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How oil might affect a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:59 PM GMT on May 07, 2010

There's no major changes to the forecast for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. As I discussed in yesterday's post, on Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower. Yesterday's post also has the long-range outlook for oil to get into the Loop Current and spread to the Florida Keys and beyond.

What will oil in the Gulf of Mexico do to a hurricane?
With hurricane season fast approaching and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico likely to still be around once hurricane season starts in June, we need to ask, how will oil affect any hurricanes that might traverse over the spill? And how might a hurricane's wind and storm surge affect the spill? Let's consider the first of those questions today.

From the time of the ancient Greeks to the days of the wooden ships and iron men, mariners dumped barrels of oil onto raging seas to calm them during critical moments of violent storms (Wyckoff, 1886.) Oil does indeed calm wind-driven waves, thanks to the reduction in surface tension of the water that oil causes. Ripples with a wavelength shorter than 17 mm are affected by surface tension, and these ripples then cause a feedback that reduces the height of larger waves with longer wavelengths (Scott, 1986.) The reduction of surface tension also impacts the flow of air above the water, and reduces the amount of sea spray thrown into the air, both of which could affect the wind speed. Oil also damps waves by forming a thick, viscous film at the top of the water that resists water motion (Scott, 1999.) Oil also helps calm raging seas by switching off of the wind energy input needed by the wave to break. This occurs because the surface film of oil prevents the generation of ripples on the exposed crests of the waves, and this smoother surface makes the wind less able to grab onto the wave and force it to break.

So, what would happen to a hurricane that encounters a large region of oily waters? A 2005 paper by Barenblatt et al. theorize that spray droplets hurled into the air by a hurricane's violent winds form a layer intermediate between air and sea made up of a cloud of droplets that can be viewed as a "third fluid". The large droplets in the air suppress turbulence in this "third fluid", decrease the frictional drag over the ocean surface, and accelerate the winds. According to this theory of turbulence, oil dumped on the surface of the ocean would reduce the formation of wind-whipped spray droplets, potentially calming the winds. The authors propose spraying oil on the surface of the ocean to reduce the winds of a hurricane. However, the turbulence theory championed by Barenblatt et al. has been challenged by other scientists. In a 2005 interview with Newscientist magazine, turbulence expect Julian Hunt at University College London, UK, remarks, "I am very doubtful about this approach." Hunt studies turbulence both theoretically and in the laboratory, and believes that the high wind speeds in a hurricane are not caused by sea spray. In an article he wrote for the Journal of Fluid Dynamics, Hunt suggests that variations in the turbulence between different regions of the hurricane cause sharp jumps in wind speed, which are responsible for the hurricane's strongest winds.

Oil reduces evaporation
Hurricanes are sustained by the heat liberated when water vapor that has evaporated from warm ocean waters condenses into rain. If one can reduce the amount of water evaporating from the ocean, a decrease in the hurricane's strength will result. Oil on the surface of the ocean will act to limit evaporation, and could potentially decrease the strength of a hurricane. However, if the oil is mixed away from the surface by the strong winds of a hurricane, the oil will have a very limited ability to reduce evaporation. According to a 2005 article in Popular Science magazine, Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT performed some tests in 2002 to see if oil on the surface of water could significantly reduce evaporation into a hurricane. He found that the slick quickly dissipated under high wind conditions that generated rough seas.


Figure 1. A comparison of the size of 2008's Hurricane Gustav with the size of the Gulf oil spill. The spill is only about 60 miles in diameter, while a hurricane like Gustav is typically 400+ miles in diameter.

Conclusion
A tropical cyclone in its formative stage--as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm with 40 mph winds--might be adversely affected if it encountered the Gulf of Mexico oil slick, due to the reduction of evaporation into the storm. However, a full-fledged hurricane would mix the oil into the ocean to such a degree that the storm would probably not see any significant reduction in evaporation. It remains unknown how the reduction of sea spray by oil might affect a hurricane. If the oil slick expands to a much larger size, there might be a significant reduction in strength of the hurricane, if theory of how a reduction of sea spray will decrease a hurricane's winds is correct. However, the oil slick is currently Delaware-sized, while a hurricane tends to be Texas-sized, and I doubt that the oil slick at its current size is large enough to have a significant impact on a hurricane's intensity. The slick is about 60 miles across, and it would take a hurricane about four hours to traverse the spill at a typical hurricane forward speed of 15 mph. Furthermore, the slick is within 50 miles land, and interactions with land will dominate the behavior of a hurricane that gets that close to the coast. Unfortunately, there is a decent chance that we'll get a real-world opportunity to see what will happen. June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual, shear from our lingering El Niño may bring wind shear levels a bit above average. I expect there is a 20% chance that we'll see a June tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico that would interact with the oil spill.

References
Barenblatt, G.I, A.J. Chorin, and V.M. Prostokishin, 2005, A note concerning the Lighthill sandwich model of tropical cyclones, PNAS August 9, 2005 vol. 102 no. 32 11148-11150 doi: 10.1073/pnas.0505209102.

Hunt, J.C.R, and I. Eames, 2006, Mechanics of inhomogeneous turbulence and interfacial layers,, Journal of Fluid Dynamics, vol. 554, pp. 499519 doi:10.1017/S002211200600944X.

Scott, J.C., 1986, "The Effect of Organic Films on Water Surface Motions," in Oceanic Whitecaps, edited by E. C. Monohan and G. Mac Niocaill, D. Reidel Publishing Company.

Scott, J.C., 1999, Ocean Surface Slicks - "Pollution, Productivity, Climate and Life-saving", IEEE Proceedings of the International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symp. IGARSS99, Hamburg, Germany, 28 June-2 July 1999, vol. 3, pp 1463-1468, 1999.

Wyckoff, A.B., 1886, The Use of Oil in Storms at Sea, American Philosophical Society, April 2, 1886.

http://www.archive.org/stream/proceedingsofamep23 amer/proceedingsofamep23amer_djvu.txt

First tropical wave of the season leaves the coast of Africa
Yesterday, the National Hurricane Center noted the first tropical wave of the year coming off the coast of Africa in their Tropical Weather Discussion. The first half of May is the typical time when the first tropical wave comes off the coast of Africa. The wave is currently positioned in the far eastern Atlantic near 5N 45W, and I don't expect it to develop, since it is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin to gain the rotation needed. The wave has quickly been joined by two new ones today, located at 15W and 36W off the African coast. Tropical waves serve as the seed that form most Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Portlight delivers major aid shipment to Haiti
Portlight continues to focus its energy and funds on the situation in Haiti, where the rainy season is fast approaching the needs for shelter, medical supplies, food and water remain urgent. Their latest effort was a shipment of several thousand pounds of Durable Medical Equipment and 30,000 pounds of rice that arrived this week via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

Portlight.org is also preparing to respond the the Gulf Coast oil spill by deploying one of more mobile kitchens to feed the hundreds of volunteers likely to flood the coast when the oil finally comes ashore. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti and the Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. Relief supplies from the schooner Halie and Mathew sitting at the Portlight Haiti warehouse, ready for distribution.

Next Post
I'm on my way to Tucson today for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, which will be held in Tucson next week. My next post will probably be on Monday night, when I plan to discuss the record SSTs observed last month in the tropical Atlantic. I'm excited to be catching up on and blogging about all the latest advancements in hurricane research!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Weather456:
Even though we stress alot the Bermuda High when it comes to steering, the relationship between the Bermuda High and Icelandic Low gives a more accurate idea of steering. Thus the use of the NAO index.

With a negative NAO occurring and expected to continue this summer, two things happen:

1) We have weaker than normal Icelandic Low and weaker than Normal High. The Icelandic is like one big instability in the polar jet stream and is the cause of frontal troughs and systems. A weaker Icelandic low produces less frontal troughs which is the main cause of re-curvatures. Weaker frontal troughs also find it harder to break down the subtropical ridge.

2) The Icelandic Low and Bermuda High are further apart during the Negative phase of the NAO. The high is further south and west.

Too really get a good handle on re-curvatures by frontal systems, the deepness of the Icelandic low is a good tool.


Good news is a deep trough is going to set up along the Eastern US starting next week through the end of the month.
1.1 million gallons a day. good god. what a mess.


http://blog.skytruth.org/
Quoting Motttt:
Tyler Costantini LIVE ChaseCam
Link

The "TORNADOES" are starting early today. Monday, 5-10-10 is going to produce a whole boatload of tornadoes


Note: All data are considered preliminary
Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1830 1 ENE LEOTI WICHITA KS 3849 10134 BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN FIELD (GLD)
1831 5 N MARIENTHAL WICHITA KS 3856 10121 (GLD)
1919 5 S RUSSELL SPRINGS LOGAN KS 3884 10118 (GLD)
1930 15 SW OAKLEY LOGAN KS 3897 10105 (GLD)
Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1415 100 1 E MANHATTAN RILEY KS 3918 9655 (TOP)
1845 150 5 W WAVERLY LAFAYETTE MO 3921 9361 (EAX)
1919 100 5 SSW WINDTHORST FORD KS 3771 9967 (DDC)
Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV)
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1730 60 2 N JOHNSON CITY STANTON KS 3760 10175 (DDC)
1912 60 6 E SCOTT CITY SCOTT KS 3848 10080 (DDC)
Full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format
Quoting Jeff9641:


This not wishcasting I heard this from JB and other hurricane forecasters. SE FL is in for a world of hurt this summer. We can probably expect tracks similiar to 2004. So let me guess everyone else at the hurricance center and at accuweather are wishcasting? If I lived in the West Palm beach area I would be concerned and points around there I would be vigiliant for potential strong landfalls this year.
Well to narrow it down to the city it will hit and the strength of the hurricane, to me is considered wishcasting. I could say that Florida, specifically South Florida, could get impacted by a hurricane but to say that a Cat. 4 will hit Ft. Lauderdale is a bit much. And if Accuweather and the NHC are saying that a Cat. 4 cane will hit Ft. Lauderdale then they are being a little too specific. I'm not calling you a wishcaster it's just that prediction is too specific.
2005. Drakoen
The ITCZ is pretty much at its average position over Africa now:

8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN
2007. pottery
post 2000, Good One. Thanks.


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...AN DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
OK...THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE
THREAT OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...HART
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good news is a deep trough is going to set up along the Eastern US starting next week through the end of the month.
I wish that would be the set-up come August and September.
2012. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well to narrow it down to the city it will hit and the strength of the hurricane, to me is considered wishcasting. I could say that Florida, specifically South Florida, could get impacted by a hurricane but to say that a Cat. 4 will hit Ft. Lauderdale is a bit much. And if Accuweather and the NHC are saying that a Cat. 4 cane will hit Ft. Lauderdale then they are being a little too specific. I'm not calling you a wishcaster it's just that prediction is too specific.
He did not say he wishes it would hit that area, maybe it should be called possibility casting.
2013. txjac
Wow, I feel like I got our of Oklahoma just in time. Was in Tulsa for the ten days.
Quoting hydrus:
He did not say he wishes it would hit that area, maybe it should be called possibility casting.
Whatever, forget about it, we don't need to stress over garbage.
We know it will probably be an active season, and, that some folks will never properly prepare for the season; best thing would actually be a few tropical storms (with no loss of life of course), before the earnest start of CV season in August, to get folks to prepare for what could be an extreme season in August and September....Worst thing that could happen is for no storms in June/July, folks start to lower their guard, and you get a monster "A" storm out of the box ala Andrew in 92.....
If you follow the CFS, ridging develops over the Central-Eastern USA and trough extends as far south of the Canadian Maritime. Nothing to protect the Eastern Sea Board.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well to narrow it down to the city it will hit and the strength of the hurricane, to me is considered wishcasting. I could say that Florida, specifically South Florida, could get impacted by a hurricane but to say that a Cat. 4 will hit Ft. Lauderdale is a bit much. And if Accuweather and the NHC are saying that a Cat. 4 cane will hit Ft. Lauderdale then they are being a little too specific. I'm not calling you a wishcaster it's just that prediction is too specific.


