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Humberto will bring serious flooding to Texas and Louisiana; TD 8 strengthening in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2007

Tropical Storm Humberto is steadily gaining strength as it closes in on the Texas coast near Freeport. Radar animations from Houston show a well-defined circulation, with plenty of low-level spiral bands wrapping around the center. Humberto is organizing quickly, and it is a good thing it has less than 12 hours remaining over water. Despite the rather intimidating appearance of Humberto on radar, the winds have not shown a major increase yet. A buoy 70 miles south of Freeport has measured sustained winds of 25 mph since 8:50am EDT. The region of winds above 35 knots (40 mph) as estimated by the Houston Doppler radar have shown a steady increase, doubling in area over the past two hours (keep in mind that due to the curvature of the earth, these winds are measured at an altitude of roughly 2,000 feet 50 miles from the radar). Top winds reported by the Hurricane Hunters in their 2:55pm EDT center fix were 38 knots at flight level, which corresponds to about 35 mph at the surface. They measured a pressure of 1001 mb, 4 mb lower than the estimated pressure from the 2pm EDT advisory from NHC. Winds from the SFMR instrument on the aircraft were 35 knots (40 mph) in several locations, with one spot of 51 mph winds.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from Houston, Texas.

Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots, and Humberto has time to develop into a 50-55 mph tropical storm before it makes landfall tonight. Since this system is slow moving, it has the potential to drop rain amounts in excess of ten inches along the Texas and Louisiana coasts--including the Houston metropolitan area--over the next two days. These rains may cause widespread destructive flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches have already occurred along the coast, from Galveston to just beyond the Louisiana border, as estimated by radar.

Tropical Depression Eight
Tropical Depression Eight formed this morning, and has the potential to grow into a hurricane in the next 3-4 days. This morning's 8:18am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite captured the circulation of TD 8 nicely, and showed that it was still somewhat elliptical, which will slow down intensification until the circulation grows more circular. ASCAT estimated winds up to 25 knots (30 mph) on the northwest side of TD 8. Satellite loops of TD 8 have shown a slow but steady improvement in organization since early this morning. A large area of thunderstorms reach high in the atmosphere (as evidenced by very cold cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery), an upper-level outflow channel has opened to the south, and some low-level spiral banding is now apparent. Several satellite intensity estimates put TD 8 at tropical storm strength already, and I expect that this will be a tropical storm later today.

Wind shear is about 10 knots over TD 8, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Saturday morning. This should allow TD 8 the opportunity to grow to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday, as predicted by the latest (12Z, 8am EDT) rund of the GFDL and HWRF intensity models. By Saturday afternoon, the models have different solutions on what will happen to TD 8. An upper-level trough will lie north of the Lesser Antilles at that time, and may bring hostile wind shear to TD 8. The GFDL model predicts that this shear will be strong enough to reduce TD 8 to a weak tropical storm. The HWRF model disagrees, and keeps the storm at Category 1 hurricane strength. The SHIPS intensity model says the shear will increase to about 15 knots, which would slow but perhaps not completely halt intensification. The farther north the storm goes, the better--wind shear will be stronger to the north.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly a research mission into TD 8 Thursday evening.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 10:09 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.
Any Idea's on Td#8. Seems everyone is saying s to se florida and then exiting around sarasota to crystal river. Any thoughts.


Evening CH20F :~)

Only one though....It is way too early to speculate on that.

Here is most likely how; soon to be, getting over shadowed by Humberto, after he stole what should have been her name, Irene tracks...

W/WNWish for a bit, WNW/NWish for a bit and then WNWish again for a bit and it still is not even near a landfall yet. Observe her, watch the models, and in a few days we will have a better idea of how it may impact the US. Big question now is does it get the Islands or no? They are the ones that need to keep the closest eye on TD8 right now.
well ADT, is rising fast it seems...if the dvorak estimates at the next SAB reading show 4.0, it may become a cane
What are the wind speeds for Humberto at right now? Are we seriously entertaining the idea that this could be a Cat 1 Hurricane by the time it hits?
Posted By: StormJunkie at 10:10 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Hhunter, thanks for the link. The Gulf Cam , last one shows an angry ocean about to come on to the street.


Water's not about to come onto the street there -- it has about 15 feet of seawall to climb before reaching street level.
Thanks Storm junkie. I just looks like a frances path
Does anyone else notice that Humberto seems to have slowed down and almost stalled? Look at the WU radar out of Houston and set it in motion...doesn't look like it's been moving much at all. This would mean more time over water...and now that it's moving further to the east, there is more water for it to traverse due to the orientation of the coastline. Combine that with its swift intensification it's been going, the chances of it potentially becoming a very minimal hurricane at 75mph continue to increase. I expect it to at least be a 60-65mph tropical storm when it makes landfall.

Thoughts??
The way the models stall this out..This looks like, though I hope not, the makings of another 2001 TS Allison or 1994 Alberto as far as the potential flooding problems.
Linear average, not linear path. If you don't know what a linear average is (as opposed to a weighted one), you really should pick a topic simpelr than meteorology to weigh in on.

I really didn't mind the hammering until that last comment. I'm not going to "pick a topic simpler than meteorology to weigh in on."
I zoomed in on the houston radar at the center of humberto...it definatly shows a more east movement
Banding is improving. Now moving into Texas. I expected the storm to make landfall late tonight.
Posted By: extreme236 at 10:19 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

I zoomed in on the houston radar at the center of humberto...it definatly shows a more east movement


yeah last couple of frames show it unstalling, but srating out moving east
ok all, I will BBL
hello all here from southwest louisiana. calcasiue/cameron parish line local meteroligist stated land fall around high island texas and could be a littler farther east.
How Can Humberto not be a Hrricane? That pic Drak posted looks like a hurricane to me...Untrainned eye...
Dal, got to head home, good luck being the voice of reason!
Posted By: StormJunkie at 10:14 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.
"W/WNWish for a bit, WNW/NWish for a bit and then WNWish again for a bit and it still is not even near a landfall yet. Observe her, watch the models, and in a few days we will have a better idea of how it may impact the US. Big question now is does it get the Islands or no? They are the ones that need to keep the closest eye on TD8 right now."

Good points SJ...let's worry for the people in the eastern Caribbean islands first...most people probably don't even know the names...

Easern Caribbean Map
I think when the new models come out some will shift east to Morgan City La.
Posted By: NWWNCAVL at 10:22 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

How Can Humberto not be a Hrricane? That pic Drak posted looks like a hurricane to me...Untrainned eye...


It may be close to that. There is no clear eye, but signs of one forming. Although storms do not need an eye to be a hurricane (minimal).
525. H2PV
Posted By: dburris1040 at 10:07 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.
Question: I understand that one result from hurricanes is transferring heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes. When we have a year like this, where the two severe hurricanes thus far don't make any progress north, does that make it more likely that there will be more severe hurricanes, since little or no heat was transferred to the north?


You understood wrong. A byproduct of some storms is heat transfer polewards, but the main heat transfer is straight upwards. Water is a good heat sink under most conditions, with two important exceptions: at freezing point and at condensation point. Freezing doesn't apply in cyclones but condensation certainly does.

At condensation 600 calories of thermal energy per gram of water is ejected from the molecules. When this happens at 6 to 12 miles high, most of that is radiated out into space, and the rain falls at much lower temperatures.

It is the heat-dissipation cycles that build a hurricane and sustain it. A hurricane is Hoovering up heat out of the sea surfaces and transporting it aloft, using heat energy to accomplish that. If you want to get some idea what kinds of energy are at issue here, try running upstairs hauling a 5-gallon bucket of water in each hand. That's 10 feet rise of 80 pounds. Hurricanes lift the equal of millions of SUVs miles into the sky.

