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Huge Western Caribbean low bringing heavy rains; Wisconsin levee failing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the Western Caribbean.

A wet week ahead for the Western Caribbean, Florida, and the Western Bahamas
Pressures are falling over the Western Caribbean today as a large area of low pressure develops over the region. This low is bringing heavy rains across a huge area, from the Pacific shores of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, to eastern Cuba and Haiti. All of Central America, eastern Mexico, the western 2/3 of the Caribbean, plus the Bahamas and Florida can expect sporadic periods of very heavy tropical rains over the coming week, with peak amounts of 3 - 6 inches per day possible. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A large trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is producing steering currents that will pull this area of disturbed weather to the north-northeast across western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, and over North Carolina by Thursday and Friday. All of these regions can expect very heavy rains from the disturbance, and NHC is giving a 30% chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

Once the disturbance moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. The steering currents are not expected to change over the coming ten days, and Florida and western Cuba can expect to see this second disturbance potentially bring a second round of heavy rain late this week and early next week.

Levee failing in Wisconsin due to rains from Hurricane Karl's moisture
In Portage, Wisconsin, about 25 miles north of Madison, a sub-standard 120-year-old levee is failing, thanks to flood waters 3.5 feet above flood stage on the Wisconsin River. The river was swollen last week by heavy rains of up to seven inches that fell in its watershed to the northwest. The rains were generated by a plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl. This moisture was lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Thursday. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Minnesota and Wisconsin for the seven-day period ending 8pm EDT Sunday 9/26/10. Heavy rains to the northwest of Portage, Wisconsin led to flooding along the Wisconsin River in Portage. Image credit: NOAA.

Canadian Military responds for Hurricane Igor relief
At least twenty communities in Newfoundland, Canada are still cut off from civilization after Tuesday's rampage by Hurricane Igor. The Canadian military has sent three warships and a number of helicopters into the disaster zone to deliver food, fuel, and medical supplies to those communities still cut off. Igor killed one person and caused over $100 million in damage to the island.


Figure 3. Miniature golf anyone? A house in St. John's Newfoundland now has a very three-dimensional front yard, thanks to Hurricane Igor's winds and rain. Image credit: Zach Goudie.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Jackson Street Bridge late Saturday afternoon at cresting.
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Wisconsin River Flooding in Wisconsin Rapids September 2010
Taken from First Avenue while looking eastward toward Grand Avenue Bridge/Elks Club when the flooding was at its worst

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NWS MLB...

...WET AND STORMY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY AROUND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. DEVELOPING SE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PULL IN INCREASING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN THE INLAND MOVING ECSB WILL HELP GENERATE SCT TO NMRS SHRAS
INTO THE AFT. INSTABILITY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED DUE TO AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WILL ONLY KEEP MENTION
OF ISOLATED STORMS. HOWEVER AREAS THAT SEE MORE DAYTIME HEATING MAY
SEE MORE SCT STORM COVERAGE THIS AFT. DUE TO MORE CONVECTION
COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AROUND 1-2
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWER BANDS CAN DEVELOP.

WED-THURS...TRIED TO TREND CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WRT
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO FAST WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THE
LOW WILL LIFT FROM NEAR WESTERN CUBA AROUND SUNRISE WED TOWARD SE FL
THROUGH WED EVENING. THE LIFTING MID/UPPER TROF SHOULD THEN HELP
ACCELERATE SYSTEM NE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS TIMING WOULD
BRING THE HIGHEST POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING WED
WITH A GRADUAL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
NEED TO REFINE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. FOR NOW...TRENDED POPS HIGHEST
SE SECTIONS...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TREASURE COAST ON WED AND LIKELY
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY SLOWING OR DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM COULD
WORSEN LOCAL WX CONDITIONS FURTHER SO CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sounds like some rain... maybe a breeze. Doubtful it will get a name or any warnings will go up.

AGUA...


Quoting hurricanecrab:


Agree. Hope your Grandson feels better. Here's a link for Pico San Juan, Cuba radar
Thank you.
2503. nash28
Good morning all.

Trying to dry out here in Charleston.. Just in time for another soaking later this week it appears.
Good news the Jamaican radar is back up! Could be useful later on. Link
seems all the system needs to do is pinch off a circulation plenty of warm water ahead for it to do that
Off to school, my classroom awaits. Have a wonderful Tuesday everyone!
Aerial View

So my real question of the day, we're in Naples, FL (SW FL). Does anyone think this thing could blow up into a Hurricane before clipping us, or is this ruled out pretty much for now? Is there anything keeping it from developing into a Hurricane at this point? Thanks!
Yep. Changes, they are afoot.
Where the heck is the center? It reminds me of THE BLOB

The northern Gulf coast based on climatology does see a drastic decrease in the number of storms that make landfall there as the month of October drags on.

No reason to let any guard down though, and the season is technically far from over yet anywhere.

But it should be worth mentioning that the sheer number of storms & also the intensity at which they sustain are diminished due to factors such as the cooling of the 26 degree isotherm, increased wind shear, & the presence of deep trough & fronts.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Definitely a rare thing, but not unheard of. In the past 150 years or so, the northern Gulf coast (in this instance, from Florida's Big Bend area west to Houston) has been struck by 20 or so hurricanes on or after october first, and only eight of them have been major hurricanes at landfall or just before. If tropcal storms and depressions are included, however, there have been dozens, or roughly one every two years or so...obviously not rare at all. So as I said yesterday, while the northern Gulf threat is diminishing by the day, it's definitely not over...

This is a great point
2513. surfmom
thx Cat5 & Morning neighbor to my south Naples
nash...let's stay in touch over the next 48 hours...might be party time...
Nice sunrise in Naples a short while ago. Love the inverted over-the-horizon cloud shadows. (And please forgive the poor resolution; I shot this with a low-quality cellphone camera while stopped at a red light [Airport & Orange Blossom].)

sunrise
2516. WxLogic
Good Morning...

80% Chance... we'll have to see now what the 8AM TWO will update, but I do believe it will stay at 80% to no more than 90% for the time being.



Not much organization quite yet but appears to be getting there.
2517. 7544
morning all looks at the big red ball looks like it could be already a ts but i guess they will wait for plane to go in and call it .
Some very welcome rain for this region of the CONUS. This map depicts totals for the last week; although the majority of that feel within the last 48hrs.



Appears the heaviest core now is shifting further east toward the coast. This is the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for the next three days:

2519. surfmom
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice sunrise in Naples a short while ago. Love the inverted over-the-horizon cloud shadows. (And please forgive the poor resolution; I shot this with a poor-quality cellphone camera while stopped at a red light.)

sunrise

FORGIVEN - great shot -....love, love a beautiful FL sunrise - hummmm wait a minute... sky is red.... Red Sky in Morning - Sailor's Warning
2520. scott39
I know its 12 days out but the GFS shows a stronger TC in the SE GOM.
The center seems to be relocating beneath the massive blob of convection.850mb vorticiy maps from CIMSS indicate this.





Good morning. So, a big, messy, blobby invest nearing TD status this morning. I know there's some circulation in there somewhere. Dang, who would have thought that trough would have dug in so deep.

If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.
Quoting futuremet:
The center seems to be relocating beneath the massive blob of convection.850mb vorticiy maps from CIMSS indicate this.







Would likely miss FL east coast.
2525. scott39
Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.
So it could possibly miss Fl?
Quoting presslord:
nash...let's stay in touch over the next 48 hours...might be party time...


And if you know anyone--teenager maybe?--who might like to make a little money digging a short trench and a sump pump basin in an old broad's backyard in Hanahan, please let me know! That was 'way too much rain yesterday and I'm sure there was water in the crawlspace.

As always, thanks to you all for working so hard to keep us informed.

Off to phys therapy, back later this a.m.
Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.

What would this mean for Jamaica, as most of the residents here have no clue what is lurking off of the coast.
2528. Detrina
relocation of center = what for track please in regards to tampa area? thx!
Quoting OctaviaStreet:


And if you know anyone--teenager maybe?--who might like to make a little money digging a short trench and a sump pump basin in an old broad's backyard in Hanahan, please let me know! That was 'way too much rain yesterday and I'm sure there was water in the crawlspace.

As always, thanks to you all for working so hard to keep us informed.

Off to phys therapy, back later this a.m.


check your WU mail
2530. 7544
Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.


does the front stallout that will tell all
Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.

Good morning, futuremet. Good thing we have other tools, because you sure can't see any COC on any visible. lol I even had my magnifiying glass out.
By the way my weather station is reading 1004 mb in Jamaica.
2533. scott39
Quoting Detrina:
relocation of center = what for track please in regards to tampa area? thx!
Farther E away from you.
Quoting Detrina:
relocation of center = what for track please in regards to tampa area? thx!
If it relocates the center to where futuremet is saying it would most likely go east or across the southern tip of Florida. Not up the west coast.
If this occurs, it will likely move farther east or miss Florida. However, this puts South Carolina an the rest of the states in the southeast coast in more danger.
2536. Detrina
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If it relocates the center to where futuremet is saying it would most likely go east or across the southern tip of Florida. Not up the west coast.


thanks:)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice sunrise in Naples a short while ago. Love the inverted over-the-horizon cloud shadows. (And please forgive the poor resolution; I shot this with a poor-quality cellphone camera while stopped at a red light.)

sunrise
Beautiful picture, Neopolitan! Based on the current direction of this invest, the trough firmly in place over North and Central Florida and the most recent model runs, how was Central Florida included in the two?

My thinking is that it would have to slam on the brakes, head due North and rapidly intensify for Central Florida to feel any effects. What am I missing?
Quoting surfmom:

FORGIVEN - great shot -....love, love a beautiful FL sunrise - hummmm wait a minute... sky is red.... Red Sky in Morning - Sailor's Warning


Red Sky - Sailor's Warning? please explain.. thanks =)
Quoting scott39:
I know its 12 days out but the GFS shows a stronger TC in the SE GOM.

I'm not going to discount this one bit.

However it should be worth noting that it was about this time last week when the GFS was showing a 948mb storm riding up the eastern GOM toward Tampa. That particular same system that it has been developing last week really is the same one we're all talking about today (96L), which is at the moment not looking to be anything more than a cat 1 based on the latest GFS runs.

But it's definitely worth keeping an eye on nonetheless.
Hey stormwatcherCI, how's your weather situation?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If it relocates the center to where futuremet is saying it would most likely go east or across the southern tip of Florida. Not up the west coast.
it, being any type of center, is not forecast to go up the west coast of Florida
2542. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:
The center seems to be relocating beneath the massive blob of convection.850mb vorticiy maps from CIMSS indicate this.







