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Huge Temperature Swings to Sock the Northeast Ahead of Early-Week Storm

By: Bob Henson 10:01 PM GMT on February 12, 2016

From frigid, near-record lows this weekend to mild, soggy highs on Tuesday, New York and New England are about to experience one of the most dramatic chill-down-to-warm-up sequences in memory. The brief but sharp cold will extend across the eastern U.S., but the most dramatic temperature swings are expected from Washington, D.C., northward. Some locations from Philadelphia to Portland will rocket from temperatures near or below 0°F on Saturday night--plus much lower wind chills--to readings near or above 50°F by Tuesday.

The weather whiplash is being produced by a highly dynamic pattern that’s pushing cold northerly winds across the region this weekend. As we discussed on Wednesday, this is a deep-layered cold intrusion rather than a shallow, frigid surface air mass. This means that the cold may not set dramatic records at low-elevation towns and cities, but at higher elevations, the chill will be truly exceptional (see below). Because there won’t be a sharp inversion locking in the surface cold air, it will be much easier to scour out than usual. That’s exactly what will happen from Sunday through Tuesday as a strong surface low spins up over the Carolinas and moves northward near the coast, perhaps just inland or just offshore. To the east of the storm, winds will be howling at all levels from the south, pushing in mild maritime air to displace the weekend chill. The orientation of this flow may actually bring milder temperatures to New England than to the mid-Atlantic, accentuating the whiplash effect further north.

The exact track of this storm--impossible to pin down at this point--will dictate how a potpourri of heavy rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow evolves across the region. The ECMWF model has consistently taken the surface low inland toward central New York, whereas the GFS model has trended further east, but with more run-to-run variation.


Figure 1. Surface air temperatures in °F predicted by the 12Z Friday run of the GFS model for 7:00 am ET on Sunday, February 14, 2016. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


Hang on to your hats--and your coats!
As of Friday afternoon, the WU forecasts for major East Coast cities (below) suggest that a few daily record lows might be set on Valentine’s Day (Sunday, Feb. 14). Amazingly, if Boston manages to set a record low on Sunday morning, it will be their first daily record low for the entire month of February in almost 50 years, since -3°F on Feb. 13, 1967 (thanks to Eric Fisher, WBZ, for this tidbit). The potential temperature swings from Sunday to Tuesday are more akin to those felt in dry Western climates!

Predicted low for Sun., Feb. 14, and predicted high for Tues., Feb. 16 (asterisk indicates daily record low)
Portland, ME: -4°F to 43°F (spread of 47°F)
*Boston, MA: -4°F to 50°F (spread of 54°F)
Providence, RI: -6°F to 50°F (spread of 56°F)
Burlington, VT: -4°F, 37°F (spread of 41°F)
*Albany, NY: -11°F to 39°F (spread of 50°F)
Buffalo, NY: -8°F to 36°F (spread of 44°F)
*New York, NY (Central Park): 0°F to 50°F (spread of 50°F)
*Philadelphia, PA: 0°F to 47°F (spread of 47°F)
Washington, DC (National): 10°F to 47°F (spread of 37°F)



Figure 2. As shown by this Wundermap, temperatures at the 850-mb level (about a mile above ground) projected by the 12Z Friday run of the GFS model for Saturday night (top) will drop below -30°F in places. This will be close to the lowest ever observed by radiosonde across parts of the Northeast. The yellow region over the Adirondacks corresponds to predicted values colder than -29°F about a mile above sea level at 10:00 pm EST Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016. Less than three days later (bottom), at 7:00 pm EST Tuesday, Feb. 16, readings at this altitude may soar above 46°F over southern New England.


Radiosondes may provide our most impressive benchmark of this weekend’s cold event. In the soundings to be launched at 0Z Sunday (7:00 pm Saturday), the temperatures at 850 mb (about a mile above sea level) may challenge February record lows at New York and Boston, in data going back to 1948. Buffalo has a shot at its monthly 850-mb record low on Saturday morning, and on Saturday night, Albany could break its all-time coldest radiosonde-measured 850-mb temperature (current record -31.8°C, interpolated from data on Feb. 8, 1963; thanks to Patrick Marsh, NOAA Storm Prediction Center).

Weather pick of the weekend: Mt. Washington, New Hampshire
There aren’t many weather stations at high altitude over the Northeast, but those that exist will get a wintry hammering this weekend. The most venerable of these is atop Mount Washington, NH (elevation 6289 feet), where the Mount Washington Observatory was established in 1932. The MWO’s Friday afternoon forecast for higher summits in the region is a jaw-dropper: “Temperatures will fall steadily into Saturday night where they will bottom out in the mid 30’s below zero....The coldest air and the highest winds will likely occur at the same time so wind chills late Saturday into Saturday night will be approaching 90 below zero. These are extremely dangerous conditions to be exposed to for any length of time.” Winds are expected to gust as high as 95 mph.

The MWO station dipped to -35°F three times in February 2015. The last time a colder temperature was recorded was -37°F on February 6 and March 6 of 2007, according to Mike Carmon, co-director of summit operations. The most recent temperature below -40°F was -45°F on January 14 and 15, 2004. “We do not keep records of wind chills at the summit, being that they are constantly-fluctuating and calculated values,” Carmon told me in an email. “Off the top of my head, though, I can say the last time we hit wind chills approaching -90F was almost exactly one year ago during the President’s Day polar outbreak of 2015.”

The coldest temperature ever observed at the summit actually predates MWO. A U.S. Signal Service station that operated sporadically from the 1870s to 1890s reported a low of -50°F on Jan. 22, 1885, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center. This reading is not yet reflected in NOAA’s digital data files but exists in NOAA archives.


Figure 3. The Mount Washington Observatory, encased in rime ice on April 7, 2004. Image credit: Talinus/Wikimedia Commons.

Other all-time records at higher-altitude stations across the Northeast also date back many decades. They include:

Pinkham Notch, NH (2010 ft): -32°F on 2/16/1943
Mt Mansfield, VT (3950 ft): -39°F on 1/9/1968 & 1/15/1965 & 1/15/1957
Lake Placid, NY (1940 ft): -39°F on 12/30/1917
Whiteface Mtn., NY (4865 ft): -36°F on 1/25/1945 (period of record is 9/1937-8/1946)
North Lake, NY (1831 ft): -47°F on 2/9/1934 (period of record is 9/1896-5/1948)
Slide Mtn., NY (2650 ft): -23°F on 1/18/1982 (period of record is 12/1961-10/2012)
(Thanks to Jessica Spacio at the Northeast Regional Climate Center for these data.)

Meteorologist Anton Seimon (Appalachian State University/University of Maine) got a taste of high-altitude Northeast cold on a ski trip in mid-January 1994 to Lake Colden, NY (elevation 2762 feet). “On that Saturday night [Jan. 22], our mercury thermometer spent several hours parked at -45°F (-42.7°C) while winds in the strongly channeled lake corridor gusted to about 25 knots with blowing snow.” Seimon said in an email. “We did measure even colder temperatures in the central Adirondacks on other excursions during that winter, but those were under calm, radiative cooling conditions. In terms of pure cold and wind chill, the 1994 Lake Colden night remains the superlative event in my recollection.”

We’ll be back with another post by Tuesday morning at the latest. Have a great President’s Day weekend, and stay warm!

Bob Henson

Extreme Weather Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the cold weather update
7 am Saturday morning stay home in bed wind chill temperature

It will be nice a toasty here..... thanks for the updates...
Quoting 3. PedleyCA:

It will be nice a toasty here..... thanks for the updates...
it will be nice and toasty inside for the next 3 days
Link
From qCaptain. U.S. Coast Guard: Anthem of the Seas Azipod Damaged in Storm

"One of two diesel-electric azipod units used to propel Royal Caribbean’s Anthem of the Seas sustained damage as the ship battled an intense hurricane-force storm off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Sunday.

... While damage from the storm has been reported to be mostly cosmetic, the Coast Guard said Friday that the cruise ship’s port azipod unit, which is one component of the vessel’s propulsion system, burned out all four clutches and as a precaution had to be shut down for ship’s the return voyage to Bayonne.

Technicians aboard the cruise ship are replacing the clutches on both the starboard and port azipods as a precaution. Repairs and subsequent testing of the azipods are still ongoing."
Thanks Mr. Henson!
Quoting 4. washingtonian115:

lol

Flip flop till it drop.
Thanks for the update on our now usual crazed weather. Imagine if you were the observer back in the days before they built the new observatory. The original station was in the Mt. Washington toll road and cog railroad office pictured here. The observer and his assistant were the only persons that spent the entire winter and most of the spring on top of the mountain. The railroad brought in fresh supplies every 30 days, assuming the track could be cleared on schedule. I'll have to look it up again, but one of the observers in the late 30's was also a ham radio operator. As you might imagine, the location on the top of the mountain gave him some good DX contacts...when he could keep the antenna up. If I remember the story right, he went through four destroyed antennas in two years.

The entire building was chained down to prevent the wind from overturning the structure. As you can see in the second picture, the chain and anchor were no joke. Imagine you were the observer when that wind was howling at 231 mph on that April day in 1934. I'd sure be praying those chains held. :-)



GFS also showing an ice storm over a span of hours.
Global Hawk and Gulfstream IV out on El Nino Recon


The 5 day forecast for Cyclone Winston amuses me.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/sp20161 1_5day.gif

How do I post images on this site without the site force changing my image later?
(From previous blog...)
Quoting 295. LargoFl:

I heard on Rush Limbaugh show today..how he Blasted this sea level rise, saying the earth itself is in drought..land mass wise and its soaking up all the water it can, filling lakes and underground aquifers etc..and he says NO sea level rise worth anything is happening..im not going to get into what he called You folks claiming there IS...perhaps you all should go listen to his Today's talk show and see what I mean..i was amazed and yeah I guess shocked a little too.

Quoting 306. sar2401:

Did he happen to mention any scientific studies that supported his view? I'd be shocked a little if he did, because there aren't any. You know the difference between one guy's opinion and actual science, right?


Please get it right, people, if you're going to quote public figures. Rush was talking about the article below, which is based on a study by NASA (you all know and automatically trust them... right?). It was his opinion about the article, which you can read for yourself.

Link

Miami (AFP) - As glaciers melt due to climate change, the increasingly hot and parched Earth is absorbing some of that water inland, slowing sea level rise, NASA experts said Thursday.

Satellite measurements over the past decade show for the first time that the Earth's continents have soaked up and stored an extra 3.2 trillion tons of water in soils, lakes and underground aquifers, the experts said in a study in the journal Science.

This has temporarily slowed the rate of sea level rise by about 20 percent, it said.

"We always assumed that people's increased reliance on groundwater for irrigation and consumption was resulting in a net transfer of water from the land to the ocean," said lead author J.T. Reager of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory....

Jo
Quoting 6. snow2fire:

Link
From qCaptain. U.S. Coast Guard: Anthem of the Seas Azipod Damaged in Storm

"One of two diesel-electric azipod units used to propel Royal Caribbean’s Anthem of the Seas sustained damage as the ship battled an intense hurricane-force storm off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Sunday.

... While damage from the storm has been reported to be mostly cosmetic, the Coast Guard said Friday that the cruise ship’s port azipod unit, which is one component of the vessel’s propulsion system, burned out all four clutches and as a precaution had to be shut down for ship’s the return voyage to Bayonne.

Technicians aboard the cruise ship are replacing the clutches on both the starboard and port azipods as a precaution. Repairs and subsequent testing of the azipods are still ongoing."

I'm not surprised. The azipod is also the rudder, and the pounding the unit took in the high waves while the computer tried to maintain headway and heading into the wind probably caused the bearings in the clutch units to overheat. The same pounding might have caused the shaft of a traditional shaft and propeller system to bend or break also. The difference is that the azipod can be repaired while the ship is still in the water compared to at least a week in drydock for the conventional propulsion system.
Quoting 12. AldreteMichael:

The 5 day forecast for Cyclone Winston amuses me.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/sp20161 1_5day.gif

How do I post images on this site without the site force changing my image later?
As long as you do a direct link to an image here, it will continue to update as time passes. You'd need to save the image to a place like Tumblr and then link to that image, which would be static.
Winds out of the NW at 10-20 mph during this arctic blast of air towards the evening Saturday, yipee.

Quoting 4. washingtonian115:

lol



And as you can see, the high temperature will be in the low 60's for us literally below that snowline. Though most of SE NC will be too mild for any of that realistically.

AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
17. vis0

Quoting 12. AldreteMichael:

The 5 day forecast for Cyclone Winston amuses me.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/sp20161 1_5day.gif

How do I post images on this site without the site force changing my image later?
1) One has to download / copy the image or sequence of images you want to present.

2)  Join an image hosting site (there are many that are free or low cost, some even allow to upload to their servers anonymously) Go view recent Dr. Masters blogs  and copy the image URLs / links (COPY IMAGE LOCATION) that show weather related imagery posted by WxU members and read whom the host is, as  www.HOST NAME HERE. rest of image url here.
Make sure the image host support whatever image extension you are copying as in "gif" that are animated. i use postimage though there is 1000kb limit to animated GIFs, other sites include USE.com, imgbox.com

3) Once you upload the image(s) (gif) the host site will present you with different types of links. Some allow hotlinking, meaning you can post the DIRECT link here to directly present the image (select there if you prefer original size) or any site to DIRECTLY present your image.  Others allow a thumbnail here which links to the original site though usually with Ads attached.
WxU i think prefers direct linking - hotlinking as you never know what types of ADs might pop up THERE.

what AldreteMichael left, no its not as difficult as i made it sound, quick sar2401 you explains things much better , explain.
Where's a good source for long-term model sets? I use the Wundermap sometimes, but it's really slow and I just want an "at a glance" shot at what the models are saying for the next two weeks (like if pattern breaks are on tap, etc).
19. vis0
Quoting 18. JazzChi:

Where's a good source for long-term model sets? I use the Wundermap sometimes, but it's really slow and I just want an "at a glance" shot at what the models are saying for the next two weeks (like if pattern breaks are on tap, etc).
You can try to decipher my fav links to the right of my blogs contents (DO NOT READ MY CONTENT, it'll turn one into salt) just the links though some might be down as very old links. Here the zilly blog.
or go here (yes, Dacula) and see if their MODEL drop down menu has the MODEL run you're searching for. (REMEMBER some of these pages are created for different browsers so scroll horizontally to see if MODELS are of center.
Which i could remember my account for a storage site as had 3, 100 to 300 link HTML pgs there, oh well.

IF AT ANY TIME THE LINKS LEAD TO WHAT APPEAR AS SEARCH ADS CLOSE THOSE PAGES that means the site closed and some company wants to use the fact that the site was popular when it had real content and now wants to fill ya up with cookies that redirects searches to their sites.
Quoting 18. JazzChi:

Where's a good source for long-term model sets? I use the Wundermap sometimes, but it's really slow and I just want an "at a glance" shot at what the models are saying for the next two weeks (like if pattern breaks are on tap, etc).
www.tropicaltidbits.com. By far the best site for looking at and comparing models...and it's free!
Wow that is a lot of freezing rain.

Quoting 17. vis0:


1) One has to download / copy the image or sequence of images you want to present.

2) Join an image hosting site (there are many that are free or low cost, some even allow to upload to their servers anonymously) Go view recent Dr. Masters blogs and copy the image URLs / links (COPY IMAGE LOCATION) that show weather related imagery posted by WxU members and read whom the host is, as www.HOST NAME HERE. rest of image url here.
Make sure the image host support whatever image extension you are copying as in "gif" that are animated. i use postimage though there is 1000kb limit to animated GIFs, other sites include USE.com, imgbox.com

3) Once you upload the image(s) (gif) the host site will present you with different types of links. Some allow hotlinking, meaning you can post the DIRECT link here to directly present the image (select there if you prefer original size) or any site to DIRECTLY present your image. Others allow a thumbnail here which links to the original site though usually with Ads attached.
WxU i think prefers direct linking - hotlinking as you never know what types of ADs might pop up THERE.

what AldreteMichael left, no its not as difficult as i made it sound, quick sar2401 you explains things much better , explain.

Already did, in post #15. Just copy and paste the original to a hosting site like Flickr or Tumblr and then link to the image at the hosting site. It's the direct link to WU and other sites where the original content resides that causes the image to constantly update.
These conditions are not to be trifled with.  On this same weekend last year, a young woman who was an experienced and well-equipped hiker died on Mt Adams, the peak next to Mt Washington.  She was blown off the trail and died of exposure.  A crew of rescuers risked their lives in ridiculously bad conditions, but only found her frozen corpse the next day.
Quoting 14. sar2401:

I'm not surprised. The azipod is also the rudder, and the pounding the unit took in the high waves while the computer tried to maintain headway and heading into the wind probably caused the bearings in the clutch units to overheat. The same pounding might have caused the shaft of a traditional shaft and propeller system to bend or break also. The difference is that the azipod can be repaired while the ship is still in the water compared to at least a week in drydock for the conventional propulsion system.


The ship was certainly put to a test in that storm. It's interesting that there are news reports stating that the CG is "seaworthy" and ready to go. It's certainly not at risk of sinking, but I think the CG wants the propulsion to be working properly before it will sign off on a self-powered vessel leaving port with 6,000 people on board.

I was trying to get some info on the stabilizers (which should be horizontal fins with variable angle of attack). Im assuming that they need flow to work. A lot of passengers were saying that stability was off (i.e. ship tilting) after the storm. Maybe the 6 knots plus asymmetric power made things a little funky. Thank goodness it wasn't worse than it was: in every way.
Quoting 23. science101:

These conditions are not to be trifled with.  On this same weekend last year, a young woman who was an experienced and well-equipped hiker died on Mt Adams, the peak next to Mt Washington.  She was blown off the trail and died of exposure.  A crew of rescuers risked their lives in ridiculously bad conditions, but only found her frozen corpse the next day.



This seems to happen all too often up here. "Winter hikers"? or some such designation die in the harsh conditions and others are rescued and it is a story in the local news. The context of the news story is often whether or not we should make the foolish hikers pay for the rescue themselves.

Special Statement
Issued: 1:56 PM EST Feb. 12, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Extremely dangerous wind chills expected in the mountains...

Anyone considering climbing or hiking in the White Mountains of
Maine or New Hampshire this weekend should consider cancelling or
postponing their trip. Extremely dangerous wind chill temperatures
will affect the region... especially above tree line. The
combination of the cold and wind will create life-threatening
conditions for anyone caught outside and unable to reach safety.

