good luck to you on your career! My dad is a very successful engineer so I know how hard they works to get where they are. Total respect to you!
Quoting Dakster:
StormChaser19 - Where is 'here'?
D.R.
Quoting Dakster:
StormChaser19 - Where is 'here'?


Dominican Republic.......Here is the link of my university
Link
1028. Dakster
Very good.

Thanks.
This is the Pensum of Civil Engeenier carrer, materials!!!!Link
oooopppppssss
Good night blog, 1 am here.

Have school work to do tomorrow, I am taking a class called Personal Finance online this summer, course is required by state law for graduation, sigh.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HOWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CENTRAL SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1249 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR
HUTTON VALLEY WITH THIS STORM.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEY SPRING...BIRCH TREE...EMINENCE...MONTIER...MOUNTAIN VIEW...
TERESITA...WEST EMINENCE AND WINONA.
I'm only still up because Cardinals' game is not over (rain delay). Because it's 9th inning and both Cardinals and Royals do not have a makeup date, they got to finish it tonight. Cardinals is already losing 4-2 so why bother? I'm going to bed.
Quoting Tazmanian:




he seen nothing 1st



i saw it 1st
We all know Grothar saw everything first... he saw that blob the first 7 times it cycled through the ATL, and once before there WAS an ATL...

;o)

Quoting KoritheMan:


I never understood why so many people actually seem to enjoy it. Unless they're strongly masochistic or something...
Math is just another language to me... figure out the rules and you can interpret anything. That and the "puzzle" aspect of it always get me... figuring out the key to unlock meaning has always been an engaging pastime for me.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Think my avatar will be back tomorrow?
Prolly went on a secret mission...

1038. Dakster
Grothar saw it as a sun shower on the other side of the Earth...

And you know what - he was right.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 310544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
13N19W TO 09N21W TO 06N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N26W TO 07N38W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 11W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 06W-11W...AND FROM
05N-08N BETWEEN 24W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-10N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH
AXIS FROM 27N94W TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. THIS
TROUGHING...WHILE PRODUCING INSIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THE
SURFACE...IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STEERING FOR THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA WHICH IS ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED
IN THE SW GULF NEAR 19N94W. AS THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N92W TO 23N90W.
THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 24N BETWEEN 87W-94W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF IS
UNDER WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY QUIETER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SURFACE RIDGING IS ANALYZED FROM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA COAST FROM 25N83W TO 29N94W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
OVERALL...THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED LARGELY OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC WILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING E-SE WINDS. BY SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST AND SLOWLY SKIRT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER IN THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N87W AND THE OTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N65W. THIS RESULTS IN AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED MOIST E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC...AREAS OF CONVECTION PERSIST THIS EVENING. ONE SUCH
AREA IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 76W-
82W. OTHERWISE...OTHER AREAS REMAIN AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 65W. FINALLY...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 12N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-87W. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OF E-SE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS ALONG 74W. THE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...LINGERING SUPPORTING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 32N73W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 20N ALONG
73W. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS FOUND LARGELY ABOVE
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...LIFTING DYNAMICS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 18N-34N BETWEEN 65W-76W.
OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE W OF 60W WITH SUSTAINED E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
10-20 KT. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST...BRIDGING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED RIDGE AND A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC...IS A FRONTAL TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 33N45W TO 31N47W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 31N52W TO 26N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N46W TO 26N57W. FINALLY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED
N OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

I took AP Physics (B and C) as well as Calc BC and good good grades on the AP tests, so my first semester of college I got to take meteorology classes right away. And now I will be able to intern at the NWS through a program at my school as a sophomore. APs help a lot.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I took AP Physics (B and C) as well as Calc BC and good good grades on the AP tests, so my first semester of college I got to take meteorology classes right away. And now I will be able to intern at the NWS through a program at my school as a sophomore. APs help a lot.
Nice to know that :) That's why I'm took 5 AP classes in high school. I did very well during regular classes, but didn't do so well on exams.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Nice to know that :) That's why I'm took 5 AP classes in high school. I did very well during regular classes, but didn't do so well on exams.

The unfortunate part about AP's is that it all comes down to one test and if you are bad at tests or maybe just that particular test then you don't get credit.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

The unfortunate part about AP's is that it all comes down to one test and if you are bad at tests or maybe just that particular test then you don't get credit.
Well, I just find the tests really difficult for me. At least I passed AP US History so I got some college credits in my belt plus I'm familiar with Calculus I, II, and III now.
1044. JLPR2
If it were August people would be freaking out. xD

1045. TXCWC
0Z Euro and 0Z GFS look very similar with a developing low just off the Yucatan in the Southern Gulf in 6 days...interesting to see how rest of this Euro run looks

OZ Euro


OZ GFS
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, I just find the tests really difficult for me. At least I passed AP US History so I got some college credits in my belt plus I'm familiar with Calculus I, II, and III now.