I do believe the center still at 19.5N 84.5W... which tend to agree with SFC obs:

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Red Sky - Sailor's Warning? please explain.. thanks =)
An old poem. Red Sky in the morning, sailors take warning. Red sky at night, sailors delight.
CMC 00z from yesterday expected this system to relocate its center beneath the main convection mass.

Take it look at the track:

Link
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Red Sky - Sailor's Warning? please explain.. thanks =)
sailsors/boater's statement, red sky at night, sailor's delight (meaning next day should be a good boating day weather-wise); red sky in morning, sailors take warning (meaning not a good boating day weather-wise)
Gale force from the 06Z GFDL just based on the storm speed, quickly up the east coast.


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.0 84.7 77./ 8.9
6 19.0 84.6 124./ .3
12 19.3 84.1 56./ 5.5
18 19.8 83.4 58./ 8.8
24 20.6 82.8 35./ 9.2
30 21.4 81.9 48./11.4
36 23.0 81.3 23./17.4
42 24.8 80.4 25./19.9
48 27.2 79.7 17./24.7
54 30.0 79.1 11./28.0
60 33.2 78.4 13./32.4
66 36.2 77.2 20./32.2
72 38.8 75.2 39./30.1
78 41.6 72.6 43./34.8
84 45.0 69.2 46./41.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 84 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
An old poem. Red Sky in the morning, sailors take warning. Red sky at night, sailors delight.
Thank for that. I had completely forgotten that as well. LOL
Quoting weatherwart:
Hey stormwatcherCI, how's your weather situation?
Stopped reporting at 5:20 am EST. At that time it was showing pressure at 1000 mb. Rain has been non-stop all night. Cayman Brac reported pressure at 998 mb. Something is definitely going on around here.
2549. nash28
You got it Press! We'll party. Could be a very wet Friday for us.
Quoting WxLogic:


I do believe the center still at 19.5N 84.5W... which tend to agree with SFC obs:



This is no surprise, since these systems often have multiple vortices. We will see which one will dominate.
Quoting futuremet:
If this occurs, it will likely move farther east or miss Florida. However, this puts South Carolina an the rest of the states in the southeast coast in more danger.


Shush!!
Quoting futuremet:
CMC 00z from yesterday expected this system to relocate its center beneath the main convection mass.

Take it look at the track:

Link


Good call. CMC did show it to the tee how its currently panning out.
Quoting WeatherMSK:


Good call. CMC did show it to the tee how its currently panning out.


still showing 3 systems ....
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So my real question of the day, we're in Naples, FL (SW FL). Does anyone think this thing could blow up into a Hurricane before clipping us, or is this ruled out pretty much for now? Is there anything keeping it from developing into a Hurricane at this point? Thanks!


Also in Naples. It is a big system which will hinder rapid development. There is also westerly shear from the front stalled to our north that will help to push the heaviest precip to the east of us.
Quoting nash28:
You got it Press! We'll party. Could be a very wet Friday for us.


we'll have to invite Stormjunkie...even though he's a Gamecock fan...
12 Hour



48 Hour

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Stopped reporting at 5:20 am EST. At that time it was showing pressure at 1000 mb. Rain has been non-stop all night. Cayman Brac reported pressure at 998 mb. Something is definitely going on around here.


Doesn't sound like fun. I'm thinking about y'all down there. Let's hope this thing lifts up and out quickly.
Quoting futuremet:
If it does relocate beneath the massive convection blog, we can expect a stronger system.

I agree. In this particular case if the center is indeed concentrated anywhere further south, it would have a much better chance at becoming a more potent system since it would have more time under relatively low shear & high TCHP's.
2559. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2560. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:


This is no surprise, since these systems often have multiple vortices. We will see which one will dominate.


Indeed... for now it does appear the current position is in control for the time being based on Shortwave loops.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting weatherwart:


Doesn't sound like fun. I'm thinking about y'all down there. Let's hope this thing lifts up and out quickly.
Thanks for the thoughts. It's just that I know the possibility of it developing quickly in the western Caribbean so I am watching it close.
2563. nash28
Quoting presslord:


we'll have to invite Stormjunkie...even though he's a Gamecock fan...


LOL! Yes of course. Party wouldn't be complete without SJ.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

well this sounds bad for us

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280909
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEEDED FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
AT ANY TIME>. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS>...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks for the thoughts. It's just that I know the possibility of it developing quickly in the western Caribbean so I am watching it close.


As are we all.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

I wonder what time it will go out there. At least then we will know for sure what is going on.
2568. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



At least we're getting a HH out today.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I agree. In this particular case if the center is indeed concentrated anywhere further south, it would have a much better chance at becoming a more potent system since it would have more time under relatively low shear & high TCHP's.
except the convection mass futuremet is referring to is not further south, more to the E/ENE
2570. 7544
looks like watches for so fla may go up latter on today after reading that 2 and might already be a td by then
Subtropical... in that region of the world???
It's a nice, crisp 67 degrees here in Galveston. The first cool front of the season always puts me in the mood for a pumpkin spice latte from Starbucks...liquid crack!
2574. tkeith
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Subtropical... in that region of the world???
Could be subtropical if attatched to the front...I think
2575. IKE
What I don't get is that if this front is now south of us, why is it still raining with 98% Humidity?

Hudson, FL (34667)
76.1 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the North

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.69 in(Rising)
Heat Index: 75 °F
2577. surfmom
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Red Sky - Sailor's Warning? please explain.. thanks =)
just an old nursey rhyme - means rains are coming
- Info-mercial time/Factoid for the day
The complete saying states: RED SKY IN MORNING, SAILORS WARNING; RED SKY AT NIGHT, SAILORS DELIGHT. This saying only applies to mid-latitude locations (winds are easterly in the tropics / in the high latitudes the sun rises and sets at a large deviation from the east-west trajectory). Storm systems in the middle latitudes generally move west to east. A red sky in the morning implies the rising sun in the east is shining on clouds to the west and conditions are clear to the east. Clouds moving from the west (especially upper level cirrus) indicate an approaching storm system. A red sky at night implies the sun (setting in the west) is shining on clouds to the east and conditions are clear to the west (because the sun can be seen setting). If you can see the sunset, the sky will be redder. Clouds to the east indicate an exiting storm system in the middle latitudes. Upper level clouds (especially cirrus) are noted for giving the sky a reddish hue during dawn or dusk. As a mid-latitude cyclone approaches, it is the upper level cirrus that are seen first, followed by lower clouds. The approach of upper level cirrus from the west often indicates an approaching storm system. The sky will not be as red at night if a storm system is approaching because the sun is setting behind the clouds approaching from the west. A red sky at night implies "the storm system moving through has ended!"; The clouds have broken and the sun is shining on and reddening the exiting clouds. The sun will continue to shine on clouds for a period of time after the sun has dipped below the horizon (especially cirrus). Keep in mind this saying was developed before satellite, radar and modern meteorological knowledge. Much of the knowledge of an approaching storm system back then was cloud and wind patterns. Of course, this saying (weather folklore) has some profound problems such as:

(1) The sky can be "reddish" near the sun at dawn and dusk (with or without clouds)
(2) storm systems do not always move straight west to east
(3) cirrus can occur without a storm system approaching or leaving. Clouds can cover one side of the sky or the other without being directly associated with a storm system
(4) the meteorological sailor may delight at an approaching storm system even while taking precautions at the same time
(5) rarely do the clouds from an approaching or exiting storm system only cover 1/2 of the eastern or western sky. The saying represents an ideal case.

SUMMARY: If you can see the sunrise but the west part of the sky is dark: look out for approaching bad weather. If you can see the sunset: the weather conditions will be nice.
Why is that if the High is sitting in the Atlantic?
Quoting BenBIogger:


Would likely miss FL east coast.
2579. surfmom
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Thank for that. I had completely forgotten that as well. LOL
It's good for us simple folks that still can't grasp the maps
2580. WxLogic
Based on Radar trends and Water Vapor imagery... the Front has lost momentum and stalled a couple counties to the N of my location (namely from Hernando County to Flagler County). PCPN from the SE is evident in radar indicating a deep SE flow is starting to come into CFL and should prevent further S propagation of the front. This should allow a further N displacement of the disturbance as it starts being drawn to the N then NE.
Quoting surfmom:
just an old nursey rhyme - means rains are coming
- Info-mercial time/Factoid for the day
The complete saying states: RED SKY IN MORNING, SAILORS WARNING; RED SKY AT NIGHT, SAILORS DELIGHT. This saying only applies to mid-latitude locations (winds are easterly in the tropics / in the high latitudes the sun rises and sets at a large deviation from the east-west trajectory). Storm systems in the middle latitudes generally move west to east. A red sky in the morning implies the rising sun in the east is shining on clouds to the west and conditions are clear to the east. Clouds moving from the west (especially upper level cirrus) indicate an approaching storm system. A red sky at night implies the sun (setting in the west) is shining on clouds to the east and conditions are clear to the west (because the sun can be seen setting). If you can see the sunset, the sky will be redder. Clouds to the east indicate an exiting storm system in the middle latitudes. Upper level clouds (especially cirrus) are noted for giving the sky a reddish hue during dawn or dusk. As a mid-latitude cyclone approaches, it is the upper level cirrus that are seen first, followed by lower clouds. The approach of upper level cirrus from the west often indicates an approaching storm system. The sky will not be as red at night if a storm system is approaching because the sun is setting behind the clouds approaching from the west. A red sky at night implies "the storm system moving through has ended!"; The clouds have broken and the sun is shining on and reddening the exiting clouds. The sun will continue to shine on clouds for a period of time after the sun has dipped below the horizon (especially cirrus). Keep in mind this saying was developed before satellite, radar and modern meteorological knowledge. Much of the knowledge of an approaching storm system back then was cloud and wind patterns. Of course, this saying (weather folklore) has some profound problems such as:

(1) The sky can be "reddish" near the sun at dawn and dusk (with or without clouds)
(2) storm systems do not always move straight west to east
(3) cirrus can occur without a storm system approaching or leaving. Clouds can cover one side of the sky or the other without being directly associated with a storm system
(4) the meteorological sailor may delight at an approaching storm system even while taking precautions at the same time
(5) rarely do the clouds from an approaching or exiting storm system only cover 1/2 of the eastern or western sky. The saying represents an ideal case.