I said Cat. 3 or 4. Yes, I will stick with this prediction this year as I agree with JB and others of a Major Hurricane impacting S and C FL this year or SE FL more specifically. I am really good with predictions and hopefully this one doesn't come true.
Quoting Weather456:
If you follow the CFS, ridging develops over the Central-Eastern USA and trough extends as far south of the Canadian Maritime. Nothing to protect the Eastern Sea Board.

How much does it suck to live in Miami this year? I just pray that there are no hurricane similar to Andrew (1992).
Quoting Jeff9641:


I said Cat. 3 or 4. Yes, I will stick with this prediction this year as I agree with JB and others of a Major Hurricane impacting S and C FL this year or SE FL more specifically. I am really good with predictions and hopefully this one doesn't come true.
Amen to that.
Wow, 2000 posts, we haven't done that in a while.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How much does it suck to live in Miami this year? I just pray that there are no hurricane similar to Andrew (1991).


You may have a situation where they hit north of you or move toward the keys and come up toward New Orleans to Appalachacola or both options similiar to 2004.
Quoting Bordonaro:

The "TORNADOES" are starting early today. Monday, 5-10-10 is going to produce a whole boatload of tornadoes


Note: All data are considered preliminary
Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1830 1 ENE LEOTI WICHITA KS 3849 10134 BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN FIELD (GLD)
1831 5 N MARIENTHAL WICHITA KS 3856 10121 (GLD)
1919 5 S RUSSELL SPRINGS LOGAN KS 3884 10118 (GLD)
1930 15 SW OAKLEY LOGAN KS 3897 10105 (GLD)
Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1415 100 1 E MANHATTAN RILEY KS 3918 9655 (TOP)
1845 150 5 W WAVERLY LAFAYETTE MO 3921 9361 (EAX)
1919 100 5 SSW WINDTHORST FORD KS 3771 9967 (DDC)
Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV)
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1730 60 2 N JOHNSON CITY STANTON KS 3760 10175 (DDC)
1912 60 6 E SCOTT CITY SCOTT KS 3848 10080 (DDC)
Full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format


Norman might want to extend out the High Risk area.
2023. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Whatever, forget about it, we don't need to stress over garbage.
All forgotten.:)
You have climatology on your side Jeff. We're due in that respect. Round these parts it's not a matter of if but, when?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How much does it suck to live in Miami this year? I just pray that there are no hurricane similar to Andrew (1991).

Minor correction: Andrew was in 1992. But all technicalities aside, y'all definitely need to remain vigilant.
Quoting Jeff9641:


You may have a situation where they hit north of you or move toward the keys and come up toward New Orleans to Appalachacola or both options similiar to 2004.
Possibly. The Bermuda high is expected to be pretty south so anything more to the north than Jacksonville probably won't happen.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Minor correction: Andrew was in 1992. But all technicalities aside, y'all definitely need to remain vigilant.
WOW, I can't believe I messed that up, lol.
2028. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Possibly. The Bermuda high is expected to be pretty south so anything more to the north than Jacksonville probably won't happen.
Yeah, and if a La-Nina does in fact develop, the storms seem to stay further south also.
2029. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
WOW, I can't believe I messed that up, lol.
I read ya. Have had my share of those. It gets worse the older ya get.
Posts 1942, 1944, 1946, 1950, thanks for the emphasis/clarification. I understand the mechanics of what may have happened/lawsuits have been filed for/different companies pointing fingers at each other/deny, deny, deny, counter-accuse and further deny tactics being used for. I was just questioning if we have the smoking gun, so to speak, or educated speculation. Sorry for the late response...the math thing I do called me away.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
You have climatology on your side Jeff. We're due in that respect. Round these parts it's not a matter of if but, when?

Here in Miami we're due for one too. I can't remember the last time Miami had a direct hit from a CAT.1 hurricane (Katrina had 70 MPH winds when she made landfall, I believe).
Quoting hydrus:
Yeah, and if a La-Nina does in fact develop, the storms seem to stay further south also.

Does that mean New England and NC are safe this year?
Intense diurnal activity in Puerto Rico this afternoon as a trough lingers west of us providing good dynamics for this.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC001-009-019-035-039-041-043-045-047-057-059-073-075-107-111-113-
123-133-141-149-102045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...AIBONITO...
BARRANQUITAS...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...OROCOVIS...UTUADO...
VILLALBA...GUAYANILLA...GUAYAMA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...
SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL AND PENUELAS

AT 346 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THESE
MUNICIPALITIES AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS
ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH OR MORE AT LEAST UNTIL
445 PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Does that mean New England and NC are safe this year?
Well if the NAO stays negative I could go on a limb and say yes. Keep in mind the Bermuda high has to stay very west, it needs to be weaker than normal, and it has to be more south than normal, and the icelandic low needs to stay weak.
2035. hydrus
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Does that mean New England and NC are safe this year?
New England probably, North Carolina is never really safe from storms of any kind.
Quoting hydrus:
New England probably, North Carolina is never really safe from storms of any kind.


I know.. I lived in that area in 2003..
2037. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know.. I lived in that area in 2003..
I have hit my share of bad weather there. Especially in 1985. sheesh.
As much as we have been hit in the past 5 years, we shouldn't have much damage with other hits. JK... but The newer, stronger construction should help with destruction levels if we were hit here in SeTx
2040. GBguy88
Check out the radar loop for that tornado warning in north/central Oklahoma...really well defined cell.
2042. hydrus
Quoting Dirtleg:
JFV IS LURKING!!!

Dirtleg, You are banned. :)
I thought MiamiHurricanes took over JFV's job on the blog? :)
2044. Walshy
Quoting hydrus:
New England probably, North Carolina is never really safe from storms of any kind.



We don't even need a storm to hit the NC coast directly to be affected by something tropical. Flordia hits usually spread rain north and floods us anyway like from Hurricane Ivan. And I can recall Texas hits bringing tornadoes over here...believed it was Gustav or something influencing our weather pattern...
I probably should not say this and I wouldn't if I thought it would make a difference. By far the most overdo for a significant hurricane has got to be the Fl. Keys. Just ask Henry Flagler if he was still kicking. Last biggie I remember was Donna 1960.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I thought MiamiHurricanes took over JFV's job on the blog? :)
So I'm the new extreme drama, annoying, behind the shower curtain forecaster????
blog has really slowed down from earlier today
Quoting Weather456:
Even though we stress alot the Bermuda High when it comes to steering, the relationship between the Bermuda High and Icelandic Low gives a more accurate idea of steering. Thus the use of the NAO index.

With a negative NAO occurring and expected to continue this summer, two things happen:

1) We have weaker than normal Icelandic Low and weaker than Normal High. The Icelandic is like one big instability in the polar jet stream and is the cause of frontal troughs and systems. A weaker Icelandic low produces less frontal troughs which is the main cause of re-curvatures (Coriolis 2nd). Weaker frontal troughs also find it harder to break down the subtropical ridge.

2) The Icelandic Low and Bermuda High are further apart during the Negative phase of the NAO. The high is further south and west.

Too really get a good handle on re-curvatures by frontal systems, the deepness of the Icelandic low is a good tool.


Very interesting......so how do we figure out the strength or deepness of the Icelandic Low?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I thought MiamiHurricanes took over JFV's job on the blog? :)


Ouch! That was low, man!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You got two out of three right! :)
Reported, Ignored, and hope you get banned. And yes I'm bringing the drama.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So I'm the new extreme drama, annoying, behind the shower curtain forecaster????


Let me ask you this: do you own, or have you owned a My Pretty Pony Shower Curtain?


This hook had a pinhole eye for a frame!! hope all those chasers take care... **Edit** attempt at posting radar loop zoom in failed... but referencing the cell just coming on I-35 near OK/KS border, in case anyone else can pull off the animated loop :)
Quoting Floodman:


Let me ask you this: do you own, or have you owned a My Pretty Pony Shower Curtain?
LMAO, no.
Quoting Floodman:


Ouch! That was low, man!
I know it's not like I've been cursing at her or him or whatever that person is.
That's what JFV would say! Obviously, you have not followed me enough on the blog to know my sense of humor. Once the season gets cranked up, it's time to get serious.
Quoting Dirtleg:
JFV IS LURKING!!!



i wonder how he did those little pin curls in his hair...
Quoting gordydunnot:
I probably should not say this and I wouldn't if I thought it would make a difference. By far the most overdo for a significant hurricane has got to be the Fl. Keys. Just ask Henry Flagler if he was still kicking. Last biggie I remember was Donna 1960.


There are a number of cities in Florida that appear to be overdue, if you're looking at this from an odds standpoint...I won't name any names herre, but you know who you are...
How can you ignore someone and attempt to ban them at the same time. Ignore button use it.
Quoting GBguy88:
Check out the radar loop for that tornado warning in north/central Oklahoma...really well defined cell.


Amazing

Quoting Floodman:


Let me ask you this: do you own, or have you owned a My Pretty Pony Shower Curtain?


omg. now you are getting creepy
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
That's what JFV would say! Obviously, you have not followed me enough on the blog to know my sense of humor. Once the season gets cranked up, it's time to get serious.


MiamiHurricanes, I will vouch for GoeffreyWPB: he does have a rather strange (yet endearing) sense of humor...

As for the shower curtain, I have one more question: Have you ever felt the urge to BUY a My Pretty Pony Shower Curtain?
Good point flood but there are a lot of cities in the Keys these days compared to then, that was my point, also have dodge the upswing in hurricane activity in the last decade. Bullets just to the north, south,east and west.
Quoting twhcracker:


omg. now you are getting creepy


Cracker, I'm just asking the tough questions...
Quoting hydrus:
Yep. I heard the saying" come hell or high water" they just might actually get both. It is something to think considering the ongoing situation.


or it could blow over one of those factory smoke stacks that sends up a constant flame and kablooey. but my secret vision of GOM chernoble is a shoreline globbed with a line of piled up goopy shorebirds.
Quoting gordydunnot:
How can you ignore someone and attempt to ban them at the same time. Ignore button use it.
Truely is, very nice vortex signiture.
Another cell to the south



Quoting Floodman:


MiamiHurricanes, I will vouch for GoeffreyWPB: he does have a rather strange (yet endearing) sense of humor...

As for the shower curtain, I have one more question: Have you ever felt the urge to BUY a My Pretty Pony Shower Curtain?
No, lol.
Thanks Flood..I appreciate that.
Quoting Floodman:


Cracker, I'm just asking the tough questions...


well i guess someone has to do it. I just felt a twinge of guilt because every year on my icelandic's birthday I buy my pretty pony party hats and party favors and stick them on my horses heads and take pictures. they despise it.
See some questions are better left to your mother to answer, when she is trying to embarrass you or take you down a notch.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, lol.


Then I can say, with some small amount of certainty that you CANNOT be a replacement for the much maligned (and righteously so) JFV...
Quoting Floodman:


Then I can say, with some small amount of certainty that you CANNOT be a replacement for the much maligned (and righteously so) JFV...
LMAO
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thanks Flood..I appreciate that.


No worries, dude!
We are in the same boat this season Miami...We only live about 60 miles apart...Any system that affects you will most likely affect me and vice versa.
Quoting twhcracker:


well i guess someone has to do it. I just felt a twinge of guilt because every year on my icelandic's birthday I buy my pretty pony party hats and party favors and stick them on my horses heads and take pictures. they despise it.


