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Huge sandstorm paralyzes Iraq, Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:58 PM GMT on April 13, 2011

A massive sandstorm enveloped Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq today, bringing air traffic to a halt and shutting down oil exports from Kuwait. The sandstorm hit Kuwait City between 5am and 6am local time, and by 6:30am, visibility had plunged to 200 meters (656 feet) at Kuwait airport, under a stiff north wind of 20 mph and a temperature of 74°F (23°C). The sandstorm hit Basra, Iraq at the same time, dropping visibility to just 50 meters (164 feet) at the airport.


Figure 1. An intense sandstorm spread dust over northern Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, and northwards across Iraq to the Caspian Sea in this image taken on the afternoon of April 13, 2011. The nation of Kuwait is entirely covered by dust plumes in this image. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

The dust storm began on April 12, when the cold front trailing from a low pressure system moving across southern Turkey brought very strong westerly winds to Syria, kicking up huge amounts of suffocating dust. At 11am on April 12, winds in Damascus, Syria were 37 mph, gusting to 52 mph as the cold front passed through. As the cold front progressed to the southeast over Syria and Iraq, it kicked up additional dust from the deserts. The cold front and associated dust storm hit Baghdad, Iraq between 6pm and 7pm local time on April 12, with visibility plunging to 50 meters at the airport under northwest winds of 20 mph.

Jeff Masters
Night Sand Storm- Balad
Night Sand Storm- Balad
Air Force Hospital Joint Base Balad at night in a sand storm

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StAugustineFL:
A bit surprised to see discussion of the tropics when potentially the largest severe weather outbreak of the season is underway. JMO

It is kinda like when you tune into a sports talk station during the 7th game of the World Series only to hear callers asking who the Dolphins are going to take in the fourth round of the spring draft...but then again, it's all weather, so it's all good. ;-)
502. beell
Quoting StAugustineFL:
A bit surprised to see discussion of the tropics when potentially the largest severe weather outbreak of the season is underway. JMO


I'll chime in also. Something for everybody here. That's what makes it a good site. Don't see anything you like-come back later!

And we may have to go some to equal or surpass 04/04/11.



503. beell
click for discussion
Quoting beell:


I'll chime in also. Something for everybody here. That's what makes it a good site. Don't see anything you like-come back later!

And we may have to go some to equal or surpass 04/04/11.





Agreed all, it is all about the weather. Guess I was just a little surprised not to see more focus on the severe weather situation. Anyhow...........cheers!
04/14/2011 0622 PM
4 miles S of Milburn, Johnston County.
Tornado, reported by trained spotter.Stovepipe tornado on ground.

04/14/2011 0623 PM
Tishomingo, Johnston County.
Hail e4.25 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
04/14/2011 0622 PM
4 miles S of Milburn, Johnston County.
Tornado, reported by trained spotter.Stovepipe tornado on ground.

04/14/2011 0623 PM
Tishomingo, Johnston County.
Hail e4.25 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.




Guess if you're outdoors, time to put on a batting helmet.
507. beell
Variety!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL SD / WRN NEB / FAR NERN CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

click for discussion
Yeah I have been studying the long-run NCEP/GFS models closely and just a few hours ago they were showing a possible subtropical storm near NC Outer Banks and a disturbance near Honduras but way out--however one thing they kept on showing and is actually forecast to happen in a week was a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific.

Quoting Neapolitan:
but then again, it's all weather, so it's all good. ;-)
Definitely better than politics or religion.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Definitely better than politics or religion.


LOL! You are not lying there.

Quoting hurricaneben:
one thing they kept on showing and is actually forecast to happen in a week was a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific.
Eh?


Bart Comstock has a tornado on his live-stream. Looks quite big.

*edit* he's leaving now. no longer on screen.
No politics or big bad corporations son of a _____! rofl
Quoting hurricaneben:
Yeah I have been studying the long-run NCEP/GFS models closely and just a few hours ago they were showing a possible subtropical storm near NC Outer Banks and a disturbance near Honduras but way out--however one thing they kept on showing and is actually forecast to happen in a week was a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific.


What I think is going to happen is all of that moisture may get pulled into the SE US. I know it's early to be seeing tropical potentials but like I've said we seem to be a month ahead of schedule when it comes to the tropics.
Huge tornadoes on the ground right now in Oklahoma!
Quoting Neapolitan:

If I wish to risk contracting cancer by eating a Big Bucket of KFC every night--or smoking three packs of Marlboros a day, or spending four hours at the beach every afternoon with no sunscreen--that's my own individual (albeit very stupid) choice. On the other hand, however, if I get cancer because the environment is despoiled through corporate malfeasance or neglect, that's not my choice, but rather some CEO's.

That doesn't sit well with me.

Yes, people die every day from self-induced stupidity. But when a Fukushima happens--or a Chernobyl, or a Three Mile Island, or a Deepwater Horizon, or an Exxon Valdez, or a Texas City, or a Bhopal, or a Triangle Shirtwaist, or an Enschede, or an Aberfan, or a Minamata--it's doubtful any/many of those killed or injured would have intentionally and knowingly participated. (And, sure as clockwork, after every one of those events, corporate shills have been quick to proclaim, "Oh, dear us, there is no way anyone could have ever anticipated such a thing happen, oh heavens no!")

I've seen several comments here along the lines of, "No one is going to be able to spot any Fukushima-linked cancers against the background noise of so many other cancers". That may or may not be true...but I can promise you that's precisely what TEPCO and the rest of the pro-nuclear crowd are counting on. I have to say, though, so far as legal defenses go, "Well, they were all going to die anyway" is pretty damn rotten.

(I also read things such as the line you wrote: "Skin is pretty good at healing from low-energy and/or low-level radiation damage". That may very well be true--but I don't want anyone doing unauthorized medical experiments on me. Do you?)


Oh they knew it could happen. They even had reports that said it was a possible scenario complete with recommendations on how to address safety concerns in such a scenario. They didn't listen. They got screwed, along with anyone else living around the reactors.

But to address your other remarks, how many carcinogens were produced/released in the production of that computer your using? How about the electricity you're using to power it? How about the car you drive or the gasoline you use? What about the construction materials used for your house? The asphalt for the roads?

What about your neighbors? What about your friends? Strange how you seem so much against nuclear power, but don't seem too focused on just how much pollution is being produced on your behalf. Pollution which, by the way, is far more likely to induce cancer or some other disease in someone than Fukishima will.

If we eliminated a lot of our modern conveniences we could not only reduce cancer rates but more than likely reduce a whole host of other increased risks of diseases as well. But what would the costs be? Would more people suffer and die from a lack of modern technology than they would from the increased risk caused by those implements?

Do the benefits of nuclear power outweigh the risks and drawbacks posed by alternatives?

Sorry, but you've been part of "unauthorized medical experiments" all your life. And you're an active contributor as well. The only difference here is that you accept the risks and consequences associated with modern technology as reasonable while deeming the risks of nuclear power as unreasonable.

Quoting RastaSteve:


LOL! You are not lying there.
Don't get me wrong. I love discussion pertinent to those topics, especially religion. But a weather blog is not the place.
I think tomorrow's outbreak will be worse in MISS, AL, LA, & NW GA.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Eh?




Eh.


Quoting RastaSteve:


He's right!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/fp1_216.shtml
Yeah, but he said a week, which is 168 hours.
DR. Forbes is worried that tonight could be deadly in ARK, NE TX, and LA.
Quoting Levi32:


Eh.