SUMMARY: If you can see the sunrise but the west part of the sky is dark: look out for approaching bad weather. If you can see the sunset: the weather conditions will be nice.
the boat already left the dock :)
Quoting surfmom:
just an old nursey rhyme - means rains are coming
- Info-mercial time/Factoid for the day
The complete saying states: RED SKY IN MORNING, SAILORS WARNING; RED SKY AT NIGHT, SAILORS DELIGHT. This saying only applies to mid-latitude locations (winds are easterly in the tropics / in the high latitudes the sun rises and sets at a large deviation from the east-west trajectory). Storm systems in the middle latitudes generally move west to east. A red sky in the morning implies the rising sun in the east is shining on clouds to the west and conditions are clear to the east. Clouds moving from the west (especially upper level cirrus) indicate an approaching storm system. A red sky at night implies the sun (setting in the west) is shining on clouds to the east and conditions are clear to the west (because the sun can be seen setting). If you can see the sunset, the sky will be redder. Clouds to the east indicate an exiting storm system in the middle latitudes. Upper level clouds (especially cirrus) are noted for giving the sky a reddish hue during dawn or dusk. As a mid-latitude cyclone approaches, it is the upper level cirrus that are seen first, followed by lower clouds. The approach of upper level cirrus from the west often indicates an approaching storm system. The sky will not be as red at night if a storm system is approaching because the sun is setting behind the clouds approaching from the west. A red sky at night implies "the storm system moving through has ended!"; The clouds have broken and the sun is shining on and reddening the exiting clouds. The sun will continue to shine on clouds for a period of time after the sun has dipped below the horizon (especially cirrus). Keep in mind this saying was developed before satellite, radar and modern meteorological knowledge. Much of the knowledge of an approaching storm system back then was cloud and wind patterns. Of course, this saying (weather folklore) has some profound problems such as:

(1) The sky can be "reddish" near the sun at dawn and dusk (with or without clouds)
(2) storm systems do not always move straight west to east
(3) cirrus can occur without a storm system approaching or leaving. Clouds can cover one side of the sky or the other without being directly associated with a storm system
(4) the meteorological sailor may delight at an approaching storm system even while taking precautions at the same time
(5) rarely do the clouds from an approaching or exiting storm system only cover 1/2 of the eastern or western sky. The saying represents an ideal case.

SUMMARY: If you can see the sunrise but the west part of the sky is dark: look out for approaching bad weather. If you can see the sunset: the weather conditions will be nice.

Nice little nugget surfmom. Thank you!
Naples here too....

Just spoke to Johnny Roberts On Great Guana Cay, Abaco. They are prepared. Looks like NW Bahamas will receive the brunt of the storm compared to South Fl.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Assuming Nicole will be born today--and I don't think that's a wild assumption at this point--that would be 12 named storms during August and September. That hasn't happened during the current "active" period (1995 through now); the average over that span has been 8.1, and the maximum--11--has happened three times (2000, 2002, and 2004). (FWIW, 2005 had just ten in that two-month span, as did the hyperactive 1933 season.) Anyway, because I'm a weather nerd interested in such things, I'm looking to see how often twelve or more Aug/Sep storms have happened in the past. I'm sure it has, but I would imagine it's a fairly rare thing...


Next year has the potential to be even worse if we don't get that heat out of the Carribean.
Quoting hunkerdown:
except the convection mass futuremet is referring to is not further south, more to the E/ENE

True. You are right
2586. pottery
Good Morning all.
Lovely morning here, but it looks to be a hot day.
96L is Threatening to get itself into gear today. Heavy rains in Cayman, which must also be a big threat to Jamaica.

Good consensus on where it is headed. Homestead-south and northern Bahamas need to keep a heads up.Link
2588. MahFL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

I wonder what time it will go out there. At least then we will know for sure what is going on.


The HH will be over the disturbance at 10:30 am EDT.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Good consensus on where it is headed. Homestead-south and northern Bahamas need to keep a heads up.Link

At least compared to Matthew, this is a VERY tight consensus!
Quoting MahFL:


The HH will be over the disturbance at 10:30 am EDT.
Sounds good. I think sooner rather than later will be better for us. Our government tends to wait until something is knocking on the front door to put up warnings. I work at the post office on the southeast coast right across the street from the sea. Means taking all the mail out of the boxes, covering electronics with plastic and basically securing the post office.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Next year has the potential to be even worse if we don't get that heat out of the Carribean.


Love hearing about the 06z GFS 8160h =)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

At least compared to Matthew, this is a VERY tight consensus!
I know.
I don't think we've gotten a drop of rain in Tampa. All the computer models had us getting 5+

Quoting hunkerdown:
except the convection mass futuremet is referring to is not further south, more to the E/ENE


I agree and as a matter of fact I think this could result in a system that tracks just a bit more to the east which would keep it offshore florida. As the circulation moves north the west side in particular will be hit hard by southerly shear. I expect a pretty sloppy system with florida being on a weaker sheared side
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Next year has the potential to be even worse if we don't get that heat out of the Carribean.


Polar ice? ;)
GOM TCHP's

Quoting BobinTampa:
I don't think we've gotten a drop of rain in Tampa. All the computer models had us getting 5+



Bob,
Had a nice time in Tampa. What a great city. Will be back up for the Pitt vs. USF game.
Shear Forecast

2600. IKE
What a trough in the east...my low was 58.8.....

Good Morning All!

Looks like there is already a fair amount of northerly shear over 96L (on the west side of the trough axis).
Models have shifted left with 96L with the HWRF showing a 100mph storm over Cape Canaveral. The GFS, NAM, CMC, and Euro show this system now exiting near Cape Canaveral. Track toward SW FL then NE to Cape Canaveral. Naples NNE will be the track.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Shear Forecast



Doesn't look too bad. Might see a stronger system
2605. Grothar
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Wind switched to west and NW on the 056 buoy.

That would put the center to the NE of that Buoy.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Models have shifted left with 96L with the HWRF showing a 100mph storm over Cape Canaveral. The GFS, NAM, CMC, and Euro show this system now exiting near Cape Canaveral. Track toward SW FL then NE to Cape Canaveral. Naples NNE will be the track.


I don't see 100mph, but I do see a Cat 1 from the HWRF... that is definitely increased from before.
So satellite show 2 "blobs" of convection. Am i correct that the "center" is in the middle of them? Or is it the "blob" on the right?
Quoting mcluvincane:


Doesn't look too bad. Might see a stronger system

Very well could. Here's a closer up take on it. She (96L soon to be Nicole) has some proven weapons to work with....low shear, high TCHP'S, lack of dry air.

is there any chance of the front retreating a bit? It looks stalled to me on radar.
2611. 7544
nicloe will be the practice storm for what follows

Link
Just checked and pressure falls have seemed to level off in the area (caymans and bouys) at 1001 - 1002 mb.
Both the GFDL and HWRF 06z runs are showing Cat 1 in the Keys/S. Florida area... that's not good.
Quoting barotropic:
Just checked and pressure falls have seemed to level off in the area (caymans and bouys) at 1001 - 1002 mb.
1.77" rain since midnight.
Quoting IceSlater:


I don't see 100mph, but I do see a Cat 1 from the HWRF... that is definitely increased from before.


Here you go.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest96l.2010092806/invest96l.2010092806_anim.html#pic ture
Quoting BobinTampa:
is there any chance of the front retreating a bit? It looks stalled to me on radar.


Looks that way to me too, Bob. I've just been looking at our local radar. And if my head is any indication (pinging), it's right on top of me in Spring Hill/Brooksville area.
2618. afj3
CMC shows a nasty second storm....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010092800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
It's in the upper 70's to low 80's this morning in Orlando with 90 to 100 percent humidity. WOW!
ALERT ATCF MIL 96X XXX 100928060000
2010092806
19.0 275.0
22.5 277.5
125
19.0 275.0
280900
1009280900
1
WTNT21 KNGU 280900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 85.0W TO 22.5N 82.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 85.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITUATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
THAT COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE
IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 290900Z.//

Quoting BobinTampa:
is there any chance of the front retreating a bit? It looks stalled to me on radar.


I believe it was forecast to stall...I seem to remember reading that off of someone who's respected's forecast.
Jeff,

good morning. the storm is moving ENE. is it supposed to stall and start moving north northeast?

Because on it's current path it would go right into Miami or the Bahamas. sorry if I am looking at it wrong.
Hi.
If Nicole forms into a tropical storm, would it be tied with 2002 and 2007 for most Atlantic tropical storms in September?
There is a bouy directly under the large convective mass seen on sat. The current pressure is 1005mb which is about 3mb higher than those readings over and to the west of the caymans (further north). So the center does not appear to be forming under that large covective mass. The winds however under the mass are sustained at at about 27 knts with gusts to 32 knts for several hours now.
2625. IKE
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica (Airport)
Updated: 35 min 26 sec ago
Light Rain
76 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 75%
Dew Point: 69 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.75 in
Visibility: 9.0 miles
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1772 ft
Scattered Clouds 2559 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7874 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
1.77" rain since midnight.


Good morning

I haven't seen rain like this in a long time. Unfortunately my rain guage got blocked by a seed overnight, compliments of a ching ching !.

Cleared it now but the bucket was full so probably a couple of inches not recorded.

Today looks like a serious threat for very heavy low lying flooding with that massive complex of very deep convection just to the SSE of us. Pressure now 1002.5 mbs
Quoting barotropic:
There is a bouy directly under the large convective mass seen on sat. The current pressure is 1005mb which is about 3mb higher than those readings over and to the west of the caymans (further north). So the center does not appear to be forming under that large covective mass. The winds however under the mass are sustained at at about 27 knts with gusts to 32 knts for several hours now.

Good observation.

Yeah, it's probably a bit further to the west.
2629. hang10z
Quoting Abacosurf:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Wind switched to west and NW on the 056 buoy.

That would put the center to the NE of that Buoy.


Abacosurf... nice profile pic! What a nice left!
2630. IKE
Buoy at 19.9N and 85.1W....look at the wave heights....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 126 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.59 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.1 °F
None of newscasts that I have seen this morning have said anything about a possible tropical storm in the next 3 days. Only talk of alot of rain over the next 24hrs. The majority of the models are showing at LEAST a tropical system in or near south FLA on Thurs the 30th. If the models pan out there are gonna be alot of people very surprised.
Quoting medic2luv:
None of newscasts that I have seen this morning have said anything about a possible tropical storm in the next 3 days. Only talk of alot of rain over the next 24hrs. The majority of the models are showing at LEAST a tropical system in or near south FLA on Thurs the 30th. If the models pan out there are gonna be alot of people very surprised.


You couldn't have stated that any better
did the models shift left? track of storm is still ENE
Quoting medic2luv:
So satellite show 2 "blobs" of convection. Am i correct that the "center" is in the middle of them? Or is it the "blob" on the right?

blob on left!
Quoting Jeff9641:
Models have shifted left with 96L with the HWRF showing a 100mph storm over Cape Canaveral. The GFS, NAM, CMC, and Euro show this system now exiting near Cape Canaveral. Track toward SW FL then NE to Cape Canaveral. Naples NNE will be the track.