If any of that tropically warmed rain falls up north, they get warmed some but it's not the main event. It matters when tropical storms keep going with remnants into the arctic and melts the ice. That's another deep subject better saved for after hurricane season.
At least, we can say it is not a good night to go to the grocery store in Galveston. Not sure why the winds are not jiving but, this is why I recommend preparing for a little more than what is forecast.
Still sunshining here 30 miles inland from galveston. But the sky looks incredible down there.
Posted By: NearTEXcoast at 10:23 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Dal, got to head home, good luck being the voice of reason!


Thanks, but I've got to run too. Have a boring meeting to go to. If the phone company's fixed our phone line today (the result of a ton of rain in Dallas, but know one gives a hoot because it didn't have a name!), I'll be back on in a couple hours.
236, it does seemed to have taken a "jog" to the east just recently...
Hey guygee, all is fairly well. Taking it easy and blogging in here today b/c I'm sick.

Also SJ hello.

TD8 does have some eerie hallmarks of a US landfalling system. It doesn't help they have 1964 Hurricane Dora on the historical track chart (which you never see). My intuition says she'll recurve.

Here's current Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity which I haven't seen posted yet. TD 8 has plenty of warm water ahead, and Humberto is hanging out over some nice potential energy.


Posted By: Drakoen at 10:23 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Posted By: NWWNCAVL at 10:22 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

How Can Humberto not be a Hrricane? That pic Drak posted looks like a hurricane to me...Untrainned eye...

It may be close to that. There is now clear eye, but signs of one forming. Although storms do not need an eye to be a hurricane (minimal).


Thanks, u r a patient individual...
Evening all! Just kicked off my computer hog honey. TD 8 could be Ingrid-not Irene right?
Willjax those maps are unchange from the summer.They do not update.
Posted By: RockMeLikeAHurricane at 10:26 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Posted By: RockMeLikeAHurricane at 10:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

This is certainly looking like Alicia to some folks.

For crying out loud -- Alicia was a Cat 3 storm, which was a hurricane for a day and a half before landfall. What about Humberto looks like that?

Sorry, My Bad. Meant to say "Alison".

You can stop crying out loud now...


Okay, this does have the appearance of Allison.
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
HWRF...GFDL...UMKET...AND GFS MODELS.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS
BY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME
WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.5N 45.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.9N 46.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.3N 47.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 48.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 15.1N 49.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.2N 52.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 58.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

I'm wishcasting lots of rain in Baton Rouge, LA on Saturday because my brother and sister in law want us to watch their 3yr old AGAIN while they go to the game. I'm hoping I can convince them that they won't be going to the game because of weather--only if it's likely there will be bad weather of course. The local news said 40% on Sat. What say you?
538. JLPR
TD8
is td8 not following his path is that or the center has left the deep convection
it looks like it is more west than anticipated
My bad sceerdy! Duh. And thanks :~)

Evening to you

Hey WJ, great to see you ☺
I'm meant the llc on Humberto is not clear out lol. Mis-type
For those who think Floyd was a cat 2 at landfall, please read the following:

Floyd was aimed at the central Bahamas until late on the 13th, when the heading became west-northwestward. The eye passed just 20 to 30 n mi northeast and north of San Salvador and Cat Islands on the night of the 13th. Floyd's eyewall passed over central and northern Eleuthera on the morning of the 14th, and after turning toward the northwest, Floyd struck Abaco island on the afternoon of the 14th. By the time the hurricane hit Abaco, it had weakened somewhat from its peak, but Floyd was still a borderline category three/four hurricane.

From NHC's Floyd 1999 Preliminary Report

JLPR the center is not where the heaviest convection is. Run the loops.
Truecajun, it never rains in death vally.
The blue dot is where the center is.
SJ-you are never a dah! slip of the key...
547. JLPR
well if thats true and that forecast is correct then TD8 center is under light convection?
Harris County Judge just got out of emergency meeting for Houston (emergency planning, etc.) and he said the mets were telling him that the storm is looking to move even more Eastward than before.

Radar supports this, imho, as it is looking NE, which actually looks parallel to the TX coast.

Might this parallel and loop back out off of LA coast rather than inbound to Galveston Bay?
Okay, folks, coming out of lurkdom here. I'm in East Texas. We got Allison for six days of straight rain a few years ago. Two years ago we got Rita as a Cat 1. I am getting a little concerned, although my bright 88 year old Mom just yesterday bought a new generator, lol! Just on general principles.

Now my question. I've got over 100 weather links including QuickLinks, SJ, and I *cannot* find that web site that has the "spaghetti" models. Please help! TIA
550. JLPR
umm i see thats why TD8 is not a TS i suppose
Hey Drak, StormW, JPhurricane06, nash28, and hurricane23, I really appreciate all your input. You guys really know your stuff. I always look forward to your comments and predictions because most of the time they are spot on. Keep up the good work. Thanks
553. beell
edit in bold
weatherguy03,
Thanks for posting tide info for Upper TX Coast on your blog regarding Humberto.
There are a few roads down there that will get some water over them at 4-5' above normal tide levels
Just a jog to the east a little.....still think landfall straight across Galveston Island and up Galveston Bay.....
Yes Humberto is back on the move again but now parallel to the coast.
Models

Link
Will someone please paste the link to the Galveston radar? Thanks in advance.
It would be a terrible situation if this turns out to be Allison #2...
I would really like a comment on this...

Has anyone compared accuweather and NHC for speed of TD 8? Holy Smokes. NHC has it ~52W at Saturday am while Accuweather has it at ~68W by Saturday night. The speed differences are pretty incredible.
Drako, what do you mean they dont update? They are valid for todays date and update each day.


Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


yes it does, but it doesn't look like allison. same place and same intensity but looks WAY more organised. if it was in the middle of the gulf (like the first place it was named 90l) as a td, then we could have seen another alicia, if the sheer wasn't high then. if it had any more time out in the open water, we would have had a hurricane on our hands i bet. just look at it now! it has an eye/ hole in radar in the center! just became a ts! looks better than some hurricanes i have seen...
well she said it, i was wondering if she would. the local met in Puerto Rico has said that she honestly doesnt agree with the NHC and that NW movement, to her 08 is moving more to the west then is being said and in the next 12 - 24 hours the track will be shifted more to the South.
I completely agree with her, and with StormW, because that is what he was saying too. This local met isnt just any crazy old weather aficionado, she is often drafted to go work with the NHC in Miami when Miami or Florida is under imminent threat, so she could be a link to the latin community there. So she knows her stuff, by far.
Hey, katadman...what's up?
here u go katadman i have it on my fav's cuz i live in tey yas.
I don't know why everybody is trying to do Twinkster in. His forecast is basically the track of Hurricane Floyd 1999. Obviously it happened before; obviously the climatological conditions exist for it to happen again.



Lest you believe I am "wishing" for this storm to hit the Bahamas, I will also post a map of Isabel 2003, which threatened but did not strike this area. (Yes, I know this was more of a CV storm than Floyd, but it did threaten at one point the northern Bahamas and central / northern FL.)



Either scenario is quite possible at this time.
Humberto..20 frame loop

Link
569. JLPR
was it Ada benirica?
Starting to get some gusty winds here inland
I am new here. Just wanted to put in my 2 cents. This has been a very interesting hurricane season. Activity is ramping up. Here on the west coast, I get most concerned during October. I hope the folks in Texas are doing ok. Should be a rather rough evening for them. My eyes are set on the central atlantic. TD8 has me a bit worried.
Thnx Tropicnerd...I was looking for that one too...
omg td8's path was changed southward just like i predicted. i said this was going to be a dean/ erin thing again, but with a better erin replacement (hummy), along with a possible more northwardly track for the dean replacement (td8). also, twc said they think it will last from current time now until saturday. sucks for me cuz i am having a party then. sorry, i have work to do. just stopping in.
Hhunter posted this earlier....

Galveston Web Cams

Check out the Gulf Cam, the last one in the list. Looks like water will top this road.
Hey, Floodman! Good to see ya. Obviously, I'm not getting much work done.
Is it just me, or in the last few frames does Humberto just move parallel to the coast?
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 10:42 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

omg td8's path was changed southward just like i predicted.