Wind chill temperatures Saturday will range from about -30 in the
lower elevations to about -60 in exposed areas near the peaks.
Wind chill values Saturday night will drop to -40 in the lower
elevations to near -70 near the peaks. Wind chill temperatures
will climb only to the -20 to -50 by Sunday evening.

A wind chill temperature of -35 can freeze exposed skin in 10
minutes. Wind chill temperatures below -50 can freeze exposed skin
in less than 5 minutes.

Be safe... don't take chances.


Jensenius
National Weather Service
Gray... Maine

Yikes! This should beat the 10-15 cms local mets are calling for.
Considering the 10f temp the water/snow ratio will be way over 10, more like 30.
Quoting 28. Patrap:

Mount Washington Observatory | Current Summit Conditions




dran you got your named back oh well it was nic being king TAZ on here for a day
Thanx Taz, but your the Man,... I'm just your wingman.

You were my first friend here on wunderground.

And I am a better Man for knowing you.

It maybe very cold over the next few days but this UN report is just the opposite.Link
Quoting 31. Patrap:

Thanx Taz, but your the Man,... I'm just your wingman.

You were my first friend here on wunderground.

And I am a better Man for knowing you.




welcome got me a new 15.6" 6th gen core i7 today staples had a good sale
It was a beautiful day today with a high of 73. A few clouds but nothing major. On last cold tomorrow before we really warm up.
Current conditions at
Rhinelander, Rhinelander-Oneida County Airport (KRHI)
Lat: 45.63°NLon: -89.4°WElev: 1624ft.

Fair

-5°F

-21°C
Humidity 64%
Wind Speed W 12 mph
Barometer 30.32 in (1031.4 mb)
Dewpoint -14°F (-26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill -24°F (-31°C)
Last update 12 Feb 8:53 pm CST
What's your Temp over there Keeper?
Quoting 37. PedleyCA:

What's your Temp over there Keeper?


as the pws flies 9.1f chill -7.8f

coldest point should be right around as the sunrises
Quoting 38. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



as the pws flies 9.1f chill -7.8f

coldest point should be right around as the sunrises


Bit warmer here, was 84.4F here at my place, and 88 at the Airport, and 86 at the Indian Hills PWS just north of me.
WTH
Quoting 13. flibinite:

(From previous blog...)...Rush was talking about the article below, which is based on a study by NASA (you all know and automatically trust them... right?). It was his opinion about the article, which you can read for yourself...


Rush Limbaugh has the scientific comprehension of a potato, which he has demonstrated many times over (especially when it comes to climate science). But this isn't his opinion about the science. It's his opinion about someone else interpretation of the science (and their interpretation leaves a lot to be desired). He then one ups that person's rather inept interpretation, adds in the usual Limbaugh hyperbole/stupidity, and cranks it up to 11.

What Limbaugh comes up with vs. what the research actually says is (to no one's surprise) quite different.

In general, scientific reporting isn't very good. Adding a useless idiot's heavily biased interpretation on top of that certainly doesn't make things any better. Go to the source. Read the actual research.
Well I would have been in sunny palm springs, but a midlife crisis fueled momxiety attack kept us from making our flight. But on the bright side, I would have missed out on our season high 2.2" of rain today. Wet n wonderful in washington state, high of 50°, native currents already blooming in Bellingham.
Quoting 23. science101:

These conditions are not to be trifled with.  On this same weekend last year, a young woman who was an experienced and well-equipped hiker died on Mt Adams, the peak next to Mt Washington.  She was blown off the trail and died of exposure.  A crew of rescuers risked their lives in ridiculously bad conditions, but only found her frozen corpse the next day.



I've climbed the mountains in that region many times, including Mt. Washington. There are several areas where the trails get narrow and the drop offs are steep. Even on nice days a sudden strong gust can catch someone unaware, especially if it blows a thick cloud over the trail.

But climbing there in the dead of winter with short sub-zero days and everything is covered by snow and/or ice? No thanks. :P
Quoting 45. Xyrus2000:



Rush Limbaugh has the scientific comprehension of a potato, which he has demonstrated many times over (especially when it comes to climate science). But this isn't his opinion about the science. It's his opinion about someone else interpretation of the science (and their interpretation leaves a lot to be desired).

Perhaps you might be willing to explain how the science in the article was messed up sometime, then, as it seemed pretty straightforward to me. And please note I said nothing about the validity of Rush's comments, only that he was making them about a written article, not making the NASA facts up, as the first poster seemed to be indicate.

I'd also wonder just how low the ocean levels were during the last great Ice Age, and thus how "big" all the continents were then. I've never been able to find a good "map" of back during that time. It seems at least semi-logical to assume the U.S., say, had much "wider" coastlines back then, what with a big chunk of Canada and the Northeastern U.S. covered with up to a mile high with glacial ice (enough frozen water/weight that the Earth's crust is still purportedly rebounding from it in those areas).

Jo
Hello everyone. Thanks for the update, Mr Henson.
Our European weather is not so cold this weekend, but stormy weather has returned once again on the Atlantic side, as in Bretagne (Northwest. Fr.).
Nice wrapping low, today, over this area :

Pressure is near 973 hPa in Guernesey now. Models performed quite well. Top wind gusts initially predicted around 140 km/h, and those were reached in several coastal stations this morning (max. wind gust recorded at Pointe du Raz, Bretagne this morning is 144 kmh, almost 90mph). Winds should start to abate on the coasts from now on. Strong wind reported, uprooted trees, people without power (edit : a peak at around 20 000, actually), but nothing too unusual/consequential. Nice traditional winter storm in other words, though European temps have been way higher than is the norm during the first week of Feb (and the rest of winter too, in W. Europe). It seems my own thermometer's been stuck around 10 C/ 50 F most of the time this winter (it should have been around 3-5 degrees C lower).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078> 081-176>179-
141300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
435 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL TO ZERO
TO 3 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN AND AROUND THE NEW YORK CITY AND NEW
JERSEY METRO...AND LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT. TEMPS
WILL FALL TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH LIFE THREATENING LEVELS AS COLD AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH
WIND CHILLS LIKELY NOT RISING ABOVE ZERO UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

* COLD SPELLS OF THIS MAGNITUDE BRING A RISK OF FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO DOES NOT TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. IN
ADDITION...FROZEN PIPES AND OVERWORKED FURNACES COULD LEAVE YOUR
HOUSE WITHOUT HEAT OR RUNNING WATER...AND CAR BATTERIES RUN THE
RISK OF DYING.

* NEVER VENTURE OUTDOORS WITHOUT WEARING GLOVES...A HAT AND
SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING. WIND CHILL VALUES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE IN LESS THAN
30 MINUTES IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

* RUN WATER AT A TRICKLE AND KEEP CABINET DOORS OPEN TO PREVENT
PIPES FROM FREEZING.

* NEVER USE A STOVE OR OVEN TO HEAT YOUR HOME OR USE AN OPEN FLAME
TO MELT FROZEN PIPES. MANY HOUSE FIRES RESULT FROM THESE
PRACTICES.

* CHECK TIRE PRESSURE AND YOUR CAR BATTERY. BE SURE YOUR CAR HAS
A WINTER SAFETY KIT THAT INCLUDES A BLANKET...WARM CLOTHES AND
GLOVES IN CASE YOUR CAR BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES STRANDED.

* TAKE EXTRA STEPS TO KEEP YOUR PETS WARM AND KNOW THEIR LIMITS TO
COLD.


$$

56f,,,e.cen.fl
Take this warning seriously folks in new England area.............................................. ...
CNN)—An Arctic surge will bring bitter cold air to the Northeast this weekend, with record low temperatures expected.

More than a dozen states are under wind chill advisories or warnings, according to CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen. The wind chill in parts of New England is expected to be 40 F to 50 F below zero, he said.
Speaking of temperature differences, this morning here in Bonita Springs, FL the temp was 50 and up in Tampa it was 60. That doesn't happen very often.
Quoting 53. invinoveritas:

Speaking of temperature differences, this morning here in Bonita Springs, FL the temp was 50 and up in Tampa it was 60. That doesn't happen very often.


We'll Mesonet says 51 degrees for a low in Fort Myers.
A low of 54 at RSW Airport which is close to my location.
Quoting 23. science101:

These conditions are not to be trifled with.  On this same weekend last year, a young woman who was an experienced and well-equipped hiker died on Mt Adams, the peak next to Mt Washington.  She was blown off the trail and died of exposure.  A crew of rescuers risked their lives in ridiculously bad conditions, but only found her frozen corpse the next day.

In the summer walking up Mt. Adams is no more than a challenging day hike (depending on what trails you take), even with my two young sons, we started before dawn and made it back in the evening just after sunset. It was a perfect summer day, but still quite windy at the summit. I recall there were a couple of narrow ridges on the trail we took, a mis-step or slip there could have resulted in a bad fall.
Hello and Good Morning, here in Northern Michigan we had the coldest temperature of the winter so far - -28 F in my backyard pws and it is -23f at the Grayling Army Airfield. A pws ne of us wuz -30f
Quoting 48. flibinite:


Perhaps you might be willing to explain how the science in the article was messed up sometime, then, as it seemed pretty straightforward to me. And please note I said nothing about the validity of Rush's comments, only that he was making them about a written article, not making the NASA facts up, as the first poster seemed to be indicate.

I'd also wonder just how low the ocean levels were during the last great Ice Age, and thus how "big" all the continents were then. I've never been able to find a good "map" of back during that time. It seems at least semi-logical to assume the U.S., say, had much "wider" coastlines back then, what with a big chunk of Canada and the Northeastern U.S. covered with up to a mile high with glacial ice (enough frozen water/weight that the Earth's crust is still purportedly rebounding from it in those areas).

Jo


Just look at the difference between what Rush says and what the paper says.

Rush: "NO sea level rise worth anything is happening" (your words)

Paper that Rush is purporting to discuss: "This has temporarily slowed the rate of sea level rise by about 20 percent"

If I told you that zombies were outside your home, waiting to kill you, but that they were temporarily moving 20% slower than typical, would you say "oh then there's nothing to worry about" or would you still be worried about the zombies outside your home?
I experienced my own huge temperature swing over the past few days. Took a quick road trip from here in Naples to far northern New York state; left here late Tuesday afternoon, reached the destination Thursday afternoon (after a stop in Washington), and got back last evening. Had to deal with some really heavy lake effect snows on I-81 north of Syracuse (video here), and temps were in the low single digits, though the wind chill made it feel a lot worse. Had to run the heater on full all the way back south, especially when driving through more snow on I-95 south of Fayetteville, NC. But between there and Jacksonville, FL--not too many miles or hours apart--the temperature climbed by nearly 50 degrees (upper 20s to upper 70s); off went the heater, and on came the AC.

It helped me remember why I moved away from that mess. You gotta love Florida...
Been snowing here for a while. No snow in the forecast, and of course it is a very fine snow as it is cold, but it is pretty. Finally getting some actual winter weather, though it isn't predicted to last long. Good weekend to snuggle with one's valentine by the fire :)
60. wpb
Quoting 11. nrtiwlnvragn:

Global Hawk and Gulfstream IV out on El Nino Recon



can u update there track throughout the mission
SoCal back in high pressure heating mode again:

Death Valley 64/38F
Orange County 84/57F
Anyone have a map of the GFS forecasted snowfall? Where do you find that map at? Looks like I may be very close to the snow/rain cutoff here in Mauldin. The one thing I don't understand about the current forecast is that they are saying 25-29 degrees and they are calling for freezing rain at those temps. I thought it would snow under 30 degrees? The only thing I can think of is that maybe the middle layer of the atmosphere will be rain and then it refreezes at the surface. Yesterday when we had that brief snow in Greenville, it was 35 degrees and it came down as all snow?

Quoting 58. Neapolitan:

I experienced my own huge temperature swing over the past few days. Took a quick road trip from here in Naples to far northern New York state; left here late Tuesday afternoon, reached the destination Thursday afternoon (after a stop in Washington), and got back last evening. Had to deal with some really heavy lake effect snows on I-81 north of Syracuse (video here), and temps were in the low single digits, though the wind chill made it feel a lot worse. Had to run the heater on full all the way back south, especially when driving through more snow on I-95 south of Fayetteville, NC. But between there and Jacksonville, FL--not too many miles or hours apart--the temperature climbed by nearly 50 degrees (upper 20s to upper 70s); off went the heater, and on came the AC.

It helped me remember why I moved away from that mess. You gotta love Florida...


That's about ten degrees per hour between Fayettenam and Jax.

I've flown from Atlanta when it was around the freezing mark to Cancun where it was about 80. But the one time I'll remember was flying from Denver to Greensboro one summer. Temperatures were about the same, but getting off that plane felt like stepping into a hot shower. Went from 20% humidity to 80%.
Quoting 57. MaineGuy:



Just look at the difference between what Rush says and what the paper says.

Rush: "NO sea level rise worth anything is happening" (your words)

Paper that Rush is purporting to discuss: "This has temporarily slowed the rate of sea level rise by about 20 percent"

If I told you that zombies were outside your home, waiting to kill you, but that they were temporarily moving 20% slower than typical, would you say "oh then there's nothing to worry about" or would you still be worried about the zombies outside your home?
Good points, and very likely that this 20% reduction will not be sustained. For starters, here is the map from the recent paper under discussion,

First note that the gravimetric measurement method used in the paper cannot distinguish between increased groundwater recharge in coastal regions as opposed to saline intrusion, which in fact could show up as a slight increase. But most importantly, the soil and underlying bedrock cannot act like an infinite sponge. In regions favored by increased precipitation, a limit will be reached where the water percolates down to an impermeable layer, and excess increase in the water-table level will result in increased run-off to the ocean. The sealed aquifers below cannot be recharged by increased precipitation. Also, an unfortunate aspect of this latest research is that many arid regions are actually storing less water over time. Many of these regions rely on fossil water resources pumped out of sealed aquifers. So although this latest research offers some short-term moderate good news, it is most likely a temporary phenomena with a decreasing effect over decadal timescales, not the panacea for our problems as the AGW-deniers would have us believe.
References:
1)ESTIMATION OF NATURAL GROUND WATER RECHARGE
2)A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based
on groundwater-age data
(pdf, 2011)
3)Aquifer Recharge (pdf, 2005)
4)GROUND WATER ATLAS OF THE UNITED STATES(pdf)
5)USGS List of U.S.Principle Aquifers

Woke up to about a dusting this morning.It sounds like a on going tropical storm outside
You just can't make this stuff up -

If this Iraqi dam collapses, half a million people could die

The collapse of Mosul Dam would be catastrophic for Iraq.

The dam has been called the most dangerous in the world for the past decade. But recent assessments by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers say it is at “significantly higher risk” of failing than previously thought.

The dam’s structural problems became evident as soon as the reservoir behind it was filled in 1985. It is built on layers of clay and gypsum, a soft mineral that dissolves when it comes into contact with water, and the dam immediately began seeping.


Link
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

Woke up to about a dusting this morning.It sounds like a on going tropical storm outside
Same.
The Monday-Tuesday storm now is looking like a Snow to Freezing Rain/Sleet to Rain combo.
Quoting 45. Xyrus2000:



Rush Limbaugh has the scientific comprehension of a potato, which he has demonstrated many times over (especially when it comes to climate science). But this isn't his opinion about the science. It's his opinion about someone else interpretation of the science (and their interpretation leaves a lot to be desired). He then one ups that person's rather inept interpretation, adds in the usual Limbaugh hyperbole/stupidity, and cranks it up to 11.

What Limbaugh comes up with vs. what the research actually says is (to no one's surprise) quite different.

In general, scientific reporting isn't very good. Adding a useless idiot's heavily biased interpretation on top of that certainly doesn't make things any better. Go to the source. Read the actual research.


The guy's a paid pimp. It is silly to take anything he says seriously, regardless of whether particular statements he may offer are true: All facts are construed to support the right wing corporate agenda.
Quoting 58. Neapolitan:

I experienced my own huge temperature swing over the past few days. Took a quick road trip from here in Naples to far northern New York state; left here late Tuesday afternoon, reached the destination Thursday afternoon (after a stop in Washington), and got back last evening. Had to deal with some really heavy lake effect snows on I-81 north of Syracuse (video here), and temps were in the low single digits, though the wind chill made it feel a lot worse. Had to run the heater on full all the way back south, especially when driving through more snow on I-95 south of Fayetteville, NC. But between there and Jacksonville, FL--not too many miles or hours apart--the temperature climbed by nearly 50 degrees (upper 20s to upper 70s); off went the heater, and on came the AC.

It helped me remember why I moved away from that mess. You gotta love Florida...


Yep love Florida alright ....

um... driving way too fast and way too close to vehicle in front of you.

Used to live there and drive through that crap and worse.

Better to hide out in Florida and enjoy all the fresh citrus that is coming on just now!
Quoting 63. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Anyone have a map of the GFS forecasted snowfall? Where do you find that map at? Looks like I may be very close to the snow/rain cutoff here in Mauldin. The one thing I don't understand about the current forecast is that they are saying 25-29 degrees and they are calling for freezing rain at those temps. I thought it would snow under 30 degrees? The only thing I can think of is that maybe the middle layer of the atmosphere will be rain and then it refreezes at the surface. Yesterday when we had that brief snow in Greenville, it was 35 degrees and it came down as all snow?



I use Levi Cowan's tropicaltidbits.com
Go to "Forecast Models" at the top. Then under "Global" select GFS. Then from the "Precip/Moisture" pulldown at bottom, there's a Total Snowfall. You can scroll through in 6 hr. increments. Similar graphs for GEFS under "Ensembles".
Very nice site, much higher signal/noise ratio than comment fields here, and no need to put trolls on "Ignore" :)
The temperatures are dropping here already as it was 23 degrees F about an hour ago and down to 21 now as a few flurries move through. I wonder how low it gets tonight. I doubt it will be anywhere close to top five all-time coldest as those are in the negative thirties F. Does anyone where a good page is for looking at historical records for specific locations in a nice format? I forgot where there was one where i could see every record low and high for each day and the date it occurred on one page.
NY Harbor is in quite a chop atm:

Link
Quoting 60. wpb:

can u update there track throughout the mission


They completed their missions, you can check here, click and drag to move map, click on plane icons.
Reading 40 degrees on the button just before noon, wouldn't shock me if that were the high, humidity has really gone down and might make it to the teens tonight thanks to the high. Not a cloud in the sky, looks deceptive. Dew point will start to climb Sunday evening as moisture starts to make its way through here.

About 200 miles away from me on Monday, highs won't break freezing and forecast of a couple inches of snow/mix. Here, rain and pushing the 60 mark.