Quoting TXCWC:
0Z Euro and 0Z GFS look very similar with a developing low just off the Yucatan in the Southern Gulf in 6 days...interesting to see how rest of this Euro run looks

OZ Euro


OZ GFS



At least you got credits and Calculus can be very hard but its very important I wish I could take calc 3 again (with a better professor)

Is the GFS developing a TS east of the Antilles? Its way to early for that
1047. JLPR2
Quoting all4hurricanes:


Is the GFS developing a TS east of the Antilles? Its way to early for that


Seems like a short lived TD, the lowest it goes is 1009mb and apparently it forms from the disturbance I posted the sat picture. But I really doubt it materializes. Wind shear isn't nice in the CATL and the EURO says no.
Quoting JLPR2:


Seems like a short lived TD, the lowest it goes is 1009mb and apparently it forms from the disturbance I posted the sat picture. But I really doubt it materializes. Wind shear isn't nice in the CATL and the EURO says no.

What do the models have the wave doing once it reaches the Western Caribbean?
1050. TXCWC
OZ Euro holds with what it was saying with the 12Z run earlier yesterday - both GFS and Euro currently saying minimal tropical storm somewhere along Eastern Gulf coast

12Z run


latest 0Z run


1051. JLPR2
Quoting all4hurricanes:

What do the models have the wave doing once it reaches the Western Caribbean?


If we go with the GFS it doesn't reach it, moves NE of the Lesser Antilles and I cant discern it once it moves north of Puerto Rico.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
8:30 AM IST May 31 2013
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, the depression over Gangetic, West Bengal and neighborhood moved north northwestward with about the speed of 5 knots during the past 12 hours and now lays over Jharkhand, India and neighborhood near 24.0N 87.0E, or about 80 km north of Bankura, West Bengal.

The system is likely to move north northwestward and weaken into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
11:30 AM IST May 31 2013
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, the depression over Jharkhand, India and neighborhood moved northwards with about the speed of 5 knots during the past 12 hours and now lays near 24.5N 87.5E, about 80 km south of Bhagalpur, India.

The system would move northwards and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.
1054. IKE
Crown Weather on tropical development next week in the GOM......http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7367
Dangerous

INITIAL DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE MODES DURING
AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFER HAIL AOA 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER IN SOME
LOCALES...AMIDST EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S F DEW POINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DEEPLY
BUOYANT PROFILE WITH MLCAPE 4000-5500 J/KG...AMIDST 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE
. DISCRETE PROPAGATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
TIME...SWWD ALONG BOUNDARY TO SFC LOW...EXTENDING INTO LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING 31/23Z-01/03Z
TIME FRAME. SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD YIELD BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OK WARM SECTOR...COMBINING WITH INCREASING
1-2 KM AGL FLOW AROUND 00Z-03Z TO INCREASE BOTH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES 300-500 J/KG
(seems like a typo, they mean m^2/ s^2) ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE INFLOW PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED.



watch out okc and norman
1056. IKE

6Z GFS @ 81 hours.....
1057. IKE
6Z GFS @ 126 hours....
1058. IKE
And @ 177 hours.....
Good morning. Here's the SPC's tornado outlook for today:

Quoting IKE:
Crown Weather on tropical development next week in the GOM......http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7367


He's really on board with a GOM storm next week. We are inside a week so model consensus and consistency has my attention.
1061. IKE
6Z GFS @ 228 hours...similar to the 00Z ECMWF....
Quoting IKE:
And @ 177 hours.....
Morning IKE, Long time how have you been? lots of rain coming for Florida
Hi Ike. Good to see you.
1064. IKE
Been doing good. Good morning to all.....

Joe Bastardi on twitter.....ECMWF taking seasons first tropical threat into central gulf coast nxt weekend. In line with MJO ideas and
worries
Morning all.

The GFS longrange had something showing for next week for quite a while. The system was supposed to originate in the SW CAR, but given the low pressure left by Barbara's entry into the basin, I'd expect something more likely in BoC, especially if shear values lower as has been forecast.
BTW, what's up with Largo? I haven't seen him in here in the a.m. for a few days....
1067. Torito
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what's up with Largo? I haven't seen him in here in the a.m. for a few days....


He... left.

Norton tricked him into thinking this site was unsafe, i believe. it was glitched and said that this site had a virus like 3 weeks ago.

It was one of the ads leading people to a virus(which is fixed now) that caused that to happen.
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what's up with Largo? I haven't seen him in here in the a.m. for a few days....