Actually the track moved to the north lol.
No worries, Kat...if you could get the one to me...by the way, a new one for you in a sec
Either scenario is possible and both hit me....Not sure i like that idea..lol. Anyone thinking that Humberto could make it to Cat 1 before landfall? Seems to be trying to get an eye formed...
Just of-shore
Storm Junkie, that picture is deceiving. There is actually a seawall there. The road is much higher than the water.
I'm seeing that too, C2...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_2005_track.png

And don't forget Katrina's path ... (don't know how to do the picture)
Posted By: C2News at 10:43 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Is it just me, or in the last few frames does Humberto just move parallel to the coast?

its not u its whats really happening
C2News,
I agree with you. I just had a look at the last 20 radar frames. To my untrained eyes it does appear to be headed more eastward than before.
dferrucci it would take a pretty amazing turn for that to happen...don't expect there's enough time, but hey, what do I know?
Hurricane Hunter Report

22:30:30Z 28.88N 94.75W 842.1 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,541 meters
(~ 5,056 feet) 1007.2 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg) - From 130 at 32 knots
(From the SE at ~ 36.8 mph) 14.1C
(~ 57.4F) 0.0C
(~ 32.0F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 53 knots
(~ 60.9 mph) 21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr) 48.5 knots (~ 55.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 151.4%
Posted By: Floodman at 6:45 PM EDT on September 12, 2007.
I'm seeing that too, C2...


It will be interesting to see if that continues...if that were to happen, it would bring more rainfall.
Galleria area, (west of downtown Houston), light wind from the North, but a band of storms forming literally in front of my eyes West, about 20-30 miles.

Began with one popcorn storm about 20 minutes ago, building North on a straight South to North line.

Otherwise, mix of low and high.

Really kinda calm here right now.
You've already gat the one, fldmn.
yeah JLPR, it wad Ada Monzon.
By far I think the best meteorologist in Puerto Rico.
SJ there is a 15-17 ft. seawall there on seawall blvd where the gulf cam is. When Rita was supposed to come here it was forecasted to top the seawall by a good 5 ft.
i say it could do an andrew like path, but starting where it is, along with the slower motion. ought to round out over the next 2 days circulation wise, allowing development over the month(according to twc, saying it will take forever to reach the islands) we will be watching it. dont know about the land fall place, but ought to follow the same path until the bahamas. dont know what it will do there. there is a fork in the road there. may go north, around the bermuda high, or go in the gulf like andrew from the gom high (or texas high, la high, etc). hard to tell right now. we shouldn't worry about it right now. dean took about one week to go from the islands to mexico, which pretty much scared us all to death. this one will probably take 3 times as long to get to land other than the islands/ bahamas/ cuba.
Floodman this has been the year of unprecedented feats for storms...lol...I guess we will have to watch and see what mother nature has in store for him. Lets hope he knows how to listen.
Try this, DocBenKatrina's Path
guys that sea wall is 15 feet high for cat 3 built after 1900
Is that an eye? The HHs reported a developing eyewall.
So is it really that high brazo? Looks pretty high from the pics.

And thanks :~)
Looks like 60mph sustained winds folks...this stands a chance at cane strength

000
URNT12 KNHC 122247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/22:34:40Z
B. 28 deg 41 min N
094 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. 53 kt
E. 026 deg 13 nm
F. 122 deg 041 kt
G. 027 deg 014 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C/ 1532 m
J. 20 C/ 1537 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 23
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 20:47:50 Z
GOOD RADAR BANDING


hMMMMM looks like it maybe setting up to be Allisons brother.
Well the more eastwardly it goes the more I like it
Here's a good cam from Kemah, on Galveston bay about 3 miles east of where I am right now. The camera is looking due east (Galveston island is to the right, Houston to the left and straight ahead is across Galveston Bay) First hint of some wind and rain around here.

Link
Hey, guygee, that is a nice labelled map of the Lesser Antilles which I just swiped for my own purposes . . .
Yikes! Apparently I don't know how to do it either, DocBen...try this:

Katrina's Path
eye definately forming
humberto
Yeah SJ built after the big one. Will only hold back a strong cat. 3 at most though.
I'm gonna leave. Blog giving me a headache.
i this here from TWC that are new TS this took a jog to the E
I can't believe how great Humberto looks...that was fast!
Posted By: Hurricaneblast at 10:51 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

eye definately forming


GREAT SHOT!! of the center looks very impressive
I'm really amazed at how quick Humberto got his act together in such a short time. He really is an impressive TS. I don't expect this to be a hurricane at landfall, but a very strong TS around 65mph is likely.
Highest storm tide currently forecast:
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
THU 4:34 AM. 4.5 FEET
drak, i meant overall. i haven't looked on here for a while. i just mean from the models. seems the cone includes more southward than the models.
guys that sea wall is 15 feet high for cat 3 built after 1900
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

I'm really amazed at how quick Humberto got his act together in such a short time. He really is an impressive TS. I don't expect this to be a hurricane at landfall, but a very strong TS around 65mph is likely.


winds already at 60 lol
humberto pressure down 1 mb since 5:00 advisory
i'm still thinking Humberto will be a strong TS possible Cat 1
TexInsAgent...

I would have to say I disagree with you... the farther east it goes, the more time it has to strengthen and the closer it gets to Rita's old stomping grounds... I would have liked this thing to have gone on shore west of Houston a few hours ago and already be weakening...

but again... they don't ask me when they make these storms.
Humberto is getting it's act together quick....
we just had strong winds from the East for a while, started to rain--got cold. then the winds came from the west. now it's all still. I'm southwest of baton rouge, la. was that the front coming down or outer rain from Humberto? I love when the wind blows like that! i took the kids out to watch the clouds roll in and feel the wind--until it started to rain
Posted By: BahaHurican at 10:51 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.
"Hey, guygee, that is a nice labelled map of the Lesser Antilles which I just swiped for my own purposes . . ."

BahaHurican - Thanks, same here, it looks like it is out there as a public service.
Thank you so much, pslfl2. That works! Google Earth is amazing. Spaghetti models going right over our property (one) and the others are right next to it. I wonder if I ought to go out to be with my Mom? East Texas weather is so unpredictable! I have a feeling it might end up in LA, but it being belligerent.
winds already at 60 lol

Wow, really? I was just out for 15 minutes to eat dinner, it was 55 then. He's really going off.
ok ok ill be the nice guy. im in a good mood so here u go docben.
d
truecajun, that was from Humberto's bands. I am in Prairieville, Louisiana in Ascension Parish. We had a half an inch fall on us from Humberto, possibly more, in just a matter of minutes. No wind to speak of though, but awesome lightning.
guys that sea wall is 15 feet high for cat 3 built after 1900
Looks like it is going more north again. That east jog just probably helped alot of houston out.
Posted By: Crisis57 at 10:54 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

i'm still thinking Humberto will be a strong TS possible Cat 1
He is already a strong TS. LOL
Anyone think that all the 'Junk' moisture being sucked in east of Humberto will be enough to give the pumps around NOLA a good test?
tropicnerd. I can't see your picture..
If the sfc winds increase to 55kts, then humberto will become a 65mph TS...right now there at 53kts
iahishome....I hear what you are saying, but I am about 15 miles n of fleaport...I sure am not hoping for another Rita as I spent 12 to 13 hours just going to Brenham
considering the rate of intensification, I will be very surprized if Humberto is not a cat 1 at landfall. JMHO
OOOOMMMMMGGGGGG are the models saying a recurve into the gulf??? please answer then i will be on my way.
the hurricane expert in PR is taking it very seriously. she seems dead sure that the track will be shifted closer and everyone would be caught off guard because they believed it would be a Floyd or a Frances.
She seems dead sure also on td08 going about due west.
fleaport lol...
Posted By: destruction4u at 10:58 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Posted By: Crisis57 at 10:54 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

i'm still thinking Humberto will be a strong TS possible Cat 1
He is already a strong TS. LOL


I meant at landfall
well, we will have to see how all the vortex messages pan out...they need to show 65kts for a cat 1
guys that sea wall is 15 feet high for cat 3 built after 1900
benirica,

Es posible. Por eso todos desde PR hasta FL deben que mirar esta TD8.
beni, between you and SW, I am listening...

