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Humberto Becomes the Atlantic's First Hurricane of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:33 PM GMT on September 11, 2013

The Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013 finally arrived this Wednesday morning, as Hurricane Humberto intensified into a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane in the far Eastern Atlantic. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for the latest appearance of the season's first hurricane, since 1941. Humberto is also Earth's first tropical cyclone to reach Category 1 strength in three weeks--the last was Typhoon Trami, which hit China on August 21 as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. To go three weeks during late August and early September without a Category 1 or stronger tropical cyclone is a very unusual event. Satellite loops show that Humberto is a small but well-organized hurricane with a prominent eye, located just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto has until Thursday night to continue the intensification process, at which time high wind shear and cooler waters will likely cause weakening. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. First eye of 2013: MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Humberto, taken at 8:30 am EDT on September 11, 2013. At the time, Humberto was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Humberto was declared the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013 in the 5 am EDT advisory on September 11. Image credit: NASA.

Gabrielle hits Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gabrielle blew past Bermuda last night, bringing sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 53 mph, along with just over an inch of rain to the Bermuda Airport. Satellite loops show that high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has ripped apart Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to remain high for the next two days, which will likely keep Gabrielle from strengthening. On Friday and Saturday, moisture from Gabrielle or its remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Storm Gabrielle at 9:03 pm AST September 10, 2013. At the time, Gabrielle had top winds of 60 mph, and strong upper level winds out of the west had pushed Gabrielle's heaviest thunderstorms to the east side of the center of circulation. The island is under the white "+" at the center of the image. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

93L a threat to develop in the Gulf of Mexico
A trough of low pressure over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (Invest 93L) is generating heavy rains over the peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops and radar loops from Mexico and Belize show that 93L has a decent amount of spin and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. After 93L emerges over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Thursday, the disturbance has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression as it crosses the Bay of Campeche. The atmosphere will be unusually moist, ocean temperatures will be a very warm 29°C (84°F), and wind shear will be a moderate 10 - 15 knots, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week, and it appears that 93L's heaviest rains will stay south of Texas. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 40% and 5-day odds of 70%. Due to its slow motion, 93L will have more time to intensify than the other storms we've seen in the Bay of Campeche this year--Tropical Storm Barry, Tropical Storm Fernand, and Tropical Depression Eight--and 93L will likely pack heavier rains and higher winds at landfall than these three previous storms.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A buoy at 22.2N 94.0W saw an impressive pressure drop, down to 1008 millibars, just a while ago. That's a long way for the pressure to be so low. I wouldn't be surprised if 93L was in the 1002-1003mb range already.

Quoting 1495. IKE:

Love bugs are horrible here. Washed my car yesterday plus had to do the windshield again.


IKE the love bugs aren't so bad along the coast but the biting flies will pick you up and carry you away. Working in the yard last night mowing the grass and I feel pain in my finger and see that a fly had bit right through the mechanix gloves I was wearing. I guess that was the one spot I didn't spray bug spray. I think the wet summer has a lot to do with it. Now though we can't buy any rain. I guess it's feast or famine for us.
Quoting 1495. IKE:

Love bugs are horrible here. Washed my car yesterday plus had to do the windshield again.


Mornin' Ike!

I read somewhere that aside from cars, the number one predator of them are feral pigs.. they root up the larvae before they emerge..

lovebugs didn't give me Dengue Fever...

skeeters DID.. :(
1505. VR46L
Good Morning Folks

93L not as bad looking as it had been way earlier this morning!

Click on Image to see Loop

GOES-East 4 km IR4 Floater 1

1506. IKE

Quoting 69Viking:


IKE the love bugs aren't so bad along the coast but the biting flies will pick you up and carry you away. Working in the yard last night mowing the grass and I feel pain in my finger and see that a fly had bit right through the mechanix gloves I was wearing. I guess that was the one spot I didn't spray bug spray. I think the wet summer has a lot to do with it. Now though we can't by any rain. I guess it's feast or famine for us.
I think it is all the rain earlier. Yes...it's dry now. Almost a July pattern in September.


Quoting indianrivguy:


Mornin' Ike!

I read somewhere that aside from cars, the number one predator of them are feral pigs.. they root up the larvae before they emerge..

lovebugs didn't give me Dengue Fever...

skeeters DID.. :(
Morning.
Hurricane Humberto
1508. IKE
Atlantic is alive this morning. Crow to the down-casters. The switch turned on. Fortunately nothing affecting lower 48. Maybe Ingrid rains in Texas.

Feel sorry for Mexico with Ingrid.
1509. IKE
With Gabrielle.....


1m
Shear has relaxed and there is ridging over the system... small enough to feedback. hit on Nova Scotia Sat am
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 12/0900
UTC EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W ALONG 21N91W TO
A 1005 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. IT APPEARS THE
LOW HAS REDEVELOPED W OF WHERE IT WAS LOCATED PREVIOUSLY. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
AS SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE
CREATING A BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-91W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF W CUBA...YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
Quoting 1473. IKE:

Same here. We need one good cold front to come through and our season will be waning.


I checked the 10 day forecast and I think we all might get our wish next weekend if the forcast holds true. It shows a 60% chance of rain next Friday and Saturday with Highs of 85 and lows in the 60's! Can't wait to see what it says for Sunday on after the rains, hopefully a good blast of cooler air.
Good morning! I have a quick question. I live in SE Tx and have looked at NWS forecasts for Houston/ Galveston as well as Lake Charles, both do not mention with certainty that 93l is Mexico bound. I also notice next week's forecast on Accuweather shows rain everyday. I assume if we had high pressure, we would not have those rain chances. What is keeping 93L from being pulled northward? Thanks in advance.
1513. IKE
288 hour 6Z GFS....


Quoting 1500. daddyjames:


Four if you count the one over TX.



You are correct sir! I actually saw that one and missed the one in the Caribbean!
1515. Matt74
Quoting 1486. daddyjames:


6Z GFS accumulated precipitation. 93L will (in and of itself) not necessarily make it to TX. But enough moisture will be tossed that way to bring some rain, perhaps. Not expected anytime soon, though. However, go with the local mets - I certainly am not a forecaster.



We'll see what happens.

Edit: BTW - I did indicate where I got that from in my original post.

Ok. Thanks for the info. Yea I see in your original post you said GFS. I overlooked it. My bad.
The Eye is coming out!
1517. FOREX
Quoting 1504. GeoffreyWPB:


is that big blowup the center of 93L emerging over water, or is 93L still over land.
Borderline major for Humberto in 9 days from 0z ECMWF:

1513! Ouch!
Quoting 1513. IKE:
288 hour 6Z GFS....




I think 93L could be an interesting one to forecast if it gets spun up into a storm. If it slowly drifts North and strengthens a front could pick it up later next week. Ever since Opal I never discount anything that gets into the BOC this time of year!
1521. IKE

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
1513! Ouch!
See if it persists.
1522. GetReal
Quoting 1515. Matt74:
Ok. Thanks for the info. Yea I see in your original post you said GFS. I overlooked it. My bad.


Hoping you get the rain, but spread out so it does not cause any additional problems.

Like that observed in Boulder, CO last night. Man, they got swamped.