Looks to be mild after the low moves through, could see clear skies through Sunday with mid-60's that weekend.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

Holy crabapples, 2.8" storm total here in Acme, wa. .4" fell between 10:30-11:30am yesterday. Our neiborhood waterfall is really booming. 41° down in the valley, Mt. Baker reporting 14" of new snow @ 4000' good thing it cooled down or we would have flood warnings instead of winter storm warnings in the Cascades.

For those of you in the cold half of the country, remember to keep a faucet dripping. Had our pipes freeze up durring the day our fist winter out here…and thus began my homeschool plumbing apprenticeship.
OT:

App shakes up earthquake science by turning users into sensors

Link
current temps as of noon

Temperature:

-8.1°F

Dewpoint:

-19.3°F

Humidity:

58%

Wind:

NNW 7 mph

Wind Chill:

-23

High Pressure continues to dominate the SoCal area.
Good Morning Class! From Americas Left Coast it's been bone dry for 2 weeks and only a chance for a MINUTE AMOUNT in a storm next Thursday a possibility. Still have about 2 months to rectify the situation in Soo Cal and Nor Cal forecast is for some storms the next 2 weeks to add more water to storage lakes, who thanks to a wet January have risen substantially. If Soo Cal doesn't get rain let's hope Nor Cal continues to get it to fill the lakes. El Nino?......What stinking El Nino? Hope all have a fine weekend! Highs in 80's and Lows in 40's at my locale........pass the sunblock please!

Still have nice snow in local mountains........Maybe a nice day to snowboard?
Huge earthquake in Oklahoma (for Oklahoma it's huge ofc).

M5.1 - 28km NW of Fairview, Oklahoma -- depth 2.0 km

2016-02-13 17:07:06 (UTC)
2016-02-13 12:07:06 (UTC-05:00)

Nearby Cities
28km (17mi) NW of Fairview, Oklahoma
63km (39mi) E of Woodward, Oklahoma
72km (45mi) W of Enid, Oklahoma
104km (65mi) N of Weatherford, Oklahoma
153km (95mi) NW of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Totally off topic question for the Florida contingent on the blog
.
I have a meeting in Coral Gables next week and fly into Fort Lauderdale around 4pm the day before. Does anyone have a recommendation on where to grab dinner where I can see the ocean, get a great piece of fish and sit at the bar (on my own and by yourself at a table is not ideal). I don’t mind doing some driving but would like to avoid sitting in traffic jams.

Any ideas would be appreciated.

On a weather note it is forecast to only be 7 degrees warmer in Miami then it is in Denver when I am there. That is not supposed to be the case in February.
Quoting 87. Articuno:




5.1! I still wonder if FRACKING is an issue .
Quoting 58. Neapolitan:

I experienced my own huge temperature swing over the past few days. Took a quick road trip from here in Naples to far northern New York state; left here late Tuesday afternoon, reached the destination Thursday afternoon (after a stop in Washington), and got back last evening. Had to deal with some really heavy lake effect snows on I-81 north of Syracuse (video here), and temps were in the low single digits, though the wind chill made it feel a lot worse. Had to run the heater on full all the way back south, especially when driving through more snow on I-95 south of Fayetteville, NC. But between there and Jacksonville, FL--not too many miles or hours apart--the temperature climbed by nearly 50 degrees (upper 20s to upper 70s); off went the heater, and on came the AC.

It helped me remember why I moved away from that mess. You gotta love Florida...


Yeah just yesterday around 5 PM, I was out in my back porch reading a book wearing shorts, flip flops and a tank, the temp was 72, and it was really nice. Today it's in the 50's behind the reinforcing front, but still really nice given the full sun. I definitely will never lose appreciation for living in Florida.

I always remind people how much nicer and more comfortable our "cold blasts" are in Florida relative to most other places. They provide a nice seasonable change, but rarely ever truly cold, especially given most cool days are sunny in Florida. The coolest days often make for great days to explore wilderness areas, parks, camping, and sports.
Quoting 46. plantmoretrees:

Well I would have been in sunny palm springs, but a midlife crisis fueled momxiety attack kept us from making our flight. But on the bright side, I would have missed out on our season high 2.2" of rain today. Wet n wonderful in washington state, high of 50°, native currents already blooming in Bellingham.



I would rather live where you are than in dusty dry Palm Springs where average yearly rainfall is only about 4 inches. Too dry, no forests, no moisture. I like Florida the most though as it's a nice mix of both worlds, a lot of warm sunny weather, but also a lot of water, rain, moisture and forests. Not many cloudy and cold days.
Quoting 86. Articuno:

Huge earthquake in Oklahoma (for Oklahoma it's huge ofc).

M5.1 - 28km NW of Fairview, Oklahoma -- depth 2.0 km

2016-02-13 17:07:06 (UTC)
2016-02-13 12:07:06 (UTC-05:00)

Nearby Cities
28km (17mi) NW of Fairview, Oklahoma
63km (39mi) E of Woodward, Oklahoma
72km (45mi) W of Enid, Oklahoma
104km (65mi) N of Weatherford, Oklahoma
153km (95mi) NW of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma


That area of the country gets intraplate tectonic earthquakes on and off, not as active as the New Madrid zone between St. Louis and Memphis. The Oklahoma area runs from the OKC area to the corner of OK-CO-KS borders.

It was another fairly active day at Rainier Thursday with five earthquakes in a span of 20 minutes around 1.0 Mw. The volcano averages 1-3 per month though swarms like that aren't uncommon.
Quoting 71. MontanaZephyr:



Yep love Florida alright ....

um... driving way too fast and way too close to vehicle in front of you.

Used to live there and drive through that crap and worse.

Better to hide out in Florida and enjoy all the fresh citrus that is coming on just now!
The exposed lane was neither slushy nor icy; just dry powder with great asphalt beneath. I've lived and worked--including driving professionally--in places such as Minnesota, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, and Ohio, so you'll have to take my word for it that I stayed well within both my limits and the vehicle's. At any rate, it was nice to be reminded why I choose to live at the southern tip of Florida nowadays...
Any earthquake in areas drilled for oil is suspect to be linked to waste-water injection.

"STUDY: WASTEWATER INJECTION CAUSED OKLAHOMA'S LARGEST-EVER EARTHQUAKE
THE MOST SEVERE RECORDED EARTHQUAKE IN OKLAHOMA HISTORY MAY ALSO HAVE BEEN THE MOST SEVERE EARTHQUAKE EVER LINKED TO A CERTAIN OIL AND GAS DRILLING OPERATION."
Link

Link to the Abstract study Link
nearing two pm warmest point for the day -3.1f is the temperature
will not rise above 0f today for me
we have till 4 pm may make it
Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



YIKES
Quoting 88. ndscott50:

Totally off topic question for the Florida contingent on the blog
.
I have a meeting in Coral Gables next week and fly into Fort Lauderdale around 4pm the day before. Does anyone have a recommendation on where to grab dinner where I can see the ocean, get a great piece of fish and sit at the bar (on my own and by yourself at a table is not ideal). I don’t mind doing some driving but would like to avoid sitting in traffic jams.

Any ideas would be appreciated.

On a weather note it is forecast to only be 7 degrees warmer in Miami then it is in Denver when I am there. That is not supposed to be the case in February.


Not sure if you want to stay in Ft Lauderdale or Miami. It's Bout an hour drive from the Ft Lauderdale to the Gables give or take.
If you stay up there I would go with Pier 66, Bahia Mar or the Sheraton (A1A). There's a great local spot Bahia Cabana for dinner (south end of A1A strip by marina). Tons of places on the strip as well but not my stomping grounds.

Miami lots of options there. There,s always South Beach any hotel any restaurant on Ocean Drive. There's a nice Hilton south of 5th street not so crazy that end of the beach. If it was me I'd stay in Cocunut Grove. Biscayne bay view not ocean just as pretty IMO.
Sonesta or Mutiny are nice . If you want to go low key with the locals best waterfront is Scotty Landing, there's Montey s a little touristy but the outside venue is cool. Best local fare will be your yellow tail snapper or grouper and if you've never had stone crabs is worth the $.
Hope this helps kind of tip of the iceberg but too many choices.
NASA's global temperature record for January is in, and it's the biggest monthly temperature anomaly on record, at 1.13 C above the 1951-80 average. December held the previous record, at 1.11 C.

The new record is 0.18 C higher than the previous January record of 0.95 C in 2007, and 0.32 C higher than the previous second highest, of 0.81 C, in 2015.

We live in interesting times.

NASA temperatures

and Another storm the following week for the northeast................
103. elioe
Winston might be a major threat to either Tonga or Niue.

First time I have seen Air Force Recon out of Seattle






Another mission is also flying out of Hawaii, both El Nino missions.


Google Earth Link


quoting 104. nrtiwlnvragn
Another mission is also flying out of Hawaii, both El Nino missions.

I hope they find it....
Already down to 5 degrees F and the North wind blowing about 15mph with higher gusts. That puts the wind chill in the negative 'teens I think. Still several hours to go of dropping temps.
I tried to avoid going out today...I really did but a a old friend of mine invited me out to try some Korean cuisine.Although the food was pip'in hot and the soup was wholesome the winds were out and howling with a vengeance.It felt like someone knocked the breath out of me,that's how bad it was.it was very cold today with the remaining snow from this morning turning into ice so if anyone is going to be out tonight you may want to watch out for slick spots.
I'm quite sad that the tropical storm symbols no longer appear on the global sea surface temperature map
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
and that the link from that page to the most recent blog entry is missing.
Major Wildfire Outbreak in Central and Western Africa as Drought, Hunger Grow More Widespread

The major news organizations haven’t picked it up yet, but there’s a massive wildfire outbreak now ongoing over Central and Western Africa. These wildfires are plainly visible in the NASA/MODIS satellite shot — covering about a 1,400 mile swath stretching from the Ivory Coast, through Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon and on across the Central African Republic, the Congo, and Gabon.

Link
Quoting 108. LambertDW:

I'm quite sad that the tropical storm symbols no longer appear on the global sea surface temperature map
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
and that the link from that page to the most recent blog entry is missing.
Those are just two more things to be sad about on this site. They will fix them on the next upgrade, I'm sure....
Senior U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonin Scalia found dead at West Texas ranch

Link
Well, with a Winter Weather Advisory for me, I have named this winter storm "Ezri". I created my own theme song. It's the ICE storm song.

It's an ICE storm
an ICE storm
There's an ICE storm on the way
*clap*

ICE storms are so cool
So get outside and FREEZE
One quarter inch of ICE is coming
It can knock down power lines.
*clap*

It's an ICE storm.
An ICE storm
There's an ICE storm on the way

The ICE pellets are falling
The rain is freezing on contact
The power's out
The warning's on
The ICE storm is now here
*clap*

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now here
*clap*

The roads are icing up
*clap*
The trees are falling down
*clap*
The cars are crashing
The trucks are sliding
The ICE storm is dangerous
*clap*

It's an ICE storm
an ICE storm
It's very dangerous
*clap*

The rain is letting up
*clap*
The ICE pellets are smaller
*clap*
The power's on
The warning's out
The ICE storm is leaving
*clap*

It's an ICE storm
an ICE storm
The ICE storm is now leaving
*Clap*

The sky is clearing
*clap*
The precipitation's stopped
*clap*
The landscape's beautiful
Yet also deadly
The ICE storm is now gone
*clap*

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now gone.
*clap*

And For the record, FIX YOUR SITE! I had trouble making letters appear in the comment box on Edge and Windows 10. I can't tell you how many times I came close to pounding my keyboard.
Very quiet on the blog today as the only weather is people being frozen. Nice day down here with a high of 56, five degrees above the forecast high. You can feel the cold air advection when the wind blows, but the cold air is very shallow over us. The atmosphere is extremely dry, with a low RH of 15%, and only up to 20% now. We're supposed to get a southerly flow tomorrow, which would bring the humidity up and rescue my nose before it leaves my face. The frozen precipitation chances for Monday have just about vanished in Alabama, even in the NE, where it would happen if there was any chance at all. We might get some decent rain Monday night, maybe even a low chance of a thunderstorm. We've had remarkably few thunderstorms since late December. We generally have some of our best thunderstorms during winter, but not this season so far. Given the propensity of the storms we have had to produce tornadoes, less thunderstorms isn't a bad thing. Starting Tuesday, spring begins here, with dry, sunny weather, and highs heading into the 70's by Thursday. We usually pay for spring in February, but nothing threatening on the horizon right now.
Quoting 105. PedleyCA:

quoting 104. nrtiwlnvragn
Another mission is also flying out of Hawaii, both El Nino missions.

I hope they find it....

If Scott was on one of those planes, he'd track it down for sure. :-)
The End of The Enlightenment in The Land Down Under (CSIRO)

Back in November, I wrote that our, the U.S.’s, political behavior seemed a concerted effort to accelerate our decline into the Dark Ages. This week we discover that we are not alone. Dr. Larry Marshall, the Chief Executive of CSIRO in Australia, announced large cuts in staff. CSIRO is the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization; it is Australia’s national science agency.

“At the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), we shape the future. We do this by using science to solve real issues. Our research makes a difference to people, industry and the planet.”

A large percentage of the CSIRO cuts target climate science.


After thoughtful post from Dr. Rood
The golf course was crowded today. It was a beautiful day across S.W. Florida with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
We've had 1" of rain so far this month, which is very close to average for the first 13 days of February.
From Space, Earth Looks Sickly And Fragile, Astronaut Says
Scott Kelly, the commander of the International Space Station, returns from his mission March 1.

Kelly's comments came during a recent satellite interview with CNN, in which the network's chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, asked the astronaut to describe the health of the planet as if he were looking at a human body.

Certain areas, specifically parts of Asia and Central America, Kelly said, are covered in a "haze of pollution" and "look kind of sick."


Link
See below for Kelly's full interview with CNN, in which he discusses his own health, the challenges of human missions to Mars and his views about private space travel.


Two Coasts, One Problem: In Florida, GOP Leaders Think Voters Are Stupid

In Florida, there are two coasts -- the Gulf and Atlantic -- and one problem: GOP leaders (Republicans first and foremost, because they the executive branch and legislature) think voters are stupid. Why do GOP officials think you are stupid? Simple. They think they can hide the state's afflicted waters, the massively polluted Lake Okeechobee, by shoving it into the Everglades.

Link
Historic rainfalls in January surfaced the mismanagement of water resources in Florida. Simply put, Florida's water flows downhill toward the political wealth of Big Sugar billionaires like Florida Crystal's Fanjul family or the Mott's of US Sugar. Buttressed by phalanxes of lobbyists and the most highly paid attorneys in Florida, plus hirelings in the state legislature, Big Sugar dictates outcomes for the rest of the state.

Growing sugarcane on 500,000 acres south of Lake Okeechobee requires year-round irrigation: never too wet, never too dry. Call it the Goldilocks principle because, once federal farm subsidies are added to the mix, sugar turns to gold.

The operation requires the use of Lake Okeechobee as a vast septic tank for agricultural runoff. It all works very well -- except when extraordinary rainfall requires the release of water from the Lake. Then, it is not just the Everglades that suffer the consequences: highly toxic flood water pours -- billions of gallons per day -- through the rivers and estuaries serving both Florida coasts and onto the shorefront of millions of property owners, residents, businesses and taxpayers on both coasts.

Two coasts, one problem. And possibly some cracks in the wall.


Link at 119
Quoting 113. sar2401:

Very quiet on the blog today as the only weather is people being frozen. Nice day down here with a high of 56, five degrees above the forecast high. You can feel the cold air advection when the wind blows, but the cold air is very shallow over us. The atmosphere is extremely dry, with a low RH of 15%, and only up to 20% now. We're supposed to get a southerly flow tomorrow, which would bring the humidity up and rescue my nose before it leaves my face. The frozen precipitation chances for Monday have just about vanished in Alabama, even in the NE, where it would happen if there was any chance at all. We might get some decent rain Monday night, maybe even a low chance of a thunderstorm. We've had remarkably few thunderstorms since late December. We generally have some of our best thunderstorms during winter, but not this season so far. Given the propensity of the storms we have had to produce tornadoes, less thunderstorms isn't a bad thing. Starting Tuesday, spring begins here, with dry, sunny weather, and highs heading into the 70's by Thursday. We usually pay for spring in February, but nothing threatening on the horizon right now.


it is currently 52 here along the coast. Beautiful day but definitely cool. A bit of a let down after the 70-75 degrees yesterday but after the rain on Monday, the rest of the week looks great temp wise and I can live with the partly sunny skies!
Quoting 111. RobertWC:

Senior U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonin Scalia found dead at West Texas ranch

Link


Sorry campers, I must do it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Yi7AJvzRUA
down to minus 3 already and the wind is still about 15 mph. Have to take the dogs out for a quick one in a bit
RIP Supreme Court Justice Scalia.

Quoting 124. Dakster:

RIP Supreme Court Justice Scalia.




NW? or SE?
As 116. Sfloridacat5 reported, is was great day on the golf course in Florida today. And as Americans isn't a great day on the golf course the real measure of our well being ?
Never mind all that record breaking January rainfall of toxic water being flushed off the land and into the seas around Florida.

Brown tide returns to Indian River Lagoon

COCOA BEACH — Brown tide's back in the Indian River Lagoon, reinforcing concerns the algae that first bloomed here in 2012 might become a permanent, deadly fixture.

This time, the algae — Aureoumbra lagunensis — bloomed earlier, but in the same stretches of the northern lagoon.

The algae is so small that it would take 200 of its cells to stretch across the period at the end of this sentence.

But biologists warn the damage this minuscule algae could inflict on the lagoon is huge. Brown-tide blooms block sunlight vital to the seagrass that supports much of the lagoon's marine life. It also kills shellfish such as oysters and scallops.

"It does appear there is a brown tide going on in portions of the lagoon," said Ed Garland, spokesman with the St. Johns River Water Management District. "It is the same thing that we've had in past years."


Link
Quoting 123. wartsttocs:

down to minus 3 already and the wind is still about 15 mph. Have to take the dogs out for a quick one in a bit


Be careful. Nobody wants frostbite.
Quoting 125. PedleyCA:



NW? or SE?


Soon to be NW, but still SE.
Quoting 126. RobertWC:

As 116. Sfloridacat5 reported, is was great day on the golf course in Florida today. And as Americans isn't a great day on the golf course the real measure of our well being ?
Never mind all that record breaking January rainfall of toxic water being flushed off the land and into the seas around Florida.
So, I take it you spent the day wearing sackcloth and engaging in self-flagellation rather than golfing then?
I am sorry I brought up politics....

How is your weather sar?
Quoting 137. Dakster:

I am sorry I brought up politics....