Not sure I am there yet with the W coarse, but I am not in the islands, so I don't think my opinion matters much...
I understand Tx... My family all piled into an RV and headed out of Beaumont... good thing, the first hotel they found was about 25 hours later almost to Dallas.

The RV carport, the garage door and about 9 trees were the only casualties of their house so it was doubly good that they left in the RV.

I called my aunt this morning and she hadn't heard anything about it... I bet she's hearing about it now.
whats take care of Humberto 1st and then talk about TD 8 later has it 5 to 10 days a way from any land and we have lots of time to watch TD 8 but for right now whats take care of Humberto
I wonder how many people were caught off guard regarding Humberto? I mean, it was declared a TD at 1 p.m. EST, it's just now 7 p.m. and Humberto is a 60mph TS, almost at 65mph now. It looks more and more likely now that Humby may be a Cat 1 at landfall, contrary to my previous statement. I'm guessing not many people were expecting that.
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 11:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

I wonder how many people were caught off guard regarding Humberto? I mean, it was declared a TD at 1 p.m. EST, it's just now 7 p.m. and Humberto is a 60mph TS, almost at 65mph now. It looks more and more likely now that Humby may be a Cat 1 at landfall, contrary to my previous statement. I'm guessing not many people were expecting that.


Well, actually it was a TD at 11am EST, but yea...not much of a difference
I think it's 17'??? Was built from the east end of the island to 61st St, then extended out past 93rd after Carla.
Please no mention of Frances, I get nightmares just hearing that name.
Humberto was classified a TD at 11am.
Good evening everyone. TD8 is looking very impressive by the hour.
Next advisory might have Humberto moving NNE...it will probably go inland between High Island, TX. and Cameron, LA. the front to the north is whats pulling it more NE....TD 8 could take a Hurricane Georges type track...the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico need to pay close attention...after that it would scrape the northern coasts of Hispanola and Cuba then possibly emerge in the GOM
Humberto shouldnt go back into the gulf, as the front should pick it up
Since the seawall is such a hot topic my wifes cousin actually fell off it in 94'and broke her leg. She was in one of those bicycle carts. Shes just lucky she didnt hit one of the jagged rocks.
im just putting emphasis on it because i know people tend to follow the black line...
i personally believe the forecast track should just be the cone, without the line. that line makes some feel too comfortable and others too scared.
Well, actually it was a TD at 11am EST, but yea...not much of a difference

Argh, I haven't been on today. I came home at 1 p.m. and saw the "newly declared TD's." Either way, you get my point.
Floodman, my daughter is flying out of Houston Intercontinental tomorrow afternoon and had rented a car to leave this evening to drive to Houston. I convinced her to postpone until tomorrow morning. I will monitor the weather as she drives in. I think she's watching the blog right now.
I will be back in a bit
In 04, Ivan recurved and hit FL again with lots of rain.
Cool cam goavs4...I live about 4 miles up the bay from there. Looks like Humberto jogged a little east then is straightening back out due north again.
What do any experts make of the curve back into the gulf on the models?
Now THAT was spoken like a die-hard insurance agent, and not just for the claims...storm damage is not good for anyone.
if the tracks these models are predicting verifies...that would be messed up.

Kat, it'll need to parallel the coast for a while yet to get that strong; the best sustained wind I've seen is 50mph or so
Hi all - first post here.

C2News and all - the galveston.com webcam called the "Beach Cam" cracked me up with its "Galveston's 32 miles of sun-drenched beaches..." :-)
666. beell
Seawall in Galveston is that high, but it don't run forever-W end Galveston Island has chronic problems w/hi-er tides. Same for Bolivar Penninsula on the E side of Galveston Bay.
Probably a few road closures at minimum.
Are my trusty eyes failing me, or has TD8 actually tracked South of West in the past 2 hours?
Kat, I'd have her hold off for a day, certainly...well, I'm out of here for now...got a training session...g'night, all
Humberto WILL NOT recurve back into the gulf....the front will pick it up and it will ride up the front into the SE
Just did a loop on the floater for TD8 and clicked on the the lat/long , also clicked on the tropical forcast track and it appears to me that TD8 has made a wobble to the South over the last few hours. I think the COC is in more of 12.9 to 13 N rather 13.5N, I'm not saying the NHC is off , I'm only saying what I'm observing as a layman, I could be completely wrong the NHC has been very accurate with the tracks of Dean & Felix. Does any one else notice this on the loop floater for TD8?
ivan was a freak, i am still concerned about the heavy rains, where they are aleady saturated. hoping ths front will persuade humberto to move out, but i doubt it. td8 getting tired?
Hi, bl. I jumped off of that seawall when I was just three years old. Apparently never fully recovered. lol
i think it is way too early to say where td8 is going. it could go out to sea, hit the east coast, or even go into the gulf or die out.
674. KRL
Posted By: StormJunkie at 10:42 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.
Hhunter posted this earlier....

Galveston Web Cams

Check out the Gulf Cam, the last one in the list. Looks like water will top this road.


Thanks SJ, great cam find!
The pros are doing this for a living, so I don't expect them to have comments frequently, but I also wonder what the professional assessment is of the models showing Humberto re-entering the gulf...could get pretty ugly for LA with the easterly winds that are prevalent--getting hit twice would relly bite
caymanite, you're right on...It's so far away from the tropical forecast points too...
lol katadam
be back later guys
Who did TWC send to Texas
680. KRL
Posted By: SWFLdrob at 11:11 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.
if the tracks these models are predicting verifies...that would be messed up.


Not really. The weather is fricking the weirdest it's ever been. Expect the abnormal, the strange, the unexpected. That's what weather is all about now in this era of climate change and it's only going to get more bizarre in the years ahead.

Whoa weird! I went back to the wunderground site and found the title for this blog entry was missing...then I clicked on the blog title instead and discovered that it had 666 comments at that time, lol. But anyway...WOW...this is frickin incredible. Humberto was JUST named a TD this morning at 10 AM CDT, and it's already looking like a damn hurricane. Just look at the visible and tell me that's not starting to look like a hurricane already. If that's not enough, look at the radar! It won't be long before he starts forming an eyewall at this rate.
Mike siedel
Tanks FWF91 & SPetrol, just wanted to make sure that I wasnt seeing things. I believe that the track of this one is still to be determined.
Located on the west end of Galveston Island and we just had a squall come through with 38mph wind with a gust of 48
Is it just me or is Humberto organizing an eyewall?
Most of the models do show td8 going south or due west until around 47
Anybody look at the wave behind TD8 recently?

On my radar, GRLevel3, an eyewall is trying to form on the north side it looks like.
for get TD 8 for right now we need to stay more on track on Humberto we can talk about TD 8 at a later time when Humberto gets on out of here
Evening bl ~)

lol f4j, I found that pretty ironic as well. Welcome aboard.

SFMR just showed Humberto at 63mph (round to 65)...and they use the sfmr a lot for intensity
I think that the tropical unit of the Weather holds a grudge against Cantore. Wherever he goes, he misses out on all the action. If he ends up not going to a Storm, the Storm always is amazing and perfect for him, but he's not there.
Caymanite, As being from Grand Cayman myself, I didn't read your post til I had already posted myself, I'm glad to see that someone else has noticed the same thing with the South movement of TD8.
Radar shows a more northward movement now. It may go ashore just north of Galveston.
Cayman,

Could it be building convection on the SW side making it look like it's headed that way? I think I'm seeing what u're seeing, but I'm not quite sure.
td8 has the potential for much more damage than humberto in the future but it is very far away
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:21 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

evening all

not sure if this is posted yet but recon found pressure of 998mb and winds now of 55mph


vortex message actually shows 60mph winds and the sfmr just showed 65
This season is only 1/2 way done, but it's already been full of surprises.

