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Huh? Hurricane Vince????

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:59 AM GMT on October 10, 2005

OK, this is definitely a weird storm. First of all, it's ridiculous that we're up to a "V" storm in early October. Second of all, Vince formed in a very unusual location--off the coast of Portugal--and in a region where water temperatures are only about 24 C. No tropical storm has ever formed so far north and east. Thirdly, Vince is incredibly tiny--and now a hurricane! I know I always harp on the rule that a water temperature of at least 26C is needed for tropical storm formation to occur, but we can bend that rule a little when a tropical storm forms from a pre-existing non-tropical low pressure system that sits over water for many days, and gradually acquires a warm core. As we've already seen, the Hurricane Season of 2005 doesn't care much about what is usual. The storm was too far east to fit on our newer tracking maps, so I dusted off some European maps for the purpose.



Vince is in a strange location, but not unprecedented. Vince is pretty far east--18.6 West longitude at the 5pm EDT advisory--but there have been hurricanes that have been even further east than Vince. For example, in 1965, Hurricane Carol made it to 17.8 West near the coast of Portugal before being downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm. And in 1961, Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland as a Category 1 hurricane, passing longitude 8 West before losing hurricane characteristics (sorry my maps don't extend all the way to Europe, I'm going to have to fix this). So, Vince's location isn't unprecedented, and you can't blame Vince on global warming, given that Vince is forming in such cold waters! But this sure is a weird exclamation mark to put on the end of a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season.

The rest of my discussion from this morning appears below, unchanged.

Vince won't be with us for long. A cold front approaching Europe will pick up Vince Tuesday morning, and cold water and wind shear will tear Vince apart. Vince's remains should bring Portugal and Spain heavy rains and winds gusts to 45 mph on Tuesday. Portugal gets the remains of tropical storms every 5 - 10 years, on average. This occurred most recently in October 1998 with Jeanne.

Subtropical Depression 22
Subtropical Depression 22 dissipated Saturday evening, torn apart by wind shear. Its remnants will continue west towards the Carolinas, but are not expected to regenerate or bring significant rains to the U.S., as the wind shear is too high (30 knots) for re-development to occur.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following near 15N 53W, about 450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has a low level circulation, but the cloud pattern is disorganized. Development is not expected today or Monday, but some slow development after that is possible.

A strong upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is creating a large curved band of disturbed weather from the Bahamas through the central Caribbean to the Leeward Islands. No development is likely in this area until Tuesday, when the low is expected to weaken and move north and reduce the amount of wind shear over the area. Several of the computer models predict that a tropical storm could form from this disturbed area of weather by mid-week and move north to threaten Bermuda.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains at about 1500. Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time. Stan now surpasses Katrina as the most deadly hurricane of 2005; Katrina's death toll stood at 1242 at last count, with 1003 of the deaths in Louisiana.


Figure 2.Total precipition for the year (PC = precipitation in incehs) from a station in Guatemala. During a 5-day period of rain from Stan, this station picked up 17 inches of rain.

The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. The entire village may be declared a mass grave, as rescuers move on to find victims of more survivable mudslides. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala.

The next update will be Monday around 10 am.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Cool. Link
Jeff, when's your birthday? I think we, the entire wunderblog community, should make contributions to like your own personal satellite or something.
progressive what map are u talking about. so i could explain to u what it says as i have not seen anything thats anything that will affect florida any time soon
Hurricane Lenny was a Cat 4 as I remember with pressure of 933 mb and winds of 155. However a nasty hurricane in Nov 1932 crossed central Cuba and had a central pressure of 916 mb (27.05") which was the lowest recorded on land in the western hemisphere at that time. This hurricane also killed more than 3,000 people at a time when the whole population of Cuba was less than 3 million! It was also considered the worst hurricane ever (at that time) in the Bahamas.
Florida was very lucky that 1932 hurricane did not head that way.
Lefty looks like the latest run has the storm sitting off the Carolinas and then taking a turn to the N Ne. What's your thoughts on this? also let's say that it does make to the MidAtlantic how strong best estimate(I know it's early just want an opinion).
Thanks for the update Jeff,