Hi Levi32, is a situation like this even plausible because the GFS continue to show something developingt in the E PAC over the next 7 to 10 days? Interested to hear your take.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Hi Levi32, is a situation like this even plausible because the GFS continue to show something developingt in the E PAC over the next 7 to 10 days? Interested to hear your take.


It's rather unlikely this early. Then again, you can actually see the low pressure area the GFS is referring to already rotating despite being below 5N latitude. If it gains some latitude and maintains convection it might be worth watching.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


To demonstrate the difficulty in making such a claim, look at the long term studies of Chernobyl. There have been several. One claims that 300,000 people died as a result of Chernobyl. Several others report that at most 10,000 have died. And still another claims over a million. All of these reports are controversial. The problem here is one of attribution. It can take a decade or several decades for cancer to form, and determining what was the driving factor is not nearly so clean cut as people think it is. Did you develop that lung cancer from smoking or from breathing in asbestos? Is your leukemia genetic? Do you work with hazardous chemicals? Is their a coal plant nearby? Do you live by a refinery? So on and so forth. There are hundreds of environmental and genetic factors that contribute to whether you develop cancer or not, and radiation isn't nearly as carcinogenic as some other materials you can get your hands on. It takes quite a bit of radiation to spike your chances of developing cancer.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
Even if it ends up being only 10,000 people, that would still be a ridiculous number. However, I'm guessing it will be a bit more than 10,000 if they're already guessing 400,000.


But to think you said just the other day that nuclear accidents rarely cause any deaths. oh lordy. Pile on the fact that the 30km radius around the plant will basically become massive ground zero for the next century due to the effects of radiation and hopefully you can understand why I do not support nuclear energy.




I only see nuclear energy as an easy way out. Hopefully renewables will become cheaper and more efficient in the near future so we can forget about nuclear fission all together.
One thing to watch is when the models start trying to push the tropical ridge northward into the Caribbean, which the GFS keeps trying to do by the beginning of May. This would signal the time when we will have to start watching for early-season activity in the area that the ridge envelops.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


If Yellowstone really blows there will not be any nearby places to flee to. Pretty much the entire western half of the US will be under ash, if I recall correctly. Good thing it's a 1 in 600,000 years event.
Someone said the last eruption was 648,000 years ago..And its true, there are not that many volcanoes on the Earth as large as the Yellowstone Caldera. ...If it were to erupt, the consequences would be at the very least catastrophic.
hook echo more profound than ever for cell H-1, could be a monster, look out, Atoko, OK
Hey everyone, have been looking and comparing 2011 & 2010 SST's and it seems that even though 2010 was active(cape verde wise; 8 cape verde storms) I think we should see more home grown storms that will rapidly intensify, due to maturely warm Gulf waters. and it seems like 2010 and 2011 have the same amount of warm waters, but 2011's warmth is shifted toward the west, and with 2011's warmth shoved into the Early season breeding grounds storms will be capable of forming, and through May and June the East will warm( this was exactly the opposite in 2010; the waters warmed in the West)

Look at that 2011 warmth!


2010 focusing on the West
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Oh they knew it could happen. They even had reports that said it was a possible scenario complete with recommendations on how to address safety concerns in such a scenario. They didn't listen. They got screwed, along with anyone else living around the reactors.

But to address your other remarks, how many carcinogens were produced/released in the production of that computer your using? How about the electricity you're using to power it? How about the car you drive or the gasoline you use? What about the construction materials used for your house? The asphalt for the roads?

What about your neighbors? What about your friends? Strange how you seem so much against nuclear power, but don't seem too focused on just how much pollution is being produced on your behalf. Pollution which, by the way, is far more likely to induce cancer or some other disease in someone than Fukishima will.

If we eliminated a lot of our modern conveniences we could not only reduce cancer rates but more than likely reduce a whole host of other increased risks of diseases as well. But what would the costs be? Would more people suffer and die from a lack of modern technology than they would from the increased risk caused by those implements?

Do the benefits of nuclear power outweigh the risks and drawbacks posed by alternatives?

Sorry, but you've been part of "unauthorized medical experiments" all your life. And you're an active contributor as well. The only difference here is that you accept the risks and consequences associated with modern technology as reasonable while deeming the risks of nuclear power as unreasonable.

Hey, Xyrus. Again, you're trying to make the argument that since many of the everyday things in our lives produce carcinogens, we should all just shut up about the Fukushima catastrophe and let the nuclear energy "experts" take care of things.

Uh, thanks, but no.

Are you under the assumption that the reason there are such exacting design standards for nuclear plants--such rigorous regulations, such stringent security measures, such in-depth, mandatory training of personnel, and so on--is simply because of the meddling of us ignorant civilians? Do you believe that nuclear power generation is intrinsically no more dangerous than the manufacture of my computer keyboard or the drywall in my home, and as such is only so closely watched because us stupidly nervous nellies force it to be watched? Because I don't believe that. Not for a minute.

The process of nuclear fission is technologically fascinating, and to our earlier selves it would seem indistinguishable from magic. And like any real or imagined magic, it's got the ability to be both boon and boondoggle, both help and hindrance, both bringer of life and bringer of death. The manufacture of computer keyboards doesn't carry that weight, that stigma. Neither does the manufacture of drywall, or cars, or road asphalt. To claim those activities share nuclear fission power's ability to maim and kill is disingenuous at best, and possibly far more than that, and far worse.

You asked: "Do the benefits of nuclear power outweigh the risks and drawbacks posed by alternatives?" No. Absolutely not. And my own question: "Do the benefits of nuclear power outweigh its own risks and drawbacks?" And the answer to that is also no. Nuclear fission power was given its chance. In the eyes of many, it failed. It's time to move on. But, as with strip mining for coal or oil shale, every cent spent on trying to make nuclear both viable and "safe enough" is a cent not being spent on better, cleaner, and less destructive means of energy generation. The cost of a single nuclear plant is more than most countries spend seeking alternatives. It's time to change that calculus.

At the very least, "Well, they were all gonna die anyway" seems a very poor epitaph for the future victims of Fukushima.

(By the way, it's silly to claim that I "don't seem too focused on just how much pollution is being produced on my behalf"; if you've read any of my many GW comments, you know where I stand on that, and how I've adjusted my lifestyle because I do care.)
Quoting RastaSteve:


What I think is going to happen is all of that moisture may get pulled into the SE US. I know it's early to be seeing tropical potentials but like I've said we seem to be a month ahead of schedule when it comes to the tropics.
Yep, Sure is. SST's in the Gulf are a month ahead, Patterns are falling into place, Shear is backing off, Jet Stream Heading north for the Summer.
Brandon Sullivan has some great footage of a cell that has a rapidly rotating wall cloud right overhead of him! Looks like it really wants to drop a Tornado.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The problem wasn't the risk management in this case. It was how it was handled and executed. Ancient plants with outdated designs in a seismically active area already present a risk. When you add on history of safety violations, a disregard for recent safety recommendations, and continued use of a plant that should have been decommissioned already you really are tempting fate.

Quite frankly, after what the plants have been hit with and considering their age and history, I'm surprised they aren't glowing slag pits by now.