How is your weather sar?

I don't think you were the one who did. :-)

The weather here was just about perfect for mid-February. Not too hot and not too cold, but the low humidity is really getting to me and my allergies. The humidity now is only up to 35%. I got trapped in a funeral today. For those of you who don't understand Southern funerals, they get escorted by the police here, and drivers are expected to pull over to the side of the road and not continue driving until the last car in the procession passes. I don't think it's required by law, but it is by custom. Whoever the person was today, he must have been friends with everyone in the three counties. Just about every cop in town was involved in the escort, and it took about 20 minutes for everyone to get past me. Would have been a great opportunity to knock over a bank, as long as you made your escape in the opposite direction of the funeral.
Quoting 135. sar2401:

So, I take it you spent the day wearing sackcloth and engaging in self-flagellation rather than golfing then?


Nice try, but I was wearing my house coat . Because my thermostat is at 50 degrees .

And was reading about the crash of water quality in Florida. I was also reading about their collapse of oranges.

Here's my solar oven , SAR . I donated it to the Breedlove plant. the world's largest supplier of dried foods.



I will host talk about the Supreme Court on my blog.
Quoting 142. sar2401:

I don't think you were the one who did. :-)

The weather here was just about perfect for mid-February. Not too hot and not too cold, but the low humidity is really getting to me and my allergies. The humidity now is only up to 35%. I got trapped in a funeral today. For those of you who don't understand Southern funerals, they get escorted by the police here, and drivers are expected to pull over to the side of the road and not continue driving until the last car in the procession passes. I don't think it's required by law, but it is by custom. Whoever the person was today, he must have been friends with everyone in the three counties. Just about every cop in town was involved in the escort, and it took about 20 minutes for everyone to get past me. Would have been a great opportunity to knock over a bank, as long as you made your escape in the opposite direction of the funeral.


I just seemed to have kicked the political can over and it knocked gasoline onto a fire is all...

At least you were not the reason for the funeral. I look at traffic jambs the same way, if I am not the cause of it, it could always be worse.

Been nice in South Florida, but I sure can't wait to get back to cold and dry...

down to minus 10 now. wind chill in the minus thirties F.
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

I will host talk about the Supreme Court on my blog.


Best thing to do, learned that the hard way.
Quoting 84. tampabaymatt:




Let the good times roll eh?
Quoting 91. Jedkins01:




I would rather live where you are than in dusty dry Palm Springs where average yearly rainfall is only about 4 inches. Too dry, no forests, no moisture. I like Florida the most though as it's a nice mix of both worlds, a lot of warm sunny weather, but also a lot of water, rain, moisture and forests. Not many cloudy and cold days.


No doubt Florida weather sounds way better than the dry sw imo... To bad you dont have some big mtns to climb around on. 40° just topped 5" of rain for Feb, might have a shot at 10 again here in Acme wa, forcast is for that and then some. Ironically we didn't get more than 2" between mid May- mid Aug last summer.
Quoting 121. AllyBama:



it is currently 52 here along the coast. Beautiful day but definitely cool. A bit of a let down after the 70-75 degrees yesterday but after the rain on Monday, the rest of the week looks great temp wise and I can live with the partly sunny skies!

After one more cold night tonight, things should be warming up the rest of the week. Whatever happens with the incoming front and low further north and east should be pretty much a non-event for us. We might get some heavy rain for a bit Monday night, but it should remain below flash flood criteria. After that, we should have a nice rest of the week. Can't ask for much more in Alabama in February.
169. MahFL
Looking at the PWS in Central Park it reads 6F, but others in the surrounding built up area's read up to 15F.
minus 13 F, still dropping
Quoting 86. Articuno:

Huge earthquake in Oklahoma (for Oklahoma it's huge ofc).

M5.1 - 28km NW of Fairview, Oklahoma -- depth 2.0 km

2016-02-13 17:07:06 (UTC)
2016-02-13 12:07:06 (UTC-05:00)

Nearby Cities
28km (17mi) NW of Fairview, Oklahoma
63km (39mi) E of Woodward, Oklahoma
72km (45mi) W of Enid, Oklahoma
104km (65mi) N of Weatherford, Oklahoma
153km (95mi) NW of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma


A depth of 2km? Fracking.
SDO: Year 6 Ultra-HD

Quoting 172. wartsttocs:

minus 13 F, still dropping

Limbo lowah now! How low will you go?

Drakoen and I drift asymptotically towards zero.
St. Vincent - Digital Witness


Link
minus 15 and the wind is still a chuckin'
183. vis0
Quoting 172. wartsttocs:
minus 13 F, still dropping


Quoting 178. BaltimoreBrian:

Limbo lowah now! How low will you go?


Drakoen and I drift asymptotically towards zero.


NYc is at balmy 5F dewpt at -16... (polarbear plunge???)
When I run into this situation, my thought is that, even how bad my day is, someone is having a worse one. Makes me feel happy and sad at the same time.

Quoting 149. Dakster:



I just seemed to have kicked the political can over and it knocked gasoline onto a fire is all...

At least you were not the reason for the funeral. I look at traffic jambs the same way, if I am not the cause of it, it could always be worse.

Been nice in South Florida, but I sure can't wait to get back to cold and dry...


See below!

Quoting 142. sar2401:

I don't think you were the one who did. :-)

The weather here was just about perfect for mid-February. Not too hot and not too cold, but the low humidity is really getting to me and my allergies. The humidity now is only up to 35%. I got trapped in a funeral today. For those of you who don't understand Southern funerals, they get escorted by the police here, and drivers are expected to pull over to the side of the road and not continue driving until the last car in the procession passes. I don't think it's required by law, but it is by custom. Whoever the person was today, he must have been friends with everyone in the three counties. Just about every cop in town was involved in the escort, and it took about 20 minutes for everyone to get past me. Would have been a great opportunity to knock over a bank, as long as you made your escape in the opposite direction of the funeral.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

EXTREME ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS CONTINUES
WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -12 IN WORCESTER AND -6 IN BOSTON AS OF 1 AM.
THESE ARE THE COLDEST READINGS RECORDED AT BOTH LOCATIONS SINCE
2004. IF BOS/ORH DROP TWO MORE DEGREES IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TEMPS RECORDED IN THESE LOCATIONS SINCE 1957. SO ITS FAIR TO SAY
THAT THIS IS A HISTORIC ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR THE MODERN ERA. A NEW
RECORD WAS ALSO BROKEN WITH THE FEB 14/00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING AT ALBANY. THE H850 TEMP WAS - 30.8 C. THE PREVIOUS RECORD
COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE WAS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY 1981 AND ON
18 JANUARY 1982.
Just stopping in to wish all the Ladies out there a VERY HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY..hope its a great one for you all.
It maybe cold for a day in the extreme ne and the top of mt Washington but there is little snow in the ne and a big chunk of the us is abnormally warm as well as western Canada ....Calgary is way above normal and will be for the foreseeable future just massive swings
Happy Valentine's Day from NOAA


193. vis0
as expected the polar bear plunge in NJ became the Polar Bear Prance.

If any of the WxU top Master bloggers blog on this cold (maybe a paragraph within the update of the next Eastern LOW), how many C's will be used in the paragraphs title:: as in CCCold, i say 3 C's plus half a frozen Font C.

BTW notice how the cold arrives in the NE with reinforcing strength yet retreats faster than expected after getting past Tennessee's Latitude...anyone remember me stating that with my **-* explanation?, NO? Oh well.

Lets see which of the strong Jets streams gets closer to zip 10016, The one linked to the Polar Vortex or the one linked to ENSO-e, whichever gets closer gets an added almost 2 times its energy boost, why? wink wink **-*, or just a lucky guess that panned out through the physics of weather.

If the DOC is up North don't forget to use Locl-De-Icer to unfreeze your keyboards keys, DO NOT USE blow torch or your QWERTY will become SMELTY
Its either 0  (sit down Dakster not "oo" as in spafettiOHs)or -1F .
194. apdoo
This morning in Boston it was -11 degrees, and the current forecast is for a high of around 55 on Tuesday. That means the spread is likely to be more like 65 degrees than the 55 in the story. Impressive indeed!
we get what we deserve. by the time our gov. scott is finished with his term there will be brown water surrounding all of florida. here is e cen florida the color of the water is pea green add on alittle brown. i wouldnt swim in it.
This pattern seems to be tracking further east than suggested at the time of the original post. Here in southern central Michigan (near Lansing), it was -11 degrees F at 7 AM 2/14. We're predicted to see a high of 51 on 2/16, a swing of 62 degrees during approximately 55 hours ! Wild stuff.
Minus 16 F at about 5:30 this morning here on the hill in South-Central New Hampshire. Now it is up to minus 8.
The political crap is still on going this morning I see.I'll return when weather is the subject again.
201. vis0
Quoting 192. nrtiwlnvragn:

Happy Valentine's Day from NOAA



or

will "El ENSO"** put an arrow (jet streak) thru it (though me think-ith date of img is not now..2oh!elevenJune)

**Not Nino he's to young to be in luv.
Winter Storm Ezri is starting in Carbondale IL. Listening to this right now.
Quoting 149. Dakster:



I just seemed to have kicked the political can over and it knocked gasoline onto a fire is all...

At least you were not the reason for the funeral. I look at traffic jambs the same way, if I am not the cause of it, it could always be worse.

Been nice in South Florida, but I sure can't wait to get back to cold and dry...


Thanks Daks.
Quoting 193. vis0:

as expected the polar bear plunge in NJ became the Polar Bear Prance.

If any of the WxU top Master bloggers blog on this cold (maybe a paragraph within the update of the next Eastern LOW), how many C's will be used in the paragraphs title:: as in CCCold, i say 3 C's plus half a frozen Font C.

BTW notice how the cold arrives in the NE with reinforcing strength yet retreats faster than expected after getting past Tennessee's Latitude...anyone remember me stating that with my **-* explanation?, NO? Oh well.

Lets see which of the strong Jets streams gets closer to zip 10016, The one linked to the Polar Vortex or the one linked to ENSO-e, whichever gets closer gets an added almost 2 times its energy boost, why? wink wink **-*, or just a lucky guess that panned out through the physics of weather.

If the DOC is up North don't forget to use Locl-De-Icer to unfreeze your keyboards keys, DO NOT USE blow torch or your QWERTY will become SMELTY
Its either 0  (sit down Dakster not "oo" as in spafettiOHs)or -1F .

It looks like the official low in Central Park came in as zero compared to the previous record of two above. All the manholes must be pouring out steam this morning. The low windchill was -21. Radar Dog and I would suffer instant death in that kind of weather. He's a Southern dog, and a temperature of 30 makes him shiver for ten minutes after a walk. Makes me shiver for about that long also, but our low of 31 looks positively mild by comparison to NYC. The SPC has introduced a marginal chance of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening for me. Doesn't seem very likely, but I'll have to keep an eye on the dewpoint. We've had a couple of tornadoes from not very likely storms this season.
Quoting 192. nrtiwlnvragn:

Happy Valentine's Day from NOAA



Aww, :-) I wonder who the meteorologist was who remembered that heart shaped cloud and saved it just for Valentine's Day? I hope those who are lucky enough to have someone to love, and love them, have a wonderful Valentine's. True love isn't common, and it sometimes doesn't last as long as we hope it would.
So, anything new in da wacky werld of weather blogging/commenting?

: )

Winston




212. vis0
Quoting 208. Patrap:

So, anything new in da wacky werld of weather blogging/commenting?

: )



here 600x475, View on YouTube at 939x713

See the LOW that Patrap pointed out yesterday heading N/NNW, its front ripped off heading NNE, lets see if the LOW nudges/displaces some more colder air southward into the NE USofA.

APOLOGY my Horiz control on my TV was off ; - P causing the lower half of the VID to wiggle...no one except sar2401, Parap, Grothar know what that "Horiz." is, darn (joke falls flat.)

As to new?,
Why did the chicken swim across the road?
\
'cause it was 2150AD all road lead to (under)water

 ...2150AD (EDIT-oops) too far away for some to care?
Imagine if Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Jackson, or Alexander Hamilton thought that way, to think 200 yrs into the future for a developing country and now we have a "developed" country and we're taking it apart, lets use the present Australian model to do that.
MY WARNING, not WxUs:: Australians  you will receive the affects of aGW last being y are surrounded by water (lots of) so the ocean by itself (not interacting with fronts over landmasses) will see affects last, BUT WHEN YOU do it will be disastrous specially if by then your cities are coastline cities.


213. Tcwx2
So we went from snow to tornadoes. Yep that is typical weather for ya.
Quoting 205. sar2401:

It looks like the official low in Central Park came in as zero compared to the previous record of two above. All the manholes must be pouring out steam this morning. The low windchill was -21. Radar Dog and I would suffer instant death in that kind of weather. He's a Southern dog, and a temperature of 30 makes him shiver for ten minutes after a walk. Makes me shiver for about that long also, but our low of 31 looks positively mild by comparison to NYC. The SPC has introduced a marginal chance of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening for me. Doesn't seem very likely, but I'll have to keep an eye on the dewpoint. We've had a couple of tornadoes from not very likely storms this season.
214. Tcwx2
Happy Valentine's Day to everyone!!
Australia is the one Continent where Climate Change has wrecked havoc wholesale.


Climate Change in Australia
10:37 AM EST Sunday 14 February 2016
Extreme Cold Warning ended for:
•City of Toronto
Temperature:

-3.3°F

Dewpoint:

-18.4°F

Humidity:

48%

Wind:

WNW 2 mph

Wind Chill:

-8
Typhoon Winston


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 FEB 2016 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 24:33:50 S Lon : 179:01:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 970.8mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.6

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 50.9 degrees



Quoting 222. Tazmanian:




agreed where are the lazy so called mods that sould be banding and cleaning up the blog seems like there no where too be found
this lazy mod just got up having my first java of the am and seems comments have disappeared

if peeps would keep their political crap to themselves or better yet go somewhere else where they talk that crap then it would be better for our weather blog
Quoting 200. washingtonian115:

The political crap is still on going this morning I see.I'll return when weather is the subject again.
Let me try to help.


Okay very questionable but Michael Ventrice on twitter showed a sounding that showed what MAY be the tropopause getting below the 900 mb level over Long Island. It may be that the air is so cold and dense in all the levels of the atmosphere but if that sounding is legitimate then.........


Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice. 3h
"A tough one but, arguable.. the tropopause is sub-850mb for Long Island, NY?! This needs to be in a textbook if yes"
from above

In the soundings to be launched at 0Z Sunday (7:00 pm Saturday), the temperatures at 850 mb (about a mile above sea level) may challenge February record lows at New York and Boston, in data going back to 1948. Buffalo has a shot at its monthly 850-mb record low on Saturday morning, and on Saturday night, Albany could break its all-time coldest radiosonde-measured 850-mb temperature (current record -31.8C, interpolated from data on Feb. 8, 1963; thanks to Patrick Marsh, NOAA Storm Prediction Center).
229. vis0

Quoting 215. Patrap:

Australia is the one Continent where Climate Change has wrecked havoc wholesale.


Climate Change in Australia
am reading it soon, being its PDF, (dwnloding at 49k / 5.6Kbs) will post my explanation as to my comment above on my blog since it has to do with that device i type of and post the link to that comment later on Dr. Masters. Still notice its been more a temperature change  than continuous precipitation / TS extremes.
February 10, 2016: MODIS Aqua true color image showing heavy sediment plume in Lake Pontchartrain after one-month opening of Bonnet Carre Spillway



Larger Image
Looks like a good 3-5 inches if snow will fall around the DC metro area very early Monday morning and into the evening hours before the transition to freezing rain and then plain rain.
Quoting 231. Drakoen:

Looks like a good 3-5 inches if snow will fall around the DC metro area very early Monday morning and into the evening hours before the transition to freezing rain and then plain rain.
Its suppose to snow tomorrow?
almost whiteout conditions here with the snow and 16-20 mph winds gusting to 30-35 mph ..

Feels like 0 to 8 degrees here just after noon ..
Quoting 235. washingtonian115:

Its suppose to snow tomorrow?


Yes.
Quoting 235. washingtonian115:

Its suppose to snow tomorrow?
ya for here by noon maybe 5 to 10 cm then warms above freezing a couple of degrees afterward as milder air replaces the arctic air
Interesting read on the February 1973 southeast snowfall [Link], amazing how coastal areas would see even more in 1989.
Washington D.C. NWS Discussion

An upper-level disturbance in the westerly flow aloft will move
into the region late tonight. Low pressure will begin to develop
over the Gulf Coast states during this time. Warm and moist air
will overrun the cold air in place...causing snow to break out
overnight. Accumulating snow is likely across central Virginia
into the Potomac Highlands...and possibly into the Washington
metropolitan area and southern Maryland by daybreak.

&&

tomorrows snow now



Quoting 241. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

tomorrows snow now






It will be interesting to get a report from the member that lives in Illinois that is always wanting snow.
rains will wash it all away once cold air is outta the way

how much snow you get so far today wab
Quoting 211. Patrap:

A Special shout out to my Daughter Samantha who turns 25 today.

Happy Valentines Birthday to you!

Oh she's my baby, Let me tell you why
Hey, she drives me crazy, She's the apple of my eye
'Cause she is my girl, And she can never do wrong
If I dream too much at night, Somebody please bring me down


Whoever said time flies meant it...Greetings..:)
Indianapolis nw of


up too 11.8 f now on the pws 15.6 degree temp rise from yesterday this time was -3.8
Louisville Kentucky

CCTV063

Location: I-64 at Frazier Museum
Direction: Lane closest to camera is Eastbound
3797

Location: I-64 W of US 150 - Mile 118.9
due west of Louisville Kentucky


Quoting 246. Sfloridacat5:



It will be interesting to get a report from the member that lives in Illinois that is always wanting snow.


Had just around 2" here and it just wrapped up, very small flakes,very misty like, when it snowed. . Had a bit of a dry easterly flow into our area too, that knocked down my totals just a smidgen. Areas to the south and west of me had closer to 3-4" (Springfield IL, Lincoln, Decatur) Temps really rising since this morning.

Up to 25 F now sun is out.

First half of FEB for me has been below normal temps an below average precip.

These totals fairly much verified for forecast across the area.



KEEPEROFTHETRAFFICCAMS
Meanwhile by the time this advisory is over it'll already be in the 50's here. Don't mind missing the ice.

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
BLADEN...ROBESON...DILLON...MARLBORO...AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...MINOR ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP
TO TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.