Boulder flood: At least 1 killed as heavy flooding continues across county
Quoting 1513. IKE:
288 hour 6Z GFS....




I saw that. Could be a hint of things to come.
The Caribbean train of low pressures have been keeping the BOC the hot spot this season.

This could create a very dangerous setup in a couple weeks. Texas/western GOM will be the first area to get shut down for the season. When that happens the middle gulf coast to Fl. need to be ready.

So there are no arguments or drama here in the first time for 24 hours.

Might as well enjoy it while it lasts.


Well, Humberto looks like it is starting to weaken and accelerate in movement as it goes north.

Ciudad Carmen Mexico - on the coast near the center of 93L reporting 79 degrees, SE winds 23 mph.

1527. JLPR2
Even though 93L looks great and Humberto's little eye is visible what surprised me the most was Gabrielle's comeback.

1528. VR46L
Quoting 1518. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Borderline major for Humberto in 9 days from 0z ECMWF:



It has to be transitioning pretty shortly after

*PUTS Brown bag around mouth to stop hyperventilating
The flooding situation around Denver and points north continues, and could get worse today as monsoonal moisture continues to flow from the south, dumping prodigious amounts of rain across the area:

rain

4" - 6" of rain is something Gulf Coast residents can take in stride. But it's a far different deal in mountainous regions...
invest 93L will be a cat two hurricane
Quoting 1530. hurricanes2018:
invest 93L will be a cat two hurricane


Eeeehh, maybe a Cat 1.
Quoting 1527. JLPR2:
Even though 93L looks great and Humberto's little eye is visible what surprised me the most was Gabrielle's comeback.



You forgot ex 98L.
What happen to everyone saying the stonger the system the more to the north? I think models will pull 93l more north after it becomes TD!
1534. FOREX
Quoting 1533. gulfbreeze:
What happen to everyone saying the stonger the system the more to the north? I think models will pull 93l more north after it becomes TD!


Strong high pressure I believe, not sure.
Quoting 1527. JLPR2:
Even though 93L looks great and Humberto's little eye is visible what surprised me the most was Gabrielle's comeback.



Gabby's a fighter. But she's one of those lop sided systems with basically no convection on the West side of the circulation (due to shear blowing the convection to the East.
But I'll have to admit, Gabby has been an over achiever and refuses to give up.
See #1548...

Closer:

AL, 93, 2013091206, , BEST, 0, 186N, 905W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting 1518. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Borderline major for Humberto in 9 days from 0z ECMWF:



GFS agrees with this solution, Humberto could be a significant ACE provider as it'll be around for days.
1538. viman
Is it me or does any one else see Ex-98L as a problem down the road?
Quoting 1534. FOREX:


Strong high pressure I believe, not sure.
But there is a front coming.
Quoting 1537. CybrTeddy:


GFS agrees with this solution, Humberto could be a significant ACE provider as it'll be around for days.


Humberto padding the stats? And potential Ingrid adding to it as well . . . :)
Quoting 1538. viman:
Is it me or does any one else see Ex-98L as a problem down the road?


I agree. I do not see anything that may prevent ex-98L from re-establishing itself. This is the time of the year when any swirl can become a troublemaker.
1542. JLPR2
Quoting 1532. Tropicsweatherpr:


You forgot ex 98L.


Meh, not really worth mentioning.

Quoting 1517. FOREX:


is that big blowup the center of 93L emerging over water, or is 93L still over land.


According to the NHC, the LLC has emerged into the BOC

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 12/0900
UTC EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W ALONG 21N91W TO
A 1005 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. IT APPEARS THE
LOW HAS REDEVELOPED W OF WHERE IT WAS LOCATED PREVIOUSLY. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
AS SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL.
Quoting 1536. Neapolitan:
Closer:

AL, 93, 2013091206, , BEST, 0, 186N, 905W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Might become Ingrid later today.
Quoting 1537. CybrTeddy:


GFS agrees with this solution, Humberto could be a significant ACE provider as it'll be around for days.
Unless it stay weak for several days.
Ex 98L swirl approaching warmer SSTs. Have to escape from that ULL to the NE.
Quoting 1542. JLPR2:


Meh, not really worth mentioning.



Too much shear from the ULL to its NE.





Quoting 1488. indianrivguy:


cold fronts kill mosquitoes.. I'm ALL for that...


Hey! So glad to see you back on! been hoping you were ok :)

But yes, one thing that would keep me from going many places, as they LOVE me. Even here, as was so hot this summer, could hardly go out to take photos as was getting bit every time, and I swell up really bad around the bites and look a mess...and just ITCH obvs LOL I did discover, if I soaked the bite with vinegar immediately after feeling a bite, it wouldn't swell, but that only worked when got bit on the garden, as don't normally carry vinegar on me LOL

Looking back a bit, a Happy belated Bday to the Doc. And very sad to see Gro go.

Do hope 93L can bring Texas some rain.

Still pretty mild here in the day, but getting chillier at night. near 70' and quite muggy today and been raining on and off all week. Everything's still green though, this time the last 2 years, the trees were already well into autumn mode!

Take care all
A little bit more:

AL, 93, 2013091212, , BEST, 0, 195N, 927W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting 1543. daddyjames:


According to the NHC, the LLC has emerged into the BOC

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 12/0900
UTC EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W ALONG 21N91W TO
A 1005 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. IT APPEARS THE
LOW HAS REDEVELOPED W OF WHERE IT WAS LOCATED PREVIOUSLY. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
AS SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL.


That would mean less of a chance it will affect TX if it redevelop West of where it was.
Quoting 1538. viman:
Is it me or does any one else see Ex-98L as a problem down the road?

It may develop northeast of the Bahamas but a trough should recurve it away from the USA. Maybe a threat to Bermuda.
Quoting 1539. gulfbreeze:
But there is a front coming.

Looks like the front flattens out/stalls out over Texas and high presurre builds in blocking 93L from moving north.
Quoting 1549. CaneHunter031472:


That would mean less of a chance it will affect TX if it redevelop West of where it was.


I don't think that matters at the moment, too much. Where it goes may be how long it hangs out in the BOC and how strong it eventually becomes. Its not expected to go anywhere fast.
Trough affecting Barbados & Ex 98L lurkin jus NE

http://www.brohavwx.com/stormact.jpg

1555. VR46L
Suns up..


GOES-East 4 km VIS/IR2 Floater 1

Loop embedded
boulder

Divers are being rushed out...
1007 mb low, has issues though.
I know this was discussed yesterday, but I was wondering what happened to Grothar? I tried looking back and couldn't find anything. In weather related business, I wish it would stop raining every morning, then again in the afternoons.
Quoting 1558. SecretStormNerd:
I know this was discussed yesterday, but I was wondering what happened to Grothar? I tried looking back and couldn't find anything. In weather related business, I wish it would stop raining every morning, then again in the afternoons.


He left due to personal issues unrelated to the blog.
Quoting 1558. SecretStormNerd:
I know this was discussed yesterday, but I was wondering what happened to Grothar? I tried looking back and couldn't find anything. In weather related business, I wish it would stop raining every morning, then again in the afternoons.


For personal reasons, Grothar has determined that it would be best to take a sabbatical. His health has been an issue.