I think we are going to have a lot of surprises into 06, including a few more subtropical storms due to the abnormally warm SST's in the north atlantic.
pa thats casue thats just ine run of one model. the track is anywehre form a nc landfall to a ne land fall to afish storm. i say cat or 2 at most and late in the period it could encounter alot of shear so thats questionable as well.
trackwill be a timming issue with an approaching cold forn and a retreating high. exact timming will teel where if any landfall will be
What model did you look at paweatherfan, the GFS?
(I guess I was more posting a question on the models and how they can be accurate if there are so many first time occurances) <--- carried over. That is all just a question.
Thanks man
Alot of variables to play out. I guess it's just wait and see
And by the way lefty I love your images--so keep posting them!
Not any specific model just a question, I am an amature here.
Yea you go Lefty! :)
gfs wxhatt, lefty posted a link earlier for it
Lefty, did you read my entry on the other blog?
progressive there were not any foirst occurances here today. only how many storms we have had. i already explained to you that vince formed in all the models and that it was assumed he was not tropical but now we know different.

if u read the posts u would see i explained everything that has happened this week was in the models
yeah cane thansk man
Ok, even though I took Meteorology doesn't mean I am an expert. I just like Yappin'! LOL

P.S. I'm really a wx flunky cause I never finished my degree. (Wx blushes w/ embarasment)
your welcome, I am an amature on here and I use your posts to keep up to date.
ok guys be back in a little bit. football is on so thats what i need to watch lol.
Thank pa, I'll look at it now.
lefty there is a 'link" button for your boheamoth images. Or if you really feel an irristable urge to post the image you could use the size htm tag to reduce it a little so we dont all have to change our entire browser setup for your convinience. Thanks for not being an ahole and forcing this to Master attnetion.

Looking at Vince, I was impressed, throwing off some outflow cirrus and getting better defined, but the eye has covered over in last hour and a half. Not sure if there is a convective blowup on north side spilling cirrus and hiding the eye or if climatology is catching up to Vince.
man wannabe you crack me up lol you sound like a old man with a cane lol
Still a hurricane on 11 p.m. advisory but NHC is saying weakening is beginning.
Oh yea pa, and that does mean "I am" an amature. Actually I think everyone here does a great job of using the available resources and making their call. Just what Synoptic Meteorology is about. :)
wxhatt wannabe dont like alot of people on here hes got issues just ignore him hel go away lol
lolololol you got me tearin' here! boldman
same here lol there si one thing these blogs are good for is making you laugh lol
Some people just gotta...

ya know ;)
so is this low that was td22 goign to become td 22 again it dont look too impressive i do see a good circulation though but not alot of convection
The NHC has shifted the track a little to the south and east, which keeps it over a little warmer water.

I also have serious doubts about Debbie in 1961 hitting Ireland with any tropical characteristics, water off the west coast of Ireland never exceeds 16 C, and there is a limit, lol. There is no way a hurricane could approach Ireland without being over water less than 22 C for at least a day. Juan hit Halifax as a Cat 2 over 17 C water, but had been pver the gulf stream until 5 hours before landfall and was travelling over 40 mph, which gave it the opportunity. But I can't imagine a hurricane maintaining tropical characteristics over water like that for a day.
yeah wxhatt lol
Vince is a rebel! GO VINCE!!! lol
000
WTNT33 KNHC 100223
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...VINCE PASSING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...
...THREAT TO SHIPPING...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 17.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND ABOUT
565 MILES... 910 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.5 N... 17.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
Lots of sensitive types on these weather blogs. Hurt feelings everywhere - wow never knew that weather bloggers were so thin skinned. lol.
Question: What happens if the ULL moves directly over the remnant LLC of STD 22??
(heh - talking to myself for last half hour on the old blog)
Progressive - Was off to visit "888..gg" blog. Nice and peaceful (and friendly) there.