He quit... something about this site giving him viruses
1069. Torito
TR-BARBARA

1070. ncstorm
Good Morning

00z Euro..
216 hours




00z CMC
132 hours






Good morning everyone!

Good evening Aussie!
1072. Torito
Someone keep an eye on the spot west of africa, it keeps getting better for potential development.



Ex Barbara still firing off some convection around her LLC
1074. Torito
ill be back later...
1075. ncstorm
Quoting Torito:
Someone keep an eye on the spot west of africa, it keeps getting better for potential development.



Grothar is surely missing..We need this designated..:)

Looks like the models have come into better agreement regarding the time of cyclogenesis and track, though the GFS develops it by 78 hours in the BoC.
Moderate risk... Again!




Tornado and Hail threat





Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the models have come into better agreement regarding the time of cyclogenesis and track, though the GFS develops it by 78 hours in the BoC.


A track into the FL Panhandle is worst case scenario track for the FL Penisula as several days of flooding rains and a very high tornado potential will exist. Remember TS Debby? This would be almost an identical track however a track toward the FL Big Bend is a big possibility as well.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the models have come into better agreement regarding the time of cyclogenesis and track, though the GFS develops it by 78 hours in the BoC.


Wouldnt mind either of the GFS, EURO, or CMC coming true. Would like to have some rain here
1080. ncstorm
we got a low with that blob off Africa..

Quoting WDEmobmet:


Wouldnt mind either of the GFS, EURO, or CMC coming true. Would like to have some rain here


Yeah but most if not all the rain will be at the center and east. a Track toward Panama City, FL would mean very hot and dry weather for you.


Big Bend
Storm cat's blog says a cat1 heading to New Orleans
Quoting Torito:


He... left.

Norton tricked him into thinking this site was unsafe, i believe. it was glitched and said that this site had a virus like 3 weeks ago.

It was one of the ads leading people to a virus(which is fixed now) that caused that to happen.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


He quit... something about this site giving him viruses
Well, that's ... sad. I have the no-ads subscription, so I rarely get bugged by them. I hope he gets the message that it's safe... he was a worthy fellow-traveler...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but most if not all the rain will be at the center and east. a Track toward Panama City, FL would mean very hot and dry weather for you.


Very true, which is why I need a LA MS landfall :)

Like this

Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
Storm cat's blog says a cat1 heading to New Orleans


Are you talking about the ole WU blogger Storm
I gotta get on the road. It's a late morning for me, but I don't actually want to be LATE.... lol

I'll check in later if possible.

We're still getting some showers here, but ... I think I see the sun outside!!!!

Happy Friday, morning and evening, to all.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta get on the road. It's a late morning for me, but I don't actually want to be LATE.... lol

I'll check in later if possible.

We're still getting some showers here, but ... I think I see the sun outside!!!!

Happy Friday, morning and evening, to all.


Safe travels Baha
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Are you talking about the ole WU blogger Storm
....yep ole storm cat
seems as if barbara should regenerate somewhat after staying stationary for the next 3-5 days.
Quoting ncstorm:
we got a low with that blob off Africa..



What is the earliest a CV wave turned into a TS or hurricane? Anybody know the answer?
1092. ncstorm


I see the models are agreeing on a consensus and not moving the time back and being sloppy on where the storm will form unlike the last few weeks where some would show the caribbean others would show the BOC or the east side of Florida.Look out for consistency as well.Surprisingly the Euro is being consistent so far on what will happen let's see if that keeps up.Don't care for tornado's so I would be happy on something tropical to track for a change that's not headed for my house(Sandy)sorry Gulf coast.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


What is the earliest a CV wave turned into a TS or hurricane? Anybody know the answer?


Bertha
1095. pottery

I have been reading some studies on the influence of SAL on tropical storm formation. Interesting stuff.
This one is the most comprehensive, in my view.
Thanks to PATRAP for the links.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009 MWR3135.1
bertha eventually made landfall as a strong cat 1 in s.brevard county florida
Good Morning All,

Local met says wind shear in BOC to high for Barbara to regenerate. Is the shear expected to relax so there would be a possibility?
Good morning IKE!
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Bertha


Thank you but which Bertha? There have been six Bertha's over the years

Also, Good Morning IKE. Good to see you!
Quoting flhurricanesurvivor:
Good Morning All,

Local met says wind shear in BOC to high for Barbara to regenerate. Is the shear expected to relax so there would be a possibility?
It is forecast to eventually slack off I think by late Sunday or Monday to allow some sort of storm to form.
IKE is back from the dead. Good to see you buddy!
Quoting FtMyersgal:


What is the earliest a CV wave turned into a TS or hurricane? Anybody know the answer?


