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Huge storm pounds Pacific Northwest with hurricane force winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:36 AM GMT on December 04, 2007

A powerful Pacific storm smashed ashore along the Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia coasts Monday, bringing hurricane force winds, torrential rains, and widespread flooding to the coast. Wind gusts over hurricane force (74 mph) were common along the coast, and one location, the aptly named Destruction Island in Washington, had sustained hurricane force winds (74 mph), with gusts to 93 mph. Winds gusting to 76 mph generated seas up to 48 feet high off the Oregon coast, and buoy 46050, 23 miles west of Newport, was torn from its mooring by 40 foot seas. Debris flow warnings have been posted for the steep mountain areas of the Oregon Coast Range near Tillamook. Debris flows are dangerous rapidly moving landslides. Rainfall amounts exceeding ten inches in the past day and a half have been measured in the North Oregon Coast Range. Rainfall amounts over a foot were estimated by the Seattle and Portland, OR radar (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Total rain from the Portland, OR radar for the Dec 3-5, 2007 storm.

Wind gusts exceeding hurricane force (74 mph) measured in OR and WA:

... Washington coast...
Cape Disappointment... ... ... ... ... ... .. 104 mph
Destruction Island... ... ... ... ... ... ... 93 mph
Toke Point (north end of Willapa Bay).. 75 mph

... North Oregon coast...
Bay City (near Tillamook)... ... ... ... ... 129 mph
Cape Meares (elev. 1500 ft)... ... ... ... 114 mph before power loss
Rockaway Beach... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 104 mph
Tillamook Bay tide gage... ... ... ... ... 100 mph
Astoria (west slope)... ... ... ... ... ... 86 mph (sust. 45-50 mph)
Clatsop Spit... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 86 mph (sust.70 mph)
Astoria Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ...... 85 mph
Garibaldi... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 81 mph
Youngs Bay... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 80 mph
Cannon Beach... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 80 mph
Tillamook (downtown)... ... ... ... ... ... 75 mph
Tillamook Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ... 74 mph

... Central Oregon coast...
Lincoln City... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 125 mph
Yaquina Hwy 101 bridge (Newport) ... ... 88 mph (sust. 45-50 mph)
Lincoln City (other report)... ... ... ... 85 mph
Newport Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 83 mph (sust. 58 mph)
Newport Jetty... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 82 mph
Sea Lion Caves... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 81 mph (sust. 40-45 mph)
Agate Beach... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 78 mph (lost power)
Hatfield Science Center... ... ... ... ... . 75 mph

... Oregon Coast Range...
Mt. Hebo... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 91 mph
Cedar RAWS... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 74 mph

... Cascade foothills...
Sugarloaf Mtn (SW of Oakridge)... ... ... 81 mph (sust. 35-40 mph)

... Cascades...
Timberline (elev. 7001 ft)... ... ... ... . 99 mph (sust. 60 mph)
Govt Camp Ski Bowl... ... ... ... ... ... ... 90 mph

The forecast
The storm, with a central pressure of 965 mb, is expected to move ashore Tuesday morning over the British Columbia coast and weaken. The strongest winds and heaviest rain have already past for the coast, but the inland Cascade Mountain range will see another 4-6 inches of rain by Tuesday afternoon. Flooding is possible Tuesday on all the rivers in western Washington and Oregon.

Jeff Masters
2 FEET!
2 FEET!
When I woke up this morning there was a good two feet of snow welcoming me! It's still coming down right now! I ♥ SNOW!
Bear Creek
Bear Creek
Bear Creek floods and covers the trail.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Strong Winds from the radar view
Seattle-Tacoma Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI Link

Radar,Seattle NEXRAD Radar
Link
NEXRAD Radar
Portland Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
Link


NEXRAD Radar
Portland Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Link
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
152 PM PST MON DEC 3 2007

...VERY LARGE OCEAN WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF
TO THE COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING..

ORZ021-022-040600-
/O.CAN.KMFR.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-071205T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071205T0500Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
152 PM PST MON DEC 3 2007

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY..
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
PST TUESDAY.

STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE GENERATED VERY LARGE
WAVES OF 30 TO 40 FEET ON THE OPEN OCEAN.
THIS HAS BEEN VERIFIED
BY SHIP REPORTS AND NEAR SHORE BUOYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COASTAL
FLOODING...HOWEVER...IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.

THESE VERY LARGE WAVES WILL CAUSE EXTREME BREAKING WAVES ON THE
COAST AND AREAS OF BEACH EROSION. HARBORS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES
IN LOW-LYING AREAS WILL SEE INCREASED TIDE HEIGHTS...STRONGER
THAN NORMAL CURRENTS...AND ABOVE NORMAL WAVE ACTION. INITIALLY
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES WILL BE MOST EFFECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST FACING SHORES TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES
WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE SURF ZONE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL EASILY TRANSPORT DEBRIS AND LIFT AND MOVE LARGE
OBJECTS...POSSIBLY SWEEPING THEM AWAY. IT IS ADVISED THAT PEOPLE
REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF ZONE AND OFF OF BEACHES AND JETTIES UNTIL
THESE LARGE WAVES SUBSIDE.

$$

LUTZ
Wow. We made the front page.
thanks, Dr. M.
Widespread flood warnings in Western WA
NWS Seattle Warnings


Four storm deaths and
Interstate 5 at Chehalis in SW WA expected to be closed for three days due to flooding.
Thank you Dr. Masters

Now which troll is going to post a gripe about not sticking to tropical weather? lol
My Dvorak T number of TD 04F based on the curved band pattern

Forgive me if my post are not about the Pacific Northwest Storm but I was already tracking it and keeping up-to-date with it throughout the day.
From the news link above.
-- Rain was falling at historical levels as well. As of 3 p.m., Seattle had 3.47 inches of rain -- making it the second wettest day in Sea-Tac history, with more rain falling.

-- Average seas of 46 feet, with some waves recorded as high as 70 feet have been recorded by offshore buoys off the north Oregon Coast. In fact, the weather buoy off the Columbia Bar became ripped from its tether and is now adrift in the Pacific.
Wow Dr.Masters thank you for the PAC West update love it look forward to your written updates with Weather456's picture updates!
And dang the Columbia Bar buoy has gone missing. Wonder how many years it'll take to find it. That was the best buoy to watch for incoming winds. That and Tillamook, OR.
An earlier image of the storm

Wow BF... that's some serious weather you guys are having!!!
Roger that, Foxxy.

I can't believe Dr. Masters is posting about the Pac NW in his blog. Bad dude storm and now bad dude flooding.
BF, you take care... looks nasty!
18. H2PV
http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct=us/1-0&fp=475466dca3fe6b7f&ei=cKhUR-DmIpveqwPR_LDPCA&url=ht tp%3A//www.beachconnection.net/news/stormd120307_438.php&cid=0

Oregon Coast Damage 'Worse Than Columbus Day Storm'

(Oregon Coast) – One coastal resident described it as “worse than the Columbus Day storm” and looking “like Hiroshima out there.”

With gusts over 100 mph, trees down everywhere you look, power out along almost the entire northern half of the Oregon coast, and major damage to property, the region is in the middle of what many consider the worst storm ever.

It was the first time the National Weather Service issued a warning for “hurricane-force winds” on the coast. And those expectations were met. Bay City, near Tillamook, reported a gust as high as 129 mph. Lincoln City reported 92, and Rockaway Beach recorded a gust of 104.

The result was power out from Astoria down to Depoe Bay – about 100 miles of coastline. Newport is intact, South Beach had power restored this afternoon, while Waldport and Yachats are still in the dark.

Waldport resident Jauna Brown said the PUD told her family on Sunday night it could be 48 hours before power might return there.

On the north coast, power officials said the main transmission lines into the area were all down. At least one tower, in the mountains, that carries those lines to the north coast is down. Officials say there could be more.

Phone lines are down on the entire north coast as well as in Lincoln City. Calls to those landlines are met with busy signals or an “all circuits are busy” message.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has continued the flood warnings for the Wilson, Trask, Nestucca, Siletz and Nehalem rivers. Minor flooding is forecast for these, which include the areas around Nehalem, Waldport, Lincoln City, Tillamook and various parts of northern Clatsop County.

Flooding has caused numerous closures all over the coast. Tillamook was closed off on all sides this afternoon. Other closures include just south of Seaside and Highways 6 and 26, and parts of Highway 18 close to Lincoln City.

Keith Chandler is manager of the Seaside Aquarium but lives in Astoria. He left Seaside early this morning to return home and make sure his family was safe. Via a cell phone call that was wrought with disruptions, Chandler told BeachConnection.net it was a brutal melee.