You are a deeply bent human being, Cracker...I can truly respect that
Quoting gordydunnot:
See some questions are better left to your mother to answer, when she is trying to embarrass you or take you down a notch.


YEah, what's the deal with that, anyway? You bring home a new girlfriend and out come the "baby pictures"...
Okay kids, I have sown enough chaos and discord for one day...have a good evening!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Speaking of deeply bent individuals, it's CycloneOz, the posterboy for the deeply bent!

Okay, on that note, I do have to bonce...later, folks!
Oz...LMAO...A WU Classic!
Quoting Floodman:


No worries, dude!
I will remove Geoffrey from my ignore list is he doesn't begin to attack me out of the blue, even if I bring "drama" (which I don't think I do) to the blog. Come June 1st all foolishness aside and straight to business.
2082. Drakoen
Another hook West of Wichita:


I'll get banned for it...probably...but I couldn't resist.

The Doc is a master strategist for unblocking him on the eve of the 2010 Hurricane Season!

WTG Doc!
I hope Admin. is in a good mood this evening.
Just took a peak at TWC main US radar, not to be a "doom-caster", BUT, thunderstorm development is NOW taking place in earnest across OK and KS, which are under a HIGH risk per SPC, PLUS a new Tornado Watch box out for western aread of N Central TX, NOT including DFW, TX.
Quoting CycloneOz:
I'll get banned for it...probably...but I couldn't resist.

The Doc is a master strategist for unblocking him on the eve of the 2010 Hurricane Season!

WTG Doc!
It'll be funny if you use it as your handle picture, lol.
2087. NRAamy
Jerry....you're killing me, man!


:)
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Still alot of cloud cover, which is holding the CAPE down (for now)...





Ha, its 4000 j/kg here where I'm at. If only the Cap would break. CIN is at -200 right now. Tornado Watch just to my west. I live in North Texas
Quoting Drakoen:
Another hook West of Wichita:


That seems like a very intense tornado. Do you have any reports?
Quoting Bordonaro:
Just took a peak at TWC main US radar, not to be a "doom-caster", BUT, thunderstorm development is NOW taking place in earnest across OK and KS, which are under a HIGH risk per SPC, PLUS a new Tornado Watch box out for N Central TX.


Western North Central Texas...Just west of me :(
2092. NRAamy
Oz!!!!!!! I love it!!!!!!

:)
2093. Ossqss
Hi all, at the request of several folks, I have opened my blog again for the Atlantic Season Prognostication contest. Same rules as last year and a virtual trophy to the winner again. Please join us if you like here :)

The entry will close on the 15th @ 11pm EST
Quoting CycloneOz:


.. oh Christ..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I hope Admin. is in a good mood this evening.
Me too, I hope they laugh off the pics.
2096. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That seems like a very intense tornado. Do you have any reports?


Tornado warning just issued
Quoting Drakoen:


Tornado warning just issued
Too bad, I hope everyone is safe and sound.
2098. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
Vostok, Antarctica

Current Conditions

Vostok, Antarctica (Airport)
Updated: 6 hr 20 min 46 sec ago

Vostok, Antarctica

Temperature: -90 °F
Humidity: 27%
Dew Point: -98 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: in (Falling)
Visibility: 12.0 miles
Elevation: 11220 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:


-90 huh.. A little too cold for me...
2099. Drakoen
Really coiling up on radar an looks like it's headed in the general direction of Wichita:

Quoting Drakoen:
Really coiling up on radar an looks like it's headed in the general direction of Wichita:



That's amazing! Wow!
Someone asked how do you monitor the deepness of the Icelandic low:

You can monitor the deepness of the Icelandic low by looking at MSLP and 500 mb height anomalies during the past month. The Icelandic Low normally is located between Greenland and the North Sea. Just look in that area for any pressure anomalies.

In the image below, we can see the Icelandic low has been weaker than normal because pressures were above average there. We can also see the Bermuda high was weaker than normal because pressures were below average there.

A positive NAO would have lower pressures at the Icelandic low and higher pressures near the Bermuda high.

Images can be found here




In the second image, 500 mb heights show, heights were higher at the Icelandic region (A), lower near the subtropical ridge (B) and higher over the tropical oceans (C).

higher heights mean a weaker Icelandic low
lower heights mean a weaker subtropical ridge
higher heights over the tropical Atlantic is an illustration of hot the atmosphere is there. Warm air expands and cause the level of 500 mb to higher up in the atmosphere.

Quoting Jeff9641:


This not wishcasting I heard this from JB and other hurricane forecasters. SE FL is in for a world of hurt this summer. We can probably expect tracks similiar to 2004. So let me guess everyone else at the hurricance center and at accuweather are wishcasting? If I lived in the West Palm beach area I would be concerned and points around there I would be vigiliant for potential strong landfalls this year.


Which ironically enough completely missed Miami Fort Lauderdale.
Quoting CycloneOz:


That's amazing! Wow!
Indeed it is.
VERY powerful hook echo heading directly towards Wichita.. a highly populated city.
2105. xcool
Link

live
Good to see ya flood, Oz, and everyone else.

That's one hell of a hook on that cell headed toward Wichita.
2107. xcool
look out oklam city
366,046 as of 2008 live in Wichita, Kansas.. its 4:52 p.m EDT too.. rush hour.
2109. Drakoen
Quoting StormJunkie:
Good to see ya flood, Oz, and everyone else.

That's one hell of a hook on that cell headed toward Wichita.


Wichita is now under a tornado warning
Quoting StormJunkie:
Good to see ya flood, Oz, and everyone else.

That's one hell of a hook on that cell headed toward Wichita.


Great to see ya, StormJ!

I'll say "hi" again once I come out from the ban that's sure to come! :)
I don't know Oz, they might let that one slide...lmao
2112. Dakster
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How much does it suck to live in Miami this year? I just pray that there are no hurricane similar to Andrew (1992).


I second that...
2113. Drakoen
Tornado approaching Oklahoma City:

Geez, can you imagine being in Wichita right now? The entire city is sounding tornado warning horns.

We could be just a handful of minutes away from the top news story of the day...the kind of the most unfortunate in nature.

God bless everyone in the path of this storm.

Looks like to much shear but a little spin at 26n 62w being pushed sw probably getting absorb by front. Lucky it's not a couple months from now. As I said earlier this morning good luck to the mid west, although that looks like a mute point. At least most everyone should stay safe as the forecast looks as it couldn't have been much better.
Two major U.S. cities under the gun at the same time?

That's unbelievable...
Quoting Dakster:


I second that...
Why?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
366,046 as of 2008 live in Wichita, Kansas.. its 4:52 p.m EDT too.. rush hour.
That is not good. The twister should be there is within 15 minutes.
2118. bwi
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

* AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHENEY...OR 22
MILES EAST OF KINGMAN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
EAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN WICHITA...
Tornadic storm heading in Oklahoma City's direction.
2120. xcool
yeah bad Tornado head too Oklahoma Cit
2121. Drakoen
Hi-Def close up of the one near Oklahoma City:

Quoting CycloneOz:
Geez, can you imagine being in Wichita right now? The entire city is sounding tornado warning horns.

We could be just a handful of minutes away from the top news story of the day...the kind of the most unfortunate in nature.

God bless everyone in the path of this storm.

Amen to the that. I have the news on but they are not speaking of anything about that.
omg downtown at rush hour is not so good!
People in Oklahoma City and Wichita need to take cover NOW!!! Its rush hour to boot in BOTH cities!!!! If anyones in a car GET OUT NOW, FIND A DITCH!
2126. Drakoen
The one headed towards Wichita has lost some of its signature. Will be keeping an eye nonetheless.
A Sunday driver is controlling the Wichita, Kansas webcam right now. I'm in the que. I'm going to set it to the storm coming in...

http://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/
2128. xcool
pea size hail
2129. hydrus
Quoting gordydunnot:
I probably should not say this and I wouldn't if I thought it would make a difference. By far the most overdo for a significant hurricane has got to be the Fl. Keys. Just ask Henry Flagler if he was still kicking. Last biggie I remember was Donna 1960.
Betsy in 65 was bad in the Keys.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Live T.V. Feed From Oklahoma
Thanks.
2131. Dakster
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why?That is not good. The twister should be there is within 15 minutes.


I don't want to go through another Andrew type storm...
Quoting Dakster:


I don't want to go through another Andrew type storm...
No one does. I hope nothing affects us.
2133. bwi
AT 458 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE
GROUND 6 MILES NORTH OF VIOLA. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTH OF GODDARD...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
WICHITA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
Live Wichita news link

I can't get the video to work, but I have audio...The link is under the radar images.
2136. xcool
Link

chasertv
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How much does it suck to live in Miami this year? I just pray that there are no hurricane similar to Andrew (1992).


The odds of being hit by a hurricane in any given year are very small. There’s no way anyone can tell you this far in advance what the steering currents are going to look like.
Had to use IE to get it to play...
2139. Drakoen
Wrapping around again:



Quoting hurricane23:


The odds of being hit by a hurricane in any given year are very small. There’s no way anyone can tell you this far in advance what the steering currents are going to look like.


I wonder what my odds of being hit by a hurricane this year are? >95%?
Day 8 on the GFS shows something interesting south of Cuba and the Yucatan.
Quoting hurricane23:


The odds of being hit by a hurricane in any given year are very small. There’s no way anyone can tell you this far in advance what the steering currents are going to look like.
Well 456 was showing that the east CONUS is not protected by anything. And the icelandic low is weak plus the bermuda high is very west and more south than normal. That's why I said that it sucks to live in Miami this year.
2143. xcool
hurricane23:hey
Quoting CycloneOz:


I wonder what my odds of being hit by a hurricane this year are? >95%?


Hey Oz! Hope you get into some decent chases this season.
Quoting Drakoen:
Wrapping around again:



I do not see the wrapping.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I wonder what my odds of being hit by a hurricane this year are? >95%?
Chances of Florida being hit by a hurricane this year are about 80%.
Those cells look scary as all get out. I hope no one gets hurt or killed!
No offense MH09, but that does not mean it sucks to live in Miami this year...

Didn't think about it until the news mentioned it, but there is a damn good chance they lose the Wichita radar...
Quoting hurricane23:


Hey Oz! Hope you get into some decent chases this season.


Me too..., but I'm not wishing for it. I'm just prepared as all get out to do it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Wow...what an image! It's a TORNADO-CANE!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Live T.V. Feed From Oklahoma

Tornado developing NOW near Moore/OKC, OK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting StormJunkie:
No offense MH09, but that does not mean it sucks to live in Miami this year...

Didn't think about it until the news mentioned it, but there is a damn good chance they lose the Wichita radar...
It was kinda in the moment. Sorry about anything.
2153. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I do not see the wrapping.Chances of Florida being hit by a hurricane this year are about 80%.


Not as obvious as before as storms are forming around it
Wow...two south hooks from two separate cells!
cen oak ef3 or greater
Quoting Drakoen:


Not as obvious as before as storms are forming around it
Ahh, I see, but that still doesn't mean the tornado is weakening correct?
Two OK City Tornadoes!
Quoting CycloneOz:
Wow...two south hooks from two separate cells!

One Tornado near Edmond, OK and near Moore, OK UNBELIEVABLE, 2 tornadoes OKC Metro!!!!
And Drak, don't forget that it's on top of the radar so the data coming back is only a tiny little slice of the storm.

80% huh MH09? lmao...
Power flashes every were in Moore, OK..
2163. Drakoen
Quoting Bordonaro:

One Tornado near Edmond, OK and near Moore, OK UNBELIEVABLE, 2 tornadoes OKC Metro!!!!