Don't blink or you might miss the TS phase of some of these hurricanes.
Yeah Katadam I think right between Galveston and Bolivar. Wonder if the ferry is stopped running yet.
it seems to be becoming increasingly likely for the possibility of humberto to become a hurricane...
Cool off Taz, I think we have the right to discuss whatever TROPICAL WEATHER system we care to here. Gosh guy cool off.
703. KRL
Humberto
Yes baha, it could just be the building convection, but even if it is the forecast points are way off bc there's no convection over the predicted center. And before, the COC was exposed from the convection so it looked like it was in the wrong place, but now the dvorak imagery places the center almost perfectly in the center of the convection.
The GFDL 18z has shifted its track more to the South.
I was wondering the same thing, Brazocane.
Evening Baha, wondered that too but upon closer examination I dont think so.
Posted By: RockMeLikeAHurricane at 11:24 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Posted By: STSUCKS at 11:13 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Humberto WILL NOT recurve back into the gulf....the front will pick it up and it will ride up the front into the SE.

All current and forcast steering currents over the next 24-72 hours say you are wrong. Feel free and cite your sources.


lol why does he need resources with that front right there ready to pick it up? LOL
What do you think the strength will be for Humberto? Feel free to guess! I won't be mad at you for anything. I think maybe 55 mph?
new vortex message in...42kt sfc winds, although the flight winds translate to 60mph at the sfc
Posted By: Caymanite at 4:24 PM PDT on September 12, 2007.

Cool off Taz, I think we have the right to discuss whatever TROPICAL WEATHER system we care to here. Gosh guy cool off

......



i was this saying that we sould talk more about humberto then we sould on TD 8 for right humberto is more cloer to land then TD 8 is we sould talk about humberto not TD 8 we can take care of TD 8 later but for now whats take care of humberto be come its more cloer to home then TD 8 is
713. beell
Possible Humberto Turner(not the entertainer).
May play another gig later.
wv
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 11:26 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

What do you think the strength will be for Humberto? Feel free to guess! I won't be mad at you for anything. I think maybe 55 mph?


Its at 60 now lol
With how warm the GOM is its not too big of a suprise to see Humberto intensify like this.
Posted earlier:

Posted By: benirica at 11:00 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

the hurricane expert in PR is taking it very seriously. she seems dead sure that the track will be shifted closer and everyone would be caught off guard because they believed it would be a Floyd or a Frances.
She seems dead sure also on td08 going about due west.


Even if she is right (which I don't know how she can "know" it's gonna shift), it would probably be nothing more than a TS? It probably wouldn't even by a hurricane.
Drak,

Where did you get the GFDL 18Z model? The only place I have found it is on FSUs website.

000
URNT12 KNHC 122323
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/23:03:50Z
B. 28 deg 44 min N
094 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1407 m
D. 42 kt
E. 221 deg 21 nm
F. 299 deg 035 kt
G. 221 deg 020 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C/ 1532 m
J. 20 C/ 1537 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 25
MAX FL WIND 55 KT OUTBOUND E QUAD 23:08:30 Z
MAX SFC WINDS 51 KT OUTBOUND E QUAD 23:08:40 Z

the sfc winds were recorded 5 mins after.
The GFS 18z run seems to take it north of the lesser Antilles. The UKMET 18 looks to be doing the same, but thats only the best the eye can see at 48 hours out with motion extrapolation.
Rockmelikeahurricane pull up a weather map a look at the stationary front sitting over the northern gulf coast..there are my sources also there is a stronger front that will push down this way for the first part of the weekend that will have drier air..at the rate of speed Humberto is moving it would take a couple of days for it too loop back into the gulf and that WILL NOT HAPPEN with the cold front pushing down for the weekend
Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 11:29 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Drak,

Where did you get the GFDL 18Z model?


Wunderground.
Taz, we're having 2 different conversations. I'm sure those talking abt. TD8 are paying attention to what others are posting abt Humberto. I am finding the on-the-spot comments insightful.
and the flight winds on the latest vortex message confirm that there was about 53kts at the sfc from the last vortex message...winds should be raised to 60mph
Will they issue hurricane warnings/watches tonight prior to Humberto making landfall?
New GFDL drops south on this run....

Taz I hear you lad but no need to tell people to SHUT UP. Please also remember that this is not a purely "Weather in America Blog"
Several people have mentioned the forecast "points", and that they are off. A forecast is never a line, and not certain points. The forecast is the cone, and anywhere within that cone is accurate. Max Mayfield was a big proponent of taking the line out, felt that too many people relied on it, and had damage that could have been avoided.
I look for td8 to be smack dab in the middle of the heberts box !!!
Anyone happen to know the record for the shortest lived tropical cyclone, from TD to Cat1+ to remnant?
I'm wondering also if this wobble will be long enough to bring TD8 through the NE Lesser Antilles after all.

I'm still not buying that due-west-near-Barbados possibility right now . . . :o)

Tampa's about to get some nice T-storms. I'm looking toward Tampa from the NW and there's a nice looking shelf cloud. If you're in Tampa, go check it out.
Almost 8PM. Wonder what NHC would say. It would be either 50 mph (45kts) or 60 mph (50 kts). no 55 mph.
STsucks local mets promised that cold front would push through the coast earlier this week but have now said it will wash out before. Something to keep an eye on though.
hello TD 8 is 5 days a way from any land and TD 8 can be take in care of later right now we need to track Humberto not TD 8 Humberto is closer to home then TD 8 is right now whats stay on track of Humberto
Really lashing Galveston.
Humberto, according to the models concensus and short term predictors, is going to re-enter the GOM this weekend. Since the intensity is not enough to churn the cold waters off the gulf bottom, I think the discussions will be a lot more lively saturday night, and I look forward to reading it. All conditions seem favorable at this point that the most dangerous threat of Humbeto may be realized then.

The fun part about the weather is that you can talk about it.
ZooMiami I agree but what is posted on the Loops are " Fcst Points" and hence the reference to them as such.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:34 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

hello TD 8 is 5 days a way from any land and TD 8 can be take in care of later right now we need to track Humberto not TD 8 Humberto is closer to home then TD 8 is right now whats stay on track of Humberto


Taz, dont mean to be rude, but they can talk about whatever they want...people in PR and the antilles probably care more about TD8 than humberto
I don't know why the winds in Galveston are only reported as 20 gusting to 26, this is actually less than a couple hours ago. This webcam makes it look like they are nearing tropical storm force to me(unlike earlier) I'm focusing on the bottom cam with the palm trees for reference.Link
humberto sure hasnt moved much at all over the past couple hours...still seems to be about where he was a couple hours ago
Nasty bugger, Humberto, got puffed up faster than a politician claiming credit for someone else's work. the next few day ar going to be very interesting.....

Taz with all due respect I'll follow Humberto attentively but silently as any other tropical fenomenom but my interests lie on the islands and I would like to listen the opinions of every one here including yourself regarding Td 8 whenever they feel like posting it
I don't think it's an America-only thing with Taz; it's more like "whoa, dude, one storm at a time" . . . :o)

Thing is, u can miss some of the interesting formation bits with the second storm if u concentrate only on the first. That's why I'm hoping people in the Houston / West LA area keep posting so we can get the on-the-spot info about Humberto.

Also, Taz, it's good practice for when u are a working met . . .
745. Relix
Benirica, did Ada Monzon say that in the news? I didn't catch it, since well... I am optimist with the north track. But she's usually very spot on and doesn't give a *bleep* about ratings. So, if SHE did say that then I should be careful =P
right sorry i think i shut up now be for i get a ban wish i dont want
Hi, it's starting to get a little wind here in League city, 2o miles north of Galveston
this looks more like a hurricane then a TS right now huh? i say winds are more like 70 to 75 mph right now then 60 mph


Good luck and God speed to ALL being affected by Humberto.
"hello .... now we need to track Humberto not TD 8 Humberto is closer to home then TD 8 is right now whats stay on track of Humberto "

Actually TD 8 is a lot closer to home than Humberto will ever be.
Not everyone lives in America you know !