As for continental ULL over Tenn-Ohio valley vs. West Atlantic ULL, standard interaction is for ULL to rotate around each other, east ULL north, west ULL south, if same strength. If very different strengths, stronger ULL pulls weaker ULL around periphery (sort of the same thing).

In this case, continental ULL definitely beginning to pull more north. I though earlier the strong continental ULL and associated SE trough would definitely pull developing Atlantic system towards mid-Atlantic, now I am not so sure, as Atlantic ULL has maintained steady W course, estimate center at 25.45N 64.34W at 1:45 UTC. Check that against my last observation above (old blog).
Weathermandan - Lower level swirl gets sheared apart. ULL may be transitioning to warm core near its center, however, so extra energy and mositure from STD 22 absorbed by the system, aiding in transition
k thanks :-)...definately interesting to see how this all pans out lol (as always)
g2g tho...bye everybody
I should be more specific Lefty sorry. I was not speaking of this past week, I was speaking of the big picture of "first's" that started with Frances and Jeanne last year. My question is the models use current conditions, future predicted conditions and past history to make thier forcasts, correct? And being so many new occurances over the past year and a half, will this have an impact on future reliability of the models and thier forcast. Or will they take it like every other year and continue to preform well. It is easy to jump speculation in here but it was you that got me to believe in what the NHC says and I plan on it.
wait...one last thing lol. I think the latest NAM (00Z) has the ULL transitioning to a warm core system like you said (NAM's probably not the best model to use, but oh well lol)

Link

I think the trend has been for the SE U.S. ULL to get stronger, so anything that does develop there could in theory threaten the mid-Atlantic coast. in the past, there have been a few storms that form south/southeast of Bermuda and move WNW/NW and hit either the Mid-Atlantic or southern New England. any thoughts?? let me know haha I love discussion

well actually...love is a strong word...lol j/k....but yeah
Thanks guygee, just an observation on my part. Hopefully it will turn more north, getting tired of the rain here.
How reliable is our data regarding water temperature fluctuation?
Computermodelsfail2c - I believe cloud cover interferes with direct satellite SST measurements, so in the absence of ship reports we may not get data updates for days, worst case. However, there may be computer algorithms and models that extrapolate and predict in these cases (anyone have knowledge of such?). At least, such predictions are feasible, same as for the atmosphere, only probably more accurate over longer timescales.
Weathermandan,

I think that the NAM is showing the disturbance in the PR area developing and moving NW.
wxhatt-k thanks wasn't sure because they're kinda close. could it be a combination of the two?
Either way they have a shot at the upper east coast. Especially if the 1032 high builds in on top of them and steers them more NW.
WOW a hurricane in cool water. No wannabe said that would never happen.

Alright. Sorry ya'll. Just could not resist.

Any who I see we have Vince. Seems almost certain that we will make Alpha.

Lefty?
Could colder-than-normal surface feed air sustain a warm-core marine cyclone even if the SSTs fall well below the accepted minimum for tropical storms? This would actually give the system polar rather than merely subtropical characteristics, technically speaking, but I don't see why it couldn't work, in principle. How warm is Vince's feed air?
What would probably happen is the ULL now moving west would stay seperate from either entity (TD 22 or PR disturbance). It may absorb the leftovers of TD 22, then as it continues backing away from PR disturbance, shear will lessen allowing it to develope and follow on it's heals. A guess though...
I issued my new advisory on Vince:

Link
Anyone here remember when "google news" was called Usenet (before the WWW). There was a file called ".kill". In it, you could put the handles of people you wanted to ignore. Automagically, their posts would not show up.