“It’s like Hiroshima out there,” Chandler said. “There are trees down everywhere. Siding is all over the place. The aquarium’s billboard on the north end of town is knocked over, and most road signs are gone. I think it’s worse than the Columbus Day Storm. There’s more damage.”
Waves hit the bottom of the stairway at Newport's Starfish Point

Chandler is worried about the power may be out for a whole week on the north coast.

“There’s one tower down that they know about,” he said. “But how many more are there? They don’t know, because they need a helicopter to get out there and survey the damage, and they can’t get one out there now.”


BeachConnection.net could not reach any of its correspondents that were not working in the Portland office.

Brown and her family watched in awe as various objects from the neighborhood went flying everywhere. “The neighbor’s house was losing siding and shingles all day, and now all the siding is gone,” she said. “A tree fell on our truck, but luckily there was no damage.”
Manzanita

Husband Jeff Brown was dealing with another tree that had fallen onto the couple’s power line going from the house to the pole. “It’s sagging and just dropped another ten feet, but it hasn’t snapped yet,” he said.

Jauna said they were watching a porta-potty across the street get knocked over and start moving. “We were watching that flying around and I kept hoping, ‘No, don’t land over here.’ It wound up wrapping around a tree, and there’s toilet paper everywhere.”

Newport, however, seemed impervious to any of the mess. Starfish Point manager Danielle Emerick said power didn’t go out there, although her net access has been gone for three days.

“We’re doing fine over here,” she said. “Newport never seems to get hit.”


Emerick added the surf was right up onto the bottom of the cliff below the hotel, and was sometimes climbing up the inn’s private stairway.

“The waves are moving from south to north,” Emerick said. “They’re getting blown so hard by the wind, you can see them get pushed from Nye Beach all the way up here to Agate Beach.”

Despite the mess, Chandler still got a bit humorous about the maniacal storm conditions, citing the fact Seaside has been celebrating “Festivus” week – a term borrowed from the Seinfeld show, used to describe a shopping gimmick.

“There’s the Columbus Day storm, but we’ve got to come up with a name for this one,” he said. “How about the Festivus Storm?”

Meanwhile, with most roads to the coast closed anyway, officials urge people not to try and head out to the beach to check things out. Wait a couple days. Then, however, things will be quite interesting, with lots of wild debris on the beaches to check out and some fascinating beachcombing finds.
Thanks, Foxx. I'm in a safe place. Real bad south of here, and D'Ann's area along the Nooksack River is under a flood warning.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
409 PM PST MON DEC 03 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON...

SOUTH FORK NOOKSACK RIVER NEAR WICKERSHAM AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.

NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.

NOOKSACK RIVER AT FERNDALE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.

SKAGIT RIVER NEAR CONCRETE AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.

NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.

SOUTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR GRANITE FALLS AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.

STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY.

SKAGIT RIVER NEAR MT. VERNON AFFECTING SKAGIT COUNTY.

.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 28
20. H2PV
Link

Oregon's Largest Sitka Spruce Breaks Apart in Storm


The tree split apart early Sunday morning at approximately 75 feet above the ground.


(SEASIDE, Ore.) - Oregon's largest living thing, the National co-champion Sitka Spruce tree in southern Clatsop County, was severely damaged by the weekend storm that struck the Oregon coast.

Known as the Seaside Spruce or the Klootchy Creek Giant, the tree had shared the title of the country's largest Sitka spruce with another one in Washington's Olympic National Park. At seventeen feet in diameter and 206 feet tall, it was not only the largest of its kind, but was also the first tree designated as an Oregon Heritage Tree.

After the December 2006 storm, officials from Clatsop County, the Oregon Department of Forestry, and the Oregon Heritage Tree Committee determined that the tree was too weakened by time and nature to save, but that public interest in the tree and its unique history merited a response of letting the tree stand and letting nature take its course.

Clatsop County Parks officials erected a fence a safe distance away from the tree, and installed interpretive materials telling the story of the dying tree.

Media reports indicate that the tree split apart early Sunday morning at approximately 75 feet above the ground. This event had been expected since a December 2006 windstorm opened up an old lightning scar running from 40 to 80 feet above the ground. It was along this scar that the tree ultimately failed on Sunday.


"This tree was an Oregon icon," said Paul Ries, an urban forester with the Oregon Department of Forestry and a member of the Oregon Heritage Tree Committee. "The tree failed exactly as we expected it to, and while it represents the loss of a unique state landmark, it also represents an opportunity to see the life cycle of the forest in action."

"This tree has been visited by hundreds of thousands of people and its slow decline allows people the chance to witness the evolving story of this forest giant," observed Jim Renner, manager of the Oregon Heritage Tree program. Clatsop County officials will ultimately determine the best course of how to manage the remaining portion of the tree. The Oregon Heritage Tree Committee will address the tree's fate as a state Heritage Tree next month.

The next chapter of the story of this tree is waiting to unfold and be told – perhaps allowing the old giant to give life as a "nurse log" to new Sitkas.
Oregon Coast Damage 'Worse Than Columbus Day Storm'

Wow H2PV. That was 1962... the storm by which all storms are judged.
24. H2PV
22. Barefootontherocks 1:26 AM GMT on December 04, 2007

Wow H2PV. That was 1962... the storm by which all storms are judged.


Well that 1,000 year-old (2,000?) Sitka Spruce survived all of them storms but the last two. I guess now they will be able to count the tree rings. And maybe, if they haven't already, tissue culture clones of a most-definite survivor-type specimen.
Another threat to life is, with the ground as wet as it is from the melted weekend snow and 3-6 inches of rain in 24 hours, our big, shallowed rooted trees can topple in the blink of an eye.
tissue culture clones of a most-definite survivor-type specimen. LOL.

Where are you, H?
If this trend continues, mostly likely it will because of favorable upper winds, then Tropical Cyclone 05S may form and then Tropical Cyclone Daman.



Tropical Invest 92S has suffered from significant wind shear. The cyclone formation alert issued earlier has been canceled.

later
29. H2PV
Douglas Fir go down like bowling pins. It's kind of exciting to be camped out in a pitch black stormy night with the thumps of trees falling in the woods. Roots snapping can sound like dynamite blasts. Of course, if nobody's there then they don't make a sound, or so I've been told.
30. H2PV
26. Barefootontherocks 1:33 AM GMT on December 04, 2007

Where are you, H?


Sonoma County, California, since January, 2003.

=======

http://www.championtrees.org/champions/ChampionTreeProject.htm

The Champion Tree Project was founded in 1996 in Michigan to preserve these biggest, best, tallest, strongest, and eldest representatives of Earth's largest living plants. The Project exists to protect these magnificent elder giants, and make sure their genetic wisdom, beauty and benevolence is available in the new millennium. We harvest seeds and buds to propagate into new saplings, which are planted in safe havens called Archival Living Libraries.
Forget Seattle's rain. Bremerton on the other side of Puget Sound has received 12.75" of rain in the last 24 hours. And its still raining. Its a big soggy mess out there.

LakeShadow and Shen.. this storm we have is coming your way next. If you ever want to see what happens when you mix 6" of snow followed by flooding rains.. watch the Vancouver Island news... not fun.

Drove upisland on businees, and actually hit standing water on the Highway that had my Magnum Hydro planeing


I can't wait.. Cancun
1 month 1 day 16 hours 7 minutes
Its official.. Canucks are nuts. 30 Foot swells on the west coast of the Island.. freezing.. and they are showing people surfing at longbeach.
Mag9,
Wow. Bremerton got that much?

The Hood Canal area, opposite side of Puget Sound from Seattle, floods at the drop of a hat. Bound to be more bad flooding through the night and into tomorrow.
35. N3EG
Last I heard on the fire radio, the Coast Guard was called out to Vernonia, OR where that picture was taken...and Vernonia is not in the lowlands.
Rainfall warning for:
Greater Vancouver
Fraser valley
Howe Sound
west Vancouver Island.

Further rainfall amounts up to 50 for Greater Vancouver
including the Northshore mountains..Fraser Valley..West
Vancouver Island and up to 80 mm for Howe Sound through
tonight.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or
occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..listen
for updated statements.
37. H2PV
36. Orcasystems 2:27 AM GMT on December 04, 2007

Further rainfall amounts up to 50 for Greater Vancouver including the Northshore mountains..Fraser Valley..West Vancouver Island and up to 80 mm for Howe Sound through tonight.


Sounds mighty impressive 80 mm. Wouldn't sound like so much expressed as 3.15 inches. Try micrometers: 80,000 um, WOWIE! That's like 80,000,000 nanometers, dude. Got Scuba?
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0230z 04Dec)
==========================================
An area of convection (93P) near 12.5S 177.2W or 440 NM northeast of Nadi, Fiji. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and AMSU Image shows persistent deep convection and improving consolidation near a well defined low level circulation center over the last 12 hours. The disturbance lies directly under an upper level anticyclone, which is providing excellent outflow aloft and limiting vertical winds shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005 mb. The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect. This alert may be re-issude, cancelled, or upgraded to a warning by 0230z 05December.
33. Orcasystems 9:06 PM EST on December 03, 2007
Its official.. Canucks are nuts.