Dan
St Martin
751. beell
Just noticed the Doc's Nexrad Pic at the end of his post is updating in near real time.
If ya'll saw that already, call me slooow.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some Hurricane warnings go up soon.
I live just outside of Baton Rouge, LA and we are already getting some sporadic heavy rain.
Posted By: FLWeatherFreak91 at 11:33 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Tampa's about to get some nice T-storms. I'm looking toward Tampa from the NW and there's a nice looking shelf cloud. If you're in Tampa, go check it out.


I am across the bay in St. Pete. Beautiful looking storm. One of the many reasons why I love Fla.
Ugly bugger just seems to want to CRAWL along the coast. Needs to get inland!
I am just north of Galveston. We've had very light rain and wind. So far nothing to write home about. I just don't see the flooding event everyone is worried about, in the Houston area. I think it will be mostly east of Houston, closer to the boarder. But we shall see.
flwestcoast...right after I posted that last entry, I went outside again and it became so yellow. It was the most brilliant color. I think it has something to do with the sun going through the clouds.
Talking about forecast points, Humberto is well east of his, too. Like he saw land, hit the brakes, and started east parallel to the coast . . .

Looks like the GFS and GFDL have shifted S with the 18z model runs. For TD8.

SW, beni, etc, y'all might be right on with the more Westish track.
StormJunkie. Wunderground hasn't updated the GFS track for the 18z run. Run the 18z run at 950mb on the FSU site and you will see the GFS has gone more northerly.
seems to me all the models are doing is bouncing back in forth from trending more south to more north...obviously they dont have a good handle on it yet
The UKMET 18z run. Only goes out to 48 hours on its 18z run.
Posted By: FLWeatherFreak91 at 11:42 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

flwestcoast...right after I posted that last entry, I went outside again and it became so yellow. It was the most brilliant color. I think it has something to do with the sun going through the clouds.


You are probably right. I am right in Downtown and these clouds are some low hangers. Wouldn't be surprised for there to be a waterspout. The color is brilliant.
Rockmelikeahurricane that weather bulletin is old. Note it says moving nnw
raw t#'s from the ADT are 4.0
Taz, Humberto doesn't look quite as good on satellite, though, mainly because the cloud heights are not as high as one would expect. It's impressive how this storm has become organised so quickly, but not surprising - at least not after Felix [g]
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.8 N...94.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 122345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
700 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...RAIN BANDS OF HUMBERTO SPREADING OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.8 N...94.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
772. eye
weatherunderground has it going NNE?!
Does the possibilty exist that Humberto stalls just off the coast or skirt along the TX and LA Coast?
I think one of the most interesting parts of this website, all blogs relevant, is that you can spend a couple hundred bucks and be a part of the reporting for wunderground (you dn't need a pro station, just a station). My best buddy and I are going to put a weather station on his house and report in from Orlando...I encourage anyone able to do this to participate. The stats your personal weather station report will eventually shape predictions and may becoem part of future models...and contribute to sving lives. We all love the hurricanes, with their megaton energy outputs, and it seems like those most interested being able to help in the shaping of a science is no small deal...especially not for such a small investment of time and money....

Just a thought...

Fred
Rock: KPRC weather is a joke, always exaggerating. "Wicked Weather", "Terror in the Tropics" etc.
Interesting how the landfall area is stated so vaguely . . .
moving nne now... it isn't looking good for us in southern louisiana..
I think it will probably bullseye the Louisiana/Texas border in a few hours. Good convection is occuring NE of the system
Still no more than a nice NE breeze and clouds scooting by here in Shoreacres....but it's really getting dark down to the south. Liked that cam view from the top of the Kemah bridge (think that's where it was from).
im shocked they kept wind speeds the same
im starting to wonder if they would even make it a cane if all dvorak sites showed 4.0 or higher
That bulletin also said landfall in 10 hrs., around 9:00 p.m.
783. beell
Love that math
If we see that, we're not going to be able to handle that," Yanez said. "We just can't handle that much rain. It's moving at 4-6 mph. The formula is you divide that by 100. You could see 16 inches of rain.
POSSIBILITY FOR HUMBERTO:
What do you think the maximum sustained winds would be?
Any chance that Humberto doesn't ever become a depression and reenters the Gulf with the High building to the north?
Koritheman, I had to tend the children--thanks for your response. From satellite imagery, it looked like bands from Humberto. But aren't we supposed ot be getting a cool front too? There was talk of us getting two consecutive fronts. The second of which is supposed to be the one that sweeps Humberto East after it makes landfall??
so me get this right 90L start out in the lower gulf and was looking poof and RIP and all of that then 90L was take in off the navy site then 90L was this about gone and off the navy site and then 90L was put back up on the navy site then they call 90L a TD at 11am and now its a 60 mph TS wow
Recon is in the Far NE quadrent 29.12N 93.53W & just found 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) at the surface.
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 11:50 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

POSSIBILITY FOR HUMBERTO:
What do you think the maximum sustained winds would be?


Based upon the nhc, I would say 70mph, because they said it shouldnt become a cane so they wont make it one lol...i guess there would be a chance
Drak, it says it has been updated. Says the GFS was run at 2pm for TD 8?

Not to mention the GFS kills it late in the run on the FSU site.

For those of you interested in learning to use the FSU model site...
FSU Model Page Navigational Tutorial Video 12 min long
looks like recon is leaving...they are rising to 21000 ft
now its up to the dvorak if they are in fact leaving...so we will have to see how high dvorak goes
Posted By: StormJunkie at 11:51 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

Drak, it says it has been updated. Says the GFS was run at 2pm for TD 8?


I don't see that. It says 8:00am, 2:00pm is for the 18z runs.


Just an FYI - dad says another earthquake in Indonesia. (He is there)
Did TD 8 just make a major jog to the south (sorry if others have already mentioned... no time to backread now)? If so, when is the next time the major models will reintiate? Certainly one would think it's time for the northern leewards to become a bit more concerned with it.

And Humberto doesn't look like it wants to come ashore, does it? It certainly doesn't appear that it's going to park itself over Houston, which will be good news for the residents there.

Jo
when do we get data back from recon?
Ok SJ now i see it on there. I wasn't on there before though.
Good Night all...hows everyone

TD 8 becoming Ingrid soon




Humberto: Most impressive storm other than Dean and Felix this year

This looks Like a Lake Charles storm? NE track at this point?

Posted By: Michfan at 11:28 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.

With how warm the GOM is its not too big of a suprise to see Humberto intensify like this.



My depth finder 10 days ago read 88-89.5 just a couple miles off TX coast. Our water is HOT.

Galleria area (West of Downtown Houston) still not bad right now. Light North wind, heavy overcast. Only rain we had was pretty heavy this a.m. around 8:00.

Amazing how just down the road in our suburb, Galveston, they have quite different readings.

T.D 8 looking presistent... Wow, 50 knot storm now, before I saw no coc and convetion.But I have left for a couple of days.
Here Drak, purple line...

Also, the Ukmet does not really run at 18z. Talk about that a little in that video.
humberto is like the best 50mph TS I have ever seen...looks like a cane, and well winds should be at about 60mph or so
If you want to track the movement of a storm its better to use this, especially at night. Sometimes the convection can be deceiving.
Link
Koritheman, I had to tend the children--thanks for your response. From satellite imagery, it looked like bands from Humberto. But aren't we supposed ot be getting a cool front too? There was talk of us getting two consecutive fronts. The second of which is supposed to be the one that sweeps Humberto East after it makes landfall??