Chopper notes 'they're in the exact same path they're following in May 3rd, 1999.' wow.
2165. Drakoen
Quoting StormJunkie:
And Drak, don't forget that it's on top of the radar so the data coming back is only a tiny little slice of the storm.

80% huh MH09? lmao...


correct
2166. bwi
AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE POSSIBLE TORNADO COULD BE RAIN WRAPPED AND IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE.
Quoting StormJunkie:
And Drak, don't forget that it's on top of the radar so the data coming back is only a tiny little slice of the storm.

80% huh MH09? lmao...
80% StormJunkie, lol.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Power flashes every were in Moore, OK..

80KT inflow onto the Moore, OK thunderstorm, no confirmed tornado as of yet. The crap is hitting the fan in the OKC Metro!!!!!!
Just in DEVELOPING LARGE TORNADO MOORE, OK.
Strong hook echo forming right on Moore. 80 knot winds being reported by updraft.. tornado genesis is occurring!
Find me a professional that will go out on that limb with you MH...The bottom line right now is that we don't know anything about any particular city that may or may not be hit. You'll understand it eventually.
Quoting Bordonaro:

80KT inflow onto the Moore, OK thunderstorm, no confirmed tornado as of yet.


Weatherman in Oklahoma saying this is a big tornado forming... its May 3rd '99 all over again.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I do not see the wrapping.Chances of Florida being hit by a hurricane this year are about 80%.


Really?? Based on what? It's that period from August 20th thru Sept. 2Oth. that is critical. If a ridge just happens to set up in the Western Atlantic at 500 mb during that period, there will likely be landfalls. If a trough sets up on or just off the east coast, many storms will not make landfall, except in the West Gulf. Just plain luck and chance. The long wave position is always changing, and rarely stays in one place for more than 2 weeks or so.
Looks like Wichita dodged a bullet there!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Find me a professional that will go out on that limb with you MH...The bottom line right now is that we don't know anything about any particular city that may or may not be hit. You'll understand it eventually.
I said the complete state of Florida not just Miami that there is an 80% chance of a hurricane hitting. And if you're speaking about the "it sucks to live in Miami" It was just a personnal opinion.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Looks like Wichita dodged a bullet there!


A large tornado is again forming in Moore.. Oklahoma City.. 11 years later.

http://www.kfor.com/news/livestreaming/
Quoting hurricane23:


Really?? Based on what? It's that period from August 20th thru Sept. 2Oth. that is critical. If a ridge just happens to set up in the Western Atlantic at 500 mb during that period, there will likely be landfalls. If a trough sets up on or just off the east coast, many storms will not make landfall, except in the West Gulf. Just plain luck and chance. The long wave position is always changing, and rarely stays in one place for more than 2 weeks or so.
With the research I have done I am pretty confident in saying that. I am speaking about the entire season, btw.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I said the complete state of Florida not just Miami that there is an 80% chance of a hurricane hitting. And if you're speaking about the "it sucks to live in Miami" It was just a personnal opinion.
Link
2178. xcool
wow 11 year
2179. Drakoen
Tornado now east of Moore as depicted clearly on radar:

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cen oak ef3 or greater


2043 6 NW MEDFORD GRANT OK 3687 9781 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED. LOCATION ESTIMATED
Quoting BenBIogger:
Link

-Florida-

Probability of Hurricane Impact: 68.0%

Probability of Major Hurricane Impact: 31.4%




Just remember that those radar signatures are TVS (tornadic vortex signature). They only have a 50% accuracy rate. I would not jump the gun and say there is a no kidding tornado on the ground when that could very well be a false statement.
Confirmed TOUCHDOWN!
Funnel cloud reported near Norman.
Hydrus Betsy was pretty bad somehow It seemed Donna was much worse. Donna went through Marathon and I think we had hurricane winds here in North Dade. I don't remember Betsy being that bad but you cannot argue with history. My point is there was geometric growth occurring and it continues to this day in the Keys since Donna.
2187. msphar
wow 44 pages of chatter! What will it be like this season, once the season gets going ???
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Confirmed TOUCHDOWN!
You're really into this. lol.
Quoting msphar:
wow 44 pages of chatter! What will it be like this season, once the season gets going ???
During a very active day? We can get upto 4000 posts in 24 hours.
2191. xcool
ECMWF


show weak storm ...IN ATL
2193. Drakoen
Hook signature around Norman:

Quoting xcool:
ECMWF


show weak storm ...IN ATL
Link?
Quoting Drakoen:
Hook signature around Norman:

I hope everyone is safe.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link?


yea need some proof for that...gfs showing weak storm 8 days out south of Cuba but I dont buy it.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


yea need some proof for that...gfs showing weak storm 8 days out south of Cuba but I dont buy it.
I haven't found it, can you post it please (The GFS)?
2198. xcool
Link


TELL ME WHAT YOUR SEE ? THANK...
2199. bwi
Dang, hail the size of "baseballs, or larger," tornados in vicinity of major cities. What a day to lurk in...
2200. Drakoen
Tornado along I-40 north of Pink:



large tornado in norman OK...good coverage on weather channel. Dr. Forbes is chasing with Vortex 2.
2202. xcool
2 Tornado
2203. Drakoen
Also potential tornado actually just west of Pink:

Showing video of OK City tornado now...showing a waterspout too. Really small ones though on video.
This is great coverage...they just reported and watching tornado down at shawnee.
Out for now, be back later
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I haven't found it, can you post it please (The GFS)?


Long range GFS...

But I wouldn't put much stock in any of them at this point. Too early.
Live feed from OKC CBS helicopter:

Link
OK they said earlier on the live feed that after viewing the trailer park they would have to refuel---so there may not be much more to see for a while.
STILL VIS 4 MINS AGO

2211. Dirtleg
Just received a call from family south of Shawnee OK....My aunt's house is completely gone..only the slab left. Took her 30 tries to get through on a cell phone.
2212. Drakoen
Potential tornado east of Tecumseh:

Baseball sized hail south of OKC.

I was on the phone with a friend who had the FUNNEL pass over her and develop a short distance away while she watched.

She was freaking out with golf ball sized hail pounding her car.
2214. Drakoen
Well-defined mesocyclone east of Tecumseh:

Drak, whats the talk of wrapping, I have been at work all day and have not had read of anything.
Quoting Dirtleg:
Just received a call from family south of Shawnee OK....My aunt's house is completely gone..only the slab left. Took her 30 tries to get through on a cell phone.

I am praying that your family is safe...you can always rebuild but you can just hope no one is injuried or killed. this is awful the damage is increible.
2217. Drakoen
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Drak, whats the talk of wrapping, I have been at work all day and have not had read of anything.


Strong storms producing tornadoes over the southern plains
Numerous Tornado Warnings currently out for east of the OKC, OK area. They are estimating tornado damage ranges between high EF-2 to EF-4 damage.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I am praying that your family is safe...you can always rebuild but you can just hope no one is injuried or killed. this is awful the damage is increible.


Same here....The damage looks incredible....And it appears more on the way.
the last time someone mentioned wrapping, it had me wondering if we were already seeing something form in the CATL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Same here....The damage looks incredible....And it appears more on the way.

The NWS in Norman, OK has reported damage to their building complex, how ironic!
2222. Drakoen
Tracking the tornado:

2223. TomSal
Keeper #2210. Are the "holes" or high tops in the top of the clouds on the GOES image you posted indications of a potential tornado on the deck? Weather new to me still. Thanks.
they were talking that we would see an outbreak this week, and apparently were right on about that.
Oh man! Hope no one gets hurt or loses their life in the tornados in OK or anywhere else, at least you can run from hurricanes but earthquakes no warning and tornados very little, sad!
Quoting Bordonaro:

The NWS in Norman, OK has reported damage to their building complex, how ironic!


I remember in 1992, that Andrew blew the radar off the NHC! They had to use the West Palm Beach radar to follow the storm.
Quoting Dirtleg:
Just received a call from family south of Shawnee OK....My aunt's house is completely gone..only the slab left. Took her 30 tries to get through on a cell phone.


Saying our prayers for your people!! I am in Denton, TX just south of the TX/OK line.
2228. xcool
kaboom loook
Quoting StormJunkie:


Long range GFS...

But I wouldn't put much stock in any of them at this point. Too early.
Oh yes I see. Yeah still too far out, I tend not to look beyond 180 hours on the GFS.
WPB, remember that. That was the start of my watching hurricanes and related weather. Andrew started my interest in storms, and I do remember that the winds got up around 156 or so and then the radar "ball" got removed the top of the NHC which was at that time along US 1 in Coral Gables. Far removed from where they are now, in their bunker like home.
2232. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Incredible.
Things are really bad right now.
Quoting Dirtleg:
Just received a call from family south of Shawnee OK....My aunt's house is completely gone..only the slab left. Took her 30 tries to get through on a cell phone.
Wow that is terrible, I hope she is ok.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I remember in 1992, that Andrew blew the radar off the NHC! They had to use the West Palm Beach radar to follow the storm.
Yes I heard about that.
Keeper, interesting question

What would happen if we were to get a waterspout over the area where the Oil spill is right now? What would the effect be?
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

OKC107-110000-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100511T0000Z/
OKFUSKEE OK-
629 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY CONTINUES...

AT 626 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGIST AND STORM SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO LOCATED 10 MILES WEST
OF BEARDEN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. A LARGE TORNADO IS ON THE
GROUND...THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...TAKE COVER
IMMEDIATELY!

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BOLEY...
BEARDEN...CASTLE...OKEMAH...CLEARVIEW...WELEETKA AND PHAROAH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 231.

LAT...LON 3437 9734
Quoting TomSal:
Keeper #2210. Are the "holes" or high tops in the top of the clouds on the GOES image you posted indications of a potential tornado on the deck? Weather new to me still. Thanks.


many factors are used
sat image shows nice convective super cells with muilti rapid firing storms
the depressions or holes as you call them are indications of a tornadic nature with storm
i also use radar DBZ which must be greater than 65 and nearer to 72 to be tornadic storm of a f3 or higher intensity
also cape shear and lift are important as well
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


many factors are used
sat image shows nice convective super cells with muilti rapid firing storms
the depressions or holes as you call them are indications of a tornadic nature with storm
i also use radar DBZ which must be greater than 65 and nearer to 72 to be tornadic storm of a f3 or higher intensity
also cape shear and lift are important as well
There is a cell over Love, OK showing 70 dBZ.

Cell U1 on Wunderground Nexrad radar.
Link
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There is a cell over Love, OK showing 70 dBZ.

Cell U1 on Wunderground Nexrad radar.
Link
there have beeen many with over 70 today hopefully things calm a bit soon as all these cells mature
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there have beeen many with over 70 today hopefully things calm a bit soon as all these cells mature
I hope, this has definitely been one of the worst tornado outbreaks in a while.


first line collapsing with a secondary line forming behind
2242. DEKRE
Link

Reply #1262: A nice comment on how difficult it is for the relief well to hit the original well!
Did you just see the wedge tornado Dr. Forbes and Vortex had live ont he weather channel? That was crazy. Huge.
One hail report of 4.25 inches. that is going to hurt.
African coast spiting out some thunderstorms:



WOW....

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
One hail report of 4.25 inches. that is going to hurt.
That's about the size of a baseball! Ouch!
Everyone watch TWC, usually this channel is garbage but they got real good stuff right now.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
If that would get to the coast it would be very interesting to see what would unfold.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there have beeen many with over 70 today hopefully things calm a bit soon as all these cells mature

This is a crazy situation, 15 total Tornadoes per OKC, OK Meteorologist.
Multivortex tornado shot earlier in Wakita, OK. Breathtaking video, take a look...

Link
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Everyone watch TWC, usually this channel is garbage but they got real good stuff right now.