I posted the statement he made the other night in this blog - see post 319.
Quoting 1552. daddyjames:


I don't think that matters at the moment, too much. Where it goes may be how long it hangs out in the BOC and how strong it eventually becomes. Its not expected to go anywhere fast.


I was wondering about that. If it strenghtens fast and becomes a TS or even a hurricane, woudn't it tend to take a more northerly track?
Quoting 1556. Neapolitan:
boulder

Divers are being rushed out...


Things are not looking good for them:

Colorado flood emergency: 2 killed, streets impassable, dam breached

"The weather forecast for northern Colorado Thursday calls for periods of moderate to heavy rain, with rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour."
Busy out there! gonna be another dusty dry day in central Louisiana


Quoting 1562. CaneHunter031472:


I was wondering about that. If it strenghtens fast and becomes a TS or even a hurricane, woudn't it tend to take a more northerly track?


I think that is highly dependent upon the strength and timing of the trough to the north, and rebuilding of the ridge of high pressure. It's a bit far out to know for sure.
1566. Torito
Dat eye forming.


1567. Torito
really tiny eye.

1569. Torito
Gabby trying to regenerate AGAIN....

Quoting 1563. daddyjames:


Things are not looking good for them:

Colorado flood emergency: 2 killed, streets impassable, dam breached
Look at these Mesonet 24-hour precipitation totals:

mesonet
1571. Torito
Not much is going on with 90E, doesnt seem to want to take the time it has to form while it still can.

1572. RTLSNK
Please keep comments on topic.
Take everything else to your personal blogs.
Thank you.
Quoting 1570. Neapolitan:
Look at these Mesonet 24-hour precipitation totals:

mesonet


Unbelieveable - with only more predicted today. Newspaper article is stating that they could see rain rates of up to 2 inches/hour.

Like you said earlier - nothing terribly unusual in SoFl or LA, but not good up there.
1574. VR46L
One thing is for sure, 93L is exploding

1576. Torito
97w looking better today.

The rain missed us again.... showers now affecting PR and northern windwards.

There is almost always a dry spot when a squall line approaches the Lesser Antilles. Almost always it moves through my area, like last night.

Unfair.
EX98L please...
I've never recalled a hurricane moving N and NE up Africa....

Have a fantastic day all, my day begins.

Hoping that the folks in CO don't get too much more rain, that CaribBoy gets some rain (please for our sanity - :D), and that everyone has a good day.

Catch you later.
Quoting 1567. Torito:
really tiny eye.



I would put that in the forming eye category.

Here's a small eye - nice a cleanly structured eye wall. But its not really fair comparing something to Gilbert (one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin).


Good Morning. Enjoying watching Humberto spin out in the Atlantic this morning.........Have not seen an Atlantic Hurricane in a long time now...........
Quoting 1577. CaribBoy:
The rain missed us again.... showers now affecting PR and northern windwards.

There is almost always a dry spot when a squall line approaches the Lesser Antilles. Almost always it moves through my area, like last night.

Unfair.


Good morning everyone

I was REALLY hoping you would get something out of it!

Over here it's a breezy blue sky with a few clouds. Haven't checked the forecast for the rest of the day.

Lindy
what is going on here
1585. VR46L
Quoting 1579. RitaEvac:
I've never recalled a hurricane moving N and NE up Africa....



It definately has moved in a poleward direction very early ..its practically Just tracking North..

1586. barbamz
Hello (or still Good morning?) from Europe with two spectacular waterspouts from Croatia (Rovinij) yesterday.

Visible Satellite Humberto
Dry, hot weather for TX, rest of week


Good morning...and good morning 93l
Quoting 1588. RitaEvac:
Dry, hot weather for TX, rest of week


Sorry Rita...hope 93l brings come relief.
1591. Torito
Someone want to tackle this question?

Can hurricanes possibly strengthen in cooler waters if all other conditions are favorable for development?
Quoting 1590. hurricanehanna:


Sorry Rita...hope 93l brings come relief.


Would be nice, but it isn't happening.




(anti jinx)
1593. Patrap
93L is really starting to worry me. Most of the model forecasts see it looping in the BoC due to interaction with EPac's 90E. That might cause it to weaken, or strengthen, but it has a lot more time to intensify than Fernand, Barry, and TD 8.
1595. Torito
Quoting 1594. Ryan1000:
93L is really starting to worry me. Most of the model forecasts see it looping in the BoC due to interaction with EPac's 90E. That might cause it to weaken, or strengthen, but it has a lot more time to intensify than Fernand, Barry, and TD 8.


Yea its looking at about a week to sit there before it really has to move at all.
Quoting 1560. CybrTeddy:


He left due to personal issues unrelated to the blog.


Hope his health is doing o.k :-/ thanks for responiding.
Quoting 1594. Ryan1000:
93L is really starting to worry me. Most of the model forecasts see it looping in the BoC due to interaction with EPac's 90E. That might cause it to weaken, or strengthen, but it has a lot more time to intensify than Fernand, Barry, and TD 8.


local mets are calling for rain chances early part of next week due to "topical moisture"...sounds like it could be around for a while
Winds have switched from North 26 mph to SE 12 mph at Ciudad Del Carmen on the Mexican Coast.
That would appear to indicate that 93L is moving out into the BOC.
Or now fully out in the BOC.
Good morning from the woods!! Kinda an overcast morning this AM but TOTALLY fine since evapotransport has been through the roof these past few weeks. The plants and trees are beginning to feel the stress!!

OMG BIG sigh of relief. We escaped the YELLOW crayon AGAIN. *Breaths out slowly and relaxing*

Nat

Ok I got myself worked up over that drought monitor for nothing. I need to breathe easy now. We're okay Natalie. We're okay....
Quoting 1584. hurricanes2018:
what is going on here
Good morning . 98L?
Humberto is my type of Cane. Looking sexy and staying away from land. :)
Quoting 1558. SecretStormNerd:
I know this was discussed yesterday, but I was wondering what happened to Grothar? I tried looking back and couldn't find anything. In weather related business, I wish it would stop raining every morning, then again in the afternoons.




Missing Dexter as well!
Quoting 1601. SouthernIllinois:
Ok I got myself worked up over that drought monitor for nothing. I need to breathe easy now. We're okay Natalie. We're okay....


SETTLE DOWN!!

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Quoting 1591. Torito:
Someone want to tackle this question?

Can hurricanes possibly strengthen in cooler waters if all other conditions are favorable for development?


Usually no. Once water temps drop below 80 degrees (upper 70s or so), tropical systems usually start to weaken.
But there have been a few exceptions. But usually the storm starts to take on non-tropical characteristics.
Quoting 1605. RitaEvac:


SETTLE DOWN!!

I WILL. haha. Got Summertime Sadness in my head now so smiles are overtaking my slowly.... :) *Glows*
Quoting 1604. HoraceDebussyJones:




Missing Dexter as well!

Me too!!!!!
Quoting 1608. SouthernIllinois:

I WILL. Got Summertime Sadness in my head now so smiles are overtaking my slowly.... :) *Glows*


lol
something spinning at 20 west!
Quoting 1611. hurricanes2018:
something spinning at 20 west!