Yeah, a cold front is supposed to come down. Won't do much except knock the humidity down and give us some thunderstorms. Maybe a few degrees cooler, but nothing big. Stay safe, since Humberto may produce localized flooding.
Is it just me, or has Humberto stalled again?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:50 PM GMT on September 12, 2007.
so me get this right 90L start out in the lower gulf and was looking poof and RIP and all of that then 90L was take in off the navy site then 90L was this about gone and off the navy site and then 90L was put back up on the navy site then they call 90L a TD at 11am and now its a 60 mph TS wow


That just about sums it up, I haven't been here for all of it but it's like this year just say an invest is dying and it turns into a TD and then a TS and then watch OUT. So much for this year being a bust HUH???
Link

Something to watch...
809. beell
katadman,
you still in Mandeville?
humberto is like the best 50mph TS I have ever seen...looks like a cane, and well winds should be at about 60mph or so

I didn't think the NHC was going to issue a special advisory for Humberto. At the 11:00 PM advisory, that's when the winds will be upped, IMO.
Love the MIMIC Drak :~)

Except it only updates every 12 hrs or so.
Yea SJ now run the FSU site. The run doesn't stop there. Its still way too early to tell where this thing will go. Fish storm, a continued NW or WNW direction, or a Caribbean storm are all the posibilities.
Yeppir, bl. Someone came to my door about a half hour ago to advise me where i could take shelter if necessary.
Wal-mart must be like a MADHOUSE. Can you imagine--all of these people getting off work or picking up the kids and having only 10hrs to prepare--most of which are late night/ bedtime hours. I hope they aren't blowing it off.
hhmmm~ 119, 102, 62kts surface winds in a 2 1/2 min time? hopefully errors...
TerraNova i think you made the blog bold...
Surprising they didn't change the wind speed. I would have expected this be at 60mph on there update. I'm not going to argue though, they're the pros.
Pensacola: I guarantee there are people out on the balcony at The Spot (where the linked webcam is)having a TS party.
TerraNova i think you made the blog bold...

Ya I know fixed it. Sorry :p
well, actually, I've moved up the road acouple of miles to Abita Springs.
Katadman - where are you?
The tropics amazed me in the past 24 hrs....I never had thought that 91L would of become humberto (although i knew it had potential to develop)...all eyes were on 91L to become humberto...simply amazing.
824. beell
kam,
Staying at a good place I see. Would look like a crappy trip across I-10 to Houston tomorrow.
It looks like the eye is about to open up!
Wait a sec! SFMR just showed a 71mph wind!
i wonder if humberto will pull an "erin" and intensify after it goes inland.

would be intersting to see.
Oh I see they're leaving..so probibily bad readings.
North of New Orleans, across Lake Pontchartrain. People get real skittish here in no time.
extreme it also showed a 114kt, wonder how well that works once they are accending..
8.0 earthquake JUST HIT
Here is the quake my dad just felt, if anyone is interested. Tsunami warning, again.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00627134.php
Humberto is giving me more to watch than TD 8

Yeah, bl, but my daughter is INSISTENT that she not leave her flight out of Houston tomorrow. She will be driving in from San Antonio, though, so her route will probably be better than from here.
Could someone please give me a satelite link to TD 8? I want to see the south move everyone is talking about.
The Band just east of Galveston looks heavy. Also you can see the "partial eyewall" near the coc, where the strong tropical storm force winds are.
Precipation rates:
Blazing Saddles Cosmic....
TerraNova
thanks like the site
TD 8 satellite

LINK (Refresh)

LINK 2
humberto wobbling east!!!!
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 12:06 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Could someone please give me a satelite link to TD 8? I want to see the south move everyone is talking about.


not moving south. Look at that MIMIC link a posted. Scroll up its one of the first posts on this page.
Boatofacar...good work!
Looks as if Humberto is trying to build an Eye...
Yes, txalwaysprepared, I checked on it--is you daddy ok? That's quite a jolt.
tx, is your dad in the pacific or indian ocean area somewhere?
Galveston is getting hammered--I hope everyone is hunkerd down (or up in the flood plain).
He is in Singapore. So he's not taking the brunt of it, thankfully, but can still feel it. We were talking about Humberto on IM and he told me a quake was happening. He is fine :)
if this is joging E this could keep it more E and out in the water longer
ok i know this is way out there but knowing how slow storms can move im headd on a boston to berumda cruise starting sept 23rd does it seem possible td 8 could still be out there somewhere
Cosmicevents... Blazing Forcasters (errr saddles)
Its getting darker in Houston...
856. beell
kam,
Do rental car companies make allowances for acts of...uh...uh...unplanned global heat distribution (Humberto)?
Ditch the car and fly out of San Antonio?
Alright, thanks 456 and Drak. I think TD 8 is moving just shy of WNW right now. It does look deceptive, but Draks link cleared things up.
I guess that would be a no
Pablo - is it? Sky just turned yellow here (between Galveston and Houston)
Berto has dumped 10" of rain so far.
She is flying internationally. Would have to connect in Houston, anyway. She may just be a couple of days delayed on her trip.
Why does the NHC track for Humberto not follow the consensus of the models 2 days out. Not a little discrepancy. 180 degrees in my book is note worthy.
HUMBERTO now has a T # of 3.5 that would make the winds 70 mph
i have to agree with everyone who says humberto is going east. thats not a good thing though.

on radar, an eye type of formation is occurring, as the convention wraps around the center better. since it is moving east, that would mean more time over water and more time to possibly strengthen.

because of that, i would say it might be possible that humberto can strengthen to a minimal cat 1 hurricane of 75 mph. if it does, it would catch alot of people unprepared i think.
Now that is just NOT funny. Nearly all the models are wanting to recurve Humpy back into the Gulf? Strike again at Texas? Sheese.... I hope they models give up on that one. (Unforunately I have an idea why they are doing that. Time to do some poking around on other charts.)

I am trying to catch up to you guys.
Posted By: pablolopez26 at 12:13 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Its getting darker in Houston...

Yep, it usually does right around sundown.

Now thats funny!!!!!
Posted By: Tazmanian at 12:15 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

HUMBERTO now has a T # of 3.5 that would make the winds 70 mph


No that would make it 63mph with a pressure of 994mb
Hey guys, the thunderstorm we are getting should have a name.
Posted By: pablolopez26 at 12:13 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Its getting darker in Houston...

Yep, it usually does right around sundown.


LOL!!! That cracked me up!!
872. beell
Hope she can wait a day in San Antonio. Wish her a safe trip in any event.
Humberto doesn't seem to be moving inland hardly at all.
I am hunkered down here north of Austin on a hill top. I can easily see the tops toward Houston. Should be a great light show later on tonight.
Posted By: Boatofacar at 12:17 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Posted By: pablolopez26 at 12:13 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Its getting darker in Houston...

Yep, it usually does right around sundown.

Now thats funny!!!!!

.
.
Yes, it is. As Margie Kiefer or the hippie-dippie weatherman would say.....expect continued darkness for the next 10 hours or so, followed by periods of scattered light.
txalways, best wishes for your dad.

Fred, where does one buy the equipment for a weather station and is there a site which gives laymans instructions in setup?
hello everyone! I just got back home ad see what a lovely little suprize we have here. will someone please give me the skinny ? What does it look like for lake chaeles LA. we just opened the main shelter for all the people in fema trailers.
Humberto is reminding me of Katrina..in the fact that Katrina was a moderate TS at daybreak and by the evening it was a borderline CAT. 2 hurricane...this is a possibility with Humberto..and I think it will make landfall in western Louisiana
despite how amazing humberto looks on radar for a TS of its strength...i do think the winds will go up to at least 65mph, so it will be the strongest TS of the season so far
BBL
Blazing forecasters...I like that Chik.....that's what we should call most of the forecasters here.
Rain bands trying to make their way into Houston. Galveston getting hammered as the Right Front Quadrant comes ashore.
let me go back and say that I don't think Humberto will make it to borderline CAT. 2..but it could make it to a hurricane briefly before landfall and catch people off guard..like in south Florida with Katrina
hopefully this storm doesn't get any stronger or more rainy...as that's no good for anyone involved.