You needed an official declaration to figure that out. I've kown that for more than 50yrs. Ever since I realized my Dear Departed Dad was stranger than the average bear. Oh the stories I could tell about DDD.
615. ShenValleyFlyFish 6:59 PM EST on December 03, 2007
Listen up all you Da@#Yankys! If you are gonna move south of the border don't be pinen for the weather you left behind. And you guys stayed up where you belong shut the door. We got wind gusts out of up yalls direction comion kinda katicorner nigh on to 40mph with temps headed well below where the watter starts icin over and nutin to show for it but cars trucks and expecially them silly lookin crosses tween a Station Wagon and and I ain't figured out what wit a tiny bit of hood yall hall your kids around in a swerven all over the road and my tush is a freezin an I aint figgured what your up ter but I know it aint right an I don't like it one litel bit an if ya all pointy headed show offs kant figgur out what Ima tryin to say just put it in yer puter translator.
evening, folks..
just wondering, but I'm afraid to mention in the blog so here goes, *knocks on wood*
What do you think all that precip in the West coast storm will do to the top of Mt Rainer? From what I understand, the snow is melted by the crater lake which is sulfer . When the water melts into it, it turns it into sulfuric acid which in turn eats away at the rock.
Just throwing that out there. Anyone with thoughts on this.
lol! shen. dang dixie chicken. this is fer that nasty heat spell in September! Grow some fat layers to insulate...Why do you think we eat so many chicken wings here in b-lo?
Too much rain in one day; ground and storm water systems can't handle it.

Port Orchard, WA photos by WU photographer Super from 2 pm today



Sinkholes and flooded streets in Seattle. Gov. Christine Gregoire declares state of emergency.
Evenin' y'all. Shen that was about the best example I ever saw of using only one sentence to getter said. I'm gonna to have use it to show my college gradyute chillun how a master does it.
47. H2PV
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22869272-15306,00.html

Storm downs Aussie ISP links

WILD storms pounding the north western states of America have wiped out one of Australia's major internet traffic routes to the US.

Southern Cross Cable operations vice president, Dean Veverka, has confirmed that hurricane-strength storms and flooding have wiped out the carrier's Oregon cable route and halved its bandwidth between Australian and the US. Southern Cross's customers in Australia include iiNet, Internode and AAPT.

The cable had been severed between its Nedonna Beach and Hillsboro facilities, Mr Veverka said. The company has a secondary cable that reaches the US coast via Hawaii and California.

48. H2PV
Link

Storm's two-fistedness is what gave it near-record punch
The Oregonian December 03, 2007 19:22PM

The effects could challenge those of the Columbus Day Storm of 1962

By the time it rumbled ashore late Sunday night, the storm dubbed a "monster" by forecasters began to show its teeth. It mowed down large swaths of forest, severed electrical, transportation and communication lifelines and dumped copious amounts of rain.

In meteorological terms, it was a midlatitude cyclone, churning with power that began as typhoons, and exploded with hurricane-force winds over the Pacific Ocean as it was energized with cold air from Alaska.

"We usually get big windstorms or big rainstorms, but not both at the same time," said George Taylor of the Oregon Climate Service. "With this one, we had near-record wind and near-record rain at the same time."

At the height of its fury, the storm stretched more than 4,000 miles, with its main impact felt from Florence north to Bellingham, Wash. Triple-digit winds -- 129 mph at Bay City on the northern Oregon coast -- and sustained winds of 60 mph to 70 mph wreaked havoc on coastal stands of trees, their roots weakened by as much as 10 inches of rain.

Wolf Read, a meteorological consultant with a keen interest in wind in general and Pacific Northwest windstorms in particular, said peak gusts at Newport and Astoria topped those recorded during the infamous Columbus Day Storm of October 1962. Wind gusts during the Columbus Day Storm reached 127 mph in the Willamette Valley, and many stations had gusts between 75 and 100 mph.

The winds might even have been higher at Newport and Astoria this time, he said, although he can't be sure because weather data was interrupted when the power went out.

Read said although the triple-digit gusts Sunday and Monday were impressive, the sustained winds of 60 mph to 75 mph are what caused "windthrow," a natural phenomenon that affects thousands of acres of forests in the Northwest when it happens once every 10 to 20 years. Large patches of trees -- often near clearcuts or roads -- get blown over en masse, knocking out power and blocking roads.

"Those are Category 1 hurricane-force winds, and that doesn't happen very often. The potential for tree damage is incredible," Read said. "Such storms -- midlatitude cyclones -- have a reach far beyond that of a typical hurricane . . . and can cause damage into the hundreds of millions, even billions" of dollars.

Read said he was skeptical last week when forecasters with the National Weather Service in Portland first mentioned the storm's potential impact -- until, he says, he looked at wind speeds over the ocean.

"The truth is, the weather service went out on a limb and that takes guts," he said of the early warning. "But they were justified in doing it. This storm was a once every 40- or 45-year event, even for the coast. It's storms like this that may slowly erode the memory of the Columbus Day Storm."

Although rainfall amounts totaled less than during last year's record-setting rains in the coastal mountains near Tillamook, fast-responding rivers such as the Wilson, Trask, Nehalem, and Willapa in southwest Washington, rapidly reached flood stage.

As fast as the rivers rose, they began to recede, said Andy Bryant of the Northwest River Forecast Center. He said the Wilson and Nehalem rivers crested above flood stage at about 2 p.m. Monday. The Wilson River never matched the level it reached last year, but the Trask rose higher than 2006, pushed there by massive rains, and Bryant said, "much higher seas."

He said that after the cold front moves to the east by Tuesday morning, northwest Oregon and southwest Washington will be looking at showers, a bit of rain and cool temperatures, and a slow drying trend into the weekend.
49. KRL
Probably a dumb question, but I'm curious to know.

If it looks like a hurricane (see pic H456 posted above) and it acts like a hurricane and it destroys like a hurricane, why shouldn't it be called a hurricane?

Sure it doesn't have the exact cyclonic features like a traditional cane, but the wind speeds and damage it wrought are the same.

Amazing and more evidence the norms are changing.

current about 5mi away


Buck's Elbow Mountain, Crozet, V
Temperature Dew Point Humidity Wind Pressure Hourly Precipitation Windchill Updated Mode
20.5 °F / -6.4 °C - -
NW at 23.0 mph / 37 km/h
29.83 in / 1010.0 hPa 0.00 in / 0 mm 3 °F / -16 °C 0 sec ago Rapid Fire


Historical Data & Charts — Add to My Blog — Daily Summary for December 4, 2007

« Previous Day

Next Day »
Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly Custom
Current: High: Low: Average:
Temperature: 20.5 °F / -6.4 °C 20.6 °F / -6.3 °C 20.2 °F / -6.6 °C 20.3 °F / -6.5 °C
Dew Point: 0.0 °F / -17.8 °C 0.0 °F / -17.8 °C 0.0 °F / -17.8 °C 0.0 °F / -17.8 °C
Humidity: 0% 0% 100% 0%
Wind Speed: 29.0mph / 46.7km/h / 46.0mph / 74.0km/h - 29.0mph / 46.6km/h
Wind Gust: 46.0mph / 74.0km/h / 51.0mph / 82.1km/h - -
Wind: NW - - NW
Pressure: 29.83in / 1010.0hPa 29.88in / 1011.7hPa 29.83in / 1010.0hPa -
Precipitation: 0.00in / 0.0mm

Statistics for the rest of the month:
High: Low: Average:
Temperature: 45.2 °F / 7.3 °C 27.0 °F / -2.8 °C 33.7 °F / 0.9 °C
Dew Point: 0.0 °F / -17.8 °C 0.0 °F / -17.8 °C 0.0 °F / -17.8 °C
Humidity: 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
Wind Speed: 31.0mph / 49.9km/h from the NNW - 8.5mph / 13.7km/h
Wind Gust: 34.0mph / 54.7km/h from the NW - -
Wind: - - NNW
Pressure: 30.55in / 1034.4hPa 30.25in / 1024.3hPa -
Precipitation: 0.00in / 0.0mm
KVACROZE2 Weather Graph

Thanks, Doc M
Morning Folks. WOW you west coasters better hunker down. Thats one powerful system. I know down range the energy will spawn something in the way of wintery weather for the midwest and northeast.