Prolly a new wave. And a new something to keep an eye on.
1614. Torito
Quoting 1607. Sfloridacat5:


Usually no. Once water temps drop below 80 degrees (upper 70s or so), tropical systems usually start to weaken.
But there have been a few exceptions. But usually the storm starts to take on non-tropical characteristics.


yea that's what I thought, storms turning subtropical-ex-tropical characteristics as soon as they hit that water. Just wanted to make sure, considering the fact that gabby is hanging in there, trying to intensify back to where it was yesterday. its getting that naked swirl covered up again, might be something to watch...
Probably won't take 93L very long to be upgraded to T.D. now that its moving into the BOC.
Recon goes out today...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 12/1515Z C. 13/0900Z
D. 19.5N 93.0W D. 19.5N 94.0W
E. 12/1745Z TO 12/2100Z E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1530
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

I was hoping for the very least a tropical storm this season...I'm declaring shenanigans!
1618. Torito
Quoting 1611. hurricanes2018:
something spinning at 20 west!


its in a decent spot for this time of the year, compared to humberto which was a bit more north than normal for this time. might have a chance to be a potent storm if conditions stay fairly favorable down there.
1619. HCW
Impactwx

Disturbance 50 Advisory 10
Issued: Thursday, September 12th 2013 6:20am CDT

Current Position: 18.8N / 91.0W
Geographic Reference: Near eastern Bay of Campeche
Movement: West-northwest at 7 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Chance of Development Within 48 hours: 75 percent
Chance of Development Within 120 hours: 90 percent

Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have increased the chance of development within the next 48 hours to 75 percent. The chance that the system will become a hurricane was increased to 55 percent as the latest model guidance indicates a more intense system than previously forecast. In addition, the latest model guidance has shifted to the north. Therefore, the track was shifted to the north. The system is now forecast to move inland near Tampico.

Our Forecast
Disturbance 50 is near the Bay of Campeche. It should move over the water in a few hours. Environmental conditions are currently marginal for further development as there is some wind shear present. This shear is expected to weaken during the next 24 hours. Nearly every model indicates that the system will develop into at least a tropical storm. Therefore, the chance of development remains at 90 percent. The models also now indicate a more intense storm. Therefore, the hurricane chances were increased slightly, to 55 percent.

The model guidance has shifted north of the previous forecast track. This may be in response to an upper low over Texas. Our forecast has also shifted somewhat to the north and indicates a landfall near Tampico. This track is to the south of some of the more reliable computer models. While it remains highly likely that the system will move into Mexico, a track closer to extreme southern Texas cannot be ruled out entirely.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Belize/Yucatan Peninsula: 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible through this afternoon.

Guatemala / Southern Mexico: Very heavy rains are likely as the system passes over the high mountains. Additional accumulations in isolated locations of 10 to 15 inches are possible. Flooding and mudslides are likely in some areas.

Veracruz to Matamoros, Mexico
Wind: At final landfall, tropical storm force winds are likely to extend 100 miles north of the center and 70 miles south of the center. Near the center, sustained winds of hurricane force are possible.
Rain: 8 to 16 inches of rain are likely with isolated totals of 20 to 25 inches possible extending 150 miles to the right of the path and 100 miles to the left of the path of the center. The highest totals are most likely to occur over mountainous terrain.
Surge: A storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above normal will be possible within 50 miles of where the center makes landfall.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche: Numerous squalls are expected to migrate slowly from east to west Thursday through the weekend. Tropical storm force winds may occur as soon as tomorrow afternoon, with hurricane force winds possible in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

Offshore Lower Texas Coast: Any impacts would likely be limited to squalls associated with the very outer rainbands and large swells arriving over the weekend.

The next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.

Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Nicholas Kosar
Quoting 1578. CaribBoy:
EX98L please...

It's still hanging in there! Maybe a seed for a Caribbean storm and then somewhere beyond.

And of course hopefully rain for you.
It just keeps doing its "thing."

And BTW, that dry air is finally starting to fizzle here in the East-Central Gulf Coast. Can't wait until the rain starts kicking in again!
Only saving grace for TX would be, system stalls around for days in BOC giving time for the trough to dig down into the plains and pulling it northbound straight into TX some time next week, BOOYA!
It looks like dry air may be starting to get into Humberto's western circulation based on visible imagery. I imagine he has probably peaked.

1623. Torito
Quoting 1617. SecretStormNerd:
I was hoping for the very least a tropical storm this season...I'm declaring shenanigans!


where abouts would the landfall location have to be? im all the way up here in Maryland where a storm hits directly once every 10 years or so. Still waiting for a big one to hit here.
With ULL moving down TX coast towards the SW, hard to see system going into MX anytime soon

Quoting 1621. RitaEvac:
Only saving grace for TX would be, system stalls around for days in BOC giving time for the trough to dig down into the plains and pulling it northbound straight into TX some time next week, BOOYA!

BOOYA! I'm shifting all my hopes to you Guys now. Had to focus on Drying out Viking and the FL panhandle but now that that is under control time to wish and pray that the heavens will open copiously with moisture over you all. Just not Colorado flood style. :/
Tropical storm Ingrid gonna be a cat 4
Watch she is ri as we speak
Humberto is dying
Ingrid going to be the storm of the century
1627. Torito
Quoting 1626. Hurricanemarian:
Tropical storm Ingrid gonna be a cat 4
Watch she is ri as we speak
Humberto is dying
Ingrid going to be the storm of the century


a cat 1 can be the storm of the century, if it catches everyone off guard, like hurricane sandy.

I mean yea, it got cat 3, but still it had cat 1 strength at landfall.
Quoting 1624. RitaEvac:
With ULL moving down TX coast towards the SW, hard to see system going into MX anytime soon



I was just thinking the same thing. That ULL could actually help the system organize and pull it poleward on the eastern side of the ULL right into TX
Quoting 1621. RitaEvac:
Only saving grace for TX would be, system stalls around for days in BOC giving time for the trough to dig down into the plains and pulling it northbound straight into TX some time next week, BOOYA!


Hmmmm...glass half full today?

Stranger things have happened =)
Renumber within the hour.
As the models continue to shift around, it's worth noting that the 06Z GFS brings some decent rains back into the southern half of Texas.



If we could manage that, I would be fairly happy.
1634. Torito
Quoting 1626. Hurricanemarian:
Tropical storm Ingrid gonna be a cat 4
Watch she is ri as we speak
Humberto is dying
Ingrid going to be the storm of the century


"I" storms are usually potent, for some unknown reason. :P
Quoting 1627. Torito:


a cat 1 can be the storm of the century, if it catches everyone off guard, like hurricane sandy.


But you will not get a cat 1 like Sandy in the GOM. Sandy was a freak of a storm that we may never seen again in our life time.
Quoting 1629. DavidHOUTX:


I was just thinking the same thing. That ULL could actually help the system organize and pull it poleward on the eastern side of the ULL right into TX


Where the hell did this ULL come from?! that would sling shot it northbound if it continues going SW, lol

Quoting 1633. 1900hurricane:
As the models continue to shift around, it's worth noting that the 06Z GFS brings some decent rains back into the southern half of Texas.



If we could manage that, I would be fairly happy.

Indeed. Great news for the Hill County and Lake Travis & Company. BohonkWeatherman will be happy too.
Quoting 1630. ihave27windows:


Hmmmm...glass half full today?