End of June 1995. 6/28/95 I believe.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Thank you but which Bertha? There have been six Bertha's over the years

Also, Good Morning IKE. Good to see you!


1996?
Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
Storm cat's blog says a cat1 heading to New Orleans

I'm not sure which blog of his you read but his latest blog says 3 models that go out far enough in time…the GFS, ECMWF, and the CMC GGEM, indicated a system from a weak TD to a Low End TS. The GFS and GGEM both show a Florida solution at the moment, while the ECMWF indicates a solution toward the NOLA area. I will be monitoring this much closer as we get nearer that time period of between June 05-09.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
IKE is back from the dead. Good to see you buddy!


I don't see ye ole IKE
Wet forecast for Orlando!
Good Morning. 13 Hours and 48 minutes to the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Don't get overly excited; an average of 1.7 storms in the Atlantic Basin over the next 60 days no matter what the models indicate as they flip flop over the next two months............. :)
Quoting AussieStorm:


I don't see ya ole IKE


Look at the last page of comments.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


1996?


WDE you win. Link from NHC

Link
Quoting FtMyersgal:


WDE you win. Link from NHC

Link


HHHHHeeeeyyyyy!!!. But what do i win?
Good morning everybody! Tomorrow's the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2013! :D

Anyways, there's once again a moderate risk for severe weather for OKC. They just can't catch a break...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. 15 Hours and 47 minutes to the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Don't get overly excited; an average of 1.7 storms in the Atlantic Basin over the next 60 days no matter what the models indicate as they flip flop over the next two months............. :)


Half of the first named storms occur after July 10, so there's a 50/50 chance we'll wait more than 40 days for the first one.
IKE you should say your name stands for Integrated Kinetic Energy.....
Quoting WDEmobmet:


HHHHHeeeeyyyyy!!!. But what do i win?


Genius for a day :)
GFS CMC and ECMWF seem to be trending to between houston and tampa....around new orleans or mobile.

I personally want this to come to GA and stay, bringing significant rains that would help up get through a large part of the summer.
Morning all evening Aussie. I for one am not too excited about the start of the season having lived in S FLA for the last 54 years.
still need rain to fall further west than it is

Large blob creating very heavy rain here in Cayman this hour, continued all last night too. Going to be a wet one today for us
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
GFS CMC and ECMWF seem to be trending to between houston and tampa....around new orleans or mobile.

I personally want this to come to GA and stay, bringing significant rains that would help up get through a large part of the summer.


No model has shown this disturbance going to Houston. All the models are between Nola and Tampa with a cluster of them around Panama City.
NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 4m
911 Emergency call systems are currently experiencing problems in Horry County and Williamsburg County, South Carolina

NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 3m
If you have an emergency in Horry Co., call 915-5100 or 915-6805. If you have an emergency in Williamsburg Co., call 843-354-9330

1121. IKE

Quoting IKE:



Welcome Back Bud..........Great to see you on.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Look at the last page of comments.


Oh yep I see ye olde IKE. hehe
And now we wait for: 1. Barbara's remnants to survive and remain over water 2. For UL Westerly shear to relax over the Gulf.
Strong wave emerging West Africa.

Today is going to be a very serious day. If you live in central Oklahoma you need to heed the warning without delay. The veer-back-veer wind profile isn't expected to pan out today, instability is explosive, dewpoints are very high, low-level shear is much higher than yesterday, SRH is in the hundreds, lapse rates are very favorable, and there are several boundary intersections across central Oklahoma for the storms to fire off.

Honestly, this is probably the most violate setup we've seen all year. The National Weather Service in Norman is forecasting the development of tornadoes that may be violent.

Again, please, please heed the warning across the Moderate risk area.
6-10 Day GFS Ensembles. Looks like a fire hose aimed at the FL Penisula. I suspect we may have some 1 to 2 foot totals from this system.

Quoting IKE:



Hi Ike! Nice to see another familiar name...

"At last the sun is shining, the clouds of blue roll by,
With flames from the dragon of darkness -
The sunlight blinds his eyes."


We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305311228
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
You beat me to it. Game on folks. Debby part 2. I suspect Debby is a sore subject for some on here. LOL!
1126. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:31 AM EDT on May 31, 2013

TA13 is absolutely correct about a potentially explosive tornado threat today. Look at the current position of the Conus jet stream today below:


Link


Right over the Mid-West and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle.
Sun is rising on 90L.

Very impressive for late May!

Quoting superpete:
Large blob creating very heavy rain here in Cayman this hour, continued all last night too. Going to be a wet one today for us

sure is a wet morning so far
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You beat me to it. Game on folks. Debby part 2. I suspect Debby is a sore subject for some on here. LOL!