Good to see. For now, they have gone back to their original purpose and orgins.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Everyone watch TWC, usually this channel is garbage but they got real good stuff right now.


yea they got Dr. forbes and vortex 2 with live footage...they had a perfect wedge tornado not to long ago. Great video right now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good to see. For now, they have gone back to their original purpose and orgins.
Yes it is, I wish they would stay that way.
96 Total Reports. And we have just begun, it's going to be a long night.

This tornado is very powerful. SE of Muskogee, OK and east of Oklahoma city, it's moving ENE quickly so if you're in the path be careful.

2259. Patrap


Gulf Spill Hearing: Oil Execs Will Point Fingers At Each Other



First Posted: 05-10-10 05:58 PM | Updated: 05-10-10 06:55 PM


Executives from the three companies most implicated in the disastrous oil-rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico will point fingers at each other Tuesday morning, according to the testimony they've prepared for a much-anticipated hearing of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee.

Lamar McKay, president and chairman of BP America, will make a point of telling the committee that it wasn't actually BP's rig, stressing that the rig and its blowout preventer belonged to Transocean Limited.

Steven Newman, Transocean's president and CEO, will testify that his team was just doing what BP told them to do, how BP told them to do it -- and anyway it was subcontractor Halliburton's fault.

And Tim Probert, Halliburton's chief safety officer, will say that his company simply did what it was told, following industry practice. And he'll point out that Transocean, not Halliburton, was doing something when the rig blew.

BP's McKay (read the full text of his prepared statement here) portrays his company as something of a victim:

BP is one of the lease holders and the operator of this exploration well. As operator, BP hired Transocean to conduct the well drilling operations. Transocean owned the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig and its equipment, including the blowout preventer.

Only seven of the 126 people onboard the Deepwater Horizon were BP employees, McKay insists. So BP itself has "only some of the story" and is "working to piece together what happened from meticulous review of the records of rig operations that we have as well as information from those witnesses to whom we have access."

Here are the questions BP's McKay thinks are essential:

• What caused the explosion and fire?
Story continues below

• And why did the blowout preventer fail?

Transocean's Newman, by contrast, thinks these are the key questions (read the full text of his prepared statement here):

Was the well properly designed? Was the well properly cemented? Were there problems with the well casing? Were all appropriate tests run on the cement and casings?

Newman, who will say he felt "compelled to respond" to some of the speculation about the cause of the accident, makes it clear how central BP (the "Operator") was to everything:

The Operator selects a driller (in this case, Transocean), which provides a vessel (called a "rig") from which drilling operations are performed.... The Operator's well plan dictates the manner in which the drilling is to occur, including the location, the path, the depth, the process and the testing. The drill bits, which are selected by the Operator, are supplied by another sub-contractor.


A key element of the drilling process is drilling mud, a heavy fluid manufactured to the Operator's specifications. ...

In its well plan, the Operator specifies the diameter and strength of each casing segment, purchases the casing, and dictates how it will be cemented in place....

After drilling is concluded, yet another area of expertise comes into play. The cementing sub-contractor is responsible for encasing the well in cement, for putting a temporary cement plug in the top of the well, and for ensuring the integrity of the cement.... The cementing process is dictated by the Operator's well plan, and the testing of the cement on the Deepwater Horizon was performed by the cement contractor (Haliburton in this instance) as specified and directed by BP.

As for possible causes of the explosion itself, Transocean's Newman says, look to Halliburton:

What is most unusual about the explosion in this case is that it occurred after the well construction process was essentially finished. Drilling had been completed on April 17, and the well had been sealed with cement (to be reopened by the Operator at a later date if the Operator chose to put the well into production). ...


Indeed, at the time of the explosion, the rig crew, at the direction of the Operator, was in the process of displacing drilling mud For that reason, the one thing we know with certainty is that on the evening of April 20, there was a sudden, catastrophic failure of the cement, the casing, or both. Therein lies the root cause of this occurrence; without a disastrous failure of one of those elements, the explosion could not have occurred.

Newman even goes so far as to call all the attention now being given to the blowout preventer -- the key fail-safe -- "somewhat ironic".

That's because "at the time of the explosion, the drilling process was complete. The well had been sealed with casing and cement, and within a few days, the [blowout preventers] would have been removed. At this point, the well barriers -- the cementing and the casing - were responsible for controlling any pressure from the reservoir."

Halliburton's Probert (read the full text of his prepared statement here) explains that his company was contracted by BP "to perform a variety of services." And he explains, in an "important statement of disclosure":

Halliburton, as a service provider to the well owner, is contractually bound to comply with the well owner's instructions on all matters relating to the performance of all work-related activities. It is also important to understand the roles and responsibilities of the various parties involved in the construction of a well. The construction of a deep water well is a complex operation involving the performance of numerous tasks by multiple parties led by the well owner's representative, who has the ultimate authority for decisions on how and when various activities are conducted...


There are many external factors that impact the design and execution of a cement job. These include the variability in the hole geometry, relative location of hydrocarbon zones, hydrocarbon content and the prior condition of the wellbore and associated fluids as determined by the drilling fluid provider. Casing strings are typically run with devices to centralize the casing concentrically in the wellbore and prevent incomplete displacement of drilling fluid, or "channeling".

While every effort is made to complete a cement job with the highest levels of mechanical and hydraulic integrity, the above mentioned well conditions may prevent this.

And Probert insists that Halliburton wasn't doing any cementing when the rig burst into flames. "Halliburton had completed the cementing of the ninth and final production casing string in accordance with the well program," he says. The last thing that happened before the explosion was Transocean's doing:

We understand that the drilling contractor then proceeded to displace the riser with seawater prior to the planned placement of the final cement plug, which would have been installed inside the production string and enabled the planned temporary abandonment of the well. Prior to the point in the well construction plan that the Halliburton personnel would have set the final cement plug, the catastrophic incident occurred. As a result, the final cement plug was never set.


Halliburton is confident that the cementing work... was completed in accordance with the requirements of the well owner's well construction plan.
a href="" target="_blank">Link
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


yea they got Dr. forbes and vortex 2 with live footage...they had a perfect wedge tornado not to long ago. Great video right now.


it looks as though they are tracking another

2320 1 N SEMINOLE SEMINOLE OK 3524 9667 LARGE TORNADO REPORTED BY THE VORTEX TEAMS CROSSING JUST NORTH OF SEMINOLE. (OUN)
Strong line of severe weather moving east of Oklahoma City, OK.


Quoting WaterWitch11:


it looks as though they are tracking another

2320 1 N SEMINOLE SEMINOLE OK 3524 9667 LARGE TORNADO REPORTED BY THE VORTEX TEAMS CROSSING JUST NORTH OF SEMINOLE. (OUN)

Poor Oklahoma is JUST GETTING HAMMERED. Hopefully everyone is safe, property/things can be replaced.

So far the OKC, OK met has said that there have been 20-25 tornadoes, and counting.
2264. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

Poor Oklahoma is JUST GETTING HAMMERED. Hopefully everyone is safe, property/things can be replaced.

So far the OKC, OK met has said that there have been 20-25 tornadoes, and counting.
Isnt this more activity then the people at the S.P.C. expected? They said high risk of tornadoes, but not this many.
Holy cow! Watching Jim Cantore and some of that TWC coverage of the tornadoes. 6 or 8 vortices in that video clip of the highway and some idiot in a car is just cruising right into it. DOH! Awesome footage though! Surprised Oz isn't tooling around there...
Horrible, A night in my record books.

Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana get ready. All you guys are next.



Quoting hydrus:
Isnt this more activity then they at the S.P.C. expected? They said high risk of tornadoes, but not this many.

That 20-25 is the count per the meteorologist in OKC, OK. There will be many more, the total should be about 50 total separate tornadoes.
2269. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

That 20-25 is the count per the meteorologist in OKC, OK. There will be many more, the total should be about 50 total separate tornadoes.
This is just worse than I expected. Is there any signs of it letting up?
"Oil execs will point fingers at each other"

Yea well, I'm pointing a finger at all them!
Quoting hydrus:
This is just worse than I expected. Is there any signs of it letting up?

Probably will be firing off tornadoes until 10PM-12Midnight, then things will slowly ramp down.
On Sunday, it snowed over much of Southern Ontario. The snow soon melted by midday, but not before about 5 cm (2 in) fell in some areas. These storms tracking across the Midwest appear to be getting stronger, and the blog is quite active.
darkness falls with it comes the dreaded night storms
2275. snotly
Tornadoes, Volcanoes, Stocks up and down, Oil Spills, extreme SST. if that weren't enough, the GFS is forecasting some activity in the Caribbean 10 days out, just south of Cuba. I think the shear should keep it from doing any real damage.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_pres_10d.html

Looks like OK city might get another shot of thunderstorms later in the week

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/4d/gfsx_pres_4d.html
It's not getting better. 113 Total reports, 33 tornado reports.

2277. help4u
Don't forget about Nashville floods.
2278. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
darkness falls with it comes the dreaded night storms
It is really freaky when they hit at night.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Poor Oklahoma is JUST GETTING HAMMERED. Hopefully everyone is safe, property/things can be replaced.

So far the OKC, OK met has said that there have been 20-25 tornadoes, and counting.


this outbreak is horrible and the thought of the people in the line of fire, having to go through this through out the night. good god.

i was looking for you earlier. i was watching the iceland volcano last night and the light from the volcano was lighting up the canyon below.
Quoting hydrus:
It is really freaky when they hit at night.
Yes indeed, thank the Lord I don't live there.

The GFS is notorious for spitting out early season storms. Maybe the upgrade coming up will help curb that problem. Last year, it was forecasting storms in April…As we know, the first named storm occurred in August. Right now, not a fan of the long-range GFS.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


this outbreak is horrible and the thought of the people in the line of fire, having to go through this through out the night. good god.

i was looking for you earlier. i was watching the iceland volcano last night and the light from the volcano was lighting up the canyon below.

I watched "E" all last night from the time the sun went down till sunrise in Iceland. The view was totally awesome.She looks awesome now!

Then there were a cluster of quakes earlier today. Now watching this major tornado outbreak!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

The GFS is notorious for spitting out early season storms. Maybe the upgrade coming up will help curb that problem. Last year, it was forecasting storms in April…As we know, the first named storm occurred in August. Right now, not a fan of the long-range GFS.
Although its developing a system at 204 hours it seems quite reasonable because of the upward motion MJO. I think our first system will develop after May 22nd.
new line dev over c e tex ne ward
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



hey patrap,

those holes in keepers image remind me of those hot towers. are they similar?


lost vis now on IR
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wow.
2290. Patrap



Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response


Deepwater Horizon Response



o About Us
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+ Damage Claim Inquiry
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AUDIO RELEASE: Unified Area Command press briefing May 10, 2010



* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401





Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240









AUDIO RELEASE: Unified Area Command press briefing May 10, 2010

Download audio file by clicking HERE

ROBERT, La. - U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry, the federal on-scene coordinator, Doug Suttles, BP Chief Operating Officer, and Lars Herbst, MMS Regional Director of the Gulf of Mexico Region, hold a briefing here May, 10, 2010 to update the media and the public and to answer questions. In the briefing, members of the unified area command discussed several topics, including the oil spill clean-up efforts currently underway. U.S. Coast Guard audio clip by Petty Officer 3rd Class Cory J. Mendenhall.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow.


Since Andrew was a small storm in statue, we just received some squalls up here in Lake Worth and West Palm.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Since Andrew was a small storm in statue, we just received some squalls up here in Lake Worth and West Palm.
It looked real bad here in downtown.
2293. Patrap
Video: Ride along with Air Force crew spraying chemicals on Gulf oil spill
By The Times-Picayune
May 10, 2010, 7:03PM
Ride along with the crew of an Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft as they spray oil-dispersing chemicals in the Gulf of Mexico to combat the oil spill after the April 22 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig.