The HWRF has shifted slightly left, the gfdl keeps the system offshore. While the HWRF shows a 100mph storm, note no hurricane force winds onshore. That would be do to the heavy shearing sure to occur on the west side of the system as it moves north.
2636. IKE
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 28 2010 - 12Z THU SEP 30 2010

A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
CONFINE STORMY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST COAST. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY RISE NORTHWARD WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY REPLACES IT
OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING HIGHLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AS
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USHERING IN PLENTY
OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING UP AND
DOWN THE COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL RISE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SUNSHINE
STATE BY MID-WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY LISTS
THIS REGION AS A POTENTIAL LOCATION FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS IF THE STORM BECOMES
NAMED...IT WILL STILL BRING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALREADY HUNG UP OVER THE REGION...THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF COAST REGION AS THE FRONT FINALLY SLIDES EAST OF FLORIDA.
2637. 7544
td or ts at 11am or 2pm ?
Quoting kshipre1:
did the models shift left? track of storm is still ENE


Yes they did some and the storm should begin to turn NNE over the next few hours.
Quoting medic2luv:
So satellite show 2 "blobs" of convection. Am i correct that the "center" is in the middle of them? Or is it the "blob" on the right?


The HH are going out this morning. We'll know when they complete their run.
Psst...

AL, 96, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 202N, 828W, 30, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
I heard the local weather people on two networks mention that the NHC had give the blob an 80% chance of development and a tropical storm by this time tomorrow knocking on our doorsteps was not out of the realm of possibilities.
P.S. I live in S.FLA and do not watch fox7
It looks like the ULL associated with the cold front across florida has shot to the north and the front has begun to stall Link
Not much doubt where this is going short term. Nowhere fast then a hard left turn near the Caymans.

I say the COC is eirther located at 18.7N 85/84.8W or at 18.0N 79.9W
Quoting Cotillion:
Psst...

AL, 96, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 202N, 828W, 30, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Yep: any moment now...
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

I haven't seen rain like this in a long time. Unfortunately my rain guage got blocked by a seed overnight, compliments of a ching ching !.

Cleared it now but the bucket was full so probably a couple of inches not recorded.

Today looks like a serious threat for very heavy low lying flooding with that massive complex of very deep convection just to the SSE of us. Pressure now 1002.5 mbs
I got that reading from the airport. Frankly, I think that is low too. It has been raining non-stop and looks like 7-8 pm now. My son called asking about school since they all seem to flood. Haven't heard anything yet.
Quoting 7544:
td or ts at 11am or 2pm ?

TD. If not 11am, then at 2pm.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say the COC is eirther located at 18.7N 85/84.8W or at 18.0N 79.9W
Not that far east.
2649. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
Psst...

AL, 96, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 202N, 828W, 30, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


120 miles ENE of the previous coordinates.

Was at 19.0N and 85.0W, earlier.
1001mb is quite low for a disturbance. You'd typically expect that for a moderate tropical storm.

That said, being probably the most monsoonal of the lows this year, it's not too surprising. They seem to have lower pressures than normal (taking the West Pacific).

Now, when they'll upgrade it (I think we've surpassed the 'if' by now), I don't know. They may do the usual waiting for recon to investigate. That'd be the most likely event. However, given its lower pressures, they may decide to do it earlier.

May just depend simply on who is at the desk at the time.
2651. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


120+ miles ENE of the previous coordinates.
Between the two blobs?

Left, remnants of Matthew and 96L(soon to be Nicole)
Upper center: Remnants of Julia, near Bermuda
Upper right: Remnants of Lisa
Quoting tkeith:
Between the two blobs?
Yes.
000
WHXX01 KWBC 281242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100928 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100928 1200 100929 0000 100929 1200 100930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 82.8W 21.2N 83.0W 22.1N 82.8W 23.6N 81.4W
BAMD 20.2N 82.8W 21.5N 82.5W 23.6N 81.9W 26.6N 81.1W
BAMM 20.2N 82.8W 21.3N 82.9W 22.4N 82.6W 24.3N 81.4W
LBAR 20.2N 82.8W 22.1N 82.4W 25.1N 82.1W 29.4N 81.5W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100930 1200 101001 1200 101002 1200 101003 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.9N 79.6W 31.0N 76.7W 33.7N 74.3W 37.2N 68.8W
BAMD 30.1N 80.0W 37.5N 75.5W 45.8N 65.2W 53.7N 44.0W
BAMM 26.9N 79.8W 32.3N 76.7W 36.3N 72.3W 43.6N 59.8W
LBAR 34.3N 80.2W 44.5N 70.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 59KTS 64KTS 54KTS 33KTS
DSHP 49KTS 53KTS 43KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 82.8W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 83.9W DIRM12 = 48DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 85.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 360NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

SHIPs not quite so bullish as it was before.
2655. Michfan
This is going to make for an interesting day.
52 °F was our morning low today.

49 °F was our morning low yesterday.

It should warm back up a couple of degrees here, and then by early next week, we'll see yet another shot of Cool air.
Quoting IKE:


120 miles ENE of the previous coordinates.


There are actually two low centers and the NHC are now tracking the one closest to the deepest convection. If you run this loop you can see the spin at the new position but there is also a stationary low at the old position near 19 N 85.5 W

Check the lat/lon box

Until the system resolves these competing centers development will be slow.
Quoting IceSlater:


You couldn't have stated that any better


No Kidding, I'm in Deerfield Beach. Should I put shutters up for Tropical Storm? No one on the news has even mentioned preparation....
2659. nash28
06Z HWRF nails the Cape on 1st hit. 2nd hit whacks Charleston, SC. GFDL has it just to the E of Charleston. Either way, unless the west side is totally void of moisture, we're gettin wet again in a couple of days.
I watched the local news this morning in West Palm and they talked about the heavy rain expected today from the tropical moisture and then made a fleeting reference to possible tropical development. I figured I'd look on here and see models taking the storm well east, not directly over S. Florida. Strange...normally I thought the local stations erred on the side of hysteria.

Squirrel activity this morning is definitely heightened. Noticed quite a few of them blogging.
Quoting kmanislander:
Not much doubt where this is going short term. Nowhere fast then a hard left turn near the Caymans.

Thanks for that Kman, now I understand the current steering forecast!
2662. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Between the two blobs?


May be sub-tropical.
I live near Homestead Fl and am totally surprised that there is no talk on local stations about this system becoming a tropical storm. The keys are very vulnerable to these storms. This could be one of those that sneaks up on us.
SHIPS intensity model only appears to be taking her to a strong TS (60mph) at 72 hrs now.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Left, remnants of Matthew and 96L(soon to be Nicole)
Upper center: Remnants of Julia, near Bermuda
Upper right: Remnants of Lisa
Bottom Right, strong Tropical Wave
Another line of thunderstorms rolling thru my area.. I understand this is because of the stalled front not the invest moisture yet.

2nd mess of heavy rain this morning...

good morning once again everyone.


I have a feeling we could have another Irene on our hands... back in 1999 we had invest Irene and then weak TS Irene no one panic, no one closed schools or work, etc..then Irene became a Cat 1 as it came across the Everglades and caught everyone in Cat 1 winds going home from work and school... bad forcast.. "they say" they put out hurricane warnings 6 hrs in advance...but they did not or schools would have let out and business would have closed.

I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.
Quoting IKE:


May be sub-tropical.


I doubt that.
Quoting AnneBytheSea:


No Kidding, I'm in Deerfield Beach. Should I put shutters up for Tropical Storm? No one on the news has even mentioned preparation....


Local news are monitoring and it's not a Tropical Storm yet so just watch the news. I would not put up shutters for a tropical storm though.
Quoting DookiePBC:
I watched the local news this morning in West Palm and they talked about the heavy rain expected today from the tropical moisture and then made a fleeting reference to possible tropical development. I figured I'd look on here and see models taking the storm well east, not directly over S. Florida. Strange...normally I thought the local stations erred on the side of hysteria.

Squirrel activity this morning is definitely heightened. Noticed quite a few of them blogging.

LOL. I've been wondering what the squirrels have been doing lately!!
and Irene while had some winds and blew down some trees... we had 2-3 days of flooding in some neighborhoods including mine.
2672. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I doubt that.


From the latest TWO....

"THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW."
Quoting seflagamma:
Another line of thunderstorms rolling thru my area.. I understand this is because of the stalled front not the invest moisture yet.

2nd mess of heavy rain this morning...

good morning once again everyone.


I have a feeling we could have another Irene on our hands... back in 1999 we had invest Irene and then weak TS Irene no one panic, no one closed schools or work, etc..then Irene became a Cat 1 as it came across the Everglades and caught everyone in Cat 1 winds going home from work and school... back forcast.. "they say" they put out hurricane warnings 6 hrs in advance...but they did not or schools would have let out and business would have closed.

I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.
Same here. IO am still waiting for local news to say something. Rain is coming down so hard now looks like night and not a word about schools closing and the schools here flood in the best of times.
Quoting AnneBytheSea:


No Kidding, I'm in Deerfield Beach. Should I put shutters up for Tropical Storm? No one on the news has even mentioned preparation....


It doesn't take too long to put up shutters. I'd wait on that... wait and see if the models get confirmed. You'll still have time to prepare as long as you've already got everything.

Personally, I would definitely put up shutters for a Cat 1 or even a strong TS. I don't mess around.

If a storm strengthens hours before landfall, it could be too late to put them up.

So, no, not now... but maybe early tomorrow. Just stay tuned!
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W
Quoting IKE:


May be sub-tropical.
probally right it seems as if its going to be mixed up with a cold front
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/96L
MARK
20.23N/82.85W


Quoting IKE:


From the latest TWO....

"THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW."

Yeah...I'm not ruling that scenario out either IKE
should we expect a TD Or TRopical Storm Later Today and if So i would Expect Warnings to be issued
777

WHXX01 KWBC 281242

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1242 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100928 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100928 1200 100929 0000 100929 1200 100930 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.2N 82.8W 21.2N 83.0W 22.1N 82.8W 23.6N 81.4W

BAMD 20.2N 82.8W 21.5N 82.5W 23.6N 81.9W 26.6N 81.1W

BAMM 20.2N 82.8W 21.3N 82.9W 22.4N 82.6W 24.3N 81.4W

LBAR 20.2N 82.8W 22.1N 82.4W 25.1N 82.1W 29.4N 81.5W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 52KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100930 1200 101001 1200 101002 1200 101003 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 25.9N 79.6W 31.0N 76.7W 33.7N 74.3W 37.2N 68.8W

BAMD 30.1N 80.0W 37.5N 75.5W 45.8N 65.2W 53.7N 44.0W

BAMM 26.9N 79.8W 32.3N 76.7W 36.3N 72.3W 43.6N 59.8W

LBAR 34.3N 80.2W 44.5N 70.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 59KTS 64KTS 54KTS 33KTS

DSHP 49KTS 53KTS 43KTS 23KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 82.8W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 83.9W DIRM12 = 48DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 85.5W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 360NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting IKE:


From the latest TWO....

"THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW."


How'd I know you were going to post that? :)

I just dont believe it will develop into a subtropical storm.

Now, as it heads up the east coast (If it does), I believe it will slowly transition, but I dont believe it will start subtropical.
I personally believe local news in S. Florida is taking a huge risk by NOT "wishcasting" this disturbance.

Really, it's already too late because they have implanted "lots of heavy rain only" in everyone's head.
Quoting hulazigzag:
It looks like the ULL associated with the cold front across florida has shot to the north and the front has begun to stall Link



The front will retrograde slightly today.

Morning All.

Seems last nights obs were correct 80% this morning. What is everyone's thoughts on strength in the near term to splash down in the W-ATL?
Quoting kmanislander:


There are actually two low centers and the NHC are now tracking the one closest to the deepest convection. If you run this loop you can see the spin at the new position but there is also a stationary low at the old position near 19 N 85.5 W

Check the lat/lon box

Until the system resolves these competing centers development will be slow.
Morning Kman.Looks like we are in for a wet day?Very heavy downpours last night,just going to check boat LOL
IKE this is not sub tropical. LOL! Very much a tropical system developing down there.
Quoting newportrinative:


Local news are monitoring and it's not a Tropical Storm yet so just watch the news. I would not put up shutters for a tropical storm though.


Thanks :)
Now that I've got absolutely everyone on ignore, the comment section is a MUCH nicer place!
I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.

I remember driving home in that with 4 children down Broward Blvd....scary!
Quoting nash28:
06Z HWRF nails the Cape on 1st hit. 2nd hit whacks Charleston, SC. GFDL has it just to the E of Charleston. Either way, unless the west side is totally void of moisture, we're gettin wet again in a couple of days.


Actually Nash you skipped the keys and SE Florida which actually get or nearly get hurricane force winds (see HWRF). The Cape escapes with tropical storm force winds with hurricane force winds well offshorel. The GFDL shows same, with more eastward track.
Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W


See my post 2657. That is the original position for the low that was being tracked and it is still there. This system is typical of slow monsoonal type development where the so callled center can move around and multiple lows within a large gyre are common. Makes for a very slow pace of development.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
should we expect a TD Or TRopical Storm Later Today and if So i would Expect Warnings to be issued


Expect TS Nicole later today.
Quoting superpete:
Morning Kman.Looks like we are in for a wet day?Very heavy downpours last night,just going to check boat LOL


Good morning. Yeah, have to check mine as well but have the bilge pump on a trickle charger just to make sure LOL
Quoting IceSlater:


It doesn't take too long to put up shutters. I'd wait on that... wait and see if the models get confirmed. You'll still have time to prepare as long as you've already got everything.

Personally, I would definitely put up shutters for a Cat 1 or even a strong TS. I don't mess around.

If a storm strengthens hours before landfall, it could be too late to put them up.

So, no, not now... but maybe early tomorrow. Just stay tuned!


Probably right, but putting up shutters in torrential downpours in not very much fun. Should actually be avoided. This probably won't be a heavy wind event, so shutters may be unnecessary. But it all depends on your personal definition of risk. I will not likely do anything unless things change drastically. But then I'd be preparing in sheets of rain. Ugh!
Funny.

The last Nicole was subtropical as well.

Well, regardless, seems the forecasters think this doesn't have long to live.
Quoting lickitysplit:
Now that I've got absolutely everyone on ignore, the comment section is a MUCH nicer place!


Because its quiet?

I mean, it would have to be if you had everyone on your ignore list.

:)
2697. 7544
no shutters for this one but the next one maybe this is a good trail run for whats coming next check it out here

Link
Looks like we'll have nicole by noon. Busy season.
i am from Louisiana but now living in central FL and I am just shocked at how nonchalant these weather forecasters are here. When living near the Gulf, one does not let their guard down for one second, esp in the area this low is. I hope it doesn tcome to anything but rain, but you keep one eye on it at all times. The forecasters on the news are writing it off to go off to the east....using models that were run about 6 hours ago lol (sigh)
Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W
where exactly are you? thats all ocean! are u on a ship?
Quoting IceSlater:
I personally believe local news in S. Florida is taking a huge risk by NOT "wishcasting" this disturbance.

Really, it's already too late because they have implanted "lots of heavy rain only" in everyone's head.


I'm watching NBC and the local met is mentioning the possiblity for development. That's all she can do since it's a wait and see game at the moment.
Quoting seflagamma:
Another line of thunderstorms rolling thru my area.. I understand this is because of the stalled front not the invest moisture yet.

2nd mess of heavy rain this morning...

good morning once again everyone.


I have a feeling we could have another Irene on our hands... back in 1999 we had invest Irene and then weak TS Irene no one panic, no one closed schools or work, etc..then Irene became a Cat 1 as it came across the Everglades and caught everyone in Cat 1 winds going home from work and school... bad forcast.. "they say" they put out hurricane warnings 6 hrs in advance...but they did not or schools would have let out and business would have closed.

I was here watching the radar and reading the updates..and there were NO warnings issues at all, nor hurricane watches...
The forcasters totally missed Irene.


Let's hope this is no Irene! (Hope all is well)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



The front will retrograde slightly today.

Morning All.

Seems last nights obs were correct 80% this morning. What is everyone's thoughts on strength in the near term to splash down in the W-ATL?

If a COC becomes defined & closes off, then I don't see any reason to see a some mediocre intensification at the least.
2704. Jax82
If i'm looking at this correctly I dont see a naples to canaveral 100MPH hurricane, i see a storm that may stay off the coast of florida with a lot of convection that would be east of the center. What models are showing differently?

Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W


Wow, someone from Utila. I was looking at Utila last night on Google Earth. If i'm not mistaken, the island is volcanic. Is there any evidence of ongoing volcanism presently? I have the volcano layer activated but it didn't say past or present activity. How strong were the winds last night?
While I completely understand that the news doesn't want to "cry wolf", I still believe that they should throw it out there to give everyone a heads up. They have no problem doing that when a system is 1000+miles away, why not now?

And Yes, seflgamma, I do remember Irene. There was alot of "blaming" going around back then.
Quoting utilaeastwind:
New Blob at 85N 18.5W looks interesting.

We had a massive squall at this energy was passing Utila last night.

Our location 16.1N 86.9W


There is a bouy directly under the large convective mass seen on sat. The current pressure is 1005mb which is about 3mb higher than those readings over and to the west of the caymans (further north). So the center does not appear to be forming under that large covective mass. The winds however under the mass are sustained at at about 27 knts with gusts to 32 knts for several hours now.
Quoting lickitysplit:
Looks like we'll have nicole by noon. Busy season.

She is on her way no doubt
Actually, you look from Hermine in 2004:

Hermine, tropical storm.
Ivan, major - strongest storm of the year
Jeanne, major
Karl, major
Lisa, hurricane
Matthew, tropical storm.
Nicole, subtropical storm.

That's pretty close to this year's names.

What coincidence.
Quoting Jax82:
If i'm looking at this correctly I dont see a naples to canaveral 100MPH hurricane, i see a storm that may stay off the coast of florida with a lot of convection that would be east of the center. What models are showing differently?



+1
2712. nash28
Quoting barotropic:


Actually Nash you skipped the keys and SE Florida which actually get or nearly get hurricane force winds (see HWRF). The Cape escapes with tropical storm force winds with hurricane force winds well offshorel. The GFDL shows same, with more eastward track.


Yeah... Sorry. Busy at work and didn't mean to leave out the initial hits.
Invest96L : NHC-ATCF
27Sep 12pmGMT - - 18.0n85.5w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
27Sep 06pmGMT - - 18.3n84.6w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
28Sep 12amGMT - - 18.7n83.9w - - 25knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
28Sep 06amGMT - - 19.4n83.3w - - 30knots -- 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
28Sep 12pmGMT - - 20.2n82.8w - - 30knots -- 1001mb - NHC-ATCF
25knots=~28.8mph=46.3km/h __ 30knots=~34.5mph=~55.6km/h

Copy &paste 18.0n85.5w-18.3n84.6w, 18.3n84.6w-18.7n83.9w, 18.7n83.9w-19.4n83.3w, 19.4n83.3w-20.2n82.8w, ctm, hav, pot into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours.

ctm hav pot, and NHC's overindulged:
been hallucinating ever-changing (then disappearing) center positions since 12amGMT 26Sep
Quoting Cotillion:
Actually, you look from Hermine in 2004:

Hermine, tropical storm.
Ivan, major - strongest storm of the year
Jeanne, major
Karl, major
Lisa, hurricane
Matthew, tropical storm.
Nicole, subtropical storm.

That's pretty close to this year's names.

What coincidence.
LOL. Coincidence is right!
Quoting Jax82:
If i'm looking at this correctly I dont see a naples to canaveral 100MPH hurricane, i see a storm that may stay off the coast of florida with a lot of convection that would be east of the center. What models are showing differently?

....that position for the center seems off,based of vis sat its close to 19n,85w.....
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning. Yeah, have to check mine as well but have the bilge pump on a trickle charger just to make sure LOL


Isn't it fun dealing with boats on days like these.

I have a dive shop on Utila and with systems like this there is no almost no sleep at night.

Looks like you will be having serious action in Cayman. Good luck!
Quoting newportrinative:


I'm watching NBC and the local met is mentioning the possiblity for development. That's all she can do since it's a wait and see game at the moment.


Saying "possibility for development" in S. Florida means nothing to the majority of people here.

Look, hopefully the relaxed mood on this pans out!

If it doesn't, though, they will all be getting ripped for not stating what they see in the models, etc.
Max Mayfield on local TV now, saying it's likely not a wind event, but huge RAIN event like "Irene". He said "Turnaround, don't drown". (Talking about driving). I better charge my portable DVD player since I'm SURE Comcast will go down.... Better tell the husband to get the generator prepared just in case. (And better buy Ritz crackers and Cheeze Wiz.)

My front yard floods with a heavy rain. A little nervous about how far up the drive it is going to come. We'll see....
2719. srada

Good Morning Everyone!

10.33 inches of rain in wilmington yesterday and 2 inches more expected today and Wednesday and Thursday, well that depends on the track of the storm..there were 700 911 calls made yesterday due to accidents and people cars getting stuck in flooded waters..As far as future Nicole,its a wait and see situation as far as the mets for the track and intensity..right now they are calling for a low to pass through our area but all that can change
Quoting IceSlater:
I personally believe local news in S. Florida is taking a huge risk by NOT "wishcasting" this disturbance.