I think GeorgiaStormz is still stuck on last years Euro solution for Debby as the Euro had Debby going to Houston.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
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040
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0000
201305311228
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I think it a bit too early for them to cal it should have given it another day or so
This system is going to pay me a visit tomorrow. Though there is some risk for very large hail and a few tornadoes, the most dominant risk appears to be damaging winds.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think it a bit too early for them to cal it should have given it another day or so


Maybe they do it now to get the bam models running to see how they do.
1140. icmoore
.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305311228
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,




The GFS is sending a wave across the Atlantic.
Quoting AussieStorm:





Right with Climotology.
As to the future of 90L, have to keep an eye on the hi-res visible loops over the course of the day (and over the next several hours as the sun comes up those parts for a clearer view) to see how the system reacts to the sheer just to the North. Moderate sheer of 20-30 knots ahead of it over the next 24 hours:

Link
1146. Torito
90L already?

It is not visible on NOAA?...
1147. WxLogic
Good Morning... almost there.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

sure is a wet morning so far

Good Morning WKC and everyone else, sure is good to be getting some rain and a cool down. Do you know when the Cayman Radar will be online?
It's one of those weekends in Orlando first word starts with G-- and the second word starts with D---. I was wondering what was going on. LOL
If a depression or storm were to form out of 90L over time, it would count for the Atlantic Season but as a practical matter, it would be a rare E-Pac based "cross-over" system that Dr. M referred to and not otherwise indicative of a super active June/July period for the basin.....It would be an early season anomaly.
Remember Folks -

Dying is easy...

Comedy is hard!

Check out the Hurricane Protocol 2013 hurricane guide to see how funny your plan is.


And don't forget that at least as long as Dr. Jeff's blog exists...

You'll never have to feel alone!
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?
1153. ncstorm
so we got an Invest..how bout that almanac..LOL..

June 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry weather.
4th-7th. Big thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to Carolinas. An early tropical storm is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?


BOC
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
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040
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201305311228
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Little late this year compared to the last three or four seasons.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


BOC


So it is Barb's remnants.

Then why isn't it apearing on NHC?
Quoting IKE:



Ike Good Morning, great to see ya.

sheri
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?

90L isn't on the Navy site yet.

Quoting FunnelVortex:
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?


AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB




90L is at 19.5N 95.3W so in other words its not the Africa blob
90L

1162. Levi32
Interpreted info (not that you guys can't already decode it lol). There's not much info on a newly-declared invest:

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC May 31, 2013:

Location: 19.5°N 95.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A
Quoting FunnelVortex:


So it is Barb's remnants.

Then why isn't it apearing on NHC?




you worry too march give the nhc time its all so still the off season for the two and you wont find 90L on the nhc site any ways you find it on the nvy site


Link
Quoting Levi32:
Interpreted info (not that you guys can't already decode it lol). There's not much info on a newly-declared invest:

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC May 31, 2013:

Location: 19.5°N 95.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products /tc13/ATL/90L.INVEST/ssmi/vis1km/20130531.1232.goe s-14.vis.1km.90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.19.5N.95.3W.1 00pc.jpg



this is what i have on 90L from that navy site that i ues dont ues the other navy site has its slow in updated ues the back up navy site


any way 90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb
Interestingly enough, the GFS and ECMWF are both showing a trough split by 168 - 192 hours.
Quoting Levi32:
Interpreted info (not that you guys can't already decode it lol). There's not much info on a newly-declared invest:

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC May 31, 2013:

Location: 19.5°N 95.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A


I get product not found when I go to your site. Mistake by NOAA or bad link?
Doubt we'll see a special TWO today seeing as tomorrow is the start of the operational hurricane season.
1168. pcola57
90L..Ex-Barbara..

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Sun is rising on 90L.



So what exactly do we have here then. Is that part of a trough moving in from the east south east yesterday and today that has combined with the remnant circulation of Barbara?
Quoting Tazmanian:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products /tc13/ATL/90L.INVEST/ssmi/vis1km/20130531.1232.goe s-14.vis.1km.90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.19.5N.95.3W.1 00pc.jpg



this is what i have on 90L from that navy site that i ues dont ues the other navy site has its slow in updated ues the back up navy site


any way 90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb

Same....
02E


90L
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today is going to be a very serious day. If you live in central Oklahoma you need to heed the warning without delay. The veer-back-veer wind profile isn't expected to pan out today, instability is explosive, dewpoints are very high, low-level shear is much higher than yesterday, SRH is in the hundreds, lapse rates are very favorable, and there are several boundary intersections across central Oklahoma for the storms to fire off.