Air force sprays oil dispersant












Quoting WaterWitch11:


hey patrap,

those holes in keepers image remind me of those hot towers. are they similar?


pa-trap, you there?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It looked real bad here in downtown.


WTVJ put a VHS documentary about Andrew with all proceeds going to the recovery effort. The beginning of the VHS is memorable. It tracks Andrew as a tropical storm...up to a Cat. 1 to a Cat. 4 (at the time). The most disturbing part was when they interviewed people in Miami in the stores buying supplies, and some said they were not concerned.
NWS Norman, OK Enhanced Weather Page:
Link
Storm about to hit here...
<--- Andrew may be banned for even having the name and being on here...

1 death reported thus far in OK
they were warning about it all weekend, I'm glad people took the initiative and got ready
2300. Patrap
# 2294

The atmospheric mechanics that are driving the Meso-scale Complexes that are Spawning the Severe Weather tonight is a very different Type of Setup than a Cyclone with Hot towers.




The are many more qualified in that here to touch on the specifics than I though.

I have no formal Met training.
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Storm about to hit here...

Noticed that storm just west of Ft Worth, TX!!
I thought TWC did a really good job tonight.
I was blathering about how they cut to commercial when they would go live or hottie Cantore was just about to give us the newest warnings; but there was a good 45 mins of uninterupted weather-news and it was wonderful.
AP reported that 4 people are now dead in Oklahoma.
2304. P451
link to imagery


LA is in the upper left of the image. Oil slick takes up the right half of the image.

MODIS, earlier today.



Still going.....

2306. P451
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Still going.....


Looks like it's gonna make it to Arkansas before dissipating.
Quoting Ameister12:
AP reported that 4 people are now dead in Oklahoma.

KFOR-TV OKC, OK meteorologist is stating today's outbreak ranks number 2 after the May 3, 1999 outbreak, due to the number of individual strong tornadoes and damage path across many portions of the state!
2309. hydrus
Quoting BaltOCane:
I thought TWC did a really good job tonight.
I was blathering about how they cut to commercial when they would go live or hottie Cantore was just about to give us the newest warnings; but there was a good 45 mins of uninterupted weather-news and it was wonderful.
You are right. Congrats to the people at T.W.C.
The tail of the storms Northwest of Dallas/ Ft. Worth are backbuilding FAST!!
I 100% agree on how good TWC did this evening. I bet their coverage really helped save many lives.
Quoting hydrus:
You are right. Congrats to the people at T.W.C.

Maybe they were paying attention to all of the wonderful feedback about their movies during the nado outbreak last week...
Quoting seajunkie:
The tail of the storms Northwest of Dallas/ Ft. Worth are backbuilding FAST!!

The cap killed the first few cells, we shall see what happens to that "tail"!!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Maybe they were paying attention to all of the wonderful feedback about their movies during the nado outbreak last week...


Either that, or it simply isn't Friday night...
Quoting tornadofan:


Either that, or it simply isn't Friday night...

you are correct, I may be giving too much credit.
2316. hydrus
Quoting atmoaggie:

Maybe they were paying attention to all of the wonderful feedback about their movies during the nado outbreak last week...
Imagine the feedback they would receive if they were showing The Avengers tonight.
The very long tracked tornado is heading into Arkansas.
2318. xcool
2o Days until Hurricane
I'm gonna call it a day.

Good night everyone!
Reports thus far:

Have a good night.
Lena Horne passed away yesterday:

Hello guys After my grandfather funeral i thought this day couldnt get any worse and now i look on here and there was a tornado in moore and norman and surrounding areas and also 4 fatalities i feel for the families that lost loved ones today and my they rest in peace. im home alone and feel terrible i know i said that ill be leaving but i cant this place has a special place in my heart and you guys are so nice and thats what i need right now sorry for this post as i had to speak my mind ill be better but it will take time.
2324. aquak9
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hello guys After my grandfather funeral i thought this day couldnt get any worse and now i look on here and there was a tornado in moore and norman and surrounding areas and also 4 fatalities i feel for the families that lost loved ones today and my they rest in peace. im home alone and feel terrible i know i said that ill be leaving but i cant this place has a special place in my heart and you guys are so nice and thats what i need right now sorry for this post as i had to speak my mind ill be better but it will take time.


sweetheart...i send you big hugs. ♥
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hello guys After my grandfather funeral i thought this day couldnt get any worse and now i look on here and there was a tornado in moore and norman and surrounding areas and also 4 fatalities i feel for the families that lost loved ones today and my they rest in peace. im home alone and feel terrible i know i said that ill be leaving but i cant this place has a special place in my heart and you guys are so nice and thats what i need right now sorry for this post as i had to speak my mind ill be better but it will take time.

Hang in there Alex, we all love ya here. We will all keep you in our prayers.
Denton County Texas now under a tornado Watch until midnight.

I can see the cell headed this way, lots of lightning.

We now have a steady inflow toward the cell.
Thanks guys man its really hard to leave this site its like this site pulls you back in its like a black hole that you cant get out but that is good!
Bordo, the inversion is supposed to weaken as the evening progresses. East Texas better batten down.
KFOR-TV OKC, OK has counted 26 individual tornadoes in OK from 5PM-present.
Quoting seajunkie:
Bordo, the inversion is supposed to weaken as the evening progresses. East Texas better batten down.

Fantastic!!!
2332. txjac
Alex, hang in there. I know what you mean about this website, feels like you know these people for some odd reason. My positive thoughts and prayers are with you and your family through this difficult time
2333. msphar
El Nino - Give it up already! I like snow but this is ridiculous. It snowed again this afternoon. I'm gettiong tired of this nino season. It time to throw the baby out with the bath water...


as the first pulls e ne the second is diving se from nw cal rtn flow detected over far s sw tex nw ward current threat decreases soon as second system overtakes the wake of the first
Quoting txjac:
Alex, hang in there. I know what you mean about this website, feels like you know these people for some odd reason. My positive thoughts and prayers are with you and your family through this difficult time
Yeah it does feel like you know them for a very long time especially if you were lurking for five years like i did and others have.
Alex, you are so sweet, I hope you feel better soon. I know what it is like to the lose a love one. You have all of my prayers
This map keeps on getting scarier and scarier.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


as the first pulls e ne the second is diving se from nw cal rtn flow detected over far s sw tex nw ward current threat decreases soon as second system overtakes the wake of the first

Later this week, there will be another threat of severe weather.
Evening everybody. Sorry to see Lena Horne passed... she was one classy dame, and a great singer.

Also sorry to hear about the tornado deaths. One always hopes no one dies amidst all the destruction... :o(

Not much to report... the SST map above indicates rising temps, and the air temps are right in line. Finally beginning to feel like May here... with a vengeance.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Later this week, there will be another threat of severe weather.
same area as today maybe a little further south know more after midnight here is day 3 outlook

2341. Grothar
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Yeah it does feel like you know them for a very long time especially if you were lurking for five years like i did and others have.


Hope you're doing better Alex. Hope those words helped.
Bordo,

The cell to the Northwest of Denton looks like it may move due East and skirt the northern county line.

We'll see. Denton is still under a tornado watch till midnight.
Quoting seajunkie:
Bordo,

The cell to the Northwest of Denton looks like it may move due East and skirt the northern county line.

We'll see. Denton is still under a tornado watch till midnight.

Keep an eye on that cell. It has been getting very windy all of a sudden over the last hour or so!


threat has diminish
Grayson County Texas now under a Tornado WARNING.

Rotation detected by NWS.

Storms are headed due East.
Bordo,

That cell is dropping down into Denton County and touching the Northern part of City limits.

Cantorri just stated that the OKC storms were practically "unchasable" due to them moving so fast. That is scary.
Quoting seajunkie:
Grayson County Texas now under a Tornado WARNING.

Rotation detected by NWS.

Storms are headed due East.

NE TX into SW AR northward will be under the gun for a few hrs, then things will wind down.
2348. xcool



Quoting seajunkie:
Bordo,

That cell is dropping down into Denton County and touching the Northern part of City limits.

Cantorri just stated that the OKC storms were practically "unchasable" due to them moving so fast. That is scary.

Storms were being propelled by the Jet Stream at about 50-60MPH, that is hauling!!
2350. hydrus
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
This map keeps on getting scarier and scarier.


Yeah, especially when its May 10th.
2351. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

Storms were being propelled by the Jet Stream at about 50-60MPH, that is hauling!!
I saw some hit 90mph. And it is not an exaggeration.;)


low level rtn flow from deep s tex movin nw ward cutting off flow from west behind front from today as a system drops down se ward from n ca you can see the low level warm rtn flow as dark shadow area movin nw over s tex
Quoting hydrus:
I saw some hit 90mph. And it is not an exaggeration.;)

Well, SPC called this one very well. Poor NWS offices in Norman, OK got hit by strong straight-line winds of 103MPH, several windows were blown out.

KFOR-TV meteorologist stated that OK had between 26-35 individual tornadoes tonight.
Good evening all! :)

I think there is a good chance South Florida will be hit with a major hurricane this year. Don't know where though. The waters are certainly boiling.
2355. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, SPC called this one very well. Poor NWS offices in Norman, OK got hit by strong straight-line winds of 103MPH, several windows were blown out.

KFOR-TV meteorologist stated that OK had between 26-35 individual tornadoes tonight.
I hope they do not find anymore fatalities. So much damage though..:{
2356. hydrus
Quoting DrakoenG:
Good evening all! :)

I think there is a good chance South Florida will be hit with a major hurricane this year. Don't know where though. The waters are certainly boiling.
Why do you think South Florida will be hit by a major hurricane this year?
Bordo,

I think we are all in the clear. The Grayson County cell died over Sanger.

It should start winding down in Texas. The air is too stable and gets more so the farther South you go.
Quoting seajunkie:
Bordo,

I think we are all in the clear. The Grayson County cell died over Sanger.

It should start winding down in Texas. The air is too stable and gets more so the farther South you go.

Thank God for a strong capping inversion, or we'd be in huge trouble.

Looks like this outbreak is winding down nicely.
0620 PM TORNADO 1 N SEMINOLE 35.24N 96.67W
05/10/2010 SEMINOLE OK OTHER FEDERAL

LARGE TORNADO REPORTED BY THE VORTEX TEAMS CROSSING JUST
NORTH OF SEMINOLE. NEW INFORMATION...SEMINOLE COUNTY EM
REPORTS SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE AT SEMINOLE AIRPORT WITH
HANGARS DESTROYED.
Quoting hydrus:
Why do you think South Florida will be hit by a major hurricane this year?

Unusual warm water, low shear, no dry air. Can't be sure but I'm just confident that this year it will happen...

:)
Evening folks. Wild weather night in the CONUS fo sho. Glad Cantore got to go out and chase some tornadoes. Too bad about the casualties. Just bad luck it seems.
Farther east...too early for anything from Cape Verde to develop but 456 made a good point today that the SST's are warmer higher up than they were in '05, including warmer just about everywhere else as compared to this time then.

Watching the Andrew UTube WPG posted made me decide to buy some more of those plastic cartons with lids on them. Just too many odds in favor of getting smacked with a big one this year. Pitiful what's left if and when that does happen, but those big plastic cartons with tight lids can sure help.
I sure hope this year isn't going to be real bad, but so far nobody seems to think it won't.
Goodnight and sorry for folks in harm's way on this stormy night!
0533 PM TORNADO 2 SE NORMAN 35.20N 97.42W
05/10/2010 CLEVELAND OK BROADCAST MEDIA

FUNNEL CLOUD WAS ORIGINALLY OBSERVED DESCENDING RAPIDLY
AT 532 PM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER BUILDING.
DAMAGE AND TOUCHDOWN REPORTED JUST EAST OF THE BUILDING
ALONG HIGHWAY 9. TORNADO THEN GREW IN SIZE...SIGNIFICANT
AND LARGE TORNADO STILL ON THE GROUND CAUSING DAMAGE.
94P
o have noted that 03 blog has been un banned


Link
Quoting DrakoenG:

Unusual warm water, low shear, no dry air. Can't be sure but I'm just confident that this year it will happen...