Good post. I believe the plants are designed to last for decades or even longer. As far as safety records and recommendations I have not had time to do research on it. As far as tempting fate, that occurred the second someone decided to build them in one of the most geologically active places on Earth...jmo
Yes!.Tropical discussion tonight!!.whohoo.I have some ideas about this season that I would like to discuss to all the tropic heads.
Quoting IceCoast:
Brandon Sullivan has some great footage of a cell that has a rapidly rotating wall cloud right overhead of him! Looks like it really wants to drop a Tornado.

Severe tornado damage on his live video now.
532. Neapolitan 8:27 PM EDT on April 14, 2011

Please adjust your lifestyle further and shut off you PC.

Here, something to take your mind off of those "we must live in caves" posts. Gheeze dude!

There is weather (landcanish) going on and a good, informative, blog in process.

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/ climate-science-myths-and-misconceptions-%E2%80%93 -post-2-on-the-metric-of-global-warming/
Statement as of 7:37 PM CDT on April 14, 2011


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 815 PM CDT for central
Atoka and southeastern Coal counties...

At 735 PM CDT... a large... violent tornado that has produced damage
was located just south of Atoka... moving northeast at 35 mph.
Persons in and near Atoka need to take immediate tornado
precautions! This is a life threatening situation!

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This tornado is likely obscured by rain and may not be visible.
Abandon Mobile homes and vehicles. If possible... move to a basement
or storm shelter. Otherwise move to an interior room or hallway on
the lowest floor. Stay away from windows.


Lat... Lon 3451 9566 3450 9567 3450 9578 3427 9577
      3430 9615 3432 9620 3445 9621 3461 9584
      3460 9568 3459 9567
time... Mot... loc 0035z 241deg 34kt 3436 9609
Quoting Ameister12:

Severe tornado damage on his live video now.


Yup was just about to mention that. Looks like it did a number on that building unfortunately and they are checking to see if anyone is inside.
Quite impressive looking...
Oh please, i have absolutely no sympathy for saudi arabia. Here in Lamesa Texas it has been blowing like that for a very long time. Hardly any rain since october. Its a once or twice a week occurrence here.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Even if it ends up being only 10,000 people, that would still be a ridiculous number. However, I'm guessing it will be a bit more than 10,000 if they're already guessing 400,000.


But to think you said just the other day that nuclear accidents rarely cause any deaths. oh lordy. Pile on the fact that the 30km radius around the plant will basically become massive ground zero for the next century due to the effects of radiation and hopefully you can understand why I do not support nuclear energy.




I only see nuclear energy as an easy way out. Hopefully renewables will become cheaper and more efficient in the near future so we can forget about nuclear fission all together.


One person speculated that it could be 400,000. There hasn't been any scientific study I'm aware of that lends any credence to that number or any other number. It could be 1,000,000 or it could be zero depending on what happens and how it is handled. The disaster isn't over yet, and until it is and more information is collected there won't be any reliable numbers about cancer rates or whether they will be affected at all.

And no, I said nuclear power rarely causes any deaths. Nuclear accidents, like any other accident, will kill people. The longer term death toll from a nuclear accident depends on exposure, evacuation, monitoring and even then attribution is difficult at best.

And the "massive ground zero" depends on what the area has been contaminated with and how much. So far, it seems radioactive Iodine has been the largest constituent of the contamination, which means in a few months it may be possible to resettle (assuming the situation gets taken care off). However, if the longer lived elements exceed limits then it may be 30 years or more.

I, too, hope renewables reach the point where they can replace our current crop of energy plants. I also hope the ITER fusion generator turns out to be workable, as that would be the best possible power producer. The problem is between then and now the world's energy consumption is going to continue increasing and at an accelerated rate as countries like India and China catch up to the "western" style of living.

I support nuclear power, but only "new" nuclear power, i.e. passive cooling designs, thorium fuel cycle designs, etc. . Power plants that are physically incapable of reaching a meltdown state. The current crop of 30+ year old plants need to go, especially ones in unstable environments

Even China and India realize that fossil fuels are a serious problem and are dumping piles of money into new tech nuclear power and renewables. Seems like they're going to beat us in that department there as well.
Right about dead center now...<>img src="http:
Quoting hydrus:
Quite impressive looking...


That front is making a good 'nado salad.
Half of evacuees have no means to support themselves

About half of those who are staying at evacuation shelters after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami have been left with no means to support themselves, a Mainichi survey has revealed.

Around two-thirds of respondents said they have no place to stay if they leave makeshift shelters while it is difficult for nearly 60 percent of them to rebuild and repair their damaged homes.
Results of GFS runs:
00z~ EPAC Storm (Adrian) gets a tug NE by a front and forms. It hits central america, This causes a low formation in the gulf, which then runs over central america going ESE, and the end shows the Low East of the Yucatan.

06z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) Gets a tug to the NE and forms, but the front is doesn't have a good enough pull to make it hit Central america. Adrian turns back to the west, and remains alive at the end of the run running on the west coast of Mexico.

12z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) gets pulled NE and becomes Adrian, before being pulled over central america very briefly, and then reemerges over the west caribbean and is declared Arlene.

18z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) Forms and get pulled by a front NE into central america, and over the Yucatan. When the remnants emerge over the Northwest caribbean the low attempts to form, but is overpowered by a front.

So basically all the runs call for Adrian in the EPAC, and one calls for Arlene. Pretty interesting the GFS going for the Early season storm approach on both sides of the US.
Quoting hydrus:
Right about dead center now...
i like to call it drop dead centre

04/14/2011 0723 PM
3 miles N of Caney, Atoka County.
Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.
Numerous storm chaser and media reports of a large tornado with damage north of Caney near Tushka and Atoka.



Good Evening.
The rains over the last 2 days in Barbados, Grenada, St. Vincent, the Grenadines and other Islands in the south-eastern Caribbean have caused Landslides, flooding, and general Bad stuff.

These are particularly UNSEASONAL rains, and were torrential for several hours.

Very peculiar weather....
That's a very meteorologically cool situation going on in the plains. Water vapor shows the upper low centered on about the center of western Kansas, but surface obs show the surface low closer to the Kansas/Nebraska border, offset to the north of the upper low. This means cold air advection at the surface is charging into warm, moist air in eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas at the same time that the upper low is starting to move overhead with cold air aloft. This is resulting in the explosive development of that squall line due to the strong lift and buoyancy of the air.



Quoting Xyrus2000:


That front is making a good 'nado salad.
I hope my house is not in the spring mix tomorrow....Get it.? Spring mix...:)

Quoting pottery:
Good Evening.
The rains over the last 2 days in Barbados, Grenada, St. Vincent, the Grenadines and other Islands in the south-eastern Caribbean have caused Landslides, flooding, and general Bad stuff.

These are particularly UNSEASONAL rains, and were torrential for several hours.

Very peculiar weather....
A harbinger of things to come?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Results of GFS runs:
00z~ EPAC Storm (Adrian) gets a tug NE by a front and forms. It hits central america, This causes a low formation in the gulf, which then runs over central america going ESE, and the end shows the Low East of the Yucatan.

06z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) Gets a tug to the NE and forms, but the front is doesn't have a good enough pull to make it hit Central america. Adrian turns back to the west, and remains alive at the end of the run running on the west coast of Mexico.

12z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) gets pulled NE and becomes Adrian, before being pulled over central america very briefly, and then reemerges over the west caribbean and is declared Arlene.

18z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) Forms and get pulled by a front NE into central america, and over the Yucatan. When the remnants emerge over the Northwest caribbean the low attempts to form, but is overpowered by a front.