Really, it's already too late because they have implanted "lots of heavy rain only" in everyone's head.



I dont think its a "huge risk" marine folks are well aware of this system down there and are ready if need be. Otherwise, looks like for inland areas heavy rains and possible TS force winds. How long does it take to bring in the lawn furniture and garbage cans?? I honestly dont believe its going to be a shutter up storm. this is all IMO of course.
The NHC named Bonnie, Fiona, Gaston & Hermine as Tropical Storms this year. Bonnie looked awful, meanwhile this 96L has a central pressure of 1002 MB and id producing much more tropical storm force winds and rain than Bonnie did and it's still NOT a TD??
Quoting stillwaiting:
....that position for the center seems off,based of vis sat its close to 19n,85w.....

That's very close to where I would plot it anyway.
It's gonna be a whole different story on the news if the NHC declares 96L a TD or TS later this afternoon.
Quoting southbeachdude:


Let's hope this is no Irene! (Hope all is well)


I remember that storm (broward county) real well. Boy did the NHC mess that one up....LOL.
looks like the low and the tracks shifted east and may not directly hit FL.
2726. OneDrop
Quoting AnneBytheSea:


No Kidding, I'm in Deerfield Beach. Should I put shutters up for Tropical Storm? No one on the news has even mentioned preparation....
Good morning. Deerfield Beach here as well. I don't think shutters are necessary unless there is some rapid development throughout the day. I'm in The Cove east of Federal hwy and I'm not even close to shutter mode. The news is just saying heavy rain and some wind so just keep an eye out for the 2pm update and then make a decision from there. I don't think it will be too bad the next couple of days and it's just a waiting game now.
The two competing low centers can now be seen clearly on the visible loop at 20 / 82 and 19 / 85

Link
ok.. i am calling it we have TD16 as of 8AM .....by sat observation.
Morning peeps!

Local weather stating a flood watch starting at 4pm today, expecting 6"-12" of rain! With an 80% chance I'm not sure why no one has stated that we MAY have a TS on our hands later as well.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Should be a fun day! =)
2730. 7544
may shoot right to ts nicole at 11am ?
Quoting kmanislander:
The two competing low centers can now be seen clearly on the visible loop at 20 / 82 and 19 / 85

Link

Morning, kman!
Dueling vortices. (I hear banjo music.) It will be really interesting to see what the HH come back with.
Quoting kmanislander:
The two competing low centers can now be seen clearly on the visible loop at 20 / 82 and 19 / 85

Link


If I had to pick one, it would be the one just south of the isle of pines.
Quoting KeysieLife:
Morning peeps!

Local weather stating a flood watch starting at 4pm today, expecting 6"-12" of rain! With an 80% chance I'm not sure why no one has stated that we MAY have a TS on our hands later as well.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Should be a fun day! =)


Wow!! 6 - 12 incches of rain? Our local mets (Ft Lauderdale) are saying 3 -5
Quoting weatherwart:

Morning, kman!
Dueling vortices. (I hear banjo music.) It will be really interesting to see what the HH come back with.


More evidence of twin lows

I can see perhaps two centers
85w/19n and 83w/20.5n (being the more dominate)
Quoting RMM34667:
What I don't get is that if this front is now south of us, why is it still raining with 98% Humidity?

Hudson, FL (34667)
76.1 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the North

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.69 in(Rising)
Heat Index: 75 °F

It has stalled over you...but reinforcement is coming..but then Nicole will push that back NW a bit...
Be interesting if, once this passes land in not much of a state with any luck, it surpasses Force 12 as a subtropical system in the open Atlantic.

(Should state that it won't happen. Just be interesting if it occurred).
Quoting kmanislander:


More evidence of twin lows



Which one do you think will be the dominant one as time goes on today KMan?
Hello again,
Reading back, thanks for those who commented...

Irene was a total mis forcast and yes a lot of blame was going around for not give anyone a heads up. I was at work and watching radar...watching that tc spin it's way across the Florida Straights and Glades toward SE Fla...

It was a big rain event.. some places down in Dade County got like 21"...

our power went off for about 24 hours and we were flooded but not nearly as bad as others..
I did not get rain in my house but had 7" in my garage and back patio and the street was mid thigh deep..we floaded rubber boats down the street!


I am home today and I've watched the local news for our area and saw Max Mayfield last night and a few others this morning.. they are talking about the invest and possibly a storm but like someone said..they are not really talking wind at all ...just flooding rain...and we are already under flood watches.
Quoting FSUstormnut:
looks like the low and the tracks shifted east and may not directly hit FL.


Looking at the Sat images, it seems like the system is moving more E than NE. May skip on by.
Latest thoughts from TPC 48hrs. That's 997mb and a high end Tropical Storm.

Quoting IceSlater:


Saying "possibility for development" in S. Florida means nothing to the majority of people here.

Look, hopefully the relaxed mood on this pans out!

If it doesn't, though, they will all be getting ripped for not stating what they see in the models, etc.


What else can they say? They are going by the NHC forecast. They can't predict something that hasn't happened yet.
As it currently stands, it's going to be rain event for us. If it looks like it's going to change, they will advise. We have time to get ready if this system blows up. I have no worries.
Quoting kmanislander:


More evidence of twin lows


Which one are you thinking will become the primary low & future TS?
28/1145 UTC 21.0N 82.8W ST1.5 96L -- Atlantic
2745. nativ
It is looking more and more likely that we will have a second storm and that it will most likely be better organized as this first storm will pull out all the extra energy and allow the second to consolidate easier! imo
2746. afj3
Models are shifting to the right. Looks like Hurricanes101 was right after all....
28/1145 UTC 21.0N 82.8W ST1.5 96L still a ways to go
oh someone above ask about putting up shutters for a TS... back when we had to put up plywood shutters and they took 2 strong people and hours to do and it... we never put up those shutters for TS and sometimes not even for weak Cat1...

but now I have according shutters, if we have a strong TS I may shut a few of them over large windows or windows that could get a tree branch thur them...just because it would be silly not to use them..they are easy to shut..

But remember Wilma was only suppose to have given us Cat 1 winds as it came across the state for us from the back door....and lucky at the last minute many neighbors went out and started putting up shutters.

I was here so I knew it was going to be tough and fainlly talked hubby to put up some shutters on our windows and so glad he did.. Wilma ended up be a major big wind event for us..
Quoting newportrinative:


What else can they say? They are going by the NHC forecast. They can't predict something that hasn't happened yet.
As it currently stands, it's going to be rain event for us. If it looks like it's going to change, they will advise. We have time to get ready if this system blows up. I have no worries.


It's called an opinion.

I have no worries, either. But you and I are here on a weather blog (at least most of the time). 99.9% of the people are not. They will all be stunned.
Quoting afj3:
Models are shifting to the right. Looks like Hurricanes101 was right after all....


They changed the models to the Low southwest of Cuba.

That's why the models have changed.
Quoting newportrinative:


What else can they say? They are going by the NHC forecast. They can't predict something that hasn't happened yet.


What is a prediction if you wait until it happens?
2753. kwgirl
Quoting floridays:
I live near Homestead Fl and am totally surprised that there is no talk on local stations about this system becoming a tropical storm. The keys are very vulnerable to these storms. This could be one of those that sneaks up on us.
I think the NHC has a pretty good handle on this. It will be a very wet and windy rain storm. Once off the east coast of Fl. may very well develop except for the front that has stalled and may provide some shear. Depends on how fast it moves and whether it moves over the mountains of Cuba. I love where Cuba is in relation to the Keys. It seems to provide some protection from hurricanes by virtue of its terrain.
2754. 7544
sub tropical might not be out of the question hmmm
2755. nash28
Quoting afj3:
Models are shifting to the right. Looks like Hurricanes101 was right after all....


Actually, the HWRF came left on the 06z. GFDL remained basically unchanged.
Quoting barotropic:


Which one do you think will be the dominant one as time goes on today KMan?


The one near 20 / 82 is the stronger of the two for now but it is also closest to the front that is dropping down near the Yucatan channel and may be feeling some shear later today. It could get sheared out leaving the low to the SW to take over or it could get pulled up and out also leaving the second low behind to set up another system.

It's quite a complicated set up out there right now because the low to the SW is further removed from the digging front and may have a better chance of wrapping up the convection. If a TD does form from the dominant low it will likely be lopsided with most of the deep convection off to the East side of the circulation.

Here is the shear tendency map. You can see how shear has been building immediately to the West of the dominant low from the digging front. At the same time the other low is sitting in a pocket of very low shear.


Satellite images of 96L (Nicole) and the remnant low of Julia
Quoting kwgirl:
I think the NHC has a pretty good handle on this. It will be a very wet and windy rain storm. Once off the east coast of Fl. may very well develop except for the front that has stalled and may provide some shear. Depends on how fast it moves and whether it moves over the mountains of Cuba. I love where Cuba is in relation to the Keys. It seems to provide some protection from hurricanes by virtue of its terrain.


I think you are under estimating people. All my neighbors are watching this system to see if it develops.....the news (IMO) is doing an excellent job stating for right now a rain event but monitoring for future development. I think that sums it up for everyone to understand.
Quoting Bordonaro:
The NHC named Bonnie, Fiona, Gaston & Hermine as Tropical Storms this year. Bonnie looked awful, meanwhile this 96L has a central pressure of 1002 MB and id producing much more tropical storm force winds and rain than Bonnie did and it's still NOT a TD??


Pressure (MSLP): 1001 mb (29.56 inHg | 1001 hPa)
2760. afj3
Quoting nash28:


Actually, the HWRF came left on the 06z. GFDL remained basically unchanged.

HWRF does bring the center over SE Florida. That's correct...
What time will we know what the Hurricane Hunters found?
Quoting IceSlater:


What is a prediction if you wait until it happens?


So what are they suppose to say? That we have a Tropical Storm coming when we currently don't. They are stating an 80% of better development. I don't get what you want them to say.....
Whats left of Julia is hitting Bermuda..
Quoting kmanislander:


The one near 20 / 82 is the stronger of the two for now but it is also closest to the front that is dropping down near the Yucatan channel and may be feeling some shear later today. It could get sheared out leaving the low to the SW to take over or it could get pulled up and out also leaving the second low behind to set up another system.

It's quite a complicated set up out there right now because the low to the SW is further removed from the digging front and may have a better chance of wrapping up the convection. If a TD does form from the dominant low it will likely be lopsided with most of the deep convection off to the East side of the circulation.

Here is the shear tendency map. You can see how shear has been building immediately to the West of the dominant low from the digging front. At the same time the other low is sitting in a pocket of very low shear.