Honestly, this is probably the most violate setup we've seen all year. The National Weather Service in Norman is forecasting the development of tornadoes that may be violent.

Again, please, please heed the warning across the Moderate risk area.

Levi, you're in Norman, any further insight on what the guys there are seeing?
1172. K8eCane
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi, you're in Norman, any further insight on what the guys there are seeing?



I hate this for Oklahoma. They have really been thru it.
its that going to b invest 91L DOWN THE ROAD.
Tornado risk is down to a 10%.
Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado risk is down to a 10%.



i think its been 10% all a long
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think its been 10% all a long

It was at 15% on the earlier outlook.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think its been 10% all a long


Was at 15% I think.
What exactly does veer back veer look like?
Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(1/2)Just cannot believe statement from guy to me yesterday "why haven't weather forecast/warnings improved so people don't die in tornado "

Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(2/2) previous tweet illustrates how simple and naive some view science and impossible expectations. More outreach/education essential
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today is going to be a very serious day. If you live in central Oklahoma you need to heed the warning without delay. The veer-back-veer wind profile isn't expected to pan out today, instability is explosive, dewpoints are very high, low-level shear is much higher than yesterday, SRH is in the hundreds, lapse rates are very favorable, and there are several boundary intersections across central Oklahoma for the storms to fire off.

Honestly, this is probably the most violate setup we've seen all year. The National Weather Service in Norman is forecasting the development of tornadoes that may be violent.

Again, please, please heed the warning across the Moderate risk area.


most violate setup lol

Also, quite a few times this year the SPC has gone from a 15% to a 10% at 9am
So basically 90L sits there in that BOC jumble for a while and then hopefully comes to GA with tons of rain.

At least according to the models
@NWSMARFC
On this date in 1985, the worst tornado outbreak in PA history. Over 40 confirmed tornadoes in PA, OH, NY & Canada. 65 deaths in PA.

1185. K8eCane
Quoting AussieStorm:
Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(1/2)Just cannot believe statement from guy to me yesterday "why haven't weather forecast/warnings improved so people don't die in tornado "

Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(2/2) previous tweet illustrates how simple and naive some view science and impossible expectations. More outreach/education essential


I hope marshall answered the guys statement
THE
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS OF MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 5000 J/KG IN OK APPEAR A LITTLE OVERDONE BASED ON REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO CENTRAL
OK...ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW.

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO TODAY IS FOR THE MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN MO TO SPREAD INTO ERN MO AND CENTRAL IL. NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
MO...ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION AS THE LOW
LEVELS RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT IS WEAKENING ACROSS
WRN TN. THE CAP WILL DELAY STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW INTO OK
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED BY 21-22Z ALONG OR N OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR...AND W OF I-35
ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR. THE
STRONG-EXTREME CAPE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT WILL FAVOR
THE PRODUCTION VERY LARGE HAIL /BASEBALL OR LARGER/...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS EARLIER IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION GIVEN THE NECESSARY
RECOVERY ACROSS ERN MO/IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER..
.AND RATHER MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FARTHER SW INTO
OK.
STILL...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY COMPENSATES TO SOME EXTENT FOR THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So basically 90L sits there in that BOC jumble for a while and then hopefully comes to GA with tons of rain.

At least according to the models

Yep, check 1142 for what the models say.
Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado risk is down to a 10%.


Such numbers area completely arbitrary and minute, the difference between 10 and 15 percent is negligible in the grand scheme. As demonstrated with Moore and Joplin only one tornado needs to go through a populated area to leave a lasting scar; if that happens nobody will care if wit was 10 or 15 percent.
1189. JLPR2
I wont deny it, I'm impressed. I thought it would be fading by now.

1190. zawxdsk
I think this early morning sounding from Norman is convincing me that 10% to 15% is okay.



the pennsylvania and canada tornado outbreak.1985 5/31
Quoting JLPR2:
I wont deny it, I'm impressed. I thought it would be fading by now.


well it does have an upper high on it protecting from any shear that may approach it
the long rg. models said about a wk ago we were going to have a cyclone near the e gulf but i dont remember one saying it was the leftovers of barbara
e the models show two storms again..but they have kept pushing the time back for both storms.
Shear is dropping in the GOM, most likely this is a factor that will influence 90L.

nice tropical wave I see in a long time in may
Quoting zawxdsk:
I think this early morning sounding from Norman is convincing me that 10% to 15% is okay.