So basically all the runs call for Adrian in the EPAC, and one calls for Arlene. Pretty interesting the GFS going for the Early season storm approach on both sides of the US.


early season activity is highly likly

iam planning on a complete reformat of my blog page to a full tropical layout starting this weekend stay tune for some early season surprizes coming soon
559. beell
Quoting Levi32:
That's a very meteorologically cool situation going on in the plains. Water vapor shows the upper low centered on about the center of western Kansas, but surface obs show the surface low closer to the Kansas/Nebraska border, offset to the north of the upper low. This means cold air advection at the surface is charging into warm, moist air in eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas at the same time that the upper low is starting to move overhead with cold air aloft. This is resulting in the explosive development of that squall line due to the strong lift and buoyancy of the air.





That's what a negative tilt trough will do. Place the cold air aloft more directly underneath the lower level WAA.

Let me try that again, lol.
Place the cold air aloft directly over the lower level WAA.

""

Video posted to YouTube captures the Empire State Building being hit by lightning three times during Wednesday night's storm.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2011/04/14/201 1-04-14_amazing_video_shows_empire_state_building_ get_hit_by_lightning_three_times.html#ixzz1JY9pmKC x
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening.
The rains over the last 2 days in Barbados, Grenada, St. Vincent, the Grenadines and other Islands in the south-eastern Caribbean have caused Landslides, flooding, and general Bad stuff.

These are particularly UNSEASONAL rains, and were torrential for several hours.

Very peculiar weather....
nothing stays the same everything changes over time

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Results of GFS runs:
00z~ EPAC Storm (Adrian) gets a tug NE by a front and forms. It hits central america, This causes a low formation in the gulf, which then runs over central america going ESE, and the end shows the Low East of the Yucatan.

06z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) Gets a tug to the NE and forms, but the front is doesn't have a good enough pull to make it hit Central america. Adrian turns back to the west, and remains alive at the end of the run running on the west coast of Mexico.

12z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) gets pulled NE and becomes Adrian, before being pulled over central america very briefly, and then reemerges over the west caribbean and is declared Arlene.

18z~ The EPAC storm (Adrian) Forms and get pulled by a front NE into central america, and over the Yucatan. When the remnants emerge over the Northwest caribbean the low attempts to form, but is overpowered by a front.

So basically all the runs call for Adrian in the EPAC, and one calls for Arlene. Pretty interesting the GFS going for the Early season storm approach on both sides of the US.
Wow you pretty much just described last years Agatha, quick formation then a move over Central America before emerging into the Caribbean.
Quoting KoritheMan:

A harbinger of things to come?
Definitely some convection around Africa....Nice blob there in the Gulf of Guinea over the Cameroon Volcano Line...
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 09-20102011
4:00 AM RET April 15 2011
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression 9 (995 hPa) located at 32.2S 47.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 300 NM in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 33.6S 47.3E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS: 35.7S 48.9E - 35 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
48 HRS: 41.4S 56.1E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 41.9S 63.6E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system has clearly intensified for the last 6 hours with convection wrapping almost around the low level center. Now the structure is quite similar to a tropical structure, but with radius of maximum winds very large. ASCAT swath 1801z shows the wind strengthening with greater extensions in the southern semi-circle with the gradient effect. At 2300z Buoy 17665 measured a 995 hPa pressure very closely from the center.

Yesterday the system has regularly tracked south southwestward on the western edge of a mid-tropospheric ridge. It should recurve southward then southeastward within the next hours towards a mid-tropospheric trough passing in the south.

The system is tracking over low energetic potential seas (24-25C), but under the axis of a large high tropospheric trough. So during the next 12 - 18 hours, vertical wind shear should remain weak with good upper level divergence that will preserve convection. Thus, system intensity is not expected to change significantly within the next 24 hours. Beyond, upper level vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system could become extratropical under the influence of the westerly mid-latitudes circulation.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Quoting Ossqss:
532. Neapolitan 8:27 PM EDT on April 14, 2011

Please adjust your lifestyle further and shut off you PC.

Here, something to take your mind off of those "we must live in caves" posts. Gheeze dude!

There is weather (landcanish) going on and a good, informative, blog in process.

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/ climate-science-myths-and-misconceptions-%E2%80%93 -post-2-on-the-metric-of-global-warming/

So if I'm unhappy with a particular industry polluting the planet on which I live, my only option is to simply unplug and shut up? Hmmm. No, I don't think so; that seems a little un-American to me. I think instead I'll continue to do my part to try to encourage responsibility. I suggest everyone do the same.

Oh, by the way: I'd be happy to read the post to which you linked, but as I've said before, my computer's anti-BS software won't let me open up garbage from the likes of Pielke; I can only access actual science sites. Sorry. ;-)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Cool pic PR...
Remember in nutreal years we tend to get an early start.Although I still think we won't see our first storm until maybe say....June.
Quoting KoritheMan:

A harbinger of things to come?

Really hope NOT!
Dont need any problems down here this season.
Send them all to the Fish Kingdom....
04/14/2011 0816 PM
9 miles W of Dunbar, Pushmataha County.
Tornado, reported by trained spotter.
Preliminary report. Tornado 5s Daisy along Indian nation Turnpike.

04/14/2011 0816 PM
9 miles W of Dunbar, Pushmataha County.
Hail e4.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.
Softball and baseball hail reported with tornado 5s Daisy along Indian nation Turnpike
Quoting washingtonian115:
Remember in nutreal years we tend to get an early start.Although I still think we won't see our first storm until maybe say....June.
And in nutreal years, we get real peanut butter instead of artificial...:)....Good evening 115...:)
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening.
The rains over the last 2 days in Barbados, Grenada, St. Vincent, the Grenadines and other Islands in the south-eastern Caribbean have caused Landslides, flooding, and general Bad stuff.

These are particularly UNSEASONAL rains, and were torrential for several hours.

Very peculiar weather....

Hey All!!
Yes it's been looking way more tropical than normal for this time of year..a trough behaving like a tropical wave only it's been hanging over us and going back and forth. We have had a lot of hooks and some water spouts too. Shear has kept if from developing but with our 27-28 deg SST's and at time but the Perturbations along the low level wind shear line looked like it was trying to form a surface low or sub tropical for a while. Regardless we had a bad drought..now we have flash floods..but better now than later when the shear is missing.
Quoting hydrus:
Definitely some convection around Africa....Nice blob there in the Gulf of Guinea over the Cameroon Volcano Line...

Indeed!
Been looking at Africa recently, and noting ITCZ activity there and also northern South America.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I, too, hope renewables reach the point where they can replace our current crop of energy plants. I also hope the ITER fusion generator turns out to be workable, as that would be the best possible power producer. The problem is between then and now the world's energy consumption is going to continue increasing and at an accelerated rate as countries like India and China catch up to the "western" style of living.

I support nuclear power, but only "new" nuclear power, i.e. passive cooling designs, thorium fuel cycle designs, etc. . Power plants that are physically incapable of reaching a meltdown state. The current crop of 30+ year old plants need to go, especially ones in unstable environments

Even China and India realize that fossil fuels are a serious problem and are dumping piles of money into new tech nuclear power and renewables. Seems like they're going to beat us in that department there as well.

xyrus, I don't really feel like arguing about the top half of that post, because I agree with all of this (the bottom half of the post).