Time to go look at some forcast models and figure this thing out
Morning Baja
Hey Bone! Mornin
38 here.....brrrr...you'd think it was winter or something :))
LOL Baja. come my way 27 degrees winds WNW at 22 gusting 30 windchill 17 degrees Lake Effect Snow Showers

Yea winters here :) And I am loving it
Well Bone, all I'm gonna say is.....better YOU than ME..haha. The snowbirds come into the store wearing tank tops, shorts and flip flops and we look and each other and shiver!!
LOL Baja. I remeber those days :)

Yea its cold even for me. I love the winter weather and all but the body isnt handeling the cold very well this year. Even the dog is giving me dirty looks when I tell her lets go for a walk :) LOL
I've been somewhat productive. I FINALLY got my links SOMEWHAT organized (although NOW I'm having trouble FINDING some of them..haha. And delving into the many links I've saved over the season filed under 'Education'. :))
I'm orginally from California. Id looked at two places to move....Ohio...and Florida. I moved to Struther, OH (outside youngstown) on December 28 *laffs* Froze my butt off. After ONE winter, I said to myself, Self? I will NOT do one more winter here....and came down to florida :)) :))
LOL Baja. Yea all the links can get kinda burdensome. I organized mine a few months ago and really got down to it. Folders such as models, upper air data, winter wx, tropical, ect

Really makes finding links quickly. Also got to throw out a few dead links and old or outdated links
Gotcha Baja. I live din NJ all my life then during college moved to Florida and missed having weather LOL so I moved back.
LOL !!!
This is quiet time for us. Springtime, I'll start getting more excited about the weather here because our tornado season starts
I hear ya. This is our big wetaher season. Always await the winter time. Spring is either cold or hot, occasionally a Nor'Easter that brings flooding. Summer is just hot and muggy. Fall is like spring 50/50 temp wise but nothing weather wise to speak of unless we get a big early season storm.

Guess Florida is the same way only you folks have a tornado season and of course the tropical season. Other than that its the three H's
Tropical Cyclone Formation alert for Tropical Depression 04F. There is impressive banding features with this cyclone.

LOL, exactly. I've been trying to listen and pay a little more attention to you folks talking about the winter weather...try to learn a little more about something I'm NOT so familar with :))
Hey 456....good morning to ya
Morning 456
morning all
Y'all enjoy your day..off to work
Thats smart Baja. Always keep learning :)

I follow winter weather more closely then tropical only because it impacts me directly.

I do find, others might not agree, that winter weather is easier to predict then tropical development only because the storms are longer lived. Where as the tropical systems develope, or not, out of tropical waves and as seen recently even with proper conditions nothing has to happen. Where as winter systems can be picked up days in advance and tracked more closely and if the conditions are right for snow you usually get it. The hard part is predicting total precip amounts. Not so much as formation or areas impacted. It was told to me years ago.. "winter prediction is the 101 course of tropical prediction"
I have 4 minutes to out the door ...lol. When I lived in california we tracked the storm out of the Gulf of Alaska. I notice that the trailing edge of THIS storm is bringing precipitation to HI and the flow goes up into california....we used to call those, "pineapple express" because they were usually warmer, wetter events
Morning,Brrrr.

Observed at: New Orleans, Louisiana
Elevation: 3 ft / 1 m
[Clear]
42 F / 6 C
Clear

River Cam Link
76. rlk
KRL, it's not a hurricane because the structure does not resemble a hurricane. The satellite photo doesn't really look like a hurricane, either -- it has a clearly defined frontal band, which a hurricane doesn't have.

Hurricanes are symmetric warm core systems with a tight central core. This is a cold core system (which you can't see directly on visible imagery) that certainly isn't symmetric.

Storms like this happen every now and then, and it's hardly evidence that the norms are changing. Note the post about the Columbus Day 1962 storm, which was stronger than this one -- and October isn't normally the stormiest time of the year along the west coast.
Morning StormW
Morning Pat
Morning StormW,Bone..Tuesday the 4th.
I must have been busy watching the storm that was coming into the northeast and missed the storm in the northwest. Will have to keep a closer watch on what is going on.
Slight windchill to upper 30's here. Lil N wind off Lake.
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
31 here wind WNW 20 g30 windchill 17 with lake effect snow bands

gotta love winter :)

Observed at: Newark, New Jersey
Elevation: 16 ft

31 F
Light Snow
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: 18 F
Wind: 24 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 29 mph
Pressure: 29.57 in (Falling)
Windchill: 18 F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 2900 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3700 ft
Overcast 7500 ft
(Above Ground Level)

sorry business meeting. Yea Storm the GFS run on the 14th looks very ominous. I was also looking at the 850H temp profile on the same date and looks to be a possible event for much of the I-95 corridor and also a large ocean gale.

Have to see if later runs continue to show the same.

did anybody hear about the thunderstorm during the blizzard in sydney, nova scotia, i heard from my good friend that it was pretty intense on the west side of the city.
Dr. Masters. You must have missed the below observations. Up to 144 knot gust was taken in Pangborn WA yesterday.

KEAT 031605Z AUTO VRB04G114KT 5SM -RA BR SQ FEW001 BKN018 OVC035 01/00 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 120114/1559 P0000 $
KEAT 031555Z AUTO 26026G144KT 150V300 6SM -RA BR SQ SCT001 BKN006 OVC018 01/01 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 200144/1550 RAB17FZRAE17 SLP065 P0001 T00110006 $
Gm,all,and whats this about the GFS on the 16th
just looked at the NWS GFS run out to 340

yea 16th looks nasty

yea nasty little sucker.
That does look bad,but don't have a lot of faith this far out,especially in the winter,things change so fast
gotcha Storm. I was looking at an old GFS run when i mentioned the blob. Had to refresh the page, my fault
need to keep an eye start of next week also.
QUESTIONS ABOUND ABOUT THE TIMING OF A STORM AND COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR
VICINITY BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR.
yea NE looks like another midwest pulse coming through. Also Thursday this week (maybe wednesday night) that Clipper from the PacNW storm might be close enough to cause headaches.

Appears december is the frieght train month.

Like you said though have to see run to run consitancy.
Morning!

Clear Blue skies, 38F, w/ winds about 9mph N. here on the NWFL panhandle...

Talked to a friend on Whidbey Island, just N or Seattle area last night. They shut the ferries down yesterday due to weather, but ironically the Island only got about 1/4 in. rain, whereas the mainland was hammered, flooding, high winds, etc...
snowing here this morning bone,snow squalls formed a short time ago,backlash from the big maritime storm.
Yea looked at Nexrad you guys getting the wrap around.

We are getting Lake Effect bands down here in NJ
Morning Foxx.

38 in the Panhandle brrrrrrrr
lol,I was just thinking the same thing 38 in panhandle,bring out the overcoats.
I mean I cant complain its 30 here with a windchill of 17 but still, brrrrr
Morning, folks...in for a few checking th eweather...wow, Foxx, 38...snorkel parkas all around?
Hey, its relative! Its cold here! BRRRR! Interesting, woke up Monday to about 60F by 5:00 pm it was about 50 with some pretty gusty winds.... Big change.

Today we go from Brrrr to about 61F. *LOL
hey all. hows things? Still have flurries here...indefinately until the end of winter, so it seems...
:S
Flood ~ please send warm clothes! Brrrr *teeth chattering*
morning flood,Lake,snowing here too,October almost 6 deg above normal,seems like a long time ago.

lt.snow
20F
(-7C) Humidity: 71 %
Wind Speed: W 14 G 21 MPH
Barometer: 29.37" (996.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 12F (-11C)
Wind Chill: 7F (-14C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.

somebody want to trade weather?
Lake, has it stopped snowing there since Halloween?
Morning Flood.

LOL Foxx yea thats a nice temp rise. Im going from a morning low of 27 to high of 38 today. So basically its just going to be cold here for the next few days
How's this look, Foxx?

Morning Lake
Time to start the pool...when will we see the sun again here in b-lo? Sometimes in the winter its weeks...usually around the winter solstice, too so everyone gets vitamin defficiency and in turn, cranky and depressed.
Bone, how are you, other than cold?
41. ShenValleyFlyFish 3:50 AM GMT on December 04, 2007
615. ShenValleyFlyFish 6:59 PM EST on December 03, 2007
Listen up all you Da@#Yankys! If you are gonna move south of the border don't be pinen for the weather you left behind. And you guys stayed up where you belong shut the door. We got wind gusts out of up yalls direction comion kinda katicorner nigh on to 40mph with temps headed well below where the watter starts icin over and nutin to show for it but cars trucks and expecially them silly lookin crosses tween a Station Wagon and and I ain't figured out what wit a tiny bit of hood yall hall your kids around in a swerven all over the road and my tush is a freezin an I aint figgured what your up ter but I know it aint right an I don't like it one litel bit an if ya all pointy headed show offs kant figgur out what Ima tryin to say just put it in yer puter translator.
Action: | Ignore User


ROFLMAO

There I was, drinking my morning coffee, reading the blog on my Laptop...