I agree.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Which one are you thinking will become the primary low & future TS?


See my post 2756
2766. primez
So the models might be taking this blob to the mid-atlantic and new england. just lovely, more rain.

I'm not worried about it developing, but I am disappointed by the lack of sunshine for the next week and maybe even longer. :/
Quoting BLee2333:


Pressure (MSLP): 1001 mb (29.56 inHg | 1001 hPa)

Thanks, and 96L is a closed Low and I believe the NWS should name it TS Nicole.

This system is going to be a huge rainmaker, you have a system which dropped 10" on the Cayman Islands yesterday, add a trough and the barclinic lift, we have a huge flood making storm.
Current "Plan of the Day"
000
NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06
AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 28/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
From local weatherman: 80% that tropical storm Nicole is forming. Current satellite image for Invest 96. Near Tropical Storm force winds are already being reported. http://fb.me/ACM3toV
Quoting kmanislander:


The one near 20 / 82 is the stronger of the two for now but it is also closest to the front that is dropping down near the Yucatan channel and may be feeling some shear later today. It could get sheared out leaving the low to the SW to take over or it could get pulled up and out also leaving the second low behind to set up another system.

It's quite a complicated set up out there right now because the low to the SW is further removed from the digging front and may a better chance of wrapping up the convection. If a TD does form from the dominant low it will likely be lopsided with most of the deep convection off to the East side of the circulation.

Here is the shear tendency map. You can see how shear has been building immediately to the West of the dominant low from the digging front. At the same time the other low is sitting in a pocket of very low shear.



Good info, thanks. This could also explain some of the models showing two consecutive systems coming north I guess
Updated my blog:

Link
kman, didn't one of the models have a system split in two at one point. I seem to remember someone laughing about it at the time but don't remember which model. Maybe someone else remembers.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
where exactly are you? thats all ocean! are u on a ship?


am on the island Utila off the north coast of Honduras.

Too small for the sat. maps
2774. 7544
the big red ball is drifting north ?
Quoting kwgirl:
I think the NHC has a pretty good handle on this. It will be a very wet and windy rain storm. Once off the east coast of Fl. may very well develop except for the front that has stalled and may provide some shear. Depends on how fast it moves and whether it moves over the mountains of Cuba. I love where Cuba is in relation to the Keys. It seems to provide some protection from hurricanes by virtue of its terrain.

Only from storms approaching from the south. Now if you get something coming from the East (Andrew, for instance), the FL Keys aren't protected from anything.
Quoting Kristina40:
kman, didn't one of the models have a system split in two at one point. I seem to remember someone laughing about it at the time but don't remember which model. Maybe someone else remembers.


The GFS had two systems coming from the NW Caribbean in rapid succession
Quoting SevereWeather:
28/1145 UTC 21.0N 82.8W ST1.5 96L -- Atlantic

What does the "ST" stand for????
Quoting afj3:
CMC shows a nasty second storm....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010092800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Holy Guacamole!!!
2779. afj3
Quoting 7544:
the big red ball is drifting north ?

Not sure anybody knows where it's going...hence the delay on postings in here...
Thanks kman. I thought I remembered something like that.
Quoting kmanislander:


See my post 2756

Yep, just checked it out. Excellent explanation.

Thank you
Well, I have to head off now but will check in later. It will be very interesting to see what the HH finds out there.
2783. ssmate
Quoting IceSlater:


What is a prediction if you wait until it happens?
I'm predicting the Bears will beat the Packers on Monday Night Football.
Quoting Bordonaro:

What does the "ST" stand for????


Subtropical.
This is what it was like here when Matthew passed a couple days ago.

This photo was a real crowd pleaser. This is the Chief of Police with his speed boat.

Sorry Fidi.



More photos of Matthew at www.utilaeastwind.com
Quoting Cotillion:


Subtropical.

Then they need to name this Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole already and issue TS warnings and Flash Flood warnings :O)!
Quoting seflagamma:
Hello again,
Reading back, thanks for those who commented...

Irene was a total mis forcast and yes a lot of blame was going around for not give anyone a heads up. I was at work and watching radar...watching that tc spin it's way across the Florida Straights and Glades toward SE Fla...

It was a big rain event.. some places down in Dade County got like 21"...

our power went off for about 24 hours and we were flooded but not nearly as bad as others..
I did not get rain in my house but had 7" in my garage and back patio and the street was mid thigh deep..we floaded rubber boats down the street!


I am home today and I've watched the local news for our area and saw Max Mayfield last night and a few others this morning.. they are talking about the invest and possibly a storm but like someone said..they are not really talking wind at all ...just flooding rain...and we are already under flood watches.


I wouldn't take my kids to school the day of Irene, my husband thought I was being crazy. However, when he then had to drive home through the storm, he was glad I stayed home. Our area flooded so bad we couldn't get out for almost 2 days, some of the local kids were using jet skis. Pays to pay attention.
2788. afj3
Quoting Bordonaro:

Then they need to name this Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole already and issue TS warnings and Flash Flood warnings :O)!

Remember in 2008 when they took forever to give Faye a name while it wreaked havoc over Hispanola?
8 AM models showing a shift eastward on wunderground
From the local Met:

There are two scenarios that could happen with the system coming to SFL.

1) The H off the east coast holds and with the front to the north the two will "funnel" all the moisture through the Keys and East Coast.

2) The H breaks and continues moving east over the ATL which draws everything more over the water.

With the models suggesting that a system follows up the East coast, IMO I'm looking at the latter. It will be hard for the system to overcome the mountainous terrain of Cuba so I don't really expect any major development or RI.
Quoting nash28:


Actually, the HWRF came left on the 06z. GFDL remained basically unchanged.



If they start issuing advisories today, this would most likely be the output on track.

Quoting Bordonaro:

What does the "ST" stand for????


Sub-Tropical.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Latest thoughts from TPC 48hrs. That's 997mb and a high end Tropical Storm.



Wow...

Yes this Looks like a Florida East coast storm
Clearly a circulation there, I don't think it's Subtropical yet, still fully Tropical to me. Looks like a Tropical Storm. Nicole should be here shortly, maybe 5 p.m. at the latest. Plus I've never seen a Subtropical Storm in the Caribbean before.

Deep convection almost around the center = Fully Tropical to me.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



If they start issuing advisories today, this would most likely be the output on track.


If that's the case, then unfortunately SC could very well be it's next destination after FL
Link to the HRWF model loop, I believe the intensity is way to high though, all I see is a string TS and then it races up the E Coast:
Link
Expect a TS Watch from Key Largo, Florida to Jupiter,Florida Later Today.
Quoting afj3:

Remember in 2008 when they took forever to give Faye a name while it wreaked havoc over Hispanola?


Who cares if it gets a name or not. Its not going to change the sensible weather. This is going to be nothing more than a heavy rain event with some gusty winds. The circulation is way to broad to become truly tropical. It will be subtropical at best.
Quoting reedzone:
Clearly a circulation there, I don't think it's Subtropical yet, still fully Tropical to me. Looks like a Tropical Storm. Nicole should be here shortly, maybe 5 p.m. at the latest. Plus I've never seen a Subtropical Storm in the Caribbean before.

Deep convection almost around the center = Fully Tropical to me.


Agree 100%
2801. nash28
Quoting cat5hurricane:

If that's the case, then unfortunately SC could very well be it's next destination after FL


Gonna be a wet windy day for the Charleston area up the coast through NC.
Where are you putting the center of circulation at? It appears to me that we have two centers working out there right now. I am looking more at center towards Belize. Just gut feeling this will be "2nd" nasty storm that models have been showing for sometime

Quoting reedzone:
Clearly a circulation there, I don't think it's Subtropical yet, still fully Tropical to me. Looks like a Tropical Storm. Nicole should be here shortly, maybe 5 p.m. at the latest. Plus I've never seen a Subtropical Storm in the Caribbean before.

Deep convection almost around the center = Fully Tropical to me.
2803. 7544
looks like the big red blob is drifting north to meet up with little red blob ?
Quoting reedzone:
Clearly a circulation there, I don't think it's Subtropical yet, still fully Tropical to me. Looks like a Tropical Storm. Nicole should be here shortly, maybe 5 p.m. at the latest. Plus I've never seen a Subtropical Storm in the Caribbean before.

Deep convection almost around the center = Fully Tropical to me.


If it is indeed tropical, wouldn't it get beaten badly crossing Cuba?
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link to the HRWF model loop, I believe the intensity is way to high though, all I see is a string TS and then it races up the E Coast:
Link
The HRWF intensity in regards to 96L has been on the upper tier for a while it seems like.
ST = Stationary not Sub-Tropical
2807. kwgirl
Quoting newportrinative:


I think you are under estimating people. All my neighbors are watching this system to see if it develops.....the news (IMO) is doing an excellent job stating for right now a rain event but monitoring for future development. I think that sums it up for everyone to understand.
Yes, you are correct. Watch and be ready. Here in the Keys we always watch the weather. It is not unusual to have a squall blow up and come in with 40+ winds. And the news is doing a good job stating the facts as they know them now.
Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares if it gets a name or not. Its not going to change the sensible weather. This is going to be nothing more than a heavy rain event with some gusty winds. The circulation is way to broad to become truly tropical. It will be subtropical at best.


Not
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link to the HRWF model loop, I believe the intensity is way to high though, all I see is a string TS and then it races up the E Coast:
Link


It's becoming a little more clear that the most likely outcome will be a right loaded mid-strong tropical/subtropical storm for the lower peninsula, with the greatest impacts along the immediate east coast.
@2605, sure wish the models would get into agreement.
GOES East has been placed into Rapid Scan Mode, which means eight images per hour. Need to use the GHCC site to see them though.

GHCC visible loop
Looking at the visible on 96L looks like center of circulation is about 100 miles or so south of isle of pines Cuba? Also if this becomes subtropical that would be better right as it most likely not be able to get hurricane force winds?
2813. afj3
Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares if it gets a name or not. Its not going to change the sensible weather. This is going to be nothing more than a heavy rain event with some gusty winds. The circulation is way to broad to become truly tropical. It will be subtropical at best.

My point being is that people take systems less seriously if they don't have names. While this is less a factor in the United States, in the Caribbean, a blob can cause mudslides and kill people...Look what happened in Venezuela in December 1999. No name, dozens of thousands dead.
2814. nash28
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


If it is indeed tropical, wouldn't it get beaten badly crossing Cuba?


Depends of what part of Cuba it crosses. Eastern Cuba it would get torn up. Western tip is flat.
Quoting reedzone:
Clearly a circulation there, I don't think it's Subtropical yet, still fully Tropical to me. Looks like a Tropical Storm. Nicole should be here shortly, maybe 5 p.m. at the latest. Plus I've never seen a Subtropical Storm in the Caribbean before.