Stranger things have happened =)


BOOYA!
Quoting 1638. RitaEvac:


BOOYA!

lmao. you are making me laugh today!!
Quoting 1624. RitaEvac:
With ULL moving down TX coast towards the SW, hard to see system going into MX anytime soon



Rita, don't mean to sound silly, what will that ULL do to 93L?

sheri
1641. Torito
Quoting 1635. Sfloridacat5:


But you will not get a cat 1 like Sandy in the GOM. Sandy was a freak of a storm that we may never seen again in our life time.


Indeed, but just throwing out the idea of weak storms being just as deadly as well defined cat 5 storms, it all depends on how prepared the people that are in the danger zone are.
Quoting 1632. HurricaneAndre:
Renumber within the hour.


They will wait for recon that goes this afternoon.
1643. HCW
Quoting 1632. HurricaneAndre:
Renumber within the hour.


Yes and look for watches and warnings very soon for 93L
Quoting 1609. SouthernIllinois:

Me too!!!!!


Missing Grothar too.

What happened to Dexter???
Quoting 1624. RitaEvac:
With ULL moving down TX coast towards the SW, hard to see system going into MX anytime soon

more like stalled out rita. I was seeing the same too
1646. TXCWC
Quoting 1633. 1900hurricane:
As the models continue to shift around, it's worth noting that the 06Z GFS brings some decent rains back into the southern half of Texas.



If we could manage that, I would be fairly happy.


I noticed that too...not only the GFS (heavy rains too)



But the FIM as well (also heavy benificial rains)


Core of the system does not have to actually track into TX IT JUST HAS TO GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GET THOSE RAINS INTO THE STATE
Quoting 1639. SouthernIllinois:

lmao. you are making me laugh today!!


We're on a roll in TX, Systems convection in BOC booty so smooth, can't believe it's not butter. Where is BohonkWeatherman, I have no idea.
Quoting 1640. catastropheadjuster:


Rita, don't mean to sound silly, what will that ULL do to 93L?

sheri


Have no idea like the experts, wait and see
Quoting 1644. longislander102:


Missing Grothar too.

What happened to Dexter???

Probably out on a walk with Mik. I know Ains posts very early (I'm still all cuddly in my bed with my blankys). Everyone's schedule has like changed now that Autumn is upon us. We must adjust!! haha
Quoting 1641. Torito:


Indeed, but just throwing out the idea of weak storms being just as deadly as well defined cat 5 storms, it all depends on how prepared the people that are in the danger zone are.


Yes, a large cat 1 is more distructive than a small cat 3. That has been proven.
Quoting 1629. DavidHOUTX:


I was just thinking the same thing. That ULL could actually help the system organize and pull it poleward on the eastern side of the ULL right into TX
and people was talking crazy to me last night like i was tryna say that but no i got chewed behind it and thanks Rita for pointing it out.
1652. HCW
Quoting 1625. SouthernIllinois:

BOOYA! I'm shifting all my hopes to you Guys now. Had to focus on Drying out Viking and the FL panhandle but now that that is under control time to wish and pray that the heavens will open copiously with moisture over you all. Just not Colorado flood style. :/


Good morning sunshine! Still waiting on your tree expertise in email!
Quoting 1647. RitaEvac:


We're on a roll in TX, Systems convection in BOC booty so smooth, can't believe it's not butter. Where is BohonkWeatherman, I have no idea.

Glad the mojo has visited you Guys. I want a wet offseason for y'll like late 2011 into 2012!!
Quoting 1653. 69Viking:


Good morning sunshine! Still waiting on your tree expertise in email!

Oh crap!! My bad. Getting offline soon, but will check in before days' end. I promise!!! lol

Morning by the way!! :)
Quoting 1629. DavidHOUTX:


I was just thinking the same thing. That ULL could actually help the system organize and pull it poleward on the eastern side of the ULL right into TX
The problem with that is that the ULL is very high in the troposphere and filling in. The low, while quite evident at 300 mb and above, barely has any kind of signature at 500 mb, so it will probably exert very little steering influence on 93L.



Current 300 mb winds



Current 500 mb heights and vorticity. Winds can be found here if would rather do an apples-to-apples comparison.
1657. GetReal
buoy in BOC:

1658. Torito
It looks like humberto is in water temperatures of 77-81 degrees right now.

Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

I see 93L is holding on this morning.





Radar from Sabancuy on the BoC side of the Yucatan. Looks like that may be where the CoC is located.
Quoting 1652. HCW:


A few models trending a little further north now...
1661. TXCWC
Quoting 1624. RitaEvac:
With ULL moving down TX coast towards the SW, hard to see system going into MX anytime soon



Hence most of the models showing system at least 4 days over open water before coming ashore - consensus now somewhere on the Mid-MX coastline (which is an eternity for tracks to continue to shift either further north or south)
Quoting 1658. Torito:
It looks like humberto is in water temperatures of 77-81 degrees right now.


He's taking a route like Julia did in 2010.
Julia was my favorite cane behind Isaac.
Quoting 1655. SouthernIllinois:

Oh crap!! My bad. Getting offline soon, but will check in before days' end. I promise!!! lol

Morning by the way!! :)


Sure, sure, heard that before LOL! I'm heading to the hunting camp tomorrow so hopefully before I leave since we don't have internet service in the Alabama backwoods!
Quarter of an inch yesterday!! Nat is happy. :)



Look at ex-98L
Raspy voice playing on radio, summertime sadness
1668. Torito
Quoting 1663. SouthernIllinois:
Julia was my favorite cane behind Isaac.


What about ivan? I would love to see one of those again but in cat 1 or 2 strength compared to the destructive cat 5 it was.

Quoting 1664. 69Viking:


Sure, sure, heard that before LOL! I'm heading to the hunting camp tomorrow so hopefully before I leave since we don't have internet service in the Alabama backwoods!

That's how it SHOULD be. You go out with Mother Nature in the wilderness to hunt and enjoy God's beauty you have NO BUSINESS having access to GPS and phones, and Ipads and that crap. Keep it simple. Keep it real!! haha. BTW....bucks are really coming around my area now. Yah!!!
1670. Torito
Quoting 1662. SouthernIllinois:

He's taking a route like Julia did in 2010.


humbertos track looks a little more north trending than Julia, but it might be close by the end of the storm. :P
Quoting 1667. RitaEvac:
Raspy voice playing on radio, summertime sadness

Got my red dress on tonight....
Gabrielle still percolating. ;) Funny-looking to see that convection pop up out of all that water vapor.

Quoting 1666. WxGeekVA:


Look at ex-98L


Look at the pressure drop south EX -98L
1674. GetReal


Very nice structure; IMO RECON may find TS Ingrid upon arriving on scene.
Quoting 1668. Torito:


What about ivan? I would love to see one of those again but in cat 1 or 2 strength compared to the destructive cat 5 it was.



Plz, no Crazy Ivan's! ;)
Quoting 1583. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Good morning everyone

I was REALLY hoping you would get something out of it!

Over here it's a breezy blue sky with a few clouds. Haven't checked the forecast for the rest of the day.

Lindy




Good morning Lindy,

We only had a couple of light showers... with accumulations ranging from 0.05 and 0.1 inch.