I read this and almost drown, not to mention having to clean on the screen...

I am getting really tired of the pinapple express.

I don't think this one gave us as much damage as the storm in December last year.
Sore. Home stretch of the remodel so I have been laying hardwood floors the past few days. My lower back and hamstrings are screaming in pain.

Lake I say May 15th for Blo to see sun LOL ;) just kidding

Look for the first breaks of sun Saturday. The winds are forcasted to relax and winds swing around from the SE
Oh, Flood, thank you! Looks warm!

Bone - Brrrr & double Brrrr!

Lake - snow is pretty to look at once a year, and I would shrivel up and die from sun deprivation!

Oh, and good morning Storm!
LOL flood...its been nothing since then. (with the exception of the past 3 days. I'm on my 4th snow now but accumulations have been less than an inch. So not much to chovel, just cold and icy with a ground cover...just enough to count for a snow! (And thats all I need)
Orca,that is some funny sh*t
I think Shen is having traffic problems, not to mention being warmth challenged (means being cold, by the way)...has some problems with folks north of the Mason-Dixon too, it would appear
Oh speaking of wich Lake Sunday night storm started after sunset but the snow didnt last till the following. So does it count or no? Was 2 1/2 inches though
Let it snow!!!Let it snow!!!!Let it snow!!!
Throws the radio across the room.
Orca, I just spewed my coffee all over my MAC reading Shens post! LOL

and then Floods! *warmth challenged* ROFLMAO *spewing*
*crosses fingers*
sorry, bone...If it fell after sunset and melted before sunrise, you got robbed.
126. LakeShadow 2:45 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
LOL flood...its been nothing since then. (with the exception of the past 3 days. I'm on my 4th snow now but accumulations have been less than an inch. So not much to chovel, just cold and icy with a ground cover...just enough to count for a snow! (And thats all I need)
Action: | Ignore User


Shen, if I have internet at the resort, I will send you some pics of what the sun looks like. :)

Cancun
1 month 1 day 3 hours 8 minutes
Yeah I think I told shen to fatten up like we do up north....thats why we like our chicken wings here in b-lo!
135. LakeShadow 2:53 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
Yeah I think I told shen to fatten up like we do up north....thats why we like our chicken wings here in b-lo!

lol,yeh,that should warm you up for weather like this.
Close one last night, NE
Listen up all you Da@#Yankys! If you are gonna move south of the border don't be pinen for the weather you left behind. And you guys stayed up where you belong shut the door. We got wind gusts out of up yalls direction comion kinda katicorner nigh on to 40mph with temps headed well below where the watter starts icin over and nutin to show for it but cars trucks and expecially them silly lookin crosses tween a Station Wagon and and I ain't figured out what wit a tiny bit of hood yall hall your kids around in a swerven all over the road and my tush is a freezin an I aint figgured what your up ter but I know it aint right an I don't like it one litel bit an if ya all pointy headed show offs kant figgur out what Ima tryin to say just put it in yer puter translator.

hits translator button for everyone

Listen up all you Northern People. If you are going to move south of Pennsylvania dont wish for your old weather. And for those of us that are here keep the cold up here. We have wind gusts from the North coming NE sometimes gustin close to 40mph with temps droping below freezing. With nothing to show for it but cars and trucks and especially them SUVs. You soccor Moms bring your kids everywhere not driving the best of ways. My butt is freezing and I cant figure out what we are all up too but I do not like it one bit. And if all you northerners cant figure out what I am saying put this through one of your translators.


This message has been decoded by the redneck2007 translator. Brought to you by the fine folks of the Blur Collar Comedy Tour. And by the You Might Be A Redneck Foundation For A Better America.


Git Er Done

Lake it last to sunrise and most of the day we lost it before the following sunset
please know post 138 was totally tongue in cheek
lots of accidents in my area with quick hitting snow squalls,am I being foolish,or shouldn't people slow down when snowing hard??
133. LakeShadow 2:51 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
sorry, bone...If it fell after sunset and melted before sunrise, you got robbed.
Action: | Ignore User


I was rereading your blog... I don't think any of our snow counted? two days of non stop snow (it says to count it after it stops)... followed by the pineapple express which washed it all away in a couple of hours. So after the snow stopped, it never stayed on the ground for a day from sunrise to sunset?

If thats correct.. no more snow.. or at least we have not had our first official snow yet :)
lol,very smart to make it known you were just kidding
*Spewing* again!

If I want snow, I'll cross the bridge into Destin, hit the beach with sugary, snowy white sand and pretend. Heck I might even build a "SandMan".

140. Bonedog 3:00 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
please know post 138 was totally tongue in cheek
Action: | Ignore User


I loved it.. I am almost positive Jeff Foxworthy gets half of his redneck material here during hurricane season and reading some of the posts.
mmmm Gulf Beach sand mmmmmmmmm

*margaritaville playing in background*
Good morning to everyone but beachfoxx,

Are you trying to make us jealous? Well, its working......
keep the beach shots coming Foxx. Warming me up already :)
Morning, you cold folk.
Just to confirm, that it is about 83 f, gentle east breezes, low and comfy humidity, clear sky, and all is well.
Life in the Tropics man, Ya'all come...
LOL bone.
About the snow...if you woke up and were able to measure snow, and it melted after that, it counts. Just needs to be there for sunrise...doesnt have to stay all day unless it only starts snowing AFTER sunrise.
Imagine you are tracking prey... can you track an animal in the new snow to catch breakfast? yes? you get a snow...if the snow's gone and you cant find fresh tracks, you dont get one. understand? I know its a bit confusing...
Thats a beautiful beach shot,but looks even better when I look out my window at all the frozen slush.
Sorry WFSU! But good morning anyway!

Bone, it will be 60 here later today... and I can send you oodles of beach pics... just keep playing Buffet, and use your imagination!
Oh Ok gotcha Lake. As Long as there is enough to track in the morning then we count it.

So that makes 3 snowfalls for me this year. I think we are right that the 10 will be too little so the real number was 30. Gosh 27 more to go, and the way it looks we are on target to reach the goal :/
You make it tempting, pottery, especially since I've been itching to do some throwing on a wheel...
144. Beachfoxx 3:02 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
*Spewing* again!

If I want snow, I'll cross the bridge into Destin, hit the beach with sugary, snowy white sand and pretend. Heck I might even build a "SandMan".

So if I pretend like you,I should be able to go
outside right now with my beach chair and bathing suit on and kick the snow around and pretend I'm on the beach and it's the same as you pretending the sand is snow,Right???
LOL Foxx. Thanks
Pottery... mmmmmmm I like warm!
I hear ya bone...I got 30-32 left. Dont forget the margin of err....
154. Bonedog 3:14 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
Oh Ok gotcha Lake. As Long as there is enough to track in the morning then we count it.

So that makes 3 snowfalls for me this year. I think we are right that the 10 will be too little so the real number was 30. Gosh 27 more to go, and the way it looks we are on target to reach the goal :/

yeh,by December 31st
Well not exactly... you will need to take a portable heater with you and be sure to be protected from winds! Then, w/ a strong imagination and the right music.... maybe! LOL

NEwxguy
So if I pretend like you,I should be able to go
outside right now with my beach chair and bathing suit on and kick the snow around and pretend I'm on the beach and it's the same as you pretending the sand is snow,Right???
LOL NE!! You might be right :)

Ok Lake the margin of error was 2 or 3 correct? So as little as 27 or as much as 33. We are at 3 so anywheres between 24 to 30 snows.. yea December 31st seems right NE dont you think?
161. Beachfoxx 3:18 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
Well not exactly... you will need to take a portable heater with you and be sure to be protected from winds! Then, w/ a strong imagination and the right music.... maybe! LOL

Well,I don't have to worry about being out there too long,the neighbors will call the men in the white suits to come and get me real fast.
Shaddow, and Foxx, no problem. Direct flights out of Houston 3 days a week..............5 acres of landscaped tropical gardens with panoramic views, cold beer and roosters that wake you before dawn await you.
( sounds like a real-estate ad.!!) Oh, and the clay is locally dug, and its always warm.
my neighbor one year sat outside in a lawn chair in shorts with a blow up Palm tree and a cooler of corona's with Buffet playing. I was going to join hmm but it was 10 degrees outside with 20mph winds.

If your wondering 15 minutes later his wife had to call the ambulance because he went hypothermic :/

Yea I submitted it to the Darwin Awards
NEwxguy... yep, better not tempt them!


Weather Lore Question... I grew up in NE TN, Appalachian Mtns and I remember both sets of grandparents talking about the "Ruling Days of Dec". The 12 days from Dec. 25 - Jan. 6, each day representing a month, used to predict weather. Anyone else hear of this?
Dang it! There goes the coffee spew again! Maybe I should just grab a few coffee beans and chew on them... Be better for computer!