Deep convection almost around the center = Fully Tropical to me.


Wheres the Center?
it's going to start wrapping here soon around the COC
Quoting 7544:
sub tropical might not be out of the question hmmm

At this point I think it's very likely with the set up of shear and the dry air to the NW. This is more like a later in Fall set up.
Quoting nash28:


Gonna be a wet windy day for the Charleston area up the coast through NC.
Yep...that's what it looks like at this moment.

We had some much needed rain the past couple days. But we can live without the TS force winds though!!
Quoting 7544:
looks like the big red blob is drifting north to meet up with little red blob ?



It's going to start wrapping around the COC soon.
Quoting seflagamma:
Hello again,
Reading back, thanks for those who commented...

Irene was a total mis forcast and yes a lot of blame was going around for not give anyone a heads up. I was at work and watching radar...watching that tc spin it's way across the Florida Straights and Glades toward SE Fla...

It was a big rain event.. some places down in Dade County got like 21"...

our power went off for about 24 hours and we were flooded but not nearly as bad as others..
I did not get rain in my house but had 7" in my garage and back patio and the street was mid thigh deep..we floaded rubber boats down the street!


I am home today and I've watched the local news for our area and saw Max Mayfield last night and a few others this morning.. they are talking about the invest and possibly a storm but like someone said..they are not really talking wind at all ...just flooding rain...and we are already under flood watches.

Good Morning SE... - I lived in Hollywood during Irene. What a mess. The city has no drainage on a good day. Waist high water, flooded garages, cars stalled out everywhere. Dixie Highway south of Sheridan Street was impassable (?) for days. Lived on the beach in a high rise - 5th floor. The whole building was shaking and a barge broke loose and went up the beach from Hallandale Bch Blvd to just south of Hollywood Blvd destroying the first reef. I'm in Palm Beach County now. ALready having heavy rain squalls - parking lot here at work already flooding!
Quoting saylo2mylilfren:
ST = Stationary not Sub-Tropical


They don't give headings on the Tropical Position page it means Sub Tropical.
Quoting saylo2mylilfren:
i going to start wrapping here soon


Please don't, I hate rap music
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GOES East has been placed into Rapid Scan Mode, which means eight images per hour. Need to use the GHCC site to see them though.

GHCC visible loop
Thanks for the heads up!...and the link
Quoting saylo2mylilfren:
ST = Stationary not Sub-Tropical


aha.. thanks!
2825. nash28
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yep...that's what it looks like at this moment.

We had some much needed rain the past couple days. But we can live without the TS force winds though!!


Yeah.. We don't need a rapidly intensifying system hitting the high octane of the gulf stream taking a western track right through the harbor... No more than TS winds.
Quoting nash28:


Depends of what part of Cuba it crosses. Eastern Cuba it would get torn up. Western tip is flat.
EXACTLY
Quoting afj3:

My point being is that people take systems less seriously if they don't have names. While this is less a factor in the United States, in the Caribbean, a blob can cause mudslides and kill people...Look what happened in Venezuela in December 1999. No name, dozens of thousands dead.


Understood, but the other side of the coin is that if you name this, the worst of the storm will be on the east side and away from land. When the general public hear tropical storm they think winds 40-50 and a lot of rain. This will not be the case with this storm, heavy rain yes, winds not so much. The Bahamas are going to see the worst of this.
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
@2605, sure wish the models would get into agreement.


This is a complicated situation, they may never fully agree. That's why it is most important for most to follow the products available from the NWS until advisories are issued from the NHC, if ever.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


They don't give headings on the Tropical Position page it means Sub Tropical.

Oh now I am confused... well anyway local weatherman here says they are already reporting tropical force winds and gives it an 80% chance of being a tropical storm at this point.
Wow 96L has really put on a show over night.
They have RECON 2 pm flight Link
If I read that correctly.
ST Means stationary not sub tropical. This will be a pure tropical system. Tropical storm Nichole not sub tropical storm Nichole. NC could see the brunt of IMO hurricane Nichole.
2832. Jax82
Water Vapor
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


aha.. thanks!


That is wrong it means Sub-Tropical.


28/1145 UTC 21.0N 82.8W ST1.5 96L -- Atlantic
2834. Patrap
Track is pretty easy to see,,and no unexpected errors are expected.


Prep for a Few Nasty Days,,



12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)




2835. afj3
Quoting Chucktown:


Understood, but the other side of the coin is that if you name this, the worst of the storm will be on the east side and away from land. When the general public hear tropical storm they think winds 40-50 and a lot of rain. This will not be the case with this storm, heavy rain yes, winds not so much. The Bahamas are going to see the worst of this.

I agree with you there.
Quoting mcluvincane:
ST Means stationary not sub tropical. This will be a pure tropical system. Tropical storm Nichole not sub tropical storm Nichole. NC could see the brunt of IMO hurricane Nichole.


look at the header

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
Quoting nash28:


Yeah.. We don't need a rapidly intensifying system hitting the high octane of the gulf stream taking a western track right through the harbor... No more than TS winds.
Nope. I'm on the Isle of Palms & we could definitely live without that.
The east coast has already seen a lot of beach erosion this year due to Earl and Igor passing by.
Quoting mcluvincane:
ST Means stationary not sub tropical. This will be a pure tropical system. Tropical storm Nichole not sub tropical storm Nichole. NC could see the brunt of IMO hurricane Nichole.

ST means subtropical.
From the Dvorak Technique page
(ST is used for Sub-Tropical systems)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


That is wrong it means Sub-Tropical.


28/1145 UTC 21.0N 82.8W ST1.5 96L -- Atlantic


no it means stationary that is the movement they put after the coordinates
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2842. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
Track is pretty easy to see,,and no unexpected errors are expected.


Prep for a Few Nasty Days,,



12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)






No unexpected errors are expected, huh?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-282200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING: INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
FLOOD LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...RAINFALL COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND FLOODING MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING
STRIKES...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

TORNADO: THERE IS A MINIMAL RISK OF A WEAK TORNADO FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF CUBA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PUSH NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS...THOUGH
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS SOME VULNERABILITY.

AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS FOR
MARINERS COULD DETERIORATE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT, BUT SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
2844. Patrap
Parts of S. Carolina has had 7-10 Inches of rain Last 30 Hours so they need to be ready for a flooding event.



Quoting Patrap:
Track is pretty easy to see,,and no unexpected errors are expected.


Prep for a Few Nasty Days,,



12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)





clearly the worst will stay off florida's coast.
Quoting kmanislander:
The two competing low centers can now be seen clearly on the visible loop at 20 / 82 and 19 / 85

Link
.....hmm,didn't some models show this,I believe it was the nam!!!
2847. quante
Quoting cat5hurricane:
The HRWF intensity in regards to 96L has been on the upper tier for a while it seems like.


HWRF always seems on high side on intensity, not sure why.
I don't see much movement from the two blobs at all. If anything I see moisture pushing aganist the front and pushing the dry air back a bit. Line of weak storms off Tampa Bay are moving away from the coast and north of Tampa they seem to be moving toward the coast. The preasure in Ruskin Fl is 1009
96L is still pretty disorganized.

Convection is starting to pop up around the Low south of western Cuba.
Quoting Patrap:
Parts of S. Carolina has had 7-10 Inches of rain Last 30 Hours so they need to be ready for a flooding event.



Yep.
Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE
September 27, 2010 –5:00 p.m.

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH UPGRADED TO FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL PARISHES***

The Meteorological Service has upgraded the Flash Flood Watch to a Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly.Motorist and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely. Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.

A broad area of Low Pressure continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Radar indicates that widespread showers and thunderstorms affected
the island especially sections of southern and northeastern parishes last night into this morning.
The forecast is for showers and thunderstorms to continue through today, tonight and Tuesday. Deteriorating conditions are expected
to persist over the island into Wednesday as this disorganized area
of Low Pressure drifts northward away from Jamaica. There is a chance of this system becoming a Tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
as conditions become favorable for gradual development. As a result
a Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for all parishes.

Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in areas of showers and thunderstorms mainly over inshore and offshore areas of the south
coast.


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress
of this system.


pef
09/28/2010 01:54PM 952 invest_al162010.invest


AL 16 2010092812 BEST 0 202N 828W 30 1001 TD
2853. Keys99
WIll The HH fly over Cuba to try and locate a center? If the Low center is Between The Isle of Youth and Grand Cayman,The Area of lowest preasure will be over land by the time they get their at 18z 2pm Est.
Quoting reedzone:
Clearly a circulation there, I don't think it's Subtropical yet, still fully Tropical to me. Looks like a Tropical Storm. Nicole should be here shortly, maybe 5 p.m. at the latest. Plus I've never seen a Subtropical Storm in the Caribbean before.

Deep convection almost around the center = Fully Tropical to me.


Yes but there is no deep circulation around the center though. Of course you didnt point out the lat long of where you think the center is, which is??
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice sunrise in Naples a short while ago. Love the inverted over-the-horizon cloud shadows. (And please forgive the poor resolution; I shot this with a low-quality cellphone camera while stopped at a red light [Airport & Orange Blossom].)

sunrise


Absolutely gorgeous!! Thank you Neapolitan!
HH will probally not fly over Cuba atleast not without permission
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
09/28/2010 01:54PM 952 invest_al162010.invest


AL 16 2010092812 BEST 0 202N 828W 30 1001 TD


Is there such thing as a sub tropical depression lol
go to new blog
Quoting utilaeastwind:
This is what it was like here when Matthew passed a couple days ago.

This photo was a real crowd pleaser. This is the Chief of Police with his speed boat.

Sorry Fidi.



More photos of Matthew at www.utilaeastwind.com

Glad to hear it was not so bad you can't make fun of it! Look like he got caught by the wind switch..
Quoting Bordonaro:
The NHC named Bonnie, Fiona, Gaston & Hermine as Tropical Storms this year. Bonnie looked awful, meanwhile this 96L has a central pressure of 1002 MB and id producing much more tropical storm force winds and rain than Bonnie did and it's still NOT a TD??


I think the system needs to have all ingredients (coc, winds, pressure, convection, outflow, etc.) for a minimum of 6 hrs to go from A.O.I to TD or TS.
I thought ST was the Supreme Terror factor. Shows what I know.

Conditions in Cayman about the same as reported a few hours ago: Light rain & about 9kts wind.
Quoting Chucktown:


Understood, but the other side of the coin is that if you name this, the worst of the storm will be on the east side and away from land. When the general public hear tropical storm they think winds 40-50 and a lot of rain. This will not be the case with this storm, heavy rain yes, winds not so much. The Bahamas are going to see the worst of this.

Thank you for a calm voice here in Summerville, SC
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