40.4 supercell, 500-600 SRH, 10STP....50kt shear,

ouch.....we'll see what happens 3500j/kg CAPE surface and midlevels.
Won't have a good picture of the short-term fate of 90L until tomorrow or Sunday to see what sheer does over the next 48 whether for the better or worse.........Pretty disorganized mess at the moment but an invest nonetheless to keep an eye on.
Quoting MrstormX:
Shear is dropping in the GOM, most likely this is a factor that will influence 90L.


how ever true that may be right now on that same map shear in increasing right on top of 90L



anyway new models its truly a big joke

Quoting AussieStorm:
Get as low as you can and put as many walls as you can between you and the tornado.


Good post. Bares repeating.
Off to work. Luck all.
'night Aussie.
1142# looking at the models there might be a few surprises
1204. shy9
The NHC FAQ is incomplete in documenting cross-basin storms. A careful reading of the Annual summaries for 1967 state that a Atlantic hurricane crossed central America and formed a Pacific storm. Also, I think it was the late 1990's or early 2000's that an Atlantic Hurricane crossed central Mexico and was designated a E. Pacific depression, although this one did not develop past a depression.
1205. scott39
Is the water warm enough in the north part of the GOM, for a developed TC to gain strength?
1206. hydrus
Rain has gone beyond the graph in the gulf.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Same....
02E


90L


Now that the collision 'dust' has settled, 90E is a lot further East than I expected.
1208. ncstorm
the CMC Ensembles take it to Florida..

1209. hydrus
Quoting scott39:
Is the water warm enough in the north part of the GOM, for a developed TC to gain strength?
Some spots are still cool, but mostly yes.
Quoting scott39:
Is the water warm enough in the north part of the GOM, for a developed TC to gain strength?

its warmer in the BOC and W Caribbean than it is in the GOM more so the N GOM
1211. Levi32
Quoting AussieStorm:


I get product not found when I go to your site. Mistake by NOAA or bad link?


For a newly-declared invest, the satellite floater won't be up yet, so you'll get a missing image/link. Same for dissipated storms like Barbara, which is still on the page and won't disappear until later today. When I get time I might try to make it less confusing by removing the images if they don't yet exist for a particular invest.
That wave may trigger the second storm the GFS and Euro are showing? But what do I know I'm the dumb one here.
though it seem to be just on the boarder to be enough
1214. Thrawst
.
.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL...SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311345Z - 311515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RENEWED INTENSIFICATION OF A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT EVOLVING
WITHIN A BROADER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SRN PORTION OF LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAD TAKEN
ON A BOWING/BULGING SHAPE OVER THE PAST HOUR CONTRIBUTING TO AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD PROPAGATION TO AROUND 30-35 KT AND MEASURED WIND
GUSTS TO 48 KT AT KDMO PRIOR TO 13Z. THIS CLUSTER HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE MUCAPE GRADIENT...AND STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL
THE LLJ WEAKENS. THERE IS CONCERN THAT WITH DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION
EVIDENT INTO THE STL METRO AREA...THAT AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH NEUTRAL
TO WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED AT 700
MB...CONVECTION MIGHT STRUGGLE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY...WHICH SEEMS TO
BE THE SIGNAL PROVIDED BY MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013


ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 39019220 39289157 39469073 39558996 39438956 39158933
38708938 37828962 37499035 37429157 37499215 37819272
38159297 39019220
1217. VR46L
Hiya Folks !

SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/ATL/90L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/compo site

Click to enlarge
SE Florida is already rain saturated with almost 16" of rain for the month of May. All canals and lakes are filled to the rim. I doubt we can handle any major rain event prior to a good drying out. Wettest May I remember since moving here in 1974.
Good morning, is the mass of convection in the Caribbean supposed to move northward to Florida?



...from 8 a.m. NHC Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER IN THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W AND THE OTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N62W. THIS RESULTS IN AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED MOIST E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...AREAS OF CONVECTION PERSIST THIS MORNING.
ONE SUCH AREA IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 75W-84W.

OTHERWISE... OTHER AREAS REMAIN AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 64W. FINALLY...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N/11N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-86W. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF E-SE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.
Quoting VR46L:
Hiya Folks !

SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/ATL/90L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/compo site

Click to enlarge
Where did you find that.
Quoting gailstar:
SE Florida is already rain saturated with almost 16" of rain for the month of May. All canals and lakes are filled to the rim. I doubt we can handle any major rain event prior to a good drying out. Wettest May I remember since moving here in 1974.


Less dry air to weaken the hurricanes, then. It really is shaping up as a doozy of a season.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


40.4 supercell, 500-600 SRH, 10STP....50kt shear,

ouch.....we'll see what happens 3500j/kg CAPE surface and midlevels.