BUT...for those who like to watch these storms develop...being able to watch this thing get its act together basically all while in radar view has been pretty cool.
886. KRL
Posted By: Garnowich at 12:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.
8.0 earthquake JUST HIT


Actually showing as a 7.5 and closer to land than the 8.4 this morning. Should be another Tsunami on this one.

Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, Melting Polar Caps, Hurricanes, Tsuanmis, LOL, all we need now is a Meteor strike.
TD8 looks like a storm already, to me.
TerraNova, EXCELLENT job! I've been hoping someone would be brave enough to post a somewhat futuristic (beyond Friday) forecast, backed up by scientific reasoning, of course! Very very helpful! you are the first one to say that the ENTIRE US coastline should watch closely. All I've heard all day is Fish storm, East coast, and Florida. Thankyou for enlightening us. I love your "nutshells" --LOL!
wait so your saying another one JUST hit? i thought u were talking about the one this morning
Look at that eye forming! This is going to be crazy. Look out Louisiana!
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00627134.php

Is your Dad OK from the quake?
Posted By: KRL at 12:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Posted By: Garnowich at 12:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.
8.0 earthquake JUST HIT


Actually showing as a 7.5 and closer to land than the 8.4 this morning. Should be another Tsunami on this one.

Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, Melting Polar Caps, Hurricanes, Tsuanmis, LOL, all we need now is a Meteor strike.


Where was this quake at?
Yeah i left myself pretty wide open for that one... But it is looking a little darker than usual for a sunset... Nice and yellow right now by where i live...
The right front quadrant is east of galveston over water. Galveston is in the front left quadrant.
KRL

Meteor Strike, please do not put your foot in it....

ROFL cosmicevents.

O.K. If I read the tea leaves right, the advancing front (Fairly strong) will shove the reminants back out to sea. The GFS shows that nicely, the NAM wifs it entirely as it is currently in Brownsville. (NOT!) However it does back up the front.

Any one else have a pair of weather dice that show any other reason for the recurve instead of pulling it up ahead of it and outta here?
Posted By: usmcweathr at 12:29 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

The right front quadrant is east of galveston over water. Galveston is in the front left quadrant.


Yea i know that. I said the right front quadrant is coming ashore. Looks like it will clip Galveston.
Posted By: KRL at 12:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.
Posted By: Garnowich at 12:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Actually showing as a 7.5 and closer to land than the 8.4 this morning. Should be another Tsunami on this one.

Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, Melting Polar Caps, Hurricanes, Tsuanmis, LOL, all we need now is a Meteor strike.



What about an alien landing?
after watching HH93's radar, it certainly appears to me there is a more easterly component to humberto, any data leading anyone to believe the storm will continue to skirt the TX coast into LA and intensify? What are the possibilties of stalling?
901. KRL
Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video
Aliens sounds good... Or we could get a Lochness Monster type or something emerging from the Gulf...
KRL, If joe is already making predicitons about a U.S. landfall that should automatically be a red flag. He has nothing to base his information on that far out. Crap in, Crap out.
bajelayman2 Sorry--tried to reach my brother in Houston. This site has links to wunderground-compatible weather station providers. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/index.asp

You can buy stuff in pieces--and be a player, not just a spectator.
Drak, what is that southeast of 08L or whatever its name is now--TD9??
Humberto.
Posted By: truecajun at 12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Drak, what is that southeast of 08L or whatever its name is now--TD9??


Associate with a tropical wave. Way too far south to be of any concern, though computer models are showing development so we should watch it. Its nothing as of now.
hey darkoen what is your take on the ts
That's a pretty strong outflow moving across the Yucatan
Fred. No problem, thanks very much for the info.

I'll bookmark and review.

Thanks!
Posted By: KRL at 12:30 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video


I didn't hear any mention of the carolinas to virginia on that video clip
Hey guys... I know he's only just done one, but a new DrM blog is up
hows the movement on humberto is it back on track?
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 7:36 PM CDT on September 12, 2007.

Posted By: KRL at 12:30 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video

I didn't hear any mention of the carolinas to virginia on that video clip


Same here
915. IKE
Posted By: KRL at 7:30 PM CDT on September 12, 2007.
Joe at Accuweather saying TD8 likely Carolina's to Virginia and not curving or FL.

Joe's Forecast Video


He didn't say it wasn't Florida's...he just said it likely wouldn't recurve.
KRL He didn't say anything about those areas. He drew an arrow and said it would be between PR and Bermuda. Thats a huge area. Nothing about Virginia or Carolinas.
LouisianaBoy444 where are you?
hey Drak - is it me, or does it look like Humberto is wabbling to the east a bit?
919. SLU
On radar Humberto looks like a mature hurricane. I'm surprised that the NHC hasn't increased the winds.

Is it me, or is TD 8 trying to form a new center further south near the deep convection.
920. KRL
Posted By: TXKiwi at 12:31 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

What about an alien landing?


They're already here and have been coming here for a long long time. How do you think we went from a planet of microbes to a planet of monkeys to a planet of humans all of a sudden? If you study ancient cave carvings, for example, they've got pictures of flying saucers and beings wearing helmets coming out of them.

I live in Bridge City, Texas. That's the north end of Sabine Lake on the TX/LA border. I've live in this area all my life and have experienced storm since Audrey in 57. Here is my prediction on Humberto. The cold front washed out about 100 miles north of us yesterday. The storm will continue to turn to the NNE and parallel the upper Texas Coast between Galveston and Sabine Pass Texas. It will remain far enough offshore long enough to become a minimal Cat 1 with a windspeed of 80 miles an hour before coming ashore between Sabine Pass and Cameron Louisiana about mid morning on Thursday very near where Rita came ashore in 2005. Comments are welcome
New Blog!
Thankyou, Drak. Didn't one of the models predict a storm "eating up" TD8? Could that blob Southeast of TD8 be what the model was picking up on? I'm not concerned, just curious.
Posted By: KRL at 12:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.
Posted By: Garnowich at 12:04 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.


Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, Melting Polar Caps, Hurricanes, Tsuanmis, LOL, all we need now is a Meteor strike.


SHUSH!!!

I can't help it, I'm really sorry, give me the - for this. Did GW cause the meteor???
Humberto jogging to the east a bit?
928. TX
quakes
SLU - I saw what you are talking about - TD8 looked like it was heading south there for a moment.
930. TX
Tropical Storm Allison's Harris County Rainfall Totals, June 5-9, 2001

allison
931. TX
Tropical Storm Claudette, late July 1979

claudette 79
932. Beta
Look's like Humberto could become a Hurricane
933. TX
24hr rainfall over Houston and Harris County as of 8pm tonight

houston rain
DrM has a new blog up.
Houston appears to have dodged another one. Humberto now heading slightly north of east, tracing the coast. Weak eye did not make landfall. I wonder what the models will make of that later, and if it affects the current loop back into the gulf? For you experts, if it stays in the gulf, and still makes the loop, doesn't it then have great potential to consolidate into a much stronger storm?
Hi Tx, if u dont mind me asking...where are you at? Im in the big town of Danbury, but I grew up in LC (actually off of calder drive) and remember Claudette and all of the flooding. I'm certain no one there realizes how bad it was and that all those pretty new homes would be under water.....just wondering. Prayers are with those of u east of me with Humberto....hope he keeps on moving....(and faster, please)
Is this blog working today?

It says last post @ 8:52am GMT yet the last one I can see is this one:

rainraingoaway at 1:47 AM GMT on September 13, 2007.

Any explanations?

This morning of all mornings........(UK based)
Muff,

You need to go to the new blog here. I'm also in the UK - where are you?
Please, could someone tell me if that stalled frontal boundry that was in the Gulf had anything to do with Humburto? It seems that it formed very close to the stalled stationary front, i know from my many years of being a weather observer in the Southeast that low pressure systems form on stalled fronts in the Gulf of Mexico, but mainly in the winter and late Fall months, i found it odd that a tropical system could form like this.