* IMPACTS...ELEVATED SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
MAY DEVELOP PATCHES OF ICE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND
DANGEROUS. MOST ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN JUST WET.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S...RISING INTO THE LOW 30S MONDAY
MORNING.
18 hours from now
Quoting 259. ILwthrfan:



Had just around 2" here and it just wrapped up, very small flakes,very misty like, when it snowed. . Had a bit of a dry easterly flow into our area too, that knocked down my totals just a smidgen. Areas to the south and west of me had closer to 3-4" (Springfield IL, Lincoln, Decatur) Temps really rising since this morning.

Up to 25 F now sun is out.

First half of FEB for me has been below normal temps an below average precip.

These totals fairly much verified for forecast across the area.






Nice, thanks for the update.
Uriah might be interesting to watch. Forecast to become a category four system and no land nearby in its path.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
HURRICANE WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON, CATEGORY THREE (09F)
6:00 AM FST February 15 2016
=============================
South of Fiji

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Three (972 hPa) located at 24.1S 178.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on hourly multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
190 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent but displaced to east of low level circulation center. Organization remains good. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. System lies under a moderate to strong upper divergence region and in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and north. System tracking along the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge located to the north. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center pattern, low level circulation center embedded in MG yields DT=4.0, MET=4.0, PT=3.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on MET. CI held higher due to weakening trend.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 22.6S 179.6W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 21.2S 178.1W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 19.0S 175.1W - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Storm Warning
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE URIAH (05-20152016)/09U
22:00 PM RET February 14 2016
=====================================
Southeast of Diego Garcia

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Uriah (982 hPa) located at 15.3S 89.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===========
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 230 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: 3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 16.3S 88.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.2S 86.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.1S 82.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.8S 79.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=================
Uriah has just come into La Reunion's of responsibility coming from Australian's.

During the last hours deep convection has organized into a curved band wrapping 0.9 around the center, as seen on the 1525z AMSU data and last satellite infrared imagery.

During the next 24 hours the moderate northeasterly upper level constraint will be offset by a good polar outflow, so the system is expected to intensify progressively. Beyond, upper level conditions will improve under the axis of the ridge and the persistent polar outflow.

Uriah is forecast to go on tracking southwestward under the steering influence of the sub-tropical ridge in the southeast. Up to Wednesday, the track is expected to become more south southwest as the ridge rebuild in the east of the system. From Thursday the system should weaken slowly due to the decrease of the ocean heat content south of 23.0S.
Doesn't sound too bad for Triangle, unless you consider what havoc can be created with just a little snow... or ice.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
...WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

.A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
STARTING TONIGHT... LASTING UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076-150500-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0002.160215T0500Z-160215T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.160215T0500Z-160215T1800Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHA THAM-WAKE-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...CARY...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUN T GILEAD...
SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD
353 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1
PM EST MONDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

* LOCATIONS...THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... THE
SANDHILLS... AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARD TYPES...PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET TONIGHT... TRENDING TO SLEET THEN
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING... AND
TO JUST RAIN BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM A TRACE UP TO 1 INCH...
ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START TONIGHT...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO ALL
RAIN BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT IN THIS AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30... WARMING INTO THE 40S LATE MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

lol.I honestly forgot it was suppose to "snow" tomorrow.
Quoting 266. hydrus:


so looks like I can start backing off on the heat a little this morning at 7 am the boiler room was all steam the minute I opened the ice covered door too the room instant fog I go check now and see how it is but warming now this time tomorrow we be 34 to 36 f -11 was the low at 5 am this morning be like 45 too 47 degree temp swing in little over 24 hrs
Quoting 267. washingtonian115:


lol.I honestly forgot it was suppose to "snow" tomorrow.
Hello Washi.
Quoting 267. washingtonian115:


lol.I honestly forgot it was suppose to "snow" tomorrow.
funny to hear ya say that wash morning will be a bad traffic day maybe afternoon too if ya can keep some cold air under the advancing warmer stuff
Sad News

Damon Klein lost his battle this morning .. He taught under privileged children for many years before becoming ill .. was a long time blogger here back at the start of the blogs in 2005 .. I met him on a trip to Florida many years ago .. he had a great sense of humor ..

Rest in Peace Damon .. you are missed already !!
Quoting 269. hydrus:

Hello Washi.
Hello Hydrus.Seems like after this cold blast and storm we'll have smooth sailing into late February and early March.Just in time for my trip.
We have a winter storm warning,in cumberland maryland and the weather channel has had " prospectors"© on all day! PATHECTIC
Quoting 273. drs2008:

We have a winter storm warning,in cumberland maryland and the weather channel has had " prospectors"© on all day! PATHECTIC

Go to CWG.They may not have a million dollar channel,but they do have informative post.
Quoting 273. drs2008:

We have a winter storm warning,in cumberland maryland and the weather channel has had " prospectors"© on all day! PATHECTIC



How much snow r u expecting?
Then changing to ice.

6 inches
Quite the icing potential. Some of those colder interior valleys could really get nasty. That cold air will not be in a hurry to leave. Looks like interior VA could be bad.

Quoting 276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Quoting 280. HaoleboySurfEC:

Quite the icing potential. Some of those colder interior valleys could really get nasty. That cold air will not be in a hurry to leave. Looks like interior VA could be bad.


even if it does warm up air wise the surfaces will have a delayed effect warming so what ever hits it will likely freeze on contact with it
long holiday weekend here so everything is closed tomorrow for family day minor effect if anything
Quoting 268. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

so looks like I can start backing off on the heat a little this morning at 7 am the boiler room was all steam the minute I opened the ice covered door too the room instant fog I go check now and see how it is but warming now this time tomorrow we be 34 to 36 f -11 was the low at 5 am this morning be like 45 too 47 degree temp swing in little over 24 hrs
Greetings Keep..These broad , fast , temp swings are becoming the norm...More to come i,m sure.
Quoting 283. hydrus:

Greetings Keep..These broad , fast , temp swings are becoming the norm...More to come i,m sure.
looking at maybe 2nd week of march till the end of march next round
and one large scale high impact event to mark end of winter and start of spring
if march arrives like a lamb it leaves like a savage

so I hope it comes in like a savage then follow up with the lamb for spring
Hi all, Been watching for snow. My brother is driving this evening from Norwalk Ohio area to Detroit Michigan to catch a plane to Mexico City for work. To me, snow and ice are the scariest to drive in, especially when its dark.
Hi folks with a late night post from dear Europe which is currently under a huge trough bringing cold and snowy weather to western Europe, even to the southwest with Spain and moreover to northwestern Africa. Weather in the western and central Mediterranean will be very unsettled the next days (remember the guy who asked more than two weeks ago about the weather to expect for his cruise in this region this next week, lol? Well, now he should know. Could be a wet and bumby ride ...). On the other side the trough with its lows will advect very warm air from the south to eastern Europe. The map of temperature anomalies tells the story.


Current trough in air mass pic (11 pm UTC).


And here current conditions according to GFS.


Temperature anomaly in the new week. Earlier this winter it has been the opposite: warm in the west and cold in the east. My place in Germany is in between, so neither fish nor fowl.


Fresh snow in the Alps. Webcam shot from Aletsch glacier in Switzerland an hour ago with moon set. Source foto-webcam.eu.
Oh yes!
Bolivia's second-largest lake has disappeared
Deutsche Welle English, Feb 10, 2016
Once upon a time, it was Bolivia's second-largest lake. Today, it has all but vanished. New satellite images have confirmed this. The disappearance of Lake Poopó has dramatic consequences for wildlife - and people. ...

Was that a sonic boom?
We have a winter storm warning,in cumberland maryland and the weather channel has had " prospectors"© on all day! PATHECTIC


ya. the weather channel only has one live weather segment on the weekends. "The Weekend Recharge" in the mornings.

Guess "Olympia" is not big enough news for special coverage.
293. MahFL
Quoting 290. barbamz:

Bolivia's second-largest lake has disappeared
Deutsche Welle English, Feb 10, 2016
Once upon a time, it was Bolivia's second-largest lake. Today, it has all but vanished. New satellite images have confirmed this. The disappearance of Lake Poopó has dramatic consequences for wildlife - and people. ...




This lake periodically dries up, also most of the water coming is is diverted for silver mining. So it's not really an example of a lake drying up due to global warming.
Total difference coming next Sunday, compared to today.
Quoting 294. Climate175:

Total difference coming next Sunday, compared to today.
Spring is on the way.
I saw in the news that the Anthem of the Seas is on its way to Port Canaveral, arriving by Tuesday, then onward to the Bahamas.
Quoting 295. washingtonian115:

Spring is on the way.
298. MahFL
Quoting 296. marynell:

I saw in the news that the Anthem of the Seas is on its way to Port Canaveral, arriving by Tuesday, then onward to the Bahamas.


That would be the next scheduled cruise, got to keep the $$ flowing.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:9 91737/zoom:10
Quoting 293. MahFL:



This lake periodically dries up, also most of the water coming is is diverted for silver mining. So it's not really an example of a lake drying up due to global warming.



Say what?

"This is a climate disaster," said Raúl Pérez Albrecht, head of the Latin American Environmental Network. "Temperatures in the region have increased nearly 2 degrees [Celsius] over the past three decades - rain is ever more seldom," Albrecht continued.
Another major factor contributing to the lake's decline is diversion of water from the river that feeds the lake, for agriculture or for the many silver and tin mines in the region.
Gradual shrinkage
Already once in the 1980s, the lake dried out completely. The water came back that time, although the lake never again reached its original size. It has shrunk from year to year, Albrecht said.
300. 882MB
Looks like Winston wants to re-intensify, and stick around. Should be a really interesting storm to watch, track-wise and intensity-wise. JTWC has it weakening some the next 2 days, and then by day 5 going up to 80KTS. HWRF model explodes this into a monster. But we all know intensity that far out its sort of uncertain, just something for those folks in that part of the world to keep an eye on. Ohh, and by the way Happy Valentines Day to Everyone. :)







Quoting 273. drs2008:

We have a winter storm warning,in cumberland maryland and the weather channel has had " prospectors"© on all day! PATHECTIC

I used to love "Prospectors"! I think I've seen every one soo many...!%$@# ... anyway. We are getting snow flakes now in central NC. While there is still a lot of dry air in place in the lower levels; I'm hopeful we can get more snow than ice, then rain. As always the case this year, jet dynamic's and phasing are key to the evolution of a winter type system.
Quoting 293. MahFL:


This lake periodically dries up, also most of the water coming is is diverted for silver mining. So it's not really an example of a lake drying up due to global warming.
STRAWMAN ALERT!

The article asked the question "Natural disaster - caused by humans?" and stated that it was a combination or average temperature increases (which implies Global Warming), reduced rainfall (which implies climate change), and water diversion (which refers to water used for agriculture and mining). These changes are related to human activities.

Nowhere did it say - or even suggest - that it was simply "an example of a lake drying up due to global warming."

Of course, those who are completely clueless about science and the workings of nature might not be able to grasp a basic concept here - that in a warming world, it is even more difficult for lakes and rivers to replenish themselves in many regions following over-extraction or diversion of water.

Rain once asked me why do we treat snow like a celebrity.He said "you all take pictures with your pets rolling in it and kids enjoying it!" "You all are like the paparazzi with your phones and cameras out! what about me!".I told rain something mean along the lines such as "You're like the plain Jane sibling no one wants to talk to at a party.Your brother leaves with all the numbers and YOU leave with none!" I should have kept my snark remarks to myself because now rain will be coming after his brother leaves town with a vengeance!
For entertainment purposes....

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
NYC cancelled Central Park snow festival in Jan,too snowy cancelled ice festival Sat: too cold. Heck of a way to run a global warmup
Almost 50 by Friday here in SC Wisconsin. To be followed by two more 40's. Been frigid. Many days of -5-15 chills through January. Early Spring and a wild March through May on the way?
306. bwi
Quoting 300. 882MB:

Looks like Winston wants to re-intensify, and stick around. Should be a really interesting storm to watch, track-wise and intensity-wise. JTWC has it weakening some the next 2 days, and then by day 5 going up to 80KTS. HWRF model explodes this into a monster. But we all know intensity that far out its sort of uncertain, just something for those folks in that part of the world to keep an eye on. Ohh, and by the way Happy Valentines Day to Everyone. :)

We got a close look at Winston on Saturday afternoon local time, when we were flying back north to Fiji. It was just luck we were seated on the left side of the plane. Weather was very hot and still in Nadi.
Quoting 304. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes....

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
NYC cancelled Central Park snow festival in Jan,too snowy cancelled ice festival Sat: too cold. Heck of a way to run a global warmup


No need for redundancy, the 'entertainment purpose' is implied.
Quoting 294. Climate175:

Total difference coming next Sunday, compared to today.


Thumbs up weather



Quoting 308. win1gamegiantsplease:



Thumbs up weather




Looks like that forecast be a reality soon, which would be April. Depends on how rainy April is though.
Nice Snow fog outside. 3-5 inches still looks like a good forecast.
After racking my brain all afternoon and most of the evening I finally came up with Damon Kleins blog handle here on WU for those that were wondering .. it was Damon85013
Hallo! We made it from NW VT to SW Maine and back just fine, despite the sub-zero temps, though on the way over we met with some fine powdery snow, more like plumes of it than squalls. Got down to -23.5F at my house Saturday night! Brrr. It's a mere -14.9F so far tonight. There was a gorgeous blue sky Sunday in New England! So now we are all looking a bit forward to some 40's for a reprieve!
Measured .5 inches so far.
Live east of Naples, south of you. Wife heard it also and said it sounded like thunder a long was away. Wonder if a was a meteor.


Quoting 291. Skyepony:

Was that a sonic boom?
Might have been this Skye.
Link
316. vis0

Quoting 215. Patrap:

Australia is the one Continent where Climate Change has wrecked havoc wholesale.


Climate Change in Australia
my 2cents saying it'll be worse (like it is not already getting worse : - P) but i use my self taught Galacsic Edumicated guesswork...its on my zilly blog pg. 7 cmmnt#319, warning it does involve asterisk-cized language.
317. vis0

Quoting 286. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

if march arrives like a lamb it leaves like a savage

so I hope it comes in like a savage then follow up with the lamb for spring
i thought it read sausage.  But with the extra warming in the atmosphere it might come in and leave as a savage, just of different degrees.
318. vis0

Quoting 303. washingtonian115:

Rain once asked me why do we treat snow like a celebrity.He said "you all take pictures with your pets rolling in it and kids enjoying it!" "You all are like the paparazzi with your phones and cameras out! what about me!".I told rain something mean along the lines such as "You're like the plain Jane sibling no one wants to talk to at a party.Your brother leaves with all the numbers and YOU leave with none!" I should have kept my snark remarks to myself because now rain will be coming after his brother leaves town with a vengeance!
SLEET:: What am i chopped liver,. watch me make DC drivers quiver
Sincerely,
Not M. Ali
Last year's peak daily CO2 reading at Mauna Loa was 404.84 ppm on April 13. We have reached several new all-time peaks, most recently on February 6, 2016 at 405.91 ppm. Will we reach 406 ppm this year? 407?
Quoting 317. vis0:

I thought it read sausage. But with the extra warming in the atmosphere it might come in and leave as a savage, just of different degrees.
March weather can be a lot like waking up and having sausage for breakfast. It's going from bed to wurst!
night and fog

Snow whispers softly
on the windowpanes as I
turn back to his arms
Denn das Schöne ist nichts als des Schrecklichen Anfang, das wir kaum in der Lage sind, zu ertragen. Und es erstaunt uns so, weil es gelassen davon absieht, uns zu zerstören. Ein jeder Engel ist schrecklich.
Quoting 280. HaoleboySurfEC:

Quite the icing potential. Some of those colder interior valleys could really get nasty. That cold air will not be in a hurry to leave. Looks like interior VA could be bad.




I'm in Ohio for son's OU (Athens) visit, after weekend hockey tourney in Toledo. Heavy Lake effect plus arctic front boundary snow 6PM Fri night near Cleveland, otherwise just really cold! After 1" of snow in 15 minutes near CLE I had visions of getting snowbound but it ended as fast as it hit and then just icy snowpacked road with freezing spray on the windshield for 60 miles.

Gotta drive back home to DC through western MD and WV mountains tonight and that's going to be rough.
Quoting 304. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes....

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
NYC cancelled Central Park snow festival in Jan,too snowy cancelled ice festival Sat: too cold. Heck of a way to run a global warmup
Oh, poor little Joe. All that expensive schooling from Penn State, and he still struggles with the difference between climate and weather? One can't help but wonder whether he may have missed a class semester. Or two.
Quoting 320. BaltimoreBrian:

March weather can be a lot like waking up and having sausage for breakfast. It's going from bed to wurst!


After getting greens through the deep cold of January I still have to hurdle the dormancy destroying variances of March. March can actually be tough because of rapid thaws under a strong sun after a cold night. Sun on frozen plants is not in general good.
moisture flowing in e cen florida
2" here in Western Fairfax Country. Was a nice brooming of my driveway. Roads seems in good condition, we didn't get plowed out for 3 days after Snowzilla but everything has already been plowed. The snow had stopped and stayed to the south of us for several hours but we are back to light snow now.
Monday, February 15, 2016
"For the time of year, Arctic sea ice remains at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The reason for the record low sea ice is that there is more ocean heat than there used to be. ...the Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature was as warm as 11.3°C (52.4°F) at a location near Svalbard...a 10.4°C (18.7°F) anomaly. The reason for this is that the water off the east coast of North America is much warmer than it used to be. The Gulf Stream is pushing heat all the way into the Arctic Ocean."
Source: http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/02/arctic-sea -ice-remains-at-record-low-for-time-of-year.html
a really stormy day tomorrow thru wens in the northeast..heed your local warnings...........
real cold up in the northeast this morning..................................
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-161415-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILT ON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MO NTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
504 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. ACTIVITY BOTH AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE IMPACTS
ARE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO CLANTON TO PHENIX
CITY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
Quoting 303. washingtonian115:

Rain once asked me why do we treat snow like a celebrity.He said "you all take pictures with your pets rolling in it and kids enjoying it!" "You all are like the paparazzi with your phones and cameras out! what about me!".I told rain something mean along the lines such as "You're like the plain Jane sibling no one wants to talk to at a party.Your brother leaves with all the numbers and YOU leave with none!" I should have kept my snark remarks to myself because now rain will be coming after his brother leaves town with a vengeance!
I love the rain, you can keep the snow.
Good Morning. Current look and forecast for Conus. Very active weather pattern in place driven by the jet:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2016

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 15 2016 - 12Z Wed Feb 17 2016

...Snow...ice...and heavy rain expected with a complex storm system
tracking from the Tennessee Valley to the Eastern U.S. on Monday...