I suppose if I had to support any form of nuclear power, it would be "new" nuclear power you refer too.
Quoting pottery:

Indeed!
Been looking at Africa recently, and noting ITCZ activity there and also northern South America.
It will be interesting to see what eventually happens to that moisture plume that has been soaking you and your neighbors to the north..I hope Texas gets it and not us...
Quoting hydrus:
And in nutreal years, we get real peanut butter instead of artificial...:)....Good evening 115...:)
Quoting TomTaylor:

xyrus, I don't really feel like arguing about the top half of that post, because I agree with all of this (the bottom half of the post).

I suppose if I had to support any form of nuclear power, it would be "new" nuclear power you refer too.

Looks like someone lost the argument, as it could not become more clear. Yeah, let's argue all day about this till we're blue in the face, when it's clear we feel completely different upon the subject. But THEN, just then, a convenient, "Oh, I tired, so I'm just going to agree with you" comes into play.

YAH.....you sure sold me there.
Climate Change from Black Carbon Depends on Altitude

ScienceDaily (Apr. 14, 2011) — Scientists have known for decades that black carbon aerosols add to global warming. These airborne particles made of sooty carbon are believed to be among the largest human-made contributors to global warming because they absorb solar radiation and heat the atmosphere. New research from Carnegie's Long Cao and Ken Caldeira, along with colleagues George Ban-Weiss and Govindasamy Bala, quantifies how black carbon's impact on climate depends on its altitude in the atmosphere.

Link
<
Interesting
Solar Power Without Solar Cells: A Hidden Magnetic Effect of Light Could Make It Possible

ScienceDaily (Apr. 14, 2011) — A dramatic and surprising magnetic effect of light discovered by University of Michigan researchers could lead to solar power without traditional semiconductor-based solar cells.

The researchers found a way to make an "optical battery," said Stephen Rand, a professor in the departments of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Physics and Applied Physics.

In the process, they overturned a century-old tenet of physics.

"You could stare at the equations of motion all day and you will not see this possibility. We've all been taught that this doesn't happen," said Rand, an author of a paper on the work published in the Journal of Applied Physics. "It's a very odd interaction. That's why it's been overlooked for more than 100 years."

Light has electric and magnetic components. Until now, scientists thought the effects of the magnetic field were so weak that they could be ignored. What Rand and his colleagues found is that at the right intensity, when light is traveling through a material that does not conduct electricity, the light field can generate magnetic effects that are 100 million times stronger than previously expected. Under these circumstances, the magnetic effects develop strength equivalent to a strong electric effect.

Link
Quoting Levi32:
One thing to watch is when the models start trying to push the tropical ridge northward into the Caribbean, which the GFS keeps trying to do by the beginning of May. This would signal the time when we will have to start watching for early-season activity in the area that the ridge envelops.


Even more so in the eastern pacific where the upper level winds are easterly so there is no shear. The ridge has a tendency to cap convection as well as act like a prefab anti cyclone. It's a bit of a balancing act you can see down here a lot of the time. The cumulus start to develop vertically and then just stop like they hit something. But if it's weak upper level high they just keep going.. looks like a lot of westerly shear over the GOM and Atlantic coasts and with the water temps there thats where I would look for the first development. Probably from a tail of a low pressure under a stalled upper level trough or cut off low. OR if the ridge moves NE so the upper level easterlies are over the Caribe. The colder water is still digging down out by the Cape Verdes so are not looking for any early activity from there.
Quoting InconceivableF6:

Looks like someone lost yet another argument, as it could not become more clear. Yeah, let's argue all day about this till we're blue in the face, when it's clear we feel completely different upon the subject. But THEN, just then, a convenient, "Oh, I tired, so I'm just going to agree with you" comes into play.

YAH.....you sure sold me there.
wtf are you talking about?

I still don't support nuclear power, I just know that it may become something we must do as the energy demands only increase, while oil supplies only decrease. Renewables are not very efficient at the moment, and are fairly expensive. Fusion would be the ultimate answer, but we can't do that yet without first investing more energy into the system then it puts out.

That's basically exactly what Xyrus said in the bottom half of his post (the quoted part), and I agree with all of that. Of course, getting nuclear plants fired up in the future will not be easy in the near future with the latest nuclear disaster.


As for the top half of his post, he claimed he said nuclear power and not nuclear accidents. I'm pretty sure, however, that we were talking about total deaths caused by the harnessing of relative available powers (ex: coal or oil vs nuclear). However, there is no need to continue nit picking and being critical. So I ended it there.

Why continue fighting when you already agree on what matters? ...that's not very intelligent
Quoting hydrus:
It will be interesting to see what eventually happens to that moisture plume that has been soaking you and your neighbors to the north..I hope Texas gets it and not us...
I've been having alot of rain in a short period of time.And more rain is on the way Saturday which have prompt flood watches.

Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
I've never seen that many overlapping warnings since they went to the new warning system instead of county-wide

What new warning system?
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL (29U)
11:00 AM CST April 15 2011
==========================================

At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category One (996 hPa) was located near 12.7S 126.1E, or 120 km north of Troughton Island and 185 km north northwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center in the northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in the southern quadrant

The cyclone may intensify further as it moves away from the Kimberley coast early on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay during today if the cyclone takes a more southwest track.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the far north Kimberley.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.7S 125.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 12.4S 124.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 10.9S 122.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 09.9S 120.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=========================

Position based on 2051UTC SSMIS fix showing tightly curved spiral banding. Radar animation indicates rotation around the centre in the mid-levels. Convective structure has improved significantly overnight with the development of curved bands and a comma-shaped central feature. Dvorak analysis based on 0.65 curved band wrap giving DT=3.0. MET=2.5 and FT=PAT=3.0. Surface observations at Troughton Island 120 km south of the centre have reached 28kt gusting 36kt at 00UTC. Pressure falls in the north Kimberley indicate system intensification and slow southwest movement overnight.

Model guidance at 1200UTC continues to forecast slow westward movement for first 6-12 hours as a mid-level trough passes to the south, then a steady WNW track under the influence of a strengthening ridge to the southwest. There is high confidence in the track forecast due to consistency between models. However, there is the possibility that a southwest movement may allow gales to affect the coast briefly later today.

Overall environment is favourable for further intensification with low vertical wind shear and good outflow in western and southern sectors. A strengthening low level ridge over WA is expected to increase vertical wind shear and cause dry air to affect the cyclone within 24-36hrs. Intensification at the standard rate is expected, then weakening as the cyclone moves closer to the eastern Indonesian islands.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin/Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Errol will be issued at 4:00 AM UTC..
Ignorant post, my bad.
594. xcool
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL (29U)
11:00 AM CST April 15 2011
==========================================

At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category One (996 hPa) was located near 12.7S 126.1E, or 120 km north of Troughton Island and 185 km north northwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center in the northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in the southern quadrant

The cyclone may intensify further as it moves away from the Kimberley coast early on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay during today if the cyclone takes a more southwest track.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the far north Kimberley.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.7S 125.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 12.4S 124.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 10.9S 122.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 09.9S 120.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=========================

Position based on 2051UTC SSMIS fix showing tightly curved spiral banding. Radar animation indicates rotation around the centre in the mid-levels. Convective structure has improved significantly overnight with the development of curved bands and a comma-shaped central feature. Dvorak analysis based on 0.65 curved band wrap giving DT=3.0. MET=2.5 and FT=PAT=3.0. Surface observations at Troughton Island 120 km south of the centre have reached 28kt gusting 36kt at 00UTC. Pressure falls in the north Kimberley indicate system intensification and slow southwest movement overnight.