Currently the weather is fairly decent. We also have very light to calm winds, and it already feels very HOT!

Also here is what the Puerto Rican NWS said this morning :

OVERALL...A
FAIRLY MOIST WEATHER PATTERN IS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.
Quoting 1657. GetReal:
buoy in BOC:


pretty good pressure drop...could see TD soon
Quoting 1621. RitaEvac:
Only saving grace for TX would be, system stalls around for days in BOC giving time for the trough to dig down into the plains and pulling it northbound straight into TX some time next week, BOOYA!


Are you crazy? I don't care how bad you want moisture in Texas this storm have potential to be a very strong hurricane at landfall!!!!!!
1679. Torito
Quoting 1672. moonlightcowboy:
Gabrielle still percolating. ;) Funny-looking to see that convection pop up out of all that water vapor.



I think it is trying to regenerate.
Quoting 1659. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

I see 93L is holding on this morning.





Radar from Sabancuy on the BoC side of the Yucatan. Looks like that may be where the CoC is located.


93L is now in the BOC based on the weather information from Ciudad del Carmen Mexico. 93 passed right over that location.
Winds were Northerly up to 26 mph with higher gusts. Now winds are southerly 12 mph at that location.
That indicates that the center of 93L has moved into the BOC.
Quoting 1668. Torito:


What about ivan? I would love to see one of those again but in cat 1 or 2 strength compared to the destructive cat 5 it was.


Ivan? Um. Not exactly what I had in mind. Too destructive.
Quoting 1671. SouthernIllinois:

Got my red dress on tonight....


We waving a red flag on the TX coast trying to bring rain onshore
93L looks like a Depression....NOW
1684. Torito
Quoting 1681. SouthernIllinois:

Ivan? Um. Not exactly what I had in mind. Too destructive.


Yea, that's why I say cat 1 instead of cat 5. :3
1685. Patrap
Yeah dem Cat 1's ain't nuttin,

Spit'
Quoting 1678. HurricaneCamille:


Are you crazy? I don't care how bad you want moisture in Texas this storm have potential to be a very strong hurricane at landfall!!!!!!


I'm not crazy...I'm insane and plead the 5th
1687. GetReal
1688. Torito
Quoting 1675. moonlightcowboy:


Plz, no Crazy Ivan's! ;)


I love the track it followed. :P
1689. TXCWC
Fingers crossed trend north continues and not back south in future runs...at this point I would be happy with that HWFI 12Z run





Quoting 1656. 1900hurricane:
The problem with that is that the ULL is very high in the troposphere and filling in. The low, while quite evident at 300 mb and above, barely has any kind of signature at 500 mb, so it will probably exert very little steering influence on 93L.



Current 300 mb winds



Current 500 mb heights and vorticity. Winds can be found here if would rather do an apples-to-apples comparison.


Thanks for that explanation. Would the ULL influence the storm more if it were to RI down there?
Quoting 1620. opal92nwf:

It's still hanging in there! Maybe a seed for a Caribbean storm and then somewhere beyond.

And of course hopefully rain for you.
It just keeps doing its "thing."

And BTW, that dry air is finally starting to fizzle here in the East-Central Gulf Coast. Can't wait until the rain starts kicking in again!


Yep!
1692. Patrap


Quoting 1629. DavidHOUTX:


I was just thinking the same thing. That ULL could actually help the system organize and pull it poleward on the eastern side of the ULL right into TX


I believe that is what a couple of models were seeing yesterday.
Quoting 1679. Torito:


I think it is trying to regenerate.

But Gabrielle already regenerated. Do you mean restrengthening into a tropical storm?
1695. Patrap
Here's the 12z position for 93L by NAM. Looks to be pretty accurate.
Quoting 1693. rmbjoe1954:


I believe that is what a couple of models are seeing.


BoooooooYa
1698. Torito
Quoting 1694. Bobbyweather:

But Gabrielle already regenerated. Do you mean restrengthening into a tropical storm?


yea, regenerating for the second time.
1699. Patrap
Got a monkey on my back. [X2]
Gonna change my ways tonight
Nobody's fault but mine


12z NAM at 48 hours
I posted this late last nite on my FB page!


Just looked at all the Models very close. It appears a consensus of models are forecasting Invest 93L to virtually stall in the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico coastline. Later, in about 10-12 days a very strong trough comes and picks up the energy and moves it back toward Florida. This is a ways out, so we don't know much until we get further in time. Need to watch this very close.
1702. Patrap
A Strong "Brees" is expected in Tampa Sunday I know.
I would copy HUMBERTO and past it at EX98L's location XD
1704. Torito
Quoting 1703. CaribBoy:
I would copy HUMBERTO and past it at EX98L's location XD


that would be a way to get TX soaked..........
I suspect that recon will find that 93L has become a tropical depression or storm. Big hot towers atop the suspected circulation and continually falling pressures across the region.

Mexico should be preparing for a big storm, in the literal sense and intensity wise. Good chance this becomes a hurricane, perhaps a potent one.
Quoting 1702. Patrap:
A Strong "Brees" is expected in Tampa Sunday I know.

Quite impressive Sunday. I know GeorgiaStormz is still prolly crying in his beer. haha
Quoting 1704. Torito:


that would be a way to get TX soaked..........


It would need a strong ridge though!
1708. dabirds
Quoting 1608. SouthernIllinois:

I WILL. haha. Got Summertime Sadness in my head now so smiles are overtaking my slowly.... :) *Glows*
My County is split by yellow on your map Nat, of course we're in yellow. We are currently getting a little rain that might actually register in guage, hopefully will work its way down to you this afternoon. Too late for all but latest corn, maybe some beans. regardless, will take anything we can get, have bad feeling about next year, it was every other year in 30s & 50s.
12z NAM at 57 hours - T.S. sitting in the BOC
1710. Torito
Gabs is predicted to have a 60% chance of strengthening to tropical storm strength again.

1711. Torito
Quoting 1707. CaribBoy:


It would need a strong ridge though!


if you want to copy and paste the storm, why not copy and paste the direction it is moving too?... xD
Last past 5 years the I storms have been pretty bad in intensity.
2008 Ike
Max winds:145mph
Highest MB:935mb
2009 Ida
Max Winds:105mph
Highest MB:975mb
2010 Igor
Max Winds:155mph
Highest MB:924mb
2011 Irene
Max Winds:120mph
Highest MB:942mb
2012 Isaac
Max Winds:80mph
Highest MB:968mb
2013 Possible Ingrid?
1713. Torito
KNEW IT
Gabs is a tropical storm... again.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...GABRIELLE REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 67.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
1714. Patrap
The Power of Mobility

"It was one of those things that naturally fall into our Mission statement"



Portlight Disaster Relief
Quoting 1708. dabirds:
My County is split by yellow on your map Nat, of course in yellow. We are currently etting a little rain that might actually register in guage, hopefully will work its way down to you this afternoon. Too late for all but latest corn, maybe some beans. regardless, will take anything we can get, have bad feeling about next year, it was every other year in 30s & 50s.

You know, that is so scary if you think about it...because it was every other year back then!! I sure hope we're not looking at that cycle trying to come into play!!