I never had such a file myself, but people would typically argue for awhile, Hitler would be invoked, then the other guy would say, "'Plonk' - that is the sound of you hitting my killfile".
LOL (for me, anyways)

Nice Update tornadoty! :)

R U going Pro now?
Guy,

I think I infected you with the temp dats quastion. I am sure we can extrapolate from existing data and algorithms, but anomalous condition seem to call further examination. Thanks for the reply
Computermodelsfail2c - I was just curious if anyone had any further knowledge about such algorithms. Ladar can see through clouds, so sea surface altimetry could give a lot of insight into anomalies. (I've seen satellite ladar data that sees though rainforests all the way to the ground, it was used to estimate carbon density and other parameters to monitor rainforest "health".)

I was hoping a "pro" might be around who could give a more detailed explanation on any such algorithms.
comp the sst gathered by satilite have been off at times by a few degrees. For example last week watchin Tammy, we're lookin at the big maps til she's grown alittle & moved closer to some bouys, check temps & whoa 3 to 4 deg F hotter
this blog needs a cleaning
Guygee maybe if i'd finished that physics degree:)
I'm purusing the models before sleep~ the Canadian Link seems to form a PR blob
weatherwannabe - Was it something I said? Personally I can understand frustration of having to wait for this primitive blog to update, as you have to click "reload" every couple of minute to keep up. Wish they would add an edit feature, and an ignore/killfile feature to cut back on flamewars. Also a spellchecker would be a bonus.
No, not yet, they don't let 15/16 year-olds go pro..yet.
Pick your data and plot your points...

the ukmet Link doesn't look pretty for the NE toward end of next week
Also, I was planning to make the update longer and more indepth, but I habe not been feeling well tonight, with several peroids indiposed.
Skyepony - A biology prefessor showed me those ladar images of some Central American rainforest. You could see the density of the foliage from the top of the canopy on down to the ground, in cross-section. It was very interesting. We were talking about making 3D interactive visualization software for his data, but it never panned out.
the nogaps Link. They all seem pretty well agreed for 48 - 72 hrs then on a few ~ well watch out NE! Couldn't get the gfdl up. nite all
Skyepony - From your model links looks like FL in the clear for awhile, hope it holds...
sh u still here man
sorry sj u still here
Yeah in the lobby.
oh I second the spell check. As nature made me inept in this area, as well as many other science/art orintated people.

Sorry no pan on the forest 3-d models, sounds pretty interesting
k be there in a minute
OK, all the SST talk must be going over my head, I guess I really missed some hanging issue here, but no one will spell it out for me...
Skyepony - Not only am I a 2-finger and thumbs typist, but I eat dinner over my keybaord, so the keys are getting pretty sticky again.

Also, right hand types faster, so letters get reversed...
A hope they are not archiving this stuff on the wayback machine ;-)
Hey Lefty, while my stomach cooperates, look at this:

Link

The storms are developing closer to the center.
I have been examining fractal elements in nature and would love to see the carbon data you speak of... I am a huge fan of image analysis and application
torns if im not mistaken the storms arent developing around 22 its a different system, i believe the swirl of low clouds SE of Bermuda or on the top left portion of the image is whats left of 22
This is an ULL becoming warm core.

And speaking of my stomach, be back soon...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html Looks like a couple of Rams about to butt heads.
Does anyone know if the slight global warming of our atmosphere correlates to the increase SST's? or is this just a decadal pulse.

Just wondering, being there has been recent talk on SST's.
I'm back for noooowwww...
Wx..The pulse vs change debate always generates controversy, but the data not surprisingly depicts natural upswings and downswings. However, the current oscillation most likely reflects the effect of the massive influx of carbon into Earth's atmosphere as well as natural processes.
Computermodelsfail2c - Data was shown to me by Dr.John F. Weishampel, University of Central Florida in Orlando. He was a winner of NSF Young Investigator Award, this was a few years ago. He only showed my printouts, I never got the files, otherwise I would be happy to share, as I do not believe the data was confidential or classified.