:)


Of course it could be 2004 all over again and completely miss Miami Fort Lauderdale. Florida on the whole will be a punching bag.

Eyjafjallajokull
Photo credit -- Gudmundur Eyjolfsson

Link

2368. Patrap


Is the cure worse than the disease?

As the wait for a major oil landfall continues, there are new concerns over the still growing mess in the Gulf. Experts are now concerned that one of the so-called 'solutions' to fight the oil could be spreading another toxic mess.
2369. Patrap
The dispersal chemical used is Banned in Europe..

Type: Dispersant (Corexit 9500/9527)
Primary Use: Nearshore/Offshore



Corexit 9500-Dispersal Agent BP is using in the Gulf


Corexit 9500-Dispersal Agent BP is using in the Gulf
Quote

Gulf Oil Spill: BP Trying To Hide Millions of Gallons of Toxic Oil?
BP Embraces Exxons Toxic Dispersant, Ignores Safer Alternative
It has been confirmed that the dispersal agent being used by BP and the government is Corexit 9500, a solvent originally developed by Exxon and now manufactured by Nalco Holding Company of Naperville, IL. Their stock took a sharp jump, up more than 18% at its highest point of the day today, after it was announced that their product is the one being used in the Gulf. Nalcos CEO, Erik Frywald, expressed their commitment to helping the people and environment of the Gulf Coast recover as rapidly as possible.

It may be that the best way to help would be to remove their product from the fray. Take a look at some of the facts about Corexit 9500:

A report written by Anita George-Ares and James R. Clark for Exxon Biomedical Sciences, Inc. entitled Acute Aquatic Toxicity of Three Corexit Products: An Overview states that Corexit 9500, Corexit 9527, and Corexit 9580 have moderate toxicity to early life stages of fish, crustaceans and mollusks (LC50 or EC50 1.6 to 100 ppm*). It goes on to say that decreasing water temperatures in lab tests showed decreased toxicity, a lowered uptake of the dispersant. Unfortunately, were going to be seeing an increase in temperatures, not a decrease. Amongst the other caveats is that the study is species-specific, that other animals may be more severely affected, silver-sided fish amongst them.

Oil is toxic at 11 ppm while Corexit 9500 is toxic at only 2.61 ppm; Corexit 9500 is four times as toxic as the oil itself. Sure, a lot less of it is being introduced, but thats still a flawed logical perspective, because its not a lesser of two evils scenario. BOTH are going into the ocean water.

The lesser of two evils seems to be a product called Dispersit, manufactured by Polychem, a division of U.S. Polychemical Corporation. In comparison, water-based Dispersit is toxic at 7.9-8.2 ppm; Dispersit holds about one third of the toxicity that Corexit 9500 presents. Dispersit is a much less harmful water-based product which is both EPA approved and the U.S. Coast Guards NCP list.

So why isnt it being used?
Quoting Chicklit:

Eyjafjallajokull
Photo credit -- Gudmundur Eyjolfsson

Link



I have an Auntie in the UK/Europe at the moment. I hope this doesn't cause anymore chaos to air traffic like it did a few weeks ago.
Quoting Skyepony:
94P


Not much to it really.






Hi Aussie...I had been thinking of visiting Germany in June but have had a change of mind.
Certainly cannot afford to be stranded. On the Eruptions blog there is a lot of good conversation including this comment:

64
Peter I agree, but come, let us share a happy thought: Think of all the science this eruption will result in once it's over. From the potentially paradigm-shifting bolus propagation to "Effects of Ash Propagation on the Western European Socio-Economic Structure". "Interaction of Eruption Plumes with External Sources of Water; Snow, Ice, Steam and Clouds". "Eruptive Behaviour of Icelandic Volcanoes In Relation to Geolocical Position". "The Meteorology of Volcanic Eruptions; Tropospheric Dispersal of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide from the 2010 Eyjafjallajkull Volcanic Eruption".

I am positive that a score of young scientists will win their doctor's laurels from the science made possible. And that Peter, is something for us older men to rejoice in!

Posted by: Henrik, Swe | May 10, 2010 12:23 PM

This reminds me of the conversation last night between our young up and coming scientists on this blog. As Henrik says, it gives something for us older men (and women) to rejoice in.

Here's the link to Dr. Erik Klemetti's Eruptions blog in case you don't already have it: Eruptions

Also, here's the link to BBC weather, which should give you the latest news on the airspace closures (if any). BBC
1" of snow so far
Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
150 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010

INZ021-028>030-035>037-043>047-051>054-060>063-067>071-110700-
BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HENDRICKS-
JACKSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-
PARKE-PUTNAM-SULLIVAN-TIPPECANOE-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEDFORD...BLOOMINGTON...CRAWFORDSVILLE...
FRANKFORT...INDIANAPOLIS...LAFAYETTE...SEYMOUR...TERRE HAUTE...
VINCENNES
150 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010

.NOW...
AT 150 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF TERRE HAUTE
AND VINCENNES. THESE STORMS WERE MOVE VERY QUICKLY NORTHEAST
AROUND 60 MPH AND WILL REACH ROCKVILLE AROUND 210 AM AND
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE AROUND 3 AM. RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH AN HOUR WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING A QUARTER
INCH OR MORE. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

$$

MK




Quoting tornadodude:
Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
150 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010

INZ021-028>030-035>037-043>047-051>054-060>063-067>071-110700-
BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HENDRICKS-
JACKSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-
PARKE-PUTNAM-SULLIVAN-TIPPECANOE-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEDFORD...BLOOMINGTON...CRAWFORDSVILLE...
FRANKFORT...INDIANAPOLIS...LAFAYETTE...SEYMOUR...TERRE HAUTE...
VINCENNES
150 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010

.NOW...
AT 150 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF TERRE HAUTE
AND VINCENNES. THESE STORMS WERE MOVE VERY QUICKLY NORTHEAST
AROUND 60 MPH AND WILL REACH ROCKVILLE AROUND 210 AM AND
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE AROUND 3 AM. RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH AN HOUR WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING A QUARTER
INCH OR MORE. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

$$

MK






Sounds like a rocky ride up there. Stay safe Matt. :)
2372 Chicklit quoting a volcanic eruptions blog "...let us share a happy thought: Think of all the science this eruption will result in..."

On a related note, nearly all of the 600flights per day through this ocean area bounded by red* were canceled during the early days of the Eyjafjallajokull*eruptions, and might well be canceled or rerouted again in the future.
Now consider that the presence of contrails are believed to lead to cooler days and even warmer nights, averaging to a warmer 24hour period. Then contemplate the effect of a lack of contrails upon ocean and air temperatures below, and upon the regional high and low air pressure patterns.

* The first link leads to a GreatCircle mapper. Unfortunately that site's coding and this site's coding do not play together well. So ya gotta type in
mmk-bos, lis-yqb
then click on Map to see the area I am referring to.
What a day, what a crazy day. Posted earlier that I was in Oklahoma city wanting to do some chasing but wasn't fully prepared for it. Still made it work though, and it was my 1st official chase.

It's quite hard to explain how I felt and everything I experienced today. 1st time ever hearing a tornado siren in person. 1st time being under supercells. 1st time chasing. 1st time seeing a flipped over 18 wheeler. I've never seen skies so turbulent before. When the storms 1st hit okc I decided to chase after the northern storm. Wrong decision. I missed the chance of chasing that probably EF3, but I probably wouldn't have caught up to it since that twister or another one transversed I-40 at Choctaw Rd, destroying the gas stations on both sides.

I ended up looping down into the big cell a bit East of 177 while the tornado was in Seminole and looped back in I-40, only to be facing the last supercell head on as it came down the road. That was surreal. News 4 chopper was flying overhead and they were saying how the area I was in was under a tornado warning, how the mesocyclone was there and a hook was forming on the radar. The inflow was easily 50-60 mph. Pulled over to observe the storm come at me and while the clouds were very turbulent, nothing that resembled a funnel appeared. Once it passed over I returned back to my friends house, but passed Choctaw Rd where the tornado touched down. Absolutely surreal to see tornado damage like that in person for the 1st time. Now I've seen EF0 damage on Long Island about 2 years back, but nothing like this. I felt like I was on a movie set. Overall the whole day seemed fake, for a lack of a better word. Seeing footage and stories of tornadoes for 29 years, and then when you're in tornado alley for the 1st time ever you get a tornado outbreak. Unbelievable. Everything happened so fast and it just didn't seem real. Anyways I'm rambling, need sleep and finish my drive to Texas.
2378. IKE
Looks all clear the next 10 to possibly 14 days in the tropical Atlantic.
I have a new policy anything politics is ignored Al Gore, Rush, Democrat, Republican, Liberal, Conservative, or any other obvious political debate or jab I not going to be seen by me.
Quoting Patrap:
The dispersal chemical used is Banned in Europe..

Type: Dispersant (Corexit 9500/9527)
Primary Use: Nearshore/Offshore



Corexit 9500-Dispersal Agent BP is using in the Gulf


Corexit 9500-Dispersal Agent BP is using in the Gulf
Quote

Gulf Oil Spill: BP Trying To Hide Millions of Gallons of Toxic Oil?
BP Embraces Exxons Toxic Dispersant, Ignores Safer Alternative
It has been confirmed that the dispersal agent being used by BP and the government is Corexit 9500, a solvent originally developed by Exxon and now manufactured by Nalco Holding Company of Naperville, IL. Their stock took a sharp jump, up more than 18% at its highest point of the day today, after it was announced that their product is the one being used in the Gulf. Nalcos CEO, Erik Frywald, expressed their commitment to helping the people and environment of the Gulf Coast recover as rapidly as possible.

It may be that the best way to help would be to remove their product from the fray. Take a look at some of the facts about Corexit 9500:

A report written by Anita George-Ares and James R. Clark for Exxon Biomedical Sciences, Inc. entitled Acute Aquatic Toxicity of Three Corexit Products: An Overview states that Corexit 9500, Corexit 9527, and Corexit 9580 have moderate toxicity to early life stages of fish, crustaceans and mollusks (LC50 or EC50 1.6 to 100 ppm*). It goes on to say that decreasing water temperatures in lab tests showed decreased toxicity, a lowered uptake of the dispersant. Unfortunately, were going to be seeing an increase in temperatures, not a decrease. Amongst the other caveats is that the study is species-specific, that other animals may be more severely affected, silver-sided fish amongst them.

Oil is toxic at 11 ppm while Corexit 9500 is toxic at only 2.61 ppm; Corexit 9500 is four times as toxic as the oil itself. Sure, a lot less of it is being introduced, but thats still a flawed logical perspective, because its not a lesser of two evils scenario. BOTH are going into the ocean water.

The lesser of two evils seems to be a product called Dispersit, manufactured by Polychem, a division of U.S. Polychemical Corporation. In comparison, water-based Dispersit is toxic at 7.9-8.2 ppm; Dispersit holds about one third of the toxicity that Corexit 9500 presents. Dispersit is a much less harmful water-based product which is both EPA approved and the U.S. Coast Guards NCP list.

So why isnt it being used?



Corexit 9500 is cheaper, it's BP's forte, no surprise at all.
2382. pottery
Quoting IKE:
Looks all clear the next 10 to possibly 14 days in the tropical Atlantic.