Yeah, I noticed the activity, but the mid-levels are too dry for that to likely make it down here. I can be hopefully, but gotta be realistic too. I think our rain chances for today are pretty much all but gone for the next 7 days. Dammit.

1716. Torito
93L:

. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
1717. Patrap
No current Intensity Guidance strengthens 93L past Cat 1

Quoting 1690. DavidHOUTX:


Thanks for that explanation. Would the ULL influence the storm more if it were to RI down there?

Maybe a bit if it were a deep hurricane, but there would be other more influential features in the steering. Lows that don't extend much below 300 mb (such as the TUTT) are usually only good for outflow ventilation or shear if a system gets too close.
EX-98L should make its way into the Caribbean

Quoting 1705. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I suspect that recon will find that 93L has become a tropical depression or storm. Big hot towers atop the suspected circulation and continually falling pressures across the region.

Mexico should be preparing for a big storm, in the literal sense and intensity wise. Good chance this becomes a hurricane, perhaps a potent one.

I'm not as high on intensity as you are, but I completely agree with you on the areal size of this system. Should be big with a nice EPac moisture tap.
12Z NAM at 72 hours - looks very close to landfall still as a T.S. (very strong T.S.)
The EPAC and 93L look like a giant monsoon trough
Quoting 1701. TampaSpin:
I posted this late last nite on my FB page!


Just looked at all the Models very close. It appears a consensus of models are forecasting Invest 93L to virtually stall in the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico coastline. Later, in about 10-12 days a very strong trough comes and picks up the energy and moves it back toward Florida. This is a ways out, so we don't know much until we get further in time. Need to watch this very close.



Hey, TS. That will be quite interesting. I wish our young guy on here, cmckla, could see your post. ;)
1724. Ed22
I think that invest 93L is already tropical depression number 10 on verge of becoming the ninth named storm based on my observation on different satellite imagery. Its looks healthy right now upgrading is eminent at 11am today or earlier.
.
starting to see the eye! morning humberto
wow gabrielle back again! im cant believe it
1727. Torito
Quoting 1724. Ed22:
I think that invest 93L is already tropical depression number 10 on verge of becoming the ninth named storm based on my observation on different satellite imagery. Its looks healthy right now upgrading is eminent at 11am today or earlier.
.


I think it will wait till this afternoon so recon gets the exact measurements of the storm.
Quoting 1719. wunderkidcayman:
EX-98L should make its way into the Caribbean



I see 93L has pulled that anticyclone to his south closer to him. 93L by far the most impressive of the 2 previous systems to transverse this area this season.
Quoting 1711. Torito:


if you want to copy and paste the storm, why not copy and paste the direction it is moving too?... xD


Lol, of course XD
1730. Torito
Quoting 1726. HurricaneCamille:
wow gabrielle back again! im cant believe it


The season is not a bust in terms of the strange things that have happened so far... :P
RI... TS before the day is over.

Quoting 1719. wunderkidcayman:
EX-98L should make its way into the Caribbean



I want to see it EXPLODING
1733. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Enhanced Overlay Loop


click image for Loop

Controls and ZOOM active

Quoting 1727. Torito:


I think it will wait till this afternoon so recon gets the exact measurements of the storm.



the nhc dos not have too wait in tell recon gets there if the nhc has find that 93L have be come a TD they can upgrade it at any time with or with out the recon being in there


look a TD 8 they upgrade it two a TD with out recon being in there
Gabrielle such a fighter!

Fiesty little system
Well this is where 12z NAM thinks 93L will make landfall. NAM had it very close to hurricane strength prior to landfall.
The emergency radio feeds out of Boulder are pretty harrowing right now. Reports of people in houses "screaming" for help due to rising water; children "trapped" in their homes; automobiles submerged (and often inverted) in swollen creeks; a group of people overwhelmed by a "wall of water" flowing down a canyon; and so on.


And, of course, the rain continues to fall...

1738. Torito
I'm expecting a 35mph td or a low end tropical storm out of 93L once recon inspects this thing.

So, 35-45MPH.
WHY so much shear near the L.A :/
1740. Torito
Quoting 1735. HurricaneCamille:
Gabrielle such a fighter!

Fiesty little system


its running out of ocean to hide in. :P
Quoting 1715. SouthernIllinois:

You know, that is so scary if you think about it...because it was every other year back then!! I sure hope we're not looking at that cycle trying to come into play!!

Yeah, I noticed the activity, but the mid-levels are too dry for that to likely make it down here. I can be hopefully, but gotta be realistic too. I think our rain chances for today are pretty much all but gone for the next 7 days. Dammit.



All it did up here was make the ground wet, not a single puddle. Certainly nothing much more than a TRACE. :/ I think officially they have us with less than 0.10" of rain in the last 45 days or so.

Nothing forecasted in the next week that says that it is going to change anytime soon either. I loath drought. We will be D3 range before the end of the month.



Quoting 1733. Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Enhanced Overlay Loop


click image for Loop

Controls and ZOOM active



It may just sit there for a while....doesn't look like much will influence direction or movement for some time.....
Quoting 1737. Neapolitan:
The emergency radio feeds out of Boulder are pretty harrowing right now. Reports of people in houses "screaming" for help due to rising water; children "trapped" in their homes; automobiles submerged (and often inverted) in swollen creeks; a group of people overwhelmed by a "wall of water" flowing down a canyon; and so on.


And, of course, the rain continues to fall...



Quoting 1727. Torito:


I think it will wait till this afternoon so recon gets the exact measurements of the storm.


Was very close to T.D. earlier this morning.
93L just recently went over Ciudad Carmen Mexico. Definitely showed LLC with a complete wind switch (front N to S) as it passed.
Quoting 1723. moonlightcowboy:



Hey, TS. That will be quite interesting. I wish our young guy on here, cmckla, could see your post. ;)


Have you seen the latest GFS run...

Quoting 1669. SouthernIllinois:

That's how it SHOULD be. You go out with Mother Nature in the wilderness to hunt and enjoy God's beauty you have NO BUSINESS having access to GPS and phones, and Ipads and that crap. Keep it simple. Keep it real!! haha. BTW....bucks are really coming around my area now. Yah!!!


Nothing better than sitting in the silent woods in the early morning darkness and then slowly hearing the woods come alive as the sun starts to light it up!
It very quiet on the blog today.

I very surprised consider how active the tropics are.

Quoting 1701. TampaSpin:
I posted this late last nite on my FB page!


Just looked at all the Models very close. It appears a consensus of models are forecasting Invest 93L to virtually stall in the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico coastline. Later, in about 10-12 days a very strong trough comes and picks up the energy and moves it back toward Florida. This is a ways out, so we don't know much until we get further in time. Need to watch this very close.


It has already progressed to almost half way across the BOC. It needs to slow down if it wants to even come close to accomplishing that. I did not notice a couple of spaghetti plots have this doing a small loop de loop before making landfall...
I think 93L may already be a TD or very close at least!
Quoting 1726. HurricaneCamille:
wow gabrielle back again! im cant believe it
SHE IS BACK and she is looking pretty right now..
1751. Torito
Quoting 1747. HurricaneCamille:
It very quiet on the blog today.

I very surprised consider how active the tropics are.



Maybe a new blog by Jeff Masters will help things get going again. :P
1752. barbamz

Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic. Click to enlarge.