Model guidance at 1200UTC continues to forecast slow westward movement for first 6-12 hours as a mid-level trough passes to the south, then a steady WNW track under the influence of a strengthening ridge to the southwest. There is high confidence in the track forecast due to consistency between models. However, there is the possibility that a southwest movement may allow gales to affect the coast briefly later today.

Overall environment is favourable for further intensification with low vertical wind shear and good outflow in western and southern sectors. A strengthening low level ridge over WA is expected to increase vertical wind shear and cause dry air to affect the cyclone within 24-36hrs. Intensification at the standard rate is expected, then weakening as the cyclone moves closer to the eastern Indonesian islands.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin/Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Errol will be issued at 4:00 AM UTC..

washingtonian115...is this a dangerous system?
Quoting sailingallover:

Even more so in the eastern pacific where the upper level winds are easterly so there is no shear. The ridge has a tendency to cap convection as well as act like a prefab anti cyclone. It's a bit of a balancing act you can see down here a lot of the time. The cumulus start to develop vertically and then just stop like they hit something. But if it's weak upper level high they just keep going.. looks like a lot of westerly shear over the GOM and Atlantic coasts and with the water temps there thats where I would look for the first development. Probably from a tail of a low pressure under a stalled upper level trough or cut off low. OR if the ridge moves NE so the upper level easterlies are over the Caribe. The colder water is still digging down out by the Cape Verdes so are not looking for any early activity from there.


A strong upper high is what we want for development. The only time it would cap convection is if it were a more deep-layer high extending down through 500mb. The high we're talking about here is a 200mb high that is generated from convection in the first place.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS Link
Quoting InconceivableF6:

washingtonian115...is this a dangerous system?
It's a category one(over there according to thier system).It's relitivley weak.Although we shouldn't be so quick to write off weak systems as they can cuase flooding.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's a category one(over there according to thier system).It's relitivley weak.Although we shouldn't be so quick to write off weak systems as they can cuase flooding.

True. Thank you :)

the other guy in the blog Haydegodwyvnn said it should probably weaken a bit on it's way to Indonesia,,so that's good news.

-Ainslie
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
602. beell
click for text
Quoting InconceivableF6:

True. Thank you :)

the other guy in the blog Haydegodwyvnn said it should probably weaken a bit on it's way to Indonesia,,so that's good news.

-Ainslie
Welcomed :)
TEXAS

""
Quoting washingtonian115:
Welcomed :)


W115....This is a good avatar....it shows up so clearly :)...yours
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


W115....This is a good avatar....it shows up so clearly :)...yours
Thanks.I had to reupload my pictures becuase some data was lost.
Sure are a lot of folks missing in action tonight...may be worn out from online tornado chasing......sure is fun, though ;]
613. xcool
When it comes to the Enso, My money is NOT on the CFS

By Joe Bastardi While I believe the nina fades, I have already taken a stand against and el nino and I believe the demise of the NIna is greatly exaggerated. I think this is very similar to the 07-08 event and the its the MEI and SOI that are telling tale. The CFS is a reactive, not proactive model, only reacting to what it sees of late and is unusually bad in actually seeing the kind of changes that actually occur. Case in point, the la nina that came on strong last year. Lets look at the FEB 2010 CFS for its 9 month forecast:






On valentines day 2010 I put out a forecast for a la nina coming on, a hot summer and a hurricane season of 16-18 with 6 or 7 impact storms on the us coast. 4 or 5 hurricanes. Obviously the impact was wrong but everything else was on ( except there were 19 storms) But it was on Valentines Day, February, when this had no hint of the La Nina. To refresh your memory, and look at the current forecast:




By October we had crashed to -1.5, a bust that should not occur on a climate model and by the way was seen much better by other models that I think have better physics in them.

Look at the JAMSTEC site from last February



going here.. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/
look at the big high!!
Hey xcool....TY for the visuals....I'm getting a little better at understanding some of them...lol..
Quoting Chicklit:
Wow

CentralConusLoop
look like a hurricane on land
Quoting Levi32:


A strong upper high is what we want for development. The only time it would cap convection is if it were a more deep-layer high extending down through 500mb. The high we're talking about here is a 200mb high that is generated from convection in the first place.

Levi in winter and early spring we almost always have a upper level high over us and it's outflow from the ITCZ. They have a capping effect. But this is early in the season so even a 200mb upper level high will have more of a capping effect than facilitating outflow.
Granted you only posted the 200mb chart looking at the 300Mb the high extends into it as well as the 500mb.
BUT
Lets look at the precip model...dry area in the center of the Caribe. so it's simply forcasting a mid-upper level high..
BUT
it's 15 days out and also forcasting a front to leave a bit of a remnant over Cuba and the Bahamas..
That has a slight chance of developing..the last link..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look like a hurricane on land


It sure does....
Anyway night all..
Levi if you want to come down hurricane season for a bit and watch the clouds let me know. It is interesting to see the Theory in action sometimes..and of course then there are always the exceptions..
Quoting Patrap:
Eastern U. S. - Rainbow Loop 996mb low


Hello Pat...I'm hoping this system doesnt come this far south .... still pretty spongy here...
Quoting sailingallover:

Levi in winter and early spring we almost always have a upper level high over us and it's outflow from the ITCZ. They have a capping effect. But this is early in the season so even a 200mb upper level high will have more of a capping effect than facilitating outflow.
Granted you only posted the 200mb chart looking at the 300Mb the high extends into it as well as the 500mb.
BUT
Lets look at the precip model...dry area in the center of the Caribe. so it's simply forcasting a mid-upper level high..
BUT
it's 15 days out and also forcasting a front to leave a bit of a remnant over Cuba and the Bahamas..
That has a slight chance of developing..the last link..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif


The 24-hour precipitation panel for Day 15 shows an area of low pressure with rainfall :/



I do see the weak high pressure signature at 500mb though, I'll give you that, but I think it's less of a capping deep-layer high because that's the ridge that noses up out of the monsoonal circulation that starts to develop over Panama in late April.
Quoting Ossqss:


Par for the course. You refuse to view the "at least 5" peer reviewed papers linked within that of which you diss. Let alone the NASA data?

LOL, how extreme are you?/?? So the other handle you post by is what ?

Don't worry, I will let folks figure it out for themselves :)

At least you are a consistent and predictable demagogue. Poetry in motion folks ~~~~~




No, I just refuse to read the same non-scientific gibberish written by the same discredited anti-science people; there's simply too much real science out there to keep up with. (I'll be glad to direct you to some pages if you'd like.)

"The other handle I post by"? See, just when I was beginning to talk to you again, you start back with the paranoid ad hominems. Keep it up, and you get a ticket back to Ignoristan--this time one-way. ;-)
Quoting sailingallover:
Anyway night all..
Levi if you want to come down hurricane season for a bit and watch the clouds let me know. It is interesting to see the Theory in action sometimes..and of course then there are always the exceptions..


I dream of visiting the tropics someday to see such things. It would be fascinating.

Have a good night.
10 tornado reports seems to few based on the scale of this system.
Oh no xcool.We all know how a certain blogger is when JB opinions are put on here.And it seems he has arrived.....
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hello Pat...I'm hoping this system doesnt come this far south .... still pretty spongy here...


Evening eyes2c

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
331 PM CDT Thursday Apr 14 2011


Short term...