Precipitation over the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic region will
intensify and become more widespread as a wave of low pressure over the
Lower Mississippi Valley deepens while tracking towards the Appalachians
on Monday. Within the northern edge of the precipitation shield...several
locations will see snow transitioning to sleet or freezing rain...before
eventually changing over to all rain as increasing amounts of warm moist
air overrun a retreating Arctic airmass. The deepening surface low will
continue to track northeastward along the Appalachians...allowing for the
messy wintry mix of precipitation to spread into the Northeast Monday
night into Tuesday. The highest snowfall totals should be just to the
north and west of the low track...mainly across northwestern Pennsylvania
and western New York. Ice accumulations will be possible for a large
portion of the Mid-Atlantic and New England states...while heavy rain will
be the dominant threat for locations closer to the coast.
And finally the temperature differentials contributing to the baroclinic convection as the result of the warm gulf flow:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



Sunday's teeth-chattering temperatures were some of the coldest on record.

From New York and Boston to Providence, Rhode Island, and Hartford, Connecticut, temperatures on Sunday morning dipped to as low as minus 40 — on Mount Washington in New Hampshire.
No evidence of Gulf return flow in SE Alabama yet, with a temperature of 47 under overcast skies. The wind is south at 3 mph with 10 mph "gusts", so some warmer and more humid air should make it here later today. There has been some light rain in north Alabama overnight but nowhere else. The barometer is down to 30.04" from 30.15" at midnight, so a surface low this afternoon looks likely. One of those days not to get too excited, just keep a wary eye on the sky and dewpoint.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
Storm Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE URIAH (05-20152016)
16:00 PM RET February 15 2016
=====================================
Southeast of Diego Garcia
Northeast of Rodrigues Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Uriah (988 hPa) located at 16.5S 87.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 280 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 17.4S 85.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.6S 83.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.7S 80.4E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 21.5S 78.4E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=================
Since 0600 UTC, convective activity has remained near the center, but cloud pattern has worsen. On the last images, a new curved band is wrapping in the northern semi-circle, while the summits are again getting hotter. Dry air mass is reaching the southeastern quadrant, and still limiting Uriah deepening.

Tomorrow, Uriah is expected to continue tracking west southwest, steered by the subtropical ridge, on its southeast. From Wednesday, the system will progressively move towards south southwest, with the rebuilding of a ridge, in the east. For the end of the week, Uriah is likely to slowdown because of the building of a ridge in the south. However the spread in the numerical guidance is higher. A low level trough may steer Uriah southeastwards to the mid-latitudes.

On this track, upper levels conditions remain conducive up to Thursday with a weak vertical wind shear. However, the dry air mass wrapping around Uriah may delay the deepening. On Wednesday, the building of an outflow channel on the polar side is likely to help the system intensifying more rapidly. After Thursday, the arrival of an upper trough will increase the northwesterly vertical wind shear, and start the weakening, accentuated by the marginal ocean heat content south of 23.0S.
Some fairly blazing--for mid-February--temperatures in Eastern Europe today, with many dozens of stations across Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, and so on experiencing daily and monthly high temperature records--and tomorrow should be warmer still.

In the meantime, after yesterday's deep, deep freeze across the Northeast US, just a few daily low temperature records were set this morning, and tomorrow is expected to see above normal across much of the area. Case in point: Watertown, NY, which reached -37 yesterday, is expected to see a high of 36 tomorrow, a welcome two-day upward swing of 73 degrees. (Friday's high is also forecast to be 36.)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #21
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
0:00 AM FST February 16 2016
=============================
Southeast of Fiji
West of Tonga

A STORM WARNING is in effect for Ono-I-Lau, Vatoa, Fulaga, and Ogea of the Lau Islands

A GALE WARNING is in effect for Kabara, Namuka, Komo, Moce, Oneata, and Lakeba of the Lau Islands


At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Winston, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 20.6S 178.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 18 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
30 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
120 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Deep convection remains persistent but displaced just east of low level circulation center. Organization remains good. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C. System lies under a moderate upper divergence region and in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east. System is being steered to the northeast by the southwest deep layer mean wind flow. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap yields DT=2.5, MET and PT agree. Ft based on DT. CI held higher due to weakening trend.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 19.3S 176.7W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 18.4S 175.7W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 16.7S 174.0W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
Quoting 343. sar2401:

No evidence of Gulf return flow in SE Alabama yet, with a temperature of 47 under overcast skies. The wind is south at 3 mph with 10 mph "gusts", so some warmer and more humid air should make it here later today. There has been some light rain in north Alabama overnight but nowhere else. The barometer is down to 30.04" from 30.15" at midnight, so a surface low this afternoon looks likely. One of those days not to get too excited, just keep a wary eye on the sky and dewpoint.

It's slowly on the way;  the lower cloud deck flow further to your East over Tallahassee is from south-west to north-east (from the Gulf).  However, it's still very cool and overcast. Based on this, I am not sure that we are going to reach the forecast high of around 70 unless the deck clears later to let some sun in.  If the deck remains in place, this should lower the instability later in the afternoon.

Just under 3" of snow on my deck railings here in Hampton, VA. The change over to rain has just begun so the show is over.
349. JRRP
12-18 inches of snow for WNY, first real snow of the season, at least for the Rochester area, while Buffalo/Watertown got some lake effect snows, while the South Shore of Ontario, not so much.
HWRF takes Winston straight into the east side of FIJI with a 889mb pressure....:/ Still over 100 hours out.



GFS is a bit more tame and takes Winston south of FIJI but with significant impacts...

Morning all. Hope everyone had an enjoyable weekend. Heavy fog in the area this morning, should burn off here in the next hour or two. Chance of some wintry mix tonight but then after that going to turn into a pretty mild week. Knowing this area it will give me enough of a taste for spring to get my hopes up just for another blizzard to come in and bring me back down to earth.

We used to live in Maine and I traveled quite a bit throughout ME, NH, VT and upstate NY. Once I was in St. Albans, VT and I had to get to Ft Kent, ME the next day. I drove through Canada because it was faster. Although cold, those are special blue sky days that are reserved only for those that venture out.

Quoting 312. listenerVT:

Hallo! We made it from NW VT to SW Maine and back just fine, despite the sub-zero temps, though on the way over we met with some fine powdery snow, more like plumes of it than squalls. Got down to -23.5F at my house Saturday night! Brrr. It's a mere -14.9F so far tonight. There was a gorgeous blue sky Sunday in New England! So now we are all looking a bit forward to some 40's for a reprieve!
354. elioe
Quoting 351. ILwthrfan:

GFS is a bit more tame and takes Winston south of FIJI but with significant impacts...


Really, just a bit. 913 mbar in the nearest usable frame... Neither JTWC nor Nadi seem to hold these models in high regard.
Quoting 352. LuckySD:

Morning all. Hope everyone had an enjoyable weekend. Heavy fog in the area this morning, should burn off here in the next hour or two. Chance of some wintry mix tonight but then after that going to turn into a pretty mild week. Knowing this area it will give me enough of a taste for spring to get my hopes up just for another blizzard to come in and bring me back down to earth.




Yep, no snow boots for me today, maybe Wednesday with a low of 19. I guess it will depend on how sloppy the sidewalks are.
CPC weekly update of 2/15/16 has Nino 3.4 down to 2.5C.The big question that continues to be asked is how fast El Nino will go away in the next few months as mixed signals continue to be present.In the update,they say when it comes to the CFSv2 forecast,El Nino will continue thru most of 2016 while other models are more aggressive with the demise.I guess the words "Time will tell" applies here.

CPC Weekly Update

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES FALLING TO NEAR A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES IN A
FEW SPOTS UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
CAD firmly in place. We have light freezing rain/drizzle with embedded sleet showers. temp is 24F dewpoint 21F with a NE wind at 10. It is a skating rink out there, and people want to go drive. Wrecks everywhere! I will never understand why they think it's a good idea to drive on ice.
Quoting 354. elioe:



Really, just a bit. 913 mbar in the nearest usable frame... Neither JTWC nor Nadi seem to hold these models in high regard.



It's almost impossible to have only 100 knot winds with a 913 mb pressure? Usually it would around 120-140 knots for that pressure? I did notice mine is on the MSLP and yours is full resolution surface pressure but I can't find that image anywhere on the model runs. I'm looking at the data in your image and these should be identical and are for one exception. Why is your image at 913 mb? The one I am reading is showing 972mb. Both were from the 06z GFS. I may not be doing something correctly?



JTWC is notorious for underestimating intensities of typhoons. I only noticed two models taking this route with a hard left turn into FIJI. Seems to be a high uncertainty with this one. Models are all over the place.
That is some stubborn cold air that will take some time to scour out. I think this could be a serious icing threat greater than 1/4" for interior VA, especially in valleys where the cold air is just going to hang on. Hopefully you warm enough later today to get melting on road and walkway surfaces.

Quoting 358. Chapelhill:

CAD firmly in place. We have light freezing rain/drizzle with embedded sleet showers. temp is 24F dewpoint 21F with a NE wind at 10. It is a skating rink out there, and people want to go drive. Wrecks everywhere! I will never understand why they think it's a good idea to drive on ice.
Quoting 355. Qazulight:



Yep, no snow boots for me today, maybe Wednesday with a low of 19. I guess it will depend on how sloppy the sidewalks are.
Probably pretty sloppy. Was out and about yesterday and even with the high only around 25 parking lots and roads were a mess. Doubt there will be any snow coverage left after this weekend.
Quoting 354. elioe:



Really, just a bit. 913 mbar in the nearest usable frame... Neither JTWC nor Nadi seem to hold these models in high regard.



Now I see where you got that...LOL

I NEED MORE COFFEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 271. whitewabit:

Sad News

Damon Klein lost his battle this morning .. He taught under privileged children for many years before becoming ill .. was a long time blogger here back at the start of the blogs in 2005 .. I met him on a trip to Florida many years ago .. he had a great sense of humor ..

Rest in Peace Damon .. you are missed already !!
Thanks for posting that wab. And leave us not forget Damon was the only duly elected King of the WU Blogs - for the 2006 Mardi Gras party.

RIP, Damon.
Front right off the coast, already at a higher temperature than we hit all weekend.



Quoting 309. Climate175:

Looks like that forecast be a reality soon, which would be April. Depends on how rainy April is though.


Well Pux Phil saw no shadow cast..
D.C is now under a winter storm warning.Seems the heavy snow bands caught many off guard.They now forecast 4-6 for D.C with some locally higher amounts possible.Down in southern MD they were suppose to get 1-2 inches...now they're looking at 8-12 inches of snow.
That's how it goes when it snows.
:)
Quoting 364. Barefootontherocks:

Thanks for posting that wab. And leave us not forget Damon was the only duly elected King of the WU Blogs - for the 2006 Mardi Gras party.

RIP, Damon.


He was one of the most caring human being I have ever met .. A great loss for us ..

A unanimous choice for Mardi Gras King !!
369. JRRP
Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12
Ecmwf shows #ElNino going to neutral by late Spring w/ #LaNina possibly starting over the Summer


370. Tcwx2
Wow, check out all of those storms starting to fire in MS! I didn't see that coming especially at this 60F. It's definitely warming up though here in south AL.
Sun starting to peek out over parts of the Gulf but the strong t-storm risk is slight for the Gulf later today:


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 930 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...AND HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

...CORFIDI
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1010 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1001 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 936 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 928 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 909 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 901 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 811 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
372. Patrap
11:19 AM EST on February 15, 2016
That watch that was just issued was after the 8:51 am (EST) chart below that they issued this morning.................................. :)

Quoting 370. Tcwx2:

Wow, check out all of those storms starting to fire in MS! I didn't see that coming especially at this 60F. It's definitely warming up though here in south AL.
The temperature is starting to rise here, up to 62 now with some breaks in the overcast occasional sunny periods. The dewpoint is also up to 53, so the ingredients for at least some thunderstorms later this afternoon are on track. Mobile, over in the warm sector, is up to 71, and SW AL stands the best chance of seeing any severe storms. We should be right on the edge of the best dynamics, but that can shift around depending on how much sun we get. The south wind is also starting to pick up, at 9 mph average and 16 mph gusts. I'd be a lot happier not to see any sun right now. There's a tornado watch now for south MS and LA, and I expect that will be extended over to SW AL by about 2:00 or so. Nothing to do now but keep a watch on the sky and an ear on the weather radio.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1031 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1028 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
I have about a good 4 inches outside.Its light and powdery so its easy to shovel or sweep.
Doug Kamerer upped the forecast from 3-5 to 6-8 for D.C
Quoting 332. LargoFl:

real cold up in the northeast this morning..................................


Better than yesterday!
316  
WFUS54 KJAN 151659  
TORJAN  
MSC049-151800-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0023.160215T1659Z-160215T1800Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1059 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL NOON CST  
 
* AT 1058 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RAYMOND...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
RAYMOND AROUND 1105 AM CST.  
JACKSON AROUND 1115 AM CST.  
CLINTON AROUND 1120 AM CST.  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
382. Tcwx2
It's much more than I expected. Current temp. here is 65 with 70% humidity making for a dew point of 55F. We have a sun/cloud mix right now with low level clouds racing by in the winds of 14 mph gusting to 22. I think the severe weather threat is much higher than previously expected. Barometer is down to 1008mb and dropping. I'm glad we are out of school today. Definitely keep a weather source handy.
Quoting 375. sar2401:

The temperature is starting to rise here, up to 62 now with some breaks in the overcast occasional sunny periods. The dewpoint is also up to 53, so the ingredients for at least some thunderstorms later this afternoon are on track. Mobile, over in the warm sector, is up to 71, and SW AL stands the best chance of seeing any severe storms. We should be right on the edge of the best dynamics, but that can shift around depending on how much sun we get. The south wind is also starting to pick up, at 9 mph average and 16 mph gusts. I'd be a lot happier not to see any sun right now. There's a tornado watch now for south MS and LA, and I expect that will be extended over to SW AL by about 2:00 or so. Nothing to do now but keep a watch on the sky and an ear on the weather radio.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1105 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1105 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
545  
WFUS54 KJAN 151710  
TORJAN  
MSC021-029-037-063-085-151815-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0025.160215T1710Z-160215T1815Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1110 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 PM CST  
 
* AT 1109 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MCNAIR...OR 20 MILES EAST OF NATCHEZ...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...   BLUE HILL AROUND 1135 AM CST.  
UNION CHURCH AROUND 1140 AM CST.  
MCBRIDE...PLEASANT HILL AND PEYTON AROUND 1145 AM CST.  
CASEYVILLE AROUND 1150 AM CST.  
ALLEN AROUND 1155 AM CST.  
BARLOW AROUND 1200 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3154 9107 3169 9114 3194 9069 3171 9049  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 242DEG 27KT 3163 9105  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
For those in Florida who wonder why convection sometimes weakens significantly before reaching the coast in the gulf, this really detailed discussion from Ruskin explains it very well, and also shows why forecasting in Florida can be very tricky. I only show the short term forecast, cause the whole discussion is too huge for the blog, lol.

927
FXUS62 KTBW 150838
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
338 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016


SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... KIND OF A COMPLEX/MESSY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE SHORT TERM...AS AN ILL-
DEFINED AND MUTLI-STAGE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION. THE
TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS TO EXIST IN THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THESE BANDS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY JUST END UP BEING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
SWATHS (COMPARED TO OTHERS) DUE MAINLY TO THE DECREASING OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE OMEGA FIELDS...AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL TRY TO PUT IT
ALL TOGETHER INTO A COHESIVE FORECAST.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THEREAFTER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION...AND A SLOW
TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE TROP COLUMN. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE/WAA REGIME WILL BE UNDERWAY MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE 295-315K SURFACES.
WITHIN THE LAYER FIELDS WE SEE INITIAL SATURATION DUE TO THIS
UPGLIDE OCCUR WITHIN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND THEN WORK DOWN AS
THE FIELDS EXPAND OVER THE FL PENINSULA. IT WILL BE RACE TO SEE IF
THE COLUMN MOISTURE BECOMES SUFFICIENT BEFORE...THE SYNOPTIC
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TO FURTHER
ENHANCE THE OVERALL LIFT. THE PHASING OF THESE FACTORS WILL
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY
REGION-WIDE AFTER 21Z...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY IF THE
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

THE SECOND AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHERE THINGS BECOME COMPLEX FOR
DIFFERENT REASONS. DURING THE EVENING HOURS WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
RATHER SOLID AND HEALTHY BAND OF CONVECTION OFF TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE ALL STRONG. HOWEVER...AS
THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT
WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. THE NEGATIVE TILT WILL
GUIDE THE SURFACE LOW TO INCREASE LATITUDE WITH TIME. SO...AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING FURTHER NORTHWARD...WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CONTINUING TO VEER. THIS VEERING WILL ACT TO
DECREASE THE FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING STAYING JUST NORTH MAY BEGIN A DECREASING TREND
IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT MOVING
INTO OUR AREA.
FOR STORMS THAT DO ARRIVE ALONG OUR COASTS...THERE
ARE SOME FACTORS IN PLACE TO SUGGEST A FEW MIGHT BE STRONG. SPC
HAS OUTLOOKED OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
STRONG STORMS. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...IT WOULD
SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS STAY JUST NORTH...BUT ITS
A CLOSE CALL. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM REACH
PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST...ALONG WITH THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF
THE 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE WIND FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED IMPRESSIVE...BUT THEY ARE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND RADAR TRENDS OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT REGARDLESS OF OVERALL
CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZATION.

SECOND COMPLICATING FACTOR: DO WE SEE A CONVECTIVE BLOWUP OVER THE
BAROCLINIC WARMER WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN LOOP CURRENT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE FRONT GETS TO OUR REGION? THIS SOMETIMES
OCCURS WITH SHORTWAVES SIMILAR TO THIS ONE. WHEN THIS OCCURS...TWO
THINGS HAPPEN. THIS CONVECTION GENERALLY HEADS EAST QUICKLY TOWARD
SOUTHERN FLORIDA/THE KEYS...WHILE CUTTING OFF INFLOW TO CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH...AND ALSO SENDING CONSIDERABLE LATENT HEATING INTO
THE MID-LEVELS STREAMING OVER OUR REGION. BOTH OF THESE IMPACTS
ARE NEGATIVES TO HEALTHY CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE...WE COULD SEE A
SPLIT WHERE BETTER CONVECTION PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. SEVERAL OF THE HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO IT CAN NOT BE IGNORED.
OK...YOU GET THE POINT. NOT AN EASY FORECAST. NO FORECAST IS EVER
PERFECT...AND THIS IS SIMPLY A SITUATION THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY.