Good Morning.
Yeah, it has dried up a lot!
BBL
2383. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

Good Morning.
Yeah, it has dried up a lot!
BBL


Morning Pottery, you are up early.
Tar ball stew anyone?
Dry as a bone in my neck of the SEFL woods, no rain in the foreseeable future.
2386. pottery
SO!!. Anyone want to take a stab at why the rains that were forecast for the Caribbean islands, due to MJO etc. did not happen?
Good morning from Puerto Rico. Pottery ,distint from many of the islands in the Caribbean,PR has seen plenty of rain so far this year (over 22 inches) Dont know the answer to your question,but maybe the experts here can sheed light about that.
2388. SLU
Quoting pottery:
SO!!. Anyone want to take a stab at why the rains that were forecast for the Caribbean islands, due to MJO etc. did not happen?


Yeah, over the last couple of weeks the GFS has been predicting at least 50 - 100mm per 7 day period over the Eastern Caribbean. So far the official tally for St. Lucia is 10.8mm for the 1st 10 days of the month .........

But to be fair to the rain, we got about 150mm (3 times the average amount) of rain in April which basically extinguished the bushfires and the drought. Everywhere is already sooo green, you'd never believe we just came out of one of the most severe droughts in the island's modern day history.
2389. pottery


BP is facing "Thunder" over the Oil Problems in the Gulf. This is BP Renegades steel orchestra...BP sponsors the band.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I have a new policy anything politics is ignored Al Gore, Rush, Democrat, Republican, Liberal, Conservative, or any other obvious political debate or jab I not going to be seen by me.


so 90 percent of this blog is gone.
Quoting leftovers:
another "gay hater" bites the dust in s florida. what is it with these fundamentalist politicians? are they all fags? at least my old housemate accepted his position and did not hurt anyone but himself by being a homo. happy weather


That said this was ridiculous and has been flagged
This came out yesterday...

****

Workers, who did basic pressure testing on the seal, didn’t perform a second and more expensive test to ensure that BP Plc’s Macondo well was properly plugged, said Robert Bea, a University of California Berkeley engineering professor.
Bea, who held engineering jobs at Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the 1960s and 1970s and later consulted for BP, said the seal was one of several breakdowns that contributed to the Deepwater Horizon explosion. The April 20 blast killed 11 workers and set off a leak that continues to spew an estimated 5,000 barrels of oil a day into the Gulf. The Deepwater Horizon, which London- based BP rented from Transocean Ltd., sank two days later.
The additional seal test would have taken more time, Bea said. He said Shell typically did that test during his years at The Hague-based company.
2393. IKE
2392...making billions and penny-pinching. Idiots.

2394. P451
12 Hour IR Loop = ending 730am ET




Today's outlook.

Valid 12z.
2396. P451
A split second ago what I posted was current on the SPC pages.

I'll change the post.
Quoting P451:
A split second ago what I posted was current on the SPC pages.

I'll change the post.


No problem, happens to me all the time.
2398. P451
The big picture...last 12 hours WV.

Quoting AussieStorm:


I have an Auntie in the UK/Europe at the moment. I hope this doesn't cause anymore chaos to air traffic like it did a few weeks ago.
They are great photo's on that link.How are things in Parramatta today Aus?
2400. IKE
8 Reasons Why The Pain From The Gulf Of Mexico Oil Spill Is Going To Be Felt For Decades

From the article....

"It kind of makes you wonder what in the world we were doing drilling for oil down there in the first place.".....


Exactly.
Good Morning........Just heard on NPR that Halliburton, Transocean, and BP are pointing the finger at each other for the accident in Senate Hearings starting today........Easy solution.......Split the cleanup costs three ways.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thank God for a strong capping inversion, or we'd be in huge trouble.

Looks like this outbreak is winding down nicely.


Another active period coming, but not as active as yesterdays. Our cap will break this time...(Thursday - Saturday Night/Sunday)
Also note the incredibly cosmic connection between Halliburton and the "Gulf"; major contractor for the "Gulf" war; cleanup contracts after Katrina in the "Gulf", and now, the "Gulf" oil spill.......Looks like they have a lock on the "Gulf" if you ask me....... :)
2404. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning........Just heard on NPR that Halliburton, Transocean, and BP are pointing the finger at each other for the accident in Senate Hearings starting today........Easy solution.......Split the cleanup costs three ways.


Split the lawsuits they're going to lose 3 ways. Split the reimbursement of lost wages for those who now can't work, 3 ways.

It's going to destroy this areas most profitable income.

What a total disaster.
Good morning all
Quoting IKE:


Split the lawsuits they're going to lose 3 ways. Split the reimbursement of lost wages for those who now can't work, 3 ways.

It's going to destroy this areas most profitable income.

What a total disaster.


The whole thing stinks as far as Halliburton is concerned.....As you know many prominent US politicians and defence and intelligence officials are on the company "take" as board directors, shareholders, and consultants which is how they are involved in so many government "no bid" contracts and provide services worldwide......They just need to pony up on this one and tighten their belts like everyone else..........Sorry folks; end of political diatribe from me.....Praying now for the vitims and families of the tornadoes...
Quoting Weather456:
Good morning all


Good Morning 456
good Morning
Not much going on across the Atlantic due to the downward pulse of the MJO. Lots of dry sinking air dominates the region providing fair conditions Despite this downward pulse, the ITCZ is convective. Most models agree on an upward pulse and increase in moisture later this month.





Much of the dry air is above 850 mb so areas across the region may get an isolated shower or two. Thunderstorm will occur if the enough heat is added to the low levels to keep convective currents going upwards.



2411. Levi32
Good morning.

My 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is now up in my blog.

For those who read, I hope you enjoy.
2413. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

Dr. Masters intends to put me on as a featured blogger this season...soon. I wanted to take the opportunity to establish some ground rules.

Per Dr. Masters email:
Of course, we would expect you to conduct yourself in a professional manner, as if you were a representative of our company, in all of your posts, comments, and wumail exchanges.


When visiting my site this season, it will be appreciated that posts be made in good taste, bearing in mind Jeff's statement. I don't mind if you disagree with me on my forecasts or views. Just make sure you're civil, and professional. Anything less, and you will be banned from my blog...permanently!

Thanks gang!


Hey Storm congratulations! You certainly deserve it :)
2414. aquak9
congrats, StormW! I try to get your outlooks faxed to me at work- no net access.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

Dr. Masters intends to put me on as a featured blogger this season...soon. I wanted to take the opportunity to establish some ground rules.

Per Dr. Masters email:
Of course, we would expect you to conduct yourself in a professional manner, as if you were a representative of our company, in all of your posts, comments, and wumail exchanges.


When visiting my site this season, it will be appreciated that posts be made in good taste, bearing in mind Jeff's statement. I don't mind if you disagree with me on my forecasts or views. Just make sure you're civil, and professional. Anything less, and you will be banned from my blog...permanently!

Thanks gang!


congrats
2416. bassis
Hey levi. Maybe it's my computer. but its really hard to read the way it displays.
2417. Levi32
Quoting bassis:
Hey levi. Maybe it's my computer. but its really hard to read the way it displays.


It likely is if you're using Internet Explorer. The blogs have issues with that browser. I'll be trying to put it into a PDF for those who have trouble viewing it online.
2418. bassis
Congrats storm!!!
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

Dr. Masters intends to put me on as a featured blogger this season...soon. I wanted to take the opportunity to establish some ground rules.

Per Dr. Masters email:
Of course, we would expect you to conduct yourself in a professional manner, as if you were a representative of our company, in all of your posts, comments, and wumail exchanges.


When visiting my site this season, it will be appreciated that posts be made in good taste, bearing in mind Jeff's statement. I don't mind if you disagree with me on my forecasts or views. Just make sure you're civil, and professional. Anything less, and you will be banned from my blog...permanently!

Thanks gang!


Congrats Storm! About time I would say and well deserved.
2422. bassis
I use a Mac at home and have no problems. I keep this page up all day at work to check in. I never miss a day
i thought you were already a featured blogger! :)
I look foward to reading your posts stormw. I have always respected your opinions and forcasts. Thanks in advance!
drew
Quoting StormW:


Do yourself a favor...switch to FireFox...I did...I'll never go back tO IE!

Inept Explorer...
2426. Levi32
Quoting bassis:
Hey levi. Maybe it's my computer. but its really hard to read the way it displays.
Quoting Levi32:


It likely is if you're using Internet Explorer. The blogs have issues with that browser. I'll be trying to put it into a PDF for those who have trouble viewing it online.


Try this.
2427. beell
I don't mind if you disagree with me on my forecasts or views. Just make sure you're civil, and professional.
Some rules we all should follow!

Congratulations, Storm! A reasonable voice in a sea of noise is always a pleasure to hear!
2428. WxLogic
Good Morning...
2429. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:

Inept Explorer...


LOL... ohh boy.
XtremeHurricanes.com Live Hurricane Webcam UPDATE:

Yesterday, I added bluetooth compatibility to my Dell Mini-9 that broadcasts our live hurricane webcam.

My test of the new capability involved a bluetooth headset. The test went off without a hitch. My headset came across loud and clear on the live test broadcast I conducted yesterday.

Still to be determined is how long my bluetooth headset will stay powered up in such a configuration. This information I'll discover by this weekend will be most important, as it will be difficult to change headsets once we're in the eye-wall of a landfalling hurricane.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

I don't mind if you disagree with me on my forecasts or views.


I disagree that it is okay for me to disagree with you.
Congrats Storm!!! I always enjoy your post
2433. Levi32
A very nasty spring day is underway up here in Alaska. A 980mb low with deep tropical moisture connections moving up from the south over the Alaska Peninsula is creating a strong pressure gradient between itself and a high pressure ridge over western Canada. We're having a rather blustery day here with 30mph sustained winds out of the southeast with gusts exceeding 45mph, accompanied by moderate rainfall. This is pretty potent for a storm this late in the year, even by Alaskan standards.





Total Precipitable Water:

2434. lakeEFX
That's wonderful(or should I say wunderful) news Storm W.! Welcome back! P.S.- What's the weather going to be like next week for your area...we're going to be in your neck of the woods for vacation; fishing on Honeymoon Island.
i been testing firefox 3.7 wish will be re name firefox 4.0 i all so here that a beta is comeing out in june



i all so here that 4.0 will be vary vary fast
Quoting superpete:
They are great photo's on that link.How are things in Parramatta today Aus?

I'm just uploading sum pics from my Phone then I will post them into my Photo gallery and link them to here.
2437. Levi32
Dr. Masters has put a new blog up.
NEW BLOG EVERYONE AND GOOD MORNING :O)
!!!!!!!!!!NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2440. hydrus
Quoting pottery:
SO!!. Anyone want to take a stab at why the rains that were forecast for the Caribbean islands, due to MJO etc. did not happen?
I think part of it was due to the MJO. All that sinking air, plus occasional dry air masses moving into the Caribbean from the Atlantic dried up what moderate moisture was available.
I would think that a worst case scenario might be if the oil was a foot or so subsurface. It would not impede evapoation as much and may have a warming effect by absorbing sun heat. Add to that the wave dampening effects and I see a potential for pretty high wind speeds. I've been out at the beginning of gales (I was Coast Guard) and watched how the wind would be at a high speed before the waves built, then it would usually slow down a bit at the surface. Seemed that way to me, anyway.
Wonder if the salinity of the water gets affected ? That, too, would get odd.

This will be an interesting season, to be subtle about it.
Hi Jeff,
For a trip to the Bahamas July 2-5th should we worry about oil or hurricane activity? My research has led me to believe oil will not be a factor but I'm having a hard time with predicting any tropical weather disruptions. Can you help?