165. Bonedog
my neighbor one year sat outside in a lawn chair in shorts with a blow up Palm tree and a cooler of corona's with Buffet playing. I was going to join hmm but it was 10 degrees outside with 20mph winds.

If your wondering 15 minutes later his wife had to call the ambulance because he went hypothermic :/

Yea I submitted it to the Darwin Awards
The "twelve ruling days" are the days from December 26th to January 6th ("Old Christmas Day" I think). The weather on each of the days represents the coming weather for that relative month ahead. For example, the weather on December 26th indicates the weather for January, the weather on December 27th indicates the weather for February, etc. If it's cold and windy on December 28th, then March will be cold and windy.
Oh and Pottery, better get the hammock out.... sounds wonderful!
If ant hills are high in July,
Winter will be snowy.

If the first week in August is unusually warm,
the coming Winter will be snowy and long.

For every fog in August,
There will be a snowfall in Winter.

If a cold August follows a hot July,
It foretells a Winter hard and dry.

When leaves fall early,
Fall and Winter will be mild;
When leaves fall late,
Winter will be severe.

Squirrels gathering nuts in a flurry,
Will cause snow to gather in a hurry.

Much rain in October,
Much wind in December.

A warm October,
A cold February.

Full Moon in October without frost,
No frost 'till November's Full Moon.

Flowers bloomin' in late Autumn,
A sure sign of a bad Winter comin'.

A warm November is the sign of a bad Winter.

As high as the weeds grow,
So will the bank of snow.

Thunder in the Fall foretells a cold Winter.

Onion skins very thin,
Mild Winter coming in;
Onion skins thick and tough,
Coming Winter cold and rough.

A green Christmas; a white Easter.

If there's thunder during Christmas week,
The Winter will be anything but meek.

A tough Winter is ahead if:
corn husks are thick and tight...
apple skins are tough...
birds migrate early...
squirrels tails are very bushy...
berries and nuts are plentiful...
bees build their nests high in the trees.
If the breast bone of the Thanksgiving goose is red or has many spots, expect a cold and stormy Winter; but if only a few spots are visible, expect a mild Winter.
The severity of Winter is determined by how far down the feathers have grown on a partridge's leg.
The wider the brown (middle) band on a woolly bear caterpillar, the milder the Winter.
The nearer the New Moon to Christmas Day, the harder the Winter.
If the first snowfall lands on unfrozen ground, the Winter will be mild.
LOL bone!!! Neighborsicles!

Foxx..havent heard,,do tell more!

Weather Lore Question... I grew up in NE TN, Appalachian Mtns and I remember both sets of grandparents talking about the "Ruling Days of Dec". The 12 days from Dec. 25 - Jan. 6, each day representing a month, used to predict weather. Anyone else hear of this?

vaguely heard of it,theres a million weather folk lore out there,heres some of them

Weather Lore Question... I grew up in NE TN, Appalachian Mtns and I remember both sets of grandparents talking about the "Ruling Days of Dec". The 12 days from Dec. 25 - Jan. 6, each day representing a month, used to predict weather. Anyone else hear of this?
lol,I found that same link Bone.
Any one know why every radar in the U.S shut down at 1000L? (1500Z)
lots of good old weather lore, there bone...
btw..
Flowers bloomin' in late Autumn,
A sure sign of a bad Winter comin'


I had roses and strawberries blooming until late November...

but most of those other things say a bad winter.
gotta love google searches for weather folklore

some seem to be happening as we speak.

When leaves fall early,
Fall and Winter will be mild;
When leaves fall late,
Winter will be severe.


If the first week in August is unusually warm,
the coming Winter will be snowy and long.

Thanks, I could not remember the details of "Ruling Days".... interesting Lore.

I'm watching acorns after seeing the post about acorns & hurricane preditions...
174. Spetrm 10:36 AM EST on December 04, 2007
Any one know why every radar in the U.S shut down at 1000L? (1500Z)
Action: | Ignore User


UFO flyby and the Men In Black didnt want a record of it making it to the public sector??
Gotta go out and find a partridge somewhere and check the length of his feathers.
Link

lil something for y'all freezing your unmentionables off... From a local Western New Yorker...
You know, this blog is better than SNL! Ya'll crack me up! *ROFLMCPO
October was wetter then normal and December has been windy as ever!

Those lore predictions seem to be playing out
The nearer the New Moon to Christmas Day, the harder the Winter.

DEC. 9
JAN. 8

gees get a little closer why dont ya
lol NE..watch out for bird flu!
Link

Here's some Dead for Flood...recorded here in B-lo! It was heartfelt!
lol,bone they are like tarot card readers,cover as many areas as you can with your statements and some of them will come true.
Farmers Almanac for Dec

DECEMBER 2007: temperature 35° (3° below avg.); precipitation 3" (1" above avg. north, 1" below south); Dec 1-9: Rain and snow, then sunny, very cold; Dec 10-14: Flurries, then sunny, cold; Dec 15-19: Periods of snow, cold; Dec 20-22: Showers, seasonable; Dec 23-26: Rain and snow, then sunny, very cold; Dec 27-31: Flurries, seasonable.


Oh-la-la!!! Love the Dead!

Some of the weather lore my grandfather used was pretty accurate for NE TN... not sure it really applies to the Gulf Coast! ha! ha!
bonedog, that sounds like a string of clippers...
Lake heres yours from the Almanac

What We Predicted for December
DECEMBER 2007: temperature 27° (2° below avg.); precipitation 1.5" (1.5" below avg.); Dec 1-10: Snow squalls, cold; Dec 11-13: Sunny, mild; Dec 14-19: Periods of snow, cold; Dec 20-26: Lake snows, cold; Dec 27-31: Flurries, milder.

Bone,

Sounds cold. Maybe I should move further south!
hey the sun's peeking out!
All the bad weather songs...It must have heard...
nothing on the net about the whole national radar grid going down. Sep how long did it last?
Sun spots?
Stay warm! Gotta run! Thanks for the weather and laughter! *fears of spewing...chewing coffee beans as exiting*
later beachfoxx...stay cool!
yup thats what it pretty much looks llike here sea side oregon got gusts up to 129 mph according to the news....wow
see ya foxx,glad you got a laugh,even if you have to clean your screen off now.
196. LakeShadow
later beachfoxx...stay cool!


I know that was a typo... you meant stay warm! LOL

TTYL
new featured blog spot. Northeast weather by sullivanweather.. congrats sullivan :)
no, beachfoxx...cool as a cucumber!
so bone whats the outlook like for the upcoming week?
Collaborative observers are posting their precip amounts here:

http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=or

It's been live for only 3 days, but already some 25 observers are putting up numbers of up to 5.3 inches in a 24 hour period!
Good morning fellow bloggers,
Ok all you weather nuts. Last I heard the Earth's atmosphere surrounds the entire planet. So what kind of havoc will the NW be causing as it passes along these systems that still bring and have brought snow, continuing rain, floods and the worst winds here since 1962? Just what kind of havoc will it wreak to the South and East as it moves on? Well, weather guys?

The rain from our "Pineapple Express" continues. The floods continue. A 20-mile stretch of I-5 between Portland and Seattle will be closed for days, and the 441-mile detour routed through the Cascade Mountains and eastern WA and back west along the Columbia River is a dicey route that weather could also close at any moment. Oh, and there's the usual stuff that goes along with a bad storm... people living in shelters, power outages, deaths, homes and lives in ruin.
Latest from Seattle PI.

KOMO TV news Seattle

Many thanks to those who have shown interest or concern about the weather up here. It's a pleasure to see Dr. Masters recognize this Pacific NW storm as the major and historic weather event that it is. Thanks again, Dr. M.
Looking at the long range models we have a clipper wednesday night/ thursday, a system pegged for monday, possible cold front next thursday then a bomb for the 16th.

But thats all specualitve right now becuase of how far out it is. The only sure one is the wednesday night thursday.

Right now it appears it is a limited moisture system but a few models have hinted it will be close enough to the coast to have overunning Atl precip. Others show snow showers if anything. But the winds will pick back up no matter what in the lee of the storm so looks like your in for another round of Lake Effect
Thanks Lake for the Snow :)

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN MORE ACTIVE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR PA AND NRN NJ COUNTIES. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND MT POCONO. WEB CAM
IMAGES SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN PARTS OF NW
NJ
. WE EXPECT SNOW BANDS TO CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY AS LONG AS THE
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME
SPOTS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS SLACKEN.
where did everyone go?
lol,still a few people here.
hehehe was wonderin what happened
actually gotta run out and get some lunch bbl.
look at the amount of strong winds over the globe



well folks off to lunch then back to the house to lay down some more hardwood.