LUCKILY AFTER TUESDAY MORNING...THE PATTERN QUIETS DOWN AND
BECOMES MUCH MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD FOR A FEW DAYS.

SPEAKING OF TUESDAY...SHOWERS END DURING THE MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXIT THE REGION. SURFACE
RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER...AND ITS PASSAGE WILL NOT HAVE THE
POST-IMPACT THAT HAS BEEN SEEN RECENTLY WITH PREVIOUS FRONTS. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO STILL REACH
THE 70S OVER THE INLAND ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE SHELF WATERS.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 1117 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1116 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1110 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1108 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
Quoting 375. sar2401:

The temperature is starting to rise here, up to 62 now with some breaks in the overcast occasional sunny periods. The dewpoint is also up to 53, so the ingredients for at least some thunderstorms later this afternoon are on track. Mobile, over in the warm sector, is up to 71, and SW AL stands the best chance of seeing any severe storms. We should be right on the edge of the best dynamics, but that can shift around depending on how much sun we get. The south wind is also starting to pick up, at 9 mph average and 16 mph gusts. I'd be a lot happier not to see any sun right now. There's a tornado watch now for south MS and LA, and I expect that will be extended over to SW AL by about 2:00 or so. Nothing to do now but keep a watch on the sky and an ear on the weather radio.


Yeah this system doesn't have particularly impressive low level moisture return or low level instability yet, but mid level lapse rates are very impressive with this system, which will help make up for that. Also, the low level moisture is issue is only lacking for now, but will change quickly as time allows moisture fields to improve.
I thought winter was over! My trip is the 26th! So I hope this is wrong! Opps here's the real one

Quoting 382. Tcwx2:

It's much more than I expected. Current temp. here is 65 with 70% humidity making for a few point of 55F. We have a sun/cloud mix right now with low level clouds racing by in the winds of 14 mph gusting to 22. I think the severe weather threat is much higher than previously expected. Barometer is down to 1008mb and dropping. I'm glad we are out of school today. Definitely keep a weather source handy.
Yeah, the wind is really starting to howl over here, with sustained of 20 and gusts to 31 mph. My barometer is only down to 1014 mb, so it's either much lower there already or your barometer is a little off. Since the official reading at Andalusia is 1014.5, I suspect your barometer might need to be recalibrated. Regardless, it's been dropping like a rock, down 7 mb since midnight. The temperature here is 66 and 70 in Andalusia, and the dewpoint here is also 55. It's the sun causing the temperature to rise faster and more than predicted that may be setting us up for a better chance of severe weather this afternoon and evening. All the more intense storms are still west in MS and LA as shown on the lightning map. I really wish we'd get some clouds and kill this sun before too much longer.

Quoting 369. JRRP:

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12
Ecmwf shows #ElNino going to neutral by late Spring w/ #LaNina possibly starting over the Summer





CFSv2 is well contrary from ECMWF on the demise of El Nino and in fact it mantains it thru most of 2016.Which model will be right is the big question that for sure will be answered in the next few months.



Quoting 388. washingtonian115:

I thought winter was over! My trip is the 26th! So I hope this is wrong!


I hope it's wrong too, but I hope it's bigger than that :)
Quoting 354. elioe:



Really, just a bit. 913 mbar in the nearest usable frame... Neither JTWC nor Nadi seem to hold these models in high regard.



Well it's the JTWC, their forecasts are often too conservative, as well as their intensity estimates.
Quoting 387. Jedkins01:



Yeah this system doesn't have particularly impressive low level moisture return or low level instability yet, but mid level lapse rates are very impressive with this system, which will help make up for that. Also, the low level moisture is issue is only lacking for now, but will change quickly as time allows moisture fields to improve.
Given my increasing wind and rapidly dropping pressure, it appears the surface low in north MS may be deepening a little more quickly that the models forecast. The temperature and dewpoint have also come up faster than forecast. There's already more established convection in MS than I thought we'd see by this time of day. The models were slowing the system down earlier, but that doesn't seem to be the case now. The squall line wasn't supposed to be over here until after dark. Now it looks more like about 5:00, and we have the sun to provide some extra daytime heating. Combined with the already steep lapse rate, the result may be more widespread severe storms than the SPC was forecasting.
Quoting 391. 1Zach1:


I hope it's wrong too, but I hope it's bigger than that :)
According to the GFS blocking will be in place for this storm with cold air pumping in.Perhaps its a glitch as this was the same model predicting 60's for next Wednesday not to long ago...
Quoting 391. 1Zach1:


I hope it's wrong too, but I hope it's bigger than that :)
The trouble with winter is it usually lasts all winter. :-)
Quoting 369. JRRP:

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12
Ecmwf shows #ElNino going to neutral by late Spring w/ #LaNina possibly starting over the Summer



Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3h3 hours ago
February ECMWF seasonal forecast brings the La Nina by summer, but no clear signal for low pressure in the tropics:
397. Tcwx2
Agreed. Tornado warning about to cross the MS/AL line. Starting to see some black clouds now that are vertically developed here. With all of the lightning it is going to get very loud for me because I live at a high point with tall pines all around. Might as go ahead and unplug!
Quoting 393. sar2401:

Given my increasing wind and rapidly dropping pressure, it appears the surface low in north MS may be deepening a little more quickly that the models forecast. The temperature and dewpoint have also come up faster than forecast. There's already more established convection in MS than I thought we'd see by this time of day. The models were slowing the system down earlier, but that doesn't seem to be the case now. The squall line wasn't supposed to be over here until after dark. Now it looks more like about 5:00, and we have the sun to provide some extra daytime heating. Combined with the already steep lapse rate, the result may be more widespread severe storms than the SPC was forecasting.
Quoting 390. Tropicsweatherpr:



CFSv2 is well contrary from ECMWF on the demise of El Nino and in fact it mantains it thru most of 2016.Which model will be right is the big question that for sure will be answered in the next few months.




Yes and the CFSv2 is as good as the GFS, as they are more wrong than right, and are both garbage.
GFS shows about 22 inches of snow for D.C next week as the NAO will turn negative with another shot of arctic air from the polar vortex.
780  
WFUS54 KLIX 151744  
TORLIX  
LAC037-125-MSC005-157-151815-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0012.160215T1744Z-160215T1815Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1144 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 PM CST  
 
* AT 1144 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPILLMAN...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF JACKSON...  
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR..WILSON AND NORWOOD AROUND 1200 PM CST.   CENTREVILLE AROUND 1205 PM CST.  
FELPS AROUND 1215 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3095 9132 3108 9131 3115 9090 3086 9090  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 271DEG 23KT 3100 9123  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
419  
WUUS54 KMOB 151746  
SVRMOB  
ALC129-MSC041-153-151830-  
/O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0014.160215T1746Z-160215T1830Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1146 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST  
 
* AT 1145 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST  
OF STATE LINE...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF LEAKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CHATOM...STATE LINE...MILLRY...FRUITDALE AND SAINT STEPHENS.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY  
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE  
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
MISSISSIPPI.  
 
LAT...LON 3170 8827 3170 8809 3166 8808 3166 8809  
3164 8809 3162 8807 3160 8808 3159 8806  
3158 8803 3157 8803 3157 8804 3156 8802  
3154 8802 3123 8857 3137 8870  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 231DEG 31KT 3135 8857  
 
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
BUTTS  
 
Quoting 399. Neapolitan:

Someday someone--perhaps a kindly mod?--will tell us how an animated GIF of a dog is somehow relevant to the forum and thus allowable, yet comments discussing the selection of the next Supreme Court justice--who will decide on cases having to do with how America responds to the massive and ongoing threat posed by climate change--are "political crap" deserving of deletion.

Anyone? Anyone?


I've given up trying to make sense of how the blog is moderated, but I'll take a stab at this one. I wasn't here to see the "discussion" regarding the next Supreme Court justice, but my guess is it quickly devolved into nothing resembling a discussion. An animated GIF of a dog isn't likely to spur the same type of arguments. Just my take on it. I would prefer if unrelated GIFs and images weren't posted for the benefit of those of us who view the blog at work.
Quoting 325. Neapolitan:

Oh, poor little Joe. All that expensive schooling from Penn State, and he still struggles with the difference between climate and weather? One can't help but wonder whether he may have missed a class semester. Or two.


What this does show is that education isn't the end all be all. If people don't want to believe something, they won't believe it, and if people want to believe something, they will believe it. Increasingly so we have a culture that sees college and education as a whole as just a series of annoying hoops to jump through in order to get the job desired. I've ran into plenty of people that despise what they learn in college, and think it's useless and they are only there with hopes to make more money. There are simply too many college graduates that think certain concrete science is a conspiracy and/or a political invention.

I'm not saying that accounts for most people by any means, as I don't know how many people view college that way, but it is a growing trend from my experience. It's likely Joe did indeed experience plenty of eye opening proof that shows the the Earth is warming by human causes, he just ignored and scoffed at the professors in his mind. I'm taking a course called atmospheric physics 2 this semester, it's a 4000 level course on radiation and satellite meteorology, the class has an area we cover that gives clear and obvious proof that human added green houses gasses is warming the Earth through energy budget mathematics. He must have simply ignored this information.


well this isn't good


G8 looks to be just as bad a rotation as the one below, G8 has become a SRM, a severe right mover.



*&^*&^&^%*Y(*()**
86  
WFUS54 KJAN 151758  
TORJAN  
MSC029-077-085-127-151900-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0027.160215T1758Z-160215T1900Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1158 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
WESTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CST  
 
* AT 1158 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LOYD STAR...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
BROOKHAVEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  BROOKHAVEN AROUND 1205 PM CST.  
WESSON AND MARTINSVILLE AROUND 1215 PM CST.  
ROCKPORT AND OMA AROUND 1235 PM CST.  
UNION AROUND 1245 PM CST.  
SHIVERS AND HARRISVILLE AROUND 1250 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
GEORGETOWN AND BEAUREGARD.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3158 9055 3171 9066 3201 9004 3177 8991  
3176 8994 3176 8997 3175 8998  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 243DEG 35KT 3165 9056  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1200 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST  
 
* AT 1159 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH  
OF LATIMER...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF ST. MARTIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR  
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
MISSISSIPPI.
88 minutes of Warned cells. review.


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1200 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1158 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1150 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1146 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1144 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1138 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1133 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1131 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 1117 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1116 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1110 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1108 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1105 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1105 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1059 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1056 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1031 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1028 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
Quoting 372. Patrap:


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 930 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...AND HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

...CORFIDI
Just issued a tornado watch for my neck of the woods. It's about two hours earlier than I expected it, and probably four hours earlier than expected this morning.

417. Fallz
Still spitting snow here in Woodbridge, VA however it seems to be tapering off. Looks like between 4-5 inches of accumulation so far. Still waiting for the sleet and freezing rain as forecasted. Had a bit of grapple earlier but it changed back to snow. Could be an interesting commute in the AM.
Discussion about the Supreme Court or other political matters is welcome on my blog. When such discussion happens on Dr, Master's blog, ignore that. It will end.
Is it getting warmer and more humid down there Sar?
Quoting 211. Patrap:

A Special shout out to my Daughter Samantha who turns 25 today.

Happy Valentines Birthday to you!

Oh she's my baby, Let me tell you why
Hey, she drives me crazy, She's the apple of my eye
'Cause she is my girl, And she can never do wrong
If I dream too much at night, Somebody please bring me down




Don't worry washi the mods let this stand yesterday. I will not say they play favorites here but something does not pass the smell test
421. Tcwx2
It's sticky down here. 67F. Check out all of those rotating storms in southwestern AL I counted 15 of them but not quite strong enough for warnings yet.
Quoting 416. sar2401:

Just issued a tornado watch for my neck of the woods. It's about two hours earlier than I expected it, and probably four hours earlier than expected this morning.


.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AROUND DAYBREAK...GUIDANCE PLACES THE NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENDED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH PWATS IN THE 1 INCH TO 1.25 INCHES
RANGE...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE...HEAVY IN NATURE AT TIMES. SEVERE WEATHER WISE...WEAKER
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH COLDER SEA TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF ANY
DIURNAL HEATING GIVEN EARLY ONSET OF ACTIVITY WILL RESTRICT
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WILL NOTE THE HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE OF AROUND 50 KTS AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
NOTED BY THE 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES OF UP TO AROUND 200 M2/S2
POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...INTERMITTENT DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WFUS54 KLIX 151813  
TORLIX  
LAC037-091-105-MSC005-151845-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0014.160215T1813Z-160215T1845Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1213 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHERN AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1245 PM CST  
 
* AT 1212 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FELPS...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GILLSBERG AROUND 1235 PM CST.  
 OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
TANGIPAHOA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3110 9055 3100 9055 3100 9053 3088 9050  
3089 9097 3110 9102 3121 9057  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 260DEG 32KT 3103 9089  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
Good afternoon. Umm, tornado outbreak for some? Good luck!

Meanwhile the trough over western Europe became really GRAND! Look at the current airmass pic below (from 6 pm UTC) with all this cold red/orange/purple air digging deep into North Africa (swath of red: the polar jetstream). Snow down the way to Morocco and Algeria. While Greece and eastern European countries enjoyed a summerly day due to the luggage of warm air the jetstream brought back on its way north! However, uneventfull weather for me mid Germany, although the clouds probably at the border of airmasses looked interesting today.






View from my office window in Mainz today looking NNW. This boundary of clouds didn't move for hours. Beyond, I think, there was snowfall or at least colder air. Not for me though as temps stayed well above freezing.
Quoting 421. Tcwx2:

It's sticky down here. 67F. Check out all of those rotating storms in southwestern AL I counted 15 of them but not quite strong enough for warnings yet.
There's a warned cell just to your west on I-65 headed toward Evergreen and Georgiana. There's another cell to the west of that. As you say, there are a number of rotating cells. Most of them kind of pulse up and down and don't look particularly threatening...yet. Just keep a watch on the radar since we won't get a lot of warning before a tornado today. At least my bold forecast of no snow looks like it will come true. :-)

EDIT: EMA confirmed tornado on the ground west of you. No threat to you from this one.
The NOAA SPC folks have been right on timing and disco's as the MD"s all morning have all shown the threat increasing.

The Local MESO info has shown it graphical on the button.

Inbound boomer.

Quoting 419. BaltimoreBrian:

Is it getting warmer and more humid down there Sar?
Yes, up to 69 now, with a dewpoint of 57. These are the kinds of days I really hate since we see tornadoes form really quickly. Fortunately, they also tend to dissipate quickly, but the darn things can be just about on top of you before a warning comes out. In my experience, even the Supreme Court can't help on a day like this. :-)
430. Tcwx2
Haha congratulations. That is a confirmed tornado north of Evergreen.
Quoting 425. sar2401:

There's a warned cell just to your west on I-65 headed toward Evergreen and Georgiana. There's another cell to the west of that. As you say, there are a number of rotating cells. Most of them kind of pulse up and down and don't look particularly threatening...yet. Just keep a watch on the radar since we won't get a lot of warning before a tornado today. At least my bold forecast of no snow looks like it will come true. :-)
425  
WUUS54 KMOB 151824  
SVRMOB  
ALC003-025-099-151900-  
/O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0015.160215T1824Z-160215T1900Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1224 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CST  
 
* AT 1223 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF  
URIAH...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
MONROEVILLE...FRISCO CITY...MEGARGEL AND URIAH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY  
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE  
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN  
ALABAMA.  
 
LAT...LON 3156 8725 3123 8757 3124 8759 3124 8762  
3118 8762 3116 8764 3125 8782 3169 8759  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 210DEG 37KT 3127 8769  
 
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
BUTTS  
 
104  
WFUS54 KJAN 151826  
TORJAN  
MSC007-159-151930-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0029.160215T1826Z-160215T1930Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1226 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
WINSTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 130 PM CST  
 
* AT 1226 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RENFROE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
EDINBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
ZAMA AROUND 1235 PM CST.  
LOUISVILLE AROUND 100 PM CST.  
MILLCREEK AND BETHEDEN AROUND 110 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
NOXAPATER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3293 8911 3293 8953 3296 8953 3329 8882  
3298 8881  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 246DEG 43KT 3291 8947  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
19  
 
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977  
WUUS54 KLIX 151827  
SVRLIX  
LAC033-037-077-125-151900-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0017.160215T1827Z-160215T1900Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1227 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CST  
 
* AT 1227 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW  
ROADS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ZACHARY...NEW ROADS...JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE AND SLAUGHTER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY  
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE  
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA.  
 
LAT...LON 3075 9147 3086 9107 3061 9099 3066 9133  
3065 9131 3060 9135 3060 9145  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 257DEG 31KT 3068 9137  
 
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
MJH  
 
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M7 stumbling and rumblin in.

Log off for safety


About 2.5" of snow here. All is accumulating since it is 25 and was very cold over the weekend.

Quoting 425. sar2401:

There's a warned cell just to your west on I-65 headed toward Evergreen and Georgiana. There's another cell to the west of that. As you say, there are a number of rotating cells. Most of them kind of pulse up and down and don't look particularly threatening...yet. Just keep a watch on the radar since we won't get a lot of warning before a tornado today. At least my bold forecast of no snow looks like it will come true. :-)

EDIT: EMA confirmed tornado on the ground west of you. No threat to you from this one.


The HRRR model is showing a nasty squall line hitting the west coast of FL around 3:00 AM. This system seems to be stronger than anticipated as FL was not supposed to get much out of this. Good luck today.

If you see something you don't like VOTE.. Or Move Along Nothing to See here....
Yousa, finally get to log in. Something was very wrong on this site for over two weeks. Posts were out of order and I wanted to ++++++++++++++++ The Doc on Patricia. Miss Piggy has my love:) As I remember... some planes were out of order to do this at the time. Amazing job that these people do.

Snow is flying here in SE Berks Co.
439. elioe
Watching these model runs showing incredibly low central pressures begins to remind me of Pam.



This time, GFS spares Fiji, bringing the worst to Tongatapu instead...

Still 35F here and 27F in Charlotte. Cold air eroding slowly. Will be interesting to see how warm we get by sunset. There is about a 45F degree difference between Charlotte, NC and the FL panhandle.

Quoting 416. sar2401:

Just issued a tornado watch for my neck of the woods. It's about two hours earlier than I expected it, and probably four hours earlier than expected this morning.