Best setup, at least localised all year. Strange how NWS Norman mentions several tornadoes, some of which may be violent, while SPC says an isolated strong tornado is possible.
1225. hydrus
Almost 25 inches of rain in the S.E.Gulf by the GFS..
Good morning everyone.....Good news,more Data from the Hurricane Hunters this year


During this year’s hurricane season NASA will “double-team” on research with two unmanned Global Hawk aircraft winging their way over storms that develop during the peak of the season. NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel, or HS3 airborne mission, will revisit the Atlantic Ocean to investigate storms using additional instruments and for the first time two Global Hawks.

"The advantage this year over 2012 is that the second aircraft will measure eyewall and rainband winds and precipitation, something we didn't get to do last year," said Scott Braun, HS3 mission principal investigator and research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "In addition, just as we did in 2012, the first aircraft will examine the large-scale environment that tropical storms form in and move through and how that environment affects the inner workings of the storms."



Full story here---->Link
1229. VR46L
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Where did you find that.


On the Navy storm page for 90L .. Played around with the buttons 90l Navy STORM Page90l Navy STORM page

Edit tried to fix link
The SPC's reasoning for a 10% area instead of a 15% area is higher low-level shear across Indiana. Perhaps somebody more knowledgable can explain why the heck this matters?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Best setup, at least localised all year. Strange how NWS Norman mentions several tornadoes, some of which may be violent, while SPC says an isolated strong tornado is possible.

I was surprised when the latest SPC outlook got rid of the 15% area. Perhaps we'll see them increase the risk again for the next outlook.
1232. Thrawst
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The SPC's reasoning for a 10% area instead of a 15% area is higher low-level shear across Indiana. Perhaps somebody more knowledgable can explain why the heck this matters?


I believe this is a big mistake.
1233. 900MB
Hey y'all! Long time! Happy hurricane season! I've been dormant since Sandy, what a doosy for us in NYC. Looks like another nutty year.

Is it me, or is that African blob a bit fearsome for this time of the season?
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 857
Issue Time: 2013 May 31 1217 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 31 1122 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1122 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Link
1236. Gearsts
Oh wow ouch poor guy.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

sure is a wet morning so far

W'kid
I think we are stuck in this all day today !
Quoting yonzabam:


Less dry air to weaken the hurricanes, then. It really is shaping up as a doozy of a season.


I guess the models calling for two feet of rain in FL have been expecting Barbara/90E to provide it, even before Barbara was named in the EPAC. No wonder they were so fast to rename her.. except now she looks like she might be-devil the models like Debby did.
This where the fun begins..
Quoting gailstar:
SE Florida is already rain saturated with almost 16" of rain for the month of May. All canals and lakes are filled to the rim. I doubt we can handle any major rain event prior to a good drying out. Wettest May I remember since moving here in 1974.
I live just north of Tampa and we received less than two inches for may, bringing our yearly total thus far to 8.5". Fail
Quoting Thrawst:


I believe this is a big mistake.

I'd be inclined to agree. Not sure why more favourable wind shear to the northeast would do anything to the threat in Oklahloma. Bulk shear is AOA 50 knots in the Moderate risk already.
EXTREME HEAT ALERT
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 AM EDT Friday 31 May 2013
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:78.8°F
Dewpoint:67.3°F
Humidity:68%
Wind:SSE 6 mph
Humidex: 92
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hey Everyone. It's after midnight here in Sydney So it's the 1st day of Winter and the 1st day of the 2013 Hurricane season here. Good luck all. Lets hope and pray it's all fishes.
1246. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The SPC's reasoning for a 10% area instead of a 15% area is higher low-level shear across Indiana. Perhaps somebody more knowledgable can explain why the heck this matters?


No I think you're reading it wrong. The issue is lower low-level shear in OK. It's not really that impressive. However, surface winds will be backing after 21z as the secondary heat low develops in northern TX, so that has me concerned personally.
Quoting hydrus:
Almost 25 inches of rain in the S.E.Gulf by the GFS..


Its starting to look like Debby round 2, it will be interesting to see what unfolds.
1248. robj144
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I live just north of Tampa and we received less than two inches for may, bringing our yearly total thus far to 8.5". Fail


When he said SE Florida, what are you saying fail? In an 8 hour period a few weeks ago, I received 10 inches of rain in my area. It might not be all of Florida, but DEFINITELY SE FLA cannot take much more rain.
As further evidence that human beings are woefully inept at predicting the weather, the NWS has for the second day in a row, blown their forecast for my area. Admittedly, the day is not yet done, but no one in my forecast area has received so much as a drop of rain, and the radar doesn't seem to reflect much enthusiasm for a high probability. Predicting an 80% and 70% chance of precipitation for yesterday and today, one would expect to see a bit more activity on radar. I wonder if anyone has done any studies to see just how much better we are at predicting the weather than we were 20, or even a hundred years ago?