Everyone have a good day :o)
later bone...sorry I had to get the childrens from school.
Anyone in here?
is anyone here?
Just stuck my nose back in...how you, NE?
SEATTLE (AP) - The Coast Guard says ten helicopters -- some brought in from as far away as San Diego -- have hoisted more than 130 people to safety from Western Washington floodwaters.

The storm is blamed for two deaths in Grays Harbor County one man was hit by a falling tree and another person with a medical condition died when the power went out.
Im good flood,very cold up here,winter has set in and doesn't look like its leaving any time soon.Don't you hate visitors who drop in uninvited.
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration now acknowledges it is trying to recover nearly $500 million from people who improperly received federal aid money intended to help victims of two deadly hurricanes, Katrina and Rita, along the Gulf Coast two years ago. It said the amount may increase further.

Link
Gotta few incidence of major flooding.

Always enjoy hearing about stories of Washington being careful with my tax dollars.
This comes as no suprise since a bunch of FEMA money was handed out when it shouldn't in FL the year before. It takes a talent to get the National debt to grow $1 million a minute.
Absolutely Skye! That's why they're in the big game.
Funny Stuff...MUST SEE!

Let it load.
Live television feed from KING

Click on this headline on top:

Live aerials of the Centralia-Chehalis area from SkyKING
Good luck to anyone who lives in the Northwest. The images coming in from there looks as if a Category 2 hurricane, a blizzard, and a monsoon all just got together and smacked the NW around. I hope noone was injured or killed by this overpowering storm.
good afternoon all
It's hard to believe that I missed the northwest storm developing. Has any one tracked to source and is it possible that it is left over from one of the typhoons that hit the western pacific? I usually watch the pacific satellite and don't remember seeing anything out there last week. It sure brought in a lot of rain and damage to the northwest.
According to this, it formed from the remnants of Tropical Depression 26W:

Wow, if the CMC is correct on that, who would have thought that 26W would have formed such a powerful storm. Td 26W was very weak.
Tropical Depression 04F. Clouds and thunderstorms makes a 0.50 spiral around the cloud system center (dot) which correspond to CI 2.5.

I always found microwave imagery useful. Especially the SSMIS sensor on the DMSP satellites.

The UKMET also shows that it formed from TD 26W, although the other models apparantly dropped it before forming the current storm, but their tracks make it look like it could be the same system (except for the NOGAPS, which doesn't even show the current storm on the 12Z analysis and developed it only 48 hours earlier on the 00z analysis).
Why does the microwave pick up the same radiation levels over open water as some of the cloud tops in TD 04F.

Simply because, the low temperatures indicate that low radiation is being picked up at 91GHz. This is because clouds block the outgoing radiation by scattering, reflecting or absorbing it. In the case of the sea....sea has low emissivity properties. That means radiation does not reflect well on sea surface so thats why low temps (low radiation) is being measured by the sensor.

Good afternoon/evening everyone,

I hope everyone is alright over there in the North-West. The news this morning on the Finnish radio about this storm scared me a bit... hurricane force winds, loads of snow and rain, schools closed, disrupted traffic, and 9 people dead. :(
Interesting hypothesis, MichaelSTL, that could explain all the moisture and the high winds. Wow, the CMC seems to be better with non-tropical or post-tropical systems.

Sorry for being quite absent-minded, I'm currently busy with helping my sister to get her computer running again... anyone knowing something about linux? That's why I hit accidently the button without having finished my comment.
Impressive storm

I believe that TD 04F is a tropical storm based on my Dvorák estimate, the SSD's estimate and QuikSCAT.
This type of imagery measures the amount of radiation absorbed by water droplets within clouds and falling precipitation. A measure of water content.

140. Bonedog 3:00 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
please know post 138 was totally tongue in cheek
Action: | Ignore User




The following is the 2007 winning entry from an annual contest at Texas
A&M University calling for the most appropriate definition of a
contemporary term.

This year's term: Political Correctness.

"Political Correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional,
illogical, liberal minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous
mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely
possible to pick up a turd by the clean end."
Wow, the CMC seems to be better with non-tropical or post-tropical systems.

It is also better than other models when forecasting tropical cyclogenesis outside of the Atlantic; it is currently the only model that makes anything significant out of 93P/TD 04F (the other models do pick it up, but show little development). Kind of reminds me of the GFS's convective feedback problem, which is mainly over the U.S. and South America (according to this); not really sure why the CMC often has problems with tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic (it is not listed as a known model bias here).
alright, I didn't follow much the models' prediction qualities outside the Atlantic. Having read that the Saharan dust can affect the cyclogenesis in the Atlantic bassin I wonder now whether there are still other factors which make this ocean special - and hard for the models to predict or if it is even the dust itself which affects their exactitude. Being a global model the CMC may perform well in "normal" oceans but it has problems with this special one. I admit I don't know enough about the characteristics of the different bassins, so this is only a thought of me.

Thanks again for your sat image tutorials, W456. I seem to learn more about them in a week now than during the whole season. :)

I'll be off for tonight, see you all!
Take care
tipsku
Thanks again for your sat image tutorials, W456. I seem to learn more about them in a week now than during the whole season. :)

no prob..that is what the images are aimed at.
New Advisory in from the RSMC Fiji

ropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 04/2338 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1000 HPA] CENTRE NEAR 11.8S 178.8E AT 042100
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION,QUIKSCAT AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTIVE BANDS GETTING BETTER ORGANISED AND COOLED PAST 12 HOURS.
CONVECTION INCREASED ESPECIALLY TO WEST OF LLCC. HOWEVER, SOME
WARMING DETECTED IN LAST FEW IMAGERIES. DEPRESSION IS LOCATED UNDER A
250-HPA OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
29-30C. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED WESTWARDS BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AGREE ON
A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
Tropical Cyclone 05P has form
The given satellite presentation along with QuikSCAT measured tropical storm strength earlier. Now the JTWC has confirmed that. All it needs now is its name and that would be given by RSMC Fiji.

249. H2PV
Link

How High Is the Water?
Pineapple Express Over For Now: Forecasters Predict Spell of Dry Weather
Posted Dec 4, 12:20 pm.

By Nick George and Brian Mittge
The Chronicle

The Chehalis River in Centralia hit a new record high at 3:30 this morning of 74.78 feet at the Mellen Street gauge near Exit 81.

National Weather Service Meteorologist Jay Albrecht said at around 7:30 this morning he expected the Chehalis River at Mellen Street to crest at 75.5 feet near 10 a.m. today.

“There’s water going into places it’s never gone before and that is going to slow down the crest,” Albrecht said.

The massive rains that have dumped upon Lewis County are the result of a “pineapple express” system, according to Albrecht.

“Two ex-tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific moved into the jet stream east across the Pacific and then hit local cold air,” Albrecht said.

The clashing of air caused winds to pick up, thus driving moisture into Southwest Washington, Albrecht explained.

“Moisture-laden air hit the mountains and it began raining like crazy,” Albrecht said.

The National Weather Service forecasts that showers will slowly diminish in the Twin Cities area over the next 36 hours. The service also expects dry weather from Thursday until Sunday that will assist in lowering the levels of area rivers.

“The Chehalis River at Doty was 10 feet above its record level when the gauge broke, if that gives you an idea of what we are talking about,” Albrecht said.

Already, the measurement at Mellen Street in Centralia this morning was nearly a half foot higher than the previous worst flood in recorded Centralia history, on Feb. 9, 1996. In that devastating flood � known until now as the flood of record � the Mellen Street gauge recorded 74.31 feet. The second-worst recorded flooding was Jan. 10, 1990, when rivers hit 73.5 feet. On Nov. 25, 1986, Mellen Street recorded 71.99 feet.

At 8 a.m. today the water level had dropped slightly, but the Chehalis River at Mellen Street was still nearly 10 feet above flood stage at 74.2 feet.

The Cowlitz River also pushed high, hitting 16.92 feet at Randle at 5:30 a.m.
Regional Specialized Meteorological Service
Nadi, Fiji
Gale Warning Number One
130 UTC 05December
=========================
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [997 HPA]
11.9S 178.2E
Position Poor
Moving Westward at 15 knots

Remarks:
Clockwise winds may increase to 35 knots within 60 to 90 miles from the center in the next six to twelve hours.


night stormw
253. H2PV
Link



By midday Tuesday, Interstate 5 near Chehalis was covered in 10 feet of flood water.
Could affect the nation of Fiji down the road.



Looks like this 04F might be the first of the TD's so far in the south pacific season with some potential
Well thats fairly impressive, the gale warning shows a 3mb drop in pressure since the tropical disturbance statement was issued about 3-4 hrs ago.
Veti Leva - one of the islands that make up the nation of Fiji, a beautiful tropical island.