If you are an academic, government researcher or government contractor in the field, you can look him up at www.ucf.edu and make a request. When such requests are accompanied by an offer to jointly write a grant proposal, they are usually most welcome ;-)

Fractals can also make for some cool-looking artificial terrain generation, but usually too unrealistic. You need to alter with some erosion simulation and some smoothing.
Nevertheless, looking for a direct correlation between global warming and a rise in the frequency of SSTs is a waste of time. It is like linking a 1% rise in unemployment to a specific person's job loss. Even if you could scientifically prove a link between the 2, would the massive expenditure of time be worth it?
Thanks Computermodelsfail2c,

I had heard and read several theories, but what you are saying seems to make a lot of sense. If the carbons are causing this also, I am quite concerned that we may see a sharper increase in SST's due to the quantitave emissions.

I also read an article on the BBC that said that the Glacial meltdown is something like 3 times faster, and that melting is exposing black 'dirt' on the glaciers which would allow for absorbtion of even more heat. That sounds like a vicious cycle, eh?

I see your point Computermodels, I just think global warming is a bad thing anyway you slice it. What would the biggest impact be? Would it be the weather, or something else I'm missing.
Hey, is Lefty around?
I think he and sj are playin Halo
The last few frames before the eclipse showed the West Atlantic ULL w/LLvl swirl heading more north. Time for me to relax and sign off. Thanks everyone as usual for the good conversation and insights.
Night guygee, have a good one.
Computermodelsfail2c - I was just on my way out and I remembered we did do some vegetation modeling based on Lindenmayer Systems (L-Systems). Kind of old-hat nowadays, but at least related to fractal systems.
Thanks wxhatt, good night.

BTW, you may want to check out turtlecane's blog if you are interested in global warming, it is here:

Link
Thanks, sure will...
Sorry for the off topic discussion and question here, but from following the storms all year and the great knowledge on WU, just have to ask. How does HEAVY fog form when the cloud formation looks almost like the hurricane images that have been posted on the NHC? Left Ft. Walton today for Miami, was held on the ground for an hour due to heavy fog in Atlanta (I know it is crazy to go from Fl to Atl to get back to Fl...Delta). Anyway, on the approach in, I have never seen such cloud formations other than pictures of canes. It was not raining there either, but when we finally got down, very heavy fog. Of course, missed connecting flight and just got in and had to feed my habit with WU to see what is going on before going to bed. Hope someone can explain this to me. It was a sight to see and I fly all the time.
Code1 you might try alec's blog I think everyone here is about gone, where did you get this fog in ATL?
hello all again whats new with vince
hello any lurkers lol come out hey
hi bold - you wanna play?
lefty - any more brilliant predictions?
ok guys quick update on possible carribean storm now that all the major models are out

formation styill looks good in allmodels but looks to be a littlemore north and a little slower than befor. so 36-48 hrs from now. this later development has led to tracks that have shifted east and looks unlikley a landfall would occur. will need to see if its the same in the next model runs. remeber the track is merely pseculation as it has not formed and many things couldplay into it. the key is all globalmodels still predict formation in 36-48 hrs


gfs has it quite in the atlantic for days after this storm. uopdate u guys again in the morning
104. dcw
Something to note about Global Warming: These storms are natures regulation for it.
(clinking bottles and driving in a cyberspacial car)

Lurkers...
Come out and Play
Lurkers..
Come out and Playyyy
Luckers...
Come out and PLAY!!

Bouns points for knowing what movie that line is a parody of
Good morning all! Fabulous weekend here. Went to Pensacola Beach Saturday and it was wonderful. Emerald blue water and no red tide! Not a cloud in the sky and 80 degrees Saturday. Well I see that we are up to "V".
lefty any more brilliant predictions from your mother's basement?
Morning all!
DR M Has NEW Post Up!
The Warriors, how many bonus points?