A significant severe weather event looks to be shaping up for
portions of the forecast area tomorrow. All of the short term
models are in very agreement on the development of a favorable
thermodynamic and dynamic environment for severe thunderstorms
heading into tomorrow. Overall...the environment will be highly
sheared and highly unstable. All convective modes will be
supported...but the predominant features will be more linear in
nature. After reviewing model soundings at various locations...it
appears the highest threat for severe weather will be to the north
of the Interstate 10 corridor...with the highest risk over
southwest Mississippi and the Florida parishes.


Hodographs show some directional shear in the lowest 1-2
km...with strong speed shear noted above 2 km. Overall 0-6km shear is
over 40 knots and cape values are expected to be over 2000
j/kg...which would support the development of deep convection in
the region. The strongest shear is over northern areas with weaker
shear noted over the southshore and Baton Rouge areas.
Additionally...the soundings have a classic hour-glass shape which
supports the development of strong damaging winds. A strong 50+
knot jet streak extending down to around 700mb combined with dry
air in the middle-levels will support the development of strong Bow
echoes tomorrow afternoon...as the stronger winds aloft are
transported down to the surface. Decent lapse rates and cape
values in the hail formation zone between -10 to -30c will also
support the development of some larger hail. The tornado threat
will be lowest of all...mainly due to downdraft dominated systems
taking hold...but a few tornadoes could develop in storms ahead of
the main squall line...due to very low local levels and decent 0-3km
directional shear over our northeastern County Warning Area.


The models are also in good agreement on the timing of this
potential severe weather event. Expect initial convection to
develop in the late morning hours over our northwestern
zones...specifically near the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Convection
should then pull to the east through the afternoon hours...with
the strongest storms expected over the Mississippi coast by the
early evening hours.


The cold front and severe weather associated with the strong
occluded low pressure system over the Midwest will finally clear
the forecast area late tomorrow night as convection clears the
coastal waters. As the main upper level trough axis also pulls to
the east...a more zonal flow pattern will set up in the upper
levels across the area. In the low to middle levels...strong ridging
will take hold. Expect some cold air advection behind the
front...with readings falling back to near normal for Saturday and
Sunday. However...clear skies and light winds could lead to some
below normal overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday morning.
392
WFUS54 KSHV 150330
TORSHV
OKC089-150415-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0009.110415T0330Z-110415T0415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1027 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST
OF SMITHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BEACHTON...WATSON AND PLUNKETVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



LAT...LON 3451 9449 3451 9447 3450 9446 3434 9446
3433 9484 3451 9487 3452 9486 3452 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 263DEG 42KT 3446 9473



06


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
Quoting Patrap:
Central USA Storm Animated WunderMap®


WUNDERMAP is the one I watch the most....you can zoom in close enough to see your home area really good on the Terrain tab
backdooring nw
Quoting RTLSNK:


Does it ever stop raining there???
Conditions are getting ready for the Hurricane season (CV season); notice how the total prec. water area is gaining latitude from Africa.... Reaching and filling the Atlantic all the way up 10 N...
just think how dull weather-watching was before we had all the wonderful - colorful - animated graphics to capture our attention!
Oh, Lordy......lol...
can you guys see the images iam posting
Quoting AllyBama:
just think how dull weather-watching was before we had all the wonderful - colorful - animated graphics to capture our attention!


from one southern gal(Ms)to another.."ain't that the gospel truth" !!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
can you guys see the images iam posting


I see your post #641..about the "backdooring"

this system is really winding up! amazing to watch!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
can you guys see the images iam posting


Yup :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
can you guys see the images iam posting


Oh yeah...the ole backdoor swing
Shout,Shout,Let it all out.If you grew up in the 80's guess what song that comes from.
looks like some folks are going to have a long night...:(
I'm afraid the rest of tonight and especially tomorrow are going to be really bad for OK/AR/MS/AL/TN. That is one amazing low pressure system in the Heartland and hitting the Deep South at peak heating is going to make for a nasty combination.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I'm afraid the rest of tonight and especially tomorrow are going to be really bad for OK/AR/MS/AL/TN. That is one amazing low pressure system in the Heartland and hitting the Deep South at peak heating is going to make for a nasty combination.


I'm south of Brandon, Ms....are you up in north Ms?
Quoting MississippiWx:
I'm afraid the rest of tonight and especially tomorrow are going to be really bad for OK/AR/MS/AL/TN. That is one amazing low pressure system in the Heartland and hitting the Deep South at peak heating is going to make for a nasty combination.
Vomit is the right word to use.Becuase I'm afraid after when that storm is over and done with those folks..I'm sure some of their houses will look like someone vomit on them.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
can you guys see the images iam posting


Excellent animations...
i got a message saying all my posts were blanks o well
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i got a message saying all my posts were blanks o well


I cant get all of the ones on your blog...but havent looked today...did last night
Good night to all,and to all a happy New Years!.Lol. yeah I know I'm not santa let alone his wife.(Yawn).Ah Guud night.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good night to all,and to all a happy New Years!.Lol. yeah I know I'm not santa let alone his wife.(Yawn).Ah Guud night.


night night


area of high risk
Well, well....Grothar...I'm scared to ask, but, did ya get the rain we conjured up for ya?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That would be a big "WOW"....very nice ;0
We have a lot of mosquitos, and other biting insex.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:00 PM FST April 15 2011
====================================

A tropical disturbance is expected west of New Caledonia. Potential for this disturbance to develop into a cyclone is low to moderate
LOLOL....too funny...
Quoting pottery:
We have a lot of mosquitos, and other biting insex.



Evening Pott, KOG and Gang!!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Well, well....Grothar...I'm scared to ask, but, did ya get the rain we conjured up for ya?


We got a good soaker this afternoon. I even posted a thank you for the Rain Dance and a map showing it. It must have worked. The first rain I have seen in months.
Quoting Grothar:


We got a good soaker this afternoon. I even posted a thank you for the Rain Dance and a map showing it. It must have worked. The first rain I have seen in months.


OMG....that's great !! and a soaker at that....good fer you. Now I've got to get some sleep so I can get prepared for tomorrow...."storms a'comin".....again !!

Good night all :)
677. JRRP

have a nice day
Looks like I am in the middle of the land hurricane going on in Kansas. The wind is really picking up here they are saying upwards of 70mph non-thunderstorm wind gusts tomorrow.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1032 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
FRIDAY.

* TIMING: NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY
BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY.

* WINDS: THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THIS HIGH WIND EVENT
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 55 MPH. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL
APPROACH...IF NOT REACH 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS: A SIGNIFICANT INCONVENIENCE IS EXPECTED FOR TRAVELERS
PARTICULARLY ON EAST-WEST ROADS WHERE DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS WILL
OCCUR. THESE CROSS WINDS WILL BE MAGNIFIED AROUND LARGE
OBSTACLES SUCH AS GRAIN ELEVATORS. SHORT-TERM POWER
INTERRUPTIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH EVEN A FEW POWER OUTAGES
POSSIBLE LASTING AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE
IS ALSO EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IF GUSTS REACH 70 MPH.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 09-20102011
10:00 AM RET April 15 2011
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression 9 (987 hPa) located at 32.8S 47.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 150 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle


Near Gale Force Winds
====================
115 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 34.6S 48.2E - 55 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS: 37.2S 50.0E - 50 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS: 41.7S 58.2E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 41.7S 64.3E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system is still intensifying.. present vmax estimate is based on extrapolation of ASCAT data from 1810z that showed 47 knots of maximum winds in the northeastern quadrant (with stronger winds possible in the southwestern quadrant). Since that time, vorticity seems to have increased given the aspect of the low level vortex seen on microwave imagery (see the nice 0225z WINDSAT imagery). MSLP is derived from Buoy 17665 data with latest available data at 0400z giving a pressure of 989.1 hPa.