Oh and as STL pointed out earlier, the extratropical system that effected the Northwest US seems to have originated from one of the tropical depressions that formed in the wpac about 1 and a half weeks ago
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2005DEC20 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:06:38 S Lon : 178:36:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -33.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.9C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 12:18:36 S Lon: 178:23:59 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #1
=============================
At 0:00 am UTC, Tropical Cyclone Five had 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is moving west at 10 knots.

05P is expected to be 200 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji Island in 48 hours.

Significant wave height associated with 05P is 8 feet. The next tropical cyclone warning is later today at 1500 UTC.
Wow what an amazing and yet devastating update in the PAC Coast! Dr.M your pictures rival 456's. Great job and great work on everyone updating his blogs.
anyone knows what happened to GOES...all images end at 1645 UTC
If possible, avoid Seattle-Portland highway travel until floods recede. Rivers and streams continue to rise and additional highway and mountain pass closures are expected. If you must go, stay on the interstates. Note that the interstate detour route is 440 miles, takes at least seven hours during good weather and traffic conditions and is vulnerable to winter closures near Snoqualmie Pass.

Talk about getting sidetracked take almost a day just on a detour!
Large Storm Pounds the Canadian Maritimes

Highest Gusts Today
Buoy 44150 - 50 Knots
Buoy 44139 - 47 Knots
Buoy 44138 - 43 Knots
Buoy 44141 - 41 Knots
SABLE, Canada (WSA) - 48 Knots
BACCARO POINT, Canada (WCP) - 51 Knots




lost track of the time...later
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04F DAMAN [CAT 1]
12.1ºS 177.7ºE - 35 knots 995 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Daman [995 hPa] centered at 12.1S 177.7E as of 0200 UTC. Cyclone is intensifying with expected sustained winds of 35 to 40 knots close to the center increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect Gale Winds within 90 miles of the center in the eastern semi-circle.

Forecast position
=====================
near 12.9S 175.5E at 1400 UTC [05 Dec]
near 14.2S 174.3E at 0200 UTC [06 Dec]
we didn't get as much from it on the Mendocino coast of California, but were pounded by some of the winds and rains yesterday. *whew* Am glad it's over. . .!!

Feather
Yo guys. Did you catch that dis kine storm is called a "Pineapple Express." Temp went from 28 on Saturday to 58 Monday. That tail you see and mention is typical when one of these events happens. The Columbus Day Storm I mentioned yesterday formed from remnants of a typhoon. "Pineapple Express" is a regular pattern for Pac NW, though usually not so severe.
Hi Barefoot!
Wow, was this ever a Pineapple Express!! Hope things settle down in the Northwest for a while...this flooding is bad enough. Winds were incredible on parts of the OR coast. We've been out to Cape Meares...wouldn't want to be there with 114 mph gusts!!

A pair of storms that slammed into the Pacific Northwest had much of the region under water Tuesday, leaving five people dead, thousands without power and major highways shut down
Well done article... They got slammed.


Big wave surfer dies at famed Ghost Trees surf spot
By RON HARRIS


SAN FRANCISCO

A big wave rider died Tuesday at the unforgiving surf break known as Ghost Trees, a Monterey County spot known for its fast-moving 20-foot and better waves.

Peter Davi, 45, of Monterey, lost his surfboard and was attempting to swim to shore, but never made it, witnesses told authorities. Friends of Davi lost sight of him and later found him floating in the water unconscious.


273. H2PV
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1205/p02s01-usgn.html


New report ranks U.S. teens 29th in science worldwide

"What once was the gold standard [for international education] is now not even at the OECD average, which shows you how much the world has changed," says Andreas Schleicher, who helped write the report. The US is average in the number of students at the highest levels of scientific literacy, but has a much larger pool – nearly 1 in 4 – at the bottom, Mr. Schleicher notes. "We have stand-alone studies that suggest these kids have grim prospects in the labor market," he says.
RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04F DAMAN [CAT 1]
12.3S 177.2E - 40 knots 990 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Daman [990 hPa] reported centered at 12.3S 177.2E as of 0600 UTC. Cyclone is intensifying with expected sustained winds of 40 knots close to the center increasing to 50 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect Gale Winds within 90 miles of the center in the eastern semi-circle.

Low Level Circulation Center just northeast of Rotuma. Overall organization good. Convective tops cooling over central feature. Outflow good to north and south. Dvorak Based on 0.7 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, yielding a Dvorak Intensity of 3.0. PAT agree but MET remains at 2.5, thus T3.0/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS.

System lies just south of a 250 hPa outflow axis downstream of an approaching short wave upper trough. Cyclone Daman is being steered west-southwest by a mid level ridge to the southeast. It is expected to gradually turn southward and last southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Global models agree on this track projection with some intensification

Forecast position and Intensity
=====================
13.1S 175.3E 45 kts
14.6S 174.8E 50 kts

Special Weather Bulletin for Rotuma
====================================
Expect winds over Rotuma to be damaging gale force with average wind speeds to 40 knots and momentary gusts to 55 knots. Frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Sea flooding of low lying coastal area expected.

Gale Warning remains in force for Rotuma

The following information is provided especially for the mariner: Expect damaging gale force winds within 90 miles of center. Very Rough to high Seas with damaging heavy swells are likely.
Morning Folks

Mornin', Mr.Bone.
There is plenty Pacific weather going on recently, with grief and hardship in the Maritimes apparently. Not nice.
The good news is, that there is a load of moisture in the Atlantic, heading my way, and we could use some of that rain here.
With luck, it will fill my new 1000 gal. watertank that I put up last week, before the dryseason arrives, " officialy ". Its been a dry wet season.
pottery I hope you get the rain thats needed. I know for you folks in the islands most if not all of you reley on that water tank so any moisture would be a big help.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.
NEwxguy are you anywhere around that tanker explosion?? If you are I hope your safe!!!
Thanks, Bone.
BBL to see whats going on. You have a good one today...
Daman looking impressive

Possible eye feature

I would like to know if anyone else is having the same problem with GOES-12/GOES-EAST Images not updating.
yea weather nothing since dec 4 16:45z
ok..thanks
CDO Pattern taking shape


Subject: GOES-12 North-South Station Keeping maneuver (EXTENDED) UPDATE 1230
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------060302090207030708060409
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

*Details of the Outage:
*

A GOES-12 North-South Station Keeping maneuver will be performed on
Tuesday, December 4, 2007 at 1756 UTC.

*From 1715 UTC through 1944 UTC -- No GOES-12 Imaging or Soundings*

*EXTENDED: 12/4/2007, 1941 UTC, 2:41 PM, EST: *The SOCC supervisor
called ESPC
and said the GOES-12 maneuver will be extended until further notice
because they are having
problems coming out of the maneuver.

*UPDATE: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still ongoing, we are not receiving
GOES-12 (EAST) data until further notice. We are taking in FULL DISK
images on GOES-11 (WEST) until the problem is resolved.

NOTE: Low Cloud Base Data to AWIPS is unrelated to the GOES-12 Anomaly.
Work is being done to resolve the problem as soon as possible.

UPDATE: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still ongoing. Problem is still being
investigated.

*****_UPDATE J-DATE 339 1230 UTC_: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still
ongoing, we are not receiving GOES-12 (EAST) data until further
notice. NOAA is looking into using GOES-10 for GOES-12(EAST)
operations.****
*
*
**Data Affected by the Outage:

*GOES-12 (East) Imaging and Soundings data

*Date and Time of the Outage:
*
12/4/2007, 1715 UTC, 12:15 PM, EST

*Length of the Outage:
*
Until further notice
thats great. they loose GOES-12. Well at least its not hurricane season
Bone, I think they planned it that way...seems I read something early in the season about the need for an "On-Station Correction"...
gotcha Flood. Just funny that they can not pull it out of the manuver. Just like yesterday when almost every NEXRAD station went down at 15Z then came back a few minutes later.

CDO Pattern CI number = Central Feature plus Banding Feature

Central Feature = about 1 degree latitude - CF 2.5

Banding Feature = BF 1.0

CI = 2.5 plus 1.0 = 3.5

3.5 corresponds to 55 Knots/984 mb





That's eerie and some small cause for concern; NEXRAD shouldn't have problems like that. Makes me wonder what was going on (being an old IT guy with a bent towards Information Security it's a troubling event to me)
Look at this:

Gm all,no Bone,the city of everett is a bout 10 miles away,thankfully it looks like no serious injuries,but that must have been scary for the local neighborhood,people were running from flaming rivers of gasoline.
Southern facing coasts of Hawaii

Today
Very windy with large choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Large short period wind waves.
Winds: W 21 to 28 knots
Seas: W 14 feet at 9 sec.

2Morrow
Windy conditions with choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Large long period swell.
Winds: WSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: NNW 13 feet at 14 sec.
New Blog

Glad to hear NE
quiet here today
are the models still holding on to that storm for the 16th
Old blog rules!
old blog