Future Man-yi gains momentum in the WPac. Probably a hugh storm in the making.
1753. Patrap
Quoting 1737. Neapolitan:
The emergency radio feeds out of Boulder are pretty harrowing right now. Reports of people in houses "screaming" for help due to rising water; children "trapped" in their homes; automobiles submerged (and often inverted) in swollen creeks; a group of people overwhelmed by a "wall of water" flowing down a canyon; and so on.


And, of course, the rain continues to fall...



The Reports are ranging from request for Statewide assistance, to multiple reports of Natural Gas Main breaks.

The RESCUE reports are many.

Some areas are unreachable save for by air currently.
Quoting 1741. ILwthrfan:


All it did up here was make the ground wet, not a single puddle. Certainly nothing much more than a TRACE. :/ I think officially they have us with less than 0.10" of rain in the last 45 days or so.

Nothing forecasted in the next week that says that it is going to change anytime soon either. I loath drought. We will be D3 range before the end of the month.




This is getting SCARY. If I ever get to D3 I just can't blog. Too difficult. But you're right. The long range outlook isn't very promising.
Quoting 1743. RitaEvac:



Orographic lifting sure is a powerful mechanism in meteorology.

1756. Thrawst
.
1757. Torito
Quoting 1752. barbamz:

Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic. Click to enlarge.


Future Man-yi gains momentum in the WPac. Prpbably a hugh storm in the making.


Humberto is starting to take the west turn now in that image.
Last night!
1759. Patrap

586
WGUS55 KBOU 121436
FFWBOU
COC013-121730-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FF.W.0049.130912T1436Z-130912T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
836 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BOULDER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 1130 AM MDT

* AT 834 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
FOURMILE BURN AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THE NEXT
45 MINUTES. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN BOULDER...SALINA...CRISMAN...GOLD HILL...WALLSTREET...
SUMMERVILLE AND SUNSHINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
DITCHES IN THE FOURMILE BURN AREA. SOME DRAINAGE BASINS AFFECTED BY
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF INCLUDE FOURMILE CREEK...GOLD RUN...AND FOURMILE
CANYON CREEK. WATER WILL BE FLOWING DOWN ROADWAYS. ROCK SLIDES OR
DEBRIS FLOWS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD
ALSO TRIGGER ROCK SLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.



LAT...LON 4009 10527 3999 10526 3999 10544 4009 10543



RPK

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Quoting 1737. Neapolitan:
The emergency radio feeds out of Boulder are pretty harrowing right now. Reports of people in houses "screaming" for help due to rising water; children "trapped" in their homes; automobiles submerged (and often inverted) in swollen creeks; a group of people overwhelmed by a "wall of water" flowing down a canyon; and so on.


And, of course, the rain continues to fall...



Live TV Coverage
1762. VR46L
Substantial looking Front



Will be at the Gulf in 2 days..

This should help 93L get going fairly quickly..

1764. Patrap
1766. dabirds
Quoting 1741. ILwthrfan:


All it did up here was make the ground wet, not a single puddle. Certainly nothing much more than a TRACE. :/ I think officially they have us with less than 0.10" of rain in the last 45 days or so.

Nothing forecasted in the next week that says that it is going to change anytime soon either. I loath drought. We will be D3 range before the end of the month.



I was in C-U yesterday for some testing, knew you'd been very dry, Monticello looked very dry. They're about as far S as you, right? Got back from Lake Mon., had .25" in guage from Sun., but sure couldn't tell it. Doubt we got that today, but at least had some puddles. StL long range has rain chances all next week, so maybe some relief?
Quoting 1733. Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Enhanced Overlay Loop


click image for Loop

Controls and ZOOM active



Looks like the shear is pushing the system to the ne.I can't see how this is going to go west.
I SEE INVEST 94L coming soon.
Quoting 1730. Torito:


The season is not a bust in terms of the strange things that have happened so far... :P


this has been a very strange season I agree
1771. barbamz
Quoting 1737. Neapolitan:
The emergency radio feeds out of Boulder are pretty harrowing right now. Reports of people in houses "screaming" for help due to rising water; children "trapped" in their homes; automobiles submerged (and often inverted) in swollen creeks; a group of people overwhelmed by a "wall of water" flowing down a canyon; and so on.


And, of course, the rain continues to fall...




Really bad.


1772. Patrap
Lordy, one coming out a half submerged SUV Van in a swollen creek..rescue has them!!
Quoting 1768. hurricanes2018:
I SEE INVEST 94L coming soon.
good point south of humberto
Common Baby Common Baby!!! And don't you think I'm using my inside voice either!

1775. HCW
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1774. SouthernIllinois:
Common Baby Common Baby!!! And don't you think I'm using my inside voice either!



Those are some pathetic cells
1778. SLU
Wow.

Maybe, just maybe, October might still be very active if we can get large-scale upward motion and moist mid-level air.





Quoting 1777. RitaEvac:


Those are some pathetic cells

Hush! It's all I got!!! ;)
I lived in Col. for a long time. Whenever I was up in the hills gold mining in the summer I always had my eye on the storm build-up to the west. Those canyons aren't very wide and it doesn't take a whole lot of rain to create a substantial flood. Living close to the creeks and rivers is always a crap-shoot game of chance.
1781. dabirds
Quoting 1774. SouthernIllinois:
Common Baby Common Baby!!! And don't you think I'm using my inside voice either!

The one at the top just came through for us. Hopefully that one W of C'dale blows up and waters your trees! Wish we could get ILwthr some of this, they didn't get nearly as much this spring either. Amazing how much the MS has dropped in three months. Couldn't hardly see Chain of Rocks early summer, now full view, big sand bars below. But at least can't yet see them above like last summer.
Quoting 1781. dabirds:
The one at the top just came through for us. Hopefully that one W of C'dale blows up and waters your trees! Wish we could get ILwthr some of this, they didn't get nearly as much this spring either. Amazing how much the MS has dropped in three months. Couldn't hardly see Chain of Rocks early summer, now full view, big sand bars below. But at least can't yet see them above like last summer.

Awwwwwweeee. Hope so too. :) Thank you. *Glows*

The levels of the river really tell the TRUE tale doesn't it!! Good observation to make and a good gauge to go off of.
Quoting 1766. dabirds:
I was in C-U yesterday for some testing, knew you'd been very dry, Monticello looked very dry. They're about as far S as you, right? Got back from Lake Mon., had .25" in guage from Sun., but sure couldn't tell it. Doubt we got that today, but at least had some puddles. StL long range has rain chances all next week, so maybe some relief?


Hey dabirds,

I'm southeast of Monticello, in Tuscola, about 20 miles southeast of there, 25 miles south of Champaign. Long Range from 7-14 says it is supposed to get more moist throughout Illinois, but most of it stays west of the Mississippi. We shall see, this pattern has been one tough one to break.

Of course crapping out. Should have known better than to ever think this had a chance to make it into Cypress in the first place. :(

I'm surprised Humberto isn't heading for Spain.
Hey everyone new to this and love reading questions and comments on here. I live in Southwest Louisiana and I know high pressure is present right now, but do y'all think future Ingrid will still have a chance to track this way? I know alot can change with these things. Btw I am new on here