Yesterday, the system tracked south southwestward on the western edge of a mid tropospheric ridge. It has slow down since last night and has begun its southeastward turn over the southwestern face of subtropical ridge.

The system is tracking over sea surface temperature in the 22-23C range, but under the axis of a large high tropospheric trough. So during the next 12-18 hours, vertical wind shear should remain weak with good upper level divergence that will preserve convection. Thus it is likely that the system still gain a little bit of strength. Beyond, upper level vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system should gradually fill-up.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL (29U)
5:00 AM CST April 15 2011
==========================================

At 3:30 am CST, Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category One (996 hPa) was located near 12.5S 125.8E, or 145 km north northwest of Troughton Island and 220 km north northwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center in the northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in the southern quadrant

The cyclone may intensify further as it moves away from the Kimberley coast early on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay during today if the cyclone takes a more southwest track.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the far north Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Watch for the north Kimberley, IDW39610.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Kalumburu, in Western Australia.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.1S 124.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 11.4S 124.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 10.3S 121.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 09.9S 119.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=========================

Position based on radar and satellite animation. Convective structure has improved significantly overnight with the development of curved bands and a comma-shaped central feature. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 curved band wrap giving DT=3.0. MET=3.0 and FT=PAT=3.0. Surface observations at Troughton Island 120 km south of the centre reached 28kt gusting 36kt at 00UTC but have eased a little this afternoon. Pressure falls in the north Kimberley indicate system intensification.

Model guidance at 0000UTC forecasts slow northwest movement under the influence of a strengthening ridge to the southwest. There is high confidence in the track forecast due to consistency between models. However, there is the possibility that a southwest movement may allow gales to affect the coast briefly later today.

Overall environment is favourable for further intensification with low vertical wind shear and good outflow in western and southern sectors. But a strengthening low level ridge over WA is expected to increase vertical wind shear and cause dry air to affect the cyclone within 24-36hrs. Intensification at just under the standard rate is expected, then weakening as the cyclone moves closer to the eastern Indonesian islands.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin/Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Errol will be issued at 10:00 AM UTC..
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ARC001-025-039-053-069-079-085-117-119-150800-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110415T0800Z/
CLEVELAND AR-LINCOLN AR-DALLAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-GRANT AR-ARKANSAS AR-
PULASKI AR-LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-
226 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
PRAIRIE...LONOKE...EASTERN PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

...EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED IN LONOKE COUNTY...

AT 224 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH
.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM METO TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ENGLAND TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAMONT...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDE...
STUTTGART... PINE BLUFF... LONOKE...
LITTLE ROCK AFB... JACKSONVILLE... HAZEN...
WHITE HALL... WARBRITTON... WABBASEKA...
ULM... TOLTEC MOUNDS SP... TERRY LOCK AND DAM...
STUTTGART MUNI ARPT... SOUTH BEND...
SISEMORE... SCOTT... RICHARDSON...
REDFIELD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 198.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
Sitting a motel room here in Mead Kansas on my way to work the hail storm in Kansas City. The wind is amazing here. By far the worst i have seen for such a long period of time.
I haven't been here in a while, but is it normal for the right sides of each line of the posts to be chopped off? I change the font sizes, but it consistently chops the lines off.

Example from post #683:

Sitting a motel room here in Mead Kansas on my way to work the hail storm in K
City. The wind is amazing here. By far the worst i have seen for such a long perio
time.
Area of Moderate Risk expanded to cover almost all of MS/AL today. Pay attention today if you're in this area:

Quoting BobCarver:
I haven't been here in a while, but is it normal for the right sides of each line of the posts to be chopped off? I change the font sizes, but it consistently chops the lines off.

Example from post #683:

Sitting a motel room here in Mead Kansas on my way to work the hail storm in K
City. The wind is amazing here. By far the worst i have seen for such a long perio
time.
Good morning. I don't know if you are still on but when I go on WU at work the posts are cut off on the right side too. At work we are on IE but at home I use Firefox so maybe that is the problem.
687. IKE

688. IKE
5 day QPF...



Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF...


Still no relief for drought-stricken areas...
Quoting KoritheMan:

Still no relief for drought-stricken areas...


Mornin Kori!!

Quoting traumaboyy:


Mornin Kori!!
Morning! How are things?
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF...




Mornin Ike!!

You think the bad stuff will get into the panhandle or stay north of us??
Quoting KoritheMan:

Morning! How are things?


Doing very well....looking foreward to sand and sun this weekend

How are things in my favorite part of the world??
694. IKE

Quoting traumaboyy:


Mornin Ike!!

You think the bad stuff will get into the panhandle or stay north of us??
I hope it goes north of here.

Quoting traumaboyy:


Doing very well....looking foreward to sand and sun this weekend

How are things in my favorite part of the world??
Pretty good. Might get the tail end of that front, but definitely nothing compared to MS, AL, and TN.

See ya around!
696. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook.......


0.01 for me, huh ike?

and an inch equals five miles...
698. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
0.01 for me, huh ike?

and an inch equals five miles...
Looks like you may have to wait for summertime thunderstorms to get your rain total up much.
699. flsky
I'm using FF also, but I have to reload each page 3 times before it displays normally. I used to value this website, now it's mostly just a frustrating pain.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. I don't know if you are still on but when I go on WU at work the posts are cut off on the right side too. At work we are on IE but at home I use Firefox so maybe that is the problem.
The Wicked system continues marching across MS AL.

The pressure is dropping ahead of it.


Link
Oh, man, getting ready for the big trip to Atlanta for the National Hurricane Conference.

Computer? Check.
Presentations? Check.
Hotel and flight reservations? You betcha.
Registration information? Uh huh.
Location to get a good mint julep? Hmmm... gonna have to ask the concierge....
Good for you, Tom. Do you have a blog so you can keep us informed of your daily activities?!
Quoting Chicklit:
Good for you, Tom. Do you have a blog so you can keep us informed of your daily activities?!


Not a weather blog, but a woodworking one...

Maybe I should post updates here...
705. flsky
Four dead from last night's storms:
Link
Big Tornado in the video below! Amazing!!!

http://www.casttv.com/twitter?topic=Tornado
Quoting TampaTom:
Oh, man, getting ready for the big trip to Atlanta for the National Hurricane Conference.

Computer? Check.
Presentations? Check.
Hotel and flight reservations? You betcha.
Registration information? Uh huh.
Location to get a good mint julep? Hmmm... gonna have to ask the concierge....

Severe thunderstorms heading to Atlanta in the next 24 hours: Check.

Have fun at the conference, and if you get a chance, I'm sure many of us here would love to see some updates as the conference is going on.
Quoting jeffs713:

Severe thunderstorms heading to Atlanta in the next 24 hours: Check.


Tornadoes. CHECK
Hail. CHECK
60 to 70 mph. winds. CHECK
Loss of Power. CHECK
Hurricance Conference Delayed. CHECK
Teach me how to Dougie. CHECK!
711. IKE
NEW BLOG!


Starting to wonder if there will be enough left to bring moisture....