Current webcam of Baltimore Inner Harbor. Note that unlike last year, there is no ice in the harbor despite the extreme cold over the weekend. The warm December lives on. Last year the harbor was frozen through mid March.
Well, I am hoping for an all snow event here in Western NY, but I am right on the boundary. I mean smack on the rain/snow line according to models for tonight and tomorrow. My elevation may help with the snow, but that warm air aloft thing always messes me up.

From bone-chilling cold (daytime all weekend did not get out of the single-digits) to this messy junk.
Follow my weather station:
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=KNYEASTB2#history

Interestingly the weather models on WU keep toggling between snow and rain each time I load my location. How often do the models update? I go from 12-18in totals to 1-3in of ice/rain, back to 12-18in.

I think I will stay home tomorrow rather than take the chance. At least I will get to watch it from the comfort of home rather than the uncomfort of the car.
Quoting 322. BaltimoreBrian:

Denn das Schoene ist nichts als des Schrecklichen Anfang, das wir kaum in der Lage sind, zu ertragen. Und es erstaunt uns so, weil es gelassen davon absieht, uns zu zerstoeren. Ein jeder Engel ist schrecklich.

Ah, a fan of Rilke and his precious Duino Elegies? And even weather related, lol, quote from wiki:
With a sudden, renewed inspiration - writing in a frantic pace he described as a "boundless storm, a hurricane of the spirit" - he completed the collection in February 1922 ...

English translation of the one which was quoted by Brian, although not very precise.
Here my feeble take: For beauty is just the beginning of terror we can barely endure. And we're so astonished as it coolly desists from destroying us. Every angel is scary.
Really apt for beautiful hurricanes and their lot!
Quoting 441. BaltimoreBrian:

Current webcam of Baltimore Inner Harbor. Note that unlike last year, there is no ice in the harbor despite the extreme cold over the weekend. The warm December lives on. Last year the harbor was frozen through mid March.


I am not sure I would classify it as extreme cold, looks like the inner harbor station got to 13f and the airport 9f.
Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:



The HRRR model is showing a nasty squall line hitting the west coast of FL around 3:00 AM. This system seems to be stronger than anticipated as FL was not supposed to get much out of this. Good luck today.
It's certainly faster and stronger over here than expected. Mobile is giving out warnings like yesterday's lottery tickets. I guess it depends on how unstable the airmass remains as it gets to land in central Florida. I'm up to 71 now, and the south wind is still howling. The cells are forming quickly in this strong onshore flow, and we're now getting 30,000 to 32,000 foot storms as well. Going to be an interesting day.
Quoting 440. HaoleboySurfEC:

Still 35F here and 27F in Charlotte. Cold air eroding slowly. Will be interesting to see how warm we get by sunset. There is about a 45F degree difference between Charlotte, NC and the FL panhandle.


I'd bet on the high end of the forecast at least. My high was supposed to be 68 and I'm already three over that. The onshore flow is a lot stronger and warmer than forecast, and that should reach you late this afternoon.
Hi guys any models predicting when North American temps will get back to seasonal?
Looking at the temps in the mountains and foothill cities and its shocking....I mean a thaw ya but this has been ages.
Current reports in per SPC (not counting the 5 tornado warnings currently on the doppler loops across LA, MS and AL):

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
last3hours Reports Graphic



Looks like some supercells are forming in the Gulf

Quoting 445. sar2401:

It's certainly faster and stronger over here than expected. Mobile is giving out warnings like yesterday's lottery tickets. I guess it depends on how unstable the airmass remains as it gets to land in central Florida. I'm up to 71 now, and the south wind is still howling. The cells are forming quickly in this strong onshore flow, and we're now getting 30,000 to 32,000 foot storms as well. Going to be an interesting day.

Sitting at about 71 down here in Baldwin county, basically every storm that forms up is rotating, Northern Washington county has basically been under 5-6 different torando warnings since noon, those storms are Training just north of Chatom & speeding NE toward Thomasville. What a day!!!!! Hope everyone stays safe.
Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:



The HRRR model is showing a nasty squall line hitting the west coast of FL around 3:00 AM. This system seems to be stronger than anticipated as FL was not supposed to get much out of this. Good luck today.

Quoting 449. tampabaymatt:

Looks like some supercells are forming in the Gulf




Yeah this system is no joke. Severe production is more impressive with this event so far than the last couple where the SPC had an enhanced risk and total coverage was more like a marginal event. My guess it's because it wasn't long ago the models really backed off on intensity, and only last night into today did they show it being more potent again, that leads to a lower confidence forecast.

The main driver of severe weather is steep mid level lapse rates as well as drier air in the mid levels, shear profiles are also more favorable for discrete cells. This allows for vigorous and intense updrafts. As the system progresses east, the shear profiles will veer more linear, so the threat of rotating cells decreases, also the surface low as it pulls north will decrease frontal convergence and low level jet speed. That lowers the threat as it heads into Florida. However, low level moisture will be a lot higher as well as warmer surface temps and higher dew points as it gets into Florida. Mid level lapse rates will still be relatively steep along with a continued mid level dry slot. This will still promote vigorous updraft potential, so convection could still be strong from here in the Big Bend into Central Florida despite weakening dynamics by then. The hi-res HRRR has picked up on this, and is substantially superior to the global models for short term convective trends. For that reason, I would focus more on what the HRRR shows rather than the WPC rainfall which is based heavily on the GFS which had a pretty meager line moving across Florida.

The HRRR due to it's superior high resolution and rapid updates out performs global models consistently on short term thunderstorm/convective forecasts.

Overall though, the SPC responded quick to rapid forecast change, as of just yesterday afternoon, model guidance suggested no more than a thin band of showers from here to Central Florida, now it looks more like organized thunderstorms with a few being strong. I think the forecast of marginal risk is accurate given departing dynamics.
452. Tcwx2
Very dark, ominous clouds off to the west. It just has a bad feel to it.
Quoting 445. sar2401:

It's certainly faster and stronger over here than expected. Mobile is giving out warnings like yesterday's lottery tickets. I guess it depends on how unstable the airmass remains as it gets to land in central Florida. I'm up to 71 now, and the south wind is still howling. The cells are forming quickly in this strong onshore flow, and we're now getting 30,000 to 32,000 foot storms as well. Going to be an interesting day.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC035-053-151945-
/O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0022.160215T1918Z-160215T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
118 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 118 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR I65 AND AL
41...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BREWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CASTLEBERRY...I65 AND AL 41 AND I65 AND CR 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&
I don't know if the second year of strong El Nino years is associated with increased early season tornado activity in the southern US, but this is an interesting snippet from Wiki:

The 1998 Kissimmee tornado outbreak of February 22–23, 1998, was a devastating tornado outbreak, the deadliest tornado event in Florida history, that is sometimes known as The Night of the Tornadoes. Affecting the I-4 corridor of Central Florida, including the Greater Orlando area, the tornadoes—among the strongest ever recorded in Florida—produced F3 (in some cases, near-F4) damage, killed 42 people, and caused 260 injuries
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

TORNADO WATCH 15 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-650-655-750-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0015.160215T1800Z-160216T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

NORTH MOBILE BAY

SOUTH MOBILE BAY

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

PERDIDO BAY AREA

PENSACOLA BAY AREA

CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

$$
ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...
It has stopped snowing here.Ice to come later on...
stay alert up there Jedkins thru tonight........................................... ...TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

TORNADO WATCH 15 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-160300 -
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0015.160215T1800Z-160216T0300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY &nbs p; CALHOUN & nbsp; ESCAMBIA
GULF &nb sp; ; HOLMES &n bsp; JACKSON
OKALOOSA ; SANTA ROSA &nbs p; WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$

Quoting 454. yonzabam:

I don't know if the second year of strong El Nino years is associated with increased early season tornado activity in the southern US, but this is an interesting snippet from Wiki:

The 1998 Kissimmee tornado outbreak of February 22–23, 1998, was a devastating tornado outbreak, the deadliest tornado event in Florida history, that is sometimes known as The Night of the Tornadoes. Affecting the I-4 corridor of Central Florida, including the Greater Orlando area, the tornadoes—among the strongest ever recorded in Florida—produced F3 (in some cases, near-F4) damage, killed 42 people, and caused 260 injuries
El Nino years (and particularly a weakening one) produce the most tornadoes in the spring.  Also, Florida records more deaths than tornado alley in any given tornado outbreak year.  Might be a function of the fact that many residents in the alley hear the sirens and many have shelters for tornadoes.  Florida has a lot of retiree's that live in mobile homes and other than TV or Noaa radio warnings, I am not sure if we have tornado "sirens" in any part of Florida.
Please correct me if I am wrong; only sirens I remember in Florida were the nuclear attack "test" sirens from the tops of one downtown building back in the 60's.
Finally up to 30 F. We just had a convective type freezing rain shower; quick burst of big drops. The pines and red cedars are looking uncomfortable under the weight of the ice. Glad the wind is calm.
TORNADO WARNING
ALC025-129-152000-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0010.160215T1913Z-160215T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
113 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 113 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER CHATOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SAINT STEPHENS AROUND 130 PM CST.
GROVE HILL AND FULTON AROUND 200 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&
HRRR model for 3:00 AM this evening

Quoting 459. Chapelhill:

Finally up to 30 F. We just had a convective type freezing rain shower; quick burst of big drops. The pines and red cedars are looking uncomfortable under the weight of the ice. Glad the wind is calm.


Greensboro got about 2 inches of snow, not sure about ice accumulation though

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 900
PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...AND HAIL...EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WATCH
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MOBILE ALABAMA TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 14...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


stay alert and safe up there folks...............................MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN AND CNTRL AL...WRN
FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...15...

VALID 151951Z - 152145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14...15...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SRN LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MS INTO SRN AND
CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING 1005 MB LOW JUST
TO THE WEST OF MERIDIAN MS WITH A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AL. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CELLS IS ONGOING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
ZONE OF CONFLUENCE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING NEAR THE
SFC LOW EXTENDING SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH INTO SE LA. THE WARM SECTOR
IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS WWD INTO
SRN LA JUST AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. A 40 TO 60 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO NCNTRL AL. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EWD INTO SRN MS AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE
ERN PART OF WW 14 EWD ACROSS WW 15. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTAIN WIND DAMAGE AND HAVE
AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD
ALSO PERSIST AS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOVES SEWD INTO SE LA AND FAR SRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 02/15/2016
Quoting 462. win1gamegiantsplease:



Greensboro got about 2 inches of snow, not sure about ice accumulation though
At 3pm they are reporting light freezing drizzle snow fog/mist and 27 degrees. Radar showed a couple of heavier showers go across there. I'd be willing to say they are getting some icing now.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Evening and Tonight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Latest regional radar and satellite mosaics continue to show an
area of developing convection upstream across portions of SE
Louisiana, S Mississippi, and WC/SW Alabama. A few isolated storms
were also developing over the Gulf of Mexico around 70-100mi SW of
Panama City. There is fairly good agreement amongst a variety of
model guidance in progressing these storms into our forecast area
late this afternoon and this evening. Adjusting for what appears
to be about a slight 1-2 hour slow bias in the HRRR, which
otherwise seems to be depicting trends fairly well, this could
bring more vigorous storms into the western parts of our area as
early as 22Z or so. Upstream convection is exhibiting a variety of
convective modes, but generally organizing into several line
segments and clusters. This is expected to generally continue as
storms move east, and some convection-allowing models even show an
evolution toward one predominant squall line. PoPs were kept high
over the entire area (80-100%), with the highest rain chances from
around 00-02Z in the west to 05-07Z in the east.

Some severe storms still appear possible across our forecast area,
particularly in western or southwestern sections - roughly near or
south of a line from Elba AL, to Chipley FL, to Blountstown FL, to
St. George Island. To be clear, severe storms won`t necessarily be
limited entirely to the aforementioned area, that is just the
region with the greatest apparent threat. The overall intensity
of storms may diminish as they move further east in our area, due
to a stable layer of air near the cooler waters in and near
Apalachee Bay. This is evident in coastal observations along
Apalachee Bay with temperatures currently in the lower-60s.
Convection-allowing models seem to agree with this notion as most
depict an overall decrease in updraft velocities and surface wind
gusts once the storms arrive in the eastern half of our area.

Prior to that, though, conditions should be favorable for a few
severe storms over the western Florida Panhandle and perhaps
southeast Alabama. Low-level wind fields upstream near and just
ahead of the primary convective bands have been slightly stronger
than model consensus, and the low-level shear profile is only
forecast to improve around sunset. This may offset marginal
instability to produce a severe weather threat over a slightly
larger portion of the area than would otherwise be the case.
However, instability will still be key. So far in this event, most
severe reports upstream have been in areas with at least 59-60F
dewpoints. Looking at model forecasts, it seems as though
dewpoints at those levels could be a reasonable approximation of
the air mass that would be supportive of greater severe weather
probabilities. The main threats with any severe storm will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Large hail can`t be ruled
out either, due to slightly steeper than normal mid-level lapse
rates (there have been large hail reports upstream with some
supercells).
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1200 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016

...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

.SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTHERN CASCADES WEDNESDAY MORNING,
SPREADING INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 6500 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. UP TO
2 FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PASSES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
468. Fallz
Raining now in Woodbridge, VA......Pretty steadily but haven't seen it freezing on contact yet....but that doesn't mean the roads are ok. I am at my apt observing from my deck.
Even with El nino CFS showing active atlantic.


ECMWF has la nina but a very quiet atlantic.

Current conditions at
Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)
Lat: 33.98NLon: -117.46WElev: 833ft.

Fair

84F

29C
Humidity 16%
Wind Speed N 14 G 28 MPH
Barometer 30.01 in (1014.4 mb)
Dewpoint 33F (1C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 81F (27C)
Last update 15 Feb 11:53 am PST

82.6F here, 81.1 @ Indian Hills,
A special radiosonde was released from Greensboro, NC at 1pm. It showed that the expected warm nose was faster and stronger (6C at 875mb) than what models forecasted. Also noted was the HRRR was doing an excellent job showing the near surface wet bulb freezing line as it moves to the NW across NC and VA. Looks like the HRRR got a good handle on the system. Be alert in the warm sector as night time makes severe weather difficult to see approaching.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-TUESDAY/...
VERY FLUID FORECAST SITUATION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE DRITING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SMALL SHOWERS
COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEFORE
SUNSET.

AFTER SUNSET...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WHERE CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR
THE REGION. INITIALLY...SOME DISCRETE CELLS MAY FORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE COAST AS THEY COULD POSE A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND
TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT. ALOFT...POTENT LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
JETS IN THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THAT COULD CYCLE OVER FAR DISTANCES.

THE PRIMARY INGREDIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THESE
STORMS ARE THE WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF. IF CONVECTION
FIRES OVER THE WARMER GULF LOOP CURRENT WATERS...IT COULD
POTENTIALLY CUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OFF FROM THE STRONG
CONVECTION. THE OTHER GULF WATER INHIBITOR IS THE COOL SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD UNDERMINE THE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO CELLS NEARING SHORE. THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A RISK TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY FLUID AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED! PLEASE FOLLOW FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING
AND HAVE MULTIPLE MEANS OF RECEIVING CRITICAL WEATHER INFORMATION
INCLUDING METHODS THAT CAN WAKE YOU IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.

BY MORNING...THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD HAVE EXITED EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH PEEKS
OF BLUE SKY EVENTUALLY COMING. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THE
RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID-
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STAY BELOW ANY
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
My Locale, Nola 76F

Baton Rouge currently 56F w/T-storm


20F spread, 65 miles
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 326 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 323 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 321 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
478. Tcwx2
Got one heading right for me if it holds up.
That stabilizing effect off the waters of Apalachee Bay, into the Florida Big Bend area, as noted by Tally NWS below is pretty established; many of these squall lines across North Florida hit hard in the Panhandle through Jackson County, die down a bit as they reach Leon and Gadsden Counties, then pick up again East of us as they head along I-10 towards Madison and points beyond on the way to I-75:



Quoting 469. Gearsts:

Even with El nino CFS showing active atlantic.


ECMWF has la nina but a very quiet atlantic.


Does the Euro show a dry Caribbean and MDR during the peak of the hurricane season with LA NINA in the Pacific ?

If yes, I really don't know what to think about that.... :(
PDS Warning

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 400 PM CST for south
central Escambia... north central Escambia and northwestern Santa Rosa
counties...

at 345 PM CST... a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over century... moving northeast at 35 mph.

This is a particularly dangerous situation.

Hazard... damaging tornado.

Source... law enforcement confirmed tornado.

Impact... you are in a life threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes...
businesses... and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Jay around 355 PM CST.
Brewton... East Brewton... Riverview and Pollard around 400 PM CST.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat... a large... extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is ${torground}. To protect your life... take cover now! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors... in a Mobile home... or in
a vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Stay tuned for further updates from your National Weather Service in
Mobile.


Lat... Lon 3119 8710 3098 8691 3082 8720 3097 8740
time... Mot... loc 2145z 231deg 32kt 3095 8727

Tornado... observed
tornado damage threat... considerable
hail... 1.25in


Butts
482. Tcwx2
If it holds up its gonna hit me.
Quoting 481. pipelines:

PDS Warning

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 400 PM CST for south
central Escambia... north central Escambia and northwestern Santa Rosa
counties...

at 345 PM CST... a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over century... moving northeast at 35 mph.

This is a particularly dangerous situation.

Hazard... damaging tornado.

Source... law enforcement confirmed tornado.

Impact... you are in a life threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes...
businesses... and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Jay around 355 PM CST.
Brewton... East Brewton... Riverview and Pollard around 400 PM CST.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat... a large... extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is ${torground}. To protect your life... take cover now! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors... in a Mobile home... or in
a vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Stay tuned for further updates from your National Weather Service in
Mobile.


Lat... Lon 3119 8710 3098 8691 3082 8720 3097 8740
time... Mot... loc 2145z 231deg 32kt 3095 8727

Tornado... observed
tornado damage threat... considerable
hail... 1.25in


Butts
 
056  
WFUS54 KMOB 152156  
TORMOB  
ALC035-053-152245-  
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0013.160215T2156Z-160215T2245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
356 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
EASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 445 PM CST  
 
* AT 356 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER POLLARD...OR NEAR FLOMATON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40  
MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...  
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
RIVERVIEW AROUND 405 PM CST.  
BREWTON AND EAST BREWTON AROUND 410 PM CST.  
US 29 AND CR 43 AROUND 430 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY  
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE  
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN  
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3100 8697 3100 8727 3105 8732 3145 8683  
3130 8670 3110 8670  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 230DEG 33KT 3104 8718  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
BUTTS  
 
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 359 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 356 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 352 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 348 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 210 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 337 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 226 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 225 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 326 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 323 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 321 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016